Seasonal mortality variations of cardiovascular, respiratory and malignant diseases in the City of Belgrade

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Stanišić-Stojić Svetlana

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to examine seasonal variations in mortality resulting from cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and cancer, as well as to provide a review of environmental factors underlying such phenomenon. The herein presented study was conducted on the territory of Belgrade based on the data on daily mortality rates obtained from the Institute of Public Health in Belgrade for the period 2009-2014, as well as the data on annual mortality rates provided by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia for the period 2000-2014. The analysis of mortality variations was performed by the use of Theil-Sen method, smooth trend method and cubic spline interpolation, whereas desriptive tools, such as winter/summer ratio and dissimilarity index, were used to examine the seasonal pattern. According to the Institute of Public Health, over 113430 deaths were registered in Belgrade area for the period 2009-2014, out of which 53.25% is attributed to cardiovascular diseases, 4.01% to respiratory diseases and 27.50% to cancer. The annual mortality rates caused by cardiovascular diseases and cancer on the territory of Belgrade are among the highest ranking in Europe. The leading causes of death in the observed period included: cardiomyopathy, heart attack and stroke with accompanying complications, breast cancer in women, prostate and colorectal cancer in men, lung and bronchus cancer for both genders, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Cardiovascular and respiratory mortality rates are significantly higher among people aged 65 and over, whereas more than one third of deaths caused by cancer is observed among younger people aged between 45 and 64 years. Research results show that seasonal variations were most pronounced in mortality resulting from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, with highest mortality rates recorded in February and March and lowest during the summer season. Also, the number of deaths due to

Hourly peak concentration measuring the PM2.5-mortality association: Results from six cities in the Pearl River Delta study

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Lin, Hualiang; Ratnapradipa, Kendra; Wang, Xiaojie; Zhang, Yonghui; Xu, Yanjun; Yao, Zhenjiang; Dong, Guanghui; Liu, Tao; Clark, Jessica; Dick, Rebecca; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xing; Qian, Zhengmin (Min); Ma, Wenjun

2017-07-01

Compared with daily mean concentration of air pollution, hourly peak concentration may be more directly relevant to the acute health effects due to the high concentration levels, however, few have analyzed the acute mortality effects of hourly peak levels of air pollution. We examined the associations of hourly peak concentration of fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) with mortality in six cities in Pearl River Delta, China. We used generalized additive Poisson models to examine the associations with adjustment for potential confounders in each city. We further applied random-effects meta-analyses to estimate the regional overall effects. We further estimated the mortality burden attributable to hourly peak and daily mean PM2.5. We observed significant associations between hourly peak PM2.5 and mortality. Each 10 μg/m3 increase in 4-day averaged (lag03) hourly peak PM2.5 corresponded to a 0.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7%, 1.1%] increase in total mortality, 1.2% (95% CI: 1.0%, 1.5%) in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.7% (95% CI: 0.2%, 1.1%) in respiratory mortality. We observed a greater mortality burden using hourly peak PM2.5 than daily mean PM2.5, with an estimated 12915 (95% CI: 9922, 15949) premature deaths attributable to hourly peak PM2.5, and 7951 (95% CI: 5067, 10890) to daily mean PM2.5 in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region during the study period. This study suggests that hourly peak PM2.5 might be one important risk factor of mortality in PRD region of China; the finding provides important information for future air pollution management and epidemiological studies.

Peak season plant activity shift towards spring is reflected by increasing carbon uptake by extratropical ecosystems.

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Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Ooi, Ying W

2018-05-01

Climate change is lengthening the growing season of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical terrestrial ecosystems, but little is known regarding the timing and dynamics of the peak season of plant activity. Here, we use 34-year satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) observations and atmospheric CO 2 concentration and δ 13 C isotope measurements at Point Barrow (Alaska, USA, 71°N) to study the dynamics of the peak of season (POS) of plant activity. Averaged across extratropical (>23°N) non-evergreen-dominated pixels, NDVI data show that the POS has advanced by 1.2 ± 0.6 days per decade in response to the spring-ward shifts of the start (1.0 ± 0.8 days per decade) and end (1.5 ± 1.0 days per decade) of peak activity, and the earlier onset of the start of growing season (1.4 ± 0.8 days per decade), while POS maximum NDVI value increased by 7.8 ± 1.8% for 1982-2015. Similarly, the peak day of carbon uptake, based on calculations from atmospheric CO 2 concentration and δ 13 C data, is advancing by 2.5 ± 2.6 and 4.3 ± 2.9 days per decade, respectively. POS maximum NDVI value shows strong negative relationships (p POS days. Given that the maximum solar irradiance and day length occur before the average POS day, the earlier occurrence of peak plant activity results in increased plant productivity. Both the advancing POS day and increasing POS vegetation greenness are consistent with the shifting peak productivity towards spring and the increasing annual maximum values of gross and net ecosystem productivity simulated by coupled Earth system models. Our results further indicate that the decline in autumn NDVI is contributing the most to the overall browning of the northern high latitudes (>50°N) since 2011. The spring-ward shift of peak season plant activity is expected to disrupt the synchrony of biotic interaction and exert strong biophysical feedbacks on climate by modifying the surface albedo and energy budget. © 2017

Seasonal variation in the acute effect of particulate air pollution on mortality in the China Air Pollution and Health Effects Study (CAPES)

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Chen, Renjie; Peng, Roger D.; Meng, Xia; Zhou, Zhijun; Chen, Bingheng; Kan, Haidong

2013-01-01

Epidemiological findings concerning the seasonal variation in the acute effect of particulate matter (PM) are inconsistent. We investigated the seasonality in the association between PM with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 μm (PM10) and daily mortality in 17 Chinese cities. We fitted the “main” time-series model after adjustment for time-varying confounders using smooth functions with natural splines. We established a “seasonal” model to obtain the season-specific effect estimates of PM10, and a “harmonic” model to show the seasonal pattern that allows PM10 effects to vary smoothly with the day in a year. At the national level, a 10 μg/m3 increase in the two-day moving average concentrations (lag 01) of PM10 was associated with 0.45% [95% posterior interval (PI), 0.15% to 0.76%], 0.17% (95% PI, −0.09% to 0.43%), 0.55% (95% PI, 0.15% to 0.96%) and 0.25% (95%PI, −0.05% to 0.56%) increases in total mortality for winter, spring, summer and fall, respectively. For the smoothly-varying plots of seasonality, we identified a two-peak pattern in winter and summer. The observed seasonal pattern was generally insensitive to model specifications. Our analyses suggest that the acute effect of particulate air pollution could vary by seasons with the largest effect in winter and summer in China. To our knowledge, this is the first multicity study in developing countries to analyze the seasonal variations of PM-related health effects. PMID:23500824

Seasonal analysis of the short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in Northeast Asia.

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Kim, Satbyul Estella; Honda, Yasushi; Hashizume, Masahiro; Kan, Haidong; Lim, Youn-Hee; Lee, Hyewon; Kim, Clara Tammy; Yi, Seung-Muk; Kim, Ho

2017-01-15

The constituents and concentrations of pollutants, individual exposures, and biologic responses to air pollution may vary by season and meteorological conditions. However, evidence regarding seasonality of the acute effects of air pollution on mortality is limited and inconsistent. Herein, we examined seasonal patterns in the short-term associations of particulate matter (PM) smaller than 10μm (PM 10 ) with daily mortality in 29 cities of three northeast Asian countries. Stratified time-series models were used to determine whether season altered the effect of PM 10 on mortality. This effect was first quantified within each season and at each location using a time-series model, after which city-specific estimates were pooled using a hierarchical Bayesian model. In all data sets, 3,675,348 non-accidental deaths were registered from 1993 to 2009. In Japan, a 10μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 was significantly associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.03%, 0.8%) in spring and 0.42% (0.02%, 0.82%) in fall. In South Korea, a 10μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 was significantly associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.51% (0.01%, 1.01%) in summer and 0.45% (0.03%, 0.87%) in fall, in cardiovascular disease mortality of 0.96% (0.29%, 1.63%) in fall, and in respiratory disease mortality of 1.57% (0.40%, 2.75%) in fall. In China, a 10μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 was associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.33% (0.01%, 0.66%) in summer and 0.41% (0.09%, 0.73%) in winter, in cardiovascular disease mortality of 0.41% (0.08%, 0.74%) in spring and 0.33% (0.02%, 0.64%) in winter, and in respiratory diseases mortality of 0.78% (0.27%, 1.30%) in winter. Our analyses suggest that the acute effect of particulate air pollution could vary seasonally and geographically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal variation and trends in stroke hospitalizations and mortality in a South American community hospital.

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Díaz, Alejandro; Gerschcovich, Eliana Roldan; Díaz, Adriana A; Antía, Fabiana; Gonorazky, Sergio

2013-10-01

Numerous studies have reported the presence of temporal variations in biological processes. Seasonal variation (SV) in stroke has been widely studied, but little data have been published on this phenomenon in the Southern Hemisphere, and there have been no studies reported from Argentina. The goals of the present study were to describe the SV of admissions and deaths for stroke and examine trends in stroke morbidity and mortality over a 3-year period in a community hospital in Argentina. Hospital discharge reports from the electronic database of vital statistics between 1999 and 2001 were examined retrospectively. Patients who had a main discharge diagnosis of stroke (ischemic or hemorrhagic) or cerebrovascular accident (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes 431, 432, 434, and 436) were selected. The study sample included 1382 hospitalizations by stroke (3.5% of all admissions). In-hospital mortality demonstrated a winter peak (25.5% vs 17% in summer; P = .001). The crude seasonal stroke attack rate (ischemic and hemorrhagic) was highest in winter (164 per 100,000 population; 95% CI, 159-169 per 100,000) and lowest in summer (124 per 100,000; 95% CI, 120-127 per 100,000; P = .008). Stroke admissions followed a seasonal pattern, with a winter-spring predominance (P = .008). Our data indicate a clear SV in stroke deaths and admissions in this region of Argentina. The existence of SV in stroke raises a different hypothesis about the rationale of HF admissions and provides information for the organization of care and resource allocation. Copyright © 2013 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The phase differences of the interdecadal variabilities of tropical cyclone activity in the peak and late seasons over the western North Pacific

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Fan, Tingting; Xu, Shibin; Huang, Fei; Zhao, Jinping

2018-04-01

This study compares the interdecadal variations in tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the western North Pacific (WNP) basin during the peak season (July-September) and late season (October-December) of 1955-2014 and explores the possible physical mechanisms behind the variations. Both the peak- and late-season tropical storm (TS) days show distinct interdecadal variations, while the late-season TS days lead the peak-season TS days by approximately 4 years on an interdecadal time scale. The late-season TC activity is related to the east-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the equatorial Pacific. The westerly winds induced by the SST gradient can reduce the vertical wind shear and increase the low-level vorticity, which favors TC genesis over the TC genesis region. The peak-season TC activity appears to relate to the SST gradient between the Indian Ocean and the Central Pacific. The westerly wind induced by the SST gradient can reduce the vertical wind shear and increase the mid-level relative humidity, thereby enhancing the TC activity. The full picture of the interdecadal variation in the WNP TC activity during the peak and late seasons revealed in this study provides a new perspective on the seasonal TC forecasts and future projections.

Seasonal spring peaks of suicide in victims with and without prior history of hospitalization for mood disorders.

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Postolache, Teodor T; Mortensen, Preben B; Tonelli, Leonardo H; Jiao, Xiaolong; Frangakis, Constantin; Soriano, Joseph J; Qin, Ping

2010-02-01

Seasonal spring peaks of suicide are highly replicated, but their origin is poorly understood. As the peak of suicide in spring could be a consequence of decompensation of mood disorders in spring, we hypothesized that prior history of mood disorders is predictively associated with suicide in spring. We analyzed the monthly rates of suicide based upon all 37,987 suicide cases in the Danish Cause of Death Registry from 1970 to 2001. History of mood disorder was obtained from the Danish Psychiatric Central Register and socioeconomical data from the Integrated Database for Labour Market Research. The monthly rate ratio of suicide relative to December was estimated using a Poisson regression. Seasonality of suicide between individuals with versus without hospitalization for mood disorders was compared using conditional logistic regression analyses with adjustment for income, marital status, place of residence, and method of suicide. A statistically significant spring peak in suicide was observed in both groups. A history of mood disorders was associated with an increased risk of suicide in spring (for males: RR=1.18, 95% CI 1.07-1.31; for females: RR=1.20, 95% CI 1.10-1.32). History of axis II disorders was not analyzed. Danish socioeconomical realities have only limited generalizability. The results support the need to further investigate if exacerbation of mood disorders in spring triggers seasonal peaks of suicide. Identifying triggers for seasonal spring peaks in suicide may lead to uncovering novel risk factors and therapeutic targets for suicide prevention. 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal variations in house dust mite influence the circadian peak expiratory flow amplitude

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Postma, DS; vanderHeide, S; deReus, DM; Koeter, GH; vanAalderen, WMC; Meijer, G.

1996-01-01

The aim of the study was to investigate whether seasonal differences in house dust mite (HDM) allergen exposure influence the circadian peak expiratory flow (PEF) amplitude in asthmatic children. Asthmatic children (n = 25) with a solitary allergy to HDM were studied in spring and in autumn. All

Four Weeks of Off-Season Training Improves Peak Oxygen Consumption in Female Field Hockey Players

OpenAIRE

Lindsey T. Funch; Erik Lind; Larissa True; Deborah Van Langen; John T. Foley; James F. Hokanson

2017-01-01

The purpose of the study was to examine the changes in peak oxygen consumption ( V ˙O2peak) and running economy (RE) following four-weeks of high intensity training and concurrent strength and conditioning during the off-season in collegiate female field hockey players. Fourteen female student-athletes (age 19.29 ± 0.91 years) were divided into two training groups, matched from baseline V ˙O2peak: High Intensity Training (HITrun; n = 8) and High Intensity Interval Training (HIIT; ...

Magnitudes and timing of seasonal peak snowpack water equivalents in Arizona: A preliminary study of the possible effects of recent climatic change

Science.gov (United States)

Peter F. Ffolliott; Gerald J. Gottfried

2010-01-01

Field measurements and computer-based predictions suggest that the magnitudes of seasonal peak snowpack water equivalents are becoming less and the timing of these peaks is occurring earlier in the snowmelt-runoff season of the western United States. These changes in peak snowpack conditions have often been attributed to a warming of the regional climate. To determine...

Seasonal variation in short-term mortality after surgery for colorectal cancer?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, L H; Nielsen, H; Pedersen, L

2010-01-01

Comorbidity has a major impact on short-term and long-term survival of colorectal cancer (CRC) and many CRC patients suffer from comorbidities. Mortality rates for comorbidities like cardio-respiratory diseases exhibit distinct seasonal variations with highest rates in the winter. Therefore, we...

Latitudinal variation in seasonal activity and mortality in ratsnakes (Elaphe obsoleta).

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Sperry, Jinelle H; Blouin-Demers, Gabriel; Carfagno, Gerardo L F; Weatherhead, Patrick J

2010-06-01

The ecology of ectotherms should be particularly affected by latitude because so much of their biology is temperature dependent. Current latitudinal patterns should also be informative about how ectotherms will have to modify their behavior in response to climate change. We used data from a total of 175 adult black ratsnakes (Elaphe obsoleta) radio-tracked in Ontario, Illinois, and Texas, a latitudinal distance of >1500 km, to test predictions about how seasonal patterns of activity and mortality should vary with latitude. Despite pronounced differences in temperatures among study locations, and despite ratsnakes in Texas not hibernating and switching from diurnal to nocturnal activity in the summer, seasonal patterns of snake activity were remarkably similar during the months that snakes in all populations were active. Rather than being a function of temperature, activity may be driven by the timing of reproduction, which appears similar among populations. Contrary to the prediction that mortality should be highest in the most active population, overall mortality did not follow a clinal pattern. Winter mortality did increase with latitude, however, consistent with temperature limiting the northern distribution of ratsnakes. This result was opposite that found in the only previous study of latitudinal variation in winter mortality in reptiles, which may be a consequence of whether or not the animals exhibit true hibernation. Collectively, these results suggest that, at least in the northern part of their range, ratsnakes should be able to adjust easily to, and may benefit from, a warmer climate, although climate-based changes to the snakes' prey or habitat, for example, could alter that prediction.

The effects of season and meteorology on human mortality in tropical climates: a systematic review.

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Burkart, Katrin; Khan, Md Mobarak Hossain; Schneider, Alexandra; Breitner, Susanne; Langner, Marcel; Krämer, Alexander; Endlicher, Wilfried

2014-07-01

Research in the field of atmospheric science and epidemiology has long recognized the health effects of seasonal and meteorological conditions. However, little scientific knowledge exists to date about the impacts of atmospheric parameters on human mortality in tropical regions. Working within the scope of this systematic review, this investigation conducted a literature search using different databases; original research articles were chosen according to pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Both seasonal and meteorological effects were considered. The findings suggest that high amounts of rainfall and increasing temperatures cause a seasonal excess in infectious disease mortality and are therefore relevant in regions and populations in which such diseases are prevalent. On the contrary, moderately low and very high temperatures exercise an adverse effect on cardio-respiratory mortality and shape the mortality pattern in areas and sub-groups in which these diseases are dominant. Atmospheric effects were subject to population-specific factors such as age and socio-economic status and differed between urban and rural areas. The consequences of climate change as well as environmental, epidemiological and social change (e.g., emerging non-communicable diseases, ageing of the population, urbanization) suggest a growing relevance of heat-related excess mortality in tropical regions. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The effects of dust–haze on mortality are modified by seasons and individual characteristics in Guangzhou, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Tao; Zhang, Yong Hui; Xu, Yan Jun; Lin, Hua Liang; Xu, Xiao Jun; Luo, Yuan; Xiao, JianPeng; Zeng, Wei Lin; Zhang, Wan Fang; Chu, Cordia; Keogh, Kandice; Rutherford, Shannon; Qian, Zhengmin; Du, Yao Dong

2014-01-01

This study aimed to investigate the effects of dust–haze on mortality and to estimate the seasonal and individual-specific modification effects in Guangzhou, China. Mortality, air pollution and meteorological data were collected for 2006–2011. A dust–haze day was defined as daily visibility 10 . We concluded that dust–haze significantly increased mortality risk in Guangzhou, China, and this effect appears to be dominated by particulate mass and modified by season and individual-specific factors. - Highlights: • We assessed the health impact of dust–haze in a megacity of southern China. • A dust–haze was defined according to visibility and relative humidity. • Dust–haze increased mortality risk, which may be dominated by particulate mass. • The dust–haze effects were modified by season and individual-specific factors. - This study extends our understanding of the health impact of dust–haze in southern China, and provides local evidence for health to advocate for improved air emissions control and strategies to reduce population exposure

Seasonal survival rates and causes of mortality of Little Owls in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorup, Kasper; Pedersen, Dorthe; Sunde, Peter

2013-01-01

Survival rate is an essential component of population dynamics; therefore, identification of variation in mortality rates and the factors that influence them might be of key importance in understanding why populations increase or decrease. In Denmark, the Little Owl Athene noctua, a species...... the causes of current survival rates, we estimated age- and season-specific survival rates and causes of mortality in Danish Little Owls on the basis of ringed birds 1920–2002, radio tagged adult and juveniles 2005–2008 and nest surveys 2006–2008. We estimate that 32 % of all eggs fledge and survive to 2...... the breeding season. In radio-tagged adults and fledged juveniles, accidents in buildings and other human infrastructures were responsible for two-thirds of all fatalities. Anthropogenic habitats currently comprise the nesting and roosting habitats for the last Danish Little Owls. The accidental deaths...

The effects of dust–haze on mortality are modified by seasons and individual characteristics in Guangzhou, China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Tao [Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Environment and Health, Guangdong Provincial Key Medical Discipline of Twelfth Five-Year Plan, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Zhang, Yong Hui [Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Xu, Yan Jun [Institute of Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Prevention and Control, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Lin, Hua Liang [Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Environment and Health, Guangdong Provincial Key Medical Discipline of Twelfth Five-Year Plan, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Xu, Xiao Jun [Institute of Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Prevention and Control, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Luo, Yuan; Xiao, JianPeng; Zeng, Wei Lin [Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Environment and Health, Guangdong Provincial Key Medical Discipline of Twelfth Five-Year Plan, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Zhang, Wan Fang [Liwan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510176 (China); Chu, Cordia; Keogh, Kandice; Rutherford, Shannon [Griffith University, Brisbane 4111 (Australia); Qian, Zhengmin [Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, MO 63104 (United States); Du, Yao Dong [Climate Center of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510080 (China); others, and

2014-04-01

This study aimed to investigate the effects of dust–haze on mortality and to estimate the seasonal and individual-specific modification effects in Guangzhou, China. Mortality, air pollution and meteorological data were collected for 2006–2011. A dust–haze day was defined as daily visibility <10 km with relative humidity <90%. This definition was further divided into light (8–10 km), medium (5–8 km) and heavy dust–haze (<5 km). A distributed lag linear model (DLM) was employed. Light, medium and heavy dust–haze days were associated with increased mortality of 3.4%, 6.8% and 10.4% respectively, at a lag of 0–6 days. This effect was more pronounced during the cold season, for cardiovascular mortality (CVD), respiratory mortality (RESP), in males and people ≥60years. These effects became insignificant after adjustment for PM{sub 10}. We concluded that dust–haze significantly increased mortality risk in Guangzhou, China, and this effect appears to be dominated by particulate mass and modified by season and individual-specific factors. - Highlights: • We assessed the health impact of dust–haze in a megacity of southern China. • A dust–haze was defined according to visibility and relative humidity. • Dust–haze increased mortality risk, which may be dominated by particulate mass. • The dust–haze effects were modified by season and individual-specific factors. - This study extends our understanding of the health impact of dust–haze in southern China, and provides local evidence for health to advocate for improved air emissions control and strategies to reduce population exposure.

Mortality Attributable to Seasonal Influenza A and B Infections in Thailand, 2005–2009: A Longitudinal Study

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Ben S.; Kotirum, Surachai; Kulpeng, Wantanee; Praditsitthikorn, Naiyana; Chittaganpitch, Malinee; Limmathurotsakul, Direk; Day, Nicholas P. J.; Coker, Richard; Teerawattananon, Yot; Meeyai, Aronrag

2015-01-01

Influenza epidemiology differs substantially in tropical and temperate zones, but estimates of seasonal influenza mortality in developing countries in the tropics are lacking. We aimed to quantify mortality due to seasonal influenza in Thailand, a tropical middle-income country. Time series of polymerase chain reaction–confirmed influenza infections between 2005 and 2009 were constructed from a sentinel surveillance network. These were combined with influenza-like illness data to derive measures of influenza activity and relationships to mortality by using a Bayesian regression framework. We estimated 6.1 (95% credible interval: 0.5, 12.4) annual deaths per 100,000 population attributable to influenza A and B, predominantly in those aged ≥60 years, with the largest contribution from influenza A(H1N1) in 3 out of 4 years. For A(H3N2), the relationship between influenza activity and mortality varied over time. Influenza was associated with increases in deaths classified as resulting from respiratory disease (posterior probability of positive association, 99.8%), cancer (98.6%), renal disease (98.0%), and liver disease (99.2%). No association with circulatory disease mortality was found. Seasonal influenza infections are associated with substantial mortality in Thailand, but evidence for the strong relationship between influenza activity and circulatory disease mortality reported in temperate countries is lacking. PMID:25899091

Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

2018-02-01

Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

Four Weeks of Off-Season Training Improves Peak Oxygen Consumption in Female Field Hockey Players

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lindsey T. Funch

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to examine the changes in peak oxygen consumption ( V ˙O2peak and running economy (RE following four-weeks of high intensity training and concurrent strength and conditioning during the off-season in collegiate female field hockey players. Fourteen female student-athletes (age 19.29 ± 0.91 years were divided into two training groups, matched from baseline V ˙O2peak: High Intensity Training (HITrun; n = 8 and High Intensity Interval Training (HIIT; n = 6. Participants completed 12 training sessions. HITrun consisted of 30 min of high-intensity running, while HIIT consisted of a series of whole-body high intensity Tabata-style intervals (75–85% of age predicted maximum heart rate for a total of four minutes. In addition to the interval training, the off-season training included six resistance training sessions, three team practices, and concluded with a team scrimmage. V ˙O2peak was measured pre- and post-training to determine the effectiveness of the training program. A two-way mixed (group × time ANOVA showed a main effect of time with a statistically significant difference in V ˙O2peak from pre- to post-testing, F(1, 12 = 12.657, p = 0.004, partial η2 = 0.041. Average (±SD V ˙O2peak increased from 44.64 ± 3.74 to 47.35 ± 3.16 mL·kg−1·min−1 for HIIT group and increased from 45.39 ± 2.80 to 48.22 ± 2.42 mL·kg−1·min−1 for HITrun group. Given the similar improvement in aerobic power, coaches and training staff may find the time saving element of HIIT-type conditioning programs attractive.

Forecasting Cool Season Daily Peak Winds at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, Joe, III; Short, David; Roeder, William

2008-01-01

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) for planning operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The morning outlook for peak speeds also begins the warning decision process for gusts ^ 35 kt, ^ 50 kt, and ^ 60 kt from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated that peak wind speeds are a challenging parameter to forecast during the cool season (October-April). The 45 WS requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. The tool must only use data available by 1200 UTC to support the issue time of the Planning Forecasts. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network, surface observations from the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and CCAFS upper-air soundings from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created multiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence, the temperature inversion depth, strength, and wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft. Six synoptic patterns were identified: 1) surface high near or over FL, 2) surface high north or east of FL, 3) surface high south or west of FL, 4) surface front approaching FL, 5) surface front across central FL, and 6) surface front across south FL. The following six predictors were selected: 1) inversion depth, 2) inversion strength, 3) wind gust factor, 4) synoptic weather pattern, 5) occurrence of

Seasonal variation in cause-specific mortality: are there high-risk groups? 25-year follow-up of civil servants from the first Whitehall study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C.T.M. van Rossum (Caroline); M.J. Shipley; H. Hemingway; D.E. Grobbee (Diederick); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan); M.G. Marmot

2001-01-01

textabstractOBJECTIVES: To determine the seasonal effect on all-cause and cause-specific mortality and to identify high-risk groups. METHODS: A 25-year follow-up of 19,019 male civil servants aged 40-69 years. RESULTS: All-cause mortality was seasonal (ratio of highest mortality

Tree mortality from fire and bark beetles following early and late season prescribed fires in a Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest

Science.gov (United States)

Schwilk, Dylan W.; Knapp, Eric E.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Keeley, Jon E.; Caprio, Anthony C.

2006-01-01

Over the last century, fire exclusion in the forests of the Sierra Nevada has allowed surface fuels to accumulate and has led to increased tree density. Stand composition has also been altered as shade tolerant tree species crowd out shade intolerant species. To restore forest structure and reduce the risk of large, intense fires, managers have increasingly used prescription burning. Most fires prior to EuroAmerican settlement occurred during the late summer and early fall and most prescribed burning has taken place during the latter part of this period. Poor air quality and lack of suitable burn windows during the fall, however, have resulted in a need to conduct more prescription burning earlier in the season. Previous reports have suggested that burning during the time when trees are actively growing may increase mortality rates due to fine root damage and/or bark beetle activity. This study examines the effects of fire on tree mortality and bark beetle attacks under prescription burning during early and late season. Replicated early season burn, late season burn and unburned control plots were established in an old-growth mixed conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada that had not experienced a fire in over 120 years. Although prescribed burns resulted in significant mortality of particularly the smallest tree size classes, no difference between early and late season burns was detected. Direct mortality due to fire was associated with fire intensity. Secondary mortality due to bark beetles was not significantly correlated with fire intensity. The probability of bark beetle attack on pines did not differ between early and late season burns, while the probability of bark beetle attack on firs was greater following early season burns. Overall tree mortality appeared to be primarily the result of fire intensity rather than tree phenology at the time of the burns. Early season burns are generally conducted under higher fuel moisture conditions, leading to less fuel

Association of Peak Changes in Plasma Cystatin C and Creatinine with Mortality post Cardiac Surgery

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Meyeon; Shlipak, Michael G.; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Garg, Amit X.; Koyner, Jay L.; Coca, Steven G.; Parikh, Chirag R.

2015-01-01

Background Acute kidney injury is a risk factor for mortality in cardiac surgery patients. Plasma cystatin C and creatinine have different temporal profiles in the post-operative setting, but the associations of simultaneous changes in both filtration markers as compared to change in only one marker with prognosis following hospital discharge are not well described. Methods This is a longitudinal study of 1199 high-risk adult cardiac surgery patients in the TRIBE-AKI (Translational Research Investigating Biomarker Endpoints for Acute Kidney Injury) Consortium who survived hospitalization. We examined in-hospital peak changes of cystatin C and creatinine in the 3 days following cardiac surgery. We evaluated associations of these filtration markers with mortality, adjusting for demographics, operative characteristics, medical comorbidities, pre-operative estimated glomerular filtration rate, pre-operative urinary albumin to creatinine ratio, and site. Results During the first 3 days of hospitalization, nearly twice as many patients had a ≥ 25% rise in creatinine (30%) compared to a ≥ 25% peak rise in cystatin C (15%). Those with elevations in either cystatin C or creatinine had higher mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio cystatin C 1.83 (95% CI 1.4–2.37) and creatinine 1.90 (95% CI 1.32–2.72)) compared with persons who experienced a post-operative decrease in either filtration marker, respectively. Patients who had simultaneous elevations of ≥ 25% in both cystatin C and creatinine were at similar adjusted risk for 3 year mortality (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.03–3.1) as those with ≥ 25% increase in cystatin C alone (HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.09–4.47). Conclusions Elevations in creatinine post-operatively are more common than elevations in cystatin C. However, elevations in cystatin C appeared to be associated with higher risk of mortality after hospital discharge. PMID:26921980

Mortality Associated With Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza Among Pregnant and Nonpregnant Women of Childbearing Age in a High-HIV-Prevalence Setting-South Africa, 1999-2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Tempia, Stefano; Walaza, Sibongile; Cohen, Adam L; von Mollendorf, Claire; Moyes, Jocelyn; McAnerney, Johanna M; Cohen, Cheryl

2015-10-01

Information on the mortality burden associated with seasonal and pandemic influenza virus infection among pregnant women is scarce in most settings, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where pregnancy and maternal mortality rates as well as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence are elevated. We used an ecological study design to estimate the seasonal and A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza-associated mortality among pregnant and nonpregnant women of childbearing age (15-49 years) by HIV serostatus during 1999-2009 in South Africa. Mortality rates were expressed per 100 000 person-years. During 1999-2009, the estimated mean annual seasonal influenza-associated mortality rates were 12.6 (123 deaths) and 7.3 (914 deaths) among pregnant and nonpregnant women, respectively. Among pregnant women, the estimated mean annual seasonal influenza-associated mortality rates were 74.9 (109 deaths) among HIV-infected and 1.5 (14 deaths) among HIV-uninfected individuals. Among nonpregnant women, the estimated mean annual seasonal influenza-associated mortality rate was 41.2 (824 deaths) among HIV-infected and 0.9 (90 deaths) among HIV-uninfected individuals. Pregnant women experienced an increased risk of seasonal influenza-associated mortality compared with nonpregnant women (relative risk [RR], 2.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-3.9). In 2009, the estimated influenza A(H1N1)pdm09-associated mortality rates were 19.3 (181 deaths) and 9.4 (1189 deaths) among pregnant and nonpregnant women, respectively (RR, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.3-4.1). Among women of childbearing age, the majority of estimated seasonal influenza-associated deaths occurred in HIV-infected individuals. Pregnant women experienced an increased risk of death associated with seasonal and A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza infection compared with nonpregnant women. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Seasonal variation in thoracic vessel calcifications: Evidence from a chest computed tomography study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vehmas, Tapio; Leino-Arjas, Paeivi (Health and Work Ability, Finnish Inst. of Occupational Health, Helsinki (Finland)), e-mail: tapio.vehmas@ttl.fi; Hiltunen, Asta (Dept. of Radiology, Central Hospital of Laensi-Pohja, Kemi (Finland))

2010-01-15

Background: Cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality exhibit a winter peak and a summer trough, a fact that could have radiological manifestations. Purpose: To identify possible seasonal trends in the occurrence of thoracic vessel calcifications. Material and Methods: 505 male construction workers (aged 39-80 years) were each imaged once with chest spiral computed tomography (CT) during a 2-year period. Based on visual assessment of calcified plaques (0=no, 1=slight, 2=moderate, 3=extensive calcification), sum scores of atherosclerosis in coronary arteries, in the thoracic aorta, in the pre-cervical artery bases, and overall were constructed. The scores were regressed on the annual rank number of the CT day. Results: By using the cubic regression model, seasonal variation in calcified plaques in coronary arteries (P=0.003), in pre-cervical artery origins (P=0.015), and in the overall sum score (P=0.004) was observed. The peak occurred in January-February and the nadir in August. Depending on the model, about 2-3% of the variation in atherosclerotic calcifications could be explained by the season of imaging. Conclusion: The observed seasonal trend in calcifications parallels with mortality reports. Seasonal variations should be considered in atherosclerosis treatment studies. Confirmatory studies using modern imaging technology are needed in different countries and geographical locations, preferably with repeat imaging of the same individuals

Chytridiomycosis and seasonal mortality of tropical stream-associated frogs 15 years after introduction of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillott, Andrea D; Grogan, Laura F; Cashins, Scott D; McDonald, Keith R; Berger, Lee; Skerratt, Lee F

2013-10-01

Assessing the effects of diseases on wildlife populations can be difficult in the absence of observed mortalities, but it is crucial for threat assessment and conservation. We performed an intensive capture-mark-recapture study across seasons and years to investigate the effect of chytridiomycosis on demographics in 2 populations of the threatened common mist frog (Litoria rheocola) in the lowland wet tropics of Queensland, Australia. Infection prevalence was the best predictor for apparent survival probability in adult males and varied widely with season (0-65%). Infection prevalence was highest in winter months when monthly survival probabilities were low (approximately 70%). Populations at both sites exhibited very low annual survival probabilities (12-15%) but high recruitment (71-91%), which resulted in population growth rates that fluctuated seasonally. Our results suggest that even in the absence of observed mortalities and continued declines, and despite host-pathogen co-existence for multiple host generations over almost 2 decades, chytridiomycosis continues to have substantial seasonally fluctuating population-level effects on amphibian survival, which necessitates increased recruitment for population persistence. Similarly infected populations may thus be under continued threat from chytridiomycosis which may render them vulnerable to other threatening processes, particularly those affecting recruitment success. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Variación estacional de la mortalidad en la ciudad de Valencia, España Seasonal variation of mortality rates within the city of Valencia, Spain

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FERRAN BALLESTER-DÍEZ

1997-03-01

. A clear seasonal pattern emerges with mortality peaking during the Winter months and dipping during the Summer and early Autumn. The increase in mortality seen during the month of January came to 27.7% of the total mortality for females and 19.5% of the total mortality for males. By age groups, this increase was greater in the 75-plus age group. Graphically, the relationship between temperature and mortality has a V-shape appearance, with a lower mortality level when the mean daily temperature for the month in question is approximately 23 degrees Celsius. Based on this relationship, two complementary variables were constructed and denominated cold and heat. These variables explain the greater percentage variability in mortality for all causes (47.6% in males and 54.8% in females in comparison with the model having temperature as its only variable. The association between temperature variables and mortality was greater in the older age groups ant in the females. Conclusions. A marked seasonal variation in mortality for all causes can be observed for both sexes, with peaks in the mortality rate during January and fewer mortalities during September. The seasonal variation in mortality grows in line with age and is undetectable in the youngest age group. By sex, the seasonal pattern is more marked for females than for males, with a noticeably more pronounced positive association between mortality and the cold variable in men of the older age-group, whereas, for women of the older age group, there is a greater association with the heat variable.

Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS)

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, Joe H., III; Roeder, William P.

2010-01-01

Peak wind speed is important element in 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS). Forecasts issued for planning operations at KSC/CCAFS. 45 WS wind advisories issued for wind gusts greater than or equal to 25 kt. 35 kt and 50 kt from surface to 300 ft. AMU developed cool-season (Oct - Apr) tool to help 45 WS forecast: daily peak wind speed, 5-minute average speed at time of peak wind, and probability peak speed greater than or equal to 25 kt, 35 kt, 50 kt. AMU tool also forecasts daily average wind speed from 30 ft to 60 ft. Phase I and II tools delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). Phase II tool also delivered as Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) GUI. Phase I and II forecast methods were compared to climatology, 45 WS wind advisories and North American Mesoscale model (MesoNAM) forecasts in a verification data set.

Potential Impact of Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention on the Acquisition of Antibodies Against Glutamate-Rich Protein and Apical Membrane Antigen 1 in Children Living in Southern Senegal

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ndiaye, Magatte; Sylla, Khadime; Sow, Doudou

2015-01-01

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is defined as the intermittent administration of full treatment courses of an antimalarial drug to children during the peak of malaria transmission season with the aim of preventing malaria-associated mortality and morbidity. SMC using sulfadoxine-pyrimetham......Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is defined as the intermittent administration of full treatment courses of an antimalarial drug to children during the peak of malaria transmission season with the aim of preventing malaria-associated mortality and morbidity. SMC using sulfadoxine......-pyrimethamine (SP) combined with amodiaquine (AQ) is a promising strategy to control malaria morbidity in areas of highly seasonal malaria transmission. However, a concern is whether SMC can delay the natural acquisition of immunity toward malaria parasites in areas with intense SMC delivery. To investigate this......, total IgG antibody (Ab) responses to Plasmodium falciparum antigens glutamate-rich protein R0 (GLURP-R0) and apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA-1) were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in Senegalese children under the age of 10 years in 2010 living in Saraya and Velingara districts (with SMC...

Suicide Mortality Among Retired National Football League Players Who Played 5 or More Seasons.

Science.gov (United States)

Lehman, Everett J; Hein, Misty J; Gersic, Christine M

2016-10-01

There is current disagreement in the scientific literature about the relationship between playing football and suicide risk, particularly among professional players in the National Football League (NFL). While some research indicates players are at high risk of football-related concussions, which may lead to chronic traumatic encephalopathy and suicide, other research finds such a connection to be speculative and unsupported by methodologically sound research. To compare the suicide mortality of a cohort of NFL players to what would be expected in the general population of the United States. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. A cohort of 3439 NFL players with at least 5 credited playing seasons between 1959 and 1988 was assembled for statistical analysis. The vital status for this cohort was updated through 2013. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), the ratio of observed deaths to expected deaths, and 95% CIs were computed for the cohort; 95% CIs that excluded unity were considered statistically significant. For internal comparison purposes, standardized rate ratios were calculated to compare mortality results between players stratified into speed and nonspeed position types. Suicide among this cohort of professional football players was significantly less than would be expected in comparison with the United States population (SMR = 0.47; 95% CI, 0.24-0.82). There were no significant differences in suicide mortality between speed and nonspeed position players. There is no indication of elevated suicide risk in this cohort of professional football players with 5 or more credited seasons of play. Because of the unique nature of this cohort, these study results may not be applicable to professional football players who played fewer than 5 years or to college or high school players. © 2016 The Author(s).

Reducing the threat of wildlife-vehicle collisions during peak tourism periods using a Roadside Animal Detection System.

Science.gov (United States)

Grace, Molly K; Smith, Daniel J; Noss, Reed F

2017-12-01

Roadside Animal Detection Systems (RADS) aim to reduce the frequency of wildlife-vehicle collisions. Unlike fencing and wildlife passages, RADS do not attempt to keep animals off the road; rather, they attempt to modify driver behavior by detecting animals near the road and warning drivers with flashing signs. A RADS was installed in Big Cypress National Park (Florida, USA) in 2012 in response to an increased number of Florida panther mortalities. To assess driver response, we measured the speed of individual cars on the road when the RADS was active (flashing) and inactive (not flashing) during the tourist season (November-March) and the off-season (April-October), which vary dramatically in traffic volume. We also used track beds and camera traps to assess whether roadside activity of large mammal species varied between seasons. In the tourist season, the activation of the RADS caused a significant reduction in vehicle speed. However, this effect was not observed in the off-season. Track and camera data showed that the tourist season coincided with peak periods of activity for several large mammals of conservation interest. Drivers in the tourist season generally drove faster than those in the off-season, so a reduction in speed in response to the RADS is more beneficial in the tourist season. Because traffic volume and roadside activity of several species of conservation interest both peak during the tourist season, our study indicates that the RADS has the potential to reduce the number of accidents during this period of heightened risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Season of prescribed burn in ponderosa pine forests in eastern Oregon: impact on pine mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Walter G. Thies; Douglas J. Westlind; Mark. Loewen

2005-01-01

A study of the effects of season of prescribed burn on tree mortality was established in mixed-age ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) at the south end of the Blue Mountains near Burns, Oregon. Each of six previously thinned stands was subdivided into three experimental units and one of three treatments was randomly assigned to each:...

[Excess mortality associated with influenza in Spain in winter 2012].

Science.gov (United States)

León-Gómez, Inmaculada; Delgado-Sanz, Concepción; Jiménez-Jorge, Silvia; Flores, Víctor; Simón, Fernando; Gómez-Barroso, Diana; Larrauri, Amparo; de Mateo Ontañón, Salvador

2015-01-01

An excess of mortality was detected in Spain in February and March 2012 by the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and the «European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action» program. The objective of this article was to determine whether this excess could be attributed to influenza in this period. Excess mortality from all causes from 2006 to 2012 were studied using time series in the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system, and Poisson regression in the European mortality surveillance system, as well as the FluMOMO model, which estimates the mortality attributable to influenza. Excess mortality due to influenza and pneumonia attributable to influenza were studied by a modification of the Serfling model. To detect the periods of excess, we compared observed and expected mortality. In February and March 2012, both the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and the European mortality surveillance system detected a mortality excess of 8,110 and 10,872 deaths (mortality ratio (MR): 1.22 (95% CI:1.21-1.23) and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.29-1.31), respectively). In the 2011-12 season, the FluMOMO model identified the maximum percentage (97%) of deaths attributable to influenza in people older than 64 years with respect to the mortality total associated with influenza (13,822 deaths). The rate of excess mortality due to influenza and pneumonia and respiratory causes in people older than 64 years, obtained by the Serfling model, also reached a peak in the 2011-2012 season: 18.07 and 77.20, deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. A significant increase in mortality in elderly people in Spain was detected by the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and by the European mortality surveillance system in the winter of 2012, coinciding with a late influenza season, with a predominance of the A(H3N2) virus, and a cold wave in Spain. This study suggests that influenza could have been one of the main factors contributing to the mortality excess

Use of post-thaw semen quality parameters to predict fertility of water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) bull during peak breeding season.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, H; Andrabi, S M H; Anwar, M; Jahan, S

2017-05-01

This study was designed to predict the fertility of water buffalo bull using post-thaw semen quality parameters during peak breeding season. Thirty ejaculates were collected from five bulls with artificial vagina and cryopreserved. At post-thaw, semen was analysed for motility parameters, velocity distribution, kinematics, DNA integrity/fragmentation, viability, mitochondrial transmembrane potential, morphology, plasma membrane and acrosome integrity. Data of 514 inseminations were collected for estimation of in vivo fertility. Pearson's correlation coefficients showed that progressive motility (PM), rapid velocity, average path velocity, straight line velocity, straightness, supravital plasma membrane integrity, viable spermatozoon with intact acrosome or with high mitochondrial activity were correlated with in vivo fertility (r = .81, p fertility was PM. However, combinations of semen quality parameters to predict fertility were better as compared to single parameter. In conclusion, fertility of buffalo bull can be predicted through some of the post-thaw in vitro semen quality tests during peak breeding season. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in France: comparison to seasonal influenza and the A/H3N2 pandemic.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Magali Lemaitre

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons. METHODS: We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic. RESULTS: The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI 0.2-1.9 excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43-45 for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3-3.7 for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5-24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years. CONCLUSIONS: The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable

Seasonal rhythms of seed rain and seedling emergence in two tropical rain forests in southern Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Marques, M C M; Oliveira, P E A M

2008-09-01

Seasonal tropical forests show rhythms in reproductive activities due to water stress during dry seasons. If both seed dispersal and seed germination occur in the best environmental conditions, mortality will be minimised and forest regeneration will occur. To evaluate whether non-seasonal forests also show rhythms, for 2 years we studied the seed rain and seedling emergence in two sandy coastal forests (flooded and unflooded) in southern Brazil. In each forest, one 100 x 30-m grid was marked and inside it 30 stations comprising two seed traps (0.5 x 0.5 m each) and one plot (2 x 2 m) were established for monthly monitoring of seed rain and a seedling emergence study, respectively. Despite differences in soil moisture and incident light on the understorey, flooded and unflooded forests had similar dispersal and germination patterns. Seed rain was seasonal and bimodal (peaks at the end of the wetter season and in the less wet season) and seedling emergence was seasonal and unimodal (peaking in the wetter season). Approximately 57% of the total species number had seedling emergence 4 or more months after dispersal. Therefore, both seed dormancy and the timing of seed dispersal drive the rhythm of seedling emergence in these forests. The peak in germination occurs in the wetter season, when soil fertility is higher and other phenological events also occur. The strong seasonality in these plant communities, even in this weakly seasonal climate, suggests that factors such as daylength, plant sensitivity to small changes in the environment (e.g. water and nutrient availability) or phylogenetic constraints cause seasonal rhythms in the plants.

Diversity, Seasonality, and Context of Mammalian Roadkills in the Southern Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Smith-Patten, Brenda D.; Patten, Michael A.

2008-06-01

Thousands of mammals are killed annually from vehicle collisions, making the issue an important one for conservation biologists and environmental managers. We recorded all readily identifiable kills on or immediately adjacent to roads in the southern Great Plains from March 2004-March 2007. We also recorded distance traveled, whether a road was paved or divided, the number of lanes, and prevailing habitat. Surveys were opportunistic and were conducted by car during conditions of good visibility. Over our 239 surveys and >16,500 km traveled, we recorded 1412 roadkills from 18 different mammal species (size ranged from Sciurus squirrels to the white-tailed deer, Odocolieus virginianus). The overall kill rate was 8.50 / 100 km. Four species were prone to collisions: the Virginia opossum ( Didelphis virginiana), nine-banded armadillo ( Dasypus novemcinctus), striped skunk ( Mephitis mephitis), and northern raccoon ( Procyon lotor). Together they accounted for approximately 85% (1198) of all roadkills. Mortality rate differed significantly between 2- and 4-lane roads (8.39 versus 7.79 / 100 km). Kill rates were significantly higher on paved versus unpaved roads (8.60 versus 3.65 / 100 km), but did not depend on whether a road was divided. Roadkills were higher in spring than in fall (1.5×), winter (1.4×), or summer (1.3×). The spring peak (in kills / 100 km) was driven chiefly by the armadillo (2.76 in spring/summer versus 0.73 in autumn/winter) and opossum (2.65 versus 1.47). By contrast, seasonality was dampened by a late winter/early spring peak in skunk mortalities, for which 41% occurred in the 6-week period of mid-February through March. The raccoon did not exhibit a strong seasonal pattern. Our data are consistent with dispersal patterns of these species. Our results underscore the high rate of highway mortality in the southern plains, as well as differences in seasonality and road type that contribute to mortality. Conservation and management efforts should

Hot Spots and Hot Times: Wildlife Road Mortality in a Regional Conservation Corridor

Science.gov (United States)

Garrah, Evelyn; Danby, Ryan K.; Eberhardt, Ewen; Cunnington, Glenn M.; Mitchell, Scott

2015-10-01

Strategies to reduce wildlife road mortality have become a significant component of many conservation efforts. However, their success depends on knowledge of the temporal and spatial patterns of mortality. We studied these patterns along the 1000 Islands Parkway in Ontario, Canada, a 37 km road that runs adjacent to the St. Lawrence River and bisects the Algonquin-to-Adirondacks international conservation corridor. Characteristics of all vertebrate road kill were recorded during 209 bicycle surveys conducted from 2008 to 2011. We estimate that over 16,700 vertebrates are killed on the road from April to October each year; most are amphibians, but high numbers of birds, mammals, and reptiles were also found, including six reptiles considered at-risk in Canada. Regression tree analysis was used to assess the importance of seasonality, weather, and traffic on road kill magnitude. All taxa except mammals exhibited distinct temporal peaks corresponding to phases in annual life cycles. Variations in weather and traffic were only important outside these peak times. Getis-Ord analysis was used to identify spatial clusters of mortality. Hot spots were found in all years for all taxa, but locations varied annually. A significant spatial association was found between multiyear hot spots and wetlands. The results underscore the notion that multi-species conservation efforts must account for differences in the seasonality of road mortality among species and that multiple years of data are necessary to identify locations where the greatest conservation good can be achieved. This information can be used to inform mitigation strategies with implications for conservation at regional scales.

Seasonal Variation in Solar Ultra Violet Radiation and Early Mortality in Extremely Preterm Infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Salas, Ariel A; Smith, Kelly A; Rodgers, Mackenzie D; Phillips, Vivien; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam

2015-11-01

Vitamin D production during pregnancy promotes fetal lung development, a major determinant of infant survival after preterm birth. Because vitamin D synthesis in humans is regulated by solar ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation, we hypothesized that seasonal variation in solar UVB doses during fetal development would be associated with variation in neonatal mortality rates. This cohort study included infants born alive with gestational age (GA) between 23 and 28 weeks gestation admitted to a neonatal unit between 1996 and 2010. Three infant cohort groups were defined according to increasing intensities of solar UVB doses at 17 and 22 weeks gestation. The primary outcome was death during the first 28 days after birth. Outcome data of 2,319 infants were analyzed. Mean birth weight was 830 ± 230 g and median gestational age was 26 weeks. Mortality rates were significantly different across groups (p = 0.04). High-intensity solar UVB doses were associated with lower mortality when compared with normal intensity solar UVB doses (hazard ratio: 0.70; 95% confidence interval: 0.54-0.91; p = 0.01). High-intensity solar UVB doses during fetal development seem to be associated with risk reduction of early mortality in preterm infants. Prospective studies are needed to validate these preliminary findings. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Annual Survey of Horsehair Worm Cysts in Northern Taiwan, with Notes on a Single Seasonal Infection Peak in Chironomid Larvae (Diptera: Chironomidae).

Science.gov (United States)

Chiu, Ming-Chung; Huang, Chin-Gi; Wu, Wen-Jer; Shiao, Shiuh-Feng

2016-06-01

The life cycle of the freshwater horsehair worm typically includes a free-living phase (adult, egg, larva) and a multiple-host parasitic phase (aquatic paratenic host, terrestrial definitive host). Such a life cycle involving water and land can improve energy flow in riparian ecosystems; however, its temporal dynamics in nature have rarely been investigated. This study examined seasonal infection with cysts in larval Chironominae (Diptera: Chironomidae) in northern Taiwan. In the larval chironomids, cysts of 3 horsehair worm species were identified. The cysts of the dominant species were morphologically similar to those of Chordodes formosanus. Infection with these cysts increased suddenly and peaked 2 mo after the reproductive season of the adult horsehair worms. Although adult C. formosanus emerged several times in a year, only 1 distinct infection peak was detected in September in the chironomid larvae. Compared with the subfamily Chironominae, samples from the subfamilies Tanypodinae and Orthocladiinae were less parasitized. This indicates that the feeding behavior of the chironomid host likely affects horsehair worm cyst infections; however, bioconcentration in predatory chironomids was not detected.

Peak flow as predictor of overall mortality in asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Ejvind Frausing; Vestbo, Jørgen; Phanareth, K

2001-01-01

Lung function is a strong predictor of overall mortality in asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). FEV1 is considered to be the "gold standard," whereas peak expiratory flow (PEF) is mostly used in absence of FEV1 measurements. We compared the predictive power of PEF and FEV1......, measured after maximal bronchodilation, which included a short course of oral corticosteroids. The study population comprised 491 asthmatics and 1,095 subjects with COPD. Pulmonary function tests were performed between 1983 and 1988, and survival data were obtained by September 1997, when 127 asthmatics...... reflecting different components of COPD, i.e., chronic bronchitis, small airways disease, and emphysema. Furthermore, extrapulmonary components such as muscle mass and general "vigour" probably affect PEF to a greater extent than they affect FEV1....

Plaice egg mortality: can we determine survivorschip?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dickey-Collas, M.; Fox, C.J.; Nash, R.D.M.; O'Brien, C.M.

2003-01-01

The daily mortality rate of cohorts of plaice eggs in the Irish Sea is estimated throughout the spawning season in 1995 and 2000, using general additive models of egg production. Daily mortality (z) was found to vary between 0.15 and 0.29. Mortality rates declined through the season in 1995 but not

Excess mortality in winter in Finnish intensive care.

Science.gov (United States)

Reinikainen, M; Uusaro, A; Ruokonen, E; Niskanen, M

2006-07-01

In the general population, mortality from acute myocardial infarctions, strokes and respiratory causes is increased in winter. The winter climate in Finland is harsh. The aim of this study was to find out whether there are seasonal variations in mortality rates in Finnish intensive care units (ICUs). We analysed data on 31,040 patients treated in 18 Finnish ICUs. We measured severity of illness with acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores and intensity of care with therapeutic intervention scoring system (TISS) scores. We assessed mortality rates in different months and seasons and used logistic regression analysis to test the independent effect of various seasons on hospital mortality. We defined 'winter' as the period from December to February, inclusive. The crude hospital mortality rate was 17.9% in winter and 16.4% in non-winter, P = 0.003. Even after adjustment for case mix, winter season was an independent risk factor for increased hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.22, P = 0.005). In particular, the risk of respiratory failure was increased in winter. Crude hospital mortality was increased during the main holiday season in July. However, the severity of illness-adjusted risk of death was not higher in July than in other months. An increase in the mean daily TISS score was an independent predictor of increased hospital mortality. Severity of illness-adjusted hospital mortality for Finnish ICU patients is higher in winter than in other seasons.

Short dry spells in the wet season increase mortality of tropical pioneer seedlings.

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Engelbrecht, Bettina M J; Dalling, James W; Pearson, Timothy R H; Wolf, Robert L; Gálvez, David A; Koehler, Tobias; Tyree, Melvin T; Kursar, Thomas A

2006-06-01

Variation in plant species performance in response to water availability offers a potential axis for temporal and spatial habitat partitioning and may therefore affect community composition in tropical forests. We hypothesized that short dry spells during the wet season are a significant source of mortality for the newly emerging seedlings of pioneer species that recruit in treefall gaps in tropical forests. An analysis of a 49-year rainfall record for three forests across a rainfall gradient in central Panama confirmed that dry spells of > or = 10 days during the wet season occur on average once a year in a deciduous forest, and once every other year in a semi-deciduous moist and an evergreen wet forest. The effect of wet season dry spells on the recruitment of pioneers was investigated by comparing seedling survival in rain-protected dry plots and irrigated control plots in four large artificially created treefall gaps in a semi-deciduous tropical forest. In rain-protected plots surface soil layers dried rapidly, leading to a strong gradient in water potential within the upper 10 cm of soil. Seedling survival for six pioneer species was significantly lower in rain-protected than in irrigated control plots after only 4 days. The strength of the irrigation effect differed among species, and first became apparent 3-10 days after treatments started. Root allocation patterns were significantly, or marginally significantly, different between species and between two groups of larger and smaller seeded species. However, they were not correlated with seedling drought sensitivity, suggesting allocation is not a key trait for drought sensitivity in pioneer seedlings. Our data provide strong evidence that short dry spells in the wet season differentially affect seedling survivorship of pioneer species, and may therefore have important implications to seedling demography and community dynamics.

Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

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Barrett, Joe H., III; Roeder, William P.

2010-01-01

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily morning forecast for ground and space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) must issue forecast advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect peak gusts for >= 25, >= 35, and >= 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. In Phase I of this task, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a cool-season (October - April) tool to help forecast the non-convective peak wind from the surface to 300 ft at KSC/CCAFS. During the warm season, these wind speeds are rarely exceeded except during convective winds or under the influence of tropical cyclones, for which other techniques are already in use. The tool used single and multiple linear regression equations to predict the peak wind from the morning sounding. The forecaster manually entered several observed sounding parameters into a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI), and then the tool displayed the forecast peak wind speed, average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, the timing of the peak wind and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed 35, 50 and 60 kt. The 45 WS customers later dropped the requirement for >= 60 kt wind warnings. During Phase II of this task, the AMU expanded the period of record (POR) by six years to increase the number of observations used to create the forecast equations. A large number of possible predictors were evaluated from archived soundings, including inversion depth and strength, low-level wind shear, mixing height, temperature lapse rate and winds from the surface to 3000 ft. Each day in the POR was stratified in a number of ways, such as by low-level wind direction, synoptic weather pattern, precipitation and Bulk Richardson number. The most accurate Phase II equations were then selected for an independent verification. The Phase I and II forecast methods were

Season, sex, age, and education as modifiers of the effects of outdoor air pollution on daily mortality in Shanghai, China: The Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA) Study.

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Kan, Haidong; London, Stephanie J; Chen, Guohai; Zhang, Yunhui; Song, Guixiang; Zhao, Naiqing; Jiang, Lili; Chen, Bingheng

2008-09-01

Various factors can modify the health effects of outdoor air pollution. Prior findings about modifiers are inconsistent, and most of these studies were conducted in developed countries. We conducted a time-series analysis to examine the modifying effect of season, sex, age, and education on the association between outdoor air pollutants [particulate matter air pollution for the warm season (April-September) and cool season (October-March) separately. For total mortality, we examined the association stratified by sex and age. Stratified analysis by educational attainment was conducted for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Outdoor air pollution was associated with mortality from all causes and from cardiorespiratory diseases in Shanghai. An increase of 10 mug/m(3) in a 2-day average concentration of PM(10), SO(2), NO(2), and O(3) corresponds to increases in all-cause mortality of 0.25% [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.14-0.37), 0.95% (95% CI, 0.62-1.28), 0.97% (95% CI, 0.66-1.27), and 0.31% (95% CI, 0.04-0.58), respectively. The effects of air pollutants were more evident in the cool season than in the warm season, and females and the elderly were more vulnerable to outdoor air pollution. Effects of air pollution were generally greater in residents with low educational attainment (illiterate or primary school) compared with those with high educational attainment (middle school or above). Season, sex, age, and education may modify the health effects of outdoor air pollution in Shanghai. These findings provide new information about the effects of modifiers on the relationship between daily mortality and air pollution in developing countries and may have implications for local environmental and social policies.

Influenza seasonality goes south in the Yucatan Peninsula: The case for a different influenza vaccine calendar in this Mexican region.

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Ayora-Talavera, Guadalupe; Flores, Gerardo Montalvo-Zurbia; Gómez-Carballo, Jesus; González-Losa, Refugio; Conde-Ferraez, Laura; Puerto-Solís, Marylin; López-Martínez, Irma; Díaz-Quiñonez, Alberto; Barrera-Badillo, Gisela; Acuna-Soto, Rodolfo; Livinski, Alicia A; Alonso, Wladimir J

2017-08-24

While vaccination may be relatively straightforward for regions with a well-defined winter season, the situation is quite different for tropical regions. Influenza activity in tropical regions might be out of phase with the dynamics predicted for their hemispheric group thereby impacting the effectiveness of the immunization campaign. To investigate how the climatic diversity of Mexico hinders its existing influenza immunization strategy and to suggest that the hemispheric vaccine recommendations be tailored to the regional level in order to optimize vaccine effectiveness. We studied the seasonality of influenza throughoutMexico by modeling virological and mortality data.De-trended time series of each Mexican state were analyzed by Fourier decomposition to describe the amplitude and timing of annual influenza epidemic cycles and to compare with each the timing of the WHO's Northern and Southern Hemispheric vaccination schedule. The timings of the primary (major) peaks of both virological and mortality data for most Mexican states are well aligned with the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) and vaccine schedule. However, influenza peaks in September in the three states of the Yucatan Peninsula. Influenza-related mortality also peaks in September in Quintana Roo and Yucatan whereas it peaks in May in Campeche. As the current timing of vaccination in Mexico is between October and November, more than half of the annual influenza cases have already occurred in the Yucatan Peninsula states by the time the Northern Hemispheric vaccine is delivered and administered. The current Northern Hemispheric influenza calendar adopted for Mexico is not optimal for the Yucatan Peninsula states thereby likely reducing the effectiveness of the immunization of the population. We recommend that Mexico tailor its immunization strategy to better reflect its climatologic and epidemiological diversity and adopt the WHO Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine and schedule for the

Survival during the Breeding Season: Nest Stage, Parental Sex, and Season Advancement Affect Reed Warbler Survival.

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Kaja Wierucka

Full Text Available Avian annual survival has received much attention, yet little is known about seasonal patterns in survival, especially of migratory passerines. In order to evaluate survival rates and timing of mortality within the breeding season of adult reed warblers (Acrocephalus scirpaceus, mark-recapture data were collected in southwest Poland, between 2006 and 2012. A total of 612 individuals (304 females and 308 males were monitored throughout the entire breeding season, and their capture-recapture histories were used to model survival rates. Males showed higher survival during the breeding season (0.985, 95% CI: 0.941-0.996 than females (0.869, 95% CI: 0.727-0.937. Survival rates of females declined with the progression of the breeding season (from May to August, while males showed constant survival during this period. We also found a clear pattern within the female (but not male nesting cycle: survival was significantly lower during the laying, incubation, and nestling periods (0.934, 95% CI: 0.898-0.958, when birds spent much time on the nest, compared to the nest building and fledgling periods (1.000, 95% CI: 1.00-1.000, when we did not record any female mortality. These data (coupled with some direct evidence, like bird corpses or blood remains found next to/on the nest may suggest that the main cause of adult mortality was on-nest predation. The calculated survival rates for both sexes during the breeding season were high compared to annual rates reported for this species, suggesting that a majority of mortality occurs at other times of the year, during migration or wintering. These results have implications for understanding survival variation within the reproductive period as well as general trends of avian mortality.

Seasonal change in pupation behaviour and pupal mortality in a swallowtail butterfly

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Stefanescu, C.

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Phenotypic plasticity in pupal colour has evolved to render cryptic pupae. Apart from characteristics of the pupation site, the photoperiod experienced by larvae is important in determining pupal colour, long and short photophases eliciting the formation of green and brown pupae, respectively. This seasonal polyphenismis often correlated with developmental pathway, green pupae developing directly and brown pupae entering into diapause. From 1996 to 2000, immature stages of Iphiclides podalirius were monitored on natural hostplants in NE Spain. Larvae were followed to the pupation site and pupal colour, characteristics of the pupation site and the fate of pupae were recorded. Before August, pupae were non-diapausing green while in early August they were dimorphic, after which, they were brown and overwintered. As theory predicts, differences in pupation sites in successive generations were found in relation to pupal colour. Green pupae occurred on the hostplants and brown pupae were found among the leaf litter. Mortality ranged from 14.3 to 100%. Bird predation was the major mortality factor for green pupae and was also important for brown pupae. Results suggest that preference for pupation sites in the litter in diapausing broods evolved to avoid strong bird predation on the hostplants. Preference for sites above ground level in summer generations may have evolved in response to both non-visual (small mammals and visual (avian predators.

Association of Seasonal Climate Variability and Age-Specific Mortality in Northern Sweden before the Onset of Industrialization

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Joacim Rocklöv

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Background and aims: Little is known about health impacts of climate in pre-industrial societies. We used historical data to investigate the association of temperature and precipitation with total and age-specific mortality in Skellefteå, northern Sweden, between 1749 and 1859. Methods: We retrieved digitized aggregated population data of the Skellefteå parish, and monthly temperature and precipitation measures. A generalized linear model was established for year to year variability in deaths by annual and seasonal average temperature and cumulative precipitation using a negative binomial function, accounting for long-term trends in population size. The final full model included temperature and precipitation of all four seasons simultaneously. Relative risks (RR with 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated for total, sex- and age-specific mortality. Results: In the full model, only autumn precipitation proved statistically significant (RR 1.02; CI 1.00–1.03, per 1cm increase of autumn precipitation, while winter temperature (RR 0.98; CI 0.95–1.00, per 1 °C increase in temperature and spring precipitation (RR 0.98; CI 0.97–1.00 per 1 cm increase in precipitation approached significance. Similar effects were observed for men and women. The impact of climate variability on mortality was strongest in children aged 3–9, and partly also in older children. Infants, on the other hand, appeared to be less affected by unfavourable climate conditions. Conclusions: In this pre-industrial rural region in northern Sweden, higher levels of rain during the autumn increased the annual number of deaths. Harvest quality might be one critical factor in the causal pathway, affecting nutritional status and susceptibility to infectious diseases. Autumn rain probably also contributed to the spread of air-borne diseases in crowded living conditions. Children beyond infancy appeared most vulnerable to climate impacts.

Seasonal variations of U.S. mortality rates: Roles of solar ultraviolet-B doses, vitamin D, gene exp ression, and infections.

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Grant, William B; Bhattoa, Harjit Pal; Boucher, Barbara J

2017-10-01

Death rates in the U.S. show a pronounced seasonality. The broad seasonal variation shows about 25% higher death rates in winter than in summer with an additional few percent increase associated with the Christmas and New Year's holidays. A pronounced increase in death rates also starts in mid-September, shortly after the school year begins. The causes of death with large contributions to the observed seasonality include diseases of the circulatory system; the respiratory system; the digestive system; and endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases. Researchers have identified several factors showing seasonal variation that could possibly explain the seasonal variations in mortality rate. These factors include seasonal variations in solar ultraviolet-B(UVB) doses and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations, gene expression, ambient temperature and humidity, UVB effects on environmental pathogen load, environmental pollutants and allergens, and photoperiod (or length of day). The factors with the strongest support in this analysis are seasonal variations in solar UVB doses and 25(OH)D concentrations. In the U.S., population mean 25(OH)D concentrations range from 21ng/mL in March to 28ng/mL in August. Measures to ensure that all people had 25(OH)D concentrations >36ng/mL year round would probably reduce death rates significantly. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality Trends of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in the United States from 1999 to 2013.

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Cochi, Shea E; Kempker, Jordan A; Annangi, Srinadh; Kramer, Michael R; Martin, Greg S

2016-10-01

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is an acute hypoxemic respiratory failure seen in critically ill patients after an inciting injury. The burden of ARDS mortality in the United States in recent years is not well characterized. In this study, we aimed to describe trends in the annual incidence of ARDS mortality in the United States from 1999 to 2013. We also describe demographic characteristics, geographic and seasonal trends, and other associated underlying causes of death in this population. Data on all deceased U.S. residents are available through the Multiple Cause of Death (MCOD) database of the National Center for Health Statistics. ARDS-related deaths were identified in the MCOD database using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision. Aggregate annual crude and age-adjusted mortality rates and mortality rate ratios were used to compare various demographic subpopulations. Over the 15-year period, the national ARDS-related age-adjusted mortality rate demonstrated an annual seasonal variation, peaking in winter. The annual rate decreased in a nonlinear fashion, with a plateau from 2010 to 2013. The ARDS-related age-adjusted mortality rate was 5.01 per 100,000 persons (95% confidence interval, 4.92-5.09) in 1999 and 2.82 per 100,000 persons (95% confidence interval, 2.76-2.88) in 2013. Males had a higher average ARDS-related mortality rate than did females. Asian/Pacific Islanders had the lowest average age-adjusted ARDS-related mortality rate, and black/African-American individuals, the highest. National age-adjusted ARDS-related mortality rates decreased between 1999 and 2013 in the United States, yet still show relative racial and sex disparities. However, death certificates largely underestimate the overall mortality burden from ARDS when compared with studies of clinically ascertained cases.

Timing of floods in southeastern China: Seasonal properties and potential causes

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Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Luo, Ming

2017-09-01

Flood hazards and flood risks in southeastern China have been causing increasing concerns due to dense population and highly-developed economy. This study attempted to address changes of seasonality, timing of peak floods and variability of occurrence date of peak floods using circular statistical methods and the modified Mann-Kendall trend detection method. The causes of peak flood changes were also investigated. Results indicated that: (1) floods were subject to more seasonality and temporal clustering when compared to precipitation extremes. However, seasonality of floods and extreme precipitation was subject to spatial heterogeneity in northern Guangdong. Similar changing patterns of peak floods and extreme precipitation were found in coastal regions; (2) significant increasing/decreasing seasonality, but no confirmed spatial patterns, were observed for peak floods and extreme precipitation. Peak floods in northern Guangdong province had decreasing variability, but had larger variability in coastal regions; (3) tropical cyclones had remarkable impacts on extreme precipitation changes in coastal regions of southeastern China, and peak floods as well. The landfalling of tropical cyclones was decreasing and concentrated during June-September; this is the major reason for earlier but enhanced seasonality of peak floods in coastal regions. This study sheds new light on flood behavior in coastal regions in a changing environment.

Species biogeography predicts drought responses in a seasonally dry tropical forest

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Schwartz, N.; Powers, J. S.; Vargas, G.; Xu, X.; Smith, C. M.; Brodribb, T.; Werden, L. K.; Becknell, J.; Medvigy, D.

2017-12-01

The timing, distribution, and amount of rainfall in the seasonal tropics have shifted in recent years, with consequences for seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF). SDTF are sensitive to changing rainfall regimes and drought conditions, but sensitivity to drought varies substantially across species. One potential explanation of species differences is that species that experience dry conditions more frequently throughout their range will be better able to cope with drought than species from wetter climates, because species from drier climates will be better adapted to drought. An El-Niño induced drought in 2015 presented an opportunity to assess species-level differences in mortality in SDTF, and to ask whether the ranges of rainfall conditions species experience and the average rainfall regimes in species' ranges predict differences in mortality rates in Costa Rican SDTF. We used field plot data from northwest Costa Rica to determine species' level mortality rates. Mortality rates ranged substantially across species, with some species having no dead individuals to as high as 50% mortality. To quantify rainfall conditions across species' ranges, we used species occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and rainfall data from the Chelsa climate dataset. We found that while the average and range of mean annual rainfall across species ranges did not predict drought-induced mortality in the field plots, across-range averages of the seasonality index, a measure of rainfall seasonality, was strongly correlated with species-level drought mortality (r = -0.62, p < 0.05), with species from more strongly seasonal climates experiencing less severe drought mortality. Furthermore, we found that the seasonality index was a stronger predictor of mortality than any individual functional trait we considered. This result shows that species' biogeography may be an important factor for how species will respond to future drought, and may be a more integrative

Seasonal Patterns of Gastrointestinal Illness and Streamflow along the Ohio River

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Elena N. Naumova

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Waterborne gastrointestinal (GI illnesses demonstrate seasonal increases associated with water quality and meteorological characteristics. However, few studies have been conducted on the association of hydrological parameters, such as streamflow, and seasonality of GI illnesses. Streamflow is correlated with biological contamination and can be used as proxy for drinking water contamination. We compare seasonal patterns of GI illnesses in the elderly (65 years and older along the Ohio River for a 14-year period (1991–2004 to seasonal patterns of streamflow. Focusing on six counties in close proximity to the river, we compiled weekly time series of hospitalizations for GI illnesses and streamflow data. Seasonal patterns were explored using Poisson annual harmonic regression with and without adjustment for streamflow. GI illnesses demonstrated significant seasonal patterns with peak timing preceding peak timing of streamflow for all six counties. Seasonal patterns of illness remain consistent after adjusting for streamflow. This study found that the time of peak GI illness precedes the peak of streamflow, suggesting either an indirect relationship or a more direct path whereby pathogens enter water supplies prior to the peak in streamflow. Such findings call for interdisciplinary research to better understand associations among streamflow, pathogen loading, and rates of gastrointestinal illnesses.

Seasonal patterns in human A (H5N1 virus infection: analysis of global cases.

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Maya B Mathur

Full Text Available Human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI A (H5N1 have high mortality. Despite abundant data on seasonal patterns in influenza epidemics, it is unknown whether similar patterns exist for human HPAI H5N1 cases worldwide. Such knowledge could help decrease avian-to-human transmission through increased prevention and control activities during peak periods.We performed a systematic search of published human HPAI H5N1 cases to date, collecting month, year, country, season, hemisphere, and climate data. We used negative binomial regression to predict changes in case incidence as a function of season. To investigate hemisphere as a potential moderator, we used AIC and the likelihood-ratio test to compare the season-only model to nested models including a main effect or interaction with hemisphere. Finally, we visually assessed replication of seasonal patterns across climate groups based on the Köppen-Geiger climate classification.We identified 617 human cases (611 with complete seasonal data occurring in 15 countries in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Case occurrence was much higher in winter (n = 285, p = 0.03 than summer (n = 64, and the winter peak occurred across diverse climate groups. There was no significant interaction between hemisphere and season.Across diverse climates, HPAI H5N1 virus infection in humans increases significantly in winter. This is consistent with increased poultry outbreaks and HPAI H5N1 virus transmission during cold and dry conditions. Prioritizing prevention and control activities among poultry and focusing public health messaging to reduce poultry exposures during winter months may help to reduce zoonotic transmission of HPAI H5N1 virus in resource-limited settings.

Influence of peak flow changes on the macroinvertebrate drift downstream of a Brazilian hydroelectric dam.

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Castro, D M P; Hughes, R M; Callisto, M

2013-11-01

Successive daily peak flows from hydropower plants can disrupt aquatic ecosystems and alter the composition and structure of macroinvertebrates downstream. We evaluated the influence of peak flow changes on macroinvertebrate drift downstream of a hydroelectric plant as a basis for determining ecological flows that might reduce the disturbance of aquatic biota. The aim of this study was to assess the influence of flow fluctuations on the seasonal and daily drift patterns of macroinvertebrates. We collected macroinvertebrates during fixed flow rates (323 m3.s-1 in the wet season and 111 m3.s-1 in the dry season) and when peak flows fluctuated (378 to 481 m3.s-1 in the wet season, and 109 to 173 m3.s-1 in the dry season) in 2010. We collected 31,924 organisms belonging to 46 taxa in the four sampling periods. Taxonomic composition and densities of drifting invertebrates differed between fixed and fluctuating flows, in both wet and dry seasons, but family richness varied insignificantly. We conclude that macroinvertebrate assemblages downstream of dams are influenced by daily peak flow fluctuations. When making environmental flow decisions for dams, it would be wise to consider drifting macroinvertebrates because they reflect ecological changes in downstream biological assemblages.

Lagged effect of diurnal temperature range on mortality in a subtropical megacity of China.

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Yuan Luo

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Many studies have found extreme temperature can increase the risk of mortality. However, it is not clear whether extreme diurnal temperature range (DTR is associated with daily disease-specific mortality, and how season might modify any association. OBJECTIVES: To better understand the acute effect of DTR on mortality and identify whether season is a modifier of the DTR effect. METHODS: The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM was applied to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of DTR on deaths (non-accidental mortality (NAD, cardiovascular disease (CVD, respiratory disease (RD and cerebrovascular disease (CBD in the full year, the cold season and the warm season. RESULTS: A non-linear relationship was consistently found between extreme DTR and mortality. Immediate effects of extreme low DTR on all types of mortality were stronger than those of extreme high DTR in the full year. The cumulative effects of extreme DTRs increased with the increment of lag days for all types of mortality in cold season, and they were greater for extreme high DTRs than those of extreme low DTRs. In hot season, the cumulative effects for extreme low DTRs increased with the increment of lag days, but for extreme high DTR they reached maxima at a lag of 13 days for all types of mortality except for CBD(at lag6 days, and then decreased. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that extreme DTR is an independent risk factor of daily mortality, and season is a modifier of the association of DTR with daily mortality.

Late Noachian Icy Highlands climate model: Exploring the possibility of transient melting and fluvial/lacustrine activity through peak annual and seasonal temperatures

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Palumbo, Ashley M.; Head, James W.; Wordsworth, Robin D.

2018-01-01

The nature of the Late Noachian climate of Mars remains one of the outstanding questions in the study of the evolution of martian geology and climate. Despite abundant evidence for flowing water (valley networks and open/closed basin lakes), climate models have had difficulties reproducing mean annual surface temperatures (MAT) > 273 K in order to generate the ;warm and wet; climate conditions presumed to be necessary to explain the observed fluvial and lacustrine features. Here, we consider a ;cold and icy; climate scenario, characterized by MAT ∼225 K and snow and ice distributed in the southern highlands, and ask: Does the formation of the fluvial and lacustrine features require continuous ;warm and wet; conditions, or could seasonal temperature variation in a ;cold and icy; climate produce sufficient summertime ice melting and surface runoff to account for the observed features? To address this question, we employ the 3D Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique global climate model (LMD GCM) for early Mars and (1) analyze peak annual temperature (PAT) maps to determine where on Mars temperatures exceed freezing in the summer season, (2) produce temperature time series at three valley network systems and compare the duration of the time during which temperatures exceed freezing with seasonal temperature variations in the Antarctic McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) where similar fluvial and lacustrine features are observed, and (3) perform a positive-degree-day analysis to determine the annual volume of meltwater produced through this mechanism, estimate the necessary duration that this process must repeat to produce sufficient meltwater for valley network formation, and estimate whether runoff rates predicted by this mechanism are comparable to those required to form the observed geomorphology of the valley networks. When considering an ambient CO2 atmosphere, characterized by MAT ∼225 K, we find that: (1) PAT can exceed the melting point of water (>273 K) in

Seasonal Patterns of Sporophyte Growth, Fertility, Fouling, and Mortality of Saccharina latissima in Skagerrak, Norway: Implications for Forest Recovery

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Guri Sogn Andersen

2011-01-01

Full Text Available On the Skagerrak coast the kelp Saccharina latissima has suffered severe stand reductions over the last decade, resulting in loss of important habitats. In the present study, healthy kelp plants were transplanted into four deforested areas and their patterns of growth, reproduction, and survival were monitored through subsequent seasons. Our main objective was to establish whether the kelp plants were able to grow and mature in deforested areas. We observed normal patterns of growth and maturation at all study sites. However, heavy fouling by epiphytes occurred each summer, followed by high kelp mortality. The study shows that the seasonal variations and the life stage timing of S. latissima make formation of self-sustainable populations impossible in the present environment. Most noteworthy, we suggest that fouling by epiphytes is involved in the lack of kelp forest recovery in Skagerrak, Norway.

Effects of Extensive Beetle-Induced Forest Mortality on Aromatic Organic Carbon Loading and Disinfection Byproduct Formation Potential

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Brouillard, B.; Mikkelson, K. M.; Dickenson, E.; Sharp, J.

2015-12-01

Recent drought and warmer temperatures associated with climate change have caused increased pest-induced forest mortality with impacts on biogeochemical and hydrologic processes. To better understand the seasonal impacts of bark beetle infestation on water quality, samples were collected regularly over two overlapping snow free seasons at surface water intakes of six water treatment facilities in the Rocky Mountain region of Colorado displaying varying levels of bark beetle infestation (high >40%, moderate 20-40%, and low <20%). Organic carbon concentrations were typically 3 to 6 times higher in waters sourced from high beetle-impacted watersheds compared to moderate and low impact watersheds, revealing elevated specific ultraviolet absorbance, fluorescence, and humic-like intensity indicative of elevated aromatic carbon signatures. Accordingly, an increase in disinfection byproduct (DBP) formation potential of 400 to 600% was quantified when contrasted with watersheds containing less tree mortality. Beetle impact exasperated seasonal increases in carbon loading and DBP formation potential following both runoff and precipitation events indicating windows when enhanced water treatment may be utilized by water providers in highly infested regions. Additionally, elevated carbon concentrations throughout the summer and fall along with peaks following precipitation events provide evidence of shifting hydrologic flow paths in areas experiencing high forest mortality from decreased tree water uptake and interception. Collectively, these results demonstrate the need for continued watershed protection and monitoring with a changing climate as the resultant perturbations can have adverse effects on biogeochemistry and water quality in heavily impacted areas.

Differences in Influenza Seasonality by Latitude, Northern India

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Broor, Shobha; Saha, Siddhartha; Barnes, John; Smith, Catherine; Shaw, Michael; Chadha, Mandeep; Lal, Renu B.

2014-01-01

The seasonality of influenza in the tropics complicates vaccination timing. We investigated influenza seasonality in northern India and found influenza positivity peaked in Srinagar (34.09°N) in January–March but peaked in New Delhi (28.66°N) in July–September. Srinagar should consider influenza vaccination in October–November, but New Delhi should vaccinate in May–June. PMID:25279651

Daily Nigerian peak load forecasting using artificial neural network ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A daily peak load forecasting technique that uses artificial neural network with seasonal indices is presented in this paper. A neural network of relatively smaller size than the main prediction network is used to predict the daily peak load for a period of one year over which the actual daily load data are available using one ...

Trend and Seasonal Patterns of Injuries and Mortality Due to Motorcyclists Traffic Accidents; A Hospital-Based Study.

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Hosseinpour, Marjan; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah; Esmaeilpour Aghdam, Mohammad; Mohammadian, Mahdi; Maleki, Farzad

2017-01-01

To investigate trend and seasonal pattern of occurrence and mortality of motorcycle accidents in patients referred to hospitals of Isfahan. This cross-sectional study was carried out using traffic accidents data of Isfahan province, extracted from Ministry of Health (MOH) database from 2006 to 2010. During the study period, 83648 people injured due to motorcycle traffic accidents were referred to hospitals, all of them entered in the study. Logistic regression model was used to calculate the hospital mortality odds ratio, and Cochrane-Armitage test was used for assessment of linear trend. During the study period, the hospital admission for motorcycle accident was 83,648 and 89.3% (74743) of them were men. Mean age in accidents time was 26.41±14.3 years. The injuries and death sex ratio were 8.4 and 16.9, respectively. Lowest admission rate was during autumn and highest during summer. The injury mortality odds ratio was 1.01 (CI 95% 0.73-1.39) in the Spring, 1.34 (CI95% 1.01-1.79) in summer and 1.17 (CI95% 0.83-1.63). It was also calculated to be 2.51 (CI95% 1.36-4.64) in age group 40-49, 2.39 (CI95% 1.51-5.68) in 50-59 and 4.79 (CI95% 2.49-9.22) in 60-69 years. The mortality odds ratio was 3.53 (CI95% 2.77-4.5) in rural place, 1.33 (CI95% 1.15-1.54) in men, and 2.44 (CI95% 2.09-2.85) in the road out of town and village. In addition, trend of motorcycle accidents mortality was increasing ( p accidents injuries are more common in men, summer, young age and rural roads. These high risk groups need more attention, care and higher training.

Contribution to performing gas solutions and the complementarity of energies to address electric peak consumptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-01-01

This article aims at outlining the contribution that gas-based solutions may have for the reduction of the seasonal electricity peak consumption. After having recalled the principles related to electricity peak consumption (daily peak in summer and in winter due to the use of various equipment which lasts few hours, seasonal peak in winter due to the use of electric heating which may last several weeks) and the associated evolution of electricity consumptions over the last years, this article describes the main challenges related to the electric peak consumption: how to maintain the balance in real time between production and consumption. In France, the network manager must use, beside nuclear power stations, thermal productions (gas or coal-based) which result in higher CO 2 emissions. Electricity imports from Germany also degrade the French carbon footprint. Thus, the management of daily and seasonal peaks can be based on three levers of action: to act on supply by developing capacities to face the residual peak, to act on demand by smoothing the load curve by controlling the load of electric equipment, or to act on demand by a global reduction of the thermo-sensitive consumption of electricity

A new approach to modeling temperature-related mortality: Non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous input.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Cameron C; Sheridan, Scott C

2018-07-01

Temperature-mortality relationships are nonlinear, time-lagged, and can vary depending on the time of year and geographic location, all of which limits the applicability of simple regression models in describing these associations. This research demonstrates the utility of an alternative method for modeling such complex relationships that has gained recent traction in other environmental fields: nonlinear autoregressive models with exogenous input (NARX models). All-cause mortality data and multiple temperature-based data sets were gathered from 41 different US cities, for the period 1975-2010, and subjected to ensemble NARX modeling. Models generally performed better in larger cities and during the winter season. Across the US, median absolute percentage errors were 10% (ranging from 4% to 15% in various cities), the average improvement in the r-squared over that of a simple persistence model was 17% (6-24%), and the hit rate for modeling spike days in mortality (>80th percentile) was 54% (34-71%). Mortality responded acutely to hot summer days, peaking at 0-2 days of lag before dropping precipitously, and there was an extended mortality response to cold winter days, peaking at 2-4 days of lag and dropping slowly and continuing for multiple weeks. Spring and autumn showed both of the aforementioned temperature-mortality relationships, but generally to a lesser magnitude than what was seen in summer or winter. When compared to distributed lag nonlinear models, NARX model output was nearly identical. These results highlight the applicability of NARX models for use in modeling complex and time-dependent relationships for various applications in epidemiology and environmental sciences. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

2016-09-01

Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Projections of Seasonal Patterns in Temperature- Related Deaths for Manhattan, New York

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2013-01-01

Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

Spatial Ecology of Blanding’s Turtles (Emydoidea blandingii) in Southcentral New Hampshire with Implications to Road Mortality

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walston, Leroy J.; Najjar, Stephen J.; LaGory, Kirk E.; Drake, Sean M.

2015-06-27

Understanding the spatial ecology and habitat requirements of rare turtle species and the factors that threaten their populations is important for the success of long-term conservation programs. We present results on an eight-year field study in which we used radiotelemetry to monitor the activity and habitat use of 23 adult (male, n = 7; female, n = 16) Blanding’s turtles in southcentral New Hampshire. We found that females occupied home ranges (as defined by minimum convex polygons) that were approximately two times larger than the home ranges of males. Despite the sex difference in home range size, we found no sex difference in core area size (defined as the 50% kernel density estimate). We found that activity patterns varied by season, with increased activity each month after hibernation, and peak activity coinciding with the late spring-early summer nesting season. We observed sex-based and seasonal differences in wetland use. Males appeared to prefer emergent and scrub-shrub wetlands in each season, whereas females preferred scrub-shrub wetlands in spring and ponds in summer and fall. We identified road mortality risk as a potentially important threat for this population because females crossed roads ten times more frequently than males (based on proportion of observations). The preservation of wetland networks, as well as the implementation of measures to minimize road mortality, are important considerations for the long-term persistence of this population.

Influenza activity in Europe during eight seasons (1999–2007: an evaluation of the indicators used to measure activity and an assessment of the timing, length and course of peak activity (spread across Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meijer Adam

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS has collected clinical and virological data on influenza since 1996 in an increasing number of countries. The EISS dataset was used to characterise important epidemiological features of influenza activity in Europe during eight winters (1999–2007. The following questions were addressed: 1 are the sentinel clinical reports a good measure of influenza activity? 2 how long is a typical influenza season in Europe? 3 is there a west-east and/or south-north course of peak activity ('spread' of influenza in Europe? Methods Influenza activity was measured by collecting data from sentinel general practitioners (GPs and reports by national reference laboratories. The sentinel reports were first evaluated by comparing them to the laboratory reports and were then used to assess the timing and spread of influenza activity across Europe during eight seasons. Results We found a good match between the clinical sentinel data and laboratory reports of influenza collected by sentinel physicians (overall match of 72% for +/- 1 week difference. We also found a moderate to good match between the clinical sentinel data and laboratory reports of influenza from non-sentinel sources (overall match of 60% for +/- 1 week. There were no statistically significant differences between countries using ILI (influenza-like illness or ARI (acute respiratory disease as case definition. When looking at the peak-weeks of clinical activity, the average length of an influenza season in Europe was 15.6 weeks (median 15 weeks; range 12–19 weeks. Plotting the peak weeks of clinical influenza activity reported by sentinel GPs against the longitude or latitude of each country indicated that there was a west-east spread of peak activity (spread of influenza across Europe in four winters (2001–2002, 2002–2003, 2003–2004 and 2004–2005 and a south-north spread in three winters (2001–2002, 2004–2005 and 2006�

Seasonal mortality and sequential density dependence in a migratory bird

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rakhimberdiev, Eldar; van den Hout, Piet J.; Brugge, Maarten; Spaans, Bernard; Piersma, Theunis

2015-01-01

Migratory bird populations may be limited during one or more seasons, and thus at one or more places, but there is a dearth of empirical examples of this possibility. We analyse seasonal survival in a migratory shellfish-eating shorebird (red knot Calidris canutus islandica) during a series of years

Season of sampling and season of birth influence serotonin metabolite levels in human cerebrospinal fluid.

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Jurjen J Luykx

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Animal studies have revealed seasonal patterns in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF monoamine (MA turnover. In humans, no study had systematically assessed seasonal patterns in CSF MA turnover in a large set of healthy adults. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Standardized amounts of CSF were prospectively collected from 223 healthy individuals undergoing spinal anesthesia for minor surgical procedures. The metabolites of serotonin (5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid, 5-HIAA, dopamine (homovanillic acid, HVA and norepinephrine (3-methoxy-4-hydroxyphenylglycol, MPHG were measured using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC. Concentration measurements by sampling and birth dates were modeled using a non-linear quantile cosine function and locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOESS, span = 0.75. The cosine model showed a unimodal season of sampling 5-HIAA zenith in April and a nadir in October (p-value of the amplitude of the cosine = 0.00050, with predicted maximum (PC(max and minimum (PC(min concentrations of 173 and 108 nmol/L, respectively, implying a 60% increase from trough to peak. Season of birth showed a unimodal 5-HIAA zenith in May and a nadir in November (p = 0.00339; PC(max = 172 and PC(min = 126. The non-parametric LOESS showed a similar pattern to the cosine in both season of sampling and season of birth models, validating the cosine model. A final model including both sampling and birth months demonstrated that both sampling and birth seasons were independent predictors of 5-HIAA concentrations. CONCLUSION: In subjects without mental illness, 5-HT turnover shows circannual variation by season of sampling as well as season of birth, with peaks in spring and troughs in fall.

Secular trends in seasonal variation in birth weight

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Camilla Bjørn; Gamborg, M; Raymond, K

2015-01-01

and phase of the yearly cycles to change. RESULTS: There was a clear seasonal pattern in BW which, however, changed gradually across the study period. The highest BWs were seen during fall (September - October) from 1936 to 1963, but a new peak gradually grew from the early 1940s during early summer (May...... again. Sunshine did not explain the seasonal variation in BW. CONCLUSION: There was a clear seasonal pattern in BW in Denmark 1936-1989, which however changed across the study period. Throughout the study period we observed a peak in BW during the fall, but gradually, starting in the early 1940s...

Scrub typhus in Uttarakhand & adjoining Uttar Pradesh: Seasonality, clinical presentations & predictors of mortality.

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Bhargava, Anurag; Kaushik, Reshma; Kaushik, Rajeev Mohan; Sharma, Anita; Ahmad, Sohaib; Dhar, Minakshi; Mittal, Garima; Khanduri, Sushant; Pant, Priyannk; Kakkar, Rajesh

2016-12-01

Scrub typhus is a re-emerging mite-borne rickettsiosis, which continues to be underdiagnosed, with lethal consequences. The present study was conducted to determine the seasonality, clinical presentation and predictors of mortality in patients with scrub typhus at a tertiary care teaching hospital in northern India. Scrub typhus was suspected in patients attending the hospital as per the standard case definition and serological evidence was obtained by performing an IgM ELISA. A total of 284 patients with scrub typhus from urban and rural areas were seen, predominantly from July to November. The most common clinical presentation was a bilateral community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), which resembled pneumonia due to atypical pathogens and often progressed to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). An acute undifferentiated febrile illness (AUFI) or a febrile illness associated with altered sensorium, aseptic meningitis, shock, abdominal pain, gastrointestinal bleeding or jaundice was also seen. Eschars were seen in 17 per cent of patients, and thrombocytopenia, transaminitis and azotaemia were frequent. There were 24 deaths (8.5%) caused predominantly by ARDS and multi-organ dysfunction. The mortality in patients with ARDS was high (37%). ARDS [odds ratio (OR)=38.29, 95% confidence interval (CI): 9.93, 147.71] and acute kidney injury (OR=8.30, 95% CI: 2.21, 31.21) were the major predictors of death. The present findings indicate that scrub typhus may be considered a cause of CAP, ARDS, AUFI or a febrile illness with multisystem involvement, in Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, especially from July to November. Empiric therapy of CAP may include doxycycline or azithromycin to ensure coverage of underlying unsuspected scrub typhus.

Scrub typhus in Uttarakhand & adjoining Uttar Pradesh: Seasonality, clinical presentations & predictors of mortality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anurag Bhargava

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Background & objectives: Scrub typhus is a re-emerging mite-borne rickettsiosis, which continues to be underdiagnosed, with lethal consequences. The present study was conducted to determine the seasonality, clinical presentation and predictors of mortality in patients with scrub typhus at a tertiary care teaching hospital in northern India. Methods: Scrub typhus was suspected in patients attending the hospital as per the standard case definition and serological evidence was obtained by performing an IgM ELISA. Results: A total of 284 patients with scrub typhus from urban and rural areas were seen, predominantly from July to November. The most common clinical presentation was a bilateral community-acquired pneumonia (CAP, which resembled pneumonia due to atypical pathogens and often progressed to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS. An acute undifferentiated febrile illness (AUFI or a febrile illness associated with altered sensorium, aseptic meningitis, shock, abdominal pain, gastrointestinal bleeding or jaundice was also seen. Eschars were seen in 17 per cent of patients, and thrombocytopenia, transaminitis and azotaemia were frequent. There were 24 deaths (8.5% caused predominantly by ARDS and multi-organ dysfunction. The mortality in patients with ARDS was high (37%. ARDS [odds ratio (OR=38.29, 95% confidence interval (CI: 9.93, 147.71] and acute kidney injury (OR=8.30, 95% CI: 2.21, 31.21 were the major predictors of death. Interpretation & conclusions: The present findings indicate that scrub typhus may be considered a cause of CAP, ARDS, AUFI or a febrile illness with multisystem involvement, in Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, especially from July to November. Empiric therapy of CAP may include doxycycline or azithromycin to ensure coverage of underlying unsuspected scrub typhus.

Short-term community dynamics in seasonal and hyperseasonal cerrados

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MV. Cianciaruso

Full Text Available In South America, the largest seasonal savanna region is the Brazilian cerrado. Our aim was to study temporal changes in some community descriptors, such as floristic composition, richness, species density, plant density, and cylindrical volume, in a seasonal cerrado, comparing it to a nearby hyperseasonal cerrado. In four different seasons, we placed randomly ten 1 m² quadrats in each vegetation form and sampled all the vascular plants. Seasonal changes in floristic composition, species density, and plant density were less pronounced in the seasonal than in the hyperseasonal cerrado. Floristic similarity between the vegetation forms was lower when the hyperseasonal cerrado was waterlogged. Richness and species density were higher in the seasonal cerrado, which reached its biomass peak at mid rainy season. The hyperseasonal cerrado, in turn, reached its biomass peak at early rainy season and, despite the waterlogging, maintained it until late rainy season. In the hyperseasonal cerrado, waterlogging acts as an environmental filter restricting the number of cerrado species able to withstand it. The seasonal cerrado community was more stable than the hyperseasonal one. Our results corroborated the idea that changes in the environmental filters will affect floristic composition and community structure in savannas.

Trends in land surface phenology and atmospheric CO2 seasonality in the Northern Hemisphere terrestrial ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Gonsamo, A.; Chen, J. M.

2017-12-01

Northern terrestrial ecosystems have shown global warming-induced advances in start, delays in end, and thus increased lengths of growing season and gross photosynthesis in recent decades. The tradeoffs between seasonal dynamics of two opposing fluxes, CO2 uptake through photosynthesis and release through respiration, determine the influence of the terrestrial ecosystems on the atmospheric CO2 concentration and 13C/12C isotope ratio seasonality. Atmospheric CO2 and 13C/12C seasonality is controlled by vegetation phenology, but is not identical because growth will typically commence some time before and terminate some time after the net carbon exchange changes sign in spring and autumn, respectively. Here, we use 34-year satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) observations to determine how changes in vegetation productivity and phenology affect both the atmospheric CO2 and 13C/12C seasonality. Differences and similarities in recent trends of CO2 and 13C/12C seasonality and vegetation phenology will be discussed. Furthermore, we use the NDVI observations, and atmospheric CO2 and 13C/12C data to show the trends and variability of the timing of peak season plant activity. Preliminary results show that the peak season plant activity of the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical terrestrial ecosystems is shifting towards spring, largely in response to the warming-induced advance of the start of growing season. Besides, the spring-ward shift of the peak plant activity is contributing the most to the increasing peak season productivity. In other words, earlier start of growing season is highly linked to earlier arrival of peak of season and higher NDVI. Changes in the timing of peak season plant activity are expected to disrupt the synchrony of biotic interaction and exert strong biophysical feedbacks on climate by modifying the surface albedo and energy budget.

Temperature extremes and infant mortality in Bangladesh: Hotter months, lower mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Babalola, Olufemi; Razzaque, Abdur; Bishai, David

2018-01-01

Our study aims to obtain estimates of the size effects of temperature extremes on infant mortality in Bangladesh using monthly time series data. Data on temperature, child and infant mortality were obtained for Matlab district of rural Bangladesh for January 1982 to December 2008 encompassing 49,426 infant deaths. To investigate the relationship between mortality and temperature, we adopted a regression with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) errors model of seasonally adjusted temperature and mortality data. The relationship between monthly mean and maximum temperature on infant mortality was tested at 0 and 1 month lags respectively. Furthermore, our analysis was stratified to determine if the results differed by gender (boys versus girls) and by age (neonates (≤ 30 days) versus post neonates (>30days and Bangladesh. Each degree Celsius increase in mean monthly temperature reduced monthly mortality by 3.672 (SE 1.544, pBangladesh. This may reflect a more heightened sensitivity of infants to hypothermia than hyperthermia in this environment.

Seasonality of Suicidal Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, Jong-Min; Okusaga, Olaoluwa; Postolache, Teodor T.

2012-01-01

A seasonal suicide peak in spring is highly replicated, but its specific cause is unknown. We reviewed the literature on suicide risk factors which can be associated with seasonal variation of suicide rates, assessing published articles from 1979 to 2011. Such risk factors include environmental determinants, including physical, chemical, and biological factors. We also summarized the influence of potential demographic and clinical characteristics such as age, gender, month of birth, socioeconomic status, methods of prior suicide attempt, and comorbid psychiatric and medical diseases. Comprehensive evaluation of risk factors which could be linked to the seasonal variation in suicide is important, not only to identify the major driving force for the seasonality of suicide, but also could lead to better suicide prevention in general. PMID:22470308

Seasonal cycles of pelagic production and consumption

Science.gov (United States)

Longhurst, Alan

Comprehensive seasonal cycles of production and consumption in the pelagial require the ocean to be partitioned. This can be done rationally at two levels: into four primary ecological domains (three oceanic and one coastal), or about fifty biogeochemical provinces. The domains differ in their characteristic seasonal cycles of stability, nutrient supply and illumination, while provinces are defined by ocean currents, fronts, topography and recurrent features in the sea surface chlorophyll field. For each of these compartments, seasonal cycles of photic depth, primary production and accumulation (or loss) of algal biomass were obtained from the climatological CZCS chlorophyll field and other data and these, together with mixed layer depths, rendered characteristic seasonal cycles of production and consumption, which can be grouped into eight models: i - polar irradiance-mediated production peak; ii - nutrient-limited spring production peak; iii - winter-spring production with nutrient limitation; iv - small amplitude response to trade wind seasonality; v - large amplitude response to monsoon reversal; vi - canonical spring-fall blooms of mid-latitude continental shelves; vii - topography-forced summer production; viii - intermittent production at coastal divergences. For higher latitudes, these models suggest that the observed late-summer ‘blooms’ result not from a renewal of primary production rate, but from a relaxation of grazing pressure; in mid-latitudes, the observed ‘winter’ bloom represents chlorophyll accumulation at a season when loss terms are apparently smaller than during the period of peak primary production rate which occurs later, in spring. Where an episodic seasonal increase in rate of primary production occurs, as in the Arabian Sea, algal biomass accumulation may brief, lasting only until consumption is fully re-established. Only in the low latitude oligotrophic ocean are production and consumption perennially and closely coupled.

The effect of seasonality on burn incidence, severity and outcome in Central Malawi.

Science.gov (United States)

Tyson, Anna F; Gallaher, Jared; Mjuweni, Stephen; Cairns, Bruce A; Charles, Anthony G

2017-08-01

In much of the world, burns are more common in cold months. However, few studies have described the seasonality of burns in sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines the effect of seasonality on the incidence and outcome of burns in central Malawi. A retrospective analysis was performed at Kamuzu Central Hospital and included all patients admitted from May 2011 to August 2014. Demographic data, burn mechanism, total body surface area (%TBSA), and mortality were analyzed. Seasons were categorized as Rainy (December-February), Lush (March-May), Cold (June-August) and Hot (September-November). A negative binomial regression was used to assess the effect of seasonality on burn incidence. This was performed using both the raw and deseasonalized data in order to evaluate for trends not attributable to random fluctuation. A total of 905 patients were included. Flame (38%) and Scald (59%) burns were the most common mechanism. More burns occurred during the cold season (41% vs 19-20% in the other seasons). Overall mortality was 19%. Only the cold season had a statistically significant increase in burn . The incidence rate ratios (IRR) for the hot, lush, and cold seasons were 0.94 (CI 0.6-1.32), 1.02 (CI 0.72-1.45) and 1.6 (CI 1.17-2.19), respectively, when compared to the rainy season. Burn severity and mortality did not differ between seasons. The results of this study demonstrate the year-round phenomenon of burns treated at our institution, and highlights the slight predominance of burns during the cold season. These data can be used to guide prevention strategies, with special attention to the implications of the increased burn incidence during the cold season. Though burn severity and mortality remain relatively unchanged between seasons, recognizing the seasonal variability in incidence of burns is critical for resource allocation in this low-income setting. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Pandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications? Methods We estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the UK, and the USA for people older than 44 years of age. We modeled variation with age, and standardized estimates to allow direct comparison across age groups and countries. Attack rate data for four pandemics were assembled. Results For nearly all seasons, an exponential model characterized mortality data extremely well. For seasons of emergence and a variable number of seasons following, however, a subpopulation above a threshold age invariably enjoyed reduced mortality. 'Immune escape', a stepwise increase in mortality among the oldest elderly, was observed a number of seasons after both the A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) pandemics. The number of seasons from emergence to escape varied by country. For the latter pandemic, mortality rates in four countries increased for younger age groups but only in the season following that of emergence. Adaptation to both emergent viruses was apparent as a progressive decrease in mortality rates, which, with two exceptions, was seen only in younger age groups. Pandemic attack rate variation with age was estimated to be similar across four pandemics with very different mortality impact. Conclusions In all influenza pandemics of the 20th century, emergent viruses resembled those that had circulated previously within the lifespan of then-living people. Such individuals were relatively immune to the emergent strain, but this immunity waned with mutation of the emergent virus. An immune subpopulation complicates and may invalidate vaccine trials. Pandemic influenza does not 'shift' mortality to younger age groups; rather, the mortality level is reset by the virulence

Peaking for optimal performance: Research limitations and future directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Pyne, David B; Mujika, Iñigo; Reilly, Thomas

2009-02-01

A key element of the physical preparation of athletes is the taper period in the weeks immediately preceding competition. Existing research has defined the taper, identified various forms used in contemporary sport, and examined the prescription of training volume, load, intensity, duration, and type (progressive or step). Current limitations include: the lack of studies on team, combative, racquet, and precision (target) sports; the relatively small number of randomized controlled trials; the narrow focus on a single competition (single peak) compared with multiple peaking for weekly, multi-day or multiple events; and limited understanding of the physiological, neuromuscular, and biomechanical basis of the taper. Future research should address these limitations, together with the influence of prior training on optimal tapering strategies, and the interactions between the taper and long-haul travel, heat, and altitude. Practitioners seek information on how to prescribe tapers from season to season during an athlete's career, or a team's progression through a domestic league season, or multi-year Olympic or World Cup cycle. Practical guidelines for planning effective tapers for the Vancouver 2010 and London 2012 Olympics will evolve from both experimental investigations and modelling of successful tapers currently employed in a wide range of sports.

Meteorological Influences on the Seasonality of Lyme Disease in the United States

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Moore, Sean M.; Eisen, Rebecca J.; Monaghan, Andrew; Mead, Paul

2014-01-01

Lyme disease (Borrelia burgdorferi infection) is the most common vector-transmitted disease in the United States. The majority of human Lyme disease (LD) cases occur in the summer months, but the timing of the peak occurrence varies geographically and from year to year. We calculated the beginning, peak, end, and duration of the main LD season in 12 highly endemic states from 1992 to 2007 and then examined the association between the timing of these seasonal variables and several meteorological variables. An earlier beginning to the LD season was positively associated with higher cumulative growing degree days through Week 20, lower cumulative precipitation, a lower saturation deficit, and proximity to the Atlantic coast. The timing of the peak and duration of the LD season were also associated with cumulative growing degree days, saturation deficit, and cumulative precipitation, but no meteorological predictors adequately explained the timing of the end of the LD season. PMID:24470565

Cool seasons are related to poor prognosis in patients with infective endocarditis

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Su-Jung; Chao, Tze-Fan; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Hsu, Tsui-Lieh; Yu, Wen-Chung; Leu, Hsin-Bang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Chen, Shih-Ann

2012-09-01

Many cardiac diseases demonstrate seasonal variations in the incidence and mortality. This study was designed to investigate whether the mortality of infective endocarditis (IE) was higher in cool seasons and to evaluate the effects of cool climate for IE. We enrolled 100 IE patients with vegetations in our hospital. The temperatures of the IE episodes were defined as the monthly average temperatures of the admission days. The average temperatures in the cool (fall/winter) and warm seasons (spring/summer) were 19.2°C and 27.6°C, respectively. In addition, patients admitted with the diagnosis of IE were identified from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) and the in-hospital mortality rates in cool and warm seasons were compared to validate the findings derived from the data of our hospital. The mortality rate for IE was significantly higher in fall/winter than in spring/summer which presents consistently in the patient population of our hospital (32.7% versus 12.5%, p = 0.017) and from NHIRD (10.4% versus 4.6%, p = 0.019). IE episodes which occurred during cool seasons presented with a higher rate of heart failure (44.2% versus 22.9%, p = 0.025) and D-dimer level (5.5 ± 3.8 versus 2.4 ± 1.8 μg/ml, p = 0.017) at admission than that of warm seasons. These results may reflect the impact of temperatures during the pre-hospitalized period on the disease process. In the multivariate analysis, Staphylococcal infection, left ventricular hypertrophy, left ventricular systolic dysfunction and temperature were the independent predictors of mortalities in IE patients.

Effects of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Hefei city, China

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Jing; Xiao, Chang-chun; Li, Yu-rong; Zhang, Jun-qing; Zhai, Hao-yuan; Geng, Xi-ya; Ding, Rui; Zhai, Jin-xia

2018-05-01

Although several studies indicated an association between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and mortality, the results about modifiers are inconsistent, and few studies were conducted in developing inland country. This study aims to evaluate the effects of DTR on cause-specific mortality and whether season, gender, or age might modify any association in Hefei city, China, during 2007-2016. Quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression models combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) were applied to evaluate the relationships between DTR and non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. We observed a J-shaped relationship between DTR and cause-specific mortality. With a DTR of 8.3 °C as the reference, the cumulative effects of extremely high DTR were significantly higher for all types of mortality than effects of lower or moderate DTR in full year. When stratified by season, extremely high DTR in spring had a greater impact on all cause-specific mortality than other three seasons. Male and the elderly (≥ 65 years) were consistently more susceptible to extremely high DTR effect than female and the youth (groups from extremely high DTR especially in the spring.

Enhancing Seasonal Water Outlooks: Needs and Opportunities in the Critical Runoff Season

Science.gov (United States)

Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Yocum, H.; Stokes, M.; Miskus, D.

2017-12-01

The runoff season is a critical period for the management of water supply in the western U.S., where in many places over 70% of the annual runoff occurs in the snowmelt period. Managing not only the volume, but the intra-seasonal timing of the runoff is important for optimizing storage, as well as achieving other goals such as mitigating flood risk, and providing peak flows for riparian habitat management, for example, for endangered species. Western river forecast centers produce volume forecasts for western reservoirs that are key input into many water supply decisions, and also short term river forecasts out to 10 days. The early volume forecasts each year typically begin in December, and are updated throughout the winter and into the runoff season (April-July for many areas, but varies). This presentation will discuss opportunities for enhancing this existing suite of RFC water outlooks, including the needs for and potential use for "intraseasonal" products beyond those provided by the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system and the volume forecasts. While precipitation outlooks have little skill for many areas and seasons, and may not contribute significantly to the outlook, late winter and spring temperature forecasts have meaningful skill in certain areas and sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales. This current skill in CPC temperature outlooks is an opportunity to translate these products into information about the snowpack and potential runoff timing, even where the skill in precipitation is low. Temperature is important for whether precipitation falls as snow or rain, which is critical for streamflow forecasts, especially in the melt season in snowpack-dependent watersheds. There is a need for better outlooks of the evolution of snowpack, conditions influencing the April-July runoff, and the timing of spring peak or shape of the spring hydrograph. The presentation will also discuss a our work with stakeholders of the River Forecast Centers and the NIDIS

Direct and indirect mortality in Florida during the 2004 hurricane season

Science.gov (United States)

McKinney, Nathan; Houser, Chris; Meyer-Arendt, Klaus

2011-07-01

Previous studies have shown that natural disasters, and hurricanes in particular, have led to more deaths than those usually documented in short post-storm surveys. Such indirect deaths, thought to be related to dietary, stress or pre-existing medical conditions, can exceed the number of direct deaths and may persist for weeks or even months beyond the event itself. In the present study, cumulative sum of deviations plots are used to quantify the number of direct and indirect deaths resulting from Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne that made landfall in Florida in 2004. Results suggest that there was an elevated mortality for up to 2 months following each storm, resulting in a total of 624 direct and indirect deaths attributable to the storm. Trauma-related deaths that can be associated directly with the storm account for only ˜4% of the total storm-related mortality, while indirect mortality accounts for most storm-related deaths. Specifically, a large percentage of the elevated mortality was associated with heart (34%) and cancer-related deaths (19%), while diabetes (5%) and accident-related deaths (9%) account for a smaller but still significant percentage of the elevated mortality. The results further suggest that the elevated mortality was the result of additional deaths that would not have otherwise occurred within that 5 month period, and not simply a clustering of deaths that were inevitable between 1 August and 31 December 2004. The elevated mortality identified in this study is significantly greater than the official count of 31 direct and 113 indirect deaths resulting from the four hurricanes combined. This suggests a need for improved mortality counts and surveillance in order to better evaluate and identify effective prevention policies, and to identify preventable deaths.

The Short-Term Effects of Visibility and Haze on Mortality in a Coastal City of China: A Time-Series Study

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Shaohua Gu

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Few studies have been conducted to investigate the acute health effects of visibility and haze, which may be regarded as proxy indicators of ambient air pollution. We used a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM combined with quasi-Poisson regression to estimate the relationship between visibility, haze and mortality in Ningbo, a coastal city of China. We found that the mortality risk of visibility was statistically significant only on the current day, while the risk of haze and PM10 peaked on the second day and could last for three days. When the visibility was less than 10 km, each 1 km decrease of visibility at lag 0 day was associated with a 0.78% (95% CI: 0.22–1.36% increase in total mortality and a 1.61% (95% CI: 0.39–2.85% increase in respiratory mortality. The excess risk of haze at lag 0–2 days on total mortality, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was 7.76% (95% CI: 3.29–12.42%, 7.73% (95% CI: 0.12–15.92% and 17.77% (95% CI: 7.64–28.86%, respectively. Greater effects of air pollution were observed during the cold season than in the warm season, and the elderly were at higher risk compared to youths. The effects of visibility and haze were attenuated by single pollutants. These findings suggest that visibility and haze could be used as surrogates of air quality where pollutant data are scarce, and strengthen the evidence to develop policy to control air pollution and protect vulnerable populations.

Mortality, diarrhea and respiratory disease in Danish dairy heifer calves

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Reiten, M.; Rousing, T.; Thomsen, P. T.

2018-01-01

system (conventional/organic), season (summer/winter) and calf mortality risk, diarrhea, signs of respiratory disease and ocular discharge, respectively, for dairy heifer calves aged 0–180 days. Sixty Danish dairy herds, 30 conventional and 30 organic, were visited once during summer and once during......Diarrhea and respiratory disease are major health problems for dairy calves, often causing calf mortality. Previous studies have found calf mortality to be higher in organic dairy herds compared to conventional herds. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between production...... variables and in certain age groups, dependent on production system and season....

T198. A SCHIZOPHRENIA-LIKE BIRTH SEASONALITY AMONG MATHEMATICIANS AND AN OPPOSITE SEASONALITY AMONG BIOLOGISTS: MORE EVIDENCE IMPLICATING BIMODAL RHYTHMS OF GENERAL BIRTHS

Science.gov (United States)

Marzullo, Giovanni

2018-01-01

Abstract Background Based on early-20th century births, a pre-electric illumination time of comparatively normal human exposure to sunlight, studies of schizophrenia (SCZ) found a birth seasonality with two opposite effects: a SCZ-liability peak among subjects born around late-February and an equally significant SCZ-resistance peak among those born six months later, around late-August. We previously investigated this rhythm in connection with a sunlight-dependent bimodal rhythm of general births that, prior to the full advent of electric lighting (but not later), occurred ubiquitously in non-equatorial parts of the world. We found that the SCZ-liability peak coincided with a first, Feb-Mar peak of general-population births (the GP1) while the SCZ-resistance peak coincided with a second, Aug-Sep peak of those births (the GP2). Moreover, in a study of hand and visual-field preferences among professional baseball players, we found the SCZ-liability, GP1-coincident seasonality among players with preferences denoting cerebral asymmetry “deficits” (CADs) and the SCZ-resistance, GP2-coincident seasonality among those with preferences denoting cerebral asymmetry “excesses.” Also, in a study suggested by associations of CADs with artistic abilities, we found the SCZ-liability, GP1-coincident seasonality among groups representing visual, performing and literary art “creators” (VPL-Artists) and the SCZ-resistance, GP2-coincident seasonality among groups representing art critics, historians, curators and other art “observers” (Para-Artists). Together, these findings suggested, as one possibility (but see later), that the SCZ-liability, CAD effects and artistic abilities could all three represent traits genetically or otherwise selected into the GP1 excess population of newborns and out of the GP2 population. The present study of “scientists” was initially aimed at the purported arts/science antithesis. Methods Birth seasonalities were examined among early

Seasonal and daily plasma corticosterone rhythms in American toads, Bufo americanus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pancak, M.K.; Taylor, D.H.

1983-01-01

Concentrations of corticosterone were measured in the plasma of American toads, Bufo americanus, on a seasonal basis using a radioimmunoassay technique. Two populations of toads, maintained under different light conditions, were monitored to observe the effects of photoperiod on the seasonal rhythm of plasma corticosterone. Under a natural photoperiod toads demonstrated a rhythm consisting of a spring peak and a fall peak in corticosterone concentration. Toads maintained under a 12L:12D photoperiod all year round demonstrated a similar rhythm with peaks in the spring and fall. This suggests that an endogenous (circannual) rhythm of corticosterone may be playing an important role in the seasonal change of overt behavior and physiology of Bufo americanus. A daily rhythm of corticosterone was also detected in toads when blood samples were taken every 4 hr. When compared to a previously published circadian rhythm study of locomotor activity, the surge in corticosterone concentration for the day occurred at 1730 just prior to the peak in locomotor activity

Host reproductive phenology drives seasonal patterns of host use in mosquitoes.

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Nathan D Burkett-Cadena

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Seasonal shifts in host use by mosquitoes from birds to mammals drive the timing and intensity of annual epidemics of mosquito-borne viruses, such as West Nile virus, in North America. The biological mechanism underlying these shifts has been a matter of debate, with hypotheses falling into two camps: (1 the shift is driven by changes in host abundance, or (2 the shift is driven by seasonal changes in the foraging behavior of mosquitoes. Here we explored the idea that seasonal changes in host use by mosquitoes are driven by temporal patterns of host reproduction. We investigated the relationship between seasonal patterns of host use by mosquitoes and host reproductive phenology by examining a seven-year dataset of blood meal identifications from a site in Tuskegee National Forest, Alabama USA and data on reproduction from the most commonly utilized endothermic (white-tailed deer, great blue heron, yellow-crowned night heron and ectothermic (frogs hosts. Our analysis revealed that feeding on each host peaked during periods of reproductive activity. Specifically, mosquitoes utilized herons in the spring and early summer, during periods of peak nest occupancy, whereas deer were fed upon most during the late summer and fall, the period corresponding to the peak in births for deer. For frogs, however, feeding on early- and late-season breeders paralleled peaks in male vocalization. We demonstrate for the first time that seasonal patterns of host use by mosquitoes track the reproductive phenology of the hosts. Peaks in relative mosquito feeding on each host during reproductive phases are likely the result of increased tolerance and decreased vigilance to attacking mosquitoes by nestlings and brooding adults (avian hosts, quiescent young (avian and mammalian hosts, and mate-seeking males (frogs.

Is precipitation a predictor of mortality in Bangladesh? A multi-stratified analysis in a South Asian monsoon climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Burkart, Katrin; Kinney, Patrick

2016-05-15

While numerous studies have assessed the association between temperature and mortality in various locations, few have addressed the relationship between precipitation and mortality. Given the high amounts of rainfall in many tropical monsoon areas and the often seasonally pronounced differences, there might be a potentially strong impact on health outcomes and death. In this study, we investigated the association between precipitation and daily death counts in Bangladesh from 2003 to 2007 using regression models with a quasipoisson distribution adjusting for long-term time and seasonal trends, day of the month, age and perceived temperature. Effects were assessed for all ages, the elderly and by gender. During the dry season a sharp increase in death risk was found at very high precipitation amounts which are most likely to be cyclone-related. This cyclone effect was most pronounced for females at the immediate day with an increase of 18.7% (3.8-35.6%) in non-external cause mortality per mm precipitation above 5mm. At longer lags we found a negative association between precipitation and mortality indicating some kind of dry effect which was more pronounced for the elderly with a mortality increase of 4.4% (2.6-6.2%) per mm decrease in precipitation. During the rainy season, we observed a protective effect of rainfall which was strongest during periods of seasonally high equivalent temperatures with a decrease in mortality of 4.0% (2.3-5.6%) per mm increase in precipitation on the immediate day. The observed associations between precipitation and mortality differed by season, age and gender. Generally, a strong short-term increase in mortality was associated with cyclonic activity during the dry season, while ongoing low rainfall seemed to have an adverse impact at higher lags. During the rainy season, precipitation seemed to mitigate heat effects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States.

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Jeffrey Shaman

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent reanalysis of laboratory experiments indicates that absolute humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here, we extend these findings to the human population level, showing that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low absolute humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological model, in which observed absolute humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. The model results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by absolute humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. These findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that absolute humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions.

Effects of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Hefei city, China

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Jing; Xiao, Chang-chun; Li, Yu-rong; Zhang, Jun-qing; Zhai, Hao-yuan; Geng, Xi-ya; Ding, Rui; Zhai, Jin-xia

2017-12-01

Although several studies indicated an association between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and mortality, the results about modifiers are inconsistent, and few studies were conducted in developing inland country. This study aims to evaluate the effects of DTR on cause-specific mortality and whether season, gender, or age might modify any association in Hefei city, China, during 2007-2016. Quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression models combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) were applied to evaluate the relationships between DTR and non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. We observed a J-shaped relationship between DTR and cause-specific mortality. With a DTR of 8.3 °C as the reference, the cumulative effects of extremely high DTR were significantly higher for all types of mortality than effects of lower or moderate DTR in full year. When stratified by season, extremely high DTR in spring had a greater impact on all cause-specific mortality than other three seasons. Male and the elderly (≥ 65 years) were consistently more susceptible to extremely high DTR effect than female and the youth (< 65 years) for non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality. To the contrary, female and the youth were more susceptible to extremely high DTR effect than male and the elderly for respiratory morality. The study suggests that extremely high DTR is a potential trigger for non-accidental mortality in Hefei city, China. Our findings also highlight the importance of protecting susceptible groups from extremely high DTR especially in the spring.

Risk of Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in Relation to Temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Mathes, Robert; Ito, Kazuhiko; Matte, Thomas

2013-01-01

Objective To examine the effects of temperature on cardiovascular-related (CVD) morbidity and mortality among New York City (NYC) residents. Introduction Extreme temperatures are consistently shown to have an effect on CVD-related mortality [1, 2]. A large multi-city study of mortality demonstrated a cold-day and hot-day weather effect on CVD-related deaths, with the larger impact occurring on the coldest days [3]. In contrast, the association between weather and CVD-related morbidity is less clear [4, 5]. The purpose of this study is to characterize the effect of temperature on CVD-related emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and mortality on a large, heterogeneous population. Additionally, we conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the impact of air pollutants, specifically fine particulates (PM2.5) and ozone (O3), along with temperature, on CVD outcomes. Methods We analyzed daily weather conditions, ED visits classified as CVD-related based on chief complaint text, hospitalizations, and natural cause deaths that occurred in NYC between 2002 and 2006. ED visits were obtained from data reported daily to the city health department for syndromic surveillance. Inpatient admissions were obtained from the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System, a data reporting system developed by New York State. Mortality data were obtained from the NYC Office of Vital Statistics. Data for PM2.5 and O3 were obtained from all available air quality monitors within the five boroughs of NYC. To estimate risk of CVD morbidity and mortality, we used generalized linear models using a Poisson distribution to calculate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). A non-linear distributed lag was used to model mean temperature in order to allow for its effect on the same day and on subsequent days. Models were fit separately for cold season (October through March) and warm season (April through September) given season may modify the effect on CVD

Seasonal growth and mortality of juveniles of Lampsilis fasciola (Bivalvia: Unionidae) released to a fish hatchery raceway

Science.gov (United States)

Hanlon, Shane D.; Neves, Richard J.

2006-01-01

Recent efforts to restore remnant or extirpated populations of freshwater mussels have focused on artificial propagation as an effective and practical conservation strategy. Although artificially cultured juveniles have been produced and released to the wild at various times of the year, no study has investigated the best time of year to release these juveniles. Newly metamorphosed juveniles of the wavyrayed lampmussel (Lampsilis fasciola) were released into a stream-fed fish hatchery raceway during March, June, and September. Growth and survival rates were measured 32, 52, 72, and 92 days post-metamorphosis. Juveniles released in June experienced the greatest growth and survival rates. Juveniles released in September and March experienced high mortality within the first month of release and exhibited poor growth in the cool water conditions typical of those seasons. Overwinter survival exhibited a size-dependent relationship.

Analyzing seasonality of tuberculosis across Indian states and union territories

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Pankaj Narula

2015-12-01

Full Text Available A significant seasonal variation in tuberculosis (TB is observed in north India during 2006–2011, particularly in states like Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan. To quantify the seasonal variation, we measure average amplitude (peak to trough distance across seasons in smear positive cases of TB and observe that it is maximum for Himachal Pradesh (40.01% and minimum for Maharashtra (3.87%. In north India, smear positive cases peak in second quarter (April–June and reach a trough in fourth quarter (October–December, however low seasonal variation is observed in southern region of the country. The significant correlations as 0.64 (p-value < 0.001, 0.54 (p-value < 0.01 and 0.42 (p-value < 0.05 are observed between minimum temperature and seasonality of TB at lag-1 in north, central and northeast India respectively. However, in south India, this correlation is not significant.

Retrospective analysis of trends and production factors associated with sow mortality on swine-breeding farms in USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Koketsu, Y

2000-09-01

Of the 825 pig farms in USA that mailed in their electronic file containing production records, 604 farms were used to observe breeding-female mortality risk and related factors (herd size, lactation length, parity and season). Multiple regression was used to determine factors associated with annual mortality risk. Analyses of variance were used for comparisons of mortality risks among parity and season groups. Average annual mortality risks during the 1997 period was 5.68%. Average breeding-female inventories and average lactation length on USA farms were 733 and 18.3 days, respectively. Higher annual breeding-female mortality risk was associated with larger herd size, greater parity at farrowing and shorter lactation length (P500 females, mortality risk increases by 0.44%. Older parity was associated with higher mortality risks. Summer season was also associated with higher mortality risk. Using five-years' records on 270 farms, annual mortality risk in 1997 was higher than those of 1993 and 1994, while average breeding-female inventory increased and lactation length decreased. It is recommended that producers, especially in large herds, pay more attention to breeding females.

Seasonality in cholera dynamics: A rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns in endemic areas

Science.gov (United States)

Baracchini, Theo; King, Aaron A.; Bouma, Menno J.; Rodó, Xavier; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Pascual, Mercedes

2017-10-01

Seasonal patterns in cholera dynamics exhibit pronounced variability across geographical regions, showing single or multiple peaks at different times of the year. Although multiple hypotheses related to local climate variables have been proposed, an understanding of this seasonal variation remains incomplete. The historical Bengal region, which encompasses the full range of cholera's seasonality observed worldwide, provides a unique opportunity to gain insights on underlying environmental drivers. Here, we propose a mechanistic, rainfall-temperature driven, stochastic epidemiological model which explicitly accounts for the fluctuations of the aquatic reservoir, and analyze with this model the historical dataset of cholera mortality in the Bengal region. Parameters are inferred with a recently developed sequential Monte Carlo method for likelihood maximization in partially observed Markov processes. Results indicate that the hydrological regime is a major driver of the seasonal dynamics of cholera. Rainfall tends to buffer the propagation of the disease in wet regions due to the longer residence times of water in the environment and an associated dilution effect, whereas it enhances cholera resurgence in dry regions. Moreover, the dynamics of the environmental water reservoir determine whether the seasonality is unimodal or bimodal, as well as its phase relative to the monsoon. Thus, the full range of seasonal patterns can be explained based solely on the local variation of rainfall and temperature. Given the close connection between cholera seasonality and environmental conditions, a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms would allow the better management and planning of public health policies with respect to climate variability and climate change.

Seasonal evolution of faecal egg output by gastrointestinal worms in goats on communal farms in eastern Namibia

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F.F. Kumba

2003-11-01

Full Text Available As a more detailed continuation of a previous study, faecal samples for worm egg counts were collected per rectum from ten marked adult animals in selected flocks of goats, in each of six villages evenly spread out in the communal farming district of Okakarara in eastern Namibia. The study was conducted on a monthly basis from August 1999 to July 2000. Average faecal worm egg counts (FECs were highest during the warm-wet season, much lower during the cold-dry months and moderate during the hot-dry season. Least square means of FECs were 2 140, 430 and 653 per gram of faeces for the three seasons, respectively. Seasonal variation in egg counts was significant (P < 0.0001. Gastrointestinal strongyles, and to a lesser extent Strongyloides species, were the predominant parasite groups identified in goats. Kidding rates peaked in the cold-dry season and mortality rates in the hot-dry season. Results of this study suggest that gastrointestinal parasitism may be a problem that accentuates the effect of poor nutrition on small ruminants during the season of food shortages in the east of Namibia and that the use of FECs per se to assess the severity of gastrointestinal parasitic infection in goats followed by chemoprophylactic strategic and / or tactical treatment, may not be the best approach to addressing the worm problem under resource-poor conditions. The use of the FAMACHA(c system that identifies severely affected animals for treatment is technically a better option for communal farmers.

Seasonal Influenza: An Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Christina; Freedman, Marian

2009-01-01

Seasonal influenza is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. It also has major social and economic consequences in the form of high rates of absenteeism from school and work as well as significant treatment and hospitalization costs. In fact, annual influenza epidemics and the resulting deaths and lost days of productivity…

The Gambia and Bangladesh: the seasons and diarrhoea.

Science.gov (United States)

Rowland, M G

1986-09-01

Climactic factors in the Gambia and Bangladesh have an important impact on the incidence of diarrheal disease. Both countries share some common characteristics in climate, including a cool dry winter of 3 months followed by a hot dry spring and hot wet summers of 5-7 months in length. The main difference is in the amount of rainfall. The Gambia may have 20-30 inches of rain each year; Bangladesh usually has up to 4-5 times this amount. In the Gambia, drought is a recurring problem; floods is the problem in Bangladesh. A study in the Gambia found a close link between the time of the annual peak in diarrhea in young children and the summer rains. A 2nd peak of diarrhea in the winter also was significant and was shown to coincide with a short period of intense transmission of rotavirus. Of the enteric infections of childhood, the enterotoxigenic "Escherichia coli" (ETEC), that is those producing heat-stable toxin (ST) were found to be the most important etiological agents of diarrhea in both countries, with a peak during the rains. In rural Gambia, water is obtained almost exclusively from surface wells, 15-20 meters deep. It was found that, although this water was fecally contaminated throughout the year, levels of contamination increased by up to 100 times with 1-2 days of the start of the rains because excreta is washed into the wells. It also was clear that contaminated water and domestic environment contribute to contamination of children's food. The high level of contamination of food during the summer coincided with the time of high diarrhea prevalence. In Bangladesh it was shown that the incidence of ETEC diarrhea in infants was positively correlated with the frequency of consumption of weaning foods contaminated with fecal coliforms. The seasonal peak of ETEC diarrhea coincided with the time when food was most contaminated due to higher bacterial growth caused by high temperatures. Cholera is endemic in many areas of Bangladesh but not in the Gambia. Though

Mortality following Stroke, the Weekend Effect and Related Factors: Record Linkage Study.

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Stephen E Roberts

Full Text Available Increased mortality following hospitalisation for stroke has been reported from many but not all studies that have investigated a 'weekend effect' for stroke. However, it is not known whether the weekend effect is affected by factors including hospital size, season and patient distance from hospital.To assess changes over time in mortality following hospitalisation for stroke and how any increased mortality for admissions on weekends is related to factors including the size of the hospital, seasonal factors and distance from hospital.A population study using person linked inpatient, mortality and primary care data for stroke from 2004 to 2012. The outcome measures were, firstly, mortality at seven days and secondly, mortality at 30 days and one year.Overall mortality for 37 888 people hospitalised following stroke was 11.6% at seven days, 21.4% at 30 days and 37.7% at one year. Mortality at seven and 30 days fell significantly by 1.7% and 3.1% per annum respectively from 2004 to 2012. When compared with week days, mortality at seven days was increased significantly by 19% for admissions on weekends, although the admission rate was 21% lower on weekends. Although not significant, there were indications of increased mortality at seven days for weekend admissions during winter months (31%, in community (81% rather than large hospitals (8% and for patients resident furthest from hospital (32% for distances of >20 kilometres. The weekend effect was significantly increased (by 39% for strokes of 'unspecified' subtype.Mortality following stroke has fallen over time. Mortality was increased for admissions at weekends, when compared with normal week days, but may be influenced by a higher stroke severity threshold for admission on weekends. Other than for unspecified strokes, we found no significant variation in the weekend effect for hospital size, season and distance from hospital.

Propagation of planktonic copepods: production and mortality of eggs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kiørboe, Thomas; Møhlenberg, Flemming; Tiselius, Peter

1988-01-01

Data on fecundity and egg mortality of neritic copepods were collected in various seasons, areas and under various hydrographical conditions. On a seasonal basis variations in fecundity (F) were related to temperature rather than to the abundance of phytoplankton (P). However, a strong correlation...... between F and P was evident when water column stability varied horisontally or temporally (i.e. at a tidal front or subsequent to a storm). Estimated specific egg-mortalities were variable and occasionally very severe, up to 9.1 d−1, implying that down to 10−4% of the eggs survive to hatching...

The association of meteorological factors and mortality in rural Bangladesh, 1983–2009

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Peter Kim Streatfield

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Introduction: While the association of weather and mortality has been well documented for moderate climate zones, little is known about sub-tropical zones, particularly Bangladesh. This study aims to assess the short-term relationship of temperature and rainfall on daily mortality after controlling for seasonality and time-trends. The study used data from Matlab, Bangladesh, where a rigorous health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS has been operational since 1966. Material and methods: Matlab HDSS data on mortality and population for the period 1983–2009 were used. Weather data for the same period were obtained from a nearby government weather station. Time series Poisson regression with cubic spline functions was applied allowing for lagged effects of weather and extreme weather events on mortality, and controlling for time trends and seasonal patterns. Analysis was carried out using R statistical software. Results: Both temperature and rainfall showed strong seasonal patterns, explaining a significant part of mortality in all age groups. After adjusting for seasonality and trend, mortality and temperature show a U-shaped pattern; below a temperature of around 29°C, a decrease in temperature resulted in an increase in mortality, whereas above 29°C, increased temperature resulted in increased mortality. The strongest negative mortality temperature association was observed in the elderly (5.4% increase with every 1°C decrease in temperature at temperatures below 23°C, and the opposite trend was observed in the age groups 1–4 and 5–19 years old. At aggregate level, the rainfall–mortality association is statistically weak. However in the age group 5–19, a 0.6% increase in mortality per 1 mm additional rainfall was found, at rainfall levels over 100 mm per day. Multivariate analysis showed high mortality risks for women aged 20–59 years of age during cyclone episodes. Discussion: Weather and extreme weather were associated

Time-series analysis of air pollution and cause-specific mortality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zmirou, D; Schwartz, J; Saez, M; Zanobetti, A; Wojtyniak, B; Touloumi, G; Spix, C; de Leon, AP; Le Moullec, Y; Bacharova, L; Schouten, J; Ponka, A; Katsouyanni, K

Ten large European cities provided data on daily air pollution as well as mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular mortality. We used Poisson autoregressive models that controlled for trend, season, influenza epidemics, and meteorologic influences to assess the short-term effects of air

Seasonal Variability in Vadose zone biodegradation at a crude oil pipeline rupture site

Science.gov (United States)

Sihota, Natasha J.; Trost, Jared J.; Bekins, Barbara; Berg, Andrew M.; Delin, Geoffrey N.; Mason, Brent E.; Warren, Ean; Mayer, K. Ulrich

2016-01-01

Understanding seasonal changes in natural attenuation processes is critical for evaluating source-zone longevity and informing management decisions. The seasonal variations of natural attenuation were investigated through measurements of surficial CO2 effluxes, shallow soil CO2 radiocarbon contents, subsurface gas concentrations, soil temperature, and volumetric water contents during a 2-yr period. Surficial CO2 effluxes varied seasonally, with peak values of total soil respiration (TSR) occurring in the late spring and summer. Efflux and radiocarbon data indicated that the fractional contributions of natural soil respiration (NSR) and contaminant soil respiration (CSR) to TSR varied seasonally. The NSR dominated in the spring and summer, and CSR dominated in the fall and winter. Subsurface gas concentrations also varied seasonally, with peak values of CO2 and CH4 occurring in the fall and winter. Vadose zone temperatures and subsurface CO2 concentrations revealed a correlation between contaminant respiration and temperature. A time lag of 5 to 7 mo between peak subsurface CO2 concentrations and peak surface efflux is consistent with travel-time estimates for subsurface gas migration. Periods of frozen soils coincided with depressed surface CO2 effluxes and elevated CO2 concentrations, pointing to the temporary presence of an ice layer that inhibited gas transport. Quantitative reactive transport simulations demonstrated aspects of the conceptual model developed from field measurements. Overall, results indicated that source-zone natural attenuation (SZNA) rates and gas transport processes varied seasonally and that the average annual SZNA rate estimated from periodic surface efflux measurements is 60% lower than rates determined from measurements during the summer.

Excess winter mortality and cold temperatures in a subtropical city, Guangzhou, China.

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Chun-Quan Ou

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A significant increase in mortality was observed during cold winters in many temperate regions. However, there is a lack of evidence from tropical and subtropical regions, and the influence of ambient temperatures on seasonal variation of mortality was not well documented. METHODS: This study included 213,737 registered deaths from January 2003 to December 2011 in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in Southern China. Excess winter mortality was calculated by the excess percentage of monthly mortality in winters over that of non-winter months. A generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was applied to analyze the association between monthly mean temperature and mortality, after controlling for other meteorological measures and air pollution. RESULTS: The mortality rate in the winter was 26% higher than the average rate in other seasons. On average, there were 1,848 excess winter deaths annually, with around half (52% from cardiovascular diseases and a quarter (24% from respiratory diseases. Excess winter mortality was higher in the elderly, females and those with low education level than the young, males and those with high education level, respectively. A much larger winter increase was observed in out-of-hospital mortality compared to in-hospital mortality (45% vs. 17%. We found a significant negative correlation of annual excess winter mortality with average winter temperature (rs=-0.738, P=0.037, but not with air pollution levels. A 1 °C decrease in monthly mean temperature was associated with an increase of 1.38% (95% CI:0.34%-2.40% and 0.88% (95% CI:0.11%-1.64% in monthly mortality at lags of 0-1 month, respectively. CONCLUSION: Similar to temperate regions, a subtropical city Guangzhou showed a clear seasonal pattern in mortality, with a sharper spike in winter. Our results highlight the role of cold temperature on the winter mortality even in warm climate. Precautionary measures should be strengthened to mitigate

Relationship of infant and fetal mortality to operations at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation, Washington State, 1946-1982

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cate, S.; Hansom, J.

1986-01-01

The relationship of infant and fetal mortality to numbers of nuclear reactors at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation was investigated. Mortality rates were obtained using 36 years of United States vital statistics data. Three different exposure groups were selected based on meteorologic studies of the Hanford area: group 1, counties downwind of Hanford all year; group 2, counties seasonally downwind; and group 3, counties not downwind. Washington state was used as an additional comparison group. Four periods of operation based on fluctuations in numbers of reactors were characterized. Log-linear analysis revealed that the three groups and Washington state had similar trends in infant mortality rates over the four time periods. On the other hand, the trend in fetal mortality rates for group 1 did differ significantly from trends for the two other groups and Washington state. The trends of fetal mortality rates for group 2, group 3, and Washington state were not statistically different. Fetal mortality rates in group 1, however, failed to decline from period 1 (1946-1954) to period 2 (1955-1964) as expected by the trends for the two groups and Washington state. During period 2, the greatest number of reactors were operating. County-specific analysis showed that, of the counties in group 1, the trend in fetal mortality for Benton County, where Hanford is located, was significantly different from that for Washington state. A possible link between Hanford and an excess in fetal deaths is suggested by the deviation in trend of group 1, which appears localized to Benton County and the period of peak activity at Hanford

Mortality risk factors for calves entering a multi-location white veal farm in Ontario, Canada.

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Winder, Charlotte B; Kelton, David F; Duffield, Todd F

2016-12-01

Mortality in preweaned dairy-breed calves, whether they are replacement dairy heifers, veal animals, or dairy beef animals, represents both a welfare issue and a source of economic loss for the industries involved. Studies describing morbidity and mortality in veal calves have illustrated different management practices and requirements in terms of housing and nutrition around the world. Studies examining the rearing of replacement dairy heifers have shown that rates of morbidity and mortality can vary dramatically between farms, perhaps reflecting differences in management strategies. It has been over 2 decades since morbidity and mortality in veal calves in Ontario were described. The objective of this retrospective population cohort study was to describe mortality and determine whether on-arrival information could be used to predict mortality risk. Predictors could be used to both better classify and group calves on arrival and provide feedback to suppliers about the characteristics of the highest- and lowest-risk calves. We collected data from 10,910 calves entering 7 barns of a single white veal farm, all in Ontario, from January 1 to December 31, 2014. Calves were followed until death or marketing (typically 140 to 150 d). We developed logistic regression models to determine the effects of weight on arrival, season of arrival, supplier, sex, barn, and purchase price on the risk of total mortality, early mortality (0-21d after arrival), and late mortality (>21d after arrival). We identified significant associations between season, barn, supplier, weight, and total mortality risk, with lighter-weight calves arriving in winter being at increased risk. Early mortality was significantly associated with weight, season, barn, and supplier, and tended to be associated with standardized price; lighter-weight calves arriving in winter at lower prices were at increased risk. Late mortality was significantly associated with season of arrival, barn, and supplier. On

Intraseasonal variation in survival and probable causes of mortality in greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus

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Blomberg, Erik J.; Gibson, Daniel; Sedinger, James S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.

2013-01-01

The mortality process is a key component of avian population dynamics, and understanding factors that affect mortality is central to grouse conservation. Populations of greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus have declined across their range in western North America. We studied cause-specific mortality of radio-marked sage-grouse in Eureka County, Nevada, USA, during two seasons, nesting (2008-2012) and fall (2008-2010), when survival was known to be lower compared to other times of the year. We used known-fate and cumulative incidence function models to estimate weekly survival rates and cumulative risk of cause-specific mortalities, respectively. These methods allowed us to account for temporal variation in sample size and staggered entry of marked individuals into the sample to obtain robust estimates of survival and cause-specific mortality. We monitored 376 individual sage-grouse during the course of our study, and investigated 87 deaths. Predation was the major source of mortality, and accounted for 90% of all mortalities during our study. During the nesting season (1 April - 31 May), the cumulative risk of predation by raptors (0.10; 95% CI: 0.05-0.16) and mammals (0.08; 95% CI: 0.03-013) was relatively equal. In the fall (15 August - 31 October), the cumulative risk of mammal predation was greater (M(mam) = 0.12; 95% CI: 0.04-0.19) than either predation by raptors (M(rap) = 0.05; 95% CI: 0.00-0.10) or hunting harvest (M(hunt) = 0.02; 95% CI: 0.0-0.06). During both seasons, we observed relatively few additional sources of mortality (e.g. collision) and observed no evidence of disease-related mortality (e.g. West Nile Virus). In general, we found little evidence for intraseasonal temporal variation in survival, suggesting that the nesting and fall seasons represent biologically meaningful time intervals with respect to sage-grouse survival.

Mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in San Luis Potosí, Mexico

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Comas‐García, Andreu; García‐Sepúlveda, Christian A.; Méndez‐de Lira, José J.; Aranda‐Romo, Saray; Hernández‐Salinas, Alba E.; Noyola, Daniel E.

2010-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Comas‐García et al. (2011) Mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in San Luis Potosí, Mexico. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(2), 76–82. Background  Acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Starting in 2009, pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus has become one of the leading respiratory pathogens worldwide. However, the overall impact of this virus as a cause of mortality has not been clearly defined. Objectives  To determine the impact of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 on mortality in a Mexican population. Methods  We assessed the impact of pandemic influenza virus on mortality during the first and second outbreaks in San Luis Potosí, Mexico, and compared it to mortality associated with seasonal influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) during the previous winter seasons. Results  We estimated that, on average, 8·1% of all deaths that occurred during the 2003–2009 seasons were attributable to influenza and RSV. During the first pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 outbreak, there was an increase in mortality in persons 5–59 years of age, but not during the second outbreak (Fall of 2009). Overall, pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 outbreaks had similar effects on mortality to those associated with seasonal influenza virus epidemics. Conclusions  The impact of influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus on mortality during the first year of the pandemic was similar to that observed for seasonal influenza. The establishment of real‐time surveillance systems capable of integrating virological, morbidity, and mortality data may result in the timely identification of outbreaks so as to allow for the institution of appropriate control measures to reduce the impact of emerging pathogens on the population. PMID:21306570

Population level evidence for seasonality of the human microbiome.

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Korownyk, Christina; Liu, Fangwei; Garrison, Scott

2018-04-01

The objective of this study is to determine whether human body odors undergo seasonal modulation. We utilized google trends search volume from the United States of America from January 1, 2010 to June 24, 2017 for a number of predetermined body odors. Regression modeling of time series data was completed. Our primary outcome was to determine the proportion of the variability in Internet searches for each unpleasant odor (about the mean) that is explained by a seasonal model. We determined that the seasonal (sinusoidal) model provided a significantly better fit than the null model (best straight line fit) for all searches relating to human body odors (P odor, 60% of the variability in search volume for foot odor, and 58% of the variability in search volume for bad breath. Flatulence and bad breath tended to peak in January, foot odor in February, and Axillary odor in July. We conclude that searching by the general public for information on unpleasant body odors undergoes substantial seasonal variation, with the timing of peaks and troughs varying with the body part involved. The symptom burden of such smells may have a similar seasonal variation, as might the composition of the commensal bacterial microflora that play a role in creating them.

Seasonal Differences in the Day-of-the-Week Pattern of Suicide in Queensland, Australia

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Law, Chi-kin; De Leo, Diego

2013-01-01

Various temporal patterns of suicide events, according to time of day, day of week, month and season, have been identified. However, whether different dimensions of time interact has not been investigated. Using suicide data from Queensland, Australia, this study aims to verify if there is an interaction effect between seasonal and day-of-the-week distribution. Computerized suicide data from the Queensland Suicide Register for those aged 15+ years were analyzed according to date of death, age, sex and geographic location for the period 1996–2007. To examine seasonal differences in day-of-the-week pattern of suicide, Poisson regressions were used. A total of 6,555 suicides were recorded over the whole study period. Regardless of the season, male residents of Brisbane had a significantly marked day-of-the-week pattern of suicide, with higher rates between Mondays and Thursdays. When seasonal differences were considered, male residents in Brisbane showed a Monday peak in summer and a wave-shape pattern with a peak on Thursday and a nadir on Saturdays in winter. Whilst males have distinctive peaks in terms of days of the week for summer and winter, females do not show similar patterns. PMID:23880724

Aspects of Seasonal and Long-term Trends in Fisheries and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... Schilbe moebiusii and Hydrocynus tanzaniae. A distinct seasonal pattern in fish catches was found, where more fish were landed in the dry months (June, July, August and September) and less during peak of the rainy season (March to May). Reduction of fishing effort, crop farming and inaccessibility of fish landing sites ...

Looking for age-related growth decline in natural forests: unexpected biomass patterns from tree rings and simulated mortality

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Foster, Jane R.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.

2014-01-01

Forest biomass growth is almost universally assumed to peak early in stand development, near canopy closure, after which it will plateau or decline. The chronosequence and plot remeasurement approaches used to establish the decline pattern suffer from limitations and coarse temporal detail. We combined annual tree ring measurements and mortality models to address two questions: first, how do assumptions about tree growth and mortality influence reconstructions of biomass growth? Second, under what circumstances does biomass production follow the model that peaks early, then declines? We integrated three stochastic mortality models with a census tree-ring data set from eight temperate forest types to reconstruct stand-level biomass increments (in Minnesota, USA). We compared growth patterns among mortality models, forest types and stands. Timing of peak biomass growth varied significantly among mortality models, peaking 20–30 years earlier when mortality was random with respect to tree growth and size, than when mortality favored slow-growing individuals. Random or u-shaped mortality (highest in small or large trees) produced peak growth 25–30 % higher than the surviving tree sample alone. Growth trends for even-aged, monospecific Pinus banksiana or Acer saccharum forests were similar to the early peak and decline expectation. However, we observed continually increasing biomass growth in older, low-productivity forests of Quercus rubra, Fraxinus nigra, and Thuja occidentalis. Tree-ring reconstructions estimated annual changes in live biomass growth and identified more diverse development patterns than previous methods. These detailed, long-term patterns of biomass development are crucial for detecting recent growth responses to global change and modeling future forest dynamics.

Warming and Acidification Induced Mass Mortality of a Coastal Keystone predator

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Melzner, F.; Findeisen, U.

2016-02-01

The Baltic Sea is characterized by low salinity and pronounced fluctuations in pCO2. On-line monitoring of pCO2 in 2014 in Kiel Fjord demonstrated occurrence of peak values of >2,000 µatm in summer and autumn and average values >750 µatm. We assessed the impacts of elevated temperature (ambient temperature, ambient +3°C) and pCO2 (500, 1,500, 2,400 µatm) on the keystone species Asterias rubens in a fully crossed long - term experiment (N=5 replicate tanks each, 1 year duration). During spring and early summer (February - June), high temperature animals ingested significantly more food and spawned significantly earlier (April 30th) than ambient acclimated animals (May 23rd). Elevated pCO2 led to comparatively minor reductions in food intake and scope for growth during that period. During summer (June - August), elevated temperature >25°C caused negative energy budgets and >95% mortality in the warm acclimated groups, while mortality was low in the ambient temperature groups. Our results indicate that A. rubens may benefit from increased temperature during colder months, yet dramatically suffer during summer heat waves in warm years. Meaningful experimental approaches to assess species vulnerability to climate change need to encompass all seasons and realistic abiotic stressor levels.

Seasonal variation in hemodialysis initiation: A single-center retrospective analysis.

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Yujiro Maeoka

Full Text Available The number of new dialysis patients has been increasing worldwide, particularly among elderly individuals. However, information on seasonal variation in hemodialysis initiation in recent decades is lacking, and the seasonal distribution of patients' conditions immediately prior to starting dialysis remains unclear. Having this information could help in developing a modifiable approach to improving pre-dialysis care. We retrospectively investigated the records of 297 patients who initiated hemodialysis at Hiroshima Prefectural Hospital from January 1st, 2009 to December 31st, 2013. Seasonal differences were assessed by χ2 or Kruskal-Wallis tests. Multiple comparison analysis was performed with the Steel test. The overall number of patients starting dialysis was greatest in winter (n = 85, 28.6%, followed by spring (n = 74, 24.9%, summer (n = 70, 23.6%, and autumn (n = 68, 22.9%, though the differences were not significant. However, there was a significant winter peak in dialysis initiation among patients aged ≥65 years, but not in those aged <65 years. Fluid overload assessed by clinicians was the most common uremic symptom among all patients, but a winter peak was only detected in patients aged ≥65 years. The body weight gain ratio showed a similar trend to fluid overload assessed by clinicians. Pulmonary edema was most pronounced in winter among patients aged ≥65 years compared with other seasons. The incidences of infection were modestly increased in summer and winter, but not statistically significant. Cardiac complications were similar in all seasons. This study demonstrated the existence of seasonal variation in dialysis initiation, with a winter peak among patients aged ≥65 years. The winter increment in dialysis initiation was mainly attributable to increased fluid overload. These findings suggest that elderly individuals should be monitored particularly closely during the winter.

Winter excess in hospital admissions, in-patient mortality and length of acute hospital stay in stroke: a hospital database study over six seasonal years in Norfolk, UK.

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Myint, Phyo K; Vowler, Sarah L; Woodhouse, Peter R; Redmayne, Oliver; Fulcher, Robert A

2007-01-01

Several studies have examined the incidence and mortality of stroke in relation to season. However, the evidence is conflicting partly due to variation in the populations (community vs. hospital-based), and in climatic conditions between studies. Moreover, they may not have been able to take into account the age, sex and stroke type of the study population. We hypothesized that the age, sex and type of stroke are major determinants of the presence or absence of winter excess in morbidity and mortality associated with stroke. We analyzed a hospital-based stroke register from Norfolk, UK to examine our prior hypothesis. Using Curwen's method, we performed stratified sex-specific analyses by (1) seasonal year and (2) quartiles of patients' age and stroke subtype and calculated the winter excess for the number of admissions, in-patient deaths and length of acute hospital stay. There were 5,481 patients (men=45%). Their ages ranged from 17 to 105 years (median=78 years). There appeared to be winter excess in hospital admissions, deaths and length of acute hospital stay overall accounting for 3/100,000 extra admissions (winter excess index of 3.4% in men and 7.6% in women) and 1/100,000 deaths (winter excess index of 4.7 and 8.6% in women) due to stroke in winter compared to non-winter periods. Older patients with non-haemorrhagic stroke mainly contribute to this excess. If our findings are replicated throughout England and Wales, it is estimated that there are 1,700 excess admissions, 600 excess in-patient deaths and 24,500 extra acute hospital bed days each winter, related to stroke within the current population of approximately 60 million. Further research should be focused on the determinants of winter excess in morbidity and mortality associated with stroke. This may subsequently reduce the morbidity and mortality by providing effective preventive strategies in future. (c) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Seasonal patterns in growth, blood consumption, and effects on hosts by parasitic-phase sea lampreys in the Great Lakes: an individual-based model approach

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Madenjian, Charles P.; Cochran, Philip A.; Bergstedt, Roger A.

2003-01-01

An individual-based model (IBM) was developed for sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes. The IBM was then calibrated to observed growth, by season, for sea lampreys in northern Lake Huron under two different water temperature regimes: a regime experienced by Seneca-strain lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and a regime experienced by Marquettestrain lake trout. Modeling results indicated that seasonal blood consumption under the Seneca regime was very similar to that under the Marquette regime. Simulated mortality of lake trout directly due to blood removal by sea lampreys occurred at nearly twice the rate during August and September under the Marquette regime than under the Seneca regime. However, cumulative sea lamprey-induced mortality on lake trout over the entire duration of the sea lamprey's parasitic phase was only 7% higher for the Marquette regime compared with the Seneca regime. Thus, these modeling results indicated that the strain composition of the host (lake trout) population was not important in determining total number of lake trout deaths or total blood consumption attributable to the sea lamprey population, given the sea lamprey growth pattern. Regardless of water temperature regime, both blood consumption rate by sea lampreys and rate of sea lamprey-induced mortality on lake trout peaked in late October. Elevated blood consumption in late October appeared to be unrelated to changes in water temperature. The IBM approach should prove useful in optimizing control of sea lampreys in the Laurentian Great Lakes.

Depression increasingly predicts mortality in the course of congestive heart failure.

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Jünger, Jana; Schellberg, Dieter; Müller-Tasch, Thomas; Raupp, Georg; Zugck, Christian; Haunstetter, Armin; Zipfel, Stephan; Herzog, Wolfgang; Haass, Markus

2005-03-02

Congestive heart failure (CHF) is frequently associated with depression. However, the impact of depression on prognosis has not yet been sufficiently established. To prospectively investigate the influence of depression on mortality in patients with CHF. In 209 CHF patients depression was assessed by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D). Compared to survivors (n=164), non-survivors (n=45) were characterized by a higher New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class (2.8+/-0.7 vs. 2.5+/-0.6), and a lower left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (18+/-8 vs. 23+/-10%) and peakVO(2) (13.1+/-4.5 vs. 15.4+/-5.2 ml/kg/min) at baseline. Furthermore, non-survivors had a higher depression score (7.5+/-4.0 vs. 6.1+/-4.3) (all P<0.05). After a mean follow-up of 24.8 months the depression score was identified as a significant indicator of mortality (P<0.01). In multivariate analysis the depression score predicted mortality independent from NYHA functional class, LVEF and peakVO(2). Combination of depression score, LVEF and peakVO(2) allowed for a better risk stratification than combination of LVEF and peakVO(2) alone. The risk ratio for mortality in patients with an elevated depression score (i.e. above the median) rose over time to 8.2 after 30 months (CI 2.62-25.84). The depression score predicts mortality independent of somatic parameters in CHF patients not treated for depression. Its prognostic power increases over time and should, thus, be accounted for in risk stratification and therapy.

Risk assessment for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality due to air pollution and synoptic meteorology in 10 Canadian cities.

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Vanos, Jennifer K; Hebbern, Christopher; Cakmak, Sabit

2014-02-01

Synoptic weather and ambient air quality synergistically influence human health. We report the relative risk of mortality from all non-accidental, respiratory-, and cardiovascular-related causes, associated with exposure to four air pollutants, by weather type and season, in 10 major Canadian cities for 1981 through 1999. We conducted this multi-city time-series study using Poisson generalized linear models stratified by season and each of six distinctive synoptic weather types. Statistically significant relationships of mortality due to short-term exposure to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, and ozone were found, with significant modifications of risk by weather type, season, and mortality cause. In total, 61% of the respiratory-related mortality relative risk estimates were significantly higher than for cardiovascular-related mortality. The combined effect of weather and air pollution is greatest when tropical-type weather is present in the spring or summer. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Peak Exercise Oxygen Uptake Predicts Recurrent Admissions in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction.

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Palau, Patricia; Domínguez, Eloy; Núñez, Eduardo; Ramón, José María; López, Laura; Melero, Joana; Sanchis, Juan; Bellver, Alejandro; Santas, Enrique; Bayes-Genis, Antoni; Chorro, Francisco J; Núñez, Julio

2018-04-01

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is a highly prevalent syndrome with an elevated risk of morbidity and mortality. To date, there is scarce evidence on the role of peak exercise oxygen uptake (peak VO 2 ) for predicting the morbidity burden in HFpEF. We sought to evaluate the association between peak VO 2 and the risk of recurrent hospitalizations in patients with HFpEF. A total of 74 stable symptomatic patients with HFpEF underwent a cardiopulmonary exercise test between June 2012 and May 2016. A negative binomial regression method was used to determine the association between the percentage of predicted peak VO 2 (pp-peak VO 2 ) and recurrent hospitalizations. Risk estimates are reported as incidence rate ratios. The mean age was 72.5 ± 9.1 years, 53% were women, and all patients were in New York Heart Association functional class II to III. Mean peak VO 2 and median pp-peak VO 2 were 10 ± 2.8mL/min/kg and 60% (range, 47-67), respectively. During a median follow-up of 276 days [interquartile range, 153-1231], 84 all-cause hospitalizations in 31 patients (41.9%) were registered. A total of 15 (20.3%) deaths were also recorded. On multivariate analysis, accounting for mortality as a terminal event, pp-peak VO 2 was independently and linearly associated with the risk of recurrent admission. Thus, and modeled as continuous, a 10% decrease of pp-peak VO 2 increased the risk of recurrent hospitalizations by 32% (IRR, 1.32; 95%CI, 1.03-1.68; P = .028). In symptomatic elderly patients with HFpEF, pp-peak VO 2 predicts all-cause recurrent admission. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Enhanced vegetation growth peak and its key mechanisms

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Huang, K.; Xia, J.; Wang, Y.; Ahlström, A.; Schwalm, C.; Huntzinger, D. N.; Chen, J.; Cook, R. B.; Fang, Y.; Fisher, J. B.; Jacobson, A. R.; Michalak, A.; Schaefer, K. M.; Wei, Y.; Yan, L.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

It remains unclear that whether and how the vegetation growth peak has been shifted globally during the past three decades. Here we used two global datasets of gross primary productivity (GPP) and a satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to characterize recent changes in seasonal peak vegetation growth. The attribution of changes in peak growth to their driving factors was examined with several datasets. We demonstrated that the growth peak of global vegetation has been linearly increasing during the past three decades. About 65% of this trend is evenly explained by the expanding croplands (21%), rising atmospheric [CO2] (22%), and intensifying nitrogen deposition (22%). The contribution of expanding croplands to the peak growth trend was substantiated by measurements from eddy-flux towers, sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and a global database of plant traits, all of which demonstrated that croplands have a higher photosynthetic capacity than other vegetation types. The contribution of rising atmospheric [CO2] and nitrogen deposition are consistent with the positive response of leaf growth to elevated [CO2] (25%) and nitrogen addition (8%) from 346 manipulated experiments. The positive effect of rising atmospheric [CO2] was also well captured by 15 terrestrial biosphere models. However, most models underestimated the contributions of land-cover change and nitrogen deposition, but overestimated the positive effect of climate change.

Human mortality seasonality in Castile-León, Spain, between 1980 and 1998: the influence of temperature, pressure and humidity

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Fernández-Raga, María; Tomás, Clemente; Fraile, Roberto

2010-07-01

This study was carried out in the region of Castile and Leon, Spain, from 1980 to 1998 and analyzes the relationship between the number of monthly deaths caused by cardiovascular, respiratory and digestive diseases and three meteorological variables: temperature, pressure and humidity. One of the innovations in this study is the application of principal component analysis in a way that differs from its usual application: one single series representing the whole region was constructed for each meteorological variable from the series of eight weather stations. Annual and seasonal mortality trends were also studied. Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in Castile and Leon. The mortality related to cardiovascular, respiratory and digestive systems shows a statistically significant rising trend across the study period (an annual increase of 6, 16 and 4‰, respectively). The pressure at which mortality is lowest is approximately the same for all causes of death (about 915 hPa), but temperature values vary greatly (16.8-19.7°C for the mean, 10.9-18.1°C for the minimum, and 24.1-27.2°C for the maximum temperature). The most comfortable temperatures for patients with cardiovascular diseases (16.8°C) are apparently lower than those for patients with respiratory diseases (18.1°C), which are, in turn, lower than in the case of diseases of the digestive system (19.7°C). Finally, the optimal humidity for patients with respiratory diseases is the lowest (24%) among the diseases, and the highest (51%) corresponds to diseases of the digestive system, while the optimal relative humidity for the cardiovascular system is 45%.

The next mesothelioma wave: mortality trends and forecast to 2030 in Brazil.

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Algranti, Eduardo; Saito, Cézar Akiyoshi; Carneiro, Ana Paula Scalia; Moreira, Bruno; Mendonça, Elizabete Medina Coeli; Bussacos, Marco Antonio

2015-10-01

There are limited data on mesothelioma mortality in industrializing countries, where, at present, most of the asbestos consumption occurs. To analyze temporal trends and to calculate mortality rates from mesothelioma and cancer of the pleura in Brazil from 2000 to 2012 and to estimate future mortality rates. We retrieved records of deaths from mesothelioma (ICD-10C45) and cancer of the pleura (ICD-10C38.4) from 2000 to 2012 in adults aged 30 years and over. Crude and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated. Rate ratios of mean crude mortality for selected municipalities were compared to the Brazilian rate. A regression was carried out of the annual number of deaths against asbestos consumption using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM). The best model was chosen to estimate the future burden and peak period of deaths. There were 929C45 and 1379 C38.4 deaths. The ratio of men to women for C45 was 1.4. A positive trend in C45 numbers was observed in Brazil (p=0.0012), particularly in São Paulo (p=0.0004) where ASMRs presented an increasing linear trend (p=0.0344). Selected municipalities harboring asbestos manipulation presented 3.7-11 fold rate ratios of C45 compared to Brazil. GAM presented best fits for latencies of 34 years or more. It is estimated that the peak incidence of C45 mortality will occur between 2021 and 2026. The observed ASMRs and the gender ratio close to 1 suggest underreporting. Even so, deaths are increasing and mesothelioma clusters were identified. Compared to industrialized countries Brazil displays a 15-20 year lag in estimated peak mesothelioma mortality which is consistent with the lag of asbestos peak consumption in the country. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Disease ecology of Hematodinium perezi in a high salinity estuary: investigating seasonal trends in environmental detection.

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Lycett, K A; Pitula, J S

2017-05-11

The blue crab Callinectes sapidus has seen a general decline in population levels. One factor influencing mortality is infections by Hematodinium perezi, a dinoflagellate parasite. A 2 yr study was conducted in 2014 and 2015 to monitor H. perezi DNA within the Maryland (USA) coastal bays, comparing seasonal cycles in the abundance of parasite DNA in environmental samples to parasite presence in host blue crabs. A late summer to early fall peak in H. perezi infections in blue crabs was observed, consistent with previous work. Infection intensities matched this trend, showing a slow progression of low intensity infections early in the year, with a peak in moderate and heavy infections occurring between July and September, for both years. It was hypothesized that the peak in water column occurrence would coincide with those months when infection intensities were highest in blue crabs. As the peaks in water column occurrence were in July 2014 and August-September 2015, this is consistent with sporulation being the primary contributor to environmental detection in summer months. An additional peak in environmental detection occurred in both years during the early spring months, the cause of which is currently unknown but may be related to infections in overwintering crabs or alternate hosts. Several new crustacean hosts were identified within this estuary, including grass shrimp Palaemonetes spp. and the sand shrimp Crangon septemspinosa, as well as the mud crab Dyspanopeus sayi. Improved knowledge of this disease system will allow for better management of this important fishery.

Mortality of Kalliapseudes schubartii in unvegetated soft bottoms of the estuarine region of the Lagoa dos Patos

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Fonseca Duane Barros

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Studies were carried iut on seasonal mortality by taking samples of Kalliapseudes schubartii (Crustacea: Tanaidacea for a year in the estuarine region of the Lagoa dos Patos (southern Brazil. Results demonstrated no significant difference in seasonal mortality rates, which suggest that populations of K. schubartii was heavily preyed on year round and that an assumption of a significantly higher mortality in summer/autumn than in spring/winter might not be held in unvegetated soft bottoms of the estuarine regions of the Lagoa dos Patos.

Seasonal patterns of periphyton nitrogen fixation in calcareous wetlands

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Liao, X.; Inglett, P.

2011-12-01

Periphyton mats are an ecologically important component of the Everglades ecosystem and plays various vital ecological functions. However, nitrogen fixation of periphyton, has received little attention throughout much of the Everglades system. The objective of this study was to characterize the seasonal pattern of periphyton N2 fixation in the Hole-in-the-Donut (HID) of Florida Everglades, where farmed marl prairie wetlands have been restored through complete soil removal (CSR) to reduce nutrient levels. Two restored areas (i.e., cleared in 2000 and 2003) and a reference (natural and unfarmed) marl prairie wetland sites were selected in the HID. Seven times of sampling were performed across the wet and dry season during the 2010 and 2011. The annual fixed nitrogen was approximately 0.4gN m-2 yr-1 in the restored sites which was higher in the reference site (~0.2gN m-2 yr-1). All the three sites showed similar seasonal patterns of N2 fixation that is higher values were observed in the wet season; but the peak value was one month later in reference sits (i.e., September) comparing to the restored areas (i.e., July). The peak of periphyton AR rates in the 2000- and 2003-restored areas appeared in July (i.e., wet season) within the range of 20-79 nmols g-1dw h-1 and 31-53nmols g-1dw h-1, respectively. In contrast, the peak of reference site was observed in September with the range of 2-5 nmols g-1dw h-1. Stable N isotopic ratios (i.e., δ15N) also varied with time but didn't show consistent seasonal pattern as nitrogen fixation. N2 fixation positively correlated with periphyton total phosphorus (TP) and negatively correlated with total nitrogen and phosphorus molar ratios (TN:TP), indicating that N2 fixation would be a indicator of nutrient limitation. In general, δ15N was negatively correlated with nitrogenase activity but the correlation became weakened in the wet season, especially in the flooded July and September, which would be explained by other environmental

Extended duration of parturition season in North American elk (Cervus elaphus)

Science.gov (United States)

Barbara J. Keller; Amy D. Bleisch; Joshua J. Millspaugh; Chad P. Lehman; Jackie J. Kragel; Lonnie P. Hansen; Jason Sumners; Mark A. Rumble; Gary C. Brundige

2015-01-01

The timing of births in ungulates has significant implications for juvenile survival and population growth. For North American elk (Cervus elaphus), typical parturition season ranges from late May to early Jun., and juveniles born outside of this peak characteristically exhibit lowered survival. We observed abnormally long parturition seasons in free-ranging elk...

Representativeness and seasonality of major ion records derived from NEEM firn cores

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G. Gfeller

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The seasonal and annual representativeness of ionic aerosol proxies (among others, calcium, sodium, ammonium and nitrate in various firn cores in the vicinity of the NEEM drill site in northwest Greenland have been assessed. Seasonal representativeness is very high as one core explains more than 60% of the variability within the area. The inter-annual representativeness, however, can be substantially lower (depending on the species making replicate coring indispensable to derive the atmospheric variability of aerosol species. A single core at the NEEM site records only 30% of the inter-annual atmospheric variability in some species, while five replicate cores are already needed to cover approximately 70% of the inter-annual atmospheric variability in all species. The spatial representativeness is very high within 60 cm, rapidly decorrelates within 10 m but does not diminish further within 3 km. We attribute this to wind reworking of the snow pack leading to sastrugi formation. Due to the high resolution and seasonal representativeness of the records we can derive accurate seasonalities of the measured species for modern (AD 1990–2010 times as well as for pre-industrial (AD 1623–1750 times. Sodium and calcium show similar seasonality (peaking in February and March respectively for modern and pre-industrial times, whereas ammonium and nitrate are influenced by anthropogenic activities. Nitrate and ammonium both peak in May during modern times, whereas during pre-industrial times ammonium peaked during July–August and nitrate during June–July.

Seasonal Effects of Habitat on Sources and Rates of Snowshoe Hare Predation in Alaskan Boreal Forests.

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Dashiell Feierabend

Full Text Available Survival and predation of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus has been widely studied, yet there has been little quantification of the changes in vulnerability of hares to specific predators that may result from seasonal changes in vegetation and cover. We investigated survival and causes of mortalities of snowshoe hares during the late increase, peak, and decline of a population in interior Alaska. From June 2008 to May 2012, we radio-tagged 288 adult and older juvenile hares in early successional and black spruce (Picea mariana forests and, using known-fate methods in program MARK, evaluated 85 survival models that included variables for sex, age, and body condition of hares, as well as trapping site, month, season, year, snowfall, snow depth, and air temperature. We compared the models using Akaike's information criterion with correction for small sample size. Model results indicated that month, capture site, and body condition were the most important variables in explaining survival rates. Survival was highest in July, and more generally during summer, when alternative prey was available to predators of hares. Low survival rates coincided with molting periods, breeding activity in the spring, and the introduction of juveniles to the sample population in the fall. We identified predation as the cause of mortality in 86% of hare deaths. When the source of predation could be determined, hares were killed more often by goshawks (Accipiter gentilis than other predators in early successional forest (30%, and more often by lynx (Lynx canadensis than other predators in black spruce forest (31%. Great horned owls (Bubo virginianus and coyotes (Canis latrans represented smaller proportions of hare predation, and non-predatory causes were a minor source (3% of mortality. Because hares rely on vegetative cover for concealment from predators, we measured cover in predation sites and habitats that the hares occupied and concluded that habitat type had a

Forecasting monthly peak demand of electricity in India—A critique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rallapalli, Srinivasa Rao; Ghosh, Sajal

2012-01-01

The nature of electricity differs from that of other commodities since electricity is a non-storable good and there have been significant seasonal and diurnal variations of demand. Under such condition, precise forecasting of demand for electricity should be an integral part of the planning process as this enables the policy makers to provide directions on cost-effective investment and on scheduling the operation of the existing and new power plants so that the supply of electricity can be made adequate enough to meet the future demand and its variations. Official load forecasting in India done by Central Electricity Authority (CEA) is often criticized for being overestimated due to inferior techniques used for forecasting. This paper tries to evaluate monthly peak demand forecasting performance predicted by CEA using trend method and compare it with those predicted by Multiplicative Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (MSARIMA) model. It has been found that MSARIMA model outperforms CEA forecasts both in-sample static and out-of-sample dynamic forecast horizons in all five regional grids in India. For better load management and grid discipline, this study suggests employing sophisticated techniques like MSARIMA for peak load forecasting in India. - Highlights: ► This paper evaluates monthly peak demand forecasting performance by CEA. ► Compares CEA forecasts it with those predicted by MSARIMA model. ► MSARIMA model outperforms CEA forecasts in all five regional grids in India. ► Opportunity exists to improve the performance of CEA forecasts.

Seasonal prolactin secretion and its role in seasonal reproduction: a review.

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Curlewis, J D

1992-01-01

The majority of seasonally breeding mammals show a seasonal pattern of prolactin secretion with peak concentrations in spring or summer and a nadir in autumn or winter. Photoperiod influences prolactin secretion via its effects on the secretion of the pineal hormone melatonin. Preliminary evidence suggests that the effects of melatonin on both prolactin and gonadotrophin secretion are via a common target area, possibly within the anterior hypothalamus, and that differences in response to photoperiod may be due to differences in the processing and/or interpretation of the melatonin signal. In contrast to seasonal gonadotrophin secretion, the seasonal changes in prolactin are not due to changes in the sensitivity of a feedback loop and so must be due to direct effects on the hypothalamic pathways that control prolactin secretion. Little else can be said with confidence about the neuroendocrine mechanisms that lead to the seasonal changes in prolactin secretion. Dopamine and noradrenaline turnover in the arcuate nucleus and median eminence decrease under short daylength. If catecholamine turnover in these structures is positively correlated with catecholamine concentrations in the long or short hypophysial portal vessels, it is unlikely that the decrease in prolactin concentration in winter is due to the effects of increased concentrations of dopamine or noradrenaline in the portal vessels. There is, however, evidence for increased pituitary sensitivity to dopamine under short daylength, so increased dopamine concentrations may not be required for suppression of prolactin secretion at this time. In addition to the diminished secretion of prolactin under short daylength, rate of prolactin synthesis and pituitary content of prolactin also decline although the mechanisms that regulate these changes are poorly understood. Although all seasonal breeders show a seasonal change in prolactin secretion, there are continuously breeding species in which prolactin secretion is

Climate-related variation in plant peak biomass and growth phenology across Pacific Northwest tidal marshes

Science.gov (United States)

Buffington, Kevin J.; Dugger, Bruce D.; Thorne, Karen M.

2018-03-01

The interannual variability of tidal marsh plant phenology is largely unknown and may have important ecological consequences. Marsh plants are critical to the biogeomorphic feedback processes that build estuarine soils, maintain marsh elevation relative to sea level, and sequester carbon. We calculated Tasseled Cap Greenness, a metric of plant biomass, using remotely sensed data available in the Landsat archive to assess how recent climate variation has affected biomass production and plant phenology across three maritime tidal marshes in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. First, we used clipped vegetation plots at one of our sites to confirm that tasseled cap greenness provided a useful measure of aboveground biomass (r2 = 0.72). We then used multiple measures of biomass each growing season over 20-25 years per study site and developed models to test how peak biomass and the date of peak biomass varied with 94 climate and sea-level metrics using generalized linear models and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) model selection. Peak biomass was positively related to total annual precipitation, while the best predictor for date of peak biomass was average growing season temperature, with the peak 7.2 days earlier per degree C. Our study provides insight into how plants in maritime tidal marshes respond to interannual climate variation and demonstrates the utility of time-series remote sensing data to assess ecological responses to climate stressors.

Evaluation of the Effects of Nationwide Conservation Voltage Reduction on Peak-Load Shaving Using SOMAS Data

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Soon-Ryul Nam

2013-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper we propose a new method to evaluate the effects of nationwide conservation voltage reduction (CVR on peak-load shaving, using substation operating results management system (SOMAS data. Its evaluation is based on a national CVR factor, which is defined as the weighted average of CVR factors associated with all transformer banks and weighting coefficients are determined by the reconstructed loads corresponding to each transformer bank. To make use of the data resulting from nationwide CVR without installing additional measuring devices, we adopt a linearized static-load model with a linearizing parameter. SOMAS data are used to evaluate the effects of nationwide CVR on peak-load shaving in the Korean power system. Evaluation results show that the national CVR factor of the Korean power system has small values in the summer season and large values in the winter season. This means that the effect of nationwide CVR on peak-load shaving in the Korean power system presents stronger benefits during winter months.

The role of mesoscale convective systems in the diurnal cycle of rainfall and its seasonality over sub-Saharan Northern Africa

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Liu, Weiran; Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward K.

2018-03-01

This study evaluates the role of MCSs in the total rainfall distribution as a function of season from a climatological perspective (1998-2014) over sub-Saharan northern Africa and examines how the diurnal cycle of rainfall changes with season. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42V7 rainfall estimates and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to evaluate the climatology. The percentages of the full TRMM precipitation delivered by MCSs have meridional structures in spring, fall and winter, ranging from 0 to 80% across sub-Saharan northern Africa, while the percentages are homogenous in summer (> 80%). The diurnal cycles of MCS-associated precipitation coincide with the full TRMM rainfall. Attributes of MCSs, including size, count, and intensity, vary synchronously with the diurnal cycle of rainfall. The diurnal peaks are classified into three categories: single afternoon peak, continuous afternoon peak, and nocturnal peak. Single afternoon peaks dominate in spring and fall while continuous afternoon and nocturnal peaks are more common in summer, indicating the seasonality of the diurnal cycle. The continuous afternoon peak combines rainfall from two system types—one locally-generated and one propagating. The seasonality of the diurnal cycle is related to the seasonality of MCS lifetimes, and propagation speeds and directions. The moisture component of the MSE profile contributes to the instability most in summer when convection is more frequent. Low-level temperature, which is related to surface warming and sensible heat fluxes, influences the instability more during winter and spring.

Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, Joe H., III

2010-01-01

The expected peak wind speed of the day is an important forecast element in the 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts. The forecasts are used for ground and space launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45 WS also issues wind advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect wind gusts to meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated peak wind speeds are challenging to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October - April. In Phase I of this task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool to help the 45 WS forecast non-convective winds at KSC/CCAFS for the 24-hour period of 0800 to 0800 local time. The tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI displayed the forecast of peak wind speed, 5-minute average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, timing of the peak wind and probability the peak speed would meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. For the current task (Phase II ), the 45 WS requested additional observations be used for the creation of the forecast equations by expanding the period of record (POR). Additional parameters were evaluated as predictors, including wind speeds between 500 ft and 3000 ft, static stability classification, Bulk Richardson Number, mixing depth, vertical wind shear, temperature inversion strength and depth and wind direction. Using a verification data set, the AMU compared the performance of the Phase I and II prediction methods. Just as in Phase I, the tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel GUI. The 45 WS requested the tool also be available in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The AMU first expanded the POR by two years by adding tower observations, surface observations and CCAFS (XMR) soundings for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The POR was expanded

Seasonal variation of seismic ambient noise level at King Sejong Station, Antarctica

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, W.; Sheen, D.; Seo, K.; Yun, S.

2009-12-01

The generation of the secondary- or double-frequency (DF) microseisms with dominant frequencies between 0.1 and 0.5 Hz has been explained by nonlinear second-order pressure perturbations on the ocean bottom due to the interference of two ocean waves of equal wavelengths traveling in opposite directions. Korea Polar Research Institute (KOPRI) has been operating a broadband seismic station (KSJ1) at King George Island (KGI), Antarctica, since 2001. Examining the ambient seismic noise level for the period from 2006 to 2008 at KSJ1, we found a significant seasonal variation in the frequency range 0.1-0.5 Hz. Correlation of the DF peaks with significant ocean wave height and peak wave period models indicates that the oceanic infragravity waves in the Drake Passage is a possible source to excite the DF microseisms at KGI. Location of King Sejong Station, Antarctica Seasonal variations of DF peak, significant wave height, and peak wave period

Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

Science.gov (United States)

Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

2018-05-01

The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

Seasonal variability of the hydrogen exosphere of Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Halekas, J. S.

2017-05-01

The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission measures both the upstream solar wind and collisional products from energetic neutral hydrogen atoms that precipitate into the upper atmosphere after their initial formation by charge exchange with exospheric hydrogen. By computing the ratio between the densities of these populations, we derive a robust measurement of the column density of exospheric hydrogen upstream of the Martian bow shock. By comparing with Chamberlain-type model exospheres, we place new constraints on the structure and escape rates of exospheric hydrogen, derived from observations sensitive to a different and potentially complementary column from most scattered sunlight observations. Our observations provide quantitative estimates of the hydrogen exosphere with nearly complete temporal coverage, revealing order of magnitude seasonal changes in column density and a peak slightly after perihelion, approximately at southern summer solstice. The timing of this peak suggests either a lag in the response of the Martian atmosphere to solar inputs or a seasonal effect driven by lower atmosphere dynamics. The high degree of seasonal variability implied by our observations suggests that the Martian atmosphere and the thermal escape of light elements depend sensitively on solar inputs.

Between Two Worlds: Twin Peaks and the Film/Television Divide

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Siobhan Lyons

2017-04-01

Full Text Available In 1992, the year David Lynch’s cult television series 'Twin Peaks' was pulled off air, Lynch released the film 'Twin Peaks: Fire Walk with Me', a prequel to the television series which filled in some of the gaps left from the series finale cliff-hanger. The film was received with unanimously negative reviews from critics and fans alike, condemning both its subtle and obvious deviations from the series and its inclusion of the character Laura Palmer, whose absence was a crucial narrative device at the centre of 'Twin Peaks'. In film form, the 'Twin Peaks' narrative suffers from thematic inconsistencies and aesthetic deviations. The scope of 'Twin Peaks' seems much more capable in the setting of television and its gradual, episodic set-up. In recent years, however, with the announcement of a revival of the series, retrospective analysis of 'Fire Walk with Me' has become more positive, and the film has also become an integral part of the overall 'Twin Peaks' canon. Nevertheless, the transition from television to film in the case of 'Twin Peaks' has remained a point of fan and scholarly controversy, with issues of continuity, narrative and aesthetics between the two different mediums continually being addressed and compared. In light of the news that the new season of 'Twin Peaks' is set to be released in 2017, this article examines the significance of 'Fire Walk with Me' as a cinematic counterpart and prequel to the original series, and how this has helped shape – whether positively or not – the overall narrative of 'Twin Peaks'.

The impact of global warming on seasonality of ocean primary production

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S. Henson

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The seasonal cycle (i.e. phenology of oceanic primary production (PP is expected to change in response to climate warming. Here, we use output from 6 global biogeochemical models to examine the response in the seasonal amplitude of PP and timing of peak PP to the IPCC AR5 warming scenario. We also investigate whether trends in PP phenology may be more rapidly detectable than trends in annual mean PP. The seasonal amplitude of PP decreases by an average of 1–2% per year by 2100 in most biomes, with the exception of the Arctic which sees an increase of ~1% per year. This is accompanied by an advance in the timing of peak PP by ~0.5–1 months by 2100 over much of the globe, and particularly pronounced in the Arctic. These changes are driven by an increase in seasonal amplitude of sea surface temperature (where the maxima get hotter faster than the minima and a decrease in the seasonal amplitude of the mixed layer depth and surface nitrate concentration. Our results indicate a transformation of currently strongly seasonal (bloom forming regions, typically found at high latitudes, into weakly seasonal (non-bloom regions, characteristic of contemporary subtropical conditions. On average, 36 yr of data are needed to detect a climate-change-driven trend in the seasonal amplitude of PP, compared to 32 yr for mean annual PP. Monthly resolution model output is found to be inadequate for resolving phenological changes. We conclude that analysis of phytoplankton seasonality is not necessarily a shortcut to detecting climate change impacts on ocean productivity.

Autumn Weather and Winter Increase in Cerebrovascular Disease Mortality

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

McDonagh, R

2016-11-01

Mortality from cerebrovascular disease increases in winter but the cause is unclear. Ireland’s oceanic climate means that it infrequently experiences extremes of weather. We examined how weather patterns relate to stroke mortality in Ireland. Seasonal data for Sunshine (% of average), Rainfall (% of average) and Temperature (degrees Celsius above average) were collected for autumn (September-November) and winter (December-February) using official Irish Meteorological Office data. National cerebrovascular mortality data was obtained from Quarterly Vital Statistics. Excess winter deaths were calculated by subtracting (nadir) 3rd quarter mortality data from subsequent 1st quarter data. Data for 12 years were analysed, 2002-2014. Mean winter mortality excess was 24.7%. Winter mortality correlated with temperature (r=.60, p=0.04). Rise in winter mortality correlated strongly with the weather in the preceding autumn (Rainfall: r=-0.19 p=0.53, Temperature: r=-0.60, p=0.03, Sunshine, r=0.58, p=0.04). Winter cerebrovascular disease mortality appears higher following cool, sunny autum

Influenza Pandemics and Tuberculosis Mortality in 1889 and 1918: Analysis of Historical Data from Switzerland.

Science.gov (United States)

Zürcher, Kathrin; Zwahlen, Marcel; Ballif, Marie; Rieder, Hans L; Egger, Matthias; Fenner, Lukas

2016-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) mortality declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 200 years, but peaked during the Russian (1889) and the Spanish (1918) influenza pandemics. We studied the impact of these two pandemics on TB mortality. We retrieved historic data from mortality registers for the city of Bern and countrywide for Switzerland. We used Poisson regression models to quantify the excess pulmonary TB (PTB) mortality attributable to influenza. Yearly PTB mortality rates increased during both influenza pandemics. Monthly influenza and PTB mortality rates peaked during winter and early spring. In Bern, for an increase of 100 influenza deaths (per 100,000 population) monthly PTB mortality rates increased by a factor of 1.5 (95%Cl 1.4-1.6, ppandemic. Nationally, the factor was 2.0 (95%Cl 1.8-2.2, ppandemics. We demonstrate excess PTB mortality during historic influenza pandemics in Switzerland, which supports a role for influenza vaccination in PTB patients in high TB incidence countries.

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CALF MORTALITY ON DAIRY FARMS IN KUWAIT

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M. A. RAZZAQUE, M. BEDAIR, S. ABBAS AND T. AL-MUTAWA

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Objective of this study was to investigate the economic impact of mortality of pre-weaned calves on dairy cattle enterprise in Kuwait. Cost/benefit analysis model was applied to two different situations: in the first situation, a baseline scenario, field survey data without intervention using 1,280 newborn calves was used in first calving season. In the second situation, the intervention scenario (improved management, 665 newborn calves were used in second calving season during the following year. Calving seasons extended for 7 months from September to March. Calf performance studies were conducted from birth to weaning. Economic model was constructed on Microsoft Excel and used to evaluate the impact of calf mortality on calf enterprise. Results showed that gross margins increased from 13 to 35% as a result of implementation of intervention measures during the second calving season over baseline scenario. A significant correlation between increased veterinary expenses and an increase in revenues (r2 = 0.65, P<0.05 was observed. If the intervention measures such as colostrum feeding, nutrition and hygiene had not been implemented, the farms would have lose income from 12 to 51% of the gross revenues. Net income was influenced by costs of feeds, veterinary services and laborers. Discounted cash flow studies on a whole farm basis revealed that the impact of interventions was small (0-3%. Calf mortality could not be isolated from whole farm for assessing its impact on dairy farm economics. Economic studies demonstrated the cost/benefits of using the improved techniques of calf rearing.

Season and preterm birth in Norway: A cautionary tale.

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Weinberg, Clarice R; Shi, Min; DeRoo, Lisa A; Basso, Olga; Skjærven, Rolv

2015-06-01

Preterm birth is a common, costly and dangerous pregnancy complication. Seasonality of risk would suggest modifiable causes. We examine seasonal effects on preterm birth, using data from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway (2,321,652 births), and show that results based on births are misleading and a fetuses-at-risk approach is essential. In our harmonic-regression Cox proportional hazards model we consider fetal risk of birth between 22 and 37 completed weeks of gestation. We examine effects of both day of year of conception (for early effects) and day of ongoing gestation (for seasonal effects on labour onset) as modifiers of gestational-age-based risk. Naïve analysis of preterm rates across days of birth shows compelling evidence for seasonality (P distribution of the fetal population at risk. When we instead properly treat fetuses as the individuals at risk, restrict analysis to pregnancies with relatively accurate ultrasound-based assessment of gestational age (available since 1998) and adjust for socio-demographic factors and maternal smoking, we find modest effects of both time of year of conception and time of year at risk, with peaks for early preterm near early January and early July. Analyses of seasonal effects on preterm birth are demonstrably vulnerable to confounding by seasonality of conception, measurement error in conception dating, and socio-demographic factors. The seasonal variation based on fetuses reveals two peaks for early preterm, coinciding with New Year's Day and the early July beginning of Norway's summer break, and may simply reflect a holiday-related pattern of unintended conception. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association 2015. This work is written by a US Government employee and is in the public domain in the US.

Seasonality in Violent and Nonviolent Methods of Suicide Attempts: A Cross-Sectional Study on Systematic Registry Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Veisani, Yousef; Delpisheh, Ali; Sayehmiri, Kourosh; Moradi, Ghobad; Hassanzadeh, Jafar

2017-08-01

Little attention has been paid to seasonality in suicide in Iran. Time pattern in suicide deaths and suicide attempts for some related factors such as gender, mental disorders has been found. In present study, we focus on suicide methods and the association with seasonality and other putative covariates such as gender. Through a cross-sectional study, overall identified suicide attempts and suicide deaths in the province of Ilam from 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2014 were enrolled. We used Edwards' test for test of seasonality in suicide methods. Seasonal effect (peak/trough seasons) and (deaths/attempts suicide) was explored by ratio statistics, the null hypothesis being that the attempted suicides in each method group are evenly distributed over a year. More suicide attempts by hanging 29.4% and self-immolation 41.4% were observed in spring and differ by season pattern in both genders. The overall distribution of suicides by violent and non-violent methods was (males x2=6.3, P=0.041, females x2=7.7, P=0.021) and (males x2=44.5, P=0.001, females x2=104.7, P=0.001), respectively. The peak and trough seasons was observed in taking medications and self-poisoning for spring and winter. Suicide with alcohol was no differ by season pattern (x2=1.0, P=0.460). Suicide in Ilam illustrates a significant seasonality for both violent and non-violent methods of suicide, in both genders, the two peaks were observed in spring and autumn for violent suicides, and spring and summer in non-violent suicides.

Japanese Interest in “Hotaru” (Fireflies) and “Kabuto-Mushi” (Japanese Rhinoceros Beetles) Corresponds with Seasonality in Visible Abundance

Science.gov (United States)

Takada, Kenta

2012-01-01

Seasonal changes in the popularity of fireflies [usually Genji-fireflies (Luciola cruciata Motschulsky) in Japan] and Japanese rhinoceros beetles [Allomyrina dichotoma (Linne)] were investigated to examine whether contemporary Japanese are interested in visible emergence of these insects as seasonal events. The popularity of fireflies and Japanese rhinoceros beetles was assessed by the Google search volume of their Japanese names, “Hotaru” and “Kabuto-mushi” in Japanese Katakana script using Google Trends. The search volume index for fireflies and Japanese rhinoceros beetles was distributed across seasons with a clear peak in only particular times of each year from 2004 to 2011. In addition, the seasonal peak of popularity for fireflies occurred at the beginning of June, whereas that for Japanese rhinoceros beetles occurred from the middle of July to the beginning of August. Thus seasonal peak of each species coincided with the peak period of the emergence of each adult stage. These findings indicated that the Japanese are interested in these insects primarily during the time when the two species are most visibly abundant. Although untested, this could suggest that fireflies and Japanese rhinoceros beetles are perceived by the general public as indicators or symbols of summer in Japan. PMID:26466535

Distribution, survivorship and mortality sources in immature stages of the neotropical leaf miner Pachyschelus coeruleipennis Kerremans (Coleoptera: Buprestidae

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QUEIROZ J. M.

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Distribution, sources of mortality, and survivorship of immatures was investigated during the reproductive season of the neotropical buprestid leaf miner, Pachyschelus coeruleipennis, that burrows in leaves of Croton floribundus (Euphorbiaceae in SE, Brazil. Immature distribution was investigated by a random sample of 120 shrubs of C. floribundus growing along forest edges. Marked leaves were followed to recorded sources of mortality and survivorship of immature stages. Females lay their eggs preferentially in the young leaves of the host plant, with mines and pupal cells having been found on the middle part of plants. Densities of eggs, active mines, and pupal cells were, respectively, 25 ± 2, 6 ± 1, and 1 ± 0.3 per 100 leaves. Predators and parasitoids accounted for the majority of losses in the immature P. coeruleipennis population. Mortality was 3 times lower in the egg stage than in the last larval instar. Predation rate was greater than parasitism but the latter increased much more during the development of immatures. Survivorship and sources of mortality were different between early and late season sample of leaf-miner immatures. Parasitism rate was greater in the late-season whereas predation was greater in early-season samples. These results are compared with mortality patterns described for other buprestid leaf miners in temperate and tropical regions.

What controls the atmospheric methane seasonal variability over India?

KAUST Repository

Guha, Tania; Tiwari, Yogesh K.; Valsala, Vinu; Lin, Xin; Ramonet, Michel; Mahajan, Anoop; Datye, Amey; Kumar, K. Ravi

2017-01-01

Atmospheric CH4 observations from two ground-based stations within Indian subcontinent, namely, Sinhagad (SNG) and Cape Rama station (CRI) showed a strong seasonality with a minima (∼1800 ± 20 ppb) during southwest monsoon (SWM; i.e. June–September, JJAS) and a maxima (2000 ± 30 ppb) during northeast monsoon (NEM i.e. December–February, DJF) with a peak-to-peak seasonality close to 200 ppb. The Indian summer (winter) monsoon is characterized with strong southwesterly (northeasterly) winds of oceanic origin at the surface level and strong easterly (westerly) jet streams aloft. The monsoon dynamics has pronounced impact on CH4 variability over India and is analyzed with winds, Lagrangian trajectories, and 3-dimentional distributions of CH4 simulated by a general circulation model. The model simulations suggest a consistent annual vertical structure (mean and sub-seasonal uncertainty) of CH4 over India with a stark contrast in concentration from summer to winter at surface levels (below 750 mb) in confirmation with what is identified by the ground-based observations. During SWM (NEM) the air with comparatively lower (higher) CH4 concentrations from southern (northern) hemisphere reduces the CH4 over India by 1814 ± 26 ppb (enhances by 1950 ± 51 ppb). The contribution of local fluxes to this seasonality appears to be albeit weak as the synthesized CH4 fluxes (from EDGAR dataset) of the Indian peninsula itself show a peak in summer and a dip in winter. Similar property of CH4 is also common to nearby oceanic region (i.e. over Arabian Sea, 1765 ± 10 ppb during summer) suggesting the role of monsoon dynamics as the controlling factor. Further the mixing and convection carries the CH4 to the upper atmosphere and advect inward or outward aloft according the seasonal monsoon dynamics.

What controls the atmospheric methane seasonal variability over India?

KAUST Repository

Guha, Tania

2017-11-28

Atmospheric CH4 observations from two ground-based stations within Indian subcontinent, namely, Sinhagad (SNG) and Cape Rama station (CRI) showed a strong seasonality with a minima (∼1800 ± 20 ppb) during southwest monsoon (SWM; i.e. June–September, JJAS) and a maxima (2000 ± 30 ppb) during northeast monsoon (NEM i.e. December–February, DJF) with a peak-to-peak seasonality close to 200 ppb. The Indian summer (winter) monsoon is characterized with strong southwesterly (northeasterly) winds of oceanic origin at the surface level and strong easterly (westerly) jet streams aloft. The monsoon dynamics has pronounced impact on CH4 variability over India and is analyzed with winds, Lagrangian trajectories, and 3-dimentional distributions of CH4 simulated by a general circulation model. The model simulations suggest a consistent annual vertical structure (mean and sub-seasonal uncertainty) of CH4 over India with a stark contrast in concentration from summer to winter at surface levels (below 750 mb) in confirmation with what is identified by the ground-based observations. During SWM (NEM) the air with comparatively lower (higher) CH4 concentrations from southern (northern) hemisphere reduces the CH4 over India by 1814 ± 26 ppb (enhances by 1950 ± 51 ppb). The contribution of local fluxes to this seasonality appears to be albeit weak as the synthesized CH4 fluxes (from EDGAR dataset) of the Indian peninsula itself show a peak in summer and a dip in winter. Similar property of CH4 is also common to nearby oceanic region (i.e. over Arabian Sea, 1765 ± 10 ppb during summer) suggesting the role of monsoon dynamics as the controlling factor. Further the mixing and convection carries the CH4 to the upper atmosphere and advect inward or outward aloft according the seasonal monsoon dynamics.

Influenza vaccine coverage, influenza-associated morbidity and all-cause mortality in Catalonia (Spain).

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz, M Pilar; Soldevila, Núria; Martínez, Anna; Carmona, Glòria; Batalla, Joan; Acosta, Lesly M; Domínguez, Angela

2011-07-12

The objective of this work was to study the behaviour of influenza with respect to morbidity and all-cause mortality in Catalonia, and their association with influenza vaccination coverage. The study was carried out over 13 influenza seasons, from epidemiological week 40 of 1994 to week 20 of 2007, and included confirmed cases of influenza and all-cause mortality. Two generalized linear models were fitted: influenza-associated morbidity was modelled by Poisson regression and all-cause mortality by negative binomial regression. The seasonal component was modelled with the periodic function formed by the sum of the sinus and cosines. Expected influenza mortality during periods of influenza virus circulation was estimated by Poisson regression and its confidence intervals using the Bootstrap approach. Vaccination coverage was associated with a reduction in influenza-associated morbidity (pcase of influenza-associated morbidity, an increase of 5% in vaccination coverage represented a reduction of 3% in the incidence rate of influenza. There was a positive association between influenza-associated morbidity and all-cause mortality. Excess mortality attributable to influenza epidemics was estimated as 34.4 (95% CI: 28.4-40.8) weekly deaths. In conclusion, all-cause mortality is a good indicator of influenza surveillance and vaccination coverage is associated with a reduction in influenza-associated morbidity but not with all-cause mortality. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Canary Basin contribution to 26ºN AMOC Seasonality

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Hernández, M. D.; McCarthy, G.; Smeed, D.; Hernandez-Guerra, A.; Vélez-Belchí, P.

2014-12-01

Recent studies have shown that the seasonal transport of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is linked with seasonal density changes in the eastern boundary of the Atlantic. As measured by the RAPID/MOCHA array, the AMOC has a seasonal peak-to-peak value of 6 Sv, with two relative maximums in July and October. The relative maximum in October coincides with the weakest transport of the upper mid-ocean transport (UMO), from the Bahamas to the eastern boundary, whose amplitude is 4 Sv. The seasonally averaged dynamic height indicates that the major source of seasonal variability in the UMO is due to the eastern boundary in fall. Data from the RAPID/MOCHA array at 26ºN is analyzed together with the data from a 15-year mooring between the African coast and the Canary Islands at 28ºN, in the Lanzarote Passage, the so-called Eastern Boundary Current Mooring (EBC4). The seasonal dynamics of the eastern boundary is analyzed: the recirculation of the Canary Current in fall through the Lanzarote Passage, the Rossby wave formation and the wind forcing. Significant correlations are found between the transport through the LP and the UMO. The transport of the North Atlantic Central Water (NACW) as measured by the EBC4 mooring has a correlation of 0.75 at zero lag with the UMO transport, and the transport of the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) and Mediterranean Water (MW) are correlated 0.77/0.85 respectively, with a lag of one moth with the UMO. The results stress the importance of the eastern boundary in determining the seasonal variability of the AMOC, as measured by the RAPID/MOCHA array.

Modelling seasonal effects of temperature and precipitation on honey bee winter mortality in a temperate climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Switanek, Matthew; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo; Brodschneider, Robert

2017-02-01

Insect pollinators are essential to global food production. For this reason, it is alarming that honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations across the world have recently seen increased rates of mortality. These changes in colony mortality are often ascribed to one or more factors including parasites, diseases, pesticides, nutrition, habitat dynamics, weather and/or climate. However, the effect of climate on colony mortality has never been demonstrated. Therefore, in this study, we focus on longer-term weather conditions and/or climate's influence on honey bee winter mortality rates across Austria. Statistical correlations between monthly climate variables and winter mortality rates were investigated. Our results indicate that warmer and drier weather conditions in the preceding year were accompanied by increased winter mortality. We subsequently built a statistical model to predict colony mortality using temperature and precipitation data as predictors. Our model reduces the mean absolute error between predicted and observed colony mortalities by 9% and is statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. This is the first study to show clear evidence of a link between climate variability and honey bee winter mortality. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate-related variation in plant peak biomass and growth phenology across Pacific Northwest tidal marshes

Science.gov (United States)

Buffington, Kevin J.; Dugger, Bruce D.; Thorne, Karen M.

2018-01-01

The interannual variability of tidal marsh plant phenology is largely unknown and may have important ecological consequences. Marsh plants are critical to the biogeomorphic feedback processes that build estuarine soils, maintain marsh elevation relative to sea level, and sequester carbon. We calculated Tasseled Cap Greenness, a metric of plant biomass, using remotely sensed data available in the Landsat archive to assess how recent climate variation has affected biomass production and plant phenology across three maritime tidal marshes in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. First, we used clipped vegetation plots at one of our sites to confirm that tasseled cap greenness provided a useful measure of aboveground biomass (r2 = 0.72). We then used multiple measures of biomass each growing season over 20–25 years per study site and developed models to test how peak biomass and the date of peak biomass varied with 94 climate and sea-level metrics using generalized linear models and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) model selection. Peak biomass was positively related to total annual precipitation, while the best predictor for date of peak biomass was average growing season temperature, with the peak 7.2 days earlier per degree C. Our study provides insight into how plants in maritime tidal marshes respond to interannual climate variation and demonstrates the utility of time-series remote sensing data to assess ecological responses to climate stressors.

National Assessment of Climate Resources for Tourism Seasonality in China Using the Tourism Climate Index

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Yan Fang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Tourism is a very important industry, and it is deeply affected by climate. This article focuses on the role of climate in tourism seasonality and attempts to assess the impacts of climate resources on China’s tourism seasonality by using the Tourism Climate Index (TCI. Seasonal distribution maps of TCI scores indicate that the climates of most regions in China are comfortable for tourists during spring and autumn, while the climate conditions differ greatly in summer and winter, with “excellent”, “good”, “acceptable” and “unfavorable” existing almost by a latitudinal gradation. The number of good months throughout China varies from zero (the Tibetan Plateau area to 10 (Yunnan Province, and most localities have five to eight good months. Moreover, all locations in China can be classified as winter peak, summer peak and bi-modal shoulder peak. The results will provide some useful information for tourist destinations, travel agencies, tourism authorities and tourists.

The timing of birds' breeding seasons : the Perrins hypothesis revisited especially for migrants

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Drent, Rudolf H.

2006-01-01

Perrins (1970) galvanized thinking on the timing of birds' breeding seasons by pointing out that most individuals laid too late for the offspring to profit fully from the seasonal peak of food abundance, and suggested that the proximate cause was a shortage of food for the female when forming the

Phenological synchrony and seasonality of understory Rubiaceae in the Atlantic Forest, Bahia, Brazil

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Heitor Scarpati Liuth

2013-03-01

Full Text Available In tropical forests with low seasonality, climatic variables generally exert a weak influence on the phenology of species. The seasonality of phenophases in closely related taxa can be controlled by phylogenetic constraints in such environments. In this study, our aim was to describe the phenology of Rubiaceae in the understory of the Atlantic Forest in the southern part of Bahia, Brazil, as well as to evaluate the seasonality and phenological synchrony of this family. For two years, we observed 90 individuals belonging to 13 species, in an area of 0.2 ha. Leaf flushing and leaf fall did not demonstrate any seasonality, were continuous for most species and correlated with few of the climatic variables. Flowering was seasonal and correlated positively with all climatic variables. Species exhibited seasonality for this phenophase with high flowering overlap among species of Psychotria, indicating an aggregated pattern for this genus. Fruiting was also seasonal and correlated with all the climatic variables, unripe fruit development peaking at the beginning of the season during which humidity is highest and fruit ripening peaking in the season during which humidity is slightly lower. The vegetative and flowering patterns observed in the study area are commonly seen in other tropical forests. The reproductive seasonality of this family can facilitate the attraction of biotic agents, as postulated in the facilitation hypothesis. Our results demonstrate that climatic variables influenced the phenological patterns observed here, although the high reproductive seasonality and interspecific synchrony, especially in congeneric species, raises the possibility that phylogenetic proximity plays a role in the pattern of the family Rubiaceae.

Seasonal trends in sleep-disordered breathing: evidence from Internet search engine query data.

Science.gov (United States)

Ingram, David G; Matthews, Camilla K; Plante, David T

2015-03-01

The primary aim of the current study was to test the hypothesis that there is a seasonal component to snoring and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) through the use of Google search engine query data. Internet search engine query data were retrieved from Google Trends from January 2006 to December 2012. Monthly normalized search volume was obtained over that 7-year period in the USA and Australia for the following search terms: "snoring" and "sleep apnea". Seasonal effects were investigated by fitting cosinor regression models. In addition, the search terms "snoring children" and "sleep apnea children" were evaluated to examine seasonal effects in pediatric populations. Statistically significant seasonal effects were found using cosinor analysis in both USA and Australia for "snoring" (p search term in Australia (p = 0.13). Seasonal patterns for "snoring children" and "sleep apnea children" were observed in the USA (p = 0.002 and p search volume to examine these search terms in Australia. All searches peaked in the winter or early spring in both countries, with the magnitude of seasonal effect ranging from 5 to 50 %. Our findings indicate that there are significant seasonal trends for both snoring and sleep apnea internet search engine queries, with a peak in the winter and early spring. Further research is indicated to determine the mechanisms underlying these findings, whether they have clinical impact, and if they are associated with other comorbid medical conditions that have similar patterns of seasonal exacerbation.

The gestational age pattern of human mortality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schöley, Jonas; Vaupel, James W.; Jacobsen, Rune

-infant lifetable by gestational age spanning week 23 until week 100 after the last menstrual period of the mother. This joint lifetable shows a remarkable regularity in the gestational age profile of fetal- and infant mortality: Mortality rates are declining over the whole observed age range with the exception......In order to check hypotheses about the cause for "ontogenescense" -- the phenomenon of a declining force of mortality prior to maturity -- I analyse data on human mortality by gestational age. Based on extensive microdata on births, fetal- and infant deaths in the US 2009 I calculate a joint fetal...... of a "birth hump" peaking week 38. The absolute rate of decline slows down over age. The observed gestational age pattern of the force of mortality is consistent with three hypotheses concerning the causes for ontogenescense: 1) Adaptation: as the organism growths it becomes more resilient towards death, 2...

From Fall to Spring, or Spring to Fall? Seasonal Cholera Transmission Cycles and Implications for Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A. S.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R.; Islam, S.; WE Reason

2010-12-01

Cholera remains a major public health threat in many developing countries around the world. The striking seasonality and the annual recurrence of this infectious disease in endemic areas continues to be of considerable interest to scientists and public health workers. Despite major advances in the ecological, and microbiological understanding of Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent, the role of underlying macro-scale hydroclimatic processes in propagating the disease in different seasons and years is not well understood. The incidence of cholera in the Bengal Delta region, the ‘native homeland’ of cholera, shows distinct biannual peaks in the southern floodplains, as opposed to single annual peaks in coastal areas and the northern parts of Bangladesh, as well as other cholera-endemic regions in the world. A coupled analysis of the regional hydroclimate and cholera incidence reveals a strong association of the spatio-temporal variability of incidence peaks with seasonal processes and extreme events. At a seasonal scale, the cycles indicate a spring-fall transmission pattern, contrary to the prevalent notion of a fall-spring transmission cycle. We show that the asymmetric seasonal hydroclimatology affects regional cholera dynamics by providing a coastal growth environment for bacteria in spring, while propagating transmission to fall by flooding. This seasonal interpretation of the progression of cholera has important implications, for formulating effective cholera intervention and mitigation efforts through improved water management and understanding the impacts of changing climate patterns on seasonal cholera transmission. (Water Environental Research Education Actionable Solutions Network)

Is there a clinically significant seasonal component to hospital admissions for atrial fibrillation?

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Moineddin Rahim

2004-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation is a common cardiac dysrhythmia, particularly in the elderly. Recent studies have indicated a statistically significant seasonal component to atrial fibrillation hospitalizations. Methods We conducted a retrospective population cohort study using time series analysis to evaluate seasonal patterns of atrial fibrillation hospitalizations for the province of Ontario for the years 1988 to 2001. Five different series methods were used to analyze the data, including spectral analysis, X11, R-Squared, autocorrelation function and monthly aggregation. Results This study found evidence of weak seasonality, most apparent at aggregate levels including both ages and sexes. There was dramatic increase in hospitalizations for atrial fibrillation over the years studied and an age dependent increase in rates per 100,000. Overall, the magnitude of seasonal difference between peak and trough months is in the order of 1.4 admissions per 100,000 population. The peaks for hospitalizations were predominantly in April, and the troughs in August. Conclusions Our study confirms statistical evidence of seasonality for atrial fibrillation hospitalizations. This effect is small in absolute terms and likely not significant for policy or etiological research purposes.

Evaluating the Effects of Temperature on Mortality in Manila City (Philippines from 2006–2010 Using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model

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Xerxes T. Seposo

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The effect of temperature on the risk of mortality has been described in numerous studies of category-specific (e.g., cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific mortality in temperate and subtropical countries, with consistent findings of U-, V-, and J-shaped exposure-response functions. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between temperature and mortality in Manila City (Philippines, during 2006–2010 to identify the potential susceptible populations. We collected daily all-cause and cause-specific death counts from the Philippine Statistics Authority-National Statistics Office and the meteorological variables were collected from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. Temperature-mortality relationships were modeled using Poisson regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear models, and were used to perform cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific analyses. The minimum mortality temperature was 30 °C, and increased risks of mortality were observed per 1 °C increase among elderly persons (RR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.31–1.80, women (RR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.27–1.69, and for respiratory causes of death (RR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.23–1.88. Seasonal effect modification was found to greatly affect the risks in the lower temperature range. Thus, the temperature-mortality relationship in Manila City exhibited an increased risk of mortality among elderly persons, women, and for respiratory-causes, with inherent effect modification in the season-specific analysis. The findings of this study may facilitate the development of public health policies to reduce the effects of air temperature on mortality, especially for these high-risk groups.

Seasonal variation in diurnal atmospheric grass pollen concentration profiles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Peel, Robert George; Ørby, Pia Viuf; Skjøth, Carsten Ambelas

2014-01-01

the time of day when peak concentrations are most likely to occur using seasonally averaged diurnal profiles. Atmospheric pollen loads are highly dependent upon emissions, and different species of grass are known to flower and emit pollen at different times of the day and during different periods......In this study, the diurnal atmospheric grass pollen concentration profile within the Danish city of Aarhus was shown to change in a systematic manner as the pollen season progressed. Although diurnal grass pollen profiles can differ greatly from day-to-day, it is common practice to establish...... of the pollen season. Pollen concentrations are also influenced by meteorological factors - directly through those parameters that govern pollen dispersion and transport, and indirectly through the weather-driven flowering process. We found that three different profiles dominated the grass pollen season...

Seasonal Accumulation and Depletion of Local Sediment Stores of Four Headwater Catchments

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Sarah E. Martin

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Seasonal turbidity patterns and event-level hysteresis analysis of turbidity verses discharge in four 1 km2 headwater catchments in California’s Sierra Nevada indicate localized in-channel sediment sources and seasonal accumulation-depletion patterns of stream sediments. Turbidity signals were analyzed for three years in order to look at the relationships between seasonal turbidity trends, event turbidity patterns, and precipitation type to stream sediment production and transport. Seasonal patterns showed more turbidity events associated with fall and early to mid- winter events than with peak snow-melt. No significant turbidity patterns emerged for periods of snow melt vs. rain. Single event hysteresis loops showed clockwise patterns were dominant suggesting local sediment sources. In successive discharge events, the largest turbidity spike was often associated with the first but not necessarily the largest discharge event-indicating seasonal depletion of local sediment stores. In multi-peaked discharge events, hysteresis loops shifted from clockwise to linear or random patterns suggesting that localized sediment stores are being used up and sufficient flow energy must be reached to start entraining the more consolidated bank/bed sediment or that dominant sediment sources may be shifting to less localized areas such as hill slopes. A conceptual model with phases of accumulation and transport is proposed.

When and where does mortality occur in migratory birds? Direct evidence from long-term satellite tracking of raptors.

Science.gov (United States)

Klaassen, Raymond H G; Hake, Mikael; Strandberg, Roine; Koks, Ben J; Trierweiler, Christiane; Exo, Klaus-Michael; Bairlein, Franz; Alerstam, Thomas

2014-01-01

Information about when and where animals die is important to understand population regulation. In migratory animals, mortality might occur not only during the stationary periods (e.g. breeding and wintering) but also during the migration seasons. However, the relative importance of population limiting factors during different periods of the year remains poorly understood, and previous studies mainly relied on indirect evidence. Here, we provide direct evidence about when and where migrants die by identifying cases of confirmed and probable deaths in three species of long-distance migratory raptors tracked by satellite telemetry. We show that mortality rate was about six times higher during migration seasons than during stationary periods. However, total mortality was surprisingly similar between periods, which can be explained by the fact that risky migration periods are shorter than safer stationary periods. Nevertheless, more than half of the annual mortality occurred during migration. We also found spatiotemporal patterns in mortality: spring mortality occurred mainly in Africa in association with the crossing of the Sahara desert, while most mortality during autumn took place in Europe. Our results strongly suggest that events during the migration seasons have an important impact on the population dynamics of long-distance migrants. We speculate that mortality during spring migration may account for short-term annual variation in survival and population sizes, while mortality during autumn migration may be more important for long-term population regulation (through density-dependent effects). © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Cognitive Resilience and Psychological Responses across a Collegiate Rowing Season.

Science.gov (United States)

Shields, Morgan R; Brooks, M Alison; Koltyn, Kelli F; Kim, Jee-Seon; Cook, Dane B

2017-11-01

Student-athletes face numerous challenges across their competitive season. Although mood states have been previously studied, little is known about adaptations in other psychological responses, specifically cognition. The purpose of this study was to characterize cognitive function, mood, sleep, and stress responses at select time points of a season in collegiate rowers. It was hypothesized that during baseline, typical training, and recovery, athletes would show positive mental health profiles, in contrast to decreases in cognition with increases in negative mood and measurements of stress during peak training. Male and female Division I rowers (N = 43) and healthy controls (N = 23) were enrolled and assessed at baseline, typical training, peak training, and recovery. At each time point, measures of cognitive performance (Stroop color-naming task), academic and exercise load, perceived cognitive deficits, mood states, sleep, and stress (via self-report and salivary cortisol) were recorded. Repeated-measures ANOVA revealed significant group-time interactions for perceived exercise load, cognitive deficits, mood states, and perceived stress (P cognitive deficits was positively correlated with mood disturbance (r = 0.54, P Cognitive performance did not change over the course of the season for either group. Cortisol and sleepiness changed over the course of the season but no significant interactions were observed. These results demonstrate that various psychological responses change over the course of a season, but they also highlight adaptation indicative of cognitive resilience among student-athletes.

Spatiotemporal analysis of particulate air pollution and ischemic heart disease mortality in Beijing, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Meimei; Guo, Yuming; Zhang, Yajuan; Westerdahl, Dane; Mo, Yunzheng; Liang, Fengchao; Pan, Xiaochuan

2014-12-12

Few studies have used spatially resolved ambient particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of <10 μm (PM10) to examine the impact of PM10 on ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in China. The aim of our study is to evaluate the short-term effects of PM10 concentrations on IHD mortality by means of spatiotemporal analysis approach. We collected daily data on air pollution, weather conditions and IHD mortality in Beijing, China during 2008 and 2009. Ordinary kriging (OK) was used to interpolate daily PM10 concentrations at the centroid of 287 township-level areas based on 27 monitoring sites covering the whole city. A generalized additive mixed model was used to estimate quantitatively the impact of spatially resolved PM10 on the IHD mortality. The co-effects of the seasons, gender and age were studied in a stratified analysis. Generalized additive model was used to evaluate the effects of averaged PM10 concentration as well. The averaged spatially resolved PM10 concentration at 287 township-level areas was 120.3 ± 78.1 μg/m3. Ambient PM10 concentration was associated with IHD mortality in spatiotemporal analysis and the strongest effects were identified for the 2-day average. A 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10 was associated with an increase of 0.33% (95% confidence intervals: 0.13%, 0.52%) in daily IHD mortality. The effect estimates using spatially resolved PM10 were larger than that using averaged PM10. The seasonal stratification analysis showed that PM10 had the statistically stronger effects on IHD mortality in summer than that in the other seasons. Males and older people demonstrated the larger response to PM10 exposure. Our results suggest that short-term exposure to particulate air pollution is associated with increased IHD mortality. Spatial variation should be considered for assessing the impacts of particulate air pollution on mortality.

Seasonal variations in growth and body composition of 8-11-year-old Danish children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dalskov, Stine-Mathilde; Ritz, Christian; Larnkjær, Anni

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Earlier studies on seasonality in growth reported the largest height gains during spring and largest body weight gains during autumn. We examined seasonality in height, body weight, BMI, fat mass index (FMI) and fat-free mass index (FFMI) among contemporary Danish 8-11-year......-olds. METHODS: 760 children from the OPUS School Meal Study provided >2200 measurements on height, body weight and composition between September-June. Average velocities were calculated using change-score analyses based on three-month intervals. As a complementary analysis, point velocities derived from...... suggest seasonality in growth and body composition of Danish children. We recovered the well-known height velocity peak during spring time, but unlike earlier studies we found coincident peaks in body weight, BMI, and FFMI velocities.Pediatric Research (2015); doi:10.1038/pr.2015.206....

Influenza mortality in the United States, 2009 pandemic: burden, timing and age distribution.

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Ann M Nguyen

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In April 2009, the most recent pandemic of influenza A began. We present the first estimates of pandemic mortality based on the newly-released final data on deaths in 2009 and 2010 in the United States. METHODS: We obtained data on influenza and pneumonia deaths from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS. Age- and sex-specific death rates, and age-standardized death rates, were calculated. Using negative binomial Serfling-type methods, excess mortality was calculated separately by sex and age groups. RESULTS: In many age groups, observed pneumonia and influenza cause-specific mortality rates in October and November 2009 broke month-specific records since 1959 when the current series of detailed US mortality data began. Compared to the typical pattern of seasonal flu deaths, the 2009 pandemic age-specific mortality, as well as influenza-attributable (excess mortality, skewed much younger. We estimate 2,634 excess pneumonia and influenza deaths in 2009-10; the excess death rate in 2009 was 0.79 per 100,000. CONCLUSIONS: Pandemic influenza mortality skews younger than seasonal influenza. This can be explained by a protective effect due to antigenic cycling. When older cohorts have been previously exposed to a similar antigen, immune memory results in lower death rates at older ages. Age-targeted vaccination of younger people should be considered in future pandemics.

Control of deaths from diarrheal disease in rural communities. I. Design of an intervention study and effects on child mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Kielmann, A A; Mobarak, A B; Hammamy, M T; Gomaa, A I; Abou-el-Saad, S; Lotfi, R K; Mazen, I; Nagaty, A

1985-12-01

From May through October 1980, the "Strengthening Rural Health Delivery" project (SRHD) under the Rural Health Department of the Ministry of Health of Egypt had conducted an investigation into prevention of child mortality from diarrheal disease through testing various modules of Oral Rehydration Therapy delivery mechanisms. In a six-cell design counting a total of almost 29,000 children, ORT was provided both as hypotonic sucrose/salt solution prepared and administered by mothers and normotonic, balanced electrolyte solution in the hands of both mothers and health care providers and the effects on child mortality during the peak season of diarrheal incidence were measured. In addition, utilization and effects of ORT when made readily available through commercial channels was similarly examined. A cost-benefit analysis was performed on the cost of the services as well as on the outcome for each of five study cells using the sixth, the control, as reference. Results showed that early rehydration with a sucrose/salt solution in the hands of mothers, backed by balanced oral rehydration solution in the hands of health care providers proved the most cost-effective means of reducing diarrhea-specific mortality as well as being as safe as prepackaged commercial preparations.

Excess mortality in Italy: Should we care about low influenza vaccine uptake?

Science.gov (United States)

Fausto, Francia; Paolo, Pandolfi; Anna, Odone; Carlo, Signorelli

2018-03-01

The aims of this study were to explore 2015 mortality data further and to assess excess deaths' determinants. We analysed data from a large metropolitan area in the north of Italy, the city of Bologna. We took advantage of a comprehensive local-level database and merged three different data sources to analitically explore reported 2014-2015 excess mortality and its determinants. Effect estimates were derived from multivariable Poisson regression analysis, according to vaccination status and frailty index. We report 9.8% excess mortality in 2015 compared to 2014, with seasonal and age distribution patterns in line with national figures. All-cause mortality in the elderly population is 36% higher (risk ratio [RR]=1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27-1.45) in subjects not vaccinated against seasonal flu compared to vaccinated subjects, with risk of death for influenza or pneumonia being 43% higher (RR=1.43, 95% CI 1.02-2.00) in unvaccinated subjects. Reported excess mortality's determinants in Italy should be further explored. Elderly subjects not vaccinated against the flu appear to have increased risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality compared to vaccinated subjects after accounting for possible confounders. Our findings raise awareness of the need to promote immunisation against the flu among elder populations and offer insights to plan and implement effective public-health interventions.

Observation of seasonal variation of atmospheric multiple-muon events in the MINOS near and far detectors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adamson, P. [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States). et al.

2015-06-09

We report the first observation of seasonal modulations in the rates of cosmic ray multiple-muon events at two underground sites, the MINOS Near Detector with an overburden of 225 mwe, and the MINOS Far Detector site at 2100 mwe. Thus, at the deeper site, multiple-muon events with muons separated by more than 8 m exhibit a seasonal rate that peaks during the summer, similar to that of single-muon events. In contrast and unexpectedly, the rate of multiple-muon events with muons separated by less than 5–8 m, and the rate of multiple-muon events in the smaller, shallower Near Detector, exhibit a seasonal rate modulation that peaks in the winter.

Spatiotemporal analysis for the effect of ambient particulate matter on cause-specific respiratory mortality in Beijing, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xuying; Guo, Yuming; Li, Guoxing; Zhang, Yajuan; Westerdahl, Dane; Jin, Xiaobin; Pan, Xiaochuan; Chen, Liangfu

2016-06-01

This study explored the association between particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 μm (PM10) and the cause-specific respiratory mortality. We used the ordinary kriging method to estimate the spatial characteristics of ambient PM10 at 1-km × 1-km resolution across Beijing during 2008-2009 and subsequently fit the exposure-response relationship between the estimated PM10 and the mortality due to total respiratory disease, chronic lower respiratory disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and pneumonia at the street or township area levels using the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). We also examined the effects of age, gender, and season in the stratified analysis. The effects of ambient PM10 on the cause-specific respiratory mortality were the strongest at lag0-5 except for pneumonia, and an inter-quantile range increase in PM10 was associated with an 8.04 % (95 % CI 4.00, 12.63) increase in mortality for total respiratory disease, a 6.63 % (95 % CI 1.65, 11.86) increase for chronic lower respiratory disease, and a 5.68 % (95 % CI 0.54, 11.09) increase for COPD, respectively. Higher risks due to the PM10 exposure were observed for females and elderly individuals. Seasonal stratification analysis showed that the effects of PM10 on mortality due to pneumonia were stronger during spring and autumn. While for COPD, the effect of PM10 in winter was statistically significant (15.54 %, 95 % CI 5.64, 26.35) and the greatest among the seasons. The GAMM model evaluated stronger associations between concentration of PM10. There were significant associations between PM10 and mortality due to respiratory disease at the street or township area levels. The GAMM model using high-resolution PM10 could better capture the association between PM10 and respiratory mortality. Gender, age, and season also acted as effect modifiers for the relationship between PM10 and respiratory mortality.

Malaria prevalence defined by microscopy, antigen detection, DNA amplification and total nucleic acid amplification in a malaria-endemic region during the peak malaria transmission season.

Science.gov (United States)

Waitumbi, John N; Gerlach, Jay; Afonina, Irina; Anyona, Samuel B; Koros, Joseph N; Siangla, Joram; Ankoudinova, Irina; Singhal, Mitra; Watts, Kate; Polhemus, Mark E; Vermeulen, Nicolaas M; Mahoney, Walt; Steele, Matt; Domingo, Gonzalo J

2011-07-01

To determine the malaria prevalence by microscopy, antigen detection and nucleic acid detection in a defined subpopulation in a Plasmodium falciparum-endemic region during the peak transmission season. Blood specimens were collected in a cross-sectional study involving children aged 5-10 years (n = 195) presenting with acute fever to two clinics in Western Kenya. All specimens underwent microscopy, HRP2 and aldolase antigen detection by enzyme immunoassay (EIA), parasite-specific DNA and total nucleic acid (RNA and DNA) by real-time PCR (qPCR) and reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR). Microscopy detected 65/195 cases of malaria infection [95% confidence interval (CI) 52-78]. HRP2 and aldolase EIA had similar sensitivity levels detecting antigen in 65/195 (95% CI, 52-78) and 57/195 (95% CI, 45-70) cases. Discordants in antigen detection vs. microscopy occurred at Detection of total nucleic acid allowed a 3 log lower limit of detection than just DNA detection by real-time PCR in vitro. In clinical specimens, 114/195 (95% CI, 100-127) were qPCR positive (DNA), and 187/195 (95% CI, 179-191) were qRT-PCR positive (DNA plus RNA). The prevalence of submicroscopic malaria infection was significantly higher when detecting total nucleic acid than just DNA in this outpatient population during the high transmission season. Defining standards for submicroscopic infection will be important for control programmes, diagnostics development efforts and molecular epidemiology studies. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Seasonal patterns of seismicity and deformation at the Alutu geothermal reservoir, Ethiopia, induced by hydrological loading

Science.gov (United States)

Birhanu, Yelebe; Wilks, Matthew; Biggs, Juliet; Kendall, J.-Michael; Ayele, Atalay; Lewi, Elias

2018-05-01

Seasonal variations in the seismicity of volcanic and geothermal reservoirs are usually attributed to the hydrological cycle. Here, we focus on the Aluto-Langano geothermal system, Ethiopia, where the climate is monsoonal and there is abundant shallow seismicity. We deployed temporary networks of seismometers and GPS receivers to understand the drivers of unrest. First, we show that a statistically significant peak in seismicity occurred 2-3 months after the main rainy season, with a second, smaller peak of variable timing. Seasonal seismicity is commonly attributed to variations in either surface loading or reservoir pore pressure. As loading will cause subsidence and overpressure will cause uplift, comparing seismicity rates with continuous GPS, enables us to distinguish between mechanisms. At Aluto, the major peak in seismicity is coincident with the high stand of nearby lakes and maximum subsidence, indicating that it is driven by surface loading. The magnitude of loading is insufficient to trigger widespread crustal seismicity but the geothermal reservoir at Aluto is likely sensitive to small perturbations in the stress field. Thus we demonstrate that monsoonal loading can produce seismicity in geothermal reservoirs, and the likelihood of both triggered and induced seismicity varies seasonally.

Seasonal abundance and molecular identification of West Nile virus ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Seasonal abundance and molecular identification of West Nile virus vectors, Culex pipens and Culex ... Background: West Nile virus (WNV) infection, is an arbovirus infection with high morbidity and mortality, the vector respon- sible for both human ... Major diseases transmitted are known as Arboviral dis- eases because ...

The association between air pollution and mortality in Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Tawatsupa, Benjawan; Punnasiri, Kornwipa; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Williams, Gail

2014-07-01

Bayesian statistical inference with a case-crossover design was used to examine the effects of air pollutants {Particulate matter pollutants had significant short-term impacts on non-accidental mortality. An increase of 10 μg/m(3) in PM10, 10 ppb in O₃, 1 ppb in SO₂ were associated with a 0.40% (95% posterior interval (PI): 0.22, 0.59%), 0.78% (95% PI: 0.20, 1.35%) and 0.34% (95% PI: 0.17, 0.50%) increase of non-accidental mortality, respectively. O₃ air pollution is significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality, while PM10 is significantly related to respiratory mortality. In general, the effects of all pollutants on all mortality types were higher in summer and winter than those in the rainy season. This study highlights the effects of exposure to air pollution on mortality risks in Thailand. Our findings support the Thailand government in aiming to reduce high levels of air pollution.

High mortality and poor growth of green mussels, Perna viridis, in high chlorophyll- a environment

Science.gov (United States)

Soon, Tan Kar; Denil, Delta Jenetty; Ransangan, Julian

2016-03-01

The current study was carried out from May 2014 to April 2015 to estimate the stock status of P. viridis in Marudu Bay. The gonad development was monitored by histological examination, while the population parameters including asymptotic length ( L ∞), growth coefficient ( K), mortality rate ( Z, F and M), exploitation level ( E) and recruitment of P. viridis were estimated using the lengthfrequency data. Results of the current study demonstrated that P. viridis in Marudu Bay spawned throughout the year with two major peaks, one in April to May and another one in October to December. The recruitment pattern was continuous with the peak in May to June 2014, which corresponded to the first spawning peak in April. However, no significant recruitment was observed from the second spawning peak due to the difference in spawning timing between male and female populations. The estimated asymptotic length ( L ∞), growth coefficient ( K), total mortality ( Z), natural mortality ( M), fishing mortality ( F) and growth performance ( φ) of P. viridis in Marudu Bay were estimate to be 117 mm, 0.97 yr-1, 4.39 yr-1, 1.23 yr-1, 3.16 yr-1 and 4.123, respectively. The exponent b of the lengthweight relationship was 2.4 and exploitation level ( E) was 0.72. The high mortality, low condition indices and negative allometric of P. viridis in Marudu Bay is caused by a lack of suitable food in the surrounding water.

Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

2005-01-01

During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

Detection of irradiation history of seasoning mixes composed of dried fish and its extract. TL analysis and application considerations for mineral separation from foods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sekiguchi, Masayuki; Nakagawa, Seiko; Yunoki, Syunji

2009-01-01

In the present study, the thermoluminescence (TL) method (EN1788) was used to detect the irradiation treatment of Japanese traditional seasoning mixes mainly composed of dried fish (bonito etc.) and its extract. The Glow 1 curves of minerals separated from the seasoning mixes using a heavy liquid showed significant single peaks at temperatures between 146.5degC and 175.4degC. The peaks are typical for irradiated food, despite the samples being not irradiated. The Glow 2 curves showed single peaks at temperatures higher than that of the Glow 1 curves (175.4degC to 217.9degC). The peak temperature of Glow 2 is usually lower than that of Glow 1 because the peaks from irradiated silicate minerals shift to higher temperatures with time. The TL glow ratios (Glow1/Glow2) calculated in the temperature ranges (167-232degC) defined by means of irradiated TLD-100 were above 0.1, suggesting that the mineral samples were contaminated with organic materials such as protein or bio-inorganic materials such as bone. In order to remove the possible contaminants, acid hydrolysis and subsequent heavy liquid separation were employed. The minerals thus obtained showed no Glow 1 peaks. A significant peak was observed at 213degC instead of peaks at lower temperature for the case of irradiated seasoning mixes (2.45 kGy). These results suggest that the TL method may provide false positives for the Japanese traditional seasoning mixes because of luminescence from some components other than silicate minerals. It appears that EN1788 needs some modification to precisely detect food irradiation for the seasoning mixes. (author)

Wind turbines in Switzerland - Bat mortality; Eoliennes en Suisse - Mortalite de chauves-souris

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leuzinger, Y.; Lugon, A.; Bontadina, F.

2008-03-15

There are growing concerns about possible negative impact of wind turbines on bats. In this study we evaluated the occurrence of bat mortality caused by wind turbines in Switzerland. From about 20 existing wind turbines in year 2007 we selected five medium to large sized turbines in two hilly regions of Switzerland. Between June and October we searched 10 times in regular intervals for carcasses on the ground (total 50 controls) in a circle of up to 40 m distance to the tower. We measured detectability and bait removal rates by experiments at every site (using 12 dummy bats and 10 dead mice per site, respectively). Two bat carcasses were found at two sites, one of the migrating species N. leisleri in August, another in September, belonging to the non-migrating species P. pipistrellus. The detectability was 74 {+-} 13% (mean {+-} standard deviation). The removal rate was 72 {+-} 25% in the first 2-3 days and an average of 91% in the control intervals of 15 days. Estimates of seasonal bat mortality, corrected for season, detectability and removal rate, revealed an average of 8.2 (range 4.9 - 11.4) dead bats per turbine and season. This study demonstrates the occurrence of bat mortality caused by wind turbines in Switzerland. However, the estimated mortality per season remains in international comparisons small to medium at the studied sites. The mortality of individuals of endangered and protected species is a serious issue, but most important, the long-term effect on populations is difficult to assess. In the case of the investigated wind turbines the negative impact on bats does not generally preclude the development of wind energy sites in Switzerland. We recommend avoiding sites in and near woodlands. The abundance of local and migratory bats at planned sites should be evaluated, obligatory in the case of larger wind parks and at exposed sites (ridge tops, mountain passes, river valleys), in order to consider adequately bat conservation. (author)

Preparing for the Season (A Cup of Health with CDC)

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

Flu season starts in the fall and goes through the spring, typically peaking between January and March in the United States. In this podcast, Dr. Joe Bresee discusses the importance of getting vaccinated against the flu every year.

Association between daily mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and air pollution in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Wen-Miin; Wei, Hsing-Yu; Kuo, Hsien-Wen

2009-01-01

Many studies have investigated the effects of air pollutants on disease and mortality. However, the results remain inconsistent and inconclusive. We thought that the impact of different seasons or ages of people may explain these differences. Measurement of the five pollutants (particulate matter or =65 group). Data on daily mortality caused by respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, and all other causes including the two aforementioned was collected by the Taiwan Department of Health (DOH). A time-series regression model was used to analyze the relative risk of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases due to air pollution in the summer and winter seasons. Risk of death from all causes and mortality from cardiovascular diseases during winter was significantly positively correlated with levels of SO(2), CO, and NO(2) for both groups of subjects and additionally with PM(10) for the elderly (> or =65 years old) group. There were significant positive correlations with respiratory diseases and levels of O(3) for both groups. However, the only significant positive correlation was with O(3) (RR=1.283) for the elderly group during summer. No other parameters showed significance for either group. Our findings contribute to the evidence of an association between SO(2), CO, NO(2), and PM(10) and mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, especially among elderly people during the winter season.

Seasonality of suicide deaths in Serbia, 1990-2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Penev Goran

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background: In the period from 1990 to 2012, there were 32,855 suicides registered in Serbia, i.e. an average of 1428 deaths per year (18.9 per 100.000 inhabitants. The suicides were the most frequent in the early 1990s, less frequent during the 2000s, and least frequent in the last three years of the observed period (2010-2012 - an average of 1237 suicides per year. Objective: The goal of this paper is to evaluate the seasonal variations of suicides in Serbia in the period of 1990-2012, their changes, as well as the accordance with findings from other countries. Method: In the paper are used "classical" statistical methods of evaluating cyclical variations (χ2-test, Edwards' test as well as some frequently used newer methods (e.g. the peak-low ratio. It also introduces a new indicator of the intensity of monthly variations in suicides (the magnitude of trimester variations of /12/ moving consecutive months index - the MtMV index. Seasonality of suicides is also observed by sex. Results: The results of the research of seasonality confirm that certain cyclical variations in mortality due to suicide are also present in Serbia. Observed by season, suicides are most frequent in spring and summer and less in winter. The cyclical nature was also clearly confirmed by month. Suicides are most frequent in "warm" months (April-August and far less frequent in "cold" months (December-February. By month, suicides are most frequent in May, while the maximal average number of suicides per day was calculated for June (21 % higher than the average for 1990-2012. December is singled out as the month with the lowest number as well as lowest daily average of suicides (25 % lower than the average. Conclusion: The cyclical nature of suicides is clearly notable during the entire observed period and no significant fluctuations or decrease in the intensity of the variation were observed. Regardless of the method of analysis, the resulting conclusions are identical

Emissions of BVOC from lodgepole pine in response to mountain pine beetle attack in high and low mortality forest stands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. R. Duhl

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this screening study, biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC emissions from intact branches of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta trees were measured from trees at two forested sites that have been impacted differently by the mountain pine beetle (MPB, with one having higher mortality and the other with lower mortality. Differences in the amounts and chemical diversity of BVOC between the two sites and from apparently healthy trees versus trees in different stages of MPB attack are presented, as well as (for one site observed seasonal variability in emissions. A brief comparison is made of geological and climatic characteristics as well as prior disturbances (both natural and man-made at each site. Trees sampled at the site experiencing high MPB-related tree mortality had lower chemodiversity in terms of monoterpene (MT emission profiles, while profiles were more diverse at the lower-mortality site. Also at the higher-mortality site, MPB-infested trees in various stages of decline had lower emissions of sesquiterpenes (SQTs compared to healthy trees, while at the site with lower mortality, MPB-survivors had significantly higher SQT emissions during part of the growing season when compared to both uninfested and newly infested trees. SQT profiles differed between the two sites and, like monoterpene and oxygenated VOC profiles, varied through the season. For the low-mortality site in which repeated measurements were made over the course of the early summer–late fall, higher chemical diversity was observed in early- compared to late-season measurements for all compound classes investigated (MT, oxygenated VOC, and SQT, with the amount of change appearing to correlate to the MPB status of the trees studied. Emissions of 2-methyl-3-buten-2-ol (MBO had a distinct seasonal signal but were not much different between healthy or infested trees, except in trees with dead needles, from which emissions of this compound were negligible, and in late-season

Egg mortality: predation and hydrography in the central Baltic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Voss, R.; Hinrichsen, H.-H.; Stepputtis, D.

2011-01-01

during the egg phase to be of critical importance. Two years of extensive field investigations in the Bornholm Basin, central Baltic Sea, were undertaken. In 2002, a typical stagnation situation characterized by low salinity and poor oxygen conditions was investigated, and in early 2003, a major inflow...... of North Sea water completely changed the hydrographic conditions by increasing salinity and oxygen content, thereby altering ecological conditions. The goal was to quantify egg mortality caused by predation and hydrography, and to compare these estimates with independent estimates based on cohort analysis....... Results indicated high intra-annual variability in egg mortality. Cod and sprat egg mortality responded differently to the major Baltic inflow: mortality related to hydrographic conditions increased for sprat and decreased for cod. On the other hand, predation mortality during peak spawning decreased...

Estimates of Avian Mortality Attributed to Vehicle Collisions in Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christine A. Bishop

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Although mortality of birds from collisions with vehicles is estimated to be in the millions in the USA, Europe, and the UK, to date, no estimates exist for Canada. To address this, we calculated an estimate of annual avian mortality attributed to vehicular collisions during the breeding and fledging season, in Canadian ecozones, by applying North American literature values for avian mortality to Canadian road networks. Because owls are particularly susceptible to collisions with vehicles, we also estimated the number of roadkilled Barn owls (Tyto alba in its last remaining range within Canada. (This species is on the IUCN red list and is also listed federally as threatened; Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada 2010, International Union for the Conservation of Nature 2012. Through seven Canadian studies in existence, 80 species and 2,834 specimens have been found dead on roads representing species from 14 orders of birds. On Canadian 1 and 2-lane paved roads outside of major urban centers, the unadjusted number of bird mortalities/yr during an estimated 4-mo (122-d breeding and fledging season for most birds in Canada was 4,650,137 on roads traversing through deciduous, coniferous, cropland, wetlands and nonagricultural landscapes with less than 10% treed area. On average, this represents 1,167 birds killed/100 km in Canada. Adjusted for scavenging, this estimate was 13,810,906 (3,462 dead birds/100 km. For barn owls, the unadjusted number of birds killed annually on 4-lane roads during the breeding and fledging season, within the species geographic range in southern British Columbia, was estimated as 244 owls and, when adjusted for scavenging and observer bias (3.6 factor, the total was 851 owls.

Seasonal variations of vivax and falciparum malaria: an observation at a tertiary care hospital

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamil, S.; Khan, M.N.

2012-01-01

Background: Malaria is a major public health problem in the malaria endemic zones of the world. Various factors influence the prevalence of malaria. This study was conducted to determine the variation in frequency of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in different seasons of the year in Khyber Teaching Hospital, Peshawar. Methods: A total of 411 patients were included in the study. All these febrile patients were reported to have trophozoites of either Plasmodium vivax or Plasmodium falciparum malaria on Giemsa stained thick and thin smears. The frequency of vivax and falciparum malaria was worked out and statistically analysed for different season of the year. The study was carried out from 2nd Jan 2004 till 31st December 2008. Results: Out of total 411 diagnosed malaria cases, total 134 (32.60%) presented in the autumn season (vivax=33.58%, and falciparum=66.42%), 37 (9%) in winter season (vivax=32.4%, and falciparum=67.6%), 76 (18.49%) in spring season (vivax=93.4% and falciparum 6.6%) and 164 (39.90%) in summer season (vivax=89.6, and falciparum=10.4%). The malaria showed a highly significant pattern in different seasons of the year (p=0.00) in a way that Plasmodium falciparum malaria reached its highest frequency in autumn and winter seasons while Plasmodium vivax malaria reached its peak frequency in spring and summer seasons. Conclusion: There was highly significant seasonal variation of vivax and falciparum malaria. There is arrival of Plasmodium falciparum in autumn which peaks in winter followed by arrival of Plasmodium vivax in spring till the end of summer. (author)

Neonatal mortality in New Zealand sea lions (Phocarctos hookeri) at Sandy Bay, Enderby Island, Auckland Islands from 1998 to 2005.

Science.gov (United States)

Castinel, A; Duignan, P J; Pomroy, W E; López-Villalobos, N; Gibbs, N J; Chilvers, B L; Wilkinson, I S

2007-07-01

As part of a health survey of New Zealand sea lions (Phocarctos hookeri) on Enderby Island, Auckland Islands (50 degrees 30'S, 166 degrees 17'E), neonatal mortality was closely monitored at the Sandy Bay colony for seven consecutive years. Throughout the breeding seasons 1998-99 to 2004-05, more than 400 postmortem examinations were performed on pups found dead at this site. The primary causes of death were categorized as trauma (35%), bacterial infections (24%), hookworm infection (13%), starvation (13%), and stillbirth (4%). For most pups, more than one diagnosis was recorded. Every year, two distinct peaks of trauma were observed: the first associated with mature bulls fighting within the harem and the second with subadult males abducting pups. In 2001-02 and 2002-03, epidemics caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae increased mortality by three times the mean in nonepidemic years (10.2%). The increased mortality was attributed directly to acute suppurative infection due to the bacterium and also to an increase in traumatic deaths of debilitated pups. Parasitic infection with the hookworm Uncinaria spp. was a common finding in all pups older than three weeks of age and debilitation by the parasite may have contributed to increased susceptibility to other pathogens such as Klebsiella sp. or Salmonella sp. This study provides valuable quantitative data on the natural causes of neonatal mortality in New Zealand sea lions that can be used in demographic models for management of threatened species.

Influence of seasonal variations in sea level on the salinity regime of a coastal groundwater-fed wetland.

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Cameron; Harrington, Glenn A

2015-01-01

Seasonal variations in sea level are often neglected in studies of coastal aquifers; however, they may have important controls on processes such as submarine groundwater discharge, sea water intrusion, and groundwater discharge to coastal springs and wetlands. We investigated seasonal variations in salinity in a groundwater-fed coastal wetland (the RAMSAR listed Piccaninnie Ponds in South Australia) and found that salinity peaked during winter, coincident with seasonal sea level peaks. Closer examination of salinity variations revealed a relationship between changes in sea level and changes in salinity, indicating that sea level-driven movement of the fresh water-sea water interface influences the salinity of discharging groundwater in the wetland. Moreover, the seasonal control of sea level on wetland salinity seems to override the influence of seasonal recharge. A two-dimensional variable density model helped validate this conceptual model of coastal groundwater discharge by showing that fluctuations in groundwater salinity in a coastal aquifer can be driven by a seasonal coastal boundary condition in spite of seasonal recharge/discharge dynamics. Because seasonal variations in sea level and coastal wetlands are ubiquitous throughout the world, these findings have important implications for monitoring and management of coastal groundwater-dependent ecosystems. © 2014, National Ground Water Association.

The decline in winter excess mortality in The Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kunst, A. E.; Looman, C. W.; Mackenbach, J. P.

1991-01-01

In most countries, numbers of deaths rise considerably during the winter season. This winter excess in mortality has, however, been declining during recent decades. The causes of this decline are hardly known. This paper attempts to derive a number of hypotheses on the basis of a detailed

Human mortality impacts of the 2015 summer heat spells in Slovakia

Science.gov (United States)

Výberči, Dalibor; Labudová, Lívia; Eštóková, Milada; Faško, Pavol; Trizna, Milan

2017-07-01

In 2015, Central Europe experienced an unusually warm summer season. For a great majority of climatic stations around Slovakia, it had been the warmest summer ever recorded over their entire instrumental observation period. In this study, we investigate the mortality effects of hot days' sequences during that particular summer on the Slovak population. In consideration of the range of available mortality data, the position of 2015 is analysed within the years 1996-2015. Over the given 20-year period, the summer heat spells of 2015 were by far the most severe from a meteorological point of view, and clearly the deadliest with the total of almost 540 excess deaths. In terms of impacts, an extraordinary 10-day August heat spell was especially remarkable. The massive lethal effects of heat would have likely been even more serious under normal circumstances, since the number of premature deaths appeared to be partially reduced due to a non-standard mortality pattern in the first quarter of the year. The heat spells of the extremely warm summer of 2015 in Slovakia are notable not just for their short-term response in mortality. It appears that in a combination with the preceding strong influenza season, they subsequently affected mortality conditions in the country in the following months up until the end of the year. The impacts described above were rather different for selected population subgroups (men and women, the elderly). Both separately and as a part of the annual mortality cycle, the 2015 summer heat spells may represent a particularly valuable source of information for public health.

Flu season and trehalose

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robbins RA

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Most of us who are practicing medicine know that we are in a very active flu season. This was brought home to me when last week trying to admit a patient to the hospital from the office. She was a bone marrow transplant patient who had severe diarrhea and dehydration probably secondary to C. difficile. Hospital admissions said the patient had to be sent to the Emergency Room because the hospital was full due to the flu epidemic. Nationwide there has been a dramatic increase in the number of hospitalizations due to influenza over the past week from 13.7 to 22.7 per 100,000 (1. Influenza A(H3N2 has been the most common form of influenza reported this season. These viruses are often linked to more severe illness, especially in children and people age 65 years and older. Fortunately, the CDC also says that the flu cases may be peaking. However, at ...

Large variations in diurnal and seasonal patterns of sap flux among Aleppo pine trees in semi-arid forest reflect tree-scale hydraulic adjustments

Science.gov (United States)

Preisler, Yakir; Tatarinov, Fyodor; Rohatyn, Shani; Rotenberg, Eyal; Grünzweig, José M.; Klein, Tamir; Yakir, Dan

2015-04-01

Adjustments and adaptations of trees to drought vary across different biomes, species and habitats, with important implications for tree mortality and forest dieback associated with global climate change. The aim of this study was to investigate possible links between the patterns of variations in water flux dynamics and drought resistance in Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) trees in a semi-arid stand (Yatir forest, Israel). We measured sap flow (SF) and variations in stem diameter, complemented with short-term campaigns of leaf-scale measurements of water vapour and CO2 gas exchange, branch water potential and hydraulic conductivity, as well as eddy flux measurements of evapotranspiration (ET) from a permanent flux tower at the site. SF rates were well synchronized with ET, reaching maximum rates during midday in all trees during the rainy season (Dec-Apr). However, during the dry season (May-Nov), the daily trend in the rates of SF greatly varied among trees, allowing classification into three tree classes: 1) trees with SF maximum rate constantly occurring in mid-day (12:00-13:00); 2)trees showing a shift to an early morning SF peak (04:00-06:00); and 3) trees shifting their daily SF peak to the evening (16:00-18:00). This classification did not change during the four years study period, between 2010 and 2014. Checking for correlation of tree parameters as DBH, tree height, crown size, and competition indices with rates of SF, indicated that timing of maximum SF in summer was mainly related to tree size (DBH), when large trees tended to have a later SF maximum. Dendrometer measurements indicated that large trees (high DBH) had maximum daily diameter in the morning during summer and winter, while small trees typically had maximum daily diameter during midday and afternoon in winter and summer, respectively. Leaf-scale transpiration (T) measurements showed typical morning peak in all trees, and another peak in the afternoon in large trees only. Different diurnal

Calf management practices and associations with herd-level morbidity and mortality on beef cow-calf operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, C F; Fick, L J; Pajor, E A; Barkema, H W; Jelinski, M D; Windeyer, M C

2016-03-01

The objective of this study was to investigate calf management practices on beef cow-calf operations and determine associations with herd-level morbidity and mortality of pre-weaned calves. A 40-question survey about management practices, morbidity and mortality was administered to cow-calf producers by distributing paper surveys and by circulating an online link through various media. A total of 267 producers completed the survey. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and multivariable linear regression models. Average herd-level treatment risk for pre-weaning calf diarrhea (PCD) and bovine respiratory disease (BRD) were 4.9% and 3.0%, respectively. Average herd-level mortality within the first 24 h of life (stillbirth), from 1 to 7 days and 7 days to weaning were 2.3%, 1.1%, and 1.4%, respectively. Operations that never intervened at parturition had 4.7% higher PCD than those that occasionally did. On operations using small elastrator bands for castration, PCD was 1.9% higher than those using other methods. For every increase of 100 cows in herd size, BRD decreased by 1.1%. The association between BRD and PCD varied by when calving season began. Operations that used off-farm, frozen colostrum had a 1.1% increase in stillbirths. Operations that verified a calf had suckled had 0.7% lower mortality from 1 to 7 days of age. Those that intervened when colostrum was abnormal or that used small elastrator bands for castration had 1.9% and 1.4% higher mortality during the 1st week of life, respectively, compared with other operations. Mortality from 7 days to weaning was lower by 0.7% when calving season started in April compared with January or February and was higher by 1.0% for each additional week of calving season. Operations that intervened with colostrum consumption for assisted calvings had lower mortality from 7 days to weaning by 0.8% compared with those that did not. For every 1.0% increase in BRD, mortality from 7 days to weaning increased by 1

Pediatric Exercise Testing: Value and Implications of Peak Oxygen Uptake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paolo T. Pianosi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Peak oxygen uptake (peak V ˙ O 2 measured by clinical exercise testing is the benchmark for aerobic fitness. Aerobic fitness, estimated from maximal treadmill exercise, is a predictor of mortality in adults. Peak V ˙ O 2 was shown to predict longevity in patients aged 7–35 years with cystic fibrosis over 25 years ago. A surge of exercise studies in young adults with congenital heart disease over the past decade has revealed significant prognostic information. Three years ago, the first clinical trial in children with pulmonary arterial hypertension used peak V ˙ O 2 as an endpoint that likewise delivered clinically relevant data. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing provides clinicians with biomarkers and clinical outcomes, and researchers with novel insights into fundamental biological mechanisms reflecting an integrated physiological response hidden at rest. Momentum from these pioneering observations in multiple disease states should impel clinicians to employ similar methods in other patient populations; e.g., sickle cell disease. Advances in pediatric exercise science will elucidate new pathways that may identify novel biomarkers. Our initial aim of this essay is to highlight the clinical relevance of exercise testing to determine peak V ˙ O 2 , and thereby convince clinicians of its merit, stimulating future clinical investigators to broaden the application of exercise testing in pediatrics.

Drowning is an apparent and unexpected recurrent cause of mass mortality of Common starlings (Sturnus vulgaris)

Science.gov (United States)

Lawson, Becki; Duff, J. Paul; Beckmann, Katie M.; Chantrey, Julian; Peck, Kirsi M.; Irvine, Richard M.; Robinson, Robert A.; Cunningham, Andrew A.

2015-01-01

Drowning is infrequently reported as a cause of death of wild birds and such incidents typically involve individual, rather than multiple, birds. Over a 21-year period (1993 to 2013 inclusive), we investigated 12 incidents of mortality of multiple (2 − 80+) Common starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) in Great Britain that appeared to be due to drowning. More than ten birds were affected in ten of these reported incidents. These incidents always occurred during the spring and early summer months and usually involved juvenile birds. In all cases, circumstantial evidence and post-mortem examinations indicated drowning to be the most likely cause of death with no underlying disease found. A behavioural explanation seems likely, possibly related to the gregarious nature of this species combined with juvenile inexperience in identifying water hazards. A review of data from the ringed bird recovery scheme across Great Britain (1909–2013 inclusive) of both starlings and Common blackbirds (Turdus merula), also a common garden visitor, identified additional suspected drowning incidents, which were significantly more common in the former species, supporting a species predisposition to drowning. For each species there was a marked seasonal peak from April to August. Drowning should be included as a differential diagnosis when investigating incidents of multiple starling mortality, especially of juveniles. PMID:26601771

Seasonal succession in zooplankton feeding traits reveals trophic trait coupling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kenitz, Kasia; Visser, Andre; Mariani, Patrizio

2017-01-01

non-motile cells flourishing in spring and motile community dominating during summer. The zooplankton community is dominated by active feeding-current feeders with peak biomass in the late spring declining during summer. The model reveals how zooplankton grazing reinforces protist plankton seasonal...

Pre-"peak water" time in the southwest Yukon: when cryospheric changes trigger hydrological regime shifts

Science.gov (United States)

Baraer, M.; Chesnokova, A.; Huh, K. I.; Laperriere-Robillard, T.

2017-12-01

Saint-Elias Mountains host numerous cryospheric systems such as glaciers, seasonal and perennial snow cover, permafrost, aufeis, and different forms of buried ice. Those systems are very sensitive to climate changes and exhibit ongoing reduction in extent and/or changes in formation/ablation times. Because they highly influence the hydrological regimes of rivers, cryospheric changes raise concerns about consequences for regional water resources and ecosystems. The present study combines historical data analysis and hydrological modeling in order to estimate how cryospheric changes impact hydrological regimes at eight watersheds of different glacier cover (0- 30%) in the southwest Yukon. Methods combine traditional hydrograph analysis techniques and more advance techniques such as Fast Fourier Transform filters used to isolate significant trends in discharge properties from noise or climatic oscillations. Measured trends in discharge variables are connected to cryospheric changes by using a water balance / peak water model (Baraer et al., 2012), here adapted to the main cryospheric systems that characterize the southwest Yukon.Results show three distinct hydrological regimes for (1) non glacierized, (2) glacierized, and (3) major lakes hosting catchments. The studied glacierized catchments have not passed the "peak water" yet and still exhibit increases in yearly and late summer discharges and a decrease in runoff variability. All watersheds show an increase in winter discharge and a snowmelt-driven shift of yearly peak discharge toward earlier in the season. The study suggests that, in a couple of decades, water resources and dependent ecosystems will face the combined effects of (A) a shift in the contribution trend from declining perennial cryospheric systems and (B) continuing alteration of the contribution from the seasonal cryospheric systems.

Mortality after acute trauma: Progressive decreasing rather than a trimodal distribution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ionut Negoi

2015-08-01

Conclusions: The trimodal time distribution of mortality remains a milestone in trauma education and research. Nevertheless, it must be questioned in the modern and very efficient trauma systems, but still very actual for developing trauma care systems. In conclusion, the pattern of mortality due to major trauma seems decreasing continuously with time rather than presenting high peaks of frequency at some moments.

Seasonal and age-related changes in the micro-anatomy of the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Peak prostate mass, alveoli diameter and secretory cell height indi- cate that ... Recently. attention was accorded to the seasonal reproductive cycle of male fur seals ... The sam- pling procedure was selective to include all age groups. Body.

Examining secular trend  and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Dethlefsen, Claus; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders

series regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. Data  In the period January 1980 to 1999, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the county of Northern Jutland, Denmark. Records were......Aims  Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation and overdispersion. Methods  The model resembles an ordinary time...... updated daily. Results  The model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicate a good model fit. The analysis with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with influenza epidemics. On average the peak-to-trough ratio is estimated...

Seasonal variability of thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in raw milk sold by automatic vending machines in Lombardy Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barbara Bertasi

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In temperate climates, a seasonal trend was observed in the incidence of human campylobacteriosis cases, with peaks reported in spring and autumn in some countries, or in summer in others; a similar trend was observed in Campylobacter spp. dairy cattle faecal shedding, suggesting that cattle may play a role in the seasonal peak of human infection. The objectives of this study were to assess if a seasonal trend in thermophilic Campylobacter spp. contamination of raw milk exists and to evaluate a possible relation between this and the increase of human campylobacteriosis incidence in summer months. The results showed a mean prevalence of 1.6% of milk samples positive for thermophilic Campylobacter spp. with a wide range (0.0-3.1% in different months during the three years considered. The statistical analysis showed a significant difference (PCampylobacter spp. between warmer and cooler months (2.3 vs 0.6%. The evidence of a seasonal trend in thermophilic Campylobacter spp. contamination of raw milk sold for direct consumption, with an increase of the prevalence in warmer months, may represent one of the possible links between seasonal trend in cattle faecal shedding and seasonal trend in human campylobacteriosis.

Seasonal variation in internet keyword searches: a proxy assessment of sex mating behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Markey, Patrick M; Markey, Charlotte N

2013-05-01

The current study investigated seasonal variation in internet searches regarding sex and mating behaviors. Harmonic analyses were used to examine the seasonal trends of Google keyword searches during the past 5 years for topics related to pornography, prostitution, and mate-seeking. Results indicated a consistent 6-month harmonic cycle with the peaks of keyword searches related to sex and mating behaviors occurring most frequently during winter and early summer. Such results compliment past research that has found similar seasonal trends of births, sexually transmitted infections, condom sales, and abortions.

Spatial Patterns in Biogeochemical Processes During Peak Growing Season in Oiled and Unoiled Louisiana Salt Marshes: A Multi-Year Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Chelsky, A.; Marton, J. M.; Bernhard, A. E.; Giblin, A. E.; Setta, S. P.; Hill, T. D.; Roberts, B. J.

2016-02-01

Louisiana salt marshes are important sites for carbon and nitrogen cycling because they can mitigate fluxes of nutrients and carbon to the Gulf of Mexico where a large hypoxic zone develops annually. The aim of this study was to investigate spatial and temporal patterns of biogeochemical processes in Louisiana coastal wetlands during peak growing season, and to investigate whether the Deepwater Horizon oil spill resulted in persistent changes to these rates. We measured nitrification potential and sediment characteristics at two pairs of oiled/unoiled marshes in three regions across the Louisiana coast (Terrebonne and east and west Barataria Bay) in July from 2012 to 2015, with plots along a gradient from the salt marsh edge to the interior. Rates of nitrification potential across the coast (overall mean of 901 ± 115 nmol gdw-1 d-1 from 2012-2014) were high compared to other published rates for salt marshes but displayed high variability at the plot level (4 orders of magnitude). Within each region interannual means varied by factors of 2-5. Nitrification potential did not differ with oiling history, but did display consistent spatial patterns within each region that corresponded to changes in relative elevation and inundation, which influence patterns of soil properties and microbial communities. In 2015, we also measured greenhouse gas (CO2, N2O and CH4) production and denitrification enzyme activity rates in addition to nitrification potential across the region to investigate spatial relationships between these processes.

Basin-Wide Amazon Forest Tree Mortality From a Large 2005 Storm

Science.gov (United States)

Negron Juarez, R. I.; Chambers, J. Q.; Guimaraes, G.; Zeng, H.; Raupp, C.; Marra, D. M.; Ribeiro, G.; Saatchi, S. S.; Higuchi, N.

2010-12-01

Blowdowns are a recurrent characteristic of Amazon forests and are produced, among others, by squall lines. Squall lines are aligned clusters (typical length of 1000 km, width of 200 km) of deep convective cells that produce heavy rainfall during the dry season and significant rainfall during the wet season. These squall lines (accompanied by intense downbursts from convective cells) have been associated with large blowdowns characterized by uprooted, snapped trees, and trees being dragged down by other falling trees. Most squall lines in Amazonia form along the northeastern coast of South America as sea breeze-induced instability lines and propagate inside the continent. They occur frequently (~4 times per month), and can reach the central and even extreme western parts of Amazonia. Squall lines can also be generated inside the Amazon and propagate toward the equator. In January 2005 a squall line propagated from south to north across the entire Amazon basin producing widespread forest tree mortality and contributed to the elevated mortality observed that year. Over the Manaus region (3.4 x104 km2), disturbed forest patches generated by the squall produced a mortality of 0.3-0.5 million trees, equivalent to 30% of the observed annual deforestation reported in 2005 over the same area. The elevated mortality observed in the Central Amazon in 2005 is unlikely to be related to the 2005 Amazon drought since drought did not affect Central or Eastern Amazonia. Assuming a similar rate of forest mortality across the basin, the squall line could have potentially produced tree mortality estimated at 542 ± 121 million trees, equivalent to 23% of the mean annual biomass accumulation estimated for these forests. Our results highlight the vulnerability of Amazon trees to wind-driven mortality associated with convective storms. This vulnerability is likely to increase in a warming climate with models projecting an increase in storm intensity.

Associations between ambient air pollution and daily mortality among persons with congestive heart failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldberg, Mark S.; Burnett, Richard T.; Valois, M.-F.; Flegel, Kenneth; Bailar III, John C.; Brook, Jeffrey; Vincent Renaud; Radon, Katja

2003-01-01

We conducted a mortality time series study to investigate the association between daily mortality for congestive heart failure (CHF), and dail concentrations of particles and gaseous pollutants in the ambient air o Montreal, Quebec, during the period 1984-1993. In addition, using data fro the universal Quebec Health Insurance Plan, we identified individuals ≥6 years of age who, one year before death, had a diagnosis of CHF. Fixed-sit air pollution monitors in Montreal provided daily mean levels of pollutants We regressed the logarithm of daily counts of mortality on the daily mean levels of each pollutant, after accounting for seasonal and subseasonal fluctuations in the mortality time series, non-Poisson dispersion, weather variables, and other gaseous and particle pollutants. Using cause of deat information, we did not find any associations between daily mortality for CH and any air pollutants. The analyses of CHF defined from the medical record showed positive associations with coefficient of haze, the extinction coefficient, SO 2 , and NO 2 . For example, the mean percent increase in dail mortality for an increase in the coefficient of haze across the interquartile range was 4.32% (95% CI: 0.95-7.80%) and for NO 2 it was 4.08% (95% CI 0.59-7.68%). These effects were generally higher in the warm season

Sensitivities of dry season runoff to precipitation and temperature in southern Sierra Nevada streams

Science.gov (United States)

Safeeq, M.; Hunsaker, C. T.; Bales, R. C.

2016-12-01

In a mediterranean climate, dry season runoff sustains water supply and supports aquatic habitat and other ecosystems. Precipitation and temperature directly, by regulating recharge and evapotranspiration (ET), and indirectly, by regulating amount and timing of snowmelt, control the dry season runoff in the Sierra Nevada. Here, we explored relative impacts of precipitation and temperature variability on dry season runoff using path analysis. Specific objectives include: (i) to quantify the direct and indirect impacts of precipitation and temperature on 7-day average minimum flow (Qmin) and (ii) to explore the role of preceding year Qmin on fall season runoff (QF). We used daily runoff, air temperature, precipitation, and snow water equivalent (SWE) over 2004-2015 for the ten catchments in the Kings River Experimental Watersheds. For path analysis model of Qmin, we defined annual precipitation and temperature as exogenous variables and peak SWE, day of snow disappearance, and Qmin as endogenous variables. For QF, we defined current year fall precipitation and preceding year Qmin as exogenous variables and current year QF as an endogenous variable. Path analysis results for Qmin show precipitation as a dominant driver when compared to temperature, peak SWE, and day of snow disappearance. However, in half of the catchments that are mostly located at higher elevations the impact of temperature on Qmin was either comparable or exceeded that of precipitation. This relatively high sensitivity of Qmin to air temperature in high elevation catchments is consistent with the earlier findings of increased ET in proportion to warming. The direct effects of peak SWE and day of snow disappearance on Qmin were limited, and indirect effects of temperature and precipitation via peak SWE and day of snow disappearance were not significant. The preceding year Qmin and fall precipitation showed comparable impacts on QF, indicating that the storage in the preceding year modulates current

Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study

Science.gov (United States)

Simonsen, Lone; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Lustig, Roger; Taylor, Robert J.; Fleming, Douglas M.; Kroneman, Madelon; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Mounts, Anthony W.; Paget, W. John

2013-01-01

Background Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. Methods and Findings We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005–2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%–85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000–249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:24302890

Diel and seasonal variation in food habits of Atlantic salmon parr in a small stream

Science.gov (United States)

Grader, M.; Letcher, B.H.

2006-01-01

The diel and seasonal food habits of young-of-year (YOY) and post-young-of-year (PYOY) Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) parr were assayed over the course of 11 months in the West Brook, Massachusetts USA. Gut fullness of YOY salmon did not vary significantly among months. PYOY salmon exhibited significant seasonal differences in gut fullness, with peak fullness occurring in the spring and late fall. Significant diel differences in PYOY gut fullness occurred in June and April, with peak fullness always occurring at dawn. Prey composition varied substantially among months. Dominant prey items of PYOY salmon were baetid mayflies in June, July, and August, limnephilid caddisflies in October and November, and ephemerellid mayflies in February and April. Few differences in prey composition between PYOY and YOY salmon were observed. Fish growth was unrelated to prey availability, but gut fullness explained up to 97% of growth variation across seasons. Results suggest that spring and fall are critical periods of feeding for PYOY salmon and that diel feeding intensity shifts seasonally.

Monitoring start of season in Alaska with GLOBE, AVHRR, and MODIS data

Science.gov (United States)

Robin, Jessica; Dubayah, Ralph; Sparrow, Elena; Levine, Elissa

2008-03-01

This work evaluates whether continuity between Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is achievable for monitoring phenological changes in Alaska. This work also evaluates whether NDVI can detect changes in start of the growing season (SOS) in this region. Six quadratic regression models with NDVI as a function of accumulated growing degree days (AGDD) were developed from 2001 through 2004 AVHRR and MODIS NDVI data sets for urban, mixed, and forested land covers. Model parameters determined NDVI values for start of the observational period as well as peak and length of the growing season. NDVI values for start of the growing season were determined from the model equations and field observations of SOS made by GLOBE students and researchers at University of Alaska Fairbanks. AGDD was computed from daily air temperature. AVHRR and MODIS models were significantly different from one another with differences in the start of the observational season as well as start, peak, and length of the growing season. Furthermore, AGDD for SOS was significantly lower during the 1990s than the 1980s. NDVI values at SOS did not detect this change. There are limitations with using NDVI to monitor phenological changes in these regions because of snow, the large extent of conifers, and clouds, which restrict the composite period. In addition, differing processing and spectral characteristics restrict continuity between AVHRR and MODIS NDVI data sets.

Hydroclimatology of Dual Peak Cholera Incidence in Bengal Region: Inferences from a Spatial Explicit Model

Science.gov (United States)

Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2010-12-01

The seasonality of cholera and its relation with environmental drivers are receiving increasing interest and research efforts, yet they remain unsatisfactorily understood. A striking example is the observed annual cycle of cholera incidence in the Bengal region which exhibits two peaks despite the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (air and sea surface temperature, zooplankton density, river discharge) follow a synchronous single-peak annual pattern. A first outbreak, mainly affecting the coastal regions, occurs in spring and it is followed, after a period of low incidence during summer, by a second, usually larger, peak in autumn also involving regions situated farther inland. A hydroclimatological explanation for this unique seasonal cycle has been recently proposed: the low river spring flows favor the intrusion of brackish water (the natural environment of the causative agent of the disease) which, in turn, triggers the first outbreak. The summer rising river discharges have a temporary dilution effect and prompt the repulsion of contaminated water which lowers the disease incidence. However, the monsoon flooding, together with the induced crowding of the population and the failure of the sanitation systems, can possibly facilitate the spatial transmission of the disease and promote the autumn outbreak. We test this hypothesis using a mechanistic, spatially explicit model of cholera epidemic. The framework directly accounts for the role of the river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for the annual fluctuation of the river flow. The model is forced with the actual environmental drivers of the region, namely river flow and temperature. Our results show that these two drivers, both having a single peak in the summer, can generate a double peak cholera incidence pattern. Besides temporal patterns, the model is also able to qualitatively reproduce spatial patterns characterized

Soil Respiration Declines Following Beetle - Induced Forest Mortality in a Lodgepole Pine Forest

Science.gov (United States)

Borkhuu, B.; Peckham, S. D.; Norton, U.; Ewers, B. E.; Pendall, E.

2014-12-01

Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forests in northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming have been undergoing a major mortality event owing to mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) infestation since 2007. We studied biotic and abiotic drivers of growing season soil respiration in four mature stands experiencing different levels of mortality between 2008 and 2012 in the Medicine Bow Mountains, southeastern Wyoming, USA. For five years, beetle infestation significantly altered forest structure. Stand mortality was 30% and more than 80% in stands with the lowest and highest mortality, respectively. Understory vegetation cover increased by 50% for five years following beetle infestation. Needlefall was increased by more than 50% during first two years of beetle infestation compared to the pre-disturbance period. We did not observe an immediate increase in soil respiration following beetle infestation as suggested by some researchers. Soil respiration rates in midsummer ranged from 1.4 ± 0.1 μmol m-2 s-1 in stands with highest mortality to 3.1 ± 0.2 μmol m-2s-1 in uninfested stand. Live tree basal area was the dominant factor controlling soil respiration, explaining more than 60% of the interannual and spatial variations in response to the disturbance. In addition, soil respiration was significantly correlated with fine root biomass, which explained 55% of variations, providing strong evidence that autotrophic respiration dominated the forest soil respiration flux. Furthermore, the seasonality of soil respiration was controlled mainly by mean monthly precipitation and mid-day photosynthetically active radiation. Each factor predicted from 30% to 50% of seasonal soil respiration variability with the highest correlation coefficients in stand with the lowest mortality. Our results clearly indicate that the reduction of photosynthesis in trees over the infestation period significantly reduced soil respiration. The remaining activity in dead stands may

Variation in mortality of ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes in relation to high temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Youn-Hee; Kim, Ho; Hong, Yun-Chul

2013-01-01

Outdoor temperature has been reported to have a significant influence on the seasonal variations of stroke mortality, but few studies have investigated the effect of high temperature on the mortality of ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. The main study goal was to examine the effect of temperature, particularly high temperature, on ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. We investigated the association between outdoor temperature and stroke mortality in four metropolitan cities in Korea during 1992-2007. We used time series analysis of the age-adjusted mortality rate for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke deaths by using generalized additive and generalized linear models, and estimated the percentage change of mortality rate associated with a 1°C increase of mean temperature. The temperature-responses for the hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke mortality differed, particularly in the range of high temperature. The estimated percentage change of ischemic stroke mortality above a threshold temperature was 5.4 % (95 % CI, 3.9-6.9 %) in Seoul, 4.1 % (95 % CI, 1.6-6.6 %) in Incheon, 2.3 % (-0.2 to 5.0 %) in Daegu and 3.6 % (0.7-6.6 %) in Busan, after controlling for daily mean humidity, mean air pressure, day of the week, season, and year. Additional adjustment of air pollution concentrations in the model did not change the effects. Hemorrhagic stroke mortality risk significantly decreased with increasing temperature without a threshold in the four cities after adjusting for confounders. These findings suggest that the mortality of hemorrhagic and ischemic strokes show different patterns in relation to outdoor temperature. High temperature was harmful for ischemic stroke but not for hemorrhagic stroke. The risk of high temperature to ischemic stroke did not differ by age or gender.

Acute effects of particulate matter and black carbon from seasonal fires on peak expiratory flow of schoolchildren in the Brazilian Amazon.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ludmilla da Silva Viana Jacobson

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Panel studies have shown adverse effects of air pollution from biomass burning on children's health. This study estimated the effect of current levels of outdoor air pollution in the Amazonian dry season on peak expiratory flow (PEF. METHODS: A panel study with 234 schoolchildren from 6 to 15 years old living in the municipality of Tangará da Serra, Brazil was conducted. PEF was measured daily in the dry season in 2008. Mixed-effects models and unified modelling repeated for every child were applied. Time trends, temperature, humidity, and subject characteristics were regarded. Inhalable particulate matter (PM10, fine particulate matter (PM2.5, and black carbon (BC effects were evaluated based on 24-hour exposure lagged by 1 to 5 days and the averages of 2 or 3 days. Polynomial distributed lag models (PDLM were also applied. RESULTS: The analyses revealed reductions in PEF for PM10 and PM2.5 increases of 10 µg/m(3 and 1 µg/m(3 for BC. For PM10, the reductions varied from 0.15 (confidence interval (CI95%: -0.29; -0.01 to 0.25 l/min (CI95%: -0.40; -0.10. For PM2.5, they ranged from 0.46 (CI95%: -0.86 to -0.06 to 0.54 l/min (CI95%:-0.95; -0.14. As for BC, the reduction was approximately 1.40 l/min. In relation to PDLM, adverse effects were noticed in models based on the exposure on the current day through the previous 3 days (PDLM 0-3 and on the current day through the previous 5 days (PDLM 0-5, specially for PM10. For all children, for PDLM 0-5 the global effect was important for PM10, with PEF reduction of 0.31 l/min (CI95%: -0.56; -0.05. Also, reductions in lags 3 and 4 were observed. These associations were stronger for children between 6 and 8 years old. CONCLUSION: Reductions in PEF were associated with air pollution, mainly for lagged exposures of 3 to 5 days and for younger children.

Seasonal variation in thrombogenicity of blood: a word of caution.

Science.gov (United States)

Narang, Sumit; Banerjee, Amit; Satsangi, Deepak K; Geelani, Mohammad A

2009-01-01

Thrombogenicity of blood is known to have seasonal variations. The clinical implications of seasonal variations in the anticoagulation profile of patients with mechanical valves was assessed. Data of patients implanted with a mechanical heart valve for more than 3 months were collected at follow-up or on presentation to the emergency department. The mean time from the previous follow-up examination was 3.6 +/- 0.3 months. The number of patients with an international normalized ratio >3.5 and the incidence of hemorrhagic events peaked in hottest part of the year (June-July), with 128 cases of prolonged clotting and 43 hemorrhagic events in this period. The number of patients with rapid clotting and the incidence of embolic events peaked in coldest part of the year (December-January), with 120 cases of international normalized ratio <1.5 and 37 embolic events in this period. There was a significant correlation between temperature and thrombogenicity in patients with prosthetic heart valves on long-term anticoagulation.

STORMVEX: The Storm Peak Lab Cloud Property Validation Experiment Science and Operations Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mace, J; Matrosov, S; Shupe, M; Lawson, P; Hallar, G; McCubbin, I; Marchand, R; Orr, B; Coulter, R; Sedlacek, A; Avallone, L; Long, C

2010-09-29

During the Storm Peak Lab Cloud Property Validation Experiment (STORMVEX), a substantial correlative data set of remote sensing observations and direct in situ measurements from fixed and airborne platforms will be created in a winter season, mountainous environment. This will be accomplished by combining mountaintop observations at Storm Peak Laboratory and the airborne National Science Foundation-supported Colorado Airborne Multi-Phase Cloud Study campaign with collocated measurements from the second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2). We describe in this document the operational plans and motivating science for this experiment, which includes deployment of AMF2 to Steamboat Springs, Colorado. The intensive STORMVEX field phase will begin nominally on 1 November 2010 and extend to approximately early April 2011.

Seasonal variability of physico–chemical characteristics of the ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Salinity varied spatially and temporally and seasonally during ebb and flood tide conditions. ... The tidal varia- tion at the mouth is from 6.1 m at springs to 0.22 m at neaps. The fresh water discharge ranges from a peak value of 4250m3 s−1 to almost zero in the ...... National Conference on Harbour and Ocean Engineer-.

Effect modification of the association between temperature variability and daily cardiovascular mortality by air pollutants in three Chinese cities.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Kai; Li, Runkui; Wang, Zongshuang; Zhang, Ruiming; Xu, Qun

2017-11-01

There is limited evidence showing the mortality effects of temperature variability (TV) on cardiovascular diseases. The joint effects between TV and air pollutants are also less well-established. This study aims to assess the effect modification of TV-cardiovascular mortality by air pollutants in three Chinese cities (Beijing, Nanjing and Chengdu). Data of daily mortality, air pollutants and meteorological factors from 2008 to 2011 was collected from each city. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of daily maximum and minimum temperatures over exposure days. The city-specific effect estimates of TV on cardiovascular mortality were calculated using a quasi-Poisson regression model, adjusting for potential confounders (e.g., seasonality and temperature). An interaction term of TV and a three-level air pollutants stratum indicator was included in the models. Effect modifications by air pollutants were assessed by comparing the estimates of TV's effect between pollutant stratums and calculating the corresponding 95% confidential interval of the differences. Multivariate meta-analysis was conducted to obtain the pooled estimates. The data showed that TV was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular mortality, especially for longer TV exposure days (0-8 days, TV08). This association was still observed after adjusting for air pollutants on current day or the previous two days. Stronger estimates were observed in females, but no significant difference between males and females was detected, indicating the absence of evidence of effect modification by gender. Estimates of TV-cardiovascular mortality varied across two season periods (warm and cool season) and age groups, but the evidence of effect modification by age and seasons was absent. Regarding the effect modification of TV-cardiovascular mortality association by air pollutants, a significant effect modification was identified for PM 10, but not for NO 2 and SO 2 in the whole population for all TV

[A peak recognition algorithm designed for chromatographic peaks of transformer oil].

Science.gov (United States)

Ou, Linjun; Cao, Jian

2014-09-01

In the field of the chromatographic peak identification of the transformer oil, the traditional first-order derivative requires slope threshold to achieve peak identification. In terms of its shortcomings of low automation and easy distortion, the first-order derivative method was improved by applying the moving average iterative method and the normalized analysis techniques to identify the peaks. Accurate identification of the chromatographic peaks was realized through using multiple iterations of the moving average of signal curves and square wave curves to determine the optimal value of the normalized peak identification parameters, combined with the absolute peak retention times and peak window. The experimental results show that this algorithm can accurately identify the peaks and is not sensitive to the noise, the chromatographic peak width or the peak shape changes. It has strong adaptability to meet the on-site requirements of online monitoring devices of dissolved gases in transformer oil.

Determination of seasonal, diurnal, and height resolved average number concentration in a pollution impacted rural continental location

Science.gov (United States)

Bullard, Robert L.; Stanier, Charles O.; Ogren, John A.; Sheridan, Patrick J.

2013-05-01

The impact of aerosols on Earth's radiation balance and the associated climate forcing effects of aerosols represent significant uncertainties in assessment reports. The main source of ultrafine aerosols in the atmosphere is the nucleation and subsequent growth of gas phase aerosol precursors into liquid or solid phase particles. Long term records of aerosol number, nucleation event frequency, and vertical profiles of number concentration are rare. The data record from multiagency monitoring assets at Bondville, IL can contribute important information on long term and vertically resolved patterns. Although particle number size distribution data are only occasionally available at Bondville, highly time-resolved particle number concentration data have been measured for nearly twenty years by the NOAA ESRL Global Monitoring Division. Furthermore, vertically-resolved aerosol counts and other aerosol physical parameters are available from more than 300 flights of the NOAA Airborne Aerosol Observatory (AAO). These data sources are used to better understand the seasonal, diurnal, and vertical variation and trends in atmospheric aerosols. The highest peaks in condensation nuclei greater than 14 nm occur during the spring months (May, April) with slightly lower peaks during the fall months (September, October). The diurnal pattern of aerosol number has a midday peak and the timing of the peak has seasonal patterns (earlier during warm months and later during colder months). The seasonal and diurnal patterns of high particle number peaks correspond to seasons and times of day associated with low aerosol mass and surface area. Average vertical profiles show a nearly monotonic decrease with altitude in all months, and with peak magnitudes occurring in the spring and fall. Individual flight tracks show evidence of plumes (i.e., enhanced aerosol number is limited to a small altitude range, is not homogeneous horizontally, or both) as well as periods with enhanced particle number

Female breast cancer incidence and mortality in China, 2013

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Zuo, Ting‐Ting; Zheng, Rong‐Shou; Zeng, Hong‐Mei; Zhang, Si‐Wei

2017-01-01

Background Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women. Population‐based cancer registration data from the National Central Cancer Registry were used to analyze and evaluate the incidence and mortality rates in China in 2013, providing scientific information for cancer prevention and control. Methods Pooled data were stratified by area (urban/rural), gender, and age group. National new cases and deaths were estimated using age‐specific rates and the corresponding population in 2013. The Chinese population in 2000 and Segi's world population were used to calculate age‐standardized rates. Results The estimated number of new breast cancer cases was about 278 800 in China in 2013. The crude incidence, age‐standardized rate of incidence by Chinese standard population, and age‐standardized rate of incidence by world standard population were 42.02/100 000, 30.41/100 000, and 28.42/100 000, respectively. The estimated number of breast cancer deaths was about 64 600 in China in 2013. The crude mortality, age‐standardized rate of mortality by Chinese standard population, and age‐standardized rate of mortality by world standard population were 9.74/100 000, 6.54/100 000, and 6.34/100 000, respectively. Both incidence and mortality were higher in urban than in rural areas. Age‐specific breast cancer incidence significantly increased with age, particularly after age 20, and peaked at 50–55 years, while age‐specific mortality increased rapidly after 25 years, peaking at 85+ years. Conclusions Breast cancer is the most common cancer in Chinese women, especially women in urban areas. Comprehensive measures are needed to reduce the heavy burden of breast cancer. PMID:28296260

Impact of covariate models on the assessment of the air pollution-mortality association in a single- and multipollutant context.

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Sacks, Jason D; Ito, Kazuhiko; Wilson, William E; Neas, Lucas M

2012-10-01

With the advent of multicity studies, uniform statistical approaches have been developed to examine air pollution-mortality associations across cities. To assess the sensitivity of the air pollution-mortality association to different model specifications in a single and multipollutant context, the authors applied various regression models developed in previous multicity time-series studies of air pollution and mortality to data from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (May 1992-September 1995). Single-pollutant analyses used daily cardiovascular mortality, fine particulate matter (particles with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µm; PM(2.5)), speciated PM(2.5), and gaseous pollutant data, while multipollutant analyses used source factors identified through principal component analysis. In single-pollutant analyses, risk estimates were relatively consistent across models for most PM(2.5) components and gaseous pollutants. However, risk estimates were inconsistent for ozone in all-year and warm-season analyses. Principal component analysis yielded factors with species associated with traffic, crustal material, residual oil, and coal. Risk estimates for these factors exhibited less sensitivity to alternative regression models compared with single-pollutant models. Factors associated with traffic and crustal material showed consistently positive associations in the warm season, while the coal combustion factor showed consistently positive associations in the cold season. Overall, mortality risk estimates examined using a source-oriented approach yielded more stable and precise risk estimates, compared with single-pollutant analyses.

Manatee mortality in Puerto Rico

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Mignucci-Giannoni, A. A.; Montoya-Ospina, R. A.; Jimenez-Marrero, N. M.; Rodriguez-Lopez, M.; Williams, E.H.; Bonde, R.K.

2000-01-01

The most pressing problem in the effective management of the West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus) in Puerto Rico is mortality due to human activities. We assessed 90 cases of manatee strandings in Puerto Rico based on historical data and a coordinated carcass salvage effort from 1990 through 1995. We determined patterns of mortality, including type of event, condition of carcasses, spatial and temporal distribution, gender, size/age class, and the cause of death. The spatial distribution of stranding events was not uniform, with the north, northeast, and south coasts having the highest numbers. Six clusters representing the highest incidence included the areas of Fajardo and Ceiba, Bahia de Jobos, Toa Baja, Guayanilla, Cabo Rojo, and Rio Grande to Luquillo. The number of reported cases has increased at an average rate of 9.6%/yr since 1990. The seasonality of stranding events showed a bimodal pattern, from February through April and in August and September. Most identified causes of death were due to human interaction, especially captures and watercraft collisions. Natural causes usually involved dependent calves. From 1990 through 1995, most deaths were attributed to watercraft collisions. A reduction in anthropogenic mortality of this endangered species can be accomplished only through education and a proactive management and conservation plan that includes law enforcement, mortality assessment, scientific research, rescue and rehabilitation, and inter- and intraagency cooperation.

Fifty consecutive pancreatectomies without mortality

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Enio Campos Amico

Full Text Available Objective: to report the group's experience with a series of patients undergoing pancreatic resection presenting null mortality rates. Methods: we prospectively studied 50 consecutive patients undergoing pancreatic resections for peri-ampullary or pancreatic diseases. Main local complications were defined according to international criteria. In-hospital mortality was defined as death occurring in the first 90 postoperative days. Results: patients' age ranged between 16 and 90 years (average: 53.3. We found anemia (Hb < 12g/dl and preoperative jaundice in 38% and 40% of cases, respectively. Most patients presented with peri-ampullary tumors (66%. The most common surgical procedure was the Kausch - Whipple operation (70%. Six patients (12% needed to undergo resection of a segment of the mesenteric-portal axis. The mean operative time was 445.1 minutes. Twenty two patients (44% showed no clinical complications and presented mean hospital stay of 10.3 days. The most frequent complications were pancreatic fistula (56%, delayed gastric emptying (17.1% and bleeding (16%. Conclusion : within the last three decades, pancreatic resection is still considered a challenge, especially outside large specialized centers. Nevertheless, even in our country (Brazil, teams seasoned in such procedure can reach low mortality rates.

Global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR project: a modeling study.

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Simonsen, Lone; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Lustig, Roger; Taylor, Robert J; Fleming, Douglas M; Kroneman, Madelon; Van Kerkhove, Maria D; Mounts, Anthony W; Paget, W John

2013-11-01

Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005-2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%-85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000-249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010-2012). We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons Europe. A collaborative network to collect and analyze mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Does the reproductive season account for more records of birds in a marked seasonal climate landscape in the state of São Paulo, Brazil?

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Vagner Cavarzere

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Investigators have reported that birds from temperate regions are more detectable during their breeding seasons, which should be used to adequately survey avifaunas. In the state of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, the rainiest months of the year are usually associated with a peak in the reproduction of birds. To test the hypothesis that birds are equally detectable throughout the year, I conducted transect counts of birds in a predominantly open Cerrado landscape in São Paulo during 2005 and 2006. There was no significant difference in the number of species or individuals between breeding (rainy and nonbreeding (dry seasons; 24% of the species with > 50 contacts was likely to be recorded more often in a particular season. Unlike temperate regions, where vocal behavior plays an important role in detections of birds during and after reproductive seasons, my results suggest that Cerrado birds may be evenly detected throughout the year.

Seasonality in twin birth rates, Denmark, 1936-84.

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Bonnelykke, B; Søgaard, J; Nielsen, J

1987-12-01

A study was made of seasonality in twin birth rate in Denmark between 1977 and 1984. We studied all twin births (N = 45,550) in all deliveries (N = 3,679,932) during that period. Statistical analysis using a simple harmonic sinusoidal model provided no evidence for seasonality. However, sequential polynomial analysis disclosed a significant fit to a fifth order polynomial curve with peaks in twin birth rates in May-June and December, along with troughs in February and September. A falling trend in twinning rate broke off in Denmark around 1970, and from 1970 to 1984 an increasing trend was found. The results are discussed in terms of possible environmental influences on twinning.

Seasonal variation in Internet searches for vitamin D.

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Moon, Rebecca J; Curtis, Elizabeth M; Davies, Justin H; Cooper, Cyrus; Harvey, Nicholas C

2017-12-01

Internet search rates for "vitamin D" were explored using Google Trends. Search rates increased from 2004 until 2010 and thereafter displayed a seasonal pattern peaking in late winter. This knowledge could help guide the timing of public health interventions aimed at managing vitamin D deficiency. The Internet is an important source of health information. Analysis of Internet search activity rates can provide information on disease epidemiology, health related behaviors and public interest. We explored Internet search rates for vitamin D to determine whether this reflects the increasing scientific interest in this topic. Google Trends is a publically available tool that provides data on Internet searches using Google. Search activity for the term "vitamin D" from 1st January 2004 until 31st October 2016 was obtained. Comparison was made to other bone and nutrition related terms. Worldwide, searches for "vitamin D" increased from 2004 until 2010 and thereafter a statistically significant (p Internet search activity, did increase from 2004 to 2010, likely reflecting the growing scientific interest, but now displays a seasonal pattern with peak interest during late winter. This information could be used to guide public health approaches to managing vitamin D deficiency.

Seasonal Variability of Thermophilic Campylobacter Spp. in Raw Milk Sold by Automatic Vending Machines in Lombardy Region.

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Bertasi, Barbara; Losio, Marina Nadia; Daminelli, Paolo; Finazzi, Guido; Serraino, Andrea; Piva, Silvia; Giacometti, Federica; Massella, Elisa; Ostanello, Fabio

2016-06-03

In temperate climates, a seasonal trend was observed in the incidence of human campylobacteriosis cases, with peaks reported in spring and autumn in some countries, or in summer in others; a similar trend was observed in Campylobacter spp. dairy cattle faecal shedding, suggesting that cattle may play a role in the seasonal peak of human infection. The objectives of this study were to assess if a seasonal trend in thermophilic Campylobacter spp. contamination of raw milk exists and to evaluate a possible relation between this and the increase of human campylobacteriosis incidence in summer months. The results showed a mean prevalence of 1.6% of milk samples positive for thermophilic Campylobacter spp. with a wide range (0.0-3.1%) in different months during the three years considered. The statistical analysis showed a significant difference (P<0.01) of the prevalence of positive samples for thermophilic Campylobacter spp. between warmer and cooler months (2.3 vs 0.6%). The evidence of a seasonal trend in thermophilic Campylobacter spp. contamination of raw milk sold for direct consumption, with an increase of the prevalence in warmer months, may represent one of the possible links between seasonal trend in cattle faecal shedding and seasonal trend in human campylobacteriosis.

Water-use advantage for lianas over trees in tropical seasonal forests

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chen, Y.J.; Cao, K.F.; Schnitzer, S.A.; Fan, Z.X.; Zhang, J.L.; Bongers, F.

2015-01-01

•Lianas exhibit peak abundance in tropical forests with strong seasonal droughts, the eco-physiological mechanisms associated with lianas coping with water deficits are poorly understood. •We examined soil water partitioning, sap flow, and canopy eco-physiological properties for 99 individuals of 15

Projecting future temperature-related mortality in three largest Australian cities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Liu, De Li; Chen, Dong; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu

2016-01-01

We estimated net annual temperature-related mortality in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Australia using 62 global climate model projections under three IPPC SRES CO_2 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). In all cities, all scenarios resulted in increases in summer temperature-related deaths for future decades, and decreases in winter temperature-related deaths. However, Brisbane and Sydney will increase the net annual temperature-related deaths in the future, while a slight decrease will happen in Melbourne. Additionally, temperature-related mortality will largely increase beyond the summer (including January, February, March, November and December) in Brisbane and Sydney, while temperature-related mortality will largely decrease beyond the winter in Melbourne. In conclusion, temperature increases for Australia are expected to result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city. In particular, the seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths will be shifted. - Temperature increases result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city in Australia.

Observational evidence of seasonality in the timing of loop current eddy separation

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Hall, Cody A.; Leben, Robert R.

2016-12-01

Observational datasets, reports and analyses over the time period from 1978 through 1992 are reviewed to derive pre-altimetry Loop Current (LC) eddy separation dates. The reanalysis identified 20 separation events in the 15-year record. Separation dates are estimated to be accurate to approximately ± 1.5 months and sufficient to detect statistically significant LC eddy separation seasonality, which was not the case for previously published records because of the misidentification of separation events and their timing. The reanalysis indicates that previously reported LC eddy separation dates, determined for the time period before the advent of continuous altimetric monitoring in the early 1990s, are inaccurate because of extensive reliance on satellite sea surface temperature (SST) imagery. Automated LC tracking techniques are used to derive LC eddy separation dates in three different altimetry-based sea surface height (SSH) datasets over the time period from 1993 through 2012. A total of 28-30 LC eddy separation events were identified in the 20-year record. Variations in the number and dates of eddy separation events are attributed to the different mean sea surfaces and objective-analysis smoothing procedures used to produce the SSH datasets. Significance tests on various altimetry and pre-altimetry/altimetry combined date lists consistently show that the seasonal distribution of separation events is not uniform at the 95% confidence level. Randomization tests further show that the seasonal peak in LC eddy separation events in August and September is highly unlikely to have occurred by chance. The other seasonal peak in February and March is less significant, but possibly indicates two seasons of enhanced probability of eddy separation centered near the spring and fall equinoxes. This is further quantified by objectively dividing the seasonal distribution into two seasons using circular statistical techniques and a k-means clustering algorithm. The estimated

Declining impacts of hot spells on mortality in the Czech Republic: adaptation to climate change?

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Kysely, Jan; Plavcova, Eva

2010-05-01

Extreme temperature events have pronounced negative impacts on ecosystems and society, including human health effects. The study examines temporal changes in mortality associated with spells of large positive temperature anomalies (hot spells) in the population of the Czech Republic (central Europe) during 1986-2006. Declining trends in the mortality impacts are found in summer as well as in transition seasons, in spite of rising temperature trends (warming by 1.4 deg. C in summer over the 21-year period). The finding remains unchanged if possible confounding effects of within-season acclimatization to heat and the mortality displacement effect are taken into account. Recent positive socio-economic development, following the collapse of communism in central and eastern Europe in 1989, and better public awareness of heat-related risks are likely the primary causes of the declining vulnerability. The results suggest that climate change may have relatively little influence on heat-related deaths, since changes in other factors that influence vulnerability of the population are dominant instead of temperature trends. It is essential to better understand the observed non-stationarity of the temperature-mortality relationship and the role of adaptation and its limits, both physiological and technological, and to address associated uncertainties in studies dealing with climate change projections of temperature-related mortality.

Quantifying forest mortality with the remote sensing of snow

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Baker, Emily Hewitt

Greenhouse gas emissions have altered global climate significantly, increasing the frequency of drought, fire, and pest-related mortality in forests across the western United States, with increasing area affected each year. Associated changes in forests are of great concern for the public, land managers, and the broader scientific community. These increased stresses have resulted in a widespread, spatially heterogeneous decline of forest canopies, which in turn exerts strong controls on the accumulation and melt of the snowpack, and changes forest-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, water, and energy. Most satellite-based retrievals of summer-season forest data are insufficient to quantify canopy, as opposed to the combination of canopy and undergrowth, since the signals of the two types of vegetation greenness have proven persistently difficult to distinguish. To overcome this issue, this research develops a method to quantify forest canopy cover using winter-season fractional snow covered area (FSCA) data from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow covered area and grain size (MODSCAG) algorithm. In areas where the ground surface and undergrowth are completely snow-covered, a pixel comprises only forest canopy and snow. Following a snowfall event, FSCA initially rises, as snow is intercepted in the canopy, and then falls, as snow unloads. A select set of local minima in a winter F SCA timeseries form a threshold where canopy is snow-free, but forest understory is snow-covered. This serves as a spatially-explicit measurement of forest canopy, and viewable gap fraction (VGF) on a yearly basis. Using this method, we determine that MODIS-observed VGF is significantly correlated with an independent product of yearly crown mortality derived from spectral analysis of Landsat imagery at 25 high-mortality sites in northern Colorado. (r =0.96 +/-0.03, p =0.03). Additionally, we determine the lag timing between green-stage tree mortality and

Consequences of cool-season drought induced plant mortality to Chihuahuan Desert grassland ecosystem and soil respiration dynamics

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Global climate change is predicted to increase the severity and frequency of cool-season drought across the arid Southwest US. We quantified net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE), ecosystem respiration (Reco), and gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP) in response to interannual seasonal precip...

Delayed norovirus epidemic in the 2009-2010 season in Japan: potential relationship with intensive hand sanitizer use for pandemic influenza.

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Inaida, S; Shobugawa, Y; Matsuno, S; Saito, R; Suzuki, H

2016-09-01

Norovirus (NoV) epidemics normally peak in December in Japan; however, the peak in the 2009-2010 season was delayed until the fourth week of January 2010. We suspected intensive hand hygiene that was conducted for a previous pandemic influenza in 2009 as the cause of this delay. We analysed the NoV epidemic trend, based on national surveillance data, and its associations with monthly output data for hand hygiene products, including alcohol-based skin antiseptics and hand soap. The delayed peak in the NoV incidence in the 2009-2010 season had the lowest number of recorded cases of the five seasons studied (2006-2007 to 2010-2011). GII.4 was the most commonly occurring genotype. The monthly relative risk of NoV and monthly output of both alcohol-based skin antiseptics and hand soap were significantly and negatively correlated. Our findings suggest an association between hand hygiene using these products and prevention of NoV transmission.

Ambient Ozone Pollution and Daily Mortality: A Nationwide Study in 272 Chinese Cities.

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Yin, Peng; Chen, Renjie; Wang, Lijun; Meng, Xia; Liu, Cong; Niu, Yue; Lin, Zhijing; Liu, Yunning; Liu, Jiangmei; Qi, Jinlei; You, Jinling; Zhou, Maigeng; Kan, Haidong

2017-11-21

Few large multicity studies have been conducted in developing countries to address the acute health effects of atmospheric ozone pollution. We explored the associations between ozone and daily cause-specific mortality in China. We performed a nationwide time-series analysis in 272 representative Chinese cities between 2013 and 2015. We used distributed lag models and over-dispersed generalized linear models to estimate the cumulative effects of ozone (lagged over 0-3 d) on mortality in each city, and we used hierarchical Bayesian models to combine the city-specific estimates. Regional, seasonal, and demographic heterogeneity were evaluated by meta-regression. At the national-average level, a 10-μg/m 3 increase in 8-h maximum ozone concentration was associated with 0.24% [95% posterior interval (PI): 0.13%, 0.35%], 0.27% (95% PI: 0.10%, 0.44%), 0.60% (95% PI: 0.08%, 1.11%), 0.24% (95% PI: 0.02%, 0.46%), and 0.29% (95% PI: 0.07%, 0.50%) higher daily mortality from all nonaccidental causes, cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, coronary diseases, and stroke, respectively. Associations between ozone and daily mortality due to respiratory and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease specifically were positive but imprecise and nonsignificant. There were no statistically significant differences in associations between ozone and nonaccidental mortality according to region, season, age, sex, or educational attainment. Our findings provide robust evidence of higher nonaccidental and cardiovascular mortality in association with short-term exposure to ambient ozone in China. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1849.

Seasonal variation of meteor decay times observed at King Sejong Station (62.22°S, 58.78°W), Antarctica

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Kim, Jeong-Han; Kim, Yong Ha; Lee, Chang-Sup; Jee, Geonhwa

2010-07-01

We analyzed meteor decay times measured by a VHF radar at King Sejong Station by classifying strong and weak meteors according to their estimated electron line densities. The height profiles of monthly averaged decay times show a peak whose altitude varies with season at altitudes of 80-85 km. The higher peak during summer is consistent with colder temperatures that cause faster chemical reactions of electron removal. By adopting temperature dependent empirical recombination rates from rocket experiments and meteor electron densities of 2×105-2×106 cm-3 in a decay time model, we are able to account for decreasing decay times below the peak for all seasons without invoking meteor electron removal by hypothetical icy particles.

[Human mortality due to invertebrate and vertebrate envenomation in Monagas State, Venezuela].

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De Sousa, Leonardo; Vásquez, Dioniris; Salazar, Doyra; Valecillos, Rigoberto; Vásquez, Dionisio; Rojas, María; Parrila-Alvarez, Pedro; Quiroga, Mercedes

2005-09-01

Human mortality due to envenomation by animals in Monagas state, Venezuela was evaluated. In this state 47 deaths due to envenomations produced by vertebrates and invertebrates (scorpions = 21, snakes = 20, bees = 6) during the period 1980-2000 were registered. The mountainous area, at the north of the state (Turimiquire sub-region) and its piedmonts reported most of the mortality by scorpionism (57.2%) and ophidism (70.0%). The age group of the patients was related with the sort of envenomation causing the death. During the period of dry season the highest percentage of deaths by scorpions and bees occurred; and the deaths produced by snakes were more frequent in the median raining season. The most frequent causes of death (61.9%) by scorpionism were the acute lung edema and congestive heart failure. In 40% of the deaths caused by snakes, alterations of the blood coagulability were observed. Bee envenomation was responsible of 50% of the deaths produced by anaphylactic shock. In none of the deaths, the species responsible of the accident was identified. The annual mean mortality rate/100,000 inhabitants, in the 21 years registered was 0.20 for the scorpion envenomation, 0.19 for ophidism and 0.06 for bee envenomation. The data suggest the importance of the mortality produced by scorpions and snakes, particularly at the north of the state.

Seasonal fluctuations in body weight during growth of Thoroughbred racehorses during their athletic career.

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Takahashi, Yuji; Takahashi, Toshiyuki

2017-08-18

Domesticated horses adapt to environmental conditions through seasonal fluctuations in their metabolic rate. The seasonal change of metabolic rates of domesticated horses in pastures is documented. However, there are few investigations on seasonal body weight change of domesticated horses housed in stables, which are provided constant energy intake throughout the year. Both seasonal changes and gain in body weight of racehorses during their athletic career is known to a lesser extent because their body weight are not measured in most countries. Here, we used a seasonal-trend decomposition method to conduct a time series analysis of body weight of Thoroughbred racehorses participating in flat races held by the Japan Racing Association from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2014. We acquired 640,431 body weight measurements for race starts and included 632,540 of these in the time series analysis. Based on seasonal component analysis, the body weight of male and gelding horses peaked in autumn and winter and reached its nadir in summer. In contrast, the body weight of female horses peaked in autumn and reached the nadir in spring. Based on trend component analysis, most of the increase in body weight was observed when all sexes approached 5 years of age. The slope of the body weight gain was smaller after that, and an approximately 30 kg gain was observed during their careers. These results indicate that the body weight of a Thoroughbred racehorse fluctuates seasonally, and that there may be sex differences in energy balance mechanisms. Moreover, the present results suggest that the physiological development of Thoroughbred racehorses is completed just before they reach 5 years of age.

Seasonal changes in the physiology of male Virginia opossums (Didelphis virginiana): signs of the Dasyurid semelparity syndrome?

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Woods, Henri A; Hellgren, Eric C

2003-01-01

Semelparity, which is multiplying once in a lifetime, is a rare reproductive strategy among mammals. Several species of the marsupial family Dasyuridae experience 100% male mortality following an intense mating period. We investigated seasonal physiological changes that may be associated with early mortality in the male Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana; Didelphidae) and compared these changes with those of semelparous, male dasyurids. Free-ranging male Virginia opossums (n=36) were collected during 2001 at the Oklahoma State University Cross Timbers Experimental Range. Seasonal data were collected on hematological, morphological, and helminth parameters of these individuals. We used one-way ANOVA to determine whether there were seasonal differences among means for each parameter. It appeared that male Virginia opossums experienced some physiological changes similar to those of male dasyurids exhibiting semelparity. All males collected in summer (August) were juveniles of the year. Lack of adult males in August suggests high mortality of this cohort during the breeding season. Opossum characteristics exhibiting the dasyurid semelparity syndrome included packed cell volume, adrenal mass, and helminth numbers. Minor lymphocytopenia, neutrophilia, and testosterone concentrations also were similar to semelparous dasyurids. However, a lack of change in serum cortisol concentration and body mass and dynamics in immunoglobulin protein, serum protein, and testes mass were not consistent with previous reports of semelparous dasyurid physiology. Evolutionary divergence and differences in breeding behavior between dasyurids and didelphids may be responsible for the lack of consistency between the taxa.

Seagrass proliferation precedes mortality during hypo-salinity events: a stress-induced morphometric response.

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Catherine J Collier

Full Text Available Halophytes, such as seagrasses, predominantly form habitats in coastal and estuarine areas. These habitats can be seasonally exposed to hypo-salinity events during watershed runoff exposing them to dramatic salinity shifts and osmotic shock. The manifestation of this osmotic shock on seagrass morphology and phenology was tested in three Indo-Pacific seagrass species, Halophila ovalis, Halodule uninervis and Zostera muelleri, to hypo-salinity ranging from 3 to 36 PSU at 3 PSU increments for 10 weeks. All three species had broad salinity tolerance but demonstrated a moderate hypo-salinity stress response--analogous to a stress induced morphometric response (SIMR. Shoot proliferation occurred at salinities <30 PSU, with the largest increases, up to 400% increase in shoot density, occurring at the sub-lethal salinities <15 PSU, with the specific salinity associated with peak shoot density being variable among species. Resources were not diverted away from leaf growth or shoot development to support the new shoot production. However, at sub-lethal salinities where shoots proliferated, flowering was severely reduced for H. ovalis, the only species to flower during this experiment, demonstrating a diversion of resources away from sexual reproduction to support the investment in new shoots. This SIMR response preceded mortality, which occurred at 3 PSU for H. ovalis and 6 PSU for H. uninervis, while complete mortality was not reached for Z. muelleri. This is the first study to identify a SIMR in seagrasses, being detectable due to the fine resolution of salinity treatments tested. The detection of SIMR demonstrates the need for caution in interpreting in-situ changes in shoot density as shoot proliferation could be interpreted as a healthy or positive plant response to environmental conditions, when in fact it could signal pre-mortality stress.

Seasonally-resolved trace element concentrations in stalagmites from a shallow cave in New Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Sekhon, N.; Banner, J.; Miller, N. R.; Carlson, P. E.; Breecker, D.

2017-12-01

High-resolution (sub-annual/seasonal) paleoclimate records extending beyond the instrumental period are required to test climate models and better understand how climate warming/cooling and wetting/drying are manifested seasonally. This is particularly the case for areas such as the southwest United States where precipitation and temperature seasonality dictate the regional climate. Study of a 20thcentury stalagmite (Carlson et al., in prep) documented (1) seasonal variation in trace element compositions of a stalagmite from a shallow, well-ventilated cave and (2) demonstrated the seasonal variation in stalagmite Mg to be in agreement with predicted temperature-dependent fractionation between water and calcite. The seasonal nature of variability was constrained by monitoring the cave on a monthly basis (Casteel and Banner, 2015; Carlson et al., in prep). Here we expand on using stalagmites from shallow, well-ventilated caves as archives of seasonally-resolved climate recorders by studying trace element variations in two coeval modern stalagmites (SBFC-1 and SBFC-2) cored from Sitting Bull Falls, southern New Mexico. Seasonal cycles will be confirmed by analyzing Mg, Ba, and Sr in in-situ calcite precipitated on artificial substrates as available (July, Sept., and Nov. 2017). The chronology is constrained by semi-automated peak counting and 14C bomb-peak. In addition, principal component analyses of trace element data identify two primary underlying modes of trace element variability for soil-derived elements (Cu, Zn, and Fe) and bedrock-derived elements (Mg, Sr, and Ba). We hypothesize that the soil-derived elements are transported by seasonal infiltration of organic colloids and the bedrock-derived elements are ­­controlled by variability in cave air temperature, drip water, and calcite growth rate. The two modes of variability will be calibrated against instrumental data over the 20th century. When complete, these new seasonally resolved proxy records will

First study on infestation of Excorallana berbicensis (Isopoda: Corallanidae on six fishes in a reservoir in Brazilian Amazon during dry and rainy seasons

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huann Carllo Gentil-Vasconcelos

2015-11-01

Full Text Available We analyzed the infestation levels of Excorallana berbicensis on Acestrorhynchus falcirostris, Ageneiosus ucayalensis, Geophagus proximus, Hemiodus unimaculatus, Psectrogasterfalcata and Serrasalmus gibbus in a reservoir in the Araguari River basin, northern Brazil, during the dry and rainy seasons. For P. falcata, the infestation levels due to E. berbicensis were greater during the rainy season. For all the species studied, the peak parasite prevalence was in the month of highest rainfall levels and there were two peaks of parasite abundance: one in the month with highest rainfall level and the other in the month of transition from the rainy season to the dry season. In these hosts, around 70% of the E. berbicensis specimens were collected during the rainy season. The body conditions of the hosts also did not suffer any seasonal influence. Despite the differences in seasonal rainfall levels, there was no fluctuation in transparency, turbidity, pH, electric conductivity, temperature and dissolved oxygen levels in the water, due to the stability of these parameters during the seasonal cycle investigated in this artificial Amazon ecosystem. This was the first report on the seasonality of infestation by E. berbicensis associated with fish.

Increased Mortality for Elective Surgery during Summer Vacation: A Longitudinal Analysis of Nationwide Data.

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Pascal Caillet

Full Text Available Surgical safety during vacation periods may be influenced by the interplay of several factors, including workers' leave, hospital activity, climate, and the variety of patient cases. This study aimed to highlight an annually recurring peak of surgical mortality during summer in France and explore its main predictors. We selected all elective of open surgical procedures performed in French hospitals between 2007 and 2012. Surgical mortality variation was analyzed over time in relation to workers leaving on vacation, the volume of procedures performed by hospitals, and temperature changes. We ran a multilevel logistic regression for exploring the determinants of surgical mortality, taking into account the clustering of patients within hospitals and adjusting for patient and hospital characteristics. A total of 609 French hospitals had 8,926,120 discharges related to open elective surgery. During 6 years, we found a recurring mortality peak of 1.15% (95% CI 1.09-1.20 in August compared with 0.81% (0.79-0.82, p<.001 in other months. The incidence of worker vacation was 43.0% (38.9-47.2 in August compared with 7.3% (4.6-10.1, p<.001 in other months. Hospital activity decreased substantially in August (78,126 inpatient stays, 75,298-80,954 in relation to other months (128,142, 125,697-130,586, p<.001. After adjusting for all covariates, we found an "August effect" reflecting a higher risk to patients undergoing operations at this time (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.12-1.19, p<.001. The main study limitation was the absence of data linkage between surgical staffing and mortality at the hospital level. The observed, recurring mortality peak in August raises questions about how to maintain hospital activity and optimal staffing through better regulation of human activities.

The effect of the seasonal cerebro-spinal meningitis on the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We found that the peak of the incidence of acquired hydrocephalus in young children follows that of the seasonal cerebro-spinal meningitis (CSM) by few weeks. The age group affected by post-meningetic hydrocephalus was that below two years. Children of this age group were not included in the national vaccination ...

Preparing for the Season (A Cup of Health with CDC)

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

2016-12-08

Flu season starts in the fall and goes through the spring, typically peaking between January and March in the United States. In this podcast, Dr. Joe Bresee discusses the importance of getting vaccinated against the flu every year.  Created: 12/8/2016 by MMWR.   Date Released: 12/8/2016.

Seasonal analysis of precipitation, drought and Vegetation index in Indonesian paddy field based on remote sensing data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darmawan, S; Takeuchi, W; Shofiyati, R; Sari, D K; Wikantika, K

2014-01-01

Paddy field is important agriculture crop in Indonesia. Rice is a food staple for 237,6 million Indonesian people. Paddy field growth is strongly influenced by water, but the amount of precipitation is unpredictable. Annual and interannual climate variability in Indonesia is unusual. In recent years remote sensing data has been used for measurement and monitoring of precipitation, drought and Vegetation index such as Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), Multi-purpose Transmission SATellite (MTSAT) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The objective of this research is to investigate seasonal variability of precipitation, drought and Vegetation index in Indonesian paddy field based on remote sensing data. The methodology consists of collecting of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) from MODIS data, mosaicking of image, collecting of region of interest of paddy field, collecting of precipitation and drought index based on Keetch Bryam Drought Index (KBDI) from GSMaP and MTSAT, and seasonal analysis. The result of this research has showed seasonal variability of precipitation, KBDI and EVI on Indonesia paddy field from 2007 until 2012. Precipitation begins from January until May and October until December, and KBDI begins to increase from June and peak in September only in South Sumatera precipitation almost in all month. Seasonal analysis has showed precipitation and KBDI affect on EVI that can indicate variety phenology of Indonesian paddy field. Peak of EVI occurs before peak of KBDI occurs and increasing of KBDI followed by decreasing of EVI. In 2010 all province got higher precipitation and smaller KBDI so EVI has three peaks such as in West Java that can indicated increasing of rice production

A study of the short-term associations between hospital admissions and mortality from heart failure and meteorological variables in Hong Kong: Weather and heart failure in Hong Kong.

Science.gov (United States)

Goggins, William B; Chan, Emily Yy

2017-02-01

Previous research has shown winter peaks for both hospitalizations and mortality from HF, but few studies have examined the association between meteorological parameters and HF. Daily HF admissions to Hong Kong public hospitals, which cover about 83% of total admissions, and daily HF deaths, were obtained for 2002-2011. Generalized additive (Poisson) regression models were used with daily HF admissions/mortality as outcomes and daily mean temperature, humidity, and wind speed as predictors, while controlling for pollutant levels, time trend, season, day of the week, and holiday. Non-linear distributed lag functions were used for predictors to allow for non-linear and delayed associations. Lower mean daily temperatures were strongly associated with increased HF admissions and mortality with a cumulative (to 23days) relative risk (RR) (95% confidence interval (CI)) for HF admissions of 2.63 (2.43, 2.84) for an 11°C. vs. a 25°Cday, and cumulative (42days) RR (95% CI)=3.13 (1.90, 5.16) for HF mortality. The association with cold weather was stronger among older age groups and for new hospitalizations compared to recurrent ones, while presence of co-morbidities did not modify the association. Both high and low relative humidity were modestly associated with more admissions. Both HF admissions and mortality in Hong Kong were very strongly associated with cold temperatures. Reducing exposure to cold temperatures among those at risk for HF has the potential to reduce hospitalizations and mortality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Circadian and seasonal variation of migraine attacks in children.

Science.gov (United States)

Soriani, Stefano; Fiumana, Elisa; Manfredini, Roberto; Boari, Benedetta; Battistella, Pier Antonio; Canetta, Elisabetta; Pedretti, Stefania; Borgna-Pignatti, Caterina

2006-01-01

To investigate the rhythmicity of migraine episodes without aura in a pediatric population. Time of occurrence of 2517 migraine attacks in 115 children was recorded, by means of a diary, both by hourly and monthly intervals. A significant circadian variation, characterized by a peak in the afternoon (P < .001) and one in the early morning (P= .002) was found. A seasonal peak was also observed between November and January, while a nadir was observed in July. The clustering of attacks in the morning and midday and in autumn-winter, with a minimum frequency in July, suggests that school activities may represent an important cause of migraine.

Mortality of Parental Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus during the Post-hatching Stage.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victoria J. Dreitz

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Monitoring, management, and conservation of grassland birds are topics of importance because of widespread population declines. Annual estimates of survival are available for many species, however knowledge of how survival varies on a seasonal basis remains poor. Information on the relative effects of breeding, overwintering, and migratory periods on population dynamics is necessary for effective management. Mortality risks often vary with the stage of the breeding cycle. In precocial species, mortality risks of adult birds are often higher during post-hatching care than prehatching. Using a multistate modeling approach, I investigated the influence of both environmental characteristics, measured by habitat, and individual characteristics, measured by sex and body mass, on post-hatching parental mortality of a declining grassland species, the Mountain Plover (Charadrius montanus. I found minimal evidence to support the effect of habitat, sex, or body mass on post-hatching parental mortality. Daily parental mortality was 0.0037 (SE = 0.0007, CI = 0.0026, 0.0053 and survival during the 30-day post-hatching period was 0.8943 (SE = 0.0187, CI = 0.8512, 0.9255. The findings from this study provide an understanding of the associations with today's grassland habitats and the dynamics of Mountain Plovers during the breeding season. Prior to assessing if alterations in habitats are acting more on post-hatching than the other stages of the annual cycle for the Mountain Plover, information on survival during other breeding stages and during migration is needed to assist in developing effective conservation and management plans.

Mortality of vertebrates in irrigation canals in an area of west-central Spain

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P. Garcia

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Mortality patterns of vertebrates in irrigation canals have been poorly studied despite their potential impact on wildlife. Concrete irrigation canals in a cropland area in west-central Spain were monitored over 13 months to assess their impact on small fauna. A total of 134 vertebrates were found dead. Most were amphibians (86.46% or mammals (20.90%, though fishes, reptiles and a bird were also recorded. Mortality peaked in autumn months. Corrective measurements are needed to reduce this cause of non-natural mortality.

Helminth infection is associated with hen mortality in Danish organic egg production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hinrichsen, Lena Karina; Labouriau, Rodrigo; Engberg, Ricarda M

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate whether two highly prevalent helminth infections (Ascaridia galli and Heterakis species) are associated with an increased mortality rate for hens at the peak of lay. An observational event study with 11 farms was conducted between 2012 and 2013, with weekl...... that the mortality in organic egg production may be reduced by measures to control A galli and Heterakis species infections....

Blue Oak Canopy Effect on Seasonal Forage Production and Quality

Science.gov (United States)

William E. Frost; Neil K. McDougald; Montague W. Demment

1991-01-01

Forage production and forage quality were measured seasonally beneath the canopy of blue oak (Quercus douglasii) and in open grassland at the San Joaquin Experimental Range. At the March and peak standing crop sampling dates forage production was significantly greater (p=.05) beneath blue oak compared to open grassland. At most sampling dates, the...

Road traffic related mortality in Vietnam: Evidence for policy from a national sample mortality surveillance system

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Ngo Anh D

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Road traffic injuries (RTIs are among the leading causes of mortality in Vietnam. However, mortality data collection systems in Vietnam in general and for RTIs in particular, remain inconsistent and incomplete. Underlying distributions of external causes and body injuries are not available from routine data collection systems or from studies till date. This paper presents characteristics, user type pattern, seasonal distribution, and causes of 1,061 deaths attributable to road crashes ascertained from a national sample mortality surveillance system in Vietnam over a two-year period (2008 and 2009. Methods A sample mortality surveillance system was designed for Vietnam, comprising 192 communes in 16 provinces, accounting for approximately 3% of the Vietnamese population. Deaths were identified from commune level data sources, and followed up by verbal autopsy (VA based ascertainment of cause of death. Age-standardised mortality rates from RTIs were computed. VA questionnaires were analysed in depth to derive descriptive characteristics of RTI deaths in the sample. Results The age-standardized mortality rates from RTIs were 33.5 and 8.5 per 100,000 for males and females respectively. Majority of deaths were males (79%. Seventy three percent of all deaths were aged from 15 to 49 years and 58% were motorcycle users. As high as 80% of deaths occurred on the day of injury, 42% occurred prior to arrival at hospital, and a further 29% occurred on-site. Direct causes of death were identified for 446 deaths (42% with head injuries being the most common cause attributable to road traffic injuries overall (79% and to motorcycle crashes in particular (78%. Conclusion The VA method can provide a useful data source to analyse RTI mortality. The observed considerable mortality from head injuries among motorcycle users highlights the need to evaluate current practice and effectiveness of motorcycle helmet use in Vietnam. The high number of

Modeling pollen time series using seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOESS smoothing.

Science.gov (United States)

Rojo, Jesús; Rivero, Rosario; Romero-Morte, Jorge; Fernández-González, Federico; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

2017-02-01

Analysis of airborne pollen concentrations provides valuable information on plant phenology and is thus a useful tool in agriculture-for predicting harvests in crops such as the olive and for deciding when to apply phytosanitary treatments-as well as in medicine and the environmental sciences. Variations in airborne pollen concentrations, moreover, are indicators of changing plant life cycles. By modeling pollen time series, we can not only identify the variables influencing pollen levels but also predict future pollen concentrations. In this study, airborne pollen time series were modeled using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) smoothing (STL). The data series-daily Poaceae pollen concentrations over the period 2006-2014-was broken up into seasonal and residual (stochastic) components. The seasonal component was compared with data on Poaceae flowering phenology obtained by field sampling. Residuals were fitted to a model generated from daily temperature and rainfall values, and daily pollen concentrations, using partial least squares regression (PLSR). This method was then applied to predict daily pollen concentrations for 2014 (independent validation data) using results for the seasonal component of the time series and estimates of the residual component for the period 2006-2013. Correlation between predicted and observed values was r = 0.79 (correlation coefficient) for the pre-peak period (i.e., the period prior to the peak pollen concentration) and r = 0.63 for the post-peak period. Separate analysis of each of the components of the pollen data series enables the sources of variability to be identified more accurately than by analysis of the original non-decomposed data series, and for this reason, this procedure has proved to be a suitable technique for analyzing the main environmental factors influencing airborne pollen concentrations.

Influenza-like illness in an urban community of Salvador, Brazil: incidence, seasonality and risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliveira, Carlos R; Costa, Gisela S R; Paploski, Igor A D; Kikuti, Mariana; Kasper, Amelia M; Silva, Monaise M O; Tavares, Aline S; Cruz, Jaqueline S; Queiroz, Tássia L; Lima, Helena C A V; Calcagno, Juan; Reis, Mitermayer G; Weinberger, Daniel M; Shapiro, Eugene D; Ko, Albert I; Ribeiro, Guilherme S

2016-03-15

Our understanding of the epidemiology of influenza is limited in tropical regions, which in turn has hampered identifying optimal region-specific policy to diminish disease burden. Influenza-like illness (ILI) is a clinical diagnosis that can be used as a surrogate for influenza. This study aimed to define the incidence and seasonality of ILI and to assess its association with climatic variables and school calendar in an urban community in the tropical region of Salvador, Brazil. Between 2009 and 2013, we conducted enhanced community-based surveillance for acute febrile illnesses (AFI) among patients ≥ 5 years of age in a slum community emergency unit in Salvador, Brazil. ILI was defined as a measured temperature of ≥ 37.8 °C or reported fever in a patient with cough or sore throat for ≤ 7 days, and negative test results for dengue and leptospirosis. Seasonality was analyzed with a harmonic regression model. Negative binomial regression models were used to correlate ILI incidence with rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and the number of days per month that schools were in session while controlling for seasonality. There were 2,651 (45.6% of 5,817 AFI patients) ILI cases with a mean annual incidence of 60 cases/1,000 population (95% CI 58-62). Risk of ILI was highest among 5-9 year olds with an annual incidence of 105 cases/1,000 population in 2009. ILI had a clear seasonal pattern with peaks between the 35-40th week of the year. ILI peaks were higher and earlier in 5-9 year olds compared with > 19 year olds. No association was seen between ILI and precipitation, relative humidity or temperature. There was a significant association between the incidence of ILI in children 5-9 years of age and number of scheduled school days per month. We identified a significant burden of ILI with distinct seasonality in the Brazilian tropics and highest rates among young school-age children. Seasonal peaks of ILI in children 5-9 years of age were positively associated

Plant nitrogen dynamics and nitrogen-use strategies under altered nitrogen seasonality and competition.

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Zhiyou; Liu, Weixing; Niu, Shuli; Wan, Shiqiang

2007-10-01

Numerous studies have examined the effects of climatic factors on the distribution of C(3) and C(4) grasses in various regions throughout the world, but the role of seasonal fluctuations in temperature, precipitation and soil N availability in regulating growth and competition of these two functional types is still not well understood. This report is about the effects of seasonality of soil N availability and competition on plant N dynamics and N-use strategies of one C(3) (Leymus chinensis) and one C(4) (Chloris virgata) grass species. Leymus chinensis and C. virgata, two grass species native to the temperate steppe in northern China, were planted in a monoculture and a mixture under three different N seasonal availabilities: an average model (AM) with N evenly distributed over the growing season; a one-peak model (OM) with more N in summer than in spring and autumn; and a two-peak model (TM) with more N in spring and autumn than in summer. The results showed that the altered N seasonality changed plant N concentration, with the highest value of L. chinensis under the OM treatment and C. virgata under the TM treatment, respectively. N seasonality also affected plant N content, N productivity and N-resorption efficiency and proficiency in both the C(3) and C(4) species. Interspecific competition influenced N-use and resorption efficiency in both the C(3) and C(4) species, with higher N-use and resorption efficiency in the mixture than in monoculture. The C(4) grass had higher N-use efficiency than the C(3) grass due to its higher N productivity, irrespective of the N treatment or competition. The observations suggest that N-use strategies in the C(3) and C(4) species used in the study were closely related to seasonal dynamics of N supply and competition. N seasonality might be involved in the growth and temporal niche separation between C(3) and C(4) species observed in the natural ecosystems.

Is earthquake rate in south Iceland modified by seasonal loading?

Science.gov (United States)

Jonsson, S.; Aoki, Y.; Drouin, V.

2017-12-01

Several temporarily varying processes have the potential of modifying the rate of earthquakes in the south Iceland seismic zone, one of the two most active seismic zones in Iceland. These include solid earth tides, seasonal meteorological effects and influence from passing weather systems, and variations in snow and glacier loads. In this study we investigate the influence these processes may have on crustal stresses and stressing rates in the seismic zone and assess whether they appear to be influencing the earthquake rate. While historical earthquakes in the south Iceland have preferentially occurred in early summer, this tendency is less clear for small earthquakes. The local earthquake catalogue (going back to 1991, magnitude of completeness M6+ earthquakes, which occurred in June 2000 and May 2008. Standard Reasenberg earthquake declustering or more involved model independent stochastic declustering algorithms are not capable of fully eliminating the aftershocks from the catalogue. We therefore inspected the catalogue for the time period before 2000 and it shows limited seasonal tendency in earthquake occurrence. Our preliminary results show no clear correlation between earthquake rates and short-term stressing variations induced from solid earth tides or passing storms. Seasonal meteorological effects also appear to be too small to influence the earthquake activity. Snow and glacier load variations induce significant vertical motions in the area with peak loading occurring in Spring (April-May) and maximum unloading in Fall (Sept.-Oct.). Early summer occurrence of historical earthquakes therefore correlates with early unloading rather than with the peak unloading or unloading rate, which appears to indicate limited influence of this seasonal process on the earthquake activity.

Detection of early warning signals of forest mortality in California

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Y.; Kumar, M.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.

2017-12-01

Massive forest mortality was observed in California during the most recent drought. Owing to complex interactions of physiological mechanisms under stress, prediction of climate-induced forest mortality using dynamic global vegetation models remains fraught with uncertainty. Given that forest ecosystems approaching mortality tend to exhibit reduction in resilience, we evaluate the time-varying resilience from time series of satellite images to detect early warning signals (EWSs) of mortality. Four metrics of EWSs are used: (1) low greenness, (2) high empirical autocorrelation of greenness, (3) high autocorrelation inferred using a Bayesian dynamic linear model considering the influence of seasonality and climate conditions, and (4) low recovery rate inferred from the drift term in the Langevin equation describing stochastic dynamics. Spatial accuracy and lead-time of these EWSs are evaluated by comparing the EWSs against observed mortality from aerial surveys conducted by the US Forest Service. Our results show that most forested areas in California that underwent mortality exhibit a EWS with a lead time of three months to two years ahead of observed mortality. Notably, EWS is also detected in some areas without mortality, suggesting reduced resilience during drought. Furthermore, the influence of the previous drought (2007-2009) may have propagated into the recent drought (2012-2016) through reduced resilience, hence contributing to the massive forest mortality observed recently. Methodologies developed in this study for detection of EWS will improve the near-term predictability of forest mortality, thus providing crucial information for forest and water resource management.

Seasonality of dizziness and vertigo in a tropical region.

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, Alcione Botelho; Almeida, Leonardo Alves Ferreira; Pereira, Nayara Gorette; Menezes, Patrícia Andrade Freitas de; Felipe, Lilian; Volpe, Fernando Madalena

2015-06-01

Vertigo and dizziness are among the most common medical complaints in the emergency room, and are associated with a considerable personal and health care burden. Scarce and conflicting reports indicate those symptoms may present a seasonal distribution. This study aimed at investigating the existence of a seasonal distribution of vertigo/dizziness in a tropical region, and the correlations of these findings with climatic variables. The charts of all patients consecutively admitted between 2009 and 2012 in the emergency room of a Brazilian general hospital were reviewed. A total of 4920 cases containing these terms were sorted from a sample of 276,076 emergency records. Seasonality was assessed using Cosinor Analysis. Pearson's correlations were performed between the incidence of consultations, considering separately dizziness and vertigo and each of the predictor climatic variables of that index month. Significant seasonal patterns were observed for dizziness and vertigo in the emergency room. Vertigo was more frequent in late winter-spring, negatively correlating to humidity (r = -0.374; p = 0.013) and rainfall (r = -0.334; p = 0.020). Dizziness peaked on summer months, and positively correlated to average temperatures (r = 0.520; p vertigo indicate possible distinct underlying mechanisms of how seasons may influence the occurrence of those symptoms.

Daily and seasonal rhythms in immune responses of splenocytes in the freshwater snake, Natrix piscator.

Science.gov (United States)

Tripathi, Manish Kumar; Singh, Ramesh; Pati, Atanu Kumar

2015-01-01

Present study was designed to examine daily and seasonal variability in the innate immune responses of splenocytes in the fresh water snake, Natrix piscator. Animals were mildly anesthetized and spleen was aseptically isolated and processed for macrophage phagocytosis, NBT reduction, nitrite production, splenocyte proliferation and serum lysozyme activity. Samples were collected at seven time points, viz., 0000, 0400, 0800, 1200, 1600, 2000 and 0000 h during three different seasons, namely summer, winter and spring. Cosinor analysis revealed that percent phagocytosis had a significant 24-h rhythm during summer and spring seasons. The peaks of rhythms in NBT reduction and nitrite release occurred in the morning hours at 10.88 h and 8.31 h, respectively, in winter. A significant 24-h rhythm was also observed in lysozyme concentration and splenocyte proliferation (both Basal and Concanavalin A stimulated) in all three seasons. A significant phase shift in splenocyte proliferation was obtained with a trend of delayed phase shift from winter to spring and from spring to summer. Of the nine variables, significant annual (seasonal) rhythms were detected in almost all variables, excluding phagocytic and splenosomatic indices. All rhythmic variables, except spleen cellularity, exhibited tightly synchronized peaks coinciding with the progressive and recrudescence phases of annual reproductive cycle. It is concluded that the snake synchronizes its daily and seasonal immune activity with the corresponding external time cues. The enhancement of immune function coinciding with one of its crucial reproductive phases might be helping it to cope with the seasonal stressors, including abundance of pathogens, which would otherwise jeopardize the successful reproduction and eventual survival of the species.

Seasonal variation in orthopedic health services utilization in Switzerland: the impact of winter sport tourism.

Science.gov (United States)

Matter-Walstra, Klazien; Widmer, Marcel; Busato, André

2006-03-03

Climate- or holiday-related seasonality in hospital admission rates is well known for many diseases. However, little research has addressed the impact of tourism on seasonality in admission rates. We therefore investigated the influence of tourism on emergency admission rates in Switzerland, where winter and summer leisure sport activities in large mountain regions can generate orthopedic injuries. Using small area analysis, orthopedic hospital service areas (HSAo) were evaluated for seasonality in emergency admission rates. Winter sport areas were defined using guest bed accommodation rate patterns of guest houses and hotels located above 1000 meters altitude that show clear winter and summer peak seasons. Emergency admissions (years 2000-2002, n = 135'460) of local and nonlocal HSAo residents were evaluated. HSAo were grouped according to their area type (regular or winter sport area) and monthly analyses of admission rates were performed. Of HSAo within the defined winter sport areas 70.8% show a seasonal, summer-winter peak hospital admission rate pattern and only 1 HSAo outside the defined winter sport areas shows such a pattern. Seasonal hospital admission rates in HSAo in winter sport areas can be up to 4 times higher in winter than the intermediate seasons, and they are almost entirely due to admissions of nonlocal residents. These nonlocal residents are in general -and especially in winter- younger than local residents, and nonlocal residents have a shorter length of stay in winter sport than in regular areas. The overall geographic distribution of nonlocal residents admitted for emergencies shows highest rates during the winter as well as the summer in the winter sport areas. Small area analysis using orthopedic hospital service areas is a reliable method for the evaluation of seasonality in hospital admission rates. In Switzerland, HSAo defined as winter sport areas show a clear seasonal fluctuation in admission rates of only nonlocal residents, whereas

Seasonal variation in human reproduction: environmental factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Bronson, F H

1995-06-01

Almost all human populations exhibit seasonal variation in births, owing mostly to seasonal variation in the frequency of conception. This review focuses on the degree to which environmental factors like nutrition, temperature and photoperiod contribute to these seasonal patterns by acting directly on the reproductive axis. The reproductive strategy of humans is basically that of the apes: Humans have the capacity to reproduce continuously, albeit slowly, unless inhibited by environmental influences. Two, and perhaps three, environmental factors probably act routinely as seasonal inhibitors in some human populations. First, it seems likely that ovulation is regulated seasonally in populations experiencing seasonal variation in food availability. More specifically, it seems likely that inadequate food intake or the increased energy expenditure required to obtain food, or both, can delay menarche, suppress the frequency of ovulation in the nonlactating adult, and prolong lactational amenorrhea in these populations on a seasonal basis. This action is most easily seen in tropical subsistence societies where food availability often varies greatly owing to seasonal variation in rainfall; hence births in these populations often correlate with rainfall. Second, it seems likely that seasonally high temperatures suppress spermatogenesis enough to influence the incidence of fertilization in hotter latitudes, but possibly only in males wearing clothing that diminishes scrotal cooling. Since most of our knowledge about this phenomenon comes from temperate latitudes, the sensitivity of spermatogenesis in both human and nonhuman primates to heat in the tropics needs further study. It is quite possible that high temperatures suppress ovulation and early embryo survival seasonally in some of these same populations. Since we know less than desired about the effect of heat stress on ovulation and early pregnancy in nonhuman mammals, and nothing at all about it in humans or any of the

An exploration of spatial patterns of seasonal diarrhoeal morbidity in Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

McCormick, B J J; Alonso, W J; Miller, M A

2012-07-01

Studies of temporal and spatial patterns of diarrhoeal disease can suggest putative aetiological agents and environmental or socioeconomic drivers. Here, the seasonal patterns of monthly acute diarrhoeal morbidity in Thailand, where diarrhoeal morbidity is increasing, are explored. Climatic data (2003-2006) and Thai Ministry of Health annual reports (2003-2009) were used to construct a spatially weighted panel regression model. Seasonal patterns of diarrhoeal disease were generally bimodal with aetiological agents peaking at different times of the year. There is a strong association between daily mean temperature and precipitation and the incidence of hospitalization due to acute diarrhoea in Thailand leading to a distinct spatial pattern in the seasonal pattern of diarrhoea. Model performance varied across the country in relation to per capita GDP and population density. While climatic factors are likely to drive the general pattern of diarrhoeal disease in Thailand, the seasonality of diarrhoeal disease is dampened in affluent urban populations.

Peak-interviewet

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Raalskov, Jesper; Warming-Rasmussen, Bent

Peak-interviewet er en særlig effektiv metode til at gøre ubevidste menneskelige ressourcer bevidste. Fokuspersonen (den interviewede) interviewes om en selvvalgt, personlig succesoplevelse. Terapeuten/coachen (intervieweren) spørger ind til processen, som ledte hen til denne succes. Herved afdæk...... fokuspersonen ønsker at tage op (nye mål eller nye processer). Nærværende workingpaper beskriver, hvad der menes med et peak-interview, peakinterviwets teoretiske fundament samt metodikken til at foretage et tillidsfuldt og effektiv peak-interview....

'Peak oil' or 'peak demand'?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevallier, Bruno; Moncomble, Jean-Eudes; Sigonney, Pierre; Vially, Rolland; Bosseboeuf, Didier; Chateau, Bertrand

2012-01-01

This article reports a workshop which addressed several energy issues like the objectives and constraints of energy mix scenarios, the differences between the approaches in different countries, the cost of new technologies implemented for this purposes, how these technologies will be developed and marketed, which will be the environmental and societal acceptability of these technical choices. Different aspects and issues have been more precisely presented and discussed: the peak oil, development of shale gases and their cost (will non conventional hydrocarbons modify the peak oil and be socially accepted?), energy efficiency (its benefits, its reality in France and other countries, its position in front of the challenge of energy transition), and strategies in the transport sector (challenges for mobility, evolution towards a model of sustainable mobility)

Automated Peak Picking and Peak Integration in Macromolecular NMR Spectra Using AUTOPSY

Science.gov (United States)

Koradi, Reto; Billeter, Martin; Engeli, Max; Güntert, Peter; Wüthrich, Kurt

1998-12-01

A new approach for automated peak picking of multidimensional protein NMR spectra with strong overlap is introduced, which makes use of the program AUTOPSY (automatedpeak picking for NMRspectroscopy). The main elements of this program are a novel function for local noise level calculation, the use of symmetry considerations, and the use of lineshapes extracted from well-separated peaks for resolving groups of strongly overlapping peaks. The algorithm generates peak lists with precise chemical shift and integral intensities, and a reliability measure for the recognition of each peak. The results of automated peak picking of NOESY spectra with AUTOPSY were tested in combination with the combined automated NOESY cross peak assignment and structure calculation routine NOAH implemented in the program DYANA. The quality of the resulting structures was found to be comparable with those from corresponding data obtained with manual peak picking.

Seasonality of alcohol-related phenomena in Estonia

Science.gov (United States)

Silm, Siiri; Ahas, Rein

2005-03-01

We studied alcohol consumption and its consequences as a seasonal phenomenon in Estonia and analysed the social and environmental factors that may cause its seasonal rhythm. There are two important questions when researching the seasonality of human activities: (1) whether it is caused by natural or social factors, and (2) whether the impact of the factors is direct or indirect. Often the seasonality of social phenomena is caused by social factors, but the triggering mechanisms are related to environmental factors like temperature, precipitation, and radiation via the circannual calendar. The indicators of alcohol consumption in the current paper are grouped as: (1) pre-consumption phenomena, i.e. production, tax and excise, sales (beer, wine and vodka are analysed separately), and (2) post-consumption phenomena, i.e. alcohol-related crime and traffic accidents and the number of people detained in lockups and admitted to alcohol treatment clinics. In addition, seasonal variability in the amount of alcohol advertising has been studied, and a survey has been carried out among 87 students of Tartu University. The analysis shows that different phenomena related to alcohol have a clear seasonal rhythm in Estonia. The peak period of phenomena related to beer is in the summer, from June to August and the low point is during the first months of the year. Beer consumption correlates well with air temperature. The consumption of vodka increases sharply at the end of the year and in June; the production of vodka does not have a significant correlation with negative temperatures. The consumption of wine increases during summer and in December. The consequences of alcohol consumption, expressed as the rate of traffic accidents or the frequency of medical treatment, also show seasonal variability. Seasonal variability of alcohol consumption in Estonia is influenced by natural factors (temperature, humidity, etc.) and by social factors (celebrations, vacations, etc.). However

Particulate air pollution and daily mortality in Detroit.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, J

1991-12-01

Particulate air pollution has been associated with increased mortality during episodes of high pollution concentrations. The relationship at lower concentrations has been more controversial, as has the relative role of particles and sulfur dioxide. Replication has been difficult because suspended particle concentrations are usually measured only every sixth day in the U.S. This study used concurrent measurements of total suspended particulates (TSP) and airport visibility from every sixth day sampling for 10 years to fit a predictive model for TSP. Predicted daily TSP concentrations were then correlated with daily mortality counts in Poisson regression models controlling for season, weather, time trends, overdispersion, and serial correlation. A significant correlation (P less than 0.0001) was found between predicted TSP and daily mortality. This correlation was independent of sulfur dioxide, but not vice versa. The magnitude of the effect was very similar to results recently reported from Steubenville, Ohio (using actual TSP measurements), with each 100 micrograms/m3 increase in TSP resulting in a 6% increase in mortality. Graphical analysis indicated a dose-response relationship with no evidence of a threshold down to concentrations below half of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for particulate matter.

Seasonality of workload of women in rural areas of Bangladesh: some male-female comparison.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, R I

1986-12-01

This paper discusses sex differences in the seasonality of domestic and productive work among males and females in Bangladesh. The greater fluctuation in productive work done by women is most likely due to the seasonal demand by agricultural processing activities rather than by voluntary withdrawal of women from work. In the case of housework, the amount of work done by men is more variable. This again may be understood in terms of the type of work performed by each. Women are engaged in the essential chores like cooking, cleaning, and in the essential part of child care such as feeding. Housework done by men consists mostly of shopping, some maintenance of the house and household goods, and looking after children, which mainly consists of playing with them. Given such a division of work, which is always to the advantage of men, they have more flexibility in being able to postpone housework when productive work peaks. In periods without employment, men spend longer hours at the market. Women from the richer classes work more hours than do women from the poorer classes, while the opposite is true for men. This study suggests that women's seasonal workload deserves attention because it creates a greater pressure on them than it does on men. Moreover, the pressure of the seasonal workload falls disproportionately on women from various landholding groups. Women from large landholding groups are overburdened in the peak season, whereas males in this group are comfortably underemployed even in the busy season. The structural factors which hinder the lowering of the wealthier women's workload by hiring women from landless and land-poor groups need to be studied carefully.

In-season and out-of-season variation of rotavirus genotype distribution and age of infection across 12 European countries before the introduction of routine vaccination, 2007/08 to 2012/13

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hungerford, Daniel; Vivancos, Roberto; Read, Jonathan M

2016-01-01

distribution and age distribution of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) cases in and out of peak season in 12 countries which were yet to implement routine rotavirus vaccination. In multinomial multivariate logistic regression, adjusting for year, country and age, the odds of infection caused by genotype...

Seasonal variability in penaeid prawn larval abundance in the Mandovi and Zuari estuaries, Goa

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Goswami, S.C.; Goswami, U.

more in the bottom samples. Based on larval density, M. dobsoni appeared to be a continuous breeder. The active spawning periods in other species were during the late postmonsoon and premonsoon seasons varying with the species. Peak recruitment...

Deciphering infant mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Berrut, Sylvie; Pouillard, Violette; Richmond, Peter; Roehner, Bertrand M.

2016-12-01

This paper is about infant mortality. In line with reliability theory, "infant" refers to the time interval following birth during which the mortality (or failure) rate decreases. This definition provides a systems science perspective in which birth constitutes a sudden transition falling within the field of application of the Transient Shock (TS) conjecture put forward in Richmond and Roehner (2016c). This conjecture provides predictions about the timing and shape of the death rate peak. It says that there will be a death rate spike whenever external conditions change abruptly and drastically and also predicts that after a steep rise there will be a much longer hyperbolic relaxation process. These predictions can be tested by considering living organisms for which the transient shock occurs several days after birth. Thus, for fish there are three stages: egg, yolk-sac and young adult phases. The TS conjecture predicts a mortality spike at the end of the yolk-sac phase and this timing is indeed confirmed by observation. Secondly, the hyperbolic nature of the relaxation process can be tested using very accurate Swiss statistics for postnatal death rates spanning the period from one hour immediately after birth through to age 10 years. It turns out that since the 19th century despite a significant and large reduction in infant mortality, the shape of the age-specific death rate has remained basically unchanged. Moreover the hyperbolic pattern observed for humans is also found for small primates as recorded in the archives of zoological gardens. Our overall objective is to identify a series of cases which start from simple systems and move step by step to more complex organisms. The cases discussed here we believe represent initial landmarks in this quest.

Multicity study of air pollution and mortality in Latin America (the ESCALA study).

Science.gov (United States)

Romieu, Isabelle; Gouveia, Nelson; Cifuentes, Luis A; de Leon, Antonio Ponce; Junger, Washington; Vera, Jeanette; Strappa, Valentina; Hurtado-Díaz, Magali; Miranda-Soberanis, Victor; Rojas-Bracho, Leonora; Carbajal-Arroyo, Luz; Tzintzun-Cervantes, Guadalupe

2012-10-01

The ESCALA* project (Estudio de Salud y Contaminación del Aire en Latinoamérica) is an HEI-funded study that aims to examine the association between exposure to outdoor air pollution and mortality in nine Latin American cities, using a common analytic framework to obtain comparable and updated information on the effects of air pollution on several causes of death in different age groups. This report summarizes the work conducted between 2006 and 2009, describes the methodologic issues addressed during project development, and presents city-specific results of meta-analyses and meta-regression analyses. The ESCALA project involved three teams of investigators responsible for collection and analysis of city-specific air pollution and mortality data from three different countries. The teams designed five different protocols to standardize the methods of data collection and analysis that would be used to evaluate the effects of air pollution on mortality (see Appendices B-F). By following the same protocols, the investigators could directly compare the results among cities. The analysis was conducted in two stages. The first stage included analyses of all-natural-cause and cause-specific mortality related to particulate matter Chile, and México. Analyses for PM10 and O3 were also stratified by age group and O3 analyses were stratified by season. Generalized linear models (GLM) in Poisson regression were used to fit the time-series data. Time trends and seasonality were modeled using natural splines with 3, 6, 9, or 12 degrees of freedom (df) per year. Temperature and humidity were also modeled using natural splines, initially with 3 or 6 df, and then with degrees of freedom chosen on the basis of residual diagnostics (i.e., partial autocorrelation function [PACF], periodograms, and a Q-Q plot) (Appendix H, available on the HEI Web site). Indicator variables for day-of-week and holidays were used to account for short-term cyclic fluctuations. To assess the

Libyan armed conflict 2011: Mortality, injury and population displacement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamed A. Daw

2015-09-01

Conclusion: The Libyan armed conflict resulted in great human loss and social damage mirrored by high rates of mortality, injury and human displacement. Such parameters peaked as the conflict escalated and differed according to the Libyan regions and provinces involved. National and international efforts should be combined to overcome the consequences of these conflicts.

Planting of neonicotinoid-coated corn raises honey bee mortality and sets back colony development

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Olivier Samson-Robert

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Worldwide occurrences of honey bee colony losses have raised concerns about bee health and the sustainability of pollination-dependent crops. While multiple causal factors have been identified, seed coating with insecticides of the neonicotinoid family has been the focus of much discussion and research. Nonetheless, few studies have investigated the impacts of these insecticides under field conditions or in commercial beekeeping operations. Given that corn-seed coating constitutes the largest single use of neonicotinoid, our study compared honey bee mortality from commercial apiaries located in two different agricultural settings, i.e. corn-dominated areas and corn-free environments, during the corn planting season. Data was collected in 2012 and 2013 from 26 bee yards. Dead honey bees from five hives in each apiary were counted and collected, and samples were analyzed using a multi-residue LC-MS/MS method. Long-term effects on colony development were simulated based on a honey bee population dynamic model. Mortality survey showed that colonies located in a corn-dominated area had daily mortality counts 3.51 times those of colonies from corn crop-free sites. Chemical analyses revealed that honey bees were exposed to various agricultural pesticides during the corn planting season, but were primarily subjected to neonicotinoid compounds (54% of analysed samples contained clothianidin, and 31% contained both clothianidin and thiamethoxam. Performance development simulations performed on hive populations’ show that increased mortality during the corn planting season sets back colony development and bears contributions to collapse risk but, most of all, reduces the effectiveness and value of colonies for pollination services. Our results also have implications for the numerous large-scale and worldwide-cultivated crops that currently rely on pre-emptive use of neonicotinoid seed treatments.

Seasonal Mass Changes and Crustal Vertical Deformations Constrained by GPS and GRACE in Northeastern Tibet

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Yuanjin Pan

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Surface vertical deformation includes the Earth’s elastic response to mass loading on or near the surface. Continuous Global Positioning System (CGPS stations record such deformations to estimate seasonal and secular mass changes. We used 41 CGPS stations to construct a time series of coordinate changes, which are decomposed by empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs, in northeastern Tibet. The first common mode shows clear seasonal changes, indicating seasonal surface mass re-distribution around northeastern Tibet. The GPS-derived result is then assessed in terms of the mass changes observed in northeastern Tibet. The GPS-derived common mode vertical change and the stacked Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE mass change are consistent, suggesting that the seasonal surface mass variation is caused by changes in the hydrological, atmospheric and non-tidal ocean loads. The annual peak-to-peak surface mass changes derived from GPS and GRACE results show seasonal oscillations in mass loads, and the corresponding amplitudes are between 3 and 35 mm/year. There is an apparent gradually increasing gravity between 0.1 and 0.9 μGal/year in northeast Tibet. Crustal vertical deformation is determined after eliminating the surface load effects from GRACE, without considering Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA contribution. It reveals crustal uplift around northeastern Tibet from the corrected GPS vertical velocity. The unusual uplift of the Longmen Shan fault indicates tectonically sophisticated processes in northeastern Tibet.

Burden of mortality and years of life lost due to ambient PM10 pollution in Wuhan, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yunquan; Peng, Minjin; Yu, Chuanhua; Zhang, Lan

2017-11-01

Ambient particulate matter (PM) has been mainly linked with mortality and morbidity when assessing PM-associated health effects. Up-to-date epidemiologic evidence is very sparse regarding the relation between PM and years of life lost (YLL). The present study aimed to estimate the burden of YLL and mortality due to ambient PM pollution. Individual records of all registered deaths and daily data on PM 10 and meteorology during 2009-2012 were obtained in Wuhan, central China. Using a time-series study design, we applied generalized additive model to assess the short-term association of 10-μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 with daily YLL and mortality, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, mean temperature, relative humidity, public holiday, and day of the week. A linear-no-threshold dose-response association was observed between daily ambient PM 10 and mortality outcomes. PM 10 pollution along lag 0-1 days was found to be mostly strongly associated with mortality and YLL. The effects of PM 10 on cause-specific mortality and YLL showed generally similar seasonal patterns, with stronger associations consistently occurring in winter and/or autumn. Compared with males and younger persons, females and the elderly suffered more significantly from both increased YLL and mortality due to ambient PM 10 pollution. Stratified analyses by education level (0-6 and 7 + years) demonstrated great mortality impact on both subgroups, whereas only low-educated persons were strongly affected by PM 10 -associated burden of YLL. Our study confirmed that short-term PM 10 exposure was linearly associated with significant increases in both mortality incidence and years of life lost. Given the non-threshold adverse effects on mortality burden, the on-going efforts to reduce particulate air pollution would substantially benefit public health in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Size-dependent mortality rate profiles.

Science.gov (United States)

Roa-Ureta, Ruben H

2016-08-07

Knowledge of mortality rates is crucial to the understanding of population dynamics in populations of free-living fish and invertebrates in marine and freshwater environments, and consequently to sustainable resource management. There is a well developed theory of population dynamics based on age distributions that allow direct estimation of mortality rates. However, for most cases the aging of individuals is difficult or age distributions are not available for other reasons. The body size distribution is a widely available alternative although the theory underlying the formation of its shape is more complicated than in the case of age distributions. A solid theory of the time evolution of a population structured by any physiological variable has been developed in 1960s and 1970s by adapting the Hamilton-Jacobi formulation of classical mechanics, and equations to estimate the body size-distributed mortality profile have been derived for simple cases. Here I extend those results with regards to the size-distributed mortality profile to complex cases of non-stationary populations, individuals growing according to a generalised growth model and seasonally patterned recruitment pulses. I apply resulting methods to two cases in the marine environment, a benthic crustacean population that was growing during the period of observation and whose individuals grow with negative acceleration, and a sea urchin coastal population that is undergoing a stable cycle of two equilibrium points in population size whose individuals grow with varying acceleration that switches sign along the size range. The extension is very general and substantially widens the applicability of the theory. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tree Mortality following Prescribed Fire and a Storm Surge Event in Slash Pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa Forests in the Florida Keys, USA

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Jay P. Sah

2010-01-01

Full Text Available In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

Tree Mortality following Prescribed Fire and a Storm Surge Event in Slash Pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa) Forests in the Florida Keys, USA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sah, J.P.; Ross, M.S.; Ross, M.S.; Ogurcak, D.E.; Snyder, J.R.

2010-01-01

In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on post fire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with under story type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pine lands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

Tree mortality following prescribed fire and a storm surge event in Slash Pine (pinus elliottii var. densa) forests in the Florida Keys, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Sah, Jay P.; Ross, Michael S.; Snyder, James R.; Ogurcak, Danielle E.

2010-01-01

In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

Price, environment and security: Exploring multi-modal motivation in voluntary residential peak demand response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gyamfi, Samuel; Krumdieck, Susan

2011-01-01

Peak demand on electricity grids is a growing problem that increases costs and risks to supply security. Residential sector loads often contribute significantly to seasonal and daily peak demand. Demand response projects aim to manage peak demand by applying price signals and automated load shedding technologies. This research investigates voluntary load shedding in response to information about the security of supply, the emission profile and the cost of meeting critical peak demand in the customers' network. Customer willingness to change behaviour in response to this information was explored through mail-back survey. The diversified demand modelling method was used along with energy audit data to estimate the potential peak load reduction resulting from the voluntary demand response. A case study was conducted in a suburb of Christchurch, New Zealand, where electricity is the main source for water and space heating. On this network, all water heating cylinders have ripple-control technology and about 50% of the households subscribe to differential day/night pricing plan. The survey results show that the sensitivity to supply security is on par with price, with the emission sensitivity being slightly weaker. The modelling results show potential 10% reduction in critical peak load for aggregate voluntary demand response. - Highlights: → Multiple-factor behaviour intervention is necessarily for effective residential demand response. → Security signals can achieve result comparable to price. → The modelling results show potential 10% reduction in critical peak load for aggregate voluntary demand response. → New Zealand's energy policy should include innovation and development of VDR programmes and technologies.

Long-term and seasonal dynamics of dengue in Iquitos, Peru.

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Steven T Stoddard

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Long-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4 that potentially affect over half the world's population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data.We studied 10 years (2000-2010 of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases.Transmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001-2007 then DENV-4 (2008-2010. After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of ∼ 70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season.Dengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos.

Seasonality of Mansonia titillans during dam construction, Biritiba-Mirim, São Paulo State, Brazil

OpenAIRE

D'Avila,Frederico Alves; Gomes,Almério de Castro

2013-01-01

A two and a half year survey was conducted at a dam in southeastern Brazil. Shannon Traps were used for sampling. Kruskal-Wallis test showed little relation between rainfall and abundance. The data clearly show three abundance peaks, all of them in the end of the dry season, in consonance with the scarce literature existent. Although Kruskal-Wallis Test did not find a clear preference for the dry season, Pairwise Wilcoxon Rank Test revealed a significant difference between Fall and Spring sam...

Costs of Reproduction in Breeding Female Mallards: Predation Risk during Incubation Drives Annual Mortality

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Todd W. Arnold

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The effort expended on reproduction may entail future costs, such as reduced survival or fecundity, and these costs can have an important influence on life-history optimization. For birds with precocial offspring, hypothesized costs of reproduction have typically emphasized nutritional and energetic investments in egg formation and incubation. We measured seasonal survival of 3856 radio-marked female Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos from arrival on the breeding grounds through brood-rearing or cessation of breeding. There was a 2.5-fold direct increase in mortality risk associated with incubating nests in terrestrial habitats, whereas during brood-rearing when breeding females occupy aquatic habitats, mortality risk reached seasonal lows. Mortality risk also varied with calendar date and was highest during periods when large numbers of Mallards were nesting, suggesting that prey-switching behaviors by common predators may exacerbate risks to adults in all breeding stages. Although prior investments in egg laying and incubation affected mortality risk, most relationships were not consistent with the cost of reproduction hypothesis; birds with extensive prior investments in egg production or incubation typically survived better, suggesting that variation in individual quality drove both relationships. We conclude that for breeding female Mallards, the primary cost of reproduction is a fixed cost associated with placing oneself at risk to predators while incubating nests in terrestrial habitats.

A comparison of six treatments for controlling mortality of keets in the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A study was conducted to assess ways of controlling guinea keet mortality in the wet season in the Northern Region of Ghana. Seven hundred and twenty day-old local guinea keets were randomly assigned to six treatments namely, antibiotics & standard diet (AS), dewormer and standard diet (DS), antibiotics, dewormer ...

Birth seasonality in Korean Prader-Willi syndrome with chromosome 15 microdeletion

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Aram Yang

2015-03-01

Full Text Available PurposePrader-Willi syndrome (PWS is a well-known genetic disorder, and microdeletion on chromosome 15 is the most common causal mechanism. Several previous studies have suggested that various environmental factors might be related to the pathogenesis of microdeletion in PWS. In this study, we investigated birth seasonality in Korean PWS.MethodsA total of 211 PWS patients born from 1980 to 2014 were diagnosed by methylation polymerase chain reaction at Samsung Medical Center. Of the 211 patients, 138 were born from 2000-2013. Among them, the 74 patients of a deletion group and the 22 patients of a maternal uniparental disomy (UPD group were compared with general populations born from 2000 using the Walter and Elwood method and cosinor analysis.ResultsThere was no statistical significance in seasonal variation in births of the total 211 patients with PWS (χ2=7.2522, P=0.2982. However, a significant difference was found in the monthly variation between PWS with the deletion group and the at-risk general population (P<0.05. In the cosinor model, the peak month of birth for PWS patients in the deletion group was January, while the nadir occurred in July, with statistical significance (amplitude=0.23, phase=1.2, low point=7.2. The UPD group showed the peak birth month in spring; however, this result was not statistically significant (χ2=3.39, P=0.1836.ConclusionCorrelation with birth seasonality was identified in a deletion group of Korean PWS patients. Further studies are required to identify the mechanism related to seasonal effects of environmental factors on microdeletion on chromosome 15.

Seasonal and Annual Survival of East-Atlantic Pale-Bellied Brent Geese Branta hrota Assessed by Capture-Recapture Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clausen, P.; Frederiksen, M.; Percival, S. M.

2001-01-01

areas by intensive field studies. In this paper we use standard capture-recapture analysis to investigate seasonal and annual survival rates of the population. We divided the year into three periods with different spatial distribution of the geese, autumn (September-December), winter (Jan...... spring to autumn (0.982 MSR), -resulting in an overall annual survival rate of 0.870. We discuss the variation in seasonal and annual mortality rates in relation to constraints faced by the birds such as seasonal changes in availability of food resources, severe winters, long-distance migration...

Land Surface Phenologies and Seasonalities of Croplands and Grasslands in the US Prairie Pothole Region Using Passive Microwave Data (2003-2015)

Science.gov (United States)

Alemu, W. G.; Henebry, G. M.

2017-12-01

Grasslands and wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) have been converted to croplands in recent years. Crops cultivated in the PPR are also changing: spring wheat and alfalfa/hay are being switched to corn and soybean due to biofuel demand. According to the USDA Cropland Data Layer (CDL) from 2003 to 2015, spring wheat significantly decreased (r2 = 0.74), while corn and soybeans significantly increased (r2 = 0.86). We characterized land surface phenologies and land surface seasonalities across the PPR using the finer temporal (twice daily) but much lower spatial (25 km) resolution Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR: blended from AMSR-E and AMSR2) enhanced land surface parameters for 2003-2015 (DOY 91-330 annual cycles). We tracked the temporal development of these land surface parameters as a function of accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD) based on the AMSR retrieved air temperature data. Growing degree-days (GDD) revealed distinct seasonality typical to temperate grasslands and croplands. GDD peaks were 23°C and it peaks at 1700°C AGDD. Precipitable water vapor (V) displayed seasonality comparable to GDD. Vegetation optical depth (VOD) revealed distinct land surface phenologies for grasslands versus croplands. We explored the changing crop fractions within the 25 km AMSR pixels using the CDL. Crop-dominated sites VOD time series caught the early spring growth, ploughing, and crop growth dynamics. In contrast, the VOD time series at grass-dominated sites exhibited a lower but more extended amplitude throughout the non-frozen season. VODs peaked at 1.6 and 1.3 for croplands and grasslands, respectively. Croplands peaked about a month later than grasslands (2200 °C AGDD vs. 1600 °C AGDD). The other parameters available from the AMSR dataset—soil moisture (sm), and fractional open water (fw)—together with the AGDD time series constructed from the AMSR air temperature data revealed the passage of storm systems during the growing season. Soil

Using movement behaviour to define biological seasons for woodland caribou

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Tyler D. Rudolph

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Terrestrial mammals are strongly influenced by seasonal changes in environmental conditions. Studies of animal space use behaviour are therefore inherently seasonal in nature. We propose an individual-based quantitative method for identifying seasonal shifts in caribou movement behaviour and we demonstrate its use in determining the onset of the winter, spring dispersal, and calving seasons. Using pooled data for the population we demonstrate an alternate approach using polynomial regression with mixed effects. We then compare individual onset dates with population-based estimates and those adopted by expert consensus for our study area. Distributions of individual-based onset dates were normally distributed with prominent modes; however, there was considerable variation in individual onset times. Population-based estimates were closer to the peaks of individual estimates than were expert-based estimates, which fell outside the onetailed 90% and 95% sample quantiles of individually-fitted distributions for spring and winter, respectively. Both expertand population-based estimates were later for winter and earlier for both spring and calving than were individual-based estimates. We discuss the potential consequences of neglecting to corroborate conventionally used dates with observed seasonal trends in movement behaviour. In closing, we recommend researchers adopt an individual-based quantitative approach and a variable temporal window for data set extraction.

Seasonal dynamics of butterfly population in DAE Campus, Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu, India

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K.J. Hussain

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Seasonal population trends of butterflies inhabiting the campus of Department of Atomic Energy (DAE at Kalpakkam were recorded by setting a permanent line transect of 300m and recording all species of butterflies observed within a 5m distance. The survey yielded 2177 individuals of 56 butterfly species, belonging to the families Nymphalidae, Pieridae, Lycaenidae, Papilionidae and Hesperiidae. Nymphalidae were found to be the dominant family during all seasons. Species richness and abundance were highest during the northeast monsoon and winter periods, indicating that in the southern plains of India butterflies prefer cool seasons for breeding and emergence. The taxonomic structure of the butterflies sampled resembles that of the Western Ghats and other regions of India in two ways: (a dominance of nymphalids and (b peak abundance during wet seasons. A detailed study of ecologically important local butterfly fauna and their host plants is in progress, to construct a butterfly garden in Kalpakkam to attract and support butterflies.

Seasonal Variations of Atmospheric CO2 over Fire Affected Regions Based on GOSAT Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Y.; Matsunaga, T.

2016-12-01

Abstract: The carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions released from biomass burning significantly affect the temporal variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Based on a long-term (July 2009-June 2015) retrieved datasets by the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), the seasonal cycle and interannual variations of column-averaged volume mixing ratios of atmospheric carbon dioxide (XCO2) in four fire affected continental regions were investigated. The results showed Northern Africa had the largest seasonal variations after removing its regional long-term trend of XCO2 with peak-to-peak amplitude of 6.2 ppm within the year, higher than central South America (2.4 ppm), Southern Africa (3.8 ppm) and Australia (1.7 ppm). The detrended regional XCO2 was found to be positively correlated with the fire CO2 emissions during fire activity period and negatively correlated with vegetation photosynthesis activity with different seasonal variabilities. Northern Africa recorded the largest change of seasonal variations of detrended XCO2 with a total of 12.8 ppm during fire seasons, higher than central South America, Southern Africa and Australia with 5.4 ppm, 6.7 ppm and 2.2 ppm, respectively. During fire episode, the positive detrended XCO2 was noticed during June-November in central South America, December-June in Northern Africa, May-November in Southern Africa. The Pearson correlation coefficients between the variations of detrended XCO2 and fire CO2 emissions from GFED4 (Global Fire Emissions Database v4) achieved best correlations in Southern Africa (R=0.77, p<0.05). Meanwhile, Southern Africa also experienced a significant negative relationship between the variations of detrended XCO2 and vegetation activity (R=-0.84, p<0.05). This study revealed that fire CO2 emissions and vegetation activity contributed greatly to the seasonal variations of GOSAT XCO2 dataset.

Heat waves in the United States: mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 U.S. communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, G Brooke; Bell, Michelle L

2011-02-01

Devastating health effects from recent heat waves, and projected increases in frequency, duration, and severity of heat waves from climate change, highlight the importance of understanding health consequences of heat waves. We analyzed mortality risk for heat waves in 43 U.S. cities (1987-2005) and investigated how effects relate to heat waves' intensity, duration, or timing in season. Heat waves were defined as ≥ 2 days with temperature ≥ 95th percentile for the community for 1 May through 30 September. Heat waves were characterized by their intensity, duration, and timing in season. Within each community, we estimated mortality risk during each heat wave compared with non-heat wave days, controlling for potential confounders. We combined individual heat wave effect estimates using Bayesian hierarchical modeling to generate overall effects at the community, regional, and national levels. We estimated how heat wave mortality effects were modified by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, timing in season). Nationally, mortality increased 3.74% [95% posterior interval (PI), 2.29-5.22%] during heat waves compared with non-heat wave days. Heat wave mortality risk increased 2.49% for every 1°F increase in heat wave intensity and 0.38% for every 1-day increase in heat wave duration. Mortality increased 5.04% (95% PI, 3.06-7.06%) during the first heat wave of the summer versus 2.65% (95% PI, 1.14-4.18%) during later heat waves, compared with non-heat wave days. Heat wave mortality impacts and effect modification by heat wave characteristics were more pronounced in the Northeast and Midwest compared with the South. We found higher mortality risk from heat waves that were more intense or longer, or those occurring earlier in summer. These findings have implications for decision makers and researchers estimating health effects from climate change.

Do the seasonal forests in northeastern Brazil represent a single floristic unit?

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Rodal, M J N; Barbosa, M R V; Thomas, W W

2008-08-01

Floristic analyses (Principal Component Analysis and Analysis of Group Indicators) at the genus level were employed to characterize and compare seasonal forest formations in northeastern Brazil. The presence--absence of 248 genera of woody plants occurring in 24 floristic surveys was correlated with geomorphology and climatic variables. The analyses were consistent and point to the existence of two floristic groups of seasonal forests in the region, one more closely related to the Atlantic Coastal Forest (mata atlântica) and the other to the xerophytic formations (caatinga) of the region. The driest seasonal forest group experiences more than 8 dry months per year and/or a total annual rainfall of <1000 mm, and is found on the ancient eroded peaks in the semi-arid core and on the western slopes of the Borborema Plateau.

Ultrasonic Transducer Peak-to-Peak Optical Measurement

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Pavel Skarvada

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Possible optical setups for measurement of the peak-to-peak value of an ultrasonic transducer are described in this work. The Michelson interferometer with the calibrated nanopositioner in reference path and laser Doppler vibrometer were used for the basic measurement of vibration displacement. Langevin type of ultrasonic transducer is used for the purposes of Electro-Ultrasonic Nonlinear Spectroscopy (EUNS. Parameters of produced mechanical vibration have to been well known for EUNS. Moreover, a monitoring of mechanical vibration frequency shift with a mass load and sample-transducer coupling is important for EUNS measurement.

Research on Double Price Regulations and Peak Shaving Reserve Mechanism in Coal-Electricity Supply Chain

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Hongjun Peng

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The game models were used to study the mechanism of coal-electricity price conflict under conditions of double price regulations of coal and electricity. Based on this, the peak shaving reserve mechanism was designed to probe into the countermeasures against the coal-electricity price conflicts. The study revealed that in the boom seasons of coal demand, the initiatives of the coal enterprises to supply thermal coal and the electricity enterprises to order thermal coal are reduced under conditions of double price regulations. However, under the circumstances of coal price marketization, in the boom seasons of coal demand the thermal coal price may go up obviously, the initiatives of the coal enterprises to supply thermal coal are increased, and meanwhile the initiatives of the power enterprises to order thermal coal are decreased dramatically. The transportation capacity constraint of coal supply leads to the evident decrease of the initiatives of coal enterprises for the thermal coal supply. The mechanism of peak shaving reserve of thermal coal may not only reduce the price of coal market but also increase the enthusiasm of the power enterprises to order more thermal coal and the initiatives of the coal enterprises to supply more thermal coal.

Statistical process control of mortality series in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) adult patient database: implications of the data generating process.

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Moran, John L; Solomon, Patricia J

2013-05-24

Statistical process control (SPC), an industrial sphere initiative, has recently been applied in health care and public health surveillance. SPC methods assume independent observations and process autocorrelation has been associated with increase in false alarm frequency. Monthly mean raw mortality (at hospital discharge) time series, 1995-2009, at the individual Intensive Care unit (ICU) level, were generated from the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database. Evidence for series (i) autocorrelation and seasonality was demonstrated using (partial)-autocorrelation ((P)ACF) function displays and classical series decomposition and (ii) "in-control" status was sought using risk-adjusted (RA) exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control limits (3 sigma). Risk adjustment was achieved using a random coefficient (intercept as ICU site and slope as APACHE III score) logistic regression model, generating an expected mortality series. Application of time-series to an exemplar complete ICU series (1995-(end)2009) was via Box-Jenkins methodology: autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and (G)ARCH ((Generalised) Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models, the latter addressing volatility of the series variance. The overall data set, 1995-2009, consisted of 491324 records from 137 ICU sites; average raw mortality was 14.07%; average(SD) raw and expected mortalities ranged from 0.012(0.113) and 0.013(0.045) to 0.296(0.457) and 0.278(0.247) respectively. For the raw mortality series: 71 sites had continuous data for assessment up to or beyond lag40 and 35% had autocorrelation through to lag40; and of 36 sites with continuous data for ≥ 72 months, all demonstrated marked seasonality. Similar numbers and percentages were seen with the expected series. Out-of-control signalling was evident for the raw mortality series with respect to RA-EWMA control limits; a seasonal ARMA model, with GARCH effects, displayed white-noise residuals

Seasonal dynamics of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus L.) populations spawning in the vicinity of marginal habitats.

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Eggers, Florian; Slotte, Aril; Libungan, Lísa Anne; Johannessen, Arne; Kvamme, Cecilie; Moland, Even; Olsen, Esben M; Nash, Richard D M

2014-01-01

Gillnet sampling and analyses of otolith shape, vertebral count and growth indicated the presence of three putative Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus L.) populations mixing together over the spawning season February-June inside and outside an inland brackish water lake (Landvikvannet) in southern Norway. Peak spawning of oceanic Norwegian spring spawners and coastal Skagerrak spring spawners occurred in March-April with small proportions of spawners entering the lake. In comparison, spawning of Landvik herring peaked in May-June with high proportions found inside the lake, which could be explained by local adaptations to the environmental conditions and seasonal changes of this marginal habitat. The 1.85 km(2) lake was characterized by oxygen depletion occurring between 2.5 and 5 m depth between March and June. This was followed by changes in salinity from 1-7‰ in the 0-1 m surface layer to levels of 20-25‰ deeper than 10 m. In comparison, outside the 3 km long narrow channel connecting the lake with the neighboring fjord, no anoxic conditions were found. Here salinity in the surface layer increased over the season from 10 to 25‰, whereas deeper than 5 m it was stable at around 35‰. Temperature at 0-5 m depth increased significantly over the season in both habitats, from 7 to 14 °C outside and 5 to 17 °C inside the lake. Despite differences in peak spawning and utilization of the lake habitat between the three putative populations, there was an apparent temporal and spatial overlap in spawning stages suggesting potential interbreeding in accordance with the metapopulation concept.

Seasonal dynamics of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus L. populations spawning in the vicinity of marginal habitats.

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Florian Eggers

Full Text Available Gillnet sampling and analyses of otolith shape, vertebral count and growth indicated the presence of three putative Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus L. populations mixing together over the spawning season February-June inside and outside an inland brackish water lake (Landvikvannet in southern Norway. Peak spawning of oceanic Norwegian spring spawners and coastal Skagerrak spring spawners occurred in March-April with small proportions of spawners entering the lake. In comparison, spawning of Landvik herring peaked in May-June with high proportions found inside the lake, which could be explained by local adaptations to the environmental conditions and seasonal changes of this marginal habitat. The 1.85 km(2 lake was characterized by oxygen depletion occurring between 2.5 and 5 m depth between March and June. This was followed by changes in salinity from 1-7‰ in the 0-1 m surface layer to levels of 20-25‰ deeper than 10 m. In comparison, outside the 3 km long narrow channel connecting the lake with the neighboring fjord, no anoxic conditions were found. Here salinity in the surface layer increased over the season from 10 to 25‰, whereas deeper than 5 m it was stable at around 35‰. Temperature at 0-5 m depth increased significantly over the season in both habitats, from 7 to 14 °C outside and 5 to 17 °C inside the lake. Despite differences in peak spawning and utilization of the lake habitat between the three putative populations, there was an apparent temporal and spatial overlap in spawning stages suggesting potential interbreeding in accordance with the metapopulation concept.

Seasonal and spatial variability of surface ozone over China: contributions from background and domestic pollution

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Y. Wang

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Both observations and a 3-D chemical transport model suggest that surface ozone over populated eastern China features a summertime trough and that the month when surface ozone peaks differs by latitude and region. Source-receptor analysis is used to quantify the contributions of background ozone and Chinese anthropogenic emissions on this variability. Annual mean background ozone over China shows a spatial gradient from 55 ppbv in the northwest to 20 ppbv in the southeast, corresponding with changes in topography and ozone lifetime. Pollution background ozone (annual mean of 12.6 ppbv shows a minimum in the summer and maximum in the spring. On the monthly-mean basis, Chinese pollution ozone (CPO has a peak of 20–25 ppbv in June north of the Yangtze River and in October south of it, which explains the peaks of surface ozone in these months. The summertime trough in surface ozone over eastern China can be explained by the decrease of background ozone from spring to summer (by −15 ppbv regionally averaged over eastern China. Tagged simulations suggest that long-range transport of ozone from northern mid-latitude continents (including Europe and North America reaches a minimum in the summer, whereas ozone from Southeast Asia exhibits a maximum in the summer over eastern China. This contrast in seasonality provides clear evidence that the seasonal switch in monsoonal wind patterns plays a significant role in determining the seasonality of background ozone over China.

Changes in Peak Flow Value during Immunotherapy Administration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saporta, D.

2012-01-01

Nasal allergies are prevalent affecting a large percentage of the population. Not only the upper respiratory tract but the whole body is involved. Allergies produce morbidity (and even occasional mortality) as they can lead to asthma development, and increased number of accidents. Immunotherapy results can be evaluated by following symptom scores, medication use, and objective measurements. Using a Peak Flow Meter (Pf) to evaluate immunotherapy results, it became evident that patients with and without asthma exhibited an improvement in the Peak Flow (PF) value, suggesting that lower airway involvement in allergic patients could be more prevalent than assumed. A consecutive chart review was performed including patients of any age with nasal allergies (with or without asthma) treated with immunotherapy for at least 6 months that had at least 2 complete evaluations. When immunotherapy was successful, most patients exhibited an increase in the PF value regardless of asthma status. A very significant finding was that most allergy sufferers may have lower airway inflammation. The use of the PF value to assess immunotherapy results and the potential failure to diagnose asthma in allergy sufferers are discussed. A better diagnosis of lower airway inflammation could be substantial in the management of these patients pulmonary function

The impact of heat waves on mortality in seven major cities in Korea.

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Son, Ji-Young; Lee, Jong-Tae; Anderson, G Brooke; Bell, Michelle L

2012-04-01

Understanding the health impacts of heat waves is important, especially given anticipated increases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves due to climate change. We examined mortality from heat waves in seven major Korean cities for 2000 through 2007 and investigated effect modification by individual characteristics and heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season). Heat waves were defined as ≥ 2 consecutive days with daily mean temperature at or above the 98th percentile for the warm season in each city. We compared mortality during heat-wave days and non-heat-wave days using city-specific generalized linear models. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate overall effects within and across all cities. In addition, we estimated effects of heat wave characteristics and effects according to cause of death and examined effect modification by individual characteristics for Seoul. Overall, total mortality increased 4.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): -6.1%, 15.4%] during heat waves compared with non-heat-wave days, with an 8.4% increase (95% CI: 0.1%, 17.3%) estimated for Seoul. Estimated mortality was higher for heat waves that were more intense, longer, or earlier in summer, although effects were not statistically significant. Estimated risks were higher for women versus men, older versus younger residents, those with no education versus some education, and deaths that occurred out of hospitals in Seoul, although differences among strata of individual characteristics were not statistically significant. Our findings support evidence of mortality impacts from heat waves and have implications for efforts to reduce the public health burden of heat waves.

NEW SEASON NEW HOPES: OFF-SEASON OPTIMISM

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Oguz Ersan

2017-12-01

Full Text Available While literature on the relation between on-field sports performance and stock returns is ample, there is very limited evidence on off-season stage. Constituting around 3 months, off-seasons do not only occupy a significant part of the year but also represent totally different characteristics than on-seasons. They lack the periodic, unambiguous news events in on-seasons (match results, instead they are associated with highly uncertain transfer news and rumors. We show that this distinction has several impacts on the stock market performances of soccer clubs. Most notably, off-seasons generate substantially higher (excess returns. After controlling for other variables, the estimated effect of off-season periods is as high as 38.75%, annually. In line with several seminal studies, we link this fact to increased optimism and betting behavior through uncertain periods; and periods prior to the start of a new calendar (in our case, new season. For all of the examined 7 clubs (3 from Italy and 4 from Turkey, mean excess returns over the market are positive (negative in off-seasons (on-seasons. On-seasons are associated with increased trading activity due to more frequent news. Stocks of Italian clubs are evidently more volatile through off-seasons while volatility results for the stocks of Turkish clubs are not consistent.

Mars methane rises and falls with the seasons

Science.gov (United States)

Hand, Eric

2018-01-01

On Earth, atmospheric methane is a prominent sign of life. On Mars, the story is more complicated. Trace detections of methane, alongside glimpses of larger spikes, have fueled debates about biological and nonbiological sources of the gas. Now, NASA scientists have announced a new twist in the tale: Methane regularly rises to a peak in late northern summer in a seasonal pattern. The swings are larger than can be explained by the planet's seasonal freeze-thaw cycles. The wiggles are a mystery within a larger mystery: claims of methane spikes an order of magnitude or two higher than the background. Some scientists say meteor showers could be responsible, by depositing carbonaceous material in the atmosphere that reacts to form methane. A close encounter on 24 January with debris from a comet could provide a chance to test the hypothesis.

Seasonal dynamics of water use efficiency of typical forest and grassland ecosystems in China

CERN Document Server

Zhu, Xianjin; Wang, Qiufeng; Hu, Zhongmin; Han, Shijie; Yan, Junhua; Wang, Yanfen; Zhao, Liang

2014-01-01

We selected four sites of ChinaFLUX representing four major ecosystem types in China-Changbaishan temperate broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest (CBS), Dinghushan subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest (DHS), Inner Mongolia temperate steppe (NM), and Haibei alpine shrub-meadow (HBGC)-to study the seasonal dynamics of ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE = GPP/ET, where GPP is gross primary productivity and ET is evapotranspiration) and factors affecting it. Our seasonal dynamics results indicated single-peak variation of WUE in CBS, NM, and HBGC, which were affected by air temperature (Ta) and leaf area index (LAI), through their effects on the partitioning of evapotranspiration (ET) into transpiration (T) (i.e., T/ET). In DHS, WUE was higher at the beginning and the end of the year, and minimum in summer. Ta and soil water content affected the seasonal dynamics of WUE through their effects on GPP/T. Our results indicate that seasonal dynamics of WUE were different because factors affecting the seasonal dyn...

Phenology of two Ficus species in seasonal semi-deciduous forest in Southern Brazil

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E. Bianchini

Full Text Available Abstract We analyzed the phenology of Ficus adhatodifolia Schott ex Spreng. (23 fig tree and F. eximia Schott (12 fig tree for 74 months in a remnant of seasonal semi-deciduous forest (23°27’S and 51°15’W, Southern Brazil and discussed their importance to frugivorous. Leaf drop, leaf flush, syconia production and dispersal were recorded. These phenophases occurred year-round, but seasonal peaks were recorded in both leaf phenophases for F. eximia and leaf flushing for F. adhatodifolia. Climatic variables analyzed were positively correlated with reproductive phenophases of F. adhatodifolia and negatively correlated with the vegetative phenophases of F. eximia. In despite of environmental seasonality, little seasonality in the phenology of two species was observed, especially in the reproductive phenology. Both species were important to frugivorous, but F. adhatodifolia can play a relevant role in the remnant.

Daily and seasonal activity patterns of free range South-American rattlesnake (Crotalus durissus).

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Tozetti, Alexandro M; Martins, Marcio

2013-09-01

This study aimed at describing daily and seasonal variation in the activity of a population of South-American rattlesnakes (Crotalus durissus) in a savanna like habitat (Cerrado) in Southeastern Brazil. Seasonal and daily activities of snakes were evaluated by the number of captures of snakes during road surveys, accidental encounters, and relocations by radio-tracking. Our results show that climatic variables such as air temperature and rainfall have little influence on the activity pattern of rattlesnakes. Our findings indicate that rattlesnakes spend most of the day resting and most of the night in ambush posture. The South-American rattlesnake is active throughout the year with a discrete peak in activity of males during the matting season. The possibility of maintaining activity levels even during the coldest and driest season can facilitate the colonization of several habitats in South America. This possibility currently facilitates the colonization of deforested areas by rattlesnakes.

Proxy of monsoon seasonality in carbon isotopes from paleosols of the southern Chinese Loess Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hongfang; Follmer, L.R.

1998-01-01

Soil organic matter (SOM) and soil carbonate (SC) are common constituents in soils and are directly related to plant growth. SOM accumulates gradually from the decomposition of plant material over time, whereas SC formation is biased to dry-season soil-dissolved CO2 that derives from plant respiration during a drying phase of the growing season. In some mixed C3-C4 environments, the peak of C3 and C4 plant metabolism differs seasonally, and the carbon source that contributes to the SOM and SC can be different. Consequently, ??13C(SOM) values reflect an annual average of the floral biomass, but ??13C(SC) values reflect a seasonal aspect of the plant community. The relationship between ??13C(SC) and ??13C(SOM) is mainly controlled by how different the seasonal conditions are. Our results suggest that the relationship is a seasonal proxy that can be used to differentiate the seasonality effects of Indian, East Asian, and Siberian monsoons on the Chinese Loess Plateau during the last interglacial-glacial cycle.

Influenza Seasonal Summary, 2014-2015 Season

Science.gov (United States)

2015-08-14

Influenza Seasonal Summarv 2014-2015 Season EpiData Center Department Communicable Disease Division NMCPHC-EDC-TR-394-2015 REPORT DOCUMENTATION... Influenza Seasonal Summary, 2014-2015 Season Sb. GRANT NUMBER $c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHORjS) Sd. PROJECT NUMBER Ashleigh K McCabe, Kristen R...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 1<l. ABSTRACT This report summartzes influenza activity among Department of Navy (DON) and Depar1ment of Defense (DOD

Global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR project: a modeling study.

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Lone Simonsen

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09 is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries.We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005-2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%-85% were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000-249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons <65 y. Limitations include lack of representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010-2012.We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons <65 y of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost. The burden varied greatly among countries, corroborating early reports of far greater pandemic severity in the Americas than in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. A

Seasonal variation of deep-sea bioluminescence in the Ionian Sea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Craig, Jessica; Jamieson, Alan J.; Bagley, Philip M.; Priede, Imants G.

2011-01-01

The ICDeep (Image Intensified Charge Coupled Device for Deep sea research) profiler was used to measure the density of deep bioluminescent animals (BL) through the water column in the east, west and mid-Ionian Sea and in the Algerian Basin. A west to east decrease in BL density was found. Generalized additive modelling was used to investigate seasonal variation in the east and west Ionian Sea (NESTOR and NEMO neutrino telescope sites, respectively) from BL measurements in autumn 2008 and spring 2009. A significant seasonal effect was found in the west Ionian Sea (p<0.001), where a deep autumnal peak in BL density occurred between 500 and 2400 m. No significant seasonal variation in BL density was found in the east Ionian Sea (p=0.07). In both spring and autumn, significant differences in BL density were found through the water column between the east and west Ionian Sea (p<0.001).

Seasonal variation of deep-sea bioluminescence in the Ionian Sea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Craig, Jessica, E-mail: j.craig@abdn.ac.u [University of Aberdeen, Oceanlab, Main Street, Newburgh, Aberdeenshire, AB41 6AA (United Kingdom); Jamieson, Alan J.; Bagley, Philip M.; Priede, Imants G. [University of Aberdeen, Oceanlab, Main Street, Newburgh, Aberdeenshire, AB41 6AA (United Kingdom)

2011-01-21

The ICDeep (Image Intensified Charge Coupled Device for Deep sea research) profiler was used to measure the density of deep bioluminescent animals (BL) through the water column in the east, west and mid-Ionian Sea and in the Algerian Basin. A west to east decrease in BL density was found. Generalized additive modelling was used to investigate seasonal variation in the east and west Ionian Sea (NESTOR and NEMO neutrino telescope sites, respectively) from BL measurements in autumn 2008 and spring 2009. A significant seasonal effect was found in the west Ionian Sea (p<0.001), where a deep autumnal peak in BL density occurred between 500 and 2400 m. No significant seasonal variation in BL density was found in the east Ionian Sea (p=0.07). In both spring and autumn, significant differences in BL density were found through the water column between the east and west Ionian Sea (p<0.001).

Control strategies for a stochastic model of host-parasite interaction in a seasonal environment.

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Gómez-Corral, A; López García, M

2014-08-07

We examine a nonlinear stochastic model for the parasite load of a single host over a predetermined time interval. We use nonhomogeneous Poisson processes to model the acquisition of parasites, the parasite-induced host mortality, the natural (no parasite-induced) host mortality, and the reproduction and death of parasites within the host. Algebraic results are first obtained on the age-dependent distribution of the number of parasites infesting the host at an arbitrary time t. The interest is in control strategies based on isolation of the host and the use of an anthelmintic at a certain intervention instant t0. This means that the host is free living in a seasonal environment, and it is transferred to a uninfected area at age t0. In the uninfected area, the host does not acquire new parasites, undergoes a treatment to decrease the parasite load, and its natural and parasite-induced mortality are altered. For a suitable selection of t0, we present two control criteria that appropriately balance effectiveness and cost of intervention. Our approach is based on simple probabilistic principles, and it allows us to examine seasonal fluctuations of gastrointestinal nematode burden in growing lambs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality displacement as a function of heat event strength in 7 US cities.

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, Michael V; Davis, Robert E; Hondula, David M

2014-02-15

Mortality rates increase immediately after periods of high air temperature. In the days and weeks after heat events, time series may exhibit mortality displacement-periods of lower than expected mortality. We examined all-cause mortality and meteorological data from 1980 to 2009 in the cities of Atlanta, Georgia; Boston, Massachusetts; Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Phoenix, Arizona; Seattle, Washington; and St. Louis, Missouri. We modeled baseline mortality using a generalized additive model. Heat waves were defined as periods of 3 or more consecutive days in which the apparent temperature exceeded a variable percentile. For each heat wave, we calculated the sum of excess and deficit mortality. Mortality displacement, which is the ratio of grand sum deficit to grand sum excess mortality, decreased as a function of event strength in all cities. Displacement was close to 1.00 for the weakest events. At the highest temperatures, displacement varied from 0.35 (95% confidence interval: 0.21, 0.55) to 0.75 (95% confidence interval: 0.54, 0.97). We found strong evidence of acclimatization across cities. Without consideration of displacement effects, the net impacts of heat-wave mortality are likely to be significant overestimations. A statistically significant positive relationship between the onset temperature of nondisplaced heat mortality and mean warm-season temperature (R(2) = 0.78, P < 0.01) suggests that heat mortality thresholds may be predictable across cities.

Breeding phenology of birds: mechanisms underlying seasonal declines in the risk of nest predation.

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Kathi L Borgmann

Full Text Available Seasonal declines in avian clutch size are well documented, but seasonal variation in other reproductive parameters has received less attention. For example, the probability of complete brood mortality typically explains much of the variation in reproductive success and often varies seasonally, but we know little about the underlying cause of that variation. This oversight is surprising given that nest predation influences many other life-history traits and varies throughout the breeding season in many songbirds. To determine the underlying causes of observed seasonal decreases in risk of nest predation, we modeled nest predation of Dusky Flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri in northern California as a function of foliage phenology, energetic demand, developmental stage, conspecific nest density, food availability for nest predators, and nest predator abundance. Seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was not associated with seasonal changes in energetic demand, conspecific nest density, or predator abundance. Instead, seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was associated with foliage density (early, but not late, in the breeding season and seasonal changes in food available to nest predators. Supplemental food provided to nest predators resulted in a numerical response by nest predators, increasing the risk of nest predation at nests that were near supplemental feeders. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foliage density and factors associated with changes in food availability for nest predators are important drivers of temporal patterns in risk of avian nest predation.

Breeding phenology of birds: mechanisms underlying seasonal declines in the risk of nest predation.

Science.gov (United States)

Borgmann, Kathi L; Conway, Courtney J; Morrison, Michael L

2013-01-01

Seasonal declines in avian clutch size are well documented, but seasonal variation in other reproductive parameters has received less attention. For example, the probability of complete brood mortality typically explains much of the variation in reproductive success and often varies seasonally, but we know little about the underlying cause of that variation. This oversight is surprising given that nest predation influences many other life-history traits and varies throughout the breeding season in many songbirds. To determine the underlying causes of observed seasonal decreases in risk of nest predation, we modeled nest predation of Dusky Flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri) in northern California as a function of foliage phenology, energetic demand, developmental stage, conspecific nest density, food availability for nest predators, and nest predator abundance. Seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was not associated with seasonal changes in energetic demand, conspecific nest density, or predator abundance. Instead, seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was associated with foliage density (early, but not late, in the breeding season) and seasonal changes in food available to nest predators. Supplemental food provided to nest predators resulted in a numerical response by nest predators, increasing the risk of nest predation at nests that were near supplemental feeders. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foliage density and factors associated with changes in food availability for nest predators are important drivers of temporal patterns in risk of avian nest predation.

The Effect of Seasonal Variability of Atlantic Water on the Arctic Sea Ice Cover

Science.gov (United States)

Ivanov, V. V.; Repina, I. A.

2018-01-01

Under the influence of global warming, the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean (AO) is expected to reduce with a transition toward a seasonal ice cover by the end of this century. A comparison of climate-model predictions with measurements shows that the actual rate of ice cover decay in the AO is higher than the predicted one. This paper argues that the rapid shrinking of the Arctic summer ice cover is due to its increased seasonality, while seasonal oscillations of the Atlantic origin water temperature create favorable conditions for the formation of negative anomalies in the ice-cover area in winter. The basis for this hypothesis is the fundamental possibility of the activation of positive feedback provided by a specific feature of the seasonal cycle of the inflowing Atlantic origin water and the peaking of temperature in the Nansen Basin in midwinter. The recently accelerated reduction in the summer ice cover in the AO leads to an increased accumulation of heat in the upper ocean layer during the summer season. The extra heat content of the upper ocean layer favors prerequisite conditions for winter thermohaline convection and the transfer of heat from the Atlantic water (AW) layer to the ice cover. This, in turn, contributes to further ice thinning and a decrease in ice concentration, accelerated melting in summer, and a greater accumulation of heat in the ocean by the end of the following summer. An important role is played by the seasonal variability of the temperature of AW, which forms on the border between the North European and Arctic basins. The phase of seasonal oscillation changes while the AW is moving through the Nansen Basin. As a result, the timing of temperature peak shifts from summer to winter, additionally contributing to enhanced ice melting in winter. The formulated theoretical concept is substantiated by a simplified mathematical model and comparison with observations.

SEASONAL OCCURRENCE OF GASTROINTESTINAL HELMINTH PARASITES IN CATTLE AND BUFFALOES IN BANKURA DISTRICT, WEST BENGAL, INDIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Shit

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Parasitic infestation is a major constraint of livestock and causes great economic loss to animal husbandry by the way of retarded growth, low productivity and increased susceptibility of animals to other infections. In view of the parasitism, the present study was aimed to elucidate the incidence of gastrointestinal (GI helminth parasites in cattle and buffaloes in Bankura district, West Bengal. A total of 1200 fecal samples (200 samples/ species/season were collected directly from the farmers’ end in three different seasons namely winter, summer and rainy seasons. The stool samples were examined initially by direct smear followed by sedimentation and floatation techniques within 24h of collection. All three major parasites i.e. nematode (Toxocara, Strongyloides, Strongyle and Trichuris, cestode (Moniezia and trematode (Paramphistomes and Fasciola were observed and analyzed based on the morphology of eggs. The degree of incidence was superior in buffaloes compared to the cattle irrespective of the seasonal variations. The rainy season showed the highest degree of parasitic occurrence (67.00% compared to winter (52.25 and summer (38.75% seasons. The study of species-wise incidence demonstrated a highest peak of Paramphistomes (32.17% where very few samples were positive for Trichuris sp. (2.42%. Among the sub-divisions, Bishnupur represented the maximum occurrence of helminth parasites (62.05% as compared to Bankura sadar (58.47% and Khatra (40.16%. Significantly (P<0.05 higher percent of trematode and nematodes were prevalent in Bishnupur though the same observation was manifested for cestodal infection in Khatra. It can be concluded that a favorable hot and humid condition during rainy season favors the growth of propagation of developmental stages which would be the reason of peak prevalence. It can also be focused that a micro level agro-climatic disparity may lead to the variation within the study sites.

Photosynthetic responses of C3 and C4 species to seasonal water variability and competition.

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, Shuli; Yuan, Zhiyou; Zhang, Yanfang; Liu, Weixing; Zhang, Lei; Huang, Jianhui; Wan, Shiqiang

2005-11-01

This study examined the impacts of seasonal water variability and interspecific competition on the photosynthetic characteristics of a C3 (Leymus chinensis) and a C4 (Chloris virgata) grass species. Plants received the same amount of water but in three seasonal patterns, i.e. the one-peak model (more water in the summer than in the spring and autumn), the two-peak model (more water in the spring and autumn than in the summer), and the average model (water evenly distributed over the growing season). The effects of water variability on the photosynthetic characteristics of the C3 and C4 species were dependent on season. There were significant differences in the photosynthetic characteristics of the C4 species in the summer and the C3 species in the autumn among the three water treatments. Interspecific competition exerted negative impacts on the C3 species in August and September but had no effects on the C4 species in any of the four measuring dates. The relative competitive capability of the two species was not altered by water availability. The assimilation rate, the maximum quantum yield of net CO2 assimilation, and the maximum rate of carboxylation of the C3 species were 13-56%, 5-11%, and 11-48% greater, respectively, in a monoculture than in a mixture in August and September. The results demonstrated that the photosynthetic characteristics of the C3 and C4 species were affected by water availability, but the effects varied considerably with season.

Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation and Morbidity and Mortality-Related Factors: a 5-Year Experience in Brazil

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André Luiz Silveira Souza

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation has become an option for high-surgical-risk patients with aortic valve disease. Objective: To evaluate the in-hospital and one-year follow-up outcomes of transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Methods: Prospective cohort study of transcatheter aortic valve implantation cases from July 2009 to February 2015. Analysis of clinical and procedural variables, correlating them with in-hospital and one-year mortality. Results: A total of 136 patients with a mean age of 83 years (80-87 underwent heart valve implantation; of these, 49% were women, 131 (96.3% had aortic stenosis, one (0.7% had aortic regurgitation and four (2.9% had prosthetic valve dysfunction. NYHA functional class was III or IV in 129 cases (94.8%. The baseline orifice area was 0.67 ± 0.17 cm2 and the mean left ventricular-aortic pressure gradient was 47.3±18.2 mmHg, with an STS score of 9.3% (4.8%-22.3%. The prostheses implanted were self-expanding in 97% of cases. Perioperative mortality was 1.5%; 30-day mortality, 5.9%; in-hospital mortality, 8.1%; and one-year mortality, 15.5%. Blood transfusion (relative risk of 54; p = 0.0003 and pulmonary arterial hypertension (relative risk of 5.3; p = 0.036 were predictive of in-hospital mortality. Peak C-reactive protein (relative risk of 1.8; p = 0.013 and blood transfusion (relative risk of 8.3; p = 0.0009 were predictive of 1-year mortality. At 30 days, 97% of patients were in NYHA functional class I/II; at one year, this figure reached 96%. Conclusion: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation was performed with a high success rate and low mortality. Blood transfusion was associated with higher in-hospital and one-year mortality. Peak C-reactive protein was associated with one-year mortality.

Assessment of end-use electricity consumption and peak demand by Townsville's housing stock

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ren, Zhengen; Paevere, Phillip; Grozev, George; Egan, Stephen; Anticev, Julia

2013-01-01

We have developed a comprehensive model to estimate annual end-use electricity consumption and peak demand of housing stock, considering occupants' use of air conditioning systems and major appliances. The model was applied to analyse private dwellings in Townsville, Australia's largest tropical city. For the financial year (FY) 2010–11 the predicted results agreed with the actual electricity consumption with an error less than 10% for cooling thermostat settings at the standard setting temperature of 26.5 °C and at 1.0 °C higher than the standard setting. The greatest difference in monthly electricity consumption in the summer season between the model and the actual data decreased from 21% to 2% when the thermostat setting was changed from 26.5 °C to 27.5 °C. Our findings also showed that installation of solar panels in Townville houses could reduce electricity demand from the grid and would have a minor impact on the yearly peak demand. A key new feature of the model is that it can be used to predict probability distribution of energy demand considering (a) that appliances may be used randomly and (b) the way people use thermostats. The peak demand for the FY estimated from the probability distribution tracked the actual peak demand at 97% confidence level. - Highlights: • We developed a model to estimate housing stock energy consumption and peak demand. • Appliances used randomly and thermostat settings for space cooling were considered. • On-site installation of solar panels was also considered. • Its' results agree well with the actual electricity consumption and peak demand. • It shows the model could provide the probability distribution of electricity demand

Variation of respiratory syncytial virus and the relation with meteorological factors in different winter seasons.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meerhoff, T.J.; Paget, W.J.; Kimpen, J.L.; Schellevis, F.

2009-01-01

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most important viral agent causing severe respiratory disease in infants and children. In temperate climates, RSV activity typically peaks during winter. We have described the seasonal variation in RSV activity and investigated which

Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control

Science.gov (United States)

Gurarie, D.; King, C. H.; Yoon, N.; Wang, X.; Alsallaq, R.

2017-10-01

A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station: Phase I Results

Science.gov (United States)

Lambert, Winifred C.; Merceret, Francis J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This report describes the results of the ANU's (Applied Meteorology Unit) Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task for peak winds. The peak wind speeds are an important forecast element for the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle programs. The Keith Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group indicate that peak winds are challenging to forecast. The Applied Meteorology Unit was tasked to develop tools that aid in short-range forecasts of peak winds at tower sites of operational interest. A 7 year record of wind tower data was used in the analysis. Hourly and directional climatologies by tower and month were developed to determine the seasonal behavior of the average and peak winds. In all climatologies, the average and peak wind speeds were highly variable in time. This indicated that the development of a peak wind forecasting tool would be difficult. Probability density functions (PDF) of peak wind speed were calculated to determine the distribution of peak speed with average speed. These provide forecasters with a means of determining the probability of meeting or exceeding a certain peak wind given an observed or forecast average speed. The climatologies and PDFs provide tools with which to make peak wind forecasts that are critical to safe operations.

Clostridium difficile infection seasonality: patterns across hemispheres and continents - a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Furuya-Kanamori, Luis; McKenzie, Samantha J; Yakob, Laith; Clark, Justin; Paterson, David L; Riley, Thomas V; Clements, Archie C

2015-01-01

Studies have demonstrated seasonal variability in rates of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). Synthesising all available information on seasonality is a necessary step in identifying large-scale epidemiological patterns and elucidating underlying causes. Three medical and life sciences publication databases were searched from inception to October 2014 for longitudinal epidemiological studies written in English, Spanish or Portuguese that reported the incidence of CDI. The monthly frequency of CDI were extracted, standardized and weighted according to the number of follow-up months. Cross correlation coefficients (XCORR) were calculated to examine the correlation and lag between the year-month frequencies of reported CDI across hemispheres and continents. The search identified 13, 5 and 2 studies from North America, Europe, and Oceania, respectively that met the inclusion criteria. CDI had a similar seasonal pattern in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere characterized by a peak in spring and lower frequencies of CDI in summer/autumn with a lag of 8 months (XCORR = 0.60) between hemispheres. There was no difference between the seasonal patterns across European and North American countries. CDI demonstrates a distinct seasonal pattern that is consistent across North America, Europe and Oceania. Further studies are required to identify the driving factors of the observed seasonality.

The Arctic-Subarctic Sea Ice System is Entering a Seasonal Regime: Implications for Future Arctic Amplication

Science.gov (United States)

Haine, T. W. N.; Martin, T.

2017-12-01

The loss of Arctic sea ice is a conspicuous example of climate change. Climate models project ice-free conditions during summer this century under realistic emission scenarios, reflecting the increase in seasonality in ice cover. To quantify the increased seasonality in the Arctic-Subarctic sea ice system, we define a non-dimensional seasonality number for sea ice extent, area, and volume from satellite data and realistic coupled climate models. We show that the Arctic-Subarctic, i.e. the northern hemisphere, sea ice now exhibits similar levels of seasonality to the Antarctic, which is in a seasonal regime without significant change since satellite observations began in 1979. Realistic climate models suggest that this transition to the seasonal regime is being accompanied by a maximum in Arctic amplification, which is the faster warming of Arctic latitudes compared to the global mean, in the 2010s. The strong link points to a peak in sea-ice-related feedbacks that occurs long before the Arctic becomes ice-free in summer.

Morbidity, Mortality, and Seasonality of Influenza Hospitalizations in Egypt, November 2007-November 2014

OpenAIRE

Kandeel, Amr; Dawson, Patrick; Labib, Manal; Said, Mayar; El-Refai, Samir; El-Gohari, Amani; Talaat, Maha

2016-01-01

Background Influenza typically comprises a substantial portion of acute respiratory infections, a leading cause of mortality worldwide. However, influenza epidemiology data are lacking in Egypt. We describe seven years of Egypt?s influenza hospitalizations from a multi-site influenza surveillance system. Methods Syndromic case definitions identified individuals with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) admitted to eight hospitals in Egypt. Standardized demographic and clinical data were ...

Seasonal migrations, body temperature fluctuations, and infection dynamics in adult amphibians

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David R. Daversa

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Risks of parasitism vary over time, with infection prevalence often fluctuating with seasonal changes in the annual cycle. Identifying the biological mechanisms underlying seasonality in infection can enable better prediction and prevention of future infection peaks. Obtaining longitudinal data on individual infections and traits across seasons throughout the annual cycle is perhaps the most effective means of achieving this aim, yet few studies have obtained such information for wildlife. Here, we tracked spiny common toads (Bufo spinosus within and across annual cycles to assess seasonal variation in movement, body temperatures and infection from the fungal parasite, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd. Across annual cycles, toads did not consistently sustain infections but instead gained and lost infections from year to year. Radio-tracking showed that infected toads lose infections during post-breeding migrations, and no toads contracted infection following migration, which may be one explanation for the inter-annual variability in Bd infections. We also found pronounced seasonal variation in toad body temperatures. Body temperatures approached 0 °C during winter hibernation but remained largely within the thermal tolerance range of Bd. These findings provide direct documentation of migratory recovery (i.e., loss of infection during migration and escape in a wild population. The body temperature reductions that we observed during hibernation warrant further consideration into the role that this period plays in seasonal Bd dynamics.

Assessing spatial associations between thermal stress and mortality in Hong Kong: a small-area ecological study.

Science.gov (United States)

Thach, Thuan-Quoc; Zheng, Qishi; Lai, Poh-Chin; Wong, Paulina Pui-Yun; Chau, Patsy Yuen-Kwan; Jahn, Heiko J; Plass, Dietrich; Katzschner, Lutz; Kraemer, Alexander; Wong, Chit-Ming

2015-01-01

Physiological equivalent temperature (PET) is a widely used index to assess thermal comfort of the human body. Evidence on how thermal stress-related health effects vary with small geographical areas is limited. The objectives of this study are (i) to explore whether there were significant patterns of geographical clustering of thermal stress as measured by PET and mortality and (ii) to assess the association between PET and mortality in small geographical areas. A small area ecological cross-sectional study was conducted at tertiary planning units (TPUs) level. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and monthly deaths at TPUs level for 2006 were calculated for cause-specific diseases. A PET map with 100 m × 100 m resolution for the same period was derived from Hong Kong Urban Climatic Analysis Map data and the annual and monthly averages of PET for each TPU were computed. Global Moran's I and local indicator of spatial association (LISA) analyses were performed. A generalized linear mixed model was used to model monthly deaths against PET adjusted for socio-economic deprivation. We found positive spatial autocorrelation between PET and ASMR. There were spatial correlations between PET and ASMR, particularly in the north of Hong Kong Island, most parts of Kowloon, and across New Territories. A 1°C change in PET was associated with an excess risk (%) of 2.99 (95% CI: 0.50-5.48) for all natural causes, 4.75 (1.14-8.36) for cardiovascular, 7.39 (4.64-10.10) for respiratory diseases in the cool season, and 4.31 (0.12 to 8.50) for cardiovascular diseases in the warm season. Variations between TPUs in PET had an important influence on cause-specific mortality, especially in the cool season. PET may have an impact on the health of socio-economically deprived population groups. Our results suggest that targeting policy interventions at high-risk areas may be a feasible option for reducing PET-related mortality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Do the seasonal forests in northeastern Brazil represent a single floristic unit?

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MJN. Rodal

Full Text Available Floristic analyses (Principal Component Analysis and Analysis of Group Indicators at the genus level were employed to characterize and compare seasonal forest formations in northeastern Brazil. The presence - absence of 248 genera of woody plants occurring in 24 floristic surveys was correlated with geomorphology and climatic variables. The analyses were consistent and point to the existence of two floristic groups of seasonal forests in the region, one more closely related to the Atlantic Coastal Forest (mata atlântica and the other to the xerophytic formations (caatinga of the region. The driest seasonal forest group experiences more than 8 dry months per year and/or a total annual rainfall of <1000 mm, and is found on the ancient eroded peaks in the semi-arid core and on the western slopes of the Borborema Plateau.

Use of a thermocouple-datalogger system to evaluate overstory mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Lucy Brudnak; Thomas A. Waldrop; Ross J. Phillips

2010-01-01

In the past, it was difficult to accurately measure dynamic fire behavior during prescribed burns. Peak temperature, flaming duration, and total heat output may be directly related to first-order fire effects such as fuel consumption and vegetative mortality; however, little is known about which of these variables is most closely associated with, and therefore the best...

Electricity Portfolio Management: Optimal Peak / Off-Peak Allocations

OpenAIRE

Huisman, Ronald; Mahieu, Ronald; Schlichter, Felix

2007-01-01

textabstractElectricity purchasers manage a portfolio of contracts in order to purchase the expected future electricity consumption profile of a company or a pool of clients. This paper proposes a mean-variance framework to address the concept of structuring the portfolio and focuses on how to allocate optimal positions in peak and off-peak forward contracts. It is shown that the optimal allocations are based on the difference in risk premiums per unit of day-ahead risk as a measure of relati...

[Influenza surveillance in nine consecutive seasons, 2003-2012: results from National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Istanbul Faculty Of Medicine, Turkey].

Science.gov (United States)

Akçay Ciblak, Meral; Kanturvardar Tütenyurd, Melis; Asar, Serkan; Tulunoğlu, Merve; Fındıkçı, Nurcihan; Badur, Selim

2012-10-01

Influenza is a public health problem that affects 5-20% of the world population annually causing high morbidity and mortality especially in risk groups. In addition to determining prevention and treatment strategies with vaccines and antivirals, surveillance data plays an important role in combat against influenza. Surveillance provides valuable data on characteristics of influenza activity, on types, sub-types, antigenic properties and antiviral resistance profile of circulating viruses in a given region. The first influenza surveillance was initiated as a pilot study in 2003 by now named National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Istanbul Faculty of Medicine. Surveillance was launched at national level by Ministry of Health in 2004 and two National Influenza Laboratories, one in Istanbul and the other in Ankara, have been conducting surveillance in Turkey. Surveillance data obtained for nine consecutive years, 2003-2012, by National Influenza Reference Laboratory in Istanbul Faculty of Medicine have been summarized in this report. During 2003-2012 influenza surveillance seasons, a total of 11.077 nasal swabs collected in viral transport medium were sent to the National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Istanbul for analysis. Immun-capture ELISA followed by MDCK cell culture was used for detection of influenza viruses before 2009 and real-time RT-PCR was used thereafter. Antigenic characterizations were done by hemagglutination inhibition assay with the reactives supplied by World Health Organization. Analysis of the results showed that influenza B viruses have entered the circulation in 2005-2006 seasons, and have contributed to the epidemics at increasing rates every year except in the 2009 pandemic season. Influenza B Victoria and Yamagata lineages were cocirculating for two seasons. For other seasons either lineage was in circulation. Antigenic characterization revealed that circulating B viruses matched the vaccine composition either partially or totally for only

Daily and seasonal activity patterns of free range South-American rattlesnake (Crotalus durissus

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ALEXANDRO M. TOZETTI

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This study aimed at describing daily and seasonal variation in the activity of a population of South-American rattlesnakes (Crotalus durissus in a savanna like habitat (Cerrado in Southeastern Brazil. Seasonal and daily activities of snakes were evaluated by the number of captures of snakes during road surveys, accidental encounters, and relocations by radio-tracking. Our results show that climatic variables such as air temperature and rainfall have little influence on the activity pattern of rattlesnakes. Our findings indicate that rattlesnakes spend most of the day resting and most of the night in ambush posture. The South-American rattlesnake is active throughout the year with a discrete peak in activity of males during the matting season. The possibility of maintaining activity levels even during the coldest and driest season can facilitate the colonization of several habitats in South America. This possibility currently facilitates the colonization of deforested areas by rattlesnakes.

Suicides in the midnight sun--a study of seasonality in suicides in West Greenland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Björkstén, Karin Sparring; Bjerregaard, Peter; Kripke, Daniel F

2005-01-01

high rates in most age groups, up to 577 per 100,000 person-years in men aged 15-24 years in 1990, and up to 147 per 100,000 person-years in women aged 15-24 years in 1995. Violent methods of suicide were used by 93%. Depression has been reported uncommonly. High alcohol intake and extended periods......Greenland is the most extreme of human habitats in regard to annual changes in natural light. From being very low, the rate of suicides in Greenland has increased during the past few decades to be among the highest in the world. Several studies have shown seasonality in suicides with spring...... or summer peaks, but this has not been previously shown in Greenland. Official data from 1968 to 1995 from West Greenland were pooled. A significant seasonality in the 833 suicides was found using Rayleigh's test, a peak in June and a trough in the winter. Suicides increased during the period, and reached...

Neural correlates of behavioural olfactory sensitivity changes seasonally in European starlings.

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Geert De Groof

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Possibly due to the small size of the olfactory bulb (OB as compared to rodents, it was generally believed that songbirds lack a well-developed sense of smell. This belief was recently revised by several studies showing that various bird species, including passerines, use olfaction in many respects of life. During courtship and nest building, male European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris incorporate aromatic herbs that are rich in volatile compounds (e.g., milfoil, Achillea millefolium into the nests and they use olfactory cues to identify these plants. Interestingly, European starlings show seasonal differences in their ability to respond to odour cues: odour sensitivity peaks during nest-building in the spring, but is almost non-existent during the non-breeding season.This study used repeated in vivo Manganese-enhanced MRI to quantify for the first time possible seasonal changes in the anatomy and activity of the OB in starling brains. We demonstrated that the OB of the starling exhibits a functional seasonal plasticity of certain plant odour specificity and that the OB is only able to detect milfoil odour during the breeding season. Volumetric analysis showed that this seasonal change in activity is not linked to a change in OB volume. By subsequently experimentally elevating testosterone (T in half of the males during the non-breeding season we showed that the OB volume was increased compared to controls.By investigating the neural substrate of seasonal olfactory sensitivity changes we show that the starlings' OB loses its ability during the non-breeding season to detect a natural odour of a plant preferred as green nest material by male starlings. We found that testosterone, applied during the non-breeding season, does not restore the discriminatory ability of the OB but has an influence on its size.

Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October-December) season

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Sadhuram, Y; Maneesha, K.

peak monsoon (October–November) season and concluded that the frequency of cyclones is modulated by negative and positive IOD rather than El-Nino and La-Nina. In this study, the relationship between southwest monsoon rainfall (June–September) and TNDC... Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October–December) season Y Sadhuram∗ and K Maneesha CSIR–National Institute of Oceanography, 176, Lawsons Bay Colony, Visakhapatnam 530 017, India...

Peak regulation right

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Z. |; Ren, Z.; Li, Z.; Zhu, R.

2005-01-01

A peak regulation right concept and corresponding transaction mechanism for an electricity market was presented. The market was based on a power pool and independent system operator (ISO) model. Peak regulation right (PRR) was defined as a downward regulation capacity purchase option which allowed PRR owners to buy certain quantities of peak regulation capacity (PRC) at a specific price during a specified period from suppliers. The PRR owner also had the right to decide whether or not they would buy PRC from suppliers. It was the power pool's responsibility to provide competitive and fair peak regulation trading markets to participants. The introduction of PRR allowed for unit capacity regulation. The PRR and PRC were rated by the supplier, and transactions proceeded through a bidding process. PRR suppliers obtained profits by selling PRR and PRC, and obtained downward regulation fees regardless of whether purchases are made. It was concluded that the peak regulation mechanism reduced the total cost of the generating system and increased the social surplus. 6 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

The future of smoking-attributable mortality: the case of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Stoeldraijer, Lenny; Bonneux, Luc; van Duin, Coen; van Wissen, Leo; Janssen, Fanny

2015-02-01

We formally estimate future smoking-attributable mortality up to 2050 for the total national populations of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, providing an update and extension of the descriptive smoking-epidemic model. We used smoking prevalence and population-level lung cancer mortality data for England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, covering the period 1950-2009. To estimate the future smoking-attributable mortality fraction (SAF) we: (i) project lung cancer mortality by extrapolating age-period-cohort trends, using the observed convergence of smoking prevalence and similarities in past lung cancer mortality between men and women as input; and (ii) add other causes of death attributable to smoking by applying a simplified version of the indirect Peto-Lopez method to the projected lung cancer mortality. The SAF for men in 2009 was 19% (44 872 deaths) in England & Wales, 22% (5861 deaths) in Denmark and 25% (16 385 deaths) in the Netherlands. In our projections, these fractions decline to 6, 12 and 14%, respectively, in 2050. The SAF for women peaked at 14% (38 883 deaths) in 2008 in England & Wales, and is expected to peak in 2028 in Denmark (22%) and in 2033 in the Netherlands (23%). By 2050, a decline to 9, 17 and 19%, respectively, is foreseen. Different indirect estimation methods of the SAF in 2050 yield a range of 1-8% (England & Wales), 8-13% (Denmark) and 11-16% (the Netherlands) for men, and 7-16, 12-26 and 13-31% for women. From northern European data we project that smoking-attributable mortality will remain important for the future, especially for women. Whereas substantial differences between countries remain, the age-specific evolution of smoking-attributable mortality remains similar across countries and between sexes. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Synergistic interactions between leaf beetle herbivory and fire enhance tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Drus, Gail M.; Dudley, Tom L.; Antonio, Carla M.; Even, Thomas J.; Brooks, Matt L.; Matchett, J.R.

2014-01-01

The combined effects of herbivory and fire on plant mortality were investigated using prescribed burns of tamarisk (Tamarix ramosissima Lebed) exposed to herbivory by the saltcedar leaf beetle (Chrysomelidae: Diorhabda carinulata Desbrocher). Tamarix stands in the Humboldt Sink (NV, USA) were divided into three treatments: summer burn (August 2006), fall burn (October 2006) and control (unburned), and litter depth was manipulated to vary fire intensity within burn seasons. A gradient of existing herbivory impact was described with three plant condition metrics prior to fire: reduced proportions of green canopy, percent root crown starch sampled at the height of the growing season (August 2006), and percent root crown starch measured during dormancy (December 2006). August root crown starch concentration and proportion green canopy were strongly correlated, although the proportion green canopy predicted mortality better than August root crown starch. December root crown starch concentration was more depleted in unburned trees and in trees burned during the summer than in fall burn trees. Mortality in summer burned trees was higher than fall burned trees due to higher fire intensity, but December root crown starch available for resprouting in the spring was also lower in summer burned trees. The greatest mortality was observed in trees with the lowest December root crown starch concentration which were exposed to high fire intensity. Disproportionate changes in the slope and curvature of prediction traces as fire intensity and December starch reach reciprocal maximum and minimum levels indicate that beetle herbivory and fire intensity are synergistic.

Age, growth, mortality, reproduction and feeding habits of the striped seabream, Lithognathus mormyrus (Pisces: Sparidae in the coastal waters of the Thracian Sea, Greece

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Argyris Kallianiotis

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Age, growth, mortality, reproduction and feeding habits were analysed for Lithognathus mormyrus collected in the coastal waters of the Thracian Sea from November 1997 to September 1999. Specimens ranged from 42 to 341 mm in total length. Weight increased with size allometrically (b = 3.242 for immature individuals and isometrically (b = 2.960 for males, females and intersexuals. Growth was described by the standard form of the von Bertalanffy growth equation and the estimated parameters were k = 0.21, t0 = –0.996 and L? = 309.4. Total and natural instantaneous rate of mortality was found to be Z = 0.79 year-1 and M = 0.61 year-1. Sex inversion occurred mainly between 210 and 300 mm (4-9 age classes. Males reached sexual maturity at 162.1 mm (2.5 years and females at 190.40 mm (3.6 years. The spawning period occurred from May to September, while the gamete emission peaked in June-August. Stomach content analysis revealed that L. mormyrus is a carnivorous species feeding on benthic invertebrates, mainly polychaeta and bivalve molluscs. Ontogenetic variation in the diet composition showed that while growing, the fish become more generalist feeders. We also found that in the summer season the fish become more selective feeders.

Burden and Seasonality of Viral Acute Respiratory Tract Infections among Outpatients in Southern Sri Lanka.

Science.gov (United States)

Shapiro, David; Bodinayake, Champica K; Nagahawatte, Ajith; Devasiri, Vasantha; Kurukulasooriya, Ruvini; Hsiang, Jeremy; Nicholson, Bradley; De Silva, Aruna Dharshan; Østbye, Truls; Reller, Megan E; Woods, Christopher W; Tillekeratne, L Gayani

2017-07-01

In tropical and subtropical settings, the epidemiology of viral acute respiratory tract infections varies widely between countries. We determined the etiology, seasonality, and clinical presentation of viral acute respiratory tract infections among outpatients in southern Sri Lanka. From March 2013 to January 2015, we enrolled outpatients presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI). Nasal/nasopharyngeal samples were tested in duplicate using antigen-based rapid influenza testing and multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for respiratory viruses. Monthly proportion positive was calculated for each virus. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to identify associations between sociodemographic/clinical information and viral detection. Of 571 subjects, most (470, 82.3%) were ≥ 5 years of age and 53.1% were male. A respiratory virus was detected by PCR in 63.6% ( N = 363). Common viral etiologies included influenza (223, 39%), human enterovirus/rhinovirus (HEV/HRV, 14.5%), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV, 4.2%), and human metapneumovirus (hMPV, 3.9%). Both ILI and influenza showed clear seasonal variation, with peaks from March to June each year. RSV and hMPV activity peaked from May to July, whereas HEV/HRV was seen year-round. Patients with respiratory viruses detected were more likely to report pain with breathing (odds ratio [OR] = 2.60, P = 0.003), anorexia (OR = 2.29, P respiratory viruses detected. ILI showed clear seasonal variation in southern Sri Lanka, with most activity during March to June; peak activity was largely due to influenza. Targeted infection prevention activities such as influenza vaccination in January-February may have a large public health impact in this region.

Results from the second year of a collaborative effort to forecast influenza seasons in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Biggerstaff, Matthew; Johansson, Michael; Alper, David; Brooks, Logan C; Chakraborty, Prithwish; Farrow, David C; Hyun, Sangwon; Kandula, Sasikiran; McGowan, Craig; Ramakrishnan, Naren; Rosenfeld, Roni; Shaman, Jeffrey; Tibshirani, Rob; Tibshirani, Ryan J; Vespignani, Alessandro; Yang, Wan; Zhang, Qian; Reed, Carrie

2018-02-24

Accurate forecasts could enable more informed public health decisions. Since 2013, CDC has worked with external researchers to improve influenza forecasts by coordinating seasonal challenges for the United States and the 10 Health and Human Service Regions. Forecasted targets for the 2014-15 challenge were the onset week, peak week, and peak intensity of the season and the weekly percent of outpatient visits due to influenza-like illness (ILI) 1-4 weeks in advance. We used a logarithmic scoring rule to score the weekly forecasts, averaged the scores over an evaluation period, and then exponentiated the resulting logarithmic score. Poor forecasts had a score near 0, and perfect forecasts a score of 1. Five teams submitted forecasts from seven different models. At the national level, the team scores for onset week ranged from <0.01 to 0.41, peak week ranged from 0.08 to 0.49, and peak intensity ranged from <0.01 to 0.17. The scores for predictions of ILI 1-4 weeks in advance ranged from 0.02-0.38 and was highest 1 week ahead. Forecast skill varied by HHS region. Forecasts can predict epidemic characteristics that inform public health actions. CDC, state and local health officials, and researchers are working together to improve forecasts. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Reproductive performance and mortality rate in Menz and Horro sheep following controlled breeding in Ethiopia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berhan, A.; Arendonk, van J.A.M.

2006-01-01

The reproductive and lamb mortality data (n = 4890) of Horro and Menz ewes following controlled breeding in Ethiopia were analyzed. Sheep were treated with flugestone acetate (FGA) intravaginal sponges during the wet and dry seasons to compare the reproductive performance of the two indigenous

Factors Associated With Mortality of Thyroid Storm

Science.gov (United States)

Ono, Yosuke; Ono, Sachiko; Yasunaga, Hideo; Matsui, Hiroki; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Tanaka, Yuji

2016-01-01

Abstract Thyroid storm is a life-threatening and emergent manifestation of thyrotoxicosis. However, predictive features associated with fatal outcomes in this crisis have not been clearly defined because of its rarity. The objective of this study was to investigate the associations of patient characteristics, treatments, and comorbidities with in-hospital mortality. We conducted a retrospective observational study of patients diagnosed with thyroid storm using a national inpatient database in Japan from April 1, 2011 to March 31, 2014. Of approximately 21 million inpatients in the database, we identified 1324 patients diagnosed with thyroid storm. The mean (standard deviation) age was 47 (18) years, and 943 (71.3%) patients were female. The overall in-hospital mortality was 10.1%. The number of patients was highest in the summer season. The most common comorbidity at admission was cardiovascular diseases (46.6%). Multivariable logistic regression analyses showed that higher mortality was significantly associated with older age (≥60 years), central nervous system dysfunction at admission, nonuse of antithyroid drugs and β-blockade, and requirement for mechanical ventilation and therapeutic plasma exchange combined with hemodialysis. The present study identified clinical features associated with mortality of thyroid storm using large-scale data. Physicians should pay special attention to older patients with thyrotoxicosis and coexisting central nervous system dysfunction. Future prospective studies are needed to clarify treatment options that could improve the survival outcomes of thyroid storm. PMID:26886648

Decreased seasonal mesor of platelet 3H-imipramine binding in depression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeMet, E.M.; Reist, C.; Bell, K.M.; Gerner, R.H.; Chicz-DeMet, A.; Warren, S.; Wu, J.

1991-01-01

Seasonal cycles of platelet 3 H-imipramine binding were compared in 49 endogenous unipolar depressed patients and 20 normal volunteers. A significant sinusoidal component was detected in the Bmax of binding in both patients and controls with similar amplitudes and seasonal peaks. However, the yearly average (mesor) of the patient group was significantly lower (20.0%) than that of the normal controls. The results support earlier claims of a diminished platelet binding in endogenous depression and indicate that this decrease was still evident in the presence of a 48.2% (controls) to 65.8% (patients) seasonal variation. Control Bmax values were normally distributed about a best-fit mean (cosinor fit). In contrast, patient values appeared to be bimodally distributed with one mode that was similar to controls and one mode that was substantially lower. In general, psychiatric symptoms failed to distinguish between patients with high and low platelet binding and no correlation was found between Bmax and severity of illness (HAM-D)

Seasonal and diurnal variability of N{sub 2}O emissions from a full-scale municipal wastewater treatment plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Daelman, Matthijs R.J., E-mail: m.r.j.daelman@tudelft.nl [Department of Biotechnology, Delft University of Technology, Julianalaan 67, 2628 BC Delft (Netherlands); Department of Biosystems engineering, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Gent (Belgium); Voorthuizen, Ellen M. van [Royal HaskoningDHV, P.O. Box 151, 6500AD Nijmegen (Netherlands); Dongen, Udo G.J.M. van [Department of Biotechnology, Delft University of Technology, Julianalaan 67, 2628 BC Delft (Netherlands); Volcke, Eveline I.P. [Department of Biosystems engineering, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Gent (Belgium); Loosdrecht, Mark C.M. van [Department of Biotechnology, Delft University of Technology, Julianalaan 67, 2628 BC Delft (Netherlands)

2015-12-01

During nitrogen removal in conventional activated sludge processes, nitrous oxide can be emitted. With a global warming potential of 298 CO{sub 2}-equivalents it is an important greenhouse gas that affects the sustainability of wastewater treatment. The present study reports nitrous oxide emission data from a 16 month monitoring campaign on a full-scale municipal wastewater treatment. The emission demonstrated a pronounced diurnal and seasonal variability. This variability was compared with the variability of a number of process variables that are commonly available on a municipal wastewater treatment plant. On a seasonal timescale, the occurrence of peaks in the nitrite concentration correlated strongly with the emission. The diurnal trend of the emission coincided with the diurnal trend of the nitrite and nitrate concentrations in the tank, suggesting that suboptimal oxygen concentrations may induce the production of nitrous oxide during both nitrification and denitrification. This study documents an unprecedented dataset that could serve as a reference for further research. - Highlights: • Unique dataset of long-term nitrous oxide emission from activated sludge tanks • Emission exhibited pronounced diurnal variability, superimposed on seasonal trend • Seasonal nitrous oxide emission trend correlated with daily nitrite peaks • Emission’s diurnal trend suggests suboptimal oxygen concentrations as cause.

Limitation of peak fitting and peak shape methods for determination of activation energy of thermoluminescence glow peaks

CERN Document Server

Sunta, C M; Piters, T M; Watanabe, S

1999-01-01

This paper shows the limitation of general order peak fitting and peak shape methods for determining the activation energy of the thermoluminescence glow peaks in the cases in which retrapping probability is much higher than the recombination probability and the traps are filled up to near saturation level. Right values can be obtained when the trap occupancy is reduced by using small doses or by post-irradiation partial bleaching. This limitation in the application of these methods has not been indicated earlier. In view of the unknown nature of kinetics in the experimental samples, it is recommended that these methods of activation energy determination should be applied only at doses well below the saturation dose.

Seasonality and shift in age-specific malaria prevalence and incidence in Binko and Carrière villages close to the lake in Selingué, Mali.

Science.gov (United States)

Touré, Mahamoudou; Sanogo, Daouda; Dembele, Soumaila; Diawara, Sory Ibrahima; Oppfeldt, Karen; Schiøler, Karin L; Haidara, Dade Ben; Traoré, Sékou F; Alifrangis, Michael; Konradsen, Flemming; Doumbia, Seydou

2016-04-18

Malaria transmission in Mali is seasonal and peaks at the end of the rainy season in October. This study assessed the seasonal variations in the epidemiology of malaria among children under 10 years of age living in two villages in Selingué: Carrière, located along the Sankarani River but distant from the hydroelectric dam, and Binko, near irrigated rice fields, close to the dam. The aim of this study was to provide baseline data, seasonal pattern and age distribution of malaria incidence in two sites situated close to a lake in Selingué. Geographically, Selingué area is located in the basin of Sakanrani and belongs to the district of Yanfolila in the third administrative region of Mali, Sikasso. Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted in October 2010 (end of transmission season) and in July 2011 (beginning of transmission season) to determine the point prevalence of asymptomatic parasitaemia, and anaemia among the children. Cumulative incidence of malaria per month was determined in a cohort of 549 children through active and passive case detection from November 2010 through October 2011. The number of clinical episodes per year was determined among the children in the cohort. Logistic regression was used to determine risk factors for malaria. The prevalence of malaria parasitaemia varied significantly between villages with a strong seasonality in Carrière (52.0-18.9 % in October 2010 and July 2011, respectively) compared with Binko (29.8-23.8 % in October 2010 and July 2011, respectively). Children 6-9 years old were at least twice more likely to carry parasites than children up to 5 years old. For malaria incidence, 64.8-71.9 % of all children experienced at least one episode of clinical malaria in Binko and Carrière, respectively. The peak incidence was observed between August and October (end of the rainy season), but the incidence remained high until December. Surprisingly, the risk of clinical malaria was two- to nine-fold higher among

Make peak flow a habit

Science.gov (United States)

Asthma - make peak flow a habit; Reactive airway disease - peak flow; Bronchial asthma - peak flow ... 2014:chap 55. National Asthma Education and Prevention Program website. How to use a peak flow meter. ...

Phlebotomus argentipes seasonal patterns in India and Nepal.

Science.gov (United States)

Picado, Albert; Das, Murari Lal; Kumar, Vijay; Dinesh, Diwakar S; Rijal, Suman; Singh, Shri P; Das, Pradeep; Coosemans, Marc; Boelaert, Marleen; Davies, Clive

2010-03-01

The current control of Phebotomus argentipes (Annandale and Brunetti), the vector of Leishmania donovani (Laveran and Mesnil), on the Indian subcontinent is base on indoor residual spraying. The efficacy of this method depends, among other factors, on the timing and number of spraying rounds, which depend on the P. argentipes seasonality. To describe P. argentipes' seasonal patterns, six visceral leishmaniasis (VL) endemic villages, three in Muzaffarpur and three in Sunsari districts in India and Nepal, respectively, were selected based on accessibility and VL incidence. Ten houses per cluster with the highest P. argentipes density were monitored monthly for 15-16 mo using Center for Disease Control and Prevention light traps. Minimum and maximum temperature and rainfall data for the months January 2006 through December 2007 were collected from the nearest available weather stations. Backwards stepwise regression was used to generate the minimal adequate model for explaining the monthly variation in P. argentipes populations. The seasonality of P. argentipes is similar in India and Nepal, with two annual density peaks around May and October. Monthly P. argentipes density is positively associated with temperature and negatively associated with rainfall in both study sites. The multivariate climate model explained 57% of the monthly vectorial abundance. Vector control programs against P. argentipes (i.e., indoor residual spraying) should take into account the seasonal described here when implementing and monitoring interventions. Monitoring simple meteorological variables (i.e., temperature, rainfall) may allow prediction of VL epidemics on the Indian subcontinent.

Global Trends in Seasonality of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, 1982–2011

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Assaf Anyamba

2013-09-01

Full Text Available A 30-year series of global monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI imagery derived from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS NDVI3g archive was analyzed for the presence of trends in changing seasonality. Using the Seasonal Trend Analysis (STA procedure, over half (56.30% of land surfaces were found to exhibit significant trends. Almost half (46.10% of the significant trends belonged to three classes of seasonal trends (or changes. Class 1 consisted of areas that experienced a uniform increase in NDVI throughout the year, and was primarily associated with forested areas, particularly broadleaf forests. Class 2 consisted of areas experiencing an increase in the amplitude of the annual seasonal signal whereby increases in NDVI in the green season were balanced by decreases in the brown season. These areas were found primarily in grassland and shrubland regions. Class 3 was found primarily in the Taiga and Tundra biomes and exhibited increases in the annual summer peak in NDVI. While no single attribution of cause could be determined for each of these classes, it was evident that they are primarily found in natural areas (as opposed to anthropogenic land cover conversions and that they are consistent with climate-related ameliorations of growing conditions during the study period.

Clostridium difficile Infection Seasonality: Patterns across Hemispheres and Continents – A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

Furuya-Kanamori, Luis; McKenzie, Samantha J.; Yakob, Laith; Clark, Justin; Paterson, David L.; Riley, Thomas V.; Clements, Archie C.

2015-01-01

Background Studies have demonstrated seasonal variability in rates of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). Synthesising all available information on seasonality is a necessary step in identifying large-scale epidemiological patterns and elucidating underlying causes. Methods Three medical and life sciences publication databases were searched from inception to October 2014 for longitudinal epidemiological studies written in English, Spanish or Portuguese that reported the incidence of CDI. The monthly frequency of CDI were extracted, standardized and weighted according to the number of follow-up months. Cross correlation coefficients (XCORR) were calculated to examine the correlation and lag between the year-month frequencies of reported CDI across hemispheres and continents. Results The search identified 13, 5 and 2 studies from North America, Europe, and Oceania, respectively that met the inclusion criteria. CDI had a similar seasonal pattern in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere characterized by a peak in spring and lower frequencies of CDI in summer/autumn with a lag of 8 months (XCORR = 0.60) between hemispheres. There was no difference between the seasonal patterns across European and North American countries. Conclusion CDI demonstrates a distinct seasonal pattern that is consistent across North America, Europe and Oceania. Further studies are required to identify the driving factors of the observed seasonality. PMID:25775463

Global climate change: impact of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Guangzhou, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jun; Liu, Hua-Zhang; Ou, Chun-Quan; Lin, Guo-Zhen; Zhou, Qin; Shen, Gi-Chuan; Chen, Ping-Yan; Guo, Yuming

2013-04-01

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator associated with global climate change, but little is known about the effects of DTR on mortality. We examined the effects of DTR on cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in China during 2003-2010. A quasi-Poisson regression model combined with distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the effects of DTR, after controlling for daily mean temperature, air pollutants, season and day of the week. A 1 °C increase in DTR at lag 0-4 days was associated with a 0.47% (95% confidence interval: 0.01%-0.93%) increase in non-accidental mortality. Stroke mortality was most sensitive to DTR. Female, the elderly and those with low education were more susceptible to DTR than male, the youth and those with high education, respectively. Our findings suggest that vulnerable subpopulations should pay more attention to protect themselves from unstable daily weather. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observed seasonal and intraseasonal variability of the East India Coastal Current on the continental slope.

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Mukherjee, A; Shankar, D.; Fernando, V.; Amol, P.; Aparna, S.G.; Fernandes, R.; Michael, G.S.; Khalap, S.T.; Satelkar, N.P.; Agarvadekar, Y.; Gaonkar, M.G.; Tari, A; Kankonkar, A; Vernekar, S.

of the northern bay (89 Degree E, 19 Degree N; referred to as being located at Paradip). The data were collected during May 2009 to March 2013 and the observations show that the seasonal cycle, which includes the annual cycle, the semi-annual cycle, and a peak...

Seasonality in the Austrian Economy: Common Seasonals and Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Kunst, Robert M.

1992-01-01

Abstract: Seasonal cointegration generalizes the idea of cointegration to processes with unit roots at frequencies different from 0. Here, also the dual notion of common trends, "common seasonals", is adopted for the seasonal case. Using a five-variable macroeconomic core system of the Austrian economy, it is demonstrated how common seasonals and seasonal cointegrating vectors look in practice. Statistical tests provide clear evidence on seasonal cointegration in the system. However, it is sh...

Effectiveness of Metarhizium anisopliae and Entomopathogenic Nematodes to Control Oryctes rhinoceros Larvae in the Rainy Season.

Science.gov (United States)

Indriyanti, Dyah Rini; Widiyaningrum, Priyantini; Haryuni; Slamet, Muji; Maretta, Yoris Adi

2017-01-01

Metarhizium anisopliae (MET) and entomopathogenic nematodes (EPN) are microorganisms that attack the larvae of Oryctes rhinoceros. The effects of MET, EPN and the combination of both on the O. rhinoceros larvae were studied during the rainy season in Jepara Indonesia. This study aimed to determine the effectiveness of Metarhizium anisopliae and entomopathogenic nematodes to control Oryctes rhinoceros larvae in the rainy season. There were four level doses of MET, four level doses of EPN and four mixture of MET and EPN. The experiment used 72 containers that were placed in the garden with coconut palm shade. Five kilograms of organic soil that was mixed with biological control agents (MET, EPN and MET+EPN) and ten O. rhinoceros larvae 3rd instar were put in each other container. The data were analyzed by descriptive analysis. Every larvae mortality was observed once a week and observations are for 8 weeks. The result showed that the larval mortality due to MET treatment occurred on 2nd-7th week. Meanwhile, the larval mortality due to EPN treatment took place on 2nd-8th weeks and the larval mortality due to MET+EPN treatment occurred on 1st-5th weeks. The combination of MET and EPN was simultaneously effective to control O. rhinoceros larvae than separate use of MET or EPN. Result of this study showed that using two agents of biocontrol was more effective, so that it can be beneficial for controlling O. rhinoceros larvae in the field.

Seasonal Abundance of Aphids and Aphidophagous Insects in Pecan

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Ghulam Abbas

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Seasonal occurrence of aphids and aphidophagous insects was monitored for six years (2006–2011 from full leaf expansion in May to leaf fall in October in “Desirable” variety pecan trees that were not treated with insecticides. Aphid outbreaks occurred two times per season, once in the spring and again in the late summer. Yellow pecan and blackmargined aphids exceeded the recommended treatment thresholds one time and black pecan aphids exceeded the recommended treatment levels three times over the six seasons. Increases in aphidophagous insect abundance coincided with aphid outbreaks in five of the six seasons. Among aphidophagous insects Harmonia axyridis and Olla v-nigrum were frequently collected in both the tree canopy and at the ground level, whereas, Coccinella septempunctata, Hippodamia convergens were rarely found in the tree canopy and commonly found at the ground level. Green lacewing abundance was higher in the ground level than in the tree canopy. Brown lacewings were more abundant in the tree canopy than at the ground level. Dolichopodid and syrphid fly abundance, at the ground level increased during peak aphid abundance in the tree canopy. Application of an aqueous solution of fermenting molasses to the pecan foliage during an aphid outbreak significantly increased the abundance of ladybeetles and lacewings and significantly reduced the abundance of yellow pecan, blackmargined and black pecan aphids.

Seasonal Abundance of Aphids and Aphidophagous Insects in Pecan

Science.gov (United States)

Dutcher, James D.; Karar, Haider; Abbas, Ghulam

2012-01-01

Seasonal occurrence of aphids and aphidophagous insects was monitored for six years (2006–2011) from full leaf expansion in May to leaf fall in October in “Desirable” variety pecan trees that were not treated with insecticides. Aphid outbreaks occurred two times per season, once in the spring and again in the late summer. Yellow pecan and blackmargined aphids exceeded the recommended treatment thresholds one time and black pecan aphids exceeded the recommended treatment levels three times over the six seasons. Increases in aphidophagous insect abundance coincided with aphid outbreaks in five of the six seasons. Among aphidophagous insects Harmonia axyridis and Olla v-nigrum were frequently collected in both the tree canopy and at the ground level, whereas, Coccinella septempunctata, Hippodamia convergens were rarely found in the tree canopy and commonly found at the ground level. Green lacewing abundance was higher in the ground level than in the tree canopy. Brown lacewings were more abundant in the tree canopy than at the ground level. Dolichopodid and syrphid fly abundance, at the ground level increased during peak aphid abundance in the tree canopy. Application of an aqueous solution of fermenting molasses to the pecan foliage during an aphid outbreak significantly increased the abundance of ladybeetles and lacewings and significantly reduced the abundance of yellow pecan, blackmargined and black pecan aphids. PMID:26466738

Peak tree: a new tool for multiscale hierarchical representation and peak detection of mass spectrometry data.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Peng; Li, Houqiang; Wang, Honghui; Wong, Stephen T C; Zhou, Xiaobo

2011-01-01

Peak detection is one of the most important steps in mass spectrometry (MS) analysis. However, the detection result is greatly affected by severe spectrum variations. Unfortunately, most current peak detection methods are neither flexible enough to revise false detection results nor robust enough to resist spectrum variations. To improve flexibility, we introduce peak tree to represent the peak information in MS spectra. Each tree node is a peak judgment on a range of scales, and each tree decomposition, as a set of nodes, is a candidate peak detection result. To improve robustness, we combine peak detection and common peak alignment into a closed-loop framework, which finds the optimal decomposition via both peak intensity and common peak information. The common peak information is derived and loopily refined from the density clustering of the latest peak detection result. Finally, we present an improved ant colony optimization biomarker selection method to build a whole MS analysis system. Experiment shows that our peak detection method can better resist spectrum variations and provide higher sensitivity and lower false detection rates than conventional methods. The benefits from our peak-tree-based system for MS disease analysis are also proved on real SELDI data.

High-Frequency Measurements of Methane Ebullition Over a Growing Season at a Temperate Peatland Site

Science.gov (United States)

Goodrich, Jordan P.; Varner, Ruth K.; Frolking, Steve; Duncan, Bryan N.; Crill, Patrick M.

2011-01-01

Bubbles can contribute a significant fraction of methane emissions fr om wetlands; however the range of reported fractions is very large an d accurate characterization of this pathway has proven difficult. Her e we show that continuous automated flux chambers combined with an in tegrated cavity output spectroscopy (ICOS) instrument allow us to qua ntify both CH4 ebullition rate and magnitude. For a temperate poor f en in 2009, ebullition rate varied on hourly to seasonal time scales. A diel pattern in ebullition was identified with peak release occurr ing between 20:00 and 06:00 local time, though steady fluxes (i.e., t hose with a linear increase in chamber headspace CH4 concentration) d id not exhibit diel variability. Seasonal mean ebullition rates peake d at 843.5 +/- 384.2 events m(exp -2)/d during the summer, with a me an magnitude of 0.19 mg CH4 released in each event.

Seasonal and diurnal variation in concentrations of gaseous and particulate phase endosulfan

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Qingbo; Wang, Xianyu; Song, Jing; Sui, Hongqi; Huang, Lei; Li, Lu

2012-12-01

Successive 52-week air monitoring of α-endosulfan (α-E), β-endosulfan (β-E) and endosulfan sulfate (E.S) in the gaseous and particulate phases was conducted in Dalian city, northeast China by using an active high-volume sampler. Significant seasonal and diurnal variations in endosulfan concentrations were observed. It was found that the concentration of gaseous-phase α-E peaked in the summer and the concentration of particulate phase α-E peaked in the winter. For E.S, both gaseous and particulate phase concentrations peaked in the summer. α-E was distributed predominantly in the gas phase in the summer but was distributed mainly in the particulate phase in the winter. β-E was distributed mainly in the gas phase in the summer and in the particulate phase at other times of the year. E.S was distributed mainly in the particulate phase throughout the year. Elevated temperatures facilitated the volatilization of α-E from particle surfaces but exerted little effect on β-E and had almost no effect on E.S. Trajectory-based analysis indicates that the seasonal variation in atmospheric concentrations of endosulfan in Dalian city was influenced strongly by the land and sea air masses. In addition, differences in endosulfan concentrations in the particulate phase between day and night were likely due to the circulation of sea/land breezes. The 'cold-condensation' effect occurring during the night may result in the attachment of endosulfan to the particulate phase.

Seasonal changes in climatic parameters and their relationship with the incidence of pneumococcal bacteraemia in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tvedebrink, Torben; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Thomsen, R.W.

2008-01-01

The seasonal variation in the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease is well recognized, but little is known about its relationship with actual changes in climatic parameters. In this 8-year longitudinal population-based study in Denmark, a harmonic sinusoidal regression model was used...... to examine whether preceding changes in climatic parameters corresponded with subsequent variations in the incidence of pneumococcal bacteraemia, independently of seasonal variation. The study shows that changes in temperature can be used to closely predict peaks in the incidence of pneumococcal bacteraemia...

Reducing the power load by means of seasonal tariffs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

It has been found that, on a typical winter day, a network tariff that depends on the season may lead to a 5 per cent reduction in the power load of a row house. This is one of the results of a project which investigated the effect of season-dependent tariffs with 108 customers in Trondheim, Norway. For flats in blocks, the impact was insignificant and evidently other instruments were required. Results from this project and other projects in the 'End-user market' have been important for the proposed new seasonally differentiated tariffs. The effect of time variable network tariffs has been tested with 20 commercial customers in Trondheim over a period of three years and 13 of these customers adapted themselves actively to the new tariff and achieved a reduction of the peak load of from five to three per cent. In the summer, the price was about half that of a winter day. It is critical for the intended effect to occur that the arrangement is long-lasting and predictable for the customer. This contributes to increased adaptation and investment in the necessary equipment

The price of play: self-organized infant mortality cycles in chimpanzees.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hjalmar S Kuehl

Full Text Available Chimpanzees have been used extensively as a model system for laboratory research on infectious diseases. Ironically, we know next to nothing about disease dynamics in wild chimpanzee populations. Here, we analyze long-term demographic and behavioral data from two habituated chimpanzee communities in Taï National Park, Côte d'Ivoire, where previous work has shown respiratory pathogens to be an important source of infant mortality. In this paper we trace the effect of social connectivity on infant mortality dynamics. We focus on social play which, as the primary context of contact between young chimpanzees, may serve as a key venue for pathogen transmission. Infant abundance and mortality rates at Taï cycled regularly and in a way that was not well explained in terms of environmental forcing. Rather, infant mortality cycles appeared to self-organize in response to the ontogeny of social play. Each cycle started when the death of multiple infants in an outbreak synchronized the reproductive cycles of their mothers. A pulse of births predictably arrived about twelve months later, with social connectivity increasing over the following two years as the large birth cohort approached the peak of social play. The high social connectivity at this play peak then appeared to facilitate further outbreaks. Our results provide the first evidence that social play has a strong role in determining chimpanzee disease transmission risk and the first record of chimpanzee disease cycles similar to those seen in human children. They also lend more support to the view that infectious diseases are a major threat to the survival of remaining chimpanzee populations.

Season of birth and multiple sclerosis in Tunisia.

Science.gov (United States)

Sidhom, Youssef; Kacem, Imen; Bayoudh, Lamia; Ben Djebara, Mouna; Hizem, Yosr; Ben Abdelfettah, Sami; Gargouri, Amina; Gouider, Riadh

2015-11-01

Recent studies on date of birth of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients showed an association between month of birth and the risk of developing MS. This association has not been investigated in an African country. We aimed to determine if the risk of MS is associated with month of birth in Tunisia. Data concerning date of birth for MS patients in Tunisia (n = 1912) was obtained. Birth rates of MS patients were compared with all births in Tunisia matched by year of birth (n = 11,615,912). We used a chi-squared analysis and the Hewitt's non-parametric test for seasonality. The distribution of births among MS patients compared with the control population was not different when tested by the chi-squared test. The Hewitt's test for seasonality showed an excess of births between May and October among MS patients (p = 0.03). The peak of Births of MS patients in Tunisia was in July and the nadir in December. Our data does support the seasonality hypothesis of month of birth as risk factor for MS in Tunisia. Low vitamin D levels during pregnancy could be a possible explanation that needs further investigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonality of fire weather strongly influences fire regimes in South Florida savanna-grassland landscapes.

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William J Platt

Full Text Available Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature. We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993-2009 data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires over a 13-year period with fire records (1997-2009. Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with

Seasonality of Fire Weather Strongly Influences Fire Regimes in South Florida Savanna-Grassland Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Platt, William J.; Orzell, Steve L.; Slocum, Matthew G.

2015-01-01

Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993–2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997–2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of

Coastal upwelling seasonality and variability of temperature and chlorophyll in a small coastal embayment

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Walter, Ryan K.; Armenta, Kevin J.; Shearer, Brandon; Robbins, Ian; Steinbeck, John

2018-02-01

While the seasonality of wind-driven coastal upwelling in eastern boundary upwelling systems has long been established, many studies describe two distinct seasons (upwelling and non-upwelling), a generalized framework that does not capture details relevant to marine ecosystems. In this contribution, we present a more detailed description of the annual cycle and upwelling seasonality for an understudied location along the central California coast. Using both the mean monthly upwelling favorable wind stress and the monthly standard deviation, we define the following seasons (contiguous months) and a transitional period (non-contiguous months): "Winter Storms" season (Dec-Jan-Feb), "Upwelling Transition" period (Mar and Jun), "Peak Upwelling" season (Apr-May), "Upwelling Relaxation" season (Jul-Aug-Sep), and "Winter Transition" season (Oct-Nov). In order to describe the oceanic response to this upwelling wind seasonality, we take advantage of nearly a decade of full water-column measurements of temperature and chlorophyll made using an automated profiling system at the end of the California Polytechnic State University Pier in San Luis Obispo Bay, a small ( 2 km wide near study site) and shallow ( 10 m average bay depth) coastal embayment. Variability and average-year patterns are described inside the bay during the various upwelling seasons. Moreover, the role of the local coastline orientation and topography on bay dynamics is also assessed using long-term measurements collected outside of the bay. The formation of a seasonally variable upwelling shadow system and potential nearshore retention zone is discussed. The observations presented provide a framework on which to study interannual changes to the average-year seasonal cycle, assess the contribution of higher-frequency features to nearshore variability, and better predict dynamically and ecologically important events.

Timing of breeding and reproductive performance in murres and kittiwakes reflect mismatched seasonal prey dynamics

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Shultz, M.T.; Piatt, John F.; Harding, A.M.A.; Kettle, Arthur B.; van Pelt, Thomas I.

2009-01-01

Seabirds are thought to time breeding to match the seasonal peak of food availability with peak chick energetic demands, but warming ocean temperatures have altered the timing of spring events, creating the potential for mismatches. The resilience of seabird populations to climate change depends on their ability to anticipate changes in the timing and magnitude of peak food availability and 'fine-tune' efforts to match ('Anticipation Hypothesis'). The degree that inter-annual variation in seabird timing of breeding and reproductive performance represents anticipated food availability versus energetic constraints ('Constraint Hypothesis') is poorly understood. We examined the relative merits of the Constraint and Anticipation Hypotheses by testing 2 predictions of the Constraint Hypothesis: (1) seabird timing of breeding is related to food availability prior to egg laying rather than the date of peak food availability, (2) initial reproductive output (e.g. laying success, clutch size) is related to pre-lay food availability rather than anticipated chick-rearing food availability. We analyzed breeding biology data of common murres Uria aalge and black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla and 2 proxies of the seasonal dynamics of their food availability (near-shore forage fish abundance and sea-surface temperature) at 2 colonies in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska, USA, from 1996 to 1999. Our results support the Constraint Hypothesis: (1) for both species, egg laying was later in years with warmer sea-surface temperature and lower food availability prior to egg laying, but was not related to the date of peak food availability, (2) pre-egg laying food availability explained variation in kittiwake laying success and clutch size. Murre reproductive success was best explained by food availability during chick rearing. ?? 2009 Inter-Research.

Seasonal Nitrogen Cycles on Pluto

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Hansen, Candice J.; Paige, David A.

1996-01-01

A thermal model, developed to predict seasonal nitrogen cycles on Triton, has been modified and applied to Pluto. The model was used to calculate the partitioning of nitrogen between surface frost deposits and the atmosphere, as a function of time for various sets of input parameters. Volatile transport was confirmed to have a significant effect on Pluto's climate as nitrogen moved around on a seasonal time scale between hemispheres, and sublimed into and condensed out of the atmosphere. Pluto's high obliquity was found to have a significant effect on the distribution of frost on its surface. Conditions that would lead to permanent polar caps on Triton were found to lead to permanent zonal frost bands on Pluto. In some instances, frost sublimed from the middle of a seasonal cap outward, resulting in a "polar bald spot". Frost which was darker than the substrate did not satisfy observables on Pluto, in contrast to our findings for Triton. Bright frost (brighter than the substrate) came closer to matching observables. Atmospheric pressure varied seasonally. The amplitudes, and to a lesser extent the phase, of the variation depended significantly on frost and substrate properties. Atmospheric pressure was found to be determined both by Pluto's distance from the sun and by the subsolar latitude. In most cases two peaks in atmospheric pressure were observed annually: a greater one associated with the sublimation of the north polar cap just as Pluto receded from perihelion, and a lesser one associated with the sublimation of the south polar cap as Pluto approached perihelion. Our model predicted frost-free dark substrate surface temperatures in the 50 to 60 K range, while frost temperatures typically ranged between 30 to 40 K. Temporal changes in frost coverage illustrated by our results, and changes in the viewing geometry of Pluto from the Earth, may be important for interpretation of ground-based measurements of Pluto's thermal emission.

Added effect of heat wave on mortality in Seoul, Korea.

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Lee, Won Kyung; Lee, Hye Ah; Lim, Youn Hee; Park, Hyesook

2016-05-01

A heat wave could increase mortality owing to high temperature. However, little is known about the added (duration) effect of heat wave from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and different effect sizes depending on the definition of heat waves and models. A distributed lag non-linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the added effect of heat wave on mortality after adjusting for long-term and intra-seasonal trends and apparent temperature. We evaluated the cumulative relative risk of the added wave effect on mortality on lag days 0-30. The models were constructed using nine definitions of heat wave and two relationships (cubic spline and linear threshold model) between temperature and mortality to leave out the high temperature effect. Further, we performed sensitivity analysis to evaluate the changes in the effect of heat wave on mortality according to the different degrees of freedom for time trend and cubic spline of temperature. We found that heat wave had the added effect from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and it was considerable in the aspect of cumulative risk because of the lagged influence. When heat wave was defined with a threshold of 98th percentile temperature and ≥2, 3, and 4 consecutive days, mortality increased by 14.8 % (7.5-22.6, 95 % confidence interval (CI)), 18.1 % (10.8-26.0, 95 % CI), 18.1 % (10.7-25.9, 95 % CI), respectively, in cubic spline model. When it came to the definitions of 90th and 95th percentile, the risk increase in mortality declined to 3.7-5.8 % and 8.6-11.3 %, respectively. This effect was robust to the flexibility of the model for temperature and time trend, while the definitions of a heat wave were critical in estimating its relationship with mortality. This finding could help deepen our understanding and quantifying of the relationship between heat wave and mortality and select an appropriate definition of heat wave and temperature model in the future

Respiratory hospital admissions and weather changes: a retrospective study in Charlottesville, Virginia, USA

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Davis, Robert E.; Enfield, Kyle B.

2018-06-01

In most midlatitude locations, human morbidity and mortality are highly seasonal, with winter peaks driven by respiratory disease and associated comorbidities. But the transition between high and low mortality/morbidity months varies spatially. We use a measure of the thermal biophysical strain imposed on the respiratory system—the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI)—to examine respiratory hospital admissions in Charlottesville, VA. Daily respiratory admissions to the University of Virginia over a 19-year period are compared to ATSI values derived from hourly surface weather data acquired from the Charlottesville airport. Negative ATSI values (associated with transitions from warm (and humid) to cold (and dry) conditions) are related to admission peaks at seasonal and weekly timescales, whereas positive ATSI values (cold to warm) exhibit weaker relationships. This research marks the first application of the ATSI to human morbidity, and results suggest that respiratory strain may account for how people who are acclimated to different climates respond to short-term weather changes.

Respiratory hospital admissions and weather changes: a retrospective study in Charlottesville, Virginia, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Robert E.; Enfield, Kyle B.

2018-02-01

In most midlatitude locations, human morbidity and mortality are highly seasonal, with winter peaks driven by respiratory disease and associated comorbidities. But the transition between high and low mortality/morbidity months varies spatially. We use a measure of the thermal biophysical strain imposed on the respiratory system—the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI)—to examine respiratory hospital admissions in Charlottesville, VA. Daily respiratory admissions to the University of Virginia over a 19-year period are compared to ATSI values derived from hourly surface weather data acquired from the Charlottesville airport. Negative ATSI values (associated with transitions from warm (and humid) to cold (and dry) conditions) are related to admission peaks at seasonal and weekly timescales, whereas positive ATSI values (cold to warm) exhibit weaker relationships. This research marks the first application of the ATSI to human morbidity, and results suggest that respiratory strain may account for how people who are acclimated to different climates respond to short-term weather changes.