Nielsen, L. H.
Full Text Available Current developments in the media marketplace and an increased need for visibility to secure funding are leading inevitably to faster, simpler and more aggressive science communication. This article presents the results of an exploratory study of potential credibility problems in astronomy press releases, their causes, consequences and possible remedies. The study consisted of eleven open-ended interviews with journalists, scientists and public information officers. Results suggest that credibility issues are central to communication, deeply integrated into the workflow and can have severe consequences for the actors (especially the scientist, but are an unavoidable part of thecommunication process.
Horton, Cristi C.; Peterson, Tarla Rai; Banerjee, Paulami
Abstract Conservation policy sits at the nexus of natural science and politics. On the one hand, conservation scientists strive to maintain scientific credibility by emphasizing that their research findings are the result of disinterested observations of reality. On the other hand, conservation scientists are committed to conservation even if they do not advocate a particular policy. The professional conservation literature offers guidance on negotiating the relationship between scientific objectivity and political advocacy without damaging conservation science's credibility. The value of this guidance, however, may be restricted by limited recognition of credibility's multidimensionality and emergent nature: it emerges through perceptions of expertise, goodwill, and trustworthiness. We used content analysis of the literature to determine how credibility is framed in conservation science as it relates to apparent contradictions between science and advocacy. Credibility typically was framed as a static entity lacking dimensionality. Authors identified expertise or trustworthiness as important, but rarely mentioned goodwill. They usually did not identify expertise, goodwill, or trustworthiness as dimensions of credibility or recognize interactions among these 3 dimensions of credibility. This oversimplification may limit the ability of conservation scientists to contribute to biodiversity conservation. Accounting for the emergent quality and multidimensionality of credibility should enable conservation scientists to advance biodiversity conservation more effectively. PMID:26041036
Does the general public need to understand science? And if so, is it scientists' responsibility to communicate? Critics have argued that, despite the huge strides made in technology, we live in a "scientifically illiterate" society--one that thinks about the world and makes important decisions without taking scientific knowledge into account. But is the solution to this "illiteracy" to deluge the layman with scientific information? Or does science news need to be focused around specific issues and organized into stories that are meaningful and relevant to people's lives? In this unprecedented, comprehensive look at a new field, Jane Gregory and Steve Miller point the way to a more effective public understanding of science in the years ahead.
Penders, Bart; Wolters, Anna; Feskens, Edith F.; Brouns, Fred; Huber, Machteld; Maeckelberghe, Els L.M.; Navis, Gerjan; Ockhuizen, Theo; Plat, Jogchum; Sikkema, Jan; Stasse-Wolthuis, Marianne; Veer, van 't Pieter; Verweij, Marcel; Vries, de Jan
Nutrition science has enriched our understanding of how to stay healthy by producing valuable knowledge about the interaction of nutrients, food, and the human body. Nutrition science also has raised societal awareness about the links between food consumption and well-being, and provided the basis
Full Text Available The success of citizen science in producing important and unique data is attracting interest from scientists and resource managers. Nonetheless, questions remain about the credibility of citizen science data. Citizen science programs desire to meet the same standards of credibility as academic science, but they usually work within a different context, for example, training and managing significant numbers of volunteers with limited resources. We surveyed the credibility-building strategies of 30 citizen science programs that monitor environmental aspects of the California coast. We identified a total of twelve strategies: Three that are applied during training and planning; four that are applied during data collection; and five that are applied during data analysis and program evaluation. Variation in the application of these strategies by program is related to factors such as the number of participants, the focus on group or individual work, and the time commitment required of volunteers. The structure of each program and available resources require program designers to navigate tradeoffs in the choices of their credibility strategies. Our results illustrate those tradeoffs and provide a framework for the necessary discussions between citizen science programs and potential users of their data—including scientists and decision makers—about shared expectations for credibility and practical approaches for meeting those expectations. This article has been corrected here: http://dx.doi.org/10.5334/cstp.91
Penders, Bart; Wolters, Anna; Feskens, Edith F; Brouns, Fred; Huber, Machteld; Maeckelberghe, Els L M; Navis, Gerjan; Ockhuizen, Theo; Plat, Jogchum; Sikkema, Jan; Stasse-Wolthuis, Marianne; van 't Veer, Pieter; Verweij, Marcel; de Vries, Jan
Nutrition science has enriched our understanding of how to stay healthy by producing valuable knowledge about the interaction of nutrients, food, and the human body. Nutrition science also has raised societal awareness about the links between food consumption and well-being, and provided the basis
NREL Decision Science and Informatics Energy Decision Science and Informatics NREL utilizes and advances state-of-the-art decision science and informatics to help partners make well-informed energy decisions backed by credible, objective data analysis and insights to maximize the impact of energy
Ingram, Julie; Mills, Jane; Dibari, Camilla
A key narrative within climate change science is that conserving and improving soil carbon through agricultural practices can contribute to agricultural productivity and is a promising option for mitigating carbon loss through sequestration. This paper examines the potential disconnect between...... science and practice in the context of communicating information about soil carbon management. It focuses on the information producing process and on stakeholder (adviser, farmer representative, policy maker etc) assessment of the attributes credibility, salience and legitimacy. In doing this it draws...... on results from consultations with stakeholders in the SmartSOIL project which aimed to provide decision support guidelines about practices that optimise carbon mitigation and crop productivity. An iterative methodology, used to engage stakeholders in developing, testing and validating a range of decision...
Søgaard, Rikke; Lindholt, Jes S.
OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the credibility of health economic models of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms for health policy decision-making has improved since 2005 when a systematic review by Campbell et al. concluded that reporting standards were poor and there was divergence between...... benefited from general advances in health economic modelling and some improvements in reporting were noted. However, the low level of agreement between studies in model structures and assumptions, and difficulty in justifying these (convergent validity), remain a threat to the credibility of health economic...... models. Decision-makers should not accept the results of a modelling study if the methods are not fully transparent and justified. Modellers should, whenever relevant, supplement a primary report of results with a technical report detailing and discussing the methodological choices made....
Koballa, Thomas R., Jr.
Identifies communicators whom eighth-grade girls perceive as credible regarding reasons for taking elective physical science courses in high school. Finds that father, woman science teacher, mother, and boy high school student are ranked highly. Attributes associated with the communicators were classified as prestige, trustworthiness, similarity,…
Eriksson, Leif G.
The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) deep geological repository for long-lived, transuranic radioactive waste (TRUW) opened on the 26th of March 1999. Beginning on the 4th of April 1994, the United States Department of Energy (DOE), implemented the WIPP Disposal Decision Plan (DDP), which embodied the five-year vision and intents of the then DOE Manager of the Carlsbad Area Office (CAO), presently the Carlsbad Field Office (CBFO). The successful design and implementation of the DDP ensured good science, enhanced regulator and stake holder (affected and interested parties) interactions and acceptance of programmatic decisions, which resulted in the certification of the WIPP TRUW repository by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on the 18th of May 1998, almost three years earlier than projected in November 1993. The present paper contains three sections: A concise background information on the CBFO's TRUW disposal program, incl. the legal framework, current status, and author-envisioned challenges and solutions; A description of the main components and attributes of the WIPP DDP. A summary of the lessons learned during and after the 1994 through 1998 implementation of the WIPP DDP
Eriksson, Leif G. [GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) deep geological repository for long-lived, transuranic radioactive waste (TRUW) opened on the 26th of March 1999. Beginning on the 4th of April 1994, the United States Department of Energy (DOE), implemented the WIPP Disposal Decision Plan (DDP), which embodied the five-year vision and intents of the then DOE Manager of the Carlsbad Area Office (CAO), presently the Carlsbad Field Office (CBFO). The successful design and implementation of the DDP ensured good science, enhanced regulator and stake holder (affected and interested parties) interactions and acceptance of programmatic decisions, which resulted in the certification of the WIPP TRUW repository by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on the 18th of May 1998, almost three years earlier than projected in November 1993. The present paper contains three sections: A concise background information on the CBFO's TRUW disposal program, incl. the legal framework, current status, and author-envisioned challenges and solutions; A description of the main components and attributes of the WIPP DDP. A summary of the lessons learned during and after the 1994 through 1998 implementation of the WIPP DDP.
Koballa, Thomas R., Jr.
Eighth-grade girls (N=257) randomly selected from nine different public junior high schools in central Texas were questioned in order to identify the communicators whom they perceive as highly credible regarding reasons for taking elective physical science courses in high school and the attributes associated with these communicators. Four persons were each identified by better than 10 percent of the sample as the best person to try to convince junior high school girls to take elective physical science courses in high school. In order of perceived credibility, these persons are father, woman science teacher, mother, and boy high school student. Slight variations in the order of perceived credibility were found when the responses from girls of the different ethnic groups represented in the sample (Caucasian, Hispanic, Black, and Asian) were examined separately. Attributes listed by the respondents for father, woman science teacher, mother, and boy high school student were examined and classified into the categories of prestige, trustworthiness, similarity, attractiveness, and power. Prestige and trustworthiness are the attributes associates most frequently with communicators identified as highly credible. Implications of the present study and suggestions for further research are discussed.
Wang, Bowen; Xiong, Haitao; Jiang, Chengrui
As a hot topic in supply chain management, fuzzy method has been widely used in logistics center location selection to improve the reliability and suitability of the logistics center location selection with respect to the impacts of both qualitative and quantitative factors. However, it does not consider the consistency and the historical assessments accuracy of experts in predecisions. So this paper proposes a multicriteria decision making model based on credibility of decision makers by introducing priority of consistency and historical assessments accuracy mechanism into fuzzy multicriteria decision making approach. In this way, only decision makers who pass the credibility check are qualified to perform the further assessment. Finally, a practical example is analyzed to illustrate how to use the model. The result shows that the fuzzy multicriteria decision making model based on credibility mechanism can improve the reliability and suitability of site selection for the logistics center.
Zhang, Joy Yueyue
In contrast to increasing debates on China's rising status as a global scientific power, issues of China's science communication remain under-explored. Based on 21 in-depth interviews in three cities, this article examines Chinese scientists' accounts of the entangled web of influence which conditions the process of how scientific knowledge achieves (or fails to achieve) its civic authority. A main finding of this study is a 'credibility paradox' as a result of the over-politicisation of science and science communication in China. Respondents report that an absence of visible institutional endorsements renders them more public credibility and better communication outcomes. Thus, instead of exploiting formal channels of science communication, scientists interviewed were more keen to act as 'informal risk communicators' in grassroots and private events. Chinese scientists' perspectives on how to earn public support of their research sheds light on the nature and impact of a 'civic epistemology' in an authoritarian state. © The Author(s) 2015.
Mandia, S. A.
Although there is an overwhelming scientific consensus that humans are driving modern day climate change, a significant portion of Americans are still not convinced. One reason for this gap in understanding results from a large body of misinformation that is easily accessible by students and educators. Here the author presents an effective teaching model to allow students to assess the credibility of organizations and their authors who publish climate science information aimed toward the general public.
Busemeyer, Jerome R
This article briefly reviews the history and interplay between decision theory, behavioral decision-making research, and cognitive psychology. The review reveals the increasingly important impact that psychology and cognitive science have on decision science. One of the main contributions of cognitive science to decision science is the development of dynamic models that describe the cognitive processes that underlay the evolution of preferences during deliberation phase of making a decision. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Zhang, Joy Yueyue
In contrast to increasing debates on China’s rising status as a global scientific power, issues of China’s science communication remain under-explored. Based on 21 in-depth interviews in three cities, this article examines Chinese scientists’ accounts of the entangled web of influence which conditions the process of how scientific knowledge achieves (or fails to achieve) its civic authority. A main finding of this study is a ‘credibility paradox’ as a result of the over-politicisation of science and science communication in China. Respondents report that an absence of visible institutional endorsements renders them more public credibility and better communication outcomes. Thus, instead of exploiting formal channels of science communication, scientists interviewed were more keen to act as ‘informal risk communicators’ in grassroots and private events. Chinese scientists’ perspectives on how to earn public support of their research sheds light on the nature and impact of a ‘civic epistemology’ in an authoritarian state. PMID:26307594
Penders, Bart; Nelis, Annemiek P
We expand upon the notion of the "credibility cycle" through a study of credibility engineering by the food industry. Research and development (R&D) as well as marketing contribute to the credibility of the food company Unilever and its claims. Innovation encompasses the development, marketing, and sales of products. These are directed towards three distinct audiences: scientific peers, regulators, and consumers. R&D uses scientific articles to create credit for itself amongst peers and regulators. These articles are used to support health claims on products. However, R&D, regulation, and marketing are not separate realms. A single strategy of credibility engineering connects health claims to a specific public through linking that public to a health issue and a food product.
Full Text Available Background: Trauma survivors often have to negotiate legal systems such as refugee status determination or the criminal justice system. Methods & results: We outline and discuss the contribution which research on trauma and related psychological processes can make to two particular areas of law where complex and difficult legal decisions must be made: in claims for refugee and humanitarian protection, and in reporting and prosecuting sexual assault in the criminal justice system. Conclusion: There is a breadth of psychological knowledge that, if correctly applied, would limit the inappropriate reliance on assumptions and myth in legal decision-making in these settings. Specific recommendations are made for further study.
Kaaberger, T. [Swedish Society for Nature Conservation (Sweden)
The author starts by questioning the need for an EIA, since he sees a common attitude that the EIA is a tool for getting the community to accept the implementation of decisions that have already been made, and not a rational, organized way of achieving a basis for decision-making. A question of decisive importance for the relevancy of an EIA is whether (or not) the decisions already have been made, and the author points at indications which he believes support this view. Finally, arguments for delegating the EIA process to an external body are given.
The author starts by questioning the need for an EIA, since he sees a common attitude that the EIA is a tool for getting the community to accept the implementation of decisions that have already been made, and not a rational, organized way of achieving a basis for decision-making. A question of decisive importance for the relevancy of an EIA is whether (or not) the decisions already have been made, and the author points at indications which he believes support this view. Finally, arguments for delegating the EIA process to an external body are given
Malta Romeiras, Francisco
Upon the restoration of the Society of Jesus in Portugal in 1858, the Jesuits founded two important colleges that made significant efforts in the promotion of hands-on experimental teaching of the natural sciences. At the Colégio de Campolide (Lisbon, 1858-1910) and the Colégio de São Fiel (Louriçal do Campo, 1863-1910) the Jesuits created modern chemistry and physics laboratories, organized significant botanical, zoological and geological collections, promoted scientific expeditions with their students to observe eclipses and to collect novel species of animals and plants, and engaged in original research work in physics, botany, and zoology. The successful implementation of modern scientific practices gained these colleges public recognition as the most prominent secondary institutions in nineteenth-century Portugal, and this made a major contribution to countering the widespread and commonly accepted anti-Jesuit accusations of obscurantism and scientific backwardness.
One doesn't know whom to believe among the many experts on the disposition of radioactive wastes, and hence he is thrown on naive faith, scientists' and engineers' faith, and fatalistic faith in science and technology. Despite the general faith in disposal in salt beds, geologists have reservations regarding this mode of disposal. The tendency of some experts to shift the disposal problem to someone else is pointed out. Need for public participation remains
TECHNICAL REPORT TR 79-2-97 DECISION ANALYSIS: ENGINEERING SCIENCE OR CLINICAL ART ? by Dennis M. Buede Prepared for Defense Advanced Research...APPLICATIONS OF THE ENGINEER- ING SCIENCE AND CLINICAL ART EXTREMES 9 3.1 Applications of the Engineering Science Approach 9 3.1.1 Mexican electrical...DISCUSSION 29 4.1 Engineering Science versus Clinical Art : A Characterization of When Each is Most Attractive 30 4.2 The Implications of the Engineering
Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina M; Blake, Ann; Carroll, William F; Corbett, Charles J; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Lempert, Robert J; Linkov, Igor; McFadden, Roger; Moran, Kelly D; Olivetti, Elsa; Ostrom, Nancy K; Romero, Michelle; Schoenung, Julie M; Seager, Thomas P; Sinsheimer, Peter; Thayer, Kristina A
Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals. We assessed whether decision science may assist the alternatives analysis decision maker in comparing alternatives across a range of metrics. A workshop was convened that included representatives from government, academia, business, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and were prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect on other groups' findings. We concluded that the further incorporation of decision science into alternatives analysis would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients and would also advance the science of decision analysis. We advance four recommendations: a ) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; b ) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; c ) supporting transdisciplinary research; and d ) supporting education and outreach efforts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP483.
Wong, Carlos King Ho; Wu, Olivia; Cheung, Bernard M Y
The aim of this article is to describe the process, evaluation criteria, and possible outcomes of decision-making for new drugs listed in the Hong Kong Hospital Authority Drug Formulary in comparison to the health technology assessment (HTA) policy overseas. Details of decision-making processes including the new drug listing submission, Drug Advisory Committee (DAC) meeting, and procedures prior to and following the meeting, were extracted from the official Hong Kong Hospital Authority drug formulary management website and manual. Publicly-available information related to the new drug decision-making process for five HTA agencies [the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE), the Scottish Medicines Consortium (SMC), the Australia Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC), the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health (CADTH), and the New Zealand Pharmaceutical Management Agency (PHARMAC)] were reviewed and retrieved from official documents from public domains. The DAC is in charge of systemically and critically appraising new drugs before they are listed on the formulary, reviewing submitted applications, and making the decision to list the drug based on scientific evidence to which safety, efficacy, and cost-effectiveness are the primary considerations. When compared with other HTA agencies, transparency of the decision-making process of the DAC, the relevance of clinical and health economic evidence, and the lack of health economic and methodological input of submissions are the major challenges to the new-drug listing policy in Hong Kong. Despite these challenges, this review provides suggestions for the establishment of a more transparent, credible, and evidence-based decision-making process in the Hong Kong Hospital Authority Drug Formulary. Proposals for improvement in the listing of new drugs in the formulary should be a priority of healthcare reforms.
Since the beginning of the so-called nuclear controversy, problems of risk and of safety increasingly have come to be discussed also by persons not really qualified for the job; often, results and findings were presented which, although technically unfounded or based on wrong assumptions or conclusions, have greatly helped to create fear and concern about the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. In a study of the credibility gap faced by science, criteria are given for the competency of experts vis-a-vis specific problems. The most important aspect in arriving at the truth is felt to be the weighing of alternative decisions. (orig./HP) [de
McGeough, Ryan; Rudick, C. Kyle
In this study, we explore the heuristic decision-making skills of undergraduate students as they incorporate information into their persuasive speeches. We interviewed 26 students enrolled in an introductory communication course to ascertain their information literacy for vetting sources for their public speeches. From their responses, we…
This book offers a new perspective on human decision-making by comparing the established methods in decision science with innovative modelling at the level of neurons and neural interactions. The book presents a new generation of computer models, which can predict with astonishing accuracy individual economic choices when people make them by quick intuition rather than by effort. A vision for a new kind of social science is outlined, whereby neural models of emotion and cognition capture the dynamics of socioeconomic systems and virtual social networks. The exposition is approachable by experts as well as by advanced students. The author is an Associate Professor of Decision Science with a doctorate in Computational Neuroscience, and a former software consultant to banks in the City of London. .
Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina
Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate......, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect......) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; (2) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; (3) supporting transdisciplinary research; and (4) supporting education and outreach efforts....
Warg, L.E.; Bodin, L.
Full text of publication follows: in focus of much of today's research interest in risk communication, is the fact that the communities do not trust policy and decision makers such as politicians, government or industry people. This is especially serious in the years to come when we are expecting risk issues concerning for example the nuclear industry, global warming and hazardous waste, to be even higher on the political and social agenda all over the world. Despite the research efforts devoted to trust, society needs an in depth understanding of trust for conducting successful communication regarding environmental hazards. The present abstract is about an experimental study in psychology where focus has been on the possibility to use the multidimensional scaling technique to explore the characteristics people consider to be of importance when they say that certain persons are credible. In the study, a total of 61 students of the University of Oerebro, Sweden, were required to make comparisons of the similarity between 12 well-known swedish persons from politics science, media, industry, 'TV-world' and literature (two persons at a time), regarding their credibility when making statements about risks in society. In addition, the subjects were rating the importance of 19 factors for the credibility of a source. These 61 persons comprised three groups of students: pedagogists, business economists, and chemists. There were 61 % women and 39% men and the mean age was 23 years. The results will be analyzed using multidimensional scaling technique. Differences between the three groups will be analyzed and presented as well as those between men and women. In addition, the 19 factors will be discussed and considered when trying to label the dimensions accounted for by the multidimensional scaling technique. The result from this study will contribute to our understanding of important factors behind human judgments concerning trust and credibility. It will also point to a
Forty years of development in the science and technology of estimating and quantifying risk, of understanding of human behaviour and human rationale has made decision makers more informed. We are in a much better position now, than forty years ago in estimating probabilities, consequences, and
Foss, Kirsten; Foss, Nicolai J.
Credible delegation of discretion obtains when it is a rational strategy for managers not to overrule employee decisions that are based on delegated decision rights or renege on the level of delegated discretion (and this is common knowledge). Making delegation of discretion credible becomes a crucial issue when organizations want to sustain the advantages that may flow from delegation: Such advantages are dependent on motivated employees, and managerial overruling or reneging is harmful to m...
Koballa, Thomas R., Jr.; Shrigley, Robert L.
Tested was the effect of two persuasive messages presented by a credible communicator on the attitudes toward energy conservation of 180 preservice elementary teachers. The study asked the following questions: (1) Can attitudes toward energy conservation be positively changed with a brief, belief-laden communication? (2) Do positive attitude gains between pre- and post-tests, if any, dissipate within three weeks following the treatment? (3) Do the integrated and the nonintegrated communications affect energy attitudes of three subgroups (abstract, concrete differentiator and concrete thinkers) of the sample differently? The important finding was that both experimental treatments, integrated and nonintegrated, were equally effective and significantly more effective in attitude change than the control. Secondly, the finding that neither experimental treatment dissipated in effect, at least for three weeks, suggests some duration of brief treatment periods. And finally, the attitude changes are as likely to occur when concrete differentiators are presented with a nonintegrated as an integrated treatment, but abstract thinkers exposed to the integrated treatment and concrete thinkers exposed to the nonintegrated treatment sustain a changed attitude to a greater degree than other combinations of treatment and cognitive processing styles.
This proceedings volume highlights the state-of-the-art knowledge related to optimization, decisions science and problem solving methods, as well as their application in industrial and territorial systems. It includes contributions tackling these themes using models and methods based on continuous and discrete optimization, network optimization, simulation and system dynamics, heuristics, metaheuristics, artificial intelligence, analytics, and also multiple-criteria decision making. The number and the increasing size of the problems arising in real life require mathematical models and solution methods adequate to their complexity. There has also been increasing research interest in Big Data and related challenges. These challenges can be recognized in many fields and systems which have a significant impact on our way of living: design, management and control of industrial production of goods and services; transportation planning and traffic management in urban and regional areas; energy production and exploit...
T.J. Mills; T.M. Quigley; F.J. Everest
While many people interested in natural resources management propose science-based decisions, it is not clear what âscience-basedâ means. Science-based decisions are those that result from the full and complete consideration of the relevant science information. We offer five guidelines to focus the scientistâs contributions to science-based decisionmaking and use the...
Sbaffi, Laura; Rowley, Jennifer
Internet sources are becoming increasingly important in seeking health information, such that they may have a significant effect on health care decisions and outcomes. Hence, given the wide range of different sources of Web-based health information (WHI) from different organizations and individuals, it is important to understand how information seekers evaluate and select the sources that they use, and more specifically, how they assess their credibility and trustworthiness. The aim of this study was to review empirical studies on trust and credibility in the use of WHI. The article seeks to present a profile of the research conducted on trust and credibility in WHI seeking, to identify the factors that impact judgments of trustworthiness and credibility, and to explore the role of demographic factors affecting trust formation. On this basis, it aimed to identify the gaps in current knowledge and to propose an agenda for future research. A systematic literature review was conducted. Searches were conducted using a variety of combinations of the terms WHI, trust, credibility, and their variants in four multi-disciplinary and four health-oriented databases. Articles selected were published in English from 2000 onwards; this process generated 3827 unique records. After the application of the exclusion criteria, 73 were analyzed fully. Interest in this topic has persisted over the last 15 years, with articles being published in medicine, social science, and computer science and originating mostly from the United States and the United Kingdom. Documents in the final dataset fell into 3 categories: (1) those using trust or credibility as a dependent variable, (2) those using trust or credibility as an independent variable, and (3) studies of the demographic factors that influence the role of trust or credibility in WHI seeking. There is a consensus that website design, clear layout, interactive features, and the authority of the owner have a positive effect on trust or
Wilson, Christopher James
We describe specific curricular decisions employed at Butler University that have resulted in student achievement in the actuarial science major. The paper includes a discussion of how these decisions might be applied in the context of a new actuarial program.
Yu, Erica C; Sprenger, Amber M; Thomas, Rick P; Dougherty, Michael R
The ongoing discussion among scientists about null-hypothesis significance testing and Bayesian data analysis has led to speculation about the practices and consequences of "researcher degrees of freedom." This article advances this debate by asking the broader questions that we, as scientists, should be asking: How do scientists make decisions in the course of doing research, and what is the impact of these decisions on scientific conclusions? We asked practicing scientists to collect data in a simulated research environment, and our findings show that some scientists use data collection heuristics that deviate from prescribed methodology. Monte Carlo simulations show that data collection heuristics based on p values lead to biases in estimated effect sizes and Bayes factors and to increases in both false-positive and false-negative rates, depending on the specific heuristic. We also show that using Bayesian data collection methods does not eliminate these biases. Thus, our study highlights the little appreciated fact that the process of doing science is a behavioral endeavor that can bias statistical description and inference in a manner that transcends adherence to any particular statistical framework.
Full Text Available In our everyday lives we are surrounded by advertising in its various forms. Thus in the school context it is not surprising that the issue of advertising is addressed by different subjects, with the main foci being advertising-specific language, images and illustrations, use of stereotypes, strategies of persuasion etc. But advertising also contains factual information, being explicit or implicit, to make a campaign more credible and underline the effectiveness of a certain product. Dealing with the use of factual information in advertising critically is important for the consumer. For many products this information is derived from science and technology. Understanding the science in and behind advertising is necessary to become a critical consumer. Learning about the use of science in advertising also allows promoting societal-oriented communication and decision making skills in the science classroom. Unfortunately, only a few examples on the use of advertising in the science classroom exist. This paper provides a justification for the use of advertising in science education. Examples from the classroom developed in the framework of the PROFILES-project are provided by way of illustration.
Patterson, Eann A; Whelan, Maurice P
Computational models in biology and biomedical science are often constructed to aid people's understanding of phenomena or to inform decisions with socioeconomic consequences. Model credibility is the willingness of people to trust a model's predictions and is often difficult to establish for computational biology models. A 3 × 3 matrix has been proposed to allow such models to be categorised with respect to their testability and epistemic foundation in order to guide the selection of an appropriate process of validation to supply evidence to establish credibility. Three approaches to validation are identified that can be deployed depending on whether a model is deemed untestable, testable or lies somewhere in between. In the latter two cases, the validation process involves the quantification of uncertainty which is a key output. The issues arising due to the complexity and inherent variability of biological systems are discussed and the creation of 'digital twins' proposed as a means to alleviate the issues and provide a more robust, transparent and traceable route to model credibility and acceptance. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Carver, Jeffrey S.
The instructional decision-making processes of high school science teachers have not been well established in the literature. Several models for decision-making do exist in other teaching disciplines, business, computer game programming, nursing, and some fields of science. A model that incorporates differences in science teaching that is consistent with constructivist theory as opposed to conventional science teaching is useful in the current climate of standards-based instruction that includes an inquiry-based approach to teaching science. This study focuses on three aspects of the decision-making process. First, it defines what factors, both internal and external, influence high school science teacher decision-making. Second, those factors are analyzed further to determine what instructional decision-making processes are articulated or demonstrated by the participants. Third, by analyzing the types of decisions that are made in the classroom, the classroom learning environments established as a result of those instructional decisions are studied for similarities and differences between conventional and constructivist models. While the decision-making process for each of these teachers was not clearly articulated by the teachers themselves, the patterns that establish the process were clearly exhibited by the teachers. It was also clear that the classroom learning environments that were established were, at least in part, established as a result of the instructional decisions that were made in planning and implementation of instruction. Patterns of instructional decision-making were different for each teacher as a result of primary instructional goals that were different for each teacher. There were similarities between teachers who exhibited more constructivist epistemological tendencies as well as similarities between teachers who exhibited a more conventional epistemology. While the decisions that will result from these two camps may be different, the six step
Woodhouse, C. A.; Crimmins, M.; Ferguson, D. B.; Garfin, G. M.; Scott, C. A.
As society is confronted with population growth, limited resources, and the impacts of climate variability and change, it is vital that institutions of higher education promote the development of professionals who can work with decision-makers to incorporate scientific information into environmental planning and management. Skills for the communication of science are essential, but equally important is the ability to understand decision-making contexts and engage with resource managers and policy makers. It is increasingly being recognized that people who understand the linkages between science and decision making are crucial if science is to better support planning and policy. A new graduate-level seminar, "Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making," is a core course for a new post-baccalaureate certificate program, Connecting Environmental Science and Decision Making at the University of Arizona. The goal of the course is to provide students with a basic understanding of the dynamics between scientists and decision makers that result in scientific information being incorporated into environmental planning, policy, and management decisions. Through readings from the environmental and social sciences, policy, and planning literature, the course explores concepts including scientific information supply and demand, boundary organizations, co-production of knowledge, platforms for engagement, and knowledge networks. Visiting speakers help students understand some of the challenges of incorporating scientific information into planning and decision making within institutional and political contexts. The course also includes practical aspects of two-way communication via written, oral, and graphical presentations as well as through the interview process to facilitate the transfer of scientific information to decision makers as well as to broader audiences. We aspire to help students develop techniques that improve communication and
Smith, D.; Elliott, P.
The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between science and decision making yb reference to a series of debates in South Wales centring around a high-temperature icineration plant operated by Rechem
C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)
markdownabstractThe paper provides a brief review of the connecting literature in management information, decision sciences, and financial economics, and discusses some research that is related to the three cognate disciplines. Academics could develop theoretical models and subsequent
Lempert, Robert J.
Models of complex systems can capture much useful information but can be difficult to apply to real-world decision-making because the type of information they contain is often inconsistent with that required for traditional decision analysis. New approaches, which use inductive reasoning over large ensembles of computational experiments, now make possible systematic comparison of alternative policy options using models of complex systems. This article describes Computer-Assisted Reasoning, an...
Lempert, Robert J
Models of complex systems can capture much useful information but can be difficult to apply to real-world decision-making because the type of information they contain is often inconsistent with that required for traditional decision analysis. New approaches, which use inductive reasoning over large ensembles of computational experiments, now make possible systematic comparison of alternative policy options using models of complex systems. This article describes Computer-Assisted Reasoning, an approach to decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty that is ideally suited to applying complex systems to policy analysis. The article demonstrates the approach on the policy problem of global climate change, with a particular focus on the role of technology policies in a robust, adaptive strategy for greenhouse gas abatement.
Full Text Available We examined in two empirical studies how situational and personal aspects of uncertainty influence laypeople’s understanding of the uncertainty of scientific information, with focus on the detection of tentativeness and perception of scientific credibility. In the first study (N = 48, we investigated the impact of a perceived conflict due to contradicting information as a situational, text-inherent aspect of uncertainty. The aim of the second study (N = 61 was to explore the role of general self-efficacy as an intra-personal uncertainty factor. In Study 1, participants read one of two versions of an introductory text in a between-group design. This text provided them with an overview about the neurosurgical procedure of deep brain stimulation (DBS. The text expressed a positive attitude toward DBS in one experimental condition or focused on the negative aspects of this method in the other condition. Then participants in both conditions read the same text that dealt with a study about DBS as experimental treatment in a small sample of patients with major depression. Perceived conflict between the two texts was found to increase the perception of tentativeness and to decrease the perception of scientific credibility, implicating that text-inherent aspects have significant effects on critical appraisal. The results of Study 2 demonstrated that participants with higher general self-efficacy detected the tentativeness to a lesser degree and assumed a higher level of scientific credibility, indicating a more naïve understanding of scientific information. This appears to be contradictory to large parts of previous findings that showed positive effects of high self-efficacy on learning. Both studies showed that perceived tentativeness and perceived scientific credibility of medical information contradicted each other. We conclude that there is a need for supporting laypeople in understanding the uncertainty of scientific information and that
Jalal, Hawre; Pechlivanoglou, Petros; Krijkamp, Eline; Alarid-Escudero, Fernando; Enns, Eva; Hunink, M G Myriam
As the complexity of health decision science applications increases, high-level programming languages are increasingly adopted for statistical analyses and numerical computations. These programming languages facilitate sophisticated modeling, model documentation, and analysis reproducibility. Among the high-level programming languages, the statistical programming framework R is gaining increased recognition. R is freely available, cross-platform compatible, and open source. A large community of users who have generated an extensive collection of well-documented packages and functions supports it. These functions facilitate applications of health decision science methodology as well as the visualization and communication of results. Although R's popularity is increasing among health decision scientists, methodological extensions of R in the field of decision analysis remain isolated. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of existing R functionality that is applicable to the various stages of decision analysis, including model design, input parameter estimation, and analysis of model outputs.
Honoré, Peggy A; Fos, Peter J; Smith, Torney; Riley, Michael; Kramarz, Kim
The allocation of resources for public health programming is a complicated and daunting responsibility. Financial decision-making processes within public health agencies are especially difficult when not supported with techniques for prioritizing and ranking alternatives. This article presents a case study of a decision analysis software model that was applied to the process of identifying funding priorities for public health services in the Spokane Regional Health District. Results on the use of this decision support system provide insights into how decision science models, which have been used for decades in business and industry, can be successfully applied to public health budgeting as a means of strengthening agency financial management processes.
having helped some clients. Over the past half century, psychotherapy has faced a series of crises concerned with its transformation from an art to a...clinical science . These include validation of the effectiveness of various forms of therapy, validating elements of treatment programs and
White, M. J.
The possible impact on public policy and organizational decision making of operations research/management science (OR/MS) is discussed. Criticisms based on the assumption that OR/MS will have influence on decision making and criticisms based on the assumption that it will have no influence are described. New directions in the analysis of analysis and in thinking about policy making are also considered.
Autrey-Hunley, C.; Kuhn, W.R.; Kasischke, E.; Trichel, M.T.; Coppola, R.
Effective environmental decision making depends upon the ability to predict physical changes in the environment, societal responses to these changes, and how both the physical changes and societal responses will be affected by changes in government regulations, public perceptions and the environment. Technological advances in remote sensing have provided a wealth of earth science data necessary to study global change problems; the Earth Observatory System will provide an unprecedented data source in the late 1990's. The Consortium for an International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) will combine earth science data (both satellite and ground-based) with data on the social sciences (e.g., economics, demographics, public health) to support informed policy decisions and to transfer knowledge on global change and its causes to the public.
Isaksson, Maria; Jørgensen, Poul Erik Flyvholm
to giving assurance of their expertise, trustworthiness and empathy, thus confirming our overall expectation that corporate credibility discourse is relatively uniform from a European perspective. However, contrary to our assumptions, the results of our study show that PR credibility discourse demonstrates...
Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Runge, Michael C.; Thompson, Frank R.; McNulty, Steven; Cleaves, David; Tomosy, Monica; Fisher, Larry A.; Andrew, Bliss
Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring the preferred alternative with adaptive management feedbacks. We list a wide array of models, techniques, and tools available for each stage, and provide three case studies of their selected use in National Forest land management and project plans. Successful use of SDM involves participation by decision-makers, analysts, scientists, and stakeholders. We suggest specific areas for training and instituting SDM to foster transparency, rigor, clarity, and inclusiveness in formal decision processes regarding management of national forests.
Friedl, L. A.; Cox, L.
The NASA Applied Sciences Program collaborates with organizations to discover and demonstrate applications of NASA Earth science research and technology to decision making. The desired outcome is for public and private organizations to use NASA Earth science products in innovative applications for sustained, operational uses to enhance their decisions. In addition, the program facilitates the end-user feedback to Earth science to improve products and demands for research. The Program thus serves as a bridge between Earth science research and technology and the applied organizations and end-users with management, policy, and business responsibilities. Since 2002, the Applied Sciences Program has sponsored over 115 applications-oriented projects to apply Earth observations and model products to decision making activities. Projects have spanned numerous topics - agriculture, air quality, water resources, disasters, public health, aviation, etc. The projects have involved government agencies, private companies, universities, non-governmental organizations, and foreign entities in multiple types of teaming arrangements. The paper will examine this set of applications projects and present specific examples of successful use of Earth science in decision making. The paper will discuss scientific, organizational, and management factors that contribute to or impede the integration of the Earth science research in policy and management. The paper will also present new methods the Applied Sciences Program plans to implement to improve linkages between science and end users.
Wildland fire management in the United States has historically been a challenging and complex program governed by a multitude of factors including situational status, objectives, operational capability, science and technology, and changes and advances in all these factors. The improvement and advancement of risk-informed decision making has the potential to improve...
Science is key to EPA’s decision-making. EPA scientists review these data to determine whether to register a pesticide product or use and any need for specific restrictions. EPA maintains a transparent, public process in assessing potential human health ri
C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)
textabstractThis paper provides a review of some connecting literature in Decision Sciences, Economics, Finance, Business, Computing, and Big Data. We then discuss some research that is related to the six cognate disciplines. Academics could develop theoretical models and subsequent
Siegel, Marcelle A.
One of the most important challenges educators have is teaching students how to make decisions about complex issues. In this study, methods designed to enhance students' decision-making skills and attitudes were investigated. An issue-oriented science curriculum was partly replaced with activities designed by the experimenter. The first objective of the study was to examine the effects of an instructional method to increase students' use of relevant scientific evidence in their decisions. The second goal of the research was to test whether the instructional activities could promote students' beliefs that science is relevant to them, because attitudes have been shown to affect students' performance and persistence (Schommer, 1994). Third, the study was designed to determine whether the instructional activities would affect students' beliefs that their intelligence is not fixed but can grow; this question is based on Dweck and Leggett's (1988) definition of two orientations toward intelligence---entity theorists and incremental theorists (Dweck & Leggett, 1988; Dweck & Henderson, 1989). Two urban high-school classrooms participated in this study. Tenth graders examined scientific materials about current issues involving technology and society. Instructional materials on decision making were prepared for one class of students to enhance their regular issue-oriented course, Science and Sustainability. A computer program, called Convince Me (Schank, Ranney & Hoadley, 1996), provided scaffolding for making an evidence-based decision. The experimental group's activities also included pen-and-paper lessons on decision making and the effect of experience on the structure of the brain. The control class continued to engage in Science and Sustainability decision-making activities during the time the experimental class completed the treatment. The control group did not show significant improvement on decision-making tasks, and the experimental group showed marginally
Huang, Jung; Tien, Yu-Chuan; Lin, Hsuan-Te; Liu, Tzu-Ming; Tung, Ching-Pin
Climate change creates more challenges for water resources management. Due to the lack of sufficient precipitation in Taiwan in fall of 2014, many cities and counties suffered from water shortage during early 2015. Many companies in Hsinchu Science Park were significantly influenced and realized that they need a decision support tool to help them managing water resources. Therefore, a customized computer program was developed, which is capable of predicting the future status of public water supply system and water storage of factories when the water rationing is announced by the government. This program presented in this study for drought decision support (DDSS) is a customized model for a semiconductor company in the Hsinchu Science Park. The DDSS is programmed in Java which is a platform-independent language. System requirements are any PC with the operating system above Windows XP and an installed Java SE Runtime Environment 7. The DDSS serves two main functions. First function is to predict the future storage of Baoshan Reservoir and Second Baoshan Reservoir, so to determine the time point of water use restriction in Hsinchu Science Park. Second function is to use the results to help the company to make decisions to trigger their response plans. The DDSS can conduct real-time scenario simulations calculating the possible storage of water tank for each factory with pre-implementation and post-implementation of those response plans. In addition, DDSS can create reports in Excel to help decision makers to compare results between different scenarios.
Some of the design issues that arose during the development of the EUVE science payload and solutions to the problems involved are examined. In particular, attention is given to the use of parallel and serial busses, the selection of the the ROM approach for software storage and execution, implementation of memory error detection and correction, and the selection of command structures. The early design decisions paid off in the timely delivery of the scientific payload and in the successful completion of the survey phase of the EUVE science mission.
Eaton, Mitchell; Fuller, Angela K.; Johnson, Fred A.; Hare, M. P.; Stedman, Richard C.; Sanderson, E.W.; Solecki, W. D.; Waldman, J.R.; Paris, A. S.
This book highlights the growing interest in management interventions designed to enhance the resilience of the Jamaica Bay socio-ecological system. Effective management, whether the focus is on managing biological processes or human behavior or (most likely) both, requires decision makers to anticipate how the managed system will respond to interventions (i.e., via predictions or projections). In systems characterized by many interacting components and high uncertainty, making probabilistic predictions is often difficult and requires careful thinking not only about system dynamics, but also about how management objectives are specified and the analytic method used to select the preferred action(s). Developing a clear statement of the problem(s) and articulation of management objectives is often best achieved by including input from managers, scientists and other stakeholders affected by the decision through a process of joint problem framing (Marcot and others 2012; Keeney and others 1990). Using a deliberate, coherent and transparent framework for deciding among management alternatives to best meet these objectives then ensures a greater likelihood for successful intervention. Decision science provides the theoretical and practical basis for developing this framework and applying decision analysis methods for making complex decisions under uncertainty and risk.
Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Krishnamurti, Tamar; Davis, Alex; Schwartz, Daniel; Fischhoff, Baruch
The social and behavioural sciences are critical for informing climate- and energy-related policies. We describe a decision science approach to applying those sciences. It has three stages: formal analysis of decisions, characterizing how well-informed actors should view them; descriptive research, examining how people actually behave in such circumstances; and interventions, informed by formal analysis and descriptive research, designed to create attractive options and help decision-makers choose among them. Each stage requires collaboration with technical experts (for example, climate scientists, geologists, power systems engineers and regulatory analysts), as well as continuing engagement with decision-makers. We illustrate the approach with examples from our own research in three domains related to mitigating climate change or adapting to its effects: preparing for sea-level rise, adopting smart grid technologies in homes, and investing in energy efficiency for office buildings. The decision science approach can facilitate creating climate- and energy-related policies that are behaviourally informed, realistic and respectful of the people whom they seek to aid.
Consumer Health Information Websites with High Visual Design Ratings Likely to Be also Highly Rated for Perceived Credibility. A Review of: Robins, D., Holmes, J., & Stansbury, M. (2010. Consumer health information on the web: The relationship of visual design and perceptions of credibility. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 61(1, 13-19.
Full Text Available Objective – To answer two research questions: 1 What is the relationship between the visual design of a consumer health information web site and perceptions of the credibility of information found on it? 2 Is there a relationship between brand recognition, visual design preference, and credibility judgments?Design – Qualitative (correlation of rating of response to stimulus and quantitative (credibility coding of participant commentsSetting – Not stated; assumed to be academic institutions in the United States.Subjects – Thirty-four participants over the age of 35 (34 for statistical power and age over 35 on the hypothesis that this age group is most likely to seek health information on the Internet.Methods – Screen shots of 31 consumer health information sites chosen from the results of a Google search using the term “consumer health information” were converted to slide format and shown to participants. The 31 sites included 12 of the top ranked consumer health information sites derived from three sources: the Consumer and Patient Health Information Section (CAPHIS of the Medical Library Association (MLA, the MLA itself, and Consumer Reports. Participants were read and shown a script explaining the process prior to being asked to view and rate the 31 sites. Participants were first shown a blank slide with a crosshair to focus attention. Then a stimulus slide was shown for 2.8 seconds. A blank black screen was shown while they determined their rating. Participants were first asked to rate the visual design and aesthetics of the 31 web sites using a rating scale of -4 to -1 for negative judgments and +1 to +4 for positive judgments. Then they were asked to remember why they had made positive or negative ratings and why some web sites were preferred to others. The process was repeated with the slides re-ordered, and participants were asked to rate the credibility of the sites using the same rating scales. Upon completion
Greenberger, Leonard S.
In hostile situations, a communicator's goal is to establish and maintain trust and credibility with the audience. School business officials need the special skills and techniques of what's known as "risk communication." Few people are natural risk communicators. Those who do it well honed their skills over many years spent in hostile…
Lucassen, T.; Schmettow, Martin; Wiering, Caro H.; Pieters, Jules M.; Boer, Henk
In this chapter, ongoing research on trust in Wikipedia is used as a case study to illustrate the design process of a support tool for Wikipedia, following the ASCE-model. This research is performed from a cognitive perspective and aims at users actively evaluating the credibility of information on
Full Text Available In nonlife actuarial science, credibility models are one of the main methods of experience ratemaking. Bühlmann-Straub credibility model can be expressed as a special case of linear mixed models (LMMs with the underlying assumption of normality. In this paper, we extend the assumption of Bühlmann-Straub model to include Poisson and negative binomial distributions as they are more appropriate for describing the distribution of a number of claims. By using the framework of generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs, we obtain the generalized credibility premiums that contain as particular cases another credibility premium in the literature. Compared to generalized linear mixed models, our extended credibility models also have an advantage in that the credibility factor falls into the range from 0 to 1. The performance of our models in comparison with an existing model in the literature is also evaluated through numerical studies, which shows that our approach produces premium estimates close to the optima. In addition, our proposed model can also be applied to the most commonly used ratemaking approach, namely, the net, the optimal Bonus-Malus system.
Siegel, David A.; Young, Joseph K.
We present two simulations designed to convey the strategic nature of terrorism and counterterrorism. The first is a simulated hostage crisis, designed primarily to illustrate the concepts of credible commitment and costly signaling. The second explores high-level decision making of both a terrorist group and the state, and is designed to…
Li Lian Ong
Full Text Available Credibility is the bedrock of any crisis stress test. The use of stress tests to manage systemic risk was introduced by the U.S. authorities in 2009 in the form of the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program. Since then, supervisory authorities in other jurisdictions have also conducted similar exercises. In some of those cases, the design and implementation of certain elements of the framework have been criticized for their lack of credibility. This paper proposes a set of guidelines for constructing an effective crisis stress test. It combines financial markets impact studies of previous exercises with relevant case study information gleaned from those experiences to identify the key elements and to formulate their appropriate design. Pertinent concepts, issues and nuances particular to crisis stress testing are also discussed. The findings may be useful for country authorities seeking to include stress tests in their crisis management arsenal, as well as for the design of crisis programs.
The maximum credible beam power is defined as the highest credible average beam power that the accelerator can deliver to the point in question, given the laws of physics, the beam line design, and assuming all protection devices have failed. For a new accelerator project, the official maximum credible beam power is determined by project staff in consultation with the Radiation Physics Department, after examining the arguments and evidence presented by the appropriate accelerator physicist(s) and beam line engineers. The definitive parameter becomes part of the project's safety envelope. This technical note will first review the studies that were done for the Gun Test Facility (GTF) at SSRL, where a photoinjector similar to the one proposed for the LCLS is being tested. In Section 3 the maximum charge out of the gun for a single rf pulse is calculated. In Section 4, PARMELA simulations are used to track the beam from the gun to the end of the photoinjector. Finally in Section 5 the beam through the matching section and injected into Linac-1 is discussed
The first principle of an effective public affairs program on nuclear energy is credibility. If credibility is lacking, no matter how artful the message, it will not be persuasive. There has long been a problem in the United States. For years much of the industry followed the practice, when there was an event at a nuclear power plant that resulted in an unplanned release of radioactivity, to tell the public there was 'no release' if in fact the release was below the technical specifications of what the NRC mandates as being safe. The NRC is a safety regulator. It can tell nuclear power plant operators what to do, or not do, when it comes to safety, but doesn't have the right to tell them what to say to the public. The example of an emergency exercise and the NRC press release on that occasion showed the direction how companies could be influenced to behave in order to prevent such avoidably negative news coverage, i.e. attaining credibility when public anxiety is concerned
This study explores how concerns about the environment have escalated in the past three decades from being peripheral to that of a mainstream social movement. Most environmental concerns stem from the deployment of technologies where technical expertise is essential to effective participation in the decision-making process. The manner in which the current policy for the disposal of low-level radioactive waste was devised and passed by Congress provides the information base through which the role of citizen groups in the decision-making process in a science-intensive culture is explored, as they seek to overcome the adverse environmental impacts and economic inequities of this Act. The actual process by which citizens have confronted this current flawed policy is described, which includes how technical expertise from various sources made the citizens' case credible and effective. Several existing and theoretical models of citizen participation are described. Recommendations and conclusions are presented briefly, and a recommended model based on the concept of sustainable development is proposed
Jones, L.; Bwarie, J.; Pearce, I.
The gap between science and decision making in our society can be large and multi-faceted, involving communication, process, cultural and even subconscious differences. In sweeping generalization, scientists reject anecdotes, focus on uncertainty and details, and expect conflict as part of the scientific process, while non-scientists respond to stories, want certainty and the big picture, and see conflict as a reason to reject the message. Bridging this gap often requires ongoing collaboration to find the intersection of three independent domains: what science can provide, the technical information decision makers need to make the most effective choices and what information decision makers need to motivate action. For ten years, the USGS has experimented with improving the usefulness of its science through the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Project and its predecessor, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California. Through leading and participating in these activities, we have recognized 3 steps that have been essential to successful partnerships between scientists and decision makers. First, determining what makes for a successful product cannot be done in isolation by either scientists or users. The users may want something science cannot produce (e.g., accurate short-term earthquake predictions), while the scientists can fail to see that the product they know how to make may not be relevant to the decisions that need to be made. Real discussions with real exchange and absorption of information on both sides makes for the most useful products. Second, most scientific results need work beyond what belongs in a journal to create a product that can be used. This is not just a different style of communication, but analyses that focus on the community's local questions rather than on scientific advances. Third, probabilities of natural hazards almost never motivate action to mitigate. The probabilities are usually low on human time
The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...
.... Although information content, rank status, and source credibility have received much attention by researchers in command and control decision-making, cultural variations in these factors have seldom been studied...
Ackermann, Mark R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Most national policy decisions are complex with a variety of stakeholders, disparate interests and the potential for unintended consequences. While a number of analytical tools exist to help decision makers sort through the mountains of data and myriad of options, decision support teams are increasingly turning to complexity science for improved analysis and better insight into the potential impact of policy decisions. While complexity science has great potential, it has only proven useful in limited case s and when properly applied. In advance of more widespread use, a national - level effort to refine complexity science and more rigorously establish its technical underpinnings is recommended.
In the credibility crisis, a generalized state of conflicting cognitions is probably prevalent, along with possible individual and social pathologies. These cognitive conflicts and emotional traumas are linked to both the characteristics of Chernobyl as a human-made disaster and the specific nature of Chernobyl as a nuclear disaster. Three major elements as constituents of this nature are identified: The rupture of a social contract, the loss of a socially valued object, and the sudden removal of established distances. Further research and basic information are needed in this area where little specific observation is reported. A better grasp of the impact of nuclear energy on our societies can lead to better adapted policy, increased local and social solidarity, more decentralized initiative and risk management, and better organized primary prevention in nuclear disaster. (orig./DG)
Parikh, S.C.; Gass, S.I.
The nature of public decision-making and resource allocation is such that many complex interactions can best be examined and understood by quantitative analysis. Most organizations do not possess the totality of models and needed analytical skills to perform detailed and systematic quantitative analysis. Hence, the need for coordinated, multi-organization studies that support public decision-making has grown in recent years. This trend is expected not only to continue, but to increase. This paper describes the authors' views on the process of multi-model analysis based on their participation in an analytical exercise, the ORNL/MITRE Study. One of the authors was the exercise coordinator. During the study, the authors were concerned with the issue of measuring and conveying credibility of the analysis. This work led them to identify several key determinants, described in this paper, that could be used to develop a rating of credibility.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Wrong decisions during the missions can lead to an unsafe condition or immediate failure, while correct decisions can help continue the missions even from faulty...
Isaacs, T. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California (United States)
This paper outlines the science, politics and the decision making process in implementing a nuclear fuel management program. It discusses the issues in the light of Canada's imminent decision on nuclear fuel management. The paper discusses the technical as well as the institutional challenge in nuclear waste management. It discusses some of the key elements of the Canadian approach and concludes with some key recommendation in the way forward.
Full Text Available This study aims to determine students’ decision making strategy to answer TIMSS science reasoning test in cognitive reasoning domain. This research is quantitative descriptive research. The result shows that students tend to use compensatory strategy for decision making in solving multiple-choice questions and use rational category to answer essay questions. The result shows that more than half of students have been able to answer the questions TIMSS science tests correctly.
Morgan Grove; Daniel L. Childers; Michael Galvin; Sarah J. Hines; Tischa Munoz-Erickson; Erika S. Svendsen
To promote urban sustainability and resilience, there is an increasing demand for actionable science that links science and decision making based on socialâecological knowledge. Approaches, frameworks, and practices for such actionable science are needed and have only begun to emerge. We propose that approaches based on the co- design and co- production of knowledge...
In a simple macro-economic model, where the monetary authorities process superior information about a real shocks, the scope for an active stabilization policy is shown to depend on the credibility of the policy maker. Lack of credibility increases the need for an active stabilization policy...
Levy Nahum, Tami; Ben-Chaim, David; Azaiza, Ibtesam; Herskovitz, Orit; Zoller, Uri
Today's society is continuously coping with sustainability-related complex issues in the Science-Technology-Environment-Society (STES) interfaces. In those contexts, the need and relevance of the development of students' higher-order cognitive skills (HOCS) such as question-asking, critical-thinking, problem-solving and decision-making capabilities within science teaching have been argued by several science educators for decades. Three main objectives guided this study: (1) to establish "base lines" for HOCS capabilities of 10th grade students (n = 264) in the Israeli educational system; (2) to delineate within this population, two different groups with respect to their decision-making capability, science-oriented (n = 142) and non-science (n = 122) students, Groups A and B, respectively; and (3) to assess the pre-post development/change of students' decision-making capabilities via STES-oriented HOCS-promoting curricular modules entitled Science, Technology and Environment in Modern Society (STEMS). A specially developed and validated decision-making questionnaire was used for obtaining a research-based response to the guiding research questions. Our findings suggest that a long-term persistent application of purposed decision-making, promoting teaching strategies, is needed in order to succeed in affecting, positively, high-school students' decision-making ability. The need for science teachers' involvement in the development of their students' HOCS capabilities is thus apparent.
We present a decision support framework for science-based assessment and multi-stakeholder deliberation. The framework consists of two parts: a DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses) analysis to identify the important causal relationships among anthropogenic environ...
Stock of Naturalistic Decision Making," Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 14, No. 5, 2001, pp. 331-352. Llinas, James, Ann Bisantz, Colin Drury ...on aided adversarial decisionmaking (Llinas, Bisantz, Drury , Song, and Jian, 1998). Cohen argues for a situation-specific trust model: The problem of...and P. Fishwick, eds., 2000, pp. 1739-1746. Camerer, Colin F., "Individual Decision Making," in John H. Kagel and Alvin E. Roth, eds., Handbook of
Hanusch, Marek; Keefer, Philip; Vlaicu, Razvan
What explains significant variation across countries in the use of vote buying instead of campaign promises to secure voter support? This paper explicitly models the tradeoff parties face between engaging in vote buying and making campaign promises, and explores the distributional consequences of this decision, in a setting where party credibility can vary. When parties are less credible they spend more on vote buying and target vote buying more heavily toward groups that do not believe campa...
The study used a modified 'multiple worlds' model to investigate how the various worlds of the students influenced their science subject choice. ... Students also reported building enough self-confidence to enrol in physical science by the encouragement they received through informal contact with physics lecturers.
Bozeman, Barry; Landsbergen, David
Two competing approaches to policy analysis are distinguished: a credibility approach, and a truth approach. According to the credibility approach, the policy analyst's role is to search for plausible argument rather than truth. Each approach has pragmatic tradeoffs in fulfilling the goal of providing usable knowledge to decision makers. (TJH)
The past credibility of the AEC, ERDA, and NRC, along with the present credibility of DOE and NRC, are questioned. The results of voter responses to a moratorium on expansion of nuclear power are linked to the question of past credibility of these Federal agencies. It is proposed that the future of nuclear power be linked directly to the Executive Branch of the government via a new bureaucracy, a Waste Management Authority. This new bureaucracy would be completely separated from the construction or licensing phase of nuclear power, except it would have final say over any nuclear power expansion pending an acceptable solution to the waste reprocessing question
Krijkamp, Eline M; Alarid-Escudero, Fernando; Enns, Eva A; Jalal, Hawre J; Hunink, M G Myriam; Pechlivanoglou, Petros
Microsimulation models are becoming increasingly common in the field of decision modeling for health. Because microsimulation models are computationally more demanding than traditional Markov cohort models, the use of computer programming languages in their development has become more common. R is a programming language that has gained recognition within the field of decision modeling. It has the capacity to perform microsimulation models more efficiently than software commonly used for decision modeling, incorporate statistical analyses within decision models, and produce more transparent models and reproducible results. However, no clear guidance for the implementation of microsimulation models in R exists. In this tutorial, we provide a step-by-step guide to build microsimulation models in R and illustrate the use of this guide on a simple, but transferable, hypothetical decision problem. We guide the reader through the necessary steps and provide generic R code that is flexible and can be adapted for other models. We also show how this code can be extended to address more complex model structures and provide an efficient microsimulation approach that relies on vectorization solutions.
Maturo, Antonio; Hošková-Mayerová, Šárka; Kacprzyk, Janusz
The book provides a comprehensive and timely report on the topic of decision making and decision analysis in economics and the social sciences. The various contributions included in the book, selected using a peer review process, present important studies and research conducted in various countries around the globe. The majority of these studies are concerned with the analysis, modeling and formalization of the behavior of groups or committees that are in charge of making decisions of social and economic importance. Decisions in these contexts have to meet precise coherence standards and achieve a significant degree of sharing, consensus and acceptance, even in uncertain and fuzzy environments. This necessitates the confluence of several research fields, such as foundations of social choice and decision making, mathematics, complexity, psychology, sociology and economics. A large spectrum of problems that may be encountered during decision making and decision analysis in the areas of economics and the social ...
To educate the general public and their opinion leaders in radioactive waste management is imperative to reach the decision where to site the Swedish repository for spent nuclear fuel. After analyzing existing opinion figures over the years, new approaches have been made in Sweden with less technical messages. By using touring exhibitions, manned by people with hands-on experience of waste management, a two-way communication climate has been reached
Shanks, Wayne M
...) National Security Strategy (NSS). The public's mistrust of the United States is born out of a widespread misunderstanding and mistrust of its policies and a lack of USG credibility especially in the Greater Middle East...
Renn, O.; Levine, D.
The paper attempts to summarize the major findings of the psychological and sociological literature on trust and credibility, and to apply these findings to the specific arena of risk communication. A few guidelines for risk communication that appear appropriate for the social and institutional context in which the risk debate takes place are presented. The case studies of credibility of nuclear energy, biotechnology, medicine, and aviation are discussed. (DG)
Calvo, Guillermo; Vegh, Carlos
This paper analyzes stabilization policy under predetermined exchange rates in a cash-in-advance, staggered-prices model. Under full credibility, a reduction in the rate of devaluation results in an immediate and permanent reduction in the inflation rate, with no effect on output or consumption. In contrast, a non-credible stabilization results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The inflation rate of home goods remains above the rate of devaluation throughout...
Allio, Lorenzo; Ballantine, Bruce; Meads, Richard
Used well, science provides effective ways of identifying potential risks, protecting citizens, and using resources wisely. It enables government decisions to be based on evidence and provides a foundation for a rule-based framework that supports global trade. To ensure that the best available science becomes a key input in the decisions made by EU institutions, this abridged version of a working paper produced for the European Policy Centre, a leading, independent think tank, considers how science is currently used in the policy and decision-making processes of the EU, what the limitations of scientific evidence are, and how a risk assessment process based on scientific 'good practices' can be advantageous. Finally, the paper makes recommendations on how to improve the use of science by EU institutions.
Grandin, Jean-Francois; Moulin, Caroline
This paper presents some important differences that exist between theories, which allow the uncertainty management in data fusion. The main comparative results illustrated in this paper are the followings: Incompatibility between decisions got from probabilities and credibilities is highlighted. In the dynamic frame, as remarked in  or , belief and plausibility of Dempster-Shafer model do not frame the Bayesian probability. This framing can however be obtained by the Modified Dempster-Shafer approach. It also can be obtained in the Bayesian framework either by simulation techniques, or with a studentization. The uncommitted in the Dempster-Shafer way, e.g. the mass accorded to the ignorance, gives a mechanism similar to the reliability in the Bayesian model. Uncommitted mass in Dempster-Shafer theory or reliability in Bayes theory act like a filter that weakens extracted information, and improves robustness to outliners. So, it is logical to observe on examples like the one presented particularly by D.M. Buede, a faster convergence of a Bayesian method that doesn't take into account the reliability, in front of Dempster-Shafer method which uses uncommitted mass. But, on Bayesian masses, if reliability is taken into account, at the same level that the uncommited, e.g. F=1-m, we observe an equivalent rate for convergence. When Dempster-Shafer and Bayes operator are informed by uncertainty, faster or lower convergence can be exhibited on non Bayesian masses. This is due to positive or negative synergy between information delivered by sensors. This effect is a direct consequence of non additivity when considering non Bayesian masses. Unknowledge of the prior in bayesian techniques can be quickly compensated by information accumulated as time goes on by a set of sensors. All these results are presented on simple examples, and developed when necessary.
Timm, K.; Kettle, N.; Buxbaum, T. M.; Trainor, S.; Walsh, J. E.; York, A.
Investigations of the processes for developing actionable science and supporting partnerships between researchers and practitioners has received increasing attention over the past decade. These studies highlight the importance of leveraging existing relationships and trust, supporting iterative interactions, and dedicating sufficient financial and human capital to the development of usable climate science. However, significant gaps remain in our understanding of how to build capacity for more effective partnerships. To meet these ends, the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP) is developing a series of trainings for scientists and practitioners to build capacity for producing actionable science. This process includes three phases: scoping and development, training, and evaluation. This presentation reports on the scoping and development phase of the project, which draws on an extensive web-based search of past and present capacity building and training activities, document analysis, and surveys of trainers. A synthesis of successful formats (e.g., training, placements, etc.), curriculum topics (e.g., climate science, interpersonal communication), and approaches to recruitment and curriculum development will be outlined. We then outline our approach for co-developing trainings in three different sectors, which engages other boundary organizations to leverage trust and exiting network connections to tailor the training activities. Through this effort we ultimately seek to understand how the processes and outcomes for co-developing trainings in actionable science vary across sectors and their implications for building capacity.
Full Text Available Students of history and philosophy of science courses at my University are either naïve robust realists or naïve relativists in relation to science and technology. The first group absorbs from culture stereotypical conceptions, such as the value-free character of the scientific method, that science and technology are impervious to history or ideology, and that science and religion are always at odds. The second believes science and technology were selected arbitrarily by ideologues to have privileged world views of reality to the detriment of other interpretations. These deterministic outlooks must be challenged to make students aware of the social importance of their future roles, be they as scientists and engineers or as science and technology policy decision makers. The University as Decision Center (DC not only reproduces the social by teaching standard solutions to well-defined problems but also provides information regarding conflict resolution and the epistemological, individual, historical, social, and political mechanisms that help create new science and technology. Interdisciplinary research prepares students for roles that require science and technology literacy, but raises methodological issues in the context of the classroom as it increases uncertainty with respect to apparently self-evident beliefs about scientific and technological practices.
Significant advances in science should be given to addressing the needs of society and the historical context of the territories. Although technological developments that began with modernity and the industrial revolution allowed human beings to control the resources of nature to put to your service without limits, it is clear that the crisis of the prevailing development models manifest themselves in many ways but with three common denominators: environmental degradation, social injustice and extreme poverty. Consequently, today should not be possible to think a breakthrough in the development of science without addressing global environmental problems and the deep social injustices that increase at all scales under the gaze, impassively in many occasions, of formal science.
Killeen, Peter R
Traditional null hypothesis significance testing does not yield the probability of the null or its alternative and, therefore, cannot logically ground scientific decisions. The decision theory proposed here calculates the expected utility of an effect on the basis of (1) the probability of replicating it and (2) a utility function on its size. It takes significance tests--which place all value on the replicability of an effect and none on its magnitude--as a special case, one in which the cost of a false positive is revealed to be an order of magnitude greater than the value of a true positive. More realistic utility functions credit both replicability and effect size, integrating them for a single index of merit. The analysis incorporates opportunity cost and is consistent with alternate measures of effect size, such as r2 and information transmission, and with Bayesian model selection criteria. An alternate formulation is functionally equivalent to the formal theory, transparent, and easy to compute.
Gill, Puneet Singh
The desires of young people and especially young bodies are constructed at the intersections of policies that set the parameters of sex education policies, the embodied experiences of students in classrooms, and the way bodies are discussed in the complex language of science. Moreover, more research points to the lack of scientifically and…
Helsloot, Ira; Groenendaal, Jelle
This study uses the naturalistic decision-making (NDM) perspective to examine how Dutch forensic team leaders (i.e., the officers in charge of criminal forensic research from the crime scene until the use of laboratory assistance) make decisions in real-life settings and identifies the contextual factors that might influence those decisions. First, a focus group interview was conducted to identify four NDM mechanisms in day-to-day forensic decision making. Second, a serious game was conducted to examine the influence of three of these contextual mechanisms. The results uncovered that forensic team leaders (i) were attracted to obtain further information when more information was initially made available, (ii) were likely to devote more attention to emotionally charged cases, and (iii) used not only forensic evidence in the decision making but also tactical, unverified information of the police inquiry. Interestingly, the measured contextual influences did not deviate significantly from a control group of laypeople. © 2011 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.
Full Text Available The important managerial decision-making and the development of policies, strategies, internal normative acts and procedures must be solid grounded for efficient achieving of their objectives. To this end, the evidence-based approach uses various types of evidence, a leading role having those scientific, and the critical thinking. The evidence from behavioral sciences is especially important when the decisions objectives involve behavioral elements. They also help to ensure the rationality of any decision-making process. The concern for the use of behavioral sciences research in the decision-making preceded the occurrence of evidence-based approach. The increased knowledge fund of organizations, the access to the best practices and to the relevant scientific research findings represent only the initial stages of the evidence-based approach implementation and functioning. The ensuring of their effective use calls for special skills training among staff, the creation of tools and organizational mechanisms and of a facilitating organizational culture. This paper argues the need to integrate two approaches that promote the decision-making based on scientific evidence, the evidence-based approach and the use of behavioral and social sciences in the decision-making, to potentiate the contribution of the behavioral sciences to the increasing of the decision-making efficiency. The efforts made in this paper had overall objective to prepare and facilitate the use of research evidence provided by behavioral sciences in the organizational decision-making process by presenting the main concepts and knowledge in the field and by proposing an outline procedure specifically developed.
Luengam, Piyanuch; Tupsai, Jiraporn; Yuenyong, Chokchai
This study reported Grade 7 students' normative decision making in teaching and learning about global warming through science technology and society (STS) approach. The participants were 43 Grade 7 students in Sungkom, Nongkhai, Thailand. The teaching and learning about global warming through STS approach had carried out for 5 weeks. The global warming unit through STS approach was developed based on framework of Yuenyong (2006) that consisted of five stages including (1) identification of social issues, (2) identification of potential solutions, (3) need for knowledge, (4) decision-making, and (5) socialization stage. Students' normative decision making was collected during their learning by questionnaire, participant observation, and students' tasks. Students' normative decision making were analyzed from both pre-and post-intervention and students' ideas during the intervention. The aspects of normative include influences of global warming on technology and society; influences of values, culture, and society on global warming; and influences of technology on global warming. The findings revealed that students have chance to learn science concerning with the relationship between science, technology, and society through their giving reasons about issues related to global warming. The paper will discuss implications of these for science teaching and learning through STS in Thailand.
This paper analyses nuclear opposition in the United States, in particular as concerns construction of new facilities. The US adopted in 1969 the National Environmental Policy Act and subsequently, other regulations designed to assure public access to the decision-making process. However nuclear opponents continue to use every level of legal recourse open which results in doubts, delays and erosion of the credibility of the regulatory process. The author concludes that the most important objective is the continued safe operation of nuclear power plants. (NEA) [fr
Rehr, Amanda P.; Small, Mitchell J.; Bradley, Patricia; Fisher, William S.; Vega, Ann; Black, Kelly; Stockton, Tom
We present a decision support framework for science-based assessment and multi-stakeholder deliberation. The framework consists of two parts: a DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses) analysis to identify the important causal relationships among anthropogenic environmental stressors, processes, and outcomes; and a Decision Landscape analysis to depict the legal, social, and institutional dimensions of environmental decisions. The Decision Landscape incorporates interactions among government agencies, regulated businesses, non-government organizations, and other stakeholders. It also identifies where scientific information regarding environmental processes is collected and transmitted to improve knowledge about elements of the DPSIR and to improve the scientific basis for decisions. Our application of the decision support framework to coral reef protection and restoration in the Florida Keys focusing on anthropogenic stressors, such as wastewater, proved to be successful and offered several insights. Using information from a management plan, it was possible to capture the current state of the science with a DPSIR analysis as well as important decision options, decision makers and applicable laws with a the Decision Landscape analysis. A structured elicitation of values and beliefs conducted at a coral reef management workshop held in Key West, Florida provided a diversity of opinion and also indicated a prioritization of several environmental stressors affecting coral reef health. The integrated DPSIR/Decision landscape framework for the Florida Keys developed based on the elicited opinion and the DPSIR analysis can be used to inform management decisions, to reveal the role that further scientific information and research might play to populate the framework, and to facilitate better-informed agreement among participants.
Nolan, V.P.; Weltzin, J.F.
Fourth USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) Research Coordination Network (RCN) Annual Meeting and Stakeholders Workshop; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 21-22 September 2010; Phenology, the study of recurring plant and animal life cycle events, is rapidly emerging as a fundamental approach for understanding how ecological systems respond to environmental variation and climate change. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; http://www.usanpn.org) is a large-scale network of governmental and nongovernmental organizations, academic institutions, resource management agencies, and tribes. The network is dedicated to conducting and promoting repeated and integrated plant and animal phenological observations, identifying linkages with other relevant biological and physical data sources, and developing and distributing the tools to analyze these data at local to national scales. The primary goal of the USA-NPN is to improve the ability of decision makers to design strategies for climate adaptation.
Full Text Available Advertisers often make use of endorsers or representatives as trustworthy sources of persuasion for consumers' attitudes. Promotion of products through celebrities is a trendy advertising practice around the world. The present study judged the impact of celebrity credibility on advertising effectiveness in terms of consumer’s attitude towards the advertisement, attitude towards the brand and their purchase intention. This study also explored the differences of respondent’s responses towards the advertisements of brand through famous celebrities as well as unknown celebrities. Different TV advertisements were used for the experiment. Several statistical tools were applied to test the hypotheses and identify significant differences & the proposed relationships among the variables. Overall findings suggests that the respondents considered the famous celebrities of the brand as the most credible celebrities, having positive impact on consumers attitude towards the advertisement, attitude to the brand and their favorable purchase intentions as compare to the unknown celebrity with less credibility.
Scientific findings inform management decisions and policy products through various ways, these include: synthesis reports, white papers, in-person and web-based seminars (webinars), communication from specialized staff, and seminal peer-reviewed journal articles. Scientists are often told that if they want their science to inform management decisions and policy products that they must: clearly and simply articulate discreet pieces of scientific information and avoid attaching advocacy messages to the science; however, solely relying on these tenants does not ensure that scientific products will infuse the realms of management and policy. The process by which science successfully informs management decisions and policy products rarely begins at the time the results come out of the lab, but rather, before the research is carried out. Having an understanding of the political climate, management needs, agency research agendas, and funding limitations, as well as developing a working relationship with the intended managers and policy makers are key elements to developing the kind of science results and products that often make an impact in the management and policy world. In my presentation I will provide case-studies from California (USA) to highlight the type of coastal, ocean and climate science that has been successful in informing management decisions and policy documents, as well as provide a state-level agency perspective on the process by which this occurs.
José Aparecido de
Full Text Available This essay analyses the asymmetrical relationship between the time of scientific research and the time of the different segments interested in their results, focusing mainly on necessity to establish technical consensus about the fields of science that require rigorous investigations and texts. In the last years, civil society sectors - mainly scientific journalism, legislative power, and public opinion - has shown growing interest in participating of the decision making process that regulates science routes. In this study, we analyzed the decision making process of the Biosafety Law, as it allows research with embryonic stem cells in Brazil. The results allow us to conclude that this asymmetrical relationship between the different times (of science, scientific disclosure, public opinion, and public power contribute to the maturing of the dialog on scientific policies, as well as to the establishment of a consensus concerning science routes, which aims at the democratization of scientific work.
Issues in Japan's disaster management system were revealed by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, and by the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station accident. Many important decisions were based on scientific data, but appear not to have sufficiently considered the uncertainties of the data and the societal aspects of the problems. The issues that arose show the need for scientists to appropriately deal with risk communication and geoethics and issues. This paper discusses necessity of education for risk communication, geoethics and decisions science in school before students become sicentific decision makers in future.
Murugan, S.; Nagarajan, Dr. P.S.
Social media users generate a large volume of user generated content in various social media platforms to share their experiences in using a brand or a service. In the travel industry, the user generated content reviews are used by the prospective travellers to decide their travel plans. In the 1950’s credibility research of the media was started when television was introduced as a new media in the world dominated by newspapers. In the Social Media platforms, the credibility assessment is muc...
Mitchell, Michael S.; Cooley, Hilary; Gude, Justin A.; Kolbe, Jay; Nowak, J. Joshua; Proffitt, Kelly M.; Sells, Sarah N.; Thompson, Mike
The relative roles of science and human values can be difficult to distinguish when informal processes are used to make complex and contentious decisions in wildlife management. Structured Decision Making (SDM) offers a formal process for making such decisions, where scientific results and concepts can be disentangled from the values of differing stakeholders. We used SDM to formally integrate science and human values for a citizen working group of ungulate hunting advocates, lion hunting advocates, and outfitters convened to address the contentious allocation of harvest quotas for mountain lions (Puma concolor) in west‐central Montana, USA, during 2014. A science team consisting of mountain lion biologists and population ecologists convened to support the working group. The science team used integrated population models that incorporated 4 estimates of mountain lion density to estimate population trajectories for 5 alternative harvest quotas developed by the working group. Results of the modeling predicted that effects of each harvest quota were consistent across the 4 density estimates; harvest quotas affected predicted population trajectories for 5 years after implementation but differences were not strong. Based on these results, the focus of the working group changed to differences in values among stakeholders that were the true impediment to allocating harvest quotas. By distinguishing roles of science and human values in this process, the working group was able to collaboratively recommend a compromise solution. This solution differed little from the status quo that had been the focus of debate, but the SDM process produced understanding and buy‐in among stakeholders involved, reducing disagreements, misunderstanding, and unproductive arguments founded on informal application of scientific data and concepts. Whereas investments involved in conducting SDM may be unnecessary for many decisions in wildlife management, the investment may be beneficial for
Rajan, K.; McGann, C.; Py, F.; Thomas, H.; Henthorn, R.; McEwen, R.
Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are an increasingly important tool for oceanographic research. They routinely and cost effectively sample the water column at depths far beyond what humans are capable of visiting. However, control of these platforms has relied on fixed sequences for execution of pre-planned actions limiting their effectiveness for measuring dynamic and episodic ocean phenomenon. At the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI), we are developing an advanced Artificial Intelligence (AI) based control system to enable our AUV's to dynamically adapt to the environment by deliberating in-situ about mission plans while tracking onboard resource consumption, dealing with plan failures by allowing dynamic re-planning and being cognizant of vehicle health and safety in the course of executing science plans. Existing behavior-based approaches require an operator to script plans a priori while anticipating where and how the vehicle will transect the water column. While adequate for current needs to do routine pre-defined transects, it has limited flexibility in dealing with opportunistic science needs, is unable to deal with uncertainty in the oceanic environment and puts undue burden on the mission operators to manage complex interactions between behaviors. Our approach, informed by a decades worth of experience in intelligent control of NASA spacecraft, uses a constraint-based representation to manage mission goals, react to exogenous or endogenous failure conditions, respond to sensory feedback by using AI-based search techniques to sort thru a space of likely responses and picking one which is satisfies the completion of mission goals. The system encapsulates the long-standing notion of a sense-deliberate-act cycle at the heart of a control loop and reflects the goal-oriented nature of control allowing operators to specify abstract mission goals rather than detailed command sequences. To date we have tested T- REX (the Teleo
Myers, Jerry G.; Young, M.; Goodenow, Debra A.; Keenan, A.; Walton, M.; Boley, L.
Model and simulation (MS) credibility is defined as, the quality to elicit belief or trust in MS results. NASA-STD-7009  delineates eight components (Verification, Validation, Input Pedigree, Results Uncertainty, Results Robustness, Use History, MS Management, People Qualifications) that address quantifying model credibility, and provides guidance to the model developers, analysts, and end users for assessing the MS credibility. Of the eight characteristics, input pedigree, or the quality of the data used to develop model input parameters, governing functions, or initial conditions, can vary significantly. These data quality differences have varying consequences across the range of MS application. NASA-STD-7009 requires that the lowest input data quality be used to represent the entire set of input data when scoring the input pedigree credibility of the model. This requirement provides a conservative assessment of model inputs, and maximizes the communication of the potential level of risk of using model outputs. Unfortunately, in practice, this may result in overly pessimistic communication of the MS output, undermining the credibility of simulation predictions to decision makers. This presentation proposes an alternative assessment mechanism, utilizing results parameter robustness, also known as model input sensitivity, to improve the credibility scoring process for specific simulations.
Weerkamp, W.; de Rijke, M.
Topical blog post retrieval is the task of ranking blog posts with respect to their relevance for a given topic. To improve topical blog post retrieval we incorporate textual credibility indicators in the retrieval process. We consider two groups of indicators: post level (determined using
Xufeng Xu, Joydeep Mitra
have found that credibility theory, which broadens the scope of fuzzy set theory, is an effective tool for representing fuzzy events, and have developed a theoretical .... Based on the status of switches, the distribution system can be divided into multiple SPSS, which are connected with tie switches. For example, SPSS.
Susan Charnley; Courtney Carothers; Terre Satterfield; Arielle Levine; Melissa R. Poe; Karma Norman; Jamie Donatuto; Sara Jo Breslow; Michael B. Mascia; Phillip S. Levin; Xavier Basurto; Christina C. Hicks; Carlos García-Quijano; Kevin St. Martin
Increasing recognition of the human dimensions of natural resource management issues, and of social and ecological sustainability and resilience as being inter-related, highlights the importance of applying social science to natural resource management decision-making. Moreover, a number of laws and regulations require natural resource management agencies to consider...
Gonzales, L. M.; Wood, C.; Boland, M. A.; Rose, C. A.
Scientific information should play a vital role in many decision making processes, yet issues incorporating geoscience information often arise due to inherent differences between how scientists and decision makers operate. Decision makers and scientists have different priorities, produce work at different rates, and often lack an understanding of each others' institutional constraints. Boundary organizations, entities that facilitate collaboration and information flow across traditional boundaries such as that between scientists and decision makers, are in a unique position to improve the dialogue between disparate groups. The American Geosciences Institute (AGI), a nonprofit federation of 50 geoscience societies and organizations, is linking the geoscience and decision-making communities through its Critical Issues Program. AGI's Critical Issues program has first-hand experience in improving the transfer of information across the science-decision making boundary, particularly in areas pertaining to water resources and hazards. This presentation will focus on how, by collaborating with organizations representing the decision making and geoscience communities to inform our program development, we have created our three main content types - website, webinar series, and research database - to better meet the needs of the decision-making process. The program presents existing geoscience information in a way that makes the interconnected nature of geoscience topics more easily understood, encourages discussion between the scientific and decision-making communities, and has established a trusted source of impartial geoscience information. These efforts have focused on state and local decision makers—groups that increasingly influence climate and risk-related decisions, yet often lack the resources to access and understand geoscience information.
Carley, S.; Youtie, J.; Solomon, G.; Porter, A.
The notion of a credibility map argues that everyone has a distinctive map that dictates the preference given to different types and sources of information. When seeking to influence other academic fields, scholars will likely turn to scientific and technical information though other types, such as policy reports, may also be relevant. We draw on the credibility mapping concept to understand how a major policy report is taken up by the target academic community. The report, How People Learn, was published by the US National Academies in 2000, to expose the education community (mainly educational researchers but also knowledge-seeking practitioners) to major cognitive science research findings of relevance to learning. We applied several search strings to measure the take up of this report in the target community. We used Google Scholar to evince that that How People Learn was cited in nearly 15,000 publications, these citations grew particularly steeply from 2000 to 2008, and most were in education-related journal papers. We performed a similar analysis using the Web of Science, which showed that most of the citations were substantial as opposed to perfunctory. (Author)
Glynn, P. D.; Shapiro, C. D.; Liu, S. B.
The need for broader understanding and involvement in science coupled with social technology advances enabling crowdsourcing and citizen science have created greater opportunities for public participation in the gathering, interpretation, and use of geospatial information. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is developing guidance for USGS scientists, partners, and interested members of the public on when and how public participation can most effectively be used in the conduct of scientific activities. Public participation can provide important perspectives and knowledge that cannot be obtained through traditional scientific methods alone. Citizen engagement can also provide increased efficiencies to USGS science and additional benefits to society including enhanced understanding, appreciation, and interest in geospatial information and its use in decision making.The USGS guidance addresses several fundamental issues by:1. Developing an operational definition of citizen or participatory science.2. Identifying the circumstances under which citizen science is appropriate for use and when its use is not recommended. 3. Describing structured processes for effective use of citizen science. 4. Defining the successful application of citizen science and identifying useful success metrics.The guidance is coordinated by the USGS Science and Decisions Center and developed by a multidisciplinary team of USGS scientists and managers. External perspectives will also be incorporated, as appropriate to align with other efforts such as the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) Citizen Science and Crowdsourcing Toolkit for the Federal government. The guidance will include the development of an economic framework to assess the benefits and costs of geospatial information developed through participatory processes. This economic framework considers tradeoffs between obtaining additional perspectives through enhanced participation with costs associated from obtaining
Wisdom, Sonya L.
The purpose of this study was to examine how a science methods course in primary education might influence the curriculum decisions of preservice teachers in The Bahamas related to unit plan development on environmental science topics. Grounded in a social constructivist theoretical framework for teaching and learning science, this study explored the development of the confidence and competence of six preservice teachers to teach environmental science topics at the primary school level. A qualitative case study using action research methodologies was conducted. The perspectives of preservice teachers about the relevancy of methods used in a science methods course were examined as I became more reflective about my practice. Using constant comparative analysis, data from student-written documents and interviews as well as my field notes from class observations and reflective journaling were analyzed for emerging patterns and themes. Findings of the study indicated that while preservice teachers showed a slight increase in interest regarding learning and teaching environmental science, their primary focus during the course was learning effective teaching strategies in science on topics with which they already had familiarity. Simultaneously, I gained a deeper understanding of the usefulness of reflection in my practice. As a contribution to the complexity of learning to teach science at the primary school level, this study suggests some issues for consideration as preservice teachers are supported to utilize more of the national primary science curriculum in The Bahamas.
Regnier, E.P.; Wallo, A.
Assumptions about this generation's duty to future generations underlie decisions on regulatory requirements for disposal of radioactive waste. Regulatory provisions related to time of compliance, dose criteria, and institutional controls, for example, continue to be topics of discussion as regulations are revised or compared. Subjective and difficult ethical issues are either explicit or implicit in these discussions. The information and criteria used must be relevant and help make good decisions that, ideally, increase the overall welfare of future generations. To what extent can or should science usefully inform such decision-making? Both the National Academies of Science and the National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) have reported on this topic, albeit from different viewpoints. This paper explains and expands upon the rationale used for setting compliance time periods such as the Department of Energy's requirement for a 1,000 year time of compliance with dose limits for low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities. It evaluates radioactive waste disposal against principles of equity recommended by NAPA. Radioactive waste disposal standards require evaluation of impacts much farther into the future than has been common for other endeavors with very long term effects. While performance assessment analyses provide much useful information, their inherent uncertainties over long time periods preclude the projection of reality. Thus, the usefulness of extremely long projections in supporting good decisions that promote the welfare of future generations is limited. Such decisions are fundamentally a question of resource allocation, equity, and fairness. (authors)
Woosley, Raymond L; Black, Kristin; Heise, C William; Romero, Klaus
Since the 1990s, when numerous non-cardiac drugs were first recognized to have the potential to prolong the QT interval and cause torsades de pointes (TdP), clinicians, drug regulators, drug developers, and clinical investigators have become aware of the complexities of assessing evidence and determining TdP causality for the many drugs being marketed or under development. To facilitate better understanding, the Arizona Center for Education and Research on Therapeutics, known as AZCERT, has developed the CredibleMeds.org website which includes QTdrugs, a listing of over 220 drugs placed in four risk categories based on their association with QT prolongation and TdP. Since the site was launched in 1999, it has become the single and most reliable source of information of its kind for patients, healthcare providers, and research scientists. Over 96,000 registered users rely on the QTdrugs database as their primary resource to inform their medication use, their prescribing or their clinical research into the impact of QT-prolonging drugs and drug-induced arrhythmias. The QTdrugs lists are increasingly used as the basis for clinical decision support systems in healthcare and for metrics of prescribing quality by healthcare insurers. A free smartphone app and an application program interface enable rapid and mobile access to the lists. Also, the CredibleMeds website offers numerous educational resources for patients, educators and healthcare providers that foster the safe use of medications. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Affenit, Rachael N.; Barns, Erik R.; Furst, Jacob D.; Rasin, Alexander; Raicu, Daniela S.
Creating classifiers for computer-aided diagnosis in the absence of ground truth is a challenging problem. Using experts' opinions as reference truth is difficult because the variability in the experts' interpretations introduces uncertainty in the labeled diagnostic data. This uncertainty translates into noise, which can significantly affect the performance of any classifier on test data. To address this problem, we propose a new label set weighting approach to combine the experts' interpretations and their variability, as well as a selective iterative classification (SIC) approach that is based on conformal prediction. Using the NIH/NCI Lung Image Database Consortium (LIDC) dataset in which four radiologists interpreted the lung nodule characteristics, including the degree of malignancy, we illustrate the benefits of the proposed approach. Our results show that the proposed 2-label-weighted approach significantly outperforms the accuracy of the original 5- label and 2-label-unweighted classification approaches by 39.9% and 7.6%, respectively. We also found that the weighted 2-label models produce higher skewness values by 1.05 and 0.61 for non-SIC and SIC respectively on root mean square error (RMSE) distributions. When each approach was combined with selective iterative classification, this further improved the accuracy of classification for the 2-weighted-label by 7.5% over the original, and improved the skewness of the 5-label and 2-unweighted-label by 0.22 and 0.44 respectively.
Lopes, Romeu; Abrantes, José Luís; Kastenholz, ELISABETH
The social web is the ideal place to share information, experiences and preferences among consumers. Nowadays, online reviews and recommendations are becoming increasingly important and seen as a new digital form of word-of-mouth, a key topic for researchers. Despite the significant body of literature about electronic word-of-mouth (EWOM), there is a lack of research that analyzes the phenomenon in the context of the hospitality industry, its drivers, conditioning factors and impacts. This re...
Sadia Aziz; Usman Ghani; Abdullah Niazi
Advertisers often make use of endorsers or representatives as trustworthy sources of persuasion for consumers' attitudes. Promotion of products through celebrities is a trendy advertising practice around the world. The present study judged the impact of celebrity credibility on advertising effectiveness in terms of consumer’s attitude towards the advertisement, attitude towards the brand and their purchase intention. This study also explored the differences of respondent’s responses towards t...
Kwon, Eun-ha; Ko, Won Il
This paper presents an integrated multicriteria analysis method for the quantitative evaluation of a state's nuclear nonproliferation credibility level. Underscoring the implications of policy on the sources of political demand for nuclear weapons rather than focusing on efforts to restrict the supply of specific weapons technology from the 'haves' to the 'have-nots', the proposed methodology considers the political, social, and cultural dimensions of nuclear proliferation. This methodology comprises three steps: (1) identifying the factors that influence credibility formation and employing them to construct a criteria tree that will illustrate the relationships among these factors; (2) defining the weight coefficients of each criterion through pairwise comparisons of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP); and (3) assigning numerical scores to a state under each criterion and combining them with the weight coefficients in order to provide an overall assessment of the state. The functionality of this methodology is examined by assessing the current level of nuclear nonproliferation credibility of four countries: Japan, North Korea, South Korea, and Switzerland.
One widely used definition of validation is that the quantitative test of the performance of a model through the comparison of model predictions to independent sets of observations from the system being simulated. The ability to show that the model predictions compare well with observations is often thought to be the most rigorous test that can be used to establish credibility for a model in the scientific community. However, such tests are only part of the process used to establish credibility, and in some cases may be either unnecessary or misleading. Naylor and Finger extended the concept of validation to include the establishment of validity for the postulates embodied in the model and the test of assumptions used to select postulates for the model. Validity of postulates is established through concurrence by experts in the field of study that the mathematical or conceptual model contains the structural components and mathematical relationships necessary to adequately represent the system with respect to the goals for the model. This extended definition of validation provides for consideration of the structure of the model, not just its performance, in establishing credibility. Evaluation of a simulation model should establish the correctness of the code and the efficacy of the model within its domain of applicability. (24 refs., 6 figs.)
Provost, Foster; Fawcett, Tom
Companies have realized they need to hire data scientists, academic institutions are scrambling to put together data-science programs, and publications are touting data science as a hot-even "sexy"-career choice. However, there is confusion about what exactly data science is, and this confusion could lead to disillusionment as the concept diffuses into meaningless buzz. In this article, we argue that there are good reasons why it has been hard to pin down exactly what is data science. One reason is that data science is intricately intertwined with other important concepts also of growing importance, such as big data and data-driven decision making. Another reason is the natural tendency to associate what a practitioner does with the definition of the practitioner's field; this can result in overlooking the fundamentals of the field. We believe that trying to define the boundaries of data science precisely is not of the utmost importance. We can debate the boundaries of the field in an academic setting, but in order for data science to serve business effectively, it is important (i) to understand its relationships to other important related concepts, and (ii) to begin to identify the fundamental principles underlying data science. Once we embrace (ii), we can much better understand and explain exactly what data science has to offer. Furthermore, only once we embrace (ii) should we be comfortable calling it data science. In this article, we present a perspective that addresses all these concepts. We close by offering, as examples, a partial list of fundamental principles underlying data science.
Jessen, Johan; Jørgensen, Anker Helms
This article investigates the impact of social dynamics on online credibility. Empirical studies by Pettingill (2006) and Hargittai, et al. (2010) suggest that social validation and online trustees play increasingly important roles when evaluating credibility online. This dynamic puts pressure...
The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of Science-Technology-Society (STS) curriculum on students' scientific literacy, problem solving and decision making. Four hundred and eighty (480) Senior Secondary two science and non-science students were randomly selected from intact classes in six secondary schools in Calabar Municipality of…
Salvi, Stefano; Rubbia, Giuliana; Abruzzese, Luigi
In 2010 the GEO Geohazard Supersites and Natural Laboratories initiative (GSNL) launched the concept of a global partnership among the geophysical scientific community and the satellite and in situ data providers, aiming to promote scientific advancements in the knowledge of seismic and volcanic phenomena. The initial goal was successfully achieved, and many more new scientific results were obtained than it could have been possible if the Supersites had not existed (http://www.earthobservations.org/gsnl.php). At the same time the Supersites have demonstrated to be able to effectively support the rapid transfer of useful scientific information to the risk managers, exploiting the existing institutional relationships between the Supersite coordinators and the local decision makers. However, a more demanding call for action is given by the Sendai Framework 2015-2030 (outcome of the 2015 UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction), where for the first time the knowledge of the risk components and the science based decision-making process are defined as top priorities for an effective DRR. There are evident possible synergies between the Sendai framework, GEO, the CEOS (Committee on Earth Observation Satellites), and GSNL, but for maximum benefit and effectiveness the latter needs to progress at a faster pace towards a full implementation of the Open Science approach to geohazard science. In the above global framework the Supersites can represent local test beds where to experiment coordination, collaboration and communication approaches and technological solutions tailored to the local situation, to ensure that the scientific community can contribute the information needed for the best possible decision making. This vision and the new developments of GSNL 2.0 have been approved by the GEO Program Board, and a clear roadmap has been set for the period 2017-2019. We will present the approach and the implementation plan at the conference.
Webber, S.; MacDonald, G. M.
The last decades have seen scholars argue for a greater integration of science and decision-making in order to more effectively respond to climate change. It has been suggested that overcoming the gap between science, on the one hand, and policy-making and management, on the other, requires building bridges through methods of co-production, creating actionable science, or through boundary organizations. In this paper, we review attempts at co-production for policy-making and management in the context of climate change adaptation in California. Building on field research, including numerous interviews conducted with scientists and decision-makers who are co-producers of adaptation projects, we make three arguments. First, we show that an emphasis on co-production and science-informed climate change adaptation decision-making has bolstered a contract-oriented, and decentralized network-based model of producing climate science. Second, reviewing successes and failures in co-production - as reported in interviews - indicates that it is principally in cases of neatly defined, and spatially and temporarily narrow decision-making contexts, and with highly motivated decision-makers, that climate science is used. Finally, we suggest that the ideas of co-production and actionable science may have increased the institutional and organizational burden at the science-decision interface, lengthening the boundary-organization-chain rather than necessarily facilitating adaptive policy-making and management.
The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, hailed as one of the most effective environmental treaties of all time, has a thirty year history of science-policy decision-making. The partnership between Parties to the Montreal Protocol and its technical assessment panels serve as a basis for understanding successes and evaluating stumbles of global environmental decision-making. Real-world environmental treaty negotiations can be highly time-sensitive, politically motivated, and resource constrained thus scientists and policymakers alike are often unable to confront the uncertainties associated with the multitude of choices. The science-policy relationship built within the framework of the Montreal Protocol has helped constrain uncertainty and inform policy decisions but has also highlighted the limitations of the use of scientific understanding in political decision-making. This talk will describe the evolution of the scientist-policymaker relationship over the history of the Montreal Protocol. Examples will illustrate how the Montreal Protocol's technical panels inform decisions of the country governments and will characterize different approaches pursued by different countries with a particular focus on the recently adopted Kigali Amendment. In addition, this talk will take a deeper dive with an analysis of the historic technical panel assessments on estimating financial resources necessary to enable compliance to the Montreal Protocol compared to the political financial decisions made through the Protocol's Multilateral Fund replenishment negotiation process. Finally, this talk will describe the useful lessons and challenges from these interactions and how they may be applicable in other environmental management frameworks across multiple scales under changing climatic conditions.
Metes, J.; Ballard, H. L.; Parrish, J.
As many scholars and practitioners in the environmental field turn to citizen science to collect robust scientific data as well as engage with wider audiences, it is crucial to build a more complete understanding of how citizen science influences and affects different interests within a social-ecological system. This research investigates how federal, state, and tribal natural resource managers interact with data from the Coastal Observation & Seabird Survey Team (COASST) project—a citizen science program that trains participants to monitor species and abundance of beach-cast birds on the Pacific Northwest Coast. Fifteen coastal and fisheries managers who previously requested COASST data were interviewed about how and why they used data from the project and were asked to describe how information gained from COASST affected their management decisions. Results suggest that broadly, managers value and learn from the program's capacity to gather data spanning a wide spatial-temporal range. This contribution to baseline monitoring helps managers signal and track both short- and long-term environmental change. More specifically, managers use COASST data in conjunction with other professional monitoring programs, such as the National Marine Fisheries Observer Program, to build higher degrees of reliability into management decisions. Although managers offered diverse perspectives and experiences about what the role of citizen science in natural resource management generally should be, there was agreement that agencies on their own often lack personnel and funding required to sufficiently monitor many crucial resources. Additionally, managers strongly suggested that COASST and other citizen science projects increased public awareness and support for agency decision-making and policies, and indirect yet important contribution to natural resource management.
van Zuydam, Sabine; Hendriks, Frank
In times of perception politics, the credibility of electoral candidates is a crucial asset in political marketing. This raises the question to which political leaders citizens attribute credibility and how political credibility is gained and lost through media performance. We analyze and compare
van Zuydam, Sabine; Hendriks, Frank
In times of perception politics, the credibility of electoral candidates is a crucial asset in political marketing. This raises the question to which political leaders citizens attribute credibility and how political credibility is gained and lost through media performance. We analyze and compare
Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor
Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Smith, Klayton; Boone, Kyle; Victor, Tara; Miora, Deborah; Cottingham, Maria; Ziegler, Elizabeth; Zeller, Michelle; Wright, Matthew
The purpose of this archival study was to identify performance validity tests (PVTs) and standard IQ and neurocognitive test scores, which singly or in combination, differentiate credible patients of low IQ (FSIQ ≤ 75; n = 55) from non-credible patients. We compared the credible participants against a sample of 74 non-credible patients who appeared to have been attempting to feign low intelligence specifically (FSIQ ≤ 75), as well as a larger non-credible sample (n = 383) unselected for IQ. The entire non-credible group scored significantly higher than the credible participants on measures of verbal crystallized intelligence/semantic memory and manipulation of overlearned information, while the credible group performed significantly better on many processing speed and memory tests. Additionally, credible women showed faster finger-tapping speeds than non-credible women. The credible group also scored significantly higher than the non-credible subgroup with low IQ scores on measures of attention, visual perceptual/spatial tasks, processing speed, verbal learning/list learning, and visual memory, and credible women continued to outperform non-credible women on finger tapping. When cut-offs were selected to maintain approximately 90% specificity in the credible group, sensitivity rates were highest for verbal and visual memory measures (i.e., TOMM trials 1 and 2; Warrington Words correct and time; Rey Word Recognition Test total; RAVLT Effort Equation, Trial 5, total across learning trials, short delay, recognition, and RAVLT/RO discriminant function; and Digit Symbol recognition), followed by select attentional PVT scores (i.e., b Test omissions and time to recite four digits forward). When failure rates were tabulated across seven most sensitive scores, a cut-off of ≥ 2 failures was associated with 85.4% specificity and 85.7% sensitivity, while a cut-off of ≥ 3 failures resulted in 95.1% specificity and 66.0% sensitivity. Results are discussed in light of
The role of decision-making in learning performance has been an occasional topic in the research literature in science education, but rarely has it been a central issue in the field. Nonetheless, recent studies regarding the topic in several fields other than education, such as cognitive neuroscience and social choice theory, indicate the fundamental importance(s) of the topic. This study focuses on a possible role of decision-making in science learning. Initially the study was designed to probe the decision-making ability of elementary school children with a modified version of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). The experiment involved six Montessori 3rd and 4th grade students as the experimental group and eight public school 3rd and 4th grade students as the control group. The result of the modified IGT revealed a tendency in choice trajectories favoring children at the Montessori school. However, the probabilistic value went below the statistically significant level set by the U test. A further study focused on the impact of better decision-making ability revealed in the first experiment on performances with a science learning module that emphasized collective reasoning. The instruction was based on a set of worksheets with multiple choices on which students were asked to make predictions with and to provide supportive arguments regarding outcomes of experiments introduced in the worksheet. Then the whole class was involved with a real experiment to see which choice was correct. The findings in the study indicated that the Montessori students often obtained higher scores than non-Montessori students in making decision with a tendency of consistency in terms of their choices of the alternatives on the worksheets. The findings of the experiments were supported by a correlational analysis that was performed at the end of study. Although no statistically significant correlations were found, there was a tendency for positively associative shifts between the scores of the
Munro, Janet Lynn
This qualitative study focused on the knowledge and perceptions of Latino high school students, as well those of their parents and school personnel, at a southwestern, suburban high school regarding persistence in the math/science pipeline. In the context of the unique school and community setting these students experience, the decision-making process was examined with particular focus on characterizing the relationships that influence the process. While the theoretical framework that informs this study was that of social capital, its primary purpose was to inform the school's processes and policy in support of increased Latino participation in the math and science pipeline. Since course selection may be the most powerful factor affecting school achievement and college-preparedness, and since course selection is influenced by school policy, school personnel, students, parents, and teachers alike, it is important to understand the beliefs and perceptions that characterize the relationships among them. The qualitative research design involved a phenomenological study of nine Latino students, their parents, their teachers and counselors, and certain support personnel from the high school. The school's and community's environment in support of academic intensity served as context for the portrait that developed. Given rapidly changing demographics that bring more and more Latino students to suburban high schools, the persistent achievement gap experienced by Latino students, and the growing dependence of the world economy on a citizenry versed in the math- and science-related fields, a deeper understanding of the decision-making processes Latino 12 students experience can inform school policy as educators struggle to influence those decisions. This study revealed a striking lack of knowledge concerning the college-entrance ramifications of continued course work in math and science beyond that required for graduation, relationships among peers, parents, and school
Lock, Irina; Seele, Peter
Credibility is central to communication but often jeopardized by “credibility gaps.” This is especially true for communication about corporate social responsibility (CSR). To date, no tool has been available to analyze stakeholders’ credibility perceptions of CSR communication. This article presents a series of studies conducted to develop a scale to assess the perceived credibility of CSR reports, one of CSR communication’s most important tools. The scale provides a novel operationalization of credibility using validity claims of Habermas’s ideal speech situation as subdimensions. The scale development process, carried out in five studies including a literature review, a Delphi study, and three validation studies applying confirmatory factor analysis, resulted in the 16-item Perceived Credibility (PERCRED) scale. The scale shows convergent, discriminant, concurrent, and nomological validity and is the first validated measure for analyzing credibility perceptions of CSR reports. PMID:29278260
Lock, Irina; Seele, Peter
Credibility is central to communication but often jeopardized by "credibility gaps." This is especially true for communication about corporate social responsibility (CSR). To date, no tool has been available to analyze stakeholders' credibility perceptions of CSR communication. This article presents a series of studies conducted to develop a scale to assess the perceived credibility of CSR reports, one of CSR communication's most important tools. The scale provides a novel operationalization of credibility using validity claims of Habermas's ideal speech situation as subdimensions. The scale development process, carried out in five studies including a literature review, a Delphi study, and three validation studies applying confirmatory factor analysis, resulted in the 16-item Perceived Credibility (PERCRED) scale. The scale shows convergent, discriminant, concurrent, and nomological validity and is the first validated measure for analyzing credibility perceptions of CSR reports.
Roberts, S.; Glickson, D.; Mengelt, C.; Forrest, S.; Waddell, K.
The National Research Council is a private, nonprofit organization chartered by Congress in 1916 as an expansion of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. Its mission is to improve the use of science in government decision making and public policy, increase public understanding, and promote the acquisition and dissemination of knowledge in matters involving science, engineering, technology, and health. Within the National Research Council, the Ocean Studies Board (OSB) mission is to explore the science, policies, and infrastructure needed to understand, manage, and conserve coastal and marine environments and resources. OSB undertakes studies and workshops on emerging scientific and policy issues at the request of federal agencies, Congress, and others; provides program reviews and guidance; and facilitates communication on oceanographic issues among different sectors. OSB also serves as the U.S. National Committee to the international, nongovernmental Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR). OSB has produced reports on a wide range of topics of interest to researchers and educators, the federal government, the non-profit sector, and industry. Recent reports have focused on ecosystem services in the Gulf of Mexico after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, sea level rise on the U.S. west coast, scientific ocean drilling needs and accomplishments, requirements for sustained ocean color measurements, critical infrastructure for ocean research, tsunami warning and preparedness, ocean acidification, and marine and hydrokinetic power resource assessments. Studies that are currently underway include responding to oil spills in the Arctic, evaluating the effectiveness of fishery stock rebuilding plans, and reviewing the National Ocean Acidification Research Plan. OSB plays an important role in helping create policy decisions and disseminating important information regarding various aspects of ocean science.
Full Text Available Managing water resources, air quality, forests, rangelands and agricultural systems in the context of climate change requires a new level of integrated knowledge. In order to articulate a role for university-based research teams as providers of climate services, this paper analyzes environmental change concerns and expectations about climate models among natural resources decision-makers in the Northwest US. Data were collected during a series of workshops organized by researchers from BioEarth, a regional earth systems modeling initiative. Eighty-three stakeholders from industry, government agencies and non-governmental organizations engaged with a team of academic researchers developing integrated biophysical and economic climate modeling tools. Analysis of transcripts of workshop discussions, surveys, and questionnaires reveals diverse attitudes among stakeholders about: 1 preferred modes of engaging in climate science research, 2 specific concerns and questions about climate change impacts, and 3 the most relevant and usable scope and scale of climate change impacts projections. Diverse concerns and information needs among natural resource decision-makers highlight the need for research teams to define clear and precise goals for stakeholder engagement. Utilizing the skills of research team members who have communication and extension expertise is pivotally important. We suggest impactful opportunities for research teams and natural resource decision-makers to interface and learn from one another. Effective approaches include structuring group discussions to identify gaps in existing climate change impacts information, explicitly considering changing policies, technologies and management practices, and exploring possible unintended consequences of decisions.
Johnson, S.W.; Marshall, M.G.; Harrington, M.W.
The United States Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management Office of Science and Technology (OST) has established a program responsible for collecting, administering, continuously updating, and disseminating data on developing technologies intended for the clean-up of the department's weapons complex. The basis of this program originated from information related activities begun in 1991 and has grown to become a state-of-the-art data and information infrastructure, providing a broad range of capabilities that harmonize both the internal and external data and communication requirements of this office. A decision assistance functionality has been maintained and incorporated for use in coordination with a broader information management concept. The OST information inventory maintains operational data sets and information representative of OST activities. The following paper summarizes the operational activities of the Information for Decisions program
Weiser, D. A.
Energy production practices that may induce earthquakes require decisions about acceptable risk before projects begin. How much ground shaking, structural damage, infrastructure damage, or delay of geothermal power and other operations is tolerable? I review a few mitigation strategies as well as existing protocol in several U.S. states. Timely and accurate scientific information can assist in determining the costs and benefits of altering production parameters. These issues can also be addressed with probability estimates of adverse effects ("costs"), frequency of earthquakes of different sizes, and associated impacts of different magnitude earthquakes. When risk management decisions based on robust science are well-communicated to stakeholders, mitigation efforts benefit. Effective communications elements include a) the risks and benefits of different actions (e.g. using a traffic light protocol); b) the factors to consider when determining acceptable risk; and c) the probability of different magnitude events. I present a case example for The Geysers geothermal field in California, to discuss locally "acceptable" and "unacceptable" earthquakes and share nearby communities' responses to smaller and larger magnitude earthquakes. I use the USGS's "Did You Feel It?" data archive to sample how often felt events occur, and how many of those are above acceptable magnitudes (to both local residents and operators). Using this information, I develop a science-based decision-making framework, in the case of potentially risky earthquakes, for lessening seismic risk and other negative consequences. This includes assessing future earthquake probabilities based on past earthquake records. One of my goals is to help characterize uncertainties in a way that they can be managed; to this end, I present simple and accessible approaches that can be used in the decision making process.
Abbott, S. B.
Our ability to understand, respond, and make decisions about our changing planet hinges on timely scientific information and situational awareness. Information and understanding will continue to be the foundations of decision support in the face of uncertainty. Over the last 40 years, investments in Earth observations have brought remarkable achievements in weather prediction, disaster prediction and response, land management, and our broad base of Earth science knowledge. The only way to know what is happening to our planet and to manage our resources wisely is to measure it, This means tracking changes decade after decade and reanalyzing the record in light of new insights, technologies, and methodologies. In order to understand and respond to climate change and other global challenges, there is a need for a high degree of transparency in the publication, management, traceability, and citability of science data, and particularly for Earth science data. In addition, it is becoming increasingly important that free, open, and authoritative sources of quality data are available for peer review. One important focus is on applications and opportunities for enhancing data exchange standards for use with Earth science data. By increasing the transparency of scientific work and providing incentives for researchers and institutions to openly share data, we will more effectively leverage the scientific capacity of our Nation to address climate change and to meet future challenges. It is an enormous challenge to collect, organize, and communicate the vast stores of data maintained across the government. The Administration is committed to moving past these barriers in providing the American public with unprecedented access to useful government data, including an open architecture and making data available in multiple formats. The goal is to enable better decision-making, drive transparency, and to help power innovation for a stronger America. Whether for a research project
Full Text Available This study aims to investigate important aspects to concern on when building a commercial presentation website, in order to increase the credibility of the certain categories of a presentation website. Factor analysis was used in order to identify the dimensions of each category. The categories and resulted dimensions discussed were: “image” – with the following dimensions: Projected image, Specialist, Advert and Coherence, “relationship” – with the following dimensions: Bi-directional communication and Contact information, “product presentation” – with the following dimensions: In-depth description and Variety and “site functionality” – with the following dimensions: Usefulness, Official relationship, Complete communication, Exterior communication, Information format and References.
Full Text Available The regularity of publishing corrections, clarifi cations, and letters to the editor, entail a high level of respect among the media for their audiences as they signify accountability and media credibility.This study began on the general assumption that the Croatian media is reluctant to publish corrections regularly, projecting an image that errors simply do not occur. Certainly errorless reporting is impossible due to fact that journalism is a profession prone to human error. Therefore, this study has enacted a content analysis methodology to follow the four primary Croatian daily newspapers, Jutarnji list, Večernji list, 24 sata and Vjesnik, for the period between May 6 and 30, 2010. The primary conclusion is that Croatian newspaper editors are hesitant to publish corrections if they are not under pressure from the Media Law.
Ruggles, Clive L. N.
This is not a talk about archaeoastronomy per se, but rather about how the Astronomy and World Heritage Initiative helps us deal with archaeoastronomical sites as potential World Heritage.In 2011, an attempt to nominate a prehistoric “observatory” site onto the World Heritage List proved unsuccessful because UNESCO rejected the interpretation as statistically and archaeologically unproven. The case highlights an issue at the heart of archaeoastronomical methodology and interpretation: the mere existence of astronomical alignments in ancient sites does not prove that they were important to those who constructed and used the sites, let alone giving us insights into their likely significance and meaning. Advances in archaeoastronomy over several decades have resulted in the development of a substantial body of theory and practice (Ruggles 2014) where the most favoured interpretations depend upon integrating methods from astronomy, anthropology and other disciplines, but individual cases can still engender considerable controversy.The fact that more archaeoastronomical sites are now appearing on national tentative lists prior to their WHL nomination means that this is no longer just an academic issue; establishing the credibility of the archaeoastronomical interpretations is crucial to any assessment of their value in heritage terms.In this talk I shall describe progress that has been made within the Astronomy and World Heritage Initiative towards establishing broadly acceptable measures of archaeoastronomical credibility that make sense in the context of the heritage evaluation process. I will focus particularly, but not exclusively, on sites that are included in the Thematic Studies and/or are already included on national Tentative Lists, such as the Portuguese/Spanish seven-stone antas (Neolithic dolmens) and Chankillo in Peru (solar observation device dating to c. 300BC). I will also mention how the recognition of astronomical attributes of potential
Patton, M Q
Varying philosophical and theoretical orientations to qualitative inquiry remind us that issues of quality and credibility intersect with audience and intended research purposes. This overview examines ways of enhancing the quality and credibility of qualitative analysis by dealing with three distinct but related inquiry concerns: rigorous techniques and methods for gathering and analyzing qualitative data, including attention to validity, reliability, and triangulation; the credibility, comp...
Socio-scientific issues have become increasingly important in Science-Technology-Society (STS) education as a means to make science learning more relevant to students' lives. This study used the e-waste issue as a context to investigate two aspects of socio-scientific decision-making: (1) the relationship between the nature of science (NOS) conceptualizations and decision-making; and (2) moral concerns involved in the process of decision-making. This study contributes to the field of socio-scientific issue research and STS education in the following ways. First, it is the first study that performed meta-analysis to seek the relationship between the NOS understanding and decision-making. This study concludes that valuable NOS conceptualizations that are highly related to the socio-scientific issue under investigation, rather than general NOS understanding, exert statistically significant influences on decision-making. Second, this study empirically examined the Multiple Responses Model (MRM), which enables the transfer of qualitative NOS responses into quantitative data, and hence, inferential statistics. The current study justifies the significance of unidimensionality to the application of the MRM. It addresses the limitations associated with the MRM and provides implications for future use of the MRM in other contexts. Finally, the study explores the role of moral concerns in socio-scientific decision-making. Eight participants engaged in interviews that were designed to elicit their reactions and feelings regarding the issue of exporting e-waste to poor countries. Qualitative analyses demonstrated that moral considerations were significant influences on decision-making. In addition, participants' action responses revealed that they were motivated to take action to help the environment. The study has implications for socio-scientific issue studies in other contexts and for teacher education programs that use socio-scientific issues to advance teachers' reasoning
Rogers, W.; Gulledge, J. M.
Many decision makers lack actionable scientific information needed to prepare for future challenges associated with climate change. Although the scope and quality of available scientific information has increased dramatically in recent years, this information does not always reach - or is not presented in a form that is useful to - decision makers who need it. The producer (i.e. scientists) community tends to be stovepiped, even though consumers (i.e. decision makers) often need interdisciplinary science and analysis. Consumers, who may also be stovepiped in various agencies or subject areas, may lack familiarity with or access to these separate communities, as well as the tools or time to navigate scientific information and disciplines. Closing the communication gap between these communities could be facilitated by institutionalizing processes designed for this purpose. We recommend a variety of mainstreaming policies within the consumer community, as well as mechanisms to generate a strong demand signal that will resonate more strongly with the producer community. We also recommend institutional reforms and methods of incentivizing policy-oriented scientific analysis within the producer community. Our recommendations focus on improving information flow to national security and foreign policy decision makers, but many are relevant to public policy writ large. Recommendations for Producers 1. The scientific community should formally encourage collaborations between natural and social scientists and reward publications in interdisciplinary outlets Incentives could include research funding and honorary awards recognizing service to public policy. 2. Academic merit review should reward research grants and publications targeted at interdisciplinary and/or policy-oriented audiences. Reforms of merit review may require new policies and engaged institutional leadership. Recommendations for Consumers 1. Congress should amend Title VI of the National Defense Education Act
Pulwarty, R. S.
The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC (SREX, AR5), the UNISDR Global Assessment Reports and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for information to support planning under changing rates and emergence of multiple hazards including climate extremes (drought, heat waves, floods). "Decision support" is now a popular term in the climate applications research community. While existing decision support activities can be identified in many disparate settings (e.g. federal, academic, private), the challenge of changing environments (coupled physical and social) is actually one of crafting implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting "user needs"). This includes overcoming weaknesses in co-production models, moving beyond DSSs as simply "software", coordinating innovation mapping and diffusion, and providing fora and gaming tools to identify common interests and differences in the way risks are perceived and managed among the affected groups. We outline the development and evolution of multi-hazard early warning systems in the United States and elsewhere, focusing on climate-related hazards. In particular, the presentation will focus on the climate science and information needed for (1) improved monitoring and modeling, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds, (4) the net benefits of using new information (5) characterizing and bridging the "last mile" in the context of longer-term risk management.
Kennedy, Tara J T; Regehr, Glenn; Baker, G Ross; Lingard, Lorelei
To develop a conceptual framework of the influences on medical trainees' decisions regarding requests for clinical support from a supervisor. Phase 1: members of teaching teams in internal and emergency medicine were observed during regular clinical activities (216 hours) and subsequently completed brief interviews. Phase 2: 36 in depth interviews were conducted using videotaped vignettes to probe tacit influences on decisions to request support. Data collection and analysis used grounded theory methods. Three teaching hospitals in an urban setting in Canada. 124 members of teaching teams on general internal medicine wards and in the emergency department, comprising 31 attending physicians, 57 junior and senior residents, 28 medical students, and eight nurses. Purposeful sampling to saturation was conducted. Trainees' decisions about whether or not to seek clinical support were influenced by three issues: the clinical question (clinical importance, scope of practice), supervisor factors (availability, approachability), and trainee factors (skill, desire for independence, evaluation). Trainees perceived that requesting frequent/inappropriate support threatened their credibility and used rhetorical strategies to preserve credibility. These strategies included building a case for the importance of requests, saving requests for opportune moments, making a plan before requesting support, and targeting requests to specific team members. Trainees consider not only clinical implications but also professional credibility when requesting support from clinical supervisors. Exposing the complexity of this process provides the opportunity to make changes to training programmes to promote timely supervision and provides a framework for further exploration of the impact of clinical training on quality of care of patients.
Patton, Michael Quinn
Culturally and politically science is under attack. The core consequence of perceiving and asserting evaluation as science is that it enhances our credibility and effectiveness in supporting the importance of science in our world and brings us together with other scientists to make common cause in supporting and advocating for science. Other…
Welling, L. A.; Winfree, R.; Mow, J.
Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for managing natural and cultural resources into the future. Impacts are expected to be highly consequential but specific effects are difficult to predict, requiring a flexible process for adaptation planning that is tightly coupled to climate science delivery systems. Scenario planning offers a tool for making science-based decisions under uncertainty. The National Park Service (NPS) is working with the Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers (CSCs), the NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs), and other academic, government, non-profit, and private partners to develop and apply scenarios to long-range planning and decision frameworks. In April 2012, Alaska became the first region of the NPS to complete climate change scenario planning for every national park, preserve, and monument. These areas, which collectively make up two-thirds of the total area of the NPS, are experiencing visible and measurable effects attributable to climate change. For example, thawing sea ice, glaciers and permafrost have resulted in coastal erosion, loss of irreplaceable cultural sites, slope failures, flooding of visitor access routes, and infrastructure damage. With higher temperatures and changed weather patterns, woody vegetation has expanded into northern tundra, spruce and cedar diebacks have occurred in southern Alaska, and wildland fire severity has increased. Working with partners at the Alaska Climate Science Center and the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning the NPS integrates quantitative, model-driven data with qualitative, participatory techniques to scenario creation. The approach enables managers to access and understand current climate change science in a form that is relevant for their decision making. Collaborative workshops conducted over the past two years grouped parks from Alaska's southwest, northwest, southeast, interior and central areas. The emphasis was to identify and connect
Zhang, Chenglong; Guo, Ping
The vague and fuzzy parametric information is a challenging issue in irrigation water management problems. In response to this problem, a generalized fuzzy credibility-constrained linear fractional programming (GFCCFP) model is developed for optimal irrigation water allocation under uncertainty. The model can be derived from integrating generalized fuzzy credibility-constrained programming (GFCCP) into a linear fractional programming (LFP) optimization framework. Therefore, it can solve ratio optimization problems associated with fuzzy parameters, and examine the variation of results under different credibility levels and weight coefficients of possibility and necessary. It has advantages in: (1) balancing the economic and resources objectives directly; (2) analyzing system efficiency; (3) generating more flexible decision solutions by giving different credibility levels and weight coefficients of possibility and (4) supporting in-depth analysis of the interrelationships among system efficiency, credibility level and weight coefficient. The model is applied to a case study of irrigation water allocation in the middle reaches of Heihe River Basin, northwest China. Therefore, optimal irrigation water allocation solutions from the GFCCFP model can be obtained. Moreover, factorial analysis on the two parameters (i.e. λ and γ) indicates that the weight coefficient is a main factor compared with credibility level for system efficiency. These results can be effective for support reasonable irrigation water resources management and agricultural production.
Arnott, J. C.; Lemos, M. C.
A wealth of evidence supports the idea that collaboration between scientists and decision-makers is an influential factor in generating actionable knowledge. Nevertheless, persistent obstacles across the research-policy-practice interface limit the amount of engagement that may be necessary to satisfy demands for information to support decisions. Funding agencies have been identified as one possible driver of change, but few multi-year studies have been conducted to trace the influence of program designs on research practices or other outcomes. To fill this gap, we examine a body of applied science projects (n=120) funded through NOAA's National Estuarine Research Reserve System from 1998-2014. Periodic innovation in the structure of this funding program, including requirements for end user engagement and the inclusion of collaboration specialists, offers a natural experiment from which to test hypotheses about the how funding program design influences research practice, utilization, and broader impacts. Using content analysis of project reports and interviews of project team members, end users, and program managers (n=40), we produce a data that can be analyzed through both statistical and qualitative methods. We find that funder mandates significantly influence the intensity of interaction between researchers and practitioners as well as affect long-term change in research cultures. When interaction intensifies, corresponding gains appear in the readiness of research to support decision-making and the readiness of user groups to incorporate findings into their work. While collaborative methods transform research practice and positively influence the applied contexts in which partnerships occur, it remains less clear whether this actually increases the direct use of scientific to inform decisions. For example, collaboration may lead to outcomes other than new knowledge or knowledge application, yielding many positive outcomes that are distinct from knowledge use
Shah J Miah
Full Text Available This paper presents a contemporary literature review of design science research (DSR studies in the domain of decision support systems (DSS development. The latest studies in the DSS design domain claim that DSR methodologies are the most popular design approach, but many details are still yet to be revealed for supporting this claim. In particular, it is important to thoroughly investigate the trends in either the form or deeper insights in use of DSR in this field. The aim of this study is to analyse the existing DSS design science studies to reveal insights into the use of DSR, so that we can outline research agenda for a special issue, based on findings of analysis. We selected articles (from 2005 to 2014 that were published in seven selected premier IS journals (ranked as A* in the ABDC journal ranking. The selected 57 sample articles are representative of DSS design studies that used DSR in theorising, designing, implementing, and evaluating DSS solutions. We discuss the theoretical positions of DSR for DSS development through six categories: DSS artefacts, DSR methods, DSR views, user involvement, DSS design innovations and problem domains. The findings indicate that new studies are needed to fill the knowledge gap in DSS design science, for more solid theoretical basis in near future.
Steve A. MacLean
Full Text Available When making science matter for conservation, marine conservation practitioners, and managers must be prepared to make the appropriate decision based on the results of the best available science used to inform it. For nearly a decade, many stakeholders encouraged the North Pacific Fishery Management Council to enact protections for deep-sea corals in several canyons in the Eastern Bering Sea slope. In 2014, at the request of the Council, the National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center conducted a strip-transect survey along the Eastern Bering Sea slope to validate the results of a model predicting the occurrence of deep-sea coral habitat. More than 250,000 photos were analyzed to estimate coral, sponge, and sea whip abundance, distribution, height, and vulnerability to anthropogenic damage. The results of the survey confirmed that coral habitat and occurrence was concentrated around Pribilof Canyon and the adjacent slope. The results also confirmed that the densities of corals in the Eastern Bering Sea were low, even where they occurred. After reviewing the best available scientific information, the Council concluded that there is no scientific evidence to suggest that deep-sea corals in the Eastern Bering Sea slope or canyons are at risk from commercial fisheries under the current management structure, and that special protections for deep-sea corals were not warranted.
Prados, A. I.; Blevins, B.; Hook, E.
NASA ARSET http://arset.gsfc.nasa.gov has been providing applied remote sensing training since 2008. The goals of the program are to develop the technical and analytical skills necessary to utilize NASA resources for decision-support. The program has reached over 3500 participants, with 1600 stakeholders from 100 countries in 2015 alone. The target audience for the program are professionals engaged in environmental management in the public and private sectors, such as air quality forecasters, public utilities, water managers and non-governmental organizations engaged in conservation. Many program participants have little or no expertise in NASA remote sensing, and it's frequently their very first exposure to NASA's vast resources. One the key challenges for the program has been the evolution and refinement of its approach to communicating NASA data access, research, and ultimately its value to stakeholders. We discuss ARSET's best practices for sharing NASA science, which include 1) training ARSET staff and other NASA scientists on methods for science communication, 2) communicating the proper amount of scientific information at a level that is commensurate with the technical skills of program participants, 3) communicating the benefit of NASA resources to stakeholders, and 4) getting to know the audience and tailoring the message so that science information is conveyed within the context of agencies' unique environmental challenges.
Matso, Kalle E.; Becker, Mimi L.
Many reports and studies have noted that a significant portion of problem-oriented coastal science does not actually link to decisions. Here, three competitively funded project case studies are studied to determine what funders can and should do to better link science with decisions. The qualitative analysis used for this study indicates that the studied program was seen as being unusually attentive to the issue of linking science to decisions, as opposed to simply generating new knowledge. Nevertheless, much of the data indicate that funders can and should do more. Three ideas figured most prominently in the qualitative data: (1) funders should do more to ensure that the problem itself is defined more thoroughly with people who are envisioned as potential users of the science; (2) funders need to allocate more resources and attention to communicating effectively (with users) throughout the project; and (3) funders need to demand more engagement of users throughout the project. These findings have important implications for how funders review and support science, especially when competitive processes are used. Most importantly, funders should adjust what kind of science they ask for. Secondly, funders need to change who is involved in the review process. Currently, review processes focus on knowledge generation, which means that the reviewers themselves have expertise in that area. Instead, review panels should be balanced between those who focus on knowledge generation and those who focus on linking knowledge to decisions; this is a separate but critical discipline currently left out of the review process.
May 1998 was a momentous event in India's life. At one level, the five nuclear tests marked the culmination of the long debate on India's nuclear status. At another level, they initiated the country's journey towards credible nuclear deterrence. In the eleventh year of its existence as a state with nuclear weapons, India is engaged in a range of activities to meaningfully integrate the nuclear weapon into its national security strategy. The US and the USSR, at the same stage of their lives were engaged in pretty much a similar exercise. However, unlike the superpowers, for whom the immense destructive potential of the atomic weapon and its implications for inter-state relations suddenly burst on the scene and sent them scrambling to craft strategies that could fit the new reality, India's acquisition of nuclear weapons capability, though dictated by circumstances, came with a basic understanding of the ground rules of the game of nuclear deterrence. In fact, it may be recalled that soon after the tests, there was a spate of books and studies on India's nuclear strategy. A draft nuclear doctrine was made public just fifteen months after the tests and operational issues were beginning to be grappled with
Unnithan, N. Prabha
Relates personal experiences of a sociologist of Asian origin in an effort to illustrate problems inherent in the process of becoming accepted as an academic sociologist. Identifies important themes of marginality, credibility, and impression management. Points out ways in which the Asian sociologists can go about achieving credibility. (KO)
Lucassen, T.; Schraagen, J.M.C.
With the rise of user generated content, evaluating the credibility of information has become increasingly important. It is already known that various user characteristics influence the way credibility evaluation is performed. Domain experts on the topic at hand primarily focus on semantic features
Pullin, Andrew S.; Knight, Teri M.
To use environmental program evaluation to increase effectiveness, predictive power, and resource allocation efficiency, evaluators need good data. Data require sufficient credibility in terms of fitness for purpose and quality to develop the necessary evidence base. The authors examine elements of data credibility using experience from critical…
Ørsten, Mark; Burkal, Rasmus
Credibility is frequently represented as both an ideal goal for journalism as a profession (Vultree, 2010) and as an integral part of the survival strategy of the news industry (Meyer, 2004). Yet there exists no widely accepted operationalization of the concept of credibility. In this paper we...... ethics among Danish journalists....
As a result of recent mandates of the Next Generation Science Standards, assessments are a "system of meaning" amidst a paradigm shift toward three-dimensional assessments. This study is motivated by two research questions: 1) how do high school science teachers describe their processes of decision-making in the development and use of three-dimensional assessments and 2) how do high school science teachers negotiate their identities as assessors in designing three-dimensional assessments. An important factor in teachers' assessment decision making is how they identify themselves as assessors. Therefore, this study investigated the teachers' roles as assessors through the Sociocultural Identity Theory. The most important contribution from this study is the emergent teacher assessment sub-identities: the modifier-recycler , the feeler-finder, and the creator. Using a qualitative phenomenological research design, focus groups, three-series interviews, think-alouds, and document analysis were utilized in this study. These qualitative methods were chosen to elicit rich conversations among teachers, make meaning of the teachers' experiences through in-depth interviews, amplify the thought processes of individual teachers while making assessment decisions, and analyze assessment documents in relation to teachers' perspectives. The findings from this study suggest that--of the 19 participants--only two teachers could consistently be identified as creators and aligned their assessment practices with NGSS. However, assessment sub-identities are not static and teachers may negotiate their identities from one moment to the next within socially constructed realms of interpretation known as figured worlds. Because teachers are positioned in less powerful figured worlds within the dominant discourse of standardization, this study raises awareness as to how the external pressures from more powerful figured worlds socially construct teachers' identities as assessors. For teachers
For more than 40 years the APS has worked to improve governmental decision-making, mainly through the Congressional Science and Technology Fellowship program and through occasional studies of important science and technology issues. How productive have these been? How can the APS and other professional societies more effectively combat anti-science propaganda and help the public develop better-informed views about science and technology? How can individual scientists communicate scientific concepts in a more understandable and engaging way? How can we encourage young scientists and students to participate in creating a scientifically responsible future?
Kim, Hyejin; Song, Mi-Kyung
Adults who lack decision-making capacity and a surrogate ("unbefriended" adults) are a vulnerable, voiceless population in health care. But little is known about this population, including how medical decisions are made for these individuals. This integrative review was to examine what is known about unbefriended adults and identify gaps in the literature. Six electronic databases were searched using 4 keywords: "unbefriended," "unrepresented patients," "adult orphans," and "incapacitated patients without surrogates." After screening, the final sample included 10 data-based articles for synthesis. Main findings include the following: (1) various terms were used to refer to adults who lack decision-making capacity and a surrogate; (2) the number of unbefriended adults was sizable and likely to grow; (3) approaches to medical decision-making for this population in health-care settings varied; and (4) professional guidelines and laws to address the issues related to this population were inconsistent. There have been no studies regarding the quality of medical decision-making and its outcomes for this population or societal impact. Extremely limited empirical data exist on unbefriended adults to develop strategies to improve how medical decisions are made for this population. There is an urgent need for research to examine the quality of medical decision-making and its outcomes for this vulnerable population.
Jørgensen, Poul Erik Flyvholm; Isaksson, Maria
. There is also clear evidence that corporate advertising is in fact strongly focussed on communicating credibility with less than 10% of discourse and visuals devoted to credibility-free themes and issues. Research implications/limitations - The study takes a production perspective, using discourse......Purpose - The research draws a detailed picture of how international corporate banks and financial institutions approach image advertising to enhance impressions of their credibility. The purpose of the work is twofold, namely to demonstrate (1) how corporate credibility can be conceptualised...... appeal forms. A corpus of 74 print adverts was then analysed in order to establish how financial marketers use the appeal forms to strengthen their corporate reputations. The patterns of credibility appeals obtained were then linked to the supporting visuals to provide a fuller picture of the industry...
Wade, C.; Rosenthal, I.
In this age of rapid changes, large segments of society no longer trust any institution or authority in regard to pronouncements on what is safe. Because of this distrust, the public has demanded and obtained increased rights for individuals to intervene directly in decisions affecting them. Rosenthal warns that an organization that just fulfills its legal requirements for safety is no longer doing enough. Industry leaders must work toward re-establishing credibility by identifying persons who are potentially at risk as a result of industry activities, involving them in the communication process, and justifying the firm's social benefits. Seeking social legitimacy, chemical manufacturers have formed self-assessment groups and community councils, which have reaped unexpected benefits but have forced them to deal with issues they would have preferred to avoid. To industry leaders who contend that these types of activities are not worth the effort, Rosenthal presents a timely warning. Government and business must reduce public concerns significantly and make stakeholders more willing to tolerate imposed risk because of perceived benefits. It the public's concern is not reduced, we will all be required to make greater and greater investments in an inefficient and largely fruitless pursuit of absolute safety. 16 refs
Wade, C. (ed.) (Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)); Rosenthal, I. (Pennsylvania Univ., Philadelphia, PA (United States). Center for Risk and Decision Processes)
In this age of rapid changes, large segments of society no longer trust any institution or authority in regard to pronouncements on what is safe. Because of this distrust, the public has demanded and obtained increased rights for individuals to intervene directly in decisions affecting them. Rosenthal warns that an organization that just fulfills its legal requirements for safety is no longer doing enough. Industry leaders must work toward re-establishing credibility by identifying persons who are potentially at risk as a result of industry activities, involving them in the communication process, and justifying the firm's social benefits. Seeking social legitimacy, chemical manufacturers have formed self-assessment groups and community councils, which have reaped unexpected benefits but have forced them to deal with issues they would have preferred to avoid. To industry leaders who contend that these types of activities are not worth the effort, Rosenthal presents a timely warning. Government and business must reduce public concerns significantly and make stakeholders more willing to tolerate imposed risk because of perceived benefits. It the public's concern is not reduced, we will all be required to make greater and greater investments in an inefficient and largely fruitless pursuit of absolute safety. 16 refs.
Frandsen, Tove Faber
as potential poor scientific standards journals. Citations to 124 potential predatory journals and poor scientific standards journals are looked up in Scopus and the citing authors analysed in regards to geographic location, publications and citations. The results show that the characteristics of the citing...
For a quarter of a century the Federal Government and the nuclear industry have deliberately deceived the American public about the risks of nuclear power. Facts have been systematically withheld, distorted, and obscured, and calculations have been deliberately biased in order to present nuclear power in an unrealistically favorable light. Most persistent and flagrant have been: (a) attempts to normalize public perception of nuclear accident casualties with those of more familiar accidents; and (b) the cloaking of the objectively undocumentable faith of the atomic energy establishment that a nuclear accident is extremely unlikely in a smokescreen of invalid, pseudoquantitative statistical probabilities in order to convince the public that the chance of an accident is negligible. Prime examples of these abuses are found in the Rasmussen report on nuclear reactor safety and in its representation to the public
Foy, Jeffrey E; LoCasto, Paul C; Briner, Stephen W; Dyar, Samantha
Readers rapidly check new information against prior knowledge during validation, but research is inconsistent as to whether source credibility affects validation. We argue that readers are likely to accept highly plausible assertions regardless of source, but that high source credibility may boost acceptance of claims that are less plausible based on general world knowledge. In Experiment 1, participants read narratives with assertions for which the plausibility varied depending on the source. For high credibility sources, we found that readers were faster to read information confirming these assertions relative to contradictory information. We found the opposite patterns for low credibility characters. In Experiment 2, readers read claims from the same high or low credibility sources, but the claims were always plausible based on general world knowledge. Readers consistently took longer to read contradictory information, regardless of source. In Experiment 3, participants read modified versions of "The Tell-Tale Heart," which was narrated entirely by an unreliable source. We manipulated the plausibility of a target event, as well as whether high credibility characters within the story provided confirmatory or contradictory information about the narrator's description of the target event. Though readers rated the narrator as being insane, they were more likely to believe the narrator's assertions about the target event when it was plausible and corroborated by other characters. We argue that sourcing research would benefit from focusing on the relationship between source credibility, message credibility, and multiple sources within a text.
Purohit, Kiran Dilip
Secondary science teachers make many daily decisions in the enactment of curriculum. Although curriculum materials are widely available to address science content, practices, and skills, the consideration that goes into deciding how and whether to use such materials is complicated by teachers' beliefs about science, their understandings of school-level accountability and testing measures, and their perspectives on the adolescent students they teach. This study addresses the need to understand how teachers consider multiple forces in their enactment of science curriculum. The purpose of this study was to explore the ways that discourses around accountability, science, and science education emerge in the narratives around teachers' decision-making in secondary science classrooms. Using a case study approach, I worked at two school sites with two pairs of science teachers. We established criteria for critical incidents together, then teachers identified critical decision-making moments in their classrooms. We analyzed those incidents together using a consultancy protocol, allowing teachers to focus their thinking on reframing the incidents and imagining other possible outcomes. Using post-structuralist rhizomatics, I assembled analyses of teachers' discussions of the critical incidents in the form of dramatization--scenes and monologues. I then developed two major interpretive strands. First, I connected teachers' sense of having "no time" to blocs of affect tied to larger discourses of national security, teacher accountability, and the joy of scientific discovery. Second, I demonstrated how teachers' concern in following logical pathways and sequences in science relates to the imposition of accountability measures that echo the outcomes-driven logic of the learning sciences. Across both interpretations, I found accountability to be complex, multidirectional, and unpredictable in how it works on and through teachers as they make decisions. Research in this area has
Low degree completion in technical and engineering degrees is a growing concern for policymakers and educators in the United States. This study was an examination of the behaviors of adolescents specific to career decisions related to technology and engineering. The central research question for this study was: do rural, Midwestern high school technical and engineering curricula serve to engage students sufficiently to encourage them to persist through high school while sustaining their interests in technology and engineering careers? Engaging students in technology and engineering fields is the challenge for educators throughout the country and the Midwest. Rural schools have the additional challenge of meeting those issues because of resource limitations. Students in three Midwestern schools were surveyed to determine the level of interest in technology and engineering. The generalized likelihood ratio test was used to overcome concerns for small sample sizes. Accounting for dependent variables, multiple independent variables are examined using descriptive statistics to determine which have greater influence on career decisions, specifically those related to technology and engineering. A typical science curriculum is defined for rural Midwestern high schools. This study concludes that such curriculum achieves the goal of maintaining or increasing student interest and engagement in STEM careers. Furthermore, those schools that incorporate contextual and experiential learning activities into the curriculum demonstrate increased results in influencing student career choices toward technology and engineering careers. Implications for parents, educators, and industry professionals are discussed.
Varshney, Kush R; Alemzadeh, Homa
Machine learning algorithms increasingly influence our decisions and interact with us in all parts of our daily lives. Therefore, just as we consider the safety of power plants, highways, and a variety of other engineered socio-technical systems, we must also take into account the safety of systems involving machine learning. Heretofore, the definition of safety has not been formalized in a machine learning context. In this article, we do so by defining machine learning safety in terms of risk, epistemic uncertainty, and the harm incurred by unwanted outcomes. We then use this definition to examine safety in all sorts of applications in cyber-physical systems, decision sciences, and data products. We find that the foundational principle of modern statistical machine learning, empirical risk minimization, is not always a sufficient objective. We discuss how four different categories of strategies for achieving safety in engineering, including inherently safe design, safety reserves, safe fail, and procedural safeguards can be mapped to a machine learning context. We then discuss example techniques that can be adopted in each category, such as considering interpretability and causality of predictive models, objective functions beyond expected prediction accuracy, human involvement for labeling difficult or rare examples, and user experience design of software and open data.
Fox, Timothy J.; Nelson, J. C.; Rohweder, Jason J.
A Decision Support System (DSS) can be defined in many ways. The working definition used by the U.S. Geological Survey Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center (UMESC) is, “A spatially based computer application or data that assists a researcher or manager in making decisions.” This is quite a broad definition—and it needs to be, because the possibilities for types of DSSs are limited only by the user group and the developer’s imagination. There is no one DSS; the types of DSSs are as diverse as the problems they help solve. This diversity requires that DSSs be built in a variety of ways, using the most appropriate methods and tools for the individual application. The skills of potential DSS users vary widely as well, further necessitating multiple approaches to DSS development. Some small, highly trained user groups may want a powerful modeling tool with extensive functionality at the expense of ease of use. Other user groups less familiar with geographic information system (GIS) and spatial data may want an easy-to-use application for a nontechnical audience. UMESC has been developing DSSs for almost 20 years. Our DSS developers offer our partners a wide variety of technical skills and development options, ranging from the most simple Web page or small application to complex modeling application development.
The United States has aggressively embarked on the challenging task of building a National Information Infrastructure (NII). This infrastructure will have many levels, extending from the building block capital stock that composes the telecommunications system to the multitude of higher tier applications hardware and software tied to this system. This ``White Paper`` presents a vision for a second and third tier national information infrastructure that focuses exclusively on the needs of social science, education, and decision making (NII-SSEDM). NII-SSEDM will provide the necessary data, information, and automated decision support and educational tools needed to help this nation solve its most pressing social problems. The proposed system has five components: `data collection systems; databases; statistical analysis and modeling tools; policy analysis and decision support tools; and materials and software specially designed for education. This paper contains: a vision statement for each component; comments on progress made on each component as of the early 1990s; and specific recommendations on how to achieve the goals described in the vision statements. The white paper also discusses how the NII-SSEDM could be used to address four major social concerns: ensuring economic prosperity; health care; reducing crime and violence; and K-12 education. Examples of near-term and mid-term goals (e.g., pre-and post Year 2000) are presented for consideration. Although the development of NII-SSEDM will require a concerted effort by government, the private sector, schools, and numerous other organizations, the success of NH-SSEDM is predicated upon the identification of an institutional ``champion`` to acquire and husband key resources and provide strong leadership and guidance.
Cook, Carly N; Mascia, Michael B; Schwartz, Mark W; Possingham, Hugh P; Fuller, Richard A
There are many barriers to using science to inform conservation policy and practice. Conservation scientists wishing to produce management-relevant science must balance this goal with the imperative of demonstrating novelty and rigor in their science. Decision makers seeking to make evidence-based decisions must balance a desire for knowledge with the need to act despite uncertainty. Generating science that will effectively inform management decisions requires that the production of information (the components of knowledge) be salient (relevant and timely), credible (authoritative, believable, and trusted), and legitimate (developed via a process that considers the values and perspectives of all relevant actors) in the eyes of both researchers and decision makers. We perceive 3 key challenges for those hoping to generate conservation science that achieves all 3 of these information characteristics. First, scientific and management audiences can have contrasting perceptions about the salience of research. Second, the pursuit of scientific credibility can come at the cost of salience and legitimacy in the eyes of decision makers, and, third, different actors can have conflicting views about what constitutes legitimate information. We highlight 4 institutional frameworks that can facilitate science that will inform management: boundary organizations (environmental organizations that span the boundary between science and management), research scientists embedded in resource management agencies, formal links between decision makers and scientists at research-focused institutions, and training programs for conservation professionals. Although these are not the only approaches to generating boundary-spanning science, nor are they mutually exclusive, they provide mechanisms for promoting communication, translation, and mediation across the knowledge-action boundary. We believe that despite the challenges, conservation science should strive to be a boundary science, which
Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A.; Austin, E. K.
Successful adaptation outcomes depend on decision making based on the best available climate science information. However, a fundamental barrier exists, namely the 'gap' between information that climate science can currently provide and the information that is practically useful for end users and decision makers. This study identifies the major contributing factors to the 'gap' from an Australian perspective and provides recommendations as to ways in which the 'gap' may be narrowed. This was achieved via a literature review, online survey (targeted to providers of climate information and end users of that information), workshop (where both climate scientists and end users came together to discuss key issues) and focus group. The study confirmed that uncertainty in climate science is a key barrier to adaptation. The issue of uncertainty was found to be multi-faceted, with issues identified in terms of communication of uncertainty, misunderstanding of uncertainty and the lack of tools/methods to deal with uncertainty. There were also key differences in terms of expectations for the future - most end users were of the belief that uncertainty associated with future climate projections would reduce within the next five to 10 years, however producers of climate science information were well aware that this would most likely not be the case. This is a concerning finding as end users may delay taking action on adaptation and risk planning until the uncertainties are reduced - a situation which may never eventuate or may occur after the optimal time for action. Improved communication and packaging of climate information was another key theme that was highlighted in this study. Importantly, it was made clear that improved communication is not just about more glossy brochures and presentations by climate scientists, rather there is a role for a program or group to fill this role (coined a 'knowledge broker' during the workshop and focus group). The role of the 'knowledge
Evans, K. J.; Mahajan, S.; Veneziani, C.; Kennedy, J. H.
As global Earth system models are developed to answer an ever-wider range of science questions, software products that provide robust verification, validation, and evaluation must evolve in tandem. Measuring the degree to which these new models capture past behavior, predict the future, and provide the certainty of predictions is becoming ever more challenging for reasons that are generally well known, yet are still challenging to address. Two specific and divergent needs for analysis of the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) model - but with a similar software philosophy - are presented to show how a model developer-based focus can address analysis needs during expansive model changes to provide greater fidelity and execute on multi-petascale computing facilities. A-PRIME is a python script-based quick-look overview of a fully-coupled global model configuration to determine quickly if it captures specific behavior before significant computer time and expense is invested. EVE is an ensemble-based software framework that focuses on verification of performance-based ACME model development, such as compiler or machine settings, to determine the equivalence of relevant climate statistics. The challenges and solutions for analysis of multi-petabyte output data are highlighted from the aspect of the scientist using the software, with the aim of fostering discussion and further input from the community about improving developer confidence and community credibility.
Irene García-Ureta, Ph.D
Full Text Available Communication studies have been integrating the latest developments in cognitive sciences and acknowledging the importance of understanding the subjective processes involved in communication. This article argues that communication studies should also take into account the psychology of the communicator. This article presents the theoretical basis and the results of a training programme designed for audiovisual communicators. The programme is based on the theories of self-efficacy and flow and seeks to improve students’ communication competencies through the use of presentation techniques and psychological skills to tackle communication apprehension. The programme involves an active methodology that is based on modelling, visualisation, immediate feedback and positive reinforcement. A repeated-measures ANOVA shows that the programme successfully decreases the level of communication apprehension, improves the perceived self-efficacy, improves the psychological state needed to perform better in front of the cameras (flow, and improves students’ communication skills. A path analysis proved that the perceived self-efficacy and anxiety levels predict the level of flow during the communication act. At the end of the training programme, those who experienced higher levels of flow and enjoyment during the communication task achieved higher quality levels in their communication exercise. It is concluded that the concepts of self-efficacy and flow facilitate advancing in the understanding of the factors that determine a communicator’s credibility and ability to connect with the audience.
Melkman, Eran P; Hershkowitz, Irit; Zur, Ronit
A major challenge in cases of child sexual abuse (CSA) is determining the credibility of children's reports. Consequently cases may be misclassified as false or deemed 'no judgment possible'. Based on a large national sample of reports of CSA made in Israel in 2014, the study examines child and event characteristics contributing to the probability that reports of abuse would be judged credible. National data files of all children aged 3-14, who were referred for investigation following suspected victimization of sexual abuse, and had disclosed sexual abuse, were analyzed. Cases were classified as either 'credible' or 'no judgment possible'. The probability of reaching a 'credible' judgment was examined in relation to characteristics of the child (age, gender, cognitive delay, marital status of the parents,) and of the abusive event (abuse severity, frequency, perpetrator-victim relationship, perpetrator's use of grooming, and perpetrator's use of coercion), controlling for investigator's identity at the cluster level of the analysis. Of 1563 cases analyzed, 57.9% were assessed as credible. The most powerful predictors of a credible judgment were older age and absence of a cognitive delay. Reports of children to married parents, who experienced a single abusive event that involved perpetrator's use of grooming, were also more likely to be judged as credible. Rates of credible judgments found are lower than expected suggesting under-identification of truthful reports of CSA. In particular, those cases of severe and multiple abuse involving younger and cognitively delayed children are the ones with the lowest chances of being assessed as credible. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Mileti, Antonio; Prete, M Irene; Guido, Gianluigi
This research investigates the effects of mixed emotions on the positioning and on the intention to purchase different categories of branded products (i.e., Attractiveness-products, Expertise-products, and Trustworthiness-products), in relation to their main component of credibility (Ohanian, 1990). On the basis of a focus group (n = 12) aimed to identify the three branded products used as stimuli and a pre-test (n = 240) directed to discover emotions elicited by them, two studies (n = 630; n = 240) were carried out. Positioning and multiple regression analyses showed that positive and negative emotions are positively related with the positioning and the purchase intention of Attractiveness-products, and, respectively, positively and negatively related with those of Trustworthiness-products; whereas negative emotions are negatively associated with those of Expertise-products. Brand Emotional Credibility--i.e., the emotional believability of the brand positioning signals--may help to identify unconscious elements and the simultaneous importance of mixed emotions associated with different products to match consumers' desires and expectations.
O'Grady, Laura; Wathen, C Nadine; Charnaw-Burger, Jill; Betel, Lisa; Shachak, Aviv; Luke, Robert; Hockema, Stephen; Jadad, Alejandro R
Web sites with health-oriented content are potentially harmful if inaccurate or inappropriate medical information is used to make health-related decisions. Checklists, rating systems and guidelines have been developed to help people determine what is credible, but recent Internet technologies emphasize applications that are collaborative in nature, including tags and tag clouds, where site users 'tag' or label online content, each using their own labelling system. Concepts such as the date, reference, author, testimonial and quotations are considered predictors of credible content. An understanding of these descriptive tools, how they relate to the depiction of credibility and how this relates to overall efforts to label data in relation to the semantic web has yet to emerge. This study investigates how structured (pre-determined) and unstructured (user-generated) tags and tag clouds with a multiple word search feature are used by participants to assess credibility of messages posted in online message forums. The targeted respondents were those using web sites message forums for disease self-management. We also explored the relevancy of our findings to the labelling or indexing of data in the context of the semantic web. Diabetes was chosen as the content area in this study, since (a) this is a condition with increasing prevalence and (b) diabetics have been shown to actively use the Internet to manage their condition. From January to March 2010 participants were recruited using purposive sampling techniques. A screening instrument was used to determine eligibility. The study consisted of a demographic and computer usage survey, a series of usability tests and an interview. We tested participants (N=22) on two scenarios, each involving tasks that assessed their ability to tag content and search using a tag cloud that included six structured credibility terms (statistics, date, reference, author, testimonial and quotations). MORAE Usability software (version 3
Moran, Gillian; Muzellec, Laurent
Social networking sites (SNS) offer brands the ability to spread positive electronic Word of Mouth (eWOM) for the purposes of building awareness and acquiring new customers. However, the credibility of eWOM is threatened of late as marketers increasingly try to manipulate eWOM practices on SNS. A greater understanding of eWOM credibility is necessary to better enable marketers to leverage true consumer engagement by generating credible peer-to-peer communications. Yet, to date, there is no on...
Cooley, J.N.; Swindle, D.W. Jr.
A viable approach has been developed for identifying those containment penetrations in a nuclear fuel reprocessing plant which are credible diversion routes. The approach is based upon systematic engineering and design analyses and is applied to each type of penetration to determine which penetrations could be utilized to divert nuclear material from a reprocessing facility. The approach is described and the results of an application are discussed. In addition, the concept of credibility is developed and discussed. For a typical reprocessing plant design, the number of penetrations determined to be credible without process or piping modifications was approx. 16% of the penetrations originally identified
Full Text Available In this paper, using the models from the economic literature, the authors study the credibility level of National Bank of Romania (NRB during the time span Mars 2007 – Mars 2008. We will use three types of credibility indexes - two from the economic literature and one proposed by the authors. Also, we will emphasize the impact of unpredictable shocks - the natural calamities (drought which affected the aggregate supply in the summer of 2007 and the depreciation of RON against the euro - on the NBR credibility.
Teresa Castelao-Lawless; William F. Lawless
Students of history and philosophy of science courses at my University are either naïve robust realists or naïve relativists in relation to science and technology. The first group absorbs from culture stereotypical conceptions, such as the value-free character of the scientific method, that science and technology are impervious to history or ideology, and that science and religion are always at odds. The second believes science and technology were selected arbitrarily by ideologues to have pr...
Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico
This book highlights the interaction between science and politics and between research in economics and European Union policy-making. It focuses on the use of Quantitative tools, Top-down and Bottom-up models in up-stream European decision-making process through five EU policy case studies: energy taxation, climate change, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and internalisation of external costs.
Full Text Available Background and Aims: Managers decision making style can function effectively correct departments in universities and its positive impact on organizational health group will increase efficiency. The present study aims to examine the relationship between the decision-making styles and organizational health departments in Isfahan University of Medical Sciences. Methods: A descriptive and survey research method was utilized. The statistical population included all 594 members of Isfahan Medical Science University Colleges from which a sample of 201 was selected though a classified random sampling The data gathering instruments included, a researcher – made decision making questionnaire and the Ho & Feldmn (1990, organizational health questionnaire. The reliability of the instruments was estimated 0.86 and 0.92 respectively, though Cronbach Alpha coefficient. Utilizing SPSS (15 statistical software, both descriptive and inferential statistics were applied to analyze the data. Results: Consultative decision making scored the highest average among the chairpersons, while the authoritative style scored the lowest average. The departments' organizational health was more than mean level in all dimensions except chairperson's influence. Moreover, a significant relationship was observed between decision making style and organizational health indices. Also a direct relationship was not observed between authoritarian decision makings and institutional integration, chairperson influence, consideration, initiating structure, and academic emphasis. A direct relationship was observed between Consultative decision making and chairperson influence, consideration, initiating structure, resource support, morale, and academic emphasis. A direct relationship was observed between Participative decision making and chairperson Influence, consideration, initiating structure. Conclusion: Consultative and participative decision making can lead to enhancement
The current US nuclear waste disposal program began with passage of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 and was modified by the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987. The Amendments Act made many major changes to the original Act, the most significant of which was the singling out of Yucca Mountain as the only site to be studied for a deep geologic high-level nuclear waste repository. While that decision appeared to simplify and streamline the program, it vastly increased the levels of public resistance and protest, particularly in Nevada. To counter the lack of public acceptance of its programs, the Department of Energy has embarked on countless efforts purportedly aimed at creating public participation. However, nuclear proponents portray a Yucca Mountain repository as inevitable. With this a foregone conclusion, it is apparent to the public that opportunities for meaningful participation do not exist - the only allowable change is in their attitudes. This is purely paternalism and, as such, it is an insult to concerned citizens. Intelligent citizens believe that they cannot play a meaningful role in the current program. Their participation amounts to joining a game or contest that is rigged. All rules, regulations and standards governing the Yucca Mountain project are either changing or proposed to be changed. In a game of golf, players cannot determine their handicap midway through the course. While there are jokes told about such actions in sports, a nuclear waste policy is no laughing matter. In this case, the game, or site characterization program, is now referred to by many as 'advocacy science'. With Yucca Mountain as the only site, and the frantic cries of the commercial nuclear utilities that the lack of a disposal site is a national crisis, the investigations of the site appear to watchful citizens to be aimed at proving its suitability, rather than an objective study. Risk Assessment and risk communication, while very useful when applied
Treichel, J. [Nevada Nuclear Waste Task Force, Las Vegas, NV (United States)
The current US nuclear waste disposal program began with passage of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 and was modified by the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987. The Amendments Act made many major changes to the original Act, the most significant of which was the singling out of Yucca Mountain as the only site to be studied for a deep geologic high-level nuclear waste repository. While that decision appeared to simplify and streamline the program, it vastly increased the levels of public resistance and protest, particularly in Nevada. To counter the lack of public acceptance of its programs, the Department of Energy has embarked on countless efforts purportedly aimed at creating public participation. However, nuclear proponents portray a Yucca Mountain repository as inevitable. With this a foregone conclusion, it is apparent to the public that opportunities for meaningful participation do not exist - the only allowable change is in their attitudes. This is purely paternalism and, as such, it is an insult to concerned citizens. Intelligent citizens believe that they cannot play a meaningful role in the current program. Their participation amounts to joining a game or contest that is rigged. All rules, regulations and standards governing the Yucca Mountain project are either changing or proposed to be changed. In a game of golf, players cannot determine their handicap midway through the course. While there are jokes told about such actions in sports, a nuclear waste policy is no laughing matter. In this case, the game, or site characterization program, is now referred to by many as 'advocacy science'. With Yucca Mountain as the only site, and the frantic cries of the commercial nuclear utilities that the lack of a disposal site is a national crisis, the investigations of the site appear to watchful citizens to be aimed at proving its suitability, rather than an objective study. Risk Assessment and risk communication, while very useful when
Arnold, Julia C.
Health education is to foster health literacy, informed decision-making and to promote health behaviour. To date, there are several models that seek to explain health behaviour (e.g. the Theory of Planned Behaviour or the Health Belief Model). These models include motivational factors (expectancies and values) that play a role in decision-making in health contexts. In this theoretical paper, it is argued that none of these models makes consequent use of expectancy-value pairs. It is further argued that in order to make these models fruitful for science education and for informed decision-making, models should systematically incorporate knowledge as part of the decision-making process. To fill this gap, this theoretical paper introduces The Integrated Model of Decision-Making in Health Contexts. This model includes three types of knowledge (system health knowledge, action-related health knowledge and effectiveness health knowledge) as influencing factors for motivational factors (perceived health threat, attitude towards health action, attitude towards health outcome and subjective norm) that are formed of expectancy-value pairs and lead to decisions. The model's potential for health education in science education as well as research implications is discussed.
Hydrological sciences are increasingly utilized in decision-making contexts that need to manage deep uncertainty, changing conditions and very long-lead times and lifetimes. Traditional optimizing approaches become problematic in such situations. For example, optimizing approaches may underestimate the importance of low probability outcomes, or very uncertain outcomes. Alternative decision-making strategies are therefore increasingly used in hydrological applications, including "bottom-up/top-down", "context-first", "decision-scaling", "assess risk of policy", "robust", "resilient" or "flexible" approaches. These kinds of strategies are typically designed to handle very uncertain and diverse outcomes, and often start from the particular decision-making context, in contrast to more traditional "predict-then-act" or "science first" approaches. Contemporary research in philosophy of science stress the influence of value judgments and norms in scientific assessments. In particular, this literature points out that implicit anticipated applications often influence choices made in scientific assessments. Furthermore, this literature also emphasize that choices made at within scientific assessments have consequences for decision-making later on. One reason is that it is often difficult for decision-makers to see what choices are made and the implications of these choices. Another reason is that information that could be of use for decision-makers are lost at an early stage. For example, the choice to focus on central estimates and not providing assessments on more unlikely outcomes is a choice that has consequences for what outcomes are taken into account in the decision-making process. This paper develops this argument and then analyzes the implications of these new developments for hydrological science. One implication of the increasing use of the new breed of planning strategies is that a broader range of uncertainty in scientific assessments becomes desirable in order
The nexus represents a multi-dimensional means of scientific enquiry encapsulating the complex and non-linear interactions between water, energy, food, environment with the climate, and wider implications for society. These resources are fundamental for human life but are negatively affected by climate change. Methods of analysis, which are currently used, were not built to represent complex systems and are insufficiently equipped to understand positive and negative externalities generated by interactions among different stakeholders involved in the nexus. In addition misalignment between the science that scientists produce and the evidence decision-makers need leads to a range of complexities within the science-policy interface. Adopting a bottom-up, participative approach, the results of five themed workshops organized in the UK (focusing on: shocks and hazards, infrastructure, local economy, governance and governments, finance and insurance) featuring 80 stakeholders from academia, government and industry allow us to map perceptions of opportunities and challenges of better informing decision making on climate change when there is a strong disconnect between the evidence scientists provide and the actions decision makers take. The research identified key areas where gaps could be bridged between science and action and explores how a knowledge co-production approach can help identify opportunities for building a more effective and legitimate policy agenda to face climate risks. Concerns, barriers and opportunities to better inform decision making centred on four themes: communication and collaboration, decision making processes, social and cultural dimensions, and the nature of responses to nexus shocks. In so doing, this analysis provides an assessment of good practice on climate decision-making and highlights opportunities for improvement to bridge gaps in the science-policy interface
Full Text Available This paper aims at analyzing the co-movement between fiscal policy and monetary policy rules in the context of price stabilization. More specifically, we observe the potential impact of fiscal policy credibility on the price stabilization in the inflation targeting framework. Motivated by the fact that empirical studies concerning this aspect are still limited, we take the case of Indonesia over the period 2001-2013. Based on the quarterly data analysis, we found that the impact of credibility typically depends on characteristics of fiscal rules commitment. On one hand, the credibility of debt rule reduces the inflation rate. In contrast, the incredible deficit rule policy does not have any impact on the inflation rate and therefore does not support to inflation targeting. Given those results, we conclude that credibility matters in stabilizing price levels. Accordingly, those findings suggest tightening coordination between monetary and fiscal policy to maintain fiscal sustainability in accordance with price stabilization policy
Engel, Andrew J; Bogduk, Nikolai
Diagnostic blocks are used in different ways for the diagnosis of spinal pain, but their validity has not been fully evaluated. Four clinical protocols were analyzed mathematically to determine the probability of correct responses arising by chance. The complement of this probability was adopted as a measure of the credibility of correct responses. The credibility of responses varied from 50% to 95%, and was determined less by the agents used but more by what information was given to patients and if the agents were fully randomized for each block. Randomized, comparative local anesthetic blocks offer a credibility of 75%, but randomized, placebo-controlled blocks provide a credibility of 95%, and are thereby suitable as a criterion standard for diagnostic blocks. © 2016 American Academy of Pain Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org.
Selejan, O; Muresanu, D F; Popa, L; Muresanu-Oloeriu, I; Iudean, D; Buzoianu, A; Suciu, S
Today, more than ever, knowledge that interfaces appearance analysis is a crucial point in human-computer interaction field has been accepted. As nowadays virtually anyone can publish information on the web, the credibility role has grown increasingly important in relation to the web-based content. Areas like trust, credibility, and behavior, doubled by overall impression and user expectation are today in the spotlight of research compared to the last period, when other pragmatic areas such as usability and utility were considered. Credibility has been discussed as a theoretical construct in the field of communication in the past decades and revealed that people tend to evaluate the credibility of communication primarily by the communicator's expertise. Other factors involved in the content communication process are trustworthiness and dynamism as well as various other criteria but to a lower extent. In this brief review, factors like web page aesthetics, browsing experiences and user experience are considered.
Niall Ferguson; Moritz Schularick
This paper asks whether developing countries can reap credibility gains from submitting policy to a strict monetary rule. Following earlier work, we look at the gold standard era (1880-1914) as a "natural experiment" to test whether adoption of a rule-based monetary framework such as the gold standard increased policy credibility. On the basis of the largest possible dataset covering almost sixty independent and colonial borrowers in the London market, we challenge the traditional view that g...
Guillermo Calvo; Carlos A. Végh Gramont
This paper analyzes stabilization policy under predetermined exchange rates in a cash-in-advance, staggered-prices model. Under full credibility, a reduction in the rate of devaluation results in an immediate and permanent reduction in the inflation rate, with no effect on output or consumption. In contrast, a non-credible stabilization results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The inflation rate of home goods remains above the rate of devaluation throughout th...
Hecht, Alan D; Ferster, Aaron; Summers, Kevin
When the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was established nearly 50 years ago, the nation faced serious threats to its air, land, and water, which in turn impacted human health. These threats were effectively addressed by the creation of EPA (in 1970) and many subsequent landmark environmental legislations which in turn significantly reduced threats to the Nation's environment and public health. A key element of historic legislation is research aimed at dealing with current and future problems. Today we face national and global challenges that go beyond classic media-specific (air, land, water) environmental legislation and require an integrated paradigm of action and engagement based on (1) innovation based on science and technology, (2) stakeholder engagement and collaboration, and (3) public education and support. This three-pronged approach recognizes that current environmental problems, include social as well as physical and environmental factors, are best addressed through collaborative problem solving, the application of innovation in science and technology, and multiple stakeholder engagement. To achieve that goal, EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) is working directly with states and local communities to develop and apply a suite of accessible decision support tools (DST) that aim to improve environmental conditions, protect human health, enhance economic opportunity, and advance a resilient and sustainability society. This paper showcases joint EPA and state actions to develop tools and approaches that not only meet current environmental and public health challenges, but do so in a way that advances sustainable, healthy, and resilient communities well into the future. EPA's future plans should build on current work but aim to effectively respond to growing external pressures. Growing pressures from megatrends are a major challenge for the new Administration and for cities and states across the country. The recent hurricanes hitting
It is expected that research conducted by graduate students in science education provide research findings which can be utilized as evidence based foundations for making decisions to improve science education practices in schools. However, lack of credibility of research become one of the factors cause idleness of thesis and dissertation in the context of education improvement. Credibility of a research is constructed by its scientificness. As a result, enhancement of scientific characters of graduate research needs to be done to close the gap between research and practice. A number of guiding principles underlie educational researchs as a scientific inquiry are explored and applied in this paper to identify common shortages of some thesis and dissertation manuscripts on science education reviewed in last two years.
Full Text Available This paper presents an overlapping generations model for a small open economy. The model is calibrated to fit data for Turkey. Simulations suggest that for a fairly open economy such as Turkey, credibility and liquidity constraints matter and the choice of income taxation rate, the mix of government spending and the long-run government debt/GDP ratio can all significantly affect the economic growth. The paper also examines the effectiveness of fiscal policy under different levels of liquidity constraint in an open economy within a dynamic framework. It shows that liquidity constraints can affect the outcome of any fiscal policy. Hence fiscal policy is even more important for the less developed economies of the world.
McLean, Chikako Akamatsu
Applying theories of cultural dimensions, teacher credibility, and nonverbal immediacy, this chapter explores classroom management techniques used by Asian female teachers to establish credibility. (Contains 1 note.)
Gurney, R. J.; Emmett, B.; McDonald, A.
Environmental managers and policy makers face a challenging future trying to accommodate growing expectations of environmental well-being, while subject to maturing regulation, constrained budgets and a public scrutiny that expects easier and more meaningful access to data and decision logic. To support such a challenge requires new tools and new approaches. The EVOp is an initiative from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) designed to deliver proof of concept for these new tools and approaches. A series of exemplar 'big catchment science questions' are posed and the prospects for their solution are assessed. These are then used to develop cloud solutions for serving data, models, visualisation and analysis tools to scientists, regulators, private companies and the public, all of whom have different expectations of what environmental information is important. Approaches are tested regularly with users using SCRUM. The VO vision encompasses seven key ambitions: i. being driven by the need to contribute to the solution of major environmental issues that impinge on, or link to, catchment science ii. having the flexibility and adaptability to address future problems not yet defined or fully clarified iii. being able to communicate issues and solutions to a range of audiences iv. supporting easy access by a variety of users v. drawing meaningful information from data and models and identifying the constraints on application in terms of errors, uncertainties, etc vi. adding value and cost effectiveness to current investigations by supporting transfer and scale adjustment thus limiting the repetition of expensive field monitoring addressing essentially the same issues in varying locations vii. promoting effective interfacing of robust science with a variety of end users by using terminology or measures familiar to the user (or required by regulation), including financial and carbon accounting, whole life or fixed period costing, risk as probability or as
Schumm, Walter R
Every social science researcher must make a number of methodological decisions when planning and implementing research projects. Each such decision carries with it both advantages and limitations. The decisions faced and made by Regnerus (2012) are discussed here in the wider context of social science literature regarding same-sex parenting. Even though the apparent outcomes of Regnerus's study were unpopular, the methodological decisions he made in the design and implementation of the New Family Structures Survey were not uncommon among social scientists, including many progressive, gay and lesbian scholars. These decisions and the research they produced deserve considerable and continued discussion, but criticisms of the underlying ethics and professionalism are misplaced because nearly every methodological decision that was made has ample precedents in research published by many other credible and distinguished scholars. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A description is given of a class project concerned with examining a population problem and making some political decisions to solve it. A list of topics for the students to research as a basis for their decisions is provided. (DT)
Enquist, C.; Jackson, S. T.; Garfin, G. M.
Translational ecology is an approach by which ecologists, stakeholders, and decision-makers work collaboratively to develop and deliver ecological research that, ideally, results in actionable science that leads to improved environmental decision-making. We analyzed a diverse array of real-world case studies and distilled six principles that characterize the practice of translational ecology: communication, commitment, collaboration, engagement, process, and decision-framing. In this talk, we highlight a subset of the case studies that illustrate these principles. Notably, we found that translational ecology is distinct from both basic and applied ecological research. As a practice, the approach deliberately extends research beyond theory or opportunistic applications, motivated by a search for outcomes that directly serve the needs of natural resource managers and decision-makers. Translational ecology is also distinct from knowledge co-production in that it does not require deep engagement between collaborators, although incorporating differing modes of co-production relative to the decision context, associated time frame, and available financial resources can greatly enhance the translational approach. Although there is a need for incentives to pursue in this type of work, we found that the creativity and context-specific knowledge of resource managers, practitioners, and decision-makers informs and enriches the scientific process, helping shape actionable science. Moreover, the process of addressing research questions arising from on-the-ground management issues, rather than from the top-down or expert-oriented perspectives of traditional science, can foster the long-term trust and commitment that is critical for long-term, sustained engagement between partners. Now, perhaps more than ever, the climate and environmental issues facing society are complex, often politicized, and value-laden. We argue that ecological science should play a key role in informing
Full Text Available During the past two years the main features of the Romanian economy were the strong economic growth and the presence of a relatively high surplus on the foreign exchange market. Among the direct consequences of that surplus were the gradually declining depreciation rate, the tendency towards real appreciation of the leu against the euro-USD basket as compared to 2000, the generalization of anticipations regarding that appreciation and the decreases in the interest rates. The decreases in the interest rates and elimination of the well-known costs of high and volatile inflation brought about important benefits in terms of economic growth. Indeed, the lower inflation stimulated investments by contributing to the extension of decision-making horizons. Is it possible to repeat the same trend also in 2003?
Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The very conditions for risk assessment present to the public, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception, as are some social psychological concepts. If trust is to be established in a country where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman. 57 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs.
Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The very conditions for risk assessment present to the public, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception, as are some social psychological concepts. If trust is to be established in a country where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman. 57 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs
Cvitanovic, C; McDonald, J; Hobday, A J
Effective conservation requires knowledge exchange among scientists and decision-makers to enable learning and support evidence-based decision-making. Efforts to improve knowledge exchange have been hindered by a paucity of empirically-grounded guidance to help scientists and practitioners design and implement research programs that actively facilitate knowledge exchange. To address this, we evaluated the Ningaloo Research Program (NRP), which was designed to generate new scientific knowledge to support evidence-based decisions about the management of the Ningaloo Marine Park in north-western Australia. Specifically, we evaluated (1) outcomes of the NRP, including the extent to which new knowledge informed management decisions; (2) the barriers that prevented knowledge exchange among scientists and managers; (3) the key requirements for improving knowledge exchange processes in the future; and (4) the core capacities that are required to support knowledge exchange processes. While the NRP generated expansive and multidisciplinary science outputs directly relevant to the management of the Ningaloo Marine Park, decision-makers are largely unaware of this knowledge and little has been integrated into decision-making processes. A range of barriers prevented efficient and effective knowledge exchange among scientists and decision-makers including cultural differences among the groups, institutional barriers within decision-making agencies, scientific outputs that were not translated for decision-makers and poor alignment between research design and actual knowledge needs. We identify a set of principles to be implemented routinely as part of any applied research program, including; (i) stakeholder mapping prior to the commencement of research programs to identify all stakeholders, (ii) research questions to be co-developed with stakeholders, (iii) implementation of participatory research approaches, (iv) use of a knowledge broker, and (v) tailored knowledge management
Teng, W.; Kempler, S.; Chiu, L.; Doraiswamy, P.; Liu, Z.; Milich, L.; Tetrault, R.
Monitoring global agricultural crop conditions during the growing season and estimating potential seasonal production are critically important for market development of U.S. agricultural products and for global food security. Two major operational users of satellite remote sensing for global crop monitoring are the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and the U.N. World Food Programme (WFP). The primary goal of FAS is to improve foreign market access for U.S. agricultural products. The WFP uses food to meet emergency needs and to support economic and social development. Both use global agricultural decision support systems that can integrate and synthesize a variety of data sources to provide accurate and timely information on global crop conditions. The Goddard Space Flight Center Earth Sciences Distributed Active Archive Center (GES DAAC) has begun a project to provide operational solutions to FAS and WFP, by fully leveraging results from previous work, as well as from existing capabilities of the users. The GES DAAC has effectively used its recently developed prototype TRMM Online Visualization and Analysis System (TOVAS) to provide ESE data and information to the WFP for its agricultural drought monitoring efforts. This prototype system will be evolved into an Agricultural Information System (AIS), which will operationally provide ESE and other data products (e.g., rainfall, land productivity) and services, to be integrated into and thus enhance the existing GIS-based, decision support systems of FAS and WFP. Agriculture-oriented, ESE data products (e.g., MODIS-based, crop condition assessment product; TRMM derived, drought index product) will be input to a crop growth model in collaboration with the USDA Agricultural Research Service, to generate crop condition and yield prediction maps. The AIS will have the capability for remotely accessing distributed data, by being compliant with community-based interoperability standards, enabling easy access to
Colombo, Matteo; Bucher, Leandra; Sprenger, Jan
Explanation is a central concept in human psychology. Drawing upon philosophical theories of explanation, psychologists have recently begun to examine the relationship between explanation, probability and causality. Our study advances this growing literature at the intersection of psychology and philosophy of science by systematically investigating how judgments of explanatory power are affected by (i) the prior credibility of an explanatory hypothesis, (ii) the causal framing of the hypothesis, (iii) the perceived generalizability of the explanation, and (iv) the relation of statistical relevance between hypothesis and evidence. Collectively, the results of our five experiments support the hypothesis that the prior credibility of a causal explanation plays a central role in explanatory reasoning: first, because of the presence of strong main effects on judgments of explanatory power, and second, because of the gate-keeping role it has for other factors. Highly credible explanations are not susceptible to causal framing effects, but they are sensitive to the effects of normatively relevant factors: the generalizability of an explanation, and its statistical relevance for the evidence. These results advance current literature in the philosophy and psychology of explanation in three ways. First, they yield a more nuanced understanding of the determinants of judgments of explanatory power, and the interaction between these factors. Second, they show the close relationship between prior beliefs and explanatory power. Third, they elucidate the nature of abductive reasoning. PMID:28928679
Teeguarden, Justin G; Tan, Yu-Mei; Edwards, Stephen W; Leonard, Jeremy A; Anderson, Kim A; Corley, Richard A; Kile, Molly L; Simonich, Staci M; Stone, David; Tanguay, Robert L; Waters, Katrina M; Harper, Stacey L; Williams, David E
Driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computation, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the "systems approaches" used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concept in the toxicological sciences. Aggregate exposure pathways offer an intuitive framework to organize exposure data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathways and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum for more meaningful integration of exposure assessment and hazard identification. Together, the two frameworks form and inform a decision-making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based, or exposure-based decision making.
Bitzer, Sonja; Albertini, Nicola; Lock, Eric; Ribaux, Olivier; Delémont, Olivier
In an attempt to grasp the effectiveness of forensic science in the criminal justice process, a number of studies introduced some form of performance indicator. However, most of these indicators suffer from different weaknesses, from the definition of forensic science itself to problems of reliability and validity. We suggest the introduction of the concept of utility of the clue as an internal evaluation indicator of forensic science in the investigation. Utility of the clue is defined as added value of information, gained by the use of traces. This concept could be used to assess the contribution of the trace in the context of the case. By extension, a second application of this concept is suggested. By formalising and considering, a priori, the perceived utility of using traces, we introduce the notion of expected utility that could be used as decision factor when choosing which traces to use, once they have been collected at the crime scene or from an object in the laboratory. In a case-based approach, utility can be assessed in the light of the available information to evaluate the investigative contribution of forensic science. In the decision-making process, the projection or estimation of the utility of the clue is proposed to be a factor to take into account when triaging the set of traces. Copyright © 2015 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Nahari, Galit; Glicksohn, Joseph; Nachson, Israel
Two experiments were conducted in order to find out whether textual features of narratives differentially affect credibility judgments made by judges having different levels of absorption (a disposition associated with rich visual imagination). Participants in both experiments were exposed to a textual narrative and requested to judge whether the narrator actually experienced the event he described in his story. In Experiment 1, the narrative varied in terms of language (literal, figurative) and plausibility (ordinary, anomalous). In Experiment 2, the narrative varied in terms of language only. The participants' perceptions of the plausibility of the story described and the extent to which they were absorbed in reading were measured. The data from both experiments together suggest that the groups applied entirely different criteria in credibility judgments. For high-absorption individuals, their credibility judgment depends on the degree to which the text can be assimilated into their own vivid imagination, whereas for low-absorption individuals it depends mainly on plausibility. That is, high-absorption individuals applied an experiential mental set while judging the credibility of the narrator, whereas low-absorption individuals applied an instrumental mental set. Possible cognitive mechanisms and implications for credibility judgments are discussed.
Patton, M Q
Varying philosophical and theoretical orientations to qualitative inquiry remind us that issues of quality and credibility intersect with audience and intended research purposes. This overview examines ways of enhancing the quality and credibility of qualitative analysis by dealing with three distinct but related inquiry concerns: rigorous techniques and methods for gathering and analyzing qualitative data, including attention to validity, reliability, and triangulation; the credibility, competence, and perceived trustworthiness of the qualitative researcher; and the philosophical beliefs of evaluation users about such paradigm-based preferences as objectivity versus subjectivity, truth versus perspective, and generalizations versus extrapolations. Although this overview examines some general approaches to issues of credibility and data quality in qualitative analysis, it is important to acknowledge that particular philosophical underpinnings, specific paradigms, and special purposes for qualitative inquiry will typically include additional or substitute criteria for assuring and judging quality, validity, and credibility. Moreover, the context for these considerations has evolved. In early literature on evaluation methods the debate between qualitative and quantitative methodologists was often strident. In recent years the debate has softened. A consensus has gradually emerged that the important challenge is to match appropriately the methods to empirical questions and issues, and not to universally advocate any single methodological approach for all problems.
French, R.; Cifuentes-Lorenzen, A.; Kooris, D.; O'Donnell, J.
The Connecticut Institute for Resilience and Climate Adaptation (CIRCA) provides actionable science to accelerate adaptation and resilience strategies for Connecticut's inland and coastal waterways communities. Connecticut's coastal area has some of the most valuable real estate in the United States due to the Metro North and Shoreline East commuter rail line that connects all 24 coastal municipalities through transit hubs to the New York City metropolitan region. On its way to NY, the rail runs through neighborhoods and coastal marshes and crosses local and state roads. During coastal storms and increasingly at high tides as the sea level rises, the rail line may act like a berm, but also cuts off coastal neighborhoods from the upland. When it crosses a road in a marsh setting, the clearance restriction also severely limits communities' options for moving or elevating the roadway. These flooded roadways and vulnerable transit hubs are already a challenge for municipalities and will continue to be in the future. However, given scarce resources, it is not sufficient to simply know that they are vulnerable using existing low resolution mapping tools. Communities need site-specific, exact estimates of frequency of flooding, incorporating future sea level rise, to make cost determinations and accurately project the useful life of their investment. To address this need CIRCA developed high-resolution dynamic coastal flood risk models and partnered with municipal staff, regional planning bodies and the state to apply them to infrastructure decision-making. We will present three case studies of this approach: 1) the implementation of the US HUD National Disaster Resilience Competition pilot project of road elevation and berm construction in partnership with the Department of Housing and the City of Bridgeport; 2) the City of New London's first rail and ferry transit hub vulnerability assessment for sea level rise and storms and 3) the flooding frequency of a state road
Vann, Timi S.; Venezia, Robert A.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth Science Enterprise is engaged in applications of NASA Earth science and remote sensing technologies for public health. Efforts are focused on establishing partnerships with those agencies and organizations that have responsibility for protecting the Nation's Health. The program's goal is the integration of NASA's advanced data and technology for enhanced decision support in the areas of disease surveillance and environmental health. A focused applications program, based on understanding partner issues and requirements, has the potential to significantly contribute to more informed decision making in public health practice. This paper intends to provide background information on NASA's investment in public health and is a call for partnership with the larger practice community.
Jafarey, Aamir Mustafa; Iqbal, Saima Pervaiz; Hassan, Mariam
The concept of mandatory ethical review of research involving human participants is gradually taking root in Pakistani institutions. Based on the opinions of Institutional Review Board (IRB) members from institutions across the country, the process faces several challenges which threaten its integrity. The lack of registration or accreditation for IRBs has resulted in a wide variation in the calibre and working of such Boards. Despite the recent growth in numbers of people with formal bioethics degrees in the country, a majority of membership remains without any formal training for the work expected from them in ethical review. External pressures to influence deliberations, conflict of interest issues within board leadership and inconsistent application of review requirements all contribute in undermining the reliability of the process. Some of the most significant threats to independent and uninfluenced functioning of such boards arise from institutional leadership itself. In the opinions of IRB members, the review process has to be uniform, consistent and trustworthy if it is to gain the respect of researchers, and IRB need to be given the autonomous space to make independent decisions. Otherwise there is a real danger of IRBs being relegated to being no more than rubber stamping committees.
Policy-makers today have almost infinite climate-relevant scientific and other information available to them. The problem for climate change decision-making isn't missing science or inadequate knowledge of climate risks; the problem is that the "right" climate change actionable knowledge isn't getting to the right decision-maker, or is getting there too early or too late to effectively influence her decision-making. Actionable knowledge is not one-size-fit-all, and for a given decision-maker might involve scientific, economic, or risk-based information. Simply producing more and more information as we are today is not the solution, and actually makes it harder for individual decision-makers to access "their" actionable knowledge. The Climatographers began building the Climate Web five years ago to test the hypothesis that a knowledge management system could help navigate the gap between infinite information and individual actionable knowledge. Today the Climate Web's more than 1,500 index terms allow instant access to almost any climate change topic. It is a curated public-access knowledgebase of more than 1,000 books, 2,000 videos, 15,000 reports and articles, 25,000 news stories, and 3,000 websites. But it is also much more, linking together tens of thousands of individually extracted ideas and graphics, and providing Deep Dives into more than 100 key topics from changing probability distributions of extreme events to climate communications best practices to cognitive dissonance in climate change decision-making. The public-access Climate Web is uniquely able to support cross-silo learning, collaboration, and actionable knowledge dissemination. The presentation will use the Climate Web to demonstrate why knowledge management should be seen as a critical component of science and policy-making collaborations.
I have entitle my speech open-quotes Vigilance and Reason-The Keys to Continued Credibilityclose quotes. A partitioning of the words gives insight into my view of where we are, where we may be going, and that we have control of our fate. open-quotes Continuedclose quotes indicates that I believe, at present, the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Codes and Standards process has credibility. open-quotes Keysclose quotes connotes that we are at a crossroads and something must be done to stay on track. And open-quotes Vigilance and Reasonclose quotes suggest that we can achieve our goal of continued credibility through exercising vigilance and reason. We cannot rest on our laurels. We must take conscious, positive actions to strengthen the credibility of our products; otherwise we will backslide. It is up to us
Renn, O.; Kastenholz, H.G.
This article deals with the most important results of communication and psychological studies on credibility and trust in emergency situations. The central insight in this paper has been that communication about the different elements of credibility needs to start before any emergency in order to build trust among the various constituents. In addition, emergency handling institutions need to reflect the experiences they have made during an emergency and involve the public in a social learning process to improve the existing emergency plans. Credibility of institutions relies on the congruence between the expectations of the public with respect to the demanded performance and the preception of the actual performance. Any institution needs to adjust its communication about public expectations as well as institute sufficient control and monitoring to improve actual performance. (orig.) [de
Cutcliffe, J R; McKenna, H P
Qualitative research is increasingly recognized and valued and its unique place in nursing research is highlighted by many. Despite this, some nurse researchers continue to raise epistemological issues about the problems of objectivity and the validity of qualitative research findings. This paper explores the issues relating to the representativeness or credibility of qualitative research findings. It therefore critiques the existing distinct philosophical and methodological positions concerning the trustworthiness of qualitative research findings, which are described as follows: quantitative studies should be judged using the same criteria and terminology as quantitative studies; it is impossible, in a meaningful way, for any criteria to be used to judge qualitative studies; qualitative studies should be judged using criteria that are developed for and fit the qualitative paradigm; and the credibility of qualitative research findings could be established by testing out the emerging theory by means of conducting a deductive quantitative study. The authors conclude by providing some guidelines for establishing the credibility of qualitative research findings.
Parkin, Beth Louise
The elite athlete routinely performs impressive cognitive feats. Not only do they undertake complex decision-making seemingly intuitively, they do so under conditions of intense pressure, limited time and restricted resources. Decision-making refers to the cognitive processes that underpin the selection of one course of action from several alternatives (Reason, 1990); it is essential for high-quality performance in sport (Farrow & Raab, 2008; Jordet & Hartman, 2008; Paserman, 2007). Decision-...
Ørsten, Mark; Burkal, Rasmus
of credibility in Danish news media. Credibility is defined at an institutional level by two dimensions: A) the accuracy and reliability of the news stories featured in leading Danish news media, and B) journalists’ knowledge and understanding of the Danish code of press ethics. The results show that sources...... only find objective errors in 14.1% of the news stories, which is a lower figure than most other studies report. The results also show that Danish journalists find bad press ethics to be an increasing problem and attribute this problem to increased pressure in the newsroom....
Hawley, S.C.; Kathren, R.L.
Credible accidents were developed and analyzed for TRIGA and TRIGA-fueled reactors. The only potential for offsite exposure appears to be from a fuel-handling accident that, based on highly conservative assumptions, would result in dose equivalents of less than or equal to 1 mrem to the total body from noble gases and less than or equal to 1.2 rem to the thyroid from radioiodines. Credible accidents from excess reactivity insertions, metal-water reactions, lost, misplaced, or inadvertent experiments, core rearrangements, and changes in fuel morphology and ZrH/sub x/ composition are also evaluated, and suggestions for further study provided
Hiroshima University High School (HUHS) has devised and carried out overseas exchange programs on ESD issues for 7 years. These programs have been carried out as a part of a government-aided project called SSH (Super Science High School) *1. To start with, we had cooperative study program with a school in Germany in 2009, and next year with a school in Korea, and then gradually have expanded the cooperative schools. Since 2013, we have worked with schools in four countries; Korea, Thailand, Czech and Germany. Science lesson modules here refers to an assembly of a set of lessons, newly developed and improved for the project. These modules characteristically require the students to make decisions by themselves on given problems. In the course of the decision making, students learn what kind of data or facts should be presented as evidence and how they can make their decisions known to others. Among several modules we have designed, the one introduced here deals with the use of solar energy, which we carried out with a school in Korea in 2014-2015. It also includes lessons of the fuel cells using energy from hydrogen gas generated by solar cells. It aims to develop global human resources through carefully planned activities. First, the students of both schools make mixed groups and conduct experiments in physics, chemistry or biology on a given problem related to solar energy. Then they discuss in groups using data obtained from the experiments and through the Internet as evidence. After the thorough discussion, each group gives a presentation on their decision. The analysis of the presentations and the questionnaire to the students revealed the following points: 1) Students have come to have multidimensional perspectives on the utilization of solar energy. 2) Students have come to combine the results of different experiments when making decisions. 3) Students have developed flexible attitudes toward other cultures. 4) Students have developed communication skills in
Gin-Rong Liu Peiwen Lu
Full Text Available We live in challenging times with a heightened sense of uncertainty and unpredictability. Climate change, with its impact on disruptive events as well as gradual trends, has been addressed in scientific studies and become increasingly important in policymaking. This rises up a great need on scientific integration and knowledge transformation. The Taiwan Integrated Research Programme on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (TaiCCAT is formed under this concern. Directing by the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST, it carries a strong intention to explore and to conduct adequate knowledge of climate change and adaptation strategies for decision-making supports. The TaiCCAT highly recommends the approach of cross-disciplinary collaboration from environmental studies to adaptation governance. The result can therefore be more contributive to reflect the complexity of the changing world.
This article examines currency option pricing within a credible target zone arrangement where interventions at the boundaries push the exchange rate back into its fluctuation band. Valuation of such options is complicated by the requirement that the reflection mechanism should prevent the arbitrage
This article examines currency option pricing within a credible target zone arrangement where interventions at the boundaries push the exchange rate back into its fluctuation band. Valuation of such options is complicated by the requirement that the reflection mechanism should prevent the arbitrage
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is two-fold; first, it studies the impact of the credibility of fiscal rule policy on the stability of output growth; second, it compares the effectiveness of fiscal rule policy to discretionary and automatic stabilizer fiscal policies to address the fluctuation of output growth. Employing quarterly data over the period 2001-2013 in the case of Indonesia, we obtain that the credible debt rule leads to a decrease in the volatility of output growth while the non-credible deficit rule does not have any effect. Both unsystematic and systematic components of discretionary fiscal policy have a stabilizing function. Interestingly, the automatic stabilization tends to induce the volatility of output growth. Given those results, we infer that government spending is not a good automatic stabilizer. It seems that the lower ratio of government expenditure to GDP along with improving credibility of deficit rule policy has a smoother effect on the economy. Therefore, they implicitly support expenditure cuts when implementing fiscal adjustment with the purpose of reaching fiscal sustainability in the short-run and a stable economic growth in the long-run.
Alan D. Bright; Andrew W. Don Carlos; Jerry J. Vaske; James D. Absher
Understanding how residents of the wildlandurban interface (WUI) react to information about firewise behavior can enhance efforts to communicate safety information to the public. This study explored the multiple roles of source credibility on the elaboration and impact of messages about conducting firewise behaviors in the WUI. A mail-back survey to residents of the...
Flynn, Stephen V.; Korcuska, James S.
The authors conducted a 3-phase investigation into the credible standards for phenomenological research practices identified in the literature and endorsed by a sample of counselor education qualitative research experts. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, the findings offer evidence that professional counseling has a distinctive format in which…
In this paper, a hybrid algorithm based on fuzzy simulation and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is applied to determine fuzzy reliability indices of distribution system. This approach can obtain fuzzy expected values and their variances of reliability indices, and the credibilities of reliability indices meeting specified ...
G. Galati (Gabriele); Z. Gorgi (Zion); R. Moessner (Richhild); C. Zhou (Chen)
textabstractThis paper investigates how the perceived risk that the euro area will experience deflation has evolved over time, and what this risk implies for the credibility of the ECB. We use a novel data set on market participants’ perceptions of short- to long-term deflation risk implied by
Jaylson Jair da Silveira
Full Text Available We derive a best-reply monetary policy when the confidence by price setters on the monetary authority’s commitment to price level targeting may be both incomplete and sticky. We find that complete confidence (or full credibility is not a necessary condition for the achievement of a price level target even when heterogeneity in firms’ price level expectations is endogenously time-varying and may emerge as a long-run equilibrium outcome. In fact, in the absence of exogenous perturbations to the dynamic of confidence building, it is the achievement of a price level target for long enough that, due to stickiness in the state of confidence, rather ensures the conquering of full credibility. This result has relevant implications for the conduct of monetary policy in pursuit of price stability. One implication is that setting a price level target matters more as a means to provide monetary policy with a sharper focus on price stability than as a device to conquer credibility. As regards the conquering of credibility for monetary policy, it turns out that actions speak louder than words, as the continuing achievement of price stability is what ultimately performs better as a confidence-building device.
Hommes, C.; Lustenhouwer, J.
We derive policy implications for an inflation targeting central bank, who's credibility is endogenous and depends on its past ability to achieve its targets. We do this in a New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous agents and boundely rational expectations. Our assumptions about expectation
The objective of this study, is to examine the issue of the assessment of the credibility of management disclosures about a company from the perspective of the investors. It presents the results from a questionnaire survey of a sample of financial Analysts, accountants and other investor. The data were analyzed using the one ...
Andsager, Julie L.
Examines perceptions of the credibility of male and female syndicated political columnists. Finds that college students exhibited little prejudice against female versus male bylines in political interpretive columns. Finds a small tendency for male readers to evaluate male bylines higher in stereotypical ways, but female readers do not do this.…
Most analyses of conflict assume that conflicting groups act in a unitary fashion. This assumption is often violated: to reduce their risk of replacement, group leaders prevent both group members and soldiers from acting collectively, making it difficult for leaders to make credible commitments to them. Lifting the assumption that groups are unitary shifts the analysis of a wide range of c...
Lioma, Christina; Simonsen, Jakob Grue; Larsen, Birger
Recent discussions on alternative facts, fake news, and post truth politics have motivated research on creating technologies that allow people not only to access information, but also to assess the credibility of the information presented to them by information retrieval systems. Whereas technology...
Livermore, Jeffrey A.; Scafe, Marla G.; Wiechowski, Linda S.; Maier, David J.
The purpose of this study was to evaluate students' perceptions of their peer's credibility based on email addresses. The survey was conducted at a community college in Michigan where all students were registered and actively taking at least one course. The survey results show that a student's selection of an email address does influence other…
Livermore, Jeffrey A.; Wiechowski, Linda S.; Scafe, Marla G.
The purpose of this study was to evaluate faculty perceptions of student credibility based on email addresses. The survey was conducted at an upper division business school in Michigan where all students have completed at least two years of college courses. The survey results show that a student's selection of an email address does influence the…
Livermore, Jeffrey A.; Scafe, Marla G.; Wiechowski, Linda S.
The purpose of this study was to evaluate students' perceptions of faculty credibility based on email addresses. The survey was conducted at an upper division business school in Michigan where all students have completed at least two years of college courses. The survey results show that a faculty member's selection of an email address does…
The most common outranking methods are the preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation ( PROMETHEE ) and the elimination and...Brans and Ph. Vincke, “A Preference Ranking Organization Method: (The PROMETHEE Method for Multiple Criteria Decision-Making),” Management Science 31... PROMETHEE ). This method needs a preference function for each criterion to compute the degree of preference.72 “The credibility of the outranking
The objective of this study was to generate a baseline understanding of current policy responses to climate : change/variability at the state and regional transportation-planning and -decision levels. Specifically, : researchers were interested in th...
The St. Louis River represents a complex natural resource management problem. Current ecosystem management decisions must address extensive sediment remediation and habitat restoration goals for the lower river and associated port, as well as recreational users who value differen...
Ji, Jiao; Anderson, David; Wu, Xinchun
Conceptualized by the self-determination theory, this interpretive study examined 23 museum educators' perspectives from five Chinese science museums to understand their work motivation in relation to their professional practice of working in museums. Research outcomes showed that, Chinese science museum educators' work motivation followed a…
Lees, D. S.; Cohen, T.; Deans, M. C.; Lim, D. S. S.; Marquez, J.; Heldmann, J. L.; Hoffman, J.; Norheim, J.; Vadhavk, N.
Minerva integrates three capabilities that are critical to the success of NASA analogs. It combines NASA's Exploration Ground Data Systems (xGDS) and Playbook software, and MIT's Surface Exploration Traverse Analysis and Navigation Tool (SEXTANT). Together, they help to plan, optimize, and monitor traverses; schedule and track activity; assist with science decision-making and document sample and data collection. Pre-mission, Minerva supports planning with a priori map data (e.g., UAV and satellite imagery) and activity scheduling. During missions, xGDS records and broadcasts live data to a distributed team who take geolocated notes and catalogue samples. Playbook provides live schedule updates and multi-media chat. Post-mission, xGDS supports data search and visualization for replanning and analysis. NASA's BASALT (Biologic Analog Science Associated with Lava Terrains) and FINESSE (Field Investigations to Enable Solar System Science and Exploration) projects use Minerva to conduct field science under simulated Mars mission conditions including 5 and 15 minute one-way communication delays. During the recent BASALT-FINESSE mission, two field scientists (EVA team) executed traverses across volcanic terrain to characterize and sample basalts. They wore backpacks with communications and imaging capabilities, and carried field portable spectrometers. The Science Team was 40 km away in a simulated mission control center. The Science Team monitored imaging (video and still), spectral, voice, location and physiological data from the EVA team via the network from the field, under communication delays. Minerva provided the Science Team with a unified context of operations at the field site, so they could make meaningful remote contributions to the collection of 10's of geotagged samples. Minerva's mission architecture will be presented with technical details and capabilities. Through the development, testing and application of Minerva, we are defining requirements for the
Emily R. Newsom
Full Text Available Abstract As climate-science graduate students at the University of Washington, we had the opportunity to engage in a political process focused on implementing legislation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Washington State. Our insights gained from this rare, first-hand, experience may be particularly relevant to other climate scientists. We argue that inflexible research goals within the United States climate-science community limit the relevance of the knowledge our community creates. The mismatch between climate-science research and the information needs of policy makers, while widely acknowledged in certain domains, has yet to be fully appreciated within many earth science disciplines. Broadening the climate-science training of graduate students to include education on the uses of climate information outside of academic settings would both inform and motivate new research directions, and engender validation of non-traditional research within disciplinary cultures.
Models that simulate the transport and behaviour of radionuclides in the environment are used extensively in the nuclear industry for safety and licensing purposes. They are needed to calculate derived release limits for new and operating facilities, to estimate consequences following hypothetical accidents and to help manage a real emergency. But predictions generated for these purposes are essentially meaningless unless they are accompanied by a quantitative estimate of the confidence that can be placed in them. For example, in an emergency where there has been an accidental release of radioactivity to the atmosphere, decisions based on a validated model with small uncertainties would likely be very different from those based on an untested model, or on one with large uncertainties. This paper begins with a discussion of some general methods for establishing the credibility of model predictions. The focus will be on environmental transport models but the principles apply to models of all kinds. Establishing the credibility of a model is not a trivial task, It involves a number of tasks including face validation, verification, experimental validation and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. The remainder of the paper will present quantitative results relating to the credibility of environmental transport models. Model formation, choice of parameter values and the influence of the user will all be discussed as sources of uncertainty in predictions. The magnitude of uncertainties that must be expected in various applications of the models will be presented. The examples used throughout the paper are drawn largely from recent work carried out in BIOMOVS and VAMP. (DM)
Intuition is widely used in clinical decision making yet its use is underestimated compared to scientific decision-making methods. Information processing is used within scientific decision making and is methodical and analytical, whereas intuition relies more on a practitioner's perception. Intuition is an unconscious process and may be referred to as a 'sixth sense', 'hunch' or 'gut feeling'. It is not underpinned by valid and reliable measures. Expert health professionals use a rapid, automatic process to recognise familiar problems instantly. Intuition could therefore involve pattern recognition, where experts draw on experiences, so could be perceived as a cognitive skill rather than a perception or knowing without knowing how. The NHS places great importance on evidence-based practice but intuition is seemingly becoming an acceptable way of thinking and knowing in clinical decision making. Recognising nursing as an art allows intuition to be used and the environment or situation to be interpreted to help inform decision making. Intuition can be used in conjunction with evidence-based practice and to achieve good outcomes and deserves to be acknowledged within clinical practice.
Full Text Available Information searching is the most popular activity in Internet. Usually the search engine provides the search results ranked by the relevance. However, for a certain purpose that concerns with information credibility, particularly citing information for scientific works, another approach of ranking the search engine results is required. This paper presents a study on developing a new ranking method based on the credibility of information. The method is built up upon two well-known algorithms, PageRank and Citation Analysis. The result of the experiment that used Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient to compare the proposed rank (generated by the method with the standard rank (generated manually by a group of experts showed that the average Spearman 0 < rS < critical value. It means that the correlation was proven but it was not significant. Hence the proposed rank does not satisfy the standard but the performance could be improved.
Full Text Available Information searching is the most popular activity in Internet. Usually the search engine provides the search results ranked by the relevance. However, for a certain purpose that concerns with information credibility, particularly citing information for scientific works, another approach of ranking the search engine results is required. This paper presents a study on developing a new ranking method based on the credibility of information. The method is built up upon two well-known algorithms, PageRank and Citation Analysis. The result of the experiment that used Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient to compare the proposed rank (generated by the method with the standard rank (generated manually by a group of experts showed that the average Spearman 0 < rS < critical value. It means that the correlation was proven but it was not significant. Hence the proposed rank does not satisfy the standard but the performance could be improved.
Despite the enormous interest in human capital analytics (HCA), organizations have struggled to move from operational reporting to HCA. This is mainly the result of the inability of analytics teams to establish credible internal HCA and demonstrate its value. In this article, we stress the import......Despite the enormous interest in human capital analytics (HCA), organizations have struggled to move from operational reporting to HCA. This is mainly the result of the inability of analytics teams to establish credible internal HCA and demonstrate its value. In this article, we stress...... the importance of conceptualizing HCA as an organizational capability and suggest a method for its operationalization. We argue that the development of HCA within an organization requires working with three dimensions of HCA: data quality, analytics capabilities, and strategic ability to act. Moreover, such work...
In a capitalist economy the most valued assets are not money, shares or facilities, but credibility. Lack of money can ruin a company, but often it is reputation that delivers the final blow. It has become challenging to safeguard reputation in a world where Communication is increasingly connected and with such an intense and lightning fast flow of information. This is particularly true for the electricity sector - a commodity so prevalent in everyday modern life, but, whose business dealings, are hardly known by the general public. When it comes to nuclear energy, the challenge of establishing an effective Communication with transparency and credibility touches on even more complex elements. The topic of this paper is the scenario through which the Communication process, along with its characteristics and approaches, unfolds between the nuclear sector and the Brazilian media. (author)
Kim L. Viljoen
Full Text Available Background: Studies conducted have shown that half of the South African population uses either or both Facebook and Twitter social networking sites for social satisfaction and for the evaluation of products and purchase decisions. This is a direct result of the continuous technological advancements worldwide and the permeative nature of social media. Objective: The focus of this study is to evaluate the credibility of Facebook and Twitter messages while establishing which of the mediums is perceived as more believable by consumers. The results of this research direct information technology practitioners, business managers, business owners, and marketing managers on the viability of these communication mediums. Method: A positivistic paradigm was used in this study through the use of a descriptive research design which consisted of a survey of 446 respondents located in East London, Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Respondents were either selected randomly or through convenience sampling and were between age 18 and 55. Results: It was established that both Facebook and Twitter are significantly related to the independent variable of ‘intention to purchase’, with Twitter having a stronger correlation with the independent variable than Facebook. The context of the study was set in relation to the purchase intention of specific mobile phone brands. Conclusion: Based on these results, it can be concluded that Twitter electronic word-of-mouth can be considered to be more credible than Facebook electronic word-of-mouth; thus this should be considered when advertising or promoting products via these mediums.
A new reactor, TR-2, of 5 MW, designed in cooperation with CEN/GRENOBLE is under construction in the open pool of TR-1 reactor of 1 MW set up by AMF atomics at the Cekmece Nuclear Research and Training Center. In this report the fission product inventory and doses released after the maximum credible accident have been studied. The diffusion of the gaseous fission products to the environment and the potential radiation risks to the population have been evaluated
email@example.com. Figure 3. Trusted Suppliers Source: “ Managing Information Communications Technology Global Supply Chain Risk Awareness...Defense AT&L: July-August 2016 18 Supply Chain Risk Management An Introduction to the Credible Threat Heath Ferry n Van Poindexter 19...cybersecurity breach. This article examines the elements of supply chain risk management , the national security risks associated with exploitation, and
pressure and subliminal seduction; but always through a sequence of decisions, either conscious or not. Network characteristics cannot be deduced from the...Time, Communication , and the Nervous System”, in Norbert Wiener: Collected Works, Volume IV, pp.220-252, The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA (1985). 16. P
Agronomic and Environmental research experiments result in data that are analyzed using statistical methods. These data are unavoidably accompanied by uncertainty. Decisions about hypotheses, based on statistical analyses of these data are therefore subject to error. This error is of three types,...
Walker, A.H.; Robinson, J.H.
The potential for environmental damage is the principal rationale for responding to oil spills in the United States, and most other countries. Numerous factors influence response decisions regarding containment, cleanup and treatment operations. Important influences which drive how decisions will be made include politics, economics, environmental concerns, public relations, and aesthetics. A common misperceptions that scientific information cannot be generated on a real-time basis, that is, that scientific studies generally require more time to conduct than the spill response time frame permits. This paper discusses how to organize a scientific program in support of operational decision-making during oil spills, using NOAA's Scientific Support Team as an illustrative example. The paper also describes various types of scientific activities, including use of types of off-the-shelf technology and instrumentation, which can be conducted at the time of a spill, such as those implemented during the EXXON VALDEZ. Lastly, the paper provides guidance on how to generate and mange valid scientific information in ways that are relevant to timely response decision-making
Full Text Available Although the field has seen great advances in hurricane prediction and response, the economic toll from hurricanes on U.S. communities continues to rise. We present data from Hurricanes Earl (2010, Irene (2011, Isaac (2012, and Sandy (2012 to show that individual and household decisions contribute to this vulnerability. From phone surveys of residents in communities threatened by impending hurricanes, we identify five decision biases or obstacles that interfere with residents’ ability to protect themselves and minimize property damage: (1 temporal and spatial myopia, (2 poor mental models of storm risk, (3 gaps between objective and subjective probability estimates, (4 prior storm experience, and (5 social factors. We then discuss ways to encourage better decision making and reduce the economic and emotional impacts of hurricanes, using tools such as decision defaults (requiring residents to opt out of precautions rather than opt in and tailoring internet-based forecast information so that it is local, specific, and emphasizes impacts rather than probability.
Geoscientists and decision-makers have the same responsibility toward the society: reducing the damaging consequences induced by natural phenomena. They have to work together, geoscientists to improve the knowledge and decision-makers to take the "best" decision, both to design and implement balanced solutions, both to communicate. Feedback shows that if the collaboration between them has already improved, a lot has still to be done, especially in terms of communication; endless litany, geoscientists don't communicate in the right way! In a hyperspecialized technological and segmented society with sophisticated methods of communication, geoscientists don't use appropriate tools and terminology. It's true, and a lot of examples can be shown that highlight this! Risks is based on complex concepts, on notions that are poorly understood, even by scientists themselves, especially the concepts of probability and occurrence of phenomena. But the problem rest as well on the role and on the responsibility of the geoscientists. Risk management experts address geosciences and technology to identify problems and define protection, including prohibitive measures (such as not allowing building in hazardous areas). Policy makers and local planners want to know where to develop territories. On one hand the identification of problems, on the other hand the needs of solutions. Dialectic is not the same. When responsibility, money and image are the three main pillars of decision-making, long-term modeling and uncertainty, are the basic ones for geosciences. In our participative democracies people want to be actor of the development of their own territories; they want more freedom, more protection and less tax. Face to unrealistic political answers geoscientists have to explain and convince. It's not possible to gain on everything and some are going to loose. Shall geoscientists let decision-makers communicate on topics they hardly understand? No. Shall geoscientists communicate on
Park, SoHyun; Oh, Heung-Kwon; Park, Gibeom; Suh, Bongwon; Bae, Woo Kyung; Kim, Jin Won; Yoon, Hyuk; Kim, Duck-Woo; Kang, Sung-Bum
Despite the rapid penetration of social media in modern life, there has been limited research conducted on whether social media serves as a credible source of health information. In this study, we propose to identify colorectal cancer information on Twitter and assess its informational credibility. We collected Twitter messages containing colorectal cancer-related keywords, over a 3-month period. A review of sample tweets yielded content and user categorization schemes. The results of the sample analysis were applied to classify all collected tweets and users, using a machine learning technique. The credibility of the information in the sampled tweets was evaluated. A total of 76,119 tweets were analyzed. Individual users authored the majority of tweets (n = 68,982, 90.6%). They mostly tweeted about news articles/research (n = 16,761, 22.0%) and risk/prevention (n = 14,767, 19.4%). Medical professional users generated only 2.0% of total tweets (n = 1509), and medical institutions rarely tweeted (n = 417, 0.6%). Organizations tended to tweet more about information than did individuals (85.2% vs 63.1%; P users. Coupled with the Internet's potential to increase social support, Twitter may contribute to enhancing public health and empowering users, when used with proper caution.
Antonio L. MANZANERO
Full Text Available One of the main obstacles in the way of access to justice for the victims with intellectual disability comes from the stereotypes referred to their ability to produce a statement at police legal procedures, with the consequence that some consider their statements less reliable than the rest of the victims, and others considerate their statements more reliable given their inability to create complex lies. This article reviews three of the most recent studies done by the UCM group of Psychology of Testimony, with the objective of analyzing the role of experience and intuition in the evaluation of credibility in people with intellectual disability (ID, and also it aims to prove whether the credibility analysis procedures such as Reality Monitoring (RM and Statement Validity Assessment (SVA would be valid procedures to discriminate between real and false statements within these collectives. From the results of these studies, it can be deducted that experience may not seem to be enough in order to discriminate between real and simulated victims, but analyzing the characteristics of the statements as the only indicator doesn’t seem to be enough either. As an alternative, the general procedure HELPT is proposed for the evaluation of credibility of people with ID.
Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.
Betsch, Cornelia; Böhm, Robert; Airhihenbuwa, Collins O; Butler, Robb; Chapman, Gretchen B; Haase, Niels; Herrmann, Benedikt; Igarashi, Tasuku; Kitayama, Shinobu; Korn, Lars; Nurm, Ülla-Karin; Rohrmann, Bernd; Rothman, Alexander J; Shavitt, Sharon; Updegraff, John A; Uskul, Ayse K
This review introduces the concept of culture-sensitive health communication. The basic premise is that congruency between the recipient's cultural characteristics and the respective message will increase the communication's effectiveness. Culture-sensitive health communication is therefore defined as the deliberate and evidence-informed adaptation of health communication to the recipients' cultural background in order to increase knowledge and improve preparation for medical decision making and to enhance the persuasiveness of messages in health promotion. To achieve effective health communication in varying cultural contexts, an empirically and theoretically based understanding of culture will be indispensable. We therefore define culture, discuss which evolutionary and structural factors contribute to the development of cultural diversity, and examine how differences are conceptualized as scientific constructs in current models of cultural differences. In addition, we will explicate the implications of cultural differences for psychological theorizing, because common constructs of health behavior theories and decision making, such as attitudes or risk perception, are subject to cultural variation. In terms of communication, we will review both communication strategies and channels that are used to disseminate health messages, and we will discuss the implications of cultural differences for their effectiveness. Finally, we propose an agenda both for science and for practice to advance and apply the evidence base for culture-sensitive health communication. This calls for more interdisciplinary research between science and practice but also between scientific disciplines and between basic and applied research. © The Author(s) 2015.
The March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and its tsunami killed 18,508 people, including the missing (National Police Agency report as of April 2014) and raise the Level 7 accident at TEPCO's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station in Japan. The problems revealed can be viewed as due to a combination of risk-management, risk-communication, and geoethics issues. Japan's preparations for earthquakes and tsunamis are based on the magnitude of the anticipated earthquake for each region. The government organization coordinating the estimation of anticipated earthquakes is the "Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion" (HERP), which is under the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). Japan's disaster mitigation system is depicted schematically as consisting of three layers: seismology, civil engineering, and disaster mitigation planning. This research explains students in geoscience should study geoethics as part of their education related Tohoku earthquake and the Level 7 accident at TEPCO's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station. Only when they become practicing professionals, they will be faced with real geoethical dilemmas. A crisis such as the 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident, will force many geoscientists to suddenly confront previously unanticipated geoethics and risk-communication issues. One hopes that previous training will help them to make appropriate decisions under stress. We name it "decision science".
McGreavy, Bridie; Webler, Thomas; Calhoun, Aram J K
In this study, we describe local decision maker attitudes towards vernal pools to inform science communication and enhance vernal pool conservation efforts. We conducted interviews with town planning board and conservation commission members (n = 9) from two towns in the State of Maine in the northeastern United States. We then mailed a questionnaire to a stratified random sample of planning board members in August and September 2007 with a response rate of 48.4% (n = 320). The majority of survey respondents favored the protection and conservation of vernal pools in their towns. Decision makers were familiar with the term "vernal pool" and demonstrated positive attitudes to vernal pools in general. General appreciation and willingness to conserve vernal pools predicted support for the 2006 revisions to the Natural Resource Protection Act regulating Significant Vernal Pools. However, 48% of respondents were unaware of this law and neither prior knowledge of the law nor workshop attendance predicted support for the vernal pool law. Further, concerns about private property rights and development restrictions predicted disagreement with the vernal pool law. We conclude that science communication must rely on specific frames of reference, be sensitive to cultural values, and occur in an iterative system to link knowledge and action in support of vernal pool conservation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Lackett, J.; Ojima, D. S.; McNeeley, S.
As climate change impacts become more apparent in our environment, action is needed to enhance the social-ecological system resilience. Incorporating principles which lead to actionable research and project co-development, when appropriate, will facilitate building linkages between the research and the natural resource management communities. In order to develop strategies to manage for climatic and ecosystem changes, collaborative actions are needed between researchers and resource managers to apply appropriate knowledge of the ecosystem and management environments to enable feasible solutions and management actions to respond to climate change. Our team has been involved in developing and establishing a research and engagement center, the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC), for the US Department of Interior, to support the development and translation of pertinent climate science information to natural resource managers in the north central portion of the United States. The NC CSC has implemented a platform to support the Resource for Vulnerability Assessment, Adaptation, and Mitigation Projects (ReVAMP) with research, engagement, and training activities to support resource managers and researchers. These activities are aimed at the co-production of appropriate response strategies to climate change in the region, in particular to drought-related responses. Through this platform we, with other partners in the region, including the Department of Interior and the Department of Agriculture, are bringing various training tools, climate information, and management planning tools to resource managers. The implementation of ReVAMP has led to development of planning efforts which include a more explicit representation of climate change as a driver of drought events in our region. Scenario planning provides a process which integrates management goals with possible outcomes derived from observations and simulations of ecological impacts of climate change. Co
Pawel Baranowski; Pawel Gajewski
Credible forward guidance should reduce the perceived impact of macroeconomic variables on the interest rate. Using a micro-level dataset we test the perception of monetary policy in Poland among professional forecasters and find evidence for forward guidance credibility.
Sertoglu, Aysegul Ermec; Catlı, Ozlem; Korkmaz, Sezer
The purpose of this study is to test whether the source credibility affects buying intention and measure the perceived credibility differences between created spokesperson and celebrity endorser. The influence that endorser credibility dimensions (i.e. attractiveness, trustworthiness and expertise) have on purchase intentions of 326 young consumers has been examined. The results showed that all of the three credibility dimensions for both celebrity endorser and created spokesperson have a pos...
Aysegul Ermec Sertoglu; Ozlem Catli; Sezer Korkmaz
The purpose of this study is to test whether the source credibility affects buying intention and measure the perceived credibility differences between created spokesperson and celebrity endorser. The influence that endorser credibility dimensions (i.e. attractiveness, trustworthiness and expertise) have on purchase intentions of 326 young consumers has been examined. The results showed that all of the three credibility dimensions for both celebrity endorser and created spokesperson have a pos...
Kulin, Elin; Blomgren, Linnéa
Background: To align with the new trend of using social media in the marketing mix, product placement has been adapted to social media platforms as one strategy to create attention. Especially on Instagram, product placements have gained popularity among companies. While scholars have focused on measuring the effectiveness of the strategy, suggesting that credibility is one component necessary for success, a gap in the research is illuminated when focusing on what makes a product placement on...
Stal, Marc; Sutter, Corina; Ammann, Walter
The world's growing population in combination with expanding urbanisation, globalisation and climate change has greatly aggravated the risk potential to all communities and nations. These increasing risks imply the intensification of worldwide disasters, hence collaborations and worldwide knowledge exchange to mitigate these negative impacts is mandatory. How can these exchange and collaboration activities take place? The Global Risk Forum, GRF Davos addresses the variety of risks that face communities with a special focus on climate change, natural hazards, environmental degradation as well as technical, biological risks, pandemics and terrorism - all across different political institutions, national and international organisations, countries and business sectors. One of GRF's main goals is to bridge the gap between science and practice and to promote and accelerate the worldwide exchange of know-how and experience. GRF Davos aims at targeting solutions and promoting good practice in integral risk management and climate change adaptation.. The Forum also provides and manages a network for decision-makers, practitioners and experts from politics, government, IGOs, business, science, NGOs, media and the public and works on maintaining and expanding these networks constantly to enable the dissemination of disaster and risk reduction techniques. In order to link practice, science, policy and decision making, GRF Davos has three pillars, the Risk Academy, the International Disaster and Risk Conferences and Workshops (IDRC) as well as the online Platform for Networks. With its pillars, the GRFs aims at reducing vulnerability for all types of risks and disasters to protect life, property, environment, critical infrastructure and all means of business for the worldwide community on a sustainable basis.
Mahoney, W. P., III
For more than 30 years, the Research Applications Laboratory (RAL) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has conducted fundamental and applied research focused on developing decision support tools spanning multiple end-user groups representing a variety of economic sectors. Technology transfer is a primary mission of the laboratory where innovation is a key attribute and multidisciplinary research and development are the norm. Application areas include, aviation, surface transportation, wind and solar energy prediction, climate, weather and health, numerical weather prediction, biological and chemical plume dispersion for homeland security, flood prediction and water resource management, soil condition and crop maturity prediction among other application areas. The majority of the developed capabilities have been operationalized by the public, private, and academic sectors. Several commercial companies have been successfully formed around the technologies (e.g., Weather Information Technologies, Inc., Peak Weather Resources, Inc., and Global Weather Corporation) and many existing companies have improved their products by utilizing the RAL-developed weather system advancements (The Weather Channel, WSI, Schneider Electric, Xcel Energy, United Airlines, Vaisala, Panasonic, Idaho Power, etc.). The economic benefit estimates of implementing these technologies have ranged from billions of dollars in avoided commercial aircraft accidents over the last 30 years to 10s of millions of dollars of annual savings by state departments of transportation via more efficient ice and snow maintenance operations. Research and development at RAL is connected to the Broader Impacts Criterion of NSF and its focus on research that results in significant economic or societal impact. This talk will describe our research-to-operations process and discuss several technology transfer examples that have led to commercial opportunities.
... 8 Aliens and Nationality 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Credible fear determinations involving..., DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE IMMIGRATION REGULATIONS PROCEDURES FOR ASYLUM AND WITHHOLDING OF REMOVAL Credible Fear of Persecution § 1208.30 Credible fear determinations involving stowaways and applicants for...
Gipson, P.S.; Ballard, W.B.; Nowak, R.M.
We evaluated the credibility of early literature about famous North American wolves (Canis lupus). Many famous wolves were reported to be older than they actually were, and we estimated they did not live long enough to have caused purported damage to livestock and game animals. Wolf kill rates on free-ranging livestock appeared to be inflated compared to recently published kill rates on native ungulates and livestock. Surplus killing of sheep and goats may have accounted for some high kill rates, but surplus killing of free-ranging longhorn cattle probably did not occur. Some famous wolves may actually have been dogs (C. familiaris), wolf-dog hybrids, or possibly coyote (C. latrans)-dog hybrids. We documented instances where early authors appeared to embellish or fabricate information about famous wolves. Caution should be exercised when using early literature about wolves as a basis for wolf management decisions.
Chih, Wen-Hai; Wang, Kai-Yu; Hsu, Li-Chun; Huang, Su-Chen
Electronic word of mouth (eWOM) has been an important factor influencing consumer purchase decisions. Using the ABC model of attitude, this study proposes a model to explain how eWOM affects online discussion forums. Specifically, we propose that platform (Web site reputation and source credibility) and customer (obtaining buying-related information and social orientation through information) factors influence purchase intentions via perceived positive eWOM review credibility, as well as product and Web site attitudes in an online community context. A total of 353 online discussion forum users in an online community (Fashion Guide) in Taiwan were recruited, and structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to test the research hypotheses. The results indicate that Web site reputation, source credibility, obtaining buying-related information, and social orientation through information positively influence perceived positive eWOM review credibility. In turn, perceived positive eWOM review credibility directly influences purchase intentions and also indirectly influences purchase intentions via product and Web site attitudes. Finally, we discuss the theoretical and managerial implications of the findings.
Hardin, D.; Graves, S.; Sever, T.; Irwin, D.
In 2002 and 2003 NASA, the World Bank and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) joined with the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD) to develop an advanced decision support system for Mesoamerica (named SERVIR). Mesoamerica - composed of the seven Central American countries and the five southernmost states of Mexico - makes up only a small fraction of the world's land surface. However, the region is home to approximately eight percent of the planet's biodiversity (14 biosphere reserves, 31 Ramsar sites, 8 world heritage sites, 589 protected areas) and 45 million people including more than 50 different ethnic groups. Mesoamerica's biological and cultural diversity are severely threatened by human impact and natural disasters including extensive deforestation, illegal logging, water pollution, slash and burn agriculture, earthquakes, hurricanes, drought, and volcanic eruption. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA/MSFC), together with the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and the SERVIR partners are developing state-of-the-art decision support tools for environmental monitoring as well as disaster prevention and mitigation in Mesoamerica. These partners are contributing expertise in space-based observation with information management technologies and intimate knowledge of local ecosystems to create a system that is being used by scientists, educators, and policy makers to monitor and forecast ecological changes, respond to natural disasters, and better understand both natural and human induced effects. The decision support and environmental monitoring data products are typically formatted as conventional two-dimensional, static and animated imagery. However, in addition to conventional data products and as a major portion of our research, we are employing commercial applications that generate three-dimensional interactive visualizations that allow data products to be viewed from multiple angles and at
Haddaway, Neal R; Rytwinski, Trina
Meta-analysis is becoming increasingly popular in the field of ecology and environmental management. It increases the effective power of analyses relative to single studies, and allows researchers to investigate effect modifiers and sources of heterogeneity that could not be easily examined within single studies. Many systematic reviewers will set out to conduct a meta-analysis as part of their synthesis, but meta-analysis requires a niche set of skills that are not widely held by the environmental research community. Each step in the process of carrying out a meta-analysis requires decisions that have both scientific and statistical implications. Reviewers are likely to be faced with a plethora of decisions over which effect size to choose, how to calculate variances, and how to build statistical models. Some of these decisions may be simple based on appropriateness of the options. At other times, reviewers must choose between equally valid approaches given the information available to them. This presents a significant problem when reviewers are attempting to conduct a reliable synthesis, such as a systematic review, where subjectivity is minimised and all decisions are documented and justified transparently. We propose three urgent, necessary developments within the evidence synthesis community. Firstly, we call on quantitative synthesis experts to improve guidance on how to prepare data for quantitative synthesis, providing explicit detail to support systematic reviewers. Secondly, we call on journal editors and evidence synthesis coordinating bodies (e.g. CEE) to ensure that quantitative synthesis methods are adequately reported in a transparent and repeatable manner in published systematic reviews. Finally, where faced with two or more broadly equally valid alternative methods or actions, reviewers should conduct multiple analyses, presenting all options, and discussing the implications of the different analytical approaches. We believe it is vital to tackle
Dulin, S.K.; Kiselev, I.A.
This paper covers the problem of storing and retrieving information from big data bases, where the information does not have an exact structure and different object have very thin (or weak) relations each with other. It is one of the biggest problems in decision-support systems, especially in those environments, where the information is complicated and very changeable. One of the way to solve this problem could be the building a semiotic model of the environment according to our goals. One of the important parts of systems based on semiotic modelling is the active knowledge base supplied with the special concordance mechanism of structural consistency. This paper deals with an active knowledge base condition considered by means of connections structure analysis of knowledge base components. Thereby the dominant attribute of any component is supposed to be the connections structure of knowledge base component (object). A set of objects with connections that have a binary existence estimate is examined. Consonant, dissonant and assonant sets are distinguished, depending on the satisfiability of the consonance criterion. An algorithm is proposed and realised for reducing assonant and dissonant sets to a consonance state with minimum expenditures in the sense of the general number variable estimates of the connections. This way of decision has been applied to arrays of variable information stored on CD-ROM disks
McCaul, Courtney; Boone, Kyle B; Ermshar, Annette; Cottingham, Maria; Victor, Tara L; Ziegler, Elizabeth; Zeller, Michelle A; Wright, Matthew
To cross-validate the Dot Counting Test in a large neuropsychological sample. Dot Counting Test scores were compared in credible (n = 142) and non-credible (n = 335) neuropsychology referrals. Non-credible patients scored significantly higher than credible patients on all Dot Counting Test scores. While the original E-score cut-off of ≥17 achieved excellent specificity (96.5%), it was associated with mediocre sensitivity (52.8%). However, the cut-off could be substantially lowered to ≥13.80, while still maintaining adequate specificity (≥90%), and raising sensitivity to 70.0%. Examination of non-credible subgroups revealed that Dot Counting Test sensitivity in feigned mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) was 55.8%, whereas sensitivity was 90.6% in patients with non-credible cognitive dysfunction in the context of claimed psychosis, and 81.0% in patients with non-credible cognitive performance in depression or severe TBI. Thus, the Dot Counting Test may have a particular role in detection of non-credible cognitive symptoms in claimed psychiatric disorders. Alternative to use of the E-score, failure on ≥1 cut-offs applied to individual Dot Counting Test scores (≥6.0″ for mean grouped dot counting time, ≥10.0″ for mean ungrouped dot counting time, and ≥4 errors), occurred in 11.3% of the credible sample, while nearly two-thirds (63.6%) of the non-credible sample failed one of more of these cut-offs. An E-score cut-off of 13.80, or failure on ≥1 individual score cut-offs, resulted in few false positive identifications in credible patients, and achieved high sensitivity (64.0-70.0%), and therefore appear appropriate for use in identifying neurocognitive performance invalidity.
Electric utilities and the US nuclear industry are criticized for giving a public relations response to safety concerns following the accident at Three Mile Island and for passing the cost of the response on to utility customers. The large amounts of money budgeted by Babcock and Wilcox, Bechtel Power Corporation, the Atomic Industrial Forum, Electric Power Research Institute, Nuclear Energy Women, and others to minimize the incident and counter anti-nuclear arguments with media events are seen here by Feeney as evidence that the utilities and nuclear industry are afraid of political consequences as their technical credibility vanishes
Canada's Atomic Energy Control Board, considered the oldest independent nuclear regulatory body in the world, has made significant progress toward openness and visibility through public information policy initiatives and communications activities, particularly in the last five years. A number of public information projects are described, and successes as well as disappointments are outlined. The importance in terms of enhanced credibility and public confidence in the regulatory agency is stressed. In looking toward the future, the linking of communications to the operational functions and activities of the regulator is presented as a key requirement. (author)
Although it is inevitable to recover credibility of utilities, there are no clear ways to realize a final target yet. Credibility issue is a very difficult especially in Japan, where the word of 'Anshin' has special importance in the mind of people. In this paper, the word of 'Anshin' in Japan was discussed in order to find out differences in other countries by comparison of culture and customs, especially ways to prepare food, i.e. agriculture and hunting and gathering and so on. The meanings of 'Anshin' were decomposed into several elements, and each element was discussed and clarified. Human factor is important in both operation of plants and risk communication. The philosophy and attitude of COE of utilities are those of very important factors to regain credibility. The utilities' responsibilities are important, but not enough by themselves. In order to assure transparency of information used in risk communication, improvement of people's scientific literacy and their attitude to elect their representatives are absolutely necessary. Especially, risk information related to Level 3 RPA to be opened to public have to be fully transparent. Risk is one of most difficult concept for Japanese people to handle. The reoperation issue of nuclear power plants will involve several difficulties, but challenges to overcome this issue will be a good chance to change a way of decision making in Japan. (author)
Full Text Available The development of the web, in the last 20 years, has opened new areas of analysis and new phenomena sociologically relevant for social research. However, the research work in digital space presents a series of ethical and deontological problems. In this context the members of the Association of Internet Researchers (AOIR have composed and edited a document with a series of ethical guidelines for social research. The work of the AOIR group not include Italian researchers; for this reason, the aim of this paper is propose a commented translation of the contents of Ethical decision-making and Internet research for make the ethical factor one of the main tools for computational sociology.
Vaughan, Hague; Whitelaw, Graham; Craig, Brian; Stewart, Craig
The paper describes the Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network's (EMAN) operational and program response to certain challenges of environmental monitoring in Canada, in particular, efforts to improve the ability of the network to deliver relevant information to decision makers. In addition to its familiar roles, environmental monitoring should deliver feedback to society on environmental changes associated with development patterns, trends, processes and interventions. In order for such feedback to be effective, it must be relevant, timely, useful and accessible: all characteristics that are defined by the user, not the provider. Demand driven environmental monitoring is explored through EMAN's experiences with Canada's Biosphere Reserves, the NatureWatch Program and the Canadian Community Monitoring Network.
McConnachie, Matthew M; Romero, Claudia; Ferraro, Paul J; van Wilgen, Brian W
The fundamental challenge of evaluating the impact of conservation interventions is that researchers must estimate the difference between the outcome after an intervention occurred and what the outcome would have been without it (counterfactual). Because the counterfactual is unobservable, researchers must make an untestable assumption that some units (e.g., organisms or sites) that were not exposed to the intervention can be used as a surrogate for the counterfactual (control). The conventional approach is to make a point estimate (i.e., single number along with a confidence interval) of impact, using, for example, regression. Point estimates provide powerful conclusions, but in nonexperimental contexts they depend on strong assumptions about the counterfactual that often lack transparency and credibility. An alternative approach, called partial identification (PI), is to first estimate what the counterfactual bounds would be if the weakest possible assumptions were made. Then, one narrows the bounds by using stronger but credible assumptions based on an understanding of why units were selected for the intervention and how they might respond to it. We applied this approach and compared it with conventional approaches by estimating the impact of a conservation program that removed invasive trees in part of the Cape Floristic Region. Even when we used our largest PI impact estimate, the program's control costs were 1.4 times higher than previously estimated. PI holds promise for applications in conservation science because it encourages researchers to better understand and account for treatment selection biases; can offer insights into the plausibility of conventional point-estimate approaches; could reduce the problem of advocacy in science; might be easier for stakeholders to agree on a bounded estimate than a point estimate where impacts are contentious; and requires only basic arithmetic skills. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.
Zhi, Qiang; Su, Jun; Ru, Peng; Anadon, Laura Diaz
Since 1978, when China launched its “opening up” reform, a range of large-scale national science and technology programs have been implemented to spur economic development. Energy has received significant attention and has become a growing priority in the past years. In this paper we have analyzed the goals, management, and impact over time of China's three largest national programs: Gong Guan, 863, and 973 Programs. Using quantitative metrics to describe the input and output, by conducting semi-structured interviews with officials, scientists, and other decision makers, and by reviewing available documents as well as a case study on the coal sector we examined the changes in the decision making process, particularly in regard to the role of scientists. We found that the changes in strategic priorities set by China's high level political leaders were implemented and then transformed into outputs by using scientists as inputs or policy tools. The decreased role of scientists has been driven by two forces: (1) periodic changes in national strategy emphasizing technology commercialization; and (2) changes in the management structure involving low tolerance of risk. We suggest four ways that the government's efforts to turn China into an innovation oriented country. - Highlights: • New data was provided for the energy sector of China's three largest RD and D programs. • Transitions of goals, priorities, management, and impact over time of the programs were reviewed. • We found the role of scientists has been reduced in the decision making process. • Two forces are identified as the shaping factors
Cronmiller, Joshua G; Noble, Bram F
Cumulative effects (CE) monitoring is foundational to emerging regional and watershed CE management frameworks, yet monitoring is often poorly integrated with CE management and decision-making processes. The challenges are largely institutional and organizational, more so than scientific or technical. Calls for improved integration of monitoring with CE management and decision making are not new, but there has been limited research on how best to integrate environmental monitoring programs to ensure credible CE science and to deliver results that respond to the more immediate questions and needs of regulatory decision makers. This paper examines options for the integration of environmental monitoring with CE frameworks. Based on semistructured interviews with practitioners, regulators, and other experts in the Lower Athabasca, Alberta, Canada, 3 approaches to monitoring system design are presented. First, a distributed monitoring system, reflecting the current approach in the Lower Athabasca, where monitoring is delegated to different external programs and organizations; second, a 1-window system in which monitoring is undertaken by a single, in-house agency for the purpose of informing management and regulatory decision making; third, an independent system driven primarily by CE science and understanding causal relationships, with knowledge adopted for decision support where relevant to specific management questions. The strengths and limitations of each approach are presented. A hybrid approach may be optimal-an independent, nongovernment, 1-window model for CE science, monitoring, and information delivery-capitalizing on the strengths of distributed, 1-window, and independent monitoring systems while mitigating their weaknesses. If governments are committed to solving CE problems, they must invest in the long-term science needed to do so; at the same time, if science-based monitoring programs are to be sustainable over the long term, they must be responsive to
Rider, William J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Witkowski, Walter R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mousseau, Vincent Andrew [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
The importance of credible, trustworthy numerical simulations is obvious especially when using the results for making high-consequence decisions. Determining the credibility of such numerical predictions is much more difficult and requires a systematic approach to assessing predictive capability, associated uncertainties and overall confidence in the computational simulation process for the intended use of the model. This process begins with an evaluation of the computational modeling of the identified, important physics of the simulation for its intended use. This is commonly done through a Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRT). Then an assessment of the evidence basis supporting the ability to computationally simulate these physics can be performed using various frameworks such as the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM). There were several critical activities that follow in the areas of code and solution verification, validation and uncertainty quantification, which will be described in detail in the following sections. Here, we introduce the subject matter for general applications but specifics are given for the failure prediction project. In addition, the first task that must be completed in the verification & validation procedure is to perform a credibility assessment to fully understand the requirements and limitations of the current computational simulation capability for the specific application intended use. The PIRT and PCMM are tools used at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to provide a consistent manner to perform such an assessment. Ideally, all stakeholders should be represented and contribute to perform an accurate credibility assessment. PIRTs and PCMMs are both described in brief detail below and the resulting assessments for an example project are given.
Full Text Available Email spam consumes a lot of network resources and threatens many systems because of its unwanted or malicious content. Most existing spam filters only target complete-spam but ignore semispam. This paper proposes a novel and comprehensive CPSFS scheme: Credible Personalized Spam Filtering Scheme, which classifies spam into two categories: complete-spam and semispam, and targets filtering both kinds of spam. Complete-spam is always spam for all users; semispam is an email identified as spam by some users and as regular email by other users. Most existing spam filters target complete-spam but ignore semispam. In CPSFS, Bayesian filtering is deployed at email servers to identify complete-spam, while semispam is identified at client side by crowdsourcing. An email user client can distinguish junk from legitimate emails according to spam reports from credible contacts with the similar interests. Social trust and interest similarity between users and their contacts are calculated so that spam reports are more accurately targeted to similar users. The experimental results show that the proposed CPSFS can improve the accuracy rate of distinguishing spam from legitimate emails compared with that of Bayesian filter alone.
Gray, G.M.; Baskin, S.I.; Charnley, G.; Cohen, J.T.; Gold, L.S.; Kerkvliet, N.I.; Koenig, H.M.; Lewis, S.C.; McClain, R.M.; Rhomberg, L.R.; Snyder, J.W.; Weekley, L.B.
The science of toxicology plays an important role in identifying safe conditions of use or exposure for many different kinds of environmental agents. The use of toxicologic information in risk assessment requires careful analysis, evaluation of data, and scientific judgment. These Annapolis Accords are intended to guide appropriate use in risk assessment of the scientific information from toxicology. We believe that application of these principles will improve the scientific credibility of risk assessment and the quality of decisions aimed at reducing and eliminating risks to human health and the environment.
Ali Reza Salar
Full Text Available The nursing occupation is considered among those sciences which have had and will also have numerous ethical and exemplary aspects. The results of the studies performed regarding ethics indicate the weak nature of the nurses’ ethical decision making. Therefore, it was felt that there is a need to perform a study aiming at the ethical sensitivity level in decision making of the nurses working in training hospitals belonging to Zahedan medical sciences universities. The current study is a descriptive-analytical research performed on 140 nurses who were selected based on a randomized clustering method. To collect the information there was made use of a questionnaire comprising of two parts, the first part of which is related to the demographic characteristics and the second part pertains to a standard questionnaire of nurses’ ethical sensitivity in decision making. Finally after the questionnaires were collected they were analyzed by the use of SPSS 19 and descriptive statistics, Pierson correlation test, variance analysis and independent t-test. Nurses’ average age was 28.56 ± 6.48 and of the total population 123 individuals were women of whom 68 people had participated in ethics seminars and 53 of them were single. The overall ethical sensitivity mean among the nurses was 59.82 ± 17.50 which was ranked as intermediate according to the classification of the questionnaire, and in each of the dimensions of the ethical sensitivity the following scores were obtained respectively, in respect for the help-seeker independence the score was 10.71 ± 4.00, in the dimension if ethical problems and challenges the score obtained was 11.35 ± 4.21, in the dimension of application of the ethical concepts in decision making the score was 12.49 ± 3.82 and in the dimension of honesty and benevolence the obtained score was 4.73 ± 1.70, the professional knowledge dimension scored 13.49 ± 4.50 and the dimension of awareness of the nurses’ treating style
Larsson, C. M.
With Publication 91 on the impact of ionizing radiation on non-human species, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has taken a major step towards the integration of environmental issues into radiological protection. The conceptual framework has developed in response to public demand and concern for environmental issues, and is underpinned by technical development undertaken by several organisations at both national and international levels. The EC-funded FASSET project (Framework for Assessment of Environmental Impact), completed in 2004, has developed an assessment framework that includes: source characterisation and initial hazard analysis; ecosystem description and selection of reference organisms; exposure analysis including conversion to dose rates; effects analysis; and, guidance for interpretation. On the basis of experience from FASSET and other recent developments, it can be concluded that (i) there is substantial agreement in terms of conceptual approaches between different frameworks currently in use being or proposed, and that (ii) differences in technical approaches can be largely attributed to differences in ecosystems of concern or in national regulatory requirements. A major future challenge is the development of an integrated approach where decision-making can be guided by sound scientific judgements. This requires, inter alia: filling gaps in basic knowledge of relevance to assessment and protection, through targeted experimental, theoretical (including expert judgements) and real case studies; development of risk characterisation methodologies; development of screening standards, where appropriate; development of user-friendly assessment tools; and, stakeholder involvement, including the development of supporting communication strategies. These issues will be addressed in the ERICA project (Environmental Risks from Ionizing Contaminants Assessment and Management) launched under the EC 6th Framework Programme during the
Luisetti, T; Turner, R K; Jickells, T; Andrews, J; Elliott, M; Schaafsma, M; Beaumont, N; Malcolm, S; Burdon, D; Adams, C; Watts, W
This research is concerned with the following environmental research questions: socio-ecological system complexity, especially when valuing ecosystem services; ecosystems stock and services flow sustainability and valuation; the incorporation of scale issues when valuing ecosystem services; and the integration of knowledge from diverse disciplines for governance and decision making. In this case study, we focused on ecosystem services that can be jointly supplied but independently valued in economic terms: healthy climate (via carbon sequestration and storage), food (via fisheries production in nursery grounds), and nature recreation (nature watching and enjoyment). We also explored the issue of ecosystem stock and services flow, and we provide recommendations on how to value stock and flows of ecosystem services via accounting and economic values respectively. We considered broadly comparable estuarine systems located on the English North Sea coast: the Blackwater estuary and the Humber estuary. In the past, these two estuaries have undergone major land-claim. Managed realignment is a policy through which previously claimed intertidal habitats are recreated allowing the enhancement of the ecosystem services provided by saltmarshes. In this context, we investigated ecosystem service values, through biophysical estimates and welfare value estimates. Using an optimistic (extended conservation of coastal ecosystems) and a pessimistic (loss of coastal ecosystems because of, for example, European policy reversal) scenario, we find that context dependency, and hence value transfer possibilities, vary among ecosystem services and benefits. As a result, careful consideration in the use and application of value transfer, both in biophysical estimates and welfare value estimates, is advocated to supply reliable information for policy making. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Roberto Flores de Apodaca
Full Text Available Forensic psychological examiners are often confronted with assessments in the guilt phase of criminal cases in which a Defendant denies his/her charged conduct, but the existing evidence clearly contradicts their account. This happens often in cases involving charges of violence, sex offending and or substance abuse (Langton, Barbaree, Harkins, Arenovich, McNamee & Peacock, 2008. What is the proper role of the examiner in such instances?; granting the benefit of the doubt and accepting the Defendant’s account, using the one contained in the differing evidence, or making an independent judgment about which is more likely to be true? Does accepting any version mean the expert is offering an opinion on the Ultimate Issue in the case, and encroaching on the role of the Trier of Fact? The Federal Rules of Evidence (FREE dictate that judgments about Ultimate Issues belong solely to the Trier of Fact, yet the DSM-5 Manual (APA, 2013 instructs us to consider Malingering in every forensic situation; i.e. is the Defendant being honest about his mental state, and by implication, his/her credibility? Our recommendation is that examiners offer no opinions about which conflicting version in a criminal case is the more credible during the guilt phase, and instead, offer “if, then” assessments about a Defendant’s propensity for violence or sexual offending; i.e. if the charges are true, then s/he poses certain levels of risk going forward, for reasons detailed in the report. Such a stance avoids experts “taking sides” during the guilt phase of a case and allows them to fully inform the adversarial, legal process as it deliberates on possible Plea Bargains or Sentencing decisions. We argue that this impartial approach serves a useful function in legal proceedings while adhering to our Ethical Guidelines (APA, 2010.
Horton, Radley; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William; Bader, Daniel; Sohl, Linda
New York City is one of the world's most vulnerable cities to coastal flooding, due to a high concentration of population and assets near a coastline exposed to warm-season tropical storms and cold -season Nor'easter storms. Among U.S. cities, New York City is second only to New Orleans in population living less than 4 ft above the local high tide. By the 2050s, average annual losses due to coastal flooding alone could exceed $2 billion for the combined New York City-Newark region. Perhaps the most iconic example of a vulnerable New York City asset is the financial district located at the southern tip of Manhattan, however low-lying coastal assets include the full complement of major highways, subways and tunnels, hospitals, schools, wastewater treatment plants, food distribution centers, and people's homes. Given the magnitude of the assets at risk, a compelling case can be made that long-term adaptation makes economic sense for New York City. Given New York's access to economic, human, and technological resources for resilience measures, the City may be able to achieve this resilience. The city's political environment-New York City is a place where climate science is generally not a partisan issue-and the city's experience with uncertainty and overall risk framing (e.g., financing of bond issues for multi-billion dollar infrastructure with multidecade expected lifetimes), encourage climate risk framing.
Jho, Hunkoog; Yoon, Hye-Gyoung; Kim, Mijung
The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship of students' understanding of science knowledge, attitude and decision making on socio-scientific issues (SSI), especially on the issues of nuclear energy in Korea. SSI-focused instructions were developed to encourage students to understand and reflect on knowledge, attitude and…
Full Text Available Of the numerous proposals to improve the accuracy of naive Bayes (NB by weakening the conditional independence assumption, averaged one-dependence estimator (AODE demonstrates remarkable zero-one loss performance. However, indiscriminate superparent attributes will bring both considerable computational cost and negative effect on classification accuracy. In this paper, to extract the most credible dependencies we present a new type of seminaive Bayesian operation, which selects superparent attributes by building maximum weighted spanning tree and removes highly correlated children attributes by functional dependency and canonical cover analysis. Our extensive experimental comparison on UCI data sets shows that this operation efficiently identifies possible superparent attributes at training time and eliminates redundant children attributes at classification time.
Shaikh, Ulfat; Scott, Barbara J
Our objective was to test and describe a model for evaluating Websites related to breastfeeding. Forty Websites most likely to be accessed by the public were evaluated for extent, accuracy, credibility, presentation, ease of use, and adherence to ethical and medical Internet publishing standards. Extent and accuracy of Website content were determined by a checklist of critical information. The majority of Websites reviewed provided accurate information and complied with the International Code of Marketing of Breast-milk Substitutes. Approximately half the Websites complied with standards of medical Internet publishing. While much information on breastfeeding on the Internet is accurate, there is wide variability in the extent of information, usability of Websites, and compliance with standards of medical Internet publishing. Results of this study may be helpful to health care professionals as a model for evaluating breastfeeding-related Websites and to highlight considerations when recommending or designing Websites.
Salomaa, Sisko; Pinak, Miroslav
Full text: This work summarises the main ideas and achievements of the Science and Values in Radiological Protection Workshop that was held on 15-17 January 2008 in Helsinki, Finland. In the view of developing of new radiological applications and emerging scientific phenomena it has been recognized a need to develop a shared understanding of emerging challenges for radiological protection among scientific and regulatory communities, public and other concerned stake holders. In response to this the Committee of Radiation Protection and Public Health of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority of Finland tried to initiate a process of longer-term reflection on scientific and societal issues that might challenge radiological protection in the coming years. Among general issues like radiological policy issues, improvement of understanding between research and policy communities, sharing views on emerging scientific issues, there were addressed several scientific issues, like non-targeted effects, individual sensitivity; and circulatory diseases. The main focus of these discussions was to elaborate potential 'what if' scenarios and propose feasible solutions at various levels. These discussions addressed effects that are not direct and evident consequence of the initial lesions produced at the cellular and DNA level like bystander responses, genomic instability, gene induction, adaptive responses and low dose. Particular interest was paid to an extrapolation of risk estimates to low doses and role of Linear Non-Threshold theory in setting regulatory principles. Individual radio-sensitivity and identification of genes that are suspected of having an influence on it were also discussed in one of the Breakout Sessions. Another Breakout Session addressed circulatory diseases. There is emerging evidence in the A-bomb survivors and in other exposed groups that ionising radiation also causes other diseases than cancer, such as circulatory
Granger, S. L.; Andreadis, K.; Das, N.; Farr, T. G.; Ines, A. V. M.; Jayasinghe, S.; Jones, C. E.; Melton, F. S.; Ndungu, L. W.; Lai-Norling, J.; Painter, T. H.
Across the globe, planners and decision makers are often hampered by organizational and data silos and/or a lack of historic data or scant in situ observations on which to base policy and action plans. The end result is a complex interaction of responsibilities, legal frameworks, and stakeholder needs guided by uncertain information that is essentially bounded by how climate extremes are defined and characterized. Because of the importance of water, considerable resources in the developing and developed world are invested in data and tools for managing water. However, the existing paradigm of water management around the world faces significant challenges including inadequate funding to install, maintain or upgrade monitoring networks, lack of resources to integrate new science and data sources into existing tools, and demands for improved spatial coverage of observations. Add to this, a changing hydrology that is so complex it requires measurements and analyses that have never been done before. Interest in applying remote sensing science and observations into the decision making process is growing the world over, but in order to succeed, it is essential to form partnerships with stakeholder organizations and decision makers at the outset. In this talk, we describe examples of succesful decision-maker and science partnering based on projects that apply remote sensing science and observations in East Africa and the Lower Mekong Basin supported by the SERVIR Initiative, a joint United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) program, and projects in the western United States supported by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Western Water Applications Office (WWAO). All of these examples have benefitted from strong, committed partnerships with end user agencies. Best practices and lessons learned in connecting science to decision making amongst these examples are explored.
Poppe, Michaela; Böck, Kerstin; Loach, Andreas; Scheikl, Sigrid; Zitek, Andreas; Heidenreich, Andrea; Kurz-Aigner, Roman; Schrittwieser, Martin; Muhar, Susanne
Equipping young people with the skills to participate successfully in increasingly complex environments and societies is a central issue of policy makers around the world. Only the understanding of complex socio-environmental systems establishes a basis for making decisions leading to sustainable development. However, OECD Pisa studies indicated, that only a low percentage of 15-year-old students was able to solve straightforward problems. Additionally, students get less interested in natural science education. In Austria "Sparkling Science" projects funded by the Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy in Austria target at integrating science with school learning by involving young people into scientific research for the purpose of developing new and engaging forms of interactive, meaningful learning. Within the Sparkling Science Project "Traisen.w3" scientists work together with 15 to 18-year-old students of an Austrian Secondary School over two years to identify and evaluate ecosystem services within the catchment of the river Traisen. One of the aims of the project is to foster system understanding of the youths by multi-modal school activities. To support the development of causal systems thinking, students developed qualitative causal models on processes in the catchment of the river Traisen with an interactive, hierarchically structured learning environment that was developed within the EU-FP7 project "DynaLearn" (http://www.dynalearn.eu) based on qualitative reasoning. Students worked in small groups and were encouraged to interlink entities, processes and simulate the results of the proposed interactions of hydrological, biological, ecological, spatial and societal elements. Within this setting collaborative problem solving competency through sharing knowledge, understanding and different perspectives was developed. Additionally, in several school workshops the ecosystem services concept was used as communication tool to show the
Wang, Zuoming; Loh, Tracy
Background Concerns over health information on the Internet have generated efforts to enhance credibility markers; yet how users actually assess the credibility of online health information is largely unknown. Objective This study set out to (1) establish a parsimonious and valid questionnaire instrument to measure credibility of Internet health information by drawing on various previous measures of source, news, and other credibility scales; and (2) to identify the effects of Web-site domains and advertising on credibility perceptions. Methods Respondents (N = 156) examined one of 12 Web-site mock-ups and completed credibility scales in a 3 x 2 x 2 between-subjects experimental design. Factor analysis and validity checks were used for item reduction, and analysis of variance was employed for hypothesis testing of Web-site features' effects. Results In an attempt to construct a credibility instrument, three dimensions of credibility (safety, trustworthiness, and dynamism) were retained, reflecting traditional credibility sub-themes, but composed of items from disparate sources. When testing the effect of the presence or absence of advertising on a Web site on credibility, we found that this depends on the site's domain, with a trend for advertisements having deleterious effects on the credibility of sites with .org domain, but positive effects on sites with .com or .edu domains. Conclusions Health-information Web-site providers should select domains purposefully when they can, especially if they must accept on-site advertising. Credibility perceptions may not be invariant or stable, but rather are sensitive to topic and context. Future research may employ these findings in order to compare other forms of health-information delivery to optimal Web-site features. PMID:15471750
Jamal Jamilah; Abu Bakar Hassan
Organizational credibility, the extent of which an organization as the source of messages is perceived as trustworthy and reliable, is one important aspect to determine organization’s survival. The perceived credibility of the messages will either strengthen or worsen an organization reputation. The primary objective of this paper is to revisit the concept of organizational credibility and its interaction with organizational outcomes such as organizational reputation. Based on the situational...
Full Text Available The concept “credibility” has become significant attention from academics and practitioners because it played an important role in creating and maintaining consumer behavior. This study uses twenty- seven references relates to credibility, customer value, satisfaction, and loyalty. Several studies have discussed the relationship between credibility and consumer behavior and also elaborated dimensions of credibility. It also presented the shortcomings of current research and the trends for future study in Islamic banking.
Confidence issues create potential risks for the public in any emergency situation. They do so because credibility and associated perceptions of legitimacy and competency of organizations are determinants of human behavior in disasters. Credibility, however, is only one of numerous factors that shape response of people or organizations to a threatening event. The purposes of this paper are to review what is known about the way in which credibility and related constructs influence emergency response, discuss how this knowledge applies to radiological emergency planning, and suggest how credibility-induced risk can be minimized in emergency planning and response.
Confidence issues create potential risks for the public in any emergency situation. They do so because credibility and associated perceptions of legitimacy and competency of organizations are determinants of human behavior in disasters. Credibility, however, is only one of numerous factors that shape response of people or organizations to a threatening event. The purposes of this paper are to review what is known about the way in which credibility and related constructs influence emergency response, discuss how this knowledge applies to radiological emergency planning, and suggest how credibility-induced risk can be minimized in emergency planning and response
Full Text Available The stature of the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA has been subverted through highly publicised political interference by the executive. Beginning with the marathon legal entanglements of the current South African president the decisions of sitting National Directors of Public Prosecutions (NDPP on high-profile criminal matters, particularly those involving prominent members of the political leadership, have been marred with controversy. Undoubtedly unwarranted intrusion into the prosecutorial domain, at the behest of key political protagonists, has blighted the repute of the NPA. The judiciary too has played a pivotal, if lesser role, in eroding the sagging reputation of the NPA. This article charts the narrative of judicial influence on the diminishing credibility of the NPA, using selected cases from the recent past. It shows that key political events such as the Zuma corruption saga have placed the judiciary together with political forces at centre stage where the focus is their culpability for exceeding their lawful mandate. Finding itself vulnerable as a result of its being the target of rhetoric casting doubt on its integrity and threatening its independence, the judiciary (through a crucial judgment entered the political fray and positioned itself behind what it judged to be the pervasive political sentiment of the day. The article examines whether, subsequently, in an effort to curb undue political influence of the executive on the NPA, the Constitutional Court in Democratic Alliance v President of South Africa interpreted and extended judicial authority in a manner that violated the doctrine of separation of powers. Furthermore, the article argues that in Freedom Under Law v National Director of Public Prosecutions the court again misconstrued its powers by unduly interfering with the discretionary decision-making powers of the NDPP. These cases illustrate that, once they have been issued, the far reaching consequences of judicial
Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision-making in child and youth mental health (CYMH care requires recommendations that are developed through an efficient and effective method and are based on credible knowledge. Credible knowledge is informed by two sources: scientific evidence, and practice-based evidence, that reflects the "real world" experience of service providers. Current approaches to developing these recommendations in relation to CYMH will typically include evidence from one source or the other but do not have an objective method to combine the two. To this end, a modified version of the Grading Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE approach was pilot-tested, a novel method for the CYMH field. Methods GRADE has an explicit methodology that relies on input from scientific evidence as well as a panel of experts. The panel established the quality of evidence and derived detailed recommendations regarding the organization and delivery of mental health care for children and youth or their caregivers. In this study a modified GRADE method was used to provide precise recommendations based on a specific CYMH question (i.e. What is the current credible knowledge concerning the effects of parent-implemented, early intervention with their autistic children?. Results Overall, it appeared that early, parent-implemented interventions for autism result in positive effects that outweigh any undesirable effects. However, as opposed to overall recommendations, the heterogeneity of the evidence required that recommendations be specific to particular interventions, based on the questions of whether the benefits of a particular intervention outweighs its harms. Conclusions This pilot project provided evidence that a modified GRADE method may be an effective and practical approach to making recommendations in CYMH, based on credible knowledge. Key strengths of the process included separating the assessments of the quality of the evidence and
Hamilton, Frances A.
Students enter kindergarten as natural-born scientists, curious about the world around them. They enter middle school disliking science. Although implementing science in kindergarten has the potential to improve learning in other subjects in addition to science, it is not taught much in kindergarten. There are many reasons for this according to the literature. The purpose of the study is to gain insight into teachers' thinking as they decide when and how to engage their students in science, to better understand why student enjoyment of science fades in early grades; to contribute teachers' voices to the existing literature on teaching science in the early grades; and to investigate how teachers' science teaching methods align with current research regarding how students learn best. The key research question is "What are the factors that impact teachers' decisions about when to engage the natural curiosities of their students?" Broken down, the supporting research questions include: 1. What factors impact teacher decisions about when to teach science? 2. Under what conditions do teachers engage students' natural curiosities in science? 3. How do teachers describe engagement in their classrooms? This was a participatory action research study that used autoethnography, case studies, and grounded theory methods. Five co-researchers took part in the process. Purposeful sampling was used to select a range of kindergarten teachers in Tennessee and Alabama with different perspectives on teaching science--some from county systems and some from city systems; some using Alabama Math, Science, and Technology Initiative (AMSTI) kits and some not using kits. Co-researchers were selected during initial meetings, interviewed, collected journal entry data, and interviewed again at the culmination of the study. Interviews were transcribed and coded. Analysis included individual cases, each co-researcher, as well as across-case analysis. Results indicated that co-researchers did not
Loewenstein, W B; Divakaruni, S M
EPRI has been conducting nuclear safety research for a number of years with the primary goal of assuring the safety and reliability of the nuclear plants. The visibility is emphasized by sponsoring or participating in large scale test demonstrations to credibly support the complex computations that are the basis for quantification of safety margins. Recognizing the success of the airline industry in receiving favorable public perception, the authors compare the design and operation practices of the airline industry with those of the nuclear industry practices to identify the elements contributing to public concerns and unfavorable perceptions. In this paper, authors emphasize the importance of proper communications of research results to the public in a manner that non-specialists understand. Further, EPRI supported research and results in the areas of source term, seismic and structural engineering research, analysis using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), quantification of safety margins, digital technology development and implementation, and plant transient and performance evaluations are discussed in the paper. (orig./HP).
Full Text Available Scientific misconduct appears to be on the rise. However, an accused researcher may later be exonerated. The present research examines to what extent participants adhere to their attitude toward a researcher who allegedly committed academic misconduct after learning that the researcher is innocent. In two studies, participants in an exoneration and an uncorrected accusation condition learned that the ethics committee of a researcher's university demanded the retraction of one of the researcher's articles, whereas participants in a control condition did not receive this information. As intended, this manipulation led to a more favorable attitude toward the researcher in the control compared to the exoneration and the uncorrected accusation conditions (pre-exoneration attitude. Then, participants in the exoneration condition learned that the researcher was exonerated and that the article was not retracted. Participants in the uncorrected accusation and the control condition were not informed about the exoneration. Results revealed that the exoneration effectively worked, in that participants in the exoneration condition had a more favorable attitude (post-exoneration attitude toward the researcher than did participants in the uncorrected accusation condition. Moreover, the post-exoneration attitude toward the researcher was similar in the exoneration and the control conditions. Finally, in the exoneration condition only, participants' post-exoneration attitude was more favorable than their pre-exoneration attitude. These findings suggest that an exoneration of an accused researcher restores the researcher's credibility.
Greitemeyer, Tobias; Sagioglou, Christina
Scientific misconduct appears to be on the rise. However, an accused researcher may later be exonerated. The present research examines to what extent participants adhere to their attitude toward a researcher who allegedly committed academic misconduct after learning that the researcher is innocent. In two studies, participants in an exoneration and an uncorrected accusation condition learned that the ethics committee of a researcher's university demanded the retraction of one of the researcher's articles, whereas participants in a control condition did not receive this information. As intended, this manipulation led to a more favorable attitude toward the researcher in the control compared to the exoneration and the uncorrected accusation conditions (pre-exoneration attitude). Then, participants in the exoneration condition learned that the researcher was exonerated and that the article was not retracted. Participants in the uncorrected accusation and the control condition were not informed about the exoneration. Results revealed that the exoneration effectively worked, in that participants in the exoneration condition had a more favorable attitude (post-exoneration attitude) toward the researcher than did participants in the uncorrected accusation condition. Moreover, the post-exoneration attitude toward the researcher was similar in the exoneration and the control conditions. Finally, in the exoneration condition only, participants' post-exoneration attitude was more favorable than their pre-exoneration attitude. These findings suggest that an exoneration of an accused researcher restores the researcher's credibility.
Loewenstein, W.B.; Divakaruni, S.M.
EPRI has been conducting nuclear safety research for a number of years with the primary goal of assuring the safety and reliability of the nuclear plants. The visibility is emphasized by sponsoring or participating in large scale test demonstrations to credibly support the complex computations that are the basis for quantification of safety margins. Recognizing the success of the airline industry in receiving favorable public perception, the authors compare the design and operation practices of the airline industry with those of the nuclear industry practices to identify the elements contributing to public concerns and unfavorable perceptions. In this paper, authors emphasize the importance of proper communications of research results to the public in a manner that non-specialists understand. Further, EPRI supported research and results in the areas of source term, seismic and structural engineering research, analysis using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), quantification of safety margins, digital technology development and implementation, and plant transient and performance evaluations are discussed in the paper. (orig./HP)
This book deals principally with the role of the public utility in the business sector and specifically with its patterns of communications in this turbulent era of changing public opinion. Offering the premise that time has almost run out to achieve public understanding in today's mounting energy crisis, Frank C. Sullivan diagnoses the problems, examines available communication techniques, and offers a pragmatic approach to action which will stimulate and challenge neophyte and professional alike. The book touches on the history of public relations, discusses its functions and role in utility management, and provides practical suggestions and sound advice on corporate credibility and accounting. Following a ''Rationale for Action'' the book's twenty-two chapters are grouped in four major sections: Public Relations and the Utility; Planning for Rate Increases; The Utility and its Publics, and Private vs. Public Ownership. In his epilogue, ''The Dimensions of Disbelief,'' the author sets forth his candid and provocative thesis for action and change.
Full Text Available The paper presents the possibilities of insuring the credibilityand authenticity of the surveillance camera video by digitalsigning, using the public key infrastructure as part of interoperabletraffic and information system in the future intelligenttransport systems. The surveillance camera video is a sequenceof individual frames and a unique digital print, i. e. hash valueis calculated for each of these. By encryption of the hash valuesof the frames using private encryption key of the surveillancecentre, digital signatures are created and they are stored in thedatabase. The surveillance centre can issue a copy of the videoto all the interested subjects for scientific and research workand investigation. Regardless of the scope, each subsequentmanipulation of the video copy contents will certainly changethe hash value of all the frames. The procedure of determiningthe authenticity and credibility of videos is reduced to the comparisonof the hash values of the frames stored in the databaseof the surveillance centre with the values obtained from the interestedsubjects such as the traffic experts and investigators,surveillance-security services etc.
Kudzh, S.; Trofimov, S.
Modern socially economic situation in the country and in an education system is those, that traditional forms of getting education and training model cannot satisfy all needs for the educational services usually concentrated in the big cities, and so - the increased interest to new, progressive specialities has received the development in electronic - training systems. The attitude to education on the part of the states, the governments, societies has changed also. Education began to be considered as the major factor of economic growth and social development of the countries, the decision of some global problems connected to survival of mankind. In this connection, recently development and practical introduction of technologies of remote and open education are conducted in the different countries, the especial attention is given to the systems, capable to comprise, transfer and analyze huge streams of information. The experience which has been saved up by foreign colleagues, shows, that the sanction of this technological conflict lays, generally, in sphere of creation of a wide network of remote training, and, in narrow, both quality and quantity of a substantial part, also it is necessary not to forget about a choice of electronic-training systems with their reference to various areas. And an occurrence of the computer equipment in the user's end, development of existing ways and means of data transmission, functional expansion of already existing and creation of absolutely new hardware-software complexes, and many other things has begun occurrence of new scientific directions in such basic area of sciences as the Earth - science. (These are geoinformation systems, research of natural resources by space methods, organization and technology of data protection in geoinformation systems etc.) Clearly, that new specialities impose the certain conditions for preparation of experts, and, carrying out the analysis of already existing electronic training systems in the
Introduction: This study looked at the effect of community peripheral cues (specifically voting score and answerer's reputation) on the user's credibility rating of answers. Method: Students in technology and philosophy were asked to assess the credibility of answers to questions posted on a social question-answering platform. Through the use of a…
Gerhardt, Megan W.
Using the framework of generational identity, the current study explores how a range of characteristics impact Millennial perceptions of instructor credibility. Millennial Generation student ratings of the impact of competence, character, and sociability on instructor credibility were compared to faculty ratings of the same characteristics.…
Ernst, N.; Kühne, R.; Wirth, W.
Research on the truth effect has demonstrated that statements are rated as more credible when they are repeatedly presented. However, current research indicates that there are limits to the truth effect and that too many repetitions can decrease message credibility. This study investigates whether
Baranowski, Paweł; Gajewski, Paweł
Credible forward guidance should bring down the perceived impact of macroeconomic variables on the interest rate. Using a micro-level dataset we test the perception of monetary policy in Poland among professional forecasters and find evidence for forward guidance credibility.
Hutchens, Jason S.; Hayes, Timothy
Teachers sometimes do things that negatively impact their own credibility in classroom settings. One way instructors maintain credibility among students is by keeping a veil between their personal and professional personas. The advent of Facebook presents new challenges for instructors seeking to keep their personal lives private in order to…
Marshall, M; Roger, P
Effective control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD)--prevention, surveillance and response--requires integrated animal disease management as a cooperative effort between stakeholders, scientists and decision makers, at all levels: local, national, regional and international. This paper suggests a process and outlines specific critical issues that need to be addressed in order to best use the science and technology that is available now and to develop new technologies that will lead to significant improvements. The overall objective is not to allow the disease or the disease control measures to damage, violate or destroy public health, the environment, or the economy, or to allow politics to drive disease control policies at the expense of the ethical relationship between man and animals. Critical issues of prevention, surveillance and response policies are examined, and specific recommendations are made to reduce the risk or effect of natural and deliberate introductions. For prevention: a) rapid portable diagnostics and provision of vaccines to control and eradicate the reservoirs of disease. b) alerts, leading to increased controls at borders, animal movement restrictions and biosecurity on farms. For surveillance: a) reporting of unusual symptoms, rapid diagnostics and identification of patterns. b) enhanced role of geographic information systems (GIS) linked to an IT system. c) collection, storage and sharing of disease information. For response policies: a) the role and implementation of stamping out and of vaccination. b) simulation exercises with stakeholder participation. For all aspects of FMD control, consideration should be given to: a) the composition, responsibilities and role of the balanced, permanently operational Expert Group in EU member states as specified in the EU FMD Directive. b) establishment of a balanced, permanently operational European Expert Group. c) establishment of both a European and an International FMD Task Force. Stakeholders need
Robinson, D. A.; Doesken, N.
CoCoRaHS is an acronym for the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network. It is long-running, community-based network of volunteers working together to measure and map precipitation (rain, hail and snow). Precipitation is an ideal element for public engagement because it affects everyone, it is so variable in time and space and it impacts so many things. By using a standard precipitation gauge, stressing training and education, utilizing an interactive website, and having observations undergo quality assurance, the CoCoRaHS program provides high-quality data for natural resource, education and research applications. The program currently operates in all states, Canada and the Bahamas. It originated with the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University in 1998 due in part to the Fort Collins flood a year prior. Upwards of 12,000 observers submit observations each day. Observations meet federal guidelines and are archived at the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information. Because of excellent spatial coverage, data quality, practical relevance, and accessibility, CoCoRaHS observations are used by a wide variety of organizations and individuals. The U.S. National Weather Service, hydrologists, emergency managers, city utilities (water supply, storm water), insurance adjusters, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, engineers, mosquito control commissions, ranchers and farmers, outdoor and recreation interests, teachers and students are just some examples of those who use CoCoRaHS data in making well-informed, meaningful decisions. Some examples of community applications and the science utility of CoCoRaHS observations include storm warnings, water supply and demand forecasts, disaster declarations (drought, winter storm, etc.), drought and food production assessments, calibration/validation of remote sensing, infrastructure evaluation and potential redesign (ice and snow loading, bridge, storm and sewer design), recreation planning, and
Kaatz, L.; Yates, D.; Woodbury, M.
advances in procedures and technologies that may further close the gap between science and decision making.
Gustafsson, Mats G; Wallman, Mikael; Wickenberg Bolin, Ulrika; Göransson, Hanna; Fryknäs, M; Andersson, Claes R; Isaksson, Anders
Successful use of classifiers that learn to make decisions from a set of patient examples require robust methods for performance estimation. Recently many promising approaches for determination of an upper bound for the error rate of a single classifier have been reported but the Bayesian credibility interval (CI) obtained from a conventional holdout test still delivers one of the tightest bounds. The conventional Bayesian CI becomes unacceptably large in real world applications where the test set sizes are less than a few hundred. The source of this problem is that fact that the CI is determined exclusively by the result on the test examples. In other words, there is no information at all provided by the uniform prior density distribution employed which reflects complete lack of prior knowledge about the unknown error rate. Therefore, the aim of the study reported here was to study a maximum entropy (ME) based approach to improved prior knowledge and Bayesian CIs, demonstrating its relevance for biomedical research and clinical practice. It is demonstrated how a refined non-uniform prior density distribution can be obtained by means of the ME principle using empirical results from a few designs and tests using non-overlapping sets of examples. Experimental results show that ME based priors improve the CIs when employed to four quite different simulated and two real world data sets. An empirically derived ME prior seems promising for improving the Bayesian CI for the unknown error rate of a designed classifier. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Garfin, G. M.; Brugger, J.; Gordon, E. S.; Barsugli, J. J.; Rangwala, I.; Travis, W.
For more than a decade, stakeholder needs assessments and reports, including the recent National Climate Assessment, have pointed out the need for climate "science translators" or "science integrators" who can help bridge the gap between the cultures and contexts of researchers and decision-makers. Integration is important for exchanging and enhancing knowledge, building capacity to use climate information in decision making, and fostering more robust planning for decision-making in the context of climate change. This talk will report on the characteristics of successful climate science integrators, and a variety of models for training the upcoming generation of climate science integrators. Science integration characteristics identified by an experienced vanguard in the U.S. include maintaining credibility in both the scientific and stakeholder communities, a basic respect for stakeholders demonstrated through active listening, and a deep understanding of the decision-making context. Drawing upon the lessons of training programs for Cooperative Extension, public health professionals, and natural resource managers, we offer ideas about training next generation climate science integrators. Our model combines training and development of skills in interpersonal relations, communication of science, project implementation, education techniques and practices - integrated with a strong foundation in disciplinary knowledge.
The 2002 Templeton Prize has gone to the Rev. John C. Polkinghome, a British mathematical physicist and Anglican priest, and a key spokesperson for belief in God in an age of science, defending the ideal that faith is not against science but inconcert with it
Miller, T. N.; Brumbaugh, E. J.; Barker, M.; Ly, V.; Schick, R.; Rogers, L.
The NASA DEVELOP National Program conducts over eighty Earth science projects every year. Each project applies NASA Earth observations to impact decision-making related to a local or regional community concern. Small, interdisciplinary teams create a methodology to address the specific issue, and then pass on the results to partner organizations, as well as providing them with instruction to continue using remote sensing for future decisions. Many different methods are used by individual teams, and the program as a whole, to communicate results and research accomplishments to decision-makers, stakeholders, alumni, and the general public. These methods vary in scope from formal publications to more informal venues, such as social media. This presentation will highlight the communication techniques used by the DEVELOP program. Audiences, strategies, and outlets will be discussed, including a newsletter, microjournal, video contest, and several others.
Opening Pandora's Box: Texas Elementary Campus Administrators use of Educational Policy And Highly Qualified Classroom Teachers Professional Development through Data-informed Decisions for Science Education
Brown, Linda Lou
Federal educational policy, No Child Left Behind Act of 2001, focused attention on America's education with conspicuous results. One aspect, highly qualified classroom teacher and principal (HQ), was taxing since states established individual accountability structures. The HQ impact and use of data-informed decision-making (DIDM) for Texas elementary science education monitoring by campus administrators, Campus Instruction Leader (CILs), provides crucial relationships to 5th grade students' learning and achievement. Forty years research determined improved student results when sustained, supported, and focused professional development (PD) for teachers is available. Using mixed methods research, this study applied quantitative and qualitative analysis from two, electronic, on-line surveys: Texas Elementary, Intermediate or Middle School Teacher Survey(c) and the Texas Elementary Campus Administrator Survey(c) with results from 22.3% Texas school districts representing 487 elementary campuses surveyed. Participants selected in random, stratified sampling of 5th grade teachers who attended local Texas Regional Collaboratives science professional development (PD) programs between 2003-2008. Survey information compared statistically to campus-level average passing rate scores on the 5th grade science TAKS using Statistical Process Software (SPSS). Written comments from both surveys analyzed with Qualitative Survey Research (NVivo) software. Due to the level of uncertainty of variables within a large statewide study, Mauchly's Test of Sphericity statistical test used to validate repeated measures factor ANOVAs. Although few individual results were statistically significant, when jointly analyzed, striking constructs were revealed regarding the impact of HQ policy applications and elementary CILs use of data-informed decisions on improving 5th grade students' achievement and teachers' PD learning science content. Some constructs included the use of data
Stein, Rachel S.
Latino/as are an increasingly large subset of the United States population; however, they continue to be underrepresented in science careers. Because of this increase, research regarding Latino/as has improved, but there are still many gaps in regards to gender-specific predictors to pursue science careers. To address this lack of literature, the purpose of this study is to extend previous research and to develop a model of variables that significantly contribute to science career choice among Latino and Latina students when they graduate from high school. In particular the study addressed the following research questions: (1) What are the differences in science outcomes for Latino and Latina students? (2) What are the differences in factors involved in science outcomes for Latino and Latina students? (3) For Latino and Latina students what are the differences in the factors that predict students' choice to pursue a science degree and/or high scores on the Future Plans in Science Scale? (4) What are the differences in how Latino and Latina students experience science, which account for high achieving students to choose to pursue a science major? This study utilized an explanatory mixed-method approach to examine how cognitive, institutional, and motivational factors may be interrelated and play a role in Latino/as choice to pursue science. The first phase of the study incorporated the collection of survey and database information from 12th grade students at two Southern California high schools. The second phase of the study utilized follow-up focus group interviews to explore the specific differential experiences and views of Latino and Latina students. The results of the study demonstrated multiple significant predictors. Science self-concept and views towards science outside of school were the most significant predictors of students' choice to pursue science. Male students also had major predictors of Spanish proficiency, teacher encouragement, religious views
Favors, J.; Ruiz, M. L.; Rogers, L.; Ross, K. W.; Childs-Gleason, L. M.; Allsbrook, K. N.
Over a five-year period that spanned two administrations, NASA's DEVELOP National Program engaged in a partnership with the Government of the Commonwealth of Virginia to explore the use of Earth observations in state-level decision making. The partnership conducted multiple applied remote sensing projects with DEVELOP and utilized a shared-space approach, where the Virginia Governor's Office hosted NASA DEVELOP participants to mature the partnership and explore additional science opportunities in the Commonwealth. This presentation will provide an overview of various lessons learned from working in an administrative and policy environment, fostering the use of science in such an environment, and building substantive relationships with non-technical partners. An overview of the projects conducted in this partnership will provide an opportunity to explore specific best practices that enhanced the work and provide tips to enhance the potential for success for other science and technology organizations considering similar partnerships.
Full Text Available Teaching and learning research in higher education, often referred to as the Scholarship of Teaching and Learning (SoTL, is still relatively novel in many academic contexts compared to the mainstay of disciplinary research. One indication of this is the challenges those who engage in SoTL report in terms of how this work is valued or considered credible amongst disciplinary colleagues and in the face of institutional policies and practices. This paper moves beyond the literature that describes these specific challenges to investigate how 23 experienced SoTL researchers from five different countries understood the notion of credibility in relationship to their SoTL research and how they went about developing credibility for their work. Semi-structured interviews were facilitated and analyzed using inductive analysis. Findings indicate that notions of credibility encompassed putting SoTL research into action and building capacity and community around research findings, as well as gaining external validation through traditional indicators such as publishing. SoTL researchers reported a variety of strategies and approaches they were using, both formal and informal, to develop credibility for their work. The direct focus of this paper on credibility of SoTL work as perceived by experienced SoTL researchers, and how they go about developing credibility, is a distinct contribution to the discussions about the valuing of SoTL work.
Arnold, Julia C.
Health education is to foster health literacy, informed decision-making and to promote health behaviour. To date, there are several models that seek to explain health behaviour (e.g. the Theory of Planned Behaviour or the Health Belief Model). These models include motivational factors (expectancies and values) that play a role in decision-making…
Katrina L. Pariera
Full Text Available One of the most important literacy skills in today’s information society is the ability to determine the credibility of online information. Users sort through a staggering number of websites while discerning which will provide satisfactory information. In this study, 70 college students assessed the credibility of health websites with a low and high design quality, in either low or high credibility groups. The study’s purpose was to understand if students relied more on textual or visual cues in determining credibility, and to understand if this affected their recall of those cues later. The results indicate that when viewing a high credibility website, high design quality will bolster the credibility perception, but design quality will not compensate for a low credibility website. The recall test also indicated that credibility does impact the participants’ recall of visual and textual cues. Implications are discussed in light of the Elaboration Likelihood Model.
Winslow, M.; Akhtar-Schuster, M.; Cherlet, M.; Martius, C.; Sommer, S.; Thomas, R.; Vogt, J.
The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) is a global treaty that emerged from the Rio Earth Summit and formally took force in 1996. It has now been ratified by 193 countries (known as Parties to the Convention). Yet the UNCCD has gained only modest support from donors, largely due to questions about the science base underlying its target issue (desertification) resulting in ambiguous definitions and quantification of the problem. The UNCCD recognizes the need to reform itself and commissioned a scientific conference in Buenos Aires, Argentina in September 2009 to discuss ways to improve the scientific underpinning of monitoring and assessment (M&A) of desertification, land degradation and drought (DLDD). Previous attempts by the UNCCD on M&A focused largely on a search for a common, simple, universal set of indicators that could be reported by country Parties to the Convention Secretariat, which would collate them into a global report. However experience found that no single set of indicators is satisfactory to all countries, because DLDD depends strongly on the local environmental and human/social context. Three preparatory Working Groups analyzed the issue of DLDD M&A and recommended the following. Parties should recognize that M&A methods must integrate human-environment parameters to capture the complexity of DLDD phenomena as defined in the Convention’s text. Traditional tendencies had been to isolate biophysical from social and economic parameters, leading to unrealistic conclusions. Parties should take advantage of a much wider range of analytical techniques than just the coarse-scale indicators that had been their main focus to date. Powerful but underutilized techniques include integrated assessment models, remote sensing, geographic information systems and mapping, participatory stakeholder assessment, hierarchical aggregation of related data, knowledge management and many others. Multiple methods could provide validation checks
Full Text Available elements during upfront planning and decision making. This inevitably leads to fielding of systems and equipment without all POSTEDFIT elements being in place, resulting in an ineffective capability an ineffective insurance policy and a waste of taxpayer’s...
As with all media, the Internet structures and frames information, rewarding some information search and decision behaviors while punishing others and, thereby, strongly influences evaluation research results and possibilities. Now that the Internet is for many evaluators the information medium of choice, the impacts of the medium on evaluation…
The goal of the Peer Review Policy and this Handbook is to enhance the quality and credibility of Agency decisions by ensuring that the scientific and technical work products underlying these decisions receive appropriate levels of peer review by independe
Walton, M.; Boley, L.; Keenan, L.; Kerstman, E.; Shah, R.; Young, M.; Saile, L.; Garcia, Y.; Meyers, J.; Reyes, D.
The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009)  was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of
Palmatier, John J; Rovner, Louis
We briefly review comments submitted in response to the target article in this series (Palmatier & Rovner, 2015) arguing that a scientifically defensible construct for the instrumental assessment of credibility (i.e. polygraph) may be found in Barry's Preliminary Process Theory (PPT). Our review of the relevant scientific literature discovered a growing body of converging evidence, particularly from the neurosciences that focus not only on deception, but more broadly on memory, emotion, and the orienting response (OR), leading to this conclusion. After reviewing the submitted comments, we are further convinced, especially as applied scientists, that at this time the most viable direction forward is in the context of the PPT. Concurrently, we candidly acknowledge that research must be conducted to address not only commentator concerns but, if warranted, modification of existing theory. Although disagreement continues to exist regarding the order in which questions are asked, the most significant finding, is perhaps that not a single commentator argues against this growing, and vital applied science (i.e., the instrumental assessment of credibility - polygraph). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
James, Holly Mcdonnell
Girls are often found to drop out of science in greater numbers and sooner than boys. Because previous research has focused on gender differences, rather than examining differences and similarities among girls, little is known about why some girls choose to pursue science, particularly the physical sciences, rather than drop it. Specifically, little is known about how and why girls make their decisions to persist or not in specific science careers and the courses leading up to them. Through the use of semi-structured, in-depth, qualitative, interviews conducted over the span of a year, this thesis explored the choice of classes and career decisions of twelve elementary through high school girls who participated in an engineering camp. The purpose was to gain an understanding of why these girls chose to persist or not in a science and engineering career over time. Age-related differences were found in the reasons the girls gave for wanting to take future classes. The elementary school girls believed that interest would be their only reason while the high school girls gave multiple reasons, including interest, utility, perceptions of ability, and who would be teaching the class. The implications of these findings for Eccles' model of academic choice are discussed. Overall, the girls in this study liked their science classes because they involved hands-on activities. By high school they showed a preference for and a greater knowledge of biology rather than physics. All of the girls were unsure about what kinds of science information they would need to know for future jobs. Half of the girls were considering biology-based careers, such as doctors and veterinarians, because they wanted to help and take care of people and animals. Only one girl was considering engineering, a physics-based career, and only because her parents required it. Despite believing that they were doing well in school in general, at least half of the girls believed they were doing poorly in math
Smith, Colin Tucker; De Houwer, Jan; Nosek, Brian A
The long history of persuasion research shows how to change explicit, self-reported evaluations through direct appeals. At the same time, research on how to change implicit evaluations has focused almost entirely on techniques of retraining existing evaluations or manipulating contexts. In five studies, we examined whether direct appeals can change implicit evaluations in the same way as they do explicit evaluations. In five studies, both explicit and implicit evaluations showed greater evidence of persuasion following information presented by a highly credible source than a source low in credibility. Whereas cognitive load did not alter the effect of source credibility on explicit evaluations, source credibility had an effect on the persuasion of implicit evaluations only when participants were encouraged and able to consider information about the source. Our findings reveal the relevance of persuasion research for changing implicit evaluations and provide new ideas about the processes underlying both types of evaluation.
Jacobson, Miriam R; Azzam, Tarek
This article presents a study of the effects of stakeholder involvement on perceptions of an evaluation's credibility. Crowdsourced members of the public and a group of educational administrators read a description of a hypothetical program and two evaluations of the program: one conducted by a researcher and one conducted by program staff (i.e. program stakeholders). Study participants were randomly assigned versions of the scenario with different levels of stakeholder credibility and types of findings. Results showed that both samples perceived the researcher's evaluation findings to be more credible than the program staff's, but that this difference was significantly reduced when the program staff were described to be highly credible. The article concludes with implications for theory and research on evaluation dissemination and stakeholder involvement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Angkinand, Apanard; Wihlborg, Clas
level require analyses of institutional factors affecting the credibility of non-insurance. In particular, the implementation of effective distress resolution procedures for banks would allow governments to reduce explicit deposit insurance coverage and, thereby, to strengthen market discipline......The ambiguity in existing empirical work with respect to effects of deposit insurance schemes on banks' risk-taking can be resolved if it is recognized that absence of deposit insurance is rarely credible and that the credibility of non-insurance can be enhanced by explicit deposit insurance...... schemes. We show that under reasonable conditions for effects on risk-taking of creditor protection in banking, and for effects on credibility of non-insurance of explicit coverage of deposit insurance schemes, there exists a partial level of coverage that maximizes market discipline and minimizes moral...
... context throughout all phases of conflict. Although the target audiences may differ when a commander is considering message dissemination through either the PA or IC channel, the consistency of the messages is important to credibility...
Aysegul Ermec Sertoglu
Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to test whether the source credibility affects buying intention and measure the perceived credibility differences between created spokesperson and celebrity endorser. The influence that endorser credibility dimensions (i.e. attractiveness, trustworthiness and expertise have on purchase intentions of 326 young consumers has been examined. The results showed that all of the three credibility dimensions for both celebrity endorser and created spokesperson have a positive relationship with purchase intention. Created spokesperson is perceived to be more trustworthy and competent whereas the celebrity endorser is found to be more attractive by the respondents. This study is unique in a way that it covers fairly new and rapidly growing Turkish market. One factor that makes this study unique in Turkey, in which the usage of celebrity endorsers holds significant part in the marketing of products, is the lack of studies that would measure the effectiveness of this method.
Beutler, Larry E.; And Others
This study attempts to (1) assess the effects of therapist credibility and patient-therapist similarity on interpersonal persuasion; and (2) to further assess the relationship between patient attitude change and psychotherapy outcome. (HMV)
Analysis of potential preclosure and postclosure disruptive events and processes is comprised of evaluation of (1) potential uncertainties and omissions associated with characterization of the site; (2) credible events and processes resulting from the dynamics of natural systems; (3) potential, credible changes in isolation conditions induced by the presence of the repository, and (4) potential, credible future changes impacting isolation capability resulting from man's activities, independent of repository construction/operation. This report presents the overall methodology for identification, classification and analysis of disruptive events based on Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Environmental Protection Agency guidelines proposed in drafts of 10 CFR 60 and 40 CFR 191. Potential credible disruptive events, processes, and conditions are considered with respect to whether they are anticipated or unanticipated, and determined to have reasonably foreseeable, very unlikely, or extremely unlikely probability of occurrence. 85 refs., 2 figs., 7 tabs
Full Text Available This paper reports a comparison of South African household inflation expectations and inflation credibility surveys undertaken in 2006 and 2008. It tests for possible feed-through between inflation credibility and inflation expectations. It supplements earlier research that focused only on the 2006 survey results. The comparison shows that inflation expectations differed between different income groups in both 2006 and 2008. Inflation credibility differed between male and female respondents, but this difference did not feed through to inflation expectations. More periodic survey data will be required for developing final conclusions on the possibility of feed-through effects. To this end the structure of credibility surveys should be reconsidered, as a large percentage of respondents indicated that they ‘don’t know’ whether the historic rate of inflation is an accurate indication of price increases.
Rebelo, Marta Figueiredo
The purpose of this thesis is to understand the perception Instagram users, in other words consumers, have of influencers they follow on Instagram. Consumer perceived credibility of influencers, and its impact on the purchase intention, is therefore studied. This dissertation aims to highlight which credibility dimensions better explain the purchase intention. Gender is also explored to verify behavior differences between female and male consumers. To better analyze the perc...
This research conducted to know the influence of Brand Credibility to Information efficiency and Risk reduction, also the influence of Information efficiency and Risk reduction to Repurchase intention. This research aimed to know the influence of Brand Credibility to Repurchase intention that mediated by Information efficiency and Risk reduction. The methodology of this research is testing hypothesis research. The sample collecting by questionnaire of 150 respondents from Starb...
The application of social science has been recognized as a priority for effective ocean and coastal management, driving much discussion and fostering emerging efforts in several areas. The Interagency Working Group on Ocean Social Science (IWG-OSS) is tasked with assisting the Su...
Olson, Joanne K.; Bruxvoort, Crystal N.; Vande Haar, Andrea J.
Little is known about how the content of a video case influences what preservice teachers learn about science teaching. This study was designed to determine the impact of two different video cases on preservice elementary teachers' conceptions of multiple aspects of effective science teaching, with one video selected to focus attention on the role…
Kirby, Nicola Frances; Dempster, Edith Roslyn
The Foundation Programme of the Centre for Science Access at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa provides access to tertiary science studies to educationally disadvantaged students who do not meet formal faculty entrance requirements. The low number of students proceeding from the programme into mainstream is of concern, particularly…
Karl, Herman A.; Turner, Christine
The role of science in society is evolving as we enter the 21st century. The report, Science — The Endless Frontier (Bush 1990), outlined a model of national scientific research that served the country for 50 years. The contract between science and society established in that report stipulated that science is essential and that basic research meets national needs (Pielke and Byerly 1998). This stipulation and the abundant — seemingly unlimited and unquestioned — funding for research during the Cold War caused many scientists to come to believe that funding for science was an entitlement independent of societal needs. Implicit in this belief is that science alone can solve society’s problems. We now are learning that many policy issues that involve science involve diverse economic, political, social, and aesthetic values as well, and rarely, if ever, is scientific information alone the basis of public policy (e.g., see Sarewitz 1996a, 1996b; Frodeman 1997). Moreover, resources are increasingly more limited and many in society are questioning the value of public-supported science.
Wise, H F; Smith, L K; Einsweiler, R C; Jensen, D E
This part of the handbook addresses the basic how to do it - how states and local governments can identify complex and cross-cutting issues and develop and manage scientific and technical resources in seeking policy solutions to such issues. The following subjects are discussed: background statement of the issue; the research/decision-making process; defining problems and identifying research components; research and decision-making strategies; how to identify existing knowledge or ongoing research in the area of policy concern; and managing multi-disciplinary research. The fourteen agencies involved in this effort include: US Departments of Energy, Agriculture, Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, Environmental Protection Agency, and National Science Foundation. (PSB)
Full Text Available Organizational credibility, the extent of which an organization as the source of messages is perceived as trustworthy and reliable, is one important aspect to determine organization’s survival. The perceived credibility of the messages will either strengthen or worsen an organization reputation. The primary objective of this paper is to revisit the concept of organizational credibility and its interaction with organizational outcomes such as organizational reputation. Based on the situational crisis communication theory (SCCT, this paper focuses on the impact of organizational credibility on organizational reputation following a crisis. Even though the SCCT has been widely used in crisis communication research, the theory still has its own limitations in explaining factors that could potentially affect the reputation of an organization. This study proposes a model by integrating organizational credibility in the SCCT theoretical framework. Derived from the theoretical framework, three propositions are advanced to determine the relationships between organizational credibility with crisis responsibility and perceived organizational reputation. This paper contributes to further establishing the SCCT and posits key attributes in the organizational reputation processes..
Wieland, Patricia; Almeida, Ivan Pedro Salati de
The scientific considerations upon which the nuclear regulations are based provide objective criteria for decisions on nuclear safety matters. However, the decisions that a regulatory agency takes go far beyond granting or not an operating license based on assessment of compliance. It may involve decisions about hiring experts or research, appeals, responses to other government agencies, international agreements, etc.. In all cases, top management of the regulatory agency should hear and decide the best balance between the benefits of regulatory action and undue risks and other associated impacts that may arise, including issues of credibility and reputation. The establishment of a decision framework based on well established principles and criteria ensures performance stability and consistency, preventing individual subjectivity. This article analyzes the challenges to the decision-making by regulatory agencies to ensure coherence and consistency in decisions, even in situations where there is uncertainty, lack of reliable information and even divergence of opinions among experts. The article explores the basic elements for a framework for regulatory decision-making. (author)
Smith, L. A.
Is it conceivable that models run on 2007 computer hardware could provide robust and credible probabilistic information for decision support and user guidance at the ZIP code level for sub-daily meteorological events in 2060? In 2090? Retrospectively, how informative would output from today’s models have proven in 2003? or the 1930’s? Consultancies in the United Kingdom, including the Met Office, are offering services to “future-proof” their customers from climate change. How is a US or European based user or policy maker to determine the extent to which exciting new Bayesian methods are relevant here? or when a commercial supplier is vastly overselling the insights of today’s climate science? How are policy makers and academic economists to make the closely related decisions facing them? How can we communicate deep uncertainty in the future at small length-scales without undermining the firm foundation established by climate science regarding global trends? Three distinct aspects of the communication of the uses of climate model output targeting users and policy makers, as well as other specialist adaptation scientists, are discussed. First, a brief scientific evaluation of the length and time scales at which climate model output is likely to become uninformative is provided, including a note on the applicability the latest Bayesian methodology to current state-of-the-art general circulation models output. Second, a critical evaluation of the language often employed in communication of climate model output, a language which accurately states that models are “better”, have “improved” and now “include” and “simulate” relevant meteorological processed, without clearly identifying where the current information is thought to be uninformative and misleads, both for the current climate and as a function of the state of the (each) climate simulation. And thirdly, a general approach for evaluating the relevance of quantitative climate model output
Bertram, Timothy A; Johnson, Peter C; Tawil, Bill J; Van Dyke, Mark; Hellman, Kiki B
TERMIS-AM Industry Committee (TERMIS-AM/IC), in collaboration with the TERMIS-Europe (EU)/IC, conducted a symposium involving the European Medicines Agency and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) toward building an understanding of the rational basis for regulatory decision-making and providing a framework for decisions made during the evaluation of safety and efficacy of TE/RM technologies. This symposium was held in August 2012 during the TERMIS-WC in Vienna, Austria. Emerging from this international initiative by the European Union and the United States, representatives from the respective agencies demonstrated that there are ongoing interagency efforts for developing common national practices toward harmonization of regulatory requirements for the TE/RM products. To extend a broad-based understanding of the role of science in regulatory decision-making, TERMIS-AM/IC, in cooperation with the FDA, organized a symposium at the 2014 TERMIS-AM Annual Meeting, which was held in Washington, DC. This event provided insights from leaders in the FDA and TERMIS on the current status of regulatory approaches for the approved TE/RM products, the use of science in making regulatory decisions, and TE/RM technologies that are in the development pipeline to address unmet medical needs. A far-ranging discussion with FDA representatives, industrialists, physicians, regenerative medicine biologists, and tissue engineers considered the gaps in today's scientific and regulatory understanding of TE/RM technologies. The identified gaps represent significant opportunities to advance TE/RM technologies toward commercialization.
Full Text Available This study examines a pathway for building urban climate change mitigation policies by presenting a multi-dimensional and transdisciplinary approach in which technical, economic, environmental, social, and political dimensions interact. Now, more than ever, the gap between science and policymaking needs to be bridged; this will enable judicious choices to be made in regarding energy and climate change mitigation strategies, leading to positive social impacts, in particular for the populations at-risk at the local level. Through a case study in Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico, we propose a multidimensional and transdisciplinary approach with the role of scientist as policy advisers to improve the role of science in decision-making on mitigation policies at the local level in Mexico.
Barraza, Roberto; Velazquez-Angulo, Gilberto; Flores-Tavizón, Edith; Romero-González, Jaime; Huertas-Cardozo, José Ignacio
This study examines a pathway for building urban climate change mitigation policies by presenting a multi-dimensional and transdisciplinary approach in which technical, economic, environmental, social, and political dimensions interact. Now, more than ever, the gap between science and policymaking needs to be bridged; this will enable judicious choices to be made in regarding energy and climate change mitigation strategies, leading to positive social impacts, in particular for the populations at-risk at the local level. Through a case study in Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico, we propose a multidimensional and transdisciplinary approach with the role of scientist as policy advisers to improve the role of science in decision-making on mitigation policies at the local level in Mexico.
Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,
Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.
Deppe, M; Schwindt, W; Krämer, J; Kugel, H; Plassmann, H; Kenning, P; Ringelstein, E B
Neural processes within the medial prefrontal cortex play a crucial role in assessing and integrating emotional and other implicit information during decision-making. Phylogenetically, it was important for the individual to assess the relevance of all kinds of environmental stimuli in order to adapt behavior in a flexible manner. Consequently, we can in principle not exclude that environmental information covertly influences the evaluation of actually decision relevant facts ("framing effect"). To test the hypothesis that the medial prefrontal cortex is involved into a framing effect we employed functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during a binary credibility judgment task. Twenty-one subjects were asked to judge 30 normalized news magazine headlines by forced answers as "true" or "false". To confound the judgments by formally irrelevant framing information we presented each of the headlines in four different news magazines characterized by varying credibility. For each subject the susceptibility to the judgment confounder (framing information) was assessed by magazine-specific modifications of the answers given. We could show that individual activity changes of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex during the judgments correlate with the degree of an individual's susceptibility to the framing information. We found (i) a neural correlate of a framing effect as postulated by behavioral decision theorists that (ii) reflects interindividual differences in the degree of the susceptibility to framing information.
Hwang, Gwo-Jen; Chu, Hui-Chun; Shih, Ju-Ling; Huang, Shu-Hsien; Tsai, Chin-Chung
A context-aware ubiquitous learning environment is an authentic learning environment with personalized digital supports. While showing the potential of applying such a learning environment, researchers have also indicated the challenges of providing adaptive and dynamic support to individual students. In this paper, a decision-tree-oriented…
Bednarek, A.; Close, S.; Curran, K.; Hudson, C.
Addressing contemporary sustainability challenges requires attention to the integration of scientific knowledge into decision-making and deliberation. However, this remains a challenge in practice. We contend that careful stewardship of this process of integration can result in positive, durable outcomes by reconciling the production and use of scientific knowledge, and improve its relevance and utility to decision-makers. We will share lessons learned from a grantmaking program that has addressed this challenge through programmatic innovations, including by supporting staff devoted to an intermediary role. Over the past 13 years, the Lenfest Ocean Program served in a boundary spanning role by integrating decision-makers into the scoping and outreach of program supported scientific research grants. Program staff engage with decision-makers and influencers to identify policy-relevant research questions and approaches, ensuring that the research direction addresses users' needs. As research progresses, the staff monitor the grant's progress to improve the match between the research and user needs. The process is resource-intensive, however, and raises interesting questions about the role and development of this kind of specialist within different kinds of institutions, including funding agencies. We suggest that nurturing this role as a practice and profession could ultimately help the scientific community more efficiently respond to sustainability challenges.
Ismail, Sharif; Nason, Edward; Marjanovic, Sonja; Grant, Jonathan
Abstract Bibliometric analysis is an increasingly important part of a broader “toolbox” of evaluation methods available to research and development (R&D) policymakers to support decision-making. In the US, UK and Australia, for example, there is evidence of gradual convergence over the past ten years towards a model of university research assessment and ranking incorporating the use of bibliometric measures. In Britain, the Department of Health (England) has shown growing interest in using bibliometric analysis to support prospective R&D decision-making, and has engaged RAND Europe's expertise in this area through a number of exercises since 2005. These range from the macro-level selection of potentially high impact institutions, to micro-level selection of high impact individuals for the National Institute for Health Research's faculty of researchers. The aim of this study is to create an accessible, “beginner's guide” to bibliometric theory and application in the area of health R&D decision-making. The study also aims to identify future directions and possible next steps in this area, based on RAND Europe's work with the Department of Health to date. It is targeted at a range of audiences, and will be of interest to health and biomedical researchers, as well as R&D decision-makers in the UK and elsewhere. The study was completed with funding support from RAND Europe's Health R&D Policy Research Unit with the Department of Health. PMID:28083218
Explores the ways in which nonscientists inform themselves and make decisions about complex and technological controversies. Explores the prejudice against emotion in a 1976-77 case before the Cambridge Experimentation Review Board. Suggests that, in spite of some cultural bias against pathos, emotional appeals play a vital role in the shaping of…
McDonald, Christine V.
A central objective of recent government reports focused on the important role of education in preparing a skilled and dynamic science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) workforce, with effective teaching in secondary STEM classrooms reliant on the engagement and retention of high-quality STEM teachers (Office of the Chief Scientist,…
Schöne-Seifert, Bettina; Reichardt, Jan-Ole; Friedrich, Daniel R; Hucklenbroich, Peter
Decisions about therapeutic interventions to be made by physicians, patients, and healthcare purchasers essentially depend on their classification in a credible context of justification, especially in a world dominated by contradicting experts. To some extent, this framing is done by sorting terms and their undertones, including the case of so-called CAM measures. In this paper, the authors reflect on ways to deal with the term CAM and the underlying supply-side approaches to healthcare from a primarily science-oriented perspective. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier GmbH.
The fundamental objective of all nuclear safety regulatory bodies is to ensure that nuclear utilities operate their plants at all times in an acceptably safe manner. In meeting this objective, the regulatory body should strive to ensure that its regulatory decisions are technically sound, consistent from case to case, and timely. In addition, the regulator must be aware that its decisions and the circumstances surrounding those decisions can affect how its stakeholders, such as government policy makers, the industry it regulates, and the public, view it as an effective and credible regulator. In order to maintain the confidence of those stakeholders, the regulator should make sure that its decisions are transparent, have a clear basis in law and regulations, and are seen by impartial observers to be fair to all parties. Based on the work of a Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) expert group, this report discusses some of the basic principles and criteria that a regulatory body should consider in making decisions and describes the elements of an integrated framework for regulatory decision making. (author)
Berger, Loïc; Bleichrodt, Han; Eeckhoudt, Louis
Many health risks are ambiguous in the sense that reliable and credible information about these risks is unavailable. In health economics, ambiguity is usually handled through sensitivity analysis, which implicitly assumes that people are neutral towards ambiguity. However, empirical evidence suggests that people are averse to ambiguity and react strongly to it. This paper studies the effects of ambiguity aversion on two classical medical decision problems. If there is ambiguity regarding the diagnosis of a patient, ambiguity aversion increases the decision maker's propensity to opt for treatment. On the other hand, in the case of ambiguity regarding the effects of treatment, ambiguity aversion leads to a reduction in the propensity to choose treatment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Haase, Niels; Betsch, Cornelia; Renkewitz, Frank
Immunization rates are below the Global Immunization Vision and Strategy established by the World Health Organization. One reason for this are anti-vaccination activists, who use the Internet to disseminate their agenda, frequently by publishing narrative reports about alleged vaccine adverse events. In health communication, the use of narrative information has been shown to be effectively persuasive. Furthermore, persuasion research indicates that the credibility of an information source may serve as a cue to discount or augment the communicated message. Thus, the present study investigated the effect of source credibility on the biasing effect of narrative information regarding the perception of vaccination risks. 265 participants were provided with statistical information (20%) regarding the occurrence of vaccine adverse events after vaccination against a fictitious disease. This was followed by 20 personalized narratives from an online forum on vaccination experiences. The authors varied the relative frequency of narratives reporting vaccine adverse events (35% vs. 85%), narrative source credibility (anti-vaccination website vs. neutral health forum), and the credibility of the statistical information (reliable data vs. unreliable data vs. control) in a between-subjects design. Results showed a stable narrative bias on risk perception that was not affected by credibility cues. However, narratives from an anti-vaccination website generally led to lower perceptions of vaccination risks.
Full Text Available The issue of credibility becomes especially pronounced in times of crises, which characteristically abound in the unknown, uncertainty, and doubt. Such crises are mostly sudden, often complex, andsometimes mired in controversial events. The public subsequently craves more information in times of crises, such that they may obtain more precise guidance, and ease their ability to cope. Given the relatively low frequency of crisis situations, most people lack actual experience relevant to a given predicament. The appearance of Virus A (H1N1 at the onset of 2009 is one such case. Despite H1N1’s classification as a broad-scale, serious health hazard, preventive vaccinations failed to reach a large segment of the population. We contend that the lack of credibility in informing the public through the media contributed considerably to this failure. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to determine the level of credible information provided by the print media from which the general public could have taken an informed position on the crisis in question. Quantitative research and content analysis ascertained from a body of print media sources with national coverage reveals that the Croatian print media, contrary to our expectations, largely rely on official sources and transparently cite authors, which contributes to a higher degree of credibility. Yet further analysis of the number of sources suggests that most journalists used on average only one or no named sources, which significantly reduces the credibility of the published articles.
Linking Science and Management in an Interactive Geospatial, Mutli-Criterion, Structured Decision Support Framework: Use Case Studies of the "Future Forests Geo-visualization and Decision Support Tool
Pontius, J.; Duncan, J.
landscape. It also demonstrates the importance of including climate considerations for long-term management. This merging of scientific knowledge with the diversity of stakeholder needs is an important step towards using science to inform management and policy decisions.
Hren, Stephen Frank
The purpose of this study was to determine how perceived gender roles developed throughout childhood and early adulthood impacted the career decisions of women in science-related career fields. An additional purpose was to determine if my experiences as I analyzed the data and the propositions discovered in the study would become a transformative agent for me. A multicase framework was utilized so that within and between case analyses could be achieved. Four women who showed early promise in science were chosen as the case study participants. The relationship of gender roles to the career decisions made by the four cases were arbitrated through three areas: (a) supports, which came from parents, immediate family members, spouses, teachers, mentors, and collaborators; (b) opportunities, which were separated into family experiences and opportunities, school and community opportunities, and postsecondary/current opportunities; and (c) postmodern feminism, which was the lens that grounded this study and fit well with the lives of the cases. As seen through a postmodern feminist lens, the cases' social class, their lived experiences tied to their opportunities and supports, and the culture of growing up in a small rural community helped them develop personas for the professions they chose even where those professions did not necessarily follow from the early promise shown for a science-related career. In addition, as related to my transformation as a male researcher, being a male conducting research in a realm most often shared by women, I was able to gain greater empathy and understanding of what it takes for women to be successful in a career and at the same time maintain a fruitful family life.
Betsch, Cornelia; Böhm, Robert; Airhihenbuwa, Collins O.; Butler, Robb; Chapman, Gretchen B.; Haase, Niels; Herrmann, Benedikt; Igarashi, Tasuku; Kitayama, Shinobu; Korn, Lars; Nurm, Ülla-Karin; Rohrmann, Bernd; Rothman, Alexander J.; Shavitt, Sharon; Updegraff, John A.
This review introduces the concept of culture-sensitive health communication. The basic premise is that congruency between the recipient's cultural characteristics and the respective message will increase the communication's effectiveness. Culture-sensitive health communication is therefore defined as the deliberate and evidence-informed adaptation of health communication to the recipients' cultural background in order to increase knowledge and improve preparation for medical decision making ...
Gibbs, M; Sigal, J; Friedman, C R; Orosy-fildes, C
This paper presents two studies investigating judgments in a simulated sexual harassment hearing in which 240 male and female undergraduates participated. The transcript presented a female student's allegations of sexual harassment against a male professor. In the first experiment, 4 versions of a transcript were created, varying the aggressiveness of the attack on the female student complainant and the status of the accused professor. The findings supported the hypothesis that an aggressive attack negatively affects believability of the victim. The findings are also consistent with previous studies, which found out that denial was an effective technique for handling attacks. In the second experiment, the case was modified as to the emotionality of both the victim and the accused and the time of the between the occurrence and the reporting of the alleged harassment incident (1 month vs. 6 months). The results indicated that emotionality was important to decisions about the severity of punishment and guilt; when the victim was emotional, the defendant was punished more severely. Both experiments indicated that process variables (e.g., aggressiveness of attack) might be important in the perception of sexual harassment.
Butler, Daniel M.; Butler, Richard J.
The late 1990s saw the introduction and spread of the Internet and email. For social scientists, these technologies lowered communication costs and made inter-department collaboration much easier. Using women in political science as a case study, we show that this change has disproportionately affected women in two ways. First, women have…
Full Text Available In Cuba and other countries of Latin America are thousands of professionals graduated in the economic sciences that are working as specialists, officials and directive in companies, organisms and entities of the central administration of the state, as well as professors and investigators in universities and centers and institutes of scientific investigations. Many of them have developed diverse study, organized in masters courses, and want to continue their professional development in order to obtaining of doctor's scientific grade, but many of them ignore the form and the roads to be able to reach this purpose. Doctor`s degree in specialties of economics sciences is possible to obtain in Cuba. It is generally achieved in time shared with the applicant's habitual work, usually in one period between 3 and 5 years, by programs of study of curricular doctorate or through topics framed in investigation projects approved by the Ministry of Sciences, Technology and Environment, which is directed with academic rigor by the National Commission of Scientific Grades and by means of the guide of each applicant's individual program, by a professional of prestige that shows doctor's grade who acts as tutor. The central objective of the present work is to explain the main characteristics of the process to carry out the doctorate studies in economic sciences in Cuba, the requirements and the main roads to carry out them with the elaboration of the grade thesis and its defense in the Permanent National Tribunal of Scientific Grades of each specialty of the economic sciences, as well as some considerations regarding the elements that cannot be outside in the design of the investigation.
Full Text Available Dalam penelitian ini dikaji hasil tiga eksperimen sebagai kelanjutan studi yang pernah dilakukan oleh Kurosu-Kashimura  dan Noam Tractinsky  tentang relasi antara persepsi pengguna dengan kualitas estetik dan usability tampilan interface. Berdasar dua premis utama yaitu bahwa persepsi estetik dipengaruhi latar belakang kultural serta tampilan yang atraktif dapat mempengaruhi persepsi kehandalan sebuah produk., Dalam penelitian ini dievaluasi bagaimana persepsi pengguna migran (:orang Indonesia yang berada di Jepang terhadap relasi antara tampilan estetik dan apparent usability pada sebuah interface produk. Dalam eksperimen dilakukan investigasi efek tampilan warna pada sebuah interface produk terhadap persepsi trustworthy (tingkat kepercayaan dan credibility (tingkat kredibilitas produk secara umum. Sebagai stimulus, digunakan tampilan layout-utama (hasil modifikasi layar ATM bank di Jepang. Hasil eksperimen menunjukkan bahwa nilai estetik tampilan interface mempengaruhi persepsi user atas credibility (tingkat kredibilitas dan trustworthy (tingkat kepercayaan sebuah objek. Latar belakang budaya pengguna tidak memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap persepsi estetik tampilan interface apabila pengguna telah melakukan adaptasi eksperiential atau memiliki pengalaman interaksi dengan produk dengan komposisi layout sejenis. Lebih lanjut hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa warna memiliki pengaruh penting dalam meningkatkan kualitas ke-atraktif-an, persepsi kredibiltas (credibility, dan tingkat penerimaan (acceptability pengguna (user. Eksperimen lebih lanjut perlu dilakukan untuk mengetahui bagaimana dan seperti apa sebuah kombinasi warna pada sebuah tampilan interface, dapat memiliki pengaruh yang bermakna pada keterpakaian sebuah produk.
Vincent, E. M.; Matlock, T.; Westerling, A. L.
While most scientists recognize climate change as a major societal and environmental issue, social and political will to tackle the problem is still lacking. One of the biggest obstacles is inaccurate reporting or even outright misinformation in climate change coverage that result in the confusion of the general public on the issue.In today's era of instant access to information, what we read online usually falls outside our field of expertise and it is a real challenge to evaluate what is credible. The emerging technology of web annotation could be a game changer as it allows knowledgeable individuals to attach notes to any piece of text of a webpage and to share them with readers who will be able to see the annotations in-context -like comments on a pdf.Here we present the Climate Feedback initiative that is bringing together a community of climate scientists who collectively evaluate the scientific accuracy of influential climate change media coverage. Scientists annotate articles sentence by sentence and assess whether they are consistent with scientific knowledge allowing readers to see where and why the coverage is -or is not- based on science. Scientists also summarize the essence of their critical commentary in the form of a simple article-level overall credibility rating that quickly informs readers about the credibility of the entire piece.Web-annotation allows readers to 'hear' directly from the experts and to sense the consensus in a personal way as one can literaly see how many scientists agree with a given statement. It also allows a broad population of scientists to interact with the media, notably early career scientists.In this talk, we will present results on the impacts annotations have on readers -regarding their evaluation of the trustworthiness of the information they read- and on journalists -regarding their reception of scientists comments.Several dozen scientists have contributed to this effort to date and the system offers potential to
Ghasemy Yaghin, R.; Fatemi Ghomi, S. M. T.; Torabi, S. A.
In most markets, price differentiation mechanisms enable manufacturers to offer different prices for their products or services in different customer segments; however, the perfect price discrimination is usually impossible for manufacturers. The importance of accounting for uncertainty in such environments spurs an interest to develop appropriate decision-making tools to deal with uncertain and ill-defined parameters in joint pricing and lot-sizing problems. This paper proposes a hybrid bi-objective credibility-based fuzzy optimisation model including both quantitative and qualitative objectives to cope with these issues. Taking marketing and lot-sizing decisions into account simultaneously, the model aims to maximise the total profit of manufacturer and to improve service aspects of retailing simultaneously to set different prices with arbitrage consideration. After applying appropriate strategies to defuzzify the original model, the resulting non-linear multi-objective crisp model is then solved by a fuzzy goal programming method. An efficient stochastic search procedure using particle swarm optimisation is also proposed to solve the non-linear crisp model.
Kristine L. Nowak
Full Text Available Electronic Word of Mouth (eWOM is information shared on the Internet about a product, which allows people to receive information from others they may not otherwise encounter. Online product reviews are a type of eWOM where a user posts a comment about a product and selects an image to represent the self. The perception of the image and the text in the product review can influence source credibility and the perception of the product, as well as the likelihood that someone will purchase the product. This study examines the effect of the product reviews and their different images and text on perceived credibility, source trustworthiness and purchase intention. Consistent with predictions based on the information processing theory, perceived anthropomorphism influences perceived credibility, source trust, and purchase intention.
Hur, Sup; Park, Jae Chang; Choi, Jong Gyun; Kim, Jung Taek; Kim, Chang Hwoi
This study suggests a methodology of severe accident mitigation support with speediness and credibility. Using this methodology, the severe accident is automatically identified based on the information credibility check. And then, proper mitigation function, available mitigation routes, and an optimal mitigation path are automatically suggested. The basic logic of the information credibility is based on environmental evaluation, historical evaluation and some conventional methods such as redundancy and diversity comparison of instruments. To identify the available mitigation routes, availability of paths and components, source status, process limitation, expected adverse effect, and mitigation capability of the path are automatically were evaluated. Among the available routes, the optimal mitigation path was finally suggested based on the path priority criteria and physical relationship
A simple technique is presented for estimating maximum credible gross beta air concentrations from nuclear detonations in the atmosphere, based on aircraft sampling of radioactivity following each Chinese nuclear test from 1964 to 1976. The calculated concentration is a function of the total yield and fission yield, initial vertical radioactivity distribution, time after detonation, and rate of horizontal spread of the debris with time. calculated maximum credible concentrations are compared with the highest concentrations measured during aircraft sampling. The technique provides a reasonable estimate of maximum air concentrations from 1 to 10 days after a detonation. An estimate of the whole-body external gamma dose rate corresponding to the maximum credible gross beta concentration is also given. (author)
Wessel, Ellen; Drevland, Guri C B; Eilertsen, Dag Erik; Magnussen, Svein
Previous studies have shown that the emotional behavior displayed during testimony may affect the perceived credibility of the witness. The present study compares credibility ratings by Norwegian court judges with those made by lay people. The participants viewed one of three video-recorded versions of a rape victim's statement, role played by a professional actress. The statement was given in a free-recall manner with one of three kinds of emotions displayed, termed congruent, neutral, and incongruent emotional expression. The results show that, in contrast to lay people, the credibility ratings of court judges and their votes for a guilty verdict were not influenced by the emotions displayed by the witness. Results are discussed in terms of professional expertise.
Give us the tools: science and technology for development. Ottawa, ...... altered technical rela- tionships among the factors used in the process of production, and the en- .... to ourselves only the rights of audit and periodic substantive review." If a ...... and destroying scarce water reserves, recreational areas and a generally.
Karyne Cristine da Fonseca
Full Text Available This article has as purpose to analise the professional´s music therapist´s perception about the credibility and approval of music therapy by their clients. It´s a qualitative research, developed in Goiânia-GO, between 2003, august and 2004, june. We verified that the professional´s majority noted their client´s credibility related to music capacity in transmitting pleasant sensations and its capacity to act in a efficient way on the healing process of some diseases. They too evidence that the music therapy needs to be published with more effectiveness for the population.
Saripalle, Sashi K; Vemulapalli, Spandana; King, Gregory W; Burgoon, Judee K; Derakhshani, Reza
This paper discusses the advantages of using posturographic signals from force plates for non-invasive credibility assessment. The contributions of our work are two fold: first, the proposed method is highly efficient and non invasive. Second, feasibility for creating an autonomous credibility assessment system using machine-learning algorithms is studied. This study employs an interview paradigm that includes subjects responding with truthful and deceptive intent while their center of pressure (COP) signal is being recorded. Classification models utilizing sets of COP features for deceptive responses are derived and best accuracy of 93.5% for test interval is reported.
Triining in the Context of Credibility Rating Procedures by Hans BShlmann, Alois Gisler, William S. Jewell* 1. Motivation In Ratemaking and in Experience...work on the ETH computer. __.1: " Zen * ’ ’ II / -2- 2. The Basic Model Throughout the paper we work with the most simple model in the credibility...additional structure are summed up by stating that the density -3- f 8 (x) has the following form 1) fe(x) -(1-r)po (x/e) + rape(x) 3. The Basic Problem As
Werner, C. R.; Humphreys, B. T.; Mulugeta, L.
The Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) is the resistive exercise device used by astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) to mitigate bone loss and muscle atrophy due to extended exposure to microgravity (micro g). The Digital Astronaut Project (DAP) has developed a multi-body dynamics model of biomechanics models for use in spaceflight exercise physiology research and operations. In an effort to advance model maturity and credibility of the ARED model, the DAP performed verification, validation and credibility (VV and C) assessment of the analyses of the model in accordance to NASA-STD-7009 'Standards for Models and Simulations'.
Kirby, Nicola Frances; Dempster, Edith Roslyn
The Foundation Programme of the Centre for Science Access at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa provides access to tertiary science studies to educationally disadvantaged students who do not meet formal faculty entrance requirements. The low number of students proceeding from the programme into mainstream is of concern, particularly given the national imperative to increase participation and levels of performance in tertiary-level science. An attempt was made to understand foundation student performance in a campus of this university, with the view to identifying challenges and opportunities for remediation in the curriculum and processes of selection into the programme. A classification and regression tree analysis was used to identify which variables best described student performance. The explanatory variables included biographical and school-history data, performance in selection tests, and socio-economic data pertaining to their year in the programme. The results illustrate the prognostic reliability of the model used to select students, raise concerns about the inefficiency of school performance indicators as a measure of students' academic potential in the Foundation Programme, and highlight the importance of accommodation arrangements and financial support for student success in their access year.
Shirley, Rachel [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Smidts, Carol [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Boring, Ronald [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Li, Yuandan [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Mosleh, Ali [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
Information-Decision-Action Crew (IDAC) operator model simulations of a Steam Generator Tube Rupture are compared to student operator performance in studies conducted in the Ohio State University’s Nuclear Power Plant Simulator Facility. This study is presented as a prototype for conducting simulator studies to validate key aspects of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods. Seven student operator crews are compared to simulation results for crews designed to demonstrate three different decision-making strategies. The IDAC model used in the simulations is modified slightly to capture novice behavior rather that expert operators. Operator actions and scenario pacing are compared. A preliminary review of available performance shaping factors (PSFs) is presented. After the scenario in the NPP Simulator Facility, student operators review a video of the scenario and evaluate six PSFs at pre-determined points in the scenario. This provides a dynamic record of the PSFs experienced by the OSU student operators. In this preliminary analysis, Time Constraint Load (TCL) calculated in the IDAC simulations is compared to TCL reported by student operators. We identify potential modifications to the IDAC model to develop an “IDAC Student Operator Model.” This analysis provides insights into how similar experiments could be conducted using expert operators to improve the fidelity of IDAC simulations.
Berry, Tanya R; Shields, Chris
The relationship of attributed source (commercial or nonprofit) and credibility of exercise advertisements to explicit and implicit exercise-related attitudes and intentions was examined. Male and female participants (N = 227) were randomly assigned to watch health or appearance-related advertisements and then completed an implicit attitudes task and questionnaires. Health advertisements and those attributed to a nonprofit source were rated more credible. Appearance condition participants who attributed the advertisement to a nonprofit source also rated the advertisement as more credible. Participants who rated a commercial advertisement as credible reported higher implicit instrumental attitudes. Implications for exercise promotion are discussed.
Runge, Michael C.; McDonald-Madden, Eve
All decisions have the same recognizable elements. Context, objectives, alternatives, consequences, and deliberation. Decision makers and analysts familiar with these elements can quickly see the underlying structure of a decision.There are only a small number of classes of decisions. These classes differ in the cognitive and scientific challenge they present to the decision maker; the ability to recognize the class of decision leads a decision maker to tools to aid in the analysis.Sometimes we need more information, sometimes we don’t. The role of science in a decision-making process is to provide the predictions that link the alternative actions to the desired outcomes. Investing in more science is only valuable if it helps to choose a better action.Implementation. The successful integration of decision analysis into environmental decisions requires careful attention to the decision, the people, and the institutions involved.
Coleman, C. Norman; Koerner, John F.
The public health and medical response to a radiological or nuclear incident requires the capability to sort, assess, treat, triage and to ultimately discharge, refer or transport people to their next step in medical care. The size of the incident and scarcity of resources at the location of each medical decision point will determine how patients are triaged and treated. This will be a rapidly evolving situation impacting medical responders at regional, national and international levels. As capabilities, diagnostics and medical countermeasures improve, a dynamic system-based approach is needed to plan for and manage the incident, and to adapt effectively in real time. In that the concepts and terms can be unfamiliar and possibly confusing, resources and a concept of operations must be considered well in advance. An essential underlying tenet is that medical evaluation and care will be managed by health-care professionals with biodosimetry assays providing critical supporting data. (authors)
Perez, Bianca; Liberman, Aaron
This article explores the issues of risk taking and decision making in health care. An analysis of various sociocultural and psychological influences is provided for understanding of the dominant mind set in this industry. In tandem with this analysis, the evolution of system theories is described so as to promote understanding of the relative merits of the mechanistic and complexity philosophies. These philosophies are at odds with each other, conceptually and practically speaking; however, it seems that the complexity approach offers more promising strategies for the growth and development of health care. Recommendations for improving employee competencies and the organizational structure and culture in health care are offered in light of this analysis. These recommendations are relevant to activities that are clinical and administrative in nature.
Feltz, Wayne; Griffin, Sarah; Velden, Christopher; Zipser, Ed; Cecil, Daniel; Braun, Scott
The purpose of this presentation is to identify in-flight hazards to high-altitude aircraft, namely the Global Hawk. The Global Hawk was used during Septembers 2012-2016 as part of two NASA funded Hurricane Sentinel-3 field campaigns to over-fly hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. This talk identifies the cause of severe turbulence experienced over Hurricane Emily (2005) and how a combination of NOAA funded GOES-R algorithm derived cloud top heights/tropical overshooting tops using GOES-13/SEVIRI imager radiances, and lightning information are used to identify areas of potential turbulence for near real-time navigation decision support. Several examples will demonstrate how the Global Hawk pilots remotely received and used real-time satellite derived cloud and lightning detection information to keep the aircraft safely above clouds and avoid regions of potential turbulence.
Eaton, Timothy T.
Complex scientific and non-scientific considerations are central to the pending decisions about “hydrofracking” or high volume hydraulic fracturing (HVHF) to exploit unconventional natural gas resources worldwide. While incipient plans are being made internationally for major shale reservoirs, production and technology are most advanced in the United States, particularly in Texas and Pennsylvania, with a pending decision in New York State whether to proceed. In contrast to the narrow scientific and technical debate to date, focused on either greenhouse gas emissions or water resources, toxicology and land use in the watersheds that supply drinking water to New York City (NYC), I review the scientific and technical aspects in combination with global climate change and other critical issues in energy tradeoffs, economics and political regulation to evaluate the major liabilities and benefits. Although potential benefits of Marcellus natural gas exploitation are large for transition to a clean energy economy, at present the regulatory framework in New York State is inadequate to prevent potentially irreversible threats to the local environment and New York City water supply. Major investments in state and federal regulatory enforcement will be required to avoid these environmental consequences, and a ban on drilling within the NYC water supply watersheds is appropriate, even if more highly regulated Marcellus gas production is eventually permitted elsewhere in New York State. - Highlights: • Analyses of hydrofracking for natural gas production worldwide are too focused. • Energy benefits are great but so are environmental/public health liabilities. • Current dependence on even more damaging coal-fired power can be reduced. • Protecting watersheds for NYC and other municipality water supply is paramount. • Strengthening of regulation is needed for reducing potential adverse impacts
Eaton, Timothy T., E-mail: Timothy.Eaton@qc.cuny.edu
Complex scientific and non-scientific considerations are central to the pending decisions about “hydrofracking” or high volume hydraulic fracturing (HVHF) to exploit unconventional natural gas resources worldwide. While incipient plans are being made internationally for major shale reservoirs, production and technology are most advanced in the United States, particularly in Texas and Pennsylvania, with a pending decision in New York State whether to proceed. In contrast to the narrow scientific and technical debate to date, focused on either greenhouse gas emissions or water resources, toxicology and land use in the watersheds that supply drinking water to New York City (NYC), I review the scientific and technical aspects in combination with global climate change and other critical issues in energy tradeoffs, economics and political regulation to evaluate the major liabilities and benefits. Although potential benefits of Marcellus natural gas exploitation are large for transition to a clean energy economy, at present the regulatory framework in New York State is inadequate to prevent potentially irreversible threats to the local environment and New York City water supply. Major investments in state and federal regulatory enforcement will be required to avoid these environmental consequences, and a ban on drilling within the NYC water supply watersheds is appropriate, even if more highly regulated Marcellus gas production is eventually permitted elsewhere in New York State. - Highlights: • Analyses of hydrofracking for natural gas production worldwide are too focused. • Energy benefits are great but so are environmental/public health liabilities. • Current dependence on even more damaging coal-fired power can be reduced. • Protecting watersheds for NYC and other municipality water supply is paramount. • Strengthening of regulation is needed for reducing potential adverse impacts.
This study examined the effects of counselor bilingual ability and counselor ethnicity on client-perceived counselor credibility and cultural competence. Participants were assigned to 1 of 4 treatment conditions created by crossing counselor ethnicity with counselor language. No significant differences were found. Regarding rank ordering of the…
Bauer, Anja; Pregernig, Michael; Reinecke, Sabine
This article asks how scientific advisory institutions (SAIs) in climate policy strive towards effectiveness. Our analysis is grounded on the assumption that effectiveness is not passively experienced but is deliberately enacted by SAIs. We draw on a widely used set of criteria, namely saliency, credibility and legitimacy (SCL). Based on an…
van Veldhuizen, T.S.; Horselenberg, R.; Landström, S.; Granhag, P.A.; van Koppen, P.J.
The aim of the current vignette study is to map the style, type, and themes of questions that are asked when assessing the credibility of asylum seekers' claims. Sixty-five officials from the Swedish Migration Agency (Migrationsverket), were asked to respond to one out of four different vignettes
Civil Society and the Conduct of Free, Fair and Credible Election: Lessons from ... of Non Governmental agencies like civil society to prevent the government of the ... fair so as to rid the continent of its notorious record of post election violence.
Nes, C.N. van Houtenbos, M. & Schagen, I.N.L.G. van
Speeding is still a common practice on many roads and it contributes to a significant number of crashes. Two new approaches to solve speeding issues are focused on: intelligent speed assistance systems (ISA) and speed limit credibility. Research has indicated that ISA is promising with respect to
Ruppert, Bryan; Green, David A.
The authors investigate the importance of instructor communication behaviors in a course on business communication, arguing that alignment between instructor behaviors and the precepts of the discipline has a pronounced effect on perceived instructor credibility in this field. Student evaluations were analyzed qualitatively for their comments on…
Obermiller, Carl; Ruppert, Bryan; Atwood, April
Business communication instructors can face a unique set of challenges to maintain their credibility with students. Communication plays an important role in the instructor-student relationship, and students judge instructors' ability to teach communication based on their ability to practice what they teach. The authors' empirical study shows that…
Hunsaker, David M.
Explores the concepts of freedom and responsibility in the context of First Amendment theory through an examination of the interrelationships between defamation law, access to media, and media credibility. Calls for a reassessment of the importance of defamation law in First Amendment theory. (JMF)
Dana Raluca Buturoiu
Full Text Available This research paper focuses on indirect (mediated media effects. In particular, we discuss which independent variables might intervene in and moderate the impact of framing effects on public attitudes (namely political trust, both in short-term and medium-term contexts. Among these, we focus on source credibility as a possible moderator of framing effects over time. The purpose of this study was to examine if and how source credibility influences individuals’ political trust. The moderator role of source credibility is analysed according to the exposure to different types of frames (repetitive or competitive at different moments (one week or one month. By means of a framing experiment (N=769 on political topics, we argue that media frames could influence political trust: Source credibility has a marginal influence, which suggests that, with stronger stimulus material (video, as opposed to written press articles, the source could play an important role in the willingness of people to trust political figures in general. Thus, we might argue that the media play a significant role not only in offering information about politics and politicians, but also in altering people’s perceptions about them. On the other hand, time seems to matter, since framing effects are more powerful after competitive media exposures. This study proposes new theoretical insights into framing effects, in the sense that classical theories should be revisited in various cultural or political contexts
Mazer, Joseph P.; Murphy, Richard E.; Simonds, Cheri J.
Research suggests that teachers who personalize their teaching through the use of humor, stories, enthusiasm, and self-disclosure are perceived by their students to be effective in explaining course content. This experimental study examined the effects of computer-mediated teacher self-disclosure on perceptions of teacher credibility. Participants…
Dickinson, D.R.; McLaren, J.M.; Borsheim, G.L.; Crippen, M.D.
The single-shell waste tanks at the Hanford Site that contain significant quantities of ferrocyanide have been considered a possible hazard, since under certain conditions the ferrocyanide in the waste tanks could undergo an exothermic chemical reaction with the nitrates and nitrites that are also present in the tanks. The purpose of this report is to assess the credibility of local dryout of ferrocyanide due to a hotspot. This report considers the following: What amount of decay heat generation within what volume would be necessary to raise the temperature of the liquid in the sludge to its boiling point? What mechanisms could produce a significant local concentration of heat sources? Is it credible that a waste tank heat concentration could be as large as that required to reach the dryout temperatures? This report also provides a recommendation as to whether infrared scanning of the ferrocyanide tanks is needed. From the analyses presented in this report it is evident that formation of dry, and thus chemically reactive, regions in the ferrocyanide sludge by local hotspots is not credible. This conclusion is subject to reevaluation if future analyses of tank core samples show much higher 137 Cs or 90 Sr concentrations than expected. Since hotspots of concern are not credible, infrared scanning to detect such hotspots is not required for safe storage of tank waste
Mulugeta, Lealem; Drach, Andrew; Erdemir, Ahmet; Hunt, C. A.; Horner, Marc; Ku, Joy P.; Myers Jr., Jerry G.; Vadigepalli, Rajanikanth; Lytton, William W.
Modeling and simulation in computational neuroscience is currently a research enterprise to better understand neural systems. It is not yet directly applicable to the problems of patients with brain disease. To be used for clinical applications, there must not only be considerable progress in the field but also a concerted effort to use best practices in order to demonstrate model credibility to regulatory bodies, to clinics and hospitals, to doctors, and to patients. In doing this for neuroscience, we can learn lessons from long-standing practices in other areas of simulation (aircraft, computer chips), from software engineering, and from other biomedical disciplines. In this manuscript, we introduce some basic concepts that will be important in the development of credible clinical neuroscience models: reproducibility and replicability; verification and validation; model configuration; and procedures and processes for credible mechanistic multiscale modeling. We also discuss how garnering strong community involvement can promote model credibility. Finally, in addition to direct usage with patients, we note the potential for simulation usage in the area of Simulation-Based Medical Education, an area which to date has been primarily reliant on physical models (mannequins) and scenario-based simulations rather than on numerical simulations. PMID:29713272
Liao, Hongjing; Hitchcock, John
This synthesis study examined the reported use of credibility techniques in higher education evaluation articles that use qualitative methods. The sample included 118 articles published in six leading higher education evaluation journals from 2003 to 2012. Mixed methods approaches were used to identify key credibility techniques reported across the articles, document the frequency of these techniques, and describe their use and properties. Two broad sets of techniques were of interest: primary design techniques (i.e., basic), such as sampling/participant recruitment strategies, data collection methods, analytic details, and additional qualitative credibility techniques (e.g., member checking, negative case analyses, peer debriefing). The majority of evaluation articles reported use of primary techniques although there was wide variation in the amount of supporting detail; most of the articles did not describe the use of additional credibility techniques. This suggests that editors of evaluation journals should encourage the reporting of qualitative design details and authors should develop strategies yielding fuller methodological description. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Tompkins, Kelley A; Swift, Joshua K; Rousmaniere, Tony G; Whipple, Jason L
The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between clients' etiological beliefs for depression and treatment preferences, credibility beliefs, and outcome expectations for five different depression treatments-behavioral activation, cognitive therapy, interpersonal psychotherapy, pharmacotherapy, and psychodynamic psychotherapy. Adult psychotherapy clients (N = 98) were asked to complete an online survey that included the Reasons for Depression Questionnaire, a brief description of each of the five treatment options, and credibility, expectancy, and preference questions for each option. On average, the participating clients rated pharmacotherapy as significantly less credible, having a lower likelihood of success, and being less preferred than the four types of psychotherapy. In general, interpersonal psychotherapy was also rated more negatively than the other types of psychotherapy. However, these findings depended somewhat on whether the participating client was personally experiencing depression. Credibility beliefs, outcome expectations, and preferences for pharmacotherapy were positively associated with biological beliefs for depression; however, the other hypothesized relationships between etiological beliefs and treatment attitudes were not supported. Although the study is limited based on the specific sample and treatment descriptions that were used, the results may still have implications for psychotherapy research, training, and practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
Full Text Available Due to the rapid growth of the Internet and use of e-commerce in the recent years, viral marketing has drawn the attention of manufacturing and service organizations. However, no research has been conducted to examine the impact of message appeal and message source credibility on consumers’ attitude with mediating role of intellectual involvement of consumers and their risk taking level. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of appeal and message source credibility on consumers’ attitude with mediating role of consumers’ intellectual involvement and their risk taking level. The population of this study includes consumers of mobile phones (Samsung, Sony, Nokia, LG and iPhone in the Bushehr city (Iran. As the population of the study is unlimited, 430 questionnaires were distributed using available sampling method, and 391 questionnaires were collected and analyzed. Using structural equation modeling, we analysed the data through smart PLS software. The results show that the appeal and credibility of the message source impact the consumer attitudes toward the brand. We also found that the intellectual involvement of consumers plays the mediating role in the relationship between message appeal and consumer attitudes toward brands. In the relationship between message source credibility and customer attitude towards the brand, the level of risk taking of people has no mediating role.
Ghaddar, Suad F.; Valerio, Melissa A.; Garcia, Carolyn M.; Hansen, Lucy
Background: Little research has examined adolescent health literacy and its relationship with online health information sources. The purpose of this study is to explore health literacy among a predominantly Hispanic adolescent population and to investigate whether exposure to a credible source of online health information, MedlinePlus[R], is…
DeGroot, Jocelyn M.; Young, Valerie J.; VanSlette, Sarah H.
This study investigates college student perceptions of instructor credibility based on the content of an instructor's Twitterfeed and student beliefs about Twitter as a communication tool. Quantitative and qualitative methods were utilized to explore the effects of three manipulated Twitter feeds (e.g., tweeting social topics, professional topics,…
Full Text Available Modeling and simulation in computational neuroscience is currently a research enterprise to better understand neural systems. It is not yet directly applicable to the problems of patients with brain disease. To be used for clinical applications, there must not only be considerable progress in the field but also a concerted effort to use best practices in order to demonstrate model credibility to regulatory bodies, to clinics and hospitals, to doctors, and to patients. In doing this for neuroscience, we can learn lessons from long-standing practices in other areas of simulation (aircraft, computer chips, from software engineering, and from other biomedical disciplines. In this manuscript, we introduce some basic concepts that will be important in the development of credible clinical neuroscience models: reproducibility and replicability; verification and validation; model configuration; and procedures and processes for credible mechanistic multiscale modeling. We also discuss how garnering strong community involvement can promote model credibility. Finally, in addition to direct usage with patients, we note the potential for simulation usage in the area of Simulation-Based Medical Education, an area which to date has been primarily reliant on physical models (mannequins and scenario-based simulations rather than on numerical simulations.
Courses: Public Speaking, Interpersonal Communication, Organizational Communication, Introduction to Communication Studies, Business Communication. Objectives: The goal for this activity is not only to provide students with an understanding of their initial, derived, and terminal credibility when relating a personal, edifying story but also to…
This study focuses on the extent journalists verify information provided by online sources, and tests to what extent this verification behavior can be explained by journalists' perceived credibility of online information and other factors, such as journalism education of journalists, work and
Vraga, Emily; Myers, Teresa; Kotcher, John; Beall, Lindsey; Maibach, Ed
Many scientists communicate with the public about risks associated with scientific issues, but such communication may have unintended consequences for how the public views the political orientations and the credibility of the communicating scientist. We explore this possibility using an experiment with a nationally representative sample of Americans in the fall of 2015. We find that risk communication on controversial scientific issues sometimes influences perceptions of the political orientations and credibility of the communicating scientist when the scientist addresses the risks of issues associated with conservative or liberal groups. This relationship is moderated by participant political ideology, with liberals adjusting their perceptions of the scientists' political beliefs more substantially when the scientist addressed the risks of marijuana use when compared with other issues. Conservatives' political perceptions were less impacted by the issue context of the scientific risk communication but indirectly influenced credibility perceptions. Our results support a contextual model of audience interpretation of scientific risk communication. Scientists should be cognizant that audience members may make inferences about the communicating scientist's political orientations and credibility when they engage in risk communication efforts about controversial issues.
Johnson, Jonni L; Shelley, Alexandra E
Although decisions in child sexual abuse (CSA) cases are influenced by many factors (e.g., child age, juror gender), case and trial characteristics (e.g., interview quality) can strongly influence legal outcomes. In the present study, 319 prospective jurors read about a CSA investigation in which the alleged victim was interviewed at a child advocacy center (CAC) or traditional police setting. The prospective jurors then provided legally relevant ratings (e.g., child credibility, interview quality, defendant guilt). Structural equation modeling techniques revealed that child credibility predicted greater confidence in guilt decisions and also mediated all associations with such decisions. Having fewer negative prior opinions and rating the interview as of better quality were associated with higher child credibility ratings. Mitigating factors (e.g., interview quality), as opposed to proxy indicators (e.g., participant gender), better predicted CSA case outcomes. Similar associations across groups (e.g., CAC interviews did not make child victims more or less credible) permit a tentative conclusion that CACs do not positively or negatively affect decisions made in hypothetical CSA cases. Ideas for future studies examining factors influencing decisions in CSA cases are discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Full Text Available Background - Due to the rapid growth of the Internet and use of e-commerce in recent years, viral marketing has drawn the attention of manufacturing and service organizations. However, no research has been conducted to examine the impact of message appeal and message source credibility on consumers' attitude with mediating role of intellectual involvement of consumers and their risk taking level. Purpose - The aim of this study was to examine the impact of appeal and message source credibility on consumers’ attitude with mediating role of consumers’ intellectual involvement and their risk taking level. Design/methodology/approach – The population of this study includes consumers of mobile phones (Samsung, Sony, Nokia, LG and iPhone in Bushehr city (Iran. As the population of the study is unlimited, 430 questionnaires were distributed using available sampling method, and 391 questionnaires were collected and analyzed. Using structural equation modeling, data were analyzed through smart PLS software. Findings –The results show that the appeal and credibility of the message source have impact on consumer attitudes toward the brand. It was also found that intellectual involvement of consumers plays the mediating role in the relationship between message appeal and consumer attitudes toward brand. In the relationship between message source credibility and customer attitude towards the brand, the level of risk taking of people has no mediating role. Research limitations/implications – Data collection tool was questionnaire in this study, and questionnaire has some disadvantages that can affect the results. Additionally, this study was conducted in Bushehr city (Iran. Therefore, we should be cautious in generalizing the findings. Originality/value – In this study, the effect of message appeal and message source credibility on consumer attitude to brand was examined. The risk taking level of consumer and his involvement level were considered
This thesis is a qualitative case study analysis of the whether the nuclear policies of President Obama has weakened the U.S. extended nuclear deterrence credibility on the Korean Peninsula. To answer this, the thesis employs two strategies: First, two variables are discussed; a nuclear capabilities-variable; and a nuclear policy-variable. The purpose is to assess the impact the New START treaty has on U.S. nuclear capabilities, and to assess the implications of Obama`s nuclear policy, expres...
Lim, Sook; Steffel, Nick
Introduction: This study examined whether user ratings, expert ratings and the purpose of the use of a book on a user-generated site influenced the credibility of the book. It also examined whether the effects of user ratings and expert ratings on credibility judgments of the book varied according to the purpose of information use. In addition,…
Shwom, R.; Isenhour, C.; McCright, A.; Robinson, J.; Jordan, R.
The Essential Principles of Climate Science Literacy states that a climate-literate individual can: "understand the essential principles of Earth's climate system, assess scientifically credible information about climate change, communicate about climate and climate change in a meaningful way, and make informed and responsible decisions with regard to actions that may affect climate." We argue that further integration of the social science dimensions of climate change will advance the climate literacy goals of communication and responsible actions. The underlying rationale for this argues: 1) teaching the habits of mind and scientific practices that have synergies across the social and natural sciences can strengthen students ability to understand and assess science in general and that 2) understanding the empirical research on the social, political, and economic processes (including climate science itself) that are part of the climate system is an important step for enabling effective action and communication. For example, while climate literacy has often identified the public's faulty mental models of climate processes as a partial explanation of complacency, emerging research suggests that the public's mental models of the social world are equally or more important in leading to informed and responsible climate decisions. Building student's ability to think across the social and natural sciences by understanding "how we know what we know" through the sciences and a scientific understanding of the social world allows us to achieve climate literacy goals more systematically and completely. To enable this integration we first identify the robust social science insights for the climate science literacy principles that involve social systems. We then briefly identify significant social science contributions to climate science literacy that do not clearly fit within the seven climate literacy principles but arguably could advance climate literacy goals. We conclude
Jansen, Sophia C; Haveman-Nies, Annemien; Duijzer, Geerke; Ter Beek, Josien; Hiddink, Gerrit J; Feskens, Edith J M
Although many evidence-based diabetes prevention interventions exist, they are not easily applicable in real-life settings. Moreover, there is a lack of examples which describe the adaptation process of these interventions to practice. In this paper we present an example of such an adaptation. We adapted the SLIM (Study on Lifestyle intervention and Impaired glucose tolerance Maastricht) diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting, in a joint decision making process of intervention developers and local health care professionals. We used 3 adaptation steps in accordance with current adaptation frameworks. In the first step, the elements of the SLIM intervention were identified. In the second step, these elements were judged for their applicability in a real-life setting. In the third step, adaptations were proposed and discussed for those elements which were deemed not applicable. Participants invited for this process included intervention developers and local health care professionals (n=19). In the first adaptation step, a total of 22 intervention elements were identified. In the second step, 12 of these 22 intervention elements were judged as inapplicable. In the third step, a consensus was achieved for the adaptations of all 12 elements. The adapted elements were in the following categories: target population, techniques, intensity, delivery mode, materials, organisational structure, and political and financial conditions. The adaptations either lay in changing the SLIM protocol (6 elements) or the real-life working procedures (1 element), or a combination of both (4 elements). The positive result of this study is that a consensus was achieved within a relatively short time period (nine months) between the developers of the SLIM intervention and local health care professionals on the adaptations needed to make SLIM applicable in a Dutch real-life setting. Our example shows that it is possible to combine the perspectives of scientists and
Full Text Available In this article, we focus on the potential influence of a scientist's advocacy position on the public's perceived credibility of scientists as a whole. Further, we examine how the scientist's solution position (information only, non-controversial, and controversial affects the public's perception of the scientist's motivation for sharing information about specific issues (flu, marijuana, climate change, severe weather. Finally, we assess how perceived motivations mediate the relationship between solution position and credibility. Using data from a quota sample of American adults obtained by Qualtrics (n = 2,453, we found that in some conditions advocating for a solution positively predicted credibility, while in one condition, it negatively predicted scientist credibility. We also found that the influence of solution position on perceived credibility was mediated by several motivation perceptions; most notably through perception that the scientist was motivated to: (a serve the public and (b persuade the public. Further results and implications are discussed.
The Radioactive Waste Management Advisory Committee (RWMAC) is an independent body which advises the Secretaries of State for the Environment, Scotland and Wales, on civil radioactive waste management issues. Chapter 4 of the RWMAC's Twelfth Annual Report discussed nuclear power plant decommissioning strategy. One of the RWMAC's conclusions was that the concept of financial provisioning for power station decommissioning liabilities, which might be passed on to society several generations into the future, deserved further study. A specification for such a study was duly written (Annex 2) and, following consideration of tendered responses, the Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) at Sussex University, was contracted to carry out the work. The SPRU report stands as a SPRU analysis of the subject. This separate short RWMAC report, which is being released at the same time as the SPRU report, presents the RWMAC's own commentary on the SPRU study. The RWMAC has identified five main issues which should be addressed when deciding on a nuclear plant decommissioning strategy. These are: the technical approach to decommissioning, the basis of financial provisions, treatment of risk, segregation of management of funds, and the need for a wider environmental view. (author)
Chapter 4 of the RWMAC's Twelfth Annual Report discussed nuclear power plant decommissioning strategy. One of the RWMAC's conclusions was that the concept of financial provisioning for power station decommissioning liabilities, which might be passed on to society several generations into the future, deserved further study. A specification for such a study was duly written (Annex 2) and, following consideration of tendered responses, the Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) at Sussex University, was contracted to carry out the work. The SPRU report stands as a SPRU analysis of the subject. This separate short RWMAC report, which is being released at the same time as the SPRU report, presents the RWMAC's own commentary on the SPRU study. The RWMAC has identified five main issues which should be addressed when deciding on a nuclear plant decommissioning strategy. These are: the technical approach to decommissioning, the basis of financial provisions, treatment of risk, segregation of management of funds, and the need for a wider environmental view. These issues are addressed in this RWMAC report. (author)
In this dissertation we have questioned the current research practices in psychological science and thereby contributed to the current discussion about the credibility of psychological research. We specially focused on the problems with the reporting of statistical results and showed that reporting
Rooney, Andrew A.; Cooper, Glinda S.; Jahnke, Gloria D.; Lam, Juleen; Morgan, Rebecca L.; Boyles, Abee L.; Ratcliffe, Jennifer M.; Kraft, Andrew D.; Schünemann, Holger J.; Schwingl, Pamela; Walker, Teneille D.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Lunn, Ruth M.
Environmental health hazard assessments are routinely relied upon for public health decision-making. The evidence base used in these assessments is typically developed from a collection of diverse sources of information of varying quality. It is critical that literature-based evaluations consider the credibility of individual studies used to reach conclusions through consistent, transparent and accepted methods. Systematic review procedures address study credibility by assessing internal validity or “risk of bias” — the assessment of whether the design and conduct of a study compromised the credibility of the link between exposure/intervention and outcome. This paper describes the commonalities and differences in risk-of-bias methods developed or used by five groups that conduct or provide methodological input for performing environmental health hazard assessments: the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) Working Group, the Navigation Guide, the National Toxicology Program’s (NTP) Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) and Office of the Report on Carcinogens (ORoC), and the Integrated Risk Information System of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA-IRIS). Each of these groups have been developing and applying rigorous assessment methods for integrating across a heterogeneous collection of human and animal studies to inform conclusions on potential environmental health hazards. There is substantial consistency across the groups in the consideration of risk-of-bias issues or “domains” for assessing observational human studies. There is a similar overlap in terms of domains addressed for animal studies; however, the groups differ in the relative emphasis placed on different aspects of risk of bias. Future directions for the continued harmonization and improvement of these methods are also discussed. PMID:26857180
Shafii, Milad; Rafiei, Sima; Abooee, Fatemeh; Bahrami, Mohammad Amin; Nouhi, Mojtaba; Lotfi, Farhad; Khanjankhani, Khatere
Hospitals as integrated parts of the wide-ranging health care systems have dominant focus on health care provision to meet, maintain and promote people's health needs of a community. This study aimed to assess the service quality of teaching hospitals of Yazd University of Medical Sciences using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). A literature review and a qualitative method were used to obtain experts' viewpoints about the quality dimensions of hospital services to design a questionnaire. Then, using a self-made questionnaire, perceptions of 300 patients about the quality of delivered services were gathered. Finally, FAHP was applied to weigh each quality dimension and TOPSIS method to rank hospital wards. Six dimensions including responsiveness, assurance, security, tangibles, health communication and Patient orientation were identified as affecting aspects of hospital services quality among which, security and tangibles got the highest and lowest importance respectively (0.25406, 0.06883). Findings also revealed that in hospital A, orthopedics and ophthalmology wards obtained the highest score in terms of quality while cardiology department got the lowest ranking (0.954, 0.323). In hospital B, the highest and the lowest ranking was belonged to cardiology and surgical wards (0.895, 0.00) while in hospital C, surgical units were rated higher than internal wards (0.959, 0.851). Findings emphasized that the security dimension got the lowest ranking among SERVQUAL facets in studied hospitals. This requires hospital executives to pay special attention to the issue of patients' security and plan effectively for its promotion.
Wiggins, A.; Young, A.; Brody, C.; Gerst, M.; Kenney, M. A.; Lamoureux, A.; Rice, A.; Wolfinger, F.
Boundary object theory focuses on the role of artifacts, such as indicator images, in translation and communication across the boundaries of social groups. We use this framework for understanding how data can communicate across contexts to answer the question: Can coupling climate-related indicators with data provenance support scientific innovation and science translation? To address this question we conducted a study to understand the features and capabilities necessary for indicators and data provenance for scientific uses, using the recently online-released U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) Indicators and Global Change Information System (GCIS) as linked boundary objects. We conducted semi-structured interviews with professional researchers in which we asked the researchers to explore and describe what they observed that was useful or frustrating for a subset of the USGCRP Indicators, related GCIS content, and other similar indicator and metadata websites. Participants found these sites' navigation and the labeling and description of their assets frustrating and confusing, but were able to clearly articulate the metadata and provenance information they needed to both understand and trust the indicators. In addition to identifying desired features that are likely to be specific to this audience (e.g., references or citations for indicators), scientists wanted clear, easier-to-access provenance information of the type usually recommended for documenting research data. Notably, they felt the information would be best presented in a fashion accessible to a broader audience, as those with more technical expertise should be able to infer additional contextual details given the provenance information that they had identified as key. Such results are useful for the improvement of indicator systems, such as the prototype released by USGCRP. We note in particular that the consistency of responses across the multi-disciplinary sample, which included scholars in
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to examine the Anglo-American playwright Timberlake Wertenbaker’s approach to the issues of history, nationality and identity in her play Credible Witness (2001, and to discuss the significance of these concepts in our modern world through a close analysis of the play. In Credible Witness, the playwright brings together people from diverse countries, such as Sri Lanka, Algeria, Eritrea, Somalia and Macedonia in a detention centre in London, and via the stories of these asylum seekers, and particularly through the dramatic encounter between Petra, a Macedonian woman with strong nationalistic pride, and her son Alexander, a history teacher forced to seek refuge in Britain for political reasons, Wertenbaker tries to demonstrate “what happens to people when they step outside, or are forced outside, their history, their identity” (Aston 2003, 13.
Lawrence Ian Reed
Full Text Available Many scholars turn to emotions to understand irrational behavior. We do the opposite: we turn to rationality and game theory to understand people’s emotions. We discuss a striking theory of emotions that began with the game theory of credible threats and promises, then was enriched by evolutionary biology and psychology, and now is being tested in psychological experiments. We review some of these experiments which use economic games to set up strategic situations with real payoffs. The experiments test whether a player’s emotional expressions lend credibility to promises, threats, and claims of danger or hardship. The results offer insights into the hidden strategies behind a warm smile, an angry scowl, a look of terror, and eyes of despair.
Luciano Vereda Oliveira
Full Text Available Based on market expectations reported by the Central Bank of Brazil for the SELIC interest rate, the IPCA inflation, the exchange rate (BRL/USD and the growth rate of industrial production for four different forecasting horizons, this work analyzes the term structures of disagreement in expectations regarding the future values of these variables. It also investigates the driving factors of disagreement, paying special attention to the influence of monetary authorities’ credibility. An extensive regression analysis shows that the levels of the term structures of disagreement are negatively related to the output gap (although this result is not very robust; and that the levels of the term structures of disagreement in expectations about the IPCA inflation rate and the SELIC interest rate have a strong negative relationship with central bankers’ credibility; this relationship is positive in the case of the growth rate of industrial production.
Turgut, M. H.; Adalioglu, U.; Aytekin, A.
The revision of safety analysis report of TR-2 research reactor had been initiated in 1995. The whole accident analysis and accepted scenario for maximum credible accident has been revised according to the new safety concepts and the impact to be given to the environment due to this scenario has been assessed. This paper comprises all results of these calculations. The accepted maximum credible accident scenario is the partial blockage of the whole reactor core which resulted in the release of 25% of the core inventory. The DOSER code which uses very conservative modelling of atmospheric distributions were modified for the assessment calculations. Pasquill conditions based on the local weather observations, topography, and building affects were considered. The thyroid and whole body doses for 16 sectors and up to 10 km of distance around CNAEM were obtained. Release models were puff and a prolonged one of two hours of duration. Release fractions for the active isotopes were chosen from literature which were realistic
Alvarez, Gloria, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org [Eletrobras Termonuclear S.A. (ELETRONUCLEAR), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)
In a capitalist economy the most valued assets are not money, shares or facilities, but credibility. Lack of money can ruin a company, but often it is reputation that delivers the final blow. It has become challenging to safeguard reputation in a world where Communication is increasingly connected and with such an intense and lightning fast flow of information. This is particularly true for the electricity sector - a commodity so prevalent in everyday modern life, but, whose business dealings, are hardly known by the general public. When it comes to nuclear energy, the challenge of establishing an effective Communication with transparency and credibility touches on even more complex elements. The topic of this paper is the scenario through which the Communication process, along with its characteristics and approaches, unfolds between the nuclear sector and the Brazilian media. (author)
At the request of the Secretary of Energy Advisory Board's Task Force on Civilian Radioactive Waste Management, the National Research Council sponsored a workshop on Establishing Institutional Credibility. The purpose of the workshop was to (1) identify the range of available knowledge regarding the theoretical and conceptual issues of how institutions establish their credibility and legitimacy with key constituents, and (2) to help explore and clarify fundamental concepts in management theory related to these issues. The examination was to include what is known about how organizations establish, maintain, lose, and regain public trust and confidence. There was to be no attempt to develop consensus on these issues or to suggest particular courses of action. The workshop was held on October 24-25, 1991, in Denver, Colorado
Amy E. Mark
Full Text Available The purpose of this case study is to explore how students make sense of and respond to messages about information in higher education. This study identifies the messages students in higher education receive about information gathering, conducting research, and the credibility and authority of information sources. This research revealed that students are receiving the message from faculty that format is a stand-in for credibility. Research to date focuses on how to steer students to information privileged by the academy: academic, peer reviewed articles, and books. The voice of students is often absent. This study employs the critical framework of Paulo Freire in order to give voice to student perceptions of information.
Hayes, A.; Singer, J.; Ceppos, J.
When everyone can be a publisher, what distinguishes the journalist? This article considers contemporary challenges to institutional roles in a digital media environment, then focuses on three broad journalistic normative values -- authenticity, accountability and autonomy -- that affect the credibility of both the journalist and the content he or she provides. A set of questions that can help citizens determine the trustworthiness of the information available to them also is provided.
Garcia Sandoval, Michelle Haeberli; Manon Padilla, Alejandro
Since terms like “sustainability” and “consumer consciousness” were introduced, green products began being integrated into consumers’ lifestyles. But due to the greenwashing practices that took place during the 90’s consumers refrain to buy green products because they do not trust the advertising released by marketers. The purpose of this thesis is to explore the relationship between green advertising credibility (dependent variable) and price sensitiveness, and the four proposed green market...
This article reverses the traditional notion of media (television, radio or news papers) as a unidirectional agent of communication from producer to receiver to a more appropriate paradigm inwhich information is not embedded with hierarchy. The new media perspective and the appropriation of technology (Internet) have changed the nature of information dissemination. One cannot discuss authenticity or credibility in terms of ”telling the truth or lying”. On the contrary, users today can verify ...
Takatoshi Ito; Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo
In recent years the Bank of Canada has made important changes in the way it conducts monetary policy. In particular, the bank has adopted explicit inflation targets and introduced significant changes to its operational framework designed to increase transparency and reduce market uncertainty. This paper examines the key issues associated with the recent changes in the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy framework and analyzes various indicators of central bank credibility.
Veeva Mathew; Sam Thomas; Joseph I Injodey
Brand equity has been and will be an area of interest for marketing managers. All marketing efforts are directed toward the development ofbrand equity. Therefore efforts are taken among the researchers, to understand the concept of brand equity as deep as possible.This paper attempts to understand the interrelationships among key formative indicators of brand equity, using beliefattitude- intention hierarchy of effects. The formative indicators include brand credibility, brand commitment, and...
Lawrence Ian Reed; Peter DeScioli
Many scholars turn to emotions to understand irrational behavior. We do the opposite: we turn to rationality and game theory to understand people’s emotions. We discuss a striking theory of emotions that began with the game theory of credible threats and promises, then was enriched by evolutionary biology and psychology, and now is being tested in psychological experiments. We review some of these experiments which use economic games to set up strategic situations with real payoffs. The exper...
The development of the Internet as a medium for interaction with customers has resulted in many changes regarding the promotion of organizations. Online marketing is nowadays used not only to sell a product on the market, but also requires ideas and behavioral change. Non-profit organizations active in online communication are based on the quality of their provided information. Crediblity, attractiveness and usefullness are the key elements that provide effective online social programs. This ...
Full Text Available This paper examines the reasoning mechanism behind the consumer acceptance of genetically modified foods (GMFs in China, and investigates influence of source credibility on consumer acceptance of GMFs. Based on the original Persuasion Model—which was developed by Carl Hovland, an American psychologist and pioneer in the study of communication and its effect on attitudes and beliefs—we conducted a survey using multistage sampling from 1167 urban residents, which were proportionally selected from six cities in three economic regions (south, central, and north in the Jiangsu province through face to face interviews. Mixed-process regression that could correct endogeneity and ordered probit model were used to test the impact of source credibility on consumers’ acceptance of GMFs. Our major finding was that consumer acceptance of GMFs is affected by such factors as information source credibility, general attitudes, gender, and education levels. The reliability of biotechnology research institutes, government offices devoted to management of GM organisms (GMOs, and GMO technological experts have expedited urban consumer acceptance of GM soybean oil. However, public acceptance can also decrease as faith in the environmental organization. We also found that ignorance of the endogeneity of above mentioned source significantly undervalued its effect on consumers’ acceptance. Moreover, the remaining three sources (non-GMO experts, food companies, and anonymous information found on the Internet had almost no effect on consumer acceptance. Surprisingly, the more educated people in our survey were more skeptical towards GMFs. Our results contribute to the behavioral literature on consumer attitudes toward GMFs by developing a reasoning mechanism determining consumer acceptance of GMFs. Particularly, this paper quantitatively studied the influence of different source credibility on consumer acceptance of GMFs by using mixed-process regression to
Full Text Available In certain periods, at certain places and in certain media, the reputation and credibility of the journalistic profession has suff ered for a number of reasons, including ignorance, mediocrity, dishonorable or morally questionable methods of journalists, or scandalous, fabricated or partial news stories. This is the opinion of Luka Brajnović, whose reflections in a comparative analysis with other authors comprise the ”contemplative axis” of this article. The fundamental task and goal of this article is to present and analyze Mr Brajnović’s refl ections on the possibility of saving or restoring the reputation and credibility of the journalistic profession. Journalists and the media will not be able to restore credibility as long as extravagant ideas exist about journalism as a profession that deals with ”public whispering, accusations and dissatisfaction with everything that has been established, or as a neutral profession that is ethically hybrid and indifferent towards good and evil”. Such an understanding of the journalistic profession runs against a positive image and reputation of journalism, a fi eld which is in itself worthy of respect of the entire public. In journalism, just as in other professions, unethical behavior on the part of a small number of journalists and media outlets casts a shadow on the journalistic profession as a whole, causing the reputation of the profession to become dependent upon a positive image and the reputation of those individuals working in it. As results of this article show – which for the fi rst time analytically approaches the scientific arguments and refl ections of Mr Brajnović in the Croatian public sphere – ethical and intellectual health, which can restore credibility to the journalistic profession, are the very elements rooted deep inside of it.
Full Text Available This article reverses the traditional notion of media (television, radio or news papers as a unidirectional agent of communication from producer to receiver to a more appropriate paradigm inwhich information is not embedded with hierarchy. The new media perspective and the appropriation of technology (Internet have changed the nature of information dissemination. One cannot discuss authenticity or credibility in terms of ”telling the truth or lying”. On the contrary, users today can verify information by contrasting traditional media, or by autonomous investigation on the Internet. In this manner, the obtained information is rendered semantically ambiguous. With an approach akin to cultural studies, the authority of the speakers becomes important (unlike today in mainstream television media where a speaker is hidden behind his or her program. New media provides a unique perspective in which the user is always the arbiter of informational usefulness. The crisis that is manifested in traditional media by the lack of subjectivity of the reporter becomes diametrically opposite on the Internet. The all-knowing subject vanishes and gives place to an inter-subjective exchange which deletes hierarchy and the ontology of the ”truth”. A mirror perspective becomes the dominant order, by which one becomes inter-subjective par excellence. Within the present and future of new media, credibility will not be reserved for the ideological mass producers of information, but rather the credibility of the users. By becoming media, users begin to bear the burden of subjective analysis and multivocality.
Bafokeng Bafokeng Mahao
Full Text Available The use of celebrity endorsement as an advertising strategy has been widelyembraced by numerousorganisations. Nonetheless, scholarly wisdom suggests theneed for cumulative research that seeks to identify the unique set of source factorsthat enhance the credibility of advertising communication messages delivered bycelebrities across countries.Inthis vein, the primary purpose of this research wasto apply the dimensions of thesource attributes theory (Ohanian, 1990 tounderstand the underlying factors that influence South African consumers to havepositive perceptions towards purchasingaproductthat hasbeen endorsed by alocal athlete celebrity-endorser. A quantitative research approach was applied,wherein a self-administered survey questionnaire comprising20scale items wasadapted for this research. Data were collected from a consumer sample of 456consumers based in Gauteng, South Africa. Upon applying exploratory factoranalysisand mean score rankings, source likeability, source trust, source authorityand source credibility were established as the underlying factors influencingconsumers’ credibility evaluations, in descending order of importance. Moreover,the inter-factor correlation matrix revealed positive relationships among theidentified factors. Insights gained from this study could assist practitioners todesign effectiveadvertisementstrategies that fosterpositivecredibility evaluationsthrough known product endorsers.
Full Text Available Communication is essential. Having the ability to communicate thoughts, ideas, and feelings is crucial in all environments. The education industry regards communication as a core business to transfer knowledge. This paper focuses on how two different groups of students at Sunway University, Malaysia, perceived Lecturers’ Credibility (LC in a class that enhances the Students’ Engagement (SE. A group of 50 to 60 students from the Faculty of Arts (FoA and School of Business (SoB completed measures of LC and SE using McCroskey and Teven’s (1999 Source Credibility Questionnaire (SCQ and Students Engagement Survey from Indicators of Positive Development Conference, Child Trends. The variables for LC comprise competence, character and caring (CCC, and the variables for SE consist of cognitive, behaviour and emotion (CBE. The study aims to determine if there are any differences in SE between students from FoA and SoB with their perceived LC. Hopefully, the study sheds some light on the research question: “Are there any differences among Faculty of Arts students and School of Business students in the relationship between lecturers’ credibility and students’ engagement?”
Full Text Available City branding is not only increasingly practiced in cities in established economies, but also among municipal governments in countries, until quite recently, rather closed off from the outside world. One country with a strong drive to engage in urban (redevelopment in the post-oil era through enhancing its ‘ecological modernization’ is Iran. Megacities in Iran have all begun to venture into making profiles of what they think they are or would like to be. However, some of the adopted city branding strategies lack sophistication. In this article, the authors examine what indicators can be used for evaluating the credibility of city brands and apply these to Iran’s 15 megacities. After offering brief descriptions of the generic features of each of these cities, they map their use of city brand identities and popular city labels related to ecological modernization and analyze the credibility of their city branding practices. Based on their findings, the authors distinguish five types of cities and explain what makes some types more credible in their use of brands than others. Generally speaking, compared to cities in other nations, Iranian cities pay special attention to historical, natural, cultural, and religious aspects.
David L R Maij
Full Text Available The ability to mentalize has been marked as an important cognitive mechanism enabling belief in supernatural agents. In five studies we cross-culturally investigated the relationship between mentalizing and belief in supernatural agents with large sample sizes (over 67,000 participants in total and different operationalizations of mentalizing. The relative importance of mentalizing for endorsing supernatural beliefs was directly compared with credibility enhancing displays-the extent to which people observed credible religious acts during their upbringing. We also compared autistic with neurotypical adolescents. The empathy quotient and the autism-spectrum quotient were not predictive of belief in supernatural agents in all countries (i.e., The Netherlands, Switzerland and the United States, although we did observe a curvilinear effect in the United States. We further observed a strong influence of credibility enhancing displays on belief in supernatural agents. These findings highlight the importance of cultural learning for acquiring supernatural beliefs and ask for reconsiderations of the importance of mentalizing.
Gillis, Randall L; Nilsen, Elizabeth S
Listeners are exposed to inconsistencies in communication; for example, when speakers' words (i.e. verbal) are discrepant with their demonstrated emotions (i.e. non-verbal). Such inconsistencies introduce ambiguity, which may render a speaker to be a less credible source of information. Two experiments examined whether children make credibility discriminations based on the consistency of speakers' affect cues. In Experiment 1, school-age children (7- to 8-year-olds) preferred to solicit information from consistent speakers (e.g. those who provided a negative statement with negative affect), over novel speakers, to a greater extent than they preferred to solicit information from inconsistent speakers (e.g. those who provided a negative statement with positive affect) over novel speakers. Preschoolers (4- to 5-year-olds) did not demonstrate this preference. Experiment 2 showed that school-age children's ratings of speakers were influenced by speakers' affect consistency when the attribute being judged was related to information acquisition (speakers' believability, "weird" speech), but not general characteristics (speakers' friendliness, likeability). Together, findings suggest that school-age children are sensitive to, and use, the congruency of affect cues to determine whether individuals are credible sources of information.
David P. G. van den Berg
Full Text Available Background: Despite robust empirical support for the efficacy of trauma-focused treatments, the dissemination proves difficult, especially in relation to patients with comorbid psychosis. Many therapists endorse negative beliefs about the credibility, burden, and harm of such treatment. Objective: This feasibility study explores the impact of specialized training on therapists’ beliefs about trauma-focused treatment within a randomized controlled trial. Method: Therapist-rated (n=16 credibility, expected burden, and harm expectancies of trauma-focused treatment were assessed at baseline, post-theoretical training, post-technical training, post-supervised practical training, and at 2-year follow-up. Credibility and burden beliefs of therapists concerning the treatment of every specific patient in the trial were also assessed. Results: Over time, therapist-rated credibility of trauma-focused treatment showed a significant increase, whereas therapists’ expected burden and harm expectancies decreased significantly. In treating posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD in patients with psychotic disorders (n=79, pre-treatment symptom severity was not associated with therapist-rated credibility or expected burden of that specific treatment. Treatment outcome had no influence on patient-specific credibility or burden expectancies of therapists. Conclusions: These findings support the notion that specialized training, including practical training with supervision, has long-term positive effects on therapists’ credibility, burden, and harm beliefs concerning trauma-focused treatment.
EPA is one of the world’s leading environmental and human health research organizations. Science provides the foundation for Agency policies, actions, and decisions made on behalf of the American people.
Langlais, Philip J
Despite the importance of scientific integrity to the well-being of society, recent findings suggest that training and mentoring in the responsible conduct of research are not very reliable or effective inhibitors of research misbehavior. Understanding how and why individual scientists decide to behave in ways that conform to or violate norms and standards of research is essential to the development of more effective training programs and the creation of more supportive environments. Scholars in business management, psychology, and other disciplines have identified many important factors that affect ethical behavior, including individual, contextual, and organizational factors. Surprisingly little research has been conducted to examine the role of these factors in either the development of ethical decision-making skills, or their applicability to ethical issues commonly encountered in research and other scholarly and professional activities. Interdisciplinary approaches combined with research and discipline relevant paradigms should greatly enhance understanding of the individual contextual and organizational factors involved in ethical and unethical research conduct. Such studies will inform and facilitate the development of more effective ethics education programs in the sciences and engineering professions.
Angur, M G; Nataraajan, R; Chawla, S K
Health and fitness centers are becoming increasingly aware of their importance in the realm of preventive health care. Many hospitals have begun to open and run fitness centers, a trend that seems very likely to continue. In a competitive environment, every center would desire to obtain maximum valid customer information at minimum cost, and this paper addresses this issue. The authors investigate the confluence of both appeal and researcher credibility on mail questionnaire response rates from a metropolitan membership of a large fitness center. Personal appeal with high researcher credibility was found to generate significantly higher response rate followed by the hybrid appeal with low researcher credibility.
Paul C Langley
Full Text Available A critical question, given the growing importance of more targeted therapies to support personalized and precision medicine, is the credibility of the evidence base to support formulary decisions and pricing. On the one hand, for those who subscribe to the reference case model of the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE in the UK, the decision rests upon the creation of modeled or simulated imaginary worlds and the application of threshold willingness-to-pay cost-per-QALY thresholds. On the other hand, for those who subscribe to the standards of normal science, the decision rests upon the ability to evaluate competing claims, both clinical and cost-effective, in a timeframe that is meaningful to a formulary committee. If we subscribe to the scientific method where the focus is on the discovery of new facts, untestable claims for clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness, such as created claims for lifetime cost per-quality-adjusted discounted life years (QALYs, are properly relegated to the category of pseudoscience. We have no idea, and will never know, whether the claims are right or even if they are wrong. If formulary decisions are to respect the standards of normal science then there has to be a commitment to claims evaluation. A willingness to accept new products provisionally, subject to an agreed protocol to support the evaluation of clinical and cost-effectiveness claims. This dichotomy between the standards of normal science and pseudoscience is explored in the context of published claims for cost-effectiveness and recommendations for product pricing in the US. Type: Commentary
Full Text Available The term of prohairesis was systematically entered in philosophical debates by Aristotle. This concept is generally translated as intention, will, purpose, choice, purposive choice, rational choice, and deliberative choice that the later seems to be Aristotle’s definition of prohairesis. To understand the internal structure of prohairesiss, we have to understand the conceptions of action, intention, belief, whish, will, and virtues. For Aristotle if an action will be done through a decision, this action is voluntary, but its contrary is not credible. He believes that the children and animals act voluntarily, but they have not any decision, because they have not any deliberation.
Aarts, L. Nes, N. van Wegman, F.C.M. Schagen, I.N.L.G. van & Louwerse, R.
Speed is an inherent characteristic of mobility and a hazard to safety. Several approaches exist of how to manage speed. In the Netherlands, the emphasis has mainly been on harm minimisation during the last decades, due to the implementation of the Sustainable Safety vision. Speed management remains
Runge, Michael C.; Grand, James B.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Krausman, Paul R.; Cain, James W. III
Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.
Reynolds, Barbara J
When discussing risk with people, commonly subject matter experts believe that conveying the facts will be enough to allow people to assess a risk and respond rationally to that risk. Because of this expectation, experts often become exasperated by the seemingly illogical way people assess personal risk and choose to manage that risk. In crisis situations when the risk information is less defined and choices must be made within impossible time constraints, the thought processes may be even more susceptible to faulty heuristics. Understanding the perception of risk is essential to understanding why the public becomes more or less upset by events. This article explores the psychological underpinnings of risk assessment within emotionally laden events and the risk communication practices that may facilitate subject matter experts to provide the facts in a manner so they can be more certain those facts are being heard. Source credibility is foundational to risk communication practices. The public meeting is one example in which these best practices can be exercised. Risks are risky because risk perceptions differ and the psychosocial environment in which risk is discussed complicates making risk decisions. Experts who want to influence the actions of the public related to a threat or risk should understand that decisions often involve emotional as well as logical components. The media and other social entities will also influence the risk context. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention's crisis and emergency-risk communication (CERC) principles are intended to increase credibility and recognize emotional components of an event. During a risk event, CERC works to calm emotions and increase trust which can help people apply the expertise being offered by response officials. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Reynolds, Barbara J.
When discussing risk with people, commonly subject matter experts believe that conveying the facts will be enough to allow people to assess a risk and respond rationally to that risk. Because of this expectation, experts often become exasperated by the seemingly illogical way people assess personal risk and choose to manage that risk. In crisis situations when the risk information is less defined and choices must be made within impossible time constraints, the thought processes may be even more susceptible to faulty heuristics. Understanding the perception of risk is essential to understanding why the public becomes more or less upset by events. This article explores the psychological underpinnings of risk assessment within emotionally laden events and the risk communication practices that may facilitate subject matter experts to provide the facts in a manner so they can be more certain those facts are being heard. Source credibility is foundational to risk communication practices. The public meeting is one example in which these best practices can be exercised. Risks are risky because risk perceptions differ and the psychosocial environment in which risk is discussed complicates making risk decisions. Experts who want to influence the actions of the public related to a threat or risk should understand that decisions often involve emotional as well as logical components. The media and other social entities will also influence the risk context. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention's crisis and emergency-risk communication (CERC) principles are intended to increase credibility and recognize emotional components of an event. During a risk event, CERC works to calm emotions and increase trust which can help people apply the expertise being offered by response officials.
Haanstra, T.M.; Tilbury, C.; Kamper, S.J.; Tordoir, R.L.; Vliet Vlieland, T.P.M.; Nelissen, R.G.H.H.; Cuijpers, P.; de Vet, H.C.W.; Dekker, J.; Knol, D.L.; Ostelo, R.W.J.G.
Objectives: The constructs optimism, pessimism, hope, treatment credibility and treatment expectancy are associated with outcomes of medical treatment. While these constructs are grounded in different theoretical models, they nonetheless show some conceptual overlap. The purpose of this study was to
Stocker, Thomas F.; Qin, Dahe; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Tignor, Melinda M.B.; Allen, Simon K.; Boschung, Judith; Nauels, Alexander; Xia, Yu; Bex, Vincent; Midgley, Pauline M.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Allen, Simon K.; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.; Breon, Francois-Marie; Church, John A.; Cubasch, Ulrich; Emori, Seita; Forster, Piers; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gillett, Nathan; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Hartmann, Dennis L.; Jansen, Eystein; Kirtman, Ben; Knutti, Reto; Kumar Kanikicharla, Krishna; Lemke, Peter; Marotzke, Jochem; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Meehl, Gerald A.; Mokhov, Igor I.; Piao, Shilong; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Dahe, Qin; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Randall, David; Rhein, Monika; Rojas, Maisa; Sabine, Christopher; Shindell, Drew; Stocker, Thomas F.; Talley, Lynne D.; Vaughan, David G.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Allen, Myles R.; Boucher, Olivier; Chambers, Don; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Peter U.; Collins, Matthew; Comiso, Josefino C.; Vasconcellos de Menezes, Viviane; Feely, Richard A.; Fichefet, Thierry; Fiore, Arlene M.; Flato, Gregory; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Hegerl, Gabriele; Hezel, Paul J.; Johnson, Gregory C.; Kaser, Georg; Kattsov, Vladimir; Kennedy, John; Klein Tank, Albert M.G.; Le Quere, Corinne; Myhre, Gunnar; Osborn, Timothy; Payne, Antony J.; Perlwitz, Judith; Power, Scott; Prather, Michael; Rintoul, Stephen R.; Rogelj, Joeri; Rusticucci, Matilde; Schulz, Michael; Sedlacek, Jan; Stott, Peter A.; Sutton, Rowan; Thorne, Peter W.; Wuebbles, Donald
The Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It builds upon the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 and incorporates subsequent new findings from the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, as well as from research published in the extensive scientific and technical literature. The assessment considers new evidence of past, present and projected future climate change based on many independent scientific analyses from observations of the climate system, paleo-climate archives, theoretical studies of climate processes and simulations using climate models. During the process of scoping and approving the outline of its Fifth Assessment Report, the IPCC focussed on those aspects of the current understanding of the science of climate change that were judged to be most relevant to policy-makers. In this report, Working Group I has extended coverage of future climate change compared to earlier reports by assessing near-term projections and predictability as well as long-term projections and irreversibility in two separate chapters. Following the decisions made by the Panel during the scoping and outline approval, a set of new scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways, are used across all three Working Groups for projections of climate change over the 21. century. The coverage of regional information in the Working Group I report is expanded by specifically assessing climate phenomena such as monsoon systems and their relevance to future climate change in the regions. The Working Group I Report is an assessment, not a review or a text book of climate science, and is based on the published scientific and technical literature available up to 15 March 2013. Underlying all aspects of the report is a
Companies around the world are using different strategies for their corporate social responsibility (CSR) communication, but finding an appropriate strategy to enhance trust and credibility on the consumer side remains challenging. The constitutive aspect of emotions in CSR communication has long been overlooked. Therefore, this study investigates the influence emotions in CSR communication have on the credibility and trust consumers have in a firm’s CSR. Quantitative research with group divi...
The aim of this thesis is to demonstrate that advertisements that challenge the security of consumers can undermine the impact and lasting influence of these messages. Conversely, advertisements could be used to evoke feelings of security and enhance emotional well-being whilst optimising the credibility and impact of messages. Specifically, research demonstrates that advertisements might elicit different motivational styles, referred to as an individual’s regulatory focus. The credibility of...
Bates, Benjamin R; Romina, Sharon; Ahmed, Rukhsana; Hopson, Danielle
Recent use of the Internet as a source of health information has raised concerns about consumers' ability to tell 'good' information from 'bad' information. Although consumers report that they use source credibility to judge information quality, several observational studies suggest that consumers make little use of source credibility. This study examines consumer evaluations of web pages attributed to a credible source as compared to generic web pages on measures of message quality. In spring 2005, a community-wide convenience survey was distributed in a regional hub city in Ohio, USA. 519 participants were randomly assigned one of six messages discussing lung cancer prevention: three messages each attributed to a highly credible national organization and three identical messages each attributed to a generic web page. Independent sample t-tests were conducted to compare each attributed message to its counterpart attributed to a generic web page on measures of trustworthiness, truthfulness, readability, and completeness. The results demonstrated that differences in attribution to a source did not have a significant effect on consumers' evaluations of the quality of the information.Conclusions. The authors offer suggestions for national organizations to promote credibility to consumers as a heuristic for choosing better online health information through the use of media co-channels to emphasize credibility.
Full Text Available Health information is a frequent subject for online information seeking. Research on the phenomenon has to a certain extent included students. This review, based on an analysis of 61 articles, shows the current state of the art of research on students’ trust in online health information. The review covers methodological approaches and findings of previous previous empirical studies: research design; trustworthy health information sources; credibility assessment; and factors impacting on trust formation. The analysis of research designs reveals that the survey method was most frequent, but small qualitative studies were also occurring. More than half of the studies were administered in the USA, while only a smaller part concerned ‘non-Western’ countries. Female subjects were more frequent than male.The concept of trust was not always explicitly defined in the studies. The students' actual propensity to use internet was generally taken as an expression of trust. The antecedents of trust identified in the studies can be summarized as the perceived quality of the information, the perceived credibility of the source or source provider, the users’ general inclination to trust, the actual use of information, and the perceived intelligibility of the information. The findings show that Internet was among the main sources for health information, but parents or other family members, friends, schools, health professionals were also frequent sources of health information, and students were not immediately accepting online information as trustworthy. The students’ trust and credibility judgments were influenced by social and demographic, cultural, psychological, knowledge and skills-related, and source, system and content-related factors. Governmental and organizational websites were reported as the most trustful sources, although some issues regarding website features and presentation of content were reported as barriers. Easy access were of
Idris, N H; Jackson, M J; Ishak, M H I
The use of Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) in collecting, sharing and disseminating geospatially referenced information on the Web is increasingly common. The potentials of this localized and collective information have been seen to complement the maintenance process of authoritative mapping data sources and in realizing the development of Digital Earth. The main barrier to the use of this data in supporting this bottom up approach is the credibility (trust), completeness, accuracy, and quality of both the data input and outputs generated. The only feasible approach to assess these data is by relying on an automated process. This paper describes a conceptual model of indicators (parameters) and practical approaches to automated assess the credibility of information contributed through the VGI including map mashups, Geo Web and crowd – sourced based applications. There are two main components proposed to be assessed in the conceptual model – metadata and data. The metadata component comprises the indicator of the hosting (websites) and the sources of data / information. The data component comprises the indicators to assess absolute and relative data positioning, attribute, thematic, temporal and geometric correctness and consistency. This paper suggests approaches to assess the components. To assess the metadata component, automated text categorization using supervised machine learning is proposed. To assess the correctness and consistency in the data component, we suggest a matching validation approach using the current emerging technologies from Linked Data infrastructures and using third party reviews validation. This study contributes to the research domain that focuses on the credibility, trust and quality issues of data contributed by web citizen providers
Pier Luigi Baldi
Full Text Available This article points out some conditions which significantly exert an influence upon decision and compares decision making and problem solving as interconnected processes. Some strategies of decision making are also examined.
Full Text Available The purpose of this article is twofold. The first is to explain the time inconsistencies of the convertibility regime that led to the 2001 crisis. The argument suggests that the credibility requirements for convertibility induced a dynamic of legal, fiscal, financial and external commitments that increased exit costs and time inconsistencies. The second objective is to explain the tensions of the floating regime that replaced convertibility in 2002. We describe the effects of a floating exchange rate on macroeconomic imbalance and the growing tension between competitiveness and inflation.
Łuczaj Łukasz J
Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper is an attempt to estimate the percentage of erroneously identified taxa in ethnographic studies concerning the use of plants and to propose a code for recording credibility of identification in historical ethnobotany publications. Methods A sample of Polish-language ethnobotanical literature (45 published sources from 1874-2005 and four collections of voucher specimens (from 1894-1975 were analyzed. Errors were detected in the publications by comparing the data with existing knowledge on the distribution of plant names and species ranges. The voucher specimens were re-examined. A one-letter code was invented for quick identification of the credibility of data published in lists of species compiled from historical or ethnographic sources, according to the source of identification: voucher specimen, Latin binominal, botanical expert, obvious widespread name, folk name, mode of use, range, physical description or photograph. To test the use of the code an up-to-date list of wild food plants used in Poland was made. Results A significant difference between the ratio of mistakes in the voucher specimen collections and the ratio of detectable mistakes in the studies without herbarium documentation was found. At least 2.3% of taxa in the publications were identified erroneously (mean rate was 6.2% per publication, and in half of these mistakes even the genus was not correct. As many as 10.0% of voucher specimens (on average 9.2% per collection were originally erroneously identified, but three quarters of the identification mistakes remained within-genus. The species of the genera Thymus, Rumex and Rubus were most often confused within the genus. Not all of the invented credibility codes were used in the list of wild food plants, but they may be useful for other researchers. The most often used codes were the ones signifying identification by: voucher specimen, botanical expert and by a common name used throughout the
Nowak, Kristine; McGloin, Rory
Electronic Word of Mouth (eWOM) is information shared on the Internet about a product, which allows people to receive information from others they may not otherwise encounter. Online product reviews are a type of eWOM where a user posts a comment about a product and selects an image to represent the self. The perception of the image and the text in the product review can influence source credibility and the perception of the product, as well as the likelihood that someone will purchase the pr...
Blinkov, V.N.; Melikhov, O.I.; Melikhov, V.I.; Davydov, M.V.; Sokolin, A.V.; Shchepetil'nikov, Eh.Yu.
The calculations of thermohydraulic processes through the ATHLET code for determining optimal conditions for modeling the coolant leakage at the EhNITs stand by the maximum credible accident at the NPP with WWER-440/213 reactor are presented. The diameters of the nozzle at the stand, whereby the local criterion of coincidence with the data on the NPP (by the maximum flow) and integral criterion of coincidence (by the mass and energy of the coolant, effluent during 10 s) are determined in the process of parametric calculations [ru
Łuczaj, Łukasz J
This paper is an attempt to estimate the percentage of erroneously identified taxa in ethnographic studies concerning the use of plants and to propose a code for recording credibility of identification in historical ethnobotany publications. A sample of Polish-language ethnobotanical literature (45 published sources from 1874-2005) and four collections of voucher specimens (from 1894-1975) were analyzed. Errors were detected in the publications by comparing the data with existing knowledge on the distribution of plant names and species ranges. The voucher specimens were re-examined.A one-letter code was invented for quick identification of the credibility of data published in lists of species compiled from historical or ethnographic sources, according to the source of identification: voucher specimen, Latin binominal, botanical expert, obvious widespread name, folk name, mode of use, range, physical description or photograph. To test the use of the code an up-to-date list of wild food plants used in Poland was made. A significant difference between the ratio of mistakes in the voucher specimen collections and the ratio of detectable mistakes in the studies without herbarium documentation was found. At least 2.3% of taxa in the publications were identified erroneously (mean rate was 6.2% per publication), and in half of these mistakes even the genus was not correct. As many as 10.0% of voucher specimens (on average 9.2% per collection) were originally erroneously identified, but three quarters of the identification mistakes remained within-genus.The species of the genera Thymus, Rumex and Rubus were most often confused within the genus.Not all of the invented credibility codes were used in the list of wild food plants, but they may be useful for other researchers. The most often used codes were the ones signifying identification by: voucher specimen, botanical expert and by a common name used throughout the country. The results of this study support the rigorous use
Cooper, Alexia; Quas, Jodi A; Cleveland, Kyndra C
Despite wide variations in child witness behavior while on the stand, little research has focused on how that behavior influences jurors' perceptions of the child's credibility or the case itself. In the current study, the impact of a child's emotional displays on credibility judgments and verdict preferences was examined in jury-eligible college students and jurors released from jury duty. No significant differences emerged in perceptions or verdicts based on whether a child was shown as crying or not while participants read a transcript of the child's testimony. However, participants who rated the child as more emotional (regardless of whether the image showed a crying child) were more likely to render guilty verdicts, were more certain of guilt, and found the child more credible and the defendant less credible than participants who rated the child as less emotional. Also, when the child was perceived as low in emotion, older children were rated as less credible than younger children. The results have implications for understanding how children's emotional displays and jurors' perceptions of children's emotionality influence decisions in sexual abuse cases. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet
Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.