WorldWideScience

Sample records for seas assessment project

  1. The International Arctic Seas Assessment Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linsley, G.S.; Sjoeblom, K.L.

    1994-01-01

    The International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP) was initiated in 1993 to address widespread concern over the possible health and environmental impacts associated with the radioactive waste dumped into the shallow waters of the Arctic Seas. This article discusses the project with these general topics: A brief history of dumping activities; the international control system; perspectives on arctic Seas dumping; the IASAP aims and implementation; the IASAP work plan and progress. 2 figs

  2. The international arctic seas assessment project: Progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeblom, K.L.; Linsley, G.S.

    1995-01-01

    The article provides some background information on wastes dumped into the Arctic Seas and describes the progress made within the framework of International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP) lunched to assess the health and environmental implications of the dumping. 1 tab

  3. International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeblom, K.L.; Linsley, G.S.

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of this paper was to give an overall view of the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP). The IASAP project was initiated in 1993 to address concerns about the possible health and environmental impacts of radioactive wastes dumped in the shallow waters of the Arctic seas by the former Soviet Union. The project is being executed as a part of the IAEA's responsibilities under the Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter (London Convention 1972). The results and conclusions of the project are expected to be reported to the London Convention in late 1996. The objectives of the project are: 1) to assess the risks to human health and to the environment associated with the radioactive waste dumped in the Kara and Barents Seas; and 2) to examine possible remedial actions related to the dumped wastes and to advise on whether they are necessary and justified. The project is organized in five working areas: source terms, existing environmental concentrations, transfer mechanisms and models, impact assessment and remedial measures. Progress made in all working areas of IASAP is reviewed each year by a group of senior scientists (IASAP Advisory Group Meeting). During the first two years of the IASAP project, a considerable amount of new information has been produced and published as IASAP working documents. Experts from 15 countries and several international organizations are involved in the different Working Groups and Advisory Group Meetings of the project. It is planned that in addition to the report to the London Convention, which will be prepared by the Advisory Group, detailed technical reports covering the work of all areas of the IASAP will be produced. 12 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  4. Dumping of radioactive waste in the Artic Seas - The International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linsley, G.S.; Sjoeblom, K.L.

    1994-01-01

    The IAEA has initiated the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP) to address the widespread concern over the possible health and environmental impacts of the dumped radioactive wastes in the shallow waters the Arctic seas. The work is being carried out as part of IAEA responsibilities to the London Convention 1972. It is envisaged that the project will last for four years and be run by the IAEA in co-operation with the Norwegian and Russian Governments and with the involvement, through the IAEA, of experts from relevant IAEA member states. The project is aimed at producing an assessment of the potential radiological implications of the dumping and at addressing the question of possible remedial measures. At the same time, it is intended to provide a focus for the reporting of national research and assessment work and a mechanism for encouraging international co-operation and collaboration

  5. A model technical cooperation project on the marine radioactivity assessment in the Black Sea Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goektepe, B. G.; Koeksal, G.; Osvath, I.; Koese, A.; Kuecuekcezzar, R.; Varinlioglu, A.; Guengoer, E.

    2002-01-01

    Marine Environmental Assessment of the Black Sea Region is a wide scope Regional Technical Co-operation Project coded as RER/2/003 implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in the period 1995-2001.This multidisciplinay project was designed in response to the needs of participating Member States - the six Black Sea coastal countries (Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russian Federation, Georgia and Turkey)- to establish capabilities for reliably assessing radionuclides in the Black Sea environment and applying tracer techniques to marine pollution studies. The IAEA assisted laboratories in the region by providing expert services, training, equipment and materials (Goektepe et al., 1998; Osvath et al., 1997-2000)

  6. Assessing economic impact of storm surge under projected sea level rise scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Angel, D. C.; Yoskowitz, D.

    2017-12-01

    Global sea level is expected to rise 0.2-2m by the year 2100. Rising sea level is expected to have a number of impacts such as erosion, saltwater intrusion, and decline in coastal wetlands; all which have direct and indirect socio-economic impact to coastal communities. By 2050, 25% of the world's population will reside within flood-prone areas. These statistics raise a concern for the economic cost that sea level and flooding has on the growing coastal communities. Economic cost of storm surge inundation and rising seas may include loss or damage to public facilities and infrastructure that may become temporarily inaccessible, as well as disruptions to business and services. This goal of this project is to assess economic impacts of storms under four SLR scenarios including low, intermediate-low, intermediate-high, and high (0.2m, 0.5m, 1.2m and 2m, respectively) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico region. To assess flooding impact on communities from storm surge, this project utilizes HAZUS-MH software - a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based modeling tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency - to estimate physical, economic, and social impacts of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes. The HAZUS database comes integrated with aggregate and site specific inventory which includes: demographic data, general building stock, agricultural statistics, vehicle inventory, essential facilities, transportation systems, utility systems (among other sensitive facilities). User-defined inundation scenarios will serve to identify assets at risk and damage estimates will be generated using the Depth Damage Function included in the HAZUS software. Results will focus on 3 communities in the Gulf and highlight changes in storm flood impact. This approach not only provides a method for economic impact assessment but also begins to create a link between ecosystem services and natural and nature-based features such as wetlands, beaches and dunes

  7. Projecting future sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

    2006-01-01

    California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future

  8. Upper Limit for Regional Sea Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2016-04-01

    With more than 150 million people living within 1 m of high tide future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (AR5 IPCC) noted that a 0.5 m rise in mean sea level will result in a dramatic increase the frequency of high water extremes - by an order of magnitude, or more in some regions. Thus the flood threat to the rapidly growing urban populations and associated infrastructure in coastal areas are major concerns for society. Hence, impact assessment, risk management, adaptation strategy and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on projections of mean sea level and crucially its low probability, high impact, upper range. With probabilistic approach we produce regional sea level projections taking into account large uncertainties associated with Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets contribution. We calculate the upper limit (as 95%) for regional sea level projections by 2100 with RCP8.5 scenario, suggesting that for the most coastlines upper limit will exceed the global upper limit of 1.8 m.

  9. Coastal seas as resource for Blue Growth - SmartSea project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotilainen, Aarno; Alvi, Kimmo; Boman, Anton; Hämäläinen, Jyrki; Kaskela, Anu; Rantataro, Jyrki; Vallius, Henry; Virtasalo, Joonas

    2017-04-01

    Blue growth is a long term strategy of the European Union (EU) to enhance the sustainable growth of the maritime sector. Our surrounding seas have been drivers for the European economy for a long time, but still they have great potential for further exploiting of natural resources and economic growth. Especially if the growth can be achieved in an environmentally sustainable way, benefits are obvious. It has been estimated that improvement of the state of the Baltic Sea would until 2030 create 900 000 jobs in the whole Baltic Sea area, mainly in Blue Tech, tourism, real estate and building businesses (Dahlgren et al. 2015). However, coastal seas already experience multiple stressors like off-shore construction, pollution, eutrophication, shipping, over-fishing, and climate change. In order to obtain sustainable Blue Growth, it is necessary to localize and assess the current maritime activities, estimate their growth potential, and investigate their present and future effects on each other and on the marine environment. The purpose of the SmartSea project is to support the growth of commercial marine activities in the Gulf of Bothnia region, in the northern Baltic Sea. The Gulf of Bothnia is an essential resource in terms of fish farming and wind power, for example, and it is also possible to make use of the geological resources of the gulf. Moreover, the rapid growth of the commercial marine activities and the consequences of the climate change may lead to conflicts between the different activities and harm the marine ecosystem of the Gulf of Bothnia. The SmartSea project aims to identify these risks and find solutions for the sustainable use of the sea. SmartSea project is funded by the Strategic Research Council of Academy of Finland, grant No: 292 985. The project will last for six years (2015-2020) and its funding totals nearly 8 million euros. The project involves close to 40 researchers from eight different institutions: the Finnish Meteorological Institute

  10. Canadian snow and sea ice: historical trends and projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Derksen, Chris; Howell, Stephen; Laliberté, Fred; Thackeray, Chad; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Vionnet, Vincent; Kushner, Paul J.; Brown, Ross

    2018-04-01

    The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state of the art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. Here, we present an assessment from the CanSISE Network on trends in the historical record of snow cover (fraction, water equivalent) and sea ice (area, concentration, type, and thickness) across Canada. We also assess projected changes in snow cover and sea ice likely to occur by mid-century, as simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) suite of Earth system models. The historical datasets show that the fraction of Canadian land and marine areas covered by snow and ice is decreasing over time, with seasonal and regional variability in the trends consistent with regional differences in surface temperature trends. In particular, summer sea ice cover has decreased significantly across nearly all Canadian marine regions, and the rate of multi-year ice loss in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago has nearly doubled over the last 8 years. The multi-model consensus over the 2020-2050 period shows reductions in fall and spring snow cover fraction and sea ice concentration of 5-10 % per decade (or 15-30 % in total), with similar reductions in winter sea ice concentration in both Hudson Bay and eastern Canadian waters. Peak pre-melt terrestrial snow water equivalent reductions of up to 10 % per decade (30 % in total) are projected across southern Canada.

  11. Formation of Criteria of Assessment of Infrastructure Projects of Sea Ports Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Logutova Tamara G.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The spectrum of criteria, by which assessment of tender offers of projects of state-private partnership in the port industry is carried out, includes a small but capacious set of indicators of financial and economic efficiency and qualification level of contenders. However, the study of foreign methods of assessment of projects in sea ports and domestic experience of carrying out tenders in other industries shows that a more clear division of assessment of both tender offers and contenders is rational. The article uses some methods and approaches to scientific study – generalisation, systematisation and analysis of foreign and domestic experience of carrying out tenders and acts of law. In the result the article forms a scheme of assessment of tender offers and investors and also offers an algorithm of calculation of the integral tender assessment, based on division of tender criteria by four groups: technical and economic, financial (for a tender offer, financial and investment, and organisational (for investors. The offered aspects of improvement of methods of tender selection of projects, realised in the port industry with the help of the mechanism of state-private partnership, would facilitate a more balanced and optimal selection of the best offer not only from the point of view of its content, but also the characteristic of the investor that proposes it. On the other hand, the use of the common, successfully tested under different conditions of project realisation, numerical method of assessment would be the guarantee of applicability of the of the proposed measures.

  12. Radiological impact assessment within the IAEA Arctic Assessment Project (IASAP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scott, E.M.; Gurbutt, P.; Harmes, I.

    1998-01-01

    As part of the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP) of IAEA, a working group was created to model the dispersal and transfer of radionuclides released from radioactive waste disposed of in the Kara Sea and bays of Novaya Zemlya and to assess the radiological impact. Existing models...

  13. A success story of regional projects implemented for the management of marine environment. Turkish experience related to the black sea and the mediterranean sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goktepe, B.G.; Gungor, N.; Gungor, E.; Karakelle, B.

    2004-01-01

    Full text: A wide scope Regional Technical Co-operation Project RER/2/003 'Marine Environmental Assessment of the Black Sea Region' is implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in the period 1995-2001. This project was initiated in response to the needs of participating Member States - the six Black Sea coastal countries (Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russian Federation, Georgia and Turkey) to establish capabilities for reliably assessing radionuclides in the Black Sea environment and applying tracer techniques to marine pollution studies The project has various important aspects: Scientifically; one of the major environmental issue radioactivity pollution is addressed. Technically; laboratory capability for transuranic analysis is being developed. Economically; the reversing the ecological deterioration and developing sustainable uses of the Black Sea and its natural resources is one of the major interests. Politically; responsibility of pollution control and rehabilitation plans of six Black Sea countries are addressed through various convention and declarations. Socio-economically, fisheries and tourism sectors are expected to benefit. Highlights from the joint radioactivity-monitoring program of the project among six Black Sea countries are outlined. Examples from the Turkish monitoring work consist of the routine sampling of seawater, algae, mussels, fish samples and beach sand from the selected stations along the Black Sea coast are presented for illustration. The success of the Black Sea regional project has given rise to a new regional project 'Marine Environmental Assessment of the Mediterranean Region' based on the request of the member countries, which will be initiated in 2005 by the IAEA. The initial phase the project, its objectives and the schedule will be summarized. Key words: marine radioactivity, environmental management, Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, regional cooperation

  14. Radioactivity monitoring of the Turkish Black Sea coast as a part of the IAEA model project 'Marine environmental assessment of the Black Sea region' and nuclear techniques for the environmental management of water resources in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goktepe, B.G.; Koksal, G.; Gungor, N.; Gungor, E.; Kose, A.; Kucukcezzar, R.; Varinlioglu, A.; Erkol, A.Y.; Karakelle, B.; Osvath, I.; Fowler, S.

    2002-01-01

    A wide scope Regional Technical Co-operation Project RER/2/003 'Marine environmental assessment of the Black Sea region' is implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in the period 1995-2001. This project is initiated in response to the needs of participating Member-States - the six Black Sea coastal countries (Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russian Federation, Georgia and Turkey) to establish capabilities for reliably assessing radionuclides in the Black Sea environment and applying tracer technique to marine pollution studies. The project has various important aspects: Scientifically; one of the major environmental issue radioactivity pollution is addressed. Technically; laboratory capability for transuranic analysis is being developed. Economically; the reversing the ecological deterioration and developing sustainable uses of the Black Sea and its natural resources is one of the major interest. Politically; responsibility of pollution control and rehabilitation plans of six Black Sea countries are addressed thought various conventions and declarations. Socio-economically; fisheries and tourism sectors are expected to benefit. Highlights from the joint radioactivity monitoring program of the project among six Black Sea countries are outlined. Examples from Turkish monitoring work consists of the routine sampling of sea water, algae, mussels, fish samples and beach sand from the selected stations along the Black Sea coast are presented for illustration. Insights gained from the application of nuclear techniques for the 'Pollution Investigation of the Kucukcekmece Lake' and the 'Marine environmental assessment of the Black Sea region' Model Technical Co-operation Project carried out at the Cekmece Nuclear Research Center supporting by the IAEA are presented. Concluding remarks include the vital importance of protection of the water resources within Eurasian countries and the need for strong cooperation among nuclear research centers

  15. Conceptual and methodological challenges to integrating SEA and cumulative effects assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunn, Jill; Noble, Bram F.

    2011-01-01

    The constraints to assessing and managing cumulative environmental effects in the context of project-based environmental assessment are well documented, and the potential benefits of a more strategic approach to cumulative effects assessment (CEA) are well argued; however, such benefits have yet to be clearly demonstrated in practice. While it is widely assumed that cumulative effects are best addressed in a strategic context, there has been little investigation as to whether CEA and strategic environmental assessment (SEA) are a 'good fit' - conceptually or methodologically. This paper identifies a number of conceptual and methodological challenges to the integration of CEA and SEA. Based on results of interviews with international experts and practitioners, this paper demonstrates that: definitions and conceptualizations of CEA are typically weak in practice; approaches to effects aggregation vary widely; a systems perspective lacks in both SEA and CEA; the multifarious nature of SEA complicates CEA; tiering arrangements between SEA and project-based assessment are limited to non-existing; and the relationship of SEA to regional planning remains unclear.

  16. Raising the Dead without a Red Sea-Dead Sea project? Hydro-economics and governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Rosenberg

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Seven decades of extractions have dramatically reduced Jordan River flows, lowered the Dead Sea level, opened sink holes, and caused other environmental problems. The fix Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinians propose would build an expensive multipurpose conveyance project from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea that would also generate hydropower and desalinate water. This paper compares the Red-Dead project to alternatives that may also raise the Dead Sea level. Hydro-economic model results for the Jordan-Israel-Palestinian inter-tied water systems show two restoration alternatives are more economically viable than the proposed Red-Dead project. Many decentralized new supply, wastewater reuse, conveyance, conservation, and leak reduction projects and programs in each country can together increase economic benefits and reliably deliver up to 900 MCM yr−1 to the Dead Sea. Similarly, a smaller Red-Dead project that only generates hydropower can deliver large flows to the Dead Sea when the sale price of generated electricity is sufficiently high. However, for all restoration options, net benefits fall and water scarcity rises as flows to the Dead Sea increase. This finding suggests (i each country has no individual incentive to return water to the Dead Sea, and (ii outside institutions that seek to raise the Dead must also offer countries direct incentives to deliver water to the Sea besides building the countries new infrastructure.

  17. Impacts of projected sea ice changes on trans-Arctic navigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, S. R.; Smith, L. C.

    2012-12-01

    Reduced Arctic sea ice continues to be a palpable signal of global change. Record lows in September sea ice extent from 2007 - 2011 have fueled speculation that trans-Arctic navigation routes may become physically viable in the 21st century. General Circulation Models project a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer by mid-century; however, how reduced sea ice will realistically impact navigation is not well understood. Using the ATAM (Arctic Transportation Accessibility Model) we present simulations of 21st-century trans-Arctic voyages as a function of climatic (ice) conditions and vessel class. Simulations are based on sea ice projections for three climatic forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m^2) representing present-day and mid-century conditions, assuming Polar Class 6 (PC6) and open-water vessels (OW) with medium and no ice-breaking capability, respectively. Optimal least-cost routes (minimizing travel time while avoiding ice impassible to a given vessel class) between the North Atlantic and the Bering Strait were calculated for summer months of each time window. While Arctic navigation depends on other factors besides sea ice including economics, infrastructure, bathymetry, current, and weather, these projections should be useful for strategic planning by governments, regulatory and environmental agencies, and the global maritime industry to assess potential changes in the spatial and temporal ranges of Arctic marine operations.

  18. Arctic sea ice decline: Projected changes in timing and extent of sea ice in the Bering and Chukchi Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, David C.

    2010-01-01

    The Arctic region is warming faster than most regions of the world due in part to increasing greenhouse gases and positive feedbacks associated with the loss of snow and ice cover. One consequence has been a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice over the past 3 decades?a decline that is projected to continue by state-of-the-art models. Many stakeholders are therefore interested in how global warming may change the timing and extent of sea ice Arctic-wide, and for specific regions. To inform the public and decision makers of anticipated environmental changes, scientists are striving to better understand how sea ice influences ecosystem structure, local weather, and global climate. Here, projected changes in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are examined because sea ice influences the presence of, or accessibility to, a variety of local resources of commercial and cultural value. In this study, 21st century sea ice conditions in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are based on projections by 18 general circulation models (GCMs) prepared for the fourth reporting period by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. Sea ice projections are analyzed for each of two IPCC greenhouse gas forcing scenarios: the A1B `business as usual? scenario and the A2 scenario that is somewhat more aggressive in its CO2 emissions during the second half of the century. A large spread of uncertainty among projections by all 18 models was constrained by creating model subsets that excluded GCMs that poorly simulated the 1979-2008 satellite record of ice extent and seasonality. At the end of the 21st century (2090-2099), median sea ice projections among all combinations of model ensemble and forcing scenario were qualitatively similar. June is projected to experience the least amount of sea ice loss among all months. For the Chukchi Sea, projections show extensive ice melt during July and ice-free conditions during August, September, and October by the end of the century, with high agreement

  19. Sea Turtle Conservation on Bonaire. Sea Turtle Club Bonaire 1997. Project Report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuit, M.; Put, van A.L.L.M.; Valkering, N.P.; Eijck, van T.J.W.

    1998-01-01

    The Sea Turtle Club Bonaire (STCB) is a non-governmental, non-profit organization. Its main goal is the conservation of the sea turtles that occur on Bonaire. To reach this goal, annual projects are undertaken, such as research and the promotion of public awareness on sea turtle conservation. The

  20. Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Carson, M.; Katsman, C.A.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; Köhl, A.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.; Stammer, D.

    2014-01-01

    We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 (st) century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined

  1. Joint Projections of US East Coast Sea Level and Storm Surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, Christopher M.; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Villarini, Gabriele

    2015-01-01

    Future coastal flood risk will be strongly influenced by sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. These two factors are generally considered independently. Here, we assess twenty-first century changes in the coastal hazard for the US East Coast using a flood index (FI) that accounts for changes in flood duration and magnitude driven by SLR and changes in power dissipation index (PDI, an integrated measure of tropical cyclone intensity, frequency and duration). Sea-level rise and PDI are derived from representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations of 15 atmosphere- ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). By 2080-2099, projected changes in the FI relative to 1986-2005 are substantial and positively skewed: a 10th-90th percentile range 4-75 times higher for RCP 2.6 and 35-350 times higher for RCP 8.5. High-end Fl projections are driven by three AOGCMs that project the largest increases in SLR, PDI and upper ocean temperatures. Changes in PDI are particularly influential if their intra-model correlation with SLR is included, increasing the RCP 8.5 90th percentile FI by a further 25%. Sea-level rise from other, possibly correlated, climate processes (for example, ice sheet and glacier mass changes) will further increase coastal flood risk and should be accounted for in comprehensive assessments.

  2. Uncertainty Quantification for Ice Sheet Science and Sea Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boening, C.; Schlegel, N.; Limonadi, D.; Schodlok, M.; Seroussi, H. L.; Larour, E. Y.; Watkins, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    In order to better quantify uncertainties in global mean sea level rise projections and in particular upper bounds, we aim at systematically evaluating the contributions from ice sheets and potential for extreme sea level rise due to sudden ice mass loss. Here, we take advantage of established uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) as well as sensitivities to ice/ocean interactions using melt rates and melt potential derived from MITgcm/ECCO2. With the use of these tools, we conduct Monte-Carlo style sampling experiments on forward simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet, by varying internal parameters and boundary conditions of the system over both extreme and credible worst-case ranges. Uncertainty bounds for climate forcing are informed by CMIP5 ensemble precipitation and ice melt estimates for year 2100, and uncertainty bounds for ocean melt rates are derived from a suite of regional sensitivity experiments using MITgcm. Resulting statistics allow us to assess how regional uncertainty in various parameters affect model estimates of century-scale sea level rise projections. The results inform efforts to a) isolate the processes and inputs that are most responsible for determining ice sheet contribution to sea level; b) redefine uncertainty brackets for century-scale projections; and c) provide a prioritized list of measurements, along with quantitative information on spatial and temporal resolution, required for reducing uncertainty in future sea level rise projections. Results indicate that ice sheet mass loss is dependent on the spatial resolution of key boundary conditions - such as bedrock topography and melt rates at the ice-ocean interface. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

  3. XXI century projections of wind-wave conditions and sea-level rise in the Black sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polonsky, A.; Garmashov, A.; Fomin, V.; Valchev, N.; Trifonova, E.

    2012-04-01

    Projection of regional climate changes for XXI century is one of the priorities of EC environmental programme. Potential worsening of the waves' statistics, sea level rise and extreme surges are the principal negative consequences of the climate change for marine environment. That is why the main purpose of this presentation is to discuss the above issue for the Black sea region (with a strong focus to the south-west subregion because the maximum heights of waves exceeding 10 m occur just here) using output of several global coupled models (GCM) for XXI century, wave simulation, long-term observations of sea level and statistical techniques. First of all we tried to choose the best coupled model (s) simulated the Black sea climate change and variability using the control experiments for 20 century (203). The principal result is as follows. There is not one model which is simulating adequately even one atmospheric parameter for all seasons. Therefore we considered (for the climate projection) different outputs form various models. When it was possible we calculated also the ensemble mean projection for the selected model (s) and emission scenarios. To calculate the wave projection we used the output of SWAN model forced by the GCM wind projection for 2010 to 2100. To estimate the sea level rise in XXI century and future surges statistics we extrapolate the observed sea level rise tendencies, statistical relation between wave heights and sea level and wave scenarios. Results show that in general, the climate change in XXI century doesn't lead to the catastrophic change of the Black sea wind-wave statistics including the extreme waves in the S-W Black sea. The typical atmospheric pattern leading to the intense storm in the S-W Black sea is characterized by the persistent anticyclonic area to the North of the Black sea and cyclonic conditions in the Southern Black sea region. Such pressure pattern causes persistent and strong eastern or north-eastern wind which

  4. Effective media reporting of sea level rise projections: 1989-2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rick, U K; Boykoff, M T; Pielke, R A Jr

    2011-01-01

    In the mass media, sea level rise is commonly associated with the impacts of climate change due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. As this issue garners ongoing international policy attention, segments of the scientific community have expressed unease about how this has been covered by mass media. Therefore, this study examines how sea level rise projections-in IPCC Assessment Reports and a sample of the scientific literature-have been represented in seven prominent United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK) newspapers over the past two decades. The research found that-with few exceptions-journalists have accurately portrayed scientific research on sea level rise projections to 2100. Moreover, while coverage has predictably increased in the past 20 years, journalists have paid particular attention to the issue in years when an IPCC report is released or when major international negotiations take place, rather than when direct research is completed and specific projections are published. We reason that the combination of these factors has contributed to a perceived problem in the sea level rise reporting by the scientific community, although systematic empirical research shows none. In this contemporary high-stakes, high-profile and highly politicized arena of climate science and policy interactions, such results mark a particular bright spot in media representations of climate change. These findings can also contribute to more measured considerations of climate impacts and policy action at a critical juncture of international negotiations and everyday decision-making associated with the causes and consequences of climate change.

  5. Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, Christopher M.; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yip, Stan

    2015-01-01

    The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

  6. Theory versus practice in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lobos, Víctor, E-mail: vlobosg@gmail.com [CEG-IST, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Research Group on Strategic Approaches to Environment and Sustainability (SENSU), 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal); Centro de Estudios del Desarrollo, San Crescente 551, Las Condes, Santiago (Chile); Partidario, Maria [CEG-IST, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Research Group on Strategic Approaches to Environment and Sustainability (SENSU), 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal)

    2014-09-15

    Could the theory of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) be ahead of its time and decoupled from its practice? This paper evolved in search for this leading research question. Over the years the discourse on SEA experienced a gradual shift from the technocratic and rationalist thinking that supported its origin to more strategic approaches and integrated concepts, suggested since the mid 1990's. In this paper we share the results of our analysis of international thinking and practical experience with SEA. Results reveal that SEA practice changes very slowly when compared to advanced thinking supporting the noted shift. Current SEA practice shows to be still predominantly rooted in the logic of projects' environmental impact assessment (EIA). It is strongly bound to legal and regulatory requirements, and the motivation for its application persists being the delivery of environmental (or final) reports to meet legal obligations. Even though advanced SEA theoretical thinking claim its potential to help decisions to look forward, change mind-sets and the rationale of decision-making to meet sustainability challenges and enhance societal values, we note a weak relationship between the theoretical development of SEA and its practice. Why is this happening? Which factors explain this apparent inertia, resistance to change, in the SEA practice? Results appear to demonstrate the influence of assumptions, understandings, concepts, and beliefs in the use of SEA, which in turn suggest the political sensitivity of the instrument. - Highlights: • Theoretical thinking in SEA is ahead of its time. • SEA international practice reveals inertia to move out of project’ EIA comfort zone. • World current SEA practice show similar understandings of 30 years ago. • 100 world reports and survey of practitioners supported world review. • SEA great challenge is to change paradigms into new scientific complexity theories.

  7. Theory versus practice in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobos, Víctor; Partidario, Maria

    2014-01-01

    Could the theory of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) be ahead of its time and decoupled from its practice? This paper evolved in search for this leading research question. Over the years the discourse on SEA experienced a gradual shift from the technocratic and rationalist thinking that supported its origin to more strategic approaches and integrated concepts, suggested since the mid 1990's. In this paper we share the results of our analysis of international thinking and practical experience with SEA. Results reveal that SEA practice changes very slowly when compared to advanced thinking supporting the noted shift. Current SEA practice shows to be still predominantly rooted in the logic of projects' environmental impact assessment (EIA). It is strongly bound to legal and regulatory requirements, and the motivation for its application persists being the delivery of environmental (or final) reports to meet legal obligations. Even though advanced SEA theoretical thinking claim its potential to help decisions to look forward, change mind-sets and the rationale of decision-making to meet sustainability challenges and enhance societal values, we note a weak relationship between the theoretical development of SEA and its practice. Why is this happening? Which factors explain this apparent inertia, resistance to change, in the SEA practice? Results appear to demonstrate the influence of assumptions, understandings, concepts, and beliefs in the use of SEA, which in turn suggest the political sensitivity of the instrument. - Highlights: • Theoretical thinking in SEA is ahead of its time. • SEA international practice reveals inertia to move out of project’ EIA comfort zone. • World current SEA practice show similar understandings of 30 years ago. • 100 world reports and survey of practitioners supported world review. • SEA great challenge is to change paradigms into new scientific complexity theories

  8. Radioactivity in the Arctic Seas. Report for the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-04-01

    This report provides comprehensive information on environmental conditions in the Arctic Seas as required for the study of possible radiological consequences from dumped high level radioactive wastes in the Kara Sea. The report describes the oceanography of the regions, with emphasis on the Kara and Barents Seas, including the East Novaya Zemlya Fjords. The ecological description concentrates on biological production, marine food-weds and fisheries in the Arctic Seas. The report presents data on radionuclide concentrations in the Kara and Barents Seas and uses these data to estimate the inventories of radionuclides currently in the marine environment of the Kara and Barents Seas

  9. Marine environmental assessment in the Black Sea region- a case for the Turkish coastal zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goektepe, G G.; Koeksal, G.; Osvath, I.

    2001-01-01

    'Marine Environmental Assessment of the Black Sea Region' Technical Cooperation Project, implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is presented. Environmental problems of the Black Sea eco-system and the current international efforts with regard to prevention of pollution are discussed. General aspects of the project are presented. A joint monitoring program initiated according to the work plan of the project among six Black Sea countries is outlined with emphasis on the monitoring program for the Turkish coastal zone. Concluding remarks are on the vital importance of sharing the scientific responsibility on the trans-boundary environmental problems

  10. Modelling of the radiological impact of radioactive waste dumping in the Arctic Seas. Report of the Modelling and Assessment Working Group of the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The work is summarized carried out by the Modelling and Assessment Working Group in 1994-1996. The Modelling and Assessment Working Group was established within the framework of the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP) launched by the IAEA in 1993 with the objectives of modelling the environmental dispersal and transport of nuclides to be potentially released from the dumped objects and of assessing the associated radiological impact on man and biota. Models were developed to model the dispersal of the pollutants and for the assessment of the radiological consequences of the releases from the dumped wastes in the Arctic. The results of the model intercomparison exercise were used as a basis on which to evaluate the estimate of concentration fields when detailed source term scenarios were used and also to assess the uncertainties in ensuing dose calculations. The descriptions and modelling work was divided into three main phases: description of the area, collection of relevant and necessary information; extension to and development of predictive models including an extensive model inter-comparison and finally prediction of radiological impact, used in the evaluation of the need and options for remediation

  11. Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laidre, K. L.; Regehr, E. V.; Akcakaya, H. R.; Amstrup, S. C.; Atwood, T.; Lunn, N.; Obbard, M.; Stern, H. L., III; Thiemann, G.; Wiig, O.

    2016-12-01

    Loss of Arctic sea ice due to climate change is the most serious threat to polar bears (Ursus maritimus) throughout their circumpolar range. We performed a data-based sensitivity analysis with respect to this threat by evaluating the potential response of the global polar bear population to projected sea-ice conditions. We conducted 1) an assessment of generation length for polar bears, 2) developed of a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat characteristics for the species; and 3) performed population projections over three generations, using computer simulation and statistical models representing alternative relationships between sea ice and polar bear abundance. Using three separate approaches, the median percent change in mean global population size for polar bears between 2015 and 2050 ranged from -4% (95% CI = -62%, 50%) to -43% (95% CI = -76%, -20%). Results highlight the potential for large reductions in the global population if sea-ice loss continues. They also highlight the large amount of uncertainty in statistical projections of polar bear abundance and the sensitivity of projections to plausible alternative assumptions. The median probability of a reduction in the mean global population size of polar bears greater than 30% over three generations was approximately 0.71 (range 0.20-0.95. The median probability of a reduction greater than 50% was approximately 0.07 (range 0-0.35), and the probability of a reduction greater than 80% was negligible.

  12. Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Robert E.; DeConto, Robert M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Hay, Carling C.; Horton, Radley M.; Kulp, Scott; Oppenheimer, Michael; Pollard, David; Strauss, Benjamin H.

    2017-12-01

    Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

  13. Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Robert E.; DeConto, Robert M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Hay, Carling C.; Horton, Radley M.; Kulp, Scott; Oppenheimer, Michael; Pollard, David; Strauss, Benjamin

    2017-01-01

    Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

  14. Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regehr, Eric V.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Amstrup, Steven C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Lunn, Nicholas J.; Obbard, Martyn E.; Stern, Harry; Thiemann, Gregory W.; Wiig, Øystein

    2016-01-01

    Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979–2014 (median −1.26 days year−1). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35–41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20–0.95), 0.07 (range 0–0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0–0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions.

  15. Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regehr, Eric V; Laidre, Kristin L; Akçakaya, H Resit; Amstrup, Steven C; Atwood, Todd C; Lunn, Nicholas J; Obbard, Martyn; Stern, Harry; Thiemann, Gregory W; Wiig, Øystein

    2016-12-01

    Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979-2014 (median -1.26 days year -1 ). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35-41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20-0.95), 0.07 (range 0-0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0-0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions. © 2016 The Authors.

  16. Tiering strategic environmental assessment and project environmental impact assessment in highway planning in Sao Paulo, Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez, Luis E.; Silva-Sanchez, Solange S.

    2008-01-01

    Constructing highways in dense urban areas is always a challenge. In Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region, heavy truck traffic contributes to clog streets and expressways alike. As part of the traffic neither originates nor head to the region, a peripheral highway has been proposed to reduce traffic problems. This project, called Rodoanel, is an expressway approximately 175 km long. The fact that the projected south and north sections would cross catchments that supply most of the metropolis water demand was strongly disputed and made the environmental permitting process particularly difficult. The agency in charge commissioned a strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of a revamped project, and called it the Rodoanel Programme. However, the SEA report failed to satisfactorily take account of significant strategic issues. Among these, the highway potential effect of inducing urban sprawl over water protection zones is the most critical issue, as it emerged later as a hurdle to project licensing. Conclusion is that, particularly where no agreed-upon framework for SEA exists, when vertical tiering with downstream project EIA is sought, then a careful scoping of strategic issues is more than necessary. If an agreement on 'what is strategic' is not reached and not recognized by influential stakeholders, then the unsettled conflicts will be transferred to project EIA. In such a context, SEA will have added another loop to the usually long road to project approval

  17. Sea level change

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Church, J.A.; Clark, P.U.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A.; Merrifield, M.A.; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Stammer, D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    This chapter considers changes in global mean sea level, regional sea level, sea level extremes, and waves. Confidence in projections of global mean sea level rise has increased since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) because of the improved...

  18. Project NOAH: Regulating modern sea-level rise. Phase II: Jerusalem Underground

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Walter S.; Fairbridge, Rhodes W.

    This proposal builds a high-speed inter-urban express between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, generates 1500 megawatts of hydroelectric energy, curtails littoral erosion, builds a port along the Israeli Mediterranean coast and demands peaceful cooperation on both sides of the Jordan River. Phase II represents a pilot project demonstrating the feasibility of continuing to regulate world sea-level by a new series of water regulation schemes. Phase I previously described all those projects already completed or underway which have inadvertently and/or unintentionally served the purpose of sea-level regulation. These forms of Phase I sea-level regulation include large and small reservoirs, irrigation projects, water infiltration schemes, farm ponds, and swimming and reflecting pools. All these water storage projects have already exercised a very appreciable brake on 20th century sea-level rise. Phase II outlines a high-visibility proposal which will serve to illustrate the viability of “Project NOAH”.

  19. Quality Assurance Project Plan for Verification of Sediment Ecotoxicity Assessment Ring(SEA Ring)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The objective of the verification is to test the efficacy and ability of the Sediment Ecotoxicity Assessment Ring (SEA Ring) to evaluate the toxicity of contaminants in the sediment, at the sediment-water interface, and WC to organisms that live in those respective environments.

  20. [Vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under sea-level rise].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Li-Fang; Wang, Ning; Ge, Zhen-Ming; Zhang, Li-Quan

    2014-02-01

    To study the response of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on the coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisite for securing coastal ecosystems. In this paper, the possible impacts of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model and IPCC definition on the vulnerability. An indicator system for vulnerability assessment was established, in which sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, inundation threshold of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability index for the assessment of coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the scenarios of sea-level rise. The vulnerability assessments on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary in 2030 and 2050 were performed under two sea-level rise scenarios (the present sea-level rise trend over recent 30 years and IPCC A1F1 scenario). The results showed that with the projection in 2030 under the present trend of sea-level rise (0.26 cm x a(-1)), 6.6% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.8% and 0.2% of the coastal wetlands were in low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively. With the projection in 2030 under the A1F1 scenario (0.59 cm x a(-1)), 9.0% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.5%, 1.0% and 0.3% of the coastal wetlands were in the low, moderate and high vulnerabilities, respectively.

  1. Assessing coastal flood risk and sea level rise impacts at New York City area airports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohman, K. A.; Kimball, N.; Osler, M.; Eberbach, S.

    2014-12-01

    Flood risk and sea level rise impacts were assessed for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) at four airports in the New York City area. These airports included John F. Kennedy International, LaGuardia, Newark International, and Teterboro Airports. Quantifying both present day and future flood risk due to climate change and developing flood mitigation alternatives is crucial for the continued operation of these airports. During Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 all four airports were forced to shut down, in part due to coastal flooding. Future climate change and sea level rise effects may result in more frequent shutdowns and disruptions in travel to and from these busy airports. The study examined the effects of the 1%-annual-chance coastal flooding event for present day existing conditions and six different sea level rise scenarios at each airport. Storm surge model outputs from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provided the present day storm surge conditions. 50th and 90thpercentile sea level rise projections from the New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) 2013 report were incorporated into storm surge results using linear superposition methods. These projections were evaluated for future years 2025, 2035, and 2055. In addition to the linear superposition approach for storm surge at airports where waves are a potential hazard, one dimensional wave modeling was performed to get the total water level results. Flood hazard and flood depth maps were created based on these results. In addition to assessing overall flooding at each airport, major at-risk infrastructure critical to the continued operation of the airport was identified and a detailed flood vulnerability assessment was performed. This assessment quantified flood impacts in terms of potential critical infrastructure inundation and developed mitigation alternatives to adapt to coastal flooding and future sea level changes. Results from this project are advancing the PANYNJ

  2. Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

    2008-12-01

    Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise

  3. Relation of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA and the Importance of Strategic Environmental Assessment in Landscape Planning Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gizem CENGİZ GÖKÇE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The main goal in the countries which have not completed their development progress is industrialization and development just as soon as possible. Therefore, negative effects of industrialization and development on envi ronment and/or nature cannot be mostly discussed adequately. One of the planning approach instruments that targets sustainability, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA is used in many countries effectively. But in recent years, that has understood; EIA is an impact assessment instrument that contains defensive preventions only on the basis of projects and this situation has caused some concerns against EIA. In this direction, Strategical Environmental Assessment (SEA exists as the final point of the instruments which are formed to provide sustainable development . In this study; the importance and the requirement of effectively taking a role of landscape architectures that have ecological based job, in the SEA workings which isn’t have got a legal status in Turkey yet, are emphasized by reviewing the relations between EIA and SEA concepts.

  4. Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas-Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.

    2013-07-01

    Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrap-based method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of Hs up to ±10% were obtained, whereas they were around ±20% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of Hs are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the Hs magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.

  5. Regional Mapping and Resource Assessment of Shallow Gas Hydrates of Japan Sea - METI Launched 3 Years Project in 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, R.

    2014-12-01

    Agency of Natural Resources and Energy of METI launched a 3 years shallow gas hydrate exploration project in 2013 to make a precise resource assessment of shallow gas hydrates in the eastern margin of Japan Sea and around Hokkaido. Shallow gas hydrates of Japan Sea occur in fine-grained muddy sediments of shallow subsurface of mounds and gas chimneys in the form of massive nodular to platy accumulation. Gas hydrate bearing mounds are often associated with active methane seeps, bacterial mats and carbonate concretions and pavements. Gases of gas hydrates are derived either from deep thermogenic, shallow microbial or from the mixed gases, contrasting with totally microbial deep-seated stratigraphically controlled hydrates. Shallow gas hydrates in Japan Sea have not been considered as energy resource due to its limited distribution in narrow Joetsu basin. However recently academic research surveys have demonstrated regional distribution of gas chimney and hydrate mound in a number of sedimentary basins along the eastern margin of Japan Sea. Regional mapping of gas chimney and hydrate mound by means of MBES and SBP surveys have confirmed that more than 200 gas chimneys exist in 100 km x 100 km area. ROV dives have identified dense accumulation of hydrates on the wall of half collapsed hydrate mound down to 30 mbsf. Sequential LWD and shallow coring campaign in the Summer of 2014, R/V Hakurei, which is equipped with Fugro Seacore R140 drilling rig, drilled through hydrate mounds and gas chimneys down to the BGHS (base of gas hydrate stability) level and successfully recovered massive gas hydrates bearing sediments from several horizons.

  6. Analytical strategic environmental assessment (ANSEA) developing a new approach to SEA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dalkmann, Holger; Herrera, Rodrigo Jiliberto; Bongardt, Daniel

    2004-01-01

    The objective of analytical strategic environmental assessment (ANSEA) is to provide a decision-centred approach to the SEA process. The ANSEA project evolved from the realisation that, in many cases, SEA, as currently practised, is not able to ensure an appropriate integration of environmental values. The focus of SEA is on predicting impacts, but the tool takes no account of the decision-making processes it is trying to influence. At strategic decision-making levels, in turn, it is often difficult to predict impacts with the necessary exactitude. The decision-making sciences could teach some valuable lessons here. Instead of focusing on the quantitative prediction of environmental consequences, the ANSEA approach concentrates on the integration of environmental objectives into decision-making processes. Thus, the ANSEA approach provides a framework for analysing and assessing the decision-making processes of policies, plans and programmes (PPP). To enhance environmental integration into the decision-making process, decision windows (DW) can be identified. The approach is designed to be objective and transparent to ensure that environmental considerations are taken into account, or--from an ex-post perspective--to allow an evaluation of how far environmental considerations have been integrated into the decision-making process under assessment. The paper describes the concepts and the framework of the ANSEA approach and discusses its relation to SEA and the EC Directive

  7. Analysis of the projected regional sea-ice changes in the Southern Ocean during the twenty-first century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefebvre, W.; Goosse, H. [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie et de Geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

    2008-01-15

    Using the set of simulations performed with atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), the projected regional distribution of sea ice for the twenty-first century has been investigated. Averaged over all those model simulations, the current climate is reasonably well reproduced. However, this averaging procedure hides the errors from individual models. Over the twentieth century, the multimodel average simulates a larger sea-ice concentration decrease around the Antarctic Peninsula compared to other regions, which is in qualitative agreement with observations. This is likely related to the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index over the twentieth century, in both observations and in the multimodel average. Despite the simulated positive future trend in SAM, such a regional feature around the Antarctic Peninsula is absent in the projected sea-ice change for the end of the twenty-first century. The maximum decrease is indeed located over the central Weddell Sea and the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas. In most models, changes in the oceanic currents could play a role in the regional distribution of the sea ice, especially in the Ross Sea, where stronger southward currents could be responsible for a smaller sea-ice decrease during the twenty-first century. Finally, changes in the mixed layer depth can be found in some models, inducing locally strong changes in the sea-ice concentration. (orig.)

  8. Future Arctic marine access: analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Rogers

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available There is an emerging need for regional applications of sea ice projections to provide more accuracy and greater detail to scientists, national, state and local planners, and other stakeholders. The present study offers a prototype for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study to bridge observational data, climate model simulations, and user needs. The study's first component is an observationally based evaluation of Arctic sea ice trends during 1980–2008, with an emphasis on seasonal and regional differences relative to the overall pan-Arctic trend. Regional sea ice loss has varied, with a significantly larger decline of winter maximum (January–March extent in the Atlantic region than in other sectors. A lead–lag regression analysis of Atlantic sea ice extent and ocean temperatures indicates that reduced sea ice extent is associated with increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Correlations between the two variables are greater when ocean temperatures lag rather than lead sea ice. The performance of 13 global climate models is evaluated using three metrics to compare sea ice simulations with the observed record. We rank models over the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants and synthesize model performance across several different studies. The best performing models project reduced ice cover across key access routes in the Arctic through 2100, with a lengthening of seasons for marine operations by 1–3 months. This assessment suggests that the Northwest and Northeast Passages hold potential for enhanced marine access to the Arctic in the future, including shipping and resource development opportunities.

  9. Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayol, J. M.; Marcos, M.

    2018-02-01

    This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low-lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi-model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter-annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind-waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.

  10. CMIP5-downscaled projections for the NW European Shelf Seas: initial results and insights into uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, Jonathan; Palmer, Matthew; Lowe, Jason; Howard, Tom

    2017-04-01

    The North Sea, and wider Northwest European Shelf seas (NWS) are economically, environmentally, and culturally important for a number of European countries. They are protected by European legislation, often with specific reference to the potential impacts of climate change. Coastal climate change projections are an important source of information for effective management of European Shelf Seas. For example, potential changes in the marine environment are a key component of the climate change risk assessments (CCRAs) carried out under the UK Climate Change Act We use the NEMO shelf seas model combined with CMIP5 climate model and EURO-CORDEX regional atmospheric model data to generate new simulations of the NWS. Building on previous work using a climate model perturbed physics ensemble and the POLCOMS, this new model setup is used to provide first indication of the uncertainties associated with: (i) the driving climate model; (ii) the atmospheric downscaling model (iii) the shelf seas downscaling model; (iv) the choice of climate change scenario. Our analysis considers a range of physical marine impacts and the drivers of coastal variability and change, including sea level and the propagation of open ocean signals onto the shelf. The simulations are being carried out as part of the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) and will feed into the following UK CCRA.

  11. A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Perrette

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011. Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6 with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%. Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.

  12. Global projections of extreme sea levels in view of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vousdoukas, M. I.; Feyen, L.; Voukouvalas, E.; Mentaschi, L.; Verlaan, M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Jackson, L. P.

    2017-12-01

    Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world's coasts. The present contribution aims to present global ESL projections obtained by combining dynamic simulations of all the major ESL components during the present century, considering the latest CMIP5 projections for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Baseline values are obtained combining global re-analyses of tides, waves, and storm surges, including the effects of tropical cyclones. The global average RSLR is projected around 20 and 24 cm by the 2050s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively and is projected to reach 46 and 67 cm by the year 2100. The largest increases in MSL are projected along the South Pacific, Australia and West Africa, while the smaller RSLR is projected around East North America, and Europe. Contributions from waves and storm surges show a very weak increasing global trend, which becomes statistically significant only towards the end of the century and under RCP8.5. However, for areas like the East China Sea, Sea of Japan, Alaska, East Bering Sea, as well as the Southern Ocean, climate extremes could increase up to 15%. By the end of this century the 100-year event ESL along the world's coastlines will on average increase by 48 cm for RCP4.5 and 75 cm for RCP8.5. The strongest rise is projected along the Southern Ocean exceeding 1 m under RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Increase exceeding 80 cm is projected for East Asia, West North America, East South America, and the North Indian Ocean. Considering always the business as usual and the year 2100, the lowest increase in ESL100 is projected along the East North America and Europe (below 50 cm). The present findings indicate that, under both RCPs, by the year 2050 the present day 100-year event will occur every 5 years along a large part of the tropics, rendering coastal zones exposed to intermittent flood hazard.

  13. Vulnerability of marginal seas to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomis, Damia; Jordà, Gabriel

    2017-04-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is a serious thread for coastal areas and has a potential negative impact on society and economy. SLR can lead for instance to land loss, beach reduction, increase of the damage of marine storms on coastal infrastructures and to the salinization of underground water streams. It is well acknowledged that future SLR will be inhomogeneous across the globe, with regional differences of up to 100% with respect to global mean sea level (GMSL). Several studies have addressed the projections of SLR at regional scale, but most of them are based on global climate models (GCMs) that have a relatively coarse spatial resolution (>1°). In marginal seas this has proven to be a strong limitation, as their particular configurations require spatial resolutions that are not reachable by present GCMs. A paradigmatic case is the Mediterranean Sea, connected to the global ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar, a narrow passage of 14 km width. The functioning of the Mediterranean Sea involves a variety of processes including an overturning circulation, small-scale convection and a rich mesoscale field. Moreover, the long-term evolution of Mediterranean sea level has been significantly different from the global mean during the last decades. The observations of present climate and the projections for the next decades have lead some authors to hypothesize that the particular characteristics of the basin could allow Mediterranean mean sea level to evolve differently from the global mean. Assessing this point is essential to undertake proper adaptation strategies for the largely populated Mediterranean coastal areas. In this work we apply a new approach that combines regional and global projections to analyse future SLR. In a first step we focus on the quantification of the expected departures of future Mediterranean sea level from GMSL evolution and on the contribution of different processes to these departures. As a result we find that, in spite of its particularities

  14. Projected polar bear sea ice habitat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Stephen G; Castro de la Guardia, Laura; Derocher, Andrew E; Sahanatien, Vicki; Tremblay, Bruno; Huard, David

    2014-01-01

    Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 - 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with respect to habitat loss using metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling. Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo 2-5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. We identify spatially and temporally explicit ice-free periods that extend beyond what polar bears require for nutritional and reproductive demands. Under business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.

  15. Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

    2010-01-01

    -proxy reconstructions assuming that the established relationship between temperature and sea level holds from 200 to 2100 ad. Over the last 2,000 years minimum sea level (-19 to -26 cm) occurred around 1730 ad, maximum sea level (12–21 cm) around 1150 AD. Sea level 2090–2099 is projected to be 0.9 to 1.3 m for the A1B...

  16. Assessment of contaminant concentrations in sediments, fish and mussels sampled from the North Atlantic and European regional seas within the ICON project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Craig D; Webster, Lynda; Martínez-Gómez, Concepción; Burgeot, Thierry; Gubbins, Matthew J; Thain, John E; Vethaak, A Dick; McIntosh, Alistair D; Hylland, Ketil

    2017-03-01

    Understanding the status of contaminants in the marine environment is a requirement of European Union Directives and the Regional Seas Conventions, so that measures to reduce pollution can be identified and their efficacy assessed. The international ICON workshop (Hylland et al., in this issue) was developed in order to test an integrated approach to assessing both contaminant concentrations and their effects. This paper describes and assesses the concentrations of trace metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and polychlorinated biphenyls in sediments, mussels, and fish collected from estuarine, coastal and offshore waters from Iceland to the Mediterranean Sea. For organic contaminants, concentrations progressively increased from Iceland, to the offshore North Sea, to the coastal seas, and were highest in estuaries. Metals had a more complex distribution, reflecting local anthropogenic inputs, natural sources and hydrological conditions. Use of internationally recognised assessment criteria indicated that at no site were concentrations of all contaminants at background and that concentrations of some contaminants were of significant concern in all areas, except the central North Sea. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. BC SEA Solar Hot Water Acceleration project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, N.C. [BC Sustainable Energy Association, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    Although solar hot water heating is an environmentally responsible technology that reduces fossil fuel consumption and helps mitigate global climate change, there are many barriers to its widespread use. Each year, domestic water heating contributes nearly 6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide towards Canada's greenhouse gas emissions. The installation of solar water heaters can eliminate up to 2 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per household. The BC SEA Solar Hot Water Acceleration project was launched in an effort to demonstrate that the technology has the potential to be widely used in homes and businesses across British Columbia. One of the main barriers to the widespread use of solar hot water heating is the initial cost of the system. Lack of public awareness and understanding of the technology are other barriers. However, other jurisdictions around the world have demonstrated that the use of renewables are the product of conscious policy decisions, including low-cost financing and other subsidies that have created demand for these technologies. To this end, the BC SEA Solar Hot Water Acceleration project will test the potential for the rapid acceleration of solar water heating in pilot communities where barriers are removed. The objective of the project is to install 100 solar water systems in homes and 25 in businesses and institutions in communities in British Columbia by July 2007. The project will explore the financial barriers to the installation of solar hot water systems and produce an action plan to reduce these barriers. In addition to leading by example, the project will help the solar energy marketplace, mitigate climate change and improve energy efficiency.

  18. Towards harmonised assessment and classification of "biodiversity status" in the North Sea eco-region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skov, H.; Andersen, Jesper; Vinther, M.

    As one of the milestones in the HARMONY-project a demonstration of the application of the integrative indicator based biodiversity assessment tool (BEAT) was undertaken for the Greater North Sea sub-region across a range of coastal and offshore areas. The first version of the BEAT tool was applie...

  19. Sea Level Rise in the 21st Century: Will projections ever become reliable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willis, J. K.

    2014-12-01

    Global sea level rise has the potential to become one of the most costly and least well predicted impacts of human caused climate change. Unlike global surface temperature, the spread of possible scenarios (as little as 1 foot and as much as 6 feet by 2100) is not due to uncertainty about future rates of greenhouse gas emissions, but rather by a fundamental lack of knowledge about how the major ice sheets will behave in a warming climate. Clearly improved projections of sea level rise should become a major research priority in the next decade. At present, controversial techniques based on comparison with historical analogs and rates of recent warming and sea level rise are often used to create projections for the 21st Century. However, many in the scientific community feel that reliable projections must be based on a sound knowledge of the physics governing sea level rise, and particularly ice sheet behavior. In particular, large portions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet rest on solid earth that sits below sea level. These regions may be threatened, not by atmospheric warming or changes in precipitation, but rather by direct forcing from the ocean. Fledgling efforts to understand these ocean ice interactions are already underway, as are efforts to make improved models of ice sheet behavior. However a great deal of work is still needed before widely accepted projections of sea level rise become a reality. This paper will highlight the hurdles to making such projections today and suggest ways forward in this critical area of research.

  20. On the Application of Science Systems Engineering and Uncertainty Quantification for Ice Sheet Science and Sea Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne; Boening, Carmen; Larour, Eric; Limonadi, Daniel; Schodlok, Michael; Seroussi, Helene; Watkins, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Research and development activities at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) currently support the creation of a framework to formally evaluate the observational needs within earth system science. One of the pilot projects of this effort aims to quantify uncertainties in global mean sea level rise projections, due to contributions from the continental ice sheets. Here, we take advantage of established uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the JPL-University of California at Irvine Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). We conduct sensitivity and Monte-Carlo style sampling experiments on forward simulations of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. By varying internal parameters and boundary conditions of the system over both extreme and credible worst-case ranges, we assess the impact of the different parameter ranges on century-scale sea level rise projections. The results inform efforts to a) isolate the processes and inputs that are most responsible for determining ice sheet contribution to sea level; b) redefine uncertainty brackets for century-scale projections; and c) provide a prioritized list of measurements, along with quantitative information on spatial and temporal resolution, required for reducing uncertainty in future sea level rise projections. Results indicate that ice sheet mass loss is dependent on the spatial resolution of key boundary conditions - such as bedrock topography and melt rates at the ice-ocean interface. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

  1. Assessment of the environmental status for the North Sea and Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Martin Mørk; Fryer, Rob; Andersen, Jesper H.

    to or at background”, green for “no harmful effect to the environment” and red for unacceptable. The HELCOM goals set out in the Baltic Sea action plan are similar, “concentrations of hazardous substances close to natural levels”, “all fish safe to eat”, and “healthy wildlife”. The assessment criteria used......The two Conventions for the Baltic Sea (Helsinki, HELCOM) and the North Sea (Oslo-Paris, OSPAR) both are in the process of assessing the state of the marine environment and producing Quality Status reports for their regions for publication in 2010. These assessments will be part of the basis...... for Marine Strategy work in the EU. An overview of the time trends and status for metals, PCBs and PAHs in biota and sediment for the convention areas will be presented, and the scientific basis for the assessments and how results from different contaminant groups and wider areas are aggregated...

  2. Transportation of foreign-owned enriched uranium from the Republic of Georgia. Environmental assessment for Project Partnership

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (NN) has prepared a classified environmental assessment to evaluate the potential environmental impact for the transportation of 5.26 kilograms of enriched uranium-235 in the form of nuclear fuel, from the Republic of Georgia to the United Kingdom. The nuclear fuel consists of primarily fresh fuel, but also consists of a small quantity (less than 1 kilogram) of partially-spent fuel. Transportation of the enriched uranium fuel would occur via US Air Force military aircraft under the control of the Defense Department European Command (EUCOM). Actions taken in a sovereign nation (such as the Republic of Georgia and the United Kingdom) are not subject to analysis in the environmental assessment. However, because the action would involve the global commons of the Black Sea and the North Sea, the potential impact to the global commons has been analyzed. Because of the similarities in the two actions, the Project Sapphire Environmental Assessment was used as a basis for assessing the potential impacts of Project Partnership. However, because Project Partnership involves a small quantity of partially-spent fuel, additional analysis was conducted to assess the potential environmental impacts and to consider reasonable alternatives as required by NEPA. The Project Partnership Environmental Assessment found the potential environmental impacts to be well below those from Project Sapphire

  3. Probabilistic 21st and 22nd Century Sea-Level Projections at a Global Network of Tide-Gauge Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Robert E.; Horton, Radley M.; Little, Christopher M.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Rasmussen, D. J.; Strauss, Benjamin H.; Tebaldi, Claudia

    2014-01-01

    Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2?m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9?m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8?m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of “1-in-10” and “1-in-100” year events.

  4. Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriver, Ryan L; Lempert, Robert J; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

    2018-01-01

    Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments

  5. Projected polar bear sea ice habitat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen G Hamilton

    Full Text Available Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 - 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with respect to habitat loss using metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling.Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo 2-5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. We identify spatially and temporally explicit ice-free periods that extend beyond what polar bears require for nutritional and reproductive demands.Under business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.

  6. Assessing Sea Level Rise Impacts on the Surficial Aquifer in the Kennedy Space Center Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, H.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Warnock, A. M.; Hall, C. R.

    2014-12-01

    Global sea level rise in the past century due to climate change has been seen at an average rate of approximately 1.7-2.2 mm per year, with an increasing rate over the next century. The increasing SLR rate poses a severe threat to the low-lying land surface and the shallow groundwater system in the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, resulting in saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding. A three-dimensional groundwater flow and salinity transport model is implemented to investigate and evaluate the extent of floods due to rising water table as well as saltwater intrusion. The SEAWAT model is chosen to solve the variable-density groundwater flow and salinity transport governing equations and simulate the regional-scale spatial and temporal evolution of groundwater level and chloride concentration. The horizontal resolution of the model is 50 m, and the vertical domain includes both the Surficial Aquifer and the Floridan Aquifer. The numerical model is calibrated based on the observed hydraulic head and chloride concentration. The potential impacts of sea level rise on saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding are assessed under various sea level rise scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the potential landward movement of saltwater and freshwater fringe is projected. The existing water supply wells are examined overlaid with the projected salinity distribution map. The projected Surficial Aquifer water tables are overlaid with data of high resolution land surface elevation, land use and land cover, and infrastructure to assess the potential impacts of sea level rise. This study provides useful tools for decision making on ecosystem management, water supply planning, and facility management.

  7. Assessment of MEGA BORG impacts on sea turtles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gitschlag, G.

    1993-01-01

    Studies were conducted to assess the impacts of the MEGA BORG oil spill on sea turtles in the path of the oil plume. Aerial surveys were performed to determine the presence of turtles and provide a gross visual assessment of potential impacts. Although extensive efforts were made to capture sea turtles around oil and gas platforms only one loggerhead sea turtle, Caretta caretta, was captured. Neither external visual inspection nor laboratory fecal analysis showed evidence of petroleum contamination

  8. SALTON SEA SCIENTIFIC DRILLING PROJECT: SCIENTIFIC PROGRAM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sass, J.H.; Elders, W.A.

    1986-01-01

    The Salton Sea Scientific Drilling Project, was spudded on 24 October 1985, and reached a total depth of 10,564 ft. (3. 2 km) on 17 March 1986. There followed a period of logging, a flow test, and downhole scientific measurements. The scientific goals were integrated smoothly with the engineering and economic objectives of the program and the ideal of 'science driving the drill' in continental scientific drilling projects was achieved in large measure. The principal scientific goals of the project were to study the physical and chemical processes involved in an active, magmatically driven hydrothermal system. To facilitate these studies, high priority was attached to four areas of sample and data collection, namely: (1) core and cuttings, (2) formation fluids, (3) geophysical logging, and (4) downhole physical measurements, particularly temperatures and pressures.

  9. Surging Seas Risk Finder: A Tool for Local-Scale Flood Risk Assessments in Coastal Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulp, S. A.; Strauss, B.

    2015-12-01

    Local decision makers in coastal cities require accurate, accessible, and thorough assessments of flood exposure risk within their individual municipality, in their efforts to mitigate against damage due to future sea level rise. To fill this need, we have developed Climate Central's Surging Seas Risk Finder, an interactive data toolkit which presents our sea level rise and storm surge analysis for every coastal town, city, county, and state within the USA. Using this tool, policy makers can easily zoom in on their local place of interest to receive a detailed flood risk assessment, which synthesizes a wide range of features including total population, socially vulnerable population, housing, property value, road miles, power plants, schools, hospitals, and many other critical facilities. Risk Finder can also be used to identify specific points of interest in danger of exposure at different flood levels. Additionally, this tool provides localized storm surge probabilities and sea level rise projections at tidal gauges along the coast, so that users can quickly understand the risk of flooding in their area over the coming decades.

  10. The consideration of health in strategic environmental assessment (SEA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, Thomas B; Matuzzi, Marco; Nowacki, Julia

    2010-01-01

    Following the requirements of the European Directive 2001/42/EC on strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and the Protocol on Strategic Environmental Assessment (Kiev, 2003) to the Convention on Environmental Impact Assessment in a Transboundary Context (Espoo, 1991), health is one of the aspects to be considered in SEA. In this paper, results of an evaluation of eight SEAs from Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom (England and Wales) regarding the consideration of health are presented. This includes SEAs for five spatial plans, as well as one SEA for each, a transport, a waste management and an economic development plan. It is found that while all SEAs cover important physical and natural aspects that are related to health, social and behavioural aspects are considered to a much smaller extent. Based on the results, facilitating factors and barriers for health inclusive SEA are identified. Overall, good baseline data can be seen as an important starting point for effective health inclusive SEA, while an effective monitoring system is crucial for effective implementation of the measures and recommendations brought forward in health inclusive SEA. Crucially, health authorities/health experts need to engage more with SEA, as this provides a key platform for cross sectoral dialogue on a range of issues. SEA presents the health sector with an opportunity to influence the policy and decision-making process to improve people's health and well-being.

  11. Regional sea level projections with observed gauge, altimeter and reconstructed data along China coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, L.; Shi, H.; Zhang, S.

    2017-12-01

    Acting as the typical shelf seas in northwest Pacific Ocean, regional sea level along China coasts exhibits complicated and multiscale spatial-temporal characteristics under circumstance of global change. In this paper, sea level variability is investigated with tide gauges records, satellite altimetry data, reconstructed sea surface height, and CMIP simulation fields. Sea level exhibits the interannual variability imposing on a remarkable sea level rising in the China seas and coastal region, although its seasonal signals are significant as the results of global ocean. Sea level exhibits faster rising rate during the satellite altimetry era, nearly twice to the rate during the last sixty years. AVISO data and reconstructed sea surface heights illustrate good correlation coefficient, more than 0.8. Interannual sea level variation is mainly modulated by the low-frequency variability of wind fields over northern Pacific Ocean by local and remote processes. Meanwhile sea level varies obviously by the transport fluctuation and bimodality path of Kuroshio. Its variability possibly linked to internal variability of the ocean-atmosphere system influenced by ENSO oscillation. China Sea level have been rising during the 20th century, and are projected to continue to rise during this century. Sea level can reach the highest extreme level in latter half of 21st century. Modeled sea level including regional sea level projection combined with the IPCC climate scenarios play a significant role on coastal storm surge evolution. The vulnerable regions along the ECS coast will suffer from the increasing storm damage with sea level variations.

  12. Reconciling projections of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Tamsin; Holden, Philip; Edwards, Neil; Wernecke, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Two recent studies of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise this century had best estimates that differed by an order of magnitude (around 10 cm and 1 m by 2100). The first, Ritz et al. (2015), used a model calibrated with satellite data, giving a 5% probability of exceeding 30cm by 2100 for sea level rise due to Antarctic instability. The second, DeConto and Pollard (2016), used a model evaluated with reconstructions of palaeo-sea level. They did not estimate probabilities, but using a simple assumption here about the distribution shape gives up to a 5% chance of Antarctic contribution exceeding 2.3 m this century with total sea level rise approaching 3 m. If robust, this would have very substantial implications for global adaptation to climate change. How are we to make sense of this apparent inconsistency? How much is down to the data - does the past tell us we will face widespread and rapid Antarctic ice losses in the future? How much is due to the mechanism of rapid ice loss ('cliff failure') proposed in the latter paper, or other parameterisation choices in these low resolution models (GRISLI and PISM, respectively)? How much is due to choices made in the ensemble design and calibration? How do these projections compare with high resolution, grounding line resolving models such as BISICLES? Could we reduce the huge uncertainties in the palaeo-study? Emulation provides a powerful tool for understanding these questions and reconciling the projections. By describing the three numerical ice sheet models with statistical models, we can re-analyse the ensembles and re-do the calibrations under a common statistical framework. This reduces uncertainty in the PISM study because it allows massive sampling of the parameter space, which reduces the sensitivity to reconstructed palaeo-sea level values and also narrows the probability intervals because the simple assumption about distribution shape above is no longer needed. We present reconciled probabilistic

  13. Project scoping for lessons learnt to apply to the Celtic Seas marine sub-region

    OpenAIRE

    Twomey, Sarah; O'Mahony, Cathal

    2013-01-01

    This report involves a formal scoping exercise to identify lessons from a wide range of previous and current project and initiative experiences at the national, regional seas, European and global levels. An inventory of 77 projects and initiatives that are relevant with regard to the key activities proposed by the Celtic Seas Partnership has been compiled, as well as a short-list of 23 of the most pertinent projects, lessons learnt and contact names. This report has identified a number of syn...

  14. PROJECTING POPULATION-LEVEL RESPONSE OF PURPLE SEA URCHINS TO LEAD CONTAMINATION FOR AN ESTUARINE ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of an ecological risk assessment case study at the Portsmouth naval Shipyard (PNS), Kittery, Maine, USA, the population level effects of lead exposure to purple sea urchin, Arbacia punctulata, were investigated using a stage-classified matrix population model. The model d...

  15. Radioactivity in the Baltic Sea, 1999-2006 HELCOM thematic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, J.; Ikaeheimonen, T.K.; Ilus, E.; Kanisch, G.; Luning, M.; Mattila, J.; Nielsen, S.P.; Osvath, I.; Outola, I.

    2009-01-01

    The report describes work carried out by HELCOM's (Helsinki Commission, Baltic Marine Environment Commission) project on the Monitoring of Radioactive Substances in the Baltic Sea (MORS-PRO) during the period 1999-2006. The main topics include: sources of man-made radioactivity in the Baltic Sea; levels of man-made radionuclides in seawater, sediments and biota; work on modelling and evaluations of the riks to man caused by radioactivity in the Baltic Sea; comparison of man-made radionuclides in the Baltic Sea with levels in other sea regions. The concequent recommendations and work on data quality are presented in the Appendix

  16. Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, Robert J.; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

    2018-01-01

    Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments

  17. Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan L Sriver

    Full Text Available Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1 Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2 Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making

  18. Sustainability assessment: dressing up SEA - experiences from South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Govender, K

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available as Sustainability Assessment and how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) has been conceptualised and promoted in South Africa. This paper therefore investigates the following questions: Could the South African concept and application of SEA be what is required...

  19. Salton Sea ecosystem monitoring and assessment plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case(compiler), H. L.; Boles, Jerry; Delgado, Arturo; Nguyen, Thang; Osugi, Doug; Barnum, Douglas A.; Decker, Drew; Steinberg, Steven; Steinberg, Sheila; Keene, Charles; White, Kristina; Lupo, Tom; Gen, Sheldon; Baerenklau, Ken A.

    2013-01-01

    The Salton Sea, California’s largest lake, provides essential habitat for several fish and wildlife species and is an important cultural and recreational resource. It has no outlet, and dissolved salts contained in the inflows concentrate in the Salton Sea through evaporation. The salinity of the Salton Sea, which is currently nearly one and a half times the salinity of ocean water, has been increasing as a result of evaporative processes and low freshwater inputs. Further reductions in inflows from water conservation, recycling, and transfers will lower the level of the Salton Sea and accelerate the rate of salinity increases, reduce the suitability of fish and wildlife habitat, and affect air quality by exposing lakebed playa that could generate dust. Legislation enacted in 2003 to implement the Quantification Settlement Agreement (QSA) stated the Legislature’s intent for the State of California to undertake the restoration of the Salton Sea ecosystem. As required by the legislation, the California Resources Agency (now California Natural Resources Agency) produced the Salton Sea Ecosystem Restoration Study and final Programmatic Environmental Impact Report (PEIR; California Resources Agency, 2007) with the stated purpose to “develop a preferred alternative by exploring alternative ways to restore important ecological functions of the Salton Sea that have existed for about 100 years.” A decision regarding a preferred alternative currently resides with the California State Legislature (Legislature), which has yet to take action. As part of efforts to identify an ecosystem restoration program for the Salton Sea, and in anticipation of direction from the Legislature, the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW), U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) established a team to develop a monitoring and assessment plan (MAP). This plan is the product of that effort. The

  20. The Impact of Tax Shocks and Oil Price Volatility on Risk - A Study of North Sea Oilfield Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Kretzschmar, Gavin Lee; Moles, Peter

    2006-01-01

    We examine the impact of market volatility and increased fiscal take on risk in strategic natural resource projects. An increase in 2006 UK oilfield taxation is used as a natural experiment for assessing the impact of a fiscal increase on oilfield projects comprising 73% of UK reserves. Stochastic cash flow at risk models combine market volatility and tax-take at the oilfield level to extend earlier North Sea studies. We demonstrate that a 10% Secondary tax increase in a composite UKCS fiscal...

  1. Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

  2. The SAVEMEDCOASTS Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anzidei, Marco; Patias, Petros; Forlenza, Giovanna; Trivigno, Maria Lucia; Michetti, Melania; Torresan, Silvia; Loizidou, Xenia; Petousis, Thanos; Doumaz, Fawzi; Lorito, Stefano; Brunori, Carlo Alberto; Pesci, Arianna; Carmisciano, Cosmo

    2017-04-01

    The SAVEMEDCOASTS Project (Sea Level Rise Scenarios along the Mediterranean Coasts), focuses on the Prevention Priority program of the European Commission ECHO A.5 "Civil protection policy, Prevention, Preparedness and Disaster Risk Reduction" and aims to respond to the need for people and assets prevention from natural disasters in Mediterranean coastal areas undergoing to increasing sea level rise and climate change impacts. The goals of the project are: i) to support civil protection at different levels and with different tools and methods to produce exhaustive risk assessments for different periods; ii) to improve governance and raise community awareness towards the impacts of sea level rise and related hazard; iii) to foster the cooperation amongst science, affected communities and civil protection organizations within and between targeted Mediterranean areas. Advanced methods are implied to develop multi-hazard assessments and existing databases for low-lying coastal areas already below or at less than 1 m above sea level, characterized by high economic and environmental value. The effects of sea level rise are assessed by mapping the multi-temporal scenarios of the inland extension of marine flooding and coastline position up to 2100, also temporarily increased during storms or tsunamis. They will result from i) the best available high resolution Digital Terrain Models (DTM); ii) known rates of land subsidence and iii) local sea level rise estimates. Finally, information is transferred to society, policy makers and stakeholders through an open web platform populated with collected information, videos and photo galleries, project results and guidelines. Here we show the strategy and goals of the SAVEMEDCOASTS Project.

  3. First stage of INTRAMAP: INtegrated Transantarctic Mountains and Ross Sea Area Magnetic Anomaly Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Damaske

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available INTRAMAP (INtegrated Transantarctic Mountains and Ross Sea Area Magnetic Anomaly Project is an international effort to merge the magnetic data acquired throughout the "Ross Sea Antarctic Sector" (south of 60°S between 135°-255°E including the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM, the Ross Sea, Marie Byrd Land, and the Pacific coast, and also to begin the compilation efforts for new data over the Wilkes Basin. This project is a component of the continental scale Antarctic Digital Magnetic Anomaly Project (ADMAP. The first stage of INTRAMAP addresses the analysis and merging of GITARA (1991-1994 and GANOVEX (1984 aeromagnetic surveys together with ground magnetic data (1984-1989. The combined data sets cover an area of approximately 30 km2 over Victoria Land and adjacent Ross Sea. Map and profile gridding were implemented to integrate the data sets. These approaches are studied for improving existing strategies to adopt for the whole magnetic compilation effort. The final microlevelled grid that we produce is a new tool for regional interpretation of the main tectonic and geologic features of this sector of Antarctica.

  4. Sea Extremes: Integrated impact assessment in coastal climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorensen, Carlo; Knudsen, Per; Broge, Niels; Molgaard, Mads; Andersen, Ole

    2016-04-01

    We investigate effects of sea level rise and a change in precipitation pattern on coastal flooding hazards. Historic and present in situ and satellite data of water and groundwater levels, precipitation, vertical ground motion, geology, and geotechnical soil properties are combined with flood protection measures, topography, and infrastructure to provide a more complete picture of the water-related impact from climate change at an exposed coastal location. Results show that future sea extremes evaluated from extreme value statistics may, indeed, have a large impact. The integrated effects from future storm surges and other geo- and hydro-parameters need to be considered in order to provide for the best protection and mitigation efforts, however. Based on the results we present and discuss a simple conceptual model setup that can e.g. be used for 'translation' of regional sea level rise evidence and projections to concrete impact measures. This may be used by potentially affected stakeholders -often working in different sectors and across levels of governance, in a common appraisal of the challenges faced ahead. The model may also enter dynamic tools to evaluate local impact as sea level research advances and projections for the future are updated.

  5. Challenges in Projecting Sea Level Rise impacts on the Coastal Environment of South Florida (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obeysekera, J.; Park, J.; Irizarry-Ortiz, M. M.; Barnes, J. A.; Trimble, P.; Said, W.

    2010-12-01

    Due to flat topography, a highly transmissive groundwater aquifer, and a growing population with the associated infrastructure, South Florida’s coastal environment is one of the most vulnerable areas to sea level rise. Current projections of sea level rise and the associated storm surges will have direct impacts on coastal beaches and infrastructure, flood protection, freshwater aquifers, and both the isolated and regional wetlands. Uncertainties in current projections have made it difficult for regional and local governments to develop adaptation strategies as such measures will depend heavily on the temporal and spatial patterns of sea level rise in the coming decades. We demonstrate the vulnerability of both the built and natural environments of the coastal region and present the current efforts to understand and predict the sea level rise estimate that management agencies could employ in planning of adaptation strategies. In particular, the potential vulnerabilities of the flood control system as well as the threat to the water supply wellfields in the coastal belt will be presented. In an effort to understand the historical variability of sea level rise, we present linkages to natural phenomena such as Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, and the analytical methods we have developed to provide probabilistic projections of both mean sea level rise and the extremes.

  6. Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project)

    OpenAIRE

    Bindschadler, Robert A.; Nowicki, Sophie; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Aschwanden, Andy; Choi, Hyeungu; Fastook, Jim; Granzow, Glen; Greve, Ralf; Gutowski, Gail; Herzfeld, Ute; Jackson, Charles; Johnson, Jesse; Khroulev, Constantine; Levermann, Anders; Lipscomb, William H.

    2013-01-01

    Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggestin...

  7. A high-resolution assessment of wind and wave energy potentials in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Langodan, Sabique

    2016-08-24

    This study presents an assessment of the potential for harvesting wind and wave energy from the Red Sea based on an 18-year high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalysis recently generated using the Advanced Weather Research Forecasting model. This model was initialized with ERA-Interim global data and the Red Sea reanalysis was generated using a cyclic three-dimensional variational approach assimilating available data in the region. The wave hindcast was generated using WAVEWATCH III on a 5 km resolution grid, forced by the Red Sea reanalysis surface winds. The wind and wave products were validated against data from buoys, scatterometers and altimeters. Our analysis suggests that the distribution of wind and wave energy in the Red Sea is inhomogeneous and is concentrated in specific areas, characterized by various meteorological conditions including weather fronts, mesoscale vortices, land and sea breezes and mountain jets. A detailed analysis of wind and wave energy variation was performed at three hotspots representing the northern, central and southern parts of the Red Sea. Although there are potential sites for harvesting wind energy from the Red Sea, there are no potential sites for harvesting wave energy because wave energy in the Red Sea is not strong enough for currently available wave energy converters. Wave energy should not be completely ignored, however, at least from the perspective of hybrid wind-wave projects. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannaby, Heather; Palmer, Matthew D.; Howard, Tom; Bricheno, Lucy; Calvert, Daley; Krijnen, Justin; Wood, Richard; Tinker, Jonathan; Bunney, Chris; Harle, James; Saulter, Andrew; O'Neill, Clare; Bellingham, Clare; Lowe, Jason

    2016-05-01

    Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time-mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ˜ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( ˜ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980 to 2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea-surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data, respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically

  9. Projected shifts in copepod surface communities in the Mediterranean Sea under several climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedetti, F.; Guilhaumon, F.; Adloff, F.; Irisson, J. O.; Ayata, S. D.

    2016-02-01

    Although future increases in water temperature and future changes in regional circulation are expected to have great impacts on the pelagic food-web, estimates focusing on community-level shifts are still lacking for the planktonic compartment. By combining statistical niche models (or species distribution models) with projections from a regional circulation model, the impact of climate change on copepod epipelagic communities is assessed for the Mediterranean Sea. Habitat suitability maps are generated for 106 of the most abundant copepod species to analyze emerging patterns of diversity at the community level. Using variance analysis, we also quantified the uncertainties associated to our modeling strategy (niche model choice, CO2 emission scenario, boundary forcings of the circulation model). Comparing present and future projections, changes in species richness (alpha diversity) and in community composition (beta diversity, decomposed into turnover and nestedness component) are calculated. Average projections show that copepod communities will mainly experience turn-over processes, with little changes in species richness. Species gains are mainly located in the Gulf of Lions, the Northern Adriatic and the Northern Aegean seas. However, projections are highly variable, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean basin. We show that such variability is mainly driven by the choice of the niche model, through interactions with the CO2 emission scenario or the boundary forcing of the circulation model can be locally important. Finally, the possible impact of the estimated community changes on zooplanktonic functional and phylogenetic diversity is also assessed. We encourage the enlargement of this type of study to other components of the pelagic food-web, and argue that niche models' outputs should always be given along with a measure of uncertainty, and explained in light of a strong theoretical background.

  10. About uncertainties in sea ice thickness retrieval from satellite radar altimetry: results from the ESA-CCI Sea Ice ECV Project Round Robin Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kern, S.; Khvorostovsky, K.; Skourup, H.; Rinne, E.; Parsakhoo, Z. S.; Djepa, V.; Wadhams, P.; Sandven, S.

    2014-03-01

    One goal of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative sea ice Essential Climate Variable project is to provide a quality controlled 20 year long data set of Arctic Ocean winter-time sea ice thickness distribution. An important step to achieve this goal is to assess the accuracy of sea ice thickness retrieval based on satellite radar altimetry. For this purpose a data base is created comprising sea ice freeboard derived from satellite radar altimetry between 1993 and 2012 and collocated observations of snow and sea ice freeboard from Operation Ice Bridge (OIB) and CryoSat Validation Experiment (CryoVEx) air-borne campaigns, of sea ice draft from moored and submarine Upward Looking Sonar (ULS), and of snow depth from OIB campaigns, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer aboard EOS (AMSR-E) and the Warren Climatology (Warren et al., 1999). An inter-comparison of the snow depth data sets stresses the limited usefulness of Warren climatology snow depth for freeboard-to-thickness conversion under current Arctic Ocean conditions reported in other studies. This is confirmed by a comparison of snow freeboard measured during OIB and CryoVEx and snow freeboard computed from radar altimetry. For first-year ice the agreement between OIB and AMSR-E snow depth within 0.02 m suggests AMSR-E snow depth as an appropriate alternative. Different freeboard-to-thickness and freeboard-to-draft conversion approaches are realized. The mean observed ULS sea ice draft agrees with the mean sea ice draft computed from radar altimetry within the uncertainty bounds of the data sets involved. However, none of the realized approaches is able to reproduce the seasonal cycle in sea ice draft observed by moored ULS satisfactorily. A sensitivity analysis of the freeboard-to-thickness conversion suggests: in order to obtain sea ice thickness as accurate as 0.5 m from radar altimetry, besides a freeboard estimate with centimetre accuracy, an ice-type dependent sea ice density is as mandatory

  11. Final project memorandum: sea-level rise modeling handbook: resource guide for resource managers, engineers, and scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.

    2015-01-01

    Coastal wetlands of the Southeastern United States are undergoing retreat and migration from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. Much of the literature describing potential sea-level rise projections and modeling predictions are found in peer-reviewed academic journals or government technical reports largely suited to reading by other Ph.D. scientists who are more familiar or engaged in the climate change debate. Various sea-level rise and coastal wetland models have been developed and applied of different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting habitat and environmental change that have not heretofore been synthesized to aid natural resource managers of their utility and limitations. Training sessions were conducted with Federal land managers with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserves as well as state partners and nongovernmental organizations across the northern Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas to educate and to evaluate user needs and understanding of concepts, data, and modeling tools for projecting sea-level rise and its impact on coastal habitats and wildlife. As a result, this handbook was constructed from these training and feedback sessions with coastal managers and biologists of published decision-support tools and simulation models for sea-level rise and climate change assessments. A simplified tabular context was developed listing the various kinds of decision-support tools and ecological models along with criteria to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic data sets, physical and biological constraints and relationships, datum characteristics of water and land elevation components, utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios, and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. The handbook is designed

  12. Coupling physically based and data-driven models for assessing freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayzel, Georgy; Izhitskiy, Alexander

    2018-06-01

    The Aral Sea desiccation and related changes in hydroclimatic conditions on a regional level is a hot topic for past decades. The key problem of scientific research projects devoted to an investigation of modern Aral Sea basin hydrological regime is its discontinuous nature - the only limited amount of papers takes into account the complex runoff formation system entirely. Addressing this challenge we have developed a continuous prediction system for assessing freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea based on coupling stack of hydrological and data-driven models. Results show a good prediction skill and approve the possibility to develop a valuable water assessment tool which utilizes the power of classical physically based and modern machine learning models both for territories with complex water management system and strong water-related data scarcity. The source code and data of the proposed system is available on a Github page (https://github.com/SMASHIproject/IWRM2018" target="_blank">https://github.com/SMASHIproject/IWRM2018).

  13. Projected change in atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea towards 2020

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hertel, Ole; Geels, Camilla; Hansen, K.M.

    2011-01-01

    this is projected to decrease to 48 %. For some countries the projected decrease in N deposition arising from the implementation of the NEC-II directive will be a considerable part of the reductions agreed on in the provisional reduction targets of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. This underlines the importance......The ecological status of the Baltic Sea has for many years been affected by the high input of both waterborne and airborne nutrients. The focus is here on the airborne input of nitrogen (N) and the projected changes in this input, assuming the new National Emission Ceilings directive (NEC...... scenario, giving a projected reduction of 38 k tonnes N in the annual load in 2020. This equals a decline in N deposition of 19 %. The results from 20 model runs using the tagging method show that of the total N deposition in 2007, 52 % came from emissions within the bordering countries. By 2020...

  14. What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwiatkowski, Lester; Halloran, Paul R.; Mumby, Peter J.; Stephenson, David B.

    2014-09-01

    Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming.

  15. Development of tools for integrated monitoring and assessment of hazardous substances and their biological effects in the Baltic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtonen, Kari K; Sundelin, Brita; Lang, Thomas; Strand, Jakob

    2014-02-01

    The need to develop biological effects monitoring to facilitate a reliable assessment of hazardous substances has been emphasized in the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission. An integrated chemical-biological approach is vitally important for the understanding and proper assessment of anthropogenic pressures and their effects on the Baltic Sea. Such an approach is also necessary for prudent management aiming at safeguarding the sustainable use of ecosystem goods and Services. The BEAST project (Biological Effects of Anthropogenic Chemical Stress: Tools for the Assessment of Ecosystem Health) set out to address this topic within the BONUS Programme. BEAST generated a large amount of quality-assured data on several biological effects parameters (biomarkers) in various marine species in different sub-regions of the Baltic Sea. New indicators (biological response measurement methods) and management tools (integrated indices) with regard to the integrated monitoring approach were suggested.

  16. Assessing Deep Sea Communities Through Seabed Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matkin, A. G.; Cross, K.; Milititsky, M.

    2016-02-01

    The deep sea still remains virtually unexplored. Human activity, such as oil and gas exploration and deep sea mining, is expanding further into the deep sea, increasing the need to survey and map extensive areas of this habitat in order to assess ecosystem health and value. The technology needed to explore this remote environment has been advancing. Seabed imagery can cover extensive areas of the seafloor and investigate areas where sampling with traditional coring methodologies is just not possible (e.g. cold water coral reefs). Remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) are an expensive option, so drop or towed camera systems can provide a more viable and affordable alternative, while still allowing for real-time control. Assessment of seabed imagery in terms of presence, abundance and density of particular species can be conducted by bringing together a variety of analytical tools for a holistic approach. Sixteen deep sea transects located offshore West Africa were investigated with a towed digital video telemetry system (DTS). Both digital stills and video footage were acquired. An extensive data set was obtained from over 13,000 usable photographs, allowing for characterisation of the different habitats present in terms of community composition and abundance. All observed fauna were identified to the lowest taxonomic level and enumerated when possible, with densities derived after the seabed area was calculated for each suitable photograph. This methodology allowed for consistent assessment of the different habitat types present, overcoming constraints, such as specific taxa that cannot be enumerated, such as sponges, corals or bryozoans, the presence of mobile and sessile species, or the level of taxonomic detail. Although this methodology will not enable a full characterisation of a deep sea community, in terms of species composition for instance, itt will allow a robust assessment of large areas of the deep sea in terms of sensitive habitats present and community

  17. Assessment of biological effects of environmental pollution along the NW Mediterranean Sea using mussels as sentinel organisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zorita, Izaskun; Apraiz, Itxaso; Ortiz-Zarragoitia, Maren; Orbea, Amaia; Cancio, Ibon; Soto, Manu; Marigomez, Ionan; Cajaraville, Miren P.

    2007-01-01

    With the aim of assessing the biological effects of pollution along three gradients of pollution in the NW Mediterranean Sea, a biomonitoring survey was implemented using a battery of biomarkers (lysosomal membrane stability, lysosomal structural changes, metallothionein (MT) induction and peroxisome proliferation) in mussels over a period of two years as part of the EU-funded BEEP project. Mussels from the most impacted zones (Fos, Genova and Barcelona harbours) showed enlarged lysosomes accompanied by reduced labilisation period of lysosomal membranes, indicating disturbed health. MT levels did not reveal significant differences between stations and were significantly correlated with gonad index, suggesting that they were influenced by gamete development. Peroxisomal acyl-CoA oxidase (AOX) activity was significantly inhibited in polluted stations possibly due to interactions among mixtures of pollutants. In conclusion, the application of a battery of effect and exposure biomarkers provided relevant data for the assessment of biological effects of environmental pollution along the NW Mediterranean Sea. - The biomarker approach is suitable for assessment of environmental pollution in the NW Mediterranean Sea

  18. Assessment of biological effects of environmental pollution along the NW Mediterranean Sea using mussels as sentinel organisms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zorita, Izaskun [Biologia Zelularra eta Histologia Laborategia, Zoologia eta Biologia Zelularra Saila, Zientzia eta Teknologia Fakultatea, Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea/Univ. del Pais Vasco, 644 P.K., E-48080 Bilbao, Basque Country (Spain); Apraiz, Itxaso [Biologia Zelularra eta Histologia Laborategia, Zoologia eta Biologia Zelularra Saila, Zientzia eta Teknologia Fakultatea, Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea/Univ. del Pais Vasco, 644 P.K., E-48080 Bilbao, Basque Country (Spain); Ortiz-Zarragoitia, Maren [Biologia Zelularra eta Histologia Laborategia, Zoologia eta Biologia Zelularra Saila, Zientzia eta Teknologia Fakultatea, Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea/Univ. del Pais Vasco, 644 P.K., E-48080 Bilbao, Basque Country (Spain); Orbea, Amaia [Biologia Zelularra eta Histologia Laborategia, Zoologia eta Biologia Zelularra Saila, Zientzia eta Teknologia Fakultatea, Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea/Univ. del Pais Vasco, 644 P.K., E-48080 Bilbao, Basque Country (Spain); Cancio, Ibon [Biologia Zelularra eta Histologia Laborategia, Zoologia eta Biologia Zelularra Saila, Zientzia eta Teknologia Fakultatea, Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea/Univ. del Pais Vasco, 644 P.K., E-48080 Bilbao, Basque Country (Spain); Soto, Manu [Biologia Zelularra eta Histologia Laborategia, Zoologia eta Biologia Zelularra Saila, Zientzia eta Teknologia Fakultatea, Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea/Univ. del Pais Vasco, 644 P.K., E-48080 Bilbao, Basque Country (Spain); Marigomez, Ionan [Biologia Zelularra eta Histologia Laborategia, Zoologia eta Biologia Zelularra Saila, Zientzia eta Teknologia Fakultatea, Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea/Univ. del Pais Vasco, 644 P.K., E-48080 Bilbao, Basque Country (Spain); Cajaraville, Miren P. [Biologia Zelularra eta Histologia Laborategia, Zoologia eta Biologia Zelularra Saila, Zientzia eta Teknologia Fakultatea, Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea/Univ. del Pais Vasco, 644 P.K., E-48080 Bilbao, Basque Country (Spain)]. E-mail: mirenp.cajaraville@ehu.es

    2007-07-15

    With the aim of assessing the biological effects of pollution along three gradients of pollution in the NW Mediterranean Sea, a biomonitoring survey was implemented using a battery of biomarkers (lysosomal membrane stability, lysosomal structural changes, metallothionein (MT) induction and peroxisome proliferation) in mussels over a period of two years as part of the EU-funded BEEP project. Mussels from the most impacted zones (Fos, Genova and Barcelona harbours) showed enlarged lysosomes accompanied by reduced labilisation period of lysosomal membranes, indicating disturbed health. MT levels did not reveal significant differences between stations and were significantly correlated with gonad index, suggesting that they were influenced by gamete development. Peroxisomal acyl-CoA oxidase (AOX) activity was significantly inhibited in polluted stations possibly due to interactions among mixtures of pollutants. In conclusion, the application of a battery of effect and exposure biomarkers provided relevant data for the assessment of biological effects of environmental pollution along the NW Mediterranean Sea. - The biomarker approach is suitable for assessment of environmental pollution in the NW Mediterranean Sea.

  19. Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, Kristina A; Fitzpatrick, Melanie F; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

    2017-01-01

    Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001-2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years.

  20. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA, Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA and Sustainability in Minas Gerais

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evandro Sanguinetto

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper was aimed at conducting a bibliographical research on Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA, Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA and their relation to the Ecological Economic Zoning (EEZ in the state of Minas Gerais. It is believed that the EIA is subject to failures as it does not take into account larger impacts upon space, time, cumulative and synergistic effects, whereas reflecting a reductionist point of view of the undertaking to the detriment of a broader, systemic, holistic perspective. With a view to compensate for such failure, the SEA is seen as an appropriate tool for the evaluation of political impacts, plans and programs which, conversely, guides the implementation of projects in an more integrated manner. Therefore, two EIAs can be used as reference; one refers to a rural electrification program in the state of Minas Gerais and the other approaches the integration planning of water sources in the metropolitan area of the state of São Paulo. While planning the Ecological Economic Zoning of the state, Minas Gerais takes a decisive step forward the reduction of conflicts related with multiple interests of economic development, providing and forming the basis for the essential balance among profit, preservation and environmental conservation, social justice, respect and cultural diversity, political and institutional maturation, ethic and plurality, which splash the sustainability colors on the canvas of the future.

  1. Sustainable manure management in the Baltic Sea Region - results, cases and project recommendations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tybirk, Knud; Luostarinen, S; Hamelin, Lorie

    This magazine contains the major results, conclusions and recommendations of the project Baltic Forum for Innovative Technologies for Sustainable Manure Management (Baltic Manure) which via co-funding from Interreg Baltic Sea Region programme has been a Flagship project in the EU Strategy...

  2. Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A. B. A.

    2017-07-01

    One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs.

  3. The SeaView EarthCube project: Lessons Learned from Integrating Across Repositories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diggs, S. C.; Stocks, K. I.; Arko, R. A.; Kinkade, D.; Shepherd, A.; Olson, C. J.; Pham, A.

    2017-12-01

    SeaView is an NSF-funded EarthCube Integrative Activity Project working with 5 existing data repositories* to provide oceanographers with highly integrated thematic data collections in user-requested formats. The project has three complementary goals: Supporting Scientists: SeaView targets scientists' need for easy access to data of interest that are ready to import into their preferred tool. Strengthening Repositories: By integrating data from multiple repositories for science use, SeaView is helping the ocean data repositories align their data and processes and make ocean data more accessible and easily integrated. Informing EarthCube (earthcube.org): SeaView's experience as an integration demonstration can inform the larger NSF EarthCube architecture and design effort. The challenges faced in this small-scale effort are informative to geosciences cyberinfrastructure more generally. Here we focus on the lessons learned that may inform other data facilities and integrative architecture projects. (The SeaView data collections will be presented at the Ocean Sciences 2018 meeting.) One example is the importance of shared semantics, with persistent identifiers, for key integration elements across the data sets (e.g. cruise, parameter, and project/program.) These must allow for revision through time and should have an agreed authority or process for resolving conflicts: aligning identifiers and correcting errors were time consuming and often required both deep domain knowledge and "back end" knowledge of the data facilities. Another example is the need for robust provenance, and tools that support automated or semi-automated data transform pipelines that capture provenance. Multiple copies and versions of data are now flowing into repositories, and onward to long-term archives such as NOAA NCEI and umbrella portals such as DataONE. Exact copies can be identified with hashes (for those that have the skills), but it can be painfully difficult to understand the processing

  4. Climate program "stone soup": Assessing climate change vulnerabilities in the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littell, J. S.; Poe, A.; van Pelt, T.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is already affecting the Bering Sea and Aleutian Island region of Alaska. Past and present marine research across a broad spectrum of disciplines is shedding light on what sectors of the ecosystem and the human dimension will be most impacted. In a grassroots approach to extend existing research efforts, leveraging recently completed downscaled climate projections for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region, we convened a team of 30 researchers-- with expertise ranging from anthropology to zooplankton to marine mammals-- to assess climate projections in the context of their expertise. This Aleutian-Bering Climate Vulnerability Assessment (ABCVA) began with researchers working in five teams to evaluate the vulnerabilities of key species and ecosystem services relative to projected changes in climate. Each team identified initial vulnerabilities for their focal species or services, and made recommendations for further research and information needs that would help managers and communities better understand the implications of the changing climate in this region. Those draft recommendations were shared during two focused, public sessions held within two hub communities for the Bering and Aleutian region: Unalaska and St. Paul. Qualitative insights about local concerns and observations relative to climate change were collected during these sessions, to be compared to the recommendations being made by the ABCVA team of researchers. Finally, we used a Structured Decision Making process to prioritize the recommendations of participating scientists, and integrate the insights shared during our community sessions. This work brought together residents, stakeholders, scientists, and natural resource managers to collaboratively identify priorities for addressing current and expected future impacts of climate change. Recommendations from this project will be incorporated into future research efforts of the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands Landscape Conservation

  5. Compilation of selected deep-sea biological data for the US subseabed disposal project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez, L.S.; Marietta, M.G.; Jackson, D.W.

    1987-03-01

    The US Subseabed Disposal Project (SDP) has compiled an extensive deep-sea biological data base to be used in calculating biological parameters of state and rate included in mathematical models of oceanographic transport of radionuclides. The data base is organized around a model deep-sea ecosystem which includes the following components: zooplankton, fish and other nekton, invertebrate benthic megafauna, benthic macrofauna, benthic meiofauna, heterotrophic microbiota, as well as suspended and sediment particulate organic carbon. Measurements of abundance and activity rates (e.g., respiration, production, sedimentation, etc.) reported in the international oceanographic literature are summarized in 23 tables. Included in these tables are the latitudinal position of the studies, as well as information describing sampling techniques and any special notes needed to better assess the data presented. This report has been prepared primarily as a resource document to be used in calculating parameter values for various modeling applications, and for preparing historical data reviews for other SDP reports. Depending on the intended use, these data will require further reduction and unit conversion

  6. Canadian snow and sea ice: assessment of snow, sea ice, and related climate processes in Canada's Earth system model and climate-prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushner, Paul J.; Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Merryfield, William; Ambadan, Jaison T.; Berg, Aaron; Bichet, Adéline; Brown, Ross; Derksen, Chris; Déry, Stephen J.; Dirkson, Arlan; Flato, Greg; Fletcher, Christopher G.; Fyfe, John C.; Gillett, Nathan; Haas, Christian; Howell, Stephen; Laliberté, Frédéric; McCusker, Kelly; Sigmond, Michael; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Tandon, Neil F.; Thackeray, Chad; Tremblay, Bruno; Zwiers, Francis W.

    2018-04-01

    The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state-of-the-art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. This study presents an assessment from the CanSISE Network of the ability of the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) to simulate and predict snow and sea ice from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the Canadian sector. To account for observational uncertainty, model structural uncertainty, and internal climate variability, the analysis uses multi-source observations, multiple Earth system models (ESMs) in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and large initial-condition ensembles of CanESM2 and other models. It is found that the ability of the CanESM2 simulation to capture snow-related climate parameters, such as cold-region surface temperature and precipitation, lies within the range of currently available international models. Accounting for the considerable disagreement among satellite-era observational datasets on the distribution of snow water equivalent, CanESM2 has too much springtime snow mass over Canada, reflecting a broader northern hemispheric positive bias. Biases in seasonal snow cover extent are generally less pronounced. CanESM2 also exhibits retreat of springtime snow generally greater than observational estimates, after accounting for observational uncertainty and internal variability. Sea ice is biased low in the Canadian Arctic, which makes it difficult to assess the realism of long-term sea ice trends there. The strengths and weaknesses of the modelling system need to be understood as a practical tradeoff: the Canadian models are relatively inexpensive computationally because of their moderate resolution, thus enabling their

  7. Sea level changes along the Indian coast: Observations and projections

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Kumar, K.R.; Fernandes, S.E.; Michael, G.S.; Patwardhan, S.K.

    : CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA CURRE NT SCIENCE, VOL. 90, NO. 3, 10 FEBRUARY 2006 *For correspondence. (e - mail: unni@darya.nio.org ) Sea level changes along the Indian coast: Observ a tions and projections A. S. Unnikrishnan 1, *, K. Rupa Kumar... with the occu r rence of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and associated storm surges in a future climate scenario. Projections for the future are needed for decision making by planners and policy makers. Future pr o jecti ons are made for different...

  8. Seeking an optimal algorithm for a new satellite-based Sea Ice Drift Climate Data Record : Motivations, plans and initial results from the ESA CCI Sea Ice project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lavergne, T.; Dybkjær, Gorm; Girard-Ardhuin, Fanny

    The Sea Ice Essential Climate Variable (ECV) as defined by GCOS pertains of both sea ice concentration, thickness, and drift. Now in its second phase, the ESA CCI Sea Ice project is conducting the necessary research efforts to address sea ice drift.Accurate estimates of sea ice drift direction an...... in the final product. This contribution reviews the motivation for the work, the plans for sea ice drift algorithms intercomparison and selection, and early results from our activity....

  9. Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ge Peng

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available An ice-free Arctic summer would have pronounced impacts on global climate, coastal habitats, national security, and the shipping industry. Rapid and accelerated Arctic sea ice loss has placed the reality of an ice-free Arctic summer even closer to the present day. Accurate projection of the first Arctic ice-free summer year is extremely important for business planning and climate change mitigation, but the projection can be affected by many factors. Using an inter-calibrated satellite sea ice product, this article examines the sensitivity of decadal trends of Arctic sea ice extent and statistical projections of the first occurrence of an ice-free Arctic summer. The projection based on the linear trend of the last 20 years of data places the first Arctic ice-free summer year at 2036, 12 years earlier compared to that of the trend over the last 30 years. The results from a sensitivity analysis of six commonly used curve-fitting models show that the projected timings of the first Arctic ice-free summer year tend to be earlier for exponential, Gompertz, quadratic, and linear with lag fittings, and later for linear and log fittings. Projections of the first Arctic ice-free summer year by all six statistical models appear to converge to the 2037 ± 6 timeframe, with a spread of 17 years, and the earliest first ice-free Arctic summer year at 2031.

  10. Potential for bias in 21st century semiempirical sea level projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jevrejeva, S.; Moore, J. C.; Grinsted, A.

    2012-01-01

    by satellite altimetry. Nonradiative forcing contributors, such as long-term adjustment of Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets since Last Glacial Maximum, abyssal ocean warming, and terrestrial water storage, may bias model calibration which, if corrected for, tend to reduce median sea level projections...

  11. THE COMPETITIVENESS ASSESSMENT OF THE POLISH AND GERMAN SEA PORTS AT THE SOUTHERN BALTIC SEA USING THE MULTICRITERIA METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bohdan Pac

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the results of the research conducted by the scientists of the Baltic Sea Logistics Research Centre in Gdansk Banking School. The aim of the research was to assess the competitiveness level of the indicated Polish and German sea ports at the Southern Baltic Sea on the base of their identified logistic capabilities. As the tool to make the assessment the Analitic Hierarchic Process (AHP method has been implemented. The sea port competitiveness has been directly referred to the total sea port logistic capabilities and presented as the number value. The research was focused on the logistics areas that is why it is difficult to take it as the interdisciplinary solution.

  12. Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Hoffman H. N.; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Zhou, Wen

    2018-01-01

    We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter (December-March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure (SLP) along 60°N, including the Urals-Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell, where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic. In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like pattern. Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage.

  13. Assessment of Students Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kofoed, Lise B.; Stachowicz, Marian S.

    2012-01-01

    The evaluation and assessment of engineering programmes is a big issue, and there exist many concepts and methods. This paper deals with the assessment methods which can be used when assessing the knowledge, skills and competences developed in projects using PBL (problem based and project organized...... learning) pedagogical approaches. The experience of assessing first year projects from the Medialogy education at Aalborg University and third year projects from the Electrical and Computer Engineering Department at University of Minnesota, Duluth are presented, and the different methods discussed....... The conclusion is that process as well as product has to be assessed in a way which evaluates all aspects of students’ learning outcomes....

  14. New perspectives on interdisciplinary earth science at the Dead Sea: The DESERVE project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kottmeier, Christoph; Agnon, Amotz; Al-Halbouni, Djamil; Alpert, Pinhas; Corsmeier, Ulrich; Dahm, Torsten; Eshel, Adam; Geyer, Stefan; Haas, Michael; Holohan, Eoghan; Kalthoff, Norbert; Kishcha, Pavel; Krawczyk, Charlotte; Lati, Joseph; Laronne, Jonathan B.; Lott, Friederike; Mallast, Ulf; Merz, Ralf; Metzger, Jutta; Mohsen, Ayman

    2016-01-01

    The Dead Sea region has faced substantial environmental challenges in recent decades, including water resource scarcity, ~ 1 m annual decreases in the water level, sinkhole development, ascending-brine freshwater pollution, and seismic disturbance risks. Natural processes are significantly affected by human interference as well as by climate change and tectonic developments over the long term. To get a deep understanding of processes and their interactions, innovative scientific approaches that integrate disciplinary research and education are required. The research project DESERVE (Helmholtz Virtual Institute Dead Sea Research Venue) addresses these challenges in an interdisciplinary approach that includes geophysics, hydrology, and meteorology. The project is implemented by a consortium of scientific institutions in neighboring countries of the Dead Sea (Israel, Jordan, Palestine Territories) and participating German Helmholtz Centres (KIT, GFZ, UFZ). A new monitoring network of meteorological, hydrological, and seismic/geodynamic stations has been established, and extensive field research and numerical simulations have been undertaken. For the first time, innovative measurement and modeling techniques have been applied to the extreme conditions of the Dead Sea and its surroundings. The preliminary results show the potential of these methods. First time ever performed eddy covariance measurements give insight into the governing factors of Dead Sea evaporation. High-resolution bathymetric investigations reveal a strong correlation between submarine springs and neo-tectonic patterns. Based on detailed studies of stratigraphy and borehole information, the extension of the subsurface drainage basin of the Dead Sea is now reliably estimated. Originality has been achieved in monitoring flash floods in an arid basin at its outlet and simultaneously in tributaries, supplemented by spatio-temporal rainfall data. Low-altitude, high resolution photogrammetry, allied to

  15. New perspectives on interdisciplinary earth science at the Dead Sea: The DESERVE project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kottmeier, Christoph, E-mail: Christoph.Kottmeier@kit.edu [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Hermann von Helmholtz Platz 1, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany); Agnon, Amotz [The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem (Israel); Al-Halbouni, Djamil [GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam (Germany); Alpert, Pinhas [Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv-Yafo (Israel); Corsmeier, Ulrich [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Hermann von Helmholtz Platz 1, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany); Dahm, Torsten [GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam (Germany); Eshel, Adam [Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv-Yafo (Israel); Geyer, Stefan [Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research GmbH — UFZ, Theodor-Lieser-Strasse 4, 06120 Halle (Germany); Haas, Michael; Holohan, Eoghan [GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam (Germany); Kalthoff, Norbert [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Hermann von Helmholtz Platz 1, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany); Kishcha, Pavel [Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv-Yafo (Israel); Krawczyk, Charlotte [Leibniz Institute for Applied Geophysics (LIAG), Stilleweg 2, 30655 Hannover (Germany); Lati, Joseph [Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv-Yafo (Israel); Laronne, Jonathan B. [Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Be' er Sheva (Israel); Lott, Friederike [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Hermann von Helmholtz Platz 1, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany); Mallast, Ulf; Merz, Ralf [Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research GmbH — UFZ, Theodor-Lieser-Strasse 4, 06120 Halle (Germany); Metzger, Jutta [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Hermann von Helmholtz Platz 1, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany); Mohsen, Ayman [An-Najah National University, Nablus, Palestine (Country Unknown); and others

    2016-02-15

    The Dead Sea region has faced substantial environmental challenges in recent decades, including water resource scarcity, ~ 1 m annual decreases in the water level, sinkhole development, ascending-brine freshwater pollution, and seismic disturbance risks. Natural processes are significantly affected by human interference as well as by climate change and tectonic developments over the long term. To get a deep understanding of processes and their interactions, innovative scientific approaches that integrate disciplinary research and education are required. The research project DESERVE (Helmholtz Virtual Institute Dead Sea Research Venue) addresses these challenges in an interdisciplinary approach that includes geophysics, hydrology, and meteorology. The project is implemented by a consortium of scientific institutions in neighboring countries of the Dead Sea (Israel, Jordan, Palestine Territories) and participating German Helmholtz Centres (KIT, GFZ, UFZ). A new monitoring network of meteorological, hydrological, and seismic/geodynamic stations has been established, and extensive field research and numerical simulations have been undertaken. For the first time, innovative measurement and modeling techniques have been applied to the extreme conditions of the Dead Sea and its surroundings. The preliminary results show the potential of these methods. First time ever performed eddy covariance measurements give insight into the governing factors of Dead Sea evaporation. High-resolution bathymetric investigations reveal a strong correlation between submarine springs and neo-tectonic patterns. Based on detailed studies of stratigraphy and borehole information, the extension of the subsurface drainage basin of the Dead Sea is now reliably estimated. Originality has been achieved in monitoring flash floods in an arid basin at its outlet and simultaneously in tributaries, supplemented by spatio-temporal rainfall data. Low-altitude, high resolution photogrammetry, allied to

  16. Environmental assessment methodologies for sea dumping of radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    This document, which describes the content of an environmental assessment report, will assist national authorities to meet their obligations under the London Dumping Convention (LDC, 1972) by initiating those steps which are to be undertaken to ensure that ''the procedure to be followed and the nature of such reports shall be agreed by the parties in consultation'' (Article VI. 4). In the context of sea disposal of radioactive wastes, environmental assessments are taken to mean those evaluations which are undertaken to assist in the decision-making processes used by national authorities to determine: 1) How the option of sea disposal compares environmentally, technically, socially and economically with other disposal options (this constitutes the comparison with land-based alternatives); and 2) Whether the impact of a proposed sea disposal option is acceptable (this requires a detailed evaluation of the proposed operation including site selection, quantities and types of waste to be dumped, operational requirements and calculation of radiological and other risks). The term ''environmental assessment'' in these respects is deemed to include both the evaluation of the impact of sea dumping and the document that describes this evaluation

  17. Collaborations for Arctic Sea Ice Information and Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield Guy, L.; Wiggins, H. V.; Turner-Bogren, E. J.; Rich, R. H.

    2017-12-01

    The dramatic and rapid changes in Arctic sea ice require collaboration across boundaries, including between disciplines, sectors, institutions, and between scientists and decision-makers. This poster will highlight several projects that provide knowledge to advance the development and use of sea ice knowledge. Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO: https://www.arcus.org/search-program/siwo) - SIWO is a resource for Alaskan Native subsistence hunters and other interested stakeholders. SIWO provides weekly reports, during April-June, of sea ice conditions relevant to walrus in the northern Bering and southern Chukchi seas. Collaboration among scientists, Alaskan Native sea-ice experts, and the Eskimo Walrus Commission is fundamental to this project's success. Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN: https://www.arcus.org/sipn) - A collaborative, multi-agency-funded project focused on seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions. The goals of SIPN include: coordinate and evaluate Arctic sea ice predictions; integrate, assess, and guide observations; synthesize predictions and observations; and disseminate predictions and engage key stakeholders. The Sea Ice Outlook—a key activity of SIPN—is an open process to share and synthesize predictions of the September minimum Arctic sea ice extent and other variables. Other SIPN activities include workshops, webinars, and communications across the network. Directory of Sea Ice Experts (https://www.arcus.org/researchers) - ARCUS has undertaken a pilot project to develop a web-based directory of sea ice experts across institutions, countries, and sectors. The goal of the project is to catalyze networking between individual investigators, institutions, funding agencies, and other stakeholders interested in Arctic sea ice. Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH: https://www.arcus.org/search-program) - SEARCH is a collaborative program that advances research, synthesizes research findings, and broadly communicates the results to support

  18. Environmental assessment of rosetta area,mediterranean sea coast - egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aly, A.M.A.

    2013-01-01

    This study is titled (Environmental Assessment of Rosetta Area,Mediterranean Sea Coast, Egypt). The environmental assessment can be defined here as the process of assessing the potential impacts (positive or negative) of the presence of certain influential on a particular ecosystem. Samples were collected from Abu Khashaba beach area, Rosetta on the Mediterranean Sea coast. Samples of the beach sediments, sea-water and the scattered shells in this coastal region were collected. Sediments in this region are characterized by its large content of heavy metals, which added to these sediments its black color. It is known that these black sands occurred along the Mediterranean Sea coast from Alexandria to Rafah. The advantage of these black sand deposits is their contents from multiple economic metals which have important industrial uses, such as magnetite, ilmenite, rutile, monazite, zircon, garnet and other important minerals. Ten sampling profiles spaced in-between by about 600 m distance, and extending into the land from the shoreline for about 50 m or less. Along each profile, three sediment samples were collected; the first sample from the surface at the beach line, the second sample from the end of the foreshore area at a depth of about 50 cm and the third sample was taken from the backshore area at a depth of about 1 m. Extending from each profile into the sea, marine-water samples were taken at a distance of about 3 m from the beach line, and from a depth of about 1 m below the sea surface. The shells samples were collected from the scattered shells on the beach. By examination of these samples a 15 different shells types were defined.

  19. Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goelzer, H; Huybrechts, P; Raper, S C B; Loutre, M-F; Goosse, H; Fichefet, T

    2012-01-01

    Sea-level is expected to rise for a long time to come, even after stabilization of human-induced climatic warming. Here we use simulations with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to project sea-level changes over the third millennium forced with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that stabilize by either 2000 or 2100 AD. The model includes 3D thermomechanical models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets coupled to an atmosphere and an ocean model, a global glacier melt algorithm to account for the response of mountain glaciers and ice caps, and a procedure for assessing oceanic thermal expansion from oceanic heat uptake. Four climate change scenarios are considered to determine sea-level commitments. These assume a 21st century increase in greenhouse gases according to SRES scenarios B1, A1B and A2 with a stabilization of the atmospheric composition after the year 2100. One additional scenario assumes 1000 years of constant atmospheric composition from the year 2000 onwards. For our preferred model version, we find an already committed total sea-level rise of 1.1 m by 3000 AD. In experiments with greenhouse gas concentration stabilization at 2100 AD, the total sea-level rise ranges between 2.1 m (B1), 4.1 m (A1B) and 6.8 m (A2). In all scenarios, more than half of this amount arises from the Greenland ice sheet, thermal expansion is the second largest contributor, and the contribution of glaciers and ice caps is small as it is limited by the available ice volume of maximally 25 cm of sea-level equivalent. Additionally, we analysed the sensitivity of the sea-level contributions from an ensemble of nine different model versions that cover a large range of climate sensitivity realized by model parameter variations of the atmosphere–ocean model. Selected temperature indices are found to be good predictors for sea-level contributions from the different components of land ice and oceanic thermal expansion after 1000 years. (letter)

  20. Environmental impact assessment of oilfield upgrades in Bohai Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ruihui; Xiong, Yanna; Li, Jiao; Li, Xianbo

    2018-02-01

    This paper designed 65 environmental monitoring sites to collect samples and analyze for better evaluating the environmental impact generated by cuttings, mud, produced water with oil and oil pollutions that produced during the upgrading in the Bohai Sea where the oil field 34-1 upgraded. Collecting samples include ocean water, marine life and sediments and test items involve PH, dissolved oxygen (DO), salinity, chemical oxygen demand (COD), phosphate, organic carbon, sulfide, inorganic nitrogen, petroleum, copper (Cu), lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), cadmium (Cd), total chromium (Cr), total mercury (Hg) and arsenic (As). Meanwhile sample sites collect and analyze the abundance and diversity of marine plants and elaborated the environmental impact caused by upgrading renovation project from the aspects of sea water, marine life and marine sediments. Through analysis and comparison we found that seawater quality conform the Ш seawater quality standards, the excessive rate of Cu is 10%, the average diversity index of marine life is 2.34 and evenness is 0.68. Influence range of marine sediments and pollutants of production is within 2.68km and basically has no serious impact in the surrounding sea area. It’s worth nothing that reconstruction project has the risk of oil spilling and protective measures must be prepared.

  1. Identification and development of waste management alternatives for Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desmond, Margaret

    2009-01-01

    The European Union Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Directive (2001/42/EC) requires the assessment of likely significant effects on the environment of implementing plans or programmes and reasonable alternatives. While SEA regulations and guidelines emphasize rigour and objectivity in the assessment of alternatives they have little to say on their actual identification. Therefore, criteria should be developed which would aid decision makers in the identification of alternatives appropriate to the tier of decision-making and which meet the objectives of SEA. A methodology is set out in this paper for identifying SEA alternatives for a proposed waste management plan/programme. Specifically, the methodology describes a set of alternatives identification criteria, which will meet the requirements and objectives of SEA and waste management legislation. The outputs from the methodology will help focus on the identification of more sustainable alternatives for waste management planning in Ireland

  2. Sea Extremes: Integrated impact assessment in coastal climate adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Knudsen, Per; Broge, Niels

    2016-01-01

    protection measures, topography, and infrastructure to provide a more complete picture of the water-related impact from climate change at an exposed coastal location. Results show that future sea extremes evaluated from extreme value statistics may, indeed, have a large impact. The integrated effects from......We investigate effects of sea level rise and a change in precipitation pattern on coastal flooding hazards. Historic and present in situ and satellite data of water and groundwater levels, precipitation, vertical ground motion, geology,and geotechnical soil properties are combined with flood...... research advances and projections for the future are updated....

  3. Understanding the allure of big infrastructure: Jakarta’s Great Garuda Sea Wall Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma Colven

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In response to severe flooding in Jakarta, a consortium of Dutch firms in collaboration with the Indonesian government has designed the 'Great Garuda Sea Wall' project. The master plan proposes to construct a sea wall to enclose Jakarta Bay. A new waterfront city will be built on over 1000 hectares (ha of reclaimed land in the shape of the Garuda, Indonesia’s national symbol. By redeveloping North Jakarta, the project promises to realise the world-class city aspirations of Indonesia’s political elites. Heavily reliant on hydrological engineering, hard infrastructure and private capital, the project has been presented by proponents as the optimum way to protect the city from flooding. The project retains its allure among political elites despite not directly addressing land subsidence, understood to be a primary cause of flooding. I demonstrate how this project is driven by a techno-political network that brings together political and economic interests, world-class city discourses, engineering expertise, colonial histories, and postcolonial relations between Jakarta and the Netherlands. Due in part to this network, big infrastructure has long constituted the preferred state response to flooding in Jakarta. I thus make a case for provincialising narratives that claim we are witnessing a return to big infrastructure in water management.

  4. Environmental impact assessment of projects in the People's Republic of China: new law, old problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yan; Morgan, Richard K.; Cashmore, Mat

    2003-01-01

    After more than 20 years of experience with environmental impact assessment (EIA), the government of the People's Republic of China is set to introduce a new EIA Law, in September 2003, in which strategic environmental assessment (SEA) complements the current project-oriented EIA process. In general, the new law does not attempt to modify the existing EIA system in any radical ways, suggesting that the government consider current practices satisfactory. In order to assess the likely prospects of the new EIA Law for project-level EIA, this paper presents an evaluation of the current EIA process in China, first, establishing the historical context of the current process and, second, considering the main issues and concerns relating to the institutional and procedural arrangements, and practical implementation of the process. The main problems highlighted are as follows: the narrow historic focus on pollution of air, water and soil, at the expense of the consideration of wider environmental, social and health impacts; environmental protection agencies being funded by development-oriented local government administrations; the lack of consideration of alternatives in EIA processes; and the lack of effective public participation. More specific procedural issues are also discussed. On the basis of this analysis, we make recommendations for improving the effectiveness of EIA at the project level. The introduction of SEA in the new law marks a real step forward for EIA in China, although it appears to exclude central government policies, and there are improved provisions for public participation. However, the prospects for EIA in China will remain mixed as long as the new law leaves project-level EIA largely unchanged

  5. Wave modelling to assess the storm conditions in the Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusu, Liliana; Raileanu, Alina

    2014-05-01

    accidents with very serious economic and environmental consequences. The work is still ongoing and an important direction considered is to use the wave modelling system for performing long term projections concerning the dynamics of the wave climate in the Black Sea. This is motivated also by the fact that, according to various evaluations, the variability of the environmental parameters in the Black Sea is expected to be in medium to long term higher than in the neighboring sea environments. Finally, as a further step, some data assimilation methods are also being considered for improving the wave predictions in the basin of the Black Sea, especially those related to the storm conditions when sometimes the model predictions may become inaccurate. Keywords: Black Sea, hindcast, storm conditions, SWAN, wave climate. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: This work was supported by a grant of the Romanian Ministry of National Education, CNCS - UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-ID-PCE-2012-4-0089 (project DAMWAVE).

  6. Determination of wave energy potential of black sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bingölbali, Bilal; Akpınar, Adem; van Vledder, G.P.; Lynett, P.

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to assess wave energy potential and its long-term spatial and temporal characteristics in the Black Sea within the TUBITAK research project (Akpınar et al., 2015). With this purpose, a wave model (SWAN model version 41.01 driven by the CFSR winds) over the entire Black Sea was

  7. Coupling analysis on the soft ground settlement laws in Qinshan nuclear power phase I sea wall project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun Feng; Pan Rong; Zhu Xiuyun; Zhang Dingli

    2011-01-01

    Qinshan Nuclear Power Phase I sea wall project is a barrier engineering in defending the design basis flooding, which is of importance to the safety of NPP. The geological condition has the feature of high compressibility and low penetration, such as the soft ground of 1 + 450 section of Qinshan Nuclear Power Phase I sea wall. Based on parameters acquired from the site experiment, 3-D finite difference analysis is put forward to study the feature of consolidation settlement laws, which can embody the fluid-solid coupling interaction. The conclusions of numerical analysis agree well with the in-site measured data, and it, can contribute to the design and construction of raising sea wall project. (authors)

  8. Remote sensing of sea ice: advances during the DAMOCLES project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Heygster

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In the Arctic, global warming is particularly pronounced so that we need to monitor its development continuously. On the other hand, the vast and hostile conditions make in situ observation difficult, so that available satellite observations should be exploited in the best possible way to extract geophysical information. Here, we give a résumé of the sea ice remote sensing efforts of the European Union's (EU project DAMOCLES (Developing Arctic Modeling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental Studies. In order to better understand the seasonal variation of the microwave emission of sea ice observed from space, the monthly variations of the microwave emissivity of first-year and multi-year sea ice have been derived for the frequencies of the microwave imagers like AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS and sounding frequencies of AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit, and have been used to develop an optimal estimation method to retrieve sea ice and atmospheric parameters simultaneously. In addition, a sea ice microwave emissivity model has been used together with a thermodynamic model to establish relations between the emissivities from 6 GHz to 50 GHz. At the latter frequency, the emissivity is needed for assimilation into atmospheric circulation models, but is more difficult to observe directly. The size of the snow grains on top of the sea ice influences both its albedo and the microwave emission. A method to determine the effective size of the snow grains from observations in the visible range (MODIS is developed and demonstrated in an application on the Ross ice shelf. The bidirectional reflectivity distribution function (BRDF of snow, which is an essential input parameter to the retrieval, has been measured in situ on Svalbard during the DAMOCLES campaign, and a BRDF model assuming aspherical particles is developed. Sea ice drift and deformation is derived from satellite observations with the scatterometer

  9. Social assessment of energy projects. How?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munksgaard, J.; Larsen, A.

    1997-08-01

    This is the final report of the project: Social assessment of Energy Projects. The aim of the project is to improve the basis of working out social assessments of energy projects in practice. The report raises the question: How should social assessments of energy projects be made? A social assessment is using a national perspective, i.e. it accounts the effects of the project for individuals and institutions in Denmark. The assessment is based on economics which means that effects generated by the project are valuated in DKK - as far as possible. The aim of the social assessment is to support a more effective use of the resources in Denmark. A social assessment should include an analysis of the distributional effects. The analysis can be made as an account including a social cash flow analysis. The distribution analysis will illustrate the gains and losses for the different groups of individuals affected carrying out the project. In that way the analysis will show who potentially will support the project and who will be against the project. (EG) EFP-92. 37 refs

  10. Communicating uncertainties in assessments of future sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wikman-Svahn, P.

    2013-12-01

    How uncertainty should be managed and communicated in policy-relevant scientific assessments is directly connected to the role of science and the responsibility of scientists. These fundamentally philosophical issues influence how scientific assessments are made and how scientific findings are communicated to policymakers. It is therefore of high importance to discuss implicit assumptions and value judgments that are made in policy-relevant scientific assessments. The present paper examines these issues for the case of scientific assessments of future sea level rise. The magnitude of future sea level rise is very uncertain, mainly due to poor scientific understanding of all physical mechanisms affecting the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, which together hold enough land-based ice to raise sea levels more than 60 meters if completely melted. There has been much confusion from policymakers on how different assessments of future sea levels should be interpreted. Much of this confusion is probably due to how uncertainties are characterized and communicated in these assessments. The present paper draws on the recent philosophical debate on the so-called "value-free ideal of science" - the view that science should not be based on social and ethical values. Issues related to how uncertainty is handled in scientific assessments are central to this debate. This literature has much focused on how uncertainty in data, parameters or models implies that choices have to be made, which can have social consequences. However, less emphasis has been on how uncertainty is characterized when communicating the findings of a study, which is the focus of the present paper. The paper argues that there is a tension between on the one hand the value-free ideal of science and on the other hand usefulness for practical applications in society. This means that even if the value-free ideal could be upheld in theory, by carefully constructing and hedging statements characterizing

  11. Development of a Geographic Information System (GIS) tool for the preliminary assessment of the effects of predicted sea level and tidal change on transportation infrastructure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    In this project, researchers from the University of Florida developed a sketch planning tool that can be used to conduct statewide and regional assessments of transportation facilities potentially vulnerable to sea level change trends. Possible futur...

  12. Salton Sea Ecosystem Monitoring Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, A. Keith; Ricca, Mark A.; Meckstroth, Anne; Spring, Sarah E.

    2009-01-01

    The Salton Sea is critically important for wintering and breeding waterbirds, but faces an uncertain future due to water delivery reductions imposed by the Interstate and Federal Quantification Settlement Agreement of 2003. The current preferred alternative for wetland restoration at the Salton Sea is saline habitat impoundments created to mitigate the anticipated loss of wetland habitat. In 2006, a 50-hectare experimental complex that consisted of four inter-connected, shallow water saline habitat ponds (SHP) was constructed at the southeastern shoreline of the Salton Sea and flooded with blended waters from the Alamo River and Salton Sea. The present study evaluated ecological risks and benefits of the SHP concept prior to widespread restoration actions. This study was designed to evaluate (1) baseline chemical, nutrient, and contaminant measures from physical and biological constituents, (2) aquatic invertebrate community structure and colonization patterns, and (3) productivity of and contaminant risks to nesting waterbirds at the SHP. These factors were evaluated and compared with those of nearby waterbird habitat, that is, reference sites.

  13. Interdisciplinary assessment of sea-level rise and climate change impacts on the lower Nile delta, Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sušnik, Janez; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Lydia S; Baumert, Niklas; Kloos, Julia; Renaud, Fabrice G; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Mabrouk, Badr; Savić, Dragan A; Kapelan, Zoran; Ludwig, Ralf; Fischer, Georg; Roson, Roberto; Zografos, Christos

    2015-01-15

    CLImate-induced changes on WAter and SECurity (CLIWASEC) was a cluster of three complementary EC-FP7 projects assessing climate-change impacts throughout the Mediterranean on: hydrological cycles (CLIMB - CLimate-Induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean Basins); water security (WASSERMed - Water Availability and Security in Southern EuRope and the Mediterranean) and human security connected with possible hydro-climatic conflicts (CLICO - CLImate change hydro-COnflicts and human security). The Nile delta case study was common between the projects. CLIWASEC created an integrated forum for modelling and monitoring to understand potential impacts across sectors. This paper summarises key results from an integrated assessment of potential challenges to water-related security issues, focusing on expected sea-level rise impacts by the middle of the century. We use this common focus to illustrate the added value of project clustering. CLIWASEC pursued multidisciplinary research by adopting a single research objective: sea-level rise related water security threats, resulting in a more holistic view of problems and potential solutions. In fragmenting research, policy-makers can fail to understand how multiple issues can materialize from one driver. By combining efforts, an integrated assessment of water security threats in the lower Nile is formulated, offering policy-makers a clearer picture of inter-related issues to society and environment. The main issues identified by each project (land subsidence, saline intrusion - CLIMB; water supply overexploitation, land loss - WASSERMed; employment and housing security - CLICO), are in fact related. Water overexploitation is exacerbating land subsidence and saline intrusion, impacting on employment and placing additional pressure on remaining agricultural land and the underdeveloped housing market. All these have wider implications for regional development. This richer understanding could be critical in making better

  14. Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

    2016-01-01

    Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections. PMID:26903648

  15. Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

    2016-03-08

    Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28-56 cm, 37-77 cm, and 57-131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The "constrained extrapolation" approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.

  16. Winter Arctic sea ice growth: current variability and projections for the coming decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petty, A.; Boisvert, L.; Webster, M.; Holland, M. M.; Bailey, D. A.; Kurtz, N. T.; Markus, T.

    2017-12-01

    Arctic sea ice increases in both extent and thickness during the cold winter months ( October to May). Winter sea ice growth is an important factor controlling ocean ventilation and winter water/deep water formation, as well as determining the state and vulnerability of the sea ice pack before the melt season begins. Key questions for the Arctic community thus include: (i) what is the current magnitude and variability of winter Arctic sea ice growth and (ii) how might this change in a warming Arctic climate? To address (i), our current best guess of pan-Arctic sea ice thickness, and thus volume, comes from satellite altimetry observations, e.g. from ESA's CryoSat-2 satellite. A significant source of uncertainty in these data come from poor knowledge of the overlying snow depth. Here we present new estimates of winter sea ice thickness from CryoSat-2 using snow depths from a simple snow model forced by reanalyses and satellite-derived ice drift estimates, combined with snow depth estimates from NASA's Operation IceBridge. To address (ii), we use data from the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble Project, to explore sea ice volume and growth variability, and how this variability might change over the coming decades. We compare and contrast the model simulations to observations and the PIOMAS ice-ocean model (over recent years/decades). The combination of model and observational analysis provide novel insight into Arctic sea ice volume variability.

  17. Strategic environmental assessment quality assurance: evaluating and improving the consistency of judgments in assessment panels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noble, Bram F.

    2004-01-01

    Assessment panels and expert judgment are playing increasing roles in the practice of strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Thus, the quality of an SEA decision rests considerably on the quality of the judgments of the assessment panel. However, there exists very little guidance in the SEA literature for practitioners concerning the treatment and integration of expert judgment into SEA decision-making processes. Subsequently, the performance of SEAs based on expert judgment is often less than satisfactory, and quality improvements are required in the SEA process. Based on the lessons learned from strategic- and project-level impact assessment practices, this paper outlines a number of principles concerning the use of assessment panels in SEA decision-making, and attempts to provide some guidance for SEA practitioners in this regard. Particular attention is given to the notion and value of consistency in assessment panel judgments

  18. Deep-sea benthic community and environmental impact assessment at the Atlantic Frontier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gage, John D.

    2001-05-01

    the oil industry-funded Atlantic Margin Environmental Study cruises in 1996 and 1998. A predominantly depth-related pattern in variability applies here as found elsewhere in the deep ocean, and just sufficient knowledge-based predictive power exists to make comprehensive, high-resolution grid surveys unnecessary for the purpose of broad-scale environmental assessment. But new, small-scale site surveys remain necessary because of local-scale variability. Site survey should be undertaken in the context of existing knowledge of the deep sea in the UK area of the Atlantic Frontier and beyond, and can itself usefully be structured as tests of a projection from the regional scale to reduce sampling effort. It is to the benefit of all stakeholders that environmental assessment aspires to the highest scientific standards and contributes meaningfully to context knowledge. By doing so it will reduce uncertainties in future impact assessments and hence contribute usefully to environmental risk management.

  19. CNA Maritime Asia Project. Workshop One: The Yellow and East China Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    in 2011.8 In October, South Korean Coast Guard forces used tear gas and rubber bullets to subdue Chinese fishermen wielding clubs and shovels.9 An...tation Disputes in the East China Sea,” NBR Special Report No.35 (December 2011): 135 and 141. 39 CNA Maritime Asia Project Workshop One: The Yellow

  20. Assessment of microphysical and chemical factors of aerosols over seas of the Russian Artic Eastern Section

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golobokova, Liudmila; Polkin, Victor

    2014-05-01

    aerosols while the natural ones are of lower severity due to low temperatures endemic for the Arctic Ocean areas. For doing the assessment of the air mass components chemical formulation samples of water soluble fraction of the atmospheric aerosol underwent chemical analysis. Sum of main ions within the aerosol composition varied from 0.23 to 16.2 mkg/m3. Minimum ion concentrations are defined in the aerosol sampled over the Chukotka sea surface at still. Chemical composition of the Beringov and Chukotka sea aerosol was dominated by impurities of sea origin coming from the ocean with air mass. Ion sum increased concentrations were observed in the Pevek area (Eastern Siberia Sea). Aerosol chemical composition building was impacted by air mass coming from the shore. Maximum concentrations of the bespoken components are seen in the aerosol sampled during stormy weather. Increase of wind made it for raising into the air of the sea origin particles. Ingestion of sprays onto the filter was eliminated by covering the sample catcher with a special protective hood. This completed survey is indicative of favourable state of atmosphere in the arctic resource of the Russian Arctic Eastern Section during Summer-Autumn season of 2013. The job is done under financial support of project. 23 Programs of fundamental research of the RAS Presidium, Partnership Integration Project, SB RAS. 25.

  1. Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. L. Edwards

    2014-01-01

    Régional: Fettweis, 2007 climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB–elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9% at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0% at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs for sea level contributions are larger than the "no feedback" case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

  2. Improved sea level record over the satellite altimetry era (1993-2010) from the Climate Change Initiative project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ablain, M.; Cazenave, A.; Larnicol, G.

    2015-01-01

    .6 and 1-2 mm year(-1)). Similarly, interannual global mean sea level variations (currently uncertain to 2-3 mm) need to be monitored with better accuracy. In this paper, we present various data improvements achieved within the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) project on "Sea...

  3. Evaluation and selection of test methods for assessment of contaminated sediments in the Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehtonen, Kari; Ahvo, Aino; Berezina, Nadya

    The purpose of the CONTEST project (2014-15) is to test, develop, evaluate and select suitable biological methods to be applied in the quantitative and qualitative assessment of toxicity of anthropogenically contaminated sediments in the Baltic Sea marine region. Here is presented results from...... showed large variability in the sensitivity of the different biotests. Most of the tests applied showed concentration-dependent effects on the test organisms. New experiments will be carried out in 2015. The CONTEST project is funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers and the Finnish Ministry...... a set of pilot experiments, which were performed by the participating laboratories. Chemical analysis of the contaminated harbour sediment chosen as the test matrix confirmed the presence of high concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, organotins and trace metals, and the sediment...

  4. Towards SEA for the developing nations of Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briffett, Clive; Obbard, Jeffrey Philip; Mackee, Jamie

    2003-01-01

    In the developing and transitional countries of Asia, environmental impact assessment (EIA) has been widely practiced as a planning tool that identifies the potential impacts associated with developments and determines their level of significance and the need for mitigating measures. Not withstanding its extensive use in many Asian countries, certain limitations are now being increasingly recognised with regard to achieving sustainable development within the planning process. It is also noted that the natural environment in Asia has continued to be severely degraded despite the adoption of EIA. This research project was undertaken at the National University of Singapore to review the status on the implementation of EIA procedures and to investigate the status and potential of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in Asia. The research project generally investigated the existing physical attributes of six countries including Hong Kong and Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam and discussed their prevailing environmental conditions. It more specifically reviewed policymaking and environmental planning, environmental legislation and the practice and procedures of environmental impact assessment. It also evaluated environmental assessment education and training activities. In some cases such as Hong Kong, an opportunity to analyse actual SEA practice was included. In other cases, the potential for possible take up of formal SEA was assessed. A comparative review assesses the degree to which EIA and SEA procedures have been utilized, considers how the use of SEA could overcome the deficiencies of the EIA project-based system and includes aspects of meeting sustainability criteria. Results show that the use and application of EIA is relatively strong across all countries with the possible exception of Singapore which relies more heavily on its planning and control system to address potential environmental impacts arising from development

  5. Mediterranean, our sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markaki, Foteini

    2017-04-01

    My school (1o EPAL Ymittos -Athens, Greece) is a technical school of secondary education and throughout this school year being drafted a program of environmental education. The main theme is the Mediterranean Sea, the biggest closed sea extending between three continents. Topics studied: 1. Biodiversity and the risks threat. 2. The geophysics that characterize (earthquakes, volcanoes explosions, etc). 3. The Mediterranean Sea as environment anthropogenesis, a mosaic of other cultures and even place current notions of social phenomena (refugees). Pedagogical Objectives: Cognitive/Enviromental: 1. To investigate and understand the biodiversity of the Mediterranean Sea and the risks to threaten and phenomena that characterize. 2. To understand the position of the Mediterranean Sea in the land and the role of the historical, cultural and social human environment. 3. To come in contact with texts literary, social, articles on the Mediterranean. Psychomotor: 1. To work together and collect information for the Mediterranean Sea. 2. Experiential approach to the natural environment. 3. Develop critical thinking. 4. Undertake responsibilities for the presentation of the program. Emotional: 1. To feel joy from participation in the program. 2. Being sensitized and configure attitudes and actions of respect towards the environment. Methodology implementation: Teamwork. Interdisciplinary - holistic to dissemination of program recordings to courses curriculum. Study in the field. Gathering information from newspapers, magazines, internet, maps, and photographs. Experiential method- Project. Assessment methods and self-assessment. Fields of courses: Greek language- History- Biology- Chemistry- Technology Dissemination of results: Make a page of social media (facebook), a blog, enhancing environmental awareness via video, make an electronic poster.

  6. High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Christopher R; Bayard, Trina S; Gjerdrum, Carina; Hill, Jason M; Meiman, Susan; Elphick, Chris S

    2017-05-01

    Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. SeaRAM: an evaluation of the safety of RAM transport by sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McConnell, P.; Sorenson, K.B.; Carter, M.H.; Keane, M.P.; Keith, V.F.; Heid, R.J.

    1995-01-01

    SeaRAM is a multi-year Department of Energy (DOE) project designed to validate the safety of shipping radioactive materials (RAM) by sea. The project has an ultimate goal of developing and demonstrating analytic tools for performing comprehensive analyses to evaluate the risks to humans and the environment due to sea transport of plutonium, vitrified high-level waste (VHLW), and spent fuel associated with reprocessing and research reactors. To achieve this end, evaluations of maritime databases and structural an thermal analyses of particular severe collision and fire accidents have been and will continue to be conducted. Program management for SeaRAM is based at the DOE's Office of Environmental Restoration. Technical activities for the project are being conducted at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Several private organizations are also involved in providing technical support, notably Engineering Computer Optecnomics, Inc. (ECO). The technical work performed for SeaRAM also supports DOE participation in an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Cooperative Research Program (CRP) entitled Accident Severity at Sea During Transport of Radioactive Material. This paper discusses activities performed during the first year of the project

  8. A project for a new national opera house in the capital of Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Algreen-Ussing, Gregers; Wedebrunn, Ola

    2004-01-01

    Urban projects, plans and other programmes falls under present Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) directive as well as the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) directive. There is need to adopt more comprehensive understanding of urban built heritage, one that would enable taking into cons......Urban projects, plans and other programmes falls under present Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) directive as well as the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) directive. There is need to adopt more comprehensive understanding of urban built heritage, one that would enable taking...

  9. New perspectives on interdisciplinary earth science at the Dead Sea: The DESERVE project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kottmeier, Christoph; Agnon, Amotz; Al-Halbouni, Djamil; Alpert, Pinhas; Corsmeier, Ulrich; Dahm, Torsten; Eshel, Adam; Geyer, Stefan; Haas, Michael; Holohan, Eoghan; Kalthoff, Norbert; Kishcha, Pavel; Krawczyk, Charlotte; Lati, Joseph; Laronne, Jonathan B; Lott, Friederike; Mallast, Ulf; Merz, Ralf; Metzger, Jutta; Mohsen, Ayman; Morin, Efrat; Nied, Manuela; Rödiger, Tino; Salameh, Elias; Sawarieh, Ali; Shannak, Benbella; Siebert, Christian; Weber, Michael

    2016-02-15

    The Dead Sea region has faced substantial environmental challenges in recent decades, including water resource scarcity, ~1m annual decreases in the water level, sinkhole development, ascending-brine freshwater pollution, and seismic disturbance risks. Natural processes are significantly affected by human interference as well as by climate change and tectonic developments over the long term. To get a deep understanding of processes and their interactions, innovative scientific approaches that integrate disciplinary research and education are required. The research project DESERVE (Helmholtz Virtual Institute Dead Sea Research Venue) addresses these challenges in an interdisciplinary approach that includes geophysics, hydrology, and meteorology. The project is implemented by a consortium of scientific institutions in neighboring countries of the Dead Sea (Israel, Jordan, Palestine Territories) and participating German Helmholtz Centres (KIT, GFZ, UFZ). A new monitoring network of meteorological, hydrological, and seismic/geodynamic stations has been established, and extensive field research and numerical simulations have been undertaken. For the first time, innovative measurement and modeling techniques have been applied to the extreme conditions of the Dead Sea and its surroundings. The preliminary results show the potential of these methods. First time ever performed eddy covariance measurements give insight into the governing factors of Dead Sea evaporation. High-resolution bathymetric investigations reveal a strong correlation between submarine springs and neo-tectonic patterns. Based on detailed studies of stratigraphy and borehole information, the extension of the subsurface drainage basin of the Dead Sea is now reliably estimated. Originality has been achieved in monitoring flash floods in an arid basin at its outlet and simultaneously in tributaries, supplemented by spatio-temporal rainfall data. Low-altitude, high resolution photogrammetry, allied to

  10. Management of uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts - Applications to sea-level rise and to CO2 storage operations risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manceau, Jean-Charles; Loschetter, Annick; Rohmer, Jérémy; Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Lary Louis, de; Guénan Thomas, Le; Ken, Hnottavange-Telleen

    2017-04-01

    -Shafer theory has been used to represent and aggregate these pieces of information. The results of different aggregation rules as well as those of a classical probabilistic approach are compared with the purpose of highlighting the elements each of them could provide to the decision-maker (Manceau et al., 2016). The second example focuses on projections of future sea-level rise. Based on IPCC's constraints on the projection quantiles, and on the scientific community consensus level on the physical limits to future sea-level rise, a possibility distribution of the projections by 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario has been established. This possibility distribution has been confronted with a set of previously published probabilistic sea-level projections, with a focus on their ability to explore high ranges of sea-level rise (Le Cozannet et al., 2016). These two examples are complementary in the sense that they allow to address various aspects of the problem (e.g. representation of different types of information, conflict among experts, sources dependence). Moreover, we believe that the issues faced during these two experiences can be generalized to many risks/hazards assessment situations. References Manceau, JC., Loschetter, A., Rohmer, J., de Lary, L., Le Guénan, T., Hnottavange-Telleen, K. (2016). Dealing with uncertainty on parameters elicited from a pool of experts for CCS risk assessment. Congrès λμ 20 (St-Malo, France). Le Cozannet G., Manceau JC., Rohmer, J. (2016). Bounding probabilistic sea-level rise projections within the framework of the possibility theory. Accepted in Environmental Research Letters.

  11. Assessment of contaminant concentrations in sediments, fish and mussels sampled from the North Atlantic and European regional seas within the ICON project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinson, Craig D.; Webster, Lynda; Martínez-Gómez, Concepción; Burgeot, Thierry; Gubbins, Matthew J.; Thain, John E.; Vethaak, A. Dick; McIntosh, Alistair D.; Hylland, Ketil

    Understanding the status of contaminants in the marine environment is a requirement of European Union Directives and the Regional Seas Conventions, so that measures to reduce pollution can be identified and their efficacy assessed. The international ICON workshop (Hylland et al., in this issue) was

  12. Development of new geoinformation methods for modelling and prediction of sea level change over different timescales - overview of the project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niedzielski, T.; Włosińska, M.; Miziński, B.; Hewelt, M.; Migoń, P.; Kosek, W.; Priede, I. G.

    2012-04-01

    The poster aims to provide a broad scientific audience with a general overview of a project on sea level change modelling and prediction that has just commenced at the University of Wrocław, Poland. The initiative that the project fits, called the Homing Plus programme, is organised by the Foundation for Polish Science and financially supported by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund and the Innovative Economy Programme. There are two key research objectives of the project that complement each other. First, emphasis is put on modern satellite altimetric gridded time series from the Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data (AVISO) repository. Daily sea level anomaly maps, access to which in near-real time is courtesy of AVISO, are being steadily downloaded every day to our local server in Wroclaw, Poland. These data will be processed within a general framework of modelling and prediction of sea level change in short, medium and long term. Secondly, sea level change over geological time is scrutinised in order to cover very long time scales that go far beyond a history of altimetric and tide-gauge measurements. The aforementioned approaches comprise a few tasks that aim to solve the following detailed problems. Within the first one, our objective is to seek spatio-temporal dependencies in the gridded sea level anomaly time series. Subsequently, predictions that make use of such cross-correlations shall be derived, and near-real time service for automatic update with validation will be implemented. Concurrently, (i.e. apart from spatio-temporal dependencies and their use in the process of forecasting variable sea level topography), threshold models shall be utilised for predicting the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal that is normally present in sea level anomaly time series of the equatorial Pacific. Within the second approach, however, the entirely different methods are proposed. Links between

  13. Downscaling of sea level and fluxes in the Malacca and Singapore Straits using A2 scenario projections of AR4 GCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tkalich, Pavel; Koshebutsky, Volodymyr; Maderich, Vladimir; Thompson, Bijoy

    2013-04-01

    IPCC-coordinated work has been completed within Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to project climate and ocean variables for the 21st century using coupled atmospheric-ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs). Resolution of the GCMs is not sufficient to resolve local features of narrow Malacca and Singapore Straits, having complex coastal line and bathymetry; therefore, dynamical downscaling of ocean variables from the global grid to the regional scale is advisable using ocean models, such as Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). ROMS is customized for the domain centered on the Singapore and Malacca Straits, extending from 98°E to 109°E and 6°S to 14°N. Following IPCC methodology, the modelling is done for the past reference period 1961-1990, and then for the 21st century projections; subsequently, established past and projected trends and variability of ocean parameters are inter-compared. Boundary conditions for the past reference period are extracted from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), while the projections are made using A2 scenario runs of ECHAM5 and CCSM3 GCMs. Atmospheric forcing for ROMS is downscaled with WRF using ERA-40 dataset for the past period, and outputs of atmospheric variables of respective GCMs for the projections. ROMS-downscaled regional sea level change during 1961-1990, corrected for the global thermosteric effect, land-ice melting and Global Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) effect, corresponds to a mean total trend of 1.52 mm/year, which is higher than the global estimate 1.25 mm/year and observed global sea-level rise (1.44 mm/year) for the same period. Local linear trend in the Singapore Strait (0.9 mm/year) corresponds to the observed trend at Victoria Dock tide gauge (1.1 mm/year) for the past period. Mean discharges through the Karimata, Malacca and Singapore Straits are 0.9, 0.21 and 0.12 Sv, respectively, fall in the range of observations and recent model estimates. A2 scenario projections using ROMS-ECHAM5 and ROMS-CCSM3 for

  14. Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahmstorf, Stefan; Foster, Grant; Cazenave, Anny

    2012-01-01

    We analyse global temperature and sea-level data for the past few decades and compare them to projections published in the third and fourth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results show that global temperature continues to increase in good agreement with the best estimates of the IPCC, especially if we account for the effects of short-term variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, volcanic activity and solar variability. The rate of sea-level rise of the past few decades, on the other hand, is greater than projected by the IPCC models. This suggests that IPCC sea-level projections for the future may also be biased low. (letter)

  15. Aspects of Remote Sensing in the GEOid and Sea level Of the North Atlantic Region (GEOSONAR) Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hilger, Klaus Baggesen; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Knudsen, Per

    1999-01-01

    The general objectives of the GEOid and Sea level Of the North Atlantic Region (GEOSONAR) project are presented. These include analyses of the dynamics of the ocean and its characteristics. The analyses are mainly based on remote sensing. As an example a data set obtained by the multi-channel Sea-viewing...... Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFs) is analysed. The presentation results include the computed principal components (PC) and the maximum autocorrelation factors (MAF). Both methods are expected to be incorporated into future analyses of the state of the ocean....

  16. Identification of assessment methods of benefits and costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kronbak, Lone Grønbæk; Roth, Eva

    This note relates to tasks 4.1of the KnowSeas project and is a guidance-note to give directions towards the assessment of benefit and costs related to fisheries and advice on the further objectives related to this assessment.......This note relates to tasks 4.1of the KnowSeas project and is a guidance-note to give directions towards the assessment of benefit and costs related to fisheries and advice on the further objectives related to this assessment....

  17. Environmental assessments of sea dumped chemical warfare agents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanderson, Hans; Fauser, Patrik

    This is a report on the information gathered during work related to sea dumped chemical warfare agents. It mainly reviews the work conducted in relation to the installation of the two Nord Stream gas pipeline from 2008-2012. The focus was on the weight-of-evidence risk assessment of disturbed CWA...... residues in connection with the installation of the pipelines. Novel exposure and toxicity assessments are presented and the risk is assessed. The overall conclusion is that there is a negligible acute added CWA risk towards the fish community from the installation of the pipelines....

  18. An overview of the SeaWiFS project and strategies for producing a climate research quality global ocean bio-optical time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClain, Charles R.; Feldman, Gene C.; Hooker, Stanford B.

    2004-01-01

    The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) Project Office was formally initiated at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in 1990. Seven years later, the sensor was launched by Orbital Sciences Corporation under a data-buy contract to provide 5 years of science quality data for global ocean biogeochemistry research. To date, the SeaWiFS program has greatly exceeded the mission goals established over a decade ago in terms of data quality, data accessibility and usability, ocean community infrastructure development, cost efficiency, and community service. The SeaWiFS Project Office and its collaborators in the scientific community have made substantial contributions in the areas of satellite calibration, product validation, near-real time data access, field data collection, protocol development, in situ instrumentation technology, operational data system development, and desktop level-0 to level-3 processing software. One important aspect of the SeaWiFS program is the high level of science community cooperation and participation. This article summarizes the key activities and approaches the SeaWiFS Project Office pursued to define, achieve, and maintain the mission objectives. These achievements have enabled the user community to publish a large and growing volume of research such as those contributed to this special volume of Deep-Sea Research. Finally, some examples of major geophysical events (oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial) captured by SeaWiFS are presented to demonstrate the versatility of the sensor.

  19. Testing the usability of the Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix (RIAM) method for comparison of EIA and SEA results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuitunen, Markku; Jalava, Kimmo; Hirvonen, Kimmo

    2008-01-01

    This study examines how the results of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) could be compared using the Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix (RIAM) method. There are many tools and techniques that have been developed for use in impact assessment processes, including scoping, checklists, matrices, qualitative and quantitative models, literature reviews, and decision-support systems. While impact assessment processes have become more technically complicated, it is recognized that approaches including simpler applications of available tools and techniques are also appropriate. The Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix (RIAM) is a tool for organizing, analysing and presenting the results of a holistic EIA. RIAM was originally developed to compare the impact of alternative procedures in a single project. In this study, we used RIAM to compare the environmental and social impact of different projects, plans and programs realized within the same geographical area. RIAM scoring is based on five separate criteria. The RIAM criteria were applied to the impact that was considered to be the most significant in the evaluated cases, and scores were given both on environmental and social impact. Our results revealed that the RIAM method could be used for comparison and ranking of separate and distinct projects, plans, programs and policies, based on their negative or positive impact. Our data included 142 cases from the area of Central Finland that is covered by the Regional Council of Central Finland. This sample consisted of various types of projects, ranging from road construction to education programs that applied for EU funding

  20. Multi-mission mean sea surface and geoid models for ocean monitoring within the GOCINA project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, O. B.; Knudsen, P.; Anne, V. L.

    2004-05-01

    A major goal of the EU project GOCINA (Geoid and Ocean Circulation In the North Atlantic) is to develop tools for ocean monitoring using satellite altimetry combined with satellite gravimetry. Furthermore, the project will determine an accurate geoid in the region between Greenland and the UK and, hereby, create a platform for validation of future GOCE Level 2 data and higher order scientific products. The central quantity bridging the geoid and the ocean circulation is the mean dynamic topography, which is the difference between the mean sea surface and the geoid. The mean dynamic topography provides the absolute reference surface for the ocean circulation. The improved determination of the mean circulation will advance the understanding of the role of the ocean mass and heat transport in climate change. To calculate the best possible synthetic mean dynamic topographies a new mean sea surface (KMS03) has been derived from nine years of altimetric data (1993-2001). The regional geoid has furthermore being updated using GRACE and gravimetric data from a recent airborne survey. New synthetic mean dynamic topography models have been computed from the best available geoid models (EGM96, GRACE, GOCINA) and the present mean sea surface models (i.e. CLS01, GSFC00, KMS03). These models will be compared with state of the art hydrodynamic mean dynamic topography models in the North Atlantic GOCINA area. An extended comparison in the Artic Ocean will also be presented to demonstrate the impact of improved geoid and mean sea surface modeling. Particularly using the GRACE derived geoid models, and the KMS03 mean sea surface.

  1. Assessment on vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea level rise in the Yangtze Estuary, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, L.; Ge, Z.; Zhang, L.

    2013-12-01

    The Yangtze Delta in China is vital economic hubs in terms of settlement, industry, agriculture, trade and tourism as well as of great environmental significance. In recent decades, the prospect of climate change, in particular sea level rise and its effects on low lying coastal areas have generated worldwide attention to coastal ecosystems. Coastal wetlands, as important parts of coastal ecosystem, are particularly sensitive to sea level rise. To study the responses of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisites for securing the coastal zone ecosystems. In this study, taking the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary as a case study, the potential impacts of sea-level rise to coastal wetlands habitat were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model. The key indicators, such as the sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, elevation, daily inundation duration of habitat and sedimentation rate, were selected to build a vulnerability assessment system according to the IPCC definition of vulnerability, i.e. the aspects of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation. A quantitatively spatial assessment method on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. The vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the sea level rise rate of the present trend and IPCC A1F1 scenario were performed for three sets of projections of short-term (2030s), mid-term (2050s) and long-term (2100s). The results showed that at the present trend of sea level rise rate of 0.26 cm/a, 92.3 % of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary was in the EVI score of 0 in 2030s, i.e. the impact of sea level rise on habitats/species of coastal wetlands was negligible. While 7.4 % and 0.3 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of

  2. A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Claudia; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Muis, Sanne; Lincke, Daniel; Satta, Alessio; Lionello, Piero; Jimenez, Jose A.; Conte, Dario; Hinkel, Jochen

    2018-01-01

    We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial assessment units. Using information on coastal morphology, human settlements and administrative boundaries, we have divided the Mediterranean coast into 13 900 coastal assessment units. To these units we have spatially attributed 160 parameters on the characteristics of the natural and socio-economic subsystems, such as extreme sea levels, vertical land movement and number of people exposed to sea-level rise and extreme sea levels. The database contains information on current conditions and on plausible future changes that are essential drivers for future impacts, such as sea-level rise rates and socio-economic development. Besides its intended use in risk and impact assessment, we anticipate that the Mediterranean Coastal Database (MCD) constitutes a useful source of information for a wide range of coastal applications. PMID:29583140

  3. A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Claudia; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Muis, Sanne; Lincke, Daniel; Satta, Alessio; Lionello, Piero; Jimenez, Jose A.; Conte, Dario; Hinkel, Jochen

    2018-03-01

    We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial assessment units. Using information on coastal morphology, human settlements and administrative boundaries, we have divided the Mediterranean coast into 13 900 coastal assessment units. To these units we have spatially attributed 160 parameters on the characteristics of the natural and socio-economic subsystems, such as extreme sea levels, vertical land movement and number of people exposed to sea-level rise and extreme sea levels. The database contains information on current conditions and on plausible future changes that are essential drivers for future impacts, such as sea-level rise rates and socio-economic development. Besides its intended use in risk and impact assessment, we anticipate that the Mediterranean Coastal Database (MCD) constitutes a useful source of information for a wide range of coastal applications.

  4. A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Claudia; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Muis, Sanne; Lincke, Daniel; Satta, Alessio; Lionello, Piero; Jimenez, Jose A; Conte, Dario; Hinkel, Jochen

    2018-03-27

    We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial assessment units. Using information on coastal morphology, human settlements and administrative boundaries, we have divided the Mediterranean coast into 13 900 coastal assessment units. To these units we have spatially attributed 160 parameters on the characteristics of the natural and socio-economic subsystems, such as extreme sea levels, vertical land movement and number of people exposed to sea-level rise and extreme sea levels. The database contains information on current conditions and on plausible future changes that are essential drivers for future impacts, such as sea-level rise rates and socio-economic development. Besides its intended use in risk and impact assessment, we anticipate that the Mediterranean Coastal Database (MCD) constitutes a useful source of information for a wide range of coastal applications.

  5. Distribution and pollution assessment of heavy metals in surface sediments in the Yellow Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xin; Teng, Ankang; Xu, Wenzhe; Liu, Xiaoshou

    2014-06-15

    Heavy metal concentrations in surface sediments at 56 stations during two cruises in the Yellow Sea in summer and winter, 2011 were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. The pollution status was assessed via the Geoaccumulation index and Hankanson potential ecological risk index. Higher concentrations of heavy metals (except for Mn) were found in the central Southern Yellow Sea and the western Northern Yellow Sea. The higher contents of Mn were much closer to Shandong Peninsula. Correlation analyses indicated that Pb, Cu, Fe, Ni, Zn and Co probably had the same origin and were controlled by grain size and total organic carbon. Pollution assessment showed that most areas of the Yellow Sea were not or lowly contaminated with the exception of the northwest and south parts of the Southern Yellow Sea showing Cd-contamination. The pollution status of the Yellow Sea in summer was worse than that in winter. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Projections of wind-waves in South China Sea for the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, Aboobacker; Dykyi, Pavlo; Zheleznyak, Mark; Tkalich, Pavel

    2013-04-01

    IPCC-coordinated work has been completed within Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to project climate and ocean variables for the 21st century using coupled atmospheric-ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs). GCMs are not having a wind-wave variable due to a poor grid resolution; therefore, dynamical downscaling of wind-waves to the regional scale is advisable using well established models, such as Wave Watch III (WWIII) and SWAN. Rectilinear-coordinates WWIII model is adapted for the far field comprising the part of Pacific and Indian Oceans centered at the South China Sea and Sunda Shelf (90 °E-130 °E, 10 °S - 26.83 °N) with a resolution of 10' (about 18 km). Near-field unstructured-mesh SWAN model covers Sunda Shelf and centered on Singapore Strait, while reading lateral boundary values from WWIII model. The unstructured grid has the coarsest resolution in the South China Sea (6 to 10 km), medium resolution in the Malacca Strait (1 to 2 km), and the finest resolution in the Singapore Strait (400 m) and along the Singapore coastline (up to 100 m). Following IPCC methodology, the model chain is validated climatologically for the past period 1961-1990 against Voluntary Observing Ship (VOS) data; additionally, the models are validated using recent high-resolution satellite data. The calibrated model chain is used to project waves to 21st century using WRF-downscaled wind speed output of CCSM GCM run for A1FI climate change scenario. To comply with IPCC methodology the entire modeling period is split into three 30-years periods for which statistical parameters are computed individually. Time series of significant wave height at key points near Singapore and on ship sea routes in the SCS are statistically analysed to get probability distribution functions (PDFs) of extreme values. Climatological maps of mean and maximum significant wave height (SWH) values, and mean wave period are built for Singapore region for each 30-yrs period. Linear trends of mean SWH values

  7. Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) for wind energy planning: Lessons from the United Kingdom and Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phylip-Jones, J., E-mail: jonesjp@liverpool.ac.uk; Fischer, T.B., E-mail: fischer@liv.ac.uk

    2015-01-15

    This paper reports on SEA applied in the wind energy sector in the UK and Germany. Based on a review of 18 SEAs, it is found that the quality of SEA documentation is variable, with over a third of them being deemed unsatisfactory. Furthermore, SEA processes are conducted to varying degrees of effectiveness, with scoping a strength but impact prediction and mitigation weaknesses. Generally speaking, the influence of SEA on German wind energy plan making was found to be low and the influence of SEA on UK plans deemed to be moderate. The German plans had a low influence mainly because of a perceived high environmental performance of the underlying plans in the first instance. Substantive outcomes of SEA are not always clear and the influence of SEA on decision making is said to be limited in many cases. Finally, a lack of effective tiering between SEA and project level EIA is also observed. In addition, our findings echo some of the weaknesses of SEA practice found in previous studies of SEA effectiveness, including poor impact prediction and significance sections and a lack of detailed monitoring programmes for post plan implementation.

  8. Assessment of the impact of sea-level rise due to climate change on coastal groundwater discharge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masciopinto, Costantino; Liso, Isabella Serena

    2016-11-01

    An assessment of sea intrusion into coastal aquifers as a consequence of local sea-level rise (LSLR) due to climate change was carried out at Murgia and Salento in southern Italy. The interpolation of sea-level measurements at three tide-gauge stations was performed during the period of 2000 to 2014. The best fit of measurements shows an increasing rate of LSLR ranging from 4.4mm/y to 8.8mm/y, which will result in a maximum LSLR of approximately 2m during the 22nd century. The local rate of sea-level rise matches recent 21st and 22nd century projections of mean global sea-level rise determined by other researchers, which include increased melting rates of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, the effect of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps, and changes in the quantity of stored land water. Subsequently, Ghyben-Herzberg's equation for the freshwater/saltwater interface was rewritten in order to determine the decrease in groundwater discharge due to the maximum LSLR. Groundwater flow simulations and ArcGIS elaborations of digital elevation models of the coast provided input data for the Ghyben-Herzberg calculation under the assumption of head-controlled systems. The progression of seawater intrusion due to LSLR suggests an impressive depletion of available groundwater discharge during the 22nd century, perhaps as much as 16.1% of current groundwater pumping for potable water in Salento. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Technology assessment Jordan Nuclear Power Plant Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    Preliminary regional analysis was carried out for identification of potential sites for NPP, followed by screening of these sites and selecting candidate sites. Aqaba sites are proposed, where it can use the sea water for cooling: i.Site 1; at the sea where it can use the sea water for direct cooling. ii.Site 2; 10 km to the east of Gulf of Aqaba shoreline at the Saudi Arabia borders. iii.Site 3, 4 km to the east of Gulf of Aqaba shoreline. Only the granitic basement in the east of the 6 km²site should be considered as a potential site for a NPP. Preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment gives: Operating-Basis Earthquake-OBE (475 years return period) found to be in the range of 0.163-0.182 g; Safe Shutdown Earthquake-SSE (10,000 years return period) found to be in the range of 0.333-0.502g. The process include also setting up of nuclear company and other organizational matters. Regulations in development are: Site approval; Construction permitting; Overall licensing; Safety (design, construction, training, operations, QA); Emergency planning; Decommissioning; Spent fuel and RW management. JAEC's technology assessment strategy and evaluation methodology are presented

  10. Molecular biodiversity of Red Sea demosponges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erpenbeck, Dirk; Voigt, Oliver; Al-Aidaroos, Ali M.; Berumen, Michael L.; Büttner, Gabriele; Catania, Daniela; Guirguis, Adel Naguib; Paulay, Gustav; Schätzle, Simone

    2016-01-01

    Sponges are important constituents of coral reef ecosystems, including those around the Arabian Peninsula. Despite their importance, our knowledge on demosponge diversity in this area is insufficient to recognize, for example, faunal changes caused by anthropogenic disturbances. We here report the first assessment of demosponge molecular biodiversity from Arabia, with focus on the Saudi Arabian Red Sea, based on mitochondrial and nuclear ribosomal molecular markers gathered in the framework of the Sponge Barcoding Project. We use a rapid molecular screening approach on Arabian demosponge collections and analyze results in comparison against published material in terms of biodiversity. We use a variable region of 28S rDNA, applied for the first time in the assessment of demosponge molecular diversity. Our data constitutes a solid foundation for a future more comprehensive understanding of sponge biodiversity of the Red Sea and adjacent waters. - Highlights: •First assessment of demosponge molecular biodiversity from Arabia •Rapid molecular screening approach on Arabian demosponge collections •Assessment of 28S 'C-Region' for demosponge barcoding •Data for a future comprehensive understanding of sponge biodiversity of the Red Sea

  11. SeaDataNet : Pan-European infrastructure for marine and ocean data management - Project objectives, structure and components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maudire, G.; Maillard, C.; Fichaut, M.; Manzella, G.; Schaap, D. M. A.

    2009-04-01

    SeaDataNet : Pan-European infrastructure for marine and ocean data management Project objectives, structure and components G. Maudire (1), C. Maillard (1), G. Manzella (2), M. Fichaut (1), D.M.A. Schaap (3), E. Iona (4) and the SeaDataNet consortium. (1) IFREMER, Brest, France (Gilbert.Maudire@ifremer.fr), (2) ENEA, La Spezia, Italy, (3) Mariene Informatie Service 'MARIS', Voorburg, The Netherlands, (4) Hellenic Centre for Marine Research-HCMR, Anavyssos, Greece. Since a large part of the earth population lives near the oceans or carries on activities directly or indirectly linked to the seas (fishery and aquaculture, exploitation of sea bottom resources, international shipping, tourism), knowledge of oceans is of primary importance for security and economy. However, observation and monitoring of the oceans remains difficult and expensive even if real improvements have been achieved using research vessels and submersibles, satellites and automatic observatories like buoys, floats and seafloor observatories transmitting directly to the shore using global transmission systems. More than 600 governmental or private organizations are active in observation of seas bordering Europe, but European oceanographic data are fragmented, not always validated and not always easily accessible. That highlights the need of international collaboration to tend toward a comprehensive view of ocean mechanisms, resources and changes. SeaDataNet is an Integrated research Infrastructure Initiative (I3) in European Union Framework Program 6 (2006 - 2011) to provide the data management system adapted both to the fragmented observation systems and to the users need for an integrated access to data, meta-data, products and services. Its major objectives are to: - encourage long-term archiving at national level to secure ocean data taking into account that all the observations made in the variable oceanic environment can never be remade if they are lost; - promote best practices for data

  12. Project Assessment Framework through Design (PAFTD) - A Project Assessment Framework in Support of Strategic Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depenbrock, Brett T.; Balint, Tibor S.; Sheehy, Jeffrey A.

    2014-01-01

    Research and development organizations that push the innovation edge of technology frequently encounter challenges when attempting to identify an investment strategy and to accurately forecast the cost and schedule performance of selected projects. Fast moving and complex environments require managers to quickly analyze and diagnose the value of returns on investment versus allocated resources. Our Project Assessment Framework through Design (PAFTD) tool facilitates decision making for NASA senior leadership to enable more strategic and consistent technology development investment analysis, beginning at implementation and continuing through the project life cycle. The framework takes an integrated approach by leveraging design principles of useability, feasibility, and viability and aligns them with methods employed by NASA's Independent Program Assessment Office for project performance assessment. The need exists to periodically revisit the justification and prioritization of technology development investments as changes occur over project life cycles. The framework informs management rapidly and comprehensively about diagnosed internal and external root causes of project performance.

  13. Social impact assessment in energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koivujaervi, S.; Kantola, I.; Maekinen, P.

    1998-01-01

    The research report is based on literature and interviews on the social impact assessment (SIA) in energy projects in Finland, both before and after the EIA Act has been in force in Finland. The concept and content of SIA, the requirements set by the legislation, its relation with other environmental impacts, the assessment process and the used methods have been studied on the basis of the literature analysis. A total of 26 persons representing the coordination authorities, persons issuing statements, researchers, civil servants, consultants and project developers were interviewed for the research. The interviews were made by the University of Turku in the form of theme interviews, investigating the present status, practices and expectations of the SIA. The unestablished status was seen to be the problem in the SIA, which was reflected in the interviewers' varying views about the content of the SIA. Among the operators, the general character of the SIA criticism in the statements concerning the assessment programmes or reports was seen as a problem as well; the assessment of social impact has been considered to be insufficient, however, without any identification of the effects or how the effects should have been assessed. For the time preceding the EIA Act, the assessment of the social impact of hydraulic work, power plant and transmission line projects and the project of the fifth nuclear power plant have been studied. As to the power plant and transmission line projects after the validity of the EIA Act, all the 20 projects were gone through which had progressed during the spring 1998 at least to the assessment report stage. Of these projects, the assessment of the social impact of one transmission line and one power plant project was studied in detail. The report also studies the assessment of the social impact of the repository for nuclear waste on the basis of the experience gained in Finland and in other countries. On the basis of the literature study

  14. Communicating mega-projects in the face of uncertainties: Israeli mass media treatment of the Dead Sea Water Canal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischhendler, Itay; Cohen-Blankshtain, Galit; Shuali, Yoav; Boykoff, Max

    2015-10-01

    Given the potential for uncertainties to influence mega-projects, this study examines how mega-projects are deliberated in the public arena. The paper traces the strategies used to promote the Dead Sea Water Canal. Findings show that the Dead Sea mega-project was encumbered by ample uncertainties. Treatment of uncertainties in early coverage was dominated by economics and raised primarily by politicians, while more contemporary media discourses have been dominated by ecological uncertainties voiced by environmental non-governmental organizations. This change in uncertainty type is explained by the changing nature of the project and by shifts in societal values over time. The study also reveals that 'uncertainty reduction' and to a lesser degree, 'project cancellation', are still the strategies most often used to address uncertainties. Statistical analysis indicates that although uncertainties and strategies are significantly correlated, there may be other intervening variables that affect this correlation. This research also therefore contributes to wider and ongoing considerations of uncertainty in the public arena through various media representational practices. © The Author(s) 2013.

  15. Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirwan, Matthew L.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Morris, James T.; Mudd, Simon M.; Temmerman, Stijn

    2010-01-01

    Assumptions of a static landscape inspire predictions that about half of the world's coastal wetlands will submerge during this century in response to sea-level acceleration. In contrast, we use simulations from five numerical models to quantify the conditions under which ecogeomorphic feedbacks allow coastal wetlands to adapt to projected changes in sea level. In contrast to previous sea-level assessments, we find that non-linear feedbacks among inundation, plant growth, organic matter accretion, and sediment deposition, allow marshes to survive conservative projections of sea-level rise where suspended sediment concentrations are greater than ~20 mg/L. Under scenarios of more rapid sea-level rise (e.g., those that include ice sheet melting), marshes will likely submerge near the end of the 21st century. Our results emphasize that in areas of rapid geomorphic change, predicting the response of ecosystems to climate change requires consideration of the ability of biological processes to modify their physical environment.

  16. Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritz, Catherine; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Durand, Gaël; Payne, Antony J.; Peyaud, Vincent; Hindmarsh, Richard C. A.

    2015-12-01

    Large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet lying on bedrock below sea level may be vulnerable to marine-ice-sheet instability (MISI), a self-sustaining retreat of the grounding line triggered by oceanic or atmospheric changes. There is growing evidence that MISI may be underway throughout the Amundsen Sea embayment (ASE), which contains ice equivalent to more than a metre of global sea-level rise. If triggered in other regions, the centennial to millennial contribution could be several metres. Physically plausible projections are challenging: numerical models with sufficient spatial resolution to simulate grounding-line processes have been too computationally expensive to generate large ensembles for uncertainty assessment, and lower-resolution model projections rely on parameterizations that are only loosely constrained by present day changes. Here we project that the Antarctic ice sheet will contribute up to 30 cm sea-level equivalent by 2100 and 72 cm by 2200 (95% quantiles) where the ASE dominates. Our process-based, statistical approach gives skewed and complex probability distributions (single mode, 10 cm, at 2100; two modes, 49 cm and 6 cm, at 2200). The dependence of sliding on basal friction is a key unknown: nonlinear relationships favour higher contributions. Results are conditional on assessments of MISI risk on the basis of projected triggers under the climate scenario A1B (ref. 9), although sensitivity to these is limited by theoretical and topographical constraints on the rate and extent of ice loss. We find that contributions are restricted by a combination of these constraints, calibration with success in simulating observed ASE losses, and low assessed risk in some basins. Our assessment suggests that upper-bound estimates from low-resolution models and physical arguments (up to a metre by 2100 and around one and a half by 2200) are implausible under current understanding of physical mechanisms and potential triggers.

  17. Does air-sea coupling influence model projections of the effects of the Paris Agreement?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klingaman, Nicholas; Suckling, Emma; Sutton, Rowan; Dong, Buwen

    2017-04-01

    state can be controlled by prescribed, seasonally varying corrections to temperature and salinity, which substantially reduce SST biases without damping variability. This allows the present-day MetUM-GOML experiment to have a ocean mean state very close to the observed climatology (global RMSE ≈ 0.25°C). We perform three 150-year experiments with MetUM-GOML for (a) present-day (1976-2005 climatology) and for future scenarios with global-mean temperatures (b) 1.5°C and (c) 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels. For (b) and (c), we achieve these warming levels by increasing the CO2 concentrations in MetUM-GOML, as well as by adjusting the prescribed sea ice using change factors derived from a transient simulation with the fully coupled Met Office model. We analyse projected global and regional changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation in our MetUM-GOML simulations, focusing on seasonal means, multi-annual persistence of seasonal extremes (e.g., the probability of consecutive wet summers) and intra-seasonal extremes (e.g., heatwaves, droughts, floods). To identify the influence of air-sea coupling on these projections, we compare the MetUM-GOML simulations to 150-year atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed daily SSTs from the corresponding MetUM-GOML runs. This comparison demonstrates whether atmosphere-ocean feedbacks influence the projections of changes hydro-meteorological extremes in a warmer world, as well as whether these feedbacks affect the assessment of the impacts avoided by limiting global-mean temperature change to 1.5°C. Our results will inform the choice of model framework for, and hence the experiment design of, further efforts to characterise the response to a fixed global-mean temperature increase, as well as future climate-change attribution experiments.

  18. Ecological research on offshore wind energy development in the North and Baltic sea. Part: Environmental planning instruments: Environmental Impacts Assessment (EIA), Habitats Assessment and Strategic Environmetnal Assessment (SEA). Volumes 1-4 and final report; Oekologische Begleitforschung zur Windenergienutzung im Offshore-Bereich der Nord- und Ostsee. Teilbereich 'Instrumente des Umwelt- und Naturschutzes: Strategische Umweltpruefung, Umweltvertraeglichkeitspruefung und Flora-Fauna-Habitat-Vertraeglichkeitspruefung'. Band 1-4 und Schlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koeppel, J.; Langenheld, A.; Peters, W.; Wende, W.; Sommer, S.; Finger, A.; Koeller, J.; Kraetzschmer, D.; Kerber, N.; Mahlburg, S.; Mueller, C.

    2003-07-01

    Within the licensing procedure of offshore wind farms several environmental planning instruments have to be taken into account to assess the probable effects of turbines on the marine environment. So far only little experiences were available on how to fulfil legal and methodical demands with regard to these environmental planning instruments offshore. Hence it was the principle task of this project to analyse how instruments like the environmental impacts assessment (EIA), the habitats assessment and the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) can be adapted to the special conditions of the marine environment and the legal requirements of the licensing procedure in the German EEZ according to the offshore installations ordinance. Since according to the offshore installations ordinance the construction and operation of offshore wind farms can only be refused for environmental reasons when the marine environment is endangered, the project first investigated for different aspects of the marine environment (e.g. marine mammals, birds, benthos, visual landscape) which kind of conflicts can possibly be caused by the construction and operation of turbines and of which legal significance they are with regard to the licensing procedure. Referring to those environmental impacts which have been considered as relevant for the licensing procedure the state of knowledge has been investigated by means of expert interviews and literature research. Practicable starting points for the impact assessment were suggested. With regard to the required environmental assessment within the licensing procedure one result of the project is a structured documentation of the standard of knowledge (volume I). Further on the project developed proposals for the application of the planning instruments EIA, habitats assessment and SEA offshore based on legal regulations. The result is a catalogue of requirements regarding the content and proceedings of the instruments implementation in connection

  19. An assessment of biological processes close to the sea bed in a slope region and its significance to the assessment of sea bed disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hargreaves, P.M.; Ellis, C.J.; Angel, M.V.

    1984-01-01

    Vertical profiles of planktonic and micronektonic biomass observed close to the sea bed along a transect running up the continental slope on the southern flank of the Porcupine Seabight (to the southwest of Ireland) showed that a doubling in biomass concentration occurs from 100 to 10m above the sea bed. Comparison with biomass concentrations at two deep water stations, one in the Seabight and the other in the Rockall Trough, showed that there was a consistent increase in standing crop close to the sea bed over the slope. Supplementary data were collected on the northern flank of the Seabight. Analysis of both taxonomic groups and individual species showed that some taxa were more abundant near the sea floor and extended their vertical ranges to greater depths over the slope than over deep water, other taxa were unaffected. The implications to the problem of assessing the safety of sea bed disposal of high level radioactive waste are summarised. (author)

  20. Joint projections of sea level and storm surge using a flood index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, C. M.; Lin, N.; Horton, R. M.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2016-02-01

    Capturing the joint influence of sea level rise (SLR) and tropical cyclones (TCs) on future coastal flood risk poses significant challenges. To address these difficulties, Little et al. (2015) use a proxy of tropical cyclone activity and a probabilistic flood index that aggregates flood height and duration over a wide area (the US East and Gulf coasts). This technique illuminates the individual impacts of TCs and SLR and their correlation across different coupled climate models. By 2080-2099, changes in the flood index relative to 1986-2005 are substantial and positively skewed: a 10th-90th percentile range of 35-350x higher for a high-end business-as-usual emissions scenario (see figure). This aggregated flood index: 1) is a means to consistently combine TC-driven storm surges and SLR; 2) provides a more robust description of historical surge-climate relationships than is available at any one location; and 3) allows the incorporation of a larger climate model ensemble - which is critical to uncertainty characterization. It does not provide a local view of the complete spectrum of flood severity (i.e. return curves). However, alternate techniques that provide localized return curves (e.g. Lin et al., 2012) are computationally intensive, limiting the set of large-scale climate models that can be incorporated, and require several linked statistical and dynamical models, each with structural uncertainties that are difficult to quantify. Here, we present the results of Little et al. (2015) along with: 1) alternate formulations of the flood index; 2) strategies to localize the flood index; and 3) a comparison of flood index projections to those provided by model-based return curves. We look to this interdisciplinary audience for feedback on the advantages and disadvantages of each tool for coastal planning and decision-making. Lin, N., K. Emanuel, M. Oppenheimer, and E. Vanmarcke, 2012: Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change. Nature

  1. Circulation pattern-based assessment of projected climate change for a catchment in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Jódar, Jorge; Carrera, Jesús

    2018-01-01

    We present an approach for evaluating catchment-scale hydro-meteorological impacts of projected climate change based on the atmospheric circulation patterns (ACPs) of a region. Our approach is motivated by the conjecture that GCMs are especially good at simulating the atmospheric circulation patterns that control moisture transport, and which can be expected to change in response to global warming. In support of this, we show (for the late 20th century) that GCMs provide much better simulations of ACPs than those of precipitation amount for the Upper Guadiana Basin in central Spain. For the same period, four of the twenty GCMs participating in the most recent (5th) IPCC Assessment provide quite accurate representations of the spatial patterns of mean sea level pressure, the frequency distribution of ACP type, the 'number of rainy days per month', and the daily 'probability of rain' (they also reproduce the trend of 'wet day amount', though not the actual magnitudes). A consequent analysis of projected trends and changes in hydro-climatic ACPology between the late 20th and 21st Centuries indicates that (1) actual changes appear to be occurring faster than predicted by the models, and (2) for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) the expected decline in precipitation volume is associated mainly with a few specific ACPs (primarily directional flows from the Atlantic Ocean and Cantabric Sea), and with decreasing probability of rain (linked to increasing temperatures) rather than wet day amount. Our approach is a potentially more insightful alternative for catchment-scale climate impacts assessments than the common approach of statistical downscaling and bias correction.

  2. Updating Maryland's sea-level rise projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boesch, Donald F.; Atkinson, Larry P.; Boicourt, William C.; Boon, John D.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Dalrymple, Robert A.; Ezer, Tal; Horton, Benjamin P.; Johnson, Zoe P.; Kopp, Robert E.; Li, Ming; Moss, Richard H.; Parris, Adam; Sommerfield, Christopher K.

    2013-01-01

    With its 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying rural and urban lands, “The Free State” is one of the most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Historically, Marylanders have long had to contend with rising water levels along its Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean and coastal bay shores. Shorelines eroded and low-relief lands and islands, some previously inhabited, were inundated. Prior to the 20th century, this was largely due to the slow sinking of the land since Earth’s crust is still adjusting to the melting of large masses of ice following the last glacial period. Over the 20th century, however, the rate of rise of the average level of tidal waters with respect to land, or relative sea-level rise, has increased, at least partially as a result of global warming. Moreover, the scientific evidence is compelling that Earth’s climate will continue to warm and its oceans will rise even more rapidly. Recognizing the scientific consensus around global climate change, the contribution of human activities to it, and the vulnerability of Maryland’s people, property, public investments, and natural resources, Governor Martin O’Malley established the Maryland Commission on Climate Change on April 20, 2007. The Commission produced a Plan of Action that included a comprehensive climate change impact assessment, a greenhouse gas reduction strategy, and strategies for reducing Maryland’s vulnerability to climate change. The Plan has led to landmark legislation to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions and a variety of state policies designed to reduce energy consumption and promote adaptation to climate change.

  3. Archive of Core and Site/Hole Data and Photographs from the Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) operated the D/V GLOMAR CHALLENGER from 1968-1983, drilling 1,112 holes at 624 sites worldwide. The DSDP was funded by the US...

  4. River Protection Project information systems assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    JOHNSON, A.L.

    1999-01-01

    The Information Systems Assessment Report documents the results from assessing the Project Hanford Management Contract (PHMC) Hanford Data Integrator 2000 (HANDI 2000) system, Business Management System (BMS) and Work Management System phases (WMS), with respect to the System Engineering Capability Assessment Model (CAM). The assessment was performed in accordance with the expectations stated in the fiscal year (FY) 1999 Performance Agreement 7.1.1, item (2) which reads, ''Provide an assessment report on the selected Integrated Information System by July 31, 1999.'' This report assesses the BMS and WMS as implemented and planned for the River Protection Project (RPP). The systems implementation is being performed under the PHMC HANDI 2000 information system project. The project began in FY 1998 with the BMS, proceeded in FY 1999 with the Master Equipment List portion of the WMS, and will continue the WMS implementation as funding provides. This report constitutes an interim quality assessment providing information necessary for planning RPP's information systems activities. To avoid confusion, HANDI 2000 will be used when referring to the entire system, encompassing both the BMS and WMS. A graphical depiction of the system is shown in Figure 2-1 of this report

  5. Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalton, Melinda S.; Jones, Sonya A.

    2010-01-01

    expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot

  6. The screening and scoping of Environmental Impact Assessment and Strategic Environmental Assessment of Carbon Capture and Storage in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koornneef, Joris; Faaij, Andre; Turkenburg, Wim

    2008-01-01

    The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) are procedural tools which have as goal to assess and evaluate possible environmental effects of, respectively, a proposed project or policy plan. The goal of this article is to explore possible bottlenecks in applying both the EIA and SEA procedures on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) activities in the Netherlands, as experience is currently minimal or lacking. In this study we focus mainly on the institutional and procedural aspects of the screening and scoping phases of both procedures. This is achieved by reviewing EIA and SEA procedures for analogue projects for the three distinctive process steps of a CCS project, namely the power plant with capture, the transport and finally the underground storage of the CO 2 . Additionally, EIA and SEA or similar procedures on CCS in other countries are reviewed and the legal framework for the Dutch EIA and SEA is studied. This article shows a concise overview of the EIA and SEA procedure in the Netherlands and the relation between both procedures. Based on our findings we have constructed a conceptual taxonomy for the scope of both procedures for CCS in the Netherlands. This taxonomy conceptualizes the possible integration of assessing the environmental impacts for tiered levels of decision making. This integration might be needed for first CCS projects as decisions on the strategic (spatial planning) level are currently absent for CCS in the Netherlands. Perpendicular to such integration is the integration of linked activities in the CCS chain and their alternatives, into one procedure. We argue that it would be beneficial to combine the separate EIA procedures for CCS activities into one procedure or at least provide close linkage between them. This issue should be carefully considered by regulators, competent authorities and project initiators in an early stage to avoid delaying legal procedures in the future. For the same reason

  7. AoA Region: South Asian Seas

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naqvi, S.W.A.

    is an environmental assessment for the entire Bay of Bengal region (BOBP/ REP/67) prepared for the Swedish Centre for Coastal Development and Management of Aquatic Resources by Holmgren (1994) under the Bay of Bengal Programme. This assessment provides information...-based activities (UNEP 2001) includes information on the South Asian Seas region. Under the Environment Management-Capacity Building Project implemented by the Indian Ministry of Environment and Forests with funding support from the World Bank, the Integrated...

  8. Assessing the impact of sea level rise due to climate change on seawater intrusion in Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, D T; Yamada, T; Ishidaira, H

    2018-03-01

    In the context of climate change, salinity intrusion into rivers has been, and will be, one of the most important issues for coastal water resources management. A combination of changes, including increased temperature, change in regional rainfall, especially sea level rise (SLR) related to climate change, will have significant impacts on this phenomenon. This paper presents the outcomes of a study conducted in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam (MKD) for evaluating the effect of sea water intrusion under a new SLR scenario. Salinity intrusion was simulated by one-dimensional (1D) modeling. The relative sea level projection was constructed corresponding to the RCP 6.0 emission scenario for MKD based on the statistical downscaling method. The sea level in 2050 is projected to increase from 25 cm to 30 cm compared to the baseline period (in 2000). Furthermore, the simulated results suggested that salinity greater than 4 g/l, which affects rice yield, will intrude up to 50-60 km into the river. Approximately 30,000 ha of agricultural area will be affected if the sea level rise is 30 cm.

  9. A research agenda for data and scale issues in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joao, Elsa

    2007-01-01

    The way in which Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) succeeds in its key aim - to integrate the environment into strategic decision-making - is affected by the choice of both data and scale. The data and scale used within SEA fundamentally shape the process. However, in the past, these issues were often not discussed in an explicit or in-depth way. This article proposes a research agenda, and recommendations for future practice, on data and scale issues in SEA. Future research on data issues, spatial and temporal scales (both in terms of detail and extent), tiering, data quality and links to decision-making are recommended. The article concludes that questions of data and scale in SEA are not just technical, they are essential to identifying and understanding the issues that SEA should be addressing, and therefore are a core element of SEA

  10. A vulnerability assessment of 300 species in Florida: threats from sea level rise, land use, and climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Steven Reece

    Full Text Available Species face many threats, including accelerated climate change, sea level rise, and conversion and degradation of habitat from human land uses. Vulnerability assessments and prioritization protocols have been proposed to assess these threats, often in combination with information such as species rarity; ecological, evolutionary or economic value; and likelihood of success. Nevertheless, few vulnerability assessments or prioritization protocols simultaneously account for multiple threats or conservation values. We applied a novel vulnerability assessment tool, the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value, to assess the conservation priority of 300 species of plants and animals in Florida given projections of climate change, human land-use patterns, and sea level rise by the year 2100. We account for multiple sources of uncertainty and prioritize species under five different systems of value, ranging from a primary emphasis on vulnerability to threats to an emphasis on metrics of conservation value such as phylogenetic distinctiveness. Our results reveal remarkable consistency in the prioritization of species across different conservation value systems. Species of high priority include the Miami blue butterfly (Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri, Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii, Florida duskywing butterfly (Ephyriades brunnea floridensis, and Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium. We also identify sources of uncertainty and the types of life history information consistently missing across taxonomic groups. This study characterizes the vulnerabilities to major threats of a broad swath of Florida's biodiversity and provides a system for prioritizing conservation efforts that is quantitative, flexible, and free from hidden value judgments.

  11. Translating Uncertain Sea Level Projections Into Infrastructure Impacts Using a Bayesian Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moftakhari, Hamed; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F.; Matthew, Richard A.; Mazdiyasni, Omid

    2017-12-01

    Climate change may affect ocean-driven coastal flooding regimes by both raising the mean sea level (msl) and altering ocean-atmosphere interactions. For reliable projections of coastal flood risk, information provided by different climate models must be considered in addition to associated uncertainties. In this paper, we propose a framework to project future coastal water levels and quantify the resulting flooding hazard to infrastructure. We use Bayesian Model Averaging to generate a weighted ensemble of storm surge predictions from eight climate models for two coastal counties in California. The resulting ensembles combined with msl projections, and predicted astronomical tides are then used to quantify changes in the likelihood of road flooding under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the near-future (1998-2063) and mid-future (2018-2083). The results show that road flooding rates will be significantly higher in the near-future and mid-future compared to the recent past (1950-2015) if adaptation measures are not implemented.

  12. River Protection Project information systems assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    JOHNSON, A.L.

    1999-07-28

    The Information Systems Assessment Report documents the results from assessing the Project Hanford Management Contract (PHMC) Hanford Data Integrator 2000 (HANDI 2000) system, Business Management System (BMS) and Work Management System phases (WMS), with respect to the System Engineering Capability Assessment Model (CAM). The assessment was performed in accordance with the expectations stated in the fiscal year (FY) 1999 Performance Agreement 7.1.1, item (2) which reads, ''Provide an assessment report on the selected Integrated Information System by July 31, 1999.'' This report assesses the BMS and WMS as implemented and planned for the River Protection Project (RPP). The systems implementation is being performed under the PHMC HANDI 2000 information system project. The project began in FY 1998 with the BMS, proceeded in FY 1999 with the Master Equipment List portion of the WMS, and will continue the WMS implementation as funding provides. This report constitutes an interim quality assessment providing information necessary for planning RPP's information systems activities. To avoid confusion, HANDI 2000 will be used when referring to the entire system, encompassing both the BMS and WMS. A graphical depiction of the system is shown in Figure 2-1 of this report.

  13. How do glacier inventory data aid global glacier assessments and projections?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hock, R.

    2017-12-01

    Large-scale glacier modeling relies heavily on datasets that are collected by many individuals across the globe, but managed and maintained in a coordinated fashion by international data centers. The Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers (GTN-G) provides the framework for coordinating and making available a suite of data sets such as the Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI), the Glacier Thickness Dataset or the World Glacier Inventory (WGI). These datasets have greatly increased our ability to assess global-scale glacier mass changes. These data have also been vital for projecting the glacier mass changes of all mountain glaciers in the world outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet, a total >200,000 glaciers covering an area of more than 700,000 km2. Using forcing from 8 to 15 GCMs and 4 different emission scenarios, global-scale glacier evolution models project multi-model mean net mass losses of all glaciers between 7 cm and 24 cm sea-level equivalent by the end of the 21st century. Projected mass losses vary greatly depending on the choice of the forcing climate and emission scenario. Insufficiently constrained model parameters likely are an important reason for large differences found among these studies even when forced by the same emission scenario, especially on regional scales.

  14. Corrigendum: Bounding sea level projections within the framework of the possibility theory Environ. Res. Lett. (2017 12 014012)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Manceau, Jean-Charles; Rohmer, Jeremy

    2017-10-01

    Figures 3 and 4 of the article ‘Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory’ display a minimum value for sea level rise of 15 cm by 2100 with respect to the 1986-2005 mean for the RCP 8.5. The value of 15 cm is consistent with sea level rise rates dropping back to velocities observed during the 20th century according to recent studies, but not to the current sea level rise velocity of 3.4 mm yr-1, as incorrectly stated in the article. This error has no impact on the rest of the article, including its arguments and conclusions, but it is potentially confusing for scientists willing to reproduce the left side of figures 3 and 4. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.

  15. Data from renewable energy assessments for resort islands in the South China Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basir Khan, M Reyasudin; Jidin, Razali; Pasupuleti, Jagadeesh

    2016-03-01

    Renewable energy assessments for resort islands in the South China Sea were conducted that involves the collection and analysis of meteorological and topographic data. The meteorological data was used to assess the PV, wind and hydropower system potentials on the islands. Furthermore, the reconnaissance study for hydro-potentials were conducted through topographic maps in order to determine the potential sites suitable for development of run-of-river hydropower generation. The stream data was collected for 14 islands in the South China Sea with a total of 51 investigated sites. The data from this study are related to the research article "Optimal combination of solar, wind, micro-hydro and diesel systems based on actual seasonal load profiles for a resort island in the South China Sea" published in Energy (Khan et al., 2015) [1].

  16. An assessment of flux of radionuclide contamination through the large Siberian rivers to the Kara sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maderich, V.; Dziuba, N.; Koshebutsky, V.; Zheleznyak, M.; Volkov, V.

    2004-01-01

    The activities of several nuclear reprocessing plants (Siberian Chemical Combine (SCC) and Mining, Chemical Combine (MCC) and Mayak Production Association (Mayak)) that are placed in the watersheds of large Siberian rivers Ob' and Yenisey may potentially cause contamination of the Arctic Ocean. An assessment of the levels of radionuclide discharges into the Kara Sea from existing and potential sources of techno-genic radioactivity, located within the watershed of the Ob' and Yenisey rivers is presented. In frame of EU INCO-COPERNICUS project RADARC a linked chain of 1D river model RIVTOX and 3D estuary model THREETOX was used to simulate impact of the previous and potential releases from the nuclear installations in the basins of Ob' and Yenisey rivers on radioactive contamination of the rivers and the Kara Sea. The RIVTOX includes the one-dimensional model of river hydraulics, suspended sediment and radionuclide transport in river channels. THREETOX includes a set of submodels: a hydrodynamics sub-model, ice dynamics-thermodynamics sub-model, suspended sediment transport and radionuclide transport submodels. The radionuclide transport model simulate processes in water, suspended sediments and in bottom sediments. These models were adapted to the Ob' river path from Mayak and SCC and Yenisey River from MCC. The simulations of 90 Sr and 137 Cs contamination for the period 1949-1994 were carried out for the Ob' and period 1959-1994 for the Yenisey. The use of model chain allowed to reconstruct contamination of water and sediments along the river path to estimate fluxes into the Kara Sea. It was shown strong initial contamination in early 50's the sediments in the Ob' were sources for secondary contamination of river and estuary. Based on chosen realistic scenarios, simulations have been performed in order to assess the potential risk of contamination from existing and potential sources of radionuclides into the Kara Sea through the Ob' and Yenisey rivers. (author)

  17. 2010 USGS Lidar: Salton Sea (CA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The USGS Salton Sea project encompasses a 5-kilometer buffer around the Salton Sea, California. Dewberry classified LiDAR for a project boundary that touches 623...

  18. Deep-sea coral research and technology program: Alaska deep-sea coral and sponge initiative final report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooper, Chris; Stone, Robert P.; Etnoyer, Peter; Conrath, Christina; Reynolds, Jennifer; Greene, H. Gary; Williams, Branwen; Salgado, Enrique; Morrison, Cheryl L.; Waller, Rhian G.; Demopoulos, Amanda W.J.

    2017-01-01

    Deep-sea coral and sponge ecosystems are widespread throughout most of Alaska’s marine waters. In some places, such as the central and western Aleutian Islands, deep-sea coral and sponge resources can be extremely diverse and may rank among the most abundant deep-sea coral and sponge communities in the world. Many different species of fishes and invertebrates are associated with deep-sea coral and sponge communities in Alaska. Because of their biology, these benthic invertebrates are potentially impacted by climate change and ocean acidification. Deepsea coral and sponge ecosystems are also vulnerable to the effects of commercial fishing activities. Because of the size and scope of Alaska’s continental shelf and slope, the vast majority of the area has not been visually surveyed for deep-sea corals and sponges. NOAA’s Deep Sea Coral Research and Technology Program (DSCRTP) sponsored a field research program in the Alaska region between 2012–2015, referred to hereafter as the Alaska Initiative. The priorities for Alaska were derived from ongoing data needs and objectives identified by the DSCRTP, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC), and Essential Fish Habitat-Environmental Impact Statement (EFH-EIS) process.This report presents the results of 15 projects conducted using DSCRTP funds from 2012-2015. Three of the projects conducted as part of the Alaska deep-sea coral and sponge initiative included dedicated at-sea cruises and fieldwork spread across multiple years. These projects were the eastern Gulf of Alaska Primnoa pacifica study, the Aleutian Islands mapping study, and the Gulf of Alaska fish productivity study. In all, there were nine separate research cruises carried out with a total of 109 at-sea days conducting research. The remaining projects either used data and samples collected by the three major fieldwork projects or were piggy-backed onto existing research programs at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center (AFSC).

  19. Project SAFE. Update of the SFR-1 safety assessment. Phase 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Johan; Riggare, P.; Skagius, K.

    1998-10-01

    SFR-1 is a facility for disposal of low-level radioactive operational waste from the nuclear power plants in Sweden. Low-level radioactive waste from industry, medicine, and research is also disposed in SFR-1. The facility is situated in bedrock beneath the Baltic Sea, 1 km off the coast near the Forsmark nuclear power plant. SFR-1 was built between the years 1983 and 1988. An assessment of the long-term performance of the facility was included in the vast documentation that was a part of the application for an operational license. The assessment was presented in the form of a final safety report. In the operational licence for SFR-1 it is stated that renewed safety assessments should be carried out at least each ten years. In order to meet this demand SKB has launched a special project, SAFE (Safety Assessment of Final Disposal of Operational Radioactive Waste). The aim of the project is to update the safety analysis and to prepare a safety report that will be presented to the Swedish authorities not later than year 2000. Project SAFE is divided into three phases. The first phase is a prestudy, and the results of the prestudy are given in this report. The aim of the prestudy is to identify issues where additional studies would improve the basis for the updated safety analysis as well as to suggest how these studies should be carried out. The work has been divided into six different topics, namely the inventory, the near field, the far field, the biosphere, radionuclide transport calculations and scenarios. For each topic the former safety reports and regulatory reviews are scrutinised and needs for additional work is identified. The evaluations are given in appendices covering the respective topics. The main report is a summary of the appendices with a more stringent description of the repository system and the processes that are of interest and therefore should be addressed in an updated safety assessment. However, it should be pointed out that one of the

  20. Molecular biodiversity of Red Sea demosponges

    KAUST Repository

    Erpenbeck, Dirk

    2016-01-07

    Sponges are important constituents of coral reef ecosystems, including those around the Arabian Peninsula. Despite their importance, our knowledge on demosponge diversity in this area is insufficient to recognize, for example, faunal changes caused by anthropogenic disturbances. We here report the first assessment of demosponge molecular biodiversity from Arabia, with focus on the Saudi Arabian Red Sea, based on mitochondrial and nuclear ribosomal molecular markers gathered in the framework of the Sponge Barcoding Project. We use a rapid molecular screening approach on Arabian demosponge collections and analyze results in comparison against published material in terms of biodiversity. We use a variable region of 28S rDNA, applied for the first time in the assessment of demosponge molecular diversity. Our data constitutes a solid foundation for a future more comprehensive understanding of sponge biodiversity of the Red Sea and adjacent waters.

  1. Molecular biodiversity of Red Sea demosponges

    KAUST Repository

    Erpenbeck, Dirk; Voigt, Oliver; Al-Aidaroos, Ali M.; Berumen, Michael L.; Bü ttner, Gabriele; Catania, Daniela; Guirguis, Adel Naguib; Paulay, Gustav; Schä tzle, Simone; Wö rheide, Gert

    2016-01-01

    Sponges are important constituents of coral reef ecosystems, including those around the Arabian Peninsula. Despite their importance, our knowledge on demosponge diversity in this area is insufficient to recognize, for example, faunal changes caused by anthropogenic disturbances. We here report the first assessment of demosponge molecular biodiversity from Arabia, with focus on the Saudi Arabian Red Sea, based on mitochondrial and nuclear ribosomal molecular markers gathered in the framework of the Sponge Barcoding Project. We use a rapid molecular screening approach on Arabian demosponge collections and analyze results in comparison against published material in terms of biodiversity. We use a variable region of 28S rDNA, applied for the first time in the assessment of demosponge molecular diversity. Our data constitutes a solid foundation for a future more comprehensive understanding of sponge biodiversity of the Red Sea and adjacent waters.

  2. The emperor's new clothes - Reflections on strategic environmental assessment (SEA) practice in South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Retief, Francois; Jones, Carys; Jay, Stephen

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents the results of research which evaluated the performance of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) practice in South Africa in order to develop understanding of how SEA functions within a developing country with a voluntary SEA system. The research applied a combination of methods in a mixed research strategy, including a macro level survey of the SEA system together with case study reviews exploring micro level application. Three main 'system features' emerged, namely expansion of voluntary practice, diversity in practice and general ineffectiveness. The results also highlight a number of 'application features' such as a lack of focus due to an inability to deal with the concepts of 'sustainability' and 'significance', as well as poor understanding and integration with decision-making processes. Moreover, it emerged that none of the case studies seem to have conducted an 'assessment' per se, but rather provided a framework for strategic decision-making. The paper puts forward a number of interrelated explanations for these system and application features. In a parallel to the fable of the 'emperor's new clothes', SEA in South Africa appears to be regarded as the answer to all environmental problems, whilst being ineffective in practice

  3. WHISPERS Project on the easternmost slope of the Ross Sea (Antarctica): preliminary results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivo, E.; De Santis, L.; Bergamasco, A.; Colleoni, F.; Gales, J. A.; Florindo-Lopez, C.; Kim, S.; Kovacevic, V.; Rebesco, M.

    2017-12-01

    The advance and retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from the outer continental shelf and the oceanic circulation are the main causes of the depositional processes on the Ross Sea continental slope, at present time and during the most of the Cenozoic. Currently the Antarctic Bottom Water formation is directly linked to the relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water that, encroaching the continental shelf, mixes with the colder Ross Sea Bottom Water. Detailed multibeam and geological surveys useful to locate and characterize peculiar morphological structures on the bottom are essential to study how the glacial and oceanographic processes interact with the seabed sediments. In the framework of the PNRA-WHISPERS project (XXXIIth Italian Antarctic expedition - January/March 2017), new multibeam bathymetric, sub-bottom chirp, were acquired from the easternmost margin of the Ross Sea, on the southeastern side of the Hayes Bank, usually covered by sea ice. We observed on the upper slope erosional features (incised gullies of likely glacial meltwater origin). A broad scar in the upper slope is characterized by an elongated SSW-NNE ridge (10 km long, 850-1200 m water depth, 2 km wide), that may be a remnants of previous glacial or debris flow deposits, eroded by meltwater outwash discharge at the beginning of grounding ice retreat and by RSBW cascading along the slope, as documented by Expandable Bathy-Thermograph and Acoustic Depth Current Profile data. Sub-bottom chirp profiles crossing this ridge show a very low amplitude reflective sea bed, supporting the hypothesis of its soft sediment nature, in good agreement with a very low acoustic velocity obtained by multichannel seismic data reprocessing. The occurrence of internal stratification on 2D multichannel seismic profiles would discount a gas-fluids related mud volcano origin. No sediment cores were collected, due to bad sea conditions and limited ship time, further data collection would be needed to fully understand

  4. Inventory and sensitivity mapping in the German Wadden Sea. June 1987 - June 1993. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernem, K.H. van; Knuepling, J.; Ramm, G.; Neugebohrn, L.

    1994-01-01

    The project 'Thematische Kartierung und Sensitivitaetsraster des Deutschen Wattenmeeres' includes a methodically uniform inventory of the whole German Wadden Sea performed between 1987 and 1992. The inventory is based on quantitative and descriptive data and contains a documentation of temporary aspects. The project acts as a nucleus for the development of the Wadden Sea information System WATiS. The project forms the basis for direct applications for nature protection and oil-spill measures; in addition, a procedure to deliminate representative areals is demonstrated which can be used for example in the 'Trilateral Monitoring and Assessment Program' for the Wadden Sea. With the coupling to the computerbased maritime environmental management system 'REMUS' (presently developed) the prerequisites are generated to combine logistical, technical and scientific techniques for provision and combat measures. (orig.) [de

  5. Sea Ice Evolution in the Pacific Arctic by Selected CMIP5 Models: the Present and the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, M.; Yang, Q.; Overland, J. E.; Stabeno, P. J.

    2016-12-01

    With fast declining of sea ice cover in the Arctic, the timing of sea ice break-up and freeze-up is an urgent economic, social and scientific issue. Based on daily sea ice concentration data we assess three parameters: the dates of sea ice break-up and freeze-up and the annual sea ice duration in the Pacific Arctic. The sea ice duration is shrinking, with the largest trend during the past decade (1990-2015); this declining trend will continue based on CMIP5 model projections. The seven CMIP5 models used in current study are able to simulate all three parameters well when compared with observations. Comparisons made at eight Chukchi Sea mooring sites and the eight Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) boxes show consistent results as well. The 30-year averaged trend for annual sea ice duration is projected to be -0.68 days/year to -1.2 days/year for 2015-2044. This is equivalent 20 to 36 days reduction in the annual sea ice duration. A similar magnitude of the negative trend is also found at all eight DBO boxes. The reduction in annual sea ice duration will include both earlier break-up dates and later freeze-up date. However, models project that a later freeze-up contributes more than early break-up to the overall shortening of annual sea ice duration. Around the Bering Strait future changes are the smallest, with less than 20-days change in duration during next 30 years. Upto 60 days reduction of the sea ice duration is projected for the decade of 2030-2044 in the East Siberia, the Chukchi and the Beaufort Seas.

  6. NOAA NDBC SOS, 2008-present, sea_floor_depth_below_sea_surface

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA NDBC SOS server is part of the IOOS DIF SOS Project. The stations in this dataset have sea_floor_depth_below_sea_surface data. Because of the nature of SOS...

  7. The Sea Around Us Project: documenting and communicating global fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauly, Daniel

    2007-06-01

    The Sea Around Us Project, initiated by the Pew Charitable Trusts in Philadelphia, PA, and located at the Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, started in mid 1999. Its goal was (and still is) to investigate the impact of fisheries on marine ecosystems and to propose policies to mitigate these impacts. Although conceived as a global activity, the project first emphasized the data-rich North Atlantic as a test bed for developing its approaches, which rely on mapping of catch data and indicators of ecosystem health derived from the analysis of long catch time series data. Initial achievements included mapping the decline, throughout the North Atlantic basin, of high-trophic level fishes from 1900 to the present and the presentation of compelling evidence of change in the functioning of the North Atlantic ecosystems, summarized in a 2003 book. The Central and South Atlantic were the next basins to be tackled, with emphasis on the distant-water fleet off West Africa, culminating in a major conference in Dakar, Senegal, in 2002. The project then emphasized the North Pacific, Antarctica, and marine mammals and the multiplicity of tropical Indo-Pacific fisheries before it turned completely global, with all our major analyses and reports (e.g., on the interactions between marine mammals and fisheries, on fuel consumption by fleets, on the catches of small-scale fisheries, on subsidies to fisheries) being based on global studies. Broadly, the work of the project is aimed at a reappraisal of fisheries, from the benign activity that many interested people still perceive them to be, to a realization that they have become the driver for massive loss of biodiversity in the ocean. Moreover, the emphasis on global estimates (rather than local estimates of dubious generality) has allowed the project to contribute to various global initiatives (e.g., developing the Marine Trophic Index for the Convention on Biological Diversity, quantifying marine

  8. Sea-level rise: towards understanding local vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2012-06-01

    Projections of global sea-level rise into the future have become more pessimistic over the past five years or so. A global rise by more than one metre by the year 2100 is now widely accepted as a serious possibility if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. That is witnessed by the scientific assessments that were made since the last IPCC report was published in 2007. The Delta Commission of the Dutch government projected up to 1.10 m as a 'high-end' scenario (Vellinga et al 2009). The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) projected up to 1.40 m (Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research 2009), and the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) gives a range of 0.90-1.60 m in its 2011 report (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme 2011). And recently the US Army Corps of Engineers recommends using a 'low', an 'intermediate' and a 'high' scenario for global sea-level rise when planning civil works programmes, with the high one corresponding to a 1.50 m rise by 2100 (US Army Corps of Engineers 2011). This more pessimistic view is based on a number of observations, most importantly perhaps the fact that sea level has been rising at least 50% faster in the past decades than projected by the IPCC (Rahmstorf et al 2007, IPCC 2007). Also, the rate of rise (averaged over two decades) has accelerated threefold, from around 1 mm yr-1 at the start of the 20th century to around 3 mm yr-1 over the past 20 years (Church and White 2006), and this rate increase closely correlates with global warming (Rahmstorf et al 2011). The IPCC projections, which assume almost no further acceleration in the 20th century, thus look less plausible. And finally the observed net mass loss of the two big continental ice sheets (Van den Broeke et al 2011) calls into question the assumption that ice accumulation in Antarctica would largely balance ice loss from Greenland in the course of further global warming (IPCC 2007). With such a serious sea-level rise on the horizon

  9. Radiotracers in the Black Sea: A Tool for Marine Environmental Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gulin, S.B.; Egorov, V.N.; Polikarpov, G.G.; Stokozov, N.A.; Mirzoeva, N.Yu.; Tereshenko, N.N.; Gulina, L.V.; Proskurnin, V.Yu.; Osvath, I.

    2011-01-01

    Strait connecting the Black Sea with the Mediterranean, and sedimentary scavenging of sorption reactive radionuclides on sinking particles. Because of effects of these factors the initial inventory of Chernobyl-derived radionuclides has decreased abruptly, reaching currently the pre-accident level, except estuarine zones particularly of the Danube and Dnieper Rivers account for 75 % of the total river runoff to the Black Sea and 95 % of the runoff entering the NW Black Sea. In turn, study of the post- Chernobyl dynamics of radionuclide concentration in different compartments of the Black Sea ecosystem gave a unique opportunity to evaluate a number of hydrological, geochemical, and ecological processes and to trace their long-term changes, achieving eventually an integrated assessment of potential capability of the Black Sea for self-purification against both nuclear and non-nuclear pollutants

  10. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  11. Collecting and Analyzing At-Sea and Coastal Avian Data to Assess Potential Effects of Offshore Renewable Energy Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereksta, D. M.

    2016-02-01

    The prospect of renewable energy development off the coasts of the United States has led to a scramble for data needs on potentially affected resources, particularly those related to avian species. The potential effects from renewable energy development to avian species are complex and varied including collision, displacement, barrier effects, and attraction. As the lead Federal agency for renewable energy development on the Federal outer continental shelf (OCS), the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has initiated, in coordination with other agencies and partners, the collection and synthesizing of existing data, identification of data gaps, development and funding of studies to fill those gaps, and creation of products for assessing risk to birds from structures at sea. Through the Environmental Studies Program, BOEM collects a wide range of environmental information to provide an improved understanding of offshore ecosystems, a baseline for assessing cumulative effects, and the scientific basis for development of regulatory measures to mitigate adverse impacts. With broad-scale assessments of suitable areas for wind, wave, and tidal energy production offshore, the challenge has been to collect and compile information quickly and at as large a scale as possible. Assessing what we know, what we can predict, and how can we assess risk has led BOEM to develop and collaborate on a variety of studies including baseline data assessments, at-sea surveys, predictive modeling of seabird distribution and abundance, vulnerability and risk assessments, and technology testing for efficient ways to inventory birds on the OCS. These are being applied in both the Atlantic and Pacific, including the Main Hawaiian Islands, to provide for assessments of potential effects and data needs early in the planning process at regional and local scales with the goal of designing and implementing projects that will minimize effects to avian species to the greatest extent practicable.

  12. The Contribution of Project Environmental Assessment to Assessing and Managing Cumulative Effects: Individually and Collectively Insignificant?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noble, Bram; Liu, Jialang; Hackett, Paul

    2017-04-01

    This paper explores the opportunities and constraints to project-based environmental assessment as a means to support the assessment and management of cumulative environmental effects. A case study of the hydroelectric sector is used to determine whether sufficient information is available over time through project-by-project assessments to support an adequate understanding of cumulative change. Results show inconsistency from one project to the next in terms of the components and indicators assessed, limited transfer of baseline information between project assessments over time, and the same issues and concerns being raised by review panels-even though the projects reviewed are operating in the same watershed and operated by the same proponent. Project environmental assessments must be managed, and coordinated, as part of a larger system of impact assessment, if project-by-project assessments are to provide a meaningful forum for learning and understanding cumulative change. The paper concludes with recommendations for improved project-based assessment practice in support of cumulative effects assessment and management.

  13. Methods and problems in assessing the impacts of accelerated sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Dennis, Karen C.; Volonte, Claudio R.; Leatherman, Stephen P.

    1992-06-01

    Accelerated sea-level rise is one of the more certain responses to global warming and presents a major challenge to mankind. However, it is important to note that sea-level rise is only manifest over long timescales (decades to centuries). Coastal scientists are increasingly being called upon to assess the physical, economic and societal impacts of sea-level rise and hence investigate appropriate response strategies. Such assessments are difficult in many developing countries due to a lack of physical, demographic and economic data. In particular, there is a lack of appropriate topographic information for the first (physical) phase of the analysis. To overcome these difficulties we have developed a new rapid and low-cost reconnaissance technique: ``aerial videotape-assisted vulnerability analysis'' (AVA). It involves: 1) videotaping the coastline from a small airplane; 2) limited ground-truth measurements; and 3) archive research. Combining the video record with the ground-truth information characterizes the coastal topography and, with an appropriate land loss model, estimates of the physical impact for different sea-level rise scenarios can be made. However, such land loss estimates raise other important questions such as the appropriate seaward limit of the beach profile. Response options also raise questions such as the long-term costs of seawalls. Therefore, realistic low and high estiimates were developed. To illustrate the method selected results from Senegal, Uruguay and Venezuela are presented.

  14. Benchmarking of numerical models describing the dispersion of radionuclides in the Arctic Seas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scott, E.M.; Gurbutt, P.; Harms, I.

    1997-01-01

    As part of the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP) of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a working group was created to model the dispersal and transfer of radionuclides released from radioactive waste disposed of in the Kara Sea. The objectives of this group are: (1......) development of realistic and reliable assessment models for the dispersal of radioactive contaminants both within, and from, the Arctic ocean; and (2) evaluation of the contributions of different transfer mechanisms to contaminant dispersal and hence, ultimately, to the risks to human health and environment...

  15. Sea Ice Summer Camp: Bringing Together Arctic Sea Ice Modelers and Observers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perovich, D. K.; Holland, M. M.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic sea ice has undergone dramatic change and numerical models project this to continue for the foreseeable future. Understanding the mechanisms behind sea ice loss and its consequences for the larger Arctic and global systems is of critical importance if we are to anticipate and plan for the future. One impediment to progress is a disconnect between the observational and modeling communities. A sea ice summer camp was held in Barrow Alaska from 26 May to 1 June 2016 to overcome this impediment and better integrate the sea ice community. The 25 participants were a mix of modelers and observers from 13 different institutions at career stages from graduate student to senior scientist. The summer camp provided an accelerated program on sea ice observations and models and also fostered future collaborative interdisciplinary activities. Each morning was spent in the classroom with a daily lecture on an aspect of modeling or remote sensing followed by practical exercises. Topics included using models to assess sensitivity, to test hypotheses and to explore sources of uncertainty in future Arctic sea ice loss. The afternoons were spent on the ice making observations. There were four observational activities; albedo observations, ice thickness measurements, ice coring and physical properties, and ice morphology surveys. The last field day consisted of a grand challenge where the group formulated a hypothesis, developed an observational and modeling strategy to test the hypothesis, and then integrated the observations and model results. The impacts of changing sea ice are being felt today in Barrow Alaska. We opened a dialog with Barrow community members to further understand these changes. This included an evening discussion with two Barrow sea ice experts and a community presentation of our work in a public lecture at the Inupiat Heritage Center.

  16. Understanding extreme sea levels for coastal impact and adaptation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Hinkel, J.; Dangendorf, S.; Slangen, A.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels, because increasing damage due to extreme events, such as storm surges and tropical cyclones, is one of the major consequences of sea level rise and climate change. In fact, the IPCC has highlighted in its AR4 report that "societal impacts of sea level change primarily occur via the extreme levels rather than as a direct consequence of mean sea level changes". Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future mean sea level; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact assessments at various spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. The uncertainties in future sea level rise are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios leading to a vertical displacement of the distribution of extreme sea-levels. And indeed most regional and global studies find little or no evidence for changes in storminess with climate change, although there is still low confidence in the results. However, and much more importantly, there is still a limited understanding of present-day extreme sea-levels which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of extreme sea-levels. The bias of these models varies spatially and can reach values much larger than the expected sea level rise; but it can be accounted for in most regions making use of in-situ measurements; (2) Statistical models used for determining present-day extreme sea-level exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored inter-model uncertainties for mean sea level, we explore here, for the first time, inter

  17. Molecular biodiversity of Red Sea demosponges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erpenbeck, Dirk; Voigt, Oliver; Al-Aidaroos, Ali M; Berumen, Michael L; Büttner, Gabriele; Catania, Daniela; Guirguis, Adel Naguib; Paulay, Gustav; Schätzle, Simone; Wörheide, Gert

    2016-04-30

    Sponges are important constituents of coral reef ecosystems, including those around the Arabian Peninsula. Despite their importance, our knowledge on demosponge diversity in this area is insufficient to recognize, for example, faunal changes caused by anthropogenic disturbances. We here report the first assessment of demosponge molecular biodiversity from Arabia, with focus on the Saudi Arabian Red Sea, based on mitochondrial and nuclear ribosomal molecular markers gathered in the framework of the Sponge Barcoding Project. We use a rapid molecular screening approach on Arabian demosponge collections and analyze results in comparison against published material in terms of biodiversity. We use a variable region of 28S rDNA, applied for the first time in the assessment of demosponge molecular diversity. Our data constitutes a solid foundation for a future more comprehensive understanding of sponge biodiversity of the Red Sea and adjacent waters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Improving the assessment and management of the plaice stock complex between the North Sea and the Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ulrich, Clara; Boje, Jesper; Cardinale, Massimiliano

    2012-01-01

    Plaice in Kattegat and Skagerrak have traditionally been considered as one stock unit. However the collected information on biology and fishery in areas between the North and Baltic Seas suggest changes are needed in assessment units as well as in management areas. Plaice in Skagerrak (Division 20...

  19. Data from renewable energy assessments for resort islands in the South China Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Reyasudin Basir Khan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energy assessments for resort islands in the South China Sea were conducted that involves the collection and analysis of meteorological and topographic data. The meteorological data was used to assess the PV, wind and hydropower system potentials on the islands. Furthermore, the reconnaissance study for hydro-potentials were conducted through topographic maps in order to determine the potential sites suitable for development of run-of-river hydropower generation. The stream data was collected for 14 islands in the South China Sea with a total of 51 investigated sites. The data from this study are related to the research article “Optimal combination of solar, wind, micro-hydro and diesel systems based on actual seasonal load profiles for a resort island in the South China Sea” published in Energy (Khan et al., 2015 [1]. Keywords: South China Sea, Solar radiation,wind speed, rainfall, microhydropower, PV system, Wind energy generation system

  20. Wave Impacts on Caisson Breakwaters Situated in Multidirectionally Breaking Seas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grønbech, J.; Burcharth, Hans F.; Frigaard, Peter

    1999-01-01

    Attention has been addressed to the effects of wave obliquity and multidirectionality on the wave loads on vertical caisson breakwaters situated in non breaking seas. Within the joint European (MAST-LIP-TAW) research project, a 3D model investigation was carried out at Delft Hydraulics to assess...

  1. Marine environmental assessment of the Black Sea region ministerial meeting. Opening statement, Monaco, 5 October 1998

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ElBaradei, M.

    1998-01-01

    The document reproduces the text of the Opening Statement of the Director General of the IAEA at the Ministerial Meeting on Marine Environmental Assessment of the Black Sea Region, held in Monaco, on 5 October 1998. The Director General emphasized the contribution of the IAEA, mainly through its Technical Co-operation Programme, in strengthening the international co-operation in marine environmental assessment of the Black Sea region

  2. Assessing risk of navigational hazard from sea-level-related datum in the South West of Java Sea, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poerbandono

    2017-07-01

    This paper assesses the presence of navigational hazards due to underestimation of charted depths originated from an establishment of a sea-level-related reference plane, i.e. datum. The study domain is situated in one of Indonesia's densest marine traffic, SW Java Sea, Indonesia. The assessment is based on the comparison of the authorized Chart Datum (CD), being uniformly located at 0.6 m below Mean Sea Level (MSL), and a spatially varying Lowest Astronomical Tide (LAT) generated for the purpose of this research. Hazards are considered here as the deviation of LAT from CD and quantified as the ratio of LAT -CD deviation with respect to the allowable Total Vertical Uncertainty (TVU), i.e. the international standard for accuracy of depth information on nautical charts. Underestimation of charted depth is expected for the case that LAT falls below CD. Such a risk magnifies with decreasing depths, as well as the increasing volume of traffic and draught of the vessel. It is found that most of the domain is in the interior of risk-free zone from using uniform CD. As much as 0.08 and 0.19 parts of the area are in zones where the uncertainty of CD contributes respectively to 50% and 30% of Total Vertical Uncertainty. These are zones where the hazard of navigation is expected to increase due to underestimated lowest tidal level.

  3. Salton Sea Scientific Drilling Project: A summary of drilling and engineering activities and scientific results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, H.P.; Forsgren, C.K. (eds.)

    1992-04-01

    The Salton Sea Scientific g Project (SSSDP) completed the first major well in the United States Continental Scientific Drilling Program. The well (State 2-14) was drilled to 10,W ft (3,220 m) in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field in California's Imperial Valley, to permit scientific study of a deep, high-temperature portion of an active geothermal system. The program was designed to investigate, through drilling and testing, the subsurface thermal, chemical, and mineralogical environments of this geothermal area. Extensive samples and data, including cores, cuttings, geothermal fluids and gases, and geophysical logs, were collected for future scientific analysis, interpretation, and publication. Short duration flow tests were conducted on reservoirs at a depth of approximately 6,120 ft (1,865 m) and at 10,136 ft (3,089 m). This report summarizes all major activities of the SSSDP, from project inception in the fall of 1984 through brine-pond cleanup and site restoration, ending in February 1989. This report presents a balanced summary of drilling, coring, logging, and flow-test operations, and a brief summary of technical and scientific results. Frequent reference is made to original records, data, and publication of results. The report also reviews the proposed versus the final well design, and operational summaries, such as the bit record, the casing and cementing program, and the coring program. Summaries are and the results of three flow tests. Several teamed during the project.

  4. Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    Europe's coast faces a variety of climate change threats from extreme high tides, storm surges and rising sea levels. In particular, it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels, thus posing higher risks to coastal locations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation processes. In 2007 the European Commission approved the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC), which has the main purpose to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks for inland and coastal areas, thus reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activities. Improvements in scientific understanding are thus needed to inform decision-making about the best strategies for mitigating and managing storm surge risks in coastal areas. The CLIMDAT project is aimed at improving the understanding of the risks related to extreme storm surge events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy), considering potential climate change scenarios. The project implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology developed in the FP7 KULTURisk project for the assessment of physical/environmental impacts posed by flood hazards and employs the DEcision support SYstem for Coastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) for the application of the methodology to the case study area. The proposed RRA methodology is aimed at the identification and prioritization of targets and areas at risk from water-related natural hazards in the considered region at the meso-scale. To this aim, it integrates information about extreme storm surges with bio-geophysical and socio-economic information (e.g. vegetation cover, slope, soil type, population density) of the analyzed receptors (i.e. people, economic activities, cultural heritages, natural and semi-natural systems). Extreme storm surge hazard scenarios are defined using tide gauge time series coming from 28 tide gauge

  5. Consideration of vertical uncertainty in elevation-based sea-level rise assessments: Mobile Bay, Alabama case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesch, Dean B.

    2013-01-01

    The accuracy with which coastal topography has been mapped directly affects the reliability and usefulness of elevationbased sea-level rise vulnerability assessments. Recent research has shown that the qualities of the elevation data must be well understood to properly model potential impacts. The cumulative vertical uncertainty has contributions from elevation data error, water level data uncertainties, and vertical datum and transformation uncertainties. The concepts of minimum sealevel rise increment and minimum planning timeline, important parameters for an elevation-based sea-level rise assessment, are used in recognition of the inherent vertical uncertainty of the underlying data. These concepts were applied to conduct a sea-level rise vulnerability assessment of the Mobile Bay, Alabama, region based on high-quality lidar-derived elevation data. The results that detail the area and associated resources (land cover, population, and infrastructure) vulnerable to a 1.18-m sea-level rise by the year 2100 are reported as a range of values (at the 95% confidence level) to account for the vertical uncertainty in the base data. Examination of the tabulated statistics about land cover, population, and infrastructure in the minimum and maximum vulnerable areas shows that these resources are not uniformly distributed throughout the overall vulnerable zone. The methods demonstrated in the Mobile Bay analysis provide an example of how to consider and properly account for vertical uncertainty in elevation-based sea-level rise vulnerability assessments, and the advantages of doing so.

  6. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  7. Project W-420 Ventilation Stack Monitoring System Year 2000 Compliance Assessment Project Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BUSSELL, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    This document contains a limited assessment of Year 2000 compliance for Project W-420. Additional information is provided as a road map to project documents and other references that may be used to verify Year 2000 compliance. This assessment describes the potential Year 2000 (Y2K) problems and describes the methods for achieving Y2K Compliance for Project W-420, Ventilation Stack Monitoring Systems Upgrades. The purpose of this assessment is to give an overview of the project. This document will not be updated and any dates contained in this document are estimates and may change. The project work scope includes upgrades to ventilation stacks and generic effluent monitoring systems (GEMS) at the 244-A Double Contained Receiver Tank (DCRT), the 244-BX DCRT, the 244-CR Vault, tanks 241-C-105 and 241-C-106, the 244-S DCRT, and the 244-TX DCRT. A detailed description of system dates, functions, interfaces, potential Y2K problems, and date resolutions can not be described since the project is in the definitive design phase, This assessment will describe the methods, protocols, and practices to ensure that equipment and systems do not have Y2K problems

  8. Geology and assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the Northwest Laptev Sea Shelf Province, 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klett, Timothy; Pitman, Janet K.; Moore, Thomas E.; Gautier, Donald L.

    2017-12-22

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has recently assessed the potential for undiscovered oil and gas resources in the Northwest Laptev Sea Shelf Province as part of the USGS Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal. The province is in the Russian Arctic, east of Severnaya Zemlya and the Taimyr fold-and-thrust belt. The province is separated from the rest of the Laptev Sea Shelf by the Severnyi transform fault. One assessment unit (AU) was defined for this study: the Northwest Laptev Sea Shelf AU. The estimated mean volumes of undiscovered petroleum resources in the Northwest Laptev Sea Shelf Province are approximately 172 million barrels of crude oil, 4.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 119 million barrels of natural-gas liquids, north of the Arctic Circle.

  9. The Black Sea one decade after the Bucharest Convention an overview of the international activities in the Black Sea region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goektepe, G.

    2002-01-01

    The catastrophic degradation of the Black Sea in a period of four decade has been the major concern of the Black Sea countries and international communities since Bucharest Convention signed in 1992. The Black Sea Region has became a challenging international arena for political scientific and socio-economic activities. Intensive international programmes and establishment of governmental and Non Governmental Organizational structures of the 1990s including Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC), Black Sea Environmental Programme(BSEP), Environmental Programme for the Danube River Basin, Marine Environmental Assessment of the Black Sea Region Technical Cooperation Programme by the IAEA and establishment of the Black Sea Commission Permanent Secretariat are some of the major international efforts of the past decade that emphasizes the multi-nationality and large dimension of the Black Sea environmental management issues. The environmental degradation of the Black Sea is briefly reviewed based on the BSEP reports and data available for land based pollution sources. The environmental risk of marine vessel accidents are indicated and environmental safety concern is emphasized under the current conditions of intense energy transportation projects in the Black Sea and Caspian regions. The international policy actions, co-operation issues and scientific programmes of the past decade are overviewed with emphasis on the international achievements. Concluding remarks include the vital importance of continuation of the international commitments and sharing the political, scientific and socio-economic responsibility on the transboundary environmental pollution, rehabilitation and the safety issues of the Black Sea

  10. Evaluating model simulations of 20th century sea-level rise. Part 1: global mean sea-level change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Meyssignac, B.; Agosta, C.; Champollion, N.; Church, J.A.; Fettweis, X.; Ligtenberg, S.R.M.; Marzeion, B.; Melet, A.; Palmer, M.D.; Richter, K.; Roberts, C.D.; Spada, G.

    2017-01-01

    Sea level change is one of the major consequences of climate change and is projected to affect coastal communities around the world. Here, global mean sea level (GMSL) change estimated by 12 climate models from phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate Model Intercomparison Project

  11. Environmental assessment methodologies for sea dumping of radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-09-01

    The IAEA and the IMO, in cooperation with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), jointly convened a Technical Committee to provide guidance to national authorities. This document contains the results of the Technical Committee Meeting in Vienna, August - September 1982 and constitutes guidance to the Contracting Parties to the LDC Convention on the nature and content of the environmental assessment required for permit applications for sea dumping of radioactive wastes

  12. Strategic environmental assessment in post-modern times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, Thomas B.

    2003-01-01

    The increasing awareness of the findings of policy and decision making theory in the environmental assessment community has recently led to an intensifying debate on the theoretical foundations and the appropriate practical use of strategic environmental assessment (SEA). In this context, most of the recent suggestions on how to improve practice have been influenced--consciously or sub-consciously--by the post-modernist paradigm, focusing particularly on a better integration of SEA into 'real' decision making and procedural flexibility. There have also been suggestions that traditional project environmental impact assessment (EIA)-based SEA approaches are generally inadequate. Reacting to the latter criticism, this paper aims at defending 'traditional' systematically structured and normative approaches to SEA. While it is acknowledged that a purely professional and technological paradigm to SEA is something of the past, it is proposed that leaving the design of 'flexible' SEA to the will of proponents and stakeholders might ultimately render it incapable of protecting the environment

  13. Tidd PFBC Demonstration Project, A DOE Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    National Energy Technology Laboratory

    2001-08-31

    The Clean Coal Technology (CCT) Demonstration Program is a government and industry co-funded technology development effort to demonstrate a new generation of innovative coal utilization processes. One goal of the program is to furnish the energy marketplace with a variety of energy efficient, environmentally superior coal-based technologies. Demonstration projects seek to establish the commercial feasibility of the most promising coal technologies that have proceeded beyond the proof-of-concept stage. This report is a post-project assessment of the DOE CCT Demonstration Program, the Tidd PFBC Demonstration Project. A major objective of the CCT Program is to provide the technical data necessary for the private sector to proceed confidently with the commercial replication of the demonstrated technologies. An essential element of meeting this goal is the dissemination of results from the demonstration projects. This post-project assessment (PPA) report is an independent DOE appraisal of the successes that the completed project had in achieving its objectives and aiding in the commercialization of the demonstrated technology. The report also provides an assessment of the expected technical, environmental, and economic performance of the commercial version of the technology, as well as an analysis of the commercial market.

  14. Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Tony E.; Keller, Klaus

    2017-10-01

    Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, LA. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans.

  15. Impact assessment at the submergence of radioactive materials during sea transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsumune, Daisuke; Tsubono, Takaki; Saegusa, Toshiari; Ito, Chihiro

    2009-01-01

    Radioactive materials in Type B package have been transported safely on the sea under INF code and IAEA standard. Environmental and dose impact assessments have been made by assuming that a Type B package might be sunk into the sea since 1970s to enhance public understanding on safety of these transport. A method of the impact assessment consists of the estimation of release rates of radionuclide from a package, simulation of radionuclide concentration both in the coastal and global areas, and estimation of dose assessment for the public. We summarized the radiological impact at the submergence of Type B packages. The evaluated results of the dose equivalents by radiation exposure to the public for all materials were far below the dose equivalent limit of the ICRP recommendation (1mSv year -1 ). These assessments had a lot of uncertainties especially in the simulation of radionuclide concentration therefore the results might be overestimated. Estimations of ocean circulation and diffusion are important in this assessment. Ocean circulation model have been improved to simulate the material transport with higher resolutions. We developed more realistic methods to simulate both in the coastal and global areas to explain the evaluated results of the impacts to the public in an efficient manner. General circulation models around Japan and an ocean general circulation model were employed at the coastal and global areas respectively. It is impossible to validate the method directly because no accidents with release of radionuclide in the ocean have occurred since first sea transport of Type B packages. Therefore we simulated background radionuclide concentrations by fallouts ( 137 Cs) to validate the methods. Fallouts were input into ocean by nuclear weapon test since 1945 and mainly in 1960s. And their concentrations in the ocean have been measured to keep monitoring the artificial contaminations now. Observed database is useful to compare with simulated results in both

  16. Oil pollution in the Baltic Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostianoy, Andrey G.; Lavrova, Olga Yu.

    2014-01-01

    This thorough review is based on observational satellite, airborne and in-situ data, scientific literature and technical reports, as well as the substantial experience of the authors, who hail from several Baltic Sea countries. They pay special attention to national practices, HELCOM and EMSA CleanSeaNet activities in oil pollution monitoring, and show different applications of the Seatrack Web model for oil spill drift prediction and the identification of illegal polluters, as well as for environmental risk assessment. Furthermore, some of the results on satellite monitoring of the Nord Stream gas pipeline construction in the Gulf of Finland are presented. This volume addresses the needs of specialists working in different fields of marine, environmental, and remote sensing sciences. It is a useful handbook on oil pollution for international and governmental agencies, as well as for policy makers who plan and manage oil and gas projects, the construction of ports and terminals, shipping, fishery, recreation, and tourist activities in the Baltic Sea.

  17. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widlansky, Matthew J; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

    2015-09-01

    Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño-related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise.

  18. A study on Sea Level Change for Coast of Korean Peninsular from Global Warming and Its Influences I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, K.W.; Kim, J.H. [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2001-12-01

    The Third Assessment Report(2001) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) concluded that the global warming will be accelerated during the 21st century due to the human activities. The projected warming will increase the steric sea level rise which have large adverse effects on the natural and human systems in the coastal zone. This study intends to assess the sea level change and potential impacts of the future sea level rise on the coastal zone of the Korean Peninsula in which much socioeconomic activities have been already occurred. The contents of the present study include reviews on climate change and its impact, assessments of the current and future sea level change in the global scale and seas ne,ar Korea, and impact assessment methodology. The second year study(2002) will be focused on the impact assessment on the coastal zone of the Korea, especially on the inundation problem on human dimension due to the steric sea level rise, storm surge, and tide. Based on the tide gauge data, IPCC(2001) assessed the global average sea level rise during the 20th century is in the range of 10{approx}20cm, which is higher than that of 19th century. The contributing elements to the sea level rise are in the order of ocean thermal expansion, melting of glacier, mass balance change of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and surface and ground water storage and permafrost change. The satellite altimeter data during l990s shows higher trend than the mean trend of tide gauge data during 20th century. The recent high trend of the sea level rise by the altimetry is not clear whether it represents the recent acceleration of the global sea level the differences of the two observation methods, or short observation period of altimetry. In the 21st century, the global mean sea level is projected to increase much due to the acceleration of the warming. Based on the 35 IPCC emission scenarios, the sea level rise in the 21st century will be in the range of 9{approx}88

  19. Biological effects of anthropogenic chemical stress: Tools for the assessment of ecosystem health (BEAST)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehtonen, Kari K.; Sundelin, Brita; Lang, Thomas

    : Tools for the Assessment of Ecosystem Health, 2009-2011), which is part of the Baltic Sea BONUS+ Programme funded jointly by national funding agencies and FP7 ERA-NET+ of the European Commission. The BEAST project consists of three workpackages (WP) with the following main tasks: WP1- Field studies...... and experiments in selected sub-regions of the Baltic Sea, WP2 - Application and validation of methods in monitoring and assessment in the Baltic Sea, and WP3 - Developing tools for ecosystem health assessment in the Baltic Sea. BEAST research activities are focused in the sub-regions of Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf...... of Finland, Gulf of Riga, Gulf of Gdansk and the Belt Sea, most of which are characterised by scarce data on biological effects of hazardous substances. The data acquired will be combined with previous data (e.g. national monitoring activities, case studies, EU BEEP project) to reach the goals of WP2 and WP3...

  20. Clinical pathology and assessment of pathogen exposure in southern and Alaskan sea otters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanni, K.D.; Mazet, J.A.K.; Gulland, F.M.D.; Estes, James A.; Staedler, M.; Murray, M.J.; Miller, M.; Jessup, David A.

    2003-01-01

    The southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) population in California (USA) and the Alaskan sea otter (E. lutris kenyoni) population in the Aleutian Islands (USA) chain have recently declined. In order to evaluate disease as a contributing factor to the declines, health assessments of these two sea otter populations were conducted by evaluating hematologic and/or serum biochemical values and exposure to six marine and terrestrial pathogens using blood collected during ongoing studies from 1995 through 2000. Samples from 72 free-ranging Alaskan, 78 free-ranging southern, and (for pathogen exposure only) 41 debilitated southern sea otters in rehabilitation facilities were evaluated and compared to investigate regional differences. Serum chemistry and hematology values did not indicate a specific disease process as a cause for the declines. Statistically significant differences were found between free-ranging adult southern and Alaskan population mean serum levels of creatinine kinase, alkaline phosphatase, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, calcium, cholesterol, creatinine, glucose, phosphorous, total bilirubin, blood urea nitrogen, and sodium. These were likely due to varying parasite loads, contaminant exposures, and physiologic or nutrition statuses. No free-ranging sea otters had signs of disease at capture, and prevalences of exposure to calicivirus, Brucella spp., and Leptospira spp. were low. The high prevalence (35%) of antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii in free-ranging southern sea otters, lack of antibodies to this parasite in Alaskan sea otters, and the pathogen's propensity to cause mortality in southern sea otters suggests that this parasite may be important to sea otter population dynamics in California but not in Alaska. The evidence for exposure to pathogens of public health importance (e.g., Leptospira spp., T. gondii) in the southern sea otter population, and the naïveté of both populations to other pathogens (e.g., morbillivirus

  1. Clinical pathology and assessment of pathogen exposure in southern and Alaskan sea otters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanni, Krista D; Mazet, Jonna A K; Gulland, Frances M D; Estes, James; Staedler, Michelle; Murray, Michael J; Miller, Melissa; Jessup, David A

    2003-10-01

    The southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) population in California (USA) and the Alaskan sea otter (E. lutris kenyoni) population in the Aleutian Islands (USA) chain have recently declined. In order to evaluate disease as a contributing factor to the declines, health assessments of these two sea otter populations were conducted by evaluating hematologic and/or serum biochemical values and exposure to six marine and terrestrial pathogens using blood collected during ongoing studies from 1995 through 2000. Samples from 72 free-ranging Alaskan, 78 free-ranging southern, and (for pathogen exposure only) 41 debilitated southern sea otters in rehabilitation facilities were evaluated and compared to investigate regional differences. Serum chemistry and hematology values did not indicate a specific disease process as a cause for the declines. Statistically significant differences were found between free-ranging adult southern and Alaskan population mean serum levels of creatinine kinase, alkaline phosphatase, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, calcium, cholesterol, creatinine, glucose, phosphorous, total bilirubin, blood urea nitrogen, and sodium. These were likely due to varying parasite loads, contaminant exposures, and physiologic or nutrition statuses. No free-ranging sea otters had signs of disease at capture, and prevalences of exposure to calicivirus, Brucella spp., and Leptospira spp. were low. The high prevalence (35%) of antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii in free-ranging southern sea otters, lack of antibodies to this parasite in Alaskan sea otters, and the pathogen's propensity to cause mortality in southern sea otters suggests that this parasite may be important to sea otter population dynamics in California but not in Alaska. The evidence for exposure to pathogens of public health importance (e.g., Leptospira spp., T. gondii) in the southern sea otter population, and the naïveté of both populations to other pathogens (e.g., morbillivirus

  2. Public participation in strategic environmental assessment (SEA): Critical review and the Quebec (Canada) approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauthier, Mario; Simard, Louis; Waaub, Jean-Philippe

    2011-01-01

    It is widely accepted that public participation must be a part of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) procedures, and yet few studies have been conducted on the implementation of SEA public participation procedures. Accordingly, the theoretical and practical aspects of public participation in SEA remain research priorities for environmental policy-making. This paper presents a review of the Quebec (Canada) model of public participation in SEA through an evaluation of six public hearings on proposed directions and policies concerning, respectively, hazardous waste, forest protection, residual materials, energy, water management and pig farming. First, the authors examine the theoretical dimensions of SEA and public participation in the process. Second, they give a summary of the lessons that can be learned from the few Canadian and international experiences. Third, they outline the Quebec experience. Finally, they conclude by evaluating the opportunities and limitations of the Quebec experience and make some recommendations to improve its application.

  3. Sustainable assessment of learning experiences based on projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio TRAVERSO RIBÓN

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In a project-based learning experience, the detailed monitoring of the activities in which team members participate can be useful to evaluate their work. Using learning-oriented assessment procedures, supervisors can assess the teamwork abilities with a formative purpose. Evaluation strategies such as self-assessment, peer assessment and co-assessment are often used to make evaluation formative and sustainable. Conducting an assessment strategy is not easy for team members, since they need before to have a reasonable understanding of the evaluation process and criteria. This paper describes a learning-oriented evaluation methodology and an open data framework that can be applied to collaborative project settings. An evaluation rubric and a series of indicators that provide evidences about the developed skills have been elaborated and applied in a small-scale project-based course. Projects were managed and developed with the help of an open source software forge that contains a ticketing tool for planning and tracking of tasks, a version control repository to save the software outcomes, and using a wiki to host text deliverables. The experience provides evidences in favor of using the assessment method and open data framework to make teamwork evaluation more sustainable.

  4. Predicting Land-Ice Retreat and Sea-Level Rise with the Community Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipscomb, William [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-06-19

    Coastal stakeholders need defensible predictions of 21st century sea-level rise (SLR). IPCC assessments suggest 21st century SLR of {approx}0.5 m under aggressive emission scenarios. Semi-empirical models project SLR of {approx}1 m or more by 2100. Although some sea-level contributions are fairly well constrained by models, others are highly uncertain. Recent studies suggest a potential large contribution ({approx}0.5 m/century) from the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet, linked to changes in Southern Ocean wind stress. To assess the likelihood of fast retreat of marine ice sheets, we need coupled ice-sheet/ocean models that do not yet exist (but are well under way). CESM is uniquely positioned to provide integrated, physics based sea-level predictions.

  5. How SEA can inform lenders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banhalmi-Zakar, Zsuzsa; Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    with identifying the financial incentives that ‘green’ projects attract. Although bank lending decisions apply to projects, examination of the lending practices of an Australian and a Hungarian bank have shown that decisions about the type of projects to target or avoid are also made at strategic level...... to inform bank lending decisions.......SEA can be a powerful tool to improve decision-making for plans, policies and programmes, but it can also be a useful for banks. SEA can help lenders address the reputational risks they are exposed to through financing projects that may have a negative impact on the environment and it can also help...

  6. An Assessment of State-of-the-Art Mean Sea Surface and Geoid Models of the Arctic Ocean: Implications for Sea Ice Freeboard Retrieval

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skourup, Henriette; Farrell, Sinéad Louise; Hendricks, Stefan

    2017-01-01

    in a given model in the high frequency domain, primarily due to unresolved gravity features, can result in errors in the estimated along-track freeboard. These errors are exacerbated in areas with a sparse lead distribution in consolidated ice pack conditions. Additionally model errors can impact ocean......State-of-the-art Arctic Ocean mean sea surface (MSS) models and global geoid models (GGMs) are used to support sea ice freeboard estimation from satellite altimeters, as well as in oceanographic studies such as mapping sea level anomalies and mean dynamic ocean topography. However, errors...... geostrophic currents, derived from satellite altimeter data, while remaining biases in these models may impact longer-term, multi-sensor oceanographic time-series of sea level change in the Arctic. This study focuses on an assessment of five state-of-the-art Arctic MSS models (UCL13/04, DTU15...

  7. Re-examination of sea lamprey control policies for the St. Marys River: Completion of an adaptive management cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Michael L.; Brenden, Travis O.; Irwin, Brian J.

    2015-01-01

    The St. Marys River (SMR) historically has been a major producer of sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) in the Laurentian Great Lakes. In the early 2000s, a decision analysis (DA) project was conducted to evaluate sea lamprey control policies for the SMR; this project suggested that an integrated policy of trapping, sterile male releases, and Bayluscide treatment was the most cost-effective policy. Further, it concluded that formal assessment of larval sea lamprey abundance and distribution in the SMR would be valuable for future evaluation of control strategies. We updated this earlier analysis, adding information from annual larval assessments conducted since 1999 and evaluating additional control policies. Bayluscide treatments continued to be critical for sea lamprey control, but high recruitment compensation minimized the effectiveness of trapping and sterile male release under current feasible ranges. Because Bayluscide control is costly, development of strategies to enhance trapping success remains a priority. This study illustrates benefits of an adaptive management cycle, wherein models inform decisions, are updated based on learning achieved from those decisions, and ultimately inform future decisions.

  8. Thermal regime of the State 2-14 well, Salton Sea Scientific Drilling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sass, J.H.; Priest, S.S.; Duda, L.E.; Carson, C.C.; Hendricks, J.D.; Robison, L.C.

    1988-01-01

    Temperature logs were made repeatedly during breaks in drilling and both during and after flow tests in the Salton Sea Scientific Drilling Project well (State 2-14). The purpose of these logs was to assist in identifying zones of fluid loss or gain and to characterize reservoir temperatures. At the conclusion of the active phase of the project, a series of logs was begun in an attempt to establish the equilibrium temperature profile. Thermal gradients decrease from about 250 mK m-1 in the upper few hundred meters to just below 200 mK m-1 near the base of the conductive cap. Using one interpretation, thermal conductivities increase with depth (mainly because of decreasing porosity), resulting in component heat flows that agree reasonably well with the mean of about 450 mW m-2. This value agrees well with heat flow data from the shallow wells within the Salton Sea geothermal field. A second interpretation, in which measured temperature coefficients of quartz- and carbonate-rich rocks are used to correct thermal conductivity, results in lower mean conductivities that are roughly constant with depth and, consequently, systematically decreasing heat flux averaging about 350 mW m-2 below 300 m. This interpretation is consistent with the inference (from fluid inclusion studies) that the rocks in this part of the field were once several tens of degrees Celsius hotter than they are now. The age of this possible disturbance is estimated at a few thousand years. -from Authors

  9. Sea level report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, M.L.

    1979-01-01

    Study of Cenozoic Era sea levels shows a continual lowering of sea level through the Tertiary Period. This overall drop in sea level accompanied the Pleistocene Epoch glacio-eustatic fluctuations. The considerable change of Pleistocene Epoch sea level is most directly attributable to the glacio-eustatic factor, with a time span of 10 5 years and an amplitude or range of approximately 200 m. The lowering of sea level since the end of the Cretaceous Period is attributed to subsidence and mid-ocean ridges. The maximum rate for sea level change is 4 cm/y. At present, mean sea level is rising at about 3 to 4 mm/y. Glacio-eustacy and tectono-eustacy are the parameters for predicting sea level changes in the next 1 my. Glacio-eustatic sea level changes may be projected on the basis of the Milankovitch Theory. Predictions about tectono-eustatic sea level changes, however, involve predictions about future tectonic activity and are therefore somewhat difficult to make. Coastal erosion and sedimentation are affected by changes in sea level. Erosion rates for soft sediments may be as much as 50 m/y. The maximum sedimentation accumulation rate is 20 m/100 y

  10. Marine radioecology. Annual report 1996. Project plan 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-06-01

    The project plan for the EKO-1 project states that 'the main aim of the EKO-1 project is to enable faster and better assessments to be made of the effects of releases of radionuclides into the marine environment'. To meet this goal the main parts of the project were defined as follows: Model work - Identifying parameters of main interest including estimating and validating the values of these parameters; Research - Field studies, environments typical for various Nordic regions, environments with special physical or chemical characteristics. Laboratory studies; Dissemination of information - Seminars, reports, articles. During the project period emphasis has also been put on quality issues concerning sampling and analysis. The project work has progressed in accordance with project plans in 1996 and within the set budget. In modelling a parameter sensitivity analysis was carried out for a radiological assessment model used for the prediction of doses to man from dumping of radioactive waste in the Kara Sea. Doses to man were found to be generally dominated by contributions from long-lived transuranic radionuclides (plutonium and americium) which associate readily with sediments. Sediment related processes and parameters show therefore high sensitivities, especially at long distances (e.g. Barents Sea). Within the EKO-1 project there has been emphasis on encouraging the Nordic aspect of sediment research in spite of the limitations set by nationally run sampling projects. The EKO-1 project has managed this by e.g.: Organizing exchange of samples for analysis links with the EKO-2.3 project ('Limnic systems'). (EG) 52 refs

  11. A MSFD complementary approach for the assessment of pressures, knowledge and data gaps in Southern European Seas: The PERSEUS experience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crise, A.; Kaberi, H.; Ruiz, José Luis Martinez

    2015-01-01

    PERSEUS project aims to identify the most relevant pressures exerted on the ecosystems of the Southern European Seas (SES), highlighting knowledge and data gaps that endanger the achievement of SES Good Environmental Status (GES) as mandated by the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD......). A complementary approach has been adopted, by a meta-analysis of existing literature on pressure/impact/knowledge gaps summarized in tables related to the MSFD descriptors, discriminating open waters from coastal areas. A comparative assessment of the Initial Assessments (IAs) for five SES countries has been also...... independently performed. The comparison between meta-analysis results and IAs shows similarities for coastal areas only. Major knowledge gaps have been detected for the biodiversity, marine food web, marine litter and underwater noise descriptors. The meta-analysis also allowed the identification of additional...

  12. BRICK v0.2, a simple, accessible, and transparent model framework for climate and regional sea-level projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Tony E.; Bakker, Alexander M. R.; Ruckert, Kelsey; Applegate, Patrick; Slangen, Aimée B. A.; Keller, Klaus

    2017-07-01

    Simple models can play pivotal roles in the quantification and framing of uncertainties surrounding climate change and sea-level rise. They are computationally efficient, transparent, and easy to reproduce. These qualities also make simple models useful for the characterization of risk. Simple model codes are increasingly distributed as open source, as well as actively shared and guided. Alas, computer codes used in the geosciences can often be hard to access, run, modify (e.g., with regards to assumptions and model components), and review. Here, we describe the simple model framework BRICK (Building blocks for Relevant Ice and Climate Knowledge) v0.2 and its underlying design principles. The paper adds detail to an earlier published model setup and discusses the inclusion of a land water storage component. The framework largely builds on existing models and allows for projections of global mean temperature as well as regional sea levels and coastal flood risk. BRICK is written in R and Fortran. BRICK gives special attention to the model values of transparency, accessibility, and flexibility in order to mitigate the above-mentioned issues while maintaining a high degree of computational efficiency. We demonstrate the flexibility of this framework through simple model intercomparison experiments. Furthermore, we demonstrate that BRICK is suitable for risk assessment applications by using a didactic example in local flood risk management.

  13. Insights into Spatial Sensitivities of Ice Mass Response to Environmental Change from the SeaRISE Ice Sheet Modeling Project I: Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert A.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Aschwanden, Andy; Bueler, Ed; Choi, Hyengu; Fastook, Jim; Granzow, Glen; Greve, Ralf; Gutowski, Gail; hide

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric, oceanic, and subglacial forcing scenarios from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) project are applied to six three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet models to assess Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity over a 500 year timescale and to inform future modeling and field studies. Results indicate (i) growth with warming, except within low-latitude basins (where inland thickening is outpaced by marginal thinning); (ii) mass loss with enhanced sliding (with basins dominated by high driving stresses affected more than basins with low-surface-slope streaming ice); and (iii) mass loss with enhanced ice shelf melting (with changes in West Antarctica dominating the signal due to its marine setting and extensive ice shelves; cf. minimal impact in the Terre Adelie, George V, Oates, and Victoria Land region of East Antarctica). Ice loss due to dynamic changes associated with enhanced sliding and/or sub-shelf melting exceeds the gain due to increased precipitation. Furthermore, differences in results between and within basins as well as the controlling impact of sub-shelf melting on ice dynamics highlight the need for improved understanding of basal conditions, grounding-zone processes, ocean-ice interactions, and the numerical representation of all three.

  14. Framework and operational procedure for implementing Strategic Environmental Assessment in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bao Cunkuan; Lu Yongsen; Shang Jincheng

    2004-01-01

    Over the last 20 years, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) has been implemented and become an important instrument for decision-making in development projects in China. The Environmental Impact Assessment Law of the P.R. China was promulgated on 28 October 2002 and will be put into effect on 1 September of 2003. The law provides that Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is required in regional and sector plans and programs. This paper introduces the research achievements and practice of SEA in China, discusses the relationship of SEA and 'integrating of environment and development in decision-making (IEDD)', and relevant political and legal basis of SEA. The framework and operational procedures of SEA administration and enforcement are presented. Nine cases are analyzed and some proposals are given

  15. Strategic environmental assessment can help solve environmental impact assessment failures in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alshuwaikhat, Habib M.

    2005-01-01

    The current trend of industrialization and urbanization in developing nations has a huge impact on anthropogenic and natural ecosystems. Pollution sources increase with the expansion of cities and cause contamination of water, air and soil. The absence of urban environmental planning and management strategies has resulted in greater concern for future urban development. This paper advocates the adoption of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) as a means to achieve sustainable development in developing countries. It investigates project-level environmental impact assessment (EIA) and its limitations. The exploration of SEA and its features are addressed. The effective implementation of SEA can create a roadmap for sustainable development. In many developing countries, the lack of transparency and accountability and ineffective public participation in the development of the policy, plan and program (PPP) would be mitigated by the SEA process. Moreover, the proactive and broadly based characteristics of SEA would benefit the institutional development of the PPP process, which is rarely experienced in many developing countries. The paper also explores the prospects for SEA and its guiding principles in developing countries. Finally, the paper calls for a coordinated effort between all government, nongovernment and international organizations involved with PPPs to enable developing countries to pursue a path of sustainable development through the development and application of strategic environmental assessment

  16. Assessment and intercomparison of numerical simulations in the Western Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juza, Mélanie; Mourre, Baptiste; Renault, Lionel; Tintoré, Joaquin

    2014-05-01

    The Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System (SOCIB, www.socib.es) is developing high resolution numerical simulations (hindcasts and forecasts) in the Western Mediterranean Sea (WMOP). WMOP uses a regional configuration of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS, Shchepetkin and McWilliams, 2005) with a high spatial resolution of 1/50º (1.5-2km). Thus, theses simulations are able to reproduce mesoscale and in some cases sub-mesoscale features that are key in the Mediterranean Sea since they interact and modify the basin and sub-basin circulation. These simulations are initialized from and nested in either the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS, 1/16º) or Mercator-Océan simulations (MERCATOR, 1/12º). A repeated glider section in the Ibiza Channel, operated by SOCIB, has revealed significant differences between two WMOP simulations using either MFS or MERCATOR (hereafter WMOP-MFS and WMOP-MERC). In this study, MFS, MERCATOR, WMOP-MFS and WMOP-MERC are compared and evaluated using available multi-platform observations such as satellite products (Sea Level Anomaly, Sea Surface Temperature) and in situ measurements (temperature and salinity profiles from Argo floats, CTD, XBT, fixed moorings and gliders; velocity fields from HF radar and currentmeters). A quantitative comparison is necessary to evaluate the capacity of the simulations to reproduce observed ocean features, and to quantify the possible simulations biases. This will in turn allow to improve the simulations, so as to produce better ocean forecast systems, to study and better understand ocean processes and to address climate studies. Therefore, various statistical diagnostics have been developed to assess and intercompare the simulations at various spatial and temporal scales, in different sub-regions (Alboran Sea, Western and Eastern Algerian sub-basins, Balearic Sea, Gulf of Lion), in different dynamical zones (coastal areas, shelves and "open" sea), along key sections (Ibiza and

  17. Bangladesh Delta: Assessment of the Causes of Sea-level Rise Hazards and Integrated Development of Predictive Modeling Towards Mitigation and Adaptation (BanD-AID)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusche, J.; Shum, C. K.; Jenkins, C. J.; Chen, J.; Guo, J.; Hossain, F.; Braun, B.; Calmant, S.; Ballu, V.; Papa, F.; Kuhn, M.; Ahmed, R.; Khan, Z. H.; Hossain, M.; Bernzen, A.; Dai, C.; Jia, Y.; Krien, Y.; Kuo, C. Y.; Liibusk, A.; Shang, K.; Testut, L.; Tseng, K. H.; Uebbing, B.; Rietbroek, R.; Valty, P.; Wan, J.

    2016-12-01

    As a low-lying and the largest coastal deltaic region in the world, Bangladesh already faces tremendous vulnerability. Accelerated sea-level rise, along with tectonic, sediment load and groundwater extraction induced land uplift/subsidence, have exacerbated Bangladesh's coastal vulnerability. Climate change has further intensified these risks with increasing temperatures, greater rainfall volatility, and increased incidence of intensified cyclones, in addition to its seasonal transboundary monsoonal flooding. Our Belmont Forum/IGFA G8 project BanD-AiD, http://Belmont-BanDAiD.org, or http://Blemont-SeaLevel.org, comprises of an international cross-disciplinary team including stakeholders in Bangladesh, aims at a joint assessment of the physical and social science knowledge of the physical and social dynamics which govern coastal vulnerability and societal resilience in Bangladesh. We have built a prototype observational system, following the Belmont Challenge identified Earth System Analysis & Prediction System (ESAPS) for the Bangladesh Delta, to achieve the physical science objectives of the project. The prototype observational system is exportable to other regions of the world. We studied the physical causes of relative sea-level rise in coastal Bangladesh, with the goal to separate and quantify land subsidence and geocentric sea-level rise signals at adequate spatial scales using contemporary space geodetic and remote sensing data. We used a social and natural science integrative approach to investigate the various social and economic drivers behind land use change, population increase migration and community resilience to understand the social dynamics of this complex region and to forecast likely and alternative scenarios for maintaining the societal resilience of this vital region which currently houses a quarter of Bangladesh's 160 million people.

  18. "Crystals within Crystals: The Story of Sea Ice". A Classroom-Based Outreach Project Communicating Cutting-Edge Ocean Science to School Pupils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, B.

    2016-02-01

    'Crystals within Crystals: The story of sea ice' is a UK based outreach project based that uses a range practical tools to engage school students with cutting edge scientific research that relates to the use of some of the world's most powerful X-rays in sea ice research. The project is delivered in the form of a classroom workshop that first introduces school pupils (aged 11-14) to seawater and the salts that give it a salinity. The pupils are then shown how the presence of salts within seawater results in very important physical changes when the liquid freezes, which includes different structural and optical properties of the ice. The properties of the ice are then linked to the presence of countless microscopic salt crystals that are trapped within the microstructure of the frozen seawater, which is explained with use of a novel crystal growth demonstration. Given that there is currently no way of successfully removing these salt crystals from the ice, the workshop culminates in explaining how some of the worlds most powerful X-rays can be used to investigate processes that otherwise remain elusive. The workshop introduces students to the fundamental principles of scientific enquiry, the sea ice environment, and the power of X-rays in investigating the properties of crystals. Here we present information that outlines a host of practical and project management tools that are applicacble to outreach projects in the the field of ocean sciences, with the aim of seeding ideas and interest for other graduate student to enage with the public during their studies.

  19. Education and Raising Awareness of Seismic Risk in the Black Sea Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florin Balan, Stefan; Alcaz, Vasile; Trifonova, Petya; Uker, Nalan; Tataru, Dragos

    2014-05-01

    The Project "Black Sea Earthquake Safety Net(work)" ESNET has the intention to educate and raise awareness of seismic risk in the Black Sea Basin in four countries: Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. The project is financed through "The Black Sea Basin Joint Operational Programme", an EU operational programmes under European Neighborhood & Partnership Instrument (ENPI). The programme is financed by ENPI. The participation of Turkey is financed by Instrument for Pre-accession Assistance. It is implemented during the period 2007 - 2013. The project wants to contribute to the prevention of natural disasters generated by earthquakes in Black Sea Basin by developing a joint monitoring and intervention concept. All the countries involved in the project have their own studies, strategies, prevention and intervention systems in case of earthquakes, but until now there has not been an integrated approach so far in the Black Sea Basin. Given the cross-border character of seismic activity, it is necessary to have a cross-border approach on prevention, monitoring and intervention in case of earthquakes. Main objectives : 1. The assessment of the disaster potential, with accent on the seismic risk degree and the earthquakes effects in the intervention area. For achieving the main objective is to have an accurate and up-to-date assessment of the potential of disasters provoked by earthquakes in the project area/regions. This assessment will be carried out at national level and will be used in designing the common concept/approach for dealing with earthquakes at regional level, thus ensuring the cross-border character of the objective. 2.To develop an integrated seismic monitoring and intervention concept. This integrated concept, built on the basis of the previous objective, will have a cross-border relevance and is at the core of the action. The monitoring and intervention in case of earthquakes will be coordinated among the participating countries based on this, thus a

  20. Project Spectrum: An Innovative Assessment Alternative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krechevsky, Mara

    1991-01-01

    Project Spectrum attempts to reconceptualize the traditional linguistic and logical/mathematical bases of intelligence. Spectrum blurs the line between curriculum and assessment, embeds assessment in meaningful, real-world activities, uses "intelligence-fair" measures, emphasizes children's strengths, and recognizes the stylistic…

  1. Risk assessment for construction projects of transport infrastructure objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titarenko, Boris

    2017-10-01

    The paper analyzes and compares different methods of risk assessment for construction projects of transport objects. The management of such type of projects demands application of special probabilistic methods due to large level of uncertainty of their implementation. Risk management in the projects requires the use of probabilistic and statistical methods. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for using traditional methods in combination with robust methods that allow obtaining reliable risk assessments in projects. The robust approach is based on the principle of maximum likelihood and in assessing the risk allows the researcher to obtain reliable results in situations of great uncertainty. The application of robust procedures allows to carry out a quantitative assessment of the main risk indicators of projects when solving the tasks of managing innovation-investment projects. Calculation of damage from the onset of a risky event is possible by any competent specialist. And an assessment of the probability of occurrence of a risky event requires the involvement of special probabilistic methods based on the proposed robust approaches. Practice shows the effectiveness and reliability of results. The methodology developed in the article can be used to create information technologies and their application in automated control systems for complex projects.

  2. Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice predictability in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-Y. Yang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the ability of coupled global climate models to predict decadal variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. We analyze decadal hindcasts/predictions of 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 models. Decadal hindcasts exhibit a large multi-model spread in the simulated sea ice extent, with some models deviating significantly from the observations as the predicted ice extent quickly drifts away from the initial constraint. The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, for most models, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Sea ice extent in the North Pacific has better predictive skill than that in the North Atlantic (particularly at a lead time of 3–7 years, but there is a re-emerging predictive skill in the North Atlantic at a lead time of 6–8 years. In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any timescales, and there is no obvious improvement linking the areal extent of significant predictive skill to lead time increase. This might be because nearly all the models predict a retreating Antarctic sea ice cover, opposite to the observations. For the Arctic, the predictive skill of the multi-model ensemble mean outperforms most models and the persistence prediction at longer timescales, which is not the case for the Antarctic. Overall, for the Arctic, initialized decadal hindcasts show improved predictive skill compared to uninitialized simulations, although this improvement is not present in the Antarctic.

  3. 16 MW under the seas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mary, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    This article presents the Nemo project (Nemo stands for New Energy for Martinique and Overseas) and its precursor project, Ner 300, developed in cooperation between Akuo Energy and DCNS, and which is financed by the European Bank for Investment. These projects aim at exploiting sea thermal energy. Ner 300 will exploit the 20 degree difference between surface waters (25 C) and deep waters (5 C at 1.000 m under sea level). The article evokes works performed by DCNS to develop a prototype near the Reunion Island. The principle and operation are briefly described, and technological challenges are outlined

  4. Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka

    2017-01-18

    Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (sea level extremes, up to 50% in low-tidal basins. The intensity of these oscillations is zonally correlated with mid-tropospheric winds at the 99% significance level, with the variance doubling from the tropics and subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Specific atmospheric patterns are found during strong events at selected locations in the World Ocean, indicating a globally predominant generation mechanism. Our analysis suggests that these oscillations should be considered in sea level hazard assessment studies. Establishing a strong correlation between nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates.

  5. Mongolia wind resource assessment project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliott, D.; Chadraa, B.; Natsagdorj, L.

    1998-01-01

    The development of detailed, regional wind-resource distributions and other pertinent wind resource characteristics (e.g., assessment maps and reliable estimates of seasonal, diurnal, and directional) is an important step in planning and accelerating the deployment of wind energy systems. This paper summarizes the approach and methods being used to conduct a wind energy resource assessment of Mongolia. The primary goals of this project are to develop a comprehensive wind energy resource atlas of Mongolia and to establish a wind measurement program in specific regions of Mongolia to identify prospective sites for wind energy projects and to help validate some of the wind resource estimates. The Mongolian wind resource atlas will include detailed, computerized wind power maps and other valuable wind resource characteristic information for the different regions of Mongolia

  6. Baltic Sea Maritime Spatial Planning for Sustainable Ecosystem Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henning Sten; Schrøder, Anne Lise

    2017-01-01

    in the marine and maritime sectors with great potential for innovation and economic growth. Holistic spatial planning systems supporting sustainable development have proved themselves in terrestrial planning and are also needed at sea. Due to this reason, the BONUS BASMATI project is based on the ecosystem...... services approach to assist in assessing sustainable solutions corresponding to policy goals.......The current and potential use of the seas and oceans is often called the ‘Blue Economy’. Recently, the European Commission launched its Blue Growth Strategy on the opportunities for marine and maritime sustainable growth. The European Commission considers that Blue Growth is a long-term strategy...

  7. Discussion on the post-project assessment of environmental impact for nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shang Zhaorong

    2013-01-01

    The paper introduces the background of post-project assessment of environmental impact in the world and focuses on the characteristic of environmental impact assessment for Chinese nuclear facilities construction projects, analyzes the necessity, principle and contents of post-project assessment of environmental impact on current Chinese nuclear facilities operation. It is considered that to start the post-project assessment of environmental impact, perfect the post-project assessment mechanism, introduce the post-project assessment into environmental impact assessment system are just at the night time. (author)

  8. Combining telephone surveys and fishing catches self-report: the French sea bass recreational fishery assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocklin, Delphine; Levrel, Harold; Drogou, Mickaël; Herfaut, Johanna; Veron, Gérard

    2014-01-01

    Fisheries statistics are known to be underestimated, since they are mainly based on information about commercial fisheries. However, various types of fishing activities exist and evaluating them is necessary for implementing effective management plans. This paper assesses the characteristics and catches of the French European sea bass recreational fishery along the Atlantic coasts, through the combination of large-scale telephone surveys and fishing diaries study. Our results demonstrated that half of the total catches (mainly small fish) were released at sea and that the mean length of a kept sea bass was 46.6 cm. We highlighted different patterns of fishing methods and type of gear used. Catches from boats were greater than from the shore, both in abundance and biomass, considering mean values per fishing trip as well as CPUE. Spearfishers caught the highest biomass of sea bass per fishing trip, but the fishing rod with lure was the most effective type of gear in terms of CPUE. Longlines had the highest CPUE value in abundance but not in biomass: they caught numerous but small sea bass. Handlines were less effective, catching few sea bass in both abundance and biomass. We estimated that the annual total recreational sea bass catches was 3,173 tonnes of which 2,345 tonnes were kept. Since the annual commercial catches landings were evaluated at 5,160 tonnes, recreational landings represent 30% of the total fishing catches on the Atlantic coasts of France. Using fishers' self-reports was a valuable way to obtain new information on data-poor fisheries. Our results underline the importance of evaluating recreational fishing as a part of the total amount of fisheries catches. More studies are critically needed to assess overall fish resources caught in order to develop effective fishery management tools.

  9. Combining telephone surveys and fishing catches self-report: the French sea bass recreational fishery assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delphine Rocklin

    Full Text Available Fisheries statistics are known to be underestimated, since they are mainly based on information about commercial fisheries. However, various types of fishing activities exist and evaluating them is necessary for implementing effective management plans. This paper assesses the characteristics and catches of the French European sea bass recreational fishery along the Atlantic coasts, through the combination of large-scale telephone surveys and fishing diaries study. Our results demonstrated that half of the total catches (mainly small fish were released at sea and that the mean length of a kept sea bass was 46.6 cm. We highlighted different patterns of fishing methods and type of gear used. Catches from boats were greater than from the shore, both in abundance and biomass, considering mean values per fishing trip as well as CPUE. Spearfishers caught the highest biomass of sea bass per fishing trip, but the fishing rod with lure was the most effective type of gear in terms of CPUE. Longlines had the highest CPUE value in abundance but not in biomass: they caught numerous but small sea bass. Handlines were less effective, catching few sea bass in both abundance and biomass. We estimated that the annual total recreational sea bass catches was 3,173 tonnes of which 2,345 tonnes were kept. Since the annual commercial catches landings were evaluated at 5,160 tonnes, recreational landings represent 30% of the total fishing catches on the Atlantic coasts of France. Using fishers' self-reports was a valuable way to obtain new information on data-poor fisheries. Our results underline the importance of evaluating recreational fishing as a part of the total amount of fisheries catches. More studies are critically needed to assess overall fish resources caught in order to develop effective fishery management tools.

  10. Re-initiation of bottom water formation in the East Sea (Japan Sea) in a warming world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Seung-Tae; Chang, Kyung-Il; Nam, SungHyun; Rho, TaeKeun; Kang, Dong-Jin; Lee, Tongsup; Park, Kyung-Ae; Lobanov, Vyacheslav; Kaplunenko, Dmitry; Tishchenko, Pavel; Kim, Kyung-Ryul

    2018-01-25

    The East Sea (Japan Sea), a small marginal sea in the northwestern Pacific, is ventilated deeply down to the bottom and sensitive to changing surface conditions. Addressing the response of this marginal sea to the hydrological cycle and atmospheric forcing would be helpful for better understanding present and future environmental changes in oceans at the global and regional scales. Here, we present an analysis of observations revealing a slowdown of the long-term deepening in water boundaries associated with changes of water formation rate. Our results indicate that bottom (central) water formation has been enhanced (reduced) with more (less) oxygen supply to the bottom (central) layer since the 2000s. This paper presents a new projection that allows a three-layered deep structure, which retains bottom water, at least until 2040, contrasting previous results. This projection considers recent increase of slope convections mainly due to the salt supply via air-sea freshwater exchange and sea ice formation and decrease of open-ocean convections evidenced by reduced mixed layer depth in the northern East Sea, resulting in more bottom water and less central water formations. Such vigorous changes in water formation and ventilation provide certain implications on future climate changes.

  11. Project W-420 Ventilation Stack Monitoring System Year 2000 Compliance Assessment Project Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BUSSELL, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    This assessment describes the potential Year 2000 (Y2K) problems and describes the methods for achieving Y2K Compliance for Project W-420, Ventilation Stack Monitoring Systems Upgrades. The purpose of this assessment is to give an overview of the project. This document will not be updated and any dates contained in this document are estimates and may change. The project work scope includes upgrades to ventilation stacks and generic effluent monitoring systems (GEMS) at the 244-A Double Contained Receiver Tank (DCRT), the 244-BX DCRT, the 244-CR Vault, tanks 241-C-105 and 241-C-106, the 244-S DCRT, and the 244-TX DCRT. A detailed description of system dates, functions, interfaces, potential Y2K problems, and date resolutions can not be described since the project is in the definitive design phase, This assessment will describe the methods, protocols, and practices to ensure that equipment and systems do not have Y2K problems

  12. Observing System Simulation Experiments for the assessment of temperature sampling strategies in the Mediterranean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Raicich

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available For the first time in the Mediterranean Sea various temperature sampling strategies are studied and compared to each other by means of the Observing System Simulation Experiment technique. Their usefulness in the framework of the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS is assessed by quantifying their impact in a Mediterranean General Circulation Model in numerical twin experiments via univariate data assimilation of temperature profiles in summer and winter conditions. Data assimilation is performed by means of the optimal interpolation algorithm implemented in the SOFA (System for Ocean Forecasting and Analysis code. The sampling strategies studied here include various combinations of eXpendable BathyThermograph (XBT profiles collected along Volunteer Observing Ship (VOS tracks, Airborne XBTs (AXBTs and sea surface temperatures. The actual sampling strategy adopted in the MFS Pilot Project during the Targeted Operational Period (TOP, winter-spring 2000 is also studied. The data impact is quantified by the error reduction relative to the free run. The most effective sampling strategies determine 25–40% error reduction, depending on the season, the geographic area and the depth range. A qualitative relationship can be recognized in terms of the spread of information from the data positions, between basin circulation features and spatial patterns of the error reduction fields, as a function of different spatial and seasonal characteristics of the dynamics. The largest error reductions are observed when samplings are characterized by extensive spatial coverages, as in the cases of AXBTs and the combination of XBTs and surface temperatures. The sampling strategy adopted during the TOP is characterized by little impact, as a consequence of a sampling frequency that is too low. Key words. Oceanography: general (marginal and semi-enclosed seas; numerical modelling

  13. Observing System Simulation Experiments for the assessment of temperature sampling strategies in the Mediterranean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Raicich

    Full Text Available For the first time in the Mediterranean Sea various temperature sampling strategies are studied and compared to each other by means of the Observing System Simulation Experiment technique. Their usefulness in the framework of the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS is assessed by quantifying their impact in a Mediterranean General Circulation Model in numerical twin experiments via univariate data assimilation of temperature profiles in summer and winter conditions. Data assimilation is performed by means of the optimal interpolation algorithm implemented in the SOFA (System for Ocean Forecasting and Analysis code. The sampling strategies studied here include various combinations of eXpendable BathyThermograph (XBT profiles collected along Volunteer Observing Ship (VOS tracks, Airborne XBTs (AXBTs and sea surface temperatures. The actual sampling strategy adopted in the MFS Pilot Project during the Targeted Operational Period (TOP, winter-spring 2000 is also studied.

    The data impact is quantified by the error reduction relative to the free run. The most effective sampling strategies determine 25–40% error reduction, depending on the season, the geographic area and the depth range. A qualitative relationship can be recognized in terms of the spread of information from the data positions, between basin circulation features and spatial patterns of the error reduction fields, as a function of different spatial and seasonal characteristics of the dynamics. The largest error reductions are observed when samplings are characterized by extensive spatial coverages, as in the cases of AXBTs and the combination of XBTs and surface temperatures. The sampling strategy adopted during the TOP is characterized by little impact, as a consequence of a sampling frequency that is too low.

    Key words. Oceanography: general (marginal and semi-enclosed seas; numerical modelling

  14. Needs assessment in health research projects: a new approach to project management in iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peykari, Niloofar; Owlia, Parviz; Malekafzali, Hossein; Ghanei, Mostafa; Babamahmoodi, Abdolreza; Djalalinia, Shirin

    2013-01-01

    The science and technology health plan has defined the outline of health research to the national vision of Iran by 2025. The aim of this study was to focus on the process of needs assessment of health research projects also health research priority setting in Iran. THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT LIFE CYCLE HAS FOUR PHASES: Initiation, Planning, Execution and Closure. Based on abovementioned points we conducted the study. Focusing on the needs assessment led to systematic implementation of needs assessment of health project in all of the medical sciences universities. Parallel with this achieved strategies health research priority setting was followed through specific process from empowerment to implementation. We should adopt with more systematic progressive methods of health project managements for both our national convenience as well as our international health research programs.

  15. Indicators and SEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, Jingjing; Kørnøv, Lone; Christensen, Per

    Abstract: Indicators are widely used in SEA to measure, communicate and monitor impacts from a proposed policy, plan or programme, and can improve the effectiveness for the SEA by simplifying the complexity of both assessment and presentation. Indicators can be seen as part of the implementation...... and if the information requirement for different target groups is not addressed. Indicators are widely used in SEA to measure, communicate and monitor impacts from a proposed policy, plan or programme, and can improve the effectiveness for the SEA by simplifying the complexity of both assessment and presentation...... process helping to understand, communicate and, integrate important environmental issues in planning and decision-making. On the other hand, use of indicators can also limit SEA effectiveness, if the ones chosen are biased or limited, if the aggregation gives incorrect interpretation...

  16. Assessing corporate project impacts in changeable contexts: A human rights perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salcito, Kendyl, E-mail: kendyl.salcito@unibas.ch [Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002 Basel (Switzerland); University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003 Basel (Switzerland); NomoGaia, 1900 Wazee Street, Suite 303, Denver, CO 80202 (United States); NewFields, LLC, Denver, CO 80202 (United States); Singer, Burton H., E-mail: bhsinger@epi.ufl.edu [Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610 (United States); Krieger, Gary R., E-mail: gkrieger@newfields.com [NewFields, LLC, Denver, CO 80202 (United States); Weiss, Mitchell G., E-mail: mitchell-g.weiss@unibas.ch [Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002 Basel (Switzerland); University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003 Basel (Switzerland); Wielga, Mark, E-mail: wielga@nomogaia.org [NomoGaia, 1900 Wazee Street, Suite 303, Denver, CO 80202 (United States); NewFields, LLC, Denver, CO 80202 (United States); Utzinger, Jürg, E-mail: juerg.utzinger@unibas.ch [Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002 Basel (Switzerland); University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003 Basel (Switzerland)

    2014-07-01

    Project-level impact assessment was originally conceived as a snapshot taken in advance of project implementation, contrasting current conditions with a likely future scenario involving a variety of predicted impacts. Current best practice guidance has encouraged a shift towards longitudinal assessments from the pre-project stage through the implementation and operating phases. Experience and study show, however, that assessment of infrastructure-intensive projects rarely endures past the project's construction phase. Negative consequences for environmental, social and health outcomes have been documented. Such consequences clarify the pressing need for longitudinal assessment in each of these domains, with human rights impact assessment (HRIA) as an umbrella over, and critical augmentation of, environmental, social and health assessments. Project impacts on human rights are more closely linked to political, economic and other factors beyond immediate effects of a company's policy and action throughout the project lifecycle. Delineating these processes requires an adequate framework, with strategies for collecting longitudinal data, protocols that provide core information for impact assessment and guidance for adaptive mitigation strategies as project-related effects change over time. This article presents general principles for the design and implementation of sustained, longitudinal HRIA, based on experience assessing and responding to human rights impact in a uranium mining project in Malawi. The case study demonstrates the value of longitudinal assessment both for limiting corporate risk and improving human welfare. - Graphical abstract: Assessing changes in human rights condition as affected by both project and context, over time. - Highlights: • Corporate capital projects affect human rights in myriad ways. • Ongoing, longitudinal impact assessment techniques are needed. • We present an approach for conducting longitudinal human rights impact

  17. Assessing corporate project impacts in changeable contexts: A human rights perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salcito, Kendyl; Singer, Burton H.; Krieger, Gary R.; Weiss, Mitchell G.; Wielga, Mark; Utzinger, Jürg

    2014-01-01

    Project-level impact assessment was originally conceived as a snapshot taken in advance of project implementation, contrasting current conditions with a likely future scenario involving a variety of predicted impacts. Current best practice guidance has encouraged a shift towards longitudinal assessments from the pre-project stage through the implementation and operating phases. Experience and study show, however, that assessment of infrastructure-intensive projects rarely endures past the project's construction phase. Negative consequences for environmental, social and health outcomes have been documented. Such consequences clarify the pressing need for longitudinal assessment in each of these domains, with human rights impact assessment (HRIA) as an umbrella over, and critical augmentation of, environmental, social and health assessments. Project impacts on human rights are more closely linked to political, economic and other factors beyond immediate effects of a company's policy and action throughout the project lifecycle. Delineating these processes requires an adequate framework, with strategies for collecting longitudinal data, protocols that provide core information for impact assessment and guidance for adaptive mitigation strategies as project-related effects change over time. This article presents general principles for the design and implementation of sustained, longitudinal HRIA, based on experience assessing and responding to human rights impact in a uranium mining project in Malawi. The case study demonstrates the value of longitudinal assessment both for limiting corporate risk and improving human welfare. - Graphical abstract: Assessing changes in human rights condition as affected by both project and context, over time. - Highlights: • Corporate capital projects affect human rights in myriad ways. • Ongoing, longitudinal impact assessment techniques are needed. • We present an approach for conducting longitudinal human rights impact assessment

  18. Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of the Red Sea Basin Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey estimated mean volumes of 5 billion barrels of undiscovered technically recoverable oil and 112 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas in the Red Sea Basin Province using a geology-based assessment methodology.

  19. Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takekawa, John Y.; Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Spragens, Kyle A.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The International Panel on Climate Change has identified coastal ecosystems as areas that will be disproportionally affected by climate change. Current sea-level rise projections range widely with 0.57 to 1.9 meters increase in mea sea level by 2100. The expected accelerated rate of sea-level rise through the 21st century will put many coastal ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas. We assessed marsh accretion and plant community state changes through 2100 at 12 tidal salt marshes around San Francisco Bay estuary with a sea-level rise response model. Detailed ground elevation, vegetation, and water level data were collected at all sites between 2008 and 2011 and used as model inputs. Sediment cores (taken by Callaway and others, 2012) at four sites around San Francisco Bay estuary were used to estimate accretion rates. A modification of the Callaway and others (1996) model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), was utilized to run sea-level rise response models for all sites. With a mean sea level rise of 1.24 m by 2100, WARMER projected that the vast majority, 95.8 percent (1,942 hectares), of marsh area in our study will lose marsh plant communities by 2100 and to transition to a relative elevation range consistent with mudflat habitat. Three marshes were projected to maintain marsh vegetation to 2100, but they only composed 4.2 percent (85 hectares) of the total marsh area surveyed.

  20. Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nerem, R S; Beckley, B D; Fasullo, J T; Hamlington, B D; Masters, D; Mitchum, G T

    2018-02-27

    Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y 2 Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  1. Projections of tsunami inundation area coupled with impacts of sea level rise in Banda Aceh, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tursina, Syamsidik, Kato, Shigeru

    2017-10-01

    In a long term, sea level rise is anticipated to give devastating effects on Banda Aceh, as one of the coastal cities in the northern tip of Sumatra. The growth of the population and buildings in the city has come to the stage where the coastal area is vulnerable to any coastal hazard. Some public facilities and settlements have been constructed and keep expanding in the future. According to TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite images, 7 mm/year the sea level has been risen between 1992 and 2015 in this area. It is estimated that in the next 100 years, there will be 700 mm additional sea level rise which will give a setback more over to a rather flat area around the coast. This research is aim at investigating the influence of sea level rise toward the tsunami inundation on the land area particularly the impacts on Banda Aceh city. Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) simulation numerically generated tsunami propagation. Topography and bathymetry data were collected from GEBCO and updated with the available nautical chart (DISHIDROS, JICA, and field measurements). Geological movement of the underwater fault was generated using Piatanesi and Lorito of 9.15 Mw 2004 multi-fault scenario. The inundation area produced by COMCOT revealed that the inundation area was expanded to several hundred meters from the shoreline. To investigate the impacts of tsunami wave on Banda Aceh, the inundation area were digitized and analyzed with Quantum GIS spatial tools. The Quantum GIS analyzed inundations area affected by the projected tsunami. It will give a new tsunami-prone coastal area map induced by sea level rise in 100 years.

  2. HET/JUPITER project assessment report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baxter, B.J.; Harrington, F.E.; Kaiser, G.G.; Wolf, J.

    1979-05-01

    This report is an assessment of the United States' Hot Engineering Test (HET) and the Federal Republic of Germany's Juelich Pilot Plant Thorium Element Reprocessing (JUPITER) Projects. The assessment was conducted with a view to developing mutually supportive roles in the achievement of hot engineering test objectives. Conclusions of the assessment are positive and identify several technical areas with potential for US/FRG cooperation. Recommendations presented in this report support a cost-effective US/FRG program to jointly develop high temperature gas-cooled reactor fuel recycle technology. (orig.) [de

  3. IInvestigations of space-time variability of the sea level in the Barents Sea and the White Sea by satellite altimetry data and results of hydrodynamic modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebedev, S. A.; Zilberstein, O. I.; Popov, S. K.; Tikhonova, O. V.

    2003-04-01

    The problem of retrieving of the sea level anomalies in the Barents and White Seas from satellite can be considered as two different problems. The first one is to calculate the anomalies of sea level along the trek taking into account all amendments including tidal heights. The second one is to obtain of fields of the sea level anomalies on the grid over one cycle of the exact repeat altimetry mission. Experience results show that there is preferable to use the regional tidal model for calculating tidal heights. To construct of the anomalies fields of the sea level during the exact repeat mission (cycle 35 days for ERS-1 and ERS-2), when a density of the coverage of the area of water of the Barents and White Seas by satellite measurements achieves maximum. It is necessary to solve the problem of the error minimum. This error is based by the temporal difference of the measurements over one cycle and by the specific of the hydrodynamic regime of the both seas (tidal, storm surge variations, tidal currents). To solve this problem it is assumed to use the results of the hydrodynamic modeling. The error minimum is preformed by the regression of the model results and satellite measurements. As a version it is considered the possibility of the utilizing of the neuronet obtained by the model results to construct maps of the sea level anomalies. The comparison of the model results and the calculation of the satellite altimetry variability of the sea level of Barents and White Seas shows a good coincidence between them. The satellite altimetry data of ERS-1/2 and TOPEX/POSEIDON of Ocean Altimeter Pathfinder Project (NASA/GSFC) has been used in this study. Results of the regional tidal model computations and three dimensional baroclinic model created in the Hydrometeocenter have been used as well. This study also exploited the atmosphere date of the Project REANALYSIS. The research was undertaken with partial support from the Russian Basic Research Foundation (Project No. 01-07-90106).

  4. BRICK v0.2, a simple, accessible, and transparent model framework for climate and regional sea-level projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. E. Wong

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Simple models can play pivotal roles in the quantification and framing of uncertainties surrounding climate change and sea-level rise. They are computationally efficient, transparent, and easy to reproduce. These qualities also make simple models useful for the characterization of risk. Simple model codes are increasingly distributed as open source, as well as actively shared and guided. Alas, computer codes used in the geosciences can often be hard to access, run, modify (e.g., with regards to assumptions and model components, and review. Here, we describe the simple model framework BRICK (Building blocks for Relevant Ice and Climate Knowledge v0.2 and its underlying design principles. The paper adds detail to an earlier published model setup and discusses the inclusion of a land water storage component. The framework largely builds on existing models and allows for projections of global mean temperature as well as regional sea levels and coastal flood risk. BRICK is written in R and Fortran. BRICK gives special attention to the model values of transparency, accessibility, and flexibility in order to mitigate the above-mentioned issues while maintaining a high degree of computational efficiency. We demonstrate the flexibility of this framework through simple model intercomparison experiments. Furthermore, we demonstrate that BRICK is suitable for risk assessment applications by using a didactic example in local flood risk management.

  5. Assessing Confidence in Pliocene Sea Surface Temperatures to Evaluate Predictive Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling. M.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; hide

    2012-01-01

    In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.33.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history.This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

  6. Data from renewable energy assessments for resort islands in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basir Khan, M. Reyasudin; Jidin, Razali; Pasupuleti, Jagadeesh

    2015-01-01

    Renewable energy assessments for resort islands in the South China Sea were conducted that involves the collection and analysis of meteorological and topographic data. The meteorological data was used to assess the PV, wind and hydropower system potentials on the islands. Furthermore, the reconnaissance study for hydro-potentials were conducted through topographic maps in order to determine the potential sites suitable for development of run-of-river hydropower generation. The stream data was collected for 14 islands in the South China Sea with a total of 51 investigated sites. The data from this study are related to the research article “Optimal combination of solar, wind, micro-hydro and diesel systems based on actual seasonal load profiles for a resort island in the South China Sea” published in Energy (Khan et al., 2015) [1]. PMID:26779562

  7. Sea-Level Allowances along the World Coastlines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandewal, R.; Tsitsikas, C.; Reerink, T.; Slangen, A.; de Winter, R.; Muis, S.; Hunter, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Sea level changes as a result of climate change. For projections we take ocean mass changes and volume changes into account. Including gravitational and rotational fingerprints this provide regional sea level changes. Hence we can calculate sea-level rise patterns based on CMIP5 projections. In order to take the variability around the mean state, which follows from the climate models, into account we use the concept of allowances. The allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be increased to maintain the likelihood of sea-level extremes. Here we use a global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels based on a global hydrodynamic model in order to calculate allowances. It is shown that the model compares in most regions favourably with tide gauge records from the GESLA data set. Combining the CMIP5 projections and the global hydrodynamical model we calculate sea-level allowances along the global coastlines and expand the number of points with a factor 50 relative to tide gauge based results. Results show that allowances increase gradually along continental margins with largest values near the equator. In general values are lower at midlatitudes both in Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Increased risk for extremes are typically 103-104 for the majority of the coastline under the RCP8.5 scenario at the end of the century. Finally we will show preliminary results of the effect of changing wave heights based on the coordinated ocean wave project.

  8. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  9. Comprehensive assessment of the status scientific and technical projects using Technology Project Readiness Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Petrov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The balanced methodology for assessing the Technology Project Readiness Level for commercialization (TPRL is proposed. TPRL allows to determine the dynamics and balance of development projects that use the standardized approaches used in assessing the readiness of the technology. Validation of the methodology undertaken for the projects of Federal target programs “Research and development on priority directions of development of scientific-technological complex of Russia for 2007–2013” and “Research and development on priority directions of development of scientific-technological complex of Russia for 2014–2020”. The obtained results showed the possibility of application of the methodology for the evaluation of projects, improving efficiency of expert activity in the evaluation of projects, monitoring the status of individual project and group of projects (portfolio. The application of the methodology allowed us to improve the management of individual project and portfolio of projects.Methodology TPRL will allow the implementers, industry partners, investors, and innovative industrial companies to improve the efficiency of its activities.

  10. NNP-LANL Utilities - Condition Assessment and Project Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stewart, Grant Lorenz [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-11-21

    This report is a presentation on LANL Utilities & Transportation Asset Management; Utility Assets Overview; Condition Assessment; Utilities Project Nominations & Ranking; and Utilities Project Execution.

  11. Towards e-Government project assessment: European approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Mates

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to analyse current approaches to the assessment of e-Government projects as the specifi c public projects and to suggest how to improve these approaches in order to eliminate their shortcomings. The nonnormative theoretical methods are used to analyse empirical results of previous researches; particularly the deduction method is used to prove that current approaches to the evaluation of e-Government projects have some inequalities, the analogy and comparison methods are used to create general typology of e-Government projects and the induction method is used to seek examples of the indicators and metrics. The results are based on analysis of extensive amount of e-Government projects, which have been realized in different European countries in the past twenty years. The basic result of the research is creation of the ten most common types of e-Government projects typology. The fundamental conclusion obtained from the results of this research is that this typology can be used as the core of new E-Government General Assessment Framework, which eliminates problems of previous approaches, allows adjusting metrics and indicators to each type of projects, keeps comparability of results and thus making possible the use of benchmarking methods.

  12. Strategic environmental assessment for energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jay, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    Amongst the approaches that have developed to improve environmental protection within the energy sector, strategic environmental assessment (SEA) has received relatively little attention. This is despite its potential to overcome some of the shortcomings associated with project-level assessment by intervening at higher levels of energy system planning. In this article, a review is presented of the extent to which SEA has been adopted and otherwise promoted in strategic energy planning processes in a wide range of countries throughout the world (with an emphasis on European Union nations). In this regard, the growing importance of regulatory compliance is underlined, especially within the EU, with a particular focus upon the application of SEA to grid systems. The case of the Belgian transmission system is described, illustrating a proactive approach to SEA. But the difficulties inherent in introducing SEA to an increasingly fragmented and liberalised sector are also drawn out, leading to suggestions by which these difficulties may be addressed.

  13. Barents Sea Monitoring with a SEA EXPLORER Glider

    OpenAIRE

    Field, Michael; Béguery, Laurent; Oziel, Laurent; Gascard, Jean-Claude

    2015-01-01

    International audience; The use of gliders in the Polar Regions offers clever and inexpensive methods for large scale monitoring and exploration. In August and September of 2014, a SEA EXPLORER glider successfully completed a 388 km mission in the central Barents Sea to monitor the physical and biological features over a transect between 72° 30' N and 74° 30' N latitude and between 32° E and 33° E longitude, as part of the European FP7 ACCESS project and in cooperation with the Institute of M...

  14. Tradeoff between assessment and control of aquatic invasive species: A case study of sea lamprey management in the St. Marys River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Jason M.; Wilberg, Michael J.; Adams, Jean V.; Jones, Michael L.

    2016-01-01

    Allocating resources between the gathering of information to guide management actions and implementing those actions presents an inherent tradeoff. This tradeoff is evident for control of the Sea Lamprey Petromyzon marinus in the St. Marys River, connecting Lakes Huron and Superior and a major source of parasitic Sea Lampreys to Lake Huron and northern Lake Michigan. Larval Sea Lampreys in the St. Marys River are controlled through the application of Bayluscide, which is applied to areas of high larval density. Bayluscide applications are guided with an annual deepwater electrofishing survey to estimate larval Sea Lamprey density at relatively fine spatial scales. We took a resampling approach to describe the effect of sampling intensity on the success of the larval Sea Lamprey management program and explicitly incorporated the economic tradeoff between assessment and control efforts to maximize numbers of larvae killed in the St. Marys River. When no tradeoff between assessment and control was incorporated, increasing assessment always led to more larvae killed for the same treatment budget. When the tradeoff was incorporated, the sampling intensity that maximized the number of larvae killed depended on the overall budget available. Increased sampling intensities maximized effectiveness under medium to large budgets (US \\$0.4 to \\$2.0 million), and intermediate sampling intensities maximized effectiveness under low budgets. Sea Lamprey control actions based on assessment information outperformed those that were implemented with no assessment under all budget scenarios.

  15. A new paradigm for Environmental Assessment (EA) in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Young-Il; Glasson, John

    2010-01-01

    Over the last 30 years, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) in Korea has played an important role in decision-making processes particularly for environmentally sensitive projects. However, the EIA system alone has sometimes not been effective enough to ensure the successful resolution of environmental concerns. In order to compensate for the limitations of the EIA system, a new assessment system called Prior Environmental Review System (PERS), which is relevant to Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) in some aspects, was introduced in 1993. PERS aims to balance development and preservation by identifying possible environmental impacts of some administrative plans mainly related to development projects in the early stages of planning. However, PERS still appeared to have some weak points such as a limited range of subjects to be assessed, and weakness of tiering (or vertical integration) from PERS to EIA. Therefore, the necessity for reform of the Korean Environmental Assessment (EA) system, including PERS, was raised. In response, the Korean government sought to establish its policy direction for implementing SEA by enhancing the objectivity and expertise of PERS. The policy was approved by the National Assembly in May 2005, and went into effect in June 2006. The introduction of SEA, by enhancing PERS, provides a framework for a system of EA from the strategic level, including PPPs, to the project level. Yet, despite such improvements, some managerial and technical problems associated with subsequent EA implementation remain. This paper critically reviews the evolution of the EA system in Korea and suggests essential improvements for the current EA system based on experiences of implementation of both EIA and SEA since June 2006, in the context of international good practice.

  16. An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legeais, Jean-François; Ablain, Michaël; Zawadzki, Lionel; Zuo, Hao; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Scharffenberg, Martin G.; Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Joana Fernandes, M.; Baltazar Andersen, Ole; Rudenko, Sergei; Cipollini, Paolo; Quartly, Graham D.; Passaro, Marcello; Cazenave, Anny; Benveniste, Jérôme

    2018-02-01

    Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change since it integrates the impacts of ocean warming and ice mass loss from glaciers and the ice sheets. Sea level has been listed as an essential climate variable (ECV) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). During the past 25 years, the sea level ECV has been measured from space by different altimetry missions that have provided global and regional observations of sea level variations. As part of the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) (established in 2010), the Sea Level project (SL_cci) aimed to provide an accurate and homogeneous long-term satellite-based sea level record. At the end of the first phase of the project (2010-2013), an initial version (v1.1) of the sea level ECV was made available to users (Ablain et al., 2015). During the second phase of the project (2014-2017), improved altimeter standards were selected to produce new sea level products (called SL_cci v2.0) based on nine altimeter missions for the period 1993-2015 (https://doi.org/10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2015-v_2.0-201612; Legeais and the ESA SL_cci team, 2016c). Corresponding orbit solutions, geophysical corrections and altimeter standards used in this v2.0 dataset are described in detail in Quartly et al. (2017). The present paper focuses on the description of the SL_cci v2.0 ECV and associated uncertainty and discusses how it has been validated. Various approaches have been used for the quality assessment such as internal validation, comparisons with sea level records from other groups and with in situ measurements, sea level budget closure analyses and comparisons with model outputs. Compared with the previous version of the sea level ECV, we show that use of improved geophysical corrections, careful bias reduction between missions and inclusion of new altimeter missions lead to improved sea level products with reduced uncertainties on different spatial and temporal scales. However, there

  17. Methodological challenges in assessing the environmental status of a marine ecosystem: case study of the Baltic Sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henn Ojaveer

    Full Text Available Assessments of the environmental status of marine ecosystems are increasingly needed to inform management decisions and regulate human pressures to meet the objectives of environmental policies. This paper addresses some generic methodological challenges and related uncertainties involved in marine ecosystem assessment, using the central Baltic Sea as a case study. The objectives of good environmental status of the Baltic Sea are largely focusing on biodiversity, eutrophication and hazardous substances. In this paper, we conduct comparative evaluations of the status of these three segments, by applying different methodological approaches. Our analyses indicate that the assessment results are sensitive to a selection of indicators for ecological quality objectives that are affected by a broad spectrum of human activities and natural processes (biodiversity, less so for objectives that are influenced by a relatively narrow array of drivers (eutrophications, hazardous substances. The choice of indicator aggregation rule appeared to be of essential importance for assessment results for all three segments, whereas the hierarchical structure of indicators had only a minor influence. Trend-based assessment was shown to be a useful supplement to reference-based evaluation, being independent of the problems related to defining reference values and indicator aggregation methodologies. Results of this study will help in setting priorities for future efforts to improve environmental assessments in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere, and to ensure the transparency of the assessment procedure.

  18. Two centuries of extreme events over the Baltic Sea and North Sea regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stendel, Martin; den Besselaar Else, van; Abdel, Hannachi; Jaak, Jaagus; Elizabeth, Kent; Christiana, Lefebvre; Gudrun, Rosenhagen; Anna, Rutgersson; Frederik, Schenk; der Schrier Gerard, van; Tim, Woolings

    2017-04-01

    Two centuries of extreme events over the Baltic Sea and North Sea regions In the framework of the BACC 2 (for the Baltic Sea) and NOSCCA projects (for the North Sea region), studies of past and present variability and changes in atmospheric variables within the North Sea region over the instrumental period (roughly the past 200 years) have been investigated. Findings on trends in temperature and precipitation have already been presented. Here we focus on data homogeneity issues and examine how reliable reanalyses are in this context. Unlike most other regions in the world, there is a wealth of old observations available for the Baltic and North Sea regions, most of it in handwritten form in meteorological journals and other publications. These datasets need to be carefully digitised and homogenized. For this, a thorough quality control must be applied; otherwise the digitised datasets may prove useless or even counterproductive. We present evidence that this step cannot be conducted without human interference and thus cannot be fully automated. Furthermore, inhomogeneities due to e.g. instrumentation and station relocations need to be addressed. A wealth of reanalysis products is available, which can help detect such inhomogeneities in observed time series, but at the same time are prone to biases and/or spurious trends themselves e.g. introduced by changes in the availability and quality of the underlying assimilated data. It therefore in general remains unclear in how far we can simulate the pre-satellite era with respect to homogeneity with reanalyses based only on parts of the observing system. Extreme events and changes in extreme situations are more important and of greater (societal) significance than changes in mean climate. However, changes in extreme weather events are difficult to assess not only because they are, per definition, rare events, but also due to the homogeneity issues outlined above. Taking these into account, we present evidence for changes

  19. Assessment of Hammocks (Petenes) Resilience to Sea Level Rise Due to Climate Change in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posada Vanegas, Gregorio; de Jong, Bernardus H. J.

    2016-01-01

    There is a pressing need to assess resilience of coastal ecosystems against sea level rise. To develop appropriate response strategies against future climate disturbances, it is important to estimate the magnitude of disturbances that these ecosystems can absorb and to better understand their underlying processes. Hammocks (petenes) coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to sea level rise linked to climate change; their vulnerability is mainly due to its close relation with the sea through underground drainage in predominantly karstic soils. Hammocks are biologically important because of their high diversity and restricted distribution. This study proposes a strategy to assess resilience of this coastal ecosystem when high-precision data are scarce. Approaches and methods used to derive ecological resilience maps of hammocks are described and assessed. Resilience models were built by incorporating and weighting appropriate indicators of persistence to assess hammocks resilience against flooding due to climate change at “Los Petenes Biosphere Reserve”, in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. According to the analysis, 25% of the study area is highly resilient (hot spots), whereas 51% has low resilience (cold spots). The most significant hot spot clusters of resilience were located in areas distant to the coastal zone, with indirect tidal influence, and consisted mostly of hammocks surrounded by basin mangrove and floodplain forest. This study revealed that multi-criteria analysis and the use of GIS for qualitative, semi-quantitative and statistical spatial analyses constitute a powerful tool to develop ecological resilience maps of coastal ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, even when high-precision data are not available. This method can be applied in other sites to help develop resilience analyses and decision-making processes for management and conservation of coastal areas worldwide. PMID:27611802

  20. Assessment of 137Cs and 90Sr Fluxes in the Barents Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matishov, Gennady; Usiagina, Irina; Kasatkina, Nadezhda; Ilin, Gennadii

    2014-05-01

    On the basis of published and own data the annual balance of radionuclide income/outcome was assessed for 137Cs and 90Sr in the Barents Sea for the period from 1950s to the presnt. The scheme of the isotope balance calculation in the Barents Sea included the following processes:atmospheric fallout; river run-off; liquid radioactive wastes releases, income from the Norwegian and the White Seas; outflow to the adjacent areas through the Novaya Zemlya straits and the transects Svalbard-Franz Josef Land and Franz Josef Land-Novaya Zemlya; radioactive decay. According to the multiyear dynamics, the inflow of 137Cs and 90Sr to the Barents Sea was significantly preconditioned by currents from the Norwegian Sea. Three peaks of 137Cs and 90Sr isotope concentrations were registered for the surface waters on the western border of the Barents Sea. The first one was observed in the mid-1960s and was conditioned by testing of nuclear weapons. The increase of isotope concentrations in 1975 and 1980 was preconditioned by the discharge of atomic waste by the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant. Nowadays, after the sewage disposal plant was built, the annual discharge of nuclear waste from Sellafield plant is low. The Norwegian Sea was a major source of 137Cs and 90Sr isotope income into the Barents Sea for the period of 1960-2014. Currently, the transborder transfer of 90Sr and 137Cs from the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea constitutes about 99% of income for each element. Atmospheric precipitation had a major impact in the 1950-1960s after the testing of the nuclear weapons, and in 1986 after the accident at Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station. In 1963, the atmospheric precipitation of 137Cs reached 1050 TBq; and that of 90Sr, 630 TBq. In 1986, a significant amount of 137Cs inflow (up to 1010 TBq/year) was registered. The 137Cs isotope income exceeded the 90Sr income in the 1960s-1980s, and equal amounts penetrated into the Barents Sea from the Norwegian Sea in the 1990s. Before

  1. Development of the Qattara Project, Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    The River Nile, as a huge source of cheap hydroelectric energy, was fully exploited in Egypt upstream of Aswan in 1968 by the construction of the famous Aswan and High Dam Hydroelectric Complex. The growth of demand for electrical power is such that an additional large source of energy is required. The Qattara Project would offer not only an ideal source of low cost power production, but a vital boost for Egypt's national economy. The fundamental idea of the scheme is to channel Mediterranean Sea water into the Qattara Depression, using the difference in levels to produce hydroelectric power. The rate of discharge of sea water into the depression should be equivalent to the rate of evaporation from the lake surface. This situation will arise ten years after starting to fill the lake, when the water has reached a level of 60 m below sea level. The possibility of using PNE to excavate a Mediterranean Sea - Qattara Depression canal was first postulated by the Egyptian Atomic Energy Establishment in 1971. In 1973 a pre-feasibility study was prepared, based on preliminary site investigations performed during the period 1964-1965, namely geological and cartographic surveys, as well as on comparative economic evaluation of various solutions. The study showed clearly that the project including both base-load and peak-load hydroelectric power stations and using nuclear excavation of a canal between the sea and the depression offers a competitive solution for cheap power production. A subsequent feasibility study, which was started in 1975, investigates alternative ways of constructing the canal/tunnel system, using conventional tunnelling and PNE. For the nuclear solution, two cases are considered, one using unlimited yields and another with 150 kt maximum yield. A preliminary assessment of the effects of the explosion and costs of the nuclear component of the project are given. (author)

  2. How strategic environmental assessment can inform lenders about potential environmental risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banhalmi-Zakar, Zsuzsa; Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2015-01-01

    at a time when it can be used as an input to bank lending decisions, which can assist banks in making lending decisions with better environmental outcomes. For these reasons, we argue that in some circumstances, and particularly for project finance transactions, SEA may be a more useful environmental......In this paper, we explore the potential for strategic environmental assessment (SEA) to be a useful tool for banks to manage environmental risks and inform lending decisions. SEA is an environmental assessment tool that was developed to assist strategic-level decision-makers, such as policy...

  3. Sea Turtle Conservation on Bonaire. Sea Turtle Club Bonaire 1995 Project Report and Long Term Proposal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valkering, N.P.; Nugteren, Van P.; Eijck, Van T.J.W.

    1996-01-01

    Bonaire (12°12’N, 68°77’W), Netherlands Antilles, is famous for its unspoiled coral reefs. Reefs and lush sea grass provide forage and refuge for two species of endangered sea turtle, the green turtle ( Chelonia mydas) and the hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata). Loggerhead ( Caretta caretta ) and

  4. Geodiversity and biodiversity assessment of the Słupsk Bank, Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najwer, Alicja; Zelewska, Izabela; Zwoliński, Zbigniew

    2017-04-01

    Recognizing the most diversified parts of the territory turns out to be very crucial for management and planning of natural protected areas. There is an increasing number of studies concerning assessing geodiversity and biodiversity of the land areas. However, there is noticeable lack of such publications for submerged zones. The study area consists of 100km2 Słupsk sandy shoal sporadically covered with boulder layers, located in the southern part of the Baltic Sea. It is characterised by landscapes of a significant nature value protected by Natura 2000 and is as well designated as an open sea by Helsinki Commission Baltic Sea Protected Area (HELCOM BSPA). The main aim of the presentation is an attempt to integrate geodiversity and biodiversity assessments of the submerged area using GIS platform. The basis for the diversity assessment is the proper selection of features of the marine environment, its reclassification and integration by the map algebra analysis. The map of geodiversity is based on three factor maps: a relief energy map (classification based on bathymetric model, a landform fragmentation/geomorphological map (expert classification using BPI - Bathymetric Position Index), and a lithological map (classification of the average size of grain fraction). The map of biodiversity is based on the following factor maps: a map of biomass distribution of Ceraminum Diaphanum, a map of biomass distribution of Coccotylus Truncatus, a map of biomass distribution of Polysiphonia Fucoides, a map of biomass distribution of Mytilus Edulis Trossulus, a map of distribution of macroalgae, and finally a map of distribution of macrozoobenthos. It was decided to use four classes of diversity (from low through medium and high, up to very high). The designation of the lowest class was abandoned because it characterizes areas with high anthropopressure. Maps of geodiversity and biodiversity may prove to be helpful in determining the directions for management of the most

  5. Sea ice in the Baltic Sea - revisiting BASIS ice, a~historical data set covering the period 1960/1961-1978/1979

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löptien, U.; Dietze, H.

    2014-06-01

    The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice-covered, marginal sea, situated in central northern Europe. It is an essential waterway connecting highly industrialised countries. Because ship traffic is intermittently hindered by sea ice, the local weather services have been monitoring sea ice conditions for decades. In the present study we revisit a historical monitoring data set, covering the winters 1960/1961. This data set, dubbed Data Bank for Baltic Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperatures (BASIS) ice, is based on hand-drawn maps that were collected and then digitised 1981 in a joint project of the Finnish Institute of Marine Research (today Finish Meteorological Institute (FMI)) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). BASIS ice was designed for storage on punch cards and all ice information is encoded by five digits. This makes the data hard to access. Here we present a post-processed product based on the original five-digit code. Specifically, we convert to standard ice quantities (including information on ice types), which we distribute in the current and free Network Common Data Format (NetCDF). Our post-processed data set will help to assess numerical ice models and provide easy-to-access unique historical reference material for sea ice in the Baltic Sea. In addition we provide statistics showcasing the data quality. The website www.baltic-ocean.org hosts the post-prossed data and the conversion code. The data are also archived at the Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science PANGEA (doi:10.1594/PANGEA.832353).

  6. Sea ice in the Baltic Sea - revisiting BASIS ice, a historical data set covering the period 1960/1961-1978/1979

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löptien, U.; Dietze, H.

    2014-12-01

    The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice-covered, marginal sea in central northern Europe. It is an essential waterway connecting highly industrialised countries. Because ship traffic is intermittently hindered by sea ice, the local weather services have been monitoring sea ice conditions for decades. In the present study we revisit a historical monitoring data set, covering the winters 1960/1961 to 1978/1979. This data set, dubbed Data Bank for Baltic Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperatures (BASIS) ice, is based on hand-drawn maps that were collected and then digitised in 1981 in a joint project of the Finnish Institute of Marine Research (today the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). BASIS ice was designed for storage on punch cards and all ice information is encoded by five digits. This makes the data hard to access. Here we present a post-processed product based on the original five-digit code. Specifically, we convert to standard ice quantities (including information on ice types), which we distribute in the current and free Network Common Data Format (NetCDF). Our post-processed data set will help to assess numerical ice models and provide easy-to-access unique historical reference material for sea ice in the Baltic Sea. In addition we provide statistics showcasing the data quality. The website http://www.baltic-ocean.org hosts the post-processed data and the conversion code. The data are also archived at the Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science, PANGAEA (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.832353).

  7. Evaluating Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise in the Northeastern United States - Approach and Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, Erika E.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gesch, Dean B.; Horton, Radley M.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

  8. Evaluating coastal landscape response to sea-level rise in the northeastern United States: approach and methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, Erika E.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gesch, Dean B.; Horton, Radley M.

    2014-02-13

    The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

  9. Project W-211 initial tank retrieval systems year 2000 compliance assessment project plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BUSSELL, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    This document contains a limited assessment of Year 2000 compliance for Project W-211. Additional information is provided as a road map to project documents and other references that may be used to verify Year 2000 compliance

  10. 105-B Reactor museum feasibility assessment (Phase 2) project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heckel, R. P.

    2000-01-01

    This 105-B Reactor Museum feasibility assessment project report documents project activities that have been performed, including a review and assessment of previously existing information, a walk-through of the facility, an assessment of potential hazards, and selection of mitigative measures deemed to be appropriate to allow unescorted access by members of the public to a specified primary tour route

  11. Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Robert E.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Bittermann, Klaus; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Gehrels, W. Roland; Hay, Carling C.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Morrow, Eric D.; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. PMID:26903659

  12. Geology and assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the Laptev Sea Shelf Province, 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klett, Timothy; Pitman, Janet K.; Moore, Thomas E.; Gautier, Donald L.

    2017-12-21

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently assessed the potential for undiscovered oil and gas resources of the Laptev Sea Shelf Province as part of the 2008 Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA) program. The province is situated in the Russian Federation and is located between the Taimyr Peninsula and the Novosibirsk (New Siberian) Islands. Three assessment units (AUs) were defined for this study: the West Laptev Grabens AU, the East Laptev Horsts AU, and the Anisin-Novosibirsk AU, two of which were assessed for undiscovered, technically recoverable resources. The East Laptev Horsts AU was not quantitatively assessed. The estimated mean volumes of undiscovered oil and gas for the Laptev Sea Shelf Province are approximately 3 billion barrels of crude oil, 32 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and <1 billion barrels of natural gas liquids, all north of the Arctic Circle.

  13. Marine Litter, Eutrophication and Noise Assessment Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palazov, Atanas; Velcheva, Maya; Milkova, Tanya; Slabakova, Violeta; Marinova, Veselka

    2017-04-01

    MARLEN - Marine Litter, Eutrophication and Noise Assessment Tools is a project under the Programme BG02.03: Increased capacity for assessing and predicting environmental status in marine and inland waters, managed by Bulgarian Ministry of environment and waters and co-financed by the Financial Mechanism of the European Economic Area (EEA FM) 2009 - 2014. Project Beneficiary is the Institute of oceanology - Bulgarian Academy of Sciences with two partners: Burgas municipality and Bulgarian Black Sea Basin Directorate. Initial assessment of ecological state of Bulgarian marine waters showed lack of data for some descriptors of MSFD. The main goal of MARLEN is to build up tools for assessment of marine environment by implementing new technologies and best practices for addressing three main areas of interest with lack of marine data in particular: a) Marine litter detection and classification in coastal areas; b) Regular near real time surface water eutrophication monitoring on large aquatory; c) Underwater noise monitoring. Developed tools are an important source of real time, near real time and delay mode marine data for Bulgarian Black Sea waters. The partnership within the project increased capacity for environmental assessments and training of personnel and enhances collaboration between scientific institutes, regional and local authorities. Project results supported implementation of MSFD in Bulgarian marine waters for the benefit of coastal population, marine industry, tourism, marine research and marine spatial planning.

  14. Air-sea exchange over Black Sea estimated from high resolution regional climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velea, Liliana; Bojariu, Roxana; Cica, Roxana

    2013-04-01

    Black Sea is an important influencing factor for the climate of bordering countries, showing cyclogenetic activity (Trigo et al, 1999) and influencing Mediterranean cyclones passing over. As for other seas, standard observations of the atmosphere are limited in time and space and available observation-based estimations of air-sea exchange terms present quite large ranges of uncertainty. The reanalysis datasets (e.g. ERA produced by ECMWF) provide promising validation estimates of climatic characteristics against the ones in available climatic data (Schrum et al, 2001), while cannot reproduce some local features due to relatively coarse horizontal resolution. Detailed and realistic information on smaller-scale processes are foreseen to be provided by regional climate models, due to continuous improvements of physical parameterizations and numerical solutions and thus affording simulations at high spatial resolution. The aim of the study is to assess the potential of three regional climate models in reproducing known climatological characteristics of air-sea exchange over Black Sea, as well as to explore the added value of the model compared to the input (reanalysis) data. We employ results of long-term (1961-2000) simulations performed within ENSEMBLE project (http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/) using models ETHZ-CLM, CNRM-ALADIN, METO-HadCM, for which the integration domain covers the whole area of interest. The analysis is performed for the entire basin for several variables entering the heat and water budget terms and available as direct output from the models, at seasonal and annual scale. A comparison with independent data (ERA-INTERIM) and findings from other studies (e.g. Schrum et al, 2001) is also presented. References: Schrum, C., Staneva, J., Stanev, E. and Ozsoy, E., 2001: Air-sea exchange in the Black Sea estimated from atmospheric analysis for the period 1979-1993, J. Marine Systems, 31, 3-19 Trigo, I. F., T. D. Davies, and G. R. Bigg (1999): Objective

  15. Using palynology to re-assess the Dead Sea laminated sediments - Indeed varves?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bookman, Revital; Lopez-Merino, Lourdes; Belmaker, Reuven; Eshel, Amram; Epshtein Epshtein, Valentina; Leroy, Suzanne

    2017-04-01

    Lacustrine laminated sediments are often varves representing annual rhythmic deposition. The Dead Sea high-stand laminated sections consist of mm-scale alternating detrital and authigenic aragonite laminae. Previous studies assumed these laminae were varves; detritus deposition during the winter and aragonite in the summer. These sequences were used for varve counting and chronology, however this assumption has never been robustly validated. Here, we report an examination of the seasonal deposition of detrital and aragonite couplets from two well-known Late Holocene laminated sections at the Ze'elim fan-delta using palynology and grain-size distribution analyses. These analyses are complemented by the study of contemporary flash-flood samples and multivariate statistical analysis. Because transport affects the pollen preservation state, well-preserved (mostly) air-borne transported pollen was analysed separately from badly-preserved pollen and fungal spores, which are more indicative of water transport and reworking from soils. Our results indicate that (i) both detrital and aragonite laminae were deposited during the rainy season; (ii) aragonite laminae have significantly lower reworked pollen and fungal spore concentrations than detrital and flash-flood samples; and (iii) detrital laminae are composed of recycling of local and distal sources, with coarser particles that were initially deposited in the Dead Sea watershed and later transported via run-off to the lake. The conclusions suggest that detrital and aragonite couplets in the Dead Sea laminated sediments are most likely not varves and that the laminae deposition is related to the occurrence of flash-flood events. Consequently, at least for the Holocene sequences, laminated sediments cannot be considered as varves and Quaternary laminated sequences should be re-evaluated. The Dead Sea Basin laminated sequences (as the ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project record) should be used for the reconstruction of

  16. Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graber, Robert R.

    2010-01-01

    A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

  17. Fiscal Feasibility Assessment Applied to Transport Infrastructure Projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guilherme de Aragão, J.J.; Santos Fontes Pereira, L. dos; Yamashita, Y.; Brandão, R.

    2016-07-01

    The demand for transport infrastructure investment is a latent issue for several countries, mainly for developing countries. However, investments in major logistics projects should be carefully evaluated, in order that their deployment induces development without endangering fiscal sustainability by excessive public indebtedness. Fiscal accounting practices used currently in the feasibility studies of transport infrastructures in Brazil are very limited, as they do not consider indirect and induced effects of the infrastructure investment in the fiscal evaluation. In addition, the corresponding influence area has not an established delimitation method. The aim of the present paper is to develop a model for calculating economic and fiscal impacts of transport infrastructure investment projects that includes the direct, indirect and induced effects within a reference area do be determined. First, different project assessment guides in Brazil and abroad are examined with a special focus on the assessment of economic and fiscal impacts of the projects. Based on the assessment experience and on the definition of the fiscal balance of an infrastructure project, the next step sets up a framework for the calculation of the impacts, using more simplified data. (Author)

  18. Comparative metagenomics of the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Mineta, Katsuhiko

    2016-01-01

    started monthly samplings of the metagenomes in the Red Sea under KAUST-CCF project. In collaboration with Kitasato University, we also collected the metagenome data from the ocean in Japan, which shows contrasting features to the Red Sea. Therefore

  19. Integrated ecosystem services assessment: Valuation of changes due to sea level rise in Galveston Bay, Texas, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoskowitz, David; Carollo, Cristina; Pollack, Jennifer Beseres; Santos, Carlota; Welder, Kathleen

    2017-03-01

    The goal of the present study was to identify the potential changes in ecosystem service values provided by wetlands in Galveston Bay, Texas, USA, under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B max (0.69 m) sea level rise scenario. Built exclusively upon the output produced during the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model 6 (SLAMM 6) exercise for the Galveston Bay region, this study showed that fresh marsh and salt marsh present a steady decline from 2009 (initial condition) to 2100. Fresh marsh was projected to undergo the biggest changes, with the loss of approximately 21% of its extent between 2009 and 2100 under the A1B max scenario. The percentages of change for salt marsh were less prominent at approximately 12%. This trend was also shown in the values of selected ecosystem services (disturbance regulation, waste regulation, recreation, and aesthetics) provided by these habitats. An ordinary least squares regression was used to calculate the monetary value of the selected ecosystem services provided by salt marsh and fresh marsh in 2009, and in 2050 and 2100 under the A1B max scenario. The value of the selected services showed potential monetary losses in excess of US$40 million annually in 2100, compared to 2009 for fresh marsh and more than $11 million for salt marsh. The estimates provided here are only small portions of what can be lost due to the decrease in habitat extent, and they highlight the need for protecting not only built infrastructure but also natural resources from sea level rise. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:431-443. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  20. The use of EuroCordex in marine climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, Jonathan; Palmer, Matthew; Lowe, Jason; Howard, Tom

    2017-04-01

    The Northwest European Shelf seas (NWS, including the North Sea, Irish Sea and Celtic Sea) are of economic, environmental and cultural importance to a number of European countries. However, their representation by global climate models (GCMs) is very crude, due to their inability to represent the complex geometry and the absence of tides. Therefore, there is a need to employ dynamical downscaling methods when considering the potential impacts of climate change on the European (and other) shelf seas. Using a shelf seas model to dynamically downscale of the ocean component of the GCM is a well established method. While taking open ocean lateral boundary conditions from the GCM ocean is acceptable, using surface flux forcings from the GCM atmosphere is often problematic. The CORDEX project provides an important dataset of high spatial and temporal resolution atmospheric forcings, derived from 'parent' CMIP5 GCM simulations. We drive the NEMO shelf seas model with data from CMIP5 models and EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model (RCM) data to produce a set of NWS climate projections. We require relatively high temporal resolution output, and run-off (for the river forcings), and so are limited to a subset of the available EURO-CORDEX RCMs. From these we select two CMIP5 GCMs with the same RCM with two emissions scenarios to give a minimum estimate of GCM model structural and emission scenario uncertainty. Other experiments allow an initial estimate of the uncertainty associated with the model structure of both the shelf seas and the RCM. Our analysis is focused on the uncertainty associated with the mean change in a number of physical marine impacts and the drivers of coastal variability and change, including sea level and the propagation of open ocean signals onto the shelf. Our work is part of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) and will inform the following UK Climate Change Risk Assessments, required as part of the Climate Change Act.

  1. Regional to Global Assessments of Phytoplankton Dynamics From The SeaWiFS Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegel, David; Behrenfeld, Michael; Maritorena, Stephanie; McClain, Charles R.; Antoine, David; Bailey, Sean W.; Bontempi, Paula S.; Boss, Emmanuel S.; Dierssen, Heidi M.; Doney, Scott C.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Photosynthetic production of organic matter by microscopic oceanic phytoplankton fuels ocean ecosystems and contributes roughly half of the Earth's net primary production. For 13 years, the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) mission provided the first consistent, synoptic observations of global ocean ecosystems. Changes in the surface chlorophyll concentration, the primary biological property retrieved from SeaWiFS, have traditionally been used as a metric for phytoplankton abundance and its distribution largely reflects patterns in vertical nutrient transport. On regional to global scales, chlorophyll concentrations covary with sea surface temperature (SST) because SST changes reflect light and nutrient conditions. However, the oceanmay be too complex to be well characterized using a single index such as the chlorophyll concentration. A semi-analytical bio-optical algorithm is used to help interpret regional to global SeaWiFS chlorophyll observations from using three independent, well-validated ocean color data products; the chlorophyll a concentration, absorption by CDM and particulate backscattering. First, we show that observed long-term, global-scale trends in standard chlorophyll retrievals are likely compromised by coincident changes in CDM. Second, we partition the chlorophyll signal into a component due to phytoplankton biomass changes and a component caused by physiological adjustments in intracellular chlorophyll concentrations to changes in mixed layer light levels. We show that biomass changes dominate chlorophyll signals for the high latitude seas and where persistent vertical upwelling is known to occur, while physiological processes dominate chlorophyll variability over much of the tropical and subtropical oceans. The SeaWiFS data set demonstrates complexity in the interpretation of changes in regional to global phytoplankton distributions and illustrates limitations for the assessment of phytoplankton dynamics using chlorophyll

  2. Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Jason; Schrum, Corinna; Cannaby, Heather; Daewel, Ute; Allen, Icarus; Artioli, Yuri; Bopp, Laurent; Butenschon, Momme; Fach, Bettina A.; Harle, James; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Salihoglu, Baris; Wakelin, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change

  3. Study of radioactivity among te Bulgarian Black Sea coastal zone - results from the NIMH monitoring program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veleva, B.; Kolarova, M.; Mungov, G. [National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia (Bulgaria)

    2011-07-01

    In the frame of the NIMH at BAS investigations of the Black sea radioactivity were initiated in 1978 with a development of a monitoring campaign. Samples of sea waters, sediments and algae were collected from several sampling sites along the coastal zone and measured by gamma-spectrometry. Results on gamma-emitting radio-nuclide's measurements in the Black sea coastal waters were published in the 80's. After the Chernobyl accident during the period between 1986-1989 seasonal-fields sampling campaigns were organised and radioactivity of algae and bottom sediments was estimated. Harmonized sampling strategies, analytical procedures and related data information exchange for radioactivity of seawater, sediment and biota in coastal areas of Black Sea countries were developed under the IAEA TCP Black Sea Project. The present work reports results of the monitoring programme of the NIMH of Bulgaria developed in the frame of the IAEA projects for the Black Sea basin. From 1993 to 2005 regular seasonal sampling was performed in 5 sampling sites along the Bulgarian Black Sea shore. Results of the dissolved '1'3'7Cs concentrations in sea water, sand, algae, and fish samples are discussed. The data for the different radio-isotopes measured in algae, fish and sea sediment samples are given in comparison with other investigations. A complex assessment of Cs-137 concentrations as important tracer and indicator of the marine processes is made on a long-term basis. (author)

  4. Study of radioactivity among te Bulgarian Black Sea coastal zone - results from the NIMH monitoring program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veleva, B.; Kolarova, M.; Mungov, G.

    2011-01-01

    In the frame of the NIMH at BAS investigations of the Black sea radioactivity were initiated in 1978 with a development of a monitoring campaign. Samples of sea waters, sediments and algae were collected from several sampling sites along the coastal zone and measured by gamma-spectrometry. Results on gamma-emitting radio-nuclide's measurements in the Black sea coastal waters were published in the 80's. After the Chernobyl accident during the period between 1986-1989 seasonal-fields sampling campaigns were organised and radioactivity of algae and bottom sediments was estimated. Harmonized sampling strategies, analytical procedures and related data information exchange for radioactivity of seawater, sediment and biota in coastal areas of Black Sea countries were developed under the IAEA TCP Black Sea Project. The present work reports results of the monitoring programme of the NIMH of Bulgaria developed in the frame of the IAEA projects for the Black Sea basin. From 1993 to 2005 regular seasonal sampling was performed in 5 sampling sites along the Bulgarian Black Sea shore. Results of the dissolved '1'3'7Cs concentrations in sea water, sand, algae, and fish samples are discussed. The data for the different radio-isotopes measured in algae, fish and sea sediment samples are given in comparison with other investigations. A complex assessment of Cs-137 concentrations as important tracer and indicator of the marine processes is made on a long-term basis. (author)

  5. History of sea ice in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Polyak, Leonid; Alley, Richard B.; Andrews, John T.

    2010-01-01

    Arctic sea-ice extent and volume are declining rapidly. Several studies project that the Arctic Ocean may become seasonally ice-free by the year 2040 or even earlier. Putting this into perspective requires information on the history of Arctic sea-ice conditions through the geologic past. This inf......Arctic sea-ice extent and volume are declining rapidly. Several studies project that the Arctic Ocean may become seasonally ice-free by the year 2040 or even earlier. Putting this into perspective requires information on the history of Arctic sea-ice conditions through the geologic past...... Optimum, and consistently covered at least part of the Arctic Ocean for no less than the last 13–14 million years. Ice was apparently most widespread during the last 2–3 million years, in accordance with Earth’s overall cooler climate. Nevertheless, episodes of considerably reduced sea ice or even...

  6. Development of Oil Spill Monitoring System for the Black Sea, Caspian Sea and the Barents/Kara Seas (DEMOSS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandven, Stein; Kudriavtsev, Vladimir; Malinovsky, Vladimir; Stanovoy, Vladimir

    2008-01-01

    DEMOSS will develop and demonstrate elements of a marine oil spill detection and prediction system based on satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and other space data. In addition, models for prediction of sea surface pollution drift will be developed and tested. The project implements field experiments to study the effect of artificial crude oil and oil derivatives films on short wind waves and multi-frequency (Ka-, Ku-, X-, and C-band) dual polarization radar backscatter power and Doppler shift at different wind and wave conditions. On the basis of these and other available experimental data, the present model of short wind waves and radar scattering will be improved and tested.A new approach for detection and quantification of the oil slicks/spills in satellite SAR images is developed that can discriminate human oil spills from biogenic slicks and look-alikes in the SAR images. New SAR images are obtained in coordination with the field experiments to test the detection algorithm. Satellite SAR images from archives as well as from new acquisitions will be analyzed for the Black/Caspian/Kara/Barents seas to investigate oil slicks/spills occurrence statistics.A model for oil spills/slicks transport and evolution is developed and tested in ice-infested arctic seas, including the Caspian Sea. Case studies using the model will be conducted to simulate drift and evolution of oil spill events observed in SAR images. The results of the project will be disseminated via scientific publications and by demonstration to users and agencies working with marine monitoring. The project lasts for two years (2007 - 2009) and is funded under INTAS Thematic Call with ESA 2006.

  7. The Minnesota Articulation Project and Its Proficiency-Based Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalhoub-Deville, Micheline

    1997-01-01

    Reports on the Minnesota Articulation Project, providing an overview of the projects' three principal working groups: political action, curriculum, and assessment. The article then outlines the theoretical underpinnings of the proficiency-based assessment instruments developed in French, German, and Spanish and describes in detail the content and…

  8. Assessment of the sea-ice carbon pump

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grimm, R.; Notz, D.; Glud, Ronnie N.

    2016-01-01

    -induced oceanic CO2 uptake ranges from 2 to 14 Tg C yr−1, which is up to 7% of the simulated net CO2 uptake in polar regions, but far less than 1% of the cur-rent global oceanic CO2 uptake. Hence, while we find that the SICP plays a minor role in the modern global carbon cycle, it is of importance......It has been suggested that geochemical processes related to sea-ice growth and melt might be important for the polar carbon cycle via the so called sea-ice carbon pump (SICP). The SICP affects the air-sea CO2 exchange by influencing the composition of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total...... for the regional carbon cycle at high latitudes....

  9. 34 CFR 200.83 - Responsibilities of SEAs to implement projects through a comprehensive needs assessment and a...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... in consultation with the State parent advisory council or, for SEAs not operating programs for one school year in duration, in consultation with the parents of migratory children. This consultation must..., as amended at 68 FR 19152, Apr. 18, 2003; 73 FR 44124, July 29, 2008] Effective Date Note: At 73 FR...

  10. Combining sea state and land subsidence rates in an assessment of flooding hazards at the Danish North Sea coast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Broge, Niels; Knudsen, Per

    Sand nourishments (2-3 M3/y) counteract erosion on the central North Sea coast of Denmark and dikes and artificial dunes protect the low-lying hinterland from flooding. The fisheries towns of Thyboron, Thorsminde and Hvide Sande are all liable to flooding during storm surges. Tide gauge series fr...... the coast are presented and the town of Thyboron is used as a case where, in addition to SLR and extremes, analyses of land movement and ocean-groundwater interactions are included in an integrated method for assessing future coastal flooding hazards.......Sand nourishments (2-3 M3/y) counteract erosion on the central North Sea coast of Denmark and dikes and artificial dunes protect the low-lying hinterland from flooding. The fisheries towns of Thyboron, Thorsminde and Hvide Sande are all liable to flooding during storm surges. Tide gauge series from...

  11. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  12. A high-resolution assessment of wind and wave energy potentials in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Langodan, Sabique; Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu; Dasari, Hari Prasad; Knio, Omar; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2016-01-01

    This study presents an assessment of the potential for harvesting wind and wave energy from the Red Sea based on an 18-year high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalysis recently generated using the Advanced Weather Research Forecasting model

  13. Anthropogenic radioactivity in the Arctic Ocean. Review of the results from the joint German project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nies, H.; Harms, I.H.; Karcher, M.J.; Dethleff, D.; Bahe, C.

    1999-01-01

    The paper presents the results of the joint project carried out in Germany in order to assess the consequences in the marine environment from the dumping of nuclear wastes in the Kara and Barents Seas. The project consisted of experimental work on measurements of radionuclides in samples from the Arctic marine environment and numerical modelling of the potential pathways and dispersion of contaminants in the Arctic Ocean. Water and sediment samples were collected for determination of radionuclide such as 137Cs, 90Sr, 239+240Pu, 238Pu, and 241Am and various organic micropollutants. In addition, a few water and numerous surface sediment samples collected in the Kara Sea and from the Kola peninsula were taken by Russian colleagues and analysed for artificial radionuclides by the BSH laboratory. The role of transport by sea ice from the Kara Sea into the Arctic Ocean was assessed by a small subgroup at GEOMAR. This transport process might be considered as a rapid contribution due to entrainment of contaminated sediments into sea ice, following export from the Kara Sea into the transpolar ice drift and subsequent release in the Atlantic Ocean in the area of the East Greenland Current. Numerical modelling of dispersion of pollutants from the Kara and Barents Seas was carried out both on a local scale for the Barents and Kara Seas and for long range dispersion into the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans. Three-dimensional baroclinic circulation models were applied to trace the transport of pollutants. Experimental results were used to validate the model results such as the discharges from the nuclear reprocessing plant at Sellafield and subsequent contamination of the North Sea up the Arctic Seas

  14. Anthropogenic radioactivity in the Arctic Ocean--review of the results from the joint German project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nies, H; Harms, I H; Karcher, M J; Dethleff, D; Bahe, C

    1999-09-30

    The paper presents the results of the joint project carried out in Germany in order to assess the consequences in the marine environment from the dumping of nuclear wastes in the Kara and Barents Seas. The project consisted of experimental work on measurements of radionuclides in samples from the Arctic marine environment and numerical modelling of the potential pathways and dispersion of contaminants in the Arctic Ocean. Water and sediment samples were collected for determination of radionuclide such as 137Cs, 90Sr, 239 + 240Pu, 238Pu, and 241Am and various organic micropollutants. In addition, a few water and numerous surface sediment samples collected in the Kara Sea and from the Kola peninsula were taken by Russian colleagues and analysed for artificial radionuclide by the BSH laboratory. The role of transport by sea ice from the Kara Sea into the Arctic Ocean was assessed by a small subgroup at GEOMAR. This transport process might be considered as a rapid contribution due to entrainment of contaminated sediments into sea ice, following export from the Kara Sea into the transpolar ice drift and subsequent release in the Atlantic Ocean in the area of the East Greenland Current. Numerical modelling of dispersion of pollutants from the Kara and Barents Seas was carried out both on a local scale for the Barents and Kara Seas and for long range dispersion into the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans. Three-dimensional baroclinic circulation models were applied to trace the transport of pollutants. Experimental results were used to validate the model results such as the discharges from the nuclear reprocessing plant at Sellafield and subsequent contamination of the North Sea up the Arctic Seas.

  15. Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, S; Caesar, J; Wolf, J; Bricheno, L; Nicholls, R J; Saiful Islam, A K M; Haque, A; Pardaens, A; Lowe, J A

    2015-07-01

    Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5th assessment modelling of sea level rise and estimates of subsidence rates from the EU IMPACT2C project suggest that sea level in the GBM delta region may rise by 0.63 to 0.88 m by 2090, with some studies suggesting this could be up to 0.5 m higher if potential substantial melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is included. These sea level rise scenarios lead to increased frequency of high water coastal events. Any effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storms can also have an effect on extreme sea levels. A shelf-sea model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to investigate how the combined effect of sea level rise and changes in other environmental conditions under climate change may alter the frequency of extreme sea level events for the period 1971 to 2099. The model was forced using atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions derived from climate model projections and the future scenario increase in sea level was applied at its ocean boundary. The model results show an increased likelihood of extreme sea level events through the 21st century, with the frequency of events increasing greatly in the second half of the century: water levels that occurred at decadal time intervals under present-day model conditions occurred in most years by the middle of the 21st century and 3-15 times per year by 2100. The heights of the most extreme events tend to increase more in the first half of the century than the second. The modelled scenarios provide a case study of how sea level rise and other effects of climate change may combine to produce a greatly increased threat to life and property in the GBM delta by the end

  16. SeaWiFS: North Pacific Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    An extratropical storm can be seen swirling over the North Pacific just south of Alaska. This SeaWiFS image was collected yesterday at 23:20 GMT. Credit: Provided by the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE

  17. IAEA Nuclear Security Assessment Methodologies (NUSAM) Project for Regulated Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Sung Soon

    2016-01-01

    Nuclear Security Assessment Methodologies (NUSAM) is a coordinate research project. The objectives of the NUSAM project is to establish a risk informed, performance-based methodological framework in a systematic, structured, comprehensive and appropriately transparent manner; to provide an environment for the sharing and transfer of knowledge and experience; and to provide guidance on, and practical examples of good practices in assessing the security of nuclear and other radioactive materials, as well as associated facilities and activities. The author worked as an IAEA scientific secretary of the NUAM project from 2013 to 2015. IAEA launched this project in 2013 and performed many activities: meetings, document development, table-top exercises and computer simulations. Now the project is in the final stage and will be concluded in the late 2016. The project will produce documents on NUSAM assessment methods and case study documents on NPP, Irradiator Facility and Transport. South Korea as a main contributor to this project will get benefits from the NUSAM. In 2014, South Korea introduced force-on-force exercises, which could be used as the assessment of physical protection system by the methods of NUSAM

  18. IAEA Nuclear Security Assessment Methodologies (NUSAM) Project for Regulated Facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Sung Soon [Korea Nuclear Non-proliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    Nuclear Security Assessment Methodologies (NUSAM) is a coordinate research project. The objectives of the NUSAM project is to establish a risk informed, performance-based methodological framework in a systematic, structured, comprehensive and appropriately transparent manner; to provide an environment for the sharing and transfer of knowledge and experience; and to provide guidance on, and practical examples of good practices in assessing the security of nuclear and other radioactive materials, as well as associated facilities and activities. The author worked as an IAEA scientific secretary of the NUAM project from 2013 to 2015. IAEA launched this project in 2013 and performed many activities: meetings, document development, table-top exercises and computer simulations. Now the project is in the final stage and will be concluded in the late 2016. The project will produce documents on NUSAM assessment methods and case study documents on NPP, Irradiator Facility and Transport. South Korea as a main contributor to this project will get benefits from the NUSAM. In 2014, South Korea introduced force-on-force exercises, which could be used as the assessment of physical protection system by the methods of NUSAM.

  19. Facility Interface Capability Assessment (FICA) project report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pope, R.B.; MacDonald, R.R.; Viebrock, J.M.; Mote, N.

    1995-09-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is responsible for developing the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System (CRWMS) to accept spent nuclear fuel from commercial facilities. The objective of the Facility Interface Capability Assessment (FICA) project was to assess the capability of each commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) storage facility, at which SNF is stored, to handle various SNF shipping casks. The purpose of this report is to present and analyze the results of the facility assessments completed within the FICA project. During Phase 1, the data items required to complete the facility assessments were identified and the database for the project was created. During Phase 2, visits were made to 122 facilities on 76 sites to collect data and information, the database was updated, and assessments of the cask-handling capabilities at each facility were performed. Each assessment of cask-handling capability contains three parts: the current capability of the facility (planning base); the potential enhanced capability if revisions were made to the facility licensing and/or administrative controls; and the potential enhanced capability if limited physical modifications were made to the facility. The main conclusion derived from the planning base assessments is that the current facility capabilities will not allow handling of any of the FICA Casks at 49 of the 122 facilities evaluated. However, consideration of potential revisions and/or modifications showed that all but one of the 49 facilities could be adapted to handle at least one of the FICA Casks. For this to be possible, facility licensing, administrative controls, and/or physical aspects of the facility would need to be modified

  20. Facility Interface Capability Assessment (FICA) project report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pope, R.B. [ed.] [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); MacDonald, R.R. [ed.] [Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System, Vienna, VA (United States); Viebrock, J.M.; Mote, N. [Nuclear Assurance Corp., Norcross, GA (United States)

    1995-09-01

    The US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is responsible for developing the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System (CRWMS) to accept spent nuclear fuel from commercial facilities. The objective of the Facility Interface Capability Assessment (FICA) project was to assess the capability of each commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) storage facility, at which SNF is stored, to handle various SNF shipping casks. The purpose of this report is to present and analyze the results of the facility assessments completed within the FICA project. During Phase 1, the data items required to complete the facility assessments were identified and the database for the project was created. During Phase 2, visits were made to 122 facilities on 76 sites to collect data and information, the database was updated, and assessments of the cask-handling capabilities at each facility were performed. Each assessment of cask-handling capability contains three parts: the current capability of the facility (planning base); the potential enhanced capability if revisions were made to the facility licensing and/or administrative controls; and the potential enhanced capability if limited physical modifications were made to the facility. The main conclusion derived from the planning base assessments is that the current facility capabilities will not allow handling of any of the FICA Casks at 49 of the 122 facilities evaluated. However, consideration of potential revisions and/or modifications showed that all but one of the 49 facilities could be adapted to handle at least one of the FICA Casks. For this to be possible, facility licensing, administrative controls, and/or physical aspects of the facility would need to be modified.

  1. 2013 update on sea otter studies to assess recovery from the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, Prince William Sound, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballachey, Brenda E.; Monson, Daniel H.; Esslinger, George G.; Kloecker, Kimberly; Bodkin, James L.; Bowen, Lizabeth; Miles, A. Keith

    2014-01-01

    On March 24, 1989, the tanker vessel Exxon Valdez ran aground in Prince William Sound, Alaska, spilling an estimated 42 million liters of Prudhoe Bay crude oil. Oil spread in a southwesterly direction and was deposited on shores and waters in western Prince William Sound (WPWS). The sea otter (Enhydra lutris) was one of more than 20 nearshore species considered to have been injured by the spill. Since 1989, the U.S. Geological Survey has led a research program to evaluate effects of the spill on sea otters and assess progress toward recovery, as defined by demographic and biochemical indicators. Here, we provide an update on the status of sea otter populations in WPWS, presenting findings through 2013. To assess recovery based on demographic indicators, we used aerial surveys to estimate abundance and annual collections of sea otter carcasses to evaluate patterns in ages-at-death. To assess recovery based on biochemical indicators, we quantified transcription rates for a suite of genes selected as potential indicators of oil exposure in sea otters based on laboratory studies of a related species, the mink (Mustela vison). In our most recent assessment of sea otter recovery, which incorporated results from a subset of studies through 2009, we concluded that recovery of sea otters in WPWS was underway. This conclusion was based on increasing abundance throughout WPWS, including increasing numbers at northern Knight Island, an area that was heavily oiled in 1989 and where the local sea otter population had previously shown protracted injury and lack of recovery. However, we did not conclude that the WPWS sea otter population had fully recovered, due to indications of continuing reduced survival and exposure to lingering oil in sea otters at Knight Island, at least through 2009. Based on data available through 2013, we now conclude that the status of sea otters—at all spatial scales within WPWS—is consistent with the designation of recovery from the spill as

  2. Risk and environmental impact assessments for the decommissioning of radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs) around the Baltic Sea area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    The removal and safe disposal of RTGs and their replacement with solar panel technology in the Baltic Sea is a priority area under the Norwegian Nuclear Action Plan. 26 of the 87 RTGs around the Baltic Sea have been removed as of 7th October 2009. The removal of RTGs around the Baltic Sea was initiated in 2009 as part of the Norwegian-Russian cooperation with funding from Norway, which requires that risk and environmental impact assessments are carried out during the planning phase. Finland and France will also be contributing to the work of removal and safe disposal of the RTGs around the Baltic Sea. (Author)

  3. towards a theory-based multi-dimensional framework for assessment in mathematics: The "SEA" framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anku, Sitsofe E.

    1997-09-01

    Using the reform documents of the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM) (NCTM, 1989, 1991, 1995), a theory-based multi-dimensional assessment framework (the "SEA" framework) which should help expand the scope of assessment in mathematics is proposed. This framework uses a context based on mathematical reasoning and has components that comprise mathematical concepts, mathematical procedures, mathematical communication, mathematical problem solving, and mathematical disposition.

  4. An Assessment of State-of-the-Art Mean Sea Surface and Geoid Models of the Arctic Ocean: Implications for Sea Ice Freeboard Retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skourup, Henriette; Farrell, Sinéad Louise; Hendricks, Stefan; Ricker, Robert; Armitage, Thomas W. K.; Ridout, Andy; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Haas, Christian; Baker, Steven

    2017-11-01

    State-of-the-art Arctic Ocean mean sea surface (MSS) models and global geoid models (GGMs) are used to support sea ice freeboard estimation from satellite altimeters, as well as in oceanographic studies such as mapping sea level anomalies and mean dynamic ocean topography. However, errors in a given model in the high-frequency domain, primarily due to unresolved gravity features, can result in errors in the estimated along-track freeboard. These errors are exacerbated in areas with a sparse lead distribution in consolidated ice pack conditions. Additionally model errors can impact ocean geostrophic currents, derived from satellite altimeter data, while remaining biases in these models may impact longer-term, multisensor oceanographic time series of sea level change in the Arctic. This study focuses on an assessment of five state-of-the-art Arctic MSS models (UCL13/04 and DTU15/13/10) and a commonly used GGM (EGM2008). We describe errors due to unresolved gravity features, intersatellite biases, and remaining satellite orbit errors, and their impact on the derivation of sea ice freeboard. The latest MSS models, incorporating CryoSat-2 sea surface height measurements, show improved definition of gravity features, such as the Gakkel Ridge. The standard deviation between models ranges 0.03-0.25 m. The impact of remaining MSS/GGM errors on freeboard retrieval can reach several decimeters in parts of the Arctic. While the maximum observed freeboard difference found in the central Arctic was 0.59 m (UCL13 MSS minus EGM2008 GGM), the standard deviation in freeboard differences is 0.03-0.06 m.

  5. Predicting the impact of tsunami in California under rising sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dura, T.; Garner, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Kopp, R. E.; Horton, B.

    2017-12-01

    The flood hazard for the California coast depends not only on the magnitude, location, and rupture length of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone earthquakes and their resultant tsunamis, but also on rising sea levels, which combine with tsunamis to produce overall flood levels. The magnitude of future sea-level rise remains uncertain even on the decadal scale, with future sea-level projections becoming even more uncertain at timeframes of a century or more. Earthquake statistics indicate that timeframes of ten thousand to one hundred thousand years are needed to capture rare, very large earthquakes. Because of the different timescales between reliable sea-level projections and earthquake distributions, simply combining the different probabilities in the context of a tsunami hazard assessment may be flawed. Here, we considered 15 earthquakes between Mw 8 to Mw 9.4 bound by -171oW and -140oW of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone. We employed 24 realizations at each magnitude with random epicenter locations and different fault length-to-width ratios, and simulated the tsunami evolution from these 360 earthquakes at each decade from the years 2000 to 2200. These simulations were then carried out for different sea-level-rise projections to analyze the future flood hazard for California. Looking at the flood levels at tide gauges, we found that the flood level simulated at, for example, the year 2100 (including respective sea-level change) is different from the flood level calculated by adding the flood for the year 2000 to the sea-level change prediction for the year 2100. This is consistent for all sea-level rise scenarios, and this difference in flood levels range between 5% and 12% for the larger half of the given magnitude interval. Focusing on flood levels at the tide gauge in the Port of Los Angeles, the most probable flood level (including all earthquake magnitudes) in the year 2000 was 5 cm. Depending on the sea-level predictions, in the year 2050 the most probable

  6. SEA and planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stoeglehner, G.; Brown, A.L.; Kørnøv, Lone

    2009-01-01

    , and the relationship of the SEA to the planning activity itself. This paper focuses on the influence that planners have in these implementation processes, postulating the hypothesis that these are key players in achieving effectiveness in SEA. Based upon implementation theory and empirical experience, the paper......As the field of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) has matured, the focus has moved from the development of legislation, guidelines and methodologies towards improving the effectiveness of SEA. Measuring and of course achieving effectiveness is both complex and challenging. This paper...

  7. Causes and consequences of short-term sea-level changes in the Cretaceous green- and "hothouse": Topics and context of IGCP Project 609

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sames, Benjamin; Wagreich, Michael

    2015-04-01

    In contrast to the well-understood process of glacial eustasy, controlled mainly by waxing and waning of continental ice sheets, significant short-term, i.e. 10s kyr to a few myr (3rd to 4th order cycles) sea-level changes during the Cretaceous major greenhouse episode remain enigmatic. Such cyclic changes are often explained by the presence of ephemeral ice sheets even during the hottest greenhouse phases ("hothouse periods"), such as the mid-Cretaceous. Though Cretaceous global eustasy involves processes like brief glacial episodes (glacio-eustasy) for which evidence was given - at least for the Early Cretaceous and the late Late Cretaceous - other mechanisms have to be taken into consideration for the "hothouse periods" during which continental ice shields are highly improbable, like the storage and release of groundwater (termed "limno-eustasy" or "aquifer-eustasy"), the possible effect and magnitude of which might have been highly underestimated. Investigation of the timing, the causes, and the consequences of significant short-term (i.e. mainly kyr to 100s of kyr) sea-level changes during the last major greenhouse episode of Earth history, the Cretaceous, is the ultimate goal of the UNESCO IGCP (International Geoscience Programme) project number 609 "Climate-environmental deteriorations during greenhouse phases: Causes and consequences of short-term Cretaceous sea-level changes" (2013-2017; http://www.univie.ac.at/igcp609/). This also comprises the global versus regional correlation and extent of the sequences, their cyclicities, as well as the processes and triggering mechanisms for these, and marine to non-marine correlations. Recent refinements of the geological time scale have made major advances for the Cretaceous to yield a resolution comparable to that of younger Earth history. It is now for the first time possible to correlate and date short-term Cretaceous sea-level records with a resolution appropriate for their detailed analysis. Recognized

  8. Assessing water quality of the Chesapeake Bay by the impact of sea level rise and warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, P.; Linker, L.; Wang, H.; Bhatt, G.; Yactayo, G.; Hinson, K.; Tian, R.

    2017-08-01

    The influence of sea level rise and warming on circulation and water quality of the Chesapeake Bay under projected climate conditions in 2050 were estimated by computer simulation. Four estuarine circulation scenarios in the estuary were run using the same watershed load in 1991-2000 period. They are, 1) the Base Scenario, which represents the current climate condition, 2) a Sea Level Rise Scenario, 3) a Warming Scenario, and 4) a combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario. With a 1.6-1.9°C increase in monthly air temperatures in the Warming Scenario, water temperature in the Bay is estimated to increase by 0.8-1°C. Summer average anoxic volume is estimated to increase 1.4 percent compared to the Base Scenario, because of an increase in algal blooms in the spring and summer, promotion of oxygen consumptive processes, and an increase of stratification. However, a 0.5-meter Sea Level Rise Scenario results in a 12 percent reduction of anoxic volume. This is mainly due to increased estuarine circulation that promotes oxygen-rich sea water intrusion in lower layers. The combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario results in a 10.8 percent reduction of anoxic volume. Global warming increases precipitation and consequently increases nutrient loads from the watershed by approximately 5-7 percent. A scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and current estuarine circulation patterns yielded a 19 percent increase in summer anoxic volume, while a scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and modified estuarine circulation patterns by the aforementioned sea level rise and warming yielded a 6 percent increase in summer anoxic volume. Impacts on phytoplankton, sediments, and water clarity were also analysed.

  9. Assessment of online public opinions on large infrastructure projects: A case study of the Three Gorges Project in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Hanchen; Qiang, Maoshan; Lin, Peng

    2016-01-01

    Public opinion becomes increasingly salient in the ex post evaluation stage of large infrastructure projects which have significant impacts to the environment and the society. However, traditional survey methods are inefficient in collection and assessment of the public opinion due to its large quantity and diversity. Recently, Social media platforms provide a rich data source for monitoring and assessing the public opinion on controversial infrastructure projects. This paper proposes an assessment framework to transform unstructured online public opinions on large infrastructure projects into sentimental and topical indicators for enhancing practices of ex post evaluation and public participation. The framework uses web crawlers to collect online comments related to a large infrastructure project and employs two natural language processing technologies, including sentiment analysis and topic modeling, with spatio-temporal analysis, to transform these comments into indicators for assessing online public opinion on the project. Based on the framework, we investigate the online public opinion of the Three Gorges Project on China's largest microblogging site, namely, Weibo. Assessment results present spatial-temporal distributions of post intensity and sentiment polarity, reveals major topics with different sentiments and summarizes managerial implications, for ex post evaluation of the world's largest hydropower project. The proposed assessment framework is expected to be widely applied as a methodological strategy to assess public opinion in the ex post evaluation stage of large infrastructure projects. - Highlights: • We developed a framework to assess online public opinion on large infrastructure projects with environmental impacts. • Indicators were built to assess post intensity, sentiment polarity and major topics of the public opinion. • We took the Three Gorges Project (TGP) as an example to demonstrate the effectiveness proposed framework.

  10. Assessment of online public opinions on large infrastructure projects: A case study of the Three Gorges Project in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang, Hanchen, E-mail: jhc13@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn; Qiang, Maoshan, E-mail: qiangms@tsinghua.edu.cn; Lin, Peng, E-mail: celinpe@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn

    2016-11-15

    Public opinion becomes increasingly salient in the ex post evaluation stage of large infrastructure projects which have significant impacts to the environment and the society. However, traditional survey methods are inefficient in collection and assessment of the public opinion due to its large quantity and diversity. Recently, Social media platforms provide a rich data source for monitoring and assessing the public opinion on controversial infrastructure projects. This paper proposes an assessment framework to transform unstructured online public opinions on large infrastructure projects into sentimental and topical indicators for enhancing practices of ex post evaluation and public participation. The framework uses web crawlers to collect online comments related to a large infrastructure project and employs two natural language processing technologies, including sentiment analysis and topic modeling, with spatio-temporal analysis, to transform these comments into indicators for assessing online public opinion on the project. Based on the framework, we investigate the online public opinion of the Three Gorges Project on China's largest microblogging site, namely, Weibo. Assessment results present spatial-temporal distributions of post intensity and sentiment polarity, reveals major topics with different sentiments and summarizes managerial implications, for ex post evaluation of the world's largest hydropower project. The proposed assessment framework is expected to be widely applied as a methodological strategy to assess public opinion in the ex post evaluation stage of large infrastructure projects. - Highlights: • We developed a framework to assess online public opinion on large infrastructure projects with environmental impacts. • Indicators were built to assess post intensity, sentiment polarity and major topics of the public opinion. • We took the Three Gorges Project (TGP) as an example to demonstrate the effectiveness proposed framework.

  11. Project W-519 TWRS privatization phase 1 infrastructure year 2000 compliance assessment project plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BUSSELL, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    This document contains a limited assessment of Year 2000 compliance for Project W-519. Additional information is provided as a road map to project documents and other references that may be used to verify Year 2000 compliance

  12. Economic assessment of a waste hydrogen utilization project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, H.; Wang, L.; Zhou, W.; Wu, J.; Wang, Q.

    1993-01-01

    This article reports an economic assessment on a hydride hydrogen recovery, purification, storage, transportation and application project (HRPSTA) set for a system including a nitrogenous fertilizer plant and a float glass factory. In this project, a pretreatment unit and metal hydride containers are used to recover and purify the hydrogen from the purge gas of the ammonia fertilizer plant and to transport and use the hydrogen in the tin bath in the float glass factory. Detailed economic assessment, cost analysis and a cash flow statement are presented, and financial net present value (NPV), as well as intrinsic rate of return (IRR), is calculated. The results shows that this project, which is feasible technologically, is profitable economically. (Author)

  13. Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation management in Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camp, Richard J.; Loh, Rhonda; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Brinck, Kevin W.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan; McDaniel, Sierra; Fortini, Lucas B.

    2018-01-01

    Climate change will likely alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in Hawai`i. This is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park where intensely managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs), focal sites for managing rare and endangered plants, may no longer provide suitable habitat under future climate. Expanding invasive species’ distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate. We combine recent climate modeling efforts for the state of Hawai`i with plant species distribution models to forecast changes in biodiversity in SEAs under future climate conditions. Based on this bioclimatic envelope model, we generated projected species range maps for four snapshots in time (2000, 2040, 2070, and 2090) to assess whether the range of 39 native and invasive species of management interest are expected to contract, expand, or remain the same under a moderately warmer and more variable precipitation scenario. Approximately two-thirds of the modeled native species were projected to contract in range, while one-third were shown to increase. Most of the park’s SEAs were projected to lose a majority of the native species modeled. Nine of the 10 modeled invasive species were projected to contract within the park; this trend occurred in most SEAs, including those at low, middle, and high elevations. There was good congruence in the current (2000) distribution of species richness and SEA configuration; however, the congruence between species richness hotspots and SEAs diminished by the end of this century. Over time the projected species-rich hotspots increasingly occurred outside of current SEA boundaries. Our research brought together managers and scientists to increase understanding of potential climate change impacts, and provide needed information to address how plants may respond under future conditions relative to current managed areas.

  14. Assessment of island beach erosion due to sea level rise: the case of the Aegean archipelago (Eastern Mediterranean)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monioudi, Isavela N.; Velegrakis, Adonis F.; Chatzipavlis, Antonis E.; Rigos, Anastasios; Karambas, Theophanis; Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Hasiotis, Thomas; Koukourouvli, Nikoletta; Peduzzi, Pascal; Manoutsoglou, Eva; Poulos, Serafim E.; Collins, Michael B.

    2017-03-01

    The present contribution constitutes the first comprehensive attempt to (a) record the spatial characteristics of the beaches of the Aegean archipelago (Greece), a critical resource for both the local and national economy, and (b) provide a rapid assessment of the impacts of the long-term and episodic sea level rise (SLR) under different scenarios. Spatial information and other attributes (e.g., presence of coastal protection works and backshore development) of the beaches of the 58 largest islands of the archipelago were obtained on the basis of remote-sensed images available on the web. Ranges of SLR-induced beach retreats under different morphological, sedimentological and hydrodynamic forcing, and SLR scenarios were estimated using suitable ensembles of cross-shore (1-D) morphodynamic models. These ranges, combined with empirically derived estimations of wave run-up induced flooding, were then compared with the recorded maximum beach widths to provide ranges of retreat/erosion and flooding at the archipelago scale. The spatial information shows that the Aegean pocket beaches may be particularly vulnerable to mean sea level rise (MSLR) and episodic SLRs due to (i) their narrow widths (about 59 % of the beaches have maximum widths Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) - a storm-induced sea level rise of 0.6 m is projected to result in a complete erosion of between 31 and 88 % of all beaches (29-87 % of beaches are currently fronting coastal infrastructure and assets), at least temporarily. Our results suggest a very considerable risk which will require significant effort, financial resources and policies/regulation in order to protect/maintain the critical economic resource of the Aegean archipelago.

  15. Incorporating the Technology Roadmap Uncertainties into the Project Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnema, B.E.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes two methods, Technology Roadmapping and Project Risk Assessment, which were used to identify and manage the technical risks relating to the treatment of sodium bearing waste at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. The waste treatment technology under consideration was Direct Vitrification. The primary objective of the Technology Roadmap is to identify technical data uncertainties for the technologies involved and to prioritize the testing or development studies to fill the data gaps. Similarly, project management's objective for a multi-million dollar construction project includes managing all the key risks in accordance to DOE O 413.3 - ''Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets.'' In the early stages, the Project Risk Assessment is based upon a qualitative analysis for each risk's probability and consequence. In order to clearly prioritize the work to resolve the technical issues identified in the Technology Roadmap, the issues must be cross- referenced to the project's Risk Assessment. This will enable the project to get the best value for the cost to mitigate the risks

  16. The safety assessment of radioactive material transpotation at sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Satoh, K.; Ozaki, S.; Watabe, N.; Fukuda, S.; Iida, T.; Miyao, S.; Noguchi, K.; Nakajima, K.

    1989-01-01

    Large quantities of low level wastes are prepared for transportation by special use vessels from each power plant to the storage facility at Rokkasho-mura in Aomori Prefecture. Large quantities of reprocessed wastes are also planned for return by similar vessels to the same place from France and the UK. In this paper the authors describe the safety assessment in hypothetical accident conditions during such mass transportation at sea. Although the possibilities of the sinking of the special use vessels as shown in figure 1 are considered to be very low on account of their double-hull structure, it is necessary to estimate the radiological risks of the transportation in order to obtain public acceptance. In this study, the following procedure is taken: (i) assumption of accident; (ii) establishment of safety assessment procedure; (iii) determination of source terms; (iv) diffusion calculation of radionuclide; (v) estimation of radiation exposure of the public

  17. Sea Turtle Conservation on Bonaire. Sea Turtle Club Bonaire 1996 Project Report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Norde, D.J.; Rossum, van J.P.

    1997-01-01

    Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles (12°12’N, 68°77’W) is an island in the Caribbean sea, situated about 50 km east of Curacao and 80 km north of the South American continent (Venezuela). Its 288 2 km of land hold about 14,000 inhabitants. Bonaire has a strongly growing population, which is mostly due to

  18. Assessment of the sea cucumber resource and fishery in the Bolinao-Anda reef system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronald Dionnie D. Olavides

    Full Text Available Fishery-independent and -dependent surveys were conducted to assess the status of the sea cucumber resource and fishery in Bolinao and Anda, Pangasinan. Thirty-five species of holothurians were recorded in 25 sampling stations within seagrass beds, coral reefs and mixed habitats. The estimated total population density of all aspidochirote sea cucumber species is 63 ind. ha-1. The artisanal multi-species fishery is at present primarily based on Holothuria scabra, Stichopus horrens and Bohadschia marmorata although there are indications that other high-value species were fished to local extinction. Taken together, the small sizes (<20 cm body length of the majority of aspidochirote sea cucumbers, their low population densities, and the continuous decrease in catches are clear signs of an overexploited fishery that will likely collapse without management intervention. Adaptive management strategies for Bolinao and Anda are recommended based on the findings of this survey.

  19. SeaDataCloud - further developing the pan-European SeaDataNet infrastructure for marine and ocean data management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaap, Dick M. A.; Fichaut, Michele

    2017-04-01

    SeaDataCloud marks the third phase of developing the pan-European SeaDataNet infrastructure for marine and ocean data management. The SeaDataCloud project is funded by EU and runs for 4 years from 1st November 2016. It succeeds the successful SeaDataNet II (2011 - 2015) and SeaDataNet (2006 - 2011) projects. SeaDataNet has set up and operates a pan-European infrastructure for managing marine and ocean data and is undertaken by National Oceanographic Data Centres (NODC's) and oceanographic data focal points from 34 coastal states in Europe. The infrastructure comprises a network of interconnected data centres and central SeaDataNet portal. The portal provides users a harmonised set of metadata directories and controlled access to the large collections of datasets, managed by the interconnected data centres. The population of directories has increased considerably in cooperation with and involvement in many associated EU projects and initiatives such as EMODnet. SeaDataNet at present gives overview and access to more than 1.9 million data sets for physical oceanography, chemistry, geology, geophysics, bathymetry and biology from more than 100 connected data centres from 34 countries riparian to European seas. SeaDataNet is also active in setting and governing marine data standards, and exploring and establishing interoperability solutions to connect to other e-infrastructures on the basis of standards of ISO (19115, 19139), and OGC (WMS, WFS, CS-W and SWE). Standards and associated SeaDataNet tools are made available at the SeaDataNet portal for wide uptake by data handling and managing organisations. SeaDataCloud aims at further developing standards, innovating services & products, adopting new technologies, and giving more attention to users. Moreover, it is about implementing a cooperation between the SeaDataNet consortium of marine data centres and the EUDAT consortium of e-infrastructure service providers. SeaDataCloud aims at considerably advancing services and

  20. Assessing the sampling strategy in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margirier, Félix; Testor, Pierre; Bosse, Anthony; Heslop, Emma; L'Hévéder, Blandine; Arsouze, Thomas; Houpert, Loic; Mortier, Laurent

    2017-04-01

    The deployment of numerous autonomous platforms (gliders, argo floats, moorings) added to the repeated ship cruises in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea account for a considerable data coverage of the area through the past 10 years. In this study, we analyse the in-situ observations' ability to assess for the changes in the Northwester Mediterranean basin water masses properties over time. Comparing the observed time series for the different regions and different water masses to that of a glider simulator in the NEMO-Med12 model, we estimate both the quality of the model and the skill of the in-situ observations in reproducing the evolution of the basin properties.

  1. Beyond just sea-level rise: Considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osland, Michael J.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Day, Richard H.; Gabler, Christopher A.; Stagg, Camille L.; Grace, James B.

    2016-01-01

    Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate-change related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea-level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands.

  2. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Florida's Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senarath, S. U.

    2005-12-01

    Global warming and the resulting melting of polar ice sheets could increase global sea levels significantly. Some studies have predicted mean sea level increases in the order of six inches to one foot in the next 25 to 50 years. This could have severe irreversible impacts on low-lying areas of Florida's Everglades. The key objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of a one foot sea level rise on Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (CSSS) nesting areas within the Everglades National Park (ENP). A regional-scale hydrologic model is used to assess the sensitivities of this sea-level rise scenario. Florida's Everglades supports a unique ecosystem. At present, about 50 percent of this unique ecosystem has been lost due to urbanization and farming. Today, the water flow in the remnant Everglades is also regulated to meet a variety of competing environmental, water-supply and flood-control needs. A 30-year, eight billion dollar (1999 estimate) project has been initiated to improve Everglades' water flows. The expected benefits of this restoration project will be short-lived if the predicted sea level rise causes severe impacts on the environmentally sensitive areas of the Everglades. Florida's Everglades is home to many threatened and endangered species of wildlife. The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow population in the ENP is one such species that is currently listed as endangered. Since these birds build their nests close to the ground surface (the base of the nest is approximately six inches from the ground surface), they are directly affected by any sea level induced ponding depth, frequency or duration change. Therefore, the CSSS population serves as a good indicator species for evaluating the negative impacts of sea level rise on the Everglades' ecosystem. The impact of sea level rise on the CSSS habitat is evaluated using the Regional Simulation Model (RSM) developed by the South Florida Water Management District. The RSM is an implicit, finite-volume, continuous

  3. Mass Evolution of Mediterranean, Black, Red, and Caspian Seas from GRACE and Altimetry: Accuracy Assessment and Solution Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loomis, B. D.; Luthcke, S. B.

    2016-01-01

    We present new measurements of mass evolution for the Mediterranean, Black, Red, and Caspian Seas as determined by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) GRACE time-variable global gravity mascon solutions. These new solutions are compared to sea surface altimetry measurements of sea level anomalies with steric corrections applied. To assess their accuracy, the GRACE and altimetry-derived solutions are applied to the set of forward models used by GSFC for processing the GRACE Level-1B datasets, with the resulting inter-satellite range acceleration residuals providing a useful metric for analyzing solution quality.

  4. Intermittent sea-level acceleration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivieri, M.; Spada, G.

    2013-10-01

    Using instrumental observations from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), we provide a new assessment of the global sea-level acceleration for the last ~ 2 centuries (1820-2010). Our results, obtained by a stack of tide gauge time series, confirm the existence of a global sea-level acceleration (GSLA) and, coherently with independent assessments so far, they point to a value close to 0.01 mm/yr2. However, differently from previous studies, we discuss how change points or abrupt inflections in individual sea-level time series have contributed to the GSLA. Our analysis, based on methods borrowed from econometrics, suggests the existence of two distinct driving mechanisms for the GSLA, both involving a minority of tide gauges globally. The first effectively implies a gradual increase in the rate of sea-level rise at individual tide gauges, while the second is manifest through a sequence of catastrophic variations of the sea-level trend. These occurred intermittently since the end of the 19th century and became more frequent during the last four decades.

  5. Final Report DE-EE0005380: Assessment of Offshore Wind Farm Effects on Sea Surface, Subsurface and Airborne Electronic Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ling, Hao [The University of Texas at Austin; Hamilton, Mark F. [The University of Texas at Austin Applied Research Laboratories; Bhalla, Rajan [Science Applications International Corporation; Brown, Walter E. [The University of Texas at Austin Applied Research Laboratories; Hay, Todd A. [The University of Texas at Austin Applied Research Laboratories; Whitelonis, Nicholas J. [The University of Texas at Austin; Yang, Shang-Te [The University of Texas at Austin; Naqvi, Aale R. [The University of Texas at Austin

    2013-09-30

    Offshore wind energy is a valuable resource that can provide a significant boost to the US renewable energy portfolio. A current constraint to the development of offshore wind farms is the potential for interference to be caused by large wind farms on existing electronic and acoustical equipment such as radar and sonar systems for surveillance, navigation and communications. The US Department of Energy funded this study as an objective assessment of possible interference to various types of equipment operating in the marine environment where offshore wind farms could be installed. The objective of this project was to conduct a baseline evaluation of electromagnetic and acoustical challenges to sea surface, subsurface and airborne electronic systems presented by offshore wind farms. To accomplish this goal, the following tasks were carried out: (1) survey electronic systems that can potentially be impacted by large offshore wind farms, and identify impact assessment studies and research and development activities both within and outside the US, (2) engage key stakeholders to identify their possible concerns and operating requirements, (3) conduct first-principle modeling on the interactions of electromagnetic signals with, and the radiation of underwater acoustic signals from, offshore wind farms to evaluate the effect of such interactions on electronic systems, and (4) provide impact assessments, recommend mitigation methods, prioritize future research directions, and disseminate project findings. This report provides a detailed description of the methodologies used to carry out the study, key findings of the study, and a list of recommendations derived based the findings.

  6. Spiral and Project-Based Learning with Peer Assessment in a Computer Science Project Management Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaime, Arturo; Blanco, José Miguel; Domínguez, César; Sánchez, Ana; Heras, Jónathan; Usandizaga, Imanol

    2016-01-01

    Different learning methods such as project-based learning, spiral learning and peer assessment have been implemented in science disciplines with different outcomes. This paper presents a proposal for a project management course in the context of a computer science degree. Our proposal combines three well-known methods: project-based learning,…

  7. Assessing the role of internal climate variability in Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has the potential to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to AIS mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing the long-term risk of SLR. However, the predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and the internal variability that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of internal variability on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. In this study, we quantify the effect of internal variability on the AIS evolutions by using climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. We find that internal variability of climate fields, particularly atmospheric fields, among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses. Our results show that the internal variability can cause about 80 mm differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean contribution of 380-450 mm. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in the ice sheet model does not produce realistic simulations of the ice loss. Instead, it significantly delays the onset of retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07-0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. Therefore, because the uncertainty caused by internal variability is irreducible, we seek to highlight a critical need to assess the role of internal variability in projecting the AIS loss over the next few centuries. By quantifying the impact of internal variability on AIS contribution to SLR, policy makers can obtain more robust estimates of SLR and implement suitable adaptation strategies.

  8. Thermal Limits and Thresholds of Red Sea Biota

    KAUST Repository

    Chaidez, Veronica

    2018-05-01

    As ocean temperatures continue to rise, the effect of temperature on marine organisms becomes highly relevant. The Red Sea is the warmest sea and is rapidly warming with current surface temperatures (28 – 34 °C) already exceeding those of most tropical systems. This has major consequences for organisms that may already find themselves at their thermal limits. The aim of this project was to define the thermal limits and thresholds of certain Red Sea species. Firstly, to better understand the thermal regimes of the Red Sea, we looked at decadal trends in maximum sea surface temperature across the basin. Then, we tested the thermal capacities of Red Sea mangroves and zooplankton, two key ecological groups, by performing thermal stress experiments in the laboratory. We found that the Red Sea basin is warming faster than the global average (0.17 °C decade-1), the thermal limit of mangrove propagules is between 33 and 35 °C, and the limits among the most common zooplankton groups range from 30 to 36 °C. This project gives us a better understanding of how organisms respond to extreme temperatures and how they may be affected in a future, warmer, ocean.

  9. An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Legeais, Jean-Francois; Ablain, Michael; Zawadzki, Lionel

    2018-01-01

    , the sea level ECV has been measured from space by different altimetry missions that have provided global and regional observations of sea level variations. As part of the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) (established in 2010), the Sea Level project (SL_cci) aimed...... to provide an accurate and homogeneous long-term satellite-based sea level record. At the end of the first phase of the project (2010-2013), an initial version (v1.1) of the sea level ECV was made available to users (Ablain et al., 2015). During the second phase of the project (2014-2017), improved altimeter...

  10. Black Sea coastal forecasting system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Kubryakov

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Black Sea coastal nowcasting and forecasting system was built within the framework of EU FP6 ECOOP (European COastalshelf sea OPerational observing and forecasting system project for five regions: the south-western basin along the coasts of Bulgaria and Turkey, the north-western shelf along the Romanian and Ukrainian coasts, coastal zone around of the Crimea peninsula, the north-eastern Russian coastal zone and the coastal zone of Georgia. The system operates in the real-time mode during the ECOOP project and afterwards. The forecasts include temperature, salinity and current velocity fields. Ecosystem model operates in the off-line mode near the Crimea coast.

  11. An Integrated Assessment Framework of Offshore Wind Power Projects Applying Equator Principles and Social Life Cycle Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Che Tseng

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews offshore wind power project finance and provides an integrated assessment that employs Equator Principles, life cycle assessment, risk assessment, materiality analysis, credit assessment, and ISAE 3000 assurance. We have not seen any comprehensive review papers or book chapters that covers the entire offshore wind power project finance process. We also conducted an SWancor Formosa Phase 1 case study to illustrate the application of integrated assessment to better assist policymakers, wind farm developers, practitioners, potential investors and observers, and stakeholders in their decisions. We believe that this paper can form part of the effort to reduce information asymmetry and the transaction costs of wind power project finance, as well as mobilize green finance investments from the financial sector to renewable energy projects to achieve a national renewable energy policy.

  12. Eutrophication assessment of the Baltic Sea Protected Areas by available data and GIS technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranft, Susanne; Pesch, Roland; Schröder, Winfried; Boedeker, Dieter; Paulomäki, Hanna; Fagerli, Hilde

    2011-01-01

    Concerning increased degradation of marine ecosystems, there is a great political and institutional demand for an array of different tools to restore a good environmental status. Thereby, eutrophication is acknowledged as one of the major human induced stressors which has to be monitored and reduced. The present study concentrates on an assessment of the eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea Protected Areas by use of available data and GIS technologies. Two geodata layers were used for analysis: (1) a map on the eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea generated by the Helsinki Commission applying the HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT), and (2) modelled data on atmospheric nitrogen deposition made available by the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP). The results yielded comprehensive and conclusive data indicating that most of the BSPAs may be classified as being 'affected by eutrophication' and underlining the need to decrease the overall emissions of nutrients. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Southern Salish Sea Habitat Map Series: Admiralty Inlet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochrane, Guy R.; Dethier, Megan N.; Hodson, Timothy O.; Kull, Kristine K.; Golden, Nadine E.; Ritchie, Andrew C.; Moegling, Crescent; Pacunski, Robert E.; Cochrane, Guy R.

    2015-01-01

    In 2010 the Environmental Protection Agency, Region 10 initiated the Puget Sound Scientific Studies and Technical Investigations Assistance Program, designed to support research in support of implementing the Puget Sound Action Agenda. The Action Agenda was created in response to Puget Sound having been designated as one of 28 estuaries of national significance under section 320 of the U.S. Clean Water Act, and its overall goal is to restore the Puget Sound Estuary's environment by 2020. The Southern Salish Sea Mapping Project was funded by the Assistance Program request for proposals process, which also supports a large number of coastal-zone- and ocean-management issues. The issues include the recommendations of the Marine Protected Areas Work Group to the Washington State Legislature (Van Cleve and others, 2009), which endorses a Puget Sound and coast-wide marine conservation needs assessment, gap analysis of existing Marine Protected Areas (MPA) and recommendations for action. This publication is the first of four U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigation Maps that make up the Southern Salish Sea Mapping Project. The remaining three map blocks to be published in the future, located south of Admiralty Inlet, are shown in figure 1.

  14. The role of assessment infrastructures in crafting project-based science classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amico, Laura Marie

    In project-based science teaching, teachers engage students in the practice of conducting meaningful investigations and explanations of natural phenomena, often in collaboration with fellow students or adults. Reformers suggest that this approach can provide students with more profitable learning experiences; but for many teachers, a shift to such instruction can be difficult to manage. As some reform-minded teachers have discovered, classroom assessment can serve as a vital tool for meeting the challenges associated with project science activity. In this research, classroom assessment was viewed as an infrastructure that both students and teachers rely upon as a mediational tool for classroom activity and communications. The study explored the classroom assessment infrastructures created by three teachers involved in the Learning through Collaborative Visualization (CoVis) Project from 1993--94 to 1995--96. Each of the three teachers under study either created a new course or radically reformulated an old one in an effort to incorporate project-based science pedagogy and supporting technologies. Data in the form of interviews, classroom observations, surveys, student work, and teacher records was collected. From these data, an interpretive case study was developed for each course and its accompanying assessment infrastructure. A set of cross-case analyses was also constructed, based upon common themes that emerged from all three cases. These themes included: the assessment challenges based on the nature of project activity, the role of technology in the teachers' assessment infrastructure designs, and the influence of the wider assessment infrastructure on their course and assessment designs. In combination, the case studies and cross-case analyses describe the synergistic relationship between the design of pedagogical reforms and classroom assessment infrastructures, as well as the effectiveness of all three assessment designs. This work contributes to research

  15. Deep-sea geohazards in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Shiguo; Wang, Dawei; Völker, David

    2018-02-01

    Various geological processes and features that might inflict hazards identified in the South China Sea by using new technologies and methods. These features include submarine landslides, pockmark fields, shallow free gas, gas hydrates, mud diapirs and earthquake tsunami, which are widely distributed in the continental slope and reefal islands of the South China Sea. Although the study and assessment of geohazards in the South China Sea came into operation only recently, advances in various aspects are evolving at full speed to comply with National Marine Strategy and `the Belt and Road' Policy. The characteristics of geohazards in deep-water seafloor of the South China Sea are summarized based on new scientific advances. This progress is aimed to aid ongoing deep-water drilling activities and decrease geological risks in ocean development.

  16. TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN THE NORTHERN AEGEAN SEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Theilen-Willige

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Emergency planning for the assessment of tsunami hazard inundation and of secondary effects of erosion and landslides, requires mapping that can help identify coastal areas that are potentially vulnerable. The present study reviews tsunami susceptibility mapping for coastal areas of Turkey and Greece in the Aegean Sea. Potential tsunami vulnerable locations were identified from LANDSAT ETM imageries, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM, 2000 data and QuickBird imageries and from a GIS integrated spatial database. LANDSAT ETM and Digital Elevation Model (DEM data derived by the SRTM-Mission were investigated to help detect traces of past flooding events. LANDSAT ETM imageries, merged with digitally processed and enhanced SRTM data, clearly indicate the areas that may be prone to flooding if catastrophic tsunami events or storm surges occur.

  17. Assessment of Project Website Sustainability: Case of the Arctic EIA Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja H Bickford

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In many cases, temporary websites may be simple, accessible solutions for knowledge management and dissemination of information. However, such sites may become outdated as the funding ends, but yet in many cases, still publicly available through the Internet. The issue of website sustainability is a relevant topic for all organizations that have websites. Website lifecycle, knowledge management, and website sustainability issues are discussed through a theoretical-based literature review. These issues are then summarized and used as lessons learned for the case study approach of this paper. The aim is to identify a solution to address a website’s life and longevity, post project. A practical case study assessment of the issue of project website sustainability is needed to address the website’s longevity—post project—as creation is often made through temporary endeavors. Recommendations for future project websites are made as the outcomes and results of this study and are expressed in the form of suggested practices for project website sustainability in future projects.

  18. Northern Winter Climate Change: Assessment of Uncertainty in CMIP5 Projections Related to Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A.Yu.; Anstey, J.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Baldwin, M.P.; Black, R.X.; Cagnazzo, C.; Calvo, N.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Christiansen, B.; hide

    2014-01-01

    Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.

  19. ACCELERATION OF SEA LEVEL RISE OVER MALAYSIAN SEAS FROM SATELLITE ALTIMETER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. A. Hamid

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS. Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

  20. Acceleration of Sea Level Rise Over Malaysian Seas from Satellite Altimeter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, A. I. A.; Din, A. H. M.; Khalid, N. F.; Omar, K. M.

    2016-09-01

    Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS). Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA) are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

  1. Improved measurements of mean sea surface velocity in the Nordic Seas from synthetic aperture radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wergeland Hansen, Morten; Johnsen, Harald; Engen, Geir; Øie Nilsen, Jan Even

    2017-04-01

    The warm and saline surface Atlantic Water (AW) flowing into the Nordic Seas across the Greenland-Scotland ridge transports heat into the Arctic, maintaining the ice-free oceans and regulating sea-ice extent. The AW influences the region's relatively mild climate and is the northern branch of the global thermohaline overturning circulation. Heat loss in the Norwegian Sea is key for both heat transport and deep water formation. In general, the ocean currents in the Nordic Seas and the North Atlantic Ocean is a complex system of topographically steered barotropic and baroclinic currents of which the wind stress and its variability is a driver of major importance. The synthetic aperture radar (SAR) Doppler centroid shift has been demonstrated to contain geophysical information about sea surface wind, waves and current at an accuracy of 5 Hz and pixel spacing of 3.5 - 9 × 8 km2. This corresponds to a horizontal surface velocity of about 20 cm/s at 35° incidence angle. The ESA Prodex ISAR project aims to implement new and improved SAR Doppler shift processing routines to enable reprocessing of the wide swath acquisitions available from the Envisat ASAR archive (2002-2012) at higher resolution and better accuracy than previously obtained, allowing combined use with Sentinel-1 and Radarsat-2 retrievals to build timeseries of the sea surface velocity in the Nordic Seas. Estimation of the geophysical Doppler shift from new SAR Doppler centroid shift retrievals will be demonstrated, addressing key issues relating to geometric (satellite orbit and attitude) and electronic (antenna mis-pointing) contributions and corrections. Geophysical Doppler shift retrievals from one month of data in January 2010 and the inverted surface velocity in the Nordic Seas are then addressed and compared to other direct and indirect estimates of the upper ocean current, in particular those obtained in the ESA GlobCurrent project.

  2. Incentive-based approaches in marine conservation: Applications for sea turtles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gjertsen Heidi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Conservation practitioners are increasingly turning to incentive-based approaches to encourage local resource users to change behaviors that impact biodiversity and natural habitat. We assess the design and performance of marine conservation interventions with varying types of incentives through an analysis of case studies from around the world. Here we focus on seven examples that are particularly relevant to designing incentives for sea turtle conservation. Four of the cases are focused on sea turtle conservation, and the others contain elements that may be applied to turtle projects. Many more opportunities exist for interventions that combine the strengths of these approaches, such as performance-based agreements that provide funds for education or alternative livelihood development, and leasing fishing rights to reduce bycatch.

  3. Stratigraphy, climate and downhole logging data - an example from the ICDP Dead Sea deep drilling project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coianiz, Lisa; Ben-Avraham, Zvi; Lazar, Michael

    2017-04-01

    During the late Quaternary a series of lakes occupied the Dead Sea tectonic basin. The sediments that accumulated within these lakes preserved the environmental history (tectonic and climatic) of the basin and its vicinity. Most of the information on these lakes was deduced from exposures along the marginal terraces of the modern Dead Sea, e.g. the exposures of the last glacial Lake Lisan and Holocene Dead Sea. The International Continental Drilling Program (ICDP) project conducted in the Dead Sea during 2010-2011 recovered several cores that were drilled in the deep depocenter of the lake (water depth of 300 m) and at the margin (depth of 3 m offshore Ein Gedi spa). New high resolution logging data combined with a detailed lithological description and published age models for the deep 5017-1-A borehole were used to establish a sequence stratigraphic framework for the Lakes Amora, Samra, Lisan and Zeelim strata. This study presents a stratigraphic timescale for reconstructing the last ca 225 ka. It provides a context within which the timing of key sequence surfaces identified in the distal part of the basin can be mapped on a regional and stratigraphic time frame. In addition, it permitted the examination of depositional system tracts and related driving mechanisms controlling their formation. The sequence stratigraphic model developed for the Northern Dead Sea Basin is based on the identification of sequence bounding surfaces including: sequence boundary (SB), transgressive surface (TS) and maximum flooding surface (MFS). They enabled the division of depositional sequences into a Lowstand systems tracts (LST), Transgressive systems tracts (TST) and Highstand systems tracts (HST), which can be interpreted in terms of relative lake level changes. The analysis presented here show that system tract stacking patterns defined for the distal 5017-1-A borehole can be correlated to the proximal part of the basin, and widely support the claim that changes in relative lake

  4. Peer Assessment in Engineering Group Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Triantafyllou, Eva; Timcenko, Olga

    2014-01-01

    Peer review has proved to be beneficial in project-based environments by involving students in the process and encouraging them to take ownership of their learning. This article reviews how peer assessment has been employed within group work for different engineering programs. Since the administr...

  5. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F; Mcdonald, Trent L; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Richardson, Evan S; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George M; Atwood, Todd; Amstrup, Steven C

    2015-04-01

    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606-1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

  6. Strategic environmental assessment for UK LLW management - 16392

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Craze, Andrew; Clark, Matthew; Davis, Pete

    2009-01-01

    NDA is delivering a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) to underpin the UK Nuclear Industry Low Level Waste Strategy. The purpose of this assessment is embed sustainability issues into our decision making and to fulfill our requirements under the European Union's Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Directive (2004/42/EU) and transposing UK Regulations, and to underpin the development of the strategy. The outputs of the SEA have provided input into particular aspects of the strategy, leading to a more robust and better informed result. Development of options to be assessed under the SEA has looked at a number of factors, including: - what the strategy is aiming to achieve - expectation from stakeholders as to what should be addressed - consideration of tactical approaches to implementation of the strategy in addition to high level strategic issues - links to other projects and programmes (for example the Environmental Safety Case for the Low Level Waste Repository. The SEA aims to provide a robust assessment of the environmental and sustainability impacts of alternative strategies for providing continued capability and capacity for the management and disposal of LLW in the UK. The assessment also considers other, more tactical, issues around implementation of the strategy, for example: issues around the location of LLW management facilities; the environmental impacts of alternative waste treatment options (metal recycling etc); considerations of alternative approaches to the classification of radioactive waste and opportunities that would result. Critical to the development of the SEA has been the involvement of statutory and non-statutory stakeholders, who have informed both the output and the approach taken. (authors)

  7. Social Impact Assessment : Guidance for assessing and managing the social impacts of projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanclay, Francis; Esteves, Ana Maria; Aucamp, Ilse; Franks, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this Guidance Note is to provide advice to various stakeholders about what is expected in good practice social impact assessment (SIA) and social impact management processes, especially in relation to project development. Project development refers to dams, mines, oil and gas

  8. Life Cycle Assessments of Manure Management Techniques for the Baltic Sea Regions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamelin, Lorie; Baky, A; Cano-Bernal, J

    The report summarizes the key results of the consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs) carried out for a variety of manure management techniques over the Baltic Sea Regions (BSR). For all manure management technologies assessed, the environmental impacts (in terms of potential to global warming......, acidification of aquatic & terrestrial systems as well as phosphorus and nitrogen enrichment) are evaluated along the whole “manure management chain”, quantified and compared to the applying reference manure management system. The LCA results presented in this report cover 4 main manure types (dairy cow slurry....... Assessed separation technologies include concentration technologies, state-of-the-art decanter centrifuge and source-separation technologies. The energy production technologies addressed consist of thermal gasification, incineration and anaerobic digestion (for which a myriad of carbon co...

  9. Past and present Aral Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dukhovniy, Viktor; Stulina, Galina; Eshchanov, Odylbek

    2013-04-01

    The tragedy of disappearing of Aral Sea is well known to the World. Before and after collapse of Soviet Union, a huge quantity of scientific and popular editions described with grief the situation around the Aral Sea. After the NIS states became independent, World Bank, UNDP, UNEP in proper competition with each other had provided some assessment of the situation through presentation of some small and medium grants, but after 2000, the local population remained alone with own problems. Although on the eyes of the present generation a unique transformation of great water body into deserts took place, the global scientific community did not find forces and financing for real and detail investigation of the processes accompanying the Sea shrinking and land formation. We should acknowledge and give big respect to NATO, later to German Government that through GTZ (now GIZ) - German International Collaboration Agency - and GFZ (Potzdam) paid attention to this area of environment crisis and organized scientific and protective design in the so-called Priaralie - the territory around the drying Sea and delta of the two rivers - Amudarya and Syrdarya. Thank to this assistance, the local specialists in collaboration with limited a number of foreign scientists (N.Aladin, P.Zavialov, Joop de Schutter, Hans Wilps, Hedi Oberhansli) organized significant works for detail socioeconomic, ecological and hydrological assessment situation in Priaralie and on the Aral sea coast. On this base, Ministry of Agriculture and Water resources of Uzbekistan and State Committee of Water resources of Kazakhstan developed a plan of rehabilitation of Amudarya and Syrdarya deltas and started implementation of these projects. If Kazakh water authority moved ahead in wetland restoration faster, a forestation of delta and drying bed of Aral Sea got big success in Uzbek territory. 244 thousands hectares of saxsaul and tamarix were planted for protection of the Priaralie. By request of GTZ SIC, ICWC

  10. Distribution coefficients (Kd's) for use in risk assessment models of the Kara Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, J; Boisson, F; Teyssie, J L; King, S E; Krosshavn, M; Carroll, M L; Fowler, S W; Povinec, P P; Baxter, M S

    1999-07-01

    As a prerequisite for most evaluations of radionuclide transport pathways in marine systems, it is necessary to obtain basic information on the sorption potential of contaminants onto particulate matter. Kd values for use in modeling radionuclide dispersion in the Kara Sea have been determined as part of several international programs addressing the problem of radioactive debris residing in Arctic Seas. Field and laboratory Kd experiments were conducted for the following radionuclides associated with nuclear waste: americium, europium, plutonium, cobalt, cesium and strontium. Emphasis has been placed on two regions in the Kara Sea: (i) the Novaya Zemlya Trough (NZT) and (ii) the mixing zones of the Ob and Yenisey Rivers (RMZ). Short-term batch Kd experiments were performed at-sea on ambient water column samples and on samples prepared both at-sea and in the laboratory by mixing filtered bottom water with small amounts of surficial bottom sediments (particle concentrations in samples = 1-30 mg/l). Within both regions, Kd values for individual radionuclides vary over two to three orders of magnitude. The relative particle affinities for radionuclides in the two regions are americium approximately equal to europium > plutonium > cobalt > cesium > strontium. The values determined in this study agree with minimum values given in the IAEA Technical Report [IAEA, 1985. Sediment Kd's and Concentration Factors for Radionuclides in the Marine Environment. Technical Report No. 247. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna.]. Given the importance of Kd's in assessments of critical transport pathways for radionuclide contaminants, we recommend that Kd ranges of values for specific elements rather than single mean values be incorporated into model simulations of radionuclide dispersion.

  11. Offshore Wind Resources Assessment from Multiple Satellite Data and WRF Modeling over South China Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chang, Rui; Rong, Zhu; Badger, Merete

    2015-01-01

    offshore winds which can be used for offshore wind resource assessment. First, wind speeds retrieved from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Scatterometer ASCAT images were validated against in situ measurements from seven coastal meteorological stations in South China Sea (SCS). The wind roses from...... (SD) of 2.09 m/s (1.83 m/s) and correlation coefficient of R 0.75 (0.80). When the offshore winds (i.e., winds directed from land to sea) are excluded, the comparison results for wind speeds show an improvement of SD and R, indicating that the satellite data are more credible over the open ocean...

  12. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Neumann

    Full Text Available Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential

  13. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

  14. Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

  15. Uncertainties in Future Regional Sea Level Trends: How to Deal with the Internal Climate Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

    2017-12-01

    Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.

  16. ASSESSMENT OF SEA ICE FREEBOARD AND THICKNESS IN MCMURDO SOUND, ANTARCTICA, DERIVED BY GROUND VALIDATED SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Price

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This investigation employs the use of ICESat to derive freeboard measurements in McMurdo Sound in the western Ross Sea, Antarctica, for the time period 2003-2009. Methods closely follow those previously presented in the literature but are complemented by a good understanding of general sea ice characteristics in the study region from extensive temporal ground investigations but with limited spatial coverage. The aim of remote sensing applications in this area is to expand the good knowledge of sea ice characteristics within these limited areas to the wider McMurdo Sound and western Ross Sea region. The seven year Austral Spring (September, October, and November investigation is presented for sea ice freeboard alone. An interannual comparison of mean freeboard indicates an increase in multiyear sea ice freeboard from 1.08 m in 2003 to 1.15 m in 2009 with positive and negative variation in between. No significant trend was detected for first year sea ice freeboard. Further, an Envisat imagery investigation complements the freeboard assessment. The multiyear sea ice was observed to increase by 254 % of its original 2003 area, as firstyear sea ice persisted through the 2004 melt season into 2005. This maximum coverage then gradually diminished by 2009 to 20 % above the original 2003 value. The mid study period increase is likely attributed to the passage of iceberg B-15A minimising oceanic pressures and preventing sea ice breakout in the region.

  17. Operational SAR-based sea ice drift monitoring over the Baltic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Karvonen

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available An algorithm for computing ice drift from pairs of synthetic aperture radar (SAR images covering a common area has been developed at FMI. The algorithm has been developed based on the C-band SAR data over the Baltic Sea. It is based on phase correlation in two scales (coarse and fine with some additional constraints. The algorithm has been running operationally in the Baltic Sea from the beginning of 2011, using Radarsat-1 ScanSAR wide mode and Envisat ASAR wide swath mode data. The resulting ice drift fields are publicly available as part of the MyOcean EC project. The SAR-based ice drift vectors have been compared to the drift vectors from drifter buoys in the Baltic Sea during the first operational season, and also these validation results are shown in this paper. Also some navigationally useful sea ice quantities, which can be derived from ice drift vector fields, are presented.

  18. Project W-151 Tank 101-AZ Waste Retrieval System Year 2000 Compliance Assessment Project Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BUSSELL, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    This document contains a limited assessment of Year 2000 compliance for Project W-151. Additional information is provided as a road map to project documents and other references that may be used to verify Year 2000 compliance

  19. Walrus areas of use in the Chukchi Sea during sparse sea ice cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jay, Chadwick V.; Fischbach, Anthony S.; Kochnev, Anatoly A.

    2012-01-01

    The Pacific walrus Odobenus rosmarus divergens feeds on benthic invertebrates on the continental shelf of the Chukchi and Bering Seas and rests on sea ice between foraging trips. With climate warming, ice-free periods in the Chukchi Sea have increased and are projected to increase further in frequency and duration. We radio-tracked walruses to estimate areas of walrus foraging and occupancy in the Chukchi Sea from June to November of 2008 to 2011, years when sea ice was sparse over the continental shelf in comparison to historical records. The earlier and more extensive sea ice retreat in June to September, and delayed freeze-up of sea ice in October to November, created conditions for walruses to arrive earlier and stay later in the Chukchi Sea than in the past. The lack of sea ice over the continental shelf from September to October caused walruses to forage in nearshore areas instead of offshore areas as in the past. Walruses did not frequent the deep waters of the Arctic Basin when sea ice retreated off the shelf. Walruses foraged in most areas they occupied, and areas of concentrated foraging generally corresponded to regions of high benthic biomass, such as in the northeastern (Hanna Shoal) and southwestern Chukchi Sea. A notable exception was the occurrence of concentrated foraging in a nearshore area of northwestern Alaska that is apparently depauperate in walrus prey. With increasing sea ice loss, it is likely that walruses will increase their use of coastal haul-outs and nearshore foraging areas, with consequences to the population that are yet to be understood.

  20. Extrapolating cetacean densities to quantitatively assess human impacts on populations in the high seas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannocci, Laura; Roberts, Jason J; Miller, David L; Halpin, Patrick N

    2017-06-01

    As human activities expand beyond national jurisdictions to the high seas, there is an increasing need to consider anthropogenic impacts to species inhabiting these waters. The current scarcity of scientific observations of cetaceans in the high seas impedes the assessment of population-level impacts of these activities. We developed plausible density estimates to facilitate a quantitative assessment of anthropogenic impacts on cetacean populations in these waters. Our study region extended from a well-surveyed region within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone into a large region of the western North Atlantic sparsely surveyed for cetaceans. We modeled densities of 15 cetacean taxa with available line transect survey data and habitat covariates and extrapolated predictions to sparsely surveyed regions. We formulated models to reduce the extent of extrapolation beyond covariate ranges, and constrained them to model simple and generalizable relationships. To evaluate confidence in the predictions, we mapped where predictions were made outside sampled covariate ranges, examined alternate models, and compared predicted densities with maps of sightings from sources that could not be integrated into our models. Confidence levels in model results depended on the taxon and geographic area and highlighted the need for additional surveying in environmentally distinct areas. With application of necessary caution, our density estimates can inform management needs in the high seas, such as the quantification of potential cetacean interactions with military training exercises, shipping, fisheries, and deep-sea mining and be used to delineate areas of special biological significance in international waters. Our approach is generally applicable to other marine taxa and geographic regions for which management will be implemented but data are sparse. © 2016 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

  1. 15 CFR 917.11 - Guidelines for Sea Grant Fellowships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... percent matching funds from non-Federal sources to which all Matched Funding Program projects are subject... NATIONAL SEA GRANT PROGRAM FUNDING REGULATIONS Sea Grant Matched Funding Program § 917.11 Guidelines for... applications for Sea Grant Fellowship funding. (b) Funding will be made to eligible entities (see § 917.10 of...

  2. The Ross Sea Dipole - temperature, snow accumulation and sea ice variability in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica, over the past 2700 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertler, Nancy A. N.; Conway, Howard; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Emanuelsson, Daniel B.; Winstrup, Mai; Vallelonga, Paul T.; Lee, James E.; Brook, Ed J.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.; Fudge, Taylor J.; Keller, Elizabeth D.; Baisden, W. Troy; Hindmarsh, Richard C. A.; Neff, Peter D.; Blunier, Thomas; Edwards, Ross; Mayewski, Paul A.; Kipfstuhl, Sepp; Buizert, Christo; Canessa, Silvia; Dadic, Ruzica; Kjær, Helle A.; Kurbatov, Andrei; Zhang, Dongqi; Waddington, Edwin D.; Baccolo, Giovanni; Beers, Thomas; Brightley, Hannah J.; Carter, Lionel; Clemens-Sewall, David; Ciobanu, Viorela G.; Delmonte, Barbara; Eling, Lukas; Ellis, Aja; Ganesh, Shruthi; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Haines, Skylar; Handley, Michael; Hawley, Robert L.; Hogan, Chad M.; Johnson, Katelyn M.; Korotkikh, Elena; Lowry, Daniel P.; Mandeno, Darcy; McKay, Robert M.; Menking, James A.; Naish, Timothy R.; Noerling, Caroline; Ollive, Agathe; Orsi, Anaïs; Proemse, Bernadette C.; Pyne, Alexander R.; Pyne, Rebecca L.; Renwick, James; Scherer, Reed P.; Semper, Stefanie; Simonsen, Marius; Sneed, Sharon B.; Steig, Eric J.; Tuohy, Andrea; Ulayottil Venugopal, Abhijith; Valero-Delgado, Fernando; Venkatesh, Janani; Wang, Feitang; Wang, Shimeng; Winski, Dominic A.; Winton, V. Holly L.; Whiteford, Arran; Xiao, Cunde; Yang, Jiao; Zhang, Xin

    2018-02-01

    High-resolution, well-dated climate archives provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamic interactions of climate patterns relevant for future projections. Here, we present data from a new, annually dated ice core record from the eastern Ross Sea, named the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core. Comparison of this record with climate reanalysis data for the 1979-2012 interval shows that RICE reliably captures temperature and snow precipitation variability in the region. Trends over the past 2700 years in RICE are shown to be distinct from those in West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea captured by other ice cores. For most of this interval, the eastern Ross Sea was warming (or showing isotopic enrichment for other reasons), with increased snow accumulation and perhaps decreased sea ice concentration. However, West Antarctica cooled and the western Ross Sea showed no significant isotope temperature trend. This pattern here is referred to as the Ross Sea Dipole. Notably, during the Little Ice Age, West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea experienced colder than average temperatures, while the eastern Ross Sea underwent a period of warming or increased isotopic enrichment. From the 17th century onwards, this dipole relationship changed. All three regions show current warming, with snow accumulation declining in West Antarctica and the eastern Ross Sea but increasing in the western Ross Sea. We interpret this pattern as reflecting an increase in sea ice in the eastern Ross Sea with perhaps the establishment of a modern Roosevelt Island polynya as a local moisture source for RICE.

  3. Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Normally, transport project assessment is based upon a cost-benefit approach where evaluation criteria such as net present values are obtained. Recent research...... construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This stochastic approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA), thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts on the preliminary...

  4. Preliminary assessment of potential CDM early start projects in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyers, S.; Sathaye, J.; Lehman, B.; Schumacher, K.; van Vliet, O.; Moreira, J.R.

    2000-11-01

    The Brazil/US Aspen Global Forum on Climate Change Policies and Programs has facilitated a dialogue between key Brazil and US public and private sector leaders on the subject of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). With support from the US government, a cooperative effort between Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of Sao Paulo conducted an assessment of a number of projects put forth by Brazilian sponsors. Initially, we gathered information and conducted a screening assessment for ten projects in the energy sector and six projects in the forestry sector. Some of the projects appeared to offer greater potential to be attractive for CDM, or had better information available. We then conducted a more detailed assessment of 12 of these projects, and two other projects that were submitted after the initial screening. An important goal was to assess the potential impact of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) on the financial performance of projects. With the exception of the two forestry-based fuel displacement projects, the impact of CERs on the internal rate of return (IRR) is fairly small. This is true for both the projects that displace grid electricity and those that displace local (diesel-based) electricity production. The relative effect of CERs is greater for projects whose IRR without CERs is low. CERs have a substantial effect on the IRR of the two short-rotation forestry energy substitution projects. One reason is that the biofuel displaces coke and oil, both of which are carbon-intensive. Another factor is that the product of these projects (charcoal and woodfuel, respectively) is relatively low value, so the revenue from carbon credits has a strong relative impact. CERs also have a substantial effect on the NPV of the carbon sequestration projects. Financial and other barriers pose a challenge for implementation of most of the projects. In most cases, the sponsor lacks sufficient capital, and loans are available only at high interest

  5. Assessment of the sardine (Sardina pilchardus Walbaum, 1792 fishery in the eastern Mediterranean basin (North Aegean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. ANTONAKAKIS

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to describe the biometric characteristics of the European sardine (Sardina pilchardus catches and assess the current status of sardine stock in North Aegean Sea based on population characteristics and abundance trends. The stock was dominated by age groups 1 and 2, not exceeding age group 4. The sardine stock in this area was assessed through an Integrated Catch-at-Age model which implements a separable Virtual Population Analysis on catch at age data with weighted tuning indices. Sardine landings data derived from the commercial purse seine fishery over the period 2000-2008 were combined with the age structure of the stock as resulted from fisheries independent acoustic surveys. Sensitivity analysis of the impact of natural mortality values on stock assessment results was applied. Additionally forecast of the sardine population parameters and catches under different exploitation scenarios was implemented in a medium term basis. Results indicated that the North Aegean Sea sardine stock is considered fully exploited with the fishery operating close but over the empirical exploitation level for sustainability. Finally, the status of the sardine stock in N. Aegean Sea is discussed in relation to the sardine stocks from the western and the central Mediterranean basin.

  6. Tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and extreme sea-level projections along the east coast of India in a future climate scenario

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; RameshKumar, M.R.; Sindhu, B.

    (2071– 2100), A2. The analysis showed an increase in the frequency of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal during the late monsoon (August and September) in the A2 scenario compared to the baseline scenario. Extreme sea-level projections along the east coast...

  7. Meta-Assessment in a Project-Based Systems Engineering Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wengrowicz, Niva; Dori, Yehudit Judy; Dori, Dov

    2017-01-01

    Project-based learning (PBL) facilitates significant learning, but it poses a major assessment challenge for assessing individual content knowledge. We developed and implemented an assessment approach and tool for a mandatory undergraduate systems engineering PBL-based course. We call this type of assessment "student-oriented"…

  8. Beyond just sea-level rise: considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osland, Michael J; Enwright, Nicholas M; Day, Richard H; Gabler, Christopher A; Stagg, Camille L; Grace, James B

    2016-01-01

    Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate change-related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea-level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  9. Mind the gap in SEA: An institutional perspective on why assessment of synergies amongst climate change mitigation, adaptation and other policy areas are missing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vammen Larsen, Sanne; Kørnøv, Lone; Wejs, Anja

    2012-01-01

    This article takes its point of departure in two approaches to integrating climate change into Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA): Mitigation and adaptation, and in the fact that these, as well as the synergies between them and other policy areas, are needed as part of an integrated assessment and policy response. First, the article makes a review of how positive and negative synergies between a) climate change mitigation and adaptation and b) climate change and other environmental concerns are integrated into Danish SEA practice. Then, the article discusses the implications of not addressing synergies. Finally, the article explores institutional explanations as to why synergies are not addressed in SEA practice. A document analysis of 149 Danish SEA reports shows that only one report comprises the assessment of synergies between mitigation and adaptation, whilst 9,4% of the reports assess the synergies between climate change and other environmental concerns. The consequences of separation are both the risk of trade-offs and missed opportunities for enhancing positive synergies. In order to propose explanations for the lacking integration, the institutional background is analysed and discussed, mainly based on Scott's theory of institutions. The institutional analysis highlights a regulatory element, since the assessment of climate change synergies is underpinned by legislation, but not by guidance. This means that great focus is on normative elements such as the local interpretation of legislation and of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The analysis also focuses on how the fragmentation of the organisation in which climate change and SEA are embedded has bearings on both normative and cultural–cognitive elements. This makes the assessment of synergies challenging. The evidence gathered and presented in the article points to a need for developing the SEA process and methodology in Denmark with the aim to include climate change in the assessments in

  10. IFREMER-ADEME colloquium 'Offshore renewable energies: offshore wind energy - sea currents and waves. Collection of abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-10-01

    This document contains programme and abstracts of contributions presented during a colloquium. These contributions first addresses the context, and regulatory and economic aspects of offshore wind and sea energy: specificities related to the Public Maritime Domain for the implantation of offshore wind turbines, economy of sea energies within a perspective of de-carbonation of the world energy sector, case of offshore wind turbines and assessment of economic impacts of the implantation of sea renewable energy production units, financing stakes for offshore wind energy projects. A second set of contribution addresses the state-of -the-art and feedbacks for offshore wind energy installations. The third set addresses the assessment of resource potential, measurements, models and production prediction for offshore wind energy: case of French coasts, use of radar for remote sensing, wind climatology modelling, data acquisition for wind farm and data processing. The fourth set of contributions addresses the state-of-the-art, feedback, and R and D for sea current energy, while the fifth one addressed the same aspects for sea wave energy. Technology, installations, maintenance and storage in the field of wind energy are then addressed, and the last set deals with environmental and social-economical impacts of sea renewable energies

  11. Addressing cumulative effects through strategic environmental assessment: a case study of small hydro development in Newfoundland, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnell, S.; Storey, K.

    2000-01-01

    Environmental assessment (EA) is widely used as a means of incorporating environmental considerations into decision-making, primarily at the project level. The scope of EA has been expanded considerably in recent years to include earlier stages of the decision-making process, namely, policies, plans and programmes. Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) facilitates a planning approach to addressing the overall, cumulative effects of the projects that occur as a result of these decisions. This paper demonstrates the potential benefits of SEA in the assessment and management of cumulative effects, using a case study of recent hydroelectric development planning in Newfoundland, Canada. It goes on to illustrate how SEA could be used to address potential cumulative effects at the various stages of such a decision-making process. Through the case study, the paper also explores a number of issues in the implementation of such a planning approach. (author)

  12. 77 FR 68723 - Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Summer Flounder, Scup, and Black Sea Bass Fisheries...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-16

    ... flounder, scup, black sea bass, longfin squid, butterfish, and Atlantic bluefish fisheries. If the total... of butterfish; and 715,830 lb of bluefish. For 2014, projects may collectively be awarded up to 587... Atlantic bluefish, and assessment-quality data for weakfish, Atlantic croaker, spot, several skate and ray...

  13. Assessing Embodied Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Infrastructure Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Krantz

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Greenhouse gas (GHG emissions from construction processes are a serious concern globally. Of the several approaches taken to assess emissions, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA based methods do not just take into account the construction phase, but consider all phases of the life cycle of the construction. However, many current LCA approaches make general assumptions regarding location and effects, which do not do justice to the inherent dynamics of normal construction projects. This study presents a model to assess the embodied energy and associated GHG emissions, which is specifically adapted to address the dynamics of infrastructure construction projects. The use of the model is demonstrated on the superstructure of a prefabricated bridge. The findings indicate that Building Information Models/Modeling (BIM and Discrete Event Simulation (DES can be used to efficiently generate project-specific data, which is needed for estimating the embodied energy and associated GHG emissions in construction settings. This study has implications for the advancement of LCA-based methods (as well as project management as a way of assessing embodied energy and associated GHG emissions related to construction.

  14. An assessment of the wind re-analyses in the modelling of an extreme sea state in the Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akpinar, Adem; Ponce de León, S.

    2016-03-01

    This study aims at an assessment of wind re-analyses for modelling storms in the Black Sea. A wind-wave modelling system (Simulating WAve Nearshore, SWAN) is applied to the Black Sea basin and calibrated with buoy data for three recent re-analysis wind sources, namely the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim (ERA-Interim), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) during an extreme wave condition that occurred in the north eastern part of the Black Sea. The SWAN model simulations are carried out for default and tuning settings for deep water source terms, especially whitecapping. Performances of the best model configurations based on calibration with buoy data are discussed using data from the JASON2, TOPEX-Poseidon, ENVISAT and GFO satellites. The SWAN model calibration shows that the best configuration is obtained with Janssen and Komen formulations with whitecapping coefficient (Cds) equal to 1.8e-5 for wave generation by wind and whitecapping dissipation using ERA-Interim. In addition, from the collocated SWAN results against the satellite records, the best configuration is determined to be the SWAN using the CFSR winds. Numerical results, thus show that the accuracy of a wave forecast will depend on the quality of the wind field and the ability of the SWAN model to simulate the waves under extreme wind conditions in fetch limited wave conditions.

  15. Assessment of ground transportation stress in juvenile Kemp's ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Kathleen E; Innis, Charles J; Kennedy, Adam E; McNally, Kerry L; Davis, Deborah G; Burgess, Elizabeth A; Merigo, Constance

    2016-01-01

    Sea turtle rehabilitation centres frequently transport sea turtles for long distances to move animals between centres or to release them at beaches, yet there is little information on the possible effects of transportation-related stress ('transport stress') on sea turtles. To assess whether transport stress is a clinically relevant concern for endangered Kemp's ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii), we obtained pre-transport and post-transport plasma samples from 26 juvenile Kemp's ridley sea turtles that were transported for 13 h (n = 15 turtles) or 26 h (n = 11 turtles) by truck for release at beaches. To control for effects of handling, food restriction and time of day, the same turtles were also studied on 'control days' 2 weeks prior to transport, i.e. with two samples taken to mimic pre-transport and post-transport timing, but without transportation. Blood samples were analysed for nine clinical health measures (pH, pCO2, pO2, HCO3, sodium, potassium, ionized calcium, lactate and haematocrit) and four 'stress-associated' parameters (corticosterone, glucose, white blood cell count and heterophil-to-lymphocyte ratio). Vital signs (heart rate, respiratory rate and cloacal temperature) were also monitored. Corticosterone and glucose showed pronounced elevations due specifically to transportation; for corticosterone, this elevation was significant only for the longer transport duration, whereas glucose increased significantly after both transport durations. However, clinical health measures and vital signs showed minimal or no changes in response to any sampling event (with or without transport), and all turtles appeared to be in good clinical health after both transport durations. Thus, transportation elicits a mild, but detectable, adrenal stress response that is more pronounced during longer durations of transport; nonetheless, Kemp's ridley sea turtles can tolerate ground transportation of up to 26 h in good health. These results are likely

  16. Geochemical and palynological sea-level proxies in hemipelagic sediments: A critical assessment from the Upper Cretaceous of the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Olde, K.; Jarvis, I.; Uličný, David; Pearce, M. A.; Trabucho-Alexandre, J.; Čech, S.; Gröcke, D. R.; Laurin, Jiří; Švábenická, L.; Tocher, B. A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 435, October (2015), s. 222-243 ISSN 0031-0182 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP210/10/1991 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : sea - level change * Cretaceous * chemostratigraphy Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 2.525, year: 2015

  17. The use of cryopreserved sea urchin embryos (Paracentrotus lividus) in marine quality assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, E; Bellas, J

    2015-06-01

    We have established for first time an ecotoxicological bioassay using cryopreserved sea urchin embryos (Paracentotus lividus) and provided a comparison to the already standardized sea urchin embryo-larval bioassay, using selected (organic and inorganic) pollutants and sediment elutriates from 4 different locations from Ria de Vigo harbour (Galicia, NW Iberian Peninsula). A cryopreservation protocol was designed in order to enable the successful cryopreservation and cryobanking of gametes and embryos to be used for marine quality assessment and ensure the accessibility to high quality reproductive material all year round, as an option to conditioning adults for out of season reproduction. The calculated EC50 using the cryopreserved blastula was 53.7 μg L(-1) for copper, 81.0 μg L(-1) for lead, 300.6 μg L(-1) for BP-3 and 300.6 μg L(-1) for 4-MBC. The sensitivity of the classic sea urchin embryo-larval bioassay was compared with the bioassay conducted with cryopreserved blastula. The results showed that the use of cryopreserved blastula bioassay allows detecting lower concentrations of pollutants in comparison with the classic bioassay. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Iterative performance assessments as a regulatory tool for evaluating repository safety: How experiences from SKI Project-90 were used in formulating the new performance assessment project SITE-94

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, J.

    1993-01-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, SKI, regulatory research program has to prepare for the process of licensing a repository for spent nuclear fuel, by building up the necessary knowledge and review capacity. SKIs main strategy for meeting this demand is to develop an independent performance assessment capability. SKIs first own performance assessment project, Project-90, was completed in 1991 and is now followed by a new project, SITE-94. SITE-94 is based on conclusions reached within Project-90. An independent review of Project-90, carried out by a NEA team of experts, has also contributed to the formation of the project. Another important reason for the project is that the implementing organization in Sweden, SKB, has proposed to submit an application to start detailed investigation of a repository candidate site around 1997. SITE-94 is a performance assessment of a hypothetical repository at a real site. The main objective of the project is to determine how site specific data should be assimilated into the performance assessment process, and to evaluate how uncertainties inherent in site characterization will influence performance assessment results. This will be addressed by exploring multiple interpretations, conceptual models, and parameters consistent with the site data. The site evaluation will strive for consistency between geological, hydrological, rock mechanical, and geochemical descriptions. Other important elements of SITE-94 are the development of a practical and defensible methodology for defining, constructing and analyzing scenarios, the development of approaches for treatment of uncertainties, evaluation of canister integrity, and the development and application of an appropriate quality assurance plan for performance assessments

  19. SPI Project Criticality Task Force initial review and assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKinley, K.B.; Cannon, J.W.; Marsden, R.S.; Worle, H.A.

    1980-03-01

    The Slagging Pyrolysis Incinerator (SPI) Facility is being developed to process transuranic waste stored and buried at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) into a chemically inert, physically stable, basalt-like residue acceptable for a Federal Repository. A task force was established by the SPI Project Division to review and assess all aspects of criticality safety for the SPI Facility. This document presents the initial review, evaluations, and recommendations of the task force and includes the following: background information on waste characterization, and criticality control approaches and philosophies, a description of the SPI Facility Waste Processing Building, a review and assessment of potentially relevant codes and regulations; a review and assessment of the present state of criticality and assaying/monitoring studies, and recommendations for changes in and additions to these studies. The review and assessment of potentially relevant codes and regulations indicate that ERDAM 0530, Nuclear Criticality Safety should be the controlling document for criticality safety for the SPI Project. In general, the criticality control approaches and philosophies for the SPI Project comply with this document

  20. Project assessment for construction of new nuclear facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    Project risk management is an important and integral part of project and quality management. It is also a key part of the due diligence process in making informed project decisions where in addition to the qualitative assessments quantitative ones shall be used to the extend practical. As part of the risk management process, risk identification, evaluation and mitigation must be an on-going activity at senior management levels throughout the planning, design, construction and commissioning phases of a new NPP

  1. Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2008-01-01

    functions. New research proved that specifically two impacts stood out in transport project assessment, namely, travel time savings and construction costs. The final concern of this study has been the fitting of distributions, e.g. by the use of data from major databases developed in which Optimism Bias...... choosing probability distributions and performing real term data fits. The perspective of this Ph.D. study presents newer and better understanding of assigning risks within assessment of transport projects....

  2. Prerequisites for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in Sweden - a synthesis of the Baltic Sea Project; Foerutsaettningar foer avskiljning och lagring av koldioxid (CCS) i Sverige - En syntes av Oestersjoeprojektet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gode, Jenny; Stigson, Peter; Hoeglund, Jonas; Bingel, Eva

    2011-07-01

    This publication summarizes a project on carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the Baltic region conducted at the initiative of the Energy Agency. The project is called 'the Baltic Project' and the aim has been to highlight the prospects for CCS in Sweden and how the Baltic Sea region affects this

  3. MEASURING THE PERFORMANCE OF GUYANA’S CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY USING A SET OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE BENCHMARKING METRICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher J. Willis

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A study measuring the performance of Guyana’s construction industry using a set of project performance benchmarking metrics was recently completed. The underlying premise of the study was that the aggregated performance of construction projects provides a realistic assessment of the performance of the construction industry, on the basis that construction projects are the mechanism through which the construction industry creates its tangible products. The fact that an influential government agency acted as owner of the study was critical to the data collection phase. The best approach for collecting project performance data in Guyana involves the utilisation of a researcher or team of researchers mining electronic and hard copy project documents. This study analysed approximately 270 construction projects to obtain an indication of the performance of guyana’s construction industry. It was found that sea defence projects performed the worst, whereas health facility projects performed the best. The main implication of this is that sea defence projects are likely to be the least efficient and, given their critical nature, there is an argument for urgent performance improvement interventions.

  4. The Text of the Agreement concerning a Research Project in Monaco on the Effects of Radioactivity in the Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1961-04-07

    The text of the agreement, which came into force on 10 March 1961 between the Agency, the Government of the Principality of Monaco and the Oceanographic Institute, Fondation Prince Albert I{sup er} de Monaco, concerning a research project on the effects of radioactivity in the sea, to be undertaken under the supervision of the Agency in Monaco, is reproduced in this document for the information of all Members of the Agency.

  5. Is HIA the most effective tool to assess the impact on health of climate change mitigation policies at the local level? A case study in Geneva, Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diallo, Thierno; Cantoreggi, Nicola; Simos, Jean; Christie, Derek P T H

    2017-06-01

    This study aims to understand how the health dimension is integrated into four impact assessment tools used in Geneva, Switzerland: environmental impact assessment (EIA), strategic environmental assessment (SEA), sustainability assessment (SA) and health impact assessment (HIA). We have chosen as a case study greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction policies chosen by the city of Geneva. The methodological approach consists in analysing EIA, SEA, SA and HIA conducted on three projects in three topic areas: urban planning, heating and transportation. These projects are: a complex urbanisation plan in an urban neighbourhood in Geneva (the Gare des Eaux-Vives project), a sustainable transportation plan for a central district in Geneva (the St-Gervais transportation project) and a strategy to encourage the City's employees to use sustainable transport for local business travel. The results show some shortcomings in the consideration of health in SEA, EIA and SA. This work highlights a narrow vision of health in SEA and EIA, limiting itself to a review of the effects of projects on the determinants of the physical environment as required by the legislation relating to these tools. EIA does not require the integration of the health dimension. As for SA, our research found that health is treated much more superficially than in HIA and primarily through the analysis of 'health and safety' criteria. It appears from this work that HIA is the tool which provides the most elaborate assessment, compared to SA, SEA or EIA, of the consequences for health of the GHG reduction policies chosen by the local decision-makers of a city. However, our study suggests that the HIA community should identify the situations in which HIA should be carried out and in which cases it is better to include health issues within an integrated analysis.

  6. SeaWiFS technical report series. Volume 11: Analysis of selected orbit propagation models for the SeaWiFS mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patt, Frederick S.; Hoisington, Charles M.; Gregg, Watson W.; Coronado, Patrick L.; Hooker, Stanford B. (Editor); Firestone, Elaine R. (Editor); Indest, A. W. (Editor)

    1993-01-01

    An analysis of orbit propagation models was performed by the Mission Operations element of the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) Project, which has overall responsibility for the instrument scheduling. The orbit propagators selected for this analysis are widely available general perturbations models. The analysis includes both absolute accuracy determination and comparisons of different versions of the models. The results show that all of the models tested meet accuracy requirements for scheduling and data acquisition purposes. For internal Project use the SGP4 propagator, developed by the North American Air Defense (NORAD) Command, has been selected. This model includes atmospheric drag effects and, therefore, provides better accuracy. For High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT) ground stations, which have less stringent accuracy requirements, the publicly available Brouwer-Lyddane models are recommended. The SeaWiFS Project will make available portable source code for a version of this model developed by the Data Capture Facility (DCF).

  7. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2015-01-01

    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

  8. Estimating the Ocean Flow Field from Combined Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Surface Height Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stammer, Detlef; Lindstrom, Eric (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This project was part of a previous grant at MIT that was moved over to the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) together with the principal investigator. The final report provided here is concerned only with the work performed at SIO since January 2000. The primary focus of this project was the study of the three-dimensional, absolute and time-evolving general circulation of the global ocean from a combined analysis of remotely sensed fields of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH). The synthesis of those two fields was performed with other relevant physical data, and appropriate dynamical ocean models with emphasis on constraining ocean general circulation models by a combination of both SST and SSH data. The central goal of the project was to improve our understanding and modeling of the relationship between the SST and its variability to internal ocean dynamics, and the overlying atmosphere, and to explore the relative roles of air-sea fluxes and internal ocean dynamics in establishing anomalies in SST on annual and longer time scales. An understanding of those problems will feed into the general discussion on how SST anomalies vary with time and the extend to which they interact with the atmosphere.

  9. Confronting reality in strategic environmental assessment in Slovenia — Costs and benefits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kontić, Branko; Dermol, Urška

    2015-01-01

    We enlarge on the viewpoint published in the Environmental Impact Assessment Review in 2012 — A viewpoint on the approval context of strategic environmental assessments. Additional alerts concerning the procedural ineffectiveness of the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) process from the cost–benefit point of view are advanced. The major contribution to the long lasting, costly SEA processes, comes from ultraistic treatment of Natura 2000. The case study deals with a plan for constructing a traffic bypass around Škofljica, a town near Ljubljana. Based on their conclusions the authors propose that the following elements of the SEA procedure should be improved and optimised: –CBA for SEA should become a regular component when measuring its effectiveness. –Concretisation of expected SEA inputs to the plan should clarify its role at the earliest stage of the process. –SEA should contribute interactively to the optimisation of alternatives; cost–benefit analysis of the SEA process could support this process. –Nature protection interest should be confronted and balanced with wider development interests as formulated in the plan and should not be applied in absolute terms (e.g. Natura 2000). - Highlights: • SEA in Slovenia is ineffective and costly • SEA serves fundamentalism of nature protection through the Natura 2000 system • SEA does not support optimization and improvement of development projects

  10. Confronting reality in strategic environmental assessment in Slovenia — Costs and benefits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kontić, Branko, E-mail: branko.kontic@ijs.si; Dermol, Urška, E-mail: urska.dermol@gmail.com

    2015-01-15

    We enlarge on the viewpoint published in the Environmental Impact Assessment Review in 2012 — A viewpoint on the approval context of strategic environmental assessments. Additional alerts concerning the procedural ineffectiveness of the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) process from the cost–benefit point of view are advanced. The major contribution to the long lasting, costly SEA processes, comes from ultraistic treatment of Natura 2000. The case study deals with a plan for constructing a traffic bypass around Škofljica, a town near Ljubljana. Based on their conclusions the authors propose that the following elements of the SEA procedure should be improved and optimised: –CBA for SEA should become a regular component when measuring its effectiveness. –Concretisation of expected SEA inputs to the plan should clarify its role at the earliest stage of the process. –SEA should contribute interactively to the optimisation of alternatives; cost–benefit analysis of the SEA process could support this process. –Nature protection interest should be confronted and balanced with wider development interests as formulated in the plan and should not be applied in absolute terms (e.g. Natura 2000). - Highlights: • SEA in Slovenia is ineffective and costly • SEA serves fundamentalism of nature protection through the Natura 2000 system • SEA does not support optimization and improvement of development projects.

  11. Risk assessment-led characterisation of the SiteChar UK north sea site for the geological storage of CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akhurst, Maxine; Hannis, Sarah D.; Quinn, Martyn F.; Long, David; Shi, Ji-Quan; Koenen, Marielle; Pluymaekers, Maarten; Delprat-Jannaud, Florence; Lecomte, Jean-Claude; Bossie-Codreanu, Daniel; Nagy, Stanislaw; Klimkowski, Lukas; Gei, Davide

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment-led characterisation of a site for the geological storage of CO 2 in the UK northern North Sea was performed for the EU SiteChar research project as one of a portfolio of sites. Implementation and testing of the SiteChar project site characterisation work-flow has produced a 'dry-run' storage permit application that is compliant with regulatory requirements. A site suitable for commercial-scale storage was characterised, compatible with current and future industrial carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sources in the northern UK. Pre-characterisation of the site, based on existing information acquired during hydrocarbon exploration and production, has been achieved from publicly available data. The project concept is to store captured CO 2 at a rate of 5 Mt per year for 20 years in the Blake Oil Field and surrounding Captain Sandstone saline aquifer. This commercial-scale storage of 100 Mt CO 2 can be achieved through a storage scenario combining injection of CO 2 into the oil field and concurrent water production down-dip of the field. There would be no encroachment of supercritical phase CO 2 for more than two kilometres beyond the field boundary and no adverse influence on operating hydrocarbon fields provided there is pressure management. Components of a storage permit application for the site are presented, developed as far as possible within a research project. Characterisation and technical investigations were guided by an initial assessment of perceived risks to the prospective site and a need to provide the information required for the storage permit application. The emphasis throughout was to reduce risks and uncertainty on the subsurface containment of stored CO 2 , particularly with respect to site technical performance, monitoring and regulatory issues, and effects on other resources. The results of selected risk assessment-led site characterisation investigations and the subsequent risk reassessments are described together with their

  12. Learning through EC directive based SEA in spatial planning? Evidence from the Brunswick Region in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, Thomas B.; Kidd, Sue; Jha-Thakur, Urmila; Gazzola, Paola; Peel, Deborah

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents results of an international comparative research project, funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Academy for Sustainable Communities (ASC) on the 'learning potential of appraisal (strategic environmental assessment - SEA) in spatial planning'. In this context, aspects of 'single-loop' and 'double-loop' learning, as well as of individual, organisational and social learning are discussed for emerging post-EC Directive German practice in the planning region (Zweckverband) of Brunswick (Braunschweig), focusing on four spatial plan SEAs from various administrative levels in the region. It is found that whilst SEA is able to lead to plan SEA specific knowledge acquisition, comprehension, application and analysis ('single-loop learning'), it is currently resulting only occasionally in wider synthesis and evaluation ('double-loop learning'). Furthermore, whilst there is evidence that individual and occasionally organisational learning may be enhanced through SEA, most notably in small municipalities, social learning appears to be happening only sporadically.

  13. Assessment of ENSEMBLES regional climate models for the representation of monthly wind characteristics in the Aegean Sea (Greece): Mean and extremes analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Tolika, Konstantia; Tegoulias, Ioannis; Velikou, Kondylia; Vagenas, Christos

    2013-04-01

    The main scope of the present study is the assessment of the ability of three of the most updated regional climate models, developed under the frame of the European research project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/), to simulate the wind characteristics in the Aegean Sea in Greece. The examined models are KNMI-RACMO2, MPI-MREMO, and ICTP - RegCM3. They all have the same spatial resolution (25x25km) and for their future projections they are using the A1B SRES emission scenarios. Their simulated wind data (speed and direction) were compared with observational data from several stations over the domain of study for a time period of 25 years, from 1980 to 2004 on a monthly basis. The primer data were available every three or six hours from which we computed the mean daily wind speed and the prevailing daily wind direction. It should be mentioned, that the comparison was made for the grid point that was the closest to each station over land. Moreover, the extreme speed values were also calculated both for the observational and the simulated data, in order to assess the ability of the models in capturing the most intense wind conditions. The first results of the study showed that the prevailing winds during the winter and spring months have a north - northeastern or a south - south western direction in most parts of the Aegean sea. The models under examination seem to capture quite satisfactorily this pattern as well as the general characteristics of the winds in this area. During summer, winds in the Aegean Sea have mainly north direction and the models have quite good agreement both in simulating this direction and the wind speed. Concerning the extreme wind speed (percentiles) it was found that for the stations in the northern Aegean all the models overestimate the extreme wind indices. For the eastern parts of the Aegean the KNMI and the MPI model underestimate the extreme wind speeds while on the other hand the ICTP model overestimates them. Finally for the

  14. The Sea Stacks Project: Enhancing the Use of Regional Literature in Atlantic Canadian Schools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivian Howard

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Research over the past two decades has amply demonstrated the importance of literature to the formation of both regional and national cultural identity, particularly in the face of mass market globalization of children’s book publishing in the 21st century as well as the predominance of non-Canadian content from television, movies, books, magazines and internet media. However, Canadian children appear to have only very limited exposure to Canadian authors and illustrators. In Atlantic Canada, regional Atlantic Canadian authors and illustrators for children receive very limited critical attention, and resources for the study and teaching of Atlantic Canadian children’s literature are few. Print and digital information sources on regional children’s books, publishing, authors and illustrators are scattered and inconsistent in quality and currency. This research project directly addresses these key concerns by summarizing the findings of a survey of Atlantic Canadian teachers on their use of regional books. In response to survey findings, the paper concludes by describing the creation of the Sea Stacks Project an authoritative web-delivered information resource devoted to contemporary Atlantic Canadian literature for children and teens.

  15. Integrated management plan for the North Sea and the Skagerrak: Impact assessment for renewable energy production in the North Sea; Helhetlig forvaltningsplan for Nordsjoen og Skagerrak. Konsekvenser av fornybar energiproduksjon i Nordsjoen.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nybakke, Karen

    2011-07-01

    This is one of six sectorial assessments which will form the basis for a general management plan for the North Sea and the Skagerrak. The (environmental) impact assessment is limited to 6 areas.(Author)

  16. The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP contribution to CMIP6: investigation of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Gregory

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs. It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sea-level rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, while the weakening of the AMOC causes redistribution of heat towards lower latitudes. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable

  17. Autonomous Sea-Ice Thickness Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    the conductivity of an infinitely thick slab of sea ice. Ice thickness, Hice, is then obtained by subtracting the height of the ...Thickness Survey of Sea Ice Runway” ERDC/CRREL SR-16-4 ii Abstract We conducted an autonomous survey of sea -ice thickness using the Polar rover Yeti...efficiency relative to manual surveys routinely con- ducted to assess the safety of roads and runways constructed on the sea ice. Yeti executed the

  18. Determining the suitability of materials for disposal at sea under the London Convention 1972: A radiological assessment procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-10-01

    The Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter (London Convention 1972) prohibits the disposal at sea of radioactive wastes and other radioactive matter. However natural radionuclides are present in all materials, including natural and inert materials, which can also contain artificial radionuclides from anthropogenic sources such as fallout due to past atmospheric nuclear testing. Therefore, the Contracting Parties to the London Convention 1972 recognized the need to develop definitions and guidelines so that candidate materials (those wastes or other matter not otherwise prohibited from disposal at sea in accordance with Annex I to the Convention) containing less than de minimis levels of specific activity, can be regarded as 'non-radioactive' and may be disposed of at sea subject to the other provisions of the Convention. At the Nineteenth Consultative Meeting in 1997, Contracting Parties to the London Convention 1972 agreed to request the IAEA to develop further the concept of de minimis levels and, in particular, to 'provide guidance for making judgements on whether materials planned to be dumped could be exempted from radiological control or whether a specific assessment was needed' (LC 19/10, paragraph 6.31). This paragraph continues: 'The IAEA would then further be requested to provide guidance to national authorities responsible for conducting specific assessments.' The IAEA presented its advice on de minimis in IAEA-TECDOC-1068, entitled Application of Radiological Exclusion and Exemption Principles to Sea Disposal, to the Twenty-first Consultative Meeting of Contracting Parties to the London Convention 1972 in October 1999. The Contracting Parties accepted these principles and criteria and interpreted them further in the Guidelines for the Application of the De Minimis Concept Under the London Convention 1972 (the Guidelines). At that time, the Contracting Parties asked the IAEA to prepare additional guidance

  19. Antarctic sea ice increase consistent with intrinsic variability of the Amundsen Sea Low

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, John; Hosking, J. Scott; Marshall, Gareth J.; Phillips, Tony; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the relationship between atmospheric circulation variability and the recent trends in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) atmospheric data, ECMWF Interim reanalysis fields and passive microwave satellite data processed with the Bootstrap version 2 algorithm. Over 1979-2013 the annual mean total Antarctic SIE increased at a rate of 195 × 103 km2 dec-1 (1.6 % dec-1), p 4.0 % dec-1) has been in the Ross Sea sector. Off West Antarctica there is a high correlation between trends in SIE and trends in the near-surface winds. The Ross Sea SIE seasonal trends are positive throughout the year, but largest in spring. The stronger meridional flow over the Ross Sea has been driven by a deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL). Pre-industrial control and historical simulations from CMIP5 indicate that the observed deepening of the ASL and stronger southerly flow over the Ross Sea are within the bounds of modeled intrinsic variability. The spring trend would need to continue for another 11 years for it to fall outside the 2 standard deviation range seen in 90 % of the simulations.

  20. Towards uncertainty estimation for operational forecast products - a multi-model-ensemble approach for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golbeck, Inga; Li, Xin; Janssen, Frank

    2014-05-01

    Several independent operational ocean models provide forecasts of the ocean state (e.g. sea level, temperature, salinity and ice cover) in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea on a daily basis. These forecasts are the primary source of information for a variety of information and emergency response systems used e.g. to issue sea level warnings or carry out oil drift forecast. The forecasts are of course highly valuable as such, but often suffer from a lack of information on their uncertainty. With the aim of augmenting the existing operational ocean forecasts in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea by a measure of uncertainty a multi-model-ensemble (MME) system for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS) and water transports has been set up in the framework of the MyOcean-2 project. Members of MyOcean-2, the NOOS² and HIROMB/BOOS³ communities provide 48h-forecasts serving as inputs. Different variables are processed separately due to their different physical characteristics. Based on the so far collected daily MME products of SST and SSS, a statistical method, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to assess their spatial and temporal variability. For sea surface currents, progressive vector diagrams at specific points are consulted to estimate the performance of the circulation models especially in hydrodynamic important areas, e.g. inflow/outflow of the Baltic Sea, Norwegian trench and English Channel. For further versions of the MME system, it is planned to extend the MME to other variables like e.g. sea level, ocean currents or ice cover based on the needs of the model providers and their customers. It is also planned to include in-situ data to augment the uncertainty information and for validation purposes. Additionally, weighting methods will be implemented into the MME system to develop more complex uncertainty measures. The methodology used to create the MME will be outlined and different ensemble products will be presented. In

  1. Using and Applying Focus Groups in Climate Change Impact Assessment Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLorme, D.; Hagen, S.

    2011-12-01

    The focus group social science research method is an efficient and flexible data collection tool with broad applicability across disciplines and contexts. Through group dynamics, this interviewing approach offers strengths in gathering candid, spontaneous comments and detailed firsthand descriptions from stakeholders' perspectives. The method, which can stand alone or be integrated with other research frameworks, has much potential for helping to manage complex issues of global change. For optimal outcomes, however, careful planning and procedures are paramount. This presentation offers guidance in this regard via examples, tips, and lessons learned from a multidisciplinary NOAA-funded project: Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (EESLR-NGOM). Focus groups are a key component of the EESLR-NGOM project as they are being used to better understand coastal resource managers' operational and information behaviors and needs regarding sea level rise (SLR), erosion, and hurricane storm surge impact; to learn how to best develop and translate the project's expected scientific results into straightforward, useful, and readily-disseminated products; and to gather outreach recommendations. As part of an EESLR-NGOM project kickoff workshop, 12 coastal resource managers participated voluntarily in a focus group. A summary of findings and illustrative participant quotations will be included in the presentation. The initial focus group was productive in gaining insights into challenges and opportunities associated with a climate change project such as the EESLR-NGOM. It highlighted the importance of considering the interrelationships of natural and built environments and new avenues for resilience and sustainability. The coastal resource managers are not only end-users but also opinion leaders in their local communities who will diffuse this information widely through their networks of other potential end-users. Engaging coastal resource managers in

  2. SUPPORT OF GULF OF MEXICO HYDRATE RESEARCH CONSORTIUM: ACTIVITIES TO SUPPORT ESTABLISHMENT OF A SEA FLOOR MONITORING STATION PROJECT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paul Higley; J. Robert Woolsey; Ralph Goodman; Vernon Asper; Boris Mizaikoff; Angela Davis

    2005-09-01

    A Consortium, designed to assemble leaders in gas hydrates research, has been established at the University of Mississippi's Center for Marine Resources and Environmental Technology, CMRET. The primary objective of the group is to design and emplace a remote monitoring station on the sea floor in the northern Gulf of Mexico by the year 2005, in an area where gas hydrates are known to be present at, or just below, the sea floor. This mission necessitates assembling a station that will monitor physical and chemical parameters of the sea water and sea floor sediments on a more-or-less continuous basis over an extended period of time. Development of the station allows for the possibility of expanding its capabilities to include biological monitoring, as a means of assessing environmental health. Establishment of the Consortium has succeeded in fulfilling the critical need to coordinate activities, avoid redundancies and communicate effectively among researchers in this relatively new research arena. Complementary expertise, both scientific and technical, has been assembled to promote innovative research methods and construct necessary instrumentation. Noteworthy achievements six months into the extended life of this cooperative agreement include: (1) Progress on the vertical line array (VLA) of sensors: Analysis and repair attempts of the VLA used in the deep water deployment during October 2003 have been completed; Definition of an interface protocol for the VLA DATS to the SFO has been established; Design modifications to allow integration of the VLA to the SFO have been made; Experience gained in the deployments of the first VLA is being applied to the design of the next VLAs; One of the two planned new VLAs being modified to serve as an Oceanographic Line Array (OLA). (2) Progress on the Sea Floor Probe: The decision to replace the Sea Floor Probe technology with the borehole emplacement of a geophysical array was reversed due to the 1300m water depth at the

  3. Characterization of the Lower Cambrian sandstone aquifer in the Swedish Baltic Sea area - assessment regarding its potential suitability for storage of CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erlström, M.; Sivhed, U.

    2012-04-01

    range of 10-16% and permeabilities of 200-400 mD. Wire line logs indicate uniform physical properties of the member. The Faludden sandstone is in addition interpreted as a closed aquifer since it wedges out updip and is overlain by alum shale and several hundred metres of Ordovician-Silurian argillaceous limestone with bentonite clays acting as a significant seal. The regional distribution in combination with the satisfactory physical properties makes it an interesting candidate for CO2 storage. Investigations of the hydraulic properties of the aquifer as well as properties of the seal, in combination with numeric modelling have to be performed as to achieve a reliable assessment of the storage capacity. Research projects regarding this are now being launched by the Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala University, Lund University and the industry. Existing data regarding the Lower Cambrian sandstone in the Baltic Sea will also be included in the Nordic CCS GIS Atlas and data base within the recently launched Nordiccs-project.

  4. Climate Change in Environmental Impact Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2012-01-01

    Many renewable energy projects are subject to EIA. However a question that surfaces is what use an impact assessment is when the project is ‘good for the environment’? One of the current topics receiving much attention in impact assessment is climate change and how this factor is integrated...... in impact assessments. This warrants the question: How do we assess the climate change related impacts of a project that inherently has a positive effect on climate? This paper is based on a document study of EIA reports from Denmark. The results show that climate change is included in most of the EIA...... reports reviewed, and that only climate change mitigation is in focus while adaptation is absent. Also the results point to focus on positive impacts, while the indirect negative impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  5. Geo-Seas - building a unified e-infrastructure for marine geoscientific data management in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaves, H.; Schaap, D.

    2012-04-01

    A significant barrier to marine geoscientific research in Europe is the lack of standardised marine geological and geophysical data and data products which could potentially facilitate multidisciplinary marine research extending across national and international boundaries. Although there are large volumes of geological and geophysical data available for the marine environment it is currently very difficult to use these datasets in an integrated way due to different nomenclatures, formats, scales and coordinate systems being used within different organisations as well as between countries. This makes the direct use of primary data very difficult and also hampers use of the data to produce integrated multidisciplinary data products and services. The Geo-Seas project, an EU Framework 7 funded initiative, is developing a unified e-infrastructure to facilitate the sharing of marine geoscientific data within Europe. This e-infrastructure is providing on-line access to both discovery metadata and the associated federated data sets from 26 European data centres via a dedicated portal. The implementation of the Geo-Seas portal is allowing a range of end users to locate, assess and access standardised geoscientific data from multiple sources which is interoperable with other marine data types. Geo-Seas is building on the work already done by the existing SeaDataNet project which currently provides a data management e-infrastructure for oceanographic data which allows users to locate and access federated oceanographic data sets. By adopting and adapting the SeaDataNet methodologies and technologies the Geo-Seas project has not only avoid unnecessary duplication of effort by reusing existing and proven technologies but also contributed to the development of a multidisciplinary approach to ocean science across Europe through the creation of a joint infrastructure for both marine geoscientific and oceanographic data. This approach is also leading to the development of

  6. Two centuries of observed atmospheric variability and change over the North Sea region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stendel, Martin; van den Besselaar, Else; Hannachi, Abdel; Kent, Elizabeth; Lefebvre, Christiana; Rosenhagen, Gudrun; Schenk, Frederik; van der Schrier, Gerard; Woollings, Tim

    2016-04-01

    In the upcoming North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), we present a synthesis of current knowledge about past, present and possible future climate change in the North Sea region. A climate change assessment from published scientific work has been conducted as a kind of regional IPCC report, and a book has been produced that will be published by Springer in 2016. In the framework of the NOSCCA project, we examine past and present studies of variability and changes in atmospheric variables within the North Sea region over the instrumental period, roughly the past 200 years, based on observations and reanalyses. The variables addressed in this presentation are large-scale circulation, pressure and wind, surface air temperature, precipitation and radiative properties (clouds, solar radiation, and sunshine duration). While air temperature over land, not unexpectedly, has increased everywhere in the North Sea region, with strongest trends in spring and in the north of the region, a precipitation increase has been observed in the north and a decrease in the south of the region. This pattern goes along with a north-eastward shift of storm tracks and is in agreement with climate model projections under enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations. For other variables, it is not obvious which part of the observed changes may be due to anthropogenic activities and which is internally forced. It remains also unclear to what extent atmospheric circulation over the North Sea region is influenced by distant factors, in particular Arctic sea-ice decline in recent decades. There are indications of an increase in the number of deep cyclones (but not in the total number of cyclones), while storminess since the late 19th century shows no robust trends. The persistence of circulation types appears to have increased over the last century, and consequently, there is an indication for 'more extreme' extreme events. However, changes in extreme weather events are difficult to assess

  7. Summertime land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate—Part I: Past changes and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Youichi; Watanabe, Masahiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Shiogama, Hideo

    2014-11-01

    Land-sea surface air temperature (SAT) contrast, an index of tropospheric thermodynamic structure and dynamical circulation, has shown a significant increase in recent decades over East Asia during the boreal summer. In Part I of this two-part paper, observational data and the results of transient warming experiments conducted using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed to examine changes in land-sea thermal contrast and the associated atmospheric circulation over East Asia from the past to the future. The interannual variability of the land-sea SAT contrast over the Far East for 1950-2012 was found to be tightly coupled with a characteristic tripolar pattern of tropospheric circulation over East Asia, which manifests as anticyclonic anomalies over the Okhotsk Sea and around the Philippines, and a cyclonic anomaly over Japan during a positive phase, and vice versa. In response to CO2 increase, the cold northeasterly winds off the east coast of northern Japan and the East Asian rainband were strengthened with the circulation pattern well projected on the observed interannual variability. These results are commonly found in GCMs regardless of future forcing scenarios, indicating the robustness of the East Asian climate response to global warming. The physical mechanisms responsible for the increase of the land-sea contrast are examined in Part II.

  8. Sustainable development - billions of watts under the seas - Marine current turbines play simple - Technological waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lucas, Th.

    2011-01-01

    The author evokes the opportunities of power generation by the development of sea current or tidal stream turbines. Some developments are already tested by Norwegian, French, Danish, British and American companies. Some specific turbines are briefly presented. In order to reduce the cost of the electricity production from sea currents, manufacturers are using simple and robust technologies, and exploit the experience gained on wind turbines. Some designs and prototypes are evoked for the production of electricity by sea waves (Pelamis and Oyster projects). Principles, strengths and production projects are briefly indicated. The challenge of maintenance in sea environment is outlined for these projects

  9. An assessment of simplified methods to determine damage from ship-to-ship collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parks, M.B.; Ammerman, D.J.

    1996-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is studying the safety of shipping, radioactive materials (RAM) by sea, the SeaRAM project (McConnell, et al. 1995), which is sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE). The project is concerned with the potential effects of ship collisions and fires on onboard RAM packages. Existing methodologies are being assessed to determine their adequacy to predict the effect of ship collisions and fires on RAM packages and to estimate whether or not a given accident might lead to a release of radioactivity. The eventual goal is to develop a set of validated methods, which have been checked by comparison with test data and/or detailed finite element analyses, for predicting the consequences of ship collisions and fires. These methods could then be used to provide input for overall risk assessments of RAM sea transport. The emphasis of this paper is on methods for predicting- effects of ship collisions

  10. Accidents on vessels transporting liquid gases and responder's concerns : the Galerne Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cabioc'h, F.; De Castelet, D.; Penelon, T.; Pagnon, S.; Peuch, A.; Bonnardot, F.; Duhart, J.; Drevet, D.; Estiez, C.; Dernat, M.; Hermand, J.C.

    2009-01-01

    In 2006, the French Ministry of Research financed the Galerne project to provide responders at sea with relevant information on the hazards posed by liquid gas chemicals on vessels disabled at sea. Thirty-one chemicals are transported as liquids in order to facilitate handling and lower transport costs. Temperature and pressure parameters are manipulated in order to generate the liquefaction of the gases. Members of the Galerne project are producers and handlers of liquefied gases and are experts in atmospheric modelling, ship structure, risk assessment, hazards assessment and operations. Several simulations and experiments were performed in an effort to produce operational information for responders and headquarters. For practical and financial reasons, it was not possible to consider all 31 chemicals described in the IGC code. Only 4 liquid gases were chosen for the Galerne project, notably methane liquefied natural gas (LNG); propane LNG; ammonia; and vinyl chloride monomer (VCM). They were chosen on the basis of their transport characteristics and behaviour. This paper outlined the physical characteristics of the transported products verses their volume in standard conditions; the type of ship dedicated to transporting gases in liquid forms; and various response phases. It also included a brief review of several ship incidents and accidents. It was concluded that as far as the LNG carriers are concerns, a few accidents at sea have occurred in more than 28 years, but no major accidents involving the cargo have been reported. Handling LNG at terminals can lead to serious accidents. Accidents have occurred at sea, but without any accidental spillage of cargo. It was concluded that response teams on-board disabled liquefied gas carriers need to know the main characteristics of the cargo and the potential hazards. 3 tabs., 6 figs

  11. The Ross Sea Dipole – temperature, snow accumulation and sea ice variability in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica, over the past 2700 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. N. Bertler

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available High-resolution, well-dated climate archives provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamic interactions of climate patterns relevant for future projections. Here, we present data from a new, annually dated ice core record from the eastern Ross Sea, named the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE ice core. Comparison of this record with climate reanalysis data for the 1979–2012 interval shows that RICE reliably captures temperature and snow precipitation variability in the region. Trends over the past 2700 years in RICE are shown to be distinct from those in West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea captured by other ice cores. For most of this interval, the eastern Ross Sea was warming (or showing isotopic enrichment for other reasons, with increased snow accumulation and perhaps decreased sea ice concentration. However, West Antarctica cooled and the western Ross Sea showed no significant isotope temperature trend. This pattern here is referred to as the Ross Sea Dipole. Notably, during the Little Ice Age, West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea experienced colder than average temperatures, while the eastern Ross Sea underwent a period of warming or increased isotopic enrichment. From the 17th century onwards, this dipole relationship changed. All three regions show current warming, with snow accumulation declining in West Antarctica and the eastern Ross Sea but increasing in the western Ross Sea. We interpret this pattern as reflecting an increase in sea ice in the eastern Ross Sea with perhaps the establishment of a modern Roosevelt Island polynya as a local moisture source for RICE.

  12. A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolff, Claudia; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Muis, Sanne; Lincke, Daniel; Satta, Alessio; Lionello, Piero; Jimenez, Jose A.; Conte, Dario; Hinkel, Jochen

    2018-01-01

    We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial

  13. Assessing, understanding, and conveying the state of the Arctic sea ice cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perovich, D. K.; Richter-Menge, J. A.; Rigor, I.; Parkinson, C. L.; Weatherly, J. W.; Nghiem, S. V.; Proshutinsky, A.; Overland, J. E.

    2003-12-01

    Recent studies indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is undergoing significant climate-induced changes, affecting both its extent and thickness. Satellite-derived estimates of Arctic sea ice extent suggest a reduction of about 3% per decade since 1978. Ice thickness data from submarines suggest a net thinning of the sea ice cover since 1958. Changes (including oscillatory changes) in atmospheric circulation and the thermohaline properties of the upper ocean have also been observed. These changes impact not only the Arctic, but the global climate system and are likely accelerated by such processes as the ice-albedo feedback. It is important to continue and expand long-term observations of these changes to (a) improve the fundamental understanding of the role of the sea ice cover in the global climate system and (b) use the changes in the sea ice cover as an early indicator of climate change. This is a formidable task that spans a range of temporal and spatial scales. Fortunately, there are numerous tools that can be brought to bear on this task, including satellite remote sensing, autonomous buoys, ocean moorings, field campaigns and numerical models. We suggest the integrated and coordinated use of these tools during the International Polar Year to monitor the state of the Arctic sea ice cover and investigate its governing processes. For example, satellite remote sensing provides the large-scale snapshots of such basic parameters as ice distribution, melt zone, and cloud fraction at intervals of half a day to a week. Buoys and moorings can contribute high temporal resolution and can measure parameters currently unavailable from space including ice thickness, internal ice temperature, and ocean temperature and salinity. Field campaigns can be used to explore, in detail, the processes that govern the ice cover. Numerical models can be used to assess the character of the changes in the ice cover and predict their impacts on the rest of the climate system. This work

  14. A viewpoint on the approval context of strategic environmental assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kontić, Branko; Kontić, Davor

    2012-01-01

    A reflection on the last report from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions on the application and effectiveness of the Directive on Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is provided. It covers the inadequacies of the approval/permitting context of SEA, which appears to be increasingly applied by a significant number of Member States in recent years. A viewpoint is provided on the main deficiencies of such praxis. As a practical defence of the planning context of SEA, the authors propose that the EC should consider a clear recommendation to Member States to cease performing SEA in the approval/permitting context until proper amendments to the SEA Directive are made and implemented. - Highlights: ► Administrative and permitting context of SEA, has ousted the primary environmental impact assessment goal. ► The approval context moves from the environmental protection to the area of political power and economy. ► SEA and EIA are misused. ► Environmental evaluations should be used for improving the projects/plans/programmes and not for permitting them.

  15. QUANTIFYING REGIONAL SEA LEVEL RISE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diandong Ren

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study projects the sea level contribution from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS through to 2100, using a recently developed ice dynamics model forced by atmospheric parameters derived from three different climate models (CGCMs. The geographical pattern of the near-surface ice warming imposes a divergent flow field favoring mass loss through enhanced ice flow. The calculated average mass loss rate during the latter half of the 21st century is ~0.64±0.06 mm/year eustatic sea level rise, which is significantly larger than the IPCC AR4 estimate from surface mass balance. The difference is due largely to the positive feedbacks from reduced ice viscosity and the basal sliding mechanism present in the ice dynamics model. This inter-model, inter-scenario spread adds approximately a 20% uncertainty to the IPCC ice model estimates. The sea level rise is geographically non-uniform and reaches 1.69±0.24 mm/year by 2100 for the northeast coastal region of the United States, amplified by the expected weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC. In contrast to previous estimates, which neglected the GrIS fresh water input, both sides of the North Atlantic Gyre are projected to experience sea level rises. The impacts on a selection of major cities on both sides of the Atlantic and in the Pacific and southern oceans also are assessed. The other ocean basins are found to be less affected than the Atlantic Ocean.

  16. Promoting Health Literacy through the Health Education Assessment Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marx, Eva; Hudson, Nancy; Deal, Tami B.; Pateman, Beth; Middleton, Kathleen

    2007-01-01

    Background: The Council of Chief State School Officers' State Collaborative on Assessment and Student Standards Health Education Assessment Project (SCASS-HEAP) allows states to pool financial and human resources to develop effective ready-to-use health education assessment resources through a collaborative process. The purpose of this article is…

  17. SUPPORT OF GULF OF MEXICO HYDRATE RESEARCH CONSORTIUM: ACTIVITIES TO SUPPORT ESTABLISHMENT OF A SEA FLOOR MONITORING STATION PROJECT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paul Higley; J. Robert Woolsey; Ralph Goodman; Vernon Asper; Boris Mizaikoff; Angela Davis

    2005-08-01

    A Consortium, designed to assemble leaders in gas hydrates research, has been established at the University of Mississippi's Center for Marine Resources and Environmental Technology, CMRET. The primary objective of the group is to design and emplace a remote monitoring station on the sea floor in the northern Gulf of Mexico by the year 2005, in an area where gas hydrates are known to be present at, or just below, the sea floor. This mission necessitates assembling a station that will monitor physical and chemical parameters of the sea water and sea floor sediments on a more-or-less continuous basis over an extended period of time. Development of the station allows for the possibility of expanding its capabilities to include biological monitoring, as a means of assessing environmental health. Establishment of the Consortium has succeeded in fulfilling the critical need to coordinate activities, avoid redundancies and communicate effectively among researchers in this relatively new research arena. Complementary expertise, both scientific and technical, has been assembled to innovate research methods and construct necessary instrumentation. A year into the life of this cooperative agreement, we note the following achievements: (1) Progress on the vertical line array (VLA) of sensors: (A) Software and hardware upgrades to the data logger for the prototype vertical line array, including enhanced programmable gains, increased sampling rates, improved surface communications, (B) Cabling upgrade to allow installation of positioning sensors, (C) Adaptation of SDI's Angulate program to use acoustic slant ranges and DGPS data to compute and map the bottom location of the vertical array, (D) Progress in T''0'' delay and timing issues for improved control in data recording, (E) Successful deployment and recovery of the VLA twice during an October, 2003 cruise, once in 830m water, once in 1305m water, (F) Data collection and recovery from the DATS

  18. Comprehensive large-scale investigation and assessment of trace metal in the coastal sediments of Bohai Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hongjun; Gao, Xuelu; Gu, Yanbin; Wang, Ruirui; Xie, Pengfei; Liang, Miao; Ming, Hongxia; Su, Jie

    2018-04-01

    The Bohai Sea is characterized as a semi-closed sea with limited water exchange ability, which has been regarded as one of the most contaminated regions in China and has attracted public attention over the past decades. In recent years, the rapid industrialization and urbanization around the coastal region has resulted in a severe pollution pressure in the Bohai Sea. Although efforts from official government and scientific experts have been made to protect and restore the marine ecosystem, satisfactory achievements were not gained. Moreover, partial coastal areas in the Bohai Sea seemingly remain heavily polluted. In this study, we focused on five coastal regions around the Bohai Sea to study the spatial distribution pattern of trace elements in the sediments and their ecological risk. A total of 108 sediment samples were analyzed to determine the contamination degree of trace elements (Cu, Cd, As, Pb, Zn, Cr, and Hg). Contamination factor (CF), pollution load index (PLI), geoaccumulation index (I geo ), and potential ecological risk index (PERI) were utilized to assess the pollution extent of these metals. Spatial distribution patterns revealed that the sedimentary environments of coastal Bohai were in good condition, except Jinzhou Bay, according to the Marine Sediment Quality of China. The concentrations of Hg and Cd were considerably higher than the average upper crust value and presented high potential ecological risk and considerable potential ecological risk, respectively. The overall environment quality of the coastal Bohai Sea does not seem to pose an extremely serious threat in terms of metal pollution. Thus, the government should continue implementing pollution control programs in the Bohai Sea. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reusch, Thorsten B. H.; Dierking, Jan; Andersson, Helen C.

    2018-01-01

    Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are diff......Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use...... are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history...... of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess...

  20. Consideration of climate change on environmental impact assessment in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro, E-mail: aenriquez@draba.org [Escuela de Doctorado, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental, Cañada Nueva, 29, 28200 San Lorenzo de El Escorial (Spain); Martín-Aranda, Rosa M., E-mail: rmartin@ccia.uned.es [Departamento de Química Inorgánica y Química Técnica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040, Madrid (Spain); Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, E-mail: sierra@dfmf.uned.es [Departamento de Física Matemática y de Fluidos, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040, Madrid (Spain)

    2016-02-15

    Most of the projects subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA) are closely related to climate change, as they contribute to or are affected by it. The growing certainty about climate change and its impacts makes its consideration an essential part of the EIA process, as well as in strategic environmental assessment (SEA). This paper examines how climate change (CC) has been taken into account in EIA in Spain through the analysis of 1713 environmental records of decision (RODs) of projects submitted for EIA. In 2013 Spain approved one of the most advanced laws in terms of CC consideration in environmental assessment, although it had not yet accumulated extensive practice on the issue. This contrasts with the situation of countries like Canada or the USA, which have a significant body of experience without specific legal requirements. Only 14% of the RODs analysed included references to CC, and in more than half of the cases it was a mere citation. Thermal power plants, which are subject to specific GHG regulations, show the highest consideration, while transport infrastructures, which are important contributors to CC, show a very low consideration. Almost all the references are related to their contribution to CC, while consideration of the effects of CC is minimal. The increasingly common incorporation of CC into SEA, should not imply its exclusion from EIA, because both processes have different aims and uses. Including the obligation to consider CC in the EIA regulations is highly desirable, but probably not enough without other measures, such as practical guidance, training and motivational programmes for practitioners and evaluators. But even these actions cannot ensure effective and adequate assessments of CC. Probably more resources should be spent on creating greater awareness in all the agents involved in EIA. - Highlights: • We analyse how the climate change is considered in EIA in Spain. • Few projects seriously assess climate change.

  1. Consideration of climate change on environmental impact assessment in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M.; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén

    2016-01-01

    Most of the projects subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA) are closely related to climate change, as they contribute to or are affected by it. The growing certainty about climate change and its impacts makes its consideration an essential part of the EIA process, as well as in strategic environmental assessment (SEA). This paper examines how climate change (CC) has been taken into account in EIA in Spain through the analysis of 1713 environmental records of decision (RODs) of projects submitted for EIA. In 2013 Spain approved one of the most advanced laws in terms of CC consideration in environmental assessment, although it had not yet accumulated extensive practice on the issue. This contrasts with the situation of countries like Canada or the USA, which have a significant body of experience without specific legal requirements. Only 14% of the RODs analysed included references to CC, and in more than half of the cases it was a mere citation. Thermal power plants, which are subject to specific GHG regulations, show the highest consideration, while transport infrastructures, which are important contributors to CC, show a very low consideration. Almost all the references are related to their contribution to CC, while consideration of the effects of CC is minimal. The increasingly common incorporation of CC into SEA, should not imply its exclusion from EIA, because both processes have different aims and uses. Including the obligation to consider CC in the EIA regulations is highly desirable, but probably not enough without other measures, such as practical guidance, training and motivational programmes for practitioners and evaluators. But even these actions cannot ensure effective and adequate assessments of CC. Probably more resources should be spent on creating greater awareness in all the agents involved in EIA. - Highlights: • We analyse how the climate change is considered in EIA in Spain. • Few projects seriously assess climate change.

  2. Wuskwatim generation project : Canadian Environmental Assessment Act comprehensive study report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-10-01

    This study report described the plan by Manitoba Hydro and the Nisichawayasihk Cree Nation (NCN) to construct a new 200- megawatt (MW) generating station at Taskinigup Falls on the Burntwood River, near the outlet of Wuskwatim Lake. This hydroelectric power project will allow Manitoba Hydro to meet its projected energy needs within the next two decades as identified in its 2002/03 Power Resource Plan. It will also allow Manitoba Hydro and NCN to obtain additional export revenues and profits by advancing the in-service date of the Project from 2020 to 2009. A formal environmental assessment is required under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA) because Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) has determined that the Project would cause fish habitat losses requiring an authorization under the Fisheries Act. Many of the structures to be built in navigable waters would also require formal approval under the Navigable Waters Protection Act (NWPA), which has prompted this application of the CEAA. This environmental assessment report has been prepared by DFO in consultation with Transport Canada and other federal authorities concerned. It provides a summary of the Wuskwatim Generation Project and the environment in which it will be built and operated. In addition, the results of public consultations are discussed. It presents an assessment of the Project's influence on fish and fish habitat, birds, species at risk, human health (local air quality, quality of drinking water and consumption of fishery products), navigation, use of renewable resources, and current use of lands and resources for traditional purposes by Aboriginal persons (hunting, trapping, gathering, subsistence fishing and heritage sites). It was concluded that the proposed Project, as defined by the scope of the study, is not likely to cause significant adverse environmental effects. 45 refs., 5 tabs., 13 figs., 3 appendices

  3. Assessment of biological effects of environmental pollution along the NW Mediterranean Sea using red mullets as sentinel organisms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zorita, Izaskun; Ortiz-Zarragoitia, Maren; Apraiz, Itxaso; Cancio, Ibon; Orbea, Amaia; Soto, Manu; Marigomez, Ionan [Biologia Zelularra eta Histologia Laborategia, Zoologia eta Biologia Zelularra Saila, Zientzia eta Teknologia Fakultatea, Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea/Universidad del Pais Vasco, 644 P.K., E-48080 Bilbao, Basque Country (Spain); Cajaraville, Miren P. [Biologia Zelularra eta Histologia Laborategia, Zoologia eta Biologia Zelularra Saila, Zientzia eta Teknologia Fakultatea, Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea/Universidad del Pais Vasco, 644 P.K., E-48080 Bilbao, Basque Country (Spain)], E-mail: mirenp.cajaraville@ehu.es

    2008-05-15

    A biomonitoring program was carried out in spring and autumn in three pollution hot-spots and sensitive areas of the NW Mediterranean Sea using red mullets (Mullus barbatus) as sentinel organisms and a battery of biomarkers together with gonad histology. In fish from anthropogenic impacted areas (Fos-sur-mer, Cortiou, Arenzano, Delta of Ebro) lysosomal membrane destabilization occurred indicating disturbed health. There were no significant differences in metallothionein (MT) levels among stations. Peroxisomal acyl-CoA oxidase (AOX) activity was highest in fish from Cortiou. Both MT levels and AOX activities were significantly correlated with gamete development. Prevalence of melanomacrophage centers were high in Cortiou in all samplings and in Fos-sur-mer in September samplings. In conclusion, the application of a battery of biomarkers in red mullets provided relevant data for the assessment of environmental pollution in the NW Mediterranean Sea but also showed the difficulties of using native fish as sentinels. For future studies caging strategies are recommended. - Application of biomarkers in red mullets is promising to assess environmental pollution in the NW Mediterranean Sea.

  4. Assessment of biological effects of environmental pollution along the NW Mediterranean Sea using red mullets as sentinel organisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zorita, Izaskun; Ortiz-Zarragoitia, Maren; Apraiz, Itxaso; Cancio, Ibon; Orbea, Amaia; Soto, Manu; Marigomez, Ionan; Cajaraville, Miren P.

    2008-01-01

    A biomonitoring program was carried out in spring and autumn in three pollution hot-spots and sensitive areas of the NW Mediterranean Sea using red mullets (Mullus barbatus) as sentinel organisms and a battery of biomarkers together with gonad histology. In fish from anthropogenic impacted areas (Fos-sur-mer, Cortiou, Arenzano, Delta of Ebro) lysosomal membrane destabilization occurred indicating disturbed health. There were no significant differences in metallothionein (MT) levels among stations. Peroxisomal acyl-CoA oxidase (AOX) activity was highest in fish from Cortiou. Both MT levels and AOX activities were significantly correlated with gamete development. Prevalence of melanomacrophage centers were high in Cortiou in all samplings and in Fos-sur-mer in September samplings. In conclusion, the application of a battery of biomarkers in red mullets provided relevant data for the assessment of environmental pollution in the NW Mediterranean Sea but also showed the difficulties of using native fish as sentinels. For future studies caging strategies are recommended. - Application of biomarkers in red mullets is promising to assess environmental pollution in the NW Mediterranean Sea

  5. Cleaning up the sea bed in the North Sea. 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The yearly raid was executed in an efficient way and without excess technical equipment interruptions. The vessel ''Lance'' owned by the Norwegian Sea Mapping Authorities which was used for the sonar mapping of the sea bed, was equipped with a Klein 531T side seeking sonar, a Simrad echo sounder of the type EM100 (multiray) and differential GPS navigation system. The executive committee has earlier expressed desire for a strengthening of the co-operation with the Norwegian Sea Mapping Authorities. The use of the vessel was in accordance with this wish. Stolt Comex Seaway A/S used the vessel M/S ''Seaway Commander'' and the underwater vessel ''Solo'' for the cleaning up project. The systems worked satisfactory during the entire operation. The cleaning operation was in 1994 carried out in 2 sections. The Petroleum Directorate agreed to letting the M/S ''Seaway Commander'' complete the project for Norsk Hydro at the Troll field in order to avoid delays in the Troll Oil project. In both periods there were good weather conditions. There was no extensive discontinuations due to the weather. During the two periods of 13,5 days 259 out of 370 positions were investigated visually through the systems. This is in average about 20 inspected positions a day. The reason for the high average is that the sailing distances are short between the positions and the findings corresponded to stated positions and sonar interpretations. Also this year there was installed a side seeking sonar in the underwater vessel which resulted in reduced investigation time at each aim. It was possible with this type of sonar to identify the goal quicker and to seek during transit between goals at moderate distances. Few articles with certainty contributed by the petroleum activities were retrieved

  6. Malingering dissociative identity disorder: objective and projective assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labott, Susan M; Wallach, Heather R

    2002-04-01

    Verification of dissociative identity disorder presents challenges given the complex nature of the illness. This study addressed the concern that this disorder can be successfully malingered on objective and projective psychological tests. 50 undergraduate women were assigned to a Malingering or a Control condition, then completed the Rorschach Inkblot Test and the Dissociative Experiences Scale II. The Malingering group were asked to simulate dissociative identity disorder; controls received instructions to answer all materials honestly. Analysis indicated that malingerers were significantly more likely to endorse dissociative experiences on the Dissociative Experiences Scale II in the range common to patients with diagnosed dissociative identity disorder. However, on the Rorschach there were no significant differences between the two groups. Results suggest that the assessment of dissociative identity disorder requires a multifaceted approach with both objective and projective assessment tools. Research is needed to assess these issues in clinical populations.

  7. Assessments of the lesser sandeel ( Ammodytes marinus ) in the North Sea based on revised stock divisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, S.A.; Lewy, Peter; Wright, P.

    1999-01-01

    effort, catch per unit effort, yield, fishing and natural mortality. A better understanding of sandeel growth is important for stock and catch predictions because previous studies indicate that the variability of mean weight-at-age is one of the most important factors influencing the precision......Recent investigations suggest that the current treatment of North Sea sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) as a single unit stock may have little biological basis. In order to study regional effects of the fishery on North Sea lesser sandeel it may therefore be important to assess stock dynamics...... of predictions. The Danish weight-at-age data of sandeel are re- analysed to estimate the mean weight-at-age in the catch and the stock and the precision of the estimates. The reliability of the sandeel assessments is discussed in relation to the data sources available and to the knowledge of sandeel biology...

  8. Polar bears and sea ice habitat change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Butterworth, Andy

    2017-01-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) is an obligate apex predator of Arctic sea ice and as such can be affected by climate warming-induced changes in the extent and composition of pack ice and its impacts on their seal prey. Sea ice declines have negatively impacted some polar bear subpopulations through reduced energy input because of loss of hunting habitats, higher energy costs due to greater ice drift, ice fracturing and open water, and ultimately greater challenges to recruit young. Projections made from the output of global climate models suggest that polar bears in peripheral Arctic and sub-Arctic seas will be reduced in numbers or become extirpated by the end of the twenty-first century if the rate of climate warming continues on its present trajectory. The same projections also suggest that polar bears may persist in the high-latitude Arctic where heavy multiyear sea ice that has been typical in that region is being replaced by thinner annual ice. Underlying physical and biological oceanography provides clues as to why polar bear in some regions are negatively impacted, while bears in other regions have shown no apparent changes. However, continued declines in sea ice will eventually challenge the survival of polar bears and efforts to conserve them in all regions of the Arctic.

  9. Putting SEA in context: A discourse perspective on how SEA contributes to decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Runhaar, Hens

    2009-01-01

    Over the last couple of years there is an ongoing debate in the environmental assessment literature about the contribution of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) to public decision-making and how this can be understood and enhanced by better incorporating insights from policy analysis, planning theory and political sciences. By explicitly framing SEA as an element in a process where stakeholders with diverging interests struggle, acceptability of SEA processes and results by stakeholders has become an important element in SEA evaluation. In addition, the importance of other context variables, such as the institutional organisation, and the need for SEA to adapt to this context, is stressed. Thus far, publications in this area have been dealing with the operationalisation of SEA's 'contribution', typologies of roles that SEA can or should play in different policy settings and on factors that stimulate or impede SEA to play these roles. In this paper an alternative approach is suggested that starts from the deliberative processes around a particular policy issue or decision supported by SEA. Of particular interest are 'discourses': the frames through which groups of actors give meaning to aspects of the policy issues and decisions that are supported by SEA. Discourses do not only reflect conflicts of interests and power play, but also the ways in which actors perceive and understand aspects of the world. Decision-making is conceptualised as a 'system of competing discourse coalitions and their struggles to 'control shared meanings' and to gain acceptance of their framing of a policy issue' [Durning D. A review of Fischer and Forrester (1993) The argumentative turn in policy analysis and planning. Policy Sci 1995;28(1):102-8]. SEA is one of the events in this process that may impact upon dominant discourses. Discourse analysis allows for an understanding of arguments that are considered legitimate for (not) incorporating particular elements of SEA. In addition it

  10. SKI SITE-94. Deep Repository Performance Assessment Project. Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-02-01

    The function of SITE-94 is to provide the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) with the capacity and supporting knowledge needed for reviewing the Swedish nuclear industry's R and D programs and for reviewing license applications, as stipulated in Swedish legislation. The report is structured as a Performance Assessment exercise needed for input to decisions regarding repository safety, but the SITE-94 is neither a safety assessment nor a model for future assessments to be undertaken by the prospective licensee. The specific project objectives of SITE-94 comprise site evaluation, performance assessment methodology, canister integrity and radionuclide release and transport calculations. The main report (SKI-R--96-36) gives a detailed description of the many inter-related studies undertaken as part of the research project, while the present report presents a condensed summary of the main report. 46 refs

  11. Assessment of the Wave Energy in the Black Sea Based on a 15-Year Hindcast with Data Assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliana Rusu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The principal target of the present work is to assess the wave energy potential in the Black Sea, identifying also some relevant energetic features and possible patterns. A wave prediction system based on the Simulating Waves Nearshore model (SWAN has been implemented and intensively tested in the entire sea basin. Moreover, considering an optimal interpolation technique, an assimilation scheme of the satellite data has been developed, leading to a visible improvement of the wave model predictions in terms of significant wave heights and, consequently, also in terms of wave power. Using this wave prediction system with data assimilation, simulations have been performed for a 15-year period (1999–2013. Considering the results of this 15-year wave hindcast, an analysis of the wave energy conditions in the basin of the Black Sea has been carried out. This provided a more comprehensive picture concerning the wave energy patterns in the coastal environment of the Black Sea focused on the average wave conditions that might be expected in this sea. Following the results presented, it can be concluded that the wave energy extraction in the Black Sea can become an issue of interest, especially from the perspective of the hybrid solutions.

  12. Assessment of ground transportation stress in juvenile Kemp’s ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Kathleen E.; Innis, Charles J.; Kennedy, Adam E.; McNally, Kerry L.; Davis, Deborah G.; Burgess, Elizabeth A.; Merigo, Constance

    2016-01-01

    Sea turtle rehabilitation centres frequently transport sea turtles for long distances to move animals between centres or to release them at beaches, yet there is little information on the possible effects of transportation-related stress (‘transport stress’) on sea turtles. To assess whether transport stress is a clinically relevant concern for endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii), we obtained pre-transport and post-transport plasma samples from 26 juvenile Kemp’s ridley sea turtles that were transported for 13 h (n = 15 turtles) or 26 h (n = 11 turtles) by truck for release at beaches. To control for effects of handling, food restriction and time of day, the same turtles were also studied on ‘control days’ 2 weeks prior to transport, i.e. with two samples taken to mimic pre-transport and post-transport timing, but without transportation. Blood samples were analysed for nine clinical health measures (pH, pCO2, pO2, HCO3, sodium, potassium, ionized calcium, lactate and haematocrit) and four ‘stress-associated’ parameters (corticosterone, glucose, white blood cell count and heterophil-to-lymphocyte ratio). Vital signs (heart rate, respiratory rate and cloacal temperature) were also monitored. Corticosterone and glucose showed pronounced elevations due specifically to transportation; for corticosterone, this elevation was significant only for the longer transport duration, whereas glucose increased significantly after both transport durations. However, clinical health measures and vital signs showed minimal or no changes in response to any sampling event (with or without transport), and all turtles appeared to be in good clinical health after both transport durations. Thus, transportation elicits a mild, but detectable, adrenal stress response that is more pronounced during longer durations of transport; nonetheless, Kemp’s ridley sea turtles can tolerate ground transportation of up to 26 h in good health. These

  13. Environmental impact assessment for uranium mine, mill and in situ leach projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-11-01

    Environmental impact assessments and/or statements are an inherent part of any uranium mining project and are a prerequisite for the future opening of an exploitation and its final closure and decommissioning. Since they contain all information related to the physical, biological, chemical and economic condition of the areas where industrial projects are proposed or planned, they present invaluable guidance for the planning and implementation of environmental mitigation as well as environmental restoration after the mine is closed. They further yield relevant data on the socio-economic impacts of a project. The present report provides guidance on the environmental impact assessment of uranium mining and milling projects, including in situ leach projects which will be useful for companies in the process of planning uranium developments as well as for the regional or national authorities who will assess such developments. Additional information and advice is given through environmental case histories from five different countries. Those case histories are not meant to be prescriptions for conducting assessments nor even firm recommendations, but should serve as examples for the type and extent of work involved in assessments. A model assessment and licensing process is recommended based on the experience of the five countries. 1 fig., 5 tabs.

  14. Environmental impact assessment for uranium mine, mill and in situ leach projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-11-01

    Environmental impact assessments and/or statements are an inherent part of any uranium mining project and are a prerequisite for the future opening of an exploitation and its final closure and decommissioning. Since they contain all information related to the physical, biological, chemical and economic condition of the areas where industrial projects are proposed or planned, they present invaluable guidance for the planning and implementation of environmental mitigation as well as environmental restoration after the mine is closed. They further yield relevant data on the socio-economic impacts of a project. The present report provides guidance on the environmental impact assessment of uranium mining and milling projects, including in situ leach projects which will be useful for companies in the process of planning uranium developments as well as for the regional or national authorities who will assess such developments. Additional information and advice is given through environmental case histories from five different countries. Those case histories are not meant to be prescriptions for conducting assessments nor even firm recommendations, but should serve as examples for the type and extent of work involved in assessments. A model assessment and licensing process is recommended based on the experience of the five countries

  15. Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Strœve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2009-01-01

    Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. PMID:19171908

  16. Potential vulnerability implications of sea level rise for the coastal zones of Cochin, southwest coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DineshKumar, P.K.

    scenarios with particular emphasis to the coastal environment, a detailed investigation was carried out in the study region (Dinesh Kumar, 2000). Beach transect data generated in the region were analysed to determine the effects of projected sea level rise... considered valid (Are Kont et al., 2003) as the general projections on average global sea level rise, which is used in the present investigation as the projected sea level rise scenarios. According to the climate change scenario results, the projected values...

  17. Integrative study of the mean sea level and its components

    CERN Document Server

    Champollion, Nicolas; Paul, Frank; Benveniste, Jérôme

    2017-01-01

    This volume presents the most recent results of global mean sea level variations over the satellite altimetry era (starting in the early 1990s) and associated contributions, such as glaciers and ice sheets mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and land water storage changes. Sea level is one of the best indicators of global climate changes as it integrates the response of several components of the climate system to external forcing factors (including anthropogenic forcing) and internal climate variability. Providing long, accurate records of the sea level at global and regional scales and of the various components causing sea level changes is of crucial importance to improve our understanding of climate processes at work and to validate the climate models used for future projections. The Climate Change Initiative project of the European Space Agency has provided a first attempt to produce consistent and continuous space-based records for several climate parameters observable from space, among them sea level. Th...

  18. Strategic environmental assessment and national development plans in Turkey: Towards legal framework and operational procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Say, Nuriye Peker; Yuecel, Muzaffer

    2006-01-01

    National development plans were started to be prepared in Turkey in 1963. These plans are mandatory for public investments and guiding principles for private investments. They have a quality which guides and sets objectives for other plans in the country. Therefore, they can be evaluated as the main reason of successes and failures of sectoral investments or the problems that they cause directly or indirectly. Turkey is undergoing rapid industrialization, urbanization and population growth, thus environmental problems are on the increase. Although Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) has been applied to individual investments in Turkey since 1993, natural environment has continued to be affected because of human activities. Today, parallel to the developments in the world, it has been discussed that it is necessary to strengthen project-level Environmental Assessment (EA) and to practice Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). The interest in SEA, that is, EA at the level of proposed policies, plans and programs has grown significantly since 2000 in the country. Discussions and preparations have started about regulation which provides the legal and institutional framework for SEA in The Ministry of Environment and Forestry. However, since the scientific approach into the subject is very new in Turkey, it will take time to answer the questions about how and in what fields to practice. This research project aims at analyzing the possible practice opportunities of SEA in Turkey and the practicability of SEA into the National Five-Year Development Plan (FYDP) which is assumed at the highest level of planning hierarchy in the country. The research is conducted on two sections. In the first section, procedural approaches to SEA on national development plans are investigated and a framework for these approaches is adapted at the institutional level. In the second section, SEA form for energy sector in the development plans is developed. In this article, the findings

  19. Collaborative Project. Understanding the effects of tides and eddies on the ocean dynamics, sea ice cover and decadal/centennial climate prediction using the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutchings, Jennifer [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Joseph, Renu [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

    2013-09-14

    The goal of this project is to develop an eddy resolving ocean model (POP) with tides coupled to a sea ice model (CICE) within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to investigate the importance of ocean tides and mesoscale eddies in arctic climate simulations and quantify biases associated with these processes and how their relative contribution may improve decadal to centennial arctic climate predictions. Ocean, sea ice and coupled arctic climate response to these small scale processes will be evaluated with regard to their influence on mass, momentum and property exchange between oceans, shelf-basin, ice-ocean, and ocean-atmosphere. The project will facilitate the future routine inclusion of polar tides and eddies in Earth System Models when computing power allows. As such, the proposed research addresses the science in support of the BER’s Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Long Term Measure as it will improve the ocean and sea ice model components as well as the fully coupled RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) and it will make them more accurate and computationally efficient.

  20. Probing sea quarks and gluons: the electron-ion collider project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horn, T.

    2014-01-01

    A future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) would be the world's first polarized electron-proton collider, and the world's first e-A collider, and would seek the QCD foundation of nucleons and nuclei in terms of the sea quarks and gluons, matching to these valence quark studies. The EIC will provide a versatile range of kinematics and beam polarization, as well as beam species, to allow for mapping the spin and spatial structure of the quark sea and gluons, to discover the collective effects of gluons in atomic nuclei, and to understand the emergence of hadronic matter from color charge. (authors)

  1. Performance Assessment Framework for Private Finance Initiative Projects in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lop Nor Suzila

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Private Finance Initiative (PFI is viewed as restructuring the previous privatisation concept in delivering value for money for the Malaysian public infrastructure. Among the restructuring efforts in the privatisation is specifying the standard assessment of private concessionaires’ performance through the execution of key performance indicators (KPIs where the private concessionaires’ performance is benchmarked against the government’s standard. KPIs have served as useful tools in assessing performance of PFI projects. However, there is still lacking on determination methods performed to define and measure this KPIs and the absence of guidelines or a framework is also an issue in the implementation of the PFI procurement in Malaysia. Therefore, the objectives of this paper is to investigate the notion of performance assessment model approaches globally (i.e. UK, China, Australia, Serbia and Malaysia and to identify direction for PFI performance assessment tools (KPIs to be practiced in Malaysia. Based on the consideration of these models, this research paper propose an initial framework of performance assessment for PFI projects in Malaysia. The framework is deliberate to cover the performance of PFI at the operation and maintenance phase. The outcomes of this paper can serve as a theoretical base for the development of comprehensive and effective performance assessment for PFI projects in Malaysia.

  2. Risk Assessment in the Istanbul Strait Using Black Sea MOU Port State Control Inspections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esma Gül Emecen Kara

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Istanbul Strait has intense maritime traffic while, at the same time, it poses significant navigational challenges. Due to these properties, there is always a high risk arising from maritime shipping in this region. Especially, substandard ships threaten life, as well as the marine environment. In this aspect, Black Sea Memorandum of Understanding (MOU Port State Control Inspections are important for maritime safety in the Istanbul Strait, because they directly reflect the performance of ships passing through the Istanbul Strait. Stringent and effective inspections assist in the enhancement of navigation safety and help to develop sustainable environment management. In this context, this study aims to assess maritime safety for the Strait region concerning passing flag states. Firstly, to assess the performance of flag states in general, the Black Sea MOU Black-Grey-White lists were generated for the period 2004–2014 and the change in the performance of these flags was examined. Secondly, the risk level of each flag state passing from the Strait region was determined using the method of weighted points based on the Black-Grey-White List, deficiency index level, casualty index level, and passing index level.

  3. Distribution of organic carbon in sediments from the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Paropkari, A.L.; Mascarenhas, A.; PrakashBabu, C.

    Many earlier studies on the distribution of organic carbon in the Arabian Sea, sediments have projected contradictory opinions on the factors favouring accumulation and preservation of organic carbon in the Arabian Sea. An attempt is made...

  4. Numerical assessment of factors affecting nonlinear internal waves in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qiang

    2014-02-01

    Nonlinear internal waves in the South China Sea exhibit diverse characteristics, which are associated with the complex conditions in Luzon Strait, such as the double ridge topography, the Earth’s rotation, variations in stratification and the background current induced by the Kuroshio. These effects are individually assessed using the MITgcm. The performance of the model is first validated through comparison with field observations. Because of in-phased ray interaction, the western ridge in Luzon Strait intensifies the semidiurnal internal tides generated from the eastern ridge, thus reinforcing the formation of nonlinear internal waves. However, the ray interaction for K1 forcing becomes anti-phased so that the K1 internal tide generation is reduced by the western ridge. Not only does the rotational dispersion suppress internal tide generation, it also inhibits nonlinear steepening and consequent internal solitary wave formation. As a joint effect, the double ridges and the rotational dispersion result in a paradoxical phenomenon: diurnal barotropic tidal forcing is dominant in Luzon Strait, but semidiurnal internal tides prevail in the deep basin of the South China Sea. The seasonal variation of the Kuroshio is consistent with the seasonal appearance of nonlinear internal waves in the South China Sea. The model results show that the westward inflow due to the Kuroshio intrusion reduces the amplitude of internal tides in the South China Sea, causing the weakening or absence of internal solitary waves. Winter stratification cannot account for the significant reduction of nonlinear internal waves, because the amplitude growth of internal tides due to increased thermocline tilting counteracts the reduced nonlinearity caused by thermocline deepening.

  5. Assessment of blue mussel Mytilus edulis fisheries and waterbird shellfish-predator management in the Danish Wadden Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Karsten; Kristensen, Per Sand; Clausen, Preben

    2010-01-01

    biomass and mussel bed areas in zones closed to fishery, (ii) decrease in eiders Somateria mollissima numbers and increase or stable numbers for oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus and herring gull Larus argentatus and (iii) that energy estimations based on ecological food requirements for the mussel-eating......We assessed the blue mussel Mytilus edulis fishery management scheme introduced in 1994 in the Danish Wadden Sea that regulate fishing vessels, fishery quota, set-aside for mussel-eating birds and established zones closed to mussel fishery. The results showed (i) a reduction in the blue mussel......, it is recommended to revise the present blue mussel management scheme in the Danish Wadden Sea, to continue and improve mussel stock and bird surveys, and to consider novel studies of the mussel-eating birds’ energetics for improved set-aside estimates and future assessments....

  6. An antemortem guide for the assessment of stranded Australian sea snakes (Hydrophiinae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillett, Amber K; Flint, Mark; Mills, Paul C

    2014-12-01

    Marine snakes of the subfamily Hydrophiinae are obligate ocean dwellers, unlike their amphibious counterparts, the sea kraits (Laticaudinae), and as such they are often referred to as 'true' sea snakes. This specialization means that the presence of a true sea snake on a beach is atypical and likely indicates disease or injury. Traumatic injuries such as eye, jaw, and spinal lesions have been observed in stranded sea snakes and may present as acute injury or progress to chronic debilitation. Diseases, such as neoplasia, leukemia, and parasite overburden, have also been seen in wild sea snakes, and these animals may present similarly. Sick, moribund, or deceased sea snakes are intermittently found washed ashore along Australian beaches, and these specimens may prove valuable as bioindicators of marine health. This review is intended as a guide to the diagnostic investigation of sick or injured sea snakes by suitably qualified people.

  7. Practical Tips and Techniques on the Process of Transdisciplinary Sea Level Rise Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLorme, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Kidwell, D.; Stephens, S. H.

    2015-12-01

    There is increasing awareness of the need for transdisciplinary science to address complex climate change issues, yet practical guidance is lacking. This presentation describes the iterative planning, implementation, and evaluation process of an ongoing transdisciplinary sea level rise (SLR) research project. Observations, reflections, and recommendations from firsthand experience are shared, illustrated with examples, and placed within a transdisciplinary research framework. The NOAA-sponsored project, Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (EESLR-NGOM) is a six-year regional study involving a team of biology, ecology, civil/coastal engineering, and communication scholars working with government agency personnel and industry professionals; supervising students and post-doctoral researchers; and engaging a group of non-academic stakeholders (i.e., coastal resource managers). EESLR-NGOM's focus is on detailed assessment and process-based modeling to project SLR impacts on northern Gulf of Mexico coastal wetland habitats and flood plains. This presentation highlights collaboration, communication, and project management considerations, and explains knowledge co-production from a dynamic combination of natural and social scientific methods (secondary data analysis, computer modeling, field observations, field and laboratory experiments, focus group interviews, surveys) and interrelated stakeholder engagement mechanisms (advisory committee, project flow chart, workshops, focus groups, webinars) infused throughout the EESLR-NGOM project to improve accessibility and utility of the scientific results and products. Attention is also given to project evaluation including monitoring, multiple quantitative and qualitative measures, and recognition of challenges and limitations. This presentation should generate productive dialogue and direction for similar endeavors to find transformative solutions to pressing problems of climate change.

  8. Benchmarking of numerical codes describing the dispersion of radionuclides in the Arctic Seas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, E.M.; Gurbutt, P.; Harms, I.

    1995-01-01

    As part of the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP) of IAEA a working group has been created to model the dispersal and transfer of radionuclides released from the radioactive waste disposed of in the Kara Sea. The aim of the benchmarking work is to quantitatively assess the reliability of the models, which would lead ultimately to the evaluation of consensus/best estimates of the concentration fields to be used in the radiological assessment. The results from the benchmarking have been compared and the results of the comparison are summarised in terms of agreement in maximum concentrations and when the maximum concentrations occurred. This has been carried out for both water and sediment, at each of the defined locations and for each of the radionuclides. The paper presents a full description of the benchmarking results and discusses the similarities and differences. The role of the exercise within the modelling programme of IASAP is also discussed and the planning for the next stage of the work is presented. 4 refs

  9. The radiological exposure of man from ingestion of Cs-137 and Sr-90 in seafood from the Baltic Sea. Pilot project: Marina-Balt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nielsen, S.P. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Oehlenschlaeger, M. [National Institute of Radiation Hygiene, Broenshoej (Denmark); Karlberg, O. [Swedish Radiation Protection Institute, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1995-04-01

    This report describes a limited radiological assessment of the collective doses to man from the intake of seafood from the Baltic Sea contaminated with the radionuclides Cs-137 and Sr-90. Information on fisheries statistics is presented. The most important source terms to radioactive contamination of Cs-137 and Sr-90 in the Baltic Sea are identified and quantified. A compartment model for the dispersion of radionuclides in European coastal waters including the Baltic Sea is described and tested by comparing model predictions with observations. Collective doses are calculated with the model for each of the source-term categories. (au) (11 tabs., 28 ills., 17 refs.).

  10. The radiological exposure of man from ingestion of Cs-137 and Sr-90 in seafood from the Baltic Sea. Pilot project: Marina-Balt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, S.P.; Oehlenschlaeger, M.; Karlberg, O.

    1995-04-01

    This report describes a limited radiological assessment of the collective doses to man from the intake of seafood from the Baltic Sea contaminated with the radionuclides Cs-137 and Sr-90. Information on fisheries statistics is presented. The most important source terms to radioactive contamination of Cs-137 and Sr-90 in the Baltic Sea are identified and quantified. A compartment model for the dispersion of radionuclides in European coastal waters including the Baltic Sea is described and tested by comparing model predictions with observations. Collective doses are calculated with the model for each of the source-term categories. (au) (11 tabs., 28 ills., 17 refs.)

  11. Documentation assessment, Project C-018H, 200-E area effluent treatment facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peres, M.W.; Connor, M.D.; Mertelendy, J.I.

    1994-01-01

    Project C-018H is one of the fourteen subprojects to the Hanford Environmental Compliance (HEC) Project. Project C-018H provides treatment and disposal for the 242-A Evaporator and PUREX plant process condensate waste streams. This project used the Integrated Management Team (IMT) approach proposed by RL. The IMT approach included all affected organizations on the project team to coordinate and execute all required project tasks, while striving to integrate and satisfy all technical, operational, functional, and organizational objectives. The HEC Projects were initiated in 1989. Project C-018H began in early 1990, with completion of construction currently targeted for mid-1995. This assessment was performed to evaluate the effectiveness of the management control on design documents and quality assurance records developed and submitted for processing, use, and retention for the Project. The assessment focused primarily on the overall adequacy and quality of the design documentation currently being submitted to the project document control function

  12. Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

  13. Development of a Multi-Domain Assessment Tool for Quality Improvement Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenbluth, Glenn; Burman, Natalie J; Ranji, Sumant R; Boscardin, Christy K

    2017-08-01

    Improving the quality of health care and education has become a mandate at all levels within the medical profession. While several published quality improvement (QI) assessment tools exist, all have limitations in addressing the range of QI projects undertaken by learners in undergraduate medical education, graduate medical education, and continuing medical education. We developed and validated a tool to assess QI projects with learner engagement across the educational continuum. After reviewing existing tools, we interviewed local faculty who taught QI to understand how learners were engaged and what these faculty wanted in an ideal assessment tool. We then developed a list of competencies associated with QI, established items linked to these competencies, revised the items using an iterative process, and collected validity evidence for the tool. The resulting Multi-Domain Assessment of Quality Improvement Projects (MAQIP) rating tool contains 9 items, with criteria that may be completely fulfilled, partially fulfilled, or not fulfilled. Interrater reliability was 0.77. Untrained local faculty were able to use the tool with minimal guidance. The MAQIP is a 9-item, user-friendly tool that can be used to assess QI projects at various stages and to provide formative and summative feedback to learners at all levels.

  14. The ECLSS Advanced Automation Project Evolution and Technology Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewberry, Brandon S.; Carnes, James R.; Lukefahr, Brenda D.; Rogers, John S.; Rochowiak, Daniel M.; Mckee, James W.; Benson, Brian L.

    1990-01-01

    Viewgraphs on Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) advanced automation project evolution and technology assessment are presented. Topics covered include: the ECLSS advanced automation project; automatic fault diagnosis of ECLSS subsystems descriptions; in-line, real-time chemical and microbial fluid analysis; and object-oriented, distributed chemical and microbial modeling of regenerative environmental control systems description.

  15. Mathematics authentic assessment on statistics learning: the case for student mini projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fauziah, D.; Mardiyana; Saputro, D. R. S.

    2018-03-01

    Mathematics authentic assessment is a form of meaningful measurement of student learning outcomes for the sphere of attitude, skill and knowledge in mathematics. The construction of attitude, skill and knowledge achieved through the fulfilment of tasks which involve active and creative role of the students. One type of authentic assessment is student mini projects, started from planning, data collecting, organizing, processing, analysing and presenting the data. The purpose of this research is to learn the process of using authentic assessments on statistics learning which is conducted by teachers and to discuss specifically the use of mini projects to improving students’ learning in the school of Surakarta. This research is an action research, where the data collected through the results of the assessments rubric of student mini projects. The result of data analysis shows that the average score of rubric of student mini projects result is 82 with 96% classical completeness. This study shows that the application of authentic assessment can improve students’ mathematics learning outcomes. Findings showed that teachers and students participate actively during teaching and learning process, both inside and outside of the school. Student mini projects also provide opportunities to interact with other people in the real context while collecting information and giving presentation to the community. Additionally, students are able to exceed more on the process of statistics learning using authentic assessment.

  16. Wabash River Coal Gasification Repowering Project: A DOE Assessment; FINAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    National Energy Technology Laboratory

    2002-01-01

    The goal of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Clean Coal Technology Program (CCT) is to furnish the energy marketplace with a number of advanced, more efficient, and environmentally responsible coal utilization technologies through demonstration projects. These projects seek to establish the commercial feasibility of the most promising advanced coal technologies that have developed beyond the proof-of-concept stage. This document serves as a DOE post-project assessment (PPA) of a project selected in CCT Round IV, the Wabash River Coal Gasification Repowering (WRCGR) Project, as described in a Report to Congress (U.S. Department of Energy 1992). Repowering consists of replacing an existing coal-fired boiler with one or more clean coal technologies to achieve significantly improved environmental performance. The desire to demonstrate utility repowering with a two-stage, pressurized, oxygen-blown, entrained-flow, integrated gasification combined-cycle (IGCC) system prompted Destec Energy, Inc., and PSI Energy, Inc., to form a joint venture and submit a proposal for this project. In July 1992, the Wabash River Coal Gasification Repowering Project Joint Venture (WRCGRPJV, the Participant) entered into a cooperative agreement with DOE to conduct this project. The project was sited at PSI Energy's Wabash River Generating Station, located in West Terre Haute, Indiana. The purpose of this CCT project was to demonstrate IGCC repowering using a Destec gasifier and to assess long-term reliability, availability, and maintainability of the system at a fully commercial scale. DOE provided 50 percent of the total project funding (for capital and operating costs during the demonstration period) of$438 million

  17. Investigating the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of sea level rise in the Galveston Bay, Texas region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subedee, M.; Dotson, M.; Gibeaut, J. C.

    2016-02-01

    Anthropogenic effects throughout the twenty-first century, particularly greenhouse gas emissions, have contributed to global climatic and environmental changes. Sea level rise (SLR) is one of these changes which is occurring along the Texas Coast and is amplified by land subsidence. SLR along the northern Texas coast is impacting sensitive coastal environments as well as human populations, and industries and infrastructure supporting those populations. Sea level data from the NOAA gauge at Galveston Pier 21 has shown an increase of 2.08 feet in relative sea level in 100 years. Given an expected increase in the rate of sea level rise in the next decades, the purpose of this study is to provide an in-depth assessment on the effects of relative sea level rise on the habitat distribution of highly valuable coastal wetlands in the Galveston Bay region. This study also focuses on projecting the potential socioeconomic losses due to coastal flooding that is amplified by SLR in the region. In this study, three SLR scenarios are modeled: a scenario based on a linear extrapolation of satellite altimetry data (0.21 m by 2100); the IPCC's RCP8.5 mean scenario (0.74 m by 2100); and a high-end scenario (1.8 m by 2100) as proposed by Jevrejeva et al. (2014). A land subsidence rate calculated by developing a subsidence grid using GPS-measured subsidence monitoring and releveling data is added to all these scenarios. The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is used to predict wetland conversion due to long-term SLR incorporating the processes of inundation, erosion, accretion, overwash, and saturation. Similarly, HAZUS-MH is used to evaluate the property damage to building stocks and the direct business interruption losses due to flooding caused by 100-year flood event scenario with three SLR scenarios. This coordinated research effort to assess the physical, environmental and policy impacts due to SLR is intended to enable policy-makers, managers, and the general public to

  18. Assessment of Smolt Condition for Travel Time Analysis Project, 1987-1997 Project Review.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schrock, Robin M.; Hans, Karen M.; Beeman, John W. [US Geological Survey, Western Fisheries Research Center, Columbia River Research Laboratory, Cook, WA

    1997-12-01

    The assessment of Smolt Condition for Travel Time Analysis Project (Bonneville Power Administration Project 87-401) monitored attributes of salmonid smolt physiology in the Columbia and Snake River basins from 1987 to 1997, under the Northwest Power Planning Council Fish and Wildlife Program, in cooperation with the Smolt Monitoring Program of the Fish Passage Center. The primary goal of the project was to investigate the physiological development of juvenile salmonids related to migration rates. The assumption was made that the level of smolt development, interacting with environmental factos such as flow, would be reflected in travel times. The Fish Passage Center applied the physiological measurements of smolt condition to Water Budget management, to regulate flows so as to decrease travel time and increase survival.

  19. Scenarios for potential radionuclide release from marine reactors dumped in the Kara Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynn, N.; Mount, M.; Gussgard, K.

    1995-01-01

    The largest inventory of radioactive materials dumped in the Kara Sea by the former Soviet Union comes from the spent nuclear fuel (SNF) of seven marine reactors, the current (1994) inventory of which makes a total of approximately 4.7x10 15 Bq. In progressing its work for the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project, under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Source Term Working Group has analysed the Source Term and subsequently developed a number of model scenarios for the potential release patterns of radionuclides into the Kara Sea from the SNF and activated components dumped within the marine reactors.These models are based on the present and future conditions of the barrier materials and their configuration within the dumped objects. They account for progressive corrosion of the outer and inner steel barriers, breakdown of the organic fillers, and degradation and leaching from the SNFs. Annual release rates are predicted to four thousand years into the future. 5 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  20. Adaptation to Sea Level Rise in Coastal Units of the National Park Service (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beavers, R. L.

    2010-12-01

    83 National Park Service (NPS) units contain nearly 12,000 miles of coastal, estuarine and Great Lakes shoreline and their associated resources. Iconic natural features exist along active shorelines in NPS units, including, e.g., Cape Cod, Padre Island, Hawaii Volcanoes, and the Everglades. Iconic cultural resources managed by NPS include the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse, Fort Sumter, the Golden Gate, and heiaus and fish traps along the coast of Hawaii. Impacts anticipated from sea level rise include inundation and flooding of beaches and low lying marshes, shoreline erosion of coastal areas, and saltwater intrusion into the water table. These impacts and other coastal hazards will threaten park beaches, marshes, and other resources and values; alter the viability of coastal roads; and require the NPS to re-evaluate the financial, safety, and environmental implications of maintaining current projects and implementing future projects in ocean and coastal parks in the context of sea level rise. Coastal erosion will increase as sea levels rise. Barrier islands along the coast of Louisiana and North Carolina may have already passed the threshold for maintaining island integrity in any scenario of sea level rise (U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Program Report 4.1). Consequently, sea level rise is expected to hasten the disappearance of historic coastal villages, coastal wetlands, forests, and beaches, and threaten coastal roads, homes, and businesses. While sea level is rising in most coastal parks, some parks are experiencing lower water levels due to isostatic rebound and lower lake levels. NPS funded a Coastal Vulnerability Project to evaluate the physical and geologic factors affecting 25 coastal parks. The USGS Open File Reports for each park are available at http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/. These reports were designed to inform park planning efforts. NPS conducted a Storm Vulnerability Project to provide ocean and coastal