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Sample records for seasonal peak mortality

  1. Validation of inverse seasonal peak mortality in medieval plagues, including the Black Death, in comparison to modern Yersinia pestis-variant diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welford, Mark R; Bossak, Brian H

    2009-12-22

    Recent studies have noted myriad qualitative and quantitative inconsistencies between the medieval Black Death (and subsequent "plagues") and modern empirical Y. pestis plague data, most of which is derived from the Indian and Chinese plague outbreaks of A.D. 1900+/-15 years. Previous works have noted apparent differences in seasonal mortality peaks during Black Death outbreaks versus peaks of bubonic and pneumonic plagues attributed to Y. pestis infection, but have not provided spatiotemporal statistical support. Our objective here was to validate individual observations of this seasonal discrepancy in peak mortality between historical epidemics and modern empirical data. We compiled and aggregated multiple daily, weekly and monthly datasets of both Y. pestis plague epidemics and suspected Black Death epidemics to compare seasonal differences in mortality peaks at a monthly resolution. Statistical and time series analyses of the epidemic data indicate that a seasonal inversion in peak mortality does exist between known Y. pestis plague and suspected Black Death epidemics. We provide possible explanations for this seasonal inversion. These results add further evidence of inconsistency between historical plagues, including the Black Death, and our current understanding of Y. pestis-variant disease. We expect that the line of inquiry into the disputed cause of the greatest recorded epidemic will continue to intensify. Given the rapid pace of environmental change in the modern world, it is crucial that we understand past lethal outbreaks as fully as possible in order to prepare for future deadly pandemics.

  2. Validation of inverse seasonal peak mortality in medieval plagues, including the Black Death, in comparison to modern Yersinia pestis-variant diseases.

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    Mark R Welford

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Recent studies have noted myriad qualitative and quantitative inconsistencies between the medieval Black Death (and subsequent "plagues" and modern empirical Y. pestis plague data, most of which is derived from the Indian and Chinese plague outbreaks of A.D. 1900+/-15 years. Previous works have noted apparent differences in seasonal mortality peaks during Black Death outbreaks versus peaks of bubonic and pneumonic plagues attributed to Y. pestis infection, but have not provided spatiotemporal statistical support. Our objective here was to validate individual observations of this seasonal discrepancy in peak mortality between historical epidemics and modern empirical data. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compiled and aggregated multiple daily, weekly and monthly datasets of both Y. pestis plague epidemics and suspected Black Death epidemics to compare seasonal differences in mortality peaks at a monthly resolution. Statistical and time series analyses of the epidemic data indicate that a seasonal inversion in peak mortality does exist between known Y. pestis plague and suspected Black Death epidemics. We provide possible explanations for this seasonal inversion. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results add further evidence of inconsistency between historical plagues, including the Black Death, and our current understanding of Y. pestis-variant disease. We expect that the line of inquiry into the disputed cause of the greatest recorded epidemic will continue to intensify. Given the rapid pace of environmental change in the modern world, it is crucial that we understand past lethal outbreaks as fully as possible in order to prepare for future deadly pandemics.

  3. Seasonal variation in child mortality in rural Guinea-Bissau

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Bibi Uhre; Byberg, Stine; Aaby, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: In many African countries, child mortality is higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. We investigated the effect of season on child mortality by time periods, sex and age in rural Guinea-Bissau. Methods: Bandim health project follows children under-five in a health...

  4. Seasonal variation in child mortality in rural Guinea-Bissau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Bibi Uhre; Byberg, Stine; Aaby, Peter; Rodrigues, Amabelia; Benn, Christine Stabell; Fisker, Ane Baerent

    2017-07-01

    In many African countries, child mortality is higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. We investigated the effect of season on child mortality by time periods, sex and age in rural Guinea-Bissau. Bandim health project follows children under-five in a health and demographic surveillance system in rural Guinea-Bissau. We compared the mortality in the rainy season (June to November) between 1990 and 2013 with the mortality in the dry season (December to May) in Cox proportional hazards models providing rainy vs. dry season mortality rate ratios (r/d-mrr). Seasonal effects were estimated in strata defined by time periods with different frequency of vaccination campaigns, sex and age (<1 month, 1-11 months, 12-59 months). Verbal autopsies were interpreted using InterVa-4 software. From 1990 to 2013, overall mortality was declined by almost two-thirds among 81 292 children (10 588 deaths). Mortality was 51% (95% ci: 45-58%) higher in the rainy season than in the dry season throughout the study period. The seasonal difference increased significantly with age, the r/d-mrr being 0.94 (0.86-1.03) among neonates, 1.57 (1.46-1.69) in post-neonatal infants and 1.83 (1.72-1.95) in under-five children (P for same effect <0.001). According to the InterVa, malaria deaths were the main reason for the seasonal mortality difference, causing 50% of all deaths in the rainy season, but only if the InterVa included season of death, making the argument self-confirmatory. The mortality declined throughout the study, yet rainy season continued to be associated with 51% higher overall mortality. © 2017 The Authors. Tropical Medicine & International Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?

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    Kinney, Patrick L; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Tertre, Alain Le; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

    2015-06-01

    Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

  6. Seasonality in mortality and its relationship to temperature among the older population in Hanoi, Vietnam

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    Le Thi Thanh Xuan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Several studies have established a relationship between temperature and mortality. In particular, older populations have been shown to be vulnerable to temperature effects. However, little information exists on the temperature–mortality relationship in Vietnam. Objectives: This article aims to examine the monthly temperature–mortality relationship among older people in Hanoi, Vietnam, over the period between 2005 and 2010, and estimate seasonal patterns in mortality. Methods: We employed Generalized Additive Models, including smooth functions, to model the temperature–mortality relationships. A quasi-Poisson distribution was used to model overdispersion of death counts. Temporal trends, seasonality, and population size were adjusted for while estimating changes in monthly mortality over the study period. A cold month was defined as a month with a mean temperature below 19°C. Results: This study found that the high peak of mortality coincided with low temperatures in the month of February 2008, during which the mean temperature was the lowest in the whole study period. There was a significant relationship between mean monthly temperature and mortality among the older people (p<0.01. Overall, there was a significant decrease in the number of deaths in the year 2009 during the study period. There was a 21% increase in the number of deaths during the cold season compared to the warm season. The increase in mortality during the cold period was higher among females compared to males (female: IRR [incidence relative risk] =1.23; male: IRR=1.18. Conclusions: Cold temperatures substantially increased mortality among the older population in Hanoi, Vietnam, and there were gender differences. Necessary preventive measures are required to mitigate temperature effects with greater attention to vulnerable groups.

  7. Variation and seasonal patterns of suicide mortality in Finland and Sweden since the 1750s.

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    Holopainen, Jari; Helama, Samuli; Björkenstam, Charlotte; Partonen, Timo

    2013-11-01

    Suicide mortality varies in both the short and long term. Our study examines suicide mortality in Finland and Sweden from the 1750s until today. The aim of our study is to detect any seasonal peaks in suicide rates and examine their temporal evolution to suggest a mechanism that may explain such peaks. We acquired the study material from the Finnish and Swedish cause of death statistics (257,341 deaths by suicide) and the relevant population gender structure data. We then separately calculated the annual male and female suicide rates per 100,000 inhabitants. We analysed the suicide peaks, calculating factors of proportionality for the available data by dividing the suicide rates in the peak months (May and October) by the annual suicide rates. Suicide rates in Finland and Sweden peak twice a year. Both men and women in both countries most often commit suicide in May. There is another peak in October, with the exception of Finnish men. These suicide peaks coincide with a temperature increase in May and the biggest annual drop in temperature in October. We also observed a monotonic long-term change in the Swedish statistics, but not in the Finnish data. Our hypothesis is that seasonal variation in suicide rates may be caused by abrupt temperature changes twice a year that trigger the activity in brown adipose tissue and deepen depression. While the overall suicide mortality rates varied considerably, the monthly proportions in May did not. This finding suggests a routine factor underlying the spring peak in suicide mortality.

  8. When did HIV incidence peak in Harare, Zimbabwe? Back-calculation from mortality statistics.

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    Ben Lopman

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available HIV prevalence has recently begun to decline in Zimbabwe, a result of both high levels of AIDS mortality and a reduction in incident infections. An important component in understanding the dynamics in HIV prevalence is knowledge of past trends in incidence, such as when incidence peaked and at what level. However, empirical measurements of incidence over an extended time period are not available from Zimbabwe or elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. Using mortality data, we use a back-calculation technique to reconstruct historic trends in incidence. From AIDS mortality data, extracted from death registration in Harare, together with an estimate of survival post-infection, HIV incidence trends were reconstructed that would give rise to the observed patterns of AIDS mortality. Models were fitted assuming three parametric forms of the incidence curve and under nine different assumptions regarding combinations of trends in non-AIDS mortality and patterns of survival post-infection with HIV. HIV prevalence was forward-projected from the fitted incidence and mortality curves. Models that constrained the incidence pattern to a cubic spline function were flexible and produced well-fitting, realistic patterns of incidence. In models assuming constant levels of non-AIDS mortality, annual incidence peaked between 4 and 5% between 1988 and 1990. Under other assumptions the peak level ranged from 3 to 8% per annum. However, scenarios assuming increasing levels of non-AIDS mortality resulted in implausibly low estimates of peak prevalence (11%, whereas models with decreasing underlying crude mortality could be consistent with the prevalence and mortality data. HIV incidence is most likely to have peaked in Harare between 1988 and 1990, which may have preceded the peak elsewhere in Zimbabwe. This finding, considered alongside the timing and location of HIV prevention activities, will give insight into the decline of HIV prevalence in Zimbabwe.

  9. Four Weeks of Off-Season Training Improves Peak Oxygen Consumption in Female Field Hockey Players

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    Lindsey T. Funch; Erik Lind; Larissa True; Deborah Van Langen; John T. Foley; James F. Hokanson

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to examine the changes in peak oxygen consumption ( V ˙O2peak) and running economy (RE) following four-weeks of high intensity training and concurrent strength and conditioning during the off-season in collegiate female field hockey players. Fourteen female student-athletes (age 19.29 ± 0.91 years) were divided into two training groups, matched from baseline V ˙O2peak: High Intensity Training (HITrun; n = 8) and High Intensity Interval Training (HIIT; ...

  10. Seasonal variations in house dust mite influence the circadian peak expiratory flow amplitude

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, DS; vanderHeide, S; deReus, DM; Koeter, GH; vanAalderen, WMC; Meijer, G.

    1996-01-01

    The aim of the study was to investigate whether seasonal differences in house dust mite (HDM) allergen exposure influence the circadian peak expiratory flow (PEF) amplitude in asthmatic children. Asthmatic children (n = 25) with a solitary allergy to HDM were studied in spring and in autumn. All

  11. Shifts of growing-season precipitation peaks decrease soil respiration in a semiarid grassland.

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    Ru, Jingyi; Zhou, Yaqiong; Hui, Dafeng; Zheng, Mengmei; Wan, Shiqiang

    2018-03-01

    Changing precipitation regimes could have profound influences on carbon (C) cycle in the biosphere. However, how soil C release from terrestrial ecosystems responds to changing seasonal distribution of precipitation remains unclear. A field experiment was conducted for 4 years (2013-2016) to examine the effects of altered precipitation distributions in the growing season on soil respiration in a temperate steppe in the Mongolian Plateau. Over the 4 years, both advanced and delayed precipitation peaks suppressed soil respiration, and the reductions mainly occurred in August. The decreased soil respiration could be primarily attributable to water stress and subsequently limited plant growth (community cover and belowground net primary productivity) and soil microbial activities in the middle growing season, suggesting that precipitation amount in the middle growing season is more important than that in the early, late, or whole growing seasons in regulating soil C release in grasslands. The observations of the additive effects of advanced and delayed precipitation peaks indicate semiarid grasslands will release less C through soil respiratory processes under the projected seasonal redistribution of precipitation in the future. Our findings highlight the potential role of intra-annual redistribution of precipitation in regulating ecosystem C cycling in arid and semiarid regions. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Peak season plant activity shift towards spring is reflected by increasing carbon uptake by extratropical ecosystems.

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    Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Ooi, Ying W

    2018-05-01

    Climate change is lengthening the growing season of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical terrestrial ecosystems, but little is known regarding the timing and dynamics of the peak season of plant activity. Here, we use 34-year satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) observations and atmospheric CO 2 concentration and δ 13 C isotope measurements at Point Barrow (Alaska, USA, 71°N) to study the dynamics of the peak of season (POS) of plant activity. Averaged across extratropical (>23°N) non-evergreen-dominated pixels, NDVI data show that the POS has advanced by 1.2 ± 0.6 days per decade in response to the spring-ward shifts of the start (1.0 ± 0.8 days per decade) and end (1.5 ± 1.0 days per decade) of peak activity, and the earlier onset of the start of growing season (1.4 ± 0.8 days per decade), while POS maximum NDVI value increased by 7.8 ± 1.8% for 1982-2015. Similarly, the peak day of carbon uptake, based on calculations from atmospheric CO 2 concentration and δ 13 C data, is advancing by 2.5 ± 2.6 and 4.3 ± 2.9 days per decade, respectively. POS maximum NDVI value shows strong negative relationships (p POS days. Given that the maximum solar irradiance and day length occur before the average POS day, the earlier occurrence of peak plant activity results in increased plant productivity. Both the advancing POS day and increasing POS vegetation greenness are consistent with the shifting peak productivity towards spring and the increasing annual maximum values of gross and net ecosystem productivity simulated by coupled Earth system models. Our results further indicate that the decline in autumn NDVI is contributing the most to the overall browning of the northern high latitudes (>50°N) since 2011. The spring-ward shift of peak season plant activity is expected to disrupt the synchrony of biotic interaction and exert strong biophysical feedbacks on climate by modifying the surface albedo and energy budget. © 2017

  13. Forecasting Cool Season Daily Peak Winds at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

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    Barrett, Joe, III; Short, David; Roeder, William

    2008-01-01

    The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) for planning operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The morning outlook for peak speeds also begins the warning decision process for gusts ^ 35 kt, ^ 50 kt, and ^ 60 kt from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated that peak wind speeds are a challenging parameter to forecast during the cool season (October-April). The 45 WS requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. The tool must only use data available by 1200 UTC to support the issue time of the Planning Forecasts. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network, surface observations from the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and CCAFS upper-air soundings from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created multiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence, the temperature inversion depth, strength, and wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft. Six synoptic patterns were identified: 1) surface high near or over FL, 2) surface high north or east of FL, 3) surface high south or west of FL, 4) surface front approaching FL, 5) surface front across central FL, and 6) surface front across south FL. The following six predictors were selected: 1) inversion depth, 2) inversion strength, 3) wind gust factor, 4) synoptic weather pattern, 5) occurrence of

  14. Four Weeks of Off-Season Training Improves Peak Oxygen Consumption in Female Field Hockey Players

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    Lindsey T. Funch

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to examine the changes in peak oxygen consumption ( V ˙O2peak and running economy (RE following four-weeks of high intensity training and concurrent strength and conditioning during the off-season in collegiate female field hockey players. Fourteen female student-athletes (age 19.29 ± 0.91 years were divided into two training groups, matched from baseline V ˙O2peak: High Intensity Training (HITrun; n = 8 and High Intensity Interval Training (HIIT; n = 6. Participants completed 12 training sessions. HITrun consisted of 30 min of high-intensity running, while HIIT consisted of a series of whole-body high intensity Tabata-style intervals (75–85% of age predicted maximum heart rate for a total of four minutes. In addition to the interval training, the off-season training included six resistance training sessions, three team practices, and concluded with a team scrimmage. V ˙O2peak was measured pre- and post-training to determine the effectiveness of the training program. A two-way mixed (group × time ANOVA showed a main effect of time with a statistically significant difference in V ˙O2peak from pre- to post-testing, F(1, 12 = 12.657, p = 0.004, partial η2 = 0.041. Average (±SD V ˙O2peak increased from 44.64 ± 3.74 to 47.35 ± 3.16 mL·kg−1·min−1 for HIIT group and increased from 45.39 ± 2.80 to 48.22 ± 2.42 mL·kg−1·min−1 for HITrun group. Given the similar improvement in aerobic power, coaches and training staff may find the time saving element of HIIT-type conditioning programs attractive.

  15. Linear relationship between peak and season-long abundances in insects.

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    Ksenia S Onufrieva

    Full Text Available An accurate quantitative relationship between key characteristics of an insect population, such as season-long and peak abundances, can be very useful in pest management programs. To the best of our knowledge, no such relationship has yet been established. Here we establish a predictive linear relationship between insect catch Mpw during the week of peak abundance, the length of seasonal flight period, F (number of weeks and season-long cumulative catch (abundance A = 0.41MpwF. The derivation of the equation is based on several general assumptions and does not involve fitting to experimental data, which implies generality of the result. A quantitative criterion for the validity of the model is presented. The equation was tested using extensive data collected on captures of male gypsy moths Lymantria dispar (L. (Lepidoptera: Erebidae in pheromone-baited traps during 15 years. The model was also tested using trap catch data for two species of mosquitoes, Culex pipiens (L. (Diptera: Culicidae and Aedes albopictus (Skuse (Diptera: Culicidae, in Gravid and BG-sentinel mosquito traps, respectively. The simple, parameter-free equation approximates experimental data points with relative error of 13% and R2 = 0.997, across all of the species tested. For gypsy moth, we also related season-long and weekly trap catches to the daily trap catches during peak flight. We describe several usage scenarios, in which the derived relationships are employed to help link results of small-scale field studies to the operational pest management programs.

  16. Influenza epidemics, seasonality, and the effects of cold weather on cardiac mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background More people die in the winter from cardiac disease, and there are competing hypotheses to explain this. The authors conducted a study in 48 US cities to determine how much of the seasonal pattern in cardiac deaths could be explained by influenza epidemics, whether that allowed a more parsimonious control for season than traditional spline models, and whether such control changed the short term association with temperature. Methods The authors obtained counts of daily cardiac deaths and of emergency hospital admissions of the elderly for influenza during 1992–2000. Quasi-Poisson regression models were conducted estimating the association between daily cardiac mortality, and temperature. Results Controlling for influenza admissions provided a more parsimonious model with better Generalized Cross-Validation, lower residual serial correlation, and better captured Winter peaks. The temperature-response function was not greatly affected by adjusting for influenza. The pooled estimated increase in risk for a temperature decrease from 0 to −5°C was 1.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-2.1%). Influenza accounted for 2.3% of cardiac deaths over this period. Conclusions The results suggest that including epidemic data explained most of the irregular seasonal pattern (about 18% of the total seasonal variation), allowing more parsimonious models than when adjusting for seasonality only with smooth functions of time. The effect of cold temperature is not confounded by epidemics. PMID:23025494

  17. Morbidity, Mortality, and Seasonality of Influenza Hospitalizations in Egypt, November 2007-November 2014.

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    Amr Kandeel

    Full Text Available Influenza typically comprises a substantial portion of acute respiratory infections, a leading cause of mortality worldwide. However, influenza epidemiology data are lacking in Egypt. We describe seven years of Egypt's influenza hospitalizations from a multi-site influenza surveillance system.Syndromic case definitions identified individuals with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI admitted to eight hospitals in Egypt. Standardized demographic and clinical data were collected. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were tested for influenza using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and typed as influenza A or B, and influenza A specimens subtyped.From November 2007-November 2014, 2,936/17,441 (17% SARI cases were influenza-positive. Influenza-positive patients were more likely to be older, female, pregnant, and have chronic condition(s (all p<0.05. Among them, 53 (2% died, and death was associated with older age, five or more days from symptom onset to hospitalization, chronic condition(s, and influenza A (all p<0.05. An annual seasonal influenza pattern occurred from July-June. Each season, the proportion of the season's influenza-positive cases peaked during November-May (19-41%.In Egypt, influenza causes considerable morbidity and mortality and influenza SARI hospitalization patterns mirror those of the Northern Hemisphere. Additional assessment of influenza epidemiology in Egypt may better guide disease control activities and vaccine policy.

  18. SEASONAL INCIDENCE AND AGE-RELATED MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY OF VARICELLA IN KERALA

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    Junais Koleri

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND As the incidence of varicella in children is decreasing, the infection rate in the adults is on the rise. This study attempts to identify the all-cause-mortality and morbidity rate of varicella in adults and also the seasonal pattern of varicella infection. MATERIALS AND METHODS Varicella is diagnosed clinically. The data is recovered from case records of all the patients admitted at Government Medical College, Kozhikode, continuously over 2007 to 2012. RESULTS 640 patients were admitted with most of the cases in the age group of 20 to 40. 40% of the population belonged to above fifty years. The mean duration of hospitalisation was 21.5 days in elderly against 5 days in young patients. The mortality rate was also high in elderly (10.8% vs. 4% The varicella epidemics peak towards January to April. CONCLUSION The duration of hospital admission and the all-cause-mortality is much high in elderly population with varicella. Hence, there should be attempts to vaccinate the susceptible elderly population. The disease peaks towards January to April; hence, resources can be planned accordingly for proper utilisation.

  19. Association of Peak Changes in Plasma Cystatin C and Creatinine with Mortality post Cardiac Surgery

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    Park, Meyeon; Shlipak, Michael G.; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Garg, Amit X.; Koyner, Jay L.; Coca, Steven G.; Parikh, Chirag R.

    2015-01-01

    Background Acute kidney injury is a risk factor for mortality in cardiac surgery patients. Plasma cystatin C and creatinine have different temporal profiles in the post-operative setting, but the associations of simultaneous changes in both filtration markers as compared to change in only one marker with prognosis following hospital discharge are not well described. Methods This is a longitudinal study of 1199 high-risk adult cardiac surgery patients in the TRIBE-AKI (Translational Research Investigating Biomarker Endpoints for Acute Kidney Injury) Consortium who survived hospitalization. We examined in-hospital peak changes of cystatin C and creatinine in the 3 days following cardiac surgery. We evaluated associations of these filtration markers with mortality, adjusting for demographics, operative characteristics, medical comorbidities, pre-operative estimated glomerular filtration rate, pre-operative urinary albumin to creatinine ratio, and site. Results During the first 3 days of hospitalization, nearly twice as many patients had a ≥ 25% rise in creatinine (30%) compared to a ≥ 25% peak rise in cystatin C (15%). Those with elevations in either cystatin C or creatinine had higher mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio cystatin C 1.83 (95% CI 1.4–2.37) and creatinine 1.90 (95% CI 1.32–2.72)) compared with persons who experienced a post-operative decrease in either filtration marker, respectively. Patients who had simultaneous elevations of ≥ 25% in both cystatin C and creatinine were at similar adjusted risk for 3 year mortality (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.03–3.1) as those with ≥ 25% increase in cystatin C alone (HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.09–4.47). Conclusions Elevations in creatinine post-operatively are more common than elevations in cystatin C. However, elevations in cystatin C appeared to be associated with higher risk of mortality after hospital discharge. PMID:26921980

  20. Case-based reported mortality associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1 2009 virus infection in the Netherlands: the 2009-2010 pandemic season versus the 2010-2011 influenza season

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    Timen Aura

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In contrast to seasonal influenza epidemics, where the majority of deaths occur amongst elderly, a considerable part of the 2009 pandemic influenza related deaths concerned relatively young people. In the Netherlands, all deaths associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1 2009 virus infection had to be notified, both during the 2009-2010 pandemic season and the 2010-2011 influenza season. To assess whether and to what extent pandemic mortality patterns were reverting back to seasonal patterns, a retrospective analyses of all notified fatal cases associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1 2009 virus infection was performed. Methods The notification database, including detailed information about the clinical characteristics of all notified deaths, was used to perform a comprehensive analysis of all deceased patients with a laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1 2009 virus infection. Characteristics of the fatalities with respect to age and underlying medical conditions were analysed, comparing the 2009-2010 pandemic and the 2010-2011 influenza season. Results A total of 65 fatalities with a laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1 2009 virus infection were notified in 2009-2010 and 38 in 2010-2011. During the pandemic season, the population mortality rates peaked in persons aged 0-15 and 55-64 years. In the 2010-2011 influenza season, peaks in mortality were seen in persons aged 0-15 and 75-84 years. During the 2010-2011 influenza season, the height of first peak was lower compared to that during the pandemic season. Underlying immunological disorders were more common in the pandemic season compared to the 2010-2011 season (p = 0.02, and cardiovascular disorders were more common in the 2010-2011 season (p = 0.005. Conclusions The mortality pattern in the 2010-2011 influenza season still resembled the 2009-2010 pandemic season with a peak in relatively young age groups, but concurrently a clear shift toward

  1. Morbidity, Mortality, and Seasonality of Influenza Hospitalizations in Egypt, November 2007-November 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandeel, Amr; Labib, Manal; Said, Mayar; El-Refai, Samir; El-Gohari, Amani; Talaat, Maha

    2016-01-01

    Background Influenza typically comprises a substantial portion of acute respiratory infections, a leading cause of mortality worldwide. However, influenza epidemiology data are lacking in Egypt. We describe seven years of Egypt’s influenza hospitalizations from a multi-site influenza surveillance system. Methods Syndromic case definitions identified individuals with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) admitted to eight hospitals in Egypt. Standardized demographic and clinical data were collected. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were tested for influenza using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and typed as influenza A or B, and influenza A specimens subtyped. Results From November 2007–November 2014, 2,936/17,441 (17%) SARI cases were influenza-positive. Influenza-positive patients were more likely to be older, female, pregnant, and have chronic condition(s) (all p<0.05). Among them, 53 (2%) died, and death was associated with older age, five or more days from symptom onset to hospitalization, chronic condition(s), and influenza A (all p<0.05). An annual seasonal influenza pattern occurred from July–June. Each season, the proportion of the season’s influenza-positive cases peaked during November–May (19–41%). Conclusions In Egypt, influenza causes considerable morbidity and mortality and influenza SARI hospitalization patterns mirror those of the Northern Hemisphere. Additional assessment of influenza epidemiology in Egypt may better guide disease control activities and vaccine policy. PMID:27607330

  2. Seasonal variation and trends in stroke hospitalizations and mortality in a South American community hospital.

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    Díaz, Alejandro; Gerschcovich, Eliana Roldan; Díaz, Adriana A; Antía, Fabiana; Gonorazky, Sergio

    2013-10-01

    Numerous studies have reported the presence of temporal variations in biological processes. Seasonal variation (SV) in stroke has been widely studied, but little data have been published on this phenomenon in the Southern Hemisphere, and there have been no studies reported from Argentina. The goals of the present study were to describe the SV of admissions and deaths for stroke and examine trends in stroke morbidity and mortality over a 3-year period in a community hospital in Argentina. Hospital discharge reports from the electronic database of vital statistics between 1999 and 2001 were examined retrospectively. Patients who had a main discharge diagnosis of stroke (ischemic or hemorrhagic) or cerebrovascular accident (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes 431, 432, 434, and 436) were selected. The study sample included 1382 hospitalizations by stroke (3.5% of all admissions). In-hospital mortality demonstrated a winter peak (25.5% vs 17% in summer; P = .001). The crude seasonal stroke attack rate (ischemic and hemorrhagic) was highest in winter (164 per 100,000 population; 95% CI, 159-169 per 100,000) and lowest in summer (124 per 100,000; 95% CI, 120-127 per 100,000; P = .008). Stroke admissions followed a seasonal pattern, with a winter-spring predominance (P = .008). Our data indicate a clear SV in stroke deaths and admissions in this region of Argentina. The existence of SV in stroke raises a different hypothesis about the rationale of HF admissions and provides information for the organization of care and resource allocation. Copyright © 2013 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Peak flow as predictor of overall mortality in asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ejvind Frausing; Vestbo, Jørgen; Phanareth, K

    2001-01-01

    Lung function is a strong predictor of overall mortality in asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). FEV1 is considered to be the "gold standard," whereas peak expiratory flow (PEF) is mostly used in absence of FEV1 measurements. We compared the predictive power of PEF and FEV1......, measured after maximal bronchodilation, which included a short course of oral corticosteroids. The study population comprised 491 asthmatics and 1,095 subjects with COPD. Pulmonary function tests were performed between 1983 and 1988, and survival data were obtained by September 1997, when 127 asthmatics...... reflecting different components of COPD, i.e., chronic bronchitis, small airways disease, and emphysema. Furthermore, extrapulmonary components such as muscle mass and general "vigour" probably affect PEF to a greater extent than they affect FEV1....

  4. Seasonal mortality and sequential density dependence in a migratory bird

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rakhimberdiev, Eldar; van den Hout, Piet J.; Brugge, Maarten; Spaans, Bernard; Piersma, Theunis

    2015-01-01

    Migratory bird populations may be limited during one or more seasons, and thus at one or more places, but there is a dearth of empirical examples of this possibility. We analyse seasonal survival in a migratory shellfish-eating shorebird (red knot Calidris canutus islandica) during a series of years

  5. The risk mortality of the population of azerbaijan from circulatory diseases, depending on the season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Rzayeva

    2015-06-01

    Azerbaijan State Advanced Training Institute for doctors named after A. Aliyev, Baku   ABSTRACT The Objective.  To obtain evidence-based data about the role of seasons of the year in the formation of the population mortality risk from the circulatory system diseases  (CSD in Azerbaijan and its regions with specific climate. Materials of the study. A case of mortality was a unit of statistical observation. The fatalities from all reasons, including CSD have been distributed by the days of every month in the year. Daily average amount of fatalities by months and seasons ( from 20 December to 19 March – winter; from 20 March to 19 June- spring; from 20 June to 16 September; from 20 September to 19 December - autumn have been determined. Results.  In Azerbaijan the risk of general mortality and mortality from CSD is the highest in winter, it decreases in spring but nonuniformly (the general mortality rate is less than that from CSD. That is why the share of CSD increases among mortality reasons. Conclusions. Seasonal change of mortality risks from CSD is multivariant. Winter-spring increase of risk predominates in Azerbaijan. In some regions of Azerbaijan the mortality risk from CSD increases only once either in spring or in summer or winter. Key words: seasonal dynamics, risk of mortality, circulatory system diseases.

  6. Magnitudes and timing of seasonal peak snowpack water equivalents in Arizona: A preliminary study of the possible effects of recent climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter F. Ffolliott; Gerald J. Gottfried

    2010-01-01

    Field measurements and computer-based predictions suggest that the magnitudes of seasonal peak snowpack water equivalents are becoming less and the timing of these peaks is occurring earlier in the snowmelt-runoff season of the western United States. These changes in peak snowpack conditions have often been attributed to a warming of the regional climate. To determine...

  7. Seasonal Variation in Mortality, Medical Care Expenditure and Institutionalization in Older People

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rolden, Herbert Jan Albert; Rohling, Jos Hermanus Theodoor; van Bodegom, David

    2015-01-01

    . It is therefore important to investigate the impact of the seasons on MCE both mediated and unmediated by mortality. METHODS: Data on mortality, MCE and institutionalization from people aged 65 and older in a region in the Netherlands from July 2007 through 2010 were retrieved from a regional health care insurer...... in mortality is similar for both institutionalized and community-dwelling elderly. Policy-makers, epidemiologists and health economists are urged to acknowledge and include the impact of the seasons in future policy and research....

  8. Seasonal spring peaks of suicide in victims with and without prior history of hospitalization for mood disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postolache, Teodor T; Mortensen, Preben B; Tonelli, Leonardo H; Jiao, Xiaolong; Frangakis, Constantin; Soriano, Joseph J; Qin, Ping

    2010-02-01

    Seasonal spring peaks of suicide are highly replicated, but their origin is poorly understood. As the peak of suicide in spring could be a consequence of decompensation of mood disorders in spring, we hypothesized that prior history of mood disorders is predictively associated with suicide in spring. We analyzed the monthly rates of suicide based upon all 37,987 suicide cases in the Danish Cause of Death Registry from 1970 to 2001. History of mood disorder was obtained from the Danish Psychiatric Central Register and socioeconomical data from the Integrated Database for Labour Market Research. The monthly rate ratio of suicide relative to December was estimated using a Poisson regression. Seasonality of suicide between individuals with versus without hospitalization for mood disorders was compared using conditional logistic regression analyses with adjustment for income, marital status, place of residence, and method of suicide. A statistically significant spring peak in suicide was observed in both groups. A history of mood disorders was associated with an increased risk of suicide in spring (for males: RR=1.18, 95% CI 1.07-1.31; for females: RR=1.20, 95% CI 1.10-1.32). History of axis II disorders was not analyzed. Danish socioeconomical realities have only limited generalizability. The results support the need to further investigate if exacerbation of mood disorders in spring triggers seasonal peaks of suicide. Identifying triggers for seasonal spring peaks in suicide may lead to uncovering novel risk factors and therapeutic targets for suicide prevention. 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Did medieval trade activity and a viral etiology control the spatial extent and seasonal distribution of Black Death mortality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossak, Brian H; Welford, Mark R

    2009-06-01

    Recent research into the world's greatest recorded epidemic, the Medieval Black Death (MBD), has cast doubt on Bubonic Plague as the etiologic agent. Prior research has recently culminated in outstanding advances in our understanding of the spatio-temporal pattern of MBD mortality, and a characterization of the incubation, latent, infectious, and symptomatic periods of the MBD. However, until now, several mysteries remained unexplained, including perhaps the biggest quandary of all: why did the MBD exhibit inverse seasonal peaks in mortality from diseases recorded in modern times, such as seasonal Influenza or the Indian Plague Epidemics of the early 1900 s? Although some have argued that climate changes likely explain the observed differences between modern clinical Bubonic Plague seasonality and MBD mortality accounts, we believe that another factor explains these dissimilarities. Here, we provide a synthetic hypothesis which builds upon previous theories developed in the last ten years or so. Our all-encompassing theory explains the causation, dissemination, and lethality of the MBD. We theorize that the MBD was a human-to-human transmitted virus, originating in East-Central Asia and not Africa (as some recent work has proposed), and that its areal extent during the first great epidemic wave of 1347-1350 was controlled hierarchically by proximity to trade routes. We also propose that the seasonality of medieval trade controlled the warm-weather mortality peaks witnessed during 1347-1350; during the time of greatest market activity, traders, fairgoers, and religious pilgrims served as unintentional vectors of a lethal virus with an incubation period of approximately 32 days, including a largely asymptomatic yet infectious period of roughly three weeks. We include a description of the rigorous research agenda that we have proposed in order to subject our theory to scientific scrutiny and a description of our plans to generate the first publicly available

  10. Seasonal mortality variations of cardiovascular, respiratory and malignant diseases in the City of Belgrade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanišić-Stojić Svetlana

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to examine seasonal variations in mortality resulting from cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and cancer, as well as to provide a review of environmental factors underlying such phenomenon. The herein presented study was conducted on the territory of Belgrade based on the data on daily mortality rates obtained from the Institute of Public Health in Belgrade for the period 2009-2014, as well as the data on annual mortality rates provided by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia for the period 2000-2014. The analysis of mortality variations was performed by the use of Theil-Sen method, smooth trend method and cubic spline interpolation, whereas desriptive tools, such as winter/summer ratio and dissimilarity index, were used to examine the seasonal pattern. According to the Institute of Public Health, over 113430 deaths were registered in Belgrade area for the period 2009-2014, out of which 53.25% is attributed to cardiovascular diseases, 4.01% to respiratory diseases and 27.50% to cancer. The annual mortality rates caused by cardiovascular diseases and cancer on the territory of Belgrade are among the highest ranking in Europe. The leading causes of death in the observed period included: cardiomyopathy, heart attack and stroke with accompanying complications, breast cancer in women, prostate and colorectal cancer in men, lung and bronchus cancer for both genders, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Cardiovascular and respiratory mortality rates are significantly higher among people aged 65 and over, whereas more than one third of deaths caused by cancer is observed among younger people aged between 45 and 64 years. Research results show that seasonal variations were most pronounced in mortality resulting from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, with highest mortality rates recorded in February and March and lowest during the summer season. Also, the number of deaths due to

  11. Seasonal variation in short-term mortality after surgery for colorectal cancer?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, L H; Nielsen, H; Pedersen, L

    2010-01-01

    Comorbidity has a major impact on short-term and long-term survival of colorectal cancer (CRC) and many CRC patients suffer from comorbidities. Mortality rates for comorbidities like cardio-respiratory diseases exhibit distinct seasonal variations with highest rates in the winter. Therefore, we...

  12. Season of prescribed burn in ponderosa pine forests in eastern Oregon: impact on pine mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter G. Thies; Douglas J. Westlind; Mark. Loewen

    2005-01-01

    A study of the effects of season of prescribed burn on tree mortality was established in mixed-age ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) at the south end of the Blue Mountains near Burns, Oregon. Each of six previously thinned stands was subdivided into three experimental units and one of three treatments was randomly assigned to each:...

  13. The effects of season and meteorology on human mortality in tropical climates: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkart, Katrin; Khan, Md Mobarak Hossain; Schneider, Alexandra; Breitner, Susanne; Langner, Marcel; Krämer, Alexander; Endlicher, Wilfried

    2014-07-01

    Research in the field of atmospheric science and epidemiology has long recognized the health effects of seasonal and meteorological conditions. However, little scientific knowledge exists to date about the impacts of atmospheric parameters on human mortality in tropical regions. Working within the scope of this systematic review, this investigation conducted a literature search using different databases; original research articles were chosen according to pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Both seasonal and meteorological effects were considered. The findings suggest that high amounts of rainfall and increasing temperatures cause a seasonal excess in infectious disease mortality and are therefore relevant in regions and populations in which such diseases are prevalent. On the contrary, moderately low and very high temperatures exercise an adverse effect on cardio-respiratory mortality and shape the mortality pattern in areas and sub-groups in which these diseases are dominant. Atmospheric effects were subject to population-specific factors such as age and socio-economic status and differed between urban and rural areas. The consequences of climate change as well as environmental, epidemiological and social change (e.g., emerging non-communicable diseases, ageing of the population, urbanization) suggest a growing relevance of heat-related excess mortality in tropical regions. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

    2018-02-01

    Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

  15. The phase differences of the interdecadal variabilities of tropical cyclone activity in the peak and late seasons over the western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Tingting; Xu, Shibin; Huang, Fei; Zhao, Jinping

    2018-04-01

    This study compares the interdecadal variations in tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the western North Pacific (WNP) basin during the peak season (July-September) and late season (October-December) of 1955-2014 and explores the possible physical mechanisms behind the variations. Both the peak- and late-season tropical storm (TS) days show distinct interdecadal variations, while the late-season TS days lead the peak-season TS days by approximately 4 years on an interdecadal time scale. The late-season TC activity is related to the east-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the equatorial Pacific. The westerly winds induced by the SST gradient can reduce the vertical wind shear and increase the low-level vorticity, which favors TC genesis over the TC genesis region. The peak-season TC activity appears to relate to the SST gradient between the Indian Ocean and the Central Pacific. The westerly wind induced by the SST gradient can reduce the vertical wind shear and increase the mid-level relative humidity, thereby enhancing the TC activity. The full picture of the interdecadal variation in the WNP TC activity during the peak and late seasons revealed in this study provides a new perspective on the seasonal TC forecasts and future projections.

  16. Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Joe H., III; Roeder, William P.

    2010-01-01

    Peak wind speed is important element in 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS). Forecasts issued for planning operations at KSC/CCAFS. 45 WS wind advisories issued for wind gusts greater than or equal to 25 kt. 35 kt and 50 kt from surface to 300 ft. AMU developed cool-season (Oct - Apr) tool to help 45 WS forecast: daily peak wind speed, 5-minute average speed at time of peak wind, and probability peak speed greater than or equal to 25 kt, 35 kt, 50 kt. AMU tool also forecasts daily average wind speed from 30 ft to 60 ft. Phase I and II tools delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). Phase II tool also delivered as Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) GUI. Phase I and II forecast methods were compared to climatology, 45 WS wind advisories and North American Mesoscale model (MesoNAM) forecasts in a verification data set.

  17. European seasonal mortality and influenza incidence due to winter temperature variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodó, X.; Ballester, J.; Robine, J. M.; Herrmann, F. R.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies have vividly emphasized the lack of consensus on the degree of vulnerability (sensu IPCC) of European societies to current and future winter temperatures. Here we consider several climate factors, influenza incidence and daily numbers of deaths to characterize the relationship between winter temperature and mortality in a very large ensemble of European regions representing more than 400 million people. Analyses highlight the strong association between the year-to-year fluctuations in winter mean temperature and mortality, with higher seasonal cases during harsh winters, in all of the countries except the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium. This spatial distribution contrasts with the well-documented latitudinal orientation of the dependency between daily temperature and mortality within the season. A theoretical framework is proposed to reconcile the apparent contradictions between recent studies, offering an interpretation to regional differences in the vulnerability to daily, seasonal and long-term winter temperature variability. Despite the lack of a strong year-to-year association between winter mean values in some countries, it can be concluded that warmer winters will contribute to the decrease in winter mortality everywhere in Europe. More information in Ballester J, et al. (2016) Nature Climate Change 6, 927-930, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3070.

  18. Satellite Phenology Observations Inform Peak Season of Allergenic Grass Pollen Aerobiology across Two Continents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huete, A. R.; Devadas, R.; Davies, J.

    2015-12-01

    Pollen exposure and prevalence of allergenic diseases have increased in many parts of the world during the last 30 years, with exposure to aeroallergen grass pollen expected to intensify with climate change, raising increased concerns for allergic diseases. The primary contributing factors to higher allergenic plant species presence are thought to be climate change, land conversion, and biotic mixing of species. Conventional methods for monitoring airborne pollen are hampered by a lack of sampling sites and heavily rely on meteorology with less attention to land cover updates and monitoring of key allergenic species phenology stages. Satellite remote sensing offers an alternative method to overcome the restrictive coverage afforded by in situ pollen networks by virtue of its synoptic coverage and repeatability of measurements that enable timely updates of land cover and land use information and monitoring landscape dynamics and interactions with human activity and climate. In this study, we assessed the potential of satellite observations of urban/peri-urban environments to directly inform landscape conditions conducive to pollen emissions. We found satellite measurements of grass cover phenological evolution to be highly correlated with in situ aerobiological grass pollen concentrations in five urban centres located across two hemispheres (Australia and France). Satellite greenness data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were found to be strongly synchronous with grass pollen aerobiology in both temperate grass dominated sites (France and Melbourne), as well as in Sydney, where multiple pollen peaks coincided with the presence of subtropical grasses. Employing general additive models (GAM), the satellite phenology data provided strong predictive capabilities to inform airborne pollen levels and forecast periods of grass pollen emissions at all five sites. Satellite phenology offer promising opportunities of improving public health risk

  19. Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Joe H., III; Roeder, William P.

    2010-01-01

    The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily morning forecast for ground and space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) must issue forecast advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect peak gusts for >= 25, >= 35, and >= 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. In Phase I of this task, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a cool-season (October - April) tool to help forecast the non-convective peak wind from the surface to 300 ft at KSC/CCAFS. During the warm season, these wind speeds are rarely exceeded except during convective winds or under the influence of tropical cyclones, for which other techniques are already in use. The tool used single and multiple linear regression equations to predict the peak wind from the morning sounding. The forecaster manually entered several observed sounding parameters into a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI), and then the tool displayed the forecast peak wind speed, average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, the timing of the peak wind and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed 35, 50 and 60 kt. The 45 WS customers later dropped the requirement for >= 60 kt wind warnings. During Phase II of this task, the AMU expanded the period of record (POR) by six years to increase the number of observations used to create the forecast equations. A large number of possible predictors were evaluated from archived soundings, including inversion depth and strength, low-level wind shear, mixing height, temperature lapse rate and winds from the surface to 3000 ft. Each day in the POR was stratified in a number of ways, such as by low-level wind direction, synoptic weather pattern, precipitation and Bulk Richardson number. The most accurate Phase II equations were then selected for an independent verification. The Phase I and II forecast methods were

  20. Seasonal survival rates and causes of mortality of Little Owls in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorup, Kasper; Pedersen, Dorthe; Sunde, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Survival rate is an essential component of population dynamics; therefore, identification of variation in mortality rates and the factors that influence them might be of key importance in understanding why populations increase or decrease. In Denmark, the Little Owl Athene noctua, a species...... the causes of current survival rates, we estimated age- and season-specific survival rates and causes of mortality in Danish Little Owls on the basis of ringed birds 1920–2002, radio tagged adult and juveniles 2005–2008 and nest surveys 2006–2008. We estimate that 32 % of all eggs fledge and survive to 2...... the breeding season. In radio-tagged adults and fledged juveniles, accidents in buildings and other human infrastructures were responsible for two-thirds of all fatalities. Anthropogenic habitats currently comprise the nesting and roosting habitats for the last Danish Little Owls. The accidental deaths...

  1. Hourly peak concentration measuring the PM2.5-mortality association: Results from six cities in the Pearl River Delta study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Hualiang; Ratnapradipa, Kendra; Wang, Xiaojie; Zhang, Yonghui; Xu, Yanjun; Yao, Zhenjiang; Dong, Guanghui; Liu, Tao; Clark, Jessica; Dick, Rebecca; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xing; Qian, Zhengmin (Min); Ma, Wenjun

    2017-07-01

    Compared with daily mean concentration of air pollution, hourly peak concentration may be more directly relevant to the acute health effects due to the high concentration levels, however, few have analyzed the acute mortality effects of hourly peak levels of air pollution. We examined the associations of hourly peak concentration of fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) with mortality in six cities in Pearl River Delta, China. We used generalized additive Poisson models to examine the associations with adjustment for potential confounders in each city. We further applied random-effects meta-analyses to estimate the regional overall effects. We further estimated the mortality burden attributable to hourly peak and daily mean PM2.5. We observed significant associations between hourly peak PM2.5 and mortality. Each 10 μg/m3 increase in 4-day averaged (lag03) hourly peak PM2.5 corresponded to a 0.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7%, 1.1%] increase in total mortality, 1.2% (95% CI: 1.0%, 1.5%) in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.7% (95% CI: 0.2%, 1.1%) in respiratory mortality. We observed a greater mortality burden using hourly peak PM2.5 than daily mean PM2.5, with an estimated 12915 (95% CI: 9922, 15949) premature deaths attributable to hourly peak PM2.5, and 7951 (95% CI: 5067, 10890) to daily mean PM2.5 in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region during the study period. This study suggests that hourly peak PM2.5 might be one important risk factor of mortality in PRD region of China; the finding provides important information for future air pollution management and epidemiological studies.

  2. Seasonal variation in the acute effect of particulate air pollution on mortality in the China Air Pollution and Health Effects Study (CAPES)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Renjie; Peng, Roger D.; Meng, Xia; Zhou, Zhijun; Chen, Bingheng; Kan, Haidong

    2013-01-01

    Epidemiological findings concerning the seasonal variation in the acute effect of particulate matter (PM) are inconsistent. We investigated the seasonality in the association between PM with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 μm (PM10) and daily mortality in 17 Chinese cities. We fitted the “main” time-series model after adjustment for time-varying confounders using smooth functions with natural splines. We established a “seasonal” model to obtain the season-specific effect estimates of PM10, and a “harmonic” model to show the seasonal pattern that allows PM10 effects to vary smoothly with the day in a year. At the national level, a 10 μg/m3 increase in the two-day moving average concentrations (lag 01) of PM10 was associated with 0.45% [95% posterior interval (PI), 0.15% to 0.76%], 0.17% (95% PI, −0.09% to 0.43%), 0.55% (95% PI, 0.15% to 0.96%) and 0.25% (95%PI, −0.05% to 0.56%) increases in total mortality for winter, spring, summer and fall, respectively. For the smoothly-varying plots of seasonality, we identified a two-peak pattern in winter and summer. The observed seasonal pattern was generally insensitive to model specifications. Our analyses suggest that the acute effect of particulate air pollution could vary by seasons with the largest effect in winter and summer in China. To our knowledge, this is the first multicity study in developing countries to analyze the seasonal variations of PM-related health effects. PMID:23500824

  3. Latitudinal variation in seasonal activity and mortality in ratsnakes (Elaphe obsoleta).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperry, Jinelle H; Blouin-Demers, Gabriel; Carfagno, Gerardo L F; Weatherhead, Patrick J

    2010-06-01

    The ecology of ectotherms should be particularly affected by latitude because so much of their biology is temperature dependent. Current latitudinal patterns should also be informative about how ectotherms will have to modify their behavior in response to climate change. We used data from a total of 175 adult black ratsnakes (Elaphe obsoleta) radio-tracked in Ontario, Illinois, and Texas, a latitudinal distance of >1500 km, to test predictions about how seasonal patterns of activity and mortality should vary with latitude. Despite pronounced differences in temperatures among study locations, and despite ratsnakes in Texas not hibernating and switching from diurnal to nocturnal activity in the summer, seasonal patterns of snake activity were remarkably similar during the months that snakes in all populations were active. Rather than being a function of temperature, activity may be driven by the timing of reproduction, which appears similar among populations. Contrary to the prediction that mortality should be highest in the most active population, overall mortality did not follow a clinal pattern. Winter mortality did increase with latitude, however, consistent with temperature limiting the northern distribution of ratsnakes. This result was opposite that found in the only previous study of latitudinal variation in winter mortality in reptiles, which may be a consequence of whether or not the animals exhibit true hibernation. Collectively, these results suggest that, at least in the northern part of their range, ratsnakes should be able to adjust easily to, and may benefit from, a warmer climate, although climate-based changes to the snakes' prey or habitat, for example, could alter that prediction.

  4. Suicide Mortality Among Retired National Football League Players Who Played 5 or More Seasons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehman, Everett J; Hein, Misty J; Gersic, Christine M

    2016-10-01

    There is current disagreement in the scientific literature about the relationship between playing football and suicide risk, particularly among professional players in the National Football League (NFL). While some research indicates players are at high risk of football-related concussions, which may lead to chronic traumatic encephalopathy and suicide, other research finds such a connection to be speculative and unsupported by methodologically sound research. To compare the suicide mortality of a cohort of NFL players to what would be expected in the general population of the United States. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. A cohort of 3439 NFL players with at least 5 credited playing seasons between 1959 and 1988 was assembled for statistical analysis. The vital status for this cohort was updated through 2013. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), the ratio of observed deaths to expected deaths, and 95% CIs were computed for the cohort; 95% CIs that excluded unity were considered statistically significant. For internal comparison purposes, standardized rate ratios were calculated to compare mortality results between players stratified into speed and nonspeed position types. Suicide among this cohort of professional football players was significantly less than would be expected in comparison with the United States population (SMR = 0.47; 95% CI, 0.24-0.82). There were no significant differences in suicide mortality between speed and nonspeed position players. There is no indication of elevated suicide risk in this cohort of professional football players with 5 or more credited seasons of play. Because of the unique nature of this cohort, these study results may not be applicable to professional football players who played fewer than 5 years or to college or high school players. © 2016 The Author(s).

  5. Seasonal Variation in Solar Ultra Violet Radiation and Early Mortality in Extremely Preterm Infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salas, Ariel A; Smith, Kelly A; Rodgers, Mackenzie D; Phillips, Vivien; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam

    2015-11-01

    Vitamin D production during pregnancy promotes fetal lung development, a major determinant of infant survival after preterm birth. Because vitamin D synthesis in humans is regulated by solar ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation, we hypothesized that seasonal variation in solar UVB doses during fetal development would be associated with variation in neonatal mortality rates. This cohort study included infants born alive with gestational age (GA) between 23 and 28 weeks gestation admitted to a neonatal unit between 1996 and 2010. Three infant cohort groups were defined according to increasing intensities of solar UVB doses at 17 and 22 weeks gestation. The primary outcome was death during the first 28 days after birth. Outcome data of 2,319 infants were analyzed. Mean birth weight was 830 ± 230 g and median gestational age was 26 weeks. Mortality rates were significantly different across groups (p = 0.04). High-intensity solar UVB doses were associated with lower mortality when compared with normal intensity solar UVB doses (hazard ratio: 0.70; 95% confidence interval: 0.54-0.91; p = 0.01). High-intensity solar UVB doses during fetal development seem to be associated with risk reduction of early mortality in preterm infants. Prospective studies are needed to validate these preliminary findings. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  6. Role of Acclimatization in Weather-Related Human Mortality During the Transition Seasons of Autumn and Spring in a Thermally Extreme Mid-Latitude Continental Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Freitas, Christopher R.; Grigorieva, Elena A.

    2015-01-01

    Human mortality is closely related to natural climate-determined levels of thermal environmental stress and the resulting thermophysiological strain. Most climate-mortality research has focused on seasonal extremes during winter and summer when mortality is the highest, while relatively little attention has been paid to mortality during the transitional seasons of autumn and spring. The body acclimatizes to heat in the summer and cold in winter and readjusts through acclimatization during the transitions between the two during which time the body experiences the thermophysiological strain of readjustment. To better understand the influences of weather on mortality through the acclimatization process, the aim here is to examine the periods that link very cold and very warms seasons. The study uses the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI), which is a comparative measure of short-term thermophysiological impact on the body. ATSI centers on heat exchange with the body’s core via the respiratory system, which cannot be protected. The analysis is based on data for a major city in the climatic region of the Russian Far East characterized by very hot summers and extremely cold winters. The results show that although mortality peaks in winter (January) and is at its lowest in summer (August), there is not a smooth rise through autumn nor a smooth decline through spring. A secondary peak occurs in autumn (October) with a smaller jump in May. This suggests the acclimatization from warm-to-cold produces more thermophysiological strain than the transition from cold-to-warm. The study shows that ATSI is a useful metric for quantifying the extent to which biophysical adaptation plays a role in increased strain on the body during re-acclimatization and for this reason is a more appropriate climatic indictor than air temperature alone. The work gives useful bioclimatic information on risks involved in transitional seasons in regions characterized by climatic extremes. This

  7. Short dry spells in the wet season increase mortality of tropical pioneer seedlings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelbrecht, Bettina M J; Dalling, James W; Pearson, Timothy R H; Wolf, Robert L; Gálvez, David A; Koehler, Tobias; Tyree, Melvin T; Kursar, Thomas A

    2006-06-01

    Variation in plant species performance in response to water availability offers a potential axis for temporal and spatial habitat partitioning and may therefore affect community composition in tropical forests. We hypothesized that short dry spells during the wet season are a significant source of mortality for the newly emerging seedlings of pioneer species that recruit in treefall gaps in tropical forests. An analysis of a 49-year rainfall record for three forests across a rainfall gradient in central Panama confirmed that dry spells of > or = 10 days during the wet season occur on average once a year in a deciduous forest, and once every other year in a semi-deciduous moist and an evergreen wet forest. The effect of wet season dry spells on the recruitment of pioneers was investigated by comparing seedling survival in rain-protected dry plots and irrigated control plots in four large artificially created treefall gaps in a semi-deciduous tropical forest. In rain-protected plots surface soil layers dried rapidly, leading to a strong gradient in water potential within the upper 10 cm of soil. Seedling survival for six pioneer species was significantly lower in rain-protected than in irrigated control plots after only 4 days. The strength of the irrigation effect differed among species, and first became apparent 3-10 days after treatments started. Root allocation patterns were significantly, or marginally significantly, different between species and between two groups of larger and smaller seeded species. However, they were not correlated with seedling drought sensitivity, suggesting allocation is not a key trait for drought sensitivity in pioneer seedlings. Our data provide strong evidence that short dry spells in the wet season differentially affect seedling survivorship of pioneer species, and may therefore have important implications to seedling demography and community dynamics.

  8. Seasonal variation in cause-specific mortality: are there high-risk groups? 25-year follow-up of civil servants from the first Whitehall study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.T.M. van Rossum (Caroline); M.J. Shipley; H. Hemingway; D.E. Grobbee (Diederick); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan); M.G. Marmot

    2001-01-01

    textabstractOBJECTIVES: To determine the seasonal effect on all-cause and cause-specific mortality and to identify high-risk groups. METHODS: A 25-year follow-up of 19,019 male civil servants aged 40-69 years. RESULTS: All-cause mortality was seasonal (ratio of highest mortality

  9. Mortality Attributable to Seasonal Influenza A and B Infections in Thailand, 2005–2009: A Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Ben S.; Kotirum, Surachai; Kulpeng, Wantanee; Praditsitthikorn, Naiyana; Chittaganpitch, Malinee; Limmathurotsakul, Direk; Day, Nicholas P. J.; Coker, Richard; Teerawattananon, Yot; Meeyai, Aronrag

    2015-01-01

    Influenza epidemiology differs substantially in tropical and temperate zones, but estimates of seasonal influenza mortality in developing countries in the tropics are lacking. We aimed to quantify mortality due to seasonal influenza in Thailand, a tropical middle-income country. Time series of polymerase chain reaction–confirmed influenza infections between 2005 and 2009 were constructed from a sentinel surveillance network. These were combined with influenza-like illness data to derive measures of influenza activity and relationships to mortality by using a Bayesian regression framework. We estimated 6.1 (95% credible interval: 0.5, 12.4) annual deaths per 100,000 population attributable to influenza A and B, predominantly in those aged ≥60 years, with the largest contribution from influenza A(H1N1) in 3 out of 4 years. For A(H3N2), the relationship between influenza activity and mortality varied over time. Influenza was associated with increases in deaths classified as resulting from respiratory disease (posterior probability of positive association, 99.8%), cancer (98.6%), renal disease (98.0%), and liver disease (99.2%). No association with circulatory disease mortality was found. Seasonal influenza infections are associated with substantial mortality in Thailand, but evidence for the strong relationship between influenza activity and circulatory disease mortality reported in temperate countries is lacking. PMID:25899091

  10. Seasonal change in pupation behaviour and pupal mortality in a swallowtail butterfly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanescu, C.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Phenotypic plasticity in pupal colour has evolved to render cryptic pupae. Apart from characteristics of the pupation site, the photoperiod experienced by larvae is important in determining pupal colour, long and short photophases eliciting the formation of green and brown pupae, respectively. This seasonal polyphenismis often correlated with developmental pathway, green pupae developing directly and brown pupae entering into diapause. From 1996 to 2000, immature stages of Iphiclides podalirius were monitored on natural hostplants in NE Spain. Larvae were followed to the pupation site and pupal colour, characteristics of the pupation site and the fate of pupae were recorded. Before August, pupae were non-diapausing green while in early August they were dimorphic, after which, they were brown and overwintered. As theory predicts, differences in pupation sites in successive generations were found in relation to pupal colour. Green pupae occurred on the hostplants and brown pupae were found among the leaf litter. Mortality ranged from 14.3 to 100%. Bird predation was the major mortality factor for green pupae and was also important for brown pupae. Results suggest that preference for pupation sites in the litter in diapausing broods evolved to avoid strong bird predation on the hostplants. Preference for sites above ground level in summer generations may have evolved in response to both non-visual (small mammals and visual (avian predators.

  11. Seasonal analysis of the short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in Northeast Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Satbyul Estella; Honda, Yasushi; Hashizume, Masahiro; Kan, Haidong; Lim, Youn-Hee; Lee, Hyewon; Kim, Clara Tammy; Yi, Seung-Muk; Kim, Ho

    2017-01-15

    The constituents and concentrations of pollutants, individual exposures, and biologic responses to air pollution may vary by season and meteorological conditions. However, evidence regarding seasonality of the acute effects of air pollution on mortality is limited and inconsistent. Herein, we examined seasonal patterns in the short-term associations of particulate matter (PM) smaller than 10μm (PM 10 ) with daily mortality in 29 cities of three northeast Asian countries. Stratified time-series models were used to determine whether season altered the effect of PM 10 on mortality. This effect was first quantified within each season and at each location using a time-series model, after which city-specific estimates were pooled using a hierarchical Bayesian model. In all data sets, 3,675,348 non-accidental deaths were registered from 1993 to 2009. In Japan, a 10μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 was significantly associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.03%, 0.8%) in spring and 0.42% (0.02%, 0.82%) in fall. In South Korea, a 10μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 was significantly associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.51% (0.01%, 1.01%) in summer and 0.45% (0.03%, 0.87%) in fall, in cardiovascular disease mortality of 0.96% (0.29%, 1.63%) in fall, and in respiratory disease mortality of 1.57% (0.40%, 2.75%) in fall. In China, a 10μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 was associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.33% (0.01%, 0.66%) in summer and 0.41% (0.09%, 0.73%) in winter, in cardiovascular disease mortality of 0.41% (0.08%, 0.74%) in spring and 0.33% (0.02%, 0.64%) in winter, and in respiratory diseases mortality of 0.78% (0.27%, 1.30%) in winter. Our analyses suggest that the acute effect of particulate air pollution could vary seasonally and geographically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. The effects of dust–haze on mortality are modified by seasons and individual characteristics in Guangzhou, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Tao [Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Environment and Health, Guangdong Provincial Key Medical Discipline of Twelfth Five-Year Plan, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Zhang, Yong Hui [Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Xu, Yan Jun [Institute of Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Prevention and Control, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Lin, Hua Liang [Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Environment and Health, Guangdong Provincial Key Medical Discipline of Twelfth Five-Year Plan, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Xu, Xiao Jun [Institute of Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Prevention and Control, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Luo, Yuan; Xiao, JianPeng; Zeng, Wei Lin [Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Environment and Health, Guangdong Provincial Key Medical Discipline of Twelfth Five-Year Plan, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Zhang, Wan Fang [Liwan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510176 (China); Chu, Cordia; Keogh, Kandice; Rutherford, Shannon [Griffith University, Brisbane 4111 (Australia); Qian, Zhengmin [Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, MO 63104 (United States); Du, Yao Dong [Climate Center of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510080 (China); others, and

    2014-04-01

    This study aimed to investigate the effects of dust–haze on mortality and to estimate the seasonal and individual-specific modification effects in Guangzhou, China. Mortality, air pollution and meteorological data were collected for 2006–2011. A dust–haze day was defined as daily visibility <10 km with relative humidity <90%. This definition was further divided into light (8–10 km), medium (5–8 km) and heavy dust–haze (<5 km). A distributed lag linear model (DLM) was employed. Light, medium and heavy dust–haze days were associated with increased mortality of 3.4%, 6.8% and 10.4% respectively, at a lag of 0–6 days. This effect was more pronounced during the cold season, for cardiovascular mortality (CVD), respiratory mortality (RESP), in males and people ≥60years. These effects became insignificant after adjustment for PM{sub 10}. We concluded that dust–haze significantly increased mortality risk in Guangzhou, China, and this effect appears to be dominated by particulate mass and modified by season and individual-specific factors. - Highlights: • We assessed the health impact of dust–haze in a megacity of southern China. • A dust–haze was defined according to visibility and relative humidity. • Dust–haze increased mortality risk, which may be dominated by particulate mass. • The dust–haze effects were modified by season and individual-specific factors. - This study extends our understanding of the health impact of dust–haze in southern China, and provides local evidence for health to advocate for improved air emissions control and strategies to reduce population exposure.

  13. Scrub typhus in Uttarakhand & adjoining Uttar Pradesh: Seasonality, clinical presentations & predictors of mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhargava, Anurag; Kaushik, Reshma; Kaushik, Rajeev Mohan; Sharma, Anita; Ahmad, Sohaib; Dhar, Minakshi; Mittal, Garima; Khanduri, Sushant; Pant, Priyannk; Kakkar, Rajesh

    2016-12-01

    Scrub typhus is a re-emerging mite-borne rickettsiosis, which continues to be underdiagnosed, with lethal consequences. The present study was conducted to determine the seasonality, clinical presentation and predictors of mortality in patients with scrub typhus at a tertiary care teaching hospital in northern India. Scrub typhus was suspected in patients attending the hospital as per the standard case definition and serological evidence was obtained by performing an IgM ELISA. A total of 284 patients with scrub typhus from urban and rural areas were seen, predominantly from July to November. The most common clinical presentation was a bilateral community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), which resembled pneumonia due to atypical pathogens and often progressed to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). An acute undifferentiated febrile illness (AUFI) or a febrile illness associated with altered sensorium, aseptic meningitis, shock, abdominal pain, gastrointestinal bleeding or jaundice was also seen. Eschars were seen in 17 per cent of patients, and thrombocytopenia, transaminitis and azotaemia were frequent. There were 24 deaths (8.5%) caused predominantly by ARDS and multi-organ dysfunction. The mortality in patients with ARDS was high (37%). ARDS [odds ratio (OR)=38.29, 95% confidence interval (CI): 9.93, 147.71] and acute kidney injury (OR=8.30, 95% CI: 2.21, 31.21) were the major predictors of death. The present findings indicate that scrub typhus may be considered a cause of CAP, ARDS, AUFI or a febrile illness with multisystem involvement, in Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, especially from July to November. Empiric therapy of CAP may include doxycycline or azithromycin to ensure coverage of underlying unsuspected scrub typhus.

  14. Scrub typhus in Uttarakhand & adjoining Uttar Pradesh: Seasonality, clinical presentations & predictors of mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anurag Bhargava

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: Scrub typhus is a re-emerging mite-borne rickettsiosis, which continues to be underdiagnosed, with lethal consequences. The present study was conducted to determine the seasonality, clinical presentation and predictors of mortality in patients with scrub typhus at a tertiary care teaching hospital in northern India. Methods: Scrub typhus was suspected in patients attending the hospital as per the standard case definition and serological evidence was obtained by performing an IgM ELISA. Results: A total of 284 patients with scrub typhus from urban and rural areas were seen, predominantly from July to November. The most common clinical presentation was a bilateral community-acquired pneumonia (CAP, which resembled pneumonia due to atypical pathogens and often progressed to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS. An acute undifferentiated febrile illness (AUFI or a febrile illness associated with altered sensorium, aseptic meningitis, shock, abdominal pain, gastrointestinal bleeding or jaundice was also seen. Eschars were seen in 17 per cent of patients, and thrombocytopenia, transaminitis and azotaemia were frequent. There were 24 deaths (8.5% caused predominantly by ARDS and multi-organ dysfunction. The mortality in patients with ARDS was high (37%. ARDS [odds ratio (OR=38.29, 95% confidence interval (CI: 9.93, 147.71] and acute kidney injury (OR=8.30, 95% CI: 2.21, 31.21 were the major predictors of death. Interpretation & conclusions: The present findings indicate that scrub typhus may be considered a cause of CAP, ARDS, AUFI or a febrile illness with multisystem involvement, in Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, especially from July to November. Empiric therapy of CAP may include doxycycline or azithromycin to ensure coverage of underlying unsuspected scrub typhus.

  15. Variación estacional de la mortalidad en la ciudad de Valencia, España Seasonal variation of mortality rates within the city of Valencia, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FERRAN BALLESTER-DÍEZ

    1997-03-01

    . A clear seasonal pattern emerges with mortality peaking during the Winter months and dipping during the Summer and early Autumn. The increase in mortality seen during the month of January came to 27.7% of the total mortality for females and 19.5% of the total mortality for males. By age groups, this increase was greater in the 75-plus age group. Graphically, the relationship between temperature and mortality has a V-shape appearance, with a lower mortality level when the mean daily temperature for the month in question is approximately 23 degrees Celsius. Based on this relationship, two complementary variables were constructed and denominated cold and heat. These variables explain the greater percentage variability in mortality for all causes (47.6% in males and 54.8% in females in comparison with the model having temperature as its only variable. The association between temperature variables and mortality was greater in the older age groups ant in the females. Conclusions. A marked seasonal variation in mortality for all causes can be observed for both sexes, with peaks in the mortality rate during January and fewer mortalities during September. The seasonal variation in mortality grows in line with age and is undetectable in the youngest age group. By sex, the seasonal pattern is more marked for females than for males, with a noticeably more pronounced positive association between mortality and the cold variable in men of the older age-group, whereas, for women of the older age group, there is a greater association with the heat variable.

  16. The effects of dust–haze on mortality are modified by seasons and individual characteristics in Guangzhou, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Tao; Zhang, Yong Hui; Xu, Yan Jun; Lin, Hua Liang; Xu, Xiao Jun; Luo, Yuan; Xiao, JianPeng; Zeng, Wei Lin; Zhang, Wan Fang; Chu, Cordia; Keogh, Kandice; Rutherford, Shannon; Qian, Zhengmin; Du, Yao Dong

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to investigate the effects of dust–haze on mortality and to estimate the seasonal and individual-specific modification effects in Guangzhou, China. Mortality, air pollution and meteorological data were collected for 2006–2011. A dust–haze day was defined as daily visibility 10 . We concluded that dust–haze significantly increased mortality risk in Guangzhou, China, and this effect appears to be dominated by particulate mass and modified by season and individual-specific factors. - Highlights: • We assessed the health impact of dust–haze in a megacity of southern China. • A dust–haze was defined according to visibility and relative humidity. • Dust–haze increased mortality risk, which may be dominated by particulate mass. • The dust–haze effects were modified by season and individual-specific factors. - This study extends our understanding of the health impact of dust–haze in southern China, and provides local evidence for health to advocate for improved air emissions control and strategies to reduce population exposure

  17. Chytridiomycosis and seasonal mortality of tropical stream-associated frogs 15 years after introduction of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillott, Andrea D; Grogan, Laura F; Cashins, Scott D; McDonald, Keith R; Berger, Lee; Skerratt, Lee F

    2013-10-01

    Assessing the effects of diseases on wildlife populations can be difficult in the absence of observed mortalities, but it is crucial for threat assessment and conservation. We performed an intensive capture-mark-recapture study across seasons and years to investigate the effect of chytridiomycosis on demographics in 2 populations of the threatened common mist frog (Litoria rheocola) in the lowland wet tropics of Queensland, Australia. Infection prevalence was the best predictor for apparent survival probability in adult males and varied widely with season (0-65%). Infection prevalence was highest in winter months when monthly survival probabilities were low (approximately 70%). Populations at both sites exhibited very low annual survival probabilities (12-15%) but high recruitment (71-91%), which resulted in population growth rates that fluctuated seasonally. Our results suggest that even in the absence of observed mortalities and continued declines, and despite host-pathogen co-existence for multiple host generations over almost 2 decades, chytridiomycosis continues to have substantial seasonally fluctuating population-level effects on amphibian survival, which necessitates increased recruitment for population persistence. Similarly infected populations may thus be under continued threat from chytridiomycosis which may render them vulnerable to other threatening processes, particularly those affecting recruitment success. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  18. Aerosol optical properties and radiative effects over Manora Peak in the Himalayan foothills: seasonal variability and role of transported aerosols

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srivastava, A.K.; Ram, K.; Singh, Sachchidanand; Kumar, Sanjeev; Tiwari, S.

    2015-01-01

    The higher altitude regions of Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau are influenced by the dust and black carbon (BC) aerosols from the emissions and long-range transport from the adjoining areas. In this study, we present impacts of advection of polluted air masses of natural and anthropogenic emissions, on aerosol optical and radiative properties at Manora Peak (∼ 2000 m amsl) in central Himalaya over a period of more than two years (February 2006–May 2008). We used the most updated and comprehensive data of chemical and optical properties available in one of the most climatically sensitive region, the Himalaya, to estimate atmospheric radiative forcing and heating rate. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) was found to vary from 0.04 to 0.45 with significantly higher values in summer mainly due to an increase in mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols due to transport. In contrast, single scattering albedo (SSA) varied from 0.74 to 0.88 with relatively lower values during summer, suggesting an increase in absorbing BC and mineral dust aerosols. As a result, a large positive atmospheric radiative forcing (about 28 ± 5 Wm −2 ) and high values of corresponding heating rate (0.80 ± 0.14 Kday −1 ) has been found during summer. During the entire observation period, radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere varied from − 2 to + 14 Wm −2 and from − 3 to − 50 Wm −2 at the surface whereas atmospheric forcing was in the range of 3 to 65 Wm −2 resulting in a heating rate of 0.1–1.8 Kday −1 . - Highlights: • Aerosol chemical and optical properties at Manora Peak, in central Himalaya, were significantly affected by dust and black carbon (BC) aerosols from the emissions and long-range transport from the adjoining areas. • Elevated AOD and lower SSA values were observed at Manora Peak during summer. • Enhancement in absorbing aerosols was observed during summer. • Large aerosol radiative forcing and heating rate was observed over the station in the

  19. Aerosol optical properties and radiative effects over Manora Peak in the Himalayan foothills: seasonal variability and role of transported aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Srivastava, A.K. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (Branch), Prof Ramnath Vij Marg, New Delhi (India); Ram, K. [Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi (India); Singh, Sachchidanand, E-mail: ssingh@nplindia.org [Radio and Atmospheric Sciences Division, CSIR-National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi (India); Kumar, Sanjeev [Radio and Atmospheric Sciences Division, CSIR-National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi (India); Tiwari, S. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (Branch), Prof Ramnath Vij Marg, New Delhi (India)

    2015-01-01

    The higher altitude regions of Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau are influenced by the dust and black carbon (BC) aerosols from the emissions and long-range transport from the adjoining areas. In this study, we present impacts of advection of polluted air masses of natural and anthropogenic emissions, on aerosol optical and radiative properties at Manora Peak (∼ 2000 m amsl) in central Himalaya over a period of more than two years (February 2006–May 2008). We used the most updated and comprehensive data of chemical and optical properties available in one of the most climatically sensitive region, the Himalaya, to estimate atmospheric radiative forcing and heating rate. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) was found to vary from 0.04 to 0.45 with significantly higher values in summer mainly due to an increase in mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols due to transport. In contrast, single scattering albedo (SSA) varied from 0.74 to 0.88 with relatively lower values during summer, suggesting an increase in absorbing BC and mineral dust aerosols. As a result, a large positive atmospheric radiative forcing (about 28 ± 5 Wm{sup −2}) and high values of corresponding heating rate (0.80 ± 0.14 Kday{sup −1}) has been found during summer. During the entire observation period, radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere varied from − 2 to + 14 Wm{sup −2} and from − 3 to − 50 Wm{sup −2} at the surface whereas atmospheric forcing was in the range of 3 to 65 Wm{sup −2} resulting in a heating rate of 0.1–1.8 Kday{sup −1}. - Highlights: • Aerosol chemical and optical properties at Manora Peak, in central Himalaya, were significantly affected by dust and black carbon (BC) aerosols from the emissions and long-range transport from the adjoining areas. • Elevated AOD and lower SSA values were observed at Manora Peak during summer. • Enhancement in absorbing aerosols was observed during summer. • Large aerosol radiative forcing and heating rate was observed

  20. Annual Survey of Horsehair Worm Cysts in Northern Taiwan, with Notes on a Single Seasonal Infection Peak in Chironomid Larvae (Diptera: Chironomidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Ming-Chung; Huang, Chin-Gi; Wu, Wen-Jer; Shiao, Shiuh-Feng

    2016-06-01

    The life cycle of the freshwater horsehair worm typically includes a free-living phase (adult, egg, larva) and a multiple-host parasitic phase (aquatic paratenic host, terrestrial definitive host). Such a life cycle involving water and land can improve energy flow in riparian ecosystems; however, its temporal dynamics in nature have rarely been investigated. This study examined seasonal infection with cysts in larval Chironominae (Diptera: Chironomidae) in northern Taiwan. In the larval chironomids, cysts of 3 horsehair worm species were identified. The cysts of the dominant species were morphologically similar to those of Chordodes formosanus. Infection with these cysts increased suddenly and peaked 2 mo after the reproductive season of the adult horsehair worms. Although adult C. formosanus emerged several times in a year, only 1 distinct infection peak was detected in September in the chironomid larvae. Compared with the subfamily Chironominae, samples from the subfamilies Tanypodinae and Orthocladiinae were less parasitized. This indicates that the feeding behavior of the chironomid host likely affects horsehair worm cyst infections; however, bioconcentration in predatory chironomids was not detected.

  1. Use of post-thaw semen quality parameters to predict fertility of water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) bull during peak breeding season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, H; Andrabi, S M H; Anwar, M; Jahan, S

    2017-05-01

    This study was designed to predict the fertility of water buffalo bull using post-thaw semen quality parameters during peak breeding season. Thirty ejaculates were collected from five bulls with artificial vagina and cryopreserved. At post-thaw, semen was analysed for motility parameters, velocity distribution, kinematics, DNA integrity/fragmentation, viability, mitochondrial transmembrane potential, morphology, plasma membrane and acrosome integrity. Data of 514 inseminations were collected for estimation of in vivo fertility. Pearson's correlation coefficients showed that progressive motility (PM), rapid velocity, average path velocity, straight line velocity, straightness, supravital plasma membrane integrity, viable spermatozoon with intact acrosome or with high mitochondrial activity were correlated with in vivo fertility (r = .81, p fertility was PM. However, combinations of semen quality parameters to predict fertility were better as compared to single parameter. In conclusion, fertility of buffalo bull can be predicted through some of the post-thaw in vitro semen quality tests during peak breeding season. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  2. Modelling seasonal effects of temperature and precipitation on honey bee winter mortality in a temperate climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switanek, Matthew; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo; Brodschneider, Robert

    2017-02-01

    Insect pollinators are essential to global food production. For this reason, it is alarming that honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations across the world have recently seen increased rates of mortality. These changes in colony mortality are often ascribed to one or more factors including parasites, diseases, pesticides, nutrition, habitat dynamics, weather and/or climate. However, the effect of climate on colony mortality has never been demonstrated. Therefore, in this study, we focus on longer-term weather conditions and/or climate's influence on honey bee winter mortality rates across Austria. Statistical correlations between monthly climate variables and winter mortality rates were investigated. Our results indicate that warmer and drier weather conditions in the preceding year were accompanied by increased winter mortality. We subsequently built a statistical model to predict colony mortality using temperature and precipitation data as predictors. Our model reduces the mean absolute error between predicted and observed colony mortalities by 9% and is statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. This is the first study to show clear evidence of a link between climate variability and honey bee winter mortality. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Late Noachian Icy Highlands climate model: Exploring the possibility of transient melting and fluvial/lacustrine activity through peak annual and seasonal temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palumbo, Ashley M.; Head, James W.; Wordsworth, Robin D.

    2018-01-01

    The nature of the Late Noachian climate of Mars remains one of the outstanding questions in the study of the evolution of martian geology and climate. Despite abundant evidence for flowing water (valley networks and open/closed basin lakes), climate models have had difficulties reproducing mean annual surface temperatures (MAT) > 273 K in order to generate the ;warm and wet; climate conditions presumed to be necessary to explain the observed fluvial and lacustrine features. Here, we consider a ;cold and icy; climate scenario, characterized by MAT ∼225 K and snow and ice distributed in the southern highlands, and ask: Does the formation of the fluvial and lacustrine features require continuous ;warm and wet; conditions, or could seasonal temperature variation in a ;cold and icy; climate produce sufficient summertime ice melting and surface runoff to account for the observed features? To address this question, we employ the 3D Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique global climate model (LMD GCM) for early Mars and (1) analyze peak annual temperature (PAT) maps to determine where on Mars temperatures exceed freezing in the summer season, (2) produce temperature time series at three valley network systems and compare the duration of the time during which temperatures exceed freezing with seasonal temperature variations in the Antarctic McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) where similar fluvial and lacustrine features are observed, and (3) perform a positive-degree-day analysis to determine the annual volume of meltwater produced through this mechanism, estimate the necessary duration that this process must repeat to produce sufficient meltwater for valley network formation, and estimate whether runoff rates predicted by this mechanism are comparable to those required to form the observed geomorphology of the valley networks. When considering an ambient CO2 atmosphere, characterized by MAT ∼225 K, we find that: (1) PAT can exceed the melting point of water (>273 K) in

  4. Blooming rhythms of cactus Cereus peruvianus with nocturnal peak at full moon during seasons of prolonged daytime photoperiod.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben-Attia, Mossadok; Reinberg, Alain; Smolensky, Michael H; Gadacha, Wafa; Khedaier, Achraf; Sani, Mamane; Touitou, Yvan; Boughamni, Néziha Ghanem

    2016-01-01

    Cereus peruvianus (Peruvian apple cactus) is a large erect and thorny succulent cactus characterized by column-like (cereus [L]: column), that is, candle-shaped, appendages. For three successive years (1100 days), between early April and late November, we studied the flowering patterns of eight cacti growing in public gardens and rural areas of north and central Tunisia, far from nighttime artificial illumination, in relation to natural environmental light, temperature, relative humidity and precipitation parameters. Flower blooming was assessed nightly between 23:00 h and until at least 02:00 h, and additionally around-the-clock at ~1 h intervals for 30 consecutive days during the late summer of each year of study to quantify both nyctohemeral (day-night) and lunar patterns. During the summer months of prolonged daytime photoperiod, flower blooming of C. peruvianus exhibited predictable-in-time variation as "waves" with average period of 29.5 days synchronized by the light of the full moon. The large-sized flower (~16 cm diameter) opens almost exclusively at night, between sunset and sunrise, as a 24 h rhythm during a specific 3-4-day span of the lunar cycle (full moon), with a strong correlation between moon phase and number and proportion of flowers in bloom (ranging from r = +0.59 to +0.91). Black, blue and red cotton sheets were used to filter specific spectral bands of nighttime moonlight from illuminating randomly selected plant appendages as a means to test the hypothesis of a "gating" 24 h rhythm phenomenon of photoreceptors at the bud level. Relative to control conditions (no light filtering), black sheet covering inhibited flower bud induction by 87.5%, red sheet covering by 46.6% and blue sheet covering by 34%, and the respective inhibiting effects on number of flowers in bloom were essentially 100%, ~81% and ~44%. C. peruvianus is a unique example of a terrestrial plant that exhibits a circadian flowering rhythm (peak ~00:00 h) "gated" by 24 h, lunar

  5. Seasonal Patterns of Sporophyte Growth, Fertility, Fouling, and Mortality of Saccharina latissima in Skagerrak, Norway: Implications for Forest Recovery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guri Sogn Andersen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available On the Skagerrak coast the kelp Saccharina latissima has suffered severe stand reductions over the last decade, resulting in loss of important habitats. In the present study, healthy kelp plants were transplanted into four deforested areas and their patterns of growth, reproduction, and survival were monitored through subsequent seasons. Our main objective was to establish whether the kelp plants were able to grow and mature in deforested areas. We observed normal patterns of growth and maturation at all study sites. However, heavy fouling by epiphytes occurred each summer, followed by high kelp mortality. The study shows that the seasonal variations and the life stage timing of S. latissima make formation of self-sustainable populations impossible in the present environment. Most noteworthy, we suggest that fouling by epiphytes is involved in the lack of kelp forest recovery in Skagerrak, Norway.

  6. Direct and indirect mortality in Florida during the 2004 hurricane season

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, Nathan; Houser, Chris; Meyer-Arendt, Klaus

    2011-07-01

    Previous studies have shown that natural disasters, and hurricanes in particular, have led to more deaths than those usually documented in short post-storm surveys. Such indirect deaths, thought to be related to dietary, stress or pre-existing medical conditions, can exceed the number of direct deaths and may persist for weeks or even months beyond the event itself. In the present study, cumulative sum of deviations plots are used to quantify the number of direct and indirect deaths resulting from Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne that made landfall in Florida in 2004. Results suggest that there was an elevated mortality for up to 2 months following each storm, resulting in a total of 624 direct and indirect deaths attributable to the storm. Trauma-related deaths that can be associated directly with the storm account for only ˜4% of the total storm-related mortality, while indirect mortality accounts for most storm-related deaths. Specifically, a large percentage of the elevated mortality was associated with heart (34%) and cancer-related deaths (19%), while diabetes (5%) and accident-related deaths (9%) account for a smaller but still significant percentage of the elevated mortality. The results further suggest that the elevated mortality was the result of additional deaths that would not have otherwise occurred within that 5 month period, and not simply a clustering of deaths that were inevitable between 1 August and 31 December 2004. The elevated mortality identified in this study is significantly greater than the official count of 31 direct and 113 indirect deaths resulting from the four hurricanes combined. This suggests a need for improved mortality counts and surveillance in order to better evaluate and identify effective prevention policies, and to identify preventable deaths.

  7. Trend and Seasonal Patterns of Injuries and Mortality Due to Motorcyclists Traffic Accidents; A Hospital-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseinpour, Marjan; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah; Esmaeilpour Aghdam, Mohammad; Mohammadian, Mahdi; Maleki, Farzad

    2017-01-01

    To investigate trend and seasonal pattern of occurrence and mortality of motorcycle accidents in patients referred to hospitals of Isfahan. This cross-sectional study was carried out using traffic accidents data of Isfahan province, extracted from Ministry of Health (MOH) database from 2006 to 2010. During the study period, 83648 people injured due to motorcycle traffic accidents were referred to hospitals, all of them entered in the study. Logistic regression model was used to calculate the hospital mortality odds ratio, and Cochrane-Armitage test was used for assessment of linear trend. During the study period, the hospital admission for motorcycle accident was 83,648 and 89.3% (74743) of them were men. Mean age in accidents time was 26.41±14.3 years. The injuries and death sex ratio were 8.4 and 16.9, respectively. Lowest admission rate was during autumn and highest during summer. The injury mortality odds ratio was 1.01 (CI 95% 0.73-1.39) in the Spring, 1.34 (CI95% 1.01-1.79) in summer and 1.17 (CI95% 0.83-1.63). It was also calculated to be 2.51 (CI95% 1.36-4.64) in age group 40-49, 2.39 (CI95% 1.51-5.68) in 50-59 and 4.79 (CI95% 2.49-9.22) in 60-69 years. The mortality odds ratio was 3.53 (CI95% 2.77-4.5) in rural place, 1.33 (CI95% 1.15-1.54) in men, and 2.44 (CI95% 2.09-2.85) in the road out of town and village. In addition, trend of motorcycle accidents mortality was increasing ( p accidents injuries are more common in men, summer, young age and rural roads. These high risk groups need more attention, care and higher training.

  8. Association of Seasonal Climate Variability and Age-Specific Mortality in Northern Sweden before the Onset of Industrialization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joacim Rocklöv

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims: Little is known about health impacts of climate in pre-industrial societies. We used historical data to investigate the association of temperature and precipitation with total and age-specific mortality in Skellefteå, northern Sweden, between 1749 and 1859. Methods: We retrieved digitized aggregated population data of the Skellefteå parish, and monthly temperature and precipitation measures. A generalized linear model was established for year to year variability in deaths by annual and seasonal average temperature and cumulative precipitation using a negative binomial function, accounting for long-term trends in population size. The final full model included temperature and precipitation of all four seasons simultaneously. Relative risks (RR with 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated for total, sex- and age-specific mortality. Results: In the full model, only autumn precipitation proved statistically significant (RR 1.02; CI 1.00–1.03, per 1cm increase of autumn precipitation, while winter temperature (RR 0.98; CI 0.95–1.00, per 1 °C increase in temperature and spring precipitation (RR 0.98; CI 0.97–1.00 per 1 cm increase in precipitation approached significance. Similar effects were observed for men and women. The impact of climate variability on mortality was strongest in children aged 3–9, and partly also in older children. Infants, on the other hand, appeared to be less affected by unfavourable climate conditions. Conclusions: In this pre-industrial rural region in northern Sweden, higher levels of rain during the autumn increased the annual number of deaths. Harvest quality might be one critical factor in the causal pathway, affecting nutritional status and susceptibility to infectious diseases. Autumn rain probably also contributed to the spread of air-borne diseases in crowded living conditions. Children beyond infancy appeared most vulnerable to climate impacts.

  9. Morbidity, Mortality, and Seasonality of Influenza Hospitalizations in Egypt, November 2007-November 2014

    OpenAIRE

    Kandeel, Amr; Dawson, Patrick; Labib, Manal; Said, Mayar; El-Refai, Samir; El-Gohari, Amani; Talaat, Maha

    2016-01-01

    Background Influenza typically comprises a substantial portion of acute respiratory infections, a leading cause of mortality worldwide. However, influenza epidemiology data are lacking in Egypt. We describe seven years of Egypt?s influenza hospitalizations from a multi-site influenza surveillance system. Methods Syndromic case definitions identified individuals with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) admitted to eight hospitals in Egypt. Standardized demographic and clinical data were ...

  10. Malaria prevalence defined by microscopy, antigen detection, DNA amplification and total nucleic acid amplification in a malaria-endemic region during the peak malaria transmission season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waitumbi, John N; Gerlach, Jay; Afonina, Irina; Anyona, Samuel B; Koros, Joseph N; Siangla, Joram; Ankoudinova, Irina; Singhal, Mitra; Watts, Kate; Polhemus, Mark E; Vermeulen, Nicolaas M; Mahoney, Walt; Steele, Matt; Domingo, Gonzalo J

    2011-07-01

    To determine the malaria prevalence by microscopy, antigen detection and nucleic acid detection in a defined subpopulation in a Plasmodium falciparum-endemic region during the peak transmission season. Blood specimens were collected in a cross-sectional study involving children aged 5-10 years (n = 195) presenting with acute fever to two clinics in Western Kenya. All specimens underwent microscopy, HRP2 and aldolase antigen detection by enzyme immunoassay (EIA), parasite-specific DNA and total nucleic acid (RNA and DNA) by real-time PCR (qPCR) and reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR). Microscopy detected 65/195 cases of malaria infection [95% confidence interval (CI) 52-78]. HRP2 and aldolase EIA had similar sensitivity levels detecting antigen in 65/195 (95% CI, 52-78) and 57/195 (95% CI, 45-70) cases. Discordants in antigen detection vs. microscopy occurred at Detection of total nucleic acid allowed a 3 log lower limit of detection than just DNA detection by real-time PCR in vitro. In clinical specimens, 114/195 (95% CI, 100-127) were qPCR positive (DNA), and 187/195 (95% CI, 179-191) were qRT-PCR positive (DNA plus RNA). The prevalence of submicroscopic malaria infection was significantly higher when detecting total nucleic acid than just DNA in this outpatient population during the high transmission season. Defining standards for submicroscopic infection will be important for control programmes, diagnostics development efforts and molecular epidemiology studies. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  11. Mortality Associated With Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza Among Pregnant and Nonpregnant Women of Childbearing Age in a High-HIV-Prevalence Setting-South Africa, 1999-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tempia, Stefano; Walaza, Sibongile; Cohen, Adam L; von Mollendorf, Claire; Moyes, Jocelyn; McAnerney, Johanna M; Cohen, Cheryl

    2015-10-01

    Information on the mortality burden associated with seasonal and pandemic influenza virus infection among pregnant women is scarce in most settings, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where pregnancy and maternal mortality rates as well as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence are elevated. We used an ecological study design to estimate the seasonal and A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza-associated mortality among pregnant and nonpregnant women of childbearing age (15-49 years) by HIV serostatus during 1999-2009 in South Africa. Mortality rates were expressed per 100 000 person-years. During 1999-2009, the estimated mean annual seasonal influenza-associated mortality rates were 12.6 (123 deaths) and 7.3 (914 deaths) among pregnant and nonpregnant women, respectively. Among pregnant women, the estimated mean annual seasonal influenza-associated mortality rates were 74.9 (109 deaths) among HIV-infected and 1.5 (14 deaths) among HIV-uninfected individuals. Among nonpregnant women, the estimated mean annual seasonal influenza-associated mortality rate was 41.2 (824 deaths) among HIV-infected and 0.9 (90 deaths) among HIV-uninfected individuals. Pregnant women experienced an increased risk of seasonal influenza-associated mortality compared with nonpregnant women (relative risk [RR], 2.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-3.9). In 2009, the estimated influenza A(H1N1)pdm09-associated mortality rates were 19.3 (181 deaths) and 9.4 (1189 deaths) among pregnant and nonpregnant women, respectively (RR, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.3-4.1). Among women of childbearing age, the majority of estimated seasonal influenza-associated deaths occurred in HIV-infected individuals. Pregnant women experienced an increased risk of death associated with seasonal and A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza infection compared with nonpregnant women. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Spatial Patterns in Biogeochemical Processes During Peak Growing Season in Oiled and Unoiled Louisiana Salt Marshes: A Multi-Year Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chelsky, A.; Marton, J. M.; Bernhard, A. E.; Giblin, A. E.; Setta, S. P.; Hill, T. D.; Roberts, B. J.

    2016-02-01

    Louisiana salt marshes are important sites for carbon and nitrogen cycling because they can mitigate fluxes of nutrients and carbon to the Gulf of Mexico where a large hypoxic zone develops annually. The aim of this study was to investigate spatial and temporal patterns of biogeochemical processes in Louisiana coastal wetlands during peak growing season, and to investigate whether the Deepwater Horizon oil spill resulted in persistent changes to these rates. We measured nitrification potential and sediment characteristics at two pairs of oiled/unoiled marshes in three regions across the Louisiana coast (Terrebonne and east and west Barataria Bay) in July from 2012 to 2015, with plots along a gradient from the salt marsh edge to the interior. Rates of nitrification potential across the coast (overall mean of 901 ± 115 nmol gdw-1 d-1 from 2012-2014) were high compared to other published rates for salt marshes but displayed high variability at the plot level (4 orders of magnitude). Within each region interannual means varied by factors of 2-5. Nitrification potential did not differ with oiling history, but did display consistent spatial patterns within each region that corresponded to changes in relative elevation and inundation, which influence patterns of soil properties and microbial communities. In 2015, we also measured greenhouse gas (CO2, N2O and CH4) production and denitrification enzyme activity rates in addition to nitrification potential across the region to investigate spatial relationships between these processes.

  13. Seasonal growth and mortality of juveniles of Lampsilis fasciola (Bivalvia: Unionidae) released to a fish hatchery raceway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanlon, Shane D.; Neves, Richard J.

    2006-01-01

    Recent efforts to restore remnant or extirpated populations of freshwater mussels have focused on artificial propagation as an effective and practical conservation strategy. Although artificially cultured juveniles have been produced and released to the wild at various times of the year, no study has investigated the best time of year to release these juveniles. Newly metamorphosed juveniles of the wavyrayed lampmussel (Lampsilis fasciola) were released into a stream-fed fish hatchery raceway during March, June, and September. Growth and survival rates were measured 32, 52, 72, and 92 days post-metamorphosis. Juveniles released in June experienced the greatest growth and survival rates. Juveniles released in September and March experienced high mortality within the first month of release and exhibited poor growth in the cool water conditions typical of those seasons. Overwinter survival exhibited a size-dependent relationship.

  14. Acute effects of particulate matter and black carbon from seasonal fires on peak expiratory flow of schoolchildren in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludmilla da Silva Viana Jacobson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Panel studies have shown adverse effects of air pollution from biomass burning on children's health. This study estimated the effect of current levels of outdoor air pollution in the Amazonian dry season on peak expiratory flow (PEF. METHODS: A panel study with 234 schoolchildren from 6 to 15 years old living in the municipality of Tangará da Serra, Brazil was conducted. PEF was measured daily in the dry season in 2008. Mixed-effects models and unified modelling repeated for every child were applied. Time trends, temperature, humidity, and subject characteristics were regarded. Inhalable particulate matter (PM10, fine particulate matter (PM2.5, and black carbon (BC effects were evaluated based on 24-hour exposure lagged by 1 to 5 days and the averages of 2 or 3 days. Polynomial distributed lag models (PDLM were also applied. RESULTS: The analyses revealed reductions in PEF for PM10 and PM2.5 increases of 10 µg/m(3 and 1 µg/m(3 for BC. For PM10, the reductions varied from 0.15 (confidence interval (CI95%: -0.29; -0.01 to 0.25 l/min (CI95%: -0.40; -0.10. For PM2.5, they ranged from 0.46 (CI95%: -0.86 to -0.06 to 0.54 l/min (CI95%:-0.95; -0.14. As for BC, the reduction was approximately 1.40 l/min. In relation to PDLM, adverse effects were noticed in models based on the exposure on the current day through the previous 3 days (PDLM 0-3 and on the current day through the previous 5 days (PDLM 0-5, specially for PM10. For all children, for PDLM 0-5 the global effect was important for PM10, with PEF reduction of 0.31 l/min (CI95%: -0.56; -0.05. Also, reductions in lags 3 and 4 were observed. These associations were stronger for children between 6 and 8 years old. CONCLUSION: Reductions in PEF were associated with air pollution, mainly for lagged exposures of 3 to 5 days and for younger children.

  15. Mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in France: comparison to seasonal influenza and the A/H3N2 pandemic.

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    Magali Lemaitre

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons. METHODS: We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic. RESULTS: The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI 0.2-1.9 excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43-45 for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3-3.7 for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5-24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years. CONCLUSIONS: The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable

  16. Tree mortality from fire and bark beetles following early and late season prescribed fires in a Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwilk, Dylan W.; Knapp, Eric E.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Keeley, Jon E.; Caprio, Anthony C.

    2006-01-01

    Over the last century, fire exclusion in the forests of the Sierra Nevada has allowed surface fuels to accumulate and has led to increased tree density. Stand composition has also been altered as shade tolerant tree species crowd out shade intolerant species. To restore forest structure and reduce the risk of large, intense fires, managers have increasingly used prescription burning. Most fires prior to EuroAmerican settlement occurred during the late summer and early fall and most prescribed burning has taken place during the latter part of this period. Poor air quality and lack of suitable burn windows during the fall, however, have resulted in a need to conduct more prescription burning earlier in the season. Previous reports have suggested that burning during the time when trees are actively growing may increase mortality rates due to fine root damage and/or bark beetle activity. This study examines the effects of fire on tree mortality and bark beetle attacks under prescription burning during early and late season. Replicated early season burn, late season burn and unburned control plots were established in an old-growth mixed conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada that had not experienced a fire in over 120 years. Although prescribed burns resulted in significant mortality of particularly the smallest tree size classes, no difference between early and late season burns was detected. Direct mortality due to fire was associated with fire intensity. Secondary mortality due to bark beetles was not significantly correlated with fire intensity. The probability of bark beetle attack on pines did not differ between early and late season burns, while the probability of bark beetle attack on firs was greater following early season burns. Overall tree mortality appeared to be primarily the result of fire intensity rather than tree phenology at the time of the burns. Early season burns are generally conducted under higher fuel moisture conditions, leading to less fuel

  17. Seasonal variations of U.S. mortality rates: Roles of solar ultraviolet-B doses, vitamin D, gene exp ression, and infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, William B; Bhattoa, Harjit Pal; Boucher, Barbara J

    2017-10-01

    Death rates in the U.S. show a pronounced seasonality. The broad seasonal variation shows about 25% higher death rates in winter than in summer with an additional few percent increase associated with the Christmas and New Year's holidays. A pronounced increase in death rates also starts in mid-September, shortly after the school year begins. The causes of death with large contributions to the observed seasonality include diseases of the circulatory system; the respiratory system; the digestive system; and endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases. Researchers have identified several factors showing seasonal variation that could possibly explain the seasonal variations in mortality rate. These factors include seasonal variations in solar ultraviolet-B(UVB) doses and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations, gene expression, ambient temperature and humidity, UVB effects on environmental pathogen load, environmental pollutants and allergens, and photoperiod (or length of day). The factors with the strongest support in this analysis are seasonal variations in solar UVB doses and 25(OH)D concentrations. In the U.S., population mean 25(OH)D concentrations range from 21ng/mL in March to 28ng/mL in August. Measures to ensure that all people had 25(OH)D concentrations >36ng/mL year round would probably reduce death rates significantly. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Influenza activity in Europe during eight seasons (1999–2007: an evaluation of the indicators used to measure activity and an assessment of the timing, length and course of peak activity (spread across Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meijer Adam

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS has collected clinical and virological data on influenza since 1996 in an increasing number of countries. The EISS dataset was used to characterise important epidemiological features of influenza activity in Europe during eight winters (1999–2007. The following questions were addressed: 1 are the sentinel clinical reports a good measure of influenza activity? 2 how long is a typical influenza season in Europe? 3 is there a west-east and/or south-north course of peak activity ('spread' of influenza in Europe? Methods Influenza activity was measured by collecting data from sentinel general practitioners (GPs and reports by national reference laboratories. The sentinel reports were first evaluated by comparing them to the laboratory reports and were then used to assess the timing and spread of influenza activity across Europe during eight seasons. Results We found a good match between the clinical sentinel data and laboratory reports of influenza collected by sentinel physicians (overall match of 72% for +/- 1 week difference. We also found a moderate to good match between the clinical sentinel data and laboratory reports of influenza from non-sentinel sources (overall match of 60% for +/- 1 week. There were no statistically significant differences between countries using ILI (influenza-like illness or ARI (acute respiratory disease as case definition. When looking at the peak-weeks of clinical activity, the average length of an influenza season in Europe was 15.6 weeks (median 15 weeks; range 12–19 weeks. Plotting the peak weeks of clinical influenza activity reported by sentinel GPs against the longitude or latitude of each country indicated that there was a west-east spread of peak activity (spread of influenza across Europe in four winters (2001–2002, 2002–2003, 2003–2004 and 2004–2005 and a south-north spread in three winters (2001–2002, 2004–2005 and 2006

  19. Consequences of cool-season drought induced plant mortality to Chihuahuan Desert grassland ecosystem and soil respiration dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Global climate change is predicted to increase the severity and frequency of cool-season drought across the arid Southwest US. We quantified net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE), ecosystem respiration (Reco), and gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP) in response to interannual seasonal precip...

  20. Winter excess in hospital admissions, in-patient mortality and length of acute hospital stay in stroke: a hospital database study over six seasonal years in Norfolk, UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myint, Phyo K; Vowler, Sarah L; Woodhouse, Peter R; Redmayne, Oliver; Fulcher, Robert A

    2007-01-01

    Several studies have examined the incidence and mortality of stroke in relation to season. However, the evidence is conflicting partly due to variation in the populations (community vs. hospital-based), and in climatic conditions between studies. Moreover, they may not have been able to take into account the age, sex and stroke type of the study population. We hypothesized that the age, sex and type of stroke are major determinants of the presence or absence of winter excess in morbidity and mortality associated with stroke. We analyzed a hospital-based stroke register from Norfolk, UK to examine our prior hypothesis. Using Curwen's method, we performed stratified sex-specific analyses by (1) seasonal year and (2) quartiles of patients' age and stroke subtype and calculated the winter excess for the number of admissions, in-patient deaths and length of acute hospital stay. There were 5,481 patients (men=45%). Their ages ranged from 17 to 105 years (median=78 years). There appeared to be winter excess in hospital admissions, deaths and length of acute hospital stay overall accounting for 3/100,000 extra admissions (winter excess index of 3.4% in men and 7.6% in women) and 1/100,000 deaths (winter excess index of 4.7 and 8.6% in women) due to stroke in winter compared to non-winter periods. Older patients with non-haemorrhagic stroke mainly contribute to this excess. If our findings are replicated throughout England and Wales, it is estimated that there are 1,700 excess admissions, 600 excess in-patient deaths and 24,500 extra acute hospital bed days each winter, related to stroke within the current population of approximately 60 million. Further research should be focused on the determinants of winter excess in morbidity and mortality associated with stroke. This may subsequently reduce the morbidity and mortality by providing effective preventive strategies in future. (c) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  1. Changes in Allergy Symptoms and Depression Scores Are Positively Correlated In Patients With Recurrent Mood Disorders Exposed to Seasonal Peaks in Aeroallergens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodor T. Postolache

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Although growing evidence supports an association between allergy, allergens and depression, it remains unknown if this relationship is between “states” (possible triggers or “traits” (possible vulnerabilities. We hypothesized that patients with recurrent mood disorders who are sensitized to tree pollen (as determined by allergen specific IgE antibodies, in comparison to those who are not sensitized, would report larger negative changes in mood during exposure to tree pollen in spring. We also hypothesized that differences between high and low tree pollen periods in self reported allergy symptoms would correlate positively with differences in self reported depression scores. We present 1-year preliminary data on the first 51 patients with unipolar or bipolar disorder (age: 19-63 years, 65% female, twelve patients were tree-pollen IgE positive. Ratings of mood and allergic disease status were performed once during the peak airborne pollen counts and once during the period of low airborne pollen counts, as reported by two local pollen counting stations. Linear regression models were developed to examine associations of changes in depression scores (dependent variable with tree pollen sensitization, changes in the allergy symptom severity score, adjusted for gender and order of testing. We did not confirm the hypothesized relationship between a specific tree pollen sensitization and changes in mood during tree pollen exposure. We did confirm the hypothesized positive relationship between the changes in allergy symptoms and changes in subjects' depression scores (adjusted p<0.05. This result is consistent with previous epidemiological evidence connecting allergy with depression, as well as our recent reports of increased expression of cytokines in the prefrontal cortex in victims of suicide and in experimental animals sensitized and exposed to tree pollen. A relationship between changes in allergy symptom scores and changes in depression

  2. 'Peak oil' or 'peak demand'?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Bruno; Moncomble, Jean-Eudes; Sigonney, Pierre; Vially, Rolland; Bosseboeuf, Didier; Chateau, Bertrand

    2012-01-01

    This article reports a workshop which addressed several energy issues like the objectives and constraints of energy mix scenarios, the differences between the approaches in different countries, the cost of new technologies implemented for this purposes, how these technologies will be developed and marketed, which will be the environmental and societal acceptability of these technical choices. Different aspects and issues have been more precisely presented and discussed: the peak oil, development of shale gases and their cost (will non conventional hydrocarbons modify the peak oil and be socially accepted?), energy efficiency (its benefits, its reality in France and other countries, its position in front of the challenge of energy transition), and strategies in the transport sector (challenges for mobility, evolution towards a model of sustainable mobility)

  3. First Ground-Based Infrared Solar Absorption Measurements of Free Tropospheric Methanol (CH3OH): Multidecade Infrared Time Series from Kitt Peak (31.9 deg N 111.6 deg W): Trend, Seasonal Cycle, and Comparison with Previous Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinsland, Curtis P.; Mahieu, Emmanuel; Chiou, Linda; Herbin, Herve

    2009-01-01

    Atmospheric CH3OH (methanol) free tropospheric (2.09-14-km altitude) time series spanning 22 years has been analyzed on the basis of high-spectral resolution infrared solar absorption spectra of the strong vs band recorded from the U.S. National Solar Observatory on Kitt Peak (latitude 31.9degN, 111.6degW, 2.09-km altitude) with a 1-m Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS). The measurements span October 1981 to December 2003 and are the first long time series of CH3OH measurements obtained from the ground. The results were analyzed with SFIT2 version 3.93 and show a factor of three variations with season, a maximum at the beginning of July, a winter minimum, and no statistically significant long-term trend over the measurement time span.

  4. Modelled seasonal influenza mortality shows marked differences in risk by age, sex, ethnicity and socioeconomic position in New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khieu, Trang Q T; Pierse, Nevil; Telfar-Barnard, Lucy Frances; Zhang, Jane; Huang, Q Sue; Baker, Michael G

    2017-09-01

    Influenza is responsible for a large number of deaths which can only be estimated using modelling methods. Such methods have rarely been applied to describe the major socio-demographic characteristics of this disease burden. We used quasi Poisson regression models with weekly counts of deaths and isolates of influenza A, B and respiratory syncytial virus for the period 1994 to 2008. The estimated average mortality rate was 13.5 per 100,000 people which was 1.8% of all deaths in New Zealand. Influenza mortality differed markedly by age, sex, ethnicity and socioeconomic position. Relatively vulnerable groups were males aged 65-79 years (Rate ratio (RR) = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.9, 1.9 compared with females), Māori (RR = 3.6, 95% CI: 3.6, 3.7 compared with European/Others aged 65-79 years), Pacific (RR = 2.4, 95% CI: 2.4, 2.4 compared with European/Others aged 65-79 years) and those living in the most deprived areas (RR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.3, 2.4) for New Zealand Deprivation (NZDep) 9&10 (the most deprived) compared with NZDep 1&2 (the least deprived). These results support targeting influenza vaccination and other interventions to the most vulnerable groups, in particular Māori and Pacific people and men aged 65-79 years and those living in the most deprived areas. Copyright © 2017 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Human mortality seasonality in Castile-León, Spain, between 1980 and 1998: the influence of temperature, pressure and humidity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Raga, María; Tomás, Clemente; Fraile, Roberto

    2010-07-01

    This study was carried out in the region of Castile and Leon, Spain, from 1980 to 1998 and analyzes the relationship between the number of monthly deaths caused by cardiovascular, respiratory and digestive diseases and three meteorological variables: temperature, pressure and humidity. One of the innovations in this study is the application of principal component analysis in a way that differs from its usual application: one single series representing the whole region was constructed for each meteorological variable from the series of eight weather stations. Annual and seasonal mortality trends were also studied. Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in Castile and Leon. The mortality related to cardiovascular, respiratory and digestive systems shows a statistically significant rising trend across the study period (an annual increase of 6, 16 and 4‰, respectively). The pressure at which mortality is lowest is approximately the same for all causes of death (about 915 hPa), but temperature values vary greatly (16.8-19.7°C for the mean, 10.9-18.1°C for the minimum, and 24.1-27.2°C for the maximum temperature). The most comfortable temperatures for patients with cardiovascular diseases (16.8°C) are apparently lower than those for patients with respiratory diseases (18.1°C), which are, in turn, lower than in the case of diseases of the digestive system (19.7°C). Finally, the optimal humidity for patients with respiratory diseases is the lowest (24%) among the diseases, and the highest (51%) corresponds to diseases of the digestive system, while the optimal relative humidity for the cardiovascular system is 45%.

  6. Season, sex, age, and education as modifiers of the effects of outdoor air pollution on daily mortality in Shanghai, China: The Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA) Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kan, Haidong; London, Stephanie J; Chen, Guohai; Zhang, Yunhui; Song, Guixiang; Zhao, Naiqing; Jiang, Lili; Chen, Bingheng

    2008-09-01

    Various factors can modify the health effects of outdoor air pollution. Prior findings about modifiers are inconsistent, and most of these studies were conducted in developed countries. We conducted a time-series analysis to examine the modifying effect of season, sex, age, and education on the association between outdoor air pollutants [particulate matter air pollution for the warm season (April-September) and cool season (October-March) separately. For total mortality, we examined the association stratified by sex and age. Stratified analysis by educational attainment was conducted for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Outdoor air pollution was associated with mortality from all causes and from cardiorespiratory diseases in Shanghai. An increase of 10 mug/m(3) in a 2-day average concentration of PM(10), SO(2), NO(2), and O(3) corresponds to increases in all-cause mortality of 0.25% [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.14-0.37), 0.95% (95% CI, 0.62-1.28), 0.97% (95% CI, 0.66-1.27), and 0.31% (95% CI, 0.04-0.58), respectively. The effects of air pollutants were more evident in the cool season than in the warm season, and females and the elderly were more vulnerable to outdoor air pollution. Effects of air pollution were generally greater in residents with low educational attainment (illiterate or primary school) compared with those with high educational attainment (middle school or above). Season, sex, age, and education may modify the health effects of outdoor air pollution in Shanghai. These findings provide new information about the effects of modifiers on the relationship between daily mortality and air pollution in developing countries and may have implications for local environmental and social policies.

  7. [Excess mortality associated with influenza in Spain in winter 2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    León-Gómez, Inmaculada; Delgado-Sanz, Concepción; Jiménez-Jorge, Silvia; Flores, Víctor; Simón, Fernando; Gómez-Barroso, Diana; Larrauri, Amparo; de Mateo Ontañón, Salvador

    2015-01-01

    An excess of mortality was detected in Spain in February and March 2012 by the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and the «European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action» program. The objective of this article was to determine whether this excess could be attributed to influenza in this period. Excess mortality from all causes from 2006 to 2012 were studied using time series in the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system, and Poisson regression in the European mortality surveillance system, as well as the FluMOMO model, which estimates the mortality attributable to influenza. Excess mortality due to influenza and pneumonia attributable to influenza were studied by a modification of the Serfling model. To detect the periods of excess, we compared observed and expected mortality. In February and March 2012, both the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and the European mortality surveillance system detected a mortality excess of 8,110 and 10,872 deaths (mortality ratio (MR): 1.22 (95% CI:1.21-1.23) and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.29-1.31), respectively). In the 2011-12 season, the FluMOMO model identified the maximum percentage (97%) of deaths attributable to influenza in people older than 64 years with respect to the mortality total associated with influenza (13,822 deaths). The rate of excess mortality due to influenza and pneumonia and respiratory causes in people older than 64 years, obtained by the Serfling model, also reached a peak in the 2011-2012 season: 18.07 and 77.20, deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. A significant increase in mortality in elderly people in Spain was detected by the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and by the European mortality surveillance system in the winter of 2012, coinciding with a late influenza season, with a predominance of the A(H3N2) virus, and a cold wave in Spain. This study suggests that influenza could have been one of the main factors contributing to the mortality excess

  8. Seasonal rhythms of seed rain and seedling emergence in two tropical rain forests in southern Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques, M C M; Oliveira, P E A M

    2008-09-01

    Seasonal tropical forests show rhythms in reproductive activities due to water stress during dry seasons. If both seed dispersal and seed germination occur in the best environmental conditions, mortality will be minimised and forest regeneration will occur. To evaluate whether non-seasonal forests also show rhythms, for 2 years we studied the seed rain and seedling emergence in two sandy coastal forests (flooded and unflooded) in southern Brazil. In each forest, one 100 x 30-m grid was marked and inside it 30 stations comprising two seed traps (0.5 x 0.5 m each) and one plot (2 x 2 m) were established for monthly monitoring of seed rain and a seedling emergence study, respectively. Despite differences in soil moisture and incident light on the understorey, flooded and unflooded forests had similar dispersal and germination patterns. Seed rain was seasonal and bimodal (peaks at the end of the wetter season and in the less wet season) and seedling emergence was seasonal and unimodal (peaking in the wetter season). Approximately 57% of the total species number had seedling emergence 4 or more months after dispersal. Therefore, both seed dormancy and the timing of seed dispersal drive the rhythm of seedling emergence in these forests. The peak in germination occurs in the wetter season, when soil fertility is higher and other phenological events also occur. The strong seasonality in these plant communities, even in this weakly seasonal climate, suggests that factors such as daylength, plant sensitivity to small changes in the environment (e.g. water and nutrient availability) or phylogenetic constraints cause seasonal rhythms in the plants.

  9. Reducing the threat of wildlife-vehicle collisions during peak tourism periods using a Roadside Animal Detection System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Molly K; Smith, Daniel J; Noss, Reed F

    2017-12-01

    Roadside Animal Detection Systems (RADS) aim to reduce the frequency of wildlife-vehicle collisions. Unlike fencing and wildlife passages, RADS do not attempt to keep animals off the road; rather, they attempt to modify driver behavior by detecting animals near the road and warning drivers with flashing signs. A RADS was installed in Big Cypress National Park (Florida, USA) in 2012 in response to an increased number of Florida panther mortalities. To assess driver response, we measured the speed of individual cars on the road when the RADS was active (flashing) and inactive (not flashing) during the tourist season (November-March) and the off-season (April-October), which vary dramatically in traffic volume. We also used track beds and camera traps to assess whether roadside activity of large mammal species varied between seasons. In the tourist season, the activation of the RADS caused a significant reduction in vehicle speed. However, this effect was not observed in the off-season. Track and camera data showed that the tourist season coincided with peak periods of activity for several large mammals of conservation interest. Drivers in the tourist season generally drove faster than those in the off-season, so a reduction in speed in response to the RADS is more beneficial in the tourist season. Because traffic volume and roadside activity of several species of conservation interest both peak during the tourist season, our study indicates that the RADS has the potential to reduce the number of accidents during this period of heightened risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Peak Experience Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Daniel G.; Evans, Jessica

    2010-01-01

    This paper emerges from the continued analysis of data collected in a series of international studies concerning Childhood Peak Experiences (CPEs) based on developments in understanding peak experiences in Maslow's hierarchy of needs initiated by Dr Edward Hoffman. Bridging from the series of studies, Canadian researchers explore collected…

  11. Plaice egg mortality: can we determine survivorschip?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dickey-Collas, M.; Fox, C.J.; Nash, R.D.M.; O'Brien, C.M.

    2003-01-01

    The daily mortality rate of cohorts of plaice eggs in the Irish Sea is estimated throughout the spawning season in 1995 and 2000, using general additive models of egg production. Daily mortality (z) was found to vary between 0.15 and 0.29. Mortality rates declined through the season in 1995 but not

  12. Peak-interviewet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raalskov, Jesper; Warming-Rasmussen, Bent

    Peak-interviewet er en særlig effektiv metode til at gøre ubevidste menneskelige ressourcer bevidste. Fokuspersonen (den interviewede) interviewes om en selvvalgt, personlig succesoplevelse. Terapeuten/coachen (intervieweren) spørger ind til processen, som ledte hen til denne succes. Herved afdæk...... fokuspersonen ønsker at tage op (nye mål eller nye processer). Nærværende workingpaper beskriver, hvad der menes med et peak-interview, peakinterviwets teoretiske fundament samt metodikken til at foretage et tillidsfuldt og effektiv peak-interview....

  13. Peak power ratio generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyer, R.D.

    A peak power ratio generator is described for measuring, in combination with a conventional power meter, the peak power level of extremely narrow pulses in the gigahertz radio frequency bands. The present invention in a preferred embodiment utilizes a tunnel diode and a back diode combination in a detector circuit as the only high speed elements. The high speed tunnel diode provides a bistable signal and serves as a memory device of the input pulses for the remaining, slower components. A hybrid digital and analog loop maintains the peak power level of a reference channel at a known amount. Thus, by measuring the average power levels of the reference signal and the source signal, the peak power level of the source signal can be determined.

  14. Seasonal Influenza: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Christina; Freedman, Marian

    2009-01-01

    Seasonal influenza is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. It also has major social and economic consequences in the form of high rates of absenteeism from school and work as well as significant treatment and hospitalization costs. In fact, annual influenza epidemics and the resulting deaths and lost days of productivity…

  15. Peak Oil, Peak Coal and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, J. W.

    2009-05-01

    Research on future climate change is driven by the family of scenarios developed for the IPCC assessment reports. These scenarios create projections of future energy demand using different story lines consisting of government policies, population projections, and economic models. None of these scenarios consider resources to be limiting. In many of these scenarios oil production is still increasing to 2100. Resource limitation (in a geological sense) is a real possibility that needs more serious consideration. The concept of 'Peak Oil' has been discussed since M. King Hubbert proposed in 1956 that US oil production would peak in 1970. His prediction was accurate. This concept is about production rate not reserves. For many oil producing countries (and all OPEC countries) reserves are closely guarded state secrets and appear to be overstated. Claims that the reserves are 'proven' cannot be independently verified. Hubbert's Linearization Model can be used to predict when half the ultimate oil will be produced and what the ultimate total cumulative production (Qt) will be. US oil production can be used as an example. This conceptual model shows that 90% of the ultimate US oil production (Qt = 225 billion barrels) will have occurred by 2011. This approach can then be used to suggest that total global production will be about 2200 billion barrels and that the half way point will be reached by about 2010. This amount is about 5 to 7 times less than assumed by the IPCC scenarios. The decline of Non-OPEC oil production appears to have started in 2004. Of the OPEC countries, only Saudi Arabia may have spare capacity, but even that is uncertain, because of lack of data transparency. The concept of 'Peak Coal' is more controversial, but even the US National Academy Report in 2007 concluded only a small fraction of previously estimated reserves in the US are actually minable reserves and that US reserves should be reassessed using modern methods. British coal production can be

  16. Field evaluation of a PfHRP-2/pLDH rapid diagnostic test and light microscopy for diagnosis and screening of falciparum malaria during the peak seasonal transmission in an endemic area in Yemen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alareqi, Lina M Q; Mahdy, Mohammed A K; Lau, Yee-Ling; Fong, Mun-Yik; Abdul-Ghani, Rashad; Ali, Arwa A; Cheong, Fei-Wen; Tawfek, Rehab; Mahmud, Rohela

    2016-01-28

    Malaria is a public health threat in Yemen, with 149,451 cases being reported in 2013. Of these, Plasmodium falciparum represents 99%. Prompt diagnosis by light microscopy (LM) and rapid diagnostic tests (RTDs) is a key element in the national strategy of malaria control. The heterogeneous epidemiology of malaria in the country necessitates the field evaluation of the current diagnostic strategies, especially RDTs. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate LM and an RDT, combining both P. falciparum histidine-rich protein-2 (PfHRP-2) and Plasmodium lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH), for falciparum malaria diagnosis and survey in a malaria-endemic area during the transmission season against nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) as the reference method. A household-based, cross-sectional malaria survey was conducted in Mawza District, a malaria-endemic area in Taiz governorate. A total of 488 participants were screened using LM and PfHRP-2/pLDH RDT. Positive samples (160) and randomly selected negative samples (52) by both RDT and LM were further analysed using 18S rRNA-based nested PCR. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of the RDT were 96.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 90.9-98.3), 56.0% (95% CI: 44.7-66.8), 76.3% (95% CI: 69.0-82.3), and 90.4% (95% CI: 78.8-96.8), respectively. On the other hand, LM showed sensitivity of 37.6% (95% CI: 29.6-46.3), specificity of 97.6% (95% CI: 91.7-99.7), PPV of 95.9% (95% CI: 86.3-98.9), and NPV of 51.3% (95% CI: 43.2-59.2). The sensitivity of LM dropped to 8.5% for detecting asymptomatic malaria. Malaria prevalence was 32.8% (32.1 and 37.5% for ≥10 and <10 years, respectively) with the RDT compared with 10.7% (10.8 and 9.4% for age groups of ≥10 and <10 years, respectively) with LM. Among asymptomatic malaria individuals, LM and RDT-based prevalence rates were 1.6 and 25.6%, respectively. However, rates of 88.2 and 94.1% of infection with P. falciparum were found

  17. Effect of season, late embryonic mortality and progesterone production on pregnancy rates in pluriparous buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis) after artificial insemination with sexed semen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campanile, Giuseppe; Vecchio, Domenico; Neglia, Gianluca; Bella, Antonino; Prandi, Alberto; Senatore, Elena M; Gasparrini, Bianca; Presicce, Giorgio A

    2013-03-01

    The use of sexed semen technology in buffaloes is nowadays becoming more and more accepted by farmers, to overcome the burden of unwanted male calves with related costs and to more efficiently improve production and genetic gain. The aim of this study was to verify the coupling of some variables on the efficiency of pregnancy outcome after deposition of sexed semen through AI. Pluriparous buffaloes from two different farms (N = 152) were screened, selected, and subjected to Ovsynch protocol for AI using nonsexed and sexed semen from four tested bulls. AI was performed in two distinct periods of the year: September to October and January to February. Neither farms nor bulls had a significant effect on pregnancy rates pooled from the two periods. The process for sexing sperm cells did not affect pregnancy rates at 28 days after AI, for nonsexed and sexed semen, respectively 44/73 (60.2%) and 50/79 (63.2%), P = 0.70, and at 45 days after AI, for nonsexed and sexed semen, respectively 33/73 (45.2%) and 33/79 (49.3%), P = 0.60. Pregnancy rate at 28 days after AI during the transitional period of January to February was higher when compared with September to October, respectively 47/67 (70.1%) versus 47/85 (55.2%), P = 0.06. When the same pregnant animals were checked at Day 45 after AI, the difference disappeared between the two periods, because of a higher embryonic mortality, respectively 32/67 (47.7%) versus 40/85 (47.0%), P = 0.93. Hematic progesterone concentration at Day 10 after AI did not distinguish animals pregnant at Day 28 that would or would not maintain pregnancy until Day 45 (P = 0.21). On the contrary, when blood samples were taken at Day 20 after AI, the difference in progesterone concentration between pregnant animals that would maintain their pregnancy until Day 45 was significant for both pooled (P = 0.00) and nonsexed (P = 0.00) and sexed semen (P = 0.09). A similar trend was reported when blood samples were taken at Day 25, being highly significant

  18. Peak regulation right

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Z. |; Ren, Z.; Li, Z.; Zhu, R.

    2005-01-01

    A peak regulation right concept and corresponding transaction mechanism for an electricity market was presented. The market was based on a power pool and independent system operator (ISO) model. Peak regulation right (PRR) was defined as a downward regulation capacity purchase option which allowed PRR owners to buy certain quantities of peak regulation capacity (PRC) at a specific price during a specified period from suppliers. The PRR owner also had the right to decide whether or not they would buy PRC from suppliers. It was the power pool's responsibility to provide competitive and fair peak regulation trading markets to participants. The introduction of PRR allowed for unit capacity regulation. The PRR and PRC were rated by the supplier, and transactions proceeded through a bidding process. PRR suppliers obtained profits by selling PRR and PRC, and obtained downward regulation fees regardless of whether purchases are made. It was concluded that the peak regulation mechanism reduced the total cost of the generating system and increased the social surplus. 6 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

  19. Variations in suicide method and in suicide occurrence by season and day of the week in Russia and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Northwestern Russia: a retrospective population-based mortality study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumarokov, Yury A; Brenn, Tormod; Kudryavtsev, Alexander V; Nilssen, Odd

    2015-09-23

    Suicide is an important world health issue, especially in territories inhabited by indigenous people. This investigated differences in suicide rates, suicide methods, and suicide occurrence by month and day of the week among the indigenous and non-indigenous populations of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (NAO) and to compare the findings from the NAO with national Russian statistics. In this retrospective population-based mortality study we investigated all suicides that occurred in the NAO in 2002-2012 (N = 252). Suicide method and the month and day of the week suicide occurred was taken from autopsy reports and disaggregated by ethnic group (indigenous and non-indigenous) and sex. Data from the NAO were then compared with national data from the Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat). Hanging was the most common suicide method in the NAO in both indigenous and non-indigenous populations. The proportion of suicides by hanging among males was lower in the NAO than in national data (69.3 vs 86.2 %), but the inverse was true for females (86.5 vs 74.9 %). Suicide by firearm and by cutting was significantly higher among the indigenous population in the NAO when compared with national data. Peaks in suicide occurrence were observed in May and September in the NAO, whereas national data showed only one peak in May. Suicide occurrence in the indigenous population of the NAO was highest in April, while the non-indigenous population showed peaks in May and September. Suicide occurrence in the NAO was highest on Fridays; in national data this occurrence was highest on Mondays. We showed different relative frequencies of suicide by hanging, cutting, and firearm, as well as different suicide occurrence by month and day of the week in the NAO compared with Russia as a whole. These results can be used to plan suicide prevention activities in the Russian Arctic.

  20. Make peak flow a habit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asthma - make peak flow a habit; Reactive airway disease - peak flow; Bronchial asthma - peak flow ... 2014:chap 55. National Asthma Education and Prevention Program website. How to use a peak flow meter. ...

  1. Automated asteroseismic peak detections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Montellano, Andres Garcia Saravia Ortiz; Hekker, S.; Themessl, N.

    2018-01-01

    Space observatories such as Kepler have provided data that can potentially revolutionize our understanding of stars. Through detailed asteroseismic analyses we are capable of determining fundamental stellar parameters and reveal the stellar internal structure with unprecedented accuracy. However......, such detailed analyses, known as peak bagging, have so far been obtained for only a small percentage of the observed stars while most of the scientific potential of the available data remains unexplored. One of the major challenges in peak bagging is identifying how many solar-like oscillation modes are visible...... of detected oscillation modes. The algorithm presented here opens the possibility for detailed and automated peak bagging of the thousands of solar-like oscillators observed by Kepler....

  2. Peak Longevity Physical Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    People who engage in three to five times the recommended minimum level of leisure-time physical activity derive the greatest benefit in terms of mortality reduction when compared with people who do not engage in leisure-time physical activity.

  3. Automated asteroseismic peak detections

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Saravia Ortiz de Montellano, Andrés; Hekker, S.; Themeßl, N.

    2018-05-01

    Space observatories such as Kepler have provided data that can potentially revolutionize our understanding of stars. Through detailed asteroseismic analyses we are capable of determining fundamental stellar parameters and reveal the stellar internal structure with unprecedented accuracy. However, such detailed analyses, known as peak bagging, have so far been obtained for only a small percentage of the observed stars while most of the scientific potential of the available data remains unexplored. One of the major challenges in peak bagging is identifying how many solar-like oscillation modes are visible in a power density spectrum. Identification of oscillation modes is usually done by visual inspection that is time-consuming and has a degree of subjectivity. Here, we present a peak-detection algorithm especially suited for the detection of solar-like oscillations. It reliably characterizes the solar-like oscillations in a power density spectrum and estimates their parameters without human intervention. Furthermore, we provide a metric to characterize the false positive and false negative rates to provide further information about the reliability of a detected oscillation mode or the significance of a lack of detected oscillation modes. The algorithm presented here opens the possibility for detailed and automated peak bagging of the thousands of solar-like oscillators observed by Kepler.

  4. Seasonal variation in thoracic vessel calcifications: Evidence from a chest computed tomography study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vehmas, Tapio; Leino-Arjas, Paeivi (Health and Work Ability, Finnish Inst. of Occupational Health, Helsinki (Finland)), e-mail: tapio.vehmas@ttl.fi; Hiltunen, Asta (Dept. of Radiology, Central Hospital of Laensi-Pohja, Kemi (Finland))

    2010-01-15

    Background: Cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality exhibit a winter peak and a summer trough, a fact that could have radiological manifestations. Purpose: To identify possible seasonal trends in the occurrence of thoracic vessel calcifications. Material and Methods: 505 male construction workers (aged 39-80 years) were each imaged once with chest spiral computed tomography (CT) during a 2-year period. Based on visual assessment of calcified plaques (0=no, 1=slight, 2=moderate, 3=extensive calcification), sum scores of atherosclerosis in coronary arteries, in the thoracic aorta, in the pre-cervical artery bases, and overall were constructed. The scores were regressed on the annual rank number of the CT day. Results: By using the cubic regression model, seasonal variation in calcified plaques in coronary arteries (P=0.003), in pre-cervical artery origins (P=0.015), and in the overall sum score (P=0.004) was observed. The peak occurred in January-February and the nadir in August. Depending on the model, about 2-3% of the variation in atherosclerotic calcifications could be explained by the season of imaging. Conclusion: The observed seasonal trend in calcifications parallels with mortality reports. Seasonal variations should be considered in atherosclerosis treatment studies. Confirmatory studies using modern imaging technology are needed in different countries and geographical locations, preferably with repeat imaging of the same individuals

  5. Seasonality of Suicidal Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Jong-Min; Okusaga, Olaoluwa; Postolache, Teodor T.

    2012-01-01

    A seasonal suicide peak in spring is highly replicated, but its specific cause is unknown. We reviewed the literature on suicide risk factors which can be associated with seasonal variation of suicide rates, assessing published articles from 1979 to 2011. Such risk factors include environmental determinants, including physical, chemical, and biological factors. We also summarized the influence of potential demographic and clinical characteristics such as age, gender, month of birth, socioeconomic status, methods of prior suicide attempt, and comorbid psychiatric and medical diseases. Comprehensive evaluation of risk factors which could be linked to the seasonal variation in suicide is important, not only to identify the major driving force for the seasonality of suicide, but also could lead to better suicide prevention in general. PMID:22470308

  6. Daily Nigerian peak load forecasting using artificial neural network ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A daily peak load forecasting technique that uses artificial neural network with seasonal indices is presented in this paper. A neural network of relatively smaller size than the main prediction network is used to predict the daily peak load for a period of one year over which the actual daily load data are available using one ...

  7. Infant Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... After hours (404) 639-2888 Contact Media Infant Mortality Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir On This ... differences in rates among population groups. About Infant Mortality Infant mortality is the death of an infant ...

  8. Peak reading detector circuit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Courtin, E.; Grund, K.; Traub, S.; Zeeb, H.

    1975-01-01

    The peak reading detector circuit serves for picking up the instants during which peaks of a given polarity occur in sequences of signals in which the extreme values, their time intervals, and the curve shape of the signals vary. The signal sequences appear in measuring the foetal heart beat frequence from amplitude-modulated ultrasonic, electrocardiagram, and blood pressure signals. In order to prevent undesired emission of output signals from, e. g., disturbing intermediate extreme values, the circuit consists of the series connections of a circuit to simulate an ideal diode, a strong unit, a discriminator for the direction of charging current, a time-delay circuit, and an electronic switch lying in the decharging circuit of the storage unit. The time-delay circuit thereby causes storing of a preliminary maximum value being used only after a certain time delay for the emission of the output signal. If a larger extreme value occurs during the delay time the preliminary maximum value is cleared and the delay time starts running anew. (DG/PB) [de

  9. Tree Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Ambrose

    2012-01-01

    Tree mortality is a natural process in all forest ecosystems. However, extremely high mortality also can be an indicator of forest health issues. On a regional scale, high mortality levels may indicate widespread insect or disease problems. High mortality may also occur if a large proportion of the forest in a particular region is made up of older, senescent stands....

  10. Mortality Trends of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in the United States from 1999 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochi, Shea E; Kempker, Jordan A; Annangi, Srinadh; Kramer, Michael R; Martin, Greg S

    2016-10-01

    Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is an acute hypoxemic respiratory failure seen in critically ill patients after an inciting injury. The burden of ARDS mortality in the United States in recent years is not well characterized. In this study, we aimed to describe trends in the annual incidence of ARDS mortality in the United States from 1999 to 2013. We also describe demographic characteristics, geographic and seasonal trends, and other associated underlying causes of death in this population. Data on all deceased U.S. residents are available through the Multiple Cause of Death (MCOD) database of the National Center for Health Statistics. ARDS-related deaths were identified in the MCOD database using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision. Aggregate annual crude and age-adjusted mortality rates and mortality rate ratios were used to compare various demographic subpopulations. Over the 15-year period, the national ARDS-related age-adjusted mortality rate demonstrated an annual seasonal variation, peaking in winter. The annual rate decreased in a nonlinear fashion, with a plateau from 2010 to 2013. The ARDS-related age-adjusted mortality rate was 5.01 per 100,000 persons (95% confidence interval, 4.92-5.09) in 1999 and 2.82 per 100,000 persons (95% confidence interval, 2.76-2.88) in 2013. Males had a higher average ARDS-related mortality rate than did females. Asian/Pacific Islanders had the lowest average age-adjusted ARDS-related mortality rate, and black/African-American individuals, the highest. National age-adjusted ARDS-related mortality rates decreased between 1999 and 2013 in the United States, yet still show relative racial and sex disparities. However, death certificates largely underestimate the overall mortality burden from ARDS when compared with studies of clinically ascertained cases.

  11. Occupational mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynge, Elsebeth

    2011-01-01

    -1975 revealed a considerable social class gradient in male mortality where university teachers and farmers had a 40% lower mortality and waiters and seamen had an about 100% higher mortality than the average for economically active men. The social class gradient was less steep for women. A similar pattern...

  12. Seasonal patterns in human A (H5N1 virus infection: analysis of global cases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maya B Mathur

    Full Text Available Human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI A (H5N1 have high mortality. Despite abundant data on seasonal patterns in influenza epidemics, it is unknown whether similar patterns exist for human HPAI H5N1 cases worldwide. Such knowledge could help decrease avian-to-human transmission through increased prevention and control activities during peak periods.We performed a systematic search of published human HPAI H5N1 cases to date, collecting month, year, country, season, hemisphere, and climate data. We used negative binomial regression to predict changes in case incidence as a function of season. To investigate hemisphere as a potential moderator, we used AIC and the likelihood-ratio test to compare the season-only model to nested models including a main effect or interaction with hemisphere. Finally, we visually assessed replication of seasonal patterns across climate groups based on the Köppen-Geiger climate classification.We identified 617 human cases (611 with complete seasonal data occurring in 15 countries in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Case occurrence was much higher in winter (n = 285, p = 0.03 than summer (n = 64, and the winter peak occurred across diverse climate groups. There was no significant interaction between hemisphere and season.Across diverse climates, HPAI H5N1 virus infection in humans increases significantly in winter. This is consistent with increased poultry outbreaks and HPAI H5N1 virus transmission during cold and dry conditions. Prioritizing prevention and control activities among poultry and focusing public health messaging to reduce poultry exposures during winter months may help to reduce zoonotic transmission of HPAI H5N1 virus in resource-limited settings.

  13. Potential Impact of Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention on the Acquisition of Antibodies Against Glutamate-Rich Protein and Apical Membrane Antigen 1 in Children Living in Southern Senegal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ndiaye, Magatte; Sylla, Khadime; Sow, Doudou

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is defined as the intermittent administration of full treatment courses of an antimalarial drug to children during the peak of malaria transmission season with the aim of preventing malaria-associated mortality and morbidity. SMC using sulfadoxine-pyrimetham......Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is defined as the intermittent administration of full treatment courses of an antimalarial drug to children during the peak of malaria transmission season with the aim of preventing malaria-associated mortality and morbidity. SMC using sulfadoxine......-pyrimethamine (SP) combined with amodiaquine (AQ) is a promising strategy to control malaria morbidity in areas of highly seasonal malaria transmission. However, a concern is whether SMC can delay the natural acquisition of immunity toward malaria parasites in areas with intense SMC delivery. To investigate this......, total IgG antibody (Ab) responses to Plasmodium falciparum antigens glutamate-rich protein R0 (GLURP-R0) and apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA-1) were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in Senegalese children under the age of 10 years in 2010 living in Saraya and Velingara districts (with SMC...

  14. Seasonality in cholera dynamics: A rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns in endemic areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baracchini, Theo; King, Aaron A.; Bouma, Menno J.; Rodó, Xavier; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Pascual, Mercedes

    2017-10-01

    Seasonal patterns in cholera dynamics exhibit pronounced variability across geographical regions, showing single or multiple peaks at different times of the year. Although multiple hypotheses related to local climate variables have been proposed, an understanding of this seasonal variation remains incomplete. The historical Bengal region, which encompasses the full range of cholera's seasonality observed worldwide, provides a unique opportunity to gain insights on underlying environmental drivers. Here, we propose a mechanistic, rainfall-temperature driven, stochastic epidemiological model which explicitly accounts for the fluctuations of the aquatic reservoir, and analyze with this model the historical dataset of cholera mortality in the Bengal region. Parameters are inferred with a recently developed sequential Monte Carlo method for likelihood maximization in partially observed Markov processes. Results indicate that the hydrological regime is a major driver of the seasonal dynamics of cholera. Rainfall tends to buffer the propagation of the disease in wet regions due to the longer residence times of water in the environment and an associated dilution effect, whereas it enhances cholera resurgence in dry regions. Moreover, the dynamics of the environmental water reservoir determine whether the seasonality is unimodal or bimodal, as well as its phase relative to the monsoon. Thus, the full range of seasonal patterns can be explained based solely on the local variation of rainfall and temperature. Given the close connection between cholera seasonality and environmental conditions, a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms would allow the better management and planning of public health policies with respect to climate variability and climate change.

  15. Upper limit of peak area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helene, O.A.M.

    1982-08-01

    The determination of the upper limit of peak area in a multi-channel spectra, with a known significance level is discussed. This problem is specially important when the peak area is masked by the background statistical fluctuations. The problem is exactly solved and, thus, the results are valid in experiments with small number of events. The results are submitted to a Monte Carlo test and applied to the 92 Nb beta decay. (Author) [pt

  16. Peak Oil and other threatening peaks-Chimeras without substance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radetzki, Marian

    2010-01-01

    The Peak Oil movement has widely spread its message about an impending peak in global oil production, caused by an inadequate resource base. On closer scrutiny, the underlying analysis is inconsistent, void of a theoretical foundation and without support in empirical observations. Global oil resources are huge and expanding, and pose no threat to continuing output growth within an extended time horizon. In contrast, temporary or prolonged supply crunches are indeed plausible, even likely, on account of growing resource nationalism denying access to efficient exploitation of the existing resource wealth.

  17. Electricity Portfolio Management: Optimal Peak / Off-Peak Allocations

    OpenAIRE

    Huisman, Ronald; Mahieu, Ronald; Schlichter, Felix

    2007-01-01

    textabstractElectricity purchasers manage a portfolio of contracts in order to purchase the expected future electricity consumption profile of a company or a pool of clients. This paper proposes a mean-variance framework to address the concept of structuring the portfolio and focuses on how to allocate optimal positions in peak and off-peak forward contracts. It is shown that the optimal allocations are based on the difference in risk premiums per unit of day-ahead risk as a measure of relati...

  18. Ultrasonic Transducer Peak-to-Peak Optical Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Skarvada

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Possible optical setups for measurement of the peak-to-peak value of an ultrasonic transducer are described in this work. The Michelson interferometer with the calibrated nanopositioner in reference path and laser Doppler vibrometer were used for the basic measurement of vibration displacement. Langevin type of ultrasonic transducer is used for the purposes of Electro-Ultrasonic Nonlinear Spectroscopy (EUNS. Parameters of produced mechanical vibration have to been well known for EUNS. Moreover, a monitoring of mechanical vibration frequency shift with a mass load and sample-transducer coupling is important for EUNS measurement.

  19. Peaking-factor of PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morioka, Noboru; Kato, Yasuji; Yokoi, M.

    1975-01-01

    Output peaking factor often plays an important role in the safety and operation of nuclear reactors. The meaning of the peaking factor of PWRs is categorized into two features or the peaking factor in core (FQ-core) and the peaking factor on the basis of accident analysis (or FQ-limit). FQ-core is the actual peaking factor realized in nuclear core at the time of normal operation, and FQ-limit should be evaluated from loss of coolant accident and other abnormal conditions. If FQ-core is lower than FQ-limit, the reactor may be operated at full load, but if FQ-core is larger than FQ-limit, reactor output should be controlled lower than FQ-limit. FQ-core has two kinds of values, or the one on the basis of nuclear design, and the other actually measured in reactor operation. The first FQ-core should be named as FQ-core-design and the latter as FQ-core-measured. The numerical evaluation of FQ-core-design is as follows; FQ-core-design of three-dimensions is synthesized with FQ-core horizontal value (X-Y) and FQ-core vertical value, the former one is calculated with ASSY-CORE code, and the latter one with one dimensional diffusion code. For the evaluation of FQ-core-measured, on-site data observation from nuclear reactor instrumentation or off-site data observation is used. (Iwase, T.)

  20. How to use your peak flow meter

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... meter - how to use; Asthma - peak flow meter; Reactive airway disease - peak flow meter; Bronchial asthma - peak ... 2014:chap 55. National Asthma Education and Prevention Program website. How to use a peak flow meter. ...

  1. Peak effect in twinned superconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larkin, A.I.; Marchetti, M.C.; Vinokur, V.M.

    1995-01-01

    A sharp maximum in the critical current J c as a function of temperature just below the melting point of the Abrikosov flux lattice has recently been observed in both low- and high-temperature superconductors. This peak effect is strongest in twinned crystals for fields aligned with the twin planes. We propose that this peak signals the breakdown of the collective pinning regime and the crossover to strong pinning of single vortices on the twin boundaries. This crossover is very sharp and can account for the steep drop of the differential resistivity observed in experiments. copyright 1995 The American Physical Society

  2. Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Joe H., III

    2010-01-01

    The expected peak wind speed of the day is an important forecast element in the 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts. The forecasts are used for ground and space launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45 WS also issues wind advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect wind gusts to meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated peak wind speeds are challenging to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October - April. In Phase I of this task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool to help the 45 WS forecast non-convective winds at KSC/CCAFS for the 24-hour period of 0800 to 0800 local time. The tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI displayed the forecast of peak wind speed, 5-minute average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, timing of the peak wind and probability the peak speed would meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. For the current task (Phase II ), the 45 WS requested additional observations be used for the creation of the forecast equations by expanding the period of record (POR). Additional parameters were evaluated as predictors, including wind speeds between 500 ft and 3000 ft, static stability classification, Bulk Richardson Number, mixing depth, vertical wind shear, temperature inversion strength and depth and wind direction. Using a verification data set, the AMU compared the performance of the Phase I and II prediction methods. Just as in Phase I, the tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel GUI. The 45 WS requested the tool also be available in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The AMU first expanded the POR by two years by adding tower observations, surface observations and CCAFS (XMR) soundings for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The POR was expanded

  3. Hubbert's Peak -- A Physicist's View

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Richard

    2011-04-01

    Oil, as used in agriculture and transportation, is the lifeblood of modern society. It is finite in quantity and will someday be exhausted. In 1956, Hubbert proposed a theory of resource production and applied it successfully to predict peak U.S. oil production in 1970. Bartlett extended this work in publications and lectures on the finite nature of oil and its production peak and depletion. Both Hubbert and Bartlett place peak world oil production at a similar time, essentially now. Central to these analyses are estimates of total ``oil in place'' obtained from engineering studies of oil reservoirs as this quantity determines the area under the Hubbert's Peak. Knowing the production history and the total oil in place allows us to make estimates of reserves, and therefore future oil availability. We will then examine reserves data for various countries, in particular OPEC countries, and see if these data tell us anything about the future availability of oil. Finally, we will comment on synthetic oil and the possibility of carbon-neutral synthetic oil for a sustainable future.

  4. Cancer mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, H.

    1986-01-01

    The Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) and its predecessor, the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission (ABCC), have conducted mortality surveillance on a fixed sample, the Life Span Study (LSS), of 82,000 atomic bomb survivors and 27,000 nonexposed residents of Hiroshima and Nagasaki since 1950. The results of the most recent analysis of the LSS are summarized

  5. Flu season and trehalose

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robbins RA

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of us who are practicing medicine know that we are in a very active flu season. This was brought home to me when last week trying to admit a patient to the hospital from the office. She was a bone marrow transplant patient who had severe diarrhea and dehydration probably secondary to C. difficile. Hospital admissions said the patient had to be sent to the Emergency Room because the hospital was full due to the flu epidemic. Nationwide there has been a dramatic increase in the number of hospitalizations due to influenza over the past week from 13.7 to 22.7 per 100,000 (1. Influenza A(H3N2 has been the most common form of influenza reported this season. These viruses are often linked to more severe illness, especially in children and people age 65 years and older. Fortunately, the CDC also says that the flu cases may be peaking. However, at ...

  6. SPANISH PEAKS PRIMITIVE AREA, MONTANA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calkins, James A.; Pattee, Eldon C.

    1984-01-01

    A mineral survey of the Spanish Peaks Primitive Area, Montana, disclosed a small low-grade deposit of demonstrated chromite and asbestos resources. The chances for discovery of additional chrome resources are uncertain and the area has little promise for the occurrence of other mineral or energy resources. A reevaluation, sampling at depth, and testing for possible extensions of the Table Mountain asbestos and chromium deposit should be undertaken in the light of recent interpretations regarding its geologic setting.

  7. Neurofeedback training for peak performance

    OpenAIRE

    Marek Graczyk; Maria Pąchalska; Artur Ziółkowski; Grzegorz Mańko; Beata Łukaszewska; Kazimierz Kochanowicz; Andrzej Mirski; Iurii D. Kropotov

    2014-01-01

    [b]aim[/b]. One of the applications of the Neurofeedback methodology is peak performance in sport. The protocols of the neurofeedback are usually based on an assessment of the spectral parameters of spontaneous EEG in resting state conditions. The aim of the paper was to study whether the intensive neurofeedback training of a well-functioning Olympic athlete who has lost his performance confidence after injury in sport, could change the brain functioning reflected in changes in spontaneou...

  8. Power peaking nuclear reliability factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, H.A.; Pegram, J.W.; Mays, C.W.; Romano, J.J.; Woods, J.J.; Warren, H.D.

    1977-11-01

    The Calculational Nuclear Reliability Factor (CNRF) assigned to the limiting power density calculated in reactor design has been determined. The CNRF is presented as a function of the relative power density of the fuel assembly and its radial local. In addition, the Measurement Nuclear Reliability Factor (MNRF) for the measured peak hot pellet power in the core has been evaluated. This MNRF is also presented as a function of the relative power density and radial local within the fuel assembly

  9. Evaluation of concurrent peak responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, P.C.; Curreri, J.; Reich, M.

    1983-01-01

    This report deals with the problem of combining two or more concurrent responses which are induced by dynamic loads acting on nuclear power plant structures. Specifically, the acceptability of using the square root of the sum of the squares (SRSS) value of peak values as the combined response is investigated. Emphasis is placed on the establishment of a simplified criterion that is convenient and relatively easy to use by design engineers

  10. Finding two-dimensional peaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silagadze, Z.K.

    2007-01-01

    Two-dimensional generalization of the original peak finding algorithm suggested earlier is given. The ideology of the algorithm emerged from the well-known quantum mechanical tunneling property which enables small bodies to penetrate through narrow potential barriers. We merge this 'quantum' ideology with the philosophy of Particle Swarm Optimization to get the global optimization algorithm which can be called Quantum Swarm Optimization. The functionality of the newborn algorithm is tested on some benchmark optimization problems

  11. Disease ecology of Hematodinium perezi in a high salinity estuary: investigating seasonal trends in environmental detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lycett, K A; Pitula, J S

    2017-05-11

    The blue crab Callinectes sapidus has seen a general decline in population levels. One factor influencing mortality is infections by Hematodinium perezi, a dinoflagellate parasite. A 2 yr study was conducted in 2014 and 2015 to monitor H. perezi DNA within the Maryland (USA) coastal bays, comparing seasonal cycles in the abundance of parasite DNA in environmental samples to parasite presence in host blue crabs. A late summer to early fall peak in H. perezi infections in blue crabs was observed, consistent with previous work. Infection intensities matched this trend, showing a slow progression of low intensity infections early in the year, with a peak in moderate and heavy infections occurring between July and September, for both years. It was hypothesized that the peak in water column occurrence would coincide with those months when infection intensities were highest in blue crabs. As the peaks in water column occurrence were in July 2014 and August-September 2015, this is consistent with sporulation being the primary contributor to environmental detection in summer months. An additional peak in environmental detection occurred in both years during the early spring months, the cause of which is currently unknown but may be related to infections in overwintering crabs or alternate hosts. Several new crustacean hosts were identified within this estuary, including grass shrimp Palaemonetes spp. and the sand shrimp Crangon septemspinosa, as well as the mud crab Dyspanopeus sayi. Improved knowledge of this disease system will allow for better management of this important fishery.

  12. Drivers of peak sales for pharmaceutical brands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fischer, Marc; Leeflang, Peter S. H.; Verhoef, Peter C.

    2010-01-01

    Peak sales are an important metric in the pharmaceutical industry. Specifically, managers are focused on the height-of-peak-sales and the time required achieving peak sales. We analyze how order of entry and quality affect the level of peak sales and the time-to-peak-sales of pharmaceutical brands.

  13. Influenza seasonality goes south in the Yucatan Peninsula: The case for a different influenza vaccine calendar in this Mexican region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayora-Talavera, Guadalupe; Flores, Gerardo Montalvo-Zurbia; Gómez-Carballo, Jesus; González-Losa, Refugio; Conde-Ferraez, Laura; Puerto-Solís, Marylin; López-Martínez, Irma; Díaz-Quiñonez, Alberto; Barrera-Badillo, Gisela; Acuna-Soto, Rodolfo; Livinski, Alicia A; Alonso, Wladimir J

    2017-08-24

    While vaccination may be relatively straightforward for regions with a well-defined winter season, the situation is quite different for tropical regions. Influenza activity in tropical regions might be out of phase with the dynamics predicted for their hemispheric group thereby impacting the effectiveness of the immunization campaign. To investigate how the climatic diversity of Mexico hinders its existing influenza immunization strategy and to suggest that the hemispheric vaccine recommendations be tailored to the regional level in order to optimize vaccine effectiveness. We studied the seasonality of influenza throughoutMexico by modeling virological and mortality data.De-trended time series of each Mexican state were analyzed by Fourier decomposition to describe the amplitude and timing of annual influenza epidemic cycles and to compare with each the timing of the WHO's Northern and Southern Hemispheric vaccination schedule. The timings of the primary (major) peaks of both virological and mortality data for most Mexican states are well aligned with the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) and vaccine schedule. However, influenza peaks in September in the three states of the Yucatan Peninsula. Influenza-related mortality also peaks in September in Quintana Roo and Yucatan whereas it peaks in May in Campeche. As the current timing of vaccination in Mexico is between October and November, more than half of the annual influenza cases have already occurred in the Yucatan Peninsula states by the time the Northern Hemispheric vaccine is delivered and administered. The current Northern Hemispheric influenza calendar adopted for Mexico is not optimal for the Yucatan Peninsula states thereby likely reducing the effectiveness of the immunization of the population. We recommend that Mexico tailor its immunization strategy to better reflect its climatologic and epidemiological diversity and adopt the WHO Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine and schedule for the

  14. Mortality Implications of Mortality Plateaus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Missov, T. I.; Vaupel, J. W.

    2015-01-01

    This article aims to describe in a unified framework all plateau-generating random effects models in terms of (i) plausible distributions for the hazard (baseline mortality) and the random effect (unobserved heterogeneity, frailty) as well as (ii) the impact of frailty on the baseline hazard...

  15. Spatial peak-load pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arellano, M. Soledad; Serra, Pablo

    2007-01-01

    This article extends the traditional electricity peak-load pricing model to include transmission costs. In the context of a two-node, two-technology electric power system, where suppliers face inelastic demand, we show that when the marginal plant is located at the energy-importing center, generators located away from that center should pay the marginal capacity transmission cost; otherwise, consumers should bear this cost through capacity payments. Since electric power transmission is a natural monopoly, marginal-cost pricing does not fully cover costs. We propose distributing the revenue deficit among users in proportion to the surplus they derive from the service priced at marginal cost. (Author)

  16. Hot Spots and Hot Times: Wildlife Road Mortality in a Regional Conservation Corridor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrah, Evelyn; Danby, Ryan K.; Eberhardt, Ewen; Cunnington, Glenn M.; Mitchell, Scott

    2015-10-01

    Strategies to reduce wildlife road mortality have become a significant component of many conservation efforts. However, their success depends on knowledge of the temporal and spatial patterns of mortality. We studied these patterns along the 1000 Islands Parkway in Ontario, Canada, a 37 km road that runs adjacent to the St. Lawrence River and bisects the Algonquin-to-Adirondacks international conservation corridor. Characteristics of all vertebrate road kill were recorded during 209 bicycle surveys conducted from 2008 to 2011. We estimate that over 16,700 vertebrates are killed on the road from April to October each year; most are amphibians, but high numbers of birds, mammals, and reptiles were also found, including six reptiles considered at-risk in Canada. Regression tree analysis was used to assess the importance of seasonality, weather, and traffic on road kill magnitude. All taxa except mammals exhibited distinct temporal peaks corresponding to phases in annual life cycles. Variations in weather and traffic were only important outside these peak times. Getis-Ord analysis was used to identify spatial clusters of mortality. Hot spots were found in all years for all taxa, but locations varied annually. A significant spatial association was found between multiyear hot spots and wetlands. The results underscore the notion that multi-species conservation efforts must account for differences in the seasonality of road mortality among species and that multiple years of data are necessary to identify locations where the greatest conservation good can be achieved. This information can be used to inform mitigation strategies with implications for conservation at regional scales.

  17. Influenza Seasonal Summary, 2014-2015 Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-14

    Influenza Seasonal Summarv 2014-2015 Season EpiData Center Department Communicable Disease Division NMCPHC-EDC-TR-394-2015 REPORT DOCUMENTATION... Influenza Seasonal Summary, 2014-2015 Season Sb. GRANT NUMBER $c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHORjS) Sd. PROJECT NUMBER Ashleigh K McCabe, Kristen R...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 1<l. ABSTRACT This report summartzes influenza activity among Department of Navy (DON) and Depar1ment of Defense (DOD

  18. Seasonality, mobility, and livability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-31

    Signature project 4a, Seasonality, Mobility, and Livability investigated the effects of weather, season, built environment, community amenities, attitudes, and demographics on mobility and quality of life (QOL). A four season panel survey exami...

  19. Effects of Extensive Beetle-Induced Forest Mortality on Aromatic Organic Carbon Loading and Disinfection Byproduct Formation Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brouillard, B.; Mikkelson, K. M.; Dickenson, E.; Sharp, J.

    2015-12-01

    Recent drought and warmer temperatures associated with climate change have caused increased pest-induced forest mortality with impacts on biogeochemical and hydrologic processes. To better understand the seasonal impacts of bark beetle infestation on water quality, samples were collected regularly over two overlapping snow free seasons at surface water intakes of six water treatment facilities in the Rocky Mountain region of Colorado displaying varying levels of bark beetle infestation (high >40%, moderate 20-40%, and low <20%). Organic carbon concentrations were typically 3 to 6 times higher in waters sourced from high beetle-impacted watersheds compared to moderate and low impact watersheds, revealing elevated specific ultraviolet absorbance, fluorescence, and humic-like intensity indicative of elevated aromatic carbon signatures. Accordingly, an increase in disinfection byproduct (DBP) formation potential of 400 to 600% was quantified when contrasted with watersheds containing less tree mortality. Beetle impact exasperated seasonal increases in carbon loading and DBP formation potential following both runoff and precipitation events indicating windows when enhanced water treatment may be utilized by water providers in highly infested regions. Additionally, elevated carbon concentrations throughout the summer and fall along with peaks following precipitation events provide evidence of shifting hydrologic flow paths in areas experiencing high forest mortality from decreased tree water uptake and interception. Collectively, these results demonstrate the need for continued watershed protection and monitoring with a changing climate as the resultant perturbations can have adverse effects on biogeochemistry and water quality in heavily impacted areas.

  20. Economic effects of peak oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutz, Christian; Lehr, Ulrike; Wiebe, Kirsten S.

    2012-01-01

    Assuming that global oil production peaked, this paper uses scenario analysis to show the economic effects of a possible supply shortage and corresponding rise in oil prices in the next decade on different sectors in Germany and other major economies such as the US, Japan, China, the OPEC or Russia. Due to the price-inelasticity of oil demand the supply shortage leads to a sharp increase in oil prices in the second scenario, with high effects on GDP comparable to the magnitude of the global financial crises in 2008/09. Oil exporting countries benefit from high oil prices, whereas oil importing countries are negatively affected. Generally, the effects in the third scenario are significantly smaller than in the second, showing that energy efficiency measures and the switch to renewable energy sources decreases the countries' dependence on oil imports and hence reduces their vulnerability to oil price shocks on the world market. - Highlights: ► National and sectoral economic effects of peak oil until 2020 are modelled. ► The price elasticity of oil demand is low resulting in high price fluctuations. ► Oil shortage strongly affects transport and indirectly all other sectors. ► Global macroeconomic effects are comparable to the 2008/2009 crisis. ► Country effects depend on oil imports and productivity, and economic structures.

  1. Spatial Ecology of Blanding’s Turtles (Emydoidea blandingii) in Southcentral New Hampshire with Implications to Road Mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walston, Leroy J.; Najjar, Stephen J.; LaGory, Kirk E.; Drake, Sean M.

    2015-06-27

    Understanding the spatial ecology and habitat requirements of rare turtle species and the factors that threaten their populations is important for the success of long-term conservation programs. We present results on an eight-year field study in which we used radiotelemetry to monitor the activity and habitat use of 23 adult (male, n = 7; female, n = 16) Blanding’s turtles in southcentral New Hampshire. We found that females occupied home ranges (as defined by minimum convex polygons) that were approximately two times larger than the home ranges of males. Despite the sex difference in home range size, we found no sex difference in core area size (defined as the 50% kernel density estimate). We found that activity patterns varied by season, with increased activity each month after hibernation, and peak activity coinciding with the late spring-early summer nesting season. We observed sex-based and seasonal differences in wetland use. Males appeared to prefer emergent and scrub-shrub wetlands in each season, whereas females preferred scrub-shrub wetlands in spring and ponds in summer and fall. We identified road mortality risk as a potentially important threat for this population because females crossed roads ten times more frequently than males (based on proportion of observations). The preservation of wetland networks, as well as the implementation of measures to minimize road mortality, are important considerations for the long-term persistence of this population.

  2. Deciphering infant mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrut, Sylvie; Pouillard, Violette; Richmond, Peter; Roehner, Bertrand M.

    2016-12-01

    This paper is about infant mortality. In line with reliability theory, "infant" refers to the time interval following birth during which the mortality (or failure) rate decreases. This definition provides a systems science perspective in which birth constitutes a sudden transition falling within the field of application of the Transient Shock (TS) conjecture put forward in Richmond and Roehner (2016c). This conjecture provides predictions about the timing and shape of the death rate peak. It says that there will be a death rate spike whenever external conditions change abruptly and drastically and also predicts that after a steep rise there will be a much longer hyperbolic relaxation process. These predictions can be tested by considering living organisms for which the transient shock occurs several days after birth. Thus, for fish there are three stages: egg, yolk-sac and young adult phases. The TS conjecture predicts a mortality spike at the end of the yolk-sac phase and this timing is indeed confirmed by observation. Secondly, the hyperbolic nature of the relaxation process can be tested using very accurate Swiss statistics for postnatal death rates spanning the period from one hour immediately after birth through to age 10 years. It turns out that since the 19th century despite a significant and large reduction in infant mortality, the shape of the age-specific death rate has remained basically unchanged. Moreover the hyperbolic pattern observed for humans is also found for small primates as recorded in the archives of zoological gardens. Our overall objective is to identify a series of cases which start from simple systems and move step by step to more complex organisms. The cases discussed here we believe represent initial landmarks in this quest.

  3. Preparing for the Season (A Cup of Health with CDC)

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Flu season starts in the fall and goes through the spring, typically peaking between January and March in the United States. In this podcast, Dr. Joe Bresee discusses the importance of getting vaccinated against the flu every year.

  4. Peaking for optimal performance: Research limitations and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyne, David B; Mujika, Iñigo; Reilly, Thomas

    2009-02-01

    A key element of the physical preparation of athletes is the taper period in the weeks immediately preceding competition. Existing research has defined the taper, identified various forms used in contemporary sport, and examined the prescription of training volume, load, intensity, duration, and type (progressive or step). Current limitations include: the lack of studies on team, combative, racquet, and precision (target) sports; the relatively small number of randomized controlled trials; the narrow focus on a single competition (single peak) compared with multiple peaking for weekly, multi-day or multiple events; and limited understanding of the physiological, neuromuscular, and biomechanical basis of the taper. Future research should address these limitations, together with the influence of prior training on optimal tapering strategies, and the interactions between the taper and long-haul travel, heat, and altitude. Practitioners seek information on how to prescribe tapers from season to season during an athlete's career, or a team's progression through a domestic league season, or multi-year Olympic or World Cup cycle. Practical guidelines for planning effective tapers for the Vancouver 2010 and London 2012 Olympics will evolve from both experimental investigations and modelling of successful tapers currently employed in a wide range of sports.

  5. Enhanced vegetation growth peak and its key mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, K.; Xia, J.; Wang, Y.; Ahlström, A.; Schwalm, C.; Huntzinger, D. N.; Chen, J.; Cook, R. B.; Fang, Y.; Fisher, J. B.; Jacobson, A. R.; Michalak, A.; Schaefer, K. M.; Wei, Y.; Yan, L.; Luo, Y.

    2017-12-01

    It remains unclear that whether and how the vegetation growth peak has been shifted globally during the past three decades. Here we used two global datasets of gross primary productivity (GPP) and a satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to characterize recent changes in seasonal peak vegetation growth. The attribution of changes in peak growth to their driving factors was examined with several datasets. We demonstrated that the growth peak of global vegetation has been linearly increasing during the past three decades. About 65% of this trend is evenly explained by the expanding croplands (21%), rising atmospheric [CO2] (22%), and intensifying nitrogen deposition (22%). The contribution of expanding croplands to the peak growth trend was substantiated by measurements from eddy-flux towers, sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and a global database of plant traits, all of which demonstrated that croplands have a higher photosynthetic capacity than other vegetation types. The contribution of rising atmospheric [CO2] and nitrogen deposition are consistent with the positive response of leaf growth to elevated [CO2] (25%) and nitrogen addition (8%) from 346 manipulated experiments. The positive effect of rising atmospheric [CO2] was also well captured by 15 terrestrial biosphere models. However, most models underestimated the contributions of land-cover change and nitrogen deposition, but overestimated the positive effect of climate change.

  6. Influence of peak flow changes on the macroinvertebrate drift downstream of a Brazilian hydroelectric dam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, D M P; Hughes, R M; Callisto, M

    2013-11-01

    Successive daily peak flows from hydropower plants can disrupt aquatic ecosystems and alter the composition and structure of macroinvertebrates downstream. We evaluated the influence of peak flow changes on macroinvertebrate drift downstream of a hydroelectric plant as a basis for determining ecological flows that might reduce the disturbance of aquatic biota. The aim of this study was to assess the influence of flow fluctuations on the seasonal and daily drift patterns of macroinvertebrates. We collected macroinvertebrates during fixed flow rates (323 m3.s-1 in the wet season and 111 m3.s-1 in the dry season) and when peak flows fluctuated (378 to 481 m3.s-1 in the wet season, and 109 to 173 m3.s-1 in the dry season) in 2010. We collected 31,924 organisms belonging to 46 taxa in the four sampling periods. Taxonomic composition and densities of drifting invertebrates differed between fixed and fluctuating flows, in both wet and dry seasons, but family richness varied insignificantly. We conclude that macroinvertebrate assemblages downstream of dams are influenced by daily peak flow fluctuations. When making environmental flow decisions for dams, it would be wise to consider drifting macroinvertebrates because they reflect ecological changes in downstream biological assemblages.

  7. Differences in Influenza Seasonality by Latitude, Northern India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broor, Shobha; Saha, Siddhartha; Barnes, John; Smith, Catherine; Shaw, Michael; Chadha, Mandeep; Lal, Renu B.

    2014-01-01

    The seasonality of influenza in the tropics complicates vaccination timing. We investigated influenza seasonality in northern India and found influenza positivity peaked in Srinagar (34.09°N) in January–March but peaked in New Delhi (28.66°N) in July–September. Srinagar should consider influenza vaccination in October–November, but New Delhi should vaccinate in May–June. PMID:25279651

  8. Establishment of peak bone mass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mora, Stefano; Gilsanz, Vicente

    2003-03-01

    Among the main areas of progress in osteoporosis research during the last decade or so are the general recognition that this condition, which is the cause of so much pain in the elderly population, has its antecedents in childhood and the identification of the structural basis accounting for much of the differences in bone strength among humans. Nevertheless, current understanding of the bone mineral accrual process is far from complete. The search for genes that regulate bone mass acquisition is ongoing, and current results are not sufficient to identify subjects at risk. However, there is solid evidence that BMD measurements can be helpful for the selection of subjects that presumably would benefit from preventive interventions. The questions regarding the type of preventive interventions, their magnitude, and duration remain unanswered. Carefully designed controlled trials are needed. Nevertheless, previous experience indicates that weight-bearing activity and possibly calcium supplements are beneficial if they are begun during childhood and preferably before the onset of puberty. Modification of unhealthy lifestyles and increments in exercise or calcium assumption are logical interventions that should be implemented to improve bone mass gains in all children and adolescents who are at risk of failing to achieve an optimal peak bone mass.

  9. Neurofeedback training for peak performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Graczyk

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available [b]aim[/b]. One of the applications of the Neurofeedback methodology is peak performance in sport. The protocols of the neurofeedback are usually based on an assessment of the spectral parameters of spontaneous EEG in resting state conditions. The aim of the paper was to study whether the intensive neurofeedback training of a well-functioning Olympic athlete who has lost his performance confidence after injury in sport, could change the brain functioning reflected in changes in spontaneous EEG and event related potentials (ERPs. [b]case study[/b]. The case is presented of an Olympic athlete who has lost his performance confidence after injury in sport. He wanted to resume his activities by means of neurofeedback training. His QEEG/ERP parameters were assessed before and after 4 intensive sessions of neurotherapy. Dramatic and statistically significant changes that could not be explained by error measurement were observed in the patient. [b]conclusion[/b]. Neurofeedback training in the subject under study increased the amplitude of the monitoring component of ERPs generated in the anterior cingulate cortex, accompanied by an increase in beta activity over the medial prefrontal cortex. Taking these changes together, it can be concluded that that even a few sessions of neurofeedback in a high performance brain can significantly activate the prefrontal cortical areas associated with increasing confidence in sport performance.

  10. Reactor power peaking information display

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Book, T.L.; Kochendarfer, R.A.

    1986-01-01

    This patent describes a system for monitoring operating conditions within a nuclear reactor. The system consists of a method for measuring the operating parameters within the nuclear reactor, including the position of axial power shaping rods and regulating control rod. It also includes a method for determining from the operating parameters the operating limits before a power peaking condition exists within the nuclear reactor, and a method for displaying the operating limits which consists of a visual display permitting the continuous monitoring of the operating conditions within the nuclear reactor as a graph of the shaping rod position vs the regulating rod position having a permissible area and a restricted area. The permissible area is further divided into a recommended operating area for steady state operation and a cursor located on the graph to indicate the present operating condition of the nuclear reactor to allow an operator to view any need for corrective action based on the movement of the cursor out of the recommended operating area and to take any corrective transient action within the permissible area

  11. Neurofeedback training for peak performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graczyk, Marek; Pąchalska, Maria; Ziółkowski, Artur; Mańko, Grzegorz; Łukaszewska, Beata; Kochanowicz, Kazimierz; Mirski, Andrzej; Kropotov, Iurii D

    2014-01-01

    One of the applications of the Neurofeedback methodology is peak performance in sport. The protocols of the neurofeedback are usually based on an assessment of the spectral parameters of spontaneous EEG in resting state conditions. The aim of the paper was to study whether the intensive neurofeedback training of a well-functioning Olympic athlete who has lost his performance confidence after injury in sport, could change the brain functioning reflected in changes in spontaneous EEG and event related potentials (ERPs). The case is presented of an Olympic athlete who has lost his performance confidence after injury in sport. He wanted to resume his activities by means of neurofeedback training. His QEEG/ERP parameters were assessed before and after 4 intensive sessions of neurotherapy. Dramatic and statistically significant changes that could not be explained by error measurement were observed in the patient. Neurofeedback training in the subject under study increased the amplitude of the monitoring component of ERPs generated in the anterior cingulate cortex, accompanied by an increase in beta activity over the medial prefrontal cortex. Taking these changes together, it can be concluded that that even a few sessions of neurofeedback in a high performance brain can significantly activate the prefrontal cortical areas associated with increasing confidence in sport performance.

  12. Pediatric Exercise Testing: Value and Implications of Peak Oxygen Uptake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo T. Pianosi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Peak oxygen uptake (peak V ˙ O 2 measured by clinical exercise testing is the benchmark for aerobic fitness. Aerobic fitness, estimated from maximal treadmill exercise, is a predictor of mortality in adults. Peak V ˙ O 2 was shown to predict longevity in patients aged 7–35 years with cystic fibrosis over 25 years ago. A surge of exercise studies in young adults with congenital heart disease over the past decade has revealed significant prognostic information. Three years ago, the first clinical trial in children with pulmonary arterial hypertension used peak V ˙ O 2 as an endpoint that likewise delivered clinically relevant data. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing provides clinicians with biomarkers and clinical outcomes, and researchers with novel insights into fundamental biological mechanisms reflecting an integrated physiological response hidden at rest. Momentum from these pioneering observations in multiple disease states should impel clinicians to employ similar methods in other patient populations; e.g., sickle cell disease. Advances in pediatric exercise science will elucidate new pathways that may identify novel biomarkers. Our initial aim of this essay is to highlight the clinical relevance of exercise testing to determine peak V ˙ O 2 , and thereby convince clinicians of its merit, stimulating future clinical investigators to broaden the application of exercise testing in pediatrics.

  13. Research Opportunities at Storm Peak Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallar, A. G.; McCubbin, I. B.

    2006-12-01

    The Desert Research Institute (DRI) operates a high elevation facility, Storm Peak Laboratory (SPL), located on the west summit of Mt. Werner in the Park Range near Steamboat Springs, Colorado at an elevation of 3210 m MSL (Borys and Wetzel, 1997). SPL provides an ideal location for long-term research on the interactions of atmospheric aerosol and gas- phase chemistry with cloud and natural radiation environments. The ridge-top location produces almost daily transition from free tropospheric to boundary layer air which occurs near midday in both summer and winter seasons. Long-term observations at SPL document the role of orographically induced mixing and convection on vertical pollutant transport and dispersion. During winter, SPL is above cloud base 25% of the time, providing a unique capability for studying aerosol-cloud interactions (Borys and Wetzel, 1997). A comprehensive set of continuous aerosol measurements was initiated at SPL in 2002. SPL includes an office-type laboratory room for computer and instrumentation setup with outside air ports and cable access to the roof deck, a cold room for precipitation and cloud rime ice sample handling and ice crystal microphotography, a 150 m2 roof deck area for outside sampling equipment, a full kitchen and two bunk rooms with sleeping space for nine persons. The laboratory is currently well equipped for aerosol and cloud measurements. Particles are sampled from an insulated, 15 cm diameter manifold within approximately 1 m of its horizontal entry point through an outside wall. The 4 m high vertical section outside the building is capped with an inverted can to exclude large particles.

  14. Contribution to performing gas solutions and the complementarity of energies to address electric peak consumptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    This article aims at outlining the contribution that gas-based solutions may have for the reduction of the seasonal electricity peak consumption. After having recalled the principles related to electricity peak consumption (daily peak in summer and in winter due to the use of various equipment which lasts few hours, seasonal peak in winter due to the use of electric heating which may last several weeks) and the associated evolution of electricity consumptions over the last years, this article describes the main challenges related to the electric peak consumption: how to maintain the balance in real time between production and consumption. In France, the network manager must use, beside nuclear power stations, thermal productions (gas or coal-based) which result in higher CO 2 emissions. Electricity imports from Germany also degrade the French carbon footprint. Thus, the management of daily and seasonal peaks can be based on three levers of action: to act on supply by developing capacities to face the residual peak, to act on demand by smoothing the load curve by controlling the load of electric equipment, or to act on demand by a global reduction of the thermo-sensitive consumption of electricity

  15. Seasonality of suicide deaths in Serbia, 1990-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Penev Goran

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the period from 1990 to 2012, there were 32,855 suicides registered in Serbia, i.e. an average of 1428 deaths per year (18.9 per 100.000 inhabitants. The suicides were the most frequent in the early 1990s, less frequent during the 2000s, and least frequent in the last three years of the observed period (2010-2012 - an average of 1237 suicides per year. Objective: The goal of this paper is to evaluate the seasonal variations of suicides in Serbia in the period of 1990-2012, their changes, as well as the accordance with findings from other countries. Method: In the paper are used "classical" statistical methods of evaluating cyclical variations (χ2-test, Edwards' test as well as some frequently used newer methods (e.g. the peak-low ratio. It also introduces a new indicator of the intensity of monthly variations in suicides (the magnitude of trimester variations of /12/ moving consecutive months index - the MtMV index. Seasonality of suicides is also observed by sex. Results: The results of the research of seasonality confirm that certain cyclical variations in mortality due to suicide are also present in Serbia. Observed by season, suicides are most frequent in spring and summer and less in winter. The cyclical nature was also clearly confirmed by month. Suicides are most frequent in "warm" months (April-August and far less frequent in "cold" months (December-February. By month, suicides are most frequent in May, while the maximal average number of suicides per day was calculated for June (21 % higher than the average for 1990-2012. December is singled out as the month with the lowest number as well as lowest daily average of suicides (25 % lower than the average. Conclusion: The cyclical nature of suicides is clearly notable during the entire observed period and no significant fluctuations or decrease in the intensity of the variation were observed. Regardless of the method of analysis, the resulting conclusions are identical

  16. Seasonal cycles of pelagic production and consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longhurst, Alan

    Comprehensive seasonal cycles of production and consumption in the pelagial require the ocean to be partitioned. This can be done rationally at two levels: into four primary ecological domains (three oceanic and one coastal), or about fifty biogeochemical provinces. The domains differ in their characteristic seasonal cycles of stability, nutrient supply and illumination, while provinces are defined by ocean currents, fronts, topography and recurrent features in the sea surface chlorophyll field. For each of these compartments, seasonal cycles of photic depth, primary production and accumulation (or loss) of algal biomass were obtained from the climatological CZCS chlorophyll field and other data and these, together with mixed layer depths, rendered characteristic seasonal cycles of production and consumption, which can be grouped into eight models: i - polar irradiance-mediated production peak; ii - nutrient-limited spring production peak; iii - winter-spring production with nutrient limitation; iv - small amplitude response to trade wind seasonality; v - large amplitude response to monsoon reversal; vi - canonical spring-fall blooms of mid-latitude continental shelves; vii - topography-forced summer production; viii - intermittent production at coastal divergences. For higher latitudes, these models suggest that the observed late-summer ‘blooms’ result not from a renewal of primary production rate, but from a relaxation of grazing pressure; in mid-latitudes, the observed ‘winter’ bloom represents chlorophyll accumulation at a season when loss terms are apparently smaller than during the period of peak primary production rate which occurs later, in spring. Where an episodic seasonal increase in rate of primary production occurs, as in the Arabian Sea, algal biomass accumulation may brief, lasting only until consumption is fully re-established. Only in the low latitude oligotrophic ocean are production and consumption perennially and closely coupled.

  17. Diversity, Seasonality, and Context of Mammalian Roadkills in the Southern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith-Patten, Brenda D.; Patten, Michael A.

    2008-06-01

    Thousands of mammals are killed annually from vehicle collisions, making the issue an important one for conservation biologists and environmental managers. We recorded all readily identifiable kills on or immediately adjacent to roads in the southern Great Plains from March 2004-March 2007. We also recorded distance traveled, whether a road was paved or divided, the number of lanes, and prevailing habitat. Surveys were opportunistic and were conducted by car during conditions of good visibility. Over our 239 surveys and >16,500 km traveled, we recorded 1412 roadkills from 18 different mammal species (size ranged from Sciurus squirrels to the white-tailed deer, Odocolieus virginianus). The overall kill rate was 8.50 / 100 km. Four species were prone to collisions: the Virginia opossum ( Didelphis virginiana), nine-banded armadillo ( Dasypus novemcinctus), striped skunk ( Mephitis mephitis), and northern raccoon ( Procyon lotor). Together they accounted for approximately 85% (1198) of all roadkills. Mortality rate differed significantly between 2- and 4-lane roads (8.39 versus 7.79 / 100 km). Kill rates were significantly higher on paved versus unpaved roads (8.60 versus 3.65 / 100 km), but did not depend on whether a road was divided. Roadkills were higher in spring than in fall (1.5×), winter (1.4×), or summer (1.3×). The spring peak (in kills / 100 km) was driven chiefly by the armadillo (2.76 in spring/summer versus 0.73 in autumn/winter) and opossum (2.65 versus 1.47). By contrast, seasonality was dampened by a late winter/early spring peak in skunk mortalities, for which 41% occurred in the 6-week period of mid-February through March. The raccoon did not exhibit a strong seasonal pattern. Our data are consistent with dispersal patterns of these species. Our results underscore the high rate of highway mortality in the southern plains, as well as differences in seasonality and road type that contribute to mortality. Conservation and management efforts should

  18. Survival during the Breeding Season: Nest Stage, Parental Sex, and Season Advancement Affect Reed Warbler Survival.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaja Wierucka

    Full Text Available Avian annual survival has received much attention, yet little is known about seasonal patterns in survival, especially of migratory passerines. In order to evaluate survival rates and timing of mortality within the breeding season of adult reed warblers (Acrocephalus scirpaceus, mark-recapture data were collected in southwest Poland, between 2006 and 2012. A total of 612 individuals (304 females and 308 males were monitored throughout the entire breeding season, and their capture-recapture histories were used to model survival rates. Males showed higher survival during the breeding season (0.985, 95% CI: 0.941-0.996 than females (0.869, 95% CI: 0.727-0.937. Survival rates of females declined with the progression of the breeding season (from May to August, while males showed constant survival during this period. We also found a clear pattern within the female (but not male nesting cycle: survival was significantly lower during the laying, incubation, and nestling periods (0.934, 95% CI: 0.898-0.958, when birds spent much time on the nest, compared to the nest building and fledgling periods (1.000, 95% CI: 1.00-1.000, when we did not record any female mortality. These data (coupled with some direct evidence, like bird corpses or blood remains found next to/on the nest may suggest that the main cause of adult mortality was on-nest predation. The calculated survival rates for both sexes during the breeding season were high compared to annual rates reported for this species, suggesting that a majority of mortality occurs at other times of the year, during migration or wintering. These results have implications for understanding survival variation within the reproductive period as well as general trends of avian mortality.

  19. Seasonal evolution of faecal egg output by gastrointestinal worms in goats on communal farms in eastern Namibia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F.F. Kumba

    2003-11-01

    Full Text Available As a more detailed continuation of a previous study, faecal samples for worm egg counts were collected per rectum from ten marked adult animals in selected flocks of goats, in each of six villages evenly spread out in the communal farming district of Okakarara in eastern Namibia. The study was conducted on a monthly basis from August 1999 to July 2000. Average faecal worm egg counts (FECs were highest during the warm-wet season, much lower during the cold-dry months and moderate during the hot-dry season. Least square means of FECs were 2 140, 430 and 653 per gram of faeces for the three seasons, respectively. Seasonal variation in egg counts was significant (P < 0.0001. Gastrointestinal strongyles, and to a lesser extent Strongyloides species, were the predominant parasite groups identified in goats. Kidding rates peaked in the cold-dry season and mortality rates in the hot-dry season. Results of this study suggest that gastrointestinal parasitism may be a problem that accentuates the effect of poor nutrition on small ruminants during the season of food shortages in the east of Namibia and that the use of FECs per se to assess the severity of gastrointestinal parasitic infection in goats followed by chemoprophylactic strategic and / or tactical treatment, may not be the best approach to addressing the worm problem under resource-poor conditions. The use of the FAMACHA(c system that identifies severely affected animals for treatment is technically a better option for communal farmers.

  20. Incremento, ingresso e mortalidade em uma floresta de contato ombrófila aberta/estacional em Marcelândia, Estado do Mato Grosso Increment, entry and mortality in a open/seasonal ombrophilous contact forest into Marcelândia, Mato Grosso State, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chirle Colpini

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Esta pesquisa teve por objetivo estudar o incremento em diâmetro, área basal e volume, o ingresso e a mortalidade de uma floresta ombrófila aberta/estacional no município de Marcelândia. Os dados são provenientes de 69 parcelas permanentes instaladas e medidas em 2001 e remedidas em 2003 e 2007. Foram avaliados o número de indivíduos e os incrementos em diâmetro, área basal e volume para o período de 2001 a 2007. O ingresso foi determinado como sendo as árvores que atingiram ou ultrapassaram o diâmetro de 17 cm. A mortalidade foi calculada pela soma de todas as árvores com diâmetro igual ou superior a 17 cm encontradas mortas em cada medição. No período considerado de seis anos, teve como resultado para o incremento em diâmetro, área basal e volume respectivamente, 0,34 cm; 0,22 m².ha-1 e 2,11 m³.ha-1. Os valores médios para as taxas de mortalidade e ingresso foram, respectivamente, 0,78% e 0,30%.This research aimed to study the increase in diameter, basal area, volume, the entry, and the mortality of an open/seasonal ombrophilous forest in the city of Marcelândia. Data were collected in 69 permanent plots established in 2001 and remeasured in 2003 and 2007. The number of individuals and the increases in diameter, basal area, and volume for the period 2001 to 2007 were evaluated. The entry was determined by the trees that have reached or exceeded a diameter of 17 cm. Mortality was calculated as the sum of all found dead trees in each measurement with a diameter equal or more than 17 cm. In the considered period of six years, the results to the increase in diameter, basal area, and volume were respectively, 0.34 cm, 0.22 m².ha-1, and 2.11 m³.ha-1. The average values for the mortality rates and entry respectively were 0.78% and 0.30%.

  1. Secular trends in seasonal variation in birth weight

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Camilla Bjørn; Gamborg, M; Raymond, K

    2015-01-01

    and phase of the yearly cycles to change. RESULTS: There was a clear seasonal pattern in BW which, however, changed gradually across the study period. The highest BWs were seen during fall (September - October) from 1936 to 1963, but a new peak gradually grew from the early 1940s during early summer (May...... again. Sunshine did not explain the seasonal variation in BW. CONCLUSION: There was a clear seasonal pattern in BW in Denmark 1936-1989, which however changed across the study period. Throughout the study period we observed a peak in BW during the fall, but gradually, starting in the early 1940s...

  2. Sorting Out Seasonal Allergies

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Close ‹ Back to Healthy Living Sorting Out Seasonal Allergies Sneezing, runny nose, nasal congestion. Symptoms of the ... How do I know if I have seasonal allergies? According to Dr. Georgeson, the best way to ...

  3. A new approach to modeling temperature-related mortality: Non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous input.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Cameron C; Sheridan, Scott C

    2018-07-01

    Temperature-mortality relationships are nonlinear, time-lagged, and can vary depending on the time of year and geographic location, all of which limits the applicability of simple regression models in describing these associations. This research demonstrates the utility of an alternative method for modeling such complex relationships that has gained recent traction in other environmental fields: nonlinear autoregressive models with exogenous input (NARX models). All-cause mortality data and multiple temperature-based data sets were gathered from 41 different US cities, for the period 1975-2010, and subjected to ensemble NARX modeling. Models generally performed better in larger cities and during the winter season. Across the US, median absolute percentage errors were 10% (ranging from 4% to 15% in various cities), the average improvement in the r-squared over that of a simple persistence model was 17% (6-24%), and the hit rate for modeling spike days in mortality (>80th percentile) was 54% (34-71%). Mortality responded acutely to hot summer days, peaking at 0-2 days of lag before dropping precipitously, and there was an extended mortality response to cold winter days, peaking at 2-4 days of lag and dropping slowly and continuing for multiple weeks. Spring and autumn showed both of the aforementioned temperature-mortality relationships, but generally to a lesser magnitude than what was seen in summer or winter. When compared to distributed lag nonlinear models, NARX model output was nearly identical. These results highlight the applicability of NARX models for use in modeling complex and time-dependent relationships for various applications in epidemiology and environmental sciences. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Seasonal Allergies (Hay Fever)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Safe Videos for Educators Search English Español Seasonal Allergies (Hay Fever) KidsHealth / For Parents / Seasonal Allergies (Hay ... español Alergia estacional (fiebre del heno) About Seasonal Allergies "Achoo!" It's your son's third sneezing fit of ...

  5. Seasonal Variation in Epidemiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrero, Osvaldo

    2013-01-01

    Seasonality analyses are important in medical research. If the incidence of a disease shows a seasonal pattern, then an environmental factor must be considered in its etiology. We discuss a method for the simultaneous analysis of seasonal variation in multiple groups. The nuts and bolts are explained using simple trigonometry, an elementary…

  6. Short-term community dynamics in seasonal and hyperseasonal cerrados

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MV. Cianciaruso

    Full Text Available In South America, the largest seasonal savanna region is the Brazilian cerrado. Our aim was to study temporal changes in some community descriptors, such as floristic composition, richness, species density, plant density, and cylindrical volume, in a seasonal cerrado, comparing it to a nearby hyperseasonal cerrado. In four different seasons, we placed randomly ten 1 m² quadrats in each vegetation form and sampled all the vascular plants. Seasonal changes in floristic composition, species density, and plant density were less pronounced in the seasonal than in the hyperseasonal cerrado. Floristic similarity between the vegetation forms was lower when the hyperseasonal cerrado was waterlogged. Richness and species density were higher in the seasonal cerrado, which reached its biomass peak at mid rainy season. The hyperseasonal cerrado, in turn, reached its biomass peak at early rainy season and, despite the waterlogging, maintained it until late rainy season. In the hyperseasonal cerrado, waterlogging acts as an environmental filter restricting the number of cerrado species able to withstand it. The seasonal cerrado community was more stable than the hyperseasonal one. Our results corroborated the idea that changes in the environmental filters will affect floristic composition and community structure in savannas.

  7. Excess mortality in winter in Finnish intensive care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinikainen, M; Uusaro, A; Ruokonen, E; Niskanen, M

    2006-07-01

    In the general population, mortality from acute myocardial infarctions, strokes and respiratory causes is increased in winter. The winter climate in Finland is harsh. The aim of this study was to find out whether there are seasonal variations in mortality rates in Finnish intensive care units (ICUs). We analysed data on 31,040 patients treated in 18 Finnish ICUs. We measured severity of illness with acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores and intensity of care with therapeutic intervention scoring system (TISS) scores. We assessed mortality rates in different months and seasons and used logistic regression analysis to test the independent effect of various seasons on hospital mortality. We defined 'winter' as the period from December to February, inclusive. The crude hospital mortality rate was 17.9% in winter and 16.4% in non-winter, P = 0.003. Even after adjustment for case mix, winter season was an independent risk factor for increased hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.22, P = 0.005). In particular, the risk of respiratory failure was increased in winter. Crude hospital mortality was increased during the main holiday season in July. However, the severity of illness-adjusted risk of death was not higher in July than in other months. An increase in the mean daily TISS score was an independent predictor of increased hospital mortality. Severity of illness-adjusted hospital mortality for Finnish ICU patients is higher in winter than in other seasons.

  8. Manatee mortality in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mignucci-Giannoni, A. A.; Montoya-Ospina, R. A.; Jimenez-Marrero, N. M.; Rodriguez-Lopez, M.; Williams, E.H.; Bonde, R.K.

    2000-01-01

    The most pressing problem in the effective management of the West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus) in Puerto Rico is mortality due to human activities. We assessed 90 cases of manatee strandings in Puerto Rico based on historical data and a coordinated carcass salvage effort from 1990 through 1995. We determined patterns of mortality, including type of event, condition of carcasses, spatial and temporal distribution, gender, size/age class, and the cause of death. The spatial distribution of stranding events was not uniform, with the north, northeast, and south coasts having the highest numbers. Six clusters representing the highest incidence included the areas of Fajardo and Ceiba, Bahia de Jobos, Toa Baja, Guayanilla, Cabo Rojo, and Rio Grande to Luquillo. The number of reported cases has increased at an average rate of 9.6%/yr since 1990. The seasonality of stranding events showed a bimodal pattern, from February through April and in August and September. Most identified causes of death were due to human interaction, especially captures and watercraft collisions. Natural causes usually involved dependent calves. From 1990 through 1995, most deaths were attributed to watercraft collisions. A reduction in anthropogenic mortality of this endangered species can be accomplished only through education and a proactive management and conservation plan that includes law enforcement, mortality assessment, scientific research, rescue and rehabilitation, and inter- and intraagency cooperation.

  9. The gestational age pattern of human mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schöley, Jonas; Vaupel, James W.; Jacobsen, Rune

    -infant lifetable by gestational age spanning week 23 until week 100 after the last menstrual period of the mother. This joint lifetable shows a remarkable regularity in the gestational age profile of fetal- and infant mortality: Mortality rates are declining over the whole observed age range with the exception......In order to check hypotheses about the cause for "ontogenescense" -- the phenomenon of a declining force of mortality prior to maturity -- I analyse data on human mortality by gestational age. Based on extensive microdata on births, fetal- and infant deaths in the US 2009 I calculate a joint fetal...... of a "birth hump" peaking week 38. The absolute rate of decline slows down over age. The observed gestational age pattern of the force of mortality is consistent with three hypotheses concerning the causes for ontogenescense: 1) Adaptation: as the organism growths it becomes more resilient towards death, 2...

  10. Mortality, diarrhea and respiratory disease in Danish dairy heifer calves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reiten, M.; Rousing, T.; Thomsen, P. T.

    2018-01-01

    system (conventional/organic), season (summer/winter) and calf mortality risk, diarrhea, signs of respiratory disease and ocular discharge, respectively, for dairy heifer calves aged 0–180 days. Sixty Danish dairy herds, 30 conventional and 30 organic, were visited once during summer and once during......Diarrhea and respiratory disease are major health problems for dairy calves, often causing calf mortality. Previous studies have found calf mortality to be higher in organic dairy herds compared to conventional herds. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between production...... variables and in certain age groups, dependent on production system and season....

  11. Seasonal Nitrogen Cycles on Pluto

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Candice J.; Paige, David A.

    1996-01-01

    A thermal model, developed to predict seasonal nitrogen cycles on Triton, has been modified and applied to Pluto. The model was used to calculate the partitioning of nitrogen between surface frost deposits and the atmosphere, as a function of time for various sets of input parameters. Volatile transport was confirmed to have a significant effect on Pluto's climate as nitrogen moved around on a seasonal time scale between hemispheres, and sublimed into and condensed out of the atmosphere. Pluto's high obliquity was found to have a significant effect on the distribution of frost on its surface. Conditions that would lead to permanent polar caps on Triton were found to lead to permanent zonal frost bands on Pluto. In some instances, frost sublimed from the middle of a seasonal cap outward, resulting in a "polar bald spot". Frost which was darker than the substrate did not satisfy observables on Pluto, in contrast to our findings for Triton. Bright frost (brighter than the substrate) came closer to matching observables. Atmospheric pressure varied seasonally. The amplitudes, and to a lesser extent the phase, of the variation depended significantly on frost and substrate properties. Atmospheric pressure was found to be determined both by Pluto's distance from the sun and by the subsolar latitude. In most cases two peaks in atmospheric pressure were observed annually: a greater one associated with the sublimation of the north polar cap just as Pluto receded from perihelion, and a lesser one associated with the sublimation of the south polar cap as Pluto approached perihelion. Our model predicted frost-free dark substrate surface temperatures in the 50 to 60 K range, while frost temperatures typically ranged between 30 to 40 K. Temporal changes in frost coverage illustrated by our results, and changes in the viewing geometry of Pluto from the Earth, may be important for interpretation of ground-based measurements of Pluto's thermal emission.

  12. Passive radio frequency peak power multiplier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farkas, Zoltan D.; Wilson, Perry B.

    1977-01-01

    Peak power multiplication of a radio frequency source by simultaneous charging of two high-Q resonant microwave cavities by applying the source output through a directional coupler to the cavities and then reversing the phase of the source power to the coupler, thereby permitting the power in the cavities to simultaneously discharge through the coupler to the load in combination with power from the source to apply a peak power to the load that is a multiplication of the source peak power.

  13. Season of sampling and season of birth influence serotonin metabolite levels in human cerebrospinal fluid.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurjen J Luykx

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Animal studies have revealed seasonal patterns in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF monoamine (MA turnover. In humans, no study had systematically assessed seasonal patterns in CSF MA turnover in a large set of healthy adults. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Standardized amounts of CSF were prospectively collected from 223 healthy individuals undergoing spinal anesthesia for minor surgical procedures. The metabolites of serotonin (5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid, 5-HIAA, dopamine (homovanillic acid, HVA and norepinephrine (3-methoxy-4-hydroxyphenylglycol, MPHG were measured using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC. Concentration measurements by sampling and birth dates were modeled using a non-linear quantile cosine function and locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOESS, span = 0.75. The cosine model showed a unimodal season of sampling 5-HIAA zenith in April and a nadir in October (p-value of the amplitude of the cosine = 0.00050, with predicted maximum (PC(max and minimum (PC(min concentrations of 173 and 108 nmol/L, respectively, implying a 60% increase from trough to peak. Season of birth showed a unimodal 5-HIAA zenith in May and a nadir in November (p = 0.00339; PC(max = 172 and PC(min = 126. The non-parametric LOESS showed a similar pattern to the cosine in both season of sampling and season of birth models, validating the cosine model. A final model including both sampling and birth months demonstrated that both sampling and birth seasons were independent predictors of 5-HIAA concentrations. CONCLUSION: In subjects without mental illness, 5-HT turnover shows circannual variation by season of sampling as well as season of birth, with peaks in spring and troughs in fall.

  14. Practical load management - Peak shaving using photovoltaics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berger, W.

    2009-01-01

    This article takes a look at how photovoltaic (PV) power generation can be used in a practical way to meet peak demands for electricity. Advice is provided on how photovoltaics can provide peak load 'shaving' through the correlation between its production and the peak loads encountered during the day. The situation regarding feed-in tariffs in Italy is discussed, as are further examples of installations in Germany and Austria. Further, an initiative of the American Southern California Edison utility is discussed which foresees the installation of large PV plant on the roofs of commercial premises to provide local generation of peak energy and thus relieve demands on their power transportation network.

  15. The geomorphic structure of the runoff peak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Rigon

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a theoretical framework to investigate the core dependence of peak flows on the geomorphic properties of river basins. Based on the theory of transport by travel times, and simple hydrodynamic characterization of floods, this new framework invokes the linearity and invariance of the hydrologic response to provide analytical and semi-analytical expressions for peak flow, time to peak, and area contributing to the peak runoff. These results are obtained for the case of constant-intensity hyetograph using the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF curves to estimate extreme flow values as a function of the rainfall return period. Results show that, with constant-intensity hyetographs, the time-to-peak is greater than rainfall duration and usually shorter than the basin concentration time. Moreover, the critical storm duration is shown to be independent of rainfall return period as well as the area contributing to the flow peak. The same results are found when the effects of hydrodynamic dispersion are accounted for. Further, it is shown that, when the effects of hydrodynamic dispersion are negligible, the basin area contributing to the peak discharge does not depend on the channel velocity, but is a geomorphic propriety of the basin. As an example this framework is applied to three watersheds. In particular, the runoff peak, the critical rainfall durations and the time to peak are calculated for all links within a network to assess how they increase with basin area.

  16. [A peak recognition algorithm designed for chromatographic peaks of transformer oil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ou, Linjun; Cao, Jian

    2014-09-01

    In the field of the chromatographic peak identification of the transformer oil, the traditional first-order derivative requires slope threshold to achieve peak identification. In terms of its shortcomings of low automation and easy distortion, the first-order derivative method was improved by applying the moving average iterative method and the normalized analysis techniques to identify the peaks. Accurate identification of the chromatographic peaks was realized through using multiple iterations of the moving average of signal curves and square wave curves to determine the optimal value of the normalized peak identification parameters, combined with the absolute peak retention times and peak window. The experimental results show that this algorithm can accurately identify the peaks and is not sensitive to the noise, the chromatographic peak width or the peak shape changes. It has strong adaptability to meet the on-site requirements of online monitoring devices of dissolved gases in transformer oil.

  17. Snake mortality associated with late season radio-transmitter implantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Craig Rudolph; Shirley J. Burgdorf; Richard R. Schaefer; Richard N. Conner; Robert T. Zappalorth

    1998-01-01

    Radio-telemetry is an increasingly used procedure to obtain data on the biology of free-living snakes (Reinert 1992, 1994). In Texas and Louisiana we have been using the surgical technique of Weatherhead and Anderka (1984) to implant transmitters in timber rattlesnakes (Crotalus horridus) and Louisiana pine snakes (Pituophis melanoleucus...

  18. Chapter 5 - Tree Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Ambrose

    2014-01-01

    Tree mortality is a natural process in all forest ecosystems. Extremely high mortality, however, can also be an indicator of forest health issues. On a regional scale, high mortality levels may indicate widespread insect or disease problems. High mortality may also occur if a large proportion of the forest in a particular region is made up of older, senescent stands....

  19. Employer Attitudes towards Peak Hour Avoidance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vonk Noordegraaf, D.M.; Annema, J.A.

    2012-01-01

    Peak Hour Avoidance is a relatively new Dutch mobility management measure. To reduce congestion frequent car drivers are given a financial reward for reducing the proportion of trips that they make during peak hours on a specific motorway section. Although previous studies show that employers are

  20. Employer attitudes towards peak hour avoidance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noordegraaf, D.M.V.; Annema, J.A.

    2012-01-01

    Peak Hour Avoidance is a relatively new Dutch mobility management measure. To reduce congestion frequent car drivers are given a financial reward for reducing the proportion of trips that they make during peak hours on a specific motorway section. Although previous studies show that employers are

  1. Peak load pricing lowers generation costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lande, R.H.

    1980-01-01

    Before a utility implements peak load pricing for different classes of consumers, the costs and the benefits should be compared. The methodology described enables a utility to determine whether peak load pricing should be introduced for specific users. Cost-benefit analyses for domestic consumers and commercial/industrial consumers, showing break-even points are presented. (author)

  2. Peak Shaving Considering Streamflow Uncertainties | Iwuagwu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The main thrust of this paper is peak shaving with a Stochastic hydro model. In peak sharing, the amount of hydro energy scheduled may be a minimum but it serves to replace less efficient thermal units. The sample system is die Kainji hydro plant and the thermal units of the National Electric Power Authority. The random ...

  3. Relationship of infant and fetal mortality to operations at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation, Washington State, 1946-1982

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cate, S.; Hansom, J.

    1986-01-01

    The relationship of infant and fetal mortality to numbers of nuclear reactors at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation was investigated. Mortality rates were obtained using 36 years of United States vital statistics data. Three different exposure groups were selected based on meteorologic studies of the Hanford area: group 1, counties downwind of Hanford all year; group 2, counties seasonally downwind; and group 3, counties not downwind. Washington state was used as an additional comparison group. Four periods of operation based on fluctuations in numbers of reactors were characterized. Log-linear analysis revealed that the three groups and Washington state had similar trends in infant mortality rates over the four time periods. On the other hand, the trend in fetal mortality rates for group 1 did differ significantly from trends for the two other groups and Washington state. The trends of fetal mortality rates for group 2, group 3, and Washington state were not statistically different. Fetal mortality rates in group 1, however, failed to decline from period 1 (1946-1954) to period 2 (1955-1964) as expected by the trends for the two groups and Washington state. During period 2, the greatest number of reactors were operating. County-specific analysis showed that, of the counties in group 1, the trend in fetal mortality for Benton County, where Hanford is located, was significantly different from that for Washington state. A possible link between Hanford and an excess in fetal deaths is suggested by the deviation in trend of group 1, which appears localized to Benton County and the period of peak activity at Hanford

  4. The peak in neutron powder diffraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laar, B. van; Yelon, W.B.

    1984-01-01

    For the application of Rietveld profile analysis to neutron powder diffraction data a precise knowledge of the peak profile, in both shape and position, is required. The method now in use employs a Gaussian shaped profile with a semi-empirical asymmetry correction for low-angle peaks. The integrated intensity is taken to be proportional to the classical Lorentz factor calculated for the X-ray case. In this paper an exact expression is given for the peak profile based upon the geometrical dimensions of the diffractometer. It is shown that the asymmetry of observed peaks is well reproduced by this expression. The angular displacement of the experimental profile with respect to the nominal Bragg angle value is larger than expected. Values for the correction to the classical Lorentz factor for the integrated intensity are given. The exact peak profile expression has been incorporated into a Rietveld profile analysis refinement program. (Auth.)

  5. Peak tree: a new tool for multiscale hierarchical representation and peak detection of mass spectrometry data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Peng; Li, Houqiang; Wang, Honghui; Wong, Stephen T C; Zhou, Xiaobo

    2011-01-01

    Peak detection is one of the most important steps in mass spectrometry (MS) analysis. However, the detection result is greatly affected by severe spectrum variations. Unfortunately, most current peak detection methods are neither flexible enough to revise false detection results nor robust enough to resist spectrum variations. To improve flexibility, we introduce peak tree to represent the peak information in MS spectra. Each tree node is a peak judgment on a range of scales, and each tree decomposition, as a set of nodes, is a candidate peak detection result. To improve robustness, we combine peak detection and common peak alignment into a closed-loop framework, which finds the optimal decomposition via both peak intensity and common peak information. The common peak information is derived and loopily refined from the density clustering of the latest peak detection result. Finally, we present an improved ant colony optimization biomarker selection method to build a whole MS analysis system. Experiment shows that our peak detection method can better resist spectrum variations and provide higher sensitivity and lower false detection rates than conventional methods. The benefits from our peak-tree-based system for MS disease analysis are also proved on real SELDI data.

  6. Multiscale peak detection in wavelet space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhi-Min; Tong, Xia; Peng, Ying; Ma, Pan; Zhang, Ming-Jin; Lu, Hong-Mei; Chen, Xiao-Qing; Liang, Yi-Zeng

    2015-12-07

    Accurate peak detection is essential for analyzing high-throughput datasets generated by analytical instruments. Derivatives with noise reduction and matched filtration are frequently used, but they are sensitive to baseline variations, random noise and deviations in the peak shape. A continuous wavelet transform (CWT)-based method is more practical and popular in this situation, which can increase the accuracy and reliability by identifying peaks across scales in wavelet space and implicitly removing noise as well as the baseline. However, its computational load is relatively high and the estimated features of peaks may not be accurate in the case of peaks that are overlapping, dense or weak. In this study, we present multi-scale peak detection (MSPD) by taking full advantage of additional information in wavelet space including ridges, valleys, and zero-crossings. It can achieve a high accuracy by thresholding each detected peak with the maximum of its ridge. It has been comprehensively evaluated with MALDI-TOF spectra in proteomics, the CAMDA 2006 SELDI dataset as well as the Romanian database of Raman spectra, which is particularly suitable for detecting peaks in high-throughput analytical signals. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves show that MSPD can detect more true peaks while keeping the false discovery rate lower than MassSpecWavelet and MALDIquant methods. Superior results in Raman spectra suggest that MSPD seems to be a more universal method for peak detection. MSPD has been designed and implemented efficiently in Python and Cython. It is available as an open source package at .

  7. Timing of Seasonal Sales.

    OpenAIRE

    Courty, Pascal; Li, Hao

    1999-01-01

    We present a model of timing of seasonal sales where stores choose several designs at the beginning of the season without knowing wich one, if any, will be fashionable. Fashionable designs have a chance to fetch high prices in fashion markets while non-fashionable ones must be sold in a discount market. In the beginning of the season, stores charge high prices in the hope of capturing their fashion market. As the end of the season approaches with goods still on the shelves, stores adjust down...

  8. Trends in land surface phenology and atmospheric CO2 seasonality in the Northern Hemisphere terrestrial ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonsamo, A.; Chen, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    Northern terrestrial ecosystems have shown global warming-induced advances in start, delays in end, and thus increased lengths of growing season and gross photosynthesis in recent decades. The tradeoffs between seasonal dynamics of two opposing fluxes, CO2 uptake through photosynthesis and release through respiration, determine the influence of the terrestrial ecosystems on the atmospheric CO2 concentration and 13C/12C isotope ratio seasonality. Atmospheric CO2 and 13C/12C seasonality is controlled by vegetation phenology, but is not identical because growth will typically commence some time before and terminate some time after the net carbon exchange changes sign in spring and autumn, respectively. Here, we use 34-year satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) observations to determine how changes in vegetation productivity and phenology affect both the atmospheric CO2 and 13C/12C seasonality. Differences and similarities in recent trends of CO2 and 13C/12C seasonality and vegetation phenology will be discussed. Furthermore, we use the NDVI observations, and atmospheric CO2 and 13C/12C data to show the trends and variability of the timing of peak season plant activity. Preliminary results show that the peak season plant activity of the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical terrestrial ecosystems is shifting towards spring, largely in response to the warming-induced advance of the start of growing season. Besides, the spring-ward shift of the peak plant activity is contributing the most to the increasing peak season productivity. In other words, earlier start of growing season is highly linked to earlier arrival of peak of season and higher NDVI. Changes in the timing of peak season plant activity are expected to disrupt the synchrony of biotic interaction and exert strong biophysical feedbacks on climate by modifying the surface albedo and energy budget.

  9. Neonatal mortality in New Zealand sea lions (Phocarctos hookeri) at Sandy Bay, Enderby Island, Auckland Islands from 1998 to 2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castinel, A; Duignan, P J; Pomroy, W E; López-Villalobos, N; Gibbs, N J; Chilvers, B L; Wilkinson, I S

    2007-07-01

    As part of a health survey of New Zealand sea lions (Phocarctos hookeri) on Enderby Island, Auckland Islands (50 degrees 30'S, 166 degrees 17'E), neonatal mortality was closely monitored at the Sandy Bay colony for seven consecutive years. Throughout the breeding seasons 1998-99 to 2004-05, more than 400 postmortem examinations were performed on pups found dead at this site. The primary causes of death were categorized as trauma (35%), bacterial infections (24%), hookworm infection (13%), starvation (13%), and stillbirth (4%). For most pups, more than one diagnosis was recorded. Every year, two distinct peaks of trauma were observed: the first associated with mature bulls fighting within the harem and the second with subadult males abducting pups. In 2001-02 and 2002-03, epidemics caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae increased mortality by three times the mean in nonepidemic years (10.2%). The increased mortality was attributed directly to acute suppurative infection due to the bacterium and also to an increase in traumatic deaths of debilitated pups. Parasitic infection with the hookworm Uncinaria spp. was a common finding in all pups older than three weeks of age and debilitation by the parasite may have contributed to increased susceptibility to other pathogens such as Klebsiella sp. or Salmonella sp. This study provides valuable quantitative data on the natural causes of neonatal mortality in New Zealand sea lions that can be used in demographic models for management of threatened species.

  10. Isotope resolution of the iron peak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henke, R.P.; Benton, E.V.

    1977-01-01

    A stack of Lexan detectors from the Apollo 17 mission has been analyzed to obtain Z measurements of sufficient accuracy to resolve the iron peak into its isotopic components. Within this distribution several peaks are present. With the centrally located, most populated peak assumed to be 56 Fe, the measurements imply that the abundances of 54 Fe and 58 Fe are appreciable fractions of the 56 Fe abundance. This result is in agreement with those of Webber et al. and Siegman et al. but in disagreement with the predictions of Tsao et al. (Auth.)

  11. Fifty consecutive pancreatectomies without mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enio Campos Amico

    Full Text Available Objective: to report the group's experience with a series of patients undergoing pancreatic resection presenting null mortality rates. Methods: we prospectively studied 50 consecutive patients undergoing pancreatic resections for peri-ampullary or pancreatic diseases. Main local complications were defined according to international criteria. In-hospital mortality was defined as death occurring in the first 90 postoperative days. Results: patients' age ranged between 16 and 90 years (average: 53.3. We found anemia (Hb < 12g/dl and preoperative jaundice in 38% and 40% of cases, respectively. Most patients presented with peri-ampullary tumors (66%. The most common surgical procedure was the Kausch - Whipple operation (70%. Six patients (12% needed to undergo resection of a segment of the mesenteric-portal axis. The mean operative time was 445.1 minutes. Twenty two patients (44% showed no clinical complications and presented mean hospital stay of 10.3 days. The most frequent complications were pancreatic fistula (56%, delayed gastric emptying (17.1% and bleeding (16%. Conclusion : within the last three decades, pancreatic resection is still considered a challenge, especially outside large specialized centers. Nevertheless, even in our country (Brazil, teams seasoned in such procedure can reach low mortality rates.

  12. Peak load arrangements : Assessment of Nordel guidelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2009-07-01

    Two Nordic countries, Sweden and Finland, have legislation that empowers the TSO to acquire designated peak load resources to mitigate the risk for shortage situations during the winter. In Denmark, the system operator procures resources to maintain a satisfactory level of security of supply. In Norway the TSO has set up a Regulation Power Option Market (RKOM) to secure a satisfactory level of operational reserves at all times, also in winter with high load demand. Only the arrangements in Finland and Sweden fall under the heading of Peak Load Arrangements defined in Nordel Guidelines. NordREG has been invited by the Electricity Market Group (EMG) to evaluate Nordel's proposal for 'Guidelines for transitional Peak Load Arrangements'. The EMG has also financed a study made by EC Group to support NordREG in the evaluation of the proposal. The study has been taken into account in NordREG's evaluation. In parallel to the EMG task, the Swedish regulator, the Energy Markets Inspectorate, has been given the task by the Swedish government to investigate a long term solution of the peak load issue. The Swedish and Finnish TSOs have together with Nord Pool Spot worked on finding a harmonized solution for activation of the peak load reserves in the market. An agreement accepted by the relevant authorities was reached in early January 2009, and the arrangement has been implemented since 19th January 2009. NordREG views that the proposed Nordel guidelines have served as a starting point for the presently agreed procedure. However, NordREG does not see any need to further develop the Nordel guidelines for peak load arrangements. NordREG agrees with Nordel that the market should be designed to solve peak load problems through proper incentives to market players. NordREG presumes that the relevant authorities in each country will take decisions on the need for any peak load arrangement to ensure security of supply. NordREG proposes that such decisions should be

  13. Mortality table construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutawanir

    2015-12-01

    Mortality tables play important role in actuarial studies such as life annuities, premium determination, premium reserve, valuation pension plan, pension funding. Some known mortality tables are CSO mortality table, Indonesian Mortality Table, Bowers mortality table, Japan Mortality table. For actuary applications some tables are constructed with different environment such as single decrement, double decrement, and multiple decrement. There exist two approaches in mortality table construction : mathematics approach and statistical approach. Distribution model and estimation theory are the statistical concepts that are used in mortality table construction. This article aims to discuss the statistical approach in mortality table construction. The distributional assumptions are uniform death distribution (UDD) and constant force (exponential). Moment estimation and maximum likelihood are used to estimate the mortality parameter. Moment estimation methods are easier to manipulate compared to maximum likelihood estimation (mle). However, the complete mortality data are not used in moment estimation method. Maximum likelihood exploited all available information in mortality estimation. Some mle equations are complicated and solved using numerical methods. The article focus on single decrement estimation using moment and maximum likelihood estimation. Some extension to double decrement will introduced. Simple dataset will be used to illustrated the mortality estimation, and mortality table.

  14. Automated Peak Picking and Peak Integration in Macromolecular NMR Spectra Using AUTOPSY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koradi, Reto; Billeter, Martin; Engeli, Max; Güntert, Peter; Wüthrich, Kurt

    1998-12-01

    A new approach for automated peak picking of multidimensional protein NMR spectra with strong overlap is introduced, which makes use of the program AUTOPSY (automatedpeak picking for NMRspectroscopy). The main elements of this program are a novel function for local noise level calculation, the use of symmetry considerations, and the use of lineshapes extracted from well-separated peaks for resolving groups of strongly overlapping peaks. The algorithm generates peak lists with precise chemical shift and integral intensities, and a reliability measure for the recognition of each peak. The results of automated peak picking of NOESY spectra with AUTOPSY were tested in combination with the combined automated NOESY cross peak assignment and structure calculation routine NOAH implemented in the program DYANA. The quality of the resulting structures was found to be comparable with those from corresponding data obtained with manual peak picking.

  15. Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

    2005-01-01

    During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

  16. Peak Exercise Oxygen Uptake Predicts Recurrent Admissions in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palau, Patricia; Domínguez, Eloy; Núñez, Eduardo; Ramón, José María; López, Laura; Melero, Joana; Sanchis, Juan; Bellver, Alejandro; Santas, Enrique; Bayes-Genis, Antoni; Chorro, Francisco J; Núñez, Julio

    2018-04-01

    Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is a highly prevalent syndrome with an elevated risk of morbidity and mortality. To date, there is scarce evidence on the role of peak exercise oxygen uptake (peak VO 2 ) for predicting the morbidity burden in HFpEF. We sought to evaluate the association between peak VO 2 and the risk of recurrent hospitalizations in patients with HFpEF. A total of 74 stable symptomatic patients with HFpEF underwent a cardiopulmonary exercise test between June 2012 and May 2016. A negative binomial regression method was used to determine the association between the percentage of predicted peak VO 2 (pp-peak VO 2 ) and recurrent hospitalizations. Risk estimates are reported as incidence rate ratios. The mean age was 72.5 ± 9.1 years, 53% were women, and all patients were in New York Heart Association functional class II to III. Mean peak VO 2 and median pp-peak VO 2 were 10 ± 2.8mL/min/kg and 60% (range, 47-67), respectively. During a median follow-up of 276 days [interquartile range, 153-1231], 84 all-cause hospitalizations in 31 patients (41.9%) were registered. A total of 15 (20.3%) deaths were also recorded. On multivariate analysis, accounting for mortality as a terminal event, pp-peak VO 2 was independently and linearly associated with the risk of recurrent admission. Thus, and modeled as continuous, a 10% decrease of pp-peak VO 2 increased the risk of recurrent hospitalizations by 32% (IRR, 1.32; 95%CI, 1.03-1.68; P = .028). In symptomatic elderly patients with HFpEF, pp-peak VO 2 predicts all-cause recurrent admission. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  17. The Short-Term Effects of Visibility and Haze on Mortality in a Coastal City of China: A Time-Series Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaohua Gu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Few studies have been conducted to investigate the acute health effects of visibility and haze, which may be regarded as proxy indicators of ambient air pollution. We used a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM combined with quasi-Poisson regression to estimate the relationship between visibility, haze and mortality in Ningbo, a coastal city of China. We found that the mortality risk of visibility was statistically significant only on the current day, while the risk of haze and PM10 peaked on the second day and could last for three days. When the visibility was less than 10 km, each 1 km decrease of visibility at lag 0 day was associated with a 0.78% (95% CI: 0.22–1.36% increase in total mortality and a 1.61% (95% CI: 0.39–2.85% increase in respiratory mortality. The excess risk of haze at lag 0–2 days on total mortality, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was 7.76% (95% CI: 3.29–12.42%, 7.73% (95% CI: 0.12–15.92% and 17.77% (95% CI: 7.64–28.86%, respectively. Greater effects of air pollution were observed during the cold season than in the warm season, and the elderly were at higher risk compared to youths. The effects of visibility and haze were attenuated by single pollutants. These findings suggest that visibility and haze could be used as surrogates of air quality where pollutant data are scarce, and strengthen the evidence to develop policy to control air pollution and protect vulnerable populations.

  18. Bayesian Peak Picking for NMR Spectra

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Yichen

    2014-02-01

    Protein structure determination is a very important topic in structural genomics, which helps people to understand varieties of biological functions such as protein-protein interactions, protein–DNA interactions and so on. Nowadays, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) has often been used to determine the three-dimensional structures of protein in vivo. This study aims to automate the peak picking step, the most important and tricky step in NMR structure determination. We propose to model the NMR spectrum by a mixture of bivariate Gaussian densities and use the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm as the computational tool to solve the problem. Under the Bayesian framework, the peak picking problem is casted as a variable selection problem. The proposed method can automatically distinguish true peaks from false ones without preprocessing the data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort in the literature that tackles the peak picking problem for NMR spectrum data using Bayesian method.

  19. Peak-Seeking Control for Trim Optimization

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Innovators have developed a peak-seeking algorithm that can reduce drag and improve performance and fuel efficiency by optimizing aircraft trim in real time. The...

  20. Circadian activity of Lutzomyia shannoni (Diptera: Psychodidae) during late season population peaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minter, Logan M; Brown, Grayson C

    2010-12-01

    The phlebotomine sand fly, Lutzomyia shannoni (Dyar), is considered both zoophillic and anthropophillic and may be a potential vector of human and livestock pathogens. While the known range of this species in North America has recently been expanded, many aspects of its natural history, which are fundamental components for assessments of disease risk or development of integrated pest management programs for the vector, remain unclear. One is the time of day when individuals are active and searching for blood meals. Through the use of a rotating trap mechanism, male L. shannoni were found to be active earlier in the evening (1-4 h after sunset), whereas the majority of female activity occurred after midnight.

  1. Seasonal patterns in growth, blood consumption, and effects on hosts by parasitic-phase sea lampreys in the Great Lakes: an individual-based model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; Cochran, Philip A.; Bergstedt, Roger A.

    2003-01-01

    An individual-based model (IBM) was developed for sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes. The IBM was then calibrated to observed growth, by season, for sea lampreys in northern Lake Huron under two different water temperature regimes: a regime experienced by Seneca-strain lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and a regime experienced by Marquettestrain lake trout. Modeling results indicated that seasonal blood consumption under the Seneca regime was very similar to that under the Marquette regime. Simulated mortality of lake trout directly due to blood removal by sea lampreys occurred at nearly twice the rate during August and September under the Marquette regime than under the Seneca regime. However, cumulative sea lamprey-induced mortality on lake trout over the entire duration of the sea lamprey's parasitic phase was only 7% higher for the Marquette regime compared with the Seneca regime. Thus, these modeling results indicated that the strain composition of the host (lake trout) population was not important in determining total number of lake trout deaths or total blood consumption attributable to the sea lamprey population, given the sea lamprey growth pattern. Regardless of water temperature regime, both blood consumption rate by sea lampreys and rate of sea lamprey-induced mortality on lake trout peaked in late October. Elevated blood consumption in late October appeared to be unrelated to changes in water temperature. The IBM approach should prove useful in optimizing control of sea lampreys in the Laurentian Great Lakes.

  2. Instream flow needs below peaking hydroelectric projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milhous, R.T.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on a method developed to assist in the determination of instream flow needs below hydroelectric projects operated in a peaking mode. Peaking hydroelectric projects significantly change streamflow over a short period of time; consequently, any instream flow methodology must consider the dual flows associated with peaking projects. The dual flows are the lowest flow and the maximum generation flow of a peaking cycle. The methodology is based on elements of the Physical Habitat Simulation System of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and uses habitat, rather than fish numbers or biomas, as at basic response variable. All aquatic animals are subject to the rapid changes in streamflow which cause rapid swings in habitat quality. Some aquatic organisms are relatively fixed in location in the stream while others can move when flows change. The habitat available from a project operated in peaking mode is considered to be the minimum habitat occurring during a cycle of habitat change. The methodology takes in to consideration that some aquatic animals can move and others cannot move during a peaking cycle

  3. Seasonal prolactin secretion and its role in seasonal reproduction: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curlewis, J D

    1992-01-01

    The majority of seasonally breeding mammals show a seasonal pattern of prolactin secretion with peak concentrations in spring or summer and a nadir in autumn or winter. Photoperiod influences prolactin secretion via its effects on the secretion of the pineal hormone melatonin. Preliminary evidence suggests that the effects of melatonin on both prolactin and gonadotrophin secretion are via a common target area, possibly within the anterior hypothalamus, and that differences in response to photoperiod may be due to differences in the processing and/or interpretation of the melatonin signal. In contrast to seasonal gonadotrophin secretion, the seasonal changes in prolactin are not due to changes in the sensitivity of a feedback loop and so must be due to direct effects on the hypothalamic pathways that control prolactin secretion. Little else can be said with confidence about the neuroendocrine mechanisms that lead to the seasonal changes in prolactin secretion. Dopamine and noradrenaline turnover in the arcuate nucleus and median eminence decrease under short daylength. If catecholamine turnover in these structures is positively correlated with catecholamine concentrations in the long or short hypophysial portal vessels, it is unlikely that the decrease in prolactin concentration in winter is due to the effects of increased concentrations of dopamine or noradrenaline in the portal vessels. There is, however, evidence for increased pituitary sensitivity to dopamine under short daylength, so increased dopamine concentrations may not be required for suppression of prolactin secretion at this time. In addition to the diminished secretion of prolactin under short daylength, rate of prolactin synthesis and pituitary content of prolactin also decline although the mechanisms that regulate these changes are poorly understood. Although all seasonal breeders show a seasonal change in prolactin secretion, there are continuously breeding species in which prolactin secretion is

  4. Telomere Length and Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kimura, Masayuki; Hjelmborg, Jacob V B; Gardner, Jeffrey P

    2008-01-01

    Leukocyte telomere length, representing the mean length of all telomeres in leukocytes, is ostensibly a bioindicator of human aging. The authors hypothesized that shorter telomeres might forecast imminent mortality in elderly people better than leukocyte telomere length. They performed mortality...

  5. Limitation of peak fitting and peak shape methods for determination of activation energy of thermoluminescence glow peaks

    CERN Document Server

    Sunta, C M; Piters, T M; Watanabe, S

    1999-01-01

    This paper shows the limitation of general order peak fitting and peak shape methods for determining the activation energy of the thermoluminescence glow peaks in the cases in which retrapping probability is much higher than the recombination probability and the traps are filled up to near saturation level. Right values can be obtained when the trap occupancy is reduced by using small doses or by post-irradiation partial bleaching. This limitation in the application of these methods has not been indicated earlier. In view of the unknown nature of kinetics in the experimental samples, it is recommended that these methods of activation energy determination should be applied only at doses well below the saturation dose.

  6. Excess mortality in hyperthyroidism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjelm Brandt Kristensen, Frans; Pedersen, Dorthe Almind; Christensen, Kaare

    2012-01-01

    Hyperthyroidism is associated with severe comorbidity, such as stroke, and seems to confer increased mortality. However, it is unknown whether this increased mortality is explained by hyperthyroidism per se, comorbidity, and/or genetic confounding.......Hyperthyroidism is associated with severe comorbidity, such as stroke, and seems to confer increased mortality. However, it is unknown whether this increased mortality is explained by hyperthyroidism per se, comorbidity, and/or genetic confounding....

  7. Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

    2016-09-01

    Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  8. Seasonality in the Austrian Economy: Common Seasonals and Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Kunst, Robert M.

    1992-01-01

    Abstract: Seasonal cointegration generalizes the idea of cointegration to processes with unit roots at frequencies different from 0. Here, also the dual notion of common trends, "common seasonals", is adopted for the seasonal case. Using a five-variable macroeconomic core system of the Austrian economy, it is demonstrated how common seasonals and seasonal cointegrating vectors look in practice. Statistical tests provide clear evidence on seasonal cointegration in the system. However, it is sh...

  9. The effect of seasonality on burn incidence, severity and outcome in Central Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyson, Anna F; Gallaher, Jared; Mjuweni, Stephen; Cairns, Bruce A; Charles, Anthony G

    2017-08-01

    In much of the world, burns are more common in cold months. However, few studies have described the seasonality of burns in sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines the effect of seasonality on the incidence and outcome of burns in central Malawi. A retrospective analysis was performed at Kamuzu Central Hospital and included all patients admitted from May 2011 to August 2014. Demographic data, burn mechanism, total body surface area (%TBSA), and mortality were analyzed. Seasons were categorized as Rainy (December-February), Lush (March-May), Cold (June-August) and Hot (September-November). A negative binomial regression was used to assess the effect of seasonality on burn incidence. This was performed using both the raw and deseasonalized data in order to evaluate for trends not attributable to random fluctuation. A total of 905 patients were included. Flame (38%) and Scald (59%) burns were the most common mechanism. More burns occurred during the cold season (41% vs 19-20% in the other seasons). Overall mortality was 19%. Only the cold season had a statistically significant increase in burn . The incidence rate ratios (IRR) for the hot, lush, and cold seasons were 0.94 (CI 0.6-1.32), 1.02 (CI 0.72-1.45) and 1.6 (CI 1.17-2.19), respectively, when compared to the rainy season. Burn severity and mortality did not differ between seasons. The results of this study demonstrate the year-round phenomenon of burns treated at our institution, and highlights the slight predominance of burns during the cold season. These data can be used to guide prevention strategies, with special attention to the implications of the increased burn incidence during the cold season. Though burn severity and mortality remain relatively unchanged between seasons, recognizing the seasonal variability in incidence of burns is critical for resource allocation in this low-income setting. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

  10. Statistics of peaks of Gaussian random fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bardeen, J.M.; Bond, J.R.; Kaiser, N.; Szalay, A.S.; Stanford Univ., CA; California Univ., Berkeley; Cambridge Univ., England; Fermi National Accelerator Lab., Batavia, IL)

    1986-01-01

    A set of new mathematical results on the theory of Gaussian random fields is presented, and the application of such calculations in cosmology to treat questions of structure formation from small-amplitude initial density fluctuations is addressed. The point process equation is discussed, giving the general formula for the average number density of peaks. The problem of the proper conditional probability constraints appropriate to maxima are examined using a one-dimensional illustration. The average density of maxima of a general three-dimensional Gaussian field is calculated as a function of heights of the maxima, and the average density of upcrossing points on density contour surfaces is computed. The number density of peaks subject to the constraint that the large-scale density field be fixed is determined and used to discuss the segregation of high peaks from the underlying mass distribution. The machinery to calculate n-point peak-peak correlation functions is determined, as are the shapes of the profiles about maxima. 67 references

  11. Peak Oil, threat or energy worlds' phantasm?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Favennec, Jean-Pierre

    2011-01-01

    The concept of Peak Oil is based on the work of King Hubbert, a petroleum geologist who worked for Shell in the USA in the 1960's. Based on the fact that discoveries in America reached a maximum in the 1930's, he announced that American production would reach a maximum in 1969, which did actually occur. Geologists members of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil have extrapolated this result to a worldwide scale and, since oil discoveries reached a peak in the 1960's, argued that production will peak in the very near future. It is clear that hydrocarbon reserves are finite and therefore exhaustible. But little is known regarding the level of ultimate (i.e. total existing) reserves. There are probably very large reserves of non conventional oil in addition to the reserves of conventional oil. An increasing number of specialists put maximum production at less than 100 Mb/d more for geopolitical than physical reasons. Attainable peak production will probably vary from year to year and will depend on how crude oil prices develop

  12. Electric peak power forecasting by year 2025

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alsayegh, O.A.; Al-Matar, O.A.; Fairouz, F.A.; Al-Mulla Ali, A.

    2005-01-01

    Peak power demand in Kuwait up to the year 2025 was predicted using an artificial neural network (ANN) model. The aim of the study was to investigate the effect of air conditioning (A/C) units on long-term power demand. Five socio-economic factors were selected as inputs for the simulation: (1) gross national product, (2) population, (3) number of buildings, (4) imports of A/C units, and (5) index of industrial production. The study used socio-economic data from 1978 to 2000. Historical data of the first 10 years of the studied time period were used to train the ANN. The electrical network was then simulated to forecast peak power for the following 11 years. The calculated error was then used for years in which power consumption data were not available. The study demonstrated that average peak power rates increased by 4100 MW every 5 years. Various scenarios related to changes in population, the number of buildings, and the quantity of A/C units were then modelled to estimate long-term peak power demand. Results of the study demonstrated that population had the strongest impact on future power demand, while the number of buildings had the smallest impact. It was concluded that peak power growth can be controlled through the use of different immigration policies, increased A/C efficiency, and the use of vertical housing. 7 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  13. Electric peak power forecasting by year 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alsayegh, O.A.; Al-Matar, O.A.; Fairouz, F.A.; Al-Mulla Ali, A. [Kuwait Inst. for Scientific Research, Kuwait City (Kuwait). Div. of Environment and Urban Development

    2005-07-01

    Peak power demand in Kuwait up to the year 2025 was predicted using an artificial neural network (ANN) model. The aim of the study was to investigate the effect of air conditioning (A/C) units on long-term power demand. Five socio-economic factors were selected as inputs for the simulation: (1) gross national product, (2) population, (3) number of buildings, (4) imports of A/C units, and (5) index of industrial production. The study used socio-economic data from 1978 to 2000. Historical data of the first 10 years of the studied time period were used to train the ANN. The electrical network was then simulated to forecast peak power for the following 11 years. The calculated error was then used for years in which power consumption data were not available. The study demonstrated that average peak power rates increased by 4100 MW every 5 years. Various scenarios related to changes in population, the number of buildings, and the quantity of A/C units were then modelled to estimate long-term peak power demand. Results of the study demonstrated that population had the strongest impact on future power demand, while the number of buildings had the smallest impact. It was concluded that peak power growth can be controlled through the use of different immigration policies, increased A/C efficiency, and the use of vertical housing. 7 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs.

  14. Seasonal Affective Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... than any non-seasonal depressions. Symptoms of Major Depression Feeling depressed most of the day, nearly every ... Bethesda, MD 20892-9663 Follow Us Facebook Twitter YouTube Google Plus NIMH Newsletter NIMH RSS Feed NIMH ...

  15. CCAA seasonal forecasting

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts in ..... Explanation is based on spiritual and social values. Taught by .... that provided medicine and food became the subject of strict rules and practices ...

  16. SPANISH PEAKS WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, COLORADO.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budding, Karin E.; Kluender, Steven E.

    1984-01-01

    A geologic and geochemical investigation and a survey of mines and prospects were conducted to evaluate the mineral-resource potential of the Spanish Peaks Wilderness Study Area, Huerfano and Las Animas Counties, in south-central Colorado. Anomalous gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc concentrations in rocks and in stream sediments from drainage basins in the vicinity of the old mines and prospects on West Spanish Peak indicate a substantiated mineral-resource potential for base and precious metals in the area surrounding this peak; however, the mineralized veins are sparse, small in size, and generally low in grade. There is a possibility that coal may underlie the study area, but it would be at great depth and it is unlikely that it would have survived the intense igneous activity in the area. There is little likelihood for the occurrence of oil and gas because of the lack of structural traps and the igneous activity.

  17. Analysis of fuel end-temperature peaking

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Z.; Jiang, Q.; Lai, L.; Shams, M. [CANDU Energy Inc., Fuel Engineering Dept., Mississauga, Ontario (Canada)

    2013-07-01

    During normal operation and refuelling of CANDU® fuel, fuel temperatures near bundle ends will increase due to a phenomenon called end flux peaking. Similar phenomenon would also be expected to occur during a postulated large break LOCA event. The end flux peaking in a CANDU fuel element is due to the fact that neutron flux is higher near a bundle end, in contact with a neighbouring bundle or close to heavy water coolant, than in the bundle mid-plane, because of less absorption of thermal neutrons by Zircaloy or heavy water than by the UO{sub 2} material. This paper describes Candu Energy experience in analysing behaviour of bundle due to end flux peaking using fuel codes FEAT, ELESTRES and ELOCA. (author)

  18. Seasonal variation in human reproduction: environmental factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bronson, F H

    1995-06-01

    Almost all human populations exhibit seasonal variation in births, owing mostly to seasonal variation in the frequency of conception. This review focuses on the degree to which environmental factors like nutrition, temperature and photoperiod contribute to these seasonal patterns by acting directly on the reproductive axis. The reproductive strategy of humans is basically that of the apes: Humans have the capacity to reproduce continuously, albeit slowly, unless inhibited by environmental influences. Two, and perhaps three, environmental factors probably act routinely as seasonal inhibitors in some human populations. First, it seems likely that ovulation is regulated seasonally in populations experiencing seasonal variation in food availability. More specifically, it seems likely that inadequate food intake or the increased energy expenditure required to obtain food, or both, can delay menarche, suppress the frequency of ovulation in the nonlactating adult, and prolong lactational amenorrhea in these populations on a seasonal basis. This action is most easily seen in tropical subsistence societies where food availability often varies greatly owing to seasonal variation in rainfall; hence births in these populations often correlate with rainfall. Second, it seems likely that seasonally high temperatures suppress spermatogenesis enough to influence the incidence of fertilization in hotter latitudes, but possibly only in males wearing clothing that diminishes scrotal cooling. Since most of our knowledge about this phenomenon comes from temperate latitudes, the sensitivity of spermatogenesis in both human and nonhuman primates to heat in the tropics needs further study. It is quite possible that high temperatures suppress ovulation and early embryo survival seasonally in some of these same populations. Since we know less than desired about the effect of heat stress on ovulation and early pregnancy in nonhuman mammals, and nothing at all about it in humans or any of the

  19. Changes in Peak Flow Value during Immunotherapy Administration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saporta, D.

    2012-01-01

    Nasal allergies are prevalent affecting a large percentage of the population. Not only the upper respiratory tract but the whole body is involved. Allergies produce morbidity (and even occasional mortality) as they can lead to asthma development, and increased number of accidents. Immunotherapy results can be evaluated by following symptom scores, medication use, and objective measurements. Using a Peak Flow Meter (Pf) to evaluate immunotherapy results, it became evident that patients with and without asthma exhibited an improvement in the Peak Flow (PF) value, suggesting that lower airway involvement in allergic patients could be more prevalent than assumed. A consecutive chart review was performed including patients of any age with nasal allergies (with or without asthma) treated with immunotherapy for at least 6 months that had at least 2 complete evaluations. When immunotherapy was successful, most patients exhibited an increase in the PF value regardless of asthma status. A very significant finding was that most allergy sufferers may have lower airway inflammation. The use of the PF value to assess immunotherapy results and the potential failure to diagnose asthma in allergy sufferers are discussed. A better diagnosis of lower airway inflammation could be substantial in the management of these patients pulmonary function

  20. Propagation of planktonic copepods: production and mortality of eggs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiørboe, Thomas; Møhlenberg, Flemming; Tiselius, Peter

    1988-01-01

    Data on fecundity and egg mortality of neritic copepods were collected in various seasons, areas and under various hydrographical conditions. On a seasonal basis variations in fecundity (F) were related to temperature rather than to the abundance of phytoplankton (P). However, a strong correlation...... between F and P was evident when water column stability varied horisontally or temporally (i.e. at a tidal front or subsequent to a storm). Estimated specific egg-mortalities were variable and occasionally very severe, up to 9.1 d−1, implying that down to 10−4% of the eggs survive to hatching...

  1. Climate-related variation in plant peak biomass and growth phenology across Pacific Northwest tidal marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffington, Kevin J.; Dugger, Bruce D.; Thorne, Karen M.

    2018-01-01

    The interannual variability of tidal marsh plant phenology is largely unknown and may have important ecological consequences. Marsh plants are critical to the biogeomorphic feedback processes that build estuarine soils, maintain marsh elevation relative to sea level, and sequester carbon. We calculated Tasseled Cap Greenness, a metric of plant biomass, using remotely sensed data available in the Landsat archive to assess how recent climate variation has affected biomass production and plant phenology across three maritime tidal marshes in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. First, we used clipped vegetation plots at one of our sites to confirm that tasseled cap greenness provided a useful measure of aboveground biomass (r2 = 0.72). We then used multiple measures of biomass each growing season over 20–25 years per study site and developed models to test how peak biomass and the date of peak biomass varied with 94 climate and sea-level metrics using generalized linear models and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) model selection. Peak biomass was positively related to total annual precipitation, while the best predictor for date of peak biomass was average growing season temperature, with the peak 7.2 days earlier per degree C. Our study provides insight into how plants in maritime tidal marshes respond to interannual climate variation and demonstrates the utility of time-series remote sensing data to assess ecological responses to climate stressors.

  2. Climate-related variation in plant peak biomass and growth phenology across Pacific Northwest tidal marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffington, Kevin J.; Dugger, Bruce D.; Thorne, Karen M.

    2018-03-01

    The interannual variability of tidal marsh plant phenology is largely unknown and may have important ecological consequences. Marsh plants are critical to the biogeomorphic feedback processes that build estuarine soils, maintain marsh elevation relative to sea level, and sequester carbon. We calculated Tasseled Cap Greenness, a metric of plant biomass, using remotely sensed data available in the Landsat archive to assess how recent climate variation has affected biomass production and plant phenology across three maritime tidal marshes in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. First, we used clipped vegetation plots at one of our sites to confirm that tasseled cap greenness provided a useful measure of aboveground biomass (r2 = 0.72). We then used multiple measures of biomass each growing season over 20-25 years per study site and developed models to test how peak biomass and the date of peak biomass varied with 94 climate and sea-level metrics using generalized linear models and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) model selection. Peak biomass was positively related to total annual precipitation, while the best predictor for date of peak biomass was average growing season temperature, with the peak 7.2 days earlier per degree C. Our study provides insight into how plants in maritime tidal marshes respond to interannual climate variation and demonstrates the utility of time-series remote sensing data to assess ecological responses to climate stressors.

  3. Osteoporosis: Peak Bone Mass in Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... bone density are seen even during childhood and adolescence. Hormonal factors. The hormone estrogen has an effect on peak bone mass. For example, women who had their first menstrual cycle at an early age and those who use oral contraceptives, which contain estrogen, often have high bone mineral ...

  4. Facility Location with Double-peaked Preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Filos-Ratsikas, Aris; Li, Minming; Zhang, Jie

    2015-01-01

    ; this makes the problem essentially more challenging. As our main contribution, we present a simple truthful-in-expectation mechanism that achieves an approximation ratio of 1+b=c for both the social and the maximum, cost, where b is the distance of the agent from the peak and c is the minimum cost...

  5. Robust Peak Recognition in Intracranial Pressure Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bergsneider Marvin

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The waveform morphology of intracranial pressure pulses (ICP is an essential indicator for monitoring, and forecasting critical intracranial and cerebrovascular pathophysiological variations. While current ICP pulse analysis frameworks offer satisfying results on most of the pulses, we observed that the performance of several of them deteriorates significantly on abnormal, or simply more challenging pulses. Methods This paper provides two contributions to this problem. First, it introduces MOCAIP++, a generic ICP pulse processing framework that generalizes MOCAIP (Morphological Clustering and Analysis of ICP Pulse. Its strength is to integrate several peak recognition methods to describe ICP morphology, and to exploit different ICP features to improve peak recognition. Second, it investigates the effect of incorporating, automatically identified, challenging pulses into the training set of peak recognition models. Results Experiments on a large dataset of ICP signals, as well as on a representative collection of sampled challenging ICP pulses, demonstrate that both contributions are complementary and significantly improve peak recognition performance in clinical conditions. Conclusion The proposed framework allows to extract more reliable statistics about the ICP waveform morphology on challenging pulses to investigate the predictive power of these pulses on the condition of the patient.

  6. Liquid waste processing at Comanche Peak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes-Edwards, L.M.; Edwards, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    This article describes the radioactive waste processing at Comanche Peak Steam Electric Station. Topics covered are the following: Reduction of liquid radioactive discharges (system leakage, outage planning); reduction of waste resin generation (waste stream segregation, processing methodology); reduction of activity released and off-site dose. 8 figs., 2 tabs

  7. Avoiding the False Peaks in Correlation Discrimination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Awwal, A.S.

    2009-01-01

    Fiducials imprinted on laser beams are used to perform video image based alignment of the 192 laser beams in the National Ignition Facility (NIF) of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. In many video images, matched filtering is used to detect the location of these fiducials. Generally, the highest correlation peak is used to determine the position of the fiducials. However, when the signal to-be-detected is very weak compared to the noise, this approach totally breaks down. The highest peaks act as traps for false detection. The active target images used for automatic alignment in the National Ignition Facility are examples of such images. In these images, the fiducials of interest exhibit extremely low intensity and contrast, surrounded by high intensity reflection from metallic objects. Consequently, the highest correlation peaks are caused by these bright objects. In this work, we show how the shape of the correlation is exploited to isolate the valid matches from hundreds of invalid correlation peaks, and therefore identify extremely faint fiducials under very challenging imaging conditions

  8. Hubbert's Peak: the Impending World oil Shortage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deffeyes, K. S.

    2004-12-01

    Global oil production will probably reach a peak sometime during this decade. After the peak, the world's production of crude oil will fall, never to rise again. The world will not run out of energy, but developing alternative energy sources on a large scale will take at least 10 years. The slowdown in oil production may already be beginning; the current price fluctuations for crude oil and natural gas may be the preamble to a major crisis. In 1956, the geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s.1 Almost everyone, inside and outside the oil industry, rejected Hubbert's analysis. The controversy raged until 1970, when the U.S. production of crude oil started to fall. Hubbert was right. Around 1995, several analysts began applying Hubbert's method to world oil production, and most of them estimate that the peak year for world oil will be between 2004 and 2008. These analyses were reported in some of the most widely circulated sources: Nature, Science, and Scientific American.2 None of our political leaders seem to be paying attention. If the predictions are correct, there will be enormous effects on the world economy. Even the poorest nations need fuel to run irrigation pumps. The industrialized nations will be bidding against one another for the dwindling oil supply. The good news is that we will put less carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The bad news is that my pickup truck has a 25-gallon tank.

  9. Seasonal abundance and molecular identification of West Nile virus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Seasonal abundance and molecular identification of West Nile virus vectors, Culex pipens and Culex ... Background: West Nile virus (WNV) infection, is an arbovirus infection with high morbidity and mortality, the vector respon- sible for both human ... Major diseases transmitted are known as Arboviral dis- eases because ...

  10. Seasonal Effects of Habitat on Sources and Rates of Snowshoe Hare Predation in Alaskan Boreal Forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dashiell Feierabend

    Full Text Available Survival and predation of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus has been widely studied, yet there has been little quantification of the changes in vulnerability of hares to specific predators that may result from seasonal changes in vegetation and cover. We investigated survival and causes of mortalities of snowshoe hares during the late increase, peak, and decline of a population in interior Alaska. From June 2008 to May 2012, we radio-tagged 288 adult and older juvenile hares in early successional and black spruce (Picea mariana forests and, using known-fate methods in program MARK, evaluated 85 survival models that included variables for sex, age, and body condition of hares, as well as trapping site, month, season, year, snowfall, snow depth, and air temperature. We compared the models using Akaike's information criterion with correction for small sample size. Model results indicated that month, capture site, and body condition were the most important variables in explaining survival rates. Survival was highest in July, and more generally during summer, when alternative prey was available to predators of hares. Low survival rates coincided with molting periods, breeding activity in the spring, and the introduction of juveniles to the sample population in the fall. We identified predation as the cause of mortality in 86% of hare deaths. When the source of predation could be determined, hares were killed more often by goshawks (Accipiter gentilis than other predators in early successional forest (30%, and more often by lynx (Lynx canadensis than other predators in black spruce forest (31%. Great horned owls (Bubo virginianus and coyotes (Canis latrans represented smaller proportions of hare predation, and non-predatory causes were a minor source (3% of mortality. Because hares rely on vegetative cover for concealment from predators, we measured cover in predation sites and habitats that the hares occupied and concluded that habitat type had a

  11. Prediction of peak overlap in NMR spectra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hefke, Frederik; Schmucki, Roland; Güntert, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Peak overlap is one of the major factors complicating the analysis of biomolecular NMR spectra. We present a general method for predicting the extent of peak overlap in multidimensional NMR spectra and its validation using both, experimental data sets and Monte Carlo simulation. The method is based on knowledge of the magnetization transfer pathways of the NMR experiments and chemical shift statistics from the Biological Magnetic Resonance Data Bank. Assuming a normal distribution with characteristic mean value and standard deviation for the chemical shift of each observable atom, an analytic expression was derived for the expected overlap probability of the cross peaks. The analytical approach was verified to agree with the average peak overlap in a large number of individual peak lists simulated using the same chemical shift statistics. The method was applied to eight proteins, including an intrinsically disordered one, for which the prediction results could be compared with the actual overlap based on the experimentally measured chemical shifts. The extent of overlap predicted using only statistical chemical shift information was in good agreement with the overlap that was observed when the measured shifts were used in the virtual spectrum, except for the intrinsically disordered protein. Since the spectral complexity of a protein NMR spectrum is a crucial factor for protein structure determination, analytical overlap prediction can be used to identify potentially difficult proteins before conducting NMR experiments. Overlap predictions can be tailored to particular classes of proteins by preparing statistics from corresponding protein databases. The method is also suitable for optimizing recording parameters and labeling schemes for NMR experiments and improving the reliability of automated spectra analysis and protein structure determination.

  12. The peak in anomalous magnetic viscosity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collocott, S.J.; Watterson, P.A.; Tan, X.H.; Xu, H.

    2014-01-01

    Anomalous magnetic viscosity, where the magnetization as a function of time exhibits non-monotonic behaviour, being seen to increase, reach a peak, and then decrease, is observed on recoil lines in bulk amorphous ferromagnets, for certain magnetic prehistories. A simple geometrical approach based on the motion of the state line on the Preisach plane gives a theoretical framework for interpreting non-monotonic behaviour and explains the origin of the peak. This approach gives an expression for the time taken to reach the peak as a function of the applied (or holding) field. The theory is applied to experimental data for bulk amorphous ferromagnet alloys of composition Nd 60−x Fe 30 Al 10 Dy x , x = 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4, and it gives a reasonable description of the observed behaviour. The role played by other key magnetic parameters, such as the intrinsic coercivity and fluctuation field, is also discussed. When the non-monotonic behaviour of the magnetization of a number of alloys is viewed in the context of the model, features of universal behaviour emerge, that are independent of alloy composition. - Highlights: • Development of a simple geometrical model based on the Preisach model which gives a complete explanation of the peak in the magnetic viscosity. • Geometrical approach is extended by considering equations that govern the motion of the state line. • The model is used to deduce the relationship between the holding field and the time it takes to reach the peak. • The model is tested with experimental results for a range of Nd–Fe–Al–Dy bulk amorphous ferromagnets. • There is good agreement between the model and the experimental data

  13. The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harriet L Mills

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of novel respiratory pathogens can challenge the capacity of key health care resources, such as intensive care units, that are constrained to serve only specific geographical populations. An ability to predict the magnitude and timing of peak incidence at the scale of a single large population would help to accurately assess the value of interventions designed to reduce that peak. However, current disease-dynamic theory does not provide a clear understanding of the relationship between: epidemic trajectories at the scale of interest (e.g. city; population mobility; and higher resolution spatial effects (e.g. transmission within small neighbourhoods. Here, we used a spatially-explicit stochastic meta-population model of arbitrary spatial resolution to determine the effect of resolution on model-derived epidemic trajectories. We simulated an influenza-like pathogen spreading across theoretical and actual population densities and varied our assumptions about mobility using Latin-Hypercube sampling. Even though, by design, cumulative attack rates were the same for all resolutions and mobilities, peak incidences were different. Clear thresholds existed for all tested populations, such that models with resolutions lower than the threshold substantially overestimated population-wide peak incidence. The effect of resolution was most important in populations which were of lower density and lower mobility. With the expectation of accurate spatial incidence datasets in the near future, our objective was to provide a framework for how to use these data correctly in a spatial meta-population model. Our results suggest that there is a fundamental spatial resolution for any pathogen-population pair. If underlying interactions between pathogens and spatially heterogeneous populations are represented at this resolution or higher, accurate predictions of peak incidence for city-scale epidemics are feasible.

  14. Timing of floods in southeastern China: Seasonal properties and potential causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Luo, Ming

    2017-09-01

    Flood hazards and flood risks in southeastern China have been causing increasing concerns due to dense population and highly-developed economy. This study attempted to address changes of seasonality, timing of peak floods and variability of occurrence date of peak floods using circular statistical methods and the modified Mann-Kendall trend detection method. The causes of peak flood changes were also investigated. Results indicated that: (1) floods were subject to more seasonality and temporal clustering when compared to precipitation extremes. However, seasonality of floods and extreme precipitation was subject to spatial heterogeneity in northern Guangdong. Similar changing patterns of peak floods and extreme precipitation were found in coastal regions; (2) significant increasing/decreasing seasonality, but no confirmed spatial patterns, were observed for peak floods and extreme precipitation. Peak floods in northern Guangdong province had decreasing variability, but had larger variability in coastal regions; (3) tropical cyclones had remarkable impacts on extreme precipitation changes in coastal regions of southeastern China, and peak floods as well. The landfalling of tropical cyclones was decreasing and concentrated during June-September; this is the major reason for earlier but enhanced seasonality of peak floods in coastal regions. This study sheds new light on flood behavior in coastal regions in a changing environment.

  15. Lagged effect of diurnal temperature range on mortality in a subtropical megacity of China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Luo

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Many studies have found extreme temperature can increase the risk of mortality. However, it is not clear whether extreme diurnal temperature range (DTR is associated with daily disease-specific mortality, and how season might modify any association. OBJECTIVES: To better understand the acute effect of DTR on mortality and identify whether season is a modifier of the DTR effect. METHODS: The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM was applied to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of DTR on deaths (non-accidental mortality (NAD, cardiovascular disease (CVD, respiratory disease (RD and cerebrovascular disease (CBD in the full year, the cold season and the warm season. RESULTS: A non-linear relationship was consistently found between extreme DTR and mortality. Immediate effects of extreme low DTR on all types of mortality were stronger than those of extreme high DTR in the full year. The cumulative effects of extreme DTRs increased with the increment of lag days for all types of mortality in cold season, and they were greater for extreme high DTRs than those of extreme low DTRs. In hot season, the cumulative effects for extreme low DTRs increased with the increment of lag days, but for extreme high DTR they reached maxima at a lag of 13 days for all types of mortality except for CBD(at lag6 days, and then decreased. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that extreme DTR is an independent risk factor of daily mortality, and season is a modifier of the association of DTR with daily mortality.

  16. Seasonal and age-related changes in the micro-anatomy of the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Peak prostate mass, alveoli diameter and secretory cell height indi- cate that ... Recently. attention was accorded to the seasonal reproductive cycle of male fur seals ... The sam- pling procedure was selective to include all age groups. Body.

  17. Variation of respiratory syncytial virus and the relation with meteorological factors in different winter seasons.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meerhoff, T.J.; Paget, W.J.; Kimpen, J.L.; Schellevis, F.

    2009-01-01

    Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most important viral agent causing severe respiratory disease in infants and children. In temperate climates, RSV activity typically peaks during winter. We have described the seasonal variation in RSV activity and investigated which

  18. Seasonal variability in penaeid prawn larval abundance in the Mandovi and Zuari estuaries, Goa

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Goswami, S.C.; Goswami, U.

    more in the bottom samples. Based on larval density, M. dobsoni appeared to be a continuous breeder. The active spawning periods in other species were during the late postmonsoon and premonsoon seasons varying with the species. Peak recruitment...

  19. Meteorological Influences on the Seasonality of Lyme Disease in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M.; Eisen, Rebecca J.; Monaghan, Andrew; Mead, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Lyme disease (Borrelia burgdorferi infection) is the most common vector-transmitted disease in the United States. The majority of human Lyme disease (LD) cases occur in the summer months, but the timing of the peak occurrence varies geographically and from year to year. We calculated the beginning, peak, end, and duration of the main LD season in 12 highly endemic states from 1992 to 2007 and then examined the association between the timing of these seasonal variables and several meteorological variables. An earlier beginning to the LD season was positively associated with higher cumulative growing degree days through Week 20, lower cumulative precipitation, a lower saturation deficit, and proximity to the Atlantic coast. The timing of the peak and duration of the LD season were also associated with cumulative growing degree days, saturation deficit, and cumulative precipitation, but no meteorological predictors adequately explained the timing of the end of the LD season. PMID:24470565

  20. Loneliness, health and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, J; Larsen, E R; Mattisson, C

    2017-01-01

    Aims.: Literature suggests an association between loneliness and mortality for both males and females. Yet, the linkage of loneliness to mortality is not thoroughly examined, and need to be replicated with a long follow-up time. This study assessed the association between loneliness and mortality...... not been previously reported. If replicated, our results indicate that loneliness may have differential physical implications in some subgroups. Future studies are needed to further investigate the influence of gender on the relationship....

  1. Seasonal variability of physico–chemical characteristics of the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Salinity varied spatially and temporally and seasonally during ebb and flood tide conditions. ... The tidal varia- tion at the mouth is from 6.1 m at springs to 0.22 m at neaps. The fresh water discharge ranges from a peak value of 4250m3 s−1 to almost zero in the ...... National Conference on Harbour and Ocean Engineer-.

  2. Preparing for the Season (A Cup of Health with CDC)

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2016-12-08

    Flu season starts in the fall and goes through the spring, typically peaking between January and March in the United States. In this podcast, Dr. Joe Bresee discusses the importance of getting vaccinated against the flu every year.  Created: 12/8/2016 by MMWR.   Date Released: 12/8/2016.

  3. Seasonal succession in zooplankton feeding traits reveals trophic trait coupling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kenitz, Kasia; Visser, Andre; Mariani, Patrizio

    2017-01-01

    non-motile cells flourishing in spring and motile community dominating during summer. The zooplankton community is dominated by active feeding-current feeders with peak biomass in the late spring declining during summer. The model reveals how zooplankton grazing reinforces protist plankton seasonal...

  4. Blue Oak Canopy Effect on Seasonal Forage Production and Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    William E. Frost; Neil K. McDougald; Montague W. Demment

    1991-01-01

    Forage production and forage quality were measured seasonally beneath the canopy of blue oak (Quercus douglasii) and in open grassland at the San Joaquin Experimental Range. At the March and peak standing crop sampling dates forage production was significantly greater (p=.05) beneath blue oak compared to open grassland. At most sampling dates, the...

  5. Stereotactic Bragg peak proton radiosurgery method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjellberg, R.N.

    1979-01-01

    A brief description of the technical aspects of a stereotactic Bragg peak proton radiosurgical method for the head is presented. The preparatory radiographic studies are outlined and the stereotactic instrument and positioning of the patient are described. The instrument is so calibrated that after corrections for soft tissue and bone thickness, the Bragg peak superimposes upon the intracranial target. The head is rotated at specific intervals to allow predetermined portals of access for the beam path, all of which converge on the intracranial target. Normally, portals are arranged to oppose and overlap from both sides of the head. Using a number of beams (in sequence) on both sides of the head, the target dose is far greater than the path dose. The procedure normally takes 3/2-2 hours, following which the patient can walk away. (Auth./C.F.)

  6. Central peaking of magnetized gas discharges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Francis F.; Curreli, Davide

    2013-01-01

    Partially ionized gas discharges used in industry are often driven by radiofrequency (rf) power applied at the periphery of a cylinder. It is found that the plasma density n is usually flat or peaked on axis even if the skin depth of the rf field is thin compared with the chamber radius a. Previous attempts at explaining this did not account for the finite length of the discharge and the boundary conditions at the endplates. A simple 1D model is used to focus on the basic mechanism: the short-circuit effect. It is found that a strong electric field (E-field) scaled to electron temperature T e , drives the ions inward. The resulting density profile is peaked on axis and has a shape independent of pressure or discharge radius. This “universal” profile is not affected by a dc magnetic field (B-field) as long as the ion Larmor radius is larger than a

  7. Peak Oil, Food Systems, and Public Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Cindy L.; Kirschenmann, Frederick L.; Tinch, Jennifer; Lawrence, Robert S.

    2011-01-01

    Peak oil is the phenomenon whereby global oil supplies will peak, then decline, with extraction growing increasingly costly. Today's globalized industrial food system depends on oil for fueling farm machinery, producing pesticides, and transporting goods. Biofuels production links oil prices to food prices. We examined food system vulnerability to rising oil prices and the public health consequences. In the short term, high food prices harm food security and equity. Over time, high prices will force the entire food system to adapt. Strong preparation and advance investment may mitigate the extent of dislocation and hunger. Certain social and policy changes could smooth adaptation; public health has an essential role in promoting a proactive, smart, and equitable transition that increases resilience and enables adequate food for all. PMID:21778492

  8. Control of deaths from diarrheal disease in rural communities. I. Design of an intervention study and effects on child mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kielmann, A A; Mobarak, A B; Hammamy, M T; Gomaa, A I; Abou-el-Saad, S; Lotfi, R K; Mazen, I; Nagaty, A

    1985-12-01

    From May through October 1980, the "Strengthening Rural Health Delivery" project (SRHD) under the Rural Health Department of the Ministry of Health of Egypt had conducted an investigation into prevention of child mortality from diarrheal disease through testing various modules of Oral Rehydration Therapy delivery mechanisms. In a six-cell design counting a total of almost 29,000 children, ORT was provided both as hypotonic sucrose/salt solution prepared and administered by mothers and normotonic, balanced electrolyte solution in the hands of both mothers and health care providers and the effects on child mortality during the peak season of diarrheal incidence were measured. In addition, utilization and effects of ORT when made readily available through commercial channels was similarly examined. A cost-benefit analysis was performed on the cost of the services as well as on the outcome for each of five study cells using the sixth, the control, as reference. Results showed that early rehydration with a sucrose/salt solution in the hands of mothers, backed by balanced oral rehydration solution in the hands of health care providers proved the most cost-effective means of reducing diarrhea-specific mortality as well as being as safe as prepackaged commercial preparations.

  9. Hanford Site peak gust wind speeds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramsdell, J.V.

    1998-01-01

    Peak gust wind data collected at the Hanford Site since 1945 are analyzed to estimate maximum wind speeds for use in structural design. The results are compared with design wind speeds proposed for the Hanford Site. These comparisons indicate that design wind speeds contained in a January 1998 advisory changing DOE-STD-1020-94 are excessive for the Hanford Site and that the design wind speeds in effect prior to the changes are still appropriate for the Hanford Site

  10. Commodity hydrogen from off-peak electricity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darrow, K.; Biederman, N.; Konopka, A.

    1977-01-01

    This paper considers the use of off-peak electrical power as an energy source for the electrolytic production of hydrogen. The present industrial uses for hydrogen are examined to determine if hydrogen produced in this fashion would be competitive with the industry's onsite production or existing hydrogen prices. The paper presents a technical and economic feasibility analysis of the various components required and of the operation of the system as a whole including production, transmission, storage, and markets.

  11. Some practical aspects of peak kilovoltage measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irfan, A.Y.; Pugh, V.I.; Jeffery, C.D.

    1985-01-01

    The peak kilovoltage (kVsub(p)) across the X-ray tube electrodes in diagnostic X-ray machines is a most important parameter, affecting both radiation output and beam quality. Four commercially available non-invasive devices used for kVsub(p) measurement were tested using a selection of generator waveforms. The majority of the devices provided satisfactory measurements of the kVsub(p) to within approximately +- kV provided certain operating conditions are observed. (U.K.)

  12. METing SUSY on the Z peak

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barenboim, G.; Bernabeu, J.; Vives, O. [Universitat de Valencia, Departament de Fisica Teorica, Burjassot (Spain); Universitat de Valencia-CSIC, Parc Cientific U.V., IFIC, Paterna (Spain); Mitsou, V.A.; Romero, E. [Universitat de Valencia-CSIC, Parc Cientific U.V., IFIC, Paterna (Spain)

    2016-02-15

    Recently the ATLAS experiment announced a 3 σ excess at the Z-peak consisting of 29 pairs of leptons together with two or more jets, E{sub T}{sup miss} > 225 GeV and HT > 600 GeV, to be compared with 10.6 ± 3.2 expected lepton pairs in the Standard Model. No excess outside the Z-peak was observed. By trying to explain this signal with SUSY we find that only relatively light gluinos, m{sub g} or similar 400 GeV decaying predominantly to Z-boson plus a light gravitino, such that nearly every gluino produces at least one Z-boson in its decay chain, could reproduce the excess. We construct an explicit general gauge mediation model able to reproduce the observed signal overcoming all the experimental limits. Needless to say, more sophisticated models could also reproduce the signal, however, any model would have to exhibit the following features: light gluinos, or heavy particles with a strong production cross section, producing at least one Z-boson in its decay chain. The implications of our findings for the Run II at LHC with the scaling on the Z peak, as well as for the direct search of gluinos and other SUSY particles, are pointed out. (orig.)

  13. Acquisition of peak responding: what is learned?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balci, Fuat; Gallistel, Charles R; Allen, Brian D; Frank, Krystal M; Gibson, Jacqueline M; Brunner, Daniela

    2009-01-01

    We investigated how the common measures of timing performance behaved in the course of training on the peak procedure in C3H mice. Following fixed interval (FI) pre-training, mice received 16 days of training in the peak procedure. The peak time and spread were derived from the average response rates while the start and stop times and their relative variability were derived from a single-trial analysis. Temporal precision (response spread) appeared to improve in the course of training. This apparent improvement in precision was, however, an averaging artifact; it was mediated by the staggered appearance of timed stops, rather than by the delayed occurrence of start times. Trial-by-trial analysis of the stop times for individual subjects revealed that stops appeared abruptly after three to five sessions and their timing did not change as training was prolonged. Start times and the precision of start and stop times were generally stable throughout training. Our results show that subjects do not gradually learn to time their start or stop of responding. Instead, they learn the duration of the FI, with robust temporal control over the start of the response; the control over the stop of response appears abruptly later.

  14. METing SUSY on the Z peak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barenboim, G.; Bernabeu, J.; Vives, O.; Mitsou, V.A.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    Recently the ATLAS experiment announced a 3 σ excess at the Z-peak consisting of 29 pairs of leptons together with two or more jets, E T miss > 225 GeV and HT > 600 GeV, to be compared with 10.6 ± 3.2 expected lepton pairs in the Standard Model. No excess outside the Z-peak was observed. By trying to explain this signal with SUSY we find that only relatively light gluinos, m g or similar 400 GeV decaying predominantly to Z-boson plus a light gravitino, such that nearly every gluino produces at least one Z-boson in its decay chain, could reproduce the excess. We construct an explicit general gauge mediation model able to reproduce the observed signal overcoming all the experimental limits. Needless to say, more sophisticated models could also reproduce the signal, however, any model would have to exhibit the following features: light gluinos, or heavy particles with a strong production cross section, producing at least one Z-boson in its decay chain. The implications of our findings for the Run II at LHC with the scaling on the Z peak, as well as for the direct search of gluinos and other SUSY particles, are pointed out. (orig.)

  15. Monitoring device for local power peaking coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihashi, Ishi

    1987-01-01

    Purpose: To determine and monitor the local power peaking coefficients by a method not depending on the combination of fuel types. Constitution: Representative values for the local power distribution can be obtained by determining corresponding burn-up degrees based on the burn-up degree of each of fuel assembly segments obtained in a power distribution monitor and by the interpolation and extrapolation of void coefficients. The typical values are multiplied with compensation coefficients for the control rod effect and coefficients for compensating the effect of adjacent fuel assemblies in a calculation device to obtain typical values for the present local power distribution compensated with all of the effects. Further, the calculation device compares them with typical values of the present local power distribution to obtain an aimed local power peaking coefficient as the maximum value thereof. According to the present invention, since the local power peaking coefficients can be determined not depending on the combination of the kind of fuels, if the combination of fuel assemblies is increased upon fuel change, the amount of operation therefor is not increased. (Kamimura, M.)

  16. Detection of early warning signals of forest mortality in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Kumar, M.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Massive forest mortality was observed in California during the most recent drought. Owing to complex interactions of physiological mechanisms under stress, prediction of climate-induced forest mortality using dynamic global vegetation models remains fraught with uncertainty. Given that forest ecosystems approaching mortality tend to exhibit reduction in resilience, we evaluate the time-varying resilience from time series of satellite images to detect early warning signals (EWSs) of mortality. Four metrics of EWSs are used: (1) low greenness, (2) high empirical autocorrelation of greenness, (3) high autocorrelation inferred using a Bayesian dynamic linear model considering the influence of seasonality and climate conditions, and (4) low recovery rate inferred from the drift term in the Langevin equation describing stochastic dynamics. Spatial accuracy and lead-time of these EWSs are evaluated by comparing the EWSs against observed mortality from aerial surveys conducted by the US Forest Service. Our results show that most forested areas in California that underwent mortality exhibit a EWS with a lead time of three months to two years ahead of observed mortality. Notably, EWS is also detected in some areas without mortality, suggesting reduced resilience during drought. Furthermore, the influence of the previous drought (2007-2009) may have propagated into the recent drought (2012-2016) through reduced resilience, hence contributing to the massive forest mortality observed recently. Methodologies developed in this study for detection of EWS will improve the near-term predictability of forest mortality, thus providing crucial information for forest and water resource management.

  17. Drowning is an apparent and unexpected recurrent cause of mass mortality of Common starlings (Sturnus vulgaris)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, Becki; Duff, J. Paul; Beckmann, Katie M.; Chantrey, Julian; Peck, Kirsi M.; Irvine, Richard M.; Robinson, Robert A.; Cunningham, Andrew A.

    2015-01-01

    Drowning is infrequently reported as a cause of death of wild birds and such incidents typically involve individual, rather than multiple, birds. Over a 21-year period (1993 to 2013 inclusive), we investigated 12 incidents of mortality of multiple (2 − 80+) Common starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) in Great Britain that appeared to be due to drowning. More than ten birds were affected in ten of these reported incidents. These incidents always occurred during the spring and early summer months and usually involved juvenile birds. In all cases, circumstantial evidence and post-mortem examinations indicated drowning to be the most likely cause of death with no underlying disease found. A behavioural explanation seems likely, possibly related to the gregarious nature of this species combined with juvenile inexperience in identifying water hazards. A review of data from the ringed bird recovery scheme across Great Britain (1909–2013 inclusive) of both starlings and Common blackbirds (Turdus merula), also a common garden visitor, identified additional suspected drowning incidents, which were significantly more common in the former species, supporting a species predisposition to drowning. For each species there was a marked seasonal peak from April to August. Drowning should be included as a differential diagnosis when investigating incidents of multiple starling mortality, especially of juveniles. PMID:26601771

  18. Warming and Acidification Induced Mass Mortality of a Coastal Keystone predator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melzner, F.; Findeisen, U.

    2016-02-01

    The Baltic Sea is characterized by low salinity and pronounced fluctuations in pCO2. On-line monitoring of pCO2 in 2014 in Kiel Fjord demonstrated occurrence of peak values of >2,000 µatm in summer and autumn and average values >750 µatm. We assessed the impacts of elevated temperature (ambient temperature, ambient +3°C) and pCO2 (500, 1,500, 2,400 µatm) on the keystone species Asterias rubens in a fully crossed long - term experiment (N=5 replicate tanks each, 1 year duration). During spring and early summer (February - June), high temperature animals ingested significantly more food and spawned significantly earlier (April 30th) than ambient acclimated animals (May 23rd). Elevated pCO2 led to comparatively minor reductions in food intake and scope for growth during that period. During summer (June - August), elevated temperature >25°C caused negative energy budgets and >95% mortality in the warm acclimated groups, while mortality was low in the ambient temperature groups. Our results indicate that A. rubens may benefit from increased temperature during colder months, yet dramatically suffer during summer heat waves in warm years. Meaningful experimental approaches to assess species vulnerability to climate change need to encompass all seasons and realistic abiotic stressor levels.

  19. Secondary ozone peaks in the troposphere over the Himalayas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Ojha

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Layers with strongly enhanced ozone concentrations in the middle–upper troposphere, referred to as secondary ozone peaks (SOPs, have been observed in different regions of the world. Here we use the global ECHAM5/MESSy atmospheric chemistry model (EMAC to (i investigate the processes causing SOPs, (ii explore both their frequency of occurrence and seasonality, and (iii assess their effects on the tropospheric ozone budget over the Himalayas. The vertical profiles of potential vorticity (PV and a stratospheric ozone tracer (O3s in EMAC simulations, in conjunction with the structure of SOPs, suggest that SOPs over the Himalayas are formed by stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT of ozone. The spatial distribution of O3s further shows that such effects are in general most pronounced in the northern part of India. Model simulated ozone distributions and backward air trajectories show that ozone rich air masses, associated with STT, originate as far as northern Africa and the North Atlantic Ocean, the Middle East, as well as in nearby regions in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and are rapidly (within 2–3 days transported to the Himalayas. Analysis of a 15-year (2000–2014 EMAC simulation shows that the frequency of SOPs is highest during the pre-monsoon season (e.g. 11 % of the time in May, while no intense SOP events are found during the July–October period. The SOPs are estimated to enhance the tropospheric column ozone (TCO over the central Himalayas by up to 21 %.

  20. [Influenza surveillance in nine consecutive seasons, 2003-2012: results from National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Istanbul Faculty Of Medicine, Turkey].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akçay Ciblak, Meral; Kanturvardar Tütenyurd, Melis; Asar, Serkan; Tulunoğlu, Merve; Fındıkçı, Nurcihan; Badur, Selim

    2012-10-01

    Influenza is a public health problem that affects 5-20% of the world population annually causing high morbidity and mortality especially in risk groups. In addition to determining prevention and treatment strategies with vaccines and antivirals, surveillance data plays an important role in combat against influenza. Surveillance provides valuable data on characteristics of influenza activity, on types, sub-types, antigenic properties and antiviral resistance profile of circulating viruses in a given region. The first influenza surveillance was initiated as a pilot study in 2003 by now named National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Istanbul Faculty of Medicine. Surveillance was launched at national level by Ministry of Health in 2004 and two National Influenza Laboratories, one in Istanbul and the other in Ankara, have been conducting surveillance in Turkey. Surveillance data obtained for nine consecutive years, 2003-2012, by National Influenza Reference Laboratory in Istanbul Faculty of Medicine have been summarized in this report. During 2003-2012 influenza surveillance seasons, a total of 11.077 nasal swabs collected in viral transport medium were sent to the National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Istanbul for analysis. Immun-capture ELISA followed by MDCK cell culture was used for detection of influenza viruses before 2009 and real-time RT-PCR was used thereafter. Antigenic characterizations were done by hemagglutination inhibition assay with the reactives supplied by World Health Organization. Analysis of the results showed that influenza B viruses have entered the circulation in 2005-2006 seasons, and have contributed to the epidemics at increasing rates every year except in the 2009 pandemic season. Influenza B Victoria and Yamagata lineages were cocirculating for two seasons. For other seasons either lineage was in circulation. Antigenic characterization revealed that circulating B viruses matched the vaccine composition either partially or totally for only

  1. Seasonal Patterns of Gastrointestinal Illness and Streamflow along the Ohio River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena N. Naumova

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Waterborne gastrointestinal (GI illnesses demonstrate seasonal increases associated with water quality and meteorological characteristics. However, few studies have been conducted on the association of hydrological parameters, such as streamflow, and seasonality of GI illnesses. Streamflow is correlated with biological contamination and can be used as proxy for drinking water contamination. We compare seasonal patterns of GI illnesses in the elderly (65 years and older along the Ohio River for a 14-year period (1991–2004 to seasonal patterns of streamflow. Focusing on six counties in close proximity to the river, we compiled weekly time series of hospitalizations for GI illnesses and streamflow data. Seasonal patterns were explored using Poisson annual harmonic regression with and without adjustment for streamflow. GI illnesses demonstrated significant seasonal patterns with peak timing preceding peak timing of streamflow for all six counties. Seasonal patterns of illness remain consistent after adjusting for streamflow. This study found that the time of peak GI illness precedes the peak of streamflow, suggesting either an indirect relationship or a more direct path whereby pathogens enter water supplies prior to the peak in streamflow. Such findings call for interdisciplinary research to better understand associations among streamflow, pathogen loading, and rates of gastrointestinal illnesses.

  2. Chinese emissions peak: Not when, but how

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spencer, Thomas; Colombier, Michel; Wang, Xin; Sartor, Oliver; Waisman, Henri

    2016-07-01

    It seems highly likely that China will overachieve its 2020 and 2030 targets, and peak its emissions before 2030 and possibly at a lower level than often assumed. This paper argues that the debate on the timing of the peak is misplaced: what matters is not when by why. For the peak to be seen as a harbinger of deep transformation, it needs to be based on significant macro-economic reform and restructuring, with attendant improvement in energy intensity. The Chinese economic model has been extraordinarily investment and resource intensive, and has driven the growth in GHG emissions. That model is no longer economically or environmentally sustainable. Therefore Chinese policy-makers are faced with a trade-off between slower short-term growth and economic reform, versus supporting short-term growth but slowing economic reform. The outcome will be crucial for the transition to a low-carbon economy. Overall, the 13. FYP (2016-2020) gives the impression of a cautious reflection of the new normal paradigm on the economic front, and a somewhat conservative translation of this shift into the energy and climate targets. Nonetheless, the 13. FYP targets set China well on the way to overachieving its 2020 pledge undertaken at COP15 in Copenhagen, and to potentially overachieving its INDC. It thus seems likely that China will achieve its emissions peak before 2030. However, the crucial question is not when China peaks, but whether the underlying transformation of the Chinese economy and energy system lays the basis for deep decarbonization thereafter. Thorough assessments of the implications of the 'new normal' for Chinese emissions and energy system trajectories, taking into account the link with the Chinese macro-economy, are needed. Scenarios provide a useful framework and should focus on a number of short-term uncertainties. Most energy system and emissions scenarios published today assume a continuity of trends between 2010-2015 and 2015-2020, which is at odds with clear

  3. Seasonal atmospheric extinction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mikhail, J.S.

    1979-01-01

    Mean monochromatic extinction coefficients at various wavelengths at the Kottamia Observatory site have shown the existence of a seasonal variation of atmospheric extinction. The extinction of aerosol compontnts with wavelengths at winter represent exceedingly good conditions. Spring gives the highest extinction due to aerosol. (orig.)

  4. Seasonality of Rural Finance

    OpenAIRE

    Khandker, Shahidur R.; Samad, Hussain A.; Badruddoza, Syed

    2017-01-01

    Simultaneity of borrowing, withdrawal of savings, and loan defaults due to the pronounced seasonality of agriculture often leads to investment failure of rural financial institutions. Lack of borrowing leads to lack of in-come- and consumption-smoothing, and in turn, causes inefficient resource allocation by rural households. Financial institutions that are active in rural areas take diffe...

  5. The Hungry Season

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    start to go some way towards addressing this fundamental question. A delightful animation of The Hungry Season, commissioned by Leonie Joubert and funded by the University of Cape Town's Criminology. Department and the Embassy of Finland, is available online at http://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=iX77NZttLKo.

  6. Antiviral Drugs: Seasonal Flu

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2010-09-29

    In this podcast, Dr. Joe Bresee explains the nature of antiviral drugs and how they are used for seasonal flu.  Created: 9/29/2010 by National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD).   Date Released: 9/29/2010.

  7. Warning Signs: Seasonal Flu

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2010-09-29

    In this podcast, Dr. Joe Bresee describes the main symptoms of seasonal flu and when it is serious enough to seek medical help.  Created: 9/29/2010 by National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD).   Date Released: 9/29/2010.

  8. Take Three: Seasonal Flu

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2010-09-29

    In this podcast, Dr. Joe Bresee describes how to keep from getting seasonal flu and spreading it to others by taking these three steps.  Created: 9/29/2010 by National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD).   Date Released: 9/29/2010.

  9. Aspects of Seasonal and Long-term Trends in Fisheries and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... Schilbe moebiusii and Hydrocynus tanzaniae. A distinct seasonal pattern in fish catches was found, where more fish were landed in the dry months (June, July, August and September) and less during peak of the rainy season (March to May). Reduction of fishing effort, crop farming and inaccessibility of fish landing sites ...

  10. Extended duration of parturition season in North American elk (Cervus elaphus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbara J. Keller; Amy D. Bleisch; Joshua J. Millspaugh; Chad P. Lehman; Jackie J. Kragel; Lonnie P. Hansen; Jason Sumners; Mark A. Rumble; Gary C. Brundige

    2015-01-01

    The timing of births in ungulates has significant implications for juvenile survival and population growth. For North American elk (Cervus elaphus), typical parturition season ranges from late May to early Jun., and juveniles born outside of this peak characteristically exhibit lowered survival. We observed abnormally long parturition seasons in free-ranging elk...

  11. The timing of birds' breeding seasons : the Perrins hypothesis revisited especially for migrants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drent, Rudolf H.

    2006-01-01

    Perrins (1970) galvanized thinking on the timing of birds' breeding seasons by pointing out that most individuals laid too late for the offspring to profit fully from the seasonal peak of food abundance, and suggested that the proximate cause was a shortage of food for the female when forming the

  12. Under-Five Mortality

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    under-five mortality rate (U5MR) by two thirds between. 1990 and 2015. For Zambia, this means ... 1Institute of Economic and Social Research, University of Zambia ... live births;. 2. Neonatal mortality: Deaths during the first 28 days of life. 3. Post-neonatal ... children born/woman) and rapid (3%) population growth on living ...

  13. Mortality in ankylosing spondylitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Exarchou, Sofia; Lie, Elisabeth; Lindström, Ulf

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Information on mortality in ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is scarce. Our study therefore aimed to assess: (1) mortality in AS versus the general population, and (2) predictors of death in the AS population. METHODS: Nationwide cohorts of patients with AS diagnosed at rheumatology or int...

  14. Mortality associated with phaeochromocytoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prejbisz, A; Lenders, J W M; Eisenhofer, G; Januszewicz, A

    2013-02-01

    Two major categories of mortality are distinguished in patients with phaeochromocytoma. First, the effects of excessive circulating catecholamines may result in lethal complications if the disease is not diagnosed and/or treated timely. The second category of mortality is related to development of metastatic disease or other neoplasms. Improvements in disease recognition and diagnosis over the past few decades have reduced mortality from undiagnosed tumours. Nevertheless, many tumours remain unrecognised until they cause severe complications. Death resulting from unrecognised or untreated tumour is caused by cardiovascular complications. There are also numerous drugs and diagnostic or therapeutic manipulations that can cause fatal complications in patients with phaeochromocytoma. Previously it has been reported that operative mortality was as high as 50% in unprepared patients with phaeochromocytoma who were operated and in whom the diagnosis was unsuspected. Today mortality during surgery in medically prepared patients with the tumour is minimal. Phaeochromocytomas may be malignant at presentation or metastases may develop later, but both scenarios are associated with a potentially lethal outcome. Patients with phaeochromocytoma run an increased risk to develop other tumours, resulting in an increased mortality risk compared to the general population. Phaeochromocytoma during pregnancy represents a condition with potentially high maternal and foetal mortality. However, today phaeochromocytoma in pregnancy is recognised earlier and in conjunction with improved medical management, maternal mortality has decreased to less than 5%. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  15. Between Two Worlds: Twin Peaks and the Film/Television Divide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siobhan Lyons

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In 1992, the year David Lynch’s cult television series 'Twin Peaks' was pulled off air, Lynch released the film 'Twin Peaks: Fire Walk with Me', a prequel to the television series which filled in some of the gaps left from the series finale cliff-hanger. The film was received with unanimously negative reviews from critics and fans alike, condemning both its subtle and obvious deviations from the series and its inclusion of the character Laura Palmer, whose absence was a crucial narrative device at the centre of 'Twin Peaks'. In film form, the 'Twin Peaks' narrative suffers from thematic inconsistencies and aesthetic deviations. The scope of 'Twin Peaks' seems much more capable in the setting of television and its gradual, episodic set-up. In recent years, however, with the announcement of a revival of the series, retrospective analysis of 'Fire Walk with Me' has become more positive, and the film has also become an integral part of the overall 'Twin Peaks' canon. Nevertheless, the transition from television to film in the case of 'Twin Peaks' has remained a point of fan and scholarly controversy, with issues of continuity, narrative and aesthetics between the two different mediums continually being addressed and compared. In light of the news that the new season of 'Twin Peaks' is set to be released in 2017, this article examines the significance of 'Fire Walk with Me' as a cinematic counterpart and prequel to the original series, and how this has helped shape – whether positively or not – the overall narrative of 'Twin Peaks'.

  16. Species biogeography predicts drought responses in a seasonally dry tropical forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, N.; Powers, J. S.; Vargas, G.; Xu, X.; Smith, C. M.; Brodribb, T.; Werden, L. K.; Becknell, J.; Medvigy, D.

    2017-12-01

    The timing, distribution, and amount of rainfall in the seasonal tropics have shifted in recent years, with consequences for seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF). SDTF are sensitive to changing rainfall regimes and drought conditions, but sensitivity to drought varies substantially across species. One potential explanation of species differences is that species that experience dry conditions more frequently throughout their range will be better able to cope with drought than species from wetter climates, because species from drier climates will be better adapted to drought. An El-Niño induced drought in 2015 presented an opportunity to assess species-level differences in mortality in SDTF, and to ask whether the ranges of rainfall conditions species experience and the average rainfall regimes in species' ranges predict differences in mortality rates in Costa Rican SDTF. We used field plot data from northwest Costa Rica to determine species' level mortality rates. Mortality rates ranged substantially across species, with some species having no dead individuals to as high as 50% mortality. To quantify rainfall conditions across species' ranges, we used species occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and rainfall data from the Chelsa climate dataset. We found that while the average and range of mean annual rainfall across species ranges did not predict drought-induced mortality in the field plots, across-range averages of the seasonality index, a measure of rainfall seasonality, was strongly correlated with species-level drought mortality (r = -0.62, p < 0.05), with species from more strongly seasonal climates experiencing less severe drought mortality. Furthermore, we found that the seasonality index was a stronger predictor of mortality than any individual functional trait we considered. This result shows that species' biogeography may be an important factor for how species will respond to future drought, and may be a more integrative

  17. Seasonality of fire weather strongly influences fire regimes in South Florida savanna-grassland landscapes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William J Platt

    Full Text Available Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature. We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993-2009 data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires over a 13-year period with fire records (1997-2009. Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with

  18. Seasonality of Fire Weather Strongly Influences Fire Regimes in South Florida Savanna-Grassland Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platt, William J.; Orzell, Steve L.; Slocum, Matthew G.

    2015-01-01

    Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993–2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997–2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of

  19. Maternal Mortality in Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baeva, Sonia; Archer, Natalie P; Ruggiero, Karen; Hall, Manda; Stagg, Julie; Interis, Evelyn Coronado; Vega, Rachelle; Delgado, Evelyn; Hellerstedt, John; Hankins, Gary; Hollier, Lisa M

    2017-05-01

    A commentary on maternal mortality in Texas is provided in response to a 2016 article in Obstetrics & Gynecology by MacDorman et al. While the Texas Department of State Health Services and the Texas Maternal Mortality and Morbidity Task Force agree that maternal mortality increased sharply from 2010 to 2011, the percentage change or the magnitude of the increase in the maternal mortality rate in Texas differs depending on the statistical methods used to compute and display it. Methodologic challenges in identifying maternal death are also discussed, as well as risk factors and causes of maternal death in Texas. Finally, several state efforts currently underway to address maternal mortality in Texas are described. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  20. Gallstone disease and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shabanzadeh, Daniel Mønsted; Sørensen, Lars Tue; Jørgensen, Torben

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The objective of this cohort study was to determine whether subjects with gallstone disease identified by screening of a general population had increased overall mortality when compared to gallstone-free participants and to explore causes of death. METHODS: The study population (N...... built. RESULTS: Gallstone disease was present in 10%. Mortality was 46% during median 24.7 years of follow-up with 1% lost. Overall mortality and death from cardiovascular diseases were significantly associated to gallstone disease. Death from unknown causes was significantly associated to gallstone...... disease and death from cancer and gastrointestinal disease was not associated. No differences in mortality for ultrasound-proven gallstones or cholecystectomy were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Gallstone disease is associated with increased overall mortality and to death from cardiovascular disease. Gallstones...

  1. A prospective population study of resting heart rate and peak oxygen uptake (the HUNT Study, Norway.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javaid Nauman

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: We assessed the prospective association of resting heart rate (RHR at baseline with peak oxygen uptake (VO(2peak 23 years later, and evaluated whether physical activity (PA could modify this association. BACKGROUND: Both RHR and VO(2peak are strong and independent predictors of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, the association of RHR with VO(2peak and modifying effect of PA have not been prospectively assessed in population studies. METHODS: In 807 men and 810 women free from cardiovascular disease both at baseline (1984-86 and follow-up 23 years later, RHR was recorded at both occasions, and VO(2peak was measured by ergospirometry at follow-up. We used Generalized Linear Models to assess the association of baseline RHR with VO(2peak, and to study combined effects of RHR and self-reported PA on later VO(2peak. RESULTS: There was an inverse association of RHR at baseline with VO(2peak (p<0.01. Men and women with baseline RHR greater than 80 bpm had 4.6 mL.kg(-1.min(-1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8 to 6.3 and 1.4 mL.kg(-1.min(-1 (95% CI, -0.4 to 3.1 lower VO(2peak at follow-up compared with men and women with RHR below 60 bpm at baseline. We found a linear association of change in RHR with VO(2peak (p=0.03, suggesting that a decrease in RHR over time is likely to be beneficial for cardiovascular fitness. Participants with low RHR and high PA at baseline had higher VO(2peak than inactive people with relatively high RHR. However, among participants with relatively high RHR and high PA at baseline, VO(2peak was similar to inactive people with relatively low RHR. CONCLUSION: RHR is an important predictor of VO(2peak, and serial assessments of RHR may provide useful and inexpensive information on cardiovascular fitness. The results suggest that high levels of PA may compensate for the lower VO(2peak associated with a high RHR.

  2. The decline in winter excess mortality in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kunst, A. E.; Looman, C. W.; Mackenbach, J. P.

    1991-01-01

    In most countries, numbers of deaths rise considerably during the winter season. This winter excess in mortality has, however, been declining during recent decades. The causes of this decline are hardly known. This paper attempts to derive a number of hypotheses on the basis of a detailed

  3. Temperature extremes and infant mortality in Bangladesh: Hotter months, lower mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babalola, Olufemi; Razzaque, Abdur; Bishai, David

    2018-01-01

    Our study aims to obtain estimates of the size effects of temperature extremes on infant mortality in Bangladesh using monthly time series data. Data on temperature, child and infant mortality were obtained for Matlab district of rural Bangladesh for January 1982 to December 2008 encompassing 49,426 infant deaths. To investigate the relationship between mortality and temperature, we adopted a regression with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) errors model of seasonally adjusted temperature and mortality data. The relationship between monthly mean and maximum temperature on infant mortality was tested at 0 and 1 month lags respectively. Furthermore, our analysis was stratified to determine if the results differed by gender (boys versus girls) and by age (neonates (≤ 30 days) versus post neonates (>30days and Bangladesh. Each degree Celsius increase in mean monthly temperature reduced monthly mortality by 3.672 (SE 1.544, pBangladesh. This may reflect a more heightened sensitivity of infants to hypothermia than hyperthermia in this environment.

  4. Particle creation by peak electric field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adorno, T.C. [Tomsk State University, Department of Physics, Tomsk (Russian Federation); Gavrilov, S.P. [Tomsk State University, Department of Physics, Tomsk (Russian Federation); Herzen State Pedagogical University of Russia, Department of General and Experimental Physics, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Gitman, D.M. [Tomsk State University, Department of Physics, Tomsk (Russian Federation); P. N. Lebedev Physical Institute, Moscow (Russian Federation); University of Sao Paulo, Institute of Physics, CP 66318, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2016-08-15

    The particle creation by the so-called peak electric field is considered. The latter field is a combination of two exponential parts, one exponentially increasing and another exponentially decreasing. We find exact solutions of the Dirac equation with the field under consideration with appropriate asymptotic conditions and calculate all the characteristics of particle creation effect, in particular, differential mean numbers of created particle, total number of created particles, and the probability for a vacuum to remain a vacuum. Characteristic asymptotic regimes are discussed in detail and a comparison with the pure asymptotically decaying field is considered. (orig.)

  5. Octant vectorcardiography - the evaluation by peaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laufberger, V

    1982-01-01

    From the Frank lead potentials a computer prints out an elementary table. Therein, the electrical space of left ventricle depolarization is divided into eight spatial parts labelled by numbers 1-8 and called octants. Within these octants six peaks are determined labelled with letters ALPR-IS. Their localization is described by six-digit topograms characteristic for each patient. From 300 cases of patients after myocardial infarction, three data bases were compiled enabling every case to be classified into classes, subclasses and types. The follow up of patients according to these principles gives an objective and detailed image about the progress of coronary artery disease.

  6. Energy peaks: A high energy physics outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franceschini, Roberto

    2017-12-01

    Energy distributions of decay products carry information on the kinematics of the decay in ways that are at the same time straightforward and quite hidden. I will review these properties and discuss their early historical applications, as well as more recent ones in the context of (i) methods for the measurement of masses of new physics particle with semi-invisible decays, (ii) the characterization of Dark Matter particles produced at colliders, (iii) precision mass measurements of Standard Model particles, in particular of the top quark. Finally, I will give an outlook of further developments and applications of energy peak method for high energy physics at colliders and beyond.

  7. Method and apparatus for current-output peak detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Geronimo, Gianluigi

    2017-01-24

    A method and apparatus for a current-output peak detector. A current-output peak detector circuit is disclosed and works in two phases. The peak detector circuit includes switches to switch the peak detector circuit from the first phase to the second phase upon detection of the peak voltage of an input voltage signal. The peak detector generates a current output with a high degree of accuracy in the second phase.

  8. Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Shaman

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent reanalysis of laboratory experiments indicates that absolute humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here, we extend these findings to the human population level, showing that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low absolute humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological model, in which observed absolute humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. The model results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by absolute humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. These findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that absolute humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions.

  9. Computation of peak discharge at culverts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Rolland William

    1957-01-01

    Methods for computing peak flood flow through culverts on the basis of a field survey of highwater marks and culvert geometry are presented. These methods are derived from investigations of culvert flow as reported in the literature and on extensive laboratory studies of culvert flow. For convenience in computation, culvert flow has been classified into six types, according to the location of the control section and the relative heights of the head-water and tail-water levels. The type of flow which occurred at any site can be determined from the field data and the criteria given in this report. A discharge equation has been developed for each flow type by combining the energy and continuity equations for the distance between an approach section upstream from the culvert and a terminal section within the culvert barrel. The discharge coefficient applicable to each flow type is listed for the more common entrance geometries. Procedures for computing peak discharge through culverts are outlined in detail for each of the six flow types.

  10. Comparison of five portable peak flow meters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takara, Glaucia Nency; Ruas, Gualberto; Pessoa, Bruna Varanda; Jamami, Luciana Kawakami; Di Lorenzo, Valéria Amorim Pires; Jamami, Mauricio

    2010-05-01

    To compare the measurements of spirometric peak expiratory flow (PEF) from five different PEF meters and to determine if their values are in agreement. Inaccurate equipment may result in incorrect diagnoses of asthma and inappropriate treatments. Sixty-eight healthy, sedentary and insufficiently active subjects, aged from 19 to 40 years, performed PEF measurements using Air Zone, Assess, Galemed, Personal Best and Vitalograph peak flow meters. The highest value recorded for each subject for each device was compared to the corresponding spirometric values using Friedman's test with Dunn's post-hoc (pmeters were 428 (263-688 L/min), 450 (350-800 L/min), 420 (310-720 L/min), 380 (300-735 L/min), 400 (310-685 L/min) and 415 (335-610 L/min), respectively. Significant differences were found when the spirometric values were compared to those recorded by the Air Zone(R) (pmeters. There was no agreement between the spirometric values and the five PEF meters. The results suggest that the values recorded from Galemed meters may underestimate the actual value, which could lead to unnecessary interventions, and that Air Zone meters overestimate spirometric values, which could obfuscate the need for intervention. These findings must be taken into account when interpreting both devices' results in younger people. These differences should also be considered when directly comparing values from different types of PEF meters.

  11. Monitoring device for local power peaking coefficient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitsuhashi, Ishi

    1987-01-01

    Purpose: To monitor the local power peaking coefficients obtained by the method not depending on the combination of fuel types. Method: A plurality of representative values for the local power distribution determined by the nuclear constant calculation for one fuel assembly are memorized regarding each of the burn-up degree and the void coefficient on every positions and fuel types in fuel rod assemblies. While on the other hand, the representative values for the local power distribution as described above are compensated by a compensation coefficient considering the effect of adjacent segments and a control rod compensation coefficient considering the effect due to the control rod insertion relative to the just-mentioned compensation coefficient. Then, the maximum value among them is selected to determine the local power peaking coefficient at each of the times and each of the segments, which is monitored. According to this system, the calculation and the working required for the fitting work depending on the combination of fuel types are no more required at all to facilitate the maintenance as well. (Horiuchi, T.)

  12. Seasonal variation in diurnal atmospheric grass pollen concentration profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peel, Robert George; Ørby, Pia Viuf; Skjøth, Carsten Ambelas

    2014-01-01

    the time of day when peak concentrations are most likely to occur using seasonally averaged diurnal profiles. Atmospheric pollen loads are highly dependent upon emissions, and different species of grass are known to flower and emit pollen at different times of the day and during different periods......In this study, the diurnal atmospheric grass pollen concentration profile within the Danish city of Aarhus was shown to change in a systematic manner as the pollen season progressed. Although diurnal grass pollen profiles can differ greatly from day-to-day, it is common practice to establish...... of the pollen season. Pollen concentrations are also influenced by meteorological factors - directly through those parameters that govern pollen dispersion and transport, and indirectly through the weather-driven flowering process. We found that three different profiles dominated the grass pollen season...

  13. Peak capacity and peak capacity per unit time in capillary and microchip zone electrophoresis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, Joe P; Blackney, Donna M; Ennis, Erin J

    2017-11-10

    The origins of the peak capacity concept are described and the important contributions to the development of that concept in chromatography and electrophoresis are reviewed. Whereas numerous quantitative expressions have been reported for one- and two-dimensional separations, most are focused on chromatographic separations and few, if any, quantitative unbiased expressions have been developed for capillary or microchip zone electrophoresis. Making the common assumption that longitudinal diffusion is the predominant source of zone broadening in capillary electrophoresis, analytical expressions for the peak capacity are derived, first in terms of migration time, diffusion coefficient, migration distance, and desired resolution, and then in terms of the remaining underlying fundamental parameters (electric field, electroosmotic and electrophoretic mobilities) that determine the migration time. The latter expressions clearly illustrate the direct square root dependence of peak capacity on electric field and migration distance and the inverse square root dependence on solute diffusion coefficient. Conditions that result in a high peak capacity will result in a low peak capacity per unit time and vice-versa. For a given symmetrical range of relative electrophoretic mobilities for co- and counter-electroosmotic species (cations and anions), the peak capacity increases with the square root of the electric field even as the temporal window narrows considerably, resulting in a significant reduction in analysis time. Over a broad relative electrophoretic mobility interval [-0.9, 0.9], an approximately two-fold greater amount of peak capacity can be generated for counter-electroosmotic species although it takes about five-fold longer to do so, consistent with the well-known bias in migration time and resolving power for co- and counter-electroosmotic species. The optimum lower bound of the relative electrophoretic mobility interval [μ r,Z , μ r,A ] that provides the maximum

  14. Turbine related fish mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eicher, G.J.

    1993-01-01

    A literature review was conducted to assess the factors affecting turbine-related fish mortality. The mechanics of fish passage through a turbine is outlined, and various turbine related stresses are described, including pressure and shear effects, hydraulic head, turbine efficiency, and tailwater level. The methodologies used in determining the effects of fish passage are evaluated. The necessity of adequate controls in each test is noted. It is concluded that mortality is the result of several factors such as hardiness of study fish, fish size, concentrations of dissolved gases, and amounts of cavitation. Comparisons between Francis and Kaplan turbines indicate little difference in percent mortality. 27 refs., 5 figs

  15. Mortality after shoulder arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amundsen, Alexander; Rasmussen, Jeppe Vejlgaard; Olsen, Bo Sanderhoff

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The primary aim was to quantify the 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality rates after primary shoulder replacement. The secondary aims were to assess the association between mortality and diagnoses and to compare the mortality rate with that of the general population. METHODS: The study...... included 5853 primary operations reported to the Danish Shoulder Arthroplasty Registry between 2006 and 2012. Information about deaths was obtained from the Danish Cause of Death Register and the Danish Civil Registration System. Age- and sex-adjusted control groups were retrieved from Statistics Denmark...

  16. Vaccination against seasonal flu

    CERN Multimedia

    2015-01-01

    The Medical Service once again recommends you to get your annual flu vaccination for the year.   Vaccination is the most effective way of avoiding the illness and any serious consequences and protecting those around you. The flu can have especially serious consequences for people with chronic conditions (diabetes, cardio-vascular disease, etc.), pregnant women, infants, and people over 65 years of age. Remember, anyone working on the CERN site who wishes to be vaccinated against seasonal flu should go to the Infirmary (Building 57, ground floor) with their vaccine. The Medical Service will issue a prescription on the day of the vaccination for the purposes of reimbursement by UNIQA. NB: The Medical Service cannot provide this vaccination service for family members or retired members of the personnel. For more information: • The "Seasonal flu" flyer by the Medical Service • Recommendations of the Swiss Federal Office of Public...

  17. Vaccination against seasonal influenza

    CERN Multimedia

    DG Unit

    2009-01-01

    As every year, the Medical Service is taking part in the campaign to promote vaccination against seasonal influenza. Vaccination against seasonal influenza is especially recommended for people suffering from chronic lung, cardio-vascular or kidney conditions or diabetes, for those recovering from a serious illness or surgical operation and for everyone over the age of 65. The influenza virus is transmitted by air and contact with contaminated surfaces, hence the importance of washing hands regularly with soap and / or disinfection using a hydro-alcoholic solution. From the onset of symptoms (fever> 38°, chills, cough, muscle aches and / or joint pain, fatigue) you are strongly recommended to stay at home to avoid spreading the virus. In the present context of the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, it is important to dissociate these two illnesses and emphasise that the two viruses and the vaccines used to combat them are quite different and that protection against one will not pr...

  18. Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

    2018-05-01

    The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

  19. Summer season | Cafeteria closures

    CERN Multimedia

    2013-01-01

    Please note the following cafeteria closures over the summer season: Bldg. 54 closed from 29/07/2013 to 06/09/2013. Bldg. 13: closed from 13/07/2013 to 06/09/2013. Restaurant No. 2, table service (brasserie and restaurant): closed from 01/08/2013 to 06/09/2013. Bldg. 864: closed from 29/07/2013 to 06/09/2013. Bldg. 865: closed from 29/07/2013 to 06/09/2013.

  20. Time-series analysis of air pollution and cause-specific mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zmirou, D; Schwartz, J; Saez, M; Zanobetti, A; Wojtyniak, B; Touloumi, G; Spix, C; de Leon, AP; Le Moullec, Y; Bacharova, L; Schouten, J; Ponka, A; Katsouyanni, K

    Ten large European cities provided data on daily air pollution as well as mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular mortality. We used Poisson autoregressive models that controlled for trend, season, influenza epidemics, and meteorologic influences to assess the short-term effects of air

  1. Direct contamination - seasonality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aarkrog, A.

    1994-01-01

    Direct contamination is the primary pathway to terrestrial vegetation in the first period after an activity release to the atmosphere. All radionuclides are able to be transferred via this pathway. Deposition, interception and retention are the three processes involved in direct contamination of crops. Wet deposition is more important than dry deposition in temperature regions. Resuspension and rainsplash both belong to secondary direct deposition and became evident for e.g. radiocaesium after the Chernobyl accident. Seasonality is the varying response to radioactive contamination of crops according to the time of the year when the contamination occurs. Shortlived radionuclides (as 131 I) and those that mainly enter the foodchain by direct contamination (e.g. 137 Cs) are especially important in this connection. In particular, the contamination of cereal crops is influenced by seasonality. As a result of seasonality the impact of the Chernobyl accident on the radioactive contamination of human diet was for the same deposition density higher in southern than in northern Europe. (orig.)

  2. Vaccination against seasonal influenza

    CERN Multimedia

    GS Department

    2010-01-01

    This year, as usual, the Medical Service is helping to promote vaccination against seasonal influenza. Vaccination against seasonal flu is especially recommended for anyone who suffers from chronic pulmonary, cardio-vascular or kidney disease or diabetes, is recovering from a serious illness or major surgery, or is over 65 years of age. The flu virus is transmitted through the air and through contact with contaminated surfaces, so frequent hand-washing with soap and/or an antiseptic hand wash is of great importance. As soon as the first symptoms appear (fever above 38°, shivering, coughing, muscle and/or joint pains, generalised weakness), you are strongly recommended to stay at home to avoid spreading the virus. Anyone working on the CERN site who wishes to be vaccinated against seasonal flu should go to the Infirmary (Building 57, ground floor), with their dose of vaccine. The Medical Service will issue a prescription on the day of the vaccination for the purposes of reimbursement through UNIQA...

  3. Flublok Seasonal Influenza (Flu) Vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... type="submit" value="Submit" /> Archived Flu Emails Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Flublok Seasonal Influenza (Flu) Vaccine Questions & Answers Language: English (US) Español ...

  4. Projections of Seasonal Patterns in Temperature- Related Deaths for Manhattan, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2013-01-01

    Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

  5. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

  6. Coral Reefs: Beyond Mortality?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Sheppard

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The scale of the collapse of coral reef communities in 1998 following a warming episode (Wilkinson, 2000 was unprecedented, and took many people by surprise. The Indian Ocean was the worst affected with a coral mortality over 75% in many areas such as the Chagos Archipelago (Sheppard, 1999, Seychelles (Spencer et al., 2000 and Maldives (McClanahan, 2000. Several other locations were affected at least as much, with mortality reaching 100% (to the nearest whole number; this is being compiled by various authors (e.g., CORDIO, in press. For example, in the Arabian Gulf, coral mortality is almost total across many large areas of shallow water (Sheppard, unpublished; D. George and D. John, personal communication. The mortality is patchy of course, depending on currents, location inside or outside lagoons, etc., but it is now possible to swim for over 200 m and see not one remaining living coral or soft coral on some previously rich reefs.

  7. Seagrass proliferation precedes mortality during hypo-salinity events: a stress-induced morphometric response.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine J Collier

    Full Text Available Halophytes, such as seagrasses, predominantly form habitats in coastal and estuarine areas. These habitats can be seasonally exposed to hypo-salinity events during watershed runoff exposing them to dramatic salinity shifts and osmotic shock. The manifestation of this osmotic shock on seagrass morphology and phenology was tested in three Indo-Pacific seagrass species, Halophila ovalis, Halodule uninervis and Zostera muelleri, to hypo-salinity ranging from 3 to 36 PSU at 3 PSU increments for 10 weeks. All three species had broad salinity tolerance but demonstrated a moderate hypo-salinity stress response--analogous to a stress induced morphometric response (SIMR. Shoot proliferation occurred at salinities <30 PSU, with the largest increases, up to 400% increase in shoot density, occurring at the sub-lethal salinities <15 PSU, with the specific salinity associated with peak shoot density being variable among species. Resources were not diverted away from leaf growth or shoot development to support the new shoot production. However, at sub-lethal salinities where shoots proliferated, flowering was severely reduced for H. ovalis, the only species to flower during this experiment, demonstrating a diversion of resources away from sexual reproduction to support the investment in new shoots. This SIMR response preceded mortality, which occurred at 3 PSU for H. ovalis and 6 PSU for H. uninervis, while complete mortality was not reached for Z. muelleri. This is the first study to identify a SIMR in seagrasses, being detectable due to the fine resolution of salinity treatments tested. The detection of SIMR demonstrates the need for caution in interpreting in-situ changes in shoot density as shoot proliferation could be interpreted as a healthy or positive plant response to environmental conditions, when in fact it could signal pre-mortality stress.

  8. Peak Electric Load Relief in Northern Manhattan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hildegaard D. Link

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The aphorism “Think globally, act locally,” attributed to René Dubos, reflects the vision that the solution to global environmental problems must begin with efforts within our communities. PlaNYC 2030, the New York City sustainability plan, is the starting point for this study. Results include (a a case study based on the City College of New York (CCNY energy audit, in which we model the impacts of green roofs on campus energy demand and (b a case study of energy use at the neighborhood scale. We find that reducing the urban heat island effect can reduce building cooling requirements, peak electricity loads stress on the local electricity grid and improve urban livability.

  9. Tim Peake and Britain's road to space

    CERN Document Server

    Seedhouse, Erik

    2017-01-01

    This book puts the reader in the flight suit of Britain’s first male astronaut, Tim Peake. It chronicles his life, along with the Principia mission and the down-to-the-last-bolt descriptions of life aboard the ISS, by way of the hurdles placed by the British government and the rigors of training at Russia’s Star City military base. In addition, this book discusses the learning curves required in astronaut and mission training and the complexity of the technologies required to launch an astronaut and keep them alive for months on end. This book underscores the fact that technology and training, unlike space, do not exist in a vacuum; complex technical systems, like the ISS, interact with the variables of human personality, and the cultural background of the astronauts. .

  10. Complex behavior of elevators in peak traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagatani, Takashi

    2003-08-01

    We study the dynamical behavior of elevators in the morning peak traffic. We present a stochastic model of the elevators to take into account the interactions between elevators through passengers. The dynamics of the elevators is expressed in terms of a coupled nonlinear map with noises. The number of passengers carried by an elevator and the time-headway between elevators exhibit the complex behavior with varying elevator trips. It is found that the behavior of elevators exhibits a deterministic chaos even if there are no noises. The chaotic motion depends on the loading parameter, the maximum capacity of an elevator, and the number of elevators. When the loading parameter is superior to the threshold, each elevator carries a full load of passengers throughout its trip. The dependence of the threshold (transition point) on the elevator capacity is clarified.

  11. Equivalence principle and the baryon acoustic peak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldauf, Tobias; Mirbabayi, Mehrdad; Simonović, Marko; Zaldarriaga, Matias

    2015-08-01

    We study the dominant effect of a long wavelength density perturbation δ (λL) on short distance physics. In the nonrelativistic limit, the result is a uniform acceleration, fixed by the equivalence principle, and typically has no effect on statistical averages due to translational invariance. This same reasoning has been formalized to obtain a "consistency condition" on the cosmological correlation functions. In the presence of a feature, such as the acoustic peak at ℓBAO, this naive expectation breaks down for λLexplicitly applied to the one-loop calculation of the power spectrum. Finally, the success of baryon acoustic oscillation reconstruction schemes is argued to be another empirical evidence for the validity of the results.

  12. Reducing infant mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, T R

    1994-01-01

    Public health and social policies at the population level (e.g., oral rehydration therapy and immunization) are responsible for the major reduction in infant mortality worldwide. The gap in infant mortality rates between developing and developed regions is much less than that in maternal mortality rates. This indicates that maternal and child health (MCH) programs and women's health care should be combined. Since 1950, 66% of infant deaths occur in the 1st 28 days, indicating adverse prenatal and intrapartum events (e.g., congenital malformation and birth injuries). Infection, especially pneumonia and diarrhea, and low birth weight are the major causes of infant mortality worldwide. An estimated US$25 billion are needed to secure the resources to control major childhood diseases, reduce malnutrition 50%, reduce child deaths by 4 million/year, provide potable water and sanitation to all communities, provide basic education, and make family planning available to all. This cost for saving children's lives is lower than current expenditures for cigarettes (US$50 billion in Europe/year). Vitamin A supplementation, breast feeding, and prenatal diagnosis of congenital malformations are low-cost strategies that can significantly affect infant well-being and reduce child mortality in many developing countries. The US has a higher infant mortality rate than have other developed countries. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and the US National Institutes of Health are focusing on prematurity, low birth weight, multiple pregnancy, violence, alcohol abuse, and poverty to reduce infant mortality. Obstetricians should be important members of MCH teams, which also include traditional birth attendants, community health workers, nurses, midwives, and medical officers. We have the financial resources to allocate resources to improve MCH care and to reduce infant mortality.

  13. Comparison of five portable peak flow meters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glaucia Nency Takara

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To compare the measurements of spirometric peak expiratory flow (PEF from five different PEF meters and to determine if their values are in agreement. Inaccurate equipment may result in incorrect diagnoses of asthma and inappropriate treatments. METHODS: Sixty-eight healthy, sedentary and insufficiently active subjects, aged from 19 to 40 years, performed PEF measurements using Air Zone®, Assess®, Galemed®, Personal Best® and Vitalograph® peak flow meters. The highest value recorded for each subject for each device was compared to the corresponding spirometric values using Friedman's test with Dunn's post-hoc (p<0.05, Spearman's correlation test and Bland-Altman's agreement test. RESULTS: The median and interquartile ranges for the spirometric values and the Air Zone®, Assess®, Galemed®, Personal Best® and Vitalograph® meters were 428 (263-688 L/min, 450 (350-800 L/min, 420 (310-720 L/min, 380 (300-735 L/min, 400 (310-685 L/min and 415 (335-610 L/min, respectively. Significant differences were found when the spirometric values were compared to those recorded by the Air Zone® (p<0.001 and Galemed ® (p<0.01 meters. There was no agreement between the spirometric values and the five PEF meters. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that the values recorded from Galemed® meters may underestimate the actual value, which could lead to unnecessary interventions, and that Air Zone® meters overestimate spirometric values, which could obfuscate the need for intervention. These findings must be taken into account when interpreting both devices' results in younger people. These differences should also be considered when directly comparing values from different types of PEF meters.

  14. NEW SEASON NEW HOPES: OFF-SEASON OPTIMISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oguz Ersan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available While literature on the relation between on-field sports performance and stock returns is ample, there is very limited evidence on off-season stage. Constituting around 3 months, off-seasons do not only occupy a significant part of the year but also represent totally different characteristics than on-seasons. They lack the periodic, unambiguous news events in on-seasons (match results, instead they are associated with highly uncertain transfer news and rumors. We show that this distinction has several impacts on the stock market performances of soccer clubs. Most notably, off-seasons generate substantially higher (excess returns. After controlling for other variables, the estimated effect of off-season periods is as high as 38.75%, annually. In line with several seminal studies, we link this fact to increased optimism and betting behavior through uncertain periods; and periods prior to the start of a new calendar (in our case, new season. For all of the examined 7 clubs (3 from Italy and 4 from Turkey, mean excess returns over the market are positive (negative in off-seasons (on-seasons. On-seasons are associated with increased trading activity due to more frequent news. Stocks of Italian clubs are evidently more volatile through off-seasons while volatility results for the stocks of Turkish clubs are not consistent.

  15. Factors Associated With Mortality of Thyroid Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, Yosuke; Ono, Sachiko; Yasunaga, Hideo; Matsui, Hiroki; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Tanaka, Yuji

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Thyroid storm is a life-threatening and emergent manifestation of thyrotoxicosis. However, predictive features associated with fatal outcomes in this crisis have not been clearly defined because of its rarity. The objective of this study was to investigate the associations of patient characteristics, treatments, and comorbidities with in-hospital mortality. We conducted a retrospective observational study of patients diagnosed with thyroid storm using a national inpatient database in Japan from April 1, 2011 to March 31, 2014. Of approximately 21 million inpatients in the database, we identified 1324 patients diagnosed with thyroid storm. The mean (standard deviation) age was 47 (18) years, and 943 (71.3%) patients were female. The overall in-hospital mortality was 10.1%. The number of patients was highest in the summer season. The most common comorbidity at admission was cardiovascular diseases (46.6%). Multivariable logistic regression analyses showed that higher mortality was significantly associated with older age (≥60 years), central nervous system dysfunction at admission, nonuse of antithyroid drugs and β-blockade, and requirement for mechanical ventilation and therapeutic plasma exchange combined with hemodialysis. The present study identified clinical features associated with mortality of thyroid storm using large-scale data. Physicians should pay special attention to older patients with thyrotoxicosis and coexisting central nervous system dysfunction. Future prospective studies are needed to clarify treatment options that could improve the survival outcomes of thyroid storm. PMID:26886648

  16. Egg mortality: predation and hydrography in the central Baltic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Voss, R.; Hinrichsen, H.-H.; Stepputtis, D.

    2011-01-01

    during the egg phase to be of critical importance. Two years of extensive field investigations in the Bornholm Basin, central Baltic Sea, were undertaken. In 2002, a typical stagnation situation characterized by low salinity and poor oxygen conditions was investigated, and in early 2003, a major inflow...... of North Sea water completely changed the hydrographic conditions by increasing salinity and oxygen content, thereby altering ecological conditions. The goal was to quantify egg mortality caused by predation and hydrography, and to compare these estimates with independent estimates based on cohort analysis....... Results indicated high intra-annual variability in egg mortality. Cod and sprat egg mortality responded differently to the major Baltic inflow: mortality related to hydrographic conditions increased for sprat and decreased for cod. On the other hand, predation mortality during peak spawning decreased...

  17. Enhancing Seasonal Water Outlooks: Needs and Opportunities in the Critical Runoff Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Yocum, H.; Stokes, M.; Miskus, D.

    2017-12-01

    The runoff season is a critical period for the management of water supply in the western U.S., where in many places over 70% of the annual runoff occurs in the snowmelt period. Managing not only the volume, but the intra-seasonal timing of the runoff is important for optimizing storage, as well as achieving other goals such as mitigating flood risk, and providing peak flows for riparian habitat management, for example, for endangered species. Western river forecast centers produce volume forecasts for western reservoirs that are key input into many water supply decisions, and also short term river forecasts out to 10 days. The early volume forecasts each year typically begin in December, and are updated throughout the winter and into the runoff season (April-July for many areas, but varies). This presentation will discuss opportunities for enhancing this existing suite of RFC water outlooks, including the needs for and potential use for "intraseasonal" products beyond those provided by the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system and the volume forecasts. While precipitation outlooks have little skill for many areas and seasons, and may not contribute significantly to the outlook, late winter and spring temperature forecasts have meaningful skill in certain areas and sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales. This current skill in CPC temperature outlooks is an opportunity to translate these products into information about the snowpack and potential runoff timing, even where the skill in precipitation is low. Temperature is important for whether precipitation falls as snow or rain, which is critical for streamflow forecasts, especially in the melt season in snowpack-dependent watersheds. There is a need for better outlooks of the evolution of snowpack, conditions influencing the April-July runoff, and the timing of spring peak or shape of the spring hydrograph. The presentation will also discuss a our work with stakeholders of the River Forecast Centers and the NIDIS

  18. Analyzing seasonality of tuberculosis across Indian states and union territories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pankaj Narula

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available A significant seasonal variation in tuberculosis (TB is observed in north India during 2006–2011, particularly in states like Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan. To quantify the seasonal variation, we measure average amplitude (peak to trough distance across seasons in smear positive cases of TB and observe that it is maximum for Himachal Pradesh (40.01% and minimum for Maharashtra (3.87%. In north India, smear positive cases peak in second quarter (April–June and reach a trough in fourth quarter (October–December, however low seasonal variation is observed in southern region of the country. The significant correlations as 0.64 (p-value < 0.001, 0.54 (p-value < 0.01 and 0.42 (p-value < 0.05 are observed between minimum temperature and seasonality of TB at lag-1 in north, central and northeast India respectively. However, in south India, this correlation is not significant.

  19. Population level evidence for seasonality of the human microbiome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korownyk, Christina; Liu, Fangwei; Garrison, Scott

    2018-04-01

    The objective of this study is to determine whether human body odors undergo seasonal modulation. We utilized google trends search volume from the United States of America from January 1, 2010 to June 24, 2017 for a number of predetermined body odors. Regression modeling of time series data was completed. Our primary outcome was to determine the proportion of the variability in Internet searches for each unpleasant odor (about the mean) that is explained by a seasonal model. We determined that the seasonal (sinusoidal) model provided a significantly better fit than the null model (best straight line fit) for all searches relating to human body odors (P odor, 60% of the variability in search volume for foot odor, and 58% of the variability in search volume for bad breath. Flatulence and bad breath tended to peak in January, foot odor in February, and Axillary odor in July. We conclude that searching by the general public for information on unpleasant body odors undergoes substantial seasonal variation, with the timing of peaks and troughs varying with the body part involved. The symptom burden of such smells may have a similar seasonal variation, as might the composition of the commensal bacterial microflora that play a role in creating them.

  20. Cognitive Resilience and Psychological Responses across a Collegiate Rowing Season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shields, Morgan R; Brooks, M Alison; Koltyn, Kelli F; Kim, Jee-Seon; Cook, Dane B

    2017-11-01

    Student-athletes face numerous challenges across their competitive season. Although mood states have been previously studied, little is known about adaptations in other psychological responses, specifically cognition. The purpose of this study was to characterize cognitive function, mood, sleep, and stress responses at select time points of a season in collegiate rowers. It was hypothesized that during baseline, typical training, and recovery, athletes would show positive mental health profiles, in contrast to decreases in cognition with increases in negative mood and measurements of stress during peak training. Male and female Division I rowers (N = 43) and healthy controls (N = 23) were enrolled and assessed at baseline, typical training, peak training, and recovery. At each time point, measures of cognitive performance (Stroop color-naming task), academic and exercise load, perceived cognitive deficits, mood states, sleep, and stress (via self-report and salivary cortisol) were recorded. Repeated-measures ANOVA revealed significant group-time interactions for perceived exercise load, cognitive deficits, mood states, and perceived stress (P cognitive deficits was positively correlated with mood disturbance (r = 0.54, P Cognitive performance did not change over the course of the season for either group. Cortisol and sleepiness changed over the course of the season but no significant interactions were observed. These results demonstrate that various psychological responses change over the course of a season, but they also highlight adaptation indicative of cognitive resilience among student-athletes.

  1. Norwegian hydropower a valuable peak power source

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brekke, Hermod

    2010-07-01

    given on a possible increase of the Norwegian hydropower peak power production to meet the growing the European demand for peak power caused by the growing non stationary production from wind mills and ocean energy from waves and sea current. Also building of reversible pump turbine power plants will be discussed even if approximately 10% power will be consumed by loss in the pumping phase compared to direct use of the water from reservoirs. (Author)

  2. Libyan armed conflict 2011: Mortality, injury and population displacement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed A. Daw

    2015-09-01

    Conclusion: The Libyan armed conflict resulted in great human loss and social damage mirrored by high rates of mortality, injury and human displacement. Such parameters peaked as the conflict escalated and differed according to the Libyan regions and provinces involved. National and international efforts should be combined to overcome the consequences of these conflicts.

  3. Can You Hear That Peak? Utilization of Auditory and Visual Feedback at Peak Limb Velocity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loria, Tristan; de Grosbois, John; Tremblay, Luc

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: At rest, the central nervous system combines and integrates multisensory cues to yield an optimal percept. When engaging in action, the relative weighing of sensory modalities has been shown to be altered. Because the timing of peak velocity is the critical moment in some goal-directed movements (e.g., overarm throwing), the current study…

  4. OccuPeak: ChIP-Seq peak calling based on internal background modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, Bouke A.; van Duijvenboden, Karel; van den Boogaard, Malou; Christoffels, Vincent M.; Barnett, Phil; Ruijter, Jan M.

    2014-01-01

    ChIP-seq has become a major tool for the genome-wide identification of transcription factor binding or histone modification sites. Most peak-calling algorithms require input control datasets to model the occurrence of background reads to account for local sequencing and GC bias. However, the

  5. Autumn Weather and Winter Increase in Cerebrovascular Disease Mortality

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McDonagh, R

    2016-11-01

    Mortality from cerebrovascular disease increases in winter but the cause is unclear. Ireland’s oceanic climate means that it infrequently experiences extremes of weather. We examined how weather patterns relate to stroke mortality in Ireland. Seasonal data for Sunshine (% of average), Rainfall (% of average) and Temperature (degrees Celsius above average) were collected for autumn (September-November) and winter (December-February) using official Irish Meteorological Office data. National cerebrovascular mortality data was obtained from Quarterly Vital Statistics. Excess winter deaths were calculated by subtracting (nadir) 3rd quarter mortality data from subsequent 1st quarter data. Data for 12 years were analysed, 2002-2014. Mean winter mortality excess was 24.7%. Winter mortality correlated with temperature (r=.60, p=0.04). Rise in winter mortality correlated strongly with the weather in the preceding autumn (Rainfall: r=-0.19 p=0.53, Temperature: r=-0.60, p=0.03, Sunshine, r=0.58, p=0.04). Winter cerebrovascular disease mortality appears higher following cool, sunny autum

  6. Forecasting monthly peak demand of electricity in India—A critique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rallapalli, Srinivasa Rao; Ghosh, Sajal

    2012-01-01

    The nature of electricity differs from that of other commodities since electricity is a non-storable good and there have been significant seasonal and diurnal variations of demand. Under such condition, precise forecasting of demand for electricity should be an integral part of the planning process as this enables the policy makers to provide directions on cost-effective investment and on scheduling the operation of the existing and new power plants so that the supply of electricity can be made adequate enough to meet the future demand and its variations. Official load forecasting in India done by Central Electricity Authority (CEA) is often criticized for being overestimated due to inferior techniques used for forecasting. This paper tries to evaluate monthly peak demand forecasting performance predicted by CEA using trend method and compare it with those predicted by Multiplicative Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (MSARIMA) model. It has been found that MSARIMA model outperforms CEA forecasts both in-sample static and out-of-sample dynamic forecast horizons in all five regional grids in India. For better load management and grid discipline, this study suggests employing sophisticated techniques like MSARIMA for peak load forecasting in India. - Highlights: ► This paper evaluates monthly peak demand forecasting performance by CEA. ► Compares CEA forecasts it with those predicted by MSARIMA model. ► MSARIMA model outperforms CEA forecasts in all five regional grids in India. ► Opportunity exists to improve the performance of CEA forecasts.

  7. Hydroclimatology of Dual Peak Cholera Incidence in Bengal Region: Inferences from a Spatial Explicit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2010-12-01

    The seasonality of cholera and its relation with environmental drivers are receiving increasing interest and research efforts, yet they remain unsatisfactorily understood. A striking example is the observed annual cycle of cholera incidence in the Bengal region which exhibits two peaks despite the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (air and sea surface temperature, zooplankton density, river discharge) follow a synchronous single-peak annual pattern. A first outbreak, mainly affecting the coastal regions, occurs in spring and it is followed, after a period of low incidence during summer, by a second, usually larger, peak in autumn also involving regions situated farther inland. A hydroclimatological explanation for this unique seasonal cycle has been recently proposed: the low river spring flows favor the intrusion of brackish water (the natural environment of the causative agent of the disease) which, in turn, triggers the first outbreak. The summer rising river discharges have a temporary dilution effect and prompt the repulsion of contaminated water which lowers the disease incidence. However, the monsoon flooding, together with the induced crowding of the population and the failure of the sanitation systems, can possibly facilitate the spatial transmission of the disease and promote the autumn outbreak. We test this hypothesis using a mechanistic, spatially explicit model of cholera epidemic. The framework directly accounts for the role of the river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for the annual fluctuation of the river flow. The model is forced with the actual environmental drivers of the region, namely river flow and temperature. Our results show that these two drivers, both having a single peak in the summer, can generate a double peak cholera incidence pattern. Besides temporal patterns, the model is also able to qualitatively reproduce spatial patterns characterized

  8. Quantifying seasonal velocity at Khumbu Glacier, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, E.; Quincey, D. J.; Miles, K.; Hubbard, B. P.; Rowan, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    While the low-gradient debris-covered tongues of many Himalayan glaciers exhibit low surface velocities, quantifying ice flow and its variation through time remains a key challenge for studies aimed at determining the long-term evolution of these glaciers. Recent work has suggested that glaciers in the Everest region of Nepal may show seasonal variability in surface velocity, with ice flow peaking during the summer as monsoon precipitation provides hydrological inputs and thus drives changes in subglacial drainage efficiency. However, satellite and aerial observations of glacier velocity during the monsoon are greatly limited due to cloud cover. Those that do exist do not span the period over which the most dynamic changes occur, and consequently short-term (i.e. daily) changes in flow, as well as the evolution of ice dynamics through the monsoon period, remain poorly understood. In this study, we combine field and remote (satellite image) observations to create a multi-temporal, 3D synthesis of ice deformation rates at Khumbu Glacier, Nepal, focused on the 2017 monsoon period. We first determine net annual and seasonal surface displacements for the whole glacier based on Landsat-8 (OLI) panchromatic data (15m) processed with ImGRAFT. We integrate inclinometer observations from three boreholes drilled by the EverDrill project to determine cumulative deformation at depth, providing a 3D perspective and enabling us to assess the role of basal sliding at each site. We additionally analyze high-frequency on-glacier L1 GNSS data from three sites to characterize variability within surface deformation at sub-seasonal timescales. Finally, each dataset is validated against repeat-dGPS observations at gridded points in the vicinity of the boreholes and GNSS dataloggers. These datasets complement one another to infer thermal regime across the debris-covered ablation area of the glacier, and emphasize the seasonal and spatial variability of ice deformation for glaciers in High

  9. Prediction of iodine activity peak during refuelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hozer, Z.; Vajda, N.

    2001-01-01

    The increase of fission product activities in the primary circuit of a nuclear power plant indicates the existence of defects in some fuel rods. The power change leads to the cooling down of the fuel and results in the fragmentation of the UO 2 pellets, which facilitates the release of fission products from the intergranular regions. Furthermore the injection of boric acid after shutdown will increase the primary activity, due to the solution of deposited fission products from the surface of the core components. The calculation of these phenomena usually is based on the evaluation of activity measurements and power plant data. The estimation of iodine spiking peak during reactor transients is based on correlation with operating parameters, such as reactor power and primary pressure. The approach used in the present method was applied for CANDU reactors. The VVER-440 specific correlations were determined using the activity measurements of the Paks NPP and the data provided by the Russian fuel supplier. The present method is used for the evaluation of the iodine isotopes, as well as the noble gases. A numerical model has been developed for iodine spiking simulation and has been validated against several shutdown transients, measured at Paks NPP. (R.P.)

  10. Fast clustering using adaptive density peak detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Feng; Xu, Yifan

    2017-12-01

    Common limitations of clustering methods include the slow algorithm convergence, the instability of the pre-specification on a number of intrinsic parameters, and the lack of robustness to outliers. A recent clustering approach proposed a fast search algorithm of cluster centers based on their local densities. However, the selection of the key intrinsic parameters in the algorithm was not systematically investigated. It is relatively difficult to estimate the "optimal" parameters since the original definition of the local density in the algorithm is based on a truncated counting measure. In this paper, we propose a clustering procedure with adaptive density peak detection, where the local density is estimated through the nonparametric multivariate kernel estimation. The model parameter is then able to be calculated from the equations with statistical theoretical justification. We also develop an automatic cluster centroid selection method through maximizing an average silhouette index. The advantage and flexibility of the proposed method are demonstrated through simulation studies and the analysis of a few benchmark gene expression data sets. The method only needs to perform in one single step without any iteration and thus is fast and has a great potential to apply on big data analysis. A user-friendly R package ADPclust is developed for public use.

  11. Mortality in epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hitiris, Nikolas; Mohanraj, Rajiv; Norrie, John; Brodie, Martin J

    2007-05-01

    All studies report an increased mortality risk for people with epilepsy compared with the general population. Population-based studies have demonstrated that the increased mortality is often related to the cause of the epilepsy. Common etiologies include neoplasia, cerebrovascular disease, and pneumonia. Deaths in selected cohorts, such as sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP), status epilepticus (SE), suicides, and accidents are more frequently epilepsy-related. SUDEP is a particular cause for concern in younger people, and whether and when SUDEP should be discussed with patients with epilepsy remain problematic issues. Risk factors for SUDEP include generalized tonic-clonic seizures, increased seizure frequency, concomitant learning disability, and antiepileptic drug polypharmacy. The overall incidence of SE may be increasing, although case fatality rates remain constant. Mortality is frequently secondary to acute symptomatic disorders. Poor compliance with treatment in patients with epilepsy accounts for a small proportion of deaths from SE. The incidence of suicide is increased, particularly for individuals with epilepsy and comorbid psychiatric conditions. Late mortality figures in patients undergoing epilepsy surgery vary and are likely to reflect differences in case selection. Future studies of mortality should be prospective and follow agreed guidelines to better quantify risk and causation in individual populations.

  12. Price, environment and security: Exploring multi-modal motivation in voluntary residential peak demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gyamfi, Samuel; Krumdieck, Susan

    2011-01-01

    Peak demand on electricity grids is a growing problem that increases costs and risks to supply security. Residential sector loads often contribute significantly to seasonal and daily peak demand. Demand response projects aim to manage peak demand by applying price signals and automated load shedding technologies. This research investigates voluntary load shedding in response to information about the security of supply, the emission profile and the cost of meeting critical peak demand in the customers' network. Customer willingness to change behaviour in response to this information was explored through mail-back survey. The diversified demand modelling method was used along with energy audit data to estimate the potential peak load reduction resulting from the voluntary demand response. A case study was conducted in a suburb of Christchurch, New Zealand, where electricity is the main source for water and space heating. On this network, all water heating cylinders have ripple-control technology and about 50% of the households subscribe to differential day/night pricing plan. The survey results show that the sensitivity to supply security is on par with price, with the emission sensitivity being slightly weaker. The modelling results show potential 10% reduction in critical peak load for aggregate voluntary demand response. - Highlights: → Multiple-factor behaviour intervention is necessarily for effective residential demand response. → Security signals can achieve result comparable to price. → The modelling results show potential 10% reduction in critical peak load for aggregate voluntary demand response. → New Zealand's energy policy should include innovation and development of VDR programmes and technologies.

  13. Season and preterm birth in Norway: A cautionary tale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinberg, Clarice R; Shi, Min; DeRoo, Lisa A; Basso, Olga; Skjærven, Rolv

    2015-06-01

    Preterm birth is a common, costly and dangerous pregnancy complication. Seasonality of risk would suggest modifiable causes. We examine seasonal effects on preterm birth, using data from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway (2,321,652 births), and show that results based on births are misleading and a fetuses-at-risk approach is essential. In our harmonic-regression Cox proportional hazards model we consider fetal risk of birth between 22 and 37 completed weeks of gestation. We examine effects of both day of year of conception (for early effects) and day of ongoing gestation (for seasonal effects on labour onset) as modifiers of gestational-age-based risk. Naïve analysis of preterm rates across days of birth shows compelling evidence for seasonality (P distribution of the fetal population at risk. When we instead properly treat fetuses as the individuals at risk, restrict analysis to pregnancies with relatively accurate ultrasound-based assessment of gestational age (available since 1998) and adjust for socio-demographic factors and maternal smoking, we find modest effects of both time of year of conception and time of year at risk, with peaks for early preterm near early January and early July. Analyses of seasonal effects on preterm birth are demonstrably vulnerable to confounding by seasonality of conception, measurement error in conception dating, and socio-demographic factors. The seasonal variation based on fetuses reveals two peaks for early preterm, coinciding with New Year's Day and the early July beginning of Norway's summer break, and may simply reflect a holiday-related pattern of unintended conception. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association 2015. This work is written by a US Government employee and is in the public domain in the US.

  14. Music season coming soon

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin in collaboration with Julio Rosenfeld

    2012-01-01

    On 16 June, CERN’s music season will open with Music on the Lawn. The event is the CERN Music Club’s contribution to the Fete de la Musique and will take place on the terrace of Restaurant 1 from 2 p.m. to 8 p.m. The Hardronic Festival, CERN’s long-running rock festival, will be held on the evenings of 20 and 21 July in Prévessin, on the terrace behind Restaurant 3. If you would like to help with the organisation, please contact the Music Club by e-mail: music.club@cern.ch.   The Canettes Blues Band during the 2011 Hardronic Festival. (© Christoph Balle, 2010). Summer is coming, and along with it comes the music season. CERN will be hosting its two annual rock music concerts: Music on the Lawn and the Hardronic Festival. The two events are organised by the CERN Music Club, which has been sharing the enjoyment of good music with its numerous fans for many years. “Music on the Lawn was originally created so that the members of the Mus...

  15. Vaccination against seasonal influenza

    CERN Multimedia

    SC Unit

    2009-01-01

    As every year, the Medical Service is taking part in the campaign to promote vaccination against seasonal influenza. Vaccination against seasonal influenza is especially recommended for people suffering from chronic lung, cardio-vascular or kidney conditions or diabetes, for those recovering from a serious illness or surgical operation and for everyone over the age of 65. The influenza virus is transmitted by air and contact with contaminated surfaces, hence the importance of washing hands regularly with soap and / or disinfection using a hydro-alcoholic solution. From the onset of symptoms (fever> 38°, chills, cough, muscle aches and / or joint pain, fatigue) you are strongly recommended to stay at home to avoid spreading the virus. In the present context of the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, it is important to dissociate these two illnesses and emphasise that the two viruses and the vaccines used to combat them are quite different and that protection against one will not provide protection against the...

  16. Neonatal mortality in Utah.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolley, F R; Schuman, K L; Lyon, J L

    1982-09-01

    A cohort study of neonatal mortality (N = 106) in white singleton births (N = 14,486) in Utah for January-June 1975 was conducted. Using membership and activity in the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS or Mormon) as a proxy for parental health practices, i.e., tobacco and alcohol abstinence, differential neonatal mortality rates were calculated. The influence of potential confounding factors was evaluated. Low activity LDS members were found to have an excess risk of neonatal death five times greater than high activity LDS, with an upper bound of a two-sided 95% confidence interval of 7.9. The data consistently indicate a lower neonatal mortality rate for active LDS members. Non-LDS were found to have a lower rate than either medium or low activity LDS.

  17. Circadian and seasonal variation of migraine attacks in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soriani, Stefano; Fiumana, Elisa; Manfredini, Roberto; Boari, Benedetta; Battistella, Pier Antonio; Canetta, Elisabetta; Pedretti, Stefania; Borgna-Pignatti, Caterina

    2006-01-01

    To investigate the rhythmicity of migraine episodes without aura in a pediatric population. Time of occurrence of 2517 migraine attacks in 115 children was recorded, by means of a diary, both by hourly and monthly intervals. A significant circadian variation, characterized by a peak in the afternoon (P < .001) and one in the early morning (P= .002) was found. A seasonal peak was also observed between November and January, while a nadir was observed in July. The clustering of attacks in the morning and midday and in autumn-winter, with a minimum frequency in July, suggests that school activities may represent an important cause of migraine.

  18. Peak MSC—Are We There Yet?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy R. Olsen

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs are a critical raw material for many regenerative medicine products, including cell-based therapies, engineered tissues, or combination products, and are on the brink of radically changing how the world of medicine operates. Their unique characteristics, potential to treat many indications, and established safety profile in more than 800 clinical trials have contributed to their current consumption and will only fuel future demand. Given the large target patient populations with typical dose sizes of 10's to 100's of millions of cells per patient, and engineered tissues being constructed with 100's of millions to billions of cells, an unprecedented demand has been created for hMSCs. The fulfillment of this demand faces an uphill challenge in the limited availability of large quantities of pharmaceutical grade hMSCs for the industry—fueling the need for parallel rapid advancements in the biomanufacturing of this living critical raw material. Simply put, hMSCs are no different than technologies like transistors, as they are a highly technical and modular product that requires stringent control over manufacturing that can allow for high quality and consistent performance. As hMSC manufacturing processes are optimized, it predicts a future time of abundance for hMSCs, where scientists and researchers around the world will have access to a consistent and readily available supply of high quality, standardized, and economical pharmaceutical grade product to buy off the shelf for their applications and drive product development—this is “Peak MSC.”

  19. Occupational Mortality, Background on

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynge, Elsebeth

    2016-01-01

    in England and Wales from 1851 to 1979–1983, and these studies have provided key data on social inequalities in health. Death certificate studies have been used for identification of occupational groups with high excess risks from specific diseases. Follow-up studies require linkage of individual records......The study of occupational mortality involves the systematic tabulation of mortality by occupational or socioeconomic groups. Three main methods are used to conduct these studies: cross-sectional studies, death certificate studies, and follow-up studies. Cross-sectional studies were undertaken...

  20. Mortality after acute trauma: Progressive decreasing rather than a trimodal distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionut Negoi

    2015-08-01

    Conclusions: The trimodal time distribution of mortality remains a milestone in trauma education and research. Nevertheless, it must be questioned in the modern and very efficient trauma systems, but still very actual for developing trauma care systems. In conclusion, the pattern of mortality due to major trauma seems decreasing continuously with time rather than presenting high peaks of frequency at some moments.

  1. Risk of Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in Relation to Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathes, Robert; Ito, Kazuhiko; Matte, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine the effects of temperature on cardiovascular-related (CVD) morbidity and mortality among New York City (NYC) residents. Introduction Extreme temperatures are consistently shown to have an effect on CVD-related mortality [1, 2]. A large multi-city study of mortality demonstrated a cold-day and hot-day weather effect on CVD-related deaths, with the larger impact occurring on the coldest days [3]. In contrast, the association between weather and CVD-related morbidity is less clear [4, 5]. The purpose of this study is to characterize the effect of temperature on CVD-related emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and mortality on a large, heterogeneous population. Additionally, we conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the impact of air pollutants, specifically fine particulates (PM2.5) and ozone (O3), along with temperature, on CVD outcomes. Methods We analyzed daily weather conditions, ED visits classified as CVD-related based on chief complaint text, hospitalizations, and natural cause deaths that occurred in NYC between 2002 and 2006. ED visits were obtained from data reported daily to the city health department for syndromic surveillance. Inpatient admissions were obtained from the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System, a data reporting system developed by New York State. Mortality data were obtained from the NYC Office of Vital Statistics. Data for PM2.5 and O3 were obtained from all available air quality monitors within the five boroughs of NYC. To estimate risk of CVD morbidity and mortality, we used generalized linear models using a Poisson distribution to calculate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). A non-linear distributed lag was used to model mean temperature in order to allow for its effect on the same day and on subsequent days. Models were fit separately for cold season (October through March) and warm season (April through September) given season may modify the effect on CVD

  2. Breeding phenology of birds: mechanisms underlying seasonal declines in the risk of nest predation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathi L Borgmann

    Full Text Available Seasonal declines in avian clutch size are well documented, but seasonal variation in other reproductive parameters has received less attention. For example, the probability of complete brood mortality typically explains much of the variation in reproductive success and often varies seasonally, but we know little about the underlying cause of that variation. This oversight is surprising given that nest predation influences many other life-history traits and varies throughout the breeding season in many songbirds. To determine the underlying causes of observed seasonal decreases in risk of nest predation, we modeled nest predation of Dusky Flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri in northern California as a function of foliage phenology, energetic demand, developmental stage, conspecific nest density, food availability for nest predators, and nest predator abundance. Seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was not associated with seasonal changes in energetic demand, conspecific nest density, or predator abundance. Instead, seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was associated with foliage density (early, but not late, in the breeding season and seasonal changes in food available to nest predators. Supplemental food provided to nest predators resulted in a numerical response by nest predators, increasing the risk of nest predation at nests that were near supplemental feeders. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foliage density and factors associated with changes in food availability for nest predators are important drivers of temporal patterns in risk of avian nest predation.

  3. Breeding phenology of birds: mechanisms underlying seasonal declines in the risk of nest predation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgmann, Kathi L; Conway, Courtney J; Morrison, Michael L

    2013-01-01

    Seasonal declines in avian clutch size are well documented, but seasonal variation in other reproductive parameters has received less attention. For example, the probability of complete brood mortality typically explains much of the variation in reproductive success and often varies seasonally, but we know little about the underlying cause of that variation. This oversight is surprising given that nest predation influences many other life-history traits and varies throughout the breeding season in many songbirds. To determine the underlying causes of observed seasonal decreases in risk of nest predation, we modeled nest predation of Dusky Flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri) in northern California as a function of foliage phenology, energetic demand, developmental stage, conspecific nest density, food availability for nest predators, and nest predator abundance. Seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was not associated with seasonal changes in energetic demand, conspecific nest density, or predator abundance. Instead, seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was associated with foliage density (early, but not late, in the breeding season) and seasonal changes in food available to nest predators. Supplemental food provided to nest predators resulted in a numerical response by nest predators, increasing the risk of nest predation at nests that were near supplemental feeders. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foliage density and factors associated with changes in food availability for nest predators are important drivers of temporal patterns in risk of avian nest predation.

  4. Pre-"peak water" time in the southwest Yukon: when cryospheric changes trigger hydrological regime shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baraer, M.; Chesnokova, A.; Huh, K. I.; Laperriere-Robillard, T.

    2017-12-01

    Saint-Elias Mountains host numerous cryospheric systems such as glaciers, seasonal and perennial snow cover, permafrost, aufeis, and different forms of buried ice. Those systems are very sensitive to climate changes and exhibit ongoing reduction in extent and/or changes in formation/ablation times. Because they highly influence the hydrological regimes of rivers, cryospheric changes raise concerns about consequences for regional water resources and ecosystems. The present study combines historical data analysis and hydrological modeling in order to estimate how cryospheric changes impact hydrological regimes at eight watersheds of different glacier cover (0- 30%) in the southwest Yukon. Methods combine traditional hydrograph analysis techniques and more advance techniques such as Fast Fourier Transform filters used to isolate significant trends in discharge properties from noise or climatic oscillations. Measured trends in discharge variables are connected to cryospheric changes by using a water balance / peak water model (Baraer et al., 2012), here adapted to the main cryospheric systems that characterize the southwest Yukon.Results show three distinct hydrological regimes for (1) non glacierized, (2) glacierized, and (3) major lakes hosting catchments. The studied glacierized catchments have not passed the "peak water" yet and still exhibit increases in yearly and late summer discharges and a decrease in runoff variability. All watersheds show an increase in winter discharge and a snowmelt-driven shift of yearly peak discharge toward earlier in the season. The study suggests that, in a couple of decades, water resources and dependent ecosystems will face the combined effects of (A) a shift in the contribution trend from declining perennial cryospheric systems and (B) continuing alteration of the contribution from the seasonal cryospheric systems.

  5. Peak-valley-peak pattern of histone modifications delineates active regulatory elements and their directionality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pundhir, Sachin; Bagger, Frederik Otzen; Lauridsen, Felicia Kathrine Bratt

    2016-01-01

    Formation of nucleosome free region (NFR) accompanied by specific histone modifications at flanking nucleosomes is an important prerequisite for enhancer and promoter activity. Due to this process, active regulatory elements often exhibit a distinct shape of histone signal in the form of a peak......-valley-peak (PVP) pattern. However, different features of PVP patterns and their robustness in predicting active regulatory elements have never been systematically analyzed. Here, we present PARE, a novel computational method that systematically analyzes the H3K4me1 or H3K4me3 PVP patterns to predict NFRs. We show...... four ENCODE cell lines and four hematopoietic differentiation stages, we identified several enhancers whose regulatory activity is stage specific and correlates positively with the expression of proximal genes in a particular stage. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that PVP patterns delineate...

  6. Seasonal soybean crop reflectance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaster, E. W. (Principal Investigator); Chance, J. E.

    1983-01-01

    Data are presented from field measurements of 1980 including 5 acquisitions of handheld radiometer reflectance measurements, 7 complete sets of parameters for implementing the Suits mode, and other biophysical parameters to characterize the soybean canopy. LANDSAT calculations on the simulated Brazilian soybean reflectance are included along with data collected during the summer and fall on 1981 on soybean single leaf optical parameters for three irrigation treatments. Tests of the Suits vegetative canopy reflectance model for the full hemisphere of observer directions as well as the nadir direction show moderate agreement for the visible channels of the MSS and poor agreement in the near infrared channel. Temporal changes in the spectral characteristics of the single leaves were seen to occur as a function of maturity which demonstrates that the absorptance of a soybean single leaf is more a function of thetransmittancee characteristics than the seasonally consistent single leaf reflectance.

  7. Road traffic related mortality in Vietnam: Evidence for policy from a national sample mortality surveillance system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ngo Anh D

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Road traffic injuries (RTIs are among the leading causes of mortality in Vietnam. However, mortality data collection systems in Vietnam in general and for RTIs in particular, remain inconsistent and incomplete. Underlying distributions of external causes and body injuries are not available from routine data collection systems or from studies till date. This paper presents characteristics, user type pattern, seasonal distribution, and causes of 1,061 deaths attributable to road crashes ascertained from a national sample mortality surveillance system in Vietnam over a two-year period (2008 and 2009. Methods A sample mortality surveillance system was designed for Vietnam, comprising 192 communes in 16 provinces, accounting for approximately 3% of the Vietnamese population. Deaths were identified from commune level data sources, and followed up by verbal autopsy (VA based ascertainment of cause of death. Age-standardised mortality rates from RTIs were computed. VA questionnaires were analysed in depth to derive descriptive characteristics of RTI deaths in the sample. Results The age-standardized mortality rates from RTIs were 33.5 and 8.5 per 100,000 for males and females respectively. Majority of deaths were males (79%. Seventy three percent of all deaths were aged from 15 to 49 years and 58% were motorcycle users. As high as 80% of deaths occurred on the day of injury, 42% occurred prior to arrival at hospital, and a further 29% occurred on-site. Direct causes of death were identified for 446 deaths (42% with head injuries being the most common cause attributable to road traffic injuries overall (79% and to motorcycle crashes in particular (78%. Conclusion The VA method can provide a useful data source to analyse RTI mortality. The observed considerable mortality from head injuries among motorcycle users highlights the need to evaluate current practice and effectiveness of motorcycle helmet use in Vietnam. The high number of

  8. Affine stochastic mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schrager, D.F.

    2006-01-01

    We propose a new model for stochastic mortality. The model is based on the literature on affine term structure models. It satisfies three important requirements for application in practice: analytical tractibility, clear interpretation of the factors and compatibility with financial option pricing

  9. Mortality and GH deficiency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stochholm, Kirstine; Gravholt, Claus Højbjerg; Laursen, Torben

    2007-01-01

    into childhood onset (CO) and adult onset (AO), discriminated by an age cutoff below or above 18 years at onset of GHD. METHOD: Data on death were identified in national registries. Sex- and cause-specific mortalities were identified in CO and AO GHD when compared with controls. RESULTS: Mortality was increased......OBJECTIVE: To estimate the mortality in Denmark in patients suffering from GH deficiency (GHD). DESIGN: Mortality was analyzed in 1794 GHD patients and 8014 controls matched on age and gender. All records in GHD patients were studied and additional morbidity noted. Patients were divided...... in CO and AO GHD in both genders, when compared with controls. The hazard ratio (HR) for CO males was 8.3 (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.5-15.1) and for females 9.4 (CI 4.6-19.4). For AO males, HR was 1.9 (CI 1.7-2.2) and for females 3.4 (CI 2.9-4.0). We found a significantly higher HR in AO females...

  10. Caesarean section and mortality

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hawkins JL, Gibbs CP, Orleans M, et al. Obstetric anesthesia work force survey, versus 1992. Anesthesiology. 1981;1997(87):135–43. 2. Bert CJ, Atrash HK, Koonin KM, et al. Pregnacy related mortality in the. United States, 1987–1990. Obstet Gynecol. 1996;88:161–7. Received: 10-08-2015 Accepted: 14-08-2015.

  11. Stillbirth and Infant Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nøhr, Ellen Aagaard

    2012-01-01

    mechanisms behind these associations remain largely unknown. Although maternal obesity is associated with a wide range of complications in the mother and neonate that may impair fetal and infant survival, the increased risk of stillbirth and infant mortality is virtually unchanged when accounting...

  12. Sex differentials in mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1970-06-01

    The questions leing considered are whether a higher female than male mortality rate exists in Ceylon, India, and Pakistan, and whether this sex differential can account for the observed high male sex ratios. There is a choice between explaining the recorded masculinity of the Indian population by assuming that the subordinate position of women caused their omission from the census or that it caused their unrecorded death in childhood. The 1951 census report of India states that there is a traditional fondness for male issues in most parts of the country and a corresponding dislike for female children. However, a life table for India applied to the 1951 census gave a higher average female age at death 34.7 years as opposed to 33.5 years for male. Other estimates for India and Pakistan for the period 1951-1961 give 37.8 years for life expectancy for males and 36.98 for females. In 1953 the female death rate in Ceylon was over 80% higher than that of the males in the most reproductive ages, 20-29. In 1963 the female excess mortality at the same ages was still 25%, and in the age group 30-34 almost a 1/3 higher. In India the female death rate at ages 15-44 was 38% higher than that of the males in the 1958-1959 survey and as much as 174% higher in the Khanna rural survey, 1956-1960. In Pakistan a Population growth Estimate experiment conducted during 1962-1965 on a national probability sample has shown that in the ages 15-44 the female death rate was 75% higher than that of the males. High maternal mortality was the major reason. In addition, female mortality among young children over age 1 year was 24% higher in 1965 and 1963. There was little difference between the rates of mortality of the 2 sexes at age 45 and above. Recent trends in Ceylon show considerable improvement in maternal mortality which has reduced by 22% the ratio of female to male mortality at age 15-44. Also the ratio at ages 1-9 fell by 8%. to .1 of a year for every calendar year to 1980.

  13. STORMVEX: The Storm Peak Lab Cloud Property Validation Experiment Science and Operations Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mace, J; Matrosov, S; Shupe, M; Lawson, P; Hallar, G; McCubbin, I; Marchand, R; Orr, B; Coulter, R; Sedlacek, A; Avallone, L; Long, C

    2010-09-29

    During the Storm Peak Lab Cloud Property Validation Experiment (STORMVEX), a substantial correlative data set of remote sensing observations and direct in situ measurements from fixed and airborne platforms will be created in a winter season, mountainous environment. This will be accomplished by combining mountaintop observations at Storm Peak Laboratory and the airborne National Science Foundation-supported Colorado Airborne Multi-Phase Cloud Study campaign with collocated measurements from the second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2). We describe in this document the operational plans and motivating science for this experiment, which includes deployment of AMF2 to Steamboat Springs, Colorado. The intensive STORMVEX field phase will begin nominally on 1 November 2010 and extend to approximately early April 2011.

  14. Is precipitation a predictor of mortality in Bangladesh? A multi-stratified analysis in a South Asian monsoon climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkart, Katrin; Kinney, Patrick

    2016-05-15

    While numerous studies have assessed the association between temperature and mortality in various locations, few have addressed the relationship between precipitation and mortality. Given the high amounts of rainfall in many tropical monsoon areas and the often seasonally pronounced differences, there might be a potentially strong impact on health outcomes and death. In this study, we investigated the association between precipitation and daily death counts in Bangladesh from 2003 to 2007 using regression models with a quasipoisson distribution adjusting for long-term time and seasonal trends, day of the month, age and perceived temperature. Effects were assessed for all ages, the elderly and by gender. During the dry season a sharp increase in death risk was found at very high precipitation amounts which are most likely to be cyclone-related. This cyclone effect was most pronounced for females at the immediate day with an increase of 18.7% (3.8-35.6%) in non-external cause mortality per mm precipitation above 5mm. At longer lags we found a negative association between precipitation and mortality indicating some kind of dry effect which was more pronounced for the elderly with a mortality increase of 4.4% (2.6-6.2%) per mm decrease in precipitation. During the rainy season, we observed a protective effect of rainfall which was strongest during periods of seasonally high equivalent temperatures with a decrease in mortality of 4.0% (2.3-5.6%) per mm increase in precipitation on the immediate day. The observed associations between precipitation and mortality differed by season, age and gender. Generally, a strong short-term increase in mortality was associated with cyclonic activity during the dry season, while ongoing low rainfall seemed to have an adverse impact at higher lags. During the rainy season, precipitation seemed to mitigate heat effects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Characteristic of 120 degree C thermoluminescence peak of iceland spar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Xinwei; Han Jia

    2006-01-01

    The basic characteristic of 120 degree C thermoluminescence peak of iceland spar was studied. The experimental result indicates the longevity of 120 degree C thermoluminescence peak of iceland spar is about 2 h under 30 degree C. The thermoluminescence peak moves to the high temperature when the heating speed increasing. The intensity of 120 degree C thermoluminescence peak of iceland spar is directly proportional to radiation dose under 15 Gy. (authors)

  16. Mortality following Stroke, the Weekend Effect and Related Factors: Record Linkage Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen E Roberts

    Full Text Available Increased mortality following hospitalisation for stroke has been reported from many but not all studies that have investigated a 'weekend effect' for stroke. However, it is not known whether the weekend effect is affected by factors including hospital size, season and patient distance from hospital.To assess changes over time in mortality following hospitalisation for stroke and how any increased mortality for admissions on weekends is related to factors including the size of the hospital, seasonal factors and distance from hospital.A population study using person linked inpatient, mortality and primary care data for stroke from 2004 to 2012. The outcome measures were, firstly, mortality at seven days and secondly, mortality at 30 days and one year.Overall mortality for 37 888 people hospitalised following stroke was 11.6% at seven days, 21.4% at 30 days and 37.7% at one year. Mortality at seven and 30 days fell significantly by 1.7% and 3.1% per annum respectively from 2004 to 2012. When compared with week days, mortality at seven days was increased significantly by 19% for admissions on weekends, although the admission rate was 21% lower on weekends. Although not significant, there were indications of increased mortality at seven days for weekend admissions during winter months (31%, in community (81% rather than large hospitals (8% and for patients resident furthest from hospital (32% for distances of >20 kilometres. The weekend effect was significantly increased (by 39% for strokes of 'unspecified' subtype.Mortality following stroke has fallen over time. Mortality was increased for admissions at weekends, when compared with normal week days, but may be influenced by a higher stroke severity threshold for admission on weekends. Other than for unspecified strokes, we found no significant variation in the weekend effect for hospital size, season and distance from hospital.

  17. Risk assessment for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality due to air pollution and synoptic meteorology in 10 Canadian cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanos, Jennifer K; Hebbern, Christopher; Cakmak, Sabit

    2014-02-01

    Synoptic weather and ambient air quality synergistically influence human health. We report the relative risk of mortality from all non-accidental, respiratory-, and cardiovascular-related causes, associated with exposure to four air pollutants, by weather type and season, in 10 major Canadian cities for 1981 through 1999. We conducted this multi-city time-series study using Poisson generalized linear models stratified by season and each of six distinctive synoptic weather types. Statistically significant relationships of mortality due to short-term exposure to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, and ozone were found, with significant modifications of risk by weather type, season, and mortality cause. In total, 61% of the respiratory-related mortality relative risk estimates were significantly higher than for cardiovascular-related mortality. The combined effect of weather and air pollution is greatest when tropical-type weather is present in the spring or summer. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Assessing peak aerobic capacity in Dutch law enforcement officers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wittink, Harriet; Takken, Tim; de Groot, Janke; Reneman, Michiel; Peters, Roelof; Vanhees, Luc

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: To cross-validate the existing peak rate of oxygen consumption (VO2peak) prediction equations in Dutch law enforcement officers and to determine whether these prediction equations can be used to predict VO2peak for groups and in a single individual. A further objective was to report

  19. Determination of the upper limit of a peak area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helene, O.

    1990-03-01

    This paper reports the procedure to extract an upper limit of a peak area in a multichannel spectrum. This procedure takes into account the finite shape of the peak and the uncertanties in the background and in the expected position of the peak. (author) [pt

  20. PEAK TRACKING WITH A NEURAL NETWORK FOR SPECTRAL RECOGNITION

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    COENEGRACHT, PMJ; METTING, HJ; VANLOO, EM; SNOEIJER, GJ; DOORNBOS, DA

    1993-01-01

    A peak tracking method based on a simulated feed-forward neural network with back-propagation is presented. The network uses the normalized UV spectra and peak areas measured in one chromatogram for peak recognition. It suffices to train the network with only one set of spectra recorded in one

  1. Assessing peak aerobic capacity in Dutch law enforcement officers.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wittink, H.; Takken, T.; Groot, J.F. de; Reneman, M.; Peters, R.; Vanhees, L.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: To cross-validate the existing peak rate of oxygen consumption (VO2peak) prediction equations in Dutch law enforcement officers and to determine whether these prediction equations can be used to predict VO2peak for groups and in a single individual. A further objective was to report

  2. 7 CFR 457.163 - Nursery peak inventory endorsement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Nursery peak inventory endorsement. 457.163 Section... CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COMMON CROP INSURANCE REGULATIONS § 457.163 Nursery peak inventory endorsement. Nursery Crop Insurance Peak Inventory Endorsement This endorsement is not continuous and must be...

  3. Bayesian approach for peak detection in two-dimensional chromatography

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vivó-Truyols, G.

    2012-01-01

    A new method for peak detection in two-dimensional chromatography is presented. In a first step, the method starts with a conventional one-dimensional peak detection algorithm to detect modulated peaks. In a second step, a sophisticated algorithm is constructed to decide which of the individual

  4. Determination of the upper limit of a peak area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helene, O.

    1991-01-01

    This article reports the procedure to extract an upper limit of a peak area in a multichannel spectrum. This procedure takes into account the finite shape of the peak and the uncertainties both in the background and in the expected position of the peak. (orig.)

  5. Assessment of end-use electricity consumption and peak demand by Townsville's housing stock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Zhengen; Paevere, Phillip; Grozev, George; Egan, Stephen; Anticev, Julia

    2013-01-01

    We have developed a comprehensive model to estimate annual end-use electricity consumption and peak demand of housing stock, considering occupants' use of air conditioning systems and major appliances. The model was applied to analyse private dwellings in Townsville, Australia's largest tropical city. For the financial year (FY) 2010–11 the predicted results agreed with the actual electricity consumption with an error less than 10% for cooling thermostat settings at the standard setting temperature of 26.5 °C and at 1.0 °C higher than the standard setting. The greatest difference in monthly electricity consumption in the summer season between the model and the actual data decreased from 21% to 2% when the thermostat setting was changed from 26.5 °C to 27.5 °C. Our findings also showed that installation of solar panels in Townville houses could reduce electricity demand from the grid and would have a minor impact on the yearly peak demand. A key new feature of the model is that it can be used to predict probability distribution of energy demand considering (a) that appliances may be used randomly and (b) the way people use thermostats. The peak demand for the FY estimated from the probability distribution tracked the actual peak demand at 97% confidence level. - Highlights: • We developed a model to estimate housing stock energy consumption and peak demand. • Appliances used randomly and thermostat settings for space cooling were considered. • On-site installation of solar panels was also considered. • Its' results agree well with the actual electricity consumption and peak demand. • It shows the model could provide the probability distribution of electricity demand

  6. Empirical model for the electron density peak height disturbance in response to solar wind conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanch, E.; Altadill, D.

    2009-04-01

    Geomagnetic storms disturb the quiet behaviour of the ionosphere, its electron density and the electron density peak height, hmF2. Many works have been done to predict the variations of the electron density but few efforts have been dedicated to predict the variations the hmF2 under disturbed helio-geomagnetic conditions. We present the results of the analyses of the F2 layer peak height disturbances occurred during intense geomagnetic storms for one solar cycle. The results systematically show a significant peak height increase about 2 hours after the beginning of the main phase of the geomagnetic storm, independently of both the local time position of the station at the onset of the storm and the intensity of the storm. An additional uplift is observed in the post sunset sector. The duration of the uplift and the height increase are dependent of the intensity of the geomagnetic storm, the season and the local time position of the station at the onset of the storm. An empirical model has been developed to predict the electron density peak height disturbances in response to solar wind conditions and local time which can be used for nowcasting and forecasting the hmF2 disturbances for the middle latitude ionosphere. This being an important output for EURIPOS project operational purposes.

  7. Global Seasonality of Rotavirus Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Manish M.; Pitzer, Virginia; Alonso, Wladimir J.; Vera, David; Lopman, Ben; Tate, Jacqueline; Viboud, Cecile; Parashar, Umesh D.

    2012-01-01

    Background A substantial number of surveillance studies have documented rotavirus prevalence among children admitted for dehydrating diarrhea. We sought to establish global seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease before widespread vaccine introduction. Methods We reviewed studies of rotavirus detection in children with diarrhea published since 1995. We assessed potential relationships between seasonal prevalence and locality by plotting the average monthly proportion of diarrhea cases positive for rotavirus according to geography, country development, and latitude. We used linear regression to identify variables that were potentially associated with the seasonal intensity of rotavirus. Results Among a total of 99 studies representing all six geographical regions of the world, patterns of year-round disease were more evident in low- and low-middle income countries compared with upper-middle and high income countries where disease was more likely to be seasonal. The level of country development was a stronger predictor of strength of seasonality (P=0.001) than geographical location or climate. However, the observation of distinctly different seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease in some countries with similar geographical location, climate and level of development indicate that a single unifying explanation for variation in seasonality of rotavirus disease is unlikely. Conclusion While no unifying explanation emerged for varying rotavirus seasonality globally, the country income level was somewhat more predictive of the likelihood of having seasonal disease than other factors. Future evaluation of the effect of rotavirus vaccination on seasonal patterns of disease in different settings may help understand factors that drive the global seasonality of rotavirus disease. PMID:23190782

  8. Seasonality of alcohol-related phenomena in Estonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silm, Siiri; Ahas, Rein

    2005-03-01

    We studied alcohol consumption and its consequences as a seasonal phenomenon in Estonia and analysed the social and environmental factors that may cause its seasonal rhythm. There are two important questions when researching the seasonality of human activities: (1) whether it is caused by natural or social factors, and (2) whether the impact of the factors is direct or indirect. Often the seasonality of social phenomena is caused by social factors, but the triggering mechanisms are related to environmental factors like temperature, precipitation, and radiation via the circannual calendar. The indicators of alcohol consumption in the current paper are grouped as: (1) pre-consumption phenomena, i.e. production, tax and excise, sales (beer, wine and vodka are analysed separately), and (2) post-consumption phenomena, i.e. alcohol-related crime and traffic accidents and the number of people detained in lockups and admitted to alcohol treatment clinics. In addition, seasonal variability in the amount of alcohol advertising has been studied, and a survey has been carried out among 87 students of Tartu University. The analysis shows that different phenomena related to alcohol have a clear seasonal rhythm in Estonia. The peak period of phenomena related to beer is in the summer, from June to August and the low point is during the first months of the year. Beer consumption correlates well with air temperature. The consumption of vodka increases sharply at the end of the year and in June; the production of vodka does not have a significant correlation with negative temperatures. The consumption of wine increases during summer and in December. The consequences of alcohol consumption, expressed as the rate of traffic accidents or the frequency of medical treatment, also show seasonal variability. Seasonal variability of alcohol consumption in Estonia is influenced by natural factors (temperature, humidity, etc.) and by social factors (celebrations, vacations, etc.). However

  9. Peak-by-peak correction of Ge(Li) gamma-ray spectra for photopeaks from background

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cutshall, N.H.; Larsen, I.L.

    1980-01-01

    Background photopeaks can interfere with accurate measurement of low levels of radionuclides by gamma-ray spectrometry. A flowchart for peak-by-peak correction of sample spectra to produce accurate results is presented. (orig.)

  10. Peak-by-peak correction of Ge(Li) gamma-ray spectra for photopeaks from background

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cutshall, N H; Larsen, I L [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)

    1980-12-01

    Background photopeaks can interfere with accurate measurement of low levels of radionuclides by gamma-ray spectrometry. A flowchart for peak-by-peak correction of sample spectra to produce accurate results is presented.

  11. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  12. Low birthweight and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bakketeig, Leiv S.; Jacobsen, Geir; Skjærven, Rolv

    2006-01-01

    . The analysis considered 7 803 of these births, as 8 were excluded due to insufficient information. 30% of these second order LBW children had an older sibling who was also LBW. Early neonatal mortality of a “repeat” LBW birth was about 13% lower than among “non-repeat” LBW births (p..., the infant mortality was significantly higher among non-repeat LBW births (78.4 vs 60.8 per 1000, RR 1.30, CI 1.06, 1.56). Both after 1 and 5 minutes a significantly greater proportion of LBW repeat births had Apgar scores of 7 or above. Repeat second order LBW births weighed on average 68 grams more than...... non-repeat LBW births (pvs 2...

  13. Regional inequalities in mortality.

    OpenAIRE

    Illsley, R; Le Grand, J

    1993-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVE--To examine the hypothesis of sustained and persistent inequalities in health between British regions and to ask how far they are a consequence of using standardised mortality ratios as the tool of measurement. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS--Data are regional, age specific death rates at seven points in time from 1931 to 1987-89 for the British regions, reconstructed to make them comparable with the 1981 regional definitions. Log variance is used to measure inequality; regi...

  14. Mortality in necrotizing fasciitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waseem, A.R.; Samad, A.

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the mortality rate in patients presenting with Necrotizing Fasciitis. This prospective study was conducted at ward 26, JPMC Karachi over a period of two years from March 2001 to Feb 2003. All patients above the age of 12 years diagnosed to be having Necrotizing Fasciitis and admitted through the Accident and emergency department were included in this study. After resuscitation, the patients underwent the emergency exploration and aggressive surgical debridement. Post-operatively, the patients were managed in isolated section of the ward. The patients requiring grafting were referred to plastic surgery unit. The patients were followed up in outpatients department for about two years. Over all, 25 male and 5 female patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in this study. The common clinical manifestations include redness, swelling, discharging abscess, pain, fever, skin necrosis and foul smelling discharge etc. The most common predisposing factor was Diabetes mellitus whereas the most commonly involved site was perineum. All patients underwent aggressive and extensive surgical debridements. The common additional procedures included Skin grafting, Secondary suturing, Cystostomy and Orchidectomy. Bacteroides and E. coli were the main micro-organisms isolated in this study. Bacteroides was the most common microorganism isolated among the eight patients who died. Necrotizing Fasciitis is a potentially life threatening emergency condition and carries the mortality rate of about 26.6%. The major contributing factors to increase the mortality missed initially diagnosed, old age, diabetes mellitus truncal involvement and late presentation. Anorectal involvement of disease carry worse prognosis. Hyperbaric oxygen therapy and proper use of unprocessed honey reduced the mortality rate. (author)

  15. Automatic Peak Selection by a Benjamini-Hochberg-Based Algorithm

    KAUST Repository

    Abbas, Ahmed; Kong, Xin-Bing; Liu, Zhi; Jing, Bing-Yi; Gao, Xin

    2013-01-01

    A common issue in bioinformatics is that computational methods often generate a large number of predictions sorted according to certain confidence scores. A key problem is then determining how many predictions must be selected to include most of the true predictions while maintaining reasonably high precision. In nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)-based protein structure determination, for instance, computational peak picking methods are becoming more and more common, although expert-knowledge remains the method of choice to determine how many peaks among thousands of candidate peaks should be taken into consideration to capture the true peaks. Here, we propose a Benjamini-Hochberg (B-H)-based approach that automatically selects the number of peaks. We formulate the peak selection problem as a multiple testing problem. Given a candidate peak list sorted by either volumes or intensities, we first convert the peaks into p-values and then apply the B-H-based algorithm to automatically select the number of peaks. The proposed approach is tested on the state-of-the-art peak picking methods, including WaVPeak [1] and PICKY [2]. Compared with the traditional fixed number-based approach, our approach returns significantly more true peaks. For instance, by combining WaVPeak or PICKY with the proposed method, the missing peak rates are on average reduced by 20% and 26%, respectively, in a benchmark set of 32 spectra extracted from eight proteins. The consensus of the B-H-selected peaks from both WaVPeak and PICKY achieves 88% recall and 83% precision, which significantly outperforms each individual method and the consensus method without using the B-H algorithm. The proposed method can be used as a standard procedure for any peak picking method and straightforwardly applied to some other prediction selection problems in bioinformatics. The source code, documentation and example data of the proposed method is available at http://sfb.kaust.edu.sa/pages/software.aspx. © 2013

  16. Automatic Peak Selection by a Benjamini-Hochberg-Based Algorithm

    KAUST Repository

    Abbas, Ahmed

    2013-01-07

    A common issue in bioinformatics is that computational methods often generate a large number of predictions sorted according to certain confidence scores. A key problem is then determining how many predictions must be selected to include most of the true predictions while maintaining reasonably high precision. In nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)-based protein structure determination, for instance, computational peak picking methods are becoming more and more common, although expert-knowledge remains the method of choice to determine how many peaks among thousands of candidate peaks should be taken into consideration to capture the true peaks. Here, we propose a Benjamini-Hochberg (B-H)-based approach that automatically selects the number of peaks. We formulate the peak selection problem as a multiple testing problem. Given a candidate peak list sorted by either volumes or intensities, we first convert the peaks into p-values and then apply the B-H-based algorithm to automatically select the number of peaks. The proposed approach is tested on the state-of-the-art peak picking methods, including WaVPeak [1] and PICKY [2]. Compared with the traditional fixed number-based approach, our approach returns significantly more true peaks. For instance, by combining WaVPeak or PICKY with the proposed method, the missing peak rates are on average reduced by 20% and 26%, respectively, in a benchmark set of 32 spectra extracted from eight proteins. The consensus of the B-H-selected peaks from both WaVPeak and PICKY achieves 88% recall and 83% precision, which significantly outperforms each individual method and the consensus method without using the B-H algorithm. The proposed method can be used as a standard procedure for any peak picking method and straightforwardly applied to some other prediction selection problems in bioinformatics. The source code, documentation and example data of the proposed method is available at http://sfb.kaust.edu.sa/pages/software.aspx. © 2013

  17. Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station: Phase I Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Winifred C.; Merceret, Francis J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This report describes the results of the ANU's (Applied Meteorology Unit) Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task for peak winds. The peak wind speeds are an important forecast element for the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle programs. The Keith Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group indicate that peak winds are challenging to forecast. The Applied Meteorology Unit was tasked to develop tools that aid in short-range forecasts of peak winds at tower sites of operational interest. A 7 year record of wind tower data was used in the analysis. Hourly and directional climatologies by tower and month were developed to determine the seasonal behavior of the average and peak winds. In all climatologies, the average and peak wind speeds were highly variable in time. This indicated that the development of a peak wind forecasting tool would be difficult. Probability density functions (PDF) of peak wind speed were calculated to determine the distribution of peak speed with average speed. These provide forecasters with a means of determining the probability of meeting or exceeding a certain peak wind given an observed or forecast average speed. The climatologies and PDFs provide tools with which to make peak wind forecasts that are critical to safe operations.

  18. Seasonal trends in sleep-disordered breathing: evidence from Internet search engine query data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingram, David G; Matthews, Camilla K; Plante, David T

    2015-03-01

    The primary aim of the current study was to test the hypothesis that there is a seasonal component to snoring and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) through the use of Google search engine query data. Internet search engine query data were retrieved from Google Trends from January 2006 to December 2012. Monthly normalized search volume was obtained over that 7-year period in the USA and Australia for the following search terms: "snoring" and "sleep apnea". Seasonal effects were investigated by fitting cosinor regression models. In addition, the search terms "snoring children" and "sleep apnea children" were evaluated to examine seasonal effects in pediatric populations. Statistically significant seasonal effects were found using cosinor analysis in both USA and Australia for "snoring" (p search term in Australia (p = 0.13). Seasonal patterns for "snoring children" and "sleep apnea children" were observed in the USA (p = 0.002 and p search volume to examine these search terms in Australia. All searches peaked in the winter or early spring in both countries, with the magnitude of seasonal effect ranging from 5 to 50 %. Our findings indicate that there are significant seasonal trends for both snoring and sleep apnea internet search engine queries, with a peak in the winter and early spring. Further research is indicated to determine the mechanisms underlying these findings, whether they have clinical impact, and if they are associated with other comorbid medical conditions that have similar patterns of seasonal exacerbation.

  19. Size-dependent mortality rate profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roa-Ureta, Ruben H

    2016-08-07

    Knowledge of mortality rates is crucial to the understanding of population dynamics in populations of free-living fish and invertebrates in marine and freshwater environments, and consequently to sustainable resource management. There is a well developed theory of population dynamics based on age distributions that allow direct estimation of mortality rates. However, for most cases the aging of individuals is difficult or age distributions are not available for other reasons. The body size distribution is a widely available alternative although the theory underlying the formation of its shape is more complicated than in the case of age distributions. A solid theory of the time evolution of a population structured by any physiological variable has been developed in 1960s and 1970s by adapting the Hamilton-Jacobi formulation of classical mechanics, and equations to estimate the body size-distributed mortality profile have been derived for simple cases. Here I extend those results with regards to the size-distributed mortality profile to complex cases of non-stationary populations, individuals growing according to a generalised growth model and seasonally patterned recruitment pulses. I apply resulting methods to two cases in the marine environment, a benthic crustacean population that was growing during the period of observation and whose individuals grow with negative acceleration, and a sea urchin coastal population that is undergoing a stable cycle of two equilibrium points in population size whose individuals grow with varying acceleration that switches sign along the size range. The extension is very general and substantially widens the applicability of the theory. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Research on Double Price Regulations and Peak Shaving Reserve Mechanism in Coal-Electricity Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongjun Peng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The game models were used to study the mechanism of coal-electricity price conflict under conditions of double price regulations of coal and electricity. Based on this, the peak shaving reserve mechanism was designed to probe into the countermeasures against the coal-electricity price conflicts. The study revealed that in the boom seasons of coal demand, the initiatives of the coal enterprises to supply thermal coal and the electricity enterprises to order thermal coal are reduced under conditions of double price regulations. However, under the circumstances of coal price marketization, in the boom seasons of coal demand the thermal coal price may go up obviously, the initiatives of the coal enterprises to supply thermal coal are increased, and meanwhile the initiatives of the power enterprises to order thermal coal are decreased dramatically. The transportation capacity constraint of coal supply leads to the evident decrease of the initiatives of coal enterprises for the thermal coal supply. The mechanism of peak shaving reserve of thermal coal may not only reduce the price of coal market but also increase the enthusiasm of the power enterprises to order more thermal coal and the initiatives of the coal enterprises to supply more thermal coal.

  1. Mortality risk factors for calves entering a multi-location white veal farm in Ontario, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winder, Charlotte B; Kelton, David F; Duffield, Todd F

    2016-12-01

    Mortality in preweaned dairy-breed calves, whether they are replacement dairy heifers, veal animals, or dairy beef animals, represents both a welfare issue and a source of economic loss for the industries involved. Studies describing morbidity and mortality in veal calves have illustrated different management practices and requirements in terms of housing and nutrition around the world. Studies examining the rearing of replacement dairy heifers have shown that rates of morbidity and mortality can vary dramatically between farms, perhaps reflecting differences in management strategies. It has been over 2 decades since morbidity and mortality in veal calves in Ontario were described. The objective of this retrospective population cohort study was to describe mortality and determine whether on-arrival information could be used to predict mortality risk. Predictors could be used to both better classify and group calves on arrival and provide feedback to suppliers about the characteristics of the highest- and lowest-risk calves. We collected data from 10,910 calves entering 7 barns of a single white veal farm, all in Ontario, from January 1 to December 31, 2014. Calves were followed until death or marketing (typically 140 to 150 d). We developed logistic regression models to determine the effects of weight on arrival, season of arrival, supplier, sex, barn, and purchase price on the risk of total mortality, early mortality (0-21d after arrival), and late mortality (>21d after arrival). We identified significant associations between season, barn, supplier, weight, and total mortality risk, with lighter-weight calves arriving in winter being at increased risk. Early mortality was significantly associated with weight, season, barn, and supplier, and tended to be associated with standardized price; lighter-weight calves arriving in winter at lower prices were at increased risk. Late mortality was significantly associated with season of arrival, barn, and supplier. On

  2. Gamma-Ray Peak Integration: Accuracy and Precision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richard M. Lindstrom

    2000-01-01

    The accuracy of singlet gamma-ray peak areas obtained by a peak analysis program is immaterial. If the same algorithm is used for sample measurement as for calibration and if the peak shapes are similar, then biases in the integration method cancel. Reproducibility is the only important issue. Even the uncertainty of the areas computed by the program is trivial because the true standard uncertainty can be experimentally assessed by repeated measurements of the same source. Reproducible peak integration was important in a recent standard reference material certification task. The primary tool used for spectrum analysis was SUM, a National Institute of Standards and Technology interactive program to sum peaks and subtract a linear background, using the same channels to integrate all 20 spectra. For comparison, this work examines other peak integration programs. Unlike some published comparisons of peak performance in which synthetic spectra were used, this experiment used spectra collected for a real (though exacting) analytical project, analyzed by conventional software used in routine ways. Because both components of the 559- to 564-keV doublet are from 76 As, they were integrated together with SUM. The other programs, however, deconvoluted the peaks. A sensitive test of the fitting algorithm is the ratio of reported peak areas. In almost all the cases, this ratio was much more variable than expected from the reported uncertainties reported by the program. Other comparisons to be reported indicate that peak integration is still an imperfect tool in the analysis of gamma-ray spectra

  3. Relationships between electroencephalographic spectral peaks across frequency bands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sacha Jennifer Van Albada

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The degree to which electroenencephalographic (EEG spectral peaks are independent, and the relationships between their frequencies have been debated. A novel fitting method was used to determine peak parameters in the range 2–35 Hz from a large sample of eyes-closed spectra, and their interrelationships were investigated. Findings were compared with a mean-field model of thalamocortical activity, which predicts near-harmonic relationships between peaks. The subject set consisted of 1424 healthy subjects from the Brain Resource International Database. Peaks in the theta range occurred on average near half the alpha peak frequency, while peaks in the beta range tended to occur near twice and three times the alpha peak frequency on an individual-subject basis. Moreover, for the majority of subjects, alpha peak frequencies were significantly positively correlated with frequencies of peaks in the theta and low and high beta ranges. Such a harmonic progression agrees semiquantitatively with theoretical predictions from the mean-field model. These findings indicate a common or analogous source for different rhythms, and help to define appropriate individual frequency bands for peak identification.

  4. Relationships between Electroencephalographic Spectral Peaks Across Frequency Bands

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Albada, S. J.; Robinson, P. A.

    2013-01-01

    The degree to which electroencephalographic spectral peaks are independent, and the relationships between their frequencies have been debated. A novel fitting method was used to determine peak parameters in the range 2–35 Hz from a large sample of eyes-closed spectra, and their interrelationships were investigated. Findings were compared with a mean-field model of thalamocortical activity, which predicts near-harmonic relationships between peaks. The subject set consisted of 1424 healthy subjects from the Brain Resource International Database. Peaks in the theta range occurred on average near half the alpha peak frequency, while peaks in the beta range tended to occur near twice and three times the alpha peak frequency on an individual-subject basis. Moreover, for the majority of subjects, alpha peak frequencies were significantly positively correlated with frequencies of peaks in the theta and low and high beta ranges. Such a harmonic progression agrees semiquantitatively with theoretical predictions from the mean-field model. These findings indicate a common or analogous source for different rhythms, and help to define appropriate individual frequency bands for peak identification. PMID:23483663

  5. Particle in cell simulation of peaking switch for breakdown evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Umbarkar, Sachin B.; Bindu, S.; Mangalvedekar, H.A.; Saxena, A.; Singh, N.M., E-mail: sachin.b.umbarkar@gmail.com [Department of Electric Engineering, Veermata Jijabai Technological Institute, Mumbai (India); Sharma, Archana; Saroj, P.C.; Mittal, K.C. [Accelerator Pulse Power Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India)

    2014-07-01

    Marx generator connected to peaking capacitor and peaking switch can generate Ultra-Wideband (UWB) radiation. A new peaking switch is designed for converting the existing nanosecond Marx generator to a UWB source. The paper explains the particle in cell (PIC) simulation for this peaking switch, using MAGIC 3D software. This peaking switch electrode is made up of copper tungsten material and is fixed inside the hermitically sealed derlin material. The switch can withstand a gas pressure up to 13.5 kg/cm{sup 2}. The lower electrode of the switch is connected to the last stage of the Marx generator. Initially Marx generator (without peaking stage) in air; gives the output pulse with peak amplitude of 113.75 kV and pulse rise time of 25 ns. Thus, we design a new peaking switch to improve the rise time of output pulse and to pressurize this peaking switch separately (i.e. Marx and peaking switch is at different pressure). The PIC simulation gives the particle charge density, current density, E counter plot, emitted electron current, and particle energy along the axis of gap between electrodes. The charge injection and electric field dependence on ionic dissociation phenomenon are briefly analyzed using this simulation. The model is simulated with different gases (N{sub 2}, H{sub 2}, and Air) under different pressure (2 kg/cm{sup 2}, 5 kg/cm{sup 2}, 10 kg/cm{sup 2}). (author)

  6. QRS peak detection for heart rate monitoring on Android smartphone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pambudi Utomo, Trio; Nuryani, Nuryani; Darmanto

    2017-11-01

    In this study, Android smartphone is used for heart rate monitoring and displaying electrocardiogram (ECG) graph. Heart rate determination is based on QRS peak detection. Two methods are studied to detect the QRS complex peak; they are Peak Threshold and Peak Filter. The acquisition of ECG data is utilized by AD8232 module from Analog Devices, three electrodes, and Microcontroller Arduino UNO R3. To record the ECG data from a patient, three electrodes are attached to particular body’s surface of a patient. Patient’s heart activity which is recorded by AD8232 module is decoded by Arduino UNO R3 into analog data. Then, the analog data is converted into a voltage value (mV) and is processed to get the QRS complex peak. Heart rate value is calculated by Microcontroller Arduino UNO R3 uses the QRS complex peak. Voltage, heart rate, and the QRS complex peak are sent to Android smartphone by Bluetooth HC-05. ECG data is displayed as the graph by Android smartphone. To evaluate the performance of QRS complex peak detection method, three parameters are used; they are positive predictive, accuracy and sensitivity. Positive predictive, accuracy, and sensitivity of Peak Threshold method is 92.39%, 70.30%, 74.62% and for Peak Filter method are 98.38%, 82.47%, 83.61%, respectively.

  7. Seasonal changes in plant-water relations influence patterns of leaf display in Miombo woodlands: evidence of water conservative strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinya, Royd; Malhi, Yadvinder; Brown, Nick D; Fisher, Joshua B; Brodribb, Timothy; Aragão, Luiz E O C

    2018-06-15

    Water availability has frequently been linked to seasonal leaf display in seasonally dry ecosystems, but there have been few ecohydrological investigations of this link. Miombo woodland is a dominant seasonally dry tropical forest ecosystem type in southern Africa; however, there are few data on the relationship between seasonal dynamics in plant-water relations and patterns of leaf display for Miombo woodland. Here we investigate this relationship among nine key Miombo woodland tree species differing in drought tolerance ability and leaf phenology. Results of this study showed that seasonal patterns of leaf phenology varied significantly with seasonal changes in stem water relations among the nine species. Leaf shedding coincided with the attainment of seasonal minimum stem water potential. Leaf flush occurred following xylem rehydration at the peak of the dry season suggesting that endogenous plant factors play a pivotal role in seasonal leaf display in this forest type. Drought-tolerant deciduous species suffered significantly higher seasonal losses in xylem hydraulic conductivity than the drought-intolerant semi-evergreen tree species (P water stress in seasonally dry tropical forests selects for water conservative traits that protect the vulnerable xylem transport system. Therefore, seasonal rhythms in xylem transport dictate patterns of leaf display in seasonally dry tropical forests.

  8. Seasonal patterns of periphyton nitrogen fixation in calcareous wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, X.; Inglett, P.

    2011-12-01

    Periphyton mats are an ecologically important component of the Everglades ecosystem and plays various vital ecological functions. However, nitrogen fixation of periphyton, has received little attention throughout much of the Everglades system. The objective of this study was to characterize the seasonal pattern of periphyton N2 fixation in the Hole-in-the-Donut (HID) of Florida Everglades, where farmed marl prairie wetlands have been restored through complete soil removal (CSR) to reduce nutrient levels. Two restored areas (i.e., cleared in 2000 and 2003) and a reference (natural and unfarmed) marl prairie wetland sites were selected in the HID. Seven times of sampling were performed across the wet and dry season during the 2010 and 2011. The annual fixed nitrogen was approximately 0.4gN m-2 yr-1 in the restored sites which was higher in the reference site (~0.2gN m-2 yr-1). All the three sites showed similar seasonal patterns of N2 fixation that is higher values were observed in the wet season; but the peak value was one month later in reference sits (i.e., September) comparing to the restored areas (i.e., July). The peak of periphyton AR rates in the 2000- and 2003-restored areas appeared in July (i.e., wet season) within the range of 20-79 nmols g-1dw h-1 and 31-53nmols g-1dw h-1, respectively. In contrast, the peak of reference site was observed in September with the range of 2-5 nmols g-1dw h-1. Stable N isotopic ratios (i.e., δ15N) also varied with time but didn't show consistent seasonal pattern as nitrogen fixation. N2 fixation positively correlated with periphyton total phosphorus (TP) and negatively correlated with total nitrogen and phosphorus molar ratios (TN:TP), indicating that N2 fixation would be a indicator of nutrient limitation. In general, δ15N was negatively correlated with nitrogenase activity but the correlation became weakened in the wet season, especially in the flooded July and September, which would be explained by other environmental

  9. Mortality in acromegaly: a metaanalysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekkers, O. M.; Biermasz, N. R.; Pereira, A. M.; Romijn, J. A.; Vandenbroucke, J. P.

    2008-01-01

    Several studies have assessed mortality risk in patients treated for acromegaly. All studies found a mortality that was higher than expected for the general population, but most of these increases were not statistically significant. For this reason, it is not formally established whether mortality

  10. A study of the short-term associations between hospital admissions and mortality from heart failure and meteorological variables in Hong Kong: Weather and heart failure in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goggins, William B; Chan, Emily Yy

    2017-02-01

    Previous research has shown winter peaks for both hospitalizations and mortality from HF, but few studies have examined the association between meteorological parameters and HF. Daily HF admissions to Hong Kong public hospitals, which cover about 83% of total admissions, and daily HF deaths, were obtained for 2002-2011. Generalized additive (Poisson) regression models were used with daily HF admissions/mortality as outcomes and daily mean temperature, humidity, and wind speed as predictors, while controlling for pollutant levels, time trend, season, day of the week, and holiday. Non-linear distributed lag functions were used for predictors to allow for non-linear and delayed associations. Lower mean daily temperatures were strongly associated with increased HF admissions and mortality with a cumulative (to 23days) relative risk (RR) (95% confidence interval (CI)) for HF admissions of 2.63 (2.43, 2.84) for an 11°C. vs. a 25°Cday, and cumulative (42days) RR (95% CI)=3.13 (1.90, 5.16) for HF mortality. The association with cold weather was stronger among older age groups and for new hospitalizations compared to recurrent ones, while presence of co-morbidities did not modify the association. Both high and low relative humidity were modestly associated with more admissions. Both HF admissions and mortality in Hong Kong were very strongly associated with cold temperatures. Reducing exposure to cold temperatures among those at risk for HF has the potential to reduce hospitalizations and mortality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Seasonal Variations in Color Preference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schloss, Karen B; Nelson, Rolf; Parker, Laura; Heck, Isobel A; Palmer, Stephen E

    2017-08-01

    We investigated how color preferences vary according to season and whether those changes could be explained by the ecological valence theory (EVT). To do so, we assessed the same participants' preferences for the same colors during fall, winter, spring, and summer in the northeastern United States, where there are large seasonal changes in environmental colors. Seasonal differences were most pronounced between fall and the other three seasons. Participants liked fall-associated dark-warm colors-for example, dark-red, dark-orange (brown), dark-yellow (olive), and dark-chartreuse-more during fall than other seasons. The EVT could explain these changes with a modified version of Palmer and Schloss' (2010) weighted affective valence estimate (WAVE) procedure that added an activation term to the WAVE equation. The results indicate that color preferences change according to season, as color-associated objects become more/less activated in the observer. These seasonal changes in color preferences could not be characterized by overall shifts in weights along cone-contrast axes. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  12. Using movement behaviour to define biological seasons for woodland caribou

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyler D. Rudolph

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial mammals are strongly influenced by seasonal changes in environmental conditions. Studies of animal space use behaviour are therefore inherently seasonal in nature. We propose an individual-based quantitative method for identifying seasonal shifts in caribou movement behaviour and we demonstrate its use in determining the onset of the winter, spring dispersal, and calving seasons. Using pooled data for the population we demonstrate an alternate approach using polynomial regression with mixed effects. We then compare individual onset dates with population-based estimates and those adopted by expert consensus for our study area. Distributions of individual-based onset dates were normally distributed with prominent modes; however, there was considerable variation in individual onset times. Population-based estimates were closer to the peaks of individual estimates than were expert-based estimates, which fell outside the onetailed 90% and 95% sample quantiles of individually-fitted distributions for spring and winter, respectively. Both expertand population-based estimates were later for winter and earlier for both spring and calving than were individual-based estimates. We discuss the potential consequences of neglecting to corroborate conventionally used dates with observed seasonal trends in movement behaviour. In closing, we recommend researchers adopt an individual-based quantitative approach and a variable temporal window for data set extraction.

  13. Seasonality of dizziness and vertigo in a tropical region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Alcione Botelho; Almeida, Leonardo Alves Ferreira; Pereira, Nayara Gorette; Menezes, Patrícia Andrade Freitas de; Felipe, Lilian; Volpe, Fernando Madalena

    2015-06-01

    Vertigo and dizziness are among the most common medical complaints in the emergency room, and are associated with a considerable personal and health care burden. Scarce and conflicting reports indicate those symptoms may present a seasonal distribution. This study aimed at investigating the existence of a seasonal distribution of vertigo/dizziness in a tropical region, and the correlations of these findings with climatic variables. The charts of all patients consecutively admitted between 2009 and 2012 in the emergency room of a Brazilian general hospital were reviewed. A total of 4920 cases containing these terms were sorted from a sample of 276,076 emergency records. Seasonality was assessed using Cosinor Analysis. Pearson's correlations were performed between the incidence of consultations, considering separately dizziness and vertigo and each of the predictor climatic variables of that index month. Significant seasonal patterns were observed for dizziness and vertigo in the emergency room. Vertigo was more frequent in late winter-spring, negatively correlating to humidity (r = -0.374; p = 0.013) and rainfall (r = -0.334; p = 0.020). Dizziness peaked on summer months, and positively correlated to average temperatures (r = 0.520; p vertigo indicate possible distinct underlying mechanisms of how seasons may influence the occurrence of those symptoms.

  14. Large variations in diurnal and seasonal patterns of sap flux among Aleppo pine trees in semi-arid forest reflect tree-scale hydraulic adjustments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preisler, Yakir; Tatarinov, Fyodor; Rohatyn, Shani; Rotenberg, Eyal; Grünzweig, José M.; Klein, Tamir; Yakir, Dan

    2015-04-01

    Adjustments and adaptations of trees to drought vary across different biomes, species and habitats, with important implications for tree mortality and forest dieback associated with global climate change. The aim of this study was to investigate possible links between the patterns of variations in water flux dynamics and drought resistance in Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) trees in a semi-arid stand (Yatir forest, Israel). We measured sap flow (SF) and variations in stem diameter, complemented with short-term campaigns of leaf-scale measurements of water vapour and CO2 gas exchange, branch water potential and hydraulic conductivity, as well as eddy flux measurements of evapotranspiration (ET) from a permanent flux tower at the site. SF rates were well synchronized with ET, reaching maximum rates during midday in all trees during the rainy season (Dec-Apr). However, during the dry season (May-Nov), the daily trend in the rates of SF greatly varied among trees, allowing classification into three tree classes: 1) trees with SF maximum rate constantly occurring in mid-day (12:00-13:00); 2)trees showing a shift to an early morning SF peak (04:00-06:00); and 3) trees shifting their daily SF peak to the evening (16:00-18:00). This classification did not change during the four years study period, between 2010 and 2014. Checking for correlation of tree parameters as DBH, tree height, crown size, and competition indices with rates of SF, indicated that timing of maximum SF in summer was mainly related to tree size (DBH), when large trees tended to have a later SF maximum. Dendrometer measurements indicated that large trees (high DBH) had maximum daily diameter in the morning during summer and winter, while small trees typically had maximum daily diameter during midday and afternoon in winter and summer, respectively. Leaf-scale transpiration (T) measurements showed typical morning peak in all trees, and another peak in the afternoon in large trees only. Different diurnal

  15. The shifting nature of vegetation controls on peak snowpack with varying slope and aspect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biederman, J. A.; Harpold, A. A.; Broxton, P. D.; Brooks, P. D.

    2012-12-01

    The controls on peak seasonal snowpack are known to shift between forested and open environments as well as with slope and aspect. Peak snowpack is predicted well by interception models under uniformly dense canopy, while topography, wind and radiation are strong predictors in open areas. However, many basins have complex mosaics of forest canopy and small gaps, where snowpack controls involve complex interactions among climate, topography and forest structure. In this presentation we use a new fully distributed tree-scale model to investigate vegetation controls on snowpack for a range of slope and aspect, and we evaluate the energy balance in forest canopy and gap environments. The model is informed by airborne LiDAR and ground-based observations of climate, vegetation and snowpack. It represents interception, snow distribution by wind, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and radiative fluxes above and below the canopy at a grid scale of 1 m square on an hourly time step. First, the model is minimally calibrated using continuous records of snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE). Next, the model is evaluated using distributed observations at peak accumulation. Finally, the domain is synthetically altered to introduce ranges of slope and aspect. Northerly aspects accumulate greater peak SWE than southerly aspects (e.g. 275 mm vs. 250 mm at a slope of 28 %) but show lower spatial variability (e. g. CV = 0.14 vs. CV = 0.17 at slope of 28 %). On northerly aspects, most of the snowpack remains shaded by vegetation, whereas on southerly aspects the northern portions of gaps and southern forest edges receive direct insolation during late winter. This difference in net radiation makes peak SWE in forest gaps and adjacent forest edges more sensitive to topography than SWE in areas under dense canopy. Tree-scale modeling of snow dynamics over synthetic terrain offers extensive possibilities to test interactions among vegetation and topographic controls.

  16. Phenological synchrony and seasonality of understory Rubiaceae in the Atlantic Forest, Bahia, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heitor Scarpati Liuth

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In tropical forests with low seasonality, climatic variables generally exert a weak influence on the phenology of species. The seasonality of phenophases in closely related taxa can be controlled by phylogenetic constraints in such environments. In this study, our aim was to describe the phenology of Rubiaceae in the understory of the Atlantic Forest in the southern part of Bahia, Brazil, as well as to evaluate the seasonality and phenological synchrony of this family. For two years, we observed 90 individuals belonging to 13 species, in an area of 0.2 ha. Leaf flushing and leaf fall did not demonstrate any seasonality, were continuous for most species and correlated with few of the climatic variables. Flowering was seasonal and correlated positively with all climatic variables. Species exhibited seasonality for this phenophase with high flowering overlap among species of Psychotria, indicating an aggregated pattern for this genus. Fruiting was also seasonal and correlated with all the climatic variables, unripe fruit development peaking at the beginning of the season during which humidity is highest and fruit ripening peaking in the season during which humidity is slightly lower. The vegetative and flowering patterns observed in the study area are commonly seen in other tropical forests. The reproductive seasonality of this family can facilitate the attraction of biotic agents, as postulated in the facilitation hypothesis. Our results demonstrate that climatic variables influenced the phenological patterns observed here, although the high reproductive seasonality and interspecific synchrony, especially in congeneric species, raises the possibility that phylogenetic proximity plays a role in the pattern of the family Rubiaceae.

  17. The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Pandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications? Methods We estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the UK, and the USA for people older than 44 years of age. We modeled variation with age, and standardized estimates to allow direct comparison across age groups and countries. Attack rate data for four pandemics were assembled. Results For nearly all seasons, an exponential model characterized mortality data extremely well. For seasons of emergence and a variable number of seasons following, however, a subpopulation above a threshold age invariably enjoyed reduced mortality. 'Immune escape', a stepwise increase in mortality among the oldest elderly, was observed a number of seasons after both the A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) pandemics. The number of seasons from emergence to escape varied by country. For the latter pandemic, mortality rates in four countries increased for younger age groups but only in the season following that of emergence. Adaptation to both emergent viruses was apparent as a progressive decrease in mortality rates, which, with two exceptions, was seen only in younger age groups. Pandemic attack rate variation with age was estimated to be similar across four pandemics with very different mortality impact. Conclusions In all influenza pandemics of the 20th century, emergent viruses resembled those that had circulated previously within the lifespan of then-living people. Such individuals were relatively immune to the emergent strain, but this immunity waned with mutation of the emergent virus. An immune subpopulation complicates and may invalidate vaccine trials. Pandemic influenza does not 'shift' mortality to younger age groups; rather, the mortality level is reset by the virulence

  18. Estimation of the peak factor based on watershed characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gauthier, Jean; Nolin, Simon; Ruest, Benoit [BPR Inc., Quebec, (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Hydraulic modeling and dam structure design require the river flood flow as a primary input. For a given flood event, the ratio of peak flow over mean daily flow defines the peak factor. The peak factor value is dependent on the watershed and location along the river. The main goal of this study consisted in finding a relationship between watershed characteristics and this peak factor. Regression analyses were carried out on 53 natural watersheds located in the southern part of the province of Quebec using data from the Centre d'expertise hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ). The watershed characteristics included in the analyses were the watershed area, the maximum flow length, the mean slope, the lake proportion and the mean elevation. The results showed that watershed area and length are the major parameters influencing the peak factor. Nine natural watersheds were also used to test the use of a multivariable model in order to determine the peak factor for ungauged watersheds.

  19. Evaluation of peak power prediction equations in male basketball players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Michael J; Lyons, Mark; Nevill, Alan M

    2008-07-01

    This study compared peak power estimated using 4 commonly used regression equations with actual peak power derived from force platform data in a group of adolescent basketball players. Twenty-five elite junior male basketball players (age, 16.5 +/- 0.5 years; mass, 74.2 +/- 11.8 kg; height, 181.8 +/- 8.1 cm) volunteered to participate in the study. Actual peak power was determined using a countermovement vertical jump on a force platform. Estimated peak power was determined using countermovement jump height and body mass. All 4 prediction equations were significantly related to actual peak power (all p jump prediction equations, 12% for the Canavan and Vescovi equation, and 6% for the Sayers countermovement jump equation. In all cases peak power was underestimated.

  20. Seasonal variation of seismic ambient noise level at King Sejong Station, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, W.; Sheen, D.; Seo, K.; Yun, S.

    2009-12-01

    The generation of the secondary- or double-frequency (DF) microseisms with dominant frequencies between 0.1 and 0.5 Hz has been explained by nonlinear second-order pressure perturbations on the ocean bottom due to the interference of two ocean waves of equal wavelengths traveling in opposite directions. Korea Polar Research Institute (KOPRI) has been operating a broadband seismic station (KSJ1) at King George Island (KGI), Antarctica, since 2001. Examining the ambient seismic noise level for the period from 2006 to 2008 at KSJ1, we found a significant seasonal variation in the frequency range 0.1-0.5 Hz. Correlation of the DF peaks with significant ocean wave height and peak wave period models indicates that the oceanic infragravity waves in the Drake Passage is a possible source to excite the DF microseisms at KGI. Location of King Sejong Station, Antarctica Seasonal variations of DF peak, significant wave height, and peak wave period

  1. The association between air pollution and mortality in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Tawatsupa, Benjawan; Punnasiri, Kornwipa; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Williams, Gail

    2014-07-01

    Bayesian statistical inference with a case-crossover design was used to examine the effects of air pollutants {Particulate matter pollutants had significant short-term impacts on non-accidental mortality. An increase of 10 μg/m(3) in PM10, 10 ppb in O₃, 1 ppb in SO₂ were associated with a 0.40% (95% posterior interval (PI): 0.22, 0.59%), 0.78% (95% PI: 0.20, 1.35%) and 0.34% (95% PI: 0.17, 0.50%) increase of non-accidental mortality, respectively. O₃ air pollution is significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality, while PM10 is significantly related to respiratory mortality. In general, the effects of all pollutants on all mortality types were higher in summer and winter than those in the rainy season. This study highlights the effects of exposure to air pollution on mortality risks in Thailand. Our findings support the Thailand government in aiming to reduce high levels of air pollution.

  2. Peak experiences of psilocybin users and non-users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummins, Christina; Lyke, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    Maslow (1970) defined peak experiences as the most wonderful experiences of a person's life, which may include a sense of awe, well-being, or transcendence. Furthermore, recent research has suggested that psilocybin can produce experiences subjectively rated as uniquely meaningful and significant (Griffiths et al. 2006). It is therefore possible that psilocybin may facilitate or change the nature of peak experiences in users compared to non-users. This study was designed to compare the peak experiences of psilocybin users and non-users, to evaluate the frequency of peak experiences while under the influence of psilocybin, and to assess the perceived degree of alteration of consciousness during these experiences. Participants were recruited through convenience and snowball sampling from undergraduate classes and at a musical event. Participants were divided into three groups, those who reported a peak experience while under the influence of psilocybin (psilocybin peak experience: PPE), participants who had used psilocybin but reported their peak experiences did not occur while they were under the influence of psilocybin (non-psilocybin peak experience: NPPE), and participants who had never used psilocybin (non-user: NU). A total of 101 participants were asked to think about their peak experiences and complete a measure evaluating the degree of alteration of consciousness during that experience. Results indicated that 47% of psilocybin users reported their peak experience occurred while using psilocybin. In addition, there were significant differences among the three groups on all dimensions of alteration of consciousness. Future research is necessary to identify factors that influence the peak experiences of psilocybin users in naturalistic settings and contribute to the different characteristics of peak experiences of psilocybin users and non-users.

  3. Extragalactic Peaked-spectrum Radio Sources at Low Frequencies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callingham, J. R.; Gaensler, B. M.; Sadler, E. M.; Lenc, E. [Sydney Institute for Astronomy (SIfA), School of Physics, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia); Ekers, R. D.; Bell, M. E. [CSIRO Astronomy and Space Science (CASS), Marsfield, NSW 2122 (Australia); Line, J. L. B.; Hancock, P. J.; Kapińska, A. D.; McKinley, B.; Procopio, P. [ARC Centre of Excellence for All-Sky Astrophysics (CAASTRO) (Australia); Hurley-Walker, N.; Tingay, S. J.; Franzen, T. M. O.; Morgan, J. [International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research (ICRAR), Curtin University, Bentley, WA 6102 (Australia); Dwarakanath, K. S. [Raman Research Institute (RRI), Bangalore 560080 (India); For, B.-Q. [International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research (ICRAR), The University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009 (Australia); Hindson, L.; Johnston-Hollitt, M. [School of Chemical and Physical Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington 6140 (New Zealand); Offringa, A. R., E-mail: joseph.callingham@sydney.edu.au [Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy (ASTRON), Dwingeloo (Netherlands); and others

    2017-02-20

    We present a sample of 1483 sources that display spectral peaks between 72 MHz and 1.4 GHz, selected from the GaLactic and Extragalactic All-sky Murchison Widefield Array (GLEAM) survey. The GLEAM survey is the widest fractional bandwidth all-sky survey to date, ideal for identifying peaked-spectrum sources at low radio frequencies. Our peaked-spectrum sources are the low-frequency analogs of gigahertz-peaked spectrum (GPS) and compact-steep spectrum (CSS) sources, which have been hypothesized to be the precursors to massive radio galaxies. Our sample more than doubles the number of known peaked-spectrum candidates, and 95% of our sample have a newly characterized spectral peak. We highlight that some GPS sources peaking above 5 GHz have had multiple epochs of nuclear activity, and we demonstrate the possibility of identifying high-redshift ( z > 2) galaxies via steep optically thin spectral indices and low observed peak frequencies. The distribution of the optically thick spectral indices of our sample is consistent with past GPS/CSS samples but with a large dispersion, suggesting that the spectral peak is a product of an inhomogeneous environment that is individualistic. We find no dependence of observed peak frequency with redshift, consistent with the peaked-spectrum sample comprising both local CSS sources and high-redshift GPS sources. The 5 GHz luminosity distribution lacks the brightest GPS and CSS sources of previous samples, implying that a convolution of source evolution and redshift influences the type of peaked-spectrum sources identified below 1 GHz. Finally, we discuss sources with optically thick spectral indices that exceed the synchrotron self-absorption limit.

  4. The sharp peak-flat trough pattern and critical speculation

    OpenAIRE

    Roehner, B. M.; Sornette, D.

    1998-01-01

    We find empirically a characteristic sharp peak-flat trough pattern in a large set of commodity prices. We argue that the sharp peak structure reflects an endogenous inter-market organization, and that peaks may be seen as local ``singularities'' resulting from imitation and herding. These findings impose a novel stringent constraint on the construction of models. Intermittent amplification is not sufficient and nonlinear effects seem necessary to account for the observations.

  5. Gamma-ray peak shapes from cadmium zinc telluride detectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Namboodiri, M.N.; Lavietes, A.D.; McQuaid, J.H.

    1996-09-01

    We report the results of a study of the peak shapes in the gamma spectra measured using several 5 x 5 x 5 mm{sup 3} cadmium zinc telluride (CZT) detectors. A simple parameterization involving a Gaussian and an exponential low energy tail describes the peak shapes sell. We present the variation of the parameters with gamma energy. This type of information is very useful in the analysis of complex gamma spectra consisting of many peaks.

  6. Statistics of peaks in cosmological nonlinear density fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suginohara, Tatsushi; Suto, Yasushi.

    1990-06-01

    Distribution of the high-density peaks in the universe is examined using N-body simulations. Nonlinear evolution of the underlying density field significantly changes the statistical properties of the peaks, compared with the analytic results valid for the random Gaussian field. In particular, the abundances and correlations of the initial density peaks are discussed in the context of biased galaxy formation theory. (author)

  7. Environmental impacts of public transport. Why peak-period travellers cause a greater environmental burden than off-peak travellers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rietveld, P.

    2002-01-01

    Given the difference between peak and off-peak occupancy rates in public transport, emissions per traveller kilometre are lower in the peak than in the off-peak period, whereas the opposite pattern is observed for cars. It is argued that it is much more fruitful to analyse environmental effects in marginal terms. This calls for a careful analysis of capacity management policies of public transport suppliers that are facing increased demand during both peak and off-peak periods. A detailed analysis of capacity management by the Netherlands Railways (NS) revealed that off-peak capacity supply is mainly dictated by the demand levels during the peak period. The analysis included the effects of increased frequency and increased vehicle size on environmental impacts, while environmental economies of vehicle size were also taken into account. The main conclusion is that the marginal environmental burden during the peak hours is much higher than is usually thought, whereas it is almost zero during the off-peak period. This implies a pattern that is the precise opposite of the average environmental burden. Thus, an analysis of environmental effects of public transport based on average performance would yield misleading conclusions [nl

  8. Spatiotemporal phenological changes in fall foliage peak coloration in deciduous forest and the responses to climatic variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Y.; Wilson, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Plant phenology studies typically focus on the beginning and end of the growing season in temperate forests. We know too little about fall foliage peak coloration, which is a bioindicator of plant response in autumn to environmental changes, an important visual cue in fall associated with animal activities, and a key element in fall foliage ecotourism. Spatiotemporal changes in timing of fall foliage peak coloration of temperate forests and the associated environmental controls are not well understood. In this study, we examined multiple color indices to estimate Land Surface Phenology (LSP) of fall foliage peak coloration of deciduous forest in the northeastern USA using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily imagery from 2000 to 2015. We used long term phenology ground observations to validate our estimated LSP, and found that Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) and Plant Senescence Reflectance Index (PSRI) were good metrics to estimate peak and end of leaf coloration period of deciduous forest. During the past 16 years, the length of period with peak fall foliage color of deciduous forest at southern New England and northern Appalachian forests regions became longer (0.3 7.7 days), mainly driven by earlier peak coloration. Northern New England, southern Appalachian forests and Ozark and Ouachita mountains areas had shorter period (‒0.2 ‒9.2 days) mainly due to earlier end of leaf coloration. Changes in peak and end of leaf coloration not only were associated with changing temperature in spring and fall, but also to drought and heat in summer, and heavy precipitation in both summer and fall. The associations between leaf peak coloration phenology and climatic variations were not consistent among ecoregions. Our findings suggested divergent change patterns in fall foliage peak coloration phenology in deciduous forests, and improved our understanding in the environmental control on timing of fall foliage color change.

  9. Cool seasons are related to poor prognosis in patients with infective endocarditis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Su-Jung; Chao, Tze-Fan; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Hsu, Tsui-Lieh; Yu, Wen-Chung; Leu, Hsin-Bang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Chen, Shih-Ann

    2012-09-01

    Many cardiac diseases demonstrate seasonal variations in the incidence and mortality. This study was designed to investigate whether the mortality of infective endocarditis (IE) was higher in cool seasons and to evaluate the effects of cool climate for IE. We enrolled 100 IE patients with vegetations in our hospital. The temperatures of the IE episodes were defined as the monthly average temperatures of the admission days. The average temperatures in the cool (fall/winter) and warm seasons (spring/summer) were 19.2°C and 27.6°C, respectively. In addition, patients admitted with the diagnosis of IE were identified from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) and the in-hospital mortality rates in cool and warm seasons were compared to validate the findings derived from the data of our hospital. The mortality rate for IE was significantly higher in fall/winter than in spring/summer which presents consistently in the patient population of our hospital (32.7% versus 12.5%, p = 0.017) and from NHIRD (10.4% versus 4.6%, p = 0.019). IE episodes which occurred during cool seasons presented with a higher rate of heart failure (44.2% versus 22.9%, p = 0.025) and D-dimer level (5.5 ± 3.8 versus 2.4 ± 1.8 μg/ml, p = 0.017) at admission than that of warm seasons. These results may reflect the impact of temperatures during the pre-hospitalized period on the disease process. In the multivariate analysis, Staphylococcal infection, left ventricular hypertrophy, left ventricular systolic dysfunction and temperature were the independent predictors of mortalities in IE patients.

  10. The European Market for Seasonal Gas Storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahan, A.

    2006-02-01

    European demand for gas will grow in the years to come. Simultaneously, gas production in Europe will decrease and imported gas will be needed to replace indigenous production. Gas demand is not constant during the year. There are variations in demand on different timescales ranging from seasonal to hourly. Variations in demand are characterised by two main parameters: working volume and deliverability. Working volume - the amount of gas that can be supplied above the baseload production volume during a long (cold) period- is primarily needed to cope with the summer-winter pattern of gas consumption. Most of the summer-winter pattern comes from the temperature sensitive gas consumption by households and service industries. Gas usage by industry and the power sector are more evenly spread throughout the year and need less working volume. Deliverability - the amount of gas per hour that can be generated on a (very) cold day above the baseload capacity - is the ability to produce large volumes during short periods, e.g. for extremely cold days, or during peak periods during a day. In this paper we argue that a large amount of additional working volume will be required over the coming years. First, flexible European production will be replaced by long-distance import gas, and second, the gas market is expected to grow further. Todays market appears focus mainly on cavems for storage volume. Cavems have little working volume but are ideal for trading purposes. Consequently, Europe may be facing a deficit in working volume, i.e. the ability to cope with seasonal changes in demand. This paper aims to widen the discussion of this matter and give rise to this concern by setting out a broad analysis, exploring the market drivers for seasonal storage and identifying the public interest issues for this market. Chapter 2 gives an overview of demand for and supply characteristics of gas flexibility. Chapter 3 describes the role of gas storage facilities in the gas market

  11. The dislocation-internal friction peak γ in tantalum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baur, J.; Benoit, W.; Schultz, H.

    1989-01-01

    Torsion-pendulum measurements were carried out on high-purity single crystal specimens of tantalum, having extremely low oxygen contents ( 2 peak, which appears close to γ is small traces of oxygen are presents. The γ 2 peak was formerly explained as a ''dislocation-enhanced Snoek peak''. The γ peak recovers at the peak temperature, whereas the γ 2 peak is more stable. On the basis of their results, and making use of earlier investigations of Rodrian and Schultz, the authors suggest that γ 2 is modified γ relaxation, related to screw-dislocation segments, stabilized by oxygen-decorated kinks. The stability of the γ 2 peak allows an accurate determination of the activation energy, found to be 1.00 +- 0.03 eV. This value is distinctly lower than the activation energy of the oxygen Snoek effect (1.10 eV) and is related here to the mechanism of ''kink-pair formation'' in screw dislocations, as the original γ peak. The numerical value is compatible with recent values derived from flow-stress measurements. The peak γ 2 shows increasing stability with increasing oxygen content. This is explained by single- and multi-decorated kinks

  12. Evaluation of peak-fitting software for gamma spectrum analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zahn, Guilherme S.; Genezini, Frederico A.; Moralles, Mauricio

    2009-01-01

    In all applications of gamma-ray spectroscopy, one of the most important and delicate parts of the data analysis is the fitting of the gamma-ray spectra, where information as the number of counts, the position of the centroid and the width, for instance, are associated with each peak of each spectrum. There's a huge choice of computer programs that perform this type of analysis, and the most commonly used in routine work are the ones that automatically locate and fit the peaks; this fit can be made in several different ways - the most common ways are to fit a Gaussian function to each peak or simply to integrate the area under the peak, but some software go far beyond and include several small corrections to the simple Gaussian peak function, in order to compensate for secondary effects. In this work several gamma-ray spectroscopy software are compared in the task of finding and fitting the gamma-ray peaks in spectra taken with standard sources of 137 Cs, 60 Co, 133 Ba and 152 Eu. The results show that all of the automatic software can be properly used in the task of finding and fitting peaks, with the exception of GammaVision; also, it was possible to verify that the automatic peak-fitting software did perform as well as - and sometimes even better than - a manual peak-fitting software. (author)

  13. Individual vision and peak distribution in collective actions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Peng

    2017-06-01

    People make decisions on whether they should participate as participants or not as free riders in collective actions with heterogeneous visions. Besides of the utility heterogeneity and cost heterogeneity, this work includes and investigates the effect of vision heterogeneity by constructing a decision model, i.e. the revised peak model of participants. In this model, potential participants make decisions under the joint influence of utility, cost, and vision heterogeneities. The outcomes of simulations indicate that vision heterogeneity reduces the values of peaks, and the relative variance of peaks is stable. Under normal distributions of vision heterogeneity and other factors, the peaks of participants are normally distributed as well. Therefore, it is necessary to predict distribution traits of peaks based on distribution traits of related factors such as vision heterogeneity and so on. We predict the distribution of peaks with parameters of both mean and standard deviation, which provides the confident intervals and robust predictions of peaks. Besides, we validate the peak model of via the Yuyuan Incident, a real case in China (2014), and the model works well in explaining the dynamics and predicting the peak of real case.

  14. Bayesian approach for peak detection in two-dimensional chromatography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vivó-Truyols, Gabriel

    2012-03-20

    A new method for peak detection in two-dimensional chromatography is presented. In a first step, the method starts with a conventional one-dimensional peak detection algorithm to detect modulated peaks. In a second step, a sophisticated algorithm is constructed to decide which of the individual one-dimensional peaks have been originated from the same compound and should then be arranged in a two-dimensional peak. The merging algorithm is based on Bayesian inference. The user sets prior information about certain parameters (e.g., second-dimension retention time variability, first-dimension band broadening, chromatographic noise). On the basis of these priors, the algorithm calculates the probability of myriads of peak arrangements (i.e., ways of merging one-dimensional peaks), finding which of them holds the highest value. Uncertainty in each parameter can be accounted by adapting conveniently its probability distribution function, which in turn may change the final decision of the most probable peak arrangement. It has been demonstrated that the Bayesian approach presented in this paper follows the chromatographers' intuition. The algorithm has been applied and tested with LC × LC and GC × GC data and takes around 1 min to process chromatograms with several thousands of peaks.

  15. Risk factors of neonatal mortality and child mortality in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maniruzzaman, Md; Suri, Harman S; Kumar, Nishith; Abedin, Md Menhazul; Rahman, Md Jahanur; El-Baz, Ayman; Bhoot, Makrand; Teji, Jagjit S; Suri, Jasjit S

    2018-06-01

    Child and neonatal mortality is a serious problem in Bangladesh. The main objective of this study was to determine the most significant socio-economic factors (covariates) between the years 2011 and 2014 that influences on neonatal and child mortality and to further suggest the plausible policy proposals. We modeled the neonatal and child mortality as categorical dependent variable (alive vs death of the child) while 16 covariates are used as independent variables using χ 2 statistic and multiple logistic regression (MLR) based on maximum likelihood estimate. Using the MLR, for neonatal mortality, diarrhea showed the highest positive coefficient (β = 1.130; P  economic conditions for neonatal mortality. For child mortality, birth order between 2-6 years and 7 and above years showed the highest positive coefficients (β = 1.042; P  economic conditions for child mortality. This study allows policy makers to make appropriate decisions to reduce neonatal and child mortality in Bangladesh. In 2014, mother's age and father's education were also still significant covariates for child mortality. This study allows policy makers to make appropriate decisions to reduce neonatal and child mortality in Bangladesh.

  16. Seasonal Allergies: Diagnosis, Treatment & Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this page please turn JavaScript on. Feature: Seasonal Allergies Diagnosis, Treatment & Research Past Issues / Spring 2015 Table of Contents Diagnosis Testing for Allergies Knowing exactly what you are allergic to can ...

  17. 2012 Swimming Season Fact Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    To help beachgoers make informed decisions about swimming at U.S. beaches, EPA annually publishes state-by-state data about beach closings and advisories for the previous year's swimming season. These fact sheets summarize that information by state.

  18. Mortality of Kalliapseudes schubartii in unvegetated soft bottoms of the estuarine region of the Lagoa dos Patos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fonseca Duane Barros

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Studies were carried iut on seasonal mortality by taking samples of Kalliapseudes schubartii (Crustacea: Tanaidacea for a year in the estuarine region of the Lagoa dos Patos (southern Brazil. Results demonstrated no significant difference in seasonal mortality rates, which suggest that populations of K. schubartii was heavily preyed on year round and that an assumption of a significantly higher mortality in summer/autumn than in spring/winter might not be held in unvegetated soft bottoms of the estuarine regions of the Lagoa dos Patos.

  19. Mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in San Luis Potosí, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comas‐García, Andreu; García‐Sepúlveda, Christian A.; Méndez‐de Lira, José J.; Aranda‐Romo, Saray; Hernández‐Salinas, Alba E.; Noyola, Daniel E.

    2010-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Comas‐García et al. (2011) Mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in San Luis Potosí, Mexico. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(2), 76–82. Background  Acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Starting in 2009, pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus has become one of the leading respiratory pathogens worldwide. However, the overall impact of this virus as a cause of mortality has not been clearly defined. Objectives  To determine the impact of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 on mortality in a Mexican population. Methods  We assessed the impact of pandemic influenza virus on mortality during the first and second outbreaks in San Luis Potosí, Mexico, and compared it to mortality associated with seasonal influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) during the previous winter seasons. Results  We estimated that, on average, 8·1% of all deaths that occurred during the 2003–2009 seasons were attributable to influenza and RSV. During the first pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 outbreak, there was an increase in mortality in persons 5–59 years of age, but not during the second outbreak (Fall of 2009). Overall, pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 outbreaks had similar effects on mortality to those associated with seasonal influenza virus epidemics. Conclusions  The impact of influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus on mortality during the first year of the pandemic was similar to that observed for seasonal influenza. The establishment of real‐time surveillance systems capable of integrating virological, morbidity, and mortality data may result in the timely identification of outbreaks so as to allow for the institution of appropriate control measures to reduce the impact of emerging pathogens on the population. PMID:21306570

  20. Retrospective analysis of trends and production factors associated with sow mortality on swine-breeding farms in USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koketsu, Y

    2000-09-01

    Of the 825 pig farms in USA that mailed in their electronic file containing production records, 604 farms were used to observe breeding-female mortality risk and related factors (herd size, lactation length, parity and season). Multiple regression was used to determine factors associated with annual mortality risk. Analyses of variance were used for comparisons of mortality risks among parity and season groups. Average annual mortality risks during the 1997 period was 5.68%. Average breeding-female inventories and average lactation length on USA farms were 733 and 18.3 days, respectively. Higher annual breeding-female mortality risk was associated with larger herd size, greater parity at farrowing and shorter lactation length (P500 females, mortality risk increases by 0.44%. Older parity was associated with higher mortality risks. Summer season was also associated with higher mortality risk. Using five-years' records on 270 farms, annual mortality risk in 1997 was higher than those of 1993 and 1994, while average breeding-female inventory increased and lactation length decreased. It is recommended that producers, especially in large herds, pay more attention to breeding females.

  1. When and where does mortality occur in migratory birds? Direct evidence from long-term satellite tracking of raptors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaassen, Raymond H G; Hake, Mikael; Strandberg, Roine; Koks, Ben J; Trierweiler, Christiane; Exo, Klaus-Michael; Bairlein, Franz; Alerstam, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Information about when and where animals die is important to understand population regulation. In migratory animals, mortality might occur not only during the stationary periods (e.g. breeding and wintering) but also during the migration seasons. However, the relative importance of population limiting factors during different periods of the year remains poorly understood, and previous studies mainly relied on indirect evidence. Here, we provide direct evidence about when and where migrants die by identifying cases of confirmed and probable deaths in three species of long-distance migratory raptors tracked by satellite telemetry. We show that mortality rate was about six times higher during migration seasons than during stationary periods. However, total mortality was surprisingly similar between periods, which can be explained by the fact that risky migration periods are shorter than safer stationary periods. Nevertheless, more than half of the annual mortality occurred during migration. We also found spatiotemporal patterns in mortality: spring mortality occurred mainly in Africa in association with the crossing of the Sahara desert, while most mortality during autumn took place in Europe. Our results strongly suggest that events during the migration seasons have an important impact on the population dynamics of long-distance migrants. We speculate that mortality during spring migration may account for short-term annual variation in survival and population sizes, while mortality during autumn migration may be more important for long-term population regulation (through density-dependent effects). © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

  2. Mortality displacement as a function of heat event strength in 7 US cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Michael V; Davis, Robert E; Hondula, David M

    2014-02-15

    Mortality rates increase immediately after periods of high air temperature. In the days and weeks after heat events, time series may exhibit mortality displacement-periods of lower than expected mortality. We examined all-cause mortality and meteorological data from 1980 to 2009 in the cities of Atlanta, Georgia; Boston, Massachusetts; Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Phoenix, Arizona; Seattle, Washington; and St. Louis, Missouri. We modeled baseline mortality using a generalized additive model. Heat waves were defined as periods of 3 or more consecutive days in which the apparent temperature exceeded a variable percentile. For each heat wave, we calculated the sum of excess and deficit mortality. Mortality displacement, which is the ratio of grand sum deficit to grand sum excess mortality, decreased as a function of event strength in all cities. Displacement was close to 1.00 for the weakest events. At the highest temperatures, displacement varied from 0.35 (95% confidence interval: 0.21, 0.55) to 0.75 (95% confidence interval: 0.54, 0.97). We found strong evidence of acclimatization across cities. Without consideration of displacement effects, the net impacts of heat-wave mortality are likely to be significant overestimations. A statistically significant positive relationship between the onset temperature of nondisplaced heat mortality and mean warm-season temperature (R(2) = 0.78, P < 0.01) suggests that heat mortality thresholds may be predictable across cities.

  3. Seasonal variation in internet keyword searches: a proxy assessment of sex mating behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markey, Patrick M; Markey, Charlotte N

    2013-05-01

    The current study investigated seasonal variation in internet searches regarding sex and mating behaviors. Harmonic analyses were used to examine the seasonal trends of Google keyword searches during the past 5 years for topics related to pornography, prostitution, and mate-seeking. Results indicated a consistent 6-month harmonic cycle with the peaks of keyword searches related to sex and mating behaviors occurring most frequently during winter and early summer. Such results compliment past research that has found similar seasonal trends of births, sexually transmitted infections, condom sales, and abortions.

  4. Assessing peak aerobic capacity in Dutch law enforcement officers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harriet Wittink

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To cross-validate the existing peak rate of oxygen consumption (VO2peak prediction equations in Dutch law enforcement officers and to determine whether these prediction equations can be used to predict VO2peak for groups and in a single individual. A further objective was to report normative absolute and relative VO2peak values of a sample of law enforcement officers in the Netherlands. Material and Methods: The peak rate of oxygen consumption (ml×kg–1×min–1 was measured using a maximal incremental bicycle test in 1530 subjects, including 1068 male and 461 female police officers. Validity of the prediction equations for groups was assessed by comparing predicted VO2peak with measured VO2peak using paired t-tests. For individual differences limits of agreement (LoA were calculated. Equations were considered valid for individuals when the difference between measured and predicted VO2peak did not exceed ±1 metabolic equivalent (MET in 95% of individuals. Results: None of the equations met the validity criterion of 95% of individuals having ±1 MET difference or less than the measured value. Limits of agreement (LoAs were large in all predictions. At the individual level, none of the equations were valid predictors of VO2peak (ml×kg–1×min–1. Normative values for Dutch law enforcement officers were presented. Conclusions: Substantial differences between measured and predicted VO2peak (ml×kg–1×min–1 were found. Most tested equations were invalid predictors of VO2peak at group level and all were invalid at individual levels.

  5. UV hazard on Italian Apennines under different shading and ground cover conditions during peak tourist seasons of the year.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grifoni, Daniele; Carreras, Giulia; Sabatini, Francesco; Zipoli, Gaetano

    2006-12-01

    In solar UV irradiance monitoring and forecasting services UV information is generally expressed in terms of its effect on erythema and referred to horizontal surface. In this work we define the UV radiative regime, in terms of biologically effective UV irradiance (UVBE) for skin and eye, under full sun and shaded conditions, over a mountainous tourist area of central Italy by means of two all-day measurements (summer and early spring) with different ground albedo (grass and snow cover respectively). UV irradiance was monitored on tilted surfaces (the most frequent for people standing and walking). Results show the significant contribution of ground albedo and sun position in determining the incident UVBE irradiance. On early spring days the UVBE irradiance measured on horizontal surface was much lower than on tilted ones; the opposite condition was observed in summer. The highest UVBE irradiance values, in particular conditions of sun elevation and ground cover, were reached in periods different from the summer both in full sun and shaded condition.

  6. The Gambia and Bangladesh: the seasons and diarrhoea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, M G

    1986-09-01

    Climactic factors in the Gambia and Bangladesh have an important impact on the incidence of diarrheal disease. Both countries share some common characteristics in climate, including a cool dry winter of 3 months followed by a hot dry spring and hot wet summers of 5-7 months in length. The main difference is in the amount of rainfall. The Gambia may have 20-30 inches of rain each year; Bangladesh usually has up to 4-5 times this amount. In the Gambia, drought is a recurring problem; floods is the problem in Bangladesh. A study in the Gambia found a close link between the time of the annual peak in diarrhea in young children and the summer rains. A 2nd peak of diarrhea in the winter also was significant and was shown to coincide with a short period of intense transmission of rotavirus. Of the enteric infections of childhood, the enterotoxigenic "Escherichia coli" (ETEC), that is those producing heat-stable toxin (ST) were found to be the most important etiological agents of diarrhea in both countries, with a peak during the rains. In rural Gambia, water is obtained almost exclusively from surface wells, 15-20 meters deep. It was found that, although this water was fecally contaminated throughout the year, levels of contamination increased by up to 100 times with 1-2 days of the start of the rains because excreta is washed into the wells. It also was clear that contaminated water and domestic environment contribute to contamination of children's food. The high level of contamination of food during the summer coincided with the time of high diarrhea prevalence. In Bangladesh it was shown that the incidence of ETEC diarrhea in infants was positively correlated with the frequency of consumption of weaning foods contaminated with fecal coliforms. The seasonal peak of ETEC diarrhea coincided with the time when food was most contaminated due to higher bacterial growth caused by high temperatures. Cholera is endemic in many areas of Bangladesh but not in the Gambia. Though

  7. Constraining the shape of the CMB: A peak-by-peak analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oedman, Carolina J.; Hobson, Michael P.; Lasenby, Anthony N.; Melchiorri, Alessandro

    2003-01-01

    The recent measurements of the power spectrum of cosmic microwave background anisotropies are consistent with the simplest inflationary scenario and big bang nucleosynthesis constraints. However, these results rely on the assumption of a class of models based on primordial adiabatic perturbations, cold dark matter and a cosmological constant. In this paper we investigate the need for deviations from the Λ-CDM scenario by first characterizing the spectrum using a phenomenological function in a 15 dimensional parameter space. Using a Monte Carlo Markov chain approach to Bayesian inference and a low curvature model template we then check for the presence of new physics and/or systematics in the CMB data. We find an almost perfect consistency between the phenomenological fits and the standard Λ-CDM models. The curvature of the secondary peaks is weakly constrained by the present data, but they are well located. The improved spectral resolution expected from future satellite experiments is warranted for a definitive test of the scenario

  8. Influenza vaccine coverage, influenza-associated morbidity and all-cause mortality in Catalonia (Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, M Pilar; Soldevila, Núria; Martínez, Anna; Carmona, Glòria; Batalla, Joan; Acosta, Lesly M; Domínguez, Angela

    2011-07-12

    The objective of this work was to study the behaviour of influenza with respect to morbidity and all-cause mortality in Catalonia, and their association with influenza vaccination coverage. The study was carried out over 13 influenza seasons, from epidemiological week 40 of 1994 to week 20 of 2007, and included confirmed cases of influenza and all-cause mortality. Two generalized linear models were fitted: influenza-associated morbidity was modelled by Poisson regression and all-cause mortality by negative binomial regression. The seasonal component was modelled with the periodic function formed by the sum of the sinus and cosines. Expected influenza mortality during periods of influenza virus circulation was estimated by Poisson regression and its confidence intervals using the Bootstrap approach. Vaccination coverage was associated with a reduction in influenza-associated morbidity (pcase of influenza-associated morbidity, an increase of 5% in vaccination coverage represented a reduction of 3% in the incidence rate of influenza. There was a positive association between influenza-associated morbidity and all-cause mortality. Excess mortality attributable to influenza epidemics was estimated as 34.4 (95% CI: 28.4-40.8) weekly deaths. In conclusion, all-cause mortality is a good indicator of influenza surveillance and vaccination coverage is associated with a reduction in influenza-associated morbidity but not with all-cause mortality. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Limitations of middle cerebral artery peak systolic velocity in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We present a case of a mother with severe pre-eclampsia at 32 weeks' gestation and non-immune fetal hydrops without obvious cause. Since the. MCA peak systolic velocity (PSV) was ... Limitations of middle cerebral artery peak systolic velocity .... [7] found MCA PSV of value in 9 women with chronic abruption, but in 5.

  10. Diffraction peaks in x-ray spectroscopy: Friend or foe?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tissot, R.G.; Goehner, R.P.

    1992-01-01

    Diffraction peaks can occur as unidentifiable peaks in the energy spectrum of an x-ray spectrometric analysis. Recently, there has been increased interest in oriented polycrystalline films and epitaxial films on single crystal substrates for electronic applications. Since these materials diffract x-rays more efficiently than randomly oriented polycrystalline materials, diffraction peaks are being observed more frequently in x-ray fluorescent spectra. In addition, micro x-ray spectrometric analysis utilizes a small, intense, collimated x-ray beam that can yield well defined diffraction peaks. In some cases these diffraction peaks can occur at the same position as elemental peaks. These diffraction peaks, although a possible problem in qualitative and quantitative elemental analysis, can give very useful information about the crystallographic structure and orientation of the material being analyzed. The observed diffraction peaks are dependent on the geometry of the x-ray spectrometer, the degree of collimation and the distribution of wavelengths (energies) originating from the x-ray tube and striking the sample

  11. Quality Assurance in the Determination of Overlapping Peak Areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, L.H.; Heydorn, K.

    1987-01-01

    The ability of different computer programs to yield accurate peak areas in statistical control in the case of partially overlapping photopeaks has been tested by the Analysis of Precision. A modified Covell method, two commercially available peak-fitting programs from Nuclear Data and Ortec, and ...

  12. Peak effect in surface resistance at microwave frequencies in Dy ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In the measurements at both frequencies the induced microwave current was always less than the critical current of the films. The reason for observation of this peak effect in these films has been explained in our earlier publication [5]. Comparing figures 1 and 2, it is observed that the peaks in sample S1 are broader and.

  13. Peak heart rate decreases with increasing severity of acute hypoxia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundby, C; Araoz, M; Van Hall, Gerrit

    2001-01-01

    , 459, and 404 mmHg) in a hypobaric chamber and while breathing 9% O(2) in N(2). These conditions were equivalent to altitudes of 3300, 4300, 5300, and 6300 m above sea level, respectively. At 4300 m, maximal exercise was also repeated after 4 and 8 h. Peak heart rate (HR) decreased from 191 (182......-202) (mean and range) at sea level to 189 (179-200), 182 (172-189), 175 (166-183), and 165 (162-169) in the acute hypoxic conditions. Peak HR did not decrease further after 4 and 8 h at 4300 m compared to the acute exposure at this altitude. Between barometric pressures of 518 and 355 mmHg (approximately...... 3300 and 6300 m), peak HR decreased linearly: peak HR(hypobaria) = peak HR(sea level) - 0.135 x [hypobaria(3100) - hypobaria (mmHg)]; or peak HR(altitude) = peak HR(sea level) - 0.15 x (altitude - 3100 m). This corresponds to approximately 1-beat x min(-1) reduction in peak HR for every 7-mmHg decrease...

  14. Determination of gaussian peaks in gamma spectra by iterative regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordemann, D.J.R.

    1987-05-01

    The parameters of the peaks in gamma-ray spectra are determined by a simple iterative regression method. For each peak, the parameters are associated with a gaussian curve (3 parameters) located above a linear continuum (2 parameters). This method may produces the complete result of the calculation of statistical uncertainties and an accuracy higher than others methods. (author) [pt

  15. Peak Expiratory Flow Rate In Cigarette Smokers | Ukoli | Highland ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: To compare lung function between smokers and non-smokers using Peak Expiratory Flow Rate (PEFR). Methods: This study examines the peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) of three hundred and forty cigarette smokers, age and sex-matched with PEFR of equal number of non-smokers. Results: The mean PEFR of ...

  16. Online junction temperature measurement using peak gate current

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, Nick; Munk-Nielsen, Stig; Iannuzzo, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    A new method for junction temperature measurement of MOS-gated power semiconductor switches is presented. The measurement method involves detecting the peak voltage over the external gate resistor of an IGBT or MOSFET during turn-on. This voltage is directly proportional to the peak gate current...

  17. Psychological Preparation for Peak Performance in Sports Competition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohuruogu, Ben; Jonathan, Ugwuanyi I.; Ikechukwu, Ugwu Jude

    2016-01-01

    This paper attempts to make an overview of various techniques, sport psychologist adopt in psychological preparation of athletes for peak performance. To attain peak performance in sports competitions, coaches and athletes should not base their prospect on physical training on sport skills alone rather should integrate both the mental and physical…

  18. Identification of peaks in multidimensional coincidence {gamma}-ray spectra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morhac, Miroslav E-mail: fyzimiro@savba.sk; Kliman, Jan; Matousek, Vladislav; Veselsky, Martin; Turzo, Ivan

    2000-03-21

    In the paper a new algorithm to find peaks in two, three and multidimensional spectra, measured in large multidetector {gamma}-ray arrays, is derived. Given the dimension m, the algorithm is selective to m-fold coincidence peaks. It is insensitive to intersections of lower-fold coincidences, hereinafter called ridges.

  19. Identification of peaks in multidimensional coincidence γ-ray spectra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morhac, Miroslav; Kliman, Jan; Matousek, Vladislav; Veselsky, Martin; Turzo, Ivan

    2000-01-01

    In the paper a new algorithm to find peaks in two, three and multidimensional spectra, measured in large multidetector γ-ray arrays, is derived. Given the dimension m, the algorithm is selective to m-fold coincidence peaks. It is insensitive to intersections of lower-fold coincidences, hereinafter called ridges

  20. Probabilistic peak detection for first-order chromatographic data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lopatka, M.; Vivó-Truyols, G.; Sjerps, M.J.

    2014-01-01

    We present a novel algorithm for probabilistic peak detection in first-order chromatographic data. Unlike conventional methods that deliver a binary answer pertaining to the expected presence or absence of a chromatographic peak, our method calculates the probability of a point being affected by

  1. A new automatic fixed peak technology of microcontroller

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Liguo; Wang Dequan; Zhang Damin; Li Jun; Liu Yuwen; Guo Qingxue; Wang Guifeng

    1999-01-01

    The microcontroller automatic fixed peak technology which differs from fashion half channel fixed peak is described. It bases on the principles of selecting double single channel and readjusting the voltage of power source. This technology is suitable to the industrial isotope instruments with various radioactive sources

  2. Seasonal variability of the hydrogen exosphere of Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halekas, J. S.

    2017-05-01

    The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission measures both the upstream solar wind and collisional products from energetic neutral hydrogen atoms that precipitate into the upper atmosphere after their initial formation by charge exchange with exospheric hydrogen. By computing the ratio between the densities of these populations, we derive a robust measurement of the column density of exospheric hydrogen upstream of the Martian bow shock. By comparing with Chamberlain-type model exospheres, we place new constraints on the structure and escape rates of exospheric hydrogen, derived from observations sensitive to a different and potentially complementary column from most scattered sunlight observations. Our observations provide quantitative estimates of the hydrogen exosphere with nearly complete temporal coverage, revealing order of magnitude seasonal changes in column density and a peak slightly after perihelion, approximately at southern summer solstice. The timing of this peak suggests either a lag in the response of the Martian atmosphere to solar inputs or a seasonal effect driven by lower atmosphere dynamics. The high degree of seasonal variability implied by our observations suggests that the Martian atmosphere and the thermal escape of light elements depend sensitively on solar inputs.

  3. Host reproductive phenology drives seasonal patterns of host use in mosquitoes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan D Burkett-Cadena

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal shifts in host use by mosquitoes from birds to mammals drive the timing and intensity of annual epidemics of mosquito-borne viruses, such as West Nile virus, in North America. The biological mechanism underlying these shifts has been a matter of debate, with hypotheses falling into two camps: (1 the shift is driven by changes in host abundance, or (2 the shift is driven by seasonal changes in the foraging behavior of mosquitoes. Here we explored the idea that seasonal changes in host use by mosquitoes are driven by temporal patterns of host reproduction. We investigated the relationship between seasonal patterns of host use by mosquitoes and host reproductive phenology by examining a seven-year dataset of blood meal identifications from a site in Tuskegee National Forest, Alabama USA and data on reproduction from the most commonly utilized endothermic (white-tailed deer, great blue heron, yellow-crowned night heron and ectothermic (frogs hosts. Our analysis revealed that feeding on each host peaked during periods of reproductive activity. Specifically, mosquitoes utilized herons in the spring and early summer, during periods of peak nest occupancy, whereas deer were fed upon most during the late summer and fall, the period corresponding to the peak in births for deer. For frogs, however, feeding on early- and late-season breeders paralleled peaks in male vocalization. We demonstrate for the first time that seasonal patterns of host use by mosquitoes track the reproductive phenology of the hosts. Peaks in relative mosquito feeding on each host during reproductive phases are likely the result of increased tolerance and decreased vigilance to attacking mosquitoes by nestlings and brooding adults (avian hosts, quiescent young (avian and mammalian hosts, and mate-seeking males (frogs.

  4. Impact of Smart Grid Technologies on Peak Load to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    The IEA's Smart Grids Technology Roadmap identified five global trends that could be effectively addressed by deploying smart grids. These are: increasing peak load (the maximum power that the grid delivers during peak hours), rising electricity consumption, electrification of transport, deployment of variable generation technologies (e.g. wind and solar PV) and ageing infrastructure. Along with this roadmap, a new working paper -- Impact of Smart Grid Technologies on Peak Load to 2050 -- develops a methodology to estimate the evolution of peak load until 2050. It also analyses the impact of smart grid technologies in reducing peak load for four key regions; OECD North America, OECD Europe, OECD Pacific and China. This working paper is a first IEA effort in an evolving modelling process of smart grids that is considering demand response in residential and commercial sectors as well as the integration of electric vehicles.

  5. Seasonal variations of vivax and falciparum malaria: an observation at a tertiary care hospital

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamil, S.; Khan, M.N.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Malaria is a major public health problem in the malaria endemic zones of the world. Various factors influence the prevalence of malaria. This study was conducted to determine the variation in frequency of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in different seasons of the year in Khyber Teaching Hospital, Peshawar. Methods: A total of 411 patients were included in the study. All these febrile patients were reported to have trophozoites of either Plasmodium vivax or Plasmodium falciparum malaria on Giemsa stained thick and thin smears. The frequency of vivax and falciparum malaria was worked out and statistically analysed for different season of the year. The study was carried out from 2nd Jan 2004 till 31st December 2008. Results: Out of total 411 diagnosed malaria cases, total 134 (32.60%) presented in the autumn season (vivax=33.58%, and falciparum=66.42%), 37 (9%) in winter season (vivax=32.4%, and falciparum=67.6%), 76 (18.49%) in spring season (vivax=93.4% and falciparum 6.6%) and 164 (39.90%) in summer season (vivax=89.6, and falciparum=10.4%). The malaria showed a highly significant pattern in different seasons of the year (p=0.00) in a way that Plasmodium falciparum malaria reached its highest frequency in autumn and winter seasons while Plasmodium vivax malaria reached its peak frequency in spring and summer seasons. Conclusion: There was highly significant seasonal variation of vivax and falciparum malaria. There is arrival of Plasmodium falciparum in autumn which peaks in winter followed by arrival of Plasmodium vivax in spring till the end of summer. (author)

  6. Mortality after hemorrhagic stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    González-Pérez, Antonio; Gaist, David; Wallander, Mari-Ann

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate short-term case fatality and long-term mortality after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) using data from The Health Improvement Network database. METHODS: Thirty-day case fatality was stratified by age, sex, and calendar year after ICH...... = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: More than one-third of individuals die in the first month after hemorrhagic stroke, and patients younger than 50 years are more likely to die after ICH than SAH. Short-term case fatality has decreased over time. Patients who survive hemorrhagic stroke have a continuing elevated......, 54.6% for 80-89 years; SAH: 20.3% for 20-49 years, 56.7% for 80-89 years; both p-trend stroke patients...

  7. Extended season for northern butterflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Bengt

    2014-07-01

    Butterflies are like all insects in that they are temperature sensitive and a changing climate with higher temperatures might effect their phenology. Several studies have found support for earlier flight dates among the investigated species. A comparative study with data from a citizen science project, including 66 species of butterflies in Sweden, was undertaken, and the result confirms that most butterfly species now fly earlier during the season. This is especially evident for butterflies overwintering as adults or as pupae. However, the advancement in phenology is correlated with flight date, and some late season species show no advancement or have even postponed their flight dates and are now flying later in the season. The results also showed that latitude had a strong effect on the adult flight date, and most of the investigated species showed significantly later flights towards the north. Only some late flying species showed an opposite trend, flying earlier in the north. A majority of the investigated species in this study showed a general response to temperature and advanced their flight dates with warmer temperatures (on average they advanced their flight dates by 3.8 days/°C), although not all species showed this response. In essence, a climate with earlier springs and longer growing seasons seems not to change the appearance patterns in a one-way direction. We now see butterflies on the wings both earlier and later in the season and some consequences of these patterns are discussed. So far, studies have concentrated mostly on early season butterfly-plant interactions but also late season studies are needed for a better understanding of long-term population consequences.

  8. The association of meteorological factors and mortality in rural Bangladesh, 1983–2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Kim Streatfield

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: While the association of weather and mortality has been well documented for moderate climate zones, little is known about sub-tropical zones, particularly Bangladesh. This study aims to assess the short-term relationship of temperature and rainfall on daily mortality after controlling for seasonality and time-trends. The study used data from Matlab, Bangladesh, where a rigorous health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS has been operational since 1966. Material and methods: Matlab HDSS data on mortality and population for the period 1983–2009 were used. Weather data for the same period were obtained from a nearby government weather station. Time series Poisson regression with cubic spline functions was applied allowing for lagged effects of weather and extreme weather events on mortality, and controlling for time trends and seasonal patterns. Analysis was carried out using R statistical software. Results: Both temperature and rainfall showed strong seasonal patterns, explaining a significant part of mortality in all age groups. After adjusting for seasonality and trend, mortality and temperature show a U-shaped pattern; below a temperature of around 29°C, a decrease in temperature resulted in an increase in mortality, whereas above 29°C, increased temperature resulted in increased mortality. The strongest negative mortality temperature association was observed in the elderly (5.4% increase with every 1°C decrease in temperature at temperatures below 23°C, and the opposite trend was observed in the age groups 1–4 and 5–19 years old. At aggregate level, the rainfall–mortality association is statistically weak. However in the age group 5–19, a 0.6% increase in mortality per 1 mm additional rainfall was found, at rainfall levels over 100 mm per day. Multivariate analysis showed high mortality risks for women aged 20–59 years of age during cyclone episodes. Discussion: Weather and extreme weather were associated

  9. ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CALF MORTALITY ON DAIRY FARMS IN KUWAIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. RAZZAQUE, M. BEDAIR, S. ABBAS AND T. AL-MUTAWA

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective of this study was to investigate the economic impact of mortality of pre-weaned calves on dairy cattle enterprise in Kuwait. Cost/benefit analysis model was applied to two different situations: in the first situation, a baseline scenario, field survey data without intervention using 1,280 newborn calves was used in first calving season. In the second situation, the intervention scenario (improved management, 665 newborn calves were used in second calving season during the following year. Calving seasons extended for 7 months from September to March. Calf performance studies were conducted from birth to weaning. Economic model was constructed on Microsoft Excel and used to evaluate the impact of calf mortality on calf enterprise. Results showed that gross margins increased from 13 to 35% as a result of implementation of intervention measures during the second calving season over baseline scenario. A significant correlation between increased veterinary expenses and an increase in revenues (r2 = 0.65, P<0.05 was observed. If the intervention measures such as colostrum feeding, nutrition and hygiene had not been implemented, the farms would have lose income from 12 to 51% of the gross revenues. Net income was influenced by costs of feeds, veterinary services and laborers. Discounted cash flow studies on a whole farm basis revealed that the impact of interventions was small (0-3%. Calf mortality could not be isolated from whole farm for assessing its impact on dairy farm economics. Economic studies demonstrated the cost/benefits of using the improved techniques of calf rearing.

  10. Seasonal variation in the prevalence of preeclampsia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Janani

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Hypertension in pregnancy is one of the three factors of maternal mortality. Etiology of the disease is unknown, but the many factors contributing to the identification and control of it can be taken a step to prevent and reduce the symptoms of the disease. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of preeclampsia (high-blood pressure in different seasons of the year. Methods: The present retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted on more than 8,000 pregnant women visiting Assali specialized hospital from 2011 to 2013. Required data was collected through questionnaire checklist. The Chi-square test with multiple comparisons was used to compare the frequencies of pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH according to the month of year, and adjustment of multiplicity was conducted using Bonferroni's method. Student's t-test was used to compare the means of PIH prevalence rates. In all analyses, P < 0.05 was taken to indicate statistical significance. Results: In these 8000 woman admitted to labor, overall prevalence of PIH was 3.8 ± 0.6%. The prevalence rate of PIH was highest in the summer (4.5% and lowest frequent in the winter (2.7%, respectively. In July, the prevalence rate was significantly higher than those for any other month (4.7%, and in March, it was lower prevalence than for any month (2.2%, respectively. Using the Chi-square test, a significant difference between the incidence of disease was observed in summer and winter (P < 0.001. Conclusion: The prevalence rate of PIH was higher for delivery in summer and early spring and lowest for winter delivery among Khorramabad women based on these results; it seems that changes in temperature and humidity in different seasons can affect preeclampsia, and preeclampsia increases with increasing frequency temperature.

  11. Effects of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Hefei city, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jing; Xiao, Chang-chun; Li, Yu-rong; Zhang, Jun-qing; Zhai, Hao-yuan; Geng, Xi-ya; Ding, Rui; Zhai, Jin-xia

    2018-05-01

    Although several studies indicated an association between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and mortality, the results about modifiers are inconsistent, and few studies were conducted in developing inland country. This study aims to evaluate the effects of DTR on cause-specific mortality and whether season, gender, or age might modify any association in Hefei city, China, during 2007-2016. Quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression models combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) were applied to evaluate the relationships between DTR and non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. We observed a J-shaped relationship between DTR and cause-specific mortality. With a DTR of 8.3 °C as the reference, the cumulative effects of extremely high DTR were significantly higher for all types of mortality than effects of lower or moderate DTR in full year. When stratified by season, extremely high DTR in spring had a greater impact on all cause-specific mortality than other three seasons. Male and the elderly (≥ 65 years) were consistently more susceptible to extremely high DTR effect than female and the youth (groups from extremely high DTR especially in the spring.

  12. Excess Early Mortality in Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Thomas Munk; Nordentoft, Merete; Mortensen, Preben Bo

    2014-01-01

    Schizophrenia is often referred to as one of the most severe mental disorders, primarily because of the very high mortality rates of those with the disorder. This article reviews the literature on excess early mortality in persons with schizophrenia and suggests reasons for the high mortality...... as well as possible ways to reduce it. Persons with schizophrenia have an exceptionally short life expectancy. High mortality is found in all age groups, resulting in a life expectancy of approximately 20 years below that of the general population. Evidence suggests that persons with schizophrenia may...... not have seen the same improvement in life expectancy as the general population during the past decades. Thus, the mortality gap not only persists but may actually have increased. The most urgent research agenda concerns primary candidates for modifiable risk factors contributing to this excess mortality...

  13. Estimates of Avian Mortality Attributed to Vehicle Collisions in Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine A. Bishop

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Although mortality of birds from collisions with vehicles is estimated to be in the millions in the USA, Europe, and the UK, to date, no estimates exist for Canada. To address this, we calculated an estimate of annual avian mortality attributed to vehicular collisions during the breeding and fledging season, in Canadian ecozones, by applying North American literature values for avian mortality to Canadian road networks. Because owls are particularly susceptible to collisions with vehicles, we also estimated the number of roadkilled Barn owls (Tyto alba in its last remaining range within Canada. (This species is on the IUCN red list and is also listed federally as threatened; Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada 2010, International Union for the Conservation of Nature 2012. Through seven Canadian studies in existence, 80 species and 2,834 specimens have been found dead on roads representing species from 14 orders of birds. On Canadian 1 and 2-lane paved roads outside of major urban centers, the unadjusted number of bird mortalities/yr during an estimated 4-mo (122-d breeding and fledging season for most birds in Canada was 4,650,137 on roads traversing through deciduous, coniferous, cropland, wetlands and nonagricultural landscapes with less than 10% treed area. On average, this represents 1,167 birds killed/100 km in Canada. Adjusted for scavenging, this estimate was 13,810,906 (3,462 dead birds/100 km. For barn owls, the unadjusted number of birds killed annually on 4-lane roads during the breeding and fledging season, within the species geographic range in southern British Columbia, was estimated as 244 owls and, when adjusted for scavenging and observer bias (3.6 factor, the total was 851 owls.

  14. Peak broadening in paper chromatography and related techniques : III. Peak broadening in thin-layer chromatography on cellulose powder

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ligny, C.L. de; Remijnse, A.G.

    1968-01-01

    The mechanism of peak broadening in thin-layer chromatography on cellulose powder was investigated by comparing the peak widths obtained in chromatography with those caused only by diffusion in the cellulose powder, for a set of amino acids of widely differing RF values and six kinds of cellulose

  15. Evaluation of different time domain peak models using extreme learning machine-based peak detection for EEG signal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Asrul; Ibrahim, Zuwairie; Mokhtar, Norrima; Shapiai, Mohd Ibrahim; Cumming, Paul; Mubin, Marizan

    2016-01-01

    Various peak models have been introduced to detect and analyze peaks in the time domain analysis of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. In general, peak model in the time domain analysis consists of a set of signal parameters, such as amplitude, width, and slope. Models including those proposed by Dumpala, Acir, Liu, and Dingle are routinely used to detect peaks in EEG signals acquired in clinical studies of epilepsy or eye blink. The optimal peak model is the most reliable peak detection performance in a particular application. A fair measure of performance of different models requires a common and unbiased platform. In this study, we evaluate the performance of the four different peak models using the extreme learning machine (ELM)-based peak detection algorithm. We found that the Dingle model gave the best performance, with 72 % accuracy in the analysis of real EEG data. Statistical analysis conferred that the Dingle model afforded significantly better mean testing accuracy than did the Acir and Liu models, which were in the range 37-52 %. Meanwhile, the Dingle model has no significant difference compared to Dumpala model.

  16. Does the reproductive season account for more records of birds in a marked seasonal climate landscape in the state of São Paulo, Brazil?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vagner Cavarzere

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Investigators have reported that birds from temperate regions are more detectable during their breeding seasons, which should be used to adequately survey avifaunas. In the state of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, the rainiest months of the year are usually associated with a peak in the reproduction of birds. To test the hypothesis that birds are equally detectable throughout the year, I conducted transect counts of birds in a predominantly open Cerrado landscape in São Paulo during 2005 and 2006. There was no significant difference in the number of species or individuals between breeding (rainy and nonbreeding (dry seasons; 24% of the species with > 50 contacts was likely to be recorded more often in a particular season. Unlike temperate regions, where vocal behavior plays an important role in detections of birds during and after reproductive seasons, my results suggest that Cerrado birds may be evenly detected throughout the year.

  17. Seasonal variation in sports participation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schüttoff, Ute; Pawlowski, Tim

    2018-02-01

    This study explores indicators describing socio-demographics, sports participation characteristics and motives which are associated with variation in sports participation across seasons. Data were drawn from the German Socio-Economic Panel which contains detailed information on the sports behaviour of adults in Germany. Overall, two different measures of seasonal variation are developed and used as dependent variables in our regression models. The first variable measures the coefficient of (seasonal) variation in sport-related energy expenditure per week. The second variable measures whether activity drops below the threshold as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). Results suggest that the organisational setting, the intensity and number of sports practised, and the motive for participation are strongly correlated with the variation measures used. For example, both, participation in a sports club and a commercial facility, are associated with reduced seasonal variation and a significantly higher probability of participating at a volume above the WHO threshold across all seasons. These findings give some impetus for policymaking and the planning of sports programmes as well as future research directions.

  18. Adult mortality in preindustrial Quebec

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudine Lacroix - - - Bertrand Desjardins

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the main results of a detailed study on adult mortality in French Canadians born before 1750 and having married inthe colony of New France. Using data from parish registers, mortality is studied using abridged life tables, with staggered entries according to age at first marriage. Survival tables and log-Rank tests are used to support the results. Three features were selected for the study of differential mortality: gender, type of residence area (urban or rural, and cohort. The mortality of French Canadians is compared to that of their French contemporaries.

  19. Main flood peaks in the medieval Carpathian Basin (1000-1500): Annual and decadal overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiss, Andrea

    2013-04-01

    The analysis of over 140 reported floods is mainly based on contemporary legal evidence (charters), partly on other types of contemporary documentary evidence. Majority of sources contains data on individual flood events (i.e. occurrence, seasonality, magnitude). Concerning main flood peaks, evidence on annual and multi-annual (decadal, multi-decadal) level is also available. Despite data increase in the 13th century, only in the 14th-15th centuries documentation is representative enough to draw further conclusions. Apart from secondary flood peaks (probably in the mid-13th century and the turn of the 13th-14th centuries), three main periods with high flood frequencies are detected: 1330s-1350s, 1390s-1430s, and the late 1480s-1490s (continuing in the early 16th century). The first major flood peak was primarily reported in the eastern Carpathian Basin (the Tisa catchment), and can be characterised by a number of high-intensity flood events (with 1342-1343 in centre). During the second major, prolonged flood peak of 1390s-1430s, and that of the third, late 15th century one the importance of floods occurred on the Danube and in the Danube catchment area has to be as well highlighted. Moreover, in the first half of the 15th century long-term hydrological problems (prolonged high water-level and high flood frequency problems) can be identified. In some cases high flood-frequency periods were accompanied by documented hydromorphological impacts and some impacts on society can be also detected. Results show good agreement with the decadal precipitation reconstruction based on speleothem investigations carried out in North-Hungary.

  20. Continuing increase in mesothelioma mortality in Britain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peto, J; Hodgson, J T; Matthews, F E; Jones, J R

    1995-03-04

    Mesothelioma is closely related to exposure to asbestos, and mesothelioma mortality can be taken as an index of past exposure to asbestos in the population. We analysed mesothelioma mortality since 1968 to assess the current state of the mesothelioma epidemic, and to predict its future course. We found that rates of mesothelioma in men formed a clear pattern defined by age and date of birth. Rates rose steeply with age showing a very similar pattern in all five-year birth cohorts. By date of birth, rates increased from mid-1893 to mid-1948, and then fell. Relative to the 1943-48 cohort, the risk for the 1948-53 cohort is 0.79 and for the 1953-58 cohort 0.48. Despite these falls, if the age profile of rates for these cohorts follows the pattern of past cohorts, their predicted lifetime mesothelioma risks will be 1.3%, 1.0%, and 0.6%. Combining projections for all cohorts results in a peak of annual male mesothelioma deaths in about the year 2020 of between 2700 and 3300 deaths. If diagnostic trend is responsible for a 20% growth in recorded cases every 5 years--an extreme but arguable case--and if this trend has now ceased, the peak of annual male deaths will be reduced to 1300, reached around the year 2010. Analysis of occupations recorded on death certificates indicate that building workers, especially plumbers and gas fitters, carpenters and electricians are the largest high-risk group. These data indicate that mesothelioma deaths will continue to increase for at least 15 and more likely 25 years. For the worst affected cohorts--men born in the 1940s--mesothelioma may account for around 1% of all deaths. Asbestos exposure at work in construction and building maintenance will account for a large proportion of these deaths, and it is important that such workers should be aware of the risks and take appropriate precautions.

  1. System dynamics model of Hubbert Peak for China's oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tao Zaipu; Li Mingyu

    2007-01-01

    American geophysicist M. King Hubbert in 1956 first introduced a logistic equation to estimate the peak and lifetime production for oil of USA. Since then, a fierce debate ensued on the so-called Hubbert Peak, including also its methodology. This paper proposes to use the generic STELLA model to simulate Hubbert Peak, particularly for the Chinese oil production. This model is demonstrated as being robust. We used three scenarios to estimate the Chinese oil peak: according to scenario 1 of this model, the Hubbert Peak for China's crude oil production appears to be in 2019 with a value of 199.5 million tonnes, which is about 1.1 times the 2005 output. Before the peak comes, Chinese oil output will grow by about 1-2% annually, after the peak, however, the output will fall. By 2040, the annual production of Chinese crude oil would be equivalent to the level of 1990. During the coming 20 years, the crude oil demand of China will probably grow at the rate of 2-3% annually, and the gap between domestic supply and total demand may be more than half of this demand

  2. Core fueling to produce peaked density profiles in large tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mikkelsen, D.R.; McGuire, K.M.; Schmidt, G.L.; Zweben, S.J.

    1994-06-01

    Peaking the density profile increases the usable bootstrap current and the average fusion power density; this could reduce the current drive power and increase the net output of power producing tokamaks. The use of neutral beams and pellet injection to produce peaked density profiles is assessed. We show that with radially ''hollow'' diffusivity profiles (and no particle pinch) moderately peaked density profiles can be produced by particle source profiles which are peaked off-axis. The fueling penetration requirements can therefore be relaxed and this greatly improves the feasibility of generating peaked density profiles in large tokamaks. In particular, neutral beam fueling does not require MeV particle energy. Even with beam voltages of ∼200 keV, however, exceptionally good particle confinement, τ p much-gt τ E is required to achieve net electrical power generation. In system with no power production requirement (e.g., neutron sources) neutral beam fueling should be capable of producing peaked density profiles in devices as large as ITER. Fueling systems with low energy cost per particle (such as cryogenic pellet injection) must be used in power producing tokamaks when τ p ∼ τ E . Simulations with pellet injection speeds of 7 km/sec show the peaking factor, n eo /left-angle n e right-angle, approaching 2

  3. Probabilistic peak detection for first-order chromatographic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopatka, M; Vivó-Truyols, G; Sjerps, M J

    2014-03-19

    We present a novel algorithm for probabilistic peak detection in first-order chromatographic data. Unlike conventional methods that deliver a binary answer pertaining to the expected presence or absence of a chromatographic peak, our method calculates the probability of a point being affected by such a peak. The algorithm makes use of chromatographic information (i.e. the expected width of a single peak and the standard deviation of baseline noise). As prior information of the existence of a peak in a chromatographic run, we make use of the statistical overlap theory. We formulate an exhaustive set of mutually exclusive hypotheses concerning presence or absence of different peak configurations. These models are evaluated by fitting a segment of chromatographic data by least-squares. The evaluation of these competing hypotheses can be performed as a Bayesian inferential task. We outline the potential advantages of adopting this approach for peak detection and provide several examples of both improved performance and increased flexibility afforded by our approach. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Core fuelling to produce peaked density profiles in large tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mikkelsen, D.R.; McGuire, K.M.; Schmidt, G.L.; Zweben, S.J.

    1995-01-01

    Peaking the density profile increases the usable bootstrap current and the average fusion power density; this could reduce the current drive power and increase the net output of power producing tokamaks. The use of neutral beams and pellet injection to produce peaked density profiles is assessed. It is shown that with radially 'hollow' diffusivity profiles (and no particle pinch) moderately peaked density profiles can be produced by particle source profiles that are peaked off-axis. The fuelling penetration requirements can therefore be relaxed and this greatly improves the feasibility of generating peaked density profiles in large tokamaks. In particular, neutral beam fuelling does not require Megavolt particle energies. Even with beam voltages of ∼ 200 keV, however, exceptionally good particle confinement is needed to achieve net electrical power generation. The required ratio of particle to thermal diffusivities is an order of magnitude outside the range reported for tokamaks. In a system with no power production requirement (e.g., neutron sources) neutral beam fuelling should be capable of producing peaked density profiles in devices as large as ITER. Fuelling systems with low energy cost per particle - such as cryogenic pellet injection - must be used in power producing tokamaks when τ P ∼ τ E . Simulations with pellet injection speeds of 7 km/s show that the peaking factor, n e0 / e >, approaches 2. (author). 65 refs, 8 figs

  5. Coastal upwelling seasonality and variability of temperature and chlorophyll in a small coastal embayment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Ryan K.; Armenta, Kevin J.; Shearer, Brandon; Robbins, Ian; Steinbeck, John

    2018-02-01

    While the seasonality of wind-driven coastal upwelling in eastern boundary upwelling systems has long been established, many studies describe two distinct seasons (upwelling and non-upwelling), a generalized framework that does not capture details relevant to marine ecosystems. In this contribution, we present a more detailed description of the annual cycle and upwelling seasonality for an understudied location along the central California coast. Using both the mean monthly upwelling favorable wind stress and the monthly standard deviation, we define the following seasons (contiguous months) and a transitional period (non-contiguous months): "Winter Storms" season (Dec-Jan-Feb), "Upwelling Transition" period (Mar and Jun), "Peak Upwelling" season (Apr-May), "Upwelling Relaxation" season (Jul-Aug-Sep), and "Winter Transition" season (Oct-Nov). In order to describe the oceanic response to this upwelling wind seasonality, we take advantage of nearly a decade of full water-column measurements of temperature and chlorophyll made using an automated profiling system at the end of the California Polytechnic State University Pier in San Luis Obispo Bay, a small ( 2 km wide near study site) and shallow ( 10 m average bay depth) coastal embayment. Variability and average-year patterns are described inside the bay during the various upwelling seasons. Moreover, the role of the local coastline orientation and topography on bay dynamics is also assessed using long-term measurements collected outside of the bay. The formation of a seasonally variable upwelling shadow system and potential nearshore retention zone is discussed. The observations presented provide a framework on which to study interannual changes to the average-year seasonal cycle, assess the contribution of higher-frequency features to nearshore variability, and better predict dynamically and ecologically important events.

  6. Spatiotemporal analysis of particulate air pollution and ischemic heart disease mortality in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Meimei; Guo, Yuming; Zhang, Yajuan; Westerdahl, Dane; Mo, Yunzheng; Liang, Fengchao; Pan, Xiaochuan

    2014-12-12

    Few studies have used spatially resolved ambient particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of <10 μm (PM10) to examine the impact of PM10 on ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in China. The aim of our study is to evaluate the short-term effects of PM10 concentrations on IHD mortality by means of spatiotemporal analysis approach. We collected daily data on air pollution, weather conditions and IHD mortality in Beijing, China during 2008 and 2009. Ordinary kriging (OK) was used to interpolate daily PM10 concentrations at the centroid of 287 township-level areas based on 27 monitoring sites covering the whole city. A generalized additive mixed model was used to estimate quantitatively the impact of spatially resolved PM10 on the IHD mortality. The co-effects of the seasons, gender and age were studied in a stratified analysis. Generalized additive model was used to evaluate the effects of averaged PM10 concentration as well. The averaged spatially resolved PM10 concentration at 287 township-level areas was 120.3 ± 78.1 μg/m3. Ambient PM10 concentration was associated with IHD mortality in spatiotemporal analysis and the strongest effects were identified for the 2-day average. A 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10 was associated with an increase of 0.33% (95% confidence intervals: 0.13%, 0.52%) in daily IHD mortality. The effect estimates using spatially resolved PM10 were larger than that using averaged PM10. The seasonal stratification analysis showed that PM10 had the statistically stronger effects on IHD mortality in summer than that in the other seasons. Males and older people demonstrated the larger response to PM10 exposure. Our results suggest that short-term exposure to particulate air pollution is associated with increased IHD mortality. Spatial variation should be considered for assessing the impacts of particulate air pollution on mortality.

  7. Inequalities in mortality: study rates, not standardised mortality ratios [Letter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonneux, L.G.A.

    2010-01-01

    In their study from 1921 to 2007 Thomas and colleagues conclude on the basis of standardised mortality ratios that inequalities in mortality continue to rise and are now almost as high as in the 1930s. Relative ratios are, however, misleading when absolute rates change strongly. I calculated the

  8. Retrospective assessment of seasonal allergic symptoms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødtger, Uffe; Poulsen, L K; Malling, H-J

    2003-01-01

    in a double-blind study. Assessment of severity of symptoms from the nose, eyes and lungs were performed daily during the season 2000, and post-seasonally 6 months after the season in 1999 and 2000. A four-point verbal descriptor scale (VDS-4) was used at all occasions. A mean in-seasonal symptom rating...

  9. Peak loads and network investments in sustainable energy transitions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blokhuis, Erik, E-mail: e.g.j.blokhuis@tue.nl [Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Architecture, Building and Planning, Vertigo 8.11, P.O. Box 513, 5600MB Eindhoven (Netherlands); Brouwers, Bart [Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Architecture, Building and Planning, Vertigo 8.11, P.O. Box 513, 5600MB Eindhoven (Netherlands); Putten, Eric van der [Endinet, Gas and Electricity Network Operations, P.O. Box 2005, 5600CA Eindhoven (Netherlands); Schaefer, Wim [Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Architecture, Building and Planning, Vertigo 8.11, P.O. Box 513, 5600MB Eindhoven (Netherlands)

    2011-10-15

    Current energy distribution networks are often not equipped for facilitating expected sustainable transitions. Major concerns for future electricity networks are the possibility of peak load increases and the expected growth of decentralized energy generation. In this article, we focus on peak load increases; the effects of possible future developments on peak loads are studied, together with the consequences for the network. The city of Eindhoven (the Netherlands) is used as reference city, for which a scenario is developed in which the assumed future developments adversely influence the maximum peak loads on the network. In this scenario, the total electricity peak load in Eindhoven is expected to increase from 198 MVA in 2009 to 591-633 MVA in 2040. The necessary investments for facilitating the expected increased peak loads are estimated at 305-375 million Euros. Based upon these projections, it is advocated that - contrary to current Dutch policy - choices regarding sustainable transitions should be made from the viewpoint of integral energy systems, evaluating economic implications of changes to generation, grid development, and consumption. Recently applied and finished policies on energy demand reduction showed to be effective; however, additional and connecting policies on energy generation and distribution should be considered on short term. - Highlights: > Sustainable energy transitions can result in major electricity peak load increases. > Introduction of heat pumps and electrical vehicles requires network expansion. > Under worst case assumptions, peak loads in Eindhoven increase with 200% until 2040. > The necessary investment for facilitating this 2040 peak demand is Euro 305-375 million. > Future policy choices should be made from the viewpoint of the integral energy system.

  10. Peak loads and network investments in sustainable energy transitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blokhuis, Erik; Brouwers, Bart; Putten, Eric van der; Schaefer, Wim

    2011-01-01

    Current energy distribution networks are often not equipped for facilitating expected sustainable transitions. Major concerns for future electricity networks are the possibility of peak load increases and the expected growth of decentralized energy generation. In this article, we focus on peak load increases; the effects of possible future developments on peak loads are studied, together with the consequences for the network. The city of Eindhoven (the Netherlands) is used as reference city, for which a scenario is developed in which the assumed future developments adversely influence the maximum peak loads on the network. In this scenario, the total electricity peak load in Eindhoven is expected to increase from 198 MVA in 2009 to 591-633 MVA in 2040. The necessary investments for facilitating the expected increased peak loads are estimated at 305-375 million Euros. Based upon these projections, it is advocated that - contrary to current Dutch policy - choices regarding sustainable transitions should be made from the viewpoint of integral energy systems, evaluating economic implications of changes to generation, grid development, and consumption. Recently applied and finished policies on energy demand reduction showed to be effective; however, additional and connecting policies on energy generation and distribution should be considered on short term. - Highlights: → Sustainable energy transitions can result in major electricity peak load increases. → Introduction of heat pumps and electrical vehicles requires network expansion. → Under worst case assumptions, peak loads in Eindhoven increase with 200% until 2040. → The necessary investment for facilitating this 2040 peak demand is Euro 305-375 million. → Future policy choices should be made from the viewpoint of the integral energy system.

  11. Female breast cancer incidence and mortality in China, 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuo, Ting‐Ting; Zheng, Rong‐Shou; Zeng, Hong‐Mei; Zhang, Si‐Wei

    2017-01-01

    Background Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women. Population‐based cancer registration data from the National Central Cancer Registry were used to analyze and evaluate the incidence and mortality rates in China in 2013, providing scientific information for cancer prevention and control. Methods Pooled data were stratified by area (urban/rural), gender, and age group. National new cases and deaths were estimated using age‐specific rates and the corresponding population in 2013. The Chinese population in 2000 and Segi's world population were used to calculate age‐standardized rates. Results The estimated number of new breast cancer cases was about 278 800 in China in 2013. The crude incidence, age‐standardized rate of incidence by Chinese standard population, and age‐standardized rate of incidence by world standard population were 42.02/100 000, 30.41/100 000, and 28.42/100 000, respectively. The estimated number of breast cancer deaths was about 64 600 in China in 2013. The crude mortality, age‐standardized rate of mortality by Chinese standard population, and age‐standardized rate of mortality by world standard population were 9.74/100 000, 6.54/100 000, and 6.34/100 000, respectively. Both incidence and mortality were higher in urban than in rural areas. Age‐specific breast cancer incidence significantly increased with age, particularly after age 20, and peaked at 50–55 years, while age‐specific mortality increased rapidly after 25 years, peaking at 85+ years. Conclusions Breast cancer is the most common cancer in Chinese women, especially women in urban areas. Comprehensive measures are needed to reduce the heavy burden of breast cancer. PMID:28296260

  12. Age, growth, mortality, reproduction and feeding habits of the striped seabream, Lithognathus mormyrus (Pisces: Sparidae in the coastal waters of the Thracian Sea, Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Argyris Kallianiotis

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Age, growth, mortality, reproduction and feeding habits were analysed for Lithognathus mormyrus collected in the coastal waters of the Thracian Sea from November 1997 to September 1999. Specimens ranged from 42 to 341 mm in total length. Weight increased with size allometrically (b = 3.242 for immature individuals and isometrically (b = 2.960 for males, females and intersexuals. Growth was described by the standard form of the von Bertalanffy growth equation and the estimated parameters were k = 0.21, t0 = –0.996 and L? = 309.4. Total and natural instantaneous rate of mortality was found to be Z = 0.79 year-1 and M = 0.61 year-1. Sex inversion occurred mainly between 210 and 300 mm (4-9 age classes. Males reached sexual maturity at 162.1 mm (2.5 years and females at 190.40 mm (3.6 years. The spawning period occurred from May to September, while the gamete emission peaked in June-August. Stomach content analysis revealed that L. mormyrus is a carnivorous species feeding on benthic invertebrates, mainly polychaeta and bivalve molluscs. Ontogenetic variation in the diet composition showed that while growing, the fish become more generalist feeders. We also found that in the summer season the fish become more selective feeders.

  13. Relaxation peak near 200 K in NiTi alloy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, J. S.; Schaller, R.; Benoit, W.

    1989-10-01

    Internal friction (IF), frequency ( f), electrical resistance ( R) and zero point movement of the torsion pendulum (ɛ) have been measured in near equi-atomic NiTi alloy in order to clarify the mechanism for the relaxation peak near 200 K. The height of the relaxation peak decreases successively with thermal cycling and settles down to a lower stable value in running 15 cycles. However, the electrical resistance of the sample shows a variation in contrast with the internal friction. Both of them will return to the initial state after a single annealing at 773 K for 1 h. The probable mechanism of this relaxation peak was discussed.

  14. National energy peak leveling program (NEPLP). Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-12-01

    This three-volume report is responsive to the requirements of Contract E (04-3)-1152 to provide a detailed methodology, to include management, technology, and socio-economic aspects, of a voluntary community program of computer-assisted peak load leveling and energy conservation in commercial community facilities. The demonstration project established proof-of-concept in reducing the kW-demand peak by the unofficial goal of 10%, with concurrent kWh savings. This section of the three volume report is a final report appendix with information on the National Energy Peak Leveling Program (NEPLP).

  15. The environmental impacts of peaking at hydropower plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halleraker, Jo Halvard

    2001-01-01

    A recent energy act in Norway allows hydropower plants to be operated so that hydro peaking is permitted. However, it is uncertain how fish react to the variations in discharge and depth that follow hydro peaking. SINTEF Energy Research is cooperating with other research institutions to investigate the consequences of these variations on the biota. Among the research tools is an aqua channel which is an indoor laboratory flume where fish behaviour can be studied in detail. It has been constructed to provide the hydropower industry and public authorities with means of better determining the effects of hydro peaking. (author)

  16. Seasonal Abundance of Aphids and Aphidophagous Insects in Pecan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghulam Abbas

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal occurrence of aphids and aphidophagous insects was monitored for six years (2006–2011 from full leaf expansion in May to leaf fall in October in “Desirable” variety pecan trees that were not treated with insecticides. Aphid outbreaks occurred two times per season, once in the spring and again in the late summer. Yellow pecan and blackmargined aphids exceeded the recommended treatment thresholds one time and black pecan aphids exceeded the recommended treatment levels three times over the six seasons. Increases in aphidophagous insect abundance coincided with aphid outbreaks in five of the six seasons. Among aphidophagous insects Harmonia axyridis and Olla v-nigrum were frequently collected in both the tree canopy and at the ground level, whereas, Coccinella septempunctata, Hippodamia convergens were rarely found in the tree canopy and commonly found at the ground level. Green lacewing abundance was higher in the ground level than in the tree canopy. Brown lacewings were more abundant in the tree canopy than at the ground level. Dolichopodid and syrphid fly abundance, at the ground level increased during peak aphid abundance in the tree canopy. Application of an aqueous solution of fermenting molasses to the pecan foliage during an aphid outbreak significantly increased the abundance of ladybeetles and lacewings and significantly reduced the abundance of yellow pecan, blackmargined and black pecan aphids.

  17. Seasonal Abundance of Aphids and Aphidophagous Insects in Pecan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutcher, James D.; Karar, Haider; Abbas, Ghulam

    2012-01-01

    Seasonal occurrence of aphids and aphidophagous insects was monitored for six years (2006–2011) from full leaf expansion in May to leaf fall in October in “Desirable” variety pecan trees that were not treated with insecticides. Aphid outbreaks occurred two times per season, once in the spring and again in the late summer. Yellow pecan and blackmargined aphids exceeded the recommended treatment thresholds one time and black pecan aphids exceeded the recommended treatment levels three times over the six seasons. Increases in aphidophagous insect abundance coincided with aphid outbreaks in five of the six seasons. Among aphidophagous insects Harmonia axyridis and Olla v-nigrum were frequently collected in both the tree canopy and at the ground level, whereas, Coccinella septempunctata, Hippodamia convergens were rarely found in the tree canopy and commonly found at the ground level. Green lacewing abundance was higher in the ground level than in the tree canopy. Brown lacewings were more abundant in the tree canopy than at the ground level. Dolichopodid and syrphid fly abundance, at the ground level increased during peak aphid abundance in the tree canopy. Application of an aqueous solution of fermenting molasses to the pecan foliage during an aphid outbreak significantly increased the abundance of ladybeetles and lacewings and significantly reduced the abundance of yellow pecan, blackmargined and black pecan aphids. PMID:26466738

  18. Phlebotomus argentipes seasonal patterns in India and Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picado, Albert; Das, Murari Lal; Kumar, Vijay; Dinesh, Diwakar S; Rijal, Suman; Singh, Shri P; Das, Pradeep; Coosemans, Marc; Boelaert, Marleen; Davies, Clive

    2010-03-01

    The current control of Phebotomus argentipes (Annandale and Brunetti), the vector of Leishmania donovani (Laveran and Mesnil), on the Indian subcontinent is base on indoor residual spraying. The efficacy of this method depends, among other factors, on the timing and number of spraying rounds, which depend on the P. argentipes seasonality. To describe P. argentipes' seasonal patterns, six visceral leishmaniasis (VL) endemic villages, three in Muzaffarpur and three in Sunsari districts in India and Nepal, respectively, were selected based on accessibility and VL incidence. Ten houses per cluster with the highest P. argentipes density were monitored monthly for 15-16 mo using Center for Disease Control and Prevention light traps. Minimum and maximum temperature and rainfall data for the months January 2006 through December 2007 were collected from the nearest available weather stations. Backwards stepwise regression was used to generate the minimal adequate model for explaining the monthly variation in P. argentipes populations. The seasonality of P. argentipes is similar in India and Nepal, with two annual density peaks around May and October. Monthly P. argentipes density is positively associated with temperature and negatively associated with rainfall in both study sites. The multivariate climate model explained 57% of the monthly vectorial abundance. Vector control programs against P. argentipes (i.e., indoor residual spraying) should take into account the seasonal described here when implementing and monitoring interventions. Monitoring simple meteorological variables (i.e., temperature, rainfall) may allow prediction of VL epidemics on the Indian subcontinent.

  19. Seasonality in ocean microbial communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovannoni, Stephen J; Vergin, Kevin L

    2012-02-10

    Ocean warming occurs every year in seasonal cycles that can help us to understand long-term responses of plankton to climate change. Rhythmic seasonal patterns of microbial community turnover are revealed when high-resolution measurements of microbial plankton diversity are applied to samples collected in lengthy time series. Seasonal cycles in microbial plankton are complex, but the expansion of fixed ocean stations monitoring long-term change and the development of automated instrumentation are providing the time-series data needed to understand how these cycles vary across broad geographical scales. By accumulating data and using predictive modeling, we gain insights into changes that will occur as the ocean surface continues to warm and as the extent and duration of ocean stratification increase. These developments will enable marine scientists to predict changes in geochemical cycles mediated by microbial communities and to gauge their broader impacts.

  20. Ratio of left ventricular peak E-wave velocity to flow propagation velocity assessed by color M-mode Doppler echocardiography in first myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, J E; Søndergaard, E; Seward, J B

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To determine the ability of the ratio of peak E-wave velocity to flow propagation velocity (E/Vp) measured with color M-mode Doppler echocardiography to predict in-hospital heart failure and cardiac mortality in an unselected consecutive population with first myocardial infarction (MI...

  1. Mars methane rises and falls with the seasons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hand, Eric

    2018-01-01

    On Earth, atmospheric methane is a prominent sign of life. On Mars, the story is more complicated. Trace detections of methane, alongside glimpses of larger spikes, have fueled debates about biological and nonbiological sources of the gas. Now, NASA scientists have announced a new twist in the tale: Methane regularly rises to a peak in late northern summer in a seasonal pattern. The swings are larger than can be explained by the planet's seasonal freeze-thaw cycles. The wiggles are a mystery within a larger mystery: claims of methane spikes an order of magnitude or two higher than the background. Some scientists say meteor showers could be responsible, by depositing carbonaceous material in the atmosphere that reacts to form methane. A close encounter on 24 January with debris from a comet could provide a chance to test the hypothesis.

  2. Seasonality in twin birth rates, Denmark, 1936-84.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnelykke, B; Søgaard, J; Nielsen, J

    1987-12-01

    A study was made of seasonality in twin birth rate in Denmark between 1977 and 1984. We studied all twin births (N = 45,550) in all deliveries (N = 3,679,932) during that period. Statistical analysis using a simple harmonic sinusoidal model provided no evidence for seasonality. However, sequential polynomial analysis disclosed a significant fit to a fifth order polynomial curve with peaks in twin birth rates in May-June and December, along with troughs in February and September. A falling trend in twinning rate broke off in Denmark around 1970, and from 1970 to 1984 an increasing trend was found. The results are discussed in terms of possible environmental influences on twinning.

  3. Smart households: Dispatch strategies and economic analysis of distributed energy storage for residential peak shaving

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, Menglian; Meinrenken, Christoph J.; Lackner, Klaus S.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Cost-effectiveness of building-based storage for peak shaving has hitherto not been well understood. • Several existing storage technologies are shown to provide cost-effective peak shaving. • Setting grid demand targets rather than hard demand limits improves economics. • Accounting for seasonal demand variations in storage dispatch strategy improves economics further. • Total-energy-throughput approach is used to determine storage lifetimes. - Abstract: Meeting time-varying peak demand poses a key challenge to the U.S. electricity system. Building-based electricity storage – to enable demand response (DR) without curtailing actual appliance usage – offers potential benefits of lower electricity production cost, higher grid reliability, and more flexibility to integrate renewables. DR tariffs are currently available in the U.S. but building-based storage is still underutilized due to insufficiently understood cost-effectiveness and dispatch strategies. Whether DR schemes can yield a profit for building operators (i.e., reduction in electricity bill that exceeds levelized storage cost) and which particular storage technology yields the highest profit is yet to be answered. This study aims to evaluate the economics of providing peak shaving DR under a realistic tariff (Con Edison, New York), using a range of storage technologies (conventional and advanced batteries, flywheel, magnetic storage, pumped hydro, compressed air, and capacitors). An agent-based stochastic model is used to randomly generate appliance-level demand profiles for an average U.S. household. We first introduce a levelized storage cost model which is based on a total-energy-throughput lifetime. We then develop a storage dispatch strategy which optimizes the storage capacity and the demand limit on the grid. We find that (i) several storage technologies provide profitable DR; (ii) annual profit from such DR can range from 1% to 39% of the household’s non-DR electricity

  4. Water-use advantage for lianas over trees in tropical seasonal forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.J.; Cao, K.F.; Schnitzer, S.A.; Fan, Z.X.; Zhang, J.L.; Bongers, F.

    2015-01-01

    •Lianas exhibit peak abundance in tropical forests with strong seasonal droughts, the eco-physiological mechanisms associated with lianas coping with water deficits are poorly understood. •We examined soil water partitioning, sap flow, and canopy eco-physiological properties for 99 individuals of 15

  5. The effect of the seasonal cerebro-spinal meningitis on the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We found that the peak of the incidence of acquired hydrocephalus in young children follows that of the seasonal cerebro-spinal meningitis (CSM) by few weeks. The age group affected by post-meningetic hydrocephalus was that below two years. Children of this age group were not included in the national vaccination ...

  6. Observed seasonal and intraseasonal variability of the East India Coastal Current on the continental slope.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mukherjee, A; Shankar, D.; Fernando, V.; Amol, P.; Aparna, S.G.; Fernandes, R.; Michael, G.S.; Khalap, S.T.; Satelkar, N.P.; Agarvadekar, Y.; Gaonkar, M.G.; Tari, A; Kankonkar, A; Vernekar, S.

    of the northern bay (89 Degree E, 19 Degree N; referred to as being located at Paradip). The data were collected during May 2009 to March 2013 and the observations show that the seasonal cycle, which includes the annual cycle, the semi-annual cycle, and a peak...

  7. Representativeness and seasonality of major ion records derived from NEEM firn cores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Gfeller

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal and annual representativeness of ionic aerosol proxies (among others, calcium, sodium, ammonium and nitrate in various firn cores in the vicinity of the NEEM drill site in northwest Greenland have been assessed. Seasonal representativeness is very high as one core explains more than 60% of the variability within the area. The inter-annual representativeness, however, can be substantially lower (depending on the species making replicate coring indispensable to derive the atmospheric variability of aerosol species. A single core at the NEEM site records only 30% of the inter-annual atmospheric variability in some species, while five replicate cores are already needed to cover approximately 70% of the inter-annual atmospheric variability in all species. The spatial representativeness is very high within 60 cm, rapidly decorrelates within 10 m but does not diminish further within 3 km. We attribute this to wind reworking of the snow pack leading to sastrugi formation. Due to the high resolution and seasonal representativeness of the records we can derive accurate seasonalities of the measured species for modern (AD 1990–2010 times as well as for pre-industrial (AD 1623–1750 times. Sodium and calcium show similar seasonality (peaking in February and March respectively for modern and pre-industrial times, whereas ammonium and nitrate are influenced by anthropogenic activities. Nitrate and ammonium both peak in May during modern times, whereas during pre-industrial times ammonium peaked during July–August and nitrate during June–July.

  8. Seasonal Differences in the Day-of-the-Week Pattern of Suicide in Queensland, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Chi-kin; De Leo, Diego

    2013-01-01

    Various temporal patterns of suicide events, according to time of day, day of week, month and season, have been identified. However, whether different dimensions of time interact has not been investigated. Using suicide data from Queensland, Australia, this study aims to verify if there is an interaction effect between seasonal and day-of-the-week distribution. Computerized suicide data from the Queensland Suicide Register for those aged 15+ years were analyzed according to date of death, age, sex and geographic location for the period 1996–2007. To examine seasonal differences in day-of-the-week pattern of suicide, Poisson regressions were used. A total of 6,555 suicides were recorded over the whole study period. Regardless of the season, male residents of Brisbane had a significantly marked day-of-the-week pattern of suicide, with higher rates between Mondays and Thursdays. When seasonal differences were considered, male residents in Brisbane showed a Monday peak in summer and a wave-shape pattern with a peak on Thursday and a nadir on Saturdays in winter. Whilst males have distinctive peaks in terms of days of the week for summer and winter, females do not show similar patterns. PMID:23880724

  9. Added effect of heat wave on mortality in Seoul, Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Won Kyung; Lee, Hye Ah; Lim, Youn Hee; Park, Hyesook

    2016-05-01

    A heat wave could increase mortality owing to high temperature. However, little is known about the added (duration) effect of heat wave from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and different effect sizes depending on the definition of heat waves and models. A distributed lag non-linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the added effect of heat wave on mortality after adjusting for long-term and intra-seasonal trends and apparent temperature. We evaluated the cumulative relative risk of the added wave effect on mortality on lag days 0-30. The models were constructed using nine definitions of heat wave and two relationships (cubic spline and linear threshold model) between temperature and mortality to leave out the high temperature effect. Further, we performed sensitivity analysis to evaluate the changes in the effect of heat wave on mortality according to the different degrees of freedom for time trend and cubic spline of temperature. We found that heat wave had the added effect from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and it was considerable in the aspect of cumulative risk because of the lagged influence. When heat wave was defined with a threshold of 98th percentile temperature and ≥2, 3, and 4 consecutive days, mortality increased by 14.8 % (7.5-22.6, 95 % confidence interval (CI)), 18.1 % (10.8-26.0, 95 % CI), 18.1 % (10.7-25.9, 95 % CI), respectively, in cubic spline model. When it came to the definitions of 90th and 95th percentile, the risk increase in mortality declined to 3.7-5.8 % and 8.6-11.3 %, respectively. This effect was robust to the flexibility of the model for temperature and time trend, while the definitions of a heat wave were critical in estimating its relationship with mortality. This finding could help deepen our understanding and quantifying of the relationship between heat wave and mortality and select an appropriate definition of heat wave and temperature model in the future

  10. T198. A SCHIZOPHRENIA-LIKE BIRTH SEASONALITY AMONG MATHEMATICIANS AND AN OPPOSITE SEASONALITY AMONG BIOLOGISTS: MORE EVIDENCE IMPLICATING BIMODAL RHYTHMS OF GENERAL BIRTHS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzullo, Giovanni

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Background Based on early-20th century births, a pre-electric illumination time of comparatively normal human exposure to sunlight, studies of schizophrenia (SCZ) found a birth seasonality with two opposite effects: a SCZ-liability peak among subjects born around late-February and an equally significant SCZ-resistance peak among those born six months later, around late-August. We previously investigated this rhythm in connection with a sunlight-dependent bimodal rhythm of general births that, prior to the full advent of electric lighting (but not later), occurred ubiquitously in non-equatorial parts of the world. We found that the SCZ-liability peak coincided with a first, Feb-Mar peak of general-population births (the GP1) while the SCZ-resistance peak coincided with a second, Aug-Sep peak of those births (the GP2). Moreover, in a study of hand and visual-field preferences among professional baseball players, we found the SCZ-liability, GP1-coincident seasonality among players with preferences denoting cerebral asymmetry “deficits” (CADs) and the SCZ-resistance, GP2-coincident seasonality among those with preferences denoting cerebral asymmetry “excesses.” Also, in a study suggested by associations of CADs with artistic abilities, we found the SCZ-liability, GP1-coincident seasonality among groups representing visual, performing and literary art “creators” (VPL-Artists) and the SCZ-resistance, GP2-coincident seasonality among groups representing art critics, historians, curators and other art “observers” (Para-Artists). Together, these findings suggested, as one possibility (but see later), that the SCZ-liability, CAD effects and artistic abilities could all three represent traits genetically or otherwise selected into the GP1 excess population of newborns and out of the GP2 population. The present study of “scientists” was initially aimed at the purported arts/science antithesis. Methods Birth seasonalities were examined among early

  11. Gender-Specific Differences in Baseline, Peak, and Delta Serum Creatinine: The NACSELD Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Leary, Jacqueline G; Wong, Florence; Reddy, K Rajender; Garcia-Tsao, Guadalupe; Kamath, Patrick S; Biggins, Scott W; Fallon, Michael B; Subramanian, Ram M; Maliakkal, B; Thacker, Leroy; Bajaj, Jasmohan S

    2017-03-01

    Women have lower serum creatinine values than men for similar renal function. We aimed to determine the differential effect of baseline, peak, and delta creatinine between genders on outcomes in infected hospitalized cirrhotic patients. North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease is a 15-center consortium of tertiary care hepatology centers prospectively enrolling infected cirrhotic inpatients. Baseline, peak, and delta creatinine during hospitalization were compared between genders, and their impact on overall survival, transplant-free survival, probability of transplantation, and need for renal replacement therapy (RRT) was analyzed. In total, 532 patients with cirrhosis (males = 59% median admission MELD = 20) had significantly lower median baseline (1.07 vs. 1.30 mg/dL, p creatinine (1.47 vs. 1.59 mg/dL, p = 0.024) in women than men during hospitalization for an infection, but both genders had similar delta creatinine levels (0.30 vs. 0.30 mg/dL, p = 0.957). Thirty-day mortality was similar between genders. RRT was not used more often in women (19 vs. 12%, p = 0.050), and women were 1.8 times more likely than men to receive RRT at the same creatinine (p = 0.028). Both peak and delta creatinine significantly predicted 6-month overall and transplant-free survival (p creatinine. Infected hospitalized cirrhotic women are significantly more likely than men to receive RRT at similar creatinine levels. Gender-specific differences in baseline, peak, and delta creatinine need further investigation to determine whether women need acute kidney injury treatment at lower creatinine thresholds than men.

  12. Excess winter mortality and cold temperatures in a subtropical city, Guangzhou, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Quan Ou

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A significant increase in mortality was observed during cold winters in many temperate regions. However, there is a lack of evidence from tropical and subtropical regions, and the influence of ambient temperatures on seasonal variation of mortality was not well documented. METHODS: This study included 213,737 registered deaths from January 2003 to December 2011 in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in Southern China. Excess winter mortality was calculated by the excess percentage of monthly mortality in winters over that of non-winter months. A generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was applied to analyze the association between monthly mean temperature and mortality, after controlling for other meteorological measures and air pollution. RESULTS: The mortality rate in the winter was 26% higher than the average rate in other seasons. On average, there were 1,848 excess winter deaths annually, with around half (52% from cardiovascular diseases and a quarter (24% from respiratory diseases. Excess winter mortality was higher in the elderly, females and those with low education level than the young, males and those with high education level, respectively. A much larger winter increase was observed in out-of-hospital mortality compared to in-hospital mortality (45% vs. 17%. We found a significant negative correlation of annual excess winter mortality with average winter temperature (rs=-0.738, P=0.037, but not with air pollution levels. A 1 °C decrease in monthly mean temperature was associated with an increase of 1.38% (95% CI:0.34%-2.40% and 0.88% (95% CI:0.11%-1.64% in monthly mortality at lags of 0-1 month, respectively. CONCLUSION: Similar to temperate regions, a subtropical city Guangzhou showed a clear seasonal pattern in mortality, with a sharper spike in winter. Our results highlight the role of cold temperature on the winter mortality even in warm climate. Precautionary measures should be strengthened to mitigate

  13. Is earthquake rate in south Iceland modified by seasonal loading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonsson, S.; Aoki, Y.; Drouin, V.

    2017-12-01

    Several temporarily varying processes have the potential of modifying the rate of earthquakes in the south Iceland seismic zone, one of the two most active seismic zones in Iceland. These include solid earth tides, seasonal meteorological effects and influence from passing weather systems, and variations in snow and glacier loads. In this study we investigate the influence these processes may have on crustal stresses and stressing rates in the seismic zone and assess whether they appear to be influencing the earthquake rate. While historical earthquakes in the south Iceland have preferentially occurred in early summer, this tendency is less clear for small earthquakes. The local earthquake catalogue (going back to 1991, magnitude of completeness M6+ earthquakes, which occurred in June 2000 and May 2008. Standard Reasenberg earthquake declustering or more involved model independent stochastic declustering algorithms are not capable of fully eliminating the aftershocks from the catalogue. We therefore inspected the catalogue for the time period before 2000 and it shows limited seasonal tendency in earthquake occurrence. Our preliminary results show no clear correlation between earthquake rates and short-term stressing variations induced from solid earth tides or passing storms. Seasonal meteorological effects also appear to be too small to influence the earthquake activity. Snow and glacier load variations induce significant vertical motions in the area with peak loading occurring in Spring (April-May) and maximum unloading in Fall (Sept.-Oct.). Early summer occurrence of historical earthquakes therefore correlates with early unloading rather than with the peak unloading or unloading rate, which appears to indicate limited influence of this seasonal process on the earthquake activity.

  14. PolyaPeak: Detecting Transcription Factor Binding Sites from ChIP-seq Using Peak Shape Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hao; Ji, Hongkai

    2014-01-01

    ChIP-seq is a powerful technology for detecting genomic regions where a protein of interest interacts with DNA. ChIP-seq data for mapping transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs) have a characteristic pattern: around each binding site, sequence reads aligned to the forward and reverse strands of the reference genome form two separate peaks shifted away from each other, and the true binding site is located in between these two peaks. While it has been shown previously that the accuracy and resolution of binding site detection can be improved by modeling the pattern, efficient methods are unavailable to fully utilize that information in TFBS detection procedure. We present PolyaPeak, a new method to improve TFBS detection by incorporating the peak shape information. PolyaPeak describes peak shapes using a flexible Pólya model. The shapes are automatically learnt from the data using Minorization-Maximization (MM) algorithm, then integrated with the read count information via a hierarchical model to distinguish true binding sites from background noises. Extensive real data analyses show that PolyaPeak is capable of robustly improving TFBS detection compared with existing methods. An R package is freely available. PMID:24608116

  15. The peak of oil production-Timings and market recognition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almeida, Pedro de; Silva, Pedro D.

    2009-01-01

    Energy is essential for present societies. In particular, transportation systems depend on petroleum-based fuels. That world oil production is set to pass a peak is now a reasonably accepted concept, although its date is far from consensual. In this work, we analyze the true expectations of the oil market participants about the future availability of this fundamental energy source. We study the evolution through time of the curves of crude oil futures prices, and we conclude that the market participants, among them the crude oil producers, already expect a near-term peak of oil production. This agrees with many technical predictions for the date of peak production, including our own, that point to peak dates around the end of the present decade. If this scenario is confirmed, it can cause serious social and economical problems because societies will have little time to perform the necessary adjustments

  16. Reducing Electricity Demand Peaks by Scheduling Home Appliances Usage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rossello Busquet, Ana; Kardaras, Georgios; Iversen, Villy Bæk

    2011-01-01

    Nowadays there is a tendency to consume electricity during the same period of the day leading to demand peaks. Regular energy consumption habits lead to demand peaks at specific temporal intervals, because users consume power at the same time. In order to avoid demand peaks, users’ appliances...... should consume electricity in a more temporarily distributed way. A new methodology to schedule the usage of home appliances is proposed and analyzed in this paper. The main concept behind this approach is the aggregation of home appliances into priority classes and the definition of a maximum power...... consumption limit, which is not allowed to be exceeded during peak hours. The scenario simulated describes a modern household, where the electrical devices are classified in low and high priority groups. The high priority devices are always granted power in order to operate without temporal restrictions...

  17. Advancements of ultra-high peak power laser diode arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, D.; Thiagarajan, P.; Goings, J.; Caliva, B.; Smith, S.; Walker, R.

    2018-02-01

    Enhancements of laser diode epitaxy in conjunction with process and packaging improvements have led to the availability of 1cm bars capable of over 500W peak power at near-infrared wavelengths (770nm to 1100nm). Advances in cooler design allow for multi-bar stacks with bar-to-bar pitches as low as 350μm and a scalable package architecture enabled a single diode assembly with total peak powers of over 1MegaWatt of peak power. With the addition of micro-optics, overall array brightness greater than 10kW/cm2 was achieved. Performance metrics of barbased diode lasers specifically engineered for high peak power and high brightness at wavelengths and pulse conditions commonly used to pump a variety of fiber and solid-state materials are presented.

  18. Improving EEG signal peak detection using feature weight learning ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Asrul Adam

    4 School of Psychology and Counseling, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane 4000, Australia. 5 QIMR ... The groups of Acir et al .... difference between the peak and the floating mean, which is ..... Thus, the individual features were.

  19. Energy and public health: the challenge of peak petroleum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frumkin, Howard; Hess, Jeremy; Vindigni, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    Petroleum is a unique and essential energy source, used as the principal fuel for transportation, in producing many chemicals, and for numerous other purposes. Global petroleum production is expected to reach a maximum in the near future and to decline thereafter, a phenomenon known as "peak petroleum." This article reviews petroleum geology and uses, describes the phenomenon of peak petroleum, and reviews the scientific literature on the timing of this transition. It then discusses how peak petroleum may affect public health and health care, by reference to four areas: medical supplies and equipment, transportation, energy generation, and food production. Finally, it suggests strategies for anticipating and preparing for peak petroleum, both general public health preparedness strategies and actions specific to the four expected health system impacts.

  20. OECD : Euroopa peaks laenuraha odava hoidma / Sirje Rank

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Rank, Sirje, 1966-

    2002-01-01

    USA majanduse kiire toibumine võib varsti tuua laenuintresside tõusu, Euroopa Keskpank peaks vähemalt aasta lõpuni ootama ja laskma kasvul juurduda. Diagramm: OECD tõstis majanduskasvu prognoosi. Maksukoormus