Recent surface cooling in the Yellow and East China Seas and the associated North Pacific climate regime shift

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Yong Sun; Jang, Chan Joo; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2018-03-01

The Yellow and East China Seas (YECS) are widely believed to have experienced robust, basin-scale warming over the last few decades. However, the warming reached a peak in the late 1990s, followed by a significant cooling trend. In this study, we investigated the characteristics of this low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variance and its dynamic relationship with large-scale climate variability through cyclostationary orthogonal function analysis for the 1982-2014 period. Both regressed surface winds on the primary mode of the YECS SST and trends in air-sea heat fluxes demonstrate that the intensification of the northerly winds in winter contribute largely to the recent cooling trend by increasing heat loss to the atmosphere. As a localized oceanic response to these winds, the upwind flow seems to bring warm waters and partially counteracts the basin-scale cooling, thus contributing to a weakening of the cooling trend along the central trough of the Yellow Sea. In the context of the large-scale climate variabilities, a strong relationship between the YECS SST variability and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) became weak considerably during the recent cooling period after the late 1990s as the PDO signals appeared to be confined within the eastern basin of the North Pacific in association with the regime shift. In addition to this decoupling of the YECS SST from the PDO, the intensifying Siberian High pressure system likely caused the enhanced northerly winds, leading to the recent cooling trend. These findings highlight relative roles of the PDO and the Siberian High in shaping the YECS SST variance through the changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and attendant oceanic advection.

Variance as a Leading Indicator of Regime Shift in Ecosystem Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William A. Brock

2006-12-01

Full Text Available Many environmental conflicts involve pollutants such as greenhouse gas emissions that are dispersed through space and cause losses of ecosystem services. As pollutant emissions rise in one place, a spatial cascade of declining ecosystem services can spread across a larger landscape because of the dispersion of the pollutant. This paper considers the problem of anticipating such spatial regime shifts by monitoring time series of the pollutant or associated ecosystem services. Using such data, it is possible to construct indicators that rise sharply in advance of regime shifts. Specifically, the maximum eigenvalue of the variance-covariance matrix of the multivariate time series of pollutants and ecosystem services rises prior to the regime shift. No specific knowledge of the mechanisms underlying the regime shift is needed to construct the indicator. Such leading indicators of regime shifts could provide useful signals to management agencies or to investors in ecosystem service markets.

Early signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Pal, Mainak; Pal, Amit Kumar; Ghosh, Sayantari; Bose, Indrani

2013-06-01

Recently, a large number of studies have been carried out on the early signatures of sudden regime shifts in systems as diverse as ecosystems, financial markets, population biology and complex diseases. The signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics are less systematically investigated. In this paper, we consider sudden regime shifts in the gene expression dynamics described by a fold-bifurcation model involving bistability and hysteresis. We consider two alternative models, models 1 and 2, of competence development in the bacterial population B. subtilis and determine some early signatures of the regime shifts between competence and noncompetence. We use both deterministic and stochastic formalisms for the purpose of our study. The early signatures studied include the critical slowing down as a transition point is approached, rising variance and the lag-1 autocorrelation function, skewness and a ratio of two mean first passage times. Some of the signatures could provide the experimental basis for distinguishing between bistability and excitability as the correct mechanism for the development of competence.

Early signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pal, Mainak; Pal, Amit Kumar; Ghosh, Sayantari; Bose, Indrani

2013-01-01

Recently, a large number of studies have been carried out on the early signatures of sudden regime shifts in systems as diverse as ecosystems, financial markets, population biology and complex diseases. The signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics are less systematically investigated. In this paper, we consider sudden regime shifts in the gene expression dynamics described by a fold-bifurcation model involving bistability and hysteresis. We consider two alternative models, models 1 and 2, of competence development in the bacterial population B. subtilis and determine some early signatures of the regime shifts between competence and noncompetence. We use both deterministic and stochastic formalisms for the purpose of our study. The early signatures studied include the critical slowing down as a transition point is approached, rising variance and the lag-1 autocorrelation function, skewness and a ratio of two mean first passage times. Some of the signatures could provide the experimental basis for distinguishing between bistability and excitability as the correct mechanism for the development of competence. (paper)

Interacting Regional-Scale Regime Shifts for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leadley, P.; Proenca, V.; Fernandez-Manjarres, J.; Pereira, H.M.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Biggs, R.; Bruley, E.; Cheung, W.; Cooper, D.; Figueiredo, J.; Gilman, E.; Guenette, S.; Hurtt, G.; Mbow, C.; Oberdorff, T.; Revenga, C.; Scharlemann, J.P.W.; Scholes, R.; Smith, M.S.; Sumaila, U.R.; Walpole, M.

2014-01-01

Current trajectories of global change may lead to regime shifts at regional scales, driving coupled human-environment systems to highly degraded states in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. For business-as-usual socioeconomic development pathways, regime shifts are

The legacy of large regime shifts in shallow lakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramstack Hobbs, Joy M; Hobbs, William O; Edlund, Mark B; Zimmer, Kyle D; Theissen, Kevin M; Hoidal, Natalie; Domine, Leah M; Hanson, Mark A; Herwig, Brian R; Cotner, James B

2016-12-01

Ecological shifts in shallow lakes from clear-water macrophyte-dominated to turbid-water phytoplankton-dominated are generally thought of as rapid short-term transitions. Diatom remains in sediment records from shallow lakes in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America provide new evidence that the long-term ecological stability of these lakes is defined by the legacy of large regime shifts. We examine the modern and historical stability of 11 shallow lakes. Currently, four of the lakes are in a clear-water state, three are consistently turbid-water, and four have been observed to change state from year to year (transitional). Lake sediment records spanning the past 150-200 yr suggest that (1) the diatom assemblage is characteristic of either clear or turbid lakes, (2) prior to significant landscape alteration, all of the lakes existed in a regime of a stable clear-water state, (3) lakes that are currently classified as turbid or transitional have experienced one strong regime shift over the past 150-200 yr and have since remained in a regime where turbid-water predominates, and (4) top-down impacts to the lake food-web from fish introductions appear to be the dominant driver of strong regime shifts and not increased nutrient availability. Based on our findings we demonstrate a method that could be used by lake managers to identify lakes that have an ecological history close to the clear-turbid regime threshold; such lakes might more easily be returned to a clear-water state through biomanipulation. The unfortunate reality is that many of these lakes are now part of a managed landscape and will likely require continued intervention. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Land-use regime shifts: an analytical framework and agenda for future land-use research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Navin Ramankutty

2016-06-01

Full Text Available A key research frontier in global change research lies in understanding processes of land change to inform predictive models of future land states. We believe that significant advances in the field are hampered by limited attention being paid to critical points of change termed land-use regime shifts. We present an analytical framework for understanding land-use regime shifts. We survey historical events of land change and perform in-depth case studies of soy and shrimp development in Latin America to demonstrate the role of preconditions, triggers, and self-reinforcing processes in driving land-use regime shifts. Whereas the land-use literature demonstrates a good understanding of within-regime dynamics, our understanding of the drivers of land-use regime shifts is limited to ex post facto explications. Theoretical and empirical advances are needed to better understand the dynamics and implications of land-use regime shifts. We draw insights from the regime-shifts literature to propose a research agenda for studying land change.

Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Groeger, Joachim P.

2012-01-01

methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face...

Beta Risk and Regime Shift in Market Volatility

OpenAIRE

Don U.A. Galagedera; Roland G. Shami

2004-01-01

In this paper, we relate security returns in the thirty securities in the Dow Jones index to regime shifts in the market portfolio (S&P500) volatility. We model market volatility as a multiple-state Markov switching process of order one and estimate non-diversifiable security risk (beta) in the different market volatility regimes. We test the significance of the premium of the beta risk associated with the different market regimes and find evidence of a relationship between security return an...

Regime Shifts and Resilience in Fisheries Management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Li, Chuan Zhong; Villasante, Sebastian; Zhu, Xueqin

2016-01-01

We investigate the role of potential regime shifts in Argentinean hake fishery and the inter-linkage between ecological and economic resilience. We develop a theoretical model incorporated with the hazard function for resource management under alternative conditions, and derive the corrective

Catastrophic regime shifts in model ecological communities are true phase transitions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Capitán, J A; Cuesta, J A

2010-01-01

Ecosystems often undergo abrupt regime shifts in response to gradual external changes. These shifts are theoretically understood as a regime switch between alternative stable states of the ecosystem dynamical response to smooth changes in external conditions. Usual models introduce nonlinearities in the macroscopic dynamics of the ecosystem that lead to different stable attractors among which the shift takes place. Here we propose an alternative explanation of catastrophic regime shifts based on a recent model that pictures ecological communities as systems in continuous fluctuation, according to certain transition probabilities, between different micro-states in the phase space of viable communities. We introduce a spontaneous extinction rate that accounts for gradual changes in external conditions, and upon variations on this control parameter the system undergoes a regime shift with similar features to those previously reported. Under our microscopic viewpoint we recover the main results obtained in previous theoretical and empirical work (anomalous variance, hysteresis cycles, trophic cascades). The model predicts a gradual loss of species in trophic levels from bottom to top near the transition. But more importantly, the spectral analysis of the transition probability matrix allows us to rigorously establish that we are observing the fingerprints, in a finite size system, of a true phase transition driven by background extinctions

Imprint of past environmental regimes on structure and succession of a deep-sea hydrothermal vent community.

Science.gov (United States)

Mullineaux, Lauren S; Micheli, Fiorenza; Peterson, Charles H; Lenihan, Hunter S; Markus, Nilauro

2009-08-01

Dramatic perturbations of ecological communities through rapid shifts in environmental regime do not always result in complete mortality of residents. Instead, legacy individuals may remain and influence the succession and composition of subsequent communities. We used a reciprocal transplant experiment to investigate whether a legacy effect is detectable in communities experiencing an abrupt increase or decrease in hydrothermal fluid flux at deep-sea vents. Vent habitats are characterized by strong gradients in productivity and physico-chemical stressors, both of which tend to increase with increasing vent fluid flux. In our experiments, many species survived transplantation from cool (water temperatures theory developed in the rocky intertidal that predicts the predominance of physical control at the high-stress end of an environmental gradient. Prediction of successional transitions in vents and other habitats experiencing regime shifts in which remnant species may survive must take into account the possible influence of historical effects.

Anticipating regime shifts in gene expression: The case of an autoactivating positive feedback loop

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Yogita; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Gupta, A. K.

2016-03-01

Considerable evidence suggests that anticipating sudden shifts from one state to another in bistable dynamical systems is a challenging task; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and complex diseases. In this paper, we investigate the effects of additive, multiplicative, and cross-correlated stochastic perturbations on determining the regime shifts in a bistable gene regulatory system, which gives rise to two distinct states of low and high concentrations of protein. We obtain the stationary probability density and mean first-passage time of the system. We show that increasing the additive (multiplicative) noise intensity induces a regime shift from a low (high) to a high (low) protein concentration state. However, an increase in the cross-correlation intensity always induces regime shifts from a high to a low protein concentration state. For both bifurcation-induced (often called the tipping point) and noise-induced (called stochastic switching) regime shifts, we further explore the robustness of recently developed critical-down-based early warning signal (EWS) indicators (e.g., rising variance and lag-1 autocorrelation) on our simulated time-series data. We identify that using EWS indicators, prediction of an impending bifurcation-induced regime shift is relatively easier than that of a noise-induced regime shift in the considered system. Moreover, the success of EWS indicators also strongly depends upon the nature of the noise.

Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ...

Science.gov (United States)

Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana,USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts. Communities of organisms from mammals to microorganisms have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at discrete spatial and temporal scales within ecosystems. Here, a paleoecological record of diatom community change is use

SeaQuest/E906 Shift Alarm System

Science.gov (United States)

Kitts, Noah

2014-09-01

SeaQuest, Fermilab E906, is a fixed target experiment that measures the Drell-Yan cross-section ratio of proton-proton to proton-deuterium collisions in order to extract the sea anti-quark structure of the proton. SeaQuest will extend the measurements made by E866/NuSea with greater precision at higher Bjorken-x. The continuously running experiment is always being monitored. Those on shift must keep track of all of the detector readouts in order to make sure the experiment is running correctly. As an experiment that is still in its early stages of running, an alarm system for people on shift is being created to provide warnings, such as a plot showing a detector's performance is sufficiently different to need attention. This plan involves python scripts that track live data. When the data shows a problem within the experiment, a corresponding alarm ID is sent to the MySQL database which then sets off an alarm. These alarms, which will alert the person on shift through both an audible and visual response, are important for ensuring that issues do not go unnoticed, and to help make sure the experiment is recording good data.

Regime shifts under forcing of non-stationary attractors: Conceptual model and case studies in hydrologic systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jeryang; Rao, P Suresh C

2014-11-15

We present here a conceptual model and analysis of complex systems using hypothetical cases of regime shifts resulting from temporal non-stationarity in attractor strengths, and then present selected published cases to illustrate such regime shifts in hydrologic systems (shallow aquatic ecosystems; water table shifts; soil salinization). Complex systems are dynamic and can exist in two or more stable states (or regimes). Temporal variations in state variables occur in response to fluctuations in external forcing, which are modulated by interactions among internal processes. Combined effects of external forcing and non-stationary strengths of alternative attractors can lead to shifts from original to alternate regimes. In systems with bi-stable states, when the strengths of two competing attractors are constant in time, or are non-stationary but change in a linear fashion, regime shifts are found to be temporally stationary and only controlled by the characteristics of the external forcing. However, when attractor strengths change in time non-linearly or vary stochastically, regime shifts in complex systems are characterized by non-stationary probability density functions (pdfs). We briefly discuss implications and challenges to prediction and management of hydrologic complex systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs.

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, Nicholas A J; Jennings, Simon; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mouillot, David; Wilson, Shaun K

2015-02-05

Climate-induced coral bleaching is among the greatest current threats to coral reefs, causing widespread loss of live coral cover. Conditions under which reefs bounce back from bleaching events or shift from coral to algal dominance are unknown, making it difficult to predict and plan for differing reef responses under climate change. Here we document and predict long-term reef responses to a major climate-induced coral bleaching event that caused unprecedented region-wide mortality of Indo-Pacific corals. Following loss of >90% live coral cover, 12 of 21 reefs recovered towards pre-disturbance live coral states, while nine reefs underwent regime shifts to fleshy macroalgae. Functional diversity of associated reef fish communities shifted substantially following bleaching, returning towards pre-disturbance structure on recovering reefs, while becoming progressively altered on regime shifting reefs. We identified threshold values for a range of factors that accurately predicted ecosystem response to the bleaching event. Recovery was favoured when reefs were structurally complex and in deeper water, when density of juvenile corals and herbivorous fishes was relatively high and when nutrient loads were low. Whether reefs were inside no-take marine reserves had no bearing on ecosystem trajectory. Although conditions governing regime shift or recovery dynamics were diverse, pre-disturbance quantification of simple factors such as structural complexity and water depth accurately predicted ecosystem trajectories. These findings foreshadow the likely divergent but predictable outcomes for reef ecosystems in response to climate change, thus guiding improved management and adaptation.

Impacts of extensive driftnet fishery and late 1990s climate regime shift on dominant epipelagic nekton in the Transition Region and Subtropical Frontal Zone: Implications for fishery management

Science.gov (United States)

Ichii, T.; Nishikawa, H.; Igarashi, H.; Okamura, H.; Mahapatra, K.; Sakai, M.; Wakabayashi, T.; Inagake, D.; Okada, Y.

2017-01-01

We investigated the impacts of extensive anthropogenic (high seas driftnet squid fishery) and natural (late 1990s major climate regime shift) events on dominant epipelagic fish, squid, and shark in the central North Pacific Transition Region based on a driftnet survey covering the years 1979-2006. Fishing was conducted by Japan, Korea and Taiwan to target neon flying squid in the period 1979-1992, resulting in a decline in stocks of the target species and non-target species (Pacific pomfret and juvenile blue shark), which were by-catch of this fishery. The catch was found to be at the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) level for neon flying squid, the underfished level for juvenile blue shark, but the overfished level for Pacific pomfret. The MSY of Pacific pomfret indicated that this species is more susceptible to exploitation than previously considered. In response to the late 1990s regime shift, neon flying squid and Pacific saury showed low stock levels in 1999-2002 and 1998-2002, respectively, as a result of reduced productivity in their nursery grounds (the Subtropical Frontal Zone and Kuroshio Extension Bifurcation Region, respectively). On the other hand, Pacific pomfret showed no decreasing trend in stock during the low- and intermediate-productivity regimes because of the high productivity of their main spawning/nursery ground (Transition Zone Chlorophyll Front), which was independent of the regime shifts. Thus, squid and saury appear to be more susceptible to the regime shift than pomfret. We discuss the implications for stock management of the species-specific responses to the fishery and the regime shift.

Critical slowing down associated with regime shifts in the US housing market

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, James Peng Lung; Cheong, Siew Siew Ann

2014-02-01

Complex systems are described by a large number of variables with strong and nonlinear interactions. Such systems frequently undergo regime shifts. Combining insights from bifurcation theory in nonlinear dynamics and the theory of critical transitions in statistical physics, we know that critical slowing down and critical fluctuations occur close to such regime shifts. In this paper, we show how universal precursors expected from such critical transitions can be used to forecast regime shifts in the US housing market. In the housing permit, volume of homes sold and percentage of homes sold for gain data, we detected strong early warning signals associated with a sequence of coupled regime shifts, starting from a Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and ending with the Subprime Crisis in 2007-2008. Weaker signals of critical slowing down were also detected in the US housing market data during the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2000-2001 Technology Bubble Crisis. Backed by various macroeconomic data, we propose a scenario whereby hot money flowing back into the US during the Asian Financial Crisis fueled the Technology Bubble. When the Technology Bubble collapsed in 2000-2001, the hot money then flowed into the US housing market, triggering the Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and an ensuing sequence of transitions. We showed how this sequence of couple transitions unfolded in space and in time over the whole of US.

The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004–2008 US Housing Market Bubble

Science.gov (United States)

Cheong, Siew Ann

2016-01-01

The Subprime Bubble preceding the Subprime Crisis of 2008 was fueled by risky lending practices, manifesting in the form of a large abrupt increase in the proportion of subprime mortgages issued in the US. This event also coincided with critical slowing down signals associated with instability, which served as evidence of a regime shift or phase transition in the US housing market. Here, we show that the US housing market underwent a regime shift between alternate stable states consistent with the observed critical slowing down signals. We modeled this regime shift on a universal transition path and validated the model by estimating when the bubble burst. Additionally, this model reveals loose monetary policy to be a plausible cause of the phase transition, implying that the bubble might have been deflatable by a timely tightening of monetary policy. PMID:27583633

Dynamic two state stochastic models for ecological regime shifts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Carstensen, Niels Jacob; Madsen, Henrik

2009-01-01

of the model illustrates that hysteresis effect and regime shifts can be obtained for a limited range of parameter values only. The effect of multiplicative noise components entering at different levels of the model is presented and discussed. Including noise leads to very different results on the stability...

Covariance Between Arctic Sea Ice and Clouds Within Atmospheric State Regimes at the Satellite Footprint Level

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Patrick C.; Kato, Seiji; Xu, Kuan-Man; Cai, Ming

2015-01-01

Understanding the cloud response to sea ice change is necessary for modeling Arctic climate. Previous work has primarily addressed this problem from the interannual variability perspective. This paper provides a refined perspective of sea ice-cloud relationship in the Arctic using a satellite footprint-level quantification of the covariance between sea ice and Arctic low cloud properties from NASA A-Train active remote sensing data. The covariances between Arctic low cloud properties and sea ice concentration are quantified by first partitioning each footprint into four atmospheric regimes defined using thresholds of lower tropospheric stability and mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Significant regional variability in the cloud properties is found within the atmospheric regimes indicating that the regimes do not completely account for the influence of meteorology. Regional anomalies are used to account for the remaining meteorological influence on clouds. After accounting for meteorological regime and regional influences, a statistically significant but weak covariance between cloud properties and sea ice is found in each season for at least one atmospheric regime. Smaller average cloud fraction and liquid water are found within footprints with more sea ice. The largest-magnitude cloud-sea ice covariance occurs between 500m and 1.2 km when the lower tropospheric stability is between 16 and 24 K. The covariance between low cloud properties and sea ice is found to be largest in fall and is accompanied by significant changes in boundary layer temperature structure where larger average near-surface static stability is found at larger sea ice concentrations.

Covariance between Arctic sea ice and clouds within atmospheric state regimes at the satellite footprint level.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Patrick C; Kato, Seiji; Xu, Kuan-Man; Cai, Ming

2015-12-27

Understanding the cloud response to sea ice change is necessary for modeling Arctic climate. Previous work has primarily addressed this problem from the interannual variability perspective. This paper provides a refined perspective of sea ice-cloud relationship in the Arctic using a satellite footprint-level quantification of the covariance between sea ice and Arctic low cloud properties from NASA A-Train active remote sensing data. The covariances between Arctic low cloud properties and sea ice concentration are quantified by first partitioning each footprint into four atmospheric regimes defined using thresholds of lower tropospheric stability and midtropospheric vertical velocity. Significant regional variability in the cloud properties is found within the atmospheric regimes indicating that the regimes do not completely account for the influence of meteorology. Regional anomalies are used to account for the remaining meteorological influence on clouds. After accounting for meteorological regime and regional influences, a statistically significant but weak covariance between cloud properties and sea ice is found in each season for at least one atmospheric regime. Smaller average cloud fraction and liquid water are found within footprints with more sea ice. The largest-magnitude cloud-sea ice covariance occurs between 500 m and 1.2 km when the lower tropospheric stability is between 16 and 24 K. The covariance between low cloud properties and sea ice is found to be largest in fall and is accompanied by significant changes in boundary layer temperature structure where larger average near-surface static stability is found at larger sea ice concentrations.

Regime Shift Identification of Runoff and Sediment Loads in the Yellow River Basin, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Wang

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Runoff and sediment loads have exhibited significant changes over the past six decades in the Yellow River Basin, China. The current study evaluates the changing trends and regime shifts in runoff and sediment loads at both the annual and monthly time scales. The associated spatial and temporal variations are analyzed by a sequential t-test analysis of the regime shifts (STARS approach and the “breaks for additive seasonal and trend” (BFAST model using hydrological data at eight stations from the 1950s to 2011. Both runoff and sediment loads exhibit significant declines (p < 0.05, except in the upper reaches of the river near the Tangnaihai station. The regime shifts detected by the STARS approach are not completely consistent with the results from the BFAST method. In most cases, the regime shifts occurred in 1969 and 1986, due to the construction of large reservoirs. Climate change and other human activities, such as large-scale soil and water conservation measures, can result in abrupt changes in hydrological series at some stations. The trapping effects of reservoirs not only cause regime shifts of runoff and sediment loads, but also adjust their inter-annual and seasonal distributions. Various soil and water conservation measures are responsible for the significant reduction in runoff and sediment loads in the mid-lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin. In addition, water withdrawals from both river runoff and ground water play a critical role in the changing trends in runoff and indirectly alter the sediment loads. The findings provide a good reference for the effective promotion of climate change adaptation, water resources planning and river basin management.

Motional frequency shifts of trapped ions in the Lamb-Dicke regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lizuain, I.; Muga, J. G.; Eschner, J.

2007-01-01

First order Doppler effects are usually ignored in laser driven trapped ions when the recoil frequency is much smaller than the trapping frequency (Lamb-Dicke regime). This means that the central, carrier excitation band is supposed to be unaffected by vibronic transitions in which the vibrational number changes. While this is strictly true in the Lamb-Dicke limit (infinitely tight confinement), the vibronic transitions do play a role in the Lamb-Dicke regime. In this paper we quantify the asymptotic behavior of their effect with respect to the Lamb-Dicke parameter. In particular, we give analytical expressions for the frequency shift, 'pulling' or 'pushing', produced in the carrier absorption band by the vibronic transitions both for Rabi and Ramsey schemes. This shift is shown to be independent of the initial vibrational state

Modelling regime shifts in the southern Benguela: a frame-based ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Modelling regime shifts in the southern Benguela: a frame-based approach. MD Smith, A Jarre. Abstract. This study explores the usefulness of a frame-based modelling approach in the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem, with four frames describing observed small pelagic fish dominance patterns. We modelled the ...

An algorithm for engineering regime shifts in one-dimensional dynamical systems

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, James P. L.

2018-01-01

Regime shifts are discontinuous transitions between stable attractors hosting a system. They can occur as a result of a loss of stability in an attractor as a bifurcation is approached. In this work, we consider one-dimensional dynamical systems where attractors are stable equilibrium points. Relying on critical slowing down signals related to the stability of an equilibrium point, we present an algorithm for engineering regime shifts such that a system may escape an undesirable attractor into a desirable one. We test the algorithm on synthetic data from a one-dimensional dynamical system with a multitude of stable equilibrium points and also on a model of the population dynamics of spruce budworms in a forest. The algorithm and other ideas discussed here contribute to an important part of the literature on exercising greater control over the sometimes unpredictable nature of nonlinear systems.

Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

Science.gov (United States)

Jucker Riva, Matteo; Schwilch, Gudrun; Liniger, Hanspeter

2015-04-01

Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users' knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio

Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Marwan, N.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

2015-05-01

The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia

Science.gov (United States)

Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne De; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A.; Niklasson, Mats

2016-03-01

Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone.

Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia

Science.gov (United States)

Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne de; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A.; Niklasson, Mats

2016-01-01

Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone. PMID:26940995

Shifting balance of thermokarst lake ice regimes across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Lu, Zong; Whitman, Matthew S.

2012-01-01

The balance of thermokarst lakes with bedfast- and floating-ice regimes across Arctic lowlands regulates heat storage, permafrost thaw, winter-water supply, and over-wintering aquatic habitat. Using a time-series of late-winter synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to distinguish lake ice regimes in two regions of the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska from 2003–2011, we found that 18% of the lakes had intermittent ice regimes, varying between bedfast-ice and floating-ice conditions. Comparing this dataset with a radar-based lake classification from 1980 showed that 16% of the bedfast-ice lakes had shifted to floating-ice regimes. A simulated lake ice thinning trend of 1.5 cm/yr since 1978 is believed to be the primary factor driving this form of lake change. The most profound impacts of this regime shift in Arctic lakes may be an increase in the landscape-scale thermal offset created by additional lake heat storage and its role in talik development in otherwise continuous permafrost as well as increases in over-winter aquatic habitat and winter-water supply.

Regime shifts in demersal assemblages of the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem: a comparative assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkman, Stephen P.; Yemane, Dawit; Atkinson, Lara J.

2015-01-01

Using long‐term survey data, changes in demersal faunal communities in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem were analysed at community and population levels to provide a comparative overview of the occurrence and timing of regime shifts. For South Africa, the timing of a community‐level sh......Using long‐term survey data, changes in demersal faunal communities in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem were analysed at community and population levels to provide a comparative overview of the occurrence and timing of regime shifts. For South Africa, the timing of a community...

Property rights, institutional regime shifts and the provision of freshwater ecosystem services on the Pongola River floodplain, South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bimo Abraham Nkhata

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a property rights perspective to interpret institutional regime shifts in the provision of freshwater ecosystem services. Institutional regime shifts are conceived as persistent changes in the structure and function of a system. Property rights are viewed as an important component of institutional regimes. The paper draws on a case study of flow regulation on the Pongolo Floodplain in South Africa to illustrate the central role of property rights in mediating institutional regime shifts. The case study illustrates that there are many combinations of property rights that underpin institutional regime shifts in the provision of freshwater ecosystem services. It provides useful insights into the consequences of failing to recognize, establish and enforce bundles of rights. A major thrust of the case study is that the nature and context of property rights are important in determining the long-term provision of these services. By examining the configurations of property rights that have governed the Pongola River floodplain over the years, the paper demonstrates the importance of explicitly defining and categorizing the range of rights.

Hysteresis, regime shifts, and non-stationarity in aquifer recharge-storage-discharge systems

Science.gov (United States)

Klammler, Harald; Jawitz, James; Annable, Michael; Hatfield, Kirk; Rao, Suresh

2016-04-01

Based on physical principles and geological information we develop a parsimonious aquifer model for Silver Springs, one of the largest karst springs in Florida. The model structure is linear and time-invariant with recharge, aquifer head (storage) and spring discharge as dynamic variables at the springshed (landscape) scale. Aquifer recharge is the hydrological driver with trends over a range of time scales from seasonal to multi-decadal. The freshwater-saltwater interaction is considered as a dynamic storage mechanism. Model results and observed time series show that aquifer storage causes significant rate-dependent hysteretic behavior between aquifer recharge and discharge. This leads to variable discharge per unit recharge over time scales up to decades, which may be interpreted as a gradual and cyclic regime shift in the aquifer drainage behavior. Based on field observations, we further amend the aquifer model by assuming vegetation growth in the spring run to be inversely proportional to stream velocity and to hinder stream flow. This simple modification introduces non-linearity into the dynamic system, for which we investigate the occurrence of rate-independent hysteresis and of different possible steady states with respective regime shifts between them. Results may contribute towards explaining observed non-stationary behavior potentially due to hydrological regime shifts (e.g., triggered by gradual, long-term changes in recharge or single extreme events) or long-term hysteresis (e.g., caused by aquifer storage). This improved understanding of the springshed hydrologic response dynamics is fundamental for managing the ecological, economic and social aspects at the landscape scale.

Decision Making under Ecological Regime Shift: An Experimental Economic Approach

OpenAIRE

Kawata, Yukichika

2011-01-01

Environmental economics postulates the assumption of homo economicus and presumes that externality occurs as a result of the rational economic activities of economic agents. This paper examines this assumption using an experimental economic approach in the context of regime shift, which has been receiving increasing attention. We observe that when externality does not exist, economic agents (subjects of experimemt) act economically rationally, but when externality exists, economic agents avoi...

Representing Sudden Shifts in Intensive Dyadic Interaction Data Using Differential Equation Models with Regime Switching.

Science.gov (United States)

Chow, Sy-Miin; Ou, Lu; Ciptadi, Arridhana; Prince, Emily B; You, Dongjun; Hunter, Michael D; Rehg, James M; Rozga, Agata; Messinger, Daniel S

2018-06-01

A growing number of social scientists have turned to differential equations as a tool for capturing the dynamic interdependence among a system of variables. Current tools for fitting differential equation models do not provide a straightforward mechanism for diagnosing evidence for qualitative shifts in dynamics, nor do they provide ways of identifying the timing and possible determinants of such shifts. In this paper, we discuss regime-switching differential equation models, a novel modeling framework for representing abrupt changes in a system of differential equation models. Estimation was performed by combining the Kim filter (Kim and Nelson State-space models with regime switching: classical and Gibbs-sampling approaches with applications, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1999) and a numerical differential equation solver that can handle both ordinary and stochastic differential equations. The proposed approach was motivated by the need to represent discrete shifts in the movement dynamics of [Formula: see text] mother-infant dyads during the Strange Situation Procedure (SSP), a behavioral assessment where the infant is separated from and reunited with the mother twice. We illustrate the utility of a novel regime-switching differential equation model in representing children's tendency to exhibit shifts between the goal of staying close to their mothers and intermittent interest in moving away from their mothers to explore the room during the SSP. Results from empirical model fitting were supplemented with a Monte Carlo simulation study to evaluate the use of information criterion measures to diagnose sudden shifts in dynamics.

Probe-controlled soliton frequency shift in the regime of optical event horizon

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gu, Jie; Guo, Hairun; Wang, Shaofei

2015-01-01

In optical analogy of the event horizon, temporal pulse collision and mutual interactions are mainly between an intense solitary wave (soliton) and a dispersive probe wave. In such a regime, here we numerically investigate the probe-controlled soliton frequency shift as well as the soliton self...

Mixing regime of the residual water basins of the Aral Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Izhitskiy, Alexander; Zavialov, Peter; Kirillin, Georgiy

2017-04-01

The Aral Sea, a terminal salt lake in western Central Asia situated at the border between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, was ranked as the fourth largest inland water body in the mid-20th century. However, in the early 1960s, the lake's volume started to decrease rapidly due to severe changes in the Aral's water balance. Thus, the present-day Aral Sea can be considered as a system of separate water bodies with a common origin but very different physical, chemical and biological features. Our previous studies showed that the Large Aral Sea and Lake Tshchebas transformed into hyperhaline water bodies, while the Small Aral Sea was a brackish basin with rather similar to the pre-desiccation environment. On the other hand, the Small Aral Sea and Lake Tshchebas exhibited a mixed vertical structure, whereas the Western Large Aral Sea (especially the Chernyshev Bay) was strongly stratified. The presented study is focused on the seasonal mixing regimes of the residual basins. Isolation of deep waters from the atmosphere together with low rates of photosynthesis produce deep anoxia observed in the Chernyshev Bay and in the Large Aral. The high amount of organic matter provides a rich source of nutrients for anoxic microorganisms favoring methanogenesis in the bottom layer of the basins. In the Small Aral, the water column remains well-oxygenated down to the bottom throughout most of the year and development of anoxia is unlikely. The mixing regimes of the recently formed residual lakes of the former Aral Sea will provide manifold effect on the ongoing development of the aquatic system in the following decades. The study is based on a field data collected during two surveys of Shirshov Institute of Oceanology to the Aral Sea, which took place in October, 2015 and June, 2016. In situ measurements including CTD profiling and water sampling were carried out in the northern extremity of the western Large Aral (the Chernyshev Bay), in Lake Tshchebas, and in the Small Aral Sea

Regimes of seasonal air-sea interaction and implications for performance of forced simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wu, Renguang [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Kirtman, Ben P. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, School of Computational Sciences, Fairfax, VA (United States)

2007-09-15

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies can induce anomalous convection through surface evaporation and low-level moisture convergence. This SST forcing of the atmosphere is indicated in a positive local rainfall-SST correlation. Anomalous convection can feedback on SST through cloud-radiation and wind-evaporation effects and wind-induced oceanic mixing and upwelling. These atmospheric feedbacks are reflected in a negative local rainfall-SST tendency correlation. As such, the simultaneous rainfall-SST and rainfall-SST tendency correlations can indicate the nature of local air-sea interactions. Based on the magnitude of simultaneous rainfall-SST and rainfall-SST tendency correlations, the present study identifies three distinct regimes of local air-sea interactions. The relative importance of SST forcing and atmospheric forcing differs in these regimes. In the equatorial central-eastern Pacific and, to a smaller degree, in the western equatorial Indian Ocean, SST forcing dominates throughout the year and the surface heat flux acts mainly as a damping term. In the tropical Indo-western Pacific Ocean regions, SST forcing and atmospheric forcing dominate alternatively in different seasons. Atmospheric forcing dominates in the local warm/rainy season. SST forcing dominates with a positive wind-evaporation feedback during the transition to the cold/dry season. SST forcing also dominates during the transition to the warm/rainy season but with a negative cloud-radiation feedback. The performance of atmospheric general circulation model simulations forced by observed SST is closely linked to the regime of air-sea interaction. The forced simulations have good performance when SST forcing dominates. The performance is low or poor when atmospheric forcing dominates. (orig.)

The Arctic-Subarctic Sea Ice System is Entering a Seasonal Regime: Implications for Future Arctic Amplication

Science.gov (United States)

Haine, T. W. N.; Martin, T.

2017-12-01

The loss of Arctic sea ice is a conspicuous example of climate change. Climate models project ice-free conditions during summer this century under realistic emission scenarios, reflecting the increase in seasonality in ice cover. To quantify the increased seasonality in the Arctic-Subarctic sea ice system, we define a non-dimensional seasonality number for sea ice extent, area, and volume from satellite data and realistic coupled climate models. We show that the Arctic-Subarctic, i.e. the northern hemisphere, sea ice now exhibits similar levels of seasonality to the Antarctic, which is in a seasonal regime without significant change since satellite observations began in 1979. Realistic climate models suggest that this transition to the seasonal regime is being accompanied by a maximum in Arctic amplification, which is the faster warming of Arctic latitudes compared to the global mean, in the 2010s. The strong link points to a peak in sea-ice-related feedbacks that occurs long before the Arctic becomes ice-free in summer.

Preventing regime shifts on the Colorado Plateau: Application of ecological threshold concepts to land management decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Investigating the mechanisms responsible for ecological thresholds is essential to understanding processes leading to ecosystem regime shifts. Dryland ecosystems are especially prone to threshold behavior wherein stressor-mediated alteration of patterns and processes can shift systems to alternative...

Integrated ecological and chemical food web accumulation modeling explains PAH temporal trends during regime shifts in a shallow lake.

Science.gov (United States)

Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Wei; Qin, Ning; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Bin; Yang, Chen; Xu, Fuliu; Mooij, Wolf M; Koelmans, Albert A

2017-08-01

Shallow lakes can switch suddenly from a turbid situation with high concentrations of phytoplankton and other suspended solids to a vegetated state with clear water, and vice versa. These alternative stable states may have a substantial impact on the fate of hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs). Models that are fit to simulate impacts from these complex interactions are scarce. We developed a contaminant fate model which is linked to an ecosystem model (PCLake) for shallow lakes. This integrated model was successful in simulating long-term dynamics (1953-2012) of representative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the main biotic and abiotic components in a large shallow lake (Chaohu in China), which has undergone regime shifts in this period. Historical records from sediment cores were used to evaluate the model. The model revealed that regime shifts in shallow lakes had a strong impact on the fate of less hydrophobic compounds due to the large storage capacity of macrophytes, which accumulated up to 55.6% of phenanthrene in the clear state. The abrupt disappearance of macrophytes after the regime shift resulted in a sudden change in phenanthrene distribution, as the sediment became the major sink. For more hydrophobic compounds such as benzo(a)pyrene, the modeled impact of the regime shift was negligible for the whole environment, yet large for biotic compartments. This study is the first to provide a full mechanistic analysis of the impact of regime shifts on the fate of PAHs in a real lake ecosystem. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Arctic circulation regimes.

Science.gov (United States)

Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L

2015-10-13

Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. © 2015 The Authors.

Transport interests and environmental regimes. The Baltic Sea transit of Russian oil exports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knudsen, Olav F.

2010-01-01

In the environmentally exposed Baltic Sea, a prolonged confrontation has set the transport interests of Russian crude oil against environmental interests, promoted by Russia's neighbours. During the 1990s all the Baltic littoral states - including Russia - collaborated well on marine environmental issues. When Russian oil exports accelerated after 1999, this environmental understanding broke down. Russian interests shifted as its oil income suddenly rose drastically. The confrontation peaked over a proposal to make the entire Baltic Sea into a particularly sensitive sea area (PSSA) under the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The proposal was adopted by the IMO in spite of Russian objections. The article shows how environmental interests trump transport interests in a manner that may not be sustainable. The case illustrates the need for environmental collaboration to be flexible in the face of shifting constellations of competing interests. (author)

Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

Science.gov (United States)

Elliott, Grant P

2012-07-01

Given the widespread and often dramatic influence of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is increasingly common for abrupt threshold changes to occur, yet explicitly testing for climate and ecological regime shifts is lacking in climatically sensitive upper treeline ecotones. In this study, quantitative evidence based on empirical data is provided to support the key role of extrinsic, climate-induced thresholds in governing the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment in these high-elevation environments. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct a 420-year history of regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones along a latitudinal gradient (approximately 44-35 degrees N) in the Rocky Mountains. Correlation analysis was used to assess the possible influence of minimum and maximum temperature indices and cool-season (November-April) precipitation on regional age-structure data. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect thresholds in tree establishment during the entire period of record (1580-2000), temperature variables significantly Correlated with establishment during the 20th century, and cool-season precipitation. Tree establishment was significantly correlated with minimum temperature during the spring (March-May) and cool season. Regime-shift analysis identified an abrupt increase in regional tree establishment in 1950 (1950-1954 age class). Coincident with this period was a shift toward reduced cool-season precipitation. The alignment of these climate conditions apparently triggered an abrupt increase in establishment that was unprecedented during the period of record. Two main findings emerge from this research that underscore the critical role of climate in governing regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones. (1) Regional climate variability is capable of exceeding bioclimatic thresholds, thereby initiating synchronous and abrupt changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment at broad

The effects of freshwater inflow, inlet conveyance and sea level rise on the salinity regime in the Loxahatchee Estuary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, G.

2002-01-01

The upstream migration of salt water into the historic freshwater reaches of the Loxahatchee River is the likely cause of the altered floodplain cypress forest community along the Northwest Fork and some of its tributaries. Mangroves are replacing cypress forest and areas of mixed swamp hardwoods have reacted to different degrees to the saltwater stress. A hydrodynamic/salinity model was developed to study the influence of freshwater input, tidal inlet deepening and sea level rise on the salinity regime in the estuary. Field data analysis and model simulations indicate that the salinity condition in the estuary is sensitive to the amount of freshwater input from the watershed. During dry seasons the salt front advances into areas that were historically freshwater habitats. Historic evidence indicates that the Loxahatchee estuary was periodically closed and opened to the sea. Due to the active long shore sediment transport, the tidal inlet was probably characterized by shifting sandbars through which ran a narrow and unstable channel. Inlet dredging in the past several decades has increased the hydraulic conveyance of the inlet and the tidal influence into the estuary. The sea level record from a site in south Florida indicates that the sea level has been rising at a rate of approximately 2.3-mm per year. The rise of sea level in the past century has probably raised the mean tide level by about 23 centimeters. If the sea level rise continues as predicted, it is foreseeable that the salt front will move further upstream along with the sea level rise. Field data analysis and the preliminary model output led us to believe that the advance of seawater up the estuary is the combined effect of watershed hydrological changes, inlet deepening and sea level rise. (author)

Ecological Regime Shifts in Lake Kälksjön, Sweden, in Response to Abrupt Climate Change Around the 8.2 ka Cooling Event

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Randsalu-Wendrup, L.; Conley, D.J.; Snowball, I.

2012-01-01

. This study demonstrates that it is possible to detect, quantify and test for regime shifts in paleoecological data, and it highlights the need for high sampling resolution and precise chronological control. High-resolution paleoecological reconstructions of ecological regime shifts in response to climate...

Phase-Shift Dynamics of Sea Urchin Overgrazing on Nutrified Reefs.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nina Kriegisch

Full Text Available Shifts from productive kelp beds to impoverished sea urchin barrens occur globally and represent a wholesale change to the ecology of sub-tidal temperate reefs. Although the theory of shifts between alternative stable states is well advanced, there are few field studies detailing the dynamics of these kinds of transitions. In this study, sea urchin herbivory (a 'top-down' driver of ecosystems was manipulated over 12 months to estimate (1 the sea urchin density at which kelp beds collapse to sea urchin barrens, and (2 the minimum sea urchin density required to maintain urchin barrens on experimental reefs in the urbanised Port Phillip Bay, Australia. In parallel, the role of one of the 'bottom-up' drivers of ecosystem structure was examined by (3 manipulating local nutrient levels and thus attempting to alter primary production on the experimental reefs. It was found that densities of 8 or more urchins m-2 (≥ 427 g m-2 biomass lead to complete overgrazing of kelp beds while kelp bed recovery occurred when densities were reduced to ≤ 4 urchins m-2 (≤ 213 g m-2 biomass. This experiment provided further insight into the dynamics of transition between urchin barrens and kelp beds by exploring possible tipping-points which in this system can be found between 4 and 8 urchins m-2 (213 and 427 g m-2 respectively. Local enhancement of nutrient loading did not change the urchin density required for overgrazing or kelp bed recovery, as algal growth was not affected by nutrient enhancement.

Phase-Shift Dynamics of Sea Urchin Overgrazing on Nutrified Reefs.

Science.gov (United States)

Kriegisch, Nina; Reeves, Simon; Johnson, Craig R; Ling, Scott D

2016-01-01

Shifts from productive kelp beds to impoverished sea urchin barrens occur globally and represent a wholesale change to the ecology of sub-tidal temperate reefs. Although the theory of shifts between alternative stable states is well advanced, there are few field studies detailing the dynamics of these kinds of transitions. In this study, sea urchin herbivory (a 'top-down' driver of ecosystems) was manipulated over 12 months to estimate (1) the sea urchin density at which kelp beds collapse to sea urchin barrens, and (2) the minimum sea urchin density required to maintain urchin barrens on experimental reefs in the urbanised Port Phillip Bay, Australia. In parallel, the role of one of the 'bottom-up' drivers of ecosystem structure was examined by (3) manipulating local nutrient levels and thus attempting to alter primary production on the experimental reefs. It was found that densities of 8 or more urchins m-2 (≥ 427 g m-2 biomass) lead to complete overgrazing of kelp beds while kelp bed recovery occurred when densities were reduced to ≤ 4 urchins m-2 (≤ 213 g m-2 biomass). This experiment provided further insight into the dynamics of transition between urchin barrens and kelp beds by exploring possible tipping-points which in this system can be found between 4 and 8 urchins m-2 (213 and 427 g m-2 respectively). Local enhancement of nutrient loading did not change the urchin density required for overgrazing or kelp bed recovery, as algal growth was not affected by nutrient enhancement.

The study of the hydrological regime extreme effects of the Caspian Sea during the XX-XXI centuries

Science.gov (United States)

Yaitskaya, Natalia

2016-04-01

The Caspian Sea - the unique largest enclosed inland body of water on Earth. Significant periodic sea level fluctuations are a typical feature of the sea. In the XIX-XX centuries a number of comprehensive studies of the Caspian Sea was carried out. The results are published in the papers, monographs and climatic atlases. But a number of fundamental questions about the features of the hydrological regime of the Caspian Sea is still open: 1. How does the water circulation change during the level variations? 2. What is the effect of heterogeneity of evaporation from the water surface on the formation of the flow field in the conditions of long-term level changes? 3. How does the water salinity regime change depending on the sea level position, water circulation, river flow and different climatic influences? 4. What is the effect of extreme events (multi-hazards) (ice, storms, destruction of the coasts) on coastal infrastructure? In 2016, the project aims to study hydrological regime extreme effects of the Caspian Sea was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research. Within this project all of the above problems will be solved. Geographic information system "Caspian Sea" for the storage and data processing, including a database of primary oceanographic information for the period of instrumental observations (1897-2013), cartographic database (1921-2011) and tools for multidimensional analysis of spatio-temporal information is the basis of the study. The scheme of interconnected hydrodynamic models (Caspian Sea MODel - Ocean Model - Wind wave model) was developed. The important factors are taken into account in the structure of the models: long-term and seasonal dynamics of the sea waves parameters, new long-term values of evaporation from the shallow waters areas of the Caspian Sea, water circulation. Schemes of general seasonal circulation of the Caspian Sea and the Northern Caspian at different positions of the sea level in XX-XXI centuries using

Regime shift from phytoplankton to macrophyte dominance in a large river: Top-down versus bottom-up effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ibanez, Carles, E-mail: carles.ibanez@irta.cat [IRTA Aquatic Ecosystems, Carretera Poble Nou, Km 5.5, 43540 St. Carles de la Rapita, Catalonia (Spain); Alcaraz, Carles; Caiola, Nuno; Rovira, Albert; Trobajo, Rosa [IRTA Aquatic Ecosystems, Carretera Poble Nou, Km 5.5, 43540 St. Carles de la Rapita, Catalonia (Spain); Alonso, Miguel [United Research Services S.L., Urgell 143, 08036 Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Duran, Concha [Confederacion Hidrografica del Ebro, Sagasta 24-26, 50071 Zaragoza, Aragon (Spain); Jimenez, Pere J. [Grup Natura Freixe, Major 56, 43750 Flix, Catalonia (Spain); Munne, Antoni [Agencia Catalana de l' Aigua, Provenca 204-208, 08036 Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Prat, Narcis [Departament d' Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Diagonal 645, 08028 Barcelona Catalonia (Spain)

2012-02-01

The lower Ebro River (Catalonia, Spain) has recently undergone a regime shift from a phytoplankton-dominated to a macrophyte-dominated system. This shift is well known in shallow lakes but apparently it has never been documented in rivers. Two initial hypotheses to explain the collapse of the phytoplankton were considered: a) the diminution of nutrients (bottom-up); b) the filtering effect due to the colonization of the zebra mussel (top-down). Data on water quality, hydrology and biological communities (phytoplankton, macrophytes and zebra mussel) was obtained both from existing data sets and new surveys. Results clearly indicate that the decrease in phosphorus is the main cause of a dramatic decrease in chlorophyll and large increase in water transparency, triggering the subsequent colonization of macrophytes in the river bed. A Generalized Linear Model analysis showed that the decrease in dissolved phosphorus had a relative importance 14 times higher than the increase in zebra mussel density to explain the variation of total chlorophyll. We suggest that the described changes in the lower Ebro River can be considered a novel ecosystem shift. This shift is triggering remarkable changes in the biological communities beyond the decrease of phytoplankton and the proliferation of macrophytes, such as massive colonization of Simulidae (black fly) and other changes in the benthic invertebrate communities that are currently investigated. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We show a regime shift in a large river from phytoplankton to macrophyte dominance. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Two main hypotheses are considered: nutrient decrease and zebra mussel grazing. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Phosphorus depletion is found to be the main cause of the phytoplankton decline. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We conclude that oligotrophication triggered the colonization of macrophytes. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This new regime shift in a river is similar to that described

Regime shift from phytoplankton to macrophyte dominance in a large river: Top-down versus bottom-up effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ibáñez, Carles; Alcaraz, Carles; Caiola, Nuno; Rovira, Albert; Trobajo, Rosa; Alonso, Miguel; Duran, Concha; Jiménez, Pere J.; Munné, Antoni; Prat, Narcís

2012-01-01

The lower Ebro River (Catalonia, Spain) has recently undergone a regime shift from a phytoplankton-dominated to a macrophyte-dominated system. This shift is well known in shallow lakes but apparently it has never been documented in rivers. Two initial hypotheses to explain the collapse of the phytoplankton were considered: a) the diminution of nutrients (bottom-up); b) the filtering effect due to the colonization of the zebra mussel (top-down). Data on water quality, hydrology and biological communities (phytoplankton, macrophytes and zebra mussel) was obtained both from existing data sets and new surveys. Results clearly indicate that the decrease in phosphorus is the main cause of a dramatic decrease in chlorophyll and large increase in water transparency, triggering the subsequent colonization of macrophytes in the river bed. A Generalized Linear Model analysis showed that the decrease in dissolved phosphorus had a relative importance 14 times higher than the increase in zebra mussel density to explain the variation of total chlorophyll. We suggest that the described changes in the lower Ebro River can be considered a novel ecosystem shift. This shift is triggering remarkable changes in the biological communities beyond the decrease of phytoplankton and the proliferation of macrophytes, such as massive colonization of Simulidae (black fly) and other changes in the benthic invertebrate communities that are currently investigated. - Highlights: ► We show a regime shift in a large river from phytoplankton to macrophyte dominance. ► Two main hypotheses are considered: nutrient decrease and zebra mussel grazing. ► Phosphorus depletion is found to be the main cause of the phytoplankton decline. ► We conclude that oligotrophication triggered the colonization of macrophytes. ► This new regime shift in a river is similar to that described in shallow lakes.

Regime shift of snow days in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Marty, Christoph

2008-06-01

The number of days with a snow depth above a certain threshold is the key factor for winter tourism in an Alpine country like Switzerland. An investigation of 34 long-term stations between 200 and 1800 m asl (above sea level) going back for at least the last 60 years (1948-2007) shows an unprecedented series of low snow winters in the last 20 years. The signal is uniform despite high regional differences. A shift detection analysis revealed a significant step-like decrease in snow days at the end of the 1980's with no clear trend since then. This abrupt change resulted in a loss of 20% to 60% of the total snow days. The stepwise increase of the mean winter temperature at the end of the 1980's and its close correlation with the snow day anomalies corroborate the sensitivity of the mid-latitude winter to the climate change induced temperature increase.

Shifting environmental baselines in the Red Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Price, A R G; Ghazi, S J; Tkaczynski, P J; Venkatachalam, A J; Santillan, A; Pancho, T; Metcalfe, R; Saunders, J

2014-01-15

The Red Sea is among the world's top marine biodiversity hotspots. We re-examined coastal ecosystems at sites surveyed during the 1980s using the same methodology. Coral cover increased significantly towards the north, mirroring the reverse pattern for mangroves and other sedimentary ecosystems. Latitudinal patterns are broadly consistent across both surveys and with results from independent studies. Coral cover showed greatest change, declining significantly from a median score of 4 (1000-9999 m(2)) to 2 (10-99m(2)) per quadrat in 2010/11. This may partly reflect impact from coastal construction, which was evident at 40% of sites and has significantly increased in magnitude over 30 years. Beach oil has significantly declined, but shore debris has increased significantly. Although substantial, levels are lower than at some remote ocean atolls. While earlier reports have suggested that the Red Sea is generally healthy, shifting environmental baselines are evident from the current study. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Review of the Detection Methods for Climate Regime Shifts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qunqun Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available An abrupt climate change means that the climate system shifts from a steady state to another steady state. Study on the phenomenon and theory of the abrupt climate change is a new research field of modern climatology, and it is of great significance for the prediction of future climate change. The climate regime shift is one of the most common forms of abrupt climate change, which mainly refers to the statistical significant changes on the variable of climate system at one time scale. These detection methods can be roughly divided into five categories based on different types of abrupt changes, namely, abrupt mean value change, abrupt variance change, abrupt frequency change, abrupt probability density change, and the multivariable analysis. The main research progress of abrupt climate change detection methods is reviewed. What is more, some actual applications of those methods in observational data are provided. With the development of nonlinear science, many new methods have been presented for detecting an abrupt dynamic change in recent years, which is useful supplement for the abrupt change detection methods.

Kittiwake diets and chick production signal a 2008 regime shift in the Northeast Pacific

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Hatch, Scott A.

2013-01-01

I examined ~2700 food samples collected from adult and nestling black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla from 1978 through 2011 on Middleton Island in the Gulf of Alaska. The kittiwake diet was composed chiefly of fish, but invertebrates were taken in appreciable quantities in April and May. Upon spring arrival at the colony, adult kittiwakes foraged regularly at night on vertically migrating mesopelagic prey—lanternfishes (Myctophidae), squids, crustaceans, and polychaetes—a behavior they largely discontinued by egg-laying. During incubation and chick-rearing, food samples contained mostly (~85% by weight) Pacific sand lance Ammodytes hexapterus, capelin Mallotus villosus, Pacific herring Clupea pallasii, sablefish Anopoploma fimbria, krill (Euphausiidae), and juvenile salmon Onchorynchus gorboscha and O. keta. A salient finding over the longitudinal study was the emergence, twice, of capelin as a dominant forage species—once in 2000 to 2003, and again in 2008 through 2011. Kittiwakes responded to capelin availability by producing markedly higher numbers of fledged young. The 2000 to 2003 event corresponded to a previously documented shift to cooler conditions in the NE Pacific, which apparently was relatively limited in magnitude or duration. The more recent transition appears stronger and may be more lasting. I submit that 2008 was an important turning point, marking a substantive reversal of warm conditions that began with the well-documented regime shift of 1977. That interpretation is consistent with the existence of a ~60 yr cycle in ocean and atmospheric conditions in the North Pacific. All else being equal, it predicts the next 20 to 30 yr will be favorable for species such as kittiwakes and Steller sea lions, which seemed to respond negatively to the 1977 to 2007 warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Benthic-planktonic coupling, regime shifts, and whole-lake primary production in shallow lakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Genkai-Kato, Motomi; Vadeboncoeur, Yvonne; Liboriussen, Lone; Jeppesen, Erik

2012-03-01

Alternative stable states in shallow lakes are typically characterized by submerged macrophyte (clear-water state) or phytoplankton (turbid state) dominance. However, a clear-water state may occur in eutrophic lakes even when macrophytes are absent. To test whether sediment algae could cause a regime shift in the absence of macrophytes, we developed a model of benthic (periphyton) and planktonic (phytoplankton) primary production using parameters derived from a shallow macrophyte-free lake that shifted from a turbid to a clear-water state following fish removal (biomanipulation). The model includes a negative feedback effect of periphyton on phosphorus (P) release from sediments. This in turn induces a positive feedback between phytoplankton production and P release. Scenarios incorporating a gradient of external P loading rates revealed that (1) periphyton and phytoplankton both contributed substantially to whole-lake production over a broad range of external P loading in a clear-water state; (2) during the clear-water state, the loss of benthic production was gradually replaced by phytoplankton production, leaving whole-lake production largely unchanged; (3) the responses of lakes to biomanipulation and increased external P loading were both dependent on lake morphometry; and (4) the capacity of periphyton to buffer the effects of increased external P loading and maintain a clear-water state was highly sensitive to relationships between light availability at the sediment surface and the of P release. Our model suggests a mechanism for the persistence of alternative states in shallow macrophyte-free lakes and demonstrates that regime shifts may trigger profound changes in ecosystem structure and function.

Sector-based political analysis of energy transition: Green shift in the forest policy regime in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sergent, Arnaud

2014-01-01

This article examines energy transition political process from a sector-based approach, through the analysis of recent shift in the French forest policy regime. We demonstrate that, since 2007, energy transition policies have led to a harvesting turn within the French forest policy framework, meaning that priority is given to wood mobilisation, mainly for biomass uses. In addition, our findings suggest that the political authority wielded by the state over forest policy has shifted from forest administrative services to energy agencies and local authorities. Finally, we show that, although implementation of the harvesting turn is a cause of sectoral and inter-sectoral tensions, energy transition challenge also contributes to a process of (re)institutionalisation of mediation relationships among forestry stakeholders and wood-based industries representatives. The article concludes by arguing that sectors should retain relevant institutional frameworks for actors when choosing political arrangements required for implementing energy transition policy. - Highlights: • Implementing energy transition policy potentially challenges sector-based politics. • We propose a policy regime framework and socio-political investigations. • We analyse the political impact of energy transition policy on French forest sector. • Shifts occur in sectoral policy framework, authority, and mediation relationships

Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America.

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Gennaretti, Fabio; Arseneault, Dominique; Nicault, Antoine; Perreault, Luc; Bégin, Yves

2014-07-15

Dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada recently suggested that a succession of strong volcanic eruptions forced an abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age between A.D. 1275 and 1300 [Miller GH, et al. (2012) Geophys Res Lett 39(2):L02708, 10.1029/2011GL050168]. Although this idea is supported by simulation experiments with general circulation models, additional support from field data are limited. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere network of temperature-sensitive millennial tree-ring chronologies, which principally comprises Eurasian sites, suggests that the strongest eruptions only caused cooling episodes lasting less than about 10 y. Here we present a new network of millennial tree-ring chronologies from the taiga of northeastern North America, which fills a wide gap in the network of the Northern Hemisphere's chronologies suitable for temperature reconstructions and supports the hypothesis that volcanoes triggered both the onset and the coldest episode of the Little Ice Age. Following the well-expressed Medieval Climate Anomaly (approximately A.D. 910-1257), which comprised the warmest decades of the last millennium, our tree-ring-based temperature reconstruction displays an abrupt regime shift toward lower average summer temperatures precisely coinciding with a series of 13th century eruptions centered around the 1257 Samalas event and closely preceding ice-cap expansion in Arctic Canada. Furthermore, the successive 1809 (unknown volcano) and 1815 (Tambora) eruptions triggered a subsequent shift to the coldest 40-y period of the last 1100 y. These results confirm that series of large eruptions may cause region-specific regime shifts in the climate system and that the climate of northeastern North America is especially sensitive to volcanic forcing.

Precipitation Regime Shift Enhanced the Rain Pulse Effect on Soil Respiration in a Semi-Arid Steppe

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Yan, Liming; Chen, Shiping; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi

2014-01-01

The effect of resource pulses, such as rainfall events, on soil respiration plays an important role in controlling grassland carbon balance, but how shifts in long-term precipitation regime regulate rain pulse effect on soil respiration is still unclear. We first quantified the influence of rainfall event on soil respiration based on a two-year (2006 and 2009) continuously measured soil respiration data set in a temperate steppe in northern China. In 2006 and 2009, soil carbon release induced by rainfall events contributed about 44.5% (83.3 g C m−2) and 39.6% (61.7 g C m−2) to the growing-season total soil respiration, respectively. The pulse effect of rainfall event on soil respiration can be accurately predicted by a water status index (WSI), which is the product of rainfall event size and the ratio between antecedent soil temperature to moisture at the depth of 10 cm (r 2 = 0.92, Psoil temperature/moisture ratio which is usually associated with longer dry spells. We then analyzed a long-term (1953–2009) precipitation record in the experimental area. We found both the extreme heavy rainfall events (>40 mm per event) and the long dry-spells (>5 days) during the growing seasons increased from 1953–2009. It suggests the shift in precipitation regime has increased the contribution of rain pulse effect to growing-season total soil respiration in this region. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating precipitation regime shift and its impacts on the rain pulse effect into the future predictions of grassland carbon cycle under climate change. PMID:25093573

Signatures of global warming and regional climate shift in the Arabian Sea

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

PrasannaKumar, S.; Roshin, R.P.; Narvekar, J.; DineshKumar, P.K.; Vivekanandan, E.

phytoplankton biomass during fall and winter is attributed to the iron-fertilization driven by enhanced dust-delivery under this regional climate shift. Finally, it is shown that the increased fish (oil-sardine) catch in the eastern and western Arabian Sea after...

Air-sea interaction regimes in the sub-Antarctic Southern Ocean and Antarctic marginal ice zone revealed by icebreaker measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Lisan; Jin, Xiangze; Schulz, Eric W.; Josey, Simon A.

2017-08-01

This study analyzed shipboard air-sea measurements acquired by the icebreaker Aurora Australis during its off-winter operation in December 2010 to May 2012. Mean conditions over 7 months (October-April) were compiled from a total of 22 ship tracks. The icebreaker traversed the water between Hobart, Tasmania, and the Antarctic continent, providing valuable in situ insight into two dynamically important, yet poorly sampled, regimes: the sub-Antarctic Southern Ocean and the Antarctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) in the Indian Ocean sector. The transition from the open water to the ice-covered surface creates sharp changes in albedo, surface roughness, and air temperature, leading to consequential effects on air-sea variables and fluxes. Major effort was made to estimate the air-sea fluxes in the MIZ using the bulk flux algorithms that are tuned specifically for the sea-ice effects, while computing the fluxes over the sub-Antarctic section using the COARE3.0 algorithm. The study evidenced strong sea-ice modulations on winds, with the southerly airflow showing deceleration (convergence) in the MIZ and acceleration (divergence) when moving away from the MIZ. Marked seasonal variations in heat exchanges between the atmosphere and the ice margin were noted. The monotonic increase in turbulent latent and sensible heat fluxes after summer turned the MIZ quickly into a heat loss regime, while at the same time the sub-Antarctic surface water continued to receive heat from the atmosphere. The drastic increase in turbulent heat loss in the MIZ contrasted sharply to the nonsignificant and seasonally invariant turbulent heat loss over the sub-Antarctic open water.Plain Language SummaryThe icebreaker Aurora Australis is a research and supply vessel that is regularly chartered by the Australian Antarctic Division during the southern summer to operate in waters between Hobart, Tasmania, and Antarctica. The vessel serves as the main lifeline to three permanent research stations on the

Covariance among North Sea nutrient and climate drivers: consequences for plankton dynamics.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

McQuatters-Gollop, A.; Vermaat, J.E.

2011-01-01

Regime shift and principal component analysis of a spatially disaggregated database capturing time-series of climatic, nutrient and plankton variables in the North Sea revealed considerable covariance between groups of ecosystem indicators. Plankton and climate time-series span the period 1958-2003,

Bacterial use of choline to tolerate salinity shifts in sea-ice brines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Firth, E.; Carpenter, S. D.; Sørensen, H. L.

2016-01-01

Bacteria within the brine network of sea ice experience temperature-driven fluctuations in salinity on both short and long temporal scales, yet their means of osmoprotection against such fluctuations is poorly understood. One mechanism used to withstand the ion fluxes caused by salinity shifts, w...

Eastward shift and maintenance of Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone: Understanding the paradox

Science.gov (United States)

Acharya, Shiba Shankar; Panigrahi, Mruganka K.

2016-09-01

The dominance of Oxygen Minimum Zone in the eastern part of the Arabian Sea (ASOMZ) instead of the more bio-productive and likely more oxygen consuming western part is the first part of the paradox. The sources of oxygen to the ASOMZ were evaluated through the distributions of different water masses using the extended optimum multiparameter (eOMP) analysis, whereas the sinks of oxygen were evaluated through the organic matter remineralization, using the apparent oxygen utilization (AOU). The contributions of major source waters to the Arabian Sea viz. Indian Deep water (dIDW), Indian Central water (ICW), Persian Gulf Water (PGW) and Red Sea Water (RSW) have been quantified through the eOMP analysis which shows that the PGW and RSW are significant for the eastward shift of ASOMZ instead of voluminous ICW and dIDW. The distribution of Net Primary Production (NPP) and AOU clearly suggest the transport of organic detritus from the highly productive western Arabian Sea to its eastern counterpart which adds to the eastward shifting of ASOMZ. A revised estimate of the seasonal variation of areal extent and volume occupied by ASOMZ through analysis of latest available data reveals a distinct intensification of ASOMZ by 30% and increase in its volume by 5% during the spring-summer transition. However, during this seasonal transition the productivity in the Arabian Sea shows 100% increase in mean NPP. This disparity between ASOMZ and monsoonal variation of productivity is the other part of the paradox, which has been constrained through apparent oxygen utilization, Net Primary Production along with a variation of core depths of source waters. This study reveals a subtle balance between the circulation of marginal oxygen-rich water masses from the western Arabian Sea and organic matter remineralization in the eastern Arabian Sea in different seasons that explains the maintenance of ASOMZ throughout the year.

Historical Regimes and Social Indicators of Resilience in an Urban System: the Case of Charleston, South Carolina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Regina Bures

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Employing the adaptive cycle and panarchy in perturbed urban systems can contribute to a better understanding of how these systems respond to broad-scale changes such as war and sea level rise. In this paper we apply a resilience perspective to examine regime shifts in Charleston, South Carolina from a historical perspective. We then look more closely at changes that occurred in Charleston in recent decades, including Hurricane Hugo, and the potential effects of these changes on resilience of the social-ecological system to future shocks. We close with a discussion combining social and ecological perspectives to examine future regime-shift scenarios in the Charleston case and suggest ways to better understand resilience in other coastal urban systems.

Pre-"peak water" time in the southwest Yukon: when cryospheric changes trigger hydrological regime shifts

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Baraer, M.; Chesnokova, A.; Huh, K. I.; Laperriere-Robillard, T.

2017-12-01

Saint-Elias Mountains host numerous cryospheric systems such as glaciers, seasonal and perennial snow cover, permafrost, aufeis, and different forms of buried ice. Those systems are very sensitive to climate changes and exhibit ongoing reduction in extent and/or changes in formation/ablation times. Because they highly influence the hydrological regimes of rivers, cryospheric changes raise concerns about consequences for regional water resources and ecosystems. The present study combines historical data analysis and hydrological modeling in order to estimate how cryospheric changes impact hydrological regimes at eight watersheds of different glacier cover (0- 30%) in the southwest Yukon. Methods combine traditional hydrograph analysis techniques and more advance techniques such as Fast Fourier Transform filters used to isolate significant trends in discharge properties from noise or climatic oscillations. Measured trends in discharge variables are connected to cryospheric changes by using a water balance / peak water model (Baraer et al., 2012), here adapted to the main cryospheric systems that characterize the southwest Yukon.Results show three distinct hydrological regimes for (1) non glacierized, (2) glacierized, and (3) major lakes hosting catchments. The studied glacierized catchments have not passed the "peak water" yet and still exhibit increases in yearly and late summer discharges and a decrease in runoff variability. All watersheds show an increase in winter discharge and a snowmelt-driven shift of yearly peak discharge toward earlier in the season. The study suggests that, in a couple of decades, water resources and dependent ecosystems will face the combined effects of (A) a shift in the contribution trend from declining perennial cryospheric systems and (B) continuing alteration of the contribution from the seasonal cryospheric systems.

Deciphering Equatorial Pacific Deep Sea Sediment Transport Regimes by Core-Log-Seismic Integration

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz, E.; Tominaga, M.; Marcantonio, F.

2017-12-01

Investigating deep-sea sediment transportation and deposition regimes is a key to accurately understand implications from geological information recorded by pelagic sediments, e.g. climate signals. However, except for physical oceanographic particle trap experiments, geochemical analyses of in situsediments, and theoretical modeling of the relation between the bottom currents and sediment particle flux, it has remained a challenging task to document the movement of deep sea sediments, that takes place over time. We utilized high-resolution, multichannel reflection seismic data from the eastern equatorial Pacific region with drilling and logging results from two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) sites, the Pacific Equatorial Age Transect (PEAT) 7 (Site U1337) and 8 (Site U1338), to characterize sediment transportation regimes on 18-24 Ma oceanic crust. Site U1337, constructed by a series of distinct abyssal hills and abyssal basins; Site U1338, located 570 km SE from Site U1337 site and constructed by a series of ridges, seamounts, and abyssal hills. These sites are of particular interest due to their proximity to the equatorial productivity zone, areas with high sedimentation rates and preservation of carbonate-bearing sediment that provide invaluable insights on equatorial Pacific ecosystems and carbon cycle. We integrate downhole geophysical logging data as well as geochemistry and physical properties measurements on recovered cores from IODP Sites U1337 and U1338 to comprehensively examine the mobility of deep-sea sediments and sediment diagenesis over times in a quasi-3D manner. We also examine 1100 km of high resolution underway seismic surveys from site survey lines in between PEAT 7 and 8 in order to investigate changes in sediment transportation between both sites. Integrating detailed seismic interpretations, high resolution core data, and 230Th flux measurements we aim to create a detailed chronological sedimentation and sediment diagenesis history

Beyond the fragmentation threshold hypothesis: regime shifts in biodiversity across fragmented landscapes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renata Pardini

Full Text Available Ecological systems are vulnerable to irreversible change when key system properties are pushed over thresholds, resulting in the loss of resilience and the precipitation of a regime shift. Perhaps the most important of such properties in human-modified landscapes is the total amount of remnant native vegetation. In a seminal study Andrén proposed the existence of a fragmentation threshold in the total amount of remnant vegetation, below which landscape-scale connectivity is eroded and local species richness and abundance become dependent on patch size. Despite the fact that species patch-area effects have been a mainstay of conservation science there has yet to be a robust empirical evaluation of this hypothesis. Here we present and test a new conceptual model describing the mechanisms and consequences of biodiversity change in fragmented landscapes, identifying the fragmentation threshold as a first step in a positive feedback mechanism that has the capacity to impair ecological resilience, and drive a regime shift in biodiversity. The model considers that local extinction risk is defined by patch size, and immigration rates by landscape vegetation cover, and that the recovery from local species losses depends upon the landscape species pool. Using a unique dataset on the distribution of non-volant small mammals across replicate landscapes in the Atlantic forest of Brazil, we found strong evidence for our model predictions--that patch-area effects are evident only at intermediate levels of total forest cover, where landscape diversity is still high and opportunities for enhancing biodiversity through local management are greatest. Furthermore, high levels of forest loss can push native biota through an extinction filter, and result in the abrupt, landscape-wide loss of forest-specialist taxa, ecological resilience and management effectiveness. The proposed model links hitherto distinct theoretical approaches within a single framework

Probe-controlled soliton frequency shift in the regime of optical event horizon.

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Jie; Guo, Hairun; Wang, Shaofei; Zeng, Xianglong

2015-08-24

In optical analogy of the event horizon, temporal pulse collision and mutual interactions are mainly between an intense solitary wave (soliton) and a dispersive probe wave. In such a regime, here we numerically investigate the probe-controlled soliton frequency shift as well as the soliton self-compression. In particular, in the dispersion landscape with multiple zero dispersion wavelengths, bi-directional soliton spectral tunneling effects is possible. Moreover, we propose a mid-infrared soliton self-compression to the generation of few-cycle ultrashort pulses, in a bulk of quadratic nonlinear crystals in contrast to optical fibers or cubic nonlinear media, which could contribute to the community with a simple and flexible method to experimental implementations.

Hydrological regulation drives regime shifts: evidence from paleolimnology and ecosystem modeling of a large shallow Chinese lake.

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Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Qishuang; Yang, Bin; He, Wei; Xu, Fuliu; Janssen, Annette B G; Kuiper, Jan J; van Gerven, Luuk P A; Qin, Ning; Jiang, Yujiao; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Chen; Bai, Zelin; Zhang, Min; Kong, Fanxiang; Janse, Jan H; Mooij, Wolf M

2017-02-01

Quantitative evidence of sudden shifts in ecological structure and function in large shallow lakes is rare, even though they provide essential benefits to society. Such 'regime shifts' can be driven by human activities which degrade ecological stability including water level control (WLC) and nutrient loading. Interactions between WLC and nutrient loading on the long-term dynamics of shallow lake ecosystems are, however, often overlooked and largely underestimated, which has hampered the effectiveness of lake management. Here, we focus on a large shallow lake (Lake Chaohu) located in one of the most densely populated areas in China, the lower Yangtze River floodplain, which has undergone both WLC and increasing nutrient loading over the last several decades. We applied a novel methodology that combines consistent evidence from both paleolimnological records and ecosystem modeling to overcome the hurdle of data insufficiency and to unravel the drivers and underlying mechanisms in ecosystem dynamics. We identified the occurrence of two regime shifts: one in 1963, characterized by the abrupt disappearance of submerged vegetation, and another around 1980, with strong algal blooms being observed thereafter. Using model scenarios, we further disentangled the roles of WLC and nutrient loading, showing that the 1963 shift was predominantly triggered by WLC, whereas the shift ca. 1980 was attributed to aggravated nutrient loading. Our analysis also shows interactions between these two stressors. Compared to the dynamics driven by nutrient loading alone, WLC reduced the critical P loading and resulted in earlier disappearance of submerged vegetation and emergence of algal blooms by approximately 26 and 10 years, respectively. Overall, our study reveals the significant role of hydrological regulation in driving shallow lake ecosystem dynamics, and it highlights the urgency of using multi-objective management criteria that includes ecological sustainability perspectives when

Two regimes of the Arctic's circulation from ocean models with ice and contaminants.

Science.gov (United States)

Proshutinsky, A Y; Johnson, M

2001-01-01

A two-dimensional barotropic, coupled, ocean-ice model with a space resolution of 55.5 km and driven by atmospheric forces, river run-off, and sea-level slope between the Pacific and the Arctic Oceans, has been used to simulate the vertically averaged currents and ice drift in the Arctic Ocean. Results from 43 years of numerical simulations of water and ice motions demonstrate that two wind-driven circulation regimes are possible in the Arctic, a cyclonic and an anti-cyclonic circulation. These two regimes appear to alternate at 5-7 year intervals with the 10-15 year period. It is important to pollution studies to understand which circulation regime prevails at any time. It is anticipated that 1995 is a year with a cyclonic regime, and during this cyclonic phase and possibly during past cyclonic regimes as well, pollutants may reach the Alaskan shelf. The regime shifts demonstrated in this paper are fundamentally important to understanding the Arctic's general circulation and particularly important for estimating pollution transport.

Do limiting factors at Alaskan treelines shift with climatic regimes?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohse, B; Jansen, F; Wilmking, M

2012-01-01

Trees at Alaskan treelines are assumed to be limited by temperature and to expand upslope and/or to higher latitudes with global warming. However, recent studies describe negative temperature responses and drought stress of Alaskan treeline trees in recent decades. In this study, we have analyzed the responses of treeline white spruce to temperature and precipitation according to different climatic regimes in Alaska, described as negative (cool) and positive (warm) phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We found that in three consecutive phases (positive from 1925–46, negative from 1947–76, and positive again from 1977–98), the growth responses to temperature and precipitation differed markedly. Before 1947, in a phase of warm winters and with summer temperatures being close to the century mean, the trees at most sites responded positively to summer temperature, as one would expect from treeline trees at northern high latitudes. Between 1947 and 1976, a phase of cold winters and average summers, the trees showed similar responses, but a new pattern of negative responses to the summer temperature of the year prior to growth coupled with positive responses to the precipitation in the same year emerged at some sites. As the precipitation was relatively low at those sites, we assume that drought stress might have played a role. However, the climate responses were not uniform but were modified by regional gradients (trees at northern sites responded more often to temperature than trees at southern sites) and local site conditions (forest trees responded more often to precipitation than treeline trees), possibly reflecting differences in energy and water balance across regions and sites, respectively. However, since the shift in the PDO in 1976 from a negative to a positive phase, the trees’ climate–growth responses are much less pronounced and climate seems to have lost its importance as a limiting factor for the growth of treeline white spruce. If

Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at sea, and climate, 1955-2002

Science.gov (United States)

Ruggerone, G.T.; Nielsen, J.L.; Bumgarner, J.

2007-01-01

We tested the hypothesis that increased growth of salmon during early marine life contributed to greater survival and abundance of salmon following the 1976/1977 climate regime shift and that this, in turn, led to density-dependent reductions in growth during late marine stages. Annual measurements of Bristol Bay (Bering Sea) and Chignik (Gulf of Alaska) sockeye salmon scale growth from 1955 to 2002 were used as indices of body growth. During the first and second years at sea, growth of both stocks tended to be higher after the 1976-1977 climate shift, whereas growth during the third year and homeward migration was often below average. Multiple regression models indicated that return per spawner of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and adult abundance of western and central Alaska sockeye salmon were positively correlated with growth during the first 2 years at sea and negatively correlated with growth during later life stages. After accounting for competition between Bristol Bay sockeye and Asian pink salmon, age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon increased after the 1976-1977 regime shift, then decreased after the 1989 climate shift. Late marine growth and age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon was exceptionally low after 1989, possibly reducing their reproductive potential. These findings support the hypothesis that greater marine growth during the first 2 years at sea contributed to greater salmon survival and abundance, which in turn led to density-dependent growth during later life stages when size-related mortality was likely lower. Our findings provide new evidence supporting the importance of bottom-up control in marine ecosystems and highlight the complex dynamics of species interactions that continually change as salmon grow and mature in the ocean. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Limnological regime shifts caused by climate warming and Lesser Snow Goose population expansion in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Manitoba, Canada).

Science.gov (United States)

MacDonald, Lauren A; Farquharson, Nicole; Merritt, Gillian; Fooks, Sam; Medeiros, Andrew S; Hall, Roland I; Wolfe, Brent B; Macrae, Merrin L; Sweetman, Jon N

2015-02-01

Shallow lakes are dominant features in subarctic and Arctic landscapes and are responsive to multiple stressors, which can lead to rapid changes in limnological regimes with consequences for aquatic resources. We address this theme in the coastal tundra region of Wapusk National Park, western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Canada), where climate has warmed during the past century and the Lesser Snow Goose (LSG; Chen caerulescens caerulescens) population has grown rapidly during the past ∽40 years. Integration of limnological and paleolimnological analyses documents profound responses of productivity, nutrient cycling, and aquatic habitat to warming at three ponds ("WAP 12", "WAP 20", and "WAP 21″), and to LSG disturbance at the two ponds located in an active nesting area (WAP 20, WAP 21). Based on multiparameter analysis of (210)Pb-dated sediment records from all three ponds, a regime shift occurred between 1875 and 1900 CE marked by a transition from low productivity, turbid, and nutrient-poor conditions of the Little Ice Age to conditions of higher productivity, lower nitrogen availability, and the development of benthic biofilm habitat as a result of climate warming. Beginning in the mid-1970s, sediment records from WAP 20 and WAP 21 reveal a second regime shift characterized by accelerated productivity and increased nitrogen availability. Coupled with 3 years of limnological data, results suggest that increased productivity at WAP 20 and WAP 21 led to atmospheric CO2 invasion to meet algal photosynthetic demand. This limnological regime shift is attributed to an increase in the supply of catchment-derived nutrients from the arrival of LSG and their subsequent disturbance to the landscape. Collectively, findings discriminate the consequences of warming and LSG disturbance on tundra ponds from which we identify a suite of sensitive limnological and paleolimnological measures that can be utilized to inform aquatic ecosystem monitoring.

Climate and vegetational regime shifts in the late Paleozoic ice age earth.

Science.gov (United States)

DiMichele, W A; Montañez, I P; Poulsen, C J; Tabor, N J

2009-03-01

The late Paleozoic earth experienced alternation between glacial and non-glacial climates at multiple temporal scales, accompanied by atmospheric CO2 fluctuations and global warming intervals, often attended by significant vegetational changes in equatorial latitudes of Pangaea. We assess the nature of climate-vegetation interaction during two time intervals: middle-late Pennsylvanian transition and Pennsylvanian-Permian transition, each marked by tropical warming and drying. In case study 1, there is a catastrophic intra-biomic reorganization of dominance and diversity in wetland, evergreen vegetation growing under humid climates. This represents a threshold-type change, possibly a regime shift to an alternative stable state. Case study 2 is an inter-biome dominance change in western and central Pangaea from humid wetland and seasonally dry to semi-arid vegetation. Shifts between these vegetation types had been occurring in Euramerican portions of the equatorial region throughout the late middle and late Pennsylvanian, the drier vegetation reaching persistent dominance by Early Permian. The oscillatory transition between humid and seasonally dry vegetation appears to demonstrate a threshold-like behavior but probably not repeated transitions between alternative stable states. Rather, changes in dominance in lowland equatorial regions were driven by long-term, repetitive climatic oscillations, occurring with increasing intensity, within overall shift to seasonal dryness through time. In neither case study are there clear biotic or abiotic warning signs of looming changes in vegetational composition or geographic distribution, nor is it clear that there are specific, absolute values or rates of environmental change in temperature, rainfall distribution and amount, or atmospheric composition, approach to which might indicate proximity to a terrestrial biotic-change threshold.

Regime shifts and ecological catastrophes in a model of plankton-oxygen dynamics under the climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Petrovskii, Sergei; Sekerci, Yadigar; Venturino, Ezio

2017-07-07

It is estimated that more than a half of the total atmospheric oxygen is produced in the oceans due to the photosynthetic activity of phytoplankton. Any significant decrease in the net oxygen production by phytoplankton is therefore likely to result in the depletion of atmospheric oxygen and in a global mass mortality of animals and humans. In its turn, the rate of oxygen production is known to depend on water temperature and hence can be affected by the global warming. We address this problem theoretically by considering a model of a coupled plankton-oxygen dynamics where the rate of oxygen production slowly changes with time to account for the ocean warming. We show that, when the temperature rises sufficiently high, a regime shift happens: the sustainable oxygen production becomes impossible and the system's dynamics leads to fast oxygen depletion and plankton extinction. We also consider a scenario when, after a certain period of increase, the temperature is set on a new higher yet apparently safe value, i.e. before the oxygen depletion disaster happens. We show that in this case the system dynamics may exhibit a long-term quasi-sustainable dynamics that can still result in an ecological disaster (oxygen depletion and mass extinctions) but only after a considerable period of time. Finally, we discuss the early warning signals of the approaching regime shift resulting in the disaster. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic Effect of a Change in the Exchange Rate System: From a Fixed Regime to a Basket-Peg or a Floating Regime

OpenAIRE

Yoshino, Naoyuki; Kaji, Sahoko; Asonuma, Tamon

2015-01-01

This paper theoretically evaluates the dynamic effects of a shift in an exchange rate system from a fixed regime to a basket peg, or to a floating regime, and obtains transition paths for the shift based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We apply quantitative analysis using data from the People's Republic of China and Thailand and find that a small open country would be better off shifting to a basket peg or to a floating regime than maintaining a doll...

Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moellmann, C; Diekmann, Rabea; Muller-Karulis, B

2009-01-01

the Baltic Sea, the largest brackish water body in the world ocean, and its ecosystems are strongly affected by atmospheric and anthropogenic drivers. Here, we present results of an analysis of the state and development of the Central Baltic Sea ecosystem integrating hydroclimatic, nutrient, phyto......Marine ecosystems such as the Baltic Sea are currently under strong atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure. Besides natural and human-induced changes in climate, major anthropogenic drivers such as overfishing and anthropogenic eutrophication are significantly affecting ecosystem structure...

The altered ecology of Lake Christina: A record of regime shifts, land-use change, and management from a temperate shallow lake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Theissen, Kevin M.; Hobbs, William O.; Hobbs, Joy M. Ramstack; Zimmer, Kyle D.; Domine, Leah M.; Cotner, James B.; Sugita, Shinya

2012-01-01

We collected two sediment cores and modern submerged aquatic plants and phytoplankton from two sub-basins of Lake Christina, a large shallow lake in west-central Minnesota, and used stable isotopic and elemental proxies from sedimentary organic matter to explore questions about the pre- and post-settlement ecology of the lake. The two morphologically distinct sub-basins vary in their sensitivities to internal and external perturbations offering different paleoecological information. The record from the shallower and much larger western sub-basin reflects its strong response to internal processes, while the smaller and deeper eastern sub-basin record primarily reflects external processes including important post-settlement land-use changes in the area. A significant increase in organic carbon accumulation (3–4 times pre-settlement rates) and long-term trends in δ 13 C, organic carbon to nitrogen ratios (C/N), and biogenic silica concentrations shows that primary production has increased and the lake has become increasingly phytoplankton-dominated in the post-settlement period. Significant shifts in δ 15 N values reflect land-clearing and agricultural practices in the region and support the idea that nutrient inputs have played an important role in triggering changes in the trophic status of the lake. Our examination of hydroclimatic data for the region over the last century suggests that natural forcings on lake ecology have diminished in their importance as human management of the lake increased in the mid-1900s. In the last 50 years, three chemical biomanipulations have temporarily shifted the lake from the turbid, algal-dominated condition into a desired clear water regime. Two of our proxies (δ 13 C and BSi) measured from the higher resolution eastern basin record responded significantly to these known regime shifts. -- Highlights: ► We explore the sediment geochemistry from Lake Christina's two distinct sub-basins. ► Our geochemical data show

Hydrological regime shift in a constructed catchment: Effect of vegetation encroachment on surface runoff

Science.gov (United States)

Hinz, C.; Caviedes-Voullieme, D.; Andezhath Mohanan, A.; Brueck, Y.; Zaplata, M.

2017-12-01

The Hühnerwasser catchment (Chicken Creek) was constructed to provide discharge for a small stream in the post-mining landscape of Lusatia, Germany. It has an area of 6 ha and quaternary sands with a thickness of 2-4 m were dumped on to a clay liner to prevent deep drainage. After completion of the construction the catchment was left to develop on its own without intervention and has been monitored since 2005. The upper part of the catchment discharges water and sediment into the lower part forming an alluvial fan. Below the alluvial fan is a pond receiving all surface and subsurface water from the upper catchment. After the formation of the drainage network vegetation started growing and surface runoff decreased until the water balance was dominated by evapotranspiration. This regime shift and the rate at which it happened depends on the vegetation encroachment into the rills and the interrill areas. Based on the hypothesis that vegetation will increase surface roughness and infiltration behavior, aerial photos were used to map rills and vegetation within and outside the rills for the last 10 years to obtain a time series of change. Observational evidence clearly shows that vegetation encroaches from the bottom, from the interrill areas as well as from the top. The rills themselves did not change their topology, however, the width of the erosion rills and gully increased at the bottom. For a subcatchment area a high resolution a physical based numerical model of overland flow was developed to explicitly assess the importance of increasing roughness and infiltration capacity for surface runoff. For the purpose of analyzing the effect of rainfall variability a rainfall generator was developed to carry out large sets of simulations. The simulations provide a means to assess how the roughness/infiltration feedback affects the rate of regime shift for a set of parameters that are consistent with the observed hydrological behavior of the drainage network.

Method to characterize directional changes in Arctic sea ice drift and associated deformation due to synoptic atmospheric variations using Lagrangian dispersion statistics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. V. Lukovich

2017-07-01

Full Text Available A framework is developed to assess the directional changes in sea ice drift paths and associated deformation processes in response to atmospheric forcing. The framework is based on Lagrangian statistical analyses leveraging particle dispersion theory which tells us whether ice drift is in a subdiffusive, diffusive, ballistic, or superdiffusive dynamical regime using single-particle (absolute dispersion statistics. In terms of sea ice deformation, the framework uses two- and three-particle dispersion to characterize along- and across-shear transport as well as differential kinematic parameters. The approach is tested with GPS beacons deployed in triplets on sea ice in the southern Beaufort Sea at varying distances from the coastline in fall of 2009 with eight individual events characterized. One transition in particular follows the sea level pressure (SLP high on 8 October in 2009 while the sea ice drift was in a superdiffusive dynamic regime. In this case, the dispersion scaling exponent (which is a slope between single-particle absolute dispersion of sea ice drift and elapsed time changed from superdiffusive (α ∼ 3 to ballistic (α ∼ 2 as the SLP was rounding its maximum pressure value. Following this shift between regimes, there was a loss in synchronicity between sea ice drift and atmospheric motion patterns. While this is only one case study, the outcomes suggest similar studies be conducted on more buoy arrays to test momentum transfer linkages between storms and sea ice responses as a function of dispersion regime states using scaling exponents. The tools and framework developed in this study provide a unique characterization technique to evaluate these states with respect to sea ice processes in general. Application of these techniques can aid ice hazard assessments and weather forecasting in support of marine transportation and indigenous use of near-shore Arctic areas.

Seasonal marine growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in relation to competition with Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscho) and the 1977 ocean regime shift

Science.gov (United States)

Ruggerone, Gregory T.; Farley, Ed; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Hagen, Peter

2005-01-01

Recent research demonstrated significantly lower growth and survival of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) during odd-numbered years of their second or third years at sea (1975, 1977, etc.), a trend that was opposite that of Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) abundance. Here we evaluated seasonal growth trends of Kvichak and Egegik river sockeye salmon (Bristol Bay stocks) during even- and odd-numbered years at sea by measuring scale circuli increments within each growth zone of each major salmon age group between 1955 and 2000. First year scale growth was not significantly different between odd- and even-numbered years, but peak growth of age-2. smolts was significantly higher than age-1 smolts. Total second and third year scale growth of salmon was significantly lower during odd- than during even-numbered years. However, reduced scale growth in odd-numbered years began after peak growth in spring and continued through summer and fall even though most pink salmon had left the high seas by late July (10-18% growth reduction in odd vs. even years). The alternating odd and even year growth pattern was consistent before and after the 1977 ocean regime shift. During 1977-2000, when salmon abundance was relatively great, sockeye salmon growth was high during specific seasons compared with that during 1955-1976, that is to say, immediately after entry to Bristol Bay, after peak growth in the first year, during the middle of the second growing season, and during spring of the third season. Growth after the spring peak in the third year at sea was relatively low during 1977-2000. We hypothesize that high consumption rates of prey by pink salmon during spring through mid-July of odd-numbered years, coupled with declining zooplankton biomass during summer and potentially cyclic abundances of squid and other prey, contributed to reduced prey availability and therefore reduced growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon during late spring through fall of odd-numbered years.

Mass Mortality Events in the NW Adriatic Sea: Phase Shift from Slow- to Fast-Growing Organisms.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina Gioia Di Camillo

Full Text Available Massive outbreaks are increasing all over the world, which are likely related to climate change. The North Adriatic Sea, a sub-basin of the Mediterranean Sea, is a shallow semi-closed sea receiving high nutrients inputs from important rivers. These inputs sustain the highest productive basin of the Mediterranean Sea. Moreover, this area shows a high number of endemisms probably due to the high diversity of environmental conditions and the conspicuous food availability. Here, we documented two massive mortalities (2009 and 2011 and the pattern of recovery of the affected biocoenoses in the next two years. Results show an impressive and fast shift of the benthic assemblage from a biocoenosis mainly composed of slow-growing and long-lived species to a biocoenosis dominated by fast-growing and short-lived species. The sponge Chondrosia reniformis, one of the key species of this assemblage, which had never been involved in previous massive mortality events in the Mediterranean Sea, reduced its coverage by 70%, and only few small specimens survived. All the damaged sponges, together with many associated organisms, were detached by rough-sea conditions, leaving large bare areas on the rocky wall. Almost three years after the disease, the survived specimens of C. reniformis did not increase significantly in size, while the bare areas were colonized by fast-growing species such as stoloniferans, hydrozoans, mussels, algae, serpulids and bryozoans. Cnidarians were more resilient than massive sponges since they quickly recovered in less than one month. In the study area, the last two outbreaks caused a reduction in the filtration efficiency of the local benthic assemblage by over 60%. The analysis of the times series of wave heights and temperature revealed that the conditions in summer 2011 were not so extreme as to justify severe mass mortality, suggesting the occurrence of other factors which triggered the disease. The long-term observations of a

Moderate drop in water table increases peatland vulnerability to post-fire regime shift.

Science.gov (United States)

Kettridge, N; Turetsky, M R; Sherwood, J H; Thompson, D K; Miller, C A; Benscoter, B W; Flannigan, M D; Wotton, B M; Waddington, J M

2015-01-27

Northern and tropical peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reserve accumulated over thousands of years of waterlogged conditions. It is unclear whether moderate drying predicted for northern peatlands will stimulate burning and carbon losses as has occurred in their smaller tropical counterparts where the carbon legacy has been destabilized due to severe drainage and deep peat fires. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland subjected to decadal drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire converted the low productivity, moss-dominated peatland to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy of stored peat carbon.

Bidirectional soliton spectral tunneling effects in the regime of optical event horizon

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gu, Jie; Guo, Hairun; Wang, Shaofei

2015-01-01

We study the cross-phase-modulation-induced soliton spectral shifting in the regime of the optical event horizon. The perturbed soliton to either red-shifting or blue-shifting is controllable, which could evoke bidirectional soliton spectral tunneling effects.......We study the cross-phase-modulation-induced soliton spectral shifting in the regime of the optical event horizon. The perturbed soliton to either red-shifting or blue-shifting is controllable, which could evoke bidirectional soliton spectral tunneling effects....

High- and low-latitude forcing of the Nile River regime during the Holocene inferred from laminated sediments of the Nile deep-sea fan

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Blanchet, C.; Tjallingii, R.; Frank, M.; Lorenzen, J.; Reitz, A.; Brown, K.; Feseker, T.; Brückmann, W.

2013-01-01

Sediments deposited on deep-sea fans are an excellent geological archive to reconstruct past changes in fluvial discharge. Here we present a reconstruction of changes in the regime of the Nile River during the Holocene obtained using bulk elemental composition, grain-size analyses and radiogenic

Resilience of the Nexus of Competitive Water Consumption between Human Society and Environment Development: Regime Shifts and Early Warning Signals

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Z.; Liu, P.; Feng, M.; Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

Based on the modeling of the water supply, power generation and environment (WPE) nexus by Feng et al. (2016), a refined theoretical model of competitive water consumption between human society and environment has been presented in this study, examining the role of technology advancement and social environmental awareness growth-induced pollution mitigation to the environment as a mechanism for the establishment and maintenance of the coexistence of both higher social water consumption and improved environment condition. By coupling environmental and social dynamics, both of which are represented by water consumption quantity, this study shows the possibility of sustainable situation of the social-environmental system when the benefit of technology offsets the side effect (pollution) of social development to the environment. Additionally, regime shifts could be triggered by gradually increased pollution rate, climate change-induced natural resources reduction and breakdown of the social environmental awareness. Therefore, in order to foresee the pending abrupt regime shifts of the system, early warning signals, including increasing variance and autocorrelation, have been examined when the system is undergoing stochastic disturbance. ADDIN EN.REFLIST Feng, M. et al., 2016. Modeling the nexus across water supply, power generation and environment systems using the system dynamics approach: Hehuang Region, China. J. Hydrol., 543: 344-359.

Low-frequency variability in North Sea and Baltic Sea identified through simulations with the 3-D coupled physical–biogeochemical model ECOSMO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

U. Daewel

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Here we present results from a long-term model simulation of the 3-D coupled ecosystem model ECOSMO II for a North Sea and Baltic Sea set-up. The model allows both multi-decadal hindcast simulation of the marine system and specific process studies under controlled environmental conditions. Model results have been analysed with respect to long-term multi-decadal variability in both physical and biological parameters with the help of empirical orthogonal function (EOF analysis. The analysis of a 61-year (1948–2008 hindcast reveals a quasi-decadal variation in salinity, temperature and current fields in the North Sea in addition to singular events of major changes during restricted time frames. These changes in hydrodynamic variables were found to be associated with changes in ecosystem productivity that are temporally aligned with the timing of reported regime shifts in the areas. Our results clearly indicate that for analysing ecosystem productivity, spatially explicit methods are indispensable. Especially in the North Sea, a correlation analysis between atmospheric forcing and primary production (PP reveals significant correlations between PP and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO and wind forcing for the central part of the region, while the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO and air temperature are correlated to long-term changes in PP in the southern North Sea frontal areas. Since correlations cannot serve to identify causal relationship, we performed scenario model runs perturbing the temporal variability in forcing condition to emphasize specifically the role of solar radiation, wind and eutrophication. The results revealed that, although all parameters are relevant for the magnitude of PP in the North Sea and Baltic Sea, the dominant impact on long-term variability and major shifts in ecosystem productivity was introduced by modulations of the wind fields.

The 3000-4000 cal. BP anthropogenic shift in fire regime in the French Pyrenees.

Science.gov (United States)

Rius, D.; Vannière, B.; Galop, D.; Richard, H.

2009-04-01

Fire is a key disturbing agent in a wide range of ecosystems: boreal biome (Pitkanen, 2000), Mediterranean area (Colombaroli et al., 2008) as well as temperate European mountain zones (Tinner et al., 1999). During the Holocene, climate may control fire regime by both ignition and fire spread-favouring conditions (i.e. composition, structure and moisture of biomass) whereas man may change charcoal accumulation patterns through type and intensity of agro-pastoral activities. In western and Mediterranean Europe, single sites charcoal analysis recorded the anthropogenic forcing over fire regime broadly between the mid and the late-Holocene. Turner et al (2008) showed that climate and fire had been disconnected since 1700 cal. BP in Turkey. In central Swiss, Mean Fire Interval decreased by two times 2000 years ago due to increasing human impact (Stahli et al., 2006). In Italy, climate and man have had a combined influence on fire-hazard since ca 4000 cal. BP (Vannière et al., 2008). In the Pyrenees Mountains, the linkage between agro-pastoral practices and fire could be dated back to ca 4000-3000 cal. BP with a clear succession of a clearance phase (high fire frequency) followed by a quite linear trend throughout Middle Ages and Modern times corresponding to a change in fire use (Vanniere et al., 2001; Galop et al., 2002, Rius et al., in press). The quantification of fire regimes parameters such as frequency with robust methodological tools (Inferred Fire Frequency, Mean Fire Interval) is needed to understand and characterise such shifts. Here we present two sequences from the Lourdes basin (col d'Ech peat bog) and from the occidental Pyrenees (Gabarn peat bog), which cover the last 9000 years with high temporal resolution. The main goals of this study were to (1) assess control factors of fire regime throughout the lateglacial and Holocene (climate and/or man) on the local scale, (2) evidence the local/regional significance of these control factors , (3) discuss the

Regime shifts in mean-variance efficient frontiers: some international evidence

OpenAIRE

Massimo Guidolin; Federica Ria

2010-01-01

Regime switching models have been assuming a central role in financial applications because of their well-known ability to capture the presence of rich non-linear patterns in the joint distribution of asset returns. This paper examines how the presence of regimes in means, variances, and correlations of asset returns translates into explicit dynamics of the Markowitz mean-variance frontier. In particular, the paper shows both theoretically and through an application to international equity po...

The influence of different dietary energy content and feeding regimes on growth and feed utilization of European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax, L.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pier Paolo Gatta

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The growing importance of European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax in aquaculture underlines the need to optimize the feeding strategy for this fish species. The aim of the present study was to assess the effect of dietary energy content and feeding regime on growth performance, feed uti- lization and feeding costs for European sea bass. Seven hundreds and forthyfourfish(averageinitial forthyfourfish(averageinitial four fish ( average initial body weight 68g were randomly allocated into twelve tanks 800 l in a closed recirculation system (water temperature: 22°C; dissolved oxygen ≥90% of saturation. Three isoproteic (47% crude protein extruded diets were formulated with different lipid levels i.e. 16% (diet D16, 24% (diet D24 and 32% (diet D32 and each diet was fed at two different feeding regimes (satiation and 80% satiation accord- ing to a bifactorial experimental design. Feed intake (FI was recorded daily. After 77 days, fish were bulk weighed and growth, SGR and FCR were calculated. Feedingregimesaffectedall theanalysed Feeding regimes affected all the analysed parameters (P<0.05, whereas diet influenced only FCR, FI, protein and lipid intake and the economic efficiency ratio (EER. Fish fed the lowest energy content diet (D16 to satiation resulted in the highest feed intake, a FCR similar to that of fish fed diets D24 and D32 and in the lowest EER.

Mid- to late Holocene climate-driven regime shifts inferred from diatom, ostracod and stable isotope records from Lake Son Kol (Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

Science.gov (United States)

Schwarz, Anja; Turner, Falko; Lauterbach, Stefan; Plessen, Birgit; Krahn, Kim J.; Glodniok, Sven; Mischke, Steffen; Stebich, Martina; Witt, Roman; Mingram, Jens; Schwalb, Antje

2017-12-01

Arid Central Asia represents a key region for understanding climate variability and interactions in the Northern Hemisphere. Patterns and mechanisms of Holocene climate change in arid Central Asia are, however, only partially understood. Multi-proxy data combining diatom, ostracod, sedimentological, geochemical and stable isotope analyses from a ca. 6000-year-old lake sediment core from Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) show distinct and repeated changes in species assemblages. Diatom- and ostracod-inferred conductivity shifts between meso-euhaline and freshwater conditions suggest water balance and regime shifts. Organism-derived data are corroborated by stable isotope, mineralogical and geochemical records, underlining that Son Kol was affected by strong lake level fluctuations of several meters. The δ13Ccarb/δ18Ocarb correlation shows repeated switchovers from a closed to an open lake system. From 6000 to 3800 and 3250 to 1950 cal. yr BP, Son Kol was a closed basin lake with higher conductivities, increased nutrient availability and a water level located below the modern outflow. Son Kol became again a hydrologically open lake at 3800 and 1950 cal. yr BP. Comparisons to other local and regional paleoclimate records indicate that these regime shifts were largely controlled by changing intensity and position of the Westerlies and the Siberian Anticyclone that triggered changes in the amount of winter precipitation. A strong influence of the Westerlies ca. 5000-4400, 3800-3250 and since 1950 cal. yr BP enhanced the amount of precipitation during spring, autumn and winter, whereas cold and dry winters prevailed during phases with a strong Siberian Anticyclone and southward shifted Westerlies at ca. 6000-5000, 4400-3800 and 3250-1950 cal. yr BP. Similarities between variations in winter precipitation at Son Kol and records of the predominant NAO-mode further suggest a teleconnection between wet (dry) winter climate in Central Asia and a positive (negative) NAO

Meteorological conditions in a thinner Arctic sea ice regime from winter to summer during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice expedition (N-ICE2015)

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Lana; Hudson, Stephen R.; Walden, Von P.; Graham, Robert M.; Granskog, Mats A.

2017-07-01

Atmospheric measurements were made over Arctic sea ice north of Svalbard from winter to early summer (January-June) 2015 during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice (N-ICE2015) expedition. These measurements, which are available publicly, represent a comprehensive meteorological data set covering the seasonal transition in the Arctic Basin over the new, thinner sea ice regime. Winter was characterized by a succession of storms that produced short-lived (less than 48 h) temperature increases of 20 to 30 K at the surface. These storms were driven by the hemispheric scale circulation pattern with a large meridional component of the polar jet stream steering North Atlantic storms into the high Arctic. Nonstorm periods during winter were characterized by strong surface temperature inversions due to strong radiative cooling ("radiatively clear state"). The strength and depth of these inversions were similar to those during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) campaign. In contrast, atmospheric profiles during the "opaquely cloudy state" were different to those from SHEBA due to differences in the synoptic conditions and location within the ice pack. Storm events observed during spring/summer were the result of synoptic systems located in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Basin rather than passing directly over N-ICE2015. These synoptic systems were driven by a large-scale circulation pattern typical of recent years, with an Arctic Dipole pattern developing during June. Surface temperatures became near-constant 0°C on 1 June marking the beginning of summer. Atmospheric profiles during the spring and early summer show persistent lifted temperature and moisture inversions that are indicative of clouds and cloud processes.

Decadal Shift in West China Autumn Precipitation and its Association With Sea Surface Temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Ting; He, Shengping; Yan, Qing; Dong, Wenjie; Wen, Xiaohang

2018-01-01

West China autumn precipitation (WCAP) is the final stage of the rainy season in mainland China and is characterized as the secondary peak in annual cycle of precipitation in West China. This study reveals that WCAP experienced a significant interdecadal shift around the mid-1980s, with greatly reduced precipitation after this shift. Features related to the decrease in WCAP include the weakening of warm, wet southerlies prevailing from the oceans to inland China, the weakened Eurasian pattern, and the southward displacement of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS). Further analysis indicates that the interdecadal changes in WCAP may be attributed to the interdecadal increasing of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indo-Pacific warm pool (SSTIOP), North Pacific (SSTNP), and central equatorial Pacific (SSTCEP) after the 1980s. The warmer SSTIOP contributes to a weaker meridional land-sea thermal contrast, which inducts an anomalous local meridional circulation and northerly. The warmer SSTNP stimulates a Rossby wave train that leads to weakened West Pacific subtropical high and accompanying cyclonic circulation anomaly, hindering the transport of water vapor inland from the oceans. The increased SSTCEP leads to the southward displacement of the EAJS and its secondary circulation, generating an anomalous descending branch and reduced WCAP. Numerical simulations further support the conclusions derived from the diagnostic analysis that the decadal warming of the SSTIOP, SSTNP, and SSTCEP synergistically contributes to the reduction of WCAP after the 1980s.

Shifts in Ross Sea food web structure as indicated by δ15N and δ13C values of fossil Antarctic seals

Science.gov (United States)

Leopold, A.; Brault, E.; McMahon, K.

2013-12-01

As climate change continues to mount, there is a growing need for understanding its effects on biological-physical interactions of marine ecosystems. Assessing the effects of anthropogenic activities on the coastal marine ecosystem involves understanding the underlying mechanisms driving these changes as well as establishing baselines of the natural system. Preliminary findings have indicated shifts in bulk carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) isotopic values of southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) samples, collected in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica in the Ross Sea region, over approximately the last 7,000 years. These shifts could result from 1) seals changing their foraging location and/or diet over this time, 2) climate change-induced shifts in the biogeochemistry at the base of the food web, or 3) some combination of both processes. We explored the patterns of long-term change in Ross Sea food web structure by examining the stable isotope values of three top predators in this system, Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii), leopard seals (Hydrurga leptonyx), and crabeater seals (Lobodon carcinophagus). Fossil seal samples were collected in the Dry Valleys during the austral summer of 2012/13 and then analyzed for bulk C and N isotopes via an elemental analyzer/isotope-ratio mass spectrometer (EA/IRMS). Our initial findings indicate that C isotopic values of fossil seal samples from Weddell, leopard, and crabeater seals were more enriched than isotopic values of modern seals of the same species (e.g., δ13C = -22.79 × 0.92 ‰ and -26.71 × 0.50 ‰ for fossil and modern crabeater seals, respectively). Given the relatively consistent diet of crabeater seals, these findings suggest a shift in baseline food web structure occurred over the last 10,000 years, either through changes in foraging location or local shifts in biogeochemistry. For all species, N isotopic values are widely variable (e.g., 7.28 to 16.0 δ15N ‰ for the Weddell seal), which may be a result of

Air-sea exchanges of materials in the Indian Ocean: Concerns and strategies

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

DileepKumar, M.

biological production is entirely due to leakage of agricultural effluents into coastal waters, as the present knowledge on the seasonal variability of nutrients and biological production in waters along the Indian coast is still limited. If this theory... to gaseous CO2 with minor reduction in pH. The gaseous CO2 in seawater determines the extent of air-sea exchange. But small changes in temperature or pH can modify gaseous CO2 content in seawater. Thus shifts in physico- chemical and biological regimes...

Climate change and ice hazards in the Beaufort Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barber, D. G.; McCullough, G.; Babb, D.

2014-01-01

Recent reductions in the summer extent of sea ice have focused the world’s attention on the effects of climate change. Increased CO2-derived global warming is rapidly shrinking the Arctic multi-year ice pack. This shift in ice regimes allows for increasing development opportunities for large oil...... will be a much more complex task than modeling average ice circulation. Given the observed reduction in sea ice extent and thickness this rather counterintuitive situation, associated with a warming climate, poses significant hazards to Arctic marine oil and gas development and marine transportation. Accurate...... forecasting of hazardous ice motion will require improved real-time surface wind and ocean current forecast models capable of ingesting local satellite-derived wind data and/or local, closely-spaced networks of anemometers and improved methods of determining high-frequency components of surface ocean current...

Identificando mudanças de regimes sistêmicos em processos econômicos: um procedimento baseado na abordagem de dinâmica de sistemas Identifying systemic regime shifts in economic processes: a procedure based on the system dynamics approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Newton Paulo Bueno

2013-04-01

Full Text Available A tese deste trabalho é que as técnicas mais sofisticadas atualmente utilizadas pelos economistas para fazer previsões (métodos não estruturais de previsão, em geral, e modelos de detecção de mudanças de regime, em particular não parecem realmente muito eficazes em prever mudanças radicais de regime como a que ocorreu na economia mundial recentemente. Assim, para aumentar seu grau de acurácia, parece razoável imaginar que tais técnicas devam ser complementadas por abordagens mais holísticas. O objetivo geral deste trabalho é mostrar que a metodologia de dinâmica de sistemas (system dynamics, que permite identificar os ciclos de feedback que comandam a dinâmica de sistemas complexos, parece estar especialmente bem-equipada para se tornar uma dessas abordagens complementares. Pretende-se, especificamente, apresentar um algoritmo sistêmico para identificar processos de mudança de regime como os que ocorrem quando uma economia, após anos de expansão continuada, sofre os efeitos da explosão de uma bolha financeira, como ocorreu recentemente.This paper argues that the sophisticated techniques presently used by economists to forecast macroeconomic variables behavior (non-structural forecasting methods, in general, and regime-switching models, in particular do not seem much effective for anticipating radical regime shifts as recently happened in the world economy. Thus, in order to improve their accuracy, it seems that they should be complemented by more holistic approaches. The general purpose of the paper is to show that the system dynamics methodology, which allows identifying the critical feedback loops that drive complex systems' dynamics, seems to be especially fitted to be one of those complementary approaches. To reach that goal, we present a systemic algorithm which allows identifying regime shift processes as the ones that take place when an economy is hit by the effects of a financial bubble burst.

Impacts of extratropical storm tracks on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Jianfen; Zhang, Xiangdong; Wang, Zhaomin

2018-05-01

Studies have indicated regime shifts in atmospheric circulation, and associated changes in extratropical storm tracks and Arctic storm activity, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and cyclone activity on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait by using a high resolution global ocean-sea ice model, MITgcm-ECCO2. The model was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter (in this study winter is defined as October-March and summer as April-September) storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social ...

Science.gov (United States)

In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises,

Filling regulatory gaps in high seas fisheries: discrete high seas fish stocks, deep-sea fisheries and vulnerable marine ecosystems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Takei, Y.

2008-01-01

The present study examines the legal regime of high seas fisheries with a view to identifying regulatory gaps. The main research questions are as follows: 1. What general principles are applicable to high seas fisheries?; 2. What implications do these general principles have for new challenges in

Regime-switching stochastic volatility. Evidence from the crude oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vo, Minh T.

2009-01-01

This paper incorporates regime-switching into the stochastic volatility (SV) framework in an attempt to explain the behavior of crude oil prices in order to forecast their volatility. More specifically, it models the volatility of oil return as a stochastic volatility process whose mean is subject to shifts in regime. The shift is governed by a two-state first-order Markov process. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used to estimate the models. The main findings are: first, there is clear evidence of regime-switching in the oil market. Ignoring it will lead to a false impression that the volatility is highly persistent and therefore highly predictable. Second, incorporating regime-switching into the SV framework significantly enhances the forecasting power of the SV model. Third, the regime-switching stochastic volatility model does a good job in capturing major events affecting the oil market. (author)

Projected Regime Shift in Arctic Cloud and Water Vapor Feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yonghua; Miller, James R.; Francis, Jennifer; Russel, Gary L.

2011-01-01

The Arctic climate is changing faster than any other large-scale region on Earth. A variety of positive feedback mechanisms are responsible for the amplification, most of which are linked with changes in snow and ice cover, surface temperature (T(sub s)), atmospheric water vapor (WV), and cloud properties. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, air temperature and water vapor content also increase, leading to a warmer surface and ice loss, which further enhance evaporation and WV. Many details of these interrelated feedbacks are poorly understood, yet are essential for understanding the pace and regional variations in future Arctic change. We use a global climate model (Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Atmosphere-Ocean Model) to examine several components of these feedbacks, how they vary by season, and how they are projected to change through the 21st century. One positive feedback begins with an increase in T(sub s) that produces an increase in WV, which in turn increases the downward longwave flux (DLF) and T(sub s), leading to further evaporation. Another associates the expected increases in cloud cover and optical thickness with increasing DLF and T(sub s). We examine the sensitivities between DLF and other climate variables in these feedbacks and find that they are strongest in the non-summer seasons, leading to the largest amplification in Ts during these months. Later in the 21st century, however, DLF becomes less sensitive to changes in WV and cloud optical thickness, as they cause the atmosphere to emit longwave radiation more nearly as a black body. This regime shift in sensitivity implies that the amplified pace of Arctic change relative to the northern hemisphere could relax in the future.

From success to persistence: Identifying an evolutionary regime shift in the diverse Paleozoic aquatic arthropod group Eurypterida, driven by the Devonian biotic crisis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lamsdell, James C; Selden, Paul A

2017-01-01

Mass extinctions have altered the trajectory of evolution a number of times over the Phanerozoic. During these periods of biotic upheaval a different selective regime appears to operate, although it is still unclear whether consistent survivorship rules apply across different extinction events. We compare variations in diversity and disparity across the evolutionary history of a major Paleozoic arthropod group, the Eurypterida. Using these data, we explore the group's transition from a successful, dynamic clade to a stagnant persistent lineage, pinpointing the Devonian as the period during which this evolutionary regime shift occurred. The late Devonian biotic crisis is potentially unique among the "Big Five" mass extinctions in exhibiting a drop in speciation rates rather than an increase in extinction. Our study reveals eurypterids show depressed speciation rates throughout the Devonian but no abnormal peaks in extinction. Loss of morphospace occupation is random across all Paleozoic extinction events; however, differential origination during the Devonian results in a migration and subsequent stagnation of occupied morphospace. This shift appears linked to an ecological transition from euryhaline taxa to freshwater species with low morphological diversity alongside a decrease in endemism. These results demonstrate the importance of the Devonian biotic crisis in reshaping Paleozoic ecosystems. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Regime shift by an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub mediates plant facilitation in primary succession.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adriano Stinca

Full Text Available Ecosystem invasion by non-native, nitrogen-fixing species is a global phenomenon with serious ecological consequences. However, in the Mediterranean basin few studies addressed the impact of invasion by nitrogen-fixing shrubs on soil quality and hydrological properties at local scale, and the possible effects on succession dynamics and ecosystem invasibility by further species. In this multidisciplinary study we investigated the impact of Genista aetnensis (Biv. DC., an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub, on the Vesuvius Grand Cone (Southern Italy. Specifically, we tested the hypotheses that the invasion of G. aetnensis has a significant impact on soil quality, soil hydrological regime, local microclimate and plant community structure, and that its impact increases during the plant ontogenetic cycle. We showed that G. aetnensis, in a relatively short time-span (i.e. ~ 40 years, has been able to build-up an island of fertility under its canopy, by accumulating considerable stocks of C, N, and P in the soil, and by also improving the soil hydrological properties. Moreover, G. aetnensis mitigates the daily range of soil temperature, reducing the exposure of coexisting plants to extremely high temperatures and water loss by soil evaporation, particularly during the growing season. Such amelioration of soil quality, coupled with the mitigation of below-canopy microclimatic conditions, has enhanced plant colonization of the barren Grand Cone slopes, by both herbaceous and woody species. These results suggest that the invasion of G. aetnensis could eventually drive to the spread of other, more resource-demanding exotic species, promoting alternative successional trajectories that may dramatically affect the local landscape. Our study is the first record of the invasion of G. aetnensis, an additional example of the regime shifts driven by N-fixing shrubs in Mediterranean region. Further studies are needed to identity specific management practices that can

Effects of lead structure in Bering Sea pack ice on the flight costs of wintering spectacled eiders

Science.gov (United States)

Bump, Joseph K.; Lovvorn, James R.

2004-10-01

In polar regions, sea ice is critical habitat for many marine birds and mammals. The quality of pack ice habitat depends on the duration and spacing of leads (openings in the ice), which determine access to water and air for diving endotherms, and how often and how far they must move as leads open and close. Recent warming trends have caused major changes in the extent and nature of sea ice at large scales used in climate models. However, no studies have analyzed lead structure in terms of habitat for ice-dependent endotherms, or effects of climate on ice habitat at scales relevant to their daily movements. Based on observations from an icebreaker and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images, we developed methods to describe the dynamics and thermodynamics of lead structure relative to use by spectacled eiders ( Somateria fischeri) wintering in pack ice of the Bering Sea. By correlating lead structure with weather variables, we then used these methods to estimate changes in lead dynamics from 1945 to 2002, and effects of such changes on flight costs of the eiders. For 1991-1992, when images were available about every 3 days throughout winter, SAR images were divided among five weather regimes defined by wind speed, wind direction, and air temperature. Based on 12.5-m pixels, lead shape, compass orientation, and fetch across leads did not differ among the weather regimes. However, the five regimes differed in total area of open water, leads per unit area, and distance between leads. Lead duration was modeled based on air temperature, wind, and fetch. Estimates of mean daily flight time for eiders, based on lead duration and distance between neighboring leads, differed among regimes by 0 to 15 min. Resulting flight costs varied from 0 to 158 kJ day -1, or from 0% to 11% of estimated field metabolic rate. Over 57 winters (1945-2002), variation among years in mean daily flight time was most influenced by the north-south wind component, which determined pack divergence

How do copper contamination pulses shape the regime shifts of phytoplankton-zooplankton dynamics?

Science.gov (United States)

Camara, B. I.; Yamapi, R.; Mokrani, H.

2017-07-01

The presence of pollutants in waters, particularly from heavy metals, is of grave concern worldwide due to its cytotoxicity to organisms. Fish and aquatic organisms are very sensitive to the increasing Cu concentrations in water. Therefore, Cu toxicity partly depends on water quality. To address the effects of impulsive copper contamination of the phytoplankton-zooplankton population dynamics, we've built a model that focuses on the interaction between algae and Daphnia with deterministic and stochastic impulse copper. In fact the Results have shown three types of outcomes depending on copper concentration. In low (4.4 μgL-1) copper concentration, deterministic and stochastic pulses may promote the persistence of Daphnia and algae populations unlike the absence of pulses. Whereas, in high (28 μgL-1) concentration, it accelerates deficiency and toxicity processes, leads to the extinction of all populations and in intermediate concentrations. Deterministic and stochastic pulses may transform population dynamics in complex oscillations. Numerical results show that the system that has been considered has more complex dynamics including bifurcation, period-doubling oscillations and chaos. Depending on minimum copper concentration in the environment, the bifurcation diagram has highlighted the resilience or the regime shifts of the system in occurrence of pulse contamination.

Increasing sea surface temperature and range shifts of intertidal gastropods along the Iberian Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Rubal, Marcos; Veiga, Puri; Cacabelos, Eva; Moreira, Juan; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel

2013-03-01

There are well-documented changes in abundance and geographical range of intertidal invertebrates related to climate change at north Europe. However, the effect of sea surface warming on intertidal invertebrates has been poorly studied at lower latitudes. Here we analyze potential changes in the abundance patterns and distribution range of rocky intertidal gastropods related to climate change along the Iberian Peninsula. To achieve this aim, the spatial distribution and range of sub-tropical, warm- and cold-water species of intertidal gastropods was explored by a fully hierarchical sampling design considering four different spatial scales, i.e. from region (100 s of km apart) to quadrats (ms apart). Variability on their patterns of abundance was explored by analysis of variance, changes on their distribution ranges were detected by comparing with previous records and their relationship with sea water temperature was explored by rank correlation analyses. Mean values of sea surface temperature along the Iberian coast, between 1949 and 2010, were obtained from in situ data compiled for three different grid squares: south Portugal, north Portugal, and Galicia. Lusitanian species did not show significant correlation with sea water temperature or changes on their distributional range or abundance, along the temperature gradient considered. The sub-tropical species Siphonaria pectinata has, however, increased its distribution range while boreal cold-water species showed the opposite pattern. The latter was more evident for Littorina littorea that was almost absent from the studied rocky shores of the Iberian Peninsula. Sub-tropical and boreal species showed significant but opposite correlation with sea water temperature. We hypothesized that the energetic cost of frequent exposures to sub-lethal temperatures might be responsible for these shifts. Therefore, intertidal gastropods at the Atlantic Iberian Peninsula coast are responding to the effect of global warming as it

Improved measurements of mean sea surface velocity in the Nordic Seas from synthetic aperture radar

Science.gov (United States)

Wergeland Hansen, Morten; Johnsen, Harald; Engen, Geir; Øie Nilsen, Jan Even

2017-04-01

The warm and saline surface Atlantic Water (AW) flowing into the Nordic Seas across the Greenland-Scotland ridge transports heat into the Arctic, maintaining the ice-free oceans and regulating sea-ice extent. The AW influences the region's relatively mild climate and is the northern branch of the global thermohaline overturning circulation. Heat loss in the Norwegian Sea is key for both heat transport and deep water formation. In general, the ocean currents in the Nordic Seas and the North Atlantic Ocean is a complex system of topographically steered barotropic and baroclinic currents of which the wind stress and its variability is a driver of major importance. The synthetic aperture radar (SAR) Doppler centroid shift has been demonstrated to contain geophysical information about sea surface wind, waves and current at an accuracy of 5 Hz and pixel spacing of 3.5 - 9 × 8 km2. This corresponds to a horizontal surface velocity of about 20 cm/s at 35° incidence angle. The ESA Prodex ISAR project aims to implement new and improved SAR Doppler shift processing routines to enable reprocessing of the wide swath acquisitions available from the Envisat ASAR archive (2002-2012) at higher resolution and better accuracy than previously obtained, allowing combined use with Sentinel-1 and Radarsat-2 retrievals to build timeseries of the sea surface velocity in the Nordic Seas. Estimation of the geophysical Doppler shift from new SAR Doppler centroid shift retrievals will be demonstrated, addressing key issues relating to geometric (satellite orbit and attitude) and electronic (antenna mis-pointing) contributions and corrections. Geophysical Doppler shift retrievals from one month of data in January 2010 and the inverted surface velocity in the Nordic Seas are then addressed and compared to other direct and indirect estimates of the upper ocean current, in particular those obtained in the ESA GlobCurrent project.

The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour A regime switching approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania [International Finance Group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia)

2009-09-15

In this paper we develop a two regime Markov-switching EGARCH model introduced by Henry [Henry, O., 2009. Regime switching in the relationship between equity returns and short-term interest rates. Journal of Banking and Finance 33, 405-414.] to examine the relationship between crude oil shocks and stock markets. An application to stock markets of UK, France and Japan over the sample period January 1989 to December 2007 illustrates plausible results. We detect two episodes of series behaviour one relative to low mean/high variance regime and the other to high mean/low variance regime. Furthermore, there is evidence that common recessions coincide with the low mean/high variance regime. In addition, we allow both real stock returns and probability of transitions from one regime to another to depend on the net oil price increase variable. The findings show that rises in oil price has a significant role in determining both the volatility of stock returns and the probability of transition across regimes. (author)

The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour A regime switching approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

2009-01-01

In this paper we develop a two regime Markov-switching EGARCH model introduced by Henry [Henry, O., 2009. Regime switching in the relationship between equity returns and short-term interest rates. Journal of Banking and Finance 33, 405-414.] to examine the relationship between crude oil shocks and stock markets. An application to stock markets of UK, France and Japan over the sample period January 1989 to December 2007 illustrates plausible results. We detect two episodes of series behaviour one relative to low mean/high variance regime and the other to high mean/low variance regime. Furthermore, there is evidence that common recessions coincide with the low mean/high variance regime. In addition, we allow both real stock returns and probability of transitions from one regime to another to depend on the net oil price increase variable. The findings show that rises in oil price has a significant role in determining both the volatility of stock returns and the probability of transition across regimes. (author)

Decadal shifts in autumn migration timing by Pacific Arctic beluga whales are related to delayed annual sea ice formation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hauser, Donna D W; Laidre, Kristin L; Stafford, Kathleen M; Stern, Harry L; Suydam, Robert S; Richard, Pierre R

2017-06-01

Migrations are often influenced by seasonal environmental gradients that are increasingly being altered by climate change. The consequences of rapid changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to affect migrations of a number of marine species whose timing is temporally matched to seasonal sea ice cover. This topic has not been investigated for Pacific Arctic beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) that follow matrilineally maintained autumn migrations in the waters around Alaska and Russia. For the sympatric Eastern Chukchi Sea ('Chukchi') and Eastern Beaufort Sea ('Beaufort') beluga populations, we examined changes in autumn migration timing as related to delayed regional sea ice freeze-up since the 1990s, using two independent data sources (satellite telemetry data and passive acoustics) for both populations. We compared dates of migration between 'early' (1993-2002) and 'late' (2004-2012) tagging periods. During the late tagging period, Chukchi belugas had significantly delayed migrations (by 2 to >4 weeks, depending on location) from the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. Spatial analyses also revealed that departure from Beaufort Sea foraging regions by Chukchi whales was postponed in the late period. Chukchi beluga autumn migration timing occurred significantly later as regional sea ice freeze-up timing became later in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering seas. In contrast, Beaufort belugas did not shift migration timing between periods, nor was migration timing related to freeze-up timing, other than for southward migration at the Bering Strait. Passive acoustic data from 2008 to 2014 provided independent and supplementary support for delayed migration from the Beaufort Sea (4 day yr -1 ) by Chukchi belugas. Here, we report the first phenological study examining beluga whale migrations within the context of their rapidly transforming Pacific Arctic ecosystem, suggesting flexible responses that may enable their persistence yet also complicate predictions of how

Tropospheric characteristics over sea ice during N-ICE2015

Science.gov (United States)

Kayser, Markus; Maturilli, Marion; Graham, Robert; Hudson, Stephen; Cohen, Lana; Rinke, Annette; Kim, Joo-Hong; Park, Sang-Jong; Moon, Woosok; Granskog, Mats

2017-04-01

Over recent years, the Arctic Ocean region has shifted towards a younger and thinner sea-ice regime. The Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition was designed to investigate the atmosphere-snow-ice-ocean interactions in this new ice regime north of Svalbard. Here we analyze upper-air measurements made by radiosondes launched twice daily together with surface meteorology observations during N-ICE2015 from January to June 2015. We study the multiple cyclonic events observed during N-ICE2015 with respect to changes in the vertical thermodynamic structure, sudden increases in moisture content and temperature, temperature inversions and boundary layer dynamics. The influence of synoptic cyclones is strongest under polar night conditions, when radiative cooling is most effective and the moisture content is low. We find that transitions between the radiatively clear and opaque state are the largest drivers of changes to temperature inversion and stability characteristics in the boundary layer during winter. In spring radiative fluxes warm the surface leading to lifted temperature inversions and a statically unstable boundary layer. The unique N-ICE2015 dataset is used for case studies investigating changes in the vertical structure of the atmosphere under varying synoptic conditions. The goal is to deepen our understanding of synoptic interactions within the Arctic climate system, to improve model performance, as well as to identify gaps in instrumentation, which precludes further investigations.

A regime shift in the Sun-Climate connection with the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

Science.gov (United States)

Smirnov, D A; Breitenbach, S F M; Feulner, G; Lechleitner, F A; Prufer, K M; Baldini, J U L; Marwan, N; Kurths, J

2017-09-11

Understanding the influence of changes in solar activity on Earth's climate and distinguishing it from other forcings, such as volcanic activity, remains a major challenge for palaeoclimatology. This problem is best approached by investigating how these variables influenced past climate conditions as recorded in high precision paleoclimate archives. In particular, determining if the climate system response to these forcings changes through time is critical. Here we use the Wiener-Granger causality approach along with well-established cross-correlation analysis to investigate the causal relationship between solar activity, volcanic forcing, and climate as reflected in well-established Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rainfall proxy records from Yok Balum Cave, southern Belize. Our analysis reveals a consistent influence of volcanic activity on regional Central American climate over the last two millennia. However, the coupling between solar variability and local climate varied with time, with a regime shift around 1000-1300 CE after which the solar-climate coupling weakened considerably.

Quantized beam shifts in graphene

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

de Melo Kort-Kamp, Wilton Junior [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sinitsyn, Nikolai [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dalvit, Diego Alejandro Roberto [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2015-10-08

We predict the existence of quantized Imbert-Fedorov, Goos-Hanchen, and photonic spin Hall shifts for light beams impinging on a graphene-on-substrate system in an external magnetic field. In the quantum Hall regime the Imbert-Fedorov and photonic spin Hall shifts are quantized in integer multiples of the fine structure constant α, while the Goos-Hanchen ones in multiples of α². We investigate the influence on these shifts of magnetic field, temperature, and material dispersion and dissipation. An experimental demonstration of quantized beam shifts could be achieved at terahertz frequencies for moderate values of the magnetic field.

Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

Science.gov (United States)

Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

2014-01-01

Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

The performance of the Black Sea Commission as a collaborative governance regime

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Avoyan, Emma; Tatenhove, van J.P.M.; Toonen, H.M.

2017-01-01

It is often claimed that the Black Sea is one of the most degraded seas in the world. Management to rehabilitate the Black Sea requires cooperation between the coastal countries to be successful. However, regional cooperation in the Black Sea is poorly coordinated and lack concrete outcomes. This

Early signatures of regime shifts in complex dynamical systems

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2015-02-05

Feb 5, 2015 ... journal of. February 2015 ... populations, financial markets, complex diseases and gene circuits. ... A recent exhaustive analysis of recorded ecosystem shifts points to an approach- .... The quantitative estimation of these.

North Atlantic atmospheric and ocean inter-annual variability over the past fifty years - Dominant patterns and decadal shifts

Science.gov (United States)

Hauser, Tristan; Demirov, Entcho; Zhu, Jieshun; Yashayaev, Igor

2015-03-01

The atmosphere and ocean of the North Atlantic have undergone significant changes in the past century. To understand these changes, their mechanisms, and their regional implications requires a quantitative understanding of processes in the coupled ocean and atmosphere system. Central to this understanding is the role played by the dominant patterns of ocean and atmospheric variability which define coherent variations in physical characteristics over large areas. Cluster analysis is used in this article to identify the patterns of the North Atlantic atmospheric variability in the subseasonal and interannual spectral intervals. Four dominant subseasonal weather regimes are defined using Bayesian Gaussian mixture models. All correlation patterns of the Sea Level Pressure (SLP) anomalies with the membership probability time series for the weather regimes show similarities with the dipole structure typical for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The SLP patterns of two of the regimes represent the opposite phases NAO+ and NAO-. The two other weather regimes, the Atlantic Ridge (AR) and Scandinavian-Greenland dipole (SG), have dipole spatial structures with the northern and southern centers of action shifted with respect to the NAO pattern. These two patterns define blocking structures over Scandinavia and near the southern tip of Greenland, respectively. The storm tracks typical for the four regimes resemble the well known paths for positive/negative phases of NAO for the NAO+/NAO- weather regimes, and paths influenced by blocking off the south Greenland tip for AR and over Scandinavia for SG. The correlation patterns of momentum and heat fluxes to the ocean for the four regimes have tripole structures with positive (warm) downward heat flux anomalies over the Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) for the NAO- and the AR and negative heat flux anomalies over the SPNA for the NAO+. The downward heat flux anomalies associated with the SG are negative over the Labrador Sea and

Seasonal patterns in growth, blood consumption, and effects on hosts by parasitic-phase sea lampreys in the Great Lakes: an individual-based model approach

Science.gov (United States)

Madenjian, Charles P.; Cochran, Philip A.; Bergstedt, Roger A.

2003-01-01

An individual-based model (IBM) was developed for sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes. The IBM was then calibrated to observed growth, by season, for sea lampreys in northern Lake Huron under two different water temperature regimes: a regime experienced by Seneca-strain lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and a regime experienced by Marquettestrain lake trout. Modeling results indicated that seasonal blood consumption under the Seneca regime was very similar to that under the Marquette regime. Simulated mortality of lake trout directly due to blood removal by sea lampreys occurred at nearly twice the rate during August and September under the Marquette regime than under the Seneca regime. However, cumulative sea lamprey-induced mortality on lake trout over the entire duration of the sea lamprey's parasitic phase was only 7% higher for the Marquette regime compared with the Seneca regime. Thus, these modeling results indicated that the strain composition of the host (lake trout) population was not important in determining total number of lake trout deaths or total blood consumption attributable to the sea lamprey population, given the sea lamprey growth pattern. Regardless of water temperature regime, both blood consumption rate by sea lampreys and rate of sea lamprey-induced mortality on lake trout peaked in late October. Elevated blood consumption in late October appeared to be unrelated to changes in water temperature. The IBM approach should prove useful in optimizing control of sea lampreys in the Laurentian Great Lakes.

Energy Issues As The Trigger Of Formation Of An International Regime Of The Caspian Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. S. Rozhkov

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The research object of the article is a development of the international regime of the Caspian Sea after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and increase in the number of the Caspian Littoral States, which transformed the former “closed” Soviet-Iranian region to the arena for wrangling between the different foreign policy interests of the most powerful world nations. The research subject is the key role of energy resources in the negotiation process between the States of the Caspian Region. The author pays special attention to the evolution of national approaches of the “Caspian Five” to the problem of mineral resources delimitation as well as its connection to negotiations on the draft comprehensive Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea. The article mentions the key benchmarks of the negotiation process, examines the influence of biand multilateral arrangements among Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan during 1998-2003 on the situation in the region. The role of conflicts among Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan over transboundary oil and gas fields in the southern part of the sea as a factor of regional instability as well as its negative influence on the relations between the Caspian Littoral States, in general, are analyzed. The main conclusion of the author is that debates, launched by the Caspian Littoral States on the energy issues in the format of the Special Working Group at the level of Deputy Foreign Ministers, have gradually transformed to the multilateral mechanism for interaction of regional actors and become a trigger for debates on the other issues of the Caspian agenda such as economic, ecological, military, security, transport, tourist cooperation, etc. Taking into account importance and a positive role of four Caspian Summits as well as influence of other factors (separate position of Iran, external forces, environmental risks on the negotiation process, the author underlines the fact that all efforts of

Regime-Based Versus Static Asset Allocation: Letting the Data Speak

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nystrup, Peter; Hansen, Bo William; Madsen, Henrik

2015-01-01

Regime shifts present a big challenge to traditional strategic asset allocation. This article investigates whether regimebased asset allocation can effectively respond to changes in financial regimes at the portfolio level, in an effort to provide better long-term results than more static...... approaches can offer. The authors center their regime-based approach around a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters that can match financial markets’ tendency to change behavior abruptly and the fact that the new behavior often persists for several periods after a change. In an asset universe...

The Two Regimes of Postwar Shipping

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, Martin Jes; Tenold, Stig

2014-01-01

the bargaining that accompanied the shift from the national regime to the competitive regime. Specifically, we show that the new regime primarily accommodated the interests of private actors such as shipping companies, rather than the interests of the authorities and the trade unions.......The aim of this article is to illustrate the most important changes in the regulatory framework of the shipping sector from the 1960s to 2010, and to analyse the basis for, and effects of, these changes. In order to explain how the transformation has occurred, we use two traditional maritime...... nations—Denmark and Norway—as case studies. First, we introduce the two regimes of Danish and Norwegian shipping: ‘the national regime’ from the early 1960s to the mid-1970s; and ‘the competitive regime’, which was fully established by the middle of the 1990s and still persists. Then, we briefly sketch...

Unbounded boundaries and shifting baselines: Estuaries and coastal seas in a rapidly changing world

Science.gov (United States)

Little, S.; Spencer, K. L.; Schuttelaars, H. M.; Millward, G. E.; Elliott, M.

2017-11-01

This Special Issue of Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science presents contributions from ECSA 55; an international symposium organised by the Estuarine and Coastal Sciences Association (ECSA) and Elsevier on the broad theme of estuaries and coastal seas in times of intense change. The objectives of the SI are to synthesise, hypothesise and illustrate the impacts of global change on estuaries and coastal seas through learning lessons from the past, discussing the current and forecasting for the future. It is highlighted here that establishing impacts and assigning cause to the many pressures of global change is and will continue to be a formidable challenge in estuaries and coastal seas, due in part to: (1) their complexity and unbounded nature; (2) difficulties distinguishing between human-induced changes and natural variations and; (3) multiple pressures and effects. The contributing authors have explored a number of these issues over a range of disciplines. The complexity and connectivity of estuaries and coastal seas have been investigated through studies of physicochemical and ecological components, whilst the human imprint on the environment has been identified through a series of predictive, contemporary, historical and palaeo approaches. The impact of human activities has been shown to occur over a range of spatial and temporal scales, requiring the development of integrated management approaches. These 30 articles provide an important contribution to our understanding and assessment of the impacts of global change. The authors highlight methods for essential management/mitigation of the consequences of global change and provide a set of directions, ideas and observations for future work. These include the need to consider: (1) the cumulative, synergistic and antagonistic effects of multiple pressures; (2) the importance of unbounded boundaries and connectivity across the aquatic continuum; (3) the value of combining cross-disciplinary palaeo, contemporary and

Modal recovery of sea-level variability in the South China Sea using merged altimeter data

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Haoyu; Chen, Ge

2015-09-01

Using 20 years (1993-2012) of merged data recorded by contemporary multi-altimeter missions, a variety of sea-level variability modes are recovered in the South China Sea employing three-dimensional harmonic extraction. In terms of the long-term variation, the South China Sea is estimated to have a rising sea-level linear trend of 5.39 mm/a over these 20 years. Among the modes extracted, the seven most statistically significant periodic or quasi-periodic modes are identified as principal modes. The geographical distributions of the magnitudes and phases of the modes are displayed. In terms of intraannual and annual regimes, two principal modes with strict semiannual and annual periods are found, with the annual variability having the largest amplitudes among the seven modes. For interannual and decadal regimes, five principal modes at approximately 18, 21, 23, 28, and 112 months are found with the most mode-active region being to the east of Vietnam. For the phase distributions, a series of amphidromes are observed as twins, termed "amphidrome twins", comprising rotating dipole systems. The stability of periodic modes is investigated employing joint spatiotemporal analysis of latitude/longitude sections. Results show that all periodic modes are robust, revealing the richness and complexity of sea-level modes in the South China Sea.

What is the New Chinese Currency Regime?

OpenAIRE

Shah, Ajay; Zeileis, Achim; Patnaik, Ila

2005-01-01

The revaluation of the yuan in July 2005 was described by the Chinese central bank as a change in the currency regime, rather than merely a changed level of the exchange rate. The reform was said to involve a shift away from the fixed exchange rate, a gradual movement towards greater flexibility, and a peg to a basket of currencies. This paper closely examines the post-July Chinese currency regime utilising contemporary ideas in the econometrics of structural change. We find that the yuan has...

Regime-switching models to study psychological process

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hamaker, E.L.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.; Kamphuis, J.H.

2010-01-01

Many psychological processes are characterized by recurrent shifts between different states. To model these processes at the level of the individual, regime-switching models may prove useful. In this chapter we discuss two of these models: the threshold autoregressive model and the Markov

Community variability and ecological functioning: 40 years of change in the North Sea benthos.

Science.gov (United States)

Clare, D S; Robinson, L A; Frid, C L J

2015-06-01

Using established associations between species traits (life history, morphological and behavioural characteristics) and key ecological functions, we applied biological traits analysis (BTA) to investigate the consequences of 40 years of change in two North Sea benthic communities. Ecological functioning (trait composition) was found to be statistically indistinguishable across periods that differed significantly in taxonomic composition. A temporary alteration to functioning was, however, inferred at both sampling stations; coinciding with the North Sea regime shift of the 1980s. Trait composition recovered after 1 year at the station located inside the grounds of a trawl fishery, whereas the station located outside the main area of fishing activity underwent a six-year period of significantly altered, and temporally unstable, trait composition. A further alteration to functioning was inferred at the fished station, when the population of a newly established species rapidly increased in numbers. The results suggest that density compensation by characteristically similar (redundant) taxa acts to buffer changes to ecological functioning over time, but that functional stability is subject to aperiodic disruption due to substitutions of dissimilar taxa or uncompensated population fluctuations. The rate at which ecological functioning stabilises and recovers appears to be dependent on environmental context; e.g. disturbance regime. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Amino acid stable isotope applications to deep-sea corals: A molecular geochemistry approach to reconstructing past ocean conditions

Science.gov (United States)

McMahon, K.; McCarthy, M. D.; Guilderson, T. P.; Sherwood, O.; Williams, B.; Larsen, T.; Glynn, D. S.

2017-12-01

Future climate change is predicted to alter ocean productivity, food web dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, and the efficacy of the biological pump. Proteinaceous deep-sea corals act as "living sediment traps," providing long-term, high-resolution records of exported surface ocean production and a window into past changes in ocean condition as a historical context for potential future changes. Here, we present recent work developing the application of compound-specific stable isotope analysis of individual amino acids to proteinaceous deep-sea corals to reconstruct past changes in phytoplankton community composition and biogeochemical cycling. We present new calibrations for molecular isotope comparisons between metabolically active coral polyp tissue and bioarchival proteinaceous skeleton. We then applied these techniques to deep-sea corals from the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) to reconstruct centennial to millennial time scale changes in phytoplankton community composition and biogeochemical cycling as a function of regional climate change. This work suggests that the NPSG has undergone multiple major phytoplankton regime shifts over the last millennium between prokaryotic and eukaryotic phytoplankton communities and associated sources of nitrogen fueling production. The most recent regime, which started around the end of the Little Ice Age and the onset of the Industrial era, is unprecedented in the last 1000 years and resulted in a 30-50% increase in diazotrophic cyanobacteria contribution to export production and an associated 17-27% increase in N2-fixation in the NPSG over last century. By offering the first direct phylogenetic context for long-term shifts in isotopic records of exported particulate organic matter, our data represent a major step forward in understanding the evolution of marine plankton community dynamics, food web architecture, biogeochemical cycling, and the climate feedback loops through the biological pump.

Cod reproductive ecology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Røjbek, Maria

In recent decades, Baltic cod has experienced a period of low recruitment. In the same period the pelagic Baltic Sea ecosystem experienced a regime shift, due to hydrographic changes, affecting all trophic levels. The rationale for the thesis is built on the hypothesis that the regime shift has r...

Synoptic conditions of fine-particle transport to the last interglacial Red Sea -Dead Sea from Nd-Sr compositions of sediment cores

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, M.; Palchan, D.; Goldstein, S. L.; Almogi-Labin, A.; Tirosh, O.; Erel, Y.

2017-12-01

The last interglacial peak, Marine Isotope Stage 5e (MIS 5e), was associated with stronger northern hemisphere insolation, higher global sea levels and higher average global temperatures compared to the Holocene, and is considered as an analogue for a future warming world. In this perspective the present-day areas of the Sahara - Arabia deserts (the "desert belt") are of special interest since their margins are densely inhabited and global climate models predict enhanced aridity in these regions due to future warming. The Red Sea situated at the midst of the desert belt and the Dead Sea at the northern fringe of the desert belt comprise sensitive monitors for past hydroclimate changes in the Red Sea-Levant regions as global climate shifted from glacial to interglacial conditions. Here, we reconstruct the synoptic conditions that controlled desert dust transport to the Red Sea and the Dead Sea during MIS5e. The reconstruction is based on Nd-Sr isotopes and chemical composition of carbonate-free detritus recovered from sediment cores drilled at the deep floors of these water-bodies combined with data of contemporaneous dust storms transporting dust to the lake and sea floors. During Termination 2 ( 134-130 ka) the Sahara, Nile River desiccated and the Dead Sea watershed were under extreme dry conditions manifested by lake level drop, deposition of salt and enhanced transport of Sahara dusts to the entire studied transect. At the peak of the interglacial MIS 5e ( 130-120 ka), enhanced flooding activity mobilized local fine detritus from the surroundings of the Red Sea and the Dead Sea watershed into the water-bodies. This interval coincided with the Sapropel event S5 in the Mediterranean that responded to enhanced monsoon rains at the heads of the Blue Nile River. At the end of MIS 5e ( 120-116 ka) the effect of the regional floods faded and the Dead Sea and Red Sea areas re-entered sever arid conditions with salt deposition at the Dead Sea. Overall, the desert

Using the Moist Static Energy Budget to Understand Storm Track Shifts across a Range of Timescales

Science.gov (United States)

Barpanda, P.; Shaw, T.

2017-12-01

Storm tracks shift meridionally in response to forcing across a range of time scales. Here we formulate a moist static energy (MSE) framework for storm track position and use it to understand storm track shifts in response to seasonal insolation, El Niño minus La Niña conditions, and direct (increased CO2 over land) and indirect (increased sea surface temperature) effects of increased CO2. Two methods (linearized Taylor series and imposed MSE flux divergence) are developed to quantify storm track shifts and decompose them into contributions from net energy (MSE input to the atmosphere minus atmospheric storage) and MSE flux divergence by the mean meridional circulation and stationary eddies. Net energy is not a dominant contribution across the time scales considered. The stationary eddy contribution dominates the storm-track shift in response to seasonal insolation, El Niño minus La Niña conditions, and CO2 direct effect in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas the mean meridional circulation contribution dominates the shift in response to CO2 indirect effect during northern winter and in the Southern Hemisphere during May and October. Overall, the MSE framework shows the seasonal storm-track shift in the Northern Hemisphere is connected to the stationary eddy MSE flux evolution. Furthermore, the equatorward storm-track shift during northern winter in response to El Niño minus La Niña conditions involves a different regime than the poleward shift in response to increased CO2 even though the tropical upper troposphere warms in both cases.

Land-Sea Correlation of Holocene Records in NW Iberian Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez-Alvare, R.; Costas, S.; Bernardez, P.; Frances, G.; Alejo, I.

2005-12-01

Holocene climate fluctuations in the temperate region of the Northeast Atlantic have been established by comparing marine and terrestrial proxies. This work is based on suction-cores collected in the Cies Islands lagoon (NW Spain) and vibro-cores from the adjacent continental shelf. The lower Holocene marine record (9400-7000 yr BP) consists on sandy transgressive facies overlying fluvial Pleistocene deposits. During this time the continental shelf was dominated by high energy processes linked to the progressive and fast sea level rise. The rate of sea level rise sharply decelerated at 7000 yr BP and a high productive marine environment was fully established, as revealed by planktonic foraminifera assemblages and biogeochemical markers. In the terrestrial areas, peat deposits were formed beginning around 6000 yr BP in the deeper parts of the paleo-relief that was developed above the granitic basement. The peat was deposited in a fresh-water shallow coastal lake under warm and humid conditions that are brought about by prevailing SW winds. From 4800 yr BP, a progressive rainfall decrease provoked the lowering of the lake level and a weaker fluvial influence on the adjacent shelf. The prevailing eastern winds caused significantly drier conditions between 4000 and 3200 yr BP. During this period the coastal lake dried and the peat layer was covered by aeolian deposits. At the continental shelf a strong stratification of the water column induced a fall in the productivity. The end of this period is marked by the increase of storm regimes caused by a shift to prevailing SW winds. The last 3000 years are characterized by humid and warm conditions, and the enhancement of upwelling regime and terrestrial sediment supply. In Cies Islands, a sand barrier-lagoon complex was developed as a consequence of both the sea level rise and the inundation of the lower areas in the island.

Optimal dividend distribution under Markov regime switching

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jiang, Z.; Pistorius, M.

2012-01-01

We investigate the problem of optimal dividend distribution for a company in the presence of regime shifts. We consider a company whose cumulative net revenues evolve as a Brownian motion with positive drift that is modulated by a finite state Markov chain, and model the discount rate as a

Energy efficiency improvement by gear shifting optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Blagojevic Ivan A.

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Many studies have proved that elements of driver’s behavior related to gear selection have considerable influence on the fuel consumption. Optimal gear shifting is a complex task, especially for inexperienced drivers. This paper presents an implemented idea for gear shifting optimization with the aim of fuel consumption minimization with more efficient engine working regimes. Optimized gear shifting enables the best possible relation between vehicle motion regimes and engine working regimes. New theoretical-experimental approach has been developed using On-Board Diagnostic technology which so far has not been used for this purpose. The matrix of driving modes according to which tests were performed is obtained and special data acquisition system and analysis process have been developed. Functional relations between experimental test modes and adequate engine working parameters have been obtained and all necessary operations have been conducted to enable their use as inputs for the designed algorithm. The created Model has been tested in real exploitation conditions on passenger car with Otto fuel injection engine and On-Board Diagnostic connection without any changes on it. The conducted tests have shown that the presented Model has significantly positive effects on fuel consumption which is an important ecological aspect. Further development and testing of the Model allows implementation in wide range of motor vehicles with various types of internal combustion engines.

Phenotypic plasticity of southern ocean diatoms: key to success in the sea ice habitat?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olivia Sackett

Full Text Available Diatoms are the primary source of nutrition and energy for the Southern Ocean ecosystem. Microalgae, including diatoms, synthesise biological macromolecules such as lipids, proteins and carbohydrates for growth, reproduction and acclimation to prevailing environmental conditions. Here we show that three key species of Southern Ocean diatom (Fragilariopsis cylindrus, Chaetoceros simplex and Pseudo-nitzschia subcurvata exhibited phenotypic plasticity in response to salinity and temperature regimes experienced during the seasonal formation and decay of sea ice. The degree of phenotypic plasticity, in terms of changes in macromolecular composition, was highly species-specific and consistent with each species' known distribution and abundance throughout sea ice, meltwater and pelagic habitats, suggesting that phenotypic plasticity may have been selected for by the extreme variability of the polar marine environment. We argue that changes in diatom macromolecular composition and shifts in species dominance in response to a changing climate have the potential to alter nutrient and energy fluxes throughout the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

Broad-scale climate influences on spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus, L.) recruitment in the Western Baltic Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Gröger, Joachim P; Hinrichsen, Hans-Harald; Polte, Patrick

2014-01-01

Climate forcing in complex ecosystems can have profound implications for ecosystem sustainability and may thus challenge a precautionary ecosystem management. Climatic influences documented to affect various ecological functions on a global scale, may themselves be observed on quantitative or qualitative scales including regime shifts in complex marine ecosystems. This study investigates the potential climatic impact on the reproduction success of spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) in the Western Baltic Sea (WBSS herring). To test for climate effects on reproduction success, the regionally determined and scientifically well-documented spawning grounds of WBSS herring represent an ideal model system. Climate effects on herring reproduction were investigated using two global indices of atmospheric variability and sea surface temperature, represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), respectively, and the Baltic Sea Index (BSI) which is a regional-scale atmospheric index for the Baltic Sea. Moreover, we combined a traditional approach with modern time series analysis based on a recruitment model connecting parental population components with reproduction success. Generalized transfer functions (ARIMAX models) allowed evaluating the dynamic nature of exogenous climate processes interacting with the endogenous recruitment process. Using different model selection criteria our results reveal that in contrast to NAO and AMO, the BSI shows a significant positive but delayed signal on the annual dynamics of herring recruitment. The westward influence of the Siberian high is considered strongly suppressing the influence of the NAO in this area leading to a higher explanatory power of the BSI reflecting the atmospheric pressure regime on a North-South transect between Oslo, Norway and Szczecin, Poland. We suggest incorporating climate-induced effects into stock and risk assessments and management strategies as part

Broad-scale climate influences on spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus, L. recruitment in the Western Baltic Sea.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joachim P Gröger

Full Text Available Climate forcing in complex ecosystems can have profound implications for ecosystem sustainability and may thus challenge a precautionary ecosystem management. Climatic influences documented to affect various ecological functions on a global scale, may themselves be observed on quantitative or qualitative scales including regime shifts in complex marine ecosystems. This study investigates the potential climatic impact on the reproduction success of spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus in the Western Baltic Sea (WBSS herring. To test for climate effects on reproduction success, the regionally determined and scientifically well-documented spawning grounds of WBSS herring represent an ideal model system. Climate effects on herring reproduction were investigated using two global indices of atmospheric variability and sea surface temperature, represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO, respectively, and the Baltic Sea Index (BSI which is a regional-scale atmospheric index for the Baltic Sea. Moreover, we combined a traditional approach with modern time series analysis based on a recruitment model connecting parental population components with reproduction success. Generalized transfer functions (ARIMAX models allowed evaluating the dynamic nature of exogenous climate processes interacting with the endogenous recruitment process. Using different model selection criteria our results reveal that in contrast to NAO and AMO, the BSI shows a significant positive but delayed signal on the annual dynamics of herring recruitment. The westward influence of the Siberian high is considered strongly suppressing the influence of the NAO in this area leading to a higher explanatory power of the BSI reflecting the atmospheric pressure regime on a North-South transect between Oslo, Norway and Szczecin, Poland. We suggest incorporating climate-induced effects into stock and risk assessments and management

Quaternary Sea-ice history in the Arctic Ocean based on a new Ostracode sea-ice proxy

Science.gov (United States)

Cronin, T. M.; Gemery, L.; Briggs, W.M.; Jakobsson, M.; Polyak, L.; Brouwers, E.M.

2010-01-01

Paleo-sea-ice history in the Arctic Ocean was reconstructed using the sea-ice dwelling ostracode Acetabulastoma arcticum from late Quaternary sediments from the Mendeleyev, Lomonosov, and Gakkel Ridges, the Morris Jesup Rise and the Yermak Plateau. Results suggest intermittently high levels of perennial sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 (25-45 ka), minimal sea ice during the last deglacial (16-11 ka) and early Holocene thermal maximum (11-5 ka) and increasing sea ice during the mid-to-late Holocene (5-0 ka). Sediment core records from the Iceland and Rockall Plateaus show that perennial sea ice existed in these regions only during glacial intervals MIS 2, 4, and 6. These results show that sea ice exhibits complex temporal and spatial variability during different climatic regimes and that the development of modern perennial sea ice may be a relatively recent phenomenon. ?? 2010.

Legal regime of the Bering Strait and security of navigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksandr S. Skaridov

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Objective to establish the legal regime and security of navigation in the Bering Strait. Methods formal logical method systemic method comparative legal method statistical method. Results in the recent years specialized publications contain numerous publications on the problems of development of Arctic shipping and the future intensification of the use of the Northern Sea Route. Whatever Arctic routes may be chosen by the skippers the vessels will have to overcome the narrowness of the Bering Strait. If the existing estimates are reasonable and the navigation of the NorthWest Sea Passage will increase it is appropriate to ask whether the legal regime and security means are adapted to the possible increase of commercial shipping and military navigation. In this respect the author formulates the legal measures aimed at ensuring security in the Bering Strait area with the account of growing cargo traffic. Scientific novelty for the first time the article proves the necessity to include into the Bering Strait area the territories bounded from the north by the east and west passages formed by the Diomede Islands and continental coasts of the Russian Federation and the United States and from the south ndash by the passages between the Cape of Chukotka and Cape Sevuokuk of St. Lawrence Island Cape Sivuka and the mainland of Alaska in order to protect the sea natural landscape and to ensure the maritime safety. The opinion is substantiated about the necessity to equip the marine passages forming the waters of the Bering Strait with a security system. The proposed legal regime of ensuring the safety of navigation in the Bering Strait which includes the common navigation rules establishing the areas of the vessel traffic separation designation of areas of marine reserves and organizationallegal means for damping the dangerous situations. Practical significance the findings and conclusions of the article can be used in scientific educational and law

Sea level ~400 000 years ago (MIS 11: analogue for present and future sea-level?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Q. Bowen

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Comparison of the sea-level today with that of 400 000 years ago (MIS 11, when the Earth's orbital characteristics were similar may provide, under conditions of natural variability, indications of future sea-level during the present interglacial. Then, as now, orbital eccentricity was low and precession dampened. Evidence for MIS 11 sea-level occurs on uplifting coastlines where shorelines with geochronological ages have been preserved. The sea-level term and the uplift term may be separated with an "uplift correction" formula. This discovers the original sea-level at which the now uplifted shoreline was fashioned. Estimates are based on average uplift rates of the "last interglacial" sea-level (MIS 5.5 using a range of estimates for sea-level and age at that time at different locations. These, with varying secular tectonic regimes in different ocean basins, provide a band of estimates for the MIS 11 sea-level. They do not support the hypothesis of an MIS 11 sea-level at ~20 m, and instead show that it was closer to its present level.

Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

Science.gov (United States)

Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew L.; Cullinan, Valerie; Downs, Janelle; McKinley, Randy

2016-01-01

Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

Physical control of the distributions of a key Arctic copepod in the Northeast Chukchi Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Elliott, Stephen M.; Ashjian, Carin J.; Feng, Zhixuan; Jones, Benjamin; Chen, Changsheng; Zhang, Yu

2017-10-01

The Chukchi Sea is a highly advective regime dominated by a barotropically driven northward flow modulated by wind driven currents that reach the bottom boundary layer of this shallow environment. A general northward gradient of decreasing temperature and food concentration leads to geographically divergent copepod growth and development rates between north and south. The physics of this system establish the biological connection potential between specific regions. The copepod Calanus glacialis is a key grazer, predator, and food source in Arctic shelf seas. Its summer distribution and abundance have direct effects on much of the food web, from phytoplankton to migrating bowhead whales. In August 2012 and 2013, C. glacialis distributions were quantified over Hanna Shoal in the northeast Chukchi Sea. Here an individual-based model with Lagrangian tracking and copepod life stage development capabilities is used to advect and develop these distributions forward and backward in time to determine the source (production locations) and sink (potential overwintering locations) regions of the transient Hanna Shoal C. glacialis population. Hanna Shoal supplies diapause competent C. glacialis to both the Beaufort Slope and the Chukchi Cap, mainly receives juveniles from the broad slope between Hanna Shoal and Herald Valley and receives second year adults from as far south as the Anadyr Gulf and as near as the broad slope between Hanna Shoal and Herald Valley. The 2013 sink region was shifted west relative to the 2012 region and the 2013 adult source region was shifted north relative to the 2012 adult source region. These connection potentials were not sensitive to precise times and locations of release, but were quite sensitive to depth of release. These patterns demonstrate how interannual differences in the physical conditions well south of Hanna Shoal play a critical role in determining the abundance and distribution of a key food source over Hanna Shoal and in the

The stretching amplitude and thermal regime of the lithosphere in the nonvolcanic passive margin of Antarctica in the Mawson Sea region

Science.gov (United States)

Galushkin, Yu. I.; Leitchenkov, G. L.; Guseva, Yu. B.; Dubinin, E. P.

2018-01-01

The burial history and thermal evolution of the lithosphere within the passive nonvolcanic Antarctic margin in the region of the Mawson Sea are numerically reconstructed for the margin areas along the seismic profile 5909 with the use of the GALO basin modeling system. The amplitudes of the lithosphere stretching at the different stages of continental rifting which took place from 160 to 90 Ma ago are calculated from the geophysical estimates of the thickness of the consolidated crust and the tectonic analysis of the variations in the thickness of the sedimentary cover and sea depths during the evolution of the basin. It is hypothesized that the formation of the recent sedimentary section sequence in the studied region of the Antarctic margin began 140 Ma ago on a basement that was thinned by a factor of 1.6 to 4.5 during the first episode of margin stretching (160-140 Ma) under a fairly high heat flux. The reconstruction of the thermal regime of the lithosphere has shown that the mantle rocks could occur within the temperature interval of serpentinization and simultaneously within the time interval of lithospheric stretching (-160 serpentinization could take place in these areas as in the other margin segments at the stage of presedimentation ultra slow basement stretching.

Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?

Science.gov (United States)

Crasemann, Berit; Handorf, Dörthe; Jaiser, Ralf; Dethloff, Klaus; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

2017-12-01

In the framework of atmospheric circulation regimes, we study whether the recent Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic Amplification are associated with changes in the frequency of occurrence of preferred atmospheric circulation patterns during the extended winter season from December to March. To determine regimes we applied a cluster analysis to sea-level pressure fields from reanalysis data and output from an atmospheric general circulation model. The specific set up of the two analyzed model simulations for low and high ice conditions allows for attributing differences between the simulations to the prescribed sea ice changes only. The reanalysis data revealed two circulation patterns that occur more frequently for low Arctic sea ice conditions: a Scandinavian blocking in December and January and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in February and March. An analysis of related patterns of synoptic-scale activity and 2 m temperatures provides a synoptic interpretation of the corresponding large-scale regimes. The regimes that occur more frequently for low sea ice conditions are resembled reasonably well by the model simulations. Based on those results we conclude that the detected changes in the frequency of occurrence of large-scale circulation patterns can be associated with changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.

Modelling the future of the arctic sea ice cover

OpenAIRE

Myklebust, Erik Bryhn

2017-01-01

Record lows in sea ice cover have recently sparked new interest in the small ice cap instability. The change in albedo when sea ice becomes open water introduces a nonlinearity called the ice-albedo feedback. Forcing a joint energy- balance and sea ice model can lead to unstable ice caps in certain parameter regimes. When the ice caps are unstable, a small perturbation will initiate a tipping point in the sea ice cover. For tipping points in general, a number of studies have pointed out that ...

ASSESSING THE STATE OF THE PELAGIC HABITAT: A CASE STUDY OF PLANKTON AND ITS ENVIRONMENT IN THE WESTERN IRISH SEA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cordula Scherer

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Much work had been undertaken on tracking change in the condition of marine pelagic ecosystems and on identifying regime shifts. However, it is also necessary to relate change to states of good ecosystem health or what the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD calls 'Good Environmental Status' (GES. Drawing on existing scientific and legislative principles, including those of OSPAR's 'Strategy to Combat Eutrophication', we propose a framework for assessing the status of what the MSFD calls the 'pelagic habitat' in temperate coastal seas. The framework uses knowledge of local ecohydrodynamic conditions, especially those relating to the stratification and optical environment, to guide expectations of what would be recognised as healthy in terms of ecosystem 'organisation' and 'vigour'. We apply this framework to the seasonally stratified regime of the Western Irish Sea, drawing on published and new work on stratification, nutrient and phytoplankton seasonal cycles, zooplankton, and the implications of plankton community structure and production for higher trophic levels. We conclude that, despite human pressures including nutrient enrichment, and the food-web effects of fisheries, the pelagic ecosystem here is in GES, and hence may be used as a reference for the 'Plankton Index' method of tracking change in state space in seasonally stratified waters.

Effect of climate-ocean changes on the abundance of Pacific saury.

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Yeong; Suh, Young Sang

2013-01-01

Effects of ocean climate changes on the population structure and abundance of Pacific saury (Cololabis sira) were investigated on the basis of climate indices, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, catch and body size information from the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) region (Yellow Sea, East China Sea and East/Japan Sea) during the period 1950-2010. It is suggested that oceanic regime shifts in the early 1970s, late 1980s and late 1990s occurred in the TWC region in winter, but the regime shifts in the mid-1970s and in the late 1980s were not evident in the spring SST anomaly series. The abundance and body size of Pacific saury fluctuated in association with the winter oceanic changes in the TWC region. The catch rates and abundance of large size saury were far bellow average during their northward migrations in the TWC region in the years with abnormally cool winters (e.g., 1963, 1970, 1977, 1981-1989 and 2006) and above average in the years with warm winters. These patterns demonstrate decadal-scale variations together with large inter-annual fluctuations in the structure and abundance of Pacific saury in association with the climatic-oceanic changes. These results, along with an alternation of dominant pelagic fish species, indicate the status of the saury population in the TWC region is in good condition, similar to that in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Current (KOC) region during the warm regime after the late 1980s climate regime shift.

Air sea ratio reduction initiative

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oberle, Jean

2010-09-15

Airfreight is the most expensive mode of transportation as well as the most impacting in terms of CO{sup 2} emissions. It is 7 times more expensive on average to ship by air than shipping by sea 1. Airfreight transportation mode emits 30 times more CO{sup 2} than sea freight mode 2. These elements provided a compelling platform to design a global logistics program to initiate a modal shift from air to sea freight without compromising service to customers.

How Changing Human Lifestyles are Shaping Europe's Regional Seas

Science.gov (United States)

Mee, L. D.; Lowe, C. D.; Langmead, O.; McQuatters-Gollop, A.; Attrill, M.; Cooper, P.; Gilbert, A.; Knudsen, S.; Garnacho, E.

2007-05-01

sediments and are gradually released to the water column. This situation is analogous to climate change `locked in' by current greenhouse gas concentrations that are products of past economic activities. For the Baltic Sea for example, only a radical reduction in both phosphorus and nitrogen loads to the sea would overcome eutrophication, and future management strategies must contemplate adaptation as well as mitigation. These strategies will also need to accommodate climate change, regime shifts and emergent issues such as `lifestyle' chemicals and the massive development of offshore renewable energy.

Altered stream-flow regimes and invasive plant species: The Tamarix case

Science.gov (United States)

Stromberg, J.C.; Lite, S.J.; Marler, R.; Paradzick, C.; Shafroth, P.B.; Shorrock, D.; White, J.M.; White, M.S.

2007-01-01

Aim: To test the hypothesis that anthropogenic alteration of stream-flow regimes is a key driver of compositional shifts from native to introduced riparian plant species. Location: The arid south-western United States; 24 river reaches in the Gila and Lower Colorado drainage basins of Arizona. Methods: We compared the abundance of three dominant woody riparian taxa (native Populus fremontii and Salix gooddingii, and introduced Tamarix) between river reaches that varied in stream-flow permanence (perennial vs. intermittent), presence or absence of an upstream flow-regulating dam, and presence or absence of municipal effluent as a stream water source. Results: Populus and Salix were the dominant pioneer trees along the reaches with perennial flow and a natural flood regime. In contrast, Tamarix had high abundance (patch area and basal area) along reaches with intermittent stream flows (caused by natural and cultural factors), as well as those with dam-regulated flows. Main conclusions: Stream-flow regimes are strong determinants of riparian vegetation structure, and hydrological alterations can drive dominance shifts to introduced species that have an adaptive suite of traits. Deep alluvial groundwater on intermittent rivers favours the deep-rooted, stress-adapted Tamarix over the shallower-rooted and more competitive Populus and Salix. On flow-regulated rivers, shifts in flood timing favour the reproductively opportunistic Tamarix over Populus and Salix, both of which have narrow germination windows. The prevailing hydrological conditions thus favour a new dominant pioneer species in the riparian corridors of the American Southwest. These results reaffirm the importance of reinstating stream-flow regimes (inclusive of groundwater flows) for re-establishing the native pioneer trees as the dominant forest type. ?? 2007 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Knowledge-based sea ice classification by polarimetric SAR

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skriver, Henning; Dierking, Wolfgang

2004-01-01

Polarimetric SAR images acquired at C- and L-band over sea ice in the Greenland Sea, Baltic Sea, and Beaufort Sea have been analysed with respect to their potential for ice type classification. The polarimetric data were gathered by the Danish EMISAR and the US AIRSAR which both are airborne...... systems. A hierarchical classification scheme was chosen for sea ice because our knowledge about magnitudes, variations, and dependences of sea ice signatures can be directly considered. The optimal sequence of classification rules and the rules themselves depend on the ice conditions/regimes. The use...... of the polarimetric phase information improves the classification only in the case of thin ice types but is not necessary for thicker ice (above about 30 cm thickness)...

A tax reprieve for the North Sea?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kemp, A.

1998-01-01

The United Kingdom government has for the time being put to one side its intended review of the fiscal regime in the North Sea. Consistently low oil prices over the last year and the consequent effect on production have given rise to this decision. The ongoing debate on oil taxation in the UK over the past 18 months since the advent of a new government is examined. It has its roots in the last major changes to the oil tax regime which were made in 1993. It has been made clear by the government that the taxation review has not been abandoned and could come to the fore again should there be a substantial increase in oil and gas prices or if companies sought premature decommissioning of North Sea fields. (UK)

Effects of air-sea coupling over the North Sea and the Baltic Sea on simulated summer precipitation over Central Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Ho-Hagemann, Ha Thi Minh; Gröger, Matthias; Rockel, Burkhardt; Zahn, Matthias; Geyer, Beate; Meier, H. E. Markus

2017-12-01

This study introduces a new approach to investigate the potential effects of air-sea coupling on simulated precipitation inland over Central Europe. We present an inter-comparison of two regional climate models (RCMs), namely, the COSMO-CLM (hereafter CCLM) and RCA4 models, which are configured for the EURO-CORDEX domain in the coupled and atmosphere-only modes. Two versions of the CCLM model, namely, 4.8 and 5.0, join the inter-comparison being almost two different models while providing pronouncedly different summer precipitation simulations because of many changes in the dynamics and physics of CCLM in version 5.0. The coupling effect on the prominent summer dry bias over Central Europe is analysed using seasonal (JJA) mean statistics for the 30-year period from 1979 to 2009, with a focus on extreme precipitation under specific weather regimes. The weather regimes are compared between the coupled and uncoupled simulations to better understand the mechanism of the coupling effects. The comparisons of the coupled systems with the atmosphere-only models show that coupling clearly reduces the dry bias over Central Europe for CCLM 4.8, which has a large dry summer bias, but not for CCLM 5.0 and RCA4, which have smaller dry biases. This result implies that if the atmosphere-only model already yields reasonable summer precipitation over Central Europe, not much room for improvement exists that can be caused by the air-sea coupling over the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. However, if the atmosphere-only model shows a pronounced summer dry bias because of a lack of moisture transport from the seas into the region, the considered coupling may create an improved simulation of summer precipitation over Central Europe, such as for CCLM 4.8. For the latter, the benefit of coupling varies over the considered timescales. The precipitation simulations that are generated by the coupled system COSTRICE 4.8 and the atmosphere-only CCLM 4.8 are mostly identical for the summer mean

The computer system for the express-analysis of the irradiation samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vzorov, I.K.; Kalmykov, A.V.; Korenev, S.A.; Minashkin, V.F.; Sikolenko, V.V.

1999-01-01

The computer system for the express-analysis (SEA) of the irradiation samples is described. The system is working together with the pulse high current electrons and ions source. It allows us to correct irradiation regime in real time. The SEA system automatically measures volt-ampere and volt-farad characteristics, sample resistance by 'four-probe' method, sample capacitor parameters. Its parameters are: in the volt-ampere measuring regime - U max = 200 V, minimal voltage step U sh =0.05 V, voltage accuracy 0.25%; in the capacity measuring regime - capacity measurement diapason 0 - 1600 pF, working frequencies diapason 1 -150 kHz, capacity accuracy 0.5%, voltage shifting diapason 1 - 200 V, minimal step of voltage shifting U sh 0.05 V. The SEA management is performed by IBM/AT computer. The control and measuring apparatus was realized in CAMAC standard. The programmed set consists of the first display procedures, control, treatment and information exit. (author)

Water regime of steam power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oesz, Janos

2011-01-01

The water regime of water-steam thermal power plants (secondary side of pressurized water reactors (PWR); fossil-fired thermal power plants - referred to as steam power plants) has changed in the past 30 years, due to a shift from water chemistry to water regime approach. The article summarizes measures (that have been realised by chemists of NPP Paks) on which the secondary side of NPP Paks has become a high purity water-steam power plant and by which the water chemistry stress corrosion risk of heat transfer tubes in the VVER-440 steam generators was minimized. The measures can also be applied to the water regime of fossil-fired thermal power plants with super- and subcritical steam pressure. Based on the reliability analogue of PWR steam generators, water regime can be defined as the harmony of construction, material(s) and water chemistry, which needs to be provided in not only the steam generators (boiler) but in each heat exchanger of steam power plant: - Construction determines the processes of flow, heat and mass transfer and their local inequalities; - Material(s) determines the minimal rate of general corrosion and the sensitivity for local corrosion damage; - Water chemistry influences the general corrosion of material(s) and the corrosion products transport, as well as the formation of local corrosion environment. (orig.)

Are Calanus spp. shifting poleward in the North Atlantic? A habitat modelling approach

KAUST Repository

Chust, Guillem

2013-09-16

In the last decade, the analysis based on Continuous Plankton Recorder survey in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean detected one of the most striking examples of marine poleward migration related to sea warming. The main objective of this study is to verify the poleward shift of zooplankton species (Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis, C. helgolandicus, C. hyperboreus) for which distributional changes have been recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean and to assess how much of this shift was triggered by sea warming, using Generalized Additive Models. To this end, the population gravity centre of observed data was compared with that of a series of simulation experiments: (i) a model using only climate factors (i.e. niche-based model) to simulate species habitat suitability, (ii) a model using only temporal and spatial terms to reconstruct the population distribution, and (iii) a model using both factors combined, using a subset of observations as independent dataset for validation. Our findings show that only C. finmarchicus had a consistent poleward shift, triggered by sea warming, estimated in 8.1 km per decade in the North Atlantic (16.5 per decade for the northeast), which is substantially lower than previous works at the assemblage level and restricted to the Northeast Atlantic. On the contrary, C. helgolandicus is expanding in all directions, although its northern distribution limit in the North Sea has shifted northward. Calanus glacialis and C. hyperboreus, which have the geographic centres of populations mainly in the NW Atlantic, showed a slight southward shift, probably responding to cool water penetrating southward in the Labrador Current. Our approach, supported by high model accuracy, shows its power in detecting species latitudinal shifts and identifying its causes, since the trend of occurrence observed data is influenced by the sampling frequency, which has progressively concentrated to lower latitudes with time. © 2013 © 2013 International Council for

The Water Level and Transport Regimes of the Lower Columbia River

Science.gov (United States)

Jay, D. A.

2011-12-01

Tidal rivers are vital, spatially extensive conduits of material from land to sea. Yet the tidal-fluvial regime remains poorly understood relative to the bordering fluvial and estuarine/coastal regimes with which it interacts. The 235km-long Lower Columbia River (LCR) consists of five zones defined by topographic constrictions: a 5km-long ocean-entrance, the lower estuary (15km), an energy-minimum (67km), the tidal river (142km), and a landslide zone (5km). Buoyant plume lift-off occurs within the entrance zone, which is dominated by tidal and wave energy. The lower estuary is strongly tidally, amplifies the semidiurnal tide, and has highly variable salinity intrusion. Tidal and fluvial influences are balanced in the wide energy-minimum, into which salinity intrudes during low-flow periods. It has a turbidity maximum and a dissipation minimum at its lower end, but a water-level variance minimum at its landward end. The tidal river shows a large increase in the ratio of fluvial-to-tidal energy in the landward direction and strong seasonal variations in tidal properties. Because tidal monthly water level variations are large, low waters are higher on spring than neap tides. The steep landslide zone has only weak tides and is the site of the most seaward hydropower dam. Like many dammed systems, the LCR has pseudo-tides: daily and weakly hydropower peaking waves that propagate seaward. Tidal constituent ratios vary in the alongchannel direction due to frictional non-linearities, the changing balance of dissipation vs. propagation, and power peaking. Long-term changes to the system have occurred due to climate change and direct human manipulation. Flood control, hydropower regulation, and diversion have reduced peak flows, total load and sand transport by ~45, 50 and 80%, respectively, causing a blue-shift in the flow and water level power spectra. Overbank flows have been largely eliminated through a redundant combination of diking and flow regulation. Export of sand

Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems

Science.gov (United States)

Gunderson, Lance; Cosens, Barbara; Chaffin, Brian C.; Arnold, Craig Anthony (Tony); Fremier, Alexander K.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Kundis Craig, Robin; Gosnell, Hannah; Birge, Hannah E.; Allen, Craig R.; Benson, Melinda H.; Morrison, Ryan R.; Stone, Mark; Hamm, Joseph A.; Nemec, Kristine T.; Schlager, Edella; Llewellyn, Dagmar

2017-01-01

In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises, but may also facilitate recovery; and constrain system transformation, but may also provide windows of opportunity in which transformation, and the resources to accomplish it, may occur. The framework is the starting point for our exploration of how law might play a role in enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt to climate change.

Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lance Gunderson

2017-03-01

Full Text Available In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a development and stabilization, (b cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3 periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises, but may also facilitate recovery; and constrain system transformation, but may also provide windows of opportunity in which transformation, and the resources to accomplish it, may occur. The framework is the starting point for our exploration of how law might play a role in enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt to climate change.

Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia

OpenAIRE

Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne de; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A.; Niklasson, Mats

2016-01-01

Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the nort...

Stark shift and g-factor tuning in nanowires with Rashba effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alhaddad, Iman; Habanjar, Khulud; Sakr, M.R.

2015-01-01

We report on the Stark shift of the energy subbands and the possibility of tuning the g-factor of electrons in nanowires subjected to external magnetic field. The electric field is applied along the direction of quantum confinement. Our analysis is based on numerical and perturbation calculations in the weak Rashba regime. For in-plane magnetic fields, the Stark shift is rigid and depends on the square of the electric field. Such rigid shift results in a field independent g-factor. Perpendicular magnetic fields induce a similar Stark shift accompanied by a lateral displacement of the energy spectra that is linear in the electric field. In this case, the g-factor shows square dependence on weak electric fields that varies with the subband index. However, in strong electric fields, the g-factor becomes subband independent and varies linearly with the field. - Highlights: • Energy spectra of electrons in nanowires are calculated in the weak Rashba regime. • For in-plane magnetic field, the Stark shift is rigid and the g-factor cannot be tuned. • Perpendicular magnetic fields add lateral displacement to the Stark shift. • The g-factor can be tuned by external electric field in this case. • The tuning of the g-factor is linear and unique for all subbands at high fields

Stark shift and g-factor tuning in nanowires with Rashba effect

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alhaddad, Iman; Habanjar, Khulud [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Beirut Arab University, P.O. Box 11, 5020 Riad El Solh, 11072809 - Beirut (Lebanon); Sakr, M.R., E-mail: msakr@alexu.edu.eg [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Beirut Arab University, P.O. Box 11, 5020 Riad El Solh, 11072809 - Beirut (Lebanon); Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Alexandria University, Moharram Bek, Alexandria 21511 (Egypt)

2015-10-15

We report on the Stark shift of the energy subbands and the possibility of tuning the g-factor of electrons in nanowires subjected to external magnetic field. The electric field is applied along the direction of quantum confinement. Our analysis is based on numerical and perturbation calculations in the weak Rashba regime. For in-plane magnetic fields, the Stark shift is rigid and depends on the square of the electric field. Such rigid shift results in a field independent g-factor. Perpendicular magnetic fields induce a similar Stark shift accompanied by a lateral displacement of the energy spectra that is linear in the electric field. In this case, the g-factor shows square dependence on weak electric fields that varies with the subband index. However, in strong electric fields, the g-factor becomes subband independent and varies linearly with the field. - Highlights: • Energy spectra of electrons in nanowires are calculated in the weak Rashba regime. • For in-plane magnetic field, the Stark shift is rigid and the g-factor cannot be tuned. • Perpendicular magnetic fields add lateral displacement to the Stark shift. • The g-factor can be tuned by external electric field in this case. • The tuning of the g-factor is linear and unique for all subbands at high fields.

Simulation of mesoscale circulation in the Tatar Strait of the Japan Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Ponomarev, V. I.; Fayman, P. A.; Prants, S. V.; Budyansky, M. V.; Uleysky, M. Yu.

2018-06-01

The eddy-resolved ocean circulation model RIAMOM (Lee et al., 2003) is used to analyze seasonal variability of mesoscale circulation in the Tatar Strait of the Japan Sea. The model domain is a vast area including the northern Japan Sea, Okhotsk Sea and adjacent region in the Pacific Ocean. A numerical experiment with a horizontal 1/18° resolution has been carried out under realistic meteorological conditions from the ECMWF ERA-40 reanalysis with restoring of surface temperature and salinity. The simulated seasonal variability of both the current system and mesoscale eddy dynamics in the Tatar Strait is in a good agreement with temperature and salinity distributions of oceanographic observation data collected during various seasons and years. Two general circulation regimes in the Strait have been found. The circulation regime changes from summer to winter due to seasonal change of the North Asian Monsoon. On a synoptic time scale, the similar change of the circulation regime occurs due to change of the southeastern wind to the northwestern one when the meteorological situation with an anticyclone over the Okhotsk Sea changes to that with a strong cyclone. The Lagrangian maps illustrate seasonal changes in direction of the main currents and in polarity and location of mesoscale eddies in the Strait.

Constraining Aerosol Optical Models Using Ground-Based, Collocated Particle Size and Mass Measurements in Variable Air Mass Regimes During the 7-SEAS/Dongsha Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Shaun W.; Hansell, Richard A.; Chow, Judith C.; Tsay, Si-Chee; Wang, Sheng-Hsiang; Ji, Qiang; Li, Can; Watson, John G.; Khlystov, Andrey

2012-01-01

During the spring of 2010, NASA Goddard's COMMIT ground-based mobile laboratory was stationed on Dongsha Island off the southwest coast of Taiwan, in preparation for the upcoming 2012 7-SEAS field campaign. The measurement period offered a unique opportunity for conducting detailed investigations of the optical properties of aerosols associated with different air mass regimes including background maritime and those contaminated by anthropogenic air pollution and mineral dust. What appears to be the first time for this region, a shortwave optical closure experiment for both scattering and absorption was attempted over a 12-day period during which aerosols exhibited the most change. Constraints to the optical model included combined SMPS and APS number concentration data for a continuum of fine and coarse-mode particle sizes up to PM2.5. We also take advantage of an IMPROVE chemical sampler to help constrain aerosol composition and mass partitioning of key elemental species including sea-salt, particulate organic matter, soil, non sea-salt sulphate, nitrate, and elemental carbon. Our results demonstrate that the observed aerosol scattering and absorption for these diverse air masses are reasonably captured by the model, where peak aerosol events and transitions between key aerosols types are evident. Signatures of heavy polluted aerosol composed mostly of ammonium and non sea-salt sulphate mixed with some dust with transitions to background sea-salt conditions are apparent in the absorption data, which is particularly reassuring owing to the large variability in the imaginary component of the refractive indices. Extinctive features at significantly smaller time scales than the one-day sample period of IMPROVE are more difficult to reproduce, as this requires further knowledge concerning the source apportionment of major chemical components in the model. Consistency between the measured and modeled optical parameters serves as an important link for advancing remote

Biologically-Oriented Processes in the Coastal Sea Ice Zone of the White Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Melnikov, I. A.

2002-12-01

The annual advance and retreat of sea ice is a major physical determinant of spatial and temporal changes in the structure and function of marine coastal biological communities. Sea ice biological data obtained in the tidal zone of Kandalaksha Gulf (White Sea) during 1996-2001 period will be presented. Previous observations in this area were mainly conducted during the ice-free summer season. However, there is little information on the ice-covered winter season (6-7 months duration), and, especially, on the sea-ice biology in the coastal zone within tidal regimes. During the January-May period time-series observations were conducted on transects along shorelines with coastal and fast ice. Trends in the annual extent of sea ice showed significant impacts on ice-associated biological communities. Three types of sea ice impact on kelps, balanoides, littorinas and amphipods are distinguished: (i) positive, when sea ice protects these populations from grinding (ii) negative, when ice grinds both fauna and flora, and (iii) a combined effect, when fast ice protects, but anchored ice grinds plant and animals. To understand the full spectrum of ecological problems caused by pollution on the coastal zone, as well as the problems of sea ice melting caused by global warming, an integrated, long-term study of the physical, chemical, and biological processes is needed.

Adiabatic perturbation theory for atoms and molecules in the low-frequency regime.

Science.gov (United States)

Martiskainen, Hanna; Moiseyev, Nimrod

2017-12-14

There is an increasing interest in the photoinduced dynamics in the low frequency, ω, regime. The multiphoton absorptions by molecules in strong laser fields depend on the polarization of the laser and on the molecular structure. The unique properties of the interaction of atoms and molecules with lasers in the low-frequency regime imply new concepts and directions in strong-field light-matter interactions. Here we represent a perturbational approach for the calculations of the quasi-energy spectrum in the low-frequency regime, which avoids the construction of the Floquet operator with extremely large number of Floquet channels. The zero-order Hamiltonian in our perturbational approach is the adiabatic Hamiltonian where the atoms/molecules are exposed to a dc electric field rather than to ac-field. This is in the spirit of the first step in the Corkum three-step model. The second-order perturbation correction terms are obtained when iℏω∂∂τ serves as a perturbation and τ is a dimensionless variable. The second-order adiabatic perturbation scheme is found to be an excellent approach for calculating the ac-field Floquet solutions in our test case studies of a simple one-dimensional time-periodic model Hamiltonian. It is straightforward to implement the perturbation approach presented here for calculating atomic and molecular energy shifts (positions) due to the interaction with low-frequency ac-fields using high-level electronic structure methods. This is enabled since standard quantum chemistry packages allow the calculations of atomic and molecular energy shifts due to the interaction with dc-fields. In addition to the shift of the energy positions, the energy widths (inverse lifetimes) can be obtained at the same level of theory. These energy shifts are functions of the laser parameters (low frequency, intensity, and polarization).

Regime shift in fertilizer commodities indicates more turbulence ahead for food security.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James J Elser

Full Text Available Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this "Green Revolution" has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum. Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007-2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication.

Evaluation and Comparison of Extremal Hypothesis-Based Regime Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ishwar Joshi

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Regime channels are important for stable canal design and to determine river response to environmental changes, e.g., due to the construction of a dam, land use change, and climate shifts. A plethora of methods is available describing the hydraulic geometry of alluvial rivers in the regime. However, comparison of these methods using the same set of data seems lacking. In this study, we evaluate and compare four different extremal hypothesis-based regime methods, namely minimization of Froude number (MFN, maximum entropy and minimum energy dissipation rate (ME and MEDR, maximum flow efficiency (MFE, and Millar’s method, by dividing regime channel data into sand and gravel beds. The results show that for sand bed channels MFN gives a very high accuracy of prediction for regime channel width and depth. For gravel bed channels we find that MFN and ‘ME and MEDR’ give a very high accuracy of prediction for width and depth. Therefore the notion that extremal hypotheses which do not contain bank stability criteria are inappropriate for use is shown false as both MFN and ‘ME and MEDR’ lack bank stability criteria. Also, we find that bank vegetation has significant influence in the prediction of hydraulic geometry by MFN and ‘ME and MEDR’.

Lead-lag cross-sectional structure and detection of correlated anticorrelated regime shifts: Application to the volatilities of inflation and economic growth rates

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier

2007-07-01

We have recently introduced the “thermal optimal path” (TOP) method to investigate the real-time lead-lag structure between two time series. The TOP method consists in searching for a robust noise-averaged optimal path of the distance matrix along which the two time series have the greatest similarity. Here, we generalize the TOP method by introducing a more general definition of distance which takes into account possible regime shifts between positive and negative correlations. This generalization to track possible changes of correlation signs is able to identify possible transitions from one convention (or consensus) to another. Numerical simulations on synthetic time series verify that the new TOP method performs as expected even in the presence of substantial noise. We then apply it to investigate changes of convention in the dependence structure between the historical volatilities of the USA inflation rate and economic growth rate. Several measures show that the new TOP method significantly outperforms standard cross-correlation methods.

Pyrosequencing revealed shifts of prokaryotic communities between healthy and disease-like tissues of the Red Sea sponge Crella cyathophora

KAUST Repository

Gao, Zhao-Ming

2015-06-11

Sponge diseases have been widely reported, yet the causal factors and major pathogenic microbes remain elusive. In this study, two individuals of the sponge Crella cyathophora in total that showed similar disease-like characteristics were collected from two different locations along the Red Sea coast separated by more than 30 kilometers. The disease-like parts of the two individuals were both covered by green surfaces, and the body size was much smaller compared with adjacent healthy regions. Here, using high-throughput pyrosequencing technology, we investigated the prokaryotic communities in healthy and disease-like sponge tissues as well as adjacent seawater. Microbes in healthy tissues belonged mainly to the Proteobacteria, Cyanobacteria and Bacteroidetes, and were much more diverse at the phylum level than reported previously. Interestingly, the disease-like tissues from the two sponge individuals underwent shifts of prokaryotic communities and were both enriched with a novel clade affiliated with the phylum Verrucomicrobia, implying its intimate connection with the disease-like Red Sea sponge C. cyathophora. Enrichment of the phylum Verrucomicrobia was also considered to be correlated with the presence of algae assemblages forming the green surface of the disease-like sponge tissues. This finding represents an interesting case of sponge disease and is valuable for further study.

Projected shifts in copepod surface communities in the Mediterranean Sea under several climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Benedetti, F.; Guilhaumon, F.; Adloff, F.; Irisson, J. O.; Ayata, S. D.

2016-02-01

Although future increases in water temperature and future changes in regional circulation are expected to have great impacts on the pelagic food-web, estimates focusing on community-level shifts are still lacking for the planktonic compartment. By combining statistical niche models (or species distribution models) with projections from a regional circulation model, the impact of climate change on copepod epipelagic communities is assessed for the Mediterranean Sea. Habitat suitability maps are generated for 106 of the most abundant copepod species to analyze emerging patterns of diversity at the community level. Using variance analysis, we also quantified the uncertainties associated to our modeling strategy (niche model choice, CO2 emission scenario, boundary forcings of the circulation model). Comparing present and future projections, changes in species richness (alpha diversity) and in community composition (beta diversity, decomposed into turnover and nestedness component) are calculated. Average projections show that copepod communities will mainly experience turn-over processes, with little changes in species richness. Species gains are mainly located in the Gulf of Lions, the Northern Adriatic and the Northern Aegean seas. However, projections are highly variable, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean basin. We show that such variability is mainly driven by the choice of the niche model, through interactions with the CO2 emission scenario or the boundary forcing of the circulation model can be locally important. Finally, the possible impact of the estimated community changes on zooplanktonic functional and phylogenetic diversity is also assessed. We encourage the enlargement of this type of study to other components of the pelagic food-web, and argue that niche models' outputs should always be given along with a measure of uncertainty, and explained in light of a strong theoretical background.

Regime shift of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to a persistent arid state: external forcing versus internal variability

Science.gov (United States)

Srivastava, Ankur; Pradhan, Maheswar; Goswami, B. N.; Rao, Suryachandra A.

2017-11-01

The high propensity of deficient monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent in the recent 3 decades (seven deficient monsoons against 3 excess monsoon years) compared to the prior 3 decades has serious implications on the food and water resources in the country. Motivated by the need to understand the high occurrence of deficient monsoon during this period, we examine the change in predictability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and its teleconnections with Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures between the two periods. The shift in the tropical climate in the late 1970s appears to be one of the major reasons behind this. We find an increased predictability of the ISM in the recent 3 decades owing to reduced `internal' interannual variability (IAV) due to the high-frequency modes, while the `external' IAV arising from the low-frequency modes has remained largely the same. The Indian Ocean Dipole-ISM teleconnection has become positive during the monsoon season in the recent period thereby compensating for the weakened ENSO-ISM teleconnection. The central Pacific El-Niño and the Indian Ocean (IO) warming during the recent 3 decades are working together to realise enhanced ascending motion in the equatorial IO between 70°E and 100°E, preconditioning the Indian monsoon system prone to a deficient state.

‘Close enough’ – The link between the Syrian Electronic Army and the Bashar al-Assad regime, and implications for the future development of nation-state cyber counter-insurgency strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stewart Kenton Bertram

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The case of the Syrian Electronic Army (SEA offers the chance to study a counter response to the cyber activism of the Arab Spring. Research methods featured an adapted method of snowball sampling. The main technical finding of the study placed the SEA within two degrees of separation from a senior politician within the Assad regime. The core conclusion of the paper is the definition of a ‘close enough’ relationship between the SEA and the Assad regime, defined as distant enough to preserve plausible deniability but close enough to ensure the strategic alignment of the SEA to state policy goals.

Seasonal and inter-annual temperature variability in the bottom waters over the western Black Sea shelf

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. I. Shapiro

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Long-term changes in the state of the Bottom Shelf Water (BSW on the Western shelf of the Black Sea are assessed using analysis of intra-seasonal and inter-annual temperature variations. For the purpose of this study the BSW is defined as such shelf water mass between the seabed and the upper mixed layer (bounded by the σ_θ = 14.2 isopycnal which has limited ability to mix vertically with oxygen-rich surface waters during the warm season due to formation of a seasonal pycnocline. A long-term time series of temperature anomalies in the BSW is constructed from in-situ observations taken over the 2nd half of the 20th century. The BSW is shown to occupy nearly half of the shelf area during the summer stratification period (May–November.The results reveal a warm phase in the 1960s/70s, followed by a cold phase between 1985 and 1995 and a further warming after 1995. The transition between the warm and cold periods coincides with a regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem. While it was confirmed that the memory of winter convection is well preserved over the following months in the deep sea, the signal of winter cooling in the BSW significantly reduces during the warm season. The potential of the BSW to ventilate horizontally during the warm season with the deep-sea waters is assessed using isopycnic analysis of temperature variations. It is shown that temperature in the BSW is stronger correlated with the temperature of Cold Intermediate Waters (CIW in the deep sea than with the severity of the previous winters, thus indicating that the isopycnal exchanges with the deep sea are more important for inter-annual/inter-decadal variability of the BSW on the western Black Sea shelf than effects of winter convection on the shelf itself.

Theory versus practice in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lobos, Víctor, E-mail: vlobosg@gmail.com [CEG-IST, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Research Group on Strategic Approaches to Environment and Sustainability (SENSU), 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal); Centro de Estudios del Desarrollo, San Crescente 551, Las Condes, Santiago (Chile); Partidario, Maria [CEG-IST, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Research Group on Strategic Approaches to Environment and Sustainability (SENSU), 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal)

2014-09-15

Could the theory of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) be ahead of its time and decoupled from its practice? This paper evolved in search for this leading research question. Over the years the discourse on SEA experienced a gradual shift from the technocratic and rationalist thinking that supported its origin to more strategic approaches and integrated concepts, suggested since the mid 1990's. In this paper we share the results of our analysis of international thinking and practical experience with SEA. Results reveal that SEA practice changes very slowly when compared to advanced thinking supporting the noted shift. Current SEA practice shows to be still predominantly rooted in the logic of projects' environmental impact assessment (EIA). It is strongly bound to legal and regulatory requirements, and the motivation for its application persists being the delivery of environmental (or final) reports to meet legal obligations. Even though advanced SEA theoretical thinking claim its potential to help decisions to look forward, change mind-sets and the rationale of decision-making to meet sustainability challenges and enhance societal values, we note a weak relationship between the theoretical development of SEA and its practice. Why is this happening? Which factors explain this apparent inertia, resistance to change, in the SEA practice? Results appear to demonstrate the influence of assumptions, understandings, concepts, and beliefs in the use of SEA, which in turn suggest the political sensitivity of the instrument. - Highlights: • Theoretical thinking in SEA is ahead of its time. • SEA international practice reveals inertia to move out of project’ EIA comfort zone. • World current SEA practice show similar understandings of 30 years ago. • 100 world reports and survey of practitioners supported world review. • SEA great challenge is to change paradigms into new scientific complexity theories.

Theory versus practice in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lobos, Víctor; Partidario, Maria

2014-01-01

Could the theory of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) be ahead of its time and decoupled from its practice? This paper evolved in search for this leading research question. Over the years the discourse on SEA experienced a gradual shift from the technocratic and rationalist thinking that supported its origin to more strategic approaches and integrated concepts, suggested since the mid 1990's. In this paper we share the results of our analysis of international thinking and practical experience with SEA. Results reveal that SEA practice changes very slowly when compared to advanced thinking supporting the noted shift. Current SEA practice shows to be still predominantly rooted in the logic of projects' environmental impact assessment (EIA). It is strongly bound to legal and regulatory requirements, and the motivation for its application persists being the delivery of environmental (or final) reports to meet legal obligations. Even though advanced SEA theoretical thinking claim its potential to help decisions to look forward, change mind-sets and the rationale of decision-making to meet sustainability challenges and enhance societal values, we note a weak relationship between the theoretical development of SEA and its practice. Why is this happening? Which factors explain this apparent inertia, resistance to change, in the SEA practice? Results appear to demonstrate the influence of assumptions, understandings, concepts, and beliefs in the use of SEA, which in turn suggest the political sensitivity of the instrument. - Highlights: • Theoretical thinking in SEA is ahead of its time. • SEA international practice reveals inertia to move out of project’ EIA comfort zone. • World current SEA practice show similar understandings of 30 years ago. • 100 world reports and survey of practitioners supported world review. • SEA great challenge is to change paradigms into new scientific complexity theories

Influence of orographically enhanced SW monsoon flux on coastal processes along the SE Arabian Sea

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Chauhan, O.S.; Raghavan, B.R.; Singh, K.; Rajawat, A; Ajai; Kader, U.S.A; Nayak, S.

The Arabian Sea has an excess evaporation over precipitation regime. The southeast Arabian Sea is, however, anomalous because it has ~2800–4800 mm rainfall during the southwest monsoon (SWM). Despite a high rainfall, the fluvial influence on supply...

Pyrosequencing reveals the microbial communities in the Red Sea sponge Carteriospongia foliascens and their impressive shifts in abnormal tissues.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Zhao-Ming; Wang, Yong; Lee, On On; Tian, Ren-Mao; Wong, Yue Him; Bougouffa, Salim; Batang, Zenon; Al-Suwailem, Abdulaziz; Lafi, Feras F; Bajic, Vladimir B; Qian, Pei-Yuan

2014-10-01

Abnormality and disease in sponges have been widely reported, yet how sponge-associated microbes respond correspondingly remains inconclusive. Here, individuals of the sponge Carteriospongia foliascens under abnormal status were collected from the Rabigh Bay along the Red Sea coast. Microbial communities in both healthy and abnormal sponge tissues and adjacent seawater were compared to check the influences of these abnormalities on sponge-associated microbes. In healthy tissues, we revealed low microbial diversity with less than 100 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) per sample. Cyanobacteria, affiliated mainly with the sponge-specific species "Candidatus Synechococcus spongiarum," were the dominant bacteria, followed by Bacteroidetes and Proteobacteria. Intraspecies dynamics of microbial communities in healthy tissues were observed among sponge individuals, and potential anoxygenic phototrophic bacteria were found. In comparison with healthy tissues and the adjacent seawater, abnormal tissues showed dramatic increase in microbial diversity and decrease in the abundance of sponge-specific microbial clusters. The dominated cyanobacterial species Candidatus Synechococcus spongiarum decreased and shifted to unspecific cyanobacterial clades. OTUs that showed high similarity to sequences derived from diseased corals, such as Leptolyngbya sp., were found to be abundant in abnormal tissues. Heterotrophic Planctomycetes were also specifically enriched in abnormal tissues. Overall, we revealed the microbial communities of the cyanobacteria-rich sponge, C. foliascens, and their impressive shifts under abnormality.

Balancing Europe's wind power output through spatial deployment informed by weather regimes.

Science.gov (United States)

Grams, Christian M; Beerli, Remo; Pfenninger, Stefan; Staffell, Iain; Wernli, Heini

2017-08-01

As wind and solar power provide a growing share of Europe's electricity1, understanding and accommodating their variability on multiple timescales remains a critical problem. On weekly timescales, variability is related to long-lasting weather conditions, called weather regimes2-5, which can cause lulls with a loss of wind power across neighbouring countries6. Here we show that weather regimes provide a meteorological explanation for multi-day fluctuations in Europe's wind power and can help guide new deployment pathways which minimise this variability. Mean generation during different regimes currently ranges from 22 GW to 44 GW and is expected to triple by 2030 with current planning strategies. However, balancing future wind capacity across regions with contrasting inter-regime behaviour - specifically deploying in the Balkans instead of the North Sea - would almost eliminate these output variations, maintain mean generation, and increase fleet-wide minimum output. Solar photovoltaics could balance low-wind regimes locally, but only by expanding current capacity tenfold. New deployment strategies based on an understanding of continent-scale wind patterns and pan-European collaboration could enable a high share of wind energy whilst minimising the negative impacts of output variability.

Regimes of Diurnal Variation of Summer Rainfall over Subtropical East Asia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yuan W.; Lin W.; Yu, R.; Zhang, M.; Chen, H.; Li, J.

2012-05-01

Using hourly rain gauge records and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 from 1998 to 2006, the authors present an analysis of the diurnal characteristics of summer rainfall over subtropical East Asia. The study shows that there are four different regimes of distinct diurnal variation of rainfall in both the rain gauge and the satellite data. They are located over the Tibetan Plateau with late-afternoon and midnight peaks, in the western China plain with midnight to early-morning peaks, in the eastern China plain with double peaks in late afternoon and early morning, and over the East China Sea with an early-morning peak. No propagation of diurnal phases is found from the land to the ocean across the coastlines. The different diurnal regimes are highly correlated with the inhomogeneous underlying surface, such as the plateau, plain, and ocean, with physical mechanisms consistent with the large-scale 'mountain-valley' and 'land-sea' breezes and convective instability. These diurnal characteristics over subtropical East Asia can be used as diagnostic metrics to evaluate the physical parameterization and hydrological cycle of climate models over East Asia.

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; Rode, Karyn D; St Martin, Michelle

2016-08-17

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears. © 2016 The Author(s).

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; Rode, Karyn D.; St Martin, Michelle

2016-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears.

Flow and heat transfer in laminar–turbulent transitional flow regime under rolling motion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan, Hongsheng; Tan, Sichao; Zhuang, Nailiang; Lan, Shu

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Flow and heat transfer experiment in transitional flow regime under rolling motion. • Increases of average friction factor and Nu were found. • Periodic breakdown of laminar flow contributes to the increase. • Nonlinear variation of pressure drop or Nu with Re also contributes to the increase. • Effect of critical Reynolds number shift was discussed. - Abstract: Flow and heat transfer characteristics under rolling motion are extremely important to thermohydraulic analysis of offshore nuclear reactors. An experimental study was conducted in a heated rectangular channel to investigate flow and heat transfer in laminar–turbulent transitional flow regime under rolling motion. The results showed that the average friction factor and Nusselt number are higher than that of the corresponding steady flow as the flow rate fluctuates in transitional flow regime. Larger relative flow rate fluctuation was observed under larger rolling amplitude or higher rolling frequency. In the same manner, larger increases of average friction factor and Nusselt number were achieved under larger rolling amplitude or higher rolling frequency. The increases were mainly caused by the flow rate fluctuation through periodic breakdown of laminar flow and development of turbulence in laminar–turbulent transitional flow regime. First, turbulence, which enhances the rate of momentum and energy exchange, occurs near the crest of flow rate wave even the flow is still in laminar flow regime according to the average Reynolds number. Second, as a result of rapid increases of the friction and heat transfer with Reynolds number in transitional flow regime, the increases of the friction and the heat transfer near the crest of flow rate wave are larger than the decreases of them near the trough of flow rate wave, which also contributes to increases of average friction and heat transfer. Additionally, the effect of critical Reynolds number shift under unsteady flow and heating

Profiling bacterial communities associated with sediment-based aquaculture bioremediation systems under contrasting redox regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, Georgina; Caldwell, Gary S.; Wade, Matthew J.; Free, Andrew; Jones, Clifford L. W.; Stead, Selina M.

2016-12-01

Deposit-feeding invertebrates are proposed bioremediators in microbial-driven sediment-based aquaculture effluent treatment systems. We elucidate the role of the sediment reduction-oxidation (redox) regime in structuring benthic bacterial communities, having direct implications for bioremediation potential and deposit-feeder nutrition. The sea cucumber Holothuria scabra was cultured on sediments under contrasting redox regimes; fully oxygenated (oxic) and redox stratified (oxic-anoxic). Taxonomically, metabolically and functionally distinct bacterial communities developed between the redox treatments with the oxic treatment supporting the greater diversity; redox regime and dissolved oxygen levels were the main environmental drivers. Oxic sediments were colonised by nitrifying bacteria with the potential to remediate nitrogenous wastes. Percolation of oxygenated water prevented the proliferation of anaerobic sulphate-reducing bacteria, which were prevalent in the oxic-anoxic sediments. At the predictive functional level, bacteria within the oxic treatment were enriched with genes associated with xenobiotics metabolism. Oxic sediments showed the greater bioremediation potential; however, the oxic-anoxic sediments supported a greater sea cucumber biomass. Overall, the results indicate that bacterial communities present in fully oxic sediments may enhance the metabolic capacity and bioremediation potential of deposit-feeder microbial systems. This study highlights the benefits of incorporating deposit-feeding invertebrates into effluent treatment systems, particularly when the sediment is oxygenated.

DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN NIGERIA: A MARKOV REGIME-SWITCHING APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akinlo A. Enisan

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Several studies have analyzed the movement of foreign direct investment in Nigeria using linear approach. In contrast with all existing studies in Nigeria, this paper runs several non linear FDI equations where the main determinants of FDI are determined using Markov- Regime Switching Model (MSMs. The approach enables us to observe structural changes, where exist, in FDI equations through time. Asides, where FDI regression equation is truly nonlinear, MSMs fit data better than the linear models. The paper adopts maximum likelihood methodology of Markov-Regime Model (MSM to identify possible structural changes in level and/or trends and possible changes in parameters of independent variables through the transition probabilities. The results show that FDI process in Nigeria is governed by two different regimes and a shift from one regime to another regime depends on transition probabilities. The results show that the main determinants of FDI are GDP growth, macro instability, financial development, exchange rate, inflation and discount rate. This implies liberalization that stems inflation and enhance the value of domestic currency will attract more FDI into the country.

Influence of Meteorological Regimes on Cloud Microphysics Over Ross Island, Antarctica

Science.gov (United States)

Glennon, C.; Wang, S. H.; Scott, R. C.; Bromwich, D. H.; Lubin, D.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic provides a sharp contrast in cloud microphysics from the high Arctic, due to orographic lifting and resulting strong vertical motions induced by mountain ranges and other varying terrain on several spatial scales. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) deployed advanced cloud remote sensing equipment to Ross Island, Antarctica, from December 2015 until January 2016. This equipment included scanning and zenith radars operating in the Ka and X bands, a high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL), and a polarized micropulse lidar (MPL). A major AWARE objective is to provide state-of-the-art data for improving cloud microphysical parameterizations in climate models. To further this objective we have organized and classified the local Ross Island meteorology into distinct regimes using k-means clustering on ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We identify synoptic categories producing unique regimes of cloud cover and cloud microphysical properties over Ross Island. Each day of observations can then be associated with a specific meteorological regime, thus assisting modelers with identifying case studies. High-resolution (1 km) weather forecasts from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) are sorted into these categories. AMPS-simulated anomalies of cloud fraction, near-surface air temperature, and vertical velocity at 500-mb are composited and compared with ground-based radar and lidar-derived cloud properties to identify mesoscale meteorological processes driving Antarctic cloud formation. Synoptic lows over the Ross and Amundsen Seas drive anomalously warm conditions at Ross Island by injecting marine air masses inland over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). This results in ice and mixed-phase orographic cloud systems arriving at Ross Island from the south to southeast along the Transantarctic Mountains. In contrast, blocking over the Amundsen Sea region brings classical liquid-dominated mixed-phase and

Climate regime shifts in paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula: from the Preclassic to Classic period

Science.gov (United States)

Polanco Martínez, Josue M.; Medina-Elizalde, Martin; Burns, Stephen J.; Jiang, Xiuyang; Shen, Chuan-Chou

2015-04-01

It has been widely accepted by the paleoclimate and archaeology communities that extreme climate events (especially droughts) and past climate change played an important role in the cultural changes that occurred in at least some parts of the Maya Lowlands, from the Pre-Classic (2000 BC to 250 AD) to Post-Classic periods (1000 to 1521 AD) [1, 2]. In particular, a large number of studies suggest that the decline of the Maya civilization in the Terminal Classic Period was greatly influenced by prolonged severe drought events that probably triggered significant societal disruptions [1, 3, 4, 5]. Going further on these issues, the aim of this work is to detect climate regime shifts in several paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula (México) that have been used as rainfall proxies [3, 5, 6, 7]. In order to extract information from the paleoclimate data studied, we have used a change point method [8] as implemented in the R package strucchange, as well as the RAMFIT method [9]. The preliminary results show for all the records analysed a prominent regime shift between 400 to 200 BCE (from a noticeable increase to a remarkable fall in precipitation), which is strongest in the recently obtained stalagmite (Itzamna) delta18-O precipitation record [7]. References [1] Gunn, J. D., Matheny, R. T., Folan, W. J., 2002. Climate-change studies in the Maya area. Ancient Mesoamerica, 13(01), 79-84. [2] Yaeger, J., Hodell, D. A., 2008. The collapse of Maya civilization: assessing the interaction of culture, climate, and environment. El Niño, Catastrophism, and Culture Change in Ancient America, 197-251. [3] Hodell, D. A., Curtis, J. H., Brenner, M., 1995. Possible role of climate in the collapse of Classic Maya civilization. Nature, 375(6530), 391-394. [4] Aimers, J., Hodell, D., 2011. Societal collapse: Drought and the Maya. Nature 479(7371), 44-45 (2011). [5] Medina-Elizalde, M., Rohling, E. J., 2012. Collapse of Classic Maya civilization related to modest reduction

Long term persistence in the sea surface temperature fluctuations

OpenAIRE

Monetti, Roberto A.; Havlin, Shlomo; Bunde, Armin

2002-01-01

We study the temporal correlations in the sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations around the seasonal mean values in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. We apply a method that systematically overcome possible trends in the data. We find that the SST persistence, characterized by the correlation $C(s)$ of temperature fluctuations separated by a time period $s$, displays two different regimes. In the short-time regime which extends up to roughly 10 months, the temperature fluctuations display a...

Towards a green urban economy? Unravelling urban sustainability transitions from a regime perspective

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mans, U.; Meerow, S.

2012-01-01

The current debate about sustainability transitions has embraced the multi-level perspective as a useful methodological tool for assessing the dynamics that are at play between landscape, regime and niche. As a consequence, the thinking about socio-technical transitions has gradually shifted in

Hydrologic Control on Bacterial Nitrogen Fixation in the Holocene Black Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Fulton, J. M.; Arthur, M. A.; Freeman, K. H.

2008-12-01

Stratified oceans of the Phanerozoic Oceanic Anoxic Events apparently were dominated by bacterial nitrogen fixation. Decreased marine N:P nutrient ratios resulting from increased denitrification and decreased phosphate burial efficiency under anoxic waters drove this nutrient regime. This model is upheld by the presence of cyanobacterial hopanoid biomarkers in sedimentary records and δ15N values indicative of nitrogen fixation. However, in the largest modern redox-stratified marine basin, the Black Sea, bacterial nitrogen fixation seems to be only a minor contributor to the nitrogen cycle. In this study, we use geochemical proxies to evaluate the role of bacterial nitrogen fixation during the deposition of the Holocene Black Sea sapropel, starting 7.8 ka. We report compound-specific nitrogen and carbon stable isotope values of pyropheophytin a, a chlorophyll degradation product, and bacteriochlorophyll e produced by green sulfur bacteria. We also present the surprising finding of scytonemin, a pigment produced only by filamentous cyanobacteria exposed to ultraviolet radiation, in certain intervals in these sediments. In the Holocene, nitrogen fixation in the Black Sea is most prominent during times of reduced river water influx. This directly decreases the external flux of nitrate into the surface waters. Reduced freshwater influx also decreases the volume of low salinity water dispersed around the sea by the Rim Current, allowing the chemocline to shoal along the margins. Previous geochemical studies have described this changing chemocline geometry. The exposure of shallow water sediments to anoxic waters further stimulates nitrogen fixation by releasing more phosphorus to the system. Nitrogen fixation is recorded in the sediments as bulk and compound-specific pyropheophytin a δ15N values near 0 ‰ and -5 ‰, respectively. We have also detected scytonemin in two intervals characterized by especially low δ15N values. This compound suggests abundant filamentous

Chemical oceanography in the Cretan Sea: Changes associated to the transient

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. SOUVERMEZOGLOU

2000-12-01

Full Text Available The intensive research since 1985 in the framework of national and international programmes revealed important modifications in oxygen and nutrients distribution in the Cretan Sea. The significant increase of density and of formation rates of the Cretan Dense Water (CDW during the last decade is basically responsible for the drastic change of the thermohaline circulation and the installation of a new hydrological regime in the Eastern Mediterranean. In the Cretan Sea, the most important effect of the new regime, is the installation of a well-defined "minimum salinity, temperature, oxygen and maximum nutrient" intermediate layer formed by the intrusion of the Transitional Mediterranean Water (TMW compensating the massive CDW outflow. The nutrient enrichment of the intermediate layers of the Cretan Sea, due to the intrusion of the "nutrient rich-oxygen poor" TMW, was observed firstly in 1991 and became very important during 1994-95. During 1994-95 the TMW occupies the intermediate layers of the entire Cretan Sea and the concentrations of nutrients in this layer are often two times higher than in the past. Recently, in 1997-98 the chemical characteristics of TMW are less pronounced probably related to the weaker CDW outflow.

Ontogenetic and seasonal shifts in the diet of the pemecou sea catfish Sciades herzbergii (Siluriformes: Ariidae), from a macrotidal mangrove creek in the Curuçá estuary, northern Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Giarrizzo, Tommaso; Saint-Paul, Ulrich

2008-06-01

The feeding ecology of pemecou sea catfish (Sciades herzbergii) was studied bimonthly from September 2003 to July 2004 in a macrotidal mangrove creek at Curuçá estuary, Brazil. Feeding activity and relative importance of prey groups were assessed in 528 and 226 specimens (6.2 to 36.0 cm total length), respectively, using stomach contents. A total of 1 820 specimens were caught. The fish left the creek with an average of 2.2% of their body weight in prey. Feeding activity was lower in the dry season (September and November 2003) than in the rainy season (January to May 2004). The diet was dominated by Ocypodidae and Grapsidae. Feeding strategies of the pemecou sea catfish indicated a slight variation between the diets of adults and juveniles; however; the main factor leading to diversification in the diet were the seasons. Opportunistic feeding behavior was observed in the dry season, shifting to more specialized feeding in the wet season. This temporal diet shift may be explained by the environmental seasonal variations (e.g., transparency of the water, high water level) in the intertidal mangrove creek habitat.

Influence of seasonal variations in sea level on the salinity regime of a coastal groundwater-fed wetland.

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Cameron; Harrington, Glenn A

2015-01-01

Seasonal variations in sea level are often neglected in studies of coastal aquifers; however, they may have important controls on processes such as submarine groundwater discharge, sea water intrusion, and groundwater discharge to coastal springs and wetlands. We investigated seasonal variations in salinity in a groundwater-fed coastal wetland (the RAMSAR listed Piccaninnie Ponds in South Australia) and found that salinity peaked during winter, coincident with seasonal sea level peaks. Closer examination of salinity variations revealed a relationship between changes in sea level and changes in salinity, indicating that sea level-driven movement of the fresh water-sea water interface influences the salinity of discharging groundwater in the wetland. Moreover, the seasonal control of sea level on wetland salinity seems to override the influence of seasonal recharge. A two-dimensional variable density model helped validate this conceptual model of coastal groundwater discharge by showing that fluctuations in groundwater salinity in a coastal aquifer can be driven by a seasonal coastal boundary condition in spite of seasonal recharge/discharge dynamics. Because seasonal variations in sea level and coastal wetlands are ubiquitous throughout the world, these findings have important implications for monitoring and management of coastal groundwater-dependent ecosystems. © 2014, National Ground Water Association.

Geophysical Imaging of Sea-level Proxies in Beach-Ridge Deposits

Science.gov (United States)

Nielsen, L.; Emerich Souza, P.; Meldgaard, A.; Bendixen, M.; Kroon, A.; Clemmensen, L. B.

2017-12-01

We show ground-penetrating radar (GPR) reflection data collected over modern and fossil beach deposits from different localities along coastlines in meso-tidal regimes of Greenland and micro-tidal regimes of Denmark. The acquired reflection GPR sections show several similar characteristics but also some differences. A similar characteristic is the presence of downlapping reflections, where the downlap point is interpreted to mark the transition from upper shoreface to beachface deposits and, thus, be a marker of a level close to or at sea-level at the time of deposition. Differences in grain size of the investigated beach ridge system result in different scattering characteristics of the acquired GPR data. These differences call for tailored, careful processing of the GPR data for optimal imaging of internal beach ridge architecture. We outline elements of the GPR data processing of particular importance for optimal imaging. Moreover, we discuss advantages and challenges related to using GPR-based proxies of sea-level as compared to other methods traditionally used for establishment of curves of past sea-level variation.

Extreme Temperature Regimes during the Cool Season and their Associated Large-Scale Circulations

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Z.

2015-12-01

In the cool season (November-March), extreme temperature events (ETEs) always hit the continental United States (US) and provide significant societal impacts. According to the anomalous amplitudes of the surface air temperature (SAT), there are two typical types of ETEs, e.g. cold waves (CWs) and warm waves (WWs). This study used cluster analysis to categorize both CWs and WWs into four distinct regimes respectively and investigated their associated large-scale circulations on intra-seasonal time scale. Most of the CW regimes have large areal impact over the continental US. However, the distribution of cold SAT anomalies varies apparently in four regimes. In the sea level, the four CW regimes are characterized by anomalous high pressure over North America (near and to west of cold anomaly) with different extension and orientation. As a result, anomalous northerlies along east flank of anomalous high pressure convey cold air into the continental US. To the middle troposphere, the leading two groups feature large-scale and zonally-elongated circulation anomaly pattern, while the other two regimes exhibit synoptic wavetrain pattern with meridionally elongated features. As for the WW regimes, there are some patterns symmetry and anti-symmetry with respect to CW regimes. The WW regimes are characterized by anomalous low pressure and southerlies wind over North America. The first and fourth groups are affected by remote forcing emanating from North Pacific, while the others appear mainly locally forced.

The Governance of Multi-Use Platforms at Sea for Energy Production and Aquaculture: Challenges for Policy Makers in European Seas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marian Stuiver

2016-04-01

Full Text Available European seas are encountering an upsurge in competing marine activities and infrastructures. Traditional exploitation such as fisheries, tourism, transportation, and oil production are accompanied by new sustainable economic activities such as offshore windfarms, aquaculture, and tidal and wave energy. One proposed solution to overcome possible competing claims at sea lies in combining these economic activities as part of Multi-Use Platforms at Sea (MUPS. MUPS can be understood as areas at sea, designated for a combination of activities, either completely integrated in a platform or in shared marine space. MUPS can potentially benefit from each other in terms of infrastructure, maintenance, etc. Developing MUPS in the marine environment demands adequate governance. In this article, we investigate four European sites to find out how governance arrangements may facilitate or complicate MUPs. In particular, we apply a framework specifying policy, economic, social, technical, environmental, and legal (PESTEL factors to explore governance arrangements in four case study sites in different sea basins around Europe (the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, the North Sea, and the Baltic Sea. The article concludes with policy recommendations on a governance regime for facilitating the development of MUPS in the future.

Size-Dependent Shifts of Plasmon Resonance in Silver Nanoparticle Films Using Controlled Dissolution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mogensen, Klaus Bo; Kneipp, Katrin

2014-01-01

to a transition from an extrinsic regime for the larger particles, where shifts of the plasmon frequency are related to changes in the dielectric environment, while the dielectric function of the metal is constant, to an intrinsic regime for the smaller particles. For this intrinsic regime, operative for small...... in a corrected electron density. The reported results have potential for developing nanosensors based on small nanoparticles below 5 nm in size by using their intrinsic response to adsorbed analytes. This detection scheme suggests a potential increase in the sensitivity of up to 3×, particularly when redox...

The Behavior of Interest Rate Differentials Under Shifting Exchange Rate Regimes: The Experience of Chile, Colombia and Israel

OpenAIRE

Carlos Ibarra

2005-01-01

This paper studies the dynamics of the interest rate differential across band and floating exchange rate regimes in Chile, Colombia and Israel, and in a benchmark group composed of Italy, Portugal and Spain. Significant differences in the interest rate-exchange rate link are found between the two groups, irrespective of regime. However, in all countries, except Italy, the interest differential ceased to behave anti-cyclically against output after the adoption of floating, possibly because of ...

Shifts in North Sea forage fish productivity and potential fisheries yield

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Worsøe Clausen, Lotte; Rindorf, Anna; van Deurs, Mikael

2018-01-01

productivity. Furthermore, from an ecosystem-based fisheries management perspective, a link between functional complementarity and productivity, indicates that ecosystem resilience may decline with productivity. Based on this, we advise that system productivity, perhaps monitored as forage fish growth, becomes......1. Forage fish populations support large scale fisheries and are key components of marine ecosystems across the world, linking secondary production to higher trophic levels. While climate-induced changes in the North Sea zooplankton community are described and documented in literature......, the associated bottom-up effects and consequences for fisheries remain largely unidentified. 2. We investigated the temporal development in forage fish productivity and the associated influence on fisheries yield of herring, sprat, Norway pout and sandeel in the North Sea. Using principal component analysis, we...

Making the ecosystem approach operational-Can regime shifts in ecological- and governance systems facilitate the transition?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Österblom, H.; Gårdmark, A.; Bergström, L.

2010-01-01

Effectively reducing cumulative impacts on marine ecosystems requires co-evolution between science, policy and practice. Here, long-term social–ecological changes in the Baltic Sea are described, illustrating how the process of making the ecosystem approach operational in a large marine ecosystem...... stimulating innovations and re-organizing governance structures at drainage basin level to the Baltic Sea catchment as a whole. Experimentation and innovation at local to the regional levels is critical for a transition to ecosystem-based management. Establishing science-based learning platforms at sub...

Pyrosequencing Reveals the Microbial Communities in the Red Sea Sponge Carteriospongia foliascens and Their Impressive Shifts in Abnormal Tissues

KAUST Repository

Gao, Zhaoming

2014-04-24

Abnormality and disease in sponges have been widely reported, yet how sponge-associated microbes respond correspondingly remains inconclusive. Here, individuals of the sponge Carteriospongia foliascens under abnormal status were collected from the Rabigh Bay along the Red Sea coast. Microbial communities in both healthy and abnormal sponge tissues and adjacent seawater were compared to check the influences of these abnormalities on sponge-associated microbes. In healthy tissues, we revealed low microbial diversity with less than 100 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) per sample. Cyanobacteria, affiliated mainly with the sponge-specific species “Candidatus Synechococcus spongiarum,” were the dominant bacteria, followed by Bacteroidetes and Proteobacteria. Intraspecies dynamics of microbial communities in healthy tissues were observed among sponge individuals, and potential anoxygenic phototrophic bacteria were found. In comparison with healthy tissues and the adjacent seawater, abnormal tissues showed dramatic increase in microbial diversity and decrease in the abundance of sponge-specific microbial clusters. The dominated cyanobacterial species Candidatus Synechococcus spongiarum decreased and shifted to unspecific cyanobacterial clades. OTUs that showed high similarity to sequences derived from diseased corals, such as Leptolyngbya sp., were found to be abundant in abnormal tissues. Heterotrophic Planctomycetes were also specifically enriched in abnormal tissues. Overall, we revealed the microbial communities of the cyanobacteria-rich sponge, C. foliascens, and their impressive shifts under abnormality.

The Hamburg sea-ice model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stoessel, A.; Owens, W.B.

1992-10-01

The general purpose of the model is to simulate sea ice dynamically as well as thermodynamically. Pure sea-ice models are generally highly dependent on the specified atmospheric and oceanic forcing, especially on the winds and the vertical oceanic heat flux. In order to reduce these dependencies, the sea-ice [SI] model was extended to optionally include a prognostic oceanic mixed layer [OML], a diagnostic atmospheric surface layer [ASL] and/or a diagnostic atmospheric boundary layer [ABL], thus shifting the forcing levels further away from the surface (i.e. from the sea ice) and simultaneously providing a modification of the forcing considering boundary-layer adjustments to the instantaneous sea-ice conditions given by the SI model. A further major extension of the model is the (optional) employment of a prognostic snow layer. The special application characterising the present code was sea-ice simulation in the Southern Ocean, employing a spherical, circumpolar grid with a resolution of 2.5 in latitude and 5 in longitude, extending from 50 S to 80 S and using a daily time step. (orig.)

North Sea ecosystem change from swimming crabs to seagulls.

Science.gov (United States)

Luczak, C; Beaugrand, G; Lindley, J A; Dewarumez, J-M; Dubois, P J; Kirby, R R

2012-10-23

A recent increase in sea temperature has established a new ecosystem dynamic regime in the North Sea. Climate-induced changes in decapods have played an important role. Here, we reveal a coincident increase in the abundance of swimming crabs and lesser black-backed gull colonies in the North Sea, both in time and in space. Swimming crabs are an important food source for lesser black-backed gulls during the breeding season. Inhabiting the land, but feeding mainly at sea, lesser black-backed gulls provide a link between marine and terrestrial ecosystems, since the bottom-up influence of allochthonous nutrient input from seabirds to coastal soils can structure the terrestrial food web. We, therefore, suggest that climate-driven changes in trophic interactions in the marine food web may also have ensuing ramifications for the coastal ecology of the North Sea.

Abrupt environmental shift associated with changes in the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In addition, signals, coherent with the 1996 shift recorded in sea surface temperatures, were also found in atmospheric surface pressure and zonal wind data for that region; interannual coastal SST variability is also shown to be correlated with zonal wind-stress forcing. As a result, increased wind-induced coastal upwelling ...

The magnetic epoch-6 carbon shift: a change in the ocean's 13C/12C ratio 6.2 million years ago

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vincent, E.; Killingley, J.S.; Berger, W.H.

1980-01-01

Tropical Indian Ocean planktonic and benthic foraminifera have 13 C/ 12 C ratios which change abruptly within Magnetic Epoch 6 about 6.2 million years ago. All species analyzed in the Late Miocene section of DSDP Site 238 show a shift towards lighter values of delta 13 C by about 0.8 per thousand. The oxygen isotope signal indicates that the pre-shift period is climatically quiet while the post-shift period has strong fluctuations. The authors suggest that the shift reflects a sudden increase in the rate of supply of organic carbon from coastal lowlands and from shelves exposed by regression, as well as a change in deep circulation patterns and ocean fertility. The event marks the transition of the ocean-atmosphere system from a quiet Early and Middle Neogene climate regime toward a Late Neogene regime characterized by climatic amplifying mechanisms (albedo feedback, bottom water production) located around the northern North Atlantic. The beginning of this regime may have been strongly influenced by the isolation of the Mediterranean basin. (Auth.)

The shift of accounting models and accounting quality: the case of Norwegian GAAP

OpenAIRE

Stenheim, Tonny; Madsen, Dag Øivind

2017-01-01

This is an Open Access journal available from http://www.virtusinterpress.org This paper investigates the change in accounting quality w hen firms shift from a revenue - oriented historical cost accounting regime as Norwegian GAAP (NGAAP) to a balance - oriented fair value accounting regime as International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Previous studies have demonstrated mixed effects o n the accounting quality upon IFRS adoption. One possible reason is that the investigated domest...

Quantification of Multiple Climate Change and Human Activity Impact Factors on Flood Regimes in the Pearl River Delta of China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yihan Tang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Coastal flood regimes have been irreversibly altered by both climate change and human activities. This paper aims to quantify the impacts of multiple factors on delta flood. The Pearl River Delta (PRD, with dense river network and population, is one of the most developed coastal areas in China. The recorded extreme water level (m.s.l. in flood season has been heavily interfered with by varied income flood flow, sea-level rise, and dredged riverbeds. A methodology, composed of a numerical model and the index R, has been developed to quantify the impacts of these driving factors in the the PRD. Results show that the flood level varied 4.29%–53.49% from the change of fluvial discharge, 3.35%–38.73% from riverbed dredging, and 0.12%–16.81% from sea-level rise. The variation of flood flow apparently takes the most effect and sea-level rise the least. In particular, dense river network intensifies the impact of income flood change and sea-level rise. Findings from this study help understand the causes of the the PRD flood regimes and provide theoretical support for flood protection in the delta region.

Understanding regime shifts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heymann, Matthias; Nielsen, Kristian Hvidtfelt

Wind power was an important power source not only in the preindustrial era but also into the nineteenth and early twentieth century. In most regions by the mid twentieth century the ubiquitous windmill was quickly replaced by alternative power sources, mainly electricity. Efforts to revive wind...... in Denmark proved more successful than heavily funded efforts in the USA, Sweden or Germany. Within few years, Danish wind turbines dominated California wind parks and outclassed the turbines from other producers. Since the 1980s, all successful wind turbine producers copied basic features of “Danish Design...

The political use of psychiatry: A comparison between totalitarian regimes.

Science.gov (United States)

Buoli, Massimiliano; Giannuli, Aldo Sabino

2017-03-01

After the end of Second World War, the recent experience of the Nazi horrors stimulated a debate about the political use of psychiatry. Over the years, the focus shifted on major dictatorships of the time and especially on Soviet Union. This article aims to provide a critical review of the ways in which psychiatry was used by totalitarian regimes of the 20th century. We summarized relevant literature about political use of psychiatry in totalitarian regimes of the 20th century, with particular focus on Fascism, Nazism, Argentina dictatorship, Soviet Union and China. One of the features that are common to most of the dictatorships is that the use of psychiatry has become more prominent when the regimes have had the need to make more acceptable the imprisonment of enemies in the eyes of the world. This for example happened in the Nazi regime when sterilization and killing of psychiatric patients was explained as a kind of euthanasia, or in the Soviet Union after the formal closure of the corrective labor camps and the slow resumption of relations with the capitalistic world, or in China to justify persecution of religious minorities and preserve economic relations with Western countries. Psychiatry has been variously used by totalitarian regimes as a means of political persecution and especially when it was necessary to make acceptable to public opinion the imprisonment of political opponents.

Estimation of eddy diffusivity coefficient of heat in the upper layers of equatorial Arabian Sea

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Zavialov, P.O.; Murty, V.S.N.

in the Central Equatorial Arabian Sea (CEAS). A comparison of the model computed K sub(h) values with those estimated from the heat balance of the upper layer (50 m) of the sea shows good agreement in the region of weak winds (CEAS) or low turbulent mixing regime...

Evaluation of Five Different Regimes For the Treatment of Vitiligo

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J S Pasricha

1989-01-01

Full Text Available Response of vitiligo patients to five different regimes was evaluated taking only those patients who had either static or progressively increasing lesions. Selection of the regimen depended upon the clinical characteristics of the disease. Each regime was tried for at least 4 months and if a patient didnot improve with one regime, he was shifted to another regime. A patient was considered to have improved, if the lesions started regimenting or the previously progressive lesions stopped increasing further. Regime I consisted of 150 mg levamisol orally on two consecutive days per week, given to 13 cases, it resulted in improvement in 7 (53.80/o. Regime II consisted of levamisole in the same dose combined with once a day topical massage with 0.1% fluocinolone acetonide acetate cream; it led to improvement in 27 (81.8% of the 33 cases. Regime III consisted of 3 mg betamethasone orally on alternate days combined with levamisole and topical fluocinolone; given to 32 cases, it was successful in 28 (87.50/o. A combination of 2 mg betamethasone orally alternating with 20 mg 8-methoxypsoralen and sun exposure (regime IV caused improvement in 17 (85% of the 20 cases. An oral mini pulse consisting of 5 mg betamethasone orally twice a week combined with 50 mg cyclophosphimide daily orally (regime V was successful in 20 (90.9% of the 22 cases, the remaining two cases showed unprovement when the dose ofbetamethasonc .was increased from 5 mg to 7.5 mg twice a week. Thus ultimately each one of the 91 patients responded to one or the other regime. The side effects were minimal and insignificant.The degree of improvement at the time of analysis was 100% in 23.3% cases, 50-100% in 44.2′Yo cases and less than 50% in 32.5%, after 4-14 months of treatment. It is felt that the results may be better after a longer follow-up although all patients are not expected to get complete repigmentation.

Analytical theory for the nuclear level shift of hadronic atoms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kudryavtsev, A.E.; Lisin, V.I.; Popov, V.S.

1982-01-01

The spectrum problem in the Coulomb potential distorted at small distances is considered. Nuclear shifts of 3-levels in p anti p and Σ - p atoms are calculated. The probabilities of radiative transitions from p-states to the shifted s-states in hadronic atom are also given. It is shown that the reconstruction of atomic levels switches to oscillation regime when absorption increases. The limits of applicability of the perturbation theory in terms of the scattering length for different values of absorption is discussed. An exactly solvable model, Coulomb plus Yamaguchi potential, is considered

Dispersal limitation drives successional pathways in Central Siberian forests under current and intensified fire regimes.

Science.gov (United States)

Tautenhahn, Susanne; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Jung, Martin; Kattge, Jens; Bohlman, Stephanie A; Heilmeier, Hermann; Prokushkin, Anatoly; Kahl, Anja; Wirth, Christian

2016-06-01

Fire is a primary driver of boreal forest dynamics. Intensifying fire regimes due to climate change may cause a shift in boreal forest composition toward reduced dominance of conifers and greater abundance of deciduous hardwoods, with potential biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks to regional and global climate. This shift has already been observed in some North American boreal forests and has been attributed to changes in site conditions. However, it is unknown if the mechanisms controlling fire-induced changes in deciduous hardwood cover are similar among different boreal forests, which differ in the ecological traits of the dominant tree species. To better understand the consequences of intensifying fire regimes in boreal forests, we studied postfire regeneration in five burns in the Central Siberian dark taiga, a vast but poorly studied boreal region. We combined field measurements, dendrochronological analysis, and seed-source maps derived from high-resolution satellite images to quantify the importance of site conditions (e.g., organic layer depth) vs. seed availability in shaping postfire regeneration. We show that dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers was the main factor determining postfire regeneration composition and density. Site conditions had significant but weaker effects. We used information on postfire regeneration to develop a classification scheme for successional pathways, representing the dominance of deciduous hardwoods vs. evergreen conifers at different successional stages. We estimated the spatial distribution of different successional pathways under alternative fire regime scenarios. Under intensified fire regimes, dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers is predicted to become more severe, primarily due to reduced abundance of surviving seed sources within burned areas. Increased dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers, in turn, is predicted to increase the prevalence of successional pathways dominated by deciduous hardwoods

Multi-phase structural and tectonic evolution of the Andaman Sea Region

Science.gov (United States)

Masterton, Sheona; Hill, Catherine; Sagi, David Adam; Webb, Peter; Sevastjanova, Inga

2017-04-01

We present a new regional tectonic interpretation for Myanmar and the Andaman Sea, built within the framework of global plate motions. In our model the Present Day Andaman Sea region has been subjected to multiple phases of extension, culminating in its mid-Miocene to Present Day opening as a rhomboidal pull-apart basin. The Andaman Sea region is historically thought to have developed as a consequence of back-arc opening associated with plate convergence at the Andaman-Nicobar subduction system. We have undertaken detailed structural interpretation of potential field, Landsat and SRTM data, supported by 2-D crustal models of the Andaman Sea. From this analysis we identified several major north-south striking faults and a series of northeast-southwest striking structures across the region. We have also mapped the extent of the Andaman-Nicobar Accretionary Prism, a fore arc trough and volcanic arc, which we associate with a phase of traditional trench-parallel back-arc extension from the Paleocene to the middle Miocene. A regional tectonic event occurred during the middle Miocene that caused the cessation of back-arc extension in the Present Day Andaman Sea and an eastward shift in the locus of arc-related volcanism. At that time, N-S striking faults onshore and offshore Myanmar were reactivated with widespread right-lateral motion. This motion, accompanied by extension along new NE-SW striking faults, facilitated the opening of the Central Andaman Basin as a pull-apart basin (rhombochasm) in which a strike-slip tectonic regime has a greater impact on the mode of opening than the subduction process. The integration of our plate model solution within a global framework allows identification of major plate reorganisation events and their impact on a regional scale. We therefore attribute the onset of pull-apart opening in the Andaman Sea to ongoing clockwise rotation of the western Sundaland margin throughout the late Paleogene and early Miocene, possibly driven by the

[Effect of climate change on the fisheries conununity pattern in the overwintering ground of open waters of northern East China Sea].

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zun-lei; Yuan, Xing-wei; Yang, Lin-lin; Yan, Li-ping; Tian, Yong-jun; Chen, Jia-hua

2015-03-01

Data sets of 26 fisheries target species from the fishery-depen-dent and fishery-independent surveys in the overwintering ground of open waters of northern East China Sea (OW-NECS), combined sea surface temperature (SST), were used to examine the links between diversity index, pattern of common variability and climate changes based on the principal component analysis (PCA) and generalized additive model (GAM). The results showed that the shift from a cold regime to a warm regime was detected in SST during the 1970s-2011 with step changes around 1982/ 1983. SST increased during the cold regime and the warm regime before 1998 (warming trend period, 1972-1998), and decreased during the warm regime after 1998 (cooling trend period, 1999-2011). Shannon diversity index was largely dependent on the filefish, which contributed up to 50% of the total production as a single species, with low diversity in the waters of the OW-NECS, during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Excluding the filefish, the diversity index linearly increased and decreased during 1972-1998 and 1999-2011, respectively. The variation pattern generally corresponds with the trend in water temperature, strongly suggesting the effect of the SST on the diversity. The first two components (PC1 and PC2) of PCA for target species, which accounted for 32.43% of the total variance, showed evident decadal variation patterns with a step change during 1992-1999 and inter-annual variability with short-period fluctuation, respectively. It seems that PC1 was associated with large scale climatic change, while PC2 was related to inter-annual oceanographic variability such as ENSO events. Linear fitting results showed winEOF1 had significant effect on PC1, and GAM analysis for PC1 showed that winter EOF1 (winEOF1) and summer EOF2 (sumEOF2) can explain 88.9% of the total variance. Nonlinear effect was also found between PC2 and win EOF1, indicating that the fish community structure, which had predominantly decadal

Roles of Sea Level and Climate Change in the Development of Holocene Deltaic Sequences in the Yellow Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, J.; Milliman, J. D.

2002-12-01

Both post-glacial sea-level and climatic changes are preserved in the the shallow, low gradient, sediment-dominated Yellow Sea. As a result of rapid flooding during melt-water pulse (MWP) 1A, 14.3-14.1 ka BP, sea level reached the southern edge of the North Yellow Sea (NYS), and after MWP-1B (11.6-11.4 ka BP) sea level entered the Bohai Sea. The first major Yellow River-derived deltaic deposit formed in the NYS during decelerated transgression following MWP-1B and increased river discharge in response to re-intensification of the summer monsoon about 11 ka cal BP. A second subaqueous delta formed in the South Yellow Sea about 9-7 ka BP during decelerated transgression after MWP-1C flooding and in response to the southern shift of the Yellow River mouth. The modern subaqueous and subaerial deltas in the west Bahai Gulf and (to a lesser extent) along the Jiangus coast have formed during the modern sea-level highstand. These changing Holocene patterns are most clearly illustrated by a short film clip.

Dynamical resonance shift and unification of resonances in short-pulse laser-cluster interaction

Science.gov (United States)

Mahalik, S. S.; Kundu, M.

2018-06-01

Pronounced maximum absorption of laser light irradiating a rare-gas or metal cluster is widely expected during the linear resonance (LR) when Mie-plasma wavelength λM of electrons equals the laser wavelength λ . On the contrary, by performing molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of an argon cluster irradiated by short 5-fs (FWHM) laser pulses it is revealed that, for a given laser pulse energy and a cluster, at each peak intensity there exists a λ —shifted from the expected λM—that corresponds to a unified dynamical LR at which evolution of the cluster happens through very efficient unification of possible resonances in various stages, including (i) the LR in the initial time of plasma creation, (ii) the LR in the Coulomb expanding phase in the later time, and (iii) anharmonic resonance in the marginally overdense regime for a relatively longer pulse duration, leading to maximum laser absorption accompanied by maximum removal of electrons from cluster and also maximum allowed average charge states for the argon cluster. Increasing the laser intensity, the absorption maxima is found to shift to a higher wavelength in the band of λ ≈(1 -1.5 ) λM than permanently staying at the expected λM. A naive rigid sphere model also corroborates the wavelength shift of the absorption peak as found in MD and unequivocally proves that maximum laser absorption in a cluster happens at a shifted λ in the marginally overdense regime of λ ≈(1 -1.5 ) λM instead of λM of LR. The present study is important for guiding an optimal condition laser-cluster interaction experiment in the short-pulse regime.

The diet of whiting Merlangius merlangus in the western Baltic Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ross, Stine Dalmann; Gislason, Henrik; Andersen, Niels Gerner

2016-01-01

The diet of whiting Merlangius merlangus in the western Baltic Sea was investigated and compared to the diet in the southern North Sea. Clupeids were important prey in both areas, but especially in the western Baltic Sea where they constituted up to 90% of the diet of larger individuals. Gobies......, brown shrimps and polychaetes were the main prey of juveniles in the western Baltic Sea, while a wider range of species were consumed in the North Sea. The shift to piscivory occurred at smaller sizes in the western Baltic Sea and the fish prey consumed was proportionately larger than in the southern...

Regime switching state-space models applied to psychological processes: handling missing data and making inferences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hamaker, E.L.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.

2012-01-01

Many psychological processes are characterized by recurrent shifts between distinct regimes or states. Examples that are considered in this paper are the switches between different states associated with premenstrual syndrome, hourly fluctuations in affect during a major depressive episode, and

Thermal Limits and Thresholds of Red Sea Biota

KAUST Repository

Chaidez, Veronica

2018-05-01

As ocean temperatures continue to rise, the effect of temperature on marine organisms becomes highly relevant. The Red Sea is the warmest sea and is rapidly warming with current surface temperatures (28 – 34 °C) already exceeding those of most tropical systems. This has major consequences for organisms that may already find themselves at their thermal limits. The aim of this project was to define the thermal limits and thresholds of certain Red Sea species. Firstly, to better understand the thermal regimes of the Red Sea, we looked at decadal trends in maximum sea surface temperature across the basin. Then, we tested the thermal capacities of Red Sea mangroves and zooplankton, two key ecological groups, by performing thermal stress experiments in the laboratory. We found that the Red Sea basin is warming faster than the global average (0.17 °C decade-1), the thermal limit of mangrove propagules is between 33 and 35 °C, and the limits among the most common zooplankton groups range from 30 to 36 °C. This project gives us a better understanding of how organisms respond to extreme temperatures and how they may be affected in a future, warmer, ocean.

Contrasting Arctic and Antarctic atmospheric responses to future sea-ice loss

Science.gov (United States)

England, M.; Polvani, L. M.; Sun, L.

2017-12-01

By the end of this century, the annual mean Antarctic sea ice area is projected to decline by over a third, an amount similar to that in the Arctic, but the effect of Antarctic sea ice loss on the atmosphere remains largely unexplored. Using the Community Earth Systems Model (CESM) Whole Atmosphere Coupled Climate Model (WACCM), we investigate the effect of future Antarctic sea ice loss, and contrast it with its Arctic counterpart. This is accomplished by analyzing integrations of the model with historic and future sea ice levels, using the RCP8.5 scenario. This allows us to disentangle the effect of future sea ice loss on the atmosphere from other aspects of the coupled system. We find that both Antarctic and Arctic sea ice loss act to shift the tropospheric jet equatorwards, counteracting the poleward shift due to increases in greenhouse gases. Although the total forcing to the atmosphere is similar in both hemispheres, the response to Arctic sea ice loss is larger in amplitude and but more seasonally varying, while the response in the Antarctic persists throughout the year but with a smaller amplitude. Furthermore, the atmospheric temperature response over the Antarctic is trapped closer to the surface than in the Arctic, and perhaps surprisingly, we find that the surface temperature response to Antarctic sea ice loss is unable to penetrate the Antarctic continent.

Shifts in North Sea forage fish productivity and potential fisheries yield

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Clausen, Lotte W.; Rindorf, Anna; Deurs, van Mikael; Dickey-Collas, Mark; Hintzen, Niels T.

2018-01-01

1. Forage fish populations support large scale fisheries and are key components of marine ecosystems across the world, linking secondary production to higher trophic levels. While climate-induced changes in the North Sea zooplankton community are described and documented in literature, the

Autumn atmospheric response to the 2007 low Arctic sea ice extent in coupled ocean-atmosphere hindcasts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Orsolini, Yvan J. [Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), PO BOX 100, Kjeller (Norway); Senan, Retish; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Melsom, Arne [Norwegian Meteorological Institute (met. no), Oslo (Norway)

2012-06-15

The autumn and early winter atmospheric response to the record-low Arctic sea ice extent at the end of summer 2007 is examined in ensemble hindcasts with prescribed sea ice extent, made with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecast model. Robust, warm anomalies over the Pacific and Siberian sectors of the Arctic, as high as 10 C at the surface, are found in October and November. A regime change occurs by December, characterized by weaker temperatures anomalies extending through the troposphere. Geopotential anomalies extend from the surface up to the stratosphere, associated to deeper Aleutian and Icelandic Lows. While the upper-level jet is weakened and shifted southward over the continents, it is intensified over both oceanic sectors, especially over the Pacific Ocean. On the American and Eurasian continents, intensified surface Highs are associated with anomalous advection of cold (warm) polar air on their eastern (western) sides, bringing cooler temperatures along the Pacific coast of Asia and Northeastern North America. Transient eddy activity is reduced over Eurasia, intensified over the entrance and exit regions of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks, in broad qualitative agreement with the upper-level wind anomalies. Potential predictability calculations indicate a strong influence of sea ice upon surface temperatures over the Arctic in autumn, but also along the Pacific coast of Asia in December. When the observed sea ice extent from 2007 is prescribed throughout the autumn, a higher correlation of surface temperatures with meteorological re-analyses is found at high latitudes from October until mid-November. This further emphasises the relevance of sea ice for seasonal forecasting in the Arctic region, in the autumn. (orig.)

Flow regimes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kh'yuitt, G.

1980-01-01

An introduction into the problem of two-phase flows is presented. Flow regimes arizing in two-phase flows are described, and classification of these regimes is given. Structures of vertical and horizontal two-phase flows and a method of their identification using regime maps are considered. The limits of this method application are discussed. The flooding phenomena and phenomena of direction change (flow reversal) of the flow and interrelation of these phenomena as well as transitions from slug regime to churn one and from churn one to annular one in vertical flows are described. Problems of phase transitions and equilibrium are discussed. Flow regimes in tubes where evaporating liquid is running, are described [ru

Subchronic and chronic PCP treatment produces temporally distinct deficits in attentional set shifting and prepulse inhibition in rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Egerton, Alice; Reid, Lee; McGregor, Sandie; Cochran, Susan M; Morris, Brian J; Pratt, Judith A

2008-05-01

We have previously demonstrated that subchronic (five daily administrations of 2.6 mg/kg PCP) and chronic intermittent administration of 2.6 mg/kg PCP to rats produces hypofrontality and other neurochemical changes akin to schizophrenia pathology (Cochran et al., Neuropsychopharmacology, 28:265-275, 2003). We sought to determine whether behavioral alterations related to discrete aspects of schizophrenia are also induced by these PCP treatment regimes. Following administration of vehicle or PCP according to the protocols described above, rats were assessed for attentional set shifting ability, prepulse inhibition (PPI), or social interaction and the locomotor response to a challenge dose of amphetamine. Ability to shift attentional set was impaired 72 h after the last PCP administration following the subchronic and chronic intermittent treatment regimes. PPI was disrupted after each acute administration of PCP in animals under the subchronic treatment regime. However, PPI deficits were not sustained 72 h after the last of five daily administrations. In subchronic and chronic PCP treated animals, no change was found in social interaction behavior, and there was little change in baseline or amphetamine-stimulated locomotor activity, employed as an indicator of dopaminergic hyperfunction. The temporally distinct behavioral effects of these PCP treatment regimes suggest that PPI deficits relate directly to acute NMDA receptor antagonism, whereas the more enduring set shifting deficits relate to the longer term consequences of NMDA receptor blockade. Therefore, these subchronic and chronic PCP treatment regimes produce hypofrontality (Cochran et al., Neuropsychopharmacology, 28:265-275, 2003) and associated prefrontal cortex-dependent deficits in behavioral flexibility which mirror core deficits in schizophrenia.

Societal, land cover and climatic controls on river nutrient flows into the Baltic Sea

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Saaltink, R.; Velde, van der Y.; Dekker, S.C.; Lyon, S.W.; Dahlke, H.E.

2014-01-01

Study region River basins draining into the Baltic Sea, known as the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB). Study focus Dramatic shifts in water quality have been observed in the Baltic Sea in past decades. This study investigated the spatial distribution of trends in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in

Societal, land cover and climatic controls on river nutrient flows into the Baltic Sea

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Saaltink, Rémon; van der Velde, Ype; Dekker, Stefan; Lyon, Steve W.; Dahlke, Helen E.

Study region River basins draining into the Baltic Sea, known as the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB). Study focus Dramatic shifts in water quality have been observed in the Baltic Sea in past decades. This study investigated the spatial distribution of trends in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in

Societal, land cover and climatic controls on river nutrient flows into the Baltic Sea

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Saaltink, Rémon; van der Velde, Ype; Dekker, Stefan C.; Lyon, Steve W.; Dahlke, Helen E.

2014-01-01

Study region: River basins draining into the Baltic Sea, known as the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB). Study focus: Dramatic shifts in water quality have been observed in the Baltic Sea in past decades. This study investigated the spatial distribution of trends in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in

Persistent millennial-scale shifts in moisture regimes in western Canada during the past six millennia

Science.gov (United States)

Cumming, Brian F.; Laird, Kathleen R.; Bennett, Joseph R.; Smol, John P.; Salomon, Anne K.

2002-01-01

Inferences of past climatic conditions from a sedimentary record from Big Lake, British Columbia, Canada, over the past 5,500 years show strong millennial-scale patterns, which oscillate between periods of wet and drier climatic conditions. Higher frequency decadal- to centennial-scale fluctuations also occur within the dominant millennial-scale patterns. These changes in climatic conditions are based on estimates of changes in lake depth and salinity inferred from diatom assemblages in a well dated sediment core. After periods of relative stability, abrupt shifts in diatom assemblages and inferred climatic conditions occur approximately every 1,220 years. The correspondence of these shifts to millennial-scale variations in records of glacial expansion/recession and ice-rafting events in the Atlantic suggest that abrupt millennial-scale shifts are important to understanding climatic variability in North America during the mid- to late Holocene. Unfortunately, the spatial patterns and mechanisms behind these large and abrupt swings are poorly understood. Similar abrupt and prolonged changes in climatic conditions today could pose major societal challenges for many regions. PMID:12461174

Tectonic regimes in the Baltic Shield during the last 1200 Ma - A review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larsson, S.Aa.; Tullborg, E.L. and

1993-11-01

This report is a review about tectonic regimes in the Baltic (Fennoscandian) Shield from the Sveconorwegian (1.2 Ga ago) to the present. It also covers what is known about palaeostress during this period, which was chosen to include both orogenic and anorogenic events. A summery is given in table form, and a litho-stratigraphic map of Baltica including adjacent sea areas is enclosed. Plate movements are the ultimate reason for stress build-up in the crust. It is concluded that continental drift and rotation velocity have changed during the Earth's history. Periods of convergence and collision between continents are succeeded by periods of continental break-up. The different stress regimes, which prevailed during fracturing, produced specific fracture patterns on different scales. These fractures were reactivated during later favourable stress regimes. Within the next 100 000 years the stress situation of the Baltica crust will not change, except for the effects imposed by the growth and melting of an ice cover. 214 refs

River flow regime and snow cover of the Pamir Alay (Central Asia) in a changing climate

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chevallier, P.; Pouyaud, B.; Mojaisky, M.; Bolgov, M.; Olsson, O.; Bauer, M.; Froebrich, J.

2014-01-01

The Vakhsh and Pyandj rivers, main tributaries of the Amu Darya River in the mountainous region of the Pamir Alay, play an important role in the water resources of the Aral Sea basin (Central Asia). In this region, the glaciers and snow cover significantly influence the water cycle and flow regime,

Weather regimes in past climate atmospheric general circulation model simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G. [CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. des Sci. du Climat et de l' Environnement; D' Andrea, F.; Vautard, R. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris (France); Valdes, P.J. [Department of Meteorology, University of Reading (United Kingdom)

1999-10-01

We investigate the climates of the present-day, inception of the last glaciation (115000 y ago) and last glacial maximum (21000 y ago) in the extratropical north Atlantic and Europe, as simulated by the laboratoire de Meteorologie dynamique atmospheric general circulation model. We use these simulations to investigate the low-frequency variability of the model in different climates. The aim is to evaluate whether changes in the intraseasonal variability, which we characterize using weather regimes, can help describe the impact of different boundary conditions on climate and give a better understanding of climate change processes. Weather regimes are defined as the most recurrent patterns in the 500 hPa geopotential height, using a clustering algorithm method. The regimes found in the climate simulations of the present-day and inception of the last glaciation are similar in their number and their structure. It is the regimes' populations which are found to be different for these climates, with an increase of the model's blocked regime and a decrease in the zonal regime at the inception of the last glaciation. This description reinforces the conclusions from a study of the differences between the climatological averages of the different runs and confirms the northeastward shift to the tail of the Atlantic storm-track, which would favour more precipitation over the site of growth of the Fennoscandian ice-sheet. On the other hand, the last glacial maximum results over this sector are not found to be classifiable, showing that the change in boundary conditions can be responsible for severe changes in the weather regime and low-frequency dynamics. The LGM Atlantic low-frequency variability appears to be dominated by a large-scale retrogressing wave with a period 40 to 50 days. (orig.)

Mixed meson masses with domain-wall valence and staggered sea fermions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orginos, Kostas; Walker-Loud, Andre

2008-01-01

Mixed action lattice calculations allow for an additive lattice-spacing-dependent mass renormalization of mesons composed of one sea and one valence quark, regardless of the type of fermion discretization methods used in the valence and sea sectors. The value of the mass renormalization depends upon the lattice actions used. This mixed meson mass shift is an important lattice artifact to determine for mixed action calculations; because it modifies the pion mass, it plays a central role in the low-energy dynamics of all hadronic correlation functions. We determine the leading order, O(a 2 ), and next-to-leading order, O(a 2 m π 2 ), additive mass shift of valence-sea mesons for a mixed lattice action with domain-wall valence fermions and rooted staggered sea fermions, relevant to the majority of current large scale mixed action lattice efforts. We find that, on the asqtad-improved coarse MILC lattices, this additive mass shift is well parametrized in lattice units by Δ(am) 2 =0.034(2)-0.06(2)(am π ) 2 , which in physical units, using a=0.125 fm, corresponds to Δ(m) 2 =(291±8 MeV) 2 -0.06(2)m π 2 . In terms of the mixed action effective field theory parameters, the corresponding mass shift is given by a 2 Δ Mix =(316±4 MeV) 2 at leading order plus next-to-leading order corrections including the necessary chiral logarithms for this mixed action calculation, determined in this work. Within the precision of our calculation, one cannot distinguish between the full next-to-leading order effective field theory analysis of this additive mixed meson mass shift and the parametrization given above.

The impact of organochlorines cycling in the cryosphere on their global distribution and fate – 1. Sea ice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guglielmo, Francesca; Stemmler, Irene; Lammel, Gerhard

2012-01-01

Global fate and transport of γ-HCH and DDT was studied using a global multicompartment chemistry-transport model, MPI-MCTM, with and without a dynamic sea ice compartment. The MPI-MCTM is based on coupled ocean and atmosphere general circulation models. Sea ice hosts 7–9% of the burden of the surface ocean. Without cycling in sea ice the geographic distributions are shifted from land to sea. This shift of burdens exceeds the sea ice burden by a factor of ≈8 for γ-HCH and by a factor of ≈15 for DDT. As regional scale seasonal sea ice melting may double surface ocean contamination, a neglect of cycling in sea ice (in an otherwise unchanged model climate) would underestimate ocean exposure in high latitudes. Furthermore, it would lead to overestimates of the residence times in ocean by 40% and 33% and of the total environmental residence times, τ overall , of γ-HCH and DDT by 1.6% and 0.6%, respectively. - Highlights: ► Sea ice hosts 7–9% of the burden of γ-HCH and DDT in the surface ocean. ► Without cycling in sea ice the distributions are shifted from land to sea. ► A neglect of cycling in sea ice would underestimate ocean exposure in high latitudes. ► Persistence of γ-HCH and DDT expected enhanced in climate without sea ice. - The inclusion of cycling in sea ice is found relevant for POPs fate and transport modelling on the global scale.

Palaeoenvironmental changes across the Danian–Selandian boundary in the North Sea Basin

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clemmensen, Anne; Thomsen, Erik

2005-01-01

cores from Storebælt in the eastern part of the North Sea Basin, we have reconstructed the palaeoenvironmental changes across the boundary. The benthic foraminiferal faunas belong to the “Midway-type fauna”. They are extremely rich and more than 260 taxa have been recognized. Q-mode cluster analysis......, the sea bottom conditions became colder and more acidic. This resulted in partial dissolution of the carbonates and the deposition shifted from marl to clay. Comparison with records from the Western Pyrenees, the Nile Basin and the eastern North America suggests that sea-level changes across the Danian......The Danian–Selandian boundary (not, vert, similar60 Ma) marks the cessation of 40 million years of carbonate deposition in the North Sea Basin and a shift to siliciclastic deposition. On the basis of variations in lithology, benthic and planktonic foraminifera and calcareous nannofossils in three...

Integrating out the Dirac sea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karbstein, Felix

2009-01-01

We introduce a new method for dealing with fermionic quantum field theories amenable to a mean-field-type approximation. In this work we focus on the relativistic Hartree approximation. Our aim is to integrate out the Dirac sea and derive a no-sea effective theory'' with positive energy single particle states only. As the derivation of the no-sea effective theory involves only standard Feynman diagrams, our approach is quite general and not restricted to particular space-time dimensions. We develop and illustrate the approach in the ''large N'' limit of the Gross-Neveu model family in 1+1 dimensions. As the Gross-Neveu model has been intensely studied and several analytical solutions are known for this model, it is an ideal testing ground for our no-sea effective theory approach. The chiral Gross-Neveu model, also referred to as 1+1 dimensional Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model, turns out to be of particular interest. In this case, we explicitly derive a consistent effective theory featuring both elementary ''π meson'' fields and (positive energy) ''quark'' fields, starting from a purely fermionic quantum field theory. In the second part of this work, we apply our approach to the Walecka model in 1+1 and 3+1 dimensions. As the Dirac sea caused considerable difficulties in attempts to base nuclear physics on field theoretic models like the Walecka model, mean-field calculations were typically done without the sea. We confront several of these mean-field theory results with our no-sea effective theory approach. The potential of our approach is twofold. While the no-sea effective theory can be utilized to provide new analytical insights in particular parameter regimes, it also sheds new light on more fundamental issues as the explicit emergence of effective, Dirac-sea induced multi-fermion interactions in an effective theory with positive energy states only. (orig.)

The collective Lamb shift in nuclear γ-ray superradiance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Röhlsberger, Ralf

2012-01-01

The electromagnetic transitions of Mössbauer nuclei provide almost ideal two-level systems to transfer quantum optical concepts into the regime of hard x-rays. If many identical atoms collectively interact with a resonant radiation field, one observes (quantum) optical properties that are strongly different from those of a single atom. The most prominent effect is the broadening of the resonance line known as collective enhancement, resulting from multiple scattering of real photons within the atomic ensemble. On the other hand, the exchange of virtual photons within the ensemble leads to a tiny energy shift of the resonance line, the collective Lamb shift, that remained experimentally elusive for a long time after its prediction. Here we illustrate how highly brilliant synchrotron radiation allows one to prepare superradiant states of excited Mössbauer nuclei, an important condition for observation of the collective Lamb shift.

Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature

KAUST Repository

Chaidez, Veronica

2017-08-09

Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade-1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century1. However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea\\'s thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade-1, while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade-1, all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

Potential impact of global climate change on benthic deep-sea microbes.

Science.gov (United States)

Danovaro, Roberto; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Dell'Anno, Antonio; Rastelli, Eugenio

2017-12-15

Benthic deep-sea environments are the largest ecosystem on Earth, covering ∼65% of the Earth surface. Microbes inhabiting this huge biome at all water depths represent the most abundant biological components and a relevant portion of the biomass of the biosphere, and play a crucial role in global biogeochemical cycles. Increasing evidence suggests that global climate changes are affecting also deep-sea ecosystems, both directly (causing shifts in bottom-water temperature, oxygen concentration and pH) and indirectly (through changes in surface oceans' productivity and in the consequent export of organic matter to the seafloor). However, the responses of the benthic deep-sea biota to such shifts remain largely unknown. This applies particularly to deep-sea microbes, which include bacteria, archaea, microeukaryotes and their viruses. Understanding the potential impacts of global change on the benthic deep-sea microbial assemblages and the consequences on the functioning of the ocean interior is a priority to better forecast the potential consequences at global scale. Here we explore the potential changes in the benthic deep-sea microbiology expected in the coming decades using case studies on specific systems used as test models. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Invasive Crabs in the Barents Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaiser, Brooks; Fernandez, Linda; Kourantidou, Melina

The recent invasions of the red king crab (RKC) and the snow crab (SC) in the Barents Sea represent the sorts of integrated ecological and economic shifts we may expect as climate change affects arctic seas. Economic incentives and ecological unknowns have combined to change the current...... and potentially future productivity and profitability of the Barents ecosystem in complex and interacting ways. We examine potential ecological-economic trajectories for these crabs’ continued expansions in the Arctic and how the profitability, the joint and national management structures in Norway and Russia...

Loss of sea ice in the Arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

Perovich, Donald K; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A

2009-01-01

The Arctic sea ice cover is in decline. The areal extent of the ice cover has been decreasing for the past few decades at an accelerating rate. Evidence also points to a decrease in sea ice thickness and a reduction in the amount of thicker perennial sea ice. A general global warming trend has made the ice cover more vulnerable to natural fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The observed reduction in Arctic sea ice is a consequence of both thermodynamic and dynamic processes, including such factors as preconditioning of the ice cover, overall warming trends, changes in cloud coverage, shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns, increased export of older ice out of the Arctic, advection of ocean heat from the Pacific and North Atlantic, enhanced solar heating of the ocean, and the ice-albedo feedback. The diminishing Arctic sea ice is creating social, political, economic, and ecological challenges.

Nonlinear focal shift beyond the geometrical focus in moderately focused acoustic beams.

Science.gov (United States)

Camarena, Francisco; Adrián-Martínez, Silvia; Jiménez, Noé; Sánchez-Morcillo, Víctor

2013-08-01

The phenomenon of the displacement of the position along the axis of the pressure, intensity, and radiation force maxima of focused acoustic beams under increasing driving voltages (nonlinear focal shift) is studied for the case of a moderately focused beam. The theoretical and experimental results show the existence of this shift along the axis when the initial pressure in the transducer increases until the acoustic field reaches the fully developed nonlinear regime of propagation. Experimental data show that at high amplitudes and for moderate focusing, the position of the on-axis pressure maximum and radiation force maximum can surpass the geometrical focal length. On the contrary, the on-axis pressure minimum approaches the transducer under increasing driving voltages, increasing the distance between the positive and negative peak pressure in the beam. These results are in agreement with numerical KZK model predictions and the existed data of other authors and can be explained according to the effect of self-refraction characteristic of the nonlinear regime of propagation.

Temperature tracking by North Sea benthic invertebrates in response to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Hiddink, Jan G; Burrows, Michael T; García Molinos, Jorge

2015-01-01

Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity and distributions shifts are one of the most significant threats to global warming, but the extent to which these shifts keep pace with a changing climate is yet uncertain. Understanding the factors governing range shifts is crucial for conservation management to anticipate patterns of biodiversity distribution under future anthropogenic climate change. Soft-sediment invertebrates are a key faunal group because of their role in marine biogeochemistry and as a food source for commercial fish species. However, little information exists on their response to climate change. Here, we evaluate changes in the distribution of 65 North Sea benthic invertebrate species between 1986 and 2000 by examining their geographic, bathymetric and thermal niche shifts and test whether species are tracking their thermal niche as defined by minimum, mean or maximum sea bottom (SBT) and surface (SST) temperatures. Temperatures increased in the whole North Sea with many benthic invertebrates showing north-westerly range shifts (leading/trailing edges as well as distribution centroids) and deepening. Nevertheless, distribution shifts for most species (3.8-7.3 km yr(-1) interquantile range) lagged behind shifts in both SBT and SST (mean 8.1 km yr(-1)), resulting in many species experiencing increasing temperatures. The velocity of climate change (VoCC) of mean SST accurately predicted both the direction and magnitude of distribution centroid shifts, while maximum SST did the same for contraction of the trailing edge. The VoCC of SBT was not a good predictor of range shifts. No good predictor of expansions of the leading edge was found. Our results show that invertebrates need to shift at different rates and directions to track the climate velocities of different temperature measures, and are therefore lagging behind most temperature measures. If these species cannot withstand a change in thermal habitat, this could ultimately lead to a drop in

Preventing Escalation in the South China Sea Disputed Waters: A Comparative Study of Republic of the Philippines and Socialist Republic of Vietnam

Science.gov (United States)

2015-03-01

Problem of Maritime Cooperation in the South China Sea,” in Security and International Politics in the South China Sea, eds. Sam Bateman and Ralf Emmers...South China Sea,” in Security and International Politics in the South China Sea: Towards a cooperative management regime, eds. Sam Bateman and Ralf...Cooperation in the South China Sea.” In Security and International Politics in the South China Sea, edited by Sam Bateman and Ralf Emmers. Oxon, UK

The Red Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum: implications for sea level reconstructions

Science.gov (United States)

Gildor, H.; Biton, E.; Peltier, W. R.

2006-12-01

The Red Sea (RS) is a semi-enclosed basin connected to the Indian Ocean via a narrow and shallow strait, and surrounded by arid areas which exhibits high sensitivity to atmospheric changes and sea level reduction. We have used the MIT GCM to investigate the changes in the hydrography and circulation in the RS in response to reduced sea level, variability in the Indian monsoons, and changes in atmospheric temperature and humidity that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The model results show high sensitivity to sea level reduction especially in the salinity field (increasing with the reduction in sea level) together with a mild atmospheric impact. Sea level reduction decreases the stratification, increases subsurface temperatures, and alters the circulation pattern at the Strait of Bab el Mandab, which experiences a transition from submaximal flow to maximal flow. The reduction in sea level at LGM alters the location of deep water formation which shifts to an open sea convective site in the northern part of the RS compared to present day situation in which deep water is formed from the Gulf of Suez outflow. Our main result based on both the GCM and on a simple hydraulic control model which takes into account mixing process at the Strait of Bab El Mandeb, is that sea level was reduced by only ~100 m in the Bab El Mandeb region during the LGM, i.e. the water depth at the Hanish sill (the shallowest part in the Strait Bab el Mandab) was around 34 m. This result agrees with the recent reconstruction of the LGM low stand of the sea in this region based upon the ICE-5G (VM2) model of Peltier (2004).

An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Janczura, Joanna [Hugo Steinhaus Center, Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science, Wroclaw University of Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw (Poland); Weron, Rafal [Institute of Organization and Management, Wroclaw University of Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw (Poland)

2010-09-15

One of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes. Markov regime-switching (MRS) models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior. However, in the studies published so far, the goodness-of-fit of the proposed models has not been a major focus. While most of the models were elegant, their fit to empirical data has either been not examined thoroughly or the signs of a bad fit ignored. With this paper we want to fill the gap. We calibrate and test a range of MRS models in an attempt to find parsimonious specifications that not only address the main characteristics of electricity prices but are statistically sound as well. We find that the best structure is that of an independent spike 3-regime model with time-varying transition probabilities, heteroscedastic diffusion-type base regime dynamics and shifted spike regime distributions. Not only does it allow for a seasonal spike intensity throughout the year and consecutive spikes or price drops, which is consistent with market observations, but also exhibits the 'inverse leverage effect' reported in the literature for spot electricity prices. (author)

An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janczura, Joanna; Weron, Rafal

2010-01-01

One of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes. Markov regime-switching (MRS) models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior. However, in the studies published so far, the goodness-of-fit of the proposed models has not been a major focus. While most of the models were elegant, their fit to empirical data has either been not examined thoroughly or the signs of a bad fit ignored. With this paper we want to fill the gap. We calibrate and test a range of MRS models in an attempt to find parsimonious specifications that not only address the main characteristics of electricity prices but are statistically sound as well. We find that the best structure is that of an independent spike 3-regime model with time-varying transition probabilities, heteroscedastic diffusion-type base regime dynamics and shifted spike regime distributions. Not only does it allow for a seasonal spike intensity throughout the year and consecutive spikes or price drops, which is consistent with market observations, but also exhibits the 'inverse leverage effect' reported in the literature for spot electricity prices. (author)

On the relationship between Indian summer monsoon withdrawal and Indo-Pacific SST anomalies before and after 1976/1977 climate shift

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sabeerali, C.T.; Rao, Suryachandra A. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Ajayamohan, R.S. [University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Murtugudde, Raghu [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States)

2012-08-15

A clear shift in the withdrawal dates of the Indian Summer Monsoon is observed in the long term time series of rainfall data. Prior (posterior) to the 1976/1977 climate shift most of the withdrawal dates are associated with a late (an early) withdrawal. As a result, the length of the rainy season (LRS) over the Indian land mass has also undergone similar changes (i.e., longer (shorter) LRS prior (posterior) to the climate shift). In this study, probable reasons for this significant shift in withdrawal dates and the LRS are investigated using reanalysis/observed datasets and also with the help of an atmospheric general circulation model. Reanalysis/observational datasets indicate that prior to the climate shift the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Arabian Sea exerted a strong influence on both the withdrawal and the LRS. After the climate shift, the influence of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean SST has decreased and surprisingly, the influence of the Arabian Sea SST is almost non-existent. On the other hand, the influence of the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean has increased significantly. It is observed that the upper tropospheric temperature gradient over the dominant monsoon region has decreased and the relative influence of the Indian Ocean SST variability on the withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon has increased in the post climate shift period. Sensitivity experiments with the contrasting SST patterns on withdrawal dates and the LRS in the pre- and post- climate shift scenarios, confirm the observational evidences presented above. (orig.)

Changes in forest productivity across Alaska consistent with biome shift.

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, Pieter S A; Juday, Glenn P; Alix, Claire; Barber, Valerie A; Winslow, Stephen E; Sousa, Emily E; Heiser, Patricia; Herriges, James D; Goetz, Scott J

2011-04-01

Global vegetation models predict that boreal forests are particularly sensitive to a biome shift during the 21st century. This shift would manifest itself first at the biome's margins, with evergreen forest expanding into current tundra while being replaced by grasslands or temperate forest at the biome's southern edge. We evaluated changes in forest productivity since 1982 across boreal Alaska by linking satellite estimates of primary productivity and a large tree-ring data set. Trends in both records show consistent growth increases at the boreal-tundra ecotones that contrast with drought-induced productivity declines throughout interior Alaska. These patterns support the hypothesized effects of an initiating biome shift. Ultimately, tree dispersal rates, habitat availability and the rate of future climate change, and how it changes disturbance regimes, are expected to determine where the boreal biome will undergo a gradual geographic range shift, and where a more rapid decline. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature

KAUST Repository

Chaidez, Veronica; Dreano, Denis; Agusti, Susana; Duarte, Carlos M.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2017-01-01

Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade-1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century1. However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade-1, while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade-1, all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaidez, V; Dreano, D; Agusti, S; Duarte, C M; Hoteit, I

2017-08-15

Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade -1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century 1 . However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade -1 , while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade -1 , all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

A Dirac sea pilot-wave model for quantum field theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colin, S; Struyve, W

2007-01-01

We present a pilot-wave model for quantum field theory in which the Dirac sea is taken seriously. The model ascribes particle trajectories to all the fermions, including the fermions filling the Dirac sea. The model is deterministic and applies to the regime in which fermion number is superselected. This work is a further elaboration of work by Colin, in which a Dirac sea pilot-wave model is presented for quantum electrodynamics. We extend his work to non-electromagnetic interactions, we discuss a cut-off regularization of the pilot-wave model and study how it reproduces the standard quantum predictions. The Dirac sea pilot-wave model can be seen as a possible continuum generalization of a lattice model by Bell. It can also be seen as a development and generalization of the ideas by Bohm, Hiley and Kaloyerou, who also suggested the use of the Dirac sea for the development of a pilot-wave model for quantum electrodynamics

Sea Ice Microorganisms: Environmental Constraints and Extracellular Responses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jody W. Deming

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Inherent to sea ice, like other high latitude environments, is the strong seasonality driven by changes in insolation throughout the year. Sea-ice organisms are exposed to shifting, sometimes limiting, conditions of temperature and salinity. An array of adaptations to survive these and other challenges has been acquired by those organisms that inhabit the ice. One key adaptive response is the production of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS, which play multiple roles in the entrapment, retention and survival of microorganisms in sea ice. In this concept paper we consider two main areas of sea-ice microbiology: the physico-chemical properties that define sea ice as a microbial habitat, imparting particular advantages and limits; and extracellular responses elicited in microbial inhabitants as they exploit or survive these conditions. Emphasis is placed on protective strategies used in the face of fluctuating and extreme environmental conditions in sea ice. Gaps in knowledge and testable hypotheses are identified for future research.

Past and present Aral Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Dukhovniy, Viktor; Stulina, Galina; Eshchanov, Odylbek

2013-04-01

organized in 2005-2009 sixth expeditions for complex remote sensing and ground investigations Aral Sea former bottom that were complemented in 2010 -2011 by two expeditions with GFZ. As a result, the landscape, soils and environment mapping was done with determination of ecologically unstable zones and assessment total change of lands situation compared with the pre-independence time. Moreover - methodic of monitoring water, environment and hydro geological indicators on the all deltas area was elaborated, organized its testing and combined with remote sensing data on Amudarya delta for 2009-2012. It permits to SIC ICWC to organize systematic permanent (decadal) monitoring and recording of size, volume and level of water in Aral Sea. Since the beginning of regular observations over the Aral Sea level, 2 periods can be emphasized: 1. Conditionally natural period - 1911-1960 - characterized by a relatively stable hydrological regime, with fluctuations in the level around 53 m and the range of inter-annual fluctuations at no more than 1 m., when the sea received annually about a half of the run-off in the Syrdarya and Amudarya Rivers, i.e. 50-60 km3/yr. 2. Intensive anthropogenic impact period - since the 1960s, a vast extension of irrigable land was carried out in Central Asia that resulted in intensive diversion of river run-off. Since then, the sea level has been falling steadily, causing a dramatic reduction in the water surface area, a decrease in water volume and depths, great changes in shoreline configuration and an expansion of the desert areas adjacent to the Aral Sea. From 1960-1985, when the sea was an integral water body, slight lowering in the sea level took place until the 1970s, when the sea-level decreased with the mean level lowering 1 m. The desiccation process accelerated visibly from the mid 1970s. In 1975-1980, the level decreased by 0.65 m a year on average. Moreover, the level dropped greatly, when the run-off of the Amudarya did not reach the Aral Sea

Towards the best approach for wind wave modelling in the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Langodan, Sabique

2015-04-01

While wind and wave modelling is nowadays quite satisfactory in the open oceans, problems are still present in the enclosed seas. In general, the smaller the basin, the poorer the models perform, especially if the basin is surrounded by a complex orography. The Red Sea is an extreme example in this respect, especially because of its long and narrow shape. This deceivingly simple domain offers very interesting challenges for wind and wave modeling, not easily, if ever, found elsewhere. Depending on the season, opposite wind regimes, one directed to southeast, the other one to northwest, are present and may coexist in the most northerly and southerly parts of the Red Sea. Where the two regimes meet, the wave spectra can be rather complicated and, crucially dependent on small details of the driving wind fields. We explored how well we could reproduce the general and unusual wind and wave patterns of the Red Sea using different meteorological products. Best results were obtained using two rather opposite approaches: the high-resolution Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) regional model and the slightly enhanced surface winds from the global European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. We discuss the reasons why these two approaches produce the best results and the implications on wave modeling in the Red Sea. The unusual wind and wave patterns in the Red Sea suggest that the currently available wave model source functions may not properly represent the evolution of local fields. However, within limits, the WAVEWATCH III wave model, based on Janssen\\'s and also Ardhuin\\'s wave model physics, provides in many cases very reasonable results. Because surface winds lead to important uncertainties in wave simulation, we also discuss the impact of data assimilation for simulating the most accurate winds, and consequently waves, over the Red Sea.

Observation of the Phononic Lamb Shift with a Synthetic Vacuum

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T. Rentrop

2016-11-01

Full Text Available In contrast to classical empty space, the quantum vacuum fundamentally alters the properties of embedded particles. This paradigm shift allows one to explain the discovery of the celebrated Lamb shift in the spectrum of the hydrogen atom. Here, we engineer a synthetic vacuum, building on the unique properties of ultracold atomic gas mixtures, offering the ability to switch between empty space and quantum vacuum. Using high-precision spectroscopy, we observe the phononic Lamb shift, an intriguing many-body effect originally conjectured in the context of solid-state physics. We find good agreement with theoretical predictions based on the Fröhlich model. Our observations establish this experimental platform as a new tool for precision benchmarking of open theoretical challenges, especially in the regime of strong coupling between the particles and the quantum vacuum.

Legislative proposal for a controlled foreign companies regime in Poland from an international perspective

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Magdalena Małgorzata Hybka

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Tackling corporate profit shifting requires appropriate anti-avoidance measures. This article reviews one of these measures, a controlled foreign companies (corporations regime. It has been implemented in many countries, in some of them as early as the 1960s. The need for its introduction has also been expressed on many occasions by the Polish legislator. The article is composed of three sections. The first considers the reasons for the implementation of the analyzed regime. The second describes the controlled foreign corporation legislation in the USA and selected European Union member states. The last section is devoted to a bill on taxing controlled foreign companies in Poland.

Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Raitsos, D. E.

2011-07-19

Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Raitsos, D. E.; Hoteit, I.; Prihartato, P. K.; Chronis, T.; Triantafyllou, G.; Abualnaja, Y.

2011-07-01

Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

Towards the problem ChAES alienation zone residing conditions for watch-shift personal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akimenko, V.Ya.; Yanko, N.M.; Semashko, P.V.; Yarygin, A.V.

1994-01-01

The article deals with some results of hygienic study concerning watch-shift workers residing condition in the ChAES 30-km zone. The evaluation is given for residing environment prioritative living parameters, air ventilation, hostels inhabiting conditions, the acoustic regime. Some indoor environment aerosol pollution levels different kind domestic activity a revealed. Electrostatic air cleaning installing as devices of radioactive smalldispers aerosol control a studied. Some tasks of further research are substantiated in order of watch-shift workers residing environment optimization in the alienation zone

Transformative Shifts in Art History Teaching: The Impact of Standards-Based Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Ormond, Barbara

2011-01-01

This article examines pedagogical shifts in art history teaching that have developed as a response to the implementation of a standards-based assessment regime. The specific characteristics of art history standards-based assessment in the context of New Zealand secondary schools are explained to demonstrate how an exacting form of assessment has…

Trends in Sea Ice Cover, Sea Surface Temperature, and Chlorophyll Biomass Across a Marine Distributed Biological Observatory in the Pacific Arctic Region

Science.gov (United States)

Frey, K. E.; Grebmeier, J. M.; Cooper, L. W.; Wood, C.; Panday, P. K.

2011-12-01

The northern Bering and Chukchi Seas in the Pacific Arctic Region (PAR) are among the most productive marine ecosystems in the world and act as important carbon sinks, particularly during May and June when seasonal sea ice-associated phytoplankton blooms occur throughout the region. Recent dramatic shifts in seasonal sea ice cover across the PAR should have profound consequences for this seasonal phytoplankton production as well as the intimately linked higher trophic levels. In order to investigate ecosystem responses to these observed recent shifts in sea ice cover, the development of a prototype Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) is now underway in the PAR. The DBO is being developed as an internationally-coordinated change detection array that allows for consistent sampling and monitoring at five spatially explicit biologically productive locations across a latitudinal gradient: (1) DBO-SLP (south of St. Lawrence Island (SLI)), (2) DBO-NBS (north of SLI), (3) DBO-SCS (southern Chukchi Sea), (4) DBO-CCS (central Chukchi Sea), and (5) DBO-BCA (Barrow Canyon Arc). Standardized measurements at many of the DBO sites were made by multiple research cruises during the 2010 and 2011 pilot years, and will be expanded with the development of the DBO in coming years. In order to provide longer-term context for the changes occurring across the PAR, we utilize multi-sensor satellite data to investigate recent trends in sea ice cover, chlorophyll biomass, and sea surface temperatures for each of the five DBO sites, as well as a sixth long-term observational site in the Bering Strait. Satellite observations show that over the past three decades, trends in sea ice cover in the PAR have been heterogeneous, with significant declines in the Chukchi Sea, slight declines in the Bering Strait region, but increases in the northern Bering Sea south of SLI. Declines in the persistence of seasonal sea ice cover in the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait region are due to both earlier sea

Eight- and twelve-hour shifts in Austrian rail traffic controllers: a psychophysiological comparison

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. WOLFGANG KALLUS

2009-09-01

Full Text Available The present study compared a 12-hour and an 8-hour shift system in 18 Austrian rail traffic controllers. To gain objective indicators for arousal and fatigue induced by the whole workrest sequence, we recorded heart rate during the last night shift, in addition to subjective measures that included physical symptoms. A higher increase of monotony, fatigue and saturation emerged during the 8-hour compared to the 12-hour regime, together with a heart rate decrease during the last 8-hour night shift. In line with other researchers, we conclude that flexible working conditions in specific occupational groups may compensate for disadvantages of prolonged working periods, giving way to advantages of longer shifts such as longer pauses and extra days off for social and other personal activities.

Perspective on the northwestward shift of autumn tropical cyclogenesis locations over the western North Pacific from shifting ENSO

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Chundi; Zhang, Chengyang; Yang, Song; Chen, Dake; He, Shengping

2017-11-01

During the recent decades of satellite era, more tropical cyclogenesis locations (TCLs) were observed over the northwestern part of the western North Pacific (WNP), relative to the southeastern part, during the boreal autumn. This increase in TCLs over the northwestern WNP is largely attributed to the synergy of shifting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 1998 Pacific climate regime shift. Both central Pacific (CP) La Niña and CP El Niño have occurred more frequently since 1998, with only one eastern Pacific El Niño observed in autumn 2015. The change in the mean longitude of TCLs is closely linked to the ENSO diversity, whereas the change in the mean latitude is dominated by the warming of the WNP induced by an interdecadal tendency of CP La Niña-like events. The physical mechanisms responsible for this shifting ENSO-TCL linkage can be potentially explained by the tacit-and-mutual configurations between tropical upper-tropospheric trough and monsoon trough, on both interannual and interdecadal timescales, which is mainly due to the ENSO-related large-scale environment changes in ocean and atmosphere that modulate the WNP TCL.

Integrating out the Dirac sea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karbstein, Felix

2009-07-08

We introduce a new method for dealing with fermionic quantum field theories amenable to a mean-field-type approximation. In this work we focus on the relativistic Hartree approximation. Our aim is to integrate out the Dirac sea and derive a no-sea effective theory'' with positive energy single particle states only. As the derivation of the no-sea effective theory involves only standard Feynman diagrams, our approach is quite general and not restricted to particular space-time dimensions. We develop and illustrate the approach in the ''large N'' limit of the Gross-Neveu model family in 1+1 dimensions. As the Gross-Neveu model has been intensely studied and several analytical solutions are known for this model, it is an ideal testing ground for our no-sea effective theory approach. The chiral Gross-Neveu model, also referred to as 1+1 dimensional Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model, turns out to be of particular interest. In this case, we explicitly derive a consistent effective theory featuring both elementary ''{pi} meson'' fields and (positive energy) ''quark'' fields, starting from a purely fermionic quantum field theory. In the second part of this work, we apply our approach to the Walecka model in 1+1 and 3+1 dimensions. As the Dirac sea caused considerable difficulties in attempts to base nuclear physics on field theoretic models like the Walecka model, mean-field calculations were typically done without the sea. We confront several of these mean-field theory results with our no-sea effective theory approach. The potential of our approach is twofold. While the no-sea effective theory can be utilized to provide new analytical insights in particular parameter regimes, it also sheds new light on more fundamental issues as the explicit emergence of effective, Dirac-sea induced multi-fermion interactions in an effective theory with positive energy states only. (orig.)

IInvestigations of space-time variability of the sea level in the Barents Sea and the White Sea by satellite altimetry data and results of hydrodynamic modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Lebedev, S. A.; Zilberstein, O. I.; Popov, S. K.; Tikhonova, O. V.

2003-04-01

The problem of retrieving of the sea level anomalies in the Barents and White Seas from satellite can be considered as two different problems. The first one is to calculate the anomalies of sea level along the trek taking into account all amendments including tidal heights. The second one is to obtain of fields of the sea level anomalies on the grid over one cycle of the exact repeat altimetry mission. Experience results show that there is preferable to use the regional tidal model for calculating tidal heights. To construct of the anomalies fields of the sea level during the exact repeat mission (cycle 35 days for ERS-1 and ERS-2), when a density of the coverage of the area of water of the Barents and White Seas by satellite measurements achieves maximum. It is necessary to solve the problem of the error minimum. This error is based by the temporal difference of the measurements over one cycle and by the specific of the hydrodynamic regime of the both seas (tidal, storm surge variations, tidal currents). To solve this problem it is assumed to use the results of the hydrodynamic modeling. The error minimum is preformed by the regression of the model results and satellite measurements. As a version it is considered the possibility of the utilizing of the neuronet obtained by the model results to construct maps of the sea level anomalies. The comparison of the model results and the calculation of the satellite altimetry variability of the sea level of Barents and White Seas shows a good coincidence between them. The satellite altimetry data of ERS-1/2 and TOPEX/POSEIDON of Ocean Altimeter Pathfinder Project (NASA/GSFC) has been used in this study. Results of the regional tidal model computations and three dimensional baroclinic model created in the Hydrometeocenter have been used as well. This study also exploited the atmosphere date of the Project REANALYSIS. The research was undertaken with partial support from the Russian Basic Research Foundation (Project No. 01-07-90106).

Late Holocene sea ice conditions in Herald Canyon, Chukchi Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Pearce, C.; O'Regan, M.; Rattray, J. E.; Hutchinson, D. K.; Cronin, T. M.; Gemery, L.; Barrientos, N.; Coxall, H.; Smittenberg, R.; Semiletov, I. P.; Jakobsson, M.

2017-12-01

Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has been in steady decline in recent decades and, based on satellite data, the retreat is most pronounced in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas. Historical observations suggest that the recent changes were unprecedented during the last 150 years, but for a longer time perspective, we rely on the geological record. For this study, we analyzed sediment samples from two piston cores from Herald Canyon in the Chukchi Sea, collected during the 2014 SWERUS-C3 Arctic Ocean Expedition. The Herald Canyon is a local depression across the Chukchi Shelf, and acts as one of the main pathways for Pacific Water to the Arctic Ocean after entering through the narrow and shallow Bering Strait. The study site lies at the modern-day seasonal sea ice minimum edge, and is thus an ideal location for the reconstruction of past sea ice variability. Both sediment cores contain late Holocene deposits characterized by high sediment accumulation rates (100-300 cm/kyr). Core 2-PC1 from the shallow canyon flank (57 m water depth) is 8 meter long and extends back to 4200 cal yrs BP, while the upper 3 meters of Core 4-PC1 from the central canyon (120 mwd) cover the last 3000 years. The chronologies of the cores are based on radiocarbon dates and the 3.6 ka Aniakchak CFE II tephra, which is used as an absolute age marker to calculate the marine radiocarbon reservoir age. Analysis of biomarkers for sea ice and surface water productivity indicate stable sea ice conditions throughout the entire late Holocene, ending with an abrupt increase of phytoplankton sterols in the very top of both sediment sequences. The shift is accompanied by a sudden increase in coarse sediments (> 125 µm) and a minor change in δ13Corg. We interpret this transition in the top sediments as a community turnover in primary producers from sea ice to open water biota. Most importantly, our results indicate that the ongoing rapid ice retreat in the Chukchi Sea of recent decades was unprecedented during the

Characterizing Arctic Sea Ice Topography Using High-Resolution IceBridge Data

Science.gov (United States)

Petty, Alek; Tsamados, Michel; Kurtz, Nathan; Farrell, Sinead; Newman, Thomas; Harbeck, Jeremy; Feltham, Daniel; Richter-Menge, Jackie

2016-01-01

We present an analysis of Arctic sea ice topography using high resolution, three-dimensional, surface elevation data from the Airborne Topographic Mapper, flown as part of NASA's Operation IceBridge mission. Surface features in the sea ice cover are detected using a newly developed surface feature picking algorithm. We derive information regarding the height, volume and geometry of surface features from 2009-2014 within the Beaufort/Chukchi and Central Arctic regions. The results are delineated by ice type to estimate the topographic variability across first-year and multi-year ice regimes.

A two-phase flow regime map for a MAPLE-type nuclear research reactor fuel channel: Effect of hexagonal finned bundle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvel, G.D.; Chang, J.S.

1997-01-01

A two-phase flow regime map is developed experimentally and theoretically for a vertical hexagonal flow channel with and without a 36-finned rod hexagonal bundle. This type of flow channel is of interest to MAPLE-type nuclear research reactors. The flow regime maps are determined by visual observations and observation of waveforms shown by a capacitance-type void fraction meter. The experimental results show that the inclusion of the finned hexagonal bundle shifts the flow regime transition boundaries toward higher water flow rates. Existing flow regime maps based on pipe flow require slight modifications when applied to the hexagonal flow channel with and without a MAPLE-type finned hexagonal bundle. The proposed theoretical model agrees well with experimental results

Flow regimes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liles, D.R.

1982-01-01

Internal boundaries in multiphase flow greatly complicate fluid-dynamic and heat-transfer descriptions. Different flow regimes or topological configurations can have radically dissimilar interfacial and wall mass, momentum, and energy exchanges. To model the flow dynamics properly requires estimates of these rates. In this paper the common flow regimes for gas-liquid systems are defined and the techniques used to estimate the extent of a particular regime are described. Also, the current computer-code procedures are delineated and introduce a potentially better method is introduced

Acoustics advances study of sea floor hydrothermal flow

Science.gov (United States)

Rona, Peter A.; Jackson, Darrell R.; Bemis, Karen G.; Jones, Christopher D.; Mitsuzawa, Kyohiko; Palmer, David R.; Silver, Deborah

Sub-sea floor hydrothermal convection systems discharge as plumes from point sources and as seepage from the ocean bottom. The plumes originate as clear, 150-400°C solutions that vent from mineralized chimneys; precipitate dissolved metals as particles to form black or white smokers as they turbulently mix with ambient seawater; and buoyantly rise hundreds of meters to a level of neutral density where they spread laterally. The seepage discharges from networks of fractures at the rock-water interface as clear, diffuse flow, with lower temperatures, metal contents, and buoyancy than the smokers. The diffuse flow may be entrained upward into plumes, or laterally by prevailing currents in discrete layers within tens of meters of the sea floor. The role of these flow regimes in dispersing heat, chemicals, and biological material into the ocean from sub-sea floor hydrothermal convection systems is being studied on a global scale.

Warming shelf seas drive the subtropicalization of European pelagic fish communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Montero-Serra, Ignasi; Edwards, Martin; Genner, Martin J

2015-01-01

Pelagic fishes are among the most ecologically and economically important fish species in European seas. In principle, these pelagic fishes have potential to demonstrate rapid abundance and distribution shifts in response to climatic variability due to their high adult motility, planktonic larval stages, and low dependence on benthic habitat for food or shelter during their life histories. Here, we provide evidence of substantial climate-driven changes to the structure of pelagic fish communities in European shelf seas. We investigated the patterns of species-level change using catch records from 57,870 fisheries-independent survey trawls from across European continental shelf region between 1965 and 2012. We analysed changes in the distribution and rate of occurrence of the six most common species, and observed a strong subtropicalization of the North Sea and Baltic Sea assemblages. These areas have shifted away from cold-water assemblages typically characterized by Atlantic herring and European sprat from the 1960s to 1980s, to warmer-water assemblages including Atlantic mackerel, Atlantic horse mackerel, European pilchard and European anchovy from the 1990s onwards. We next investigated if warming sea temperatures have forced these changes using temporally comprehensive data from the North Sea region. Our models indicated the primary driver of change in these species has been sea surface temperatures in all cases. Together, these analyses highlight how individual species responses have combined to result in a dramatic subtropicalization of the pelagic fish assemblage of the European continental shelf. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Influence of Sea Ice on Arctic Low Cloud Properties and Radiative Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Patrick C.

2015-01-01

The Arctic is one of the most climatically sensitive regions of the Earth. Climate models robustly project the Arctic to warm 2-3 times faster than the global mean surface temperature, termed polar warming amplification (PWA), but also display the widest range of surface temperature projections in this region. The response of the Arctic to increased CO2 modulates the response in tropical and extra-tropical regions through teleconnections in the atmospheric circulation. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in the northern mid-latitudes, for example, has been linked to the change in the background equator-to-pole temperature gradient implied by PWA. Understanding the Arctic climate system is therefore important for predicting global climate change. The ice albedo feedback is the primary mechanism driving PWA, however cloud and dynamical feedbacks significantly contribute. These feedback mechanisms, however, do not operate independently. How do clouds respond to variations in sea ice? This critical question is addressed by combining sea ice, cloud, and radiation observations from satellites, including CERES, CloudSAT, CALIPSO, MODIS, and microwave radiometers, to investigate sea ice-cloud interactions at the interannual timescale in the Arctic. Cloud characteristics are strongly tied to the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic state. Therefore, the sensitivity of Arctic cloud characteristics, vertical distribution and optical properties, to sea ice anomalies is computed within atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic regimes. Results indicate that the cloud response to changes in sea ice concentration differs significantly between atmospheric state regimes. This suggests that (1) the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics and (2) the characteristics of the marginal ice zone are important for determining the seasonal forcing by cloud on sea ice variability.

Lava Fountaining Discharge Regime driven by Slug-to-Churn Flow Transition. (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Ripepe, M.; Pioli, L.; Marchetti, E.; Ulivieri, G.

2013-12-01

Lava fountaining episodes at Etna volcano appear characterized by the transition between Strombolian and Hawaiian end-member eruptive styles. There is no evidence for this transition in the seismic (i.e. seismic tremor) signal. However, infrasonic records provide unprecedented evidence on this flow transition. Each eruptive episode is characterized by distinctive common trend in the amplitude, waveform and frequency content of the infrasonic wavefield, which evidences the shift from discrete, and transient, strombolian to sustained, and oscillatory, lava fountain dynamics. Large scale experiments on the dynamics of two-phase flow of basaltic magmas show how the transition between different regimes mainly depends on gas volume flow, which in turn controls pressure distribution within the conduit and also magma vesicularity. In particular, while regular large bubble bursting is associated with slug flow regime, large amplitude and low frequency column oscillations are associated with churn flow. In large pipes, transition from slug to churn flow regime is independent on conduit diameter and it is reached at high superficial gas velocity. Lava fountaining episodes at Etna can be thus interpreted as induced by the transition from the slug (discrete strombolian) to churn flow (sustained lava fountain) regimes that is reflecting an increase in the gas discharge rate. Based on laboratory experiments, we calculate that transition between these two end-member explosive regimes at Etna occurs when gas superficial velocity is 76 m/s for near-the-vent stagnant magma conditions.

A climatology of low level wind regimes over Central America using a weather type classification approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernán eSáenz

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Based on the potential of the weather types classification method to study synoptic features, this study proposes the application of such methodology for the identification of the main large scale patterns related with weather in Central America. Using ERA Interim low-level winds in a domain that encompasses the intra-Americas sea, the eastern tropical Pacific, southern North America, Central America and northern South America; the K-means clustering algorithm was applied to find recurrent regimes of low-level winds. Eleven regimes were identified and good coherency between the results and known features of regional circulation was found. It was determined that the main large scale patterns can be either locally forced or a response to tropical-extratropical interactions. Moreover, the local forcing dominates the summer regimes whereas mid latitude interactions lead winter regimes. The study of the relationship between the large scale patterns and regional precipitation shows that winter regimes are related with the Caribbean-Pacific precipitation seesaw. Summer regimes, on the other hand, enhance the Caribbean-Pacific precipitation contrasting distribution as a function of the dominant regimes. A strong influence of ENSO on the frequency and duration of the regimes was found. It was determined that the specific effect of ENSO on the regimes depends on whether the circulation is locally forced or lead by the interaction between the tropics and the mid-latitudes. The study of the cold surges using the information of the identified regimes revealed that three regimes are linkable with the occurrence of cold surges that affect Central America and its precipitation. As the winter regimes are largely dependent of mid-latitude interaction with the tropics, the effect that ENSO has on the Jet Stream is reflected in the winter regimes. An automated analysis of large scale conditions based on reanalysis and/or model data seems useful for both dynamical

Historical marine ecology: examining the role of fisheries in changes in North Sea benthos.

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, Leonie A; Frid, Chris L J

2008-07-01

The organisms living on and in the sea floor, the benthos, represent an important ecological group. Although some (shellfish) have an economic value, most do not, and so little long-term data are available. We have identified three sources of historic benthic data for the North Sea, a regional sea that has been subjected to multiple human impacts for at least several hundred years. Each dataset has its limitations, but by their use together some issues emerge. Wider community shifts were observed in the shorter term and a number of extirpations at the scale of the North Sea were seen over longer time scales. The extirpated taxa share a number of characteristics consistent with an effect of fisheries such as fragile morphology. We must concentrate now on furthering our understanding of the ecological significance of shifts in dominance of particular functional units and protecting those habitats and species most vulnerable to fisheries-driven extirpation.

Mercantilist Development in Russia: The Legitimacy of State Power, State Identity, and the Energy Charter Regime (1990--2010)

Science.gov (United States)

Bruynooghe, Daniel; Wynn, Henry P.

This dissertation investigates the creation, adaptation, and demise of international regimes. Specifically, I ask why international regimes sometimes fail to fulfill their original purpose. Empirically, I examine the evolution and eventual failure of the Energy Charter (ECH), a multilateral regime that governs the Eurasian energy economy. Modeled after the European Steel and Coal Community, the original goal of the regime was to capitalize on economic complementarities in energy to integrate Gorbachev's reforming USSR (later Russia) with Europe and promote pan-European cooperation and peace. By 2010, integration had failed, and the regime itself had become a source of conflict. To understand this outcome, I focus on the foreign energy policy of Russia, a central state within the ECH, which actively participated in designing the regime in the 1990s but two decades later decided that it was no longer in its interest. Using data collected from interviews and archival searches during field research in Russia, Brussels, and Paris, I find that under President Yeltsin, low domestic sovereignty meant the state could not integrate key domestic players into ECH policy-making. This led Russia to conclude a bargain that it could not implement domestically. Under President Putin, high domestic sovereignty meant the state had sufficient capacity to corral these recalcitrant actors. However, the new policy that emerged compelled Russia to attempt to modify the ECH in ways that violated previously accepted norms, thereby alienating its European partners and undermining the regime. This study supports Hegemonic Stability theory which suggests that we can expect regime failure after major shifts in the distribution of power produce changes in the interests and policies of key states. I extend this finding by showing that Russian state power increased due to changes in elite conceptions about the legitimacy of state power. I demonstrate this by using over time comparisons between

Correlation between sea surface temperature and wind speed in Greenland Sea and their relationships with NAO variability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Qu

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO is one of the major causes of many recent changes in the Arctic Ocean. Generally, it is related to wind speed, sea surface temperature (SST, and sea ice cover. In this study, we analyzed the distributions of and correlations between SST, wind speed, NAO, and sea ice cover from 2003 to 2009 in the Greenland Sea at 10°W to 10°E, 65°N to 80°N. SST reached its peak in July, while wind speed reached its minimum in July. Seasonal variability of SST and wind speed was different for different regions. SST and wind speed mainly had negative correlations. Detailed correlation research was focused on the 75°N to 80°N band. Regression analysis shows that in this band, the variation of SST lagged three months behind that of wind speed. Ice cover and NAO had a positive correlation, and the correlation coefficient between ice cover and NAO in the year 2007 was 0.61. SST and NAO also had a positive correlation, and SST influenced NAO one month in advance. The correlation coefficients between SST and NAO reached 0.944 for the year 2005, 0.7 for the year 2008, and 0.74 for the year 2009 after shifting SST one month later. NAO also had a positive correlation with wind speed, and it also influenced wind speed one month in advance. The correlation coefficients between NAO and wind speed reached 0.783, 0.813, and 0.818 for the years 2004, 2005, and 2008, respectively, after shifting wind speed one month earlier.

Post-Cold War Effects on the Non-proliferation Regime

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kessler, Carol E.

2006-03-31

This journal article analyzes nuclear and security related events of the past 15 years to illustrate the changes in geopolitics and the shifting balance of power following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Reflection upon these events establishes the context for strengthening the nonproliferation regime. The author concludes that post Soviet communism hastened the movement towards a unipolar system with hegemonic power vested in the United States, and this geopolitical imbalance fostered insecurities and greater threats. Multilateral cooperation and commitment from the US would help this leader achieve its goal of security through increased global confidence in the international system.

Assessing Air-Sea Interaction in the Evolving NASA GEOS Model

Science.gov (United States)

Clayson, Carol Anne; Roberts, J. Brent

2015-01-01

In order to understand how the climate responds to variations in forcing, one necessary component is to understand the full distribution of variability of exchanges of heat and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean. Surface heat and moisture fluxes are critical to the generation and decay of many coupled air-sea phenomena. These mechanisms operate across a number of scales and contain contributions from interactions between the anomalous (i.e. non-mean), often extreme-valued, flux components. Satellite-derived estimates of the surface turbulent and radiative heat fluxes provide an opportunity to assess results from modeling systems. Evaluation of only time mean and variability statistics, however only provides limited traceability to processes controlling what are often regime-dependent errors. This work will present an approach to evaluate the representation of the turbulent fluxes at the air-sea interface in the current and evolving Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. A temperature and moisture vertical profile-based clustering technique is used to identify robust weather regimes, and subsequently intercompare the turbulent fluxes and near-surface parameters within these regimes in both satellite estimates and GEOS-driven data sets. Both model reanalysis (MERRA) and seasonal-to-interannual coupled GEOS model simulations will be evaluated. Particular emphasis is placed on understanding the distribution of the fluxes including extremes, and the representation of near-surface forcing variables directly related to their estimation. Results from these analyses will help identify the existence and source of regime-dependent biases in the GEOS model ocean surface turbulent fluxes. The use of the temperature and moisture profiles for weather-state clustering will be highlighted for its potential broad application to 3-D output typical of model simulations.

Definition of water exchange zone between the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea and the effect of winter gale on it

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

SONG Jun; GUO Junru; LI Jing; MU Lin; LIU Yulong; WANG Guosong; LI Yan; LI Huan

2017-01-01

The marine dynamic environment of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea in the winter of 2006 is simulated by the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) marine numerical model. Using the simulated temperature and salinity, the water exchange zone between the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea is defined through the Spectral Mixture Model (SMM). The influence of winter gales on the water exchange is also discussed. It is found that the Yellow Sea water masses in winter are distributed in a “tongue” shape in the Bohai Strait region, the water exchange zone presents a zonal distribution along the margin of the “tongue”, with a tendency of running from northwest to southeast, and the water exchange is intensified at the tip of the “tongue”. Besides, the coastal area in the northernmost Yellow Sea does not participate in the water exchange between the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea. The result shows that the winter gale events play a role in enhancing the water exchange. It is specifically shown by the facts: the Yellow Sea warm current is enhanced to intrude the Bohai Sea by the gale process; the water exchange zone extends into the Bohai Sea; the water exchange belt in the southern part becomes wider; the mixture zone of river runoff with the Bohai Sea water upon its entry is enlarged and shifts northwards. Within two days after the gale process, the exchange zone retreats toward the Yellow Sea and the exchange zone resulted from the Huanghe River (Yellow River) runoff also shrinks back shoreward.

Transforming Water Supply Regimes in India: Do Public-Private Partnerships Have a Role to Play?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Govind Gopakumar

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Public-private partnerships (PPP are an important governance strategy that has recently emerged as a solution to enhance the access of marginalised residents to urban infrastructures. With the inception of neo-liberal economic reforms in India, in Indian cities too PPP has emerged as an innovative approach to expand coverage of water supply and sanitation infrastructures. However, there has been little study of the dynamics of partnership efforts in different urban contexts: What role do they play in transforming existing infrastructure regimes? Do reform strategies such as partnerships result in increased privatisation or do they make the governance of infrastructures more participative? Reviewing some of the recent literature on urban political analysis, this article develops the concept of water supply regime to describe the context of water provision in three metropolitan cities in India. To further our understanding of the role of PPP within regimes, this article sketches five cases of water supply and sanitation partnerships located within these three metropolitan cities. From these empirical studies, the article arrives at the conclusion that while PPP are always products of the regime-context they are inserted within, quite often strategic actors in the partnership use the PPP to further their interests by initiating a shift in the regime pathway. This leads us to conclude that PPPs do play a role in making water supply regimes more participative but that depends on the nature of the regime as well as the actions of partners.

Temporal changes in plankton of the North Sea: community shfits and environmental drivers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alvarez-Fernandez, S.; Lindeboom, H.J.; Meesters, H.W.G.

2012-01-01

This paper analyses long-term and seasonal changes in the North Sea plankton community during the period 1970 to 2008. Based on Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) data covering 38 yr, major changes in both phytoplankton and zooplankton abundance and community structure were identified. Regime

Nutrient enrichment shifts mangrove height distribution: Implications for coastal woody encroachment.

Science.gov (United States)

Weaver, Carolyn A; Armitage, Anna R

2018-01-01

Global changes, such as increased temperatures and elevated CO2, are driving shifts in plant species distribution and dominance, like woody plant encroachment into grasslands. Local factors within these ecotones can influence the rate of regime shifts. Woody encroachment is occurring worldwide, though there has been limited research within coastal systems, where mangrove (woody shrub/tree) stands are expanding into salt marsh areas. Because coastal systems are exposed to various degrees of nutrient input, we investigated how nutrient enrichment may locally impact mangrove stand expansion and salt marsh displacement over time. We fertilized naturally co-occurring Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) and Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) stands in Port Aransas, TX, an area experiencing mangrove encroachment within the Northern Gulf of Mexico mangrove-marsh ecotone. After four growing seasons (2010-2013) of continuous fertilization, Avicennia was more positively influenced by nutrient enrichment than Spartina. Most notably, fertilized plots had a higher density of taller (> 0.5 m) mangroves and mangrove maximum height was 46% taller than in control plots. Fertilization may promote an increase in mangrove stand expansion within the mangrove-marsh ecotone by shifting Avicennia height distribution. Avicennia individuals, which reach certain species-specific height thresholds, have reduced negative neighbor effects and have higher resilience to freezing temperatures, which may increase mangrove competitive advantage over marsh grass. Therefore, we propose that nutrient enrichment, which augments mangrove height, could act locally as a positive feedback to mangrove encroachment, by reducing mangrove growth suppression factors, thereby accelerating the rates of increased mangrove coverage and subsequent marsh displacement. Areas within the mangrove-marsh ecotone with high anthropogenic nutrient input may be at increased risk of a regime shift from grass to woody

Nutrient enrichment shifts mangrove height distribution: Implications for coastal woody encroachment

Science.gov (United States)

Armitage, Anna R.

2018-01-01

Global changes, such as increased temperatures and elevated CO2, are driving shifts in plant species distribution and dominance, like woody plant encroachment into grasslands. Local factors within these ecotones can influence the rate of regime shifts. Woody encroachment is occurring worldwide, though there has been limited research within coastal systems, where mangrove (woody shrub/tree) stands are expanding into salt marsh areas. Because coastal systems are exposed to various degrees of nutrient input, we investigated how nutrient enrichment may locally impact mangrove stand expansion and salt marsh displacement over time. We fertilized naturally co-occurring Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) and Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) stands in Port Aransas, TX, an area experiencing mangrove encroachment within the Northern Gulf of Mexico mangrove-marsh ecotone. After four growing seasons (2010–2013) of continuous fertilization, Avicennia was more positively influenced by nutrient enrichment than Spartina. Most notably, fertilized plots had a higher density of taller (> 0.5 m) mangroves and mangrove maximum height was 46% taller than in control plots. Fertilization may promote an increase in mangrove stand expansion within the mangrove-marsh ecotone by shifting Avicennia height distribution. Avicennia individuals, which reach certain species-specific height thresholds, have reduced negative neighbor effects and have higher resilience to freezing temperatures, which may increase mangrove competitive advantage over marsh grass. Therefore, we propose that nutrient enrichment, which augments mangrove height, could act locally as a positive feedback to mangrove encroachment, by reducing mangrove growth suppression factors, thereby accelerating the rates of increased mangrove coverage and subsequent marsh displacement. Areas within the mangrove-marsh ecotone with high anthropogenic nutrient input may be at increased risk of a regime shift from grass to woody

Transition from weak wave turbulence regime to solitonic regime

Science.gov (United States)

Hassani, Roumaissa; Mordant, Nicolas

2017-11-01

The Weak Turbulence Theory (WTT) is a statistical theory describing the interaction of a large ensemble of random waves characterized by very different length scales. For both weak non-linearity and weak dispersion a different regime is predicted where solitons propagate while keeping their shape unchanged. The question under investigation here is which regime between weak turbulence or soliton gas does the system choose ? We report an experimental investigation of wave turbulence at the surface of finite depth water in the gravity-capillary range. We tune the wave dispersion and the level of nonlinearity by modifying the depth of water and the forcing respectively. We use space-time resolved profilometry to reconstruct the deformed surface of water. When decreasing the water depth, we observe a drastic transition between weak turbulence at the weakest forcing and a solitonic regime at stronger forcing. We characterize the transition between both states by studying their Fourier Spectra. We also study the efficiency of energy transfer in the weak turbulence regime. We report a loss of efficiency of angular transfer as the dispersion of the wave is reduced until the system bifurcates into the solitonic regime. This project has recieved funding from the European Research Council (ERC, Grant Agreement No. 647018-WATU).

Carbon sources and trophic relationships of ice seals during recent environmental shifts in the Bering Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shiway W; Springer, Alan M; Budge, Suzanne M; Horstmann, Lara; Quakenbush, Lori T; Wooller, Matthew J

2016-04-01

Dramatic multiyear fluctuations in water temperature and seasonal sea ice extent and duration across the Bering-Chukchi continental shelf have occurred in this century, raising a pressing ecological question: Do such environmental changes alter marine production processes linking primary producers to upper trophic-level predators? We examined this question by comparing the blubber fatty acid (FA) composition and stable carbon isotope ratios of individual FA (δ¹³CFA) of adult ringed seals (Pusa hispida), bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus), spotted seals (Phoca largha), and ribbon seals (Histriophoca fasciata), collectively known as "ice seals," sampled during an anomalously warm, low sea ice period in 2002-2005 in the Bering Sea and a subsequent cold, high sea ice period in 2007-2010. δ¹³C(FA) values, used to estimate the contribution to seals of carbon derived from sea ice algae (sympagic production) relative to that derived from water column phytoplankton (pelagic production), indicated that during the cold period, sympagic production accounted for 62-80% of the FA in the blubber of bearded seals, 51-62% in spotted seals, and 21-60% in ringed seals. Moreover, the δ¹³CFA values of bearded seals indicated a greater incorporation of sympagic FAs during the cold period than the warm period. This result provides the first empirical evidence of an ecosystem-scale effect of a putative change in sympagic production in the Western Arctic. The FA composition of ice seals showed clear evidence of resource partitioning among ringed, bearded, and spotted seals, and little niche separation between spotted and ribbon seals, which is consistent with previous studies. Despite interannual variability, the FA composition of ringed and bearded seals showed little evidence of differences in diet between the warm and cold periods. The findings that sympagic production contributes significantly to food webs supporting ice seals, and that the contribution apparently is less in

There goes the sea ice: following Arctic sea ice parcels and their properties.

Science.gov (United States)

Tschudi, M. A.; Tooth, M.; Meier, W.; Stewart, S.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice distribution has changed considerably over the last couple of decades. Sea ice extent record minimums have been observed in recent years, the distribution of ice age now heavily favors younger ice, and sea ice is likely thinning. This new state of the Arctic sea ice cover has several impacts, including effects on marine life, feedback on the warming of the ocean and atmosphere, and on the future evolution of the ice pack. The shift in the state of the ice cover, from a pack dominated by older ice, to the current state of a pack with mostly young ice, impacts specific properties of the ice pack, and consequently the pack's response to the changing Arctic climate. For example, younger ice typically contains more numerous melt ponds during the melt season, resulting in a lower albedo. First-year ice is typically thinner and more fragile than multi-year ice, making it more susceptible to dynamic and thermodynamic forcing. To investigate the response of the ice pack to climate forcing during summertime melt, we have developed a database that tracks individual Arctic sea ice parcels along with associated properties as these parcels advect during the summer. Our database tracks parcels in the Beaufort Sea, from 1985 - present, along with variables such as ice surface temperature, albedo, ice concentration, and convergence. We are using this database to deduce how these thousands of tracked parcels fare during summer melt, i.e. what fraction of the parcels advect through the Beaufort, and what fraction melts out? The tracked variables describe the thermodynamic and dynamic forcing on these parcels during their journey. This database will also be made available to all interested investigators, after it is published in the near future. The attached image shows the ice surface temperature of all parcels (right) that advected through the Beaufort Sea region (left) in 2014.

Diatom Surface Sediment Assemblages from the Bering Sea Shelf: a Tossed Salad or Faithful Recorder of 50 Years of Environmental Change?

Science.gov (United States)

Caissie, B.; Brigham-Grette, J.; Kanamaru-Shinn, K.

2010-12-01

Recent environmental change in the Bering Sea includes a shift from the negative to positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in 1976/77, a secondary shift in sea level pressure and sea surface temperatures in 1998, increasing sea surface temperatures, an earlier spring, an increase in the number of days that sea ice is present along the shelf-slope break, and a decrease in the number of days that sea ice is present in the Chukchi Sea and Arctic Ocean. These physical changes have manifest biological changes such as a northward migration of invertebrates and fish from the southern Bering Sea and shifts in the timing and duration of sea-ice related primary productivity and the spring bloom. We aim to see if diatom sediment assemblages are faithful recorders of these ecological changes in the Bering Sea or if bioturbation has essentially mixed today’s rapid change down core such that the signal is either muted or no longer apparent. Six continental shelf areas were examined in the Bering Sea ranging from northeast of St. Lawrence Island to the shelf-slope break in the south-central Bering Sea. Diatom assemblages from core tops collected as part of the PROBES program in the 1960s were compared to core tops taken nearby (7 m) multi-year ice so their decline may be related to the decrease in multi-year ice over the past 30 years. Additionally, in most cases, species diversity has declined over the past 50 years with Fragilariopsis oceanica and Fragilariopsis cylindrus accounting for a greater percentage of the sediment assemblages today. These two species are collectively considered indicators of seasonal sea ice; their relative abundance peaks when ice is present for 5 months per year. Ongoing down core analyses in these six areas will further reveal the nature of these assemblage changes.

Fracture-zone tectonics at Zabargad Island, Red Sea (Egypt)

Science.gov (United States)

Marshak, Stephen; Bonatti, Enrico; Brueckner, Hannes; Paulsen, Timothy

1992-12-01

Zabargad Island, which lies along the western margin of the Red Sea rift, is a remarkable place because it provides fresh exposures of undepleted mantle peridotite. How this peridotite came to be exposed on Zabargad remains unclear. Our field mapping indicates that most of the contacts between peridotite and the adjacent bodies of Pan-African gneiss and Cretaceous(?) Zabargad Formation on the island are now high-angle brittle faults. Zabargad Formation strata have been complexly folded, partly in response to this faulting. Overall, the array of high-angle faults and associated folds on the island resembles those found in cross-rift transfer zones. We suggest, therefore, that the Zabargad fracture zone, a band of submarine escarpments on the floor of the Red Sea north of the island, crosses Zabargad Island and has actively resolved differential movement between the central Red Sea rift and the northern Red Sea rift. The final stage of uplift that brought the unusual peridotite to the earth's surface is related to shallow crustal transpression, which may have inverted an earlier transtensional regime.

Trickle/pulse flow regime transition in downflow packed tower involving foaming liquids

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sodhi Vijay

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The most of past studies in foaming trickle bed reactors aimed at the improvement of efficiency and operational parameters leads to high economic advantages. Conventionally most of the industries rely on frequently used gas continuous flow (GCF where operational output is satisfactory but not yields efficiently as in pulsing flow (PF and foaming pulsing flow (FPF. Hydrodynamic characteristics like regime transitions are significantly influenced by foaming nature of liquid as well as gas and liquid flow rates. This study’s aim was to demonstrate experimentally the effects of liquid flow rate, gas flow rates and liquid surface tension on regime transition. These parameters were analyzed for the air-aqueous Sodium Lauryl Sulphate and air-water systems. More than 240 experiments were done to obtain the transition boundary for trickle flow (GCF to foaming pulsing flow (PF/FPF by use excessive foaming 15-60 ppm surfactant compositions. The trickle to pulse flow transition appeared at lower gas and liquid flow rates with decrease in liquid surface tension. All experimental data had been collected and drawn in the form of four different transitional plots which are compared and drawn by using flow coordinates proposed by different researchers. A prominent decrease in dynamic liquid saturation was observed especially during regime transitional change. The reactor two phase pressure evident a sharp rise to verify the regime transition shift from GCF to PF/FPF. Present study reveals, the regime transition boundary significantly influenced by any change in hydrodynamic as well as physiochemical properties including surface tension.

Seasonal and inter-annual temperature variability in the bottom waters over the Black Sea shelf

Science.gov (United States)

Shapiro, G. I.; Wobus, F.; Aleynik, D. L.

2011-02-01

Long-term changes in the state of the Bottom Shelf Water (BSW) on the Western shelf of the Black Sea are assessed using analysis of intra- and inter-annual variations of temperature as well as their relations to physical parameters of both shelf and deep-sea waters. First, large data sets of in-situ observations over the 20th century are compiled into high-resolution monthly climatology at different depth levels. Then, the temperature anomalies from the climatic mean are calculated and aggregated into spatial compartments and seasonal bins to reveal temporal evolution of the BSW. For the purpose of this study the BSW is defined as such shelf water body between the seabed and the upper mixed layer (bounded by the σθ = 14.2 isopycnal) which has limited ability to mix vertically with oxygen-rich surface waters during the warm season (May-November) due to the formation of a seasonal pycnocline. The effects of atmospheric processes at the surface on the BSW are hence suppressed as well as the action of the "biological pump". The vertical extent of the near- bottom waters is determined based on energy considerations and the structure of the seasonal pycnocline, whilst the horizontal extent is controlled by the shelf break, where strong along-slope currents hinder exchanges with the deep sea. The BSW is shown to occupy nearly half of the area of the shelf during the summer stratification period. The potential of the BSW to ventilate horizontally during the warm season with the deep-sea waters is assessed using isopycnic analysis of temperature variations. A long-term time series of temperature anomalies in the BSW is constructed from observations during the May-November period for the 2nd half of the 20th century. The results reveal a warm phase in the 1960s/70s, followed by cooling of the BSW during 1980-2001. The transition between the warm and cold periods coincides with a regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem. While it was confirmed that the memory of winter

Resource manager information needs regarding hydrologic regime shifts for the North Pacific Landscape Conservation

Science.gov (United States)

Woodward, Andrea; Jenni, Karen

2014-01-01

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network of 22 public-private partnerships, defined by ecoregion, that share and provide science to ensure the sustainability of land, water, wildlife, and cultural resources in North America. LCCs were established by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) in recognition of the fact that response to climate change must be coordinated on a landscape-level basis because important resources, ecosystem processes, and resource management challenges extend beyond most of the boundaries considered in current natural resource management. The North Pacific LCC (NPLCC) covers the range of the Pacific coastal temperate rainforest, including an area of 528,360 km2 spanning 22 degrees of latitude from the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, to Bodega Bay, California. The coverage area includes parts of four States, two Canadian provinces, and more than 100 Tribes and First Nation language groups. It extends from alpine areas at the crest of coastal mountains across subalpine, montane, and lowland forests to the nearshore marine environment. This wide range of latitudes and elevation zones; terrestrial, freshwater, and marine habitats; and complex jurisdictional boundaries hosts a diversity of natural resources and their corresponding management issues are equally diverse. As evidenced by the Science and Traditional Ecological Knowledge (S-TEK) Strategy guiding principles, identifying and responding to the needs of resource managers is key to the success of the NPLCC. To help achieve this goal of the NPLCC, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has organized several workshops with resource managers and resource scientists to identify management information needs relevant to the priority topics identified in the S-TEK Strategy. Here, we detail the results from a first workshop to address the effects of changes in hydrologic regime on rivers, streams, and riparian corridors. The workshop focused on a subset of the full NPLCC geography and was

The Dead Sea: A model of a desiccating terminal salt lake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gat, J.R.

2001-01-01

The continuing decline in the water level of the Dead Sea and the commensurate increase in salinity and precipitation of evaporates results in an irreversible evolution of the structure of the sea. The Dead Sea has been switching from its holomictic regime to short meromictic phases of up to 4-year duration, following the particular rainy winters of 1980 and 1992. The massive precipitation of halite in recent years, as well as the re-introduction of the end-brines of the potash plant, is changing the ion composition of the Dead Sea waters. This necessitates the adjustment of the equation-of-state of the brine and the solubility curve of halite. One consequence is that the onset of halite precipitation during the summer occurs earlier and earlier in the annual cycle. New isotopic measurement of δ 37 Cl of the brine and evaporate deposits and of δ 18 O in dissolved oxygen in the water column have yielded new information on geochemical processes in the Dead Sea system. A systematic monitoring of the oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in the Dead Sea waters has, unfortunately, not been continued in recent years and should be encouraged for the future. (author)

Shift of the circumstances in effluent pollutant loads and water pollution in the Seto Inland Sea; Setonaikai ni okeru odaku fukaryo to suishitsu no hensen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shimizu, T. [Hiroshima Prefectural Institute of Public Health and Environment, Hiroshima (Japan); Komai, Y. [Hyogo Prefectural Institute of Environmental Science, Kobe (Japan); Koyama, T. [Wakayama Prefectural Research Center of Environment and Public Health, Wakayama (Japan); Nagafuchi, O. [Fukuoka Institute of Health and Environment Science, Fukuoka (Japan); Hino, Y. [Kagawa Prefecture Environmental Research Center, Kagawa (Japan); Murakami, K. [Okayama Prefectural Institute for Environmental and Public Health, Okayama (Japan)

1998-11-10

The relationship between the shift of the amount of effluent pollutant loads and the quality of water in and after the 1970s is studied for the verification of the effect of wastewater control and pollution measures for the Seto Inland Sea. The pollution loads are analyzed using the population, sewerage system diffusion rate, industrial production amount, number of farm animals, etc., gathered from existing data, and the quality of water is analyzed using the surface layer data collected at 124 sites. Although population as the source of pollutant loads has enlarged, the enlargement does not bring about a significant change in the loads, this partly due to the diffusion of sewerage systems. The rates of reduction in the 1979-1994 period of COD (chemical oxygen demand), T-N (total nitrogen), and T-P (total phosphorus) are 25.2%, 5.3%, and 30.3%, respectively. COD has returned to the previous level, but transparency has turned poorer. T-N and T-P worsened in the 1985-1989 period, and have not yet returned to the levels of 1980-1984. Pollution is in progress in Osaka Bay, Hiroshima Bay, and some others. In some sea areas, transparency is improving, with COD and Chl.a on the increase. From the nutrient salt and Chl.a scatter diagrams, the potential of algal growth relative to the concentration of nutrient salts may be estimated. Organic pollution is affected by algal growth. The organic matters produced in the inland sea are approximately 20 times as much as the organic matters produced on land. 18 refs., 11 figs., 2 tabs.

Three modes of interdecadal trends in sea surface temperature and sea surface height

Science.gov (United States)

Gnanadesikan, A.; Pradal, M.

2013-12-01

It might be thought that sea surface height and sea surface temperature would be tightly related. We show that this is not necessarily the case on a global scale. We analysed this relationship in a suite of coupled climate models run under 1860 forcing conditions. The models are low-resolution variants of the GFDL Earth System Model, reported in Galbraith et al. (J. Clim. 2011). 1. Correlated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode corresponds to opening and closing of convective chimneys in the Southern Ocean. As the Southern Ocean destratifies, sea ice formation is suppressed during the winter and more heat is taken up during the summer. This mode of variability is highly correlated with changes in the top of the atmosphere radiative budget and weakly correlated with changes in the deep ocean circulation. 2. Uncorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode of variability is associated with interdecadal variabliity in tropical winds. Changes in the advective flux of heat to the surface ocean play a critical role in driving these changes, which also result in significant local changes in sea level. Changes sea ice over the Southern Ocean still result in changes in solar absorption, but these are now largely cancelled by changes in outgoing longwave radiation. 3. Anticorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperatures. By varying the lateral diffusion coefficient in the ocean model, we are able to enhance and suppress convection in the Southern and Northern Pacific Oceans. Increasing the lateral diffusion coefficients shifts the balance sources of deep water away from the warm salty deep water of the North Atlantic and towards cold fresh deep water from the other two regions. As a result, even though the planet as a whole warms, the deep ocean cools and sea level falls, with changes of order 30 cm over 500 years. The increase in solar absorption

Collective behaviour of climate indices in the North Pacific air—sea system and its potential relationships with decadal climate changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xiao-Juan; Zhi Rong; He Wen-Ping; Gong Zhi-Qiang

2012-01-01

A climate network of six climate indices of the North Pacific air—sea system is constructed during the period of 1948–2009. In order to find out the inherent relationship between the intrinsic mechanism of climate index network and the important climate shift, the synchronization behaviour and the coupling behaviour of these indices are investigated. Results indicate that climate network synchronization happened around the beginning of the 1960s, in the middle of the 1970s and at the beginnings of the 1990s and the 2000s separately. These synchronization states were always followed by the decrease of the coupling coefficient. Each synchronization of the network was well associated with the abrupt phase or trend changes of annually accumulated abnormal values of North Pacific sea-surface temperature and 500-hPa height, among which the one that happened in the middle of the 1970s is the most noticeable climate shift. We can also obtain this mysterious shift from the first mode of the empirical orthogonal function of six indices. That is to say, abrupt climate shift in North Pacific air—sea system is not only shown by the phase or trend changes of climate indices, but also might be indicated by the synchronizing and the coupling of climate indices. Furthermore, at the turning point of 1975, there are also abrupt correlation changes in the yearly mode of spatial degree distribution of the sea surface temperature and 500-hPa height in the region of the North Pacific, which further proves the probability of climate index synchronization and coupling shift in air—sea systems. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

Collective behaviour of climate indices in the North Pacific air-sea system and its potential relationships with decadal climate changes

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Wang Xiao-Juan; Zhi Rong; He Wen-Ping; Gong Zhi-Qiang

2012-01-01

A climate network of six climate indices of the North Pacific air-sea system is constructed during the period of 1948-2009.In order to find out the inherent relationship between the intrinsic mechanism of climate index network and the important climate shift,the synchronization behaviour and the coupling behaviour of these indices are investigated.Results indicate that climate network synchronization happened around the beginning of the 1960s,in the middle of the 1970s and at the beginnings of the 1990s and the 2000s separately.These synchronization states were always followed by the decrease of the coupling coefficient.Each synchronization of the network was well associated with the abrupt phase or trend changes of annually accumulated abnormal vaiues of North Pacific sea-surface temperature and 500-hPa height,among which the one that happened in the middle of the 1970s is the most noticeable climate shift.We can also obtain this mysterious shift from the first mode of the empirical orthogonal function of six indices.That is to say,abrupt climate shift in North Pacific air-sea system is not only shown by the phase or trend changes of climate indices,but also night be indicated by the synchronizing and the coupling of climate indices.Furthermore,at the turning point of 1975,there are also abrupt correlation changes in the yearly mode of spatial degree distribution of the sea surface temperature and 500-hPa height in the region of the North Pacific,which further proves the probability of climate index synchronization and coupling shift in air-sea systems.

Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

2011-01-01

The timing of the seasons strongly effects ecosystems and human activities. Recently, there is increasing evidence of changes in the timing of the seasons, such as earlier spring seasons detected in phenological records, advanced seasonal timing of surface temperature, earlier snow melt or streamflow timing. For water resources management there is a need to quantitatively describe the variability in the timing of hydrological regimes and to understand how climatic changes control the seasonal water budget of river basins on the regional scale. In this study, changes of the annual cycle of hydrological variables are analysed for 27 river basins in Saxony/Germany. Thereby monthly series of basin runoff ratios, the ratio of runoff and basin precipitation are investigated for changes and variability of their annual periodicity over the period 1930-2009. Approximating the annual cycle by the means of harmonic functions gave acceptable results, while only two parameters, phase and amplitude, are required. It has been found that the annual phase of runoff ratio, representing the timing of the hydrological regime, is subject to considerable year-to-year variability, being concurrent with basins in similar hydro-climatic conditions. Two distinct basin classes have been identified, whereby basin elevation has been found to be the delimiting factor. An increasing importance of snow on the basin water balance with elevation is apparent and mainly governs the temporal variability of the annual timing of hydrological regimes. Further there is evidence of coincident changes in trend direction (change points in 1971 and 1988) in snow melt influenced basins. In these basins the timing of the runoff ratio is significantly correlated with the timing of temperature, and effects on runoff by temperature phase changes are even amplified. Interestingly, temperature effects may explain the low frequent variability of the second change point until today. However, the first change point can

Female sea lamprey shift orientation toward a conspecific chemical cue to escape a sensory trap

Science.gov (United States)

Brant, Cory O.; Johnson, Nicholas; Li, Ke; Buchinger, Tyler J.; Li, Weiming

2016-01-01

The sensory trap model of signal evolution hypothesizes that signalers adapt to exploit a cue used by the receiver in another context. Although exploitation of receiver biases can result in conflict between the sexes, deceptive signaling systems that are mutually beneficial drive the evolution of stable communication systems. However, female responses in the nonsexual and sexual contexts may become uncoupled if costs are associated with exhibiting a similar response to a trait in both contexts. Male sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) signal with a mating pheromone, 3-keto petromyzonol sulfate (3kPZS), which may be a match to a juvenile cue used by females during migration. Upstream movement of migratory lampreys is partially guided by 3kPZS, but females only move toward 3kPZS with proximal accuracy during spawning. Here, we use in-stream behavioral assays paired with gonad histology to document the transition of female preference for juvenile- and male-released 3kPZS that coincides with the functional shift of 3kPZS as a migratory cue to a mating pheromone. Females became increasingly biased toward the source of synthesized 3kPZS as their maturation progressed into the reproductive phase, at which point, a preference for juvenile odor (also containing 3kPZS naturally) ceased to exist. Uncoupling of female responses during migration and spawning makes the 3kPZS communication system a reliable means of synchronizing mate search. The present study offers a rare example of a transition in female responses to a chemical cue between nonsexual and sexual contexts, provides insights into the origins of stable communication signaling systems.

Inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between local sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Haikun; Wu, Liguang; Raga, G. B.

2018-02-01

This study documents the inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between the TC frequency (TCF) and the local sea surface temperature (SST) in the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1979-2014. An abrupt shift of the lagged relationship between them is observed to occur in 1998. Before the shift (1979-1997), a moderately positive correlation (0.35) between previous-year local SST and TCF is found, while a significantly negative correlation (- 0.71) is found since the shift (1998-2014). The inter-decadal change of the lagged relationship between TCF and local SST over the WNP is also accompanied by an inter-decadal change in the lagged inter-annual relationship between large-scale factors affecting TCs and local SST over the WNP. During 1998-2014, the previous-year local SST shows a significant negative correlation with the mid-level moisture and a significant positive correlation with the vertical wind shear over the main development region of WNP TC genesis. Almost opposite relationships are seen during 1979-1997, with a smaller magnitude of the correlation coefficients. These changes are consistent with the changes of the lagged inter-annual relationship between upper- and lower-level winds and local SST over the WNP. Analyses further suggests that the inter-decadal shift of the lagged inter-annual relationship between WNP TCF and local SST may be closely linked to the inter-decadal change of inter-annual SST transition over the tropical central-eastern Pacific associated with the climate regime shift in the late 1990s. Details on the underlying physical process need further investigation using observations and simulations.

Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift.

Science.gov (United States)

Ling, S D; Johnson, C R; Frusher, S D; Ridgway, K R

2009-12-29

A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.

Bragg-Scattering Four-Wave Mixing in Nonlinear Fibers with Intracavity Frequency-Shifted Laser Pumps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katarzyna Krupa

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We experimentally study four-wave mixing in highly nonlinear fibers using two independent and partially coherent laser pumps and a third coherent signal. We focus our attention on the Bragg-scattering frequency conversion. The two pumps were obtained by amplifying two Intracavity frequency-shifted feedback lasers working in a continuous wave regime.

Sea level oscillations over minute timescales: a global perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Vilibic, Ivica; Sepic, Jadranka

2016-04-01

Sea level oscillations occurring over minutes to a few hours are an important contributor to sea level extremes, and a knowledge on their behaviour is essential for proper quantification of coastal marine hazards. Tsunamis, meteotsunamis, infra-gravity waves and harbour oscillations may even dominate sea level extremes in certain areas and thus pose a great danger for humans and coastal infrastructure. Aside for tsunamis, which are, due to their enormous impact to the coastlines, a well-researched phenomena, the importance of other high-frequency oscillations to the sea level extremes is still underrated, as no systematic long-term measurements have been carried out at a minute timescales. Recently, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) established Sea Level Monitoring Facility portal (http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org), making 1-min sea level data publicly available for several hundred tide gauge sites in the World Ocean. Thereafter, a global assessment of oscillations over tsunami timescales become possible; however, the portal contains raw sea level data only, being unchecked for spikes, shifts, drifts and other malfunctions of instruments. We present a quality assessment of these data, estimates of sea level variances and contributions of high-frequency processes to the extremes throughout the World Ocean. This is accompanied with assessment of atmospheric conditions and processes which generate intense high-frequency oscillations.

The dynamics of biogeographic ranges in the deep sea.

Science.gov (United States)

McClain, Craig R; Hardy, Sarah Mincks

2010-12-07

Anthropogenic disturbances such as fishing, mining, oil drilling, bioprospecting, warming, and acidification in the deep sea are increasing, yet generalities about deep-sea biogeography remain elusive. Owing to the lack of perceived environmental variability and geographical barriers, ranges of deep-sea species were traditionally assumed to be exceedingly large. In contrast, seamount and chemosynthetic habitats with reported high endemicity challenge the broad applicability of a single biogeographic paradigm for the deep sea. New research benefiting from higher resolution sampling, molecular methods and public databases can now more rigorously examine dispersal distances and species ranges on the vast ocean floor. Here, we explore the major outstanding questions in deep-sea biogeography. Based on current evidence, many taxa appear broadly distributed across the deep sea, a pattern replicated in both the abyssal plains and specialized environments such as hydrothermal vents. Cold waters may slow larval metabolism and development augmenting the great intrinsic ability for dispersal among many deep-sea species. Currents, environmental shifts, and topography can prove to be dispersal barriers but are often semipermeable. Evidence of historical events such as points of faunal origin and climatic fluctuations are also evident in contemporary biogeographic ranges. Continued synthetic analysis, database construction, theoretical advancement and field sampling will be required to further refine hypotheses regarding deep-sea biogeography.

From Drug Safety to Drug Security: A Contemporary Shift in the Policing of Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Hornberger, Julia

2018-01-29

The counterfeiting of medication is increasingly seen as a major threat to health, especially in the light of both the everyday reliance on and a broadening of world-wide access to pharmaceuticals. Exaggerated or real, this threat has inaugurated, this article argues, a shift from a drug safety regime to a drug security regime that governs the flow of pharmaceuticals and brings together markets, police, and health actors in new ways. This entails a shift from soft disciplinary means aimed at incremental and continued inclusion of defaulters, to one of drastically sovereign measures of exclusion and banishment aimed at fake goods and the people associated with them, in the name of health. Through a multi-sited ethnographic study, this article shows how such new drug security efforts play themselves out especially in (South) Africa, highlighting a modus operandi of spectacular performativity and of working through suspicion and association rather than factuality, producing value less so for those in need of health than for a petty security industry itself. © 2018 by the American Anthropological Association.

Links between the recruitment success of northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius L.) and a regime shift on the NE Atlantic continental shelf

KAUST Repository

Goikoetxea, Nerea; Irigoien, Xabier

2013-01-01

variables in the North Sea also affected the Northeast Atlantic shelf oceanography. Hake recruitment success as well as parameters such as the sea surface temperature, wind patterns and copepod abundance changed significantly at the end of the 1980s

High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Field, Christopher R; Bayard, Trina S; Gjerdrum, Carina; Hill, Jason M; Meiman, Susan; Elphick, Chris S

2017-05-01

Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Regime change?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pilat, Joseph F.; Budlong-Sylvester, K.W.

2004-01-01

Following the 1998 nuclear tests in South Asia and later reinforced by revelations about North Korean and Iraqi nuclear activities, there has been growing concern about increasing proliferation dangers. At the same time, the prospects of radiological/nuclear terrorism are seen to be rising - since 9/11, concern over a proliferation/terrorism nexus has never been higher. In the face of this growing danger, there are urgent calls for stronger measures to strengthen the current international nuclear nonproliferation regime, including recommendations to place civilian processing of weapon-useable material under multinational control. As well, there are calls for entirely new tools, including military options. As proliferation and terrorism concerns grow, the regime is under pressure and there is a temptation to consider fundamental changes to the regime. In this context, this paper will address the following: Do we need to change the regime centered on the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)? What improvements could ensure it will be the foundation for the proliferation resistance and physical protection needed if nuclear power grows? What will make it a viable centerpiece of future nonproliferation and counterterrorism approaches?

Mean sea level and change in the hydrological regime off Loviisa power plant around the year 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maelkki, P.; Voipio, A.

1985-03-01

On the request of Imatran Voima Oy, the Institute of Marine Research has made an estimate on the future sea level off Loviisa Power Plant. The estimate is based on observationsof mean sea level in the Gulf of Finland. The stations used are Helsinki (observations since 1904) and Hamina (observations since 1928). A litterature review was made in order to estimate impact of climate change on environmental conditions. The results presented are mainly based on various estimates of meterorological Global Circulation Models (GCM). Their usefulness in the connection is briefly discussed

Position-dependent energy-level shifts of an accelerated atom in the presence of a boundary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu Zhiying; Yu Hongwei

2010-01-01

We consider a uniformly accelerated atom interacting with a vacuum electromagnetic field in the presence of an infinite conducting plane boundary and calculate separately the contributions of vacuum fluctuations and radiation reaction to the atomic energy-level shift. We analyze in detail the behavior of the total energy shift in three different regimes of the distance in both the low-acceleration and high-acceleration limits. Our results show that, in general, an accelerated atom does not behave as if immersed in a thermal bath at the Unruh temperature in terms of the atomic energy-level shifts, and the effect of the acceleration on the atomic energy-level shifts may in principle become appreciable in certain circumstances, although it may not be realistic for actual experimental measurements. We also examine the effects of the acceleration on the level shifts when the acceleration is of the order of the transition frequency of the atom and we find some features which differ from what was obtained in the existing literature.

Fire regime: history and definition of a key concept in disturbance ecology.

Science.gov (United States)

Krebs, Patrik; Pezzatti, Gianni B; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Talbot, Lee M; Conedera, Marco

2010-06-01

"Fire regime" has become, in recent decades, a key concept in many scientific domains. In spite of its wide spread use, the concept still lacks a clear and wide established definition. Many believe that it was first discussed in a famous report on national park management in the United States, and that it may be simply defined as a selection of a few measurable parameters that summarize the fire occurrence patterns in an area. This view has been uncritically perpetuated in the scientific community in the last decades. In this paper we attempt a historical reconstruction of the origin, the evolution and the current meaning of "fire regime" as a concept. Its roots go back to the 19th century in France and to the first half of the 20th century in French African colonies. The "fire regime" concept took time to evolve and pass from French into English usage and thus to the whole scientific community. This coincided with a paradigm shift in the early 1960s in the United States, where a favourable cultural, social and scientific climate led to the natural role of fires as a major disturbance in ecosystem dynamics becoming fully acknowledged. Today the concept of "fire regime" refers to a collection of several fire-related parameters that may be organized, assembled and used in different ways according to the needs of the users. A structure for the most relevant categories of parameters is proposed, aiming to contribute to a unified concept of "fire regime" that can reconcile the physical nature of fire with the socio-ecological context within which it occurs.

Coordinated Mapping of Sea Ice Deformation Features with Autonomous Vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Maksym, T.; Williams, G. D.; Singh, H.; Weissling, B.; Anderson, J.; Maki, T.; Ackley, S. F.

2016-12-01

Decreases in summer sea ice extent in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas has lead to a transition from a largely perennial ice cover, to a seasonal ice cover. This drives shifts in sea ice production, dynamics, ice types, and thickness distribution. To examine how the processes driving ice advance might also impact the morphology of the ice cover, a coordinated ice mapping effort was undertaken during a field campaign in the Beaufort Sea in October, 2015. Here, we present observations of sea ice draft topography from six missions of an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle run under different ice types and deformation features observed during autumn freeze-up. Ice surface features were also mapped during coordinated drone photogrammetric missions over each site. We present preliminary results of a comparison between sea ice surface topography and ice underside morphology for a range of sample ice types, including hummocked multiyear ice, rubble fields, young ice ridges and rafts, and consolidated pancake ice. These data are compared to prior observations of ice morphological features from deformed Antarctic sea ice. Such data will be useful for improving parameterizations of sea ice redistribution during deformation, and for better constraining estimates of airborne or satellite sea ice thickness.

Causas estruturais e consequências dos regimes internacionais: regimes como variáveis intervenientes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen D. Krasner

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Os regimes internacionais são definidos como princípios, normas, regras e procedimentos de tomada de decisões ao redor dos quais as expectativas dos atores convergem em uma dada área-tema. Como ponto de partida, os regimes são conceituados como variáveis intervenientes, estando entre fatores causais básicos e os resultados e comportamentos relacionados. Há três visões a respeito da importância dos regimes: as orientações estruturais convencionais desvalorizam os regimes como sendo, na melhor das hipóteses, ineficazes; as orientações grocianas vêem os regimes como componentes íntimos do sistema internacional; as perspectivas estruturalistas modificadas vêem os regimes como significativos somente em certas condições restritas. Para os argumentos grociano e estruturalista modificado - que concordam com a visão de que os regimes podem influenciar resultados e comportamentos - , o desenvolvimento de regimes é visto como uma função de cinco variáveis causais básicas: auto-interesse egoísta; poder político; normas e princípios difusos; usos e costumes; conhecimento.

Field Observations of Coastal Air-Sea Interaction

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz-Suslow, D. G.; Haus, B. K.; Williams, N. J.; Graber, H. C.

2016-12-01

In the nearshore zone wind, waves, and currents generated from different forcing mechanisms converge in shallow water. This can profoundly affect the physical nature of the ocean surface, which can significantly modulate the exchange of momentum, heat, and mass across the air-sea interface. For decades, the focus of air-sea interaction research has been on the open ocean while the shallow water regime has been relatively under-explored. This bears implications for efforts to understand and model various coastal processes, such as mixing, surface transport, and air-sea gas flux. The results from a recent study conducted at the New River Inlet in North Carolina showed that directly measured air-sea flux parameters, such as the atmospheric drag coefficient, are strong functions of space as well as the ambient conditions (i.e. wind speed and direction). The drag is typically used to parameterize the wind stress magnitude. It is generally assumed that the wind direction is the direction of the atmospheric forcing (i.e. wind stress), however significant wind stress steering off of the azimuthal wind direction was observed and was found to be related to the horizontal surface current shear. The authors have just returned from a field campaign carried out within Monterey Bay in California. Surface observations made from two research vessels were complimented by an array of beach and inland flux stations, high-resolution wind forecasts, and satellite image acquisitions. This is a rich data set and several case studies will be analyzed to highlight the importance of various processes for understanding the air-sea fluxes. Preliminary findings show that interactions between the local wind-sea and the shoaling, incident swell can have a profound effect on the wind stress magnitude. The Monterey Bay coastline contains a variety of topographical features and the importance of land-air-sea interactions will also be investigated.

A cavity-Cooper pair transistor scheme for investigating quantum optomechanics in the ultra-strong coupling regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimberg, A J; Blencowe, M P; Armour, A D; Nation, P D

2014-01-01

We propose a scheme involving a Cooper pair transistor (CPT) embedded in a superconducting microwave cavity, where the CPT serves as a charge tunable quantum inductor to facilitate ultra-strong coupling between photons in the cavity and a nano- to meso-scale mechanical resonator. The mechanical resonator is capacitively coupled to the CPT, such that mechanical displacements of the resonator cause a shift in the CPT inductance and hence the cavity's resonant frequency. The amplification provided by the CPT is sufficient for the zero point motion of the mechanical resonator alone to cause a significant change in the cavity resonance. Conversely, a single photon in the cavity causes a shift in the mechanical resonator position on the order of its zero point motion. As a result, the cavity-Cooper pair transistor coupled to a mechanical resonator will be able to access a regime in which single photons can affect single phonons and vice versa. Realizing this ultra-strong coupling regime will facilitate the creation of non-classical states of the mechanical resonator, as well as the means to accurately characterize such states by measuring the cavity photon field. (paper)

A critique of the historical-fire-regime concept in conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, Johanna; Kobziar, Leda; Rose, Elizabeth White; Cropper, Wendell

2017-10-01

Prescribed fire is widely accepted as a conservation tool because fire is essential to the maintenance of native biodiversity in many terrestrial communities. Approaches to this land-management technique vary greatly among continents, and sharing knowledge internationally can inform application of prescribed fire worldwide. In North America, decisions about how and when to apply prescribed fire are typically based on the historical-fire-regime concept (HFRC), which holds that replicating the pattern of fires ignited by lightning or preindustrial humans best promotes native species in fire-prone regions. The HFRC rests on 3 assumptions: it is possible to infer historical fire regimes accurately; fire-suppressed communities are ecologically degraded; and reinstating historical fire regimes is the best course of action despite the global shift toward novel abiotic and biotic conditions. We examined the underpinnings of these assumptions by conducting a literature review on the use of historical fire regimes to inform the application of prescribed fire. We found that the practice of inferring historical fire regimes for entire regions or ecosystems often entails substantial uncertainty and can yield equivocal results; ecological outcomes of fire suppression are complex and may not equate to degradation, depending on the ecosystem and context; and habitat fragmentation, invasive species, and other modern factors can interact with fire to produce novel and in some cases negative ecological outcomes. It is therefore unlikely that all 3 assumptions will be fully upheld for any landscape in which prescribed fire is being applied. Although the HFRC is a valuable starting point, it should not be viewed as the sole basis for developing prescribed fire programs. Rather, fire prescriptions should also account for other specific, measurable ecological parameters on a case-by-case basis. To best achieve conservation goals, researchers should seek to understand contemporary fire

Observations and Modeling of Turbulent Air-Sea Coupling in Coastal and Strongly Forced Condition

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz-Suslow, David G.

The turbulent fluxes of momentum, mass, and energy across the ocean-atmosphere boundary are fundamental to our understanding of a myriad of geophysical processes, such as wind-wave generation, oceanic circulation, and air-sea gas transfer. In order to better understand these fluxes, empirical relationships were developed to quantify the interfacial exchange rates in terms of easily observed parameters (e.g., wind speed). However, mounting evidence suggests that these empirical formulae are only valid over the relatively narrow parametric space, i.e. open ocean conditions in light to moderate winds. Several near-surface processes have been observed to cause significant variance in the air-sea fluxes not predicted by the conventional functions, such as a heterogeneous surfaces, swell waves, and wave breaking. Further study is needed to fully characterize how these types of processes can modulate the interfacial exchange; in order to achieve this, a broad investigation into air-sea coupling was undertaken. The primary focus of this work was to use a combination of field and laboratory observations and numerical modeling, in regimes where conventional theories would be expected to breakdown, namely: the nearshore and in very high winds. These seemingly disparate environments represent the marine atmospheric boundary layer at its physical limit. In the nearshore, the convergence of land, air, and sea in a depth-limited domain marks the transition from a marine to a terrestrial boundary layer. Under extreme winds, the physical nature of the boundary layer remains unknown as an intermediate substrate layer, sea spray, develops between the atmosphere and ocean surface. At these ends of the MABL physical spectrum, direct measurements of the near-surface processes were made and directly related to local sources of variance. Our results suggest that the conventional treatment of air-sea fluxes in terms of empirical relationships developed from a relatively narrow set of

Postglacial sedimentary regime around northern Sylt, South-eastern North Sea, based on shallow seismic evidence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boldreel, Lars Ole; Kuijpers, Antoon; Madsen, Emil B

2010-01-01

, in the outer delta, a dune field suggesting westerly-directed sediment transport is identified. The two dune fields appear to be separated by minor indefinite bed forms. The northern part of the Lister Tief is characterised by the presence of a channel with a depth of 20-30 mbsf (meter below sea level) (30......-40 msec TWT (Two Way Traveltime)) and displaying erosion towards the north. At the western termination of the channel the sediment transport pathway appears to be divided into two directions; one towards the outer delta, and one towards the sediment depocenter SW of Rømø. The Lister Ley is characterized......During the past 5 years the coastal zone offshore the northern part of the island of Sylt, has been investigated by sparker seismics and high-resolution subbottom profiling. The North Sea sector of the area is characterized by northward-directed sediment bypass as a result of strong long...

Detailed Sea Level Record from Barbados Spanning 13,000 to 11,000 Years Before Present

Science.gov (United States)

Abdul, N. A.; Mortlock, R. A.; Wright, J. D.; Fairbanks, R. G.

2013-12-01

Th/U dated reef-crest corals (Acropora palmata) obtained from new Barbados offshore drill cores provide a local sea level reconstruction in unprecedented detail. The time interval, 13,000 to 11,000 years before present (BP), spans the well-studied Younger Dryas pollen zone, a period that has given rise to more than three decades of sensational climate interpretations and popular press. Widely described as a time when Earth's climate reverted to "glacial-like conditions" the various hypotheses that attempt to explain the "cause" of the Younger Dryas climate event have their staunch supporters as well as their critics but there remains little consensus. The Barbados sea level record for this time interval shows that sea level continued to rise during the Younger Dryas, albeit at a slower rate than prior to 13,000 or following 11,000 years BP. The decrease in the rate of sea level rise can simply be explained by the slow expansion of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet beginning 12,800 years BP followed by its faster demise contributing to a period of rapid sea level increase known as Melt Water Pulse 1B. We calculate the ice volume history of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet and it compares favorably to the moraine history and ice models. The Younger Dryas climate event is most often defined by the rapid shifts in atmospheric proxies measured in ice cores from Greenland. The ice core proxies shift into and out of the Younger Dryas climate event in only a few years to a few decades. Abrupt shifts in the climate state associated with the onset and termination of the Younger Dryas as revealed in Greenland Ice cores are not expressed in the smooth Barbados deglacial sea level record. We make the case that these Greenland atmospheric records mark regional atmospheric frontal shifts and changes in air mass sources over an ice sheet that largely did not participate in the deglaciation or sea level change. As proposed decades ago, the warming of the North Atlantic between 14,000 and 13

Rising sea levels and small island states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leatherman, S.P.

1994-01-01

A review is given of the problems small island nations face with respect to sea level rise caused by global warming. Many small island nations are very vulnerable to sea level rise. Particularly at risk are coral reef atolls, which are generally quite small, lie within three metres of current sea levels, and have no land at higher elevations to relocate populations and economic activity. Volcanic islands in the Pacific have high ground, but it is largely rugged, high relief and soil-poor. The most vulnerable islands are those that consist entirely of atolls and reef islands, such as Kirabai, Maldives, Tokelau and Tuvalu. Small island states, which by themselves have little power or influence in world affairs, have banded together to form the Strategic Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). This alliance had grown to include 42 states by the time of the 1992 U.N. Earth Summit. Although the greenhouse effect is mainly caused by industrial nations, developing countries will suffer the most from it. Choices of response strategy will depend on environmental, economic and social factors. Most small island nations do not have the resources to fight sea level rise in the way that the Dutch have. Retreat can occur as a gradual process or as catastrophic abandonment. Prohibiting construction close to the water's edge is a good approach. Sea level histories for each island state should be compiled and updated, island geomorphology and settlement patterns should be surveyed to determine risk areas, storm regimes should be determined, and information on coastal impacts of sea level rise should be disseminated to the public

Coherent detection of THz-induced sideband emission from excitons in the nonperturbative regime

Science.gov (United States)

Uchida, K.; Otobe, T.; Mochizuki, T.; Kim, C.; Yoshita, M.; Tanaka, K.; Akiyama, H.; Pfeiffer, L. N.; West, K. W.; Hirori, H.

2018-04-01

Strong interaction of a terahertz (THz) wave with excitons induces nonperturbative optical effects such as Rabi splitting and high-order sideband generation. Here, we investigated coherent properties of THz-induced sideband emissions from GaAs/AlGaAs multiquantum wells. With increasing THz electric field, optical susceptibility of the THz-dressed exciton shows a redshift with spectral broadening and extraordinary phase shift. This implies that the field ionization of the 1 s exciton modifies the THz-dressed exciton in the nonperturbative regime.

Tidal marsh plant responses to elevated CO2 , nitrogen fertilization, and sea level rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Adam Langley, J; Mozdzer, Thomas J; Shepard, Katherine A; Hagerty, Shannon B; Patrick Megonigal, J

2013-05-01

Elevated CO2 and nitrogen (N) addition directly affect plant productivity and the mechanisms that allow tidal marshes to maintain a constant elevation relative to sea level, but it remains unknown how these global change drivers modify marsh plant response to sea level rise. Here we manipulated factorial combinations of CO2 concentration (two levels), N availability (two levels) and relative sea level (six levels) using in situ mesocosms containing a tidal marsh community composed of a sedge, Schoenoplectus americanus, and a grass, Spartina patens. Our objective is to determine, if elevated CO2 and N alter the growth and persistence of these plants in coastal ecosystems facing rising sea levels. After two growing seasons, we found that N addition enhanced plant growth particularly at sea levels where plants were most stressed by flooding (114% stimulation in the + 10 cm treatment), and N effects were generally larger in combination with elevated CO2 (288% stimulation). N fertilization shifted the optimal productivity of S. patens to a higher sea level, but did not confer S. patens an enhanced ability to tolerate sea level rise. S. americanus responded strongly to N only in the higher sea level treatments that excluded S. patens. Interestingly, addition of N, which has been suggested to accelerate marsh loss, may afford some marsh plants, such as the widespread sedge, S. americanus, the enhanced ability to tolerate inundation. However, if chronic N pollution reduces the availability of propagules of S. americanus or other flood-tolerant species on the landscape scale, this shift in species dominance could render tidal marshes more susceptible to marsh collapse. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Corresponding long-term shifts in stream temperature and invasive fish migration

Science.gov (United States)

McCann, Erin L.; Johnson, Nicholas; Pangle, Kevin

2018-01-01

By investigating historic trapping records of invasive sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) throughout tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes, we found that upstream spawning migration timing was highly correlated with stream temperatures over large spatial and temporal scales. Furthermore, several streams in our study exceeded a critical spring thermal threshold (i.e., 15°C) and experienced peak spawning migration up to 30 days earlier since the 1980s, whereas others were relatively unchanged. Streams exhibiting warming trends and earlier migration were spatially clustered and generally found on the leeward side of the Great Lakes where the lakes most affect local climate. These findings highlight that all streams are not equally impacted by climate change and represent, to our knowledge, the first observation linking long-term changes in stream temperatures to shifts in migration timing of an invasive fish. Earlier sea lamprey migration in Great Lakes tributaries may improve young of the year growth and survival, but not limit their spatial distribution, making sea lamprey control more challenging.

Exciton diamagnetic shift and optical properties in CdSe nanocrystal quantum dots in magnetic fields

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Shudong; Cheng, Liwen

2018-04-01

The magnetic field dependence of the optical properties of CdSe nanocrystal quantum dots (NQDs) is investigated theoretically using a perturbation method within the effective-mass approximation. The results show that the magnetic field lifts the degeneracy of the electron (hole) states. A blue-shift in the absorption spectra of m ≥ 0 exciton states is observed while the absorption peak of m attributed to the interplay of the orbital Zeeman effect and the additive confinement induced by the magnetic field. The excitonic absorption coefficient is almost independent of B in the strong confinement regime. The applied magnetic field causes the splitting of degenerated exciton states, resulting in the new absorption peaks. Based on the first-order perturbation theory, we propose the analytical expressions for the exciton binding energy, exciton transition energy and exciton diamagnetic shift of 1s, 1p-1, 1p0, 1p1, 1d-2, 1d-1, 1d0, 1d1, 1d2 and 2s exciton states on the applied magnetic field in the strong confinement regime.

Nonlinear ion-mixing-mode particle transport in the dissipative trapped electron regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ware, A.S.; Terry, P.W.

1993-09-01

The nonlinear particle transport arising from the convection of nonadiabatic electron density by ion temperature gradient driven turbulence is examined for trapped electron collisionality regimes. The renormalized dissipative nonadiabatic trapped electron phase space density response is derived and used to calculate the nonlinear particle flux along with an ansatz for the turbulently broadened frequency spectrum. In the lower temperature end of this regime, trapped electrons are collisional and all components of the quasilinear particle flux are outward (i.e., in the direction of the gradients). Nonlinear effects can alter the phase between the nonadiabatic trapped electron phase space density and the electrostatic potential, producing inward components in the particle flux. Specifically, both turbulent shifting of the peak of the frequency spectrum and nonlinear source terms in the trapped electron response can give rise to inward components. However, in the dissipative regime these terms are small and the trapped electron response remains dominantly laminar. When the trapped electrons are collisionless, there is a temperature threshold above which the electron temperature gradient driven component of the quasilinear particle flux changes sign and becomes inward. For finite amplitude turbulence, however, turbulent broadening of both the electron collisional resonance and the frequency spectrum removes tills threshold., and the temperature gradient driven component remains outward

Development of Oil Spill Monitoring System for the Black Sea, Caspian Sea and the Barents/Kara Seas (DEMOSS)

Science.gov (United States)

Sandven, Stein; Kudriavtsev, Vladimir; Malinovsky, Vladimir; Stanovoy, Vladimir

2008-01-01

DEMOSS will develop and demonstrate elements of a marine oil spill detection and prediction system based on satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and other space data. In addition, models for prediction of sea surface pollution drift will be developed and tested. The project implements field experiments to study the effect of artificial crude oil and oil derivatives films on short wind waves and multi-frequency (Ka-, Ku-, X-, and C-band) dual polarization radar backscatter power and Doppler shift at different wind and wave conditions. On the basis of these and other available experimental data, the present model of short wind waves and radar scattering will be improved and tested.A new approach for detection and quantification of the oil slicks/spills in satellite SAR images is developed that can discriminate human oil spills from biogenic slicks and look-alikes in the SAR images. New SAR images are obtained in coordination with the field experiments to test the detection algorithm. Satellite SAR images from archives as well as from new acquisitions will be analyzed for the Black/Caspian/Kara/Barents seas to investigate oil slicks/spills occurrence statistics.A model for oil spills/slicks transport and evolution is developed and tested in ice-infested arctic seas, including the Caspian Sea. Case studies using the model will be conducted to simulate drift and evolution of oil spill events observed in SAR images. The results of the project will be disseminated via scientific publications and by demonstration to users and agencies working with marine monitoring. The project lasts for two years (2007 - 2009) and is funded under INTAS Thematic Call with ESA 2006.

On the regional characteristics of past and future sea-level change (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Timmermann, A.; McGregor, S.

2010-12-01

Global sea-level rise due to the thermal expansion of the warming oceans and freshwater input from melting glaciers and ice-sheets is threatening to inundate low-lying islands and coast-lines worldwide. At present global mean sea level rises at 3.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr with an accelerating tendency. However, the magnitude of recent decadal sea-level trends varies greatly spatially attaining values of up to 10 mm/yr in some areas of the western tropical Pacific. Identifying the causes of recent regional sea-level trends and understanding the patterns of future projected sea-level change is of crucial importance. Using a wind-forced simplified dynamical ocean model, we show that the regional features of recent decadal and multidecadal sea-level trends in the tropical Indo-Pacific can be attributed to changes in the prevailing wind-regimes. Furthermore it is demonstrated that within an ensemble of ten state-of-the art coupled general circulation models, forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the next century, wind-induced re-distributions of upper-ocean water play a key role in establishing the spatial characteristics of projected regional sea-level rise. Wind-related changes in near- surface mass and heat convergence near the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia oppose, but can not cancel the regional signal of global mean sea-level rise.

Analytic description of Raman-induced frequency shift in the case of non-soliton ultrashort pulses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bugay, Aleksandr N., E-mail: bugay_aleksandr@mail.ru [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Joliot-Curie 6, 141980, Dubna, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Khalyapin, Vyacheslav A., E-mail: slavasxi@gmail.com [Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, Kaliningrad, 236041 (Russian Federation); Kaliningrad State Technical University, Kaliningrad, 236000 (Russian Federation)

2017-01-30

Raman-induced frequency shift of ultrashort pulses have been studied extensively for the soliton propagation regime. Here we derive explicit analytic expressions for the evolution of Raman-induced frequency shift in much less studied case of non-soliton ultrashort pulses. Pulse spectra may belong to any region of group velocity dispersion including zero group dispersion point. The analysis is based on the moment method. Obtained expressions fit well to the numerical solution of the nonlinear wave equation. - Highlights: • Explicit analytic formulas for the evolution of Raman-induced frequency shift are derived in the case of non-soliton pulses. • Dynamics of non-soliton ultrashort pulses in the cases of positive and zero group dispersion is considered. • The deceleration and the saturation of Raman-induced frequency shift are analyzed. • The calculation relies on the moment method and fit well to the numerical solution of the nonlinear wave equation.

Analytic description of Raman-induced frequency shift in the case of non-soliton ultrashort pulses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bugay, Aleksandr N.; Khalyapin, Vyacheslav A.

2017-01-01

Raman-induced frequency shift of ultrashort pulses have been studied extensively for the soliton propagation regime. Here we derive explicit analytic expressions for the evolution of Raman-induced frequency shift in much less studied case of non-soliton ultrashort pulses. Pulse spectra may belong to any region of group velocity dispersion including zero group dispersion point. The analysis is based on the moment method. Obtained expressions fit well to the numerical solution of the nonlinear wave equation. - Highlights: • Explicit analytic formulas for the evolution of Raman-induced frequency shift are derived in the case of non-soliton pulses. • Dynamics of non-soliton ultrashort pulses in the cases of positive and zero group dispersion is considered. • The deceleration and the saturation of Raman-induced frequency shift are analyzed. • The calculation relies on the moment method and fit well to the numerical solution of the nonlinear wave equation.

New trends of activity on supporting of non-proliferation regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Issaeva, G.M.; Tyupkina, O.G.

2002-01-01

Taking into account the necessity of all possible strengthening of non-proliferation regimes Kazakhstan participates in a number of agreements and associations: Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, Comprehensive Test-Ban-Treaty, International Atomic Energy Agency, Nuclear Supplier Group, Missile Technology Control Regime, Conference on Disarmament, etc. The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program (CTR) greatly influenced on the development on non-proliferation regime in Kazakhstan. During initial stage of CTR activity (1993-1995) military projects prevailed. Later (1995-1997) the projects on liquidation of infrastructure for nuclear and bio- weapons were successfully realized. Last years, since 1999, the attention was shifted towards proliferation prevention of hazardous nuclear and biological materials. Recent terrorist acts and world community activity on global safety strengthening underline an urgency of quite new problems that entirely applied to Kazakhstan: monitoring of hazardous materials; enhancement of safety systems of 'risky' facilities and technologies; creation and/or upgrading of safety systems for industry infrastructure. The proposals of these new trends of non-proliferation have been developed. Development of physical protection system for oil and gas industry infrastructure of Kazakhstan based on safety concepts of nuclear facilities; Evaluation of radionuclide contamination and safety of oil and gas facilities of the Caspian region; Counteraction to nuclear materials proliferation; Cooperative approaches in preventing/reducing of illicit trafficking and use of WMD-related explosive materials. Implementation of the project would make of substantial contribution to successful solution of either regional or global safety problem

H-mode regimes and observators of central toroidal rotation in Alcator C-Mod

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greenwald, M.; Rice, J.; Boivin, R.

1999-01-01

The Enhanced D α or EDA H-mode regime in Alcator C-Mod has been investigated and compared in detail to ELM-free plasmas. (In this paper, ELM-free will refer to discharges with no type I ELMs and with no sign of EDA, though technically, most EDA plasmas are ELM-free as well.) EDA discharges have only slightly lower energy confinement than comparable ELM-free ones, but show markedly reduced impurity confinement. Thus EDA discharges do not accumulate impurities and typically have a lower fraction of radiated power. EDA plasmas are seen to be more likely at low plasma current (q > 3.7 - 4), for moderate plasma shaping (0.35 - 0.55), and for high neutral pressures. No obvious trends were observed with input power or pressure (β). In both H-mode regimes, and in ICRF heated L-modes, central impurity toroidal rotation has been deduced, from the Doppler shifts of argon x-ray lines. Rotation velocities up to 1.3 x 10 5 m/s in the co-current direction have been observed in H-mode discharges that had no direct momentum input. There is a strong correlation between the increase in the central impurity rotation velocity and the increase in the plasma stored energy, induced by ICRF heating. In otherwise similar discharges with the same stored energy increase, plasmas with lower current rotate faster. The ion pressure gradient is an unimportant contributor to the central impurity rotation and the presence of a substantial core radial electric field is inferred during the ICRF pulse. An inward shift of ions induced by ICRF waves could give rise to a non-ambipolar electric field in the plasma core. Comparisons with a neo-classical ion orbit shift model show good agreement with the observations, both in magnitude, and in the scaling with plasma current. (author)

A Modeling Approach for Evaluating the Coupled Riparian Vegetation-Geomorphic Response to Altered Flow Regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Manners, R.; Wilcox, A. C.; Merritt, D. M.

2016-12-01

The ecogeomorphic response of riparian ecosystems to a change in hydrologic properties is difficult to predict because of the interactions and feedbacks among plants, water, and sediment. Most riparian models of community dynamics assume a static channel, yet geomorphic processes strongly control the establishment and survival of riparian vegetation. Using a combination of approaches that includes empirical relationships and hydrodynamic models, we model the coupled vegetation-topographic response of three cross-sections on the Yampa and Green Rivers in Dinosaur National Monument, to a shift in the flow regime. The locations represent the variable geomorphology and vegetation composition of these canyon-bound rivers. We account for the inundation and hydraulic properties of vegetation plots surveyed over three years within International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) Fastmech, equipped with a vegetation module that accounts for flexible stems and plant reconfiguration. The presence of functional groupings of plants, or those plants that respond similarly to environmental factors such as water availability and disturbance are determined from flow response curves developed for the Yampa River. Using field measurements of vegetation morphology, distance from the channel centerline, and dominant particle size and modeled inundation properties we develop an empirical relationship between these variables and topographic change. We evaluate vegetation and channel form changes over decadal timescales, allowing for the integration of processes over time. From our analyses, we identify thresholds in the flow regime that alter the distribution of plants and reduce geomorphic complexity, predominately through side-channel and backwater infilling. Simplification of some processes (e.g., empirically-derived sedimentation) and detailed treatment of others (e.g., plant-flow interactions) allows us to model the coupled dynamics of riparian ecosystems and evaluate the impact of

Governance regime and location influence avoided deforestation success of protected areas in the Brazilian Amazon.

Science.gov (United States)

Nolte, Christoph; Agrawal, Arun; Silvius, Kirsten M; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S

2013-03-26

Protected areas in tropical countries are managed under different governance regimes, the relative effectiveness of which in avoiding deforestation has been the subject of recent debates. Participants in these debates answer appeals for more strict protection with the argument that sustainable use areas and indigenous lands can balance deforestation pressures by leveraging local support to create and enforce protective regulations. Which protection strategy is more effective can also depend on (i) the level of deforestation pressures to which an area is exposed and (ii) the intensity of government enforcement. We examine this relationship empirically, using data from 292 protected areas in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that, for any given level of deforestation pressure, strictly protected areas consistently avoided more deforestation than sustainable use areas. Indigenous lands were particularly effective at avoiding deforestation in locations with high deforestation pressure. Findings were stable across two time periods featuring major shifts in the intensity of government enforcement. We also observed shifting trends in the location of protected areas, documenting that between 2000 and 2005 strictly protected areas were more likely to be established in high-pressure locations than in sustainable use areas and indigenous lands. Our findings confirm that all protection regimes helped reduce deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

Revamp urged for Norway's offshore regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1991-01-01

This paper reports that the Norwegian government has come under renewed pressure from offshore operators to fine tune its licensing procedures and tax regime. The need for change was emphasized at the Advanced Petroleum Conference in Stavanger attended by senior personnel from companies active in the Norwegian and British sectors of the North Sea. Companies have had some success in the tax front, winning changes in proposals from Norway's Ministry of Finance for offshore tax reform. The changes were required to offset a general reduction in the corporate tax to 28% from 50.8%. Norsk Shell has told the government that in view of uncertainty about taxes it will not take part in the normal industry-government discussions about what acreage should be included in the 14th licensing round to be announced next year. This action does not bar Shell from participating in the licensing round when it gets under way. Shell has the if the tax package is not changed sharply in its passage through Storting it is unlikely to bid for new licenses

Exchange rate regimes and monetary arrangements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan Ribnikar

2005-06-01

Full Text Available There is a close relationship between a country’s exchange rate regime and monetary arrangement and if we are to examine monetary arrangements then exchange rate regimes must first be analysed. Within the conventional and most widely used classification of exchange rate regimes into rigid and flexible or into polar regimes (hard peg and float on one side, and intermediate regimes on the other there, is a much greater variety among intermediate regimes. A more precise and, as will be seen, more useful classification of exchange rate regimes is the first topic of the paper. The second topic is how exchange rate regimes influence or determine monetary arrangements and monetary policy or monetary policy regimes: monetary autonomy versus monetary nonautonomy and discretion in monetary policy versus commitment in monetary policy. Both topics are important for countries on their path to the EU and the euro area

The Caspian Sea Negotiation Support System 2.0

Science.gov (United States)

Rouhani, O. M.; Madani, K.

2012-12-01

The Caspian Sea is one of the most resourceful (both in energy and biological resources) areas of the world. The share allocation of Caspian Sea has been the subject of many disputes. Up to now, the negotiations to reach an agreement regarding the ownership status of the sea have not been completely successful. To facilitate reaching an agreement among littoral countries, research studies can provide valuable information. Researchers should examine different options for dividing the sea closely and determine the benefits of each of the options for the parties involved. Following an earlier effort, Caspian Sea Negotiation Support System is further developed in this regard. The model estimates countries' areal and utility shares under different legal methods/scenarios, attempting to minimize transportation costs of exploiting the resource. The applied model is more efficient than the earlier model and the used data includes more variables/attributes such as depth, the differentiation between gas and oil, and various fish resources than the previously employed data. Consequently, the estimates are calculated in more details than are calculated in the earlier study. The results still show a high sensitivity of outputs to the proposed division rules, suggesting a need to clarify the countries' utility and areal shares under any suggested legal regime. Compared to the previous results, the new results confirm the significant effect of the addition of the more variables/attributes to the analysis, in terms of the areal shares and allocations, valuation of resources, and asset management.

Thermal regime of the State 2-14 well, Salton Sea Scientific Drilling Project

Science.gov (United States)

Sass, J.H.; Priest, S.S.; Duda, L.E.; Carson, C.C.; Hendricks, J.D.; Robison, L.C.

1988-01-01

Temperature logs were made repeatedly during breaks in drilling and both during and after flow tests in the Salton Sea Scientific Drilling Project well (State 2-14). The purpose of these logs was to assist in identifying zones of fluid loss or gain and to characterize reservoir temperatures. At the conclusion of the active phase of the project, a series of logs was begun in an attempt to establish the equilibrium temperature profile. Thermal gradients decrease from about 250 mK m-1 in the upper few hundred meters to just below 200 mK m-1 near the base of the conductive cap. Using one interpretation, thermal conductivities increase with depth (mainly because of decreasing porosity), resulting in component heat flows that agree reasonably well with the mean of about 450 mW m-2. This value agrees well with heat flow data from the shallow wells within the Salton Sea geothermal field. A second interpretation, in which measured temperature coefficients of quartz- and carbonate-rich rocks are used to correct thermal conductivity, results in lower mean conductivities that are roughly constant with depth and, consequently, systematically decreasing heat flux averaging about 350 mW m-2 below 300 m. This interpretation is consistent with the inference (from fluid inclusion studies) that the rocks in this part of the field were once several tens of degrees Celsius hotter than they are now. The age of this possible disturbance is estimated at a few thousand years. -from Authors

Offshore Wind Power at Rough Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Kristian Rasmus; Madsen, Erik Skov; Bilberg, Arne

2013-01-01

This study compare the current operations and maintenance issues of one offshore wind park at very rough sea conditions and two onshore wind parks. Through a detailed data analysis and case studies this study identifies how improvements have been made in maintenance of large wind turbines. Howeve......, the study has also revealed the need for new maintenance models including a shift from breakdown and preventive maintenances and towards more predictive maintenance to reduce the cost of energy for offshore wind energy installations in the future.......This study compare the current operations and maintenance issues of one offshore wind park at very rough sea conditions and two onshore wind parks. Through a detailed data analysis and case studies this study identifies how improvements have been made in maintenance of large wind turbines. However...

Insight into the SEA amide thioester equilibrium. Application to the synthesis of thioesters at neutral pH.

Science.gov (United States)

Pira, S L; El Mahdi, O; Raibaut, L; Drobecq, H; Dheur, J; Boll, E; Melnyk, O

2016-07-26

The bis(2-sulfanylethyl)amide (SEA) N,S-acyl shift thioester surrogate has found a variety of useful applications in the field of protein total synthesis. Here we present novel insights into the SEA amide/thioester equilibrium in water which is an essential step in any reaction involving the thioester surrogate properties of the SEA group. We also show that the SEA amide thioester equilibrium can be efficiently displaced at neutral pH for accessing peptide alkylthioesters, i.e. the key components of the native chemical ligation (NCL) reaction.

Investigating the Equatorial Gaps in Snowball Earth Sea Glaciers

Science.gov (United States)

Spaulding-Astudillo, F.; Ashkenazy, Y.; Tziperman, E.; Abbot, D. S.

2017-12-01

The way photosynthetic life survived the Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth events is still a matter of debate that has deep implications for planetary habitability. One option is that gaps in thick, semi-global ice coverage (sea glaciers) could be maintained at the equator by ocean-ice-atmosphere dynamics. We investigate this idea by modifying a global ocean-thick-marine-ice model developed for modeling Neoproterozoic Snowball Events to account for gaps in thick ice and interactions with atmospheric dynamics. Our hypothesis is that in the parameter regime that allows for sea glacier flow, ice flow will make gaps in the thick ice, and therefore an open ocean solution, less likely. This would suggest that oases in thick ice are a more viable survival mechanism for photosynthetic life during a Snowball Earth event.

Sea level trends in South East Asian Seas (SEAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

2014-10-01

Southeast Asian Seas (SEAS) span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The SEAS regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost two decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17 year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement in areas and at times of strong signal to noise associated decadal variability forced by low frequency variations in Pacific trade winds. The SEAS region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer time scales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past twenty years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the SEAS region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the SEAS regional sea level trends during 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the SEAS will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

Calculation of temperature distribution and rheological properties of the lithosphere along geotransect in the Red Sea region

Science.gov (United States)

Dérerová, Jana; Kohút, Igor; Radwan, Anwar H.; Bielik, Miroslav

2017-12-01

The temperature model of the lithosphere along profile passing through the Red Sea region has been derived using 2D integrated geophysical modelling method. Using the extrapolation of failure criteria, lithology and calculated temperature distribution, we have constructed the rheological model of the lithosphere in the area. We have calculated the strength distribution in the lithosphere and constructed the strength envelopes for both compressional and extensional regimes. The obtained results indicate that the strength steadily decreases from the Western desert through the Eastern desert towards the Red Sea where it reaches its minimum for both compressional and extensional regime. Maximum strength can be observed in the Western desert where the largest strength reaches values of about 250-300 MPa within the upper crust on the boundary between upper and lower crust. In the Eastern desert we observe slightly decreased strength with max values about 200-250 MPa within upper crust within 15 km with compression being dominant. These results suggest mostly rigid deformation in the region or Western and Eastern desert. In the Red Sea, the strength rapidly decreases to its minimum suggesting ductile processes as a result of higher temperatures.

7000 years of Emiliania huxleyi viruses in the Black Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Coolen, Marco J L

2011-07-22

A 7000-year record of Coccolithovirus and its host, the calcifying haptophyte Emiliania huxleyi, was reconstructed on the basis of genetic signatures preserved in sediments underlying the Black Sea. The data show that the same virus and host populations can persist for centuries. Major changes in virus and host populations occurred during early sapropel deposition, ~5600 years ago, and throughout the formation of the coccolith-bearing sediments of Unit I during the past 2500 years, when the Black Sea experienced dramatic changes in hydrologic and nutrient regimes. Unit I saw a reoccurrence of the same host genotype thousands of years later in the presence of a different subset of viruses. Historical plankton virus populations can thus be included in paleoecological and paleoenvironmental studies.

Frequency shift of the Bragg and Non-Bragg backscattering from periodic water wave

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Biyang; Li, Ke

2016-08-01

Doppler effect is used to measure the relative speed of a moving target with respect to the radar, and is also used to interpret the frequency shift of the backscattering from the ocean wave according to the water-wave phase velocity. The widely known relationship between the Doppler shift and the water-wave phase velocity was deduced from the scattering measurements data collected from actual sea surface, and has not been verified under man-made conditions. Here we show that this ob- served frequency shift of the scattering data from the Bragg and Non-Bragg water wave is not the Doppler shift corresponding to the water-wave phase velocity as commonly believed, but is the water-wave frequency and its integral multiple frequency. The power spectrum of the backscatter from the periodic water wave consists of serials discrete peaks, which is equally spaced by water wave frequency. Only when the water-wave length is the integer multiples of the Bragg wave, and the radar range resolution is infinite, does the frequency shift of the backscattering mathematically equal the Doppler shift according to the water-wave phase velocity.

Genetic diversity and connectivity remain high in eelgrass Zostera marina populations in the Wadden Sea, despite major impacts

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ferber, Steven; Stam, Wytze T.; Olsen, Jeanine L.

2008-01-01

Beginning in the 1930s, eelgrass meadows declined throughout the Wadden Sea, leaving populations susceptible to extinction through patchiness, low density and isolation. Additional anthropogenic impacts have altered current regimes, nutrients and turbidity-all of which affect eelgrass. Recent

Physical and biological characteristics of the winter-summer transition in the Central Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Zarokanellos, Nikolaos

2017-07-25

The Central Red Sea (CRS) lies between two distinct hydrographic and atmospheric regimes. In the southern Red Sea, seasonal monsoon reversal regulates the exchange of water between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. In the northern Red Sea, intermediate and occasionally deep water are formed during winter to sustain the basin\\'s overturning circulation. Highly variable mesoscale eddies and the northward flowing eastern boundary current (EBC) determine the physical and biogeochemical characteristics of the CRS. Ship-based and glider observations in the CRS between March and June 2013 capture key features of the transition from winter to summer and depict the impact of the eddy activity on the EBC flow. Less saline and relatively warmer water of Indian Ocean origin reaches the CRS via the EBC. Initially, an anticyclonic eddy with diameter of 140 km penetrating to 150m depth with maximum velocities up to 30–35 cm s prevails in the CRS. This anticyclonic eddy appears to block or at least redirect the northward flow of the EBC. Dissipation of the eddy permits the near-coastal, northward flow of the EBC and gives place to a smaller cyclonic eddy with a diameter of about 50 km penetrating to 200 m depth. By the end of May, as the northerly winds become stronger and persistent throughout the basin, characteristic of the summer southwest monsoon wind regime, the EBC, and its associated lower salinity water became less evident, replaced by the saltier surface water that characterizes the onset of the summer stratification in the CRS.

Causas estruturais e consequências dos regimes internacionais: regimes como variáveis intervenientes

OpenAIRE

Krasner, Stephen D.

2012-01-01

Os regimes internacionais são definidos como princípios, normas, regras e procedimentos de tomada de decisões ao redor dos quais as expectativas dos atores convergem em uma dada área-tema. Como ponto de partida, os regimes são conceituados como variáveis intervenientes, estando entre fatores causais básicos e os resultados e comportamentos relacionados. Há três visões a respeito da importância dos regimes: as orientações estruturais convencionais desvalorizam os regimes como sendo, na melhor ...

Features of Red Sea Water Masses

Science.gov (United States)

Kartadikaria, Aditya; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2015-04-01

Features of Red Sea water mass can be divided into three types but best to be grouped into two different classes that are split at the potential density line σθ=27.4. The surface water (0-50 m) and the intermediate water (50-200 m) have nearly identical types of water mass. They appear as a maxima salinity layer for the water mass that has σθ > 26.0, and as a minimum salinity layer for water mass that has σθ water masses are strongly affected by mixing that is controlled by seasonal variability, fresh water intrusion of the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water (GAIW), and eddies variability. Two types of mixing; isopycnal and diapycnal mixing are part of important physical phenomena that explain the change of water mass in the Red Sea. The isopycnal mixing occurs at the neutral potential density line, connecting the Red Sea with its adjacent channel, the Gulf of Aden. Diapycnal mixing is found as a dominant mixing mode in the surface of the Red Sea Water and mainly due to energetic eddy activity. Density gradients, across which diapycnal mixing occurs, in the Red Sea are mainly due to large variations in salinity. The isolation of an extreme haline water mass below the thermocline contributes to the generation of the latitudinal shift and low diapycnal mixing. This finding further explains the difference of spatial kinetic mixing between the RSW and the Indian Ocean basin.

Features of Red Sea Water Masses

KAUST Repository

Kartadikaria, Aditya R.

2015-04-01

Features of Red Sea water mass can be divided into three types but best to be grouped into two different classes that are split at the potential density line σθ=27.4. The surface water (0-50 m) and the intermediate water (50-200 m) have nearly identical types of water mass. They appear as a maxima salinity layer for the water mass that has σθ > 26.0, and as a minimum salinity layer for water mass that has σθ < 26.0. These types of water masses are strongly affected by mixing that is controlled by seasonal variability, fresh water intrusion of the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water (GAIW), and eddies variability. Two types of mixing; isopycnal and diapycnal mixing are part of important physical phenomena that explain the change of water mass in the Red Sea. The isopycnal mixing occurs at the neutral potential density line, connecting the Red Sea with its adjacent channel, the Gulf of Aden. Diapycnal mixing is found as a dominant mixing mode in the surface of the Red Sea Water and mainly due to energetic eddy activity. Density gradients, across which diapycnal mixing occurs, in the Red Sea are mainly due to large variations in salinity. The isolation of an extreme haline water mass below the thermocline contributes to the generation of the latitudinal shift and low diapycnal mixing. This finding further explains the difference of spatial kinetic mixing between the RSW and the Indian Ocean basin.

Response of air-sea carbon fluxes and climate to orbital forcing changes in the Community Climate System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Jochum, M.; Peacock, S.; Moore, K.; Lindsay, K.

2010-07-01

A global general circulation model coupled to an ocean ecosystem model is used to quantify the response of carbon fluxes and climate to changes in orbital forcing. Compared to the present-day simulation, the simulation with the Earth's orbital parameters from 115,000 years ago features significantly cooler northern high latitudes but only moderately cooler southern high latitudes. This asymmetry is explained by a 30% reduction of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that is caused by an increased Arctic sea ice export and a resulting freshening of the North Atlantic. The strong northern high-latitude cooling and the direct insolation induced tropical warming lead to global shifts in precipitation and winds to the order of 10%-20%. These climate shifts lead to regional differences in air-sea carbon fluxes of the same order. However, the differences in global net air-sea carbon fluxes are small, which is due to several effects, two of which stand out: first, colder sea surface temperature leads to a more effective solubility pump but also to increased sea ice concentration which blocks air-sea exchange, and second, the weakening of Southern Ocean winds that is predicted by some idealized studies occurs only in part of the basin, and is compensated by stronger winds in other parts.

Spectral transformations in the regime of pulse self-trapping in a nonlinear photonic crystal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Novitsky, Denis V.

2011-01-01

We consider the interaction of a femtosecond light pulse with a one-dimensional photonic crystal with relaxing cubic nonlinearity in the regime of self-trapping. By use of numerical simulations, it is shown that, under certain conditions, the spectra of reflected and transmitted light possess the properties of narrowband (quasimonochromatic) or wideband (continuumlike) radiation. It is remarkable that these spectral features appear due to a significant frequency shift and occur inside a photonic band gap of the structure under investigation.

Increasingly heterogeneous ages at first birth by education in Southern-European and Anglo-American family-policy regimes: A seven-country comparison

Science.gov (United States)

Rendall, Michael; Aracil, Encarnacion; Bagavos, Christos; Couet, Christine; DeRose, Alessandra; DiGiulio, Paola; Lappegard, Trude; Robert-Bobée, Isabelle; Rønsen, Marit; Smallwood, Steve; Verropoulou, Georgia

2010-01-01

Family-policy regimes unfavourable to combining employment with motherhood have been claimed to increase socio-economic differentials in fertility as combining employment and motherhood has become more normative. This claim has to date been explored mainly in reference to ‘liberal’ Anglo-American regimes. Comparing education differentials in age at first birth among native-born women of 1950s and 1960s birth cohorts in seven countries representing three regime types, we find persistence in early first births among low-educated women not only in Britain and the United States but also in Greece, Italy, and Spain. Shifts towards later first births, however, were more extreme in Southern Europe and involved to some extent women at all education levels. The educationally-heterogeneous changes in age patterns of first births seen in the Southern European and Anglo-American family-policy regimes contrast with educationally-homogeneous changes across birth cohorts seen in the study’s two ‘universalistic’ countries, Norway and France. PMID:20954097

Sensitivity to spatial and temporal scale and fire regime inputs in deriving fire regime condition class

Science.gov (United States)

Linda Tedrow; Wendel J. Hann

2015-01-01

The Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) is a composite departure measure that compares current vegetation structure and fire regime to historical reference conditions. FRCC is computed as the average of: 1) Vegetation departure (VDEP) and 2) Regime (frequency and severity) departure (RDEP). In addition to the FRCC rating, the Vegetation Condition Class (VCC) and Regime...

Impacts of typhoon megi (2010) on the South China Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Ko, Dong Shan; Chao, Shenn-Yu; Wu, Chun-Chieh; Lin, I.-I.

2014-07-01

In October 2010, typhoon Megi induced a profound cold wake of size 800 km by 500 km with sea surface temperature cooling of 8°C in the South China Sea (SCS). More interestingly, the cold wake shifted from the often rightward bias to both sides of the typhoon track and moved to left in a few days. Using satellite data, in situ measurements and numerical modeling based on the East Asian Seas Nowcast/Forecast System (EASNFS), we performed detailed investigations. To obtain realistic typhoon-strength atmospheric forcing, the EASNFS applied typhoon-resolving Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model wind field blended with global weather forecast winds from the U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). In addition to the already known impacts from the slow typhoon translation speed and shallow pre-exiting ocean thermocline, we found the importance of the unique geographical setting of the SCS and the NE monsoon. As the event happened in late October, NE monsoon already started and contributed to the southwestward ambient surface current. Together with the topographicβ effect, the cold wake shifted westward to the left of Megi's track. It was also found that Megi expelled waters away from the SCS and manifested as a gush of internal Kelvin wave exporting waters through the Luzon Strait. The consequential sea level depression lasted and presented a favorable condition for cold dome development. Fission of the north-south elongated cold dome resulted afterward and produced two cold eddies that dissipated slowly thereafter.

Exploring spatial-temporal dynamics of fire regime features in mainland Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Jiménez-Ruano, Adrián; Rodrigues Mimbrero, Marcos; de la Riva Fernández, Juan

2017-10-01

This paper explores spatial-temporal dynamics in fire regime features, such as fire frequency, burnt area, large fires and natural- and human-caused fires, as an essential part of fire regime characterization. Changes in fire features are analysed at different spatial - regional and provincial/NUTS3 - levels, together with summer and winter temporal scales, using historical fire data from Spain for the period 1974-2013. Temporal shifts in fire features are investigated by means of change point detection procedures - Pettitt test, AMOC (at most one change), PELT (pruned exact linear time) and BinSeg (binary segmentation) - at a regional level to identify changes in the time series of the features. A trend analysis was conducted using the Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests at both the regional and NUTS3 level. Finally, we applied a principal component analysis (PCA) and varimax rotation to trend outputs - mainly Sen's slope values - to summarize overall temporal behaviour and to explore potential links in the evolution of fire features. Our results suggest that most fire features show remarkable shifts between the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. Mann-Kendall outputs revealed negative trends in the Mediterranean region. Results from Sen's slope suggest high spatial and intra-annual variability across the study area. Fire activity related to human sources seems to be experiencing an overall decrease in the northwestern provinces, particularly pronounced during summer. Similarly, the Hinterland and the Mediterranean coast are gradually becoming less fire affected. Finally, PCA enabled trends to be synthesized into four main components: winter fire frequency (PC1), summer burnt area (PC2), large fires (PC3) and natural fires (PC4).

Isomeric shift compensation when using resonance detectors in Moessbauer spectroscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Irkaev, S.M.; Semenkin, V.A.; Sokolov, M.M.

1981-01-01

Method for compensation of isomeric shift of lines observed during operation of resonance detectors being part of spectrometers of nuclear gamma resonance is suggested. A flowsheet of device permitting to realize the method described is given. The method is based on using the Doppler effect. A source of resonance radiation is moved at a constant velocity, which is choosen so as to compensate energy shift of lines of the source and convertors of the resonance detector. The absorber under investigation is put in motion with a constant acceleration. The resonance detector signals are amplified selected according to amplitude by a discriminator and come to the input of multichannel analyzer operating in the regime of subsequent scaling. Analysis of experimental spectra obtained at velocities of source movement from 0 to +3 mm/s shows that value of resonance absorption effect drops as increasing energy shift in the source-converter system. It is concluded that application of the method described will permit to considerably extend the field of application of resonance detectors in the Moessbauer spectroscopy and investigate in practice all the isotopes having converted transitions [ru

Carrier’s liability under the international conventions for the carriage of goods by sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anežka GROBARČÍKOVÁ

2014-09-01

Full Text Available As is well known, there is no international convention for the carriage of goods in general. Each mode of transport counts on one or several international conventions that specifically regulate the provision of international transport by sea, rail, road or air. Thus, multimodal freight transport are characterised by a patchwork of different legal regimes that represents a huge challenge for the growth of multimodal transport industry. The paper aims to analyse the latest, but still not in force Convention on Contracts for the International Carriage of Goods Wholly or Partly by Sea (the Rotterdam rules that should provide global solution for multimodal carrier liability. Comparison of the carrier’s liability in the former conventions relating to the international carriage of goods by sea and other rules are also discussed.

Do social networks influence small-scale fishermen's enforcement of sea tenure?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kara Stevens

Full Text Available Resource systems with enforced rules and strong monitoring systems typically have more predictable resource abundance, which can confer economic and social benefits to local communities. Co-management regimes demonstrate better social and ecological outcomes, but require an active role by community members in management activities, such as monitoring and enforcement. Previous work has emphasized understanding what makes fishermen comply with rules. This research takes a different approach to understand what influences an individual to enforce rules, particularly sea tenure. We conducted interviews and used multiple regression and Akaike's Information Criteria model selection to evaluate the effect of social networks, food security, recent catch success, fisherman's age and personal gear investment on individual's enforcement of sea tenure. We found that fishermen's enforcement of sea tenure declined between the two time periods measured and that social networks, age, food security, and changes in gear investment explained enforcement behavior across three different communities on Nicaragua's Atlantic Coast, an area undergoing rapid globalization.

Tropical Cyclone Induced Air-Sea Interactions Over Oceanic Fronts

Science.gov (United States)

Shay, L. K.

2012-12-01

Recent severe tropical cyclones underscore the inherent importance of warm background ocean fronts and their interactions with the atmospheric boundary layer. Central to the question of heat and moisture fluxes, the amount of heat available to the tropical cyclone is predicated by the initial mixed layer depth and strength of the stratification that essentially set the level of entrainment mixing at the base of the mixed layer. In oceanic regimes where the ocean mixed layers are thin, shear-induced mixing tends to cool the upper ocean to form cold wakes which reduces the air-sea fluxes. This is an example of negative feedback. By contrast, in regimes where the ocean mixed layers are deep (usually along the western part of the gyres), warm water advection by the nearly steady currents reduces the levels of turbulent mixing by shear instabilities. As these strong near-inertial shears are arrested, more heat and moisture transfers are available through the enthalpy fluxes (typically 1 to 1.5 kW m-2) into the hurricane boundary layer. When tropical cyclones move into favorable or neutral atmospheric conditions, tropical cyclones have a tendency to rapidly intensify as observed over the Gulf of Mexico during Isidore and Lili in 2002, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005, Dean and Felix in 2007 in the Caribbean Sea, and Earl in 2010 just north of the Caribbean Islands. To predict these tropical cyclone deepening (as well as weakening) cycles, coupled models must have ocean models with realistic ocean conditions and accurate air-sea and vertical mixing parameterizations. Thus, to constrain these models, having complete 3-D ocean profiles juxtaposed with atmospheric profiler measurements prior, during and subsequent to passage is an absolute necessity framed within regional scale satellite derived fields.

Hard time to be parents? Sea urchin fishery shifts potential reproductive contribution of population onto the shoulders of the young adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Loi, Barbara; Guala, Ivan; Pires da Silva, Rodrigo; Brundu, Gianni; Baroli, Maura; Farina, Simone

2017-01-01

In Sardinia, as in other regions of the Mediterranean Sea, sustainable fisheries of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus have become a necessity. At harvesting sites, the systematic removal of large individuals (diameter ≥ 50 mm) seriously compromises the biological and ecological functions of sea urchin populations. Specifically, in this study, we compared the reproductive potential of the populations from Mediterranean coastal areas which have different levels of sea urchin fishing pressure. The areas were located at Su Pallosu Bay, where pressure is high and Tavolara-Punta Coda Cavallo, a marine protected area where sea urchin harvesting is low. Reproductive potential was estimated by calculating the gonadosomatic index (GSI) from June 2013 to May 2014 both for individuals of commercial size (diameter without spines, TD ≥ 50 mm) and the undersized ones with gonads (30 ≤ TD sea urchins than on their size. However, since population survival in the high-pressure zone is supported by the high density of undersized sea urchins between 30 and 50 mm, management measures should be addressed to maintain these sizes and to shed light on the source of the larval supply.

Arctic Sea Ice Trafficability - New Strategies for a Changing Icescape

Science.gov (United States)

Dammann, Dyre Oliver

Sea ice is an important part of the Arctic social-environmental system, in part because it provides a platform for human transportation and for marine flora and fauna that use the ice as a habitat. Sea ice loss projected for coming decades is expected to change ice conditions throughout the Arctic, but little is known about the nature and extent of anticipated changes and in particular potential implications for over-ice travel and ice use as a platform. This question has been addressed here through an extensive effort to link sea ice use and key geophysical properties of sea ice, drawing upon extensive field surveys around on-ice operations and local and Indigenous knowledge for the widely different ice uses and ice regimes of Utqiagvik, Kotzebue, and Nome, Alaska.. A set of nine parameters that constrain landfast sea ice use has been derived, including spatial extent, stability, and timing and persistence of landfast ice. This work lays the foundation for a framework to assess and monitor key ice-parameters relevant in the context of ice-use feasibility, safety, and efficiency, drawing on different remote-sensing techniques. The framework outlines the steps necessary to further evaluate relevant parameters in the context of user objectives and key stakeholder needs for a given ice regime and ice use scenario. I have utilized this framework in case studies for three different ice regimes, where I find uses to be constrained by ice thickness, roughness, and fracture potential and develop assessment strategies with accuracy at the relevant spatial scales. In response to the widely reported importance of high-confidence ice thickness measurements, I have developed a new strategy to estimate appropriate thickness compensation factors. Compensation factors have the potential to reduce risk of misrepresenting areas of thin ice when using point-based in-situ assessment methods along a particular route. This approach was tested on an ice road near Kotzebue, Alaska, where

Stability of highly shifted equilibria in a large aspect ratio low-field tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gourdain, P.-A.; Leboeuf, J.-N.; Neches, R. Y.

2007-01-01

In the long run, the economics of fusion will dictate that reactors confine large plasma pressure rather efficiently. A possible route manifests itself as equilibria with large shift of the plasma magnetic axis. This shift compresses the flux surfaces on the outer part of the plasma, hereby increasing the allowable plasma pressure a machine can confine for a given toroidal magnetic field, which is the main cost of the device. As a first step toward a reactor, we propose investigating the stability of such configurations in a low magnetic field high aspect ratio machine. By focusing our arguments solely on the shape of the toroidal plasma current density profile we discuss the stability of highly shifted equilibria and their robustness to current profile variations that could occur in actual experiments. The evolution of the plasma parameters, as the beta poloidal is increased, is also examined to give a better understanding of the difference in performance between the various regimes

Experimental investigation on electron cyclotron absorption at down-shifted frequency in the PLT tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazzucato, E.; Fidone, I.; Cavallo, A.; von Goeler, S.; Hsuan, H.

1986-05-01

The absorption of 60 GHz electron cyclotron waves, with the extraordinary mode and an oblique angle of propagation, has been investigated in the PLT tokamak in the regime of down-shifted frequencies. The production of energetic electrons, with energies of up to 300 to 400 keV, peaks at values of toroidal field (approx. =29 kG) for which the wave frequency is significantly smaller than the electron cyclotron frequency in the whole plasma region. The observations are consistent with the predictions of the relativistic theory of electron cyclotron damping at down-shifted frequency. Existing rf sources make this process a viable method for assisting the current ramp-up, and for heating the plasma of present large tokamaks

Seasonal changes in the human alteration of fire regimes beyond the climate forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Fréjaville, Thibaut; Curt, Thomas

2017-03-01

Human activities have altered fire regimes for millennia by suppressing or enhancing natural fire activity. However, whether these anthropogenic pressures on fire activity have exceeded and will surpass climate forcing still remains uncertain. We tested if, how and the extent to which seasonal fire activity in southern France has recently (1976-2009) deviated from climate-expected trends. The latter were simulated using an ensemble of detrended fire-climate models. We found both seasonal and regional contrasts in climatic effects through a mixture of drought-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes. Dry contemporary conditions chiefly drove fire frequency and burned area, although higher fire activity was related to wetter conditions in the last three years. Surprisingly, the relative importance of preceding wet conditions was higher in winter than in summer, illustrating the strong potential dependency of regional fire-climate relationships on the human use and control of fires. In the Mediterranean mountains, warm winters and springs favour extensive fires in the following dry summer. These results highlight that increasing dryness with climate change could have antagonistic effects on fire regime by leading to larger fires in summer (moisture-limited), but lower fire activity in winter (fuel-limited fire regime). Furthermore, fire trends have significantly diverged from climatic expectations, with a strong negative alteration in fire activity in the Mediterranean lowlands and the summer burned area in the mountains. In contrast, alteration of winter fire frequency in the Mediterranean and Temperate mountains has shifted from positive to negative (or null) trends during the mid-1990s, a period when fire suppression policy underwent major revisions. Our findings demonstrate that changes in land-use and fire suppression policy have probably exceeded the strength of climate change effects on changing fire regime in southern Europe, making regional predictions of future

Tidal Marshes across a Chesapeake Bay Subestuary Are Not Keeping up with Sea-Level Rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Beckett, Leah H; Baldwin, Andrew H; Kearney, Michael S

2016-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major factor in wetland loss worldwide, and in much of Chesapeake Bay (USA) the rate of sea-level rise is higher than the current global rate of 3.2 mm yr-1 due to regional subsidence. Marshes along estuarine salinity gradients differ in vegetation composition, productivity, decomposition pathways, and sediment dynamics, and may exhibit different responses to sea-level rise. Coastal marshes persist by building vertically at rates at or exceeding regional sea-level rise. In one of the first studies to examine elevation dynamics across an estuarine salinity gradient, we installed 15 surface elevation tables (SET) and accretion marker-horizon plots (MH) in tidal freshwater, oligohaline, and brackish marshes across a Chesapeake Bay subestuary. Over the course of four years, wetlands across the subestuary decreased 1.8 ± 2.7 mm yr-1 in elevation on average, at least 5 mm yr-1 below that needed to keep pace with global sea-level rise. Elevation change rates did not significantly differ among the marshes studied, and ranged from -9.8 ± 6.9 to 4.5 ± 4.3 mm yr-1. Surface accretion of deposited mineral and organic matter was uniformly high across the estuary (~9-15 mm yr-1), indicating that elevation loss was not due to lack of accretionary input. Position in the estuary and associated salinity regime were not related to elevation change or surface matter accretion. Previous studies have focused on surface elevation change in marshes of uniform salinity (e.g., salt marshes); however, our findings highlight the need for elevation studies in marshes of all salinity regimes and different geomorphic positions, and warn that brackish, oligohaline, and freshwater tidal wetlands may be at similarly high risk of submergence in some estuaries.

ENSO influence on the interannual variability of the Red Sea convergence zone and associated rainfall

KAUST Repository

Dasari, Hari Prasad

2017-07-18

The Red Sea convergence zone (RSCZ) is formed by opposite surface winds blowing from northwest to southeast directions at around 18°-19°N between October and January. A reverse-oriented, low-level monsoon trough at 850hPa, known as the Red Sea trough (RST), transfers moisture from the southern Red Sea to RSCZ. The positions of the RSCZ and RST and the intensity of the RST have been identified as important factors in modulating weather and climatic conditions across the Middle East. Here, we investigate the influence of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of RSCZ, RST, and regional rainfall during winter months. Our results indicate that El Niño (warm ENSO phase) favours a shift of the RSCZ to the north and a strengthening of the RST in the same direction. Conversely, during November and December of La Niña periods (cold ENSO phase), the RSCZ shift to the south and the RST strengthens in the same direction. During El Niño periods, southeasterly wind speeds increase (20-30%) over the southern Red Sea and northwesterly wind speeds decrease (10-15%) over the northern Red Sea. Noticeable increases in the number of rainy days and the intensity of rain events are observed during El Niño phases. These increases are associated with colder than normal air intrusion at lower levels from the north combined with warm air intrusion from the south over the RSCZ. Our analysis suggests that during El Niño winters, warmer sea surface temperatures and higher convective instability over the Red Sea favour local storms conditions and increase rainfall over the Red Sea and adjoining regions.

Lack of seasonal and geographic variation in mesozooplankton biomass in the Arabian Sea and its structure in the mixed layer

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Madhupratap, M.; Gopalakrishnan, T.C.; Haridas, P.; Nair, K.K.C.; Aravindakshan, P.N.; Padmavati, G.; Paul, S.

by carnivores. A few species, common in all seasons, accounted the majority of the population. The 'paradox' of the Arabian Sea, that zooplankton biomass remains more or less invariant, despite seasonally varying primary production regimes, could be explained...

Strengthening the nuclear non-proliferation regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlson, J.

2003-01-01

Although the nuclear non-proliferation regime has enjoyed considerable success, today the regime has never been under greater threat. Three states have challenged the objectives of the NPT, and there is a technology challenge - the spread of centrifuge enrichment technology and know-how. A major issue confronting the international community is, how to deal with a determined proliferator? Despite this gloomy scenario, however, the non-proliferation regime has considerable strengths - many of which can be developed further. The regime comprises complex interacting and mutually reinforcing elements. At its centre is the NPT - with IAEA safeguards as the Treaty's verification mechanism. Important complementary elements include: restraint in the supply and the acquisition of sensitive technologies; multilateral regimes such as the CTBT and proposed FMCT; various regional and bilateral regimes; the range of security and arms control arrangements outside the nuclear area (including other WMD regimes); and the development of proliferation-resistant technologies. Especially important are political incentives and sanctions in support of non-proliferation objectives. This paper outlines some of the key issues facing the non-proliferation regime

Climatology of the autumn Red Sea trough

Science.gov (United States)

Awad, Adel M.; Mashat, Abdul-Wahab S.

2018-03-01

In this study, the Sudan low and the associated Red Sea trough (RST) are objectively identified using the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis dataset covering the period 1955-2015. The Sudan low was detected in approximately 60.6% of the autumn periods, and approximately 83% of the detected low-pressure systems extended into RSTs, with most generated at night and during cold months. The distribution of the RSTs demonstrated that Sudan, South Sudan and Red Sea are the primary development areas of the RSTs, generating 97% of the RSTs in the study period. In addition, the outermost areas affected by RSTs, which include the southern, central and northern Red Sea areas, received approximately 91% of the RSTs originating from the primary generation areas. The synoptic features indicated that a Sudan low developed into an RST when the Sudan low deepened in the atmosphere, while the low pressures over the southern Arabian Peninsula are shallow and the anticyclonic systems are weakened over the northern Red Sea. Moreover, stabile areas over Africa and Arabian Peninsula form a high stability gradient around the Red Sea and the upper maximum winds weaken. The results of the case studies indicate that RSTs extend northward when the upper cyclonic and anticyclonic systems form a high geopotential gradient over Arabian Peninsula. Furthermore, the RST is oriented from the west to the east when the Azores high extends eastward and the Siberian high shrinks eastward or shifts northward.

Autonomia e relevância dos regimes The autonomy and relevance of regimes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gustavo Seignemartin de Carvalho

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Teorias institucionalistas na disciplina de relações internacionais usualmente definem regimes como um conjunto de normas e regras formais ou informais que permitem a convergência de expectativas ou a padronização do comportamento de seus participantes em uma determinada área de interesses com o objetivo de resolver problemas de coordenação que tenderiam a resultados não pareto-eficientes. Como estas definições baseadas meramente na "eficiência" dos regimes não parecem suficientes para explicar sua efetividade, o presente artigo propõe uma definição diferente para regimes: a de arranjos políticos que permitem a redistribuição dos ganhos da cooperação pelos participantes em uma determinada área de interesses em um contexto de interdependência. Regimes possuiriam efetividade pela sua autonomia e relevância, ou seja, por possuírem existência objetiva autônoma da de seus participantes e por influenciarem seu comportamento e expectativas de maneiras que não podem ser reduzidas à ação individual de nenhum deles. O artigo inicia-se com uma breve discussão sobre as dificuldades terminológicas associadas ao estudo de regimes e a definição dos conceitos de autonomia e relevância. Em seguida, classifica os diversos autores participantes do debate em duas perspectivas distintas, uma que nega (não-autonomistas e outra que atribui (autonomistas aos regimes autonomia e relevância, e faz uma breve análise dos autores e tradições mais significativos para o debate, aprofundando-se nos autonomistas e nos argumentos que reforçam a hipótese aqui apresentada. Ao final, o artigo propõe uma decomposição analítica dos regimes nos quatro elementos principais que lhes propiciam autonomia e relevância: normatividade, atores, especificidade da área de interesses e interdependência complexa com o contexto.Regimes are defined by institutionalist theories in the discipline of International Relations as formal or informal sets

Climate change and control of the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Hunt, George L., Jr.; Stabeno, Phyllis; Walters, Gary; Sinclair, Elizabeth; Brodeur, Richard D.; Napp, Jeffery M.; Bond, Nicholas A.

2002-12-01

We propose a new hypothesis, the Oscillating Control Hypothesis (OCH), which predicts that pelagic ecosystem function in the southeastern Bering Sea will alternate between primarily bottom-up control in cold regimes and primarily top-down control in warm regimes. The timing of spring primary production is determined predominately by the timing of ice retreat. Late ice retreat (late March or later) leads to an early, ice-associated bloom in cold water (e.g., 1995, 1997, 1999), whereas no ice, or early ice retreat before mid-March, leads to an open-water bloom in May or June in warm water (e.g., 1996, 1998, 2000). Zooplankton populations are not closely coupled to the spring bloom, but are sensitive to water temperature. In years when the spring bloom occurs in cold water, low temperatures limit the production of zooplankton, the survival of larval/juvenile fish, and their recruitment into the populations of species of large piscivorous fish, such as walleye pollock ( Theragra chalcogramma), Pacific cod ( Gadus macrocephalus) and arrowtooth flounder ( Atheresthes stomias). When continued over decadal scales, this will lead to bottom-up limitation and a decreased biomass of piscivorous fish. Alternatively, in periods when the bloom occurs in warm water, zooplankton populations should grow rapidly, providing plentiful prey for larval and juvenile fish. Abundant zooplankton will support strong recruitment of fish and will lead to abundant predatory fish that control forage fish, including, in the case of pollock, their own juveniles. Piscivorous marine birds and pinnipeds may achieve higher production of young and survival in cold regimes, when there is less competition from large piscivorous fish for cold-water forage fish such as capelin ( Mallotus villosus). Piscivorous seabirds and pinnipeds also may be expected to have high productivity in periods of transition from cold regimes to warm regimes, when young of large predatory species of fish are numerous enough to

Thermal refugia against coral bleaching throughout the northern Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Osman, Eslam O.; Smith, David J.; Ziegler, Maren; Kü rten, Benjamin; Conrad, Constanze; El-Haddad, Khaled M.; Voolstra, Christian R.; Suggett, David J.

2017-01-01

Tropical reefs have been impacted by thermal anomalies caused by global warming that induced coral bleaching and mortality events globally. However, there have only been very few recordings of bleaching within the Red Sea despite covering a latitudinal range of 15° and consequently it has been considered a region that is less sensitive to thermal anomalies. We therefore examined historical patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and associated anomalies (1982–2012) and compared warming trends with a unique compilation of corresponding coral bleaching records from throughout the region. These data indicated that the northern Red Sea has not experienced mass bleaching despite intensive Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) of >15°C-weeks. Severe bleaching was restricted to the central and southern Red Sea where DHWs have been more frequent, but far less intense (DHWs <4°C-weeks). A similar pattern was observed during the 2015–2016 El Niño event during which time corals in the northern Red Sea did not bleach despite high thermal stress (i.e. DHWs >8°C-weeks), and bleaching was restricted to the central and southern Red Sea despite the lower thermal stress (DHWs < 8°C-weeks). Heat stress assays carried out in the northern (Hurghada) and central (Thuwal) Red Sea on four key reef-building species confirmed different regional thermal susceptibility, and that central Red Sea corals are more sensitive to thermal anomalies as compared to those from the north. Together, our data demonstrate that corals in the northern Red Sea have a much higher heat tolerance than their prevailing temperature regime would suggest. In contrast, corals from the central Red Sea are close to their thermal limits, which closely match the maximum annual water temperatures. The northern Red Sea harbours reef-building corals that live well below their bleaching thresholds and thus we propose that the region represents a thermal refuge of global importance.

Thermal refugia against coral bleaching throughout the northern Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Osman, Eslam O.

2017-10-17

Tropical reefs have been impacted by thermal anomalies caused by global warming that induced coral bleaching and mortality events globally. However, there have only been very few recordings of bleaching within the Red Sea despite covering a latitudinal range of 15° and consequently it has been considered a region that is less sensitive to thermal anomalies. We therefore examined historical patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and associated anomalies (1982–2012) and compared warming trends with a unique compilation of corresponding coral bleaching records from throughout the region. These data indicated that the northern Red Sea has not experienced mass bleaching despite intensive Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) of >15°C-weeks. Severe bleaching was restricted to the central and southern Red Sea where DHWs have been more frequent, but far less intense (DHWs <4°C-weeks). A similar pattern was observed during the 2015–2016 El Niño event during which time corals in the northern Red Sea did not bleach despite high thermal stress (i.e. DHWs >8°C-weeks), and bleaching was restricted to the central and southern Red Sea despite the lower thermal stress (DHWs < 8°C-weeks). Heat stress assays carried out in the northern (Hurghada) and central (Thuwal) Red Sea on four key reef-building species confirmed different regional thermal susceptibility, and that central Red Sea corals are more sensitive to thermal anomalies as compared to those from the north. Together, our data demonstrate that corals in the northern Red Sea have a much higher heat tolerance than their prevailing temperature regime would suggest. In contrast, corals from the central Red Sea are close to their thermal limits, which closely match the maximum annual water temperatures. The northern Red Sea harbours reef-building corals that live well below their bleaching thresholds and thus we propose that the region represents a thermal refuge of global importance.

Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Buchanan, Maya K.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Kopp, Robert E.

2017-06-01

The amplification of flood frequencies by sea level rise (SLR) is expected to become one of the most economically damaging impacts of climate change for many coastal locations. Understanding the magnitude and pattern by which the frequency of current flood levels increase is important for developing more resilient coastal settlements, particularly since flood risk management (e.g. infrastructure, insurance, communications) is often tied to estimates of flood return periods. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report characterized the multiplication factor by which the frequency of flooding of a given height increases (referred to here as an amplification factor; AF). However, this characterization neither rigorously considered uncertainty in SLR nor distinguished between the amplification of different flooding levels (such as the 10% versus 0.2% annual chance floods); therefore, it may be seriously misleading. Because both historical flood frequency and projected SLR are uncertain, we combine joint probability distributions of the two to calculate AFs and their uncertainties over time. Under probabilistic relative sea level projections, while maintaining storm frequency fixed, we estimate a median 40-fold increase (ranging from 1- to 1314-fold) in the expected annual number of local 100-year floods for tide-gauge locations along the contiguous US coastline by 2050. While some places can expect disproportionate amplification of higher frequency events and thus primarily a greater number of historically precedented floods, others face amplification of lower frequency events and thus a particularly fast growing risk of historically unprecedented flooding. For example, with 50 cm of SLR, the 10%, 1%, and 0.2% annual chance floods are expected respectively to recur 108, 335, and 814 times as often in Seattle, but 148, 16, and 4 times as often in Charleston, SC.

This time it's different. An inevitable decline in world petroleum production will keep oil product prices high, causing military conflicts and shifting wealth and power from democracies to authoritarian regimes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leder, Frederic [2742 Sturges Highway, Westport, CT 06880 (United States); Shapiro, Judith N. [796 Sport Hill Road, Easton, CT 06612 (United States)

2008-08-15

There is virtual agreement among geologists that world production of conventional oil will peak at some point in the future. Oil, after all, is a finite resource, while demand will only grow over time. Geologists disagree, however, exactly when the peak will occur. Using data from the International Energy Agency, the US Department of Energy, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, and petroleum industry sources, we argue that conventional oil production will reach a worldwide maximum within the next 5-10 years, earlier than generally estimated, thus leaving a very short time frame within which to plan for conversion to alternative sources of energy. Unless planning is initiated immediately, the United States and other Western democracies will see their positions in the global economy undercut as military conflicts over limited energy resources increase, and wealth and power are shifted to authoritarian regimes in Russia, Venezuela, Africa and the Middle East. (author)

The SEA of the Future: Building the Productivity Infrastructure. Volume 3

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, Betheny, Ed.; Jochim, Ashley, Ed.

2014-01-01

"The SEA of the Future" is an education publication series examining how state education agencies can shift from a compliance to a performance-oriented organization through strategic planning and performance management tools to meet growing demands to support education reform while improving productivity. This volume, the third in the…

Factors controlling late Cenozoic continental margin growth from the Ebro Delta to the western Mediterranean deep sea

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, C.H.; Maldonado, A.

1990-01-01

The Ebro continental margin sedimentation system originated with a Messinian fluvial system. This system eroded both a major subaerial canyon cutting the margin southeastward from the present Ebro Delta and an axial valley that drained northeastward down Valencia Trough. Post-Messinian submergence of this topography and the Pliocene regime of high sea levels resulted in a marine hemipelagic drape over the margin. Late Pliocene to Pleistocene glacial climatic cycles, drainagebasin deforestation, and sea-level lowstands combined to increase sediment supply, cause the margin to prograde, and create a regime of lowstand sediment-gravity flows in the deeper margin. The depositional patterns of regressive, transgressive and highstand sea-level regimes suggest that location of the sediment source near the present Ebro Delta throughout the late Cenozoic, southward current advection of sediment, and greater subsidence in the southern margin combined to cause generally asymmetric progradation of the margin to the southeast. Thicker, less stable deposits filling the Messinian subaerial canyon underwent multiple retrograde failures, eroded wide gullied canyons and formed unchanneled base-of-slope sediment aprons in the central margin area; other margin areas to the north and south developed a series of channel-levee complexes. On the basin floor, the formation of Valencia Valley over the Messinian subaerial valley and earlier faults led to draining of about 20% of the Ebro Pleistocene sediment from channel-levee complexes through the valley to prograde Valencia Fan as much as 500 km northeast of the margin. Thus, the Ebro margin has two growth directions, mainly southeastward during higher sea levels, and eastward to northeastward during lower sea levels. The northeastward draining of turbidity currents has produced unusually thin and widely dispersed turbidite systems compared to those on ponded basin floors. During the past few centuries, man's impact has exceeded natural

Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the phytoplankton communities in an upwelling area of the Alborán Sea (SW Mediterranean Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jesús M. Mercado

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Temporal variability (seasonal and inter-annual in the assembly of phytoplankton communities from the northern Alborán Sea was investigated. For this purpose, the taxonomic composition of the micro- and nano-phytoplankton communities at three fixed stations was determined every three months from 1994 to 2002. A total of 357 different taxa were identified. Most of them (about 54% were diatom species belonging to 57 genera. Dinoflagellates and coccolitophorids accounted for 118 and 30 taxa respectively. Two time periods could be differentiated with respect to the cell abundance. Thus, the mean abundance from 1994 to 1999 was 338 cell ml-1 and it dropped to about 60 cell ml-1 during the period 2000-2002. Diatoms and un-identified small flagellates dominated the communities during this first period, although a significant increase in the abundance of coccolitophorids occurred after 1997. Pseudo-nitzschia, Leptocylindrus and Chaetoceros were the dominant genera. In contrast, the coccolitophorids Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa spp. quantitatively dominated the communities from 2000 to 2002. These shifts in the community assembly were assessed by performing a sample-oriented stepwise discriminant analysis (SDA. The analysis separated the samples into three year-groups, with great inter-annual variability. In contrast, the SDA did not find any seasonal sucessional pattern. In spite of this result, chlorophyll a and cell abundance tended to be higher in the spring period, which has been described for the whole Alborán basin. The nutrient concentrations in the 75 m upper seawater layer had inter-annual fluctuations. Thus, NO3-+NO2-, PO4-3 and Si(OH4 concentrations decreased significantly in 1997-1998. Additionally, lower Si(OH4 concentrations and Si:P molar ratios were obtained in 2000. These results suggest that the inter-annual shifts in the phytoplankton taxonomic composition were due to alterations in the nutrient regime. In this paper we

Monitoring of thermal regime of permafrost in the coastal zone of Western Yamal

Science.gov (United States)

Vasiliev, A.

2009-04-01

Data on thermal regime of permafrost are required for estimation of the climate change influence on permafrost dynamics. Monitoring of thermal regime of permafrost was arranged in the area of weather station "Marre-Sale", western Yamal. In terms of geomorphology, the area of our observations belongs to the second and third marine terraces; the surface of these terraces has been partly modified by recent cryogenic processes. The elevation varies from 10 to 30 m a.s.l. Marine clays lie at the base of the geological section of the coastal deposits. Their upper part was eroded and uneven surface of marine sediments is overlain by continental sandy sediments. Marine clays are saline. In the southern part of study area, low accumulative islands are forming. Their heights above sea level do not exceed 0.5 meters, and during high tides their surface is covered by sea water. The sediments accumulating at these islands are saline silty clays. Western Yamal region is located within continuous permafrost zone with thickness of 150 to 200 meters. Study of thermal regime in the on-shore zone has been performed since 1979 using the 10-12-m-deep boreholes. In 2007, five boreholes were included in the work program of the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) project developed as a part of IPY scientific activities. According to TSP program, temperature sensors were installed at depths 2, 3, 5, and 10 meters; measurements have been performed every six hours. In this presentation, results of our observations related to climate change are discussed. For different terrain units, increase of mean annual permafrost temperature during the last 30 years has reached 0.6 to 1.5 deg. C. In the transit zone, monitoring of thermal regime have been performed since 2006. Sensors were installed at depths 0, 0.25, 0.6, 0.75, 1.25, 1.75, and 2.25 meters. The active layer depth here reaches 1.9 meters, thus the 2.25-m-sensor is located within permafrost. Monitoring data show the sharp increase in mean

Lithostratigraphy, depositional history and sea level changes of the Cauvery Basin, southern India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muthuvairvasamy Ramkumar

2003-01-01

Full Text Available The sedimentary sequence exposed in the erstwhile Tiruchirapalli district hosts a more or less complete geological record of the Upper Cretaceous-Tertiary period. Systematic field mapping, collation of data on the micro-meso scale lithology, sedimentary structures, petrography, faunal assemblage and facies relationships of these rocks, in the light of modern stratigraphic concepts, helped to enumerate the lithostratigraphic setup and depositional history of the basin. Spatial and temporal variations of the lithologies and revised stratigraphic units are presented in this paper. Many high frequency sea level cycles (presumably fourth or higher order which stack up to form third order sea level cycles (six in number, which in turn form part of second order cycles (two in number, including seven eustatic sea level peaks, have been recorded in this basin. Trend analysis of sea level curves indicates a gradual increase of the sea level from Barremian to Coniacian and a gradual decrease from Coniacian to Danian. Such lasting sea level trends had their influence on the sedimentation pattern and facies association. It is inferred that depositional bathymetry was maintained at a shallow-moderate level, primarily influenced by a lack of major subsidence during the depositional history of this basin. The study also revealed a prevalent simple basin filling process and dominant control by sea level changes, rather than tectonic movements over the depositional regime.

STUDY REGARDING TO AGGRESSIONS ON THE ECOSYSTEM DANUBE DELTA – BLACK SEA AND PROTECTIVE MEASURES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion Gr. IONESCU

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Danube Delta has suffered damages of habitat and species loss caused by factors, including: construction of dams upstream have degraded obviously flooding regime; creation of agricultural and fishing enclosures which decreased the natural and original surfaces; extending artificial navigation channels that negatively affected the hydrological regime and water quality of lakes; increase of nutrients in the water, industrial pollution and accumulate effluents that led to the reduction of plant and bird species; attempt to exploit quartz sand, very pure and fine, the sea levees, although they were protected as nature reserves because of the specific morphology and sub-Mediterranean vegetation covering them; tourism and illegal fishing; mismanagement of resources of reed and fish. The fact is that there was a slight improvement for the marine ecosystem, reported since the early 90s. At present, the area of the Danube Delta - Black Sea is developing sustainable, in terms of medium and economic perspective. In my study I used comparative methods, investigations, direct observations, measurements, calculations and actual data, obtained from surveys and direct observations, from prestigious, specialized and authorized institutions.

The Effect of the South Asia Monsoon on the Wind Sea and Swell Patterns in the Arabian Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Semedo, Alvaro

2015-04-01

Ocean surface gravity waves have a considerable impact on coastal and offshore infrastructures, and are determinant on ship design and routing. But waves also play an important role on the coastal dynamics and beach erosion, and modulate the exchanges of momentum, and mass and other scalars between the atmosphere and the ocean. A constant quantitative and qualitative knowledge of the wave patterns is therefore needed. There are two types of waves at the ocean surface: wind-sea and swell. Wind-sea waves are growing waves under the direct influence of local winds; as these waves propagate away from their generation area, or when their phase speed overcomes the local wind speed, they are called swell. Swell waves can propagate thousands of kilometers across entire ocean basins. The qualitative analysis of ocean surface waves has been the focus of several recent studies, from the wave climate to the air-sea interaction community. The reason for this interest lies mostly in the fact that waves have an impact on the lower atmosphere, and that the air-sea coupling is different depending on the wave regime. Waves modulate the exchange of momentum, heat, and mass across the air-sea interface, and this modulation is different and dependent on the prevalence of one type of waves: wind sea or swell. For fully developed seas the coupling between the ocean-surface and the overlaying atmosphere can be seen as quasi-perfect, in a sense that the momentum transfer and energy dissipation at the ocean surface are in equilibrium. This can only occur in special areas of the Ocean, either in marginal seas, with limited fetch, or in Open Ocean, in areas with strong and persistent wind speed with little or no variation in direction. One of these areas is the Arabian Sea, along the coasts of Somalia, Yemen and Oman. The wind climate in the Arabian sea is under the direct influence of the South Asia monsoon, where the wind blows steady from the northeast during the boreal winter, and

Static converters power supply: transient regimes; Alimentation par convertisseurs statiques: regimes transitoires

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pasqualini, G. [Ecole Superieure d`Electricite (France)

1997-08-01

Direct current motors, asynchronous and variable speed synchronous motors are generally supplied with static converters. Speed variation is obtained by voltage variation in DC motors and by frequency variation in AC motors. In these conditions, these motors are running continuously in transient regimes: the DC motors current is not direct and the AC motors current is not sinusoidal. This situation leads to pulsing couples in the shaft line and to an increase of Joule effect losses. The aim of this paper is to present the methods of study of the electric motors functioning using the shape of the power voltages given by converters and mathematical models of these machines. The synchronous machines are rapidly described while the asynchronous machines are studied using Ku`s transformation instead of Park`s transformation for simplification. For each type of machine, calculation methods allow to determine their current, additional losses and couple characteristics. The transient regimes considered are those remaining when the motor is running at a constant speed and defined regime (supply voltages are periodical functions of time). These transient regimes are identically reproducing with a frequency which is a multiple of the converters supply frequency. Transient regimes due to functioning changes of the motor, such as resisting couple or power supply frequency variations, are not considered in this study. (J.S.) 9 refs.

Influence of the Gulf Stream on the Barents Sea ice retreat and Eurasian coldness during early winter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sato, Kazutoshi; Inoue, Jun; Watanabe, Masahiro

2014-01-01

Abnormal sea-ice retreat over the Barents Sea during early winter has been considered a leading driver of recent midlatitude severe winters over Eurasia. However, causal relationships between such retreat and the atmospheric circulation anomalies remains uncertain. Using a reanalysis dataset, we found that poleward shift of a sea surface temperature front over the Gulf Stream likely induces warm southerly advection and consequent sea-ice decline over the Barents Sea sector, and a cold anomaly over Eurasia via planetary waves triggered over the Gulf Stream region. The above mechanism is supported by the steady atmospheric response to the diabatic heating anomalies over the Gulf Stream region obtained with a linear baroclinic model. The remote atmospheric response from the Gulf Stream would be amplified over the Barents Sea region via interacting with sea-ice anomaly, promoting the warm Arctic and cold Eurasian pattern. (letter)

Accuracy and precision of protein–ligand interaction kinetics determined from chemical shift titrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Markin, Craig J.; Spyracopoulos, Leo

2012-01-01

NMR-monitored chemical shift titrations for the study of weak protein–ligand interactions represent a rich source of information regarding thermodynamic parameters such as dissociation constants (K D ) in the micro- to millimolar range, populations for the free and ligand-bound states, and the kinetics of interconversion between states, which are typically within the fast exchange regime on the NMR timescale. We recently developed two chemical shift titration methods wherein co-variation of the total protein and ligand concentrations gives increased precision for the K D value of a 1:1 protein–ligand interaction (Markin and Spyracopoulos in J Biomol NMR 53: 125–138, 2012). In this study, we demonstrate that classical line shape analysis applied to a single set of 1 H– 15 N 2D HSQC NMR spectra acquired using precise protein–ligand chemical shift titration methods we developed, produces accurate and precise kinetic parameters such as the off-rate (k off ). For experimentally determined kinetics in the fast exchange regime on the NMR timescale, k off ∼ 3,000 s −1 in this work, the accuracy of classical line shape analysis was determined to be better than 5 % by conducting quantum mechanical NMR simulations of the chemical shift titration methods with the magnetic resonance toolkit GAMMA. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the experimental precision for k off from line shape analysis of NMR spectra was determined to be 13 %, in agreement with the theoretical precision of 12 % from line shape analysis of the GAMMA simulations in the presence of noise and protein concentration errors. In addition, GAMMA simulations were employed to demonstrate that line shape analysis has the potential to provide reasonably accurate and precise k off values over a wide range, from 100 to 15,000 s −1 . The validity of line shape analysis for k off values approaching intermediate exchange (∼100 s −1 ), may be facilitated by more accurate K D measurements from NMR

Accuracy and precision of protein-ligand interaction kinetics determined from chemical shift titrations.

Science.gov (United States)

Markin, Craig J; Spyracopoulos, Leo

2012-12-01

NMR-monitored chemical shift titrations for the study of weak protein-ligand interactions represent a rich source of information regarding thermodynamic parameters such as dissociation constants (K ( D )) in the micro- to millimolar range, populations for the free and ligand-bound states, and the kinetics of interconversion between states, which are typically within the fast exchange regime on the NMR timescale. We recently developed two chemical shift titration methods wherein co-variation of the total protein and ligand concentrations gives increased precision for the K ( D ) value of a 1:1 protein-ligand interaction (Markin and Spyracopoulos in J Biomol NMR 53: 125-138, 2012). In this study, we demonstrate that classical line shape analysis applied to a single set of (1)H-(15)N 2D HSQC NMR spectra acquired using precise protein-ligand chemical shift titration methods we developed, produces accurate and precise kinetic parameters such as the off-rate (k ( off )). For experimentally determined kinetics in the fast exchange regime on the NMR timescale, k ( off ) ~ 3,000 s(-1) in this work, the accuracy of classical line shape analysis was determined to be better than 5 % by conducting quantum mechanical NMR simulations of the chemical shift titration methods with the magnetic resonance toolkit GAMMA. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the experimental precision for k ( off ) from line shape analysis of NMR spectra was determined to be 13 %, in agreement with the theoretical precision of 12 % from line shape analysis of the GAMMA simulations in the presence of noise and protein concentration errors. In addition, GAMMA simulations were employed to demonstrate that line shape analysis has the potential to provide reasonably accurate and precise k ( off ) values over a wide range, from 100 to 15,000 s(-1). The validity of line shape analysis for k ( off ) values approaching intermediate exchange (~100 s(-1)), may be facilitated by more accurate K ( D ) measurements

Shifts in dynamic regime of an invasive lady beetle are linked to the invasion and insecticidal management of its prey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bahlai, C.A.; Werf, van der W.; O'Neal, M.; Hemerik, L.; Landis, D.A.

2015-01-01

The spread and impact of invasive species may vary over time in relation to changes in the species itself, the biological community of which it is part, or external controls on the system. Here we investigate whether there have been changes in dynamic regimes over the last 20 years of two invasive

Effects of Cross-axis Wind Jet Events on the Northern Red Sea Circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Menezes, V. V.; Bower, A. S.; Farrar, J. T.

2016-12-01

Despite its small size, the Red Sea has a complex circulation. There are boundary currents in both sides of the basin, a meridional overturning circulation, water mass formation in the northern part and an intense eddy activity. This complex pattern is driven by strong air-sea interactions. The Red Sea has one of the largest evaporation rates of the global oceans (2m/yr), an intricate and seasonally varying wind pattern. The winds blowing over the Northern Rea Sea (NRS, north of 20N) are predominantly southeastward along the main axis all year round; in the southern, they reverse seasonally due to the monsoonal regime. Although the winds are mostly along-axis in the NRS, several works have shown that sometimes during the boreal winter, the winds blow in a cross-axis direction. The westward winds from Saudi Arabia bring relatively cold dry air and dust from the desert, enhancing heat loss and evaporation off the Red Sea. These wind-jet events may contribute to increased eddy activity and are a trigger for water mass formation. Despite that, our knowledge about the cross-axis winds and their effect on NRS circulation is still incipient. In the present work we analyze 10-years of Quikscat scatterometer winds and altimetric sea surface height anomalies, together with 2-yrs of mooring data, to characterize the westward wind jet events and their impacts on the circulation. We show that the cross-axis winds are, indeed, an important component of the wind regime, explaining 11% of wind variability of the NRS (well-described by a 2nd EOF mode). The westward events occur predominantly in the winter, preferentially in January (about 15 events in 10-years) and have a mean duration of 4-5 days, with a maximum of 12 days (north of 22N). There are around 6 events per year, but in 2002-2003 and 2007-2008, twice more events were detected. The westward wind events are found to strongly modify the wind stress curl, causing a distinct positive/negative curl pattern along the main axis

Enrichment of Fusobacteria in Sea Surface Oil Slicks from the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

OpenAIRE

Gutierrez, Tony; Berry, David; Teske, Andreas; Aitken, Michael D.

2016-01-01

The Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill led to rapid microbial community shifts in the Gulf of Mexico, including the formation of unprecedented quantities of marine oil snow (MOS) and of a massive subsurface oil plume. The major taxa that bloomed in sea surface oil slicks during the spill included Cycloclasticus, and to a lesser extent Halomonas, Alteromonas, and Pseudoalteromonas?organisms that grow and degrade oil hydrocarbons aerobically. Here, we show that sea surface oil slicks at DWH cont...

Massive outbreaks of Noctiluca scintillans blooms in the Arabian Sea due to spread of hypoxia.

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Gomes, H.R.; Goes, J.I.; Matondkar, S.G.P.; Buskey, E.J.; Basu, S.; Parab, S.G.; Thoppil, P.G.

In the last decade, the northern Arabian Sea has witnessed a radical shift in the composition of winter phytoplankton blooms, which previously comprised mainly of diatoms, the unicellular, siliceous photosynthetic organisms favoured by nutrient...

Environmental impacts of tourism in the Gulf and the Red Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Gladstone, William; Curley, Belinda; Shokri, Mohammad Reza

2013-07-30

The Gulf and Red Sea possess diverse coastal and marine environments that support rapidly expanding mass tourism. Despite the associated environmental risks, there is no analysis of the tourism-related literature or recent analysis of impacts. Environmental issues reported in 101 publications (25 from the Gulf, 76 from the Red Sea) include 61 purported impacts (27 from the Gulf, 45 from the Red Sea). Gulf literature includes quantitative studies (68% publications) and reviews (32%), and addresses mostly land reclamation and artificial habitats. Most Gulf studies come from Iran and UAE (64%). Red Sea literature includes quantitative studies (81%) and reviews (11%), with most studies occurring in Egypt (70%). The most published topics relate to coral breakage and its management. A full account of tourism's environmental impacts is constrained by limited tourism data, confounding of impacts with other coastal developments, lack of baseline information, shifting baselines, and fragmentation of research across disciplines. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Copper, zinc, molybdenum and uranium distribution in bottom sediments of the Black Sea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhorov, V.A.; Sovga, E.E.; Solov'eva, L.B.; Oguslavskij, P.G.; Babinets, A.E.; AN Ukrainskoj SSR, Kiev. Inst. Geologicheskikh Nauk)

1983-01-01

The results of investigations of bottom sediments of the Black Sea by four expeditions aboard scientific ships ''Academician Vernadsky'', ''Michael Lomonosov'', ''Academician Vavilov'' in 1972-1978, are presented. 70 columns of bottom sediments are studied, about 200 samples are analyzed for Cu, Zn, Mo and U using chemical methods with photometric ending. Charts of Cu, Zn, Mo and U distribution in modern, ancient Black Sea and neoeuxenic sediments of the basin are prepared. Preferable uranium concentration in modern sediments, copper and molybdenum - in sapropelic muds of ancient Black Sea sediments and zinc - in neoeuxenic layers, is shown. Uranium geochemical behaviour is determined by physico-chemical regime of the basin, the presence of restoring situation which promotes the formation of uranium sorption-active forms in the upper layer of modern sediments. Neither sapropelite (organic matter), nor the peculiarities of lithological composition of sediments affect uranium behaviour

Exploring spatial–temporal dynamics of fire regime features in mainland Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Jiménez-Ruano

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper explores spatial–temporal dynamics in fire regime features, such as fire frequency, burnt area, large fires and natural- and human-caused fires, as an essential part of fire regime characterization. Changes in fire features are analysed at different spatial – regional and provincial/NUTS3 – levels, together with summer and winter temporal scales, using historical fire data from Spain for the period 1974–2013. Temporal shifts in fire features are investigated by means of change point detection procedures – Pettitt test, AMOC (at most one change, PELT (pruned exact linear time and BinSeg (binary segmentation – at a regional level to identify changes in the time series of the features. A trend analysis was conducted using the Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope tests at both the regional and NUTS3 level. Finally, we applied a principal component analysis (PCA and varimax rotation to trend outputs – mainly Sen's slope values – to summarize overall temporal behaviour and to explore potential links in the evolution of fire features. Our results suggest that most fire features show remarkable shifts between the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. Mann–Kendall outputs revealed negative trends in the Mediterranean region. Results from Sen's slope suggest high spatial and intra-annual variability across the study area. Fire activity related to human sources seems to be experiencing an overall decrease in the northwestern provinces, particularly pronounced during summer. Similarly, the Hinterland and the Mediterranean coast are gradually becoming less fire affected. Finally, PCA enabled trends to be synthesized into four main components: winter fire frequency (PC1, summer burnt area (PC2, large fires (PC3 and natural fires (PC4.

Impacts of Changed Extratropical Storm Tracks on Arctic Sea Ice Export through Fram Strait

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, J.; Zhang, X.; Wang, Z.

2017-12-01

Studies have indicated a poleward shift of extratropical storm tracks and intensification of Arctic storm activities, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of dynamic effect on changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and activities on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait through ocean-sea ice model simulations. The model employed is the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), which was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

Sustainable urban regime adjustments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Quitzau, Maj-Britt; Jensen, Jens Stissing; Elle, Morten

2013-01-01

The endogenous agency that urban governments increasingly portray by making conscious and planned efforts to adjust the regimes they operate within is currently not well captured in transition studies. There is a need to acknowledge the ambiguity of regime enactment at the urban scale. This direc...

Long-term patterns in fish phenology in the western Dutch Wadden Sea in relation to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

van Walraven, Lodewijk; Dapper, Rob; Nauw, Janine J.; Tulp, Ingrid; Witte, Johannes IJ.; van der Veer, Henk W.

2017-09-01

Long-term patterns in fish phenology in the western Dutch Wadden Sea were studied using a 53 year (1960-2013) high resolution time series of daily kom-fyke catches in spring and autumn. Trends in first appearance, last occurrence and peak abundance were analysed for the most common species in relation to mode of life (pelagic, demersal, benthopelagic) and biogeographic guild (northern or southern distribution). Climate change in the western Wadden Sea involved an increase in water temperature from 1980 onwards. The main pattern in first day of occurrence, peak occurrence and last day of occurrence was similar: a positive trend over time and a correlation with spring and summer water temperature. This is counterintuitive; with increasing temperature, an advanced immigration of fish species would be expected. An explanation might be that water temperatures have increased offshore as well and hence fish remain longer there, delaying their immigration to the Wadden Sea. The main trend towards later date of peak occurrence and last day of occurrence was in line with our expectations: a forward shift in immigration into the Wadden Sea implies also that peak abundance is delayed. As a consequence of the increased water temperature, autumn water temperature remains favourable longer than before. For most of the species present, the Wadden Sea is not near the edge of their distributional range. The most striking phenological shifts occurred in those individual species for which the Wadden Sea is near the southern or northern edge of their distribution.

Arctic sea ice decline contributes to thinning lake ice trend in northern Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Alexeev, Vladimir; Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Cai, Lei

2016-01-01

Field measurements, satellite observations, and models document a thinning trend in seasonal Arctic lake ice growth, causing a shift from bedfast to floating ice conditions. September sea ice concentrations in the Arctic Ocean since 1991 correlate well (r = +0.69,p Research and Forecasting model output produced a 7% decrease in lake ice growth when 2007/08 sea ice was imposed on 1991/92 climatology and a 9% increase in lake ice growth for the opposing experiment. Here, we clearly link early winter 'ocean-effect' snowfall and warming to reduced lake ice growth. Future reductions in sea ice extent will alter hydrological, biogeochemical, and habitat functioning of Arctic lakes and cause sub-lake permafrost thaw.

Assessing the potential impacts of declining Arctic sea ice cover on the photochemical degradation of dissolved organic matter in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas

Science.gov (United States)

Logvinova, Christie L.; Frey, Karen E.; Mann, Paul J.; Stubbins, Aron; Spencer, Robert G. M.

2015-11-01

A warming and shifting climate in the Arctic has led to significant declines in sea ice over the last several decades. Although these changes in sea ice cover are well documented, large uncertainties remain in how associated increases in solar radiation transmitted to the underlying ocean water column will impact heating, biological, and biogeochemical processes in the Arctic Ocean. In this study, six under-ice marine, two ice-free marine, and two ice-free terrestrially influenced water samples were irradiated using a solar simulator for 72 h (representing ~10 days of ambient sunlight) to investigate dissolved organic matter (DOM) dynamics from the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Solar irradiation caused chromophoric DOM (CDOM) light absorption at 254 nm to decrease by 48 to 63%. An overall loss in total DOM fluorescence intensity was also observed at the end of all experiments, and each of six components identified by parallel factor (PARAFAC) analysis was shown to be photoreactive in at least one experiment. Fluorescent DOM (FDOM) also indicated that the majority of DOM in under-ice and ice-free marine waters was likely algal-derived. Measurable changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were only observed for sites influenced by riverine runoff. Losses of CDOM absorbance at shorter wavelengths suggest that the beneficial UV protection currently received by marine organisms may decline with the increased light transmittance associated with sea ice melt ponding and overall reductions of sea ice. Our FDOM analyses demonstrate that DOM irrespective of source was susceptible to photobleaching. Additionally, our findings suggest that photodegradation of CDOM in under-ice waters is not currently a significant source of carbon dioxide (CO2) (i.e., we did not observe systematic DOC loss). However, increases in primary production and terrestrial freshwater export expected under future climate change scenarios may cause an increase in CDOM quantity and shift in quality

Design of all-optical high-order temporal integrators based on multiple-phase-shifted Bragg gratings.

Science.gov (United States)

Asghari, Mohammad H; Azaña, José

2008-07-21

In exact analogy with their electronic counterparts, photonic temporal integrators are fundamental building blocks for constructing all-optical circuits for ultrafast information processing and computing. In this work, we introduce a simple and general approach for realizing all-optical arbitrary-order temporal integrators. We demonstrate that the N(th) cumulative time integral of the complex field envelope of an input optical waveform can be obtained by simply propagating this waveform through a single uniform fiber/waveguide Bragg grating (BG) incorporating N pi-phase shifts along its axial profile. We derive here the design specifications of photonic integrators based on multiple-phase-shifted BGs. We show that the phase shifts in the BG structure can be arbitrarily located along the grating length provided that each uniform grating section (sections separated by the phase shifts) is sufficiently long so that its associated peak reflectivity reaches nearly 100%. The resulting designs are demonstrated by numerical simulations assuming all-fiber implementations. Our simulations show that the proposed approach can provide optical operation bandwidths in the tens-of-GHz regime using readily feasible photo-induced fiber BG structures.

Environment and security in the South China Sea region : the role of experts, non-governmental actors and governments in regime building processes

OpenAIRE

Næss, Tom

1999-01-01

Background: The Spratly islands in the South China Sea are today the focal point of a territorial dispute that represents a serious threat to the regional security in Southeast Asia. Six governments - China, Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei - have laid claims to all or some of the more than 230 islets, reefs and shoals in the Spratly area. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) is a key player in the South China Sea conflict. However, the South China Sea is not jus...

Anthropogenic Water Uses and River Flow Regime Alterations by Dams

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrazzi, M.; Botter, G.

2017-12-01

Dams and impoundments have been designed to reconcile the systematic conflict between patterns of anthropogenic water uses and the temporal variability of river flows. Over the past seven decades, population growth and economic development led to a marked increase in the number of these water infrastructures, so that unregulated free-flowing rivers are now rare in developed countries and alterations of the hydrologic cycle at global scale have to be properly considered and characterized. Therefore, improving our understanding of the influence of dams and reservoirs on hydrologic regimes is going to play a key role in water planning and management. In this study, a physically based analytic approach is combined to extensive hydrologic data to investigate natural flow regime alterations downstream of dams in the Central-Eastern United States. These representative case studies span a wide range of different uses, including flood control, water supply and hydropower production. Our analysis reveals that the most evident effects of flood control through dams is a decrease in the intra-seasonal variability of flows, whose extent is controlled by the ratio between the storage capacity for flood control and the average incoming streamflow. Conversely, reservoirs used for water supply lead to an increase of daily streamflow variability and an enhanced inter-catchment heterogeneity. Over the last decades, the supply of fresh water required to sustain human populations has become a major concern at global scale. Accordingly, the number of reservoirs devoted to water supply increased by 50% in the US. This pattern foreshadows a possible shift in the cumulative effect of dams on river flow regimes in terms of inter-catchment homogenization and intra-annual flow variability.

The teachers at Sea program of the Committee on Education of EGU

Science.gov (United States)

Laj, Carlo; Kissel, Catherine; Leau, Hélène

2015-04-01

"Teachers at sea" is an Educational Program making it possible for high school teachers to participate to oceanographic cruises together with the scientists. With the support of the French Polar Insitute (IPEV) and of EGU, 3 editions of this program have taken place on board the R/V Marion Dufresne during cruises PACHIDERME in 2007 (along the Coast and in the fiords of Southern Chile), AMOCINT in 2008 (in the North Atlantic Ocean), and CIRCEA (in the South China Sea in 2012) Another edition took place in 2014, aboard the oceanographic cruise PREPARED (PREsent and PAst flow REgime on contourite Drifts west of Spitsbergen, onboard the Norwegian Research Vessel G.O Sars from 05 to 15 June 2014. The expedition was part of the EUROFLEETS On board, the teachers participated to all the scientific activities. In order to be fully immersed in the scientific work, the teachers also participated together with the scientists and technicians to two 4-hours shifts per day (8h total per day). During these shifts, they were involved in every step of the process of obtaining the cores, cutting, opening and labelling them, archiving, and measuring some of the physical parameters, and finally sediment description. It was possible to establish almost daily reports of the scientific progress of the cruise and to send regular logs to the participating land-based teachers in different schools mainly in Europe and in the USA, taking advantage of a list of addresses of teachers having participated to the Geosciences Information for teachers (GIFT) workshops of the European Geosciences Union. This should bring authentic science in the classroom, and indeed we received enthusiastic responses from many teachers. Exposure to authentic science, such as that the teachers have experienced during these oceanographic cruises, may be a pivotal experience for them, causing them to change at least in part their teaching methods, possibly creating more future scientists or at least adults with positive

Modeling and forecasting of wind power generation - Regime-switching approaches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trombe, Pierre-Julien

The present thesis addresses a number of challenges emerging from the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources into power systems. Focus is placed on wind energy and large-scale offshore wind farms. Indeed, offshore wind power variability is becoming a serious obstacle to the integration...... of more renewable energy into power systems since these systems are subjected to maintain a strict balance between electricity consumption and production, at any time. For this purpose, wind power forecasts offer an essential support to power system operators. In particular, there is a growing demand...... case study is the Horns Rev wind farm located in the North Sea. Regime-switching aspects of offshore wind power fluctuations are investigated. Several formulations of Markov-Switching models are proposed in order to better characterize the stochastic behavior of the underlying process and improve its...

Shift Colors

Science.gov (United States)

Publications & News Shift Colors Pages default Sign In NPC Logo Banner : Shift Colors Search Navy Personnel Command > Reference Library > Publications & News > Shift Colors Top Link Bar Navy Personnel Library Expand Reference Library Quick Launch Shift Colors Shift Colors Archives Mailing Address How to

Searching for resilience: addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services

Science.gov (United States)

Seidl, Rupert; Spies, Thomas A.; Peterson, David L.; Stephens, Scott L.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.

2016-01-01

Summary 1. The provisioning of ecosystem services to society is increasingly under pressure from global change. Changing disturbance regimes are of particular concern in this context due to their high potential impact on ecosystem structure, function and composition. Resilience-based stewardship is advocated to address these changes in ecosystem management, but its operational implementation has remained challenging. 2. We review observed and expected changes in disturbance regimes and their potential impacts on provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting ecosystem services, concentrating on temperate and boreal forests. Subsequently, we focus on resilience as a powerful concept to quantify and address these changes and their impacts, and present an approach towards its operational application using established methods from disturbance ecology. 3. We suggest using the range of variability concept – characterizing and bounding the long-term behaviour of ecosystems – to locate and delineate the basins of attraction of a system. System recovery in relation to its range of variability can be used to measure resilience of ecosystems, allowing inferences on both engineering resilience (recovery rate) and monitoring for regime shifts (directionality of recovery trajectory). 4. It is important to consider the dynamic nature of these properties in ecosystem analysis and management decision-making, as both disturbance processes and mechanisms of resilience will be subject to changes in the future. Furthermore, because ecosystem services are at the interface between natural and human systems, the social dimension of resilience (social adaptive capacity and range of variability) requires consideration in responding to changing disturbance regimes in forests. 5. Synthesis and applications. Based on examples from temperate and boreal forests we synthesize principles and pathways for fostering resilience to changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. We

International Food Regime

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. V. Malov

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The review article reveals the content of the concept of Food Regime, which is little-known in the Russian academic reference. The author monitored and codified the semantic dynamic of the terminological unit from its original interpretations to modern formulations based on the retrospective analysis. The rehabilitation of the academic merits of D. Puchala and R. Hopkins — authors who used the concept Food Regime for a few years before its universally recognized origin and official scientific debut, was accomplished with help of historical and comparative methods. The author implemented the method of ascension from the abstract to the concrete to demonstrating the classification of Food Regimes compiled on the basis of geopolitical interests in the sphere of international production, consumption, and distribution of foodstuffs. The characteristic features of historically formed Food Regime were described in the chronological order, as well as modern tendencies possessing reformist potential were identified. In particular, it has been established that the idea of Food Sovereignty (which is an alternative to the modern Corporate Food Regime is the subject for acute academic disputes. The discussion between P. McMichael P. and H. Bernstein devoted to the “peasant question” — mobilization frame of the Food Sovereignty strategy was analyzed using the secondary data processing method. Due to the critical analysis, the author comes to the conclusion that it is necessary to follow the principles of the Food Sovereignty strategy to prevent the catastrophic prospects associated with ecosystem degradation, accelerated erosion of soils, the complete disappearance of biodiversity and corporate autoc racy successfully. The author is convinced that the idea of Food Sovereignty can ward off energetic liberalization of nature, intensive privatization of life and rapid monetization of unconditioned human reflexes.

Shifts in nursery habitat utilization by 0-group plaice in the western Dutch Wadden Sea

NARCIS (Netherlands)