WorldWideScience

Sample records for sea regime shift

  1. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  2. Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

  3. Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjorndal, Karen A.; Bolten, Alan B.; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S.; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A.G.; Santos, Armando J.B.; Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig; Meylan, Anne B.; Meylan, Peter A.; Gray, Jennifer; Hardy, Robert; Brost, Beth; Bresette, Michael; Gorham, Jonathan C.; Connett, Stephen; Crouchley, Barbara Van Sciver; Dawson, Mike; Hayes, Deborah; Diez, Carlos E.; van Dam, Robert P.; Willis, Sue; Nava, Mabel; Hart, Kristen M.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Crowder, Andrew; Pollock, Clayton; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Muñoz Tenería, Fernando A.; Herrera-Pavón, Roberto; Labrada-Martagón, Vanessa; Lorences, Armando; Negrete-Philippe, Ana; Lamont, Margaret M.; Foley, Allen M.; Bailey, Rhonda; Carthy, Raymond R.; Scarpino, Russell; McMichael, Erin; Provancha, Jane A.; Brooks, Annabelle; Jardim, Adriana; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; González-Paredes, Daniel; Estrades, Andrés; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Martínez-Souza, Gustavo; Vélez-Rubio, Gabriela M.; Boulon, Ralf H.; Collazo, Jaime; Wershoven, Robert; Hernández, Vicente Guzmán; Stringell, Thomas B.; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B.; Broderick, Annette C.; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta C.; Claydon, John A.B.; Metz, Tasha L.; Gordon, Amanda L.; Landry, Andre M.; Shaver, Donna J.; Blumenthal, Janice; Collyer, Lucy; Godley, Brendan J.; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J.; Campbell, Cathi L.; Lagueux, Cynthia J.; Bethel, Thomas L.; Kenyon, Lory

    2017-01-01

    Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles – hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta – exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – the strongest on record – combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -0.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = 0.74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study

  4. Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjorndal, Karen A; Bolten, Alan B; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A G; Santos, Armando J B; Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig; Meylan, Anne B; Meylan, Peter A; Gray, Jennifer; Hardy, Robert; Brost, Beth; Bresette, Michael; Gorham, Jonathan C; Connett, Stephen; Crouchley, Barbara Van Sciver; Dawson, Mike; Hayes, Deborah; Diez, Carlos E; van Dam, Robert P; Willis, Sue; Nava, Mabel; Hart, Kristen M; Cherkiss, Michael S; Crowder, Andrew G; Pollock, Clayton; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Muñoz Tenería, Fernando A; Herrera-Pavón, Roberto; Labrada-Martagón, Vanessa; Lorences, Armando; Negrete-Philippe, Ana; Lamont, Margaret M; Foley, Allen M; Bailey, Rhonda; Carthy, Raymond R; Scarpino, Russell; McMichael, Erin; Provancha, Jane A; Brooks, Annabelle; Jardim, Adriana; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; González-Paredes, Daniel; Estrades, Andrés; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Martínez-Souza, Gustavo; Vélez-Rubio, Gabriela M; Boulon, Ralf H; Collazo, Jaime A; Wershoven, Robert; Guzmán Hernández, Vicente; Stringell, Thomas B; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B; Broderick, Annette C; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta; Claydon, John A B; Metz, Tasha L; Gordon, Amanda L; Landry, Andre M; Shaver, Donna J; Blumenthal, Janice; Collyer, Lucy; Godley, Brendan J; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J; Campbell, Cathi L; Lagueux, Cynthia J; Bethel, Thomas L; Kenyon, Lory

    2017-11-01

    Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles-hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta-exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-the strongest on record-combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = .74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the

  5. The Mediterranean Sea regime shift at the end of the 1980s, and intriguing parallelisms with other European basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conversi, Alessandra; Fonda Umani, Serena; Peluso, Tiziana; Molinero, Juan Carlos; Santojanni, Alberto; Edwards, Martin

    2010-05-19

    Regime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins. In this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses) shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems. Our results show that the Mediterranean Sea underwent a major change at the end of the 1980s that encompassed atmospheric, hydrological, and ecological systems, for which it can be considered a regime shift. We further provide evidence that the local hydrography is linked to the larger scale, northern hemisphere climate. These results suggest that the shifts that affected the North, Baltic, Black and Mediterranean (this work) Seas at the end of the 1980s, that have been so far only partly associated, are likely linked as part a northern hemisphere change. These findings bear wide implications for the development of climate change scenarios, as synchronous shifts may provide the key for distinguishing local (i.e., basin

  6. The Mediterranean Sea regime shift at the end of the 1980s, and intriguing parallelisms with other European basins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Conversi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Regime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient. We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that the Mediterranean Sea underwent a major change at the end of the 1980s that encompassed atmospheric, hydrological, and ecological systems, for which it can be considered a regime shift. We further provide evidence that the local hydrography is linked to the larger scale, northern hemisphere climate. These results suggest that the shifts that affected the North, Baltic, Black and Mediterranean (this work Seas at the end of the 1980s, that have been so far only partly associated, are likely linked as part a northern hemisphere change. These findings bear wide implications for the development of climate change scenarios, as synchronous shifts

  7. An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lade, Steven J; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

    2015-09-01

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

  8. Recent surface cooling in the Yellow and East China Seas and the associated North Pacific climate regime shift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yong Sun; Jang, Chan Joo; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2018-03-01

    The Yellow and East China Seas (YECS) are widely believed to have experienced robust, basin-scale warming over the last few decades. However, the warming reached a peak in the late 1990s, followed by a significant cooling trend. In this study, we investigated the characteristics of this low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variance and its dynamic relationship with large-scale climate variability through cyclostationary orthogonal function analysis for the 1982-2014 period. Both regressed surface winds on the primary mode of the YECS SST and trends in air-sea heat fluxes demonstrate that the intensification of the northerly winds in winter contribute largely to the recent cooling trend by increasing heat loss to the atmosphere. As a localized oceanic response to these winds, the upwind flow seems to bring warm waters and partially counteracts the basin-scale cooling, thus contributing to a weakening of the cooling trend along the central trough of the Yellow Sea. In the context of the large-scale climate variabilities, a strong relationship between the YECS SST variability and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) became weak considerably during the recent cooling period after the late 1990s as the PDO signals appeared to be confined within the eastern basin of the North Pacific in association with the regime shift. In addition to this decoupling of the YECS SST from the PDO, the intensifying Siberian High pressure system likely caused the enhanced northerly winds, leading to the recent cooling trend. These findings highlight relative roles of the PDO and the Siberian High in shaping the YECS SST variance through the changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and attendant oceanic advection.

  9. Stochastic dynamical models for ecological regime shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Carstensen, Jacob; Madsen, Henrik

    the physical and biological knowledge of the system, and nonlinearities introduced here can generate regime shifts or enhance the probability of regime shifts in the case of stochastic models, typically characterized by a threshold value for the known driver. A simple model for light competition between...... definition and stability of regimes become less subtle. Ecological regime shifts and their modeling must be viewed in a probabilistic manner, particularly if such model results are to be used in ecosystem management....

  10. Regime shifts, resilience and recovery of a cod stock

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Diekmann, Rabea; Möllmann, Christian

    2010-01-01

    In the North and Baltic seas Atlantic cod Gadus morhua stocks collapsed as part or one of the major factors inducing large-scale ecosystem regime shifts. Determining the relative contribution of overfishing and climate variability in causing these shifts has proven difficult. While facing similar...

  11. Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hughes, T.P.; Carpenter, S.; Rockstrom, J.; Scheffer, M.; Walker, B.

    2013-01-01

    Life on Earth has repeatedly displayed abrupt and massive changes in the past, and there is no reason to expect that comparable planetary-scale regime shifts will not continue in the future. Different lines of evidence indicate that regime shifts occur when the climate or biosphere transgresses a

  12. Ecosystem regime shifts disrupt trophic structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hempson, Tessa N; Graham, Nicholas A J; MacNeil, M Aaron; Hoey, Andrew S; Wilson, Shaun K

    2018-01-01

    Regime shifts between alternative stable ecosystem states are becoming commonplace due to the combined effects of local stressors and global climate change. Alternative states are characterized as substantially different in form and function from pre-disturbance states, disrupting the delivery of ecosystem services and functions. On coral reefs, regime shifts are typically characterized by a change in the benthic composition from coral to macroalgal dominance. Such fundamental shifts in the benthos are anticipated to impact associated fish communities that are reliant on the reef for food and shelter, yet there is limited understanding of how regime shifts propagate through the fish community over time, relative to initial or recovery conditions. This study addresses this knowledge gap using long-term data of coral reef regime shifts and recovery on Seychelles reefs following the 1998 mass bleaching event. It shows how trophic structure of the reef fish community becomes increasingly dissimilar between alternative reef ecosystem states (regime-shifted vs. recovering) with time since disturbance. Regime-shifted reefs developed a concave trophic structure, with increased biomass in base trophic levels as herbivorous species benefitted from increased algal resources. Mid trophic level species, including specialists such as corallivores, declined with loss of coral habitat, while biomass was retained in upper trophic levels by large-bodied, generalist invertivores. Recovering reefs also experienced an initial decline in mid trophic level biomass, but moved toward a bottom-heavy pyramid shape, with a wide range of feeding groups (e.g., planktivores, corallivores, omnivores) represented at mid trophic levels. Given the importance of coral reef fishes in maintaining the ecological function of coral reef ecosystems and their associated fisheries, understanding the effects of regime shifts on these communities is essential to inform decisions that enhance ecological

  13. Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Groeger, Joachim P.

    2012-01-01

    methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face...

  14. Regime Shifts and Resilience in Fisheries Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Chuan Zhong; Villasante, Sebastian; Zhu, Xueqin

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the role of potential regime shifts in Argentinean hake fishery and the inter-linkage between ecological and economic resilience. We develop a theoretical model incorporated with the hazard function for resource management under alternative conditions, and derive the corrective

  15. Regime shift of snow days in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marty, Christoph

    2008-06-01

    The number of days with a snow depth above a certain threshold is the key factor for winter tourism in an Alpine country like Switzerland. An investigation of 34 long-term stations between 200 and 1800 m asl (above sea level) going back for at least the last 60 years (1948-2007) shows an unprecedented series of low snow winters in the last 20 years. The signal is uniform despite high regional differences. A shift detection analysis revealed a significant step-like decrease in snow days at the end of the 1980's with no clear trend since then. This abrupt change resulted in a loss of 20% to 60% of the total snow days. The stepwise increase of the mean winter temperature at the end of the 1980's and its close correlation with the snow day anomalies corroborate the sensitivity of the mid-latitude winter to the climate change induced temperature increase.

  16. Transformational Change and Regime Shifts in the Circumpolar Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annika E. Nilsson

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic is changing rapidly, and there are many indications that the region is in the midst of transformational change. While some of the focus relates to impacts of climate change, rapid economic development and the potential for shifts in political and social structures in the region have also been in the limelight. This article looks at the circumpolar Arctic as a potential case of a regime shift in a large-scale social–ecological system that includes reinforcing feedbacks. A special focus is placed on governance structures, as these play an important role in social negotiations on the relationship between societies and the environment. While climate change is often portrayed as a driver of social change in the Arctic, it does not appear that the ongoing changes in the biophysical features of the Arctic region have rocked current circumpolar governance structures out of kilter. On the contrary, the ongoing climate-related changes, in particular sea ice decline, appear to have reinforced political commitment to existing legal structures. Major past social regime shifts have mainly been related to access to resources and national identity ideology, with political dynamics reinforced at times by military security considerations.

  17. Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moellmann, C; Diekmann, Rabea; Muller-Karulis, B

    2009-01-01

    the Baltic Sea, the largest brackish water body in the world ocean, and its ecosystems are strongly affected by atmospheric and anthropogenic drivers. Here, we present results of an analysis of the state and development of the Central Baltic Sea ecosystem integrating hydroclimatic, nutrient, phyto......Marine ecosystems such as the Baltic Sea are currently under strong atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure. Besides natural and human-induced changes in climate, major anthropogenic drivers such as overfishing and anthropogenic eutrophication are significantly affecting ecosystem structure...

  18. Regime shifts and resilience in China's coastal ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ke

    2016-02-01

    Regime shift often results in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the provision of ecosystem services and can therefore have significant impacts on human wellbeing. Understanding regime shifts has profound implications for ecosystem recovery and management. China's coastal ecosystems have experienced substantial deterioration within the past decades, at a scale and speed the world has never seen before. Yet, information about this coastal ecosystem change from a dynamics perspective is quite limited. In this review, I synthesize existing information on coastal ecosystem regime shifts in China and discuss their interactions and cascading effects. The accumulation of regime shifts in China's coastal ecosystems suggests that the desired system resilience has been profoundly eroded, increasing the potential of abrupt shifts to undesirable states at a larger scale, especially given multiple escalating pressures. Policy and management strategies need to incorporate resilience approaches in order to cope with future challenges and avoid major losses in China's coastal ecosystem services.

  19. Integrated trend assessment of ecosystem changes in the Limfjord (Denmark): evidence of a recent regime shift?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tomczak, Maciej Tomasz; Dinesen, Grete E.; Hoffmann, Erik

    2012-01-01

    An integrated ecosystem assessment was carried out for the Limfjord over the period from 1984 to 2008 to describe changes in ecosystem structure and potentially important drivers. The Limfjord is an eutrophic transitional Danish fjord system with the main inflow from the North Sea in the west and...... further showed the regime shift to be driven by a combination of anthropogenic pressures and possible interplay with climatic disturbance......An integrated ecosystem assessment was carried out for the Limfjord over the period from 1984 to 2008 to describe changes in ecosystem structure and potentially important drivers. The Limfjord is an eutrophic transitional Danish fjord system with the main inflow from the North Sea in the west......), jellyfish, common shore crab, starfish and blue mussels. We interpret this change as a regime shift that showed a similar temporal pattern to regime shifts identified in adjacent seas. The observed changes in trophic interactions and food web reorganisation suggested a non-linear regime shift. The analyses...

  20. Beta Risk and Regime Shift in Market Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Don U.A. Galagedera; Roland G. Shami

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we relate security returns in the thirty securities in the Dow Jones index to regime shifts in the market portfolio (S&P500) volatility. We model market volatility as a multiple-state Markov switching process of order one and estimate non-diversifiable security risk (beta) in the different market volatility regimes. We test the significance of the premium of the beta risk associated with the different market regimes and find evidence of a relationship between security return an...

  1. Evaluating trophic cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pershing, Andrew J.; Mills, Katherine E.; Record, Nicholas R.; Stamieszkin, Karen; Wurtzell, Katharine V.; Byron, Carrie J.; Fitzpatrick, Dominic; Golet, Walter J.; Koob, Elise

    2015-01-01

    In ecosystems that are strongly structured by predation, reducing top predator abundance can alter several lower trophic levels—a process known as a trophic cascade. A persistent trophic cascade also fits the definition of a regime shift. Such ‘trophic cascade regime shifts' have been reported in a few pelagic marine systems—notably the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and eastern Scotian Shelf—raising the question of how common this phenomenon is in the marine environment. We provide a general methodology for distinguishing top-down and bottom-up effects and apply this methodology to time series from these three ecosystems. We found evidence for top-down forcing in the Black Sea due primarily to gelatinous zooplankton. Changes in the Baltic Sea are primarily bottom-up, strongly structured by salinity, but top-down forcing related to changes in cod abundance also shapes the ecosystem. Changes in the eastern Scotian Shelf that were originally attributed to declines in groundfish are better explained by changes in stratification. Our review suggests that trophic cascade regime shifts are rare in open ocean ecosystems and that their likelihood increases as the residence time of water in the system increases. Our work challenges the assumption that negative correlation between consecutive trophic levels implies top-down forcing.

  2. Trophic cascades triggered by overfishing reveal possible mechanisms of ecosystem regime shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskalov, Georgi M; Grishin, Alexander N; Rodionov, Sergei; Mihneva, Vesselina

    2007-06-19

    Large-scale transitions between alternative states in ecosystems are known as regime shifts. Once described as healthy and dominated by various marine predators, the Black Sea ecosystem by the late 20th century had experienced anthropogenic impacts such as heavy fishing, cultural eutrophication, and invasions by alien species. We studied changes related to these "natural experiments" to reveal the mechanisms of regime shifts. Two major shifts were detected, the first related to a depletion of marine predators and the second to an outburst of the alien comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi; both shifts were triggered by intense fishing resulting in system-wide trophic cascades. The complex nature of ecosystem responses to human activities calls for more elaborate approaches than currently provided by traditional environmental and fisheries management. This implies challenging existing practices and implementing explanatory models of ecosystem interactions that can better reconcile conservation and ecosystem management ideals.

  3. Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift | Science ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a∼2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia. This manuscript explores various methods of assessing the transition between alternative states in an ecological system described by a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset.

  4. Dynamic two state stochastic models for ecological regime shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Carstensen, Niels Jacob; Madsen, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    of the model illustrates that hysteresis effect and regime shifts can be obtained for a limited range of parameter values only. The effect of multiplicative noise components entering at different levels of the model is presented and discussed. Including noise leads to very different results on the stability...

  5. Early signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Mainak; Pal, Amit Kumar; Ghosh, Sayantari; Bose, Indrani

    2013-06-01

    Recently, a large number of studies have been carried out on the early signatures of sudden regime shifts in systems as diverse as ecosystems, financial markets, population biology and complex diseases. The signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics are less systematically investigated. In this paper, we consider sudden regime shifts in the gene expression dynamics described by a fold-bifurcation model involving bistability and hysteresis. We consider two alternative models, models 1 and 2, of competence development in the bacterial population B. subtilis and determine some early signatures of the regime shifts between competence and noncompetence. We use both deterministic and stochastic formalisms for the purpose of our study. The early signatures studied include the critical slowing down as a transition point is approached, rising variance and the lag-1 autocorrelation function, skewness and a ratio of two mean first passage times. Some of the signatures could provide the experimental basis for distinguishing between bistability and excitability as the correct mechanism for the development of competence.

  6. Early signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pal, Mainak; Pal, Amit Kumar; Ghosh, Sayantari; Bose, Indrani

    2013-01-01

    Recently, a large number of studies have been carried out on the early signatures of sudden regime shifts in systems as diverse as ecosystems, financial markets, population biology and complex diseases. The signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics are less systematically investigated. In this paper, we consider sudden regime shifts in the gene expression dynamics described by a fold-bifurcation model involving bistability and hysteresis. We consider two alternative models, models 1 and 2, of competence development in the bacterial population B. subtilis and determine some early signatures of the regime shifts between competence and noncompetence. We use both deterministic and stochastic formalisms for the purpose of our study. The early signatures studied include the critical slowing down as a transition point is approached, rising variance and the lag-1 autocorrelation function, skewness and a ratio of two mean first passage times. Some of the signatures could provide the experimental basis for distinguishing between bistability and excitability as the correct mechanism for the development of competence. (paper)

  7. The legacy of large regime shifts in shallow lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramstack Hobbs, Joy M; Hobbs, William O; Edlund, Mark B; Zimmer, Kyle D; Theissen, Kevin M; Hoidal, Natalie; Domine, Leah M; Hanson, Mark A; Herwig, Brian R; Cotner, James B

    2016-12-01

    Ecological shifts in shallow lakes from clear-water macrophyte-dominated to turbid-water phytoplankton-dominated are generally thought of as rapid short-term transitions. Diatom remains in sediment records from shallow lakes in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America provide new evidence that the long-term ecological stability of these lakes is defined by the legacy of large regime shifts. We examine the modern and historical stability of 11 shallow lakes. Currently, four of the lakes are in a clear-water state, three are consistently turbid-water, and four have been observed to change state from year to year (transitional). Lake sediment records spanning the past 150-200 yr suggest that (1) the diatom assemblage is characteristic of either clear or turbid lakes, (2) prior to significant landscape alteration, all of the lakes existed in a regime of a stable clear-water state, (3) lakes that are currently classified as turbid or transitional have experienced one strong regime shift over the past 150-200 yr and have since remained in a regime where turbid-water predominates, and (4) top-down impacts to the lake food-web from fish introductions appear to be the dominant driver of strong regime shifts and not increased nutrient availability. Based on our findings we demonstrate a method that could be used by lake managers to identify lakes that have an ecological history close to the clear-turbid regime threshold; such lakes might more easily be returned to a clear-water state through biomanipulation. The unfortunate reality is that many of these lakes are now part of a managed landscape and will likely require continued intervention. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  8. Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana,USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts. Communities of organisms from mammals to microorganisms have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at discrete spatial and temporal scales within ecosystems. Here, a paleoecological record of diatom community change is use

  9. Decision Making under Ecological Regime Shift: An Experimental Economic Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Kawata, Yukichika

    2011-01-01

    Environmental economics postulates the assumption of homo economicus and presumes that externality occurs as a result of the rational economic activities of economic agents. This paper examines this assumption using an experimental economic approach in the context of regime shift, which has been receiving increasing attention. We observe that when externality does not exist, economic agents (subjects of experimemt) act economically rationally, but when externality exists, economic agents avoi...

  10. Regime shifts in the marine environment: the scientific basis and political context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraberg, Alexandra C; Wasmund, Norbert; Vanaverbeke, Jan; Schiedek, Doris; Wiltshire, Karen H; Mieszkowska, Nova

    2011-01-01

    Regime shifts in the marine environment have recently received much attention. To date, however, few large-scale meta-analyses have been carried out due to insufficient data coverage and integration between sustained observational datasets because of diverse methodologies used in data collection, recording and archival. Here we review the available data on regime shifts globally, followed by a review of current and planned policies with relevance to regime shifts. We then focus on the North and Baltic Seas, providing examples of existing efforts for data integration in the MarBEF Network of Excellence. Existing gaps in data coverage are identified, and the added value from meta-analyses of multiple datasets demonstrated using examples from the MarBEF integrated data project LargeNet. We discuss whether these efforts are addressing current policy needs and close with recommendations for future integrated data networks to increase our ability to understand, identify and predict recent and future regime shifts. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Millennial-scale plankton regime shifts in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, Kelton W; McCarthy, Matthew D; Sherwood, Owen A; Larsen, Thomas; Guilderson, Thomas P

    2015-12-18

    Climate change is predicted to alter marine phytoplankton communities and affect productivity, biogeochemistry, and the efficacy of the biological pump. We reconstructed high-resolution records of changing plankton community composition in the North Pacific Ocean over the past millennium. Amino acid-specific δ(13)C records preserved in long-lived deep-sea corals revealed three major plankton regimes corresponding to Northern Hemisphere climate periods. Non-dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria dominated during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 Common Era) before giving way to a new regime in which eukaryotic microalgae contributed nearly half of all export production during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1850 Common Era). The third regime, unprecedented in the past millennium, began in the industrial era and is characterized by increasing production by dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. This picoplankton community shift may provide a negative feedback to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  12. A Review of the Detection Methods for Climate Regime Shifts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qunqun Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An abrupt climate change means that the climate system shifts from a steady state to another steady state. Study on the phenomenon and theory of the abrupt climate change is a new research field of modern climatology, and it is of great significance for the prediction of future climate change. The climate regime shift is one of the most common forms of abrupt climate change, which mainly refers to the statistical significant changes on the variable of climate system at one time scale. These detection methods can be roughly divided into five categories based on different types of abrupt changes, namely, abrupt mean value change, abrupt variance change, abrupt frequency change, abrupt probability density change, and the multivariable analysis. The main research progress of abrupt climate change detection methods is reviewed. What is more, some actual applications of those methods in observational data are provided. With the development of nonlinear science, many new methods have been presented for detecting an abrupt dynamic change in recent years, which is useful supplement for the abrupt change detection methods.

  13. Do limiting factors at Alaskan treelines shift with climatic regimes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohse, B; Jansen, F; Wilmking, M

    2012-01-01

    Trees at Alaskan treelines are assumed to be limited by temperature and to expand upslope and/or to higher latitudes with global warming. However, recent studies describe negative temperature responses and drought stress of Alaskan treeline trees in recent decades. In this study, we have analyzed the responses of treeline white spruce to temperature and precipitation according to different climatic regimes in Alaska, described as negative (cool) and positive (warm) phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We found that in three consecutive phases (positive from 1925–46, negative from 1947–76, and positive again from 1977–98), the growth responses to temperature and precipitation differed markedly. Before 1947, in a phase of warm winters and with summer temperatures being close to the century mean, the trees at most sites responded positively to summer temperature, as one would expect from treeline trees at northern high latitudes. Between 1947 and 1976, a phase of cold winters and average summers, the trees showed similar responses, but a new pattern of negative responses to the summer temperature of the year prior to growth coupled with positive responses to the precipitation in the same year emerged at some sites. As the precipitation was relatively low at those sites, we assume that drought stress might have played a role. However, the climate responses were not uniform but were modified by regional gradients (trees at northern sites responded more often to temperature than trees at southern sites) and local site conditions (forest trees responded more often to precipitation than treeline trees), possibly reflecting differences in energy and water balance across regions and sites, respectively. However, since the shift in the PDO in 1976 from a negative to a positive phase, the trees’ climate–growth responses are much less pronounced and climate seems to have lost its importance as a limiting factor for the growth of treeline white spruce. If

  14. Shifting environmental baselines in the Red Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, A R G; Ghazi, S J; Tkaczynski, P J; Venkatachalam, A J; Santillan, A; Pancho, T; Metcalfe, R; Saunders, J

    2014-01-15

    The Red Sea is among the world's top marine biodiversity hotspots. We re-examined coastal ecosystems at sites surveyed during the 1980s using the same methodology. Coral cover increased significantly towards the north, mirroring the reverse pattern for mangroves and other sedimentary ecosystems. Latitudinal patterns are broadly consistent across both surveys and with results from independent studies. Coral cover showed greatest change, declining significantly from a median score of 4 (1000-9999 m(2)) to 2 (10-99m(2)) per quadrat in 2010/11. This may partly reflect impact from coastal construction, which was evident at 40% of sites and has significantly increased in magnitude over 30 years. Beach oil has significantly declined, but shore debris has increased significantly. Although substantial, levels are lower than at some remote ocean atolls. While earlier reports have suggested that the Red Sea is generally healthy, shifting environmental baselines are evident from the current study. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Projected Regime Shift in Arctic Cloud and Water Vapor Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yonghua; Miller, James R.; Francis, Jennifer; Russel, Gary L.

    2011-01-01

    The Arctic climate is changing faster than any other large-scale region on Earth. A variety of positive feedback mechanisms are responsible for the amplification, most of which are linked with changes in snow and ice cover, surface temperature (T(sub s)), atmospheric water vapor (WV), and cloud properties. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, air temperature and water vapor content also increase, leading to a warmer surface and ice loss, which further enhance evaporation and WV. Many details of these interrelated feedbacks are poorly understood, yet are essential for understanding the pace and regional variations in future Arctic change. We use a global climate model (Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Atmosphere-Ocean Model) to examine several components of these feedbacks, how they vary by season, and how they are projected to change through the 21st century. One positive feedback begins with an increase in T(sub s) that produces an increase in WV, which in turn increases the downward longwave flux (DLF) and T(sub s), leading to further evaporation. Another associates the expected increases in cloud cover and optical thickness with increasing DLF and T(sub s). We examine the sensitivities between DLF and other climate variables in these feedbacks and find that they are strongest in the non-summer seasons, leading to the largest amplification in Ts during these months. Later in the 21st century, however, DLF becomes less sensitive to changes in WV and cloud optical thickness, as they cause the atmosphere to emit longwave radiation more nearly as a black body. This regime shift in sensitivity implies that the amplified pace of Arctic change relative to the northern hemisphere could relax in the future.

  16. Interacting Regional-Scale Regime Shifts for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leadley, P.; Proenca, V.; Fernandez-Manjarres, J.; Pereira, H.M.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Biggs, R.; Bruley, E.; Cheung, W.; Cooper, D.; Figueiredo, J.; Gilman, E.; Guenette, S.; Hurtt, G.; Mbow, C.; Oberdorff, T.; Revenga, C.; Scharlemann, J.P.W.; Scholes, R.; Smith, M.S.; Sumaila, U.R.; Walpole, M.

    2014-01-01

    Current trajectories of global change may lead to regime shifts at regional scales, driving coupled human-environment systems to highly degraded states in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. For business-as-usual socioeconomic development pathways, regime shifts are

  17. Variance as a Leading Indicator of Regime Shift in Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William A. Brock

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Many environmental conflicts involve pollutants such as greenhouse gas emissions that are dispersed through space and cause losses of ecosystem services. As pollutant emissions rise in one place, a spatial cascade of declining ecosystem services can spread across a larger landscape because of the dispersion of the pollutant. This paper considers the problem of anticipating such spatial regime shifts by monitoring time series of the pollutant or associated ecosystem services. Using such data, it is possible to construct indicators that rise sharply in advance of regime shifts. Specifically, the maximum eigenvalue of the variance-covariance matrix of the multivariate time series of pollutants and ecosystem services rises prior to the regime shift. No specific knowledge of the mechanisms underlying the regime shift is needed to construct the indicator. Such leading indicators of regime shifts could provide useful signals to management agencies or to investors in ecosystem service markets.

  18. Early signatures of regime shifts in complex dynamical systems

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2015-02-05

    Feb 5, 2015 ... journal of. February 2015 ... populations, financial markets, complex diseases and gene circuits. ... A recent exhaustive analysis of recorded ecosystem shifts points to an approach- .... The quantitative estimation of these.

  19. Land-use regime shifts: an analytical framework and agenda for future land-use research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navin Ramankutty

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A key research frontier in global change research lies in understanding processes of land change to inform predictive models of future land states. We believe that significant advances in the field are hampered by limited attention being paid to critical points of change termed land-use regime shifts. We present an analytical framework for understanding land-use regime shifts. We survey historical events of land change and perform in-depth case studies of soy and shrimp development in Latin America to demonstrate the role of preconditions, triggers, and self-reinforcing processes in driving land-use regime shifts. Whereas the land-use literature demonstrates a good understanding of within-regime dynamics, our understanding of the drivers of land-use regime shifts is limited to ex post facto explications. Theoretical and empirical advances are needed to better understand the dynamics and implications of land-use regime shifts. We draw insights from the regime-shifts literature to propose a research agenda for studying land change.

  20. Anticipating regime shifts in gene expression: The case of an autoactivating positive feedback loop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Yogita; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Gupta, A. K.

    2016-03-01

    Considerable evidence suggests that anticipating sudden shifts from one state to another in bistable dynamical systems is a challenging task; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and complex diseases. In this paper, we investigate the effects of additive, multiplicative, and cross-correlated stochastic perturbations on determining the regime shifts in a bistable gene regulatory system, which gives rise to two distinct states of low and high concentrations of protein. We obtain the stationary probability density and mean first-passage time of the system. We show that increasing the additive (multiplicative) noise intensity induces a regime shift from a low (high) to a high (low) protein concentration state. However, an increase in the cross-correlation intensity always induces regime shifts from a high to a low protein concentration state. For both bifurcation-induced (often called the tipping point) and noise-induced (called stochastic switching) regime shifts, we further explore the robustness of recently developed critical-down-based early warning signal (EWS) indicators (e.g., rising variance and lag-1 autocorrelation) on our simulated time-series data. We identify that using EWS indicators, prediction of an impending bifurcation-induced regime shift is relatively easier than that of a noise-induced regime shift in the considered system. Moreover, the success of EWS indicators also strongly depends upon the nature of the noise.

  1. Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises,

  2. Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne De; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A.; Niklasson, Mats

    2016-03-01

    Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone.

  3. Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne de; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A.; Niklasson, Mats

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone. PMID:26940995

  4. Kittiwake diets and chick production signal a 2008 regime shift in the Northeast Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatch, Scott A.

    2013-01-01

    I examined ~2700 food samples collected from adult and nestling black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla from 1978 through 2011 on Middleton Island in the Gulf of Alaska. The kittiwake diet was composed chiefly of fish, but invertebrates were taken in appreciable quantities in April and May. Upon spring arrival at the colony, adult kittiwakes foraged regularly at night on vertically migrating mesopelagic prey—lanternfishes (Myctophidae), squids, crustaceans, and polychaetes—a behavior they largely discontinued by egg-laying. During incubation and chick-rearing, food samples contained mostly (~85% by weight) Pacific sand lance Ammodytes hexapterus, capelin Mallotus villosus, Pacific herring Clupea pallasii, sablefish Anopoploma fimbria, krill (Euphausiidae), and juvenile salmon Onchorynchus gorboscha and O. keta. A salient finding over the longitudinal study was the emergence, twice, of capelin as a dominant forage species—once in 2000 to 2003, and again in 2008 through 2011. Kittiwakes responded to capelin availability by producing markedly higher numbers of fledged young. The 2000 to 2003 event corresponded to a previously documented shift to cooler conditions in the NE Pacific, which apparently was relatively limited in magnitude or duration. The more recent transition appears stronger and may be more lasting. I submit that 2008 was an important turning point, marking a substantive reversal of warm conditions that began with the well-documented regime shift of 1977. That interpretation is consistent with the existence of a ~60 yr cycle in ocean and atmospheric conditions in the North Pacific. All else being equal, it predicts the next 20 to 30 yr will be favorable for species such as kittiwakes and Steller sea lions, which seemed to respond negatively to the 1977 to 2007 warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

  5. The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004–2008 US Housing Market Bubble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheong, Siew Ann

    2016-01-01

    The Subprime Bubble preceding the Subprime Crisis of 2008 was fueled by risky lending practices, manifesting in the form of a large abrupt increase in the proportion of subprime mortgages issued in the US. This event also coincided with critical slowing down signals associated with instability, which served as evidence of a regime shift or phase transition in the US housing market. Here, we show that the US housing market underwent a regime shift between alternate stable states consistent with the observed critical slowing down signals. We modeled this regime shift on a universal transition path and validated the model by estimating when the bubble burst. Additionally, this model reveals loose monetary policy to be a plausible cause of the phase transition, implying that the bubble might have been deflatable by a timely tightening of monetary policy. PMID:27583633

  6. Regime shifts in demersal assemblages of the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem: a comparative assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkman, Stephen P.; Yemane, Dawit; Atkinson, Lara J.

    2015-01-01

    Using long‐term survey data, changes in demersal faunal communities in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem were analysed at community and population levels to provide a comparative overview of the occurrence and timing of regime shifts. For South Africa, the timing of a community‐level sh......Using long‐term survey data, changes in demersal faunal communities in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem were analysed at community and population levels to provide a comparative overview of the occurrence and timing of regime shifts. For South Africa, the timing of a community...

  7. Catastrophic regime shifts in model ecological communities are true phase transitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capitán, J A; Cuesta, J A

    2010-01-01

    Ecosystems often undergo abrupt regime shifts in response to gradual external changes. These shifts are theoretically understood as a regime switch between alternative stable states of the ecosystem dynamical response to smooth changes in external conditions. Usual models introduce nonlinearities in the macroscopic dynamics of the ecosystem that lead to different stable attractors among which the shift takes place. Here we propose an alternative explanation of catastrophic regime shifts based on a recent model that pictures ecological communities as systems in continuous fluctuation, according to certain transition probabilities, between different micro-states in the phase space of viable communities. We introduce a spontaneous extinction rate that accounts for gradual changes in external conditions, and upon variations on this control parameter the system undergoes a regime shift with similar features to those previously reported. Under our microscopic viewpoint we recover the main results obtained in previous theoretical and empirical work (anomalous variance, hysteresis cycles, trophic cascades). The model predicts a gradual loss of species in trophic levels from bottom to top near the transition. But more importantly, the spectral analysis of the transition probability matrix allows us to rigorously establish that we are observing the fingerprints, in a finite size system, of a true phase transition driven by background extinctions

  8. SeaQuest/E906 Shift Alarm System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitts, Noah

    2014-09-01

    SeaQuest, Fermilab E906, is a fixed target experiment that measures the Drell-Yan cross-section ratio of proton-proton to proton-deuterium collisions in order to extract the sea anti-quark structure of the proton. SeaQuest will extend the measurements made by E866/NuSea with greater precision at higher Bjorken-x. The continuously running experiment is always being monitored. Those on shift must keep track of all of the detector readouts in order to make sure the experiment is running correctly. As an experiment that is still in its early stages of running, an alarm system for people on shift is being created to provide warnings, such as a plot showing a detector's performance is sufficiently different to need attention. This plan involves python scripts that track live data. When the data shows a problem within the experiment, a corresponding alarm ID is sent to the MySQL database which then sets off an alarm. These alarms, which will alert the person on shift through both an audible and visual response, are important for ensuring that issues do not go unnoticed, and to help make sure the experiment is recording good data.

  9. Critical slowing down associated with regime shifts in the US housing market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, James Peng Lung; Cheong, Siew Siew Ann

    2014-02-01

    Complex systems are described by a large number of variables with strong and nonlinear interactions. Such systems frequently undergo regime shifts. Combining insights from bifurcation theory in nonlinear dynamics and the theory of critical transitions in statistical physics, we know that critical slowing down and critical fluctuations occur close to such regime shifts. In this paper, we show how universal precursors expected from such critical transitions can be used to forecast regime shifts in the US housing market. In the housing permit, volume of homes sold and percentage of homes sold for gain data, we detected strong early warning signals associated with a sequence of coupled regime shifts, starting from a Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and ending with the Subprime Crisis in 2007-2008. Weaker signals of critical slowing down were also detected in the US housing market data during the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2000-2001 Technology Bubble Crisis. Backed by various macroeconomic data, we propose a scenario whereby hot money flowing back into the US during the Asian Financial Crisis fueled the Technology Bubble. When the Technology Bubble collapsed in 2000-2001, the hot money then flowed into the US housing market, triggering the Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and an ensuing sequence of transitions. We showed how this sequence of couple transitions unfolded in space and in time over the whole of US.

  10. Modelling regime shifts in the southern Benguela: a frame-based ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Modelling regime shifts in the southern Benguela: a frame-based approach. MD Smith, A Jarre. Abstract. This study explores the usefulness of a frame-based modelling approach in the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem, with four frames describing observed small pelagic fish dominance patterns. We modelled the ...

  11. Probe-controlled soliton frequency shift in the regime of optical event horizon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gu, Jie; Guo, Hairun; Wang, Shaofei

    2015-01-01

    In optical analogy of the event horizon, temporal pulse collision and mutual interactions are mainly between an intense solitary wave (soliton) and a dispersive probe wave. In such a regime, here we numerically investigate the probe-controlled soliton frequency shift as well as the soliton self...

  12. Links between the recruitment success of northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius L.) and a regime shift on the NE Atlantic continental shelf

    KAUST Repository

    Goikoetxea, Nerea

    2013-07-01

    The distribution of northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius L.) extends from the Bay of Biscay up to Norwegian waters. However, despite its wide geographical distribution, there have been few studies on fluctuations in the European hake populations. Marine ecosystem shifts have been investigated worldwide and their influence on trophic levels has been studied, from top predator fish populations down to planktonic prey species, but there is little information on the effect of atmosphere-ocean shifts on European hake. This work analyses hake recruitment success (recruits per adult biomass) in relation to environmental changes over the period 1978-2006 in order to determine whether the regime shift identified in several abiotic and biotic variables in the North Sea also affected the Northeast Atlantic shelf oceanography. Hake recruitment success as well as parameters such as the sea surface temperature, wind patterns and copepod abundance changed significantly at the end of the 1980s, demonstrating an ecological regime shift in the Northeast Atlantic. Despite the low reproductive biomass recorded during the last decades, hake recruitment success has been higher since the change in 1989/90. The higher productivity may have sustained the population despite the intense fishing pressure; copepod abundance, warmer water temperatures and moderate eastward transport were found to be beneficial. In conclusion, in 1988/89 the Northeast Atlantic environment shifted to a favourable regime for northern hake production. This study supports the hypothesis that the hydro-climatic regime shift that affected the North Sea in the late 1980s may have influenced a wider region, such as the Northeast Atlantic. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Regime Shift Identification of Runoff and Sediment Loads in the Yellow River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Wang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Runoff and sediment loads have exhibited significant changes over the past six decades in the Yellow River Basin, China. The current study evaluates the changing trends and regime shifts in runoff and sediment loads at both the annual and monthly time scales. The associated spatial and temporal variations are analyzed by a sequential t-test analysis of the regime shifts (STARS approach and the “breaks for additive seasonal and trend” (BFAST model using hydrological data at eight stations from the 1950s to 2011. Both runoff and sediment loads exhibit significant declines (p < 0.05, except in the upper reaches of the river near the Tangnaihai station. The regime shifts detected by the STARS approach are not completely consistent with the results from the BFAST method. In most cases, the regime shifts occurred in 1969 and 1986, due to the construction of large reservoirs. Climate change and other human activities, such as large-scale soil and water conservation measures, can result in abrupt changes in hydrological series at some stations. The trapping effects of reservoirs not only cause regime shifts of runoff and sediment loads, but also adjust their inter-annual and seasonal distributions. Various soil and water conservation measures are responsible for the significant reduction in runoff and sediment loads in the mid-lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin. In addition, water withdrawals from both river runoff and ground water play a critical role in the changing trends in runoff and indirectly alter the sediment loads. The findings provide a good reference for the effective promotion of climate change adaptation, water resources planning and river basin management.

  14. Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jucker Riva, Matteo; Schwilch, Gudrun; Liniger, Hanspeter

    2015-04-01

    Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users' knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio

  15. Representing Sudden Shifts in Intensive Dyadic Interaction Data Using Differential Equation Models with Regime Switching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Sy-Miin; Ou, Lu; Ciptadi, Arridhana; Prince, Emily B; You, Dongjun; Hunter, Michael D; Rehg, James M; Rozga, Agata; Messinger, Daniel S

    2018-06-01

    A growing number of social scientists have turned to differential equations as a tool for capturing the dynamic interdependence among a system of variables. Current tools for fitting differential equation models do not provide a straightforward mechanism for diagnosing evidence for qualitative shifts in dynamics, nor do they provide ways of identifying the timing and possible determinants of such shifts. In this paper, we discuss regime-switching differential equation models, a novel modeling framework for representing abrupt changes in a system of differential equation models. Estimation was performed by combining the Kim filter (Kim and Nelson State-space models with regime switching: classical and Gibbs-sampling approaches with applications, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1999) and a numerical differential equation solver that can handle both ordinary and stochastic differential equations. The proposed approach was motivated by the need to represent discrete shifts in the movement dynamics of [Formula: see text] mother-infant dyads during the Strange Situation Procedure (SSP), a behavioral assessment where the infant is separated from and reunited with the mother twice. We illustrate the utility of a novel regime-switching differential equation model in representing children's tendency to exhibit shifts between the goal of staying close to their mothers and intermittent interest in moving away from their mothers to explore the room during the SSP. Results from empirical model fitting were supplemented with a Monte Carlo simulation study to evaluate the use of information criterion measures to diagnose sudden shifts in dynamics.

  16. Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Nicholas A J; Jennings, Simon; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mouillot, David; Wilson, Shaun K

    2015-02-05

    Climate-induced coral bleaching is among the greatest current threats to coral reefs, causing widespread loss of live coral cover. Conditions under which reefs bounce back from bleaching events or shift from coral to algal dominance are unknown, making it difficult to predict and plan for differing reef responses under climate change. Here we document and predict long-term reef responses to a major climate-induced coral bleaching event that caused unprecedented region-wide mortality of Indo-Pacific corals. Following loss of >90% live coral cover, 12 of 21 reefs recovered towards pre-disturbance live coral states, while nine reefs underwent regime shifts to fleshy macroalgae. Functional diversity of associated reef fish communities shifted substantially following bleaching, returning towards pre-disturbance structure on recovering reefs, while becoming progressively altered on regime shifting reefs. We identified threshold values for a range of factors that accurately predicted ecosystem response to the bleaching event. Recovery was favoured when reefs were structurally complex and in deeper water, when density of juvenile corals and herbivorous fishes was relatively high and when nutrient loads were low. Whether reefs were inside no-take marine reserves had no bearing on ecosystem trajectory. Although conditions governing regime shift or recovery dynamics were diverse, pre-disturbance quantification of simple factors such as structural complexity and water depth accurately predicted ecosystem trajectories. These findings foreshadow the likely divergent but predictable outcomes for reef ecosystems in response to climate change, thus guiding improved management and adaptation.

  17. Preventing regime shifts on the Colorado Plateau: Application of ecological threshold concepts to land management decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Investigating the mechanisms responsible for ecological thresholds is essential to understanding processes leading to ecosystem regime shifts. Dryland ecosystems are especially prone to threshold behavior wherein stressor-mediated alteration of patterns and processes can shift systems to alternative...

  18. Shifting balance of thermokarst lake ice regimes across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Lu, Zong; Whitman, Matthew S.

    2012-01-01

    The balance of thermokarst lakes with bedfast- and floating-ice regimes across Arctic lowlands regulates heat storage, permafrost thaw, winter-water supply, and over-wintering aquatic habitat. Using a time-series of late-winter synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to distinguish lake ice regimes in two regions of the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska from 2003–2011, we found that 18% of the lakes had intermittent ice regimes, varying between bedfast-ice and floating-ice conditions. Comparing this dataset with a radar-based lake classification from 1980 showed that 16% of the bedfast-ice lakes had shifted to floating-ice regimes. A simulated lake ice thinning trend of 1.5 cm/yr since 1978 is believed to be the primary factor driving this form of lake change. The most profound impacts of this regime shift in Arctic lakes may be an increase in the landscape-scale thermal offset created by additional lake heat storage and its role in talik development in otherwise continuous permafrost as well as increases in over-winter aquatic habitat and winter-water supply.

  19. Imprint of past environmental regimes on structure and succession of a deep-sea hydrothermal vent community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullineaux, Lauren S; Micheli, Fiorenza; Peterson, Charles H; Lenihan, Hunter S; Markus, Nilauro

    2009-08-01

    Dramatic perturbations of ecological communities through rapid shifts in environmental regime do not always result in complete mortality of residents. Instead, legacy individuals may remain and influence the succession and composition of subsequent communities. We used a reciprocal transplant experiment to investigate whether a legacy effect is detectable in communities experiencing an abrupt increase or decrease in hydrothermal fluid flux at deep-sea vents. Vent habitats are characterized by strong gradients in productivity and physico-chemical stressors, both of which tend to increase with increasing vent fluid flux. In our experiments, many species survived transplantation from cool (water temperatures theory developed in the rocky intertidal that predicts the predominance of physical control at the high-stress end of an environmental gradient. Prediction of successional transitions in vents and other habitats experiencing regime shifts in which remnant species may survive must take into account the possible influence of historical effects.

  20. Motional frequency shifts of trapped ions in the Lamb-Dicke regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lizuain, I.; Muga, J. G.; Eschner, J.

    2007-01-01

    First order Doppler effects are usually ignored in laser driven trapped ions when the recoil frequency is much smaller than the trapping frequency (Lamb-Dicke regime). This means that the central, carrier excitation band is supposed to be unaffected by vibronic transitions in which the vibrational number changes. While this is strictly true in the Lamb-Dicke limit (infinitely tight confinement), the vibronic transitions do play a role in the Lamb-Dicke regime. In this paper we quantify the asymptotic behavior of their effect with respect to the Lamb-Dicke parameter. In particular, we give analytical expressions for the frequency shift, 'pulling' or 'pushing', produced in the carrier absorption band by the vibronic transitions both for Rabi and Ramsey schemes. This shift is shown to be independent of the initial vibrational state

  1. An algorithm for engineering regime shifts in one-dimensional dynamical systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, James P. L.

    2018-01-01

    Regime shifts are discontinuous transitions between stable attractors hosting a system. They can occur as a result of a loss of stability in an attractor as a bifurcation is approached. In this work, we consider one-dimensional dynamical systems where attractors are stable equilibrium points. Relying on critical slowing down signals related to the stability of an equilibrium point, we present an algorithm for engineering regime shifts such that a system may escape an undesirable attractor into a desirable one. We test the algorithm on synthetic data from a one-dimensional dynamical system with a multitude of stable equilibrium points and also on a model of the population dynamics of spruce budworms in a forest. The algorithm and other ideas discussed here contribute to an important part of the literature on exercising greater control over the sometimes unpredictable nature of nonlinear systems.

  2. Impacts of extensive driftnet fishery and late 1990s climate regime shift on dominant epipelagic nekton in the Transition Region and Subtropical Frontal Zone: Implications for fishery management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichii, T.; Nishikawa, H.; Igarashi, H.; Okamura, H.; Mahapatra, K.; Sakai, M.; Wakabayashi, T.; Inagake, D.; Okada, Y.

    2017-01-01

    We investigated the impacts of extensive anthropogenic (high seas driftnet squid fishery) and natural (late 1990s major climate regime shift) events on dominant epipelagic fish, squid, and shark in the central North Pacific Transition Region based on a driftnet survey covering the years 1979-2006. Fishing was conducted by Japan, Korea and Taiwan to target neon flying squid in the period 1979-1992, resulting in a decline in stocks of the target species and non-target species (Pacific pomfret and juvenile blue shark), which were by-catch of this fishery. The catch was found to be at the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) level for neon flying squid, the underfished level for juvenile blue shark, but the overfished level for Pacific pomfret. The MSY of Pacific pomfret indicated that this species is more susceptible to exploitation than previously considered. In response to the late 1990s regime shift, neon flying squid and Pacific saury showed low stock levels in 1999-2002 and 1998-2002, respectively, as a result of reduced productivity in their nursery grounds (the Subtropical Frontal Zone and Kuroshio Extension Bifurcation Region, respectively). On the other hand, Pacific pomfret showed no decreasing trend in stock during the low- and intermediate-productivity regimes because of the high productivity of their main spawning/nursery ground (Transition Zone Chlorophyll Front), which was independent of the regime shifts. Thus, squid and saury appear to be more susceptible to the regime shift than pomfret. We discuss the implications for stock management of the species-specific responses to the fishery and the regime shift.

  3. Covariance between Arctic sea ice and clouds within atmospheric state regimes at the satellite footprint level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Patrick C; Kato, Seiji; Xu, Kuan-Man; Cai, Ming

    2015-12-27

    Understanding the cloud response to sea ice change is necessary for modeling Arctic climate. Previous work has primarily addressed this problem from the interannual variability perspective. This paper provides a refined perspective of sea ice-cloud relationship in the Arctic using a satellite footprint-level quantification of the covariance between sea ice and Arctic low cloud properties from NASA A-Train active remote sensing data. The covariances between Arctic low cloud properties and sea ice concentration are quantified by first partitioning each footprint into four atmospheric regimes defined using thresholds of lower tropospheric stability and midtropospheric vertical velocity. Significant regional variability in the cloud properties is found within the atmospheric regimes indicating that the regimes do not completely account for the influence of meteorology. Regional anomalies are used to account for the remaining meteorological influence on clouds. After accounting for meteorological regime and regional influences, a statistically significant but weak covariance between cloud properties and sea ice is found in each season for at least one atmospheric regime. Smaller average cloud fraction and liquid water are found within footprints with more sea ice. The largest-magnitude cloud-sea ice covariance occurs between 500 m and 1.2 km when the lower tropospheric stability is between 16 and 24 K. The covariance between low cloud properties and sea ice is found to be largest in fall and is accompanied by significant changes in boundary layer temperature structure where larger average near-surface static stability is found at larger sea ice concentrations.

  4. Covariance Between Arctic Sea Ice and Clouds Within Atmospheric State Regimes at the Satellite Footprint Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Patrick C.; Kato, Seiji; Xu, Kuan-Man; Cai, Ming

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the cloud response to sea ice change is necessary for modeling Arctic climate. Previous work has primarily addressed this problem from the interannual variability perspective. This paper provides a refined perspective of sea ice-cloud relationship in the Arctic using a satellite footprint-level quantification of the covariance between sea ice and Arctic low cloud properties from NASA A-Train active remote sensing data. The covariances between Arctic low cloud properties and sea ice concentration are quantified by first partitioning each footprint into four atmospheric regimes defined using thresholds of lower tropospheric stability and mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Significant regional variability in the cloud properties is found within the atmospheric regimes indicating that the regimes do not completely account for the influence of meteorology. Regional anomalies are used to account for the remaining meteorological influence on clouds. After accounting for meteorological regime and regional influences, a statistically significant but weak covariance between cloud properties and sea ice is found in each season for at least one atmospheric regime. Smaller average cloud fraction and liquid water are found within footprints with more sea ice. The largest-magnitude cloud-sea ice covariance occurs between 500m and 1.2 km when the lower tropospheric stability is between 16 and 24 K. The covariance between low cloud properties and sea ice is found to be largest in fall and is accompanied by significant changes in boundary layer temperature structure where larger average near-surface static stability is found at larger sea ice concentrations.

  5. Hysteresis, regime shifts, and non-stationarity in aquifer recharge-storage-discharge systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klammler, Harald; Jawitz, James; Annable, Michael; Hatfield, Kirk; Rao, Suresh

    2016-04-01

    Based on physical principles and geological information we develop a parsimonious aquifer model for Silver Springs, one of the largest karst springs in Florida. The model structure is linear and time-invariant with recharge, aquifer head (storage) and spring discharge as dynamic variables at the springshed (landscape) scale. Aquifer recharge is the hydrological driver with trends over a range of time scales from seasonal to multi-decadal. The freshwater-saltwater interaction is considered as a dynamic storage mechanism. Model results and observed time series show that aquifer storage causes significant rate-dependent hysteretic behavior between aquifer recharge and discharge. This leads to variable discharge per unit recharge over time scales up to decades, which may be interpreted as a gradual and cyclic regime shift in the aquifer drainage behavior. Based on field observations, we further amend the aquifer model by assuming vegetation growth in the spring run to be inversely proportional to stream velocity and to hinder stream flow. This simple modification introduces non-linearity into the dynamic system, for which we investigate the occurrence of rate-independent hysteresis and of different possible steady states with respective regime shifts between them. Results may contribute towards explaining observed non-stationary behavior potentially due to hydrological regime shifts (e.g., triggered by gradual, long-term changes in recharge or single extreme events) or long-term hysteresis (e.g., caused by aquifer storage). This improved understanding of the springshed hydrologic response dynamics is fundamental for managing the ecological, economic and social aspects at the landscape scale.

  6. Regime shifts under forcing of non-stationary attractors: Conceptual model and case studies in hydrologic systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jeryang; Rao, P Suresh C

    2014-11-15

    We present here a conceptual model and analysis of complex systems using hypothetical cases of regime shifts resulting from temporal non-stationarity in attractor strengths, and then present selected published cases to illustrate such regime shifts in hydrologic systems (shallow aquatic ecosystems; water table shifts; soil salinization). Complex systems are dynamic and can exist in two or more stable states (or regimes). Temporal variations in state variables occur in response to fluctuations in external forcing, which are modulated by interactions among internal processes. Combined effects of external forcing and non-stationary strengths of alternative attractors can lead to shifts from original to alternate regimes. In systems with bi-stable states, when the strengths of two competing attractors are constant in time, or are non-stationary but change in a linear fashion, regime shifts are found to be temporally stationary and only controlled by the characteristics of the external forcing. However, when attractor strengths change in time non-linearly or vary stochastically, regime shifts in complex systems are characterized by non-stationary probability density functions (pdfs). We briefly discuss implications and challenges to prediction and management of hydrologic complex systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. The effects of freshwater inflow, inlet conveyance and sea level rise on the salinity regime in the Loxahatchee Estuary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, G.

    2002-01-01

    The upstream migration of salt water into the historic freshwater reaches of the Loxahatchee River is the likely cause of the altered floodplain cypress forest community along the Northwest Fork and some of its tributaries. Mangroves are replacing cypress forest and areas of mixed swamp hardwoods have reacted to different degrees to the saltwater stress. A hydrodynamic/salinity model was developed to study the influence of freshwater input, tidal inlet deepening and sea level rise on the salinity regime in the estuary. Field data analysis and model simulations indicate that the salinity condition in the estuary is sensitive to the amount of freshwater input from the watershed. During dry seasons the salt front advances into areas that were historically freshwater habitats. Historic evidence indicates that the Loxahatchee estuary was periodically closed and opened to the sea. Due to the active long shore sediment transport, the tidal inlet was probably characterized by shifting sandbars through which ran a narrow and unstable channel. Inlet dredging in the past several decades has increased the hydraulic conveyance of the inlet and the tidal influence into the estuary. The sea level record from a site in south Florida indicates that the sea level has been rising at a rate of approximately 2.3-mm per year. The rise of sea level in the past century has probably raised the mean tide level by about 23 centimeters. If the sea level rise continues as predicted, it is foreseeable that the salt front will move further upstream along with the sea level rise. Field data analysis and the preliminary model output led us to believe that the advance of seawater up the estuary is the combined effect of watershed hydrological changes, inlet deepening and sea level rise. (author)

  8. Pre-"peak water" time in the southwest Yukon: when cryospheric changes trigger hydrological regime shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baraer, M.; Chesnokova, A.; Huh, K. I.; Laperriere-Robillard, T.

    2017-12-01

    Saint-Elias Mountains host numerous cryospheric systems such as glaciers, seasonal and perennial snow cover, permafrost, aufeis, and different forms of buried ice. Those systems are very sensitive to climate changes and exhibit ongoing reduction in extent and/or changes in formation/ablation times. Because they highly influence the hydrological regimes of rivers, cryospheric changes raise concerns about consequences for regional water resources and ecosystems. The present study combines historical data analysis and hydrological modeling in order to estimate how cryospheric changes impact hydrological regimes at eight watersheds of different glacier cover (0- 30%) in the southwest Yukon. Methods combine traditional hydrograph analysis techniques and more advance techniques such as Fast Fourier Transform filters used to isolate significant trends in discharge properties from noise or climatic oscillations. Measured trends in discharge variables are connected to cryospheric changes by using a water balance / peak water model (Baraer et al., 2012), here adapted to the main cryospheric systems that characterize the southwest Yukon.Results show three distinct hydrological regimes for (1) non glacierized, (2) glacierized, and (3) major lakes hosting catchments. The studied glacierized catchments have not passed the "peak water" yet and still exhibit increases in yearly and late summer discharges and a decrease in runoff variability. All watersheds show an increase in winter discharge and a snowmelt-driven shift of yearly peak discharge toward earlier in the season. The study suggests that, in a couple of decades, water resources and dependent ecosystems will face the combined effects of (A) a shift in the contribution trend from declining perennial cryospheric systems and (B) continuing alteration of the contribution from the seasonal cryospheric systems.

  9. Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gennaretti, Fabio; Arseneault, Dominique; Nicault, Antoine; Perreault, Luc; Bégin, Yves

    2014-07-15

    Dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada recently suggested that a succession of strong volcanic eruptions forced an abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age between A.D. 1275 and 1300 [Miller GH, et al. (2012) Geophys Res Lett 39(2):L02708, 10.1029/2011GL050168]. Although this idea is supported by simulation experiments with general circulation models, additional support from field data are limited. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere network of temperature-sensitive millennial tree-ring chronologies, which principally comprises Eurasian sites, suggests that the strongest eruptions only caused cooling episodes lasting less than about 10 y. Here we present a new network of millennial tree-ring chronologies from the taiga of northeastern North America, which fills a wide gap in the network of the Northern Hemisphere's chronologies suitable for temperature reconstructions and supports the hypothesis that volcanoes triggered both the onset and the coldest episode of the Little Ice Age. Following the well-expressed Medieval Climate Anomaly (approximately A.D. 910-1257), which comprised the warmest decades of the last millennium, our tree-ring-based temperature reconstruction displays an abrupt regime shift toward lower average summer temperatures precisely coinciding with a series of 13th century eruptions centered around the 1257 Samalas event and closely preceding ice-cap expansion in Arctic Canada. Furthermore, the successive 1809 (unknown volcano) and 1815 (Tambora) eruptions triggered a subsequent shift to the coldest 40-y period of the last 1100 y. These results confirm that series of large eruptions may cause region-specific regime shifts in the climate system and that the climate of northeastern North America is especially sensitive to volcanic forcing.

  10. Benthic-planktonic coupling, regime shifts, and whole-lake primary production in shallow lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genkai-Kato, Motomi; Vadeboncoeur, Yvonne; Liboriussen, Lone; Jeppesen, Erik

    2012-03-01

    Alternative stable states in shallow lakes are typically characterized by submerged macrophyte (clear-water state) or phytoplankton (turbid state) dominance. However, a clear-water state may occur in eutrophic lakes even when macrophytes are absent. To test whether sediment algae could cause a regime shift in the absence of macrophytes, we developed a model of benthic (periphyton) and planktonic (phytoplankton) primary production using parameters derived from a shallow macrophyte-free lake that shifted from a turbid to a clear-water state following fish removal (biomanipulation). The model includes a negative feedback effect of periphyton on phosphorus (P) release from sediments. This in turn induces a positive feedback between phytoplankton production and P release. Scenarios incorporating a gradient of external P loading rates revealed that (1) periphyton and phytoplankton both contributed substantially to whole-lake production over a broad range of external P loading in a clear-water state; (2) during the clear-water state, the loss of benthic production was gradually replaced by phytoplankton production, leaving whole-lake production largely unchanged; (3) the responses of lakes to biomanipulation and increased external P loading were both dependent on lake morphometry; and (4) the capacity of periphyton to buffer the effects of increased external P loading and maintain a clear-water state was highly sensitive to relationships between light availability at the sediment surface and the of P release. Our model suggests a mechanism for the persistence of alternative states in shallow macrophyte-free lakes and demonstrates that regime shifts may trigger profound changes in ecosystem structure and function.

  11. Moderate drop in water table increases peatland vulnerability to post-fire regime shift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettridge, N; Turetsky, M R; Sherwood, J H; Thompson, D K; Miller, C A; Benscoter, B W; Flannigan, M D; Wotton, B M; Waddington, J M

    2015-01-27

    Northern and tropical peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reserve accumulated over thousands of years of waterlogged conditions. It is unclear whether moderate drying predicted for northern peatlands will stimulate burning and carbon losses as has occurred in their smaller tropical counterparts where the carbon legacy has been destabilized due to severe drainage and deep peat fires. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland subjected to decadal drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire converted the low productivity, moss-dominated peatland to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy of stored peat carbon.

  12. Probe-controlled soliton frequency shift in the regime of optical event horizon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Jie; Guo, Hairun; Wang, Shaofei; Zeng, Xianglong

    2015-08-24

    In optical analogy of the event horizon, temporal pulse collision and mutual interactions are mainly between an intense solitary wave (soliton) and a dispersive probe wave. In such a regime, here we numerically investigate the probe-controlled soliton frequency shift as well as the soliton self-compression. In particular, in the dispersion landscape with multiple zero dispersion wavelengths, bi-directional soliton spectral tunneling effects is possible. Moreover, we propose a mid-infrared soliton self-compression to the generation of few-cycle ultrashort pulses, in a bulk of quadratic nonlinear crystals in contrast to optical fibers or cubic nonlinear media, which could contribute to the community with a simple and flexible method to experimental implementations.

  13. Beyond the fragmentation threshold hypothesis: regime shifts in biodiversity across fragmented landscapes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Pardini

    Full Text Available Ecological systems are vulnerable to irreversible change when key system properties are pushed over thresholds, resulting in the loss of resilience and the precipitation of a regime shift. Perhaps the most important of such properties in human-modified landscapes is the total amount of remnant native vegetation. In a seminal study Andrén proposed the existence of a fragmentation threshold in the total amount of remnant vegetation, below which landscape-scale connectivity is eroded and local species richness and abundance become dependent on patch size. Despite the fact that species patch-area effects have been a mainstay of conservation science there has yet to be a robust empirical evaluation of this hypothesis. Here we present and test a new conceptual model describing the mechanisms and consequences of biodiversity change in fragmented landscapes, identifying the fragmentation threshold as a first step in a positive feedback mechanism that has the capacity to impair ecological resilience, and drive a regime shift in biodiversity. The model considers that local extinction risk is defined by patch size, and immigration rates by landscape vegetation cover, and that the recovery from local species losses depends upon the landscape species pool. Using a unique dataset on the distribution of non-volant small mammals across replicate landscapes in the Atlantic forest of Brazil, we found strong evidence for our model predictions--that patch-area effects are evident only at intermediate levels of total forest cover, where landscape diversity is still high and opportunities for enhancing biodiversity through local management are greatest. Furthermore, high levels of forest loss can push native biota through an extinction filter, and result in the abrupt, landscape-wide loss of forest-specialist taxa, ecological resilience and management effectiveness. The proposed model links hitherto distinct theoretical approaches within a single framework

  14. Hydrological regime shift in a constructed catchment: Effect of vegetation encroachment on surface runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinz, C.; Caviedes-Voullieme, D.; Andezhath Mohanan, A.; Brueck, Y.; Zaplata, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Hühnerwasser catchment (Chicken Creek) was constructed to provide discharge for a small stream in the post-mining landscape of Lusatia, Germany. It has an area of 6 ha and quaternary sands with a thickness of 2-4 m were dumped on to a clay liner to prevent deep drainage. After completion of the construction the catchment was left to develop on its own without intervention and has been monitored since 2005. The upper part of the catchment discharges water and sediment into the lower part forming an alluvial fan. Below the alluvial fan is a pond receiving all surface and subsurface water from the upper catchment. After the formation of the drainage network vegetation started growing and surface runoff decreased until the water balance was dominated by evapotranspiration. This regime shift and the rate at which it happened depends on the vegetation encroachment into the rills and the interrill areas. Based on the hypothesis that vegetation will increase surface roughness and infiltration behavior, aerial photos were used to map rills and vegetation within and outside the rills for the last 10 years to obtain a time series of change. Observational evidence clearly shows that vegetation encroaches from the bottom, from the interrill areas as well as from the top. The rills themselves did not change their topology, however, the width of the erosion rills and gully increased at the bottom. For a subcatchment area a high resolution a physical based numerical model of overland flow was developed to explicitly assess the importance of increasing roughness and infiltration capacity for surface runoff. For the purpose of analyzing the effect of rainfall variability a rainfall generator was developed to carry out large sets of simulations. The simulations provide a means to assess how the roughness/infiltration feedback affects the rate of regime shift for a set of parameters that are consistent with the observed hydrological behavior of the drainage network.

  15. Climate and vegetational regime shifts in the late Paleozoic ice age earth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiMichele, W A; Montañez, I P; Poulsen, C J; Tabor, N J

    2009-03-01

    The late Paleozoic earth experienced alternation between glacial and non-glacial climates at multiple temporal scales, accompanied by atmospheric CO2 fluctuations and global warming intervals, often attended by significant vegetational changes in equatorial latitudes of Pangaea. We assess the nature of climate-vegetation interaction during two time intervals: middle-late Pennsylvanian transition and Pennsylvanian-Permian transition, each marked by tropical warming and drying. In case study 1, there is a catastrophic intra-biomic reorganization of dominance and diversity in wetland, evergreen vegetation growing under humid climates. This represents a threshold-type change, possibly a regime shift to an alternative stable state. Case study 2 is an inter-biome dominance change in western and central Pangaea from humid wetland and seasonally dry to semi-arid vegetation. Shifts between these vegetation types had been occurring in Euramerican portions of the equatorial region throughout the late middle and late Pennsylvanian, the drier vegetation reaching persistent dominance by Early Permian. The oscillatory transition between humid and seasonally dry vegetation appears to demonstrate a threshold-like behavior but probably not repeated transitions between alternative stable states. Rather, changes in dominance in lowland equatorial regions were driven by long-term, repetitive climatic oscillations, occurring with increasing intensity, within overall shift to seasonal dryness through time. In neither case study are there clear biotic or abiotic warning signs of looming changes in vegetational composition or geographic distribution, nor is it clear that there are specific, absolute values or rates of environmental change in temperature, rainfall distribution and amount, or atmospheric composition, approach to which might indicate proximity to a terrestrial biotic-change threshold.

  16. Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Marwan, N.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2015-05-01

    The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

  17. Property rights, institutional regime shifts and the provision of freshwater ecosystem services on the Pongola River floodplain, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bimo Abraham Nkhata

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a property rights perspective to interpret institutional regime shifts in the provision of freshwater ecosystem services. Institutional regime shifts are conceived as persistent changes in the structure and function of a system. Property rights are viewed as an important component of institutional regimes. The paper draws on a case study of flow regulation on the Pongolo Floodplain in South Africa to illustrate the central role of property rights in mediating institutional regime shifts. The case study illustrates that there are many combinations of property rights that underpin institutional regime shifts in the provision of freshwater ecosystem services. It provides useful insights into the consequences of failing to recognize, establish and enforce bundles of rights. A major thrust of the case study is that the nature and context of property rights are important in determining the long-term provision of these services. By examining the configurations of property rights that have governed the Pongola River floodplain over the years, the paper demonstrates the importance of explicitly defining and categorizing the range of rights.

  18. Regime shift by an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub mediates plant facilitation in primary succession.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriano Stinca

    Full Text Available Ecosystem invasion by non-native, nitrogen-fixing species is a global phenomenon with serious ecological consequences. However, in the Mediterranean basin few studies addressed the impact of invasion by nitrogen-fixing shrubs on soil quality and hydrological properties at local scale, and the possible effects on succession dynamics and ecosystem invasibility by further species. In this multidisciplinary study we investigated the impact of Genista aetnensis (Biv. DC., an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub, on the Vesuvius Grand Cone (Southern Italy. Specifically, we tested the hypotheses that the invasion of G. aetnensis has a significant impact on soil quality, soil hydrological regime, local microclimate and plant community structure, and that its impact increases during the plant ontogenetic cycle. We showed that G. aetnensis, in a relatively short time-span (i.e. ~ 40 years, has been able to build-up an island of fertility under its canopy, by accumulating considerable stocks of C, N, and P in the soil, and by also improving the soil hydrological properties. Moreover, G. aetnensis mitigates the daily range of soil temperature, reducing the exposure of coexisting plants to extremely high temperatures and water loss by soil evaporation, particularly during the growing season. Such amelioration of soil quality, coupled with the mitigation of below-canopy microclimatic conditions, has enhanced plant colonization of the barren Grand Cone slopes, by both herbaceous and woody species. These results suggest that the invasion of G. aetnensis could eventually drive to the spread of other, more resource-demanding exotic species, promoting alternative successional trajectories that may dramatically affect the local landscape. Our study is the first record of the invasion of G. aetnensis, an additional example of the regime shifts driven by N-fixing shrubs in Mediterranean region. Further studies are needed to identity specific management practices that can

  19. Transport interests and environmental regimes. The Baltic Sea transit of Russian oil exports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knudsen, Olav F.

    2010-01-01

    In the environmentally exposed Baltic Sea, a prolonged confrontation has set the transport interests of Russian crude oil against environmental interests, promoted by Russia's neighbours. During the 1990s all the Baltic littoral states - including Russia - collaborated well on marine environmental issues. When Russian oil exports accelerated after 1999, this environmental understanding broke down. Russian interests shifted as its oil income suddenly rose drastically. The confrontation peaked over a proposal to make the entire Baltic Sea into a particularly sensitive sea area (PSSA) under the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The proposal was adopted by the IMO in spite of Russian objections. The article shows how environmental interests trump transport interests in a manner that may not be sustainable. The case illustrates the need for environmental collaboration to be flexible in the face of shifting constellations of competing interests. (author)

  20. How do copper contamination pulses shape the regime shifts of phytoplankton-zooplankton dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camara, B. I.; Yamapi, R.; Mokrani, H.

    2017-07-01

    The presence of pollutants in waters, particularly from heavy metals, is of grave concern worldwide due to its cytotoxicity to organisms. Fish and aquatic organisms are very sensitive to the increasing Cu concentrations in water. Therefore, Cu toxicity partly depends on water quality. To address the effects of impulsive copper contamination of the phytoplankton-zooplankton population dynamics, we've built a model that focuses on the interaction between algae and Daphnia with deterministic and stochastic impulse copper. In fact the Results have shown three types of outcomes depending on copper concentration. In low (4.4 μgL-1) copper concentration, deterministic and stochastic pulses may promote the persistence of Daphnia and algae populations unlike the absence of pulses. Whereas, in high (28 μgL-1) concentration, it accelerates deficiency and toxicity processes, leads to the extinction of all populations and in intermediate concentrations. Deterministic and stochastic pulses may transform population dynamics in complex oscillations. Numerical results show that the system that has been considered has more complex dynamics including bifurcation, period-doubling oscillations and chaos. Depending on minimum copper concentration in the environment, the bifurcation diagram has highlighted the resilience or the regime shifts of the system in occurrence of pulse contamination.

  1. The 3000-4000 cal. BP anthropogenic shift in fire regime in the French Pyrenees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rius, D.; Vannière, B.; Galop, D.; Richard, H.

    2009-04-01

    Fire is a key disturbing agent in a wide range of ecosystems: boreal biome (Pitkanen, 2000), Mediterranean area (Colombaroli et al., 2008) as well as temperate European mountain zones (Tinner et al., 1999). During the Holocene, climate may control fire regime by both ignition and fire spread-favouring conditions (i.e. composition, structure and moisture of biomass) whereas man may change charcoal accumulation patterns through type and intensity of agro-pastoral activities. In western and Mediterranean Europe, single sites charcoal analysis recorded the anthropogenic forcing over fire regime broadly between the mid and the late-Holocene. Turner et al (2008) showed that climate and fire had been disconnected since 1700 cal. BP in Turkey. In central Swiss, Mean Fire Interval decreased by two times 2000 years ago due to increasing human impact (Stahli et al., 2006). In Italy, climate and man have had a combined influence on fire-hazard since ca 4000 cal. BP (Vannière et al., 2008). In the Pyrenees Mountains, the linkage between agro-pastoral practices and fire could be dated back to ca 4000-3000 cal. BP with a clear succession of a clearance phase (high fire frequency) followed by a quite linear trend throughout Middle Ages and Modern times corresponding to a change in fire use (Vanniere et al., 2001; Galop et al., 2002, Rius et al., in press). The quantification of fire regimes parameters such as frequency with robust methodological tools (Inferred Fire Frequency, Mean Fire Interval) is needed to understand and characterise such shifts. Here we present two sequences from the Lourdes basin (col d'Ech peat bog) and from the occidental Pyrenees (Gabarn peat bog), which cover the last 9000 years with high temporal resolution. The main goals of this study were to (1) assess control factors of fire regime throughout the lateglacial and Holocene (climate and/or man) on the local scale, (2) evidence the local/regional significance of these control factors , (3) discuss the

  2. Integrated ecological and chemical food web accumulation modeling explains PAH temporal trends during regime shifts in a shallow lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Wei; Qin, Ning; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Bin; Yang, Chen; Xu, Fuliu; Mooij, Wolf M; Koelmans, Albert A

    2017-08-01

    Shallow lakes can switch suddenly from a turbid situation with high concentrations of phytoplankton and other suspended solids to a vegetated state with clear water, and vice versa. These alternative stable states may have a substantial impact on the fate of hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs). Models that are fit to simulate impacts from these complex interactions are scarce. We developed a contaminant fate model which is linked to an ecosystem model (PCLake) for shallow lakes. This integrated model was successful in simulating long-term dynamics (1953-2012) of representative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the main biotic and abiotic components in a large shallow lake (Chaohu in China), which has undergone regime shifts in this period. Historical records from sediment cores were used to evaluate the model. The model revealed that regime shifts in shallow lakes had a strong impact on the fate of less hydrophobic compounds due to the large storage capacity of macrophytes, which accumulated up to 55.6% of phenanthrene in the clear state. The abrupt disappearance of macrophytes after the regime shift resulted in a sudden change in phenanthrene distribution, as the sediment became the major sink. For more hydrophobic compounds such as benzo(a)pyrene, the modeled impact of the regime shift was negligible for the whole environment, yet large for biotic compartments. This study is the first to provide a full mechanistic analysis of the impact of regime shifts on the fate of PAHs in a real lake ecosystem. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Regimes of seasonal air-sea interaction and implications for performance of forced simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Renguang [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Kirtman, Ben P. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, School of Computational Sciences, Fairfax, VA (United States)

    2007-09-15

    Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies can induce anomalous convection through surface evaporation and low-level moisture convergence. This SST forcing of the atmosphere is indicated in a positive local rainfall-SST correlation. Anomalous convection can feedback on SST through cloud-radiation and wind-evaporation effects and wind-induced oceanic mixing and upwelling. These atmospheric feedbacks are reflected in a negative local rainfall-SST tendency correlation. As such, the simultaneous rainfall-SST and rainfall-SST tendency correlations can indicate the nature of local air-sea interactions. Based on the magnitude of simultaneous rainfall-SST and rainfall-SST tendency correlations, the present study identifies three distinct regimes of local air-sea interactions. The relative importance of SST forcing and atmospheric forcing differs in these regimes. In the equatorial central-eastern Pacific and, to a smaller degree, in the western equatorial Indian Ocean, SST forcing dominates throughout the year and the surface heat flux acts mainly as a damping term. In the tropical Indo-western Pacific Ocean regions, SST forcing and atmospheric forcing dominate alternatively in different seasons. Atmospheric forcing dominates in the local warm/rainy season. SST forcing dominates with a positive wind-evaporation feedback during the transition to the cold/dry season. SST forcing also dominates during the transition to the warm/rainy season but with a negative cloud-radiation feedback. The performance of atmospheric general circulation model simulations forced by observed SST is closely linked to the regime of air-sea interaction. The forced simulations have good performance when SST forcing dominates. The performance is low or poor when atmospheric forcing dominates. (orig.)

  4. Mixing regime of the residual water basins of the Aral Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izhitskiy, Alexander; Zavialov, Peter; Kirillin, Georgiy

    2017-04-01

    The Aral Sea, a terminal salt lake in western Central Asia situated at the border between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, was ranked as the fourth largest inland water body in the mid-20th century. However, in the early 1960s, the lake's volume started to decrease rapidly due to severe changes in the Aral's water balance. Thus, the present-day Aral Sea can be considered as a system of separate water bodies with a common origin but very different physical, chemical and biological features. Our previous studies showed that the Large Aral Sea and Lake Tshchebas transformed into hyperhaline water bodies, while the Small Aral Sea was a brackish basin with rather similar to the pre-desiccation environment. On the other hand, the Small Aral Sea and Lake Tshchebas exhibited a mixed vertical structure, whereas the Western Large Aral Sea (especially the Chernyshev Bay) was strongly stratified. The presented study is focused on the seasonal mixing regimes of the residual basins. Isolation of deep waters from the atmosphere together with low rates of photosynthesis produce deep anoxia observed in the Chernyshev Bay and in the Large Aral. The high amount of organic matter provides a rich source of nutrients for anoxic microorganisms favoring methanogenesis in the bottom layer of the basins. In the Small Aral, the water column remains well-oxygenated down to the bottom throughout most of the year and development of anoxia is unlikely. The mixing regimes of the recently formed residual lakes of the former Aral Sea will provide manifold effect on the ongoing development of the aquatic system in the following decades. The study is based on a field data collected during two surveys of Shirshov Institute of Oceanology to the Aral Sea, which took place in October, 2015 and June, 2016. In situ measurements including CTD profiling and water sampling were carried out in the northern extremity of the western Large Aral (the Chernyshev Bay), in Lake Tshchebas, and in the Small Aral Sea

  5. Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Grant P

    2012-07-01

    Given the widespread and often dramatic influence of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is increasingly common for abrupt threshold changes to occur, yet explicitly testing for climate and ecological regime shifts is lacking in climatically sensitive upper treeline ecotones. In this study, quantitative evidence based on empirical data is provided to support the key role of extrinsic, climate-induced thresholds in governing the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment in these high-elevation environments. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct a 420-year history of regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones along a latitudinal gradient (approximately 44-35 degrees N) in the Rocky Mountains. Correlation analysis was used to assess the possible influence of minimum and maximum temperature indices and cool-season (November-April) precipitation on regional age-structure data. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect thresholds in tree establishment during the entire period of record (1580-2000), temperature variables significantly Correlated with establishment during the 20th century, and cool-season precipitation. Tree establishment was significantly correlated with minimum temperature during the spring (March-May) and cool season. Regime-shift analysis identified an abrupt increase in regional tree establishment in 1950 (1950-1954 age class). Coincident with this period was a shift toward reduced cool-season precipitation. The alignment of these climate conditions apparently triggered an abrupt increase in establishment that was unprecedented during the period of record. Two main findings emerge from this research that underscore the critical role of climate in governing regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones. (1) Regional climate variability is capable of exceeding bioclimatic thresholds, thereby initiating synchronous and abrupt changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment at broad

  6. Ecological Regime Shifts in Lake Kälksjön, Sweden, in Response to Abrupt Climate Change Around the 8.2 ka Cooling Event

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Randsalu-Wendrup, L.; Conley, D.J.; Snowball, I.

    2012-01-01

    . This study demonstrates that it is possible to detect, quantify and test for regime shifts in paleoecological data, and it highlights the need for high sampling resolution and precise chronological control. High-resolution paleoecological reconstructions of ecological regime shifts in response to climate...

  7. Regime shift from phytoplankton to macrophyte dominance in a large river: Top-down versus bottom-up effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibanez, Carles, E-mail: carles.ibanez@irta.cat [IRTA Aquatic Ecosystems, Carretera Poble Nou, Km 5.5, 43540 St. Carles de la Rapita, Catalonia (Spain); Alcaraz, Carles; Caiola, Nuno; Rovira, Albert; Trobajo, Rosa [IRTA Aquatic Ecosystems, Carretera Poble Nou, Km 5.5, 43540 St. Carles de la Rapita, Catalonia (Spain); Alonso, Miguel [United Research Services S.L., Urgell 143, 08036 Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Duran, Concha [Confederacion Hidrografica del Ebro, Sagasta 24-26, 50071 Zaragoza, Aragon (Spain); Jimenez, Pere J. [Grup Natura Freixe, Major 56, 43750 Flix, Catalonia (Spain); Munne, Antoni [Agencia Catalana de l' Aigua, Provenca 204-208, 08036 Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Prat, Narcis [Departament d' Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Diagonal 645, 08028 Barcelona Catalonia (Spain)

    2012-02-01

    The lower Ebro River (Catalonia, Spain) has recently undergone a regime shift from a phytoplankton-dominated to a macrophyte-dominated system. This shift is well known in shallow lakes but apparently it has never been documented in rivers. Two initial hypotheses to explain the collapse of the phytoplankton were considered: a) the diminution of nutrients (bottom-up); b) the filtering effect due to the colonization of the zebra mussel (top-down). Data on water quality, hydrology and biological communities (phytoplankton, macrophytes and zebra mussel) was obtained both from existing data sets and new surveys. Results clearly indicate that the decrease in phosphorus is the main cause of a dramatic decrease in chlorophyll and large increase in water transparency, triggering the subsequent colonization of macrophytes in the river bed. A Generalized Linear Model analysis showed that the decrease in dissolved phosphorus had a relative importance 14 times higher than the increase in zebra mussel density to explain the variation of total chlorophyll. We suggest that the described changes in the lower Ebro River can be considered a novel ecosystem shift. This shift is triggering remarkable changes in the biological communities beyond the decrease of phytoplankton and the proliferation of macrophytes, such as massive colonization of Simulidae (black fly) and other changes in the benthic invertebrate communities that are currently investigated. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We show a regime shift in a large river from phytoplankton to macrophyte dominance. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Two main hypotheses are considered: nutrient decrease and zebra mussel grazing. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Phosphorus depletion is found to be the main cause of the phytoplankton decline. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We conclude that oligotrophication triggered the colonization of macrophytes. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This new regime shift in a river is similar to that described

  8. Regime shift from phytoplankton to macrophyte dominance in a large river: Top-down versus bottom-up effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibáñez, Carles; Alcaraz, Carles; Caiola, Nuno; Rovira, Albert; Trobajo, Rosa; Alonso, Miguel; Duran, Concha; Jiménez, Pere J.; Munné, Antoni; Prat, Narcís

    2012-01-01

    The lower Ebro River (Catalonia, Spain) has recently undergone a regime shift from a phytoplankton-dominated to a macrophyte-dominated system. This shift is well known in shallow lakes but apparently it has never been documented in rivers. Two initial hypotheses to explain the collapse of the phytoplankton were considered: a) the diminution of nutrients (bottom-up); b) the filtering effect due to the colonization of the zebra mussel (top-down). Data on water quality, hydrology and biological communities (phytoplankton, macrophytes and zebra mussel) was obtained both from existing data sets and new surveys. Results clearly indicate that the decrease in phosphorus is the main cause of a dramatic decrease in chlorophyll and large increase in water transparency, triggering the subsequent colonization of macrophytes in the river bed. A Generalized Linear Model analysis showed that the decrease in dissolved phosphorus had a relative importance 14 times higher than the increase in zebra mussel density to explain the variation of total chlorophyll. We suggest that the described changes in the lower Ebro River can be considered a novel ecosystem shift. This shift is triggering remarkable changes in the biological communities beyond the decrease of phytoplankton and the proliferation of macrophytes, such as massive colonization of Simulidae (black fly) and other changes in the benthic invertebrate communities that are currently investigated. - Highlights: ► We show a regime shift in a large river from phytoplankton to macrophyte dominance. ► Two main hypotheses are considered: nutrient decrease and zebra mussel grazing. ► Phosphorus depletion is found to be the main cause of the phytoplankton decline. ► We conclude that oligotrophication triggered the colonization of macrophytes. ► This new regime shift in a river is similar to that described in shallow lakes.

  9. The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour A regime switching approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania [International Finance Group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia)

    2009-09-15

    In this paper we develop a two regime Markov-switching EGARCH model introduced by Henry [Henry, O., 2009. Regime switching in the relationship between equity returns and short-term interest rates. Journal of Banking and Finance 33, 405-414.] to examine the relationship between crude oil shocks and stock markets. An application to stock markets of UK, France and Japan over the sample period January 1989 to December 2007 illustrates plausible results. We detect two episodes of series behaviour one relative to low mean/high variance regime and the other to high mean/low variance regime. Furthermore, there is evidence that common recessions coincide with the low mean/high variance regime. In addition, we allow both real stock returns and probability of transitions from one regime to another to depend on the net oil price increase variable. The findings show that rises in oil price has a significant role in determining both the volatility of stock returns and the probability of transition across regimes. (author)

  10. The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour A regime switching approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we develop a two regime Markov-switching EGARCH model introduced by Henry [Henry, O., 2009. Regime switching in the relationship between equity returns and short-term interest rates. Journal of Banking and Finance 33, 405-414.] to examine the relationship between crude oil shocks and stock markets. An application to stock markets of UK, France and Japan over the sample period January 1989 to December 2007 illustrates plausible results. We detect two episodes of series behaviour one relative to low mean/high variance regime and the other to high mean/low variance regime. Furthermore, there is evidence that common recessions coincide with the low mean/high variance regime. In addition, we allow both real stock returns and probability of transitions from one regime to another to depend on the net oil price increase variable. The findings show that rises in oil price has a significant role in determining both the volatility of stock returns and the probability of transition across regimes. (author)

  11. Regime shifts in mean-variance efficient frontiers: some international evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Massimo Guidolin; Federica Ria

    2010-01-01

    Regime switching models have been assuming a central role in financial applications because of their well-known ability to capture the presence of rich non-linear patterns in the joint distribution of asset returns. This paper examines how the presence of regimes in means, variances, and correlations of asset returns translates into explicit dynamics of the Markowitz mean-variance frontier. In particular, the paper shows both theoretically and through an application to international equity po...

  12. Deciphering Equatorial Pacific Deep Sea Sediment Transport Regimes by Core-Log-Seismic Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, E.; Tominaga, M.; Marcantonio, F.

    2017-12-01

    Investigating deep-sea sediment transportation and deposition regimes is a key to accurately understand implications from geological information recorded by pelagic sediments, e.g. climate signals. However, except for physical oceanographic particle trap experiments, geochemical analyses of in situsediments, and theoretical modeling of the relation between the bottom currents and sediment particle flux, it has remained a challenging task to document the movement of deep sea sediments, that takes place over time. We utilized high-resolution, multichannel reflection seismic data from the eastern equatorial Pacific region with drilling and logging results from two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) sites, the Pacific Equatorial Age Transect (PEAT) 7 (Site U1337) and 8 (Site U1338), to characterize sediment transportation regimes on 18-24 Ma oceanic crust. Site U1337, constructed by a series of distinct abyssal hills and abyssal basins; Site U1338, located 570 km SE from Site U1337 site and constructed by a series of ridges, seamounts, and abyssal hills. These sites are of particular interest due to their proximity to the equatorial productivity zone, areas with high sedimentation rates and preservation of carbonate-bearing sediment that provide invaluable insights on equatorial Pacific ecosystems and carbon cycle. We integrate downhole geophysical logging data as well as geochemistry and physical properties measurements on recovered cores from IODP Sites U1337 and U1338 to comprehensively examine the mobility of deep-sea sediments and sediment diagenesis over times in a quasi-3D manner. We also examine 1100 km of high resolution underway seismic surveys from site survey lines in between PEAT 7 and 8 in order to investigate changes in sediment transportation between both sites. Integrating detailed seismic interpretations, high resolution core data, and 230Th flux measurements we aim to create a detailed chronological sedimentation and sediment diagenesis history

  13. Sector-based political analysis of energy transition: Green shift in the forest policy regime in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sergent, Arnaud

    2014-01-01

    This article examines energy transition political process from a sector-based approach, through the analysis of recent shift in the French forest policy regime. We demonstrate that, since 2007, energy transition policies have led to a harvesting turn within the French forest policy framework, meaning that priority is given to wood mobilisation, mainly for biomass uses. In addition, our findings suggest that the political authority wielded by the state over forest policy has shifted from forest administrative services to energy agencies and local authorities. Finally, we show that, although implementation of the harvesting turn is a cause of sectoral and inter-sectoral tensions, energy transition challenge also contributes to a process of (re)institutionalisation of mediation relationships among forestry stakeholders and wood-based industries representatives. The article concludes by arguing that sectors should retain relevant institutional frameworks for actors when choosing political arrangements required for implementing energy transition policy. - Highlights: • Implementing energy transition policy potentially challenges sector-based politics. • We propose a policy regime framework and socio-political investigations. • We analyse the political impact of energy transition policy on French forest sector. • Shifts occur in sectoral policy framework, authority, and mediation relationships

  14. Hydrological regulation drives regime shifts: evidence from paleolimnology and ecosystem modeling of a large shallow Chinese lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Qishuang; Yang, Bin; He, Wei; Xu, Fuliu; Janssen, Annette B G; Kuiper, Jan J; van Gerven, Luuk P A; Qin, Ning; Jiang, Yujiao; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Chen; Bai, Zelin; Zhang, Min; Kong, Fanxiang; Janse, Jan H; Mooij, Wolf M

    2017-02-01

    Quantitative evidence of sudden shifts in ecological structure and function in large shallow lakes is rare, even though they provide essential benefits to society. Such 'regime shifts' can be driven by human activities which degrade ecological stability including water level control (WLC) and nutrient loading. Interactions between WLC and nutrient loading on the long-term dynamics of shallow lake ecosystems are, however, often overlooked and largely underestimated, which has hampered the effectiveness of lake management. Here, we focus on a large shallow lake (Lake Chaohu) located in one of the most densely populated areas in China, the lower Yangtze River floodplain, which has undergone both WLC and increasing nutrient loading over the last several decades. We applied a novel methodology that combines consistent evidence from both paleolimnological records and ecosystem modeling to overcome the hurdle of data insufficiency and to unravel the drivers and underlying mechanisms in ecosystem dynamics. We identified the occurrence of two regime shifts: one in 1963, characterized by the abrupt disappearance of submerged vegetation, and another around 1980, with strong algal blooms being observed thereafter. Using model scenarios, we further disentangled the roles of WLC and nutrient loading, showing that the 1963 shift was predominantly triggered by WLC, whereas the shift ca. 1980 was attributed to aggravated nutrient loading. Our analysis also shows interactions between these two stressors. Compared to the dynamics driven by nutrient loading alone, WLC reduced the critical P loading and resulted in earlier disappearance of submerged vegetation and emergence of algal blooms by approximately 26 and 10 years, respectively. Overall, our study reveals the significant role of hydrological regulation in driving shallow lake ecosystem dynamics, and it highlights the urgency of using multi-objective management criteria that includes ecological sustainability perspectives when

  15. Precipitation Regime Shift Enhanced the Rain Pulse Effect on Soil Respiration in a Semi-Arid Steppe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Liming; Chen, Shiping; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi

    2014-01-01

    The effect of resource pulses, such as rainfall events, on soil respiration plays an important role in controlling grassland carbon balance, but how shifts in long-term precipitation regime regulate rain pulse effect on soil respiration is still unclear. We first quantified the influence of rainfall event on soil respiration based on a two-year (2006 and 2009) continuously measured soil respiration data set in a temperate steppe in northern China. In 2006 and 2009, soil carbon release induced by rainfall events contributed about 44.5% (83.3 g C m−2) and 39.6% (61.7 g C m−2) to the growing-season total soil respiration, respectively. The pulse effect of rainfall event on soil respiration can be accurately predicted by a water status index (WSI), which is the product of rainfall event size and the ratio between antecedent soil temperature to moisture at the depth of 10 cm (r 2 = 0.92, Psoil temperature/moisture ratio which is usually associated with longer dry spells. We then analyzed a long-term (1953–2009) precipitation record in the experimental area. We found both the extreme heavy rainfall events (>40 mm per event) and the long dry-spells (>5 days) during the growing seasons increased from 1953–2009. It suggests the shift in precipitation regime has increased the contribution of rain pulse effect to growing-season total soil respiration in this region. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating precipitation regime shift and its impacts on the rain pulse effect into the future predictions of grassland carbon cycle under climate change. PMID:25093573

  16. Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia

    OpenAIRE

    Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne de; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A.; Niklasson, Mats

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the nort...

  17. Signatures of global warming and regional climate shift in the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    PrasannaKumar, S.; Roshin, R.P.; Narvekar, J.; DineshKumar, P.K.; Vivekanandan, E.

    phytoplankton biomass during fall and winter is attributed to the iron-fertilization driven by enhanced dust-delivery under this regional climate shift. Finally, it is shown that the increased fish (oil-sardine) catch in the eastern and western Arabian Sea after...

  18. Bacterial use of choline to tolerate salinity shifts in sea-ice brines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Firth, E.; Carpenter, S. D.; Sørensen, H. L.

    2016-01-01

    Bacteria within the brine network of sea ice experience temperature-driven fluctuations in salinity on both short and long temporal scales, yet their means of osmoprotection against such fluctuations is poorly understood. One mechanism used to withstand the ion fluxes caused by salinity shifts, w...

  19. The study of the hydrological regime extreme effects of the Caspian Sea during the XX-XXI centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaitskaya, Natalia

    2016-04-01

    The Caspian Sea - the unique largest enclosed inland body of water on Earth. Significant periodic sea level fluctuations are a typical feature of the sea. In the XIX-XX centuries a number of comprehensive studies of the Caspian Sea was carried out. The results are published in the papers, monographs and climatic atlases. But a number of fundamental questions about the features of the hydrological regime of the Caspian Sea is still open: 1. How does the water circulation change during the level variations? 2. What is the effect of heterogeneity of evaporation from the water surface on the formation of the flow field in the conditions of long-term level changes? 3. How does the water salinity regime change depending on the sea level position, water circulation, river flow and different climatic influences? 4. What is the effect of extreme events (multi-hazards) (ice, storms, destruction of the coasts) on coastal infrastructure? In 2016, the project aims to study hydrological regime extreme effects of the Caspian Sea was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research. Within this project all of the above problems will be solved. Geographic information system "Caspian Sea" for the storage and data processing, including a database of primary oceanographic information for the period of instrumental observations (1897-2013), cartographic database (1921-2011) and tools for multidimensional analysis of spatio-temporal information is the basis of the study. The scheme of interconnected hydrodynamic models (Caspian Sea MODel - Ocean Model - Wind wave model) was developed. The important factors are taken into account in the structure of the models: long-term and seasonal dynamics of the sea waves parameters, new long-term values of evaporation from the shallow waters areas of the Caspian Sea, water circulation. Schemes of general seasonal circulation of the Caspian Sea and the Northern Caspian at different positions of the sea level in XX-XXI centuries using

  20. Regime shift in fertilizer commodities indicates more turbulence ahead for food security.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J Elser

    Full Text Available Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this "Green Revolution" has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum. Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007-2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication.

  1. Resilience of the Nexus of Competitive Water Consumption between Human Society and Environment Development: Regime Shifts and Early Warning Signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Z.; Liu, P.; Feng, M.; Zhang, J.

    2017-12-01

    Based on the modeling of the water supply, power generation and environment (WPE) nexus by Feng et al. (2016), a refined theoretical model of competitive water consumption between human society and environment has been presented in this study, examining the role of technology advancement and social environmental awareness growth-induced pollution mitigation to the environment as a mechanism for the establishment and maintenance of the coexistence of both higher social water consumption and improved environment condition. By coupling environmental and social dynamics, both of which are represented by water consumption quantity, this study shows the possibility of sustainable situation of the social-environmental system when the benefit of technology offsets the side effect (pollution) of social development to the environment. Additionally, regime shifts could be triggered by gradually increased pollution rate, climate change-induced natural resources reduction and breakdown of the social environmental awareness. Therefore, in order to foresee the pending abrupt regime shifts of the system, early warning signals, including increasing variance and autocorrelation, have been examined when the system is undergoing stochastic disturbance. ADDIN EN.REFLIST Feng, M. et al., 2016. Modeling the nexus across water supply, power generation and environment systems using the system dynamics approach: Hehuang Region, China. J. Hydrol., 543: 344-359.

  2. Regime shifts and ecological catastrophes in a model of plankton-oxygen dynamics under the climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrovskii, Sergei; Sekerci, Yadigar; Venturino, Ezio

    2017-07-07

    It is estimated that more than a half of the total atmospheric oxygen is produced in the oceans due to the photosynthetic activity of phytoplankton. Any significant decrease in the net oxygen production by phytoplankton is therefore likely to result in the depletion of atmospheric oxygen and in a global mass mortality of animals and humans. In its turn, the rate of oxygen production is known to depend on water temperature and hence can be affected by the global warming. We address this problem theoretically by considering a model of a coupled plankton-oxygen dynamics where the rate of oxygen production slowly changes with time to account for the ocean warming. We show that, when the temperature rises sufficiently high, a regime shift happens: the sustainable oxygen production becomes impossible and the system's dynamics leads to fast oxygen depletion and plankton extinction. We also consider a scenario when, after a certain period of increase, the temperature is set on a new higher yet apparently safe value, i.e. before the oxygen depletion disaster happens. We show that in this case the system dynamics may exhibit a long-term quasi-sustainable dynamics that can still result in an ecological disaster (oxygen depletion and mass extinctions) but only after a considerable period of time. Finally, we discuss the early warning signals of the approaching regime shift resulting in the disaster. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Persistent millennial-scale shifts in moisture regimes in western Canada during the past six millennia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumming, Brian F.; Laird, Kathleen R.; Bennett, Joseph R.; Smol, John P.; Salomon, Anne K.

    2002-01-01

    Inferences of past climatic conditions from a sedimentary record from Big Lake, British Columbia, Canada, over the past 5,500 years show strong millennial-scale patterns, which oscillate between periods of wet and drier climatic conditions. Higher frequency decadal- to centennial-scale fluctuations also occur within the dominant millennial-scale patterns. These changes in climatic conditions are based on estimates of changes in lake depth and salinity inferred from diatom assemblages in a well dated sediment core. After periods of relative stability, abrupt shifts in diatom assemblages and inferred climatic conditions occur approximately every 1,220 years. The correspondence of these shifts to millennial-scale variations in records of glacial expansion/recession and ice-rafting events in the Atlantic suggest that abrupt millennial-scale shifts are important to understanding climatic variability in North America during the mid- to late Holocene. Unfortunately, the spatial patterns and mechanisms behind these large and abrupt swings are poorly understood. Similar abrupt and prolonged changes in climatic conditions today could pose major societal challenges for many regions. PMID:12461174

  4. Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lance Gunderson

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a development and stabilization, (b cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3 periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises, but may also facilitate recovery; and constrain system transformation, but may also provide windows of opportunity in which transformation, and the resources to accomplish it, may occur. The framework is the starting point for our exploration of how law might play a role in enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt to climate change.

  5. Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunderson, Lance; Cosens, Barbara; Chaffin, Brian C.; Arnold, Craig Anthony (Tony); Fremier, Alexander K.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Kundis Craig, Robin; Gosnell, Hannah; Birge, Hannah E.; Allen, Craig R.; Benson, Melinda H.; Morrison, Ryan R.; Stone, Mark; Hamm, Joseph A.; Nemec, Kristine T.; Schlager, Edella; Llewellyn, Dagmar

    2017-01-01

    In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises, but may also facilitate recovery; and constrain system transformation, but may also provide windows of opportunity in which transformation, and the resources to accomplish it, may occur. The framework is the starting point for our exploration of how law might play a role in enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt to climate change.

  6. Resource manager information needs regarding hydrologic regime shifts for the North Pacific Landscape Conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, Andrea; Jenni, Karen

    2014-01-01

    Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network of 22 public-private partnerships, defined by ecoregion, that share and provide science to ensure the sustainability of land, water, wildlife, and cultural resources in North America. LCCs were established by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) in recognition of the fact that response to climate change must be coordinated on a landscape-level basis because important resources, ecosystem processes, and resource management challenges extend beyond most of the boundaries considered in current natural resource management. The North Pacific LCC (NPLCC) covers the range of the Pacific coastal temperate rainforest, including an area of 528,360 km2 spanning 22 degrees of latitude from the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, to Bodega Bay, California. The coverage area includes parts of four States, two Canadian provinces, and more than 100 Tribes and First Nation language groups. It extends from alpine areas at the crest of coastal mountains across subalpine, montane, and lowland forests to the nearshore marine environment. This wide range of latitudes and elevation zones; terrestrial, freshwater, and marine habitats; and complex jurisdictional boundaries hosts a diversity of natural resources and their corresponding management issues are equally diverse. As evidenced by the Science and Traditional Ecological Knowledge (S-TEK) Strategy guiding principles, identifying and responding to the needs of resource managers is key to the success of the NPLCC. To help achieve this goal of the NPLCC, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has organized several workshops with resource managers and resource scientists to identify management information needs relevant to the priority topics identified in the S-TEK Strategy. Here, we detail the results from a first workshop to address the effects of changes in hydrologic regime on rivers, streams, and riparian corridors. The workshop focused on a subset of the full NPLCC geography and was

  7. Eastward shift and maintenance of Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone: Understanding the paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, Shiba Shankar; Panigrahi, Mruganka K.

    2016-09-01

    The dominance of Oxygen Minimum Zone in the eastern part of the Arabian Sea (ASOMZ) instead of the more bio-productive and likely more oxygen consuming western part is the first part of the paradox. The sources of oxygen to the ASOMZ were evaluated through the distributions of different water masses using the extended optimum multiparameter (eOMP) analysis, whereas the sinks of oxygen were evaluated through the organic matter remineralization, using the apparent oxygen utilization (AOU). The contributions of major source waters to the Arabian Sea viz. Indian Deep water (dIDW), Indian Central water (ICW), Persian Gulf Water (PGW) and Red Sea Water (RSW) have been quantified through the eOMP analysis which shows that the PGW and RSW are significant for the eastward shift of ASOMZ instead of voluminous ICW and dIDW. The distribution of Net Primary Production (NPP) and AOU clearly suggest the transport of organic detritus from the highly productive western Arabian Sea to its eastern counterpart which adds to the eastward shifting of ASOMZ. A revised estimate of the seasonal variation of areal extent and volume occupied by ASOMZ through analysis of latest available data reveals a distinct intensification of ASOMZ by 30% and increase in its volume by 5% during the spring-summer transition. However, during this seasonal transition the productivity in the Arabian Sea shows 100% increase in mean NPP. This disparity between ASOMZ and monsoonal variation of productivity is the other part of the paradox, which has been constrained through apparent oxygen utilization, Net Primary Production along with a variation of core depths of source waters. This study reveals a subtle balance between the circulation of marginal oxygen-rich water masses from the western Arabian Sea and organic matter remineralization in the eastern Arabian Sea in different seasons that explains the maintenance of ASOMZ throughout the year.

  8. A Linear Dynamical Systems Approach to Streamflow Reconstruction Reveals History of Regime Shifts in Northern Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Hung T. T.; Galelli, Stefano

    2018-03-01

    Catchment dynamics is not often modeled in streamflow reconstruction studies; yet, the streamflow generation process depends on both catchment state and climatic inputs. To explicitly account for this interaction, we contribute a linear dynamic model, in which streamflow is a function of both catchment state (i.e., wet/dry) and paleoclimatic proxies. The model is learned using a novel variant of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and it is used with a paleo drought record—the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas—to reconstruct 406 years of streamflow for the Ping River (northern Thailand). Results for the instrumental period show that the dynamic model has higher accuracy than conventional linear regression; all performance scores improve by 45-497%. Furthermore, the reconstructed trajectory of the state variable provides valuable insights about the catchment history—e.g., regime-like behavior—thereby complementing the information contained in the reconstructed streamflow time series. The proposed technique can replace linear regression, since it only requires information on streamflow and climatic proxies (e.g., tree-rings, drought indices); furthermore, it is capable of readily generating stochastic streamflow replicates. With a marginal increase in computational requirements, the dynamic model brings more desirable features and value to streamflow reconstructions.

  9. Energy Issues As The Trigger Of Formation Of An International Regime Of The Caspian Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. S. Rozhkov

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The research object of the article is a development of the international regime of the Caspian Sea after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and increase in the number of the Caspian Littoral States, which transformed the former “closed” Soviet-Iranian region to the arena for wrangling between the different foreign policy interests of the most powerful world nations. The research subject is the key role of energy resources in the negotiation process between the States of the Caspian Region. The author pays special attention to the evolution of national approaches of the “Caspian Five” to the problem of mineral resources delimitation as well as its connection to negotiations on the draft comprehensive Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea. The article mentions the key benchmarks of the negotiation process, examines the influence of biand multilateral arrangements among Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan during 1998-2003 on the situation in the region. The role of conflicts among Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan over transboundary oil and gas fields in the southern part of the sea as a factor of regional instability as well as its negative influence on the relations between the Caspian Littoral States, in general, are analyzed. The main conclusion of the author is that debates, launched by the Caspian Littoral States on the energy issues in the format of the Special Working Group at the level of Deputy Foreign Ministers, have gradually transformed to the multilateral mechanism for interaction of regional actors and become a trigger for debates on the other issues of the Caspian agenda such as economic, ecological, military, security, transport, tourist cooperation, etc. Taking into account importance and a positive role of four Caspian Summits as well as influence of other factors (separate position of Iran, external forces, environmental risks on the negotiation process, the author underlines the fact that all efforts of

  10. A regime shift in the Sun-Climate connection with the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnov, D A; Breitenbach, S F M; Feulner, G; Lechleitner, F A; Prufer, K M; Baldini, J U L; Marwan, N; Kurths, J

    2017-09-11

    Understanding the influence of changes in solar activity on Earth's climate and distinguishing it from other forcings, such as volcanic activity, remains a major challenge for palaeoclimatology. This problem is best approached by investigating how these variables influenced past climate conditions as recorded in high precision paleoclimate archives. In particular, determining if the climate system response to these forcings changes through time is critical. Here we use the Wiener-Granger causality approach along with well-established cross-correlation analysis to investigate the causal relationship between solar activity, volcanic forcing, and climate as reflected in well-established Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rainfall proxy records from Yok Balum Cave, southern Belize. Our analysis reveals a consistent influence of volcanic activity on regional Central American climate over the last two millennia. However, the coupling between solar variability and local climate varied with time, with a regime shift around 1000-1300 CE after which the solar-climate coupling weakened considerably.

  11. Seasonal marine growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in relation to competition with Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscho) and the 1977 ocean regime shift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggerone, Gregory T.; Farley, Ed; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Hagen, Peter

    2005-01-01

    Recent research demonstrated significantly lower growth and survival of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) during odd-numbered years of their second or third years at sea (1975, 1977, etc.), a trend that was opposite that of Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) abundance. Here we evaluated seasonal growth trends of Kvichak and Egegik river sockeye salmon (Bristol Bay stocks) during even- and odd-numbered years at sea by measuring scale circuli increments within each growth zone of each major salmon age group between 1955 and 2000. First year scale growth was not significantly different between odd- and even-numbered years, but peak growth of age-2. smolts was significantly higher than age-1 smolts. Total second and third year scale growth of salmon was significantly lower during odd- than during even-numbered years. However, reduced scale growth in odd-numbered years began after peak growth in spring and continued through summer and fall even though most pink salmon had left the high seas by late July (10-18% growth reduction in odd vs. even years). The alternating odd and even year growth pattern was consistent before and after the 1977 ocean regime shift. During 1977-2000, when salmon abundance was relatively great, sockeye salmon growth was high during specific seasons compared with that during 1955-1976, that is to say, immediately after entry to Bristol Bay, after peak growth in the first year, during the middle of the second growing season, and during spring of the third season. Growth after the spring peak in the third year at sea was relatively low during 1977-2000. We hypothesize that high consumption rates of prey by pink salmon during spring through mid-July of odd-numbered years, coupled with declining zooplankton biomass during summer and potentially cyclic abundances of squid and other prey, contributed to reduced prey availability and therefore reduced growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon during late spring through fall of odd-numbered years.

  12. Coastal regime shifts: rapid responses of coastal wetlands to changes in mangrove cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Hongyu; Weaver, Carolyn; Charles, Sean P; Whitt, Ashley; Dastidar, Sayantani; D'Odorico, Paolo; Fuentes, Jose D; Kominoski, John S; Armitage, Anna R; Pennings, Steven C

    2017-03-01

    Global changes are causing broad-scale shifts in vegetation communities worldwide, including coastal habitats where the borders between mangroves and salt marsh are in flux. Coastal habitats provide numerous ecosystem services of high economic value, but the consequences of variation in mangrove cover are poorly known. We experimentally manipulated mangrove cover in large plots to test a set of linked hypotheses regarding the effects of changes in mangrove cover. We found that changes in mangrove cover had strong effects on microclimate, plant community, sediment accretion, soil organic content, and bird abundance within 2 yr. At higher mangrove cover, wind speed declined and light interception by vegetation increased. Air and soil temperatures had hump-shaped relationships with mangrove cover. The cover of salt marsh plants decreased at higher mangrove cover. Wrack cover, the distance that wrack was distributed from the water's edge, and sediment accretion decreased at higher mangrove cover. Soil organic content increased with mangrove cover. Wading bird abundance decreased at higher mangrove cover. Many of these relationships were non-linear, with the greatest effects when mangrove cover varied from zero to intermediate values, and lesser effects when mangrove cover varied from intermediate to high values. Temporal and spatial variation in measured variables often peaked at intermediate mangrove cover, with ecological consequences that are largely unexplored. Because different processes varied in different ways with mangrove cover, the "optimum" cover of mangroves from a societal point of view will depend on which ecosystem services are most desired. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  13. Tropical Atlantic climate and ecosystem regime shifts during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieling, Joost; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Middelburg, Jack J.; Röhl, Ursula; Westerhold, Thomas; Bohaty, Steven M.; Sluijs, Appy

    2018-01-01

    The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 56 Ma) was a phase of rapid global warming associated with massive carbon input into the ocean-atmosphere system from a 13C-depleted reservoir. Many midlatitude and high-latitude sections have been studied and document changes in salinity, hydrology and sedimentation, deoxygenation, biotic overturning, and migrations, but detailed records from tropical regions are lacking. Here, we study the PETM at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 959 in the equatorial Atlantic using a range of organic and inorganic proxies and couple these with dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblage analysis. The PETM at Site 959 was previously found to be marked by a ˜ 3.8 ‰ negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) and a ˜ 4 °C surface ocean warming from the uppermost Paleocene to peak PETM, of which ˜ 1 °C occurs before the onset of the CIE. We record upper Paleocene dinocyst assemblages that are similar to PETM assemblages as found in extratropical regions, confirming poleward migrations of ecosystems during the PETM. The early stages of the PETM are marked by a typical acme of the tropical genus Apectodinium, which reaches abundances of up to 95 %. Subsequently, dinocyst abundances diminish greatly, as do carbonate and pyritized silicate microfossils. The combined paleoenvironmental information from Site 959 and a close-by shelf site in Nigeria implies the general absence of eukaryotic surface-dwelling microplankton during peak PETM warmth in the eastern equatorial Atlantic, most likely caused by heat stress. We hypothesize, based on a literature survey, that heat stress might have reduced calcification in more tropical regions, potentially contributing to reduced deep sea carbonate accumulation rates, and, by buffering acidification, also to biological carbonate compensation of the injected carbon during the PETM. Crucially, abundant organic benthic foraminiferal linings imply sustained export production, likely driven by prokaryotes. In

  14. Tropical Atlantic climate and ecosystem regime shifts during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Frieling

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 56 Ma was a phase of rapid global warming associated with massive carbon input into the ocean–atmosphere system from a 13C-depleted reservoir. Many midlatitude and high-latitude sections have been studied and document changes in salinity, hydrology and sedimentation, deoxygenation, biotic overturning, and migrations, but detailed records from tropical regions are lacking. Here, we study the PETM at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP Site 959 in the equatorial Atlantic using a range of organic and inorganic proxies and couple these with dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst assemblage analysis. The PETM at Site 959 was previously found to be marked by a  ∼  3.8 ‰ negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE and a  ∼  4 °C surface ocean warming from the uppermost Paleocene to peak PETM, of which  ∼  1 °C occurs before the onset of the CIE. We record upper Paleocene dinocyst assemblages that are similar to PETM assemblages as found in extratropical regions, confirming poleward migrations of ecosystems during the PETM. The early stages of the PETM are marked by a typical acme of the tropical genus Apectodinium, which reaches abundances of up to 95 %. Subsequently, dinocyst abundances diminish greatly, as do carbonate and pyritized silicate microfossils. The combined paleoenvironmental information from Site 959 and a close-by shelf site in Nigeria implies the general absence of eukaryotic surface-dwelling microplankton during peak PETM warmth in the eastern equatorial Atlantic, most likely caused by heat stress. We hypothesize, based on a literature survey, that heat stress might have reduced calcification in more tropical regions, potentially contributing to reduced deep sea carbonate accumulation rates, and, by buffering acidification, also to biological carbonate compensation of the injected carbon during the PETM. Crucially, abundant organic benthic foraminiferal linings imply

  15. The performance of the Black Sea Commission as a collaborative governance regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Avoyan, Emma; Tatenhove, van J.P.M.; Toonen, H.M.

    2017-01-01

    It is often claimed that the Black Sea is one of the most degraded seas in the world. Management to rehabilitate the Black Sea requires cooperation between the coastal countries to be successful. However, regional cooperation in the Black Sea is poorly coordinated and lack concrete outcomes. This

  16. The Arctic-Subarctic Sea Ice System is Entering a Seasonal Regime: Implications for Future Arctic Amplication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haine, T. W. N.; Martin, T.

    2017-12-01

    The loss of Arctic sea ice is a conspicuous example of climate change. Climate models project ice-free conditions during summer this century under realistic emission scenarios, reflecting the increase in seasonality in ice cover. To quantify the increased seasonality in the Arctic-Subarctic sea ice system, we define a non-dimensional seasonality number for sea ice extent, area, and volume from satellite data and realistic coupled climate models. We show that the Arctic-Subarctic, i.e. the northern hemisphere, sea ice now exhibits similar levels of seasonality to the Antarctic, which is in a seasonal regime without significant change since satellite observations began in 1979. Realistic climate models suggest that this transition to the seasonal regime is being accompanied by a maximum in Arctic amplification, which is the faster warming of Arctic latitudes compared to the global mean, in the 2010s. The strong link points to a peak in sea-ice-related feedbacks that occurs long before the Arctic becomes ice-free in summer.

  17. Phase-Shift Dynamics of Sea Urchin Overgrazing on Nutrified Reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kriegisch, Nina; Reeves, Simon; Johnson, Craig R; Ling, Scott D

    2016-01-01

    Shifts from productive kelp beds to impoverished sea urchin barrens occur globally and represent a wholesale change to the ecology of sub-tidal temperate reefs. Although the theory of shifts between alternative stable states is well advanced, there are few field studies detailing the dynamics of these kinds of transitions. In this study, sea urchin herbivory (a 'top-down' driver of ecosystems) was manipulated over 12 months to estimate (1) the sea urchin density at which kelp beds collapse to sea urchin barrens, and (2) the minimum sea urchin density required to maintain urchin barrens on experimental reefs in the urbanised Port Phillip Bay, Australia. In parallel, the role of one of the 'bottom-up' drivers of ecosystem structure was examined by (3) manipulating local nutrient levels and thus attempting to alter primary production on the experimental reefs. It was found that densities of 8 or more urchins m-2 (≥ 427 g m-2 biomass) lead to complete overgrazing of kelp beds while kelp bed recovery occurred when densities were reduced to ≤ 4 urchins m-2 (≤ 213 g m-2 biomass). This experiment provided further insight into the dynamics of transition between urchin barrens and kelp beds by exploring possible tipping-points which in this system can be found between 4 and 8 urchins m-2 (213 and 427 g m-2 respectively). Local enhancement of nutrient loading did not change the urchin density required for overgrazing or kelp bed recovery, as algal growth was not affected by nutrient enhancement.

  18. Phase-Shift Dynamics of Sea Urchin Overgrazing on Nutrified Reefs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Kriegisch

    Full Text Available Shifts from productive kelp beds to impoverished sea urchin barrens occur globally and represent a wholesale change to the ecology of sub-tidal temperate reefs. Although the theory of shifts between alternative stable states is well advanced, there are few field studies detailing the dynamics of these kinds of transitions. In this study, sea urchin herbivory (a 'top-down' driver of ecosystems was manipulated over 12 months to estimate (1 the sea urchin density at which kelp beds collapse to sea urchin barrens, and (2 the minimum sea urchin density required to maintain urchin barrens on experimental reefs in the urbanised Port Phillip Bay, Australia. In parallel, the role of one of the 'bottom-up' drivers of ecosystem structure was examined by (3 manipulating local nutrient levels and thus attempting to alter primary production on the experimental reefs. It was found that densities of 8 or more urchins m-2 (≥ 427 g m-2 biomass lead to complete overgrazing of kelp beds while kelp bed recovery occurred when densities were reduced to ≤ 4 urchins m-2 (≤ 213 g m-2 biomass. This experiment provided further insight into the dynamics of transition between urchin barrens and kelp beds by exploring possible tipping-points which in this system can be found between 4 and 8 urchins m-2 (213 and 427 g m-2 respectively. Local enhancement of nutrient loading did not change the urchin density required for overgrazing or kelp bed recovery, as algal growth was not affected by nutrient enhancement.

  19. Understanding regime shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heymann, Matthias; Nielsen, Kristian Hvidtfelt

    Wind power was an important power source not only in the preindustrial era but also into the nineteenth and early twentieth century. In most regions by the mid twentieth century the ubiquitous windmill was quickly replaced by alternative power sources, mainly electricity. Efforts to revive wind...... in Denmark proved more successful than heavily funded efforts in the USA, Sweden or Germany. Within few years, Danish wind turbines dominated California wind parks and outclassed the turbines from other producers. Since the 1980s, all successful wind turbine producers copied basic features of “Danish Design...

  20. Increasing sea surface temperature and range shifts of intertidal gastropods along the Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubal, Marcos; Veiga, Puri; Cacabelos, Eva; Moreira, Juan; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel

    2013-03-01

    There are well-documented changes in abundance and geographical range of intertidal invertebrates related to climate change at north Europe. However, the effect of sea surface warming on intertidal invertebrates has been poorly studied at lower latitudes. Here we analyze potential changes in the abundance patterns and distribution range of rocky intertidal gastropods related to climate change along the Iberian Peninsula. To achieve this aim, the spatial distribution and range of sub-tropical, warm- and cold-water species of intertidal gastropods was explored by a fully hierarchical sampling design considering four different spatial scales, i.e. from region (100 s of km apart) to quadrats (ms apart). Variability on their patterns of abundance was explored by analysis of variance, changes on their distribution ranges were detected by comparing with previous records and their relationship with sea water temperature was explored by rank correlation analyses. Mean values of sea surface temperature along the Iberian coast, between 1949 and 2010, were obtained from in situ data compiled for three different grid squares: south Portugal, north Portugal, and Galicia. Lusitanian species did not show significant correlation with sea water temperature or changes on their distributional range or abundance, along the temperature gradient considered. The sub-tropical species Siphonaria pectinata has, however, increased its distribution range while boreal cold-water species showed the opposite pattern. The latter was more evident for Littorina littorea that was almost absent from the studied rocky shores of the Iberian Peninsula. Sub-tropical and boreal species showed significant but opposite correlation with sea water temperature. We hypothesized that the energetic cost of frequent exposures to sub-lethal temperatures might be responsible for these shifts. Therefore, intertidal gastropods at the Atlantic Iberian Peninsula coast are responding to the effect of global warming as it

  1. Regime shift of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to a persistent arid state: external forcing versus internal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Ankur; Pradhan, Maheswar; Goswami, B. N.; Rao, Suryachandra A.

    2017-11-01

    The high propensity of deficient monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent in the recent 3 decades (seven deficient monsoons against 3 excess monsoon years) compared to the prior 3 decades has serious implications on the food and water resources in the country. Motivated by the need to understand the high occurrence of deficient monsoon during this period, we examine the change in predictability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and its teleconnections with Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures between the two periods. The shift in the tropical climate in the late 1970s appears to be one of the major reasons behind this. We find an increased predictability of the ISM in the recent 3 decades owing to reduced `internal' interannual variability (IAV) due to the high-frequency modes, while the `external' IAV arising from the low-frequency modes has remained largely the same. The Indian Ocean Dipole-ISM teleconnection has become positive during the monsoon season in the recent period thereby compensating for the weakened ENSO-ISM teleconnection. The central Pacific El-Niño and the Indian Ocean (IO) warming during the recent 3 decades are working together to realise enhanced ascending motion in the equatorial IO between 70°E and 100°E, preconditioning the Indian monsoon system prone to a deficient state.

  2. Decadal Shift in West China Autumn Precipitation and its Association With Sea Surface Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Ting; He, Shengping; Yan, Qing; Dong, Wenjie; Wen, Xiaohang

    2018-01-01

    West China autumn precipitation (WCAP) is the final stage of the rainy season in mainland China and is characterized as the secondary peak in annual cycle of precipitation in West China. This study reveals that WCAP experienced a significant interdecadal shift around the mid-1980s, with greatly reduced precipitation after this shift. Features related to the decrease in WCAP include the weakening of warm, wet southerlies prevailing from the oceans to inland China, the weakened Eurasian pattern, and the southward displacement of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS). Further analysis indicates that the interdecadal changes in WCAP may be attributed to the interdecadal increasing of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indo-Pacific warm pool (SSTIOP), North Pacific (SSTNP), and central equatorial Pacific (SSTCEP) after the 1980s. The warmer SSTIOP contributes to a weaker meridional land-sea thermal contrast, which inducts an anomalous local meridional circulation and northerly. The warmer SSTNP stimulates a Rossby wave train that leads to weakened West Pacific subtropical high and accompanying cyclonic circulation anomaly, hindering the transport of water vapor inland from the oceans. The increased SSTCEP leads to the southward displacement of the EAJS and its secondary circulation, generating an anomalous descending branch and reduced WCAP. Numerical simulations further support the conclusions derived from the diagnostic analysis that the decadal warming of the SSTIOP, SSTNP, and SSTCEP synergistically contributes to the reduction of WCAP after the 1980s.

  3. Climate regime shifts in paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula: from the Preclassic to Classic period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polanco Martínez, Josue M.; Medina-Elizalde, Martin; Burns, Stephen J.; Jiang, Xiuyang; Shen, Chuan-Chou

    2015-04-01

    It has been widely accepted by the paleoclimate and archaeology communities that extreme climate events (especially droughts) and past climate change played an important role in the cultural changes that occurred in at least some parts of the Maya Lowlands, from the Pre-Classic (2000 BC to 250 AD) to Post-Classic periods (1000 to 1521 AD) [1, 2]. In particular, a large number of studies suggest that the decline of the Maya civilization in the Terminal Classic Period was greatly influenced by prolonged severe drought events that probably triggered significant societal disruptions [1, 3, 4, 5]. Going further on these issues, the aim of this work is to detect climate regime shifts in several paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula (México) that have been used as rainfall proxies [3, 5, 6, 7]. In order to extract information from the paleoclimate data studied, we have used a change point method [8] as implemented in the R package strucchange, as well as the RAMFIT method [9]. The preliminary results show for all the records analysed a prominent regime shift between 400 to 200 BCE (from a noticeable increase to a remarkable fall in precipitation), which is strongest in the recently obtained stalagmite (Itzamna) delta18-O precipitation record [7]. References [1] Gunn, J. D., Matheny, R. T., Folan, W. J., 2002. Climate-change studies in the Maya area. Ancient Mesoamerica, 13(01), 79-84. [2] Yaeger, J., Hodell, D. A., 2008. The collapse of Maya civilization: assessing the interaction of culture, climate, and environment. El Niño, Catastrophism, and Culture Change in Ancient America, 197-251. [3] Hodell, D. A., Curtis, J. H., Brenner, M., 1995. Possible role of climate in the collapse of Classic Maya civilization. Nature, 375(6530), 391-394. [4] Aimers, J., Hodell, D., 2011. Societal collapse: Drought and the Maya. Nature 479(7371), 44-45 (2011). [5] Medina-Elizalde, M., Rohling, E. J., 2012. Collapse of Classic Maya civilization related to modest reduction

  4. Unbounded boundaries and shifting baselines: Estuaries and coastal seas in a rapidly changing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, S.; Spencer, K. L.; Schuttelaars, H. M.; Millward, G. E.; Elliott, M.

    2017-11-01

    This Special Issue of Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science presents contributions from ECSA 55; an international symposium organised by the Estuarine and Coastal Sciences Association (ECSA) and Elsevier on the broad theme of estuaries and coastal seas in times of intense change. The objectives of the SI are to synthesise, hypothesise and illustrate the impacts of global change on estuaries and coastal seas through learning lessons from the past, discussing the current and forecasting for the future. It is highlighted here that establishing impacts and assigning cause to the many pressures of global change is and will continue to be a formidable challenge in estuaries and coastal seas, due in part to: (1) their complexity and unbounded nature; (2) difficulties distinguishing between human-induced changes and natural variations and; (3) multiple pressures and effects. The contributing authors have explored a number of these issues over a range of disciplines. The complexity and connectivity of estuaries and coastal seas have been investigated through studies of physicochemical and ecological components, whilst the human imprint on the environment has been identified through a series of predictive, contemporary, historical and palaeo approaches. The impact of human activities has been shown to occur over a range of spatial and temporal scales, requiring the development of integrated management approaches. These 30 articles provide an important contribution to our understanding and assessment of the impacts of global change. The authors highlight methods for essential management/mitigation of the consequences of global change and provide a set of directions, ideas and observations for future work. These include the need to consider: (1) the cumulative, synergistic and antagonistic effects of multiple pressures; (2) the importance of unbounded boundaries and connectivity across the aquatic continuum; (3) the value of combining cross-disciplinary palaeo, contemporary and

  5. The Behavior of Interest Rate Differentials Under Shifting Exchange Rate Regimes: The Experience of Chile, Colombia and Israel

    OpenAIRE

    Carlos Ibarra

    2005-01-01

    This paper studies the dynamics of the interest rate differential across band and floating exchange rate regimes in Chile, Colombia and Israel, and in a benchmark group composed of Italy, Portugal and Spain. Significant differences in the interest rate-exchange rate link are found between the two groups, irrespective of regime. However, in all countries, except Italy, the interest differential ceased to behave anti-cyclically against output after the adoption of floating, possibly because of ...

  6. Meteorological conditions in a thinner Arctic sea ice regime from winter to summer during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice expedition (N-ICE2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Lana; Hudson, Stephen R.; Walden, Von P.; Graham, Robert M.; Granskog, Mats A.

    2017-07-01

    Atmospheric measurements were made over Arctic sea ice north of Svalbard from winter to early summer (January-June) 2015 during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice (N-ICE2015) expedition. These measurements, which are available publicly, represent a comprehensive meteorological data set covering the seasonal transition in the Arctic Basin over the new, thinner sea ice regime. Winter was characterized by a succession of storms that produced short-lived (less than 48 h) temperature increases of 20 to 30 K at the surface. These storms were driven by the hemispheric scale circulation pattern with a large meridional component of the polar jet stream steering North Atlantic storms into the high Arctic. Nonstorm periods during winter were characterized by strong surface temperature inversions due to strong radiative cooling ("radiatively clear state"). The strength and depth of these inversions were similar to those during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) campaign. In contrast, atmospheric profiles during the "opaquely cloudy state" were different to those from SHEBA due to differences in the synoptic conditions and location within the ice pack. Storm events observed during spring/summer were the result of synoptic systems located in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Basin rather than passing directly over N-ICE2015. These synoptic systems were driven by a large-scale circulation pattern typical of recent years, with an Arctic Dipole pattern developing during June. Surface temperatures became near-constant 0°C on 1 June marking the beginning of summer. Atmospheric profiles during the spring and early summer show persistent lifted temperature and moisture inversions that are indicative of clouds and cloud processes.

  7. Limnological regime shifts caused by climate warming and Lesser Snow Goose population expansion in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Manitoba, Canada).

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, Lauren A; Farquharson, Nicole; Merritt, Gillian; Fooks, Sam; Medeiros, Andrew S; Hall, Roland I; Wolfe, Brent B; Macrae, Merrin L; Sweetman, Jon N

    2015-02-01

    Shallow lakes are dominant features in subarctic and Arctic landscapes and are responsive to multiple stressors, which can lead to rapid changes in limnological regimes with consequences for aquatic resources. We address this theme in the coastal tundra region of Wapusk National Park, western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Canada), where climate has warmed during the past century and the Lesser Snow Goose (LSG; Chen caerulescens caerulescens) population has grown rapidly during the past ∽40 years. Integration of limnological and paleolimnological analyses documents profound responses of productivity, nutrient cycling, and aquatic habitat to warming at three ponds ("WAP 12", "WAP 20", and "WAP 21″), and to LSG disturbance at the two ponds located in an active nesting area (WAP 20, WAP 21). Based on multiparameter analysis of (210)Pb-dated sediment records from all three ponds, a regime shift occurred between 1875 and 1900 CE marked by a transition from low productivity, turbid, and nutrient-poor conditions of the Little Ice Age to conditions of higher productivity, lower nitrogen availability, and the development of benthic biofilm habitat as a result of climate warming. Beginning in the mid-1970s, sediment records from WAP 20 and WAP 21 reveal a second regime shift characterized by accelerated productivity and increased nitrogen availability. Coupled with 3 years of limnological data, results suggest that increased productivity at WAP 20 and WAP 21 led to atmospheric CO2 invasion to meet algal photosynthetic demand. This limnological regime shift is attributed to an increase in the supply of catchment-derived nutrients from the arrival of LSG and their subsequent disturbance to the landscape. Collectively, findings discriminate the consequences of warming and LSG disturbance on tundra ponds from which we identify a suite of sensitive limnological and paleolimnological measures that can be utilized to inform aquatic ecosystem monitoring.

  8. Postglacial sedimentary regime around northern Sylt, South-eastern North Sea, based on shallow seismic evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boldreel, Lars Ole; Kuijpers, Antoon; Madsen, Emil B

    2010-01-01

    , in the outer delta, a dune field suggesting westerly-directed sediment transport is identified. The two dune fields appear to be separated by minor indefinite bed forms. The northern part of the Lister Tief is characterised by the presence of a channel with a depth of 20-30 mbsf (meter below sea level) (30......-40 msec TWT (Two Way Traveltime)) and displaying erosion towards the north. At the western termination of the channel the sediment transport pathway appears to be divided into two directions; one towards the outer delta, and one towards the sediment depocenter SW of Rømø. The Lister Ley is characterized......During the past 5 years the coastal zone offshore the northern part of the island of Sylt, has been investigated by sparker seismics and high-resolution subbottom profiling. The North Sea sector of the area is characterized by northward-directed sediment bypass as a result of strong long...

  9. Projected shifts in copepod surface communities in the Mediterranean Sea under several climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedetti, F.; Guilhaumon, F.; Adloff, F.; Irisson, J. O.; Ayata, S. D.

    2016-02-01

    Although future increases in water temperature and future changes in regional circulation are expected to have great impacts on the pelagic food-web, estimates focusing on community-level shifts are still lacking for the planktonic compartment. By combining statistical niche models (or species distribution models) with projections from a regional circulation model, the impact of climate change on copepod epipelagic communities is assessed for the Mediterranean Sea. Habitat suitability maps are generated for 106 of the most abundant copepod species to analyze emerging patterns of diversity at the community level. Using variance analysis, we also quantified the uncertainties associated to our modeling strategy (niche model choice, CO2 emission scenario, boundary forcings of the circulation model). Comparing present and future projections, changes in species richness (alpha diversity) and in community composition (beta diversity, decomposed into turnover and nestedness component) are calculated. Average projections show that copepod communities will mainly experience turn-over processes, with little changes in species richness. Species gains are mainly located in the Gulf of Lions, the Northern Adriatic and the Northern Aegean seas. However, projections are highly variable, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean basin. We show that such variability is mainly driven by the choice of the niche model, through interactions with the CO2 emission scenario or the boundary forcing of the circulation model can be locally important. Finally, the possible impact of the estimated community changes on zooplanktonic functional and phylogenetic diversity is also assessed. We encourage the enlargement of this type of study to other components of the pelagic food-web, and argue that niche models' outputs should always be given along with a measure of uncertainty, and explained in light of a strong theoretical background.

  10. Shifts in dynamic regime of an invasive lady beetle are linked to the invasion and insecticidal management of its prey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bahlai, C.A.; Werf, van der W.; O'Neal, M.; Hemerik, L.; Landis, D.A.

    2015-01-01

    The spread and impact of invasive species may vary over time in relation to changes in the species itself, the biological community of which it is part, or external controls on the system. Here we investigate whether there have been changes in dynamic regimes over the last 20 years of two invasive

  11. Nucleon structure in the chiral regime with domain wall fermions on an improved staggered sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    R.G. Edwards; G. Fleming; Ph. Hagler; J.W. Negele; K. Orginos; A.V. Pochinsky; D.B. Renner; D.G. Richards; W. Schroers

    2006-01-01

    Moments of unpolarized, helicity, and transversity distributions, electromagnetic form factors, and generalized form factors of the nucleon are presented from a preliminary analysis of lattice results using pion masses down to 359 MeV. The twist two matrix elements are calculated using a mixed action of domain wall valence quarks and asqtad staggered sea quarks and are renormalized perturbatively. Several observables are extrapolated to the physical limit using chiral perturbation theory. Results are compared with experimental moments of quark distributions and electromagnetic form factors and phenomenologically determined generalized form factors, and the implications on the transverse structure and spin content of the nucleon are discussed

  12. Thermal regime of the State 2-14 well, Salton Sea Scientific Drilling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sass, J.H.; Priest, S.S.; Duda, L.E.; Carson, C.C.; Hendricks, J.D.; Robison, L.C.

    1988-01-01

    Temperature logs were made repeatedly during breaks in drilling and both during and after flow tests in the Salton Sea Scientific Drilling Project well (State 2-14). The purpose of these logs was to assist in identifying zones of fluid loss or gain and to characterize reservoir temperatures. At the conclusion of the active phase of the project, a series of logs was begun in an attempt to establish the equilibrium temperature profile. Thermal gradients decrease from about 250 mK m-1 in the upper few hundred meters to just below 200 mK m-1 near the base of the conductive cap. Using one interpretation, thermal conductivities increase with depth (mainly because of decreasing porosity), resulting in component heat flows that agree reasonably well with the mean of about 450 mW m-2. This value agrees well with heat flow data from the shallow wells within the Salton Sea geothermal field. A second interpretation, in which measured temperature coefficients of quartz- and carbonate-rich rocks are used to correct thermal conductivity, results in lower mean conductivities that are roughly constant with depth and, consequently, systematically decreasing heat flux averaging about 350 mW m-2 below 300 m. This interpretation is consistent with the inference (from fluid inclusion studies) that the rocks in this part of the field were once several tens of degrees Celsius hotter than they are now. The age of this possible disturbance is estimated at a few thousand years. -from Authors

  13. Making the ecosystem approach operational-Can regime shifts in ecological- and governance systems facilitate the transition?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Österblom, H.; Gårdmark, A.; Bergström, L.

    2010-01-01

    Effectively reducing cumulative impacts on marine ecosystems requires co-evolution between science, policy and practice. Here, long-term social–ecological changes in the Baltic Sea are described, illustrating how the process of making the ecosystem approach operational in a large marine ecosystem...... stimulating innovations and re-organizing governance structures at drainage basin level to the Baltic Sea catchment as a whole. Experimentation and innovation at local to the regional levels is critical for a transition to ecosystem-based management. Establishing science-based learning platforms at sub...

  14. Decadal shifts in autumn migration timing by Pacific Arctic beluga whales are related to delayed annual sea ice formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, Donna D W; Laidre, Kristin L; Stafford, Kathleen M; Stern, Harry L; Suydam, Robert S; Richard, Pierre R

    2017-06-01

    Migrations are often influenced by seasonal environmental gradients that are increasingly being altered by climate change. The consequences of rapid changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to affect migrations of a number of marine species whose timing is temporally matched to seasonal sea ice cover. This topic has not been investigated for Pacific Arctic beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) that follow matrilineally maintained autumn migrations in the waters around Alaska and Russia. For the sympatric Eastern Chukchi Sea ('Chukchi') and Eastern Beaufort Sea ('Beaufort') beluga populations, we examined changes in autumn migration timing as related to delayed regional sea ice freeze-up since the 1990s, using two independent data sources (satellite telemetry data and passive acoustics) for both populations. We compared dates of migration between 'early' (1993-2002) and 'late' (2004-2012) tagging periods. During the late tagging period, Chukchi belugas had significantly delayed migrations (by 2 to >4 weeks, depending on location) from the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. Spatial analyses also revealed that departure from Beaufort Sea foraging regions by Chukchi whales was postponed in the late period. Chukchi beluga autumn migration timing occurred significantly later as regional sea ice freeze-up timing became later in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering seas. In contrast, Beaufort belugas did not shift migration timing between periods, nor was migration timing related to freeze-up timing, other than for southward migration at the Bering Strait. Passive acoustic data from 2008 to 2014 provided independent and supplementary support for delayed migration from the Beaufort Sea (4 day yr -1 ) by Chukchi belugas. Here, we report the first phenological study examining beluga whale migrations within the context of their rapidly transforming Pacific Arctic ecosystem, suggesting flexible responses that may enable their persistence yet also complicate predictions of how

  15. Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, Maya K.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Kopp, Robert E.

    2017-06-01

    The amplification of flood frequencies by sea level rise (SLR) is expected to become one of the most economically damaging impacts of climate change for many coastal locations. Understanding the magnitude and pattern by which the frequency of current flood levels increase is important for developing more resilient coastal settlements, particularly since flood risk management (e.g. infrastructure, insurance, communications) is often tied to estimates of flood return periods. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report characterized the multiplication factor by which the frequency of flooding of a given height increases (referred to here as an amplification factor; AF). However, this characterization neither rigorously considered uncertainty in SLR nor distinguished between the amplification of different flooding levels (such as the 10% versus 0.2% annual chance floods); therefore, it may be seriously misleading. Because both historical flood frequency and projected SLR are uncertain, we combine joint probability distributions of the two to calculate AFs and their uncertainties over time. Under probabilistic relative sea level projections, while maintaining storm frequency fixed, we estimate a median 40-fold increase (ranging from 1- to 1314-fold) in the expected annual number of local 100-year floods for tide-gauge locations along the contiguous US coastline by 2050. While some places can expect disproportionate amplification of higher frequency events and thus primarily a greater number of historically precedented floods, others face amplification of lower frequency events and thus a particularly fast growing risk of historically unprecedented flooding. For example, with 50 cm of SLR, the 10%, 1%, and 0.2% annual chance floods are expected respectively to recur 108, 335, and 814 times as often in Seattle, but 148, 16, and 4 times as often in Charleston, SC.

  16. High- and low-latitude forcing of the Nile River regime during the Holocene inferred from laminated sediments of the Nile deep-sea fan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blanchet, C.; Tjallingii, R.; Frank, M.; Lorenzen, J.; Reitz, A.; Brown, K.; Feseker, T.; Brückmann, W.

    2013-01-01

    Sediments deposited on deep-sea fans are an excellent geological archive to reconstruct past changes in fluvial discharge. Here we present a reconstruction of changes in the regime of the Nile River during the Holocene obtained using bulk elemental composition, grain-size analyses and radiogenic

  17. Mid- to late Holocene climate-driven regime shifts inferred from diatom, ostracod and stable isotope records from Lake Son Kol (Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Anja; Turner, Falko; Lauterbach, Stefan; Plessen, Birgit; Krahn, Kim J.; Glodniok, Sven; Mischke, Steffen; Stebich, Martina; Witt, Roman; Mingram, Jens; Schwalb, Antje

    2017-12-01

    Arid Central Asia represents a key region for understanding climate variability and interactions in the Northern Hemisphere. Patterns and mechanisms of Holocene climate change in arid Central Asia are, however, only partially understood. Multi-proxy data combining diatom, ostracod, sedimentological, geochemical and stable isotope analyses from a ca. 6000-year-old lake sediment core from Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) show distinct and repeated changes in species assemblages. Diatom- and ostracod-inferred conductivity shifts between meso-euhaline and freshwater conditions suggest water balance and regime shifts. Organism-derived data are corroborated by stable isotope, mineralogical and geochemical records, underlining that Son Kol was affected by strong lake level fluctuations of several meters. The δ13Ccarb/δ18Ocarb correlation shows repeated switchovers from a closed to an open lake system. From 6000 to 3800 and 3250 to 1950 cal. yr BP, Son Kol was a closed basin lake with higher conductivities, increased nutrient availability and a water level located below the modern outflow. Son Kol became again a hydrologically open lake at 3800 and 1950 cal. yr BP. Comparisons to other local and regional paleoclimate records indicate that these regime shifts were largely controlled by changing intensity and position of the Westerlies and the Siberian Anticyclone that triggered changes in the amount of winter precipitation. A strong influence of the Westerlies ca. 5000-4400, 3800-3250 and since 1950 cal. yr BP enhanced the amount of precipitation during spring, autumn and winter, whereas cold and dry winters prevailed during phases with a strong Siberian Anticyclone and southward shifted Westerlies at ca. 6000-5000, 4400-3800 and 3250-1950 cal. yr BP. Similarities between variations in winter precipitation at Son Kol and records of the predominant NAO-mode further suggest a teleconnection between wet (dry) winter climate in Central Asia and a positive (negative) NAO

  18. Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

    2011-01-01

    The timing of the seasons strongly effects ecosystems and human activities. Recently, there is increasing evidence of changes in the timing of the seasons, such as earlier spring seasons detected in phenological records, advanced seasonal timing of surface temperature, earlier snow melt or streamflow timing. For water resources management there is a need to quantitatively describe the variability in the timing of hydrological regimes and to understand how climatic changes control the seasonal water budget of river basins on the regional scale. In this study, changes of the annual cycle of hydrological variables are analysed for 27 river basins in Saxony/Germany. Thereby monthly series of basin runoff ratios, the ratio of runoff and basin precipitation are investigated for changes and variability of their annual periodicity over the period 1930-2009. Approximating the annual cycle by the means of harmonic functions gave acceptable results, while only two parameters, phase and amplitude, are required. It has been found that the annual phase of runoff ratio, representing the timing of the hydrological regime, is subject to considerable year-to-year variability, being concurrent with basins in similar hydro-climatic conditions. Two distinct basin classes have been identified, whereby basin elevation has been found to be the delimiting factor. An increasing importance of snow on the basin water balance with elevation is apparent and mainly governs the temporal variability of the annual timing of hydrological regimes. Further there is evidence of coincident changes in trend direction (change points in 1971 and 1988) in snow melt influenced basins. In these basins the timing of the runoff ratio is significantly correlated with the timing of temperature, and effects on runoff by temperature phase changes are even amplified. Interestingly, temperature effects may explain the low frequent variability of the second change point until today. However, the first change point can

  19. Female sea lamprey shift orientation toward a conspecific chemical cue to escape a sensory trap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brant, Cory O.; Johnson, Nicholas; Li, Ke; Buchinger, Tyler J.; Li, Weiming

    2016-01-01

    The sensory trap model of signal evolution hypothesizes that signalers adapt to exploit a cue used by the receiver in another context. Although exploitation of receiver biases can result in conflict between the sexes, deceptive signaling systems that are mutually beneficial drive the evolution of stable communication systems. However, female responses in the nonsexual and sexual contexts may become uncoupled if costs are associated with exhibiting a similar response to a trait in both contexts. Male sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) signal with a mating pheromone, 3-keto petromyzonol sulfate (3kPZS), which may be a match to a juvenile cue used by females during migration. Upstream movement of migratory lampreys is partially guided by 3kPZS, but females only move toward 3kPZS with proximal accuracy during spawning. Here, we use in-stream behavioral assays paired with gonad histology to document the transition of female preference for juvenile- and male-released 3kPZS that coincides with the functional shift of 3kPZS as a migratory cue to a mating pheromone. Females became increasingly biased toward the source of synthesized 3kPZS as their maturation progressed into the reproductive phase, at which point, a preference for juvenile odor (also containing 3kPZS naturally) ceased to exist. Uncoupling of female responses during migration and spawning makes the 3kPZS communication system a reliable means of synchronizing mate search. The present study offers a rare example of a transition in female responses to a chemical cue between nonsexual and sexual contexts, provides insights into the origins of stable communication signaling systems.

  20. From success to persistence: Identifying an evolutionary regime shift in the diverse Paleozoic aquatic arthropod group Eurypterida, driven by the Devonian biotic crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamsdell, James C; Selden, Paul A

    2017-01-01

    Mass extinctions have altered the trajectory of evolution a number of times over the Phanerozoic. During these periods of biotic upheaval a different selective regime appears to operate, although it is still unclear whether consistent survivorship rules apply across different extinction events. We compare variations in diversity and disparity across the evolutionary history of a major Paleozoic arthropod group, the Eurypterida. Using these data, we explore the group's transition from a successful, dynamic clade to a stagnant persistent lineage, pinpointing the Devonian as the period during which this evolutionary regime shift occurred. The late Devonian biotic crisis is potentially unique among the "Big Five" mass extinctions in exhibiting a drop in speciation rates rather than an increase in extinction. Our study reveals eurypterids show depressed speciation rates throughout the Devonian but no abnormal peaks in extinction. Loss of morphospace occupation is random across all Paleozoic extinction events; however, differential origination during the Devonian results in a migration and subsequent stagnation of occupied morphospace. This shift appears linked to an ecological transition from euryhaline taxa to freshwater species with low morphological diversity alongside a decrease in endemism. These results demonstrate the importance of the Devonian biotic crisis in reshaping Paleozoic ecosystems. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  1. The altered ecology of Lake Christina: A record of regime shifts, land-use change, and management from a temperate shallow lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theissen, Kevin M.; Hobbs, William O.; Hobbs, Joy M. Ramstack; Zimmer, Kyle D.; Domine, Leah M.; Cotner, James B.; Sugita, Shinya

    2012-01-01

    We collected two sediment cores and modern submerged aquatic plants and phytoplankton from two sub-basins of Lake Christina, a large shallow lake in west-central Minnesota, and used stable isotopic and elemental proxies from sedimentary organic matter to explore questions about the pre- and post-settlement ecology of the lake. The two morphologically distinct sub-basins vary in their sensitivities to internal and external perturbations offering different paleoecological information. The record from the shallower and much larger western sub-basin reflects its strong response to internal processes, while the smaller and deeper eastern sub-basin record primarily reflects external processes including important post-settlement land-use changes in the area. A significant increase in organic carbon accumulation (3–4 times pre-settlement rates) and long-term trends in δ 13 C, organic carbon to nitrogen ratios (C/N), and biogenic silica concentrations shows that primary production has increased and the lake has become increasingly phytoplankton-dominated in the post-settlement period. Significant shifts in δ 15 N values reflect land-clearing and agricultural practices in the region and support the idea that nutrient inputs have played an important role in triggering changes in the trophic status of the lake. Our examination of hydroclimatic data for the region over the last century suggests that natural forcings on lake ecology have diminished in their importance as human management of the lake increased in the mid-1900s. In the last 50 years, three chemical biomanipulations have temporarily shifted the lake from the turbid, algal-dominated condition into a desired clear water regime. Two of our proxies (δ 13 C and BSi) measured from the higher resolution eastern basin record responded significantly to these known regime shifts. -- Highlights: ► We explore the sediment geochemistry from Lake Christina's two distinct sub-basins. ► Our geochemical data show

  2. Resilience, Regime Shifts, and Guided Transition under Climate Change: Examining the Practical Difficulties of Managing Continually Changing Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brenda B. Lin

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Managing terrestrial systems has become increasingly difficult under climate change as unidirectional shifts in climate conditions challenge the resilience of ecosystems to maintain their compositional structure and function. Despite the increased attention of resilience management to guide transformational change, questions remain as to how to apply resilience to manage transitions. Rather than pushing systems across thresholds into alternative states, climate change may create a stepwise progression of unknown transitional states that track changing climate conditions. Because of this uncertainty, we must find ways to guide transitioning systems across climate boundaries towards states that are socially and environmentally desirable. We propose to ease the uncertainty of managing shifting systems by providing an approach to adaptive management that we call guided transition, where socially and environmentally important ecosystem functions are preserved through transitions by considering and maintaining the species and structures needed for the desired functions. Scientifically, it will require a better understanding of the relationships between structure, species composition, and function for specific systems. Managers will also need to identify important functions at the local, regional, and national scale, and to determine how best to transition systems to a desired state based on existing scientific knowledge. Guided transition, therefore, helps guide the process of adaptive management by specifying a function-based management pathway that guides transitions through climatic changes.

  3. Mass Mortality Events in the NW Adriatic Sea: Phase Shift from Slow- to Fast-Growing Organisms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Gioia Di Camillo

    Full Text Available Massive outbreaks are increasing all over the world, which are likely related to climate change. The North Adriatic Sea, a sub-basin of the Mediterranean Sea, is a shallow semi-closed sea receiving high nutrients inputs from important rivers. These inputs sustain the highest productive basin of the Mediterranean Sea. Moreover, this area shows a high number of endemisms probably due to the high diversity of environmental conditions and the conspicuous food availability. Here, we documented two massive mortalities (2009 and 2011 and the pattern of recovery of the affected biocoenoses in the next two years. Results show an impressive and fast shift of the benthic assemblage from a biocoenosis mainly composed of slow-growing and long-lived species to a biocoenosis dominated by fast-growing and short-lived species. The sponge Chondrosia reniformis, one of the key species of this assemblage, which had never been involved in previous massive mortality events in the Mediterranean Sea, reduced its coverage by 70%, and only few small specimens survived. All the damaged sponges, together with many associated organisms, were detached by rough-sea conditions, leaving large bare areas on the rocky wall. Almost three years after the disease, the survived specimens of C. reniformis did not increase significantly in size, while the bare areas were colonized by fast-growing species such as stoloniferans, hydrozoans, mussels, algae, serpulids and bryozoans. Cnidarians were more resilient than massive sponges since they quickly recovered in less than one month. In the study area, the last two outbreaks caused a reduction in the filtration efficiency of the local benthic assemblage by over 60%. The analysis of the times series of wave heights and temperature revealed that the conditions in summer 2011 were not so extreme as to justify severe mass mortality, suggesting the occurrence of other factors which triggered the disease. The long-term observations of a

  4. Two Regimes of Bandgap Red Shift and Partial Ambient Retention in Pressure-Treated Two-Dimensional Perovskites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Gang [Center for High Pressure Science and Technology Advanced Research, Shanghai 201203, China; Geophysical Laboratory, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, DC 20015, United States; Kong, Lingping [Center for High Pressure Science and Technology Advanced Research, Shanghai 201203, China; Geophysical Laboratory, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, DC 20015, United States; Guo, Peijun [Center; Stoumpos, Constantinos C. [Department; Hu, Qingyang [Center for High Pressure Science and Technology Advanced Research, Shanghai 201203, China; Liu, Zhenxian [Geophysical Laboratory, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, DC 20015, United States; Cai, Zhonghou [Advanced; Gosztola, David J. [Center; Mao, Ho-kwang [Center for High Pressure Science and Technology Advanced Research, Shanghai 201203, China; Geophysical Laboratory, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, DC 20015, United States; Kanatzidis, Mercouri G. [Department; Schaller, Richard D. [Center; Department

    2017-10-09

    The discovery of elevated environmental stability in two-dimensional (2D) Ruddlesden–Popper hybrid perovskites represents a significant advance in low-cost, high-efficiency light absorbers. In comparison to 3D counterparts, 2D perovskites of organo-lead-halides exhibit wider, quantum-confined optical bandgaps that reduce the wavelength range of light absorption. Here, we characterize the structural and optical properties of 2D hybrid perovskites as a function of hydrostatic pressure. We observe bandgap narrowing with pressure of 633 meV that is partially retained following pressure release due to an atomic reconfiguration mechanism. We identify two distinct regimes of compression dominated by the softer organic and less compressible inorganic sublattices. Our findings, which also include PL enhancement, correlate well with density functional theory calculations and establish structure–property relationships at the atomic scale. These concepts can be expanded into other hybrid perovskites and suggest that pressure/strain processing could offer a new route to improved materials-by-design in applications.

  5. ENSO regimes and the late 1970's climate shift: The role of synoptic weather and South Pacific ocean spiciness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Kane, Terence J.; Matear, Richard J.; Chamberlain, Matthew A.; Oke, Peter R.

    2014-01-01

    South Pacific subtropical density compensated temperature and salinity (spiciness) anomalies are known to be associated with decadal equatorial variability, however, the mechanisms by which such disturbances are generated, advect and the degree to which they modulate the equatorial thermocline remains controversial. During the late 1970's a climate regime transition preceded a period of strong and sustained El Nino events. Using an ocean general circulation model forced by the constituent mechanical and thermodynamic components of the reanalysed atmosphere we show that the late 1970's transition coincided with the arrival of a large-scale, subsurface cold and fresh water anomaly in the central tropical Pacific. An ocean reanalysis for the period 1990–2007 that assimilates subsurface Argo, XBT and CTD data, reveals that disturbances occur due to the subduction of negative surface salinity anomalies from near 30° S, 100° W which are advected along the σ=25–26 kgm −3 isopycnal surfaces. These anomalies take, on average, seven years to reach the central equatorial Pacific where they may substantially perturb the thermocline before the remnants ultimately ventilate in the region of the western Pacific warm pool. Positive (warm–salty) disturbances, known to occur due to late winter diapycnal mixing and isopycnal outcropping, arise due to both subduction of subtropical mode waters and subsurface injection. On reaching the equatorial band (10° S–0° S) these disturbances tend to deepen the thermocline reducing the model's ENSO. In contrast the emergence of negative (cold–fresh) disturbances at the equator are associated with a shoaling of the thermocline and El Nino events. Process studies are used to show that the generation and advection of anomalous density compensated thermocline disturbances critically depend on stochastic forcing of the intrinsic ocean by weather. We further show that in the absence of the inter-annual component of the atmosphere

  6. A Model-Based Approach to Infer Shifts in Regional Fire Regimes Over Time Using Sediment Charcoal Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; Hooten, M.; Higuera, P. E.; Marlon, J. R.; McLachlan, J. S.; Kelly, R.

    2016-12-01

    deposition rate exhibits changes over time coincident with major climatic and vegetation shifts over the past 10,000 years. Ongoing work will use the regional charcoal deposition rate to estimate changes in biomass burned as a function of climate variability and regional vegetation pattern.

  7. Shifts in nursery habitat utilization by 0-group plaice in the western Dutch Wadden Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Freitas, Vânia; Witte, Johannes I.J.; Tulp, Ingrid; Veer, van der Henk W.

    2016-01-01

    Since the mid-1980s major changes in spatiotemporal patterns of distribution of juvenile plaice have occurred in the Wadden Sea. Large juvenile (I- and II-group) plaice have almost completely disappeared from the intertidal flats in spring and summer and are no longer found in subtidal and tidal

  8. Shifts in nursery habitat utilization by 0-group plaice in the western Dutch Wadden Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Freitas, V.; Witte, J.IJ.; Tulp, I.; van der Veer, H.W.

    2016-01-01

    Since the mid-1980s major changes in spatiotemporal patterns of distribution of juvenile plaice have occurred in the Wadden Sea. Large juvenile (I- and II-group) plaice have almost completely disappeared from the intertidal flats in spring and summer and are no longer found in subtidal and tidal

  9. Shifts in North Sea forage fish productivity and potential fisheries yield

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clausen, Lotte W.; Rindorf, Anna; Deurs, van Mikael; Dickey-Collas, Mark; Hintzen, Niels T.

    2018-01-01

    1. Forage fish populations support large scale fisheries and are key components of marine ecosystems across the world, linking secondary production to higher trophic levels. While climate-induced changes in the North Sea zooplankton community are described and documented in literature, the

  10. Carbon sources and trophic relationships of ice seals during recent environmental shifts in the Bering Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shiway W; Springer, Alan M; Budge, Suzanne M; Horstmann, Lara; Quakenbush, Lori T; Wooller, Matthew J

    2016-04-01

    Dramatic multiyear fluctuations in water temperature and seasonal sea ice extent and duration across the Bering-Chukchi continental shelf have occurred in this century, raising a pressing ecological question: Do such environmental changes alter marine production processes linking primary producers to upper trophic-level predators? We examined this question by comparing the blubber fatty acid (FA) composition and stable carbon isotope ratios of individual FA (δ¹³CFA) of adult ringed seals (Pusa hispida), bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus), spotted seals (Phoca largha), and ribbon seals (Histriophoca fasciata), collectively known as "ice seals," sampled during an anomalously warm, low sea ice period in 2002-2005 in the Bering Sea and a subsequent cold, high sea ice period in 2007-2010. δ¹³C(FA) values, used to estimate the contribution to seals of carbon derived from sea ice algae (sympagic production) relative to that derived from water column phytoplankton (pelagic production), indicated that during the cold period, sympagic production accounted for 62-80% of the FA in the blubber of bearded seals, 51-62% in spotted seals, and 21-60% in ringed seals. Moreover, the δ¹³CFA values of bearded seals indicated a greater incorporation of sympagic FAs during the cold period than the warm period. This result provides the first empirical evidence of an ecosystem-scale effect of a putative change in sympagic production in the Western Arctic. The FA composition of ice seals showed clear evidence of resource partitioning among ringed, bearded, and spotted seals, and little niche separation between spotted and ribbon seals, which is consistent with previous studies. Despite interannual variability, the FA composition of ringed and bearded seals showed little evidence of differences in diet between the warm and cold periods. The findings that sympagic production contributes significantly to food webs supporting ice seals, and that the contribution apparently is less in

  11. Shifts in North Sea forage fish productivity and potential fisheries yield

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Worsøe Clausen, Lotte; Rindorf, Anna; van Deurs, Mikael

    2018-01-01

    productivity. Furthermore, from an ecosystem-based fisheries management perspective, a link between functional complementarity and productivity, indicates that ecosystem resilience may decline with productivity. Based on this, we advise that system productivity, perhaps monitored as forage fish growth, becomes......1. Forage fish populations support large scale fisheries and are key components of marine ecosystems across the world, linking secondary production to higher trophic levels. While climate-induced changes in the North Sea zooplankton community are described and documented in literature......, the associated bottom-up effects and consequences for fisheries remain largely unidentified. 2. We investigated the temporal development in forage fish productivity and the associated influence on fisheries yield of herring, sprat, Norway pout and sandeel in the North Sea. Using principal component analysis, we...

  12. Rapid shifts in catch composition in the artisanal Red Sea reef fisheries of Eritrea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsehaye, I.W.; Machiels, M.A.M.; Nagelkerke, L.A.J.

    2007-01-01

    Shifts in catch composition were registered in the Eritrean artisanal fisheries, which were launched into a renewed development after the end of the independence war in 1991. Our analysis of catch and effort data showed that total fishing effort as well as total annual catch increased more than

  13. Air-sea interaction regimes in the sub-Antarctic Southern Ocean and Antarctic marginal ice zone revealed by icebreaker measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lisan; Jin, Xiangze; Schulz, Eric W.; Josey, Simon A.

    2017-08-01

    This study analyzed shipboard air-sea measurements acquired by the icebreaker Aurora Australis during its off-winter operation in December 2010 to May 2012. Mean conditions over 7 months (October-April) were compiled from a total of 22 ship tracks. The icebreaker traversed the water between Hobart, Tasmania, and the Antarctic continent, providing valuable in situ insight into two dynamically important, yet poorly sampled, regimes: the sub-Antarctic Southern Ocean and the Antarctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) in the Indian Ocean sector. The transition from the open water to the ice-covered surface creates sharp changes in albedo, surface roughness, and air temperature, leading to consequential effects on air-sea variables and fluxes. Major effort was made to estimate the air-sea fluxes in the MIZ using the bulk flux algorithms that are tuned specifically for the sea-ice effects, while computing the fluxes over the sub-Antarctic section using the COARE3.0 algorithm. The study evidenced strong sea-ice modulations on winds, with the southerly airflow showing deceleration (convergence) in the MIZ and acceleration (divergence) when moving away from the MIZ. Marked seasonal variations in heat exchanges between the atmosphere and the ice margin were noted. The monotonic increase in turbulent latent and sensible heat fluxes after summer turned the MIZ quickly into a heat loss regime, while at the same time the sub-Antarctic surface water continued to receive heat from the atmosphere. The drastic increase in turbulent heat loss in the MIZ contrasted sharply to the nonsignificant and seasonally invariant turbulent heat loss over the sub-Antarctic open water.Plain Language SummaryThe icebreaker Aurora Australis is a research and supply vessel that is regularly chartered by the Australian Antarctic Division during the southern summer to operate in waters between Hobart, Tasmania, and Antarctica. The vessel serves as the main lifeline to three permanent research stations on the

  14. The influence of different dietary energy content and feeding regimes on growth and feed utilization of European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax, L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pier Paolo Gatta

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The growing importance of European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax in aquaculture underlines the need to optimize the feeding strategy for this fish species. The aim of the present study was to assess the effect of dietary energy content and feeding regime on growth performance, feed uti- lization and feeding costs for European sea bass. Seven hundreds and forthyfourfish(averageinitial forthyfourfish(averageinitial four fish ( average initial body weight 68g were randomly allocated into twelve tanks 800 l in a closed recirculation system (water temperature: 22°C; dissolved oxygen ≥90% of saturation. Three isoproteic (47% crude protein extruded diets were formulated with different lipid levels i.e. 16% (diet D16, 24% (diet D24 and 32% (diet D32 and each diet was fed at two different feeding regimes (satiation and 80% satiation accord- ing to a bifactorial experimental design. Feed intake (FI was recorded daily. After 77 days, fish were bulk weighed and growth, SGR and FCR were calculated. Feedingregimesaffectedall theanalysed Feeding regimes affected all the analysed parameters (P<0.05, whereas diet influenced only FCR, FI, protein and lipid intake and the economic efficiency ratio (EER. Fish fed the lowest energy content diet (D16 to satiation resulted in the highest feed intake, a FCR similar to that of fish fed diets D24 and D32 and in the lowest EER.

  15. Lead-lag cross-sectional structure and detection of correlated anticorrelated regime shifts: Application to the volatilities of inflation and economic growth rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier

    2007-07-01

    We have recently introduced the “thermal optimal path” (TOP) method to investigate the real-time lead-lag structure between two time series. The TOP method consists in searching for a robust noise-averaged optimal path of the distance matrix along which the two time series have the greatest similarity. Here, we generalize the TOP method by introducing a more general definition of distance which takes into account possible regime shifts between positive and negative correlations. This generalization to track possible changes of correlation signs is able to identify possible transitions from one convention (or consensus) to another. Numerical simulations on synthetic time series verify that the new TOP method performs as expected even in the presence of substantial noise. We then apply it to investigate changes of convention in the dependence structure between the historical volatilities of the USA inflation rate and economic growth rate. Several measures show that the new TOP method significantly outperforms standard cross-correlation methods.

  16. Influence of seasonal variations in sea level on the salinity regime of a coastal groundwater-fed wetland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Cameron; Harrington, Glenn A

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal variations in sea level are often neglected in studies of coastal aquifers; however, they may have important controls on processes such as submarine groundwater discharge, sea water intrusion, and groundwater discharge to coastal springs and wetlands. We investigated seasonal variations in salinity in a groundwater-fed coastal wetland (the RAMSAR listed Piccaninnie Ponds in South Australia) and found that salinity peaked during winter, coincident with seasonal sea level peaks. Closer examination of salinity variations revealed a relationship between changes in sea level and changes in salinity, indicating that sea level-driven movement of the fresh water-sea water interface influences the salinity of discharging groundwater in the wetland. Moreover, the seasonal control of sea level on wetland salinity seems to override the influence of seasonal recharge. A two-dimensional variable density model helped validate this conceptual model of coastal groundwater discharge by showing that fluctuations in groundwater salinity in a coastal aquifer can be driven by a seasonal coastal boundary condition in spite of seasonal recharge/discharge dynamics. Because seasonal variations in sea level and coastal wetlands are ubiquitous throughout the world, these findings have important implications for monitoring and management of coastal groundwater-dependent ecosystems. © 2014, National Ground Water Association.

  17. Pyrosequencing revealed shifts of prokaryotic communities between healthy and disease-like tissues of the Red Sea sponge Crella cyathophora

    KAUST Repository

    Gao, Zhao-Ming

    2015-06-11

    Sponge diseases have been widely reported, yet the causal factors and major pathogenic microbes remain elusive. In this study, two individuals of the sponge Crella cyathophora in total that showed similar disease-like characteristics were collected from two different locations along the Red Sea coast separated by more than 30 kilometers. The disease-like parts of the two individuals were both covered by green surfaces, and the body size was much smaller compared with adjacent healthy regions. Here, using high-throughput pyrosequencing technology, we investigated the prokaryotic communities in healthy and disease-like sponge tissues as well as adjacent seawater. Microbes in healthy tissues belonged mainly to the Proteobacteria, Cyanobacteria and Bacteroidetes, and were much more diverse at the phylum level than reported previously. Interestingly, the disease-like tissues from the two sponge individuals underwent shifts of prokaryotic communities and were both enriched with a novel clade affiliated with the phylum Verrucomicrobia, implying its intimate connection with the disease-like Red Sea sponge C. cyathophora. Enrichment of the phylum Verrucomicrobia was also considered to be correlated with the presence of algae assemblages forming the green surface of the disease-like sponge tissues. This finding represents an interesting case of sponge disease and is valuable for further study.

  18. Pyrosequencing reveals the microbial communities in the Red Sea sponge Carteriospongia foliascens and their impressive shifts in abnormal tissues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Zhao-Ming; Wang, Yong; Lee, On On; Tian, Ren-Mao; Wong, Yue Him; Bougouffa, Salim; Batang, Zenon; Al-Suwailem, Abdulaziz; Lafi, Feras F; Bajic, Vladimir B; Qian, Pei-Yuan

    2014-10-01

    Abnormality and disease in sponges have been widely reported, yet how sponge-associated microbes respond correspondingly remains inconclusive. Here, individuals of the sponge Carteriospongia foliascens under abnormal status were collected from the Rabigh Bay along the Red Sea coast. Microbial communities in both healthy and abnormal sponge tissues and adjacent seawater were compared to check the influences of these abnormalities on sponge-associated microbes. In healthy tissues, we revealed low microbial diversity with less than 100 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) per sample. Cyanobacteria, affiliated mainly with the sponge-specific species "Candidatus Synechococcus spongiarum," were the dominant bacteria, followed by Bacteroidetes and Proteobacteria. Intraspecies dynamics of microbial communities in healthy tissues were observed among sponge individuals, and potential anoxygenic phototrophic bacteria were found. In comparison with healthy tissues and the adjacent seawater, abnormal tissues showed dramatic increase in microbial diversity and decrease in the abundance of sponge-specific microbial clusters. The dominated cyanobacterial species Candidatus Synechococcus spongiarum decreased and shifted to unspecific cyanobacterial clades. OTUs that showed high similarity to sequences derived from diseased corals, such as Leptolyngbya sp., were found to be abundant in abnormal tissues. Heterotrophic Planctomycetes were also specifically enriched in abnormal tissues. Overall, we revealed the microbial communities of the cyanobacteria-rich sponge, C. foliascens, and their impressive shifts under abnormality.

  19. Pyrosequencing Reveals the Microbial Communities in the Red Sea Sponge Carteriospongia foliascens and Their Impressive Shifts in Abnormal Tissues

    KAUST Repository

    Gao, Zhaoming

    2014-04-24

    Abnormality and disease in sponges have been widely reported, yet how sponge-associated microbes respond correspondingly remains inconclusive. Here, individuals of the sponge Carteriospongia foliascens under abnormal status were collected from the Rabigh Bay along the Red Sea coast. Microbial communities in both healthy and abnormal sponge tissues and adjacent seawater were compared to check the influences of these abnormalities on sponge-associated microbes. In healthy tissues, we revealed low microbial diversity with less than 100 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) per sample. Cyanobacteria, affiliated mainly with the sponge-specific species “Candidatus Synechococcus spongiarum,” were the dominant bacteria, followed by Bacteroidetes and Proteobacteria. Intraspecies dynamics of microbial communities in healthy tissues were observed among sponge individuals, and potential anoxygenic phototrophic bacteria were found. In comparison with healthy tissues and the adjacent seawater, abnormal tissues showed dramatic increase in microbial diversity and decrease in the abundance of sponge-specific microbial clusters. The dominated cyanobacterial species Candidatus Synechococcus spongiarum decreased and shifted to unspecific cyanobacterial clades. OTUs that showed high similarity to sequences derived from diseased corals, such as Leptolyngbya sp., were found to be abundant in abnormal tissues. Heterotrophic Planctomycetes were also specifically enriched in abnormal tissues. Overall, we revealed the microbial communities of the cyanobacteria-rich sponge, C. foliascens, and their impressive shifts under abnormality.

  20. Temporal shift of sea turtle nest sites in an eroding barrier island beach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisaki, Ikuko; Lamont, Margaret M.; Carthy, Raymond R.

    2018-01-01

    Shoreline changes affect functionality of a sandy beach as a wildlife habitat and coastal erosion is among the primary causes of the changes. We examined temporal shifts in locations where loggerheads placed nests in relation to coastal erosion along a barrier island beach in the northern Gulf of Mexico. We first confirmed consistency in long-term (1855–2001), short-term (1976–2001), and more recent (2002–2012) shoreline change rates in two adjacent beach sections, one historically eroding (west beach) and the other accreting (east beach). The mean annual shoreline change rate in the two sections was significantly different in all time periods. The recent (1998–2012) mean change rate was −10.9 ± 9.9 m/year in the west beach and −2.8 ± 4.9 m/year in the east beach, which resulted in the loss of about 70% and 30% of area in the west and east beaches, respectively. Loggerheads nested significantly closer to the vegetation line in 2012 than in 2002 in the west beach but the difference between the two time periods was not significant in the east beach. However, the distance from nests to the vegetation line from 2002 to 2014 was significantly reduced annually in both beaches; on average, loggerheads nested closer to the vegetation line by 9 m/year in the west beach and 5.8 m/year in the east beach. The observed shoreline change rate and corresponding shift of nest placement sites, combined with the forecasted future beach loss, highlighted the importance of addressing the issue of beach erosion to conserve sandy beach habitats.

  1. Links between the recruitment success of northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius L.) and a regime shift on the NE Atlantic continental shelf

    KAUST Repository

    Goikoetxea, Nerea; Irigoien, Xabier

    2013-01-01

    variables in the North Sea also affected the Northeast Atlantic shelf oceanography. Hake recruitment success as well as parameters such as the sea surface temperature, wind patterns and copepod abundance changed significantly at the end of the 1980s

  2. Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Dynamics in Relation to Shifting Inundation and Fire Regimes: Disentangling Environmental Variability from Land Management Decisions in a Southern African Transboundary Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narcisa G. Pricope

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Increasing temperatures and wildfire incidence and decreasing precipitation and river runoff in southern Africa are predicted to have a variety of impacts on the ecology, structure, and function of semi-arid savannas, which provide innumerable livelihood resources for millions of people. This paper builds on previous research that documents change in inundation and fire regimes in the Chobe River Basin (CRB in Namibia and Botswana and proposes to demonstrate a methodology that can be applied to disentangle the effect of environmental variability from land management decisions on changing and ecologically sensitive savanna ecosystems in transboundary contexts. We characterized the temporal dynamics (1985–2010 of vegetation productivity for the CRB using proxies of vegetation productivity and examine the relative importance of shifts in flooding and fire patterns to vegetation dynamics and effects of the association of phases of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO on vegetation greenness. Our results indicate that vegetation in these semi-arid environments is highly responsive to climatic fluctuations and the long-term trend is one of increased but heterogeneous vegetation cover. The increased cover and heterogeneity during the growing season is especially noted in communally-managed areas of Botswana where long-term fire suppression has been instituted, in contrast to communal areas in Namibia where heterogeneity in vegetation cover is mostly increasing primarily outside of the growing season and may correspond to mosaic early dry season burns. Observed patterns of increased vegetation productivity and heterogeneity may relate to more frequent and intense burning and higher spatial variability in surface water availability from both precipitation and regional inundation patterns, with implications for global environmental change and adaptation in subsistence-based communities.

  3. Constraining Aerosol Optical Models Using Ground-Based, Collocated Particle Size and Mass Measurements in Variable Air Mass Regimes During the 7-SEAS/Dongsha Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Shaun W.; Hansell, Richard A.; Chow, Judith C.; Tsay, Si-Chee; Wang, Sheng-Hsiang; Ji, Qiang; Li, Can; Watson, John G.; Khlystov, Andrey

    2012-01-01

    During the spring of 2010, NASA Goddard's COMMIT ground-based mobile laboratory was stationed on Dongsha Island off the southwest coast of Taiwan, in preparation for the upcoming 2012 7-SEAS field campaign. The measurement period offered a unique opportunity for conducting detailed investigations of the optical properties of aerosols associated with different air mass regimes including background maritime and those contaminated by anthropogenic air pollution and mineral dust. What appears to be the first time for this region, a shortwave optical closure experiment for both scattering and absorption was attempted over a 12-day period during which aerosols exhibited the most change. Constraints to the optical model included combined SMPS and APS number concentration data for a continuum of fine and coarse-mode particle sizes up to PM2.5. We also take advantage of an IMPROVE chemical sampler to help constrain aerosol composition and mass partitioning of key elemental species including sea-salt, particulate organic matter, soil, non sea-salt sulphate, nitrate, and elemental carbon. Our results demonstrate that the observed aerosol scattering and absorption for these diverse air masses are reasonably captured by the model, where peak aerosol events and transitions between key aerosols types are evident. Signatures of heavy polluted aerosol composed mostly of ammonium and non sea-salt sulphate mixed with some dust with transitions to background sea-salt conditions are apparent in the absorption data, which is particularly reassuring owing to the large variability in the imaginary component of the refractive indices. Extinctive features at significantly smaller time scales than the one-day sample period of IMPROVE are more difficult to reproduce, as this requires further knowledge concerning the source apportionment of major chemical components in the model. Consistency between the measured and modeled optical parameters serves as an important link for advancing remote

  4. Mean sea level and change in the hydrological regime off Loviisa power plant around the year 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maelkki, P.; Voipio, A.

    1985-03-01

    On the request of Imatran Voima Oy, the Institute of Marine Research has made an estimate on the future sea level off Loviisa Power Plant. The estimate is based on observationsof mean sea level in the Gulf of Finland. The stations used are Helsinki (observations since 1904) and Hamina (observations since 1928). A litterature review was made in order to estimate impact of climate change on environmental conditions. The results presented are mainly based on various estimates of meterorological Global Circulation Models (GCM). Their usefulness in the connection is briefly discussed

  5. Dispersal and sink pathways of suspended particulate matter from the orographically enhanced SWM regime of the SE Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chauhan, O.S.; Kader, U.S.A.; Vaidya, P.; Rajawat, A.S.; Ajai; Ramakrishnan, R.

    during NE monsoon. Deep-Sea Research part II, 52(14-15), pp. 2018-2030. doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2005.05.012 CHAUHAN, O. S., VOGELSANG, E., BASAVAIAH, N. and KADER, U. S. A., 2010, Reconstruction of the variability of the southwest monsoon during the past...

  6. The sedimentary regime around northern Sylt, South-eastern North Sea, based on shallow seismic (sparker and Chirp III) information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boldreel, Lars Ole; Kuijpers, Antoon; Madsen, Emil B

    2010-01-01

    on a workstation. Interpretation of the data reveals bedforms, with their internal structures representative of the “present sedimentation regime”. In addition, the sparker data show 2-3 well-defined deeper regional reflectors and pronounced erosion channels at greater subbottom depth. Using various bedform....... The sparker seismic and Chirp III data show that the processes responsible for the bedforms have been persistent throughout the Holocene. Based on the study, a model for the current and sedimentation regime is proposed....

  7. The stretching amplitude and thermal regime of the lithosphere in the nonvolcanic passive margin of Antarctica in the Mawson Sea region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galushkin, Yu. I.; Leitchenkov, G. L.; Guseva, Yu. B.; Dubinin, E. P.

    2018-01-01

    The burial history and thermal evolution of the lithosphere within the passive nonvolcanic Antarctic margin in the region of the Mawson Sea are numerically reconstructed for the margin areas along the seismic profile 5909 with the use of the GALO basin modeling system. The amplitudes of the lithosphere stretching at the different stages of continental rifting which took place from 160 to 90 Ma ago are calculated from the geophysical estimates of the thickness of the consolidated crust and the tectonic analysis of the variations in the thickness of the sedimentary cover and sea depths during the evolution of the basin. It is hypothesized that the formation of the recent sedimentary section sequence in the studied region of the Antarctic margin began 140 Ma ago on a basement that was thinned by a factor of 1.6 to 4.5 during the first episode of margin stretching (160-140 Ma) under a fairly high heat flux. The reconstruction of the thermal regime of the lithosphere has shown that the mantle rocks could occur within the temperature interval of serpentinization and simultaneously within the time interval of lithospheric stretching (-160 serpentinization could take place in these areas as in the other margin segments at the stage of presedimentation ultra slow basement stretching.

  8. Arctic circulation regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L

    2015-10-13

    Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. © 2015 The Authors.

  9. Shifts in Ross Sea food web structure as indicated by δ15N and δ13C values of fossil Antarctic seals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leopold, A.; Brault, E.; McMahon, K.

    2013-12-01

    As climate change continues to mount, there is a growing need for understanding its effects on biological-physical interactions of marine ecosystems. Assessing the effects of anthropogenic activities on the coastal marine ecosystem involves understanding the underlying mechanisms driving these changes as well as establishing baselines of the natural system. Preliminary findings have indicated shifts in bulk carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) isotopic values of southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) samples, collected in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica in the Ross Sea region, over approximately the last 7,000 years. These shifts could result from 1) seals changing their foraging location and/or diet over this time, 2) climate change-induced shifts in the biogeochemistry at the base of the food web, or 3) some combination of both processes. We explored the patterns of long-term change in Ross Sea food web structure by examining the stable isotope values of three top predators in this system, Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii), leopard seals (Hydrurga leptonyx), and crabeater seals (Lobodon carcinophagus). Fossil seal samples were collected in the Dry Valleys during the austral summer of 2012/13 and then analyzed for bulk C and N isotopes via an elemental analyzer/isotope-ratio mass spectrometer (EA/IRMS). Our initial findings indicate that C isotopic values of fossil seal samples from Weddell, leopard, and crabeater seals were more enriched than isotopic values of modern seals of the same species (e.g., δ13C = -22.79 × 0.92 ‰ and -26.71 × 0.50 ‰ for fossil and modern crabeater seals, respectively). Given the relatively consistent diet of crabeater seals, these findings suggest a shift in baseline food web structure occurred over the last 10,000 years, either through changes in foraging location or local shifts in biogeochemistry. For all species, N isotopic values are widely variable (e.g., 7.28 to 16.0 δ15N ‰ for the Weddell seal), which may be a result of

  10. Transient shifts in bacterial communities associated with the temperate gorgonian Paramuricea clavata in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie La Rivière

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Bacterial communities that are associated with tropical reef-forming corals are being increasingly recognized for their role in host physiology and health. However, little is known about the microbial diversity of the communities associated with temperate gorgonian corals, even though these communities are key structural components of the ecosystem. In the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea, gorgonians undergo recurrent mass mortalities, but the potential relationship between these events and the structure of the associated bacterial communities remains unexplored. Because microbial assemblages may contribute to the overall health and disease resistance of their host, a detailed baseline of the associated bacterial diversity is required to better understand the functioning of the gorgonian holobiont. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The bacterial diversity associated with the gorgonian Paramuricea clavata was determined using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis, terminal-restriction fragment length polymorphism and the construction of clone libraries of the bacterial 16S ribosomal DNA. Three study sites were monitored for 4 years to assess the variability of communities associated with healthy colonies. Bacterial assemblages were highly dominated by one Hahellaceae-related ribotype and exhibited low diversity. While this pattern was mostly conserved through space and time, in summer 2007, a deep shift in microbiota structure toward increased bacterial diversity and the transient disappearance of Hahellaceae was observed. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This is the first spatiotemporal study to investigate the bacterial diversity associated with a temperate shallow gorgonian. Our data revealed an established relationship between P. clavata and a specific bacterial group within the Oceanospirillales. These results suggest a potential symbiotic role of Hahellaceae in the host-microbe association, as recently suggested for tropical corals

  11. Identificando mudanças de regimes sistêmicos em processos econômicos: um procedimento baseado na abordagem de dinâmica de sistemas Identifying systemic regime shifts in economic processes: a procedure based on the system dynamics approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Newton Paulo Bueno

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A tese deste trabalho é que as técnicas mais sofisticadas atualmente utilizadas pelos economistas para fazer previsões (métodos não estruturais de previsão, em geral, e modelos de detecção de mudanças de regime, em particular não parecem realmente muito eficazes em prever mudanças radicais de regime como a que ocorreu na economia mundial recentemente. Assim, para aumentar seu grau de acurácia, parece razoável imaginar que tais técnicas devam ser complementadas por abordagens mais holísticas. O objetivo geral deste trabalho é mostrar que a metodologia de dinâmica de sistemas (system dynamics, que permite identificar os ciclos de feedback que comandam a dinâmica de sistemas complexos, parece estar especialmente bem-equipada para se tornar uma dessas abordagens complementares. Pretende-se, especificamente, apresentar um algoritmo sistêmico para identificar processos de mudança de regime como os que ocorrem quando uma economia, após anos de expansão continuada, sofre os efeitos da explosão de uma bolha financeira, como ocorreu recentemente.This paper argues that the sophisticated techniques presently used by economists to forecast macroeconomic variables behavior (non-structural forecasting methods, in general, and regime-switching models, in particular do not seem much effective for anticipating radical regime shifts as recently happened in the world economy. Thus, in order to improve their accuracy, it seems that they should be complemented by more holistic approaches. The general purpose of the paper is to show that the system dynamics methodology, which allows identifying the critical feedback loops that drive complex systems' dynamics, seems to be especially fitted to be one of those complementary approaches. To reach that goal, we present a systemic algorithm which allows identifying regime shift processes as the ones that take place when an economy is hit by the effects of a financial bubble burst.

  12. Ecological regime shifts and changes of lake ecosystem service in a shallow Yangtze lake (Taibai Lake, China) over the past 150 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, X.; Xu, M.; Yang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Shallow lakes provide a range of ecosystem services such as water supply, biodiversity, aquaculture, tourism, shipping and flood regulation. Over recent decades, many lakes have become severely deteriorated due to a coupled natural and human disturbance. Given the limited monitoring records, however, we still have little knowledge on how, when and why those lake experienced ecological status shifts, and how the lake ecosystem service changed. Paleolimnological techniques were widely used in understanding the historical environmental and ecological changes. Here, we chose a typical eutrophic shallow lake, Taibai Lake, and acquired geochemistry proxies, grain size, diatom, cladocera and chironomid from a 210Pb and 137Cs dated sediment core. Document records and monitoring data are also included as important marks of social and environmental change. A T-test based algorithm of STARS reveal at least two ecological shifts, respectively in the 1960s and the 1990s. The sudden shift in the 1960s is supposed to be influenced by a dam and sluice construction in the 1950s and another shift in the 1990s should be a critical transition due to the alternation of ecosystem structure for higher fishery production. Correspondingly, lake ecosystem service (LES) also experienced significant changes. Prior to 1930s, different types of LES kept relatively stable with low values. With the dam construction in the 1960s, the changed hydrological condition led to gradual increases in both regulation and provision service. However, with much effort on fishery and reclamation, the regulation service of the lake decreased, exhibiting a tradeoff among LES. After 1990s, with intense aquaculture, most types of LSE suffered a further decrease. The long-term records exhibited that ecosystem services in primary productivity and biodiversity maintenance increased (synergies) whereas services in water-purification and climate regulating decreased significantly (tradeoffs) since 1950s, when local

  13. The role of the sedimentary regime in shaping the distribution of subtidal sandbank environments and the associated meiofaunal nematode communities: an example from the southern North Sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michaela Schratzberger

    Full Text Available We combined sediment and faunal data to explore the role of the sedimentary regime in shaping the distribution of subtidal sandbank environments and the associated meiofaunal nematode communities at Broken Bank and Swarte Bank, in the southern North Sea. A variety of sediment transport processes occur in the area, differing in the frequency and magnitude of sediment mobility, and the continuum between erosion, translation and sediment accumulation. The seabed contained a variety of bedforms, including longitudinal furrows, and small to very large sandwaves. The bed sediments were dominated by fine and medium sands, with admixtures of silt and gravel. Based on sedimentary bedforms and grain size analysis, a total of 11 sedimentary facies were delineated, of which 8 were analysed in detail for their relationships with the meiofauna. The sedimentary facies fell clearly into groups of facies, respectively representing high, high-moderate and moderate, and episodic sediment mobility. For those sedimentary facies where daily movement of sediments and bedforms occurred ('high' sediment mobility, the resulting spatially homogeneous environments were dominated by an impoverished nematode community comprising small deposit feeders and large predators. Resistance to sediment movement and the ability to exploit alternative food sources were prominent functional features of the successful colonisers. Those facies characterised by relatively infrequent sediment mobility ('episodic' and 'high-moderate and moderate' sediment mobility comprised a heterogeneous suite of benthic habitats, containing taxonomically and functionally diverse assemblages of nematodes of various sizes, feeding types and reproductive potential. Faunal distribution patterns here indicated trade-offs between the resistance to sediment movement, environmental tolerance and competitive abilities. Our focus on diverse assemblages of organisms with high turnover times, inhabiting highly

  14. The Role of the Sedimentary Regime in Shaping the Distribution of Subtidal Sandbank Environments and the Associated Meiofaunal Nematode Communities: An Example from the Southern North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schratzberger, Michaela; Larcombe, Piers

    2014-01-01

    We combined sediment and faunal data to explore the role of the sedimentary regime in shaping the distribution of subtidal sandbank environments and the associated meiofaunal nematode communities at Broken Bank and Swarte Bank, in the southern North Sea. A variety of sediment transport processes occur in the area, differing in the frequency and magnitude of sediment mobility, and the continuum between erosion, translation and sediment accumulation. The seabed contained a variety of bedforms, including longitudinal furrows, and small to very large sandwaves. The bed sediments were dominated by fine and medium sands, with admixtures of silt and gravel. Based on sedimentary bedforms and grain size analysis, a total of 11 sedimentary facies were delineated, of which 8 were analysed in detail for their relationships with the meiofauna. The sedimentary facies fell clearly into groups of facies, respectively representing high, high-moderate and moderate, and episodic sediment mobility. For those sedimentary facies where daily movement of sediments and bedforms occurred (‘high’ sediment mobility), the resulting spatially homogeneous environments were dominated by an impoverished nematode community comprising small deposit feeders and large predators. Resistance to sediment movement and the ability to exploit alternative food sources were prominent functional features of the successful colonisers. Those facies characterised by relatively infrequent sediment mobility (‘episodic’ and ‘high-moderate and moderate’ sediment mobility) comprised a heterogeneous suite of benthic habitats, containing taxonomically and functionally diverse assemblages of nematodes of various sizes, feeding types and reproductive potential. Faunal distribution patterns here indicated trade-offs between the resistance to sediment movement, environmental tolerance and competitive abilities. Our focus on diverse assemblages of organisms with high turnover times, inhabiting highly dynamic

  15. Historical shifts in oxygenation regime as recorded in the laminated sediments of lake Montcortès (Central Pyrenees) support hypoxia as a continental-scale phenomenon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vegas-Vilarrúbia, Teresa; Corella, Juan Pablo; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Buchaca, Teresa; Trapote, M Carmen; López, Pilar; Sigró, Javier; Rull, Valentí

    2018-01-15

    Recent expansion of anoxia has become a global issue and there is potential for worsening under global warming. At the same time, obtaining proper long-term instrumental oxygen records is difficult, thus reducing the possibility of recording long-term changes in oxygen shifts that can be related with climate or human influence. Varved lake sediments provide the better time frame to study this phenomenon at high resolution. We tracked the oxic/anoxic shifts of the varved Lake Montcortès since 1500CE, and tried to recognise anthropogenic and climatic influences combining biological and geochemical proxies. Four main scenarios emerged: 1) years with abrupt sediment inputs (A); 2) years with outstanding mixing and oxygenation of the water column (B); 3) years with strong stratification, anoxia, intense sulfur bacterial activity and increased biomass production (C); 4) years with stratification and anoxia, but relatively less biomass production (D). In line with current limnologic trends, high supra-annual variability in the occurrence of oxygenation events was observed. Interestingly, at least 45.3% of the years were mixing years and, like the meromictic ones, were mostly clustered into groups of consecutive years, thus alternating years of monomixis with years of meromixis. Most years of D belong to the period 1500-1820CE, when human activities were the most intense. Most years of A belonged to the climatic unstable period of 1850-1899CE. Years of B were irregularly distributed but were best represented in the period 1820-1849CE. Most years of C belonged to the 20th century. More than 90% of the years with climatic instrumental records belonged to B and C. Current climate warming seems to be taking control over the oxygenation capacity of the lake, especially since the second half of the 20th century. Our results support recent findings related to hypoxia spreading at the global scale. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. This time it's different. An inevitable decline in world petroleum production will keep oil product prices high, causing military conflicts and shifting wealth and power from democracies to authoritarian regimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leder, Frederic [2742 Sturges Highway, Westport, CT 06880 (United States); Shapiro, Judith N. [796 Sport Hill Road, Easton, CT 06612 (United States)

    2008-08-15

    There is virtual agreement among geologists that world production of conventional oil will peak at some point in the future. Oil, after all, is a finite resource, while demand will only grow over time. Geologists disagree, however, exactly when the peak will occur. Using data from the International Energy Agency, the US Department of Energy, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, and petroleum industry sources, we argue that conventional oil production will reach a worldwide maximum within the next 5-10 years, earlier than generally estimated, thus leaving a very short time frame within which to plan for conversion to alternative sources of energy. Unless planning is initiated immediately, the United States and other Western democracies will see their positions in the global economy undercut as military conflicts over limited energy resources increase, and wealth and power are shifted to authoritarian regimes in Russia, Venezuela, Africa and the Middle East. (author)

  17. Persistent shift of Calanus spp. in the south-western Norwegian Sea since 2003, linked to ocean climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristiansen, Inga; Gaard, Eilif; Hátún, Hjalmar

    2016-01-01

    The southwestern Norwegian Sea is characterized by an inflow of warm and saline Atlantic water from the southwest and cold and less saline East IcelandicWater (EIW), of Arctic origin, from the northwest. These two water masses meet and form the Iceland-Faroe Front (IFF). In this region, the copep...... on the ecosystem and pelagic fish in this subpolar Atlantic region under expected climate change...

  18. Flow regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kh'yuitt, G.

    1980-01-01

    An introduction into the problem of two-phase flows is presented. Flow regimes arizing in two-phase flows are described, and classification of these regimes is given. Structures of vertical and horizontal two-phase flows and a method of their identification using regime maps are considered. The limits of this method application are discussed. The flooding phenomena and phenomena of direction change (flow reversal) of the flow and interrelation of these phenomena as well as transitions from slug regime to churn one and from churn one to annular one in vertical flows are described. Problems of phase transitions and equilibrium are discussed. Flow regimes in tubes where evaporating liquid is running, are described [ru

  19. Ecophysiological Plasticity and Bacteriome Shift in the Seagrass Halophila stipulacea along a Depth Gradient in the Northern Red Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotini, Alice; Mejia, Astrid Y; Costa, Rodrigo; Migliore, Luciana; Winters, Gidon

    2016-01-01

    Halophila stipulacea is a small tropical seagrass species. It is the dominant seagrass species in the Gulf of Aqaba (GoA; northern Red Sea), where it grows in both shallow and deep environments (1-50 m depth). Native to the Red Sea, Persian Gulf, and Indian Ocean, this species has invaded the Mediterranean and has recently established itself in the Caribbean Sea. Due to its invasive nature, there is growing interest to understand this species' capacity to adapt to new conditions, which might be attributed to its ability to thrive in a broad range of ecological niches. In this study, a multidisciplinary approach was used to depict variations in morphology, biochemistry (pigment and phenol content) and epiphytic bacterial communities along a depth gradient (4-28 m) in the GoA. Along this gradient, H. stipulacea increased leaf area and pigment contents (Chlorophyll a and b , total Carotenoids), while total phenol contents were mostly uniform. H. stipulacea displayed a well conserved core bacteriome, as assessed by 454-pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA gene reads amplified from metagenomic DNA. The core bacteriome aboveground (leaves) and belowground (roots and rhizomes), was composed of more than 100 Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) representing 63 and 52% of the total community in each plant compartment, respectively, with a high incidence of the classes Alphaproteobacteria , Gammaproteobacteria , and Deltaproteobacteria across all depths. Above and belowground communities were different and showed higher within-depth variability at the intermediate depths (9 and 18 m) than at the edges. Plant parts showed a clear influence in shaping the communities while depth showed a greater influence on the belowground communities. Overall, results highlighted a different ecological status of H. stipulacea at the edges of the gradient (4-28 m), where plants showed not only marked differences in morphology and biochemistry, but also the most distinct associated bacterial consortium

  20. Shifting patterns of nitrogen excretion and amino acid catabolism capacity during the life cycle of the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkie, Michael P; Claude, Jaime F; Cockshutt, Amanda; Holmes, John A; Wang, Yuxiang S; Youson, John H; Walsh, Patrick J

    2006-01-01

    The jawless fish, the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus), spends part of its life as a burrow-dwelling, suspension-feeding larva (ammocoete) before undergoing a metamorphosis into a free swimming, parasitic juvenile that feeds on the blood of fishes. We predicted that animals in this juvenile, parasitic stage have a great capacity for catabolizing amino acids when large quantities of protein-rich blood are ingested. The sixfold to 20-fold greater ammonia excretion rates (J(Amm)) in postmetamorphic (nonfeeding) and parasitic lampreys compared with ammocoetes suggested that basal rates of amino acid catabolism increased following metamorphosis. This was likely due to a greater basal amino acid catabolizing capacity in which there was a sixfold higher hepatic glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH) activity in parasitic lampreys compared with ammocoetes. Immunoblotting also revealed that GDH quantity was 10-fold and threefold greater in parasitic lampreys than in ammocoetes and upstream migrant lampreys, respectively. Higher hepatic alanine and aspartate aminotransferase activities in the parasitic lampreys also suggested an enhanced amino acid catabolizing capacity in this life stage. In contrast to parasitic lampreys, the twofold larger free amino acid pool in the muscle of upstream migrant lampreys confirmed that this period of natural starvation is accompanied by a prominent proteolysis. Carbamoyl phosphate synthetase III was detected at low levels in the liver of parasitic and upstream migrant lampreys, but there was no evidence of extrahepatic (muscle, intestine) urea production via the ornithine urea cycle. However, detection of arginase activity and high concentrations of arginine in the liver at all life stages examined infers that arginine hydrolysis is an important source of urea. We conclude that metamorphosis is accompanied by a metabolic reorganization that increases the capacity of parasitic sea lampreys to catabolize intermittently large amino acid loads arising

  1. Shift of the circumstances in effluent pollutant loads and water pollution in the Seto Inland Sea; Setonaikai ni okeru odaku fukaryo to suishitsu no hensen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shimizu, T. [Hiroshima Prefectural Institute of Public Health and Environment, Hiroshima (Japan); Komai, Y. [Hyogo Prefectural Institute of Environmental Science, Kobe (Japan); Koyama, T. [Wakayama Prefectural Research Center of Environment and Public Health, Wakayama (Japan); Nagafuchi, O. [Fukuoka Institute of Health and Environment Science, Fukuoka (Japan); Hino, Y. [Kagawa Prefecture Environmental Research Center, Kagawa (Japan); Murakami, K. [Okayama Prefectural Institute for Environmental and Public Health, Okayama (Japan)

    1998-11-10

    The relationship between the shift of the amount of effluent pollutant loads and the quality of water in and after the 1970s is studied for the verification of the effect of wastewater control and pollution measures for the Seto Inland Sea. The pollution loads are analyzed using the population, sewerage system diffusion rate, industrial production amount, number of farm animals, etc., gathered from existing data, and the quality of water is analyzed using the surface layer data collected at 124 sites. Although population as the source of pollutant loads has enlarged, the enlargement does not bring about a significant change in the loads, this partly due to the diffusion of sewerage systems. The rates of reduction in the 1979-1994 period of COD (chemical oxygen demand), T-N (total nitrogen), and T-P (total phosphorus) are 25.2%, 5.3%, and 30.3%, respectively. COD has returned to the previous level, but transparency has turned poorer. T-N and T-P worsened in the 1985-1989 period, and have not yet returned to the levels of 1980-1984. Pollution is in progress in Osaka Bay, Hiroshima Bay, and some others. In some sea areas, transparency is improving, with COD and Chl.a on the increase. From the nutrient salt and Chl.a scatter diagrams, the potential of algal growth relative to the concentration of nutrient salts may be estimated. Organic pollution is affected by algal growth. The organic matters produced in the inland sea are approximately 20 times as much as the organic matters produced on land. 18 refs., 11 figs., 2 tabs.

  2. Flow regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liles, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    Internal boundaries in multiphase flow greatly complicate fluid-dynamic and heat-transfer descriptions. Different flow regimes or topological configurations can have radically dissimilar interfacial and wall mass, momentum, and energy exchanges. To model the flow dynamics properly requires estimates of these rates. In this paper the common flow regimes for gas-liquid systems are defined and the techniques used to estimate the extent of a particular regime are described. Also, the current computer-code procedures are delineated and introduce a potentially better method is introduced

  3. Shallow water marine sediment bacterial community shifts along a natural CO2 gradient in the Mediterranean Sea off Vulcano, Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerfahi, Dorsaf; Hall-Spencer, Jason M; Tripathi, Binu M; Milazzo, Marco; Lee, Junghoon; Adams, Jonathan M

    2014-05-01

    The effects of increasing atmospheric CO(2) on ocean ecosystems are a major environmental concern, as rapid shoaling of the carbonate saturation horizon is exposing vast areas of marine sediments to corrosive waters worldwide. Natural CO(2) gradients off Vulcano, Italy, have revealed profound ecosystem changes along rocky shore habitats as carbonate saturation levels decrease, but no investigations have yet been made of the sedimentary habitat. Here, we sampled the upper 2 cm of volcanic sand in three zones, ambient (median pCO(2) 419 μatm, minimum Ω(arag) 3.77), moderately CO(2)-enriched (median pCO(2) 592 μatm, minimum Ω(arag) 2.96), and highly CO(2)-enriched (median pCO(2) 1611 μatm, minimum Ω(arag) 0.35). We tested the hypothesis that increasing levels of seawater pCO(2) would cause significant shifts in sediment bacterial community composition, as shown recently in epilithic biofilms at the study site. In this study, 454 pyrosequencing of the V1 to V3 region of the 16S rRNA gene revealed a shift in community composition with increasing pCO(2). The relative abundances of most of the dominant genera were unaffected by the pCO(2) gradient, although there were significant differences for some 5 % of the genera present (viz. Georgenia, Lutibacter, Photobacterium, Acinetobacter, and Paenibacillus), and Shannon Diversity was greatest in sediments subject to long-term acidification (>100 years). Overall, this supports the view that globally increased ocean pCO(2) will be associated with changes in sediment bacterial community composition but that most of these organisms are resilient. However, further work is required to assess whether these results apply to other types of coastal sediments and whether the changes in relative abundance of bacterial taxa that we observed can significantly alter the biogeochemical functions of marine sediments.

  4. Environment and security in the South China Sea region : the role of experts, non-governmental actors and governments in regime building processes

    OpenAIRE

    Næss, Tom

    1999-01-01

    Background: The Spratly islands in the South China Sea are today the focal point of a territorial dispute that represents a serious threat to the regional security in Southeast Asia. Six governments - China, Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei - have laid claims to all or some of the more than 230 islets, reefs and shoals in the Spratly area. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) is a key player in the South China Sea conflict. However, the South China Sea is not jus...

  5. Regime change?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pilat, Joseph F.; Budlong-Sylvester, K.W.

    2004-01-01

    Following the 1998 nuclear tests in South Asia and later reinforced by revelations about North Korean and Iraqi nuclear activities, there has been growing concern about increasing proliferation dangers. At the same time, the prospects of radiological/nuclear terrorism are seen to be rising - since 9/11, concern over a proliferation/terrorism nexus has never been higher. In the face of this growing danger, there are urgent calls for stronger measures to strengthen the current international nuclear nonproliferation regime, including recommendations to place civilian processing of weapon-useable material under multinational control. As well, there are calls for entirely new tools, including military options. As proliferation and terrorism concerns grow, the regime is under pressure and there is a temptation to consider fundamental changes to the regime. In this context, this paper will address the following: Do we need to change the regime centered on the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)? What improvements could ensure it will be the foundation for the proliferation resistance and physical protection needed if nuclear power grows? What will make it a viable centerpiece of future nonproliferation and counterterrorism approaches?

  6. New stable isotope records of sediment cores from the SE Arabian Sea - Inferences on the variations in monsoon regime during the late Quaternery

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Thamban, M.; Rao, V.P.

    , Vidyanagar 671 123, India We reconstruct here the changes in regional hydr o- graphy related to the fluctuations in Indian mo n soons du r ing the late Quaternary based on the stable isotope composition of the foraminifers and organic matter in three... value du r ing the early Holocene for the eastern Arabian Sea 21 . The SW monsoon intensity was very weak and the dry NE mo n soon was the dominant feature during the LGM in the Ar a bian Sea 3 . The cool winds of the north - easterly winter...

  7. Covariance among North Sea nutrient and climate drivers: consequences for plankton dynamics.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McQuatters-Gollop, A.; Vermaat, J.E.

    2011-01-01

    Regime shift and principal component analysis of a spatially disaggregated database capturing time-series of climatic, nutrient and plankton variables in the North Sea revealed considerable covariance between groups of ecosystem indicators. Plankton and climate time-series span the period 1958-2003,

  8. A long-term multi-proxy record of varved sediments highlights climate-induced mixing-regime shift in a large hard-water lake ~5000 years ago

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Finsinger

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The long-term terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem dynamics spanning between approximately 6200 and 4800 cal BP were investigated using pollen, diatoms, pigments, charcoal, and geochemistry from varved sediments collected in a large stratified perialpine lake, Lago Grande di Avigliana, in the Italian Alps. Marked changes were detected in diatom and pigment assemblages and in sediment composition at ~4900 cal BP. Organic matter rapidly increased and diatom assemblages shifted from oligotrophic to oligo-mesotrophic planktonic assemblages suggesting that nutrients increased at that time. Because land cover, erosion, and fire frequency did not change significantly, external nutrient sources were possibly not essential in controlling the lake-ecosystem dynamics. This is also supported by redundancy analysis, which showed that variables explaining significant amounts of variance in the diatom data were not the ones related to changes in the catchment. Instead, the broad coincidence between the phytoplankton dynamics and rising lake-levels, cooler temperatures, and stronger spring winds in the northern Mediterranean borderlands possibly points to the effects of climate change on the nutrient recycling in the lake by means of the control that climate can exert on mixing depth. We hypothesize that the increased P-release rates and higher organic-matter accumulation rates, proceeded by enhanced precipitation of iron sulphides, were possibly caused by deeper and stronger mixing leading to enhanced input of nutrients from the anoxic hypolimnion into the epilimnion. Although we cannot completely rule out the influence of minor land-cover changes due to human activities, it may be hypothesized that climate-induced cumulative effects related to mixing regime and P-recycling from sediments influenced the aquatic-ecosystem dynamics.

  9. Competition Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danilo Icaza Ortiz

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a review of the competition regime works of various authors, published under the auspices of the University of the Hemispheres and the Corporation for Studies and Publications. Analyzes the structure, the general concepts, case law taken for development. Includes comments on the usefulness of this work for the study of competition law and the contribution to the lawyers who want to practice in this branch of economic law.

  10. Long-term dynamics of biological indicators of navaga Eleginus nawaga (Walbaum, 1792 of the White Sea in relation to changes of the reservoir temperature regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stasenkov V. A.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Systematic studies of navagа of the White Sea were initiated in the late 1960-ies. Data sets on dimensional indicators, age composition of populations of navaga of the Onega, Dvina, Mezen Bays and Voronka of the White Sea have been accumulated during 45 years of observations. The aim of this work is to identify the causes of the interannual and long-term changes of biological population parameters of navaga. As investigated interannual changes reflecting fish growth, the length and mass of 2 and 3 years old specimens have been chosen. It has been proved that interannual fluctuations in length and weight may depend on the length of the feeding season, as well as the number of populations. Climate warming has resulted that over the past 45 years since the beginning of observations the water temperature in the White Sea in April on average has increased by one degree, and some years – even more. Due to lengthening of the feeding period the seasonal growth of navaga has increased, respectively the annual rates of its length and weight have increased as well. The increase in the growth rate of navaga in the Onega and Dvina Bays has led to its mass mature and joining the fishing (commercial herd at the age of two years. In the Mezen Bay and Voronka the trend on the increase in annual average length and weight navaga of only younger age groups has kept. Growth rate of large size navaga has decreased due to the almost complete cessation of fishing and the increase of older fish number. The revealed regularities in the change of the navaga population parameters of the White Sea should be used for preparing the forecast data on the state of its reserves.

  11. Assessment of extreme hydrological conditions in the Bothnian Bay, Baltic Sea, and the impact of the nuclear power plant "Hanhikivi-1" on the local thermal regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dvornikov, Anton Y.; Martyanov, Stanislav D.; Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.; Eremina, Tatjana R.; Isaev, Alexey V.; Sein, Dmitry V.

    2017-04-01

    The results of the study aimed to assess the influence of future nuclear power plant Hanhikivi-1 upon the local thermal conditions in the Bothnian Bay in the Baltic Sea are presented. A number of experiments with different numerical models were also carried out in order to estimate the extreme hydro-meteorological conditions in the area of the construction. The numerical experiments were fulfilled both with analytically specified external forcing and with real external forcing for 2 years: a cold year (2010) and a warm year (2014). The study has shown that the extreme values of sea level and water temperature and the characteristics of wind waves and sea ice in the vicinity of the future nuclear power plant can be significant and sometimes catastrophic. Permanent release of heat into the marine environment from an operating nuclear power plant will lead to a strong increase in temperature and the disappearance of ice cover within a 2 km vicinity of the station. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future.

  12. DNA methylation of the gonadal aromatase (cyp19a promoter is involved in temperature-dependent sex ratio shifts in the European sea bass.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laia Navarro-Martín

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Sex ratio shifts in response to temperature are common in fish and reptiles. However, the mechanism linking temperature during early development and sex ratios has remained elusive. We show in the European sea bass (sb, a fish in which temperature effects on sex ratios are maximal before the gonads form, that juvenile males have double the DNA methylation levels of females in the promoter of gonadal aromatase (cyp19a, the enzyme that converts androgens into estrogens. Exposure to high temperature increased the cyp19a promoter methylation levels of females, indicating that induced-masculinization involves DNA methylation-mediated control of aromatase gene expression, with an observed inverse relationship between methylation levels and expression. Although different CpGs within the sb cyp19a promoter exhibited different sensitivity to temperature, we show that the increased methylation of the sb cyp19a promoter, which occurs in the gonads but not in the brain, is not a generalized effect of temperature. Importantly, these effects were also observed in sexually undifferentiated fish and were not altered by estrogen treatment. Thus, methylation of the sb cyp19a promoter is the cause of the lower expression of cyp19a in temperature-masculinized fish. In vitro, induced methylation of the sb cyp19a promoter suppressed the ability of SF-1 and Foxl2 to stimulate transcription. Finally, a CpG differentially methylated by temperature and adjacent to a Sox transcription factor binding site is conserved across species. Thus, DNA methylation of the aromatase promoter may be an essential component of the long-sought-after mechanism connecting environmental temperature and sex ratios in vertebrate species with temperature-dependent sex determination.

  13. Shift Colors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Publications & News Shift Colors Pages default Sign In NPC Logo Banner : Shift Colors Search Navy Personnel Command > Reference Library > Publications & News > Shift Colors Top Link Bar Navy Personnel Library Expand Reference Library Quick Launch Shift Colors Shift Colors Archives Mailing Address How to

  14. Hard time to be parents? Sea urchin fishery shifts potential reproductive contribution of population onto the shoulders of the young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loi, Barbara; Guala, Ivan; Pires da Silva, Rodrigo; Brundu, Gianni; Baroli, Maura; Farina, Simone

    2017-01-01

    In Sardinia, as in other regions of the Mediterranean Sea, sustainable fisheries of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus have become a necessity. At harvesting sites, the systematic removal of large individuals (diameter ≥ 50 mm) seriously compromises the biological and ecological functions of sea urchin populations. Specifically, in this study, we compared the reproductive potential of the populations from Mediterranean coastal areas which have different levels of sea urchin fishing pressure. The areas were located at Su Pallosu Bay, where pressure is high and Tavolara-Punta Coda Cavallo, a marine protected area where sea urchin harvesting is low. Reproductive potential was estimated by calculating the gonadosomatic index (GSI) from June 2013 to May 2014 both for individuals of commercial size (diameter without spines, TD ≥ 50 mm) and the undersized ones with gonads (30 ≤ TD sea urchins than on their size. However, since population survival in the high-pressure zone is supported by the high density of undersized sea urchins between 30 and 50 mm, management measures should be addressed to maintain these sizes and to shed light on the source of the larval supply.

  15. Short-term changes in particulate fluxes measured by drifting sediment traps during end summer oligotrophic regime in the NW Mediterranean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Marty

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Short-term changes in the flux of particulate matter were determined in the central north western Mediterranean Sea (near DYFAMED site using drifting sediment traps at 200 m depth in the course of the DYNAPROC 2 cruise (14 September–17 October 2004. In this period of marked water column stratification, POC fluxes varied by an order of magnitude, in the range of 0.03–0.29 mgC m−2 h−1 over the month and showed very rapid and high variations. Particulate carbon export represented less than 5% of integrated primary production, suggesting that phytoplankton production was essentially sustained by internal recycling of organic matter and retained within the photic zone. While PON and POP fluxes paralleled one another, the elemental ratios POC/PON and POC/POP, varied widely over short-term periods. Values of these ratios generally higher than the conventional Redfield ratio, together with the very low chlorophyll a flux recorded in the traps (mean 0.017 μg m−2 h−1, and the high phaeopigment and acyl lipid hydrolysis metabolite concentrations of the settling material, indicated that the organic matter reaching 200 m depth was reworked (by grazing, fecal pellets production, degradation and that algal sinking, dominated by nano- and picoplankton, made a small contribution to the downward flux. Over time, the relative abundance of individual lipid classes in organic matter (OM changed from glycolipids-dominated to neutral (wax esters, triacylglycerols and phospholipids-dominated, suggesting ecosystem maturation as well as rapid and continual exchanges between dissolved, suspended and sinking pools. Our most striking result was documenting the rapid change in fluxes of the various measured parameters. In the situation encountered here, with dominant regenerated production, a decrease of fluxes was noticed during windy periods (possibly through reduction of grazing. But fluxes increased as soon as calm

  16. Two regimes of the Arctic's circulation from ocean models with ice and contaminants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proshutinsky, A Y; Johnson, M

    2001-01-01

    A two-dimensional barotropic, coupled, ocean-ice model with a space resolution of 55.5 km and driven by atmospheric forces, river run-off, and sea-level slope between the Pacific and the Arctic Oceans, has been used to simulate the vertically averaged currents and ice drift in the Arctic Ocean. Results from 43 years of numerical simulations of water and ice motions demonstrate that two wind-driven circulation regimes are possible in the Arctic, a cyclonic and an anti-cyclonic circulation. These two regimes appear to alternate at 5-7 year intervals with the 10-15 year period. It is important to pollution studies to understand which circulation regime prevails at any time. It is anticipated that 1995 is a year with a cyclonic regime, and during this cyclonic phase and possibly during past cyclonic regimes as well, pollutants may reach the Alaskan shelf. The regime shifts demonstrated in this paper are fundamentally important to understanding the Arctic's general circulation and particularly important for estimating pollution transport.

  17. Changes in the Lipid Fraction of Eel Gills after Ionizing Irradiation in Vivo and a Shift from Fresh to Sea Water

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Heinz Johs. Max

    1975-01-01

    Sixteen eels were adapted to tap water for a week. Then eight of them were irradiated with 1000 R γ-radiation and four of the irradiated group and four of the nonirradiated control group were transferred to sea water. The rest remained in tap water. Three days later all were incubated with 14 C...... been irradiated and transferred to sea water. By measuring lipid biosynthesis in gill tissue it was thus possible to show an interaction between the effect of ionizing irradiation and the salinity of the environment, in agreement with previous biological findings....

  18. Hard time to be parents? Sea urchin fishery shifts potential reproductive contribution of population onto the shoulders of the young adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Loi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background In Sardinia, as in other regions of the Mediterranean Sea, sustainable fisheries of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus have become a necessity. At harvesting sites, the systematic removal of large individuals (diameter ≥ 50 mm seriously compromises the biological and ecological functions of sea urchin populations. Specifically, in this study, we compared the reproductive potential of the populations from Mediterranean coastal areas which have different levels of sea urchin fishing pressure. The areas were located at Su Pallosu Bay, where pressure is high and Tavolara-Punta Coda Cavallo, a marine protected area where sea urchin harvesting is low. Methods Reproductive potential was estimated by calculating the gonadosomatic index (GSI from June 2013 to May 2014 both for individuals of commercial size (diameter without spines, TD ≥ 50 mm and the undersized ones with gonads (30 ≤ TD < 40 mm and 40 ≤ TD < 50 mm. Gamete output was calculated for the commercial-size class and the undersized individuals with fertile gonads (40 ≤ TD < 50 mm in relation to their natural density (gamete output per m2. Results The reproductive potential of populations was slightly different at the beginning of the sampling period but it progressed at different rates with an early spring spawning event in the high-pressure zone and two gamete depositions in early and late spring in the low-pressure zone. For each fertile size class, GSI values changed significantly during the year of our study and between the two zones. Although the multiple spawning events determined a two-fold higher total gamete output of population (popTGO in the low-pressure zone, the population mean gamete output (popMGO was similar in the two zones. In the high-pressure zone, the commercial-sized individuals represented approximatively 5% of the population, with almost all the individuals smaller than 60 mm producing an amount of gametes nearly three times lower than the

  19. Ontogenetic and seasonal shifts in the diet of the pemecou sea catfish Sciades herzbergii (Siluriformes: Ariidae), from a macrotidal mangrove creek in the Curuçá estuary, northern Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giarrizzo, Tommaso; Saint-Paul, Ulrich

    2008-06-01

    The feeding ecology of pemecou sea catfish (Sciades herzbergii) was studied bimonthly from September 2003 to July 2004 in a macrotidal mangrove creek at Curuçá estuary, Brazil. Feeding activity and relative importance of prey groups were assessed in 528 and 226 specimens (6.2 to 36.0 cm total length), respectively, using stomach contents. A total of 1 820 specimens were caught. The fish left the creek with an average of 2.2% of their body weight in prey. Feeding activity was lower in the dry season (September and November 2003) than in the rainy season (January to May 2004). The diet was dominated by Ocypodidae and Grapsidae. Feeding strategies of the pemecou sea catfish indicated a slight variation between the diets of adults and juveniles; however; the main factor leading to diversification in the diet were the seasons. Opportunistic feeding behavior was observed in the dry season, shifting to more specialized feeding in the wet season. This temporal diet shift may be explained by the environmental seasonal variations (e.g., transparency of the water, high water level) in the intertidal mangrove creek habitat.

  20. Historical Regimes and Social Indicators of Resilience in an Urban System: the Case of Charleston, South Carolina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Regina Bures

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Employing the adaptive cycle and panarchy in perturbed urban systems can contribute to a better understanding of how these systems respond to broad-scale changes such as war and sea level rise. In this paper we apply a resilience perspective to examine regime shifts in Charleston, South Carolina from a historical perspective. We then look more closely at changes that occurred in Charleston in recent decades, including Hurricane Hugo, and the potential effects of these changes on resilience of the social-ecological system to future shocks. We close with a discussion combining social and ecological perspectives to examine future regime-shift scenarios in the Charleston case and suggest ways to better understand resilience in other coastal urban systems.

  1. Quantized beam shifts in graphene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    de Melo Kort-Kamp, Wilton Junior [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sinitsyn, Nikolai [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dalvit, Diego Alejandro Roberto [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-10-08

    We predict the existence of quantized Imbert-Fedorov, Goos-Hanchen, and photonic spin Hall shifts for light beams impinging on a graphene-on-substrate system in an external magnetic field. In the quantum Hall regime the Imbert-Fedorov and photonic spin Hall shifts are quantized in integer multiples of the fine structure constant α, while the Goos-Hanchen ones in multiples of α2. We investigate the influence on these shifts of magnetic field, temperature, and material dispersion and dissipation. An experimental demonstration of quantized beam shifts could be achieved at terahertz frequencies for moderate values of the magnetic field.

  2. Bidirectional soliton spectral tunneling effects in the regime of optical event horizon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gu, Jie; Guo, Hairun; Wang, Shaofei

    2015-01-01

    We study the cross-phase-modulation-induced soliton spectral shifting in the regime of the optical event horizon. The perturbed soliton to either red-shifting or blue-shifting is controllable, which could evoke bidirectional soliton spectral tunneling effects.......We study the cross-phase-modulation-induced soliton spectral shifting in the regime of the optical event horizon. The perturbed soliton to either red-shifting or blue-shifting is controllable, which could evoke bidirectional soliton spectral tunneling effects....

  3. Shifting Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingram, Jenni

    2014-01-01

    This article examines the shifts in attention and focus as one teacher introduces and explains an image that represents the processes involved in a numeric problem that his students have been working on. This paper takes a micro-analytic approach to examine how the focus of attention shifts through what the teacher and students do and say in the…

  4. Optimal dividend distribution under Markov regime switching

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, Z.; Pistorius, M.

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the problem of optimal dividend distribution for a company in the presence of regime shifts. We consider a company whose cumulative net revenues evolve as a Brownian motion with positive drift that is modulated by a finite state Markov chain, and model the discount rate as a

  5. Method to characterize directional changes in Arctic sea ice drift and associated deformation due to synoptic atmospheric variations using Lagrangian dispersion statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. V. Lukovich

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A framework is developed to assess the directional changes in sea ice drift paths and associated deformation processes in response to atmospheric forcing. The framework is based on Lagrangian statistical analyses leveraging particle dispersion theory which tells us whether ice drift is in a subdiffusive, diffusive, ballistic, or superdiffusive dynamical regime using single-particle (absolute dispersion statistics. In terms of sea ice deformation, the framework uses two- and three-particle dispersion to characterize along- and across-shear transport as well as differential kinematic parameters. The approach is tested with GPS beacons deployed in triplets on sea ice in the southern Beaufort Sea at varying distances from the coastline in fall of 2009 with eight individual events characterized. One transition in particular follows the sea level pressure (SLP high on 8 October in 2009 while the sea ice drift was in a superdiffusive dynamic regime. In this case, the dispersion scaling exponent (which is a slope between single-particle absolute dispersion of sea ice drift and elapsed time changed from superdiffusive (α ∼ 3 to ballistic (α ∼ 2 as the SLP was rounding its maximum pressure value. Following this shift between regimes, there was a loss in synchronicity between sea ice drift and atmospheric motion patterns. While this is only one case study, the outcomes suggest similar studies be conducted on more buoy arrays to test momentum transfer linkages between storms and sea ice responses as a function of dispersion regime states using scaling exponents. The tools and framework developed in this study provide a unique characterization technique to evaluate these states with respect to sea ice processes in general. Application of these techniques can aid ice hazard assessments and weather forecasting in support of marine transportation and indigenous use of near-shore Arctic areas.

  6. The Two Regimes of Postwar Shipping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Martin Jes; Tenold, Stig

    2014-01-01

    the bargaining that accompanied the shift from the national regime to the competitive regime. Specifically, we show that the new regime primarily accommodated the interests of private actors such as shipping companies, rather than the interests of the authorities and the trade unions.......The aim of this article is to illustrate the most important changes in the regulatory framework of the shipping sector from the 1960s to 2010, and to analyse the basis for, and effects of, these changes. In order to explain how the transformation has occurred, we use two traditional maritime...... nations—Denmark and Norway—as case studies. First, we introduce the two regimes of Danish and Norwegian shipping: ‘the national regime’ from the early 1960s to the mid-1970s; and ‘the competitive regime’, which was fully established by the middle of the 1990s and still persists. Then, we briefly sketch...

  7. Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

  8. Market shifting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forst, Michael

    2013-11-01

    After years of oversupply and artificially low module pricing, market analysts believe that the solar industry will begin to stabilize by 2017. While the market activities are shifting from Europe to the Asia Pacific region and the United States, the solar shakeout continues to be in full swing including solar cell and module manufacturing. (orig.)

  9. Tough Shift

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brewer, Robert S.; Verdezoto, Nervo; Holst, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    people to change their behavior at home. Leveraging prior research on encouraging reductions in residential energy use through game play, we introduce ShareBuddy: a casual mobile game intended to encourage players not only to reduce, but also to shift their electricity use. We conducted two field studies...... real-world resource use into a game....

  10. Sustainable urban regime adjustments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quitzau, Maj-Britt; Jensen, Jens Stissing; Elle, Morten

    2013-01-01

    The endogenous agency that urban governments increasingly portray by making conscious and planned efforts to adjust the regimes they operate within is currently not well captured in transition studies. There is a need to acknowledge the ambiguity of regime enactment at the urban scale. This direc...

  11. Flux scaling: Ultimate regime

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Flux scaling: Ultimate regime. With the Nusselt number and the mixing length scales, we get the Nusselt number and Reynolds number (w'd/ν) scalings: and or. and. scaling expected to occur at extremely high Ra Rayleigh-Benard convection. Get the ultimate regime ...

  12. What is the New Chinese Currency Regime?

    OpenAIRE

    Shah, Ajay; Zeileis, Achim; Patnaik, Ila

    2005-01-01

    The revaluation of the yuan in July 2005 was described by the Chinese central bank as a change in the currency regime, rather than merely a changed level of the exchange rate. The reform was said to involve a shift away from the fixed exchange rate, a gradual movement towards greater flexibility, and a peg to a basket of currencies. This paper closely examines the post-July Chinese currency regime utilising contemporary ideas in the econometrics of structural change. We find that the yuan has...

  13. Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    González, Andrés; Hubrich, Kirstin; Teräsvirta, Timo

    to be forecast to form a single inflation forecast. We show, both theoretically and by simulations, how this is done by using the penalised likelihood in the estimation of model parameters. In forecasting inflation, the central bank inflation target, if it exists, is a natural example of such prior information...

  14. Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Daniel; Sun, Zhanli; Vongvisouk, Thoumthone

    2014-01-01

    Payment schemes for ecosystem services such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) rely on the prediction of ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios to ensure that emission reductions from carbon credits are additional. However, land systems often undergo periods of nonlinear...... and abrupt change that invalidate predictions calibrated on past trends. Rapid land-system change can occur when critical thresholds in broad-scale underlying drivers such as commodity prices and climate conditions are crossed or when sudden events such as political change or natural disasters punctuate long...

  15. Oceanographic regime shift during 1997 in Disko Bay, Western Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Marc Overgaard; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel; Stedmon, Colin A.

    2012-01-01

    conditions, while the deeper water strata were more stable and were primarily influenced by large-scale circulation patterns. There was a marked increase in the average water temperatures at 200-m depth in spring 1997, with the long-term average increasing from 1.30uC to 2.25uC. Weekly data from 1996 to 1997...

  16. Avoiding an ecological regime shift is sound economic policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijnen, P.; Wagener, F.O.O.

    2013-01-01

    We extend the shallow lake model by adding the capital stock of an industry. A government can mitigate the effects of pollution arising from industrial activities by imposing the requirement to abate emissions. Within this framework two scenarios are examined: in the social optimal benchmark, the

  17. Avoiding an ecological regime shift is sound economic policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijnen, P.; Wagener, F. O. O.

    We extend the shallow lake model by adding the capital stock of an industry. A government can mitigate the effects of pollution arising from industrial activities by imposing the requirement to abate emissions. Within this framework two scenarios are examined: in the social optimal benchmark, the

  18. Fluid Shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenger, M. B.; Hargens, A. R.; Dulchavsky, S. A.; Arbeille, P.; Danielson, R. W.; Ebert, D. J.; Garcia, K. M.; Johnston, S. L.; Laurie, S. S.; Lee, S. M. C.; hide

    2017-01-01

    Introduction. NASA's Human Research Program is focused on addressing health risks associated with long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS) and future exploration-class missions beyond low Earth orbit. Visual acuity changes observed after short-duration missions were largely transient, but now more than 50 percent of ISS astronauts have experienced more profound, chronic changes with objective structural findings such as optic disc edema, globe flattening and choroidal folds. These structural and functional changes are referred to as the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. Development of VIIP symptoms may be related to elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) secondary to spaceflight-induced cephalad fluid shifts, but this hypothesis has not been tested. The purpose of this study is to characterize fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration spaceflight and to determine if a relation exists with vision changes and other elements of the VIIP syndrome. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during spaceflight, as well as any VIIP-related effects of those shifts, are predicted by the crewmember's pre-flight status and responses to acute hemodynamic manipulations, specifically posture changes and lower body negative pressure. Methods. We will examine a variety of physiologic variables in 10 long-duration ISS crewmembers using the test conditions and timeline presented in the figure below. Measures include: (1) fluid compartmentalization (total body water by D2O, extracellular fluid by NaBr, intracellular fluid by calculation, plasma volume by CO rebreathe, interstitial fluid by calculation); (2) forehead/eyelids, tibia, and calcaneus tissue thickness (by ultrasound); (3) vascular dimensions by ultrasound (jugular veins, cerebral and carotid arteries, vertebral arteries and veins, portal vein); (4) vascular dynamics by MRI (head/neck blood flow, cerebrospinal fluid

  19. Climate change and ice hazards in the Beaufort Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barber, D. G.; McCullough, G.; Babb, D.

    2014-01-01

    Recent reductions in the summer extent of sea ice have focused the world’s attention on the effects of climate change. Increased CO2-derived global warming is rapidly shrinking the Arctic multi-year ice pack. This shift in ice regimes allows for increasing development opportunities for large oil...... will be a much more complex task than modeling average ice circulation. Given the observed reduction in sea ice extent and thickness this rather counterintuitive situation, associated with a warming climate, poses significant hazards to Arctic marine oil and gas development and marine transportation. Accurate...... forecasting of hazardous ice motion will require improved real-time surface wind and ocean current forecast models capable of ingesting local satellite-derived wind data and/or local, closely-spaced networks of anemometers and improved methods of determining high-frequency components of surface ocean current...

  20. Ontogenetic and seasonal shifts in the diet of the pemecou sea catfish Sciades herzbergii (Siluriformes: Ariidae, from a macrotidal mangrove creek in the Curuçá estuary, Northern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tommaso Giarrizzo

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The feeding ecology of pemecou sea catfish (Sciades herzbergii was studied bimonthly from September 2003 to July 2004 in a macrotidal mangrove creek at Curuçá estuary, Brazil. Feeding activity and relative importance of prey groups were assessed in 528 and 226 specimens (6.2 to 36.0 cm total length, respectively, using stomach contents. A total of 1 820 specimens were caught. The fish left the creek with an average of 2.2 % of their body weight in prey. Feeding activity was lower in the dry season (September and November 2003 than in the rainy season (January to May 2004. The diet was dominated by Ocypodidae and Grapsidae. Feeding strategies of the pemecou sea catfish indicated a slight variation between the diets of adults and juveniles; however; the main factor leading to diversification in the diet were the seasons. Opportunistic feeding behavior was observed in the dry season, shifting to more specialized feeding in the wet season. This temporal diet shift may be explained by the environmental seasonal variations (e.g. transparency of the water, high water level in the intertidal mangrove creek habitat. Rev. Biol. Trop. 56 (2: 861-873. Epub 2008 June 30.Estudiamos la ecología trófica del bagre guatero Sciades herzbergii, con periodicidad bimestral, desde septiembre de 2003 a julio de 2004, en un canal de marea del estuario del río Curuçá, norte de Brasil. Del total de 1820 ejemplares capturados, analizamos la actividad alimentaría y la importancia de las diferentes fuentes de alimento por evaluación de los contenidos estomacales de 528 y 226 ejemplares (longitud corporal 6,2 a 36,0 cm, respectivamente. S. herzbergii sale del canal de marea con un valor promedio de 2,2 % de su peso corporal como alimento. El ritmo alimentario fue menor durante el período seco (septiembre a noviembre de 2003 que en el lluvioso (enero a mayo de 2004. Los análisis de los contenidos estomacales de 226 ejemplares indicaron una dieta con predominio de

  1. 'CANDLE' burnup regime after LWR regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sekimoto, Hiroshi; Nagata, Akito

    2008-01-01

    CANDLE (Constant Axial shape of Neutron flux, nuclide densities and power shape During Life of Energy producing reactor) burnup strategy can derive many merits. From safety point of view, the change of excess reactivity along burnup is theoretically zero, and the core characteristics, such as power feedback coefficients and power peaking factor, are not changed along burnup. Application of this burnup strategy to neutron rich fast reactors makes excellent performances. Only natural or depleted uranium is required for the replacing fuels. About 40% of natural or depleted uranium undergoes fission without the conventional reprocessing and enrichment. If the LWR produced energy of X Joules, the CANDLE reactor can produce about 50X Joules from the depleted uranium left at the enrichment facility for the LWR fuel. If we can say LWRs have produced energy sufficient for full 20 years, we can produce the energy for 1000 years by using the CANDLE reactors with depleted uranium. We need not mine any uranium ore, and do not need reprocessing facility. The burnup of spent fuel becomes 10 times. Therefore, the spent fuel amount per produced energy is also reduced to one-tenth. The details of the scenario of CANDLE burnup regime after LWR regime will be presented at the symposium. (author)

  2. Assessment of extreme hydrological conditions in the Bothnian Bay, Baltic Sea, and the impact of the nuclear power plant ''Hanhikivi-1'' on the local thermal regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dvornikov, Anton Y.; Martyanov, Stanislav D.; Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.; Isaev, Alexey V. [Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation). P.P. Shirshov Inst. of Oceanology; Eremina, Tatjana R. [Russian State Hydrometeorological Univ., St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Sein, Dmitry V. [Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany). Alfred Wegener Inst.

    2017-07-01

    The results of the study aimed to assess the influence of future nuclear power plant ''Hanhikivi-1'' upon the local thermal conditions in the Bothnian Bay in the Baltic Sea are presented. A number of experiments with different numerical models were also carried out in order to estimate the extreme hydro-meteorological conditions in the area of the construction. The numerical experiments were fulfilled both with analytically specified external forcing and with real external forcing for 2 years: a cold year (2010) and a warm year (2014). The study has shown that the extreme values of sea level and water temperature and the characteristics of wind waves and sea ice in the vicinity of the future nuclear power plant can be significant and sometimes catastrophic. Permanent release of heat into the marine environment from an operating nuclear power plant will lead to a strong increase in temperature and the disappearance of ice cover within a 2 km vicinity of the station. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future.

  3. THE INFLUENCED FLOW REGIMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gavril PANDI

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The influenced flow regimes. The presence and activities ofhumanity influences the uniform environmental system, and in this context, therivers water resources. In concordance with this, the natural runoff regime suffersbigger and deeper changes. The nature of these changes depending on the type anddegree of water uses. The multitude of the use cause different types of influence,whit different quantitative aspects. In the same time, the influences havequalitative connotations, too, regarding to the modifications of the yearly watervolume runoff. So the natural runoff regime is modified. After analyzing thedistribution laws of the monthly runoff, there have been differenced four types ofinfluenced runoff regimes. In the excess type the influenced runoff is bigger thanthe natural, continuously in the whole year. The deficient type is characterized byinverse rapports like the first type, in the whole year. In the sinusoidal type, theinfluenced runoff is smaller than the natural in the period when the water isretained in the lake reservoirs, and in the depletion period the situation inverts. Atthe irregular type the ratio between influenced and natural runoff is changeable ina random meaner monthly. The recognition of the influenced regime and the gradeof influence are necessary in the evaluation and analysis of the usable hydrologicalriver resources, in the flood defence activities, in the complex scheme of thehydrographic basins, in the environment design and so on.

  4. Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at sea, and climate, 1955-2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggerone, G.T.; Nielsen, J.L.; Bumgarner, J.

    2007-01-01

    We tested the hypothesis that increased growth of salmon during early marine life contributed to greater survival and abundance of salmon following the 1976/1977 climate regime shift and that this, in turn, led to density-dependent reductions in growth during late marine stages. Annual measurements of Bristol Bay (Bering Sea) and Chignik (Gulf of Alaska) sockeye salmon scale growth from 1955 to 2002 were used as indices of body growth. During the first and second years at sea, growth of both stocks tended to be higher after the 1976-1977 climate shift, whereas growth during the third year and homeward migration was often below average. Multiple regression models indicated that return per spawner of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and adult abundance of western and central Alaska sockeye salmon were positively correlated with growth during the first 2 years at sea and negatively correlated with growth during later life stages. After accounting for competition between Bristol Bay sockeye and Asian pink salmon, age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon increased after the 1976-1977 regime shift, then decreased after the 1989 climate shift. Late marine growth and age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon was exceptionally low after 1989, possibly reducing their reproductive potential. These findings support the hypothesis that greater marine growth during the first 2 years at sea contributed to greater salmon survival and abundance, which in turn led to density-dependent growth during later life stages when size-related mortality was likely lower. Our findings provide new evidence supporting the importance of bottom-up control in marine ecosystems and highlight the complex dynamics of species interactions that continually change as salmon grow and mature in the ocean. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Supply regimes in fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Max

    2006-01-01

    Supply in fisheries is traditionally known for its backward bending nature, owing to externalities in production. Such a supply regime, however, exist only for pure open access fisheries. Since most fisheries worldwide are neither pure open access, nor optimally managed, rather between the extremes......, the traditional understanding of supply regimes in fisheries needs modification. This paper identifies through a case study of the East Baltic cod fishery supply regimes in fisheries, taking alternative fisheries management schemes and mesh size limitations into account. An age-structured Beverton-Holt based bio......-economic supply model with mesh sizes is developed. It is found that in the presence of realistic management schemes, the supply curves are close to vertical in the relevant range. Also, the supply curve under open access with mesh size limitations is almost vertical in the relevant range, owing to constant...

  6. Impacts of extratropical storm tracks on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Jianfen; Zhang, Xiangdong; Wang, Zhaomin

    2018-05-01

    Studies have indicated regime shifts in atmospheric circulation, and associated changes in extratropical storm tracks and Arctic storm activity, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and cyclone activity on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait by using a high resolution global ocean-sea ice model, MITgcm-ECCO2. The model was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter (in this study winter is defined as October-March and summer as April-September) storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

  7. Shifting Sugars and Shifting Paradigms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegal, Mark L.

    2015-01-01

    No organism lives in a constant environment. Based on classical studies in molecular biology, many have viewed microbes as following strict rules for shifting their metabolic activities when prevailing conditions change. For example, students learn that the bacterium Escherichia coli makes proteins for digesting lactose only when lactose is available and glucose, a better sugar, is not. However, recent studies, including three PLOS Biology papers examining sugar utilization in the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, show that considerable heterogeneity in response to complex environments exists within and between populations. These results join similar recent results in other organisms that suggest that microbial populations anticipate predictable environmental changes and hedge their bets against unpredictable ones. The classical view therefore represents but one special case in a range of evolutionary adaptations to environmental changes that all organisms face. PMID:25688600

  8. Shifting sugars and shifting paradigms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark L Siegal

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available No organism lives in a constant environment. Based on classical studies in molecular biology, many have viewed microbes as following strict rules for shifting their metabolic activities when prevailing conditions change. For example, students learn that the bacterium Escherichia coli makes proteins for digesting lactose only when lactose is available and glucose, a better sugar, is not. However, recent studies, including three PLOS Biology papers examining sugar utilization in the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, show that considerable heterogeneity in response to complex environments exists within and between populations. These results join similar recent results in other organisms that suggest that microbial populations anticipate predictable environmental changes and hedge their bets against unpredictable ones. The classical view therefore represents but one special case in a range of evolutionary adaptations to environmental changes that all organisms face.

  9. Cargo liability regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    There are at present at least three international regimes of maritime cargo liability in force in different countries of the world - the original Hague rules (1924), the updated version known as the Hague-Visby rules (1968, further amended 1979), and...

  10. Trust in regulatory regimes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Six, Frédérique; Verhoest, Koen

    2017-01-01

    Within political and administrative sciences generally, trust as a concept is contested, especially in the field of regulatory governance. This groundbreaking book is the first to systematically explore the role and dynamics of trust within regulatory regimes. Conceptualizing, mapping and analyzing

  11. East Asian welfare regime

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abrahamson, Peter

    2017-01-01

    The paper asks if East Asian welfare regimes are still productivist and Confucian? And, have they developed public care policies? The literature is split on the first question but (mostly) confirmative on the second. Care has to a large, but insufficient extent, been rolled out in the region...

  12. Using the Moist Static Energy Budget to Understand Storm Track Shifts across a Range of Timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barpanda, P.; Shaw, T.

    2017-12-01

    Storm tracks shift meridionally in response to forcing across a range of time scales. Here we formulate a moist static energy (MSE) framework for storm track position and use it to understand storm track shifts in response to seasonal insolation, El Niño minus La Niña conditions, and direct (increased CO2 over land) and indirect (increased sea surface temperature) effects of increased CO2. Two methods (linearized Taylor series and imposed MSE flux divergence) are developed to quantify storm track shifts and decompose them into contributions from net energy (MSE input to the atmosphere minus atmospheric storage) and MSE flux divergence by the mean meridional circulation and stationary eddies. Net energy is not a dominant contribution across the time scales considered. The stationary eddy contribution dominates the storm-track shift in response to seasonal insolation, El Niño minus La Niña conditions, and CO2 direct effect in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas the mean meridional circulation contribution dominates the shift in response to CO2 indirect effect during northern winter and in the Southern Hemisphere during May and October. Overall, the MSE framework shows the seasonal storm-track shift in the Northern Hemisphere is connected to the stationary eddy MSE flux evolution. Furthermore, the equatorward storm-track shift during northern winter in response to El Niño minus La Niña conditions involves a different regime than the poleward shift in response to increased CO2 even though the tropical upper troposphere warms in both cases.

  13. International Food Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Malov

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The review article reveals the content of the concept of Food Regime, which is little-known in the Russian academic reference. The author monitored and codified the semantic dynamic of the terminological unit from its original interpretations to modern formulations based on the retrospective analysis. The rehabilitation of the academic merits of D. Puchala and R. Hopkins — authors who used the concept Food Regime for a few years before its universally recognized origin and official scientific debut, was accomplished with help of historical and comparative methods. The author implemented the method of ascension from the abstract to the concrete to demonstrating the classification of Food Regimes compiled on the basis of geopolitical interests in the sphere of international production, consumption, and distribution of foodstuffs. The characteristic features of historically formed Food Regime were described in the chronological order, as well as modern tendencies possessing reformist potential were identified. In particular, it has been established that the idea of Food Sovereignty (which is an alternative to the modern Corporate Food Regime is the subject for acute academic disputes. The discussion between P. McMichael P. and H. Bernstein devoted to the “peasant question” — mobilization frame of the Food Sovereignty strategy was analyzed using the secondary data processing method. Due to the critical analysis, the author comes to the conclusion that it is necessary to follow the principles of the Food Sovereignty strategy to prevent the catastrophic prospects associated with ecosystem degradation, accelerated erosion of soils, the complete disappearance of biodiversity and corporate autoc racy successfully. The author is convinced that the idea of Food Sovereignty can ward off energetic liberalization of nature, intensive privatization of life and rapid monetization of unconditioned human reflexes.

  14. Dynamic Effect of a Change in the Exchange Rate System: From a Fixed Regime to a Basket-Peg or a Floating Regime

    OpenAIRE

    Yoshino, Naoyuki; Kaji, Sahoko; Asonuma, Tamon

    2015-01-01

    This paper theoretically evaluates the dynamic effects of a shift in an exchange rate system from a fixed regime to a basket peg, or to a floating regime, and obtains transition paths for the shift based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We apply quantitative analysis using data from the People's Republic of China and Thailand and find that a small open country would be better off shifting to a basket peg or to a floating regime than maintaining a doll...

  15. Air sea ratio reduction initiative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oberle, Jean

    2010-09-15

    Airfreight is the most expensive mode of transportation as well as the most impacting in terms of CO{sup 2} emissions. It is 7 times more expensive on average to ship by air than shipping by sea 1. Airfreight transportation mode emits 30 times more CO{sup 2} than sea freight mode 2. These elements provided a compelling platform to design a global logistics program to initiate a modal shift from air to sea freight without compromising service to customers.

  16. Low-frequency variability in North Sea and Baltic Sea identified through simulations with the 3-D coupled physical–biogeochemical model ECOSMO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Daewel

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Here we present results from a long-term model simulation of the 3-D coupled ecosystem model ECOSMO II for a North Sea and Baltic Sea set-up. The model allows both multi-decadal hindcast simulation of the marine system and specific process studies under controlled environmental conditions. Model results have been analysed with respect to long-term multi-decadal variability in both physical and biological parameters with the help of empirical orthogonal function (EOF analysis. The analysis of a 61-year (1948–2008 hindcast reveals a quasi-decadal variation in salinity, temperature and current fields in the North Sea in addition to singular events of major changes during restricted time frames. These changes in hydrodynamic variables were found to be associated with changes in ecosystem productivity that are temporally aligned with the timing of reported regime shifts in the areas. Our results clearly indicate that for analysing ecosystem productivity, spatially explicit methods are indispensable. Especially in the North Sea, a correlation analysis between atmospheric forcing and primary production (PP reveals significant correlations between PP and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO and wind forcing for the central part of the region, while the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO and air temperature are correlated to long-term changes in PP in the southern North Sea frontal areas. Since correlations cannot serve to identify causal relationship, we performed scenario model runs perturbing the temporal variability in forcing condition to emphasize specifically the role of solar radiation, wind and eutrophication. The results revealed that, although all parameters are relevant for the magnitude of PP in the North Sea and Baltic Sea, the dominant impact on long-term variability and major shifts in ecosystem productivity was introduced by modulations of the wind fields.

  17. Floating Exchange Rate Regime

    OpenAIRE

    Quader, Syed Manzur

    2004-01-01

    In recent years, many developing countries having a history of high inflation, unfavorable balance of payment situation and a high level of foreign currencies denominated debt, have switched or are in the process of switching to a more flexible exchange rate regime. Therefore, the stability of the exchange rate and the dynamics of its volatility are more crucial than before to prevent financial crises and macroeconomic disturbances. This paper is designed to find out the reasons behind Bangla...

  18. Air-sea exchanges of materials in the Indian Ocean: Concerns and strategies

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DileepKumar, M.

    biological production is entirely due to leakage of agricultural effluents into coastal waters, as the present knowledge on the seasonal variability of nutrients and biological production in waters along the Indian coast is still limited. If this theory... to gaseous CO2 with minor reduction in pH. The gaseous CO2 in seawater determines the extent of air-sea exchange. But small changes in temperature or pH can modify gaseous CO2 content in seawater. Thus shifts in physico- chemical and biological regimes...

  19. How Changing Human Lifestyles are Shaping Europe's Regional Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mee, L. D.; Lowe, C. D.; Langmead, O.; McQuatters-Gollop, A.; Attrill, M.; Cooper, P.; Gilbert, A.; Knudsen, S.; Garnacho, E.

    2007-05-01

    sediments and are gradually released to the water column. This situation is analogous to climate change `locked in' by current greenhouse gas concentrations that are products of past economic activities. For the Baltic Sea for example, only a radical reduction in both phosphorus and nitrogen loads to the sea would overcome eutrophication, and future management strategies must contemplate adaptation as well as mitigation. These strategies will also need to accommodate climate change, regime shifts and emergent issues such as `lifestyle' chemicals and the massive development of offshore renewable energy.

  20. Water regime of steam power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oesz, Janos

    2011-01-01

    The water regime of water-steam thermal power plants (secondary side of pressurized water reactors (PWR); fossil-fired thermal power plants - referred to as steam power plants) has changed in the past 30 years, due to a shift from water chemistry to water regime approach. The article summarizes measures (that have been realised by chemists of NPP Paks) on which the secondary side of NPP Paks has become a high purity water-steam power plant and by which the water chemistry stress corrosion risk of heat transfer tubes in the VVER-440 steam generators was minimized. The measures can also be applied to the water regime of fossil-fired thermal power plants with super- and subcritical steam pressure. Based on the reliability analogue of PWR steam generators, water regime can be defined as the harmony of construction, material(s) and water chemistry, which needs to be provided in not only the steam generators (boiler) but in each heat exchanger of steam power plant: - Construction determines the processes of flow, heat and mass transfer and their local inequalities; - Material(s) determines the minimal rate of general corrosion and the sensitivity for local corrosion damage; - Water chemistry influences the general corrosion of material(s) and the corrosion products transport, as well as the formation of local corrosion environment. (orig.)

  1. Filling regulatory gaps in high seas fisheries: discrete high seas fish stocks, deep-sea fisheries and vulnerable marine ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Takei, Y.

    2008-01-01

    The present study examines the legal regime of high seas fisheries with a view to identifying regulatory gaps. The main research questions are as follows: 1. What general principles are applicable to high seas fisheries?; 2. What implications do these general principles have for new challenges in

  2. Tropospheric characteristics over sea ice during N-ICE2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayser, Markus; Maturilli, Marion; Graham, Robert; Hudson, Stephen; Cohen, Lana; Rinke, Annette; Kim, Joo-Hong; Park, Sang-Jong; Moon, Woosok; Granskog, Mats

    2017-04-01

    Over recent years, the Arctic Ocean region has shifted towards a younger and thinner sea-ice regime. The Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition was designed to investigate the atmosphere-snow-ice-ocean interactions in this new ice regime north of Svalbard. Here we analyze upper-air measurements made by radiosondes launched twice daily together with surface meteorology observations during N-ICE2015 from January to June 2015. We study the multiple cyclonic events observed during N-ICE2015 with respect to changes in the vertical thermodynamic structure, sudden increases in moisture content and temperature, temperature inversions and boundary layer dynamics. The influence of synoptic cyclones is strongest under polar night conditions, when radiative cooling is most effective and the moisture content is low. We find that transitions between the radiatively clear and opaque state are the largest drivers of changes to temperature inversion and stability characteristics in the boundary layer during winter. In spring radiative fluxes warm the surface leading to lifted temperature inversions and a statically unstable boundary layer. The unique N-ICE2015 dataset is used for case studies investigating changes in the vertical structure of the atmosphere under varying synoptic conditions. The goal is to deepen our understanding of synoptic interactions within the Arctic climate system, to improve model performance, as well as to identify gaps in instrumentation, which precludes further investigations.

  3. Regime-switching models to study psychological process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamaker, E.L.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.; Kamphuis, J.H.

    2010-01-01

    Many psychological processes are characterized by recurrent shifts between different states. To model these processes at the level of the individual, regime-switching models may prove useful. In this chapter we discuss two of these models: the threshold autoregressive model and the Markov

  4. Synoptic conditions of fine-particle transport to the last interglacial Red Sea -Dead Sea from Nd-Sr compositions of sediment cores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, M.; Palchan, D.; Goldstein, S. L.; Almogi-Labin, A.; Tirosh, O.; Erel, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The last interglacial peak, Marine Isotope Stage 5e (MIS 5e), was associated with stronger northern hemisphere insolation, higher global sea levels and higher average global temperatures compared to the Holocene, and is considered as an analogue for a future warming world. In this perspective the present-day areas of the Sahara - Arabia deserts (the "desert belt") are of special interest since their margins are densely inhabited and global climate models predict enhanced aridity in these regions due to future warming. The Red Sea situated at the midst of the desert belt and the Dead Sea at the northern fringe of the desert belt comprise sensitive monitors for past hydroclimate changes in the Red Sea-Levant regions as global climate shifted from glacial to interglacial conditions. Here, we reconstruct the synoptic conditions that controlled desert dust transport to the Red Sea and the Dead Sea during MIS5e. The reconstruction is based on Nd-Sr isotopes and chemical composition of carbonate-free detritus recovered from sediment cores drilled at the deep floors of these water-bodies combined with data of contemporaneous dust storms transporting dust to the lake and sea floors. During Termination 2 ( 134-130 ka) the Sahara, Nile River desiccated and the Dead Sea watershed were under extreme dry conditions manifested by lake level drop, deposition of salt and enhanced transport of Sahara dusts to the entire studied transect. At the peak of the interglacial MIS 5e ( 130-120 ka), enhanced flooding activity mobilized local fine detritus from the surroundings of the Red Sea and the Dead Sea watershed into the water-bodies. This interval coincided with the Sapropel event S5 in the Mediterranean that responded to enhanced monsoon rains at the heads of the Blue Nile River. At the end of MIS 5e ( 120-116 ka) the effect of the regional floods faded and the Dead Sea and Red Sea areas re-entered sever arid conditions with salt deposition at the Dead Sea. Overall, the desert

  5. North Atlantic atmospheric and ocean inter-annual variability over the past fifty years - Dominant patterns and decadal shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, Tristan; Demirov, Entcho; Zhu, Jieshun; Yashayaev, Igor

    2015-03-01

    The atmosphere and ocean of the North Atlantic have undergone significant changes in the past century. To understand these changes, their mechanisms, and their regional implications requires a quantitative understanding of processes in the coupled ocean and atmosphere system. Central to this understanding is the role played by the dominant patterns of ocean and atmospheric variability which define coherent variations in physical characteristics over large areas. Cluster analysis is used in this article to identify the patterns of the North Atlantic atmospheric variability in the subseasonal and interannual spectral intervals. Four dominant subseasonal weather regimes are defined using Bayesian Gaussian mixture models. All correlation patterns of the Sea Level Pressure (SLP) anomalies with the membership probability time series for the weather regimes show similarities with the dipole structure typical for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The SLP patterns of two of the regimes represent the opposite phases NAO+ and NAO-. The two other weather regimes, the Atlantic Ridge (AR) and Scandinavian-Greenland dipole (SG), have dipole spatial structures with the northern and southern centers of action shifted with respect to the NAO pattern. These two patterns define blocking structures over Scandinavia and near the southern tip of Greenland, respectively. The storm tracks typical for the four regimes resemble the well known paths for positive/negative phases of NAO for the NAO+/NAO- weather regimes, and paths influenced by blocking off the south Greenland tip for AR and over Scandinavia for SG. The correlation patterns of momentum and heat fluxes to the ocean for the four regimes have tripole structures with positive (warm) downward heat flux anomalies over the Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) for the NAO- and the AR and negative heat flux anomalies over the SPNA for the NAO+. The downward heat flux anomalies associated with the SG are negative over the Labrador Sea and

  6. Characteristics of regulatory regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noralv Veggeland

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The overarching theme of this paper is institutional analysis of basic characteristics of regulatory regimes. The concepts of path dependence and administrative traditions are used throughout. Self-reinforcing or positive feedback processes in political systems represent a basic framework. The empirical point of departure is the EU public procurement directive linked to OECD data concerning use of outsourcing among member states. The question is asked: What has caused the Nordic countries, traditionally not belonging to the Anglo-Saxon market-centred administrative tradition, to be placed so high on the ranking as users of the Market-Type Mechanism (MTM of outsourcing in the public sector vs. in-house provision of services? A thesis is that the reason may be complex, but might be found in an innovative Scandinavian regulatory approach rooted in the Nordic model.

  7. Regime switching state-space models applied to psychological processes: handling missing data and making inferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamaker, E.L.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.

    2012-01-01

    Many psychological processes are characterized by recurrent shifts between distinct regimes or states. Examples that are considered in this paper are the switches between different states associated with premenstrual syndrome, hourly fluctuations in affect during a major depressive episode, and

  8. Phenotypic plasticity of southern ocean diatoms: key to success in the sea ice habitat?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivia Sackett

    Full Text Available Diatoms are the primary source of nutrition and energy for the Southern Ocean ecosystem. Microalgae, including diatoms, synthesise biological macromolecules such as lipids, proteins and carbohydrates for growth, reproduction and acclimation to prevailing environmental conditions. Here we show that three key species of Southern Ocean diatom (Fragilariopsis cylindrus, Chaetoceros simplex and Pseudo-nitzschia subcurvata exhibited phenotypic plasticity in response to salinity and temperature regimes experienced during the seasonal formation and decay of sea ice. The degree of phenotypic plasticity, in terms of changes in macromolecular composition, was highly species-specific and consistent with each species' known distribution and abundance throughout sea ice, meltwater and pelagic habitats, suggesting that phenotypic plasticity may have been selected for by the extreme variability of the polar marine environment. We argue that changes in diatom macromolecular composition and shifts in species dominance in response to a changing climate have the potential to alter nutrient and energy fluxes throughout the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

  9. Influence of orographically enhanced SW monsoon flux on coastal processes along the SE Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chauhan, O.S.; Raghavan, B.R.; Singh, K.; Rajawat, A; Ajai; Kader, U.S.A; Nayak, S.

    The Arabian Sea has an excess evaporation over precipitation regime. The southeast Arabian Sea is, however, anomalous because it has ~2800–4800 mm rainfall during the southwest monsoon (SWM). Despite a high rainfall, the fluvial influence on supply...

  10. Energy efficiency improvement by gear shifting optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blagojevic Ivan A.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Many studies have proved that elements of driver’s behavior related to gear selection have considerable influence on the fuel consumption. Optimal gear shifting is a complex task, especially for inexperienced drivers. This paper presents an implemented idea for gear shifting optimization with the aim of fuel consumption minimization with more efficient engine working regimes. Optimized gear shifting enables the best possible relation between vehicle motion regimes and engine working regimes. New theoretical-experimental approach has been developed using On-Board Diagnostic technology which so far has not been used for this purpose. The matrix of driving modes according to which tests were performed is obtained and special data acquisition system and analysis process have been developed. Functional relations between experimental test modes and adequate engine working parameters have been obtained and all necessary operations have been conducted to enable their use as inputs for the designed algorithm. The created Model has been tested in real exploitation conditions on passenger car with Otto fuel injection engine and On-Board Diagnostic connection without any changes on it. The conducted tests have shown that the presented Model has significantly positive effects on fuel consumption which is an important ecological aspect. Further development and testing of the Model allows implementation in wide range of motor vehicles with various types of internal combustion engines.

  11. Seasonal changes in the denitrification regime of the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naqvi, S.W.A.; Noronha, R.J.; Somasundar, K.; SenGupta, R.

    ), it is possible to determine the end-members' compositions with reasonable confidence. We selected two stations to serve as the northern and southern end-members. The northern end-member (EM no. 1, AN 2346; Lat. 22°15.9'N, Long. 60°55.9'E) was occupied during... a cruise of Atlantis 11 in January 1977, and the southern end-member (EM no. 2, 110S; Lat. 15°00. I'N, Long. 72°00'E) was sampled in August 1987. The rationale of selection was as follows. Both the stations were apparently located outside the zone...

  12. Micropatch Antenna Phase Shifting

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Thursby, Michael

    2000-01-01

    .... We have been looking at the ability of embedded element to adjust the phase shift seen by the element with the goal of being able to remove the phase shifting devices from the antenna and replace...

  13. Micropatch Antenna Phase Shifting

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Thursby, Michael

    1999-01-01

    .... We have been looking at the ability of embedded element to adjust the phase shift seen by the element wit the goal of being able to remove the phase shifting devices from the antenna and replace...

  14. OpenShift Workshop

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva; Rodriguez Peon, Alberto

    2017-01-01

    Workshop to introduce developers to the OpenShift platform available at CERN. Several use cases will be shown, including deploying an existing application into OpenShift. We expect attendees to realize about OpenShift features and general architecture of the service.

  15. The Water Level and Transport Regimes of the Lower Columbia River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jay, D. A.

    2011-12-01

    Tidal rivers are vital, spatially extensive conduits of material from land to sea. Yet the tidal-fluvial regime remains poorly understood relative to the bordering fluvial and estuarine/coastal regimes with which it interacts. The 235km-long Lower Columbia River (LCR) consists of five zones defined by topographic constrictions: a 5km-long ocean-entrance, the lower estuary (15km), an energy-minimum (67km), the tidal river (142km), and a landslide zone (5km). Buoyant plume lift-off occurs within the entrance zone, which is dominated by tidal and wave energy. The lower estuary is strongly tidally, amplifies the semidiurnal tide, and has highly variable salinity intrusion. Tidal and fluvial influences are balanced in the wide energy-minimum, into which salinity intrudes during low-flow periods. It has a turbidity maximum and a dissipation minimum at its lower end, but a water-level variance minimum at its landward end. The tidal river shows a large increase in the ratio of fluvial-to-tidal energy in the landward direction and strong seasonal variations in tidal properties. Because tidal monthly water level variations are large, low waters are higher on spring than neap tides. The steep landslide zone has only weak tides and is the site of the most seaward hydropower dam. Like many dammed systems, the LCR has pseudo-tides: daily and weakly hydropower peaking waves that propagate seaward. Tidal constituent ratios vary in the alongchannel direction due to frictional non-linearities, the changing balance of dissipation vs. propagation, and power peaking. Long-term changes to the system have occurred due to climate change and direct human manipulation. Flood control, hydropower regulation, and diversion have reduced peak flows, total load and sand transport by ~45, 50 and 80%, respectively, causing a blue-shift in the flow and water level power spectra. Overbank flows have been largely eliminated through a redundant combination of diking and flow regulation. Export of sand

  16. Regime-switching stochastic volatility. Evidence from the crude oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vo, Minh T.

    2009-01-01

    This paper incorporates regime-switching into the stochastic volatility (SV) framework in an attempt to explain the behavior of crude oil prices in order to forecast their volatility. More specifically, it models the volatility of oil return as a stochastic volatility process whose mean is subject to shifts in regime. The shift is governed by a two-state first-order Markov process. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used to estimate the models. The main findings are: first, there is clear evidence of regime-switching in the oil market. Ignoring it will lead to a false impression that the volatility is highly persistent and therefore highly predictable. Second, incorporating regime-switching into the SV framework significantly enhances the forecasting power of the SV model. Third, the regime-switching stochastic volatility model does a good job in capturing major events affecting the oil market. (author)

  17. Regime-Based Versus Static Asset Allocation: Letting the Data Speak

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Hansen, Bo William; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts present a big challenge to traditional strategic asset allocation. This article investigates whether regimebased asset allocation can effectively respond to changes in financial regimes at the portfolio level, in an effort to provide better long-term results than more static...... approaches can offer. The authors center their regime-based approach around a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters that can match financial markets’ tendency to change behavior abruptly and the fact that the new behavior often persists for several periods after a change. In an asset universe...

  18. Current US nuclear liability regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, O.F.

    2000-01-01

    The Price-Anderson Act Adopted by US Congress in 1957 as the world's first national nuclear liability regime. It is a comprehensive, complicated and unique system and stems from special features of US legal regime and federal system of government. It differs from other systems by providing for 'economic', not legal; channeling of liability to facility operator and not recommended as model for other states, but most features adopted by other states and international conventions

  19. Totalitäre Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Merkel, Wolfgang

    2004-01-01

    "The development of the term and the analytical concept of totalitarianism have gone through several stages since the 1920s. However, even in its most sophisticated form, the version seen in Friedrich/ Brzezinski, the concept exhibits substantial systematic classification problems and analytical weaknesses. This article attempts to frame the type of totalitarian regime within a general typology of political regimes. Special attention is dedicated to the problem of distinguishing autocra...

  20. Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change

    OpenAIRE

    Troy Davig; Eric M. Leeper

    2006-01-01

    This paper makes changes in monetary policy rules (or regimes) endogenous. Changes are triggered when certain endogenous variables cross specified thresholds. Rational expectations equilibria are examined in three models of threshold switching to illustrate that (i) expectations formation effects generated by the possibility of regime change can be quantitatively important; (ii) symmetric shocks can have asymmetric effects; (iii) endogenous switching is a natural way to formally model preempt...

  1. Effects of lead structure in Bering Sea pack ice on the flight costs of wintering spectacled eiders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bump, Joseph K.; Lovvorn, James R.

    2004-10-01

    In polar regions, sea ice is critical habitat for many marine birds and mammals. The quality of pack ice habitat depends on the duration and spacing of leads (openings in the ice), which determine access to water and air for diving endotherms, and how often and how far they must move as leads open and close. Recent warming trends have caused major changes in the extent and nature of sea ice at large scales used in climate models. However, no studies have analyzed lead structure in terms of habitat for ice-dependent endotherms, or effects of climate on ice habitat at scales relevant to their daily movements. Based on observations from an icebreaker and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images, we developed methods to describe the dynamics and thermodynamics of lead structure relative to use by spectacled eiders ( Somateria fischeri) wintering in pack ice of the Bering Sea. By correlating lead structure with weather variables, we then used these methods to estimate changes in lead dynamics from 1945 to 2002, and effects of such changes on flight costs of the eiders. For 1991-1992, when images were available about every 3 days throughout winter, SAR images were divided among five weather regimes defined by wind speed, wind direction, and air temperature. Based on 12.5-m pixels, lead shape, compass orientation, and fetch across leads did not differ among the weather regimes. However, the five regimes differed in total area of open water, leads per unit area, and distance between leads. Lead duration was modeled based on air temperature, wind, and fetch. Estimates of mean daily flight time for eiders, based on lead duration and distance between neighboring leads, differed among regimes by 0 to 15 min. Resulting flight costs varied from 0 to 158 kJ day -1, or from 0% to 11% of estimated field metabolic rate. Over 57 winters (1945-2002), variation among years in mean daily flight time was most influenced by the north-south wind component, which determined pack divergence

  2. Transition from weak wave turbulence regime to solitonic regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassani, Roumaissa; Mordant, Nicolas

    2017-11-01

    The Weak Turbulence Theory (WTT) is a statistical theory describing the interaction of a large ensemble of random waves characterized by very different length scales. For both weak non-linearity and weak dispersion a different regime is predicted where solitons propagate while keeping their shape unchanged. The question under investigation here is which regime between weak turbulence or soliton gas does the system choose ? We report an experimental investigation of wave turbulence at the surface of finite depth water in the gravity-capillary range. We tune the wave dispersion and the level of nonlinearity by modifying the depth of water and the forcing respectively. We use space-time resolved profilometry to reconstruct the deformed surface of water. When decreasing the water depth, we observe a drastic transition between weak turbulence at the weakest forcing and a solitonic regime at stronger forcing. We characterize the transition between both states by studying their Fourier Spectra. We also study the efficiency of energy transfer in the weak turbulence regime. We report a loss of efficiency of angular transfer as the dispersion of the wave is reduced until the system bifurcates into the solitonic regime. This project has recieved funding from the European Research Council (ERC, Grant Agreement No. 647018-WATU).

  3. Seasonal patterns in growth, blood consumption, and effects on hosts by parasitic-phase sea lampreys in the Great Lakes: an individual-based model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; Cochran, Philip A.; Bergstedt, Roger A.

    2003-01-01

    An individual-based model (IBM) was developed for sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes. The IBM was then calibrated to observed growth, by season, for sea lampreys in northern Lake Huron under two different water temperature regimes: a regime experienced by Seneca-strain lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and a regime experienced by Marquettestrain lake trout. Modeling results indicated that seasonal blood consumption under the Seneca regime was very similar to that under the Marquette regime. Simulated mortality of lake trout directly due to blood removal by sea lampreys occurred at nearly twice the rate during August and September under the Marquette regime than under the Seneca regime. However, cumulative sea lamprey-induced mortality on lake trout over the entire duration of the sea lamprey's parasitic phase was only 7% higher for the Marquette regime compared with the Seneca regime. Thus, these modeling results indicated that the strain composition of the host (lake trout) population was not important in determining total number of lake trout deaths or total blood consumption attributable to the sea lamprey population, given the sea lamprey growth pattern. Regardless of water temperature regime, both blood consumption rate by sea lampreys and rate of sea lamprey-induced mortality on lake trout peaked in late October. Elevated blood consumption in late October appeared to be unrelated to changes in water temperature. The IBM approach should prove useful in optimizing control of sea lampreys in the Laurentian Great Lakes.

  4. Choice Shifts in Groups

    OpenAIRE

    Kfir Eliaz; Debraj Ray

    2004-01-01

    The phenomenon of "choice shifts" in group decision-making is fairly ubiquitous in the social psychology literature. Faced with a choice between a ``safe" and ``risky" decision, group members appear to move to one extreme or the other, relative to the choices each member might have made on her own. Both risky and cautious shifts have been identified in different situations. This paper demonstrates that from an individual decision-making perspective, choice shifts may be viewed as a systematic...

  5. Lakes or wetlands? A comment on 'The middle Holocene climatic records from Arabia: Reassessing lacustrine environments, shift of ITCZ in Arabian Sea, and impacts of the southwest Indian and African monsoons' by Enzel et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Max; Matter, Albert; Parker, Adrian G.; Parton, Ash; Petraglia, Michael D.; Preston, Gareth W.; Preusser, Frank

    2017-01-01

    Enzel et al. (2015) reassess sedimentary records of Early to Mid-Holocene lake sites in Arabia based on a reinterpretation of published multiproxy data and a qualitative analysis of satellite imagery. The authors conclude that these sites represent palaeo-wetland environments rather than palaeolakes and that the majority of the Arabian Peninsula experienced no or, if at all, only a very minor increase of rainfall at that time mainly due to eastward expansion of the East African Summer Monsoon. We disagree with their reassessment and identify several cases where unequivocal evidence for early Late Pleistocene and Early to Mid-Holocene perennial lake environments in Arabia, lasting for centuries to millennia, was neglected by Enzel et al. (2015). Here we summarize findings which indicate the presence of lakes from the sites of Jubbah, Tayma, Mundafan (all Saudi Arabia), Wahalah, Awafi (both UAE), and the Wahiba Sands (Oman), supported by evidence including occurrence of barnacle colonies in living position, remnant bioclastic shoreline deposits, undisturbed varve formation, shallowing-up lacustrine sequences, various aquatic freshwater, brackish and saline micro- and macrofossils, such as ichnofaunal remains, which are the result of prolonged field-based research. While the precise depth, hydrology and ecology of these water bodies is still not entirely resolved, their perennial nature is indicative of a markedly increased precipitation regime, which, in combination with more abundant groundwater and increased spring outflow in terminal basins fed by charged aquifers, was sufficient to overcome evaporative losses. The palaeolakes' influence on sustaining prehistoric populations is corroborated by the presence of rich archaeological evidence.

  6. Implementing OpenShift

    CERN Document Server

    Miller, Adam

    2013-01-01

    A standard tutorial-based approach to using OpenShift and deploying custom or pre-built web applications to the OpenShift Online cloud.This book is for software developers and DevOps alike who are interested in learning how to use the OpenShift Platform-as-a-Service for developing and deploying applications, how the environment works on the back end, and how to deploy their very own open source Platform-as-a-Service based on the upstream OpenShift Origin project.

  7. Insomnia in shift work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallières, Annie; Azaiez, Aïda; Moreau, Vincent; LeBlanc, Mélanie; Morin, Charles M

    2014-12-01

    Shift work disorder involves insomnia and/or excessive sleepiness associated with the work schedule. The present study examined the impact of insomnia on the perceived physical and psychological health of adults working on night and rotating shift schedules compared to day workers. A total of 418 adults (51% women, mean age 41.4 years), including 51 night workers, 158 rotating shift workers, and 209 day workers were selected from an epidemiological study. An algorithm was used to classify each participant of the two groups (working night or rotating shifts) according to the presence or absence of insomnia symptoms. Each of these individuals was paired with a day worker according to gender, age, and income. Participants completed several questionnaires measuring sleep, health, and psychological variables. Night and rotating shift workers with insomnia presented a sleep profile similar to that of day workers with insomnia. Sleep time was more strongly related to insomnia than to shift work per se. Participants with insomnia in the three groups complained of anxiety, depression, and fatigue, and reported consuming equal amounts of sleep-aid medication. Insomnia also contributed to chronic pain and otorhinolaryngology problems, especially among rotating shift workers. Work productivity and absenteeism were more strongly related to insomnia. The present study highlights insomnia as an important component of the sleep difficulties experienced by shift workers. Insomnia may exacerbate certain physical and mental health problems of shift workers, and impair their quality of life. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Sea Dragon

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1997-01-01

    .... In preparation for these changes, the Navy is exploring new command and control relationships, and the Marine Corps established Sea Dragon to experiment with emerging technologies, operational...

  9. The political use of psychiatry: A comparison between totalitarian regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buoli, Massimiliano; Giannuli, Aldo Sabino

    2017-03-01

    After the end of Second World War, the recent experience of the Nazi horrors stimulated a debate about the political use of psychiatry. Over the years, the focus shifted on major dictatorships of the time and especially on Soviet Union. This article aims to provide a critical review of the ways in which psychiatry was used by totalitarian regimes of the 20th century. We summarized relevant literature about political use of psychiatry in totalitarian regimes of the 20th century, with particular focus on Fascism, Nazism, Argentina dictatorship, Soviet Union and China. One of the features that are common to most of the dictatorships is that the use of psychiatry has become more prominent when the regimes have had the need to make more acceptable the imprisonment of enemies in the eyes of the world. This for example happened in the Nazi regime when sterilization and killing of psychiatric patients was explained as a kind of euthanasia, or in the Soviet Union after the formal closure of the corrective labor camps and the slow resumption of relations with the capitalistic world, or in China to justify persecution of religious minorities and preserve economic relations with Western countries. Psychiatry has been variously used by totalitarian regimes as a means of political persecution and especially when it was necessary to make acceptable to public opinion the imprisonment of political opponents.

  10. Evaluation and Comparison of Extremal Hypothesis-Based Regime Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishwar Joshi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Regime channels are important for stable canal design and to determine river response to environmental changes, e.g., due to the construction of a dam, land use change, and climate shifts. A plethora of methods is available describing the hydraulic geometry of alluvial rivers in the regime. However, comparison of these methods using the same set of data seems lacking. In this study, we evaluate and compare four different extremal hypothesis-based regime methods, namely minimization of Froude number (MFN, maximum entropy and minimum energy dissipation rate (ME and MEDR, maximum flow efficiency (MFE, and Millar’s method, by dividing regime channel data into sand and gravel beds. The results show that for sand bed channels MFN gives a very high accuracy of prediction for regime channel width and depth. For gravel bed channels we find that MFN and ‘ME and MEDR’ give a very high accuracy of prediction for width and depth. Therefore the notion that extremal hypotheses which do not contain bank stability criteria are inappropriate for use is shown false as both MFN and ‘ME and MEDR’ lack bank stability criteria. Also, we find that bank vegetation has significant influence in the prediction of hydraulic geometry by MFN and ‘ME and MEDR’.

  11. On the regimes of premixing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angelini, S.; Theofanous, T.G.; Yuen, W.W. [California Univ., Santa Barbara, CA (United States). Center for Risk Studies and Safety

    1998-01-01

    The conditions of the MAGICO-2000 experiment are extended to more broadly investigate the regimes of premixing, and the corresponding internal structures of mixing zones. With the help of the data and numerical simulations using the computer code PM-ALPHA, we can distinguish extremes of behavior dominated by inertia and thermal effects - we name these the inertia and thermal regimes, respectively. This is an important distinction that should guide future experiments aimed at code verification in this area. Interesting intermediate behaviors are also delineated and discussed. (author)

  12. Weather regimes in past climate atmospheric general circulation model simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G. [CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. des Sci. du Climat et de l' Environnement; D' Andrea, F.; Vautard, R. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris (France); Valdes, P.J. [Department of Meteorology, University of Reading (United Kingdom)

    1999-10-01

    We investigate the climates of the present-day, inception of the last glaciation (115000 y ago) and last glacial maximum (21000 y ago) in the extratropical north Atlantic and Europe, as simulated by the laboratoire de Meteorologie dynamique atmospheric general circulation model. We use these simulations to investigate the low-frequency variability of the model in different climates. The aim is to evaluate whether changes in the intraseasonal variability, which we characterize using weather regimes, can help describe the impact of different boundary conditions on climate and give a better understanding of climate change processes. Weather regimes are defined as the most recurrent patterns in the 500 hPa geopotential height, using a clustering algorithm method. The regimes found in the climate simulations of the present-day and inception of the last glaciation are similar in their number and their structure. It is the regimes' populations which are found to be different for these climates, with an increase of the model's blocked regime and a decrease in the zonal regime at the inception of the last glaciation. This description reinforces the conclusions from a study of the differences between the climatological averages of the different runs and confirms the northeastward shift to the tail of the Atlantic storm-track, which would favour more precipitation over the site of growth of the Fennoscandian ice-sheet. On the other hand, the last glacial maximum results over this sector are not found to be classifiable, showing that the change in boundary conditions can be responsible for severe changes in the weather regime and low-frequency dynamics. The LGM Atlantic low-frequency variability appears to be dominated by a large-scale retrogressing wave with a period 40 to 50 days. (orig.)

  13. Shifted Independent Component Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørup, Morten; Madsen, Kristoffer Hougaard; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2007-01-01

    Delayed mixing is a problem of theoretical interest and practical importance, e.g., in speech processing, bio-medical signal analysis and financial data modelling. Most previous analyses have been based on models with integer shifts, i.e., shifts by a number of samples, and have often been carried...

  14. Homogeneous bilateral block shifts

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Douglas class were classified in [3]; they are unilateral block shifts of arbitrary block size (i.e. dim H(n) can be anything). However, no examples of irreducible homogeneous bilateral block shifts of block size larger than 1 were known until now.

  15. OpenShift cookbook

    CERN Document Server

    Gulati, Shekhar

    2014-01-01

    If you are a web application developer who wants to use the OpenShift platform to host your next big idea but are looking for guidance on how to achieve this, then this book is the first step you need to take. This is a very accessible cookbook where no previous knowledge of OpenShift is needed.

  16. Josephson shift registers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Przybysz, J.X.

    1989-01-01

    This paper gives a review of Josephson shift register circuits that were designed, fabricated, or tested, with emphasis on work in the 1980s. Operating speed is most important, since it often limits system performance. Older designs used square-wave clocks, but most modern designs use offset sine waves, with either two or three phases. Operating margins and gate bias uniformity are key concerns. The fastest measured Josephson shift register operated at 2.3 GHz, which compares well with a GaAs shift register that consumes 250 times more power. The difficulties of high-speed testing have prevented many Josephson shift registers from being operated at their highest speeds. Computer simulations suggest that 30-GHz operation is possible with current Nb/Al 2 O 3 /Nb technology. Junctions with critical current densities near 10 kA/cm 2 would make 100-GHz shift registers feasible

  17. A climatology of low level wind regimes over Central America using a weather type classification approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernán eSáenz

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Based on the potential of the weather types classification method to study synoptic features, this study proposes the application of such methodology for the identification of the main large scale patterns related with weather in Central America. Using ERA Interim low-level winds in a domain that encompasses the intra-Americas sea, the eastern tropical Pacific, southern North America, Central America and northern South America; the K-means clustering algorithm was applied to find recurrent regimes of low-level winds. Eleven regimes were identified and good coherency between the results and known features of regional circulation was found. It was determined that the main large scale patterns can be either locally forced or a response to tropical-extratropical interactions. Moreover, the local forcing dominates the summer regimes whereas mid latitude interactions lead winter regimes. The study of the relationship between the large scale patterns and regional precipitation shows that winter regimes are related with the Caribbean-Pacific precipitation seesaw. Summer regimes, on the other hand, enhance the Caribbean-Pacific precipitation contrasting distribution as a function of the dominant regimes. A strong influence of ENSO on the frequency and duration of the regimes was found. It was determined that the specific effect of ENSO on the regimes depends on whether the circulation is locally forced or lead by the interaction between the tropics and the mid-latitudes. The study of the cold surges using the information of the identified regimes revealed that three regimes are linkable with the occurrence of cold surges that affect Central America and its precipitation. As the winter regimes are largely dependent of mid-latitude interaction with the tropics, the effect that ENSO has on the Jet Stream is reflected in the winter regimes. An automated analysis of large scale conditions based on reanalysis and/or model data seems useful for both dynamical

  18. Evaluation of Five Different Regimes For the Treatment of Vitiligo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J S Pasricha

    1989-01-01

    Full Text Available Response of vitiligo patients to five different regimes was evaluated taking only those patients who had either static or progressively increasing lesions. Selection of the regimen depended upon the clinical characteristics of the disease. Each regime was tried for at least 4 months and if a patient didnot improve with one regime, he was shifted to another regime. A patient was considered to have improved, if the lesions started regimenting or the previously progressive lesions stopped increasing further. Regime I consisted of 150 mg levamisol orally on two consecutive days per week, given to 13 cases, it resulted in improvement in 7 (53.80/o. Regime II consisted of levamisole in the same dose combined with once a day topical massage with 0.1% fluocinolone acetonide acetate cream; it led to improvement in 27 (81.8% of the 33 cases. Regime III consisted of 3 mg betamethasone orally on alternate days combined with levamisole and topical fluocinolone; given to 32 cases, it was successful in 28 (87.50/o. A combination of 2 mg betamethasone orally alternating with 20 mg 8-methoxypsoralen and sun exposure (regime IV caused improvement in 17 (85% of the 20 cases. An oral mini pulse consisting of 5 mg betamethasone orally twice a week combined with 50 mg cyclophosphimide daily orally (regime V was successful in 20 (90.9% of the 22 cases, the remaining two cases showed unprovement when the dose ofbetamethasonc .was increased from 5 mg to 7.5 mg twice a week. Thus ultimately each one of the 91 patients responded to one or the other regime. The side effects were minimal and insignificant.The degree of improvement at the time of analysis was 100% in 23.3% cases, 50-100% in 44.2′Yo cases and less than 50% in 32.5%, after 4-14 months of treatment. It is felt that the results may be better after a longer follow-up although all patients are not expected to get complete repigmentation.

  19. Community variability and ecological functioning: 40 years of change in the North Sea benthos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clare, D S; Robinson, L A; Frid, C L J

    2015-06-01

    Using established associations between species traits (life history, morphological and behavioural characteristics) and key ecological functions, we applied biological traits analysis (BTA) to investigate the consequences of 40 years of change in two North Sea benthic communities. Ecological functioning (trait composition) was found to be statistically indistinguishable across periods that differed significantly in taxonomic composition. A temporary alteration to functioning was, however, inferred at both sampling stations; coinciding with the North Sea regime shift of the 1980s. Trait composition recovered after 1 year at the station located inside the grounds of a trawl fishery, whereas the station located outside the main area of fishing activity underwent a six-year period of significantly altered, and temporally unstable, trait composition. A further alteration to functioning was inferred at the fished station, when the population of a newly established species rapidly increased in numbers. The results suggest that density compensation by characteristically similar (redundant) taxa acts to buffer changes to ecological functioning over time, but that functional stability is subject to aperiodic disruption due to substitutions of dissimilar taxa or uncompensated population fluctuations. The rate at which ecological functioning stabilises and recovers appears to be dependent on environmental context; e.g. disturbance regime. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Integrating out the Dirac sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karbstein, Felix

    2009-01-01

    We introduce a new method for dealing with fermionic quantum field theories amenable to a mean-field-type approximation. In this work we focus on the relativistic Hartree approximation. Our aim is to integrate out the Dirac sea and derive a no-sea effective theory'' with positive energy single particle states only. As the derivation of the no-sea effective theory involves only standard Feynman diagrams, our approach is quite general and not restricted to particular space-time dimensions. We develop and illustrate the approach in the ''large N'' limit of the Gross-Neveu model family in 1+1 dimensions. As the Gross-Neveu model has been intensely studied and several analytical solutions are known for this model, it is an ideal testing ground for our no-sea effective theory approach. The chiral Gross-Neveu model, also referred to as 1+1 dimensional Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model, turns out to be of particular interest. In this case, we explicitly derive a consistent effective theory featuring both elementary ''π meson'' fields and (positive energy) ''quark'' fields, starting from a purely fermionic quantum field theory. In the second part of this work, we apply our approach to the Walecka model in 1+1 and 3+1 dimensions. As the Dirac sea caused considerable difficulties in attempts to base nuclear physics on field theoretic models like the Walecka model, mean-field calculations were typically done without the sea. We confront several of these mean-field theory results with our no-sea effective theory approach. The potential of our approach is twofold. While the no-sea effective theory can be utilized to provide new analytical insights in particular parameter regimes, it also sheds new light on more fundamental issues as the explicit emergence of effective, Dirac-sea induced multi-fermion interactions in an effective theory with positive energy states only. (orig.)

  1. Land degradation and property regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul M. Beaumont; Robert T. Walker

    1996-01-01

    This paper addresses the relationship between property regimes and land degradation outcomes, in the context of peasant agriculture. We consider explicitly whether private property provides for superior soil resource conservation, as compared to common property and open access. To assess this we implement optimization algorithms on a supercomputer to address resource...

  2. Regime identification in ASDEX Upgrade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giannone, L; Sips, A C C; Kardaun, O; Spreitler, F; Suttrop, W

    2004-01-01

    The ability to recognize the transition from the L-mode to the H-mode or from the H-mode to the improved H-mode reliably from a conveniently small number of measurements in real time is of increasing importance for machine control. Discriminant analysis has been applied to regime identification of plasma discharges in the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak. An observation consists of a set of plasma parameters averaged over a time slice in a discharge. The data set consists of all observations over different discharges and time slices. Discriminant analysis yields coefficients allowing the classification of a new observation. The results of a frequentist and a formal Bayesian approach to discriminant analysis are compared. With five plasma variables, a failure rate of 1.3% for predicting the L-mode and the H-mode confinement regime was achieved. With five plasma variables, a failure rate of 5.3% for predicting the H-mode and the improved H-mode confinement regime was achieved. The coefficients derived by discriminant analysis have been applied subsequently to discharges to illustrate the operation of regime identification in a real time control system

  3. Monetary regimes in open economies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Korpos, A.

    2006-01-01

    This thesis presents a two-country open economy framework for the analysis of strategic interactions among monetary authorities and wage bargaining institutions. From this perspective, the thesis investigates the economic consequences of replacing flexible and fixed exchange rate regimes with a

  4. Broad-scale climate influences on spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus, L.) recruitment in the Western Baltic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gröger, Joachim P; Hinrichsen, Hans-Harald; Polte, Patrick

    2014-01-01

    Climate forcing in complex ecosystems can have profound implications for ecosystem sustainability and may thus challenge a precautionary ecosystem management. Climatic influences documented to affect various ecological functions on a global scale, may themselves be observed on quantitative or qualitative scales including regime shifts in complex marine ecosystems. This study investigates the potential climatic impact on the reproduction success of spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) in the Western Baltic Sea (WBSS herring). To test for climate effects on reproduction success, the regionally determined and scientifically well-documented spawning grounds of WBSS herring represent an ideal model system. Climate effects on herring reproduction were investigated using two global indices of atmospheric variability and sea surface temperature, represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), respectively, and the Baltic Sea Index (BSI) which is a regional-scale atmospheric index for the Baltic Sea. Moreover, we combined a traditional approach with modern time series analysis based on a recruitment model connecting parental population components with reproduction success. Generalized transfer functions (ARIMAX models) allowed evaluating the dynamic nature of exogenous climate processes interacting with the endogenous recruitment process. Using different model selection criteria our results reveal that in contrast to NAO and AMO, the BSI shows a significant positive but delayed signal on the annual dynamics of herring recruitment. The westward influence of the Siberian high is considered strongly suppressing the influence of the NAO in this area leading to a higher explanatory power of the BSI reflecting the atmospheric pressure regime on a North-South transect between Oslo, Norway and Szczecin, Poland. We suggest incorporating climate-induced effects into stock and risk assessments and management strategies as part

  5. Broad-scale climate influences on spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus, L. recruitment in the Western Baltic Sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joachim P Gröger

    Full Text Available Climate forcing in complex ecosystems can have profound implications for ecosystem sustainability and may thus challenge a precautionary ecosystem management. Climatic influences documented to affect various ecological functions on a global scale, may themselves be observed on quantitative or qualitative scales including regime shifts in complex marine ecosystems. This study investigates the potential climatic impact on the reproduction success of spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus in the Western Baltic Sea (WBSS herring. To test for climate effects on reproduction success, the regionally determined and scientifically well-documented spawning grounds of WBSS herring represent an ideal model system. Climate effects on herring reproduction were investigated using two global indices of atmospheric variability and sea surface temperature, represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO, respectively, and the Baltic Sea Index (BSI which is a regional-scale atmospheric index for the Baltic Sea. Moreover, we combined a traditional approach with modern time series analysis based on a recruitment model connecting parental population components with reproduction success. Generalized transfer functions (ARIMAX models allowed evaluating the dynamic nature of exogenous climate processes interacting with the endogenous recruitment process. Using different model selection criteria our results reveal that in contrast to NAO and AMO, the BSI shows a significant positive but delayed signal on the annual dynamics of herring recruitment. The westward influence of the Siberian high is considered strongly suppressing the influence of the NAO in this area leading to a higher explanatory power of the BSI reflecting the atmospheric pressure regime on a North-South transect between Oslo, Norway and Szczecin, Poland. We suggest incorporating climate-induced effects into stock and risk assessments and management

  6. Seasonal and inter-annual temperature variability in the bottom waters over the western Black Sea shelf

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. I. Shapiro

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Long-term changes in the state of the Bottom Shelf Water (BSW on the Western shelf of the Black Sea are assessed using analysis of intra-seasonal and inter-annual temperature variations. For the purpose of this study the BSW is defined as such shelf water mass between the seabed and the upper mixed layer (bounded by the σθ = 14.2 isopycnal which has limited ability to mix vertically with oxygen-rich surface waters during the warm season due to formation of a seasonal pycnocline. A long-term time series of temperature anomalies in the BSW is constructed from in-situ observations taken over the 2nd half of the 20th century. The BSW is shown to occupy nearly half of the shelf area during the summer stratification period (May–November.The results reveal a warm phase in the 1960s/70s, followed by a cold phase between 1985 and 1995 and a further warming after 1995. The transition between the warm and cold periods coincides with a regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem. While it was confirmed that the memory of winter convection is well preserved over the following months in the deep sea, the signal of winter cooling in the BSW significantly reduces during the warm season. The potential of the BSW to ventilate horizontally during the warm season with the deep-sea waters is assessed using isopycnic analysis of temperature variations. It is shown that temperature in the BSW is stronger correlated with the temperature of Cold Intermediate Waters (CIW in the deep sea than with the severity of the previous winters, thus indicating that the isopycnal exchanges with the deep sea are more important for inter-annual/inter-decadal variability of the BSW on the western Black Sea shelf than effects of winter convection on the shelf itself.

  7. Physical control of the distributions of a key Arctic copepod in the Northeast Chukchi Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Stephen M.; Ashjian, Carin J.; Feng, Zhixuan; Jones, Benjamin; Chen, Changsheng; Zhang, Yu

    2017-10-01

    The Chukchi Sea is a highly advective regime dominated by a barotropically driven northward flow modulated by wind driven currents that reach the bottom boundary layer of this shallow environment. A general northward gradient of decreasing temperature and food concentration leads to geographically divergent copepod growth and development rates between north and south. The physics of this system establish the biological connection potential between specific regions. The copepod Calanus glacialis is a key grazer, predator, and food source in Arctic shelf seas. Its summer distribution and abundance have direct effects on much of the food web, from phytoplankton to migrating bowhead whales. In August 2012 and 2013, C. glacialis distributions were quantified over Hanna Shoal in the northeast Chukchi Sea. Here an individual-based model with Lagrangian tracking and copepod life stage development capabilities is used to advect and develop these distributions forward and backward in time to determine the source (production locations) and sink (potential overwintering locations) regions of the transient Hanna Shoal C. glacialis population. Hanna Shoal supplies diapause competent C. glacialis to both the Beaufort Slope and the Chukchi Cap, mainly receives juveniles from the broad slope between Hanna Shoal and Herald Valley and receives second year adults from as far south as the Anadyr Gulf and as near as the broad slope between Hanna Shoal and Herald Valley. The 2013 sink region was shifted west relative to the 2012 region and the 2013 adult source region was shifted north relative to the 2012 adult source region. These connection potentials were not sensitive to precise times and locations of release, but were quite sensitive to depth of release. These patterns demonstrate how interannual differences in the physical conditions well south of Hanna Shoal play a critical role in determining the abundance and distribution of a key food source over Hanna Shoal and in the

  8. Nurses' shift reports

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buus, Niels; Hoeck, Bente; Hamilton, Bridget Elizabeth

    2017-01-01

    AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: To identify reporting practices that feature in studies of nurses' shift reports across diverse nursing specialities. The objectives were to perform an exhaustive systematic literature search and to critically review the quality and findings of qualitative field studies...... of nurses' shift reports. BACKGROUND: Nurses' shift reports are routine occurrences in healthcare organisations that are viewed as crucial for patient outcomes, patient safety and continuity of care. Studies of communication between nurses attend primarily to 1:1 communication and analyse the adequacy...... and accuracy of patient information and feature handovers at the bedside. Still, verbal reports between groups of nurses about patients are commonplace. Shift reports are obvious sites for studying the situated accomplishment of professional nursing at the group level. This review is focused exclusively...

  9. Shift Verification and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pandya, Tara M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Evans, Thomas M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Davidson, Gregory G [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Johnson, Seth R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Godfrey, Andrew T. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-09-07

    This documentation outlines the verification and validation of Shift for the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). Five main types of problems were used for validation: small criticality benchmark problems; full-core reactor benchmarks for light water reactors; fixed-source coupled neutron-photon dosimetry benchmarks; depletion/burnup benchmarks; and full-core reactor performance benchmarks. We compared Shift results to measured data and other simulated Monte Carlo radiation transport code results, and found very good agreement in a variety of comparison measures. These include prediction of critical eigenvalue, radial and axial pin power distributions, rod worth, leakage spectra, and nuclide inventories over a burn cycle. Based on this validation of Shift, we are confident in Shift to provide reference results for CASL benchmarking.

  10. Revamp urged for Norway's offshore regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that the Norwegian government has come under renewed pressure from offshore operators to fine tune its licensing procedures and tax regime. The need for change was emphasized at the Advanced Petroleum Conference in Stavanger attended by senior personnel from companies active in the Norwegian and British sectors of the North Sea. Companies have had some success in the tax front, winning changes in proposals from Norway's Ministry of Finance for offshore tax reform. The changes were required to offset a general reduction in the corporate tax to 28% from 50.8%. Norsk Shell has told the government that in view of uncertainty about taxes it will not take part in the normal industry-government discussions about what acreage should be included in the 14th licensing round to be announced next year. This action does not bar Shell from participating in the licensing round when it gets under way. Shell has the if the tax package is not changed sharply in its passage through Storting it is unlikely to bid for new licenses

  11. Molecular Electronic Shift Registers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beratan, David N.; Onuchic, Jose N.

    1990-01-01

    Molecular-scale shift registers eventually constructed as parts of high-density integrated memory circuits. In principle, variety of organic molecules makes possible large number of different configurations and modes of operation for such shift-register devices. Several classes of devices and implementations in some specific types of molecules proposed. All based on transfer of electrons or holes along chains of repeating molecular units.

  12. Exchange rate regimes and monetary arrangements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Ribnikar

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available There is a close relationship between a country’s exchange rate regime and monetary arrangement and if we are to examine monetary arrangements then exchange rate regimes must first be analysed. Within the conventional and most widely used classification of exchange rate regimes into rigid and flexible or into polar regimes (hard peg and float on one side, and intermediate regimes on the other there, is a much greater variety among intermediate regimes. A more precise and, as will be seen, more useful classification of exchange rate regimes is the first topic of the paper. The second topic is how exchange rate regimes influence or determine monetary arrangements and monetary policy or monetary policy regimes: monetary autonomy versus monetary nonautonomy and discretion in monetary policy versus commitment in monetary policy. Both topics are important for countries on their path to the EU and the euro area

  13. River flow regime and snow cover of the Pamir Alay (Central Asia) in a changing climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chevallier, P.; Pouyaud, B.; Mojaisky, M.; Bolgov, M.; Olsson, O.; Bauer, M.; Froebrich, J.

    2014-01-01

    The Vakhsh and Pyandj rivers, main tributaries of the Amu Darya River in the mountainous region of the Pamir Alay, play an important role in the water resources of the Aral Sea basin (Central Asia). In this region, the glaciers and snow cover significantly influence the water cycle and flow regime,

  14. Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundstrom, Shana M.; Eason, Tarsha; Nelson, R. John; Angeler, David G.; Barichievy, Chris; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Graham, Nicholas A.J.; Granholm, Dean; Gunderson, Lance; Knutson, Melinda; Nash, Kirsty L.; Spanbauer, Trisha; Stow, Craig A.; Allen, Craig R.

    2017-01-01

    Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory-based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (U.S. Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps and multivariate analyses such as nMDS and cluster analysis. We successfully detected spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change.

  15. Cloud regimes as phase transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stechmann, Samuel; Hottovy, Scott

    2017-11-01

    Clouds are repeatedly identified as a leading source of uncertainty in future climate predictions. Of particular importance are stratocumulus clouds, which can appear as either (i) closed cells that reflect solar radiation back to space or (ii) open cells that allow solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. Here we show that these clouds regimes - open versus closed cells - fit the paradigm of a phase transition. In addition, this paradigm characterizes pockets of open cells (POCs) as the interface between the open- and closed-cell regimes, and it identifies shallow cumulus clouds as a regime of higher variability. This behavior can be understood using an idealized model for the dynamics of atmospheric water as a stochastic diffusion process. Similar viewpoints of deep convection and self-organized criticality will also be discussed. With these new conceptual viewpoints, ideas from statistical mechanics could potentially be used for understanding uncertainties related to clouds in the climate system and climate predictions. The research of S.N.S. is partially supported by a Sloan Research Fellowship, ONR Young Investigator Award N00014-12-1-0744, and ONR MURI Grant N00014-12-1-0912.

  16. Sea Legs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macdonald, Kenneth C.

    Forty-foot, storm-swept seas, Spitzbergen polar bears roaming vast expanses of Arctic ice, furtive exchanges of forbidden manuscripts in Cold War Moscow, the New York city fashion scene, diving in mini-subs to the sea floor hot srings, life with the astronauts, romance and heartbreak, and invading the last bastions of male exclusivity: all are present in this fast-moving, non-fiction account of one woman' fascinating adventures in the world of marine geology and oceanography.

  17. Quaternary Sea-ice history in the Arctic Ocean based on a new Ostracode sea-ice proxy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, T. M.; Gemery, L.; Briggs, W.M.; Jakobsson, M.; Polyak, L.; Brouwers, E.M.

    2010-01-01

    Paleo-sea-ice history in the Arctic Ocean was reconstructed using the sea-ice dwelling ostracode Acetabulastoma arcticum from late Quaternary sediments from the Mendeleyev, Lomonosov, and Gakkel Ridges, the Morris Jesup Rise and the Yermak Plateau. Results suggest intermittently high levels of perennial sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 (25-45 ka), minimal sea ice during the last deglacial (16-11 ka) and early Holocene thermal maximum (11-5 ka) and increasing sea ice during the mid-to-late Holocene (5-0 ka). Sediment core records from the Iceland and Rockall Plateaus show that perennial sea ice existed in these regions only during glacial intervals MIS 2, 4, and 6. These results show that sea ice exhibits complex temporal and spatial variability during different climatic regimes and that the development of modern perennial sea ice may be a relatively recent phenomenon. ?? 2010.

  18. Seasonal and inter-annual temperature variability in the bottom waters over the Black Sea shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, G. I.; Wobus, F.; Aleynik, D. L.

    2011-02-01

    Long-term changes in the state of the Bottom Shelf Water (BSW) on the Western shelf of the Black Sea are assessed using analysis of intra- and inter-annual variations of temperature as well as their relations to physical parameters of both shelf and deep-sea waters. First, large data sets of in-situ observations over the 20th century are compiled into high-resolution monthly climatology at different depth levels. Then, the temperature anomalies from the climatic mean are calculated and aggregated into spatial compartments and seasonal bins to reveal temporal evolution of the BSW. For the purpose of this study the BSW is defined as such shelf water body between the seabed and the upper mixed layer (bounded by the σθ = 14.2 isopycnal) which has limited ability to mix vertically with oxygen-rich surface waters during the warm season (May-November) due to the formation of a seasonal pycnocline. The effects of atmospheric processes at the surface on the BSW are hence suppressed as well as the action of the "biological pump". The vertical extent of the near- bottom waters is determined based on energy considerations and the structure of the seasonal pycnocline, whilst the horizontal extent is controlled by the shelf break, where strong along-slope currents hinder exchanges with the deep sea. The BSW is shown to occupy nearly half of the area of the shelf during the summer stratification period. The potential of the BSW to ventilate horizontally during the warm season with the deep-sea waters is assessed using isopycnic analysis of temperature variations. A long-term time series of temperature anomalies in the BSW is constructed from observations during the May-November period for the 2nd half of the 20th century. The results reveal a warm phase in the 1960s/70s, followed by cooling of the BSW during 1980-2001. The transition between the warm and cold periods coincides with a regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem. While it was confirmed that the memory of winter

  19. Amino acid stable isotope applications to deep-sea corals: A molecular geochemistry approach to reconstructing past ocean conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, K.; McCarthy, M. D.; Guilderson, T. P.; Sherwood, O.; Williams, B.; Larsen, T.; Glynn, D. S.

    2017-12-01

    Future climate change is predicted to alter ocean productivity, food web dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, and the efficacy of the biological pump. Proteinaceous deep-sea corals act as "living sediment traps," providing long-term, high-resolution records of exported surface ocean production and a window into past changes in ocean condition as a historical context for potential future changes. Here, we present recent work developing the application of compound-specific stable isotope analysis of individual amino acids to proteinaceous deep-sea corals to reconstruct past changes in phytoplankton community composition and biogeochemical cycling. We present new calibrations for molecular isotope comparisons between metabolically active coral polyp tissue and bioarchival proteinaceous skeleton. We then applied these techniques to deep-sea corals from the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) to reconstruct centennial to millennial time scale changes in phytoplankton community composition and biogeochemical cycling as a function of regional climate change. This work suggests that the NPSG has undergone multiple major phytoplankton regime shifts over the last millennium between prokaryotic and eukaryotic phytoplankton communities and associated sources of nitrogen fueling production. The most recent regime, which started around the end of the Little Ice Age and the onset of the Industrial era, is unprecedented in the last 1000 years and resulted in a 30-50% increase in diazotrophic cyanobacteria contribution to export production and an associated 17-27% increase in N2-fixation in the NPSG over last century. By offering the first direct phylogenetic context for long-term shifts in isotopic records of exported particulate organic matter, our data represent a major step forward in understanding the evolution of marine plankton community dynamics, food web architecture, biogeochemical cycling, and the climate feedback loops through the biological pump.

  20. Extreme Temperature Regimes during the Cool Season and their Associated Large-Scale Circulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Z.

    2015-12-01

    In the cool season (November-March), extreme temperature events (ETEs) always hit the continental United States (US) and provide significant societal impacts. According to the anomalous amplitudes of the surface air temperature (SAT), there are two typical types of ETEs, e.g. cold waves (CWs) and warm waves (WWs). This study used cluster analysis to categorize both CWs and WWs into four distinct regimes respectively and investigated their associated large-scale circulations on intra-seasonal time scale. Most of the CW regimes have large areal impact over the continental US. However, the distribution of cold SAT anomalies varies apparently in four regimes. In the sea level, the four CW regimes are characterized by anomalous high pressure over North America (near and to west of cold anomaly) with different extension and orientation. As a result, anomalous northerlies along east flank of anomalous high pressure convey cold air into the continental US. To the middle troposphere, the leading two groups feature large-scale and zonally-elongated circulation anomaly pattern, while the other two regimes exhibit synoptic wavetrain pattern with meridionally elongated features. As for the WW regimes, there are some patterns symmetry and anti-symmetry with respect to CW regimes. The WW regimes are characterized by anomalous low pressure and southerlies wind over North America. The first and fourth groups are affected by remote forcing emanating from North Pacific, while the others appear mainly locally forced.

  1. Sea level trends in South East Asian Seas (SEAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

    2014-10-01

    Southeast Asian Seas (SEAS) span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The SEAS regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost two decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17 year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement in areas and at times of strong signal to noise associated decadal variability forced by low frequency variations in Pacific trade winds. The SEAS region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer time scales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past twenty years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the SEAS region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the SEAS regional sea level trends during 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the SEAS will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

  2. Abrupt environmental shift associated with changes in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In addition, signals, coherent with the 1996 shift recorded in sea surface temperatures, were also found in atmospheric surface pressure and zonal wind data for that region; interannual coastal SST variability is also shown to be correlated with zonal wind-stress forcing. As a result, increased wind-induced coastal upwelling ...

  3. Alberta oil sands royalty regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asgarpour, S.

    2004-01-01

    The long term objective of the Oil Sands Business Unit of Alberta Energy is to pave the way for Alberta's bitumen production to reach 3 million barrels per day by 2020. This presentation described the national government's role in resource development. It was emphasized that since the Crown is the owner of the oil sands resource, it would benefit by providing strategic leadership and by generating a larger royalty base. The oil sands fiscal regime was described with reference to generic royalty, risk sharing, investment, and project economics. Business rule principles were also outlined along with criteria for project expansions. Both upstream and downstream challenges and opportunities were listed. 4 figs

  4. Preventing Escalation in the South China Sea Disputed Waters: A Comparative Study of Republic of the Philippines and Socialist Republic of Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Problem of Maritime Cooperation in the South China Sea,” in Security and International Politics in the South China Sea, eds. Sam Bateman and Ralf Emmers...South China Sea,” in Security and International Politics in the South China Sea: Towards a cooperative management regime, eds. Sam Bateman and Ralf...Cooperation in the South China Sea.” In Security and International Politics in the South China Sea, edited by Sam Bateman and Ralf Emmers. Oxon, UK

  5. Land-Sea Correlation of Holocene Records in NW Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Alvare, R.; Costas, S.; Bernardez, P.; Frances, G.; Alejo, I.

    2005-12-01

    Holocene climate fluctuations in the temperate region of the Northeast Atlantic have been established by comparing marine and terrestrial proxies. This work is based on suction-cores collected in the Cies Islands lagoon (NW Spain) and vibro-cores from the adjacent continental shelf. The lower Holocene marine record (9400-7000 yr BP) consists on sandy transgressive facies overlying fluvial Pleistocene deposits. During this time the continental shelf was dominated by high energy processes linked to the progressive and fast sea level rise. The rate of sea level rise sharply decelerated at 7000 yr BP and a high productive marine environment was fully established, as revealed by planktonic foraminifera assemblages and biogeochemical markers. In the terrestrial areas, peat deposits were formed beginning around 6000 yr BP in the deeper parts of the paleo-relief that was developed above the granitic basement. The peat was deposited in a fresh-water shallow coastal lake under warm and humid conditions that are brought about by prevailing SW winds. From 4800 yr BP, a progressive rainfall decrease provoked the lowering of the lake level and a weaker fluvial influence on the adjacent shelf. The prevailing eastern winds caused significantly drier conditions between 4000 and 3200 yr BP. During this period the coastal lake dried and the peat layer was covered by aeolian deposits. At the continental shelf a strong stratification of the water column induced a fall in the productivity. The end of this period is marked by the increase of storm regimes caused by a shift to prevailing SW winds. The last 3000 years are characterized by humid and warm conditions, and the enhancement of upwelling regime and terrestrial sediment supply. In Cies Islands, a sand barrier-lagoon complex was developed as a consequence of both the sea level rise and the inundation of the lower areas in the island.

  6. Mechanical spectral shift reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sherwood, D.G.; Wilson, J.F.; Salton, R.B.; Fensterer, H.F.

    1981-01-01

    A mechanical spectral shift reactor comprises apparatus for inserting and withdrawing water displacer elements from the reactor core for selectively changing the water-moderator volume in the core thereby changing the reactivity of the core. The apparatus includes drivemechanisms for moving the displacer elements relative to the core and guide mechanisms for guiding the displayer rods through the reactor vessel

  7. Mechanical spectral shift reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sherwood, D.G.; Wilson, J.F.; Salton, R.B.; Fensterer, H.F.

    1982-01-01

    A mechanical spectral shift reactor comprises apparatus for inserting and withdrawing water displacer elements from the reactor core for selectively changing the water-moderator volume in the core thereby changing the reactivity of the core. The apparatus includes drive mechanisms for moving the displacer elements relative to the core and guide mechanisms for guiding the displacer rods through the reactor vessel. (author)

  8. Legal regime of the Bering Strait and security of navigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr S. Skaridov

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective to establish the legal regime and security of navigation in the Bering Strait. Methods formal logical method systemic method comparative legal method statistical method. Results in the recent years specialized publications contain numerous publications on the problems of development of Arctic shipping and the future intensification of the use of the Northern Sea Route. Whatever Arctic routes may be chosen by the skippers the vessels will have to overcome the narrowness of the Bering Strait. If the existing estimates are reasonable and the navigation of the NorthWest Sea Passage will increase it is appropriate to ask whether the legal regime and security means are adapted to the possible increase of commercial shipping and military navigation. In this respect the author formulates the legal measures aimed at ensuring security in the Bering Strait area with the account of growing cargo traffic. Scientific novelty for the first time the article proves the necessity to include into the Bering Strait area the territories bounded from the north by the east and west passages formed by the Diomede Islands and continental coasts of the Russian Federation and the United States and from the south ndash by the passages between the Cape of Chukotka and Cape Sevuokuk of St. Lawrence Island Cape Sivuka and the mainland of Alaska in order to protect the sea natural landscape and to ensure the maritime safety. The opinion is substantiated about the necessity to equip the marine passages forming the waters of the Bering Strait with a security system. The proposed legal regime of ensuring the safety of navigation in the Bering Strait which includes the common navigation rules establishing the areas of the vessel traffic separation designation of areas of marine reserves and organizationallegal means for damping the dangerous situations. Practical significance the findings and conclusions of the article can be used in scientific educational and law

  9. Adaptation in Collaborative Governance Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emerson, Kirk; Gerlak, Andrea K.

    2014-10-01

    Adaptation and the adaptive capacity of human and environmental systems have been of central concern to natural and social science scholars, many of whom characterize and promote the need for collaborative cross-boundary systems that are seen as flexible and adaptive by definition. Researchers who study collaborative governance systems in the public administration, planning and policy literature have paid less attention to adaptive capacity specifically and institutional adaptation in general. This paper bridges the two literatures and finds four common dimensions of capacity, including structural arrangements, leadership, knowledge and learning, and resources. In this paper, we focus on institutional adaptation in the context of collaborative governance regimes and try to clarify and distinguish collaborative capacity from adaptive capacity and their contributions to adaptive action. We posit further that collaborative capacities generate associated adaptive capacities thereby enabling institutional adaptation within collaborative governance regimes. We develop these distinctions and linkages between collaborative and adaptive capacities with the help of an illustrative case study in watershed management within the National Estuary Program.

  10. Sea Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perovich, D.; Gerland, S.; Hendricks, S.; Meier, Walter N.; Nicolaus, M.; Richter-Menge, J.; Tschudi, M.

    2013-01-01

    During 2013, Arctic sea ice extent remained well below normal, but the September 2013 minimum extent was substantially higher than the record-breaking minimum in 2012. Nonetheless, the minimum was still much lower than normal and the long-term trend Arctic September extent is -13.7 per decade relative to the 1981-2010 average. The less extreme conditions this year compared to 2012 were due to cooler temperatures and wind patterns that favored retention of ice through the summer. Sea ice thickness and volume remained near record-low levels, though indications are of slightly thicker ice compared to the record low of 2012.

  11. Measuring the effectiveness of international environmental regimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helm, C.; Sprinz, D.F.

    1999-05-01

    While past research has emphasized the importance of international regimes for international governance, systematic assessments of regime effects are missing. This article derives a standardized measurement concept for the effectiveness of international environmental regimes by developing an operational rational choice calculus to evaluate actual policy simultaneously against a non-regime counterfactual and a collective optimum. Subsequently, the empirical feasibility of the measurement instrument is demonstrated by way of two international treaties regulating transboundary air pollution in Europe. The results demonstrate that the regimes indeed show positive effects - but fall substantially short of the collective optima. (orig.)

  12. Sensitivity to spatial and temporal scale and fire regime inputs in deriving fire regime condition class

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda Tedrow; Wendel J. Hann

    2015-01-01

    The Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) is a composite departure measure that compares current vegetation structure and fire regime to historical reference conditions. FRCC is computed as the average of: 1) Vegetation departure (VDEP) and 2) Regime (frequency and severity) departure (RDEP). In addition to the FRCC rating, the Vegetation Condition Class (VCC) and Regime...

  13. ASSESSING THE STATE OF THE PELAGIC HABITAT: A CASE STUDY OF PLANKTON AND ITS ENVIRONMENT IN THE WESTERN IRISH SEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cordula Scherer

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Much work had been undertaken on tracking change in the condition of marine pelagic ecosystems and on identifying regime shifts. However, it is also necessary to relate change to states of good ecosystem health or what the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD calls 'Good Environmental Status' (GES. Drawing on existing scientific and legislative principles, including those of OSPAR's 'Strategy to Combat Eutrophication', we propose a framework for assessing the status of what the MSFD calls the 'pelagic habitat' in temperate coastal seas. The framework uses knowledge of local ecohydrodynamic conditions, especially those relating to the stratification and optical environment, to guide expectations of what would be recognised as healthy in terms of ecosystem 'organisation' and 'vigour'. We apply this framework to the seasonally stratified regime of the Western Irish Sea, drawing on published and new work on stratification, nutrient and phytoplankton seasonal cycles, zooplankton, and the implications of plankton community structure and production for higher trophic levels. We conclude that, despite human pressures including nutrient enrichment, and the food-web effects of fisheries, the pelagic ecosystem here is in GES, and hence may be used as a reference for the 'Plankton Index' method of tracking change in state space in seasonally stratified waters.

  14. Sea level change

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Church, J.A.; Clark, P.U.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A.; Merrifield, M.A.; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Stammer, D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    This chapter considers changes in global mean sea level, regional sea level, sea level extremes, and waves. Confidence in projections of global mean sea level rise has increased since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) because of the improved...

  15. Multi-phase structural and tectonic evolution of the Andaman Sea Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masterton, Sheona; Hill, Catherine; Sagi, David Adam; Webb, Peter; Sevastjanova, Inga

    2017-04-01

    We present a new regional tectonic interpretation for Myanmar and the Andaman Sea, built within the framework of global plate motions. In our model the Present Day Andaman Sea region has been subjected to multiple phases of extension, culminating in its mid-Miocene to Present Day opening as a rhomboidal pull-apart basin. The Andaman Sea region is historically thought to have developed as a consequence of back-arc opening associated with plate convergence at the Andaman-Nicobar subduction system. We have undertaken detailed structural interpretation of potential field, Landsat and SRTM data, supported by 2-D crustal models of the Andaman Sea. From this analysis we identified several major north-south striking faults and a series of northeast-southwest striking structures across the region. We have also mapped the extent of the Andaman-Nicobar Accretionary Prism, a fore arc trough and volcanic arc, which we associate with a phase of traditional trench-parallel back-arc extension from the Paleocene to the middle Miocene. A regional tectonic event occurred during the middle Miocene that caused the cessation of back-arc extension in the Present Day Andaman Sea and an eastward shift in the locus of arc-related volcanism. At that time, N-S striking faults onshore and offshore Myanmar were reactivated with widespread right-lateral motion. This motion, accompanied by extension along new NE-SW striking faults, facilitated the opening of the Central Andaman Basin as a pull-apart basin (rhombochasm) in which a strike-slip tectonic regime has a greater impact on the mode of opening than the subduction process. The integration of our plate model solution within a global framework allows identification of major plate reorganisation events and their impact on a regional scale. We therefore attribute the onset of pull-apart opening in the Andaman Sea to ongoing clockwise rotation of the western Sundaland margin throughout the late Paleogene and early Miocene, possibly driven by the

  16. Modelling the future of the arctic sea ice cover

    OpenAIRE

    Myklebust, Erik Bryhn

    2017-01-01

    Record lows in sea ice cover have recently sparked new interest in the small ice cap instability. The change in albedo when sea ice becomes open water introduces a nonlinearity called the ice-albedo feedback. Forcing a joint energy- balance and sea ice model can lead to unstable ice caps in certain parameter regimes. When the ice caps are unstable, a small perturbation will initiate a tipping point in the sea ice cover. For tipping points in general, a number of studies have pointed out that ...

  17. Improved measurements of mean sea surface velocity in the Nordic Seas from synthetic aperture radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wergeland Hansen, Morten; Johnsen, Harald; Engen, Geir; Øie Nilsen, Jan Even

    2017-04-01

    The warm and saline surface Atlantic Water (AW) flowing into the Nordic Seas across the Greenland-Scotland ridge transports heat into the Arctic, maintaining the ice-free oceans and regulating sea-ice extent. The AW influences the region's relatively mild climate and is the northern branch of the global thermohaline overturning circulation. Heat loss in the Norwegian Sea is key for both heat transport and deep water formation. In general, the ocean currents in the Nordic Seas and the North Atlantic Ocean is a complex system of topographically steered barotropic and baroclinic currents of which the wind stress and its variability is a driver of major importance. The synthetic aperture radar (SAR) Doppler centroid shift has been demonstrated to contain geophysical information about sea surface wind, waves and current at an accuracy of 5 Hz and pixel spacing of 3.5 - 9 × 8 km2. This corresponds to a horizontal surface velocity of about 20 cm/s at 35° incidence angle. The ESA Prodex ISAR project aims to implement new and improved SAR Doppler shift processing routines to enable reprocessing of the wide swath acquisitions available from the Envisat ASAR archive (2002-2012) at higher resolution and better accuracy than previously obtained, allowing combined use with Sentinel-1 and Radarsat-2 retrievals to build timeseries of the sea surface velocity in the Nordic Seas. Estimation of the geophysical Doppler shift from new SAR Doppler centroid shift retrievals will be demonstrated, addressing key issues relating to geometric (satellite orbit and attitude) and electronic (antenna mis-pointing) contributions and corrections. Geophysical Doppler shift retrievals from one month of data in January 2010 and the inverted surface velocity in the Nordic Seas are then addressed and compared to other direct and indirect estimates of the upper ocean current, in particular those obtained in the ESA GlobCurrent project.

  18. Past and present Aral Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dukhovniy, Viktor; Stulina, Galina; Eshchanov, Odylbek

    2013-04-01

    organized in 2005-2009 sixth expeditions for complex remote sensing and ground investigations Aral Sea former bottom that were complemented in 2010 -2011 by two expeditions with GFZ. As a result, the landscape, soils and environment mapping was done with determination of ecologically unstable zones and assessment total change of lands situation compared with the pre-independence time. Moreover - methodic of monitoring water, environment and hydro geological indicators on the all deltas area was elaborated, organized its testing and combined with remote sensing data on Amudarya delta for 2009-2012. It permits to SIC ICWC to organize systematic permanent (decadal) monitoring and recording of size, volume and level of water in Aral Sea. Since the beginning of regular observations over the Aral Sea level, 2 periods can be emphasized: 1. Conditionally natural period - 1911-1960 - characterized by a relatively stable hydrological regime, with fluctuations in the level around 53 m and the range of inter-annual fluctuations at no more than 1 m., when the sea received annually about a half of the run-off in the Syrdarya and Amudarya Rivers, i.e. 50-60 km3/yr. 2. Intensive anthropogenic impact period - since the 1960s, a vast extension of irrigable land was carried out in Central Asia that resulted in intensive diversion of river run-off. Since then, the sea level has been falling steadily, causing a dramatic reduction in the water surface area, a decrease in water volume and depths, great changes in shoreline configuration and an expansion of the desert areas adjacent to the Aral Sea. From 1960-1985, when the sea was an integral water body, slight lowering in the sea level took place until the 1970s, when the sea-level decreased with the mean level lowering 1 m. The desiccation process accelerated visibly from the mid 1970s. In 1975-1980, the level decreased by 0.65 m a year on average. Moreover, the level dropped greatly, when the run-off of the Amudarya did not reach the Aral Sea

  19. Fire regime in Mediterranean ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondi, Guido; Casula, Paolo; D'Andrea, Mirko; Fiorucci, Paolo

    2010-05-01

    The analysis of burnt areas time series in Mediterranean regions suggests that ecosystems characterising this area consist primarily of species highly vulnerable to the fire but highly resilient, as characterized by a significant regenerative capacity after the fire spreading. In a few years the area burnt may once again be covered by the same vegetation present before the fire. Similarly, Mediterranean conifer forests, which often refers to plantations made in order to reforest the areas most severely degraded with high erosion risk, regenerate from seed after the fire resulting in high resilience to the fire as well. Only rarely, and usually with negligible damages, fire affects the areas covered by climax species in relation with altitude and soil types (i.e, quercus, fagus, abies). On the basis of these results, this paper shows how the simple Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model is able to reproduce the forest fire regime in terms of number of fires and burned area, describing whit good accuracy the actual fire perimeters. The original Drossel-Schwabl model has been slightly modified in this work by introducing two parameters (probability of propagation and regrowth) specific for each different class of vegetation cover. Using model selection methods based on AIC, the model with the optimal number of classes with different fire behaviour was selected. Two different case studies are presented in this work: Regione Liguria and Regione Sardegna (Italy). Both regions are situated in the center of the Mediterranean and are characterized by a high number of fires and burned area. However, the two regions have very different fire regimes. Sardinia is affected by the fire phenomenon only in summer whilst Liguria is affected by fires also in winter, with higher number of fires and larger burned area. In addition, the two region are very different in vegetation cover. The presence of Mediterranean conifers, (Pinus Pinaster, Pinus Nigra, Pinus halepensis) is quite spread in

  20. Towards a green urban economy? Unravelling urban sustainability transitions from a regime perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mans, U.; Meerow, S.

    2012-01-01

    The current debate about sustainability transitions has embraced the multi-level perspective as a useful methodological tool for assessing the dynamics that are at play between landscape, regime and niche. As a consequence, the thinking about socio-technical transitions has gradually shifted in

  1. Mechanical spectral shift reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J.F.; Sherwood, D.G.

    1982-01-01

    A mechanical spectral shift reactor comprises a reactive core having fuel assemblies accommodating both water displacer elements and neutron absorbing control rods for selectively changing the volume of water-moderator in the core. The fuel assemblies with displacer and control rods are arranged in alternating fashion so that one displacer element drive mechanism may move displacer elements in more than one fuel assembly without interfering with the movement of control rods of a corresponding control rod drive mechanisms. (author)

  2. Neoclassical transport in ERS regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Z.; Tang, W.; Lee, W.W.

    1996-01-01

    The core ion thermal conductivity has been observed to fall below the standard neoclassical level in recent TFTR reversed magnetic shear discharges. Due to the combination of high central q and small local inverse aspect ratio, the ion poloidal gyroradius can be larger than the minor radius and comparable to the pressure gradient scale length in this ERS regime. It is then expected that finite orbit width effects play a key role in modifying the standard picture of neoclassical transport. Specifically, both the trapped particle fraction and the banana orbit width axe reduced by the finite minor radius and possibly by the pressure-gradient-driven radial electric field. In addition, the steep pressure gradient can generate neoclassical poloidal flows which, in turn, could reduce the particle and heat transports. Results from analytic estimates as well as those from full toroidal gyrokinetic neoclassical simulations will be presented

  3. Unitary Housing Regimes in Transition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bengtsson, Bo; Jensen, Lotte

    2013-01-01

    Path dependence is strong in housing institutions and policy. In both Denmark and Sweden, today’s universal and ‘unitary’ (Kemeny) housing regimes can be traced back to institutions that were introduced fifty years back in history or more. Recently, universal and unitary housing systems...... in Scandinavia, and elsewhere, are under challenge from strong political and economic forces. These challenges can be summarized as economic cutbacks, privatization and Europeanization. Although both the Danish and the Swedish housing system are universal and unitary in character, they differ considerably...... in institutional detail. Both systems have corporatist features, however in Denmark public housing is based on local tenant democracy and control, and in Sweden on companies owned and controlled by the municipalities, combined with a centralized system of rent negotiations. In the paper the present challenges...

  4. Reassessing the nuclear liability regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Havinh Phuong

    1985-01-01

    The nuclear liability regime was thoroughly reviewed by nuclear plant operators, officials of regulatory authorities, and legal and insurance experts at the Symposium on Nuclear Third Party Liability and Insurance, held in September 1984 in Munich, Federal Republic of Germany. The symposium highlighted specific areas where adjustments or improvements would be needed in order to cope with practical problems encountered or emerging issues. By focusing on questions of legitimate concern to the public, it also sought to promote confidence in a compensation system for public protection that is in many ways unique. Topics addressed included the following: greater harmonization of the compensation amounts for nuclear damage established in different countries and in territorial scope; the concept of unlimited liability; the time limitation for compensation claims; the problem of proving causation; the concept of nuclear damage; and insurance coverage

  5. Hall effect in hopping regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avdonin, A.; Skupiński, P.; Grasza, K.

    2016-01-01

    A simple description of the Hall effect in the hopping regime of conductivity in semiconductors is presented. Expressions for the Hall coefficient and Hall mobility are derived by considering averaged equilibrium electron transport in a single triangle of localization sites in a magnetic field. Dependence of the Hall coefficient is analyzed in a wide range of temperature and magnetic field values. Our theoretical result is applied to our experimental data on temperature dependence of Hall effect and Hall mobility in ZnO. - Highlights: • Expressions for Hall coefficient and mobility for hopping conductivity are derived. • Theoretical result is compared with experimental curves measured on ZnO. • Simultaneous action of free and hopping conduction channels is considered. • Non-linearity of hopping Hall coefficient is predicted.

  6. Hall effect in hopping regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avdonin, A., E-mail: avdonin@ifpan.edu.pl [Institute of Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Al. Lotników 32/46, 02-668 Warszawa (Poland); Skupiński, P. [Institute of Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Al. Lotników 32/46, 02-668 Warszawa (Poland); Grasza, K. [Institute of Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Al. Lotników 32/46, 02-668 Warszawa (Poland); Institute of Electronic Materials Technology, ul. Wólczyńska 133, 01-919 Warszawa (Poland)

    2016-02-15

    A simple description of the Hall effect in the hopping regime of conductivity in semiconductors is presented. Expressions for the Hall coefficient and Hall mobility are derived by considering averaged equilibrium electron transport in a single triangle of localization sites in a magnetic field. Dependence of the Hall coefficient is analyzed in a wide range of temperature and magnetic field values. Our theoretical result is applied to our experimental data on temperature dependence of Hall effect and Hall mobility in ZnO. - Highlights: • Expressions for Hall coefficient and mobility for hopping conductivity are derived. • Theoretical result is compared with experimental curves measured on ZnO. • Simultaneous action of free and hopping conduction channels is considered. • Non-linearity of hopping Hall coefficient is predicted.

  7. Changes in forest productivity across Alaska consistent with biome shift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Pieter S A; Juday, Glenn P; Alix, Claire; Barber, Valerie A; Winslow, Stephen E; Sousa, Emily E; Heiser, Patricia; Herriges, James D; Goetz, Scott J

    2011-04-01

    Global vegetation models predict that boreal forests are particularly sensitive to a biome shift during the 21st century. This shift would manifest itself first at the biome's margins, with evergreen forest expanding into current tundra while being replaced by grasslands or temperate forest at the biome's southern edge. We evaluated changes in forest productivity since 1982 across boreal Alaska by linking satellite estimates of primary productivity and a large tree-ring data set. Trends in both records show consistent growth increases at the boreal-tundra ecotones that contrast with drought-induced productivity declines throughout interior Alaska. These patterns support the hypothesized effects of an initiating biome shift. Ultimately, tree dispersal rates, habitat availability and the rate of future climate change, and how it changes disturbance regimes, are expected to determine where the boreal biome will undergo a gradual geographic range shift, and where a more rapid decline. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  8. Loss of sea ice in the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perovich, Donald K; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A

    2009-01-01

    The Arctic sea ice cover is in decline. The areal extent of the ice cover has been decreasing for the past few decades at an accelerating rate. Evidence also points to a decrease in sea ice thickness and a reduction in the amount of thicker perennial sea ice. A general global warming trend has made the ice cover more vulnerable to natural fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The observed reduction in Arctic sea ice is a consequence of both thermodynamic and dynamic processes, including such factors as preconditioning of the ice cover, overall warming trends, changes in cloud coverage, shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns, increased export of older ice out of the Arctic, advection of ocean heat from the Pacific and North Atlantic, enhanced solar heating of the ocean, and the ice-albedo feedback. The diminishing Arctic sea ice is creating social, political, economic, and ecological challenges.

  9. Sea level trends in Southeast Asian seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

    2015-05-01

    Southeast Asian seas span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian oceans. The Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost 2 decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17-year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement with decadal variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and related fluctuations of trade winds in the region. The Southeast Asian sea region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer timescales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past 20 years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the Southeast Asian sea region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends during the 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the Southeast Asian seas will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

  10. Sea level ~400 000 years ago (MIS 11: analogue for present and future sea-level?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Q. Bowen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Comparison of the sea-level today with that of 400 000 years ago (MIS 11, when the Earth's orbital characteristics were similar may provide, under conditions of natural variability, indications of future sea-level during the present interglacial. Then, as now, orbital eccentricity was low and precession dampened. Evidence for MIS 11 sea-level occurs on uplifting coastlines where shorelines with geochronological ages have been preserved. The sea-level term and the uplift term may be separated with an "uplift correction" formula. This discovers the original sea-level at which the now uplifted shoreline was fashioned. Estimates are based on average uplift rates of the "last interglacial" sea-level (MIS 5.5 using a range of estimates for sea-level and age at that time at different locations. These, with varying secular tectonic regimes in different ocean basins, provide a band of estimates for the MIS 11 sea-level. They do not support the hypothesis of an MIS 11 sea-level at ~20 m, and instead show that it was closer to its present level.

  11. Analytical theory for the nuclear level shift of hadronic atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kudryavtsev, A.E.; Lisin, V.I.; Popov, V.S.

    1982-01-01

    The spectrum problem in the Coulomb potential distorted at small distances is considered. Nuclear shifts of 3-levels in p anti p and Σ - p atoms are calculated. The probabilities of radiative transitions from p-states to the shifted s-states in hadronic atom are also given. It is shown that the reconstruction of atomic levels switches to oscillation regime when absorption increases. The limits of applicability of the perturbation theory in terms of the scattering length for different values of absorption is discussed. An exactly solvable model, Coulomb plus Yamaguchi potential, is considered

  12. Accommodating human values in the climate regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosalind Cook

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The climate regime addresses one of the most important challenges facing humankind today. However, while the environmental and economic sides of the problem are well represented, it lacks the inclusion of social and human aspects. The human rights regime, in contrast, is a regime which has been established precisely to implement human values. This article ex-plains the problems of climate change in terms of human values and argues that some proce-dures from the human rights regime offer possibilities for improvement. It is submitted that through the inclusion of human rights instruments, such as individual communication, pro-gressive realisation and authoritative interpretation, the inclusion of human values into the climate regime will be facilitated. This article presents these instruments and discusses their potential for inclusion in the climate regime.

  13. Integrating out the Dirac sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karbstein, Felix

    2009-07-08

    We introduce a new method for dealing with fermionic quantum field theories amenable to a mean-field-type approximation. In this work we focus on the relativistic Hartree approximation. Our aim is to integrate out the Dirac sea and derive a no-sea effective theory'' with positive energy single particle states only. As the derivation of the no-sea effective theory involves only standard Feynman diagrams, our approach is quite general and not restricted to particular space-time dimensions. We develop and illustrate the approach in the ''large N'' limit of the Gross-Neveu model family in 1+1 dimensions. As the Gross-Neveu model has been intensely studied and several analytical solutions are known for this model, it is an ideal testing ground for our no-sea effective theory approach. The chiral Gross-Neveu model, also referred to as 1+1 dimensional Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model, turns out to be of particular interest. In this case, we explicitly derive a consistent effective theory featuring both elementary ''{pi} meson'' fields and (positive energy) ''quark'' fields, starting from a purely fermionic quantum field theory. In the second part of this work, we apply our approach to the Walecka model in 1+1 and 3+1 dimensions. As the Dirac sea caused considerable difficulties in attempts to base nuclear physics on field theoretic models like the Walecka model, mean-field calculations were typically done without the sea. We confront several of these mean-field theory results with our no-sea effective theory approach. The potential of our approach is twofold. While the no-sea effective theory can be utilized to provide new analytical insights in particular parameter regimes, it also sheds new light on more fundamental issues as the explicit emergence of effective, Dirac-sea induced multi-fermion interactions in an effective theory with positive energy states only. (orig.)

  14. De Facto Regimes in International Law

    OpenAIRE

    Essen, Jonte van

    2012-01-01

    The ambiguous position of de facto regimes in international law has long been the subject of scholarly debate and a source of political conflict. An assessment of the current standing of these regimes in international law and the consequences of actions by international actors on this status has, however, been long overdue. The manner in which de facto regimes are regarded internationally has serious consequences for the individuals under the influence of this legal grey area. Therefore, the ...

  15. Sea salt

    OpenAIRE

    Galvis-Sánchez, Andrea C.; Lopes, João Almeida; Delgadillo, Ivone; Rangel, António O. S. S.

    2013-01-01

    The geographical indication (GI) status links a product with the territory and with the biodiversity involved. Besides, the specific knowledge and cultural practices of a human group that permit transforming a resource into a useful good is protected under a GI designation. Traditional sea salt is a hand-harvested product originating exclusively from salt marshes from specific geographical regions. Once salt is harvested, no washing, artificial drying or addition of anti-caking agents are all...

  16. The shifting beverage landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storey, Maureen

    2010-04-26

    STOREY, M.L. The shifting beverage landscape. PHYSIOL BEHAV, 2010. - Simultaneous lifestyle changes have occurred in the last few decades, creating an imbalance in energy intake and energy expenditure that has led to overweight and obesity. Trends in the food supply show that total daily calories available per capita increased 28% since 1970. Total energy intake among men and women has also increased dramatically since that time. Some have suggested that intake of beverages has had a disproportional impact on obesity. Data collected by the Beverage Marketing Corporation between 1988-2008 demonstrate that, in reality, fewer calories per ounce are being produced by the beverage industry. Moreover, data from the National Cancer Institute show that soft drink intake represents 5.5% of daily calories. Data from NHANES 1999-2003 vs. 2003-06 may demonstrate a shift in beverage consumption for age/gender groups, ages 6 to>60years. The beverages provided in schools have significantly changed since 2006 when the beverage industry implemented School Beverage Guidelines. This voluntary action has removed full-calorie soft drinks from participating schools across the country. This shift to lower-calorie and smaller-portion beverages in school has led to a significant decrease in total beverage calories in schools. These data support the concept that to prevent and treat obesity, public health efforts should focus on energy balance and that a narrow focus on sweetened beverages is unlikely to have any meaningful impact on this complex problem. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Mechanical spectral shift reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doshi, P.K.; George, R.A.; Dollard, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    A mechanical spectral shift arrangement for controlling a nuclear reactor includes a plurality of reactor coolant displacer members which are inserted into a reactor core at the beginning of the core life to reduce the volume of reactor coolant-moderator in the core at start-up. However, as the reactivity of the core declines with fuel depletion, selected displacer members are withdrawn from the core at selected time intervals to increase core moderation at a time when fuel reactivity is declining. (author)

  18. Spectral shift reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, W.R.; Piplica, E.J.

    1982-01-01

    A spectral shift pressurized water reactor comprising apparatus for inserting and withdrawing water displacer elements having differing neutron absorbing capabilities for selectively changing the water-moderator volume in the core thereby changing the reactivity of the core. The displacer elements comprise substantially hollow cylindrical low neutron absorbing rods and substantially hollow cylindrical thick walled stainless rods. Since the stainless steel displacer rods have greater neutron absorbing capability, they can effect greater reactivity change per rod. However, by arranging fewer stainless steel displacer rods in a cluster, the reactivity worth of the stainless steel displacer rod cluster can be less than a low neutron absorbing displacer rod cluster. (author)

  19. Proliferation Control Regimes: Background and Status

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nikitin, Mary B; Kerr, Paul; Bowman, Steve; Hildreth, Steven A

    2008-01-01

    .... national security interests. Multilateral regimes were established to restrict trade in nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and missile technologies, and to monitor their civil applications...

  20. Proliferation Control Regimes: Background and Status

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Squassoni, Sharon; Bowman, Steve; Hildreth, Steven A

    2006-01-01

    .... national security interests. Multilateral regimes were established to restrict trade in nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and missile technologies, and to monitor their civil applications...

  1. Long term persistence in the sea surface temperature fluctuations

    OpenAIRE

    Monetti, Roberto A.; Havlin, Shlomo; Bunde, Armin

    2002-01-01

    We study the temporal correlations in the sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations around the seasonal mean values in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. We apply a method that systematically overcome possible trends in the data. We find that the SST persistence, characterized by the correlation $C(s)$ of temperature fluctuations separated by a time period $s$, displays two different regimes. In the short-time regime which extends up to roughly 10 months, the temperature fluctuations display a...

  2. Transforming Water Supply Regimes in India: Do Public-Private Partnerships Have a Role to Play?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Govind Gopakumar

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Public-private partnerships (PPP are an important governance strategy that has recently emerged as a solution to enhance the access of marginalised residents to urban infrastructures. With the inception of neo-liberal economic reforms in India, in Indian cities too PPP has emerged as an innovative approach to expand coverage of water supply and sanitation infrastructures. However, there has been little study of the dynamics of partnership efforts in different urban contexts: What role do they play in transforming existing infrastructure regimes? Do reform strategies such as partnerships result in increased privatisation or do they make the governance of infrastructures more participative? Reviewing some of the recent literature on urban political analysis, this article develops the concept of water supply regime to describe the context of water provision in three metropolitan cities in India. To further our understanding of the role of PPP within regimes, this article sketches five cases of water supply and sanitation partnerships located within these three metropolitan cities. From these empirical studies, the article arrives at the conclusion that while PPP are always products of the regime-context they are inserted within, quite often strategic actors in the partnership use the PPP to further their interests by initiating a shift in the regime pathway. This leads us to conclude that PPPs do play a role in making water supply regimes more participative but that depends on the nature of the regime as well as the actions of partners.

  3. Modal recovery of sea-level variability in the South China Sea using merged altimeter data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Haoyu; Chen, Ge

    2015-09-01

    Using 20 years (1993-2012) of merged data recorded by contemporary multi-altimeter missions, a variety of sea-level variability modes are recovered in the South China Sea employing three-dimensional harmonic extraction. In terms of the long-term variation, the South China Sea is estimated to have a rising sea-level linear trend of 5.39 mm/a over these 20 years. Among the modes extracted, the seven most statistically significant periodic or quasi-periodic modes are identified as principal modes. The geographical distributions of the magnitudes and phases of the modes are displayed. In terms of intraannual and annual regimes, two principal modes with strict semiannual and annual periods are found, with the annual variability having the largest amplitudes among the seven modes. For interannual and decadal regimes, five principal modes at approximately 18, 21, 23, 28, and 112 months are found with the most mode-active region being to the east of Vietnam. For the phase distributions, a series of amphidromes are observed as twins, termed "amphidrome twins", comprising rotating dipole systems. The stability of periodic modes is investigated employing joint spatiotemporal analysis of latitude/longitude sections. Results show that all periodic modes are robust, revealing the richness and complexity of sea-level modes in the South China Sea.

  4. Repetition and Translation Shifts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Zupan

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Repetition manifests itself in different ways and at different levels of the text. The first basic type of repetition involves complete recurrences; in which a particular textual feature repeats in its entirety. The second type involves partial recurrences; in which the second repetition of the same textual feature includes certain modifications to the first occurrence. In the article; repetitive patterns in Edgar Allan Poe’s short story “The Fall of the House of Usher” and its Slovene translation; “Konec Usherjeve hiše”; are compared. The author examines different kinds of repetitive patterns. Repetitions are compared at both the micro- and macrostructural levels. As detailed analyses have shown; considerable microstructural translation shifts occur in certain types of repetitive patterns. Since these are not only occasional; sporadic phenomena; but are of a relatively high frequency; they reduce the translated text’s potential for achieving some of the gothic effects. The macrostructural textual property particularly affected by these shifts is the narrator’s experience as described by the narrative; which suffers a reduction in intensity.

  5. Hydrologic Control on Bacterial Nitrogen Fixation in the Holocene Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulton, J. M.; Arthur, M. A.; Freeman, K. H.

    2008-12-01

    Stratified oceans of the Phanerozoic Oceanic Anoxic Events apparently were dominated by bacterial nitrogen fixation. Decreased marine N:P nutrient ratios resulting from increased denitrification and decreased phosphate burial efficiency under anoxic waters drove this nutrient regime. This model is upheld by the presence of cyanobacterial hopanoid biomarkers in sedimentary records and δ15N values indicative of nitrogen fixation. However, in the largest modern redox-stratified marine basin, the Black Sea, bacterial nitrogen fixation seems to be only a minor contributor to the nitrogen cycle. In this study, we use geochemical proxies to evaluate the role of bacterial nitrogen fixation during the deposition of the Holocene Black Sea sapropel, starting 7.8 ka. We report compound-specific nitrogen and carbon stable isotope values of pyropheophytin a, a chlorophyll degradation product, and bacteriochlorophyll e produced by green sulfur bacteria. We also present the surprising finding of scytonemin, a pigment produced only by filamentous cyanobacteria exposed to ultraviolet radiation, in certain intervals in these sediments. In the Holocene, nitrogen fixation in the Black Sea is most prominent during times of reduced river water influx. This directly decreases the external flux of nitrate into the surface waters. Reduced freshwater influx also decreases the volume of low salinity water dispersed around the sea by the Rim Current, allowing the chemocline to shoal along the margins. Previous geochemical studies have described this changing chemocline geometry. The exposure of shallow water sediments to anoxic waters further stimulates nitrogen fixation by releasing more phosphorus to the system. Nitrogen fixation is recorded in the sediments as bulk and compound-specific pyropheophytin a δ15N values near 0 ‰ and -5 ‰, respectively. We have also detected scytonemin in two intervals characterized by especially low δ15N values. This compound suggests abundant filamentous

  6. Shift Work: Improving Daytime Sleep

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... night. Good daytime sleep is possible, though, if shift work is a necessary part of your work life. ... mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/adult-health/expert-answers/shift-work/faq-20057991 . Mayo Clinic Footer Legal Conditions and ...

  7. Societal, land cover and climatic controls on river nutrient flows into the Baltic Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saaltink, R.; Velde, van der Y.; Dekker, S.C.; Lyon, S.W.; Dahlke, H.E.

    2014-01-01

    Study region River basins draining into the Baltic Sea, known as the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB). Study focus Dramatic shifts in water quality have been observed in the Baltic Sea in past decades. This study investigated the spatial distribution of trends in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in

  8. Societal, land cover and climatic controls on river nutrient flows into the Baltic Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saaltink, Rémon; van der Velde, Ype; Dekker, Stefan; Lyon, Steve W.; Dahlke, Helen E.

    Study region River basins draining into the Baltic Sea, known as the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB). Study focus Dramatic shifts in water quality have been observed in the Baltic Sea in past decades. This study investigated the spatial distribution of trends in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in

  9. Societal, land cover and climatic controls on river nutrient flows into the Baltic Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saaltink, Rémon; van der Velde, Ype; Dekker, Stefan C.; Lyon, Steve W.; Dahlke, Helen E.

    2014-01-01

    Study region: River basins draining into the Baltic Sea, known as the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB). Study focus: Dramatic shifts in water quality have been observed in the Baltic Sea in past decades. This study investigated the spatial distribution of trends in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in

  10. A tax reprieve for the North Sea?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemp, A.

    1998-01-01

    The United Kingdom government has for the time being put to one side its intended review of the fiscal regime in the North Sea. Consistently low oil prices over the last year and the consequent effect on production have given rise to this decision. The ongoing debate on oil taxation in the UK over the past 18 months since the advent of a new government is examined. It has its roots in the last major changes to the oil tax regime which were made in 1993. It has been made clear by the government that the taxation review has not been abandoned and could come to the fore again should there be a substantial increase in oil and gas prices or if companies sought premature decommissioning of North Sea fields. (UK)

  11. Knowledge-based sea ice classification by polarimetric SAR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skriver, Henning; Dierking, Wolfgang

    2004-01-01

    Polarimetric SAR images acquired at C- and L-band over sea ice in the Greenland Sea, Baltic Sea, and Beaufort Sea have been analysed with respect to their potential for ice type classification. The polarimetric data were gathered by the Danish EMISAR and the US AIRSAR which both are airborne...... systems. A hierarchical classification scheme was chosen for sea ice because our knowledge about magnitudes, variations, and dependences of sea ice signatures can be directly considered. The optimal sequence of classification rules and the rules themselves depend on the ice conditions/regimes. The use...... of the polarimetric phase information improves the classification only in the case of thin ice types but is not necessary for thicker ice (above about 30 cm thickness)...

  12. Lanthanide shift reagents, binding, shift mechanisms and exchange

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boer, J.W.M. de

    1977-01-01

    Paramagnetic lanthanide shift reagents, when added to a solution of a substrate, induce shifts in the nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectrum of the substrate molecules. The induced shifts contain information about the structure of the shift reagent substrate complex. The structural information, however, may be difficult to extract because of the following effects: (1) different complexes between shift reagent and substrate may be present in solution, e.g. 1:1 and 1:2 complexes, and the shift observed is a weighed average of the shifts of the substrate nuclei in the different complexes; (2) the Fermi contact interaction, arising from the spin density at the nucleus, contributes to the induced shift; (3) chemical exchange effects may complicate the NMR spectrum. In this thesis, the results of an investigation into the influence of these effects on the NMR spectra of solutions containing a substrate and LSR are presented. The equations describing the pseudo contact and the Fermi contact shift are derived. In addition, it is shown how the modified Bloch equations describing the effect of the chemical exchange processes occurring in the systems studied can be reduced to the familiar equations for a two-site exchange case. The binding of mono- and bifunctional ethers to the shift reagent are reported. An analysis of the induced shifts is given. Finally, the results of the experiments performed to study the exchange behavior of dimethoxyethane and heptafluorodimethyloctanedionato ligands are presented

  13. How the origin of organic compounds affects vegetation patchiness and regime shifts in ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekker, S.C.; Nierop, K.G.J.; Mao, J.

    2012-01-01

    Soil water repellency (SWR) is a common property of soils and has been reported from all inhabited continents. It can have negative consequences for plant growth due to stagnation of water infiltration. Recently, the understanding of SWR has increased, mainly for the soil physical mechanisms.

  14. Smart social adaptation prevents catastrophic ecological regime shifts in networks of myopic harvesters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donges, Jonathan; Lucht, Wolfgang; Wiedermann, Marc; Heitzig, Jobst; Kurths, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    In the anthropocene, the rise of global social and economic networks with ever increasing connectivity and speed of interactions, e.g., the internet or global financial markets, is a key challenge for sustainable development. The spread of opinions, values or technologies on these networks, in conjunction with the coevolution of the network structures themselves, underlies nexuses of current concern such as anthropogenic climate change, biodiversity loss or global land use change. To isolate and quantitatively study the effects and implications of network dynamics for sustainable development, we propose an agent-based model of information flow on adaptive networks between myopic harvesters that exploit private renewable resources. In this conceptual model of a network of socio-ecological systems, information on management practices flows between agents via boundedly rational imitation depending on the state of the resource stocks involved in an interaction. Agents can also adapt the structure of their social network locally by preferentially connecting to culturally similar agents with identical management practices and, at the same time, disconnecting from culturally dissimilar agents. Investigating in detail the statistical mechanics of this model, we find that an increasing rate of information flow through faster imitation dynamics or growing density of network connectivity leads to a marked increase in the likelihood of environmental resource collapse. However, we show that an optimal rate of social network adaptation can mitigate this negative effect without loss of social cohesion through network fragmentation. Our results highlight that seemingly immaterial network dynamics of spreading opinions or values can be of large relevance for the sustainable management of socio-ecological systems and suggest smartly conservative network adaptation as a strategy for mitigating environmental collapse. Hence, facing the great acceleration, these network dynamics should be more routinely incorporated in standard models of economic development or integrated assessment models used for evaluating anthropogenic climate change.

  15. Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts. Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jammazi, Rania; Aloui, Chaker [International finance group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia)

    2010-03-15

    While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes. (author)

  16. Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jammazi, Rania, E-mail: jamrania2@yahoo.f [International finance group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia); Aloui, Chaker, E-mail: chaker.aloui@fsegt.rnu.t [International finance group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia)

    2010-03-15

    While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes.

  17. Evidence for a Drought-driven (pre-industrial) Regime Shift in an Australian Shallow Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, K.; Gell, P.; Doan, P.; Kershaw, P.; McKenzie, M.; Lewis, T.; Tyler, J. J.

    2015-12-01

    We present a 750-year record of ecosystem response to long-term drought history from Lake Colac, Victoria. Using multiple lines of evidence, we test the sensitivity and resilience of Lake Colac to independently reconstructed drought history. The sedimentary archive shows that Lake Colac appears to be sensitive to periods of drought. Following drought conditions c. CE 1390, the lake ecosystem indicates signs of recovery. A succession of droughts in the early 1500s initiates a change in the diatom flora, with freshwater species declining and replaced by saline tolerant species, though there is little interpretable change in aquatic palynomorphs. An inferred drought, around CE 1720 appears to precede a major switch in the lake's ecosystem. The lake became increasingly turbid and saline and there is a distinct switch from a macrophyte-dominated system to an algal-dominated system. The arrival of Europeans in Victoria (CE1840) appears to have little effect on the lake's ecosystem, but the terrestrial vegetation indicates regionally established changes including declines in native trees, especially Casuarina, and arrival and expansion of exotic shade or plantation trees Pinus and Cupressus as well as native and introduced weeds. As European impact in the catchment increases, nutrients appear to play a role in the modification of the lake's ecosystem. A long-term drying trend from c. CE 1975 is evident, culminating in the Millennium Drought, which suggests unprecedented conditions in the ecological history of the Lake.

  18. Regime shifts and weakened environmental gradients in open oak and pine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brice B. Hanberry; Dan C. Dey; Hong S. He

    2012-01-01

    Fire suppression allows tree species that are intolerant of fire stress to increase their distribution, potentially resulting in disruption of historical species-environmental relationships. To measure changes between historical General Land Office surveys (1815 to 1850) and current USDA Forest Inventory and Assessment surveys (2004 to 2008), we compared composition,...

  19. Regime shifts and weakened environmental gradients in open oak and pine ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanberry, Brice B; Dey, Dan C; He, Hong S

    2012-01-01

    Fire suppression allows tree species that are intolerant of fire stress to increase their distribution, potentially resulting in disruption of historical species-environmental relationships. To measure changes between historical General Land Office surveys (1815 to 1850) and current USDA Forest Inventory and Assessment surveys (2004 to 2008), we compared composition, distribution, and site factors of 21 tree species or species groups in the Missouri Ozarks. We used 24 environmental variables and random forests as a classification method to model distributions. Eastern redcedar, elms, maples, and other fire-sensitive species have increased in dominance in oak forests, with concurrent reductions by oak species; specific changes varied by ecological subsection. Ordinations displayed loss of separation between formerly distinctive oak and fire-sensitive tree species groups. Distribution maps showed decreased presence of disturbance-dependent oak and pine species and increased presence of fire-sensitive species that generally expanded from subsections protected from fire along rivers to upland areas, except for eastern redcedar, which expanded into these subsections. Large scale differences in spatial gradients between past and present communities paralleled reduced influence of local topographic gradients in the varied relief of the Missouri Ozarks, as fire-sensitive species have moved to higher, drier, and sunnier sites away from riverine corridors. Due to changes in land use, landscapes in the Missouri Ozarks, eastern United States, and world-wide are changing from open oak and pine-dominated ecosystems to novel oak-mixed species forests, although at fine scales, forests are becoming more diverse in tree species today. Fire suppression weakened the influence by environmental gradients over species dominance, allowing succession from disturbance-dependent oaks to an alternative state of fire-sensitive species. Current and future research and conservation that rely on historical relationships and ecological principles based on disturbance across the landscape will need to incorporate modern interactions among species for resources into management plans and projections.

  20. Regime shifts and weakened environmental gradients in open oak and pine ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brice B Hanberry

    Full Text Available Fire suppression allows tree species that are intolerant of fire stress to increase their distribution, potentially resulting in disruption of historical species-environmental relationships. To measure changes between historical General Land Office surveys (1815 to 1850 and current USDA Forest Inventory and Assessment surveys (2004 to 2008, we compared composition, distribution, and site factors of 21 tree species or species groups in the Missouri Ozarks. We used 24 environmental variables and random forests as a classification method to model distributions. Eastern redcedar, elms, maples, and other fire-sensitive species have increased in dominance in oak forests, with concurrent reductions by oak species; specific changes varied by ecological subsection. Ordinations displayed loss of separation between formerly distinctive oak and fire-sensitive tree species groups. Distribution maps showed decreased presence of disturbance-dependent oak and pine species and increased presence of fire-sensitive species that generally expanded from subsections protected from fire along rivers to upland areas, except for eastern redcedar, which expanded into these subsections. Large scale differences in spatial gradients between past and present communities paralleled reduced influence of local topographic gradients in the varied relief of the Missouri Ozarks, as fire-sensitive species have moved to higher, drier, and sunnier sites away from riverine corridors. Due to changes in land use, landscapes in the Missouri Ozarks, eastern United States, and world-wide are changing from open oak and pine-dominated ecosystems to novel oak-mixed species forests, although at fine scales, forests are becoming more diverse in tree species today. Fire suppression weakened the influence by environmental gradients over species dominance, allowing succession from disturbance-dependent oaks to an alternative state of fire-sensitive species. Current and future research and conservation that rely on historical relationships and ecological principles based on disturbance across the landscape will need to incorporate modern interactions among species for resources into management plans and projections.

  1. Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lavine, Jennie; King, Aaron A; Andreasen, Viggo

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the biological mechanisms underlying episodic outbreaks of infectious diseases is one of mathematical epidemiology’s major goals. Historic records are an invaluable source of information in this enterprise. Pertussis (whooping cough) is a re-emerging infection whose intermittent bouts...... with permanent or passively-waning immunity. Our results emphasize the importance of understanding the mechanisms responsible for maintaining immune memory for pertussis epidemiology....

  2. Early warning signals of regime shifts from cross-scale connectivity of land-cover patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovanni Zurlini; Kenneth Bruce Jones; Kurt Hans Riitters; Bai-Lian Li; Irene Petrosillo

    2014-01-01

    Increasing external pressures from human activities and climate change can lead to desertification, affecting the livelihood of more than 25% of the world’s population. Thus, determining proximity to transition to desertification is particularly central for arid regions before they may convert into deserts, and recent research has focused on devising early warning...

  3. Dynamic Analytical Capability to Better Understand and Anticipate Extremist Shifts Within Populations under Authoritarian Regimes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, Michael Lewis [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-11-01

    The purpose of this work is to create a generalizable data- and theory-supported capability to better understand and anticipate (with quantifiable uncertainty): 1) how the dynamics of allegiance formations between various groups and society are impacted by active conflict and by third-party interventions and 2) how/why extremist allegiances co-evolve over time due to changing geopolitical, sociocultural, and military conditions.

  4. Regime shifts in shallow lakes: the importance of seasonal fish migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brönmark, Christer; Brodersen, Jakob; Chapman, Ben B.

    2010-01-01

    . Our earlier research shows that a large proportion of zooplanktivorous fish populations in shallow lakes undertake seasonal migrations where they leave the lake during winter and migrate back to the lake in spring. Based on our past research, we propose a number of scenarios of how feedback processes...... properties, including piscivore abundance and zooplankton productivity, affect the individual state of zooplanktivorous fish, such as growth rate or condition. Individual state, in turn, affects the relative proportion and timing of migrating zooplanktivorous fish. This change, in turn, may stabilize states...... between the individual and ecosystem levels may affect stability of alternative stable states in shallow lakes when mediated by fish migration. Migration effects on shallow lakes result from processes at different scales, from the individual to the ecosystem. Our earlier research has shown that ecosystem...

  5. Base flow-driven shifts in tropical stream temperature regimes across a mean annual rainfall gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayron M. Strauch; Richard A. MacKenzie; Ralph W. Tingley

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is expected to affect air temperature and watershed hydrology, but the degree to which these concurrent changes affect stream temperature is not well documented in the tropics. How stream temperature varies over time under changing hydrologic conditions is difficult to isolate from seasonal changes in air temperature. Groundwater and bank storage...

  6. Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jammazi, Rania; Aloui, Chaker

    2010-01-01

    While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes.

  7. Evolutionary regime shifts in age and size at maturation of exploited fish stocks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    de Roos, A. M.; Boukal S., David; Persson, L.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 1596, č. 273, (2006), s. 1873-1880 ISSN 0962-8452 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP201/02/D088 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50070508 Keywords : complex adaptive systems * life-history evolution * ecological feedbacks Subject RIV: ED - Physiology Impact factor: 3.612, year: 2006

  8. Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive gove...

  9. Faktor Dan Penjadualan Shift Kerja

    OpenAIRE

    Maurits, Lientje Setyawati; Widodo, Imam Djati

    2008-01-01

    Work shift has negative effect in physical and mental health, work performance and job accident. Disturbance of circadian rhythms is indicated as source of the problems. This article explores some researches related to the impacts of work shift and establishes basic principles of work shift scheduling that considers human need and limitation.

  10. Isotope shifting capacity of rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blattner, P.; Department of Scientific and Industrial Research, Lower Hutt

    1980-01-01

    Any oxygen isotope shifted rock volume exactly defines a past throughput of water. An expression is derived that relates the throughput of an open system to the isotope shift of reservoir rock and present-day output. The small isotope shift of Ngawha reservoir rock and the small, high delta oxygen-18 output are best accounted for by a magmatic water source

  11. Autumn atmospheric response to the 2007 low Arctic sea ice extent in coupled ocean-atmosphere hindcasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orsolini, Yvan J. [Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), PO BOX 100, Kjeller (Norway); Senan, Retish; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Melsom, Arne [Norwegian Meteorological Institute (met. no), Oslo (Norway)

    2012-06-15

    The autumn and early winter atmospheric response to the record-low Arctic sea ice extent at the end of summer 2007 is examined in ensemble hindcasts with prescribed sea ice extent, made with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecast model. Robust, warm anomalies over the Pacific and Siberian sectors of the Arctic, as high as 10 C at the surface, are found in October and November. A regime change occurs by December, characterized by weaker temperatures anomalies extending through the troposphere. Geopotential anomalies extend from the surface up to the stratosphere, associated to deeper Aleutian and Icelandic Lows. While the upper-level jet is weakened and shifted southward over the continents, it is intensified over both oceanic sectors, especially over the Pacific Ocean. On the American and Eurasian continents, intensified surface Highs are associated with anomalous advection of cold (warm) polar air on their eastern (western) sides, bringing cooler temperatures along the Pacific coast of Asia and Northeastern North America. Transient eddy activity is reduced over Eurasia, intensified over the entrance and exit regions of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks, in broad qualitative agreement with the upper-level wind anomalies. Potential predictability calculations indicate a strong influence of sea ice upon surface temperatures over the Arctic in autumn, but also along the Pacific coast of Asia in December. When the observed sea ice extent from 2007 is prescribed throughout the autumn, a higher correlation of surface temperatures with meteorological re-analyses is found at high latitudes from October until mid-November. This further emphasises the relevance of sea ice for seasonal forecasting in the Arctic region, in the autumn. (orig.)

  12. Capacitance densitometer for flow regime identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shipp, R.L. Jr.

    1978-01-01

    This invention relates to a capacitance densitometer for determining the flow regime of a two-phase flow system. A two-element capacitance densitometer is used in conjunction with a conventional single-beam gamma densitometer to unambiguously identify the prevailing flow regime and the average density of a flowing fluid

  13. TARIFFS AND REGIMES OF POWER CONSUMPTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. V. Batsova

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of regimes of electro-consumption at RUP «BMZ» is carried out. It is shown that in conditions of rapid growth of prices for electric power one of the conditions of reduction of production expenses is to be the increase of efficiency of the electro-consumption regimes control.

  14. Strengthening the nuclear non-proliferation regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, J.

    2003-01-01

    Although the nuclear non-proliferation regime has enjoyed considerable success, today the regime has never been under greater threat. Three states have challenged the objectives of the NPT, and there is a technology challenge - the spread of centrifuge enrichment technology and know-how. A major issue confronting the international community is, how to deal with a determined proliferator? Despite this gloomy scenario, however, the non-proliferation regime has considerable strengths - many of which can be developed further. The regime comprises complex interacting and mutually reinforcing elements. At its centre is the NPT - with IAEA safeguards as the Treaty's verification mechanism. Important complementary elements include: restraint in the supply and the acquisition of sensitive technologies; multilateral regimes such as the CTBT and proposed FMCT; various regional and bilateral regimes; the range of security and arms control arrangements outside the nuclear area (including other WMD regimes); and the development of proliferation-resistant technologies. Especially important are political incentives and sanctions in support of non-proliferation objectives. This paper outlines some of the key issues facing the non-proliferation regime

  15. Synergies between nonproliferation regimes: A pragmatic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Findlay, Trevor; Meier, Oliver

    2001-01-01

    Full text: With the recent progress in establishing international nonproliferation regimes, the question of synergies between different verification and monitoring regimes is becoming more acute. Three multilateral and universal nonproliferation organisations covering safeguards on civil nuclear materials, nuclear testing, and chemical weapons are up and running. A regime on biological weapons is under negotiation. Several regional organisations concerned with monitoring nonproliferation commitments in the nuclear field are in place; others are being established. Past discussions on synergies between these regimes have suffered from being too far-reaching. These discussions often have not reflected adequately the political difficulties of cooperation between regimes with different membership, scope and institutional set-up. This paper takes a pragmatic look at exploiting synergies and identifies some potential and real overlaps in the work between different verification regimes. It argues for a bottom-up approach and identifies building blocks for collaboration between verification regimes. By realising such, more limited potential for cooperation, the ground could be prepared for exploiting other synergies between these regimes. (author)

  16. Crustal stress regime in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Cesaro

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to obtain a reliable map of the present-day stress field in Italy, needed to better understand the active tectonic processes and to contribute to the assessment of seismic hazard, in 1992 we started to collect and analyze new data from borehole breakouts in deep oil and geothermal wells and focal mechanisms of earthquakes (2.5 < M <5 occurred in Italy between 1988 and 1995. From about 200 deep wells and 300 focal mechanisms analyzed to date, we infer that: the internal (SW sector of the Northern Apenninic arc is extending with minimum compressional stress (Shmin oriented ? ENE, while the external front is thrusting over the Adriatic foreland (Shmin ? NW-SE. The entire Southern Apennine is extending in NE direction (from the Tyrrhenian margin to the Apulian foreland and compression (in the foredeep is no longer active at the outer (NE thrust front. Between these two arcs, an abrupt change in the tectonic regime is detected with directions of horizontal stress changing by as much as 90º in the external front, around latitude 430N. Along the Ionian side of the Calabrian arc the stress directions inferred from breakouts and focal mechanisms are scattered with a hint of rotation from N-S Shmin close to the Southern Apennines, to ~ E-W directions in the Messina Strait. In Sicily, a NW-SE direction of SHmax is evident in the Hyblean foreland, parallel to the direction of plate motion between Africa and Europe. A more complex pattern of stress directions is observed in the thrust belt zone, with rotations from the regional trend (NW í directed SHmax to NE oriented SHmax. A predominant NW direction of SHmax is also detected in mainland Sicily from earthquake focal mechanisms, but no well data are available in this region. In the northern part of Sicily (Aeolian Islands a ~N-S direction of SHmax is observed.

  17. Late Holocene sea ice conditions in Herald Canyon, Chukchi Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, C.; O'Regan, M.; Rattray, J. E.; Hutchinson, D. K.; Cronin, T. M.; Gemery, L.; Barrientos, N.; Coxall, H.; Smittenberg, R.; Semiletov, I. P.; Jakobsson, M.

    2017-12-01

    Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has been in steady decline in recent decades and, based on satellite data, the retreat is most pronounced in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas. Historical observations suggest that the recent changes were unprecedented during the last 150 years, but for a longer time perspective, we rely on the geological record. For this study, we analyzed sediment samples from two piston cores from Herald Canyon in the Chukchi Sea, collected during the 2014 SWERUS-C3 Arctic Ocean Expedition. The Herald Canyon is a local depression across the Chukchi Shelf, and acts as one of the main pathways for Pacific Water to the Arctic Ocean after entering through the narrow and shallow Bering Strait. The study site lies at the modern-day seasonal sea ice minimum edge, and is thus an ideal location for the reconstruction of past sea ice variability. Both sediment cores contain late Holocene deposits characterized by high sediment accumulation rates (100-300 cm/kyr). Core 2-PC1 from the shallow canyon flank (57 m water depth) is 8 meter long and extends back to 4200 cal yrs BP, while the upper 3 meters of Core 4-PC1 from the central canyon (120 mwd) cover the last 3000 years. The chronologies of the cores are based on radiocarbon dates and the 3.6 ka Aniakchak CFE II tephra, which is used as an absolute age marker to calculate the marine radiocarbon reservoir age. Analysis of biomarkers for sea ice and surface water productivity indicate stable sea ice conditions throughout the entire late Holocene, ending with an abrupt increase of phytoplankton sterols in the very top of both sediment sequences. The shift is accompanied by a sudden increase in coarse sediments (> 125 µm) and a minor change in δ13Corg. We interpret this transition in the top sediments as a community turnover in primary producers from sea ice to open water biota. Most importantly, our results indicate that the ongoing rapid ice retreat in the Chukchi Sea of recent decades was unprecedented during the

  18. Biologically-Oriented Processes in the Coastal Sea Ice Zone of the White Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melnikov, I. A.

    2002-12-01

    The annual advance and retreat of sea ice is a major physical determinant of spatial and temporal changes in the structure and function of marine coastal biological communities. Sea ice biological data obtained in the tidal zone of Kandalaksha Gulf (White Sea) during 1996-2001 period will be presented. Previous observations in this area were mainly conducted during the ice-free summer season. However, there is little information on the ice-covered winter season (6-7 months duration), and, especially, on the sea-ice biology in the coastal zone within tidal regimes. During the January-May period time-series observations were conducted on transects along shorelines with coastal and fast ice. Trends in the annual extent of sea ice showed significant impacts on ice-associated biological communities. Three types of sea ice impact on kelps, balanoides, littorinas and amphipods are distinguished: (i) positive, when sea ice protects these populations from grinding (ii) negative, when ice grinds both fauna and flora, and (iii) a combined effect, when fast ice protects, but anchored ice grinds plant and animals. To understand the full spectrum of ecological problems caused by pollution on the coastal zone, as well as the problems of sea ice melting caused by global warming, an integrated, long-term study of the physical, chemical, and biological processes is needed.

  19. The shift in windpower

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gipe, P.

    1992-01-01

    Despite new production records, the near-term market for new windpower projects in the US remains bleak. Congressional incentives and project proposals in the mid-1990s offer promise, but for now most development has shifted to Europe. During 1992 and 1993 the largest wind projects developed by US companies will not be in the US, but in the United Kingdom and Spain. Indeed, most of the US's windpower industry is going abroad, establishing offices overseas. This move toward Europe comes as little surprise. New project development for US firms has faltered at home while the European market has burgeoned. The topics of the article include the move to Europe, a reduction in California's share of producing wind power plants, a rise in Europe's share of producing wind power plants, the future market for wind power in the US, and reawakening California's market

  20. ‘Close enough’ – The link between the Syrian Electronic Army and the Bashar al-Assad regime, and implications for the future development of nation-state cyber counter-insurgency strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stewart Kenton Bertram

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The case of the Syrian Electronic Army (SEA offers the chance to study a counter response to the cyber activism of the Arab Spring. Research methods featured an adapted method of snowball sampling. The main technical finding of the study placed the SEA within two degrees of separation from a senior politician within the Assad regime. The core conclusion of the paper is the definition of a ‘close enough’ relationship between the SEA and the Assad regime, defined as distant enough to preserve plausible deniability but close enough to ensure the strategic alignment of the SEA to state policy goals.

  1. The shift of accounting models and accounting quality: the case of Norwegian GAAP

    OpenAIRE

    Stenheim, Tonny; Madsen, Dag Øivind

    2017-01-01

    This is an Open Access journal available from http://www.virtusinterpress.org This paper investigates the change in accounting quality w hen firms shift from a revenue - oriented historical cost accounting regime as Norwegian GAAP (NGAAP) to a balance - oriented fair value accounting regime as International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Previous studies have demonstrated mixed effects o n the accounting quality upon IFRS adoption. One possible reason is that the investigated domest...

  2. Legislative proposal for a controlled foreign companies regime in Poland from an international perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Małgorzata Hybka

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Tackling corporate profit shifting requires appropriate anti-avoidance measures. This article reviews one of these measures, a controlled foreign companies (corporations regime. It has been implemented in many countries, in some of them as early as the 1960s. The need for its introduction has also been expressed on many occasions by the Polish legislator. The article is composed of three sections. The first considers the reasons for the implementation of the analyzed regime. The second describes the controlled foreign corporation legislation in the USA and selected European Union member states. The last section is devoted to a bill on taxing controlled foreign companies in Poland.

  3. The collective Lamb shift in nuclear γ-ray superradiance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Röhlsberger, Ralf

    2012-01-01

    The electromagnetic transitions of Mössbauer nuclei provide almost ideal two-level systems to transfer quantum optical concepts into the regime of hard x-rays. If many identical atoms collectively interact with a resonant radiation field, one observes (quantum) optical properties that are strongly different from those of a single atom. The most prominent effect is the broadening of the resonance line known as collective enhancement, resulting from multiple scattering of real photons within the atomic ensemble. On the other hand, the exchange of virtual photons within the ensemble leads to a tiny energy shift of the resonance line, the collective Lamb shift, that remained experimentally elusive for a long time after its prediction. Here we illustrate how highly brilliant synchrotron radiation allows one to prepare superradiant states of excited Mössbauer nuclei, an important condition for observation of the collective Lamb shift.

  4. Observation of the Phononic Lamb Shift with a Synthetic Vacuum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Rentrop

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In contrast to classical empty space, the quantum vacuum fundamentally alters the properties of embedded particles. This paradigm shift allows one to explain the discovery of the celebrated Lamb shift in the spectrum of the hydrogen atom. Here, we engineer a synthetic vacuum, building on the unique properties of ultracold atomic gas mixtures, offering the ability to switch between empty space and quantum vacuum. Using high-precision spectroscopy, we observe the phononic Lamb shift, an intriguing many-body effect originally conjectured in the context of solid-state physics. We find good agreement with theoretical predictions based on the Fröhlich model. Our observations establish this experimental platform as a new tool for precision benchmarking of open theoretical challenges, especially in the regime of strong coupling between the particles and the quantum vacuum.

  5. De Facto Regimes in International Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonte van Essen

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The ambiguous position of de facto regimes in international law has long been the subject of scholarly debate and a source of political conflict. An assessment of the current standing of these regimes in international law and the consequences of actions by international actors on this status has, however, been long overdue. The manner in which de facto regimes are regarded internationally has serious consequences for the individuals under the influence of this legal grey area. Therefore, the study into this problem and possible solutions is of great significance. The 2011 developments in Northern Africa underline the need of contemporary research into this area. This essay aims to clarify the position of de facto regimes in international law and the influence on their status by actions of international actors. The author first argues that de facto regimes have rights and obligations under international law, which provide them with (some form of international legal personality. He then pleads for a reconsideration of the contemporary legal treatment of these regimes. The author argues against the current system of government recognition and proposes a system that better addresses the needs of both de facto regimes and the international community. 

  6. Estimation of eddy diffusivity coefficient of heat in the upper layers of equatorial Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Zavialov, P.O.; Murty, V.S.N.

    in the Central Equatorial Arabian Sea (CEAS). A comparison of the model computed K sub(h) values with those estimated from the heat balance of the upper layer (50 m) of the sea shows good agreement in the region of weak winds (CEAS) or low turbulent mixing regime...

  7. Chemical shift imaging: a review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brateman, L.

    1986-01-01

    Chemical shift is the phenomenon that is seen when an isotope possessing a nuclear magnetic dipole moment resonates at a spectrum of resonance frequencies in a given magnetic field. These resonance frequencies, or chemical shifts, depend on the chemical environments of particular nuclei. Mapping the spatial distribution of nuclei associated with a particular chemical shift (e.g., hydrogen nuclei associated with water molecules or with lipid groups) is called chemical shift imaging. Several techniques of proton chemical shift imaging that have been applied in vivo are presented, and their clinical findings are reported and summarized. Acquiring high-resolution spectra for large numbers of volume elements in two or three dimensions may be prohibitive because of time constraints, but other methods of imaging lipid of water distributions (i.e., selective excitation, selective saturation, or variations in conventional magnetic resonance imaging pulse sequences) can provide chemical shift information. These techniques require less time, but they lack spectral information. Since fat deposition seen by chemical shift imaging may not be demonstrated by conventional magnetic resonance imaging, certain applications of chemical shift imaging, such as in the determination of fatty liver disease, have greater diagnostic utility than conventional magnetic resonance imaging. Furthermore, edge artifacts caused by chemical shift effects can be eliminated by certain selective methods of data acquisition employed in chemical shift imaging

  8. Size-Dependent Shifts of Plasmon Resonance in Silver Nanoparticle Films Using Controlled Dissolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mogensen, Klaus Bo; Kneipp, Katrin

    2014-01-01

    to a transition from an extrinsic regime for the larger particles, where shifts of the plasmon frequency are related to changes in the dielectric environment, while the dielectric function of the metal is constant, to an intrinsic regime for the smaller particles. For this intrinsic regime, operative for small...... in a corrected electron density. The reported results have potential for developing nanosensors based on small nanoparticles below 5 nm in size by using their intrinsic response to adsorbed analytes. This detection scheme suggests a potential increase in the sensitivity of up to 3×, particularly when redox...

  9. Feasibility of a dual regime gyrotron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sawant, Ashwini; Jain, Prerit; Kartikeyan, M.V.

    2012-01-01

    The design concept of a 42/84 GHz, 500 kW, CW, dual-regime gyrotron for ECRH of plasma in an experimental Tokamak will be presented in this paper. Operation at 42 GHz is fundamental where as that in 84 GHz will be second harmonic so that a similar guidance system will be retained for dual regime operation. In this paper, the mode competition and mode selection procedures are presented for such a dual regime operation. Cold cavity design and self-consistent calculations will be carried out for power and efficiencies. (author)

  10. Can Old Regimes Handle New Wars?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Troels

    Research on New Wars argues that since the 1980s states and regimes have become more vulnerable to violence from non-state actors. Two developments in the Sahel region support the New Wars thesis: an increase in Islamist radicalization and new access to the global black market, both of which......, the paper finds that regimes in the Sahel region are still able to cope with the rise in non-state threats. The paper first shortly compares the longevity of the present regimes in the Sahel region to all previous ones, second examines in-depth how Chad and Mali fight the insurgents. Findings are that since...

  11. Framing of regimes and transition strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jens Stissing

    2012-01-01

    This article suggests that transition strategies are always formulated in the context of specific representations of the regime and the challenges it faces. It is argued that the framing of a regime affects the envisioning of transition strategies. An analysis of the current development agenda...... for the housing construction sector in Denmark reveals the relevance and impacts of different regime framings. It is proposed that the ability to cope with framing issues as situated and political processes is at the core of the governance of transitions....

  12. FEL in transverse optical klystron regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scarlat, F.; Baltateanu, N.

    1994-01-01

    Among all operational regimes of free electron laser (FEL), the transverse optical regime (TOK) requires the least stringent electron beam parameters. The device associated to this regime, also defined as FEL with two or more components, consists of two or more identical interaction sections separated by one or more drift distances among themselves. Starting from the motion equations which describe the interaction between an electron and the radiation inside the undulator, one can obtain some practical expressions for the calculation of the efficiency of the energy transfer from the electron to the radiation, and the gain of the external coherent radiation for a FEL in TOK with three cavities. (Author)

  13. Chemical shift homology in proteins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potts, Barbara C.M.; Chazin, Walter J.

    1998-01-01

    The degree of chemical shift similarity for homologous proteins has been determined from a chemical shift database of over 50 proteins representing a variety of families and folds, and spanning a wide range of sequence homologies. After sequence alignment, the similarity of the secondary chemical shifts of C α protons was examined as a function of amino acid sequence identity for 37 pairs of structurally homologous proteins. A correlation between sequence identity and secondary chemical shift rmsd was observed. Important insights are provided by examining the sequence identity of homologous proteins versus percentage of secondary chemical shifts that fall within 0.1 and 0.3 ppm thresholds. These results begin to establish practical guidelines for the extent of chemical shift similarity to expect among structurally homologous proteins

  14. Shifted-modified Chebyshev filters

    OpenAIRE

    ŞENGÜL, Metin

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a new type of filter approximation method that utilizes shifted-modified Chebyshev filters. Construction of the new filters involves the use of shifted-modified Chebyshev polynomials that are formed using the roots of conventional Chebyshev polynomials. The study also includes 2 tables containing the shifted-modified Chebyshev polynomials and the normalized element values for the low-pass prototype filters up to degree 6. The transducer power gain, group dela...

  15. Portable shift register

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halbig, J.K.; Bourret, S.C.; Hansen, W.J.; Hicks, D.V.; Klosterbuer, S.F.; Krick, M.S.

    1994-01-01

    An electronics package for a small, battery-operated, self-contained, neutron coincidence counter based on a portable shift-register (PSR) has been developed. The counter was developed for applications not adequately addressed by commercial packages, including in-plant measurements to demonstrate compliance with regulations (domestic and international), in-plant process control, and in-field measurements (environmental monitoring or safeguards). Our package's features, which address these applications, include the following: Small size for portability and ease of installation;battery or mains operation; a built-in battery to power the unit and a typical detector such as a small sample counter, for over 6 h if power lines are bad or noisy, if there is a temporary absence of power, or if portability is desired; complete support, including bias, for standard neutron detectors; a powerful communications package to easily facilitate robust external control over a serial port; and a C-library to simplify creating external control programs in computers or other controllers. Whereas the PSR specifically addresses the applications mentioned above, it also performs all the measurements made by previous electronics packages for neutron coincidence counters developed at Los Alamos and commercialized. The PSR electronics package, exclusive of carrying handle, is 8 by 10 by 20 cm; it contains the circuit boards, battery, and bias supply and weighs less than 2 kg. This instrument package is the second in an emerging family of portable measurement instruments being developed; the first was the Miniature and Modular Multichannel Analyzer (M 3 CA). The PSR makes extensive use of hardware and software developed for the M 3 CA; like the M 3 CA, it is intended primarily for use with an external controller interfaced over a serial channel

  16. Transition from linear- to nonlinear-focusing regime in filamentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Khan; Durand, Magali; Baudelet, Matthieu; Richardson, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Laser filamentation in gases is often carried out in the laboratory with focusing optics to better stabilize the filament, whereas real-world applications of filaments frequently involve collimated or near-collimated beams. It is well documented that geometrical focusing can alter the properties of laser filaments and, consequently, a transition between a collimated and a strongly focused filament is expected. Nevertheless, this transition point has not been identified. Here, we propose an analytical method to determine the transition, and show that it corresponds to an actual shift in the balance of physical mechanisms governing filamentation. In high-NA conditions, filamentation is primarily governed by geometrical focusing and plasma effects, while the Kerr nonlinearity plays a more significant role as NA decreases. We find the transition between the two regimes to be relatively insensitive to the intrinsic laser parameters, and our analysis agrees well with a wide range of parameters found in published literature. PMID:25434678

  17. The diet of whiting Merlangius merlangus in the western Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ross, Stine Dalmann; Gislason, Henrik; Andersen, Niels Gerner

    2016-01-01

    The diet of whiting Merlangius merlangus in the western Baltic Sea was investigated and compared to the diet in the southern North Sea. Clupeids were important prey in both areas, but especially in the western Baltic Sea where they constituted up to 90% of the diet of larger individuals. Gobies......, brown shrimps and polychaetes were the main prey of juveniles in the western Baltic Sea, while a wider range of species were consumed in the North Sea. The shift to piscivory occurred at smaller sizes in the western Baltic Sea and the fish prey consumed was proportionately larger than in the southern...

  18. The international climate regime: towards consolidation collapse

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berthaud, P.; Cavard, D.; Criqui, P.

    2003-10-01

    This article deals with the different modalities that exist to manage a problem of collective action in the field of climate negotiation. It uses two concepts of the International Political Economy (IPE): the concept of International Regime (IR) and the concept of Hegemony and / or Leadership. The course the international negotiation has taken between 1992 (Rio Convention) and march 2001 (the US rejection of the Kyoto Protocol of 1997) leads us, first, to question the conditions of existence as well as the viability of a non-hegemonic International Regime (Part One). Then, we discuss the perspectives for the 'post - Kyoto' era. After having examined the preferences of the three most active actors in the negotiation (USA, Europe, G77 + China) combined with the leadership capacities they possess, we identify three scenarios for the future: i) anarchy, ii) an international regime under the American hegemony, iii) an international regime under the European leadership (Part Two). (author)

  19. The CTBT regime, significance and potential benefits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Hong-Lae

    2002-01-01

    This presentation briefly outlines the CTBT's background, describes the activities of the Preparatory Commission, the verification regime, the role of the National Data Centres and international coopereation. The objectives of the Nairobi workshop are listed

  20. Theory versus practice in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobos, Víctor; Partidario, Maria

    2014-01-01

    Could the theory of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) be ahead of its time and decoupled from its practice? This paper evolved in search for this leading research question. Over the years the discourse on SEA experienced a gradual shift from the technocratic and rationalist thinking that supported its origin to more strategic approaches and integrated concepts, suggested since the mid 1990's. In this paper we share the results of our analysis of international thinking and practical experience with SEA. Results reveal that SEA practice changes very slowly when compared to advanced thinking supporting the noted shift. Current SEA practice shows to be still predominantly rooted in the logic of projects' environmental impact assessment (EIA). It is strongly bound to legal and regulatory requirements, and the motivation for its application persists being the delivery of environmental (or final) reports to meet legal obligations. Even though advanced SEA theoretical thinking claim its potential to help decisions to look forward, change mind-sets and the rationale of decision-making to meet sustainability challenges and enhance societal values, we note a weak relationship between the theoretical development of SEA and its practice. Why is this happening? Which factors explain this apparent inertia, resistance to change, in the SEA practice? Results appear to demonstrate the influence of assumptions, understandings, concepts, and beliefs in the use of SEA, which in turn suggest the political sensitivity of the instrument. - Highlights: • Theoretical thinking in SEA is ahead of its time. • SEA international practice reveals inertia to move out of project’ EIA comfort zone. • World current SEA practice show similar understandings of 30 years ago. • 100 world reports and survey of practitioners supported world review. • SEA great challenge is to change paradigms into new scientific complexity theories

  1. Theory versus practice in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lobos, Víctor, E-mail: vlobosg@gmail.com [CEG-IST, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Research Group on Strategic Approaches to Environment and Sustainability (SENSU), 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal); Centro de Estudios del Desarrollo, San Crescente 551, Las Condes, Santiago (Chile); Partidario, Maria [CEG-IST, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Research Group on Strategic Approaches to Environment and Sustainability (SENSU), 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal)

    2014-09-15

    Could the theory of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) be ahead of its time and decoupled from its practice? This paper evolved in search for this leading research question. Over the years the discourse on SEA experienced a gradual shift from the technocratic and rationalist thinking that supported its origin to more strategic approaches and integrated concepts, suggested since the mid 1990's. In this paper we share the results of our analysis of international thinking and practical experience with SEA. Results reveal that SEA practice changes very slowly when compared to advanced thinking supporting the noted shift. Current SEA practice shows to be still predominantly rooted in the logic of projects' environmental impact assessment (EIA). It is strongly bound to legal and regulatory requirements, and the motivation for its application persists being the delivery of environmental (or final) reports to meet legal obligations. Even though advanced SEA theoretical thinking claim its potential to help decisions to look forward, change mind-sets and the rationale of decision-making to meet sustainability challenges and enhance societal values, we note a weak relationship between the theoretical development of SEA and its practice. Why is this happening? Which factors explain this apparent inertia, resistance to change, in the SEA practice? Results appear to demonstrate the influence of assumptions, understandings, concepts, and beliefs in the use of SEA, which in turn suggest the political sensitivity of the instrument. - Highlights: • Theoretical thinking in SEA is ahead of its time. • SEA international practice reveals inertia to move out of project’ EIA comfort zone. • World current SEA practice show similar understandings of 30 years ago. • 100 world reports and survey of practitioners supported world review. • SEA great challenge is to change paradigms into new scientific complexity theories.

  2. Improving the taxation regime for electric power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fjermeros, Morten; Ilstad, Kristine

    2003-01-01

    In Norway, the present taxation regime for electric power is very complex. The power companies are currently charged with ordinary tax on profits, tax on economic rent, tax on natural resources and land tax. In addition there are the rules about licence fees, yield of power due to concession conditions, and reversion. The Norwegian Electricity Industry Association (EBL), assisted by a firm of lawyers, has proposed an improvement over the current taxation regime

  3. Brazil in the global anticorruption regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Tourinho

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Brazilian anticorruption law and institutions were significantly transformed in recent decades. This article traces those transformations and explains how the international anticorruption and money laundering regimes contributed to their development. It argues that those international regimes were internalised in the Brazilian system through three mechanisms: inspiration and legitimation, coercion, and implementation support, and were critical to the transformation of Brazilian institutions.

  4. Portfolio Selection with Jumps under Regime Switching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Zhao

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a continuous-time version of the mean-variance portfolio selection model with jumps under regime switching. The portfolio selection is proposed and analyzed for a market consisting of one bank account and multiple stocks. The random regime switching is assumed to be independent of the underlying Brownian motion and jump processes. A Markov chain modulated diffusion formulation is employed to model the problem.

  5. Do discriminatory pay regimes unleash antisocial behavior?

    OpenAIRE

    Grosch, Kerstin; Rau, Holger A.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we analyze how pay-regime procedures affect antisocial behavior at the workplace. In a real-effort experiment we vary two determinants of pay regimes: discrimination and justification of payments by performance. In our Discrimination treatment half of the workforce is randomly selected and promoted and participate in a tournament (high-income workers) whereas the other half receives no payment (lowincome workers). Afterwards, antisocial behavior is measured by a Joy-of-Destruct...

  6. Anthropogenic Water Uses and River Flow Regime Alterations by Dams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrazzi, M.; Botter, G.

    2017-12-01

    Dams and impoundments have been designed to reconcile the systematic conflict between patterns of anthropogenic water uses and the temporal variability of river flows. Over the past seven decades, population growth and economic development led to a marked increase in the number of these water infrastructures, so that unregulated free-flowing rivers are now rare in developed countries and alterations of the hydrologic cycle at global scale have to be properly considered and characterized. Therefore, improving our understanding of the influence of dams and reservoirs on hydrologic regimes is going to play a key role in water planning and management. In this study, a physically based analytic approach is combined to extensive hydrologic data to investigate natural flow regime alterations downstream of dams in the Central-Eastern United States. These representative case studies span a wide range of different uses, including flood control, water supply and hydropower production. Our analysis reveals that the most evident effects of flood control through dams is a decrease in the intra-seasonal variability of flows, whose extent is controlled by the ratio between the storage capacity for flood control and the average incoming streamflow. Conversely, reservoirs used for water supply lead to an increase of daily streamflow variability and an enhanced inter-catchment heterogeneity. Over the last decades, the supply of fresh water required to sustain human populations has become a major concern at global scale. Accordingly, the number of reservoirs devoted to water supply increased by 50% in the US. This pattern foreshadows a possible shift in the cumulative effect of dams on river flow regimes in terms of inter-catchment homogenization and intra-annual flow variability.

  7. State Structure and Political Regime Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul – Iulian Nedelcu

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The political regime is the concrete form of organization and functioning of political system andtherefore, the regime means the concrete way of organize, institutionalize and function a political systemand of the exercise of political power by a social-political force in a social community or global socialistem. The political regime is not limited to institutions and state bodies, but it covers the entire politicalsystem. Form of expression in social practice plan is the result of balance of forces between classes ofcitizens, organizations, between them and civil society and politics.Designates the concrete form ofgovernment formation and organization, of state bodies, in aspect of their characteristics and principles, therelations between them and other state bodies, and also as the relationship between them and otherinstitutionalized forms of political systems. Instead, the political regime is an explicit realization ofaxiological operations, a specific hierarchy of values, in general and political values, in particular. Even ifsome elements of the political regime overlap to some extent and in some respects, those of form orstructure of guvernamnt state, thus they dissolve his identity, distinct quality of being specific traits of thepolitical regime.

  8. North Sea ecosystem change from swimming crabs to seagulls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luczak, C; Beaugrand, G; Lindley, J A; Dewarumez, J-M; Dubois, P J; Kirby, R R

    2012-10-23

    A recent increase in sea temperature has established a new ecosystem dynamic regime in the North Sea. Climate-induced changes in decapods have played an important role. Here, we reveal a coincident increase in the abundance of swimming crabs and lesser black-backed gull colonies in the North Sea, both in time and in space. Swimming crabs are an important food source for lesser black-backed gulls during the breeding season. Inhabiting the land, but feeding mainly at sea, lesser black-backed gulls provide a link between marine and terrestrial ecosystems, since the bottom-up influence of allochthonous nutrient input from seabirds to coastal soils can structure the terrestrial food web. We, therefore, suggest that climate-driven changes in trophic interactions in the marine food web may also have ensuing ramifications for the coastal ecology of the North Sea.

  9. Lack of seasonal and geographic variation in mesozooplankton biomass in the Arabian Sea and its structure in the mixed layer

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Madhupratap, M.; Gopalakrishnan, T.C.; Haridas, P.; Nair, K.K.C.; Aravindakshan, P.N.; Padmavati, G.; Paul, S.

    by carnivores. A few species, common in all seasons, accounted the majority of the population. The 'paradox' of the Arabian Sea, that zooplankton biomass remains more or less invariant, despite seasonally varying primary production regimes, could be explained...

  10. Genetic diversity and connectivity remain high in eelgrass Zostera marina populations in the Wadden Sea, despite major impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ferber, Steven; Stam, Wytze T.; Olsen, Jeanine L.

    2008-01-01

    Beginning in the 1930s, eelgrass meadows declined throughout the Wadden Sea, leaving populations susceptible to extinction through patchiness, low density and isolation. Additional anthropogenic impacts have altered current regimes, nutrients and turbidity-all of which affect eelgrass. Recent

  11. Balancing Europe's wind power output through spatial deployment informed by weather regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grams, Christian M; Beerli, Remo; Pfenninger, Stefan; Staffell, Iain; Wernli, Heini

    2017-08-01

    As wind and solar power provide a growing share of Europe's electricity1, understanding and accommodating their variability on multiple timescales remains a critical problem. On weekly timescales, variability is related to long-lasting weather conditions, called weather regimes2-5, which can cause lulls with a loss of wind power across neighbouring countries6. Here we show that weather regimes provide a meteorological explanation for multi-day fluctuations in Europe's wind power and can help guide new deployment pathways which minimise this variability. Mean generation during different regimes currently ranges from 22 GW to 44 GW and is expected to triple by 2030 with current planning strategies. However, balancing future wind capacity across regions with contrasting inter-regime behaviour - specifically deploying in the Balkans instead of the North Sea - would almost eliminate these output variations, maintain mean generation, and increase fleet-wide minimum output. Solar photovoltaics could balance low-wind regimes locally, but only by expanding current capacity tenfold. New deployment strategies based on an understanding of continent-scale wind patterns and pan-European collaboration could enable a high share of wind energy whilst minimising the negative impacts of output variability.

  12. Work shifts in Emergency Medicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Recupero

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Emergency Medicine is known as a high stress specialty. The adverse effect of constantly rotating shifts is the single most important reason given for premature attrition from the field. In this work problems tied with night shift work will be taken into account and some solutions to reduce the impact of night work on the emergency physicians will be proposed.

  13. Flexible Schedules and Shift Work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beers, Thomas M.

    2000-01-01

    Flexible work hours have gained prominence, as more than 25 million workers (27.6% of all full-time workers) can now vary their schedules. However, there has been little change since the mid-1980s in the proportion who work a shift other than a regular daytime shift. (JOW)

  14. Invasive Crabs in the Barents Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaiser, Brooks; Fernandez, Linda; Kourantidou, Melina

    The recent invasions of the red king crab (RKC) and the snow crab (SC) in the Barents Sea represent the sorts of integrated ecological and economic shifts we may expect as climate change affects arctic seas. Economic incentives and ecological unknowns have combined to change the current...... and potentially future productivity and profitability of the Barents ecosystem in complex and interacting ways. We examine potential ecological-economic trajectories for these crabs’ continued expansions in the Arctic and how the profitability, the joint and national management structures in Norway and Russia...

  15. Spectral transformations in the regime of pulse self-trapping in a nonlinear photonic crystal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novitsky, Denis V.

    2011-01-01

    We consider the interaction of a femtosecond light pulse with a one-dimensional photonic crystal with relaxing cubic nonlinearity in the regime of self-trapping. By use of numerical simulations, it is shown that, under certain conditions, the spectra of reflected and transmitted light possess the properties of narrowband (quasimonochromatic) or wideband (continuumlike) radiation. It is remarkable that these spectral features appear due to a significant frequency shift and occur inside a photonic band gap of the structure under investigation.

  16. Multiple growth regimes: Insights from unified growth theory

    OpenAIRE

    Galor, Oded

    2007-01-01

    Unified Growth Theory uncovers the forces that contributed to the existence of multiple growth regimes and the emergence of convergence clubs. It suggests that differential timing of take-offs from stagnation to growth segmented economies into three fundamental regimes: slow growing economies in a Malthusian regime, fast growing countries in a sustained growth regime, and economies in the transition between these regimes. In contrast to existing research that links regime switching thresholds...

  17. Flow and heat transfer in laminar–turbulent transitional flow regime under rolling motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Hongsheng; Tan, Sichao; Zhuang, Nailiang; Lan, Shu

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Flow and heat transfer experiment in transitional flow regime under rolling motion. • Increases of average friction factor and Nu were found. • Periodic breakdown of laminar flow contributes to the increase. • Nonlinear variation of pressure drop or Nu with Re also contributes to the increase. • Effect of critical Reynolds number shift was discussed. - Abstract: Flow and heat transfer characteristics under rolling motion are extremely important to thermohydraulic analysis of offshore nuclear reactors. An experimental study was conducted in a heated rectangular channel to investigate flow and heat transfer in laminar–turbulent transitional flow regime under rolling motion. The results showed that the average friction factor and Nusselt number are higher than that of the corresponding steady flow as the flow rate fluctuates in transitional flow regime. Larger relative flow rate fluctuation was observed under larger rolling amplitude or higher rolling frequency. In the same manner, larger increases of average friction factor and Nusselt number were achieved under larger rolling amplitude or higher rolling frequency. The increases were mainly caused by the flow rate fluctuation through periodic breakdown of laminar flow and development of turbulence in laminar–turbulent transitional flow regime. First, turbulence, which enhances the rate of momentum and energy exchange, occurs near the crest of flow rate wave even the flow is still in laminar flow regime according to the average Reynolds number. Second, as a result of rapid increases of the friction and heat transfer with Reynolds number in transitional flow regime, the increases of the friction and the heat transfer near the crest of flow rate wave are larger than the decreases of them near the trough of flow rate wave, which also contributes to increases of average friction and heat transfer. Additionally, the effect of critical Reynolds number shift under unsteady flow and heating

  18. Sea Ice Microorganisms: Environmental Constraints and Extracellular Responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jody W. Deming

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Inherent to sea ice, like other high latitude environments, is the strong seasonality driven by changes in insolation throughout the year. Sea-ice organisms are exposed to shifting, sometimes limiting, conditions of temperature and salinity. An array of adaptations to survive these and other challenges has been acquired by those organisms that inhabit the ice. One key adaptive response is the production of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS, which play multiple roles in the entrapment, retention and survival of microorganisms in sea ice. In this concept paper we consider two main areas of sea-ice microbiology: the physico-chemical properties that define sea ice as a microbial habitat, imparting particular advantages and limits; and extracellular responses elicited in microbial inhabitants as they exploit or survive these conditions. Emphasis is placed on protective strategies used in the face of fluctuating and extreme environmental conditions in sea ice. Gaps in knowledge and testable hypotheses are identified for future research.

  19. Causas estruturais e consequências dos regimes internacionais: regimes como variáveis intervenientes

    OpenAIRE

    Krasner, Stephen D.

    2012-01-01

    Os regimes internacionais são definidos como princípios, normas, regras e procedimentos de tomada de decisões ao redor dos quais as expectativas dos atores convergem em uma dada área-tema. Como ponto de partida, os regimes são conceituados como variáveis intervenientes, estando entre fatores causais básicos e os resultados e comportamentos relacionados. Há três visões a respeito da importância dos regimes: as orientações estruturais convencionais desvalorizam os regimes como sendo, na melhor ...

  20. Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew L.; Cullinan, Valerie; Downs, Janelle; McKinley, Randy

    2016-01-01

    Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

  1. Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature

    KAUST Repository

    Chaidez, Veronica

    2017-08-09

    Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade-1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century1. However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea\\'s thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade-1, while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade-1, all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

  2. Transformative Shifts in Art History Teaching: The Impact of Standards-Based Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ormond, Barbara

    2011-01-01

    This article examines pedagogical shifts in art history teaching that have developed as a response to the implementation of a standards-based assessment regime. The specific characteristics of art history standards-based assessment in the context of New Zealand secondary schools are explained to demonstrate how an exacting form of assessment has…

  3. Progress towards a global nuclear liability regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    During its April 2014 meeting, the Steering Committee for Nuclear Energy held a policy debate on 'Progress towards a Global Nuclear Liability Regime'. The Steering Committee heard presentations from several experts on nuclear liability issues. To prepare the delegates to the Steering Committee for the policy debate, the NEA Secretariat prepared a background note on the status of the nuclear liability regimes, as well as on current issues and challenges in implementing the regimes. This article is based on the background note and is intended to provide basic information on the relevant international conventions and an overview of recent developments to enhance the understanding of the legal framework in which policy-makers and practitioners are engaging to respond to the call for broader adherence to the international liability instruments. (authors)

  4. Determination of the Hall Thruster Operating Regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    L. Dorf; V. Semenov; Y. Raitses; N.J. Fisch

    2002-04-01

    A quasi one-dimensional (1-D) steady-state model of the Hall thruster is presented. For the same discharge voltage two operating regimes are possible -- with and without the anode sheath. For given mass flow rate, magnetic field profile and discharge voltage a unique solution can be constructed, assuming that the thruster operates in one of the regimes. However, we show that for a given temperature profile the applied discharge voltage uniquely determines the operating regime: for discharge voltages greater than a certain value, the sheath disappears. That result is obtained over a wide range of incoming neutral velocities, channel lengths and widths, and cathode plane locations. It is also shown that a good correlation between the quasi 1-D model and experimental results can be achieved by selecting an appropriate electron mobility and temperature profile

  5. Causas estruturais e consequências dos regimes internacionais: regimes como variáveis intervenientes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen D. Krasner

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Os regimes internacionais são definidos como princípios, normas, regras e procedimentos de tomada de decisões ao redor dos quais as expectativas dos atores convergem em uma dada área-tema. Como ponto de partida, os regimes são conceituados como variáveis intervenientes, estando entre fatores causais básicos e os resultados e comportamentos relacionados. Há três visões a respeito da importância dos regimes: as orientações estruturais convencionais desvalorizam os regimes como sendo, na melhor das hipóteses, ineficazes; as orientações grocianas vêem os regimes como componentes íntimos do sistema internacional; as perspectivas estruturalistas modificadas vêem os regimes como significativos somente em certas condições restritas. Para os argumentos grociano e estruturalista modificado - que concordam com a visão de que os regimes podem influenciar resultados e comportamentos - , o desenvolvimento de regimes é visto como uma função de cinco variáveis causais básicas: auto-interesse egoísta; poder político; normas e princípios difusos; usos e costumes; conhecimento.

  6. The Hamburg sea-ice model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoessel, A.; Owens, W.B.

    1992-10-01

    The general purpose of the model is to simulate sea ice dynamically as well as thermodynamically. Pure sea-ice models are generally highly dependent on the specified atmospheric and oceanic forcing, especially on the winds and the vertical oceanic heat flux. In order to reduce these dependencies, the sea-ice [SI] model was extended to optionally include a prognostic oceanic mixed layer [OML], a diagnostic atmospheric surface layer [ASL] and/or a diagnostic atmospheric boundary layer [ABL], thus shifting the forcing levels further away from the surface (i.e. from the sea ice) and simultaneously providing a modification of the forcing considering boundary-layer adjustments to the instantaneous sea-ice conditions given by the SI model. A further major extension of the model is the (optional) employment of a prognostic snow layer. The special application characterising the present code was sea-ice simulation in the Southern Ocean, employing a spherical, circumpolar grid with a resolution of 2.5 in latitude and 5 in longitude, extending from 50 S to 80 S and using a daily time step. (orig.)

  7. Lava Fountaining Discharge Regime driven by Slug-to-Churn Flow Transition. (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripepe, M.; Pioli, L.; Marchetti, E.; Ulivieri, G.

    2013-12-01

    Lava fountaining episodes at Etna volcano appear characterized by the transition between Strombolian and Hawaiian end-member eruptive styles. There is no evidence for this transition in the seismic (i.e. seismic tremor) signal. However, infrasonic records provide unprecedented evidence on this flow transition. Each eruptive episode is characterized by distinctive common trend in the amplitude, waveform and frequency content of the infrasonic wavefield, which evidences the shift from discrete, and transient, strombolian to sustained, and oscillatory, lava fountain dynamics. Large scale experiments on the dynamics of two-phase flow of basaltic magmas show how the transition between different regimes mainly depends on gas volume flow, which in turn controls pressure distribution within the conduit and also magma vesicularity. In particular, while regular large bubble bursting is associated with slug flow regime, large amplitude and low frequency column oscillations are associated with churn flow. In large pipes, transition from slug to churn flow regime is independent on conduit diameter and it is reached at high superficial gas velocity. Lava fountaining episodes at Etna can be thus interpreted as induced by the transition from the slug (discrete strombolian) to churn flow (sustained lava fountain) regimes that is reflecting an increase in the gas discharge rate. Based on laboratory experiments, we calculate that transition between these two end-member explosive regimes at Etna occurs when gas superficial velocity is 76 m/s for near-the-vent stagnant magma conditions.

  8. DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN NIGERIA: A MARKOV REGIME-SWITCHING APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akinlo A. Enisan

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Several studies have analyzed the movement of foreign direct investment in Nigeria using linear approach. In contrast with all existing studies in Nigeria, this paper runs several non linear FDI equations where the main determinants of FDI are determined using Markov- Regime Switching Model (MSMs. The approach enables us to observe structural changes, where exist, in FDI equations through time. Asides, where FDI regression equation is truly nonlinear, MSMs fit data better than the linear models. The paper adopts maximum likelihood methodology of Markov-Regime Model (MSM to identify possible structural changes in level and/or trends and possible changes in parameters of independent variables through the transition probabilities. The results show that FDI process in Nigeria is governed by two different regimes and a shift from one regime to another regime depends on transition probabilities. The results show that the main determinants of FDI are GDP growth, macro instability, financial development, exchange rate, inflation and discount rate. This implies liberalization that stems inflation and enhance the value of domestic currency will attract more FDI into the country.

  9. Coulomb drag in the mesoscopic regime

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, N. Asger; Flensberg, Karsten; Jauho, Antti-Pekka

    2002-01-01

    We present a theory for Coulomb drug between two mesoscopic systems which expresses the drag in terms of scattering matrices and wave functions. The formalism can be applied to both ballistic and disordered systems and the consequences can be studied either by numerical simulations or analytic...... means such as perturbation theory or random matrix theory. The physics of Coulomb drag in the mesoscopic regime is very different from Coulomb drag between extended electron systems. In the mesoscopic regime we in general find fluctuations of the drag comparable to the mean value. Examples are vanishing...

  10. Coulomb drag in the mesoscopic regime

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, N.A.; Flensberg, Karsten; Jauho, Antti-Pekka

    2002-01-01

    We present a theory for Coulomb drag between two mesoscopic systems which expresses the drag in terms of scattering matrices and wave functions. The formalism can be applied to both ballistic and disordered systems and the consequences can be studied either by numerical simulations or analytic...... means such as perturbation theory or random matrix theory. The physics of Coulomb drag in the mesoscopic regime is very different from Coulomb drag between extended electron systems. In the mesoscopic regime we in general find fluctuations of the drag comparable to the mean value. Examples are vanishing...

  11. WELFARE REGIMES IN LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melisa Campana-Alabarce

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This article provides a characterization of Latin American and Caribbean Welfare regimes in historiographical perspective. Firstly, it makes a review of the emergence conditions of Welfare States in Western Europe and its core features, with particular emphasis on its role as a method to regulate inequalities in industrial capitalism. Dialoguing with it, then stops in the specific configurations that welfare regimes have taken in Latin America during the course of the twentieth century. Finally, it provides a map of its contemporary features and the major challenges that the States of the region face in his capacity as right guarantors for the future.

  12. The oil tax regime of Azerbaijan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Gerard

    1998-07-01

    Azerbaijan has a long history in the oil business and a chance of a spectacular future. To understand why the oil tax regime evolved into its present form and how it is likely to develop, it is necessary to know something of the country's history and the commercial environment. Consequently the presentation begins by discussing these items. It then outlines the Production Sharing Agreement regime in Azerbaijan and then deals with the Kazakh and Georgian Tax Codes, as these are likely to be the basis of a new general tax law in Azerbaijan from 1999. The presentation includes comments on the New Draft Tax Code of 1998.

  13. The oil tax regime of Azerbaijan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Gerard

    1998-07-01

    Azerbaijan has a long history in the oil business and a chance of a spectacular future. To understand why the oil tax regime evolved into its present form and how it is likely to develop, it is necessary to know something of the country's history and the commercial environment. Consequently the presentation begins by discussing these items. It then outlines the Production Sharing Agreement regime in Azerbaijan and then deals with the Kazakh and Georgian Tax Codes, as these are likely to be the basis of a new general tax law in Azerbaijan from 1999. The presentation includes comments on the New Draft Tax Code of 1998.

  14. Regimes of flow past a vortex generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Velte, Clara Marika; Okulov, V.L.; Naumov, I.V.

    2012-01-01

    A complete parametric investigation of the development of multi-vortex regimes in a wake past simple vortex generator has been carried out. It is established that the vortex structure in the wake is much more complicated than a simple monopole tip vortex. The vortices were studied by stereoscopic...... particle image velocimetry (SPIV). Based on the obtained SPIV data, a map of the regimes of flow past the vortex generator has been constructed. One region with a developed stable multivortex system on this map reaches the vicinity of the optimum angle of attack of the vortex generator....

  15. Flocking regimes in a simple lattice model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond, J R; Evans, M R

    2006-03-01

    We study a one-dimensional lattice flocking model incorporating all three of the flocking criteria proposed by Reynolds [Computer Graphics 21, 4 (1987)]: alignment, centering, and separation. The model generalizes that introduced by O. J. O'Loan and M. R. Evans [J. Phys. A. 32, L99 (1999)]. We motivate the dynamical rules by microscopic sampling considerations. The model exhibits various flocking regimes: the alternating flock, the homogeneous flock, and dipole structures. We investigate these regimes numerically and within a continuum mean-field theory.

  16. Legal Regimes of Official Information in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serhii Yesimov

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In the article on the basis of the methodology of system analysis the legal nature and sources of legal regulation of the legal regime of official information in Ukraine in the conditions of adaptation of Ukrainian legislation to the legislation of the European Union are considered. A comparative legal analysis of official information in the public-law and private-law spheres in the context of legal regimes of restricted information, confidential information and information classified as state secrets has been conducted.

  17. Inequalities for scattering phase shifts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baumgartner, B.; Grosse, H.

    1985-01-01

    A recently developed method, which was used to derive bounds on energy levels, is applied to continuous spectra and gives relations between scattering phase shifts of various angular momenta. (Author)

  18. Isotope shifts in unstable nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rebel, H.

    1980-05-01

    Current experimental investigations of isotope shifts in atomic spectra of unstable nuclei and the resulting information about size and shape of nuclei far off stability are discussed with reference to some representative examples. (orig.)

  19. Profiling bacterial communities associated with sediment-based aquaculture bioremediation systems under contrasting redox regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Georgina; Caldwell, Gary S.; Wade, Matthew J.; Free, Andrew; Jones, Clifford L. W.; Stead, Selina M.

    2016-12-01

    Deposit-feeding invertebrates are proposed bioremediators in microbial-driven sediment-based aquaculture effluent treatment systems. We elucidate the role of the sediment reduction-oxidation (redox) regime in structuring benthic bacterial communities, having direct implications for bioremediation potential and deposit-feeder nutrition. The sea cucumber Holothuria scabra was cultured on sediments under contrasting redox regimes; fully oxygenated (oxic) and redox stratified (oxic-anoxic). Taxonomically, metabolically and functionally distinct bacterial communities developed between the redox treatments with the oxic treatment supporting the greater diversity; redox regime and dissolved oxygen levels were the main environmental drivers. Oxic sediments were colonised by nitrifying bacteria with the potential to remediate nitrogenous wastes. Percolation of oxygenated water prevented the proliferation of anaerobic sulphate-reducing bacteria, which were prevalent in the oxic-anoxic sediments. At the predictive functional level, bacteria within the oxic treatment were enriched with genes associated with xenobiotics metabolism. Oxic sediments showed the greater bioremediation potential; however, the oxic-anoxic sediments supported a greater sea cucumber biomass. Overall, the results indicate that bacterial communities present in fully oxic sediments may enhance the metabolic capacity and bioremediation potential of deposit-feeder microbial systems. This study highlights the benefits of incorporating deposit-feeding invertebrates into effluent treatment systems, particularly when the sediment is oxygenated.

  20. The Red Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum: implications for sea level reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gildor, H.; Biton, E.; Peltier, W. R.

    2006-12-01

    The Red Sea (RS) is a semi-enclosed basin connected to the Indian Ocean via a narrow and shallow strait, and surrounded by arid areas which exhibits high sensitivity to atmospheric changes and sea level reduction. We have used the MIT GCM to investigate the changes in the hydrography and circulation in the RS in response to reduced sea level, variability in the Indian monsoons, and changes in atmospheric temperature and humidity that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The model results show high sensitivity to sea level reduction especially in the salinity field (increasing with the reduction in sea level) together with a mild atmospheric impact. Sea level reduction decreases the stratification, increases subsurface temperatures, and alters the circulation pattern at the Strait of Bab el Mandab, which experiences a transition from submaximal flow to maximal flow. The reduction in sea level at LGM alters the location of deep water formation which shifts to an open sea convective site in the northern part of the RS compared to present day situation in which deep water is formed from the Gulf of Suez outflow. Our main result based on both the GCM and on a simple hydraulic control model which takes into account mixing process at the Strait of Bab El Mandeb, is that sea level was reduced by only ~100 m in the Bab El Mandeb region during the LGM, i.e. the water depth at the Hanish sill (the shallowest part in the Strait Bab el Mandab) was around 34 m. This result agrees with the recent reconstruction of the LGM low stand of the sea in this region based upon the ICE-5G (VM2) model of Peltier (2004).

  1. Statistics of exchange rate regimes in Nigeria | Iwueze | Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The three distinct exchange rate regimes of Nigeria were subjected to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling in order to compare them with respect to model structure. It was found that the three regimes admit different models. Regime one admits Moving average model of order 2, Regime two admits ...

  2. Technological regimes and sources of entrepreneurship

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marsili, O.

    2002-01-01

    This paper concerns the technological determinants of entrepreneurial behaviour. By applying a typology of technological regimes, which describes the nature of the technological environment in which firms operate, this paper examines the sources and obstacles to entrepreneurial entry related to the

  3. Searching for an Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunjong Wang

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to survey current debates on the choice of exchange rate regime in emerging market economies. The issue of choosing an appropriate exchange rate regime is being actively discussed since the recent Asian crisis. As a lesson from the recent crises, one widely shared conclusion is that soft peg exchange rate regimes are extremely vulnerable in a world of volatile capital movements. Consequently, new orthodoxy based on the impossible trinity hypothesis favours two corner solutions ― greater flexibility or credible institutional assurance, like a currency board system or dollarization. Nevertheless, questions whether such corner solutions are adequate for developing countries are rising of late. "Fear of floating" is still conspicuous in many developing countries having adopted nominally a free-floating exchange rate regime. Developing countries are sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations because the cost of exchange rate volatility is greater than the benefit when compared to developed countries. Monitoring bands is a compromise solution, but it still needs further enhancement of estimation techniques for fundamental equilibrium exchange rates in order to make those estimation results more workable in practice. Other alternatives include the creation of soft peg of the G-3 currencies. Despite counterarguments, the stability of G-3 currencies could prove to be beneficial to emerging market economies.

  4. Negotiating a regime to control global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sebenius, J.K.

    1991-01-01

    For purposes of analysis, this paper has uncritically maintained that the prospect of a serious climate problem exists and has only lightly examined the broader advantages and drawbacks of various proposed policy and institutional responses. Crucial as they are to a full treatment of the issues, these underlying substantive and policy questions enter the analysis primarily insofar as they affect the likely outcomes of pending and potential negotiations. To an advocate of a new greenhouse control regime, the fundamental negotiating task is to craft and sustain a meaningful winning coalition of countries backing such a regime. Two centrally necessary conditions for the fundamental task are: (1) that each member of the coalition see enough gain in the regime relative to the alternatives to adhere and (2) the potential and actual blocking coalitions of interests opposed to the regime be prevented from forming and from being acceptably accommodated or otherwise neutralized. The analysis of this paper is organized around key questions whose answers will influence whether and how these two necessary conditions might (or might not) be met

  5. Yukon's common oil and gas regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Love, B.

    1998-01-01

    The Yukon's common oil and gas regime was developed in partnership with First Nations and it sets out the rules that will apply throughout the Yukon and on Yukon and First Nation lands. While separate and distinct, it conforms with and is compatible with other government systems and regimes. The major elements of the common regime include the Oil and Gas Act, regulations, policies, processes and agreements. The specific opportunities that are available in each phase of oil and gas development in the Yukon are described, with a map showing all basins, reserves and sites of current oil and gas activity. The Yukon has eight potential oil and gas basins: North Coast, Old Crow, Kandik, Eagle Plain, Peel Plateau, Bonnet Plume, Whitehorse Trough, and Liard Plateau. Only three of the eight, the Liard Plateau, Whitehorse Trough and Eagle Plain, have been explored. No wells have been drilled in several of Yukon's basins. Factors influencing economic opportunities in the Territory are also described, including: (1) international events and energy markets, (2) North American gas markets, (3) environmental factors, (4) competitiveness of the Yukon regime, and (5) the commitment of industry resources. 4 figs

  6. Technological regimes and sources of entrepreneurship

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marsili, O.

    2000-01-01

    This paper concerns the technological detenninants of entrepreneurial behaviour. By applying a typology of technological regimes, which describes the nature of the technological environment in which finns operate, this paper examines the sources and obstacle to entrepreneurial entry related to the

  7. Comprehensive review of the maritime safety regimes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Knapp (Sabine); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractThis report presents a comprehensive review of the maritime safety regimes and provides recommendations on how to improve the system. The results show a complex legal framework which generates a high amount of inspections and overlapping of inspection areas where no cross-recognition is

  8. Plugging regime in the pump limiter throat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghendrih, P.; Grosman, A.; Samain, A.; Capes, H.; Morera, J.P.

    1988-08-01

    The plugging regime -with no outstreaming neutral flux- is studied for a closed configuration pump limiter (throat). We derive the plugging length and the neutral density build-up at the neutralizer plate. The analytical expressions are supported by numerical evidence. We find an improved efficiency related to the throat effect mainly due to neutral-sidewall interactions

  9. European welfare regimes: Political orientations versus poverty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josifidis Kosta

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This inquiry analyzes how political orientations shape welfare states and labour market institutions when seeking to reduce poverty. In order to identify effects of these two key variables, we conduct a panel regression analysis that includes two poverty measures: poverty rates before and after social spending. This inquiry considers 14 EU countries, and in the period from 1995 to 2008, which are grouped according to welfare state regimes. We consider Social Democratic, Corporatist, Mediterranean and Liberal welfare state regimes. Panel regression results indicate that political orientation engenders no significant statistically measurable effects on poverty rates before social spending. Effects register, however, as significant when considering poverty rates after social spending. With respect to the first set of results, we advance two key explanations. First, we note a longer period of time is necessary in order to observe actual effects of political orientation on market generated poverty. Second, political parties with their respective programs do not register as influential enough to solve social problems related to income distribution when taken alone. Influences register as indirect and are expressed through changes in employment rates and social spending. The second set of results support the hypothesis that a selected political regime does indeed contribute to poverty reduction. In sum, political orientation and political regime does indeed affect poverty through welfare state institutions, as well as through labour market institutions.

  10. Radiative effects of global MODIS cloud regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Cho, Nayeong; Lee, Dongmin; Kato, Seiji

    2018-01-01

    We update previously published MODIS global cloud regimes (CRs) using the latest MODIS cloud retrievals in the Collection 6 dataset. We implement a slightly different derivation method, investigate the composition of the regimes, and then proceed to examine several aspects of CR radiative appearance with the aid of various radiative flux datasets. Our results clearly show the CRs are radiatively distinct in terms of shortwave, longwave and their combined (total) cloud radiative effect. We show that we can clearly distinguish regimes based on whether they radiatively cool or warm the atmosphere, and thanks to radiative heating profiles to discern the vertical distribution of cooling and warming. Terra and Aqua comparisons provide information about the degree to which morning and afternoon occurrences of regimes affect the symmetry of CR radiative contribution. We examine how the radiative discrepancies among multiple irradiance datasets suffering from imperfect spatiotemporal matching depend on CR, and whether they are therefore related to the complexity of cloud structure, its interpretation by different observational systems, and its subsequent representation in radiative transfer calculations. PMID:29619289

  11. Radiative Effects of Global MODIS Cloud Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oraiopoulos, Lazaros; Cho, Nayeong; Lee, Dong Min; Kato, Seiji

    2016-01-01

    We update previously published MODIS global cloud regimes (CRs) using the latest MODIS cloud retrievals in the Collection 6 dataset. We implement a slightly different derivation method, investigate the composition of the regimes, and then proceed to examine several aspects of CR radiative appearance with the aid of various radiative flux datasets. Our results clearly show the CRs are radiatively distinct in terms of shortwave, longwave and their combined (total) cloud radiative effect. We show that we can clearly distinguish regimes based on whether they radiatively cool or warm the atmosphere, and thanks to radiative heating profiles to discern the vertical distribution of cooling and warming. Terra and Aqua comparisons provide information about the degree to which morning and afternoon occurrences of regimes affect the symmetry of CR radiative contribution. We examine how the radiative discrepancies among multiple irradiance datasets suffering from imperfect spatiotemporal matching depend on CR, and whether they are therefore related to the complexity of cloud structure, its interpretation by different observational systems, and its subsequent representation in radiative transfer calculations.

  12. The Forex Regime and EMU Expansion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.W. van Foreest; C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractThis paper provides empirical evidence that, irrespective of the foreign exchange rate regime, countries with high monetary volatility have lower relative output growth rates. It is argued that due to the forward looking nature of the foreign exchange market, exchange rate stability

  13. Trust in regulatory regimes: scoping the field

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Six, F.E.; Verhoest, Koen

    2017-01-01

    This edited volume is the first endeavour to systematically investigate the role of trust in the different relations within regulatory regimes. Trust as a multifaceted concept is contested within public administration and political science in general and especially within the relation between

  14. A Comparative Typology of Pension Regimes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arjan Soede; Cok Vrooman

    2008-01-01

    This report presents an empirical typology of pension regimes in the European Union, the US, Canada, Australia and Norway. The categorisation is based on 34 quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the mandatory parts of the pension systems in these countries. The empirical analysis shows

  15. An emissions trading regime for Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, S.L.

    2001-01-01

    In 1998, over twelve papers were published on emissions trading regimes in Canada by the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE), a federal government agency whose members represent stakeholders as varied as business, environmental groups, academics, aboriginal groups and others. One of the recommendations that emerged was for the computer modelling of the possibilities that had been identified for a domestic trading regime in Canada for greenhouse gases. It is unclear whether the modelling was ever performed as the file was taken over by the Finance Department under the umbrella of a special emission trading table that examined Canada's commitment under the Kyoto Protocol. The author examined questions pertaining to whether a domestic trading regime is essential, and what its characteristics should be in case it was deemed essential or advisable to have one. The upstream versus downstream application was looked at, as well as grand-fathering versus auction. Provincial issues were then addressed, followed by meshing with a credit system. International systems were reviewed. Early action was discussed, whereby an emitter seeks credit for action taken toward reductions since the original reference year of 1990. The case of emitters having bought or sold permits since the original reference years will also want those trades recognized under a trading regime. The author indicated that it seems probable that an emission trading system will eventually be implemented and that a debate on the issue should be initiated early

  16. EUROPEAN INFLUENCE ON ETHIOPIAN ANTITRUST REGIME:

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eliasn

    Introduction. Despite a noticeable European influence on the Ethiopian competition legal regime, some aspects of Ethiopia's 2003 Trade Practice Proclamation are still inadequate to appropriately deal with certain competition problems. The limitations of the rules need to be put right since achievement of the very goals of ...

  17. [The "specific" liability regime for blood products].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byk, Christian

    2017-10-13

    Based on the system of liability for defective products as organized by the European Directive of 25 July 1985, responsibility for blood products does not therefore constitute a genuine specific regime. However, European law leaves States a margin of discretion in the implementation of the Directive with regard to health products. This is the case in particular with the exemption for development risk.

  18. Sea Lion Diet Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — California sea lions pup and breed at four of the nine Channel Islands in southern California. Since 1981, SWFSC MMTD has been conducting a diet study of sea lions...

  19. Altered stream-flow regimes and invasive plant species: The Tamarix case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stromberg, J.C.; Lite, S.J.; Marler, R.; Paradzick, C.; Shafroth, P.B.; Shorrock, D.; White, J.M.; White, M.S.

    2007-01-01

    Aim: To test the hypothesis that anthropogenic alteration of stream-flow regimes is a key driver of compositional shifts from native to introduced riparian plant species. Location: The arid south-western United States; 24 river reaches in the Gila and Lower Colorado drainage basins of Arizona. Methods: We compared the abundance of three dominant woody riparian taxa (native Populus fremontii and Salix gooddingii, and introduced Tamarix) between river reaches that varied in stream-flow permanence (perennial vs. intermittent), presence or absence of an upstream flow-regulating dam, and presence or absence of municipal effluent as a stream water source. Results: Populus and Salix were the dominant pioneer trees along the reaches with perennial flow and a natural flood regime. In contrast, Tamarix had high abundance (patch area and basal area) along reaches with intermittent stream flows (caused by natural and cultural factors), as well as those with dam-regulated flows. Main conclusions: Stream-flow regimes are strong determinants of riparian vegetation structure, and hydrological alterations can drive dominance shifts to introduced species that have an adaptive suite of traits. Deep alluvial groundwater on intermittent rivers favours the deep-rooted, stress-adapted Tamarix over the shallower-rooted and more competitive Populus and Salix. On flow-regulated rivers, shifts in flood timing favour the reproductively opportunistic Tamarix over Populus and Salix, both of which have narrow germination windows. The prevailing hydrological conditions thus favour a new dominant pioneer species in the riparian corridors of the American Southwest. These results reaffirm the importance of reinstating stream-flow regimes (inclusive of groundwater flows) for re-establishing the native pioneer trees as the dominant forest type. ?? 2007 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  20. Dispersal limitation drives successional pathways in Central Siberian forests under current and intensified fire regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tautenhahn, Susanne; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Jung, Martin; Kattge, Jens; Bohlman, Stephanie A; Heilmeier, Hermann; Prokushkin, Anatoly; Kahl, Anja; Wirth, Christian

    2016-06-01

    Fire is a primary driver of boreal forest dynamics. Intensifying fire regimes due to climate change may cause a shift in boreal forest composition toward reduced dominance of conifers and greater abundance of deciduous hardwoods, with potential biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks to regional and global climate. This shift has already been observed in some North American boreal forests and has been attributed to changes in site conditions. However, it is unknown if the mechanisms controlling fire-induced changes in deciduous hardwood cover are similar among different boreal forests, which differ in the ecological traits of the dominant tree species. To better understand the consequences of intensifying fire regimes in boreal forests, we studied postfire regeneration in five burns in the Central Siberian dark taiga, a vast but poorly studied boreal region. We combined field measurements, dendrochronological analysis, and seed-source maps derived from high-resolution satellite images to quantify the importance of site conditions (e.g., organic layer depth) vs. seed availability in shaping postfire regeneration. We show that dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers was the main factor determining postfire regeneration composition and density. Site conditions had significant but weaker effects. We used information on postfire regeneration to develop a classification scheme for successional pathways, representing the dominance of deciduous hardwoods vs. evergreen conifers at different successional stages. We estimated the spatial distribution of different successional pathways under alternative fire regime scenarios. Under intensified fire regimes, dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers is predicted to become more severe, primarily due to reduced abundance of surviving seed sources within burned areas. Increased dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers, in turn, is predicted to increase the prevalence of successional pathways dominated by deciduous hardwoods

  1. Massive outbreaks of Noctiluca scintillans blooms in the Arabian Sea due to spread of hypoxia.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gomes, H.R.; Goes, J.I.; Matondkar, S.G.P.; Buskey, E.J.; Basu, S.; Parab, S.G.; Thoppil, P.G.

    In the last decade, the northern Arabian Sea has witnessed a radical shift in the composition of winter phytoplankton blooms, which previously comprised mainly of diatoms, the unicellular, siliceous photosynthetic organisms favoured by nutrient...

  2. The global safety regime - Setting the stage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meserve, R.A.

    2005-01-01

    The existing global safety regime has arisen from the exercise of sovereign authority, with an overlay of voluntary international cooperation from a network of international and regional organizations and intergovernmental agreements. This system has, in the main, served us well. For several reasons, the time is ripe to consider the desired shape of a future global safety regime and to take steps to achieve it. First, every nation's reliance on nuclear power is hostage to some extent to safety performance elsewhere in the world because of the effects on public attitudes and hence there is an interest in ensuring achievement of common standards. Second, the world is increasingly interdependent and the vendors of nuclear power plants seek to market their products throughout the globe. Efficiency would arise from the avoidance of needless differences in approach that require custom modifications from country to country. Finally, we have much to learn from each other and a common effort would strengthen us all. Such an effort might also serve to enhance public confidence. Some possible characteristics of such a regime can be identified. The regime should reflect a global consensus on the level of safety that should be achieved. There should be sufficient standardization of approach so that expertise and equipment can be used everywhere without significant modification. There should be efforts to ensure a fundamental commitment to safety and the encouragement of a safety culture. And there should be efforts to adopt more widely the best regulatory practices, recognizing that some modifications in approach may be necessary to reflect each nation's legal and social culture. At the same type, the regime should have the characteristics of flexibility, transparency, stability, practicality, and encouragement of competence. (author)

  3. Dune growth under multidirectional wind regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadal, C.; Rozier, O.; Claudin, P.; Courrech Du Pont, S.; Narteau, C.

    2017-12-01

    Under unidirectional wind regimes, flat sand beds become unstable to produce periodic linear dunes, commonly called transverse dunes because their main ridges are oriented perpendicular to the air flow. In areas of low sediment availability, the same interactions between flow, transport and topography produce barchan dunes, isolated sand-pile migrating over long distances with a characteristic crescentic shape. For the last fifteen years, barchan dunes and the instability at the origin of transverse dunes have been the subject of numerous studies that have identified a set of characteristic length and time scales with respect to the physical properties of both grains and fluid. This is not the case for dunes developing under multidirectional wind regimes. Under these conditions, dune orientation is measured with respect to the direction of the resultant sand flux. Depending on the wind regime, dunes do not always line up perpendicularly to the resultant sand flux, but can also be at an oblique angle or even parallel to it. These oblique and longitudinal dunes are ubiquitous in all deserts on Earth and planetary bodies because of the seasonal variability of wind orientation. They are however poorly constrained by observations and there is still no complete theoretical framework providing a description of their orientation and initial wavelength. Here, we extend the linear stability analysis of a flat sand of bed done in two dimensions for a unidirectional flow to three dimensions and multidirectional flow regimes. We are able to recover transitions from transverse to oblique or longitudinal dune patterns according to changes in wind regimes. We besides give a prediction for the initial dune wavelength. Our results compare well to previous theory of dune orientation and to field, experimental and numerical data.

  4. Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaidez, V; Dreano, D; Agusti, S; Duarte, C M; Hoteit, I

    2017-08-15

    Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade -1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century 1 . However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade -1 , while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade -1 , all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

  5. Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature

    KAUST Repository

    Chaidez, Veronica; Dreano, Denis; Agusti, Susana; Duarte, Carlos M.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2017-01-01

    Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade-1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century1. However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade-1, while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade-1, all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

  6. Shifting schedules: the health effects of reorganizing shift work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambra, Clare L; Whitehead, Margaret M; Sowden, Amanda J; Akers, Joanne; Petticrew, Mark P

    2008-05-01

    Approximately one fifth of workers are engaged in some kind of shift work. The harmful effects of shift work on the health and work-life balance of employees are well known. A range of organizational interventions has been suggested to address these negative effects. This study undertook the systematic review (following Quality Of Reporting Of Meta [QUORUM] analyses guidelines) of experimental and quasi-experimental studies, from any country (in any language) that evaluated the effects on health and work-life balance of organizational-level interventions that redesign shift work schedules. Twenty-seven electronic databases (medical, social science, economic) were searched. Data extraction and quality appraisal were carried out by two independent reviewers. Narrative synthesis was performed. The review was conducted between October 2005 and November 2006. Twenty-six studies were found relating to a variety of organizational interventions. No one type of intervention was found to be consistently harmful to workers. However, three types were found to have beneficial effects on health and work-life balance: (1) switching from slow to fast rotation, (2) changing from backward to forward rotation, and (3) self-scheduling of shifts. Improvements were usually at little or no direct organizational cost. However, there were concerns about the generalizability of the evidence, and no studies reported on impacts on health inequalities. This review reinforces the findings of epidemiologic and laboratory-based research by suggesting that certain organizational-level interventions can improve the health of shift workers, their work-life balance, or both. This evidence could be useful when designing interventions to improve the experience of shift work.

  7. Are Calanus spp. shifting poleward in the North Atlantic? A habitat modelling approach

    KAUST Repository

    Chust, Guillem

    2013-09-16

    In the last decade, the analysis based on Continuous Plankton Recorder survey in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean detected one of the most striking examples of marine poleward migration related to sea warming. The main objective of this study is to verify the poleward shift of zooplankton species (Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis, C. helgolandicus, C. hyperboreus) for which distributional changes have been recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean and to assess how much of this shift was triggered by sea warming, using Generalized Additive Models. To this end, the population gravity centre of observed data was compared with that of a series of simulation experiments: (i) a model using only climate factors (i.e. niche-based model) to simulate species habitat suitability, (ii) a model using only temporal and spatial terms to reconstruct the population distribution, and (iii) a model using both factors combined, using a subset of observations as independent dataset for validation. Our findings show that only C. finmarchicus had a consistent poleward shift, triggered by sea warming, estimated in 8.1 km per decade in the North Atlantic (16.5 per decade for the northeast), which is substantially lower than previous works at the assemblage level and restricted to the Northeast Atlantic. On the contrary, C. helgolandicus is expanding in all directions, although its northern distribution limit in the North Sea has shifted northward. Calanus glacialis and C. hyperboreus, which have the geographic centres of populations mainly in the NW Atlantic, showed a slight southward shift, probably responding to cool water penetrating southward in the Labrador Current. Our approach, supported by high model accuracy, shows its power in detecting species latitudinal shifts and identifying its causes, since the trend of occurrence observed data is influenced by the sampling frequency, which has progressively concentrated to lower latitudes with time. © 2013 © 2013 International Council for

  8. [Effect of climate change on the fisheries conununity pattern in the overwintering ground of open waters of northern East China Sea].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zun-lei; Yuan, Xing-wei; Yang, Lin-lin; Yan, Li-ping; Tian, Yong-jun; Chen, Jia-hua

    2015-03-01

    Data sets of 26 fisheries target species from the fishery-depen-dent and fishery-independent surveys in the overwintering ground of open waters of northern East China Sea (OW-NECS), combined sea surface temperature (SST), were used to examine the links between diversity index, pattern of common variability and climate changes based on the principal component analysis (PCA) and generalized additive model (GAM). The results showed that the shift from a cold regime to a warm regime was detected in SST during the 1970s-2011 with step changes around 1982/ 1983. SST increased during the cold regime and the warm regime before 1998 (warming trend period, 1972-1998), and decreased during the warm regime after 1998 (cooling trend period, 1999-2011). Shannon diversity index was largely dependent on the filefish, which contributed up to 50% of the total production as a single species, with low diversity in the waters of the OW-NECS, during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Excluding the filefish, the diversity index linearly increased and decreased during 1972-1998 and 1999-2011, respectively. The variation pattern generally corresponds with the trend in water temperature, strongly suggesting the effect of the SST on the diversity. The first two components (PC1 and PC2) of PCA for target species, which accounted for 32.43% of the total variance, showed evident decadal variation patterns with a step change during 1992-1999 and inter-annual variability with short-period fluctuation, respectively. It seems that PC1 was associated with large scale climatic change, while PC2 was related to inter-annual oceanographic variability such as ENSO events. Linear fitting results showed winEOF1 had significant effect on PC1, and GAM analysis for PC1 showed that winter EOF1 (winEOF1) and summer EOF2 (sumEOF2) can explain 88.9% of the total variance. Nonlinear effect was also found between PC2 and win EOF1, indicating that the fish community structure, which had predominantly decadal

  9. SAT in shift manager training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lecuyer, F.

    1995-01-01

    EDF has improved the organization of the operation shift teams with the replacement of shift supervisor in shift manager function. The shift manager is not only responsible for tasks associated to plant operation (production), but he is also responsible for safety of these tasks and for management of shift team members. A job analysis of this new job position has been performed in order to design the training programme. It resulted in a 10-month training programme that includes 8 weeks in safety-related topics and 12 weeks in soft-skills related topics. The safety related training courses are mandatory, the other courses are optional courses depending on individual trainee needs. The training also includes the development of management competencies. During the 10 month period, each trainee develops an individual project that is evaluated by NPP manager. As well, as group project is undertaken by the trainees and overseen by a steering committee. The steering committee participates in the evaluation process and provides operational experience feedback to the trainee groups and to the overall programme

  10. Adiabatic perturbation theory for atoms and molecules in the low-frequency regime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martiskainen, Hanna; Moiseyev, Nimrod

    2017-12-14

    There is an increasing interest in the photoinduced dynamics in the low frequency, ω, regime. The multiphoton absorptions by molecules in strong laser fields depend on the polarization of the laser and on the molecular structure. The unique properties of the interaction of atoms and molecules with lasers in the low-frequency regime imply new concepts and directions in strong-field light-matter interactions. Here we represent a perturbational approach for the calculations of the quasi-energy spectrum in the low-frequency regime, which avoids the construction of the Floquet operator with extremely large number of Floquet channels. The zero-order Hamiltonian in our perturbational approach is the adiabatic Hamiltonian where the atoms/molecules are exposed to a dc electric field rather than to ac-field. This is in the spirit of the first step in the Corkum three-step model. The second-order perturbation correction terms are obtained when iℏω∂∂τ serves as a perturbation and τ is a dimensionless variable. The second-order adiabatic perturbation scheme is found to be an excellent approach for calculating the ac-field Floquet solutions in our test case studies of a simple one-dimensional time-periodic model Hamiltonian. It is straightforward to implement the perturbation approach presented here for calculating atomic and molecular energy shifts (positions) due to the interaction with low-frequency ac-fields using high-level electronic structure methods. This is enabled since standard quantum chemistry packages allow the calculations of atomic and molecular energy shifts due to the interaction with dc-fields. In addition to the shift of the energy positions, the energy widths (inverse lifetimes) can be obtained at the same level of theory. These energy shifts are functions of the laser parameters (low frequency, intensity, and polarization).

  11. Influence of Meteorological Regimes on Cloud Microphysics Over Ross Island, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glennon, C.; Wang, S. H.; Scott, R. C.; Bromwich, D. H.; Lubin, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Antarctic provides a sharp contrast in cloud microphysics from the high Arctic, due to orographic lifting and resulting strong vertical motions induced by mountain ranges and other varying terrain on several spatial scales. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) deployed advanced cloud remote sensing equipment to Ross Island, Antarctica, from December 2015 until January 2016. This equipment included scanning and zenith radars operating in the Ka and X bands, a high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL), and a polarized micropulse lidar (MPL). A major AWARE objective is to provide state-of-the-art data for improving cloud microphysical parameterizations in climate models. To further this objective we have organized and classified the local Ross Island meteorology into distinct regimes using k-means clustering on ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We identify synoptic categories producing unique regimes of cloud cover and cloud microphysical properties over Ross Island. Each day of observations can then be associated with a specific meteorological regime, thus assisting modelers with identifying case studies. High-resolution (1 km) weather forecasts from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) are sorted into these categories. AMPS-simulated anomalies of cloud fraction, near-surface air temperature, and vertical velocity at 500-mb are composited and compared with ground-based radar and lidar-derived cloud properties to identify mesoscale meteorological processes driving Antarctic cloud formation. Synoptic lows over the Ross and Amundsen Seas drive anomalously warm conditions at Ross Island by injecting marine air masses inland over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). This results in ice and mixed-phase orographic cloud systems arriving at Ross Island from the south to southeast along the Transantarctic Mountains. In contrast, blocking over the Amundsen Sea region brings classical liquid-dominated mixed-phase and

  12. Definition of water exchange zone between the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea and the effect of winter gale on it

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SONG Jun; GUO Junru; LI Jing; MU Lin; LIU Yulong; WANG Guosong; LI Yan; LI Huan

    2017-01-01

    The marine dynamic environment of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea in the winter of 2006 is simulated by the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) marine numerical model. Using the simulated temperature and salinity, the water exchange zone between the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea is defined through the Spectral Mixture Model (SMM). The influence of winter gales on the water exchange is also discussed. It is found that the Yellow Sea water masses in winter are distributed in a “tongue” shape in the Bohai Strait region, the water exchange zone presents a zonal distribution along the margin of the “tongue”, with a tendency of running from northwest to southeast, and the water exchange is intensified at the tip of the “tongue”. Besides, the coastal area in the northernmost Yellow Sea does not participate in the water exchange between the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea. The result shows that the winter gale events play a role in enhancing the water exchange. It is specifically shown by the facts: the Yellow Sea warm current is enhanced to intrude the Bohai Sea by the gale process; the water exchange zone extends into the Bohai Sea; the water exchange belt in the southern part becomes wider; the mixture zone of river runoff with the Bohai Sea water upon its entry is enlarged and shifts northwards. Within two days after the gale process, the exchange zone retreats toward the Yellow Sea and the exchange zone resulted from the Huanghe River (Yellow River) runoff also shrinks back shoreward.

  13. Contrasting Boundary Scavenging in two Eastern Boundary Current Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, R. F.; Fleisher, M. Q.; Pavia, F. J.; Vivancos, S. M.; Lu, Y.; Zhang, P.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.

    2016-02-01

    We use data from two US GEOTRACES expeditions to compare boundary scavenging intensity in two eastern boundary current systems: the Canary Current off Mauritania and the Humboldt Current off Peru. Boundary scavenging refers to the enhanced removal of trace elements from the ocean by sorption to sinking particles in regions of greater than average particle abundance. Both regimes experience high rates of biological productivity and generation of biogenic particles, with rates of productivity potentially a little greater off Peru, whereas dust fluxes are an order of magnitude greater off NW Africa (see presentation by Vivancos et al., this meeting). Despite greater productivity off Peru, we find greater intensity of scavenging off NW Africa as measured by the residence time of dissolved 230Th integrated from the surface to a depth of 2500 m (10-11 years off NW Africa vs. 15-17 years off Peru). Dissolved 231Pa/230Th ratios off NW Africa (Hayes et al., Deep Sea Res.-II 116 (2015) 29-41) are nearly twice the values observed off Peru. We attribute this difference to the well-known tendency for lithogenic phases (dust) to strongly fractionate in favor of Th uptake during scavenging and removal, leaving the dissolved phase enriched in Pa. This behavior needs to be considered when interpreting sedimentary 231Pa/230Th ratios as a paleo proxy.

  14. The EU Migration Regime and West African Clandestine Migrants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah M. Cross

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the relationship between the EU migration regime and clandestine migration from West Africa to Europe. A review of the development of EU border and immigration policy reveals significant and sustained moves towards securitisation of migrants and the externalisation of border controls to countries of origin and transit. This emphasis on repression limits the scope of cooperation with ‘third countries’ (those outside Europe in co-development, labour mobility, sea patrols and repatriation, which are examined separately as deterrents to uncontrolled emigration. This paper then analyses the motivations and intentions of Senegalese youth around the Cap Vert peninsula. This analysis includes the role of emigration in development and more recently, the impact of human losses and repatriations resulting from the clandestine journey by pirogue (open fishing boat to the Canary Islands. This article argues that in this case, youth are excluded both from labour and asylum policies and instead are managed as a security threat, contradicting the factors driving this journey.

  15. Does the ARFIMA really shift?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Monache, Davide Delle; Grassi, Stefano; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

    Short memory models contaminated by level shifts have long-memory features similar to those associated to processes generated under fractional integration. In this paper, we propose a robust testing procedure, based on an encompassing parametric specification, that allows to disentangle the level...... the highest power compared to other existing tests for spurious long-memory. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach on the daily series of bipower variation and share turnover and on the monthly inflation series of G7 countries....... shift term from the ARFIMA component. The estimation is carried out via a state-space methodology and it leads to a robust estimate of the fractional integration parameter also in presence of level shifts.The Monte Carlo simulations show that this approach produces unbiased estimates of the fractional...

  16. Inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between local sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Haikun; Wu, Liguang; Raga, G. B.

    2018-02-01

    This study documents the inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between the TC frequency (TCF) and the local sea surface temperature (SST) in the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1979-2014. An abrupt shift of the lagged relationship between them is observed to occur in 1998. Before the shift (1979-1997), a moderately positive correlation (0.35) between previous-year local SST and TCF is found, while a significantly negative correlation (- 0.71) is found since the shift (1998-2014). The inter-decadal change of the lagged relationship between TCF and local SST over the WNP is also accompanied by an inter-decadal change in the lagged inter-annual relationship between large-scale factors affecting TCs and local SST over the WNP. During 1998-2014, the previous-year local SST shows a significant negative correlation with the mid-level moisture and a significant positive correlation with the vertical wind shear over the main development region of WNP TC genesis. Almost opposite relationships are seen during 1979-1997, with a smaller magnitude of the correlation coefficients. These changes are consistent with the changes of the lagged inter-annual relationship between upper- and lower-level winds and local SST over the WNP. Analyses further suggests that the inter-decadal shift of the lagged inter-annual relationship between WNP TCF and local SST may be closely linked to the inter-decadal change of inter-annual SST transition over the tropical central-eastern Pacific associated with the climate regime shift in the late 1990s. Details on the underlying physical process need further investigation using observations and simulations.

  17. Thermal refugia against coral bleaching throughout the northern Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Osman, Eslam O.

    2017-10-17

    Tropical reefs have been impacted by thermal anomalies caused by global warming that induced coral bleaching and mortality events globally. However, there have only been very few recordings of bleaching within the Red Sea despite covering a latitudinal range of 15° and consequently it has been considered a region that is less sensitive to thermal anomalies. We therefore examined historical patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and associated anomalies (1982–2012) and compared warming trends with a unique compilation of corresponding coral bleaching records from throughout the region. These data indicated that the northern Red Sea has not experienced mass bleaching despite intensive Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) of >15°C-weeks. Severe bleaching was restricted to the central and southern Red Sea where DHWs have been more frequent, but far less intense (DHWs <4°C-weeks). A similar pattern was observed during the 2015–2016 El Niño event during which time corals in the northern Red Sea did not bleach despite high thermal stress (i.e. DHWs >8°C-weeks), and bleaching was restricted to the central and southern Red Sea despite the lower thermal stress (DHWs < 8°C-weeks). Heat stress assays carried out in the northern (Hurghada) and central (Thuwal) Red Sea on four key reef-building species confirmed different regional thermal susceptibility, and that central Red Sea corals are more sensitive to thermal anomalies as compared to those from the north. Together, our data demonstrate that corals in the northern Red Sea have a much higher heat tolerance than their prevailing temperature regime would suggest. In contrast, corals from the central Red Sea are close to their thermal limits, which closely match the maximum annual water temperatures. The northern Red Sea harbours reef-building corals that live well below their bleaching thresholds and thus we propose that the region represents a thermal refuge of global importance.

  18. Thermal refugia against coral bleaching throughout the northern Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Osman, Eslam O.; Smith, David J.; Ziegler, Maren; Kü rten, Benjamin; Conrad, Constanze; El-Haddad, Khaled M.; Voolstra, Christian R.; Suggett, David J.

    2017-01-01

    Tropical reefs have been impacted by thermal anomalies caused by global warming that induced coral bleaching and mortality events globally. However, there have only been very few recordings of bleaching within the Red Sea despite covering a latitudinal range of 15° and consequently it has been considered a region that is less sensitive to thermal anomalies. We therefore examined historical patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and associated anomalies (1982–2012) and compared warming trends with a unique compilation of corresponding coral bleaching records from throughout the region. These data indicated that the northern Red Sea has not experienced mass bleaching despite intensive Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) of >15°C-weeks. Severe bleaching was restricted to the central and southern Red Sea where DHWs have been more frequent, but far less intense (DHWs <4°C-weeks). A similar pattern was observed during the 2015–2016 El Niño event during which time corals in the northern Red Sea did not bleach despite high thermal stress (i.e. DHWs >8°C-weeks), and bleaching was restricted to the central and southern Red Sea despite the lower thermal stress (DHWs < 8°C-weeks). Heat stress assays carried out in the northern (Hurghada) and central (Thuwal) Red Sea on four key reef-building species confirmed different regional thermal susceptibility, and that central Red Sea corals are more sensitive to thermal anomalies as compared to those from the north. Together, our data demonstrate that corals in the northern Red Sea have a much higher heat tolerance than their prevailing temperature regime would suggest. In contrast, corals from the central Red Sea are close to their thermal limits, which closely match the maximum annual water temperatures. The northern Red Sea harbours reef-building corals that live well below their bleaching thresholds and thus we propose that the region represents a thermal refuge of global importance.

  19. Coordinated Mapping of Sea Ice Deformation Features with Autonomous Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksym, T.; Williams, G. D.; Singh, H.; Weissling, B.; Anderson, J.; Maki, T.; Ackley, S. F.

    2016-12-01

    Decreases in summer sea ice extent in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas has lead to a transition from a largely perennial ice cover, to a seasonal ice cover. This drives shifts in sea ice production, dynamics, ice types, and thickness distribution. To examine how the processes driving ice advance might also impact the morphology of the ice cover, a coordinated ice mapping effort was undertaken during a field campaign in the Beaufort Sea in October, 2015. Here, we present observations of sea ice draft topography from six missions of an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle run under different ice types and deformation features observed during autumn freeze-up. Ice surface features were also mapped during coordinated drone photogrammetric missions over each site. We present preliminary results of a comparison between sea ice surface topography and ice underside morphology for a range of sample ice types, including hummocked multiyear ice, rubble fields, young ice ridges and rafts, and consolidated pancake ice. These data are compared to prior observations of ice morphological features from deformed Antarctic sea ice. Such data will be useful for improving parameterizations of sea ice redistribution during deformation, and for better constraining estimates of airborne or satellite sea ice thickness.

  20. United theory of planet formation (i): Tandem regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebisuzaki, Toshikazu; Imaeda, Yusuke

    2017-07-01

    to be volatile-free because of the high temperature (>1000 K) at this formation site. Such water-free rocky particles may explain the formation of enstatite chondrites, of which the Earth is likely to be primarily composed of. It is also consistent with the model in which the Earth was initially formed as a completely volatile-free planet. The water and other volatile elements came later through the accretion of icy particles by the occasional scatterings in the outer regions. Our new proposed tandem planet formation regime shows that planetesimals are formed at two distinct sites (outer and inner edges of the MRI suppressed region). The former is likely to be the source of outer gas giants and the latter inner rocky planets. The tandem regime also explains the gap in the distribution of solid components (2-4 AU), which is necessary to form a ;solar-system-like; planetary system, which has a relatively small Mars and a very small mass in the main asteroid belt. We found that this tandem regime dose not take place when the vertical magnetic field of the disk five times weaker compared with that we assumed in the present paper, since the outer MRI front shift outward beyond 100 AU. This suggests that yet other regimes exists in our united theory. It may explain the variation observed in exsoplanetary systems by variations in magnetic field and probably angular momentum of the parent molecular cloud.

  1. Paradigm Shifts in Ophthalmic Diagnostics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebag, J; Sadun, Alfredo A; Pierce, Eric A

    2016-08-01

    Future advances in ophthalmology will see a paradigm shift in diagnostics from a focus on dysfunction and disease to better measures of psychophysical function and health. Practical methods to define genotypes will be increasingly important and non-invasive nanotechnologies are needed to detect molecular changes that predate histopathology. This is not a review nor meant to be comprehensive. Specific topics have been selected to illustrate the principles of important paradigm shifts that will influence the future of ophthalmic diagnostics. It is our impression that future evaluation of vision will go beyond visual acuity to assess ocular health in terms of psychophysical function. The definition of disease will incorporate genotype into what has historically been a phenotype-centric discipline. Non-invasive nanotechnologies will enable a paradigm shift from disease detection on a cellular level to a sub-cellular molecular level. Vision can be evaluated beyond visual acuity by measuring contrast sensitivity, color vision, and macular function, as these provide better insights into the impact of aging and disease. Distortions can be quantified and the psychophysical basis of vision can be better evaluated than in the past by designing tests that assess particular macular cell function(s). Advances in our understanding of the genetic basis of eye diseases will enable better characterization of ocular health and disease. Non-invasive nanotechnologies can assess molecular changes in the lens, vitreous, and macula that predate visible pathology. Oxygen metabolism and circulatory physiology are measurable indices of ocular health that can detect variations of physiology and early disease. This overview of paradigm shifts in ophthalmology suggests that the future will see significant improvements in ophthalmic diagnostics. The selected topics illustrate the principles of these paradigm shifts and should serve as a guide to further research and development. Indeed

  2. Morphisms Between Sofic Shift Spaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jan Agentoft

    The lower entropy factor problem asks for necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a factor map from a (mixing) sofic shift space onto another (mixing) sofic subshift of lower entropy. The problem was posed by Mike Boyle in 1984. It remains an open problem, but the present thesis...... gives a re-formulation which can be used to effectively decide the question for a larger class of sofic shifts than all previous results. In addition, the methods are used to make progress on the corresponding embedding problem which asks for necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence...

  3. Shift-Variant Multidimensional Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-05-29

    x,y;u,v) is the system response at (x,y) to an unit impulse applied at (u,v). The presence of additive noise in the preceding input-output model of a...space model developed works very effi- ciently to deblur images affected by 2-D linear shift- varying blurs, its use, in presence of noise needs to be...causal linear shift-variant (LSV) system, whose impulse res- ponse is a K-th order degenerate sequence, a K-th order state-space model was obtained

  4. Explaining (Missing) Regulator Paradigm Shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wigger, Angela; Buch-Hansen, Hubert

    2014-01-01

    The global financial and economic crisis has prompted some scholars to suggest that a fundamental regulatory shift away from neoliberalism will take place – both in general and in the field of EU competition regulation. This paper shows that so far no radical break with the neoliberal type...... regulation after the crisis in the 1970s, the paper argues that the preconditions for a fundamental shift in this issue area are not present this time around. Several reasons account for this: the current crisis has been construed by economic and political elites as a crisis within and not of neoliberal...

  5. Choice of exchange rate regimes for African countries: Fixed or Flexible Exchange rate regimes?

    OpenAIRE

    Simwaka, Kisu

    2010-01-01

    The choice of an appropriate exchange rate regime has been a subject of ongoing debate in international economics. The majority of African countries are small open economies and thus where the choice of the exchange rate regime is an important policy issue. Aside from factors such as interest rates and inflation, the exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of a country’s relative level of economic health. For this reason, exchange rates are among the most watched analyzed and ...

  6. Sea level report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, M.L.

    1979-01-01

    Study of Cenozoic Era sea levels shows a continual lowering of sea level through the Tertiary Period. This overall drop in sea level accompanied the Pleistocene Epoch glacio-eustatic fluctuations. The considerable change of Pleistocene Epoch sea level is most directly attributable to the glacio-eustatic factor, with a time span of 10 5 years and an amplitude or range of approximately 200 m. The lowering of sea level since the end of the Cretaceous Period is attributed to subsidence and mid-ocean ridges. The maximum rate for sea level change is 4 cm/y. At present, mean sea level is rising at about 3 to 4 mm/y. Glacio-eustacy and tectono-eustacy are the parameters for predicting sea level changes in the next 1 my. Glacio-eustatic sea level changes may be projected on the basis of the Milankovitch Theory. Predictions about tectono-eustatic sea level changes, however, involve predictions about future tectonic activity and are therefore somewhat difficult to make. Coastal erosion and sedimentation are affected by changes in sea level. Erosion rates for soft sediments may be as much as 50 m/y. The maximum sedimentation accumulation rate is 20 m/100 y

  7. Rising sea levels and small island states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leatherman, S.P.

    1994-01-01

    A review is given of the problems small island nations face with respect to sea level rise caused by global warming. Many small island nations are very vulnerable to sea level rise. Particularly at risk are coral reef atolls, which are generally quite small, lie within three metres of current sea levels, and have no land at higher elevations to relocate populations and economic activity. Volcanic islands in the Pacific have high ground, but it is largely rugged, high relief and soil-poor. The most vulnerable islands are those that consist entirely of atolls and reef islands, such as Kirabai, Maldives, Tokelau and Tuvalu. Small island states, which by themselves have little power or influence in world affairs, have banded together to form the Strategic Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). This alliance had grown to include 42 states by the time of the 1992 U.N. Earth Summit. Although the greenhouse effect is mainly caused by industrial nations, developing countries will suffer the most from it. Choices of response strategy will depend on environmental, economic and social factors. Most small island nations do not have the resources to fight sea level rise in the way that the Dutch have. Retreat can occur as a gradual process or as catastrophic abandonment. Prohibiting construction close to the water's edge is a good approach. Sea level histories for each island state should be compiled and updated, island geomorphology and settlement patterns should be surveyed to determine risk areas, storm regimes should be determined, and information on coastal impacts of sea level rise should be disseminated to the public

  8. Features of Red Sea Water Masses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kartadikaria, Aditya; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2015-04-01

    Features of Red Sea water mass can be divided into three types but best to be grouped into two different classes that are split at the potential density line σθ=27.4. The surface water (0-50 m) and the intermediate water (50-200 m) have nearly identical types of water mass. They appear as a maxima salinity layer for the water mass that has σθ > 26.0, and as a minimum salinity layer for water mass that has σθ water masses are strongly affected by mixing that is controlled by seasonal variability, fresh water intrusion of the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water (GAIW), and eddies variability. Two types of mixing; isopycnal and diapycnal mixing are part of important physical phenomena that explain the change of water mass in the Red Sea. The isopycnal mixing occurs at the neutral potential density line, connecting the Red Sea with its adjacent channel, the Gulf of Aden. Diapycnal mixing is found as a dominant mixing mode in the surface of the Red Sea Water and mainly due to energetic eddy activity. Density gradients, across which diapycnal mixing occurs, in the Red Sea are mainly due to large variations in salinity. The isolation of an extreme haline water mass below the thermocline contributes to the generation of the latitudinal shift and low diapycnal mixing. This finding further explains the difference of spatial kinetic mixing between the RSW and the Indian Ocean basin.

  9. Features of Red Sea Water Masses

    KAUST Repository

    Kartadikaria, Aditya R.

    2015-04-01

    Features of Red Sea water mass can be divided into three types but best to be grouped into two different classes that are split at the potential density line σθ=27.4. The surface water (0-50 m) and the intermediate water (50-200 m) have nearly identical types of water mass. They appear as a maxima salinity layer for the water mass that has σθ > 26.0, and as a minimum salinity layer for water mass that has σθ < 26.0. These types of water masses are strongly affected by mixing that is controlled by seasonal variability, fresh water intrusion of the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water (GAIW), and eddies variability. Two types of mixing; isopycnal and diapycnal mixing are part of important physical phenomena that explain the change of water mass in the Red Sea. The isopycnal mixing occurs at the neutral potential density line, connecting the Red Sea with its adjacent channel, the Gulf of Aden. Diapycnal mixing is found as a dominant mixing mode in the surface of the Red Sea Water and mainly due to energetic eddy activity. Density gradients, across which diapycnal mixing occurs, in the Red Sea are mainly due to large variations in salinity. The isolation of an extreme haline water mass below the thermocline contributes to the generation of the latitudinal shift and low diapycnal mixing. This finding further explains the difference of spatial kinetic mixing between the RSW and the Indian Ocean basin.

  10. Steady and transient regimes in hydropower plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajic, A.

    2013-12-01

    Hydropower plant that has been in operation for about 30 years has to be reconstructed. They have already installed 12 Kaplan turbines, the largest in the world at that time. The existing CAM relationship was determined based on hydraulic model tests and checked by efficiency on-site tests. It was also tested based on turbine bearing vibrations. In order to discover vibrations and long cracks on stay vanes detailed on-site measurements were performed. Influence of the modification of the trailing edges on the dynamic stresses of the stay vanes is also shown. In order to improve power output transient regimes were analyzed, both experimentally and numerically. Reversible hydropower plant, a pioneer in Europe since it was the first Pump storage power plant constructed with the highest head pump-turbines in the world. Analyses of transient regimes discover some problems with S-shaped characteristics coupled with non-symmetrical penstock.

  11. Steady and transient regimes in hydropower plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gajic, A

    2013-01-01

    Hydropower plant that has been in operation for about 30 years has to be reconstructed. They have already installed 12 Kaplan turbines, the largest in the world at that time. The existing CAM relationship was determined based on hydraulic model tests and checked by efficiency on-site tests. It was also tested based on turbine bearing vibrations. In order to discover vibrations and long cracks on stay vanes detailed on-site measurements were performed. Influence of the modification of the trailing edges on the dynamic stresses of the stay vanes is also shown. In order to improve power output transient regimes were analyzed, both experimentally and numerically. Reversible hydropower plant, a pioneer in Europe since it was the first Pump storage power plant constructed with the highest head pump-turbines in the world. Analyses of transient regimes discover some problems with S-shaped characteristics coupled with non-symmetrical penstock

  12. Recent Activities on Global Nuclear Safety Regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Kun-Woo; Park, Jeong-Seop; Kim, Do-Hyoung

    2006-01-01

    Recently, rapid progress on the globalization of the nuclear safety issues is being made in IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) and its member states. With the globalization, the need for international cooperation among international bodies and member states continues to grow for resolving these universal nuclear safety issues. Furthermore, the importance of strengthening the global nuclear safety regime is emphasized through various means, such as efforts in application of IAEA safety standards to all nuclear installations in the world and in strengthening the code of conduct and the convention on nuclear safety. In this regards, it is important for us to keep up with the activities related with the global nuclear safety regime as an IAEA member state and a leading country in nuclear safety regulation

  13. Regimes de espaço

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Landowski

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Space Regimes - Based on a general model of interaction, the present analysis attempts to account for the diversity of the ways space may be apprehended in lived experience. It leads to the definition of four configurations that correspond to as many regimes of relation with the environing world. The conventional space of the circulation of values takes the archetypical shape of the net (incarnated today by Internet. The operational space is that of our dealing with objects within a material environment seen as a tissue of stable and intelligible relations. The experienced space of bodies’ movement, to which one may give as an emblem the spiral, expresses the dynamics of sensitive relationships between the self and the other. The existential space is that of our presence in a universe without boundaries, which no one can properly represent oneself but that nonetheless haunts art and thought: its figure is the abyss.

  14. Searching for resilience: addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Rupert; Spies, Thomas A.; Peterson, David L.; Stephens, Scott L.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.

    2016-01-01

    Summary 1. The provisioning of ecosystem services to society is increasingly under pressure from global change. Changing disturbance regimes are of particular concern in this context due to their high potential impact on ecosystem structure, function and composition. Resilience-based stewardship is advocated to address these changes in ecosystem management, but its operational implementation has remained challenging. 2. We review observed and expected changes in disturbance regimes and their potential impacts on provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting ecosystem services, concentrating on temperate and boreal forests. Subsequently, we focus on resilience as a powerful concept to quantify and address these changes and their impacts, and present an approach towards its operational application using established methods from disturbance ecology. 3. We suggest using the range of variability concept – characterizing and bounding the long-term behaviour of ecosystems – to locate and delineate the basins of attraction of a system. System recovery in relation to its range of variability can be used to measure resilience of ecosystems, allowing inferences on both engineering resilience (recovery rate) and monitoring for regime shifts (directionality of recovery trajectory). 4. It is important to consider the dynamic nature of these properties in ecosystem analysis and management decision-making, as both disturbance processes and mechanisms of resilience will be subject to changes in the future. Furthermore, because ecosystem services are at the interface between natural and human systems, the social dimension of resilience (social adaptive capacity and range of variability) requires consideration in responding to changing disturbance regimes in forests. 5. Synthesis and applications. Based on examples from temperate and boreal forests we synthesize principles and pathways for fostering resilience to changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. We

  15. Supersonic free jet, molecular free regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanna, G.; Tomassetti, G.

    1999-01-01

    The structure of the free jet emitted by a converging nozzle as obtained by the method of characteristics by Ashkenas and Sherman is described in details. In particular the dependence of the field variable by the distance from the nozzle is given. The transition from continuum to molecular free regime is then considered and the sudden freeze approximation is introduced. The processing of monoatomic and polyatomic gasses is also considered [it

  16. Dynamic Regime of Ignition of Solid Propellant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zolotorev Nikolay

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a dynamic regime of exposure of the radiant flux on the sample of gun-cotton. Obtained time the ignition of gun-cotton in the heating conditions of increasing heat flux in the range from 0.2 W/cm2 to 22 W/cm2. A comparison of the delay times of the ignition when heated variable and constant heat flux.

  17. Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability

    OpenAIRE

    Francesco Caselli; Andrea Tesei

    2011-01-01

    We study theoretically and empirically whether natural resource windfalls affect political regimes. We document the following regularities. Natural resource windfalls have no effect on the political system when they occur in democracies. However, windfalls have significant political consequences in autocracies. In particular, when an autocratic country receives a positive shock to its flow of resource rents it responds by becoming even more autocratic. Furthermore, there is heterogeneity in t...

  18. Deuteron structure in the deep inelastic regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia Canal, C.A.; Tarutina, T. [Universidad Nacional de La Plata, IFLP/CONICET y Departamento de Fisica, La Plata (Argentina); Vento, V. [Universidad de Valencia-CSIC, Departamento de Fisica Teorica-IFIC, Burjassot (Valencia) (Spain)

    2017-06-15

    We study nuclear effects in the deuteron in the deep inelastic regime using the newest available data. We put special emphasis on their Q{sup 2} dependence. The study is carried out using a scheme which parameterizes, in a simple manner, these effects by changing the proton and neutron stucture functions in medium. The result of our analysis is compared with other recent proposals. We conclude that precise EMC ratios cannot be obtained without considering the nuclear effects in the deuteron. (orig.)

  19. Proliferation Control Regimes: Background and Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-25

    States has signed such agreements with Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Belize, Croatia, Cyprus, Liberia, Malta, the Marshall Islands , Mongolia...Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC), and the Australia Group. The informal Australia Group...biological agents or toxins “of types and in quantities that have no justification for peaceful purposes.” The missile nonproliferation regime is founded not

  20. A regime legitimacy explanation of African peacekeeping

    OpenAIRE

    Ross, Matthew.

    2011-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. The American military needs to understand what incentivizes some African nations to participate in peacekeeping in order to strengthen the incentive structure so that high levels of peacekeeping will continue. The main argument advanced in this thesis is that regimes that are attempting to increase their structural legitimacy are more likely to volunteer for peacekeeping missions to gain international political legitimacy, as well as ...