WorldWideScience

Sample records for sea level climatic

  1. Sea level and climate variations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1985-01-01

    Review paper, ESA Symposium on Application of Satellite Data to Climate Modelling. Alpbach (Austria) Sea level is an essential component of the climate system, on which many human activities in the coastal zone depend. Climate variations leading to changes in relative sea level are

  2. Short Lived Climate Pollutants cause a Long Lived Effect on Sea-level Rise: Analyzing climate metrics for sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterner, E.; Johansson, D. J.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change depends on the increase of several different atmospheric pollutants. While long term global warming will be determined mainly by carbon dioxide, warming in the next few decades will depend to a large extent on short lived climate pollutants (SLCP). Reducing emissions of SLCPs could contribute to lower the global mean surface temperature by 0.5 °C already by 2050 (Shindell et al. 2012). Furthermore, the warming effect of one of the most potent SLCPs, black carbon (BC), may have been underestimated in the past. Bond et al. (2013) presents a new best estimate of the total BC radiative forcing (RF) of 1.1 W/m2 (90 % uncertainty bounds of 0.17 to 2.1 W/m2) since the beginning of the industrial era. BC is however never emitted alone and cooling aerosols from the same sources offset a majority of this RF. In the wake of calls for mitigation of SLCPs it is important to study other aspects of the climate effect of SLCPs. One key impact of climate change is sea-level rise (SLR). In a recent study, the effect of SLCP mitigation scenarios on SLR is examined. Hu et al (2013) find a substantial effect on SLR from mitigating SLCPs sharply, reducing SLR by 22-42% by 2100. We choose a different approach focusing on emission pulses and analyse a metric based on sea level rise so as to further enlighten the SLR consequences of SLCPs. We want in particular to understand the time dynamics of SLR impacts caused by SLCPs compared to other greenhouse gases. The most commonly used physical based metrics are GWP and GTP. We propose and evaluate an additional metric: The global sea-level rise potential (GSP). The GSP is defined as the sea level rise after a time horizon caused by an emissions pulse of a forcer to the sea level rise after a time horizon caused by an emissions pulse of a CO2. GSP is evaluated and compared to GWP and GTP using a set of climate forcers chosen to cover the whole scale of atmospheric perturbation life times (BC, CH4, N2O, CO2 and SF6). The study

  3. Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goelzer, Heiko; Huybrechts, Philippe; Loutre, Marie-France; Fichefet, Thierry

    2016-12-01

    As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG, ˜ 130 to 115 kyr BP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3, which includes dynamic and fully coupled components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this setup, sea-level evolution and climate-ice sheet interactions are modelled in a consistent framework.Surface mass balance change governed by changes in surface meltwater runoff is the dominant forcing for the Greenland ice sheet, which shows a peak sea-level contribution of 1.4 m at 123 kyr BP in the reference experiment. Our results indicate that ice sheet-climate feedbacks play an important role to amplify climate and sea-level changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to surface temperature changes considerably increases when interactive albedo changes are considered. Southern Hemisphere polar and sub-polar ocean warming is limited throughout the Last Interglacial, and surface and sub-shelf melting exerts only a minor control on the Antarctic sea-level contribution with a peak of 4.4 m at 125 kyr BP. Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet at the onset of the LIG is mainly forced by rising sea level and to a lesser extent by reduced ice shelf viscosity as the surface temperature increases. Global sea level shows a peak of 5.3 m at 124.5 kyr BP, which includes a minor contribution of 0.35 m from oceanic thermal expansion. Neither the individual contributions nor the total modelled sea-level stand show fast multi-millennial timescale variations as indicated by some reconstructions.

  4. Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society

    Science.gov (United States)

    MIMURA, Nobuo

    2013-01-01

    Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society. PMID:23883609

  5. A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reager, J T; Gardner, A S; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Eicker, A; Lo, M-H

    2016-02-12

    Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  6. Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mimura, Nobuo

    2013-01-01

    Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society.(Communicated by Kiyoshi HORIKAWA, M.J.A.).

  7. Sea Level Change and Coastal Climate Services: The Way Forward

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonéri Le Cozannet

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available For many climate change impacts such as drought and heat waves, global and national frameworks for climate services are providing ever more critical support to adaptation activities. Coastal zones are especially in need of climate services for adaptation, as they are increasingly threatened by sea level rise and its impacts, such as submergence, flooding, shoreline erosion, salinization and wetland change. In this paper, we examine how annual to multi-decadal sea level projections can be used within coastal climate services (CCS. To this end, we review the current state-of-the art of coastal climate services in the US, Australia and France, and identify lessons learned. More broadly, we also review current barriers in the development of CCS, and identify research and development efforts for overcoming barriers and facilitating their continued growth. The latter includes: (1 research in the field of sea level, coastal and adaptation science and (2 cross-cutting research in the area of user interactions, decision making, propagation of uncertainties and overall service architecture design. We suggest that standard approaches are required to translate relative sea level information into the forms required to inform the wide range of relevant decisions across coastal management, including coastal adaptation.

  8. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2013-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

  9. Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nerem, R S; Beckley, B D; Fasullo, J T; Hamlington, B D; Masters, D; Mitchum, G T

    2018-02-27

    Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y 2 Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  10. Accurately measuring sea level change from space: an ESA Climate Change Initiative for MSL closure budget studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Legeais, Jean-Francois; Cazenave, Anny; Larnicol, Gille

    Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change and variability. Sea level integrates the ocean warming, mountain glaciers and ice sheet melting. Understanding the sea level variability and changes implies an accurate monitoring of the sea level variable at climate scales, in addition...... to understanding the ocean variability and the exchanges between ocean, land, cryosphere, and atmosphere. That is why Sea Level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing long-term monitoring of the sea level ECV...... validation, performed by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community. At last, the main improvements derived from the algorithms development dedicated to the 2016 full reprocessing of the dataset are described. Efforts have also focused on the improvement of the sea level estimation...

  11. Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, S; Caesar, J; Wolf, J; Bricheno, L; Nicholls, R J; Saiful Islam, A K M; Haque, A; Pardaens, A; Lowe, J A

    2015-07-01

    Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5th assessment modelling of sea level rise and estimates of subsidence rates from the EU IMPACT2C project suggest that sea level in the GBM delta region may rise by 0.63 to 0.88 m by 2090, with some studies suggesting this could be up to 0.5 m higher if potential substantial melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is included. These sea level rise scenarios lead to increased frequency of high water coastal events. Any effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storms can also have an effect on extreme sea levels. A shelf-sea model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to investigate how the combined effect of sea level rise and changes in other environmental conditions under climate change may alter the frequency of extreme sea level events for the period 1971 to 2099. The model was forced using atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions derived from climate model projections and the future scenario increase in sea level was applied at its ocean boundary. The model results show an increased likelihood of extreme sea level events through the 21st century, with the frequency of events increasing greatly in the second half of the century: water levels that occurred at decadal time intervals under present-day model conditions occurred in most years by the middle of the 21st century and 3-15 times per year by 2100. The heights of the most extreme events tend to increase more in the first half of the century than the second. The modelled scenarios provide a case study of how sea level rise and other effects of climate change may combine to produce a greatly increased threat to life and property in the GBM delta by the end

  12. Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

    2018-03-01

    Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

  13. Accurately measuring sea level change from space: an ESA climate change initiative for MSL closure budget studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legeais, JeanFrancois; Benveniste, Jérôme

    2016-07-01

    Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change and variability. Sea level integrates the ocean warming, mountain glaciers and ice sheet melting. Understanding the sea level variability and changes implies an accurate monitoring of the sea level variable at climate scales, in addition to understanding the ocean variability and the exchanges between ocean, land, cryosphere, and atmosphere. That is why Sea Level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing long-term monitoring of the sea level ECV with regular updates, as required for climate studies. The program is now in its second phase of 3 year (following phase I during 2011-2013). The objectives are firstly to involve the climate research community, to refine their needs and collect their feedbacks on product quality. And secondly to develop, test and select the best algorithms and standards to generate an updated climate time series and to produce and validate the Sea Level ECV product. This will better answer the climate user needs by improving the quality of the Sea Level products and maintain a sustain service for an up-to-date production. This has led to the production of a first version of the Sea Level ECV which has benefited from yearly extensions and now covers the period 1993-2014. Within phase II, new altimeter standards have been developed and tested in order to reprocess the dataset with the best standards for climate studies. The reprocessed ECV will be released in summer 2016. We will present the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level Project. On the one hand, the major steps required to produce the 22 years climate time series are briefly described: collect and refine the user requirements, development of adapted algorithms for climate applications and specification of the production system. On the other hand, the product characteristics are described as well as the results from product

  14. Annual mean sea level and its sensitivity to wind climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerkema, Theo; Duran Matute, Matias

    2017-04-01

    Changes in relative mean sea level affect coastal areas in various ways, such as the risk of flooding, the evolution of barrier island systems, or the development of salt marshes. Long-term trends in these changes are partly masked by variability on shorter time scales. Some of this variability, for instance due to wind waves and tides (with the exception of long-period tides), is easily averaged out. In contrast, inter-annual variability is found to be irregular and large, of the order of several decimeters, as is evident from tide gauge records. This is why the climatic trend, typically of a few millimeters per year, can only be reliably identified by examining a record that is long enough to outweigh the inter-annual and decadal variabilities. In this presentation we examine the relation between the annual wind conditions from meteorological records and annual mean sea level along the Dutch coast. To do this, we need reliable and consistent long-term wind records. Some wind records from weather stations in the Netherlands date back to the 19th century, but they are unsuitable for trend analysis because of changes in location, height, surroundings, instrument type or protocol. For this reason, we will use only more recent, homogeneous wind records, from the past two decades. The question then is whether such a relatively short record is sufficient to find a convincing relation with annual mean sea level. It is the purpose of this work to demonstrate that the answer is positive and to suggest methods to find and exploit such a relation. We find that at the Dutch coast, southwesterly winds are dominant in the wind climate, but the west-east direction stands out as having the highest correlation with annual mean sea level. For different stations in the Dutch Wadden Sea and along the coast, we find a qualitatively similar pattern, although the precise values of the correlations vary. The inter-annual variability of mean sea level can already be largely explained by

  15. An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legeais, Jean-François; Ablain, Michaël; Zawadzki, Lionel; Zuo, Hao; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Scharffenberg, Martin G.; Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Joana Fernandes, M.; Baltazar Andersen, Ole; Rudenko, Sergei; Cipollini, Paolo; Quartly, Graham D.; Passaro, Marcello; Cazenave, Anny; Benveniste, Jérôme

    2018-02-01

    Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change since it integrates the impacts of ocean warming and ice mass loss from glaciers and the ice sheets. Sea level has been listed as an essential climate variable (ECV) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). During the past 25 years, the sea level ECV has been measured from space by different altimetry missions that have provided global and regional observations of sea level variations. As part of the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) (established in 2010), the Sea Level project (SL_cci) aimed to provide an accurate and homogeneous long-term satellite-based sea level record. At the end of the first phase of the project (2010-2013), an initial version (v1.1) of the sea level ECV was made available to users (Ablain et al., 2015). During the second phase of the project (2014-2017), improved altimeter standards were selected to produce new sea level products (called SL_cci v2.0) based on nine altimeter missions for the period 1993-2015 (https://doi.org/10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2015-v_2.0-201612; Legeais and the ESA SL_cci team, 2016c). Corresponding orbit solutions, geophysical corrections and altimeter standards used in this v2.0 dataset are described in detail in Quartly et al. (2017). The present paper focuses on the description of the SL_cci v2.0 ECV and associated uncertainty and discusses how it has been validated. Various approaches have been used for the quality assessment such as internal validation, comparisons with sea level records from other groups and with in situ measurements, sea level budget closure analyses and comparisons with model outputs. Compared with the previous version of the sea level ECV, we show that use of improved geophysical corrections, careful bias reduction between missions and inclusion of new altimeter missions lead to improved sea level products with reduced uncertainties on different spatial and temporal scales. However, there

  16. Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

  17. Climate change, sea-level rise, and conservation: keeping island biodiversity afloat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courchamp, Franck; Hoffmann, Benjamin D; Russell, James C; Leclerc, Camille; Bellard, Céline

    2014-03-01

    Island conservation programs have been spectacularly successful over the past five decades, yet they generally do not account for impacts of climate change. Here, we argue that the full spectrum of climate change, especially sea-level rise and loss of suitable climatic conditions, should be rapidly integrated into island biodiversity research and management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Projecting future sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

    2006-01-01

    California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future

  19. Uncertainties in Future Regional Sea Level Trends: How to Deal with the Internal Climate Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

    2017-12-01

    Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.

  20. Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Gavin L; Rohling, Eelco J

    2013-01-22

    On 10(3)- to 10(6)-year timescales, global sea level is determined largely by the volume of ice stored on land, which in turn largely reflects the thermal state of the Earth system. Here we use observations from five well-studied time slices covering the last 40 My to identify a well-defined and clearly sigmoidal relationship between atmospheric CO(2) and sea level on geological (near-equilibrium) timescales. This strongly supports the dominant role of CO(2) in determining Earth's climate on these timescales and suggests that other variables that influence long-term global climate (e.g., topography, ocean circulation) play a secondary role. The relationship between CO(2) and sea level we describe portrays the "likely" (68% probability) long-term sea-level response after Earth system adjustment over many centuries. Because it appears largely independent of other boundary condition changes, it also may provide useful long-range predictions of future sea level. For instance, with CO(2) stabilized at 400-450 ppm (as required for the frequently quoted "acceptable warming" of 2 °C), or even at AD 2011 levels of 392 ppm, we infer a likely (68% confidence) long-term sea-level rise of more than 9 m above the present. Therefore, our results imply that to avoid significantly elevated sea level in the long term, atmospheric CO(2) should be reduced to levels similar to those of preindustrial times.

  1. Climate And Sea Level: It's In Our Hands Now

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turrin, M.; Bell, R. E.; Ryan, W. B. F.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in sea level are measurable on both a local and a global scale providing an accessible way to connect climate to education, yet engaging teachers and students with the complex science that is behind the change in sea level can be a challenge. Deciding how much should be included and just how it should be introduced in any single classroom subject area can be an obstacle for a teacher. The Sea Level Rise Polar Explorer App developed through the PoLAR CCEP grant offers a guided tour through the many layers of science that impact sea level rise. This map-based data-rich app is framed around a series of questions that move the user through map layers with just the level of complexity they chose to explore. For a quick look teachers and students can review a 3 or 4 sentence introduction on how the given map links to sea level and then launch straight into the interactive touchable map. For a little more in depth look they can listen to (or read) a one-minute recorded background on the data displayed in the map prior to launching in. For those who want more in depth understanding they can click to a one page background piece on the topic with links to further visualizations, videos and data. Regardless of the level of complexity selected each map is composed of clickable data allowing the user to fully explore the science. The different options for diving in allow teachers to differentiate the learning for either the subject being taught or the user level of the student group. The map layers also include a range of complexities. Basic questions like "What is sea level?" talk about shorelines, past sea levels and elevations beneath the sea. Questions like "Why does sea level change?" includes slightly more complex issues like the role of ocean temperature, and how that differs from ocean heat content. And what is the role of the warming atmosphere in sea level change? Questions about "What about sea level in the past?" can bring challenges for students who have

  2. The climate response of the Indo-Pacific warm pool to glacial sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Nezio, Pedro N.; Timmermann, Axel; Tierney, Jessica E.; Jin, Fei-Fei; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Rosenbloom, Nan; Mapes, Brian; Neale, Rich; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Montenegro, Alvaro

    2016-06-01

    Growing climate proxy evidence suggests that changes in sea level are important drivers of tropical climate change on glacial-interglacial timescales. These paleodata suggest that rainfall patterns over the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) are highly sensitive to the landmass configuration of the Maritime Continent and that lowered sea level contributed to large-scale drying during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, approximately 21,000 years B.P.). Using the Community Earth System Model Version 1.2 (CESM1), we investigate the mechanisms by which lowered sea level influenced the climate of the IPWP during the LGM. The CESM1 simulations show that, in agreement with previous hypotheses, changes in atmospheric circulation are initiated by the exposure of the Sunda and Sahul shelves. Ocean dynamical processes amplify the changes in atmospheric circulation by increasing the east-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean. The coupled mechanism driving this response is akin to the Bjerknes feedback and results in a large-scale climatic reorganization over the Indian Ocean with impacts extending from east Africa to the western tropical Pacific. Unlike exposure of the Sunda shelf, exposure of Sahul shelf and the associated changes in surface albedo play a key role because of the positive feedback. This mechanism could explain the pattern of dry (wet) eastern (western) Indian Ocean identified in climate proxies and LGM simulations. However, this response also requires a strengthened SST gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean, a pattern that is not evident in marine paleoreconstructions. Strategies to resolve this issue are discussed.

  3. An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Legeais, Jean-Francois; Ablain, Michael; Zawadzki, Lionel

    2018-01-01

    , the sea level ECV has been measured from space by different altimetry missions that have provided global and regional observations of sea level variations. As part of the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) (established in 2010), the Sea Level project (SL_cci) aimed...... to provide an accurate and homogeneous long-term satellite-based sea level record. At the end of the first phase of the project (2010-2013), an initial version (v1.1) of the sea level ECV was made available to users (Ablain et al., 2015). During the second phase of the project (2014-2017), improved altimeter...

  4. Influence of Climate Change and Trophic Coupling across Four Trophic Levels in the Celtic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauria, Valentina; Attrill, Martin J.; Pinnegar, John K.; Brown, Andrew; Edwards, Martin; Votier, Stephen C.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect ‘bottom-up’ climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986–2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66±0.02°C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group) and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = −0.305±0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = −0.410±0.193). Seabird demographics showed complex species–specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314±0.014) as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = −0.144±0.05). Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea), emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales. PMID:23091621

  5. Influence of climate change and trophic coupling across four trophic levels in the Celtic Sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Lauria

    Full Text Available Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect 'bottom-up' climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986-2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO, the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66 ± 0.02 °C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = -0.305 ± 0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = -0.410 ± 0.193. Seabird demographics showed complex species-specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314 ± 0.014 as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = -0.144 ± 0.05. Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea, emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales.

  6. Causes for contemporary regional sea level changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stammer, Detlef; Cazenave, Anny; Ponte, Rui M; Tamisiea, Mark E

    2013-01-01

    Regional sea level changes can deviate substantially from those of the global mean, can vary on a broad range of timescales, and in some regions can even lead to a reversal of long-term global mean sea level trends. The underlying causes are associated with dynamic variations in the ocean circulation as part of climate modes of variability and with an isostatic adjustment of Earth's crust to past and ongoing changes in polar ice masses and continental water storage. Relative to the coastline, sea level is also affected by processes such as earthquakes and anthropogenically induced subsidence. Present-day regional sea level changes appear to be caused primarily by natural climate variability. However, the imprint of anthropogenic effects on regional sea level-whether due to changes in the atmospheric forcing or to mass variations in the system-will grow with time as climate change progresses, and toward the end of the twenty-first century, regional sea level patterns will be a superposition of climate variability modes and natural and anthropogenically induced static sea level patterns. Attribution and predictions of ongoing and future sea level changes require an expanded and sustained climate observing system.

  7. Evaluating model simulations of 20th century sea-level rise. Part 1: global mean sea-level change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Meyssignac, B.; Agosta, C.; Champollion, N.; Church, J.A.; Fettweis, X.; Ligtenberg, S.R.M.; Marzeion, B.; Melet, A.; Palmer, M.D.; Richter, K.; Roberts, C.D.; Spada, G.

    2017-01-01

    Sea level change is one of the major consequences of climate change and is projected to affect coastal communities around the world. Here, global mean sea level (GMSL) change estimated by 12 climate models from phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate Model Intercomparison Project

  8. Atoll groundwater movement and its response to climatic and sea-level fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberle, Ferdinand; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Storlazzi, Curt

    2017-01-01

    Groundwater resources of low-lying atoll islands are threatened due to short-term and long-term changes in rainfall, wave climate, and sea level. A better understanding of how these forcings affect the limited groundwater resources was explored on Roi-Namur in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. As part of a 16-month study, a rarely recorded island-overwash event occurred and the island’s aquifer’s response was measured. The findings suggest that small-scale overwash events cause an increase in salinity of the freshwater lens that returns to pre-overwash conditions within one month. The overwash event is addressed in the context of climate-related local sea-level change, which suggests that overwash events and associated degradations in freshwater resources are likely to increase in severity in the future due to projected rises in sea level. Other forcings, such as severe rainfall events, were shown to have caused a sudden freshening of the aquifer, with salinity levels retuning to pre-rainfall levels within three months. Tidal forcing of the freshwater lens was observed in electrical resistivity profiles, high-resolution conductivity, groundwater-level well measurements and through submarine groundwater discharge calculations. Depth-specific geochemical pore water measurements further assessed and confirmed the distinct boundaries between fresh and saline water masses in the aquifer. The identification of the freshwater lens’ saline boundaries is essential for a quantitative evaluation of the aquifers freshwater resources and help understand how these resources may be impacted by climate change and anthropogenic activities.

  9. Atoll Groundwater Movement and Its Response to Climatic and Sea-Level Fluctuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferdinand K. J. Oberle

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater resources of low-lying atoll islands are threatened due to short-term and long-term changes in rainfall, wave climate, and sea level. A better understanding of how these forcings affect the limited groundwater resources was explored on Roi-Namur in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. As part of a 16-month study, a rarely recorded island-overwash event occurred and the island’s aquifer’s response was measured. The findings suggest that small-scale overwash events cause an increase in salinity of the freshwater lens that returns to pre-overwash conditions within one month. The overwash event is addressed in the context of climate-related local sea-level change, which suggests that overwash events and associated degradations in freshwater resources are likely to increase in severity in the future due to projected rises in sea level. Other forcings, such as severe rainfall events, were shown to have caused a sudden freshening of the aquifer, with salinity levels retuning to pre-rainfall levels within three months. Tidal forcing of the freshwater lens was observed in electrical resistivity profiles, high-resolution conductivity, groundwater-level well measurements and through submarine groundwater discharge calculations. Depth-specific geochemical pore water measurements further assessed and confirmed the distinct boundaries between fresh and saline water masses in the aquifer. The identification of the freshwater lens’ saline boundaries is essential for a quantitative evaluation of the aquifers freshwater resources and help understand how these resources may be impacted by climate change and anthropogenic activities.

  10. Impacts of climate change and sea level rise to Danish near shore ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vestergaard, P.

    2001-01-01

    Salt marshes and sand dunes are important types of coastal, terrestrial nature, which like other terrestrial ecosystems will be sensible to the future changes in climate, which have been predicted. Due to the processes acting in their morphogenesis and in the development and composition of their ecosystems, they will not least be influenced by sea level rise. Especially a strong impact of a sea level rise of about 50 cm (midrange of the projected global sea level rise) for the next century can be expected on Danish salt marshes, considering their limited vertical range (50-100 cm). (LN)

  11. Roles of Sea Level and Climate Change in the Development of Holocene Deltaic Sequences in the Yellow Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, J.; Milliman, J. D.

    2002-12-01

    Both post-glacial sea-level and climatic changes are preserved in the the shallow, low gradient, sediment-dominated Yellow Sea. As a result of rapid flooding during melt-water pulse (MWP) 1A, 14.3-14.1 ka BP, sea level reached the southern edge of the North Yellow Sea (NYS), and after MWP-1B (11.6-11.4 ka BP) sea level entered the Bohai Sea. The first major Yellow River-derived deltaic deposit formed in the NYS during decelerated transgression following MWP-1B and increased river discharge in response to re-intensification of the summer monsoon about 11 ka cal BP. A second subaqueous delta formed in the South Yellow Sea about 9-7 ka BP during decelerated transgression after MWP-1C flooding and in response to the southern shift of the Yellow River mouth. The modern subaqueous and subaerial deltas in the west Bahai Gulf and (to a lesser extent) along the Jiangus coast have formed during the modern sea-level highstand. These changing Holocene patterns are most clearly illustrated by a short film clip.

  12. Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goelzer, Heiko; Huybrechts, Philippe; Marie-France, Loutre; Fichefet, Thierry

    2016-01-01

    As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG, ∼130 to 115kyrgBP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial

  13. Transmission of climate, sea-level, and tectonic singals across river systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forzoni, A.

    2015-01-01

    This thesis investigates the impact of climatic, tectonic, and sea-level changes (external forcing) on river systems (source-to-sink) and how these changes are recorded in the stratigraphic record. It describes a newly developed numerical tool (PaCMod) to simulate the complex fluvial system sediment

  14. New evidence for "far-field" Holocene sea level oscillations and links to global climate records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, N. D.; Welsh, K. J.; Clark, T. R.; Feng, Y.-x.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Zhao, J.-x.

    2018-04-01

    Rising sea level in the coming century is of significant concern, yet predicting relative sea level change in response to eustatic sea level variability is complex. Potential analogues are provided by the recent geological past but, until recently, many sea level reconstructions have been limited to millennial scale interpretations due to age uncertainties and paucity in proxy derived records. Here we present a sea level history for the tectonically stable "far-field" Great Barrier Reef, Australia, derived from 94 high precision uranium-thorium dates of sub-fossil coral microatolls. Our results provide evidence for at least two periods of relative sea level instability during the Holocene. These sea level oscillations are broadly synchronous with Indo-Pacific negative sea surface temperature anomalies, rapid global cooling events and glacial advances. We propose that the pace and magnitude of these oscillations are suggestive of eustatic/thermosteric processes operating in conjunction with regional climatic controls.

  15. Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P. C. D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, C.

    2003-01-01

    Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981–1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981–1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993–1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system. PMID:14576277

  16. Sea level rise along Malaysian coasts due to the climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Tay, Tzewei

    2015-04-01

    Malaysia consists of two major parts, a mainland on the Peninsular Malaysia and the East Malaysia on the Borneo Island. Their surrounding waters connect the Andaman Sea located northeast of the Indian Ocean to the Celebes Sea in the western tropical Pacific Ocean through the southern East Sea of Vietnam/South China Sea. As a result, inter-annual sea level in the Malaysian waters is governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. We estimated sea level rise (SLR) rate in the domain using tide gauge records often being gappy. To reconstruct the missing data, two methods are used: (i) correlating sea level with climate indices El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and (ii) filling the gap using records of neighboring tide gauges. Latest vertical land movements have been acquired to derive geocentric SLR rates. Around the Peninsular Malaysia, geocentric SLR rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia during 1986-2011 are found to be 3.9±3.3 mm/year and 4.2 ± 2.5 mm/year, respectively; while in the East Malaysia waters the rate during 1988-2011 is 6.3 ± 4.0 mm/year. These rates are arguably higher than global tendency for the same periods. For the overlapping period 1993-2011, the rates are consistent with those obtained using satellite altimetry.

  17. Estuarine Response to River Flow and Sea-Level Rise under Future Climate Change and Human Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Voisin, Nathalie; Copping, Andrea E.

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the response of river flow and estuarine hydrodynamics to climate change, land-use/land-cover change (LULC), and sea-level rise is essential to managing water resources and stress on living organisms under these changing conditions. This paper presents a modeling study using a watershed hydrology model and an estuarine hydrodynamic model, in a one-way coupling, to investigate the estuarine hydrodynamic response to sea-level rise and change in river flow due to the effect of future climate and LULC changes in the Snohomish River estuary, Washington, USA. A set of hydrodynamic variables, including salinity intrusion points, average water depth, and salinity of the inundated area, were used to quantify the estuarine response to river flow and sea-level rise. Model results suggest that salinity intrusion points in the Snohomish River estuary and the average salinity of the inundated areas are a nonlinear function of river flow, although the average water depth in the inundated area is approximately linear with river flow. Future climate changes will shift salinity intrusion points further upstream under low flow conditions and further downstream under high flow conditions. In contrast, under the future LULC change scenario, the salinity intrusion point will shift downstream under both low and high flow conditions, compared to present conditions. The model results also suggest that the average water depth in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise but at a slower rate, and the average salinity in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise; however, the response of salinity intrusion points in the river to sea-level rise is strongly nonlinear.

  18. Non-linear response of the Golo River system, Corsica, France, to Late Quaternary climatic and sea level variations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forzoni, A.; Storms, J.E.A.; Reimann, T.; Moreau, J.; Jouet, G.

    2015-01-01

    Disentangling the impact of climatic and sea level variations on fluvio-deltaic stratigraphy is still an outstanding question in sedimentary geology and geomorphology. We used the Golo River system, Corsica, France, as a natural laboratory to investigate the impact of Late Quaternary climate and sea

  19. Adapting to rates versus amounts of climate change: a case of adaptation to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shayegh, Soheil; Moreno-Cruz, Juan; Caldeira, Ken

    2016-10-01

    Adaptation is the process of adjusting to climate change in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities associated with it. Most adaptation strategies are designed to adjust to a new climate state. However, despite our best efforts to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, climate is likely to continue changing far into the future. Here, we show how considering rates of change affects the projected optimal adaptation strategy. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal investment in the face of continued sea-level rise, presenting a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among physical and economic factors governing coastal development decisions such as rate of sea-level rise, land slope, discount rate, and depreciation rate. This model shows that the determination of optimal investment strategies depends on taking into account future rates of sea-level rise, as well as social and political constraints. This general approach also applies to the development of improved strategies to adapt to ongoing trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Adaptation to some amount of change instead of adaptation to ongoing rates of change may produce inaccurate estimates of damages to the social systems and their ability to respond to external pressures.

  20. Sea Level Change and Coastal Climate Services: The Way Forward

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    le Cozannet, G.; Nicholls, R.J.; Hinkel, J.; Sweet, W.V.; McInnes, K.L.; Van de Wal, R.S.E.; Slangen, A.B.A.; Lowe, J.A.; White, K.D.

    2017-01-01

    For many climate change impacts such as drought and heat waves, global and nationalframeworks for climate services are providing ever more critical support to adaptation activities.Coastal zones are especially in need of climate services for adaptation, as they are increasinglythreatened by sea

  1. Sea level rise : A literature survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Essink, G.H.P.

    1992-01-01

    In order to assess the impact of sea level rise on Water Management, it is useful to understand the mechanisrns that determine the level of the sea. In this study, a literature survey is executed to analyze these mechanisms. Climate plays a centra! role in these mechanisms, Climate mainly changes

  2. Interactive Sea Level Rise App & Online Viewer Offers Deep Dive Into Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turrin, M.; Porter, D. F.; Ryan, W. B. F.; Pfirman, S. L.

    2015-12-01

    Climate has captured the attention of the public but its complexity can cause interested individuals to turn to opinion pieces, news articles or blogs for information. These platforms often oversimplify or present heavily interpreted or personalized perspectives. Data interactives are an extremely effective way to explore complex geoscience topics like climate, opening windows of understanding for the user that have previously been closed. Layering data onto maps through programs like GeoMapApp and the Earth Observer App has allowed users to dig directly into science data, but with only limited scaffolding. The interactive 'Polar Explorer: Sea Level Explorer App' provides a richly layered introduction to a range of topics connected to sea level rise. Each map is supported with a pop up and a short audio file of supplementary material, and an information page that includes the data source and links for further reading. This type of learning platform works well for both the formal and informal learning environment. Through science data displayed as map visualizations the user is invited into topics through an introductory question, such as "Why does sea level change?" After clicking on that question the user moves to a second layer of questions exploring the role of the ocean, the atmosphere, the contribution from the world's glaciers, world's ice sheets and other less obvious considerations such as the role of post-glacial rebound, or the mining of groundwater. Each question ends in a data map, or series of maps, that offer opportunities to interact with the topic. Under the role of the ocean 'Internal Ocean Temperature' offers the user a chance to touch to see temperature values spatially over the world's ocean, or to click through a data series starting at the ocean surface and diving to 5000 meters of depth showing how temperature changes with depth. Other sections, like the role of deglaciation of North America, allow the user to click and see change through

  3. Sea level change and coastal climate services : The way forward

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Nicholls, Robert J.; Hinkel, Jochen; Sweet, William V.; McInnes, Kathleen L.; Van de Wal, Roderik S.W.; Slangen, Aimée B.A.; Lowe, Jason A.; White, Kathleen D.

    2017-01-01

    For many climate change impacts such as drought and heat waves, global and national frameworks for climate services are providing ever more critical support to adaptation activities. Coastal zones are especially in need of climate services for adaptation, as they are increasingly threatened by sea

  4. Beyond just sea-level rise: Considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osland, Michael J.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Day, Richard H.; Gabler, Christopher A.; Stagg, Camille L.; Grace, James B.

    2016-01-01

    Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate-change related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea-level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands.

  5. Beyond just sea-level rise: considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osland, Michael J; Enwright, Nicholas M; Day, Richard H; Gabler, Christopher A; Stagg, Camille L; Grace, James B

    2016-01-01

    Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate change-related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea-level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  6. Perceptions of Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Possible Consequences Relate Mainly to Self-Valuation of Science Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Pittfield, Taryn; Jeitner, Christian

    2016-05-01

    This study examines perceptions of climate change and sea level rise in New Jersey residents in 2012 and 2014. Different surveys have shown declines in interest and concern about climate change and sea level rise. Climate change and increasing temperatures have an anthropogenic cause, which relates to energy use, making it important to examine whether people believe that it is occurring. In late 2012 New Jersey experienced Super storm Sandy, one of the worst hurricanes in its history, followed by public discussion and media coverage of stronger more frequent storms due to climate change. Using structured interviews, we tested the null hypotheses that there were no differences in perceptions of 1260 interviewees as a function of year of the survey, age, gender, years of education, and self-evaluation of science knowledge (on a scale of 1 to 5). In 2012 460 of 639 (72%) rated "global warming occurring" as "certain" (#4) or "very certain" (#5) compared with 453 of 621 (73%) in 2014. For "due to human activities" the numbers of "certain" or "very certain" were 71% in 2012, and 67% in 2014 and for sea level rise the numbers were 64% and 70%. There were some inconsistent between-year differences with higher ratings in 2012 for 3 outcomes and higher ratings in 2014 for 5 outcomes. However, for 25 questions relative to climate change, sea level rise, and the personal and ecological effects of sea level rise, self-evaluation of science knowledge, independent of years of education, was the factor that entered 23 of the models, accounting for the most variability in ratings. People who believed they had a "high knowledge" (#4) or "very high knowledge" (#5) of science rated all issues as more important than did those people who rated their own scientific knowledge as average or below average.

  7. Integrative study of the mean sea level and its components

    CERN Document Server

    Champollion, Nicolas; Paul, Frank; Benveniste, Jérôme

    2017-01-01

    This volume presents the most recent results of global mean sea level variations over the satellite altimetry era (starting in the early 1990s) and associated contributions, such as glaciers and ice sheets mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and land water storage changes. Sea level is one of the best indicators of global climate changes as it integrates the response of several components of the climate system to external forcing factors (including anthropogenic forcing) and internal climate variability. Providing long, accurate records of the sea level at global and regional scales and of the various components causing sea level changes is of crucial importance to improve our understanding of climate processes at work and to validate the climate models used for future projections. The Climate Change Initiative project of the European Space Agency has provided a first attempt to produce consistent and continuous space-based records for several climate parameters observable from space, among them sea level. Th...

  8. Assessing the impact of sea level rise due to climate change on seawater intrusion in Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, D T; Yamada, T; Ishidaira, H

    2018-03-01

    In the context of climate change, salinity intrusion into rivers has been, and will be, one of the most important issues for coastal water resources management. A combination of changes, including increased temperature, change in regional rainfall, especially sea level rise (SLR) related to climate change, will have significant impacts on this phenomenon. This paper presents the outcomes of a study conducted in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam (MKD) for evaluating the effect of sea water intrusion under a new SLR scenario. Salinity intrusion was simulated by one-dimensional (1D) modeling. The relative sea level projection was constructed corresponding to the RCP 6.0 emission scenario for MKD based on the statistical downscaling method. The sea level in 2050 is projected to increase from 25 cm to 30 cm compared to the baseline period (in 2000). Furthermore, the simulated results suggested that salinity greater than 4 g/l, which affects rice yield, will intrude up to 50-60 km into the river. Approximately 30,000 ha of agricultural area will be affected if the sea level rise is 30 cm.

  9. SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

    2015-07-10

    Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  10. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widlansky, Matthew J; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

    2015-09-01

    Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño-related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise.

  11. Combining Geography, Math, and Science to Teach Climate Change and Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldakowski, Ray; Johnson, Ashley

    2018-01-01

    This study examines the effectiveness of integrating geography into existing math and science curriculum to teach climate change and sea level rise. The desired outcome is to improve student performance in all three subjects. A sample of 120 fifth graders from three schools were taught the integrated curriculum over a period of two to three weeks.…

  12. Global change and the measurement of absolute sea-level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamante, John M.; Pyle, Thomas E.; Carter, William E.; Scherer, Wolfgang

    To quantify properly the long-term response of sea-level to climate change, land motions must be separated from the apparent or relative sea-level change recorded by conventional tide/sea-level gauges. Here we present a concept for global measurement of the true or “absolute” sea-level change, which combines recent advances in space-based geodetic techniques with plans for a global sea-level network under the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Data from initial feasibility tests show that land motion, due to global (plate tectonic), regional (glacial rebound), or local (fluid withdrawal) effects, can probably be measured to ±1cm (on a single measurement basis) by an innovative combination of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Global Positioning System (GPS) tevhniques. By making repeated observations of position at a number of tide gauges using portable, economical GPS receivers in a differential mode relative to the fewer, more stable, but more expensive VLBI observatories, it will be possible to subtract land motion from the relative sea-level signal. Decadal to century scale trends at the 1-2mm y -1 level will be resolvable in the sea-level and vertical land motion time series within about a decade. Detection of subsidence or uplift at specific gauges will allow correction for land motion or deletion of bad data when computing regional or global, i.e. eustatic, sea-level changes. In addition to their applications in oceanography and climate studies, such data will test models by Peltier and other that relate mantle viscosity and deglaciation history to present rates of crustal subsidence or uplift. If the predicted crustal motions are confirmed, we can also have more confidence in the use of historical tide/sea-level gauge records in retrospective studies of sea-level change related to climate variability on decadal or longer time scales. It is concluded that as few as one-third (about 100) of the total number of tide/sea-level gauges (250

  13. Improved sea level record over the satellite altimetry era (1993-2010) from the Climate Change Initiative project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ablain, M.; Cazenave, A.; Larnicol, G.

    2015-01-01

    .6 and 1-2 mm year(-1)). Similarly, interannual global mean sea level variations (currently uncertain to 2-3 mm) need to be monitored with better accuracy. In this paper, we present various data improvements achieved within the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) project on "Sea...

  14. Sea level hazards: Altimetric monitoring of tsunamis and sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlington, Benjamin Dillon

    Whether on the short timescale of an impending tsunami or the much longer timescale of climate change-driven sea level rise, the threat stemming from rising and inundating ocean waters is a great concern to coastal populations. Timely and accurate observations of potentially dangerous changes in sea level are vital in determining the precautionary steps that need to be taken in order to protect coastal communities. While instruments from the past have provided in situ measurements of sea level at specific locations across the globe, satellites can be used to provide improved spatial and temporal sampling of the ocean in addition to producing more accurate measurements. Since 1993, satellite altimetry has provided accurate measurements of sea surface height (SSH) with near-global coverage. Not only have these measurements led to the first definitive estimates of global mean sea level rise, satellite altimetry observations have also been used to detect tsunami waves in the open ocean where wave amplitudes are relatively small, a vital step in providing early warning to those potentially affected by the impending tsunami. The use of satellite altimetry to monitor two specific sea level hazards is examined in this thesis. The first section will focus on the detection of tsunamis in the open ocean for the purpose of providing early warning to coastal inhabitants. The second section will focus on estimating secular trends using satellite altimetry data with the hope of improving our understanding of future sea level change. Results presented here will show the utility of satellite altimetry for sea level monitoring and will lay the foundation for further advancement in the detection of the two sea level hazards considered.

  15. Holocene sea-level fluctuation in the southern hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isla, Federico Ignacio

    If rising sea levels dominate in the northern hemisphere (NH), falling or fluctuating sea levels predominate in the southern hemisphere (SH). Endogenic processes (tectonics, isostasy or geoidal changes) could explain local or regional mean sea level (MSL) fluctuations but not an hemispherical one. Evidence from South America, Africa, Antarctica, Australia and the Pacific and Indian Oceans suggest that the Holocene transgression rose above the present MSL, in higher latitudes before the tropics. By plotting latitude against the age of MSL arrival at present coasts, good correlation is observed. Oceanic salinity mixing has been already proposed to explain this mid-Holocene sea-level fluctuation. Climate could be the only factor responsible for this hemisphere-wide behavior of MSL. It has been suggested previously that the climate of the SH precedes that of the NH by 3000 years. The climatic optimum, or maximum warmth, occurred predominantly about 6000 BP in the NH, but about 10-9000 BP in the SH. Short-term climatic effects on the sea level (monsoons, southern oscillation/El Niño phenomena) should have significant occurrences during the past in the windiest oceanic hemisphere. This latitudinal trend in former MSL should be considered when using shorelines as reference points for measuring vertical crustal movements.

  16. Adapting to Rising Sea Level: A Florida Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Randall W.

    2009-07-01

    Global climate change and concomitant rising sea level will have a profound impact on Florida's coastal and marine systems. Sea-level rise will increase erosion of beaches, cause saltwater intrusion into water supplies, inundate coastal marshes and other important habitats, and make coastal property more vulnerable to erosion and flooding. Yet most coastal areas are currently managed under the premise that sea-level rise is not significant and the shorelines are static or can be fixed in place by engineering structures. The new reality of sea-level rise and extreme weather due to climate change requires a new style of planning and management to protect resources and reduce risk to humans. Scientists must: (1) assess existing coastal vulnerability to address short term management issues and (2) model future landscape change and develop sustainable plans to address long term planning and management issues. Furthermore, this information must be effectively transferred to planners, managers, and elected officials to ensure their decisions are based upon the best available information. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the details of rising sea level and climate change, development decisions are being made today which commit public and private investment in real estate and associated infrastructure. With a design life of 30 yrs to 75 yrs or more, many of these investments are on a collision course with rising sea level and the resulting impacts will be significant. In the near term, the utilization of engineering structures may be required, but these are not sustainable and must ultimately yield to "managed withdrawal" programs if higher sea-level elevations or rates of rise are forthcoming. As an initial step towards successful adaptation, coastal management and planning documents (i.e., comprehensive plans) must be revised to include reference to climate change and rising sea-level.

  17. Assessment of Hammocks (Petenes) Resilience to Sea Level Rise Due to Climate Change in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posada Vanegas, Gregorio; de Jong, Bernardus H. J.

    2016-01-01

    There is a pressing need to assess resilience of coastal ecosystems against sea level rise. To develop appropriate response strategies against future climate disturbances, it is important to estimate the magnitude of disturbances that these ecosystems can absorb and to better understand their underlying processes. Hammocks (petenes) coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to sea level rise linked to climate change; their vulnerability is mainly due to its close relation with the sea through underground drainage in predominantly karstic soils. Hammocks are biologically important because of their high diversity and restricted distribution. This study proposes a strategy to assess resilience of this coastal ecosystem when high-precision data are scarce. Approaches and methods used to derive ecological resilience maps of hammocks are described and assessed. Resilience models were built by incorporating and weighting appropriate indicators of persistence to assess hammocks resilience against flooding due to climate change at “Los Petenes Biosphere Reserve”, in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. According to the analysis, 25% of the study area is highly resilient (hot spots), whereas 51% has low resilience (cold spots). The most significant hot spot clusters of resilience were located in areas distant to the coastal zone, with indirect tidal influence, and consisted mostly of hammocks surrounded by basin mangrove and floodplain forest. This study revealed that multi-criteria analysis and the use of GIS for qualitative, semi-quantitative and statistical spatial analyses constitute a powerful tool to develop ecological resilience maps of coastal ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, even when high-precision data are not available. This method can be applied in other sites to help develop resilience analyses and decision-making processes for management and conservation of coastal areas worldwide. PMID:27611802

  18. Climate in France during the 21. century - Regionalized scenarios - Reference indices for the metropolitan region - Evolution at sea level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peings, Yannick; Planton, Serge; Deque, Michel; Jamous, Marc; Le Treut, Herve; Gallee, Hubert; Li, Laurent; Jouzel, J.

    2011-01-01

    After some comments on climate modelling (models, scenarios, uncertainties, regional predictions), the first part reports the study of several temperature indices (minimum, average and maximum daily temperature, number of days with abnormally high or low temperature, number of days of heat wave, number of days with negative temperatures, and so on.), precipitation indices (daily and extreme precipitations, dry periods, snow falls). It also discusses soil humidity index, strong wind index, river flow rate, and sea level. The second part reports simulation results for indices in metropolitan France according to the French Aladin-Climat, LMDZ and MAR models. The third volume reports evolutions and predictions of average sea level at the planet scale and along the French coasts, and discusses impacts related to sea level change (coast erosion, submersion, salt intrusion)

  19. Present day sea level changes: observation and causes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, A.

    2005-11-01

    Whereas sea level has changed little over the last 2000 years, it has risen at a rate of about 2 mm/year during the 20. century. This unexpected sea level rise has been attributed to the anthropogenic global warming, recorded over several decades. Sea level variations have been measured globally and precisely for about 12 years due to satellite altimeter missions Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1. These observations indicate a global mean sea level rise of about 3 mm/year since 1993, a value significantly larger than observed during previous decades. Recent observations have allowed us to quantify the various climatic factors contributing to observed sea level change: thermal expansion of sea water due to ocean warming, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in the land water reservoirs. A water budget based on these new observations allows us to partly explain the observed sea level rise. In particular, we show that the thermal expansion explains only 25% of the secular sea level rise as recorded by tide-gauges over the last 50 years, while it contributes about 50% of sea level rise observed over the last decade. Meanwhile, recent studies show that glacier and ice sheet melting could contribute the equivalent of 1 mm/year in sea level rise over the last decade. In addition, the high regional variability of sea level trends revealed by satellite altimetry is mainly due to thermal expansion. There is also an important decadal spatio-temporal variability in the ocean thermal expansion over the last 50 years, which seems to be controlled by natural climate fluctuations. We question for the first time the link between the decadal fluctuations in the ocean thermal expansion and in the land reservoirs, and indeed their climatic contribution to sea level change. Finally a preliminary analysis of GRACE spatial gravimetric observations over the oceans allows us to estimate the seasonal variations in mean sea level due to ocean water mass balance variations

  20. Late mid-Holocene sea-level oscillation: A possible cause

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, D. B.; Collins, E. S.

    Sea level oscillated between 5500 and 3500 years ago at Murrells Inlet, South Carolina, Chezzetcook and Baie Verte, Nova Scotia and Montmagny, Quebec. The oscillation is well constrained by foraminiferal marsh zonations in three locations and by diatoms in the fourth one. The implications are: (1) there was a eustatic sea-level oscillation of about 2-10 m in the late mid-Holocene on the southeast coast of North America (South Carolina to Quebec) that is not predicted by present geophysical models of relative sea-level change; (2) this oscillation coincides with oceanographic cooling on the east coast of Canada that we associate with melting ice; and (3) this sea- level oscillation/climatic event coincides exactly with the end of pyramid building in Egypt which is suggested to have resulted from a climate change (i.e. drought, cooling). This sea-level/climatic change is a prime example of feedback where climatic warming in the mid-Holocene promoted ice melt in the Arctic which subsequently caused climatic cooling by opening up Arctic channels releasing cold water into the Inner Labrador Current that continued to intensify until 4000 years ago. This sea-level event may also be the best way of measuring when the final ice melted since most estimates of the ages of the last melting are based on end moraine dates in the Arctic which may not coincide with when the last ice actually melted out, since there is no way of dating the final ice positions.

  1. XXI century projections of wind-wave conditions and sea-level rise in the Black sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polonsky, A.; Garmashov, A.; Fomin, V.; Valchev, N.; Trifonova, E.

    2012-04-01

    Projection of regional climate changes for XXI century is one of the priorities of EC environmental programme. Potential worsening of the waves' statistics, sea level rise and extreme surges are the principal negative consequences of the climate change for marine environment. That is why the main purpose of this presentation is to discuss the above issue for the Black sea region (with a strong focus to the south-west subregion because the maximum heights of waves exceeding 10 m occur just here) using output of several global coupled models (GCM) for XXI century, wave simulation, long-term observations of sea level and statistical techniques. First of all we tried to choose the best coupled model (s) simulated the Black sea climate change and variability using the control experiments for 20 century (203). The principal result is as follows. There is not one model which is simulating adequately even one atmospheric parameter for all seasons. Therefore we considered (for the climate projection) different outputs form various models. When it was possible we calculated also the ensemble mean projection for the selected model (s) and emission scenarios. To calculate the wave projection we used the output of SWAN model forced by the GCM wind projection for 2010 to 2100. To estimate the sea level rise in XXI century and future surges statistics we extrapolate the observed sea level rise tendencies, statistical relation between wave heights and sea level and wave scenarios. Results show that in general, the climate change in XXI century doesn't lead to the catastrophic change of the Black sea wind-wave statistics including the extreme waves in the S-W Black sea. The typical atmospheric pattern leading to the intense storm in the S-W Black sea is characterized by the persistent anticyclonic area to the North of the Black sea and cyclonic conditions in the Southern Black sea region. Such pressure pattern causes persistent and strong eastern or north-eastern wind which

  2. Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayol, J. M.; Marcos, M.

    2018-02-01

    This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low-lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi-model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter-annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind-waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.

  3. Upper Limit for Regional Sea Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2016-04-01

    With more than 150 million people living within 1 m of high tide future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (AR5 IPCC) noted that a 0.5 m rise in mean sea level will result in a dramatic increase the frequency of high water extremes - by an order of magnitude, or more in some regions. Thus the flood threat to the rapidly growing urban populations and associated infrastructure in coastal areas are major concerns for society. Hence, impact assessment, risk management, adaptation strategy and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on projections of mean sea level and crucially its low probability, high impact, upper range. With probabilistic approach we produce regional sea level projections taking into account large uncertainties associated with Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets contribution. We calculate the upper limit (as 95%) for regional sea level projections by 2100 with RCP8.5 scenario, suggesting that for the most coastlines upper limit will exceed the global upper limit of 1.8 m.

  4. Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Andrew C; Horton, Benjamin P; Donnelly, Jeffrey P; Mann, Michael E; Vermeer, Martin; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2011-07-05

    We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 y based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. Sea level then increased for 400 y at a rate of 0.6 mm/y, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/y, representing the steepest century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semiempirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.

  5. Sea level change: lessons from the geologic record

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    1995-01-01

    Rising sea level is potentially one of the most serious impacts of climatic change. Even a small sea level rise would have serious economic consequences because it would cause extensive damage to the world's coastal regions. Sea level can rise in the future because the ocean surface can expand due to warming and because polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers can melt, increasing the ocean's volume of water. Today, ice caps on Antarctica and Greenland contain 91 and 8 percent of the world's ice, respectively. The world's mountain glaciers together contain only about 1 percent. Melting all this ice would raise sea level about 80 meters. Although this extreme scenario is not expected, geologists know that sea level can rise and fall rapidly due to changing volume of ice on continents. For example, during the last ice age, about 18,000 years ago, continental ice sheets contained more than double the modem volume of ice. As ice sheets melted, sea level rose 2 to 3 meters per century, and possibly faster during certain times. During periods in which global climate was very warm, polar ice was reduced and sea level was higher than today.

  6. Contemporary sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazenave, Anny; Llovel, William

    2010-01-01

    Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes has considerably improved in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing observations have become available. Here we report on most recent results on contemporary sea level rise. We first present sea level observations from tide gauges over the twentieth century and from satellite altimetry since the early 1990s. We next discuss the most recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on timescales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion of the oceans, land ice mass loss, and land water-storage change. We show that for the 1993-2007 time span, the sum of climate-related contributions (2.85 +/- 0.35 mm year(-1)) is only slightly less than altimetry-based sea level rise (3.3 +/- 0.4 mm year(-1)): approximately 30% of the observed rate of rise is due to ocean thermal expansion and approximately 55% results from land ice melt. Recent acceleration in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets increases the latter contribution up to 80% for the past five years. We also review the main causes of regional variability in sea level trends: The dominant contribution results from nonuniform changes in ocean thermal expansion.

  7. Sea-level and deep-sea-temperature variability over the past 5.3 million years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohling, E J; Foster, G L; Grant, K M; Marino, G; Roberts, A P; Tamisiea, M E; Williams, F

    2014-04-24

    Ice volume (and hence sea level) and deep-sea temperature are key measures of global climate change. Sea level has been documented using several independent methods over the past 0.5 million years (Myr). Older periods, however, lack such independent validation; all existing records are related to deep-sea oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data that are influenced by processes unrelated to sea level. For deep-sea temperature, only one continuous high-resolution (Mg/Ca-based) record exists, with related sea-level estimates, spanning the past 1.5 Myr. Here we present a novel sea-level reconstruction, with associated estimates of deep-sea temperature, which independently validates the previous 0-1.5 Myr reconstruction and extends it back to 5.3 Myr ago. We find that deep-sea temperature and sea level generally decreased through time, but distinctly out of synchrony, which is remarkable given the importance of ice-albedo feedbacks on the radiative forcing of climate. In particular, we observe a large temporal offset during the onset of Plio-Pleistocene ice ages, between a marked cooling step at 2.73 Myr ago and the first major glaciation at 2.15 Myr ago. Last, we tentatively infer that ice sheets may have grown largest during glacials with more modest reductions in deep-sea temperature.

  8. A new Arctic 25-year Altimetric Sea-level Record (1992-2016) and Initial look at Arctic Sea Level Budget Closure

    OpenAIRE

    Andersen O.B., Passaro M., Benveniste J., Piccioni G.

    2016-01-01

    A new initiative within the ESA Sea Level Climate Change initiative (SL-cci) framework to improve the Arctic sea level record has been initiated as a combined effort to reprocess and retrack past altimetry to create a 25-year combined sea level record for sea level research studies. One of the objectives is to retracked ERS-2 dataset for the high latitudes based on the ALES retracking algorithm through adapting the ALES retracker for retracking of specular surfaces (leads). Secondly a reproce...

  9. Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillett, Nathan P; Zwiers, Francis W; Weaver, Andrew J; Stott, Peter A

    2003-03-20

    Greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulphate aerosols--the main human influences on climate--have been shown to have had a detectable effect on surface air temperature, the temperature of the free troposphere and stratosphere and ocean temperature. Nevertheless, the question remains as to whether human influence is detectable in any variable other than temperature. Here we detect an influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols in observations of winter sea-level pressure (December to February), using combined simulations from four climate models. We find increases in sea-level pressure over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, southern Europe and North Africa, and decreases in the polar regions and the North Pacific Ocean, in response to human influence. Our analysis also indicates that the climate models substantially underestimate the magnitude of the sea-level pressure response. This discrepancy suggests that the upward trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (corresponding to strengthened westerlies in the North Atlantic region), as simulated in a number of global warming scenarios, may be too small, leading to an underestimation of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.

  10. Greenhouse warming and changes in sea level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1989-01-01

    It is likely that the anticipated warming due to the effect of increasing concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will lead to a further and faster rise in world mean sea level. There are many processes in the climate system controlling sea level, but the most important

  11. Measuring progress of the global sea level observing system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth, Philip L.; Aarup, Thorkild; Merrifield, Mark; Mitchum, Gary T.; Le Provost, Christian

    Sea level is such a fundamental parameter in the sciences of oceanography geophysics, and climate change, that in the mid-1980s, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) established the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). GLOSS was to improve the quantity and quality of data provided to the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), and thereby, data for input to studies of long-term sea level change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It would also provide the key data needed for international programs, such as the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and later, the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme (CLIVAR).GLOSS is now one of the main observation components of the Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) of IOC and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Progress and deficiencies in GLOSS were presented in July to the 22nd IOC Assembly at UNESCO in Paris and are contained in the GLOSS Assessment Report (GAR) [IOC, 2003a].

  12. Climate Adaptation and Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA supports the development and maintenance of water utility infrastructure across the country. Included in this effort is helping the nation’s water utilities anticipate, plan for, and adapt to risks from flooding, sea level rise, and storm surge.

  13. A new phase in the production of quality-controlled sea level data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quartly, Graham D.; Legeais, Jean François; Ablain, Michaël

    2017-01-01

    Sea level is an essential climate variable (ECV) that has a direct effect on many people through inundations of coastal areas, and it is also a clear indicator of climate changes due to external forcing factors and internal climate variability. Regional patterns of sea level change inform us...... and predict these phenomena, and thereby alleviate some of the environmental conditions associated with them. All such studies rely on the existence of long-term consistent high-accuracy datasets of sea level. The Climate Change Initiative (CCI) of the European Space Agency was established in 2010 to provide...... improved time series of some ECVs, including sea level, with the purpose of providing such data openly to all to enable the widest possible utilisation of such data. Now in its second phase, the Sea Level CCI project (SL-cci) merges data from nine different altimeter missions in a clear, consistent...

  14. Examining the interplay of climate and low amplitude sea-level change on the distribution and volume of massive dolomitization: Zebbag Formation, Cretaceous, Southern Tunisia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Newport, Richard; Hollis, Cathy; Bodin, Stéphane

    2017-01-01

    During the Cretaceous, a humid global climate, calcitic seas, high relative sea-level and low amplitude changes in relative sea-level largely prevented large-scale dolomitization in many carbonate successions. However, the well-exposed shallow-water carbonate sediments of the Upper Albian–Lower T...

  15. Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

    2016-01-01

    Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections. PMID:26903648

  16. Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

    2016-03-08

    Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28-56 cm, 37-77 cm, and 57-131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The "constrained extrapolation" approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.

  17. Changing Sea Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugh, David

    2004-04-01

    Flooding of coastal communities is one of the major causes of environmental disasters world-wide. This textbook explains how sea levels are affected by astronomical tides, weather effects, ocean circulation and climate trends. Based on courses taught by the author in the U.K. and the U.S., it is aimed at undergraduate students at all levels, with non-basic mathematics being confined to Appendices and a website http://publishing.cambridge.org/resources/0521532183/.

  18. Revisiting global mean sea level budget closure : Preliminary results from an integrative study within ESA's Climate Change Initiative -Sea level Budget Closure-Climate Change Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palanisamy, H.; Cazenave, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    The global mean sea level budget is revisited over two time periods: the entire altimetry era, 1993-2015 and the Argo/GRACE era, 2003-2015 using the version '0' of sea level components estimated by the SLBC-CCI teams. The SLBC-CCI is an European Space Agency's project on sea level budget closure using CCI products. Over the entire altimetry era, the sea level budget was performed as the sum of steric and mass components that include contributions from total land water storage, glaciers, ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) and total water vapor content. Over the Argo/GRACE era, it was performed as the sum of steric and GRACE based ocean mass. Preliminary budget analysis performed over the altimetry era (1993-2015) results in a trend value of 2.83 mm/yr. On comparison with the observed altimetry-based global mean sea level trend over the same period (3.03 ± 0.5 mm/yr), we obtain a residual of 0.2 mm/yr. In spite of a residual of 0.2 mm/yr, the sea level budget result obtained over the altimetry era is very promising as this has been performed using the version '0' of the sea level components. Furthermore, uncertainties are not yet included in this study as uncertainty estimation for each sea level component is currently underway. Over the Argo/GRACE era (2003-2015), the trend estimated from the sum of steric and GRACE ocean mass amounts to 2.63 mm/yr while that observed by satellite altimetry is 3.37 mm/yr, thereby leaving a residual of 0.7 mm/yr. Here an ensemble GRACE ocean mass data (mean of various available GRACE ocean mass data) was used for the estimation. Using individual GRACE data results in a residual range of 0.5 mm/yr -1.1 mm/yr. Investigations are under way to determine the cause of the vast difference between the observed sea level and the sea level obtained from steric and GRACE ocean mass. One main suspect is the impact of GRACE data gaps on sea level budget analysis due to lack of GRACE data over several months since 2011. The current action plan

  19. Vulnerability of marginal seas to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomis, Damia; Jordà, Gabriel

    2017-04-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is a serious thread for coastal areas and has a potential negative impact on society and economy. SLR can lead for instance to land loss, beach reduction, increase of the damage of marine storms on coastal infrastructures and to the salinization of underground water streams. It is well acknowledged that future SLR will be inhomogeneous across the globe, with regional differences of up to 100% with respect to global mean sea level (GMSL). Several studies have addressed the projections of SLR at regional scale, but most of them are based on global climate models (GCMs) that have a relatively coarse spatial resolution (>1°). In marginal seas this has proven to be a strong limitation, as their particular configurations require spatial resolutions that are not reachable by present GCMs. A paradigmatic case is the Mediterranean Sea, connected to the global ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar, a narrow passage of 14 km width. The functioning of the Mediterranean Sea involves a variety of processes including an overturning circulation, small-scale convection and a rich mesoscale field. Moreover, the long-term evolution of Mediterranean sea level has been significantly different from the global mean during the last decades. The observations of present climate and the projections for the next decades have lead some authors to hypothesize that the particular characteristics of the basin could allow Mediterranean mean sea level to evolve differently from the global mean. Assessing this point is essential to undertake proper adaptation strategies for the largely populated Mediterranean coastal areas. In this work we apply a new approach that combines regional and global projections to analyse future SLR. In a first step we focus on the quantification of the expected departures of future Mediterranean sea level from GMSL evolution and on the contribution of different processes to these departures. As a result we find that, in spite of its particularities

  20. Biogeochemical analysis of ancient Pacific Cod bone suggests Hg bioaccumulation was linked to paleo sea level rise and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maribeth S. Murray

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Deglaciation at the end of the Pleistocene initiated major changes in ocean circulation and distribution. Within a brief geological time, large areas of land were inundated by sea-level rise and today global sea level is 120 m above its minimum stand during the last glacial maximum. This was the era of modern sea shelf formation; climate change caused coastal plain flooding and created broad continental shelves with innumerable consequences to marine and terrestrial ecosystems and human populations. In Alaska, the Bering Sea nearly doubled in size and stretches of coastline to the south were flooded, with regional variability in the timing and extent of submergence. Here we suggest how past climate change and coastal flooding are linked to mercury bioaccumulation that could have had profound impacts on past human populations and that, under conditions of continued climate warming, may have future impacts. Biogeochemical analysis of total mercury (tHg and 13C/15N ratios in the bone collagen of archaeologically recovered Pacific Cod (Gadus macrocephalus bone shows high levels of tHg during early/mid-Holocene. This pattern cannot be linked to anthropogenic activity or to food web trophic changes, but may result from natural phenomena such as increases in productivity, carbon supply and coastal flooding driven by glacial melting and sea-level rise. The coastal flooding could have led to increased methylation of Hg in newly submerged terrestrial land and vegetation. Methylmercury is bioaccumulated through aquatic food webs with attendant consequences for the health of fish and their consumers, including people. This is the first study of tHg levels in a marine species from the Gulf of Alaska to provide a time series spanning nearly the entire Holocene and we propose that past coastal flooding resulting from climate change had the potential to input significant quantities of Hg into marine food webs and subsequently to human consumers.

  1. Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Carson, M.; Katsman, C.A.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; Köhl, A.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.; Stammer, D.

    2014-01-01

    We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 (st) century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined

  2. The analysis of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level indicators: Reconstructing sea-level in a warmer world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Raymo, M.E.; Vacchi, M.; Lorscheid, T; Stocchi, P.; Gómez-Pujolf, L.; Harris, D.L.; Casella, E.; O'Leary, M.J.; Hearty, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    The Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128–116 ka) is among the most studied past periods in Earth's history. The climate at that time was warmer than today, primarily due to different orbital conditions, with smaller ice sheets and higher sea-level. Field evidence for MIS 5e sea-level was reported from

  3. Modelling regional sea-level changes in recent past and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.

    2012-01-01

    Sea-level change is one of the most important consequences of a warming climate, affecting many densely populated coastal communities. To improve coastal management and the planning of flood defences, information on the future development of sea-level rise is needed. However, sea-level rise is not

  4. Flooded! An Investigation of Sea-Level Rise in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Brandon; Hamilton, Cheri

    2011-01-01

    Explore how melting ice sheets affect global sea levels. Sea-level rise (SLR) is a rise in the water level of the Earth's oceans. There are two major kinds of ice in the polar regions: sea ice and land ice. Land ice contributes to SLR and sea ice does not. This article explores the characteristics of sea ice and land ice and provides some hands-on…

  5. Revealing climate modes in steric sea levels: lessons learned from satellite geodesy, objective analyses and ocean reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeffer, J.; Tregoning, P.; Purcell, A. P.

    2017-12-01

    Due to increased greenhouse gases emissions, the oceans are accumulating heat. In response to the ocean circulation and atmospheric forcing, the heat is irregularly redistributed within the oceans, causing sea level to rise at variable rates in space and time. These rates of steric expansion are extremely difficult to assess because of the sparsity of in-situ hydrographic observations available within the course of the 20th century. We compare here three methods to reconstruct the steric sea levels over the past 13, 25 and 58 years based on satellite geodesy, objective analyses and ocean reanalyses. The interannual to decadal variability of each dataset is explored with a model merging six climate indices representative of the natural variability of the ocean and climate system. Consistent regional patterns are identified for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in all datasets at all timescales. Despite the short time coverage (13 years), the combination of satellite geodetic data (altimetry and GRACE) also reveals significant steric responses to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Indian Dipole (IOD) and Indian ocean basinwide (IOBM) mode. The richer information content in the ocean reanalyses allows us to recover the regional fingerprints of the PDO, ENSO, NPGO, IOD and IOBM, but also of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) acting over longer time scales (40 to 60 years). Therefore, ocean reanalyses, coupled with climate mode analyses, constitute innovative and promising tools to investigate the mechanisms triggering the variability of sea level rise over the past decades.

  6. Detecting sea-level hazards: Simple regression-based methods for calculating the acceleration of sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Kara S.; Howd, Peter A.; Sallenger,, Asbury H.

    2016-01-04

    This report documents the development of statistical tools used to quantify the hazard presented by the response of sea-level elevation to natural or anthropogenic changes in climate and ocean circulation. A hazard is a physical process (or processes) that, when combined with vulnerability (or susceptibility to the hazard), results in risk. This study presents the development and comparison of new and existing sea-level analysis methods, exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of the methods using synthetic time series, and when appropriate, synthesis of the application of the method to observed sea-level time series. These reports are intended to enhance material presented in peer-reviewed journal articles where it is not always possible to provide the level of detail that might be necessary to fully support or recreate published results.

  7. Sea-Level Allowances along the World Coastlines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandewal, R.; Tsitsikas, C.; Reerink, T.; Slangen, A.; de Winter, R.; Muis, S.; Hunter, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Sea level changes as a result of climate change. For projections we take ocean mass changes and volume changes into account. Including gravitational and rotational fingerprints this provide regional sea level changes. Hence we can calculate sea-level rise patterns based on CMIP5 projections. In order to take the variability around the mean state, which follows from the climate models, into account we use the concept of allowances. The allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be increased to maintain the likelihood of sea-level extremes. Here we use a global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels based on a global hydrodynamic model in order to calculate allowances. It is shown that the model compares in most regions favourably with tide gauge records from the GESLA data set. Combining the CMIP5 projections and the global hydrodynamical model we calculate sea-level allowances along the global coastlines and expand the number of points with a factor 50 relative to tide gauge based results. Results show that allowances increase gradually along continental margins with largest values near the equator. In general values are lower at midlatitudes both in Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Increased risk for extremes are typically 103-104 for the majority of the coastline under the RCP8.5 scenario at the end of the century. Finally we will show preliminary results of the effect of changing wave heights based on the coordinated ocean wave project.

  8. The future for the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) Sea Level Data Rescue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Matthews, Andrew; Rickards, Lesley; Aarup, Thorkild

    2016-04-01

    Historical sea level data are rare and unrepeatable measurements with a number of applications in climate studies (sea level rise), oceanography (ocean currents, tides, surges), geodesy (national datum), geophysics and geology (coastal land movements) and other disciplines. However, long-term time series are concentrated in the northern hemisphere and there are no records at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) global data bank longer than 100 years in the Arctic, Africa, South America or Antarctica. Data archaeology activities will help fill in the gaps in the global dataset and improve global sea level reconstruction. The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) is an international programme conducted under the auspices of the WMO-IOC Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology. It was set up in 1985 to collect long-term tide gauge observations and to develop systems and standards "for ocean monitoring and flood warning purposes". At the GLOSS-GE-XIV Meeting in 2015, GLOSS agreed on a number of action items to be developed in the next two years. These were: 1. To explore mareogram digitisation applications, including NUNIEAU (more information available at: http://www.mediterranee.cerema.fr/logiciel-de-numerisation-des-enregistrements-r57.html) and other recent developments in scanning/digitisation software, such as IEDRO's Weather Wizards program, to see if they could be used via a browser. 2. To publicise sea level data archaeology and rescue by: • maintaining and regularly updating the Sea Level Data Archaeology page on the GLOSS website • strengthening links to the GLOSS data centres and data rescue organisations e.g. linking to IEDRO, ACRE, RDA • restarting the sea level data rescue blog with monthly posts. 3. Investigate sources of funding for data archaeology and rescue projects. 4. Propose "Guidelines" for rescuing sea level data. These action items will aid the discovery, scanning, digitising and quality control

  9. Present day sea level changes: observations and climatic causes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, A.

    2007-01-01

    After a few thousand years of relative stability, sea level has risen of about 20 cm since the beginning of the 20. century. It currently rises at an average rate of about 3 mm/yr in response to global warming. About half of this rate is directly attributed to thermal expansion of sea water due to ocean warming, while the other half is mainly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets. Satellite observations show that sea level rise is highly non-uniform. (author)

  10. Extending the Instrumental Record of Sea-Level Change: A 1300-Year Sea-Level Record From Eastern Connecticut

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, J. P.; Cleary, P.

    2002-12-01

    The instrumental record of sea-level change in the northeastern United States extends back to the early 20th century and at New York City (NYC) extends back to 1856. These tide gauge records indicate that sea level has risen at a rate of 2.5 to 4 mm/year over the last 100-150 years. Geologic evidence of sea-level change in the region over the last 2,000 years indicates rates of sea-level rise of about 1 mm/year or less. The discordance between the instrumental and geologic records is frequently cited as potentially providing evidence that anthropogenic warming of the climate system has resulted in an increase in the rate of sea-level rise. In order to begin to test the hypothesis that acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise has occurred in the last 150 years due to anthropogenic climate warming, accurate and precise information on the timing of the apparent acceleration in sea-level rise are needed. Here we construct a high-resolution relative sea-level record for the past 1350 years by dating basal salt marsh peat samples above a glacial erratic in a western Connecticut salt marsh. Preservation of marsh vegetation remains in the sediment record that has a narrow vertical habitat range at the upper end of the tidal range provides information on past sea levels. { \\it Spartina patens} (marsh hay) and { \\it Juncus gerardi} (black rush) dominate both the modern marsh and their remains are the major constituent of the marsh sediments and occur in the modern marsh between mean high water (MHW) and mean highest high water. We use the elevation distribution of modern plant communities to estimate the relationship of sediment samples to paleo-mean high water. The chronology is based on 15 radiocarbon ages, supplemented by age estimates derived from the horizons of industrial Pb pollution and pollen indicative of European land clearance. Thirteen of the radiocarbon ages and the Pb and pollen data come from samples taken along a contact between marsh peat and a glacial

  11. Estimating sea-level allowances for Atlantic Canada under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Greenan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper documents the methodology of computing sea-level rise allowances for Atlantic Canada in the 21st century under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise. The sea-level rise allowances are defined as the amount by which an asset needs to be raised in order to maintain the same likelihood of future flooding events as that site has experienced in the recent past. The allowances are determined by combination of the statistics of present tides and storm surges (storm tides and the regional projections of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty. Tide-gauge data for nine sites from the Canadian Atlantic coast are used to derive the scale parameters of present sea-level extremes using the Gumbel distribution function. The allowances in the 21st century, with respect to the year 1990, were computed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC A1FI emission scenario. For Atlantic Canada, the allowances are regionally variable and, for the period 1990–2050, range between –13 and 38 cm while, for the period 1990–2100, they range between 7 and 108 cm. The negative allowances in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence region are caused by land uplift due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA.

  12. Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

    2017-04-20

    Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

  13. Sea-level changes on multiple spatial scales: estimates and contributing processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frederikse, T.

    2018-01-01

    Being one of the major consequences of anthropogenic climate change, sea level rise forms a threat for many coastal areas and their inhabitants. Because all processes that cause sea-level changes have a spatially-varying fingerprint, local sea-level changes deviate substantially from the global

  14. Coastline Mapping and Cultural Review to Predict Sea Level Rise Impact on Hawaiian Archeological Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, J.

    2017-12-01

    Much of Hawaii's history is recorded in archeological sites. Researchers and cultural practitioners have been studying and reconstructing significant archeological sites for generations. Climate change, and more specifically, sea level rise may threaten these sites. Our research records current sea levels and then projects possible consequences to these cultural monuments due to sea level rise. In this mixed methods study, research scientists, cultural practitioners, and secondary students use plane-table mapping techniques to create maps of coastlines and historic sites. Students compare historical records to these maps, analyze current sea level rise trends, and calculate future sea levels. They also gather data through interviews with community experts and kupuna (elders). If climate change continues at projected rates, some historic sites will be in danger of negative impact due to sea level rise. Knowing projected sea levels at specific sites allows for preventative action and contributes to raised awareness of the impacts of climate change to the Hawaiian Islands. Students will share results with the community and governmental agencies in hopes of inspiring action to minimize climate change. It will take collaboration between scientists and cultural communities to inspire future action on climate change.

  15. Climate change adaptation under uncertainty in the developing world: A case study of sea level rise in Kiribati

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, S. D.; Webber, S.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact in parts of the developing world. At the 2010 meeting of U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in Cancun, industrialized countries agreed in principle to provide US$100 billion per year by 2020 to assist the developing world respond to climate change. This "Green Climate Fund" is a critical step towards addressing the challenge of climate change. However, the policy and discourse on supporting adaptation in the developing world remains highly idealized. For example, the efficacy of "no regrets" adaptation efforts or "mainstreaming" adaptation into decision-making are rarely evaluated in the real world. In this presentation, I will discuss the gap between adaptation theory and practice using a multi-year case study of the cultural, social and scientific obstacles to adapting to sea level rise in the Pacific atoll nation of Kiribati. Our field research reveals how scientific and institutional uncertainty can limit international efforts to fund adaptation and lead to spiraling costs. Scientific uncertainty about hyper-local impacts of sea level rise, though irreducible, can at times limit decision-making about adaptation measures, contrary to the notion that "good" decision-making practices can incorporate scientific uncertainty. Efforts to improve institutional capacity must be done carefully, or they risk inadvertently slowing the implementation of adaptation measures and increasing the likelihood of "mal"-adaptation.

  16. Contributions of internal climate variability to mitigation of projected future regional sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, A.; Bates, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    Observations indicate that the global mean surface temperature is rising, so does the global mean sea level. Sea level rise (SLR) can impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities, especially when SLR is compounded with storm surges. Here, via analyzing results from two sets of ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1, we investigate how the potential SLR benefits through mitigating the future emission scenarios from business as usual to a mild-mitigation over the 21st Century would be affected by internal climate variability. Results show that there is almost no SLR benefit in the near term due to the large SLR variability due to the internal ocean dynamics. However, toward the end of the 21st century, the SLR benefit can be as much as a 26±1% reduction of the global mean SLR due to seawater thermal expansion. Regionally, the benefits from this mitigation for both near and long terms are heterogeneous. They vary from just a 11±5% SLR reduction in Melbourne, Australia to a 35±6% reduction in London. The processes contributing to these regional differences are the coupling of the wind-driven ocean circulation with the decadal scale sea surface temperature mode in the Pacific and Southern Oceans, and the changes of the thermohaline circulation and the mid-latitude air-sea coupling in the Atlantic.

  17. Millennial, centennial and decadal sea- level change in Florida, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, A.; Hawkes, A. D.; Donnelly, J. P.; Horton, B. P.

    2012-12-01

    Reconstructions of relative sea-level changes on millennial timescales provide data against which to test and calibrate Earth-Ice models. On the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast they constrain the geometry of the Laurentide Ice Sheet's collapsing forebulge. Sea -level data from southeastern Atlantic coast additionally constrain ice-equivalent meltwater input. Here we produce the first Holocene sea-level curve for Florida and Georgia from the St. Mary's River using agglutinated foraminifera preserved in radiocarbon-dated brackish and salt-marsh sediment. The use of foraminfera as sea-level indicators was underpinned by local and regional datasets describing the modern distribution of assemblages that are analogues for those preserved in buried sediment. This approach produced 25 index points that record 5.2 m of relative sea level rise over the last 8000 years with no evidence of a mid Holocene high stand. These reconstructions indicate that existing GIA models do not replicate proxy reconstructions and that northern Florida is subsiding in response to ongoing forebulge collapse at an estimated rate of approximately 0.3 mm/yr. Over multi decadal time scales, detailed sea level reconstructions provide an appropriate geological context for modern rates of sea-level rise. Reconstructions spanning the last 2000 years of known climate variability are important for developing models with predictive capacity that link climate and sea level changes. A reconstruction of sea-level changes since 2000 years BP was developed using a core of brackish marsh sediment from the Nassau River in Florida. Foraminifera estimated the elevation of former sea level with an uncertainty of ± 10 cm. Consistent downcore assemblages indicate that the marsh maintained its tidal elevation for 2000 years. An age depth model was developed for the core results from radiocarbon dating, 210Pb and 137Cs. The resulting relative sea level record was adjusted for the contribution made by glacio

  18. Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Warming water and melting land ice have raised global mean sea level 4.5 centimeters (1.7 inches) from 1993 to 2008. But the rise is by no means uniform. This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed during this time and how quickly these changes have occurred. It's also a road map showing where the ocean currently stores the growing amount of heat it is absorbing from Earth's atmosphere and the heat it receives directly from the Sun. The warmer the water, the higher the sea surface rises. The location of heat in the ocean and its movement around the globe play a pivotal role in Earth's climate. Light blue indicates areas in which sea level has remained relatively constant since 1993. White, red, and yellow are regions where sea levels have risen the most rapidly up to 10 millimeters per year and which contain the most heat. Green areas have also risen, but more moderately. Purple and dark blue show where sea levels have dropped, due to cooler water. The dramatic variation in sea surface heights and heat content across the ocean are due to winds, currents and long-term changes in patterns of circulation. From 1993 to 2008, the largest area of rapidly rising sea levels and the greatest concentration of heat has been in the Pacific, which now shows the characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a feature that can last 10 to 20 years or even longer. In this 'cool' phase, the PDO appears as a horseshoe-shaped pattern of warm water in the Western Pacific reaching from the far north to the Southern Ocean enclosing a large wedge of cool water with low sea surface heights in the eastern Pacific. This ocean/climate phenomenon may be caused by wind-driven Rossby waves. Thousands of kilometers long, these waves move from east to west on either side of the equator changing the distribution of water mass and heat. This image of sea level trend also reveals a significant

  19. ACCELERATION OF SEA LEVEL RISE OVER MALAYSIAN SEAS FROM SATELLITE ALTIMETER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. A. Hamid

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS. Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

  20. Acceleration of Sea Level Rise Over Malaysian Seas from Satellite Altimeter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, A. I. A.; Din, A. H. M.; Khalid, N. F.; Omar, K. M.

    2016-09-01

    Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS). Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA) are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

  1. A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Perrette

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011. Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6 with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%. Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.

  2. Global Climate Change Consequences Changing the Middle Sea Level in the Brazilian Coast: Impacts on Ceará State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacerda, E. G.; Pires, L. B. M.; Pinto, V. K. E.

    2015-12-01

    Since the Industrial Revolution, man started to generate increasing amounts of waste and pollutants, which on a large scale in the long term is causing a series of climate change consequences, both globally as well as locally. One of the many effects of these changes has been reflected in the ocean levels, depending on various factors. Thus, the population living in coastal areas suffers from the negative effects of the advancement of ocean waters. The coast of northeastern Brazil is an example of this, especially the state of Ceará coast. The state of Ceará has 573 km of coastline, a region that has suffered extensive erosion, in which the Middle Sea Level (MSL) changes exert a significant influence. The coastal plain is a strip of land of small extent, with an average width of 2.5 km, formed depending on the availability of high sediment stocks provided through the action of wind, marine, or river processes, individually in combination with each other. In many beaches it is observed that the strip of beach is narrow due to the presence of topographic elevations carved into sharp cliffs. Between periods of high tide and low tide, often rocky beach features are observed that have recently formed. The waves control the stretches of beach which are mostly sandy. This paper presents a survey about the evidence already apparent on the rise in the MSL and correlates it with the advance of the sea on the coast of Ceará, as well as assesses the possible consequences of this process. Therefore, a literature search was conducted in relevant scientific publications. The data used are from the station "Global Sea Level Observing System - GLOSS" which maintains a tide gauge installed in Ceará in Fortaleza. The analyses show that the phenomenon has caused a lot of inconvenience to the people, streets have disappeared, as well as several buildings located along the coast. The sea advances destroyed beaches and have promoted an accelerated level of erosion, changing the

  3. Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fettweis, X.; Franco, B.; Tedesco, M.; van Angelen, J.H.; Lenaerts, J.T.M.; van den Broeke, M.R.; Gallée, H.

    2013-01-01

    To estimate the sea level rise (SLR) originating from changes in surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), we present 21st century climate projections obtained with the regional climate model MAR (Mod`ele Atmosph´erique R´egional), forced by output of three CMIP5 (Coupled Model

  4. Updating Maryland's sea-level rise projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boesch, Donald F.; Atkinson, Larry P.; Boicourt, William C.; Boon, John D.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Dalrymple, Robert A.; Ezer, Tal; Horton, Benjamin P.; Johnson, Zoe P.; Kopp, Robert E.; Li, Ming; Moss, Richard H.; Parris, Adam; Sommerfield, Christopher K.

    2013-01-01

    With its 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying rural and urban lands, “The Free State” is one of the most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Historically, Marylanders have long had to contend with rising water levels along its Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean and coastal bay shores. Shorelines eroded and low-relief lands and islands, some previously inhabited, were inundated. Prior to the 20th century, this was largely due to the slow sinking of the land since Earth’s crust is still adjusting to the melting of large masses of ice following the last glacial period. Over the 20th century, however, the rate of rise of the average level of tidal waters with respect to land, or relative sea-level rise, has increased, at least partially as a result of global warming. Moreover, the scientific evidence is compelling that Earth’s climate will continue to warm and its oceans will rise even more rapidly. Recognizing the scientific consensus around global climate change, the contribution of human activities to it, and the vulnerability of Maryland’s people, property, public investments, and natural resources, Governor Martin O’Malley established the Maryland Commission on Climate Change on April 20, 2007. The Commission produced a Plan of Action that included a comprehensive climate change impact assessment, a greenhouse gas reduction strategy, and strategies for reducing Maryland’s vulnerability to climate change. The Plan has led to landmark legislation to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions and a variety of state policies designed to reduce energy consumption and promote adaptation to climate change.

  5. Effective media reporting of sea level rise projections: 1989-2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rick, U K; Boykoff, M T; Pielke, R A Jr

    2011-01-01

    In the mass media, sea level rise is commonly associated with the impacts of climate change due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. As this issue garners ongoing international policy attention, segments of the scientific community have expressed unease about how this has been covered by mass media. Therefore, this study examines how sea level rise projections-in IPCC Assessment Reports and a sample of the scientific literature-have been represented in seven prominent United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK) newspapers over the past two decades. The research found that-with few exceptions-journalists have accurately portrayed scientific research on sea level rise projections to 2100. Moreover, while coverage has predictably increased in the past 20 years, journalists have paid particular attention to the issue in years when an IPCC report is released or when major international negotiations take place, rather than when direct research is completed and specific projections are published. We reason that the combination of these factors has contributed to a perceived problem in the sea level rise reporting by the scientific community, although systematic empirical research shows none. In this contemporary high-stakes, high-profile and highly politicized arena of climate science and policy interactions, such results mark a particular bright spot in media representations of climate change. These findings can also contribute to more measured considerations of climate impacts and policy action at a critical juncture of international negotiations and everyday decision-making associated with the causes and consequences of climate change.

  6. Assessment of the impact of sea-level rise due to climate change on coastal groundwater discharge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masciopinto, Costantino; Liso, Isabella Serena

    2016-11-01

    An assessment of sea intrusion into coastal aquifers as a consequence of local sea-level rise (LSLR) due to climate change was carried out at Murgia and Salento in southern Italy. The interpolation of sea-level measurements at three tide-gauge stations was performed during the period of 2000 to 2014. The best fit of measurements shows an increasing rate of LSLR ranging from 4.4mm/y to 8.8mm/y, which will result in a maximum LSLR of approximately 2m during the 22nd century. The local rate of sea-level rise matches recent 21st and 22nd century projections of mean global sea-level rise determined by other researchers, which include increased melting rates of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, the effect of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps, and changes in the quantity of stored land water. Subsequently, Ghyben-Herzberg's equation for the freshwater/saltwater interface was rewritten in order to determine the decrease in groundwater discharge due to the maximum LSLR. Groundwater flow simulations and ArcGIS elaborations of digital elevation models of the coast provided input data for the Ghyben-Herzberg calculation under the assumption of head-controlled systems. The progression of seawater intrusion due to LSLR suggests an impressive depletion of available groundwater discharge during the 22nd century, perhaps as much as 16.1% of current groundwater pumping for potable water in Salento. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Understanding extreme sea levels for coastal impact and adaptation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Hinkel, J.; Dangendorf, S.; Slangen, A.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels, because increasing damage due to extreme events, such as storm surges and tropical cyclones, is one of the major consequences of sea level rise and climate change. In fact, the IPCC has highlighted in its AR4 report that "societal impacts of sea level change primarily occur via the extreme levels rather than as a direct consequence of mean sea level changes". Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future mean sea level; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact assessments at various spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. The uncertainties in future sea level rise are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios leading to a vertical displacement of the distribution of extreme sea-levels. And indeed most regional and global studies find little or no evidence for changes in storminess with climate change, although there is still low confidence in the results. However, and much more importantly, there is still a limited understanding of present-day extreme sea-levels which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of extreme sea-levels. The bias of these models varies spatially and can reach values much larger than the expected sea level rise; but it can be accounted for in most regions making use of in-situ measurements; (2) Statistical models used for determining present-day extreme sea-level exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored inter-model uncertainties for mean sea level, we explore here, for the first time, inter

  8. The Guayas Estuary and sea level corrections to calculate flooding areas for climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreano, H. R.; Paredes, N.

    2011-12-01

    The Guayas estuary is the inner area of the Gulf of Guayaquil, it holds a water body of around 5000 km2 and the Puna island divides the water flow in two main streams : El Morro and Estero Salado Channel (length: 90 Km.) and Jambeli and Rio Guayas Channel (length: 125km.). The geometry of the estuarine system with the behavior of the tidal wave (semidiurnal) makes tidal amplitude higher at the head than at the mouth, whereas the wave crest at the head is delayed from one and a half to two hours from that at the mouth and sea level recorded by gages along the estuary are all different because of the wave propagation and mean sea level (msl) calculated for each gage show differences with that of La Libertad which is the base line for all altitudes on land (zero level). A leveling and calculations were made to correct such differences in a way that all gages (msl) records were linked to La Libertad and this in turn allowed a better estimates of flooding areas and draw them on topographic maps where zero level corresponds to the mean sea level at La Libertad. The procedure and mathematical formulation could be applied to any estuary or coastal area and it is a useful tool to calculate such areas especially when impacts are on people or capital goods and related to climate change scenarios.

  9. An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sterl

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

  10. Present-day sea level rise: a synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cazenave, A.; Llovel, W.; Lombard, A.

    2008-01-01

    Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes have improved considerably in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing data sets have become available. Here we report on the current knowledge of present-day sea level change. We briefly present observational results on sea level change from satellite altimetry since 1993 and tide gauges for the past century. We next discuss recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on time scales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion, land ice mass loss and land water storage change. For the 1993-2003 decade, the sum of climate-related contributions agree well (within the error bars) with the altimetry-based sea level, half of the observed rate of rise being due to ocean thermal expansion, land ice plus land waters explaining the other half. Since about 2003, thermal expansion increase has stopped, whereas the sea level continues to rise, although at a reduced rate compared to the previous decade (2.5 mm/yr versus 3.1 mm/yr). Recent increases in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets appear able to account alone for the rise in sea level reported over the last five years. (authors)

  11. Impacts of sea level rise and climate change on coastal plant species in the central California coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kendra L. Garner

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Local increases in sea level caused by global climate change pose a significant threat to the persistence of many coastal plant species through exacerbating inundation, flooding, and erosion. In addition to sea level rise (SLR, climate changes in the form of air temperature and precipitation regimes will also alter habitats of coastal plant species. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats through species distribution models (SDMs, none have incorporated the threat of exposure to SLR. We developed a model that quantified the effect of both SLR and climate change on habitat for 88 rare coastal plant species in San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties, California, USA (an area of 23,948 km2. Our SLR model projects that by the year 2100, 60 of the 88 species will be threatened by SLR. We found that the probability of being threatened by SLR strongly correlates with a species’ area, elevation, and distance from the coast, and that 10 species could lose their entire current habitat in the study region. We modeled the habitat suitability of these 10 species under future climate using a species distribution model (SDM. Our SDM projects that 4 of the 10 species will lose all suitable current habitats in the region as a result of climate change. While SLR accounts for up to 9.2 km2 loss in habitat, climate change accounts for habitat suitability changes ranging from a loss of 1,439 km2 for one species to a gain of 9,795 km2 for another species. For three species, SLR is projected to reduce future suitable area by as much as 28% of total area. This suggests that while SLR poses a higher risk, climate changes in precipitation and air temperature represents a lesser known but potentially larger risk and a small cumulative effect from both.

  12. Greenhouse effect, sea level rise, and coastal drainage systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Titus, J G; Kuo, C Y; Gibbs, M J; LaRoche, T B; Webb, M K; Waddell, J O

    1987-01-01

    Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other gases are expected to warm the earth several degrees in the next century, which would raise sea level a few feet and alter precipitation patterns. Both of these changes would have major impacts on the operation of coastal drainage systems. However, because sea level rise and climate change resulting from the greenhouse effect are still uncertain, most planners and engineers are ignoring the potential implications. Case studies of the potential impact on watersheds in Charleston, South Carolina, and Fort Walton Beach, Florida, suggest that the cost of designing a new system to accommodate a rise in sea level will sometimes be small compared with the retrofit cost that may ultimately be necessary if new systems are not designed for a rise. Rather than ignore the greenhouse effect until its consequences are firmly established, engineers and planners should evaluate whether it would be worthwhile to insure that new systems are not vulnerable to the risks of climate change and sea level rise.

  13. Interdisciplinary assessment of sea-level rise and climate change impacts on the lower Nile delta, Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sušnik, Janez; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Lydia S; Baumert, Niklas; Kloos, Julia; Renaud, Fabrice G; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Mabrouk, Badr; Savić, Dragan A; Kapelan, Zoran; Ludwig, Ralf; Fischer, Georg; Roson, Roberto; Zografos, Christos

    2015-01-15

    CLImate-induced changes on WAter and SECurity (CLIWASEC) was a cluster of three complementary EC-FP7 projects assessing climate-change impacts throughout the Mediterranean on: hydrological cycles (CLIMB - CLimate-Induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean Basins); water security (WASSERMed - Water Availability and Security in Southern EuRope and the Mediterranean) and human security connected with possible hydro-climatic conflicts (CLICO - CLImate change hydro-COnflicts and human security). The Nile delta case study was common between the projects. CLIWASEC created an integrated forum for modelling and monitoring to understand potential impacts across sectors. This paper summarises key results from an integrated assessment of potential challenges to water-related security issues, focusing on expected sea-level rise impacts by the middle of the century. We use this common focus to illustrate the added value of project clustering. CLIWASEC pursued multidisciplinary research by adopting a single research objective: sea-level rise related water security threats, resulting in a more holistic view of problems and potential solutions. In fragmenting research, policy-makers can fail to understand how multiple issues can materialize from one driver. By combining efforts, an integrated assessment of water security threats in the lower Nile is formulated, offering policy-makers a clearer picture of inter-related issues to society and environment. The main issues identified by each project (land subsidence, saline intrusion - CLIMB; water supply overexploitation, land loss - WASSERMed; employment and housing security - CLICO), are in fact related. Water overexploitation is exacerbating land subsidence and saline intrusion, impacting on employment and placing additional pressure on remaining agricultural land and the underdeveloped housing market. All these have wider implications for regional development. This richer understanding could be critical in making better

  14. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Oregon Estuaries: Biology and Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estuaries are transitional ecosystems located at the margin of the land and ocean and as a result they are particularly sensitive to sea level rise and other climate drivers. In this presentation, we summarize the potential impacts of sea level rise on key estuarine habitats inc...

  15. Deglacial climate modulated by the storage and release of Arctic sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condron, A.; Coletti, A. J.; Bradley, R. S.

    2017-12-01

    Periods of abrupt climate cooling during the last deglaciation (20 - 8 kyr ago) are often attributed to glacial outburst floods slowing the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we present results from a series of climate model simulations showing that the episodic break-up and mobilization of thick, perennial, Arctic sea ice during this time would have released considerable volumes of freshwater directly to the Nordic Seas, where processes regulating large-scale climate occur. Massive sea ice export events to the North Atlantic are generated whenever the transport of sea ice is enhanced, either by changes in atmospheric circulation, rising sea level submerging the Bering land bridge, or glacial outburst floods draining into the Arctic Ocean from the Mackenzie River. We find that the volumes of freshwater released to the Nordic Seas are similar to, or larger than, those estimated to have come from terrestrial outburst floods, including the discharge at the onset of the Younger Dryas. Our results provide the first evidence that the storage and release of Arctic sea ice helped drive deglacial climate change by modulating the strength of the AMOC.

  16. Sea-level rise: towards understanding local vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2012-06-01

    , experts are increasingly looking at its potential impacts on coasts to facilitate local adaptation planning. This is a more complex issue than one might think, because different stretches of coast can be affected in very different ways. First of all, the sea-level response to global warming will not be globally uniform, since factors like changes in ocean currents (Levermann et al 2005) and the changing gravitational pull of continental ice (Mitrovica et al 2001) affect the local rise. Secondly, superimposed on the climatic trend is natural variability in sea level, which regionally can be as large as the climatic signal on multi-decadal timescales. Over the past decades, sea level has dropped in sizable parts of the world ocean, although it has of course risen in global mean (IPCC 2007). Thirdly, local land uplift or subsidence affects the local sea-level change relative to the coast, both for natural reasons (post-glacial isostatic adjustment centred on regions that were covered by ice sheets during the last ice age) and artificial ones (e.g., extraction of water or oil as in the Gulf of Mexico). Finally, local vulnerability to sea-level rise depends on many factors. Two interesting new studies in this journal (Tebaldi et al 2012, Strauss et al 2012) make important steps towards understanding sea-level vulnerability along the coasts of the United States, with methods that could also be applied elsewhere. The first, by Strauss and colleagues, merges high-resolution topographic data and a newly available tidal model together with population and housing data in order to estimate what land area and population would be at risk given certain increments in sea level. The results are mapped and tabulated at county and city level. They reveal the 'hot spots' along the US coast where sea-level rise is of the highest concern because of large populations living near the high-tide line: New York City and Long Island; the New Jersey shore; the Norfolk, Virginia, area; near Charleston

  17. The rise of sea level. To understand and to anticipate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-03-01

    By proposing and briefly commenting graphs and drawings, this publication propose brief presentations of the main issues related to sea level rise: global warming and climate disturbance, description of the phenomenon of sea level rise (difference between sea ice and ground ice, melting of glaciers), increase of sea level rise during the twentieth century, territories at risk (examples of Greenland, Tuvalu, Shanghai), acceleration of ice melting during the twenty first century with many coastal areas at risk, already noticed and possible future impacts in France (glaciers runoff, threatened coasts, example of the Xynthia tempest), how to be united and to anticipate (a threat for millions of people, adaptation to sea level rise, limitation of global warming to limit sea level rise)

  18. Detailed Tropical Sea Level Record Spanning the Younger Dryas Chronozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul, N. A.; Mortlock, R. A.; Wright, J. D.; Fairbanks, R. G.

    2010-12-01

    Variability in sea level is a fundamental measure of past changes in continental ice volume and provides an important benchmark to test climate change hypotheses. Records of the most recent deglaciation show two pulses of accelerated sea-level rise (Meltwater Pulses 1A and 1B) separated by an interval of slower sea level rise. The Younger Dryas chronozone falls within the interval between MWP 1A and 1B. It was first described over 100 years ago and remains one of the most studied periods in Earth’s history. The Younger Dryas was originally constrained with 14C dating to the interval between 11,000 and 10,000 14C years BP, which converts to 13,000 to 11,640 calendar years BP. The climatic expression of the Younger Dryas was most pronounced in the circum North Atlantic where climate proxies returned in some regions to near glacial values. Interpretations of the Younger Dryas’ significance range from a catastrophic global cooling event accompanied by Northern hemisphere ice sheet growth to simply regional changes in ocean and air mass mixing zones confined mainly to the North Atlantic. A detailed sea level record containing the interval from the end of MWP 1A to the beginning of MWP 1B (~14,000 to 11,300 years BP) was generated using 26 new U/Th dates from our 2007 Barbados offshore drilling expedition combined with our 1988 expedition measurements. 16 of these dates fall within the Younger Dryas Chronozone. Younger Dryas sea level positions were based on Acropora palmata samples from 3 overlapping and contemporaneous offshore drill cores (RGF 12 and BBDS 9 & 10) and corrected for minor tectonic uplift. From 14,000 to 11,300 years BP, sea level rose from ~81 to 56.5 m below present sea level with an initial rate of 10 m/kyr that decreased smoothly to <5 m/kyr at the base of MWP 1B. At the beginning of the Younger Dryas, sea level was at 69 m below present and rose 8 m by the end of this interval. In the context of the Barbados sea level record, the Younger Dryas

  19. Sea ice-albedo climate feedback mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schramm, J.L.; Curry, J.A. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Ebert, E.E. [Bureau of Meterology Research Center, Melbourne (Australia)

    1995-02-01

    The sea ice-albedo feedback mechanism over the Arctic Ocean multiyear sea ice is investigated by conducting a series of experiments using several one-dimensional models of the coupled sea ice-atmosphere system. In its simplest form, ice-albedo feedback is thought to be associated with a decrease in the areal cover of snow and ice and a corresponding increase in the surface temperature, further decreasing the area cover of snow and ice. It is shown that the sea ice-albedo feedback can operate even in multiyear pack ice, without the disappearance of this ice, associated with internal processes occurring within the multiyear ice pack (e.g., duration of the snow cover, ice thickness, ice distribution, lead fraction, and melt pond characteristics). The strength of the ice-albedo feedback mechanism is compared for several different thermodynamic sea ice models: a new model that includes ice thickness distribution., the Ebert and Curry model, the Mayjut and Untersteiner model, and the Semtner level-3 and level-0 models. The climate forcing is chosen to be a perturbation of the surface heat flux, and cloud and water vapor feedbacks are inoperative so that the effects of the sea ice-albedo feedback mechanism can be isolated. The inclusion of melt ponds significantly strengthens the ice-albedo feedback, while the ice thickness distribution decreases the strength of the modeled sea ice-albedo feedback. It is emphasized that accurately modeling present-day sea ice thickness is not adequate for a sea ice parameterization; the correct physical processes must be included so that the sea ice parameterization yields correct sensitivities to external forcing. 22 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

  20. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

    2013-12-03

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.

  1. Coupling of sea level and tidal range changes, with implications for future water levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devlin, Adam T; Jay, David A; Talke, Stefan A; Zaron, Edward D; Pan, Jiayi; Lin, Hui

    2017-12-05

    Are perturbations to ocean tides correlated with changing sea-level and climate, and how will this affect high water levels? Here, we survey 152 tide gauges in the Pacific Ocean and South China Sea and statistically evaluate how the sum of the four largest tidal constituents, a proxy for the highest astronomical tide (HAT), changes over seasonal and interannual time scales. We find that the variability in HAT is significantly correlated with sea-level variability; approximately 35% of stations exhibit a greater than ±50 mm tidal change per meter sea-level fluctuation. Focusing on a subset of three stations with long records, probability density function (PDF) analyses of the 95% percentile exceedance of total sea level (TSL) show long-term changes of this high-water metric. At Hong Kong, the increase in tides significantly amplifies the risk caused by sea-level rise. Regions of tidal decrease and/or amplification highlight the non-linear response to sea-level variations, with the potential to amplify or mitigate against the increased flood risk caused by sea-level rise. Overall, our analysis suggests that in many regions, local flood level determinations should consider the joint effects of non-stationary tides and mean sea level (MSL) at multiple time scales.

  2. Course of sea-level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlowicz, Michael

    This summer, the Environment and Climate Program of the European Union will offer an advanced study course on “sea-level changes on micro to macro timescales: measurements, modeling, interpretation, and application.” The short course will be taught from July 1-12 at the Aesclepon Conference Center on the island of Kos, Greece.The interdisciplinary course is designed to bring together at least 40 students from different disciplines in an attempt to share and disseminate fundamental ideas about sea level change, focusing particularly on changes influenced by anthropogenic factors. Participants will be selected by a scientific panel; the European Union will conduct the course free of charge and will provide free lodging. Students must pay for their own travel expenses and food.

  3. Caribbean Sea Level Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Crespo Jones, H.

    2012-12-01

    requirements and factors have been considered for the sustainability of the stations. The sea level stations have to potentially sustain very aggressive conditions of not only tsunamis, but on a more regular basis, hurricanes. Given the requirement that the data be available in near real time, for tsunami and other coastal hazard application, robust communication systems are also essential. For the local operator, the ability to be able to visualize the data is critical and tools like the IOC Sea level Monitoring Facility and the Tide Tool program are very useful. It has also been emphasized the need for these stations to serve multiple purposes. For climate and other research applications the data need to be archived, QC'd and analyzed. Increasing the user base for the sea level data has also been seen as an important goal to gain the local buy in; local weather and meteorological offices are considered as key stakeholders but for whom applications still need to be developed. The CARIBE EWS continues to look forward to working with other IOC partners including the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) and Sub-Commission for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (IOCARIBE)/GOOS, as well as with local, national and global sea level station operators and agencies for the development of a sustainable sea level network.

  4. Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Singapore Strait

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung

    2013-04-01

    Sea level in Singapore Strait is governed by various scale phenomena, from global to local. Global signals are dominated by the climate change and multi-decadal variability and associated sea level rise; at regional scale seasonal sea level variability is caused by ENSO-modulated monsoons; locally, astronomic tides are the strongest force. Tide gauge records in Singapore Strait are analyzed to derive local sea level trend, and attempts are made to attribute observed sea level variability to phenomena at various scales, from global to local. It is found that at annual scale, sea level anomalies in Singapore Strait are quasi-periodic, of the order of ±15 cm, the highest during northeast monsoon and the lowest during southwest monsoon. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are related to La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ±9 cm. At multi-decadal scale, sea level in Singapore Strait has been rising at the rate 1.2-1.9 mm/year for the period 1975-2009, 2.0±0.3 mm/year for 1984-2009, and 1.3-4.7 mm/year for 1993-2009. When compared with the respective global trends of 2.0±0.3, 2.4, and 2.8±0.8 mm/year, Singapore Strait sea level rise trend was weaker at the earlier period and stronger at the recent decade.

  5. Sea level change since 2005: importance of salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llovel, W.; Purkey, S.; Meyssignac, B.; Kolodziejczyk, N.; Blazquez, A.; Bamber, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Sea level rise is one of the most important consequences of the actual global warming. Global mean sea level has been rising at a faster rate since 1993 (over the satellite altimetry era) than previous decades. This rise is expected to accelerate over the coming decades and century. At global scale, sea level rise is caused by a combination of freshwater increase from land ice melting and land water changes (mass component) and ocean warming (thermal expansion). Estimating the causes is of great interest not only to understand the past sea level changes but also to validate projections based on climate models. In this study, we investigate the global mass contribution to recent sea level changes with an alternative approach by estimating the global ocean freshening. For that purpose, we consider the unprecedented amount of salinity measurements from Argo floats for the past decade (2005-2015). We compare our results to the ocean mass inferred by GRACE data and based on a sea level budget approach. Our results bring new constrains on the global water cycle (ocean freshening) and energy budget (ocean warming) as well as on the global ocean mass directly inferred from GRACE data.

  6. Global projections of extreme sea levels in view of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vousdoukas, M. I.; Feyen, L.; Voukouvalas, E.; Mentaschi, L.; Verlaan, M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Jackson, L. P.

    2017-12-01

    Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world's coasts. The present contribution aims to present global ESL projections obtained by combining dynamic simulations of all the major ESL components during the present century, considering the latest CMIP5 projections for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Baseline values are obtained combining global re-analyses of tides, waves, and storm surges, including the effects of tropical cyclones. The global average RSLR is projected around 20 and 24 cm by the 2050s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively and is projected to reach 46 and 67 cm by the year 2100. The largest increases in MSL are projected along the South Pacific, Australia and West Africa, while the smaller RSLR is projected around East North America, and Europe. Contributions from waves and storm surges show a very weak increasing global trend, which becomes statistically significant only towards the end of the century and under RCP8.5. However, for areas like the East China Sea, Sea of Japan, Alaska, East Bering Sea, as well as the Southern Ocean, climate extremes could increase up to 15%. By the end of this century the 100-year event ESL along the world's coastlines will on average increase by 48 cm for RCP4.5 and 75 cm for RCP8.5. The strongest rise is projected along the Southern Ocean exceeding 1 m under RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Increase exceeding 80 cm is projected for East Asia, West North America, East South America, and the North Indian Ocean. Considering always the business as usual and the year 2100, the lowest increase in ESL100 is projected along the East North America and Europe (below 50 cm). The present findings indicate that, under both RCPs, by the year 2050 the present day 100-year event will occur every 5 years along a large part of the tropics, rendering coastal zones exposed to intermittent flood hazard.

  7. Application of /sup 14/C-dating to sedimentary geology and climatology: Sea-level and climate change during the Holocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakai, Nobuyuki; Ohishi, Shyoji; Kuriyama, Toyoko; Nakamura, Toshio

    1987-11-01

    AMS /sup 14/C dating of small sized fossil shells, wood chips and sedimentary humic matter has been applied to the investigation of paleoclimatic and sea-level changes in the Holocene, using three estuarine and brackish lake sediment cores, drilled in Kawasaki city and Lake Hamanako, Japan. Precise and detailed ages at differing depths clarified large transitions of Holocene sedimentation rates, of two orders of magnitude. The vertical variation in delta/sup 13/C and C/N results for sedimentary organic matter, combined with AMS /sup 14/C ages, established continous climatic and sea-level fluctuation patterns through time and indicated the existence of neoglaciation coincident with the marine regression at 7500 to 7000 yr BP.

  8. Effect of climate change on sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherif, Mohsen M.; Singh, Vijay P.

    1999-06-01

    There is increasing debate these days on climate change and its possible consequences. Much of this debate has focused in the context of surface water systems. In many arid areas of the world, rainfall is scarce and so is surface runoff. These areas rely heavily on groundwater. The consequences of climate change on groundwater are long term and can be far reaching. One of the more apparent consequences is the increased migration of salt water inland in coastal aquifers. Using two coastal aquifers, one in Egypt and the other in India, this study investigates the effect of likely climate change on sea water intrusion. Three realistic scenarios mimicking climate change are considered. Under these scenarios, the Nile Delta aquifer is found to be more vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise.

  9. A Simple Model Framework to Explore the Deeply Uncertain, Local Sea Level Response to Climate Change. A Case Study on New Orleans, Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, Alexander; Louchard, Domitille; Keller, Klaus

    2016-04-01

    Sea-level rise threatens many coastal areas around the world. The integrated assessment of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies requires a sound understanding of the upper tails and the major drivers of the uncertainties. Global warming causes sea-level to rise, primarily due to thermal expansion of the oceans and mass loss of the major ice sheets, smaller ice caps and glaciers. These components show distinctly different responses to temperature changes with respect to response time, threshold behavior, and local fingerprints. Projections of these different components are deeply uncertain. Projected uncertainty ranges strongly depend on (necessary) pragmatic choices and assumptions; e.g. on the applied climate scenarios, which processes to include and how to parameterize them, and on error structure of the observations. Competing assumptions are very hard to objectively weigh. Hence, uncertainties of sea-level response are hard to grasp in a single distribution function. The deep uncertainty can be better understood by making clear the key assumptions. Here we demonstrate this approach using a relatively simple model framework. We present a mechanistically motivated, but simple model framework that is intended to efficiently explore the deeply uncertain sea-level response to anthropogenic climate change. The model consists of 'building blocks' that represent the major components of sea-level response and its uncertainties, including threshold behavior. The framework's simplicity enables the simulation of large ensembles allowing for an efficient exploration of parameter uncertainty and for the simulation of multiple combined adaptation and mitigation strategies. The model framework can skilfully reproduce earlier major sea level assessments, but due to the modular setup it can also be easily utilized to explore high-end scenarios and the effect of competing assumptions and parameterizations.

  10. Sea level trends in South East Asian Seas (SEAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

    2014-10-01

    Southeast Asian Seas (SEAS) span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The SEAS regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost two decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17 year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement in areas and at times of strong signal to noise associated decadal variability forced by low frequency variations in Pacific trade winds. The SEAS region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer time scales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past twenty years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the SEAS region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the SEAS regional sea level trends during 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the SEAS will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

  11. Regionalization of climate model results for the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kauker, F. [Alfred-Wegener-Institut fuer Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven (Germany); Storch, H. von [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    2000-07-01

    A dynamical downscaling for the North Sea is presented. The numerical model used for the study is the coupled ice-ocean model OPYC. In a hindcast of the years 1979 to 1993 it was forced with atmospheric forcing of the ECMWF reanalysis. The models capability in simulating the observed mean state and variability in the North Sea is demonstrated by the hindcast. Two time scale ranges, from weekly to seasonal and the longer-than-seasonal time scales are investigated. Shorter time scales, for storm surges, are not captured by the model formulation. The main modes of variability of sea level, sea-surface circulation, sea-surface temperature, and sea-surface salinity are described and connections to atmospheric phenomena, like the NAO, are discussed. T106 ''time-slice'' simulations with a ''2 x CO{sub 2}'' horizon are used to estimate the effects of a changing climate on the shelf sea ''North Sea''. The ''2 x CO{sub 2}'' changes in the surface forcing are accompanied by changes in the lateral oceanic boundary conditions taken from a global coupled climate model. For ''2 x CO{sub 2}'' the time mean sea level increases up to 25 cm in the German Bight in the winter, where 15 cm are due to the surface forcing and 10 cm due to thermal expansion. This change is compared to the ''natural'' variability as simulated in the ECMWF integration and found to be not outside the range spanned by it. The variability of sea level on the weekly-to-seasonal time-scales is significantly reduced in the scenario integration. The variability on the longer-than-seasonal time-scales in the control and scenario runs is much smaller then in the ECMWF integration. This is traced back to the use of ''time-slice'' experiments. Discriminating between locally forced changes and changes induced at the lateral oceanic boundaries of the model in the circulation and

  12. Increasing Resilience Through Engagement In Sea Level Rise Community Science Initiatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chilton, L. A.; Rindge, H.

    2017-12-01

    Science literate and engaged members of the public, including students, are critical to building climate resilient communities. USC Sea Grant facilitates programs that work to build and strengthen these connections. The Urban Tides Community Science Initiative (Urban Tides) and the Youth Exploring Sea Level Rise Science Program (YESS) engage communities across the boundaries of public engagement, K-12 education, and informal education. YESS is an experiential sea level rise education program that combines classroom learning, field investigations and public presentations. Students explore sea level rise using a new curricula, collect their own data on sea level rise, develop communication products, and present their findings to city governments, researchers, and others. Urban Tides engages community members, informal education centers, K-12 students, and local government leaders in a citizen science program photo- documenting extreme high tides, erosion and coastal flooding in Southern California. Images provide critical information to help calibrate scientific models used to identify locations vulnerable to damage from future sea level rise. These tools and information enable community leaders and local governments to set priorities, guidelines, and update policies as they plan strategies that will help the region adapt. The program includes a mobile app for data collection, an open database to view photos, a lesson plan, and community beach walks. Urban Tides has led to an increase in data and data-gathering capacity for regional scientists, an increase in public participation in science, and an increase in ocean and climate literacy among initiative participants. Both of these programs bring informed and diverse voices into the discussion of how to adapt and build climate resilient communities. USC Sea Grant will share impacts and lessons learned from these two unique programs.

  13. The Future of GLOSS Sea Level Data Archaeology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, S.; Bradshaw, E.; Tamisiea, M. E.; Aarup, T.

    2014-12-01

    Long term climate records are rare, consisting of unique and unrepeatable measurements. However, data do exist in analogue form in archives, libraries and other repositories around the world. The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) Group of Experts aims to provide advice on locating hidden tide gauge data, scanning and digitising records and quality controlling the resulting data. Long sea level data time series are used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports and climate studies, in oceanography to study changes in ocean currents, tides and storm surges, in geodesy to establish national datum and in geography and geology to monitor coastal land movement. GLOSS has carried out a number of data archaeology activities over the past decade, which have mainly involved sending member organisations questionnaires on their repositories. The Group of Experts is now looking at future developments in sea level data archaeology and how new technologies coming on line could be used by member organisations to make data digitisation and transcription more efficient. Analogue tide data comes in two forms charts, which record the continuous measurements made by an instrument, usually via a pen trace on paper ledgers containing written values of observations The GLOSS data archaeology web pages will provide a list of software that member organisations have reported to be suitable for the automatic digitisation of tide gauge charts. Transcribing of ledgers has so far proved more labour intensive and is usually conducted by people entering numbers by hand. GLOSS is exploring using Citizen Science techniques, such as those employed by the Old Weather project, to improve the efficiency of transcribing ledgers. The Group of Experts is also looking at recent advances in Handwritten Text Recognition (HTR) technology, which mainly relies on patterns in the written word, but could be adapted to work with the patterns inherent in sea level data.

  14. Sea level report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, M.L.

    1979-01-01

    Study of Cenozoic Era sea levels shows a continual lowering of sea level through the Tertiary Period. This overall drop in sea level accompanied the Pleistocene Epoch glacio-eustatic fluctuations. The considerable change of Pleistocene Epoch sea level is most directly attributable to the glacio-eustatic factor, with a time span of 10 5 years and an amplitude or range of approximately 200 m. The lowering of sea level since the end of the Cretaceous Period is attributed to subsidence and mid-ocean ridges. The maximum rate for sea level change is 4 cm/y. At present, mean sea level is rising at about 3 to 4 mm/y. Glacio-eustacy and tectono-eustacy are the parameters for predicting sea level changes in the next 1 my. Glacio-eustatic sea level changes may be projected on the basis of the Milankovitch Theory. Predictions about tectono-eustatic sea level changes, however, involve predictions about future tectonic activity and are therefore somewhat difficult to make. Coastal erosion and sedimentation are affected by changes in sea level. Erosion rates for soft sediments may be as much as 50 m/y. The maximum sedimentation accumulation rate is 20 m/100 y

  15. Sea Ice, Climate and Fram Strait

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunkins, K.

    1984-01-01

    When sea ice is formed the albedo of the ocean surface increases from its open water value of about 0.1 to a value as high as 0.8. This albedo change effects the radiation balance and thus has the potential to alter climate. Sea ice also partially seals off the ocean from the atmosphere, reducing the exchange of gases such as carbon dioxide. This is another possible mechanism by which climate might be affected. The Marginal Ice Zone Experiment (MIZEX 83 to 84) is an international, multidisciplinary study of processes controlling the edge of the ice pack in that area including the interactions between sea, air and ice.

  16. Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

    2017-04-01

    In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them

  17. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-08-20

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.

  18. Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

    2008-12-01

    that account for this acceleration are needed. One such method is an empirical relationship between air temperatures and global sea levels. The air temperature-sea level rise relationship was applied to the 12 climate change projections selected by the California Climate Action Team to estimate future sea levels. The 95% confidence level developed from the historical data was extrapolated to estimate the uncertainties in the future projections. To create sea level rise trend probability distributions, a lognormal probability distribution and a generalized extreme value probability distribution are used. Parameter estimations for these distributions are subjective and inevitably involve uncertainties, which will be improved as more research is conducted in this area.

  19. Climatic features of the Red Sea from a regional assimilative model

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu

    2016-08-16

    The Advanced Research version of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used to generate a downscaled, 10-km resolution regional climate dataset over the Red Sea and adjacent region. The model simulations are performed based on two, two-way nested domains of 30- and 10-km resolutions assimilating all conventional observations using a cyclic three-dimensional variational approach over an initial 12-h period. The improved initial conditions are then used to generate regional climate products for the following 24 h. We combined the resulting daily 24-h datasets to construct a 15-year Red Sea atmospheric downscaled product from 2000 to 2014. This 15-year downscaled dataset is evaluated via comparisons with various in situ and gridded datasets. Our analysis indicates that the assimilated model successfully reproduced the spatial and temporal variability of temperature, wind, rainfall, relative humidity and sea level pressure over the Red Sea region. The model also efficiently simulated the seasonal and monthly variability of wind patterns, the Red Sea Convergence Zone and associated rainfall. Our results suggest that dynamical downscaling and assimilation of available observations improve the representation of regional atmospheric features over the Red Sea compared to global analysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. We use the dataset to describe the atmospheric climatic conditions over the Red Sea region. © 2016 Royal Meteorological Society.

  20. Tracking multidecadal trends in sea level using coral microatolls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majewski, Jedrzej; Pham, Dat; Meltzner, Aron; Switzer, Adam; Horton, Benjamin; Heng, Shu Yun; Warrick, David

    2015-04-01

    Tracking multidecadal trends in sea level using coral microatolls Jędrzej M. Majewski 1, Dat T. Pham1, Aron J. Meltzner 1, Adam D. Switzer 1, Benjamin P. Horton2, Shu Yun Heng1, David Warrick3, 1 Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 2 Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA 3 Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA Coral microatolls can be used to study relative sea-level change at multidecadal timescales associated with vertical land movements, climate induced sea-level rise and other oceanographic phenomena such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) with the assumption that the highest level of survival (HLS) of coral microatolls track sea level over the course of their lifetimes. In this study we compare microatoll records covering from as early as 1883 through 2013, from two sites in Indonesia, with long records (>20 years) from proximal tide gauges, satellite altimetry, and other sea-level reconstructions. We compared the HLS time series derived from open-ocean and moated (or ponded) microatolls on tectonically stable Belitung Island and a potentially tectonically active setting in Mapur Island, with sea-level reconstructions for 1950-2011. The sea-level reconstructions are based on ground and satellite measurements, combining a tide model with the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) model. Our results confirm that open-ocean microatolls do track low water levels at multi decadal time scales and can be used as a proxy for relative sea level (RSL) over time. However, microatolls that are even partially moated are unsuitable and do not track RSL; rather, their growth patterns likely reflect changes in the elevation of the sill of the local pond, as reported by earlier authors. Our ongoing efforts will include an attempt to recognize similarities in moated

  1. Climate Prediction Center Indonesia Sea Level Pressure (1949-present)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It contains standardized sea level pressure anomalies over the equatorial Indonesia region...

  2. Sea Extremes: Integrated impact assessment in coastal climate adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Knudsen, Per; Broge, Niels

    2016-01-01

    protection measures, topography, and infrastructure to provide a more complete picture of the water-related impact from climate change at an exposed coastal location. Results show that future sea extremes evaluated from extreme value statistics may, indeed, have a large impact. The integrated effects from......We investigate effects of sea level rise and a change in precipitation pattern on coastal flooding hazards. Historic and present in situ and satellite data of water and groundwater levels, precipitation, vertical ground motion, geology,and geotechnical soil properties are combined with flood...... research advances and projections for the future are updated....

  3. The social values at risk from sea-level rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graham, Sonia; Barnett, Jon; Fincher, Ruth; Hurlimann, Anna; Mortreux, Colette; Waters, Elissa

    2013-01-01

    Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies

  4. The social values at risk from sea-level rise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, Sonia, E-mail: sonia.graham@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Barnett, Jon, E-mail: jbarn@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Fincher, Ruth, E-mail: r.fincher@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Hurlimann, Anna, E-mail: anna.hurlimann@unimelb.edu.au [Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of Melbourne, Architecture and Planning Building, Parkville, Victoria 3010 (Australia); Mortreux, Colette, E-mail: colettem@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Waters, Elissa, E-mail: elissa.waters@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia)

    2013-07-15

    Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.

  5. Grazing management can counteract the impacts of climate change-induced sea level rise on salt marsh-dependent waterbirds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Kevin Kuhlmann; Stjernholm, Michael; Clausen, Preben

    2013-01-01

    with these changes. In addition, we quantify the areal extent of inadequate salt marsh management in four EU Special Protection Areas for Birds, and demonstrate concurrent population dynamics in four species relying on managed habitats. We conclude by investigating potential compensation for climate change......1) Climate change–induced rises in sea level threaten to drastically reduce the areal extent of important salt marsh habitats for large numbers of waterfowl and waders. Furthermore, recent changes in management practice have rendered existent salt marshes unfavourable to many birds, as lack...... (around 1 cow per hectare) is an important initiative to counteract the accelerating climate change–induced habitat loss in near-coastal areas across the globe, and to secure priority salt marsh habitats that support internationally important populations of breeding, wintering and staging waterfowl...

  6. PERSPECTIVE: The tripping points of sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecht, Alan D.

    2009-12-01

    When President Nixon created the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1970 he said the environment must be perceived as a single, interrelated system. We are nowhere close to achieving this vision. Jim Titus and his colleagues [1] highlight one example of where one set of regulations or permits may be in conflict with another and where regulations were crafted in the absence of understanding the cumulative impact of global warming. The issue here is how to deal with the impacts of climate change on sea level and the latter's impact on wetland polices, clean water regulations, and ecosystem services. The Titus paper could also be called `The tripping points of sea level rise'. Titus and his colleagues have looked at the impact of such sea level rise on the east coast of the United States. Adaptive responses include costly large- scale investment in shore protection (e.g. dikes, sand replenishment) and/or ecosystem migration (retreat), where coastal ecosystems move inland. Shore protection is limited by available funds, while ecosystem migrations are limited by available land use. The driving factor is the high probability of sea level rise due to climate change. Estimating sea level rise is difficult because of local land and coastal dynamics including rising or falling land areas. It is estimated that sea level could rise between 8 inches and 2 feet by the end of this century [2]. The extensive data analysis done by Titus et al of current land use is important because, as they observe, `property owners and land use agencies have generally not decided how they will respond to sea level rise, nor have they prepared maps delineating where shore protection and retreat are likely'. This is the first of two `tripping points', namely the need for adaptive planning for a pending environmental challenge that will create economic and environment conflict among land owners, federal and state agencies, and businesses. One way to address this gap in adaptive management

  7. Sea level change

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Church, J.A.; Clark, P.U.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A.; Merrifield, M.A.; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Stammer, D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    This chapter considers changes in global mean sea level, regional sea level, sea level extremes, and waves. Confidence in projections of global mean sea level rise has increased since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) because of the improved...

  8. Sea level trends in Southeast Asian seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

    2015-05-01

    Southeast Asian seas span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian oceans. The Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost 2 decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17-year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement with decadal variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and related fluctuations of trade winds in the region. The Southeast Asian sea region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer timescales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past 20 years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the Southeast Asian sea region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends during the 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the Southeast Asian seas will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

  9. The land-ice contribution to 21st-century dynamic sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, T.; Ridley, J.; Pardaens, A. K.; Hurkmans, R. T. W. L.; Payne, A. J.; Giesen, R. H.; Lowe, J. A.; Bamber, J. L.; Edwards, T. L.; Oerlemans, J.

    2014-06-01

    Climate change has the potential to influence global mean sea level through a number of processes including (but not limited to) thermal expansion of the oceans and enhanced land ice melt. In addition to their contribution to global mean sea level change, these two processes (among others) lead to local departures from the global mean sea level change, through a number of mechanisms including the effect on spatial variations in the change of water density and transport, usually termed dynamic sea level changes. In this study, we focus on the component of dynamic sea level change that might be given by additional freshwater inflow to the ocean under scenarios of 21st-century land-based ice melt. We present regional patterns of dynamic sea level change given by a global-coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model forced by spatially and temporally varying projected ice-melt fluxes from three sources: the Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland Ice Sheet and small glaciers and ice caps. The largest ice melt flux we consider is equivalent to almost 0.7 m of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century. The temporal evolution of the dynamic sea level changes, in the presence of considerable variations in the ice melt flux, is also analysed. We find that the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is small, with the largest changes occurring in the North Atlantic amounting to 3 cm above the global mean rise. Furthermore, the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is similar regardless of whether the simulated ice fluxes are applied to a simulation with fixed CO2 or under a business-as-usual greenhouse gas warming scenario of increasing CO2.

  10. Climate change challenges for SEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    This paper takes a theoretical perspective on the challenges that climate changes pose for SEA. The theoretical framework used is the sociologist Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. Climate change is viewed as a risk, and the theory is used to derive...

  11. Relative Sea Level Trends Along the Coast of the Bay of Bengal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, M.; Calmant, S.; Papa, F.; Delebecque, C.; Islam, A. S.; Shum, C. K.

    2016-12-01

    In the coastal belt of the Bay of Bengal, the sea level rise is one of a major threat, linked to climate change, which drastically affects the livelihoods of millions of people. A comprehensive understanding of sea level trends and its variability in this region is therefore crucial and should help to anticipate the impacts of climate change and implement adaptation strategies. This region is bordered mostly by Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Thailand. Here, we revisit the sea level changes in the Bay of Bengal region from tide gauges and satellite altimetry over the period 1993-2014. The 23 monthly mean tide gauge records, used in this study, are retrieved from PSMSL (15 records) and supplemented with Bangladeshi observations (8 records). We show that, over the satellite altimetry era, the sea level interannual/decadal variability is mainly due to ocean thermal expansion variability driven by IOD/ENSO events and their low frequency modulation. We focus on relative sea level rise at major coastal cities and try to separate the climatic signal (long term trend plus interannual/decadal variability) from local effects, in particular vertical land movements. Results from GPS are analysed where available. When no such data exist, vertical land movements are deduced from the combined use of tide gauge and altimetry data. While the analysis is performed over the whole region, a particular attention is given to the low-lyingBangladesh's coastal area.

  12. Bipolar seesaw control on last interglacial sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marino, G; Rohling, E J; Rodríguez-Sanz, L; Grant, K M; Heslop, D; Roberts, A P; Stanford, J D; Yu, J

    2015-06-11

    Our current understanding of ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere interactions at ice-age terminations relies largely on assessments of the most recent (last) glacial-interglacial transition, Termination I (T-I). But the extent to which T-I is representative of previous terminations remains unclear. Testing the consistency of termination processes requires comparison of time series of critical climate parameters with detailed absolute and relative age control. However, such age control has been lacking for even the penultimate glacial termination (T-II), which culminated in a sea-level highstand during the last interglacial period that was several metres above present. Here we show that Heinrich Stadial 11 (HS11), a prominent North Atlantic cold episode, occurred between 135 ± 1 and 130 ± 2 thousand years ago and was linked with rapid sea-level rise during T-II. Our conclusions are based on new and existing data for T-II and the last interglacial that we collate onto a single, radiometrically constrained chronology. The HS11 cold episode punctuated T-II and coincided directly with a major deglacial meltwater pulse, which predominantly entered the North Atlantic Ocean and accounted for about 70 per cent of the glacial-interglacial sea-level rise. We conclude that, possibly in response to stronger insolation and CO2 forcing earlier in T-II, the relationship between climate and ice-volume changes differed fundamentally from that of T-I. In T-I, the major sea-level rise clearly post-dates Heinrich Stadial 1. We also find that HS11 coincided with sustained Antarctic warming, probably through a bipolar seesaw temperature response, and propose that this heat gain at high southern latitudes promoted Antarctic ice-sheet melting that fuelled the last interglacial sea-level peak.

  13. Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka

    2017-01-18

    Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (sea level extremes, up to 50% in low-tidal basins. The intensity of these oscillations is zonally correlated with mid-tropospheric winds at the 99% significance level, with the variance doubling from the tropics and subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Specific atmospheric patterns are found during strong events at selected locations in the World Ocean, indicating a globally predominant generation mechanism. Our analysis suggests that these oscillations should be considered in sea level hazard assessment studies. Establishing a strong correlation between nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates.

  14. Human Impacts On The Bengal Delta's Response To Rapid Climate And Sea-Level Changes: Who Threatens Whom? (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodbred, S. L.

    2009-12-01

    The densely populated country of Bangladesh is often cited as being severely threatened by predicted changes in climate and accelerated sea-level rise. Justification for this grave assessment is founded in part on the low-lying nation's frequent inundation by river floods and storm surges, which affect millions of people annually. Indeed, nearly 50% of the delta system lies natural environment it speaks more to a healthful future than decline. Here I present field-based observations of sediment dispersal in the modern Bengal delta, which demonstrate how the system may remain relatively stable over the next century. However, this potentially acceptable outcome becomes increasingly unlikely if human interferences are considered. For example, short-term strategies to mitigate flooding would likely involve artificial leveeing of the river and the diking of coastal lowlands, both of which would limit sedimentation and diminish relative elevation of the delta surface. Threats upstream of the delta also include river damming to address demands for hydroelectric power and water resources in India, with a resulting decline in sediment discharge to the coast. Ultimately, it may be the impacts of such direct human-modification to the Bengal delta and river systems that outpace - in time and severity - those resulting from climate and sea-level changes alone.

  15. History of Aral Sea level variability and current scientific debates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cretaux, Jean-François; Letolle, René; Bergé-Nguyen, Muriel

    2013-11-01

    The Aral Sea has shrunk drastically over the past 50 years, largely due to water abstraction from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers for land irrigation. Over a longer timescale, Holocene palaeolimnological reconstruction of variability in water levels of the Aral Sea since 11,700 BP indicates a long history of alternating phases of regression and transgression, which have been attributed variously to climate, tectonic and anthropogenic forcing. The hydrological history of the Aral Sea has been investigated by application of a variety of scientific approaches, including archaeology, palaeolimnological palaeoclimate reconstruction, geophysics, sedimentology, and more recently, space science. Many issues concerning lake level variability over the Holocene and more recent timescales, and the processes that drive the changes, are still a matter for active debate. Our aim in this article is to review the current debates regarding key issues surrounding the causes and magnitude of Aral Sea level variability on a variety of timescales from months to thousands of years. Many researchers have shown that the main driving force of Aral Sea regressions and transgressions is climate change, while other authors have argued that anthropogenic forcing is the main cause of Aral Sea water level variations over the Holocene. Particular emphasis is made on contributions from satellite remote sensing data in order to improve our understanding of the influence of groundwater on the current hydrological water budget of the Aral Sea since 2005. Over this period of time, water balance computation has been performed and has shown that the underground water inflow to the Aral Sea is close to zero with an uncertainty of 3 km3/year.

  16. Climate Modeling and Causal Identification for Sea Ice Predictability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunke, Elizabeth Clare [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Urban, Nathan Mark [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2018-02-12

    This project aims to better understand causes of ongoing changes in the Arctic climate system, particularly as decreasing sea ice trends have been observed in recent decades and are expected to continue in the future. As part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network, a multi-agency effort to improve sea ice prediction products on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, our team is studying sensitivity of sea ice to a collection of physical process and feedback mechanism in the coupled climate system. During 2017 we completed a set of climate model simulations using the fully coupled ACME-HiLAT model. The simulations consisted of experiments in which cloud, sea ice, and air-ocean turbulent exchange parameters previously identified as important for driving output uncertainty in climate models were perturbed to account for parameter uncertainty in simulated climate variables. We conducted a sensitivity study to these parameters, which built upon a previous study we made for standalone simulations (Urrego-Blanco et al., 2016, 2017). Using the results from the ensemble of coupled simulations, we are examining robust relationships between climate variables that emerge across the experiments. We are also using causal discovery techniques to identify interaction pathways among climate variables which can help identify physical mechanisms and provide guidance in predictability studies. This work further builds on and leverages the large ensemble of standalone sea ice simulations produced in our previous w14_seaice project.

  17. Sea Extremes: Integrated impact assessment in coastal climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorensen, Carlo; Knudsen, Per; Broge, Niels; Molgaard, Mads; Andersen, Ole

    2016-04-01

    We investigate effects of sea level rise and a change in precipitation pattern on coastal flooding hazards. Historic and present in situ and satellite data of water and groundwater levels, precipitation, vertical ground motion, geology, and geotechnical soil properties are combined with flood protection measures, topography, and infrastructure to provide a more complete picture of the water-related impact from climate change at an exposed coastal location. Results show that future sea extremes evaluated from extreme value statistics may, indeed, have a large impact. The integrated effects from future storm surges and other geo- and hydro-parameters need to be considered in order to provide for the best protection and mitigation efforts, however. Based on the results we present and discuss a simple conceptual model setup that can e.g. be used for 'translation' of regional sea level rise evidence and projections to concrete impact measures. This may be used by potentially affected stakeholders -often working in different sectors and across levels of governance, in a common appraisal of the challenges faced ahead. The model may also enter dynamic tools to evaluate local impact as sea level research advances and projections for the future are updated.

  18. Variability and change of sea level and its components in the Indo-Pacific region during the altimetry era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Quran; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Hu, Jianyu

    2017-03-01

    Previous studies have shown that regional sea level exhibits interannual and decadal variations associated with the modes of climate variability. A better understanding of those low-frequency sea level variations benefits the detection and attribution of climate change signals. Nonetheless, the contributions of thermosteric, halosteric, and mass sea level components to sea level variability and trend patterns remain unclear. By focusing on signals associated with dominant climate modes in the Indo-Pacific region, we estimate the interannual and decadal fingerprints and trend of each sea level component utilizing a multivariate linear regression of two adjoint-based ocean reanalyses. Sea level interannual, decadal, and trend patterns primarily come from thermosteric sea level (TSSL). Halosteric sea level (HSSL) is of regional importance in the Pacific Ocean on decadal time scale and dominates sea level trends in the northeast subtropical Pacific. The compensation between TSSL and HSSL is identified in their decadal variability and trends. The interannual and decadal variability of temperature generally peak at subsurface around 100 m but that of salinity tend to be surface-intensified. Decadal temperature and salinity signals extend deeper into the ocean in some regions than their interannual equivalents. Mass sea level (MassSL) is critical for the interannual and decadal variability of sea level over shelf seas. Inconsistencies exist in MassSL trend patterns among various estimates. This study highlights regions where multiple processes work together to control sea level variability and change. Further work is required to better understand the interaction of different processes in those regions.

  19. Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric; hide

    2016-01-01

    We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10-40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500-2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to C6-9m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 C

  20. Responses to salinity in invasive cordgrass hybrids and their parental species (Spartina) in a scenario of sea level rise and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background/Question/Methods: Salinity is one of the main abiotic factors in salt marshes. Studies rooted to analyzed salinity tolerance of halophytes may help to relate their physiological tolerances with distribution limits in the field. Climate change-induced sea level rise and higher temperatures...

  1. Diving In To Sea Level Rise Using The Polar Explorer ';App'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turrin, M.; Ryan, W. B.; Bell, R. E.; Pfirman, S. L.; Bell, B.; Porter, D. F.

    2013-12-01

    The vast majority of our lifetime is spent learning outside the classroom, yet the major emphasis in developing climate change instructional materials has been the traditional K16 school environment. The Polar Learning and Responding (PoLAR) project of the National Science Foundation supported Climate Change Education Partnership (CCEP) program chose to move beyond the classroom to focus on lifelong learners, in order to engage the adult population in building public understanding about climate change. Yet reaching individuals who make their own decisions about what and how they choose to learn requires a very different approach to developing educational materials. With an adult audience how we deliver content can be as critical as what we deliver. Using materials and platforms that are readily available and familiar to the user is important. With a significant segment of our time spent connected to smart phones and tablets, employing these platforms to deliver content makes sense. Whether at work, home or in transit, portable devices are critical companions and trusted tools in providing information on everything from the latest news to the daily weather. The world of Apps is equally as familiar to the adult user, so developing an engaging climate App for a portable device offers a successful strategy. The 'Polar Explorer - Sea Level Rise (SLR) App', is one of the new interactive products developed as part of the PoLAR project. Modeled after Columbia's Earth Observer App, a data exploration and data visualization tool, the Polar Explorer SLR App includes a wide range of real Earth data from ocean and atmospheric temperatures to depth of ice layers, underlying topography and human impacts. The Polar Explorer SLR App is grounded in the concept that scientists gain insights into climate change and climate processes through directly examining data. With some scaffolding, the public can gain similar insights using the same data. Structured to be 'question driven' the

  2. Air-sea exchange over Black Sea estimated from high resolution regional climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velea, Liliana; Bojariu, Roxana; Cica, Roxana

    2013-04-01

    Black Sea is an important influencing factor for the climate of bordering countries, showing cyclogenetic activity (Trigo et al, 1999) and influencing Mediterranean cyclones passing over. As for other seas, standard observations of the atmosphere are limited in time and space and available observation-based estimations of air-sea exchange terms present quite large ranges of uncertainty. The reanalysis datasets (e.g. ERA produced by ECMWF) provide promising validation estimates of climatic characteristics against the ones in available climatic data (Schrum et al, 2001), while cannot reproduce some local features due to relatively coarse horizontal resolution. Detailed and realistic information on smaller-scale processes are foreseen to be provided by regional climate models, due to continuous improvements of physical parameterizations and numerical solutions and thus affording simulations at high spatial resolution. The aim of the study is to assess the potential of three regional climate models in reproducing known climatological characteristics of air-sea exchange over Black Sea, as well as to explore the added value of the model compared to the input (reanalysis) data. We employ results of long-term (1961-2000) simulations performed within ENSEMBLE project (http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/) using models ETHZ-CLM, CNRM-ALADIN, METO-HadCM, for which the integration domain covers the whole area of interest. The analysis is performed for the entire basin for several variables entering the heat and water budget terms and available as direct output from the models, at seasonal and annual scale. A comparison with independent data (ERA-INTERIM) and findings from other studies (e.g. Schrum et al, 2001) is also presented. References: Schrum, C., Staneva, J., Stanev, E. and Ozsoy, E., 2001: Air-sea exchange in the Black Sea estimated from atmospheric analysis for the period 1979-1993, J. Marine Systems, 31, 3-19 Trigo, I. F., T. D. Davies, and G. R. Bigg (1999): Objective

  3. Preparing Norfolk Area Students for America's Second Highest Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, R. R.

    2017-12-01

    The nonprofit Elizabeth River Project located in Hampton Roads, Virginia was awarded a 3-year national NOAA Environmental Literacy award 2016-2019 to teach 21,000 K-12 youth how to help restore one of the most polluted rivers on the Chesapeake Bay and to help create a resilient community that is facing impacts from the rising seas and changing climate. Through a community collaboration, partners are also creating perhaps the nation's first Youth Resilience Strategy with a vision, goals, best practices and resources on engaging youth to help create resilient cities facing environmental and economic changes. During Year 1, 7,000 elementary students held field investigations aboard the floating classroom Learning Barge and at Paradise Creek Nature Park and helped restore wetland restoration sites. Students performed inquiry based investigations, learned stewardship actions to help create resilience and showed a 40% increase in knowledge. Year 1 best practices in teaching resilience include youth: getting out of the classroom, discovering how rain water travels, performing bioblitzes and water quality testing, engaging in hands-on GreenSTEM activities, using investigation tools, creating innovative solutions to retain and reuse rain water, creating art and voicing their opinions on creating a resilient community.Lessons learned include developing engaging inquiry questions based on creating a resilient community. These included: "What are the impact of rising tides?", "How can sea level rise affect river animals?", "How can we be safe and prepare for extreme weather and flooding as the sea level rises?", "How has the way people worked with the Elizabeth River changed?", "How could sea level rise affect the Elizabeth River's water quality?", "How hot might the air temperature get by 2050 and what can we do to keep it cooler?", "What does this park show us about sea level rise and other ways our climate is changing?", "How do trees help make our park and community

  4. Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Jason; Schrum, Corinna; Cannaby, Heather; Daewel, Ute; Allen, Icarus; Artioli, Yuri; Bopp, Laurent; Butenschon, Momme; Fach, Bettina A.; Harle, James; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Salihoglu, Baris; Wakelin, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change

  5. Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

    2018-02-20

    Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO 2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.

  6. Minimum and Maximum Potential Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deconto, R. M.; Pollard, D.

    2017-12-01

    New climate and ice-sheet modeling, calibrated to past changes in sea-level, is painting a stark picture of the future fate of the great polar ice sheets if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. This is especially true for Antarctica, where a substantial fraction of the ice sheet rests on bedrock more than 500-meters below sea level. Here, we explore the sensitivity of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean under a range of future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The ice sheet-climate-ocean model used here considers time-evolving changes in surface mass balance and sub-ice oceanic melting, ice deformation, grounding line retreat on reverse-sloped bedrock (Marine Ice Sheet Instability), and newly added processes including hydrofracturing of ice shelves in response to surface meltwater and rain, and structural collapse of thick, marine-terminating ice margins with tall ice-cliff faces (Marine Ice Cliff Instability). The simulations improve on previous work by using 1) improved atmospheric forcing from a Regional Climate Model and 2) a much wider range of model physical parameters within the bounds of modern observations of ice dynamical processes (particularly calving rates) and paleo constraints on past ice-sheet response to warming. Approaches to more precisely define the climatic thresholds capable of triggering rapid and potentially irreversible ice-sheet retreat are also discussed, as is the potential for aggressive mitigation strategies like those discussed at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) to substantially reduce the risk of extreme sea-level rise. These results, including physics that consider both ice deformation (creep) and calving (mechanical failure of marine terminating ice) expand on previously estimated limits of maximum rates of future sea level rise based solely on kinematic constraints of glacier flow. At the high end, the new results show the potential for more than 2m of global mean sea level rise by 2100

  7. An Investigation of the Radiative Effects and Climate Feedbacks of Sea Ice Sources of Sea Salt Aerosol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horowitz, H. M.; Alexander, B.; Bitz, C. M.; Jaegle, L.; Burrows, S. M.

    2017-12-01

    In polar regions, sea ice is a major source of sea salt aerosol through lofting of saline frost flowers or blowing saline snow from the sea ice surface. Under continued climate warming, an ice-free Arctic in summer with only first-year, more saline sea ice in winter is likely. Previous work has focused on climate impacts in summer from increasing open ocean sea salt aerosol emissions following complete sea ice loss in the Arctic, with conflicting results suggesting no net radiative effect or a negative climate feedback resulting from a strong first aerosol indirect effect. However, the radiative forcing from changes to the sea ice sources of sea salt aerosol in a future, warmer climate has not previously been explored. Understanding how sea ice loss affects the Arctic climate system requires investigating both open-ocean and sea ice sources of sea-salt aerosol and their potential interactions. Here, we implement a blowing snow source of sea salt aerosol into the Community Earth System Model (CESM) dynamically coupled to the latest version of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE5). Snow salinity is a key parameter affecting blowing snow sea salt emissions and previous work has assumed constant regional snow salinity over sea ice. We develop a parameterization for dynamic snow salinity in the sea ice model and examine how its spatial and temporal variability impacts the production of sea salt from blowing snow. We evaluate and constrain the snow salinity parameterization using available observations. Present-day coupled CESM-CICE5 simulations of sea salt aerosol concentrations including sea ice sources are evaluated against in situ and satellite (CALIOP) observations in polar regions. We then quantify the present-day radiative forcing from the addition of blowing snow sea salt aerosol with respect to aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. The relative contributions of sea ice vs. open ocean sources of sea salt aerosol to radiative forcing in polar regions is

  8. BRICK v0.2, a simple, accessible, and transparent model framework for climate and regional sea-level projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Tony E.; Bakker, Alexander M. R.; Ruckert, Kelsey; Applegate, Patrick; Slangen, Aimée B. A.; Keller, Klaus

    2017-07-01

    Simple models can play pivotal roles in the quantification and framing of uncertainties surrounding climate change and sea-level rise. They are computationally efficient, transparent, and easy to reproduce. These qualities also make simple models useful for the characterization of risk. Simple model codes are increasingly distributed as open source, as well as actively shared and guided. Alas, computer codes used in the geosciences can often be hard to access, run, modify (e.g., with regards to assumptions and model components), and review. Here, we describe the simple model framework BRICK (Building blocks for Relevant Ice and Climate Knowledge) v0.2 and its underlying design principles. The paper adds detail to an earlier published model setup and discusses the inclusion of a land water storage component. The framework largely builds on existing models and allows for projections of global mean temperature as well as regional sea levels and coastal flood risk. BRICK is written in R and Fortran. BRICK gives special attention to the model values of transparency, accessibility, and flexibility in order to mitigate the above-mentioned issues while maintaining a high degree of computational efficiency. We demonstrate the flexibility of this framework through simple model intercomparison experiments. Furthermore, we demonstrate that BRICK is suitable for risk assessment applications by using a didactic example in local flood risk management.

  9. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hansen

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10–40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500–2000-year timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to +6–9 m with evidence of extreme storms

  10. Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to the lack of representation of ice-sheet dynamics in present-day physically-based climate models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends......, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and land-ocean surface air...... temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s...

  11. Sea level reconstructions from altimetry and tide gauges using independent component analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther; Kusche, Jürgen; Forootan, Ehsan

    2017-04-01

    Many reconstructions of global and regional sea level rise derived from tide gauges and satellite altimetry used the method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) to reduce noise, improving the spatial resolution of the reconstructed outputs and investigate the different signals in climate time series. However, the second order EOF method has some limitations, e.g. in the separation of individual physical signals into different modes of sea level variations and in the capability to physically interpret the different modes as they are assumed to be orthogonal. Therefore, we investigate the use of the more advanced statistical signal decomposition technique called independent component analysis (ICA) to reconstruct global and regional sea level change from satellite altimetry and tide gauge records. Our results indicate that the used method has almost no influence on the reconstruction of global mean sea level change (1.6 mm/yr from 1960-2010 and 2.9 mm/yr from 1993-2013). Only different numbers of modes are needed for the reconstruction. Using the ICA method is advantageous for separating independent climate variability signals from regional sea level variations as the mixing problem of the EOF method is strongly reduced. As an example, the modes most dominated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal are compared. Regional sea level changes near Tianjin, China, Los Angeles, USA, and Majuro, Marshall Islands are reconstructed and the contributions from ENSO are identified.

  12. Comparison of several climate indices as inputs in modelling of the Baltic Sea runoff

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanninen, J.; Vuorinen, I. [Turku Univ. (Finland). Archipelaco Research Inst.], e-mail: jari.hanninen@utu.fi

    2012-11-01

    Using Transfer function (TF) models, we have earlier presented a chain of events between changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their oceanographical and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea. Here we tested whether other climate indices as inputs would improve TF models, and our understanding of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Besides NAO, the predictors were the Arctic Oscillation (AO), sea-level air pressures at Iceland (SLP), and wind speeds at Hoburg (Gotland). All indices produced good TF models when the total riverine runoff to the Baltic Sea was used as a modelling basis. AO was not applicable in all study areas, showing a delay of about half a year between climate and runoff events, connected with freezing and melting time of ice and snow in the northern catchment area of the Baltic Sea. NAO appeared to be most useful modelling tool as its area of applicability was the widest of the tested indices, and the time lag between climate and runoff events was the shortest. SLP and Hoburg wind speeds showed largely same results as NAO, but with smaller areal applicability. Thus AO and NAO were both mostly contributing to the general understanding of climate control of runoff events in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. (orig.)

  13. Sea level rise and variability around Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tay, Tze-Wei

    2014-05-01

    Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea, both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. As a result, sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); whilst long term sea level trend is coordinated by the global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability surrounding the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 0.8 mm/yr and 2.7 ± 0.6 mm/yr, respectively. Discounting for their vertical land movements (0.8 ± 2.6 mm/yr and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm/yr, respectively), their pure SLR rates are 1.6 ± 3.4 mm/yr and 1.8 ± 2.8 mm/yr, respectively, which are lower than the global tendency. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian east coast in the range of ± 5 cm with very high correlation coefficient. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies in the Malacca Strait in the range of ± 2 cm with high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index. Seasonally, SLAs are mainly monsoon-driven, in the order of 10-25 cm. Geographically, sea level responds differently to the monsoon: two cycles per year are observed in the Malacca Strait, presumably due to South Asian - Indian Monsoon; while single

  14. Differences between the last two glacial maxima and implications for ice-sheet, δ18O, and sea-level reconstructions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rohling, Eelco J; Hibbert, Fiona D.; Williams, Felicity H.; Grant, Katharine M; Marino, Gianluca; Foster, Gavin L; Hennekam, Rick|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/357286081; de Lange, Gert J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073930962; Roberts, Andrew P.; Yu, Jimin; Webster, Jody M.; Yokoyama, Yusuke

    2017-01-01

    Studies of past glacial cycles yield critical information about climate and sea-level (ice-volume) variability, including the sensitivity of climate to radiative change, and impacts of crustal rebound on sea-level reconstructions for past interglacials. Here we identify significant differences

  15. An Improved 20-Year Arctic Ocean Altimetric Sea Level Data Record

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per

    2015-01-01

    For ocean and climate research, it is essential to get long-term altimetric sea level data that is as accurate as possible. However, the accuracy of the altimetric data is frequently degraded in the interior of the Arctic Ocean due to the presence of seasonal or permanent sea ice. We have reproce...

  16. Quantification of climatic feedbacks on the Caspian Sea level variability and impacts from the Caspian Sea on the large-scale atmospheric circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arpe, Klaus; Tsuang, Ben-Jei; Tseng, Yu-Heng; Liu, Xin-Yu; Leroy, Suzanne A. G.

    2018-05-01

    With a fall of the Caspian Sea level (CSL), its size gets smaller and therefore the total evaporation over the sea is reduced. With a reduced evaporation from the sea, the fall of the CSL is weakened. This creates a negative feedback as less evaporation leads to less water losses of the Caspian Sea (CS). On the other hand, less evaporation reduces the water in the atmosphere, which may lead to less precipitation in the catchment area of the CS. The two opposite feedbacks are estimated by using an atmospheric climate model coupled with an ocean model only for the CS with different CS sizes while keeping all other forcings like oceanic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and leaf area index the same from a global climate simulation. The investigation is concentrated on the medieval period because at that time the CSL changed dramatically from about - 30 to - 19 m below the mean ocean sea level, partly man-made. Models used for simulating the last millennium are not able to change the size of the CS dynamically so far. When results from such simulations are used to investigate the CSL variability and its causes, the present study should help to parameterize its feedbacks. A first assumption that the total evaporation from the CS will vary with the size of the CS (number of grid points representing the sea) is generally confirmed with the model simulations. The decrease of grid points from 15 to 14, 10, 8 or 7 leads to a decrease of evaporation to 96, 77, 70 and 54%. The lower decrease than initially expected from the number of grid points (93, 67, 53 and 47%) is probably due to the fact that there would also be some evaporation at grid points that run dry with a lower CSL but a cooling of the CS SST with increasing CS size in summer may be more important. The reduction of evaporation over the CS means more water for the budget of the whole catchment of the CS (an increase of the CSL) but from the gain through reduced evaporation over the CS, only 70% is found to remain in

  17. Sea-level rise risks to coastal cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the consequence of sea-level rise for coastal cities has long lead times and huge political implications. Civilisation has emerged and developed during a period of several thousand years during which in geological terms sea level has been unusually stable. We have now moved out of this period and the challenge will be to develop a long-term proactive assessment approach to manage this challenge. In 2005 there were 136 coastal cities with a population exceeding one million people and a collective population of 400 million people. All these coastal cities are threatened by flooding from the sea to varying degrees and these risks are increasing due to growing exposure (people and assets), rising sea levels due to climate change, and in some cities, significant coastal subsidence due to human agency (drainage and groundwater withdrawals from susceptible soils). In these cities we wish to avoid major flood events, with associated damage and potentially deaths and ultimately decline of the cities. Flood risks grow with sea-level rise as it raises extreme sea levels. As sea levels continue to rise, protection will have to be progressively upgraded. Even with this, the magnitude of losses when flood events do occur would increase as coastal cities expand, and water depths and hence unit damage increase with sea-level rise/subsidence. This makes it critical to also prepare for larger coastal flood disasters than we experience today and raises questions on the limits to adaptation. There is not an extensive literature or significant empirical information on the limits to adaptation in coastal cities. These limits are not predictable in a formal sense - while the rise in mean sea level raises the likelihood of a catastrophic flood, extreme events are what cause damage and trigger a response, be it abandonment, a defence upgrade or something else. There are several types of potential limits that could be categorised into three broad types: • Physical

  18. Atmospheric forcing of decadal Baltic Sea level variability in the last 200 years. A statistical analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huenicke, B. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Kuestenforschung

    2008-11-06

    This study aims at the estimation of the impact of different atmospheric factors on the past sealevel variations (up to 200 years) in the Baltic Sea by statistically analysing the relationship between Baltic Sea level records and observational and proxy-based reconstructed climatic data sets. The focus lies on the identification and possible quantification of the contribution of sealevel pressure (wind), air-temperature and precipitation to the low-frequency (decadal and multi-decadal) variability of Baltic Sea level. It is known that the wind forcing is the main factor explaining average Baltic Sea level variability at inter-annual to decadal timescales, especially in wintertime. In this thesis it is statistically estimated to what extent other regional climate factors contribute to the spatially heterogeneous Baltic Sea level variations around the isostatic trend at multi-decadal timescales. Although the statistical analysis cannot be completely conclusive, as the potential climate drivers are all statistically interrelated to some degree, the results indicate that precipitation should be taken into account as an explanatory variable for sea-level variations. On the one hand it has been detected that the amplitude of the annual cycle of Baltic Sea level has increased throughout the 20th century and precipitation seems to be the only factor among those analysed (wind through SLP field, barometric effect, temperature and precipitation) that can account for this evolution. On the other hand, precipitation increases the ability to hindcast inter-annual variations of sea level in some regions and seasons, especially in the Southern Baltic in summertime. The mechanism by which precipitation exerts its influence on Baltic Sea level is not ascertained in this statistical analysis due to the lack of long salinity time series. This result, however, represents a working hypothesis that can be confirmed or disproved by long simulations of the Baltic Sea system - ocean

  19. Do Climate Models Simulate the Right Sea Ice Trends for the Wrong Reasons?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenblum, E. J.; Eisenman, I.

    2016-02-01

    Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, predict a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice cover. A number of recent studies have attributed this discrepancy in each hemisphere to natural variability. Here we examine sea ice changes during 1979-2013 in simulations from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project as well as the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. We find that after accounting for biases in the level of global warming in each simulation, the possibility that natural variability alone could explain the difference between models and observations becomes exceedingly small. This suggests instead that there is a systematic bias in the climate models or possibly the observations.

  20. Development of small carbonate banks on the south Florida platform margin: Response to sea level and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallinson, David J.; Hine, Albert C.; Hallock, Pamela; Locker, Stanley D.; Shinn, Eugene; Naar, David; Donahue, Brian; Weaver, Douglas C.

    2003-01-01

    Geophysical and coring data from the Dry Tortugas, Tortugas Bank, and Riley’s Hump on the southwest Florida margin reveal the stratigraphic framework and growth history of these carbonate banks. The Holocene reefs of the Dry Tortugas and Tortugas Bank are approximately 14 and 10 m thick, respectively, and are situated upon Pleistocene reefal edifices. Tortugas Bank consists of the oldest Holocene corals in the Florida Keys with earliest coral recruitment occurring at ∼9.6 cal ka. Growth curves for the Tortugas Bank reveal slow growth (demise at ∼4.2 cal ka. Coral reef development at the Dry Tortugas began at ∼6.4 cal ka. Aggradation at the Dry Tortugas was linear, and rapid (∼3.7 mm/yr) and kept pace with sea-level change. The increase in aggradation rate of Tortugas Bank at 6.2 cal ka is attributed to the growth of the Dry Tortugas reefs, which formed a barrier to inimical shelf water. Termination of shallow (<15 m below sea level) reef growth at Tortugas Bank at ∼4.2 cal ka is attributed to paleoclimate change in the North American interior that increased precipitation and fluvial discharge. Reef growth rates and characteristics are related to the rate of sea-level rise relative to the position of the reef on the shelf margin, and are additionally modified by hydrographic conditions related to climate change.

  1. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Oregon Estuaries: Biology and Hydrology - for posting on website

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estuaries are transitional ecosystems located at the margin of the land and ocean and as a result they are particularly sensitive to sea level rise and other climate drivers. In this presentation, we summarize the potential impacts of sea level rise on key estuarine habitats incl...

  2. Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirwan, Matthew L.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Morris, James T.; Mudd, Simon M.; Temmerman, Stijn

    2010-01-01

    Assumptions of a static landscape inspire predictions that about half of the world's coastal wetlands will submerge during this century in response to sea-level acceleration. In contrast, we use simulations from five numerical models to quantify the conditions under which ecogeomorphic feedbacks allow coastal wetlands to adapt to projected changes in sea level. In contrast to previous sea-level assessments, we find that non-linear feedbacks among inundation, plant growth, organic matter accretion, and sediment deposition, allow marshes to survive conservative projections of sea-level rise where suspended sediment concentrations are greater than ~20 mg/L. Under scenarios of more rapid sea-level rise (e.g., those that include ice sheet melting), marshes will likely submerge near the end of the 21st century. Our results emphasize that in areas of rapid geomorphic change, predicting the response of ecosystems to climate change requires consideration of the ability of biological processes to modify their physical environment.

  3. Contemporary Arctic Sea Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazenave, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    During recent decades, the Arctic region has warmed at a rate about twice the rest of the globe. Sea ice melting is increasing and the Greenland ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerated rate. Arctic warming, decrease in the sea ice cover and fresh water input to the Arctic ocean may eventually impact the Arctic sea level. In this presentation, we review our current knowledge of contemporary Arctic sea level changes. Until the beginning of the 1990s, Arctic sea level variations were essentially deduced from tide gauges located along the Russian and Norwegian coastlines. Since then, high inclination satellite altimetry missions have allowed measuring sea level over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean (up to 80 degree north). Measuring sea level in the Arctic by satellite altimetry is challenging because the presence of sea ice cover limits the full capacity of this technique. However adapted processing of raw altimetric measurements significantly increases the number of valid data, hence the data coverage, from which regional sea level variations can be extracted. Over the altimetry era, positive trend patterns are observed over the Beaufort Gyre and along the east coast of Greenland, while negative trends are reported along the Siberian shelf. On average over the Arctic region covered by satellite altimetry, the rate of sea level rise since 1992 is slightly less than the global mea sea level rate (of about 3 mm per year). On the other hand, the interannual variability is quite significant. Space gravimetry data from the GRACE mission and ocean reanalyses provide information on the mass and steric contributions to sea level, hence on the sea level budget. Budget studies show that regional sea level trends over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are essentially due to salinity changes. However, in terms of regional average, the net steric component contributes little to the observed sea level trend. The sea level budget in the Arctic

  4. Sea Surface Temperature Climate Data Record for the North Sea and Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høyer, Jacob L.; Karagali, Ioanna

    2016-01-01

    A 30-yr climate data record (CDR) of sea surface temperature (SST) has been produced with daily gap-free analysis fields for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea region from 1982 to 2012 by combining the Pathfinder AVHRR satellite data record with the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) Reprocessing...... for Climate (ARC) dataset and with in situ observations. A dynamical bias correction scheme adjusts the Pathfinder observations toward the ARC and in situ observations. Largest Pathfinder-ARC differences are found in the summer months, when the Pathfinder observations are up to 0.4 °C colder than the ARC...... observations on average. Validation against independent in situ observations shows a very stable performance of the data record, with a mean difference of -0.06 °C compared to moored buoys and a 0.46 °C standard deviation of the differences. The mean annual biases of the SST CDR are small for all years...

  5. Detailed Sea Level Record from Barbados Spanning 13,000 to 11,000 Years Before Present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul, N. A.; Mortlock, R. A.; Wright, J. D.; Fairbanks, R. G.

    2013-12-01

    Th/U dated reef-crest corals (Acropora palmata) obtained from new Barbados offshore drill cores provide a local sea level reconstruction in unprecedented detail. The time interval, 13,000 to 11,000 years before present (BP), spans the well-studied Younger Dryas pollen zone, a period that has given rise to more than three decades of sensational climate interpretations and popular press. Widely described as a time when Earth's climate reverted to "glacial-like conditions" the various hypotheses that attempt to explain the "cause" of the Younger Dryas climate event have their staunch supporters as well as their critics but there remains little consensus. The Barbados sea level record for this time interval shows that sea level continued to rise during the Younger Dryas, albeit at a slower rate than prior to 13,000 or following 11,000 years BP. The decrease in the rate of sea level rise can simply be explained by the slow expansion of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet beginning 12,800 years BP followed by its faster demise contributing to a period of rapid sea level increase known as Melt Water Pulse 1B. We calculate the ice volume history of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet and it compares favorably to the moraine history and ice models. The Younger Dryas climate event is most often defined by the rapid shifts in atmospheric proxies measured in ice cores from Greenland. The ice core proxies shift into and out of the Younger Dryas climate event in only a few years to a few decades. Abrupt shifts in the climate state associated with the onset and termination of the Younger Dryas as revealed in Greenland Ice cores are not expressed in the smooth Barbados deglacial sea level record. We make the case that these Greenland atmospheric records mark regional atmospheric frontal shifts and changes in air mass sources over an ice sheet that largely did not participate in the deglaciation or sea level change. As proposed decades ago, the warming of the North Atlantic between 14,000 and 13

  6. Effect of changes in seafloor temperature and sea-level on gas hydrate stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garg, S.K.; Pritchett, W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States)

    2008-07-01

    Natural gas hydrates occur in oceanic sediments and in permafrost regions around the world. As a greenhouse gas, large amounts of methane released from the global hydrate reservoir would have a significant impact on Earth's climate. The role of methane released by hydrate dissociation in climate change is uncertain. However, changes in global climate such as glaciation and warming can destabilize the hydrates. During the last glacial maximum, the sea level dropped about 100 meters. It has been suggested that the sea-level fall was associated with gas hydrate instability and seafloor slumping. This paper investigated the effect of changes in seafloor temperature and sea level on gas hydrate stability and on gas venting at the seafloor. A one-dimensional numerical computer model (simulator) was developed to describe methane hydrate formation, decomposition, reformation, and distribution with depth below the seafloor in the marine environment. The simulator was utilized to model hydrate distributions at two sites, notably Blake Ridge, located offshore South Carolina and Hydrate Ridge, located off the coast of Oregon. The numerical models for the two sites were conditioned by matching the sulfate, chlorinity, and hydrate distribution measurements. The effect of changes in seafloor temperature and sea-level on gas hydrate stability were then investigated. It was concluded that for Blake Ridge, changes in hydrate concentration were small. Both the changes in seafloor temperature and sea-level led to a substantial increase in gas venting at the seafloor for Hydrate Ridge. 17 refs., 8 figs.

  7. Modeling Caspian Sea water level oscillations under different scenarios of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roshan GholamReza

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978 has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in the coastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was simulated. Variations in environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, atmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for both past (1951-2006 and future (2025-2100 time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software (version 5.3. The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site has increased by ca. 0.17°C per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21. The Caspian Sea water level has increased by ca. +36cm per decade (r=0.82 between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64°C and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin, temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78°C and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels project future water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

  8. Modeling Caspian Sea water level oscillations under different scenarios of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshan, Gholamreza; Moghbel, Masumeh; Grab, Stefan

    2012-12-12

    The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978) has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in the coastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was simulated. Variations in environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, atmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for both past (1951-2006) and future (2025-2100) time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software (version 5.3). The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site) has increased by ca. 0.17°C per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21). The Caspian Sea water level has increased by ca. +36cm per decade (r=0.82) between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64°C and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm) over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin, temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78°C and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm) by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels project future water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

  9. Sea-level rise along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Northern Italy) in 2100: scenarios and impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perini, Luisa; Calabrese, Lorenzo; Luciani, Paolo; Olivieri, Marco; Galassi, Gaia; Spada, Giorgio

    2017-12-01

    As a consequence of climate change and land subsidence, coastal zones are directly impacted by sea-level rise. In some particular areas, the effects on the ecosystem and urbanisation are particularly enhanced. We focus on the Emilia-Romagna (E-R) coastal plain in Northern Italy, bounded by the Po river mouth to the north and by the Apennines to the south. The plain is ˜ 130 km long and is characterised by wide areas below mean sea level, in part made up of reclaimed wetlands. In this context, several morphodynamic factors make the shore and back shore unstable. During next decades, the combined effects of land subsidence and of the sea-level rise as a result of climate change are expected to enhance the shoreline instability, leading to further retreat. The consequent loss of beaches would impact the economy of the region, which is tightly connected with tourism infrastructures. Furthermore, the loss of wetlands and dunes would threaten the ecosystem, which is crucial for the preservation of life and the environment. These specific conditions show the importance of a precise definition of the possible local impacts of the ongoing and future climate variations. The aim of this work is the characterisation of vulnerability in different sectors of the coastal plain and the recognition of the areas in which human intervention is urgently required. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) sea-level scenarios are merged with new high-resolution terrain models, current data for local subsidence and predictions of the flooding model in_CoastFlood in order to develop different scenarios for the impact of sea-level rise projected to year 2100. First, the potential land loss due to the combined effect of subsidence and sea-level rise is extrapolated. Second, the increase in floodable areas as a result of storm surges is quantitatively determined. The results are expected to support the regional mitigation and adaptation strategies

  10. Ice volume and climate changes from a 6000 year sea-level record in French Polynesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallmann, N; Camoin, G; Eisenhauer, A; Botella, A; Milne, G A; Vella, C; Samankassou, E; Pothin, V; Dussouillez, P; Fleury, J; Fietzke, J

    2018-01-18

    Mid- to late-Holocene sea-level records from low-latitude regions serve as an important baseline of natural variability in sea level and global ice volume prior to the Anthropocene. Here, we reconstruct a high-resolution sea-level curve encompassing the last 6000 years based on a comprehensive study of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders. Our curve is based on microatolls from several islands in a single region and comprises a total of 82 sea-level index points. Assuming thermosteric contributions are negligible on millennial time scales, our results constrain global ice melting to be 1.5-2.5 m (sea-level equivalent) since ~5500 years before present. The reconstructed curve includes isolated rapid events of several decimetres within a few centuries, one of which is most likely related to loss from the Antarctic ice sheet mass around 5000 years before present. In contrast, the occurrence of large and flat microatolls indicates periods of significant sea-level stability lasting up to ~300 years.

  11. Climate impacts of parameterized Nordic Sea overflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Large, William G.; Briegleb, Bruce P.

    2010-11-01

    A new overflow parameterization (OFP) of density-driven flows through ocean ridges via narrow, unresolved channels has been developed and implemented in the ocean component of the Community Climate System Model version 4. It represents exchanges from the Nordic Seas and the Antarctic shelves, associated entrainment, and subsequent injection of overflow product waters into the abyssal basins. We investigate the effects of the parameterized Denmark Strait (DS) and Faroe Bank Channel (FBC) overflows on the ocean circulation, showing their impacts on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the North Atlantic climate. The OFP is based on the Marginal Sea Boundary Condition scheme of Price and Yang (1998), but there are significant differences that are described in detail. Two uncoupled (ocean-only) and two fully coupled simulations are analyzed. Each pair consists of one case with the OFP and a control case without this parameterization. In both uncoupled and coupled experiments, the parameterized DS and FBC source volume transports are within the range of observed estimates. The entrainment volume transports remain lower than observational estimates, leading to lower than observed product volume transports. Due to low entrainment, the product and source water properties are too similar. The DS and FBC overflow temperature and salinity properties are in better agreement with observations in the uncoupled case than in the coupled simulation, likely reflecting surface flux differences. The most significant impact of the OFP is the improved North Atlantic Deep Water penetration depth, leading to a much better comparison with the observational data and significantly reducing the chronic, shallow penetration depth bias in level coordinate models. This improvement is due to the deeper penetration of the southward flowing Deep Western Boundary Current. In comparison with control experiments without the OFP, the abyssal ventilation rates increase in the North

  12. 21st Century Sea-Level Rise in Line with the Paris Accord

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Luke P.; Grinsted, Aslak; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

    2018-02-01

    As global average sea-level rises in the early part of this century there is great interest in how much global and local sea level will change in the forthcoming decades. The Paris Climate Agreement's proposed temperature thresholds of 1.5°C and 2°C have directed the research community to ask what differences occur in the climate system for these two states. We have developed a novel approach to combine climate model outputs that follow specific temperature pathways to make probabilistic projections of sea-level in a 1.5°C and 2°C world. We find median global sea-level (GSL) projections for 1.5°C and 2°C temperature pathways of 44 and 50 cm, respectively. The 90% uncertainty ranges (5%-95%) are both around 48 cm by 2100. In addition, we take an alternative approach to estimate the contribution from ice sheets by using a semi-empirical GSL model. Here we find median projections of 58 and 68 cm for 1.5°C and 2°C temperature pathways. The 90% uncertainty ranges are 67 and 82 cm respectively. Regional projections show similar patterns for both temperature pathways, though differences vary between the median projections (2-10 cm) and 95th percentile (5-20 cm) for the bulk of oceans using process-based approach and 10-15 cm (median) and 15-25 cm (95th percentile) using the semi-empirical approach.

  13. The Climate Science Special Report: Rising Seas and Changing Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    GMSL has risen by about 16-21 cm since 1900. Ocean heat content has increased at all depths since the 1960s, and global mean sea-surface temperature increased 0.7°C/century between 1900 to 2016. Human activity contributed substantially to generating a rate of GMSL rise since 1900 faster than during any preceding century in at least 2800 years. A new set of six sea-level rise scenarios, spanning a range from 30 cm to 250 cm of 21st century GMSL rise, were developed for the CSSR. The lower scenario is based on linearly extrapolating the past two decades' rate of rise. The upper scenario is informed by literature estimates of maximum physically plausible values, observations indicating the onset of marine ice sheet instability in parts of West Antarctica, and modeling of ice-cliff and ice-shelf instability mechanisms. The new scenarios include localized projections along US coastlines. There is significant variability around the US, with rates of rise likely greater than GMSL rise in the US Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. Under scenarios involving extreme Antarctic contributions, regional rise would be greater than GMSL rise along almost all US coastlines. Historical sea-level rise has already driven a 5- to 10-fold increase in minor tidal flooding in several US coastal cities since the 1960s. Under the CSSR's Intermediate sea-level rise scenario (1.0 m of GMSL rise in 2100) , a majority of NOAA tide gauge locations will by 2040 experience the historical 5-year coastal flood about 5 times per year. Ocean changes are not limited to rising sea levels. Ocean pH is decreasing at a rate that may be unparalleled in the last 66 million years. Along coastlines, ocean acidification can be enhanced by changes in the upwelling (particularly along the US Pacific Coast); by episodic, climate change-enhanced increases in freshwater input (particularly along the US Atlantic Coast); and by the enhancement of biological respiration by nutrient runoff. Climate models project

  14. Wetland Responses to Sea Level Rise in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizad, K.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Morris, J. T.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal regions are vulnerable to flood risk due to climate change, sea level rise, and wetland losses. The Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) is a region in which extreme events are projected to be more intense under climate change and sea level rise scenarios [Wang et al., 2013; Bilskie et al., 2014]. Considering increased frequency and intensity of coastal flooding, wetlands are valuable natural resources that protect shorelines by dissipating waves and storm surges [Costanza et al., 2008]. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the response of salt marsh systems in different estuaries to sea level rise in the NGOM and their effects on storm surges to inform coastal managers to choose effective restoration plans. This research applies the coupled Hydro-MEM model [Alizad et al., 2016] to study three different estuarine systems in the NGOM. The model incorporates both sea level rise rate and feedbacks between physics and biology by coupling a hydrodynamic (ADCIRC) and salt marsh (MEM) model. The results of the model provide tidal hydrodynamics and biomass density change under four sea level rise projections during a 100-year period. The results are used to investigate marsh migration path in the estuarine systems. In addition, this study shows how marsh migration and biomass density change can impact storm surge modeling. The results imply the broader impacts of sea level rise on the estuarine systems in the NGOM. ReferencesAlizad, K., S. C. Hagen, J. T. Morris, P. Bacopoulos, M. V. Bilskie, J. Weishampel, and S. C. Medeiros (2016), A coupled, two-dimensional hydrodynamic-marsh model with biological feedback, Ecological Modeling, 327, 29-43. Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, and D. L. Passeri (2014), Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(3), 927-934. Costanza, R., O. Pérez-Maqueo, M. L. Martinez, P. Sutton, S. J. Anderson, and K. Mulder (2008), The Value of Coastal Wetlands for Hurricane

  15. Indicators of Arctic Sea Ice Bistability in Climate Model Simulations and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    associated with the ice - albedo feedback and the seasonal melt and growth of sea ice , as well as horizontal climate variations on a global domain. (2...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Indicators of Arctic Sea Ice Bistability in Climate...possibility that the climate system supports multiple Arctic sea ice states that are relevant for the evolution of sea ice during the next several

  16. Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and Its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Yoshihide; Reager, John T.; Chao, Benjamin F.; Wang, Jida; Lo, Min-Hui; Song, Chunqiao; Li, Yuwen; Gardner, Alex S.

    2016-01-01

    Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth's surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.

  17. A vulnerability assessment of 300 species in Florida: threats from sea level rise, land use, and climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Steven Reece

    Full Text Available Species face many threats, including accelerated climate change, sea level rise, and conversion and degradation of habitat from human land uses. Vulnerability assessments and prioritization protocols have been proposed to assess these threats, often in combination with information such as species rarity; ecological, evolutionary or economic value; and likelihood of success. Nevertheless, few vulnerability assessments or prioritization protocols simultaneously account for multiple threats or conservation values. We applied a novel vulnerability assessment tool, the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value, to assess the conservation priority of 300 species of plants and animals in Florida given projections of climate change, human land-use patterns, and sea level rise by the year 2100. We account for multiple sources of uncertainty and prioritize species under five different systems of value, ranging from a primary emphasis on vulnerability to threats to an emphasis on metrics of conservation value such as phylogenetic distinctiveness. Our results reveal remarkable consistency in the prioritization of species across different conservation value systems. Species of high priority include the Miami blue butterfly (Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri, Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii, Florida duskywing butterfly (Ephyriades brunnea floridensis, and Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium. We also identify sources of uncertainty and the types of life history information consistently missing across taxonomic groups. This study characterizes the vulnerabilities to major threats of a broad swath of Florida's biodiversity and provides a system for prioritizing conservation efforts that is quantitative, flexible, and free from hidden value judgments.

  18. BRICK v0.2, a simple, accessible, and transparent model framework for climate and regional sea-level projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. E. Wong

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Simple models can play pivotal roles in the quantification and framing of uncertainties surrounding climate change and sea-level rise. They are computationally efficient, transparent, and easy to reproduce. These qualities also make simple models useful for the characterization of risk. Simple model codes are increasingly distributed as open source, as well as actively shared and guided. Alas, computer codes used in the geosciences can often be hard to access, run, modify (e.g., with regards to assumptions and model components, and review. Here, we describe the simple model framework BRICK (Building blocks for Relevant Ice and Climate Knowledge v0.2 and its underlying design principles. The paper adds detail to an earlier published model setup and discusses the inclusion of a land water storage component. The framework largely builds on existing models and allows for projections of global mean temperature as well as regional sea levels and coastal flood risk. BRICK is written in R and Fortran. BRICK gives special attention to the model values of transparency, accessibility, and flexibility in order to mitigate the above-mentioned issues while maintaining a high degree of computational efficiency. We demonstrate the flexibility of this framework through simple model intercomparison experiments. Furthermore, we demonstrate that BRICK is suitable for risk assessment applications by using a didactic example in local flood risk management.

  19. Anthropogenic sea level rise and adaptation in the Yangtze estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, H.; Chen, J.; Chen, Z.; Ruan, R.; Xu, G.; Zeng, G.; Zhu, J.; Dai, Z.; Gu, S.; Zhang, X.; Wang, H.

    2016-02-01

    Sea level rise is a major projected threat of climate change. There are regional variations in sea level changes, depending on both naturally the tectonic subsidence, geomorphology, naturally changing river inputs and anthropogenic driven forces as artificial reservoir water impoundment within the watershed and urban land subsidence driven by ground water depletion in the river delta. Little is known on regional sea level fall in response to the channel erosion due to the sediment discharge decline by reservoir interception in the upstream watershed, and water level rise driven by anthropogenic measures as the land reclamation, deep waterway regulation and fresh water reservoir construction to the sea level change in estuaries. Changing coastal cities are situated in the delta regions expected to be threatened in various degrees. Shanghai belongs to those cities. Here we show that the anthropogenic driven sea level rise in the Yangtze estuary from the point of view of the continuous hydrodynamic system consisted of river catchment, estuary and coastal sea. Land subsidence is cited as 4 mm/a (2011-2030). Scour depth of the estuarine channel by upstream engineering as Three Gauge Dam is estimated at 2-10 cm (2011-2030). The rise of water level by deep waterway and land reclamation is estimated at 8-10 cm (2011-2030). The relative sea level rise will be speculated about 10 -16 cm (2011-2030), which these anthropogenic sea level changes will be imposed into the absolute sea level rise 2 mm/a and tectonic subsidence 1 mm/a measured in 1990s. The action guideline to the sea level rise strategy in the Shanghai city have been proposed to the Shanghai government as (1) recent actions (2012-2015) to upgrade the city water supply and drainage engineering and protective engineering; (2) interim actions (2016-2020) to improve sea level monitoring and early warning system, and then the special, city, regional planning considering sea level rise; (3) long term actions (2021

  20. Sea ice and millennial-scale climate variability in the Nordic seas 90 kyr ago to present.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoff, Ulrike; Rasmussen, Tine L; Stein, Ruediger; Ezat, Mohamed M; Fahl, Kirsten

    2016-07-26

    In the light of rapidly diminishing sea ice cover in the Arctic during the present atmospheric warming, it is imperative to study the distribution of sea ice in the past in relation to rapid climate change. Here we focus on glacial millennial-scale climatic events (Dansgaard/Oeschger events) using the sea ice proxy IP25 in combination with phytoplankton proxy data and quantification of diatom species in a record from the southeast Norwegian Sea. We demonstrate that expansion and retreat of sea ice varies consistently in pace with the rapid climate changes 90 kyr ago to present. Sea ice retreats abruptly at the start of warm interstadials, but spreads rapidly during cooling phases of the interstadials and becomes near perennial and perennial during cold stadials and Heinrich events, respectively. Low-salinity surface water and the sea ice edge spreads to the Greenland-Scotland Ridge, and during the largest Heinrich events, probably far into the Atlantic Ocean.

  1. The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golledge, N R; Kowalewski, D E; Naish, T R; Levy, R H; Fogwill, C J; Gasson, E G W

    2015-10-15

    Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

  2. Predictability of twentieth century sea-level rise from past data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bittermann, Klaus; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Perrette, Mahé; Vermeer, Martin

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of global sea-level rise is one of the major challenges of climate science. While process-based models are still being improved to capture the complexity of the processes involved, semi-empirical models, exploiting the observed connection between global-mean sea level and global temperature and calibrated with data, have been developed as a complementary approach. Here we investigate whether twentieth century sea-level rise could have been predicted with such models given a knowledge of twentieth century global temperature increase. We find that either proxy or early tide gauge data do not hold enough information to constrain the model parameters well. However, in combination, the use of proxy and tide gauge sea-level data up to 1900 AD allows a good prediction of twentieth century sea-level rise, despite this rise being well outside the rates experienced in previous centuries during the calibration period of the model. The 90% confidence range for the linear twentieth century rise predicted by the semi-empirical model is 13–30 cm, whereas the observed interval (using two tide gauge data sets) is 14–26 cm. (letter)

  3. Non-eustatic controls on sea-level change in semi-enclosed basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major, Candace Olson

    Marginal basins with shallow connections to the world ocean can become isolated from marine influence when eustatic sea level drops below the dividing sill. During isolation the basins may have higher or lower base-levels than the open ocean. This decoupling from global sea level and seawater allows preservation of a distinct history that constrains water balance and erosion in the surrounding continental masses, providing records of continental climates not preserved in marine records. The Mediterranean and Black Seas both experienced isolation stages and significant draw down of base-level below the dividing sill depth. In the Late Miocene (Messinian) a combination of tectonic compression at the marine gateways and eustatic sea level drop isolated the Mediterranean. A negative water balance then caused a lowering of Mediterranean base-level by at least 1500 m, exposing the continental shelves and slopes, and allowing the emergence of bathymetric highs in the central basins. Subaerial exposure features on the summit and evaporite onlap at the base of the Eratosthenes seamount, a carbonate platform in the Levantine basin of the Mediterranean, show the extent of base-level lowering. The Black Sea has periodically become isolated during glacio-eustatic low stands of the Pleistocene. Submerged shoreline deposits and beveled strata during the last isolation exposed the continental shelves out to -105 m below modern sea level. Integration of seismic data, sediment cores, radiocarbon dating, and geochemical analyses indicates that the lowest water level occurred not during the glacial maximum but during the early deglaciation. A brief return toward glacial conditions in the Younger Dryas cold period resulted in increased freshwater input to the Black Sea and a rise in base-level above the outside eustatic level. Subsequent base-level fall to -105 m occurred with resumed warming climate. The first marine invasion, which is seen prominently in the 87Sr/86Sr composition of

  4. Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.

    2017-01-01

    Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

  5. Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L; Fletcher, Charles H; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D

    2017-05-18

    Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

  6. Sea level trend and variability around Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luu, Q. H.; Tkalich, P.; Tay, T. W.

    2015-08-01

    Sea level rise due to climate change is non-uniform globally, necessitating regional estimates. Peninsular Malaysia is located in the middle of Southeast Asia, bounded from the west by the Malacca Strait, from the east by the South China Sea (SCS), and from the south by the Singapore Strait. The sea level along the peninsula may be influenced by various regional phenomena native to the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific oceans. To examine the variability and trend of sea level around the peninsula, tide gauge records and satellite altimetry are analyzed taking into account vertical land movements (VLMs). At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) around Peninsular Malaysia on the order of 5-25 cm are mainly monsoon driven. Sea levels at eastern and western coasts respond differently to the Asian monsoon: two peaks per year in the Malacca Strait due to South Asian-Indian monsoon; an annual cycle in the remaining region mostly due to the East Asian-western Pacific monsoon. At interannual scale, regional sea level variability in the range of ±6 cm is correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). SLAs in the Malacca Strait side are further correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the range of ±5 cm. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Nino events and positive phases of IOD, whilst rises are correlated with La Nina episodes and negative values of the IOD index. At seasonal to interannual scales, we observe the separation of the sea level patterns in the Singapore Strait, between the Raffles Lighthouse and Tanjong Pagar tide stations, likely caused by a dynamic constriction in the narrowest part. During the observation period 1986-2013, average relative rates of sea level rise derived from tide gauges in Malacca Strait and along the east coast of the peninsula are 3.6±1.6 and 3.7±1.1 mm yr-1, respectively. Correcting for respective VLMs (0.8±2.6 and 0.9±2.2 mm yr-1), their corresponding geocentric sea level rise rates

  7. Responding to Sea Level Rise: Does Short-Term Risk Reduction Inhibit Successful Long-Term Adaptation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeler, A. G.; McNamara, D. E.; Irish, J. L.

    2018-04-01

    Most existing coastal climate-adaptation planning processes, and the research supporting them, tightly focus on how to use land use planning, policy tools, and infrastructure spending to reduce risks from rising seas and changing storm conditions. While central to community response to sea level rise, we argue that the exclusive nature of this focus biases against and delays decisions to take more discontinuous, yet proactive, actions to adapt—for example, relocation and aggressive individual protection investments. Public policies should anticipate real estate market responses to risk reduction to avoid large costs—social and financial—when and if sea level rise and other climate-related factors elevate the risks to such high levels that discontinuous responses become the least bad alternative.

  8. Modeling caspian sea water level oscilLations Under Diffrent Scenarioes of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GholamReza Roshan

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978 has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in thecoastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was stimulated. Variations in environmentalparameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, tmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for bothpast (1951-2006 and future (2025-2100 time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software(version 5.3. The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site has increased by ca. 0.17ºC per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21. The Caspian Sea water level has increasedby ca. +36 mm per decade (r=0.82 between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64ºC and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin,temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78ºC and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels projectfuture water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

  9. [Vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under sea-level rise].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Li-Fang; Wang, Ning; Ge, Zhen-Ming; Zhang, Li-Quan

    2014-02-01

    To study the response of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on the coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisite for securing coastal ecosystems. In this paper, the possible impacts of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model and IPCC definition on the vulnerability. An indicator system for vulnerability assessment was established, in which sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, inundation threshold of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability index for the assessment of coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the scenarios of sea-level rise. The vulnerability assessments on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary in 2030 and 2050 were performed under two sea-level rise scenarios (the present sea-level rise trend over recent 30 years and IPCC A1F1 scenario). The results showed that with the projection in 2030 under the present trend of sea-level rise (0.26 cm x a(-1)), 6.6% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.8% and 0.2% of the coastal wetlands were in low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively. With the projection in 2030 under the A1F1 scenario (0.59 cm x a(-1)), 9.0% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.5%, 1.0% and 0.3% of the coastal wetlands were in the low, moderate and high vulnerabilities, respectively.

  10. Mechanisms of long-term mean sea level variability in the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Calafat, Francisco; Øie Nilsen, Jan Even; Richter, Kristin; Jensen, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    We examine mean sea level (MSL) variations in the North Sea on timescales ranging from months to decades under the consideration of different forcing factors since the late 19th century. We use multiple linear regression models, which are validated for the second half of the 20th century against the output of a state-of-the-art tide+surge model (HAMSOM), to determine the barotropic response of the ocean to fluctuations in atmospheric forcing. We demonstrate that local atmospheric forcing mainly triggers MSL variability on timescales up to a few years, with the inverted barometric effect dominating the variability along the UK and Norwegian coastlines and wind (piling up the water along the coast) controlling the MSL variability in the south from Belgium up to Denmark. However, in addition to the large inter-annual sea level variability there is also a considerable fraction of decadal scale variability. We show that on decadal timescales MSL variability in the North Sea mainly reflects steric changes, which are mostly remotely forced. A spatial correlation analysis of altimetry observations and baroclinic ocean model outputs suggests evidence for a coherent signal extending from the Norwegian shelf down to the Canary Islands. This supports the theory of longshore wind forcing along the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic causing coastally trapped waves to propagate along the continental slope. With a combination of oceanographic and meteorological measurements we demonstrate that ~80% of the decadal sea level variability in the North Sea can be explained as response of the ocean to longshore wind forcing, including boundary wave propagation in the Northeast Atlantic. These findings have important implications for (i) detecting significant accelerations in North Sea MSL, (ii) the conceptual set up of regional ocean models in terms of resolution and boundary conditions, and (iii) the development of adequate and realistic regional climate change projections.

  11. Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goelzer, H; Huybrechts, P; Raper, S C B; Loutre, M-F; Goosse, H; Fichefet, T

    2012-01-01

    Sea-level is expected to rise for a long time to come, even after stabilization of human-induced climatic warming. Here we use simulations with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to project sea-level changes over the third millennium forced with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that stabilize by either 2000 or 2100 AD. The model includes 3D thermomechanical models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets coupled to an atmosphere and an ocean model, a global glacier melt algorithm to account for the response of mountain glaciers and ice caps, and a procedure for assessing oceanic thermal expansion from oceanic heat uptake. Four climate change scenarios are considered to determine sea-level commitments. These assume a 21st century increase in greenhouse gases according to SRES scenarios B1, A1B and A2 with a stabilization of the atmospheric composition after the year 2100. One additional scenario assumes 1000 years of constant atmospheric composition from the year 2000 onwards. For our preferred model version, we find an already committed total sea-level rise of 1.1 m by 3000 AD. In experiments with greenhouse gas concentration stabilization at 2100 AD, the total sea-level rise ranges between 2.1 m (B1), 4.1 m (A1B) and 6.8 m (A2). In all scenarios, more than half of this amount arises from the Greenland ice sheet, thermal expansion is the second largest contributor, and the contribution of glaciers and ice caps is small as it is limited by the available ice volume of maximally 25 cm of sea-level equivalent. Additionally, we analysed the sensitivity of the sea-level contributions from an ensemble of nine different model versions that cover a large range of climate sensitivity realized by model parameter variations of the atmosphere–ocean model. Selected temperature indices are found to be good predictors for sea-level contributions from the different components of land ice and oceanic thermal expansion after 1000 years. (letter)

  12. Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Agneta; Meier, H E Markus; Ripszam, Matyas; Rowe, Owen; Wikner, Johan; Haglund, Peter; Eilola, Kari; Legrand, Catherine; Figueroa, Daniela; Paczkowska, Joanna; Lindehoff, Elin; Tysklind, Mats; Elmgren, Ragnar

    2015-06-01

    Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 °C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.

  13. Final project memorandum: sea-level rise modeling handbook: resource guide for resource managers, engineers, and scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.

    2015-01-01

    Coastal wetlands of the Southeastern United States are undergoing retreat and migration from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. Much of the literature describing potential sea-level rise projections and modeling predictions are found in peer-reviewed academic journals or government technical reports largely suited to reading by other Ph.D. scientists who are more familiar or engaged in the climate change debate. Various sea-level rise and coastal wetland models have been developed and applied of different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting habitat and environmental change that have not heretofore been synthesized to aid natural resource managers of their utility and limitations. Training sessions were conducted with Federal land managers with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserves as well as state partners and nongovernmental organizations across the northern Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas to educate and to evaluate user needs and understanding of concepts, data, and modeling tools for projecting sea-level rise and its impact on coastal habitats and wildlife. As a result, this handbook was constructed from these training and feedback sessions with coastal managers and biologists of published decision-support tools and simulation models for sea-level rise and climate change assessments. A simplified tabular context was developed listing the various kinds of decision-support tools and ecological models along with criteria to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic data sets, physical and biological constraints and relationships, datum characteristics of water and land elevation components, utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios, and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. The handbook is designed

  14. Sea level rise in the Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel and impacts of a Severn Barrage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadian, Reza; Olbert, Agnieszka I.; Hartnett, Michael; Falconer, Roger A.

    2014-05-01

    Many research projects in recent years have focused on marine renewable energy devices and structures due to the growing interest in marine renewable energy. These devices and structures have very different life spans. Schemes such as the Severn Barrage in the UK, as originally proposed by the Severn Tidal Power Group (STPG), would be the largest tidal renewable energy generation project in the world and would be operational for well over a century if built. Due to the long working life of some of these marine renewable energy schemes, it is important to study the impacts of climate change on such schemes, and particularly sea level rise. This study focuses on investigating the impacts of sea level rise due to climate change on the largest macro-tidal estuary in the UK, namely the Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel, and the alterations of the impacts and the performance of the Severn Barrage as a result of climate change. A hierarchy of computer models was implemented to identify the more localised impacts of climate change in the region of the study. Moreover, the potential benefits of the barrage on reducing flood risk, as well as the impact of climate change and the barrage on intertidal mudflats were investigated. The model predictions showed that the barrage would reduce flood risk due to the sea level rise. Furthermore, annual power output and the initial reduction in flood risk of the barrage would not be affected by sea level rise.

  15. Effective inundation of continental United States communities with 21st century sea level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina A. Dahl

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Recurrent, tidally driven coastal flooding is one of the most visible signs of sea level rise. Recent studies have shown that such flooding will become more frequent and extensive as sea level continues to rise, potentially altering the landscape and livability of coastal communities decades before sea level rise causes coastal land to be permanently inundated. In this study, we identify US communities that will face effective inundation—defined as having 10% or more of livable land area flooded at least 26 times per year—with three localized sea level rise scenarios based on projections for the 3rd US National Climate Assessment. We present these results in a new, online interactive tool that allows users to explore when and how effective inundation will impact their communities. In addition, we identify communities facing effective inundation within the next 30 years that contain areas of high socioeconomic vulnerability today using a previously published vulnerability index. With the Intermediate-High and Highest sea level rise scenarios, 489 and 668 communities, respectively, would face effective inundation by the year 2100. With these two scenarios, more than half of communities facing effective inundation by 2045 contain areas of current high socioeconomic vulnerability. These results highlight the timeframes that US coastal communities have to respond to disruptive future inundation. The results also underscore the importance of limiting future warming and sea level rise: under the Intermediate-Low scenario, used as a proxy for sea level rise under the Paris Climate Agreement, 199 fewer communities would be effectively inundated by 2100.

  16. DUACS: Toward High Resolution Sea Level Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faugere, Y.; Gerald, D.; Ubelmann, C.; Claire, D.; Pujol, M. I.; Antoine, D.; Desjonqueres, J. D.; Picot, N.

    2016-12-01

    The DUACS system produces, as part of the CNES/SALP project, and the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service, high quality multimission altimetry Sea Level products for oceanographic applications, climate forecasting centers, geophysic and biology communities... These products consist in directly usable and easy to manipulate Level 3 (along-track cross-calibrated SLA) and Level 4 products (multiple sensors merged as maps or time series) and are available in global and regional version (Mediterranean Sea, Arctic, European Shelves …).The quality of the products is today limited by the altimeter technology "Low Resolution Mode" (LRM), and the lack of available observations. The launch of 2 new satellites in 2016, Jason-3 and Sentinel-3A, opens new perspectives. Using the global Synthetic Aperture Radar mode (SARM) coverage of S3A and optimizing the LRM altimeter processing (retracking, editing, ...) will allow us to fully exploit the fine-scale content of the altimetric missions. Thanks to this increase of real time altimetry observations we will also be able to improve Level-4 products by combining these new Level-3 products and new mapping methodology, such as dynamic interpolation. Finally these improvements will benefit to downstream products : geostrophic currents, Lagrangian products, eddy atlas… Overcoming all these challenges will provide major upgrades of Sea Level products to better fulfill user needs.

  17. Climatic anomalies in Northern South China Sea during 1986-1987 El Nino

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen Tegu (Academia Sinica, Beijing (China)); Zhou Qiang

    1990-05-01

    In this paper, the climatic anomalies in Northern South China Sea (NSCS) during 1986-1987 El Nino were analyzed according to meteorological and hydrographic observation data. The results showed that the most apparent anomalies were: (1) continuously weaker monsoon strength, (2) continuously much higher South China Sea High Pressure strength; (3) in 1987 only six typhoons occurred in NSCS (four less than normal), with the first typhoon occurring on 25 June, (about one month later than usual); (4) positive air temperature anomaly, negative annual precipitation and evaporation anomaly; (5) sea surface temperature and surface salinity anomaly was positive; (6) monthly mean sea level was 1 to 10cm lower than normal.

  18. Mental health issues from rising sea level in a remote coastal region of the Solomon Islands: current and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asugeni, James; MacLaren, David; Massey, Peter D; Speare, Rick

    2015-12-01

    There is little published research about mental health and climate change in the Pacific, including Solomon Islands. Solomon Islands has one of the highest rates of sea-level rise globally. The aim of this research was to document mental health issues related to sea-level rise for people in East Malaita, Solomon Islands. A cross-sectional study was carried out in six low-lying villages in East Malaita, Solomon Islands. The researcher travelled to villages by dugout canoe. In addition to quantitative, closed-ended questions, open-ended questions with villagers explored individual and community responses to rising sea level. Of 60 people asked, 57 completed the questionnaire. Of these, 90% reported having seen a change in the weather patterns. Nearly all participants reported that sea-level rise is affecting them and their family and is causing fear and worry on a personal and community level. Four themes emerged from the qualitative analysis: experience of physical impacts of climate change; worry about the future; adaptation to climate change; government response needed. Given predictions of ongoing sea-level rise in the Pacific it is essential that more research is conducted to further understand the human impact of climate change for small island states which will inform local, provincial and national-level mental health responses. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

  19. Impact of sea level rise on tide gate function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Sean; Miskewitz, Robert

    2013-01-01

    Sea level rise resulting from climate change and land subsidence is expected to severely impact the duration and associated damage resulting from flooding events in tidal communities. These communities must continuously invest resources for the maintenance of existing structures and installation of new flood prevention infrastructure. Tide gates are a common flood prevention structure for low-lying communities in the tidal zone. Tide gates close during incoming tides to prevent inundation from downstream water propagating inland and open during outgoing tides to drain upland areas. Higher downstream mean sea level elevations reduce the effectiveness of tide gates by impacting the hydraulics of the system. This project developed a HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS model of an existing tide gate structure and its upland drainage area in the New Jersey Meadowlands to simulate the impact of rising mean sea level elevations on the tide gate's ability to prevent upstream flooding. Model predictions indicate that sea level rise will reduce the tide gate effectiveness resulting in longer lasting and deeper flood events. The results indicate that there is a critical point in the sea level elevation for this local area, beyond which flooding scenarios become dramatically worse and would have a significantly negative impact on the standard of living and ability to do business in one of the most densely populated areas of America.

  20. NODC Standard Product: International ocean atlas Volume 12 - Climatic atlas of the North Pacific Seas 2009 (NODC Accession 0098576)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This Atlas contains monthly climatic charts of temperature, salinity, and oxygen at the sea surface and at standard depth levels for the Bering Sea, Sea of Okhotsk,...

  1. Shoreline change and potential sea level rise impacts in a climate hazardous location in southeast coast of India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayanthi, Marappan; Thirumurthy, Selvasekar; Samynathan, Muthusamy; Duraisamy, Muthusamy; Muralidhar, Moturi; Ashokkumar, Jangam; Vijayan, Koyadan Kizhakkedath

    2017-12-28

    Climate change impact on the environment makes the coastal areas vulnerable and demands the evaluation of such susceptibility. Historical changes in the shoreline positions and inundation based on projected sea-level scenarios of 0.5 and 1 m were assessed for Nagapattinam District, a low-lying coastal area in the southeast coast of India, using high-resolution Shuttle Radar Topography Mission data; multi-dated Landsat satellite images of 1978, 1991, 2003, and 2015; and census data of 2011. Image processing, geographical information system, and digital shoreline analysis system methods were used in the study. The shoreline variation indicated that erosion rate varied at different time scales. The end point rate indicated the highest mean erosion of - 3.12 m/year, occurred in 73% of coast between 1978 and 1991. Weighted linear regression analysis revealed that the coast length of 83% was under erosion at a mean rate of - 2.11 m/year from 1978 to 2015. Sea level rise (SLR) impact indicated that the coastal area of about 14,122 ha from 225 villages and 31,318 ha from 272 villages would be permanently inundated for the SLR of 0.5 and 1 m, respectively, which includes agriculture, mangroves, wetlands, aquaculture, and forest lands. The loss of coastal wetlands and its associated productivity will severely threaten more than half the coastal population. Adaptation measures in people participatory mode, integrated into coastal zone management with a focus on sub-regional coastal activities, are needed to respond to the consequences of climate change.

  2. Accelerated sea level rise and Florida Current transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Park

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The Florida Current is the headwater of the Gulf Stream and is a component of the North Atlantic western boundary current from which a geostrophic balance between sea surface height and mass transport directly influence coastal sea levels along the Florida Straits. A linear regression of daily Florida Current transport estimates does not find a significant change in transport over the last decade; however, a nonlinear trend extracted from empirical mode decomposition (EMD suggests a 3 Sv decline in mean transport. This decline is consistent with observed tide gauge records in Florida Bay and the straits exhibiting an acceleration of mean sea level (MSL rise over the decade. It is not known whether this recent change represents natural variability or the onset of the anticipated secular decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC; nonetheless, such changes have direct impacts on the sensitive ecological systems of the Everglades as well as the climate of western Europe and eastern North America.

  3. Regionalization of climate model results for the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kauker, F.

    1999-07-01

    A dynamical downscaling is presented that allows an estimation of potential effects of climate change on the North Sea. Therefore, the ocean general circulation model OPYC is adapted for application on a shelf by adding a lateral boundary formulation and a tide model. In this set-up the model is forced, first, with data from the ECMWF reanalysis for model validation and the study of the natural variability, and, second, with data from climate change experiments to estimate the effects of climate change on the North Sea. (orig.)

  4. Present day sea level changes: observation and causes; Les variations actuelles du niveau de la mer: observations et causes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lombard, A

    2005-11-15

    Whereas sea level has changed little over the last 2000 years, it has risen at a rate of about 2 mm/year during the 20. century. This unexpected sea level rise has been attributed to the anthropogenic global warming, recorded over several decades. Sea level variations have been measured globally and precisely for about 12 years due to satellite altimeter missions Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1. These observations indicate a global mean sea level rise of about 3 mm/year since 1993, a value significantly larger than observed during previous decades. Recent observations have allowed us to quantify the various climatic factors contributing to observed sea level change: thermal expansion of sea water due to ocean warming, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in the land water reservoirs. A water budget based on these new observations allows us to partly explain the observed sea level rise. In particular, we show that the thermal expansion explains only 25% of the secular sea level rise as recorded by tide-gauges over the last 50 years, while it contributes about 50% of sea level rise observed over the last decade. Meanwhile, recent studies show that glacier and ice sheet melting could contribute the equivalent of 1 mm/year in sea level rise over the last decade. In addition, the high regional variability of sea level trends revealed by satellite altimetry is mainly due to thermal expansion. There is also an important decadal spatio-temporal variability in the ocean thermal expansion over the last 50 years, which seems to be controlled by natural climate fluctuations. We question for the first time the link between the decadal fluctuations in the ocean thermal expansion and in the land reservoirs, and indeed their climatic contribution to sea level change. Finally a preliminary analysis of GRACE spatial gravimetric observations over the oceans allows us to estimate the seasonal variations in mean sea level due to ocean water mass balance variations

  5. Sinking into the Sea? Climate Change and AOSIS Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højland, Camille Marie Risager; Svendsen, Gert Tinggaard

    2017-01-01

    that a small actor like AOSIS plays in protecting the citizens of its member states rather than free ride on larger actors. Which strategies should AOSIS use to encourage an even more ambitious climate policy in the future? We suggest five relevant strategies: 1) Introduction of sanctions in the Paris...... Agreement, 2) A CO2 tax, 3) Subsidising new green technology, 4) That AOSIS should look for coalition partners, e.g. China, and 5) Even stronger focus on the linkage between climate change and future migration. Employing such strategies may save the SIDS from sinking into the sea and, at the same time......, secure the target level from the Paris Agreement....

  6. A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change: examining future sea level rise in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankel Davis, Kyle; Bhattachan, Abinash; D’Odorico, Paolo; Suweis, Samir

    2018-06-01

    Climate change is expected to impact the habitability of many places around the world in significant and unprecedented ways in the coming decades. While previous studies have provided estimates of populations potentially exposed to various climate impacts, little work has been done to assess the number of people that may actually be displaced or where they will choose to go. Here we modify a diffusion-based model of human mobility in combination with population, geographic, and climatic data to estimate the sources, destinations, and flux of potential migrants as driven by sea level rise (SLR) in Bangladesh in the years 2050 and 2100. Using only maps of population and elevation, we predict that 0.9 million people (by year 2050) to 2.1 million people (by year 2100) could be displaced by direct inundation and that almost all of this movement will occur locally within the southern half of the country. We also find that destination locations should anticipate substantial additional demands on jobs (594 000), housing (197 000), and food (783 × 109 calories) by mid-century as a result of those displaced by SLR. By linking the sources of migrants displaced by SLR with their likely destinations, we demonstrate an effective approach for predicting climate-driven migrant flows, especially in data-limited settings.

  7. Regional sea level projections with observed gauge, altimeter and reconstructed data along China coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, L.; Shi, H.; Zhang, S.

    2017-12-01

    Acting as the typical shelf seas in northwest Pacific Ocean, regional sea level along China coasts exhibits complicated and multiscale spatial-temporal characteristics under circumstance of global change. In this paper, sea level variability is investigated with tide gauges records, satellite altimetry data, reconstructed sea surface height, and CMIP simulation fields. Sea level exhibits the interannual variability imposing on a remarkable sea level rising in the China seas and coastal region, although its seasonal signals are significant as the results of global ocean. Sea level exhibits faster rising rate during the satellite altimetry era, nearly twice to the rate during the last sixty years. AVISO data and reconstructed sea surface heights illustrate good correlation coefficient, more than 0.8. Interannual sea level variation is mainly modulated by the low-frequency variability of wind fields over northern Pacific Ocean by local and remote processes. Meanwhile sea level varies obviously by the transport fluctuation and bimodality path of Kuroshio. Its variability possibly linked to internal variability of the ocean-atmosphere system influenced by ENSO oscillation. China Sea level have been rising during the 20th century, and are projected to continue to rise during this century. Sea level can reach the highest extreme level in latter half of 21st century. Modeled sea level including regional sea level projection combined with the IPCC climate scenarios play a significant role on coastal storm surge evolution. The vulnerable regions along the ECS coast will suffer from the increasing storm damage with sea level variations.

  8. Sea level change in Great Britain between 1859 and the present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth, Philip L.

    2018-04-01

    Short records of sea level measurements by the Ordnance Survey at 31 locations in 1859-1860, together with recent Mean Sea Level (MSL) information from the UK tide gauge network, have been used to estimate the average rates of sea level change around the coast of Great Britain since the mid-19th century. Rates are found to be approximately 1 mm yr-1 in excess of those expected for the present day based on geological information, providing evidence for a climate-change related component of the increase in UK sea level. In turn, the rates of change of MSL for the past 60 yr are estimated to be ˜1 mm yr-1 in excess of the long-term rates since 1859, suggesting an acceleration in the rate of sea level rise between the 19th and 20th/21st centuries. Although the historical records are very short (approximately a fortnight), this exercise in `data archaeology' shows how valuable to research even the shortest records can be, as long as the measurements were made by competent people and the datums of the measurements were fully documented.

  9. Assessing the role of internal climate variability in Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has the potential to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to AIS mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing the long-term risk of SLR. However, the predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and the internal variability that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of internal variability on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. In this study, we quantify the effect of internal variability on the AIS evolutions by using climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. We find that internal variability of climate fields, particularly atmospheric fields, among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses. Our results show that the internal variability can cause about 80 mm differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean contribution of 380-450 mm. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in the ice sheet model does not produce realistic simulations of the ice loss. Instead, it significantly delays the onset of retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07-0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. Therefore, because the uncertainty caused by internal variability is irreducible, we seek to highlight a critical need to assess the role of internal variability in projecting the AIS loss over the next few centuries. By quantifying the impact of internal variability on AIS contribution to SLR, policy makers can obtain more robust estimates of SLR and implement suitable adaptation strategies.

  10. Sea Level Rise in the 21st Century: Will projections ever become reliable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willis, J. K.

    2014-12-01

    Global sea level rise has the potential to become one of the most costly and least well predicted impacts of human caused climate change. Unlike global surface temperature, the spread of possible scenarios (as little as 1 foot and as much as 6 feet by 2100) is not due to uncertainty about future rates of greenhouse gas emissions, but rather by a fundamental lack of knowledge about how the major ice sheets will behave in a warming climate. Clearly improved projections of sea level rise should become a major research priority in the next decade. At present, controversial techniques based on comparison with historical analogs and rates of recent warming and sea level rise are often used to create projections for the 21st Century. However, many in the scientific community feel that reliable projections must be based on a sound knowledge of the physics governing sea level rise, and particularly ice sheet behavior. In particular, large portions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet rest on solid earth that sits below sea level. These regions may be threatened, not by atmospheric warming or changes in precipitation, but rather by direct forcing from the ocean. Fledgling efforts to understand these ocean ice interactions are already underway, as are efforts to make improved models of ice sheet behavior. However a great deal of work is still needed before widely accepted projections of sea level rise become a reality. This paper will highlight the hurdles to making such projections today and suggest ways forward in this critical area of research.

  11. A study on Sea Level Change for Coast of Korean Peninsular from Global Warming and Its Influences I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, K.W.; Kim, J.H. [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2001-12-01

    The Third Assessment Report(2001) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) concluded that the global warming will be accelerated during the 21st century due to the human activities. The projected warming will increase the steric sea level rise which have large adverse effects on the natural and human systems in the coastal zone. This study intends to assess the sea level change and potential impacts of the future sea level rise on the coastal zone of the Korean Peninsula in which much socioeconomic activities have been already occurred. The contents of the present study include reviews on climate change and its impact, assessments of the current and future sea level change in the global scale and seas ne,ar Korea, and impact assessment methodology. The second year study(2002) will be focused on the impact assessment on the coastal zone of the Korea, especially on the inundation problem on human dimension due to the steric sea level rise, storm surge, and tide. Based on the tide gauge data, IPCC(2001) assessed the global average sea level rise during the 20th century is in the range of 10{approx}20cm, which is higher than that of 19th century. The contributing elements to the sea level rise are in the order of ocean thermal expansion, melting of glacier, mass balance change of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and surface and ground water storage and permafrost change. The satellite altimeter data during l990s shows higher trend than the mean trend of tide gauge data during 20th century. The recent high trend of the sea level rise by the altimetry is not clear whether it represents the recent acceleration of the global sea level the differences of the two observation methods, or short observation period of altimetry. In the 21st century, the global mean sea level is projected to increase much due to the acceleration of the warming. Based on the 35 IPCC emission scenarios, the sea level rise in the 21st century will be in the range of 9{approx}88

  12. Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takekawa, John Y.; Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Spragens, Kyle A.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The International Panel on Climate Change has identified coastal ecosystems as areas that will be disproportionally affected by climate change. Current sea-level rise projections range widely with 0.57 to 1.9 meters increase in mea sea level by 2100. The expected accelerated rate of sea-level rise through the 21st century will put many coastal ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas. We assessed marsh accretion and plant community state changes through 2100 at 12 tidal salt marshes around San Francisco Bay estuary with a sea-level rise response model. Detailed ground elevation, vegetation, and water level data were collected at all sites between 2008 and 2011 and used as model inputs. Sediment cores (taken by Callaway and others, 2012) at four sites around San Francisco Bay estuary were used to estimate accretion rates. A modification of the Callaway and others (1996) model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), was utilized to run sea-level rise response models for all sites. With a mean sea level rise of 1.24 m by 2100, WARMER projected that the vast majority, 95.8 percent (1,942 hectares), of marsh area in our study will lose marsh plant communities by 2100 and to transition to a relative elevation range consistent with mudflat habitat. Three marshes were projected to maintain marsh vegetation to 2100, but they only composed 4.2 percent (85 hectares) of the total marsh area surveyed.

  13. Arctic Sea Level Reconstruction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde

    Reconstruction of historical Arctic sea level is very difficult due to the limited coverage and quality of tide gauge and altimetry data in the area. This thesis addresses many of these issues, and discusses strategies to help achieve a stable and plausible reconstruction of Arctic sea level from...... 1950 to today.The primary record of historical sea level, on the order of several decades to a few centuries, is tide gauges. Tide gauge records from around the world are collected in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database, and includes data along the Arctic coasts. A reasonable...... amount of data is available along the Norwegian and Russian coasts since 1950, and most published research on Arctic sea level extends cautiously from these areas. Very little tide gauge data is available elsewhere in the Arctic, and records of a length of several decades,as generally recommended for sea...

  14. Sea level ~400 000 years ago (MIS 11: analogue for present and future sea-level?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Q. Bowen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Comparison of the sea-level today with that of 400 000 years ago (MIS 11, when the Earth's orbital characteristics were similar may provide, under conditions of natural variability, indications of future sea-level during the present interglacial. Then, as now, orbital eccentricity was low and precession dampened. Evidence for MIS 11 sea-level occurs on uplifting coastlines where shorelines with geochronological ages have been preserved. The sea-level term and the uplift term may be separated with an "uplift correction" formula. This discovers the original sea-level at which the now uplifted shoreline was fashioned. Estimates are based on average uplift rates of the "last interglacial" sea-level (MIS 5.5 using a range of estimates for sea-level and age at that time at different locations. These, with varying secular tectonic regimes in different ocean basins, provide a band of estimates for the MIS 11 sea-level. They do not support the hypothesis of an MIS 11 sea-level at ~20 m, and instead show that it was closer to its present level.

  15. Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, Christopher M.; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yip, Stan

    2015-01-01

    The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

  16. SEA Screening of voluntary Climate Change Plans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kørnøv, Lone; Wejs, Anja

    2013-01-01

    that discretionary judgement takes place and will impact on the screening decision. This article examines the results of discretion involved in screening of climate change plans (CCPs) in a Danish context. These years voluntary CCPs are developed as a response to the global and local emergence of both mitigation...... rests upon a docu- mentary study of Danish CCPs, interviews with a lawyer and ministerial key person and informal discussions between researchers, practitioners and lawyers on whether climate change plans are covered by SEA legislation and underlying reasons for the present practice. Based on a critical...... and adap- tation, and the voluntary commitment by the local authorities is an indication of an emerging norm of climate change as an important issue. This article takes its point of departure in the observation that SEA is not undertaken for these voluntary CCPs. The critical analysis of this phenomenon...

  17. Preliminary investigation of the effects of sea-level rise on groundwater levels in New Haven, Connecticut

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerklie, David M.; Mullaney, John R.; Stone, Janet R.; Skinner, Brian J.; Ramlow, Matthew A.

    2012-01-01

    Global sea level rose about 0.56 feet (ft) (170 millimeters (mm)) during the 20th century. Since the 1960s, sea level has risen at Bridgeport, Connecticut, about 0.38 ft (115 mm), at a rate of 0.008 ft (2.56 mm + or - 0.58 mm) per year. With regional subsidence, and with predicted global climate change, sea level is expected to continue to rise along the northeast coast of the United States through the 21st century. Increasing sea levels will cause groundwater levels in coastal areas to rise in order to adjust to the new conditions. Some regional climate models predict wetter climate in the northeastern United States under some scenarios. Scenarios for the resulting higher groundwater levels have the potential to inundate underground infrastructure in lowlying coastal cities. New Haven is a coastal city in Connecticut surrounded and bisected by tidally affected waters. Monitoring of water levels in wells in New Haven from August 2009 to July 2010 indicates the complex effects of urban influence on groundwater levels. The response of groundwater levels to recharge and season varied considerably from well to well. Groundwater temperatures varied seasonally, but were warmer than what was typical for Connecticut, and they seem to reflect the influence of the urban setting, including the effects of conduits for underground utilities. Specific conductance was elevated in many of the wells, indicating the influence of urban activities or seawater in Long Island Sound. A preliminary steady-state model of groundwater flow for part of New Haven was constructed using MODFLOW to simulate current groundwater levels (2009-2010) and future groundwater levels based on scenarios with a rise of 3 ft (0.91 meters (m)) in sea level, which is predicted for the end of the 21st century. An additional simulation was run assuming a 3-ft rise in sea level combined with a 12-percent increase in groundwater recharge. The model was constructed from existing hydrogeologic information for the

  18. Diagnosing sea ice from the north american multi model ensemble and implications on mid-latitude winter climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elders, Akiko; Pegion, Kathy

    2017-12-01

    Arctic sea ice plays an important role in the climate system, moderating the exchange of energy and moisture between the ocean and the atmosphere. An emerging area of research investigates how changes, particularly declines, in sea ice extent (SIE) impact climate in regions local to and remote from the Arctic. Therefore, both observations and model estimates of sea ice become important. This study investigates the skill of sea ice predictions from models participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project. Three of the models in this project provide sea-ice predictions. The ensemble average of these models is used to determine seasonal climate impacts on surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) in remote regions such as the mid-latitudes. It is found that declines in fall SIE are associated with cold temperatures in the mid-latitudes and pressure patterns across the Arctic and mid-latitudes similar to the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). These findings are consistent with other studies that have investigated the relationship between declines in SIE and mid-latitude weather and climate. In an attempt to include additional NMME models for sea-ice predictions, a proxy for SIE is used to estimate ice extent in the remaining models, using sea surface temperature (SST). It is found that SST is a reasonable proxy for SIE estimation when compared to model SIE forecasts and observations. The proxy sea-ice estimates also show similar relationships to mid-latitude temperature and pressure as the actual sea-ice predictions.

  19. Effects of Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations on mangrove population dynamics: a lesson from Sonneratia alba.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yuchen; Li, Jianfang; Yang, Shuhuan; Li, Xinnian; Fang, Lu; Zhong, Cairong; Duke, Norman C; Zhou, Renchao; Shi, Suhua

    2017-01-18

    A large-scale systematical investigation of the influence of Pleistocene climate oscillation on mangrove population dynamics could enrich our knowledge about the evolutionary history during times of historical climate change, which in turn may provide important information for their conservation. In this study, phylogeography of a mangrove tree Sonneratia alba was studied by sequencing three chloroplast fragments and seven nuclear genes. A low level of genetic diversity at the population level was detected across its range, especially at the range margins, which was mainly attributed to the steep sea-level drop and associated climate fluctuations during the Pleistocene glacial periods. Extremely small effective population size (Ne) was inferred in populations from both eastern and western Malay Peninsula (44 and 396, respectively), mirroring the fragility of mangrove plants and their paucity of robustness against future climate perturbations and human activity. Two major genetic lineages of high divergence were identified in the two mangrove biodiversity centres: the Indo-Malesia and Australasia regions. The estimated splitting time between these two lineages was 3.153 million year ago (MYA), suggesting a role for pre-Pleistocene events in shaping the major diversity patterns of mangrove species. Within the Indo-Malesia region, a subdivision was implicated between the South China Sea (SCS) and the remaining area with a divergence time of 1.874 MYA, corresponding to glacial vicariance when the emerged Sunda Shelf halted genetic exchange between the western and eastern coasts of the Malay Peninsula during Pleistocene sea-level drops. Notably, genetic admixture was observed in populations at the boundary regions, especially in the two populations near the Malacca Strait, indicating secondary contact between divergent lineages during interglacial periods. These interregional genetic exchanges provided ample opportunity for the re-use of standing genetic variation

  20. Intermittent sea-level acceleration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivieri, M.; Spada, G.

    2013-10-01

    Using instrumental observations from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), we provide a new assessment of the global sea-level acceleration for the last ~ 2 centuries (1820-2010). Our results, obtained by a stack of tide gauge time series, confirm the existence of a global sea-level acceleration (GSLA) and, coherently with independent assessments so far, they point to a value close to 0.01 mm/yr2. However, differently from previous studies, we discuss how change points or abrupt inflections in individual sea-level time series have contributed to the GSLA. Our analysis, based on methods borrowed from econometrics, suggests the existence of two distinct driving mechanisms for the GSLA, both involving a minority of tide gauges globally. The first effectively implies a gradual increase in the rate of sea-level rise at individual tide gauges, while the second is manifest through a sequence of catastrophic variations of the sea-level trend. These occurred intermittently since the end of the 19th century and became more frequent during the last four decades.

  1. Sea level trend and variability around the Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luu, Q. H.; Tkalich, P.; Tay, T. W.

    2014-06-01

    Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. Resulting sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); while long-term sea level trend is related to global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability around the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 1.6 mm yr-1 and 2.7 ± 1.0 mm yr-1, respectively. Allowing for corresponding vertical land movements (VLM; 0.8 ± 2.6 mm yr-1 and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm yr-1), their absolute SLR rates are 3.2 ± 4.2 mm yr-1 and 3.6 ± 3.2 mm yr-1, respectively. For the common period 1993-2009, absolute SLR rates obtained from both tide gauge and satellite altimetry in Peninsular Malaysia are similar; and they are slightly higher than the global tendency. It further underlines that VLM should be taken into account to get better estimates of SLR observations. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian coast in the range of ±5 cm with a very high correlation. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies mainly in the Malacca Strait in the range of ±2 cm with a high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index

  2. Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: A joint analysis for sea level rise and tourism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bigano, A. [Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Venice (Italy)]|[Ricerche per l' Economia e la Finanza, Milan (Italy); Bosello, F.; Roson, R. [Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Venice (Italy)]|[Ca' Foscari Univ. of Venice (Italy); Tol, R.S.J. [Hamburg Univ. and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg (Germay). Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change]|[Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands). Inst. for Environmental Studies]|[Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2007-07-01

    Climate change impacts of human life have well defined and different origins. Nevertheless in the determination of their final effects, especially those involving social-economic responses, interactions among impacts are likely to play an important role. This paper is one of the first attempts to disentangle and highlight the role of these interactions. It focuses on the economic assessment of two specific climate change impacts: sea-level rise and changes in tourism flows. By using a CGE model the two impacts categories are first analyzed separately and then jointly. Comparing the results it is shown that, even though qualitatively joint effects follow the outcomes of the disjoint exercises, quantitatively impact interaction do play a significant role. Moreover it has also been possible to disentangle the relative contribution of each single impact category to the final result. In the case under scrutiny demand shocks induced by changes in tourism flows outweigh the supply side shock induced by the loss of coastal land.

  3. The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Machguth, H.; Rastner, P.; Bolch, T.

    2013-01-01

    We calculate the future sea-level rise contribution from the surface mass balance of all of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps (GICs, ~90 000 km2) using a simplified energy balance model which is driven by three future climate scenarios from the regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2 and MAR...... experiments suggest that mass loss could be higher by 20–30% if a strong lowering of the surface albedo were to take place in the future. It is shown that the sea-level rise contribution from the north-easterly regions of Greenland is reduced by increasing precipitation while mass loss in the southern half...... feedback mechanisms are considered. The mass loss of all GICs by 2098 is calculated to be 2016 ± 129 Gt (HIRHAM5 forcing), 2584 ± 109 Gt (RACMO2) and 3907 ± 108 Gt (MAR). This corresponds to a total contribution to sea-level rise of 5.8 ± 0.4, 7.4 ± 0.3 and 11.2 ± 0.3 mm, respectively. Sensitivity...

  4. Global warming and sea level rise. Chikyu Ondanka to kaimen josho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mimura, N [Ibaraki University, Ibaraki (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

    1993-10-15

    This paper describes the following matters on the problems of global warming and sea level rise. The first evaluation report published by the inter-government panel on climate change (IPCC) in 1990 estimates that, if emission of greenhouse effect gas keeps increasing at the present rate, the air temperature and the average sea level would rise by 3[degree]C and 65 centimeters, respectively by 2100. Global warming would not only result in rise of the sea level, but also accompany changes in strengths and routes of tropical low pressure areas, and precipitation patterns. Downstream areas of large rivers and island countries on coral reefs may have a risk of getting submerged. Countries having coasts developed to high densities (Japan, for example) would be subjected to a high potential effect. An 'East Hemisphere International Conference on Sea Level Rising Problem' was held in Japan in August 1993 as part of the works to prepare the second evaluation report of the IPCC (publication scheduled for 1995). The conference was attended by 24 countries, and 43 study results were reported. 4 figs.

  5. Can community structure track sea-level rise? Stress and competitive controls in tidal wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schile, Lisa M; Callaway, John C; Suding, Katharine N; Kelly, N Maggi

    2017-02-01

    Climate change impacts, such as accelerated sea-level rise, will affect stress gradients, yet impacts on competition/stress tolerance trade-offs and shifts in distributions are unclear. Ecosystems with strong stress gradients, such as estuaries, allow for space-for-time substitutions of stress factors and can give insight into future climate-related shifts in both resource and nonresource stresses. We tested the stress gradient hypothesis and examined the effect of increased inundation stress and biotic interactions on growth and survival of two congeneric wetland sedges, Schoenoplectus acutus and Schoenoplectus americanus . We simulated sea-level rise across existing marsh elevations and those not currently found to reflect potential future sea-level rise conditions in two tidal wetlands differing in salinity. Plants were grown individually and together at five tidal elevations, the lowest simulating an 80-cm increase in sea level, and harvested to assess differences in biomass after one growing season. Inundation time, salinity, sulfides, and redox potential were measured concurrently. As predicted, increasing inundation reduced biomass of the species commonly found at higher marsh elevations, with little effect on the species found along channel margins. The presence of neighbors reduced total biomass of both species, particularly at the highest elevation; facilitation did not occur at any elevation. Contrary to predictions, we documented the competitive superiority of the stress tolerator under increased inundation, which was not predicted by the stress gradient hypothesis. Multifactor manipulation experiments addressing plant response to accelerated climate change are integral to creating a more realistic, valuable, and needed assessment of potential ecosystem response. Our results point to the important and unpredicted synergies between physical stressors, which are predicted to increase in intensity with climate change, and competitive forces on biomass as

  6. Possible impact of rising sea levels on vector-borne infectious diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Surendran Sinnathamby N

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Vector-borne infectious diseases are a significant cause of human and animal mortality and morbidity. Modeling studies predict that changes in climate that accompany global warming will alter the transmission risk of many vector-borne infectious diseases in different parts of the world. Global warming will also raise sea levels, which will lead to an increase in saline and brackish water bodies in coastal areas. The potential impact of rising sea levels, as opposed to climate change, on the prevalence of vector-borne infectious diseases has hitherto been unrecognised. Presentation of the hypothesis Mosquito species possessing salinity-tolerant larvae and pupae, and capable of transmitting arboviruses and parasites are found in many parts of the world. An expansion of brackish and saline water bodies in coastal areas, associated with rising sea levels, can increase densities of salinity-tolerant vector mosquitoes and lead to the adaptation of freshwater vectors to breed in brackish and saline waters. The breeding of non-mosquito vectors may also be influenced by salinity changes in coastal habitats. Higher vector densities can increase transmission of vector-borne infectious diseases in coastal localities, which can then spread to other areas. Testing the hypothesis The demonstration of increases in vector populations and disease prevalence that is related to an expansion of brackish/saline water bodies in coastal areas will provide the necessary supportive evidence. However the implementation of specific vector and disease control measures to counter the threat will confound the expected findings. Implications of the hypothesis Rising sea levels can act synergistically with climate change and then interact in a complex manner with other environmental and socio-economic factors to generate a greater potential for the transmission of vector-borne infectious diseases. The resulting health impacts are likely to be particularly

  7. Sea level changes along the Indian coast: Observations and projections

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Kumar, K.R.; Fernandes, S.E.; Michael, G.S.; Patwardhan, S.K.

    : CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA CURRE NT SCIENCE, VOL. 90, NO. 3, 10 FEBRUARY 2006 *For correspondence. (e - mail: unni@darya.nio.org ) Sea level changes along the Indian coast: Observ a tions and projections A. S. Unnikrishnan 1, *, K. Rupa Kumar... with the occu r rence of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and associated storm surges in a future climate scenario. Projections for the future are needed for decision making by planners and policy makers. Future pr o jecti ons are made for different...

  8. Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Mitrovica, Jerry X

    2015-01-22

    Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 ± 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records.The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future sea-level rise.

  9. Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke P; Riva, Riccardo E M; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John C

    2016-11-22

    Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This "2 °C" threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 °C goal. By 2040, with a 2 °C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5 °C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age.

  10. Expected extreme sea levels at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp up until year 2100

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brydsten, Lars; Engqvist, Anders; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Lindborg, Tobias

    2009-01-01

    Literature data on factors that can affect the highest expected shoreline during the operational lifetime of a final repository up until ca 2100 AD have been compiled for Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp. The study takes into consideration eustasy (global sea level), isostasy (isostatic rebound) and their trends, as well as regional (North Sea) and local (Baltic Sea) annual extremes of today's sea levels and those in year 2100. The most uncertain factor of these is the future global sea level change. For this factor, three possible scenarios have been included from the literature, forming an rough uncertainty interval around a case with an 'intermediate' global sea level. To this end, the study thus makes use of information on global sea level change that has been published since the IPCC's (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) most recent report (2007). The local cumulative impact on the shoreline of the eustatic and isostatic components for both the Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp coastal areas is that the maximum sea level occurs at the end of the investigation period, by year 2100. The interaction of these estimates is discussed in terms of coastal oceanographic aspects and estimated return periods for local extreme sea level-impacting events, including estimated storm surge. Maximum sea levels in year 2100 based on the sea level rise estimates by Rahmstorf are + 254 cm for Forsmark and + 297 cm for Laxemar/Simpevarp, both of these levels with an uncertainty interval of about ± 70 cm. The numbers apply for the worst possible case in regard to future sea level rise, and for occasions of short duration during heavy storms. In this context it is important to note that the data on which these estimates are based are the subject of intense research, and that revisions are therefore to be expected

  11. Expected extreme sea levels at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp up until year 2100

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars (Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden)); Engqvist, Anders (Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Lindborg, Tobias (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2009-01-15

    Literature data on factors that can affect the highest expected shoreline during the operational lifetime of a final repository up until ca 2100 AD have been compiled for Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp. The study takes into consideration eustasy (global sea level), isostasy (isostatic rebound) and their trends, as well as regional (North Sea) and local (Baltic Sea) annual extremes of today's sea levels and those in year 2100. The most uncertain factor of these is the future global sea level change. For this factor, three possible scenarios have been included from the literature, forming an rough uncertainty interval around a case with an 'intermediate' global sea level. To this end, the study thus makes use of information on global sea level change that has been published since the IPCC's (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) most recent report (2007). The local cumulative impact on the shoreline of the eustatic and isostatic components for both the Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp coastal areas is that the maximum sea level occurs at the end of the investigation period, by year 2100. The interaction of these estimates is discussed in terms of coastal oceanographic aspects and estimated return periods for local extreme sea level-impacting events, including estimated storm surge. Maximum sea levels in year 2100 based on the sea level rise estimates by Rahmstorf are + 254 cm for Forsmark and + 297 cm for Laxemar/Simpevarp, both of these levels with an uncertainty interval of about +- 70 cm. The numbers apply for the worst possible case in regard to future sea level rise, and for occasions of short duration during heavy storms. In this context it is important to note that the data on which these estimates are based are the subject of intense research, and that revisions are therefore to be expected

  12. On the Baltic Sea Response to Climate Change: Model Implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omstedt, Anders; Leppaeranta, Matti

    1999-01-01

    The sensitivity of the Baltic Sea to climate change is reviewed on the basis of recent model studies. In general, the presently available models indicate that the Baltic Sea is a most sensitive system to climate change, particularly in air temperature, wind, fresh water inflow and the barotropic forcing in the entrance area. Available scenarios for ice conditions and climate warming around year 2100 show 2-3 months' shortening of the ice season in the Bothnian Bay and about 0.4 m decrease in the maximum annual ice thickness. Corresponding scenarios for climate cooling show 1-2 months' longer ice season in the Bothnian Bay and 0.2 - 0.5 m increase in the maximum annual ice thickness

  13. Automated parameter tuning applied to sea ice in a global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roach, Lettie A.; Tett, Simon F. B.; Mineter, Michael J.; Yamazaki, Kuniko; Rae, Cameron D.

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates the hypothesis that a significant portion of spread in climate model projections of sea ice is due to poorly-constrained model parameters. New automated methods for optimization are applied to historical sea ice in a global coupled climate model (HadCM3) in order to calculate the combination of parameters required to reduce the difference between simulation and observations to within the range of model noise. The optimized parameters result in a simulated sea-ice time series which is more consistent with Arctic observations throughout the satellite record (1980-present), particularly in the September minimum, than the standard configuration of HadCM3. Divergence from observed Antarctic trends and mean regional sea ice distribution reflects broader structural uncertainty in the climate model. We also find that the optimized parameters do not cause adverse effects on the model climatology. This simple approach provides evidence for the contribution of parameter uncertainty to spread in sea ice extent trends and could be customized to investigate uncertainties in other climate variables.

  14. IODP Expedition 310 Reconstructs Sea Level, Climatic, and Environmental Changes in the South Pacific during the Last Deglaciation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasufumi Iryu

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The timing and course of the last deglaciation (19,000–6,000 years BP are essential components for understanding the dynamics of large ice sheets (Lindstrom and MacAyeal, 1993 and their effects on Earth’s isostasy (Nakada and Lambeck, 1989; Lambeck, 1993; Peltier, 1994, as well as the complex relationship between freshwater fluxes to the ocean, thermohaline circulation, and, hence, global climate during the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene. Moreover, the lastdeglaciation is generally seen as a possible analogue for the environmental changes and increased sea level that Earth may experience because of the greenhouse effect, related thermal expansion of oceans, and the melting of polar ice sheets.

  15. Statistical Modeling of Sea Ice Concentration Using Satellite Imagery and Climate Reanalysis Data in the Barents and Kara Seas, 1979–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jihye Ahn

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Extensive sea ice over Arctic regions is largely involved in heat, moisture, and momentum exchanges between the atmosphere and ocean. Some previous studies have been conducted to develop statistical models for the status of Arctic sea ice and showed considerable possibilities to explain the impacts of climate changes on the sea ice extent. However, the statistical models require improvements to achieve better predictions by incorporating techniques that can deal with temporal variation of the relationships between sea ice concentration and climate factors. In this paper, we describe the statistical approaches by ordinary least squares (OLS regression and a time-series method for modeling sea ice concentration using satellite imagery and climate reanalysis data for the Barents and Kara Seas during 1979–2012. The OLS regression model could summarize the overall climatological characteristics in the relationships between sea ice concentration and climate variables. We also introduced autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models because the sea ice concentration is such a long-range dataset that the relationships may not be explained by a single equation of the OLS regression. Temporally varying relationships between sea ice concentration and the climate factors such as skin temperature, sea surface temperature, total column liquid water, total column water vapor, instantaneous moisture flux, and low cloud cover were modeled by the ARIMA method, which considerably improved the prediction accuracies. Our method may also be worth consideration when forecasting future sea ice concentration by using the climate data provided by general circulation models (GCM.

  16. Evaluation of Limiting Climatic Factors and Simulation of a Climatically Suitable Habitat for Chinese Sea Buckthorn.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoqing Li

    Full Text Available Chinese sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. sinensis has considerable economic potential and plays an important role in reclamation and soil and water conservation. For scientific cultivation of this species across China, we identified the key climatic factors and explored climatically suitable habitat in order to maximize survival of Chinese sea buckthorn using MaxEnt and GIS tools, based on 98 occurrence records from herbarium and publications and 13 climatic factors from Bioclim, Holdridge life zone and Kria' index variables. Our simulation showed that the MaxEnt model performance was significantly better than random, with an average test AUC value of 0.93 with 10-fold cross validation. A jackknife test and the regularized gain change, which were applied to the training algorithm, showed that precipitation of the driest month (PDM, annual precipitation (AP, coldness index (CI and annual range of temperature (ART were the most influential climatic factors in limiting the distribution of Chinese sea buckthorn, which explained 70.1% of the variation. The predicted map showed that the core of climatically suitable habitat was distributed from the southwest to northwest of Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces, where the most influential climate variables were PDM of 1.0-7.0 mm, AP of 344.0-1089.0 mm, CI of -47.7-0.0°C, and ART of 26.1-45.0°C. We conclude that the distribution patterns of Chinese sea buckthorn are related to the northwest winter monsoon, the southwest summer monsoon and the southeast summer monsoon systems in China.

  17. Caspian Sea level changes during the last millennium: historical and geological evidences from the south Caspian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naderi Beni, A.; Lahijani, H.; Mousavi Harami, R.; Arpe, K.; Leroy, S. A. G.; Marriner, N.; Berberian, M.; Andrieu-Ponel, V.; Djamali, M.; Mahboubi, A.

    2013-03-01

    Historical literature may constitute a valuable source of information to reconstruct sea level changes. Here, historical documents and geological records have been combined to reconstruct Caspian sea-level (CSL) changes during the last millennium. In addition to a literature survey, new data from two short sediment cores were obtained from the south-eastern Caspian coast to identify coastal change driven by water-level changes. Two articulated bivalve shells from the marine facies were radiocarbon dated and calibrated to establish a chronology and to compare them with historical findings. The overall results indicate a high-stand during the Little Ice Age, up to -19 m, with a -28 m low-stand during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, while presently the CSL stands at -26.5 m. A comparison of the CSL curve with other lake systems and proxy records suggests that the main sea-level oscillations are essentially paced by solar irradiance. Although the major controller of the long-term CSL changes is driven by climatological factors, the seismicity of the basin could create locally changes in base level. These local base-level changes should be considered in any CSL reconstruction.

  18. Caspian sea-level changes during the last millennium: historical and geological evidence from the south Caspian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naderi Beni, A.; Lahijani, H.; Mousavi Harami, R.; Arpe, K.; Leroy, S. A. G.; Marriner, N.; Berberian, M.; Andrieu-Ponel, V.; Djamali, M.; Mahboubi, A.; Reimer, P. J.

    2013-07-01

    Historical literature may constitute a valuable source of information to reconstruct sea-level changes. Here, historical documents and geological records have been combined to reconstruct Caspian sea-level (CSL) changes during the last millennium. In addition to a comprehensive literature review, new data from two short sediment cores were obtained from the south-eastern Caspian coast to identify coastal change driven by water-level changes and to compare the results with other geological and historical findings. The overall results indicate a high-stand during the Little Ice Age, up to -21 m (and extra rises due to manmade river avulsion), with a -28 m low-stand during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, while presently the CSL stands at -26.5 m. A comparison of the CSL curve with other lake systems and proxy records suggests that the main sea-level oscillations are essentially paced by solar irradiance. Although the major controller of the long-term CSL changes is driven by climatological factors, the seismicity of the basin creates local changes in base level. These local base-level changes should be considered in any CSL reconstruction.

  19. Estimating Areas of Vulnerability: Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Hazards in the National Parks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caffrey, M.; Beavers, R. L.; Slayton, I. A.

    2013-12-01

    The University of Colorado Boulder in collaboration with the National Park Service has undertaken the task of compiling sea level change and storm surge data for 105 coastal parks. The aim of our research is to highlight areas of the park system that are at increased risk of rapid inundation as well as periodic flooding due to sea level rise and storms. This research will assist park managers and planners in adapting to climate change. The National Park Service incorporates climate change data into many of their planning documents and is willing to implement innovative coastal adaptation strategies. Events such as Hurricane Sandy highlight how impacts of coastal hazards will continue to challenge management of natural and cultural resources and infrastructure along our coastlines. This poster will discuss the current status of this project. We discuss the impacts of Hurricane Sandy as well as the latest sea level rise and storm surge modeling being employed in this project. In addition to evaluating various drivers of relative sea-level change, we discuss how park planners and managers also need to consider projected storm surge values added to sea-level rise magnitudes, which could further complicate the management of coastal lands. Storm surges occurring at coastal parks will continue to change the land and seascapes of these areas, with the potential to completely submerge them. The likelihood of increased storm intensity added to increasing rates of sea-level rise make predicting the reach of future storm surges essential for planning and adaptation purposes. The National Park Service plays a leading role in developing innovative strategies for coastal parks to adapt to sea-level rise and storm surge, whilst coastal storms are opportunities to apply highly focused responses.

  20. How mangrove forests adjust to rising sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krauss, Ken W.; McKee, Karen L.; Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Saintilan, Neil; Reef, Ruth; Chen, Luzhen

    2014-01-01

    Mangroves are among the most well described and widely studied wetland communities in the world. The greatest threats to mangrove persistence are deforestation and other anthropogenic disturbances that can compromise habitat stability and resilience to sea-level rise. To persist, mangrove ecosystems must adjust to rising sea level by building vertically or become submerged. Mangroves may directly or indirectly influence soil accretion processes through the production and accumulation of organic matter, as well as the trapping and retention of mineral sediment. In this review, we provide a general overview of research on mangrove elevation dynamics, emphasizing the role of the vegetation in maintaining soil surface elevations (i.e. position of the soil surface in the vertical plane). We summarize the primary ways in which mangroves may influence sediment accretion and vertical land development, for example, through root contributions to soil volume and upward expansion of the soil surface. We also examine how hydrological, geomorphological and climatic processes may interact with plant processes to influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with rising sea level. We draw on a variety of studies to describe the important, and often under-appreciated, role that plants play in shaping the trajectory of an ecosystem undergoing change.

  1. Potential vulnerability implications of sea level rise for the coastal zones of Cochin, southwest coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DineshKumar, P.K.

    scenarios with particular emphasis to the coastal environment, a detailed investigation was carried out in the study region (Dinesh Kumar, 2000). Beach transect data generated in the region were analysed to determine the effects of projected sea level rise... considered valid (Are Kont et al., 2003) as the general projections on average global sea level rise, which is used in the present investigation as the projected sea level rise scenarios. According to the climate change scenario results, the projected values...

  2. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dasgupta, S. [World Bank, Washington, DC (United States)

    2008-07-01

    Sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat: The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. In this paper, Geographic Information System software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially-disaggregated global data on land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP, to assess the consequences of continued SLR for 84 coastal developing countries. Estimates suggest that even a one-meter rise in sea level in coastal countries of the developing world would submerge 194,000 square kilometers of land area, and turn at least 56 million people into environmental refugees. At the country level results are extremely skewed.

  3. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dasgupta, Susmita (World Bank, Washington, DC (United States))

    2008-07-01

    Sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat: The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. In this paper, Geographic Information System software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially-disaggregated global data on land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP, to assess the consequences of continued SLR for 84 coastal developing countries. Estimates suggest that even a one-meter rise in sea level in coastal countries of the developing world would submerge 194,000 square kilometers of land area, and turn at least 56 million people into environmental refugees. At the country level results are extremely skewed

  4. Sea level driven marsh expansion in a coupled model of marsh erosion and migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirwan, Matthew L.; Walters, David C.; Reay, William G.; Carr, Joel

    2016-01-01

    Coastal wetlands are among the most valuable ecosystems on Earth, where ecosystem services such as flood protection depend nonlinearly on wetland size and are threatened by sea level rise and coastal development. Here we propose a simple model of marsh migration into adjacent uplands and couple it with existing models of seaward edge erosion and vertical soil accretion to explore how ecosystem connectivity influences marsh size and response to sea level rise. We find that marsh loss is nearly inevitable where topographic and anthropogenic barriers limit migration. Where unconstrained by barriers, however, rates of marsh migration are much more sensitive to accelerated sea level rise than rates of edge erosion. This behavior suggests a counterintuitive, natural tendency for marsh expansion with sea level rise and emphasizes the disparity between coastal response to climate change with and without human intervention.

  5. Monitoring the variability of sea level and surface circulation with satellite altimetry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Volkov, Denis L. "Jr"

    2004-01-01

    Variability in the ocean plays an important role in determining global weather and climate conditions. The advent of satellite altimetry has significantly facilitated the study of the variability of sea level and surface circulation. Satellites provide high-quality regular and nearly global

  6. Improved Upper Ocean/Sea Ice Modeling in the GISS GCM for Investigating Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-01-01

    This project built on our previous results in which we highlighted the importance of sea ice in overall climate sensitivity by determining that for both warming and cooling climates, when sea ice was not allowed to change, climate sensitivity was reduced by 35-40%. We also modified the GISS 8 deg x lO deg atmospheric GCM to include an upper-ocean/sea-ice model involving the Semtner three-layer ice/snow thermodynamic model, the Price et al. (1986) ocean mixed layer model and a general upper ocean vertical advection/diffusion scheme for maintaining and fluxing properties across the pycnocline. This effort, in addition to improving the sea ice representation in the AGCM, revealed a number of sensitive components of the sea ice/ocean system. For example, the ability to flux heat through the ice/snow properly is critical in order to resolve the surface temperature properly, since small errors in this lead to unrestrained climate drift. The present project, summarized in this report, had as its objectives: (1) introducing a series of sea ice and ocean improvements aimed at overcoming remaining weaknesses in the GCM sea ice/ocean representation, and (2) performing a series of sensitivity experiments designed to evaluate the climate sensitivity of the revised model to both Antarctic and Arctic sea ice, determine the sensitivity of the climate response to initial ice distribution, and investigate the transient response to doubling CO2.

  7. Improved Upper Ocean/Sea Ice Modeling in the GISS GCM for Investigating Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    This project built on our previous results in which we highlighted the importance of sea ice in overall climate sensitivity by determining that for both warming and cooling climates, when sea ice was not allowed to change, climate sensitivity was reduced by 35-40%. We also modified the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) 8 deg x lO deg atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) to include an upper-ocean/sea-ice model involving the Semtner three-layer ice/snow thermodynamic model, the Price et al. (1986) ocean mixed layer model and a general upper ocean vertical advection/diffusion scheme for maintaining and fluxing properties across the pycnocline. This effort, in addition to improving the sea ice representation in the AGCM, revealed a number of sensitive components of the sea ice/ocean system. For example, the ability to flux heat through the ice/snow properly is critical in order to resolve the surface temperature properly, since small errors in this lead to unrestrained climate drift. The present project, summarized in this report, had as its objectives: (1) introducing a series of sea ice and ocean improvements aimed at overcoming remaining weaknesses in the GCM sea ice/ocean representation, and (2) performing a series of sensitivity experiments designed to evaluate the climate sensitivity of the revised model to both Antarctic and Arctic sea ice, determine the sensitivity of the climate response to initial ice distribution, and investigate the transient response to doubling CO2.

  8. Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Screen, James A.; Deser, Clara; Smith, Doug M.; Zhang, Xiangdong; Blackport, Russell; Kushner, Paul J.; Oudar, Thomas; McCusker, Kelly E.; Sun, Lantao

    2018-03-01

    The decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.

  9. Rapid sea level rise in the aftermath of a Neoproterozoic snowball Earth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myrow, P M; Lamb, M P; Ewing, R C

    2018-04-19

    Earth's most severe climate changes occurred during global-scale snowball-Earth glaciations, which profoundly altered Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and biosphere. Extreme rates of glacio-eustatic sea-level rise are a fundamental prediction of the snowball Earth hypothesis, but supporting geologic evidence is lacking. We use paleohydraulic analysis of wave ripples and tidal laminae of the Elatina Formation, Australia - deposited following the Marinoan glaciation ca. 635Ma - to show that water depths of 9-16m remained nearly constant for ~100yrs throughout 27m of sediment accumulation. This accumulation rate was too great to have been accommodated by subsidence, and instead indicates an extraordinarily rapid rate of sea-level rise (0.2-0.27m/yr). Our results substantiate a fundamental prediction of snowball Earth models of rapid deglaciation during the early transition to a super-greenhouse climate. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  10. An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

    2018-04-01

    Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

  11. The Barbados Sea Level Record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairbanks, R. G.; Mortlock, R. A.; Abdul, N. A.; Wright, J. D.; Cao, L.; Mey, J. L.

    2013-12-01

    Additional offshore drill cores, nearly 100 new radiometric dates, and more than 1000 kilometers of Multibeam mapping greatly enhance the Barbados Sea Level record. Extensive Multibeam mapping around the entire island covers approximately 2650 km2 of the sea bottom and now integrates the offshore reef topography and Barbados Sea Level Record with the unparalleled onshore core collection, digital elevation maps, and Pleistocene sea level record spanning the past one million years. The reef crest coral, Acropora palmata, remains the stalwart indicator of sea level for many reasons that are validated by our redundant sea level records and redundant dating via Th/U and Pa/U analyses. Microanalysis and densitometry studies better explain why Acropora palmata is so well preserved in the Pleistocene reef records and therefore why it is the species of choice for sea level reconstructions and radiometric dating. New drill cores into reefs that formed during Marine Isotope Stage 3 lead us to a model of diagenesis that allows us to better prospect for unaltered coral samples in older reefs that may be suitable for Th/U dating. Equally important, our diagenesis model reinforces our rigorous sample quality criteria in a more quantitative manner. The Barbados Sea Level record has a sampling resolution of better than 100 years throughout much of the last deglaciation showing unprecedented detail in redundant drill cores. The Melt Water Pulses (MWP1A and MWP1B) are well resolved and the intervening interval that includes the Younger Dryas reveals sea level changes in new detail that are consistent with the terrestrial records of ice margins (see Abdul et al., this section). More than 100 paired Th/U and radiocarbon ages place the Barbados Sea Level Record unambiguously on the radiocarbon time scale for direct comparisons with the terrestrial records of ice margin changes.

  12. Collective behaviour of climate indices in the North Pacific air—sea system and its potential relationships with decadal climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xiao-Juan; Zhi Rong; He Wen-Ping; Gong Zhi-Qiang

    2012-01-01

    A climate network of six climate indices of the North Pacific air—sea system is constructed during the period of 1948–2009. In order to find out the inherent relationship between the intrinsic mechanism of climate index network and the important climate shift, the synchronization behaviour and the coupling behaviour of these indices are investigated. Results indicate that climate network synchronization happened around the beginning of the 1960s, in the middle of the 1970s and at the beginnings of the 1990s and the 2000s separately. These synchronization states were always followed by the decrease of the coupling coefficient. Each synchronization of the network was well associated with the abrupt phase or trend changes of annually accumulated abnormal values of North Pacific sea-surface temperature and 500-hPa height, among which the one that happened in the middle of the 1970s is the most noticeable climate shift. We can also obtain this mysterious shift from the first mode of the empirical orthogonal function of six indices. That is to say, abrupt climate shift in North Pacific air—sea system is not only shown by the phase or trend changes of climate indices, but also might be indicated by the synchronizing and the coupling of climate indices. Furthermore, at the turning point of 1975, there are also abrupt correlation changes in the yearly mode of spatial degree distribution of the sea surface temperature and 500-hPa height in the region of the North Pacific, which further proves the probability of climate index synchronization and coupling shift in air—sea systems. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

  13. Collective behaviour of climate indices in the North Pacific air-sea system and its potential relationships with decadal climate changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Xiao-Juan; Zhi Rong; He Wen-Ping; Gong Zhi-Qiang

    2012-01-01

    A climate network of six climate indices of the North Pacific air-sea system is constructed during the period of 1948-2009.In order to find out the inherent relationship between the intrinsic mechanism of climate index network and the important climate shift,the synchronization behaviour and the coupling behaviour of these indices are investigated.Results indicate that climate network synchronization happened around the beginning of the 1960s,in the middle of the 1970s and at the beginnings of the 1990s and the 2000s separately.These synchronization states were always followed by the decrease of the coupling coefficient.Each synchronization of the network was well associated with the abrupt phase or trend changes of annually accumulated abnormal vaiues of North Pacific sea-surface temperature and 500-hPa height,among which the one that happened in the middle of the 1970s is the most noticeable climate shift.We can also obtain this mysterious shift from the first mode of the empirical orthogonal function of six indices.That is to say,abrupt climate shift in North Pacific air-sea system is not only shown by the phase or trend changes of climate indices,but also night be indicated by the synchronizing and the coupling of climate indices.Furthermore,at the turning point of 1975,there are also abrupt correlation changes in the yearly mode of spatial degree distribution of the sea surface temperature and 500-hPa height in the region of the North Pacific,which further proves the probability of climate index synchronization and coupling shift in air-sea systems.

  14. Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent; Bauer, Denise H.

    2010-01-01

    Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.

  15. Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; Strauss, Benjamin H; Zervas, Chris E

    2012-01-01

    Sound policies for protecting coastal communities and assets require good information about vulnerability to flooding. Here, we investigate the influence of sea level rise on expected storm surge-driven water levels and their frequencies along the contiguous United States. We use model output for global temperature changes, a semi-empirical model of global sea level rise, and long-term records from 55 nationally distributed tidal gauges to develop sea level rise projections at each gauge location. We employ more detailed records over the period 1979–2008 from the same gauges to elicit historic patterns of extreme high water events, and combine these statistics with anticipated relative sea level rise to project changing local extremes through 2050. We find that substantial changes in the frequency of what are now considered extreme water levels may occur even at locations with relatively slow local sea level rise, when the difference in height between presently common and rare water levels is small. We estimate that, by mid-century, some locations may experience high water levels annually that would qualify today as ‘century’ (i.e., having a chance of occurrence of 1% annually) extremes. Today’s century levels become ‘decade’ (having a chance of 10% annually) or more frequent events at about a third of the study gauges, and the majority of locations see substantially higher frequency of previously rare storm-driven water heights in the future. These results add support to the need for policy approaches that consider the non-stationarity of extreme events when evaluating risks of adverse climate impacts. (letter)

  16. Evidence of exceptional oyster-reef resilience to fluctuations in sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridge, Justin T; Rodriguez, Antonio B; Fodrie, F Joel

    2017-12-01

    Ecosystems at the land-sea interface are vulnerable to rising sea level. Intertidal habitats must maintain their surface elevations with respect to sea level to persist via vertical growth or landward retreat, but projected rates of sea-level rise may exceed the accretion rates of many biogenic habitats. While considerable attention is focused on climate change over centennial timescales, relative sea level also fluctuates dramatically (10-30 cm) over month-to-year timescales due to interacting oceanic and atmospheric processes. To assess the response of oyster-reef ( Crassostrea virginica ) growth to interannual variations in mean sea level (MSL) and improve long-term forecasts of reef response to rising seas, we monitored the morphology of constructed and natural intertidal reefs over 5 years using terrestrial lidar. Timing of reef scans created distinct periods of high and low relative water level for decade-old reefs ( n  = 3) constructed in 1997 and 2000, young reefs ( n  = 11) constructed in 2011 and one natural reef (approximately 100 years old). Changes in surface elevation were related to MSL trends. Decade-old reefs achieved 2 cm/year growth, which occurred along higher elevations when MSL increased. Young reefs experienced peak growth (6.7 cm/year) at a lower elevation that coincided with a drop in MSL. The natural reef exhibited considerable loss during the low MSL of the first time step but grew substantially during higher MSL through the second time step, with growth peaking (4.3 cm/year) at MSL, reoccupying the elevations previously lost. Oyster reefs appear to be in dynamic equilibrium with short-term (month-to-year) fluctuations in sea level, evidencing notable resilience to future changes to sea level that surpasses other coastal biogenic habitat types. These growth patterns support the presence of a previously defined optimal growth zone that shifts correspondingly with changes in MSL, which can help guide oyster-reef conservation and

  17. Rapid Ice-Sheet Changes and Mechanical Coupling to Solid-Earth/Sea-Level and Space Geodetic Observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Perturbations in gravitational and rotational potentials caused by climate driven mass redistribution on the earth's surface, such as ice sheet melting and terrestrial water storage, affect the spatiotemporal variability in global and regional sea level. Here we present a numerically accurate, computationally efficient, high-resolution model for sea level. Unlike contemporary models that are based on spherical-harmonic formulation, the model can operate efficiently in a flexible embedded finite-element mesh system, thus capturing the physics operating at km-scale yet capable of simulating geophysical quantities that are inherently of global scale with minimal computational cost. One obvious application is to compute evolution of sea level fingerprints and associated geodetic and astronomical observables (e.g., geoid height, gravity anomaly, solid-earth deformation, polar motion, and geocentric motion) as a companion to a numerical 3-D thermo-mechanical ice sheet simulation, thus capturing global signatures of climate driven mass redistribution. We evaluate some important time-varying signatures of GRACE inferred ice sheet mass balance and continental hydrological budget; for example, we identify dominant sources of ongoing sea-level change at the selected tide gauge stations, and explain the relative contribution of different sources to the observed polar drift. We also report our progress on ice-sheet/solid-earth/sea-level model coupling efforts toward realistic simulation of Pine Island Glacier over the past several hundred years.

  18. Sea level reconstruction from satellite altimetry and tide gauge data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    2012-01-01

    Ocean satellite altimetry has provided global sets of sea level data for the last two decades, allowing determination of spatial patterns in global sea level. For reconstructions going back further than this period, tide gauge data can be used as a proxy. We examine different methods of combining...... for better sensitivity analysis with respect to spatial distribution, and tide gauge data are available around the Arctic Ocean, which may be important for a later high-latitude reconstruction....... satellite altimetry and tide gauge data using optimal weighting of tide gauge data, linear regression and EOFs, including automatic quality checks of the tide gauge time series. We attempt to augment the model using various proxies such as climate indices like the NAO and PDO, and investigate alternative...

  19. Impact of climate warming on upper layer of the Bering Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyun-Chul; Delworth, Thomas L.; Rosati, Anthony; Zhang, Rong; Anderson, Whit G.; Zeng, Fanrong; Stock, Charles A.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Dixon, Keith W.; Griffies, Stephen M.

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate warming on the upper layer of the Bering Sea is investigated by using a high-resolution coupled global climate model. The model is forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 at a rate of 1% per year until CO2 reaches double its initial value (after 70 years), after which it is held constant. In response to this forcing, the upper layer of the Bering Sea warms by about 2°C in the southeastern shelf and by a little more than 1°C in the western basin. The wintertime ventilation to the permanent thermocline weakens in the western Bering Sea. After CO2 doubling, the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea becomes almost ice-free in March, and the stratification of the upper layer strengthens in May and June. Changes of physical condition due to the climate warming would impact the pre-condition of spring bio-productivity in the southeastern shelf.

  20. Observed Sea-Level Changes along the Norwegian Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristian Breili

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Norway’s national sea level observing system consists of an extensive array of tide gauges, permanent GNSS stations, and lines of repeated levelling. Here, we make use of this observation system to calculate relative sea-level rates and rates corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA along the Norwegian coast for three different periods, i.e., 1960 to 2010, 1984 to 2014, and 1993 to 2016. For all periods, the relative sea-level rates show considerable spatial variations that are largely due to differences in vertical land motion due to GIA. The variation is reduced by applying corrections for vertical land motion and associated gravitational effects on sea level. For 1960 to 2010 and 1984 to 2014, the coastal average GIA-corrected rates for Norway are 2.0 ± 0.6 mm/year and 2.2 ± 0.6 mm/year, respectively. This is close to the rate of global sea-level rise for the same periods. For the most recent period, 1993 to 2016, the GIA-corrected coastal average is 3.5 ± 0.6 mm/year and 3.2 ± 0.6 mm/year with and without inverse barometer (IB corrections, respectively, which is significantly higher than for the two earlier periods. For 1993 to 2016, the coastal average IB-corrected rates show broad agreement with two independent sets of altimetry. This suggests that there is no systematic error in the vertical land motion corrections applied to the tide-gauge data. At the same time, altimetry does not capture the spatial variation identified in the tide-gauge records. This could be an effect of using altimetry observations off the coast instead of directly at each tide gauge. Finally, we note that, owing to natural variability in the climate system, our estimates are highly sensitive to the selected study period. For example, using a 30-year moving window, we find that the estimated rates may change by up to 1 mm/year when shifting the start epoch by only one year.

  1. Can regional climate engineering save the summer Arctic sea ice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, S.; Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Holland, Marika; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

    2014-02-01

    Rapid declines in summer Arctic sea ice extent are projected under high-forcing future climate scenarios. Regional Arctic climate engineering has been suggested as an emergency strategy to save the sea ice. Model simulations of idealized regional dimming experiments compared to a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission simulation demonstrate the importance of both local and remote feedback mechanisms to the surface energy budget in high latitudes. With increasing artificial reduction in incoming shortwave radiation, the positive surface albedo feedback from Arctic sea ice loss is reduced. However, changes in Arctic clouds and the strongly increasing northward heat transport both counteract the direct dimming effects. A 4 times stronger local reduction in solar radiation compared to a global experiment is required to preserve summer Arctic sea ice area. Even with regional Arctic dimming, a reduction in the strength of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and a shut down of Labrador Sea deep convection are possible.

  2. Sea Level Rise Data Discovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quach, N.; Huang, T.; Boening, C.; Gill, K. M.

    2016-12-01

    Research related to sea level rise crosses multiple disciplines from sea ice to land hydrology. The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (SLCP) is a one-stop source for current sea level change information and data, including interactive tools for accessing and viewing regional data, a virtual dashboard of sea level indicators, and ongoing updates through a suite of editorial products that include content articles, graphics, videos, and animations. The architecture behind the SLCP makes it possible to integrate web content and data relevant to sea level change that are archived across various data centers as well as new data generated by sea level change principal investigators. The Extensible Data Gateway Environment (EDGE) is incorporated into the SLCP architecture to provide a unified platform for web content and science data discovery. EDGE is a data integration platform designed to facilitate high-performance geospatial data discovery and access with the ability to support multi-metadata standard specifications. EDGE has the capability to retrieve data from one or more sources and package the resulting sets into a single response to the requestor. With this unified endpoint, the Data Analysis Tool that is available on the SLCP can retrieve dataset and granule level metadata as well as perform geospatial search on the data. This talk focuses on the architecture that makes it possible to seamlessly integrate and enable discovery of disparate data relevant to sea level rise.

  3. Internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G - I. Near-surface temperature, precipitation and mean sea level pressure.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Min, Seung-Ki; Hense, Andreas [Univ. of Bonn (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Legutke, Stephanie [Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Kwon, Won-Tae [Meteorological Research Inst., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-08-01

    The internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled atmosphere/ocean global climate model ECHO-G is analysed using near-surface temperature, precipitation and mean sea level pressure variables, and is compared with observations and other coupled climate model simulations. ECHO-G requires annual mean flux adjustments for heat and freshwater in order to simulate no significant climate drift for 1000 yr, but no flux adjustments for momentum. The ECHO-G control run captures well most aspects of the observed seasonal and annual climatology and of the interannual to decadal variability of the three variables. Model biases are very close to those in ECHAM4 (atmospheric component of ECHO-G) stand-alone integrations with prescribed observed sea surface temperature. A trend comparison between observed and modelled near-surface temperatures shows that the observed near-surface global warming is larger than internal variability produced by ECHO-G, supporting previous studies. The simulated global mean near-surface temperatures, however, show a 2-yr spectral peak which is linked with a strong biennial bias of energy in the El Nino Southern Oscillation signal. Consequently, the interannual variability (39 yr) is underestimated.

  4. Assessing coastal flood risk and sea level rise impacts at New York City area airports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohman, K. A.; Kimball, N.; Osler, M.; Eberbach, S.

    2014-12-01

    Flood risk and sea level rise impacts were assessed for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) at four airports in the New York City area. These airports included John F. Kennedy International, LaGuardia, Newark International, and Teterboro Airports. Quantifying both present day and future flood risk due to climate change and developing flood mitigation alternatives is crucial for the continued operation of these airports. During Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 all four airports were forced to shut down, in part due to coastal flooding. Future climate change and sea level rise effects may result in more frequent shutdowns and disruptions in travel to and from these busy airports. The study examined the effects of the 1%-annual-chance coastal flooding event for present day existing conditions and six different sea level rise scenarios at each airport. Storm surge model outputs from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provided the present day storm surge conditions. 50th and 90thpercentile sea level rise projections from the New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) 2013 report were incorporated into storm surge results using linear superposition methods. These projections were evaluated for future years 2025, 2035, and 2055. In addition to the linear superposition approach for storm surge at airports where waves are a potential hazard, one dimensional wave modeling was performed to get the total water level results. Flood hazard and flood depth maps were created based on these results. In addition to assessing overall flooding at each airport, major at-risk infrastructure critical to the continued operation of the airport was identified and a detailed flood vulnerability assessment was performed. This assessment quantified flood impacts in terms of potential critical infrastructure inundation and developed mitigation alternatives to adapt to coastal flooding and future sea level changes. Results from this project are advancing the PANYNJ

  5. Mass-induced sea level variations in the Red Sea from steric-corrected altimetry, GRACE, in-situ bottom pressure records, and hydrographic observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Wei; Lemoine, Jean-Michel; Zhong, Min; Xu, Houze

    2014-05-01

    An annual amplitude of ~18 cm mass-induced sea level variations (SLV) in the Red Sea is detected from steric-corrected altimetry and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites from 2003 to 2011, which dominates the mean sea level in the region. Seawater mass variations here generally reach maximum in late January/early February. The steric component of SLV calculated from oceanographic temperature and salinity data is relatively small and peaks about seven months later than mass variations. The phase difference between the steric SLV and the mass-induced SLV indicates that when the Red Sea gains the mass from inflow water in winter, the steric SLV fall, and vice versa in summer. In-situ bottom pressure records in the eastern coast of the Red Sea validate the high mass variability observed by steric-corrected altimetry and GRACE. Furthermore, we compare the horizontal water mass flux in the Red Sea from steric-corrected altimetry and GRACE with that estimated from hydrographic observations.

  6. Arctic climate response to forcing from light-absorbing particles in snow and sea ice in CESM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Goldenson

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The presence of light-absorbing aerosol particles deposited on arctic snow and sea ice influences the surface albedo, causing greater shortwave absorption, warming, and loss of snow and sea ice, lowering the albedo further. The Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1 now includes the radiative effects of light-absorbing particles in snow on land and sea ice and in sea ice itself. We investigate the model response to the deposition of black carbon and dust to both snow and sea ice. For these purposes we employ a slab ocean version of CESM1, using the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4, run to equilibrium for year 2000 levels of CO2 and fixed aerosol deposition. We construct experiments with and without aerosol deposition, with dust or black carbon deposition alone, and with varying quantities of black carbon and dust to approximate year 1850 and 2000 deposition fluxes. The year 2000 deposition fluxes of both dust and black carbon cause 1–2 °C of surface warming over large areas of the Arctic Ocean and sub-Arctic seas in autumn and winter and in patches of Northern land in every season. Atmospheric circulation changes are a key component of the surface-warming pattern. Arctic sea ice thins by on average about 30 cm. Simulations with year 1850 aerosol deposition are not substantially different from those with year 2000 deposition, given constant levels of CO2. The climatic impact of particulate impurities deposited over land exceeds that of particles deposited over sea ice. Even the surface warming over the sea ice and sea ice thinning depends more upon light-absorbing particles deposited over land. For CO2 doubled relative to year 2000 levels, the climate impact of particulate impurities in snow and sea ice is substantially lower than for the year 2000 equilibrium simulation.

  7. Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene climate evolution controlled by sea-level change, Leeuwin Current, and Australian Monsoon in the Northwestern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishiwa, T.; Yokoyama, Y.; McHugh, C.; Reuning, L.; Gallagher, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    The transition from cold to warm conditions during the last deglaciation influenced climate variability in the Indian Ocean and Pacific as a result of submerge of continental shelf and variations in the Indonesian Throughflow and Australian Monsoon. The shallow continental shelf (Program Expedition 356 Indonesian Throughflow drilled in the northwestern Australian shallow continental shelf and recovered an interval from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene in Site U1461. Radiocarbon dating on macrofossils, foraminifera, and bulk organic matter provided a precise age-depth model, leading to high-resolved paleoclimate reconstruction. X-ray elemental analysis results are interpreted as an indicator of sedimentary environmental changes. The upper 20-m part of Site U1461 apparently records the climate transition from the LGM to Holocene in the northwestern Australia, which could be associated with sea-level change, Leeuwin Current activity, and the Australian Monsoon.

  8. A model study of the effect of climate and sea-level change on the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to 2100

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maris, M. N. A.; Van Wessem, J. M.; Van De Berg, W. J.; De Boer, B.; Oerlemans, J.

    2014-01-01

    Due to a scarcity of observations and its long memory of uncertain past climate, the Antarctic Ice Sheet remains a largely unknown factor in the prediction of global sea level change. As the history of the ice sheet plays a key role in its future evolution, in this study we model the Antarctic Ice

  9. Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Robert E.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Bittermann, Klaus; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Gehrels, W. Roland; Hay, Carling C.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Morrow, Eric D.; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. PMID:26903659

  10. Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schewe

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available We present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM using MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard scenarios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of future greenhouse gas (GHG concentrations pathways currently discussed. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIMBER-3α to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st century slightly above 1.5 °C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convection that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface cooling rate by almost 50%. Steric sea level rise under the RCP3-PD scenario continues for 200 years after the peak in surface air temperatures, stabilizing around 2250 at 30 cm. This contrasts with around 1.3 m of steric sea level rise by 2250, and 2 m by 2500, under the highest scenario, RCP8.5. Maximum oceanic warming at intermediate depth (300–800 m is found to exceed that of the sea surface by the second half of the 21st century under RCP3-PD. This intermediate-depth warming persists for centuries even after surface temperatures have returned to present-day values, with potential consequences for marine ecosystems, oceanic methane hydrates, and ice-shelf stability. Due to an enhanced land-ocean temperature contrast, all scenarios yield an intensification of monsoon rainfall under global warming.

  11. Improvement of Global and Regional Mean Sea Level Trends Derived from all Altimetry Missions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ablain, Michael; Benveniste, Jérôme; Faugere, Yannice; Larnicol, Gilles; Cazenave, Anny; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Stammer, Detlef; Timms, Gary

    2012-07-01

    The global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993 using data from satellite altimetry missions. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 is increasing with a global trend of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL Aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from +/- 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend uncertainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in Sea Level Essential Climate Variable Project in the frame of the Climate Change Initiative, an ESA Programme, in addition to activities performed within the SALP/CNES, strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections allowing us to link regional time series together better. These improvements are described at global and regional scale for all the altimetry missions.

  12. Analysis of sea level data sequences in Colombian pacific ands its relationship to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rangel, Ernesto Santiago; Montealegre; Jose Edgar

    2003-01-01

    By analyzing series of mean sea level (MSL), data for the towns of Tumaco (01 degrades N 78 degrades 44 minutes W, elevation: 0 meters) and Buenaventura (03 degrades 51 degrades N, 76 degrades 58 minutes W, elevation: 1 meter) the seasonal, intra-annual and inter-annual variability of the MSL are studied in the Colombian pacific, in connection with the el Nino-La Nina - southern oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The detection and the analysis of possible trends are examined in search of likely signal of global change in Colombia. This work concludes that the mean sea level (MSL) data for Tumaco and Buenaventura, are a good indicator, the first one, and a relatively acceptable indicator, the second, of the ENSO cycle, although of very low resolution during the La Nina episodes, in both cases. It was detected equally, a marked tendency for increasing of the mean sea level, approximately starting from the beginnings of the decade of the seventies, which could be related to the higher frequency of warm episodes. Although the longitude of the analyzed series doesn't allow arriving to conclusive results, the increasing tendency of the sea levels during the last twenty years could serve as an early warning in connection with possible manifestations of the global change in Colombia

  13. Present-day sea level rise: a synthesis; Hausse actuelle du niveau de la mer: synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cazenave, A.; Llovel, W. [Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales (LEGOS), Observatoire Midi-Pyrenees, 31 - Toulouse (France); Lombard, A. [CNES, 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2008-11-15

    Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes have improved considerably in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing data sets have become available. Here we report on the current knowledge of present-day sea level change. We briefly present observational results on sea level change from satellite altimetry since 1993 and tide gauges for the past century. We next discuss recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on time scales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion, land ice mass loss and land water storage change. For the 1993-2003 decade, the sum of climate-related contributions agree well (within the error bars) with the altimetry-based sea level, half of the observed rate of rise being due to ocean thermal expansion, land ice plus land waters explaining the other half. Since about 2003, thermal expansion increase has stopped, whereas the sea level continues to rise, although at a reduced rate compared to the previous decade (2.5 mm/yr versus 3.1 mm/yr). Recent increases in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets appear able to account alone for the rise in sea level reported over the last five years. (authors)

  14. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Geodetic Vertical Datum of Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Din, A. H. M.; Abazu, I. C.; Pa'suya, M. F.; Omar, K. M.; Hamid, A. I. A.

    2016-09-01

    Sea level rise is rapidly turning into major issues among our community and all levels of the government are working to develop responses to ensure these matters are given the uttermost attention in all facets of planning. It is more interesting to understand and investigate the present day sea level variation due its potential impact, particularly on our national geodetic vertical datum. To determine present day sea level variation, it is vital to consider both in-situ tide gauge and remote sensing measurements. This study presents an effort to quantify the sea level rise rate and magnitude over Peninsular Malaysia using tide gauge and multi-mission satellite altimeter. The time periods taken for both techniques are 32 years (from 1984 to 2015) for tidal data and 23 years (from 1993 to 2015) for altimetry data. Subsequently, the impact of sea level rise on Peninsular Malaysia Geodetic Vertical Datum (PMGVD) is evaluated in this study. the difference between MSL computed from 10 years (1984 - 1993) and 32 years (1984 - 2015) tidal data at Port Kelang showed that the increment of sea level is about 27mm. The computed magnitude showed an estimate of the long-term effect a change in MSL has on the geodetic vertical datum of Port Kelang tide gauge station. This will help give a new insight on the establishment of national geodetic vertical datum based on mean sea level data. Besides, this information can be used for a wide variety of climatic applications to study environmental issues related to flood and global warming in Malaysia.

  15. THE IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON GEODETIC VERTICAL DATUM OF PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. M. Din

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sea level rise is rapidly turning into major issues among our community and all levels of the government are working to develop responses to ensure these matters are given the uttermost attention in all facets of planning. It is more interesting to understand and investigate the present day sea level variation due its potential impact, particularly on our national geodetic vertical datum. To determine present day sea level variation, it is vital to consider both in-situ tide gauge and remote sensing measurements. This study presents an effort to quantify the sea level rise rate and magnitude over Peninsular Malaysia using tide gauge and multi-mission satellite altimeter. The time periods taken for both techniques are 32 years (from 1984 to 2015 for tidal data and 23 years (from 1993 to 2015 for altimetry data. Subsequently, the impact of sea level rise on Peninsular Malaysia Geodetic Vertical Datum (PMGVD is evaluated in this study. the difference between MSL computed from 10 years (1984 – 1993 and 32 years (1984 – 2015 tidal data at Port Kelang showed that the increment of sea level is about 27mm. The computed magnitude showed an estimate of the long-term effect a change in MSL has on the geodetic vertical datum of Port Kelang tide gauge station. This will help give a new insight on the establishment of national geodetic vertical datum based on mean sea level data. Besides, this information can be used for a wide variety of climatic applications to study environmental issues related to flood and global warming in Malaysia.

  16. Millennial changes of the Baltic Sea salinity. Studies of the sensitivity of the salinity to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustafsson, Bo G.

    2004-05-01

    An important question for safety assessments of nuclear waste repositories is the salinity of the Baltic Sea under different conditions. The salinity affects the potential recipient ecosystems, the water turnover along the coast and the hydrology as well as the groundwater chemistry. In this report a model that enables computation of the Baltic Sea salinity for different sea level positions and freshwater supplies is presented. The model is used to compute the salinities in Baltic proper, Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay for all combinations of global sea level changes from -10 m to 10 m and freshwater supplies from 0 to 60,000 m 3 /s. The results are presented in a series of graphs that enables the reader to make an assessment of the impact of a given climatic change. The model is also used to compute the decrease of the salinity in Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay during the next few millennia due to the postglacial uplift. The results show that modest changes in global sea level, say ±1 m, give a salinity change of the order of 1 psu in southern Baltic proper. Changing the freshwater supply with about 2,000 m 3 /s (approximately 10%) gives a similar salinity change. Further, a sea level drop of about 5 m or an increase of the freshwater supply by a factor of 3 is needed to reduce the salinity in southern Baltic proper below 1 psu. In this limit large parts of the Baltic would be limnic. A 50% decrease of the freshwater supply increase the salinity in the southern Baltic proper by a factor of 2 to some 15 psu, but the effect is even more drastic in Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay where the salinity increase to 13 and 10 psu, respectively. A less windy climate might have a significant effect in lowering the Baltic salinity due to a combined effect of lowered mixing in Kattegat and lowered exchange between Kattegat and the Baltic. A windier climate will not have such strong effect since increased mixing does not affect the Baltic as much. Most probably the shoreline

  17. Millennial changes of the Baltic Sea salinity. Studies of the sensitivity of the salinity to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gustafsson, Bo G. [Oceanus Havsundersoekningar, Goeteborg (Sweden)

    2004-05-01

    An important question for safety assessments of nuclear waste repositories is the salinity of the Baltic Sea under different conditions. The salinity affects the potential recipient ecosystems, the water turnover along the coast and the hydrology as well as the groundwater chemistry. In this report a model that enables computation of the Baltic Sea salinity for different sea level positions and freshwater supplies is presented. The model is used to compute the salinities in Baltic proper, Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay for all combinations of global sea level changes from -10 m to 10 m and freshwater supplies from 0 to 60,000 m{sup 3}/s. The results are presented in a series of graphs that enables the reader to make an assessment of the impact of a given climatic change. The model is also used to compute the decrease of the salinity in Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay during the next few millennia due to the postglacial uplift. The results show that modest changes in global sea level, say {+-}1 m, give a salinity change of the order of 1 psu in southern Baltic proper. Changing the freshwater supply with about 2,000 m{sup 3}/s (approximately 10%) gives a similar salinity change. Further, a sea level drop of about 5 m or an increase of the freshwater supply by a factor of 3 is needed to reduce the salinity in southern Baltic proper below 1 psu. In this limit large parts of the Baltic would be limnic. A 50% decrease of the freshwater supply increase the salinity in the southern Baltic proper by a factor of 2 to some 15 psu, but the effect is even more drastic in Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay where the salinity increase to 13 and 10 psu, respectively. A less windy climate might have a significant effect in lowering the Baltic salinity due to a combined effect of lowered mixing in Kattegat and lowered exchange between Kattegat and the Baltic. A windier climate will not have such strong effect since increased mixing does not affect the Baltic as much. Most probably the

  18. Assessing water quality of the Chesapeake Bay by the impact of sea level rise and warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, P.; Linker, L.; Wang, H.; Bhatt, G.; Yactayo, G.; Hinson, K.; Tian, R.

    2017-08-01

    The influence of sea level rise and warming on circulation and water quality of the Chesapeake Bay under projected climate conditions in 2050 were estimated by computer simulation. Four estuarine circulation scenarios in the estuary were run using the same watershed load in 1991-2000 period. They are, 1) the Base Scenario, which represents the current climate condition, 2) a Sea Level Rise Scenario, 3) a Warming Scenario, and 4) a combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario. With a 1.6-1.9°C increase in monthly air temperatures in the Warming Scenario, water temperature in the Bay is estimated to increase by 0.8-1°C. Summer average anoxic volume is estimated to increase 1.4 percent compared to the Base Scenario, because of an increase in algal blooms in the spring and summer, promotion of oxygen consumptive processes, and an increase of stratification. However, a 0.5-meter Sea Level Rise Scenario results in a 12 percent reduction of anoxic volume. This is mainly due to increased estuarine circulation that promotes oxygen-rich sea water intrusion in lower layers. The combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario results in a 10.8 percent reduction of anoxic volume. Global warming increases precipitation and consequently increases nutrient loads from the watershed by approximately 5-7 percent. A scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and current estuarine circulation patterns yielded a 19 percent increase in summer anoxic volume, while a scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and modified estuarine circulation patterns by the aforementioned sea level rise and warming yielded a 6 percent increase in summer anoxic volume. Impacts on phytoplankton, sediments, and water clarity were also analysed.

  19. High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Christopher R; Bayard, Trina S; Gjerdrum, Carina; Hill, Jason M; Meiman, Susan; Elphick, Chris S

    2017-05-01

    Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Tropical vegetation evidence for rapid sea level changes associated with Heinrich Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez, Catalina; Dupont, Lydie M, E-mail: catalina@uni-bremen.d, E-mail: dupont@uni-bremen.d [MARUM - Centre for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Leobener Strasse, D-28359 Germany (Germany)

    2010-03-15

    A Cariaco Basin pollen record shows the development of tropical salt marshes during marine isotope stage 3. Rapid and abrupt expansions of salt marsh vegetation in tropical South America are associated with north Atlantic Heinrich Events stadials (HE-stadials). Intervals of salt marsh expansion have an internal structure, which consists of a recurrent alternation of species that starts with pollen increments of Chenopodiaceae, that are followed by increments of grasses, and subsequently by increments of Cyperaceae. This pattern suggests a successional process that is determined by the close relationship between sea-level and plant community dynamics. The salt tolerant Chenopodiaceae, indicate hypersaline intertidal environments, which were most likely promoted by extremely dry atmospheric conditions. Rapid sea-level rise characterizes the onset of HE-stadials, causing the continued recruitment of pioneer species, which are the only ones tolerating rapid rates of disturbance. Once sea-level rise decelerates, marsh plants are able to trap and stabilize sediments, favouring the establishment of more competitive species. These results add to the scarce knowledge on the dynamics of tropical salt marsh ecosystems, and provide independent paleoclimatic evidence on sea-level changes following Antarctic climate variability.

  1. Relationship between Eurasian large-scale patterns and regional climate variability over the Black and Baltic Seas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stankunavicius, G.; Pupienis, D. [Vilnius Univ. (Lithuania). Dept. of Hydrology and Climatology; Basharin, D. [National Academy of Science of Ukraine, Sevastopol (Ukraine). Sevastopol Marine Hydrophysical Inst.

    2012-11-01

    Using a NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset and the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis approach we studied interannual to decadal variabilities of the sea-level air pressure (SLP) and the surface air temperature (SAT) fields over Eurasia during the 2nd part of the 20th century. Our results agree with those of the previous studies, which conclude that Eurasian trends are the result of storm-path changes driven by the interdecadal behaviour of the NAO-like meridional dipole pattern in the Atlantic. On interannual and decadal time scales, significant synchronous correlations between correspondent modes of SAT and SLP EOF patterns were found. This fact suggests that there is a strong and stable Eurasian interrelationship between SAT and SLP large-scale fields which affects the local climate of two sub-regions: the Black and Baltic Seas. The climate variability in these sub-regions was studied in terms of Eurasian large-scale surface-temperature and air-pressure patterns responses. We concluded that the sub-regional climate variability substantially differs over the Black and Baltic Seas, and depends on different Eurasian large-scale patterns. We showed that the Baltic Sea region is influenced by the patterns arising primary from NAO-like meridional dipole, as well as Scandinavian patterns, while the Black Sea's SAT/SLP variability is influenced mainly by the second mode EOF (eastern Atlantic) and large scale tropospheric wave structures. (orig.)

  2. Expanding research capabilities with sea ice climate records for analysis of long-term climate change and short-term variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, D. J.; Meier, W. N.

    2008-12-01

    Recent sea ice analysis is leading to predictions of a sea ice-free summertime in the Arctic within 20 years, or even sooner. Sea ice topics, such as concentration, extent, motion, and age, are predominately studied using satellite data. At the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), passive microwave sea ice data sets provide timely assessments of seasonal-scale variability as well as consistent long-term climate data records. Such data sets are crucial to understanding changes and assessing their impacts. Noticeable impacts of changing sea ice conditions on native cultures and wildlife in the Arctic region are now being documented. With continued deterioration in Arctic sea ice, global economic impacts will be seen as new shipping routes open. NSIDC is at the forefront of making climate data records available to address the changes in sea ice and its global impacts. By focusing on integrated data sets, NSIDC leads the way by broadening the studies of sea ice beyond the traditional cryospheric community.

  3. Identification of Transportation Infrastructure at Risk Due To Sea-Level Rise and Subsidence of Land In Coastal Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tewari, S.; Palmer, W.; Manning, F.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change can affect coastal areas in a variety of ways. Coasts are sensitive to sea level rise, changes in the frequency/intensity of storms, increase in precipitation and storm surges. The resilience of transportation infrastructure located in Louisiana's coastal zone, against storm surges and climatic sea-level rise is critical. The net change in sea-level is affected by the increase in global sea level as well as land movement up or down. There are many places in coastal Louisiana that have a high subsidence rate. The subsidence could be related to excess extraction activities of oil and water, natural and/or human induced compaction, and tectonic movement. Where the land is sinking, the rate of relative sea level rise is larger than the global rate. Some of the fastest rates of relative sea level rise in the United States are occurring in areas where the land is sinking, including parts of the Gulf Coast. For example, coastal Louisiana has seen its relative sea level rise by eight inches or more in the last 50 years, which is about twice the global rate. Subsiding land in the Gulf area worsens the effects of relative sea level rise, increasing the risk of flooding in cities, inhabited islands, and tidal wetlands. The research team is investigating the trends for sea-level rise and land subsidence in coastal region of Louisiana. The variability in storm surges and its potential implication on the transportation infrastructure in the region is the focus of the study. The spatial maps will be created for spatial trends. This is extremely useful in being prepared for long-term natural hazards. The results of this study will be helpful to LADOTD and infrastructure managers and officials who are tasked with resiliency planning and management. Research results will also directly benefit university researchers in the state, Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority and LADOTD/LTRC through collaborative activity which will educate both professionals and the

  4. Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene Sea-Level Change from Coral Microatolls, French Polynesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Eisenhauer, A.; Vella, C.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Pothin, V.; Dussouillez, P.; Fleury, J.

    2017-12-01

    Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the Anthropocene. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level changes in French Polynesia encompassing the last 6,000 years were reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to

  5. Impacts of Climate Modes on Air–Sea Heat Exchange in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Abualnaja, Yasser; Papadopoulos, Vassilis P.; Josey, Simon A.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Kontoyiannis, Harilaos; Raitsos, Dionysios E.

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of various climate modes on the Red Sea surface heat exchange are investigated using the MERRA reanalysis and the OAFlux satellite reanalysis datasets. Seasonality in the atmospheric forcing is also explored. Mode impacts peak during

  6. Younger Dryas sea level and meltwater pulse 1B recorded in Barbados reef crest coral Acropora palmata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul, N. A.; Mortlock, R. A.; Wright, J. D.; Fairbanks, R. G.

    2016-02-01

    The Younger Dryas climate event occurred during the middle of the last deglacial cycle and is marked by an abrupt shift in the North Atlantic polar front almost to its former glacial position, trending east to west. Using high-precision and high-accuracy U-Th-dated Barbados reef crest coral, Acropora palmata, we generate a detailed sea level record from 13.9 to 9000 years before present (kyr B.P.) and reconstruct the ice volume response to the Younger Dryas cooling. From the mid-Allerød (13.9 kyr B.P.) to the end of the Younger Dryas (11.65 kyr B.P.), rates of sea level rise decreased smoothly from 20 mm yr-1 to 4 mm yr-1, culminating in a 400 year "slow stand" before accelerating into meltwater pulse 1B (MWP-1B). The MWP-1B event at Barbados is better constrained as beginning by 11.45 kyr B.P. and ending at 11.1 kyr B.P. during which time sea level rose 14 ± 2 m and rates of sea level rise reached 40 mm yr-1. We propose that MWP-1B is the direct albeit lagged response of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to the rapid warming marking the end of the Younger Dryas coinciding with rapid warming in the circum-North Atlantic region and the polar front shift from its zonal to meridional position 11.65 kyr B.P. As predicted by glaciological models, the ice sheet response to rapid North Atlantic warming was lagged by 400 years due to the thermal inertia of large ice sheets. The regional circum-North Atlantic Younger Dryas climate event is elevated to a global response through sea level changes, starting with the global slowdown in sea level rise during the Younger Dryas and culminating with MWP-1B. No meltwater pulses are evident at the initiation of the Younger Dryas climate event as is often speculated.

  7. Sea Level Changes: Determination and Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth, P. L.; Pugh, D. T.; DeRonde, J. G.; Warrick, R. G.; Hannah, J.

    The measurement of sea level is of fundamental importance to a wide range of research in climatology, oceanography, geology and geodesy. This volume attempts to cover many aspects of the field. The volume opens with a description by Bolduc and Murty of one of the products stemming from the development of tide gauge networks in the northern and tropical Atlantic. This work is relevant to the growth of the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS), the main goal of which is to provide the world with an efficient, coherent sea level monitoring system for océanographie and climatological research. The subsequent four papers present results from the analysis of existing tide gauge data, including those datasets available from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level and the TOGA Sea Level Center. Two of the four, by Wroblewski and by Pasaric and Orlic, are concerned with European sea level changes, while Yu Jiye et al. discuss inter-annual changes in the Pacific, and Wang Baocan et al. describe variability in the Changjiang estuary in China. The papers by El- Abd and A wad, on Red Sea levels, are the only contributions to the volume from the large research community of geologists concerned with sea level changes.

  8. Sea Level Trend and Variability in the Straits of Singapore and Malacca

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luu, Q.; Tkalich, P.

    2013-12-01

    The Straits of Singapore and Malacca (SSM) connect the Andaman Sea located northeast of the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea, the largest marginal sea situated in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Consequently, sea level in the SSM is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale sea level variability is dominant by the Asian monsoon. Interannual sea level signals are modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In the long term, regional sea level is driven by the global climate change. However, relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on regional sea level in the SSM are yet to be quantified. In present study, publicly available tide gauge records and satellite altimetry data are used to derive long-term sea level trend and variability in SSM. We used the data from research-quality stations, including four located in the Singapore Strait (Tanjong Pagar, Raffles Lighthouse, Sultan Shoal and Sembawang) and seven situated in the Malacca Strait (Kelang, Keling, Kukup, Langkawji, Lumut, Penang and Ko Taphao Noi), each one having 25-39 year data up to the year 2011. Harmonic analysis is performed to filter out astronomic tides from the tide gauge records when necessary; and missing data are reconstructed using identified relationships between sea level and the governing phenomena. The obtained sea level anomalies (SLAs) and reconstructed mean sea level are then validated against satellite altimetry data from AVISO. At multi-decadal scale, annual measured sea level in the SSM is varying with global mean sea level, rising for the period 1984-2009 at the rate 1.8-2.3 mm/year in the Singapore Strait and 1.1-2.8 mm/year in the Malacca Strait. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ×5 cm with correlation coefficient

  9. Causes of accelerating sea level on the East Coast of North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, James L; Vinogradova, Nadya T

    2017-05-28

    The tide-gauge record from the North American East Coast reveals significant accelerations in sea level starting in the late twentieth century. The estimated post-1990 accelerations range from near zero to ∼0.3 mm yr -2 . We find that the observed sea level acceleration is well modeled using several processes: mass change in Greenland and Antarctica as measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites; ocean dynamic and steric variability provided by the GECCO2 ocean synthesis; and the inverted barometer effect. However, to achieve this fit requires estimation of an admittance for the dynamical and steric contribution, possibly due to the coarse resolution of this analysis or to simplifications associated with parameterization of bottom friction in the shallow coastal areas. The acceleration from ice loss alone is equivalent to a regional sea level rise in one century of 0.2 m in the north and 0.75 m in the south of this region.

  10. Global sea level variations from altimetry, GRACE and Argo data over 2005–2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Feng

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Total sea level variations (SLVs are caused by two major components: steric variations due to thermal expansion of seawater, and mass-induced variations due to mass exchange between ocean and land. In this study, the global SLV and its steric and mass components were estimated by satellite altimetry, Argo float data and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE data over 2005–2014. Space gravimetry observations from GRACE suggested that two-thirds of the global mean sea level rise rate observed by altimetry (i.e., 3.1 ± 0.3 mm/a from 2005 to 2014 could be explained by an increase in ocean mass. Furthermore, the global mean sea level was observed to drop significantly during the 2010/2011 La Niña event, which may be attributed to the decline of ocean mass and steric SLV. Since early 2011, the global mean sea level began to rise rapidly, which was attributed to an increase in ocean mass. The findings in this study suggested that the global mean sea-level budget was closed from 2005 to 2014 based on altimetry, GRACE, and Argo data.

  11. Climatic features of the Red Sea from a regional assimilative model

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu; Dasari, Hari Prasad; Langodan, Sabique; Challa, Venkata Srinivas; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2016-01-01

    over the Red Sea compared to global analysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. We use the dataset to describe the atmospheric climatic conditions over the Red Sea region. © 2016 Royal Meteorological Society.

  12. Fisheries management responses to climate change in the Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, Thomas Talund; Hoff, Ayoe; Frost, Hans S.

    2015-01-01

    The long term management plan for cod in the eastern Baltic Sea was introduced in 2007 to ensure the full reproductive capacity of cod and an economically viable fishing industry. If these goals are to be fulfilled under changing environmental conditions, a readjustment of the current management ...... scenarios in which the economic consequences of different management objectives for the fishing fleets are assessed through a dynamic multi-species and multi-fleet bio-economic assessment model that include both species interactions and climate change....... plan may be needed. Therefore, this paper investigates the economic impacts of managing the cod, sprat and herring stocks in the eastern Baltic Sea, given on-going climate change, which is known to affect cod recruitment negatively. It is shown that climate change may have severe biological......The long term management plan for cod in the eastern Baltic Sea was introduced in 2007 to ensure the full reproductive capacity of cod and an economically viable fishing industry. If these goals are to be fulfilled under changing environmental conditions, a readjustment of the current management...

  13. Contribution of vertical land motions to coastal sea level variations: a global synthesis of multisatellite altimetry, tide gauge and GPS measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeffer, Julia; Allemand, Pascal

    2016-04-01

    Coastal sea level variations result from a complex mix of climatic, oceanic and geodynamical processes driven by natural and anthropogenic constraints. Combining data from multiple sources is one solution to identify particular processes and progress towards a better understanding of the sea level variations and the assessment of their impacts at coast. Here, we present a global database merging multisatellite altimetry with tide gauges and Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements. Vertical land motions and sea level variations are estimated simultaneously for a network of 886 ground stations with median errors lower than 1 mm/yr. The contribution of vertical land motions to relative sea level variations is explored to better understand the natural hazards associated with sea level rise in coastal areas. Worldwide, vertical land motions dominate 30 % of observed coastal trends. The role of the crust is highly heterogeneous: it can amplify, restrict or counter the effects of climate-induced sea level change. A set of 182 potential vulnerable localities are identified by large coastal subsidence which increases by several times the effects of sea level rise. Though regional behaviours exist, principally caused by GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment), the local variability in vertical land motion prevails. An accurate determination of the vertical motions observed at the coast is fundamental to understand the local processes which contribute to sea level rise, to appraise its impacts on coastal populations and make future predictions.

  14. Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriver, Ryan L; Lempert, Robert J; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

    2018-01-01

    Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments

  15. Late Pleistocene Vegetation, Climate and Relative Sea Level Changes in the Southeastern Brazilian Coast, Based on C and N Isotopes and Bio Indicator Analysis of Mangrove Organic Matter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pessenda, L. C.R.; Vidotto, E.; Buso, Jr., A. A.; Assarini, Jr., J. P.; Bendassollia, J. A. [Center for Nuclear Energy in Agriculture (CENA), University of Sao Paulo (USP), Piracicaba, Sao Paulo (Brazil); De Oliveira, P. E. [University of Guarulhos (UNG), Guarulhos, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Macias, F. [' ' Luiz de Queiroz' ' College of Agriculture/USP, Piracicaba, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Ricardi-Branco, F. [University of Campinas - Geosciences Institute, Campinas, Sao Paulo (Brazil)

    2013-07-15

    On the southeastern Brazilian coast, mangrove organic matter records have been studied by C and N isotopes, pollen and diatom analysis to reconstruct 40 ka of vegetation and climatic history. The {delta}{sup 13}C and {delta}{sup 15}N presented more depleted values from 40 to 19 ka BP. The high C/N ratios and depleted isotopic values indicate the predominance of C3 land plants in the location presently occupied by the mangrove vegetation, and a lower sea level than today. The presence of pollen of Ilex, Weinmannia, Symplocos, Drimys and Podocarpus suggest a colder and more humid climate than present. From 19 to 2.2 ka BP a sedimentary hiatus is associated with a sea level rise. The presence of mangrove in its present position since at least 2.200 a BP and the return of the marine coastline are associated with the lowest C/N ratio, more enriched {delta}{sup 13}C and {delta}{sup 15}N values and the presence of marine diatoms. (author)

  16. Unified Sea Ice Thickness Climate Data Record Collection Spanning 1947-2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Unified Sea Ice Thickness Climate Data Record is the result of a concerted effort to collect as many observations as possible of Arctic sea-ice draft, freeboard,...

  17. Statistical analysis of the acceleration of Baltic mean sea-level rise, 1900-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birgit Hünicke

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available We analyse annual mean sea-level records from tide-gauges located in the Baltic and parts of the North Sea with the aim of detecting an acceleration of sea-level rise over the 20textsuperscript{th} and 21textsuperscript{st} centuries. The acceleration is estimated as a (1 fit to a polynomial of order two in time, (2 a long-term linear increase in the rates computed over gliding overlapping decadal time segments, and (3 a long-term increase of the annual increments of sea level.The estimation methods (1 and (2 prove to be more powerful in detecting acceleration when tested with sea-level records produced in global climate model simulations. These methods applied to the Baltic-Sea tide-gauges are, however, not powerful enough to detect a significant acceleration in most of individual records, although most estimated accelerations are positive. This lack of detection of statistically significant acceleration at the individual tide-gauge level can be due to the high-level of local noise and not necessarily to the absence of acceleration.The estimated accelerations tend to be stronger in the north and east of the Baltic Sea. Two hypothesis to explain this spatial pattern have been explored. One is that this pattern reflects the slow-down of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment. However, a simple estimation of this effect suggests that this slow-down cannot explain the estimated acceleration. The second hypothesis is related to the diminishing sea-ice cover over the 20textsuperscript{th} century. The melting o of less saline and colder sea-ice can lead to changes in sea-level. Also, the melting of sea-ice can reduce the number of missing values in the tide-gauge records in winter, potentially influencing the estimated trends and acceleration of seasonal mean sea-level This hypothesis cannot be ascertained either since the spatial pattern of acceleration computed for winter and summer separately are very similar. The all-station-average-record displays an

  18. The role of sea-ice albedo in the climate of slowly rotating aquaplanets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salameh, Josiane; Popp, Max; Marotzke, Jochem

    2018-04-01

    We investigate the influence of the rotation period (P_{rot}) on the mean climate of an aquaplanet, with a focus on the role of sea-ice albedo. We perform aquaplanet simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6 for various rotation periods from one Earth-day to 365 Earth-days in which case the planet is synchronously rotating. The global-mean surface temperature decreases with increasing P_{rot} and sea ice expands equatorwards. The cooling of the mean climate with increasing P_{rot} is caused partly by the high surface albedo of sea ice on the dayside and partly by the high albedo of the deep convective clouds over the substellar region. The cooling caused by these deep convective clouds is weak for non-synchronous rotations compared to synchronous rotation. Sensitivity simulations with the sea-ice model switched off show that the global-mean surface temperature is up to 27 K higher than in our main simulations with sea ice and thus highlight the large influence of sea ice on the climate. We present the first estimates of the influence of the rotation period on the transition of an Earth-like climate to global glaciation. Our results suggest that global glaciation of planets with synchronous rotation occurs at substantially lower incoming solar irradiation than for planets with slow but non-synchronous rotation.

  19. Impact of Desiccation of Aral Sea on the Regional Climate of Central Asia Using WRF Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Ashish; Huang, Huei-Ping; Zavialov, Peter; Khan, Valentina

    2018-01-01

    This study explores the impacts of the desiccation of the Aral Sea and large-scale climate change on the regional climate of Central Asia in the post-1960 era. A series of climate downscaling experiments for the 1960's and 2000's decades were performed using the Weather Research and Forecast model at 12-km horizontal resolution. To quantify the impacts of the changing surface boundary condition, a set of simulations with an identical lateral boundary condition but different extents of the Aral Sea were performed. It was found that the desiccation of the Aral Sea leads to more snow (and less rain) as desiccated winter surface is relatively much colder than water surface. In summer, desiccation led to substantial warming over the Aral Sea. These impacts were largely confined to within the area covered by the former Aral Sea and its immediate vicinity, although desiccation of the Sea also led to minor cooling over the greater Central Asia in winter. A contrasting set of simulations with an identical surface boundary condition but different lateral boundary conditions produced more identifiable changes in regional climate over the greater Central Asia which was characterized by a warming trend in both winter and summer. Simulations also showed that while the desiccation of the Aral Sea has significant impacts on the local climate over the Sea, the climate over the greater Central Asia on inter-decadal time scale was more strongly influenced by the continental or global-scale climate change on that time scale.

  20. Mass-induced sea level variations in the Red Sea from GRACE, steric-corrected altimetry, in situ bottom pressure records, and hydrographic observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, W.; Lemoine, J.-M.; Zhong, M.; Hsu, H. T.

    2014-08-01

    An annual amplitude of ∼18 cm mass-induced sea level variations (SLV) in the Red Sea is detected from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and steric-corrected altimetry from 2003 to 2011. The annual mass variations in the region dominate the mean SLV, and generally reach maximum in late January/early February. The annual steric component of the mean SLV is relatively small (mass-induced SLV. In situ bottom pressure records at the eastern coast of the Red Sea validate the high mass variability observed by steric-corrected altimetry and GRACE. In addition, the horizontal water mass flux of the Red Sea estimated from GRACE and steric-corrected altimetry is validated by hydrographic observations.

  1. Reconstruction of Local Sea Levels at South West Pacific Islands—A Multiple Linear Regression Approach (1988-2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, V.; Melet, A.; Meyssignac, B.; Ganachaud, A.; Kessler, W. S.; Singh, A.; Aucan, J.

    2018-02-01

    Rising sea levels are a critical concern in small island nations. The problem is especially serious in the western south Pacific, where the total sea level rise over the last 60 years has been up to 3 times the global average. In this study, we aim at reconstructing sea levels at selected sites in the region (Suva, Lautoka—Fiji, and Nouméa—New Caledonia) as a multilinear regression (MLR) of atmospheric and oceanic variables. We focus on sea level variability at interannual-to-interdecadal time scales, and trend over the 1988-2014 period. Local sea levels are first expressed as a sum of steric and mass changes. Then a dynamical approach is used based on wind stress curl as a proxy for the thermosteric component, as wind stress curl anomalies can modulate the thermocline depth and resultant sea levels via Rossby wave propagation. Statistically significant predictors among wind stress curl, halosteric sea level, zonal/meridional wind stress components, and sea surface temperature are used to construct a MLR model simulating local sea levels. Although we are focusing on the local scale, the global mean sea level needs to be adjusted for. Our reconstructions provide insights on key drivers of sea level variability at the selected sites, showing that while local dynamics and the global signal modulate sea level to a given extent, most of the variance is driven by regional factors. On average, the MLR model is able to reproduce 82% of the variance in island sea level, and could be used to derive local sea level projections via downscaling of climate models.

  2. Inuit and Scientific Perspectives on the Relationship Between Sea Ice and Climate Change. The Ideal Complement?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laidler, G.J. [Department of Geography, University of Toronto at Mississauga, 3359 Mississauga Road North, Mississauga, Ontario, L5L 1C6 (Canada)

    2006-10-15

    Sea ice is influential in regulating energy exchanges between the ocean and the atmosphere, and has figured prominently in scientific studies of climate change and climate feedbacks. However, sea ice is also a vital component of everyday life in Inuit communities of the circumpolar Arctic. Therefore, it is important to understand the links between the potential impacts of climate change on Arctic sea ice extent, distribution, and thickness as well as the related consequences for northern coastal populations. This paper explores the relationship between sea ice and climate change from both scientific and Inuit perspectives. Based on an overview of diverse literature the experiences, methods, and goals which differentiate local and scientific sea ice knowledge are examined. These efforts are considered essential background upon which to develop more accurate assessments of community vulnerability to climate, and resulting sea ice, change. Inuit and scientific perspectives may indeed be the ideal complement when investigating the links between sea ice and climate change, but effective and appropriate conceptual bridges need to be built between the two types of expertise. The complementary nature of these knowledge systems may only be realized, in a practical sense, if significant effort is expended to: (1) understand sea ice from both Inuit and scientific perspectives, along with their underlying differences; (2) investigate common interests or concerns; (3) establish meaningful and reciprocal research partnerships with Inuit communities; (4) engage in, and improve, collaborative research methods; and, (5) maintain ongoing dialogue.

  3. Eustatic and Relative Sea Level Changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Stocchi, P.; Vacchi, M.

    2016-01-01

    Sea level changes can be driven by either variationsin the masses or volume of the oceans, or bychanges of the land with respect to the sea surface. Inthe first case, a sea level change is defined ‘eustatic’;otherwise, it is defined ‘relative’. Several techniques canbe used to observe changes in sea

  4. Coping with Higher Sea Levels and Increased Coastal Flooding in New York City. Chapter 13

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gornitz, Vivien; Horton, Radley; Bader, Daniel A.; Orton, Philip; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

    2017-01-01

    The 837 km New York City shoreline is lined by significant economic assets and dense population vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal flooding. After Hurricane Sandy in 2012, New York City developed a comprehensive plan to mitigate future climate risks, drawing upon the scientific expertise of the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), a special advisory group comprised of university and private-sector experts. This paper highlights current NPCC findings regarding sea level rise and coastal flooding, with some of the City's ongoing and planned responses. Twentieth century sea level rise in New York City (2.8 cm/decade) exceeded the global average (1.7 cm/decade), underscoring the enhanced regional risk to coastal hazards. NPCC (2015) projects future sea level rise at the Battery of 28 - 53 cm by the 2050s and 46 - 99 cm by the 2080s, relative to 2000 - 2004 (mid-range, 25th - 75th percentile). High-end SLR estimates (90th percentile) reach 76 cm by the 2050s, and 1.9 m by 2100. Combining these projections with updated FEMA flood return period curves, assuming static flood dynamics and storm behavior, flood heights for the 100-year storm (excluding waves) attain 3.9-4.5 m (mid-range), relative to the NAVD88 tidal datum, and 4.9 m (high end) by the 2080s, up from 3.4 m in the 2000s. Flood heights with a 1% annual chance of occurrence in the 2000s increase to 2.0 - 5.4% (mid-range) and 12.7% per year (high-end), by the 2080s. Guided by NPCC (2013, 2015) findings, New York City has embarked on a suite of initiatives to strengthen coastal defenses, employing various approaches tailored to specific neighborhood needs. NPCC continues its collaboration with the city to investigate vulnerability to extreme climate events, including heat waves, inland floods and coastal storms. Current research entails higher-resolution neighborhood-level coastal flood mapping, changes in storm characteristics, surge height interactions with sea level rise, and stronger engagement

  5. Verification of a New NOAA/NSIDC Passive Microwave Sea-Ice Concentration Climate Record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Walter N.; Peng, Ge; Scott, Donna J.; Savoie, Matt H.

    2014-01-01

    A new satellite-based passive microwave sea-ice concentration product developed for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Climate Data Record (CDR) programme is evaluated via comparison with other passive microwave-derived estimates. The new product leverages two well-established concentration algorithms, known as the NASA Team and Bootstrap, both developed at and produced by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The sea ice estimates compare well with similar GSFC products while also fulfilling all NOAA CDR initial operation capability (IOC) requirements, including (1) self describing file format, (2) ISO 19115-2 compliant collection-level metadata,(3) Climate and Forecast (CF) compliant file-level metadata, (4) grid-cell level metadata (data quality fields), (5) fully automated and reproducible processing and (6) open online access to full documentation with version control, including source code and an algorithm theoretical basic document. The primary limitations of the GSFC products are lack of metadata and use of untracked manual corrections to the output fields. Smaller differences occur from minor variations in processing methods by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (for the CDR fields) and NASA (for the GSFC fields). The CDR concentrations do have some differences from the constituent GSFC concentrations, but trends and variability are not substantially different.

  6. Uncertainty Quantification for Ice Sheet Science and Sea Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boening, C.; Schlegel, N.; Limonadi, D.; Schodlok, M.; Seroussi, H. L.; Larour, E. Y.; Watkins, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    In order to better quantify uncertainties in global mean sea level rise projections and in particular upper bounds, we aim at systematically evaluating the contributions from ice sheets and potential for extreme sea level rise due to sudden ice mass loss. Here, we take advantage of established uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) as well as sensitivities to ice/ocean interactions using melt rates and melt potential derived from MITgcm/ECCO2. With the use of these tools, we conduct Monte-Carlo style sampling experiments on forward simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet, by varying internal parameters and boundary conditions of the system over both extreme and credible worst-case ranges. Uncertainty bounds for climate forcing are informed by CMIP5 ensemble precipitation and ice melt estimates for year 2100, and uncertainty bounds for ocean melt rates are derived from a suite of regional sensitivity experiments using MITgcm. Resulting statistics allow us to assess how regional uncertainty in various parameters affect model estimates of century-scale sea level rise projections. The results inform efforts to a) isolate the processes and inputs that are most responsible for determining ice sheet contribution to sea level; b) redefine uncertainty brackets for century-scale projections; and c) provide a prioritized list of measurements, along with quantitative information on spatial and temporal resolution, required for reducing uncertainty in future sea level rise projections. Results indicate that ice sheet mass loss is dependent on the spatial resolution of key boundary conditions - such as bedrock topography and melt rates at the ice-ocean interface. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

  7. Climate program "stone soup": Assessing climate change vulnerabilities in the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littell, J. S.; Poe, A.; van Pelt, T.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is already affecting the Bering Sea and Aleutian Island region of Alaska. Past and present marine research across a broad spectrum of disciplines is shedding light on what sectors of the ecosystem and the human dimension will be most impacted. In a grassroots approach to extend existing research efforts, leveraging recently completed downscaled climate projections for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region, we convened a team of 30 researchers-- with expertise ranging from anthropology to zooplankton to marine mammals-- to assess climate projections in the context of their expertise. This Aleutian-Bering Climate Vulnerability Assessment (ABCVA) began with researchers working in five teams to evaluate the vulnerabilities of key species and ecosystem services relative to projected changes in climate. Each team identified initial vulnerabilities for their focal species or services, and made recommendations for further research and information needs that would help managers and communities better understand the implications of the changing climate in this region. Those draft recommendations were shared during two focused, public sessions held within two hub communities for the Bering and Aleutian region: Unalaska and St. Paul. Qualitative insights about local concerns and observations relative to climate change were collected during these sessions, to be compared to the recommendations being made by the ABCVA team of researchers. Finally, we used a Structured Decision Making process to prioritize the recommendations of participating scientists, and integrate the insights shared during our community sessions. This work brought together residents, stakeholders, scientists, and natural resource managers to collaboratively identify priorities for addressing current and expected future impacts of climate change. Recommendations from this project will be incorporated into future research efforts of the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands Landscape Conservation

  8. Centennial-scale climate change from decadally-paced explosive volcanism: a coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhong, Y. [University of Colorado, INSTAAR, Boulder, CO (United States); Miller, G.H. [University of Colorado, INSTAAR, Boulder, CO (United States); University of Colorado, Department of Geological Sciences, Boulder, CO (United States); Otto-Bliesner, B.L.; Holland, M.M.; Bailey, D.A. [NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States); Schneider, D.P. [NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States); University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO (United States); Geirsdottir, A. [University of Iceland, Department of Earth Sciences and Institute of Earth Sciences, Reykjavik (Iceland)

    2011-12-15

    Northern Hemisphere summer cooling through the Holocene is largely driven by the steady decrease in summer insolation tied to the precession of the equinoxes. However, centennial-scale climate departures, such as the Little Ice Age, must be caused by other forcings, most likely explosive volcanism and changes in solar irradiance. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols have the stronger forcing, but their short residence time likely precludes a lasting climate impact from a single eruption. Decadally paced explosive volcanism may produce a greater climate impact because the long response time of ocean surface waters allows for a cumulative decrease in sea-surface temperatures that exceeds that of any single eruption. Here we use a global climate model to evaluate the potential long-term climate impacts from four decadally paced large tropical eruptions. Direct forcing results in a rapid expansion of Arctic Ocean sea ice that persists throughout the eruption period. The expanded sea ice increases the flux of sea ice exported to the northern North Atlantic long enough that it reduces the convective warming of surface waters in the subpolar North Atlantic. In two of our four simulations the cooler surface waters being advected into the Arctic Ocean reduced the rate of basal sea-ice melt in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, allowing sea ice to remain in an expanded state for > 100 model years after volcanic aerosols were removed from the stratosphere. In these simulations the coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism maintains the strong positive feedbacks of an expanded Arctic Ocean sea ice cover, allowing the initial cooling related to the direct effect of volcanic aerosols to be perpetuated, potentially resulting in a centennial-scale or longer change of state in Arctic climate. The fact that the sea ice-ocean mechanism was not established in two of our four simulations suggests that a long-term sea ice response to volcanic forcing is sensitive to the stability of the seawater

  9. Canadian snow and sea ice: assessment of snow, sea ice, and related climate processes in Canada's Earth system model and climate-prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushner, Paul J.; Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Merryfield, William; Ambadan, Jaison T.; Berg, Aaron; Bichet, Adéline; Brown, Ross; Derksen, Chris; Déry, Stephen J.; Dirkson, Arlan; Flato, Greg; Fletcher, Christopher G.; Fyfe, John C.; Gillett, Nathan; Haas, Christian; Howell, Stephen; Laliberté, Frédéric; McCusker, Kelly; Sigmond, Michael; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Tandon, Neil F.; Thackeray, Chad; Tremblay, Bruno; Zwiers, Francis W.

    2018-04-01

    The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state-of-the-art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. This study presents an assessment from the CanSISE Network of the ability of the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) to simulate and predict snow and sea ice from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the Canadian sector. To account for observational uncertainty, model structural uncertainty, and internal climate variability, the analysis uses multi-source observations, multiple Earth system models (ESMs) in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and large initial-condition ensembles of CanESM2 and other models. It is found that the ability of the CanESM2 simulation to capture snow-related climate parameters, such as cold-region surface temperature and precipitation, lies within the range of currently available international models. Accounting for the considerable disagreement among satellite-era observational datasets on the distribution of snow water equivalent, CanESM2 has too much springtime snow mass over Canada, reflecting a broader northern hemispheric positive bias. Biases in seasonal snow cover extent are generally less pronounced. CanESM2 also exhibits retreat of springtime snow generally greater than observational estimates, after accounting for observational uncertainty and internal variability. Sea ice is biased low in the Canadian Arctic, which makes it difficult to assess the realism of long-term sea ice trends there. The strengths and weaknesses of the modelling system need to be understood as a practical tradeoff: the Canadian models are relatively inexpensive computationally because of their moderate resolution, thus enabling their

  10. Monitoring sea level and sea surface temperature trends from ERS satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per; Beckley, B.

    2002-01-01

    Data from the two ESA satellites ERS-1 and ERS-2 are used in global and regional analysis of sea level and sea surface temperature trends over the last, 7.8 years. T he ERS satellites and in the future the ENVISAT satellite provide unique opportunity for monitoring both changes in sea level and sea...

  11. Climatic anomaly affects the immune competence of California sea lions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Banuet-Martínez

    Full Text Available The past decades have been characterized by a growing number of climatic anomalies. As these anomalies tend to occur suddenly and unexpectedly, it is often difficult to procure empirical evidence of their effects on natural populations. We analysed how the recent sea surface temperature (SST anomaly in the northeastern Pacific Ocean affects body condition, nutritional status, and immune competence of California sea lion pups. We found that pup body condition and blood glucose levels of the pups were lower during high SST events, although other biomarkers of malnutrition remained unchanged, suggesting that pups were experiencing early stages of starvation. Glucose-dependent immune responses were affected by the SST anomaly; specifically, pups born during high SST events had lower serum concentrations of IgG and IgA, and were unable to respond to an immune challenge. This means that not only were pups that were born during the SST anomaly less able to synthesize protective antibodies; they were also limited in their ability to respond rapidly to nonspecific immune challenges. Our study provides empirical evidence that atypical climatic conditions can limit energetic reserves and compromise physiological responses that are essential for the survival of a marine top predator.

  12. New Constraints from the Seychelles on the Timing and Magnitude of Peak Global Mean Sea Level during the Last Interglacial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyverberg, K.; Dechnik, B.; Dutton, A.; Webster, J.; Zwartz, D.; Edwards, R. L.

    2016-12-01

    Projecting the rate of future sea-level rise remains a primary challenge associated with continued climate change. However, uncertainties remain in our understanding of the rate of polar ice sheet retreat in warmer-than-present climates. To address this issue, we present a new sea level reconstruction from the tectonically stable granitic Seychelles based on Last Interglacial coral ages and elevations within their sedimentary and stratigraphic context, including estimates of paleo-water depth based on newly defined coralgal assemblages. The reef facies analyzed here has a narrow and shallow paleowater depth range (dwelling barnacles. These disturbance layers may have been generated through internal reef processes and/or external agents, including coral disease, bleaching, predation, hurricanes, or sub-aerial exposure. In total, these new observations provide improved constraints on the timing, magnitude, and rates of sea-level rise during the Last Interglacial.

  13. Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Guinehut, Stéphanie; Xue, Yan; Szekely, Tanguy; Fukumori, Ichiro; Forget, Gael; Chang, You-Soon; Good, Simon A.; Köhl, Armin; Vernieres, Guillaume; Ferry, Nicolas; Peterson, K. Andrew; Behringer, David; Ishii, Masayoshi; Masuda, Shuhei; Fujii, Yosuke; Toyoda, Takahiro; Yin, Yonghong; Valdivieso, Maria; Barnier, Bernard; Boyer, Tim; Lee, Tony; Gourrion, Jérome; Wang, Ou; Heimback, Patrick; Rosati, Anthony; Kovach, Robin; Hernandez, Fabrice; Martin, Matthew J.; Kamachi, Masafumi; Kuragano, Tsurane; Mogensen, Kristian; Alves, Oscar; Haines, Keith; Wang, Xiaochun

    2017-08-01

    Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003-2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993-2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.

  14. The economic impact of sea-level rise on nonmarket lands in Singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Wei-Shiuen; Mendelsohn, Robert

    2006-09-01

    Sea-level rise, as a result of climate change, will likely inflict considerable economic consequences on coastal regions, particularly low-lying island states like Singapore. Although the literature has addressed the vulnerability of developed coastal lands, this is the first economic study to address nonmarket lands, such as beaches, marshes and mangrove estuaries. This travel cost and contingent valuation study reveals that consumers in Singapore attach considerable value to beaches. The contingent valuation study also attached high values to marshes and mangroves but this result was not supported by the travel cost study. Although protecting nonmarket land uses from sea-level rise is expensive, the study shows that at least highly valued resources, such as Singapore's popular beaches, should be protected.

  15. Airborne geophysics for mesoscale observations of polar sea ice in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendricks, S.; Haas, C.; Krumpen, T.; Eicken, H.; Mahoney, A. R.

    2016-12-01

    Sea ice thickness is an important geophysical parameter with a significant impact on various processes of the polar energy balance. It is classified as Essential Climate Variable (ECV), however the direct observations of the large ice-covered oceans are limited due to the harsh environmental conditions and logistical constraints. Sea-ice thickness retrieval by the means of satellite remote sensing is an active field of research, but current observational capabilities are not able to capture the small scale variability of sea ice thickness and its evolution in the presence of surface melt. We present an airborne observation system based on a towed electromagnetic induction sensor that delivers long range measurements of sea ice thickness for a wide range of sea ice conditions. The purpose-built sensor equipment can be utilized from helicopters and polar research aircraft in multi-role science missions. While airborne EM induction sounding is used in sea ice research for decades, the future challenge is the development of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platform that meet the requirements for low-level EM sea ice surveys in terms of range and altitude of operations. The use of UAV's could enable repeated sea ice surveys during the the polar night, when manned operations are too dangerous and the observational data base is presently very sparse.

  16. Constraining the Antarctic contribution to interglacial sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naish, T.; Mckay, R. M.; Barrett, P. J.; Levy, R. H.; Golledge, N. R.; Deconto, R. M.; Horgan, H. J.; Dunbar, G. B.

    2015-12-01

    Observations, models and paleoclimate reconstructions suggest that Antarctica's marine-based ice sheets behave in an unstable manner with episodes of rapid retreat in response to warming climate. Understanding the processes involved in this "marine ice sheet instability" is key for improving estimates of Antarctic ice sheet contribution to future sea-level rise. Another motivating factor is that far-field sea-level reconstructions and ice sheet models imply global mean sea level (GMSL) was up to 20m and 10m higher, respectively, compared with present day, during the interglacials of the warm Pliocene (~4-3Ma) and Late Pleistocene (at ~400ka and 125ka). This was when atmospheric CO2 was between 280 and 400ppm and global average surface temperatures were 1- 3°C warmer, suggesting polar ice sheets are highly sensitive to relatively modest increases in climate forcing. Such magnitudes of GMSL rise not only require near complete melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but a substantial retreat of marine-based sectors of East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent geological drilling initiatives on the continental margin of Antarctica from both ship- (e.g. IODP; International Ocean Discovery Program) and ice-based (e.g. ANDRILL/Antarctic Geological Drilling) platforms have provided evidence supporting retreat of marine-based ice. However, without direct access through the ice sheet to archives preserved within sub-glacial sedimentary basins, the volume and extent of ice sheet retreat during past interglacials cannot be directly constrained. Sediment cores have been successfully recovered from beneath ice shelves by the ANDRILL Program and ice streams by the WISSARD (Whillans Ice Stream Sub-glacial Access Research Drilling) Project. Together with the potential of the new RAID (Rapid Access Ice Drill) initiative, these demonstrate the technological feasibility of accessing the subglacial bed and deeper sedimentary archives. In this talk I will outline the

  17. Sea level rise under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, C. F.; Nauels, A.; Rogelj, J.; Mengel, M.; Meinshausen, M.

    2017-12-01

    In order to assess future sea level rise and its impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present Sea Level Rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative Forcing Targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for latest research on additional Antarctic rapid discharge dynamics from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986-2005 of 102 cm (likely range: 77 to 135 cm) for SSP1, 118 cm (90 to 151 cm) for SSP2, 118 cm (91 to 149 cm) for SSP3, 107 cm (81 to 137 cm) for SSP4, and 144 cm (112 to 184 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios is dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 68 cm (56 to 87 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm-2, 76 cm (61 to 107 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm-2, 90 cm (68 to 120 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm-2, and 105 cm (79 to 136 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm-2. Average 2081-2100 annual rates of SLR are 6 mm/yr and 19 mm/yr for the FT 2.6 Wm-2 and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. For limiting median 2100 SSP SLR projections to below 80 cm, we find that 2050 cumulative CO2 emissions since pre-industrial should not exceed around 860 GtC, with the global coal phase-out nearly completed. For SSP mitigation scenarios, the median 2050 carbon price of 90 US$2005 tCO2-1 would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 80 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR.

  18. Advancing Sentinel-1 use in Coastal Climate Impact Assessments and Adaptation – A Case Study from the Danish North Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Marinkovic, Petar; Larsen, Yngvar

    Low-lying coastal communities face increasing challenges from rise in sea level, more extreme storm surge levels and floods. In addition, changing groundwater levels and precipitation patterns may further exacerbate the water-related impacts of climate change on society. Approximately 40,000 km2 ...

  19. Sensitivity analysis of hydrogeological parameters affecting groundwater storage change caused by sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, J.; Kim, K.-H.; Lee, K.-K.

    2012-04-01

    Sea level rise, which is one of the representative phenomena of climate changes caused by global warming, can affect groundwater system. The rising trend of the sea level caused by the global warming is reported to be about 3 mm/year for the most recent 10 year average (IPCC, 2007). The rate of sea level rise around the Korean peninsula is reported to be 2.30±2.22 mm/yr during the 1960-1999 period (Cho, 2002) and 2.16±1.77 mm/yr (Kim et al., 2009) during the 1968-2007 period. Both of these rates are faster than the 1.8±0.5 mm/yr global average for the similar 1961-2003 period (IPCC, 2007). In this study, we analyzed changes in the groundwater environment affected by the sea level rise by using an analytical methodology. We tried to find the most effective parameters of groundwater amount change in order to estimate the change in fresh water amount in coastal groundwater. A hypothetical island model of a cylindrical shape in considered. The groundwater storage change is bi-directional as the sea level rises according to the natural and hydrogeological conditions. Analysis of the computation results shows that topographic slope and hydraulic conductivity are the most sensitive factors. The contributions of the groundwater recharge rate and the thickness of aquifer below sea level are relatively less effective. In the island with steep seashore slopes larger than 1~2 degrees or so, the storage amount of fresh water in a coastal area increases as sea level rises. On the other hand, when sea level drops, the storage amount decreases. This is because the groundwater level also rises with the rising sea level in steep seashores. For relatively flat seashores, where the slope is smaller than around 1-2 degrees, the storage amount of coastal fresh water decreases when the sea level rises because the area flooded by the rising sea water is increased. The volume of aquifer fresh water in this circumstance is greatly reduced in proportion to the flooded area with the sea

  20. Sea-level variability over five glacial cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, K M; Rohling, E J; Ramsey, C Bronk; Cheng, H; Edwards, R L; Florindo, F; Heslop, D; Marra, F; Roberts, A P; Tamisiea, M E; Williams, F

    2014-09-25

    Research on global ice-volume changes during Pleistocene glacial cycles is hindered by a lack of detailed sea-level records for time intervals older than the last interglacial. Here we present the first robustly dated, continuous and highly resolved records of Red Sea sea level and rates of sea-level change over the last 500,000 years, based on tight synchronization to an Asian monsoon record. We observe maximum 'natural' (pre-anthropogenic forcing) sea-level rise rates below 2 m per century following periods with up to twice present-day ice volumes, and substantially higher rise rates for greater ice volumes. We also find that maximum sea-level rise rates were attained within 2 kyr of the onset of deglaciations, for 85% of such events. Finally, multivariate regressions of orbital parameters, sea-level and monsoon records suggest that major meltwater pulses account for millennial-scale variability and insolation-lagged responses in Asian monsoon records.

  1. Coral reef structural complexity provides important coastal protection from waves under rising sea levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Daniel L.; Rovere, Alessio; Casella, Elisa; Power, Hannah; Canavesio, Remy; Collin, Antoine; Pomeroy, Andrew; Webster, Jody M.; Parravicini, Valeriano

    2018-01-01

    Coral reefs are diverse ecosystems that support millions of people worldwide by providing coastal protection from waves. Climate change and human impacts are leading to degraded coral reefs and to rising sea levels, posing concerns for the protection of tropical coastal regions in the near future. We use a wave dissipation model calibrated with empirical wave data to calculate the future increase of back-reef wave height. We show that, in the near future, the structural complexity of coral reefs is more important than sea-level rise in determining the coastal protection provided by coral reefs from average waves. We also show that a significant increase in average wave heights could occur at present sea level if there is sustained degradation of benthic structural complexity. Our results highlight that maintaining the structural complexity of coral reefs is key to ensure coastal protection on tropical coastlines in the future. PMID:29503866

  2. Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, Robert J.; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

    2018-01-01

    Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments

  3. Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan L Sriver

    Full Text Available Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1 Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2 Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making

  4. Possible impacts of sea level rise on disease transmission and potential adaptation strategies, a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dvorak, Ana C; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Galletti, Andrea; Benzecry, Bernardo; Malone, Hannah; Boguszewski, Vicki; Bird, Jason

    2018-04-18

    Sea levels are projected to rise in response to climate change, causing the intrusion of sea water into land. In flat coastal regions, this would generate an increase in shallow water covered areas with limited circulation. This scenario raises a concern about the consequences it could have on human health, specifically the possible impacts on disease transmission. In this review paper we identified three categories of diseases which are associated with water and whose transmission can be affected by sea level rise. These categories include: mosquitoborne diseases, naturalized organisms (Vibrio spp. and toxic algae), and fecal-oral diseases. For each disease category, we propose comprehensive adaptation strategies that would help minimize possible health risks. Finally, the City of Key West, Florida is analyzed as a case study, due to its inherent vulnerability to sea level rise. Current and projected adaptation techniques are discussed as well as the integration of additional recommendations, focused on disease transmission control. Given that sea level rise will likely continue into the future, the promotion and implementation of positive adaptation strategies is necessary to ensure community resilience. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Sea-level Variation Along the Suez Canal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eid, F. M.; Sharaf El-Din, S. H.; Alam El-Din, K. A.

    1997-05-01

    The variation of sea level at 11 stations distributed along the Suez Canal was studied during the period from 1980 to 1986. The ranges of variation in daily mean sea level at Port Said and Port Tawfik are about 60 and 120 cm, respectively. The minimum range of daily variation is at Kantara (47 cm). The fluctuations of the monthly mean sea level between the two ends of the Suez Canal vary from one season to another. From July to December, the sea level at Port Said is higher than that at Port Tawfik, with the maximum difference (10·5 cm) in September. During the rest of the year, the mean sea level at Port Tawfik is higher than that at Port Said, with the maximum difference (31·5 cm) in March. The long-term variations of the annual mean sea level at both Port Said and Port Tawfik for the period from 1923 to 1986 showed a positive trend. The sea level at Port Said increased by about 27·8 cm century -1while it increased by only 9·1 cm century -1at Port Tawfik. This indicates that the difference between sea level at Port Said and Port Tawfik has decreased with time.

  6. The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Machguth, H; Rastner, P; Bolch, T; Mölg, N; Sørensen, L Sandberg; Aðalgeirsdottir, G; Van Angelen, J H; Van den Broeke, M R; Fettweis, X

    2013-01-01

    We calculate the future sea-level rise contribution from the surface mass balance of all of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps (GICs, ∼90 000 km 2 ) using a simplified energy balance model which is driven by three future climate scenarios from the regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2 and MAR. Glacier extent and surface elevation are modified during the mass balance model runs according to a glacier retreat parameterization. Mass balance and glacier surface change are both calculated on a 250 m resolution digital elevation model yielding a high level of detail and ensuring that important feedback mechanisms are considered. The mass loss of all GICs by 2098 is calculated to be 2016 ± 129 Gt (HIRHAM5 forcing), 2584 ± 109 Gt (RACMO2) and 3907 ± 108 Gt (MAR). This corresponds to a total contribution to sea-level rise of 5.8 ± 0.4, 7.4 ± 0.3 and 11.2 ± 0.3 mm, respectively. Sensitivity experiments suggest that mass loss could be higher by 20–30% if a strong lowering of the surface albedo were to take place in the future. It is shown that the sea-level rise contribution from the north-easterly regions of Greenland is reduced by increasing precipitation while mass loss in the southern half of Greenland is dominated by steadily decreasing summer mass balances. In addition we observe glaciers in the north-eastern part of Greenland changing their characteristics towards greater activity and mass turnover. (letter)

  7. Continuous sea-level reconstructions beyond the Pleistocene: improving the Mediterranean sea-level method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, K.; Rohling, E. J.; Amies, J.

    2017-12-01

    Sea-level (SL) reconstructions over glacial-interglacial timeframes are critical for understanding the equilibrium response of ice sheets to sustained warming. In particular, continuous and high-resolution SL records are essential for accurately quantifying `natural' rates of SL rise. Global SL changes are well-constrained since the last glacial maximum ( 20,000 years ago, ky) by radiometrically-dated corals and paleoshoreline data, and fairly well-constrained over the last glacial cycle ( 150 ky). Prior to that, however, studies of ice-volume:SL relationships tend to rely on benthic δ18O, as geomorphological evidence is far more sparse and less reliably dated. An alternative SL reconstruction method (the `marginal basin' approach) was developed for the Red Sea over 500 ky, and recently attempted for the Mediterranean over 5 My (Rohling et al., 2014, Nature). This method exploits the strong sensitivity of seawater δ18O in these basins to SL changes in the relatively narrow and shallow straits which connect the basins with the open ocean. However, the initial Mediterranean SL method did not resolve sea-level highstands during Northern Hemisphere insolation maxima, when African monsoon run-off - strongly depleted in δ18O - reached the Mediterranean. Here, we present improvements to the `marginal basin' sea-level reconstruction method. These include a new `Med-Red SL stack', which combines new probabilistic Mediterranean and Red Sea sea-level stacks spanning the last 500 ky. We also show how a box model-data comparison of water-column δ18O changes over a monsoon interval allows us to quantify the monsoon versus SL δ18O imprint on Mediterranean foraminiferal carbonate δ18O records. This paves the way for a more accurate and fully continuous SL reconstruction extending back through the Pliocene.

  8. Reconciling projections of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Tamsin; Holden, Philip; Edwards, Neil; Wernecke, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Two recent studies of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise this century had best estimates that differed by an order of magnitude (around 10 cm and 1 m by 2100). The first, Ritz et al. (2015), used a model calibrated with satellite data, giving a 5% probability of exceeding 30cm by 2100 for sea level rise due to Antarctic instability. The second, DeConto and Pollard (2016), used a model evaluated with reconstructions of palaeo-sea level. They did not estimate probabilities, but using a simple assumption here about the distribution shape gives up to a 5% chance of Antarctic contribution exceeding 2.3 m this century with total sea level rise approaching 3 m. If robust, this would have very substantial implications for global adaptation to climate change. How are we to make sense of this apparent inconsistency? How much is down to the data - does the past tell us we will face widespread and rapid Antarctic ice losses in the future? How much is due to the mechanism of rapid ice loss ('cliff failure') proposed in the latter paper, or other parameterisation choices in these low resolution models (GRISLI and PISM, respectively)? How much is due to choices made in the ensemble design and calibration? How do these projections compare with high resolution, grounding line resolving models such as BISICLES? Could we reduce the huge uncertainties in the palaeo-study? Emulation provides a powerful tool for understanding these questions and reconciling the projections. By describing the three numerical ice sheet models with statistical models, we can re-analyse the ensembles and re-do the calibrations under a common statistical framework. This reduces uncertainty in the PISM study because it allows massive sampling of the parameter space, which reduces the sensitivity to reconstructed palaeo-sea level values and also narrows the probability intervals because the simple assumption about distribution shape above is no longer needed. We present reconciled probabilistic

  9. Fish production and climate: Sprat in the Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MacKenzie, Brian; Köster, Fritz

    2004-01-01

    Processes controlling the production of new fish (recruitment) are poorly understood and therefore challenge population ecologists and resource managers. Sprat in the Baltic Sea is no exception: recruitment varies widely between years and is virtually independent of the biomass of mature sprat......-scale climate variability (North Atlantic Oscillation), Baltic Sea ice coverage, and water temperature. These relationships increase our understanding of sprat population dynamics and enable a desirable integration of fisheries ecology and management with climatology and oceanography....

  10. Groundwater movement on a Low-lying Carbonate Atoll Island and its Response to Climatic and Sea-level Fluctuations: Roi Namur, Republic of the Marshall Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberle, F. J.; Swarzenski, P. W.; Storlazzi, C. D.

    2017-12-01

    Atoll islands, most of which only average 1-2 meters above today's sea level, provide a tremendous natural laboratory in which to study and better understand the intensifying impacts of high rates of sea-level rise on tropical reef-lined islands. These islands are unique and on the frontline of negative societal impacts due to their geologic structure and limited water supply. Groundwater resources on atolls are typically minimal due to the low elevation and small surface area of the islands and are also subject to recurring droughts, and more frequent, storm-driven seawater overwash events. Although groundwater is the principal means of freshwater storage on atoll islands and is a major factor in determining the overall sustainability of island settlements, hydrological data on how an aquifer will response to changes in sea-level rise or storm-driven overwash remain limited. Here we present high-resolution time series hydrogeological and geochemical data from a 16 month study to determine the role of an atoll's carbonate geology, land use, and atmospheric and oceanographic forcing in driving coastal groundwater exchange including submarine groundwater discharge on the island of Roi-Namur on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. This information can provide new estimates on the recovery and resilience of coastal groundwater resources on similar islands that are expected to experience climate change-driven perturbations.

  11. Morphological changes within Florida Bay as a result of sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, C. W.

    2011-12-01

    Data from Florida Bay indicates that from 10,000 year BP to 6000 BP, the rate of sea level rise averaged about 10 mm/yr. The rate slowed at the end of this period flooding the shallow shelves surrounding the reef platforms of the western Atlantic. The relative flat South Florida shelf, because of its slight tilt to the southwest is an ideal local to assess the effects of this flooding. From 6000 BP to the present, numerous banks were formed within Florida Bay. A morphological model of bank formation based on the sea level oscillations was constructed from analysis of over 120 cores. These cores record sedimentological changes which are correlated to climatic events. In the central bay, the sediment accumulation was controlled by variations in rate of progressive sea-level rise. The Key West sea-level record shows that sea level has been rising incrementally over the last century. Between 1931 and 1950, sea level rose at a rate of 5 mm/yr. After 1950, it remained stable until 1971, when it again began to rise, but at a rate of 3 mm/yr. On the leeward side of mud banks, these variations resulted in shifts in sediment- accumulation rates, with accretion increasing during rising sea level and decreasing during stable periods. Between late 1970 and early 1972, a sharp jump in sea-level rise occurred that was approximately 10 cm higher than the preceding period. This jump coincided with a strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a la Niña (negative ENSO), and a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Water driven northward into Florida Bay eroded banks along the northern coastline, increased sediment accumulation in the northern lakes, and increased accretion rates on the banks. In addition to the sedimentological variations in the central portion of the bay, there was significant changes along the northern fringe. Around 1950, the northern fringe of the bay morphed from a fresh water environment to a marine environment. As a result, carbonate production

  12. Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Semenov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The shrinking Arctic sea ice cover observed during the last decades is probably the clearest manifestation of ongoing climate change. While climate models in general reproduce the sea ice retreat in the Arctic during the 20th century and simulate further sea ice area loss during the 21st century in response to anthropogenic forcing, the models suffer from large biases and the results exhibit considerable spread. Here, we compare results from the two last generations of climate models, CMIP3 and CMIP5, with respect to total and regional Arctic sea ice change. Different characteristics of sea ice area (SIA in March and September have been analysed for the Entire Arctic, Central Arctic and Barents Sea. Further, the sensitivity of SIA to changes in Northern Hemisphere (NH temperature is investigated and dynamical links between SIA and some atmospheric variability modes are assessed.CMIP3 (SRES A1B and CMIP5 (RCP8.5 models not only simulate a coherent decline of the Arctic SIA but also depict consistent changes in the SIA seasonal cycle. The spatial patterns of SIC variability improve in CMIP5 ensemble, most noticeably in summer when compared to HadISST1 data. A better simulation of summer SIA in the Entire Arctic by CMIP5 models is accompanied by a slightly increased bias for winter season in comparison to CMIP3 ensemble. SIA in the Barents Sea is strongly overestimated by the majority of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models, and projected SIA changes are characterized by a high uncertainty. Both CMIP ensembles depict a significant link between the SIA and NH temperature changes indicating that a part of inter-ensemble SIA spread comes from different temperature sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing. The results suggest that, in general, a sensitivity of SIA to external forcing is enhanced in CMIP5 models. Arctic SIA interannual variability in the end of the 20th century is on average well simulated by both ensembles. To the end of the 21st century, September

  13. Barrier response to Holocene sea-level rise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pejrup, Morten; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

    Normally it is believed that sea-level rise causes coastal barrier retreat. However, sea-level is only one of the parameters determining the long term coastal development of barrier coasts. Sediment supply is an equally important determinant and may overshadow the effects of sea-level rise....... Conceptually this has been known for a long time but for the first time we can show the relative effect of these two parameters. We have studied three neighboring barrier islands in the Wadden Sea, and described their 3D morphological evolution during the last 8000 years. It appears that the barrier islands...... a much stronger component of sea-level control. The distance between the islands is only 50 km, and therefore our study shows that prediction of barrier development during a period of rising sea level may be more complicated than formerly believed....

  14. Sea level and shoreline reconstructions for the Red Sea: isostatic and tectonic considerations and implications for hominin migration out of Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambeck, Kurt; Purcell, Anthony; Flemming, Nicholas. C.; Vita-Finzi, Claudio; Alsharekh, Abdullah M.; Bailey, Geoffrey N.

    2011-12-01

    observational evidence is consistent with tectonic and isostatic processes both operating over the past 300,000 years without requiring changes in the time averaged (over a few thousand years) tectonic rates. (v) Recent bathymetric data for the Bab al Mandab region have been compiled to confirm the location and depth of the sill controlling flow in and out of the Red Sea. Throughout the last 400,000 years the Red Sea has remained open to the Gulf of Aden with cross sectional areas at times of glacial maxima about 2% of that today. (vi) The minimum channel widths connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden at times of lowstand occur south of the Hanish Sill. The channels are less than 4 km wide and remain narrow for as long as local sea levels are below -50 m. This occurs for a number of sustained periods during the last two glacial cycles and earlier. (vii) Periods suitable for crossing between Africa and Arabia without requiring seaworthy boats or seafaring skills occurred periodically throughout the Pleistocene, particularly at times of favourable environmental climatic conditions that occurred during times of sea level lowstand.

  15. Impacts of Climate Modes on Air–Sea Heat Exchange in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Abualnaja, Yasser

    2015-04-01

    The impacts of various climate modes on the Red Sea surface heat exchange are investigated using the MERRA reanalysis and the OAFlux satellite reanalysis datasets. Seasonality in the atmospheric forcing is also explored. Mode impacts peak during boreal winter [December–February (DJF)] with average anomalies of 12–18 W m−2 to be found in the northern Red Sea. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic–west Russia (EAWR) pattern, and the Indian monsoon index (IMI) exhibit the strongest influence on the air–sea heat exchange during the winter. In this season, the largest negative anomalies of about −30 W m−2 are associated with the EAWR pattern over the central part of the Red Sea. In other seasons, mode-related anomalies are considerably lower, especially during spring when the mode impacts are negligible. The mode impacts are strongest over the northern half of the Red Sea during winter and autumn. In summer, the southern half of the basin is strongly influenced by the multivariate ENSO index (MEI). The winter mode–related anomalies are determined mostly by the latent heat flux component, while in summer the shortwave flux is also important. The influence of the modes on the Red Sea is found to be generally weaker than on the neighboring Mediterranean basin.

  16. Arctic Storms and Their Influence on Surface Climate in the Chukchi-Beaufort Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y.; Zhang, X.; Rinke, A.; Zhang, J.

    2017-12-01

    Increases in the frequency and intensity of Arctic storms and resulting weather hazards may endanger the offshore environment, coastal community, and energy infrastructure in the Arctic as sea ice retreats. Advancing ability to identify fine-scale variations in surface climate produced by progressively stronger storm would be extremely helpful to resources management and sustainable development for coastal community. In this study, we analyzed the storms and their impacts on surface climate over the Beaufort-Chukchi seas by employing the date sets from both the hindcast simulations of the coupled Arctic regional climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM and the recently developed Chukchi-Beaufort High-resolution Atmospheric Reanalysis (CBHAR). Based on the characteristics of spatial pattern and temporal variability of the Arctic storm activity, we categorized storms to three groups with their different origins: the East Siberia Sea, Alaska and the central Arctic Ocean. The storms originating from the central Arctic Ocean have the strongest intensity in winter with relatively less storm number. Storms traveling from Alaska to the Beaufort Sea most frequently occurred in autumn with weaker intensity. A large portion of storms originated from the East Siberia Sea region in summer. Further statistical analysis suggests that increase in surface air temperature and wind speed could be attributed to the increased frequency of storm occurrence in autumn (September to November) along the continental shelf in the Beaufort Sea.

  17. Climate change and ice hazards in the Beaufort Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barber, D. G.; McCullough, G.; Babb, D.

    2014-01-01

    Recent reductions in the summer extent of sea ice have focused the world’s attention on the effects of climate change. Increased CO2-derived global warming is rapidly shrinking the Arctic multi-year ice pack. This shift in ice regimes allows for increasing development opportunities for large oil...... will be a much more complex task than modeling average ice circulation. Given the observed reduction in sea ice extent and thickness this rather counterintuitive situation, associated with a warming climate, poses significant hazards to Arctic marine oil and gas development and marine transportation. Accurate...... forecasting of hazardous ice motion will require improved real-time surface wind and ocean current forecast models capable of ingesting local satellite-derived wind data and/or local, closely-spaced networks of anemometers and improved methods of determining high-frequency components of surface ocean current...

  18. SEA screening of voluntary climate change plans: A story of non-compliant discretion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kørnøv, Lone; Wejs, Anja

    2013-01-01

    Screening within Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is the first critical stage involving considerations on whether an assessment is carried out or not. Although legislation and guidance offer practitioners a legal and logical approach to the screening process, it is inevitable that discretionary judgement takes place and will impact on the screening decision. This article examines the results of discretion involved in screening of climate change plans (CCPs) in a Danish context. These years voluntary CCPs are developed as a response to the global and local emergence of both mitigation and adaptation, and the voluntary commitment by the local authorities is an indication of an emerging norm of climate change as an important issue. This article takes its point of departure in the observation that SEA is not undertaken for these voluntary CCPs. The critical analysis of this phenomenon rests upon a documentary study of Danish CCPs, interviews with a lawyer and ministerial key person and informal discussions between researchers, practitioners and lawyers on whether climate change plans are covered by SEA legislation and underlying reasons for the present practice. Based on a critical analysis of mandatory SEA and/or obligation to screen CCPs according to significance criteria, the authors find that 18 out of the 48 CCPs are mandatory to SEA and 9 would require a screening of significance and thereby potentially be followed by a SEA. In practice only one plan was screened and one was environmentally assessed. The legal, democratic and environmental consequences of this SEA practice are critically discussed. Hereunder is the missed opportunity to use the broad environmental scope of SEA to avoid a narrow focus on energy and CO 2 in CCPs, and the question whether this practice in Denmark complies with the EU Directive. -- Highlights: ► It is inevitable that discretionary judgement takes place and will impact on the screening decision. ► The article hereby calls

  19. SEA screening of voluntary climate change plans: A story of non-compliant discretion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kørnøv, Lone, E-mail: lonek@plan.aau.dk; Wejs, Anja

    2013-07-15

    Screening within Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is the first critical stage involving considerations on whether an assessment is carried out or not. Although legislation and guidance offer practitioners a legal and logical approach to the screening process, it is inevitable that discretionary judgement takes place and will impact on the screening decision. This article examines the results of discretion involved in screening of climate change plans (CCPs) in a Danish context. These years voluntary CCPs are developed as a response to the global and local emergence of both mitigation and adaptation, and the voluntary commitment by the local authorities is an indication of an emerging norm of climate change as an important issue. This article takes its point of departure in the observation that SEA is not undertaken for these voluntary CCPs. The critical analysis of this phenomenon rests upon a documentary study of Danish CCPs, interviews with a lawyer and ministerial key person and informal discussions between researchers, practitioners and lawyers on whether climate change plans are covered by SEA legislation and underlying reasons for the present practice. Based on a critical analysis of mandatory SEA and/or obligation to screen CCPs according to significance criteria, the authors find that 18 out of the 48 CCPs are mandatory to SEA and 9 would require a screening of significance and thereby potentially be followed by a SEA. In practice only one plan was screened and one was environmentally assessed. The legal, democratic and environmental consequences of this SEA practice are critically discussed. Hereunder is the missed opportunity to use the broad environmental scope of SEA to avoid a narrow focus on energy and CO{sub 2} in CCPs, and the question whether this practice in Denmark complies with the EU Directive. -- Highlights: ► It is inevitable that discretionary judgement takes place and will impact on the screening decision. ► The article hereby

  20. Fisheries management responses to climate change in the Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, Thomas Talund; Hoff, Ayoe; Frost, Hans S.

    2015-01-01

    plan may be needed. Therefore, this paper investigates the economic impacts of managing the cod, sprat and herring stocks in the eastern Baltic Sea, given on-going climate change, which is known to affect cod recruitment negatively. It is shown that climate change may have severe biological...... scenarios in which the economic consequences of different management objectives for the fishing fleets are assessed through a dynamic multi-species and multi-fleet bio-economic assessment model that include both species interactions and climate change....

  1. Assessment on vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea level rise in the Yangtze Estuary, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, L.; Ge, Z.; Zhang, L.

    2013-12-01

    The Yangtze Delta in China is vital economic hubs in terms of settlement, industry, agriculture, trade and tourism as well as of great environmental significance. In recent decades, the prospect of climate change, in particular sea level rise and its effects on low lying coastal areas have generated worldwide attention to coastal ecosystems. Coastal wetlands, as important parts of coastal ecosystem, are particularly sensitive to sea level rise. To study the responses of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisites for securing the coastal zone ecosystems. In this study, taking the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary as a case study, the potential impacts of sea-level rise to coastal wetlands habitat were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model. The key indicators, such as the sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, elevation, daily inundation duration of habitat and sedimentation rate, were selected to build a vulnerability assessment system according to the IPCC definition of vulnerability, i.e. the aspects of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation. A quantitatively spatial assessment method on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. The vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the sea level rise rate of the present trend and IPCC A1F1 scenario were performed for three sets of projections of short-term (2030s), mid-term (2050s) and long-term (2100s). The results showed that at the present trend of sea level rise rate of 0.26 cm/a, 92.3 % of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary was in the EVI score of 0 in 2030s, i.e. the impact of sea level rise on habitats/species of coastal wetlands was negligible. While 7.4 % and 0.3 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of

  2. Evidence from the Seychelles of Last Interglacial Sea Level Oscillations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyverberg, K.; Dutton, A.; Dechnik, B.; Webster, J.; Zwartz, D.

    2014-12-01

    Several studies indicate that sea level oscillated during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, but the details of these scenarios, including the number of sea level oscillations, are still debated. We lack a detailed understanding of the sensitivity of the large polar ice sheets to changes in temperature that could result in eustatic sea level oscillations. Because the Seychelles are located far from the margins of the Last Glacial Maximum northern hemisphere ice sheets, they have not been subjected to glacial isostatic adjustment, and have been tectonically stable since the Last Interglacial period; therefore, they provide a robust record of eustatic sea level during MIS 5e. All of the outcrops we examined contain unconformities and/or sharp transitions between facies, though the nature of these boundaries varies between sites. In some outcrops we observed a hardground comprising fine-grained, mollusc-rich sediment layer between distinct generations of in situ coralgal framework. In one outcrop, this succession was observed twice, where two generations of reef growth were each capped by a strongly indurated fine-grained, mollusc-rich sediment layer. At the site with the greatest vertical extent of outcrop, there is a marked difference in the taxonomic composition of the coral community above and below an unconformable surface, but the indurated fine-grained, sediment layer observed elsewhere was absent. Most of the other outcrops we studied contained a common succession of facies from in situ reef units overlain by cemented coral rubble. In two dated outcrops, the age of corals above and below the rubble layer are the same age. The hardgrounds and rubble layers may represent ephemeral exposure of the reef units during two drops in sea level. The inference of multiple meter-scale oscillations during the MIS 5e highstand indicates a more dynamic cryosphere than the present interglacial, although the climatic threshold for more volatile polar ice sheets is not yet clear.

  3. Bayesian Statistical Analysis of Historical and Late Holocene Rates of Sea-Level Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Niamh; Parnell, Andrew; Kemp, Andrew; Horton, Benjamin

    2014-05-01

    A fundamental concern associated with climate change is the rate at which sea levels are rising. Studies of past sea level (particularly beyond the instrumental data range) allow modern sea-level rise to be placed in a more complete context. Considering this, we perform a Bayesian statistical analysis on historical and late Holocene rates of sea-level change. The data that form the input to the statistical model are tide-gauge measurements and proxy reconstructions from cores of coastal sediment. The aims are to estimate rates of sea-level rise, to determine when modern rates of sea-level rise began and to observe how these rates have been changing over time. Many of the current methods for doing this use simple linear regression to estimate rates. This is often inappropriate as it is too rigid and it can ignore uncertainties that arise as part of the data collection exercise. This can lead to over confidence in the sea-level trends being characterized. The proposed Bayesian model places a Gaussian process prior on the rate process (i.e. the process that determines how rates of sea-level are changing over time). The likelihood of the observed data is the integral of this process. When dealing with proxy reconstructions, this is set in an errors-in-variables framework so as to take account of age uncertainty. It is also necessary, in this case, for the model to account for glacio-isostatic adjustment, which introduces a covariance between individual age and sea-level observations. This method provides a flexible fit and it allows for the direct estimation of the rate process with full consideration of all sources of uncertainty. Analysis of tide-gauge datasets and proxy reconstructions in this way means that changing rates of sea level can be estimated more comprehensively and accurately than previously possible. The model captures the continuous and dynamic evolution of sea-level change and results show that not only are modern sea levels rising but that the rates

  4. The Caribbean conundrum of Holocene sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Luke; Mound, Jon

    2014-05-01

    In the tropics, pre-historic sea-level curve reconstruction is often problematic because it relies upon sea-level indicators whose vertical relationship to the sea surface is poorly constrained. In the Caribbean, fossil corals, mangrove peats and shell material dominate the pre-historic indicator record. The common approach to reconstruction involves the use of modern analogues to these indicators to establish a fixed vertical habitable range. The aim of these reconstructions is to find spatial variability in the Holocene sea level in an area gradually subsiding (different depths. We use the first catalogue to calibrate 14C ages to give a probabilistic age range for each indicator. We use the second catalogue to define a depth probability distribution function (pdf) for mangroves and each coral species. The Holocene indicators are grouped into 12 sub-regions around the Caribbean. For each sub-region we apply our sea-level reconstruction, which involves stepping a fixed-length time window through time and calculating the position (and rate) of sea-level (change) using a thousand realisations of the time/depth pdfs to define an envelope of probable solutions. We find that the sub-regional relative sea-level curves display spatio-temporal variability including a south-east to north-west 1500 year lag in the arrival of Holocene sea level to that of the present day. We demonstrate that these variations are primarily due to glacial-isostatic-adjustment induced sea-level change and that sub-regional variations (where sufficient data exists) are due to local uplift variability.

  5. Geoethics: IPCC disgraced by violation of observational facts and physical laws in their sea level scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mörner, Nils-Axel

    2014-05-01

    Sea level may rise due to glacier melting, heat expansion of the oceanic water column, and redistribution of the waster masses - all these factors can be handled as to rates and amplitudes (provided one knows what one is talking about). In key areas over the entire Indian Ocean and in many Pacific Islands there are no traces of and sea level rise over the last 40-50 years. This is also the case for test-areas like Venice and the North Sea coasts. In the Kattegatt Sea one can fix the sea level factor to a maximum rise of 1.0-0.9 mm/year over the last century. The 204 tide gauges selected by NOAA for their global sea level monitoring provide a strong and sharp maximum (of 182 sites) in the range of 0.0-2.0 mm/yr. Satellite altimetry is said to give a rise of 3.2 mm/yr; this, however, is a value achieved after a quite subjective and surely erroneous "correction". The IPCC is talking about exceptionally much higher rates, and even worse are some "boy scouts" desperate try to launce real horror ratios. Physical laws set the frames of the rate and amount of ice melting, and so do records of events in the past (i.e. the geological records). During the Last Ice Age so much ice was accumulated on land, that the sea level dropped by about 120 m. When the process was reversed and ice melted under exceptionally strong climate forcing, sea level rose at a maximum rate of about 10 mm/yr (a meter per century). This can never happen under today's climate conditions. Even with IPCC's hypothetical scenarios, the true sea rise must be far less. When people like Rahmstorf (claiming 1 m or more by 2100) and Hansen (claiming a 4 m rise from 2080 to 2100) give their values, they exceed what is possible according to physical laws and accumulated geological knowledge. The expansion of the oceanic water column may reach amounts of sea level rise in the order of a few centimetres, at the most a decimetre. Old temperature measurements may record a temperature rise over the last 50 years in

  6. Predicting the retreat and migration of tidal forests along the northern Gulf of Mexico under sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, T.W.; Krauss, K.W.; Conner, W.H.; From, A.S.

    2010-01-01

    Tidal freshwater forests in coastal regions of the southeastern United States are undergoing dieback and retreat from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. In many areas, tidal saltwater forests (mangroves) contrastingly are expanding landward in subtropical coastal reaches succeeding freshwater marsh and forest zones. Hydrological characteristics of these low-relief coastal forests in intertidal settings are dictated by the influence of tidal and freshwater forcing. In this paper, we describe the application of the Sea Level Over Proportional Elevation (SLOPE) model to predict coastal forest retreat and migration from projected sea-level rise based on a proxy relationship of saltmarsh/mangrove area and tidal range. The SLOPE model assumes that the sum area of saltmarsh/mangrove habitat along any given coastal reach is determined by the slope of the landform and vertical tide forcing. Model results indicated that saltmarsh and mangrove migration from sea-level rise will vary by county and watershed but greater in western Gulf States than in the eastern Gulf States where millions of hectares of coastal forest will be displaced over the next century with a near meter rise in relative sea level alone. Substantial losses of coastal forests will also occur in the eastern Gulf but mangrove forests in subtropical zones of Florida are expected to replace retreating freshwater forest and affect regional biodiversity. Accelerated global eustacy from climate change will compound the degree of predicted retreat and migration of coastal forests with expected implications for ecosystem management of State and Federal lands in the absence of adaptive coastal management.

  7. Influences of sediment redistribution on sea-level changes along the U.S. Atlantic margin since the mid-Pliocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Q.; Ferrier, K.; Austermann, J.; Mitrovica, J. X.

    2017-12-01

    The Orangeburg Scarp is a paleo-shoreline formed along the southeastern U.S. Atlantic coast during the mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; 3.3 - 2.9 Ma). The MPWP is a time of interest because it is often cited as an analog for modern climate and thus an important target for understanding sea-level responses to climate change. The present Orangeburg Scarp exhibits 40-meter variations in elevation along its length, implying that it has been warped since its formation, which complicates efforts to infer global ice volume at the MPWP. Previous studies have shown that the effects of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and dynamic topography (DT) on sea level can explain a significant fraction of the observed variability in elevation along the Orangeburg Scarp. Here we build on these studies by using a gravitationally self-consistent ice age sea-level model to compute the effects of sediment loading and unloading on paleo-shoreline elevation since the mid-Pliocene. To constrain the sediment loading history in this region, we present a new compilation of erosion and deposition rates along the U.S. Atlantic margin, from which we generate a range of sediment redistribution scenarios since the MPWP. We simultaneously drive the sea-level model with these sediment redistribution histories and existing ice and dynamic topography histories. Our results show that sediment loading and unloading is capable of warping the elevation of this paleo-shoreline by 20 meters since its formation, similar in magnitude to the contributions from GIA and DT over the same time period. These results demonstrate that sediment redistribution can induce significant perturbations in sea-level markers from the MPWP, and thus accounting for its influence will improve reconstructions of sea level and global ice volume during the MPWP and perhaps other periods of relative ice age warmth.

  8. Kiel Canal: Past and future threats for shipping resulting from precipitation, wind surge and sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganske, Anette; Hüttl-Kabus, Sabine; Möller, Jens; Schade, Nils; Heinrich, Hartmut; Tinz, Birger

    2017-04-01

    The Kiel Canal is the most frequented artificial waterway in the world. It connects the North Sea and the Hamburg Harbor with the Baltic Sea and has a length of about 100 km. The Canal receives its water from the upper catchment of the river Eider. Discharge from the Canal towards the North Sea is via the sluices at Brunsbüttel (90%) into river Elbe and into the Baltic Sea via the sluices at Kiel-Holtenau. A risk of closure of the Canal occurs when high precipitation in the catchment meets high water levels in the river Elbe and/or the Baltic preventing the discharge of excess Canal water. Future sea level rise jointly with other effects such as possibly increasing wind surge and precipitation will close the gap between the inner and outer water levels, so that someday the outside levels will surmount the inner one. The German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) tasked its internal Network of Experts to run a case study on the evolution of critical water levels in order to estimate risks and vulnerabilities for adaptation measures. First step of the investigation is a search for factors or combination of factors responsible for closures in the past. Candidates are factors such as higher water levels at low tides, high precipitation events on land, soil moisture and human factors like preventive water management measures. Second step will be the search for the natural criteria in climate projections. Here we report on the results of the first step of the case study with a focus on the exit towards the North Sea. There, discharge is possible only during low tide. Presently still sufficient difference in height exists between the levels in the Canal and the river Elbe allowing for a free flow of excess Canal water. Shipping is ceased when levels in the Canal surpass safety limits due to high precipitation events in the catchment jointly with high outer water levels. We used atmospheric data from ERA-Interim reanalysis instead of gauge data

  9. The contribution to future flood risk in the Severn Estuary from extreme sea level rise due to ice sheet mass loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.

    2013-12-01

    The rate at which sea levels will rise in the coming century is of great interest to decision makers tasked with developing mitigation policies to cope with the risk of coastal inundation. Accurate estimates of future sea levels are vital in the provision of effective policy. Recent reports from UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggest that mean sea levels in the UK may rise by as much as 80 cm by 2100; however, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds model predictions, particularly the contribution from ice sheets responding to climatic warming. For this reason, the application of semi-empirical modelling approaches for sea level rise predictions has increased of late, the results from which suggest that the rate of sea level rise may be greater than previously thought, exceeding 1 m by 2100. Furthermore, studies in the Red Sea indicate that rapid sea level rise beyond 1m per century has occurred in the past. In light of such research, the latest UKCIP assessment has included a H++ scenario for sea level rise in the UK of up to 1.9 m which is defined as improbable but, crucially, physically plausible. The significance of such low-probability sea level rise scenarios upon the estimation of future flood risk is assessed using the Somerset levels (UK) as a case study. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100 which are added to a current 1:200 year event water level to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation. From the resulting ensemble predictions an estimation of risk by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (27%) increase to the projected annual risk. Furthermore, current defence construction guidelines for the coming century in the UK are expected to account for 95% of the sea level rise distribution

  10. Contribution of glacier melt to sea-level rise since AD 1865: a regionally differentiated calculation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuo, Z.; Oerlemans, J.

    1997-01-01

    The contribution of glacier melt, including the Greenland ice-sheet, to sea-level change since AD 1865 is estimated on the basis of modelled sensitivity of glacier mass balance to climate change and historical temperature data. Calculations are done in a regionally differentiated manner to overcome

  11. Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    2014-01-01

    Polar sea ice is a key element of the climate system and has now been monitored through satellite observations for over three and a half decades. The satellite observations reveal considerable information about polar ice and its changes since the late 1970s, including a prominent downward trend in Arctic sea ice coverage and a much lesser upward trend in Antarctic sea ice coverage, illustrative of the important fact that climate change entails spatial contrasts. The decreasing ice coverage in the Arctic corresponds well with contemporaneous Arctic warming and exhibits particularly large decreases in the summers of 2007 and 2012, influenced by both preconditioning and atmospheric conditions. The increasing ice coverage in the Antarctic is not as readily explained, but spatial differences in the Antarctic trends suggest a possible connection with atmospheric circulation changes that have perhaps been influenced by the Antarctic ozone hole. The changes in the polar ice covers and the issues surrounding those changes have many commonalities with broader climate changes and their surrounding issues, allowing the sea ice changes to be viewed in some important ways as a microcosm of global climate change.

  12. A Climate Change Adaptation Planning Process for Low-Lying, Communities Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristi Tatebe

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available While the province of British Columbia (BC, Canada, provides guidelines for flood risk management, it is local governments’ responsibility to delineate their own flood vulnerability, assess their risk, and integrate these with planning policies to implement adaptive action. However, barriers such as the lack of locally specific data and public perceptions about adaptation options mean that local governments must address the need for adaptation planning within a context of scientific uncertainty, while building public support for difficult choices on flood-related climate policy and action. This research demonstrates a process to model, visualize and evaluate potential flood impacts and adaptation options for the community of Delta, in Metro Vancouver, across economic, social and environmental perspectives. Visualizations in 2D and 3D, based on hydrological modeling of breach events for existing dike infrastructure, future sea level rise and storm surges, are generated collaboratively, together with future adaptation scenarios assessed against quantitative and qualitative indicators. This ‘visioning package’ is being used with staff and a citizens’ Working Group to assess the performance, policy implications and social acceptability of the adaptation strategies. Recommendations based on the experience of the initiative are provided that can facilitate sustainable future adaptation actions and decision-making in Delta and other jurisdictions.

  13. Extreme sea-levels, coastal risks and climate changes: lost in translation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marone, Eduardo; Castro Carneiro, Juliane; Cintra, Márcio; Ribeiro, Andréa; Cardoso, Denis; Stellfeld, Carol

    2014-05-01

    Occurring commonly in Brazilian coastal (and continental) areas, floods are probably the most devastating natural hazards our local society faces nowadays. With the expected sea-level rise and tropical storms becoming stronger and more frequents, the scenarios of local impacts of sea-level rise and storm surges; causing loss of lives, environmental damages and socio-economic stress; need to be addressed and properly communicated. We present results related to the sea-level setups accordingly to IPCC's scenarios and the expected coastal floods in the Paraná State, Southern Brazil. The outcomes are displayed in scientific language accompanied by "translations" with the objective of showing the need of a different language approach to communicate with the players affected by coastal hazards. To create the "translation" of the "scientific" text we used the Up-Goer Five Text Editor, which allows writing texts using only the ten hundred most used English words. We allowed ourselves to use a maximum of five other words per box not present at this dictionary, not considering geographical names or units in the count, provided there were simple. That was necessary because words as sea, beach, sand, storm, etc., are not among the one thousand present at the Up-Goer, and they are simple enough anyhow. On the other hand, the not scientific public we targeted speaks Portuguese, not English, and we do not have an Up-Goer tool for that language. Anyhow, each Box was also produced in Portuguese, as much simple as possible, to disseminate our results to the local community. To illustrate the need of "translation", it is worthy to mention a real case of a troublesome misunderstanding caused by us, scientists, in our coastal society. Some years ago, one of our colleagues at the university, a much-respected scientist, informed through a press release that, on a given day, "we will experience the highest astronomical tide of the century". That statement (scientifically true and

  14. Translating Uncertain Sea Level Projections Into Infrastructure Impacts Using a Bayesian Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moftakhari, Hamed; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F.; Matthew, Richard A.; Mazdiyasni, Omid

    2017-12-01

    Climate change may affect ocean-driven coastal flooding regimes by both raising the mean sea level (msl) and altering ocean-atmosphere interactions. For reliable projections of coastal flood risk, information provided by different climate models must be considered in addition to associated uncertainties. In this paper, we propose a framework to project future coastal water levels and quantify the resulting flooding hazard to infrastructure. We use Bayesian Model Averaging to generate a weighted ensemble of storm surge predictions from eight climate models for two coastal counties in California. The resulting ensembles combined with msl projections, and predicted astronomical tides are then used to quantify changes in the likelihood of road flooding under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the near-future (1998-2063) and mid-future (2018-2083). The results show that road flooding rates will be significantly higher in the near-future and mid-future compared to the recent past (1950-2015) if adaptation measures are not implemented.

  15. Tidal extension and sea-level rise: recommendations for a research agenda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ensign, Scott H.; Noe, Gregory

    2018-01-01

    Sea-level rise is pushing freshwater tides upstream into formerly non-tidal rivers. This tidal extension may increase the area of tidal freshwater ecosystems and offset loss of ecosystem functions due to salinization downstream. Without considering how gains in ecosystem functions could offset losses, landscape-scale assessments of ecosystem functions may be biased toward worst-case scenarios of loss. To stimulate research on this concept, we address three fundamental questions about tidal extension: Where will tidal extension be most evident, and can we measure it? What ecosystem functions are influenced by tidal extension, and how can we measure them? How do watershed processes, climate change, and tidal extension interact to affect ecosystem functions? Our preliminary answers lead to recommendations that will advance tidal extension research, enable better predictions of the impacts of sea-level rise, and help balance the landscape-scale benefits of ecosystem function with costs of response.

  16. A Mid-Holocene Relative Sea-Level Stack, New Jersey, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, B.; Walker, J. S.; Kemp, A.; Shaw, T. J.; Kopp, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    Most high resolution (decimeter- and decadal-scale) relative sea-level (RSL) records using salt-marsh microfossils as a proxy only extend through the Common Era, limiting our understanding of driving mechanisms of RSL change and how sea-level is influenced by changing climate. Records beyond the Common Era are limited by the depth of continuous sequences of salt-marsh peat suitable for high resolution reconstructions, as well as contamination by local processes such as sediment compaction. In contrast, sequences of basal peats have produced compaction-free RSL records through the Holocene, but at a low resolution (meter- and centennial-scale). We devise a new Multi-Proxy Presence/Absence Method (MP2AM) to develop a mid-Holocene RSL stack. We stack a series of 1 m basal peat cores that overlap along a uniform elevational gradient above an incompressible basal sand. We analyzed three sea-level indicators from 14 cores: foraminifera, testate amoebae, and stable carbon isotope geochemistry. To reconstruct RSL, this multi-proxy approach uses the timesaving presence/absence of forams and testates to determine the elevation of the highest occurrence of forams and the lowest occurrence of testates in each basal core. We use stable carbon isotope geochemistry to determine the C3/C4 vegetation boundary in each core. We develop age-depth models for each core using a series of radiocarbon dates. The RSL records from each 1 m basal core are combined to create a stack or, in effect, one long core of salt-marsh material. This method removes the issue of compaction to create a continuous RSL record to address temporal changes and periods of climate and sea-level variability. We reconstruct a southern NJ mid-Holocene RSL record from Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, where Kemp et al. (2013) completed a 2500 yr RSL record using a foraminifera-based transfer function approach. Preliminary radiocarbon dates suggest the basal sequence is at least 4246-4408 cal yrs BP

  17. Impact of 21st century climate change on the Baltic Sea fish community and fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MacKenzie, Brian; Gislason, Henrik; Möllmann, C.

    2007-01-01

    reviewed. We then use recent regional - scale climate - ocean modelling results to consider how climate change during this century will affect the fish community of the Baltic and fisheries management. Expected climate changes in northern Europe will likely affect both the temperature and salinity...... some of the uncertainties and complexities associated with forecasting how fish populations, communities and industries dependent on an estuarine ecosystem might respond to future climate change.......The Baltic Sea is a large brackish semienclosed sea whose species-poor fish community supports important commercial and recreational fisheries. Both the fish species and the fisheries are strongly affected by climate variations. These climatic effects and the underlying mechanisms are briefly...

  18. Response of air-sea carbon fluxes and climate to orbital forcing changes in the Community Climate System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jochum, M.; Peacock, S.; Moore, K.; Lindsay, K.

    2010-07-01

    A global general circulation model coupled to an ocean ecosystem model is used to quantify the response of carbon fluxes and climate to changes in orbital forcing. Compared to the present-day simulation, the simulation with the Earth's orbital parameters from 115,000 years ago features significantly cooler northern high latitudes but only moderately cooler southern high latitudes. This asymmetry is explained by a 30% reduction of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that is caused by an increased Arctic sea ice export and a resulting freshening of the North Atlantic. The strong northern high-latitude cooling and the direct insolation induced tropical warming lead to global shifts in precipitation and winds to the order of 10%-20%. These climate shifts lead to regional differences in air-sea carbon fluxes of the same order. However, the differences in global net air-sea carbon fluxes are small, which is due to several effects, two of which stand out: first, colder sea surface temperature leads to a more effective solubility pump but also to increased sea ice concentration which blocks air-sea exchange, and second, the weakening of Southern Ocean winds that is predicted by some idealized studies occurs only in part of the basin, and is compensated by stronger winds in other parts.

  19. QUANTIFYING REGIONAL SEA LEVEL RISE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diandong Ren

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study projects the sea level contribution from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS through to 2100, using a recently developed ice dynamics model forced by atmospheric parameters derived from three different climate models (CGCMs. The geographical pattern of the near-surface ice warming imposes a divergent flow field favoring mass loss through enhanced ice flow. The calculated average mass loss rate during the latter half of the 21st century is ~0.64±0.06 mm/year eustatic sea level rise, which is significantly larger than the IPCC AR4 estimate from surface mass balance. The difference is due largely to the positive feedbacks from reduced ice viscosity and the basal sliding mechanism present in the ice dynamics model. This inter-model, inter-scenario spread adds approximately a 20% uncertainty to the IPCC ice model estimates. The sea level rise is geographically non-uniform and reaches 1.69±0.24 mm/year by 2100 for the northeast coastal region of the United States, amplified by the expected weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC. In contrast to previous estimates, which neglected the GrIS fresh water input, both sides of the North Atlantic Gyre are projected to experience sea level rises. The impacts on a selection of major cities on both sides of the Atlantic and in the Pacific and southern oceans also are assessed. The other ocean basins are found to be less affected than the Atlantic Ocean.

  20. Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esselborn, Saskia; Rudenko, Sergei; Schöne, Tilo

    2018-03-01

    Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year), and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS), and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability) with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr-1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability) and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr-1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test orbits calculated at GFZ, the sources of the

  1. Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Esselborn

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year, and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ, the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS, and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC. The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr−1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr−1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test

  2. Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. L. Edwards

    2014-01-01

    Régional: Fettweis, 2007 climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB–elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9% at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0% at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs for sea level contributions are larger than the "no feedback" case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

  3. A 500 kyr record of global sea-level oscillations in the Gulf of Lion, Mediterranean Sea: new insights into MIS 3 sea-level variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Frigola

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Borehole PRGL1-4 drilled in the upper slope of the Gulf of Lion provides an exceptional record to investigate the impact of late Pleistocene orbitally-driven glacio-eustatic sea-level oscillations on the sedimentary outbuilding of a river fed continental margin. High-resolution grain-size and geochemical records supported by oxygen isotope chronostratigraphy allow reinterpreting the last 500 ka upper slope seismostratigraphy of the Gulf of Lion. Five main sequences, stacked during the sea-level lowering phases of the last five glacial-interglacial 100-kyr cycles, form the upper stratigraphic outbuilding of the continental margin. The high sensitivity of the grain-size record down the borehole to sea-level oscillations can be explained by the great width of the Gulf of Lion continental shelf. Sea level driven changes in accommodation space over the shelf cyclically modified the depositional mode of the entire margin. PRGL1-4 data also illustrate the imprint of sea-level oscillations at millennial time-scale, as shown for Marine Isotopic Stage 3, and provide unambiguous evidence of relative high sea-levels at the onset of each Dansgaard-Oeschger Greenland warm interstadial. The PRGL1-4 grain-size record represents the first evidence for a one-to-one coupling of millennial time-scale sea-level oscillations associated with each Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle.

  4. Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.; O'Regan, Matt; Pearce, Christof; Gemery, Laura; Toomey, Michael; Semiletov, Igor; Jakobsson, Martin

    2017-09-01

    Deglacial (12.8-10.7 ka) sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1) and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1), and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1). Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM; ˜ 24 kiloannum or ka) minimum sea level of ˜ 125-130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.). Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1) followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal) period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ˜ 400 cm of core depth) is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42-47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

  5. Covariance among North Sea nutrient and climate drivers: consequences for plankton dynamics.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McQuatters-Gollop, A.; Vermaat, J.E.

    2011-01-01

    Regime shift and principal component analysis of a spatially disaggregated database capturing time-series of climatic, nutrient and plankton variables in the North Sea revealed considerable covariance between groups of ecosystem indicators. Plankton and climate time-series span the period 1958-2003,

  6. Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauss, Benjamin H; Kulp, Scott; Levermann, Anders

    2015-11-03

    Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3-9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185-1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon.

  7. Is sea-level rising?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    correction in the estimation of trends obtained for tide gauge records. The altimeter data permits to prepare spatial maps of sea-level rise trends. We present a map prepared for the Indian Ocean (Figure 4) north of 10oS , which shows a fairly uniform... drawn information from research papers published by the author and report of the IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 13: Sea Level Changes, in which the author has served as a ‘Lead Author’. Figure1 is prepared using data from the University of Colorado. Nerem, R...

  8. Remote coral reefs can sustain high growth potential and may match future sea-level trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Chris T; Murphy, Gary N; Graham, Nicholas A J; Wilson, Shaun K; Januchowski-Hartley, Fraser A; East, Holly K

    2015-12-16

    Climate-induced disturbances are contributing to rapid, global-scale changes in coral reef ecology. As a consequence, reef carbonate budgets are declining, threatening reef growth potential and thus capacity to track rising sea-levels. Whether disturbed reefs can recover their growth potential and how rapidly, are thus critical research questions. Here we address these questions by measuring the carbonate budgets of 28 reefs across the Chagos Archipelago (Indian Ocean) which, while geographically remote and largely isolated from compounding human impacts, experienced severe (>90%) coral mortality during the 1998 warming event. Coral communities on most reefs recovered rapidly and we show that carbonate budgets in 2015 average +3.7 G (G = kg CaCO3 m(-2) yr(-1)). Most significantly the production rates on Acropora-dominated reefs, the corals most severely impacted in 1998, averaged +8.4 G by 2015, comparable with estimates under pre-human (Holocene) disturbance conditions. These positive budgets are reflected in high reef growth rates (4.2 mm yr(-1)) on Acropora-dominated reefs, demonstrating that carbonate budgets on these remote reefs have recovered rapidly from major climate-driven disturbances. Critically, these reefs retain the capacity to grow at rates exceeding measured regional mid-late Holocene and 20th century sea-level rise, and close to IPCC sea-level rise projections through to 2100.

  9. Sea level rise and the geoid: factor analysis approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey Sadovski

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Sea levels are rising around the world, and this is a particular concern along most of the coasts of the United States. A 1989 EPA report shows that sea levels rose 5-6 inches more than the global average along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in the last century. The main reason for this is coastal land subsidence. This sea level rise is considered more as relative sea level rise than global sea level rise. Thus, instead of studying sea level rise globally, this paper describes a statistical approach by using factor analysis of regional sea level rates of change. Unlike physical models and semi-empirical models that attempt to approach how much and how fast sea levels are changing, this methodology allows for a discussion of the factor(s that statistically affects sea level rates of change, and seeks patterns to explain spatial correlations.

  10. Mean sea level and change in the hydrological regime off Loviisa power plant around the year 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maelkki, P.; Voipio, A.

    1985-03-01

    On the request of Imatran Voima Oy, the Institute of Marine Research has made an estimate on the future sea level off Loviisa Power Plant. The estimate is based on observationsof mean sea level in the Gulf of Finland. The stations used are Helsinki (observations since 1904) and Hamina (observations since 1928). A litterature review was made in order to estimate impact of climate change on environmental conditions. The results presented are mainly based on various estimates of meterorological Global Circulation Models (GCM). Their usefulness in the connection is briefly discussed

  11. Arctic Sea Level During the Satellite Altimetry Era

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carret, A.; Johannessen, J. A.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2017-01-01

    Results of the sea-level budget in the high latitudes (up to 80°N) and the Arctic Ocean during the satellite altimetry era. We investigate the closure of the sea-level budget since 2002 using two altimetry sea-level datasets based on the Envisat waveform retracking: temperature and salinity data....... However, in terms of regional average over the region ranging from 66°N to 80°N, the steric component contributes little to the observed sea-level trend, suggesting a dominant mass contribution in the Arctic region. This is confirmed by GRACE-based ocean mass time series that agree well with the altimetry......-based sea-level time series. Direct estimate of the mass component is not possible prior to GRACE. Thus, we estimated the mass contribution from the difference between the altimetry-based sea level and the steric component. We also investigate the coastal sea level with tide gauge records. Twenty coupled...

  12. Assessing the impact of sea-level rise on a vulnerable coastal community in Accra, Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwasi Appeaning Addo

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and its associated sea-level rise are expected to significantly affect vulnerable coastal communities. Although the extent of the impact will be localised, its assessment will adopt a monitoring approach that applies globally. The topography of the beach, the type of geological material and the level of human intervention will determine the extent of the area to be flooded and the rate at which the shoreline will move inland. Gleefe, a coastal community in Ghana, has experienced frequent flooding in recent times due to the increasing occurrence of storm surge and sea-level rise. This study used available geospatial data and field measurements to determine how the beach topography has contributed to the incidence of flooding at Gleefe. The topography is generally low-lying. Sections of the beach have elevations of around 1 m, which allows seawater to move inland during very high tide. Accelerated sea-level rise as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC will destroy homes of the inhabitants and inundate the Densu wetlands behind the beach. Destruction of infrastructure will render the inhabitants homeless, whilst flooding of the wetlands will destroy the habitats of migratory birds and some endangered wildlife species such as marine turtle. Effective adaptation measures should be adopted to protect this very important coastal environment, the ecology of the wetlands and the livelihoods of the community dwellers.

  13. Coastal Sea Levels, Impacts, and Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Wahl

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Sea-level rise (SLR poses a great threat to approximately 10% of the world’s population residing in low-elevation coastal zones (i.e., land located up to 10 m of present-day mean sea-level (MSL[...

  14. Sea-Level Rise Implications for Coastal Protection from Southern Mediterranean to the U.S.A. Atlantic Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Nabil; Williams, Jeffress

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents an assessment of global sea level rise and the need to incorporate projections of rise into management plans for coastal adaptation. It also discusses the performance of a shoreline revetment; M. Ali Seawall, placed to protect the land against flooding and overtopping at coastal site, within Abu Qir Bay, East of Alexandria, Egypt along the Nile Delta coast. The assessment is conducted to examine the adequacy of the seawall under the current and progressive effects of climate change demonstrated by the anticipated sea level rise during this century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) predicts that the Mediterranean will rise 30 cm to 1 meter this century. Coastal zone management of the bay coastline is of utmost significance to the protection of the low agricultural land and the industrial complex located in the rear side of the seawall. Moreover this joint research work highlights the similarity of the nature of current and anticipated coastal zone problems, at several locations around the world, and required adaptation and protection measures. For example many barrier islands in the world such as that in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts of the U.S., lowland and deltas such as in Italy and the Nile Delta, and many islands are also experiencing significant levels of erosion and flooding that are exacerbated by sea level rise. Global Climatic Changes: At a global scale, an example of the effects of accelerated climate changes was demonstrated. In recent years, the impacts of natural disasters are more and more severe on coastal lowland areas. With the threats of climate change, sea level rise storm surge, progressive storm and hurricane activities and potential subsidence, the reduction of natural disasters in coastal lowland areas receives increased attention. Yet many of their inhabitants are becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding, and conversions of land to open ocean. These global changes were recently

  15. Cellular responses in sea fan corals: granular amoebocytes react to pathogen and climate stressors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura D Mydlarz

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Climate warming is causing environmental change making both marine and terrestrial organisms, and even humans, more susceptible to emerging diseases. Coral reefs are among the most impacted ecosystems by climate stress, and immunity of corals, the most ancient of metazoans, is poorly known. Although coral mortality due to infectious diseases and temperature-related stress is on the rise, the immune effector mechanisms that contribute to the resistance of corals to such events remain elusive. In the Caribbean sea fan corals (Anthozoa, Alcyonacea: Gorgoniidae, the cell-based immune defenses are granular acidophilic amoebocytes, which are known to be involved in wound repair and histocompatibility. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We demonstrate for the first time in corals that these cells are involved in the organismal response to pathogenic and temperature stress. In sea fans with both naturally occurring infections and experimental inoculations with the fungal pathogen Aspergillus sydowii, an inflammatory response, characterized by a massive increase of amoebocytes, was evident near infections. Melanosomes were detected in amoebocytes adjacent to protective melanin bands in infected sea fans; neither was present in uninfected fans. In naturally infected sea fans a concurrent increase in prophenoloxidase activity was detected in infected tissues with dense amoebocytes. Sea fans sampled in the field during the 2005 Caribbean Bleaching Event (a once-in-hundred-year climate event responded to heat stress with a systemic increase in amoebocytes and amoebocyte densities were also increased by elevated temperature stress in lab experiments. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The observed amoebocyte responses indicate that sea fan corals use cellular defenses to combat fungal infection and temperature stress. The ability to mount an inflammatory response may be a contributing factor that allowed the survival of even infected sea fan corals during a

  16. Experiments in Reconstructing Twentieth-Century Sea Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Richard D.; Douglas, Bruce C.

    2011-01-01

    One approach to reconstructing historical sea level from the relatively sparse tide-gauge network is to employ Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) as interpolatory spatial basis functions. The EOFs are determined from independent global data, generally sea-surface heights from either satellite altimetry or a numerical ocean model. The problem is revisited here for sea level since 1900. A new approach to handling the tide-gauge datum problem by direct solution offers possible advantages over the method of integrating sea-level differences, with the potential of eventually adjusting datums into the global terrestrial reference frame. The resulting time series of global mean sea levels appears fairly insensitive to the adopted set of EOFs. In contrast, charts of regional sea level anomalies and trends are very sensitive to the adopted set of EOFs, especially for the sparser network of gauges in the early 20th century. The reconstructions appear especially suspect before 1950 in the tropical Pacific. While this limits some applications of the sea-level reconstructions, the sensitivity does appear adequately captured by formal uncertainties. All our solutions show regional trends over the past five decades to be fairly uniform throughout the global ocean, in contrast to trends observed over the shorter altimeter era. Consistent with several previous estimates, the global sea-level rise since 1900 is 1.70 +/- 0.26 mm/yr. The global trend since 1995 exceeds 3 mm/yr which is consistent with altimeter measurements, but this large trend was possibly also reached between 1935 and 1950.

  17. The anticipated spatial loss of microtidal beaches in the next 100 years due to sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrakis, G.; Poulos, S.

    2012-04-01

    The anticipated sea level rise is expected to influence on a global scale the earth coast in the near future and it is considered to be a main factor related to coastal retreat, with beach zones being among the most vulnerable coastal landforms. Records for the period 1890-1990 have shown that sea level has already risen by 18cm (min: +10cm, max: +25cm), while the projected to 2100 sea level rise has estimated to be 20 to 50cm (IPCC, 2007). It has to be highlighted that a small rise of few tens of meters would cause shoreline retreat of a few to tens meters in the case of low lying coasts, i.e. beach zones (e.g. Bruun 1962, Nichol and Letherman, 1995, Ciavola and Corbau, 2002). Within the concept of climate change, sea level rise could also being related, in regional scale, to changes of meteorological factors such as intensity, duration and direction of the onshore blowing winds, variation in atmospheric pressure. In the microtidal Greek waters temporary changes in sea level exceeds the 1 m (HHS, 2004) This work investigates the impact of sea level rise to sixteen beach zones along the Greek coast. More specifically, shoreline retreat has been estimated for time periods of 10, 20, 50 and 100 years for the corresponding sea level rise of 0,038, 0,076m, 0,19m and 0,38m, according to the A1B scenario of IPCC (2007) and utilizing Dean's (1991) equation; the latter includes in the calculations both the effects of the anticipated sea level rise and the associated storm surge The appropriate morphodynamic and sedimentological data used for the estimation of beach retreat has been deduced from field measurements. Finally, the percentage of the sub-aerial area lost for each beach zone, under investigation, has been estimated. The results show that coastline retreat follows a liner increase in the case of eleven out of the 16 beach zones, for a time period of 100 years. Santava beach zone (inner Messiniakos Gulf) undergoes most of erosion in the first period of 20 years

  18. Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storlazzi, Curt; Gingerich, Stephen B.; van Dongeren, Ap; Cheriton, Olivia; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Quataert, Ellen; Voss, Clifford I.; Field, Donald W.; Annamalai, Hariharasubramanian; Piniak, Greg A.; McCall, Robert T.

    2018-01-01

    Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability. We project the impact of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding on atoll infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of climate change scenarios. We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events. This study provides critical information for understanding the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts on atoll islands that will result in significant, unavoidable geopolitical issues if it becomes necessary to abandon and relocate low-lying island states.

  19. Sea level rise and the geoid: factor analysis approach

    OpenAIRE

    Song, Hongzhi; Sadovski, Alexey; Jeffress, Gary

    2013-01-01

    Sea levels are rising around the world, and this is a particular concern along most of the coasts of the United States. A 1989 EPA report shows that sea levels rose 5-6 inches more than the global average along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in the last century. The main reason for this is coastal land subsidence. This sea level rise is considered more as relative sea level rise than global sea level rise. Thus, instead of studying sea level rise globally, this paper describes a statistical...

  20. Indo-Pacific sea level variability during recent decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamanaka, G.; Tsujino, H.; Nakano, H.; Urakawa, S. L.; Sakamoto, K.

    2016-12-01

    Decadal variability of sea level in the Indo-Pacific region is investigated using a historical OGCM simulation. The OGCM driven by the atmospheric forcing removing long-term trends clearly exhibits decadal sea level variability in the Pacific Ocean, which is associated with eastern tropical Pacific thermal anomalies. During the period of 1977-1987, the sea level anomalies are positive in the eastern equatorial Pacific and show deviations from a north-south symmetric distribution, with strongly negative anomalies in the western tropical South Pacific. During the period of 1996-2006, in contrast, the sea level anomalies are negative in the eastern equatorial Pacific and show a nearly north-south symmetric pattern, with positive anomalies in both hemispheres. Concurrently, sea level anomalies in the south-eastern Indian Ocean vary with those in the western tropical Pacific. These sea level variations are closely related to large-scale wind fields. Indo-Pacific sea level distributions are basically determined by wind anomalies over the equatorial region as well as wind stress curl anomalies over the off-equatorial region.

  1. Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2009-01-01

    The rate of sea level rise and its causes are topics of active debate. Here we use a delayed response statistical model to attribute the past 1000 years of sea level variability to various natural (volcanic and solar radiative) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) forcings. We show...... that until 1800 the main drivers of sea level change are volcanic and solar radiative forcings. For the past 200 years sea level rise is mostly associated with anthropogenic factors. Only 4 ± 1.5 cm (25% of total sea level rise) during the 20th century is attributed to natural forcings, the remaining 14 ± 1...

  2. Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.; O'Regan, Matt; Pearce, Christof; Gemery, Laura; Toomey, Michael; Semiletov, Igor

    2017-01-01

    Deglacial (12.8–10.7 ka) sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1) and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1), and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1). Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM;  ∼  24 kiloannum or ka) minimum sea level of  ∼  125–130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.). Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1) followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal) period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ∼  400 cm of core depth) is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42–47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

  3. Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Cronin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Deglacial (12.8–10.7 ka sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1 and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1, and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1. Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM;  ∼  24 kiloannum or ka minimum sea level of  ∼  125–130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.. Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1 followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ∼  400 cm of core depth is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42–47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

  4. Using Direct Policy Search to Identify Robust Strategies in Adapting to Uncertain Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garner, G. G.; Keller, K.

    2017-12-01

    Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with deeply uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods have provided tremendous insight into this decision problem, but are often silent on tradeoffs as well as the effects of tail-area events and of potential future learning. Here we reformulate a simple sea-level rise adaptation model to address these concerns. We show that Direct Policy Search yields improved solution quality, with respect to Pareto-dominance in the objectives, over the traditional approach under uncertain sea-level rise projections and storm surge. Additionally, the new formulation produces high quality solutions with less computational demands than the traditional approach. Our results illustrate the utility of multi-objective adaptive formulations for the example of coastal adaptation, the value of information provided by observations, and point to wider-ranging application in climate change adaptation decision problems.

  5. The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP contribution to CMIP6: investigation of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Gregory

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs. It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sea-level rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, while the weakening of the AMOC causes redistribution of heat towards lower latitudes. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable

  6. Decadal Cycles of Earth Rotation, Mean Sea Level and Climate, Excited by Solar Activity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Chapanov, Y.; Ron, Cyril; Vondrák, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 2 (2017), s. 241-250 ISSN 1214-9705 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-15943S Institutional support: RVO:67985815 Keywords : Earth rotation * solar activity * mean sea level Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography OBOR OECD: Physical geography Impact factor: 0.699, year: 2016

  7. Living with sea-level rise and climate change: a case study of the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Koningsveld, M.; Mulder, J.P.M. P.M.; Stive, M.J.F.; van der Valk, L.; van der Weck, A.W.

    2008-01-01

    Based on historical hindsight, this paper shows that sea-level rise has played a fundamental role in the development of the low-lying environment of the Netherlands. It was beneficial in morphological terms during the mid-Holocene, but from Roman times, it has been a threat to the coastal zone

  8. Recent Arctic Sea Level Variations from Satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Piccioni, Gaia

    2016-01-01

    Sea level monitoring in the Arctic region has always been an extreme challenge for remote sensing, and in particular for satellite altimetry. Despite more than two decades of observations, altimetry is still limited in the inner Arctic Ocean. We have developed an updated version of the Danish...... Technical University's (DTU) Arctic Ocean altimetric sea level timeseries starting in 1993 and now extended up to 2015 with CryoSat-2 data. The time-series covers a total of 23 years, which allows higher accuracy in sea level trend determination. The record shows a sea level trend of 2.2 ± 1.1 mm....../y for the region between 66°N and 82°N. In particular, a local increase of 15 mm/y is found in correspondence to the Beaufort Gyre. An early estimate of the mean sea level trend budget closure in the Arctic for the period 2005–2015 was derived by using the Equivalent Water Heights obtained from GRACE Tellus...

  9. Revisiting the contemporary sea-level budget on global and regional scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rietbroek, Roelof; Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther; Kusche, Jürgen; Schröter, Jens; Dahle, Christoph

    2016-02-09

    Dividing the sea-level budget into contributions from ice sheets and glaciers, the water cycle, steric expansion, and crustal movement is challenging, especially on regional scales. Here, Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity observations and sea-level anomalies from altimetry are used in a joint inversion, ensuring a consistent decomposition of the global and regional sea-level rise budget. Over the years 2002-2014, we find a global mean steric trend of 1.38 ± 0.16 mm/y, compared with a total trend of 2.74 ± 0.58 mm/y. This is significantly larger than steric trends derived from in situ temperature/salinity profiles and models which range from 0.66 ± 0.2 to 0.94 ± 0.1 mm/y. Mass contributions from ice sheets and glaciers (1.37 ± 0.09 mm/y, accelerating with 0.03 ± 0.02 mm/y(2)) are offset by a negative hydrological component (-0.29 ± 0.26 mm/y). The combined mass rate (1.08 ± 0.3 mm/y) is smaller than previous GRACE estimates (up to 2 mm/y), but it is consistent with the sum of individual contributions (ice sheets, glaciers, and hydrology) found in literature. The altimetric sea-level budget is closed by coestimating a remaining component of 0.22 ± 0.26 mm/y. Well above average sea-level rise is found regionally near the Philippines (14.7 ± 4.39 mm/y) and Indonesia (8.3 ± 4.7 mm/y) which is dominated by steric components (11.2 ± 3.58 mm/y and 6.4 ± 3.18 mm/y, respectively). In contrast, in the central and Eastern part of the Pacific, negative steric trends (down to -2.8 ± 1.53 mm/y) are detected. Significant regional components are found, up to 5.3 ± 2.6 mm/y in the northwest Atlantic, which are likely due to ocean bottom pressure variations.

  10. The Red Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum: implications for sea level reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gildor, H.; Biton, E.; Peltier, W. R.

    2006-12-01

    The Red Sea (RS) is a semi-enclosed basin connected to the Indian Ocean via a narrow and shallow strait, and surrounded by arid areas which exhibits high sensitivity to atmospheric changes and sea level reduction. We have used the MIT GCM to investigate the changes in the hydrography and circulation in the RS in response to reduced sea level, variability in the Indian monsoons, and changes in atmospheric temperature and humidity that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The model results show high sensitivity to sea level reduction especially in the salinity field (increasing with the reduction in sea level) together with a mild atmospheric impact. Sea level reduction decreases the stratification, increases subsurface temperatures, and alters the circulation pattern at the Strait of Bab el Mandab, which experiences a transition from submaximal flow to maximal flow. The reduction in sea level at LGM alters the location of deep water formation which shifts to an open sea convective site in the northern part of the RS compared to present day situation in which deep water is formed from the Gulf of Suez outflow. Our main result based on both the GCM and on a simple hydraulic control model which takes into account mixing process at the Strait of Bab El Mandeb, is that sea level was reduced by only ~100 m in the Bab El Mandeb region during the LGM, i.e. the water depth at the Hanish sill (the shallowest part in the Strait Bab el Mandab) was around 34 m. This result agrees with the recent reconstruction of the LGM low stand of the sea in this region based upon the ICE-5G (VM2) model of Peltier (2004).

  11. Dead Sea deep cores: A window into past climate and seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Mordechai; Ben-Avraham, Zvi; Goldstein, Steven L.

    2011-12-01

    The area surrounding the Dead Sea was the locus of humankind's migration out of Africa and thus has been the home of peoples since the Stone Age. For this reason, understanding the climate and tectonic history of the region provides valuable insight into archaeology and studies of human history and helps to gain a better picture of future climate and tectonic scenarios. The deposits at the bottom of the Dead Sea are a geological archive of the environmental conditions (e.g., rains, floods, dust storms, droughts) during ice ages and warm ages, as well as of seismic activity in this key region. An International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) deep drilling project was performed in the Dead Sea between November 2010 and March 2011. The project was funded by the ICDP and agencies in Israel, Germany, Japan, Norway, Switzerland, and the United States. Drilling was conducted using the new Large Lake Drilling Facility (Figure 1), a barge with a drilling rig run by DOSECC, Inc. (Drilling, Observation and Sampling of the Earth's Continental Crust), a nonprofit corporation dedicated to advancing scientific drilling worldwide. The main purpose of the project was to recover a long, continuous core to provide a high resolution record of the paleoclimate, paleoenvironment, paleoseismicity, and paleomagnetism of the Dead Sea Basin. With this, scientists are beginning to piece together a record of the climate and seismic history of the Middle East during the past several hundred thousand years in millennial to decadal to annual time resolution.

  12. Adaptive Capacity Mapping of Semarang Offshore Territory by the Increasing of Water Level and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ifan Ridlo Suhelm

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Tidal inundation, flood and land subsidence are the problems faced by Semarang city related to climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC predicted the increase of sea level rise 18-59 cm during 1990-2100 while the temperature increase 0,6°C to 4°C during the same period. The Semarang coastal city was highly vulnerable to sea level rise and it increased with two factors, topography and land subsidence. The purpose of this study was to map the adaptive capacity of coastal areas in the face of the threat of disasters caused by climate change. The parameters used are Network Number, Employee based educational background, Source Main Livelihoods, Health Facilities, and Infrastructure Road. Adaptive capacity of regions classified into 3 (three classes, namely low, medium and high. The results of the study showed that most of the coastal area of Semarang have adaptive capacities ranging from low to moderate, while the village with low capacity totaling 58 villages (58.62% of the total coastal district in the city of Semarang.

  13. Joint Projections of US East Coast Sea Level and Storm Surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, Christopher M.; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Villarini, Gabriele

    2015-01-01

    Future coastal flood risk will be strongly influenced by sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. These two factors are generally considered independently. Here, we assess twenty-first century changes in the coastal hazard for the US East Coast using a flood index (FI) that accounts for changes in flood duration and magnitude driven by SLR and changes in power dissipation index (PDI, an integrated measure of tropical cyclone intensity, frequency and duration). Sea-level rise and PDI are derived from representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations of 15 atmosphere- ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). By 2080-2099, projected changes in the FI relative to 1986-2005 are substantial and positively skewed: a 10th-90th percentile range 4-75 times higher for RCP 2.6 and 35-350 times higher for RCP 8.5. High-end Fl projections are driven by three AOGCMs that project the largest increases in SLR, PDI and upper ocean temperatures. Changes in PDI are particularly influential if their intra-model correlation with SLR is included, increasing the RCP 8.5 90th percentile FI by a further 25%. Sea-level rise from other, possibly correlated, climate processes (for example, ice sheet and glacier mass changes) will further increase coastal flood risk and should be accounted for in comprehensive assessments.

  14. Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas-Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.

    2013-07-01

    Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrap-based method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of Hs up to ±10% were obtained, whereas they were around ±20% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of Hs are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the Hs magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.

  15. Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Feedbacks in the CESM1 Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, A.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Bonazzola, M.

    2017-12-01

    Clouds have the potential to accelerate or slow the rate of Arctic sea ice loss through their radiative influence on the surface. Cloud feedbacks can therefore play into Arctic warming as clouds respond to changes in sea ice cover. As the Arctic moves toward an ice-free state, understanding how cloud - sea ice relationships change in response to sea ice loss is critical for predicting the future climate trajectory. From satellite observations we know the effect of present-day sea ice cover on clouds, but how will clouds respond to sea ice loss as the Arctic transitions to a seasonally open water state? In this study we use a lidar simulator to first evaluate cloud - sea ice relationships in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) against present-day observations (2006-2015). In the current climate, the cloud response to sea ice is well-represented in CESM1: we see no summer cloud response to changes in sea ice cover, but more fall clouds over open water than over sea ice. Since CESM1 is credible for the current Arctic climate, we next assess if our process-based understanding of Arctic cloud feedbacks related to sea ice loss is relevant for understanding future Arctic clouds. In the future Arctic, summer cloud structure continues to be insensitive to surface conditions. As the Arctic warms in the fall, however, the boundary layer deepens and cloud fraction increases over open ocean during each consecutive decade from 2020 - 2100. This study will also explore seasonal changes in cloud properties such as opacity and liquid water path. Results thus far suggest that a positive fall cloud - sea ice feedback exists in the present-day and future Arctic climate.

  16. Impact of prescribed Arctic sea ice thickness in simulations of the present and future climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krinner, Gerhard [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam (Germany); INSU-CNRS and UJF Grenoble, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement (LGGE), 54 rue Moliere, BP 96, Saint Martin d' Heres Cedex (France); Rinke, Annette; Dethloff, Klaus [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam (Germany); Gorodetskaya, Irina V. [INSU-CNRS and UJF Grenoble, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement (LGGE), 54 rue Moliere, BP 96, Saint Martin d' Heres Cedex (France)

    2010-09-15

    This paper describes atmospheric general circulation model climate change experiments in which the Arctic sea-ice thickness is either fixed to 3 m or somewhat more realistically parameterized in order to take into account essentially the spatial variability of Arctic sea-ice thickness, which is, to a first approximation, a function of ice type (perennial or seasonal). It is shown that, both at present and at the end of the twenty-first century (under the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas scenario), the impact of a variable sea-ice thickness compared to a uniform value is essentially limited to the cold seasons and the lower troposphere. However, because first-year ice is scarce in the Central Arctic today, but not under SRES-A1B conditions at the end of the twenty-first century, and because the impact of a sea-ice thickness reduction can be masked by changes of the open water fraction, the spatial and temporal patterns of the effect of sea-ice thinning on the atmosphere differ between the two periods considered. As a consequence, not only the climate simulated at a given period, but also the simulated Arctic climate change over the twenty-first century is affected by the way sea-ice thickness is prescribed. (orig.)

  17. Causes and consequences of short-term sea-level changes in the Cretaceous green- and "hothouse": Topics and context of IGCP Project 609

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sames, Benjamin; Wagreich, Michael

    2015-04-01

    In contrast to the well-understood process of glacial eustasy, controlled mainly by waxing and waning of continental ice sheets, significant short-term, i.e. 10s kyr to a few myr (3rd to 4th order cycles) sea-level changes during the Cretaceous major greenhouse episode remain enigmatic. Such cyclic changes are often explained by the presence of ephemeral ice sheets even during the hottest greenhouse phases ("hothouse periods"), such as the mid-Cretaceous. Though Cretaceous global eustasy involves processes like brief glacial episodes (glacio-eustasy) for which evidence was given - at least for the Early Cretaceous and the late Late Cretaceous - other mechanisms have to be taken into consideration for the "hothouse periods" during which continental ice shields are highly improbable, like the storage and release of groundwater (termed "limno-eustasy" or "aquifer-eustasy"), the possible effect and magnitude of which might have been highly underestimated. Investigation of the timing, the causes, and the consequences of significant short-term (i.e. mainly kyr to 100s of kyr) sea-level changes during the last major greenhouse episode of Earth history, the Cretaceous, is the ultimate goal of the UNESCO IGCP (International Geoscience Programme) project number 609 "Climate-environmental deteriorations during greenhouse phases: Causes and consequences of short-term Cretaceous sea-level changes" (2013-2017; http://www.univie.ac.at/igcp609/). This also comprises the global versus regional correlation and extent of the sequences, their cyclicities, as well as the processes and triggering mechanisms for these, and marine to non-marine correlations. Recent refinements of the geological time scale have made major advances for the Cretaceous to yield a resolution comparable to that of younger Earth history. It is now for the first time possible to correlate and date short-term Cretaceous sea-level records with a resolution appropriate for their detailed analysis. Recognized

  18. Sea level monitoring in Africa | Woodworth | African Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Information Network for Africa (ODINAfrica) programme are described and a survey of currently existing and planned sea level stations in Africa is presented, together with information on where data for existing stations may be found. Keywords: sea level data applications, sea level data telemetry, sea level networks. African ...

  19. Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

    2014-06-01

    Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework†

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

    2014-01-01

    Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25505370

  1. More than 70 years of continuous sea level records on the Santander Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavín, Alicia; Tel, Elena; Molinero, Joaquin; Rodriguez, Carmen

    2017-04-01

    The knowledge of sea level height is important for many different sectors as navigation, transport, building infrastructures, tourism, or maritime sports, between others. Tides are mainly composed of an astronomical part and a meteorological one. Sometimes, their joined action is the responsible of extreme behaviors in the sea level. Influence of pressure differences, as well as related winds, is important in the behavior of sea level to analyze. The first system for reading the sea level was a tide board attached at the pier. In Spain the first modern tide gauge was installed in the Port of Alicante, Mediterranean Sea, in 1873 depending of the National Geographic Institute (IGN). Just the following year, a similar tide gauge was installed at the entrance of the Santander Bay. "La Magdalena" tide gauge was working during two periods 1876-1928 and 1963-1975. Together with Cádiz, the IGN tide gauges were used to determinate the national datum for terrestrial cartography. The Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO) tide gauge network was initiated in 1943 with the installation of tide gauges along the Spanish coast. One of them was located in Santander and has been working since then. At the beginning it was a float tide gauge connected to a graphical continuous recorder. Nowadays, it also has a digital encoder and a remote connection that allow using the recorded data for operational purposes. Later a Radar system was added. This tide gauge is referred to the Tide Gauge Zero and also calibrated to a benchmark in order to have a unique reference. This high quality sea level information is required for international and regional research activities, as Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). In particular, long time series are widely used for climate change detection. The sea level long term variability studies require a very good quality data focus in the reference of the data along the whole period and also it will be more precisely if we can remove the crustal

  2. Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Hoffman H. N.; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Zhou, Wen

    2018-01-01

    We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter (December-March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure (SLP) along 60°N, including the Urals-Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell, where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic. In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like pattern. Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage.

  3. Indo-Pacific sea level variability at multidecadal time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrifield, M. A.; Thompson, P. R.

    2016-12-01

    Long tide gauge and atmospheric pressure measurements are used to infer multidecadal fluctuations in trade wind forcing and the associated Indo-Pacific sea level response along coastal and equatorial waveguides. The trade wind variations are marked by a weakening beginning with the late 1970s climate shift and a subsequent return to mean conditions since the early 1990s. These fluctuations covary with multidecadal wind changes at mid-latitudes, as measured by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or the North Pacific indices; however, the mid-latitude multidecadal variations prior to 1970 or noticeably absent in the inferred trade wind record. The different behavior of tropical and mid-latitude winds support the notion that multidecadal climate variations in the Pacific result from a combination of processes and not a single coherent mode spanning the basin. In particular, the two-decade long satellite altimeter record represents a period of apparent connection between the two regions that was not exhibited earlier in the century.

  4. Evaluating Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise in the Northeastern United States - Approach and Methods