WorldWideScience

Sample records for seas geographical trends

  1. Sea level trends in South East Asian Seas (SEAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

    2014-10-01

    Southeast Asian Seas (SEAS) span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The SEAS regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost two decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17 year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement in areas and at times of strong signal to noise associated decadal variability forced by low frequency variations in Pacific trade winds. The SEAS region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer time scales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past twenty years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the SEAS region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the SEAS regional sea level trends during 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the SEAS will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

  2. Sea level trends in Southeast Asian seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

    2015-05-01

    Southeast Asian seas span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian oceans. The Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost 2 decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17-year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement with decadal variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and related fluctuations of trade winds in the region. The Southeast Asian sea region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer timescales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past 20 years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the Southeast Asian sea region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends during the 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the Southeast Asian seas will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

  3. PEDIATRIC FITNESS: SECULAR TRENDS AND GEOGRAPHIC VARIABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grant R. Tomkinson

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available DESCRIPTION This book describes and discusses children's physical capacity in terms of aerobic and anaerobic power generation according to secular trends and geographic variability. PURPOSE To discuss the controversial issue of whether present day's children and adolescents are fitter than their equals of the past and whether they are fitter if they live in the more prosperous countries. AUDIENCE Pediatricians, medical practitioners, physical educators, exercise and/or sport scientists, exercise physiologists, personal trainers and graduate students in relevant fields will find this book helpful when dealing with contemporary trends and geographic variability in pediatric fitness. FEATURES The volume starts by examining the general picture on children fitness by the editors. The individual chapter's authors discuses the data gathered since the late 1950s on secular trends and geographic changeability in aerobic and anaerobic pediatric fitness performances of children and adolescents from 23 countries in Africa, Asia, Australasia, Europe, the Middle East and North America. There are chapters proposing that there is proof that there has been a world-wide decline in pediatric aerobic performance in recent decades, relative stability in anaerobic performance, and that the best performing children come from northern and central Europe. In final chapters possible causes to that end are considered, including whether weakening in aerobic performance are the result of distributional or widespread declines, and whether increases in obesity alone can explain the failure in aerobic performance. ASSESSMENT The editors have assembled a volume of Medicine and Sports Science that is necessary and essential reading for all who are interested in understanding and improving the fitness of children. The readers will find useful information in this book on secular trends and geographic variability in pediatric fitness. I believe, the book will serve as a first

  4. Monitoring sea level and sea surface temperature trends from ERS satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per; Beckley, B.

    2002-01-01

    Data from the two ESA satellites ERS-1 and ERS-2 are used in global and regional analysis of sea level and sea surface temperature trends over the last, 7.8 years. T he ERS satellites and in the future the ENVISAT satellite provide unique opportunity for monitoring both changes in sea level and sea...

  5. Radioactive contamination in Norwegian fish and seafood 1960-2013: time trends and geographical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heldal, Hilde Elise; Svaeren, Ingrid; Liebig, Penny Lee [Institute of Marine Research, P. O. Box 1870 Nordnes, N-5817 Bergen (Norway); Brungot, Anne Lene; Gaefvert, Torbjoern; Rudjord, Anne Liv [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, P.O. Box 55, N-1332 Oesteraas (Norway); Gwynn, Justin [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, The Fram Centre, N-9296 Tromsoe (Norway)

    2014-07-01

    Barents Sea in 2012). However, time trends and geographical trends are clearly evident in the datasets. For example, the impact of fallout from the Chernobyl accident could be observed, particularly in samples collected in coastal areas and the Kattegat/Skagerrak and the North Sea. In recent decades there has been a slow decrease in the activity concentrations of most anthropogenic radionuclides in fish and seafood as a result of decreasing discharges from European reprocessing plants for spent nuclear fuel and the reduced impact of fallout from the Chernobyl accident. In the case of {sup 99}Tc however, activity concentrations in seawater and certain biota increased to peak values around 2000 as a result of increased discharges from Sellafield (UK) in the 1990's. In open sea areas, the activity concentrations of {sup 137}Cs in fish and seafood have been highest in the Skagerrak and the North Sea due to the proximity to the reprocessing plants at Sellafield and Cap la Hague (France) and outflowing Chernobyl-contaminated seawater from the Baltic Sea. Activity concentrations of {sup 137}Cs in fish and seafood collected in fjords in mid-Norway are up to an order of magnitude higher than in the open sea areas due to terrestrial run-off from Chernobyl fallout in Norway. (authors)

  6. Sea level trend and variability around the Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luu, Q. H.; Tkalich, P.; Tay, T. W.

    2014-06-01

    Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. Resulting sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); while long-term sea level trend is related to global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability around the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 1.6 mm yr-1 and 2.7 ± 1.0 mm yr-1, respectively. Allowing for corresponding vertical land movements (VLM; 0.8 ± 2.6 mm yr-1 and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm yr-1), their absolute SLR rates are 3.2 ± 4.2 mm yr-1 and 3.6 ± 3.2 mm yr-1, respectively. For the common period 1993-2009, absolute SLR rates obtained from both tide gauge and satellite altimetry in Peninsular Malaysia are similar; and they are slightly higher than the global tendency. It further underlines that VLM should be taken into account to get better estimates of SLR observations. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian coast in the range of ±5 cm with a very high correlation. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies mainly in the Malacca Strait in the range of ±2 cm with a high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index

  7. Trend patterns in global sea surface temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barbosa, S.M.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2009-01-01

    Isolating long-term trend in sea surface temperature (SST) from El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) variability is fundamental for climate studies. In the present study, trend-empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a robust space-time method for extracting trend patterns, is applied to iso...

  8. Sirenomelia in Argentina: Prevalence, geographic clusters and temporal trends analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groisman, Boris; Liascovich, Rosa; Gili, Juan Antonio; Barbero, Pablo; Bidondo, María Paz

    2016-07-01

    Sirenomelia is a severe malformation of the lower body characterized by a single medial lower limb and a variable combination of visceral abnormalities. Given that Sirenomelia is a very rare birth defect, epidemiological studies are scarce. The aim of this study is to evaluate prevalence, geographic clusters and time trends of sirenomelia in Argentina, using data from the National Network of Congenital Anomalies of Argentina (RENAC) from November 2009 until December 2014. This is a descriptive study using data from the RENAC, a hospital-based surveillance system for newborns affected with major morphological congenital anomalies. We calculated sirenomelia prevalence throughout the period, searched for geographical clusters, and evaluated time trends. The prevalence of confirmed cases of sirenomelia throughout the period was 2.35 per 100,000 births. Cluster analysis showed no statistically significant geographical aggregates. Time-trends analysis showed that the prevalence was higher in years 2009 to 2010. The observed prevalence was higher than the observed in previous epidemiological studies in other geographic regions. We observed a likely real increase in the initial period of our study. We used strict diagnostic criteria, excluding cases that only had clinical diagnosis of sirenomelia. Therefore, real prevalence could be even higher. This study did not show any geographic clusters. Because etiology of sirenomelia has not yet been established, studies of epidemiological features of this defect may contribute to define its causes. Birth Defects Research (Part A) 106:604-611, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Computing and Representing Sea Ice Trends: Toward a Community Consensus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlleben, T.; Tivy, A.; Stroeve, J.; Meier, Walter N.; Fetterer, F.; Wang, J.; Assel, R.

    2013-01-01

    Estimates of the recent decline in Arctic Ocean summer sea ice extent can vary due to differences in sea ice data sources, in the number of years used to compute the trend, and in the start and end years used in the trend computation. Compounding such differences, estimates of the relative decline in sea ice cover (given in percent change per decade) can further vary due to the choice of reference value (the initial point of the trend line, a climatological baseline, etc.). Further adding to the confusion, very often when relative trends are reported in research papers, the reference values used are not specified or made clear. This can lead to confusion when trend studies are cited in the press and public reports.

  10. GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF THE COASTAL FLORA OF THE AZOV SEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kolomiychuk V. P.

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative indicators of the coastal flora of the Azov Sea are presented. Geographical features of the flora of the region have been analyzed. The major endemic complexes of the flora being investigated are described.

  11. Recent trends in sea surface temperature off Mexico

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lluch-Cota, S.E.; Tripp-Valdéz, M.; Lluch-Cota, D.B.; Lluch-Belda, D.; Verbesselt, J.; Herrera-Cervantes, H.; Bautista-Romero, J.

    2013-01-01

    Changes in global mean sea surface temperature may have potential negative implications for natural and socioeconomic systems; however, measurements to predict trends in different regions have been limited and sometimes contradictory. In this study, an assessment of sea surface temperature change

  12. Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

    2018-03-01

    Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

  13. Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature

    KAUST Repository

    Chaidez, Veronica

    2017-08-09

    Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade-1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century1. However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea\\'s thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade-1, while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade-1, all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

  14. Behavioral and physiological correlates of the geographic distributions of amphibious sea kraits (Laticauda spp.)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brischoux, François; Tingley, Reid; Shine, Richard; Lillywhite, Harvey B.

    2013-02-01

    The physiological costs of living in seawater likely influenced the secondary evolutionary transitions to marine life in tetrapods. However, these costs are alleviated for species that commute between the land and the sea, because terrestrial habitats can provide frequent access to fresh water. Here, we investigate how differences in the ecology and physiology of three sea krait species (Laticauda spp.) interact to determine their environmental tolerances and geographic distributions. These three species vary in their relative use of terrestrial versus marine environments, and they display concomitant adaptations to life on land versus at sea. A species with relatively high dehydration rates in seawater (Laticauda colubrina) occupied oceanic areas with low mean salinities, whereas a species with comparatively high rates of transcutaneous evaporative water loss on land (Laticauda semifasciata) occupied regions with low mean temperatures. A third taxon (Laticauda laticaudata) was intermediate in both of these traits, and yet occupied the broadest geographic range. Our results suggest that the abilities of sea kraits to acquire fresh water on land and tolerate dehydration at sea determine their environmental tolerances and geographic distributions. This finding supports the notion that speciation patterns within sea kraits have been driven by interspecific variation in the degree of reliance upon terrestrial versus marine habitats. Future studies could usefully examine the effects of osmotic challenges on diversification rates in other secondarily marine tetrapod species.

  15. Arctic Sea Ice Variability and Trends, 1979-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.; Cavalieri, Donald J.

    2008-01-01

    Analysis of Arctic sea ice extents derived from satellite passive-microwave data for the 28 years, 1979-2006 yields an overall negative trend of -45,100 +/- 4,600 km2/yr (-3.7 +/- 0.4%/decade) in the yearly averages, with negative ice-extent trends also occurring for each of the four seasons and each of the 12 months. For the yearly averages the largest decreases occur in the Kara and Barents Seas and the Arctic Ocean, with linear least squares slopes of -10,600 +/- 2,800 km2/yr (-7.4 +/- 2.0%/decade) and -10,100 +/- 2,200 km2/yr (-1.5 +/- 0.3%/decade), respectively, followed by Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea, with a slope of -8,000 +/- 2,000 km2/yr) -9.0 +/- 2.3%/decade), the Greenland Sea, with a slope of -7,000 +/- 1,400 km2/yr (-9.3 +/- 1.9%/decade), and Hudson Bay, with a slope of -4,500 +/- 900 km2/yr (-5.3 +/- 1.1%/decade). These are all statistically significant decreases at a 99% confidence level. The Seas of Okhotsk and Japan also have a statistically significant ice decrease, although at a 95% confidence level, and the three remaining regions, the Bering Sea, Canadian Archipelago, and Gulf of St. Lawrence, have negative slopes that are not statistically significant. The 28-year trends in ice areas for the Northern Hemisphere total are also statistically significant and negative in each season, each month, and for the yearly averages.

  16. Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature

    KAUST Repository

    Chaidez, Veronica; Dreano, Denis; Agusti, Susana; Duarte, Carlos M.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2017-01-01

    Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade-1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century1. However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade-1, while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade-1, all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

  17. Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaidez, V; Dreano, D; Agusti, S; Duarte, C M; Hoteit, I

    2017-08-15

    Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade -1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century 1 . However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade -1 , while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade -1 , all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

  18. Canadian snow and sea ice: historical trends and projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Derksen, Chris; Howell, Stephen; Laliberté, Fred; Thackeray, Chad; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Vionnet, Vincent; Kushner, Paul J.; Brown, Ross

    2018-04-01

    The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state of the art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. Here, we present an assessment from the CanSISE Network on trends in the historical record of snow cover (fraction, water equivalent) and sea ice (area, concentration, type, and thickness) across Canada. We also assess projected changes in snow cover and sea ice likely to occur by mid-century, as simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) suite of Earth system models. The historical datasets show that the fraction of Canadian land and marine areas covered by snow and ice is decreasing over time, with seasonal and regional variability in the trends consistent with regional differences in surface temperature trends. In particular, summer sea ice cover has decreased significantly across nearly all Canadian marine regions, and the rate of multi-year ice loss in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago has nearly doubled over the last 8 years. The multi-model consensus over the 2020-2050 period shows reductions in fall and spring snow cover fraction and sea ice concentration of 5-10 % per decade (or 15-30 % in total), with similar reductions in winter sea ice concentration in both Hudson Bay and eastern Canadian waters. Peak pre-melt terrestrial snow water equivalent reductions of up to 10 % per decade (30 % in total) are projected across southern Canada.

  19. Bio-geographic classification of the Caspian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fendereski, F.; Vogt, M.; Payne, M. R.; Lachkar, Z.; Gruber, N.; Salmanmahiny, A.; Hosseini, S. A.

    2014-03-01

    Like other inland seas, the Caspian Sea (CS) has been influenced by climate change and anthropogenic disturbance during recent decades, yet the scientific understanding of this water body remains poor. In this study, an eco-geographical classification of the CS based on physical information derived from space and in-situ data is developed and tested against a set of biological observations. We used a two-step classification procedure, consisting of (i) a data reduction with self-organizing maps (SOMs) and (ii) a synthesis of the most relevant features into a reduced number of marine ecoregions using the Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering (HAC) method. From an initial set of 12 potential physical variables, 6 independent variables were selected for the classification algorithm, i.e., sea surface temperature (SST), bathymetry, sea ice, seasonal variation of sea surface salinity (DSSS), total suspended matter (TSM) and its seasonal variation (DTSM). The classification results reveal a robust separation between the northern and the middle/southern basins as well as a separation of the shallow near-shore waters from those off-shore. The observed patterns in ecoregions can be attributed to differences in climate and geochemical factors such as distance from river, water depth and currents. A comparison of the annual and monthly mean Chl a concentrations between the different ecoregions shows significant differences (Kruskal-Wallis rank test, P qualitative evaluation of differences in community composition based on recorded presence-absence patterns of 27 different species of plankton, fish and benthic invertebrate also confirms the relevance of the ecoregions as proxies for habitats with common biological characteristics.

  20. Sea-level trend in the South China Sea observed from 20 years of along-track satellite altimetric data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Xu, Qing; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2014-01-01

    The sea-level trend in the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated based on 20 years of along-track data from TOPEX and Jason-1/2 satellite altimetry. The average sea-level rise over all the regions in the study area is observed to have a rate of 5.1 ± 0.8 mm year-1 for the period from 1993 to 2012....... The steric sea level contributes 45% to the observed sea-level trend. These results are consistent with previous studies. In addition, the results demonstrate that the maximum sea-level rise rate of 8.4 mm year-1 is occurring off the east coast of Vietnam and eastern part of SCS. During 2010-2011, the La...... Niña event was highly correlated with the dramatic sea-level rise in the SCS; La Niña events were also associated with the maximum rate of sea rise off the east coast of Vietnam, which occurred during 1993 and 2012. We also evaluated the trends in the geophysical (e.g. dynamical atmospheric correction...

  1. Possible connections of the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lejiang; Zhong, Shiyuan; Winkler, Julie A; Zhou, Mingyu; Lenschow, Donald H; Li, Bingrui; Wang, Xianqiao; Yang, Qinghua

    2017-04-05

    Sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and a key indicator of climate change. A decreasing trend in Arctic sea-ice concentration is evident in recent years, whereas Antarctic sea-ice concentration exhibits a generally increasing trend. Various studies have investigated the underlying causes of the observed trends for each region, but possible linkages between the regional trends have not been studied. Here, we hypothesize that the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice concentration may be linked, at least partially, through interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Although evaluation of this hypothesis is constrained by the limitations of the sea-ice cover record, preliminary statistical analyses of one short-term and two long-term time series of observed and reanalysis sea-ice concentrations data suggest the possibility of the hypothesized linkages. For all three data sets, the leading mode of variability of global sea-ice concentration is positively correlated with the AMO and negatively correlated with the PDO. Two wave trains related to the PDO and the AMO appear to produce anomalous surface-air temperature and low-level wind fields in the two polar regions that contribute to the opposite changes in sea-ice concentration.

  2. Role of the Tropical Pacific in recent Antarctic Sea-Ice Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codron, F.; Bardet, D.; Allouache, C.; Gastineau, G.; Friedman, A. R.; Douville, H.; Voldoire, A.

    2017-12-01

    The recent (up to 2016) trends in Antarctic sea-ice cover - a global increase masking a dipole between the Ross and Bellingshausen-Weddel seas - are still not well understood, and not reproduced by CMIP5 coupled climate models. We here explore the potential role of atmospheric circulation changes around the Amundsen Sea, themselves possibly forced by tropical SSTs, an explanation that has been recently advanced. As a first check on this hypothesis, we compare the atmospheric circulation trends simulated by atmospheric GCMs coupled with an ocean or with imposed SSTs (AMIP experiment from CMIP5); the latter being in theory able to reproduce changes caused by natural SST variability. While coupled models simulate in aggregate trends that project on the SAM structure, strongest in summer, the AMIP simulations add in the winter season a pronounced Amundsen Sea Low signature (and a PNA signature in the northern hemisphere) both consistent with a Niña-like trend in the tropical Pacific. We then use a specific coupled GCM setup, in which surface wind anomalies over the tropical Pacific are strongly nudged towards the observed ones, including their interannual variability, but the model is free to evolve elsewhere. The two GCMs used then simulate a deepening trend in the Amundsen-Sea Low in winter, and are able to reproduce a dipole in sea-ice cover. Further analysis shows that the sea-ice dipole is partially forced by surface heat flux anomalies in early winter - the extent varying with the region and GCM used. The turbulent heat fluxes then act to damp the anomalies in late winter, which may however be maintained by ice-albedo feedbacks.

  3. Steric and mass-induced Mediterranean sea level trends from 14 years of altimetry data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Criado-Aldeanueva, Francisco; Del Río Vera, Jorge; García-Lafuente, Jesús

    2008-02-01

    Long-term series of almost 14 years of altimetry data (1992-2005) have been analysed along with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and temperature and salinity profiles to investigate sea level trends over the Mediterranean Sea. Although sea level variations are mainly driven by the steric contribution, the mass-induced component plays some role in modulating its oscillation. A spatially averaged positive trend of 2.1 ± 0.6 mm/year has been observed, but a change in sign in 2001 seems to appear. Steric effects (mainly on thermal origin) account for ˜ 55% of sea level trend. Although Mediterranean Sea is a semi-enclosed basin, this value is comparable to that reported for the global ocean. Sea level rise is particularly important in the Levantine basin south of Crete with values up to 10 ± 1 mm/year. Other areas of sea level rise are localised throughout the Levantine basin and in the Adriatic and Alboran Seas, with more moderate values. Sea level drop areas are localised in the Algerian basin, between the Balearic Islands and the African coasts and, particularly, in the Ionian basin. In this area, negative trends as high as - 10 ± 0.8 mm/year are detected mainly due to the mass-induced contribution, which suggests decadal changes of surface circulation. The inferred sea level trends have been correlated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices and a low but significant correlation has been detected between sea level in the Levantine and Balearic basins and NAO index.

  4. Sea surface temperature trends in the coastal ocean

    OpenAIRE

    Amos, C.L.; Al-Rashidi, Thamer B.; Rakha, Karim; El-Gamily, Hamdy; Nicholls, R.J.

    2013-01-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the coastal zone are shown to be increasing at rates that exceed the global trends by up to an order of magnitude. This paper compiles some of the evidence of the trends published in the literature. The evidence suggests that urbanization in the coastal hinterland is having a direct effect on SST through increased temperatures of river and lake waters, as well as through heated run-off and thermal effluent discharges from coastal infrastructure. These l...

  5. Chronologic and Geographic Trends of Triangular Fibrocartilage Complex Repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Taichi; Sterbenz, Jennifer M; Chung, Kevin C

    2017-11-01

    This article shows trends in triangular fibrocartilage complex (TFCC) repair since 1990 by geographic area and year. The repair methods presented in the literature were inside-out, outside-in, all-inside, and open repair. The outside-in technique was reported most often for ulnar-side tears, whereas the inside-out technique was reported most frequently for radial-side tears. Recently, a foveal reattachment technique for ulnar-side tears has garnered attention and has been reported with increasing frequency, especially in Asia, because the deepest portion of TFCC, attached to fovea, plays a key role in stabilizing the distal radioulnar joint. Understanding these trends can help clinicians best treat TFCC tears. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Study of geographical trends of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons using pine needles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amigo, José Manuel; Ratola, Nuno; Alves, Arminda

    2011-10-01

    In this work, pine needles were used as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) markers to study the PAHs distribution over several geographical locations in Portugal and over time. Four pine needle sampling campaigns (winter, spring, summer and autumn 2007) were carried out in 29 sites, covering the major urban centres, some industrial points, smaller cities, rural areas and remote locations. Needles from Pinus pinaster Ait. and Pinus pinea L. trees were collected from 2005 and 2006 shoots, corresponding to one up to three years of exposure. Spatial trends of the incidence of PAHs indicate an increase from the remote to the urban and industrial sites. The mean values for the sum of 16 PAHs ranged from 96 ± 30 ng g -1 (dry weight) for remote sites to 866 ± 304 ng g -1 (dw) for industrial sites for P. pinaster needles and from 188 ± 117 ng g -1 (dw) for rural sites to 337 ± 153 ng g -1 (dw) for urban sites for P. pinea. Geographic information system tools and principal component analysis revealed that the contamination patterns of PAHs are somehow related to several socio-geographic parameters of the sampling sites. The geographical trend for the PAHs is similar between seasons in terms of PAH levels, but some diverse behaviour is found on the separation of lighter and heavier PAHs. Differences between P. pinaster and P. pinea needles are stronger in terms of PAH uptake loads than in the site type fingerprints.

  7. Racial and geographic variation in coronary heart disease mortality trends

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    Gillum Richard F

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Magnitudes, geographic and racial variation in trends in coronary heart disease (CHD mortality within the US require updating for health services and health disparities research. Therefore the aim of this study is to present data on these trends through 2007. Methods Data for CHD were analyzed using the US mortality files for 1999–2007 obtained from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Age-adjusted annual death rates were computed for non-Hispanic African Americans (AA and European Americans (EA aged 35–84 years. The direct method was used to standardize rates by age, using the 2000 US standard population. Joinpoint regression models were used to evaluate trends, expressed as annual percent change (APC. Results For both AA men and women the magnitude in CHD mortality is higher compared to EA men and women, respectively. Between 1999 and 2007 the rate declined both in AA and in EA of both sexes in every geographic division; however, relative declines varied. For example, among men, relative average annual declines ranged from 3.2% to 4.7% in AA and from 4.4% to 5.5% in EA among geographic divisions. In women, rates declined more in later years of the decade and in women over 54 years. In 2007, age-adjusted death rate per 100,000 for CHD ranged from 93 in EA women in New England to 345 in AA men in the East North Central division. In EA, areas near the Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers had above average rates. Disparities in trends by urbanization level were also found. For AA in the East North Central division, the APC was similar in large central metro (−4.2, large fringe metro (−4.3, medium metro urbanization strata (−4.4, and small metro (−3.9. APC was somewhat higher in the micropolitan/non-metro (−5.3, and especially the non-core/non-metro (−6.5. For EA in the East South Central division, the APC was higher in large central metro (−5.3, large fringe metro (−4.3 and medium metro

  8. Variability and trends in the Arctic Sea ice cover: Results from different techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino C.; Meier, Walter N.; Gersten, Robert

    2017-08-01

    Variability and trend studies of sea ice in the Arctic have been conducted using products derived from the same raw passive microwave data but by different groups using different algorithms. This study provides consistency assessment of four of the leading products, namely, Goddard Bootstrap (SB2), Goddard NASA Team (NT1), EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF 1.2), and Hadley HadISST 2.2 data in evaluating variability and trends in the Arctic sea ice cover. All four provide generally similar ice patterns but significant disagreements in ice concentration distributions especially in the marginal ice zone and adjacent regions in winter and meltponded areas in summer. The discrepancies are primarily due to different ways the four techniques account for occurrences of new ice and meltponding. However, results show that the different products generally provide consistent and similar representation of the state of the Arctic sea ice cover. Hadley and NT1 data usually provide the highest and lowest monthly ice extents, respectively. The Hadley data also show the lowest trends in ice extent and ice area at -3.88%/decade and -4.37%/decade, respectively, compared to an average of -4.36%/decade and -4.57%/decade for all four. Trend maps also show similar spatial distribution for all four with the largest negative trends occurring at the Kara/Barents Sea and Beaufort Sea regions, where sea ice has been retreating the fastest. The good agreement of the trends especially with updated data provides strong confidence in the quantification of the rate of decline in the Arctic sea ice cover.Plain Language SummaryThe declining Arctic sea ice cover, especially in the summer, has been the center of attention in recent years. Reports on the sea ice cover have been provided by different institutions using basically the same set of satellite data but different techniques for estimating key parameters such as ice concentration, ice extent, and ice area. In

  9. New England's travel and recreation markets: trends in the geographic target markets beyond 2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodney B. Warnick; David C. Bojanic

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this paper was to re-examine and update geographic travel and lifestyle activity market trends for those areas targeted by New England destinations beyond the year 2000. The central theme was to examine in detail the primary, secondary and tertiary geographic markets targeted by New England destinations through both travel behavior and lifestyle behavior...

  10. Sea level trend and variability around Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luu, Q. H.; Tkalich, P.; Tay, T. W.

    2015-08-01

    Sea level rise due to climate change is non-uniform globally, necessitating regional estimates. Peninsular Malaysia is located in the middle of Southeast Asia, bounded from the west by the Malacca Strait, from the east by the South China Sea (SCS), and from the south by the Singapore Strait. The sea level along the peninsula may be influenced by various regional phenomena native to the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific oceans. To examine the variability and trend of sea level around the peninsula, tide gauge records and satellite altimetry are analyzed taking into account vertical land movements (VLMs). At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) around Peninsular Malaysia on the order of 5-25 cm are mainly monsoon driven. Sea levels at eastern and western coasts respond differently to the Asian monsoon: two peaks per year in the Malacca Strait due to South Asian-Indian monsoon; an annual cycle in the remaining region mostly due to the East Asian-western Pacific monsoon. At interannual scale, regional sea level variability in the range of ±6 cm is correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). SLAs in the Malacca Strait side are further correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the range of ±5 cm. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Nino events and positive phases of IOD, whilst rises are correlated with La Nina episodes and negative values of the IOD index. At seasonal to interannual scales, we observe the separation of the sea level patterns in the Singapore Strait, between the Raffles Lighthouse and Tanjong Pagar tide stations, likely caused by a dynamic constriction in the narrowest part. During the observation period 1986-2013, average relative rates of sea level rise derived from tide gauges in Malacca Strait and along the east coast of the peninsula are 3.6±1.6 and 3.7±1.1 mm yr-1, respectively. Correcting for respective VLMs (0.8±2.6 and 0.9±2.2 mm yr-1), their corresponding geocentric sea level rise rates

  11. Variability and Trends in Sea Ice Extent and Ice Production in the Ross Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino; Kwok, Ronald; Martin, Seelye; Gordon, Arnold L.

    2011-01-01

    Salt release during sea ice formation in the Ross Sea coastal regions is regarded as a primary forcing for the regional generation of Antarctic Bottom Water. Passive microwave data from November 1978 through 2008 are used to examine the detailed seasonal and interannual characteristics of the sea ice cover of the Ross Sea and the adjacent Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas. For this period the sea ice extent in the Ross Sea shows the greatest increase of all the Antarctic seas. Variability in the ice cover in these regions is linked to changes in the Southern Annular Mode and secondarily to the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. Over the Ross Sea shelf, analysis of sea ice drift data from 1992 to 2008 yields a positive rate of increase in the net ice export of about 30,000 sq km/yr. For a characteristic ice thickness of 0.6 m, this yields a volume transport of about 20 cu km/yr, which is almost identical, within error bars, to our estimate of the trend in ice production. The increase in brine rejection in the Ross Shelf Polynya associated with the estimated increase with the ice production, however, is not consistent with the reported Ross Sea salinity decrease. The locally generated sea ice enhancement of Ross Sea salinity may be offset by an increase of relatively low salinity of the water advected into the region from the Amundsen Sea, a consequence of increased precipitation and regional glacial ice melt.

  12. CONTEMPORARY TRENDS IN GEOGRAPHICAL EDUCATION

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    M. Wasileva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The geography includes rich, diverse and comprehensive themes that give us an understanding of our changing environment and interconnected world. It includes the study of the physical environment and resources; cultures, economies and societies; people and places; and global development and civic participation. As a subject, geography is particularly valuable because it provides information for exploring contemporary issues from a different perspective. This geographical information affects us all at work and in our daily lives and helps us make informed decisions that shape our future. All these facts result in a wide discussion on many topical issues in contemporary geography didactics. Subjects of research are the new geography and economics curriculum as well as construction of modern learning process. The paper presents briefly some of the current trends and key issues of geodidactics. As central notions we consider and analyze the training/educational goals, geography curriculum, target groups and environment of geography training, training methods as well as the information sources used in geography education. We adhere that all the above-mentioned finds its reflection in planning, analysis and assessment of education and thus in its quality and effectiveness.

  13. Trends in the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in five Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996

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    Maria de Fátima Marinho de Souza

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE - To analyze the trends in risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases in the northern, northeastern, southern, southeastern, and central western Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996. METHODS - Data on mortality due to cardiovascular, cardiac ischemic, and cerebrovascular diseases in 5 Brazilian geographic regions were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Population estimates for the time period from 1978 to 1996 in the 5 Brazilian geographic regions were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method, based on the census data from 1970, 1980, 1991, and the population count of 1996, for each age bracket and sex. Trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression model. RESULTS - Cardiovascular diseases showed a declining trend in the southern, southeastern, and northern Brazilian geographic regions in all age brackets and for both sexes. In the northeastern and central western regions, an increasing trend in the risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases occurred, except for the age bracket from 30 to 39 years, which showed a slight reduction. This resulted from the trends of cardiac ischemic and cerebrovascular diseases. The analysis of the trend in the northeastern and northern regions was impaired by the great proportion of poorly defined causes of death. CONCLUSION - The risk of death due to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and cardiac ischemic diseases decreased in the southern and southeastern regions, which are the most developed regions in the country, and increased in the least developed regions, mainly in the central western region.

  14. Changes in pollution load and environmental trends in the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pawlak, Janet

    1998-12-01

    This publication relates to the quality of the marine environment in the North Sea. Changes in pollution load and environmental trends are analysed. Main themes discussed cover chemical contaminants, temporal trends contaminants in biota, inputs of contaminants to the marine environment, and biological effects of contaminants and biological monitoring. 14 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.

  15. Trends in Sea Ice Cover, Sea Surface Temperature, and Chlorophyll Biomass Across a Marine Distributed Biological Observatory in the Pacific Arctic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, K. E.; Grebmeier, J. M.; Cooper, L. W.; Wood, C.; Panday, P. K.

    2011-12-01

    The northern Bering and Chukchi Seas in the Pacific Arctic Region (PAR) are among the most productive marine ecosystems in the world and act as important carbon sinks, particularly during May and June when seasonal sea ice-associated phytoplankton blooms occur throughout the region. Recent dramatic shifts in seasonal sea ice cover across the PAR should have profound consequences for this seasonal phytoplankton production as well as the intimately linked higher trophic levels. In order to investigate ecosystem responses to these observed recent shifts in sea ice cover, the development of a prototype Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) is now underway in the PAR. The DBO is being developed as an internationally-coordinated change detection array that allows for consistent sampling and monitoring at five spatially explicit biologically productive locations across a latitudinal gradient: (1) DBO-SLP (south of St. Lawrence Island (SLI)), (2) DBO-NBS (north of SLI), (3) DBO-SCS (southern Chukchi Sea), (4) DBO-CCS (central Chukchi Sea), and (5) DBO-BCA (Barrow Canyon Arc). Standardized measurements at many of the DBO sites were made by multiple research cruises during the 2010 and 2011 pilot years, and will be expanded with the development of the DBO in coming years. In order to provide longer-term context for the changes occurring across the PAR, we utilize multi-sensor satellite data to investigate recent trends in sea ice cover, chlorophyll biomass, and sea surface temperatures for each of the five DBO sites, as well as a sixth long-term observational site in the Bering Strait. Satellite observations show that over the past three decades, trends in sea ice cover in the PAR have been heterogeneous, with significant declines in the Chukchi Sea, slight declines in the Bering Strait region, but increases in the northern Bering Sea south of SLI. Declines in the persistence of seasonal sea ice cover in the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait region are due to both earlier sea

  16. Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serreze, Mark C; Stroeve, Julienne

    2015-07-13

    September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  17. Trends in Intense Typhoon Minimum Sea Level Pressure

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    Stephen L. Durden

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A number of recent publications have examined trends in the maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones in various basins. In this communication, the author focuses on typhoons in the western North Pacific. Rather than maximum wind speed, the intensity of the storms is measured by their lifetime minimum sea level pressure (MSLP. Quantile regression is used to test for trends in storms of extreme intensity. The results indicate that there is a trend of decreasing intensity in the most intense storms as measured by MSLP over the period 1951–2010. However, when the data are broken into intervals 1951–1987 and 1987–2010, neither interval has a significant trend, but the intensity quantiles for the two periods differ. Reasons for this are discussed, including the cessation of aircraft reconnaissance in 1987. The author also finds that the average typhoon intensity is greater in El Nino years, while the intensity of the strongest typhoons shows no significant relation to El Nino Southern Oscillation.

  18. Pneumonia mortality trends in all Brazilian geographical regions between 1996 and 2012

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    Rosemeire de Olanda Ferraz

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the temporal trends in pneumonia mortality rates (standardized by age, using the 2010 population of Brazil as the standard in all Brazilian geographical regions between 1996 and 2012. Methods: This was an ecological time-series study examining secondary data from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. Polynomial and joinpoint regression models, and corresponding 95% CIs, were used for trend analysis. Results: The pneumonia mortality rates in the South, Southeast, and Central-West showed a decreasing behavior until 2000, followed by increases, whereas, in the North and Northeast, they showed increasing trends virtually throughout the period studied. There was variation in annual percent change in pneumonia mortality rates in all regions except the North. The Central-West had the greatest decrease in annual percent change between 1996 and 2000, followed by an increase of the same magnitude until 2005. The 80 years and over age group was the one most influencing the trend behavior of pneumonia mortality rates in all regions. Conclusions: In general, pneumonia mortality trends reversed, with an important increase occurring in the years after 2000.

  19. Sea Level Trend and Variability in the Straits of Singapore and Malacca

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luu, Q.; Tkalich, P.

    2013-12-01

    The Straits of Singapore and Malacca (SSM) connect the Andaman Sea located northeast of the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea, the largest marginal sea situated in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Consequently, sea level in the SSM is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale sea level variability is dominant by the Asian monsoon. Interannual sea level signals are modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In the long term, regional sea level is driven by the global climate change. However, relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on regional sea level in the SSM are yet to be quantified. In present study, publicly available tide gauge records and satellite altimetry data are used to derive long-term sea level trend and variability in SSM. We used the data from research-quality stations, including four located in the Singapore Strait (Tanjong Pagar, Raffles Lighthouse, Sultan Shoal and Sembawang) and seven situated in the Malacca Strait (Kelang, Keling, Kukup, Langkawji, Lumut, Penang and Ko Taphao Noi), each one having 25-39 year data up to the year 2011. Harmonic analysis is performed to filter out astronomic tides from the tide gauge records when necessary; and missing data are reconstructed using identified relationships between sea level and the governing phenomena. The obtained sea level anomalies (SLAs) and reconstructed mean sea level are then validated against satellite altimetry data from AVISO. At multi-decadal scale, annual measured sea level in the SSM is varying with global mean sea level, rising for the period 1984-2009 at the rate 1.8-2.3 mm/year in the Singapore Strait and 1.1-2.8 mm/year in the Malacca Strait. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ×5 cm with correlation coefficient

  20. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

    2016-02-04

    Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

  1. Trends in significant wave height and surface wind speed in the China Seas between 1988 and 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Chongwei; Zhang, Ren; Shi, Weilai; Li, Xin; Chen, Xuan

    2017-10-01

    Wind and waves are key components of the climate system as they drive air-sea interactions and influence weather systems and atmospheric circulation. In marine environments, understanding surface wind and wave fields and their evolution over time is important for conducting safe and efficient human activities, such as navigation and engineering. This study considers long-term trends in the sea surface wind speed (WS) and significant wave height (SWH) in the China Seas over the period 1988-2011 using the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) ocean surface wind product and a 24-year hindcast wave dataset obtained from the WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) wave model forced with CCMP winds. The long-term trends in WS and SWH in the China Seas are analyzed over the past 24 years to provide a reference point from which to assess future climate change and offshore wind and wave energy resource development in the region. Results demonstrate that over the period 1988-2011 in the China Seas: 1) WS and SWH showed a significant increasing trend of 3.38 cm s-1 yr-1 and 1.52 cm yr-1, respectively; 2) there were notable regional differences in the long-term trends of WS and SWH; 3) areas with strong increasing trends were located mainly in the middle of the Tsushima Strait, the northern and southern areas of the Taiwan Strait, and in nearshore regions of the northern South China Sea; and 4) the long-term trend in WS was closely associated with El Niño and a significant increase in the occurrence of gale force winds in the region.

  2. Improvement of Global and Regional Mean Sea Level Trends Derived from all Altimetry Missions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ablain, Michael; Benveniste, Jérôme; Faugere, Yannice; Larnicol, Gilles; Cazenave, Anny; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Stammer, Detlef; Timms, Gary

    2012-07-01

    The global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993 using data from satellite altimetry missions. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 is increasing with a global trend of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL Aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from +/- 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend uncertainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in Sea Level Essential Climate Variable Project in the frame of the Climate Change Initiative, an ESA Programme, in addition to activities performed within the SALP/CNES, strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections allowing us to link regional time series together better. These improvements are described at global and regional scale for all the altimetry missions.

  3. New England's travel & tourism markets: trends in the geographic target markets in the 90's

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodney B. Warnick

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this paper was to examine the travel and lifestyle activity market trends to New England in the 90s. The central theme was to fully examine in detail the primary, secondary and tertiary geographic markets targeted by New England destinations.

  4. Sea level differences between Topex/Poseidon altimetry and tide gauges: observed trends and vertical land motions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombard, A.; Dominh, K.; Cazenave, A.; Calmant, S.; Cretaux, J.

    2002-12-01

    Nine year-long (1993-2001) sea level difference time series have been constructed by comparing sea level recorded by tide gauges and Topex/Poseidon altimetry. Although the primary goal of such an analysis is to define a sub network of good quality tide gauges for calibration of satellite altimetry systems, in particular Jason-1. The difference time series displaying large positive or negative trends may give evidence of vertical land motion at the tide gauge site. We have analyzed 98 tide gauge records from the UHSLC. Among them, 42 sites mainly located on open ocean islands, give very good agreement (better than 2 mm/year) with Topex/Poseidon-derived sea level trends. 22 other sites, mainly located along the continental coastlines of the Pacific Ocean, present sea level trends differing by more than 5 mm/year with Topex/Poseidon. Many of these sites are located in active tectonic areas (either in the vicinity of subduction zones or in active volcanic areas), where vertical land motions (either transient or long-term) are expected. For example, this is the case at Kushimoto, Ofunato, Kushiro (Japan), Kodiak Island and Yakutat (Alaska), La Libertad, Callao, Caldera (western south America), and Rabaul (western Pacific). When possible, we compare these observed trends in sea level differences with GPS and/or DORIS observations.

  5. Three modes of interdecadal trends in sea surface temperature and sea surface height

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnanadesikan, A.; Pradal, M.

    2013-12-01

    It might be thought that sea surface height and sea surface temperature would be tightly related. We show that this is not necessarily the case on a global scale. We analysed this relationship in a suite of coupled climate models run under 1860 forcing conditions. The models are low-resolution variants of the GFDL Earth System Model, reported in Galbraith et al. (J. Clim. 2011). 1. Correlated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode corresponds to opening and closing of convective chimneys in the Southern Ocean. As the Southern Ocean destratifies, sea ice formation is suppressed during the winter and more heat is taken up during the summer. This mode of variability is highly correlated with changes in the top of the atmosphere radiative budget and weakly correlated with changes in the deep ocean circulation. 2. Uncorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode of variability is associated with interdecadal variabliity in tropical winds. Changes in the advective flux of heat to the surface ocean play a critical role in driving these changes, which also result in significant local changes in sea level. Changes sea ice over the Southern Ocean still result in changes in solar absorption, but these are now largely cancelled by changes in outgoing longwave radiation. 3. Anticorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperatures. By varying the lateral diffusion coefficient in the ocean model, we are able to enhance and suppress convection in the Southern and Northern Pacific Oceans. Increasing the lateral diffusion coefficients shifts the balance sources of deep water away from the warm salty deep water of the North Atlantic and towards cold fresh deep water from the other two regions. As a result, even though the planet as a whole warms, the deep ocean cools and sea level falls, with changes of order 30 cm over 500 years. The increase in solar absorption

  6. Relative Sea Level Trends Along the Coast of the Bay of Bengal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, M.; Calmant, S.; Papa, F.; Delebecque, C.; Islam, A. S.; Shum, C. K.

    2016-12-01

    In the coastal belt of the Bay of Bengal, the sea level rise is one of a major threat, linked to climate change, which drastically affects the livelihoods of millions of people. A comprehensive understanding of sea level trends and its variability in this region is therefore crucial and should help to anticipate the impacts of climate change and implement adaptation strategies. This region is bordered mostly by Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Thailand. Here, we revisit the sea level changes in the Bay of Bengal region from tide gauges and satellite altimetry over the period 1993-2014. The 23 monthly mean tide gauge records, used in this study, are retrieved from PSMSL (15 records) and supplemented with Bangladeshi observations (8 records). We show that, over the satellite altimetry era, the sea level interannual/decadal variability is mainly due to ocean thermal expansion variability driven by IOD/ENSO events and their low frequency modulation. We focus on relative sea level rise at major coastal cities and try to separate the climatic signal (long term trend plus interannual/decadal variability) from local effects, in particular vertical land movements. Results from GPS are analysed where available. When no such data exist, vertical land movements are deduced from the combined use of tide gauge and altimetry data. While the analysis is performed over the whole region, a particular attention is given to the low-lyingBangladesh's coastal area.

  7. Evaluation and adjustment of altimeter measurement and numerical hindcast in wave height trend estimation in China's coastal seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuiqing; Guan, Shoude; Hou, Yijun; Liu, Yahao; Bi, Fan

    2018-05-01

    A long-term trend of significant wave height (SWH) in China's coastal seas was examined based on three datasets derived from satellite measurements and numerical hindcasts. One set of altimeter data were obtained from the GlobWave, while the other two datasets of numerical hindcasts were obtained from the third-generation wind wave model, WAVEWATCH III, forced by wind fields from the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) and NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The mean and extreme wave trends were estimated for the period 1992-2010 with respect to the annual mean and the 99th-percentile values of SWH, respectively. The altimeter wave trend estimates feature considerable uncertainties owing to the sparse sampling rate. Furthermore, the extreme wave trend tends to be overestimated because of the increasing sampling rate over time. Numerical wave trends strongly depend on the quality of the wind fields, as the CCMP waves significantly overestimate the wave trend, whereas the CFSR waves tend to underestimate the trend. Corresponding adjustments were applied which effectively improved the trend estimates from the altimeter and numerical data. The adjusted results show generally increasing mean wave trends, while the extreme wave trends are more spatially-varied, from decreasing trends prevailing in the South China Sea to significant increasing trends mainly in the East China Sea.

  8. Description and assessment of regional sea-level trends and variability from altimetry and tide gauges at the northern Australian coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gharineiat, Zahra; Deng, Xiaoli

    2018-05-01

    This paper aims at providing a descriptive view of the low-frequency sea-level changes around the northern Australian coastline. Twenty years of sea-level observations from multi-mission satellite altimetry and tide gauges are used to characterize sea-level trends and inter-annual variability over the study region. The results show that the interannual sea-level fingerprint in the northern Australian coastline is closely related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events, with the greatest influence on the Gulf Carpentaria, Arafura Sea, and the Timor Sea. The basin average of 14 tide-gauge time series is in strong agreement with the basin average of the altimeter data, with a root mean square difference of 18 mm and a correlation coefficient of 0.95. The rate of the sea-level trend over the altimetry period (6.3 ± 1.4 mm/yr) estimated from tide gauges is slightly higher than that (6.1 ± 1.3 mm/yr) from altimetry in the time interval 1993-2013, which can vary with the length of the time interval. Here we provide new insights into examining the significance of sea-level trends by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. This test is applied to assess if the trends are significant (upward or downward). Apart from a positive rate of sea-level trends are not statistically significant in this region due to the effects of natural variability. The findings suggest that altimetric trends are not significant along the coasts and some parts of the Gulf Carpentaria (14°S-8°S), where geophysical corrections (e.g., ocean tides) cannot be estimated accurately and altimeter measurements are contaminated by reflections from the land.

  9. Variability, trends, and predictability of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serreze, Mark C.; Crawford, Alex D.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; Woodgate, Rebecca A.

    2016-10-01

    As assessed over the period 1979-2014, the date that sea ice retreats to the shelf break (150 m contour) of the Chukchi Sea has a linear trend of -0.7 days per year. The date of seasonal ice advance back to the shelf break has a steeper trend of about +1.5 days per year, together yielding an increase in the open water period of 80 days. Based on detrended time series, we ask how interannual variability in advance and retreat dates relate to various forcing parameters including radiation fluxes, temperature and wind (from numerical reanalyses), and the oceanic heat inflow through the Bering Strait (from in situ moorings). Of all variables considered, the retreat date is most strongly correlated (r ˜ 0.8) with the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow. After testing a suite of statistical linear models using several potential predictors, the best model for predicting the date of retreat includes only the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow, which explains 68% of retreat date variance. The best model predicting the ice advance date includes the July through September inflow and the date of retreat, explaining 67% of advance date variance. We address these relationships by discussing heat balances within the Chukchi Sea, and the hypothesis of oceanic heat transport triggering ocean heat uptake and ice-albedo feedback. Developing an operational prediction scheme for seasonal retreat and advance would require timely acquisition of Bering Strait heat inflow data. Predictability will likely always be limited by the chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation patterns.

  10. Transport and geographical position of the big and average cities of the Ukrainian Black Sea region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. O. Shulevskyi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available There were features of the transport and geographical position of large and average cities of the Ukrainian Black Sea region described in the article. The situation of cities in relation to the existing network of main types of transport connections like road, rail, water, aviation was analyzed. The location of cities in relation to regional centers, the regional center of Odessa, the capital of the country and the state border were characterized. The situation of cities in relation to international transport corridors and the international E-road network was examined. The cities with the most and least favorable transport and geographical location in the region were highlighted.

  11. New England's travel and tourism markets: trends in geographic target markets beyond the 90s--the y2k decade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodney B. Warnick

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the travel and lifestyle activity trends in the years beyond the 1990s--the Y2K decade--for geographic markets of interest to New England travel destinations. The central theme is examining New England's potential primary, secondary, and tertiary geographic markets in detail.

  12. Epidemiologic trends and geographic patterns of fatal opioid intoxications in Connecticut, USA: 1997-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Traci C; Grau, Lauretta E; Carver, H Wayne; Kinzly, Mark; Heimer, Robert

    2011-06-01

    The leading cause of injury death among adults in Connecticut (CT), USA is drug poisonings. We analyzed the epidemiology and geographic distribution of opioid-involved accidental drug-involved intoxication deaths ("overdoses") in CT over an 11-year period. We reviewed data from 1997 to 2007 on all adult accidental/undetermined drug intoxication deaths in CT that were referred to the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner (OCME). Regression analyses were conducted to uncover risk factors for fatal opioid-involved intoxications and to compare heroin- to prescription opioid- and methadone-involved deaths. Death locations were mapped to visualize differences in the geographic patterns of overdose by opioid type. Of the 2900 qualifying deaths, 2231 (77%) involved opioids. Trends over time revealed increases in total opioid-related deaths although heroin-related deaths remained constant. Methadone, oxycodone and fentanyl, the most frequently cited prescription opioids, exhibited significant increases in opioid deaths. Prescription opioid-only deaths were more likely to involve other medications (e.g., benzodiazepines) and to have occurred among residents of a suburban or small town location, compared to heroin-involved or methadone-involved deaths. Heroin-only deaths tended to occur among non-Whites, were more likely to involve alcohol or cocaine and to occur in public locations and large cities. The epidemiology of fatal opioid overdose in CT exhibits distinct longitudinal, risk factor, and geographic differences by opioid type. Each of these trends has implications for public health and prevention efforts. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Geographical diversity of cause-of-death patterns and trends in Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Shkolnikov

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper performs a systematic analysis of all currently available Russian data on mortality by region, census year (1970, 1979, 1989, and 1994 and cause of death. It investigates what links may be found between these geographical variations in cause-specific mortality, the negative general trends observed since 1965, and the wide fluctuations of the last two decades. For that, four two-year periods of observation were selected where it was possible to calculate fairly reliable mortality indicators by geographic units using census data for 1970, 1979, 1989, and micro-census data for 1994, and used a clustering model. Behind the complexity of the studied universe, three main conclusions appeared. Firstly, in European Russia, there is a stark contrast between south-west and north-east, both in terms of total mortality and of cause-of-death patterns. Secondly, analysis of overall cause-of-death patterns for all periods combined clearly confirms that contrast at the whole country level by the prolongation of the southern part of European Russia through the continuation of the black soil ("chernoziom" belt along the Kazakhstan border, while the rest of Siberia presents a radically different picture to European Russia. Thirdly, while it is difficult to infer any permanent geographical pattern of mortality from that very fluctuating piece of history, 1988-89 appears to be a base period for at least the entire period from 1969-1994.

  14. Closing the sea level budget on a regional scale: Trends and variability on the Northwestern European continental shelf.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo; Kleinherenbrink, Marcel; Wada, Yoshihide; van den Broeke, Michiel; Marzeion, Ben

    2016-10-28

    Long-term trends and decadal variability of sea level in the North Sea and along the Norwegian coast have been studied over the period 1958-2014. We model the spatially nonuniform sea level and solid earth response to large-scale ice melt and terrestrial water storage changes. GPS observations, corrected for the solid earth deformation, are used to estimate vertical land motion. We find a clear correlation between sea level in the North Sea and along the Norwegian coast and open ocean steric variability in the Bay of Biscay and west of Portugal, which is consistent with the presence of wind-driven coastally trapped waves. The observed nodal cycle is consistent with tidal equilibrium. We are able to explain the observed sea level trend over the period 1958-2014 well within the standard error of the sum of all contributing processes, as well as the large majority of the observed decadal sea level variability.

  15. The U.S. mussel watch : nationwide geographic and long-term trends of PAHs in coastal mussels and oysters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mearns, A.J.; Lauenstein, G.C.; O'Connor, T.P.

    1998-01-01

    The issue of fishery evaluation criteria following oil spills in lakes, rivers and seas was discussed. This paper focused on the problem of developing criteria for closing and opening fisheries during responses to oil spills. Closures are implemented to prevent the public from consuming toxic chemicals such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and to prevent tainted sea food products from entering the marketplace. A U.S. nationwide program, called Mussel Watch Project of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Status and Trends (NS and T) Program, was established to monitor spatial distribution and temporal trends of contaminant concentrations at over 200 coastal and estuarian sites around the U.S. The program has analyzed concentrations of 44 PAHs. The trends of PAHs was compared with other pollutants. An assessment of the extent to which PAHs in mollusks reflect population density was discussed. 16 refs., 4 tabs

  16. Epidemiologic trends and geographic patterns of fatal opioid intoxications in Connecticut, USA: 1997 – 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Traci C.; Grau, Lauretta E.; Carver, H. Wayne; Kinzly, Mark; Heimer, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Background The leading cause of injury death among adults in Connecticut (CT), USA is drug poisonings. We analyzed the epidemiology and geographic distribution of opioid-involved accidental drug-involved intoxication deaths (“overdoses”) in CT over an 11-year period. Methods We reviewed data from 1997 to 2007 on all adult accidental/undetermined drug intoxication deaths in CT that were referred to the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner (OCME). Regression analyses were conducted to uncover risk factors for fatal opioid-involved intoxications and to compare heroin- to prescription opioid- and methadone-involved deaths. Death locations were mapped to visualize differences in the geographic patterns of overdose by opioid type. Results Of the 2900 qualifying deaths, 2231 (77%) involved opioids. Trends over time revealed increases in total opioid-related deaths although heroin-related deaths remained constant. Methadone, oxycodone and fentanyl, the most frequently cited prescription opioids, exhibited significant increases in opioid deaths. Prescription opioid-only deaths were more likely to involve other medications (e.g., benzodiazepines) and to have occurred among residents of a suburban or small town location, compared to heroin-involved or methadone-involved deaths. Heroin-only deaths tended to occur among non-Whites, were more likely to involve alcohol or cocaine and to occur in public locations and large cities. Conclusions The epidemiology of fatal opioid overdose in CT exhibits distinct longitudinal, risk factor, and geographic differences by opioid type. Each of these trends has implications for public health and prevention efforts. PMID:21131140

  17. Development Trends of Cartography and Geographic Information Engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WANG Jiayao

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Aimed at the problems of cartography and geographic information engineering and increasing demands of national and military infomationization construction, the paper proposes six hotspots on the research of cartography and geographic information engineering for the future on the foundation of analyzing the development track of cartology, which are heterogeneous geospatial data assimilation, transferring from emphasizing geography infor-mation gaining to user-oriented geographic information deep processing, web or grid geographic information service. intelligent spatial data generalization. integration of GIS and VGE. cartography and geographic information engineering theory system with multi-mode(Map,.GlS..VGE spatial-temporal integrated cognition as the core. And discusses the necessity ,existing groundwork and research contents on studying these hotspots.

  18. Geographic Variations and Time Trends in Cancer Treatments in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Jason C; Chang, Sheng-Mao; Lu, Christine Y

    2017-08-02

    Targeted therapies have become important treatment options for cancer care in many countries. This study aimed to examine recent trends in utilization of antineoplastic drugs, particularly the use of targeted therapies for treatment of cancer, by geographic region in Taiwan (northern, midwestern, southern, and eastern regions and the outer islands). This was a retrospective observational study of antineoplastic agents using 2009-2012 quarterly claims data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. Yearly market shares by prescription volume and costs for targeted therapies among total antineoplastic agents by region were estimated. We used multivariate regression model and ANOVA to examine variations in utilization of targeted therapies between geographic regions and used ARIMA models to estimate longitudinal trends. Population-adjusted use and costs of antineoplastic drugs (including targeted therapies) were highest in the southern region of Taiwan and lowest in the outer islands. We found a 4-fold difference in use of antineoplastic drugs and a 49-fold difference in use of targeted therapies between regions if the outer islands were included. There were minimal differences in use of antineoplastic drugs between other regions with about a 2-fold difference in use of targeted therapies. Without considering the outer islands, the market share by prescription volume and costs of targeted therapies increased almost 2-fold (1.84-1.90) and 1.5-fold (1.26-1.61) respectively between 2009 and 2012. Furthermore, region was not significantly associated with use of antineoplastic agents or use of targeted therapies after adjusting for confounders. Region was associated with costs of antineoplastic agents but it was not associated with costs of targeted therapies after confounding adjustments. Use of antineoplastic drugs overall and use of targeted therapies for treatment of cancer varied somewhat between regions in Taiwan; use was notably low in the outer

  19. The relationship between genus richness and geographic area in Late Cretaceous marine biotas: epicontinental sea versus open-ocean-facing settings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne J Lagomarcino

    Full Text Available For present-day biotas, close relationships have been documented between the number of species in a given region and the area of the region. To date, however, there have been only limited studies of these relationships in the geologic record, particularly for ancient marine biotas. The recent development of large-scale marine paleontological databases, in conjunction with enhanced geographical mapping tools, now allow for their investigation. At the same time, there has been renewed interest in comparing the environmental and paleobiological properties of two broad-scale marine settings: epicontinental seas, broad expanses of shallow water covering continental areas, and open-ocean-facing settings, shallow shelves and coastlines that rim ocean basins. Recent studies indicate that spatial distributions of taxa and the kinetics of taxon origination and extinction may have differed in these two settings. Against this backdrop, we analyze regional Genus-Area Relationships (GARs of Late Cretaceous marine invertebrates in epicontinental sea and open-ocean settings using data from the Paleobiology Database. We present a new method for assessing GARs that is particularly appropriate for fossil data when the geographic distribution of these data is patchy and uneven. Results demonstrate clear relationships between genus richness and area for regions worldwide, but indicate that as area increases, genus richness increases more per unit area in epicontinental seas than in open-ocean settings. This difference implies a greater degree of compositional heterogeneity as a function of geographic area in epicontinental sea settings, a finding that is consistent with the emerging understanding of physical differences in the nature of water masses between the two marine settings.

  20. Non-destructive geographical traceability of sea cucumber (Apostichopus japonicus) using near infrared spectroscopy combined with chemometric methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiuhan; Cai, Rui; Wang, Shisheng; Tang, Bo; Li, Yueqing; Zhao, Weijie

    2018-01-01

    Sea cucumber is the major tonic seafood worldwide, and geographical origin traceability is an important part of its quality and safety control. In this work, a non-destructive method for origin traceability of sea cucumber ( Apostichopus japonicus ) from northern China Sea and East China Sea using near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and multivariate analysis methods was proposed. Total fat contents of 189 fresh sea cucumber samples were determined and partial least-squares (PLS) regression was used to establish the quantitative NIRS model. The ordered predictor selection algorithm was performed to select feasible wavelength regions for the construction of PLS and identification models. The identification model was developed by principal component analysis combined with Mahalanobis distance and scaling to the first range algorithms. In the test set of the optimum PLS models, the root mean square error of prediction was 0.45, and correlation coefficient was 0.90. The correct classification rates of 100% were obtained in both identification calibration model and test model. The overall results indicated that NIRS method combined with chemometric analysis was a suitable tool for origin traceability and identification of fresh sea cucumber samples from nine origins in China.

  1. Conflict Resolution Trends in the Black Sea Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanna Shelest

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The article assesses the main trends of the various conflict resolution processes in the Black Sea region. It emphasizes the transformation of the mediators’ role, including the increase of the EU efforts in the various peace processes. The author states that the absence of military actions, the narrowness of the existing peace formats and competition between the various mediating parties for leadership lead to the militarization of the region, the absence of the conflicts’ ‘ripeness’, new peace initiatives and an ‘all or nothing’ position on the part of the conflicting parties.

  2. Sea-level-rise trends off the Indian coasts during the last two decades

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Nidheesh, A.G.; Lengaigne, M.

    The present communication discusses sea-level-rise trends in the north Indian Ocean, particularly off the Indian coasts, based on estimates derived from satellite altimeter and tide-gauge data. Altimeter data analysis over the 1993–2012 period...

  3. Recent Developments and Future Trends in Volunteered Geographic Information Research: The Case of OpenStreetMap

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascal Neis

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available User-generated content (UGC platforms on the Internet have experienced a steep increase in data contributions in recent years. The ubiquitous usage of location-enabled devices, such as smartphones, allows contributors to share their geographic information on a number of selected online portals. The collected information is oftentimes referred to as volunteered geographic information (VGI. One of the most utilized, analyzed and cited VGI-platforms, with an increasing popularity over the past few years, is OpenStreetMap (OSM, whose main goal it is to create a freely available geographic database of the world. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the latest developments in VGI research, focusing on its collaboratively collected geodata and corresponding contributor patterns. Additionally, trends in the realm of OSM research are discussed, highlighting which aspects need to be investigated more closely in the near future.

  4. Anomalous Arctic surface wind patterns and their impacts on September sea ice minima and trend

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bingyi Wu

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We used monthly mean surface wind data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset during the period 1979–2010 to describe the first two patterns of Arctic surface wind variability by means of the complex vector empirical orthogonal function (CVEOF analysis. The first two patterns respectively account for 31 and 16% of its total anomalous kinetic energy. The leading pattern consists of the two subpatterns: the northern Laptev Sea (NLS pattern and the Arctic dipole (AD pattern. The second pattern contains the northern Kara Sea (NKS pattern and the central Arctic (CA pattern. Over the past two decades, the combined dynamical forcing of the first two patterns has contributed to Arctic September sea ice extent (SIE minima and its declining trend. September SIE minima are mainly associated with the negative phase of the AD pattern and the positive phase of the CA pattern during the summer (July to September season, and both phases coherently show an anomalous anticyclone over the Arctic Ocean. Wind patterns affect September SIE through their frequency and intensity. The negative trend in September SIE over the past two decades is associated with increased frequency and enhanced intensity of the CA pattern during the melting season from April to September. Thus, it cannot be simply attributed to the AD anomaly characterised by the second empirical orthogonal function mode of sea level pressure north of 70°N. The CA pattern exhibited interdecadal variability in the late 1990s, and an anomalous cyclone prevailed before 1997 and was then replaced by an anomalous anticyclone over the Arctic Ocean that is consistent with the rapid decline trend in September SIE. This paper provides an alternative way to identify the dominant patterns of climate variability and investigate their associated Arctic sea ice variability from a dynamical perspective. Indeed, this study

  5. Tracking multidecadal trends in sea level using coral microatolls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majewski, Jedrzej; Pham, Dat; Meltzner, Aron; Switzer, Adam; Horton, Benjamin; Heng, Shu Yun; Warrick, David

    2015-04-01

    Tracking multidecadal trends in sea level using coral microatolls Jędrzej M. Majewski 1, Dat T. Pham1, Aron J. Meltzner 1, Adam D. Switzer 1, Benjamin P. Horton2, Shu Yun Heng1, David Warrick3, 1 Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 2 Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA 3 Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA Coral microatolls can be used to study relative sea-level change at multidecadal timescales associated with vertical land movements, climate induced sea-level rise and other oceanographic phenomena such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) with the assumption that the highest level of survival (HLS) of coral microatolls track sea level over the course of their lifetimes. In this study we compare microatoll records covering from as early as 1883 through 2013, from two sites in Indonesia, with long records (>20 years) from proximal tide gauges, satellite altimetry, and other sea-level reconstructions. We compared the HLS time series derived from open-ocean and moated (or ponded) microatolls on tectonically stable Belitung Island and a potentially tectonically active setting in Mapur Island, with sea-level reconstructions for 1950-2011. The sea-level reconstructions are based on ground and satellite measurements, combining a tide model with the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) model. Our results confirm that open-ocean microatolls do track low water levels at multi decadal time scales and can be used as a proxy for relative sea level (RSL) over time. However, microatolls that are even partially moated are unsuitable and do not track RSL; rather, their growth patterns likely reflect changes in the elevation of the sill of the local pond, as reported by earlier authors. Our ongoing efforts will include an attempt to recognize similarities in moated

  6. Trend Analysis of Nitrogen Deposition to Baltic Sea and its sub basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semeena, V. S.; Jerzy, Bartnicki

    2009-04-01

    Since the beginning of last century, Baltic Sea has changed from a clear-water sea into a eutrophic marine environment. Eutrophication is the major problem in the Baltic Sea. Excessive nitrogen and phosphorus loads coming from land-based sources within and outside the catchment area of the bordering countries of the Baltic Sea are the main cause of the eutrophication in the sea. Even though a major part of nitrogen(75%) and phosphorus load(95%) enter the sea via rivers or as water-born discharges, 25% of the nitrogen load comes as atmospheric deposition. Numerical models are the best tools to measure atmospheric deposition into sea waters. We have used the latest version of the Unified EMEP model - which has been developed at the EMEP/MSC-W (Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - West of EMEP) for simulating atmospheric transport and deposition of acidifying and eutrophying compounds as well as photo-oxidants in Europe- to study the trends in atmospheric deposition of nitrogen into Baltic Sea for the period 1995-2006. The model domain covers Europe and the Atlantic Ocean. The model grid (of the size 170×133) has a horizontal resolution of 50 km at 60o N, which is consistent with the resolution of emission data reported to CLRTAP. Approximately 10 of these layers are placed below 2 km to obtain high resolution of the boundary layer which is of special importance to the long range transport of air pollution. EMEP model has been thouroughly validated (Fagerli et.al.[1], Simpson et.al.[2], Simpson et.al.[3] ) The contribution of deposition of nitrogen into Baltic Sea from each of the bordering countries of the Baltic Sea and the deposition trends for the period 1995-2006 has been analysed and the results will be presented. References: [1]. Fagerli H., Simpson D. and Aas W.: Model performance for sulphur and nitrogen compounds for the period 1980 to 2000. [In:] L. Tarraśon, (editor), Transboundary Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground Level Ozone in Europe. EMEP

  7. Arctic sea ice decline contributes to thinning lake ice trend in northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexeev, Vladimir; Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Cai, Lei

    2016-01-01

    Field measurements, satellite observations, and models document a thinning trend in seasonal Arctic lake ice growth, causing a shift from bedfast to floating ice conditions. September sea ice concentrations in the Arctic Ocean since 1991 correlate well (r = +0.69,p Research and Forecasting model output produced a 7% decrease in lake ice growth when 2007/08 sea ice was imposed on 1991/92 climatology and a 9% increase in lake ice growth for the opposing experiment. Here, we clearly link early winter 'ocean-effect' snowfall and warming to reduced lake ice growth. Future reductions in sea ice extent will alter hydrological, biogeochemical, and habitat functioning of Arctic lakes and cause sub-lake permafrost thaw.

  8. Impacts of altimeter corrections on local linear sea level trends around Taiwan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2013-01-01

    .e. the inverted barometer correction, wet tropospheric correction, and sea state bias correction, have significant impacts on the determination of local LSLT. The trend of default corrections contribute more than 1.4 mm year-1 along the coastline of China mainland and 2.1 mm year-1 to local LSLT in the Taiwan...

  9. Decadal trends in deep ocean salinity and regional effects on steric sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purkey, S. G.; Llovel, W.

    2017-12-01

    We present deep (below 2000 m) and abyssal (below 4000 m) global ocean salinity trends from the 1990s through the 2010s and assess the role of deep salinity in local and global sea level budgets. Deep salinity trends are assessed using all deep basins with available full-depth, high-quality hydrographic section data that have been occupied two or more times since the 1980s through either the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) Hydrographic Program or the Global Ship-Based Hydrographic Investigations Program (GO-SHIP). All salinity data is calibrated to standard seawater and any intercruise offsets applied. While the global mean deep halosteric contribution to sea level rise is close to zero (-0.017 +/- 0.023 mm/yr below 4000 m), there is a large regional variability with the southern deep basins becoming fresher and northern deep basins becoming more saline. This meridional gradient in the deep salinity trend reflects different mechanisms driving the deep salinity variability. The deep Southern Ocean is freshening owing to a recent increased flux of freshwater to the deep ocean. Outside of the Southern Ocean, the deep salinity and temperature changes are tied to isopycnal heave associated with a falling of deep isopycnals in recent decades. Therefore, regions of the ocean with a deep salinity minimum are experiencing both a halosteric contraction with a thermosteric expansion. While the thermosteric expansion is larger in most cases, in some regions the halosteric compensates for as much as 50% of the deep thermal expansion, making a significant contribution to local sea level rise budgets.

  10. Methylmercury in fish from the South China Sea: geographical distribution and biomagnification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Aijia; Zhang, Wei; Xu, Zhanzhou; Huang, Liangmin; Wang, Wen-Xiong

    2013-12-15

    We conducted a large-scale investigation of methylmercury (MeHg) in a total of 628 marine wild fish covering 46 different species collected from the South China Sea between 2008 and 2009. Biological and ecological characteristics such as size (length and wet weight), feeding habit, habitat, and stable isotope (δ(15)N) were examined to explain MeHg bioaccumulation in marine fish and their geographical distribution. MeHg levels in the muscle tissues of the 628 individuals ranged from 0.010 to 1.811 μg/g dry wt. Log10MeHg concentration was significantly related to their length and wet weight. Feeding habit and habitat were the primary factors influencing MeHg bioaccumulation. Demersal fish were more likely to be contaminated with MeHg than the epipelagic and mesopelagic varieties. Linear relationships were obtained between Log10(MeHg) and δ(15)N only for one location, indicating that biomagnification was site-specific. Results from this study suggest that dietary preference and trophic structure were the main factors affecting MeHg bioaccumulation in marine fish from the South China Sea. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Trends in Arctic Sea Ice Volume 2010-2013 from CryoSat-2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilling, R.; Ridout, A.; Wingham, D.; Shepherd, A.; Haas, C.; Farrell, S. L.; Schweiger, A. J.; Zhang, J.; Giles, K.; Laxon, S.

    2013-12-01

    Satellite records show a decline in Arctic sea ice extent over the past three decades with a record minimum in September 2012, and results from the Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) suggest that this has been accompanied by a reduction in volume. We use three years of measurements recorded by the European Space Agency CryoSat-2 (CS-2) mission, validated with in situ data, to generate estimates of seasonal variations and inter-annual trends in Arctic sea ice volume between 2010 and 2013. The CS-2 estimates of sea ice thickness agree with in situ estimates derived from upward looking sonar measurements of ice draught and airborne measurements of ice thickness and freeboard to within 0.1 metres. Prior to the record minimum in summer 2012, autumn and winter Arctic sea ice volume had fallen by ~1300 km3 relative to the previous year. Using the full 3-year period of CS-2 observations, we estimate that winter Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by ~700 km3/yr since 2010, approximately twice the average rate since 1980 as predicted by the PIOMAS.

  12. New Visualizations Highlight New Information on the Contrasting Arctic and Antarctic Sea-Ice Trends Since the Late 1970s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.

    2016-01-01

    Month-by-month ranking of 37 years (1979-2015) of satellite-derived sea-ice extents in the Arctic and Antarctic reveals interesting new details in the overall trends toward decreasing sea-ice coverage in the Arctic and increasing sea-ice coverage in the Antarctic. The Arctic decreases are so definitive that there has not been a monthly record high in Arctic sea-ice extents in any month since 1986, a time period during which there have been 75 monthly record lows. The Antarctic, with the opposite but weaker trend toward increased ice extents, experienced monthly record lows in 5 months of 1986, then 6 later monthly record lows scattered through the dataset, with the last two occurring in 2006, versus 45 record highs since 1986. However, in the last three years of the 1979-2015 dataset, the downward trends in Arctic sea-ice extents eased up, with no new record lows in any month of 2013 or 2014 and only one record low in 2015,while the upward trends in Antarctic ice extents notably strengthened, with new record high ice extents in 4 months (August-November) of 2013, in 6 months (April- September) of 2014, and in 3 months (January, April, and May) of 2015. Globally, there have been only 3 monthly record highs since 1986 (only one since 1988), whereas there have been 43 record lows, although the last record lows (in the 1979-2015 dataset) occurred in 2012.

  13. Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ge Peng

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available An ice-free Arctic summer would have pronounced impacts on global climate, coastal habitats, national security, and the shipping industry. Rapid and accelerated Arctic sea ice loss has placed the reality of an ice-free Arctic summer even closer to the present day. Accurate projection of the first Arctic ice-free summer year is extremely important for business planning and climate change mitigation, but the projection can be affected by many factors. Using an inter-calibrated satellite sea ice product, this article examines the sensitivity of decadal trends of Arctic sea ice extent and statistical projections of the first occurrence of an ice-free Arctic summer. The projection based on the linear trend of the last 20 years of data places the first Arctic ice-free summer year at 2036, 12 years earlier compared to that of the trend over the last 30 years. The results from a sensitivity analysis of six commonly used curve-fitting models show that the projected timings of the first Arctic ice-free summer year tend to be earlier for exponential, Gompertz, quadratic, and linear with lag fittings, and later for linear and log fittings. Projections of the first Arctic ice-free summer year by all six statistical models appear to converge to the 2037 ± 6 timeframe, with a spread of 17 years, and the earliest first ice-free Arctic summer year at 2031.

  14. Sea-ice transport driving Southern Ocean salinity and its recent trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haumann, F Alexander; Gruber, Nicolas; Münnich, Matthias; Frenger, Ivy; Kern, Stefan

    2016-09-01

    Recent salinity changes in the Southern Ocean are among the most prominent signals of climate change in the global ocean, yet their underlying causes have not been firmly established. Here we propose that trends in the northward transport of Antarctic sea ice are a major contributor to these changes. Using satellite observations supplemented by sea-ice reconstructions, we estimate that wind-driven northward freshwater transport by sea ice increased by 20 ± 10 per cent between 1982 and 2008. The strongest and most robust increase occurred in the Pacific sector, coinciding with the largest observed salinity changes. We estimate that the additional freshwater for the entire northern sea-ice edge entails a freshening rate of -0.02 ± 0.01 grams per kilogram per decade in the surface and intermediate waters of the open ocean, similar to the observed freshening. The enhanced rejection of salt near the coast of Antarctica associated with stronger sea-ice export counteracts the freshening of both continental shelf and newly formed bottom waters due to increases in glacial meltwater. Although the data sources underlying our results have substantial uncertainties, regional analyses and independent data from an atmospheric reanalysis support our conclusions. Our finding that northward sea-ice freshwater transport is also a key determinant of the mean salinity distribution in the Southern Ocean further underpins the importance of the sea-ice-induced freshwater flux. Through its influence on the density structure of the ocean, this process has critical consequences for the global climate by affecting the exchange of heat, carbon and nutrients between the deep ocean and surface waters.

  15. Methylmercury in fish from the South China Sea: Geographical distribution and biomagnification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Aijia; Zhang, Wei; Xu, Zhanzhou; Huang, Liangmin; Wang, Wen-Xiong

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • A large-scale investigation of MeHg in 46 species of marine wild fish from South China Sea. • Log 10 MeHg concentration was significantly related to their length and wet weight. • Feeding habit and habitat were the primary factors influencing MeHg bioaccumulation. • Demersal fish were more likely to be contaminated with MeHg than the epipelagic and mesopelagic species. • Biomagnification of MeHg was site-specific. -- Abstract: We conducted a large-scale investigation of methylmercury (MeHg) in a total of 628 marine wild fish covering 46 different species collected from the South China Sea between 2008 and 2009. Biological and ecological characteristics such as size (length and wet weight), feeding habit, habitat, and stable isotope (δ 15 N) were examined to explain MeHg bioaccumulation in marine fish and their geographical distribution. MeHg levels in the muscle tissues of the 628 individuals ranged from 0.010 to 1.811 μg/g dry wt. Log 10 MeHg concentration was significantly related to their length and wet weight. Feeding habit and habitat were the primary factors influencing MeHg bioaccumulation. Demersal fish were more likely to be contaminated with MeHg than the epipelagic and mesopelagic varieties. Linear relationships were obtained between Log 10 (MeHg) and δ 15 N only for one location, indicating that biomagnification was site-specific. Results from this study suggest that dietary preference and trophic structure were the main factors affecting MeHg bioaccumulation in marine fish from the South China Sea

  16. Modal recovery of sea-level variability in the South China Sea using merged altimeter data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Haoyu; Chen, Ge

    2015-09-01

    Using 20 years (1993-2012) of merged data recorded by contemporary multi-altimeter missions, a variety of sea-level variability modes are recovered in the South China Sea employing three-dimensional harmonic extraction. In terms of the long-term variation, the South China Sea is estimated to have a rising sea-level linear trend of 5.39 mm/a over these 20 years. Among the modes extracted, the seven most statistically significant periodic or quasi-periodic modes are identified as principal modes. The geographical distributions of the magnitudes and phases of the modes are displayed. In terms of intraannual and annual regimes, two principal modes with strict semiannual and annual periods are found, with the annual variability having the largest amplitudes among the seven modes. For interannual and decadal regimes, five principal modes at approximately 18, 21, 23, 28, and 112 months are found with the most mode-active region being to the east of Vietnam. For the phase distributions, a series of amphidromes are observed as twins, termed "amphidrome twins", comprising rotating dipole systems. The stability of periodic modes is investigated employing joint spatiotemporal analysis of latitude/longitude sections. Results show that all periodic modes are robust, revealing the richness and complexity of sea-level modes in the South China Sea.

  17. Inferring regional vertical crustal velocities from averaged relative sea level trends: A proof of concept

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bâki Iz H.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This study demonstrates that relative sea level trends calculated from long-term tide gauge records can be used to estimate relative vertical crustal velocities in a region with high accuracy. A comparison of the weighted averages of the relative sea level trends estimated at six tide gauge stations in two clusters along the Eastern coast of United States, in Florida and in Maryland, reveals a statistically significant regional vertical crustal motion of Maryland with respect to Florida with a subsidence rate of −1.15±0.15 mm/yr identified predominantly due to the ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment process. The estimate is a consilience value to validate vertical crustal velocities calculated from GPS time series as well as towards constraining predictive GIA models in these regions.

  18. Bathymetric and geographic population structure in the pan-Atlantic deep-sea bivalve Deminucula atacellana (Schenck, 1939).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zardus, John D; Etter, Ron J; Chase, Michael R; Rex, Michael A; Boyle, Elizabeth E

    2006-03-01

    The deep-sea soft-sediment environment hosts a diverse and highly endemic fauna of uncertain origin. We know little about how this fauna evolved because geographic patterns of genetic variation, the essential information for inferring patterns of population differentiation and speciation are poorly understood. Using formalin-fixed specimens from archival collections, we quantify patterns of genetic variation in the protobranch bivalve Deminucula atacellana, a species widespread throughout the Atlantic Ocean at bathyal and abyssal depths. Samples were taken from 18 localities in the North American, West European and Argentine basins. A hypervariable region of mitochondrial 16S rDNA was amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequenced from 130 individuals revealing 21 haplotypes. Except for several important exceptions, haplotypes are unique to each basin. Overall gene diversity is high (h = 0.73) with pronounced population structure (Phi(ST) = 0.877) and highly significant geographic associations (P < 0.0001). Sequences cluster into four major clades corresponding to differences in geography and depth. Genetic divergence was much greater among populations at different depths within the same basin, than among those at similar depths but separated by thousands of kilometres. Isolation by distance probably explains much of the interbasin variation. Depth-related divergence may reflect historical patterns of colonization or strong environmental selective gradients. Broadly distributed deep-sea organisms can possess highly genetically divergent populations, despite the lack of any morphological divergence.

  19. Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

    2017-09-01

    Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

  20. Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

    2018-06-01

    Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

  1. Can guild- or site-specific contrasts in trends or phenology explain the changed role of the Dutch Wadden Sea for fish?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulp, Ingrid; van der Veer, Henk W.; Walker, Paddy; van Walraven, Lodewijk; Bolle, Loes J.

    2017-09-01

    The Wadden Sea bordering the Dutch, German and Danish coast, is traditionally a region with important functions for many fish species: as a nursery area for juveniles (marine juveniles), as a feeding area, as a transit to and from fresh water, and resident species complete their whole life cycle there. Because of indications that the importance of the Dutch Wadden Sea has changed drastically for many species during the past decades, we analysed and classified trends of 24 common fish species in the last 45 years, which were assigned to 5 different ecological guilds. Trends were examined for three Wadden Sea regions and compared to trends in the adjacent two North Sea coastal regions. For these analyses we made a combined use of two longterm time series: an annual beamtrawl survey, the Demeral Fish Survey (DFS) with a high spatial but poor seasonal resolution and a fyke series with a high seasonal but poor spatial resolution. We investigated for which species the DFS survey was appropriate for trend analysis, and we evaluated whether a change in timing may contribute to patterns in DFS time trends. Total fish biomass showed a similar pattern in all tidal basins with an increase from 1970 to 1980, a peak in the mid-1980s and a strong decline from 1980 to 2000, with a subsequent stable trend. The pattern in the coastal region deviated especially in the past 10 years, with a further decline along the Dutch Wadden coast and an increase along the mainland coast. Most dramatic declines throughout the Wadden Sea occurred in species belonging to the marine juvenile guild, notably plaice, sole and dab. A declining trend in marine juveniles is on-going in the western part, while it recently stabilised or even increased in the central and eastern part and in the coastal regions. Resident species showed more variable trends in the Wadden Sea with less pronounced directions: both increases and decreases occurred. In the coastal regions, several resident species have increased

  2. Geographical Gradients in Argentinean Terrestrial Mammal Species Richness and Their Environmental Correlates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Márquez, Ana L.; Real, Raimundo; Kin, Marta S.; Guerrero, José Carlos; Galván, Betina; Barbosa, A. Márcia; Olivero, Jesús; Palomo, L. Javier; Vargas, J. Mario; Justo, Enrique

    2012-01-01

    We analysed the main geographical trends of terrestrial mammal species richness (SR) in Argentina, assessing how broad-scale environmental variation (defined by climatic and topographic variables) and the spatial form of the country (defined by spatial filters based on spatial eigenvector mapping (SEVM)) influence the kinds and the numbers of mammal species along these geographical trends. We also evaluated if there are pure geographical trends not accounted for by the environmental or spatial factors. The environmental variables and spatial filters that simultaneously correlated with the geographical variables and SR were considered potential causes of the geographic trends. We performed partial correlations between SR and the geographical variables, maintaining the selected explanatory variables statistically constant, to determine if SR was fully explained by them or if a significant residual geographic pattern remained. All groups and subgroups presented a latitudinal gradient not attributable to the spatial form of the country. Most of these trends were not explained by climate. We used a variation partitioning procedure to quantify the pure geographic trend (PGT) that remained unaccounted for. The PGT was larger for latitudinal than for longitudinal gradients. This suggests that historical or purely geographical causes may also be relevant drivers of these geographical gradients in mammal diversity. PMID:23028254

  3. Geographical Gradients in Argentinean Terrestrial Mammal Species Richness and Their Environmental Correlates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana L. Márquez

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We analysed the main geographical trends of terrestrial mammal species richness (SR in Argentina, assessing how broad-scale environmental variation (defined by climatic and topographic variables and the spatial form of the country (defined by spatial filters based on spatial eigenvector mapping (SEVM influence the kinds and the numbers of mammal species along these geographical trends. We also evaluated if there are pure geographical trends not accounted for by the environmental or spatial factors. The environmental variables and spatial filters that simultaneously correlated with the geographical variables and SR were considered potential causes of the geographic trends. We performed partial correlations between SR and the geographical variables, maintaining the selected explanatory variables statistically constant, to determine if SR was fully explained by them or if a significant residual geographic pattern remained. All groups and subgroups presented a latitudinal gradient not attributable to the spatial form of the country. Most of these trends were not explained by climate. We used a variation partitioning procedure to quantify the pure geographic trend (PGT that remained unaccounted for. The PGT was larger for latitudinal than for longitudinal gradients. This suggests that historical or purely geographical causes may also be relevant drivers of these geographical gradients in mammal diversity.

  4. Productivity and sea surface temperature are correlated with the pelagic larval duration of damselfishes in the Red Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robitzch, Vanessa S N; Lozano-Cortés, Diego; Kandler, Nora M; Salas, Eva; Berumen, Michael L

    2016-04-30

    We examined the variation of pelagic larval durations (PLDs) among three damselfishes, Dascyllus aruanus, D. marginatus, and D. trimaculatus, which live under the influence of an environmental gradient in the Red Sea. PLDs were significantly correlated with latitude, sea surface temperature (SST), and primary production (CHLA; chlorophyll a concentrations). We find a consistent decrease in PLDs with increasing SST and primary production (CHLA) towards the southern Red Sea among all species. This trend is likely related to higher food availability and increased metabolic rates in that region. We suggest that food availability is a potentially stronger driver of variation in PLD than temperature, especially in highly oligotrophic regions. Additionally, variations in PLDs were particularly high among specimens of D. marginatus, suggesting a stronger response to local environmental differences for endemic species. We also report the first average PLD for this species over a broad geographic range (19.82 ± 2.92 days). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Productivity and sea surface temperature are correlated with the pelagic larval duration of damselfishes in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Robitzch, Vanessa S.N.

    2015-12-01

    We examined the variation of pelagic larval durations (PLDs) among three damselfishes, Dascyllus aruanus, D. marginatus, and D. trimaculatus, which live under the influence of an environmental gradient in the Red Sea. PLDs were significantly correlated with latitude, sea surface temperature (SST), and primary production (CHLA; chlorophyll a concentrations). We find a consistent decrease in PLDs with increasing SST and primary production (CHLA) towards the southern Red Sea among all species. This trend is likely related to higher food availability and increased metabolic rates in that region. We suggest that food availability is a potentially stronger driver of variation in PLD than temperature, especially in highly oligotrophic regions. Additionally, variations in PLDs were particularly high among specimens of D. marginatus, suggesting a stronger response to local environmental differences for endemic species. We also report the first average PLD for this species over a broad geographic range (19.82 ± 2.92 days).

  6. Productivity and sea surface temperature are correlated with the pelagic larval duration of damselfishes in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Robitzch, Vanessa S.N.; Lozano-Corté s, Diego; Kandler, Nora; Salas, Eva; Berumen, Michael L.

    2015-01-01

    We examined the variation of pelagic larval durations (PLDs) among three damselfishes, Dascyllus aruanus, D. marginatus, and D. trimaculatus, which live under the influence of an environmental gradient in the Red Sea. PLDs were significantly correlated with latitude, sea surface temperature (SST), and primary production (CHLA; chlorophyll a concentrations). We find a consistent decrease in PLDs with increasing SST and primary production (CHLA) towards the southern Red Sea among all species. This trend is likely related to higher food availability and increased metabolic rates in that region. We suggest that food availability is a potentially stronger driver of variation in PLD than temperature, especially in highly oligotrophic regions. Additionally, variations in PLDs were particularly high among specimens of D. marginatus, suggesting a stronger response to local environmental differences for endemic species. We also report the first average PLD for this species over a broad geographic range (19.82 ± 2.92 days).

  7. On the Wind Energy Resource and Its Trend in the East China Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adekunle Ayodotun Osinowo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study utilizes a 30-year (1980–2009 10 m wind field dataset obtained from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast to investigate the wind energy potential in the East China Sea (ECS by using Weibull shape and scale parameters. The region generally showed good wind characteristics. The calculated annual mean of the wind power resource revealed the potential of the region for large-scale grid-connected wind turbine applications. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal variations showed strong trends in wind power in regions surrounding Taiwan Island. These regions were evaluated with high wind potential and were rated as excellent locations for installation of large wind turbines for electrical energy generation. Nonsignificant and negative trends dominated the ECS and the rest of the regions; therefore, these locations were found to be suitable for small wind applications. The wind power density exhibited an insignificant trend in the ECS throughout the study period. The trend was strongest during spring and weakest during autumn.

  8. Past and recent trends in the western Black Sea storminess

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. N. Valchev

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Storms are one of the most important phenomena producing coastal hazards and endangering human life and activities. In recent decades storm climate has become a subject of increased public awareness and knowledge of this issue can help the society to meet future challenges related to extreme storm manifestation. Therefore, the goal of this study is to assess trends in past and recent storminess in the western Black Sea. The analysis of storm climate is based on a continuous hindcast dataset covering a substantial historical time-span of 63 yr (1948–2010. It was used to create a storm population and to estimate properties describing storminess (proxies. This was done by introduction of criteria allowing separation of events with low probability of occurrence and at the same time keeping the information on their pattern, i.e. properties of storm phases. Eleven storminess proxies were analysed and the most indicative appeared to be storm duration; integral, mean and specific storm wave energy; and wind velocity and direction, which were obtained for each storm season.

    While experiencing significant variability on a quasi-decadal scale, no significant upward or downward trends in storminess were detected. For almost all proxies, an increasing trend until the 1980s or the 1990s and a return to average or even calm conditions in the late 2000s are traceable. On this background, a steady although not significant increase of wind velocity was detected. Results also indicate an alteration of storm pattern, manifested as shortening of storm duration due to a shift of the prevailing direction of storm forcing winds to the north. Nevertheless, incident wave energy in the storms' most intense phase remains significant. The obtained results are discussed with regard to the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the hydrometeorological pattern of the Black Sea region as a part of the European-Atlantic area, in particular with respect to the

  9. Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

  10. A 21-Year Record of Arctic Sea Ice Extents and Their Regional, Seasonal, and Monthly Variability and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Satellite passive-microwave data have been used to calculate sea ice extents over the period 1979-1999 for the north polar sea ice cover as a whole and for each of nine regions. Over this 21-year time period, the trend in yearly average ice extents for the ice cover as a whole is -32,900 +/- 6,100 sq km/yr (-2.7 +/- 0.5 %/decade), indicating a reduction in sea ice coverage that has decelerated from the earlier reported value of -34,000 +/- 8,300 sq km/yr (-2.8 +/- 0.7 %/decade) for the period 1979-1996. Regionally, the reductions are greatest in the Arctic Ocean, the Kara and Barents Seas, and the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan, whereas seasonally, the reductions are greatest in summer, for which season the 1979-1999 trend in ice extents is -41,600 +/- 12,900 sq km/ yr (-4.9 +/- 1.5 %/decade). On a monthly basis, the reductions are greatest in July and September for the north polar ice cover as a whole, in September for the Arctic Ocean, in June and July for the Kara and Barents Seas, and in April for the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan. Only two of the nine regions show overall ice extent increases, those being the Bering Sea and the Gulf of St. Lawrence.For neither of these two regions is the increase statistically significant, whereas the 1079 - 1999 ice extent decreases are statistically significant at the 99% confidence level for the north polar region as a whole, the Arctic Ocean, the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan, and Hudson Bay.

  11. Employment-based retirement plan participation: geographic differences and trends, 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, Craig

    2011-10-01

    LATEST DATA: This Issue Brief examines the level of participation by workers in public- and private-sector employment-based pension or retirement plans, based on the U.S. Census Bureau's March 2011 Current Population Survey (CPS), the most recent data currently available (for year-end 2010). SPONSORSHIP RATE: Among all working-age (21-64) wage and salary employees, 54.2 percent worked for an employer or union that sponsored a retirement plan in 2010. Among full-time, full-year wage and salary workers ages 21-64 (those with the strongest connection to the work force), 61.6 percent worked for an employer or union that sponsors a plan. PARTICIPATION LEVEL: Among full-time, full-year wage and salary workers ages 21-64, 54.5 percent participated in a retirement plan. TREND: This is virtually unchanged from 54.4 percent in 2009. Participation trends increased significantly in the late 1990s, and decreased in 2001 and 2002. In 2003 and 2004, the participation trend flattened out. The retirement plan participation level subsequently declined in 2005 and 2006, before a significant increase in 2007. Slight declines occurred in 2008 and 2009, followed by a flattening out of the trend in 2010. AGE: Participation increased with age (61.4 percent for wage and salary workers ages 55-64, compared with 29.2 percent for those ages 21-24). GENDER: Among wage and salary workers ages 21-64, men had a higher participation level than women, but among full-time, full-year workers, women had a higher percentage participating than men (55.5 percent for women, compared with 53.8 percent for men). Female workers' lower probability of participation among wage and salary workers results from their overall lower earnings and lower rates of full-time work in comparison with males. RACE: Hispanic wage and salary workers were significantly less likely than both white and black workers to participate in a retirement plan. The gap between the percentages of black and white plan participants that

  12. Prostate cancer incidence and tumor severity in Georgia: descriptive epidemiology, racial disparity, and geographic trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Sara E; Bauer, Sarah E; Bayakly, A Rana; Vena, John E

    2013-01-01

    Limited research has been conducted to describe the geographical clustering and distribution of prostate cancer (PrCA) incidence in Georgia (GA). This study describes and compares the temporal and geographic trends of PrCA incidence in GA with a specific focus on racial disparities. GA Comprehensive Cancer Registry PrCA incidence data were obtained for 1998-2008. Directly standardized age-adjusted PrCA incidence rates per 100,000 were analyzed by race, stage, grade, and county. County-level hotspots of PrCA incidence were analyzed with the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic in a geographic information system; a census tract-level cluster analysis was performed with a Discrete Poisson model and implemented in SaTScan(®) software. Significant (p incidence were observed in nine southwestern counties and six centrally located counties among men of both races. Six significant (p incidence rates were detected for men of both races in north and northwest central Georgia. When stratified by race, clusters among white and black men were similar, although centroids were slightly shifted. Most notably, a large (122 km radius) cluster in northwest central Georgia was detected only in whites, and two smaller clusters (0-32 km radii) were detected in Southwest Georgia only in black men. Clusters of high-grade and late-stage tumors were identified primarily in the northern portion of the state among men of both races. This study revealed a pattern of higher incidence and more advanced disease in northern and northwest central Georgia, highlighting geographic patterns that need more research and investigation of possible environmental determinants.

  13. The Role of the Mean State of Arctic Sea Ice on Near-Surface Temperature Trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linden, van der E.C.; Bintanja, R.; Hazeleger, W.; Katsman, C.A.

    2014-01-01

    Century-scale global near-surface temperature trends in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in climate models vary by almost a factor of 2, with greatest intermodel spread in the Arctic region where sea ice is a key climate component. Three factors contribute to the intermodel spread:

  14. Long-term spatiotemporal trends and health risk assessment of oyster arsenic levels in coastal waters of northern South China Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xuefeng; Wang, Lifei; Jia, Xiaoping; Jackson, Donald A

    2017-09-01

    Long-term spatiotemporal trends and health risk assessment of oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea were investigated in order to help improve the quality and safety control and sustainable aquaculture for mollusks in China. Cultured oysters (Crassostrea rivularis) collected from the waters of 23 bays, harbors, and estuaries along the coast of northern South China Sea from 1989 to 2012 were examined for spatial patterns and long-term temporal trends of oyster arsenic levels. Single-factor index and health risk assessment were used to quantify arsenic exposure to human health through oyster consumption. Overall, arsenic was detected in 97.4% of the oyster samples, and oyster arsenic levels were non-detectable-2.51 mg/kg with an average of 0.63 ± 0.54 mg/kg. Oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea showed an overall decline from 1989 to 2012, remained relatively low since 2005, and slightly increased after 2007. Oyster arsenic levels in Guangdong coastal waters were much higher with more variation than in Guangxi and Hainan coastal waters, and the long-term trends of oyster arsenic levels in Guangdong coastal waters dominated the overall trends of oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea. Within Guangdong Province, oyster arsenic levels were highest in east Guangdong coastal waters, followed by the Pearl River estuary and west Guangdong coastal waters. Single-factor index ranged between 0.27 and 0.97, and average health risk coefficient was 3.85 × 10 -5 , both suggesting that oyster arsenic levels in northern South China Sea are within the safe range for human consumption. However, long-term attention should be given to seafood market monitoring in China and the risk of arsenic exposure to human health through oyster consumption.

  15. Long-term citizen-collected data reveal geographical patterns and temporal trends in lake water clarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Henry, Emily N.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.

    2014-01-01

    We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity.

  16. Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Warming water and melting land ice have raised global mean sea level 4.5 centimeters (1.7 inches) from 1993 to 2008. But the rise is by no means uniform. This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed during this time and how quickly these changes have occurred. It's also a road map showing where the ocean currently stores the growing amount of heat it is absorbing from Earth's atmosphere and the heat it receives directly from the Sun. The warmer the water, the higher the sea surface rises. The location of heat in the ocean and its movement around the globe play a pivotal role in Earth's climate. Light blue indicates areas in which sea level has remained relatively constant since 1993. White, red, and yellow are regions where sea levels have risen the most rapidly up to 10 millimeters per year and which contain the most heat. Green areas have also risen, but more moderately. Purple and dark blue show where sea levels have dropped, due to cooler water. The dramatic variation in sea surface heights and heat content across the ocean are due to winds, currents and long-term changes in patterns of circulation. From 1993 to 2008, the largest area of rapidly rising sea levels and the greatest concentration of heat has been in the Pacific, which now shows the characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a feature that can last 10 to 20 years or even longer. In this 'cool' phase, the PDO appears as a horseshoe-shaped pattern of warm water in the Western Pacific reaching from the far north to the Southern Ocean enclosing a large wedge of cool water with low sea surface heights in the eastern Pacific. This ocean/climate phenomenon may be caused by wind-driven Rossby waves. Thousands of kilometers long, these waves move from east to west on either side of the equator changing the distribution of water mass and heat. This image of sea level trend also reveals a significant

  17. National Trends and Geographic Variation in Availability of Home Health Care: 2002-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yun; Leifheit-Limson, Erica C; Fine, Jonathan; Pandolfi, Michelle M; Gao, Yan; Liu, Fanglin; Eckenrode, Sheila; Lichtman, Judith H

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate national trends and geographic variation in the availability of home health care from 2002 to 2015 and identify county-specific characteristics associated with home health care. Observational study. All counties in the United States. All Medicare-certified home health agencies included in the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Home Health Compare system. County-specific availability of home health care, defined as the number of available home health agencies that provided services to a given county per 100,000 population aged ≥18 years. The study included 15,184 Medicare-certified home health agencies that served 97% of U.S. ZIP codes. Between 2002-2003 and 2014-2015, the county-specific number of available home health agencies per 100,000 population aged ≥18 years increased from 14.7 to 21.8 and the median (inter-quartile range) population that was serviced by at least one home health agency increased from 403,605 (890,329) to 455,488 (1,039,328). Considerable geographic variation in the availability of home health care was observed. The West, North East, and South Atlantic regions had lower home health care availability than the Central regions, and this pattern persisted over the study period. Counties with higher median income, a larger senior population, higher rates of households without a car and low access to stores, more obesity, greater inactivity, and higher proportions of non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic populations were more likely to have higher availability of home health care. The availability of home health care increased nationwide during the study period, but there was much geographic variation. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  18. North Sea oil and gas: a geographical perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chapman, K

    1976-01-01

    Only ten years after the first rig moved into position, British oil has been piped ashore from the North Sea and, by 1980, will be making a substantial contribution to UK energy supplies. The discovery of natural gas in 1967--for initially gas was the primary objective--has transformed the gas supply so that 90% of the UK's needs already come from the North Sea. The speed and concentration of exploration pinpoints the vital importance of this new energy source. Until now the major oil 'pipeline' in the world has been led between the Middle East and Western Europe, so this new energy source has far reaching implications, both political and economic. Keith Chapman examines these implications starting from events in the North Sea itself; the geological background, agreement on the division of the North Sea, relations between oil companies, and government embodied in offshore mining legislation. The latter part of the book concentrates on the onshore repercussions of offshore activities; how North Sea oil fits into the international oil system, the various options open for its utilisation, the attitude of the EEC towards Scottish-based resources, government policy for the North coast of Scotland--an area which planners classed as ''peripheral'' but which must now accommodate extensive support facilities and service industries for the oil sites. There is also the question of relations between national and commercial interests--government versus the giant multi-national companies which took the initial gamble in the North Sea and are now responsible for the development of a resource vital to the economic well-being of Western Europe.

  19. Antarctic sea ice increase consistent with intrinsic variability of the Amundsen Sea Low

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, John; Hosking, J. Scott; Marshall, Gareth J.; Phillips, Tony; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the relationship between atmospheric circulation variability and the recent trends in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) atmospheric data, ECMWF Interim reanalysis fields and passive microwave satellite data processed with the Bootstrap version 2 algorithm. Over 1979-2013 the annual mean total Antarctic SIE increased at a rate of 195 × 103 km2 dec-1 (1.6 % dec-1), p 4.0 % dec-1) has been in the Ross Sea sector. Off West Antarctica there is a high correlation between trends in SIE and trends in the near-surface winds. The Ross Sea SIE seasonal trends are positive throughout the year, but largest in spring. The stronger meridional flow over the Ross Sea has been driven by a deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL). Pre-industrial control and historical simulations from CMIP5 indicate that the observed deepening of the ASL and stronger southerly flow over the Ross Sea are within the bounds of modeled intrinsic variability. The spring trend would need to continue for another 11 years for it to fall outside the 2 standard deviation range seen in 90 % of the simulations.

  20. HIV pretreatment drug resistance trends in three geographic areas of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Morales, Claudia; Tapia-Trejo, Daniela; Quiroz-Morales, Verónica S; Navarro-Álvarez, Samuel; Barrera-Arellano, Carlos A; Casillas-Rodríguez, Jesús; Romero-Mora, Karla A; Gómez-Palacio-Schjetnan, María; Murakami-Ogasawara, Akio; Ávila-Ríos, Santiago; Reyes-Terán, Gustavo

    2017-11-01

    Pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) levels to NNRTI approaching 10% have recently been reported in Mexico. However, subnational differences may exist in PDR prevalence and transmission dynamics. We longitudinally assessed HIV PDR in three geographic areas of Mexico. HIV-infected, antiretroviral-naive individuals were recruited from 2008 to 2016, from the Central Metropolitan Zone (CMZ), Cancun and Tijuana (1194, 773 and 668 respectively). PDR was estimated using the Stanford HIVdb tool from plasma HIV pol sequences. A higher proportion of females, lower education and lower employment rate were observed in Tijuana, while a higher proportion of MSM was observed in the CMZ (P Mexico. Even when increasing trends in efavirenz resistance were observed in the three areas, our observations support that, in a large country such as Mexico, subnational surveillance and locally tailored interventions to address drug resistance may be a reasonable option. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. 99Tc in the Irish Sea. Recent trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCartney, M.; Rajendran, K.

    1997-01-01

    The increase in discharges of 99 Tc from Sellafield has resulted in an ideal opportunity to study the behaviour of this radionuclide in the aquatic environment. Results, thus far, have demonstrated that 99 Tc uptake by seaweeds collected from around the Irish Sea has followed the anticipated trend, with brown seaweeds accumulating 100-1000 times more 99 Tc than red or green algae. The large increase in discharges of 99 Tc from Sellafield in 1994 had been matched by a similar increase in the levels present in brown seaweeds, mussels and winkles for which concentration factors of 24000, 5000 and 100, respectively, have been derived. This confirms the observation that 99 Tc uptake by marine organisms in the field far exceeds that which would be expected from laboratory studies. Thus, it is concluded that, given the radiological importance of this nuclide, the provision of more accurate information on its environmental behaviour is required. (author)

  2. ACCELERATION OF SEA LEVEL RISE OVER MALAYSIAN SEAS FROM SATELLITE ALTIMETER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. A. Hamid

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS. Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

  3. Acceleration of Sea Level Rise Over Malaysian Seas from Satellite Altimeter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, A. I. A.; Din, A. H. M.; Khalid, N. F.; Omar, K. M.

    2016-09-01

    Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS). Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA) are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

  4. Geographical distribution and risk assessment of persistent organic pollutants in golden threads (Nemipterus virgatus) from the northern South China Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Qing; Sun, Yu-Xin; Xu, Xiang-Rong; Yao, Zi-Wei; Wang, You-Shao; Zhang, Zai-Wang; Luo, Xiao-Jun; Mai, Bi-Xian

    2015-10-01

    Fish are often used as good bioindicators to monitor the occurrence of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) on different scales in recent years. Forty-five golden threads (Nemipterus virgatus) were collected from six sampling sites in the northern South China Sea (SCS) to investigate the geographical distribution of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and its metabolites (DDTs). Concentrations of PBDEs, PCBs, and DDTs ranged from 1.3-36.0, 2.3-76.5, 8.3-228 ng/g lipid weight, respectively. The highest PBDEs and DDTs concentrations were found in golden threads from Shantou, owing to the intensive electronic waste recycling activities and rapid development of agriculture. Samples from Haikou had the highest levels of PCBs, probably due to the existence of many shipbuilding yards in the past years. The concentrations of PBDEs and PCBs were found in a decreasing trend from east to west and from north to south, while DDTs concentrations had no obvious trend in the distribution. PCBs were the most prevalent contaminants in Xiamen and Yangjiang, while DDTs were the dominant compounds at the other four sampling sites. Different profiles of POPs at each sampling site may attribute to different pollution sources in the northern SCS. Ratios of (DDD + DDE)/DDTs in golden threads suggested the probability of fresh input of DDT in the northern SCS. The estimated daily intakes of PBDEs, PCBs and DDTs were 0.030-0.069, 0.167-0.258 and 0.105-1.88 ng/kg/day, respectively, which were significantly lower than the acceptable daily intake, suggesting that consumption of golden threads from the northern SCS would not subject the residents in the coastal areas of SCS to significant health risk.

  5. Phytoplankton Biomass Dynamics in the Strait of Malacca within the Period of the SeaWiFS Full Mission: Seasonal Cycles, Interannual Variations and Decadal-Scale Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eko Siswanto

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal cycles, interannual variations and decadal trends of Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS-retrieved chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a in the Strait of Malacca (SM were investigated with reconstructed, cloud-free SeaWiFS Chl-a during the period of the SeaWiFS full mission (September 1997 to December 2010. Pixel-based non-parametric correlations of SeaWiFS Chl-a on environmental variables were used to identify the probable causes of the observed spatio-temporal variations of SeaWiFS Chl-a in northern, middle and southern regions of the SM. Chl-a was high (low during the northeast (southwest monsoon. The principal causes of the seasonality were wind-driven vertical mixing in the northern region and wind-driven coastal upwelling and possibly river discharges in the middle region. Among the three regions, the southern region showed the largest interannual variations of Chl-a. These variations were associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO and river runoff. Interannual variations of Chl-a in the middle and northern regions were more responsive to the Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO, respectively, with atmospheric deposition being the most important driver. The most significant decadal-scale trend of increasing Chl-a was in the southern region; the trend was moderate in the middle region. This increasing trend was probably caused by environmental changes unrelated to the variables investigated in this study.

  6. Contemporary Arctic Sea Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazenave, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    During recent decades, the Arctic region has warmed at a rate about twice the rest of the globe. Sea ice melting is increasing and the Greenland ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerated rate. Arctic warming, decrease in the sea ice cover and fresh water input to the Arctic ocean may eventually impact the Arctic sea level. In this presentation, we review our current knowledge of contemporary Arctic sea level changes. Until the beginning of the 1990s, Arctic sea level variations were essentially deduced from tide gauges located along the Russian and Norwegian coastlines. Since then, high inclination satellite altimetry missions have allowed measuring sea level over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean (up to 80 degree north). Measuring sea level in the Arctic by satellite altimetry is challenging because the presence of sea ice cover limits the full capacity of this technique. However adapted processing of raw altimetric measurements significantly increases the number of valid data, hence the data coverage, from which regional sea level variations can be extracted. Over the altimetry era, positive trend patterns are observed over the Beaufort Gyre and along the east coast of Greenland, while negative trends are reported along the Siberian shelf. On average over the Arctic region covered by satellite altimetry, the rate of sea level rise since 1992 is slightly less than the global mea sea level rate (of about 3 mm per year). On the other hand, the interannual variability is quite significant. Space gravimetry data from the GRACE mission and ocean reanalyses provide information on the mass and steric contributions to sea level, hence on the sea level budget. Budget studies show that regional sea level trends over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are essentially due to salinity changes. However, in terms of regional average, the net steric component contributes little to the observed sea level trend. The sea level budget in the Arctic

  7. Geographical PCB and DDT patterns in shearwaters (Calonectris sp.) breeding across the NE Atlantic and the Mediterranean archipelagos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roscales, Jose L; Muñoz-Arnanz, Juan; González-Solís, Jacob; Jiménez, Begoña

    2010-04-01

    Although seabirds have been proposed as useful biomonitors for organochlorine contaminants (OCs) in marine environments, their suitability is still unclear. To understand the geographic variability and the influence of seabird trophic ecology in OC levels, we analyzed PCBs, DDTs, delta(13)C, and delta(15)N in the blood of adult Calonectris shearwaters throughout a vast geographic range within the northeast Atlantic Ocean (from Cape Verde to Azores) and the Mediterranean Sea (from the Alboran Sea to Crete). OC concentrations were greater in birds from the Mediterranean than in those from the Atlantic colonies, showing higher and lower chlorinated PCB profiles, respectively. This large-scale pattern may reflect the influence of historical European runoffs in the Mediterranean basin and diffused sources for OCs in remote Atlantic islands. Spatial patterns also emerged within the Atlantic basin, probably associated with pollutant long-range transport and recent inputs of DDT in the food webs of shearwaters from Cape Verde and the Canary islands. Moreover, a positive association of OC concentrations with delta(15)N within each locality points out diet specialization as a major factor explaining differences in OCs at the intraspecific level. Overall, this study highlights wide range breeding seabirds, such as Calonectris shearwaters, as suitable organisms for biomonitoring large geographic trends of organochlorine contamination in the marine environment.

  8. Sea level rise and variability around Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tay, Tze-Wei

    2014-05-01

    Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea, both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. As a result, sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); whilst long term sea level trend is coordinated by the global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability surrounding the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 0.8 mm/yr and 2.7 ± 0.6 mm/yr, respectively. Discounting for their vertical land movements (0.8 ± 2.6 mm/yr and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm/yr, respectively), their pure SLR rates are 1.6 ± 3.4 mm/yr and 1.8 ± 2.8 mm/yr, respectively, which are lower than the global tendency. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian east coast in the range of ± 5 cm with very high correlation coefficient. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies in the Malacca Strait in the range of ± 2 cm with high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index. Seasonally, SLAs are mainly monsoon-driven, in the order of 10-25 cm. Geographically, sea level responds differently to the monsoon: two cycles per year are observed in the Malacca Strait, presumably due to South Asian - Indian Monsoon; while single

  9. ASSESSMENT OF COASTAL VULNERABILITY TO SEA LEVEL RISE OF BOLINAO, PANGASINAN USING REMOTE SENSING AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. C. Reyes

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available A number of studies assessing the vulnerability of Southeast Asia to climate change have classified the Philippines as one of the vulnerable countries in the region. Bolinao, Pangasinan is a municipality located in northwestern Luzon, situated in the western part of the Lingayen Gulf and is bounded on the north and west by the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea. Recent studies have verified the varying trends in sea level across the South China Sea, which is considered as one of the largest, semi-enclosed marginal seas in the northwest Pacific Ocean. Three barangays (villages were included in the study: (1 Luciente 1.0, (2 Concordia and (3 Germinal. The Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index (SVI was computed based on population, age, gender, employment, source of income and household size, which were gathered through a qualitative survey in the selected barangays. The Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI described the physical vulnerability of these coastal communities based on recorded sea level anomalies and significant wave heights of multiple satellite altimetry missions, coastal topography derived from the 25-m SRTM digital elevation model (DEM, bathymetry from WorldView-2 and additional elevation data from terrestrial laser scanning surveys. The research utilized merged satellite altimetry data downloaded from the Radar Altimetry Database System (RADS, which covered the period from 1991–2010. The SVI and CVI were calculated and evaluated in ArcGIS. The SVI and CVI were integrated to determine the Total Vulnerability Index (TVI, which characterized the vulnerability of the three barangays in five classes, from very low to very high vulnerability.

  10. Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise of Bolinao, Pangasinan Using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, S. R. C.; Blanco, A. C.

    2012-07-01

    A number of studies assessing the vulnerability of Southeast Asia to climate change have classified the Philippines as one of the vulnerable countries in the region. Bolinao, Pangasinan is a municipality located in northwestern Luzon, situated in the western part of the Lingayen Gulf and is bounded on the north and west by the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Recent studies have verified the varying trends in sea level across the South China Sea, which is considered as one of the largest, semi-enclosed marginal seas in the northwest Pacific Ocean. Three barangays (villages) were included in the study: (1) Luciente 1.0, (2) Concordia and (3) Germinal. The Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index (SVI) was computed based on population, age, gender, employment, source of income and household size, which were gathered through a qualitative survey in the selected barangays. The Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) described the physical vulnerability of these coastal communities based on recorded sea level anomalies and significant wave heights of multiple satellite altimetry missions, coastal topography derived from the 25-m SRTM digital elevation model (DEM), bathymetry from WorldView-2 and additional elevation data from terrestrial laser scanning surveys. The research utilized merged satellite altimetry data downloaded from the Radar Altimetry Database System (RADS), which covered the period from 1991-2010. The SVI and CVI were calculated and evaluated in ArcGIS. The SVI and CVI were integrated to determine the Total Vulnerability Index (TVI), which characterized the vulnerability of the three barangays in five classes, from very low to very high vulnerability.

  11. The wind sea and swell waves climate in the Nordic seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semedo, Alvaro; Vettor, Roberto; Breivik, Øyvind; Sterl, Andreas; Reistad, Magnar; Soares, Carlos Guedes; Lima, Daniela

    2015-02-01

    A detailed climatology of wind sea and swell waves in the Nordic Seas (North Sea, Norwegian Sea, and Barents Sea), based on the high-resolution reanalysis NORA10, developed by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, is presented. The higher resolution of the wind forcing fields, and the wave model (10 km in both cases), along with the inclusion of the bottom effect, allowed a better description of the wind sea and swell features, compared to previous global studies. The spatial patterns of the swell-dominated regional wave fields are shown to be different from the open ocean, due to coastal geometry, fetch dimensions, and island sheltering. Nevertheless, swell waves are still more prevalent and carry more energy in the Nordic Seas, with the exception of the North Sea. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the winter regional wind sea and swell patterns is also presented. The analysis of the decadal trends of wind sea and swell heights during the NORA10 period (1958-2001) shows that the long-term trends of the total significant wave height (SWH) in the Nordic Seas are mostly due to swell and to the wave propagation effect.

  12. Status and trends of the major roundfish, flatfish, and pelagic fish stocks in the North Sea : Thirty-year overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Serchuk, F.M.; Kirkegaard, Eskild; Daan, N.

    1996-01-01

    Changes in the status of the major roundfish, flatfish, and pelagic stocks in the North Sea over the past 30 years are reviewed. Synopses are presented on trends in catches, fishing mortality, spawning-stock biomass, and recruitment for eight stocks (cod, haddock, whiting, saithe, plaice, sole......, herring, and mackerel), together with an evaluation of the current state of these resources and the most resent management advice provided by the ICES Advisory, Committee on Fishery Management. (C) 1996 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea...

  13. Effects of increased pCO2 and geographic origin on purple sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) calcite elemental composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaVigne, M.; Hill, T. M.; Sanford, E.; Gaylord, B.; Russell, A. D.; Lenz, E. A.; Hosfelt, J. D.; Young, M. K.

    2012-12-01

    .09 ± 0.06 mmol mol-1; Mg/Ca = 66.9 ± 4.1 mmol mol-1), juveniles of Southern California origin partitioned ∼ 8% more Sr into their skeletons when exposed to higher CO2 (Sr/Ca = 2.26 ± 0.05 vs. 2.10 ± 0.03 mmol mol-1 1 SD). Together these results suggest that the diversity of carbonate minerologies present across different skeletal structures and life stages in purple sea urchins does not translate into an equivalent plasticity of response associated with geographic variation or temporal shifts in seawater properties. Rather, composition of S. purpuratus skeleton precipitated during both early and adult life history stages appears relatively robust to spatial gradients and predicted changes in seawater carbonate chemistry for 2100. An exception to this trend may arise during early life stages, where certain populations of purple sea urchins may alter skeletal mineral precipitation rates and composition beyond a given CO2 threshold. The degree to which this latter geochemical plasticity might affect mineral stability and solubility in a future, altered ocean requires additional study.

  14. Trends in the breeding population of Adelie penguins in the Ross Sea, 1981-2012: a coincidence of climate and resource extraction effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phil O'B Lyver

    Full Text Available Measurements of the size of Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae colonies of the southern Ross Sea are among the longest biologic time series in the Antarctic. We present an assessment of recent annual variation and trends in abundance and growth rates of these colonies, adding to the published record not updated for more than two decades. High angle oblique aerial photographic surveys of colonies were acquired and penguins counted for the breeding seasons 1981-2012. In the last four years the numbers of Adélie penguins in the Ross and Beaufort Island colonies (southern Ross Sea metapopulation reached their highest levels since aerial counts began in 1981. Results indicated that 855,625 pairs of Adélie penguins established breeding territories in the western Ross Sea, with just over a quarter (28% of those in the southern portion, constituting a semi-isolated metapopulation (three colonies on Ross Island, one on nearby Beaufort Island. The southern population had a negative per capita growth rate of -0.019 during 1981-2000, followed by a positive per capita growth rate of 0.067 for 2001-2012. Colony growth rates for this metapopulation showed striking synchrony through time, indicating that large-scale factors influenced their annual growth. In contrast to the increased colony sizes in the southern population, the patterns of change among colonies of the northern Ross Sea were difficult to characterize. Trends were similar to southern colonies until the mid-1990s, after which the signal was lost owing to significantly reduced frequency of surveys. Both climate factors and recovery of whale populations likely played roles in the trends among southern colonies until 2000, after which depletion of another trophic competitor, the Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni, may explain the sharp increasing trend evident since then.

  15. Sea salt

    OpenAIRE

    Galvis-Sánchez, Andrea C.; Lopes, João Almeida; Delgadillo, Ivone; Rangel, António O. S. S.

    2013-01-01

    The geographical indication (GI) status links a product with the territory and with the biodiversity involved. Besides, the specific knowledge and cultural practices of a human group that permit transforming a resource into a useful good is protected under a GI designation. Traditional sea salt is a hand-harvested product originating exclusively from salt marshes from specific geographical regions. Once salt is harvested, no washing, artificial drying or addition of anti-caking agents are all...

  16. Remote coral reefs can sustain high growth potential and may match future sea-level trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Chris T; Murphy, Gary N; Graham, Nicholas A J; Wilson, Shaun K; Januchowski-Hartley, Fraser A; East, Holly K

    2015-12-16

    Climate-induced disturbances are contributing to rapid, global-scale changes in coral reef ecology. As a consequence, reef carbonate budgets are declining, threatening reef growth potential and thus capacity to track rising sea-levels. Whether disturbed reefs can recover their growth potential and how rapidly, are thus critical research questions. Here we address these questions by measuring the carbonate budgets of 28 reefs across the Chagos Archipelago (Indian Ocean) which, while geographically remote and largely isolated from compounding human impacts, experienced severe (>90%) coral mortality during the 1998 warming event. Coral communities on most reefs recovered rapidly and we show that carbonate budgets in 2015 average +3.7 G (G = kg CaCO3 m(-2) yr(-1)). Most significantly the production rates on Acropora-dominated reefs, the corals most severely impacted in 1998, averaged +8.4 G by 2015, comparable with estimates under pre-human (Holocene) disturbance conditions. These positive budgets are reflected in high reef growth rates (4.2 mm yr(-1)) on Acropora-dominated reefs, demonstrating that carbonate budgets on these remote reefs have recovered rapidly from major climate-driven disturbances. Critically, these reefs retain the capacity to grow at rates exceeding measured regional mid-late Holocene and 20th century sea-level rise, and close to IPCC sea-level rise projections through to 2100.

  17. The New Trends for Librarians in Management of Geographic Information

    OpenAIRE

    Vardakosta, Ifigenia; Kapidakis, Sarantos

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the tools (e.g. CSDGM – FGDC, Gazetteers) used for the subject description and organization, of materials (maps, aerial photos, geospatial data, remote sense images etc) related to the geographic information in today's hybrid library environment. Furthermore we aim to identify changes (e.g. RDA) and determine the new forms (e.g. Linked Data) that have arisen in the management and use of geographic information in order to further enrich access to digital...

  18. Trends in sea otter population abundance in western Prince William Sound, Alaska: Progress toward recovery following the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Esslinger, George G.

    2011-01-01

    Sea otters in western Prince William Sound (WPWS) and elsewhere in the Gulf of Alaska suffered widespread mortality as a result of oiling following the 1989 T/V Exxon Valdez oil spill. Following the spill, extensive efforts have been directed toward identifying and understanding long-term consequences of the spill and the process of recovery. We conducted annual aerial surveys of sea otter abundance from 1993 to 2009 (except for 2001 and 2006) in WPWS. We observed an increasing trend in population abundance at the scale of WPWS through 2000 at an average annual rate of 4 percent: however, at northern Knight Island where oiling was heaviest and sea otter mortality highest, no increase in abundance was evident by 2000. We continued to see significant increase in abundance at the scale of WPWS between 2001 and 2009, with an average annual rate of increase from 1993 to 2009 of 2.6 percent. We estimated the 2009 population size of WPWS to be 3,958 animals (standard error=653), nearly 2,000 animals more than the first post-spill estimate in 1993. Surveys since 2003 also have identified a significant increasing trend at the heavily oiled site in northern Knight Island, averaging about 25 percent annually and resulting in a 2009 estimated population size of 116 animals (standard error=19). Although the 2009 estimate for northern Knight Island remains about 30 percent less than the pre-spill estimate of 165 animals, we interpret this trend as strong evidence of a trajectory toward recovery of spill-affected sea otter populations in WPWS.

  19. Status and trends of the major roundfish, flatfish, and pelagic fish stocks in the North Sea: thirty- year overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Serchuk, F.M.; Kirkegaard, E.; Daan, N.

    1996-01-01

    Changes in the status of the major roundfish, flatfish, and pelagic stocks in the North Sea over the past 30 years are reviewed. Synopses are presented on trends in catches, fishing mortality, spawning-stock biomass, and recruitment for eight stocks (cod, haddock, whitting, saithe, plaice, sole,

  20. Sea-ice indicators of polar bear habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Harry L.; Laidre, Kristin L.

    2016-09-01

    Nineteen subpopulations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are found throughout the circumpolar Arctic, and in all regions they depend on sea ice as a platform for traveling, hunting, and breeding. Therefore polar bear phenology - the cycle of biological events - is linked to the timing of sea-ice retreat in spring and advance in fall. We analyzed the dates of sea-ice retreat and advance in all 19 polar bear subpopulation regions from 1979 to 2014, using daily sea-ice concentration data from satellite passive microwave instruments. We define the dates of sea-ice retreat and advance in a region as the dates when the area of sea ice drops below a certain threshold (retreat) on its way to the summer minimum or rises above the threshold (advance) on its way to the winter maximum. The threshold is chosen to be halfway between the historical (1979-2014) mean September and mean March sea-ice areas. In all 19 regions there is a trend toward earlier sea-ice retreat and later sea-ice advance. Trends generally range from -3 to -9 days decade-1 in spring and from +3 to +9 days decade-1 in fall, with larger trends in the Barents Sea and central Arctic Basin. The trends are not sensitive to the threshold. We also calculated the number of days per year that the sea-ice area exceeded the threshold (termed ice-covered days) and the average sea-ice concentration from 1 June through 31 October. The number of ice-covered days is declining in all regions at the rate of -7 to -19 days decade-1, with larger trends in the Barents Sea and central Arctic Basin. The June-October sea-ice concentration is declining in all regions at rates ranging from -1 to -9 percent decade-1. These sea-ice metrics (or indicators of habitat change) were designed to be useful for management agencies and for comparative purposes among subpopulations. We recommend that the National Climate Assessment include the timing of sea-ice retreat and advance in future reports.

  1. Trends in Arctic Ocean bottom pressure, sea surface height and freshwater content using GRACE and the ice-ocean model PIOMAS from 2008-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peralta-Ferriz, Cecilia; Morison, James; Zhang, Jinlun; Bonin, Jennifer

    2014-05-01

    The variability of ocean bottom pressure (OBP) in the Arctic is dominated by the variations in sea surface height (SSH) from daily to monthly timescales. Conversely, OBP variability is dominated by the changes in the steric pressure (StP) at inter-annual timescales, particularly off the continental shelves. The combination of GRACE-derived ocean bottom pressure and ICESat altimetry-derived sea surface height variations in the Arctic Ocean have provided new means of identifying inter-annual trends in StP (StP = OBP-SSH) and associated freshwater content (FWC) of the Arctic region (Morison et al., 2012). Morison et al. (2012) showed that from 2004 to 2008, the FWC increased in the Beaufort Gyre and decreased in the Siberian and Central Arctic, resulting in a relatively small net basin-averaged FWC change. In this work, we investigate the inter-annual trends from 2008 to 2012 in OBP from GRACE, SSH from the state-of-the-art pan-Arctic ocean model PIOMAS -validated with tide and pressure gauges in the Arctic-, and compute the trends in StP and FWC from 2008-2012. We compare these results with the previous trends from 2005-2008 described in Morison et al. (2012). Our initial findings suggest increased salinity in the entire Arctic basin (relative to the climatological seasonal variation) from 2008-2012, compared to the preceding four years (2005-2008). We also find that the trends in OBP, SSH and StP from 2008-2012 present a different behavior during the spring-summer and fall-winter, unlike 2005-2008, in which the trends were generally consistent through all months of the year. It seems since 2009, when the Beaufort Gyre relaxed and the export of freshwater from the Canada Basin into the Canadian Archipelago and Fram Strait, via the Lincoln Sea, was anomalously large (de Steur et al., 2013), the Arctic Ocean has entered a new circulation regime. The causes of such changes in the inter-annual trends of OBP, SSH and StP -hence FWC-, associated with the changes in the

  2. Development of a Geographic Information System (GIS) tool for the preliminary assessment of the effects of predicted sea level and tidal change on transportation infrastructure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    In this project, researchers from the University of Florida developed a sketch planning tool that can be used to conduct statewide and regional assessments of transportation facilities potentially vulnerable to sea level change trends. Possible futur...

  3. Temporal trend, geographic distribution, and publication quality in asbestos research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ugolini, Donatella; Bonassi, Stefano; Cristaudo, Alfonso; Leoncini, Giacomo; Ratto, Giovanni Battista; Neri, Monica

    2015-05-01

    Asbestos is a well-known cause of cancer and respiratory diseases. The aim of the current study was to investigate the scientific production in asbestos research evaluating temporal trend, geographic distribution, impact factor (IF) of published literature, and taking into account socioeconomic variables. The PubMed database was searched starting from 1970. Publication numbers and IF were evaluated as absolute values and after standardization by population and gross domestic product (GDP). Six thousand nine hundred seven articles related to asbestos were retrieved. Publications grew steeply in the 1970s, leveled off in the 1980s, decreased in the 1990s, and then increased again. Mesothelioma, lung neoplasms, and occupational diseases are the most commonly used keywords. In the period of 1988-2011, 4220 citations were retrieved, 3187 of whom had an impact factor. The US, Italy, and the UK were the most productive countries. European countries published about 20 % more asbestos-related articles than the US, although the latter reached a higher mean IF, ranking second after Australia. When the national scientific production (sum of IF) was compared taking into account socioeconomic variables, Australia and Scandinavian countries performed very well, opposite to all main asbestos producers like Russia, China, and Brazil (except for Canada). The American Journal of Industrial Medicine and the Italian La Medicina del Lavoro published the highest numbers of articles. This study provides the first bibliometric analysis of scientific production in asbestos research. Interest appears to be higher in selected countries, with strong national features, and is growing again in the new millennium.

  4. [Principal component analysis and cluster analysis of inorganic elements in sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiao-Fang; Xue, Chang-Hu; Wang, Yu-Ming; Li, Zhao-Jie; Xue, Yong; Xu, Jie

    2011-11-01

    The present study is to investigate the feasibility of multi-elements analysis in determination of the geographical origin of sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus, and to make choice of the effective tracers in sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus geographical origin assessment. The content of the elements such as Al, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Mo, Cd, Hg and Pb in sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus samples from seven places of geographical origin were determined by means of ICP-MS. The results were used for the development of elements database. Cluster analysis(CA) and principal component analysis (PCA) were applied to differentiate the sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus geographical origin. Three principal components which accounted for over 89% of the total variance were extracted from the standardized data. The results of Q-type cluster analysis showed that the 26 samples could be clustered reasonably into five groups, the classification results were significantly associated with the marine distribution of the sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus samples. The CA and PCA were the effective methods for elements analysis of sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus samples. The content of the mineral elements in sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus samples was good chemical descriptors for differentiating their geographical origins.

  5. Policy trends of strategic environmental assessment in Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Victor, Dennis; Agamuthu, P.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • SEA policy trends in Asia indicate a proliferation of SEA legislation. • Primary SEA problem is its limited integration in strategic decision making. • Notable SEA progress is the emerging awareness on the need for SEA. • Main SEA prospects is in international regional cooperation on SEA. • SEA paradigm shift requires linkages of structural and non-structural policy instruments. - Abstract: This paper provides an overview on the policy trends of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in Asia. SEA is promoted as a system of incorporating environmental considerations into policies, plans and programmes (PPP). SEA has evolved from an alternative of environmental impact assessments (EIA) to a potential environmental policy integration (EPI) tool in national policy planning. Nevertheless, SEA trends in Asia require a re-examination on its role and effectiveness to avoid SEA implementation in Asia mimicking SEA developments in Europe without customizing its application to local conditions in Asia. Policy trends of SEA in Asia indicate that it is currently an important environmental policy consideration for countries in the region with the formulation of SEA legislations in Hong Kong, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and Indonesia. Nevertheless, SEA implementation also has been impeded by challenges in realizing practical SEA public participation especially in countries with traditionally high cultural power distance dynamics such as China, Indonesia and Vietnam. Meanwhile, countries such as Japan and Pakistan have voluntarily implemented SEA elements such as public participation without legislative provisions while countries such as Thailand, Philippines, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are resisting the adoption of SEA. The primary problem of SEA implementation in Asia has been its limited integration in strategic decision making due to the highly political nature of policy planning framed within the cultural context of Asian countries. Notable

  6. Expanding Antarctic Sea Ice: Anthropogenic or Natural Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitz, C. M.

    2016-12-01

    Antarctic sea ice extent has increased over the last 36 years according to the satellite record. Concurrent with Antarctic sea-ice expansion has been broad cooling of the Southern Ocean sea-surface temperature. Not only are Southern Ocean sea ice and SST trends at odds with expectations from greenhouse gas-induced warming, the trend patterns are not reproduced in historical simulations with comprehensive global climate models. While a variety of different factors may have contributed to the observed trends in recent decades, we propose that it is atmospheric circulation changes - and the changes in ocean circulation they induce - that have emerged as the most likely cause of the observed Southern Ocean sea ice and SST trends. I will discuss deficiencies in models that could explain their incorrect response. In addition, I will present results from a series of experiments where the Antarctic sea ice and ocean are forced by atmospheric perturbations imposed within a coupled climate model. Figure caption: Linear trends of annual-mean SST (left) and annual-mean sea-ice concentration (right) over 1980-2014. SST is from NOAA's Optimum Interpolation SST dataset (version 2; Reynolds et al. 2002). Sea-ice concentration is from passive microwave observations using the NASA Team algorithm. Only the annual means are shown here for brevity and because the signal to noise is greater than in the seasonal means. Figure from Armour and Bitz (2015).

  7. Recent sea surface temperature trends and future scenarios for the Mediterranean Sea:

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Shaltout

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We analyse recent Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures (SSTs and their response to global change using 1/4-degree gridded advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR daily SST data, 1982-2012. These data indicate significant annual warming (from 0.24°C decade-1 west of the Strait of Gibraltar to 0.51°C decade-1 over the Black Sea and significant spatial variation in annual average SST (from 15ºC over the Black Sea to 21°C over the Levantine sub-basin. Ensemble mean scenarios indicate that the study area SST may experience significant warming, peaking at 2.6°C century-1 in the Representative Concentration Pathways 85 (RCP85 scenario.

  8. Sea-ice indicators of polar bear habitat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. L. Stern

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Nineteen subpopulations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus are found throughout the circumpolar Arctic, and in all regions they depend on sea ice as a platform for traveling, hunting, and breeding. Therefore polar bear phenology – the cycle of biological events – is linked to the timing of sea-ice retreat in spring and advance in fall. We analyzed the dates of sea-ice retreat and advance in all 19 polar bear subpopulation regions from 1979 to 2014, using daily sea-ice concentration data from satellite passive microwave instruments. We define the dates of sea-ice retreat and advance in a region as the dates when the area of sea ice drops below a certain threshold (retreat on its way to the summer minimum or rises above the threshold (advance on its way to the winter maximum. The threshold is chosen to be halfway between the historical (1979–2014 mean September and mean March sea-ice areas. In all 19 regions there is a trend toward earlier sea-ice retreat and later sea-ice advance. Trends generally range from −3 to −9 days decade−1 in spring and from +3 to +9 days decade−1 in fall, with larger trends in the Barents Sea and central Arctic Basin. The trends are not sensitive to the threshold. We also calculated the number of days per year that the sea-ice area exceeded the threshold (termed ice-covered days and the average sea-ice concentration from 1 June through 31 October. The number of ice-covered days is declining in all regions at the rate of −7 to −19 days decade−1, with larger trends in the Barents Sea and central Arctic Basin. The June–October sea-ice concentration is declining in all regions at rates ranging from −1 to −9 percent decade−1. These sea-ice metrics (or indicators of habitat change were designed to be useful for management agencies and for comparative purposes among subpopulations. We recommend that the National Climate Assessment include the timing of sea-ice retreat and advance in

  9. Environmental conditions outweigh geographical contiguity in determining the similarity of nifH-harboring microbial communities in sediments of two disconnected marginal seas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haixia Zhou

    2016-07-01

    between the shallow-water and deep-water sediment diazotrophic communities and suggests that the in situ physical and geochemical conditions play a more important role than geographical contiguity in determining the community similarity of the diazotrophic microbiota in marginal sea sediments.

  10. Trends in the breeding population and driving factors of Adélie penguin in the Ross Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, H.; Li, X.; Cheng, X.

    2017-12-01

    Ross Sea regions have been characterized by high penguin-chick-rearing habitat suitability in the recent past. Many studies have been done to study the Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea. However, the data they used both had advantages and drawbacks. Besides, little quantitative analysis were carried out to study the impact factors on the penguin population change. In this study, penguin population data from MAPPPD (Mapping application for penguin populations and projected dynamics) and IBA (Important bird areas in Antarctica) were integrated and analyzed to study the distribution and trends in the breeding population of Adélie penguin over time in the Ross Sea. In addition, linear fitting method for spatial data in time series were used to study the driving factors such as 2m-temperature, sea ice cover and chlorophyll-a concentration which can quantify phytoplankton blooms. Results indicated that there were 45 Adélie penguin colonies in the Ross Sea. Cape Adare and Cape Crozier were two biggest colonies on which current Adélie penguin abundance were 428516 and 280787 breeding pairs, respectively. Among these colonies, penguin population on 28 colonies increased, on 5 colonies decreased and on 5 colonies remained no change over time, and there were also 5 new colonies and one colony which were extinct. It was found that Adélie penguin population in most of colonies in the Ross Sea increased, which meant that Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea were "climate change winners". The main reasons for the increase in Adélie penguin population in the Ross Sea might be the rise in 2m-temperature and the increase in sea ice cover and phytoplankton. Higher temperatures have resulted in glacial retreat and snow melting, which leads to an increase in available habitat for penguins. The increased sea ice and phytoplankton might positively affect the abundance of Antarctic krill that was the major prey item for Adélie penguins in Antarctic.

  11. Experiments in Reconstructing Twentieth-Century Sea Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Richard D.; Douglas, Bruce C.

    2011-01-01

    One approach to reconstructing historical sea level from the relatively sparse tide-gauge network is to employ Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) as interpolatory spatial basis functions. The EOFs are determined from independent global data, generally sea-surface heights from either satellite altimetry or a numerical ocean model. The problem is revisited here for sea level since 1900. A new approach to handling the tide-gauge datum problem by direct solution offers possible advantages over the method of integrating sea-level differences, with the potential of eventually adjusting datums into the global terrestrial reference frame. The resulting time series of global mean sea levels appears fairly insensitive to the adopted set of EOFs. In contrast, charts of regional sea level anomalies and trends are very sensitive to the adopted set of EOFs, especially for the sparser network of gauges in the early 20th century. The reconstructions appear especially suspect before 1950 in the tropical Pacific. While this limits some applications of the sea-level reconstructions, the sensitivity does appear adequately captured by formal uncertainties. All our solutions show regional trends over the past five decades to be fairly uniform throughout the global ocean, in contrast to trends observed over the shorter altimeter era. Consistent with several previous estimates, the global sea-level rise since 1900 is 1.70 +/- 0.26 mm/yr. The global trend since 1995 exceeds 3 mm/yr which is consistent with altimeter measurements, but this large trend was possibly also reached between 1935 and 1950.

  12. Recent sea surface temperature trends and future scenarios for the Mediterranean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Shaltout

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We analyse recent Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures (SSTs and their response to global change using 1/4-degree gridded advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR daily SST data, 1982–2012. These data indicate significant annual warming (from 0.24 °C decade−1 west of the Strait of Gibraltar to 0.51 °C decade−1 over the Black Sea and significant spatial variation in annual average SST (from 15 °C over the Black Sea to 21 °C over the Levantine sub-basin. Ensemble mean scenarios indicate that the study area SST may experience significant warming, peaking at 2.6 °C century−1 in the Representative Concentration Pathways 85 (RCP85 scenario.

  13. Geographical variation and sexual differences of body length and age composition in Rana temporaria: the ontogenetic development and phenotypic trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyapkov Sergey

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of literature data on the mean values of age and body length of adult individuals of widespread species Rana temporaria from about 70 spatially separated populations, including our published data, was conducted. The evident trend in population mean age increase with the decrease of the of activity season length was revealed as well as the absence of that trend in the mean body length, with the maximal mean value in body length being near central part of the range. Our explanation of non-linear trend in the mean values of body length does not contradict other models of geographic variability explaining the correspondence and discrepance with the Bergman rule. In addition our explanation corresponds to the revealed features of interpopulation variation in growth rate. The revealed trend of variation in the mean body length is resulted from both growth rate decrease and mean age increase with the decrease in the length of activity season. The relatively low mean values of body length in populations from south and southern-west borders of the range are explained not only by low mean age but by lower growth rate despite high length of activity season. The interpopulation variation in body length is determined not only by body length but by age composition differences both between and within population. Therefore, the direction and intensity of sexual differences have not distinct trends, and the correspondence to Rensch rule (in contrast to Bergman rule is rarely observed.

  14. Temporal variability in SeaWiFS derived apparent optical properties in European seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vantrepotte, V.; Mélin, F.

    2010-02-01

    The 10-year record of ocean color data provided by the SeaWiFS mission is an important asset for monitoring and research activities conducted on the optically complex European seas. This study makes use of the SeaWiFS data set of normalized water leaving radiances LWN to study the major characteristics of temporal variability associated with optical properties across the entire European domain. Specifically, the time series of LWN and associated band ratios are decomposed into terms representing a fixed seasonal cycle, irregular variations and trends, and the contribution of these components to the total variance is described for the various basins. The diversity of the European waters is fully reflected by the range of results varying with regions and wavelengths. Generally, the Mediterranean and Baltic seas appear as two end-members with, respectively, high and low contributions of the seasonal component to the total variance. The existence of linear trends affecting the satellite products is also explored for each basin. By focusing the analysis on LWN and band ratios, the validity of the results is not limited by the varying levels of uncertainty that characterize derived products such as the concentration of chlorophyll a in optically complex waters. Statistically significant, and in some cases large, trends are detected in the Atlantic Ocean west of the European western shelf, the central North Sea, the English Channel, the Black Sea, the northern Adriatic, and various regions of the Mediterranean Sea and the northern Baltic Sea, revealing changes in the concentrations of optically significant constituents in these regions.

  15. Sea level anomaly on the Patagonian continental shelf: Trends, annual patterns and geostrophic flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraceno, M.; Piola, A. R.; Strub, P. T.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We study the annual patterns and linear trend of satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) over the southwest South Atlantic continental shelf (SWACS) between 54ºS and 36ºS. Results show that south of 42°S the thermal steric effect explains nearly 100% of the annual amplitude of the SLA, while north of 42°S it explains less than 60%. This difference is due to the halosteric contribution. The annual wind variability plays a minor role over the whole continental shelf. The temporal linear trend in SLA ranges between 1 and 5 mm/yr (95% confidence level). The largest linear trends are found north of 39°S, at 42°S and at 50°S. We propose that in the northern region the large positive linear trends are associated with local changes in the density field caused by advective effects in response to a southward displacement of the South Atlantic High. The causes of the relative large SLA trends in two southern coastal regions are discussed as a function meridional wind stress and river discharge. Finally, we combined the annual cycle of SLA with the mean dynamic topography to estimate the absolute geostrophic velocities. This approach provides the first comprehensive description of the seasonal component of SWACS circulation based on satellite observations. The general circulation of the SWACS is northeastward with stronger/weaker geostrophic currents in austral summer/winter. At all latitudes, geostrophic velocities are larger (up to 20 cm/s) close to the shelf‐break and decrease toward the coast. This spatio‐temporal pattern is more intense north of 45°S. PMID:27840784

  16. Multisensor satellite data integration for sea surface wind speed and direction determination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glackin, D. L.; Pihos, G. G.; Wheelock, S. L.

    1984-01-01

    Techniques to integrate meteorological data from various satellite sensors to yield a global measure of sea surface wind speed and direction for input to the Navy's operational weather forecast models were investigated. The sensors were launched or will be launched, specifically the GOES visible and infrared imaging sensor, the Nimbus-7 SMMR, and the DMSP SSM/I instrument. An algorithm for the extrapolation to the sea surface of wind directions as derived from successive GOES cloud images was developed. This wind veering algorithm is relatively simple, accounts for the major physical variables, and seems to represent the best solution that can be found with existing data. An algorithm for the interpolation of the scattered observed data to a common geographical grid was implemented. The algorithm is based on a combination of inverse distance weighting and trend surface fitting, and is suited to combing wind data from disparate sources.

  17. NOAA Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry Sea Level Rise Products: Global and regional sea level time series and trend maps for the major ocean basins and marginal seas, based on measurements from satellite radar altimeters, from 1992-12-17 to 2017-08-11 (NCEI Accession 0125535)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This archival package contains global and regional mean sea level time series and trend maps calculated on a continual basis since December 1992 by Laboratory for...

  18. Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Oman, Luke; Hurwitz, Margaret

    2015-01-01

    The springtime Arctic polar vortex has cooled significantly over the satellite era, with consequences for ozone concentrations in the springtime transition season. The causes of this cooling trend are deduced by using comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments. Approximately half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically- and radiatively-active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs, and cooling of the tropical Pacific, have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring, and to a weak polar stratospheric warming in early winter. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone changes are magnified in the presence of changing gas concentrations. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.

  19. Joint sea studies of the IAEA and European Union mediterranean partner ship

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fowler, S.; Miquel, J.C.; Boisson, F.

    1998-01-01

    Several oceanographic and geographic features of the Mediterranean Sea render it particularly vulnerable to the potential effects of anthropogenic pollutants. The sea is a relatively shallow, semi-enclosed body of water with only limited water exchange taking place at Straits of Gibraltar and through the Bosphorus. Less saline Atlantic surface water enters at Gibraltar and slowly circulates counter clockwise around the Mediterranean basin. There it gradually becomes warmer and more saline due to insolation and intense evaporation. The weak coastal current systems and general lack of tides combine to reduce dispersion of pollutants entering its coastal water. Furthermore, recent construction of dams on some major rivers have substantially reduced spring runoff which tends to cleanse the shelf region of deposited contaminants. Given the Sea's special geographical setting and potential sensitivity to human activity, it is not surprising that over the last decade much effort has been put into studying its biogeochemical structure and functioning. Furthermore, the Sea's restricted size affords marine scientists the opportunity to study, on a reduced scale, processes typical of the world's oceans. Recent trends in oceanography have shown that the degree of our understanding these processes significantly improves when the questions to be answered are addressed in a multidisciplinary way. Recognizing this fact, the European Union (EU) has mounted various large-scale multidisciplinary marine programmes, several of which have focused on the Mediterranean Sea. Because of its long history of collaborative work in the Mediterranean, the IAEA's Marine Environmental Laboratory (MEL) in Monaco has been invited by several EU partner institutes to contribute to these programmes, usually in the area of employing nuclear techniques to study key oceanic processes. These EU-supported programmed have been instrumental in broadening MEL's extrabugetary funding base, which is often

  20. Trends in the Breeding Population of Adélie Penguins in the Ross Sea, 1981–2012: A Coincidence of Climate and Resource Extraction Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyver, Phil O’B.; Barron, Mandy; Barton, Kerry J.; Ainley, David G.; Pollard, Annie; Gordon, Shulamit; McNeill, Stephen; Ballard, Grant; Wilson, Peter R.

    2014-01-01

    Measurements of the size of Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colonies of the southern Ross Sea are among the longest biologic time series in the Antarctic. We present an assessment of recent annual variation and trends in abundance and growth rates of these colonies, adding to the published record not updated for more than two decades. High angle oblique aerial photographic surveys of colonies were acquired and penguins counted for the breeding seasons 1981–2012. In the last four years the numbers of Adélie penguins in the Ross and Beaufort Island colonies (southern Ross Sea metapopulation) reached their highest levels since aerial counts began in 1981. Results indicated that 855,625 pairs of Adélie penguins established breeding territories in the western Ross Sea, with just over a quarter (28%) of those in the southern portion, constituting a semi-isolated metapopulation (three colonies on Ross Island, one on nearby Beaufort Island). The southern population had a negative per capita growth rate of −0.019 during 1981–2000, followed by a positive per capita growth rate of 0.067 for 2001–2012. Colony growth rates for this metapopulation showed striking synchrony through time, indicating that large-scale factors influenced their annual growth. In contrast to the increased colony sizes in the southern population, the patterns of change among colonies of the northern Ross Sea were difficult to characterize. Trends were similar to southern colonies until the mid-1990s, after which the signal was lost owing to significantly reduced frequency of surveys. Both climate factors and recovery of whale populations likely played roles in the trends among southern colonies until 2000, after which depletion of another trophic competitor, the Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni), may explain the sharp increasing trend evident since then. PMID:24621601

  1. Global sea turtle conservation successes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazaris, Antonios D; Schofield, Gail; Gkazinou, Chrysoula; Almpanidou, Vasiliki; Hays, Graeme C

    2017-09-01

    We document a tendency for published estimates of population size in sea turtles to be increasing rather than decreasing across the globe. To examine the population status of the seven species of sea turtle globally, we obtained 299 time series of annual nesting abundance with a total of 4417 annual estimates. The time series ranged in length from 6 to 47 years (mean, 16.2 years). When levels of abundance were summed within regional management units (RMUs) for each species, there were upward trends in 12 RMUs versus downward trends in 5 RMUs. This prevalence of more upward than downward trends was also evident in the individual time series, where we found 95 significant increases in abundance and 35 significant decreases. Adding to this encouraging news for sea turtle conservation, we show that even small sea turtle populations have the capacity to recover, that is, Allee effects appear unimportant. Positive trends in abundance are likely linked to the effective protection of eggs and nesting females, as well as reduced bycatch. However, conservation concerns remain, such as the decline in leatherback turtles in the Eastern and Western Pacific. Furthermore, we also show that, often, time series are too short to identify trends in abundance. Our findings highlight the importance of continued conservation and monitoring efforts that underpin this global conservation success story.

  2. Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Melt Onset, Freeze-Up, and Melt Season Length

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markus, Thorsten; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Miller, Jeffrey

    2010-01-01

    In order to explore changes and trends in the timing of Arctic sea ice melt onset and freeze-up and therefore melt season length, we developed a method that obtains this information directly from satellite passive microwave data, creating a consistent data set from 1979 through present. We furthermore distinguish between early melt (the first day of the year when melt is detected) and the first day of continuous melt. A similar distinction is made for the freeze-up. Using this method we analyze trends in melt onset and freeze-up for 10 different Arctic regions. In all regions except for the Sea of Okhotsk, which shows a very slight and statistically insignificant positive trend (O.4 days/decade), trends in melt onset are negative, i.e. towards earlier melt. The trends range from -1.0day/decade for the Bering Sea to -7.3 days/decade for the East Greenland Sea. Except for the Sea of Okhotsk all areas also show a trend towards later autumn freeze onset. The Chukchi/Beaufort Seas and Laptev/East Siberian Seas observe the strongest trends with 7 days/decade. For the entire Arctic, the melt season length has increased by about 20 days over the last 30 years. Largest trends of over 1O days/decade are seen for Hudson Bay, the East Greenland Sea the Laptev/East Siberian Seas, and the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas. Those trends are statistically significant a1 the 99% level.

  3. Response of Antarctic sea surface temperature and sea ice to ozone depletion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, D.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Kostov, Y.; Marshall, J.; Seviour, W.; Waugh, D.

    2017-12-01

    The influence of the Antarctic ozone hole extends all the way from the stratosphere through the troposphere down to the surface, with clear signatures on surface winds, and SST during summer. In this talk we discuss the impact of these changes on the ocean circulation and sea ice state. We are notably motivated by the observed cooling of the surface Southern Ocean and associated increase in Antarctic sea ice extent since the 1970s. These trends are not reproduced by CMIP5 climate models, and the underlying mechanism at work in nature and the models remain unexplained. Did the ozone hole contribute to the observed trends?Here, we review recent advances toward answering these issues using "abrupt ozone depletion" experiments. The ocean and sea ice response is rather complex, comprising two timescales: a fast ( 1-2y) cooling of the surface ocean and sea ice cover increase, followed by a slower warming trend, which, depending on models, flip the sign of the SST and sea ice responses on decadal timescale. Although the basic mechanism seems robust, comparison across climate models reveal large uncertainties in the timescales and amplitude of the response to the extent that even the sign of the ocean and sea ice response to ozone hole and recovery remains unconstrained. After briefly describing the dynamics and thermodynamics behind the two-timescale response, we will discuss the main sources of uncertainties in the modeled response, namely cloud effects and air-sea heat exchanges, surface wind stress response and ocean eddy transports. Finally, we will consider the implications of our results on the ability of coupled climate models to reproduce observed Southern Ocean changes.

  4. Trends in child immunization across geographical regions in India: focus on urban-rural and gender differentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Prashant Kumar

    2013-01-01

    Although child immunization is regarded as a highly cost-effective lifesaver, about fifty percent of the eligible children aged 12-23 months in India are without essential immunization coverage. Despite several programmatic initiatives, urban-rural and gender difference in child immunization pose an intimidating challenge to India's public health agenda. This study assesses the urban-rural and gender difference in child immunization coverage during 1992-2006 across six major geographical regions in India. Three rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) conducted during 1992-93, 1998-99 and 2005-06 were analyzed. Bivariate analyses, urban-rural and gender inequality ratios, and the multivariate-pooled logistic regression model were applied to examine the trends and patterns of inequalities over time. The analysis of change over one and half decades (1992-2006) shows considerable variations in child immunization coverage across six geographical regions in India. Despite a decline in urban-rural and gender differences over time, children residing in rural areas and girls remained disadvantaged. Moreover, northeast, west and south regions, which had the lowest gender inequality in 1992 observed an increase in gender difference over time. Similarly, urban-rural inequality increased in the west region during 1992-2006. This study suggests periodic evaluation of the health care system is vital to assess the between and within group difference beyond average improvement. It is essential to integrate strong immunization systems with broad health systems and coordinate with other primary health care delivery programs to augment immunization coverage.

  5. Three explanations for biodiversity hotspots: small range size, geographical overlap and time for species accumulation. An Australian case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Lyn G; Hardy, Nate B; Crisp, Michael D

    2015-07-01

    To understand the generation and maintenance of biodiversity hotspots, we tested three major hypotheses: rates of diversification, ecological limits to diversity, and time for species accumulation. Using dated molecular phylogenies, measures of species' range size and geographical clade overlap, niche modelling, and lineages-through-time plots of Australian Fabaceae, we compared the southwest Australia Floristic Region (SWAFR; a global biodiversity hotspot) with a latitudinally equivalent non-hotspot, southeast Australia (SEA). Ranges of species (real and simulated) were smaller in the SWAFR than in SEA. Geographical overlap of clades was significantly greater for Daviesia in the SWAFR than in SEA, but the inverse for Bossiaea. Lineage diversification rates over the past 10 Myr did not differ between the SWAFR and SEA in either genus. Interaction of multiple factors probably explains the differences in measured diversity between the two regions. Steeper climatic gradients in the SWAFR probably explain the smaller geographical ranges of both genera there. Greater geographical overlap of clades in the SWAFR, combined with a longer time in the region, can explain why Daviesia is far more species-rich there than in SEA. Our results indicate that the time for speciation and ecological limits hypotheses, in concert, can explain the differences in biodiversity. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

  6. Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.

    2017-10-01

    Historical trends in the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inverse model is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are significant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trend in the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Pacific, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state-of-the-art climate models are not capturing the observed response of the tropical Pacific to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate models have a significant strengthening of the SST gradient between 1900 and 2013 Common Era, though smaller in magnitude than the observational data sets, and the strengthening in three out of five observational data sets is insignificant. When combined with observational uncertainties and the possibility of centennial time scale internal variability not sampled by the linear inverse model, this suggests that confident validation of anthropogenic SST gradient trends in climate models will require further emergence of anthropogenic trends. Regardless, the differences in SST gradient trends between climate models and observational data sets are concerning and motivate the need for process-level validation of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics relevant to climate change in the tropical Pacific.

  7. Sex and Geographic Differences in the Prevalence of Reported Childhood Motor Disability and Their Trends in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Yen-Cheng

    2018-01-01

    Motor disability (MD) is not uncommon in children, but data at the national level are scarce. As the Taiwan government certifies and registers disabled residents for providing services on a routine basis, the registry provides a unique opportunity for studying MD. Using data from the registry, we calculated the prevalence of MD by age, sex, and geographic area and assessed the changes from 2004 to 2010. We excluded cases under 3 years old because the government discourages the certification at this age. We found that cases between 3 and 17 years old decreased from 8187 to 6022 per year from 2004 to 2010 and the prevalence generally decreased every year in all age groups. There were more boy cases than girl cases every year, and the prevalence rate ratios ranged from 1.26 to 1.39 (p < 0.05 in all years), with a decreasing trend over time (p < 0.01). Rural areas had higher prevalence in all the years, and the prevalence rate ratio decreased from 1.31 to 1.23 (p < 0.05 in all years), with a decreasing trend over time (p < 0.05). Further studies identifying the risk factors contributing to the decreases might help in the prevention of MD in the future. PMID:29850547

  8. Sex and Geographic Differences in the Prevalence of Reported Childhood Motor Disability and Their Trends in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Fang Tsai

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Motor disability (MD is not uncommon in children, but data at the national level are scarce. As the Taiwan government certifies and registers disabled residents for providing services on a routine basis, the registry provides a unique opportunity for studying MD. Using data from the registry, we calculated the prevalence of MD by age, sex, and geographic area and assessed the changes from 2004 to 2010. We excluded cases under 3 years old because the government discourages the certification at this age. We found that cases between 3 and 17 years old decreased from 8187 to 6022 per year from 2004 to 2010 and the prevalence generally decreased every year in all age groups. There were more boy cases than girl cases every year, and the prevalence rate ratios ranged from 1.26 to 1.39 (p<0.05 in all years, with a decreasing trend over time (p<0.01. Rural areas had higher prevalence in all the years, and the prevalence rate ratio decreased from 1.31 to 1.23 (p<0.05 in all years, with a decreasing trend over time (p<0.05. Further studies identifying the risk factors contributing to the decreases might help in the prevention of MD in the future.

  9. Recent Arctic Sea Level Variations from Satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Piccioni, Gaia

    2016-01-01

    Sea level monitoring in the Arctic region has always been an extreme challenge for remote sensing, and in particular for satellite altimetry. Despite more than two decades of observations, altimetry is still limited in the inner Arctic Ocean. We have developed an updated version of the Danish...... Technical University's (DTU) Arctic Ocean altimetric sea level timeseries starting in 1993 and now extended up to 2015 with CryoSat-2 data. The time-series covers a total of 23 years, which allows higher accuracy in sea level trend determination. The record shows a sea level trend of 2.2 ± 1.1 mm....../y for the region between 66°N and 82°N. In particular, a local increase of 15 mm/y is found in correspondence to the Beaufort Gyre. An early estimate of the mean sea level trend budget closure in the Arctic for the period 2005–2015 was derived by using the Equivalent Water Heights obtained from GRACE Tellus...

  10. Spatial and temporal trends of selected trace elements in liver tissue from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Alaska, Canada and Greenland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Routti, Heli; Letcher, Robert J; Born, Erik W; Branigan, Marsha; Dietz, Rune; Evans, Thomas J; Fisk, Aaron T; Peacock, Elizabeth; Sonne, Christian

    2011-08-01

    Spatial trends and comparative changes in time of selected trace elements were studied in liver tissue from polar bears from ten different subpopulation locations in Alaska, Canadian Arctic and East Greenland. For nine of the trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mn, Pb, Rb, Se and Zn) spatial trends were investigated in 136 specimens sampled during 2005-2008 from bears from these ten subpopulations. Concentrations of Hg, Se and As were highest in the (northern and southern) Beaufort Sea area and lowest in (western and southern) Hudson Bay area and Chukchi/Bering Sea. In contrast, concentrations of Cd showed an increasing trend from east to west. Minor or no spatial trends were observed for Cu, Mn, Rb and Zn. Spatial trends were in agreement with previous studies, possibly explained by natural phenomena. To assess temporal changes of Cd, Hg, Se and Zn concentrations during the last decades, we compared our results to previously published data. These time comparisons suggested recent Hg increase in East Greenland polar bears. This may be related to Hg emissions and/or climate-induced changes in Hg cycles or changes in the polar bear food web related to global warming. Also, Hg:Se molar ratio has increased in East Greenland polar bears, which suggests there may be an increased risk for Hg(2+)-mediated toxicity. Since the underlying reasons for spatial trends or changes in time of trace elements in the Arctic are still largely unknown, future studies should focus on the role of changing climate and trace metal emissions on geographical and temporal trends of trace elements.

  11. Seasonal and elevational contrasts in temperature trends in Central Chile between 1979 and 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, F.; Brock, B.; Montecinos, A.

    2018-03-01

    We analyze trends in temperature from 18 temperature stations and one upper air sounding site at 30°-35° S in central Chile between 1979-2015, to explore geographical and season temperature trends and their controls, using regional ocean-atmosphere indices. Significant warming trends are widespread at inland stations, while trends are non-significant or negative at coastal sites, as found in previous studies. However, ubiquitous warming across the region in the past 8 years, suggests the recent period of coastal cooling has ended. Significant warming trends are largely restricted to austral spring, summer and autumn seasons, with very few significant positive or negative trends in winter identified. Autumn warming is notably strong in the Andes, which, together with significant warming in spring, could help to explain the negative mass balance of snow and glaciers in the region. A strong Pacific maritime influence on regional temperature trends is inferred through correlation with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index and coastal sea surface temperature, but the strength of this influence rapidly diminishes inland, and the majority of valley, and all Andes, sites are independent of the IPO index. Instead, valley and Andes sites, and mid-troposphere temperature in the coastal radiosonde profile, show correlation with the autumn Antarctic Oscillation which, in its current positive phase, promotes subsidence and warming at the latitude of central Chile.

  12. On the mechanisms of late 20th century sea-surface temperature trends over the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravtsov, Sergey; Kamenkovich, Igor; Hogg, Andrew M.; Peters, John M.

    2011-11-01

    The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), with its associated three-dimensional circulation, plays an important role in global climate. This study concentrates on surface signatures of recent climate change in the ACC region and on mechanisms that control this change. Examination of climate model simulations shows that they match the observed late 20th century sea-surface temperature (SST) trends averaged over this region quite well, despite underestimating the observed surface-wind increases. Such wind increases, however, are expected to lead to significant cooling of the region, contradicting the observed SST trends. Motivated by recent theories of the ACC response to variable wind and radiative forcing, the authors used two idealized models to assess contributions of various dynamical processes to the SST evolution in the region. In particular, a high-resolution channel model of the ACC responds to increasing winds by net surface ACC warming due to enhanced mesoscale turbulence and associated heat transports in the mixed layer. These fluxes, modeled, in a highly idealized fashion, via increased lateral surface mixing in a coarse-resolution hybrid climate model, substantially offset zonally non-uniform surface cooling due to air-sea flux and Ekman-transport anomalies. These results suggest that the combination of these opposing effects must be accounted for when estimating climate response to any external forcing in the ACC region.

  13. Development of Geographic Information Systems and their use in National Libraries of Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Kotelnikova

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available By the end of the 20th century cartography has amassed a vast array of information on major aspects of existence, interaction and the functioning of nature and society owing to vigorous automation and computerisation. These are applied for the purpose of creating geographic information systems (GIS. The main function of geographic information systems is the storage and use of computer (electronic maps and atlases. Geographic information systems differ from each other in their territorial levels (global, national, regional, municipal and others and by their subjects (land, cadastre, ecological, sea and other maps. The geographic information system, ‘Black Sea’ is cited as an example. This is an information-based project compiled with a view to taking decisions on the protection of the resources of the basin of the Black Sea. The Black Sea GIS was developed for use by governments, scientists, the general public, NGOs and the media for the following purposes: · planning for marine environment activities and impacts on a regional scale; · public awareness through training, education, workshops, lectures and media; · scientific analysis, modelling, ecological impact assessment, science planning. The main GIS components are designed to perform the following functions: · data input; · data storage and database management; · data analysis and processing; · interaction with the user (graphical/map editing; and · data output and presentation (plotting.

  14. Geographical variation of shell thickness in the mussel Perumytilus purpuratus along the southeast Pacific coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briones, Carolina; Rivadeneira, Marcelo M; Fernández, Miriam; Guiñez, Ricardo

    2014-12-01

    At broad geographical scales, the variation in bivalve shell thickness can be modulated by environmental factors that vary with latitude, such as sea surface temperature (SST), seawater pH, or calcium carbonate availability. Mussels usually form multilayered beds, and shell thickness is also expected to be affected by density and layering due to intraspecific competition. In this work, we explored the geographical variation of shell thickness in the intertidal mussel Perumytilus purpuratus between 18° and 42°S along the southeastern Pacific coast. We tested the hypothesis that there was a positive relationship between shell thickness and SST, and then we explored other variables that could have an effect on thickness, such as density, number of layers, and others environmental variables (pH and calcite concentration). The expected positive linear relationship between shell thickness and sea surface temperature was not found, but when the other population variables were included in the analysis, an unexpected inverse SST-thickness relationships appeared as significant, probably because this species could be adapted to colder and more acid seawater as are those of the tips of South America. Thickness was also negatively affected by density, which was expected for a gregarious species showing high intraspecific competition. Finally, our results highlight the importance of including density and crowding effects when macroscale patterns are explored, particularly in gregarious species, since these patterns could also be modulated by density-dependent processes, which might then override latitudinal trends of shell thickness when they are not included in the analyses. © 2014 Marine Biological Laboratory.

  15. Fourier transform near-infrared spectroscopy application for sea salt quality evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvis-Sánchez, Andrea C; Lopes, João Almeida; Delgadillo, Ivonne; Rangel, António O S S

    2011-10-26

    Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy in diffuse reflectance mode was explored with the objective of discriminating sea salts according to their quality type (traditional salt vs "flower of salt") and geographical origin (Atlantic vs Mediterranean). Sea salts were also analyzed in terms of Ca(2+), Mg(2+), K(+), alkalinity, and sulfate concentrations to support spectroscopic results. High concentrations of Mg(2+) and K(+) characterized Atlantic samples, while a high Ca(2+) content was observed in traditional sea salts. A partial least-squares discriminant analysis model considering the 8500-7500 cm(-1) region permitted the discrimination of salts by quality types. The regions 4650-4350 and 5900-5500 cm(-1) allowed salts classification according to their geographical origin. It was possible to classify correctly 85.3 and 94.8% of the analyzed samples according to the salt type and to the geographical origin, respectively. These results demonstrated that NIR spectroscopy is a suitable and very efficient tool for sea salt quality evaluation.

  16. Baltic Sea: Radionuclides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Sven Poul; Lüning, Maria; Ilus, Erkki

    2011-01-01

    The most significant source of anthropogenic radioactivity in the Baltic Sea is fallout from the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986. The second most important source is global fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests carried out during the late 1950s and early 1960s...... about 14%. For 90Sr in the Baltic Sea, input from atmospheric fallout from nuclear weapons tests has contributed about 81%, while the contribution from Chernobyl fallout was about 13%. Cesium-137 is the main indicator of Baltic seawater with respect to anthropogenic radioactivity. The highest...... concentrations in seawater during 1999–2006 were found in the Baltic Proper and the Bothnian Sea. The general trend is steadily decreasing. Concentrations of anthropogenic radioactivity in fish generally show decreasing trends in agreement with concentrations in seawater. Among freshwater fish, pike showed large...

  17. Baltic Sea: Radionuclides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Sven Poul; Lüning, Maria; Ilus, Erkki

    2010-01-01

    The most significant source of anthropogenic radioactivity in the Baltic Sea is fallout from the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986. The second most important source is global fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests carried out during the late 1950s and early 1960s...... about 14%. For 90Sr in the Baltic Sea, input from atmospheric fallout from nuclear weapons tests has contributed about 81%, while the contribution from Chernobyl fallout was about 13%. Cesium-137 is the main indicator of Baltic seawater with respect to anthropogenic radioactivity. The highest...... concentrations in seawater during 1999–2006 were found in the Baltic Proper and the Bothnian Sea. The general trend is steadily decreasing. Concentrations of anthropogenic radioactivity in fish generally show decreasing trends in agreement with concentrations in seawater. Among freshwater fish, pike showed large...

  18. The Ross Sea Dipole - temperature, snow accumulation and sea ice variability in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica, over the past 2700 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertler, Nancy A. N.; Conway, Howard; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Emanuelsson, Daniel B.; Winstrup, Mai; Vallelonga, Paul T.; Lee, James E.; Brook, Ed J.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.; Fudge, Taylor J.; Keller, Elizabeth D.; Baisden, W. Troy; Hindmarsh, Richard C. A.; Neff, Peter D.; Blunier, Thomas; Edwards, Ross; Mayewski, Paul A.; Kipfstuhl, Sepp; Buizert, Christo; Canessa, Silvia; Dadic, Ruzica; Kjær, Helle A.; Kurbatov, Andrei; Zhang, Dongqi; Waddington, Edwin D.; Baccolo, Giovanni; Beers, Thomas; Brightley, Hannah J.; Carter, Lionel; Clemens-Sewall, David; Ciobanu, Viorela G.; Delmonte, Barbara; Eling, Lukas; Ellis, Aja; Ganesh, Shruthi; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Haines, Skylar; Handley, Michael; Hawley, Robert L.; Hogan, Chad M.; Johnson, Katelyn M.; Korotkikh, Elena; Lowry, Daniel P.; Mandeno, Darcy; McKay, Robert M.; Menking, James A.; Naish, Timothy R.; Noerling, Caroline; Ollive, Agathe; Orsi, Anaïs; Proemse, Bernadette C.; Pyne, Alexander R.; Pyne, Rebecca L.; Renwick, James; Scherer, Reed P.; Semper, Stefanie; Simonsen, Marius; Sneed, Sharon B.; Steig, Eric J.; Tuohy, Andrea; Ulayottil Venugopal, Abhijith; Valero-Delgado, Fernando; Venkatesh, Janani; Wang, Feitang; Wang, Shimeng; Winski, Dominic A.; Winton, V. Holly L.; Whiteford, Arran; Xiao, Cunde; Yang, Jiao; Zhang, Xin

    2018-02-01

    High-resolution, well-dated climate archives provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamic interactions of climate patterns relevant for future projections. Here, we present data from a new, annually dated ice core record from the eastern Ross Sea, named the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core. Comparison of this record with climate reanalysis data for the 1979-2012 interval shows that RICE reliably captures temperature and snow precipitation variability in the region. Trends over the past 2700 years in RICE are shown to be distinct from those in West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea captured by other ice cores. For most of this interval, the eastern Ross Sea was warming (or showing isotopic enrichment for other reasons), with increased snow accumulation and perhaps decreased sea ice concentration. However, West Antarctica cooled and the western Ross Sea showed no significant isotope temperature trend. This pattern here is referred to as the Ross Sea Dipole. Notably, during the Little Ice Age, West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea experienced colder than average temperatures, while the eastern Ross Sea underwent a period of warming or increased isotopic enrichment. From the 17th century onwards, this dipole relationship changed. All three regions show current warming, with snow accumulation declining in West Antarctica and the eastern Ross Sea but increasing in the western Ross Sea. We interpret this pattern as reflecting an increase in sea ice in the eastern Ross Sea with perhaps the establishment of a modern Roosevelt Island polynya as a local moisture source for RICE.

  19. Is sea-level rising?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    correction in the estimation of trends obtained for tide gauge records. The altimeter data permits to prepare spatial maps of sea-level rise trends. We present a map prepared for the Indian Ocean (Figure 4) north of 10oS , which shows a fairly uniform... drawn information from research papers published by the author and report of the IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 13: Sea Level Changes, in which the author has served as a ‘Lead Author’. Figure1 is prepared using data from the University of Colorado. Nerem, R...

  20. Time trends for prostate cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions: An age-period-cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braga, Sonia Faria Mendes; de Souza, Mirian Carvalho; Cherchiglia, Mariangela Leal

    2017-10-01

    In the 1980s, an increase in mortality rates for prostate cancer was observed in North America and developed European countries. In the 1990s, however, mortality rates decreased for these countries, an outcome related to early detection of the disease. Conversely, an upward trend in mortality rates was observed in Brazil. This study describe the trends in mortality for prostate cancer in Brazil and geographic regions (North, Northeast, South, Southeast, and Central-West) between 1980 until 2014 and analyze the influence of age, period, and cohort effects on mortality rates. This time-series study used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and population data from Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The effects on mortality rates were examined using age-period-cohort (APC) models. Crude and standardized mortality rates showed an upward trend for Brazil and its regions more than 2-fold the last 30 years. Age effects showed an increased risk of death in all regions. Period effects showed a higher risk of death in the finals periods for the North and Northeast. Cohort effects showed risk of death was higher for younger than older generations in Brazil and regions, mainly Northeast (RR Adjusted =3.12, 95% CI 1.29-1.41; RR Adjusted =0.28, 95% CI 0.26-0.30, respectively). The increase in prostate cancer mortality rates in Brazil and its regions was mainly due to population aging. The differences in mortality rates and APC effects between regions are related to demographic differences and access of health services across the country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Removing Regional Trends in Microgravity in Complex Environments: Testing on 3D Model and Field Investigations in the Eastern Dead Sea Coast (Jordan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Al-Zoubi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Microgravity investigations are now recognized as a powerful tool for subsurface imaging and especially for the localization of underground karsts. However numerous natural (geological, technical, and environmental factors interfere with microgravity survey processing and interpretation. One of natural factors that causes the most disturbance in complex geological environments is the influence of regional trends. In the Dead Sea coastal areas the influence of regional trends can exceed residual gravity effects by some tenfold. Many widely applied methods are unable to remove regional trends with sufficient accuracy. We tested number of transformation methods (including computing gravity field derivatives, self-adjusting and adaptive filtering, Fourier series, wavelet, and other procedures on a 3D model (complicated by randomly distributed noise, and field investigations were carried out in Ghor Al-Haditha (the eastern side of the Dead Sea in Jordan. We show that the most effective methods for regional trend removal (at least for the theoretical and field cases here are the bilinear saddle and local polynomial regressions. Application of these methods made it possible to detect the anomalous gravity effect from buried targets in the theoretical model and to extract the local gravity anomaly at the Ghor Al-Haditha site. The local anomaly was utilized for 3D gravity modeling to construct a physical-geological model (PGM.

  2. Trends in child immunization across geographical regions in India: focus on urban-rural and gender differentials.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prashant Kumar Singh

    Full Text Available Although child immunization is regarded as a highly cost-effective lifesaver, about fifty percent of the eligible children aged 12-23 months in India are without essential immunization coverage. Despite several programmatic initiatives, urban-rural and gender difference in child immunization pose an intimidating challenge to India's public health agenda. This study assesses the urban-rural and gender difference in child immunization coverage during 1992-2006 across six major geographical regions in India.Three rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS conducted during 1992-93, 1998-99 and 2005-06 were analyzed. Bivariate analyses, urban-rural and gender inequality ratios, and the multivariate-pooled logistic regression model were applied to examine the trends and patterns of inequalities over time.The analysis of change over one and half decades (1992-2006 shows considerable variations in child immunization coverage across six geographical regions in India. Despite a decline in urban-rural and gender differences over time, children residing in rural areas and girls remained disadvantaged. Moreover, northeast, west and south regions, which had the lowest gender inequality in 1992 observed an increase in gender difference over time. Similarly, urban-rural inequality increased in the west region during 1992-2006.This study suggests periodic evaluation of the health care system is vital to assess the between and within group difference beyond average improvement. It is essential to integrate strong immunization systems with broad health systems and coordinate with other primary health care delivery programs to augment immunization coverage.

  3. Parapenaeus longirostris (Lucas, 1846) an early warning indicator species of global warming in the central Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colloca, Francesco; Mastrantonio, Gianluca; Lasinio, Giovanna Jona; Ligas, Alessandro; Sartor, Paolo

    2014-10-01

    The effect of temperature increase on the stock of the deep-sea pink shrimp (Parapenaeus longirostris) was analysed along the western coasts of Italy (North Tyrrhenian-Ligurian Sea: Geographical Sub-Area 9). This crustacean is currently one of the most important commercial species of the trawl fisheries in the Mediterranean Sea. Landings of the species in the North Tyrrhenian-Ligurian Sea have grown consistently during the last years following a rapid increase in the stock size. Since the deep-sea pink shrimp stock is exploited on the same fishing ground of other heavily overexploited stocks in a full mixed and poorly selective fishery, its condition seems to be largely independent of the current fishing exploitation pattern suggesting a positive role of climate change on the dynamic of the stock. To test this hypothesis we investigated the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) on density and distribution of P. longirostris by means of general additive models (GAMs). Two different models were developed for the whole stock and for the recruits (CL International bottom trawl survey in the Mediterranean) survey density indices (n km- 2) covering the period 1995-2010. Predictors included were geographical coordinates, quarterly averaged minimum SST, sampling depth and year. Spawners density was included as predictor into the GAM for recruits. The best GAM for the whole stock explained 67.1% of the total deviance, showing a clear increase in density in concomitance with the expansion of the stock northward. We found a significant positive effect of the min SST of all seasons, as expected considering that P. longirostris spawn all year round, with the highest influence played by summer min SST, either in the same or previous year. The best model for recruits explained 64.9% of the total deviance. Recruitment increased linearly with the density of spawners showing a positive temporal trend and an expansion northward. The observed trend in recruitment appeared

  4. Visualizing Glaciers and Sea Ice via Google Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballagh, L. M.; Fetterer, F.; Haran, T. M.; Pharris, K.

    2006-12-01

    The NOAA team at NSIDC manages over 60 distinct cryospheric and related data products. With an emphasis on data rescue and in situ data, these products hold value for both the scientific and non-scientific user communities. The overarching goal of this presentation is to promote products from two components of the cryosphere (glaciers and sea ice). Our Online Glacier Photograph Database contains approximately 3,000 photographs taken over many decades, exemplifying change in the glacier terminus over time. The sea ice product shows sea ice extent and concentration along with anomalies and trends. This Sea Ice Index product, which starts in 1979 and is updated monthly, provides visuals of the current state of sea ice in both hemispheres with trends and anomalies. The long time period covered by the data set means that many of the trends in ice extent and concentration shown in this product are statistically significant despite the large natural variability in sea ice. The minimum arctic sea ice extent has been a record low in September 2002 and 2005, contributing to an accelerated trend in sea ice reduction. With increasing world-wide interest in indicators of global climate change, and the upcoming International Polar Year, these data products are of interest to a broad audience. To further extend the impact of these data, we have made them viewable through Google Earth via the Keyhole Markup Language (KML). This presents an opportunity to branch out to a more diverse audience by using a new and innovative tool that allows spatial representation of data of significant scientific and educational interest.

  5. Statistical analysis of temperature data sampled at Station-M in the Norwegian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorentzen, Torbjørn

    2014-02-01

    The paper analyzes sea temperature data sampled at Station-M in the Norwegian Sea. The data cover the period 1948-2010. The following questions are addressed: What type of stochastic process characterizes the temperature series? Are there any changes or patterns which indicate climate change? Are there any characteristics in the data which can be linked to the shrinking sea-ice in the Arctic area? Can the series be modeled consistently and applied in forecasting of the future sea temperature? The paper applies the following methods: Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests for testing of unit-root and stationarity, ARIMA-models in univariate modeling, cointegration and error-correcting models are applied in estimating short- and long-term dynamics of non-stationary series, Granger-causality tests in analyzing the interaction pattern between the deep and upper layer temperatures, and simultaneous equation systems are applied in forecasting future temperature. The paper shows that temperature at 2000 m Granger-causes temperature at 150 m, and that the 2000 m series can represent an important information carrier of the long-term development of the sea temperature in the geographical area. Descriptive statistics shows that the temperature level has been on a positive trend since the beginning of the 1980s which is also measured in most of the oceans in the North Atlantic. The analysis shows that the temperature series are cointegrated which means they share the same long-term stochastic trend and they do not diverge too far from each other. The measured long-term temperature increase is one of the factors that can explain the shrinking summer sea-ice in the Arctic region. The analysis shows that there is a significant negative correlation between the shrinking sea ice and the sea temperature at Station-M. The paper shows that the temperature forecasts are conditioned on the properties of the stochastic processes, causality pattern between the variables and specification of model

  6. Capacity of Physiotherapy Workforce Production in Thailand: Public-Private Mix, Secular Trend and Geographic Distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaewsawang, Sarinee; Chongsuvivatwong, Virasakdi; Vongsirinavarat, Mantana

    2016-06-01

    In Thailand, the shortage of physiotherapists has been an increasing concern because of increased health burden from demographic and epidemiologic changes. This study aims to analyse the current situation of the physiotherapy workforce production system, secular trend, geographical distribution and comparison of public and private physiotherapy training institutes. Longitudinal data related to production capacity of the physiotherapy institutes were applied. Data from 2008 to 2012 were obtained from all 16 physiotherapy institutes in Thailand. Data during 2000-2007 were also retrieved from annual reports from the Ministry of Education. Descriptive statistics were initially used. Comparison was made between public and private physiotherapy institutes in terms of the number of students admitted and graduated, number of teachers, annual tuition fee, student-teacher ratio and dropout rate within 1 year. Predictive factors for graduation within 4 years were determined using logistic regression. In Thailand, there was an average of 800 physiotherapy graduates per year. New private institutes have been recently established and have steadily increased student admission rates. However, this has resulted in a high student-teacher ratio (median 7.1, inter-quartile range (IQR) 5.9-10.0). The first-year dropout rate in 2012 was 29.1%. Geographically, the majority of the institutes are clustered in the central region. Multivariate analysis revealed significantly lower probability of graduation within 4 years among students admitted to the private institutes and those in non-north-east region. The production capacity of the physiotherapy workforce is below an estimated need. Private physiotherapy institutes need more support to improve the situation of staff shortages and student graduation rates. The non-central regions should be encouraged to produce more physiotherapists. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. The Ross Sea Dipole – temperature, snow accumulation and sea ice variability in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica, over the past 2700 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. N. Bertler

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available High-resolution, well-dated climate archives provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamic interactions of climate patterns relevant for future projections. Here, we present data from a new, annually dated ice core record from the eastern Ross Sea, named the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE ice core. Comparison of this record with climate reanalysis data for the 1979–2012 interval shows that RICE reliably captures temperature and snow precipitation variability in the region. Trends over the past 2700 years in RICE are shown to be distinct from those in West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea captured by other ice cores. For most of this interval, the eastern Ross Sea was warming (or showing isotopic enrichment for other reasons, with increased snow accumulation and perhaps decreased sea ice concentration. However, West Antarctica cooled and the western Ross Sea showed no significant isotope temperature trend. This pattern here is referred to as the Ross Sea Dipole. Notably, during the Little Ice Age, West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea experienced colder than average temperatures, while the eastern Ross Sea underwent a period of warming or increased isotopic enrichment. From the 17th century onwards, this dipole relationship changed. All three regions show current warming, with snow accumulation declining in West Antarctica and the eastern Ross Sea but increasing in the western Ross Sea. We interpret this pattern as reflecting an increase in sea ice in the eastern Ross Sea with perhaps the establishment of a modern Roosevelt Island polynya as a local moisture source for RICE.

  8. Spatial and temporal trends of selected trace elements in liver tissue from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Alaska, Canada and Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Routti, H.; Letcher, R.J.; Born, E.W.; Branigan, M.; Dietz, R.; Evans, T.J.; Fisk, A.T.; Peacock, E.; Sonne, C.

    2011-01-01

    Spatial trends and comparative changes in time of selected trace elements were studied in liver tissue from polar bears from ten different subpopulation locations in Alaska, Canadian Arctic and East Greenland. For nine of the trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mn, Pb, Rb, Se and Zn) spatial trends were investigated in 136 specimens sampled during 2005-2008 from bears from these ten subpopulations. Concentrations of Hg, Se and As were highest in the (northern and southern) Beaufort Sea area and lowest in (western and southern) Hudson Bay area and Chukchi/Bering Sea. In contrast, concentrations of Cd showed an increasing trend from east to west. Minor or no spatial trends were observed for Cu, Mn, Rb and Zn. Spatial trends were in agreement with previous studies, possibly explained by natural phenomena. To assess temporal changes of Cd, Hg, Se and Zn concentrations during the last decades, we compared our results to previously published data. These time comparisons suggested recent Hg increase in East Greenland polar bears. This may be related to Hg emissions and/or climate-induced changes in Hg cycles or changes in the polar bear food web related to global warming. Also, Hg:Se molar ratio has increased in East Greenland polar bears, which suggests there may be an increased risk for Hg 2+-mediated toxicity. Since the underlying reasons for spatial trends or changes in time of trace elements in the Arctic are still largely unknown, future studies should focus on the role of changing climate and trace metal emissions on geographical and temporal trends of trace elements. ?? 2011 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

  9. Long-Term Trends and Variability in Spring Development of Calanus finmarchicus in the Southeastern Norwegian Sea during 1996-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupont, N.; Bagøien, E.; Melle, W.

    2016-02-01

    Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea in terms of biomass, playing a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This study analyses the long-term trend of a 17-year time series (1996-2012) on abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus in the Atlantic water-mass of the southern Norwegian Sea during spring. The long-term trend in spring abundance was assessed by using Generalised Additive Models, while simultaneously accounting for both general population development and inter-annual variation in population development throughout the study period. In one model, we focus on inter-annual changes in timing of the Calanus spring seasonal development by including Mean Stage Composition as a measure for state of population development. Following a short increase during the years 1996 to 2000, the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus decreased strongly until about the year 2010. For the two last years of the studied period, 2011-2012, increasing population abundances are suggested but with less certainty. The model results suggest that the analysis is capturing the G0 generation, displaying a peak for the adults in about mid-April. Inter-annual differences in spring seasonal development, with the peak of adults shifting towards earlier in the season as well as a shorter generation time are suggested. Considering the importance of Calanus finmarchicus as food for planktivorous predators in the Norwegian Sea, our time series analysis suggests relevant changes both with respect to the spring abundance and timing of this food source. The next step is to relate variation in the Calanus time series to environmental factors with special emphasis on climatic drivers.

  10. Enhanced MODIS Atmospheric Total Water Vapour Content Trends in Response to Arctic Amplification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dunya Alraddawi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to assess the strength of the water vapour feedback within Arctic climate change, 15 years of the total column-integrated density of water vapour (TCWV from the moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS are analysed. Arctic TCWV distribution, trends, and anomalies for the 2001–2015 period, broken down into seasons and months, are analysed. Enhanced local spring TCWV trends above the terrestrial Arctic regions are discussed in relation to land snow cover and vegetation changes. Upward TCWV trends above the oceanic areas are discussed in lien with sea ice extent and sea surface temperature changes. Increased winter TCWV (up to 40% south of the Svalbard archipelago are observed; these trends are probably driven by a local warming and sea ice extent decline. Similarly, the Barents/Kara regions underwent wet trends (up to 40%, also associated with winter/fall local sea ice loss. Positive late summer TCWV trends above the western Greenland and Beaufort seas (about 20% result from enhanced upper ocean warming and thereby a local coastal decline in ice extent. The Mackenzie and Siberia enhanced TCWV trends (about 25% during spring are found to be associated with coincident decreased snow cover and increased vegetation, as a result of the earlier melt onset. Results show drier summers in the Eurasia and western Alaska regions, thought to be affected by changes in albedo from changing vegetation. Other TCWV anomalies are also presented and discussed in relation to the dramatic decline in sea ice extent and the exceptional rise in sea surface temperature.

  11. The Chukchi Sea zoobenthos: contemporary conditions and trends in anthropogenic influence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirievskaya Dubrava

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The Chukchi Sea is a key region where rapid changes of the Arctic environment have been observed recently. Benthos of the Chukchi Sea is a sensitive indicator of these changes. In addition, the benthos can be used as an indicator of the anthropogenic load on the marine environment. A lot of researches have been conducted in the different parts of the Chukchi Sea. In this paper we summarized all the data collected for the last 30 years to evaluate contemporary conditions of the Chukchi Sea benthos as well as to discuss a potential response of the benthic ecosystem to the anthropogenic load. The Chukchi Sea zoobenthos is characterized by relatively high biodiversity compared to the seas of the western Arctic Ocean. The spatial distribution of zoobenthos is non-uniform. It is caused by a lot of factors: depth, bottom and sediment temperature, geochemical structure of the sediments, hydrodynamics, etc. Present environmental conditions of the Chukchi Sea biota can be considered to be close to the average long-term norms. By the reason of climate change scientists started to observe northing displacement of subarctic and temperate species of the benthic ecosystem. The Chukchi Sea is still included into the area with low anthropogenic pressure. The main potential threat for the Chukchi sea benthos results from continued oil and gas exploration and sea transport. For example, benthos around oil-wells (the Burger and the Klondike contains pollutants at a high concentration. The risk of rising anthropogenic load on the Chukchi Sea ecosystem poses the problem to additionally identify vulnerable areas of increased ecological significance for later receiving conservation status.

  12. Disentangling sea-surface temperature and anthropogenic aerosol influences on recent trends in South Asian monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, Nitin; Venkataraman, Chandra; Muduchuru, Kaushik; Ghosh, Subimal; Mondal, Arpita

    2018-05-01

    Recent studies point to combined effects of changes in regional land-use, anthropogenic aerosol forcing and sea surface temperature (SST) gradient on declining trends in the South Asian monsoon (SAM). This study attempted disentangling the effects produced by changes in SST gradient from those by aerosol levels in an atmospheric general circulation model. Two pairs of transient ensemble simulations were made, for a 40-year period from 1971 to 2010, with evolving versus climatological SSTs and with anthropogenic aerosol emissions fixed at 1971 versus 2010, in each case with evolution of the other forcing element, as well as GHGs. Evolving SST was linked to a widespread feedback on increased surface temperature, reduced land-sea thermal contrast and a weakened Hadley circulation, with weakening of cross-equatorial transport of moisture transport towards South Asia. Increases in anthropogenic aerosol levels (1971 versus 2010), led to an intensification of drying in the peninsular Indian region, through several regional pathways. Aerosol forcing induced north-south asymmetries in temperature and sea-level pressure response, and a cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal, leading to an easterly flow, which opposes the monsoon flow, suppressing moisture transport over peninsular India. Further, aerosol induced decreases in convection, vertically integrated moisture flux convergence, evaporation flux and cloud fraction, in the peninsular region, were spatially congruent with reduced convective and stratiform rainfall. Overall, evolution of SST acted through a weakening of cross-equatorial moisture flow, while increases in aerosol levels acted through suppression of Arabian Sea moisture transport, as well as, of convection and vertical moisture transport, to influence the suppression of SAM rainfall.

  13. Decline in HIV prevalence among young women in Zambia: national-level estimates of trends mask geographical and socio-demographic differences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nkomba Kayeyi

    Full Text Available A decline in HIV incidence has been reported in Zambia and a number of other sub-Saharan countries. The trend of HIV prevalence among young people is a good marker of HIV incidence. In this study, different data sources are used to examine geographical and sub-population group differentials in HIV prevalence trends among men and women aged 15-24 years in Zambia.We analysed ANC data for women aged 15-24 years from 22 sentinel sites consistently covered in the period 1994-2008, and HIV data for young men and women aged 15-24 years from the ZDHS 2001/2 and 2007. In addition, we systematically reviewed peer-reviewed articles that have reported findings on HIV prevalence and incidence among young people.Overall trends of the ANC surveillance data indicated a substantial HIV prevalence decline among young women in both urban and rural areas. However, provincial declines differed substantially, i.e. between 10% and 68% among urban women, and from stability to 86% among rural women. Prevalence declines were steeper among those with the highest educational attainments than among the least educated. The ZDHS data indicated a significant reduction in prevalence between the two survey rounds among young women only. Provincial-level ZDHS changes were difficult to assess because the sample sizes were small. ANC-based trend patterns were consistent with those observed in PMTCT-based data (2002-2006, whereas population-based surveys in a selected urban community (1995-2003 suggested that the ANC-based data underestimated the prevalence declines in the general populations of both young both men and women.The overall HIV prevalence declined substantially among young women in Zambia and this is interpreted as indicating a decline in HIV incidence. It is noteworthy that overall national trends masked substantial differences by place and by educational attainment, demonstrating critical limitations in the current focus on overall country-level trends in

  14. Geographical National Condition and Complex System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WANG Jiayao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The significance of studying the complex system of geographical national conditions lies in rationally expressing the complex relationships of the “resources-environment-ecology-economy-society” system. Aiming to the problems faced by the statistical analysis of geographical national conditions, including the disunity of research contents, the inconsistency of range, the uncertainty of goals, etc.the present paper conducted a range of discussions from the perspectives of concept, theory and method, and designed some solutions based on the complex system theory and coordination degree analysis methods.By analyzing the concepts of geographical national conditions, geographical national conditions survey and geographical national conditions statistical analysis, as well as investigating the relationships between theirs, the statistical contents and the analytical range of geographical national conditions are clarified and defined. This investigation also clarifies the goals of the statistical analysis by analyzing the basic characteristics of the geographical national conditions and the complex system, and the consistency between the analysis of the degree of coordination and statistical analyses. It outlines their goals, proposes a concept for the complex system of geographical national conditions, and it describes the concept. The complex system theory provides new theoretical guidance for the statistical analysis of geographical national conditions. The degree of coordination offers new approaches on how to undertake the analysis based on the measurement method and decision-making analysis scheme upon which the complex system of geographical national conditions is based. It analyzes the overall trend via the degree of coordination of the complex system on a macro level, and it determines the direction of remediation on a micro level based on the degree of coordination among various subsystems and of single systems. These results establish

  15. Sea level change along the Black Sea coast from satellite altimetry, tide gauge and GPS observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nevin B. Avsar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Sea level change affects human living conditions, particularly ocean coasts. However, sea level change is still unclear along the Black Sea coast due to lack of in-situ measurements and low resolution satellite data. In this paper, sea level change along the Black Sea coast is investigated from joint satellite altimetry, tide gauge (TG and Global Positioning System (GPS observations. The linear trend and seasonal components of sea level change are estimated at 8 TG stations (Amasra, Igneada, Trabzon-II, Sinop, Sile, Poti, Tuapse, and Batumi located along the Black Sea coast, which are compared with Satellite Altimetry and GPS. At the tide gauge stations with long-term records such as Poti (about 21 years and Tuapse (about 19 years, the results obtained from the satellite altimetry and tide gauge observations show a remarkably good agreement. While some big differences are existed between Satellite Altimetry and TG at other stations, after adding vertical motion from GPS, correlation coefficients of the trend have been greatly improved from 0.37 to 0.99 at 3 co-located GPS and TG stations (Trabzon-II, Sinop and Sile.

  16. Energy gradients and the geographic distribution of local ant diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaspari, Michael; Ward, Philip S; Yuan, May

    2004-08-01

    Geographical diversity gradients, even among local communities, can ultimately arise from geographical differences in speciation and extinction rates. We evaluated three models--energy-speciation, energy-abundance, and area--that predict how geographic trends in net diversification rates generate trends in diversity. We sampled 96 litter ant communities from four provinces: Australia, Madagascar, North America, and South America. The energy-speciation hypothesis best predicted ant species richness by accurately predicting the slope of the temperature diversity curve, and accounting for most of the variation in diversity. The communities showed a strong latitudinal gradient in species richness as well as inter-province differences in diversity. The former vanished in the temperature-diversity residuals, suggesting that the latitudinal gradient arises primarily from higher diversification rates in the tropics. However, inter-province differences in diversity persisted in those residuals--South American communities remained more diverse than those in North America and Australia even after the effects of temperature were removed.

  17. Who is using snus? - Time trends, socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in the ageing Swedish population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norberg Margareta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The prevalence of smoking in Sweden has decreased in recent decades, and is now among the lowest in the world. During the same period, the use of Swedish moist oral snuff, a smokeless tobacco called snus, has increased. Few studies have evaluated time trends of the socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in Sweden. This paper contributes to filling that gap. Methods This study utilized the Linnaeus Database, which links national registers with comprehensive individual data on socioeconomic status (SES to health data from a large ongoing health survey, the Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP. The VIP targets the entire middle-aged population of Västerbotten county at ages 40, 50 and 60 years with yearly cross-sectional surveys including self-reported data on tobacco habits. Time trends of snus use among 92,563 VIP-participants across different areas of residence and smoking groups were investigated graphically. Logistic regression was performed to estimate the associations between SES and geographical variables and current use versus non-use of snus. Results Overall, in parallel to decreasing smoking, the increasing trend of snus use in this middle-aged population continues, particularly in 40-year-olds. In both genders, the highest prevalence of snus use was observed among previous smokers. The prevalence of snus use also increased over time among smokers, and was consistently higher compared to those who had never smoked. Among males - both those who had never smoked and previous smokers - low education (OR 1.21, 95%CI 1.06-1.40 and OR 1.28, 95%CI 1.14-1.43, living alone (OR 1.16, 95%CI 1.07-1.27 and OR 1.13, 95%ci 1.04-1.23, low income and living in rural areas was associated with using snus, while this was not seen among male current smokers. Among women, living alone was associated with using snus irrespective of smoking habits. Among female smokers, the OR for snus use increased with higher

  18. Structural Uncertainty in Antarctic sea ice simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, D. P.

    2016-12-01

    The inability of the vast majority of historical climate model simulations to reproduce the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice has motivated many studies about the quality of the observational record, the role of natural variability versus forced changes, and the possibility of missing or inadequate forcings in the models (such as freshwater discharge from thinning ice shelves or an inadequate magnitude of stratospheric ozone depletion). In this presentation I will highlight another source of uncertainty that has received comparatively little attention: Structural uncertainty, that is, the systematic uncertainty in simulated sea ice trends that arises from model physics and mean-state biases. Using two large ensembles of experiments from the Community Earth System Model (CESM), I will show that the model is predisposed towards producing negative Antarctic sea ice trends during 1979-present, and that this outcome is not simply because the model's decadal variability is out-of-synch with that in nature. In the "Tropical Pacific Pacemaker" ensemble, in which observed tropical Pacific SST anomalies are prescribed, the model produces very realistic atmospheric circulation trends over the Southern Ocean, yet the sea ice trend is negative in every ensemble member. However, if the ensemble-mean trend (commonly interpreted as the forced response) is removed, some ensemble members show a sea ice increase that is very similar to the observed. While this results does confirm the important role of natural variability, it also suggests a strong bias in the forced response. I will discuss the reasons for this systematic bias and explore possible remedies. This an important problem to solve because projections of 21st -Century changes in the Antarctic climate system (including ice sheet surface mass balance changes and related changes in the sea level budget) have a strong dependence on the mean state of and changes in the Antarctic sea ice cover. This problem is not unique to

  19. The Red Sea: An Arena for Wind-Wave Modeling in Enclosed Seas

    KAUST Repository

    Langodan, Sabique

    2016-12-01

    Wind and waves play a major role in important ocean dynamical processes, such as the exchange of heat, momentum and gases between atmosphere and ocean, that greatly contributes to the earth climate and marine lives. Knowledge on wind and wave weather and climate is crucial for a wide range of applications, including oceanographic studies, maritime activities and ocean engineering. Despite being one of the important world shipping routes, the wind-wave characteristics in the Red Sea are yet to be fully explored. Because of the scarcity of waves data in the Red Sea, numerical models become crucial and provide very powerful tools to extrapolate wind and wave data in space, and backward and forward in time. Unlike open oceans, enclosed basins wave have different characteristics, mainly because of their local generation processes. The complex orography on both sides of the Red Sea makes the local wind, and consequently wave, modeling very challenging. This thesis considers the modeling of wind-wave characteristics in the Red Sea, including their climate variability and trends using state-of-the-art numerical models and all available observations. Different approaches are investigated to model and understand the general and unusual wind and wave conditions in the basin using standard global meteorological products and customised regional wind and wave models. After studying and identifying the main characteristics of the wind-wave variability in the Red Sea, we demonstrate the importance of generating accurate atmospheric forcing through data assimilation for reliable wave simulations. In particular, we show that the state-of-the-art physical formulation of wave models is not suitable to model the unique situation of the two opposing wind-waves systems in the Red Sea Convergence Zone, and propose and successfully test a modification to the input and white-capping source functions to address this problem. We further investigate the climate variability and trends of wind

  20. Marc Antrop - a revolutionary transdisciplinary scientist or a traditional geographer?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    practicians. Tree main problems have faced IALE since the very beginning: to ensure landscape science collaboration (1) between east and west, (2) between disciplines across the boundaries of nature science, social science and humanities, and (3) between academic disciplines and professionals...... for the enthusiastic radical way Marc is working in international networks and activities. He might have done it, just simply because he is a traditional geographer. With his heart beating for the regional geographic synthesis, despite all trends and fashions of many ‘geographers' trying to move this discipline...

  1. Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Singapore Strait

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung

    2013-04-01

    Sea level in Singapore Strait is governed by various scale phenomena, from global to local. Global signals are dominated by the climate change and multi-decadal variability and associated sea level rise; at regional scale seasonal sea level variability is caused by ENSO-modulated monsoons; locally, astronomic tides are the strongest force. Tide gauge records in Singapore Strait are analyzed to derive local sea level trend, and attempts are made to attribute observed sea level variability to phenomena at various scales, from global to local. It is found that at annual scale, sea level anomalies in Singapore Strait are quasi-periodic, of the order of ±15 cm, the highest during northeast monsoon and the lowest during southwest monsoon. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are related to La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ±9 cm. At multi-decadal scale, sea level in Singapore Strait has been rising at the rate 1.2-1.9 mm/year for the period 1975-2009, 2.0±0.3 mm/year for 1984-2009, and 1.3-4.7 mm/year for 1993-2009. When compared with the respective global trends of 2.0±0.3, 2.4, and 2.8±0.8 mm/year, Singapore Strait sea level rise trend was weaker at the earlier period and stronger at the recent decade.

  2. Why is the North Sea West of Us?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gammeltoft, Peder

    2016-01-01

    . Occurrences of sea names such as the North Sea are examined and analysed to see how they spread from an original one-language form to exist in multiple languages, and analyses them from a linguistic, geographic and nautical perspective. It is found that Seas or bodies of water in stretches of sea are named......This article focuses on the motivations behind sea-naming, by means of examples from Europe but also elsewhere. Why do certain sea names become dominant while others retract into local forms or simply die out? The article takes us back in time to the early days of map-making and, indeed, earlier...

  3. Linear and non-linear sea-level variations in the Adriatic Sea from tide gauge records (1872-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaia Galassi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available We have analyzed tide gauge data from the Adriatic Sea in order to assess the secular sea-level trend, its acceleration and the existence of possible cyclic variation. Analyzing the sea-level stack of all Adriatic tide gauges, we have obtained a trend of (1.25±0.04 mm yr-1, in agreement with that observed for the last century in the Mediterranean Sea, and an acceleration that is negligibile compared to the average global values. By means of the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique, we have evidenced an energetic oscillation with a period of ∼20 years that we relate with the recurrence of opposite phases in the Atlantic Multi–decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation indices. We suggest that anomalously high sea-level values observed at all the Adriatic tide gauges during 2010 and 2011 can be explained by the rising phase of this 20 years cycle.

  4. Long-Term Trends, Variability and Extremes of In Situ Sea Surface Temperature Measured Along the Eastern Adriatic Coast and its Relationship to Hemispheric Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grbec, Branka; Matić, Frano; Beg Paklar, Gordana; Morović, Mira; Popović, Ružica; Vilibić, Ivica

    2018-02-01

    This paper examines long-term series of in situ sea surface temperature (SST) data measured at nine coastal and one open sea stations along the eastern Adriatic Sea for the period 1959-2015. Monthly and yearly averages were used to document SST trends and variability, while clustering and connections to hemispheric indices were achieved by applying the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method. Both PCA and SOM revealed the dominance of temporal changes with respect to the effects of spatial differences in SST anomalies, indicating the prevalence of hemispheric processes over local dynamics, such as bora wind spatial inhomogeneity. SST extremes were connected with blocking atmospheric patterns. A substantial warming between 1979 and 2015, in total exceeding 1 °C, was preceded by a period with a negative SST trend, implying strong multidecadal variability in the Adriatic. The strongest connection was found between yearly SST and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, while North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic/West Russia (EAWR) patterns were found to also affect February SST values. Quantification of the Adriatic SST and their connection to hemispheric indices allow for more precise projections of future SST, considered to be rather important for Adriatic thermohaline circulation, biogeochemistry and fisheries, and sensitive to ongoing climate change.

  5. A multivariate analysis of Antarctic sea ice since 1979

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magalhaes Neto, Newton de; Evangelista, Heitor [Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (Uerj), LARAMG - Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais, Maracana, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Tanizaki-Fonseca, Kenny [Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (Uerj), LARAMG - Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais, Maracana, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Dept. Analise Geoambiental, Inst. de Geociencias, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil); Penello Meirelles, Margareth Simoes [Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)/Geomatica, Maracana, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Garcia, Carlos Eiras [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande (FURG), Laboratorio de Oceanografia Fisica, Rio Grande, RS (Brazil)

    2012-03-15

    Recent satellite observations have shown an increase in the total extent of Antarctic sea ice, during periods when the atmosphere and oceans tend to be warmer surrounding a significant part of the continent. Despite an increase in total sea ice, regional analyses depict negative trends in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea and positive trends in the Ross Sea. Although several climate parameters are believed to drive the formation of Antarctic sea ice and the local atmosphere, a descriptive mechanism that could trigger such differences in trends are still unknown. In this study we employed a multivariate analysis in order to identify the response of the Antarctic sea ice with respect to commonly utilized climate forcings/parameters, as follows: (1) The global air surface temperature, (2) The global sea surface temperature, (3) The atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration, (4) The South Annular Mode, (5) The Nino 3, (6) The Nino (3 + 4, 7) The Nino 4, (8) The Southern Oscillation Index, (9) The Multivariate ENSO Index, (10) the Total Solar Irradiance, (11) The maximum O{sub 3} depletion area, and (12) The minimum O{sub 3} concentration over Antarctica. Our results indicate that western Antarctic sea ice is simultaneously impacted by several parameters; and that the minimum, mean, and maximum sea ice extent may respond to a separate set of climatic/geochemical parameters. (orig.)

  6. Sea-ice evaluation of NEMO-Nordic 1.0: a NEMO-LIM3.6-based ocean-sea-ice model setup for the North Sea and Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pemberton, Per; Löptien, Ulrike; Hordoir, Robinson; Höglund, Anders; Schimanke, Semjon; Axell, Lars; Haapala, Jari

    2017-08-01

    The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice-covered marginal sea in northern Europe with intense wintertime ship traffic and a sensitive ecosystem. Understanding and modeling the evolution of the sea-ice pack is important for climate effect studies and forecasting purposes. Here we present and evaluate the sea-ice component of a new NEMO-LIM3.6-based ocean-sea-ice setup for the North Sea and Baltic Sea region (NEMO-Nordic). The setup includes a new depth-based fast-ice parametrization for the Baltic Sea. The evaluation focuses on long-term statistics, from a 45-year long hindcast, although short-term daily performance is also briefly evaluated. We show that NEMO-Nordic is well suited for simulating the mean sea-ice extent, concentration, and thickness as compared to the best available observational data set. The variability of the annual maximum Baltic Sea ice extent is well in line with the observations, but the 1961-2006 trend is underestimated. Capturing the correct ice thickness distribution is more challenging. Based on the simulated ice thickness distribution we estimate the undeformed and deformed ice thickness and concentration in the Baltic Sea, which compares reasonably well with observations.

  7. Variability and Anomalous Trends in the Global Sea Ice Cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino C.

    2012-01-01

    The advent of satellite data came fortuitously at a time when the global sea ice cover has been changing rapidly and new techniques are needed to accurately assess the true state and characteristics of the global sea ice cover. The extent of the sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere has been declining by about -4% per decade for the period 1979 to 2011 but for the period from 1996 to 2010, the rate of decline became even more negative at -8% per decade, indicating an acceleration in the decline. More intriguing is the drastically declining perennial sea ice area, which is the ice that survives the summer melt and observed to be retreating at the rate of -14% per decade during the 1979 to 2012 period. Although a slight recovery occurred in the last three years from an abrupt decline in 2007, the perennial ice extent was almost as low as in 2007 in 2011. The multiyear ice, which is the thick component of the perennial ice and regarded as the mainstay of the Arctic sea ice cover is declining at an even higher rate of -19% per decade. The more rapid decline of the extent of this thicker ice type means that the volume of the ice is also declining making the survival of the Arctic ice in summer highly questionable. The slight recovery in 2008, 2009 and 2010 for the perennial ice in summer was likely associated with an apparent cycle in the time series with a period of about 8 years. Results of analysis of concurrent MODIS and AMSR-E data in summer also provide some evidence of more extensive summer melt and meltponding in 2007 and 2011 than in other years. Meanwhile, the Antarctic sea ice cover, as observed by the same set of satellite data, is showing an unexpected and counter intuitive increase of about 1 % per decade over the same period. Although a strong decline in ice extent is apparent in the Bellingshausen/ Amundsen Seas region, such decline is more than compensated by increases in the extent of the sea ice cover in the Ross Sea region. The results of analysis of

  8. Temporal-spatial trends in heavy metal contents in sediment-derived soils along the Sea Scheldt river (Belgium)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vandecasteele, B.; Vos, B. de; Tack, F.M.G.

    2003-01-01

    The alluvial plain upstream in the Sea Scheldt was more affected by upland disposal of polluted sediments. - The aim of this study was to survey the alluvial plains of the Sea Scheldt river in Belgium for the presence of old sediment-derived soils, and to appraise the heavy metal contamination at these sites. Historically, sediments of periodical dredging operations have been disposed in the alluvial plain without concern for the potential presence of contaminants. Up to 96% of the areas that were affected by sediment disposal (ca. 120 ha) was found to be polluted by at least one of the metals Cd, Cr, Zn or Pb. Concentrations of Cd, Cr and Zn were, in 10% of the cases, higher than 14, 1400 and 2200 mg/kg DM, respectively. Based on the Flemish decree on soil sanitation, Cu and Ni concentrations were of less environmental concern on any site. The pollution in the Sea Scheldt alluvial plain nevertheless is lower than for the Upper Scheldt alluvial plain. The sediment-derived soils in the most upstream part near Ghent were used for disposal of sediments from dredging operations elsewhere. Metal concentrations were explored and both spatial and temporal trend were analysed. The pollution levels encountered warrant caution as most of the soils affected by historical dredged sediment disposal are currently in use for pasture

  9. Dramatic increase in sea otter mortality from white sharks in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, M. Tim; Hatfield, Brian B.; Harris, Michael D.; Ames, Jack A.

    2016-01-01

    Although southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) are not considered prey for white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias), sharks do nonetheless bite sea otters. We analyzed spatial and temporal trends in shark bites on sea otters in California, assessing the frequency of shark bite wounds in 1,870 carcasses collected since 1985. The proportion of stranded sea otters having shark bites has increased sharply since 2003, and white shark bites now account for >50% of recovered carcasses. The trend was most pronounced in the southern part of the range, from Estero Bay to Point Conception, where shark bite frequency has increased eightfold. Seasonal trends were also evident: most shark-bitten carcasses are recovered in late summer and fall; however, the period of elevated shark bite frequency has lengthened. The causes of these trends are unclear, but possible contributing factors include increased white shark abundance and/or changes in white shark behavior and distribution. In particular, the spatiotemporal patterns of shark-bitten sea otters match increases in pinniped populations, and the increased availability of marine mammal prey for white sharks may have led to more sharks spending more time in nearshore waters utilized by both sea otters and pinnipeds.

  10. Loss of sea ice in the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perovich, Donald K; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A

    2009-01-01

    The Arctic sea ice cover is in decline. The areal extent of the ice cover has been decreasing for the past few decades at an accelerating rate. Evidence also points to a decrease in sea ice thickness and a reduction in the amount of thicker perennial sea ice. A general global warming trend has made the ice cover more vulnerable to natural fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The observed reduction in Arctic sea ice is a consequence of both thermodynamic and dynamic processes, including such factors as preconditioning of the ice cover, overall warming trends, changes in cloud coverage, shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns, increased export of older ice out of the Arctic, advection of ocean heat from the Pacific and North Atlantic, enhanced solar heating of the ocean, and the ice-albedo feedback. The diminishing Arctic sea ice is creating social, political, economic, and ecological challenges.

  11. Updating temperature and salinity mean values and trends in the Western Mediterranean: The RADMED project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas-Yáñez, M.; García-Martínez, M. C.; Moya, F.; Balbín, R.; López-Jurado, J. L.; Serra, M.; Zunino, P.; Pascual, J.; Salat, J.

    2017-09-01

    The RADMED project is devoted to the implementation and maintenance of a multidisciplinary monitoring system around the Spanish Mediterranean waters. This observing system is based on periodic multidisciplinary cruises covering the coastal waters, continental shelf and slope waters and some deep stations (>2000 m) from the Westernmost Alboran Sea to Barcelona in the Catalan Sea, including the Balearic Islands. This project was launched in 2007 unifying and extending some previous monitoring projects which had a more reduced geographical coverage. Some of the time series currently available extend from 1992, while the more recent ones were initiated in 2007. The present work updates the available time series up to 2015 (included) and shows the capability of these time series for two main purposes: the calculation of mean values for the properties of main water masses around the Spanish Mediterranean, and the study of the interannual and decadal variability of such properties. The data set provided by the RADMED project has been merged with historical data from the MEDAR/MEDATLAS data base for the calculation of temperature and salinity trends from 1900 to 2015. The analysis of these time series shows that the intermediate and deep layers of the Western Mediterranean have increased their temperature and salinity with an acceleration of the warming and salting trends from 1943. Trends for the heat absorbed by the water column for the 1943-2015 period, range between 0.2 and 0.6 W/m2 depending on the used methodology. The temperature and salinity trends for the same period and for the intermediate layer are 0.002 °C/yr and 0.001 yr-1 respectively. Deep layers warmed and increased their salinity at a rate of 0.004 °C/yr and 0.001 yr-1.

  12. [Current progress in food geographical origin traceability by near infrared spectroscopy technology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Dong-Hong; Wang, Xi-Chang; Liu, Li-Ping; Liu, Yuan

    2011-04-01

    The geographical origin traceability of food, an important part of traceability system, is effective in protecting the quality and safety of foodstuffs. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIR), which is a powerful technique for geographical origin traceability, has attracted extensive attention by scientists due to its speediness, non-pollution and simple operation. This paper presents the advantages and disadvantages of techniques that have been used for food geographical origin traceability. The basic principles of NIR and its applications in different food geographical origin traceability are presented too. Furthermore, problems in applications are analyzed and the future development trends are discussed.

  13. Temporal Trends in Geographical Variation in Breast Cancer Mortality in China, 1973-2005: An Analysis of Nationwide Surveys on Cause of Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Changfa; Kahn, Clare; Wang, Jinfeng; Liao, Yilan; Chen, Wanqing; Yu, Xue Qin

    2016-09-28

    To describe geographical variation in breast cancer mortality over time, we analysed breast cancer mortality data from three retrospective national surveys on causes of death in recent decades in China. We first calculated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for each of the 31 provinces in mainland China stratified by survey period (1973-1975, 1990-1992 and 2004-2005). To test whether the geographical variation in breast cancer mortality changed over time, we then estimated the rate ratio (RR) for the aggregated data for seven regions and three economic zones using generalized linear models. Finally, we examined the correlation between mortality rate and several macro-economic measures at the provincial level. We found that the overall ASMR increased from 2.98 per 100,000 in 1973-1975 to 3.08 per 100,000 in 1990-1992, and to 3.85 per 100,000 in 2004-2005. Geographical variation in breast cancer mortality also increased significantly over time at the regional level ( p = 0.002) but not at the economic zone ( p = 0.089) level, with RR being generally lower for Western China (Northwest and Southwest) and higher in Northeast China over the three survey periods. These temporal and spatial trends in breast cancer mortality were found to be correlated with per capita gross domestic product, number of hospitals and health centres' beds per 10,000 population and number of practicing doctors per 10,000 population, and average number of live births for women aged 15-64. It may be necessary to target public health policies in China to address the widening geographic variation in breast cancer mortality, and to take steps to ensure that the ease of access and the quality of cancer care across the country is improved for all residents.

  14. [Analysis on the exposure level and geographic distribution trend of toxicological indicators in rural drinking water, Shandong Province, in 2015].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, F; Lyu, S P; Kong, F L; Yang, X T; Zhou, J Y

    2017-09-06

    Objective: To analyze the exposure level and the geographical distribution trend of toxicological indicators of rural drinking water in Shandong Province. Methods: The drawing method was used to randomly select no less than 60% villages and towns from 137 counties (cities, districts) of 17 cities in Shandong Province in 2015, and then 1-3 rural centralized water supply units were selected according to the circumstance of rural centralized water supply units in each village and town. In total, 735 villages and towns, 1 473 rural centralized water supply units were selected, and 1 473 water samples were collected. The water treatment process, water supply population and other circumstances of the rural centralized water supply units were investigated, the water quality was monitored, the content of toxicological indicators of drinking water in different areas was compared, and the trend surface isogram of excessive toxicological indicators was drawn. Results: The qualified rate of toxicological indicators in 1 473 water samples was 83.64% ( n =1 232). The main toxicological indicators that affected the qualified rate of toxicological indicators of drinking water in rural areas in Shandong Province were nitrate and fluoride. The excessive rate of fluoride was 5.70% ( n =84) and the exposed population was 1 736 709 (4.22%). The excessive rate of nitrate (as nitrogen) was 12.29% ( n =181) and the exposed population was 1 393 612 (3.39%). The P (5)0 content of fluoride in the eastern, middle and western regions was 0.24, 0.29 and 0.59 mg/L, respective;which was higher in the western region than in the east and the middle regions ( P 0.05). The P (50) content of nitrate (as nitrogen) in the eastern, middle and western regions was 8.00, 7.48, and 2.00 mg/L, which was higher in the eastern and middle regions than in the west region ( P 0.05). The trend surface isogram of nitrate and fluoride content showed that the content of nitrate (as nitrogen) in rural drinking water in

  15. Leveraging scientific credibility about Arctic sea ice trends in a polarized political environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Kathleen Hall; Hardy, Bruce W

    2014-09-16

    This work argues that, in a polarized environment, scientists can minimize the likelihood that the audience's biased processing will lead to rejection of their message if they not only eschew advocacy but also, convey that they are sharers of knowledge faithful to science's way of knowing and respectful of the audience's intelligence; the sources on which they rely are well-regarded by both conservatives and liberals; and the message explains how the scientist arrived at the offered conclusion, is conveyed in a visual form that involves the audience in drawing its own conclusions, and capsulizes key inferences in an illustrative analogy. A pilot experiment raises the possibility that such a leveraging-involving-visualizing-analogizing message structure can increase acceptance of the scientific claims about the downward cross-decade trend in Arctic sea ice extent and elicit inferences consistent with the scientific consensus on climate change among conservatives exposed to misleadingly selective data in a partisan news source.

  16. Adapting to sea-level rise in the US Southeast: The influence of built infrastructure and biophysical factors on the inundation of coastal areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels, R.C. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center]|[Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Gornitz, V.M. [National Aeronautics and Space Administration, New York, NY (United States). Goddard Inst. for Space Studies; Mehta, A.J.; Lee, Saychong [Florida Univ., Gainesville, FL (United States). Dept. of Coastal and Oceanographic Engineering; Cushman, R.M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1992-11-01

    The earth` s global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.5{degrees}C over the past 100 years. This warming trend has occurred concurrently with increases in the concentration and number of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These gases may cause this trend to accelerate in the future and result in a net increase in the earth`s global mean surface air temperature of 1.5 to 4.5{degrees}C by the year 2100. An increase of this magnitude could cause sea surface temperatures to increase would cause sea levels to rise -from thermal expansion of the sea, and the addition of melt waters from alpine glaciers and continental ice sheets. To allow for the cost-effective analysis of the impacts that sea-level rise may have on the US Southeast, a method is needed that will allow sites that are potentially at risk to be identified for study. Previously, no objective method was available to identify such sites. This project addresses this problem by using a geographic data base with information on both physical and climatological factors to identify coastal areas of the US Southeast that are at risk to inundation or accelerated erosion due to sea-level rise. The following six areas were selected for further study from the many identified as being at high risk: Galveston, Texas; Caminada Pass, Louisiana; Bradenton Beach, Florida; Daytona Beach, Florida; McClellanville, South Carolina; and Nags Head, North Carolina. For each study area the amount of land, by land use type, in danger from inundation from three sea-level-rise scenarios was calculated. The calculated values were based on elevation alone.

  17. Adapting to sea-level rise in the US Southeast: The influence of built infrastructure and biophysical factors on the inundation of coastal areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels, R. C. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Gornitz, V. M. [National Aeronautics and Space Administration, New York, NY (United States). Goddard Inst. for Space Studies; Mehta, A. J.; Lee, Saychong [Florida Univ., Gainesville, FL (United States). Dept. of Coastal and Oceanographic Engineering

    1992-11-01

    The earth' s global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.5°C over the past 100 years. This warming trend has occurred concurrently with increases in the concentration and number of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These gases may cause this trend to accelerate in the future and result in a net increase in the earth's global mean surface air temperature of 1.5 to 4.5°C by the year 2100. An increase of this magnitude could cause sea surface temperatures to increase would cause sea levels to rise -from thermal expansion of the sea, and the addition of melt waters from alpine glaciers and continental ice sheets. To allow for the cost-effective analysis of the impacts that sea-level rise may have on the US Southeast, a method is needed that will allow sites that are potentially at risk to be identified for study. Previously, no objective method was available to identify such sites. This project addresses this problem by using a geographic data base with information on both physical and climatological factors to identify coastal areas of the US Southeast that are at risk to inundation or accelerated erosion due to sea-level rise. The following six areas were selected for further study from the many identified as being at high risk: Galveston, Texas; Caminada Pass, Louisiana; Bradenton Beach, Florida; Daytona Beach, Florida; McClellanville, South Carolina; and Nags Head, North Carolina. For each study area the amount of land, by land use type, in danger from inundation from three sea-level-rise scenarios was calculated. The calculated values were based on elevation alone.

  18. The Baltic Sea Macro-Regional Transport Cluster as an Element of the Silk Road Economic Belt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nežerenko Olga

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the opportunities of the Chinese initiative “One Belt, One Road”, for the development of the Baltic Sea macro-region (BSR, as a single transport cluster. One of the objectives of the initiative is to strengthen transport linkages from the Pacific Ocean to the Baltic Sea Region. Thus, the contemporary macro-regional approach to the development of EU macro-regions can provide an additional impulse to the creation of formal macro-regional inter-cooperation, via in this case, the project that will advance the transport infrastructure of the region. This study examines the situation of the railway sector in the BSR in the period 2004–2015, through hierarchical cluster analysis, to identify countries with similar trends in cargo flow turnover. Taking into account the favorable geographical position of Poland, its transport performance and advanced (in comparison to other Baltic Sea region countries relations with China, it is concluded that Poland’s conditions are more suitable to promote economic integration with its closest neighbors – the Baltic countries-through the creation of formal macro-regional railway transport within the Rail Baltic project.

  19. Incidence Trends and Geographical Variability of Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease in Slovenia: A Nationwide Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urlep, Darja; Blagus, Rok; Orel, Rok

    2015-01-01

    The aims of the study were to determine the incidence rate of pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (PIBD) and its trends for the period of 2002-2010 and to assess the geographical distribution of PIBD in Slovenia. Medical records of patients (0-18 years) with newly diagnosed IBD during the study period were retrospectively reviewed. The mean incidence rate for IBD in 2002-2010 was 7.6 per 100,000 children and adolescents per year, 4.5 for Crohn's disease (CD), 2.9 for ulcerative colitis (UC), and 0.2 for IBD-unclassified, respectively. The incidence rate increased from 5.8 per 100,000 per year in 2002-2004 to 8.6 in 2005-2007 and remained stable afterwards. Statistically significant difference in the incidence rate between the Northeastern and Southwestern parts of the country was observed (p = 0.025). This nationwide study demonstrates that Slovenia is among the European countries with the highest PIBD incidence. During the study period a substantial rise of PIBD incidence was observed during the first half of the study and it seems to have stabilized in the second half. The significant difference in PIBD incidence between Northeastern and Southwestern parts of the country merits further exploration of the possible environmental factors.

  20. Monthly Variations in Sea Level at the Island of Zanzibar | Mahongo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Western Indian Ocean Journal of Marine Science ... Air pressure and rainfall remained relatively constant during the 20-year study period, but there were trends in sea level, northeast winds, southeast winds and air temperature. Monthly ... The trend in sea level (9%) appeared to be mainly correlated with northeast winds.

  1. Variability and change of sea level and its components in the Indo-Pacific region during the altimetry era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Quran; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Hu, Jianyu

    2017-03-01

    Previous studies have shown that regional sea level exhibits interannual and decadal variations associated with the modes of climate variability. A better understanding of those low-frequency sea level variations benefits the detection and attribution of climate change signals. Nonetheless, the contributions of thermosteric, halosteric, and mass sea level components to sea level variability and trend patterns remain unclear. By focusing on signals associated with dominant climate modes in the Indo-Pacific region, we estimate the interannual and decadal fingerprints and trend of each sea level component utilizing a multivariate linear regression of two adjoint-based ocean reanalyses. Sea level interannual, decadal, and trend patterns primarily come from thermosteric sea level (TSSL). Halosteric sea level (HSSL) is of regional importance in the Pacific Ocean on decadal time scale and dominates sea level trends in the northeast subtropical Pacific. The compensation between TSSL and HSSL is identified in their decadal variability and trends. The interannual and decadal variability of temperature generally peak at subsurface around 100 m but that of salinity tend to be surface-intensified. Decadal temperature and salinity signals extend deeper into the ocean in some regions than their interannual equivalents. Mass sea level (MassSL) is critical for the interannual and decadal variability of sea level over shelf seas. Inconsistencies exist in MassSL trend patterns among various estimates. This study highlights regions where multiple processes work together to control sea level variability and change. Further work is required to better understand the interaction of different processes in those regions.

  2. Geographical distribution of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Norwegian and Russian Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lie, E.; Bernhoft, A.; Riget, F.; Belikov, Stanislav; Boltunov, Andrei N.; Derocher, A.E.; Garner, G.W.; Wiig, O.; Skaare, J.U.

    2003-01-01

    Geographical variation of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) was studied in blood samples from 90 adult female polar bear (Ursus maritimus) from Svalbard, Franz Josef Land, Kara Sea, East-Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea. In all regions, oxychlordane was the dominant OCP. Regional differences in mean levels of HCB, oxychlordane, trans-nonachlor, ??-HCH, ??-HCH and p,p???-DDE were found. The highest levels of oxychlordane, trans-nonachlor and DDE were found in polar bears from Franz Josef Land and Kara Sea. HCB level was lowest in polar bears from Svalbard. Polar bears from Chukchi Sea had the highest level of ??- and ??-HCH. The lowest ??-HCH concentration was found in bears from Kara Sea. In all the bears, ???HCHs was dominated by ??-HCH. The geographical variation in OCP levels and pattern may suggest regional differences in pollution sources and different feeding habits in the different regions. Polar bears from the Western Russian Arctic were exposed to higher levels of chlordanes and p,p???-DDE than polar bears from locations westwards and eastwards from this region. This may imply the presence of a significant pollution source in the Russian Arctic area. The study suggests that the western Russian Arctic is the most contaminated region of the Arctic and warrants further research. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. The Geographic Climate Information System Project (GEOCLIMA): Overview and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Melas, D.; Vaitis, M.; Anadranistakis, E.; Symeonidis, P.; Pantelopoulos, S.

    2012-04-01

    The project GEOCLIMA aims at developing an integrated Geographic Information System (GIS) allowing the user to manage, analyze and visualize the information which is directly or indirectly related to climate and its future projections in Greece. The main components of the project are: a) collection and homogenization of climate and environmental related information, b) estimation of future climate change based on existing regional climate model (RCM) simulations as well as a supplementary high resolution (10 km x 10 km) simulation over the period 1961-2100 using RegCM3, c) compilation of an integrated uniform geographic database, and d) mapping of climate data, creation of digital thematic maps, and development of the integrated web GIS application. This paper provides an overview of the ongoing research efforts and preliminary results of the project. First, the trends in the annual and seasonal time series of precipitation and air temperature observations for all available stations in Greece are assessed. Then the set-up of the high resolution RCM simulation (10 km x 10 km) is discussed with respect to the selected convective scheme. Finally, the relationship of climatic variables with geophysical features over Greece such as altitude, location, distance from the sea, slope, aspect, distance from climatic barriers, land cover etc) is investigated, to support climate mapping. The research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009.

  4. Sea conditions off Tokai-mura

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukuda, Masaaki

    1975-01-01

    The result of investigation on the conditions of oceanic diffusion off Tokai-mura is presented. The diffusion phenomena are very complicated. The turbulent diffusion was analyzed by statistical method used with the data of sea current. The meteorological conditions, geographical feature and sea conditions effect considerably in oceanic diffusion in coastal area. By separating into short range and long range, the dye diffusion experiment and the river water diffusion were analyzed with several diffusion models. The author also describes on the behavior of nuclides connected with the deposition. (auth.)

  5. Exploitation of geographic information system at mapping and modelling of selected soil parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palka, B.; Makovnikova, J.; Siran, M.

    2005-01-01

    In this presentation authors describe using of computers and geographic information systems (GIS) at effective use of soil fund, rational exploitation and organization of agricultural soil fund on the territory of the Slovak Republic, its monitoring and modelling. Using and creating of some geographically oriented information systems and databases about soils as well as present trends are discussed

  6. Temporal Trends in Geographical Variation in Breast Cancer Mortality in China, 1973–2005: An Analysis of Nationwide Surveys on Cause of Death

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changfa Xia

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available To describe geographical variation in breast cancer mortality over time, we analysed breast cancer mortality data from three retrospective national surveys on causes of death in recent decades in China. We first calculated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR for each of the 31 provinces in mainland China stratified by survey period (1973–1975, 1990–1992 and 2004–2005. To test whether the geographical variation in breast cancer mortality changed over time, we then estimated the rate ratio (RR for the aggregated data for seven regions and three economic zones using generalized linear models. Finally, we examined the correlation between mortality rate and several macro-economic measures at the provincial level. We found that the overall ASMR increased from 2.98 per 100,000 in 1973–1975 to 3.08 per 100,000 in 1990–1992, and to 3.85 per 100,000 in 2004–2005. Geographical variation in breast cancer mortality also increased significantly over time at the regional level (p = 0.002 but not at the economic zone (p = 0.089 level, with RR being generally lower for Western China (Northwest and Southwest and higher in Northeast China over the three survey periods. These temporal and spatial trends in breast cancer mortality were found to be correlated with per capita gross domestic product, number of hospitals and health centres’ beds per 10,000 population and number of practicing doctors per 10,000 population, and average number of live births for women aged 15–64. It may be necessary to target public health policies in China to address the widening geographic variation in breast cancer mortality, and to take steps to ensure that the ease of access and the quality of cancer care across the country is improved for all residents.

  7. Temporal Trends in Geographical Variation in Breast Cancer Mortality in China, 1973–2005: An Analysis of Nationwide Surveys on Cause of Death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Changfa; Kahn, Clare; Wang, Jinfeng; Liao, Yilan; Chen, Wanqing; Yu, Xue Qin

    2016-01-01

    To describe geographical variation in breast cancer mortality over time, we analysed breast cancer mortality data from three retrospective national surveys on causes of death in recent decades in China. We first calculated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for each of the 31 provinces in mainland China stratified by survey period (1973–1975, 1990–1992 and 2004–2005). To test whether the geographical variation in breast cancer mortality changed over time, we then estimated the rate ratio (RR) for the aggregated data for seven regions and three economic zones using generalized linear models. Finally, we examined the correlation between mortality rate and several macro-economic measures at the provincial level. We found that the overall ASMR increased from 2.98 per 100,000 in 1973–1975 to 3.08 per 100,000 in 1990–1992, and to 3.85 per 100,000 in 2004–2005. Geographical variation in breast cancer mortality also increased significantly over time at the regional level (p = 0.002) but not at the economic zone (p = 0.089) level, with RR being generally lower for Western China (Northwest and Southwest) and higher in Northeast China over the three survey periods. These temporal and spatial trends in breast cancer mortality were found to be correlated with per capita gross domestic product, number of hospitals and health centres’ beds per 10,000 population and number of practicing doctors per 10,000 population, and average number of live births for women aged 15–64. It may be necessary to target public health policies in China to address the widening geographic variation in breast cancer mortality, and to take steps to ensure that the ease of access and the quality of cancer care across the country is improved for all residents. PMID:27690073

  8. Trends and geographic inequalities in the prevalence of Down syndrome in Europe, 1980-1999.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolk, H; Loane, M; Garne, E; De Walle, H; Queisser-Luft, A; De Vigan, C; Addor, M C; Gener, B; Haeusler, M; Jordan, H; Tucker, D; Stoll, C; Feijoo, M; Lillis, D; Bianchi, F

    2005-11-01

    EUROCAT is a network of population-based registries for the epidemiologic surveillance of congenital anomalies covering approximately one quarter of births in the European Union. Down syndrome constitutes approximately 8% of cases of registered congenital anomaly in Europe, with over 7000 affected pregnancies in the 15 current member states of the European Union each year. In this paper, we aim to examine trends in the live birth prevalence of Down syndrome in Europe in the light of trends in maternal age and in prenatal diagnosis. Descriptive analysis of data from 24 EUROCAT registries, covering 8.3 million births 1980-99. Cases include live births, stillbirths and terminations of pregnancy following prenatal diagnosis. Since 1980, the proportion of births to mothers of 35 years of age and over has risen quite dramatically from 8 to 14% for the European Union as a whole, with steeper rises in some regions. By 1995-1999, the proportion of "older" mothers varied between regions from 10% to 25%, and the total prevalence (including terminations of pregnancy) of Down syndrome varied from 1 to 3 per 1000 births. Some European regions have shown a more than twofold increase in total prevalence of Down syndrome since 1980. The proportion of cases of Down syndrome which were prenatally diagnosed followed by termination of pregnancy in 1995-1999 varied from 0% in the three regions of Ireland and Malta where termination of pregnancy is illegal, to less than 50% in 14 further regions, to 77% in Paris. The extent to which terminations of pregnancy were concen trated among older mothers varied between regions. The live birth prevalence has since 1980 increasingly diverged from the rising total prevalence, in some areas remaining approximately stable, in others decreasing over time. The rise in average maternal age in Europe has brought with it an increase in the number of pregnancies affected by Down syndrome. The widespread practice of prenatal screening and termination of

  9. Inter-annual sea level variability in the southern South China Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

    (SCS) is one of the western marginal seas of the Pacific Ocean, surrounded by South China, Indo China Peninsula, Malaysian Peninsula, Philippines and Borneo Island. The SCS is a semi- enclosed basin connected to the western Pacific Ocean through Taiwan.... Sea level trend and variability in the Singapore Strait. Ocean Science, 9(2). Torrence, C. and Compo, G.P., 1998. A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79(1): 61-78. Vargas‐Hernandez, J.M., Wijffels...

  10. Sea level rise at Honolulu and Hilo, Hawaii: GPS estimates of differential land motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caccamise, Dana J.; Merrifield, Mark A.; Bevis, Michael; Foster, James; Firing, Yvonne L.; Schenewerk, Mark S.; Taylor, Frederick W.; Thomas, Donald A.

    2005-02-01

    Since 1946, sea level at Hilo on the Big Island of Hawaii has risen an average of 1.8 +/- 0.4 mm/yr faster than at Honolulu on the island of Oahu. This difference has been attributed to subsidence of the Big Island. However, GPS measurements indicate that Hilo is sinking relative to Honolulu at a rate of -0.4 +/- 0.5 mm/yr, which is too small to account for the difference in sea level trends. In the past 30 years, there has been a statistically significant reduction in the relative sea level trend. While it is possible that the rates of land motion have changed over this time period, the available hydrographic data suggest that interdecadal variations in upper ocean temperature account for much of the differential sea level signal between the two stations, including the recent trend change. These results highlight the challenges involved in estimating secular sea level trends in the presence of significant low frequency variability.

  11. Sea level trend and variability in the Singapore Strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Tkalich, P.; Vethamony, P.; Luu, Q.-H.; Babu, M.T.

    www.ocean-sci.net/9/293/2013/ doi:10.5194/os-9-293-2013 © Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License. EGU Journal Logos (RGB) Advances in Geosciences O pen A ccess Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences O pen A ccess Annales Geophysicae O pen A... Sci., 9, 293–300, 2013 www.ocean-sci.net/9/293/2013/ P. Tkalich et al.: Sea level in Singapore Strait 295 likely to be the cause for modulating the inter-annual sea level variability associated with ENSO. On the Sunda Shelf and particularly in SS, our...

  12. The levels of radionuclides and heavy metals in Black Sea ecosystems (Bulgaria)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strezov, A.; Nonova, Tz.

    2006-01-01

    In order to evaluate the influence of geographically varying marine ecosystem properties on the uptake of radionuclides and toxic metals in marine environment, samples of sand, slime and silt sediments were taken during the period 1991-2004. Samples were collected from different zones along the Bulgarian Black Sea coast - from the north Romanian border (Durankulak) to the South Turkish border (Rezovo). Technogenic and natural radionuclides were measured by Low-level Gamma Spectroscopy using HPGe detector with 35 % counting efficiency and energy resolution 1.8 KeV (1332 KeV). Heavy metals (HM) were measured by Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (AAS) - ETAAS (Perkin - Elmer Zeeman 3030 with graphite furnace) and flame AAS - Pye Unicam SP 1950. The measured radionuclides concentrations in Black Sea sediments were found to depend on sediment type - slime sediments accumulate technogenic ( 1 37Cs) and natural nuclides (U and Th series) to the highest extent. Considerably low levels of technogenic and natural radionuclides and a narrow concentration intervals were established for sand and silt sediment samples. The intercomparison of radionuclide and HM content in bottom sediments from one and the same sampling location gives information for mechanisms of radionuclide transfer and shows the trend of potential hazard of anthropogenic impact on marine ecosystems. The obtained data show that highest nuclide and heavy metal content in Black Sea sediments were determined in the northern part of the Black Sea coast. It can be attributed to the influence of the big rivers entering the northern part of the Black Sea - Danube, Dnyepr, Dnester. Data for radionuclides and heavy metals in sediments are in the limits of the cited in literature natural levels, showing no additional anthropogenic contamination

  13. Recent Trends in Global Ocean Chlorophyll

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson; Casey, Nancy

    2004-01-01

    Recent analyses of SeaWiFS data have shown that global ocean chlorophyll has increased more than 5% since 1998. The North Pacific ocean basin has increased nearly 19%. To understand the causes of these trends we have applied the newly developed NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Assimilation Model (OBAM), which is driven in mechanistic fashion by surface winds, sea surface temperature, atmospheric iron deposition, sea ice, and surface irradiance. The mode1 utilizes chlorophyll from SeaWiFS in a daily assimilation. The model has in place many of the climatic variables that can be expected to produce the changes observed in SeaWiFS data. Ths enables us to diagnose the model performance, the assimilation performance, and possible causes for the increase in chlorophyll.

  14. Sea Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perovich, D.; Gerland, S.; Hendricks, S.; Meier, Walter N.; Nicolaus, M.; Richter-Menge, J.; Tschudi, M.

    2013-01-01

    During 2013, Arctic sea ice extent remained well below normal, but the September 2013 minimum extent was substantially higher than the record-breaking minimum in 2012. Nonetheless, the minimum was still much lower than normal and the long-term trend Arctic September extent is -13.7 per decade relative to the 1981-2010 average. The less extreme conditions this year compared to 2012 were due to cooler temperatures and wind patterns that favored retention of ice through the summer. Sea ice thickness and volume remained near record-low levels, though indications are of slightly thicker ice compared to the record low of 2012.

  15. The disposal of low-level radioactive waste into the sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saruhashi, Katsuko

    1979-01-01

    Disposal of low-level radioactive wastes is made both on land and in sea. Though the land disposal has been already carried out in the U.S.A. and the U.S.S.R., it is impossible in the narrow land of Japan. In the United States, the wastes solidified with cement in drums were previously abandoned in deep seas of the Pacific and the Atlantic. This is no longer done presently; instead, the land disposal is employed due to its lower costs. In European countries, the sea disposal is performed under OECDNEA, trial disposal in 1961 and full-scale disposal since 1967, in the Atlantic. Meanwhile, in Japan, test sea disposal will be carried out in the near future in deep sea of the northern Pacific, the important sea area for fisheries. The international trends of the deep sea disposal of low-level wastes and the correspondent trends of the same in Japan, in the past years are described. (J.P.N.)

  16. Phytoplankton of the North Sea and its dynamics: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, P. C.; Lancelot, C.; Gieskes, W. W. C.; Hagmeier, E.; Weichart, G.

    Phytoplankton is the major contributor to algal biomass and primary production of the North Sea, although crops of macroalgae can locally be up to 2000 g C.m -2 along the coast of the U.K. and Norway, and microphytobenthos dominates production in the shallow tidal flat areas bordering the coasts of England, the Netherlands, Germany and Denmark. Data collected since 1932 during the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey show consistent patterns of geographical, seasonal and annual variation in the distribution of phytoplankton and its major taxonomic components. There is a trend of increased colouration in Recorder silks in the southern North Sea until approximately 1975 since when Colour levels (assumed to be indicative of algal biomass) have declined. In the eutrophic Dutch Wadden Sea the algal crop continued to increase; in Dutch coastal North Sea waters a trend of biomass increase reversed since 1984, apparently due to a reduction in Rhine river outflow. Long-term observations made at Helgoland since the 60's also show trends of increasing nutrients and phytoplankton biomass only to 1984. Adverse effects such as deoxygenation, foam formation and toxin production have been linked to mass concentrations of algae known as blooms. There is no evidence from existing reports for an increase in their frequency, although some years stand out with larger numbers. Occurrence of blooms can partly be explained by hydrographic conditions. More than 30 taxa are recognised as occurring in bloom proportions in the North Sea, approximately one third of which can be toxic. The crop of Bacillariophyceae (diatoms) is not likely to increase with eutrophication due to silicate limitation. An extensive subsurface maximum of armoured dinoflagellates, its abundance gouverned by hydrographic conditions, is the most characteristic feature of the central and northern North Sea in the summer months. Abundance, sometimes dominance, of picoplankton and of species that are not readily detected by

  17. Thermal biology of sea snakes and sea kraits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heatwole, Harold; Grech, Alana; Monahan, John F; King, Susan; Marsh, Helene

    2012-08-01

    Temperature probably had no direct effect on the evolution of sea kraits within their center of origin, a geologically stable thermal zone straddling the equator, but may have indirectly affected expansions and contractions in distributions beyond that zone through global fluctuations that caused alternation of higher and lower sea levels. The northern limit of the Laticauda colubrina complex seems to be the 20°C isotherm; in the south, the range does not reach that isotherm because there is no land (also a habitat requirement of sea kraits) within the zone of suitable temperature. The relationship of temperature to the pattern of geographic variation in morphology supports either the hypothesis of peripheral convergence or the developmental hypothesis but does not distinguish between them. Quadratic surfaces relating cumulative scores for coloration and morphological characters to global position showed a strong latitudinal component and an even stronger longitudinal one in which the direction of the latitudinal effect was reversed between east and west. A multivariate analysis revealed that while morphological characters vary significantly by location and climate when tested separately, when the influence of location on morphology is taken into account, no residual relationship between climate and morphology remains. Most marine snakes have mean upper temperature tolerances between 39°C and 40°C and operate at temperatures much nearer their upper thermal limits than their lower limits but still avoid deleterious extremes by diving from excessively hot water to deeper, cooler strata, and by surfacing when water is cold. At the surface in still water in sunlight, Pelamis can maintain its body temperature slightly above that of the water, but whether this is significant in nature is questionable. As temperature falls below 18-20°C, survival time is progressively reduced, accompanied by the successive occurrence of cessation of feeding, cessation of swimming, and

  18. ICESat Observations of Seasonal and Interannual Variations of Sea-Ice Freeboard and Estimated Thickness in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica (2003-2009)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Donghui; Robbins, John W.

    2010-01-01

    Sea-ice freeboard heights for 17 ICESat campaign periods from 2003 to 2009 are derived from ICESat data. Freeboard is combined with snow depth from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) data and nominal densities of snow, water and sea ice, to estimate sea-ice thickness. Sea-ice freeboard and thickness distributions show clear seasonal variations that reflect the yearly cycle of growth and decay of the Weddell Sea (Antarctica) pack ice. During October-November, sea ice grows to its seasonal maximum both in area and thickness; the mean freeboards are 0.33-0.41 m and the mean thicknesses are 2.10-2.59 m. During February-March, thinner sea ice melts away and the sea-ice pack is mainly distributed in the west Weddell Sea; the mean freeboards are 0.35-0.46 m and the mean thicknesses are 1.48-1.94 m. During May-June, the mean freeboards and thicknesses are 0.26-0.29 m and 1.32-1.37 m, respectively. The 6 year trends in sea-ice extent and volume are (0.023+/-0.051) x 10(exp 6)sq km/a (0.45%/a) and (0.007+/-1.0.092) x 10(exp 3)cu km/a (0.08%/a); however, the large standard deviations indicate that these positive trends are not statistically significant.

  19. Global warming: Sea ice and snow cover

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, J.E.

    1993-01-01

    In spite of differences among global climate simulations under scenarios where atmospheric CO 2 is doubled, all models indicate at least some amplification of greenouse warming at the polar regions. Several decades of recent data on air temperature, sea ice, and snow cover of the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are summarized to illustrate the general compatibility of recent variations in those parameters. Despite a data void over the Arctic Ocean, some noteworthy patterns emerge. Warming dominates in winter and spring, as projected by global climate models, with the warming strongest over subpolar land areas of Alaska, northwestern Canada, and northern Eurasia. A time-longitude summary of Arctic sea ice variations indicates that timescales of most anomalies range from several months to several years. Wintertime maxima of total sea ice extent contain no apparent secular trends. The statistical significance of trends in recent sea ice variations was evaluated by a Monte Carlo procedure, showing a statistically significant negative trend in the summer. Snow cover data over the 20-y period of record show a noticeable decrease of Arctic snow cover in the late 1980s. This is of potential climatic significance since the accompanying decrease of surface albedo leads to a rapid increase of solar heating. 21 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  20. Noiseonomics: the relationship between ambient noise levels in the sea and global economic trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frisk, George V

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, the topic of noise in the sea and its effects on marine mammals has attracted considerable attention from both the scientific community and the general public. Since marine mammals rely heavily on acoustics as a primary means of communicating, navigating, and foraging in the ocean, any change in their acoustic environment may have an impact on their behavior. Specifically, a growing body of literature suggests that low-frequency, ambient noise levels in the open ocean increased approximately 3.3 dB per decade during the period 1950-2007. Here we show that this increase can be attributed primarily to commercial shipping activity, which in turn, can be linked to global economic growth. As a corollary, we conclude that ambient noise levels can be directly related to global economic conditions. We provide experimental evidence supporting this theory and discuss its implications for predicting future noise levels based on global economic trends.

  1. The geography of urban agriculture: New trends and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duží Barbora

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In the article, which is a theoretical and conceptual introduction for the Special Issue of Moravian Geographical Reports on ‘New trends and challenges of urban agriculture in the context of Europe’, the authors resume and review diverging issues of urban agriculture, exploring and discussing them from a geographical perspective and in a wider context of the transformation of urban and rural spaces, urban regeneration and renewal, agricultural restructuring, multifunctionality, ecosystem services, land-use conflicts and social responsibility. After the introduction that depicts a changing role of agriculture in the context of urban and rural transformations, the current research on urban agriculture in Europe is summarised and reviewed. Then the main trends and concepts of growing and expanding urban agriculture are presented and discussed with a special emphasis on the challenges these pose to geographers.

  2. Inland sea as a unit for environmental history: East Asian inland seas from prehistory to future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindstrom, Kati; Uchiyama, Junzo

    2012-04-01

    The boundaries of landscape policies often coincide with political or economic boundaries, thus creating a situation where a unit of landscape protection or management reflects more its present political status than its historico-geographical situation, its historical function and formation. At the same time, it is evident that no unit can exist independently of the context that has given birth to it and that environmental protection in isolated units cannot be very effective. The present paper will discuss inland sea as a landscape unit from prehistory to modern days and its implications for future landscape planning, using EastAsian inland sea (Japan Sea and East China Sea) rim as an example. Historically an area of active communication, EastAsian inland sea rim has become a politically very sharply divided area. The authors will bring examples to demonstrate how cultural communication on the inland sea level has influenced the formation of several landscape features that are now targets for local or national landscape protection programs, and how a unified view could benefit the future of landscape policies in the whole region.

  3. Observation-Driven Estimation of the Spatial Variability of 20th Century Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlington, B. D.; Burgos, A.; Thompson, P. R.; Landerer, F. W.; Piecuch, C. G.; Adhikari, S.; Caron, L.; Reager, J. T.; Ivins, E. R.

    2018-03-01

    Over the past two decades, sea level measurements made by satellites have given clear indications of both global and regional sea level rise. Numerous studies have sought to leverage the modern satellite record and available historic sea level data provided by tide gauges to estimate past sea level rise, leading to several estimates for the 20th century trend in global mean sea level in the range between 1 and 2 mm/yr. On regional scales, few attempts have been made to estimate trends over the same time period. This is due largely to the inhomogeneity and quality of the tide gauge network through the 20th century, which render commonly used reconstruction techniques inadequate. Here, a new approach is adopted, integrating data from a select set of tide gauges with prior estimates of spatial structure based on historical sea level forcing information from the major contributing processes over the past century. The resulting map of 20th century regional sea level rise is optimized to agree with the tide gauge-measured trends, and provides an indication of the likely contributions of different sources to regional patterns. Of equal importance, this study demonstrates the sensitivities of this regional trend map to current knowledge and uncertainty of the contributing processes.

  4. Ross sea ice motion, area flux, and deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    kwok, Ron

    2005-01-01

    The sea ice motion, area export, and deformation of the Ross Sea ice cover are examined with satellite passive microwave and RADARSAT observations. The record of high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, from 1998 and 2000, allows the estimation of the variability of ice deformation at the small scale (10 km) and to assess the quality of the longer record of passive microwave ice motion. Daily and subdaily deformation fields and RADARSAT imagery highlight the variability of motion and deformation in the Ross Sea. With the passive microwave ice motion, the area export at a flux gate positioned between Cape Adare and Land Bay is estimated. Between 1992 and 2003, a positive trend can be seen in the winter (March-November) ice area flux that has a mean of 990 x 103 km2 and ranges from a low of 600 x 103 km2 in 1992 to a peak of 1600 x 103 km2 in 2001. In the mean, the southern Ross Sea produces almost twice its own area of sea ice during the winter. Cross-gate sea level pressure (SLP) gradients explain 60% of the variance in the ice area flux. A positive trend in this gradient, from reanalysis products, suggests a 'spinup' of the Ross Sea Gyre over the past 12 yr. In both the NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 surface pressure fields, longer-term trends in this gradient and mean SLP between 1979 and 2002 are explored along with positive anomalies in the monthly cross-gate SLP gradient associated with the positive phase of the Southern Hemisphere annular mode and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation.

  5. Biodiversity of culturable heterotrophic bacteria in the Southern Adriatic Sea Italian coastal waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loredana Stabili

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available The qualitative and quantitative composition of culturable heterotrophic bacteria in water samples from the Southern Adriatic Sea of Italy was examined. Water samples were collected monthly, for a year, at 16 stations along the coast line between Brindisi and Santa Maria di Leuca. The results obtained described the heterotrophic bacterial community over an annual cycle. Mean values of bacterial densities were 5.3 x 104 CFUml-1 in Brindisi, 5.8 x 104 CFUml-1 in S. Cataldo, 4.3 x 104 CFUml-1 in Otranto and 6.7 x 104 CFUml-1 in S. M. di Leuca. The differences in bacterial densities between the sites considered were estimated. The hydrodynamic circulation, the trophism and the geographical position of the examined sites contribute to justify the different bacterial density trends. The bacterial community consisted mainly of the genera Aeromonas, Pseudomonas, Photobacterium and Flavobacterium. The Enterobacteriaceae represented a considerable fraction of the bacterial community in the Southern Adriatic Sea. Bacilli were predominant among the Gram positive bacteria. The enzymatic versatility of the observed genera suggest their importance in organic matter turnover of this oligotrophic ecosystem.

  6. Geographical structure and differential natural selection among North European populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McEvoy, Brian P; Montgomery, Grant W; McRae, Allan F

    2009-01-01

    polymorphism, in 2099 individuals from populations of Northern European origin (Ireland, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Australia, and HapMap European-American). The major trends (PC1 and PC2) demonstrate an ability to detect geographic substructure, even over a small area like...

  7. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 32; Estimates of AOD Trends (2002 - 2012) Over the World's Major Cities Based on the MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provencal, Simon; Kishcha, Pavel; Elhacham, Emily; daSilva, Arlindo M.; Alpert, Pinhas; Suarez, Max J.

    2014-01-01

    NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has extended the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) tool with five atmospheric aerosol species (sulfates, organic carbon, black carbon, mineral dust and sea salt). This inclusion of aerosol reanalysis data is now known as MERRAero. This study analyses a ten-year period (July 2002 - June 2012) MERRAero aerosol reanalysis applied to the study of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its trends for the aforementioned aerosol species over the world's major cities (with a population of over 2 million inhabitants). We found that a proportion of various aerosol species in total AOD exhibited a geographical dependence. Cities in industrialized regions (North America, Europe, central and eastern Asia) are characterized by a strong proportion of sulfate aerosols. Organic carbon aerosols are dominant over cities which are located in regions where biomass burning frequently occurs (South America and southern Africa). Mineral dust dominates other aerosol species in cities located in proximity to the major deserts (northern Africa and western Asia). Sea salt aerosols are prominent in coastal cities but are dominant aerosol species in very few of them. AOD trends are declining over cities in North America, Europe and Japan, as a result of effective air quality regulation. By contrast, the economic boom in China and India has led to increasing AOD trends over most cities in these two highly-populated countries. Increasing AOD trends over cities in the Middle East are caused by increasing desert dust.

  8. Projecting future sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

    2006-01-01

    California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future

  9. Testing deep-sea biodiversity paradigms on abyssal nematode genera and Acantholaimus species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lins, Lidia; da Silva, Maria Cristina; Neres, Patrícia; Esteves, André Morgado; Vanreusel, Ann

    2018-02-01

    Biodiversity patterns in the deep sea have been extensively studied in the last decades. In this study, we investigated whether reputable concepts in deep-sea ecology also explain diversity and distribution patterns of nematode genera and species in the abyss. Among them, three paradigms were tackled: (1) the deep sea is a highly diverse environment at a local scale, while on a regional and even larger geographical scale, species and genus turnover is limited; (2) the biodiversity of deep-sea nematode communities changes with the nature and amount of organic matter input from the surface; and (3) patch-mosaic dynamics of the deep-sea environment drive local diversity. To test these hypotheses, diversity and density of nematode assemblages and of species of the genus Acantholaimus were studied along two abyssal E-W transects. These two transects were situated in the Southern Ocean ( 50°S) and the North Atlantic ( 10°N). Four different hierarchical scales were used to compare biodiversity: at the scale of cores, between stations from the same region, and between regions. Results revealed that the deep sea harbours a high diversity at a local scale (alpha diversity), but that turnover can be shaped by different environmental drivers. Therefore, these results question the second part of the paradigm about limited species turnover in the deep sea. Higher surface primary productivity was correlated with greater nematode densities, whereas diversity responses to the augmentation of surface productivity showed no trend. Areas subjected to a constant and low food input revealed similar nematode communities to other oligotrophic abyssal areas, while stations under high productivity were characterized by different dominant genera and Acantholaimus species, and by a generally low local diversity. Our results corroborate the species-energy hypothesis, where productivity can set a limit to the richness of an ecosystem. Finally, we observed no correlation between sediment

  10. Evaluation of the contamination level of sea bottom sediments on the Crimean coast of the Black and Azov Seas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tikhonova Elena

    2016-12-01

    At the most stations in the Azov Sea the content of HM exceeded values obtained in the Black Sea. Now (2016 in the open Crimean coast bottom sediments of the Black Sea have properties typical for marine sediments of the studied area. There is an upward trend in the content of chloroform-extracted substances in the Black Sea region, but the sediments are not contaminated with oil products. Taking into account the physical-chemical characteristics of marine sediments, it can be stated that the condition the studied area as a whole is safe.

  11. Spatial variability and trends of seasonal snowmelt processes over Antarctic sea ice observed by satellite scatterometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arndt, S.; Haas, C.

    2017-12-01

    1992 to 2014. The subsequent regression analysis showed that no significant temporal trend in the retrieved snowmelt onset dates can be observed, but strong inter-annual variability. This absence of any notable changes in snowmelt behavior is in line with the small observed temporal changes of the Antarctic sea ice cover and atmospheric warming

  12. Research and implementation of geographic information service mode in digital home

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, B.; Liu, K.; Gan, Y.; Zhong, M.

    2014-04-01

    Accompanying infrastructure improvements and networking technology innovation, the development of digital home service industry has gotten more and more attention. However, the digital home service levels have not sufficiently met rising demand from users. Therefore, it is urgent to propose and develop new service modes for the digital home. Geographic information services can provide various spatial information services such as map search, spatial information query. It has become an inevitable trend to implement geographic information services in the digital home. This paper proposes three new geographic information services modes for the digital home after sufficient requirement analysis: pushed information service mode, interactive information service mode, personalized information service mode. The key technologies to implement geographic information services on digital televisions are studied, involving digital television middleware technology, network transmission technology and visualization technology. According to the service modes' characteristics mentioned above, a service system in the digital home is established to implement geographic information services on the basis of digital television. The implementation of geographic information services in the digital home not only enriches the digital home services content, but also promotes geographic information from specialization to public popularity.

  13. On the regional characteristics of past and future sea-level change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermann, A.; McGregor, S.

    2010-12-01

    Global sea-level rise due to the thermal expansion of the warming oceans and freshwater input from melting glaciers and ice-sheets is threatening to inundate low-lying islands and coast-lines worldwide. At present global mean sea level rises at 3.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr with an accelerating tendency. However, the magnitude of recent decadal sea-level trends varies greatly spatially attaining values of up to 10 mm/yr in some areas of the western tropical Pacific. Identifying the causes of recent regional sea-level trends and understanding the patterns of future projected sea-level change is of crucial importance. Using a wind-forced simplified dynamical ocean model, we show that the regional features of recent decadal and multidecadal sea-level trends in the tropical Indo-Pacific can be attributed to changes in the prevailing wind-regimes. Furthermore it is demonstrated that within an ensemble of ten state-of-the art coupled general circulation models, forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the next century, wind-induced re-distributions of upper-ocean water play a key role in establishing the spatial characteristics of projected regional sea-level rise. Wind-related changes in near- surface mass and heat convergence near the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia oppose, but can not cancel the regional signal of global mean sea-level rise.

  14. Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.; O'Regan, Matt; Pearce, Christof; Gemery, Laura; Toomey, Michael; Semiletov, Igor; Jakobsson, Martin

    2017-09-01

    Deglacial (12.8-10.7 ka) sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1) and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1), and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1). Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM; ˜ 24 kiloannum or ka) minimum sea level of ˜ 125-130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.). Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1) followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal) period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ˜ 400 cm of core depth) is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42-47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

  15. Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year survival rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunke, Jes [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi year ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first year sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. Here we develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of first year and multi year ice control the mean state, variability, and trends in ice area and volume.

  16. Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

    2008-12-01

    Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise

  17. Entrenched geographical and socioeconomic disparities in child mortality: trends in absolute and relative inequalities in Cambodia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliana Jimenez-Soto

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cambodia has made considerable improvements in mortality rates for children under the age of five and neonates. These improvements may, however, mask considerable disparities between subnational populations. In this paper, we examine the extent of the country's child mortality inequalities. METHODS: Mortality rates for children under-five and neonates were directly estimated using the 2000, 2005 and 2010 waves of the Cambodian Demographic Health Survey. Disparities were measured on both absolute and relative scales using rate differences and ratios, and where applicable, slope and relative indices of inequality by levels of rural/urban location, regions and household wealth. FINDINGS: Since 2000, considerable reductions in under-five and to a lesser extent in neonatal mortality rates have been observed. This mortality decline has, however, been accompanied by an increase in relative inequality in both rates of child mortality for geography-related stratifying markers. For absolute inequality amongst regions, most trends are increasing, particularly for neonatal mortality, but are not statistically significant. The only exception to this general pattern is the statistically significant positive trend in absolute inequality for under-five mortality in the Coastal region. For wealth, some evidence for increases in both relative and absolute inequality for neonates is observed. CONCLUSION: Despite considerable gains in reducing under-five and neonatal mortality at a national level, entrenched and increased geographical and wealth-based inequality in mortality, at least on a relative scale, remain. As expected, national progress seems to be associated with the period of political and macroeconomic stability that started in the early 2000s. However, issues of quality of care and potential non-inclusive economic growth might explain remaining disparities, particularly across wealth and geography markers. A focus on further addressing key

  18. The melt pond fraction and spectral sea ice albedo retrieval from MERIS data: validation and trends of sea ice albedo and melt pond fraction in the Arctic for years 2002-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Istomina, L.; Heygster, G.; Huntemann, M.; Schwarz, P.; Birnbaum, G.; Scharien, R.; Polashenski, C.; Perovich, D.; Zege, E.; Malinka, A.; Prikhach, A.; Katsev, I.

    2014-10-01

    The presence of melt ponds on the Arctic sea ice strongly affects the energy balance of the Arctic Ocean in summer. It affects albedo as well as transmittance through the sea ice, which has consequences on the heat balance and mass balance of sea ice. An algorithm to retrieve melt pond fraction and sea ice albedo (Zege et al., 2014) from the MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) data is validated against aerial, ship borne and in situ campaign data. The result show the best correlation for landfast and multiyear ice of high ice concentrations (albedo: R = 0.92, RMS = 0.068, melt pond fraction: R = 0.6, RMS = 0.065). The correlation for lower ice concentrations, subpixel ice floes, blue ice and wet ice is lower due to complicated surface conditions and ice drift. Combining all aerial observations gives a mean albedo RMS equal to 0.089 and a mean melt pond fraction RMS equal to 0.22. The in situ melt pond fraction correlation is R = 0.72 with an RMS = 0.14. Ship cruise data might be affected by documentation of varying accuracy within the ASPeCT protocol, which is the reason for discrepancy between the satellite value and observed value: mean R = 0.21, mean RMS = 0.16. An additional dynamic spatial cloud filter for MERIS over snow and ice has been developed to assist with the validation on swath data. The case studies and trend analysis for the whole MERIS period (2002-2011) show pronounced and reasonable spatial features of melt pond fractions and sea ice albedo. The most prominent feature is the melt onset shifting towards spring (starting already in weeks 3 and 4 of June) within the multiyear ice area, north to the Queen Elizabeth Islands and North Greenland.

  19. From Transnational Trends to Local Practices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pacheco Cueva, Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    . Furthermore, using Harvey’s geography of difference approach (2004) and a Gramscian conception of legitimacy, this chapter explores the various ways in which a geographically remote mining community in Papua New Guinea (PNG) replicates some of the global trends in socioeconomic monitoring....

  20. Sea Ice Prediction Has Easy and Difficult Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Lawrence C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward; Cutler, Matthew; Kay, Jennifer; Meier, Walter N.; Stroeve, Julienne; Wiggins, Helen

    2014-01-01

    Arctic sea ice follows an annual cycle, reaching its low point in September each year. The extent of sea ice remaining at this low point has been trending downwards for decades as the Arctic warms. Around the long-term downward trend, however, there is significant variation in the minimum extent from one year to the next. Accurate forecasts of yearly conditions would have great value to Arctic residents, shipping companies, and other stakeholders and are the subject of much current research. Since 2008 the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) (http://www.arcus.org/search-program/seaiceoutlook) organized by the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) (http://www.arcus.org/search-program) has invited predictions of the September Arctic sea ice minimum extent, which are contributed from the Arctic research community. Individual predictions, based on a variety of approaches, are solicited in three cycles each year in early June, July, and August. (SEARCH 2013).

  1. A new Link for Geographic analyses of Inventory Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Reed; Kurt Pregitzer; Scott A. Pugh; Patrick D. Miles

    2001-01-01

    The USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA)data are widely used throughout the United States for analyses of forest status and trends, landscape-level forest composition, and other forest characteristics. A new software product, FIAMODEL, is available for analyzing FIA data within the ArcView? (ESRI, Inc.)geographic information system. The software...

  2. Intermittent sea-level acceleration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivieri, M.; Spada, G.

    2013-10-01

    Using instrumental observations from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), we provide a new assessment of the global sea-level acceleration for the last ~ 2 centuries (1820-2010). Our results, obtained by a stack of tide gauge time series, confirm the existence of a global sea-level acceleration (GSLA) and, coherently with independent assessments so far, they point to a value close to 0.01 mm/yr2. However, differently from previous studies, we discuss how change points or abrupt inflections in individual sea-level time series have contributed to the GSLA. Our analysis, based on methods borrowed from econometrics, suggests the existence of two distinct driving mechanisms for the GSLA, both involving a minority of tide gauges globally. The first effectively implies a gradual increase in the rate of sea-level rise at individual tide gauges, while the second is manifest through a sequence of catastrophic variations of the sea-level trend. These occurred intermittently since the end of the 19th century and became more frequent during the last four decades.

  3. Two centuries of extreme events over the Baltic Sea and North Sea regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stendel, Martin; den Besselaar Else, van; Abdel, Hannachi; Jaak, Jaagus; Elizabeth, Kent; Christiana, Lefebvre; Gudrun, Rosenhagen; Anna, Rutgersson; Frederik, Schenk; der Schrier Gerard, van; Tim, Woolings

    2017-04-01

    Two centuries of extreme events over the Baltic Sea and North Sea regions In the framework of the BACC 2 (for the Baltic Sea) and NOSCCA projects (for the North Sea region), studies of past and present variability and changes in atmospheric variables within the North Sea region over the instrumental period (roughly the past 200 years) have been investigated. Findings on trends in temperature and precipitation have already been presented. Here we focus on data homogeneity issues and examine how reliable reanalyses are in this context. Unlike most other regions in the world, there is a wealth of old observations available for the Baltic and North Sea regions, most of it in handwritten form in meteorological journals and other publications. These datasets need to be carefully digitised and homogenized. For this, a thorough quality control must be applied; otherwise the digitised datasets may prove useless or even counterproductive. We present evidence that this step cannot be conducted without human interference and thus cannot be fully automated. Furthermore, inhomogeneities due to e.g. instrumentation and station relocations need to be addressed. A wealth of reanalysis products is available, which can help detect such inhomogeneities in observed time series, but at the same time are prone to biases and/or spurious trends themselves e.g. introduced by changes in the availability and quality of the underlying assimilated data. It therefore in general remains unclear in how far we can simulate the pre-satellite era with respect to homogeneity with reanalyses based only on parts of the observing system. Extreme events and changes in extreme situations are more important and of greater (societal) significance than changes in mean climate. However, changes in extreme weather events are difficult to assess not only because they are, per definition, rare events, but also due to the homogeneity issues outlined above. Taking these into account, we present evidence for changes

  4. Expansion of the South China Sea basin: Constraints from magnetic anomaly stripes, sea floor topography, satellite gravity and submarine geothermics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuezhong Yu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The widely distributed E–W-trending magnetic anomaly stripes in the central basin and the N–E-trending magnetic anomaly stripes in the southwest sub-basin provide the most important evidence for Neogene expansion of the South China Sea. The expansion mechanism remains, however, controversial because of the lack of direct drilling data, non-systematic marine magnetic survey data, and irregular magnetic anomaly stripes with two obvious directions. For example, researchers have inferred different ages and episodes of expansion for the central basin and southwest sub-basin. Major controversy centers on the order of basinal expansion and the mechanism of expansion for the entire South China Sea basin. This study attempts to constrain these problems from a comprehensive analysis of the seafloor topography, magnetic anomaly stripes, regional aeromagnetic data, satellite gravity, and submarine geothermics. The mapped seafloor terrain shows that the central basin is a north-south rectangle that is relatively shallow with many seamounts, whereas the southwest sub-basin is wide in northeast, gradually narrows to the southwest, and is relatively deeper with fewer seamounts. Many magnetic anomaly stripes are present in the central basin with variable dimensions and directions that are dominantly EW-trending, followed by the NE-, NW- and NS-trending. Conversely such stripes are few in the southwest sub-basin and mainly NE-trending. Regional magnetic data suggest that the NW-trending Ailaoshan-Red River fault extends into the South China Sea, links with the central fault zone in the South China Sea, which extends further southward to Reed Tablemount. Satellite gravity data show that both the central basin and southwest sub-basin are composed of oceanic crust. The Changlong seamount is particularly visible in the southwest sub-basin and extends eastward to the Zhenbei seamount. Also a low gravity anomaly zone coincides with the central fault zone in the sub

  5. Elephant overflows: Multi-annual variability in Weddell Sea Deep Water driven by surface forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meijers, Andrew; Meredith, Michael; Abrahamsen, Povl; Naviera-Garabato, Alberto; Ángel Morales Maqueda, Miguel; Polzin, Kurt

    2015-04-01

    The volume of the deepest and densest water mass in Drake Passage, Lower Weddell Sea Deep Water (LWSDW), is shown to have been decreasing over the last 20 years of observations, with an associated reduction in density driven by freshening. Superimposed on this long term trend is a multi-annual oscillation with a period of 3-5 years. This variability only appears in Drake Passage; observations in the east of the Scotia Sea show a similar long term trend, but with no apparent multi-annual variability. Clues as to the source of this variability may be found on the continental slope at approximately 1000 m immediately north of Elephant Island on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here there is an intermittent westward flowing cold/fresh slope current whose volume and properties are strongly correlated with the LWSDW multi-annual variability, although leading the LWSDW by around one year. As the slope current and LWSDW are separated from each other both geographically and in water mass characteristics, their co-variability implies that they are responding to a common forcing, while the lag between deep LWSDW and shallow slope current provides information on the timescale of this response. A newly available high resolution temperature and salinity multi-year time series from the Elephant Island slope at 1000 m is compared with reanalysis and model derived surface fluxes, sea ice extent and wind stress. We find that there are strong positive relationships between the surface wind stress and heat flux over the shelf at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula and the properties of the slope current at 1000 m on seasonal to annual timescales. We use tracer release experiments in the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) model to investigate the lag between the slope current and LWSDW timeseries and hypothesise that the observed multi-annual variability in both water masses is driven by surface forcing over the shelf and the overflow of modified water from the slope in

  6. Geographical Simulation and Optimization System (GeoSOS and Its Application in the Analysis of Geographic National Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LI Xia

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Since the Chinese first survey on geographic national conditions has completed, an urgent need is to analyze these geographical data, such as mining of spatial distribution patterns, land use transition rules, development trends. The analysis is crucial for extracting the knowledge from these big data about geographic national conditions. The remote sensing interpretation data and land use/cover data generated by these geographic national conditions monitoring projects are the basic data sources for a variety of research and applications in terms of land use change detection, urban dynamic analysis, and urban/land use planning. The information can be used for assisting in the coordination of land resource use and decision making for urban and rural development, ecological environment protection and other issues that depends on spatial intelligent decisions. We proposed the theoretical framework of geographical simulation and optimization system (GeoSOS, which coupled geographic process simulation/prediction and spatial optimization, provides powerful theoretical support and practical tools for above researches. This paper develops the extension of GeoSOS software-GeoSOS for ArcGIS, which is an ArcGIS Add-In runs on ArcGIS platform for facilitating the above analyses. We take the urban expansion and ecological protection research in rapid urbanization area as an example, use the software to tackle a series of urbanization issues in the study area. The simulation results show that the predicted land development intensity of Guangdong Province will exceed the constraint index in 2020 according to the national development plan. However, the urbanization expansion based on the constraints of land development intensity and ecological protection can satisfy these constraints, and obtain a more compact landscape pattern. The analysis has shown that GeoSOS can be a useful tool for assisting in the analysis of geographic national conditions information

  7. Loss of sea ice during winter north of Svalbard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingrid H. Onarheim

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Sea ice loss in the Arctic Ocean has up to now been strongest during summer. In contrast, the sea ice concentration north of Svalbard has experienced a larger decline during winter since 1979. The trend in winter ice area loss is close to 10% per decade, and concurrent with a 0.3°C per decade warming of the Atlantic Water entering the Arctic Ocean in this region. Simultaneously, there has been a 2°C per decade warming of winter mean surface air temperature north of Svalbard, which is 20–45% higher than observations on the west coast. Generally, the ice edge north of Svalbard has retreated towards the northeast, along the Atlantic Water pathway. By making reasonable assumptions about the Atlantic Water volume and associated heat transport, we show that the extra oceanic heat brought into the region is likely to have caused the sea ice loss. The reduced sea ice cover leads to more oceanic heat transferred to the atmosphere, suggesting that part of the atmospheric warming is driven by larger open water area. In contrast to significant trends in sea ice concentration, Atlantic Water temperature and air temperature, there is no significant temporal trend in the local winds. Thus, winds have not caused the long-term warming or sea ice loss. However, the dominant winds transport sea ice from the Arctic Ocean into the region north of Svalbard, and the local wind has influence on the year-to-year variability of the ice concentration, which correlates with surface air temperatures, ocean temperatures, as well as the local wind.

  8. Processes driving sea ice variability in the Bering Sea in an eddying ocean/sea ice model: Mean seasonal cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Linghan; McClean, Julie L.; Miller, Arthur J.; Eisenman, Ian; Hendershott, Myrl C.; Papadopoulos, Caroline A.

    2014-12-01

    The seasonal cycle of sea ice variability in the Bering Sea, together with the thermodynamic and dynamic processes that control it, are examined in a fine resolution (1/10°) global coupled ocean/sea-ice model configured in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The ocean/sea-ice model consists of the Los Alamos National Laboratory Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE). The model was forced with time-varying reanalysis atmospheric forcing for the time period 1970-1989. This study focuses on the time period 1980-1989. The simulated seasonal-mean fields of sea ice concentration strongly resemble satellite-derived observations, as quantified by root-mean-square errors and pattern correlation coefficients. The sea ice energy budget reveals that the seasonal thermodynamic ice volume changes are dominated by the surface energy flux between the atmosphere and the ice in the northern region and by heat flux from the ocean to the ice along the southern ice edge, especially on the western side. The sea ice force balance analysis shows that sea ice motion is largely associated with wind stress. The force due to divergence of the internal ice stress tensor is large near the land boundaries in the north, and it is small in the central and southern ice-covered region. During winter, which dominates the annual mean, it is found that the simulated sea ice was mainly formed in the northern Bering Sea, with the maximum ice growth rate occurring along the coast due to cold air from northerly winds and ice motion away from the coast. South of St Lawrence Island, winds drive the model sea ice southwestward from the north to the southwestern part of the ice-covered region. Along the ice edge in the western Bering Sea, model sea ice is melted by warm ocean water, which is carried by the simulated Bering Slope Current flowing to the northwest, resulting in the S-shaped asymmetric ice edge. In spring and fall, similar thermodynamic and dynamic

  9. The air-sea equilibrium and time trend of hexachlorocyclohexanes in the Atlantic Ocean between the Arctic and Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakaschus, Sonke; Weber, Kurt; Wania, Frank; Bruhn, Regina; Schrems, Otto

    2002-01-15

    Hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) were determined simultaneously in air and seawater during two cruises across the Atlantic Ocean between the Arctic Ocean (Ny-Alesund/ Svalbard, 79 degrees N; 12 degrees E) and the Antarctic Continent (Neumayer Station/ Ekstroem Ice Shelf, 70 degrees S; 8.2 degrees W) in 1999/ 2000. The concentrations of alpha-HCH and gamma-HCH in air and surface waters of the Arctic exceeded those in Antarctica by 1-2 orders of magnitude. The gaseous concentrations of gamma-HCH were highest above the North Sea and between 20 degrees N and 30 degrees S. Fugacity fractions were used to estimate the direction of the air-sea gas exchange. These showed for alpha-HCH thatthe measured concentrations in both phases were close to equilibrium in the North Atlantic (78 degrees N-40 degrees N), slightly undersaturated between 30 degrees N and 10 degrees S and again close to equilibrium between 20 degrees S and 50 degrees S. Y-HCH has reached phase equilibrium in the North Atlantic as alpha-HCH, but the surface waters of the tropical and southern Atlantic were strongly undersaturated with y-HCH, especially between 30 degrees N and 20 degrees S. These findings are significantly different from two earlier estimates around 1990 as a result of global emission changes within the past decade. Therefore, we investigated the time trend of the HCHs in the surface waters of the Atlantic between 50 degrees N and 60 degrees S on the basis of archived samples taken in 1987-1997 and those from 1999. A decrease of alpha-HCH by a factor of approximately 4 is observed at all sampling locations. No decrease of gamma-HCH occurred between 30 degrees N and 30 degrees S, but there was a decrease in the North Atlantic, North Sea, and in the South Atlantic south of 40 degrees S. The constant level of gamma-HCH in the tropical Atlantic confirms the conclusion that the tropical Atlantic acts as a sink for y-HCH at present time. The measured alpha-HCH seawater concentrations were compared

  10. A heuristic evaluation of long-term global sea level acceleration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spada, Giorgio; Olivieri, Marco; Galassi, Gaia

    2015-05-01

    In view of the scientific and social implications, the global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) and its possible causes and future trend have been a challenge for so long. For the twentieth century, reconstructions generally indicate a rate of GMSLR in the range of 1.5 to 2.0 mm yr-1. However, the existence of nonlinear trends is still debated, and current estimates of the secular acceleration are subject to ample uncertainties. Here we use various GMSLR estimates published on scholarly journals since the 1940s for a heuristic assessment of global sea level acceleration. The approach, alternative to sea level reconstructions, is based on simple statistical methods and exploits the principles of meta-analysis. Our results point to a global sea level acceleration of 0.54 ± 0.27 mm/yr/century (1σ) between 1898 and 1975. This supports independent estimates and suggests that a sea level acceleration since the early 1900s is more likely than currently believed.

  11. Long-term and seasonal Caspian Sea level change from satellite gravity and altimeter measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J. L.; Wilson, C. R.; Tapley, B. D.; Save, H.; Cretaux, Jean-Francois

    2017-03-01

    We examine recent Caspian Sea level change by using both satellite radar altimetry and satellite gravity data. The altimetry record for 2002-2015 shows a declining level at a rate that is approximately 20 times greater than the rate of global sea level rise. Seasonal fluctuations are also much larger than in the world oceans. With a clearly defined geographic region and dominant signal magnitude, variations in the sea level and associated mass changes provide an excellent way to compare various approaches for processing satellite gravity data. An altimeter time series derived from several successive satellite missions is compared with mass measurements inferred from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data in the form of both spherical harmonic (SH) and mass concentration (mascon) solutions. After correcting for spatial leakage in GRACE SH estimates by constrained forward modeling and accounting for steric and terrestrial water processes, GRACE and altimeter observations are in complete agreement at seasonal and longer time scales, including linear trends. This demonstrates that removal of spatial leakage error in GRACE SH estimates is both possible and critical to improving their accuracy and spatial resolution. Excellent agreement between GRACE and altimeter estimates also provides confirmation of steric Caspian Sea level change estimates. GRACE mascon estimates (both the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) coastline resolution improvement version 2 solution and the Center for Space Research (CSR) regularized) are also affected by leakage error. After leakage corrections, both JPL and CSR mascon solutions also agree well with altimeter observations. However, accurate quantification of leakage bias in GRACE mascon solutions is a more challenging problem.

  12. Developing Remote Sensing Capabilities for Meter-Scale Sea Ice Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    Malinka and A. Prikchach, The melt pond fraction and spectral sea ice albedo retrieval from MERIS data: validation and trends of sea ice albedo and... Sea Ice Properties Chris Polashenski, PI USACE-CRREL Building 4070 Fort Wainwright, AK 99703 phone: (570) 956-6990 fax: (907) 361-5188...overarching goal of this work is to develop and validate remote sensing techniques to track sea ice physical properties of geophysical importance that

  13. Mapping of Posidonia oceanica (L. Delile Meadows Using Geographic Information Systems: A case study in Ufakdere - Kaş (Mediterranean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volkan Demir

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Posidonia oceanica (Linnaeus Delile 1813 is an endemic and the most widespread seagrass species of the Mediterranean Sea. Seagrass meadows are one of the most productive ecosystems on Earth, providing habitat to numerous organisms. Therefore, mapping of seagrass meadows is of crucial importance for conservation and coastal management purposes. Here we present an integrated geographic information system approach with SCUBA diving, providing a cost effective method to monitor seagrass beds at shallow coastal habitats. In this case study P. oceanica meadows were mapped in Ufakdere region of Kaş (Antalya coastal area between April – September 2015. A total of 25000 m2 are were screened to create seagrass coverage maps. Results indicate that P. oceanica meadows cover 21200 m2 and we estimated that 520 m2 of this area is highly damaged. This integrated approach provided one of the most detailed small-scale Posidonia mapping in Turkey and this time and cost effective methodology can be applied to any seagrass meadow with great ease to increase our knowledge on this important habitat.

  14. Polygons of global undersea features for geographic searches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartwell, Stephen R.; Wingfield, Dana K.; Allwardt, Alan O.; Lightsom, Frances L.; Wong, Florence L.

    2018-01-01

    A shapefile of 311 undersea features from all major oceans and seas has been created as an aid for retrieving georeferenced information resources. Geospatial information systems with the capability to search user-defined, polygonal geographic areas will be able to utilize this shapefile or secondary products derived from it, such as linked data based on well-known text representations of the individual polygons within the shapefile. Version 1.1 of this report also includes a linked data representation of 299 of these features and their spatial extents.

  15. Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmith, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to physically-based models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting...... of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and surface air temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea...... level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s is exceptional in the sense that sea level and warming deviates from the expected...

  16. Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to the lack of representation of ice-sheet dynamics in present-day physically-based climate models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends......, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and land-ocean surface air...... temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s...

  17. Black Sea Traffic and European Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veselina Urucu

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The Black Sea is a major component of the MeditetmneanSea. It is a bridge between two continents and a factor of cohesionamong ancient neighbouring spaces of civilisation. Someof its geographical peculiatities make of it a half-closed sea betweenEurope and Asia. Its link with the Mediterranean is securedby the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles Straits and thencewith the planetaty ocean. So, the Black Sea ports represent actualgateways to the world for its tiverain countries. These portsboomed or waned in terms of the riverain regions' hist01y. After1990, and moreover after the Soviet Union fell apatt and newsovereign states came into being, the Pontic space has been undergoingmajor geopolitical changes. Traffic suffered radicalchanges, being governed by fresh criteria and directions. Thereis growing competition among the city-ports and, under the1992 Black Sea Economic Co-operation Treaty, new regionaldevelopment opportunities have been cropping up for the individualstates. Viewed at global scale, the Black Sea might play,if integrated into an adequate programme, an essential role ofcohesion and stability in a complex European zone with a histOtyfull of turmoil.

  18. Monthly Variations in Sea Level at the Island of Zanzibar

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The trend in sea level. (9%) appeared ... There is a strong likelihood that physical processes other .... a bell-shaped curve. To avoid erroneous conclusions, residual analysis tests were carried ..... prediction of sea level, regardless of the units ...

  19. The Diversity of Cloud Responses to Twentieth Century Sea Surface Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvers, Levi G.; Paynter, David; Zhao, Ming

    2018-01-01

    Low-level clouds are shown to be the conduit between the observed sea surface temperatures (SST) and large decadal fluctuations of the top of the atmosphere radiative imbalance. The influence of low-level clouds on the climate feedback is shown for global mean time series as well as particular geographic regions. The changes of clouds are found to be important for a midcentury period of high sensitivity and a late century period of low sensitivity. These conclusions are drawn from analysis of amip-piForcing simulations using three atmospheric general circulation models (AM2.1, AM3, and AM4.0). All three models confirm the importance of the relationship between the global climate sensitivity and the eastern Pacific trends of SST and low-level clouds. However, this work argues that the variability of the climate feedback parameter is not driven by stratocumulus-dominated regions in the eastern ocean basins, but rather by the cloudy response in the rest of the tropics.

  20. Sea Ice Evolution in the Pacific Arctic by Selected CMIP5 Models: the Present and the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, M.; Yang, Q.; Overland, J. E.; Stabeno, P. J.

    2016-12-01

    With fast declining of sea ice cover in the Arctic, the timing of sea ice break-up and freeze-up is an urgent economic, social and scientific issue. Based on daily sea ice concentration data we assess three parameters: the dates of sea ice break-up and freeze-up and the annual sea ice duration in the Pacific Arctic. The sea ice duration is shrinking, with the largest trend during the past decade (1990-2015); this declining trend will continue based on CMIP5 model projections. The seven CMIP5 models used in current study are able to simulate all three parameters well when compared with observations. Comparisons made at eight Chukchi Sea mooring sites and the eight Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) boxes show consistent results as well. The 30-year averaged trend for annual sea ice duration is projected to be -0.68 days/year to -1.2 days/year for 2015-2044. This is equivalent 20 to 36 days reduction in the annual sea ice duration. A similar magnitude of the negative trend is also found at all eight DBO boxes. The reduction in annual sea ice duration will include both earlier break-up dates and later freeze-up date. However, models project that a later freeze-up contributes more than early break-up to the overall shortening of annual sea ice duration. Around the Bering Strait future changes are the smallest, with less than 20-days change in duration during next 30 years. Upto 60 days reduction of the sea ice duration is projected for the decade of 2030-2044 in the East Siberia, the Chukchi and the Beaufort Seas.

  1. Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

    2017-04-20

    Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

  2. Silicon utilizing microorganisms in the sea act as the environmental bellwether which foretell future trends in weather fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, S.

    2012-12-01

    It is well known that the southerly shift of the Gulf Stream is associated with major storms, heavy rains and mudslide in the adjoining northern part of the globe. Phytoplanktons particularly their silicon utilizing members like diatoms were found to play a major part in this phenomenon. A decrease in silicon utilizing phytoplanktons and chlorophyll-a , which sometimes occurs even more than 10 fold was found associated with a parallel significant decrease of zooplanktons as reflected in the CPR survey, leads to fall of sea temperature causing a shift of the Gulf Stream. This sea temperature changes is also associated with cooling of the adjoining atmosphere in a remarkable way which leads to weather changes. The association of silicon utilizing diatoms and the ocean currents guides the future trends in the climatic swing known as NAO, one of the great fluctuations that occur in the global climate, the largest of which is the ENSO phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, which cause destruction all around the tropics. When total density and biovolume of phytoplanktons were studied it was found that the changes of pennate diatoms was unique and occurred in an opposite way in comparison to green algae, blue green algae, chrysophyte, cryptophytes, dinoflagellates and green flagellates.

  3. Magnetic anomalies in the Cosmonauts Sea, off East Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nogi, Y.; Hanyu, T.; Fujii, M.

    2017-12-01

    Identification of magnetic anomaly lineations and fracture zone trends in the Southern Indian Ocean, are vital to understanding the breakup of Gondwana. However, the magnetic spreading anomalies and fracture zones are not clear in the Southern Indian Ocean. Magnetic anomaly lineations in the Cosmonauts Sea, off East Antarctica, are key to elucidation of separation between Sri Lanka/India and Antarctica. No obvious magnetic anomaly lineations are observed from a Japanese/German aerogeophysical survey in the Cosmonauts Sea, and this area is considered to be created by seafloor spreading during the Cretaceous Normal Superchron. Vector magnetic anomaly measurements have been conducted on board the Icebreaker Shirase mainly to understand the process of Gondwana fragmentation in the Indian Ocean. Magnetic boundary strikes are derived from vector magnetic anomalies obtained in the Cosmonauts Sea. NE-SW trending magnetic boundary strikes are mainly observed along the several NW-SE oriented observation lines with magnetic anomaly amplitudes of about 200 nT. These NE-SW trending magnetic boundary strikes possibly indicate M-series magnetic anomalies that can not be detected from the aerogeophysical survey with nearly N-S observation lines. We will discuss the magnetic spreading anomalies and breakup process between Sri Lanka/India and Antarctica in the Cosmonauts Sea.

  4. Phylogeography of the sandy beach amphipod Haustorioides japonicus along the Sea of Japan: Paleogeographical signatures of cryptic regional divergences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takada, Yoshitake; Sakuma, Kay; Fujii, Tetsuo; Kojima, Shigeaki

    2018-01-01

    Recent findings of genetic breaks within apparently continuous marine populations challenge the traditional vicariance paradigm in population genetics. Such "invisible" boundaries are sometimes associated with potential geographic barriers that have forced divergence of an ancestral population, habitat discontinuities, biogeographic disjunctions due to environmental gradients, or a combination of these factors. To explore the factors that influence the genetic population structure of apparently continuous populations along the Sea of Japan, the sandy beach amphipod Haustorioides japonicus was examined. We sampled a total of 300 individuals of H. japonicus from the coast of Japan, and obtained partial sequences of the mitochondrial COI gene. The sequences from 19 local populations were clustered into five groups (Northwestern Pacific, Northern, Central, Southern Sea of Japan, and East China Sea) based on a spatial genetic mixture analysis and a minimum-spanning network. AMOVA and pairwise Fst tests further supported the significant divergence of the five groups. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the relationship among the haplotypes of H. japonicus and outgroups, which inferred the northward range expansion of the species. A relaxed molecular-clock Bayesian analysis inferred the early-to middle-Pleistocene divergence of the populations. Among the five clusters, the Central Sea of Japan showed the highest values for genetic diversity indices indicating the existence of a relatively stable and large population there. The hypothesis is also supported by Bayesian Skyline Plots that showed sudden population expansion for all the clusters except for Central Sea of Japan. The present study shows genetic boundaries between the Sea of Japan and the neighboring seas, probably due to geographic isolation during the Pleistocene glacial periods. We further found divergence between the populations along the apparently continuous coast of the Sea of Japan. Historical changes in the

  5. Geographic Video 3d Data Model And Retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Z.; Cui, C.; Kong, Y.; Wu, H.

    2014-04-01

    Geographic video includes both spatial and temporal geographic features acquired through ground-based or non-ground-based cameras. With the popularity of video capture devices such as smartphones, the volume of user-generated geographic video clips has grown significantly and the trend of this growth is quickly accelerating. Such a massive and increasing volume poses a major challenge to efficient video management and query. Most of the today's video management and query techniques are based on signal level content extraction. They are not able to fully utilize the geographic information of the videos. This paper aimed to introduce a geographic video 3D data model based on spatial information. The main idea of the model is to utilize the location, trajectory and azimuth information acquired by sensors such as GPS receivers and 3D electronic compasses in conjunction with video contents. The raw spatial information is synthesized to point, line, polygon and solid according to the camcorder parameters such as focal length and angle of view. With the video segment and video frame, we defined the three categories geometry object using the geometry model of OGC Simple Features Specification for SQL. We can query video through computing the spatial relation between query objects and three categories geometry object such as VFLocation, VSTrajectory, VSFOView and VFFovCone etc. We designed the query methods using the structured query language (SQL) in detail. The experiment indicate that the model is a multiple objective, integration, loosely coupled, flexible and extensible data model for the management of geographic stereo video.

  6. MAIN FEATURES OF BALNEOLOGICAL AND MUD RESORTS NETWORK OF THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES

    OpenAIRE

    Молодецький, А. Е.; Пишна, Г. О.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose. The aim of the article is the characteristics of geographical (natural and socio-economic) prerequisites for the development of coastal resorts of Black Sea region countries, with emphasis on balneological and mud-bath of recreational resources systems. Six European and Asian countries – Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania have a diverse and significant resort and recreational resources of the Black Sea coast. However, for many decades the Black Sea resorts of thes...

  7. Salinity Trends within the Upper Layers of the Subpolar North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesdal, J. E.; Abernathey, R.; Goes, J. I.; Gordon, A. L.; Haine, T. W. N.

    2017-12-01

    Examination of a range of salinity products collectively suggest widespread freshening of the North Atlantic from the mid-2000 to the present. Monthly salinity fields reveal negative trends that differ in magnitude and significance between western and eastern regions of the North Atlantic. These differences can be attributed to the large negative interannual excursions in salinity in the western subpolar gyre and the Labrador Sea, which are not apparent in the central or eastern subpolar gyre. This study demonstrates that temporal trends in salinity in the northwest (including the Labrador Sea) are subject to mechanisms that are distinct from those responsible for the salinity trends in central and eastern North Atlantic. In the western subpolar gyre a negative correlation between near surface salinity and the circulation strength of the subpolar gyre suggests that negative salinity anomalies are connected to an intensification of the subpolar gyre, which is causing increased flux of freshwater from the East Greenland Current and subsequent transport into the Labrador Sea during the melting season. Analyses of sea surface wind fields suggest that the strength of the subpolar gyre is linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation-driven changes in wind stress curl in the eastern subpolar gyre. If this trend of decreasing salinity continues, it has the potential to enhance water column stratification, reduce vertical fluxes of nutrients and cause a decline in biological production and carbon export in the North Atlantic Ocean.

  8. Deep-Sea, Deep-Sequencing: Metabarcoding Extracellular DNA from Sediments of Marine Canyons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Guardiola

    Full Text Available Marine sediments are home to one of the richest species pools on Earth, but logistics and a dearth of taxonomic work-force hinders the knowledge of their biodiversity. We characterized α- and β-diversity of deep-sea assemblages from submarine canyons in the western Mediterranean using an environmental DNA metabarcoding. We used a new primer set targeting a short eukaryotic 18S sequence (ca. 110 bp. We applied a protocol designed to obtain extractions enriched in extracellular DNA from replicated sediment corers. With this strategy we captured information from DNA (local or deposited from the water column that persists adsorbed to inorganic particles and buffered short-term spatial and temporal heterogeneity. We analysed replicated samples from 20 localities including 2 deep-sea canyons, 1 shallower canal, and two open slopes (depth range 100-2,250 m. We identified 1,629 MOTUs, among which the dominant groups were Metazoa (with representatives of 19 phyla, Alveolata, Stramenopiles, and Rhizaria. There was a marked small-scale heterogeneity as shown by differences in replicates within corers and within localities. The spatial variability between canyons was significant, as was the depth component in one of the canyons where it was tested. Likewise, the composition of the first layer (1 cm of sediment was significantly different from deeper layers. We found that qualitative (presence-absence and quantitative (relative number of reads data showed consistent trends of differentiation between samples and geographic areas. The subset of exclusively benthic MOTUs showed similar patterns of β-diversity and community structure as the whole dataset. Separate analyses of the main metazoan phyla (in number of MOTUs showed some differences in distribution attributable to different lifestyles. Our results highlight the differentiation that can be found even between geographically close assemblages, and sets the ground for future monitoring and conservation

  9. The impact of anticyclonic mesoscale structures on microbial food webs in the Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christaki, U.; van Wambeke, F.; Lefevre, D.; Lagaria, A.; Prieur, L.; Pujo-Pay, M.; Grattepanche, J.-D.; Colombet, J.; Psarra, S.; Dolan, J. R.; Sime-Ngando, T.; Conan, P.; Weinbauer, M. G.; Moutin, T.

    2011-01-01

    The abundance and activity of the major members of the heterotrophic microbial community - from viruses to ciliates - were studied along a longitudinal transect across the Mediterranean Sea in the summer of 2008. The Mediterranean Sea is characterized by a west to the east gradient of deepening of DCM (deep chlorophyll maximum) and increasing oligotrophy reflected in gradients of heterotrophic microbial biomass and production. However, within this longitudinal trend, hydrological mesoscale features exist and likely influence microbial dynamics. We show here the importance of mesoscale structures by a description of the structure and function of the microbial food web through an investigation of 3 geographically distant eddies within a longitudinal transect. Three selected sites each located in the center of an anticyclonic eddy were intensively investigated: in the Algero-Provencal Basin (St. A), the Ionian Basin (St. B), and the Levantine Basin (St. C). The 3 geographically distant eddies showed the lowest values of the different heterotrophic compartments of the microbial food web, and except for viruses in site C, all stocks were higher in the neighboring stations outside the eddies. During our study the 3 eddies showed equilibrium between GCP (Gross Community Production) and DCR (Dark Community Respiration); moreover, the west-east (W-E) gradient was evident in terms of heterotrophic biomass but not in terms of production. Means of integrated PPp values were higher at site B (~190 mg C m-2 d-1) and about 15% lower at sites A and C (~160 mg C m-2 d-1). Net community production fluxes were similar at all three stations exhibiting equilibrium between gross community production and dark community respiration.

  10. Regional Changes in the Sea Ice Cover and Ice Production in the Antarctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino C.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal polynyas around the Antarctic continent have been regarded as sea ice factories because of high ice production rates in these regions. The observation of a positive trend in the extent of Antarctic sea ice during the satellite era has been intriguing in light of the observed rapid decline of the ice extent in the Arctic. The results of analysis of the time series of passive microwave data indicate large regional variability with the trends being strongly positive in the Ross Sea, strongly negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas and close to zero in the other regions. The atmospheric circulation in the Antarctic is controlled mainly by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the marginal ice zone around the continent shows an alternating pattern of advance and retreat suggesting the presence of a propagating wave (called Antarctic Circumpolar Wave) around the circumpolar region. The results of analysis of the passive microwave data suggest that the positive trend in the Antarctic sea ice cover could be caused primarily by enhanced ice production in the Ross Sea that may be associated with more persistent and larger coastal polynyas in the region. Over the Ross Sea shelf, analysis of sea ice drift data from 1992 to 2008 yields a positive rate-of-increase in the net ice export of about 30,000 km2 per year. For a characteristic ice thickness of 0.6 m, this yields a volume transport of about 20 km3/year, which is almost identical, within error bars, to our estimate of the trend in ice production. In addition to the possibility of changes in SAM, modeling studies have also indicated that the ozone hole may have a role in that it causes the deepening of the lows in the western Antarctic region thereby causing strong winds to occur offthe Ross-ice shelf.

  11. An analysis of warm pool and cold tongue El Ninos: air-sea coupling processes, global influences, and recent trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Jha, Bhaskar; Huang, Boyin [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wyle Information Systems, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua [George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2012-05-15

    The differences in tropical air-sea interactions and global climate connection as well as the hindcast skills for the warm pool (WP) and cold tongue (CT) El Ninos are investigated based on observed, (re)analyzed, and model hindcast data. The robustness of observed global climate connection is established from the model simulations. Lastly, variations of atmosphere and ocean conditions in the recent decades, and their possible connection with the frequency increase of the WP El Nino are discussed. Consistent with previous results, our individual case study and composite results suggest that stronger (weaker) and more eastward extended (westward confined) westerly wind along the equatorial Pacific in early months of a year is associated with active (suppressed) air-sea interaction over the cold tongue/the Intertropical Convergence Zone complex, as well as more (less) intensive oceanic thermocline feedback, favoring the CT (WP) El Nino development. The preceding westerly wind signal and air-sea interaction differences may be responsible for the predication skill difference with higher (lower) overall hindcast skill for the CT (WP) El Nino in the Climate Forecast System of National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Our model experiments show that, in addition to the tropics, the eastern Pacific, North America and North Atlantic are the major regions having robust climate differences between the CT and WP El Ninos. Nevertheless, the climate contrasts seem not robust over the Eurasian continent. Also, the frequency increase of the WP El Nino in the recent decades may not be directly connected with the linear trend of the tropical climate. (orig.)

  12. Climate Trend Detection using Sea-Surface Temperature Data-sets from the (A)ATSR and AVHRR Space Sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llewellyn-Jones, D. T.; Corlett, G. K.; Remedios, J. J.; Noyes, E. J.; Good, S. A.

    2007-05-01

    Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) is an important indicator of global change, designated by GCOS as an essential Climate Variable (ECV). The detection of trends in Global SST requires rigorous measurements that are not only global, but also highly accurate and consistent. Space instruments can provide the means to achieve these required attributes in SST data. This paper presents an analysis of 15 years of SST data from two independent data sets, generated from the (A)ATSR and AVHRR series of sensors respectively. The analyses reveal trends of increasing global temperature between 0.13°C to 0.18 °C, per decade, closely matching that expected from some current predictions. A high level of consistency in the results from the two independent observing systems is seen, which gives increased confidence in data from both systems and also enables comparative analyses of the accuracy and stability of both data sets to be carried out. The conclusion is that these satellite SST data-sets provide important means to quantify and explore the processes of climate change. An analysis based upon singular value decomposition, allowing the removal of gross transitory disturbances, notably the El Niño, in order to examine regional areas of change other than the tropical Pacific, is also presented. Interestingly, although El Niño events clearly affect SST globally, they are found to have a non- significant (within error) effect on the calculated trends, which changed by only 0.01 K/decade when the pattern of El Niño and the associated variations was removed from the SST record. Although similar global trends were calculated for these two independent data sets, larger regional differences are noted. Evidence of decreased temperatures after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 was also observed. The methodology demonstrated here can be applied to other data-sets, which cover long time-series observations of geophysical observations in order to characterise long-term change.

  13. Strandings of cetaceans and sea turtles in the Alboran Sea and Strait of Gibraltar: a long–time glimpse of the north coast (Spain and the south coast (Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rojo–Nieto, E.

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A total of 13 species of cetaceans and three species of marine turtles were found in this study. Data were collected by eight independent and self-regulated stranding networks, providing information about 1,198 marine mammal (10 odontocetii, three mysticetii and one phocidae and 574 sea turtle stranding events between 1991 and 2008. Trends in the strandings were analysed in relation to species composition and abundance, and their geographic and seasonal distribution. The most abundant species recorded were the striped dolphin and the loggerhead turtle. Some of the strandings, such as the humpback whale, harbour porpoise, hooded seal and olive ridley turtle, were considered ‘rare’ because their distribution did not match the pattern of the study. When the north and south coasts in the study area were compared, pilot whales stranded more frequently in the north, while delphinid species stranded more in the south coast, and loggerhead turtles stranded more frequently in the north while leatherback turtles stranded more in south coast.

  14. Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.; O'Regan, Matt; Pearce, Christof; Gemery, Laura; Toomey, Michael; Semiletov, Igor

    2017-01-01

    Deglacial (12.8–10.7 ka) sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1) and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1), and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1). Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM;  ∼  24 kiloannum or ka) minimum sea level of  ∼  125–130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.). Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1) followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal) period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ∼  400 cm of core depth) is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42–47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

  15. Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Cronin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Deglacial (12.8–10.7 ka sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1 and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1, and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1. Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM;  ∼  24 kiloannum or ka minimum sea level of  ∼  125–130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.. Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1 followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ∼  400 cm of core depth is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42–47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

  16. One new genus and three new species of deep-sea nematodes (Nematoda: Microlaimidae) from the Southwest Pacific Ocean and Ross Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, Daniel

    2016-02-11

    New deep-sea nematodes of the family Microlaimidae are described from the Southwest Pacific Ocean and Ross Sea. Microlaimus korari n. sp. is characterised by annulated cuticle with longitudinal bars, round amphideal aperture slightly smaller than the cryptospiral amphideal fovea, spacious and heavily cuticularised buccal cavity with large dorsal tooth and right subventral tooth situated anteriorly relative to left subventral tooth, slender spicules 4.4 cloacal body diameters long, and gubernaculum 1.2 cloacal body diameters long with laterally curved distal end and swollen proximal end. Bolbolaimus tongaensis n. sp. is characterised by annulated cuticle with longitudinal bars, oval amphideal aperture and cryptocircular amphideal fovea situated between cephalic setae and only partially surrounded by cuticle annulations, and short spicules cuticularised along dorsal edge and at proximal end and with swollen portion near proximal end. Maragnopsia n. gen. is characterised by a minute, non-cuticularised mouth cavity without teeth, an elongated posterior pharyngeal bulb more than twice as long as it is wide, a single outstretched testis, and a conico-cylindrical tail 13-16 anal body diameters long. A list of all 83 valid Microlaimus species is provided. The present study provides the first microlaimid species records from deep-sea habitats (> 200 m depth) in the Southwest Pacific and Ross Sea. The presence of M. korari n. sp. on both the continental slope of New Zealand and Ross Sea abyssal plain suggests that this species has a wide geographical and depth distribution. However, molecular analyses will be required to confirm the identity of these two geographically disparate populations.

  17. Bipolar gene flow in deep-sea benthic foraminifera

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pawlowski, J.; Fahrni, J.; Lecroq, B.

    2007-01-01

    Despite its often featureless appearance, the deep-ocean floor includes some of the most diverse habitats on Earth. However, the accurate assessment of global deep-sea diversity is impeded by a paucity of data on the geographical ranges of bottom-dwelling species, particularly at the genetic leve...

  18. Trend Analysis of Pahang River Using Non-Parametric Analysis: Mann Kendalls Trend Test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nur Hishaam Sulaiman; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Ahmad Dasuki Mustafa; Muhammad Azizi Amran; Fazureen Azaman; Ismail Zainal Abidin; Norsyuhada Hairoma

    2015-01-01

    Flood is common in Pahang especially during northeast monsoon season from November to February. Three river cross station: Lubuk Paku, Sg. Yap and Temerloh were selected as area of this study. The stream flow and water level data were gathered from DID record. Data set for this study were analysed by using non-parametric analysis, Mann-Kendall Trend Test. The results that obtained from stream flow and water level analysis indicate that there are positively significant trend for Lubuk Paku (0.001) and Sg. Yap (<0.0001) from 1972-2011 with the p-value < 0.05. Temerloh (0.178) data from 1963-2011 recorded no trend for stream flow parameter but negative trend for water level parameter. Hydrological pattern and trend are extremely affected by outside factors such as north east monsoon season that occurred in South China Sea and affected Pahang during November to March. There are other factors such as development and management of the areas which can be considered as factors affected the data and results. Hydrological Pattern is important to indicate the river trend such as stream flow and water level. It can be used as flood mitigation by local authorities. (author)

  19. Biologically-Oriented Processes in the Coastal Sea Ice Zone of the White Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melnikov, I. A.

    2002-12-01

    The annual advance and retreat of sea ice is a major physical determinant of spatial and temporal changes in the structure and function of marine coastal biological communities. Sea ice biological data obtained in the tidal zone of Kandalaksha Gulf (White Sea) during 1996-2001 period will be presented. Previous observations in this area were mainly conducted during the ice-free summer season. However, there is little information on the ice-covered winter season (6-7 months duration), and, especially, on the sea-ice biology in the coastal zone within tidal regimes. During the January-May period time-series observations were conducted on transects along shorelines with coastal and fast ice. Trends in the annual extent of sea ice showed significant impacts on ice-associated biological communities. Three types of sea ice impact on kelps, balanoides, littorinas and amphipods are distinguished: (i) positive, when sea ice protects these populations from grinding (ii) negative, when ice grinds both fauna and flora, and (iii) a combined effect, when fast ice protects, but anchored ice grinds plant and animals. To understand the full spectrum of ecological problems caused by pollution on the coastal zone, as well as the problems of sea ice melting caused by global warming, an integrated, long-term study of the physical, chemical, and biological processes is needed.

  20. Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esselborn, Saskia; Rudenko, Sergei; Schöne, Tilo

    2018-03-01

    Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year), and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS), and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability) with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr-1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability) and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr-1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test orbits calculated at GFZ, the sources of the

  1. Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Esselborn

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year, and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ, the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS, and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC. The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr−1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr−1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test

  2. Investigating the influence of anthropogenic forcing on observed mean and extreme sea level pressure trends over the Mediterranean Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkhordarian, Armineh

    2012-01-01

    We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scale component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.

  3. Paleocene-Eocene warming and biotic response in the epicontinental West Siberian Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frieling, Joost|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/338017909; Iakovleva, Alina I.; Reichart, Gert Jan|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/165599081; Aleksandrova, Galina N.; Gnibidenko, Zinaida N.; Schouten, Stefan|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/137124929; Sluijs, Appy|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/311474748

    2014-01-01

    We present a Paleocene-Eocene (ca. 60-52 Ma) sea-surface temperature record from sediments deposited in the epicontinental West Siberian Sea. TEX86 paleothermometry indicates long-term late Paleocene (~17 °C ca. 59 Ma) to early Eocene (26 °C at 52 Ma) sea-surface warming, consistent with trends

  4. Widening Geographical Disparities in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in the United States, 1969-2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gopal K. Singh, PhD

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: This study examined trends in geographical disparities in cardiovascular-disease (CVD mortality in the United States between 1969 and 2011. Methods: National vital statistics data and the National Longitudinal Mortality Study were used to estimate regional, state, and county-level disparities in CVD mortality over time. Log-linear, weighted least squares, and Cox regression were used to analyze mortality trends and differentials. Results: During 1969-2011, CVD mortality rates declined fastest in New England and Mid-Atlantic regions and slowest in the Southeast and Southwestern regions. In 1969, the mortality rate was 9% higher in the Southeast than in New England, but the differential increased to 48% in 2011. In 2011, Southeastern states, Mississippi and Alabama, had the highest CVD mortality rates, nearly twice the rates for Minnesota and Hawaii. Controlling for individual-level covariates reduced state differentials. State- and county-level differentials in CVD mortality rates widened over time as geographical disparity in CVD mortality increased by 50% between 1969 and 2011. Area deprivation, smoking, obesity, physical inactivity, diabetes prevalence, urbanization, lack of health insurance, and lower access to primary medical care were all significant predictors of county-level CVD mortality rates and accounted for 52.7% of the county variance. Conclusions and Global Health Implications: Although CVD mortality has declined for all geographical areas in the United States, geographical disparity has widened over time as certain regions and states, particularly those in the South, have lagged behind in mortality reduction. Geographical disparities in CVD mortality reflect inequalities in socioeconomic conditions and behavioral risk factors. With the global CVD burden on the rise, monitoring geographical disparities, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, could indicate the extent to which reductions in CVD mortality are

  5. Untangling Trends and Drivers of Changing River Discharge Along Florida's Gulf Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glodzik, K.; Kaplan, D. A.; Klarenberg, G.

    2017-12-01

    Along the relatively undeveloped Big Bend coastline of Florida, discharge in many rivers and springs is decreasing. The causes are unclear, though they likely include a combination of groundwater extraction for water supply, climate variability, and altered land use. Saltwater intrusion from altered freshwater influence and sea level rise is causing transformative ecosystem impacts along this flat coastline, including coastal forest die-off and oyster reef collapse. A key uncertainty for understanding river discharge change is predicting discharge from rainfall, since Florida's karstic bedrock stores large amounts of groundwater, which has a long residence time. This study uses Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA), a multivariate data reduction technique for time series, to find common trends in flow and reveal hydrologic variables affecting flow in eight Big Bend rivers since 1965. The DFA uses annual river flows as response time series, and climate data (annual rainfall and evapotranspiration by watershed) and climatic indices (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] Index and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] Index) as candidate explanatory variables. Significant explanatory variables (one evapotranspiration and three rainfall time series) explained roughly 50% of discharge variation across rivers. Significant trends (representing unexplained variation) were shared among rivers, with geographical grouping of five northern rivers and three southern rivers, along with a strong downward trend affecting six out of eight systems. ENSO and NAO had no significant impact. Advancing knowledge of these dynamics is necessary for forecasting how altered rainfall and temperatures from climate change may impact flows. Improved forecasting is especially important given Florida's reliance on groundwater extraction to support its growing population.

  6. Do Climate Models Simulate the Right Sea Ice Trends for the Wrong Reasons?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenblum, E. J.; Eisenman, I.

    2016-02-01

    Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, predict a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice cover. A number of recent studies have attributed this discrepancy in each hemisphere to natural variability. Here we examine sea ice changes during 1979-2013 in simulations from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project as well as the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. We find that after accounting for biases in the level of global warming in each simulation, the possibility that natural variability alone could explain the difference between models and observations becomes exceedingly small. This suggests instead that there is a systematic bias in the climate models or possibly the observations.

  7. Application of isostatic gravity anomaly in the Yellow Sea area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Z.; Qin, J.; Huang, W.; Wu, X.

    2017-12-01

    In order to study the deep crustal structure of the Yellow Sea area, we used the Airy-Heiskanen model to calculate the isostatic gravity anomaly of this area. Based on the Bouguer gravity anomaly and water depth data of this area, we chose the calculating parameters as standard crustal thickness 30 km, crust-mantle density difference 0.6g/cm3and grid spacing 0.1°×0.1°. This study reveals that there are six faults and four isostatic negative anomalies in the study area. The isostatic anomalies in much of Yellow Sea areas give priority to those with positive anomalies. The isostatic anomalies in North Yellow Sea are higher than South Yellow Sea with Jiashan-Xiangshui fault as the boundary. In the north of the study area, isostatic anomalies are characterized by large areas of positive anomaly. The change is relatively slow, and the trends give priority to the trend NE or NEE. In the middle of the north Yellow Sea basin, there is a local negative anomaly, arranged as a string of beads in NE to discontinuous distribution. Negative anomaly range is small, basically corresponds to the region's former Cenozoic sedimentary basin position. To the south of Jiashan-Xiangshui fault and west of Yellow Sea eastern margin fault, including most of the south Yellow Sea and Jiangsu province, the isostatic anomalies are lower. And the positive and negative anomalies are alternative distribution, and negative anomaly trap in extensive development. The trends give priority to NE, NEE, both to the NW. On the basis of the characteristics of isostatic gravity anomalies, it is concluded that the Yellow Sea belongs to continental crustal isostatic area whose isostatic anomalies is smooth and slow. ReferencesHeiskanen, W. A., F. A. V. Meinesz, and S. A. Korff (1958), The Earth and Its Gravity Field, McGraw-Hill, New York. Meng, X. J., X. H. Zhang, and J. Y. Yang (2014), Geophysical survey in eastern China seas and the characteristics of gravity and magnetic fields, Marine Geoglogy

  8. Assessment of genetic diversity using RAPD analysis in a germplasm collection of sea buckthorn

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.I. BARTISH

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD markers were used to characterize a part of a sea buckthorn gene bank collected for plant breeding purposes. Molecular markers were generated in 55 cultivars and accessions, representing five subspecies of Hippophae rhamnoides L. and intraspecific hybrids between different subspecies. Sixty-three markers were used to generate a Dice's similarity coefficient matrix of pairwise comparisons between individual RAPD profiles. Cluster (UPGMA and principal co-ordinate analyses, based on this matrix, revealed clustering of plants into groups which generally correspond to their taxonomic classification or geographic origin. The analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA was found useful for estimating components of genetic variation between and within taxonomic and geographic groups of accessions and cultivars. Whereas both alternatives for grouping the material (taxonomic or geographic origin resulted in significant between-group variation, the major part of molecular variance (approximately 75% was still attributed to variation within groups. We conclude that the RAPD analysis is useful for clarification of taxonomic and geographic origin of accessions and cultivars of sea buckthorn.

  9. Sea level hazards: Altimetric monitoring of tsunamis and sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlington, Benjamin Dillon

    Whether on the short timescale of an impending tsunami or the much longer timescale of climate change-driven sea level rise, the threat stemming from rising and inundating ocean waters is a great concern to coastal populations. Timely and accurate observations of potentially dangerous changes in sea level are vital in determining the precautionary steps that need to be taken in order to protect coastal communities. While instruments from the past have provided in situ measurements of sea level at specific locations across the globe, satellites can be used to provide improved spatial and temporal sampling of the ocean in addition to producing more accurate measurements. Since 1993, satellite altimetry has provided accurate measurements of sea surface height (SSH) with near-global coverage. Not only have these measurements led to the first definitive estimates of global mean sea level rise, satellite altimetry observations have also been used to detect tsunami waves in the open ocean where wave amplitudes are relatively small, a vital step in providing early warning to those potentially affected by the impending tsunami. The use of satellite altimetry to monitor two specific sea level hazards is examined in this thesis. The first section will focus on the detection of tsunamis in the open ocean for the purpose of providing early warning to coastal inhabitants. The second section will focus on estimating secular trends using satellite altimetry data with the hope of improving our understanding of future sea level change. Results presented here will show the utility of satellite altimetry for sea level monitoring and will lay the foundation for further advancement in the detection of the two sea level hazards considered.

  10. Thermosteric contribution of warming oceans to the global sea level variations

    OpenAIRE

    Bâki Iz H.

    2016-01-01

    Thermosteric contribution of warming oceans to the global sea level variations during the last century was evaluated at globally distributed 27 tide gauge stations with records over 80 years. The assessment was made using a recently proposed lagged model inclusive of a sea level trend, long and decadal periodicities, and lagged sea surface temperature measurements. The new model solutions revealed that almost all the long period periodic sea level changes experienced a...

  11. Paleocene–Eocene warming and biotic response in the epicontinental West Siberian Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frieling, J.; Iakovleva, A.I.; Reichart, G.-J.; Aleksandrova, G.N.; Gnibidenko, Z.N.; Schouten, S.; Sluijs, A.

    2014-01-01

    We present a Paleocene–Eocene (ca. 60–52 Ma) sea-surface temperature record from sediments deposited in the epicontinental West Siberian Sea. TEX86 paleothermometry indicates long-term late Paleocene (~17 °C ca. 59 Ma) to early Eocene (26 °C at 52 Ma) sea-surface warming, consistent with trends

  12. Geographic Variation in Cancer Incidence among Children and Adolescents in Taiwan (1995–2009)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Giun-Yi; Horng, Jiun-Lin; Yen, Hsiu-Ju; Lee, Chih-Ying; Lee, Yu-Sheng

    2015-01-01

    Background Evidence from our recent study suggested that the overall trend for cancer incidence in children and adolescents has been increasing in Taiwan. Methods To analyze geographic variations in this trend, cancer frequencies and incidence rates of disease groups were quantified according to geographic areas among 12,633 patients aged Taiwan Cancer Registry. Three geographic levels were defined, namely county or city, region (Northern, Central, Southern, and Eastern Taiwan), and local administrative area (special municipality, provincial city, county-administered city, township, and aboriginal area). Results Of the regions, Northern Taiwan had the highest incidence rate at 139.6 per million person-years, followed by Central (132.8), Southern (131.8), and Eastern (128.4) Taiwan. Significantly higher standardized rate ratios (SRRs) were observed in Northern Taiwan (SRR = 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02–1.10) and at the township level (SRR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.03–1.11). Of the cities or counties, New Taipei City yielded the highest SRR (1.08), followed by Taipei City (SRR = 1.07). A comparison of the rates in the four regions and the remainder of Taiwan according to cancer type revealed that only the rate of neuroblastomas in Eastern Taiwan was significantly low. Trend analysis showed that the most significant increase in incidence rate was observed at the township level, with an annual percent change of 1.8% during the 15-year study period. Conclusions The high rate of childhood cancer in Northern Taiwan and at the township level deserves further attention. The potential impacts of environmental factors on the upward trend of childhood cancer incidence rate in townships warrant further investigation. PMID:26192415

  13. Annual trends in catchability and fish stock assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marchal Paul

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available A key assumption of many fish stock assessment models is that catchability is constant over time. We assume here that trends in catchability may occur through fishing power creeping. The tuning fleets, which are prone to fishing power development, may be identified using the Hybrid method. A range of catchability trends, including values derived from the Hybrid method, is then implemented to standardise the fishing effort of some tuning fleets used in the stock assessments performed by XSA (eXtended Survivors Analysis. Stocks being assessed are the North Sea cod, saithe, plaice and sole. The performances of the new and traditional XSA assessments are compared using criteria based on the precision of catchability estimates, stationarity of Log-catchability residuals and retrospective patterns relative to fishing mortality, spawning stock biomass and recruitment estimates. The performances of the North Sea cod, plaice and sole assessments could be enhanced by accounting for an overall annual increase in the catchability of some of the tuning fleets. No significant trends could be detected in the catchability of the tuning fleets relative to the assessment of the North Sea saithe. By contrast with the traditional assessment, the spawning biomass of cod is expected not to have increased between 1997 and 1998, while the fishing mortality of sole is expected to have increased over the same period.

  14. Long-term temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper; Carstensen, Jacob; Conley, Daniel J.

    2017-01-01

    the last 50–100 years. Secondly, the Baltic Sea is naturally susceptible to nutrient enrichment due to a combination of long retention times and stratification restricting ventilation of deep waters. Here, based on a unique data set collated from research activities and long-term monitoring programs, we......Much of the Baltic Sea is currently classified as ‘affected by eutrophication’. The causes for this are twofold. First, current levels of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities exceed the natural processing capacity with an accumulation of nutrients in the Baltic Sea over...

  15. AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzer, Andrea; de Meij, Alexander; Yoon, Jongmin; Astitha, Marina

    2016-04-01

    The trend of aerosol optical depth (AOD) between 2001 and 2010 is estimated globally and regionally from remote sensed observations by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and SeaWIFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) satellite sensor. The resulting trends have been compared to model results from the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry {[1]}), model. Although interannual variability is applied only to anthropogenic and biomass-burning emissions, the model is able to quantitatively reproduce the AOD trends as observed by MODIS, while some discrepancies are found when compared to MISR and SeaWIFS. An additional numerical simulation with the same model was performed, neglecting any temporal change in the emissions, i.e. with no interannual variability for any emission source. It is shown that decreasing AOD trends over the US and Europe are due to the decrease in the (anthropogenic) emissions. On contrary over the Sahara Desert and the Middle East region, the meteorological/dynamical changes in the last decade play a major role in driving the AOD trends. Further, over Southeast Asia, both meteorology and emissions changes are equally important in defining AOD trends {[2]}. Finally, decomposing the regional AOD trends into individual aerosol components reveals that the soluble components are the most dominant contributors to the total AOD, as their influence on the total AOD is enhanced by the aerosol water content. {[1]}: Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Pozzer, A., Sander, R., Tost, H., Riede, H., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., and Kern, B.: Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 717-752, doi:10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010. {[2]}: Pozzer, A., de Meij, A., Yoon, J., Tost, H., Georgoulias, A. K., and Astitha, M.: AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5521-5535, doi:10.5194/acp-15-5521-2015, 2015.

  16. Contemporary sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazenave, Anny; Llovel, William

    2010-01-01

    Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes has considerably improved in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing observations have become available. Here we report on most recent results on contemporary sea level rise. We first present sea level observations from tide gauges over the twentieth century and from satellite altimetry since the early 1990s. We next discuss the most recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on timescales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion of the oceans, land ice mass loss, and land water-storage change. We show that for the 1993-2007 time span, the sum of climate-related contributions (2.85 +/- 0.35 mm year(-1)) is only slightly less than altimetry-based sea level rise (3.3 +/- 0.4 mm year(-1)): approximately 30% of the observed rate of rise is due to ocean thermal expansion and approximately 55% results from land ice melt. Recent acceleration in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets increases the latter contribution up to 80% for the past five years. We also review the main causes of regional variability in sea level trends: The dominant contribution results from nonuniform changes in ocean thermal expansion.

  17. Chemistry of the sea-surface microlayer. 3. Studies on the nutrient chemistry of the northern Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Singbal, S.Y.S.; Narvekar, P.V.; Nagarajan, R.

    Nutrients showed enrichment in the surface microlayer compared to those in sub-surface water and there was a decreasing trend in the enrichment factor from nearshore to offshore in Northern Arabian Sea. The nutrient concentrations were correlated...

  18. Innovative sub sea pipeline maintenance in line with emerging offshore trends and maintenance safety standards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, George [T.D. Williamson, Inc., Tulsa, OK (United States)

    2012-07-01

    attached to the Sub sea 1200RC machine and operated from an on-board laptop. This results in a lightweight hot tap frame and total direct control of the cutting process. The machine has been designed, built, tested and successfully deployed on a recent sub sea tap for a pipeline operator in Asia. This technology promotes the 'separation of man and machine' proposition. It reduces risk by reducing diver exposure, enhances safety, provides direct control and visibility from a laptop and facilitates fast and accurate execution. Ultimately, the concept may be extended toward onshore hot tap applications in risky environments calling for remotely operated systems. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a major new contribution in terms of knowledge and expertise to the offshore pipeline maintenance environment. It will detail the process and procedures, as well as delve into a customer application and the results. Part of the details will include areas of testing of the equipment, conditions in which it is designed to perform and how the needs of the pipeline operators were incorporated into the execution of the project. The results of the operation are meant to demonstrate how technology is progressing in line with emerging offshore trends, especially offshore exploration in Brazil. (author)

  19. Population genetic structure of the mantis shrimp Oratosquilla oratoria (Crustacea: Squillidae) in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Mei; Li, Xinzheng

    2017-09-01

    The mantis shrimp Oratosquilla oratoria is an ecologically and economically important species in the Western Pacific. In present study, the population genetic structure of Oratosquilla oratoria from the Yellow Sea and East China Sea was examined with mitochondrial DNA control region sequences. In total, 394 samples were collected from 18 locations and 102 haplotypes were obtained. For the Yellow Sea, the overall nucleotide diversity and haplotype diversity were 0.006 9 and 0.946 8, respectively; while across all the East China Sea locations, the overall nucleotide diversity and haplotype diversity were 0.027 94 and 0.979 0, respectively. The results of AMOVA and pairwise F ST (0.145 2, P China Sea populations of O. oratoria. However, neither the neighbor-joining tree nor haplotype network showed clades with geographic pattern, which indicated considerable gene flow was existed between the Yellow Sea and East China Sea, and supporting the high larval dispersal ability in this species. Mismatch distribution analysis and neutrality tests suggested that O. oratoria has undergone population expansion event, and the Pleistocene glacial cycles might have an impact on the historical demography of O. oratoria. The genetic information obtained in this study can provide useful information for sustainable improvements for capture fisheries management strategies.

  20. Climate trends across South Africa since 1980

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2018-04-03

    Apr 3, 2018 ... ISSN 1816-7950 (Online) = Water SA Vol. ... South Atlantic and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures ... Understanding trends in climate can assist resource management and determine possible economic impacts. ... Reanalysis systems that augment ... future climate under rising greenhouse gases.

  1. Improved Chlorophyll-a Algorithm for the Satellite Ocean Color Data in the Northern Bering Sea and Southern Chukchi Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sang Heon; Ryu, Jongseong; Park, Jung-woo; Lee, Dabin; Kwon, Jae-Il; Zhao, Jingping; Son, SeungHyun

    2018-03-01

    coastal waters. Strong interannual variations are shown in Chl-a concentrations in all areas. There is a slightly increasing trend in Chl-a concentrations in the northern Bering Strait (SECS). This increasing trend may be related to recent increases in the extent and duration of open waters due to the early break up of sea ice and the late formation of sea ice in the Chukchi Sea.

  2. GLOBAL CHANGES IN THE SEA ICE COVER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Comiso

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The trends in the sea ice cover in the two hemispheres have been observed to be asymmetric with the rate of change in the Arctic being negative at −3.8 % per decade while that of the Antarctic is positive at 1.7 % per decade. These observations are confirmed in this study through analyses of a more robust data set that has been enhanced for better consistency and updated for improved statistics. With reports of anthropogenic global warming such phenomenon appears physically counter intuitive but trend studies of surface temperature over the same time period show the occurrence of a similar asymmetry. Satellite surface temperature data show that while global warming is strong and dominant in the Arctic, it is relatively minor in the Antarctic with the trends in sea ice covered areas and surrounding ice free regions observed to be even negative. A strong correlation of ice extent with surface temperature is observed, especially during the growth season, and the observed trends in the sea ice cover are coherent with the trends in surface temperature. The trend of global averages of the ice cover is negative but modest and is consistent and compatible with the positive but modest trend in global surface temperature. A continuation of the trend would mean the disappearance of summer ice by the end of the century but modelling projections indicate that the summer ice could be salvaged if anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are kept constant at the current level.

  3. The South Pole and the Ross Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    This image shows a rare clear view of the South Pole (lower right) and the Ross Sea, Antarctica. The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) acquired the scene on December 26, 2001. The geographic South Pole is located in the center of Antarctica, at an altitude of 2,900 meters (9,300 feet). It rests on a continent-wide ice sheet that is 2,870 m thick, with the underlying bedrock only 30 m (98 feet) above sea level. The ice underlying the South Pole is as much as 140,000 years old, and is currently accumulating at about 82 cm (32 inches) per year. Roughly 2,500 km (1,550 miles) away is the green water of the Ross Sea, which indicates the presence of large numbers of phytoplankton. This is a highly productive part of the world's oceans. Also note the ice gathered around McMurdo Sound, seen toward the lefthand shoreline of the Ross Sea, at the edge of the Ross Ice Shelf. According to National Science Foundation researchers, this ice is making it difficult for penguins to reach their food supply. Separating the continental Antarctic ice sheet from the Ross Sea are the Queen Maud Mountains and the Ross Ice Shelf. Image courtesy the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE

  4. Cyclone trends constrain monsoon variability during late Oligocene sea level highstands (Kachchh Basin, NW India)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuter, M.; Piller, W. E.; Harzhauser, M.; Kroh, A.

    2013-09-01

    Climate change has an unknown impact on tropical cyclones and the Asian monsoon. Herein we present a sequence of fossil shell beds from the shallow-marine Maniyara Fort Formation (Kachcch Basin) as a recorder of tropical cyclone activity along the NW Indian coast during the late Oligocene warming period (~ 27-24 Ma). Proxy data providing information about the atmospheric circulation dynamics over the Indian subcontinent at this time are important since it corresponds to a major climate reorganization in Asia that ends up with the establishment of the modern Asian monsoon system at the Oligocene-Miocene boundary. The vast shell concentrations are comprised of a mixture of parautochthonous and allochthonous assemblages indicating storm-generated sediment transport from deeper to shallow water during third-order sea level highstands. Three distinct skeletal assemblages were distinguished, each recording a relative storm wave base. (1) A shallow storm wave base is shown by nearshore molluscs, reef corals and Clypeaster echinoids; (2) an intermediate storm wave base depth is indicated by lepidocyclinid foraminifers, Eupatagus echinoids and corallinacean algae; and (3) a deep storm wave base is represented by an Amussiopecten bivalve-Schizaster echinoid assemblage. These wave base depth estimates were used for the reconstruction of long-term tropical storm intensity during the late Oligocene. The development and intensification of cyclones over the recent Arabian Sea is primarily limited by the atmospheric monsoon circulation and strength of the associated vertical wind shear. Therefore, since the topographic boundary conditions for the Indian monsoon already existed in the late Oligocene, the reconstructed long-term cyclone trends were interpreted to reflect monsoon variability during the initiation of the Asian monsoon system. Our results imply an active monsoon over the Eastern Tethys at ~ 26 Ma followed by a period of monsoon weakening during the peak of the late

  5. Methodological basis of the analysis and forecasting of trend-seasonal fluctuations in navigation maintenance in the sea of Аzov

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Андрій Олександрович Лисий

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The necessity to use trend-seasonal processes analysis and forecasting to manage seaports activities have been shown in the article. The statistic data showing the sea of Аzov ports freight turnover essential reduction in ice conditions is cited. The cited data has shown that in ice conditions the Azov sea ports freight turnover reduces considerably; in case of poor weather conditions and storm warnings the vessels arriving at ports can’t be loaded and unloaded in time. The concept of seasonal prevalence which is understood as regular periodical changes in weather conditions resulting from season change has been defined. Seasonal fluctuations are rather complicated -they are generated in one navigation area, transmitted to others, transformed and keep moving on calling forth subsequent fluctuations and interfering with sea transportation. From the point of view of this analysis seasonal prevalence is expressed in the form of oscillatory processes. In statistical researches seasonal prevalence indices and factors are used to describe seasonal fluctuations. Various models forecasting seasonal time series have been studied. A special approach to forming the information base and, considering all the activities of the port in the ice conditions, meeting the demands of continuous planning and regulation has been developed. Statistical forecasting including all stages of dynamic series processing has been offered and improved: the analysis of seasonal processes and forecasting of a seasonal wave. Such approach to forecasting can be applied to a wide range of the problems concerning the scheduling of fleet and ports

  6. Estimating trends of population decline in long-lived marine species in the Mediterranean Sea based on fishers' perceptions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesc Maynou

    Full Text Available We conducted interviews of a representative sample of 106 retired fishers in Italy, Spain and Greece, asking specific questions about the trends they perceived in dolphin and shark abundances between 1940 and 1999 (in three 20 year periods compared to the present abundance. The large marine fauna studied were not target species of the commercial fleet segment interviewed (trawl fishery. The fishers were asked to rank the perceived abundance in each period into qualitative ordinal classes based on two indicators: frequency of sightings and frequency of catches (incidental or intentional of each taxonomic group. The statistical analysis of the survey results showed that both incidental catches and the sighting frequency of dolphins have decreased significantly over the 60+ years of the study period (except for in Greece due to the recent population increase. This shows that fishers' perceptions are in agreement with the declining population trends detected by scientists. Shark catches were also perceived to have diminished since the early 1940s for all species. Other long-lived Mediterranean marine fauna (monk seals, whales were at very low levels in the second half of the 20(th century and no quantitative data could be obtained. Our study supports the results obtained in the Mediterranean and other seas that show the rapid disappearance (over a few decades of marine fauna. We show that appropriately designed questionnaires help provide a picture of animal abundance in the past through the valuable perceptions of fishers. This information can be used to complement scientific sources or in some cases be taken as the only information source for establishing population trends in the abundance of sensitive species.

  7. Annual mean sea level and its sensitivity to wind climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerkema, Theo; Duran Matute, Matias

    2017-04-01

    Changes in relative mean sea level affect coastal areas in various ways, such as the risk of flooding, the evolution of barrier island systems, or the development of salt marshes. Long-term trends in these changes are partly masked by variability on shorter time scales. Some of this variability, for instance due to wind waves and tides (with the exception of long-period tides), is easily averaged out. In contrast, inter-annual variability is found to be irregular and large, of the order of several decimeters, as is evident from tide gauge records. This is why the climatic trend, typically of a few millimeters per year, can only be reliably identified by examining a record that is long enough to outweigh the inter-annual and decadal variabilities. In this presentation we examine the relation between the annual wind conditions from meteorological records and annual mean sea level along the Dutch coast. To do this, we need reliable and consistent long-term wind records. Some wind records from weather stations in the Netherlands date back to the 19th century, but they are unsuitable for trend analysis because of changes in location, height, surroundings, instrument type or protocol. For this reason, we will use only more recent, homogeneous wind records, from the past two decades. The question then is whether such a relatively short record is sufficient to find a convincing relation with annual mean sea level. It is the purpose of this work to demonstrate that the answer is positive and to suggest methods to find and exploit such a relation. We find that at the Dutch coast, southwesterly winds are dominant in the wind climate, but the west-east direction stands out as having the highest correlation with annual mean sea level. For different stations in the Dutch Wadden Sea and along the coast, we find a qualitatively similar pattern, although the precise values of the correlations vary. The inter-annual variability of mean sea level can already be largely explained by

  8. Pre-collisional geodynamics of the Mediterranean Sea: the Mediterranean Ridge and the Tyrrhenian Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Chaumillon

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available Today the Mediterranean Sea consists of a series of small-sized and almost geographically disconnected oceanic or continental crust rooted marine basins. It is also an area almost totally surrounded by mountain ranges, which chiefly belong to the alpine realm. This overall geodynamic setting results from a long term convergence between the two major, African and European, plates. Previous collisions have led to the edification of surrounding chains, while subduction and new-collisional processes tend to create new extensional back-arc basins and wide tectonized accretionary prisms. In this paper we briefly outline the most recent and almost land-locked back-arc basin that has developed in the Mediterranean,i.e., the Tyrrhenian Sea, and the Mediterranean Ridge, which may be regarded as a collisional sedimentary wedge predating a future mountain chain.

  9. Spatial variations in trace element concentrations of the sea urchin, Paracentrotus lividus, a first reference study in the Mediterranean Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ternengo, S; Marengo, M; El Idrissi, O; Yepka, J; Pasqualini, V; Gobert, S

    2018-04-01

    A study on Trace Elements (TE) from sea urchin gonads has been conducted in the western Mediterranean Sea. Contamination data were used to determine a Trace Method Pollution Index (TEPI). TE concentrations varied considerably depending on the location of the sampling stations. The results showed that five trace elements (Zn, Fe, As, Al, Cu) are ubiquitous. The geographical area considered (Corsica) represents an important range of environmental conditions and types of pressure that can be found in the western Mediterranean Sea. TEPI was used to classify the studied sites according to their degree of contamination and allowed reliable comparison of TE contamination between local and international sites. TE contamination of the western Mediterranean Sea displayed a north-to-south gradient, from the Italian coasts down through the insular Corsican coasts to the north African littoral. Due to the increasing environmental pressure on the Mediterranean Sea, a regular monitoring of TE levels in marine organisms is necessary to prevent any further environmental deterioration. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Changes and Impacts (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nghiem, S. V.

    2013-12-01

    The extent of springtime Arctic perennial sea ice, important to preconditioning summer melt and to polar sunrise photochemistry, continues its precipitous reduction in the last decade marked by a record low in 2012, as the Bromine, Ozone, and Mercury Experiment (BROMEX) was conducted around Barrow, Alaska, to investigate impacts of sea ice reduction on photochemical processes, transport, and distribution in the polar environment. In spring 2013, there was further loss of perennial sea ice, as it was not observed in the ocean region adjacent to the Alaskan north coast, where there was a stretch of perennial sea ice in 2012 in the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea. In contrast to the rapid and extensive loss of sea ice in the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has a trend of a slight increase in the past three decades. Given the significant variability in time and in space together with uncertainties in satellite observations, the increasing trend of Antarctic sea ice may arguably be considered as having a low confidence level; however, there was no overall reduction of Antarctic sea ice extent anywhere close to the decreasing rate of Arctic sea ice. There exist publications presenting various factors driving changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. After a short review of these published factors, new observations and atmospheric, oceanic, hydrological, and geological mechanisms contributed to different behaviors of sea ice changes in the Arctic and Antarctic are presented. The contribution from of hydrologic factors may provide a linkage to and enhance thermal impacts from lower latitudes. While geological factors may affect the sensitivity of sea ice response to climate change, these factors can serve as the long-term memory in the system that should be exploited to improve future projections or predictions of sea ice changes. Furthermore, similarities and differences in chemical impacts of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice changes are discussed. Understanding sea ice changes and

  11. Virulence Profiles of Vibrio vulnificus in German Coastal Waters, a Comparison of North Sea and Baltic Sea Isolates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadja Bier

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Vibrio vulnificus is a halophilic bacterium of coastal environments known for sporadically causing severe foodborne or wound infections. Global warming is expected to lead to a rising occurrence of V. vulnificus and an increasing incidence of human infections in Northern Europe. So far, infections in Germany were exclusively documented for the Baltic Sea coast, while no cases from the North Sea region have been reported. Regional variations in the prevalence of infections may be influenced by differences in the pathogenicity of V. vulnificus populations in both areas. This study aimed to compare the distribution of virulence-associated traits and genotypes among 101 V. vulnificus isolates from the Baltic Sea and North Sea in order to assess their pathogenicity potential. Furthermore, genetic relationships were examined by multilocus sequence typing (MLST. A high diversity of MLST sequences (74 sequence types and differences regarding the presence of six potential pathogenicity markers were observed in the V. vulnificus populations of both areas. Strains with genotypes and markers associated with pathogenicity are not restricted to a particular geographic region. This indicates that lack of reported cases in the North Sea region is not caused by the absence of potentially pathogenic strains.

  12. PNG Education System: Equity Trends and Comparisons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheret, Michael

    This paper identifies and discusses inequities in the educational system of Papua New Guinea (PNG). It begins by explaining the use of the Gini coefficient as an equity index, and then discusses inequities and equity trends in four concern areas: geographic distribution of formal education between provinces; educational achievement; distribution…

  13. Key trends in environmental advertising across 30 years in National Geographic magazine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahern, Lee; Bortree, Denise Sevick; Smith, Alexandra Nutter

    2013-05-01

    This longitudinal retrospective case study describes the sponsors, ad types, frames and message factors in green advertising over three decades in National Geographic magazine, the bellwether nature publication in the USA. In addition to providing a clearer picture of the extent and nature of environmental strategic messaging over three decades, results provide empirical support for theoretical relationships between the level of green advertising and economic indicators. After providing historical and theoretical context, detailed results are presented for both overall and longitudinal analysis. Limitations and implications for future research are discussed.

  14. Societal, land cover and climatic controls on river nutrient flows into the Baltic Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saaltink, R.; Velde, van der Y.; Dekker, S.C.; Lyon, S.W.; Dahlke, H.E.

    2014-01-01

    Study region River basins draining into the Baltic Sea, known as the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB). Study focus Dramatic shifts in water quality have been observed in the Baltic Sea in past decades. This study investigated the spatial distribution of trends in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in

  15. Societal, land cover and climatic controls on river nutrient flows into the Baltic Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saaltink, Rémon; van der Velde, Ype; Dekker, Stefan; Lyon, Steve W.; Dahlke, Helen E.

    Study region River basins draining into the Baltic Sea, known as the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB). Study focus Dramatic shifts in water quality have been observed in the Baltic Sea in past decades. This study investigated the spatial distribution of trends in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in

  16. Societal, land cover and climatic controls on river nutrient flows into the Baltic Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saaltink, Rémon; van der Velde, Ype; Dekker, Stefan C.; Lyon, Steve W.; Dahlke, Helen E.

    2014-01-01

    Study region: River basins draining into the Baltic Sea, known as the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB). Study focus: Dramatic shifts in water quality have been observed in the Baltic Sea in past decades. This study investigated the spatial distribution of trends in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in

  17. Long-term trends at the Boknis Eck time series station (Baltic Sea, 1957–2013: does climate change counteract the decline in eutrophication?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. T. Lennartz

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The Boknis Eck (BE time series station, initiated in 1957, is one of the longest-operated time series stations worldwide. We present the first statistical evaluation of a data set of nine physical, chemical and biological parameters in the period of 1957–2013. In the past three to five decades, all of the measured parameters underwent significant long-term changes. Most striking is an ongoing decline in bottom water oxygen concentration, despite a significant decrease of nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations. Temperature-enhanced oxygen consumption in the bottom water and a prolongation of the stratification period are discussed as possible reasons for the ongoing oxygen decline despite declining eutrophication. Observations at the BE station were compared with model output of the Kiel Baltic Sea Ice Ocean Model (BSIOM. Reproduced trends were in good agreement with observed trends for temperature and oxygen, but generally the oxygen concentration at the bottom has been overestimated.

  18. The changing Chinese SEA indicator guidelines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, Jingjing; Christensen, Per; Kørnøv, Lone

    2014-01-01

    general trends in the development of SEA and other environmental policies in a recent, Chinese context. Beside a more top-down, intentional approach specifying indicators for different sectors based on Chinese experiences from the preceding years, another significant change, following the new guidelines...

  19. Geographic extent and variation of a coral reef trophic cascade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClanahan, T R; Muthiga, N A

    2016-07-01

    Trophic cascades caused by a reduction in predators of sea urchins have been reported in Indian Ocean and Caribbean coral reefs. Previous studies have been constrained by their site-specific nature and limited spatial replication, which has produced site and species-specific understanding that can potentially preclude larger community-organization nuances and generalizations. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the extent and variability of the cascade community in response to fishing across ~23° of latitude and longitude in coral reefs in the southwestern Indian Ocean. The taxonomic composition of predators of sea urchins, the sea urchin community itself, and potential effects of changing grazer abundance on the calcifying benthic organisms were studied in 171 unique coral reef sites. We found that geography and habitat were less important than the predator-prey relationships. There were seven sea urchin community clusters that aligned with a gradient of declining fishable biomass and the abundance of a key predator, the orange-lined triggerfish (Balistapus undulatus). The orange-lined triggerfish dominated where sea urchin numbers and diversity were low but the relative abundance of wrasses and emperors increased where sea urchin numbers were high. Two-thirds of the study sites had high sea urchin biomass (>2,300 kg/ha) and could be dominated by four different sea urchin species, Echinothrix diadema, Diadema savignyi, D. setosum, and Echinometra mathaei, depending on the community of sea urchin predators, geographic location, and water depth. One-third of the sites had low sea urchin biomass and diversity and were typified by high fish biomass, predators of sea urchins, and herbivore abundance, representing lightly fished communities with generally higher cover of calcifying algae. Calcifying algal cover was associated with low urchin abundance where as noncalcifying fleshy algal cover was not clearly associated with herbivore abundance. Fishing of the orange

  20. Scaling the Baltic Sea environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Henrik Gutzon

    2008-01-01

    of this development, this article suggests that environmental politics critically depend on the delineation of relatively bounded spaces that identify and situate particular environmental concerns as spatial objects for politics. These spaces are not simply determined by ‘nature' or some environmental......The Baltic Sea environment has since the early 1970s passed through several phases of spatial objectification in which the ostensibly well-defined semi-enclosed sea has been framed and reframed as a geographical object for intergovernmental environmental politics. Based on a historical analysis......-scientific logic, but should rather be seen as temporal outcomes of scale framing processes, processes that are accentuated by contemporary conceptions of the environment (or nature) in terms of multi-scalar ecosystems. This has implications for how an environmental concern is perceived and politically addressed....

  1. Calibration Uncertainty in Ocean Color Satellite Sensors and Trends in Long-term Environmental Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turpie, Kevin R.; Eplee, Robert E., Jr.; Franz, Bryan A.; Del Castillo, Carlos

    2014-01-01

    Launched in late 2011, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) spacecraft is being evaluated by NASA to determine whether this sensor can continue the ocean color data record established through the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). To this end, Goddard Space Flight Center generated evaluation ocean color data products using calibration techniques and algorithms established by NASA during the SeaWiFS and MODIS missions. The calibration trending was subjected to some initial sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Here we present an introductory assessment of how the NASA-produced time series of ocean color is influenced by uncertainty in trending instrument response over time. The results help quantify the uncertainty in measuring regional and global biospheric trends in the ocean using satellite remote sensing, which better define the roles of such records in climate research.

  2. Comparison of two Centennial-scale Sea Surface Temperature Datasets in the Regional Climate Change Studies of the China Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qingyuan, Wang; Yanan, Wang; Yiwei, Liu

    2017-08-01

    Two widely used sea surface temperature (SST) datasets are compared in this article. We examine characteristics in the climate variability of SST in the China Seas.Two series yielded almost the same warming trend for 1890-2013 (0.7-0.8°C/100 years). However, HadISST1 series shows much stronger warming trends during 1961-2013 and 1981-2013 than that of COBE SST2 series. The disagreement between data sets was marked after 1981. For the hiatus period 1998-2013, the cooling trends of HadISST1 series is much lower than that of COBE SST2. These differences between the two datasets are possibly caused by the different observations which are incorporated to fill with data-sparse regions since 1982. Those findings illustrate that there are some uncertainties in the estimate of SST warming patterns in certain regions. The results also indicate that the temporal and spatial deficiency of observed data is still the biggest handicap for analyzing multi-scale SST characteristics in regional area.

  3. Long-term trends in nutrient budgets of the western Dutch Wadden Sea (1976–2012)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jung, A.S; Brinkman, A.G.; Folmer, E.O.; Herman, P.M.J.; van der Veer, H.W.; Philippart, C.J.M.

    2017-01-01

    Long-term field observations of nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P] concentrations were used to construct nutrient budgets for the western Dutch Wadden Sea between 1976 and 2012. Nutrients come into the western Dutch Wadden Sea via river runoff, through exchange with the coastal zone of the North Sea,

  4. DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL DENTAL MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronica BULAT

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the key trends of the market, and segments the global dental equipment and consumables market by components and into various geographic regions in way of market size. It discusses the key market drivers, main players, restraints and opportunities of the global dental equipment and consumables market.

  5. Global Search Trends of Oral Problems using Google Trends from 2004 to 2016: An Exploratory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patthi, Basavaraj; Kumar, Jishnu Krishna; Singla, Ashish; Gupta, Ritu; Prasad, Monika; Ali, Irfan; Dhama, Kuldeep; Niraj, Lav Kumar

    2017-09-01

    Oral diseases are pandemic cause of morbidity with widespread geographic distribution. This technology based era has brought about easy knowledge transfer than traditional dependency on information obtained from family doctors. Hence, harvesting this system of trends can aid in oral disease quantification. To conduct an exploratory analysis of the changes in internet search volumes of oral diseases by using Google Trends © (GT © ). GT © were utilized to provide real world facts based on search terms related to categories, interest by region and interest over time. Time period chosen was from January 2004 to December 2016. Five different search terms were explored and compared based on the highest relative search volumes along with comma separated value files to obtain an insight into highest search traffic. The search volume measured over the time span noted the term "Dental caries" to be the most searched in Japan, "Gingivitis" in Jordan, "Oral Cancer" in Taiwan, "No Teeth" in Australia, "HIV symptoms" in Zimbabwe, "Broken Teeth" in United Kingdom, "Cleft palate" in Philippines, "Toothache" in Indonesia and the comparison of top five searched terms provided the "Gingivitis" with highest search volume. The results from the present study offers an insight into a competent tool that can analyse and compare oral diseases over time. The trend research platform can be used on emerging diseases and their drift in geographic population with great acumen. This tool can be utilized in forecasting, modulating marketing strategies and planning disability limitation techniques.

  6. Coastal sea radiation environment and biodiversity protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang Senming; Shang Zhaorong

    2009-01-01

    This paper characterizes the types, trend and the potential of radiation contamination in the sea against the development of nuclear power stations. Combined with the present status of radioactive contamination and marine biodiversity in China seas, it is pointed out that non-human radiation protection should be considered on the bases of marine biodiversity protection. Besides, the reference species for marine radiation protection and some viewpoints on the work of marine radiation protection in China are pro- posed. (authors)

  7. Arctic Sea Level During the Satellite Altimetry Era

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carret, A.; Johannessen, J. A.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2017-01-01

    Results of the sea-level budget in the high latitudes (up to 80°N) and the Arctic Ocean during the satellite altimetry era. We investigate the closure of the sea-level budget since 2002 using two altimetry sea-level datasets based on the Envisat waveform retracking: temperature and salinity data....... However, in terms of regional average over the region ranging from 66°N to 80°N, the steric component contributes little to the observed sea-level trend, suggesting a dominant mass contribution in the Arctic region. This is confirmed by GRACE-based ocean mass time series that agree well with the altimetry......-based sea-level time series. Direct estimate of the mass component is not possible prior to GRACE. Thus, we estimated the mass contribution from the difference between the altimetry-based sea level and the steric component. We also investigate the coastal sea level with tide gauge records. Twenty coupled...

  8. A study on Sea Level Change for Coast of Korean Peninsular from Global Warming and Its Influences I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, K.W.; Kim, J.H. [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2001-12-01

    The Third Assessment Report(2001) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) concluded that the global warming will be accelerated during the 21st century due to the human activities. The projected warming will increase the steric sea level rise which have large adverse effects on the natural and human systems in the coastal zone. This study intends to assess the sea level change and potential impacts of the future sea level rise on the coastal zone of the Korean Peninsula in which much socioeconomic activities have been already occurred. The contents of the present study include reviews on climate change and its impact, assessments of the current and future sea level change in the global scale and seas ne,ar Korea, and impact assessment methodology. The second year study(2002) will be focused on the impact assessment on the coastal zone of the Korea, especially on the inundation problem on human dimension due to the steric sea level rise, storm surge, and tide. Based on the tide gauge data, IPCC(2001) assessed the global average sea level rise during the 20th century is in the range of 10{approx}20cm, which is higher than that of 19th century. The contributing elements to the sea level rise are in the order of ocean thermal expansion, melting of glacier, mass balance change of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and surface and ground water storage and permafrost change. The satellite altimeter data during l990s shows higher trend than the mean trend of tide gauge data during 20th century. The recent high trend of the sea level rise by the altimetry is not clear whether it represents the recent acceleration of the global sea level the differences of the two observation methods, or short observation period of altimetry. In the 21st century, the global mean sea level is projected to increase much due to the acceleration of the warming. Based on the 35 IPCC emission scenarios, the sea level rise in the 21st century will be in the range of 9{approx}88

  9. Sea level anomaly in the North Atlantic and seas around Europe: Long-term variability and response to North Atlantic teleconnection patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Isabel; Lorenzo, M Nieves; Lázaro, Clara; Fernandes, M Joana; Bastos, Luísa

    2017-12-31

    Sea level anomaly (SLA), provided globally by satellite altimetry, is considered a valuable proxy for detecting long-term changes of the global ocean, as well as short-term and annual variations. In this manuscript, monthly sea level anomaly grids for the period 1993-2013 are used to characterise the North Atlantic Ocean variability at inter-annual timescales and its response to the North Atlantic main patterns of atmospheric circulation variability (North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia, Scandinavian and Polar/Eurasia) and main driven factors as sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and wind fields. SLA variability and long-term trends are analysed for the North Atlantic Ocean and several sub-regions (North, Baltic and Mediterranean and Black seas, Bay of Biscay extended to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, and the northern North Atlantic Ocean), depicting the SLA fluctuations at basin and sub-basin scales, aiming at representing the regions of maximum sea level variability. A significant correlation between SLA and the different phases of the teleconnection patterns due to the generated winds, sea level pressure and sea surface temperature anomalies, with a strong variability on temporal and spatial scales, has been identified. Long-term analysis reveals the existence of non-stationary inter-annual SLA fluctuations in terms of the temporal scale. Spectral density analysis has shown the existence of long-period signals in the SLA inter-annual component, with periods of ~10, 5, 4 and 2years, depending on the analysed sub-region. Also, a non-uniform increase in sea level since 1993 is identified for all sub-regions, with trend values between 2.05mm/year, for the Bay of Biscay region, and 3.98mm/year for the Baltic Sea (no GIA correction considered). The obtained results demonstrated a strong link between the atmospheric patterns and SLA, as well as strong long-period fluctuations of this variable in spatial and

  10. The exclusive economic zone debates in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and fisheries

    OpenAIRE

    Başeren, Bayram Öztürk and Sertaç Hami; Öztürk, Bayram

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Delimitation and proclamations of the Exclusive Economic Zone in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea is important issue for several reasons for the bordering nations. The Mediterranean Sea is unique case due to geographical characteristics and some conflicts already existed on maritime delimitations among some nations. It’s a matter of fact that; all States will have to reach agreement, regarding proclamations of the delimitation of the Exclusive Economic Zone in the Eastern Mediterranean ...

  11. The exclusive economic zone debates in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and fisheries

    OpenAIRE

    Başeren, Bayram Öztürk and Sertaç Hami

    2008-01-01

    Abstract Delimitation and proclamations of the Exclusive Economic Zone in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea is important issue for several reasons for the bordering nations. The Mediterranean Sea is unique case due to geographical characteristics and some conflicts already existed on maritime delimitations among some nations. It’s a matter of fact that; all States will have to reach agreement, regarding proclamations of the delimitation of the Exclusive Economic Zone in the Eastern Mediterranean ...

  12. Revisiting global mean sea level budget closure : Preliminary results from an integrative study within ESA's Climate Change Initiative -Sea level Budget Closure-Climate Change Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palanisamy, H.; Cazenave, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    The global mean sea level budget is revisited over two time periods: the entire altimetry era, 1993-2015 and the Argo/GRACE era, 2003-2015 using the version '0' of sea level components estimated by the SLBC-CCI teams. The SLBC-CCI is an European Space Agency's project on sea level budget closure using CCI products. Over the entire altimetry era, the sea level budget was performed as the sum of steric and mass components that include contributions from total land water storage, glaciers, ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) and total water vapor content. Over the Argo/GRACE era, it was performed as the sum of steric and GRACE based ocean mass. Preliminary budget analysis performed over the altimetry era (1993-2015) results in a trend value of 2.83 mm/yr. On comparison with the observed altimetry-based global mean sea level trend over the same period (3.03 ± 0.5 mm/yr), we obtain a residual of 0.2 mm/yr. In spite of a residual of 0.2 mm/yr, the sea level budget result obtained over the altimetry era is very promising as this has been performed using the version '0' of the sea level components. Furthermore, uncertainties are not yet included in this study as uncertainty estimation for each sea level component is currently underway. Over the Argo/GRACE era (2003-2015), the trend estimated from the sum of steric and GRACE ocean mass amounts to 2.63 mm/yr while that observed by satellite altimetry is 3.37 mm/yr, thereby leaving a residual of 0.7 mm/yr. Here an ensemble GRACE ocean mass data (mean of various available GRACE ocean mass data) was used for the estimation. Using individual GRACE data results in a residual range of 0.5 mm/yr -1.1 mm/yr. Investigations are under way to determine the cause of the vast difference between the observed sea level and the sea level obtained from steric and GRACE ocean mass. One main suspect is the impact of GRACE data gaps on sea level budget analysis due to lack of GRACE data over several months since 2011. The current action plan

  13. Career Preparedness and School Achievement of Portuguese Children: Longitudinal Trend Articulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria do Céu Taveira

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Social Cognitive Career Theory suggests that students' preparedness for the school-to-work transition is a developmental process. Middle school children explore various careers, obtain feedback about their academic progress, and develop career self-efficacy and outcome expectations. These processes advance provisional educational/occupational goals. The literature has suggested articulations between career and academic development and how both vary across demographic characteristics, but longitudinal studies linking these processes are scarce. This study tested articulations between career preparedness and academic achievement during middle school years and employed gender and geographical location as potential moderators affecting the linkage between career and school domains. Participants included 429 children (47.8% girls from northern (69.5% and central Portugal (30.5% followed across four occasions of measurement (MageWave1 = 10.23, SD = 0.50. Data was collected with school records, the Multidimensional Scales of Perceived Self-Efficacy, Career Exploratory Outcome Expectations Scale, Childhood Career Exploration Inventory and Childhood Career Development Scale. Average and orthnormalized linear, quadratic and cubic trends were computed. Pearson correlation coefficients suggested positive and statistically significant associations between career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement average trends. Career planning and self-efficacy expectations were negatively associated with academic achievement quadratic trends. Multiple linear regression models suggested that career exploratory outcome expectations and career planning were respectively statistically significant predictors of the average and quadratic trends of academic achievement. Gender moderated the association between the career variables and academic achievement linear trends as well as the relation of career planning and self-efficacy with academic achievement

  14. Secondary radioactive contamination of the Black Sea after Chernobyl accident: recent levels, pathways and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gulin, S.B.; Mirzoyeva, N.Yu.; Egorov, V.N.; Polikarpov, G.G.; Sidorov, I.G.; Proskurnin, V.Yu.

    2013-01-01

    The recent radionuclide measurements have showed that concentrations of the Chernobyl-derived 137 Cs and 90 Sr in the surface Black Sea waters are still relatively high, reaching 56 and 32 Bq m −3 , respectively. This is comparable or even exceeds the pre-Chernobyl levels (∼16 Bq 137 Cs and 22 Bq 90 Sr per m 3 as the basin-wide average values). The measurements have revealed that the Black Sea continues to receive Chernobyl radionuclides, particularly 90 Sr, by the runoff from the Dnieper River. An additional source of 90 Sr and 137 Cs was found in the area adjacent to the Kerch Strait that connects the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. This may be caused by the inflow of the contaminated Dnieper waters, which come to this area through the North-Crimean Canal. The long-term monitoring of 137 Cs and 90 Sr concentration in the Black Sea surface waters and in the benthic brown seaweed Cystoseira sp., in comparison with the earlier published sediment records of the radionuclides, have showed signs of a secondary radioactive contamination, which has started to increase since the late 1990's. This may be the result of the combined effect of a higher input of radionuclides from the rivers in 1995–1999 due to an increased runoff; and a slow transport of the particulate bound radionuclides from the watersheds followed by their desorption in seawater from the riverine suspended matter and remobilization from the sediments adjacent to the river mouths. -- Highlights: • Concentration of 137 Cs and 90 Sr in the Black Sea water is still relatively high. • The Black Sea continues to receive considerable radionuclide amount from the rivers. • The North-Crimean Canal is significant source of the Black Sea radioactivity. • Secondary radioactive contamination of the Black Sea increased in the late 1990's. • Radionuclide remobilization from sediments leads to a further Black Sea pollution

  15. Factors challenging our ability to detect long-term trends in ocean chlorophyll

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Beaulieu

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change is expected to affect the ocean's biological productivity. The most comprehensive information available about the global distribution of contemporary ocean primary productivity is derived from satellite data. Large spatial patchiness and interannual to multidecadal variability in chlorophyll a concentration challenges efforts to distinguish a global, secular trend given satellite records which are limited in duration and continuity. The longest ocean color satellite record comes from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS, which failed in December 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS ocean color sensors are beyond their originally planned operational lifetime. Successful retrieval of a quality signal from the current Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS instrument, or successful launch of the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI expected in 2014 will hopefully extend the ocean color time series and increase the potential for detecting trends in ocean productivity in the future. Alternatively, a potential discontinuity in the time series of ocean chlorophyll a, introduced by a change of instrument without overlap and opportunity for cross-calibration, would make trend detection even more challenging. In this paper, we demonstrate that there are a few regions with statistically significant trends over the ten years of SeaWiFS data, but at a global scale the trend is not large enough to be distinguished from noise. We quantify the degree to which red noise (autocorrelation especially challenges trend detection in these observational time series. We further demonstrate how discontinuities in the time series at various points would affect our ability to detect trends in ocean chlorophyll a. We highlight the importance of maintaining continuous, climate-quality satellite data records for climate-change detection and attribution studies.

  16. Assessment of the environmental status for the North Sea and Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Martin Mørk; Fryer, Rob; Andersen, Jesper H.

    to or at background”, green for “no harmful effect to the environment” and red for unacceptable. The HELCOM goals set out in the Baltic Sea action plan are similar, “concentrations of hazardous substances close to natural levels”, “all fish safe to eat”, and “healthy wildlife”. The assessment criteria used......The two Conventions for the Baltic Sea (Helsinki, HELCOM) and the North Sea (Oslo-Paris, OSPAR) both are in the process of assessing the state of the marine environment and producing Quality Status reports for their regions for publication in 2010. These assessments will be part of the basis...... for Marine Strategy work in the EU. An overview of the time trends and status for metals, PCBs and PAHs in biota and sediment for the convention areas will be presented, and the scientific basis for the assessments and how results from different contaminant groups and wider areas are aggregated...

  17. Automated parameter tuning applied to sea ice in a global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roach, Lettie A.; Tett, Simon F. B.; Mineter, Michael J.; Yamazaki, Kuniko; Rae, Cameron D.

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates the hypothesis that a significant portion of spread in climate model projections of sea ice is due to poorly-constrained model parameters. New automated methods for optimization are applied to historical sea ice in a global coupled climate model (HadCM3) in order to calculate the combination of parameters required to reduce the difference between simulation and observations to within the range of model noise. The optimized parameters result in a simulated sea-ice time series which is more consistent with Arctic observations throughout the satellite record (1980-present), particularly in the September minimum, than the standard configuration of HadCM3. Divergence from observed Antarctic trends and mean regional sea ice distribution reflects broader structural uncertainty in the climate model. We also find that the optimized parameters do not cause adverse effects on the model climatology. This simple approach provides evidence for the contribution of parameter uncertainty to spread in sea ice extent trends and could be customized to investigate uncertainties in other climate variables.

  18. Investigating the impact of the English health inequalities strategy: time trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Ben; Higgerson, James; Whitehead, Margaret

    2017-07-26

    Objective  To investigate whether the English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical health inequalities, compared with trends before and after the strategy. Design  Time trend analysis. Setting  Two groups of lower tier local authorities in England. The most deprived, bottom fifth and the rest of England. Intervention  The English health inequalities strategy-a cross government strategy implemented between 1997 and 2010 to reduce health inequalities in England. Trends in geographical health inequalities were assessed before (1983-2003), during (2004-12), and after (2013-15) the strategy using segmented linear regression. Main outcome measure  Geographical health inequalities measured as the relative and absolute differences in male and female life expectancy at birth between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country. Results  Before the strategy the gap in male and female life expectancy between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country increased at a rate of 0.57 months each year (95% confidence interval 0.40 to 0.74 months) and 0.30 months each year (0.12 to 0.48 months). During the strategy period this trend reversed and the gap in life expectancy for men reduced by 0.91 months each year (0.54 to 1.27 months) and for women by 0.50 months each year (0.15 to 0.86 months). Since the end of the strategy period the inequality gap has increased again at a rate of 0.68 months each year (-0.20 to 1.56 months) for men and 0.31 months each year (-0.26 to 0.88) for women. By 2012 the gap in male life expectancy was 1.2 years smaller (95% confidence interval 0.8 to 1.5 years smaller) and the gap in female life expectancy was 0.6 years smaller (0.3 to 1.0 years smaller) than it would have been if the trends in inequalities before the strategy had continued. Conclusion  The English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical inequalities

  19. Vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure of coastal cities to sea level ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigates the vulnerability of the wastewater collection and disposal infrastructure (i.e. pipelines and manholes, pumping stations and wastewater treatment plants) to sea-level rise in eThekwini Municipality, South Africa. By using geographical information systems (GIS) and a multi-criteria analysis considering ...

  20. Causes for contemporary regional sea level changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stammer, Detlef; Cazenave, Anny; Ponte, Rui M; Tamisiea, Mark E

    2013-01-01

    Regional sea level changes can deviate substantially from those of the global mean, can vary on a broad range of timescales, and in some regions can even lead to a reversal of long-term global mean sea level trends. The underlying causes are associated with dynamic variations in the ocean circulation as part of climate modes of variability and with an isostatic adjustment of Earth's crust to past and ongoing changes in polar ice masses and continental water storage. Relative to the coastline, sea level is also affected by processes such as earthquakes and anthropogenically induced subsidence. Present-day regional sea level changes appear to be caused primarily by natural climate variability. However, the imprint of anthropogenic effects on regional sea level-whether due to changes in the atmospheric forcing or to mass variations in the system-will grow with time as climate change progresses, and toward the end of the twenty-first century, regional sea level patterns will be a superposition of climate variability modes and natural and anthropogenically induced static sea level patterns. Attribution and predictions of ongoing and future sea level changes require an expanded and sustained climate observing system.

  1. The dynamics of biogeographic ranges in the deep sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClain, Craig R; Hardy, Sarah Mincks

    2010-12-07

    Anthropogenic disturbances such as fishing, mining, oil drilling, bioprospecting, warming, and acidification in the deep sea are increasing, yet generalities about deep-sea biogeography remain elusive. Owing to the lack of perceived environmental variability and geographical barriers, ranges of deep-sea species were traditionally assumed to be exceedingly large. In contrast, seamount and chemosynthetic habitats with reported high endemicity challenge the broad applicability of a single biogeographic paradigm for the deep sea. New research benefiting from higher resolution sampling, molecular methods and public databases can now more rigorously examine dispersal distances and species ranges on the vast ocean floor. Here, we explore the major outstanding questions in deep-sea biogeography. Based on current evidence, many taxa appear broadly distributed across the deep sea, a pattern replicated in both the abyssal plains and specialized environments such as hydrothermal vents. Cold waters may slow larval metabolism and development augmenting the great intrinsic ability for dispersal among many deep-sea species. Currents, environmental shifts, and topography can prove to be dispersal barriers but are often semipermeable. Evidence of historical events such as points of faunal origin and climatic fluctuations are also evident in contemporary biogeographic ranges. Continued synthetic analysis, database construction, theoretical advancement and field sampling will be required to further refine hypotheses regarding deep-sea biogeography.

  2. What Models and Satellites Tell Us (and Don't Tell Us) About Arctic Sea Ice Melt Season Length

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlert, A.; Jahn, A.

    2017-12-01

    Melt season length—the difference between the sea ice melt onset date and the sea ice freeze onset date—plays an important role in the radiation balance of the Arctic and the predictability of the sea ice cover. However, there are multiple possible definitions for sea ice melt and freeze onset in climate models, and none of them exactly correspond to the remote sensing definition. Using the CESM Large Ensemble model simulations, we show how this mismatch between model and remote sensing definitions of melt and freeze onset limits the utility of melt season remote sensing data for bias detection in models. It also opens up new questions about the precise physical meaning of the melt season remote sensing data. Despite these challenges, we find that the increase in melt season length in the CESM is not as large as that derived from remote sensing data, even when we account for internal variability and different definitions. At the same time, we find that the CESM ensemble members that have the largest trend in sea ice extent over the period 1979-2014 also have the largest melt season trend, driven primarily by the trend towards later freeze onsets. This might be an indication that an underestimation of the melt season length trend is one factor contributing to the generally underestimated sea ice loss within the CESM, and potentially climate models in general.

  3. Long-term trends in nutrient budgets of the western Dutch Wadden Sea (1976-2012)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, A. S.; Brinkman, A. G.; Folmer, E. O.; Herman, P. M. J.; van der Veer, H. W.; Philippart, C. J. M.

    2017-09-01

    Long-term field observations of nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P] concentrations were used to construct nutrient budgets for the western Dutch Wadden Sea between 1976 and 2012. Nutrients come into the western Dutch Wadden Sea via river runoff, through exchange with the coastal zone of the North Sea, neighbouring tidal basins and through atmospheric deposition (for N). The highest concentrations in phosphorus and nitrogen were observed in the mid-1980s. Improved phosphorus removal at waste water treatment plants, management of fertilization in agriculture and removal of phosphates from detergents led to reduced riverine nutrient inputs and, consequently, reduced nutrient concentrations in the Wadden Sea. The budgets suggest that the period of the initial net import of phosphorus and nitrogen switched to a net export in 1981 for nitrogen and in 1992 for phosphorus. Such different behaviour in nutrient budgets during the rise and fall of external nutrient concentrations may be the result of different sediment-water exchange dynamics for P and N. It is hypothesized that during the period of increasing eutrophication (1976-1981) P, and to a lesser degree N, were stored in sediments as organic and inorganic nutrients. In the following period (1981-1992) external nutrient concentrations (especially in the North Sea) decreased, but P concentrations in the Wadden Sea remained high due to prolonged sediment release, whilst denitrification removed substantial amounts of N. From 1992 onwards, P and N budgets were closed by net loss, most probably because P stores were then depleted and denitrification continued. Under the present conditions (lower rates of sediment import and depleted P stores), nutrient concentrations in this area are expected to be more strongly influenced by wind-driven exchange with the North Sea and precipitation-driven discharge from Lake IJssel. This implies that the consequences of climate change will be more important, than during the 1970s and 1980s.

  4. New Tools for Sea Ice Data Analysis and Visualization: NSIDC's Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vizcarra, N.; Stroeve, J.; Beam, K.; Beitler, J.; Brandt, M.; Kovarik, J.; Savoie, M. H.; Skaug, M.; Stafford, T.

    2017-12-01

    Arctic sea ice has long been recognized as a sensitive climate indicator and has undergone a dramatic decline over the past thirty years. Antarctic sea ice continues to be an intriguing and active field of research. The National Snow and Ice Data Center's Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis (ASINA) offers researchers and the public a transparent view of sea ice data and analysis. We have released a new set of tools for sea ice analysis and visualization. In addition to Charctic, our interactive sea ice extent graph, the new Sea Ice Data and Analysis Tools page provides access to Arctic and Antarctic sea ice data organized in seven different data workbooks, updated daily or monthly. An interactive tool lets scientists, or the public, quickly compare changes in ice extent and location. Another tool allows users to map trends, anomalies, and means for user-defined time periods. Animations of September Arctic and Antarctic monthly average sea ice extent and concentration may also be accessed from this page. Our tools help the NSIDC scientists monitor and understand sea ice conditions in near real time. They also allow the public to easily interact with and explore sea ice data. Technical innovations in our data center helped NSIDC quickly build these tools and more easily maintain them. The tools were made publicly accessible to meet the desire from the public and members of the media to access the numbers and calculations that power our visualizations and analysis. This poster explores these tools and how other researchers, the media, and the general public are using them.

  5. Life on the margin: genetic isolation and diversity loss in a peripheral marine ecosystem, the Baltic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johannesson, Kerstin; André, Carl

    2006-07-01

    Marginal populations are often isolated and under extreme selection pressures resulting in anomalous genetics. Consequently, ecosystems that are geographically and ecologically marginal might have a large share of genetically atypical populations, in need of particular concern in management of these ecosystems. To test this prediction, we analysed genetic data from 29 species inhabiting the low saline Baltic Sea, a geographically and ecologically marginal ecosystem. On average Baltic populations had lost genetic diversity compared to Atlantic populations: a pattern unrelated to dispersal capacity, generation time of species and taxonomic group of organism, but strongly related to type of genetic marker (mitochondrial DNA loci had lost c. 50% diversity, and nuclear loci 10%). Analyses of genetic isolation by geographic distance revealed clinal patterns of differentiation between Baltic and Atlantic regions. For a majority of species, clines were sigmoid with a sharp slope around the Baltic Sea entrance, indicating impeded gene flows between Baltic and Atlantic populations. Some species showed signs of allele frequencies being perturbed at the edge of their distribution inside the Baltic Sea. Despite the short geological history of the Baltic Sea (8000 years), populations inhabiting the Baltic have evolved substantially different from Atlantic populations, probably as a consequence of isolation and bottlenecks, as well as selection on adaptive traits. In addition, the Baltic Sea also acts a refuge for unique evolutionary lineages. This marginal ecosystem is thus vulnerable but also exceedingly valuable, housing unique genes, genotypes and populations that constitute an important genetic resource for management and conservation.

  6. North Sea trends typify industry's worldwide adjustment to change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicandros, C.S.

    1993-01-01

    In response to rapid industry changes, oil companies are employing new practices and entering new relationships. In the U.K. North Sea's Britannia field, Conoco (U.K.) Ltd. and Chevron (U.K.) Ltd. share duties of field operator in the region's first such business arrangement. Here, the Neddrill 6 semisubmersible drills a Britannia appraisal well. This report tells how companies are using teamwork and other techniques to derive maximum value from their assets and technologies

  7. Increasing persistent haze in Beijing: potential impacts of weakening East Asian winter monsoons associated with northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Pei

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decades, Beijing, the capital city of China, has encountered increasingly frequent persistent haze events (PHE. While the increased pollutant emissions are considered as the most important reason, changes in regional atmospheric circulations associated with large-scale climate warming also play a role. In this study, we find a significant positive trend of PHE in Beijing for the winters from 1980 to 2016 based on updated daily observations. This trend is closely related to an increasing frequency of extreme anomalous southerly episodes in North China, a weakened East Asian trough in the mid-troposphere and a northward shift of the East Asian jet stream in the upper troposphere. These conditions together depict a weakened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM system, which is then found to be associated with an anomalous warm, high-pressure system in the middle–lower troposphere over the northwestern Pacific. A practical EAWM index is defined as the seasonal meridional wind anomaly at 850 hPa in winter over North China. Over the period 1900–2016, this EAWM index is positively correlated with the sea surface temperature anomalies over the northwestern Pacific, which indicates a wavy positive trend, with an enhanced positive phase since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest an observation-based mechanism linking the increase in PHE in Beijing with large-scale climatic warming through changes in the typical regional atmospheric circulation.

  8. Changing Sea Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugh, David

    2004-04-01

    Flooding of coastal communities is one of the major causes of environmental disasters world-wide. This textbook explains how sea levels are affected by astronomical tides, weather effects, ocean circulation and climate trends. Based on courses taught by the author in the U.K. and the U.S., it is aimed at undergraduate students at all levels, with non-basic mathematics being confined to Appendices and a website http://publishing.cambridge.org/resources/0521532183/.

  9. Fifth Baltic Sea pollution load compilation (PLC-5)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knuuttila, S.; Svendsen, L. M.; Staaf, H.; Kotilainen, P.; Boutrup, S.; Pyhala, M.; Durkin, M.

    2011-07-01

    This report includes the main results from the Fifth Pollution Load Compilation abbreviated PLC-5. It includes quantified annual waterborne total loads (from rivers, unmonitored and coastal areas as well as direct point and diffuse sources discharging directly to the Baltic Sea) from 1994 to 2008 to provide a basis for evaluating any decreasing (or increasing) trends in the total waterborne inputs to the Baltic Sea. Chapter 1 contains the objectives of PLC and the framework on classification of inputs and sources. Chapter 2 includes a short description of the Baltic Sea catchment area, while the methods for quantification and analysis together with quality assurance topics are briefly introduced in Chapter 3. More detailed information on methodologies is presented in the PLC-5 guidelines (HELCOM 2006). Chapter 4 reports the total inputs to the Baltic Sea of nutrients and selected heavy metals. Furthermore, the results of the quatification of discharges and losses of nitrogen and phosphorus from point and diffuse sources into inland surface waters within the Baltic Sea catchment area (source-oriented approach or gross loads) as well as the total load to the maritime area (load-oriented approarch or net loads) in 2006 are shown. Typically, results are presented by country and by main Baltic Sea sub-region. In Chapter 5, flow normalization is introduced and the results of trend analyses on 1994-2008 time series data on total waterborne loads of nitrogen and phosphorus are given together with a first evaluation of progress in obtaining the provisional reduction targets by country and by main Baltic Sea sub-region. Chapter 6 includes discussion of some of the main conclusions and advice for future PLCs. The annexes contain the flow-normalized annual load data and figures and tables with results from the PLC-5.

  10. Decadal Stability of Red Sea Mangroves

    KAUST Repository

    Almahasheer, Hanan; Aljowair, Abdulaziz; Duarte, Carlos M.; Irigoien, Xabier

    2015-01-01

    Across the Earth, mangroves play an important role in coastal protection, both as nurseries and carbon sinks. However, due to various human and environmental impacts, the coverage of mangroves is declining on a global scale. The Red Sea is in the northern-most area of the distribution range of mangroves. Little is known about the surface covered by mangroves at this northern limit or about the changes experienced by Red Sea mangroves. We sought to study changes in the coverage of Red Sea mangroves by using multi-temporal Landsat data (1972, 2000 and 2013). Interestingly, our results show that there has been no decline in mangrove stands in the Red Sea but rather a slight increase. The area covered by mangroves is about 69 Km2 along the African shore and 51 Km2 along the Arabian Peninsula shore. From 1972 to 2013, the area covered by mangroves increased by about 0.29% y-1. We conclude that the trend exhibited by Red Sea mangroves departs from the general global decline of mangroves. Along the Red Sea, mangroves expanded by 12% over the 41 years from 1972 to 2013. Losses to Red Sea mangroves, mostly due to coastal development, have been compensated by afforestation projects.

  11. Decadal Stability of Red Sea Mangroves

    KAUST Repository

    Almahasheer, Hanan

    2015-12-15

    Across the Earth, mangroves play an important role in coastal protection, both as nurseries and carbon sinks. However, due to various human and environmental impacts, the coverage of mangroves is declining on a global scale. The Red Sea is in the northern-most area of the distribution range of mangroves. Little is known about the surface covered by mangroves at this northern limit or about the changes experienced by Red Sea mangroves. We sought to study changes in the coverage of Red Sea mangroves by using multi-temporal Landsat data (1972, 2000 and 2013). Interestingly, our results show that there has been no decline in mangrove stands in the Red Sea but rather a slight increase. The area covered by mangroves is about 69 Km2 along the African shore and 51 Km2 along the Arabian Peninsula shore. From 1972 to 2013, the area covered by mangroves increased by about 0.29% y-1. We conclude that the trend exhibited by Red Sea mangroves departs from the general global decline of mangroves. Along the Red Sea, mangroves expanded by 12% over the 41 years from 1972 to 2013. Losses to Red Sea mangroves, mostly due to coastal development, have been compensated by afforestation projects.

  12. Geographic Analysis of the Radiation Oncology Workforce

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aneja, Sanjay [Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States); Cancer Outcomes, Policy, and Effectiveness Research Center at Yale, New Haven, CT (United States); Smith, Benjamin D. [University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States); Gross, Cary P. [Cancer Outcomes, Policy, and Effectiveness Research Center at Yale, New Haven, CT (United States); Department of General Internal Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States); Wilson, Lynn D. [Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States); Haffty, Bruce G. [Cancer Institute of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Roberts, Kenneth [Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States); Yu, James B., E-mail: james.b.yu@yale.edu [Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States); Cancer Outcomes, Policy, and Effectiveness Research Center at Yale, New Haven, CT (United States)

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: To evaluate trends in the geographic distribution of the radiation oncology (RO) workforce. Methods and Materials: We used the 1995 and 2007 versions of the Area Resource File to map the ratio of RO to the population aged 65 years or older (ROR) within different health service areas (HSA) within the United States. We used regression analysis to find associations between population variables and 2007 ROR. We calculated Gini coefficients for ROR to assess the evenness of RO distribution and compared that with primary care physicians and total physicians. Results: There was a 24% increase in the RO workforce from 1995 to 2007. The overall growth in the RO workforce was less than that of primary care or the overall physician workforce. The mean ROR among HSAs increased by more than one radiation oncologist per 100,000 people aged 65 years or older, from 5.08 per 100,000 to 6.16 per 100,000. However, there remained consistent geographic variability concerning RO distribution, specifically affecting the non-metropolitan HSAs. Regression analysis found higher ROR in HSAs that possessed higher education (p = 0.001), higher income (p < 0.001), lower unemployment rates (p < 0.001), and higher minority population (p = 0.022). Gini coefficients showed RO distribution less even than for both primary care physicians and total physicians (0.326 compared with 0.196 and 0.292, respectively). Conclusions: Despite a modest growth in the RO workforce, there exists persistent geographic maldistribution of radiation oncologists allocated along socioeconomic and racial lines. To solve problems surrounding the RO workforce, issues concerning both gross numbers and geographic distribution must be addressed.

  13. Geographic Analysis of the Radiation Oncology Workforce

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aneja, Sanjay; Smith, Benjamin D.; Gross, Cary P.; Wilson, Lynn D.; Haffty, Bruce G.; Roberts, Kenneth; Yu, James B.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate trends in the geographic distribution of the radiation oncology (RO) workforce. Methods and Materials: We used the 1995 and 2007 versions of the Area Resource File to map the ratio of RO to the population aged 65 years or older (ROR) within different health service areas (HSA) within the United States. We used regression analysis to find associations between population variables and 2007 ROR. We calculated Gini coefficients for ROR to assess the evenness of RO distribution and compared that with primary care physicians and total physicians. Results: There was a 24% increase in the RO workforce from 1995 to 2007. The overall growth in the RO workforce was less than that of primary care or the overall physician workforce. The mean ROR among HSAs increased by more than one radiation oncologist per 100,000 people aged 65 years or older, from 5.08 per 100,000 to 6.16 per 100,000. However, there remained consistent geographic variability concerning RO distribution, specifically affecting the non-metropolitan HSAs. Regression analysis found higher ROR in HSAs that possessed higher education (p = 0.001), higher income (p < 0.001), lower unemployment rates (p < 0.001), and higher minority population (p = 0.022). Gini coefficients showed RO distribution less even than for both primary care physicians and total physicians (0.326 compared with 0.196 and 0.292, respectively). Conclusions: Despite a modest growth in the RO workforce, there exists persistent geographic maldistribution of radiation oncologists allocated along socioeconomic and racial lines. To solve problems surrounding the RO workforce, issues concerning both gross numbers and geographic distribution must be addressed.

  14. Bowhead whale body condition and links to summer sea ice and upwelling in the Beaufort Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, John C.; Druckenmiller, Matthew L.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Suydam, Robert; Person, Brian

    2015-08-01

    We examined the response of bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) body condition to summer sea ice conditions and upwelling-favorable winds. We used a long-term dataset collected from whales of the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas (BCB) stock to estimate various body condition indices (BCI's) for individual whales that were harvested by Alaskan Eskimos. A series of offshore regions frequented by bowhead whales in summer were delineated and used to quantify interannual summertime environmental conditions including: (a) mean open water fraction, (b) duration of melt season, (c) date of continuous freeze-up, and (d) mean upwelling-favorable wind stress. Body condition was analyzed relative to these metrics for both the preceding summer feeding season and the previous three seasons combined. Our analysis indicates a significant increase in the long-term trend in an axillary girth-based body condition index (BCIG) over the study period (1989-2011). The increase in BCIG is likely associated with the trend in overall reduction of sea ice, including increased duration of open water, changes in upwelling potential (wind stress), and possibly higher primary production in the Pacific Arctic marine ecosystem favoring water-column invertebrates. We found strong significant positive correlations between BCIG and late summer open water fraction in the Beaufort Sea and smaller nearshore areas off the Mackenzie Delta and west of Banks Island. Additionally, BCIG was positively and significantly correlated with duration of melt season, later date of freeze-up in the Beaufort Sea, and upwelling-favorable winds on the Mackenzie shelf and west of Banks Island. A strong seasonal difference in BCI's was noted for subadult bowheads, presumably associated with summer feeding; however, yearlings were found to drop in BCI over at least the first summer after weaning. Our results indicate an overall increase in bowhead whale body condition and a positive correlation with summer sea ice loss over the

  15. Intercomparison of passive microwave sea ice concentration retrievals over the high-concentration Arctic sea ice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    andersen, susanne; Tonboe, R.; Kaleschke, L.

    2007-01-01

    [1] Measurements of sea ice concentration from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) using seven different algorithms are compared to ship observations, sea ice divergence estimates from the Radarsat Geophysical Processor System, and ice and water surface type classification of 59 wide...... with sensor noise between 1.3 and 1.8%. This is in accord with variability estimated from analysis of SSM/I time series. Algorithms, which primarily use 85 GHz information, consistently give the best agreement with both SAR ice concentrations and ship observations. Although the 85 GHz information is more...... sensitive to atmospheric influences, it was found that the atmospheric contribution is secondary to the influence of the surface emissivity variability. Analysis of the entire SSM/I time series shows that there are significant differences in trend between sea ice extent and area, using different algorithms...

  16. Baltic Sea ice and environmental and societal implications from the comparative analysis of the Bay of Bothnia and the Gulf of Riga

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Élise Lépy

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article contributes to many studies on sea ice often carried out by geophysicists and rarely by geographers. Thus, it aims to understand climatic and marine processes of ice formation and break-up of littoral waters and coastal sea, and their environmental, economic and societal consequences in the Baltic Sea. The interest of this research lies in the comparative analysis of two regions: the Bay of Bothnia and the Gulf of Riga. These two case studies are politically, economically and culturally different and help to understand the diversity of reactions and adaptations to the human management of the natural constraint imposed by sea ice phenomena. By using a systemic approach, quite common when studying geographical issues of nature and societies, the work has contributed to a better knowledge of the natural environment of Baltic Sea ice showing a significant interannual variability and a spatial internal diversity of sea ice conditions in the Baltic Sea. It also raises the questions of the environmental determinism which is rejected by the remarkable adaptability of coastal population. Finally, the socio-economic implications of historical changes of sea ice features are emphasized showing that future Baltic Sea ice conditions should be carefully considered when talking about global evolution.

  17. Biogeographical distribution and diversity of bacterial communities in surface sediments of the South China Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tao; Wang, Peng

    2013-05-01

    This paper aims at an investigation of the features of bacterial communities in surface sediments of the South China Sea (SCS). In particular, biogeographical distribution patterns and the phylogenetic diversity of bacteria found in sediments collected from a coral reef platform, a continental slope, and a deep-sea basin were determined. Bacterial diversity was measured by an observation of 16S rRNA genes, and 18 phylogenetic groups were identified in the bacterial clone library. Planctomycetes, Deltaproteobacteria, candidate division OP11, and Alphaproteobacteria made up the majority of the bacteria in the samples, with their mean bacterial clones being 16%, 15%, 12%, and 9%, respectively. By comparison, the bacterial communities found in the SCS surface sediments were significantly different from other previously observed deep-sea bacterial communities. This research also emphasizes the fact that geographical factors have an impact on the biogeographical distribution patterns of bacterial communities. For instance, canonical correspondence analyses illustrated that the percentage of sand weight and water depth are important factors affecting the bacterial community composition. Therefore, this study highlights the importance of adequately determining the relationship between geographical factors and the distribution of bacteria in the world's seas and oceans.

  18. Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    2014-01-01

    Polar sea ice is a key element of the climate system and has now been monitored through satellite observations for over three and a half decades. The satellite observations reveal considerable information about polar ice and its changes since the late 1970s, including a prominent downward trend in Arctic sea ice coverage and a much lesser upward trend in Antarctic sea ice coverage, illustrative of the important fact that climate change entails spatial contrasts. The decreasing ice coverage in the Arctic corresponds well with contemporaneous Arctic warming and exhibits particularly large decreases in the summers of 2007 and 2012, influenced by both preconditioning and atmospheric conditions. The increasing ice coverage in the Antarctic is not as readily explained, but spatial differences in the Antarctic trends suggest a possible connection with atmospheric circulation changes that have perhaps been influenced by the Antarctic ozone hole. The changes in the polar ice covers and the issues surrounding those changes have many commonalities with broader climate changes and their surrounding issues, allowing the sea ice changes to be viewed in some important ways as a microcosm of global climate change.

  19. Decadal trends in beach morphology on the east coast of South Africa and likely causative factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Corbella

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Sandy shorelines are dynamic with constant changes that can cause hazards in developed areas. The causes of change may be either natural or anthropogenic. This paper evaluates evidence for shoreline changes and their causative factors using a case study on the east coast of South Africa. Beach morphology trends were found to be location-specific, but overall the beaches show a receding trend. It was hypothesized that wave, tide, sea level and wind trends as well as anthropogenic influences are causative factors, and their contributions to shoreline changes were evaluated. Maximum significant wave heights, average wave direction, peak period and storm event frequencies all show weak increasing trends, but only the increases in peak period and wave direction are statistically significant. The chronic beach erosion cannot be attributed to wave climate changes since they are still too small to explain the observations. Instead, the impacts of sea level rise and reductions in the supply of beach sediments are suggested as the main causative factors. The analysis also identifies a trend in the frequency of severe erosion events due to storms that coincide with a 4.5-yr extreme tide cycle, which demonstrates the potential impact of future sea level rise.

  20. Arctic marine mammal population status, sea ice habitat loss, and conservation recommendations for the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Harry; Kovacs, Kit M.; Lowry, Lloyd; Moore, Sue E.; Regehr, Eric V.; Ferguson, Steven H.; Wiig, Øystein; Boveng, Peter; Angliss, Robyn P.; Born, Erik W.; Litovka, Dennis; Quakenbush, Lori; Lydersen, Christian; Vongraven, Dag; Ugarte, Fernando

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Arctic marine mammals (AMMs) are icons of climate change, largely because of their close association with sea ice. However, neither a circumpolar assessment of AMM status nor a standardized metric of sea ice habitat change is available. We summarized available data on abundance and trend for each AMM species and recognized subpopulation. We also examined species diversity, the extent of human use, and temporal trends in sea ice habitat for 12 regions of the Arctic by calculating the dates of spring sea ice retreat and fall sea ice advance from satellite data (1979–2013). Estimates of AMM abundance varied greatly in quality, and few studies were long enough for trend analysis. Of the AMM subpopulations, 78% (61 of 78) are legally harvested for subsistence purposes. Changes in sea ice phenology have been profound. In all regions except the Bering Sea, the duration of the summer (i.e., reduced ice) period increased by 5–10 weeks and by >20 weeks in the Barents Sea between 1979 and 2013. In light of generally poor data, the importance of human use, and forecasted environmental changes in the 21st century, we recommend the following for effective AMM conservation: maintain and improve comanagement by local, federal, and international partners; recognize spatial and temporal variability in AMM subpopulation response to climate change; implement monitoring programs with clear goals; mitigate cumulative impacts of increased human activity; and recognize the limits of current protected species legislation. PMID:25783745

  1. Indo-Pacific sea level variability during recent decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamanaka, G.; Tsujino, H.; Nakano, H.; Urakawa, S. L.; Sakamoto, K.

    2016-12-01

    Decadal variability of sea level in the Indo-Pacific region is investigated using a historical OGCM simulation. The OGCM driven by the atmospheric forcing removing long-term trends clearly exhibits decadal sea level variability in the Pacific Ocean, which is associated with eastern tropical Pacific thermal anomalies. During the period of 1977-1987, the sea level anomalies are positive in the eastern equatorial Pacific and show deviations from a north-south symmetric distribution, with strongly negative anomalies in the western tropical South Pacific. During the period of 1996-2006, in contrast, the sea level anomalies are negative in the eastern equatorial Pacific and show a nearly north-south symmetric pattern, with positive anomalies in both hemispheres. Concurrently, sea level anomalies in the south-eastern Indian Ocean vary with those in the western tropical Pacific. These sea level variations are closely related to large-scale wind fields. Indo-Pacific sea level distributions are basically determined by wind anomalies over the equatorial region as well as wind stress curl anomalies over the off-equatorial region.

  2. Were sea level changes during the Pleistocene in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain a driver of speciation in Petunia (Solanaceae)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos-Fregonezi, Aline M C; Fregonezi, Jeferson N; Cybis, Gabriela B; Fagundes, Nelson J R; Bonatto, Sandro L; Freitas, Loreta B

    2015-05-20

    Quaternary climatic changes led to variations in sea level and these variations played a significant role in the generation of marine terrace deposits in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain. The main consequence of the increase in sea level was local extinction or population displacement, such that coastal species would be found around the new coastline. Our main goal was to investigate the effects of sea level changes on the geographical structure and variability of genetic lineages from a Petunia species endemic to the South Atlantic Coastal Plain. We employed a phylogeographic approach based on plastid sequences obtained from individuals collected from the complete geographic distribution of Petunia integrifolia ssp. depauperata and its sister group. We used population genetics tests to evaluate the degree of genetic variation and structure among and within populations, and we used haplotype network analysis and Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate divergence times and population growth. We observed three major genetic lineages whose geographical distribution may be related to different transgression/regression events that occurred in this region during the Pleistocene. The divergence time between the monophyletic group P. integrifolia ssp. depauperata and its sister group (P. integrifolia ssp. integrifolia) was compatible with geological estimates of the availability of the coastal plain. Similarly, the origin of each genetic lineage is congruent with geological estimates of habitat availability. Diversification of P. integrifolia ssp. depauperata possibly occurred as a consequence of the marine transgression/regression cycles during the Pleistocene. In periods of high sea level, plants were most likely restricted to a refuge area corresponding to fossil dunes and granitic hills, from which they colonized the coast once the sea level came down. The modern pattern of lineage geographical distribution and population variation was established by a range

  3. Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Raitsos, D. E.

    2011-07-19

    Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

  4. Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raitsos, D. E.; Hoteit, I.; Prihartato, P. K.; Chronis, T.; Triantafyllou, G.; Abualnaja, Y.

    2011-07-01

    Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

  5. Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P. C. D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, C.

    2003-01-01

    Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981–1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981–1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993–1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system. PMID:14576277

  6. High resolution sea-level curve for the latest Frasnian and earliest Famennian derived for high frequency sequences in the Appalachian Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Filer, J.K. (Washington and Lee Univ., Lexington, VA (United States). Dept. of Geology)

    1992-01-01

    Siliciclastic sequences have been mapped in the subsurface and outcrop of much of the Appalachian basin in facies ranging from shale in the basin plain to shelf sandstone. Eleven transgressive/regressive cycles have been defined in an estimated 1.5 to 2.0 Ma period in the latest Frasnian and earliest Famennian, and range in duration from about 75,000 to 400,000 years. Lithofacies maps, covering most of the basin, were prepared for each sequence. These maps show both the area of basinal black shale deposition, which defines the base of each cycle, and the areal extent of subsequent clinoform siltstone and shelf sandstone deposition in the upper portion of each cycle. The stratigraphic patterns show two stacked sets of progradational basinwide sequences. Geographic scale of the study precludes autocyclic controls of cycles. Sea-level/climate cycles, probably superimposed on longer term tectonic cycles, are the proposed cause of these observed depositional patterns. Removal of the long-term progradational trend of Upper Devonian basin filling results in a proposed eustatic sea-level curve (Johnson and others (1985)) reveals correspondence of three regressive maxima in both models. The curve presented here reveals that an ongoing process of higher frequency sea-level modification was active at this time. Higher frequency sea-level events, nested within previously interpreted lower frequency global events, are inferred to also be eustatic. Models of a biotic crises which occurs at this time should consider the implications of these high frequency sea-level cycles. The patterns observed are consistent with latest Frasnian initiation of glaciation in South America. This would be somewhat earlier than has generally been accepted.

  7. Sea-level Variation Along the Suez Canal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eid, F. M.; Sharaf El-Din, S. H.; Alam El-Din, K. A.

    1997-05-01

    The variation of sea level at 11 stations distributed along the Suez Canal was studied during the period from 1980 to 1986. The ranges of variation in daily mean sea level at Port Said and Port Tawfik are about 60 and 120 cm, respectively. The minimum range of daily variation is at Kantara (47 cm). The fluctuations of the monthly mean sea level between the two ends of the Suez Canal vary from one season to another. From July to December, the sea level at Port Said is higher than that at Port Tawfik, with the maximum difference (10·5 cm) in September. During the rest of the year, the mean sea level at Port Tawfik is higher than that at Port Said, with the maximum difference (31·5 cm) in March. The long-term variations of the annual mean sea level at both Port Said and Port Tawfik for the period from 1923 to 1986 showed a positive trend. The sea level at Port Said increased by about 27·8 cm century -1while it increased by only 9·1 cm century -1at Port Tawfik. This indicates that the difference between sea level at Port Said and Port Tawfik has decreased with time.

  8. Spatial patterns of March and September streamflow trends in Pacific Northwest Streams, 1958-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Heejun; Jung, Il-Won; Steele, Madeline; Gannett, Marshall

    2012-01-01

    Summer streamflow is a vital water resource for municipal and domestic water supplies, irrigation, salmonid habitat, recreation, and water-related ecosystem services in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) in the United States. This study detects significant negative trends in September absolute streamflow in a majority of 68 stream-gauging stations located on unregulated streams in the PNW from 1958 to 2008. The proportion of March streamflow to annual streamflow increases in most stations over 1,000 m elevation, with a baseflow index of less than 50, while absolute March streamflow does not increase in most stations. The declining trends of September absolute streamflow are strongly associated with seven-day low flow, January–March maximum temperature trends, and the size of the basin (19–7,260 km2), while the increasing trends of the fraction of March streamflow are associated with elevation, April 1 snow water equivalent, March precipitation, center timing of streamflow, and October–December minimum temperature trends. Compared with ordinary least squares (OLS) estimated regression models, spatial error regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models effectively remove spatial autocorrelation in residuals. The GWR model results show spatial gradients of local R 2 values with consistently higher local R 2 values in the northern Cascades. This finding illustrates that different hydrologic landscape factors, such as geology and seasonal distribution of precipitation, also influence streamflow trends in the PNW. In addition, our spatial analysis model results show that considering various geographic factors help clarify the dynamics of streamflow trends over a large geographical area, supporting a spatial analysis approach over aspatial OLS-estimated regression models for predicting streamflow trends. Results indicate that transitional rain–snow surface water-dominated basins are likely to have reduced summer streamflow under warming scenarios

  9. Bio-engineering in the Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zandersen, Marianne

    2011-01-01

    Bio-engineering in the Baltic Sea – value of water quality improvements & risk perceptions Dr. Marianne Zandersen1 Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University Abstract The Baltic Sea is heavily eutrofied and the trend has gone from bad to worse. The hypoxic zone has increased about 4...... of the water column to the bottom waters/deepwater. The expected effects include a slowing down of the sediment release from the bottom and improvement of the possibilities for aerobic bacterial decomposition and over time for the establishment of fauna. The projects test a bio-engineered approach to speeding...

  10. Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Guinehut, Stéphanie; Xue, Yan; Szekely, Tanguy; Fukumori, Ichiro; Forget, Gael; Chang, You-Soon; Good, Simon A.; Köhl, Armin; Vernieres, Guillaume; Ferry, Nicolas; Peterson, K. Andrew; Behringer, David; Ishii, Masayoshi; Masuda, Shuhei; Fujii, Yosuke; Toyoda, Takahiro; Yin, Yonghong; Valdivieso, Maria; Barnier, Bernard; Boyer, Tim; Lee, Tony; Gourrion, Jérome; Wang, Ou; Heimback, Patrick; Rosati, Anthony; Kovach, Robin; Hernandez, Fabrice; Martin, Matthew J.; Kamachi, Masafumi; Kuragano, Tsurane; Mogensen, Kristian; Alves, Oscar; Haines, Keith; Wang, Xiaochun

    2017-08-01

    Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003-2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993-2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.

  11. Improving Arctic Sea Ice Observations and Data Access to Support Advances in Sea Ice Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, S. L.

    2017-12-01

    The economic and strategic importance of the Arctic region is becoming apparent. One of the most striking and widely publicized changes underway is the declining sea ice cover. Since sea ice is a key component of the climate system, its ongoing loss has serious, and wide-ranging, socio-economic implications. Increasing year-to-year variability in the geographic location, concentration, and thickness of the Arctic ice cover will pose both challenges and opportunities. The sea ice research community must be engaged in sustained Arctic Observing Network (AON) initiatives so as to deliver fit-for-purpose remote sensing data products to a variety of stakeholders including Arctic communities, the weather forecasting and climate modeling communities, industry, local, regional and national governments, and policy makers. An example of engagement is the work currently underway to improve research collaborations between scientists engaged in obtaining and assessing sea ice observational data and those conducting numerical modeling studies and forecasting ice conditions. As part of the US AON, in collaboration with the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC), we are developing a strategic framework within which observers and modelers can work towards the common goal of improved sea ice forecasting. Here, we focus on sea ice thickness, a key varaible of the Arctic ice cover. We describe multi-sensor, and blended, sea ice thickness data products under development that can be leveraged to improve model initialization and validation, as well as support data assimilation exercises. We will also present the new PolarWatch initiative (polarwatch.noaa.gov) and discuss efforts to advance access to remote sensing satellite observations and improve communication with Arctic stakeholders, so as to deliver data products that best address societal needs.

  12. Characterizing and attributing the warming trend in sea and land surface temperatures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, Francisco; Martins, Luis Filipe; Perron, Pierre

    2017-01-01

    Because of low-frequency internal variability, the observed and underlying warming trends in temperature series can be markedly different. Important differences in the observed nonlinear trends in hemispheric temperature series suggest that the northern and southern hemispheres have responded

  13. Divergence within and among Seaweed Siblings (Fucus vesiculosus and F. radicans) in the Baltic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardehed, Angelica; Johansson, Daniel; Sundqvist, Lisa; Schagerström, Ellen; Zagrodzka, Zuzanna; Kovaltchouk, Nikolaj A; Bergström, Lena; Kautsky, Lena; Rafajlovic, Marina; Pereyra, Ricardo T; Johannesson, Kerstin

    2016-01-01

    Closely related taxa provide significant case studies for understanding evolution of new species but may simultaneously challenge species identification and definition. In the Baltic Sea, two dominant and perennial brown algae share a very recent ancestry. Fucus vesiculosus invaded this recently formed postglacial sea 8000 years ago and shortly thereafter Fucus radicans diverged from this lineage as an endemic species. In the Baltic Sea both species reproduce sexually but also recruit fully fertile new individuals by asexual fragmentation. Earlier studies have shown local differences in morphology and genetics between the two taxa in the northern and western Bothnian Sea, and around the island of Saaremaa in Estonia, but geographic patterns seem in conflict with a single origin of F. radicans. To investigate the relationship between northern and Estonian distributions, we analysed the genetic variation using 9 microsatellite loci in populations from eastern Bothnian Sea, Archipelago Sea and the Gulf of Finland. These populations are located in between earlier studied populations. However, instead of bridging the disparate genetic gap between N-W Bothnian Sea and Estonia, as expected from a simple isolation-by-distance model, the new populations substantially increased overall genetic diversity and showed to be strongly divergent from the two earlier analysed regions, showing signs of additional distinct populations. Contrasting earlier findings of increased asexual recruitment in low salinity in the Bothnian Sea, we found high levels of sexual reproduction in some of the Gulf of Finland populations that inhabit extremely low salinity. The new data generated in this study supports the earlier conclusion of two reproductively isolated but very closely related species. However, the new results also add considerable genetic and morphological complexity within species. This makes species separation at geographic scales more demanding and suggests a need for more

  14. Divergence within and among Seaweed Siblings (Fucus vesiculosus and F. radicans in the Baltic Sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelica Ardehed

    Full Text Available Closely related taxa provide significant case studies for understanding evolution of new species but may simultaneously challenge species identification and definition. In the Baltic Sea, two dominant and perennial brown algae share a very recent ancestry. Fucus vesiculosus invaded this recently formed postglacial sea 8000 years ago and shortly thereafter Fucus radicans diverged from this lineage as an endemic species. In the Baltic Sea both species reproduce sexually but also recruit fully fertile new individuals by asexual fragmentation. Earlier studies have shown local differences in morphology and genetics between the two taxa in the northern and western Bothnian Sea, and around the island of Saaremaa in Estonia, but geographic patterns seem in conflict with a single origin of F. radicans. To investigate the relationship between northern and Estonian distributions, we analysed the genetic variation using 9 microsatellite loci in populations from eastern Bothnian Sea, Archipelago Sea and the Gulf of Finland. These populations are located in between earlier studied populations. However, instead of bridging the disparate genetic gap between N-W Bothnian Sea and Estonia, as expected from a simple isolation-by-distance model, the new populations substantially increased overall genetic diversity and showed to be strongly divergent from the two earlier analysed regions, showing signs of additional distinct populations. Contrasting earlier findings of increased asexual recruitment in low salinity in the Bothnian Sea, we found high levels of sexual reproduction in some of the Gulf of Finland populations that inhabit extremely low salinity. The new data generated in this study supports the earlier conclusion of two reproductively isolated but very closely related species. However, the new results also add considerable genetic and morphological complexity within species. This makes species separation at geographic scales more demanding and suggests a

  15. Revisiting the contemporary sea-level budget on global and regional scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rietbroek, Roelof; Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther; Kusche, Jürgen; Schröter, Jens; Dahle, Christoph

    2016-02-09

    Dividing the sea-level budget into contributions from ice sheets and glaciers, the water cycle, steric expansion, and crustal movement is challenging, especially on regional scales. Here, Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity observations and sea-level anomalies from altimetry are used in a joint inversion, ensuring a consistent decomposition of the global and regional sea-level rise budget. Over the years 2002-2014, we find a global mean steric trend of 1.38 ± 0.16 mm/y, compared with a total trend of 2.74 ± 0.58 mm/y. This is significantly larger than steric trends derived from in situ temperature/salinity profiles and models which range from 0.66 ± 0.2 to 0.94 ± 0.1 mm/y. Mass contributions from ice sheets and glaciers (1.37 ± 0.09 mm/y, accelerating with 0.03 ± 0.02 mm/y(2)) are offset by a negative hydrological component (-0.29 ± 0.26 mm/y). The combined mass rate (1.08 ± 0.3 mm/y) is smaller than previous GRACE estimates (up to 2 mm/y), but it is consistent with the sum of individual contributions (ice sheets, glaciers, and hydrology) found in literature. The altimetric sea-level budget is closed by coestimating a remaining component of 0.22 ± 0.26 mm/y. Well above average sea-level rise is found regionally near the Philippines (14.7 ± 4.39 mm/y) and Indonesia (8.3 ± 4.7 mm/y) which is dominated by steric components (11.2 ± 3.58 mm/y and 6.4 ± 3.18 mm/y, respectively). In contrast, in the central and Eastern part of the Pacific, negative steric trends (down to -2.8 ± 1.53 mm/y) are detected. Significant regional components are found, up to 5.3 ± 2.6 mm/y in the northwest Atlantic, which are likely due to ocean bottom pressure variations.

  16. Modeled distribution and abundance of a pelagic seabird reveal trends in relation to fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renner, Martin; Parrish, Julia K.; Piatt, John F.; Kuletz, Kathy J.; Edwards, Ann E.; Hunt, George L.

    2013-01-01

    The northern fulmar Fulmarus glacialis is one of the most visible and widespread seabirds in the eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. However, relatively little is known about its abundance, trends, or the factors that shape its distribution. We used a long-term pelagic dataset to model changes in fulmar at-sea distribution and abundance since the mid-1970s. We used an ensemble model, based on a weighted average of generalized additive model (GAM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and random forest models to estimate the pelagic distribution and density of fulmars in the waters of the Aleutian Archipelago and Bering Sea. The most important predictor variables were colony effect, sea surface temperature, distribution of fisheries, location, and primary productivity. We calculated a time series from the ratio of observed to predicted values and found that fulmar at-sea abundance declined from the 1970s to the 2000s at a rate of 0.83% (± 0.39% SE) per annum. Interpolating fulmar densities on a spatial grid through time, we found that the center of fulmar distribution in the Bering Sea has shifted north, coinciding with a northward shift in fish catches and a warming ocean. Our study shows that fisheries are an important, but not the only factor, shaping fulmar distribution and abundance trends in the eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands.

  17. Seabirds, gyres and global trends in plastic pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Franeker, Jan A; Law, Kara Lavender

    2015-08-01

    Fulmars are effective biological indicators of the abundance of floating plastic marine debris. Long-term data reveal high plastic abundance in the southern North Sea, gradually decreasing to the north at increasing distance from population centres, with lowest levels in high-arctic waters. Since the 1980s, pre-production plastic pellets in North Sea fulmars have decreased by ∼75%, while user plastics varied without a strong overall change. Similar trends were found in net-collected floating plastic debris in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre, with a ∼75% decrease in plastic pellets and no obvious trend in user plastic. The decreases in pellets suggest that changes in litter input are rapidly visible in the environment not only close to presumed sources, but also far from land. Floating plastic debris is rapidly "lost" from the ocean surface to other as-yet undetermined sinks in the marine environment. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  18. Genomic evolution, recombination, and inter-strain diversity of chelonid alphaherpesvirus 5 from Florida and Hawaii green sea turtles with fibropapillomatosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Cheryl L.; Iwanowicz, Luke R.; Work, Thierry M.; Fahsbender, Elizabeth; Breitbart, Mya; Adams, Cynthia; Iwanowicz, Deborah; Sanders, Lakyn; Ackermann, Mathias; Cornman, Robert S.

    2018-01-01

    Chelonid alphaherpesvirus 5 (ChHV5) is a herpesvirus associated with fibropapillomatosis (FP) in sea turtles worldwide. Single-locus typing has previously shown differentiation between Atlantic and Pacific strains of this virus, with low variation within each geographic clade. However, a lack of multi-locus genomic sequence data hinders understanding of the rate and mechanisms of ChHV5 evolutionary divergence, as well as how these genomic changes may contribute to differences in disease manifestation. To assess genomic variation in ChHV5 among five Hawaii and three Florida green sea turtles, we used high-throughput short-read sequencing of long-range PCR products amplified from tumor tissue using primers designed from the single available ChHV5 reference genome from a Hawaii green sea turtle. This strategy recovered sequence data from both geographic regions for approximately 75% of the predicted ChHV5 coding sequences. The average nucleotide divergence between geographic populations was 1.5%; most of the substitutions were fixed differences between regions. Protein divergence was generally low (average 0.08%), and ranged between 0 and 5.3%. Several atypical genes originally identified and annotated in the reference genome were confirmed in ChHV5 genomes from both geographic locations. Unambiguous recombination events between geographic regions were identified, and clustering of private alleles suggests the prevalence of recombination in the evolutionary history of ChHV5. This study significantly increased the amount of sequence data available from ChHV5 strains, enabling informed selection of loci for future population genetic and natural history studies, and suggesting the (possibly latent) co-infection of individuals by well-differentiated geographic variants.

  19. Genomic evolution, recombination, and inter-strain diversity of chelonid alphaherpesvirus 5 from Florida and Hawaii green sea turtles with fibropapillomatosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Cheryl L; Iwanowicz, Luke; Work, Thierry M; Fahsbender, Elizabeth; Breitbart, Mya; Adams, Cynthia; Iwanowicz, Deb; Sanders, Lakyn; Ackermann, Mathias; Cornman, Robert S

    2018-01-01

    Chelonid alphaherpesvirus 5 (ChHV5) is a herpesvirus associated with fibropapillomatosis (FP) in sea turtles worldwide. Single-locus typing has previously shown differentiation between Atlantic and Pacific strains of this virus, with low variation within each geographic clade. However, a lack of multi-locus genomic sequence data hinders understanding of the rate and mechanisms of ChHV5 evolutionary divergence, as well as how these genomic changes may contribute to differences in disease manifestation. To assess genomic variation in ChHV5 among five Hawaii and three Florida green sea turtles, we used high-throughput short-read sequencing of long-range PCR products amplified from tumor tissue using primers designed from the single available ChHV5 reference genome from a Hawaii green sea turtle. This strategy recovered sequence data from both geographic regions for approximately 75% of the predicted ChHV5 coding sequences. The average nucleotide divergence between geographic populations was 1.5%; most of the substitutions were fixed differences between regions. Protein divergence was generally low (average 0.08%), and ranged between 0 and 5.3%. Several atypical genes originally identified and annotated in the reference genome were confirmed in ChHV5 genomes from both geographic locations. Unambiguous recombination events between geographic regions were identified, and clustering of private alleles suggests the prevalence of recombination in the evolutionary history of ChHV5. This study significantly increased the amount of sequence data available from ChHV5 strains, enabling informed selection of loci for future population genetic and natural history studies, and suggesting the (possibly latent) co-infection of individuals by well-differentiated geographic variants.

  20. Genomic evolution, recombination, and inter-strain diversity of chelonid alphaherpesvirus 5 from Florida and Hawaii green sea turtles with fibropapillomatosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheryl L. Morrison

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Chelonid alphaherpesvirus 5 (ChHV5 is a herpesvirus associated with fibropapillomatosis (FP in sea turtles worldwide. Single-locus typing has previously shown differentiation between Atlantic and Pacific strains of this virus, with low variation within each geographic clade. However, a lack of multi-locus genomic sequence data hinders understanding of the rate and mechanisms of ChHV5 evolutionary divergence, as well as how these genomic changes may contribute to differences in disease manifestation. To assess genomic variation in ChHV5 among five Hawaii and three Florida green sea turtles, we used high-throughput short-read sequencing of long-range PCR products amplified from tumor tissue using primers designed from the single available ChHV5 reference genome from a Hawaii green sea turtle. This strategy recovered sequence data from both geographic regions for approximately 75% of the predicted ChHV5 coding sequences. The average nucleotide divergence between geographic populations was 1.5%; most of the substitutions were fixed differences between regions. Protein divergence was generally low (average 0.08%, and ranged between 0 and 5.3%. Several atypical genes originally identified and annotated in the reference genome were confirmed in ChHV5 genomes from both geographic locations. Unambiguous recombination events between geographic regions were identified, and clustering of private alleles suggests the prevalence of recombination in the evolutionary history of ChHV5. This study significantly increased the amount of sequence data available from ChHV5 strains, enabling informed selection of loci for future population genetic and natural history studies, and suggesting the (possibly latent co-infection of individuals by well-differentiated geographic variants.

  1. Geographical extent of denitrification in the Arabian Sea in relation to some physical processes

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naqvi, S.W.A.

    . This provides a mechanism for the injection of appreciable quantities of labile dissolved organic carbon (DOC) into the oxygen-minimum layer and, in conjunction with the high horizontal diffusivity in the Arabian Sea, could account for the observed lack...

  2. Microbial food webs and metabolic state across oligotrophic waters of the Mediterranean Sea during summer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Christaki

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The abundance and activity of the major members of the heterotrophic microbial community – from viruses to ciliates – were studied along a longitudinal transect across the Mediterranean Sea in the summer of 2008. The Mediterranean Sea is characterized by a west to-east gradient of deepening of DCM (deep chlorophyll maximum and increasing oligotrophy reflected in gradients of biomass and production. However, within this well documented longitudinal trend, hydrological mesoscale features exist and likely influence microbial dynamics. Here we present data from a W-E transect of 17 stations during the period of summer stratification. Along the transect the production and fate of organic matter was investigated at three selected sites each one located in the centre of an anticyclonic eddy: in the Algero-Provencal Basin (St. A, the Ionian Basin (St. B, and the Levantine Basin (St. C. The 3 geographically distant eddies showed low values of the different heterotrophic compartments of the microbial food web, and except for viruses in site C, all integrated (0–150 m stocks were higher in reference stations located in the same basin outside the eddies. During our study the 3 eddies showed equilibrium between GPP (Gross Primary Production and DCR (Dark Community Respiration. Integrated PPp (Particulate Primary Production values at A, B and C varied from ~140 to ~190 mg C m−2.

  3. Canadian population trends in leisure-time physical activity levels, 1981-1998.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, Marny J; Katzmarzyk, Peter T

    2002-12-01

    Age, sex, geographic and temporal trends in leisure-time physical activity levels were examined using data from five national surveys conducted between 1981 and 1998. Physical activity energy expenditure (AEE) was higher among men compared to women, and in younger versus older adults. AEE increased from Eastern to Western Canada, with a significant temporal trend of increasing AEE. The prevalence of physical inactivity (expending importance of population-level physical activity surveillance and interventions.

  4. Geographical variation in egg mass and egg content in a passerine bird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suvi Ruuskanen

    Full Text Available Reproductive, phenotypic and life-history traits in many animal and plant taxa show geographic variation, indicating spatial variation in selection regimes. Maternal deposition to avian eggs, such as hormones, antibodies and antioxidants, critically affect development of the offspring, with long-lasting effects on the phenotype and fitness. Little is however known about large-scale geographical patterns of variation in maternal deposition to eggs. We studied geographical variation in egg components of a passerine bird, the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca, by collecting samples from 16 populations and measuring egg and yolk mass, albumen lysozyme activity, yolk immunoglobulins, yolk androgens and yolk total carotenoids. We found significant variation among populations in most egg components, but ca. 90% of the variation was among individuals within populations. Population however explained 40% of the variation in carotenoid levels. In contrast to our hypothesis, we found geographical trends only in carotenoids, but not in any of the other egg components. Our results thus suggest high within-population variation and leave little scope for local adaptation and genetic differentiation in deposition of different egg components. The role of these maternally-derived resources in evolutionary change should be further investigated.

  5. Geographic Expansion of Lyme Disease in the Southeastern United States, 2000-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lantos, Paul M; Nigrovic, Lise E; Auwaerter, Paul G; Fowler, Vance G; Ruffin, Felicia; Brinkerhoff, R Jory; Reber, Jodi; Williams, Carl; Broyhill, James; Pan, William K; Gaines, David N

    2015-12-01

    Background.  The majority of Lyme disease cases in the United States are acquired on the east coast between northern Virginia and New England. In recent years the geographic extent of Lyme disease has been expanding, raising the prospect of Lyme disease becoming endemic in the southeast. Methods.  We collected confirmed and probable cases of Lyme disease from 2000 through 2014 from the Virginia Department of Health and North Carolina Department of Public Health and entered them in a geographic information system. We performed spatial and spatiotemporal cluster analyses to characterize Lyme disease expansion. Results.  There was a marked increase in Lyme disease cases in Virginia, particularly from 2007 onwards. Northern Virginia experienced intensification and geographic expansion of Lyme disease cases. The most notable area of expansion was to the southwest along the Appalachian Mountains with development of a new disease cluster in the southern Virginia mountain region. Conclusions.  The geographic distribution of Lyme disease cases significantly expanded in Virginia between 2000 and 2014, particularly southward in the Virginia mountain ranges. If these trends continue, North Carolina can expect autochthonous Lyme disease transmission in its mountain region in the coming years.

  6. Sources of trends in water-quality data for selected streams in Texas, 1975-89 water years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schertz, T.L.; Wells, F.C.; Ohe, D.J.

    1994-01-01

    Sources of trends in water-quality data for selected streams in Texas for the 1975-89 water years were investigated in this study. The investigation of sources was confined to distinct geographic patterns in the trend indicators for one constituent or for a group of related constituents.

  7. Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and their methoxylated derivatives in pike from Swedish waters with emphasis on temporal trends, 1967-2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kierkegaard, A.; Bignert, A.; Sellstroem, U.; Olsson, M.; Asplund, L.; Jansson, B.; Wit, C.A. de

    2004-01-01

    Temporal trends of five tetra- to hexabromodiphenyl ethers [BDE47, BDE99, BDE100, BDE153 and BDE154) and two methoxy-tetraBDEs [6-methoxy-2,2',4,4'- tetraBDE (6-MeO-BDE47) and 2'-methoxy-2,3',4,5'- tetraBDE (2'-MeO-BDE68)] in pike from Lake Bolmen for the years 1967-2000, are presented. All BDE congeners show increasing trends up to the mid-1980s (Σ5PBDE from 60 to 1600 pg/g wet weight in 1989, i.e. a more than 25-fold increase), and then decrease or level off. The decreasing trends of PBDEs after the 1980s were considerably slower in the present study than was found in a study of an environmental matrix from the Baltic Proper covering the same time period. This difference suggests local sources near Lake Bolmen. The MeO-BDEs show initially decreasing concentrations, which for 6-MeO-BDE47 continues until the early 1990s. The concentrations of 6-MeO-BDE47 in herring from five locations along the Swedish coast increased from south to north in the Baltic Sea. No correlation between the concentrations of the BDE congeners and the MeO-BDEs was observed, indicating sources other than PBDEs for these compounds. The presence of MeO-BDEs in fish from lakes with different characteristics suggests a natural production not favoured by eutrophication, or dependent on sampling season and geographical location. - PBDEs and MeO-BDEs show different temporal trends in pike from a Swedish lake suggesting different sources

  8. Long-range dependence and sea level forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Ercan, Ali; Abbasov, Rovshan K

    2013-01-01

    This study shows that the Caspian Sea level time series possess long range dependence even after removing linear trends, based on analyses of the Hurst statistic, the sample autocorrelation functions, and the periodogram of the series. Forecasting performance of ARMA, ARIMA, ARFIMA and Trend Line-ARFIMA (TL-ARFIMA) combination models are investigated. The forecast confidence bands and the forecast updating methodology, provided for ARIMA models in the literature, are modified for the ARFIMA models. Sample autocorrelation functions are utilized to estimate the differencing lengths of the ARFIMA

  9. Biological monitoring and selected trends in environmental quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suffern, J.S.; West, D.C.; Kemp, H.T.; Burgess, R.L.

    1976-10-01

    Under a contract with the President's Council on Environmental Quality, the National Inventory of Selected Biological Monitoring Programs at ORNL was used to identify documented environmental trends. Fish population trends were described for the Great Lakes and the Colorado River system. Trends in amphibian populations in the northeast were examined and correlated with acid precipitation. Increases in breeding success among large birds of prey were correlated with reductions in ambient levels of DDT and its residues. Geographic variation in PCB contamination was examined along with differences between aquatic and terrestrial contamination levels. Changes in air quality were documented, and their effects on plant viability were outlined. Trends in the biological effects of environmental deposition of lead were documented. Long-term changes in forest structure in the southeast were presented, and a general reduction in wildlife habitat, associated with land use practices, was documented for several areas in the US

  10. Googling trends in conservation biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proulx, Raphaël; Massicotte, Philippe; Pépino, Marc

    2014-02-01

    Web-crawling approaches, that is, automated programs data mining the internet to obtain information about a particular process, have recently been proposed for monitoring early signs of ecosystem degradation or for establishing crop calendars. However, lack of a clear conceptual and methodological framework has prevented the development of such approaches within the field of conservation biology. Our objective was to illustrate how Google Trends, a freely accessible web-crawling engine, can be used to track changes in timing of biological processes, spatial distribution of invasive species, and level of public awareness about key conservation issues. Google Trends returns the number of internet searches that were made for a keyword in a given region of the world over a defined period. Using data retrieved online for 13 countries, we exemplify how Google Trends can be used to study the timing of biological processes, such as the seasonal recurrence of pollen release or mosquito outbreaks across a latitudinal gradient. We mapped the spatial extent of results from Google Trends for 5 invasive species in the United States and found geographic patterns in invasions that are consistent with their coarse-grained distribution at state levels. From 2004 through 2012, Google Trends showed that the level of public interest and awareness about conservation issues related to ecosystem services, biodiversity, and climate change increased, decreased, and followed both trends, respectively. Finally, to further the development of research approaches at the interface of conservation biology, collective knowledge, and environmental management, we developed an algorithm that allows the rapid retrieval of Google Trends data. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  11. Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year ice survival rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, K.; Bitz, C. M.; Hunke, E. C.; Thompson, L.

    2009-12-01

    The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi-year (MY) ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first-year (FY) sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. We develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of FY and MY ice control various aspects of the sea-ice system. We demonstrate that Arctic sea-ice area and volume behave approximately as first-order autoregressive processes, which allows for a simple interpretation of September sea-ice in which its mean state, variability, and sensitivity to climate forcing can be described naturally in terms of the average survival rates of FY and MY ice. This model, used in concert with a sea-ice simulation that traces FY and MY ice areas to estimate the survival rates, reveals that small trends in the ice survival rates explain the decline in total Arctic ice area, and the relatively larger loss of MY ice area, over the period 1979-2006. Additionally, our model allows for a calculation of the persistence time scales of September area and volume anomalies. A relatively short memory time scale for ice area (~ 1 year) implies that Arctic ice area is nearly in equilibrium with long-term climate forcing at all times, and therefore observed trends in area are a clear indication of a changing climate. A longer memory time scale for ice volume (~ 5 years) suggests that volume can be out of equilibrium with climate forcing for long periods of time, and therefore trends in ice volume are difficult to distinguish from its natural variability. With our reduced model, we demonstrate the connection between memory time scale and sensitivity to climate forcing, and discuss the implications that a changing memory time scale has on the trajectory of ice area and volume in a warming climate. Our findings indicate that it is unlikely that a “tipping point” in September ice area and volume will be

  12. Lithostratigraphy, depositional history and sea level changes of the Cauvery Basin, southern India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muthuvairvasamy Ramkumar

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The sedimentary sequence exposed in the erstwhile Tiruchirapalli district hosts a more or less complete geological record of the Upper Cretaceous-Tertiary period. Systematic field mapping, collation of data on the micro-meso scale lithology, sedimentary structures, petrography, faunal assemblage and facies relationships of these rocks, in the light of modern stratigraphic concepts, helped to enumerate the lithostratigraphic setup and depositional history of the basin. Spatial and temporal variations of the lithologies and revised stratigraphic units are presented in this paper. Many high frequency sea level cycles (presumably fourth or higher order which stack up to form third order sea level cycles (six in number, which in turn form part of second order cycles (two in number, including seven eustatic sea level peaks, have been recorded in this basin. Trend analysis of sea level curves indicates a gradual increase of the sea level from Barremian to Coniacian and a gradual decrease from Coniacian to Danian. Such lasting sea level trends had their influence on the sedimentation pattern and facies association. It is inferred that depositional bathymetry was maintained at a shallow-moderate level, primarily influenced by a lack of major subsidence during the depositional history of this basin. The study also revealed a prevalent simple basin filling process and dominant control by sea level changes, rather than tectonic movements over the depositional regime.

  13. Unraveling Climatic Wind and Wave Trends in the Red Sea Using Wave Spectra Partitioning

    KAUST Repository

    Langodan, Sabique

    2017-12-27

    The wind and wave climatology of the Red Sea is derived from a validated 30-year high-resolution model simulation. After describing the relevant features of the basin, the main wind and wave systems are identified by using an innovative spectral partition technique to explain their genesis and characteristics. In the northern part of the sea, wind and waves of the same intensity are present throughout the year, while the central and southern zones are characterized by a marked seasonality. The partition technique allows the association of a general decrease in the energy of the different wave systems with a specific weather pattern. The most intense decrease is found in the northern storms, which are associated with meteorological pulses from the Mediterranean Sea.

  14. Unraveling Climatic Wind and Wave Trends in the Red Sea Using Wave Spectra Partitioning

    KAUST Repository

    Langodan, Sabique; Cavaleri, Luigi; Pomaro, Angela; Portilla, Jesus; Abualnaja, Yasser; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2017-01-01

    The wind and wave climatology of the Red Sea is derived from a validated 30-year high-resolution model simulation. After describing the relevant features of the basin, the main wind and wave systems are identified by using an innovative spectral partition technique to explain their genesis and characteristics. In the northern part of the sea, wind and waves of the same intensity are present throughout the year, while the central and southern zones are characterized by a marked seasonality. The partition technique allows the association of a general decrease in the energy of the different wave systems with a specific weather pattern. The most intense decrease is found in the northern storms, which are associated with meteorological pulses from the Mediterranean Sea.

  15. Geographic Names

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — The Geographic Names Information System (GNIS), developed by the United States Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Board of Geographic Names, provides...

  16. Observing Arctic Sea Ice from Bow to Screen: Introducing Ice Watch, the Data Network of Near Real-Time and Historic Observations from the Arctic Shipborne Sea Ice Standardization Tool (ASSIST)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlich, A.; Hutchings, J. K.; Green, T. M.

    2013-12-01

    The Ice Watch Program is an open source forum to access in situ Arctic sea ice conditions. It provides the research community and additional stakeholders a convenient resource to monitor sea ice and its role in understanding the Arctic as a system by implementing a standardized observation protocol and hosting a multi-service data portal. International vessels use the Arctic Shipborne Sea Ice Standardization Tool (ASSIST) software to report near-real time sea ice conditions while underway. Essential observations of total ice concentration, distribution of multi-year ice and other ice types, as well as their respective stage of melt are reported. These current and historic sea ice conditions are visualized on interactive maps and in a variety of statistical analyses, and with all data sets available to download for further investigation. The summer of 2012 was the debut of the ASSIST software and the Ice Watch campaign, with research vessels from six nations reporting from a wide spatio-temporal scale spanning from the Beaufort Sea, across the North Pole and Arctic Basin, the coast of Greenland and into the Kara and Barents Seas during mid-season melt and into the first stages of freeze-up. The 2013 summer field season sustained the observation and data archiving record, with participation from some of the same cruises as well as other geographic and seasonal realms covered by new users. These results are presented to illustrate the evolution of the program, increased participation and critical statistics of ice regime change and record of melt and freeze processes revealed by the data. As an ongoing effort, Ice Watch/ASSIST aims to standardize observations of Arctic-specific sea ice features and conditions while utilizing nomenclature and coding based on the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standards and the Antarctic Sea Ice and Processes & Climate (ASPeCt) protocol. Instigated by members of the CliC Sea Ice Working Group, the program has evolved with

  17. The global coastline dataset: the observed relation between erosion and sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donchyts, G.; Baart, F.; Luijendijk, A.; Hagenaars, G.

    2017-12-01

    Erosion of sandy coasts is considered one of the key risks of sea-level rise. Because sandy coastlines of the world are often highly populated, erosive coastline trends result in risk to populations and infrastructure. Most of our understanding of the relation between sea-level rise and coastal erosion is based on local or regional observations and generalizations of numerical and physical experiments. Until recently there was no reliable global scale assessment of the location of sandy coasts and their rate of erosion and accretion. Here we present the global coastline dataset that covers erosion indicators on a local scale with global coverage. The dataset uses our global coastline transects grid defined with an alongshore spacing of 250 m and a cross shore length extending 1 km seaward and 1 km landward. This grid matches up with pre-existing local grids where available. We present the latest results on validation of coastal-erosion trends (based on optical satellites) and classification of sandy versus non-sandy coasts. We show the relation between sea-level rise (based both on tide-gauges and multi-mission satellite altimetry) and observed erosion trends over the last decades, taking into account broken-coastline trends (for example due to nourishments).An interactive web application presents the publicly-accessible results using a backend based on Google Earth Engine. It allows both researchers and stakeholders to use objective estimates of coastline trends, particularly when authoritative sources are not available.

  18. Evaluation of sea level rise in Bohai Bay and associated responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke-Xiu LIU

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Tide gauge data from 1950 to 2015 are used to analyze sea level change, tidal change, return levels, and design tide levels under rising sea level scenarios in Bohai Bay. Results show the following: 1 Since 1950 sea levels in Bohai Bay show a significant rising trend of 3.3 mm per year. The speed has been particularly rapid in 1980–2015 at a rate of 4.7 mm per year. 2 Astronomical tides showed a clear long-term trend in 1950–2015. The amplitude and phase lag of the M2 tide constituent decreased at a rate of 0.21 cm per year and 0.11° per year, respectively and the phase lag of K1 decreased at a rate of 0.09° per year, whereas there was little change in its amplitude. The mean high and low tides increased at a rate of 0.08 and 0.52 cm per year, respectively, whereas the mean tidal range decreased at a rate of 0.44 cm per year. Results from numerical experiments show that local sea level rise plays an important role in the tidal dynamics change in Bohai Bay. 3 It is considered that the sea level return periods will decrease owing to the influence of sea level rise and land subsidence, therefore design tide level will change in relation to sea level rise. Therefore, the ability of seawalls to withstand water will diminish, and storm surge disasters will become more serious in the future.

  19. A New Discrete Element Sea-Ice Model for Earth System Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, Adrian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-03-10

    Sea ice forms a frozen crust of sea water oating in high-latitude oceans. It is a critical component of the Earth system because its formation helps to drive the global thermohaline circulation, and its seasonal waxing and waning in the high north and Southern Ocean signi cantly affects planetary albedo. Usually 4{6% of Earth's marine surface is covered by sea ice at any one time, which limits the exchange of heat, momentum, and mass between the atmosphere and ocean in the polar realms. Snow accumulates on sea ice and inhibits its vertical growth, increases its albedo, and contributes to pooled water in melt ponds that darken the Arctic ice surface in the spring. Ice extent and volume are subject to strong seasonal, inter-annual and hemispheric variations, and climatic trends, which Earth System Models (ESMs) are challenged to simulate accurately (Stroeve et al., 2012; Stocker et al., 2013). This is because there are strong coupled feedbacks across the atmosphere-ice-ocean boundary layers, including the ice-albedo feedback, whereby a reduced ice cover leads to increased upper ocean heating, further enhancing sea-ice melt and reducing incident solar radiation re ected back into the atmosphere (Perovich et al., 2008). A reduction in perennial Arctic sea-ice during the satellite era has been implicated in mid-latitude weather changes, including over North America (Overland et al., 2015). Meanwhile, most ESMs have been unable to simulate observed inter-annual variability and trends in Antarctic sea-ice extent during the same period (Gagne et al., 2014).

  20. Trends in energy efficiency in countries of the Mediterranean Rim

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-04-01

    This report describes trends in energy efficiency in four countries of the southern side of the Mediterranean Sea (Algeria, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia) and five Mediterranean European countries (France, Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal). This study is based on energy efficiency indicators per sector of energy consumption as they are developed within the frame of the MEDENER project for the four southern countries and of the ODYSSEE-MURE project for the European countries. The report presents the context of energy efficiency (challenges and objectives, trends in energy consumption, primary and final intensities), discusses trends of energy efficiency in the transformation sector, in the housing sector, in the transport sector (trends in consumption, road and air transport), in the industry (sector intensities), in the tertiary sector (global trends, sector indicators), and in agriculture and fishing (global trends and sector indicators)

  1. Bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants in female common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) and harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) from western European seas: Geographical trends, causal factors and effects on reproduction and mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pierce, G.J. [School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ (United Kingdom); Instituto Espanol de Oceanografia, Centro Oceanografico de Vigo, P.O. Box 1552, 36200, Vigo (Spain)], E-mail: g.j.pierce@abdn.ac.uk; Santos, M.B. [School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ (United Kingdom); Instituto Espanol de Oceanografia, Centro Oceanografico de Vigo, P.O. Box 1552, 36200, Vigo (Spain); Murphy, S. [AFDC, Department of Zoology, Ecology and Plant Science, University College, National University of Ireland, Enterprise Centre, North Mall, Cork (Ireland); Sea Mammal Research Unit, Gatty Marine Laboratory, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Fife KY16 8LB (United Kingdom); Learmonth, J.A. [School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ (United Kingdom); Zuur, A.F. [Highland Statistics, 6 Laverock Road, Newburgh, Aberdeenshire AB41 6FN (United Kingdom); Rogan, E. [AFDC, Department of Zoology, Ecology and Plant Science, University College, National University of Ireland, Enterprise Centre, North Mall, Cork (Ireland); Bustamante, P.; Caurant, F. [Centre de Recherche sur les Ecosystemes Littoraux Anthropises, UMR 6217 CNRS-IFREMER-Universite de la Rochelle, 22 avenue Michel Crepeau, 17042 La Rochelle (France); Lahaye, V. [School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ (United Kingdom); Centre de Recherche sur les Ecosystemes Littoraux Anthropises, UMR 6217 CNRS-IFREMER-Universite de la Rochelle, 22 avenue Michel Crepeau, 17042 La Rochelle (France); Ridoux, V. [Centre de Recherche sur les Ecosystemes Littoraux Anthropises, UMR 6217 CNRS-IFREMER-Universite de la Rochelle, 22 avenue Michel Crepeau, 17042 La Rochelle (France); Zegers, B.N.; Mets, A. [Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), P.O. Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg, Texel (Netherlands)] (and others)

    2008-05-15

    Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in blubber of female common dolphins and harbour porpoises from the Atlantic coast of Europe were frequently above the threshold at which effects on reproduction could be expected, in 40% and 47% of cases respectively. This rose to 74% for porpoises from the southern North Sea. PCB concentrations were also high in southern North Sea fish. The average pregnancy rate recorded in porpoises (42%) in the study area was lower than in the western Atlantic but that in common dolphins (25%) was similar to that of the western Atlantic population. Porpoises that died from disease or parasitic infection had higher concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) than animals dying from other causes. Few of the common dolphins sampled had died from disease or parasitic infection. POP profiles in common dolphin blubber were related to individual feeding history while those in porpoises were more strongly related to condition. - High PCB levels were recorded in porpoises and common dolphins from European coasts.

  2. Bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants in female common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) and harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) from western European seas: Geographical trends, causal factors and effects on reproduction and mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierce, G.J.; Santos, M.B.; Murphy, S.; Learmonth, J.A.; Zuur, A.F.; Rogan, E.; Bustamante, P.; Caurant, F.; Lahaye, V.; Ridoux, V.; Zegers, B.N.; Mets, A.

    2008-01-01

    Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in blubber of female common dolphins and harbour porpoises from the Atlantic coast of Europe were frequently above the threshold at which effects on reproduction could be expected, in 40% and 47% of cases respectively. This rose to 74% for porpoises from the southern North Sea. PCB concentrations were also high in southern North Sea fish. The average pregnancy rate recorded in porpoises (42%) in the study area was lower than in the western Atlantic but that in common dolphins (25%) was similar to that of the western Atlantic population. Porpoises that died from disease or parasitic infection had higher concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) than animals dying from other causes. Few of the common dolphins sampled had died from disease or parasitic infection. POP profiles in common dolphin blubber were related to individual feeding history while those in porpoises were more strongly related to condition. - High PCB levels were recorded in porpoises and common dolphins from European coasts

  3. Isolation and characterization of microsatellite loci from the Australasian sea snake, Aipysurus laevis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukoschek, Vimoksalehi; Waycott, Michelle; Dunshea, Glenn

    2005-01-01

    We developed 13 microsatellite loci for the olive sea snake, Aipysurus laevis, using both enriched and unenriched genomic DNA libraries. Eleven codominant loci, that reliably amplified, were used to screen 32 individuals across the geographic range of A. laevis. Four loci had four or more alleles...... (maximum 12), whereas the other seven had either two or three. All but one locus was in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. These loci will provide useful markers to investigate population genetic structure for the olive sea snake....

  4. The tropical African hermit crab Pagurus mbizi (Crustacea, Decapoda, Paguridae in the Western Mediterranean Sea: a new alien species or filling gaps in the knowledge of the distribution?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. GARCIA RASO

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available We report the first occurrence in the European Mediterranean Sea of a tropical Atlantic hermit crab, Pagurus mbizi (Forest, 1955, based on the capture of twenty specimens (all sizes and ovigerous females collected along the northern shores of the Alboran Sea, which proof the existence of a well-established population of this species, and the importance of this geographic area as a transitional and settlement zone for Atlantic species, which makes the Alboran Sea one of the richest marine biodiversity areas in the Mediterranean Sea. Some morphological comparative data with the closely related hermit crab Pagurus pubescentulus are given. In addition, data on its habitat and geographical distribution, as well as the probable pathways of introduction, are commented.

  5. Thermal Limits and Thresholds of Red Sea Biota

    KAUST Repository

    Chaidez, Veronica

    2018-05-01

    As ocean temperatures continue to rise, the effect of temperature on marine organisms becomes highly relevant. The Red Sea is the warmest sea and is rapidly warming with current surface temperatures (28 – 34 °C) already exceeding those of most tropical systems. This has major consequences for organisms that may already find themselves at their thermal limits. The aim of this project was to define the thermal limits and thresholds of certain Red Sea species. Firstly, to better understand the thermal regimes of the Red Sea, we looked at decadal trends in maximum sea surface temperature across the basin. Then, we tested the thermal capacities of Red Sea mangroves and zooplankton, two key ecological groups, by performing thermal stress experiments in the laboratory. We found that the Red Sea basin is warming faster than the global average (0.17 °C decade-1), the thermal limit of mangrove propagules is between 33 and 35 °C, and the limits among the most common zooplankton groups range from 30 to 36 °C. This project gives us a better understanding of how organisms respond to extreme temperatures and how they may be affected in a future, warmer, ocean.

  6. Balance of anthropogenic radionuclides in the Japan Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuneyama, Teppei; Ito, Toshimichi; Otosaka, Shigeyoshi

    2007-01-01

    Concentration data of 90 Sr, 137 Cs and 239+240 Pu between 1960 and 2002 were examined to estimate the balance of anthropogenic radionuclides in water of the Japan Sea. Until 1960s, they had accumulated mainly in the upper layer of the Japan Sea. After that, the amount of the radionuclides decreased as a result of termination of global fallout and exchange of surface water. The trend turned into increase since 1980s and the amounts will continue to increase for a while. (author)

  7. Millennial, centennial and decadal sea- level change in Florida, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, A.; Hawkes, A. D.; Donnelly, J. P.; Horton, B. P.

    2012-12-01

    -isostatic subsidence to reveal climate-related sea level variability. The proxy dataset reproduces trends recorded by reliable nearby tide gauges at Fernandina Beach, FL and Fort Pulaski, GA and indicates that modern rates of rise were initiated in the latest part of the 19th century and are greater than any persistent trend in the last 2000 years.

  8. FY 2015 Report: Developing Remote Sensing Capabilities for Meter-Scale Sea Ice Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    albedo retrieval from MERIS data–Part 2: Case studies and trends of sea ice albedo and melt ponds in the Arctic for years 2002–2011. The Cryosphere, 9...and spectral sea ice albedo retrieval from MERIS data-Part 1: Validation against in situ, aerial, and ship cruise data. The Cryosphere, 9, 1551-1566. ...1 FY 2015 Report: Developing Remote Sensing Capabilities for Meter-Scale Sea Ice Properties Chris Polashenski USACE-CRREL Building 4070

  9. ROMANIA: GEOGRAPHICAL AND GEOPOLITICAL POSITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciprian Beniamin Benea

    2016-12-01

    Romania is identified in population reduction’s number, in missing trust in her successful evolution, falling agriculture and deforestation. All these negative aspects have pushed back Romania from geopolitical point of view. As solution for regaining its geopolitical role, Romanian must have an educated population, which would be conscious about the important connection between geography and education, and between Romania’s geographical position and the needed tools for promoting it from geopolitical point of view. Cough between East and West, Romania belongs to both areas; much more, in the context of climate change, Romania’s land, fresh water, and cheap water transport possibilities on Danube and Black Sea (and well beyond it must be used at their real capacities. Only in that moment Romania’s special geographical position will made Romania an active geopolitical actor, helping Romanians to determine its fate in a sustainable manner.

  10. PROBLEMS OF SEA-GOING NAVIGATION IN KERCI STRAIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. ŞTEFAN

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Kerch Strait was the main passage between the Azov Sea and the Black Sea.The passage of ships through the strait is hampered by several physical and geographical factors: emerged and submerged morphology, the climatic and hydrological parameters. As a result of the extremely low depths of the strait, for the safety of navigation, authorities have been forced to dredge a canal for passage of the vessels with a medium draft, to make a properly hydrographical develop¬ment of the fairway and of the shores, and to establish a favorable anchoring area etc. Ice, which occurs in winter, makes the navigation very difficult, which takes place in convoys, preceded by ice breakers. Fog, frequent in the transitional seasons, hampered navigation; many accidents happened because of this inconvenience. Most accidents due to weather conditions (fog, wind are specific to smaller vessels, sea-river type, which are sailing in the area and which, due to their construction, are not able to deal with exceptional weather conditions at sea. The existence of surface currents, with the dominant direction north-south, from the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea, affects navigation only around the heads where cau¬ses circular currents. In this case are affected only pleasure boats and low powered vessel. With all these impediments to navigation, the Kerch Strait is an important waterway, especially for the countries bordering the Sea of Azov: Ukraine and the Russian Federation, and also for the countries from the Black Sea basin.

  11. Geographic and demographic correlates of autism-related anti-vaccine beliefs on Twitter, 2009-15.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomeny, Theodore S; Vargo, Christopher J; El-Toukhy, Sherine

    2017-10-01

    This study examines temporal trends, geographic distribution, and demographic correlates of anti-vaccine beliefs on Twitter, 2009-2015. A total of 549,972 tweets were downloaded and coded for the presence of anti-vaccine beliefs through a machine learning algorithm. Tweets with self-disclosed geographic information were resolved and United States Census data were collected for corresponding areas at the micropolitan/metropolitan level. Trends in number of anti-vaccine tweets were examined at the national and state levels over time. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to determine census variables that were correlated with anti-vaccination tweet volume. Fifty percent of our sample of 549,972 tweets collected between 2009 and 2015 contained anti-vaccine beliefs. Anti-vaccine tweet volume increased after vaccine-related news coverage. California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, and Pennsylvania had anti-vaccination tweet volume that deviated from the national average. Demographic characteristics explained 67% of variance in geographic clustering of anti-vaccine tweets, which were associated with a larger population and higher concentrations of women who recently gave birth, households with high income levels, men aged 40 to 44, and men with minimal college education. Monitoring anti-vaccination beliefs on Twitter can uncover vaccine-related concerns and misconceptions, serve as an indicator of shifts in public opinion, and equip pediatricians to refute anti-vaccine arguments. Real-time interventions are needed to counter anti-vaccination beliefs online. Identifying clusters of anti-vaccination beliefs can help public health professionals disseminate targeted/tailored interventions to geographic locations and demographic sectors of the population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Long-term variability of extreme waves in the Caspian, Black, Azov and Baltic Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobroliubov, Sergey

    2013-04-01

    In order to study extreme storm waves in the Caspian, Black, Azov and Baltic Sea we used the spectral wave model SWAN. Significant wave height, swell and sea height, direction of propagation, their length and period were calculated with the NCEP/NCAR (1,9°x1,9°, 4-daily) reanalysis wind forcing from 1948 to 2010 in the Caspian, Black and Baltic Seas and with the NCEP/CFSR (0,3°x0,3°, 1 hour) for the period from 1979 to 2010 in the Azov Sea. The calculations were performed on supercomputers of Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU). The spatial resolution of the numerical grid was of order 5 km for the Caspian, Baltic and Black Seas, 2 km for the Azov Sea. These model wave hindcasts were used to calculate interannual and seasonal variability of the storm frequency, location and duration. The Initial Distribution Method and Annual Maxima Series Methods were used to study probable waves of a century reoccurrence. The long-term variability of extreme waves revealed different trends in the investigated seas. The Caspian and Azov seas decreased the storm activity, while in the Baltic Sea the number of storm cases increased and the Black Sea showed no significant trend. The of more than 12 m were observed in two centers in the middle part of the Caspian Sea and in the center of the Baltic Sea. In the Black Sea the extreme waves of the same probability of more than 14 m were found in the region to the south of the Crimean peninsula. In the Azov Sea the highest waves of a century reoccurrence do not exceed 5 m. The work was done in Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory, MSU under contract G.34.31.0007.

  13. Snow Accumulation Variability Over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Since 1900: A Comparison of Ice Core Records With ERA-20C Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yetang; Thomas, Elizabeth R.; Hou, Shugui; Huai, Baojuan; Wu, Shuangye; Sun, Weijun; Qi, Shanzhong; Ding, Minghu; Zhang, Yulun

    2017-11-01

    This study uses a set of 37 firn core records over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) to test the performance of the twentieth century from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-20C) reanalysis for snow accumulation and quantify temporal variability in snow accumulation since 1900. The firn cores are allocated to four geographical areas demarcated by drainage divides (i.e., Antarctic Peninsula (AP), western WAIS, central WAIS, and eastern WAIS) to calculate stacked records of regional snow accumulation. Our results show that the interannual variability in ERA-20C precipitation minus evaporation (P - E) agrees well with the corresponding ice core snow accumulation composites in each of the four geographical regions, suggesting its skill for simulating snow accumulation changes before the modern satellite era (pre-1979). Snow accumulation experiences significantly positive trends for the AP and eastern WAIS, a negative trend for the western WAIS, and no significant trend for the central WAIS from 1900 to 2010. The contrasting trends are associated with changes in the large-scale moisture transport driven by a deepening of the low-pressure systems and anomalies of sea ice in the Amundsen Sea Low region.

  14. Identification of fucans from four species of sea cucumber by high temperature 1H NMR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Nian; Chen, Shiguo; Ye, Xingqian; Li, Guoyun; Yin, Li'ang; Xue, Changhu

    2014-10-01

    Acidic polysaccharide, which has various biological activities, is one of the most important components of sea cucumber. In the present study, crude polysaccharide was extracted from four species of sea cucumber from three different geographical zones, Pearsonothuria graeffei ( Pg) from Indo-Pacific, Holothuria vagabunda ( Hv) from Norwegian Coast, Stichopus tremulu ( St) from Western Indian Ocean, and Isostichopus badionotu ( Ib) from Western Atlantic. The polysaccharide extract was separated and purified with a cellulose DEAE anion-exchange column to obtain corresponding sea cucumber fucans (SC-Fucs). The chemical property of these SC-Fucs, including molecular weight, monosaccharide composition and sulfate content, was determined. Their structure was compared simply with fourier infrared spectrum analyzer and identified with high temperature 1H nuclear magnetic resonance spectrum analyzer (NMR) and room temperature 13C NMR. The results indicated that Fuc- Pg obtained from the torrid zone mainly contained 2,4-O-disulfated and non-sulfated fucose residue, whereas Fuc- Ib from the temperate zone contained non-, 2-O- and 2,4-O-disulfated fucose residue; Fuc- St from the frigid zone and Fuc- Hv from the torrid zone contained mainly non-sulfated fucose residue. The proton of SC-Fucs was better resolved via high temperature 1H NMR than via room temperature 1H NMR. The fingerprint of sea cucumber in different sea regions was established based on the index of anomer hydrogen signal in SC-Fucs. Further work will help to understand whether there exists a close relationship between the geographical area of sea cucumber and the sulfation pattern of SC-Fucs.

  15. QUANTIFYING REGIONAL SEA LEVEL RISE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diandong Ren

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study projects the sea level contribution from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS through to 2100, using a recently developed ice dynamics model forced by atmospheric parameters derived from three different climate models (CGCMs. The geographical pattern of the near-surface ice warming imposes a divergent flow field favoring mass loss through enhanced ice flow. The calculated average mass loss rate during the latter half of the 21st century is ~0.64±0.06 mm/year eustatic sea level rise, which is significantly larger than the IPCC AR4 estimate from surface mass balance. The difference is due largely to the positive feedbacks from reduced ice viscosity and the basal sliding mechanism present in the ice dynamics model. This inter-model, inter-scenario spread adds approximately a 20% uncertainty to the IPCC ice model estimates. The sea level rise is geographically non-uniform and reaches 1.69±0.24 mm/year by 2100 for the northeast coastal region of the United States, amplified by the expected weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC. In contrast to previous estimates, which neglected the GrIS fresh water input, both sides of the North Atlantic Gyre are projected to experience sea level rises. The impacts on a selection of major cities on both sides of the Atlantic and in the Pacific and southern oceans also are assessed. The other ocean basins are found to be less affected than the Atlantic Ocean.

  16. Geographic Media Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukinbeal, Chris

    2014-01-01

    While the use of media permeates geographic research and pedagogic practice, the underlying literacies that link geography and media remain uncharted. This article argues that geographic media literacy incorporates visual literacy, information technology literacy, information literacy, and media literacy. Geographic media literacy is the ability…

  17. Tracking sea turtles in the Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Kristin M.

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of conducting research on threatened, endangered, and at-risk species inhabiting both terrestrial and marine environments, particularly those found within national parks and protected areas. In the coastal Gulf of Mexico region, for example, USGS scientist Donna Shaver at Padre Island National Seashore in Texas has focused on “headstarting” hatchlings of the rare Kemp’s ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys kempii). She is also analyzing trends in sea turtle strandings onshore and interactions with Gulf shrimp fisheries. Along south Florida’s Gulf coast, the USGS has focused on research and monitoring for managing the greater Everglades ecosystem. One novel project involves the endangered green sea turtle (Chelonia mydas). The ecology and movements of adult green turtles are reasonably well understood, largely due to decades of nesting beach monitoring by a network of researchers and volunteers. In contrast, relatively little is known about the habitat requirements and movements of juvenile and subadult sea turtles of any species in their aquatic environment.

  18. Geographical and Temporal Variations in Female Breast Cancer Mortality in the Municipalities of Andalusia (Southern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ocaña-Riola, Ricardo; Montaño-Remacha, Carmen; Mayoral-Cortés, José María

    2016-01-01

    The last published figures have shown geographical variations in mortality with respect to female breast cancer in European countries. However, national health policies need a dynamic image of the geographical variations within the country. The aim of this paper was to describe the spatial distribution of age-specific mortality rates from female breast cancer in the municipalities of Andalusia (southern Spain) and to analyze its evolution over time from 1981 to 2012. An ecological study was devised. Two spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian models were estimated. One of these was used to estimate the age-specific mortality rate for each municipality, together with its time trends, and the other was used to estimate the age-specific rate ratio compared with Spain as a whole. The results showed that 98% of the municipalities exhibited a decreasing or a flat mortality trend for all the age groups. In 2012, the geographical variability of the age-specific mortality rates was small, especially for population groups below 65. In addition, more than 96.6% of the municipalities showed an age-specific mortality rate similar to the corresponding rate for Spain, and there were no identified significant clusters. This information will contribute towards a reflection on the past, present and future of breast cancer outcomes in Andalusia. PMID:27879690

  19. Regulation of CO2 Air Sea Fluxes by Sediments in the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burt, William; Thomas, Helmuth; Hagens, Mathilde; Brenner, Heiko; Pätsch, Johannes; Clargo, Nicola; Salt, Lesley

    2016-04-01

    A multi-tracer approach is applied to assess the impact of boundary fluxes (e.g. benthic input from sediments or lateral inputs from the coastline) on the acid-base buffering capacity, and overall biogeochemistry, of the North Sea. Analyses of both basin-wide observations in the North Sea and transects through tidal basins at the North-Frisian coastline, reveal that surface distributions of the δ13C signature of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) are predominantly controlled by a balance between biological production and respiration. In particular, variability in metabolic DIC throughout stations in the well-mixed southern North Sea indicates the presence of an external carbon source, which is traced to the European continental coastline using naturally-occurring radium isotopes (224Ra and 228Ra). 228Ra is also shown to be a highly effective tracer of North Sea total alkalinity (AT) compared to the more conventional use of salinity. Coastal inputs of metabolic DIC and AT are calculated on a basin-wide scale, and ratios of these inputs suggest denitrification as a primary metabolic pathway for their formation. The AT input paralleling the metabolic DIC release prevents a significant decline in pH as compared to aerobic (i.e. unbuffered) release of metabolic DIC. Finally, long-term pH trends mimic those of riverine nitrate loading, highlighting the importance of coastal AT production via denitrification in regulating pH in the southern North Sea.

  20. Connectivity of larval cod in the transition area between North Sea and Baltic Sea and potential implications for fisheries management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huwer, Bastian; Hinrichsen, H.-H.; Hüssy, Karin

    2016-01-01

    in the transition area between North Sea and Baltic were investigated to (i) determine long-term trends and variability in advective transport of larvae from spawning grounds to juvenile nursery areas, (ii) estimate the degree of exchange between different management areas, and (iii) compare the results...

  1. Trends in Ocean Colour and Chlorophyll Concentration from 1889 to 2000, Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wernand, Marcel R.; van der Woerd, Hendrik J.; Gieskes, Winfried W. C.

    2013-01-01

    Marine primary productivity is an important agent in the global cycling of carbon dioxide, a major ‘greenhouse gas’, and variations in the concentration of the ocean's phytoplankton biomass can therefore explain trends in the global carbon budget. Since the launch of satellite-mounted sensors globe-wide monitoring of chlorophyll, a phytoplankton biomass proxy, became feasible. Just as satellites, the Forel-Ule (FU) scale record (a hardly explored database of ocean colour) has covered all seas and oceans – but already since 1889. We provide evidence that changes of ocean surface chlorophyll can be reconstructed with confidence from this record. The EcoLight radiative transfer numerical model indicates that the FU index is closely related to chlorophyll concentrations in open ocean regions. The most complete FU record is that of the North Atlantic in terms of coverage over space and in time; this dataset has been used to test the validity of colour changes that can be translated to chlorophyll. The FU and FU-derived chlorophyll data were analysed for monotonously increasing or decreasing trends with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, a method to establish the presence of a consistent trend. Our analysis has not revealed a globe-wide trend of increase or decrease in chlorophyll concentration during the past century; ocean regions have apparently responded differentially to changes in meteorological, hydrological and biological conditions at the surface, including potential long-term trends related to global warming. Since 1889, chlorophyll concentrations have decreased in the Indian Ocean and in the Pacific; increased in the Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean, the Chinese Sea, and in the seas west and north-west of Japan. This suggests that explanations of chlorophyll changes over long periods should focus on hydrographical and biological characteristics typical of single ocean regions, not on those of ‘the’ ocean. PMID:23776435

  2. Arctic Climate Variability and Trends from Satellite Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuanji Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Arctic climate has been changing rapidly since the 1980s. This work shows distinctly different patterns of change in winter, spring, and summer for cloud fraction and surface temperature. Satellite observations over 1982–2004 have shown that the Arctic has warmed up and become cloudier in spring and summer, but cooled down and become less cloudy in winter. The annual mean surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.34°C per decade. The decadal rates of cloud fraction trends are −3.4%, 2.3%, and 0.5% in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. Correspondingly, annually averaged surface albedo has decreased at a decadal rate of −3.2%. On the annual average, the trend of cloud forcing at the surface is −2.11 W/m2 per decade, indicating a damping effect on the surface warming by clouds. The decreasing sea ice albedo and surface warming tend to modulate cloud radiative cooling effect in spring and summer. Arctic sea ice has also declined substantially with decadal rates of −8%, −5%, and −15% in sea ice extent, thickness, and volume, respectively. Significant correlations between surface temperature anomalies and climate indices, especially the Arctic Oscillation (AO index, exist over some areas, implying linkages between global climate change and Arctic climate change.

  3. Polar Sea Ice Monitoring Using HY-2A Scatterometer Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingming Li

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available A sea ice detection algorithm based on Fisher’s linear discriminant analysis is developed to segment sea ice and open water for the Ku-band scatterometer onboard the China’s Hai Yang 2A Satellite (HY-2A/SCAT. Residual classification errors are reduced through image erosion/dilation techniques and sea ice growth/retreat constraint methods. The arctic sea-ice-type classification is estimated via a time-dependent threshold derived from the annual backscatter trends based on previous HY-2A/SCAT derived sea ice extent. The extent and edge of the sea ice obtained in this study is compared with the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS sea ice concentration data and the Sentinel-1 SAR imagery for verification, respectively. Meanwhile, the classified sea ice type is compared with a multi-sensor sea ice type product based on data from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT and SSMIS. Results show that HY-2A/SCAT is powerful in providing sea ice extent and type information, while differences in the sensitivities of active/passive products are found. In addition, HY-2A/SCAT derived sea ice products are also proved to be valuable complements for existing polar sea ice data products.

  4. Recent changes in the summer monsoon circulation and their impact on dynamics and thermodynamics of the Arabian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratik, Kad; Parekh, Anant; Karmakar, Ananya; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

    2018-05-01

    The present study examines changes in the low-level summer monsoon circulation over the Arabian Sea and their impact on the ocean dynamics using reanalysis data. The study confirms intensification and northward migration of low-level jet during 1979 to 2015. Further during the study period, an increase in the Arabian Sea upper ocean heat content is found in spite of a decreasing trend in the net surface heat flux, indicating the possible role of ocean dynamics in the upper ocean warming. Increase in the anti-cyclonic wind stress curl associated with the change in the monsoon circulation induces downwelling over the central Arabian Sea, favoring upper ocean warming. The decreasing trend of southward Ekman transport, a mechanism transporting heat from the land-locked north Indian Ocean to southern latitudes, also supports increasing trend of the upper ocean heat content. To reinstate and quantify the role of changing monsoon circulation in increasing the heat content over the Arabian Sea, sensitivity experiment is carried out using ocean general circulation model. In this experiment, the model is forced by inter-annual momentum forcing while rest of the forcing is climatological. Experiment reveals that the changing monsoon circulation increases the upper ocean heat content, effectively by enhancing downwelling processes and reducing southward heat transport, which strongly endorses our hypothesis that changing ocean dynamics associated with low-level monsoon circulation is causing the increasing trend in the heat content of the Arabian Sea.

  5. Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and their methoxylated derivatives in pike from Swedish waters with emphasis on temporal trends, 1967-2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kierkegaard, A; Bignert, A; Sellström, U; Olsson, M; Asplund, L; Jansson, B; De Wit, C A

    2004-07-01

    Temporal trends of five tetra- to hexabromodiphenyl ethers [BDE47, BDE99, BDE100, BDE153 and BDE154) and two methoxy-tetraBDEs [6-methoxy-2,2',4,4'- tetraBDE (6-MeO-BDE47) and 2'-methoxy-2,3',4,5'- tetraBDE (2'-MeO-BDE68)] in pike from Lake Bolmen for the years 1967-2000, are presented. All BDE congeners show increasing trends up to the mid-1980s (Sigma5PBDE from 60 to 1600 pg/g wet weight in 1989, i.e. a more than 25-fold increase), and then decrease or level off. The decreasing trends of PBDEs after the 1980s were considerably slower in the present study than was found in a study of an environmental matrix from the Baltic Proper covering the same time period. This difference suggests local sources near Lake Bolmen. The MeO-BDEs show initially decreasing concentrations, which for 6-MeO-BDE47 continues until the early 1990s. The concentrations of 6-MeO-BDE47 in herring from five locations along the Swedish coast increased from south to north in the Baltic Sea. No correlation between the concentrations of the BDE congeners and the MeO-BDEs was observed, indicating sources other than PBDEs for these compounds. The presence of MeO-BDEs in fish from lakes with different characteristics suggests a natural production not favoured by eutrophication, or dependent on sampling season and geographical location.

  6. Large-scale environmental effects and ecological processes in the Baltic Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wulff, F.

    1990-11-01

    A Swedish research programme concerning the Baltic Sea is initiated by the SNV to produce budgets and models of eutrophying substances (nitrogen, phosphorus, silicate, some organic substances) and toxic substances (PCB, lindane and PAH). A description of the distribution and turnover of these substances including their transformation will be necessary in the evaluation of critical processes controlling concentrations in relation to external load. A geographical information system will be made available as a database and analytical tool for all participants (BED, Baltic Ecosystem Data). This project is designed around cooperation between the Baltic Sea countries. (au)

  7. Mesopause region temperature variability and its trend in southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venturini, Mateus S.; Bageston, José V.; Caetano, Nattan R.; Peres, Lucas V.; Bencherif, Hassan; Schuch, Nelson J.

    2018-03-01

    Nowadays, the study of the upper atmosphere is increasing, mostly because of the need to understand the patterns of Earth's atmosphere. Since studies on global warming have become very important for the development of new technologies, understanding all regions of the atmosphere becomes an unavoidable task. In this paper, we aim to analyze the temperature variability and its trend in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region during a period of 12 years (from 2003 to 2014). For this purpose, three different heights, i.e., 85, 90 and 95 km, were focused on in order to investigate the upper atmosphere, and a geographic region different to other studies was chosen, in the southern region of Brazil, centered in the city of Santa Maria, RS (29°41'02'' S; 53°48'25'' W). In order to reach the objectives of this work, temperature data from the SABER instrument (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry), aboard NASA's Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics (TIMED) satellite, were used. Finally, two cases were studied related to distinct grids of latitude/longitude used to obtain the mean temperature profiles. The first case considered a grid of 20° × 20° lat/long, centered in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. In the second case, the region was reduced to a size of 15° × 15° in order to compare the results and discuss the two cases in terms of differences or similarities in temperature trends. Observations show that the size of the geographical area used for the average temperature profiles can influence the results of variability and trend of the temperature. In addition, reducing the time duration of analyses from 24 to 12 h a day also influences the trend significantly. For the smaller geographical region (15° × 15°) and the 12 h daily time window (09:00-21:00 UT) it was found that the main contributions for the temperature variability at the three heights were the annual and semi-annual cycles and the solar flux influence

  8. Nudging the Arctic Ocean to quantify Arctic sea ice feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekker, Evelien; Severijns, Camiel; Bintanja, Richard

    2017-04-01

    It is well-established that the Arctic is warming 2 to 3 time faster than rest of the planet. One of the great uncertainties in climate research is related to what extent sea ice feedbacks amplify this (seasonally varying) Arctic warming. Earlier studies have analyzed existing climate model output using correlations and energy budget considerations in order to quantify sea ice feedbacks through indirect methods. From these analyses it is regularly inferred that sea ice likely plays an important role, but details remain obscure. Here we will take a different and a more direct approach: we will keep the sea ice constant in a sensitivity simulation, using a state-of -the-art climate model (EC-Earth), applying a technique that has never been attempted before. This experimental technique involves nudging the temperature and salinity of the ocean surface (and possibly some layers below to maintain the vertical structure and mixing) to a predefined prescribed state. When strongly nudged to existing (seasonally-varying) sea surface temperatures, ocean salinity and temperature, we force the sea ice to remain in regions/seasons where it is located in the prescribed state, despite the changing climate. Once we obtain fixed' sea ice, we will run a future scenario, for instance 2 x CO2 with and without prescribed sea ice, with the difference between these runs providing a measure as to what extent sea ice contributes to Arctic warming, including the seasonal and geographical imprint of the effects.

  9. 129I/127I ratios in Scottish coastal surface sea water: Geographical and temporal responses to changing emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schnabel, Christoph; Olive, Valerie; Atarashi-Andoh, Mariko; Dougans, Andrew; Ellam, Robert M.; Freeman, Stewart; Maden, Colin; Stocker, Martin; Synal, Hans-Arno; Wacker, Lukas; Xu Sheng

    2007-01-01

    This work constitutes the first survey of I isotope ratios for Scottish sea water including the first data for the west of Scotland. These data are of importance because of the proximity to the world's second largest emission source of 129 I to the sea, the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant, because of the increasing importance of the sea to land transfer of 129 I and also as input data for dose estimates based on this pathway of 129 I. 129 I/ 127 I ratios in SW Scotland reached 3 x 10 -6 in 2004. No strong variation of I isotope ratios was found from 2003 to 2005 in Scottish sea waters. Iodine isotope ratios increased by about a factor of 6 from 1992 to 2003 in NE Scotland, in agreement with the increase of liquid 129 I emissions from Sellafield over that time period. It is demonstrated that 129 I/ 127 I ratios agree better than 129 I concentrations for samples from similar locations taken in very close temporal proximity, indicating that this ratio is more appropriate to interpret than the radionuclide concentration

  10. Trends in family tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heike A. Schänzel

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – Families represent a large and growing market for the tourism industry. Family tourism is driven by the increasing importance placed on promoting family togetherness, keeping family bonds alive and creating family memories. Predictions for the future of family travel are shaped by changes in demography and social structures. With global mobility families are increasingly geographically dispersed and new family markets are emerging. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the trends that shape the understanding of families and family tourism. Design/methodology/approach – This paper examines ten trends that the authors as experts in the field identify of importance and significance for the future of family tourism. Findings – What emerges is that the future of family tourism lies in capturing the increasing heterogeneity, fluidity and mobility of the family market. Originality/value – The paper contributes to the understanding about the changes taking place in family tourism and what it means to the tourism industry in the future.

  11. A Multi-Faceted Approach to Analyse the Effects of Environmental Variables on Geographic Range and Genetic Structure of a Perennial Psammophilous Geophyte: The Case of the Sea Daffodil Pancratium maritimum L. in the Mediterranean Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Castro, Olga; Di Maio, Antonietta; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Imparato, Gennaro; Innangi, Michele; Véla, Errol; Menale, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The Mediterranean coastline is a dynamic and complex system which owes its complexity to its past and present vicissitudes, e.g. complex tectonic history, climatic fluctuations, and prolonged coexistence with human activities. A plant species that is widespread in this habitat is the sea daffodil, Pancratium maritimum (Amaryllidaceae), which is a perennial clonal geophyte of the coastal sands of the Mediterranean and neighbouring areas, well adapted to the stressful conditions of sand dune environments. In this study, an integrated approach was used, combining genetic and environmental data with a niche modelling approach, aimed to investigate: (1) the effect of climate change on the geographic range of this species at different times {past (last inter-glacial, LIG; and last glacial maximum, LGM), present (CURR), near-future (FUT)} and (2) the possible influence of environmental variables on the genetic structure of this species in the current period. The genetic results show that 48 sea daffodil populations (867 specimens) display a good genetic diversity in which the marginal populations (i.e. Atlantic Sea populations) present lower values. Recent genetic signature of bottleneck was detected in few populations (8%). The molecular variation was higher within the populations (77%) and two genetic pools were well represented. Comparing the different climatic simulations in time, the global range of this plant increased, and a further extension is foreseen in the near future thanks to projections on the climate of areas currently-more temperate, where our model suggested a forecast for a climate more similar to the Mediterranean coast. A significant positive correlation was observed between the genetic distance and Precipitation of Coldest Quarter variable in current periods. Our analyses support the hypothesis that geomorphology of the Mediterranean coasts, sea currents, and climate have played significant roles in shaping the current genetic structure of the sea

  12. Trend analysis of the wave storminess: the wave direction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.; Mösso, C.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A.

    2009-09-01

    Climate change has an important role in the current scientific research because of its possible future negative consequences. Concerning the climate change in the coastal engineering field, the apparent sea level rise is one of the key parameters as well as the wave height and the wave direction temporal variations. According to the IPCC (2007), during the last century the sea level has been increasing with a mean rate of 1.7 ± 0.5 mm/yr. However, at local/regional scale the tendency significantly differs from the global trend since the local pressure and wind field variations become more relevant. This appears to be particularly significant in semi-enclosed areas in the Mediterranean Sea (Cushman-Roisin et al., 2001). Even though the existing unsolved questions related to the sea level rise, the uncertainty concerning the wave height is even larger, in which stormy conditions are especially important because they are closely related to processes such as coastal erosion, flooding, etc. Therefore, it is necessary to identify possible existing tendencies of storm related parameters. In many studies, only the maximum wave height and storm duration are analysed, remaining the wave direction in a second term. Note that a possible rotation of the mean wave direction may involve severe consequences since most beach and harbour defence structures have been designed assuming a constant predominant wave incidence. Liste et al. (2004) illustrated this fact with an example in which a rotation of only 2 degrees of the mean energy flux vector could produce a beach retreat of 20 m. Another possible consequence would be a decrease of the harbour operability: increased frequency of storms in the same direction as the harbour entrance orientation would influence the navigability. The present study, which focuses in the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean Sea), aims to improve the present knowledge of the wave storminess variations at regional scale, specially focusing on the wave

  13. Vertical land motion controls regional sea level rise patterns on the United States east coast since 1900

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piecuch, C. G.; Huybers, P. J.; Hay, C.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Little, C. M.; Ponte, R. M.; Tingley, M.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding observed spatial variations in centennial relative sea level trends on the United States east coast has important scientific and societal applications. Past studies based on models and proxies variously suggest roles for crustal displacement, ocean dynamics, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Here we perform joint Bayesian inference on regional relative sea level, vertical land motion, and absolute sea level fields based on tide gauge records and GPS data. Posterior solutions show that regional vertical land motion explains most (80% median estimate) of the spatial variance in the large-scale relative sea level trend field on the east coast over 1900-2016. The posterior estimate for coastal absolute sea level rise is remarkably spatially uniform compared to previous studies, with a spatial average of 1.4-2.3 mm/yr (95% credible interval). Results corroborate glacial isostatic adjustment models and reveal that meaningful long-period, large-scale vertical velocity signals can be extracted from short GPS records.

  14. The Inauguration of Suez Canal and Its Impacts on Navigation in seas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    maryam sheypari

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The inauguration of Suez Canal, which connects the Mediterranean Sea to Red Sea, had a great impact on marine communications. In other words, this canal not only offered the easier access of European countries to their colonies in Asia because of the new marine route between Asia and Europe but also developed the use of steamboats instead of sailboats due to its specific geographical position. In fact, the trade between Asia and Europe spanned via the seas located between Asia and Europe after four centuries as the result of inauguration of Suez Canal in 1869A.D. Furthermore, the importance of Seas i.e. Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea and black Sea had the great economic _ political role in the world and the expansion of rivalry between countries in Persian Gulf due to this canal.  This study investigates to the process of diving Suez and the influence of Suez Canal on marine changes among the countries, especially in Persian Gulf by the beginning of the First World War. The outcome of this study demonstrates that the inauguration of Suez Canal led to the rivalry situation for England in the period of its supremacy.

  15. CRITERIA OF THE ECOSYSTEM STABILITY IN THE NORTHERN REGION OF THE CASPIAN SEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Mitina

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the work is to determine the criteria of the marine shallow-water ecosystem stability using the Northern region of the Caspian Sea as a case study. For each 260 reference points, we received data on 76 parameters, including physical-geographical, hydrochemical, and hydrobiological characteristics that have been analyzed by the method of principle components. The analyzes of these data allowed us to reveal and evaluate principal geoecological factors that influence the distribution of Acipenseridae in the Caspian Sea as a top level of the ecosystem’s trophic chain. The main geoecological factors and the factor of anthropogenic load of the Caspian Sea ecosystems’ stability have been determined.

  16. How Changing Human Lifestyles are Shaping Europe's Regional Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mee, L. D.; Lowe, C. D.; Langmead, O.; McQuatters-Gollop, A.; Attrill, M.; Cooper, P.; Gilbert, A.; Knudsen, S.; Garnacho, E.

    2007-05-01

    European society is experiencing unprecedented changes triggered by expansion of the European Union, the fall of Communism, economic growth and the onset of globalisation. Europe's regional seas, the Baltic, Black Sea, Mediterranean and North-East Atlantic (including the North Sea), provide key goods and services to the human population but have suffered from severe degradation in past decades. Their integrity as coupled social and ecological systems depends on how humanity will anticipate potential problems and deal with its ecological footprint in the future. We report the outcome of an EU-funded 15-country, 28 institution project entitled European Lifestyles and Marine Ecosystems (ELME). Our studies were designed to inform new EU policy and legislation that incorporates Ecosystem-Based Management. ELME has modelled the key relationships between economic and social drivers (D), environmental pressures (P) and changes in the state of the environment (S) in Europe's regional seas. We examined four key issues in each sea: habitat change, eutrophication, chemical pollution and fisheries. We developed conceptual models for each regional sea and employed a novel stochastic modelling technique to examine the interrelationship between key components of the conceptual models. We used the models to examine 2-3 decade projections of current trends in D, P and S and how a number of alternative development scenarios might modify these trends. These simulations demonstrate the vulnerability of Europe's seas to human pressure. As affluence increases in countries acceding to the EU, so does the demand for marine goods and services. There are `winners' and `losers' amongst marine species; the winners are often species that are opportunistic invaders or those with low economic value. In the case of eutrophication, semi-enclosed seas such as the Baltic or Black Sea are already affected by the `legacy of the past'; nutrients that have accumulated in soils, ground waters and

  17. Analysis of sea use landscape pattern based on GIS: a case study in Huludao, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suo, Anning; Wang, Chen; Zhang, Minghui

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to analyse sea use landscape patterns on a regional scale based on methods of landscape ecology integrated with sea use spatial characteristics. Several landscape-level analysis indices, such as the dominance index, complex index, intensivity index, diversity index and sea congruency index, were established using Geographic Information System (GIS) and applied in Huludao, China. The results indicated that sea use landscape analysis indices, which were created based on the characteristics of sea use spatial patterns using GIS, are suitable to quantitatively describe the landscape patterns of sea use. They are operable tools for the landscape analysis of sea use. The sea use landscape in Huludao was dominated by fishing use with a landscape dominance index of 0.724. The sea use landscape is a complex mosaic with high diversity and plenty of fishing areas, as shown by the landscape complex index of 27.21 and the landscape diversity index of 1.25. Most sea use patches correspond to the marine functional zonation plan and the sea use congruency index is 0.89 in the fishing zone and 0.92 in the transportation zone.

  18. Long-term patterns in fish phenology in the western Dutch Wadden Sea in relation to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Walraven, Lodewijk; Dapper, Rob; Nauw, Janine J.; Tulp, Ingrid; Witte, Johannes IJ.; van der Veer, Henk W.

    2017-09-01

    Long-term patterns in fish phenology in the western Dutch Wadden Sea were studied using a 53 year (1960-2013) high resolution time series of daily kom-fyke catches in spring and autumn. Trends in first appearance, last occurrence and peak abundance were analysed for the most common species in relation to mode of life (pelagic, demersal, benthopelagic) and biogeographic guild (northern or southern distribution). Climate change in the western Wadden Sea involved an increase in water temperature from 1980 onwards. The main pattern in first day of occurrence, peak occurrence and last day of occurrence was similar: a positive trend over time and a correlation with spring and summer water temperature. This is counterintuitive; with increasing temperature, an advanced immigration of fish species would be expected. An explanation might be that water temperatures have increased offshore as well and hence fish remain longer there, delaying their immigration to the Wadden Sea. The main trend towards later date of peak occurrence and last day of occurrence was in line with our expectations: a forward shift in immigration into the Wadden Sea implies also that peak abundance is delayed. As a consequence of the increased water temperature, autumn water temperature remains favourable longer than before. For most of the species present, the Wadden Sea is not near the edge of their distributional range. The most striking phenological shifts occurred in those individual species for which the Wadden Sea is near the southern or northern edge of their distribution.

  19. Contrasting trends in North Atlantic deep-water formation in the Labrador Sea and Nordic Seas during the Holocene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renssen, H.; Goosse, H.; Fichefet, T.

    2005-01-01

    The Holocene North Atlantic deep-water formation is studied in a 9,000-year long simulation with a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity, forced by changes in orbital forcing and atmospheric trace gas concentrations. During the experiment, deep-water formation in the Nordic Seas is

  20. Seabirds, gyres and global trends in plastic pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franeker, Jan A. van; Law, Kara Lavender

    2015-01-01

    Fulmars are effective biological indicators of the abundance of floating plastic marine debris. Long-term data reveal high plastic abundance in the southern North Sea, gradually decreasing to the north at increasing distance from population centres, with lowest levels in high-arctic waters. Since the 1980s, pre-production plastic pellets in North Sea fulmars have decreased by ∼75%, while user plastics varied without a strong overall change. Similar trends were found in net-collected floating plastic debris in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre, with a ∼75% decrease in plastic pellets and no obvious trend in user plastic. The decreases in pellets suggest that changes in litter input are rapidly visible in the environment not only close to presumed sources, but also far from land. Floating plastic debris is rapidly “lost” from the ocean surface to other as-yet undetermined sinks in the marine environment. - Highlights: • Seabirds are effective biological monitors of floating plastic marine debris. • Plastics in fulmar stomachs and in the North Atlantic gyre show similar trends. • Pre-production plastic pellets show strong decreases in fulmars and in the gyre. • These data show that floating plastics rapidly disappear from the ocean surface. - Long term studies give evidence that reduced input of plastic debris into the ocean becomes rapidly visible. Floating plastics disappear to as-yet undetermined sinks

  1. Uncertainties in Future Regional Sea Level Trends: How to Deal with the Internal Climate Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

    2017-12-01

    Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.

  2. Geographic Variation in Advertisement Calls in a Tree Frog Species: Gene Flow and Selection Hypotheses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Yikweon; Hahm, Eun Hye; Lee, Hyun-Jung; Park, Soyeon; Won, Yong-Jin; Choe, Jae C.

    2011-01-01

    Background In a species with a large distribution relative to its dispersal capacity, geographic variation in traits may be explained by gene flow, selection, or the combined effects of both. Studies of genetic diversity using neutral molecular markers show that patterns of isolation by distance (IBD) or barrier effect may be evident for geographic variation at the molecular level in amphibian species. However, selective factors such as habitat, predator, or interspecific interactions may be critical for geographic variation in sexual traits. We studied geographic variation in advertisement calls in the tree frog Hyla japonica to understand patterns of variation in these traits across Korea and provide clues about the underlying forces for variation. Methodology We recorded calls of H. japonica in three breeding seasons from 17 localities including localities in remote Jeju Island. Call characters analyzed were note repetition rate (NRR), note duration (ND), and dominant frequency (DF), along with snout-to-vent length. Results The findings of a barrier effect on DF and a longitudinal variation in NRR seemed to suggest that an open sea between the mainland and Jeju Island and mountain ranges dominated by the north-south Taebaek Mountains were related to geographic variation in call characters. Furthermore, there was a pattern of IBD in mitochondrial DNA sequences. However, no comparable pattern of IBD was found between geographic distance and call characters. We also failed to detect any effects of habitat or interspecific interaction on call characters. Conclusions Geographic variations in call characters as well as mitochondrial DNA sequences were largely stratified by geographic factors such as distance and barriers in Korean populations of H. japoinca. Although we did not detect effects of habitat or interspecific interaction, some other selective factors such as sexual selection might still be operating on call characters in conjunction with restricted gene

  3. Introductory comments on the USGS geographic applications program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerlach, A. C.

    1970-01-01

    The third phase of remote sensing technologies and potentials applied to the operations of the U.S. Geological Survey is introduced. Remote sensing data with multidisciplinary spatial data from traditional sources is combined with geographic theory and techniques of environmental modeling. These combined imputs are subject to four sequential activities that involve: (1) thermatic mapping of land use and environmental factors; (2) the dynamics of change detection; (3) environmental surveillance to identify sudden changes and general trends; and (4) preparation of statistical model and analytical reports. Geography program functions, products, clients, and goals are presented in graphical form, along with aircraft photo missions, geography test sites, and FY-70.

  4. Gastric cancer mortality trends in Spain, 1976-2005, differences by autonomous region and sex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    García-Esquinas, Esther; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Pollán, Marina; Boldo, Elena; Fernández-Navarro, Pablo; Lope, Virginia; Vidal, Enrique; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Aragonés, Nuria

    2009-01-01

    Gastric cancer is the second leading cause of oncologic death worldwide. One of the most noteworthy characteristics of this tumor's epidemiology is the marked decline reported in its incidence and mortality in almost every part of the globe in recent decades. This study sought to describe gastric cancer mortality time trends in Spain's regions for both sexes. Mortality data for the period 1976 through 2005 were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Cases were identified using the International Classification of Diseases 9 th and 10 th revision (codes 151 and C16, respectively). Crude and standardized mortality rates were calculated by geographic area, sex, and five-year period. Joinpoint regression analyses were performed to ascertain whether changes in gastric cancer mortality trends had occurred, and to estimate the annual percent change by sex and geographic area. Gastric cancer mortality decreased across the study period, with the downward trend being most pronounced in women and in certain regions situated in the interior and north of mainland Spain. Across the study period, there was an overall decrease of 2.90% per annum among men and 3.65% per annum among women. Generally, regions in which the rate of decline was sharpest were those that had initially registered the highest rates. However, the rate of decline was not constant throughout the study period: joinpoint analysis detected a shift in trend for both sexes in the early 1980s. Gastric cancer mortality displayed in both sexes a downward trend during the study period, both nationally and regionally. The different trend in rates in the respective geographic areas translated as greater regional homogeneity in gastric cancer mortality by the end of the study period. In contrast, rates in women fell more than did those in men. The increasing differences between the sexes could indicate that some risk factors may be modifying the sex-specific pattern of this tumor

  5. Biogeographic classification of the Caspian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fendereski, F.; Vogt, M.; Payne, M. R.; Lachkar, Z.; Gruber, N.; Salmanmahiny, A.; Hosseini, S. A.

    2014-11-01

    Like other inland seas, the Caspian Sea (CS) has been influenced by climate change and anthropogenic disturbance during recent decades, yet the scientific understanding of this water body remains poor. In this study, an eco-geographical classification of the CS based on physical information derived from space and in situ data is developed and tested against a set of biological observations. We used a two-step classification procedure, consisting of (i) a data reduction with self-organizing maps (SOMs) and (ii) a synthesis of the most relevant features into a reduced number of marine ecoregions using the hierarchical agglomerative clustering (HAC) method. From an initial set of 12 potential physical variables, 6 independent variables were selected for the classification algorithm, i.e., sea surface temperature (SST), bathymetry, sea ice, seasonal variation of sea surface salinity (DSSS), total suspended matter (TSM) and its seasonal variation (DTSM). The classification results reveal a robust separation between the northern and the middle/southern basins as well as a separation of the shallow nearshore waters from those offshore. The observed patterns in ecoregions can be attributed to differences in climate and geochemical factors such as distance from river, water depth and currents. A comparison of the annual and monthly mean Chl a concentrations between the different ecoregions shows significant differences (one-way ANOVA, P qualitative evaluation of differences in community composition based on recorded presence-absence patterns of 25 different species of plankton, fish and benthic invertebrate also confirms the relevance of the ecoregions as proxies for habitats with common biological characteristics.

  6. Association of Socioeconomic and Geographic Factors With Google Trends for Tanning and Sunscreen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seth, Divya; Gittleman, Haley; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill; Bordeaux, Jeremy S

    2018-02-01

    Internet search trends are used to track both infectious diseases and noncommunicable conditions. The authors sought to characterize Google Trends search volume index (SVI) for the terms "sunscreen" and tanning ("tanning salon" and "tanning bed") in the United States from 2010 to 2015 and analyze association with educational attainment, average income, and percent white data by state. SVI is search frequency data relative to total search volume. Analysis of variance, univariate, and multivariate analyses were performed to assess seasonal variations in SVI and the association of state-level SVI with state latitudes and census data. Hawaii had the highest SVI for sunscreen searches, whereas Alaska had the lowest. West Virginia had the highest SVI for tanning searches, whereas Hawaii had the lowest. There were significant differences between seasonal SVI for sunscreen and tanning searches (p Tanning SVI was correlated with a decrease in educational attainment and average income, and an increase in latitude (p tanning are influenced by socioeconomic factors, and could be a tool for skin-related public health.

  7. Impact of sea-level rise on earthquake and landslide triggering offshore the Alentejo margin (SW Iberia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neves, M. C.; Roque, C.; Luttrell, K. M.; Vázquez, J. T.; Alonso, B.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquakes and submarine landslides are recurrent and widespread manifestations of fault activity offshore SW Iberia. The present work tests the effects of sea-level rise on offshore fault systems using Coulomb stress change calculations across the Alentejo margin. Large-scale faults capable of generating large earthquakes and tsunamis in the region, especially NE-SW trending thrusts and WNW-ESE trending dextral strike-slip faults imaged at basement depths, are either blocked or unaffected by flexural effects related to sea-level changes. Large-magnitude earthquakes occurring along these structures may, therefore, be less frequent during periods of sea-level rise. In contrast, sea-level rise promotes shallow fault ruptures within the sedimentary sequence along the continental slope and upper rise within distances of failures may either increase (if triggered by shallow fault ruptures) or decrease (if triggered by deep fault ruptures) as a result of sea-level rise. Moreover, observations of slope failures affecting the area of the Sines contourite drift highlight the role of sediment properties as preconditioning factors in this region.

  8. Trends and highlights of VCI 2004

    CERN Document Server

    Fabjan, Christian Wolfgang

    2004-01-01

    This report attempts to summarize the presentations given at this conference. Topics related to R&D of gaseous and solid state detectors clearly point to several trends in particle physics instrumentation. More established techniques are represented by reports on recent experiments and facilities which can be considered the highlights in this research field. The extension of these techniques to space, arctic ice and deep sea are opening new frontiers of particle physics.

  9. United States forest disturbance trends observed with landsat time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey G. Masek; Samuel N. Goward; Robert E. Kennedy; Warren B. Cohen; Gretchen G. Moisen; Karen Schleweiss; Chengquan. Huang

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing US land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest...

  10. Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and their methoxylated derivatives in pike from Swedish waters with emphasis on temporal trends, 1967-2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kierkegaard, A.; Bignert, A.; Sellstroem, U.; Olsson, M.; Asplund, L.; Jansson, B.; Wit, C.A. de

    2004-07-01

    Temporal trends of five tetra- to hexabromodiphenyl ethers [BDE47, BDE99, BDE100, BDE153 and BDE154) and two methoxy-tetraBDEs [6-methoxy-2,2',4,4'- tetraBDE (6-MeO-BDE47) and 2'-methoxy-2,3',4,5'- tetraBDE (2'-MeO-BDE68)] in pike from Lake Bolmen for the years 1967-2000, are presented. All BDE congeners show increasing trends up to the mid-1980s ({sigma}5PBDE from 60 to 1600 pg/g wet weight in 1989, i.e. a more than 25-fold increase), and then decrease or level off. The decreasing trends of PBDEs after the 1980s were considerably slower in the present study than was found in a study of an environmental matrix from the Baltic Proper covering the same time period. This difference suggests local sources near Lake Bolmen. The MeO-BDEs show initially decreasing concentrations, which for 6-MeO-BDE47 continues until the early 1990s. The concentrations of 6-MeO-BDE47 in herring from five locations along the Swedish coast increased from south to north in the Baltic Sea. No correlation between the concentrations of the BDE congeners and the MeO-BDEs was observed, indicating sources other than PBDEs for these compounds. The presence of MeO-BDEs in fish from lakes with different characteristics suggests a natural production not favoured by eutrophication, or dependent on sampling season and geographical location. - PBDEs and MeO-BDEs show different temporal trends in pike from a Swedish lake suggesting different sources.

  11. Geographically widespread swordfish barcode stock identification: a case study of its application.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Maria Pappalardo

    Full Text Available The swordfish (Xiphias gladius is a cosmopolitan large pelagic fish inhabiting tempered and tropical waters and it is a target species for fisheries all around the world. The present study investigated the ability of COI barcoding to reliably identify swordfish and particularly specific stocks of this commercially important species.We applied the classical DNA barcoding technology, upon a 682 bp segment of COI, and compared swordfish sequences from different geographical sources (Atlantic, Indian Oceans and Mediterranean Sea. The sequences of the 5' hyper-variable fragment of the control region (5'dloop, were also used to validate the efficacy of COI as a stock-specific marker.This information was successfully applied to the discrimination of unknown samples from the market, detecting in some cases mislabeled seafood products.The NJ distance-based phenogram (K2P model obtained with COI sequences allowed us to correlate the swordfish haplotypes to the different geographical stocks. Similar results were obtained with 5'dloop. Our preliminary data in swordfish Xiphias gladius confirm that Cytochrome Oxidase I can be proposed as an efficient species-specific marker that has also the potential to assign geographical provenance. This information might speed the samples analysis in commercial application of barcoding.

  12. Impacts of Scale on Geographic Analysis of Health Data: An Example of Obesity Prevalence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jay Lee

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The prevalence of obesity has increased dramatically in recent decades. It is an important public health issue as it causes many other chronic health conditions, such as hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, and type II diabetics. Obesity affects life expectancy and even the quality of lives. Eventually, it increases social costs in many ways due to increasing costs of health care and workplace absenteeism. Using the spatial patterns of obesity prevalence as an example; we show how different geographic units can reveal different degrees of detail in results of analysis. We used both census tracts and census block groups as units of geographic analysis. In addition; to reveal how different geographic scales may impact on the analytic results; we applied geographically weighted regression to model the relationships between obesity rates (dependent variable and three independent variables; including education attainment; unemployment rates; and median family income. Though not including an exhaustive list of explanatory variables; this regression model provides an example for revealing the impacts of geographic scales on analysis of health data. With obesity data based on reported heights and weights on driver’s licenses in Summit County, Ohio, we demonstrated that geographically weighted regression reveals varying spatial trends between dependent and independent variables that conventional regression models such as ordinary least squares regression cannot. Most importantly, analyses carried out with different geographic scales do show very different results. With these findings, we suggest that, while possible, smaller geographic units be used to allow better understanding of the studies phenomena.

  13. Trends and variability of cloud fraction cover in the Arctic, 1982-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boccolari, Mauro; Parmiggiani, Flavio

    2018-05-01

    Climatology, trends and variability of cloud fraction cover (CFC) data over the Arctic (north of 70°N), were analysed over the 1982-2009 period. Data, available from the Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility (CM SAF), are derived from satellite measurements by AVHRR. Climatological means confirm permanent high CFC values over the Atlantic sector during all the year and during summer over the eastern Arctic Ocean. Lower values are found in the rest of the analysed area especially over Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, nearly continuously during all the months. These results are confirmed by CFC trends and variability. Statistically significant trends were found during all the months over the Greenland Sea, particularly during the winter season (negative, less than -5 % dec -1) and over the Beaufort Sea in spring (positive, more than +5 % dec -1). CFC variability, investigated by the Empirical Orthogonal Functions, shows a substantial "non-variability" in the Northern Atlantic Ocean. Statistically significant correlations between CFC principal components elements and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index and Pacific North America patterns are found.

  14. Radiocaesium in the seas of northern Europe: 1980-84

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camplin, W.C.; Steele, A.K.

    1991-01-01

    A computer data base of measurements of caesium-134 and caesium-137 in sea water has been compiled. The measurements were carried out by the UK Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food and include data for the Irish Sea, Bristol Channel, English Channel, North Sea, Scottish waters and other parts of the marine environment of northern Europe. This report covers the sampling period 1980-84 and further information will be published as the data base is expanded. It is hoped that the information will be useful to scientists modelling radionuclide dispersion in the area. In order to assist in the development of new models, diskettes of the data in ASCII files are available, on request, from the first author. The data include the locations of sample collection, collection date, depth salinity, concentration of activity and counting errors. Plots of the geographical scope of the data are also provided to assist the user. (author)

  15. The past, present and future distribution of a deep-sea shrimp in the Southern Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeenatul Basher

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Shrimps have a widespread distribution across the shelf, slope and seamount regions of the Southern Ocean. Studies of Antarctic organisms have shown that individual species and higher taxa display different degrees of sensitivity and adaptability in response to environmental change. We use species distribution models to predict changes in the geographic range of the deep-sea Antarctic shrimp Nematocarcinus lanceopes under changing climatic conditions from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present and to the year 2100. The present distribution range indicates a pole-ward shift of the shrimp population since the last glaciation. This occurred by colonization of slopes from nearby refugia located around the northern part of Scotia Arc, southern tip of South America, South Georgia, Bouvet Island, southern tip of the Campbell plateau and Kerguelen plateau. By 2100, the shrimp are likely to expand their distribution in east Antarctica but have a continued pole-ward contraction in west Antarctic