Achieving conservation science that bridges the knowledge-action boundary.

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, Carly N; Mascia, Michael B; Schwartz, Mark W; Possingham, Hugh P; Fuller, Richard A

2013-08-01

There are many barriers to using science to inform conservation policy and practice. Conservation scientists wishing to produce management-relevant science must balance this goal with the imperative of demonstrating novelty and rigor in their science. Decision makers seeking to make evidence-based decisions must balance a desire for knowledge with the need to act despite uncertainty. Generating science that will effectively inform management decisions requires that the production of information (the components of knowledge) be salient (relevant and timely), credible (authoritative, believable, and trusted), and legitimate (developed via a process that considers the values and perspectives of all relevant actors) in the eyes of both researchers and decision makers. We perceive 3 key challenges for those hoping to generate conservation science that achieves all 3 of these information characteristics. First, scientific and management audiences can have contrasting perceptions about the salience of research. Second, the pursuit of scientific credibility can come at the cost of salience and legitimacy in the eyes of decision makers, and, third, different actors can have conflicting views about what constitutes legitimate information. We highlight 4 institutional frameworks that can facilitate science that will inform management: boundary organizations (environmental organizations that span the boundary between science and management), research scientists embedded in resource management agencies, formal links between decision makers and scientists at research-focused institutions, and training programs for conservation professionals. Although these are not the only approaches to generating boundary-spanning science, nor are they mutually exclusive, they provide mechanisms for promoting communication, translation, and mediation across the knowledge-action boundary. We believe that despite the challenges, conservation science should strive to be a boundary science, which

Extension and Application of Credibility Models in Predicting Claim Frequency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuan-tao Xie

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In nonlife actuarial science, credibility models are one of the main methods of experience ratemaking. Bühlmann-Straub credibility model can be expressed as a special case of linear mixed models (LMMs with the underlying assumption of normality. In this paper, we extend the assumption of Bühlmann-Straub model to include Poisson and negative binomial distributions as they are more appropriate for describing the distribution of a number of claims. By using the framework of generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs, we obtain the generalized credibility premiums that contain as particular cases another credibility premium in the literature. Compared to generalized linear mixed models, our extended credibility models also have an advantage in that the credibility factor falls into the range from 0 to 1. The performance of our models in comparison with an existing model in the literature is also evaluated through numerical studies, which shows that our approach produces premium estimates close to the optima. In addition, our proposed model can also be applied to the most commonly used ratemaking approach, namely, the net, the optimal Bonus-Malus system.

Credible baseline analysis for multi-model public policy studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parikh, S.C.; Gass, S.I.

1981-01-01

The nature of public decision-making and resource allocation is such that many complex interactions can best be examined and understood by quantitative analysis. Most organizations do not possess the totality of models and needed analytical skills to perform detailed and systematic quantitative analysis. Hence, the need for coordinated, multi-organization studies that support public decision-making has grown in recent years. This trend is expected not only to continue, but to increase. This paper describes the authors' views on the process of multi-model analysis based on their participation in an analytical exercise, the ORNL/MITRE Study. One of the authors was the exercise coordinator. During the study, the authors were concerned with the issue of measuring and conveying credibility of the analysis. This work led them to identify several key determinants, described in this paper, that could be used to develop a rating of credibility.

Cultural Variation in Situation Assessment: Influence of Source Credibility and Rank Status

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Heacox, N

2000-01-01

.... Although information content, rank status, and source credibility have received much attention by researchers in command and control decision-making, cultural variations in these factors have seldom been studied...

Vote Buying or Campaign Promises? Electoral Strategies When Party Credibility is Limited

OpenAIRE

Hanusch, Marek; Keefer, Philip; Vlaicu, Razvan

2016-01-01

What explains significant variation across countries in the use of vote buying instead of campaign promises to secure voter support? This paper explicitly models the tradeoff parties face between engaging in vote buying and making campaign promises, and explores the distributional consequences of this decision, in a setting where party credibility can vary. When parties are less credible they spend more on vote buying and target vote buying more heavily toward groups that do not believe campa...

Making graduate research in science education more scientific

Science.gov (United States)

Firman, Harry

2016-02-01

It is expected that research conducted by graduate students in science education provide research findings which can be utilized as evidence based foundations for making decisions to improve science education practices in schools. However, lack of credibility of research become one of the factors cause idleness of thesis and dissertation in the context of education improvement. Credibility of a research is constructed by its scientificness. As a result, enhancement of scientific characters of graduate research needs to be done to close the gap between research and practice. A number of guiding principles underlie educational researchs as a scientific inquiry are explored and applied in this paper to identify common shortages of some thesis and dissertation manuscripts on science education reviewed in last two years.

Credibility engineering in the food industry: linking science, regulation, and marketing in a corporate context.

Science.gov (United States)

Penders, Bart; Nelis, Annemiek P

2011-12-01

We expand upon the notion of the "credibility cycle" through a study of credibility engineering by the food industry. Research and development (R&D) as well as marketing contribute to the credibility of the food company Unilever and its claims. Innovation encompasses the development, marketing, and sales of products. These are directed towards three distinct audiences: scientific peers, regulators, and consumers. R&D uses scientific articles to create credit for itself amongst peers and regulators. These articles are used to support health claims on products. However, R&D, regulation, and marketing are not separate realms. A single strategy of credibility engineering connects health claims to a specific public through linking that public to a health issue and a food product.

Truth and Credibility in Sincere Policy Analysis: Alternative Approaches for the Production of Policy-Relevant Knowledge.

Science.gov (United States)

Bozeman, Barry; Landsbergen, David

1989-01-01

Two competing approaches to policy analysis are distinguished: a credibility approach, and a truth approach. According to the credibility approach, the policy analyst's role is to search for plausible argument rather than truth. Each approach has pragmatic tradeoffs in fulfilling the goal of providing usable knowledge to decision makers. (TJH)

Simulating Terrorism: Credible Commitment, Costly Signaling, and Strategic Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Siegel, David A.; Young, Joseph K.

2009-01-01

We present two simulations designed to convey the strategic nature of terrorism and counterterrorism. The first is a simulated hostage crisis, designed primarily to illustrate the concepts of credible commitment and costly signaling. The second explores high-level decision making of both a terrorist group and the state, and is designed to…

Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science.

Science.gov (United States)

Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina M; Blake, Ann; Carroll, William F; Corbett, Charles J; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Lempert, Robert J; Linkov, Igor; McFadden, Roger; Moran, Kelly D; Olivetti, Elsa; Ostrom, Nancy K; Romero, Michelle; Schoenung, Julie M; Seager, Thomas P; Sinsheimer, Peter; Thayer, Kristina A

2017-06-13

Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals. We assessed whether decision science may assist the alternatives analysis decision maker in comparing alternatives across a range of metrics. A workshop was convened that included representatives from government, academia, business, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and were prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect on other groups' findings. We concluded that the further incorporation of decision science into alternatives analysis would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients and would also advance the science of decision analysis. We advance four recommendations: a ) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; b ) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; c ) supporting transdisciplinary research; and d ) supporting education and outreach efforts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP483.

The role of citizen public-interest groups in the decision-making process of a science-intensive culture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinclair, M.P.

1991-01-01

This study explores how concerns about the environment have escalated in the past three decades from being peripheral to that of a mainstream social movement. Most environmental concerns stem from the deployment of technologies where technical expertise is essential to effective participation in the decision-making process. The manner in which the current policy for the disposal of low-level radioactive waste was devised and passed by Congress provides the information base through which the role of citizen groups in the decision-making process in a science-intensive culture is explored, as they seek to overcome the adverse environmental impacts and economic inequities of this Act. The actual process by which citizens have confronted this current flawed policy is described, which includes how technical expertise from various sources made the citizens' case credible and effective. Several existing and theoretical models of citizen participation are described. Recommendations and conclusions are presented briefly, and a recommended model based on the concept of sustainable development is proposed

Instructional decision making of high school science teachers

Science.gov (United States)

Carver, Jeffrey S.

The instructional decision-making processes of high school science teachers have not been well established in the literature. Several models for decision-making do exist in other teaching disciplines, business, computer game programming, nursing, and some fields of science. A model that incorporates differences in science teaching that is consistent with constructivist theory as opposed to conventional science teaching is useful in the current climate of standards-based instruction that includes an inquiry-based approach to teaching science. This study focuses on three aspects of the decision-making process. First, it defines what factors, both internal and external, influence high school science teacher decision-making. Second, those factors are analyzed further to determine what instructional decision-making processes are articulated or demonstrated by the participants. Third, by analyzing the types of decisions that are made in the classroom, the classroom learning environments established as a result of those instructional decisions are studied for similarities and differences between conventional and constructivist models. While the decision-making process for each of these teachers was not clearly articulated by the teachers themselves, the patterns that establish the process were clearly exhibited by the teachers. It was also clear that the classroom learning environments that were established were, at least in part, established as a result of the instructional decisions that were made in planning and implementation of instruction. Patterns of instructional decision-making were different for each teacher as a result of primary instructional goals that were different for each teacher. There were similarities between teachers who exhibited more constructivist epistemological tendencies as well as similarities between teachers who exhibited a more conventional epistemology. While the decisions that will result from these two camps may be different, the six step

Decision science a human-oriented perspective

CERN Document Server

Mengov, George

2015-01-01

This book offers a new perspective on human decision-making by comparing the established methods in decision science with innovative modelling at the level of neurons and neural interactions. The book presents a new generation of computer models, which can predict with astonishing accuracy individual economic choices when people make them by quick intuition rather than by effort. A vision for a new kind of social science is outlined, whereby neural models of emotion and cognition capture the dynamics of socioeconomic systems and virtual social networks. The exposition is approachable by experts as well as by advanced students. The author is an Associate Professor of Decision Science with a doctorate in Computational Neuroscience, and a former software consultant to banks in the City of London.  .

Comparison of credible patients of very low intelligence and non-credible patients on neurocognitive performance validity indicators.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Klayton; Boone, Kyle; Victor, Tara; Miora, Deborah; Cottingham, Maria; Ziegler, Elizabeth; Zeller, Michelle; Wright, Matthew

2014-01-01

The purpose of this archival study was to identify performance validity tests (PVTs) and standard IQ and neurocognitive test scores, which singly or in combination, differentiate credible patients of low IQ (FSIQ ≤ 75; n = 55) from non-credible patients. We compared the credible participants against a sample of 74 non-credible patients who appeared to have been attempting to feign low intelligence specifically (FSIQ ≤ 75), as well as a larger non-credible sample (n = 383) unselected for IQ. The entire non-credible group scored significantly higher than the credible participants on measures of verbal crystallized intelligence/semantic memory and manipulation of overlearned information, while the credible group performed significantly better on many processing speed and memory tests. Additionally, credible women showed faster finger-tapping speeds than non-credible women. The credible group also scored significantly higher than the non-credible subgroup with low IQ scores on measures of attention, visual perceptual/spatial tasks, processing speed, verbal learning/list learning, and visual memory, and credible women continued to outperform non-credible women on finger tapping. When cut-offs were selected to maintain approximately 90% specificity in the credible group, sensitivity rates were highest for verbal and visual memory measures (i.e., TOMM trials 1 and 2; Warrington Words correct and time; Rey Word Recognition Test total; RAVLT Effort Equation, Trial 5, total across learning trials, short delay, recognition, and RAVLT/RO discriminant function; and Digit Symbol recognition), followed by select attentional PVT scores (i.e., b Test omissions and time to recite four digits forward). When failure rates were tabulated across seven most sensitive scores, a cut-off of ≥ 2 failures was associated with 85.4% specificity and 85.7% sensitivity, while a cut-off of ≥ 3 failures resulted in 95.1% specificity and 66.0% sensitivity. Results are discussed in light of

The Credibility of Policy Reporting Across Learning Disciplines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carley, S.; Youtie, J.; Solomon, G.; Porter, A.

2016-07-01

The notion of a credibility map argues that everyone has a distinctive map that dictates the preference given to different types and sources of information. When seeking to influence other academic fields, scholars will likely turn to scientific and technical information though other types, such as policy reports, may also be relevant. We draw on the credibility mapping concept to understand how a major policy report is taken up by the target academic community. The report, How People Learn, was published by the US National Academies in 2000, to expose the education community (mainly educational researchers but also knowledge-seeking practitioners) to major cognitive science research findings of relevance to learning. We applied several search strings to measure the take up of this report in the target community. We used Google Scholar to evince that that How People Learn was cited in nearly 15,000 publications, these citations grew particularly steeply from 2000 to 2008, and most were in education-related journal papers. We performed a similar analysis using the Web of Science, which showed that most of the citations were substantial as opposed to perfunctory. (Author)

Measuring Credibility Perceptions in CSR Communication: A Scale Development to Test Readers’ Perceived Credibility of CSR Reports

Science.gov (United States)

Lock, Irina; Seele, Peter

2017-01-01

Credibility is central to communication but often jeopardized by “credibility gaps.” This is especially true for communication about corporate social responsibility (CSR). To date, no tool has been available to analyze stakeholders’ credibility perceptions of CSR communication. This article presents a series of studies conducted to develop a scale to assess the perceived credibility of CSR reports, one of CSR communication’s most important tools. The scale provides a novel operationalization of credibility using validity claims of Habermas’s ideal speech situation as subdimensions. The scale development process, carried out in five studies including a literature review, a Delphi study, and three validation studies applying confirmatory factor analysis, resulted in the 16-item Perceived Credibility (PERCRED) scale. The scale shows convergent, discriminant, concurrent, and nomological validity and is the first validated measure for analyzing credibility perceptions of CSR reports. PMID:29278260

Measuring Credibility Perceptions in CSR Communication: A Scale Development to Test Readers' Perceived Credibility of CSR Reports.

Science.gov (United States)

Lock, Irina; Seele, Peter

2017-11-01

Credibility is central to communication but often jeopardized by "credibility gaps." This is especially true for communication about corporate social responsibility (CSR). To date, no tool has been available to analyze stakeholders' credibility perceptions of CSR communication. This article presents a series of studies conducted to develop a scale to assess the perceived credibility of CSR reports, one of CSR communication's most important tools. The scale provides a novel operationalization of credibility using validity claims of Habermas's ideal speech situation as subdimensions. The scale development process, carried out in five studies including a literature review, a Delphi study, and three validation studies applying confirmatory factor analysis, resulted in the 16-item Perceived Credibility (PERCRED) scale. The scale shows convergent, discriminant, concurrent, and nomological validity and is the first validated measure for analyzing credibility perceptions of CSR reports.

The Wipp Disposal Decision Plan: the Successful Road Map for Transparent and Credible Decision-Making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eriksson, Leif G.

2001-01-01

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) deep geological repository for long-lived, transuranic radioactive waste (TRUW) opened on the 26th of March 1999. Beginning on the 4th of April 1994, the United States Department of Energy (DOE), implemented the WIPP Disposal Decision Plan (DDP), which embodied the five-year vision and intents of the then DOE Manager of the Carlsbad Area Office (CAO), presently the Carlsbad Field Office (CBFO). The successful design and implementation of the DDP ensured good science, enhanced regulator and stake holder (affected and interested parties) interactions and acceptance of programmatic decisions, which resulted in the certification of the WIPP TRUW repository by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on the 18th of May 1998, almost three years earlier than projected in November 1993. The present paper contains three sections: A concise background information on the CBFO's TRUW disposal program, incl. the legal framework, current status, and author-envisioned challenges and solutions; A description of the main components and attributes of the WIPP DDP. A summary of the lessons learned during and after the 1994 through 1998 implementation of the WIPP DDP

The Wipp Disposal Decision Plan: the Successful Road Map for Transparent and Credible Decision-Making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eriksson, Leif G. [GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2001-07-01

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) deep geological repository for long-lived, transuranic radioactive waste (TRUW) opened on the 26th of March 1999. Beginning on the 4th of April 1994, the United States Department of Energy (DOE), implemented the WIPP Disposal Decision Plan (DDP), which embodied the five-year vision and intents of the then DOE Manager of the Carlsbad Area Office (CAO), presently the Carlsbad Field Office (CBFO). The successful design and implementation of the DDP ensured good science, enhanced regulator and stake holder (affected and interested parties) interactions and acceptance of programmatic decisions, which resulted in the certification of the WIPP TRUW repository by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on the 18th of May 1998, almost three years earlier than projected in November 1993. The present paper contains three sections: A concise background information on the CBFO's TRUW disposal program, incl. the legal framework, current status, and author-envisioned challenges and solutions; A description of the main components and attributes of the WIPP DDP. A summary of the lessons learned during and after the 1994 through 1998 implementation of the WIPP DDP.

Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Woodhouse, C. A.; Crimmins, M.; Ferguson, D. B.; Garfin, G. M.; Scott, C. A.

2011-12-01

As society is confronted with population growth, limited resources, and the impacts of climate variability and change, it is vital that institutions of higher education promote the development of professionals who can work with decision-makers to incorporate scientific information into environmental planning and management. Skills for the communication of science are essential, but equally important is the ability to understand decision-making contexts and engage with resource managers and policy makers. It is increasingly being recognized that people who understand the linkages between science and decision making are crucial if science is to better support planning and policy. A new graduate-level seminar, "Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making," is a core course for a new post-baccalaureate certificate program, Connecting Environmental Science and Decision Making at the University of Arizona. The goal of the course is to provide students with a basic understanding of the dynamics between scientists and decision makers that result in scientific information being incorporated into environmental planning, policy, and management decisions. Through readings from the environmental and social sciences, policy, and planning literature, the course explores concepts including scientific information supply and demand, boundary organizations, co-production of knowledge, platforms for engagement, and knowledge networks. Visiting speakers help students understand some of the challenges of incorporating scientific information into planning and decision making within institutional and political contexts. The course also includes practical aspects of two-way communication via written, oral, and graphical presentations as well as through the interview process to facilitate the transfer of scientific information to decision makers as well as to broader audiences. We aspire to help students develop techniques that improve communication and

A decision science approach for integrating social science in climate and energy solutions

Science.gov (United States)

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Krishnamurti, Tamar; Davis, Alex; Schwartz, Daniel; Fischhoff, Baruch

2016-06-01

The social and behavioural sciences are critical for informing climate- and energy-related policies. We describe a decision science approach to applying those sciences. It has three stages: formal analysis of decisions, characterizing how well-informed actors should view them; descriptive research, examining how people actually behave in such circumstances; and interventions, informed by formal analysis and descriptive research, designed to create attractive options and help decision-makers choose among them. Each stage requires collaboration with technical experts (for example, climate scientists, geologists, power systems engineers and regulatory analysts), as well as continuing engagement with decision-makers. We illustrate the approach with examples from our own research in three domains related to mitigating climate change or adapting to its effects: preparing for sea-level rise, adopting smart grid technologies in homes, and investing in energy efficiency for office buildings. The decision science approach can facilitate creating climate- and energy-related policies that are behaviourally informed, realistic and respectful of the people whom they seek to aid.

Science-based natural resource management decisions: what are they?

Science.gov (United States)

T.J. Mills; T.M. Quigley; F.J. Everest

2001-01-01

While many people interested in natural resources management propose science-based decisions, it is not clear what “science-based” means. Science-based decisions are those that result from the full and complete consideration of the relevant science information. We offer five guidelines to focus the scientist’s contributions to science-based decisionmaking and use the...

Preserving professional credibility: grounded theory study of medical trainees' requests for clinical support.

Science.gov (United States)

Kennedy, Tara J T; Regehr, Glenn; Baker, G Ross; Lingard, Lorelei

2009-02-09

To develop a conceptual framework of the influences on medical trainees' decisions regarding requests for clinical support from a supervisor. Phase 1: members of teaching teams in internal and emergency medicine were observed during regular clinical activities (216 hours) and subsequently completed brief interviews. Phase 2: 36 in depth interviews were conducted using videotaped vignettes to probe tacit influences on decisions to request support. Data collection and analysis used grounded theory methods. Three teaching hospitals in an urban setting in Canada. 124 members of teaching teams on general internal medicine wards and in the emergency department, comprising 31 attending physicians, 57 junior and senior residents, 28 medical students, and eight nurses. Purposeful sampling to saturation was conducted. Trainees' decisions about whether or not to seek clinical support were influenced by three issues: the clinical question (clinical importance, scope of practice), supervisor factors (availability, approachability), and trainee factors (skill, desire for independence, evaluation). Trainees perceived that requesting frequent/inappropriate support threatened their credibility and used rhetorical strategies to preserve credibility. These strategies included building a case for the importance of requests, saving requests for opportune moments, making a plan before requesting support, and targeting requests to specific team members. Trainees consider not only clinical implications but also professional credibility when requesting support from clinical supervisors. Exposing the complexity of this process provides the opportunity to make changes to training programmes to promote timely supervision and provides a framework for further exploration of the impact of clinical training on quality of care of patients.

Credibility enacted : Understanding the meaning of credible political leadership in the Dutch parliamentary election campaign of 2010

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Zuydam, Sabine; Hendriks, Frank

2018-01-01

In times of perception politics, the credibility of electoral candidates is a crucial asset in political marketing. This raises the question to which political leaders citizens attribute credibility and how political credibility is gained and lost through media performance. We analyze and compare

Credibility enacted : Understanding the meaning of credible political leadership in the Dutch parliamentary election campaign of 2010

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Zuydam, Sabine; Hendriks, Frank

2015-01-01

In times of perception politics, the credibility of electoral candidates is a crucial asset in political marketing. This raises the question to which political leaders citizens attribute credibility and how political credibility is gained and lost through media performance. We analyze and compare

Can Simulation Credibility Be Improved Using Sensitivity Analysis to Understand Input Data Effects on Model Outcome?

Science.gov (United States)

Myers, Jerry G.; Young, M.; Goodenow, Debra A.; Keenan, A.; Walton, M.; Boley, L.

2015-01-01

Model and simulation (MS) credibility is defined as, the quality to elicit belief or trust in MS results. NASA-STD-7009 [1] delineates eight components (Verification, Validation, Input Pedigree, Results Uncertainty, Results Robustness, Use History, MS Management, People Qualifications) that address quantifying model credibility, and provides guidance to the model developers, analysts, and end users for assessing the MS credibility. Of the eight characteristics, input pedigree, or the quality of the data used to develop model input parameters, governing functions, or initial conditions, can vary significantly. These data quality differences have varying consequences across the range of MS application. NASA-STD-7009 requires that the lowest input data quality be used to represent the entire set of input data when scoring the input pedigree credibility of the model. This requirement provides a conservative assessment of model inputs, and maximizes the communication of the potential level of risk of using model outputs. Unfortunately, in practice, this may result in overly pessimistic communication of the MS output, undermining the credibility of simulation predictions to decision makers. This presentation proposes an alternative assessment mechanism, utilizing results parameter robustness, also known as model input sensitivity, to improve the credibility scoring process for specific simulations.

A generalized fuzzy credibility-constrained linear fractional programming approach for optimal irrigation water allocation under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Chenglong; Guo, Ping

2017-10-01

The vague and fuzzy parametric information is a challenging issue in irrigation water management problems. In response to this problem, a generalized fuzzy credibility-constrained linear fractional programming (GFCCFP) model is developed for optimal irrigation water allocation under uncertainty. The model can be derived from integrating generalized fuzzy credibility-constrained programming (GFCCP) into a linear fractional programming (LFP) optimization framework. Therefore, it can solve ratio optimization problems associated with fuzzy parameters, and examine the variation of results under different credibility levels and weight coefficients of possibility and necessary. It has advantages in: (1) balancing the economic and resources objectives directly; (2) analyzing system efficiency; (3) generating more flexible decision solutions by giving different credibility levels and weight coefficients of possibility and (4) supporting in-depth analysis of the interrelationships among system efficiency, credibility level and weight coefficient. The model is applied to a case study of irrigation water allocation in the middle reaches of Heihe River Basin, northwest China. Therefore, optimal irrigation water allocation solutions from the GFCCFP model can be obtained. Moreover, factorial analysis on the two parameters (i.e. λ and γ) indicates that the weight coefficient is a main factor compared with credibility level for system efficiency. These results can be effective for support reasonable irrigation water resources management and agricultural production.

Credibility Discourse of PR Agencies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Isaksson, Maria; Jørgensen, Poul Erik Flyvholm

2008-01-01

to giving assurance of their expertise, trustworthiness and empathy, thus confirming our overall expectation that corporate credibility discourse is relatively uniform from a European perspective. However, contrary to our assumptions, the results of our study show that PR credibility discourse demonstrates...

Lessons from NASA Applied Sciences Program: Success Factors in Applying Earth Science in Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Friedl, L. A.; Cox, L.

2008-12-01

The NASA Applied Sciences Program collaborates with organizations to discover and demonstrate applications of NASA Earth science research and technology to decision making. The desired outcome is for public and private organizations to use NASA Earth science products in innovative applications for sustained, operational uses to enhance their decisions. In addition, the program facilitates the end-user feedback to Earth science to improve products and demands for research. The Program thus serves as a bridge between Earth science research and technology and the applied organizations and end-users with management, policy, and business responsibilities. Since 2002, the Applied Sciences Program has sponsored over 115 applications-oriented projects to apply Earth observations and model products to decision making activities. Projects have spanned numerous topics - agriculture, air quality, water resources, disasters, public health, aviation, etc. The projects have involved government agencies, private companies, universities, non-governmental organizations, and foreign entities in multiple types of teaming arrangements. The paper will examine this set of applications projects and present specific examples of successful use of Earth science in decision making. The paper will discuss scientific, organizational, and management factors that contribute to or impede the integration of the Earth science research in policy and management. The paper will also present new methods the Applied Sciences Program plans to implement to improve linkages between science and end users.

Capable and credible? Challenging nutrition science

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Penders, Bart; Wolters, Anna; Feskens, Edith F.; Brouns, Fred; Huber, Machteld; Maeckelberghe, Els L.M.; Navis, Gerjan; Ockhuizen, Theo; Plat, Jogchum; Sikkema, Jan; Stasse-Wolthuis, Marianne; Veer, van 't Pieter; Verweij, Marcel; Vries, de Jan

2017-01-01

Nutrition science has enriched our understanding of how to stay healthy by producing valuable knowledge about the interaction of nutrients, food, and the human body. Nutrition science also has raised societal awareness about the links between food consumption and well-being, and provided the basis

Effects of child interview tactics on prospective jurors' decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Jonni L; Shelley, Alexandra E

2014-01-01

Although decisions in child sexual abuse (CSA) cases are influenced by many factors (e.g., child age, juror gender), case and trial characteristics (e.g., interview quality) can strongly influence legal outcomes. In the present study, 319 prospective jurors read about a CSA investigation in which the alleged victim was interviewed at a child advocacy center (CAC) or traditional police setting. The prospective jurors then provided legally relevant ratings (e.g., child credibility, interview quality, defendant guilt). Structural equation modeling techniques revealed that child credibility predicted greater confidence in guilt decisions and also mediated all associations with such decisions. Having fewer negative prior opinions and rating the interview as of better quality were associated with higher child credibility ratings. Mitigating factors (e.g., interview quality), as opposed to proxy indicators (e.g., participant gender), better predicted CSA case outcomes. Similar associations across groups (e.g., CAC interviews did not make child victims more or less credible) permit a tentative conclusion that CACs do not positively or negatively affect decisions made in hypothetical CSA cases. Ideas for future studies examining factors influencing decisions in CSA cases are discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Would a madman have been so wise as this?" The effects of source credibility and message credibility on validation.

Science.gov (United States)

Foy, Jeffrey E; LoCasto, Paul C; Briner, Stephen W; Dyar, Samantha

2017-02-01

Readers rapidly check new information against prior knowledge during validation, but research is inconsistent as to whether source credibility affects validation. We argue that readers are likely to accept highly plausible assertions regardless of source, but that high source credibility may boost acceptance of claims that are less plausible based on general world knowledge. In Experiment 1, participants read narratives with assertions for which the plausibility varied depending on the source. For high credibility sources, we found that readers were faster to read information confirming these assertions relative to contradictory information. We found the opposite patterns for low credibility characters. In Experiment 2, readers read claims from the same high or low credibility sources, but the claims were always plausible based on general world knowledge. Readers consistently took longer to read contradictory information, regardless of source. In Experiment 3, participants read modified versions of "The Tell-Tale Heart," which was narrated entirely by an unreliable source. We manipulated the plausibility of a target event, as well as whether high credibility characters within the story provided confirmatory or contradictory information about the narrator's description of the target event. Though readers rated the narrator as being insane, they were more likely to believe the narrator's assertions about the target event when it was plausible and corroborated by other characters. We argue that sourcing research would benefit from focusing on the relationship between source credibility, message credibility, and multiple sources within a text.

Teaching science for public understanding: Developing decision-making abilities

Science.gov (United States)

Siegel, Marcelle A.

One of the most important challenges educators have is teaching students how to make decisions about complex issues. In this study, methods designed to enhance students' decision-making skills and attitudes were investigated. An issue-oriented science curriculum was partly replaced with activities designed by the experimenter. The first objective of the study was to examine the effects of an instructional method to increase students' use of relevant scientific evidence in their decisions. The second goal of the research was to test whether the instructional activities could promote students' beliefs that science is relevant to them, because attitudes have been shown to affect students' performance and persistence (Schommer, 1994). Third, the study was designed to determine whether the instructional activities would affect students' beliefs that their intelligence is not fixed but can grow; this question is based on Dweck and Leggett's (1988) definition of two orientations toward intelligence---entity theorists and incremental theorists (Dweck & Leggett, 1988; Dweck & Henderson, 1989). Two urban high-school classrooms participated in this study. Tenth graders examined scientific materials about current issues involving technology and society. Instructional materials on decision making were prepared for one class of students to enhance their regular issue-oriented course, Science and Sustainability. A computer program, called Convince Me (Schank, Ranney & Hoadley, 1996), provided scaffolding for making an evidence-based decision. The experimental group's activities also included pen-and-paper lessons on decision making and the effect of experience on the structure of the brain. The control class continued to engage in Science and Sustainability decision-making activities during the time the experimental class completed the treatment. The control group did not show significant improvement on decision-making tasks, and the experimental group showed marginally

Decision Analysis: Engineering Science or Clinical Art

Science.gov (United States)

1979-11-01

TECHNICAL REPORT TR 79-2-97 DECISION ANALYSIS: ENGINEERING SCIENCE OR CLINICAL ART ? by Dennis M. Buede Prepared for Defense Advanced Research...APPLICATIONS OF THE ENGINEER- ING SCIENCE AND CLINICAL ART EXTREMES 9 3.1 Applications of the Engineering Science Approach 9 3.1.1 Mexican electrical...DISCUSSION 29 4.1 Engineering Science versus Clinical Art : A Characterization of When Each is Most Attractive 30 4.2 The Implications of the Engineering

Methodological decisions and the evaluation of possible effects of different family structures on children: The new family structures survey (NFSS).

Science.gov (United States)

Schumm, Walter R

2012-11-01

Every social science researcher must make a number of methodological decisions when planning and implementing research projects. Each such decision carries with it both advantages and limitations. The decisions faced and made by Regnerus (2012) are discussed here in the wider context of social science literature regarding same-sex parenting. Even though the apparent outcomes of Regnerus's study were unpopular, the methodological decisions he made in the design and implementation of the New Family Structures Survey were not uncommon among social scientists, including many progressive, gay and lesbian scholars. These decisions and the research they produced deserve considerable and continued discussion, but criticisms of the underlying ethics and professionalism are misplaced because nearly every methodological decision that was made has ample precedents in research published by many other credible and distinguished scholars. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Overview of R in Health Decision Sciences.

Science.gov (United States)

Jalal, Hawre; Pechlivanoglou, Petros; Krijkamp, Eline; Alarid-Escudero, Fernando; Enns, Eva; Hunink, M G Myriam

2017-10-01

As the complexity of health decision science applications increases, high-level programming languages are increasingly adopted for statistical analyses and numerical computations. These programming languages facilitate sophisticated modeling, model documentation, and analysis reproducibility. Among the high-level programming languages, the statistical programming framework R is gaining increased recognition. R is freely available, cross-platform compatible, and open source. A large community of users who have generated an extensive collection of well-documented packages and functions supports it. These functions facilitate applications of health decision science methodology as well as the visualization and communication of results. Although R's popularity is increasing among health decision scientists, methodological extensions of R in the field of decision analysis remain isolated. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of existing R functionality that is applicable to the various stages of decision analysis, including model design, input parameter estimation, and analysis of model outputs.

Capable and credible? Challenging nutrition science : Challenging nutrition science

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Penders, Bart; Wolters, Anna; Feskens, Edith F; Brouns, Fred; Huber, Machteld; Maeckelberghe, Els L M; Navis, Gerjan; Ockhuizen, Theo; Plat, Jogchum; Sikkema, Jan; Stasse-Wolthuis, Marianne; van 't Veer, Pieter; Verweij, Marcel; de Vries, Jan

Nutrition science has enriched our understanding of how to stay healthy by producing valuable knowledge about the interaction of nutrients, food, and the human body. Nutrition science also has raised societal awareness about the links between food consumption and well-being, and provided the basis

Cross-validation of the Dot Counting Test in a large sample of credible and non-credible patients referred for neuropsychological testing.

Science.gov (United States)

McCaul, Courtney; Boone, Kyle B; Ermshar, Annette; Cottingham, Maria; Victor, Tara L; Ziegler, Elizabeth; Zeller, Michelle A; Wright, Matthew

2018-01-18

To cross-validate the Dot Counting Test in a large neuropsychological sample. Dot Counting Test scores were compared in credible (n = 142) and non-credible (n = 335) neuropsychology referrals. Non-credible patients scored significantly higher than credible patients on all Dot Counting Test scores. While the original E-score cut-off of ≥17 achieved excellent specificity (96.5%), it was associated with mediocre sensitivity (52.8%). However, the cut-off could be substantially lowered to ≥13.80, while still maintaining adequate specificity (≥90%), and raising sensitivity to 70.0%. Examination of non-credible subgroups revealed that Dot Counting Test sensitivity in feigned mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) was 55.8%, whereas sensitivity was 90.6% in patients with non-credible cognitive dysfunction in the context of claimed psychosis, and 81.0% in patients with non-credible cognitive performance in depression or severe TBI. Thus, the Dot Counting Test may have a particular role in detection of non-credible cognitive symptoms in claimed psychiatric disorders. Alternative to use of the E-score, failure on ≥1 cut-offs applied to individual Dot Counting Test scores (≥6.0″ for mean grouped dot counting time, ≥10.0″ for mean ungrouped dot counting time, and ≥4 errors), occurred in 11.3% of the credible sample, while nearly two-thirds (63.6%) of the non-credible sample failed one of more of these cut-offs. An E-score cut-off of 13.80, or failure on ≥1 individual score cut-offs, resulted in few false positive identifications in credible patients, and achieved high sensitivity (64.0-70.0%), and therefore appear appropriate for use in identifying neurocognitive performance invalidity.

Facts, perception of facts, and the credibility of the process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rossin, A.D.

1983-01-01

This paper analyses nuclear opposition in the United States, in particular as concerns construction of new facilities. The US adopted in 1969 the National Environmental Policy Act and subsequently, other regulations designed to assure public access to the decision-making process. However nuclear opponents continue to use every level of legal recourse open which results in doubts, delays and erosion of the credibility of the regulatory process. The author concludes that the most important objective is the continued safe operation of nuclear power plants. (NEA) [fr

Building the Capacity for Climate Services: Thoughts on Training Next Generation Climate Science Integrators

Science.gov (United States)

Garfin, G. M.; Brugger, J.; Gordon, E. S.; Barsugli, J. J.; Rangwala, I.; Travis, W.

2015-12-01

For more than a decade, stakeholder needs assessments and reports, including the recent National Climate Assessment, have pointed out the need for climate "science translators" or "science integrators" who can help bridge the gap between the cultures and contexts of researchers and decision-makers. Integration is important for exchanging and enhancing knowledge, building capacity to use climate information in decision making, and fostering more robust planning for decision-making in the context of climate change. This talk will report on the characteristics of successful climate science integrators, and a variety of models for training the upcoming generation of climate science integrators. Science integration characteristics identified by an experienced vanguard in the U.S. include maintaining credibility in both the scientific and stakeholder communities, a basic respect for stakeholders demonstrated through active listening, and a deep understanding of the decision-making context. Drawing upon the lessons of training programs for Cooperative Extension, public health professionals, and natural resource managers, we offer ideas about training next generation climate science integrators. Our model combines training and development of skills in interpersonal relations, communication of science, project implementation, education techniques and practices - integrated with a strong foundation in disciplinary knowledge.

Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina

2016-01-01

Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate......, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect......) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; (2) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; (3) supporting transdisciplinary research; and (4) supporting education and outreach efforts....

Building credibility in international banking and financial markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Poul Erik Flyvholm; Isaksson, Maria

2008-01-01

. There is also clear evidence that corporate advertising is in fact strongly focussed on communicating credibility with less than 10% of discourse and visuals devoted to credibility-free themes and issues. Research implications/limitations - The study takes a production perspective, using discourse......Purpose - The research draws a detailed picture of how international corporate banks and financial institutions approach image advertising to enhance impressions of their credibility. The purpose of the work is twofold, namely to demonstrate (1) how corporate credibility can be conceptualised...... appeal forms. A corpus of 74 print adverts was then analysed in order to establish how financial marketers use the appeal forms to strengthen their corporate reputations. The patterns of credibility appeals obtained were then linked to the supporting visuals to provide a fuller picture of the industry...

Science in Society: Bridging the gap to connect science to decision makers

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, L.; Bwarie, J.; Pearce, I.

2016-12-01

The gap between science and decision making in our society can be large and multi-faceted, involving communication, process, cultural and even subconscious differences. In sweeping generalization, scientists reject anecdotes, focus on uncertainty and details, and expect conflict as part of the scientific process, while non-scientists respond to stories, want certainty and the big picture, and see conflict as a reason to reject the message. Bridging this gap often requires ongoing collaboration to find the intersection of three independent domains: what science can provide, the technical information decision makers need to make the most effective choices and what information decision makers need to motivate action. For ten years, the USGS has experimented with improving the usefulness of its science through the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Project and its predecessor, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California. Through leading and participating in these activities, we have recognized 3 steps that have been essential to successful partnerships between scientists and decision makers. First, determining what makes for a successful product cannot be done in isolation by either scientists or users. The users may want something science cannot produce (e.g., accurate short-term earthquake predictions), while the scientists can fail to see that the product they know how to make may not be relevant to the decisions that need to be made. Real discussions with real exchange and absorption of information on both sides makes for the most useful products. Second, most scientific results need work beyond what belongs in a journal to create a product that can be used. This is not just a different style of communication, but analyses that focus on the community's local questions rather than on scientific advances. Third, probabilities of natural hazards almost never motivate action to mitigate. The probabilities are usually low on human time

CredibleMeds.org: What does it offer?

Science.gov (United States)

Woosley, Raymond L; Black, Kristin; Heise, C William; Romero, Klaus

2018-02-01

Since the 1990s, when numerous non-cardiac drugs were first recognized to have the potential to prolong the QT interval and cause torsades de pointes (TdP), clinicians, drug regulators, drug developers, and clinical investigators have become aware of the complexities of assessing evidence and determining TdP causality for the many drugs being marketed or under development. To facilitate better understanding, the Arizona Center for Education and Research on Therapeutics, known as AZCERT, has developed the CredibleMeds.org website which includes QTdrugs, a listing of over 220 drugs placed in four risk categories based on their association with QT prolongation and TdP. Since the site was launched in 1999, it has become the single and most reliable source of information of its kind for patients, healthcare providers, and research scientists. Over 96,000 registered users rely on the QTdrugs database as their primary resource to inform their medication use, their prescribing or their clinical research into the impact of QT-prolonging drugs and drug-induced arrhythmias. The QTdrugs lists are increasingly used as the basis for clinical decision support systems in healthcare and for metrics of prescribing quality by healthcare insurers. A free smartphone app and an application program interface enable rapid and mobile access to the lists. Also, the CredibleMeds website offers numerous educational resources for patients, educators and healthcare providers that foster the safe use of medications. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigating electronic word-of-mouth effects on online discussion forums: the role of perceived positive electronic word-of-mouth review credibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Chih, Wen-Hai; Wang, Kai-Yu; Hsu, Li-Chun; Huang, Su-Chen

2013-09-01

Electronic word of mouth (eWOM) has been an important factor influencing consumer purchase decisions. Using the ABC model of attitude, this study proposes a model to explain how eWOM affects online discussion forums. Specifically, we propose that platform (Web site reputation and source credibility) and customer (obtaining buying-related information and social orientation through information) factors influence purchase intentions via perceived positive eWOM review credibility, as well as product and Web site attitudes in an online community context. A total of 353 online discussion forum users in an online community (Fashion Guide) in Taiwan were recruited, and structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to test the research hypotheses. The results indicate that Web site reputation, source credibility, obtaining buying-related information, and social orientation through information positively influence perceived positive eWOM review credibility. In turn, perceived positive eWOM review credibility directly influences purchase intentions and also indirectly influences purchase intentions via product and Web site attitudes. Finally, we discuss the theoretical and managerial implications of the findings.

Enhancing the quality and credibility of qualitative analysis.

OpenAIRE

Patton, M Q

1999-01-01

Varying philosophical and theoretical orientations to qualitative inquiry remind us that issues of quality and credibility intersect with audience and intended research purposes. This overview examines ways of enhancing the quality and credibility of qualitative analysis by dealing with three distinct but related inquiry concerns: rigorous techniques and methods for gathering and analyzing qualitative data, including attention to validity, reliability, and triangulation; the credibility, comp...

Does STES-Oriented Science Education Promote 10th-Grade Students' Decision-Making Capability?

Science.gov (United States)

Levy Nahum, Tami; Ben-Chaim, David; Azaiza, Ibtesam; Herskovitz, Orit; Zoller, Uri

2010-07-01

Today's society is continuously coping with sustainability-related complex issues in the Science-Technology-Environment-Society (STES) interfaces. In those contexts, the need and relevance of the development of students' higher-order cognitive skills (HOCS) such as question-asking, critical-thinking, problem-solving and decision-making capabilities within science teaching have been argued by several science educators for decades. Three main objectives guided this study: (1) to establish "base lines" for HOCS capabilities of 10th grade students (n = 264) in the Israeli educational system; (2) to delineate within this population, two different groups with respect to their decision-making capability, science-oriented (n = 142) and non-science (n = 122) students, Groups A and B, respectively; and (3) to assess the pre-post development/change of students' decision-making capabilities via STES-oriented HOCS-promoting curricular modules entitled Science, Technology and Environment in Modern Society (STEMS). A specially developed and validated decision-making questionnaire was used for obtaining a research-based response to the guiding research questions. Our findings suggest that a long-term persistent application of purposed decision-making, promoting teaching strategies, is needed in order to succeed in affecting, positively, high-school students' decision-making ability. The need for science teachers' involvement in the development of their students' HOCS capabilities is thus apparent.

Strategic Curricular Decisions in Butler University's Actuarial Science Major

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Christopher James

2014-01-01

We describe specific curricular decisions employed at Butler University that have resulted in student achievement in the actuarial science major. The paper includes a discussion of how these decisions might be applied in the context of a new actuarial program.

Determinants of Judgments of Explanatory Power: Credibility, Generality, and Statistical Relevance

Science.gov (United States)

Colombo, Matteo; Bucher, Leandra; Sprenger, Jan

2017-01-01

Explanation is a central concept in human psychology. Drawing upon philosophical theories of explanation, psychologists have recently begun to examine the relationship between explanation, probability and causality. Our study advances this growing literature at the intersection of psychology and philosophy of science by systematically investigating how judgments of explanatory power are affected by (i) the prior credibility of an explanatory hypothesis, (ii) the causal framing of the hypothesis, (iii) the perceived generalizability of the explanation, and (iv) the relation of statistical relevance between hypothesis and evidence. Collectively, the results of our five experiments support the hypothesis that the prior credibility of a causal explanation plays a central role in explanatory reasoning: first, because of the presence of strong main effects on judgments of explanatory power, and second, because of the gate-keeping role it has for other factors. Highly credible explanations are not susceptible to causal framing effects, but they are sensitive to the effects of normatively relevant factors: the generalizability of an explanation, and its statistical relevance for the evidence. These results advance current literature in the philosophy and psychology of explanation in three ways. First, they yield a more nuanced understanding of the determinants of judgments of explanatory power, and the interaction between these factors. Second, they show the close relationship between prior beliefs and explanatory power. Third, they elucidate the nature of abductive reasoning. PMID:28928679

Credibility of Policy Announcements Under Asymmetric Information

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Michael

1999-01-01

In a simple macro-economic model, where the monetary authorities process superior information about a real shocks, the scope for an active stabilization policy is shown to depend on the credibility of the policy maker. Lack of credibility increases the need for an active stabilization policy...

Towards a Transparent, Credible, Evidence-Based Decision-Making Process of New Drug Listing on the Hong Kong Hospital Authority Drug Formulary: Challenges and Suggestions.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Carlos King Ho; Wu, Olivia; Cheung, Bernard M Y

2018-02-01

The aim of this article is to describe the process, evaluation criteria, and possible outcomes of decision-making for new drugs listed in the Hong Kong Hospital Authority Drug Formulary in comparison to the health technology assessment (HTA) policy overseas. Details of decision-making processes including the new drug listing submission, Drug Advisory Committee (DAC) meeting, and procedures prior to and following the meeting, were extracted from the official Hong Kong Hospital Authority drug formulary management website and manual. Publicly-available information related to the new drug decision-making process for five HTA agencies [the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE), the Scottish Medicines Consortium (SMC), the Australia Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC), the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health (CADTH), and the New Zealand Pharmaceutical Management Agency (PHARMAC)] were reviewed and retrieved from official documents from public domains. The DAC is in charge of systemically and critically appraising new drugs before they are listed on the formulary, reviewing submitted applications, and making the decision to list the drug based on scientific evidence to which safety, efficacy, and cost-effectiveness are the primary considerations. When compared with other HTA agencies, transparency of the decision-making process of the DAC, the relevance of clinical and health economic evidence, and the lack of health economic and methodological input of submissions are the major challenges to the new-drug listing policy in Hong Kong. Despite these challenges, this review provides suggestions for the establishment of a more transparent, credible, and evidence-based decision-making process in the Hong Kong Hospital Authority Drug Formulary. Proposals for improvement in the listing of new drugs in the formulary should be a priority of healthcare reforms.

Credibility and trust in risk communication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renn, O.; Levine, D.

1989-01-01

The paper attempts to summarize the major findings of the psychological and sociological literature on trust and credibility, and to apply these findings to the specific arena of risk communication. A few guidelines for risk communication that appear appropriate for the social and institutional context in which the risk debate takes place are presented. The case studies of credibility of nuclear energy, biotechnology, medicine, and aviation are discussed. (DG)

Quantitative Decision Support Requires Quantitative User Guidance

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, L. A.

2009-12-01

Is it conceivable that models run on 2007 computer hardware could provide robust and credible probabilistic information for decision support and user guidance at the ZIP code level for sub-daily meteorological events in 2060? In 2090? Retrospectively, how informative would output from today’s models have proven in 2003? or the 1930’s? Consultancies in the United Kingdom, including the Met Office, are offering services to “future-proof” their customers from climate change. How is a US or European based user or policy maker to determine the extent to which exciting new Bayesian methods are relevant here? or when a commercial supplier is vastly overselling the insights of today’s climate science? How are policy makers and academic economists to make the closely related decisions facing them? How can we communicate deep uncertainty in the future at small length-scales without undermining the firm foundation established by climate science regarding global trends? Three distinct aspects of the communication of the uses of climate model output targeting users and policy makers, as well as other specialist adaptation scientists, are discussed. First, a brief scientific evaluation of the length and time scales at which climate model output is likely to become uninformative is provided, including a note on the applicability the latest Bayesian methodology to current state-of-the-art general circulation models output. Second, a critical evaluation of the language often employed in communication of climate model output, a language which accurately states that models are “better”, have “improved” and now “include” and “simulate” relevant meteorological processed, without clearly identifying where the current information is thought to be uninformative and misleads, both for the current climate and as a function of the state of the (each) climate simulation. And thirdly, a general approach for evaluating the relevance of quantitative climate model output

LCLS Maximum Credible Beam Power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clendenin, J.

2005-01-01

The maximum credible beam power is defined as the highest credible average beam power that the accelerator can deliver to the point in question, given the laws of physics, the beam line design, and assuming all protection devices have failed. For a new accelerator project, the official maximum credible beam power is determined by project staff in consultation with the Radiation Physics Department, after examining the arguments and evidence presented by the appropriate accelerator physicist(s) and beam line engineers. The definitive parameter becomes part of the project's safety envelope. This technical note will first review the studies that were done for the Gun Test Facility (GTF) at SSRL, where a photoinjector similar to the one proposed for the LCLS is being tested. In Section 3 the maximum charge out of the gun for a single rf pulse is calculated. In Section 4, PARMELA simulations are used to track the beam from the gun to the end of the photoinjector. Finally in Section 5 the beam through the matching section and injected into Linac-1 is discussed

Credibility is the first principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beecher, William

2002-01-01

The first principle of an effective public affairs program on nuclear energy is credibility. If credibility is lacking, no matter how artful the message, it will not be persuasive. There has long been a problem in the United States. For years much of the industry followed the practice, when there was an event at a nuclear power plant that resulted in an unplanned release of radioactivity, to tell the public there was 'no release' if in fact the release was below the technical specifications of what the NRC mandates as being safe. The NRC is a safety regulator. It can tell nuclear power plant operators what to do, or not do, when it comes to safety, but doesn't have the right to tell them what to say to the public. The example of an emergency exercise and the NRC press release on that occasion showed the direction how companies could be influenced to behave in order to prevent such avoidably negative news coverage, i.e. attaining credibility when public anxiety is concerned

Credible nuclear waste management: a legislative perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeffords, J.M.

1978-01-01

The past credibility of the AEC, ERDA, and NRC, along with the present credibility of DOE and NRC, are questioned. The results of voter responses to a moratorium on expansion of nuclear power are linked to the question of past credibility of these Federal agencies. It is proposed that the future of nuclear power be linked directly to the Executive Branch of the government via a new bureaucracy, a Waste Management Authority. This new bureaucracy would be completely separated from the construction or licensing phase of nuclear power, except it would have final say over any nuclear power expansion pending an acceptable solution to the waste reprocessing question

International earth science information network for global change decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Autrey-Hunley, C.; Kuhn, W.R.; Kasischke, E.; Trichel, M.T.; Coppola, R.

1991-01-01

Effective environmental decision making depends upon the ability to predict physical changes in the environment, societal responses to these changes, and how both the physical changes and societal responses will be affected by changes in government regulations, public perceptions and the environment. Technological advances in remote sensing have provided a wealth of earth science data necessary to study global change problems; the Earth Observatory System will provide an unprecedented data source in the late 1990's. The Consortium for an International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) will combine earth science data (both satellite and ground-based) with data on the social sciences (e.g., economics, demographics, public health) to support informed policy decisions and to transfer knowledge on global change and its causes to the public.

Use of Information Technology Tools in Source Selection Decision Making: A Study on USAF’s KC-X Tanker Replacement Program

Science.gov (United States)

2008-06-01

The most common outranking methods are the preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation ( PROMETHEE ) and the elimination and...Brans and Ph. Vincke, “A Preference Ranking Organization Method: (The PROMETHEE Method for Multiple Criteria Decision-Making),” Management Science 31... PROMETHEE ). This method needs a preference function for each criterion to compute the degree of preference.72 “The credibility of the outranking

Exchange rate stabilization under imperfect credibility

OpenAIRE

Calvo, Guillermo; Vegh, Carlos

1991-01-01

This paper analyzes stabilization policy under predetermined exchange rates in a cash-in-advance, staggered-prices model. Under full credibility, a reduction in the rate of devaluation results in an immediate and permanent reduction in the inflation rate, with no effect on output or consumption. In contrast, a non-credible stabilization results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The inflation rate of home goods remains above the rate of devaluation throughout...

Credibility judgments of narratives: language, plausibility, and absorption.

Science.gov (United States)

Nahari, Galit; Glicksohn, Joseph; Nachson, Israel

2010-01-01

Two experiments were conducted in order to find out whether textual features of narratives differentially affect credibility judgments made by judges having different levels of absorption (a disposition associated with rich visual imagination). Participants in both experiments were exposed to a textual narrative and requested to judge whether the narrator actually experienced the event he described in his story. In Experiment 1, the narrative varied in terms of language (literal, figurative) and plausibility (ordinary, anomalous). In Experiment 2, the narrative varied in terms of language only. The participants' perceptions of the plausibility of the story described and the extent to which they were absorbed in reading were measured. The data from both experiments together suggest that the groups applied entirely different criteria in credibility judgments. For high-absorption individuals, their credibility judgment depends on the degree to which the text can be assimilated into their own vivid imagination, whereas for low-absorption individuals it depends mainly on plausibility. That is, high-absorption individuals applied an experiential mental set while judging the credibility of the narrator, whereas low-absorption individuals applied an instrumental mental set. Possible cognitive mechanisms and implications for credibility judgments are discussed.

Credibility assessment in child sexual abuse investigations: A descriptive analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Melkman, Eran P; Hershkowitz, Irit; Zur, Ronit

2017-05-01

A major challenge in cases of child sexual abuse (CSA) is determining the credibility of children's reports. Consequently cases may be misclassified as false or deemed 'no judgment possible'. Based on a large national sample of reports of CSA made in Israel in 2014, the study examines child and event characteristics contributing to the probability that reports of abuse would be judged credible. National data files of all children aged 3-14, who were referred for investigation following suspected victimization of sexual abuse, and had disclosed sexual abuse, were analyzed. Cases were classified as either 'credible' or 'no judgment possible'. The probability of reaching a 'credible' judgment was examined in relation to characteristics of the child (age, gender, cognitive delay, marital status of the parents,) and of the abusive event (abuse severity, frequency, perpetrator-victim relationship, perpetrator's use of grooming, and perpetrator's use of coercion), controlling for investigator's identity at the cluster level of the analysis. Of 1563 cases analyzed, 57.9% were assessed as credible. The most powerful predictors of a credible judgment were older age and absence of a cognitive delay. Reports of children to married parents, who experienced a single abusive event that involved perpetrator's use of grooming, were also more likely to be judged as credible. Rates of credible judgments found are lower than expected suggesting under-identification of truthful reports of CSA. In particular, those cases of severe and multiple abuse involving younger and cognitively delayed children are the ones with the lowest chances of being assessed as credible. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aggregated trustworthiness: Redefining online credibility through social validation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jessen, Johan; Jørgensen, Anker Helms

2012-01-01

This article investigates the impact of social dynamics on online credibility. Empirical studies by Pettingill (2006) and Hargittai, et al. (2010) suggest that social validation and online trustees play increasingly important roles when evaluating credibility online. This dynamic puts pressure...

Credibility Perceptions of User Generated Content

OpenAIRE

Murugan, S.; Nagarajan, Dr. P.S.

2017-01-01

Social media users generate a large volume of user generated content in various social media platforms to share their experiences in using a brand or a service. In the travel industry, the user generated content reviews are used by the prospective travellers to decide their travel plans. In the 1950’s credibility research of the media was started when television was introduced as a new media in the world dominated by newspapers. In the Social Media platforms, the credibility assessment is muc...

Better science does not make decisions easier

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ale, B.J.M.

2013-01-01

Forty years of development in the science and technology of estimating and quantifying risk, of understanding of human behaviour and human rationale has made decision makers more informed. We are in a much better position now, than forty years ago in estimating probabilities, consequences, and

Evaluation Science

Science.gov (United States)

Patton, Michael Quinn

2018-01-01

Culturally and politically science is under attack. The core consequence of perceiving and asserting evaluation as science is that it enhances our credibility and effectiveness in supporting the importance of science in our world and brings us together with other scientists to make common cause in supporting and advocating for science. Other…

Evaluation method of nuclear nonproliferation credibility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwon, Eun-ha; Ko, Won Il

2009-01-01

This paper presents an integrated multicriteria analysis method for the quantitative evaluation of a state's nuclear nonproliferation credibility level. Underscoring the implications of policy on the sources of political demand for nuclear weapons rather than focusing on efforts to restrict the supply of specific weapons technology from the 'haves' to the 'have-nots', the proposed methodology considers the political, social, and cultural dimensions of nuclear proliferation. This methodology comprises three steps: (1) identifying the factors that influence credibility formation and employing them to construct a criteria tree that will illustrate the relationships among these factors; (2) defining the weight coefficients of each criterion through pairwise comparisons of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP); and (3) assigning numerical scores to a state under each criterion and combining them with the weight coefficients in order to provide an overall assessment of the state. The functionality of this methodology is examined by assessing the current level of nuclear nonproliferation credibility of four countries: Japan, North Korea, South Korea, and Switzerland.

Enhancing the quality and credibility of qualitative analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Patton, M Q

1999-12-01

Varying philosophical and theoretical orientations to qualitative inquiry remind us that issues of quality and credibility intersect with audience and intended research purposes. This overview examines ways of enhancing the quality and credibility of qualitative analysis by dealing with three distinct but related inquiry concerns: rigorous techniques and methods for gathering and analyzing qualitative data, including attention to validity, reliability, and triangulation; the credibility, competence, and perceived trustworthiness of the qualitative researcher; and the philosophical beliefs of evaluation users about such paradigm-based preferences as objectivity versus subjectivity, truth versus perspective, and generalizations versus extrapolations. Although this overview examines some general approaches to issues of credibility and data quality in qualitative analysis, it is important to acknowledge that particular philosophical underpinnings, specific paradigms, and special purposes for qualitative inquiry will typically include additional or substitute criteria for assuring and judging quality, validity, and credibility. Moreover, the context for these considerations has evolved. In early literature on evaluation methods the debate between qualitative and quantitative methodologists was often strident. In recent years the debate has softened. A consensus has gradually emerged that the important challenge is to match appropriately the methods to empirical questions and issues, and not to universally advocate any single methodological approach for all problems.

Integrating environmental monitoring with cumulative effects management and decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Cronmiller, Joshua G; Noble, Bram F

2018-05-01

Cumulative effects (CE) monitoring is foundational to emerging regional and watershed CE management frameworks, yet monitoring is often poorly integrated with CE management and decision-making processes. The challenges are largely institutional and organizational, more so than scientific or technical. Calls for improved integration of monitoring with CE management and decision making are not new, but there has been limited research on how best to integrate environmental monitoring programs to ensure credible CE science and to deliver results that respond to the more immediate questions and needs of regulatory decision makers. This paper examines options for the integration of environmental monitoring with CE frameworks. Based on semistructured interviews with practitioners, regulators, and other experts in the Lower Athabasca, Alberta, Canada, 3 approaches to monitoring system design are presented. First, a distributed monitoring system, reflecting the current approach in the Lower Athabasca, where monitoring is delegated to different external programs and organizations; second, a 1-window system in which monitoring is undertaken by a single, in-house agency for the purpose of informing management and regulatory decision making; third, an independent system driven primarily by CE science and understanding causal relationships, with knowledge adopted for decision support where relevant to specific management questions. The strengths and limitations of each approach are presented. A hybrid approach may be optimal-an independent, nongovernment, 1-window model for CE science, monitoring, and information delivery-capitalizing on the strengths of distributed, 1-window, and independent monitoring systems while mitigating their weaknesses. If governments are committed to solving CE problems, they must invest in the long-term science needed to do so; at the same time, if science-based monitoring programs are to be sustainable over the long term, they must be responsive to

Assessing the credibility of diverting through containment penetrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooley, J.N.; Swindle, D.W. Jr.

1980-01-01

A viable approach has been developed for identifying those containment penetrations in a nuclear fuel reprocessing plant which are credible diversion routes. The approach is based upon systematic engineering and design analyses and is applied to each type of penetration to determine which penetrations could be utilized to divert nuclear material from a reprocessing facility. The approach is described and the results of an application are discussed. In addition, the concept of credibility is developed and discussed. For a typical reprocessing plant design, the number of penetrations determined to be credible without process or piping modifications was approx. 16% of the penetrations originally identified

Institutional credibility and the future of Danish journalism

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ørsten, Mark; Burkal, Rasmus

Credibility is frequently represented as both an ideal goal for journalism as a profession (Vultree, 2010) and as an integral part of the survival strategy of the news industry (Meyer, 2004). Yet there exists no widely accepted operationalization of the concept of credibility. In this paper we...... ethics among Danish journalists....

eWOM credibility on social networking sites: A framework

OpenAIRE

Moran, Gillian; Muzellec, Laurent

2017-01-01

Social networking sites (SNS) offer brands the ability to spread positive electronic Word of Mouth (eWOM) for the purposes of building awareness and acquiring new customers. However, the credibility of eWOM is threatened of late as marketers increasingly try to manipulate eWOM practices on SNS. A greater understanding of eWOM credibility is necessary to better enable marketers to leverage true consumer engagement by generating credible peer-to-peer communications. Yet, to date, there is no on...

The impact of management science on political decision making

Science.gov (United States)

White, M. J.

1971-01-01

The possible impact on public policy and organizational decision making of operations research/management science (OR/MS) is discussed. Criticisms based on the assumption that OR/MS will have influence on decision making and criticisms based on the assumption that it will have no influence are described. New directions in the analysis of analysis and in thinking about policy making are also considered.

Enhancing the role of science in the decision-making of the European Union.

Science.gov (United States)

Allio, Lorenzo; Ballantine, Bruce; Meads, Richard

2006-02-01

Used well, science provides effective ways of identifying potential risks, protecting citizens, and using resources wisely. It enables government decisions to be based on evidence and provides a foundation for a rule-based framework that supports global trade. To ensure that the best available science becomes a key input in the decisions made by EU institutions, this abridged version of a working paper produced for the European Policy Centre, a leading, independent think tank, considers how science is currently used in the policy and decision-making processes of the EU, what the limitations of scientific evidence are, and how a risk assessment process based on scientific 'good practices' can be advantageous. Finally, the paper makes recommendations on how to improve the use of science by EU institutions.

Complexity Science: A Mechanism for Strategic Foresight and Resiliency in National Security Decision-Making.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ackermann, Mark R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-11-01

Most national policy decisions are complex with a variety of stakeholders, disparate interests and the potential for unintended consequences. While a number of analytical tools exist to help decision makers sort through the mountains of data and myriad of options, decision support teams are increasingly turning to complexity science for improved analysis and better insight into the potential impact of policy decisions. While complexity science has great potential, it has only proven useful in limited case s and when properly applied. In advance of more widespread use, a national - level effort to refine complexity science and more rigorously establish its technical underpinnings is recommended.

Understanding the Science behind EPA’s Pesticide Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Science is key to EPA’s decision-making. EPA scientists review these data to determine whether to register a pesticide product or use and any need for specific restrictions. EPA maintains a transparent, public process in assessing potential human health ri

EVALUATION OF NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA MONETARY POLICY CREDIBILITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Toader Valentin

2008-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper, using the models from the economic literature, the authors study the credibility level of National Bank of Romania (NRB during the time span Mars 2007 – Mars 2008. We will use three types of credibility indexes - two from the economic literature and one proposed by the authors. Also, we will emphasize the impact of unpredictable shocks - the natural calamities (drought which affected the aggregate supply in the summer of 2007 and the depreciation of RON against the euro - on the NBR credibility.

Brand emotional credibility: effects of mixed emotions about branded products with varying credibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Mileti, Antonio; Prete, M Irene; Guido, Gianluigi

2013-10-01

This research investigates the effects of mixed emotions on the positioning and on the intention to purchase different categories of branded products (i.e., Attractiveness-products, Expertise-products, and Trustworthiness-products), in relation to their main component of credibility (Ohanian, 1990). On the basis of a focus group (n = 12) aimed to identify the three branded products used as stimuli and a pre-test (n = 240) directed to discover emotions elicited by them, two studies (n = 630; n = 240) were carried out. Positioning and multiple regression analyses showed that positive and negative emotions are positively related with the positioning and the purchase intention of Attractiveness-products, and, respectively, positively and negatively related with those of Trustworthiness-products; whereas negative emotions are negatively associated with those of Expertise-products. Brand Emotional Credibility--i.e., the emotional believability of the brand positioning signals--may help to identify unconscious elements and the simultaneous importance of mixed emotions associated with different products to match consumers' desires and expectations.

Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization under Imperfect Credibility

OpenAIRE

Guillermo Calvo; Carlos A. Végh Gramont

1991-01-01

This paper analyzes stabilization policy under predetermined exchange rates in a cash-in-advance, staggered-prices model. Under full credibility, a reduction in the rate of devaluation results in an immediate and permanent reduction in the inflation rate, with no effect on output or consumption. In contrast, a non-credible stabilization results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The inflation rate of home goods remains above the rate of devaluation throughout th...

The Annapolis Accords on the use of toxicology in decision-making. Annapolis Center Workshop Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gray, G.M.; Baskin, S.I.; Charnley, G.; Cohen, J.T.; Gold, L.S.; Kerkvliet, N.I.; Koenig, H.M.; Lewis, S.C.; McClain, R.M.; Rhomberg, L.R.; Snyder, J.W.; Weekley, L.B.

2000-12-01

The science of toxicology plays an important role in identifying safe conditions of use or exposure for many different kinds of environmental agents. The use of toxicologic information in risk assessment requires careful analysis, evaluation of data, and scientific judgment. These Annapolis Accords are intended to guide appropriate use in risk assessment of the scientific information from toxicology. We believe that application of these principles will improve the scientific credibility of risk assessment and the quality of decisions aimed at reducing and eliminating risks to human health and the environment.

Topic familiarity and information skills in online credibility evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lucassen, T.; Schraagen, J.M.C.

2013-01-01

With the rise of user generated content, evaluating the credibility of information has become increasingly important. It is already known that various user characteristics influence the way credibility evaluation is performed. Domain experts on the topic at hand primarily focus on semantic features

Impact of Celebrity Credibility on Advertising Effectiveness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sadia Aziz

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Advertisers often make use of endorsers or representatives as trustworthy sources of persuasion for consumers' attitudes. Promotion of products through celebrities is a trendy advertising practice around the world. The present study judged the impact of celebrity credibility on advertising effectiveness in terms of consumer’s attitude towards the advertisement, attitude towards the brand and their purchase intention. This study also explored the differences of respondent’s responses towards the advertisements of brand through famous celebrities as well as unknown celebrities. Different TV advertisements were used for the experiment. Several statistical tools were applied to test the hypotheses and identify significant differences & the proposed relationships among the variables. Overall findings suggests that the respondents considered the famous celebrities of the brand as the most credible celebrities, having positive impact on consumers attitude towards the advertisement, attitude to the brand and their favorable purchase intentions as compare to the unknown celebrity with less credibility.

Conquering Credibility for Monetary Policy Under Sticky Confidence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaylson Jair da Silveira

2015-06-01

Full Text Available We derive a best-reply monetary policy when the confidence by price setters on the monetary authority’s commitment to price level targeting may be both incomplete and sticky. We find that complete confidence (or full credibility is not a necessary condition for the achievement of a price level target even when heterogeneity in firms’ price level expectations is endogenously time-varying and may emerge as a long-run equilibrium outcome. In fact, in the absence of exogenous perturbations to the dynamic of confidence building, it is the achievement of a price level target for long enough that, due to stickiness in the state of confidence, rather ensures the conquering of full credibility. This result has relevant implications for the conduct of monetary policy in pursuit of price stability. One implication is that setting a price level target matters more as a means to provide monetary policy with a sharper focus on price stability than as a device to conquer credibility. As regards the conquering of credibility for monetary policy, it turns out that actions speak louder than words, as the continuing achievement of price stability is what ultimately performs better as a confidence-building device.

The Effect of Top-Level Domains and Advertisements on Health Web Site Credibility

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zuoming; Loh, Tracy

2004-01-01

Background Concerns over health information on the Internet have generated efforts to enhance credibility markers; yet how users actually assess the credibility of online health information is largely unknown. Objective This study set out to (1) establish a parsimonious and valid questionnaire instrument to measure credibility of Internet health information by drawing on various previous measures of source, news, and other credibility scales; and (2) to identify the effects of Web-site domains and advertising on credibility perceptions. Methods Respondents (N = 156) examined one of 12 Web-site mock-ups and completed credibility scales in a 3 x 2 x 2 between-subjects experimental design. Factor analysis and validity checks were used for item reduction, and analysis of variance was employed for hypothesis testing of Web-site features' effects. Results In an attempt to construct a credibility instrument, three dimensions of credibility (safety, trustworthiness, and dynamism) were retained, reflecting traditional credibility sub-themes, but composed of items from disparate sources. When testing the effect of the presence or absence of advertising on a Web site on credibility, we found that this depends on the site's domain, with a trend for advertisements having deleterious effects on the credibility of sites with .org domain, but positive effects on sites with .com or .edu domains. Conclusions Health-information Web-site providers should select domains purposefully when they can, especially if they must accept on-site advertising. Credibility perceptions may not be invariant or stable, but rather are sensitive to topic and context. Future research may employ these findings in order to compare other forms of health-information delivery to optimal Web-site features. PMID:15471750

Does the Credible Fiscal Policy Support the Prices Stabilization?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kuncoro Haryo

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This paper aims at analyzing the co-movement between fiscal policy and monetary policy rules in the context of price stabilization. More specifically, we observe the potential impact of fiscal policy credibility on the price stabilization in the inflation targeting framework. Motivated by the fact that empirical studies concerning this aspect are still limited, we take the case of Indonesia over the period 2001-2013. Based on the quarterly data analysis, we found that the impact of credibility typically depends on characteristics of fiscal rules commitment. On one hand, the credibility of debt rule reduces the inflation rate. In contrast, the incredible deficit rule policy does not have any impact on the inflation rate and therefore does not support to inflation targeting. Given those results, we conclude that credibility matters in stabilizing price levels. Accordingly, those findings suggest tightening coordination between monetary and fiscal policy to maintain fiscal sustainability in accordance with price stabilization policy

Credibility judgments in web page design - a brief review.

Science.gov (United States)

Selejan, O; Muresanu, D F; Popa, L; Muresanu-Oloeriu, I; Iudean, D; Buzoianu, A; Suciu, S

2016-01-01

Today, more than ever, knowledge that interfaces appearance analysis is a crucial point in human-computer interaction field has been accepted. As nowadays virtually anyone can publish information on the web, the credibility role has grown increasingly important in relation to the web-based content. Areas like trust, credibility, and behavior, doubled by overall impression and user expectation are today in the spotlight of research compared to the last period, when other pragmatic areas such as usability and utility were considered. Credibility has been discussed as a theoretical construct in the field of communication in the past decades and revealed that people tend to evaluate the credibility of communication primarily by the communicator's expertise. Other factors involved in the content communication process are trustworthiness and dynamism as well as various other criteria but to a lower extent. In this brief review, factors like web page aesthetics, browsing experiences and user experience are considered.

Public confidence in local management officials: organizational credibility and emergency behavior

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sorensen, J.H.

1984-01-01

Confidence issues create potential risks for the public in any emergency situation. They do so because credibility and associated perceptions of legitimacy and competency of organizations are determinants of human behavior in disasters. Credibility, however, is only one of numerous factors that shape response of people or organizations to a threatening event. The purposes of this paper are to review what is known about the way in which credibility and related constructs influence emergency response, discuss how this knowledge applies to radiological emergency planning, and suggest how credibility-induced risk can be minimized in emergency planning and response.

Public confidence in local management officials: organizational credibility and emergency behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sorensen, J.H.

1984-01-01

Confidence issues create potential risks for the public in any emergency situation. They do so because credibility and associated perceptions of legitimacy and competency of organizations are determinants of human behavior in disasters. Credibility, however, is only one of numerous factors that shape response of people or organizations to a threatening event. The purposes of this paper are to review what is known about the way in which credibility and related constructs influence emergency response, discuss how this knowledge applies to radiological emergency planning, and suggest how credibility-induced risk can be minimized in emergency planning and response

How Experienced SoTL Researchers Develop the Credibility of Their Work

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennie Billot

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Teaching and learning research in higher education, often referred to as the Scholarship of Teaching and Learning (SoTL, is still relatively novel in many academic contexts compared to the mainstay of disciplinary research. One indication of this is the challenges those who engage in SoTL report in terms of how this work is valued or considered credible amongst disciplinary colleagues and in the face of institutional policies and practices. This paper moves beyond the literature that describes these specific challenges to investigate how 23 experienced SoTL researchers from five different countries understood the notion of credibility in relationship to their SoTL research and how they went about developing credibility for their work. Semi-structured interviews were facilitated and analyzed using inductive analysis. Findings indicate that notions of credibility encompassed putting SoTL research into action and building capacity and community around research findings, as well as gaining external validation through traditional indicators such as publishing. SoTL researchers reported a variety of strategies and approaches they were using, both formal and informal, to develop credibility for their work. The direct focus of this paper on credibility of SoTL work as perceived by experienced SoTL researchers, and how they go about developing credibility, is a distinct contribution to the discussions about the valuing of SoTL work.

Credibility of experts and institutions in emergency situations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renn, O.; Kastenholz, H.G.

1997-01-01

This article deals with the most important results of communication and psychological studies on credibility and trust in emergency situations. The central insight in this paper has been that communication about the different elements of credibility needs to start before any emergency in order to build trust among the various constituents. In addition, emergency handling institutions need to reflect the experiences they have made during an emergency and involve the public in a social learning process to improve the existing emergency plans. Credibility of institutions relies on the congruence between the expectations of the public with respect to the demanded performance and the preception of the actual performance. Any institution needs to adjust its communication about public expectations as well as institute sufficient control and monitoring to improve actual performance. (orig.) [de

Technological risk: The limits of science in decision-making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, D.; Elliott, P.

1991-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between science and decision making yb reference to a series of debates in South Wales centring around a high-temperature icineration plant operated by Rechem

A Customized Drought Decision Support Tool for Hsinchu Science Park

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jung; Tien, Yu-Chuan; Lin, Hsuan-Te; Liu, Tzu-Ming; Tung, Ching-Pin

2016-04-01

Climate change creates more challenges for water resources management. Due to the lack of sufficient precipitation in Taiwan in fall of 2014, many cities and counties suffered from water shortage during early 2015. Many companies in Hsinchu Science Park were significantly influenced and realized that they need a decision support tool to help them managing water resources. Therefore, a customized computer program was developed, which is capable of predicting the future status of public water supply system and water storage of factories when the water rationing is announced by the government. This program presented in this study for drought decision support (DDSS) is a customized model for a semiconductor company in the Hsinchu Science Park. The DDSS is programmed in Java which is a platform-independent language. System requirements are any PC with the operating system above Windows XP and an installed Java SE Runtime Environment 7. The DDSS serves two main functions. First function is to predict the future storage of Baoshan Reservoir and Second Baoshan Reservoir, so to determine the time point of water use restriction in Hsinchu Science Park. Second function is to use the results to help the company to make decisions to trigger their response plans. The DDSS can conduct real-time scenario simulations calculating the possible storage of water tank for each factory with pre-implementation and post-implementation of those response plans. In addition, DDSS can create reports in Excel to help decision makers to compare results between different scenarios.

Deposit Insurance Coverage, Credibility of Non-insurance, and Banking Crises

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Angkinand, Apanard; Wihlborg, Clas

2005-01-01

level require analyses of institutional factors affecting the credibility of non-insurance. In particular, the implementation of effective distress resolution procedures for banks would allow governments to reduce explicit deposit insurance coverage and, thereby, to strengthen market discipline......The ambiguity in existing empirical work with respect to effects of deposit insurance schemes on banks' risk-taking can be resolved if it is recognized that absence of deposit insurance is rarely credible and that the credibility of non-insurance can be enhanced by explicit deposit insurance...... schemes. We show that under reasonable conditions for effects on risk-taking of creditor protection in banking, and for effects on credibility of non-insurance of explicit coverage of deposit insurance schemes, there exists a partial level of coverage that maximizes market discipline and minimizes moral...

The Use of the Evidence from the Behavioral Sciences in the Organizational Decision-Making Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bogdan MÎNJINĂ

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The important managerial decision-making and the development of policies, strategies, internal normative acts and procedures must be solid grounded for efficient achieving of their objectives. To this end, the evidence-based approach uses various types of evidence, a leading role having those scientific, and the critical thinking. The evidence from behavioral sciences is especially important when the decisions objectives involve behavioral elements. They also help to ensure the rationality of any decision-making process. The concern for the use of behavioral sciences research in the decision-making preceded the occurrence of evidence-based approach. The increased knowledge fund of organizations, the access to the best practices and to the relevant scientific research findings represent only the initial stages of the evidence-based approach implementation and functioning. The ensuring of their effective use calls for special skills training among staff, the creation of tools and organizational mechanisms and of a facilitating organizational culture. This paper argues the need to integrate two approaches that promote the decision-making based on scientific evidence, the evidence-based approach and the use of behavioral and social sciences in the decision-making, to potentiate the contribution of the behavioral sciences to the increasing of the decision-making efficiency. The efforts made in this paper had overall objective to prepare and facilitate the use of research evidence provided by behavioral sciences in the organizational decision-making process by presenting the main concepts and knowledge in the field and by proposing an outline procedure specifically developed.

Grade 7 students' normative decision making in science learning about global warming through science technology and society (STS) approach

Science.gov (United States)

Luengam, Piyanuch; Tupsai, Jiraporn; Yuenyong, Chokchai

2018-01-01

This study reported Grade 7 students' normative decision making in teaching and learning about global warming through science technology and society (STS) approach. The participants were 43 Grade 7 students in Sungkom, Nongkhai, Thailand. The teaching and learning about global warming through STS approach had carried out for 5 weeks. The global warming unit through STS approach was developed based on framework of Yuenyong (2006) that consisted of five stages including (1) identification of social issues, (2) identification of potential solutions, (3) need for knowledge, (4) decision-making, and (5) socialization stage. Students' normative decision making was collected during their learning by questionnaire, participant observation, and students' tasks. Students' normative decision making were analyzed from both pre-and post-intervention and students' ideas during the intervention. The aspects of normative include influences of global warming on technology and society; influences of values, culture, and society on global warming; and influences of technology on global warming. The findings revealed that students have chance to learn science concerning with the relationship between science, technology, and society through their giving reasons about issues related to global warming. The paper will discuss implications of these for science teaching and learning through STS in Thailand.

Vigilance and reason - The keys to continued credibility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arlotto, G.A.

1994-01-01

I have entitle my speech open-quotes Vigilance and Reason-The Keys to Continued Credibilityclose quotes. A partitioning of the words gives insight into my view of where we are, where we may be going, and that we have control of our fate. open-quotes Continuedclose quotes indicates that I believe, at present, the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Codes and Standards process has credibility. open-quotes Keysclose quotes connotes that we are at a crossroads and something must be done to stay on track. And open-quotes Vigilance and Reasonclose quotes suggest that we can achieve our goal of continued credibility through exercising vigilance and reason. We cannot rest on our laurels. We must take conscious, positive actions to strengthen the credibility of our products; otherwise we will backslide. It is up to us

Decision science: a scientific approach to enhance public health budgeting.

Science.gov (United States)

Honoré, Peggy A; Fos, Peter J; Smith, Torney; Riley, Michael; Kramarz, Kim

2010-01-01

The allocation of resources for public health programming is a complicated and daunting responsibility. Financial decision-making processes within public health agencies are especially difficult when not supported with techniques for prioritizing and ranking alternatives. This article presents a case study of a decision analysis software model that was applied to the process of identifying funding priorities for public health services in the Spokane Regional Health District. Results on the use of this decision support system provide insights into how decision science models, which have been used for decades in business and industry, can be successfully applied to public health budgeting as a means of strengthening agency financial management processes.

Management Information, Decision Sciences, and Financial Economics : a connection

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

2018-01-01

markdownabstractThe paper provides a brief review of the connecting literature in management information, decision sciences, and financial economics, and discusses some research that is related to the three cognate disciplines. Academics could develop theoretical models and subsequent

ANALYSIS OF STUDENTS’ DECISION MAKING TO SOLVE SCIENCE REASONING TEST OF TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL MATHEMATICS AND SCIENCE STUDY (TIMSS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Novianawati

2015-04-01

Full Text Available This study aims to determine students’ decision making strategy to answer TIMSS science reasoning test in cognitive reasoning domain. This research is quantitative descriptive research. The result shows that students tend to use compensatory strategy for decision making in solving multiple-choice questions and use rational category to answer essay questions. The result shows that more than half of students have been able to answer the questions TIMSS science tests correctly.

Mathematical Validation and Credibility of Diagnostic Blocks for Spinal Pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Engel, Andrew J; Bogduk, Nikolai

2016-10-01

Diagnostic blocks are used in different ways for the diagnosis of spinal pain, but their validity has not been fully evaluated. Four clinical protocols were analyzed mathematically to determine the probability of correct responses arising by chance. The complement of this probability was adopted as a measure of the credibility of correct responses. The credibility of responses varied from 50% to 95%, and was determined less by the agents used but more by what information was given to patients and if the agents were fully randomized for each block. Randomized, comparative local anesthetic blocks offer a credibility of 75%, but randomized, placebo-controlled blocks provide a credibility of 95%, and are thereby suitable as a criterion standard for diagnostic blocks. © 2016 American Academy of Pain Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Business of Co-Production: Assessing Efforts to Bridge Science and Decision-Making for Adaptation in California

Science.gov (United States)

Webber, S.; MacDonald, G. M.

2016-12-01

The last decades have seen scholars argue for a greater integration of science and decision-making in order to more effectively respond to climate change. It has been suggested that overcoming the gap between science, on the one hand, and policy-making and management, on the other, requires building bridges through methods of co-production, creating actionable science, or through boundary organizations. In this paper, we review attempts at co-production for policy-making and management in the context of climate change adaptation in California. Building on field research, including numerous interviews conducted with scientists and decision-makers who are co-producers of adaptation projects, we make three arguments. First, we show that an emphasis on co-production and science-informed climate change adaptation decision-making has bolstered a contract-oriented, and decentralized network-based model of producing climate science. Second, reviewing successes and failures in co-production - as reported in interviews - indicates that it is principally in cases of neatly defined, and spatially and temporarily narrow decision-making contexts, and with highly motivated decision-makers, that climate science is used. Finally, we suggest that the ideas of co-production and actionable science may have increased the institutional and organizational burden at the science-decision interface, lengthening the boundary-organization-chain rather than necessarily facilitating adaptive policy-making and management.

Credible decision-making regarding the management of spent nuclear fuel -four key questions concerning the decision-making process

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaaberger, T. [Swedish Society for Nature Conservation (Sweden)

1995-12-01

The author starts by questioning the need for an EIA, since he sees a common attitude that the EIA is a tool for getting the community to accept the implementation of decisions that have already been made, and not a rational, organized way of achieving a basis for decision-making. A question of decisive importance for the relevancy of an EIA is whether (or not) the decisions already have been made, and the author points at indications which he believes support this view. Finally, arguments for delegating the EIA process to an external body are given.

Credible decision-making regarding the management of spent nuclear fuel -four key questions concerning the decision-making process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaaberger, T.

1995-01-01

The author starts by questioning the need for an EIA, since he sees a common attitude that the EIA is a tool for getting the community to accept the implementation of decisions that have already been made, and not a rational, organized way of achieving a basis for decision-making. A question of decisive importance for the relevancy of an EIA is whether (or not) the decisions already have been made, and the author points at indications which he believes support this view. Finally, arguments for delegating the EIA process to an external body are given

Revisiting Organizational Credibility and Organizational Reputation – A Situational Crisis Communication Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jamal Jamilah

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Organizational credibility, the extent of which an organization as the source of messages is perceived as trustworthy and reliable, is one important aspect to determine organization’s survival. The perceived credibility of the messages will either strengthen or worsen an organization reputation. The primary objective of this paper is to revisit the concept of organizational credibility and its interaction with organizational outcomes such as organizational reputation. Based on the situational crisis communication theory (SCCT, this paper focuses on the impact of organizational credibility on organizational reputation following a crisis. Even though the SCCT has been widely used in crisis communication research, the theory still has its own limitations in explaining factors that could potentially affect the reputation of an organization. This study proposes a model by integrating organizational credibility in the SCCT theoretical framework. Derived from the theoretical framework, three propositions are advanced to determine the relationships between organizational credibility with crisis responsibility and perceived organizational reputation. This paper contributes to further establishing the SCCT and posits key attributes in the organizational reputation processes..

Credibility and Crisis Stress Testing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Lian Ong

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Credibility is the bedrock of any crisis stress test. The use of stress tests to manage systemic risk was introduced by the U.S. authorities in 2009 in the form of the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program. Since then, supervisory authorities in other jurisdictions have also conducted similar exercises. In some of those cases, the design and implementation of certain elements of the framework have been criticized for their lack of credibility. This paper proposes a set of guidelines for constructing an effective crisis stress test. It combines financial markets impact studies of previous exercises with relevant case study information gleaned from those experiences to identify the key elements and to formulate their appropriate design. Pertinent concepts, issues and nuances particular to crisis stress testing are also discussed. The findings may be useful for country authorities seeking to include stress tests in their crisis management arsenal, as well as for the design of crisis programs.

Evidence for a neural correlate of a framing effect: bias-specific activity in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex during credibility judgments.

Science.gov (United States)

Deppe, M; Schwindt, W; Krämer, J; Kugel, H; Plassmann, H; Kenning, P; Ringelstein, E B

2005-11-15

Neural processes within the medial prefrontal cortex play a crucial role in assessing and integrating emotional and other implicit information during decision-making. Phylogenetically, it was important for the individual to assess the relevance of all kinds of environmental stimuli in order to adapt behavior in a flexible manner. Consequently, we can in principle not exclude that environmental information covertly influences the evaluation of actually decision relevant facts ("framing effect"). To test the hypothesis that the medial prefrontal cortex is involved into a framing effect we employed functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during a binary credibility judgment task. Twenty-one subjects were asked to judge 30 normalized news magazine headlines by forced answers as "true" or "false". To confound the judgments by formally irrelevant framing information we presented each of the headlines in four different news magazines characterized by varying credibility. For each subject the susceptibility to the judgment confounder (framing information) was assessed by magazine-specific modifications of the answers given. We could show that individual activity changes of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex during the judgments correlate with the degree of an individual's susceptibility to the framing information. We found (i) a neural correlate of a framing effect as postulated by behavioral decision theorists that (ii) reflects interindividual differences in the degree of the susceptibility to framing information.

Improving credibility evaluations on Wikipedia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lucassen, T.; Schmettow, Martin; Wiering, Caro H.; Pieters, Jules M.; Boer, Henk

2011-01-01

In this chapter, ongoing research on trust in Wikipedia is used as a case study to illustrate the design process of a support tool for Wikipedia, following the ASCE-model. This research is performed from a cognitive perspective and aims at users actively evaluating the credibility of information on

Data Credibility: A Perspective from Systematic Reviews in Environmental Management

Science.gov (United States)

Pullin, Andrew S.; Knight, Teri M.

2009-01-01

To use environmental program evaluation to increase effectiveness, predictive power, and resource allocation efficiency, evaluators need good data. Data require sufficient credibility in terms of fitness for purpose and quality to develop the necessary evidence base. The authors examine elements of data credibility using experience from critical…

The Importance of Being…Social? Instructor Credibility and the Millennials

Science.gov (United States)

Gerhardt, Megan W.

2016-01-01

Using the framework of generational identity, the current study explores how a range of characteristics impact Millennial perceptions of instructor credibility. Millennial Generation student ratings of the impact of competence, character, and sociability on instructor credibility were compared to faculty ratings of the same characteristics.…

Supporting Formulary Decisions: The Discovery of New Facts or Constructed Evidence?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul C Langley

2016-07-01

Full Text Available A critical question, given the growing importance of more targeted therapies to support personalized and precision medicine, is the credibility of the evidence base to support formulary decisions and pricing. On the one hand, for those who subscribe to the reference case model of the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE in the UK, the decision rests upon the creation of modeled or simulated imaginary worlds and the application of threshold willingness-to-pay cost-per-QALY thresholds. On the other hand, for those who subscribe to the standards of normal science, the decision rests upon the ability to evaluate competing claims, both clinical and cost-effective, in a timeframe that is meaningful to a formulary committee. If we subscribe to the scientific method where the focus is on the discovery of new facts, untestable claims for clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness, such as created claims for lifetime cost per-quality-adjusted discounted life years (QALYs, are properly relegated to the category of pseudoscience. We have no idea, and will never know, whether the claims are right or even if they are wrong. If formulary decisions are to respect the standards of normal science then there has to be a commitment to claims evaluation. A willingness to accept new products provisionally, subject to an agreed protocol to support the evaluation of clinical and cost-effectiveness claims. This dichotomy between the standards of normal science and pseudoscience is explored in the context of published claims for cost-effectiveness and recommendations for product pricing in the US.   Type: Commentary

The use of tags and tag clouds to discern credible content in online health message forums.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Grady, Laura; Wathen, C Nadine; Charnaw-Burger, Jill; Betel, Lisa; Shachak, Aviv; Luke, Robert; Hockema, Stephen; Jadad, Alejandro R

2012-01-01

Web sites with health-oriented content are potentially harmful if inaccurate or inappropriate medical information is used to make health-related decisions. Checklists, rating systems and guidelines have been developed to help people determine what is credible, but recent Internet technologies emphasize applications that are collaborative in nature, including tags and tag clouds, where site users 'tag' or label online content, each using their own labelling system. Concepts such as the date, reference, author, testimonial and quotations are considered predictors of credible content. An understanding of these descriptive tools, how they relate to the depiction of credibility and how this relates to overall efforts to label data in relation to the semantic web has yet to emerge. This study investigates how structured (pre-determined) and unstructured (user-generated) tags and tag clouds with a multiple word search feature are used by participants to assess credibility of messages posted in online message forums. The targeted respondents were those using web sites message forums for disease self-management. We also explored the relevancy of our findings to the labelling or indexing of data in the context of the semantic web. Diabetes was chosen as the content area in this study, since (a) this is a condition with increasing prevalence and (b) diabetics have been shown to actively use the Internet to manage their condition. From January to March 2010 participants were recruited using purposive sampling techniques. A screening instrument was used to determine eligibility. The study consisted of a demographic and computer usage survey, a series of usability tests and an interview. We tested participants (N=22) on two scenarios, each involving tasks that assessed their ability to tag content and search using a tag cloud that included six structured credibility terms (statistics, date, reference, author, testimonial and quotations). MORAE Usability software (version 3

Credible knowledge: A pilot evaluation of a modified GRADE method using parent-implemented interventions for children with autism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Perry Adrienne

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision-making in child and youth mental health (CYMH care requires recommendations that are developed through an efficient and effective method and are based on credible knowledge. Credible knowledge is informed by two sources: scientific evidence, and practice-based evidence, that reflects the "real world" experience of service providers. Current approaches to developing these recommendations in relation to CYMH will typically include evidence from one source or the other but do not have an objective method to combine the two. To this end, a modified version of the Grading Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE approach was pilot-tested, a novel method for the CYMH field. Methods GRADE has an explicit methodology that relies on input from scientific evidence as well as a panel of experts. The panel established the quality of evidence and derived detailed recommendations regarding the organization and delivery of mental health care for children and youth or their caregivers. In this study a modified GRADE method was used to provide precise recommendations based on a specific CYMH question (i.e. What is the current credible knowledge concerning the effects of parent-implemented, early intervention with their autistic children?. Results Overall, it appeared that early, parent-implemented interventions for autism result in positive effects that outweigh any undesirable effects. However, as opposed to overall recommendations, the heterogeneity of the evidence required that recommendations be specific to particular interventions, based on the questions of whether the benefits of a particular intervention outweighs its harms. Conclusions This pilot project provided evidence that a modified GRADE method may be an effective and practical approach to making recommendations in CYMH, based on credible knowledge. Key strengths of the process included separating the assessments of the quality of the evidence and

Strategy to Increase U.S. Credibility

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Shanks, Wayne M

2006-01-01

...) National Security Strategy (NSS). The public's mistrust of the United States is born out of a widespread misunderstanding and mistrust of its policies and a lack of USG credibility especially in the Greater Middle East...

Marginality, Credibility, and Impression Management: The Asian Sociologist in America.

Science.gov (United States)

Unnithan, N. Prabha

1988-01-01

Relates personal experiences of a sociologist of Asian origin in an effort to illustrate problems inherent in the process of becoming accepted as an academic sociologist. Identifies important themes of marginality, credibility, and impression management. Points out ways in which the Asian sociologists can go about achieving credibility. (KO)

Untested assumptions: psychological research and credibility assessment in legal decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jane Herlihy

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Background: Trauma survivors often have to negotiate legal systems such as refugee status determination or the criminal justice system. Methods & results: We outline and discuss the contribution which research on trauma and related psychological processes can make to two particular areas of law where complex and difficult legal decisions must be made: in claims for refugee and humanitarian protection, and in reporting and prosecuting sexual assault in the criminal justice system. Conclusion: There is a breadth of psychological knowledge that, if correctly applied, would limit the inappropriate reliance on assumptions and myth in legal decision-making in these settings. Specific recommendations are made for further study.

The effects of stakeholder involvement on perceptions of an evaluation's credibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobson, Miriam R; Azzam, Tarek

2018-06-01

This article presents a study of the effects of stakeholder involvement on perceptions of an evaluation's credibility. Crowdsourced members of the public and a group of educational administrators read a description of a hypothetical program and two evaluations of the program: one conducted by a researcher and one conducted by program staff (i.e. program stakeholders). Study participants were randomly assigned versions of the scenario with different levels of stakeholder credibility and types of findings. Results showed that both samples perceived the researcher's evaluation findings to be more credible than the program staff's, but that this difference was significantly reduced when the program staff were described to be highly credible. The article concludes with implications for theory and research on evaluation dissemination and stakeholder involvement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risky Business: Communicating with Credibility

Science.gov (United States)

Greenberger, Leonard S.

2011-01-01

In hostile situations, a communicator's goal is to establish and maintain trust and credibility with the audience. School business officials need the special skills and techniques of what's known as "risk communication." Few people are natural risk communicators. Those who do it well honed their skills over many years spent in hostile…

Use of Credibility Heuristics in a Social Question-Answering Service

Science.gov (United States)

Matthews, Paul

2015-01-01

Introduction: This study looked at the effect of community peripheral cues (specifically voting score and answerer's reputation) on the user's credibility rating of answers. Method: Students in technology and philosophy were asked to assess the credibility of answers to questions posted on a social question-answering platform. Through the use of a…

Revisiting Organizational Credibility and Organizational Reputation – A Situational Crisis Communication Approach

OpenAIRE

Jamal Jamilah; Abu Bakar Hassan

2017-01-01

Organizational credibility, the extent of which an organization as the source of messages is perceived as trustworthy and reliable, is one important aspect to determine organization’s survival. The perceived credibility of the messages will either strengthen or worsen an organization reputation. The primary objective of this paper is to revisit the concept of organizational credibility and its interaction with organizational outcomes such as organizational reputation. Based on the situational...

International Conference on Optimization and Decision Science

CERN Document Server

Sterle, Claudio

2017-01-01

This proceedings volume highlights the state-of-the-art knowledge related to optimization, decisions science and problem solving methods, as well as their application in industrial and territorial systems. It includes contributions tackling these themes using models and methods based on continuous and discrete optimization, network optimization, simulation and system dynamics, heuristics, metaheuristics, artificial intelligence, analytics, and also multiple-criteria decision making. The number and the increasing size of the problems arising in real life require mathematical models and solution methods adequate to their complexity. There has also been increasing research interest in Big Data and related challenges. These challenges can be recognized in many fields and systems which have a significant impact on our way of living: design, management and control of industrial production of goods and services; transportation planning and traffic management in urban and regional areas; energy production and exploit...

Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

Science.gov (United States)

Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Runge, Michael C.; Thompson, Frank R.; McNulty, Steven; Cleaves, David; Tomosy, Monica; Fisher, Larry A.; Andrew, Bliss

2012-01-01

Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring the preferred alternative with adaptive management feedbacks. We list a wide array of models, techniques, and tools available for each stage, and provide three case studies of their selected use in National Forest land management and project plans. Successful use of SDM involves participation by decision-makers, analysts, scientists, and stakeholders. We suggest specific areas for training and instituting SDM to foster transparency, rigor, clarity, and inclusiveness in formal decision processes regarding management of national forests.

Establishing model credibility involves more than validation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchner, T.

1991-01-01

One widely used definition of validation is that the quantitative test of the performance of a model through the comparison of model predictions to independent sets of observations from the system being simulated. The ability to show that the model predictions compare well with observations is often thought to be the most rigorous test that can be used to establish credibility for a model in the scientific community. However, such tests are only part of the process used to establish credibility, and in some cases may be either unnecessary or misleading. Naylor and Finger extended the concept of validation to include the establishment of validity for the postulates embodied in the model and the test of assumptions used to select postulates for the model. Validity of postulates is established through concurrence by experts in the field of study that the mathematical or conceptual model contains the structural components and mathematical relationships necessary to adequately represent the system with respect to the goals for the model. This extended definition of validation provides for consideration of the structure of the model, not just its performance, in establishing credibility. Evaluation of a simulation model should establish the correctness of the code and the efficacy of the model within its domain of applicability. (24 refs., 6 figs.)

Informing Science (IS and Science and Technology Studies (STS: The University as Decision Center (DC for Teaching Interdisciplinary Research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teresa Castelao-Lawless

2001-01-01

Full Text Available Students of history and philosophy of science courses at my University are either naïve robust realists or naïve relativists in relation to science and technology. The first group absorbs from culture stereotypical conceptions, such as the value-free character of the scientific method, that science and technology are impervious to history or ideology, and that science and religion are always at odds. The second believes science and technology were selected arbitrarily by ideologues to have privileged world views of reality to the detriment of other interpretations. These deterministic outlooks must be challenged to make students aware of the social importance of their future roles, be they as scientists and engineers or as science and technology policy decision makers. The University as Decision Center (DC not only reproduces the social by teaching standard solutions to well-defined problems but also provides information regarding conflict resolution and the epistemological, individual, historical, social, and political mechanisms that help create new science and technology. Interdisciplinary research prepares students for roles that require science and technology literacy, but raises methodological issues in the context of the classroom as it increases uncertainty with respect to apparently self-evident beliefs about scientific and technological practices.

Credibility and Consumer Behavior of Islamic Bank in Indonesia: A Literature Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naufal BACHRI

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The concept “credibility” has become significant attention from academics and practitioners because it played an important role in creating and maintaining consumer behavior. This study uses twenty- seven references relates to credibility, customer value, satisfaction, and loyalty. Several studies have discussed the relationship between credibility and consumer behavior and also elaborated dimensions of credibility. It also presented the shortcomings of current research and the trends for future study in Islamic banking.

Uncertainty quantification's role in modeling and simulation planning, and credibility assessment through the predictive capability maturity model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rider, William J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Witkowski, Walter R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mousseau, Vincent Andrew [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2016-04-13

The importance of credible, trustworthy numerical simulations is obvious especially when using the results for making high-consequence decisions. Determining the credibility of such numerical predictions is much more difficult and requires a systematic approach to assessing predictive capability, associated uncertainties and overall confidence in the computational simulation process for the intended use of the model. This process begins with an evaluation of the computational modeling of the identified, important physics of the simulation for its intended use. This is commonly done through a Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRT). Then an assessment of the evidence basis supporting the ability to computationally simulate these physics can be performed using various frameworks such as the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM). There were several critical activities that follow in the areas of code and solution verification, validation and uncertainty quantification, which will be described in detail in the following sections. Here, we introduce the subject matter for general applications but specifics are given for the failure prediction project. In addition, the first task that must be completed in the verification & validation procedure is to perform a credibility assessment to fully understand the requirements and limitations of the current computational simulation capability for the specific application intended use. The PIRT and PCMM are tools used at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to provide a consistent manner to perform such an assessment. Ideally, all stakeholders should be represented and contribute to perform an accurate credibility assessment. PIRTs and PCMMs are both described in brief detail below and the resulting assessments for an example project are given.

When decision heuristics and science collide.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Erica C; Sprenger, Amber M; Thomas, Rick P; Dougherty, Michael R

2014-04-01

The ongoing discussion among scientists about null-hypothesis significance testing and Bayesian data analysis has led to speculation about the practices and consequences of "researcher degrees of freedom." This article advances this debate by asking the broader questions that we, as scientists, should be asking: How do scientists make decisions in the course of doing research, and what is the impact of these decisions on scientific conclusions? We asked practicing scientists to collect data in a simulated research environment, and our findings show that some scientists use data collection heuristics that deviate from prescribed methodology. Monte Carlo simulations show that data collection heuristics based on p values lead to biases in estimated effect sizes and Bayes factors and to increases in both false-positive and false-negative rates, depending on the specific heuristic. We also show that using Bayesian data collection methods does not eliminate these biases. Thus, our study highlights the little appreciated fact that the process of doing science is a behavioral endeavor that can bias statistical description and inference in a manner that transcends adherence to any particular statistical framework.

Decision Sciences, Economics, Finance, Business, Computing, and Big Data: Connections

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

2018-01-01

textabstractThis paper provides a review of some connecting literature in Decision Sciences, Economics, Finance, Business, Computing, and Big Data. We then discuss some research that is related to the six cognate disciplines. Academics could develop theoretical models and subsequent

Science Teacher Decision-Making in a Climate of Heightened Accountability: A Rhizomatic Case Study Analysis of Two Science Departments in New York City

Science.gov (United States)

Purohit, Kiran Dilip

Secondary science teachers make many daily decisions in the enactment of curriculum. Although curriculum materials are widely available to address science content, practices, and skills, the consideration that goes into deciding how and whether to use such materials is complicated by teachers' beliefs about science, their understandings of school-level accountability and testing measures, and their perspectives on the adolescent students they teach. This study addresses the need to understand how teachers consider multiple forces in their enactment of science curriculum. The purpose of this study was to explore the ways that discourses around accountability, science, and science education emerge in the narratives around teachers' decision-making in secondary science classrooms. Using a case study approach, I worked at two school sites with two pairs of science teachers. We established criteria for critical incidents together, then teachers identified critical decision-making moments in their classrooms. We analyzed those incidents together using a consultancy protocol, allowing teachers to focus their thinking on reframing the incidents and imagining other possible outcomes. Using post-structuralist rhizomatics, I assembled analyses of teachers' discussions of the critical incidents in the form of dramatization--scenes and monologues. I then developed two major interpretive strands. First, I connected teachers' sense of having "no time" to blocs of affect tied to larger discourses of national security, teacher accountability, and the joy of scientific discovery. Second, I demonstrated how teachers' concern in following logical pathways and sequences in science relates to the imposition of accountability measures that echo the outcomes-driven logic of the learning sciences. Across both interpretations, I found accountability to be complex, multidirectional, and unpredictable in how it works on and through teachers as they make decisions. Research in this area has

Credibility and the media as a political institution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ørsten, Mark; Burkal, Rasmus

2014-01-01

of credibility in Danish news media. Credibility is defined at an institutional level by two dimensions: A) the accuracy and reliability of the news stories featured in leading Danish news media, and B) journalists’ knowledge and understanding of the Danish code of press ethics. The results show that sources...... only find objective errors in 14.1% of the news stories, which is a lower figure than most other studies report. The results also show that Danish journalists find bad press ethics to be an increasing problem and attribute this problem to increased pressure in the newsroom....

Credibility improves topical blog post retrieval

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weerkamp, W.; de Rijke, M.

2008-01-01

Topical blog post retrieval is the task of ranking blog posts with respect to their relevance for a given topic. To improve topical blog post retrieval we incorporate textual credibility indicators in the retrieval process. We consider two groups of indicators: post level (determined using

The emotional child witness: effects on juror decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Alexia; Quas, Jodi A; Cleveland, Kyndra C

2014-01-01

Despite wide variations in child witness behavior while on the stand, little research has focused on how that behavior influences jurors' perceptions of the child's credibility or the case itself. In the current study, the impact of a child's emotional displays on credibility judgments and verdict preferences was examined in jury-eligible college students and jurors released from jury duty. No significant differences emerged in perceptions or verdicts based on whether a child was shown as crying or not while participants read a transcript of the child's testimony. However, participants who rated the child as more emotional (regardless of whether the image showed a crying child) were more likely to render guilty verdicts, were more certain of guilt, and found the child more credible and the defendant less credible than participants who rated the child as less emotional. Also, when the child was perceived as low in emotion, older children were rated as less credible than younger children. The results have implications for understanding how children's emotional displays and jurors' perceptions of children's emotionality influence decisions in sexual abuse cases. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Credibility of Fiscal Rules Policy and Business Cycle Volatility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kuncoro Haryo

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is two-fold; first, it studies the impact of the credibility of fiscal rule policy on the stability of output growth; second, it compares the effectiveness of fiscal rule policy to discretionary and automatic stabilizer fiscal policies to address the fluctuation of output growth. Employing quarterly data over the period 2001-2013 in the case of Indonesia, we obtain that the credible debt rule leads to a decrease in the volatility of output growth while the non-credible deficit rule does not have any effect. Both unsystematic and systematic components of discretionary fiscal policy have a stabilizing function. Interestingly, the automatic stabilization tends to induce the volatility of output growth. Given those results, we infer that government spending is not a good automatic stabilizer. It seems that the lower ratio of government expenditure to GDP along with improving credibility of deficit rule policy has a smoother effect on the economy. Therefore, they implicitly support expenditure cuts when implementing fiscal adjustment with the purpose of reaching fiscal sustainability in the short-run and a stable economic growth in the long-run.

Naturalistic decision making in forensic science: toward a better understanding of decision making by forensic team leaders.

Science.gov (United States)

Helsloot, Ira; Groenendaal, Jelle

2011-07-01

This study uses the naturalistic decision-making (NDM) perspective to examine how Dutch forensic team leaders (i.e., the officers in charge of criminal forensic research from the crime scene until the use of laboratory assistance) make decisions in real-life settings and identifies the contextual factors that might influence those decisions. First, a focus group interview was conducted to identify four NDM mechanisms in day-to-day forensic decision making. Second, a serious game was conducted to examine the influence of three of these contextual mechanisms. The results uncovered that forensic team leaders (i) were attracted to obtain further information when more information was initially made available, (ii) were likely to devote more attention to emotionally charged cases, and (iii) used not only forensic evidence in the decision making but also tactical, unverified information of the police inquiry. Interestingly, the measured contextual influences did not deviate significantly from a control group of laypeople. © 2011 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

How to recover credibility of nuclear technologies in Japan where people wish to have 'Anshin'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yasui, Itaru

2014-01-01

Although it is inevitable to recover credibility of utilities, there are no clear ways to realize a final target yet. Credibility issue is a very difficult especially in Japan, where the word of 'Anshin' has special importance in the mind of people. In this paper, the word of 'Anshin' in Japan was discussed in order to find out differences in other countries by comparison of culture and customs, especially ways to prepare food, i.e. agriculture and hunting and gathering and so on. The meanings of 'Anshin' were decomposed into several elements, and each element was discussed and clarified. Human factor is important in both operation of plants and risk communication. The philosophy and attitude of COE of utilities are those of very important factors to regain credibility. The utilities' responsibilities are important, but not enough by themselves. In order to assure transparency of information used in risk communication, improvement of people's scientific literacy and their attitude to elect their representatives are absolutely necessary. Especially, risk information related to Level 3 RPA to be opened to public have to be fully transparent. Risk is one of most difficult concept for Japanese people to handle. The reoperation issue of nuclear power plants will involve several difficulties, but challenges to overcome this issue will be a good chance to change a way of decision making in Japan. (author)

Distinguishing values from science in decision making: Setting harvest quotas for mountain lions in Montana

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, Michael S.; Cooley, Hilary; Gude, Justin A.; Kolbe, Jay; Nowak, J. Joshua; Proffitt, Kelly M.; Sells, Sarah N.; Thompson, Mike

2018-01-01

The relative roles of science and human values can be difficult to distinguish when informal processes are used to make complex and contentious decisions in wildlife management. Structured Decision Making (SDM) offers a formal process for making such decisions, where scientific results and concepts can be disentangled from the values of differing stakeholders. We used SDM to formally integrate science and human values for a citizen working group of ungulate hunting advocates, lion hunting advocates, and outfitters convened to address the contentious allocation of harvest quotas for mountain lions (Puma concolor) in west‐central Montana, USA, during 2014. A science team consisting of mountain lion biologists and population ecologists convened to support the working group. The science team used integrated population models that incorporated 4 estimates of mountain lion density to estimate population trajectories for 5 alternative harvest quotas developed by the working group. Results of the modeling predicted that effects of each harvest quota were consistent across the 4 density estimates; harvest quotas affected predicted population trajectories for 5 years after implementation but differences were not strong. Based on these results, the focus of the working group changed to differences in values among stakeholders that were the true impediment to allocating harvest quotas. By distinguishing roles of science and human values in this process, the working group was able to collaboratively recommend a compromise solution. This solution differed little from the status quo that had been the focus of debate, but the SDM process produced understanding and buy‐in among stakeholders involved, reducing disagreements, misunderstanding, and unproductive arguments founded on informal application of scientific data and concepts. Whereas investments involved in conducting SDM may be unnecessary for many decisions in wildlife management, the investment may be beneficial for

Establishing credibility in the environmental models used for safety and licensing calculations in the nuclear industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, P.A.

1997-01-01

Models that simulate the transport and behaviour of radionuclides in the environment are used extensively in the nuclear industry for safety and licensing purposes. They are needed to calculate derived release limits for new and operating facilities, to estimate consequences following hypothetical accidents and to help manage a real emergency. But predictions generated for these purposes are essentially meaningless unless they are accompanied by a quantitative estimate of the confidence that can be placed in them. For example, in an emergency where there has been an accidental release of radioactivity to the atmosphere, decisions based on a validated model with small uncertainties would likely be very different from those based on an untested model, or on one with large uncertainties. This paper begins with a discussion of some general methods for establishing the credibility of model predictions. The focus will be on environmental transport models but the principles apply to models of all kinds. Establishing the credibility of a model is not a trivial task, It involves a number of tasks including face validation, verification, experimental validation and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. The remainder of the paper will present quantitative results relating to the credibility of environmental transport models. Model formation, choice of parameter values and the influence of the user will all be discussed as sources of uncertainty in predictions. The magnitude of uncertainties that must be expected in various applications of the models will be presented. The examples used throughout the paper are drawn largely from recent work carried out in BIOMOVS and VAMP. (DM)

Establishing Credibility in the Multicultural Classroom: When the Instructor Speaks with an Accent

Science.gov (United States)

McLean, Chikako Akamatsu

2007-01-01

Applying theories of cultural dimensions, teacher credibility, and nonverbal immediacy, this chapter explores classroom management techniques used by Asian female teachers to establish credibility. (Contains 1 note.)

Canada's imminent decision on nuclear fuel management: decision making at the intersection of science, politics, and society

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Isaacs, T. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California (United States)

2005-07-01

This paper outlines the science, politics and the decision making process in implementing a nuclear fuel management program. It discusses the issues in the light of Canada's imminent decision on nuclear fuel management. The paper discusses the technical as well as the institutional challenge in nuclear waste management. It discusses some of the key elements of the Canadian approach and concludes with some key recommendation in the way forward.

Development of a Severe Accident Mitigation Support with Speediness and Credibility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hur, Sup; Park, Jae Chang; Choi, Jong Gyun; Kim, Jung Taek; Kim, Chang Hwoi

2014-01-01

This study suggests a methodology of severe accident mitigation support with speediness and credibility. Using this methodology, the severe accident is automatically identified based on the information credibility check. And then, proper mitigation function, available mitigation routes, and an optimal mitigation path are automatically suggested. The basic logic of the information credibility is based on environmental evaluation, historical evaluation and some conventional methods such as redundancy and diversity comparison of instruments. To identify the available mitigation routes, availability of paths and components, source status, process limitation, expected adverse effect, and mitigation capability of the path are automatically were evaluated. Among the available routes, the optimal mitigation path was finally suggested based on the path priority criteria and physical relationship

8 CFR 1208.30 - Credible fear determinations involving stowaways and applicants for admission found inadmissible...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 8 Aliens and Nationality 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Credible fear determinations involving..., DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE IMMIGRATION REGULATIONS PROCEDURES FOR ASYLUM AND WITHHOLDING OF REMOVAL Credible Fear of Persecution § 1208.30 Credible fear determinations involving stowaways and applicants for...

Risk communication, geoethics and decision science issues in Japan's disaster management system

Science.gov (United States)

Sugimoto, M.

2014-12-01

Issues in Japan's disaster management system were revealed by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, and by the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station accident. Many important decisions were based on scientific data, but appear not to have sufficiently considered the uncertainties of the data and the societal aspects of the problems. The issues that arose show the need for scientists to appropriately deal with risk communication and geoethics and issues. This paper discusses necessity of　education for risk communication, geoethics and decisions science in school before students become sicentific decision makers in future.

[The concept of complementary and alternative medicine from the perspective of the philosophy of science and bioethics].

Science.gov (United States)

Schöne-Seifert, Bettina; Reichardt, Jan-Ole; Friedrich, Daniel R; Hucklenbroich, Peter

2015-01-01

Decisions about therapeutic interventions to be made by physicians, patients, and healthcare purchasers essentially depend on their classification in a credible context of justification, especially in a world dominated by contradicting experts. To some extent, this framing is done by sorting terms and their undertones, including the case of so-called CAM measures. In this paper, the authors reflect on ways to deal with the term CAM and the underlying supply-side approaches to healthcare from a primarily science-oriented perspective. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Design decisions from the history of the EUVE science payload

Science.gov (United States)

Marchant, W.

1993-01-01

Some of the design issues that arose during the development of the EUVE science payload and solutions to the problems involved are examined. In particular, attention is given to the use of parallel and serial busses, the selection of the the ROM approach for software storage and execution, implementation of memory error detection and correction, and the selection of command structures. The early design decisions paid off in the timely delivery of the scientific payload and in the successful completion of the survey phase of the EUVE science mission.

Consider the source: persuasion of implicit evaluations is moderated by source credibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Colin Tucker; De Houwer, Jan; Nosek, Brian A

2013-02-01

The long history of persuasion research shows how to change explicit, self-reported evaluations through direct appeals. At the same time, research on how to change implicit evaluations has focused almost entirely on techniques of retraining existing evaluations or manipulating contexts. In five studies, we examined whether direct appeals can change implicit evaluations in the same way as they do explicit evaluations. In five studies, both explicit and implicit evaluations showed greater evidence of persuasion following information presented by a highly credible source than a source low in credibility. Whereas cognitive load did not alter the effect of source credibility on explicit evaluations, source credibility had an effect on the persuasion of implicit evaluations only when participants were encouraged and able to consider information about the source. Our findings reveal the relevance of persuasion research for changing implicit evaluations and provide new ideas about the processes underlying both types of evaluation.

U.S. EPA. 2000. Science Policy Council Handbook: Peer Review

Science.gov (United States)

The goal of the Peer Review Policy and this Handbook is to enhance the quality and credibility of Agency decisions by ensuring that the scientific and technical work products underlying these decisions receive appropriate levels of peer review by independe

Nuclear regulatory decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wieland, Patricia; Almeida, Ivan Pedro Salati de

2011-01-01

The scientific considerations upon which the nuclear regulations are based provide objective criteria for decisions on nuclear safety matters. However, the decisions that a regulatory agency takes go far beyond granting or not an operating license based on assessment of compliance. It may involve decisions about hiring experts or research, appeals, responses to other government agencies, international agreements, etc.. In all cases, top management of the regulatory agency should hear and decide the best balance between the benefits of regulatory action and undue risks and other associated impacts that may arise, including issues of credibility and reputation. The establishment of a decision framework based on well established principles and criteria ensures performance stability and consistency, preventing individual subjectivity. This article analyzes the challenges to the decision-making by regulatory agencies to ensure coherence and consistency in decisions, even in situations where there is uncertainty, lack of reliable information and even divergence of opinions among experts. The article explores the basic elements for a framework for regulatory decision-making. (author)

Effects of message repetition and negativity on credibility judgments and political attitudes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ernst, N.; Kühne, R.; Wirth, W.

2017-01-01

Research on the truth effect has demonstrated that statements are rated as more credible when they are repeatedly presented. However, current research indicates that there are limits to the truth effect and that too many repetitions can decrease message credibility. This study investigates whether

Good science, bad science: Questioning research practices in psychological research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, M.

2014-01-01

In this dissertation we have questioned the current research practices in psychological science and thereby contributed to the current discussion about the credibility of psychological research. We specially focused on the problems with the reporting of statistical results and showed that reporting

Famous North American wolves and the credibility of early wildlife literature

Science.gov (United States)

Gipson, P.S.; Ballard, W.B.; Nowak, R.M.

1999-01-01

We evaluated the credibility of early literature about famous North American wolves (Canis lupus). Many famous wolves were reported to be older than they actually were, and we estimated they did not live long enough to have caused purported damage to livestock and game animals. Wolf kill rates on free-ranging livestock appeared to be inflated compared to recently published kill rates on native ungulates and livestock. Surplus killing of sheep and goats may have accounted for some high kill rates, but surplus killing of free-ranging longhorn cattle probably did not occur. Some famous wolves may actually have been dogs (C. familiaris), wolf-dog hybrids, or possibly coyote (C. latrans)-dog hybrids. We documented instances where early authors appeared to embellish or fabricate information about famous wolves. Caution should be exercised when using early literature about wolves as a basis for wolf management decisions.

A Decision Support Framework for Science-Based, Multi-Stakeholder Deliberation: A Coral Reef Example

Science.gov (United States)

Rehr, Amanda P.; Small, Mitchell J.; Bradley, Patricia; Fisher, William S.; Vega, Ann; Black, Kelly; Stockton, Tom

2012-12-01

We present a decision support framework for science-based assessment and multi-stakeholder deliberation. The framework consists of two parts: a DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses) analysis to identify the important causal relationships among anthropogenic environmental stressors, processes, and outcomes; and a Decision Landscape analysis to depict the legal, social, and institutional dimensions of environmental decisions. The Decision Landscape incorporates interactions among government agencies, regulated businesses, non-government organizations, and other stakeholders. It also identifies where scientific information regarding environmental processes is collected and transmitted to improve knowledge about elements of the DPSIR and to improve the scientific basis for decisions. Our application of the decision support framework to coral reef protection and restoration in the Florida Keys focusing on anthropogenic stressors, such as wastewater, proved to be successful and offered several insights. Using information from a management plan, it was possible to capture the current state of the science with a DPSIR analysis as well as important decision options, decision makers and applicable laws with a the Decision Landscape analysis. A structured elicitation of values and beliefs conducted at a coral reef management workshop held in Key West, Florida provided a diversity of opinion and also indicated a prioritization of several environmental stressors affecting coral reef health. The integrated DPSIR/Decision landscape framework for the Florida Keys developed based on the elicited opinion and the DPSIR analysis can be used to inform management decisions, to reveal the role that further scientific information and research might play to populate the framework, and to facilitate better-informed agreement among participants.

Consumer Health Information Websites with High Visual Design Ratings Likely to Be also Highly Rated for Perceived Credibility. A Review of: Robins, D., Holmes, J., & Stansbury, M. (2010. Consumer health information on the web: The relationship of visual design and perceptions of credibility. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 61(1, 13-19.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kate Kelly

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Objective – To answer two research questions: 1 What is the relationship between the visual design of a consumer health information web site and perceptions of the credibility of information found on it? 2 Is there a relationship between brand recognition, visual design preference, and credibility judgments?Design – Qualitative (correlation of rating of response to stimulus and quantitative (credibility coding of participant commentsSetting – Not stated; assumed to be academic institutions in the United States.Subjects – Thirty-four participants over the age of 35 (34 for statistical power and age over 35 on the hypothesis that this age group is most likely to seek health information on the Internet.Methods – Screen shots of 31 consumer health information sites chosen from the results of a Google search using the term “consumer health information” were converted to slide format and shown to participants. The 31 sites included 12 of the top ranked consumer health information sites derived from three sources: the Consumer and Patient Health Information Section (CAPHIS of the Medical Library Association (MLA, the MLA itself, and Consumer Reports. Participants were read and shown a script explaining the process prior to being asked to view and rate the 31 sites. Participants were first shown a blank slide with a crosshair to focus attention. Then a stimulus slide was shown for 2.8 seconds. A blank black screen was shown while they determined their rating. Participants were first asked to rate the visual design and aesthetics of the 31 web sites using a rating scale of -4 to -1 for negative judgments and +1 to +4 for positive judgments. Then they were asked to remember why they had made positive or negative ratings and why some web sites were preferred to others. The process was repeated with the slides re-ordered, and participants were asked to rate the credibility of the sites using the same rating scales. Upon completion

The 'Thin film of gold': monetary rules and policy credibility

OpenAIRE

Niall Ferguson; Moritz Schularick

2012-01-01

This paper asks whether developing countries can reap credibility gains from submitting policy to a strict monetary rule. Following earlier work, we look at the gold standard era (1880-1914) as a "natural experiment" to test whether adoption of a rule-based monetary framework such as the gold standard increased policy credibility. On the basis of the largest possible dataset covering almost sixty independent and colonial borrowers in the London market, we challenge the traditional view that g...

Improving credibility and transparency of conservation impact evaluations through the partial identification approach.

Science.gov (United States)

McConnachie, Matthew M; Romero, Claudia; Ferraro, Paul J; van Wilgen, Brian W

2016-04-01

The fundamental challenge of evaluating the impact of conservation interventions is that researchers must estimate the difference between the outcome after an intervention occurred and what the outcome would have been without it (counterfactual). Because the counterfactual is unobservable, researchers must make an untestable assumption that some units (e.g., organisms or sites) that were not exposed to the intervention can be used as a surrogate for the counterfactual (control). The conventional approach is to make a point estimate (i.e., single number along with a confidence interval) of impact, using, for example, regression. Point estimates provide powerful conclusions, but in nonexperimental contexts they depend on strong assumptions about the counterfactual that often lack transparency and credibility. An alternative approach, called partial identification (PI), is to first estimate what the counterfactual bounds would be if the weakest possible assumptions were made. Then, one narrows the bounds by using stronger but credible assumptions based on an understanding of why units were selected for the intervention and how they might respond to it. We applied this approach and compared it with conventional approaches by estimating the impact of a conservation program that removed invasive trees in part of the Cape Floristic Region. Even when we used our largest PI impact estimate, the program's control costs were 1.4 times higher than previously estimated. PI holds promise for applications in conservation science because it encourages researchers to better understand and account for treatment selection biases; can offer insights into the plausibility of conventional point-estimate approaches; could reduce the problem of advocacy in science; might be easier for stakeholders to agree on a bounded estimate than a point estimate where impacts are contentious; and requires only basic arithmetic skills. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Fire science application and integration in support of decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Tom Zimmerman

2011-01-01

Wildland fire management in the United States has historically been a challenging and complex program governed by a multitude of factors including situational status, objectives, operational capability, science and technology, and changes and advances in all these factors. The improvement and advancement of risk-informed decision making has the potential to improve...

Multicriteria and multiagent decision making with applications to economics and social sciences

CERN Document Server

Maturo, Antonio; Hošková-Mayerová, Šárka; Kacprzyk, Janusz

2013-01-01

The book provides a comprehensive and timely report on the topic of decision making and decision analysis in economics and the social sciences. The various contributions included in the book, selected using a peer review process, present important studies and research conducted in various countries around the globe. The majority of these studies are concerned with the analysis, modeling and formalization of the behavior of groups or committees that are in charge of making decisions of social and economic importance. Decisions in these contexts have to meet precise coherence standards and achieve a significant degree of sharing, consensus and acceptance, even in uncertain and fuzzy environments. This necessitates the confluence of several research fields, such as foundations of social choice and decision making, mathematics, complexity, psychology, sociology and economics. A large spectrum of problems that may be encountered during decision making and decision analysis in the areas of economics and the social ...

Beyond the lab: observations on the process by which science successfully informs management and policy decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Flores, S.

2012-12-01

Scientific findings inform management decisions and policy products through various ways, these include: synthesis reports, white papers, in-person and web-based seminars (webinars), communication from specialized staff, and seminal peer-reviewed journal articles. Scientists are often told that if they want their science to inform management decisions and policy products that they must: clearly and simply articulate discreet pieces of scientific information and avoid attaching advocacy messages to the science; however, solely relying on these tenants does not ensure that scientific products will infuse the realms of management and policy. The process by which science successfully informs management decisions and policy products rarely begins at the time the results come out of the lab, but rather, before the research is carried out. Having an understanding of the political climate, management needs, agency research agendas, and funding limitations, as well as developing a working relationship with the intended managers and policy makers are key elements to developing the kind of science results and products that often make an impact in the management and policy world. In my presentation I will provide case-studies from California (USA) to highlight the type of coastal, ocean and climate science that has been successful in informing management decisions and policy documents, as well as provide a state-level agency perspective on the process by which this occurs.

Credible accident analyses for TRIGA and TRIGA-fueled reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hawley, S.C.; Kathren, R.L.

1982-04-01

Credible accidents were developed and analyzed for TRIGA and TRIGA-fueled reactors. The only potential for offsite exposure appears to be from a fuel-handling accident that, based on highly conservative assumptions, would result in dose equivalents of less than or equal to 1 mrem to the total body from noble gases and less than or equal to 1.2 rem to the thyroid from radioiodines. Credible accidents from excess reactivity insertions, metal-water reactions, lost, misplaced, or inadvertent experiments, core rearrangements, and changes in fuel morphology and ZrH/sub x/ composition are also evaluated, and suggestions for further study provided

Examining the Effect of Endorser Credibility on the Consumers' Buying Intentions: An Empirical Study in Turkey

OpenAIRE

Sertoglu, Aysegul Ermec; Catlı, Ozlem; Korkmaz, Sezer

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to test whether the source credibility affects buying intention and measure the perceived credibility differences between created spokesperson and celebrity endorser. The influence that endorser credibility dimensions (i.e. attractiveness, trustworthiness and expertise) have on purchase intentions of 326 young consumers has been examined. The results showed that all of the three credibility dimensions for both celebrity endorser and created spokesperson have a pos...

EXAMINING THE EFFECT OF ENDORSER CREDIBILITY ON THE CONSUMERS' BUYING INTENTIONS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY IN TURKEY

OpenAIRE

Aysegul Ermec Sertoglu; Ozlem Catli; Sezer Korkmaz

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to test whether the source credibility affects buying intention and measure the perceived credibility differences between created spokesperson and celebrity endorser. The influence that endorser credibility dimensions (i.e. attractiveness, trustworthiness and expertise) have on purchase intentions of 326 young consumers has been examined. The results showed that all of the three credibility dimensions for both celebrity endorser and created spokesperson have a pos...

Geospatial decision support systems for societal decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Bernknopf, R.L.

2005-01-01

While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the

Understanding decisions Latino students make regarding persistence in the science and math pipeline

Science.gov (United States)

Munro, Janet Lynn

This qualitative study focused on the knowledge and perceptions of Latino high school students, as well those of their parents and school personnel, at a southwestern, suburban high school regarding persistence in the math/science pipeline. In the context of the unique school and community setting these students experience, the decision-making process was examined with particular focus on characterizing the relationships that influence the process. While the theoretical framework that informs this study was that of social capital, its primary purpose was to inform the school's processes and policy in support of increased Latino participation in the math and science pipeline. Since course selection may be the most powerful factor affecting school achievement and college-preparedness, and since course selection is influenced by school policy, school personnel, students, parents, and teachers alike, it is important to understand the beliefs and perceptions that characterize the relationships among them. The qualitative research design involved a phenomenological study of nine Latino students, their parents, their teachers and counselors, and certain support personnel from the high school. The school's and community's environment in support of academic intensity served as context for the portrait that developed. Given rapidly changing demographics that bring more and more Latino students to suburban high schools, the persistent achievement gap experienced by Latino students, and the growing dependence of the world economy on a citizenry versed in the math- and science-related fields, a deeper understanding of the decision-making processes Latino 12 students experience can inform school policy as educators struggle to influence those decisions. This study revealed a striking lack of knowledge concerning the college-entrance ramifications of continued course work in math and science beyond that required for graduation, relationships among peers, parents, and school

Achieving Conservation Science that Bridges the Knowledge–Action Boundary

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, Carly N; Mascia, Michael B; Schwartz, Mark W; Possingham, Hugh P; Fuller, Richard A

2013-01-01

There are many barriers to using science to inform conservation policy and practice. Conservation scientists wishing to produce management-relevant science must balance this goal with the imperative of demonstrating novelty and rigor in their science. Decision makers seeking to make evidence-based decisions must balance a desire for knowledge with the need to act despite uncertainty. Generating science that will effectively inform management decisions requires that the production of information (the components of knowledge) be salient (relevant and timely), credible (authoritative, believable, and trusted), and legitimate (developed via a process that considers the values and perspectives of all relevant actors) in the eyes of both researchers and decision makers. We perceive 3 key challenges for those hoping to generate conservation science that achieves all 3 of these information characteristics. First, scientific and management audiences can have contrasting perceptions about the salience of research. Second, the pursuit of scientific credibility can come at the cost of salience and legitimacy in the eyes of decision makers, and, third, different actors can have conflicting views about what constitutes legitimate information. We highlight 4 institutional frameworks that can facilitate science that will inform management: boundary organizations (environmental organizations that span the boundary between science and management), research scientists embedded in resource management agencies, formal links between decision makers and scientists at research-focused institutions, and training programs for conservation professionals. Although these are not the only approaches to generating boundary-spanning science, nor are they mutually exclusive, they provide mechanisms for promoting communication, translation, and mediation across the knowledge–action boundary. We believe that despite the challenges, conservation science should strive to be a boundary science, which

In Your Facebook: Examining Facebook Usage as Misbehavior on Perceived Teacher Credibility

Science.gov (United States)

Hutchens, Jason S.; Hayes, Timothy

2014-01-01

Teachers sometimes do things that negatively impact their own credibility in classroom settings. One way instructors maintain credibility among students is by keeping a veil between their personal and professional personas. The advent of Facebook presents new challenges for instructors seeking to keep their personal lives private in order to…

Application of decision science to resilience management in Jamaica Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Eaton, Mitchell; Fuller, Angela K.; Johnson, Fred A.; Hare, M. P.; Stedman, Richard C.; Sanderson, E.W.; Solecki, W. D.; Waldman, J.R.; Paris, A. S.

2016-01-01

This book highlights the growing interest in management interventions designed to enhance the resilience of the Jamaica Bay socio-ecological system. Effective management, whether the focus is on managing biological processes or human behavior or (most likely) both, requires decision makers to anticipate how the managed system will respond to interventions (i.e., via predictions or projections). In systems characterized by many interacting components and high uncertainty, making probabilistic predictions is often difficult and requires careful thinking not only about system dynamics, but also about how management objectives are specified and the analytic method used to select the preferred action(s). Developing a clear statement of the problem(s) and articulation of management objectives is often best achieved by including input from managers, scientists and other stakeholders affected by the decision through a process of joint problem framing (Marcot and others 2012; Keeney and others 1990). Using a deliberate, coherent and transparent framework for deciding among management alternatives to best meet these objectives then ensures a greater likelihood for successful intervention. Decision science provides the theoretical and practical basis for developing this framework and applying decision analysis methods for making complex decisions under uncertainty and risk.

Nuclear regulatory decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

The fundamental objective of all nuclear safety regulatory bodies is to ensure that nuclear utilities operate their plants at all times in an acceptably safe manner. In meeting this objective, the regulatory body should strive to ensure that its regulatory decisions are technically sound, consistent from case to case, and timely. In addition, the regulator must be aware that its decisions and the circumstances surrounding those decisions can affect how its stakeholders, such as government policy makers, the industry it regulates, and the public, view it as an effective and credible regulator. In order to maintain the confidence of those stakeholders, the regulator should make sure that its decisions are transparent, have a clear basis in law and regulations, and are seen by impartial observers to be fair to all parties. Based on the work of a Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) expert group, this report discusses some of the basic principles and criteria that a regulatory body should consider in making decisions and describes the elements of an integrated framework for regulatory decision making. (author)

Establishing the credibility of qualitative research findings: the plot thickens.

Science.gov (United States)

Cutcliffe, J R; McKenna, H P

1999-08-01

Qualitative research is increasingly recognized and valued and its unique place in nursing research is highlighted by many. Despite this, some nurse researchers continue to raise epistemological issues about the problems of objectivity and the validity of qualitative research findings. This paper explores the issues relating to the representativeness or credibility of qualitative research findings. It therefore critiques the existing distinct philosophical and methodological positions concerning the trustworthiness of qualitative research findings, which are described as follows: quantitative studies should be judged using the same criteria and terminology as quantitative studies; it is impossible, in a meaningful way, for any criteria to be used to judge qualitative studies; qualitative studies should be judged using criteria that are developed for and fit the qualitative paradigm; and the credibility of qualitative research findings could be established by testing out the emerging theory by means of conducting a deductive quantitative study. The authors conclude by providing some guidelines for establishing the credibility of qualitative research findings.

The Influence of Peer Reviews on Source Credibility and Purchase Intention

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kristine L. Nowak

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Electronic Word of Mouth (eWOM is information shared on the Internet about a product, which allows people to receive information from others they may not otherwise encounter. Online product reviews are a type of eWOM where a user posts a comment about a product and selects an image to represent the self. The perception of the image and the text in the product review can influence source credibility and the perception of the product, as well as the likelihood that someone will purchase the product. This study examines the effect of the product reviews and their different images and text on perceived credibility, source trustworthiness and purchase intention. Consistent with predictions based on the information processing theory, perceived anthropomorphism influences perceived credibility, source trust, and purchase intention.

Decision boxes for clinicians to support evidence-based practice and shared decision making: the user experience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giguere Anik

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This project engages patients and physicians in the development of Decision Boxes, short clinical topic summaries covering medical questions that have no single best answer. Decision Boxes aim to prepare the clinician to communicate the risks and benefits of the available options to the patient so they can make an informed decision together. Methods Seven researchers (including four practicing family physicians selected 10 clinical topics relevant to primary care practice through a Delphi survey. We then developed two one-page prototypes on two of these topics: prostate cancer screening with the prostate-specific antigen test, and prenatal screening for trisomy 21 with the serum integrated test. We presented the prototypes to purposeful samples of family physicians distributed in two focus groups, and patients distributed in four focus groups. We used the User Experience Honeycomb to explore barriers and facilitators to the communication design used in Decision Boxes. All discussions were transcribed, and three researchers proceeded to thematic content analysis of the transcriptions. The coding scheme was first developed from the Honeycomb’s seven themes (valuable, usable, credible, useful, desirable, accessible, and findable, and included new themes suggested by the data. Prototypes were modified in light of our findings. Results Three rounds were necessary for a majority of researchers to select 10 clinical topics. Fifteen physicians and 33 patients participated in the focus groups. Following analyses, three sections were added to the Decision Boxes: introduction, patient counseling, and references. The information was spread to two pages to try to make the Decision Boxes less busy and improve users’ first impression. To try to improve credibility, we gave more visibility to the research institutions involved in development. A statement on the boxes’ purpose and a flow chart representing the shared decision

Credible enough? Forward guidance and perceived National Bank of Poland’s policy rule

OpenAIRE

Baranowski, Paweł; Gajewski, Paweł

2015-01-01

Credible forward guidance should bring down the perceived impact of macroeconomic variables on the interest rate. Using a micro-level dataset we test the perception of monetary policy in Poland among professional forecasters and find evidence for forward guidance credibility.

Credibility of the emotional witness: a study of ratings by court judges.

Science.gov (United States)

Wessel, Ellen; Drevland, Guri C B; Eilertsen, Dag Erik; Magnussen, Svein

2006-04-01

Previous studies have shown that the emotional behavior displayed during testimony may affect the perceived credibility of the witness. The present study compares credibility ratings by Norwegian court judges with those made by lay people. The participants viewed one of three video-recorded versions of a rape victim's statement, role played by a professional actress. The statement was given in a free-recall manner with one of three kinds of emotions displayed, termed congruent, neutral, and incongruent emotional expression. The results show that, in contrast to lay people, the credibility ratings of court judges and their votes for a guilty verdict were not influenced by the emotions displayed by the witness. Results are discussed in terms of professional expertise.

What does the new breed of decision-making methodologies mean for choices and norms in hydrological science?

Science.gov (United States)

Wikman-Svahn, Per

2013-04-01

Hydrological sciences are increasingly utilized in decision-making contexts that need to manage deep uncertainty, changing conditions and very long-lead times and lifetimes. Traditional optimizing approaches become problematic in such situations. For example, optimizing approaches may underestimate the importance of low probability outcomes, or very uncertain outcomes. Alternative decision-making strategies are therefore increasingly used in hydrological applications, including "bottom-up/top-down", "context-first", "decision-scaling", "assess risk of policy", "robust", "resilient" or "flexible" approaches. These kinds of strategies are typically designed to handle very uncertain and diverse outcomes, and often start from the particular decision-making context, in contrast to more traditional "predict-then-act" or "science first" approaches. Contemporary research in philosophy of science stress the influence of value judgments and norms in scientific assessments. In particular, this literature points out that implicit anticipated applications often influence choices made in scientific assessments. Furthermore, this literature also emphasize that choices made at within scientific assessments have consequences for decision-making later on. One reason is that it is often difficult for decision-makers to see what choices are made and the implications of these choices. Another reason is that information that could be of use for decision-makers are lost at an early stage. For example, the choice to focus on central estimates and not providing assessments on more unlikely outcomes is a choice that has consequences for what outcomes are taken into account in the decision-making process. This paper develops this argument and then analyzes the implications of these new developments for hydrological science. One implication of the increasing use of the new breed of planning strategies is that a broader range of uncertainty in scientific assessments becomes desirable in order

Linking science and decision making to promote an ecology for the city: practices and opportunities

Science.gov (United States)

Morgan Grove; Daniel L. Childers; Michael Galvin; Sarah J. Hines; Tischa Munoz-Erickson; Erika S. Svendsen

2016-01-01

To promote urban sustainability and resilience, there is an increasing demand for actionable science that links science and decision making based on social–ecological knowledge. Approaches, frameworks, and practices for such actionable science are needed and have only begun to emerge. We propose that approaches based on the co- design and co- production of knowledge...

Credible Phenomenological Research: A Mixed-Methods Study

Science.gov (United States)

Flynn, Stephen V.; Korcuska, James S.

2018-01-01

The authors conducted a 3-phase investigation into the credible standards for phenomenological research practices identified in the literature and endorsed by a sample of counselor education qualitative research experts. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, the findings offer evidence that professional counseling has a distinctive format in which…

Communication of Science Advice to Government.

Science.gov (United States)

Hutchings, Jeffrey A; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2016-01-01

There are various ways to construct good processes for soliciting and understanding science. Our critique of advisory models finds that a well-supported chief science advisor (CSA) best ensures the provision of deliberative, informal, and emergency advice to government. Alternatively, bias, increasingly manifest as science-based advocacy, can hinder communication, diminish credibility, and distort scientific evidence. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adults' decision-making about the electronic waste issue: The role of the nature of science conceptualizations and moral concerns in socio-scientific decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Yuqing

Socio-scientific issues have become increasingly important in Science-Technology-Society (STS) education as a means to make science learning more relevant to students' lives. This study used the e-waste issue as a context to investigate two aspects of socio-scientific decision-making: (1) the relationship between the nature of science (NOS) conceptualizations and decision-making; and (2) moral concerns involved in the process of decision-making. This study contributes to the field of socio-scientific issue research and STS education in the following ways. First, it is the first study that performed meta-analysis to seek the relationship between the NOS understanding and decision-making. This study concludes that valuable NOS conceptualizations that are highly related to the socio-scientific issue under investigation, rather than general NOS understanding, exert statistically significant influences on decision-making. Second, this study empirically examined the Multiple Responses Model (MRM), which enables the transfer of qualitative NOS responses into quantitative data, and hence, inferential statistics. The current study justifies the significance of unidimensionality to the application of the MRM. It addresses the limitations associated with the MRM and provides implications for future use of the MRM in other contexts. Finally, the study explores the role of moral concerns in socio-scientific decision-making. Eight participants engaged in interviews that were designed to elicit their reactions and feelings regarding the issue of exporting e-waste to poor countries. Qualitative analyses demonstrated that moral considerations were significant influences on decision-making. In addition, participants' action responses revealed that they were motivated to take action to help the environment. The study has implications for socio-scientific issue studies in other contexts and for teacher education programs that use socio-scientific issues to advance teachers' reasoning

Distribution system reliability evaluation using credibility theory

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Xufeng Xu, Joydeep Mitra

have found that credibility theory, which broadens the scope of fuzzy set theory, is an effective tool for representing fuzzy events, and have developed a theoretical .... Based on the status of switches, the distribution system can be divided into multiple SPSS, which are connected with tie switches. For example, SPSS.

Exposing therapists to trauma-focused treatment in psychosis: effects on credibility, expected burden, and harm expectancies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David P. G. van den Berg

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Despite robust empirical support for the efficacy of trauma-focused treatments, the dissemination proves difficult, especially in relation to patients with comorbid psychosis. Many therapists endorse negative beliefs about the credibility, burden, and harm of such treatment. Objective: This feasibility study explores the impact of specialized training on therapists’ beliefs about trauma-focused treatment within a randomized controlled trial. Method: Therapist-rated (n=16 credibility, expected burden, and harm expectancies of trauma-focused treatment were assessed at baseline, post-theoretical training, post-technical training, post-supervised practical training, and at 2-year follow-up. Credibility and burden beliefs of therapists concerning the treatment of every specific patient in the trial were also assessed. Results: Over time, therapist-rated credibility of trauma-focused treatment showed a significant increase, whereas therapists’ expected burden and harm expectancies decreased significantly. In treating posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD in patients with psychotic disorders (n=79, pre-treatment symptom severity was not associated with therapist-rated credibility or expected burden of that specific treatment. Treatment outcome had no influence on patient-specific credibility or burden expectancies of therapists. Conclusions: These findings support the notion that specialized training, including practical training with supervision, has long-term positive effects on therapists’ credibility, burden, and harm beliefs concerning trauma-focused treatment.

Time, science and consensus: the different times involving scientific research, political decision and public opinion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Aparecido de

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This essay analyses the asymmetrical relationship between the time of scientific research and the time of the different segments interested in their results, focusing mainly on necessity to establish technical consensus about the fields of science that require rigorous investigations and texts. In the last years, civil society sectors - mainly scientific journalism, legislative power, and public opinion - has shown growing interest in participating of the decision making process that regulates science routes. In this study, we analyzed the decision making process of the Biosafety Law, as it allows research with embryonic stem cells in Brazil. The results allow us to conclude that this asymmetrical relationship between the different times (of science, scientific disclosure, public opinion, and public power contribute to the maturing of the dialog on scientific policies, as well as to the establishment of a consensus concerning science routes, which aims at the democratization of scientific work.

A role of decision-making competency in science learning utilizing a social valuation framework

Science.gov (United States)

Katsuo, Akihito

2005-11-01

The role of decision-making in learning performance has been an occasional topic in the research literature in science education, but rarely has it been a central issue in the field. Nonetheless, recent studies regarding the topic in several fields other than education, such as cognitive neuroscience and social choice theory, indicate the fundamental importance(s) of the topic. This study focuses on a possible role of decision-making in science learning. Initially the study was designed to probe the decision-making ability of elementary school children with a modified version of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). The experiment involved six Montessori 3rd and 4th grade students as the experimental group and eight public school 3rd and 4th grade students as the control group. The result of the modified IGT revealed a tendency in choice trajectories favoring children at the Montessori school. However, the probabilistic value went below the statistically significant level set by the U test. A further study focused on the impact of better decision-making ability revealed in the first experiment on performances with a science learning module that emphasized collective reasoning. The instruction was based on a set of worksheets with multiple choices on which students were asked to make predictions with and to provide supportive arguments regarding outcomes of experiments introduced in the worksheet. Then the whole class was involved with a real experiment to see which choice was correct. The findings in the study indicated that the Montessori students often obtained higher scores than non-Montessori students in making decision with a tendency of consistency in terms of their choices of the alternatives on the worksheets. The findings of the experiments were supported by a correlational analysis that was performed at the end of study. Although no statistically significant correlations were found, there was a tendency for positively associative shifts between the scores of the

When Can Forensic Psychologists Comment on the Credibility of Criminal Defendants?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roberto Flores de Apodaca

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Forensic psychological examiners are often confronted with assessments in the guilt phase of criminal cases in which a Defendant denies his/her charged conduct, but the existing evidence clearly contradicts their account. This happens often in cases involving charges of violence, sex offending and or substance abuse (Langton, Barbaree, Harkins, Arenovich, McNamee & Peacock, 2008. What is the proper role of the examiner in such instances?; granting the benefit of the doubt and accepting the Defendant’s account, using the one contained in the differing evidence, or making an independent judgment about which is more likely to be true? Does accepting any version mean the expert is offering an opinion on the Ultimate Issue in the case, and encroaching on the role of the Trier of Fact? The Federal Rules of Evidence (FREE dictate that judgments about Ultimate Issues belong solely to the Trier of Fact, yet the DSM-5 Manual (APA, 2013 instructs us to consider Malingering in every forensic situation; i.e. is the Defendant being honest about his mental state, and by implication, his/her credibility?  Our recommendation is that examiners offer no opinions about which conflicting version in a criminal case is the more credible during the guilt phase, and instead, offer “if, then” assessments about a Defendant’s propensity for violence or sexual offending; i.e. if the charges are true, then s/he poses certain levels of risk going forward, for reasons detailed in the report. Such a stance avoids experts “taking sides” during the guilt phase of a case and allows them to fully inform the adversarial, legal process as it deliberates on possible Plea Bargains or Sentencing decisions. We argue that this impartial approach serves a useful function in legal proceedings while adhering to our Ethical Guidelines (APA, 2010.

The Montreal Protocol treaty and its illuminating history of science-policy decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Grady, C.

2017-12-01

The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, hailed as one of the most effective environmental treaties of all time, has a thirty year history of science-policy decision-making. The partnership between Parties to the Montreal Protocol and its technical assessment panels serve as a basis for understanding successes and evaluating stumbles of global environmental decision-making. Real-world environmental treaty negotiations can be highly time-sensitive, politically motivated, and resource constrained thus scientists and policymakers alike are often unable to confront the uncertainties associated with the multitude of choices. The science-policy relationship built within the framework of the Montreal Protocol has helped constrain uncertainty and inform policy decisions but has also highlighted the limitations of the use of scientific understanding in political decision-making. This talk will describe the evolution of the scientist-policymaker relationship over the history of the Montreal Protocol. Examples will illustrate how the Montreal Protocol's technical panels inform decisions of the country governments and will characterize different approaches pursued by different countries with a particular focus on the recently adopted Kigali Amendment. In addition, this talk will take a deeper dive with an analysis of the historic technical panel assessments on estimating financial resources necessary to enable compliance to the Montreal Protocol compared to the political financial decisions made through the Protocol's Multilateral Fund replenishment negotiation process. Finally, this talk will describe the useful lessons and challenges from these interactions and how they may be applicable in other environmental management frameworks across multiple scales under changing climatic conditions.

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

2013-01-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

Credibility of the Printed Media: The Swine Flu as a Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ksenija Žlof

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The issue of credibility becomes especially pronounced in times of crises, which characteristically abound in the unknown, uncertainty, and doubt. Such crises are mostly sudden, often complex, andsometimes mired in controversial events. The public subsequently craves more information in times of crises, such that they may obtain more precise guidance, and ease their ability to cope. Given the relatively low frequency of crisis situations, most people lack actual experience relevant to a given predicament. The appearance of Virus A (H1N1 at the onset of 2009 is one such case. Despite H1N1’s classification as a broad-scale, serious health hazard, preventive vaccinations failed to reach a large segment of the population. We contend that the lack of credibility in informing the public through the media contributed considerably to this failure. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to determine the level of credible information provided by the print media from which the general public could have taken an informed position on the crisis in question. Quantitative research and content analysis ascertained from a body of print media sources with national coverage reveals that the Croatian print media, contrary to our expectations, largely rely on official sources and transparently cite authors, which contributes to a higher degree of credibility. Yet further analysis of the number of sources suggests that most journalists used on average only one or no named sources, which significantly reduces the credibility of the published articles.

Methodology for identifying credible disruptions to isolation of nuclear waste within Columbia River basalts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, J.D.

1982-01-01

Analysis of potential preclosure and postclosure disruptive events and processes is comprised of evaluation of (1) potential uncertainties and omissions associated with characterization of the site; (2) credible events and processes resulting from the dynamics of natural systems; (3) potential, credible changes in isolation conditions induced by the presence of the repository, and (4) potential, credible future changes impacting isolation capability resulting from man's activities, independent of repository construction/operation. This report presents the overall methodology for identification, classification and analysis of disruptive events based on Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Environmental Protection Agency guidelines proposed in drafts of 10 CFR 60 and 40 CFR 191. Potential credible disruptive events, processes, and conditions are considered with respect to whether they are anticipated or unanticipated, and determined to have reasonably foreseeable, very unlikely, or extremely unlikely probability of occurrence. 85 refs., 2 figs., 7 tabs

Credible enough? Forward guidance and per-ceived National Bank of Poland’s policy rule

OpenAIRE

Pawel Baranowski; Pawel Gajewski

2015-01-01

Credible forward guidance should reduce the perceived impact of macroeconomic variables on the interest rate. Using a micro-level dataset we test the perception of monetary policy in Poland among professional forecasters and find evidence for forward guidance credibility.

Facebook versus Twitter: Which one is more credible in a South African context?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kim L. Viljoen

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Background: Studies conducted have shown that half of the South African population uses either or both Facebook and Twitter social networking sites for social satisfaction and for the evaluation of products and purchase decisions. This is a direct result of the continuous technological advancements worldwide and the permeative nature of social media. Objective: The focus of this study is to evaluate the credibility of Facebook and Twitter messages while establishing which of the mediums is perceived as more believable by consumers. The results of this research direct information technology practitioners, business managers, business owners, and marketing managers on the viability of these communication mediums. Method: A positivistic paradigm was used in this study through the use of a descriptive research design which consisted of a survey of 446 respondents located in East London, Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Respondents were either selected randomly or through convenience sampling and were between age 18 and 55. Results: It was established that both Facebook and Twitter are significantly related to the independent variable of ‘intention to purchase’, with Twitter having a stronger correlation with the independent variable than Facebook. The context of the study was set in relation to the purchase intention of specific mobile phone brands. Conclusion: Based on these results, it can be concluded that Twitter electronic word-of-mouth can be considered to be more credible than Facebook electronic word-of-mouth; thus this should be considered when advertising or promoting products via these mediums.

Information Literacy on the Web: How College Students Use Visual and Textual Cues to Assess Credibility on Health Websites

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katrina L. Pariera

2012-12-01

Full Text Available One of the most important literacy skills in today’s information society is the ability to determine the credibility of online information. Users sort through a staggering number of websites while discerning which will provide satisfactory information. In this study, 70 college students assessed the credibility of health websites with a low and high design quality, in either low or high credibility groups. The study’s purpose was to understand if students relied more on textual or visual cues in determining credibility, and to understand if this affected their recall of those cues later. The results indicate that when viewing a high credibility website, high design quality will bolster the credibility perception, but design quality will not compensate for a low credibility website. The recall test also indicated that credibility does impact the participants’ recall of visual and textual cues. Implications are discussed in light of the Elaboration Likelihood Model.

Lessons from COASST: How Does Citizen Science Contribute to Natural Resource Management & Decision-Making?

Science.gov (United States)

Metes, J.; Ballard, H. L.; Parrish, J.

2016-12-01

As many scholars and practitioners in the environmental field turn to citizen science to collect robust scientific data as well as engage with wider audiences, it is crucial to build a more complete understanding of how citizen science influences and affects different interests within a social-ecological system. This research investigates how federal, state, and tribal natural resource managers interact with data from the Coastal Observation & Seabird Survey Team (COASST) project—a citizen science program that trains participants to monitor species and abundance of beach-cast birds on the Pacific Northwest Coast. Fifteen coastal and fisheries managers who previously requested COASST data were interviewed about how and why they used data from the project and were asked to describe how information gained from COASST affected their management decisions. Results suggest that broadly, managers value and learn from the program's capacity to gather data spanning a wide spatial-temporal range. This contribution to baseline monitoring helps managers signal and track both short- and long-term environmental change. More specifically, managers use COASST data in conjunction with other professional monitoring programs, such as the National Marine Fisheries Observer Program, to build higher degrees of reliability into management decisions. Although managers offered diverse perspectives and experiences about what the role of citizen science in natural resource management generally should be, there was agreement that agencies on their own often lack personnel and funding required to sufficiently monitor many crucial resources. Additionally, managers strongly suggested that COASST and other citizen science projects increased public awareness and support for agency decision-making and policies, and indirect yet important contribution to natural resource management.

Enhancing Public Participation to Improve Natural Resources Science and its Use in Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Glynn, P. D.; Shapiro, C. D.; Liu, S. B.

2015-12-01

The need for broader understanding and involvement in science coupled with social technology advances enabling crowdsourcing and citizen science have created greater opportunities for public participation in the gathering, interpretation, and use of geospatial information. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is developing guidance for USGS scientists, partners, and interested members of the public on when and how public participation can most effectively be used in the conduct of scientific activities. Public participation can provide important perspectives and knowledge that cannot be obtained through traditional scientific methods alone. Citizen engagement can also provide increased efficiencies to USGS science and additional benefits to society including enhanced understanding, appreciation, and interest in geospatial information and its use in decision making.The USGS guidance addresses several fundamental issues by:1. Developing an operational definition of citizen or participatory science.2. Identifying the circumstances under which citizen science is appropriate for use and when its use is not recommended. 3. Describing structured processes for effective use of citizen science. 4. Defining the successful application of citizen science and identifying useful success metrics.The guidance is coordinated by the USGS Science and Decisions Center and developed by a multidisciplinary team of USGS scientists and managers. External perspectives will also be incorporated, as appropriate to align with other efforts such as the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) Citizen Science and Crowdsourcing Toolkit for the Federal government. The guidance will include the development of an economic framework to assess the benefits and costs of geospatial information developed through participatory processes. This economic framework considers tradeoffs between obtaining additional perspectives through enhanced participation with costs associated from obtaining

GSNL 2.0: leveraging on Open Science to promote science-based decision making in Disaster Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Salvi, Stefano; Rubbia, Giuliana; Abruzzese, Luigi

2017-04-01

In 2010 the GEO Geohazard Supersites and Natural Laboratories initiative (GSNL) launched the concept of a global partnership among the geophysical scientific community and the satellite and in situ data providers, aiming to promote scientific advancements in the knowledge of seismic and volcanic phenomena. The initial goal was successfully achieved, and many more new scientific results were obtained than it could have been possible if the Supersites had not existed (http://www.earthobservations.org/gsnl.php). At the same time the Supersites have demonstrated to be able to effectively support the rapid transfer of useful scientific information to the risk managers, exploiting the existing institutional relationships between the Supersite coordinators and the local decision makers. However, a more demanding call for action is given by the Sendai Framework 2015-2030 (outcome of the 2015 UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction), where for the first time the knowledge of the risk components and the science based decision-making process are defined as top priorities for an effective DRR. There are evident possible synergies between the Sendai framework, GEO, the CEOS (Committee on Earth Observation Satellites), and GSNL, but for maximum benefit and effectiveness the latter needs to progress at a faster pace towards a full implementation of the Open Science approach to geohazard science. In the above global framework the Supersites can represent local test beds where to experiment coordination, collaboration and communication approaches and technological solutions tailored to the local situation, to ensure that the scientific community can contribute the information needed for the best possible decision making. This vision and the new developments of GSNL 2.0 have been approved by the GEO Program Board, and a clear roadmap has been set for the period 2017-2019. We will present the approach and the implementation plan at the conference.

A hybrid credibility-based fuzzy multiple objective optimisation to differential pricing and inventory policies with arbitrage consideration

Science.gov (United States)

Ghasemy Yaghin, R.; Fatemi Ghomi, S. M. T.; Torabi, S. A.

2015-10-01

In most markets, price differentiation mechanisms enable manufacturers to offer different prices for their products or services in different customer segments; however, the perfect price discrimination is usually impossible for manufacturers. The importance of accounting for uncertainty in such environments spurs an interest to develop appropriate decision-making tools to deal with uncertain and ill-defined parameters in joint pricing and lot-sizing problems. This paper proposes a hybrid bi-objective credibility-based fuzzy optimisation model including both quantitative and qualitative objectives to cope with these issues. Taking marketing and lot-sizing decisions into account simultaneously, the model aims to maximise the total profit of manufacturer and to improve service aspects of retailing simultaneously to set different prices with arbitrage consideration. After applying appropriate strategies to defuzzify the original model, the resulting non-linear multi-objective crisp model is then solved by a fuzzy goal programming method. An efficient stochastic search procedure using particle swarm optimisation is also proposed to solve the non-linear crisp model.

Inflation Targeting and Liquidity Traps under Endogenous Credibility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hommes, C.; Lustenhouwer, J.

2015-01-01

We derive policy implications for an inflation targeting central bank, who's credibility is endogenous and depends on its past ability to achieve its targets. We do this in a New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous agents and boundely rational expectations. Our assumptions about expectation

Science-based decision making in a high-risk energy production environment

Science.gov (United States)

Weiser, D. A.

2016-12-01

Energy production practices that may induce earthquakes require decisions about acceptable risk before projects begin. How much ground shaking, structural damage, infrastructure damage, or delay of geothermal power and other operations is tolerable? I review a few mitigation strategies as well as existing protocol in several U.S. states. Timely and accurate scientific information can assist in determining the costs and benefits of altering production parameters. These issues can also be addressed with probability estimates of adverse effects ("costs"), frequency of earthquakes of different sizes, and associated impacts of different magnitude earthquakes. When risk management decisions based on robust science are well-communicated to stakeholders, mitigation efforts benefit. Effective communications elements include a) the risks and benefits of different actions (e.g. using a traffic light protocol); b) the factors to consider when determining acceptable risk; and c) the probability of different magnitude events. I present a case example for The Geysers geothermal field in California, to discuss locally "acceptable" and "unacceptable" earthquakes and share nearby communities' responses to smaller and larger magnitude earthquakes. I use the USGS's "Did You Feel It?" data archive to sample how often felt events occur, and how many of those are above acceptable magnitudes (to both local residents and operators). Using this information, I develop a science-based decision-making framework, in the case of potentially risky earthquakes, for lessening seismic risk and other negative consequences. This includes assessing future earthquake probabilities based on past earthquake records. One of my goals is to help characterize uncertainties in a way that they can be managed; to this end, I present simple and accessible approaches that can be used in the decision making process.

Treatment decisions under ambiguity.

Science.gov (United States)

Berger, Loïc; Bleichrodt, Han; Eeckhoudt, Louis

2013-05-01

Many health risks are ambiguous in the sense that reliable and credible information about these risks is unavailable. In health economics, ambiguity is usually handled through sensitivity analysis, which implicitly assumes that people are neutral towards ambiguity. However, empirical evidence suggests that people are averse to ambiguity and react strongly to it. This paper studies the effects of ambiguity aversion on two classical medical decision problems. If there is ambiguity regarding the diagnosis of a patient, ambiguity aversion increases the decision maker's propensity to opt for treatment. On the other hand, in the case of ambiguity regarding the effects of treatment, ambiguity aversion leads to a reduction in the propensity to choose treatment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Helping decision makers frame, analyze, and implement decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Runge, Michael C.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2018-01-01

All decisions have the same recognizable elements. Context, objectives, alternatives, consequences, and deliberation. Decision makers and analysts familiar with these elements can quickly see the underlying structure of a decision.There are only a small number of classes of decisions. These classes differ in the cognitive and scientific challenge they present to the decision maker; the ability to recognize the class of decision leads a decision maker to tools to aid in the analysis.Sometimes we need more information, sometimes we don’t. The role of science in a decision-making process is to provide the predictions that link the alternative actions to the desired outcomes. Investing in more science is only valuable if it helps to choose a better action.Implementation. The successful integration of decision analysis into environmental decisions requires careful attention to the decision, the people, and the institutions involved.

Estimation of maximum credible atmospheric radioactivity concentrations and dose rates from nuclear tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Telegadas, K.

1979-01-01

A simple technique is presented for estimating maximum credible gross beta air concentrations from nuclear detonations in the atmosphere, based on aircraft sampling of radioactivity following each Chinese nuclear test from 1964 to 1976. The calculated concentration is a function of the total yield and fission yield, initial vertical radioactivity distribution, time after detonation, and rate of horizontal spread of the debris with time. calculated maximum credible concentrations are compared with the highest concentrations measured during aircraft sampling. The technique provides a reasonable estimate of maximum air concentrations from 1 to 10 days after a detonation. An estimate of the whole-body external gamma dose rate corresponding to the maximum credible gross beta concentration is also given. (author)

Parental acceptance of HPV vaccine in Peru: a decision framework.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosario M Bartolini

Full Text Available Cervical cancer is the third most common cancer affecting women worldwide and it is an important cause of death, especially in developing countries. Cervical cancer is caused by human papillomavirus (HPV and can be prevented by HPV vaccine. The challenge is to expand vaccine availability to countries where it is most needed. In 2008 Peru's Ministry of Health implemented a demonstration project involving 5(th grade girls in primary schools in the Piura region. We designed and conducted a qualitative study of the decision-making process among parents of girls, and developed a conceptual model describing the process of HPV vaccine acceptance.We found a nonlinear HPV decision-making process that evolved over time. Initially, the vaccine's newness, the requirement of written consent, and provision of information were important. If information was sufficient and provided by credible sources, many parents accepted the vaccine. Later, after obtaining additional information from teachers, health personnel, and other trusted sources, more parents accepted vaccination. An understanding of the issues surrounding the vaccine developed, parents overcome fears and rumors, and engaged in family negotiations-including hearing the girl's voice in the decision-making process. The concept of prevention (cancer as danger, future health, and trust in vaccines combined with pragmatic factors (no cost, available at school and the credibility of the offer (information in the media, recommendation of respected authority figure were central to motivations that led parents to decide to vaccinate their daughters. A lack of confidence in the health system was the primary inhibitor of vaccine acceptance.Health personnel and teachers are credible sources of information and can provide important support to HPV vaccination campaigns.

Toward actionable science: Empowering ecologists to engage in the process of translation through decision-maker and stakeholder partnerships

Science.gov (United States)

Enquist, C.; Jackson, S. T.; Garfin, G. M.

2017-12-01

Translational ecology is an approach by which ecologists, stakeholders, and decision-makers work collaboratively to develop and deliver ecological research that, ideally, results in actionable science that leads to improved environmental decision-making. We analyzed a diverse array of real-world case studies and distilled six principles that characterize the practice of translational ecology: communication, commitment, collaboration, engagement, process, and decision-framing. In this talk, we highlight a subset of the case studies that illustrate these principles. Notably, we found that translational ecology is distinct from both basic and applied ecological research. As a practice, the approach deliberately extends research beyond theory or opportunistic applications, motivated by a search for outcomes that directly serve the needs of natural resource managers and decision-makers. Translational ecology is also distinct from knowledge co-production in that it does not require deep engagement between collaborators, although incorporating differing modes of co-production relative to the decision context, associated time frame, and available financial resources can greatly enhance the translational approach. Although there is a need for incentives to pursue in this type of work, we found that the creativity and context-specific knowledge of resource managers, practitioners, and decision-makers informs and enriches the scientific process, helping shape actionable science. Moreover, the process of addressing research questions arising from on-the-ground management issues, rather than from the top-down or expert-oriented perspectives of traditional science, can foster the long-term trust and commitment that is critical for long-term, sustained engagement between partners. Now, perhaps more than ever, the climate and environmental issues facing society are complex, often politicized, and value-laden. We argue that ecological science should play a key role in informing

Enabling and Encouraging Transparency in Earth Science Data for Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Abbott, S. B.

2010-12-01

Our ability to understand, respond, and make decisions about our changing planet hinges on timely scientific information and situational awareness. Information and understanding will continue to be the foundations of decision support in the face of uncertainty. Over the last 40 years, investments in Earth observations have brought remarkable achievements in weather prediction, disaster prediction and response, land management, and our broad base of Earth science knowledge. The only way to know what is happening to our planet and to manage our resources wisely is to measure it, This means tracking changes decade after decade and reanalyzing the record in light of new insights, technologies, and methodologies. In order to understand and respond to climate change and other global challenges, there is a need for a high degree of transparency in the publication, management, traceability, and citability of science data, and particularly for Earth science data. In addition, it is becoming increasingly important that free, open, and authoritative sources of quality data are available for peer review. One important focus is on applications and opportunities for enhancing data exchange standards for use with Earth science data. By increasing the transparency of scientific work and providing incentives for researchers and institutions to openly share data, we will more effectively leverage the scientific capacity of our Nation to address climate change and to meet future challenges. It is an enormous challenge to collect, organize, and communicate the vast stores of data maintained across the government. The Administration is committed to moving past these barriers in providing the American public with unprecedented access to useful government data, including an open architecture and making data available in multiple formats. The goal is to enable better decision-making, drive transparency, and to help power innovation for a stronger America. Whether for a research project

Teaching Climate Social Science and Its Practices: A Two-Pronged Approach to Climate Literacy

Science.gov (United States)

Shwom, R.; Isenhour, C.; McCright, A.; Robinson, J.; Jordan, R.

2014-12-01

The Essential Principles of Climate Science Literacy states that a climate-literate individual can: "understand the essential principles of Earth's climate system, assess scientifically credible information about climate change, communicate about climate and climate change in a meaningful way, and make informed and responsible decisions with regard to actions that may affect climate." We argue that further integration of the social science dimensions of climate change will advance the climate literacy goals of communication and responsible actions. The underlying rationale for this argues: 1) teaching the habits of mind and scientific practices that have synergies across the social and natural sciences can strengthen students ability to understand and assess science in general and that 2) understanding the empirical research on the social, political, and economic processes (including climate science itself) that are part of the climate system is an important step for enabling effective action and communication. For example, while climate literacy has often identified the public's faulty mental models of climate processes as a partial explanation of complacency, emerging research suggests that the public's mental models of the social world are equally or more important in leading to informed and responsible climate decisions. Building student's ability to think across the social and natural sciences by understanding "how we know what we know" through the sciences and a scientific understanding of the social world allows us to achieve climate literacy goals more systematically and completely. To enable this integration we first identify the robust social science insights for the climate science literacy principles that involve social systems. We then briefly identify significant social science contributions to climate science literacy that do not clearly fit within the seven climate literacy principles but arguably could advance climate literacy goals. We conclude

Rejoinder to commentary on Palmatier and Rovner (2015): credibility assessment: Preliminary Process Theory, the polygraph process, and construct validity.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmatier, John J; Rovner, Louis

2015-01-01

We briefly review comments submitted in response to the target article in this series (Palmatier & Rovner, 2015) arguing that a scientifically defensible construct for the instrumental assessment of credibility (i.e. polygraph) may be found in Barry's Preliminary Process Theory (PPT). Our review of the relevant scientific literature discovered a growing body of converging evidence, particularly from the neurosciences that focus not only on deception, but more broadly on memory, emotion, and the orienting response (OR), leading to this conclusion. After reviewing the submitted comments, we are further convinced, especially as applied scientists, that at this time the most viable direction forward is in the context of the PPT. Concurrently, we candidly acknowledge that research must be conducted to address not only commentator concerns but, if warranted, modification of existing theory. Although disagreement continues to exist regarding the order in which questions are asked, the most significant finding, is perhaps that not a single commentator argues against this growing, and vital applied science (i.e., the instrumental assessment of credibility - polygraph). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Building Credible Human Capital Analytics for Organizational Competitive Advantage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Minbaeva, Dana

2018-01-01

Despite the enormous interest in human capital analytics (HCA), organizations have struggled to move from operational reporting to HCA. This is mainly the result of the inability of analytics teams to establish credible internal HCA and demonstrate its value. In this article, we stress the import......Despite the enormous interest in human capital analytics (HCA), organizations have struggled to move from operational reporting to HCA. This is mainly the result of the inability of analytics teams to establish credible internal HCA and demonstrate its value. In this article, we stress...... the importance of conceptualizing HCA as an organizational capability and suggest a method for its operationalization. We argue that the development of HCA within an organization requires working with three dimensions of HCA: data quality, analytics capabilities, and strategic ability to act. Moreover, such work...

Structured decision making: Chapter 5

Science.gov (United States)

Runge, Michael C.; Grand, James B.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Krausman, Paul R.; Cain, James W. III

2013-01-01

Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.

What Can Funders Do to Better Link Science with Decisions? Case Studies of Coastal Communities and Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Matso, Kalle E.; Becker, Mimi L.

2014-12-01

Many reports and studies have noted that a significant portion of problem-oriented coastal science does not actually link to decisions. Here, three competitively funded project case studies are studied to determine what funders can and should do to better link science with decisions. The qualitative analysis used for this study indicates that the studied program was seen as being unusually attentive to the issue of linking science to decisions, as opposed to simply generating new knowledge. Nevertheless, much of the data indicate that funders can and should do more. Three ideas figured most prominently in the qualitative data: (1) funders should do more to ensure that the problem itself is defined more thoroughly with people who are envisioned as potential users of the science; (2) funders need to allocate more resources and attention to communicating effectively (with users) throughout the project; and (3) funders need to demand more engagement of users throughout the project. These findings have important implications for how funders review and support science, especially when competitive processes are used. Most importantly, funders should adjust what kind of science they ask for. Secondly, funders need to change who is involved in the review process. Currently, review processes focus on knowledge generation, which means that the reviewers themselves have expertise in that area. Instead, review panels should be balanced between those who focus on knowledge generation and those who focus on linking knowledge to decisions; this is a separate but critical discipline currently left out of the review process.

INVESTIGATINGTHE SOURCEATTRIBUTES INFLUENCINGCONSUMERS’ CREDIBILITY EVALUATIONS OF AN ATHLETE-CELEBRITY ENDORSED PRODUCT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bafokeng Bafokeng Mahao

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The use of celebrity endorsement as an advertising strategy has been widelyembraced by numerousorganisations. Nonetheless, scholarly wisdom suggests theneed for cumulative research that seeks to identify the unique set of source factorsthat enhance the credibility of advertising communication messages delivered bycelebrities across countries.Inthis vein, the primary purpose of this research wasto apply the dimensions of thesource attributes theory (Ohanian, 1990 tounderstand the underlying factors that influence South African consumers to havepositive perceptions towards purchasingaproductthat hasbeen endorsed by alocal athlete celebrity-endorser. A quantitative research approach was applied,wherein a self-administered survey questionnaire comprising20scale items wasadapted for this research. Data were collected from a consumer sample of 456consumers based in Gauteng, South Africa. Upon applying exploratory factoranalysisand mean score rankings, source likeability, source trust, source authorityand source credibility were established as the underlying factors influencingconsumers’ credibility evaluations, in descending order of importance. Moreover,the inter-factor correlation matrix revealed positive relationships among theidentified factors. Insights gained from this study could assist practitioners todesign effectiveadvertisementstrategies that fosterpositivecredibility evaluationsthrough known product endorsers.

Credibility, Replicability, and Reproducibility in Simulation for Biomedicine and Clinical Applications in Neuroscience

Science.gov (United States)

Mulugeta, Lealem; Drach, Andrew; Erdemir, Ahmet; Hunt, C. A.; Horner, Marc; Ku, Joy P.; Myers Jr., Jerry G.; Vadigepalli, Rajanikanth; Lytton, William W.

2018-01-01

Modeling and simulation in computational neuroscience is currently a research enterprise to better understand neural systems. It is not yet directly applicable to the problems of patients with brain disease. To be used for clinical applications, there must not only be considerable progress in the field but also a concerted effort to use best practices in order to demonstrate model credibility to regulatory bodies, to clinics and hospitals, to doctors, and to patients. In doing this for neuroscience, we can learn lessons from long-standing practices in other areas of simulation (aircraft, computer chips), from software engineering, and from other biomedical disciplines. In this manuscript, we introduce some basic concepts that will be important in the development of credible clinical neuroscience models: reproducibility and replicability; verification and validation; model configuration; and procedures and processes for credible mechanistic multiscale modeling. We also discuss how garnering strong community involvement can promote model credibility. Finally, in addition to direct usage with patients, we note the potential for simulation usage in the area of Simulation-Based Medical Education, an area which to date has been primarily reliant on physical models (mannequins) and scenario-based simulations rather than on numerical simulations. PMID:29713272

Credibility, Replicability, and Reproducibility in Simulation for Biomedicine and Clinical Applications in Neuroscience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lealem Mulugeta

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Modeling and simulation in computational neuroscience is currently a research enterprise to better understand neural systems. It is not yet directly applicable to the problems of patients with brain disease. To be used for clinical applications, there must not only be considerable progress in the field but also a concerted effort to use best practices in order to demonstrate model credibility to regulatory bodies, to clinics and hospitals, to doctors, and to patients. In doing this for neuroscience, we can learn lessons from long-standing practices in other areas of simulation (aircraft, computer chips, from software engineering, and from other biomedical disciplines. In this manuscript, we introduce some basic concepts that will be important in the development of credible clinical neuroscience models: reproducibility and replicability; verification and validation; model configuration; and procedures and processes for credible mechanistic multiscale modeling. We also discuss how garnering strong community involvement can promote model credibility. Finally, in addition to direct usage with patients, we note the potential for simulation usage in the area of Simulation-Based Medical Education, an area which to date has been primarily reliant on physical models (mannequins and scenario-based simulations rather than on numerical simulations.

A comparison of inflation expectations and inflation credibility in South Africa: results from survey data

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Jannie Rossouw

2011-08-01

Full Text Available This paper reports a comparison of South African household inflation expectations and inflation credibility surveys undertaken in 2006 and 2008. It tests for possible feed-through between inflation credibility and inflation expectations. It supplements earlier research that focused only on the 2006 survey results. The comparison shows that inflation expectations differed between different income groups in both 2006 and 2008. Inflation credibility differed between male and female respondents, but this difference did not feed through to inflation expectations. More periodic survey data will be required for developing final conclusions on the possibility of feed-through effects. To this end the structure of credibility surveys should be reconsidered, as a large percentage of respondents indicated that they ‘don’t know’ whether the historic rate of inflation is an accurate indication of price increases.

Evaluating the best available social science for natural resource management decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Susan Charnley; Courtney Carothers; Terre Satterfield; Arielle Levine; Melissa R. Poe; Karma Norman; Jamie Donatuto; Sara Jo Breslow; Michael B. Mascia; Phillip S. Levin; Xavier Basurto; Christina C. Hicks; Carlos García-Quijano; Kevin St. Martin

2017-01-01

Increasing recognition of the human dimensions of natural resource management issues, and of social and ecological sustainability and resilience as being inter-related, highlights the importance of applying social science to natural resource management decision-making. Moreover, a number of laws and regulations require natural resource management agencies to consider...

Credible or not : A study on the factors influencing consumers' credibility assessment of product placements on Instagram

OpenAIRE

Kulin, Elin; Blomgren, Linnéa

2016-01-01

Background: To align with the new trend of using social media in the marketing mix, product placement has been adapted to social media platforms as one strategy to create attention. Especially on Instagram, product placements have gained popularity among companies. While scholars have focused on measuring the effectiveness of the strategy, suggesting that credibility is one component necessary for success, a gap in the research is illuminated when focusing on what makes a product placement on...

Distribution system reliability evaluation using credibility theory | Xu ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this paper, a hybrid algorithm based on fuzzy simulation and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is applied to determine fuzzy reliability indices of distribution system. This approach can obtain fuzzy expected values and their variances of reliability indices, and the credibilities of reliability indices meeting specified ...

Co-producing resilient solutions to climate change: Bridging the gap between science and decision-making around nexus issues

Science.gov (United States)

Howarth, C.

2016-12-01

The nexus represents a multi-dimensional means of scientific enquiry encapsulating the complex and non-linear interactions between water, energy, food, environment with the climate, and wider implications for society. These resources are fundamental for human life but are negatively affected by climate change. Methods of analysis, which are currently used, were not built to represent complex systems and are insufficiently equipped to understand positive and negative externalities generated by interactions among different stakeholders involved in the nexus. In addition misalignment between the science that scientists produce and the evidence decision-makers need leads to a range of complexities within the science-policy interface. Adopting a bottom-up, participative approach, the results of five themed workshops organized in the UK (focusing on: shocks and hazards, infrastructure, local economy, governance and governments, finance and insurance) featuring 80 stakeholders from academia, government and industry allow us to map perceptions of opportunities and challenges of better informing decision making on climate change when there is a strong disconnect between the evidence scientists provide and the actions decision makers take. The research identified key areas where gaps could be bridged between science and action and explores how a knowledge co-production approach can help identify opportunities for building a more effective and legitimate policy agenda to face climate risks. Concerns, barriers and opportunities to better inform decision making centred on four themes: communication and collaboration, decision making processes, social and cultural dimensions, and the nature of responses to nexus shocks. In so doing, this analysis provides an assessment of good practice on climate decision-making and highlights opportunities for improvement to bridge gaps in the science-policy interface

Credibility assessment of testimonies provided by victims with intellectual disabilities

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Antonio L. MANZANERO

2017-09-01

Full Text Available One of the main obstacles in the way of access to justice for the victims with intellectual disability comes from the stereotypes referred to their ability to produce a statement at police legal procedures, with the consequence that some consider their statements less reliable than the rest of the victims, and others considerate their statements more reliable given their inability to create complex lies. This article reviews three of the most recent studies done by the UCM group of Psychology of Testimony, with the objective of analyzing the role of experience and intuition in the evaluation of credibility in people with intellectual disability (ID, and also it aims to prove whether the credibility analysis procedures such as Reality Monitoring (RM and Statement Validity Assessment (SVA would be valid procedures to discriminate between real and false statements within these collectives. From the results of these studies, it can be deducted that experience may not seem to be enough in order to discriminate between real and simulated victims, but analyzing the characteristics of the statements as the only indicator doesn’t seem to be enough either. As an alternative, the general procedure HELPT is proposed for the evaluation of credibility of people with ID.

The Source and Credibility of Colorectal Cancer Information on Twitter.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, SoHyun; Oh, Heung-Kwon; Park, Gibeom; Suh, Bongwon; Bae, Woo Kyung; Kim, Jin Won; Yoon, Hyuk; Kim, Duck-Woo; Kang, Sung-Bum

2016-02-01

Despite the rapid penetration of social media in modern life, there has been limited research conducted on whether social media serves as a credible source of health information. In this study, we propose to identify colorectal cancer information on Twitter and assess its informational credibility. We collected Twitter messages containing colorectal cancer-related keywords, over a 3-month period. A review of sample tweets yielded content and user categorization schemes. The results of the sample analysis were applied to classify all collected tweets and users, using a machine learning technique. The credibility of the information in the sampled tweets was evaluated. A total of 76,119 tweets were analyzed. Individual users authored the majority of tweets (n = 68,982, 90.6%). They mostly tweeted about news articles/research (n = 16,761, 22.0%) and risk/prevention (n = 14,767, 19.4%). Medical professional users generated only 2.0% of total tweets (n = 1509), and medical institutions rarely tweeted (n = 417, 0.6%). Organizations tended to tweet more about information than did individuals (85.2% vs 63.1%; P users. Coupled with the Internet's potential to increase social support, Twitter may contribute to enhancing public health and empowering users, when used with proper caution.

Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

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Jindrová Pavla

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

Credibility and music´s effect as therapeutic kind in health

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Karyne Cristine da Fonseca

2006-12-01

Full Text Available This article has as purpose to analise the professional´s music therapist´s perception about the credibility and approval of music therapy by their clients. It´s a qualitative research, developed in Goiânia-GO, between 2003, august and 2004, june. We verified that the professional´s majority noted their client´s credibility related to music capacity in transmitting pleasant sensations and its capacity to act in a efficient way on the healing process of some diseases. They too evidence that the music therapy needs to be published with more effectiveness for the population.

Eletronuclear's relationship with the Brazilian media: transparency and credibility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez, Gloria

2013-01-01

In a capitalist economy the most valued assets are not money, shares or facilities, but credibility. Lack of money can ruin a company, but often it is reputation that delivers the final blow. It has become challenging to safeguard reputation in a world where Communication is increasingly connected and with such an intense and lightning fast flow of information. This is particularly true for the electricity sector - a commodity so prevalent in everyday modern life, but, whose business dealings, are hardly known by the general public. When it comes to nuclear energy, the challenge of establishing an effective Communication with transparency and credibility touches on even more complex elements. The topic of this paper is the scenario through which the Communication process, along with its characteristics and approaches, unfolds between the nuclear sector and the Brazilian media. (author)

Inter-generational Decision Making for Radioactive Waste Disposal, Policy and Science: Regulatory Protection Forever?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Regnier, E.P.; Wallo, A.

2006-01-01

Assumptions about this generation's duty to future generations underlie decisions on regulatory requirements for disposal of radioactive waste. Regulatory provisions related to time of compliance, dose criteria, and institutional controls, for example, continue to be topics of discussion as regulations are revised or compared. Subjective and difficult ethical issues are either explicit or implicit in these discussions. The information and criteria used must be relevant and help make good decisions that, ideally, increase the overall welfare of future generations. To what extent can or should science usefully inform such decision-making? Both the National Academies of Science and the National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) have reported on this topic, albeit from different viewpoints. This paper explains and expands upon the rationale used for setting compliance time periods such as the Department of Energy's requirement for a 1,000 year time of compliance with dose limits for low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities. It evaluates radioactive waste disposal against principles of equity recommended by NAPA. Radioactive waste disposal standards require evaluation of impacts much farther into the future than has been common for other endeavors with very long term effects. While performance assessment analyses provide much useful information, their inherent uncertainties over long time periods preclude the projection of reality. Thus, the usefulness of extremely long projections in supporting good decisions that promote the welfare of future generations is limited. Such decisions are fundamentally a question of resource allocation, equity, and fairness. (authors)

An integrated model of decision-making in health contexts: the role of science education in health education

Science.gov (United States)

Arnold, Julia C.

2018-03-01

Health education is to foster health literacy, informed decision-making and to promote health behaviour. To date, there are several models that seek to explain health behaviour (e.g. the Theory of Planned Behaviour or the Health Belief Model). These models include motivational factors (expectancies and values) that play a role in decision-making in health contexts. In this theoretical paper, it is argued that none of these models makes consequent use of expectancy-value pairs. It is further argued that in order to make these models fruitful for science education and for informed decision-making, models should systematically incorporate knowledge as part of the decision-making process. To fill this gap, this theoretical paper introduces The Integrated Model of Decision-Making in Health Contexts. This model includes three types of knowledge (system health knowledge, action-related health knowledge and effectiveness health knowledge) as influencing factors for motivational factors (perceived health threat, attitude towards health action, attitude towards health outcome and subjective norm) that are formed of expectancy-value pairs and lead to decisions. The model's potential for health education in science education as well as research implications is discussed.

Looking into the Credibility of Appearance: Exploring the Role of Color in Interface Aesthetics and How it Affects our Perception on System’s Credibility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Achmad Syarief

2007-03-01

Full Text Available Dalam penelitian  ini dikaji hasil tiga eksperimen sebagai kelanjutan studi yang pernah dilakukan oleh Kurosu-Kashimura [1] dan Noam Tractinsky [2] tentang  relasi antara persepsi pengguna dengan kualitas estetik dan usability tampilan interface. Berdasar dua premis utama yaitu bahwa persepsi estetik dipengaruhi latar belakang kultural serta tampilan yang atraktif dapat mempengaruhi persepsi kehandalan sebuah produk., Dalam penelitian ini dievaluasi bagaimana persepsi pengguna migran (:orang Indonesia yang berada di Jepang terhadap relasi antara tampilan estetik  dan apparent usability pada sebuah interface produk. Dalam eksperimen dilakukan investigasi efek tampilan warna pada sebuah interface produk terhadap persepsi trustworthy (tingkat kepercayaan dan credibility (tingkat kredibilitas produk secara umum. Sebagai stimulus, digunakan tampilan  layout-utama (hasil modifikasi layar ATM bank di Jepang. Hasil eksperimen menunjukkan bahwa nilai estetik tampilan interface mempengaruhi persepsi user atas credibility (tingkat kredibilitas dan trustworthy (tingkat kepercayaan sebuah objek. Latar belakang budaya pengguna tidak memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap persepsi estetik tampilan interface apabila pengguna telah melakukan adaptasi eksperiential  atau memiliki pengalaman interaksi dengan produk dengan komposisi layout sejenis. Lebih lanjut hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa warna memiliki pengaruh penting dalam meningkatkan kualitas ke-atraktif-an, persepsi kredibiltas (credibility, dan tingkat penerimaan (acceptability pengguna (user. Eksperimen lebih lanjut perlu dilakukan untuk mengetahui bagaimana dan seperti apa sebuah kombinasi warna pada sebuah tampilan interface, dapat memiliki pengaruh yang bermakna  pada keterpakaian sebuah  produk.

GROWTH, LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS, CREDIBILITY AND THE EFFECTS OF SHOCKS UNDER A NON-CREDIBLE GOVERNMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

DURMUŞ ÖZDEMİR

2013-06-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an overlapping generations model for a small open economy. The model is calibrated to fit data for Turkey. Simulations suggest that for a fairly open economy such as Turkey, credibility and liquidity constraints matter and the choice of income taxation rate, the mix of government spending and the long-run government debt/GDP ratio can all significantly affect the economic growth. The paper also examines the effectiveness of fiscal policy under different levels of liquidity constraint in an open economy within a dynamic framework. It shows that liquidity constraints can affect the outcome of any fiscal policy. Hence fiscal policy is even more important for the less developed economies of the world.

Parental Acceptance of HPV Vaccine in Peru: A Decision Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Bartolini, Rosario M.; Winkler, Jennifer L.; Penny, Mary E.; LaMontagne, D. Scott

2012-01-01

Objective and Method Cervical cancer is the third most common cancer affecting women worldwide and it is an important cause of death, especially in developing countries. Cervical cancer is caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) and can be prevented by HPV vaccine. The challenge is to expand vaccine availability to countries where it is most needed. In 2008 Peru’s Ministry of Health implemented a demonstration project involving 5th grade girls in primary schools in the Piura region. We designed and conducted a qualitative study of the decision-making process among parents of girls, and developed a conceptual model describing the process of HPV vaccine acceptance. Results We found a nonlinear HPV decision-making process that evolved over time. Initially, the vaccine’s newness, the requirement of written consent, and provision of information were important. If information was sufficient and provided by credible sources, many parents accepted the vaccine. Later, after obtaining additional information from teachers, health personnel, and other trusted sources, more parents accepted vaccination. An understanding of the issues surrounding the vaccine developed, parents overcome fears and rumors, and engaged in family negotiations–including hearing the girl’s voice in the decision-making process. The concept of prevention (cancer as danger, future health, and trust in vaccines) combined with pragmatic factors (no cost, available at school) and the credibility of the offer (information in the media, recommendation of respected authority figure) were central to motivations that led parents to decide to vaccinate their daughters. A lack of confidence in the health system was the primary inhibitor of vaccine acceptance. Conclusions Health personnel and teachers are credible sources of information and can provide important support to HPV vaccination campaigns. PMID:23144719

Source Credibility and the Biasing Effect of Narrative Information on the Perception of Vaccination Risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Haase, Niels; Betsch, Cornelia; Renkewitz, Frank

2015-08-01

Immunization rates are below the Global Immunization Vision and Strategy established by the World Health Organization. One reason for this are anti-vaccination activists, who use the Internet to disseminate their agenda, frequently by publishing narrative reports about alleged vaccine adverse events. In health communication, the use of narrative information has been shown to be effectively persuasive. Furthermore, persuasion research indicates that the credibility of an information source may serve as a cue to discount or augment the communicated message. Thus, the present study investigated the effect of source credibility on the biasing effect of narrative information regarding the perception of vaccination risks. 265 participants were provided with statistical information (20%) regarding the occurrence of vaccine adverse events after vaccination against a fictitious disease. This was followed by 20 personalized narratives from an online forum on vaccination experiences. The authors varied the relative frequency of narratives reporting vaccine adverse events (35% vs. 85%), narrative source credibility (anti-vaccination website vs. neutral health forum), and the credibility of the statistical information (reliable data vs. unreliable data vs. control) in a between-subjects design. Results showed a stable narrative bias on risk perception that was not affected by credibility cues. However, narratives from an anti-vaccination website generally led to lower perceptions of vaccination risks.

Excess Claims and Data Trimming in the Context of Credibility Rating Procedures,

Science.gov (United States)

1981-11-01

Triining in the Context of Credibility Rating Procedures by Hans BShlmann, Alois Gisler, William S. Jewell* 1. Motivation In Ratemaking and in Experience...work on the ETH computer. __.1: " Zen * ’ ’ II / -2- 2. The Basic Model Throughout the paper we work with the most simple model in the credibility...additional structure are summed up by stating that the density -3- f 8 (x) has the following form 1) fe(x) -(1-r)po (x/e) + rape(x) 3. The Basic Problem As

Aristotle and the Theory of Decision (Prohairesis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leila Shirkhan

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The term of prohairesis was systematically entered in philosophical debates by Aristotle. This concept is generally translated as intention, will, purpose, choice, purposive choice, rational choice, and deliberative choice that the later seems to be Aristotle’s definition of prohairesis. To understand the internal structure of prohairesiss, we have to understand the conceptions of action, intention, belief, whish, will, and virtues. For Aristotle if an action will be done through a decision, this action is voluntary, but its contrary is not credible. He believes that the children and animals act voluntarily, but they have not any decision, because they have not any deliberation.

Controversy matters: Impacts of topic and solution controversy on the perceived credibility of a scientist who advocates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lindsey Beall

Full Text Available In this article, we focus on the potential influence of a scientist's advocacy position on the public's perceived credibility of scientists as a whole. Further, we examine how the scientist's solution position (information only, non-controversial, and controversial affects the public's perception of the scientist's motivation for sharing information about specific issues (flu, marijuana, climate change, severe weather. Finally, we assess how perceived motivations mediate the relationship between solution position and credibility. Using data from a quota sample of American adults obtained by Qualtrics (n = 2,453, we found that in some conditions advocating for a solution positively predicted credibility, while in one condition, it negatively predicted scientist credibility. We also found that the influence of solution position on perceived credibility was mediated by several motivation perceptions; most notably through perception that the scientist was motivated to: (a serve the public and (b persuade the public. Further results and implications are discussed.

Impact of Celebrity Credibility on Advertising Effectiveness

OpenAIRE

Sadia Aziz; Usman Ghani; Abdullah Niazi

2013-01-01

Advertisers often make use of endorsers or representatives as trustworthy sources of persuasion for consumers' attitudes. Promotion of products through celebrities is a trendy advertising practice around the world. The present study judged the impact of celebrity credibility on advertising effectiveness in terms of consumer’s attitude towards the advertisement, attitude towards the brand and their purchase intention. This study also explored the differences of respondent’s responses towards t...

A Decision Support Framework For Science-Based, Multi-Stakeholder Deliberation: A Coral Reef Example

Science.gov (United States)

We present a decision support framework for science-based assessment and multi-stakeholder deliberation. The framework consists of two parts: a DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses) analysis to identify the important causal relationships among anthropogenic environ...

Reported credibility techniques in higher education evaluation studies that use qualitative methods: A research synthesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Hongjing; Hitchcock, John

2018-06-01

This synthesis study examined the reported use of credibility techniques in higher education evaluation articles that use qualitative methods. The sample included 118 articles published in six leading higher education evaluation journals from 2003 to 2012. Mixed methods approaches were used to identify key credibility techniques reported across the articles, document the frequency of these techniques, and describe their use and properties. Two broad sets of techniques were of interest: primary design techniques (i.e., basic), such as sampling/participant recruitment strategies, data collection methods, analytic details, and additional qualitative credibility techniques (e.g., member checking, negative case analyses, peer debriefing). The majority of evaluation articles reported use of primary techniques although there was wide variation in the amount of supporting detail; most of the articles did not describe the use of additional credibility techniques. This suggests that editors of evaluation journals should encourage the reporting of qualitative design details and authors should develop strategies yielding fuller methodological description. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investors Assessment of the Credibility of Management Disclosures ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The objective of this study, is to examine the issue of the assessment of the credibility of management disclosures about a company from the perspective of the investors. It presents the results from a questionnaire survey of a sample of financial Analysts, accountants and other investor. The data were analyzed using the one ...

Source credibility and the effectiveness of firewise information

Science.gov (United States)

Alan D. Bright; Andrew W. Don Carlos; Jerry J. Vaske; James D. Absher

2007-01-01

Understanding how residents of the wildlandurban interface (WUI) react to information about firewise behavior can enhance efforts to communicate safety information to the public. This study explored the multiple roles of source credibility on the elaboration and impact of messages about conducting firewise behaviors in the WUI. A mail-back survey to residents of the...

Moderators of Framing Effects on Political Attitudes: Is Source Credibility Worth Investigating?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dana Raluca Buturoiu

2015-08-01

Full Text Available This research paper focuses on indirect (mediated media effects. In particular, we discuss which independent variables might intervene in and moderate the impact of framing effects on public attitudes (namely political trust, both in short-term and medium-term contexts. Among these, we focus on source credibility as a possible moderator of framing effects over time. The purpose of this study was to examine if and how source credibility influences individuals’ political trust. The moderator role of source credibility is analysed according to the exposure to different types of frames (repetitive or competitive at different moments (one week or one month. By means of a framing experiment (N=769 on political topics, we argue that media frames could influence political trust: Source credibility has a marginal influence, which suggests that, with stronger stimulus material (video, as opposed to written press articles, the source could play an important role in the willingness of people to trust political figures in general. Thus, we might argue that the media play a significant role not only in offering information about politics and politicians, but also in altering people’s perceptions about them. On the other hand, time seems to matter, since framing effects are more powerful after competitive media exposures. This study proposes new theoretical insights into framing effects, in the sense that classical theories should be revisited in various cultural or political contexts

Evaluation measures for relevance and credibility in ranked lists

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lioma, Christina; Simonsen, Jakob Grue; Larsen, Birger

2017-01-01

Recent discussions on alternative facts, fake news, and post truth politics have motivated research on creating technologies that allow people not only to access information, but also to assess the credibility of the information presented to them by information retrieval systems. Whereas technology...

Ranking the Online Documents Based on Relative Credibility Measures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmad Dahlan

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Information searching is the most popular activity in Internet. Usually the search engine provides the search results ranked by the relevance. However, for a certain purpose that concerns with information credibility, particularly citing information for scientific works, another approach of ranking the search engine results is required. This paper presents a study on developing a new ranking method based on the credibility of information. The method is built up upon two well-known algorithms, PageRank and Citation Analysis. The result of the experiment that used Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient to compare the proposed rank (generated by the method with the standard rank (generated manually by a group of experts showed that the average Spearman 0 < rS < critical value. It means that the correlation was proven but it was not significant. Hence the proposed rank does not satisfy the standard but the performance could be improved.

Ranking the Online Documents Based on Relative Credibility Measures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmad Dahlan

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Information searching is the most popular activity in Internet. Usually the search engine provides the search results ranked by the relevance. However, for a certain purpose that concerns with information credibility, particularly citing information for scientific works, another approach of ranking the search engine results is required. This paper presents a study on developing a new ranking method based on the credibility of information. The method is built up upon two well-known algorithms, PageRank and Citation Analysis. The result of the experiment that used Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient to compare the proposed rank (generated by the method with the standard rank (generated manually by a group of experts showed that the average Spearman 0 < rS < critical value. It means that the correlation was proven but it was not significant. Hence the proposed rank does not satisfy the standard but the performance could be improved.

The effect of source credibility on consumers' perceptions of the quality of health information on the Internet.

Science.gov (United States)

Bates, Benjamin R; Romina, Sharon; Ahmed, Rukhsana; Hopson, Danielle

2006-03-01

Recent use of the Internet as a source of health information has raised concerns about consumers' ability to tell 'good' information from 'bad' information. Although consumers report that they use source credibility to judge information quality, several observational studies suggest that consumers make little use of source credibility. This study examines consumer evaluations of web pages attributed to a credible source as compared to generic web pages on measures of message quality. In spring 2005, a community-wide convenience survey was distributed in a regional hub city in Ohio, USA. 519 participants were randomly assigned one of six messages discussing lung cancer prevention: three messages each attributed to a highly credible national organization and three identical messages each attributed to a generic web page. Independent sample t-tests were conducted to compare each attributed message to its counterpart attributed to a generic web page on measures of trustworthiness, truthfulness, readability, and completeness. The results demonstrated that differences in attribution to a source did not have a significant effect on consumers' evaluations of the quality of the information.Conclusions. The authors offer suggestions for national organizations to promote credibility to consumers as a heuristic for choosing better online health information through the use of media co-channels to emphasize credibility.

Source attribution and credibility of health and appearance exercise advertisements: relationship with implicit and explicit attitudes and intentions.

Science.gov (United States)

Berry, Tanya R; Shields, Chris

2014-02-01

The relationship of attributed source (commercial or nonprofit) and credibility of exercise advertisements to explicit and implicit exercise-related attitudes and intentions was examined. Male and female participants (N = 227) were randomly assigned to watch health or appearance-related advertisements and then completed an implicit attitudes task and questionnaires. Health advertisements and those attributed to a nonprofit source were rated more credible. Appearance condition participants who attributed the advertisement to a nonprofit source also rated the advertisement as more credible. Participants who rated a commercial advertisement as credible reported higher implicit instrumental attitudes. Implications for exercise promotion are discussed.

Communicating science in politicized environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Lupia, Arthur

2013-08-20

Many members of the scientific community attempt to convey information to policymakers and the public. Much of this information is ignored or misinterpreted. This article describes why these outcomes occur and how science communicators can achieve better outcomes. The article focuses on two challenges associated with communicating scientific information to such audiences. One challenge is that people have less capacity to pay attention to scientific presentations than many communicators anticipate. A second challenge is that people in politicized environments often make different choices about whom to believe than do people in other settings. Together, these challenges cause policymakers and the public to be less responsive to scientific information than many communicators desire. Research on attention and source credibility can help science communicators better adapt to these challenges. Attention research clarifies when, and to what type of stimuli, people do (and do not) pay attention. Source credibility research clarifies the conditions under which an audience will believe scientists' descriptions of phenomena rather than the descriptions of less-valid sources. Such research can help communicators stay true to their science while making their findings more memorable and more believable to more audiences.

Communicating science in politicized environments

Science.gov (United States)

Lupia, Arthur

2013-01-01

Many members of the scientific community attempt to convey information to policymakers and the public. Much of this information is ignored or misinterpreted. This article describes why these outcomes occur and how science communicators can achieve better outcomes. The article focuses on two challenges associated with communicating scientific information to such audiences. One challenge is that people have less capacity to pay attention to scientific presentations than many communicators anticipate. A second challenge is that people in politicized environments often make different choices about whom to believe than do people in other settings. Together, these challenges cause policymakers and the public to be less responsive to scientific information than many communicators desire. Research on attention and source credibility can help science communicators better adapt to these challenges. Attention research clarifies when, and to what type of stimuli, people do (and do not) pay attention. Source credibility research clarifies the conditions under which an audience will believe scientists’ descriptions of phenomena rather than the descriptions of less-valid sources. Such research can help communicators stay true to their science while making their findings more memorable and more believable to more audiences. PMID:23940336

How credible are the study results? Evaluating and applying internal validity tools to literature-based assessments of environmental health hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Rooney, Andrew A.; Cooper, Glinda S.; Jahnke, Gloria D.; Lam, Juleen; Morgan, Rebecca L.; Boyles, Abee L.; Ratcliffe, Jennifer M.; Kraft, Andrew D.; Schünemann, Holger J.; Schwingl, Pamela; Walker, Teneille D.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Lunn, Ruth M.

2016-01-01

Environmental health hazard assessments are routinely relied upon for public health decision-making. The evidence base used in these assessments is typically developed from a collection of diverse sources of information of varying quality. It is critical that literature-based evaluations consider the credibility of individual studies used to reach conclusions through consistent, transparent and accepted methods. Systematic review procedures address study credibility by assessing internal validity or “risk of bias” — the assessment of whether the design and conduct of a study compromised the credibility of the link between exposure/intervention and outcome. This paper describes the commonalities and differences in risk-of-bias methods developed or used by five groups that conduct or provide methodological input for performing environmental health hazard assessments: the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) Working Group, the Navigation Guide, the National Toxicology Program’s (NTP) Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) and Office of the Report on Carcinogens (ORoC), and the Integrated Risk Information System of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA-IRIS). Each of these groups have been developing and applying rigorous assessment methods for integrating across a heterogeneous collection of human and animal studies to inform conclusions on potential environmental health hazards. There is substantial consistency across the groups in the consideration of risk-of-bias issues or “domains” for assessing observational human studies. There is a similar overlap in terms of domains addressed for animal studies; however, the groups differ in the relative emphasis placed on different aspects of risk of bias. Future directions for the continued harmonization and improvement of these methods are also discussed. PMID:26857180

Exploring Science Teachers' Argumentation and Personal Epistemology About Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Shiyu; Roehrig, Gillian

2017-06-01

This case study investigated the nature of in-service science teachers' argumentation and personal epistemology about global climate change during a 3-year professional development program on climate change education. Qualitative analysis of data from interviews and written assessments revealed that while these teachers grounded their arguments on climate issues in evidence, the evidence was often insufficient to justify their causal claims. Compared with generating arguments for their own views, teachers had more difficulties in constructing evidence-based arguments for alternative perspectives. Moreover, while these teachers shared some similarities in their epistemology about climate science, they varied in their beliefs about specific aspects such as scientists' expertise and the credibility of scientific evidence. Such similarities and distinctions were shown to relate to how teachers used evidence to justify claims in their arguments. The findings also suggested a mismatch between teachers' personal epistemology about science in general and climate science, which was revealed through their argumentation. This work helps to further the ongoing discussions in environmental education about what knowledge and skills teachers need in order to teach climate issues and prepare students for future decision making. It constitutes first steps to facilitate reasoning and argumentation in climate change education and provides important implications for future design of professional development programs.

Getting Beyond First Base: Science-Society Communication for Climate Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Garfin, G. M.

2010-12-01

examination of how others confronting similar issues have both adapted well-known management strategies and developed outside-the-box ideas to move beyond “uncertainty paralysis.” Some preliminary conclusions from our work include the following: (a) iterative and ongoing engagements are necessary to build trust and bolster science credibility; (b) uncertainty, formerly a topic to avoided, forms the foundation for constructive progress in adaptation planning and improving forecast use, and (c) candid exploration of the array of uncertainties, which includes those due to modeling, institutional, policy and economic factors - with decision-making peers, science translators, and subject experts, is needed to stimulate constructive thinking on adaptation strategies. For scientists, gaining insight into how decisions are made is the most important part of scientist-stakeholder interactions. For managers, the most important factors are holistic, cross-sectoral, examination of both climate and non-climate factors affecting resources, and the diversity of public values regarding resource management.

Ferrocyanide safety program: Credibility of drying out ferrocyanide tank waste by hot spots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dickinson, D.R.; McLaren, J.M.; Borsheim, G.L.; Crippen, M.D.

1993-04-01

The single-shell waste tanks at the Hanford Site that contain significant quantities of ferrocyanide have been considered a possible hazard, since under certain conditions the ferrocyanide in the waste tanks could undergo an exothermic chemical reaction with the nitrates and nitrites that are also present in the tanks. The purpose of this report is to assess the credibility of local dryout of ferrocyanide due to a hotspot. This report considers the following: What amount of decay heat generation within what volume would be necessary to raise the temperature of the liquid in the sludge to its boiling point? What mechanisms could produce a significant local concentration of heat sources? Is it credible that a waste tank heat concentration could be as large as that required to reach the dryout temperatures? This report also provides a recommendation as to whether infrared scanning of the ferrocyanide tanks is needed. From the analyses presented in this report it is evident that formation of dry, and thus chemically reactive, regions in the ferrocyanide sludge by local hotspots is not credible. This conclusion is subject to reevaluation if future analyses of tank core samples show much higher 137 Cs or 90 Sr concentrations than expected. Since hotspots of concern are not credible, infrared scanning to detect such hotspots is not required for safe storage of tank waste

Online decision support tools for the Office of Science and Technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, S.W.; Marshall, M.G.; Harrington, M.W.

1996-01-01

The United States Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management Office of Science and Technology (OST) has established a program responsible for collecting, administering, continuously updating, and disseminating data on developing technologies intended for the clean-up of the department's weapons complex. The basis of this program originated from information related activities begun in 1991 and has grown to become a state-of-the-art data and information infrastructure, providing a broad range of capabilities that harmonize both the internal and external data and communication requirements of this office. A decision assistance functionality has been maintained and incorporated for use in coordination with a broader information management concept. The OST information inventory maintains operational data sets and information representative of OST activities. The following paper summarizes the operational activities of the Information for Decisions program

Climate science informs participatory scenario development and applications to decision making in Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Welling, L. A.; Winfree, R.; Mow, J.

2012-12-01

Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for managing natural and cultural resources into the future. Impacts are expected to be highly consequential but specific effects are difficult to predict, requiring a flexible process for adaptation planning that is tightly coupled to climate science delivery systems. Scenario planning offers a tool for making science-based decisions under uncertainty. The National Park Service (NPS) is working with the Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers (CSCs), the NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs), and other academic, government, non-profit, and private partners to develop and apply scenarios to long-range planning and decision frameworks. In April 2012, Alaska became the first region of the NPS to complete climate change scenario planning for every national park, preserve, and monument. These areas, which collectively make up two-thirds of the total area of the NPS, are experiencing visible and measurable effects attributable to climate change. For example, thawing sea ice, glaciers and permafrost have resulted in coastal erosion, loss of irreplaceable cultural sites, slope failures, flooding of visitor access routes, and infrastructure damage. With higher temperatures and changed weather patterns, woody vegetation has expanded into northern tundra, spruce and cedar diebacks have occurred in southern Alaska, and wildland fire severity has increased. Working with partners at the Alaska Climate Science Center and the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning the NPS integrates quantitative, model-driven data with qualitative, participatory techniques to scenario creation. The approach enables managers to access and understand current climate change science in a form that is relevant for their decision making. Collaborative workshops conducted over the past two years grouped parks from Alaska's southwest, northwest, southeast, interior and central areas. The emphasis was to identify and connect

Negative and positive pretrial publicity affect juror memory and decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruva, Christine L; McEvoy, Cathy

2008-09-01

The experiment examined the effects of exposure to pretrial publicity (PTP) and delay on juror memory and decision-making. Mock jurors read news articles containing negative PTP, positive PTP, or unrelated articles. Five days later, they viewed a videotaped murder trial, after which they made decisions about guilt. Finally, all participants independently attributed specific information as having been presented during the trial or in the news articles. Half of the jurors rendered their verdicts and completed the source-memory test immediately after the trial, while the other half did so after a 2-day delay. Exposure to PTP significantly affected guilty verdicts, perceptions of defendant credibility, juror ratings of the prosecuting and defense attorneys, and misattributions of PTP as having been presented as trial evidence. Similar effects were obtained for negative and positive PTP. Delay significantly increased source-memory errors but did not influence guilt ratings. Defendant's credibility and juror ratings of prosecuting and defense attorneys significantly mediated the effect of PTP on guilt ratings. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

The corporation and the community: Credibility, legitimacy, and imposed risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wade, C.; Rosenthal, I.

1991-10-01

In this age of rapid changes, large segments of society no longer trust any institution or authority in regard to pronouncements on what is safe. Because of this distrust, the public has demanded and obtained increased rights for individuals to intervene directly in decisions affecting them. Rosenthal warns that an organization that just fulfills its legal requirements for safety is no longer doing enough. Industry leaders must work toward re-establishing credibility by identifying persons who are potentially at risk as a result of industry activities, involving them in the communication process, and justifying the firm's social benefits. Seeking social legitimacy, chemical manufacturers have formed self-assessment groups and community councils, which have reaped unexpected benefits but have forced them to deal with issues they would have preferred to avoid. To industry leaders who contend that these types of activities are not worth the effort, Rosenthal presents a timely warning. Government and business must reduce public concerns significantly and make stakeholders more willing to tolerate imposed risk because of perceived benefits. It the public's concern is not reduced, we will all be required to make greater and greater investments in an inefficient and largely fruitless pursuit of absolute safety. 16 refs

The corporation and the community: Credibility, legitimacy, and imposed risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wade, C. (ed.) (Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)); Rosenthal, I. (Pennsylvania Univ., Philadelphia, PA (United States). Center for Risk and Decision Processes)

1991-10-01

In this age of rapid changes, large segments of society no longer trust any institution or authority in regard to pronouncements on what is safe. Because of this distrust, the public has demanded and obtained increased rights for individuals to intervene directly in decisions affecting them. Rosenthal warns that an organization that just fulfills its legal requirements for safety is no longer doing enough. Industry leaders must work toward re-establishing credibility by identifying persons who are potentially at risk as a result of industry activities, involving them in the communication process, and justifying the firm's social benefits. Seeking social legitimacy, chemical manufacturers have formed self-assessment groups and community councils, which have reaped unexpected benefits but have forced them to deal with issues they would have preferred to avoid. To industry leaders who contend that these types of activities are not worth the effort, Rosenthal presents a timely warning. Government and business must reduce public concerns significantly and make stakeholders more willing to tolerate imposed risk because of perceived benefits. It the public's concern is not reduced, we will all be required to make greater and greater investments in an inefficient and largely fruitless pursuit of absolute safety. 16 refs.

Setting Proficiency Standards for School Leadership Assessment: An Examination of Cut Score Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Cravens, Xiu Chen; Goldring, Ellen B.; Porter, Andrew C.; Polikoff, Morgan S.; Murphy, Joseph; Elliott, Stephen N.

2013-01-01

Purpose: Performance evaluation informs professional development and helps school personnel improve student learning. Although psychometric literature indicates that a rational, sound, and coherent standard-setting process adds to the credibility of an assessment, few studies have empirically examined the decision-making process. This article…

Machine learning methods for credibility assessment of interviewees based on posturographic data.

Science.gov (United States)

Saripalle, Sashi K; Vemulapalli, Spandana; King, Gregory W; Burgoon, Judee K; Derakhshani, Reza

2015-01-01

This paper discusses the advantages of using posturographic signals from force plates for non-invasive credibility assessment. The contributions of our work are two fold: first, the proposed method is highly efficient and non invasive. Second, feasibility for creating an autonomous credibility assessment system using machine-learning algorithms is studied. This study employs an interview paradigm that includes subjects responding with truthful and deceptive intent while their center of pressure (COP) signal is being recorded. Classification models utilizing sets of COP features for deceptive responses are derived and best accuracy of 93.5% for test interval is reported.

Motivation and treatment credibility predict alliance in cognitive behavioral treatment for youth with anxiety disorders in community clinics.

Science.gov (United States)

Fjermestad, K W; Lerner, M D; McLeod, B D; Wergeland, G J H; Haugland, B S M; Havik, O E; Öst, L-G; Silverman, W K

2017-11-16

We examined whether motivation and treatment credibility predicted alliance in a 10-session cognitive behavioral treatment delivered in community clinics for youth anxiety disorders. Ninety-one clinic-referred youths (mean age  = 11.4 years, standard deviation = 2.1, range 8-15 years, 49.5% boys) with anxiety disorders-rated treatment motivation at pretreatment and perceived treatment credibility after session 1. Youths and therapists (YT) rated alliance after session 3 (early) and session 7 (late). Hierarchical linear models were applied to examine whether motivation and treatment credibility predicted YT early alliance, YT alliance change, and YT alliance agreement. Motivation predicted high early YT alliance, but not YT alliance change or alliance agreement. Youth-rated treatment credibility predicted high early youth alliance and high YT positive alliance change, but not early therapist alliance or alliance agreement. Conclusion Efforts to enhance youth motivation and treatment credibility early in treatment could facilitate the formation of a strong YT alliance. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Pengaruh Brand Credibility Terhadap Information Efficiency Dan Risk Reduction, Serta Dampaknya Atas Repurchase Intention

OpenAIRE

Faisal, Aekram

2015-01-01

This research conducted to know the influence of Brand Credibility to Information efficiency and Risk reduction, also the influence of Information efficiency and Risk reduction to Repurchase intention. This research aimed to know the influence of Brand Credibility to Repurchase intention that mediated by Information efficiency and Risk reduction. The methodology of this research is testing hypothesis research. The sample collecting by questionnaire of 150 respondents from Starb...

Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

2013-12-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

EXAMINING THE EFFECT OF ENDORSER CREDIBILITY ON THE CONSUMERS' BUYING INTENTIONS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY IN TURKEY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aysegul Ermec Sertoglu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to test whether the source credibility affects buying intention and measure the perceived credibility differences between created spokesperson and celebrity endorser. The influence that endorser credibility dimensions (i.e. attractiveness, trustworthiness and expertise have on purchase intentions of 326 young consumers has been examined. The results showed that all of the three credibility dimensions for both celebrity endorser and created spokesperson have a positive relationship with purchase intention. Created spokesperson is perceived to be more trustworthy and competent whereas the celebrity endorser is found to be more attractive by the respondents. This study is unique in a way that it covers fairly new and rapidly growing Turkish market. One factor that makes this study unique in Turkey, in which the usage of celebrity endorsers holds significant part in the marketing of products, is the lack of studies that would measure the effectiveness of this method.

A guideline to improve qualitative social science publishing in ecology and conservation journals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katie Moon

2016-09-01

Full Text Available A rise in qualitative social science manuscripts published in ecology and conservation journals speaks to the growing awareness of the importance of the human dimension in maintaining and improving Earth's ecosystems. Given the rise in the quantity of qualitative social science research published in ecology and conservation journals, it is worthwhile quantifying the extent to which this research is meeting established criteria for research design, conduct, and interpretation. Through a comprehensive review of this literature, we aimed to gather and assess data on the nature and extent of information presented on research design published qualitative research articles, which could be used to judge research quality. Our review was based on 146 studies from across nine ecology and conservation journals. We reviewed and summarized elements of quality that could be used by reviewers and readers to evaluate qualitative research (dependability, credibility, confirmability, and transferability; assessed the prevalence of these elements in research published in ecology and conservation journals; and explored the implications of sound qualitative research reporting for applying research findings. We found that dependability and credibility were reasonably well reported, albeit poorly evolved in relation to critical aspects of qualitative social science such as methodology and triangulation, including reflexivity. Confirmability was, on average, inadequately accounted for, particularly with respect to researchers' ontology, epistemology, or philosophical perspective and their choice of methodology. Transferability was often poorly developed in terms of triangulation methods and the suitability of the sample for answering the research question/s. Based on these findings, we provide a guideline that may be used to evaluate qualitative research presented in ecology and conservation journals to help secure the role of qualitative research and its application

Individual uncertainty and the uncertainty of science: The impact of perceived conflict and general self-efficacy on the perception of tentativeness and credibility of scientific information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danny eFlemming

2015-12-01

Full Text Available We examined in two empirical studies how situational and personal aspects of uncertainty influence laypeople’s understanding of the uncertainty of scientific information, with focus on the detection of tentativeness and perception of scientific credibility. In the first study (N = 48, we investigated the impact of a perceived conflict due to contradicting information as a situational, text-inherent aspect of uncertainty. The aim of the second study (N = 61 was to explore the role of general self-efficacy as an intra-personal uncertainty factor. In Study 1, participants read one of two versions of an introductory text in a between-group design. This text provided them with an overview about the neurosurgical procedure of deep brain stimulation (DBS. The text expressed a positive attitude toward DBS in one experimental condition or focused on the negative aspects of this method in the other condition. Then participants in both conditions read the same text that dealt with a study about DBS as experimental treatment in a small sample of patients with major depression. Perceived conflict between the two texts was found to increase the perception of tentativeness and to decrease the perception of scientific credibility, implicating that text-inherent aspects have significant effects on critical appraisal. The results of Study 2 demonstrated that participants with higher general self-efficacy detected the tentativeness to a lesser degree and assumed a higher level of scientific credibility, indicating a more naïve understanding of scientific information. This appears to be contradictory to large parts of previous findings that showed positive effects of high self-efficacy on learning. Both studies showed that perceived tentativeness and perceived scientific credibility of medical information contradicted each other. We conclude that there is a need for supporting laypeople in understanding the uncertainty of scientific information and that

A Science-Technology-Society Paradigm and Cross River State Secondary School Students' Scientific Literacy: Problem Solving and Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Umoren, Grace

2007-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of Science-Technology-Society (STS) curriculum on students' scientific literacy, problem solving and decision making. Four hundred and eighty (480) Senior Secondary two science and non-science students were randomly selected from intact classes in six secondary schools in Calabar Municipality of…

When the facts are just not enough: Credibly communicating about risk is riskier when emotions run high and time is short

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reynolds, Barbara J.

2011-01-01

When discussing risk with people, commonly subject matter experts believe that conveying the facts will be enough to allow people to assess a risk and respond rationally to that risk. Because of this expectation, experts often become exasperated by the seemingly illogical way people assess personal risk and choose to manage that risk. In crisis situations when the risk information is less defined and choices must be made within impossible time constraints, the thought processes may be even more susceptible to faulty heuristics. Understanding the perception of risk is essential to understanding why the public becomes more or less upset by events. This article explores the psychological underpinnings of risk assessment within emotionally laden events and the risk communication practices that may facilitate subject matter experts to provide the facts in a manner so they can be more certain those facts are being heard. Source credibility is foundational to risk communication practices. The public meeting is one example in which these best practices can be exercised. Risks are risky because risk perceptions differ and the psychosocial environment in which risk is discussed complicates making risk decisions. Experts who want to influence the actions of the public related to a threat or risk should understand that decisions often involve emotional as well as logical components. The media and other social entities will also influence the risk context. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention's crisis and emergency-risk communication (CERC) principles are intended to increase credibility and recognize emotional components of an event. During a risk event, CERC works to calm emotions and increase trust which can help people apply the expertise being offered by response officials.

I FEEL CONNECTED: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF STUDENT ENGAGEMENT AND LECTURERS’ CREDIBILITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Padma Pillai

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Communication is essential. Having the ability to communicate thoughts, ideas, and feelings is crucial in all environments. The education industry regards communication as a core business to transfer knowledge. This paper focuses on how two different groups of students at Sunway University, Malaysia, perceived Lecturers’ Credibility (LC in a class that enhances the Students’ Engagement (SE. A group of 50 to 60 students from the Faculty of Arts (FoA and School of Business (SoB completed measures of LC and SE using McCroskey and Teven’s (1999 Source Credibility Questionnaire (SCQ and Students Engagement Survey from Indicators of Positive Development Conference, Child Trends. The variables for LC comprise competence, character and caring (CCC, and the variables for SE consist of cognitive, behaviour and emotion (CBE. The study aims to determine if there are any differences in SE between students from FoA and SoB with their perceived LC. Hopefully, the study sheds some light on the research question: “Are there any differences among Faculty of Arts students and School of Business students in the relationship between lecturers’ credibility and students’ engagement?”

Boundary organizations to boundary chains: Prospects for advancing climate science application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christine J. Kirchhoff

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Adapting to climate change requires the production and use of climate information to inform adaptation decisions. By facilitating sustained interaction between science producers, boundary organizations narrow the gap between science and decision-making and foster the co-production of actionable knowledge. While traditional boundary organization approaches focused on intense one-on-one interactions between producers and users increases usability, this approach requires significant time and resources. Forming “boundary chains”, linking complimentary boundary organizations together, may reduce those costs. In this paper, we use longitudinal observations of a boundary chain, interviews and surveys to explore: (1 how producer-user interactions increase understanding and information usability and (2 if and how efficiencies in climate information production, dissemination and use arise as a result of the boundary chain. We find that forming and sustaining an effective boundary chain requires not only interest, commitment and investment from every link in the chain but also a level of non-overlapping mutual dependency and complementary skill sets. In this case, GLISA’s strength in producing scientific information and their credibility as climate scientists and HRWC’s strengths in facilitation, connection with potential information users, and their recognition and reputation in the watershed add value to the boundary chain enabling the boundary chain to accomplish more with greater efficiency than if each organization in the chain tried to work independently. Finally, data show how the boundary chain increased efficiencies in educating potential users about the strengths and limitations of climate science and improving the production, dissemination, and use of climate information.

Scientific risk communication about controversial issues influences public perceptions of scientists' political orientations and credibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Vraga, Emily; Myers, Teresa; Kotcher, John; Beall, Lindsey; Maibach, Ed

2018-02-01

Many scientists communicate with the public about risks associated with scientific issues, but such communication may have unintended consequences for how the public views the political orientations and the credibility of the communicating scientist. We explore this possibility using an experiment with a nationally representative sample of Americans in the fall of 2015. We find that risk communication on controversial scientific issues sometimes influences perceptions of the political orientations and credibility of the communicating scientist when the scientist addresses the risks of issues associated with conservative or liberal groups. This relationship is moderated by participant political ideology, with liberals adjusting their perceptions of the scientists' political beliefs more substantially when the scientist addressed the risks of marijuana use when compared with other issues. Conservatives' political perceptions were less impacted by the issue context of the scientific risk communication but indirectly influenced credibility perceptions. Our results support a contextual model of audience interpretation of scientific risk communication. Scientists should be cognizant that audience members may make inferences about the communicating scientist's political orientations and credibility when they engage in risk communication efforts about controversial issues.

Leo Szilard Lecturship Award: How can physicists help the public make better decisions about science and technology?

Science.gov (United States)

Primack, Joel

2016-03-01

For more than 40 years the APS has worked to improve governmental decision-making, mainly through the Congressional Science and Technology Fellowship program and through occasional studies of important science and technology issues. How productive have these been? How can the APS and other professional societies more effectively combat anti-science propaganda and help the public develop better-informed views about science and technology? How can individual scientists communicate scientific concepts in a more understandable and engaging way? How can we encourage young scientists and students to participate in creating a scientifically responsible future?

Currency option pricing in a credible exchange rate target zone

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veestraeten, D.

2013-01-01

This article examines currency option pricing within a credible target zone arrangement where interventions at the boundaries push the exchange rate back into its fluctuation band. Valuation of such options is complicated by the requirement that the reflection mechanism should prevent the arbitrage

Currency option pricing in a credible exchange rate target zone

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veestraeten, D.

2012-01-01

This article examines currency option pricing within a credible target zone arrangement where interventions at the boundaries push the exchange rate back into its fluctuation band. Valuation of such options is complicated by the requirement that the reflection mechanism should prevent the arbitrage

Student Perceptions of Peer Credibility Based on Email Addresses

Science.gov (United States)

Livermore, Jeffrey A.; Scafe, Marla G.; Wiechowski, Linda S.; Maier, David J.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate students' perceptions of their peer's credibility based on email addresses. The survey was conducted at a community college in Michigan where all students were registered and actively taking at least one course. The survey results show that a student's selection of an email address does influence other…

Student Perceptions of Faculty Credibility Based on Email Addresses

Science.gov (United States)

Livermore, Jeffrey A.; Scafe, Marla G.; Wiechowski, Linda S.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate students' perceptions of faculty credibility based on email addresses. The survey was conducted at an upper division business school in Michigan where all students have completed at least two years of college courses. The survey results show that a faculty member's selection of an email address does…

Navigating the boundary of science for decision making at the state and local level

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzales, L. M.; Wood, C.; Boland, M. A.; Rose, C. A.

2015-12-01

Scientific information should play a vital role in many decision making processes, yet issues incorporating geoscience information often arise due to inherent differences between how scientists and decision makers operate. Decision makers and scientists have different priorities, produce work at different rates, and often lack an understanding of each others' institutional constraints. Boundary organizations, entities that facilitate collaboration and information flow across traditional boundaries such as that between scientists and decision makers, are in a unique position to improve the dialogue between disparate groups. The American Geosciences Institute (AGI), a nonprofit federation of 50 geoscience societies and organizations, is linking the geoscience and decision-making communities through its Critical Issues Program. AGI's Critical Issues program has first-hand experience in improving the transfer of information across the science-decision making boundary, particularly in areas pertaining to water resources and hazards. This presentation will focus on how, by collaborating with organizations representing the decision making and geoscience communities to inform our program development, we have created our three main content types - website, webinar series, and research database - to better meet the needs of the decision-making process. The program presents existing geoscience information in a way that makes the interconnected nature of geoscience topics more easily understood, encourages discussion between the scientific and decision-making communities, and has established a trusted source of impartial geoscience information. These efforts have focused on state and local decision makers—groups that increasingly influence climate and risk-related decisions, yet often lack the resources to access and understand geoscience information.

New institutional mechanisms to bridge the information gap between climate science and public policy decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Rogers, W.; Gulledge, J. M.

2010-12-01

Many decision makers lack actionable scientific information needed to prepare for future challenges associated with climate change. Although the scope and quality of available scientific information has increased dramatically in recent years, this information does not always reach - or is not presented in a form that is useful to - decision makers who need it. The producer (i.e. scientists) community tends to be stovepiped, even though consumers (i.e. decision makers) often need interdisciplinary science and analysis. Consumers, who may also be stovepiped in various agencies or subject areas, may lack familiarity with or access to these separate communities, as well as the tools or time to navigate scientific information and disciplines. Closing the communication gap between these communities could be facilitated by institutionalizing processes designed for this purpose. We recommend a variety of mainstreaming policies within the consumer community, as well as mechanisms to generate a strong demand signal that will resonate more strongly with the producer community. We also recommend institutional reforms and methods of incentivizing policy-oriented scientific analysis within the producer community. Our recommendations focus on improving information flow to national security and foreign policy decision makers, but many are relevant to public policy writ large. Recommendations for Producers 1. The scientific community should formally encourage collaborations between natural and social scientists and reward publications in interdisciplinary outlets Incentives could include research funding and honorary awards recognizing service to public policy. 2. Academic merit review should reward research grants and publications targeted at interdisciplinary and/or policy-oriented audiences. Reforms of merit review may require new policies and engaged institutional leadership. Recommendations for Consumers 1. Congress should amend Title VI of the National Defense Education Act

History and Philosophy of Science through Models: The Case of Chemical Kinetics.

Science.gov (United States)

Justi, Rosaria; Gilbert, John K.

1999-01-01

A greater role for the history and philosophy of science in science education can only be realized if it is based on both a credible analytical approach--such as that of Lakatos--and if the evolution of a sufficient number of major themes in science is known in suitable detail. Considers chemical kinetics as an example topic. Contains 62…

Faculty Perceptions of Student Credibility Based on Email Addresses

Science.gov (United States)

Livermore, Jeffrey A.; Wiechowski, Linda S.; Scafe, Marla G.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate faculty perceptions of student credibility based on email addresses. The survey was conducted at an upper division business school in Michigan where all students have completed at least two years of college courses. The survey results show that a student's selection of an email address does influence the…

Chapter 8: The credibility crisis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poumadere, M.

1991-01-01

In the credibility crisis, a generalized state of conflicting cognitions is probably prevalent, along with possible individual and social pathologies. These cognitive conflicts and emotional traumas are linked to both the characteristics of Chernobyl as a human-made disaster and the specific nature of Chernobyl as a nuclear disaster. Three major elements as constituents of this nature are identified: The rupture of a social contract, the loss of a socially valued object, and the sudden removal of established distances. Further research and basic information are needed in this area where little specific observation is reported. A better grasp of the impact of nuclear energy on our societies can lead to better adapted policy, increased local and social solidarity, more decentralized initiative and risk management, and better organized primary prevention in nuclear disaster. (orig./DG)

Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2005-01-01

Stock of Naturalistic Decision Making," Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 14, No. 5, 2001, pp. 331-352. Llinas, James, Ann Bisantz, Colin Drury ...on aided adversarial decisionmaking (Llinas, Bisantz, Drury , Song, and Jian, 1998). Cohen argues for a situation-specific trust model: The problem of...and P. Fishwick, eds., 2000, pp. 1739-1746. Camerer, Colin F., "Individual Decision Making," in John H. Kagel and Alvin E. Roth, eds., Handbook of

Luka Brajnović – From Fidelity to Oneself towards Credibility of Profession

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danijel Labaš

2010-12-01

Full Text Available In certain periods, at certain places and in certain media, the reputation and credibility of the journalistic profession has suff ered for a number of reasons, including ignorance, mediocrity, dishonorable or morally questionable methods of journalists, or scandalous, fabricated or partial news stories. This is the opinion of Luka Brajnović, whose reflections in a comparative analysis with other authors comprise the ”contemplative axis” of this article. The fundamental task and goal of this article is to present and analyze Mr Brajnović’s refl ections on the possibility of saving or restoring the reputation and credibility of the journalistic profession. Journalists and the media will not be able to restore credibility as long as extravagant ideas exist about journalism as a profession that deals with ”public whispering, accusations and dissatisfaction with everything that has been established, or as a neutral profession that is ethically hybrid and indifferent towards good and evil”. Such an understanding of the journalistic profession runs against a positive image and reputation of journalism, a fi eld which is in itself worthy of respect of the entire public. In journalism, just as in other professions, unethical behavior on the part of a small number of journalists and media outlets casts a shadow on the journalistic profession as a whole, causing the reputation of the profession to become dependent upon a positive image and the reputation of those individuals working in it. As results of this article show – which for the fi rst time analytically approaches the scientific arguments and refl ections of Mr Brajnović in the Croatian public sphere – ethical and intellectual health, which can restore credibility to the journalistic profession, are the very elements rooted deep inside of it.

How influencers’ credibility on Instagram is perceived by consumers and its impact on purchase intention

OpenAIRE

Rebelo, Marta Figueiredo

2017-01-01

The purpose of this thesis is to understand the perception Instagram users, in other words consumers, have of influencers they follow on Instagram. Consumer perceived credibility of influencers, and its impact on the purchase intention, is therefore studied. This dissertation aims to highlight which credibility dimensions better explain the purchase intention. Gender is also explored to verify behavior differences between female and male consumers. To better analyze the perc...

Resonant communicators, effective communicators. Communicator’s flow and credibility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irene García-Ureta, Ph.D

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Communication studies have been integrating the latest developments in cognitive sciences and acknowledging the importance of understanding the subjective processes involved in communication. This article argues that communication studies should also take into account the psychology of the communicator. This article presents the theoretical basis and the results of a training programme designed for audiovisual communicators. The programme is based on the theories of self-efficacy and flow and seeks to improve students’ communication competencies through the use of presentation techniques and psychological skills to tackle communication apprehension. The programme involves an active methodology that is based on modelling, visualisation, immediate feedback and positive reinforcement. A repeated-measures ANOVA shows that the programme successfully decreases the level of communication apprehension, improves the perceived self-efficacy, improves the psychological state needed to perform better in front of the cameras (flow, and improves students’ communication skills. A path analysis proved that the perceived self-efficacy and anxiety levels predict the level of flow during the communication act. At the end of the training programme, those who experienced higher levels of flow and enjoyment during the communication task achieved higher quality levels in their communication exercise. It is concluded that the concepts of self-efficacy and flow facilitate advancing in the understanding of the factors that determine a communicator’s credibility and ability to connect with the audience.

Practical differences among probabilities, possibilities, and credibilities

Science.gov (United States)

Grandin, Jean-Francois; Moulin, Caroline

2002-03-01

This paper presents some important differences that exist between theories, which allow the uncertainty management in data fusion. The main comparative results illustrated in this paper are the followings: Incompatibility between decisions got from probabilities and credibilities is highlighted. In the dynamic frame, as remarked in [19] or [17], belief and plausibility of Dempster-Shafer model do not frame the Bayesian probability. This framing can however be obtained by the Modified Dempster-Shafer approach. It also can be obtained in the Bayesian framework either by simulation techniques, or with a studentization. The uncommitted in the Dempster-Shafer way, e.g. the mass accorded to the ignorance, gives a mechanism similar to the reliability in the Bayesian model. Uncommitted mass in Dempster-Shafer theory or reliability in Bayes theory act like a filter that weakens extracted information, and improves robustness to outliners. So, it is logical to observe on examples like the one presented particularly by D.M. Buede, a faster convergence of a Bayesian method that doesn't take into account the reliability, in front of Dempster-Shafer method which uses uncommitted mass. But, on Bayesian masses, if reliability is taken into account, at the same level that the uncommited, e.g. F=1-m, we observe an equivalent rate for convergence. When Dempster-Shafer and Bayes operator are informed by uncertainty, faster or lower convergence can be exhibited on non Bayesian masses. This is due to positive or negative synergy between information delivered by sensors. This effect is a direct consequence of non additivity when considering non Bayesian masses. Unknowledge of the prior in bayesian techniques can be quickly compensated by information accumulated as time goes on by a set of sensors. All these results are presented on simple examples, and developed when necessary.

Data Science and its Relationship to Big Data and Data-Driven Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Provost, Foster; Fawcett, Tom

2013-03-01

Companies have realized they need to hire data scientists, academic institutions are scrambling to put together data-science programs, and publications are touting data science as a hot-even "sexy"-career choice. However, there is confusion about what exactly data science is, and this confusion could lead to disillusionment as the concept diffuses into meaningless buzz. In this article, we argue that there are good reasons why it has been hard to pin down exactly what is data science. One reason is that data science is intricately intertwined with other important concepts also of growing importance, such as big data and data-driven decision making. Another reason is the natural tendency to associate what a practitioner does with the definition of the practitioner's field; this can result in overlooking the fundamentals of the field. We believe that trying to define the boundaries of data science precisely is not of the utmost importance. We can debate the boundaries of the field in an academic setting, but in order for data science to serve business effectively, it is important (i) to understand its relationships to other important related concepts, and (ii) to begin to identify the fundamental principles underlying data science. Once we embrace (ii), we can much better understand and explain exactly what data science has to offer. Furthermore, only once we embrace (ii) should we be comfortable calling it data science. In this article, we present a perspective that addresses all these concepts. We close by offering, as examples, a partial list of fundamental principles underlying data science.

Serving California's Science and Governance Needs through Crisis-driven Collaborations

Science.gov (United States)

Bernacchi, L.

2015-12-01

Due to its magnitude, the ongoing drought in California (USA) serves as an experimental space for innovative resource management and will define responses to predicted widespread drought. Due to the magnitude of its effect on humans and natural ecosystems and the water resources on which they depend, governmental programs are granting support to scientifically-valid, locally-produced solutions to water scarcity. Concurrently, University of California Water (UC Water) Security and Sustainability Research Initiative is focused on strategic research to build the knowledge base for better water resources management. This paper examines how a team of transdisciplinary scientists are engaged in water governance and information, providing examples of actionable research successfully implemented by decision makers. From a sociology of science perspective, UC Water scientists were interviewed about their engagement practices with California water decision makers. Their "co-production of knowledge" relationships produce effective responses to climatic, landcover and population changes by expanding from singularly information-based, unidirectional communication to governance-relevant, co-constructed knowledge and wisdom. This is accomplished by serving on decision making organizational boards and developing information in a productive format. The perceived crisis of California's drought is an important impetus in cross-sector collaborations, and in combination with governance and institution parameters, defines the inquiry and decision space. We conclude by describing a process of clear problem-solution definition made possible through transparent communication, salient and credible information, and relevant tools and techniques for interpreting scientific findings.

Mentalizing skills do not differentiate believers from non-believers, but credibility enhancing displays do.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David L R Maij

Full Text Available The ability to mentalize has been marked as an important cognitive mechanism enabling belief in supernatural agents. In five studies we cross-culturally investigated the relationship between mentalizing and belief in supernatural agents with large sample sizes (over 67,000 participants in total and different operationalizations of mentalizing. The relative importance of mentalizing for endorsing supernatural beliefs was directly compared with credibility enhancing displays-the extent to which people observed credible religious acts during their upbringing. We also compared autistic with neurotypical adolescents. The empathy quotient and the autism-spectrum quotient were not predictive of belief in supernatural agents in all countries (i.e., The Netherlands, Switzerland and the United States, although we did observe a curvilinear effect in the United States. We further observed a strong influence of credibility enhancing displays on belief in supernatural agents. These findings highlight the importance of cultural learning for acquiring supernatural beliefs and ask for reconsiderations of the importance of mentalizing.

The relationship between clients' depression etiological beliefs and psychotherapy orientation preferences, expectations, and credibility beliefs.

Science.gov (United States)

Tompkins, Kelley A; Swift, Joshua K; Rousmaniere, Tony G; Whipple, Jason L

2017-06-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between clients' etiological beliefs for depression and treatment preferences, credibility beliefs, and outcome expectations for five different depression treatments-behavioral activation, cognitive therapy, interpersonal psychotherapy, pharmacotherapy, and psychodynamic psychotherapy. Adult psychotherapy clients (N = 98) were asked to complete an online survey that included the Reasons for Depression Questionnaire, a brief description of each of the five treatment options, and credibility, expectancy, and preference questions for each option. On average, the participating clients rated pharmacotherapy as significantly less credible, having a lower likelihood of success, and being less preferred than the four types of psychotherapy. In general, interpersonal psychotherapy was also rated more negatively than the other types of psychotherapy. However, these findings depended somewhat on whether the participating client was personally experiencing depression. Credibility beliefs, outcome expectations, and preferences for pharmacotherapy were positively associated with biological beliefs for depression; however, the other hypothesized relationships between etiological beliefs and treatment attitudes were not supported. Although the study is limited based on the specific sample and treatment descriptions that were used, the results may still have implications for psychotherapy research, training, and practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Crossing Science-Policy-Societal Boundaries to Reduce Scientific and Institutional Uncertainty in Small-Scale Fisheries

Science.gov (United States)

Sutton, Abigail M.; Rudd, Murray A.

2016-10-01

The governance of small-scale fisheries (SSF) is challenging due to the uncertainty, complexity, and interconnectedness of social, political, ecological, and economical processes. Conventional SSF management has focused on a centralized and top-down approach. A major criticism of conventional management is the over-reliance on `expert science' to guide decision-making and poor consideration of fishers' contextually rich knowledge. That is thought to exacerbate the already low governance potential of SSF. Integrating scientific knowledge with fishers' knowledge is increasingly popular and is often assumed to help reduce levels of biophysical and institutional uncertainties. Many projects aimed at encouraging knowledge integration have, however, been unsuccessful. Our objective in this research was to assess factors that influence knowledge integration and the uptake of integrated knowledge into policy-making. We report results from 54 semi-structured interviews with SSF researchers and practitioners from around the globe. Our analysis is framed in terms of scientific credibility, societal legitimacy, and policy saliency, and we discuss cases that have been partially or fully successful in reducing uncertainty via push-and-pull-oriented boundary crossing initiatives. Our findings suggest that two important factors affect the science-policy-societal boundary: a lack of consensus among stakeholders about what constitutes credible knowledge and institutional uncertainty resulting from shifting policies and leadership change. A lack of training for scientific leaders and an apparent `shelf-life' for community organizations highlight the importance of ongoing institutional support for knowledge integration projects. Institutional support may be enhanced through such investments, such as capacity building and specialized platforms for knowledge integration.

Crossing Science-Policy-Societal Boundaries to Reduce Scientific and Institutional Uncertainty in Small-Scale Fisheries.

Science.gov (United States)

Sutton, Abigail M; Rudd, Murray A

2016-10-01

The governance of small-scale fisheries (SSF) is challenging due to the uncertainty, complexity, and interconnectedness of social, political, ecological, and economical processes. Conventional SSF management has focused on a centralized and top-down approach. A major criticism of conventional management is the over-reliance on 'expert science' to guide decision-making and poor consideration of fishers' contextually rich knowledge. That is thought to exacerbate the already low governance potential of SSF. Integrating scientific knowledge with fishers' knowledge is increasingly popular and is often assumed to help reduce levels of biophysical and institutional uncertainties. Many projects aimed at encouraging knowledge integration have, however, been unsuccessful. Our objective in this research was to assess factors that influence knowledge integration and the uptake of integrated knowledge into policy-making. We report results from 54 semi-structured interviews with SSF researchers and practitioners from around the globe. Our analysis is framed in terms of scientific credibility, societal legitimacy, and policy saliency, and we discuss cases that have been partially or fully successful in reducing uncertainty via push-and-pull-oriented boundary crossing initiatives. Our findings suggest that two important factors affect the science-policy-societal boundary: a lack of consensus among stakeholders about what constitutes credible knowledge and institutional uncertainty resulting from shifting policies and leadership change. A lack of training for scientific leaders and an apparent 'shelf-life' for community organizations highlight the importance of ongoing institutional support for knowledge integration projects. Institutional support may be enhanced through such investments, such as capacity building and specialized platforms for knowledge integration.

Completing the Link between Exposure Science and Toxicology for Improved Environmental Health Decision Making: The Aggregate Exposure Pathway Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Teeguarden, Justin G; Tan, Yu-Mei; Edwards, Stephen W; Leonard, Jeremy A; Anderson, Kim A; Corley, Richard A; Kile, Molly L; Simonich, Staci M; Stone, David; Tanguay, Robert L; Waters, Katrina M; Harper, Stacey L; Williams, David E

2016-05-03

Driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computation, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the "systems approaches" used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concept in the toxicological sciences. Aggregate exposure pathways offer an intuitive framework to organize exposure data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathways and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum for more meaningful integration of exposure assessment and hazard identification. Together, the two frameworks form and inform a decision-making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based, or exposure-based decision making.

Deflation Risk in the Euro Area and Central Bank Credibility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

G. Galati (Gabriele); Z. Gorgi (Zion); R. Moessner (Richhild); C. Zhou (Chen)

2016-01-01

textabstractThis paper investigates how the perceived risk that the euro area will experience deflation has evolved over time, and what this risk implies for the credibility of the ECB. We use a novel data set on market participants’ perceptions of short- to long-term deflation risk implied by

When the facts are just not enough: credibly communicating about risk is riskier when emotions run high and time is short.

Science.gov (United States)

Reynolds, Barbara J

2011-07-15

When discussing risk with people, commonly subject matter experts believe that conveying the facts will be enough to allow people to assess a risk and respond rationally to that risk. Because of this expectation, experts often become exasperated by the seemingly illogical way people assess personal risk and choose to manage that risk. In crisis situations when the risk information is less defined and choices must be made within impossible time constraints, the thought processes may be even more susceptible to faulty heuristics. Understanding the perception of risk is essential to understanding why the public becomes more or less upset by events. This article explores the psychological underpinnings of risk assessment within emotionally laden events and the risk communication practices that may facilitate subject matter experts to provide the facts in a manner so they can be more certain those facts are being heard. Source credibility is foundational to risk communication practices. The public meeting is one example in which these best practices can be exercised. Risks are risky because risk perceptions differ and the psychosocial environment in which risk is discussed complicates making risk decisions. Experts who want to influence the actions of the public related to a threat or risk should understand that decisions often involve emotional as well as logical components. The media and other social entities will also influence the risk context. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention's crisis and emergency-risk communication (CERC) principles are intended to increase credibility and recognize emotional components of an event. During a risk event, CERC works to calm emotions and increase trust which can help people apply the expertise being offered by response officials. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Questioning History, Nationality and Identity in Timberlake Wertenbaker’s Credible Witness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nursen Gömceli

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to examine the Anglo-American playwright Timberlake Wertenbaker’s approach to the issues of history, nationality and identity in her play Credible Witness (2001, and to discuss the significance of these concepts in our modern world through a close analysis of the play. In Credible Witness, the playwright brings together people from diverse countries, such as Sri Lanka, Algeria, Eritrea, Somalia and Macedonia in a detention centre in London, and via the stories of these asylum seekers, and particularly through the dramatic encounter between Petra, a Macedonian woman with strong nationalistic pride, and her son Alexander, a history teacher forced to seek refuge in Britain for political reasons, Wertenbaker tries to demonstrate “what happens to people when they step outside, or are forced outside, their history, their identity” (Aston 2003, 13.

Eletronuclear's relationship with the Brazilian media: transparency and credibility

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alvarez, Gloria, E-mail: galvarez@eletronuclear.gov.br [Eletrobras Termonuclear S.A. (ELETRONUCLEAR), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2013-07-01

In a capitalist economy the most valued assets are not money, shares or facilities, but credibility. Lack of money can ruin a company, but often it is reputation that delivers the final blow. It has become challenging to safeguard reputation in a world where Communication is increasingly connected and with such an intense and lightning fast flow of information. This is particularly true for the electricity sector - a commodity so prevalent in everyday modern life, but, whose business dealings, are hardly known by the general public. When it comes to nuclear energy, the challenge of establishing an effective Communication with transparency and credibility touches on even more complex elements. The topic of this paper is the scenario through which the Communication process, along with its characteristics and approaches, unfolds between the nuclear sector and the Brazilian media. (author)

The Figured Worlds of High School Science Teachers: Uncovering Three-Dimensional Assessment Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Ewald, Megan

As a result of recent mandates of the Next Generation Science Standards, assessments are a "system of meaning" amidst a paradigm shift toward three-dimensional assessments. This study is motivated by two research questions: 1) how do high school science teachers describe their processes of decision-making in the development and use of three-dimensional assessments and 2) how do high school science teachers negotiate their identities as assessors in designing three-dimensional assessments. An important factor in teachers' assessment decision making is how they identify themselves as assessors. Therefore, this study investigated the teachers' roles as assessors through the Sociocultural Identity Theory. The most important contribution from this study is the emergent teacher assessment sub-identities: the modifier-recycler , the feeler-finder, and the creator. Using a qualitative phenomenological research design, focus groups, three-series interviews, think-alouds, and document analysis were utilized in this study. These qualitative methods were chosen to elicit rich conversations among teachers, make meaning of the teachers' experiences through in-depth interviews, amplify the thought processes of individual teachers while making assessment decisions, and analyze assessment documents in relation to teachers' perspectives. The findings from this study suggest that--of the 19 participants--only two teachers could consistently be identified as creators and aligned their assessment practices with NGSS. However, assessment sub-identities are not static and teachers may negotiate their identities from one moment to the next within socially constructed realms of interpretation known as figured worlds. Because teachers are positioned in less powerful figured worlds within the dominant discourse of standardization, this study raises awareness as to how the external pressures from more powerful figured worlds socially construct teachers' identities as assessors. For teachers

Complex Systems Models and Their Applications: Towards a New Science of Verification, Validation & Uncertainty Quantification

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tsao, Jeffrey Y. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Trucano, Timothy G. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kleban, Stephen D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Naugle, Asmeret Bier [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Verzi, Stephen Joseph [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Swiler, Laura Painton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, Curtis M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Smith, Mark A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Flanagan, Tatiana Paz [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vugrin, Eric D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gabert, Kasimir Georg [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lave, Matthew Samuel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Chen, Wei [Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States); DeLaurentis, Daniel [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States); Hubler, Alfred [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States); Oberkampf, Bill [WLO Consulting, Austin, TX (United States)

2016-08-01

This report contains the written footprint of a Sandia-hosted workshop held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, June 22-23, 2016 on “Complex Systems Models and Their Applications: Towards a New Science of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification,” as well as of pre-work that fed into the workshop. The workshop’s intent was to explore and begin articulating research opportunities at the intersection between two important Sandia communities: the complex systems (CS) modeling community, and the verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) community The overarching research opportunity (and challenge) that we ultimately hope to address is: how can we quantify the credibility of knowledge gained from complex systems models, knowledge that is often incomplete and interim, but will nonetheless be used, sometimes in real-time, by decision makers?

Perceptions of Credibility of Male and Female Syndicated Political Columnists.

Science.gov (United States)

Andsager, Julie L.

1990-01-01

Examines perceptions of the credibility of male and female syndicated political columnists. Finds that college students exhibited little prejudice against female versus male bylines in political interpretive columns. Finds a small tendency for male readers to evaluate male bylines higher in stereotypical ways, but female readers do not do this.…

Consistency between verbal and non-verbal affective cues: a clue to speaker credibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Gillis, Randall L; Nilsen, Elizabeth S

2017-06-01

Listeners are exposed to inconsistencies in communication; for example, when speakers' words (i.e. verbal) are discrepant with their demonstrated emotions (i.e. non-verbal). Such inconsistencies introduce ambiguity, which may render a speaker to be a less credible source of information. Two experiments examined whether children make credibility discriminations based on the consistency of speakers' affect cues. In Experiment 1, school-age children (7- to 8-year-olds) preferred to solicit information from consistent speakers (e.g. those who provided a negative statement with negative affect), over novel speakers, to a greater extent than they preferred to solicit information from inconsistent speakers (e.g. those who provided a negative statement with positive affect) over novel speakers. Preschoolers (4- to 5-year-olds) did not demonstrate this preference. Experiment 2 showed that school-age children's ratings of speakers were influenced by speakers' affect consistency when the attribute being judged was related to information acquisition (speakers' believability, "weird" speech), but not general characteristics (speakers' friendliness, likeability). Together, findings suggest that school-age children are sensitive to, and use, the congruency of affect cues to determine whether individuals are credible sources of information.

CPSFS: A Credible Personalized Spam Filtering Scheme by Crowdsourcing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xin Liu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Email spam consumes a lot of network resources and threatens many systems because of its unwanted or malicious content. Most existing spam filters only target complete-spam but ignore semispam. This paper proposes a novel and comprehensive CPSFS scheme: Credible Personalized Spam Filtering Scheme, which classifies spam into two categories: complete-spam and semispam, and targets filtering both kinds of spam. Complete-spam is always spam for all users; semispam is an email identified as spam by some users and as regular email by other users. Most existing spam filters target complete-spam but ignore semispam. In CPSFS, Bayesian filtering is deployed at email servers to identify complete-spam, while semispam is identified at client side by crowdsourcing. An email user client can distinguish junk from legitimate emails according to spam reports from credible contacts with the similar interests. Social trust and interest similarity between users and their contacts are calculated so that spam reports are more accurately targeted to similar users. The experimental results show that the proposed CPSFS can improve the accuracy rate of distinguishing spam from legitimate emails compared with that of Bayesian filter alone.

Civil Society and the Conduct of Free, Fair and Credible Election ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Civil Society and the Conduct of Free, Fair and Credible Election: Lessons from ... of Non Governmental agencies like civil society to prevent the government of the ... fair so as to rid the continent of its notorious record of post election violence.

Investigating the impact of viral message appeal and message credibility on consumer attitude toward brand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Majid Esmaeilpour

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Background - Due to the rapid growth of the Internet and use of e-commerce in recent years, viral marketing has drawn the attention of manufacturing and service organizations. However, no research has been conducted to examine the impact of message appeal and message source credibility on consumers' attitude with mediating role of intellectual involvement of consumers and their risk taking level. Purpose - The aim of this study was to examine the impact of appeal and message source credibility on consumers’ attitude with mediating role of consumers’ intellectual involvement and their risk taking level. Design/methodology/approach – The population of this study includes consumers of mobile phones (Samsung, Sony, Nokia, LG and iPhone in Bushehr city (Iran. As the population of the study is unlimited, 430 questionnaires were distributed using available sampling method, and 391 questionnaires were collected and analyzed. Using structural equation modeling, data were analyzed through smart PLS software. Findings –The results show that the appeal and credibility of the message source have impact on consumer attitudes toward the brand. It was also found that intellectual involvement of consumers plays the mediating role in the relationship between message appeal and consumer attitudes toward brand. In the relationship between message source credibility and customer attitude towards the brand, the level of risk taking of people has no mediating role. Research limitations/implications – Data collection tool was questionnaire in this study, and questionnaire has some disadvantages that can affect the results. Additionally, this study was conducted in Bushehr city (Iran. Therefore, we should be cautious in generalizing the findings. Originality/value – In this study, the effect of message appeal and message source credibility on consumer attitude to brand was examined. The risk taking level of consumer and his involvement level were considered

Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

2011-09-01

Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Ocean Science for Decision-Making: Current Activities of the National Research Council's Ocean Studies Board

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, S.; Glickson, D.; Mengelt, C.; Forrest, S.; Waddell, K.

2012-12-01

The National Research Council is a private, nonprofit organization chartered by Congress in 1916 as an expansion of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. Its mission is to improve the use of science in government decision making and public policy, increase public understanding, and promote the acquisition and dissemination of knowledge in matters involving science, engineering, technology, and health. Within the National Research Council, the Ocean Studies Board (OSB) mission is to explore the science, policies, and infrastructure needed to understand, manage, and conserve coastal and marine environments and resources. OSB undertakes studies and workshops on emerging scientific and policy issues at the request of federal agencies, Congress, and others; provides program reviews and guidance; and facilitates communication on oceanographic issues among different sectors. OSB also serves as the U.S. National Committee to the international, nongovernmental Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR). OSB has produced reports on a wide range of topics of interest to researchers and educators, the federal government, the non-profit sector, and industry. Recent reports have focused on ecosystem services in the Gulf of Mexico after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, sea level rise on the U.S. west coast, scientific ocean drilling needs and accomplishments, requirements for sustained ocean color measurements, critical infrastructure for ocean research, tsunami warning and preparedness, ocean acidification, and marine and hydrokinetic power resource assessments. Studies that are currently underway include responding to oil spills in the Arctic, evaluating the effectiveness of fishery stock rebuilding plans, and reviewing the National Ocean Acidification Research Plan. OSB plays an important role in helping create policy decisions and disseminating important information regarding various aspects of ocean science.

ESD practice through global approach -7-year practices of developing science lessen modules and fostering integrated decision making ability-

Science.gov (United States)

Kajiyama, Kosei

2016-04-01

Hiroshima University High School (HUHS) has devised and carried out overseas exchange programs on ESD issues for 7 years. These programs have been carried out as a part of a government-aided project called SSH (Super Science High School) *1. To start with, we had cooperative study program with a school in Germany in 2009, and next year with a school in Korea, and then gradually have expanded the cooperative schools. Since 2013, we have worked with schools in four countries; Korea, Thailand, Czech and Germany. Science lesson modules here refers to an assembly of a set of lessons, newly developed and improved for the project. These modules characteristically require the students to make decisions by themselves on given problems. In the course of the decision making, students learn what kind of data or facts should be presented as evidence and how they can make their decisions known to others. Among several modules we have designed, the one introduced here deals with the use of solar energy, which we carried out with a school in Korea in 2014-2015. It also includes lessons of the fuel cells using energy from hydrogen gas generated by solar cells. It aims to develop global human resources through carefully planned activities. First, the students of both schools make mixed groups and conduct experiments in physics, chemistry or biology on a given problem related to solar energy. Then they discuss in groups using data obtained from the experiments and through the Internet as evidence. After the thorough discussion, each group gives a presentation on their decision. The analysis of the presentations and the questionnaire to the students revealed the following points: 1) Students have come to have multidimensional perspectives on the utilization of solar energy. 2) Students have come to combine the results of different experiments when making decisions. 3) Students have developed flexible attitudes toward other cultures. 4) Students have developed communication skills in

Predictors of premature termination from psychotherapy for anorexia nervosa: Low treatment credibility, early therapy alliance, and self-transcendence.

Science.gov (United States)

Jordan, Jennifer; McIntosh, Virginia V W; Carter, Frances A; Joyce, Peter R; Frampton, Christopher M A; Luty, Suzanne E; McKenzie, Janice M; Carter, Janet D; Bulik, Cynthia M

2017-08-01

Failure to complete treatment for anorexia nervosa (AN) is- common, clinically concerning but difficult to predict. This study examines whether therapy-related factors (patient-rated pretreatment credibility and early therapeutic alliance) predict subsequent premature termination of treatment (PTT) alongside self-transcendence (a previously identified clinical predictor) in women with AN. 56 women aged 17-40 years participating in a randomized outpatient psychotherapy trial for AN. Treatment completion was defined as attending 15/20 planned sessions. Measures were the Treatment Credibility, Temperament and Character Inventory, Vanderbilt Therapeutic Alliance Scale and the Vanderbilt Psychotherapy Process Scale. Statistics were univariate tests, correlations, and logistic regression. Treatment credibility and certain early patient and therapist alliance/process subscales predicted PTT. Lower self-transcendence and lower early process accounted for 33% of the variance in predicting PTT. Routine assessment of treatment credibility and early process (comprehensively assessed from multiple perspectives) may help clinicians reduce PTT thereby enhancing treatment outcomes. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

UQ for Decision Making: How (at least five) Kinds of Probability Might Come Into Play

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, L. A.

2013-12-01

information the model-based probability is conditioned on holds. It is argued that no model-based climate-like probability forecast is complete without a quantitative estimate of its own irrelevance, and that the clear identification of model-based probability forecasts as mature or immature, are critical elements for maintaining the credibility of science-based decision support, and can shape uncertainty quantification more widely.

Factors that optimise the credibility of advertisements whilst promoting feelings of emotional well-being and satisfaction

OpenAIRE

Duck, Nicholas

2017-01-01

The aim of this thesis is to demonstrate that advertisements that challenge the security of consumers can undermine the impact and lasting influence of these messages. Conversely, advertisements could be used to evoke feelings of security and enhance emotional well-being whilst optimising the credibility and impact of messages. Specifically, research demonstrates that advertisements might elicit different motivational styles, referred to as an individual’s regulatory focus. The credibility of...

Influence of Source Credibility on Consumer Acceptance of Genetically Modified Foods in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingyang Zhang

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the reasoning mechanism behind the consumer acceptance of genetically modified foods (GMFs in China, and investigates influence of source credibility on consumer acceptance of GMFs. Based on the original Persuasion Model—which was developed by Carl Hovland, an American psychologist and pioneer in the study of communication and its effect on attitudes and beliefs—we conducted a survey using multistage sampling from 1167 urban residents, which were proportionally selected from six cities in three economic regions (south, central, and north in the Jiangsu province through face to face interviews. Mixed-process regression that could correct endogeneity and ordered probit model were used to test the impact of source credibility on consumers’ acceptance of GMFs. Our major finding was that consumer acceptance of GMFs is affected by such factors as information source credibility, general attitudes, gender, and education levels. The reliability of biotechnology research institutes, government offices devoted to management of GM organisms (GMOs, and GMO technological experts have expedited urban consumer acceptance of GM soybean oil. However, public acceptance can also decrease as faith in the environmental organization. We also found that ignorance of the endogeneity of above mentioned source significantly undervalued its effect on consumers’ acceptance. Moreover, the remaining three sources (non-GMO experts, food companies, and anonymous information found on the Internet had almost no effect on consumer acceptance. Surprisingly, the more educated people in our survey were more skeptical towards GMFs. Our results contribute to the behavioral literature on consumer attitudes toward GMFs by developing a reasoning mechanism determining consumer acceptance of GMFs. Particularly, this paper quantitatively studied the influence of different source credibility on consumer acceptance of GMFs by using mixed-process regression to

Public Affairs: An Operational Planning Function to Safeguard Credibility and Public Opinion

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Cutler, Dawn

2004-01-01

... context throughout all phases of conflict. Although the target audiences may differ when a commander is considering message dissemination through either the PA or IC channel, the consistency of the messages is important to credibility...

The Effects of Source Credibility in the Presence or Absence of Prior Attitudes: Implications for the Design of Persuasive Communication Campaigns.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumkale, G Tarcan; Albarracín, Dolores; Seignourel, Paul J

2010-06-01

Most theories of persuasion predict that limited ability and motivation to think about communications should increase the impact of source credibility on persuasion. Furthermore, this effect is assumed to occur, regardless of whether or not the recipients have prior attitudes. In this study, the effects of source credibility, ability, and motivation (knowledge, message repetition, relevance) on persuasion were examined meta-analytically across both attitude formation and change conditions. Findings revealed that the Source Credibility × Ability/Motivation interaction emerged only when participants lacked prior attitudes and were unable to form a new attitude based on the message content. In such settings, the effects of source credibility decayed rapidly. The implications of these findings for applied communication campaigns are discussed.

Building confidence and credibility amid growing model and computing complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, K. J.; Mahajan, S.; Veneziani, C.; Kennedy, J. H.

2017-12-01

As global Earth system models are developed to answer an ever-wider range of science questions, software products that provide robust verification, validation, and evaluation must evolve in tandem. Measuring the degree to which these new models capture past behavior, predict the future, and provide the certainty of predictions is becoming ever more challenging for reasons that are generally well known, yet are still challenging to address. Two specific and divergent needs for analysis of the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) model - but with a similar software philosophy - are presented to show how a model developer-based focus can address analysis needs during expansive model changes to provide greater fidelity and execute on multi-petascale computing facilities. A-PRIME is a python script-based quick-look overview of a fully-coupled global model configuration to determine quickly if it captures specific behavior before significant computer time and expense is invested. EVE is an ensemble-based software framework that focuses on verification of performance-based ACME model development, such as compiler or machine settings, to determine the equivalence of relevant climate statistics. The challenges and solutions for analysis of multi-petabyte output data are highlighted from the aspect of the scientist using the software, with the aim of fostering discussion and further input from the community about improving developer confidence and community credibility.

Human-centric decision-making models for social sciences

CERN Document Server

Pedrycz, Witold

2014-01-01

The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on  comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...

Misunderstood misunderstanding: social identities and public uptake of science

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wynne, B.

1992-01-01

This paper draws general insights into the public reception of scientific knowledge from a case study of Cumbrian sheep farmers' responses to scientific advice about the restrictions introduced after the Chernobyl radioactive fallout. The analysis identifies several substantive factors which influence the credibility of scientific communication. Starting from the now-accepted point that public uptake of science depends primarily upon the trust and credibility public groups are prepared to invest in scientific institutions and representatives, the paper observes that these are contingent upon the social relationships and identities which people feel to be affected by scientific knowledge, which never comes free of social interests or implications. The case study shows laypeople capable of extensive informal reflection upon their social relationships towards scientific experts, and on the epistemological status of their own 'local' knowledge in relation to 'outside' knowledge. Public uptake of science might be improved if scientific institutions expressed an equivalent reflexive discourse in the public domain. (author)

Dose assessment around TR-2 reactor due to maximum credible accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turgut, M. H.; Adalioglu, U.; Aytekin, A.

2001-01-01

The revision of safety analysis report of TR-2 research reactor had been initiated in 1995. The whole accident analysis and accepted scenario for maximum credible accident has been revised according to the new safety concepts and the impact to be given to the environment due to this scenario has been assessed. This paper comprises all results of these calculations. The accepted maximum credible accident scenario is the partial blockage of the whole reactor core which resulted in the release of 25% of the core inventory. The DOSER code which uses very conservative modelling of atmospheric distributions were modified for the assessment calculations. Pasquill conditions based on the local weather observations, topography, and building affects were considered. The thyroid and whole body doses for 16 sectors and up to 10 km of distance around CNAEM were obtained. Release models were puff and a prolonged one of two hours of duration. Release fractions for the active isotopes were chosen from literature which were realistic

Professional autonomy in 21st century healthcare: Nurses' accounts of clinical decision-making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Traynor, Michael; Boland, Maggie; Buus, Niels

2010-01-01

Autonomy in decision-making has traditionally been described as a feature of professional work, however the work of healthcare professionals has been seen as steadily encroached upon by State and managerialist forces. Nursing has faced particular problems in establishing itself as a credible....... The study uses accounts of decision-making to gain insight into contemporary professional nursing. The study also aims to explore the usefulness of a theory of professional work set out by Jamous and Peloille (1970). The analysis draws on notions of interpretive repertoires and elements of narrative...... analysis. We identified two interpretive repertoires: 'clinical judgement' which was used to describe the different grounds for making judgements; and 'decision-making' which was used to describe organisational circumstances influencing decision-making. Jamous and Peloille's theory proved useful...

Climate Feedback: Bringing the Scientific Community to Provide Direct Feedback on the Credibility of Climate Media Coverage

Science.gov (United States)

Vincent, E. M.; Matlock, T.; Westerling, A. L.

2015-12-01

While most scientists recognize climate change as a major societal and environmental issue, social and political will to tackle the problem is still lacking. One of the biggest obstacles is inaccurate reporting or even outright misinformation in climate change coverage that result in the confusion of the general public on the issue.In today's era of instant access to information, what we read online usually falls outside our field of expertise and it is a real challenge to evaluate what is credible. The emerging technology of web annotation could be a game changer as it allows knowledgeable individuals to attach notes to any piece of text of a webpage and to share them with readers who will be able to see the annotations in-context -like comments on a pdf.Here we present the Climate Feedback initiative that is bringing together a community of climate scientists who collectively evaluate the scientific accuracy of influential climate change media coverage. Scientists annotate articles sentence by sentence and assess whether they are consistent with scientific knowledge allowing readers to see where and why the coverage is -or is not- based on science. Scientists also summarize the essence of their critical commentary in the form of a simple article-level overall credibility rating that quickly informs readers about the credibility of the entire piece.Web-annotation allows readers to 'hear' directly from the experts and to sense the consensus in a personal way as one can literaly see how many scientists agree with a given statement. It also allows a broad population of scientists to interact with the media, notably early career scientists.In this talk, we will present results on the impacts annotations have on readers -regarding their evaluation of the trustworthiness of the information they read- and on journalists -regarding their reception of scientists comments.Several dozen scientists have contributed to this effort to date and the system offers potential to

Establishing the credibility of archaeoastronomical sites

Science.gov (United States)

Ruggles, Clive L. N.

2015-08-01

This is not a talk about archaeoastronomy per se, but rather about how the Astronomy and World Heritage Initiative helps us deal with archaeoastronomical sites as potential World Heritage.In 2011, an attempt to nominate a prehistoric “observatory” site onto the World Heritage List proved unsuccessful because UNESCO rejected the interpretation as statistically and archaeologically unproven. The case highlights an issue at the heart of archaeoastronomical methodology and interpretation: the mere existence of astronomical alignments in ancient sites does not prove that they were important to those who constructed and used the sites, let alone giving us insights into their likely significance and meaning. Advances in archaeoastronomy over several decades have resulted in the development of a substantial body of theory and practice (Ruggles 2014) where the most favoured interpretations depend upon integrating methods from astronomy, anthropology and other disciplines, but individual cases can still engender considerable controversy.The fact that more archaeoastronomical sites are now appearing on national tentative lists prior to their WHL nomination means that this is no longer just an academic issue; establishing the credibility of the archaeoastronomical interpretations is crucial to any assessment of their value in heritage terms.In this talk I shall describe progress that has been made within the Astronomy and World Heritage Initiative towards establishing broadly acceptable measures of archaeoastronomical credibility that make sense in the context of the heritage evaluation process. I will focus particularly, but not exclusively, on sites that are included in the Thematic Studies and/or are already included on national Tentative Lists, such as the Portuguese/Spanish seven-stone antas (Neolithic dolmens) and Chankillo in Peru (solar observation device dating to c. 300BC). I will also mention how the recognition of astronomical attributes of potential

Instructor Credibility across Disciplines: Identifying Students' Differentiated Expectations of Instructor Behaviors

Science.gov (United States)

Obermiller, Carl; Ruppert, Bryan; Atwood, April

2012-01-01

Business communication instructors can face a unique set of challenges to maintain their credibility with students. Communication plays an important role in the instructor-student relationship, and students judge instructors' ability to teach communication based on their ability to practice what they teach. The authors' empirical study shows that…

The Effects of Teacher Self-Disclosure via "Facebook" on Teacher Credibility

Science.gov (United States)

Mazer, Joseph P.; Murphy, Richard E.; Simonds, Cheri J.

2009-01-01

Research suggests that teachers who personalize their teaching through the use of humor, stories, enthusiasm, and self-disclosure are perceived by their students to be effective in explaining course content. This experimental study examined the effects of computer-mediated teacher self-disclosure on perceptions of teacher credibility. Participants…

Twitter Use and Its Effects on Student Perception of Instructor Credibility

Science.gov (United States)

DeGroot, Jocelyn M.; Young, Valerie J.; VanSlette, Sarah H.

2015-01-01

This study investigates college student perceptions of instructor credibility based on the content of an instructor's Twitterfeed and student beliefs about Twitter as a communication tool. Quantitative and qualitative methods were utilized to explore the effects of three manipulated Twitter feeds (e.g., tweeting social topics, professional topics,…

Towards Credible City Branding Practices: How Do Iran’s Largest Cities Face Ecological Modernization?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Negar Noori

2018-04-01

Full Text Available City branding is not only increasingly practiced in cities in established economies, but also among municipal governments in countries, until quite recently, rather closed off from the outside world. One country with a strong drive to engage in urban (redevelopment in the post-oil era through enhancing its ‘ecological modernization’ is Iran. Megacities in Iran have all begun to venture into making profiles of what they think they are or would like to be. However, some of the adopted city branding strategies lack sophistication. In this article, the authors examine what indicators can be used for evaluating the credibility of city brands and apply these to Iran’s 15 megacities. After offering brief descriptions of the generic features of each of these cities, they map their use of city brand identities and popular city labels related to ecological modernization and analyze the credibility of their city branding practices. Based on their findings, the authors distinguish five types of cities and explain what makes some types more credible in their use of brands than others. Generally speaking, compared to cities in other nations, Iranian cities pay special attention to historical, natural, cultural, and religious aspects.

Why Follow the Leader? Collective Action, Credible Commitment and Conflict

OpenAIRE

Keefer, Philip

2012-01-01

Most analyses of conflict assume that conflicting groups act in a unitary fashion. This assumption is often violated: to reduce their risk of replacement, group leaders prevent both group members and soldiers from acting collectively, making it difficult for leaders to make credible commitments to them. Lifting the assumption that groups are unitary shifts the analysis of a wide range of c...

Supply Chain Risk Management: An Introduction to the Credible Threat

Science.gov (United States)

2016-08-01

van.poindexter@dau.mil. Figure 3. Trusted Suppliers Source: “ Managing Information Communications Technology Global Supply Chain Risk Awareness...Defense AT&L: July-August 2016 18 Supply Chain Risk Management An Introduction to the Credible Threat Heath Ferry n Van Poindexter 19...cybersecurity breach. This article examines the elements of supply chain risk management , the national security risks associated with exploitation, and

Influence of User Ratings, Expert Ratings and Purposes of Information Use on the Credibility Judgments of College Students

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Sook; Steffel, Nick

2015-01-01

Introduction: This study examined whether user ratings, expert ratings and the purpose of the use of a book on a user-generated site influenced the credibility of the book. It also examined whether the effects of user ratings and expert ratings on credibility judgments of the book varied according to the purpose of information use. In addition,…

The Emotional Moves of a Rational Actor: Smiles, Scowls, and Other Credible Messages

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lawrence Ian Reed

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Many scholars turn to emotions to understand irrational behavior. We do the opposite: we turn to rationality and game theory to understand people’s emotions. We discuss a striking theory of emotions that began with the game theory of credible threats and promises, then was enriched by evolutionary biology and psychology, and now is being tested in psychological experiments. We review some of these experiments which use economic games to set up strategic situations with real payoffs. The experiments test whether a player’s emotional expressions lend credibility to promises, threats, and claims of danger or hardship. The results offer insights into the hidden strategies behind a warm smile, an angry scowl, a look of terror, and eyes of despair.

Workshop on establishing institutional credibility for SEAB Task Force on Radioactive Waste Management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

At the request of the Secretary of Energy Advisory Board's Task Force on Civilian Radioactive Waste Management, the National Research Council sponsored a workshop on Establishing Institutional Credibility. The purpose of the workshop was to (1) identify the range of available knowledge regarding the theoretical and conceptual issues of how institutions establish their credibility and legitimacy with key constituents, and (2) to help explore and clarify fundamental concepts in management theory related to these issues. The examination was to include what is known about how organizations establish, maintain, lose, and regain public trust and confidence. There was to be no attempt to develop consensus on these issues or to suggest particular courses of action. The workshop was held on October 24-25, 1991, in Denver, Colorado

From intermediation to disintermediation and apomediation: new models for consumers to access and assess the credibility of health information in the age of Web2.0.

Science.gov (United States)

Eysenbach, Gunther

2007-01-01

This theoretical paper discusses the model that, as a result of the social process of disintermediation enabled by digital media, traditional intermediaries are replaced by what this author calls apomediaries, which are tools and peers standing by to guide consumers to trustworthy information, or adding credibility to information. For apomediation to be an attractive and successful model for consumers, the recipient has to reach a certain degree of maturity and autonomy. Different degrees of autonomy may explain differences in information seeking and credibility appraisal behaviours. It is hypothesized that in an apomediated environment, tools, influential peers and opinion leaders are the primary conveyors of trust and credibility. In this environment, apomediary credibility may become equally or more important than source credibility or even message credibility. It is suggested to use tools of network analysis to study the dynamics of apomediary credibility in a networked digital world. There are practical implications of the apomediation model for developers of consumer health websites which aspire to come across as "credible: Consumers need and want to be able to be co-creators of content, not merely be an audience who is broadcasted to. Web2.0 technology enables such sites. Engaging and credible Web sites are about building community and communities are built upon personal and social needs.

Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

2017-02-01

Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

Investigating the impact of viral message appeal and message credibility on consumer attitude toward the brand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esmaeilpour Majid

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Due to the rapid growth of the Internet and use of e-commerce in the recent years, viral marketing has drawn the attention of manufacturing and service organizations. However, no research has been conducted to examine the impact of message appeal and message source credibility on consumers’ attitude with mediating role of intellectual involvement of consumers and their risk taking level. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of appeal and message source credibility on consumers’ attitude with mediating role of consumers’ intellectual involvement and their risk taking level. The population of this study includes consumers of mobile phones (Samsung, Sony, Nokia, LG and iPhone in the Bushehr city (Iran. As the population of the study is unlimited, 430 questionnaires were distributed using available sampling method, and 391 questionnaires were collected and analyzed. Using structural equation modeling, we analysed the data through smart PLS software. The results show that the appeal and credibility of the message source impact the consumer attitudes toward the brand. We also found that the intellectual involvement of consumers plays the mediating role in the relationship between message appeal and consumer attitudes toward brands. In the relationship between message source credibility and customer attitude towards the brand, the level of risk taking of people has no mediating role.

Accounting for susceptibility in risk assessment: The need for full disclosure.

Science.gov (United States)

Fowle Iii, J R

1997-12-01

Many Environmental Laws create the unrealistic expectation that science can be used to determine `safety'. The many uncertainties surrounding environmental risks, as well as individual, group and societal differences about what is considered `safe', make it inevitable that policy decisions must be made. It is appropriate that such decisions be shaped by politics and social issues, as well as be informed by science and economics, but care should be taken to distinguish between policy and fact. Not much is known about the nature and magnitude of environmental susceptibilities. Credible environmental decisions require that scientists, risk assessors and decision-makers acknowledge this, and that they take care to distinguish policy calls from scientific fact.

Are large-scale flow experiments informing the science and management of freshwater ecosystems?

Science.gov (United States)

Olden, Julian D.; Konrad, Christopher P.; Melis, Theodore S.; Kennard, Mark J.; Freeman, Mary C.; Mims, Meryl C.; Bray, Erin N.; Gido, Keith B.; Hemphill, Nina P.; Lytle, David A.; McMullen, Laura E.; Pyron, Mark; Robinson, Christopher T.; Schmidt, John C.; Williams, John G.

2013-01-01

Greater scientific knowledge, changing societal values, and legislative mandates have emphasized the importance of implementing large-scale flow experiments (FEs) downstream of dams. We provide the first global assessment of FEs to evaluate their success in advancing science and informing management decisions. Systematic review of 113 FEs across 20 countries revealed that clear articulation of experimental objectives, while not universally practiced, was crucial for achieving management outcomes and changing dam-operating policies. Furthermore, changes to dam operations were three times less likely when FEs were conducted primarily for scientific purposes. Despite the recognized importance of riverine flow regimes, four-fifths of FEs involved only discrete flow events. Over three-quarters of FEs documented both abiotic and biotic outcomes, but only one-third examined multiple taxonomic responses, thus limiting how FE results can inform holistic dam management. Future FEs will present new opportunities to advance scientifically credible water policies.

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

Science.gov (United States)

Walton, M.; Boley, L.; Keenan, L.; Kerstman, E.; Shah, R.; Young, M.; Saile, L.; Garcia, Y.; Meyers, J.; Reyes, D.

2015-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of

Global Zero and Deterrence Credibility : A Critical Analysis of Obama`s Nuclear Policy and Extended Nuclear Deterrence Credibility on the Korean Peninsula

OpenAIRE

Ganss, Mathias

2012-01-01

This thesis is a qualitative case study analysis of the whether the nuclear policies of President Obama has weakened the U.S. extended nuclear deterrence credibility on the Korean Peninsula. To answer this, the thesis employs two strategies: First, two variables are discussed; a nuclear capabilities-variable; and a nuclear policy-variable. The purpose is to assess the impact the New START treaty has on U.S. nuclear capabilities, and to assess the implications of Obama`s nuclear policy, expres...

The Age of Emotionality? – How emotions influence consumers’ perception of credibility and trust in CSR communication

OpenAIRE

Reupsch, Anika

2017-01-01

Companies around the world are using different strategies for their corporate social responsibility (CSR) communication, but finding an appropriate strategy to enhance trust and credibility on the consumer side remains challenging. The constitutive aspect of emotions in CSR communication has long been overlooked. Therefore, this study investigates the influence emotions in CSR communication have on the credibility and trust consumers have in a firm’s CSR. Quantitative research with group divi...

The Importance of 'Likes': The Interplay of Message Framing, Source, and Social Endorsement on Credibility Perceptions of Health Information on Facebook.

Science.gov (United States)

Borah, Porismita; Xiao, Xizhu

2018-01-01

Online sources not only permeate the information-seeking environment of the younger generation, but also have profound influence in shaping their beliefs and behaviors. In this landscape, examining the factors responsible for credibility perceptions of online information is fundamental, particularly for health-related information. Using a 2 (frames: gain vs. loss) × 2 (source: expert vs. non-expert) × 2 (social endorsement: high vs. low) randomized between-subjects experimental design, this study examines the effect of health message framing and the moderating effects of social endorsement and source type on credibility perceptions of Facebook posts. Testing across two issues--physical activity and alcohol consumption--findings indicate that the gain-framed message was perceived as most credible. Additionally, significant three-way interactions suggest that social endorsement and source type affect the relationship between message framing and credibility perceptions. Specifically, the findings demonstrate that a gain-framed message from an expert source with high number of 'likes' is considered the most credible message. These findings have significant implications for information gathering from social media sources, such as the influence of 'likes' on health information.

Science informed water resources decision-making: Examples using remote sensing observations in East Africa, the Lower Mekong Basin and the western United States

Science.gov (United States)

Granger, S. L.; Andreadis, K.; Das, N.; Farr, T. G.; Ines, A. V. M.; Jayasinghe, S.; Jones, C. E.; Melton, F. S.; Ndungu, L. W.; Lai-Norling, J.; Painter, T. H.

2017-12-01

Across the globe, planners and decision makers are often hampered by organizational and data silos and/or a lack of historic data or scant in situ observations on which to base policy and action plans. The end result is a complex interaction of responsibilities, legal frameworks, and stakeholder needs guided by uncertain information that is essentially bounded by how climate extremes are defined and characterized. Because of the importance of water, considerable resources in the developing and developed world are invested in data and tools for managing water. However, the existing paradigm of water management around the world faces significant challenges including inadequate funding to install, maintain or upgrade monitoring networks, lack of resources to integrate new science and data sources into existing tools, and demands for improved spatial coverage of observations. Add to this, a changing hydrology that is so complex it requires measurements and analyses that have never been done before. Interest in applying remote sensing science and observations into the decision making process is growing the world over, but in order to succeed, it is essential to form partnerships with stakeholder organizations and decision makers at the outset. In this talk, we describe examples of succesful decision-maker and science partnering based on projects that apply remote sensing science and observations in East Africa and the Lower Mekong Basin supported by the SERVIR Initiative, a joint United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) program, and projects in the western United States supported by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Western Water Applications Office (WWAO). All of these examples have benefitted from strong, committed partnerships with end user agencies. Best practices and lessons learned in connecting science to decision making amongst these examples are explored.

Plant identification credibility in ethnobotany: a closer look at Polish ethnographic studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Łuczaj Łukasz J

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper is an attempt to estimate the percentage of erroneously identified taxa in ethnographic studies concerning the use of plants and to propose a code for recording credibility of identification in historical ethnobotany publications. Methods A sample of Polish-language ethnobotanical literature (45 published sources from 1874-2005 and four collections of voucher specimens (from 1894-1975 were analyzed. Errors were detected in the publications by comparing the data with existing knowledge on the distribution of plant names and species ranges. The voucher specimens were re-examined. A one-letter code was invented for quick identification of the credibility of data published in lists of species compiled from historical or ethnographic sources, according to the source of identification: voucher specimen, Latin binominal, botanical expert, obvious widespread name, folk name, mode of use, range, physical description or photograph. To test the use of the code an up-to-date list of wild food plants used in Poland was made. Results A significant difference between the ratio of mistakes in the voucher specimen collections and the ratio of detectable mistakes in the studies without herbarium documentation was found. At least 2.3% of taxa in the publications were identified erroneously (mean rate was 6.2% per publication, and in half of these mistakes even the genus was not correct. As many as 10.0% of voucher specimens (on average 9.2% per collection were originally erroneously identified, but three quarters of the identification mistakes remained within-genus. The species of the genera Thymus, Rumex and Rubus were most often confused within the genus. Not all of the invented credibility codes were used in the list of wild food plants, but they may be useful for other researchers. The most often used codes were the ones signifying identification by: voucher specimen, botanical expert and by a common name used throughout the

Plant identification credibility in ethnobotany: a closer look at Polish ethnographic studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Łuczaj, Łukasz J

2010-12-17

This paper is an attempt to estimate the percentage of erroneously identified taxa in ethnographic studies concerning the use of plants and to propose a code for recording credibility of identification in historical ethnobotany publications. A sample of Polish-language ethnobotanical literature (45 published sources from 1874-2005) and four collections of voucher specimens (from 1894-1975) were analyzed. Errors were detected in the publications by comparing the data with existing knowledge on the distribution of plant names and species ranges. The voucher specimens were re-examined.A one-letter code was invented for quick identification of the credibility of data published in lists of species compiled from historical or ethnographic sources, according to the source of identification: voucher specimen, Latin binominal, botanical expert, obvious widespread name, folk name, mode of use, range, physical description or photograph. To test the use of the code an up-to-date list of wild food plants used in Poland was made. A significant difference between the ratio of mistakes in the voucher specimen collections and the ratio of detectable mistakes in the studies without herbarium documentation was found. At least 2.3% of taxa in the publications were identified erroneously (mean rate was 6.2% per publication), and in half of these mistakes even the genus was not correct. As many as 10.0% of voucher specimens (on average 9.2% per collection) were originally erroneously identified, but three quarters of the identification mistakes remained within-genus.The species of the genera Thymus, Rumex and Rubus were most often confused within the genus.Not all of the invented credibility codes were used in the list of wild food plants, but they may be useful for other researchers. The most often used codes were the ones signifying identification by: voucher specimen, botanical expert and by a common name used throughout the country. The results of this study support the rigorous use

Incorrect, fake, and false: Journalists' perceived online source credibility and verification behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vergeer, M.R.M.

2018-01-01

This study focuses on the extent journalists verify information provided by online sources, and tests to what extent this verification behavior can be explained by journalists' perceived credibility of online information and other factors, such as journalism education of journalists, work and

CREDIBILITY OF WEBSITES THROUGH FACETS AND DIMENSIONS

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Oana ȚUGULEA

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This study aims to investigate important aspects to concern on when building a commercial presentation website, in order to increase the credibility of the certain categories of a presentation website. Factor analysis was used in order to identify the dimensions of each category. The categories and resulted dimensions discussed were: “image” – with the following dimensions: Projected image, Specialist, Advert and Coherence, “relationship” – with the following dimensions: Bi-directional communication and Contact information, “product presentation” – with the following dimensions: In-depth description and Variety and “site functionality” – with the following dimensions: Usefulness, Official relationship, Complete communication, Exterior communication, Information format and References.

Using a group decision support system to make investment prioritisation decisions

OpenAIRE

Read, Martin; Gear, Tony; Minkes, Leonard; Irving, Ann

2013-01-01

This paper is concerned with how decision making groups involved in making investment prioritisation decisions involving funding of technology and science projects may be supported by a group decision support system (GDSS). While interested in decision outcomes, the primary focus of this paper is the role of a group support system as an aid to developing shared understanding within a group. The paper develops the conceptual framework of decision-making, communication and group support, and de...

Decision Exploration Lab : A Visual Analytics Solution for Decision Management

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Broeksema, Bertjan; Baudel, Thomas; Telea, Alex; Crisafulli, Paolo

2013-01-01

We present a visual analytics solution designed to address prevalent issues in the area of Operational Decision Management (ODM). In ODM, which has its roots in Artificial Intelligence (Expert Systems) and Management Science, it is increasingly important to align business decisions with business

Speaking Up For Science

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Spilhaus, Fred

2005-06-01

The Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History in Washington D.C. is planning to show a film, "A Privileged Planet" that promotes creationism in the form of "intelligent design." The film is based on the book by Guillermo Gonzalez and Jay Wesley Richards, both affiliated with the Discovery Institute, which advocates teaching "intelligent design" as science in U.S. public schools. By associating with the Discovery Institute, the Smithsonian Institution will associate science with creationism and damage their credibility. The film is slated for airing on 23 June, unless the Smithsonian comes to its senses.Why is this important? Because the film promotes a long term strategy of the Discovery Institute (//www.discovery.org/csc/) to replace "materialistic science" with "intelligent design." The film fosters the idea that science should include the supernatural. This is unacceptable. AGU's position is clear, creationism is not science and AGU opposes all efforts to promote creationism as science, (The full text of the AGU position statement can be found at: //www.agu.org/sci_soc/policy/positions/evolution.shtml).

Correction: An Indicator of Media Credibility

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Gordana Vilović

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The regularity of publishing corrections, clarifi cations, and letters to the editor, entail a high level of respect among the media for their audiences as they signify accountability and media credibility.This study began on the general assumption that the Croatian media is reluctant to publish corrections regularly, projecting an image that errors simply do not occur. Certainly errorless reporting is impossible due to fact that journalism is a profession prone to human error. Therefore, this study has enacted a content analysis methodology to follow the four primary Croatian daily newspapers, Jutarnji list, Večernji list, 24 sata and Vjesnik, for the period between May 6 and 30, 2010. The primary conclusion is that Croatian newspaper editors are hesitant to publish corrections if they are not under pressure from the Media Law.

Freedom and Responsibility in First Amendment Theory: Defamation Law and Media Credibility.

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Hunsaker, David M.

1979-01-01

Explores the concepts of freedom and responsibility in the context of First Amendment theory through an examination of the interrelationships between defamation law, access to media, and media credibility. Calls for a reassessment of the importance of defamation law in First Amendment theory. (JMF)

Probabilistic decision model of wind power investment and influence of green power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gillenwater, Michael

2013-01-01

This paper presents results from a model of a representative wind power investor's decision making process using a Monte Carlo simulation of a project financial analysis. Data, in the form of probability distribution functions (PDFs) for key input variables were collected from interviews with investors and other professionals active in the U.S. wind power industry using a formal expert elicitation protocol. This study presents the first quantitative estimates of the effect of the U.S. voluntary Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) market on renewable energy generation. The results indicate that the investment decisions of wind power project developers in the United States are unlikely to have been altered by the voluntary REC market. The problem with the current voluntary REC market is that it does not offer developers a reliable risk-adjusted revenue stream. Consequently, the claims by U.S. green power retailers and promoters that voluntary market RECs result in additional wind power projects lack credibility. Even dramatic increases in voluntary market REC prices, in the absence of long-term contracts, were found to have only a small effect on investor behavior. - Highlights: • I use a formal expert elicitation to collect data from wind power investors. • I use a Monte Carlo model to look at the influence of Renewable Energy Certificates on investment. • Investment decisions are unlikely to have been altered by the voluntary REC market. • Claims that the U.S. green power market result in additional wind power lack credibility

Penerapan Algoritma Decision Tree C4.5 Untuk Penilaian Rumah Tinggal

OpenAIRE

Setiadi, Budi

2015-01-01

There is still a possibility of assessment error homes as a reference value of credit, which will open opportunities for NPL. So we need a way of assessment (predictive value) is quite proportional, credible and accurate. Inaccurate predictions led to the planning of improper credit management. Prediction value of collateral house has attracted the interest of many researchers because of its importance both in theoretical andempirical.Namely C4.5 decision tree algorithm, CART and CHAID that c...

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Earth Science Applications Program: Exploring Partnerships to Enhance Decision Making in Public Health Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Vann, Timi S.; Venezia, Robert A.

2002-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth Science Enterprise is engaged in applications of NASA Earth science and remote sensing technologies for public health. Efforts are focused on establishing partnerships with those agencies and organizations that have responsibility for protecting the Nation's Health. The program's goal is the integration of NASA's advanced data and technology for enhanced decision support in the areas of disease surveillance and environmental health. A focused applications program, based on understanding partner issues and requirements, has the potential to significantly contribute to more informed decision making in public health practice. This paper intends to provide background information on NASA's investment in public health and is a call for partnership with the larger practice community.

The Effects of Source Credibility in the Presence or Absence of Prior Attitudes: Implications for the Design of Persuasive Communication Campaigns1

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Kumkale, G. Tarcan; AlbarracÍn, Dolores; Seignourel, Paul J.

2011-01-01

Most theories of persuasion predict that limited ability and motivation to think about communications should increase the impact of source credibility on persuasion. Furthermore, this effect is assumed to occur, regardless of whether or not the recipients have prior attitudes. In this study, the effects of source credibility, ability, and motivation (knowledge, message repetition, relevance) on persuasion were examined meta-analytically across both attitude formation and change conditions. Findings revealed that the Source Credibility × Ability/Motivation interaction emerged only when participants lacked prior attitudes and were unable to form a new attitude based on the message content. In such settings, the effects of source credibility decayed rapidly. The implications of these findings for applied communication campaigns are discussed. PMID:21625405

Title: A study of the relationship between managers\\' decision making styles and organizational health in Isfahan University of Medical Sciences

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S Bahrami

2012-12-01

Full Text Available   Background and Aims: Managers decision making style can function effectively correct departments in universities and its positive impact on organizational health group will increase efficiency. The present study aims to examine the relationship between the decision-making styles and organizational health departments in Isfahan University of Medical Sciences.   Methods: A descriptive and survey research method was utilized. The statistical population included all 594 members of Isfahan Medical Science University Colleges from which a sample of 201 was selected though a classified random sampling   The data gathering instruments included, a researcher – made decision making questionnaire and the Ho & Feldmn (1990, organizational health questionnaire. The reliability of the instruments was estimated 0.86 and 0.92 respectively, though Cronbach Alpha coefficient. Utilizing SPSS (15 statistical software, both descriptive and inferential statistics were applied to analyze the data.   Results: Consultative decision making scored the highest average among the chairpersons, while the authoritative style scored the lowest average. The departments' organizational health was more than mean level in all dimensions except chairperson's influence. Moreover, a significant relationship was observed between decision making style and organizational health indices. Also a direct relationship was not observed between authoritarian decision makings and institutional integration, chairperson influence, consideration, initiating structure, and academic emphasis. A direct relationship was observed between Consultative decision making and chairperson influence, consideration, initiating structure, resource support, morale, and academic emphasis. A direct relationship was observed between Participative decision making and chairperson Influence, consideration, initiating structure.   Conclusion: Consultative and participative decision making can lead to enhancement

Further Validation of the Conner's Adult Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Rating Scale Infrequency Index (CII) for Detection of Non-Credible Report of Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Symptoms.

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Cook, Carolyn M; Bolinger, Elizabeth; Suhr, Julie

2016-06-01

Attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) can be easily presented in a non-credible manner, through non-credible report of ADHD symptoms and/or by non-credible performance on neuropsychological tests. While most studies have focused on detection of non-credible performance using performance validity tests, there are few studies examining the ability to detect non-credible report of ADHD symptoms. We provide further validation data for a recently developed measure of non-credible ADHD symptom report, the Conner's Adult ADHD Rating Scales (CAARS) Infrequency Index (CII). Using archival data from 86 adults referred for concerns about ADHD, we examined the accuracy of the CII in detecting extreme scores on the CAARS and invalid reporting on validity indices of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 Restructured Format (MMPI-2-RF). We also examined the accuracy of the CII in detecting non-credible performance on standalone and embedded performance validity tests. The CII was 52% sensitive to extreme scores on CAARS DSM symptom subscales (with 97% specificity) and 20%-36% sensitive to invalid responding on MMPI-2-RF validity scales (with near 90% specificity), providing further evidence for the interpretation of the CII as an indicator of non-credible ADHD symptom report. However, the CII detected only 18% of individuals who failed a standalone performance validity test (Word Memory Test), with 87.8% specificity, and was not accurate in detecting non-credible performance using embedded digit span cutoffs. Future studies should continue to examine how best to assess for non-credible symptom report in ADHD referrals. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Investing without credible inter-period regulations. A bargaining approach with application to investments in natural resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nordal, Kjell Bjoern

2002-01-01

A government's lack of credibility when promising future taxation and regulation of foreign direct investment is often regarded as an obstacle to foreign investment. As shown in this paper, the total lack of inter-period credibility may not necessarily prevent investments from taking place. Both the government and the investor can benefit from negotiating a series of short-lived agreements in which the investor obtains a share of the revenue generated from previous investments against the undertaking of making new investments. This assumes that intra-period agreements are respected by the parties

Going the Extra Mile: Making Climate Data and Information Usable for Decision Making (Invited)

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Garfin, G. M.

2013-12-01

Actionable science, defined as 'data, analysis, and forecasts that are sufficiently predictive, accepted and understandable to support decision-making,' is the holy grail for climate scientists engaged in working with decision makers, to provide the scientific basis for adaptation planning and decisions. The literature on boundary organizations and science translation offers guidelines and best practices for the generation of climate information that is useful and usable for policy and operational decisions. Guidelines emphasize understanding decision contexts and constraints, trust building, development of a shared vision of usable science, co-production of knowledge, iterative and sustained engagement, and the development and leveraging of knowledge networks and communities of practice. Some studies offer the advice that climate change is fraught with irreducible or slowly reducible uncertainties; hence, the adoption of adaptive risk management approaches is more valuable in the near-term than scientific effort to reduce uncertainty or combine data in novel ways. Nevertheless, many water resource managers still seek science that reduces uncertainties, assurance that the range of projections will not change, evidence of cause and effect (e.g., atmospheric circulation patterns linked to regional precipitation anomalies) and information that is as close to deterministic as possible. So, how does the scientific community move forward on initiatives that integrate paleoclimate, observations, and model projections, to inform water resource management? There are no simple answers, because the uses of climate and hydrological data and information are context dependent. Scientists have products -- data and information -- and they need to research characteristics of the consumers of their product. What is the consumer's operating procedure, and world view? How does the consumer handle uncertainty? What is their tolerance for risk? What social and political factors

Counselor Bilingual Ability, Counselor Ethnicity, Acculturation, and Mexican Americans' Perceived Counselor Credibility

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Ramos-Sanchez, Lucila

2009-01-01

This study examined the effects of counselor bilingual ability and counselor ethnicity on client-perceived counselor credibility and cultural competence. Participants were assigned to 1 of 4 treatment conditions created by crossing counselor ethnicity with counselor language. No significant differences were found. Regarding rank ordering of the…

Practicing What We Teach: Credibility and Alignment in the Business Communication Classroom

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Ruppert, Bryan; Green, David A.

2012-01-01

The authors investigate the importance of instructor communication behaviors in a course on business communication, arguing that alignment between instructor behaviors and the precepts of the discipline has a pronounced effect on perceived instructor credibility in this field. Student evaluations were analyzed qualitatively for their comments on…

Science and Systems in Support of Multi-hazard Early Warnings and Decisions

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Pulwarty, R. S.

2015-12-01

The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC (SREX, AR5), the UNISDR Global Assessment Reports and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for information to support planning under changing rates and emergence of multiple hazards including climate extremes (drought, heat waves, floods). "Decision support" is now a popular term in the climate applications research community. While existing decision support activities can be identified in many disparate settings (e.g. federal, academic, private), the challenge of changing environments (coupled physical and social) is actually one of crafting implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting "user needs"). This includes overcoming weaknesses in co-production models, moving beyond DSSs as simply "software", coordinating innovation mapping and diffusion, and providing fora and gaming tools to identify common interests and differences in the way risks are perceived and managed among the affected groups. We outline the development and evolution of multi-hazard early warning systems in the United States and elsewhere, focusing on climate-related hazards. In particular, the presentation will focus on the climate science and information needed for (1) improved monitoring and modeling, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds, (4) the net benefits of using new information (5) characterizing and bridging the "last mile" in the context of longer-term risk management.

Inaugural AGU Science Policy Conference

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Uhlenbrock, Kristan

2012-01-01

AGU will present its inaugural Science Policy Conference, 30 April to 3 May 2012, at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center, located in downtown Washington, D. C. This conference will bring together leading scientists, policy makers, industry professionals, press, and other stakeholders to discuss natural hazards, natural resources, oceans, and Arctic science and the role these sciences play in serving communities. To bridge the science and policy fields, AGU plans to host this conference every 2 years and focus on the applications of Earth and space sciences to serve local and national communities. "Our nation faces a myriad of challenges such as the sustainability of our natural resources, current and future energy needs, and the ability to mitigate and adapt to natural and manmade hazards," said Michael McPhaden, president of AGU. "It is essential that policies to address these challenges be built on a solid foundation of credible scientific knowledge."

Successful Climate Science Communication Strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Sinclair, P.

2016-12-01

In the past decade, efforts to communicate the facts of global change have not successfully moved political leaders and the general public to action. In response, a number of collaborative efforts between scientists and professional communicators, writers, journalists, bloggers, filmmakers, artists and others have arisen seeking to bridge that gap. As a result, a new cadre of science-literate communicators, and media-savvy scientists have made themselves visible across diverse mainstream, traditional, and social media outlets. Because of these collaborations, in recent years, misinformation, and disinformation have been successfully met with accurate and credible rebuttals within a single news cycle.Examples of these efforts is the Dark Snow Project, a science/communication collaboration focusing initially on accelerated arctic melt and sea level rise, and the Climate Science Rapid Response team, which matches professional journalists with appropriate science experts in order to respond within a single news cycle to misinformation or misunderstandings about climate science.The session will discuss successful examples and suggest creative approaches for the future.

The Concept of Credibility (Validity in Television and Internet News Discourse: Critical Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boris Ružić

2010-12-01

Full Text Available This article reverses the traditional notion of media (television, radio or news papers as a unidirectional agent of communication from producer to receiver to a more appropriate paradigm inwhich information is not embedded with hierarchy. The new media perspective and the appropriation of technology (Internet have changed the nature of information dissemination. One cannot discuss authenticity or credibility in terms of ”telling the truth or lying”. On the contrary, users today can verify information by contrasting traditional media, or by autonomous investigation on the Internet. In this manner, the obtained information is rendered semantically ambiguous. With an approach akin to cultural studies, the authority of the speakers becomes important (unlike today in mainstream television media where a speaker is hidden behind his or her program. New media provides a unique perspective in which the user is always the arbiter of informational usefulness. The crisis that is manifested in traditional media by the lack of subjectivity of the reporter becomes diametrically opposite on the Internet. The all-knowing subject vanishes and gives place to an inter-subjective exchange which deletes hierarchy and the ontology of the ”truth”. A mirror perspective becomes the dominant order, by which one becomes inter-subjective par excellence. Within the present and future of new media, credibility will not be reserved for the ideological mass producers of information, but rather the credibility of the users. By becoming media, users begin to bear the burden of subjective analysis and multivocality.

Producing More Actionable Science Isn't the Problem; It's Providing Decision-Makers with Access to Right Actionable Knowledge

Science.gov (United States)

Trexler, M.

2017-12-01

Policy-makers today have almost infinite climate-relevant scientific and other information available to them. The problem for climate change decision-making isn't missing science or inadequate knowledge of climate risks; the problem is that the "right" climate change actionable knowledge isn't getting to the right decision-maker, or is getting there too early or too late to effectively influence her decision-making. Actionable knowledge is not one-size-fit-all, and for a given decision-maker might involve scientific, economic, or risk-based information. Simply producing more and more information as we are today is not the solution, and actually makes it harder for individual decision-makers to access "their" actionable knowledge. The Climatographers began building the Climate Web five years ago to test the hypothesis that a knowledge management system could help navigate the gap between infinite information and individual actionable knowledge. Today the Climate Web's more than 1,500 index terms allow instant access to almost any climate change topic. It is a curated public-access knowledgebase of more than 1,000 books, 2,000 videos, 15,000 reports and articles, 25,000 news stories, and 3,000 websites. But it is also much more, linking together tens of thousands of individually extracted ideas and graphics, and providing Deep Dives into more than 100 key topics from changing probability distributions of extreme events to climate communications best practices to cognitive dissonance in climate change decision-making. The public-access Climate Web is uniquely able to support cross-silo learning, collaboration, and actionable knowledge dissemination. The presentation will use the Climate Web to demonstrate why knowledge management should be seen as a critical component of science and policy-making collaborations.

Autonomy, evidence and intuition: nurses and decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Traynor, Michael; Boland, Maggie; Buus, Niels

2010-07-01

This paper is a report of a study conducted to examine how nurses represent professional clinical decision-making processes, and to determine what light Jamous and Peloille's 'Indeterminacy/Technicality ratio' concept can shed on these representations. Classic definitions of professional work feature autonomy of decision-making and control over the field of work. Sociologists Jamous and Peloille have described professional work as being high in 'indeterminacy' (the use of tacit judgements) relative to technicality (activity able to be codified). The rise of the evidence-based practice movement has been seen as increasing the realm of technical decision-making in healthcare, and it is relevant to analyse nurses' professional discourse and study how they respond to this increase. Three focus groups with qualified nurses attending post-qualifying courses at a London university were held in 2008. Participants were asked to talk about influences on their decision-making. The discussions were tape-recorded, transcribed and subjected to discourse analysis. Participants described their decision-making as influenced by both indeterminate and technical features. They acknowledged useful influences from both domains, but pointed to their personal 'experience' as the final arbiter of decision-making. Their accounts of decision-making created a sense of professional autonomy while at the same time protecting it against external critique. Pre- and post-registration nurse education could encourage robust discussion of the definition and roles of 'irrational' aspects of decision-making and how these might be understood as components of credible professional practice.

Training Conservation Practitioners to be Better Decision Makers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fred A. Johnson

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Traditional conservation curricula and training typically emphasizes only one part of systematic decision making (i.e., the science, at the expense of preparing conservation practitioners with critical skills in values-setting, working with decision makers and stakeholders, and effective problem framing. In this article we describe how the application of decision science is relevant to conservation problems and suggest how current and future conservation practitioners can be trained to be better decision makers. Though decision-analytic approaches vary considerably, they all involve: (1 properly formulating the decision problem; (2 specifying feasible alternative actions; and (3 selecting criteria for evaluating potential outcomes. Two approaches are available for providing training in decision science, with each serving different needs. Formal education is useful for providing simple, well-defined problems that allow demonstrations of the structure, axioms and general characteristics of a decision-analytic approach. In contrast, practical training can offer complex, realistic decision problems requiring more careful structuring and analysis than those used for formal training purposes. Ultimately, the kinds and degree of training necessary depend on the role conservation practitioners play in a decision-making process. Those attempting to facilitate decision-making processes will need advanced training in both technical aspects of decision science and in facilitation techniques, as well as opportunities to apprentice under decision analysts/consultants. Our primary goal should be an attempt to ingrain a discipline for applying clarity of thought to all decisions.

The dual impact of "appeal" and "researcher credibility" on mail survey response rate in the context of preventive health care.

Science.gov (United States)

Angur, M G; Nataraajan, R; Chawla, S K

1994-01-01

Health and fitness centers are becoming increasingly aware of their importance in the realm of preventive health care. Many hospitals have begun to open and run fitness centers, a trend that seems very likely to continue. In a competitive environment, every center would desire to obtain maximum valid customer information at minimum cost, and this paper addresses this issue. The authors investigate the confluence of both appeal and researcher credibility on mail questionnaire response rates from a metropolitan membership of a large fitness center. Personal appeal with high researcher credibility was found to generate significantly higher response rate followed by the hybrid appeal with low researcher credibility.

The effects of similarity, parasocial identification, and source credibility in obesity public service announcements on diet and exercise self-efficacy.

Science.gov (United States)

Phua, Joe

2016-05-01

This study examined the effect of the audience's similarity to, and parasocial identification with, spokespersons in obesity public service announcements, on perceived source credibility, and diet and exercise self-efficacy. The results (N = 200) indicated that perceived similarity to the spokesperson was significantly associated with three dimensions of source credibility (competence, trustworthiness, and goodwill), each of which in turn influenced parasocial identification with the spokesperson. Parasocial identification also exerted a positive impact on the audiences' diet and exercise self-efficacy. Additionally, significant differences were found between overweight viewers and non-overweight viewers on perceived similarity, parasocial identification with the spokesperson, and source credibility. © The Author(s) 2014.

Climate science information needs among natural resource decision-makers in the Northwest US

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Elizabeth Allen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Managing water resources, air quality, forests, rangelands and agricultural systems in the context of climate change requires a new level of integrated knowledge. In order to articulate a role for university-based research teams as providers of climate services, this paper analyzes environmental change concerns and expectations about climate models among natural resources decision-makers in the Northwest US. Data were collected during a series of workshops organized by researchers from BioEarth, a regional earth systems modeling initiative. Eighty-three stakeholders from industry, government agencies and non-governmental organizations engaged with a team of academic researchers developing integrated biophysical and economic climate modeling tools. Analysis of transcripts of workshop discussions, surveys, and questionnaires reveals diverse attitudes among stakeholders about: 1 preferred modes of engaging in climate science research, 2 specific concerns and questions about climate change impacts, and 3 the most relevant and usable scope and scale of climate change impacts projections. Diverse concerns and information needs among natural resource decision-makers highlight the need for research teams to define clear and precise goals for stakeholder engagement. Utilizing the skills of research team members who have communication and extension expertise is pivotally important. We suggest impactful opportunities for research teams and natural resource decision-makers to interface and learn from one another. Effective approaches include structuring group discussions to identify gaps in existing climate change impacts information, explicitly considering changing policies, technologies and management practices, and exploring possible unintended consequences of decisions.

Open Science: a first step towards Science Communication

Science.gov (United States)

Grigorov, Ivo; Tuddenham, Peter

2015-04-01

As Earth Science communicators gear up to adopt the new tools and captivating approaches to engage citizen scientists, budding entrepreneurs, policy makers and the public in general, researchers have the responsibility, and opportunity, to fully adopt Open Science principles and capitalize on its full societal impact and engagement. Open Science is about removing all barriers to basic research, whatever its formats, so that it can be freely used, re-used and re-hashed, thus fueling discourse and accelerating generation of innovative ideas. The concept is central to EU's Responsible Research and Innovation philosophy, and removing barriers to basic research measurably contributes to engaging citizen scientists into the research process, it sets the scene for co-creation of solutions to societal challenges, and raises the general science literacy level of the public. Despite this potential, only 50% of today's basic research is freely available. Open Science can be the first passive step of communicating marine research outside academia. Full and unrestricted access to our knowledge including data, software code and scientific publications is not just an ethical obligation, but also gives solid credibility to a more sophisticated communication strategy on engaging society. The presentation will demonstrate how Open Science perfectly compliments a coherent communication strategy for placing Marine Research in societal context, and how it underpin an effective integration of Ocean & Earth Literacy principles in standard educational, as well mobilizing citizen marine scientists, thus making marine science Open Science.

Adolescent Health Literacy: The Importance of Credible Sources for Online Health Information

Science.gov (United States)

Ghaddar, Suad F.; Valerio, Melissa A.; Garcia, Carolyn M.; Hansen, Lucy

2012-01-01

Background: Little research has examined adolescent health literacy and its relationship with online health information sources. The purpose of this study is to explore health literacy among a predominantly Hispanic adolescent population and to investigate whether exposure to a credible source of online health information, MedlinePlus[R], is…

A scientist's guide to engaging decision makers

Science.gov (United States)

Vano, J. A.

2015-12-01

Being trained as a scientist provides many valuable tools needed to address society's most pressing environmental issues. It does not, however, provide training on one of the most critical for translating science into action: the ability to engage decision makers. Engagement means different things to different people and what is appropriate for one project might not be for another. However, recent reports have emphasized that for research to be most useful to decision making, engagement should happen at the beginning and throughout the research process. There are an increasing number of boundary organizations (e.g., NOAA's Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment program, U.S. Department of the Interior's Climate Science Centers) where engagement is encouraged and rewarded, and scientists are learning, often through trial and error, how to effectively include decision makers (a.k.a. stakeholders, practitioners, resource managers) in their research process. This presentation highlights best practices and practices to avoid when scientists engage decision makers, a list compiled through the personal experiences of both scientists and decision makers and a literature review, and how this collective knowledge could be shared, such as through a recent session and role-playing exercise given at the Northwest Climate Science Center's Climate Boot Camp. These ideas are presented in an effort to facilitate conversations about how the science community (e.g., AGU researchers) can become better prepared for effective collaborations with decision makers that will ultimately result in more actionable science.

Strategic decision analysis applied to borehole seismology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menke, M.M.; Paulsson, B.N.P.

1994-01-01

Strategic Decision Analysis (SDA) is the evolving body of knowledge on how to achieve high quality in the decision that shapes an organization's future. SDA comprises philosophy, process concepts, methodology, and tools for making good decisions. It specifically incorporates many concepts and tools from economic evaluation and risk analysis. Chevron Petroleum Technology Company (CPTC) has applied SDA to evaluate and prioritize a number of its most important and most uncertain R and D projects, including borehole seismology. Before SDA, there were significant issues and concerns about the value to CPTC of continuing to work on borehole seismology. The SDA process created a cross-functional team of experts to structure and evaluate this project. A credible economic model was developed, discrete risks and continuous uncertainties were assessed, and an extensive sensitivity analysis was performed. The results, even applied to a very restricted drilling program for a few years, were good enough to demonstrate the value of continuing the project. This paper explains the SDA philosophy concepts, and process and demonstrates the methodology and tools using the borehole seismology project example. SDA is useful in the upstream industry not just in the R and D/technology decisions, but also in major exploration and production decisions. Since a major challenge for upstream companies today is to create and realize value, the SDA approach should have a very broad applicability

Verification, Validation and Credibility Assessment of a Computational Model of the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED)

Science.gov (United States)

Werner, C. R.; Humphreys, B. T.; Mulugeta, L.

2014-01-01

The Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) is the resistive exercise device used by astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) to mitigate bone loss and muscle atrophy due to extended exposure to microgravity (micro g). The Digital Astronaut Project (DAP) has developed a multi-body dynamics model of biomechanics models for use in spaceflight exercise physiology research and operations. In an effort to advance model maturity and credibility of the ARED model, the DAP performed verification, validation and credibility (VV and C) assessment of the analyses of the model in accordance to NASA-STD-7009 'Standards for Models and Simulations'.

The public information challenge: confidence and credibility through communications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spence, H.J.M.

1994-01-01

Canada's Atomic Energy Control Board, considered the oldest independent nuclear regulatory body in the world, has made significant progress toward openness and visibility through public information policy initiatives and communications activities, particularly in the last five years. A number of public information projects are described, and successes as well as disappointments are outlined. The importance in terms of enhanced credibility and public confidence in the regulatory agency is stressed. In looking toward the future, the linking of communications to the operational functions and activities of the regulator is presented as a key requirement. (author)

Attitude Similarity and Therapist Credibility as Predictors of Attitude Change and Improvement in Psychotherapy

Science.gov (United States)

Beutler, Larry E.; And Others

1975-01-01

This study attempts to (1) assess the effects of therapist credibility and patient-therapist similarity on interpersonal persuasion; and (2) to further assess the relationship between patient attitude change and psychotherapy outcome. (HMV)

Format as a False Judge of Credibility: Messages from Librarians and Faculty and Student Responses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amy E. Mark

2011-11-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this case study is to explore how students make sense of and respond to messages about information in higher education. This study identifies the messages students in higher education receive about information gathering, conducting research, and the credibility and authority of information sources. This research revealed that students are receiving the message from faculty that format is a stand-in for credibility. Research to date focuses on how to steer students to information privileged by the academy: academic, peer reviewed articles, and books. The voice of students is often absent. This study employs the critical framework of Paulo Freire in order to give voice to student perceptions of information.

Utility of the clue - From assessing the investigative contribution of forensic science to supporting the decision to use traces.

Science.gov (United States)

Bitzer, Sonja; Albertini, Nicola; Lock, Eric; Ribaux, Olivier; Delémont, Olivier

2015-12-01

In an attempt to grasp the effectiveness of forensic science in the criminal justice process, a number of studies introduced some form of performance indicator. However, most of these indicators suffer from different weaknesses, from the definition of forensic science itself to problems of reliability and validity. We suggest the introduction of the concept of utility of the clue as an internal evaluation indicator of forensic science in the investigation. Utility of the clue is defined as added value of information, gained by the use of traces. This concept could be used to assess the contribution of the trace in the context of the case. By extension, a second application of this concept is suggested. By formalising and considering, a priori, the perceived utility of using traces, we introduce the notion of expected utility that could be used as decision factor when choosing which traces to use, once they have been collected at the crime scene or from an object in the laboratory. In a case-based approach, utility can be assessed in the light of the available information to evaluate the investigative contribution of forensic science. In the decision-making process, the projection or estimation of the utility of the clue is proposed to be a factor to take into account when triaging the set of traces. Copyright © 2015 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Critical Thresholds to Customize Climate Projections of Extreme Events to User Needs and Support Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Garfin, G. M.; Petersen, A.; Shafer, M.; MacClune, K.; Hayhoe, K.; Riley, R.; Nasser, E.; Kos, L.; Allan, C.; Stults, M.; LeRoy, S. R.

2016-12-01

Many communities in the United States are already vulnerable to extreme events; many of these vulnerabilities are likely to increase with climate change. In order to promote the development of effective community responses to climate change, we tested a participatory process for developing usable climate science, in which our project team worked with decision-makers to identify extreme event parameters and critical thresholds associated with policy development and adaptation actions. Our hypothesis is that conveying climate science and data through user-defined parameters and thresholds will help develop capacity to streamline the use of climate projections in developing strategies and actions, and motivate participation by a variety of preparedness planners. Our team collaborated with urban decision-makers, in departments that included resilience, planning, public works, public health, emergency management, and others, in four cities in the semi-arid south-central plains and intermountain areas of Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. Through an iterative process, we homed in on both simple and hybrid indicators for which we could develop credible city-specific projections, to stimulate discussion about adaptation actions; throughout the process, we communicated information about confidence and uncertainty, in order to develop a blend of historic and projected climate data, as appropriate, depending on levels of uncertainty. Our collaborations have resulted in (a) the identification of more than 50 unique indicators and thresholds across the four communities, (b) the development of adaptation action strategies in each community, and (c) the implementation of actions, ranging from a climate leadership training program for city staff members, to a rainwater capture project to improve responses to expected increases in both stormwater runoff and water capture for drought episodes.

A conceptual model of the automated credibility assessment of the volunteered geographic information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Idris, N H; Jackson, M J; Ishak, M H I

2014-01-01

The use of Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) in collecting, sharing and disseminating geospatially referenced information on the Web is increasingly common. The potentials of this localized and collective information have been seen to complement the maintenance process of authoritative mapping data sources and in realizing the development of Digital Earth. The main barrier to the use of this data in supporting this bottom up approach is the credibility (trust), completeness, accuracy, and quality of both the data input and outputs generated. The only feasible approach to assess these data is by relying on an automated process. This paper describes a conceptual model of indicators (parameters) and practical approaches to automated assess the credibility of information contributed through the VGI including map mashups, Geo Web and crowd – sourced based applications. There are two main components proposed to be assessed in the conceptual model – metadata and data. The metadata component comprises the indicator of the hosting (websites) and the sources of data / information. The data component comprises the indicators to assess absolute and relative data positioning, attribute, thematic, temporal and geometric correctness and consistency. This paper suggests approaches to assess the components. To assess the metadata component, automated text categorization using supervised machine learning is proposed. To assess the correctness and consistency in the data component, we suggest a matching validation approach using the current emerging technologies from Linked Data infrastructures and using third party reviews validation. This study contributes to the research domain that focuses on the credibility, trust and quality issues of data contributed by web citizen providers

How a science methods course may influence the curriculum decisions of preservice teachers in the Bahamas

Science.gov (United States)

Wisdom, Sonya L.

The purpose of this study was to examine how a science methods course in primary education might influence the curriculum decisions of preservice teachers in The Bahamas related to unit plan development on environmental science topics. Grounded in a social constructivist theoretical framework for teaching and learning science, this study explored the development of the confidence and competence of six preservice teachers to teach environmental science topics at the primary school level. A qualitative case study using action research methodologies was conducted. The perspectives of preservice teachers about the relevancy of methods used in a science methods course were examined as I became more reflective about my practice. Using constant comparative analysis, data from student-written documents and interviews as well as my field notes from class observations and reflective journaling were analyzed for emerging patterns and themes. Findings of the study indicated that while preservice teachers showed a slight increase in interest regarding learning and teaching environmental science, their primary focus during the course was learning effective teaching strategies in science on topics with which they already had familiarity. Simultaneously, I gained a deeper understanding of the usefulness of reflection in my practice. As a contribution to the complexity of learning to teach science at the primary school level, this study suggests some issues for consideration as preservice teachers are supported to utilize more of the national primary science curriculum in The Bahamas.

Scientific Literacy for Democratic Decision-Making

Science.gov (United States)

Yacoubian, Hagop A.

2018-01-01

Scientifically literate citizens must be able to engage in making decisions on science-based social issues. In this paper, I start by showing examples of science curricula and policy documents that capitalise the importance of engaging future citizens in decision-making processes whether at the personal or at the societal levels. I elucidate the…

Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms

Science.gov (United States)

Love, Jeffrey J.

2012-01-01

Statistical analysis is made of rare, extreme geophysical events recorded in historical data -- counting the number of events $k$ with sizes that exceed chosen thresholds during specific durations of time $\\tau$. Under transformations that stabilize data and model-parameter variances, the most likely Poisson-event occurrence rate, $k/\\tau$, applies for frequentist inference and, also, for Bayesian inference with a Jeffreys prior that ensures posterior invariance under changes of variables. Frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian (Jeffreys) credibility intervals are approximately the same and easy to calculate: $(1/\\tau)[(\\sqrt{k} - z/2)^{2},(\\sqrt{k} + z/2)^{2}]$, where $z$ is a parameter that specifies the width, $z=1$ ($z=2$) corresponding to $1\\sigma$, $68.3\\%$ ($2\\sigma$, $95.4\\%$). If only a few events have been observed, as is usually the case for extreme events, then these "error-bar" intervals might be considered to be relatively wide. From historical records, we estimate most likely long-term occurrence rates, 10-yr occurrence probabilities, and intervals of frequentist confidence and Bayesian credibility for large earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, and magnetic storms.

Science Operations Management

Science.gov (United States)

Squibb, Gael F.

1984-10-01

The operation teams for the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) included scientists from the IRAS International Science Team. The scientific decisions on an hour-to-hour basis, as well as the long-term strategic decisions, were made by science team members. The IRAS scientists were involved in the analysis of the instrument performance, the analysis of the quality of the data, the decision to reacquire data that was contaminated by radiation effects, the strategy for acquiring the survey data, and the process for using the telescope for additional observations, as well as the processing decisions required to ensure the publication of the final scientific products by end of flight operations plus one year. Early in the project, two science team members were selected to be responsible for the scientific operational decisions. One, located at the operations control center in England, was responsible for the scientific aspects of the satellite operations; the other, located at the scientific processing center in Pasadena, was responsible for the scientific aspects of the processing. These science team members were then responsible for approving the design and test of the tools to support their responsibilities and then, after launch, for using these tools in making their decisions. The ability of the project to generate the final science data products one year after the end of flight operations is due in a large measure to the active participation of the science team members in the operations. This paper presents a summary of the operational experiences gained from this scientific involvement.

Setting science free from materialism.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheldrake, Rupert

2013-01-01

Contemporary science is based on the claim that all reality is material or physical. There is no reality but material reality. Consciousness is a by-product of the physical activity of the brain. Matter is unconscious. Evolution is purposeless. This view is now undergoing a credibility crunch. The biggest problem of all for materialism is the existence of consciousness. Panpsychism provides a way forward. So does the recognition that minds are not confined to brains. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Handbook of group decision and negotiation

CERN Document Server

Eden, Colin

2010-01-01

The growing field of Group Decision and Negotiation is best described as the empirical, formal, computational, and strategic analysis of group decision-making and negotiation, especially from the viewpoints of Management Science and Operations Research. The topic crosses many traditional disciplinary boundaries. It has connections to business administration and business strategy, management science, systems engineering, computer science, mathematics, and law, as well as economics, psychology, and other social sciences. This defining handbook provides an up-to-date reference on new approaches to the principles and practice of negotiation, group decision-making, and collaboration, including the origins, development, and prospects of electronic negotiation, as well as the associated development of on-line or computer-based arbitration systems. It also provides a current and comprehensive reference on how traditional issues in negotiation, such as knowledge, language, strategy, fairness and justice, have been tra...

When The Judiciary Flouts Separation of Powers: Attenuating the Credibility of the National Prosecuting Authority

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lindiwe Maqutu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The stature of the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA has been subverted through highly publicised political interference by the executive. Beginning with the marathon legal entanglements of the current South African president the decisions of sitting National Directors of Public Prosecutions (NDPP on high-profile criminal matters, particularly those involving prominent members of the political leadership, have been marred with controversy. Undoubtedly unwarranted intrusion into the prosecutorial domain, at the behest of key political protagonists, has blighted the repute of the NPA. The judiciary too has played a pivotal, if lesser role, in eroding the sagging reputation of the NPA. This article charts the narrative of judicial influence on the diminishing credibility of the NPA, using selected cases from the recent past. It shows that key political events such as the Zuma corruption saga have placed the judiciary together with political forces at centre stage where the focus is their culpability for exceeding their lawful mandate. Finding itself vulnerable as a result of its being the target of rhetoric casting doubt on its integrity and threatening its independence, the judiciary (through a crucial judgment entered the political fray and positioned itself behind what it judged to be the pervasive political sentiment of the day. The article examines whether, subsequently, in an effort to curb undue political influence of the executive on the NPA, the Constitutional Court in Democratic Alliance v President of South Africa interpreted and extended judicial authority in a manner that violated the doctrine of separation of powers. Furthermore, the article argues that in Freedom Under Law v National Director of Public Prosecutions the court again misconstrued its powers by unduly interfering with the discretionary decision-making powers of the NDPP. These cases illustrate that, once they have been issued, the far reaching consequences of judicial

Decision-making and environmental impacts

OpenAIRE

Elmquist, Helena; Lindgren, Urban; Mäkilä, Kalle

2004-01-01

This report describes an interdisciplinary study combining social sciences and natural sciences in an integrated simulation model. The integrated dynamic simulation model consists of the interplay between the decision-making farmer, the physical flows at the farm and the structural conditions that influence the business. The central question studied here concerned the energy use, environmental impacts and business economics of various decision models in comparison to different levels of envir...

The Relation of Source Credibility and Message Frequency to Program Evaluation and Self-Confidence of Students in a Job Shadowing Program

Science.gov (United States)

Linnehan, Frank

2004-01-01

Using a pre- and post-test design, this study examined the relation of an adult's credibility and message frequency to the beliefs of female high school students participating in a job-shadowing program. Hypotheses were based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model of attitude formation and change. Findings indicate that credibility of the adult…

The power of science economic research and European decision-making : the case of energy and environment policies

CERN Document Server

Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico

2010-01-01

This book highlights the interaction between science and politics and between research in economics and European Union policy-making. It focuses on the use of Quantitative tools, Top-down and Bottom-up models in up-stream European decision-making process through five EU policy case studies: energy taxation, climate change, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and internalisation of external costs.

Maximum credible accident analysis for TR-2 reactor conceptual design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manopulo, E.

1981-01-01

A new reactor, TR-2, of 5 MW, designed in cooperation with CEN/GRENOBLE is under construction in the open pool of TR-1 reactor of 1 MW set up by AMF atomics at the Cekmece Nuclear Research and Training Center. In this report the fission product inventory and doses released after the maximum credible accident have been studied. The diffusion of the gaseous fission products to the environment and the potential radiation risks to the population have been evaluated

User Guidelines and Best Practices for CASL VUQ Analysis Using Dakota.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adams, Brian M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Coleman, Kayla [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Hooper, Russell [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Khuwaileh, Bassam A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Lewis, Allison [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Smith, Ralph C. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Swiler, Laura Painton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Turinsky, Paul J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Williams, Brian W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-11-01

Sandia's Dakota software (available at http://dakota.sandia.gov) supports science and engineering transformation through advanced exploration of simulations. Specifically it manages and analyzes ensembles of simulations to provide broader and deeper perspective for analysts and decision makers. This enables them to enhance understanding of risk, improve products, and assess simulation credibility.

The Roles of Science in Local Resilience Policy Development: A Case Study of Three U.S. Cities

Science.gov (United States)

Clavin, C.; Gupta, N.

2015-12-01

The development and deployment of resilience policies within communities in the United States often respond to the place-based, hazard-specific nature of disasters. Prior to the onset of a disaster, municipal and regional decision makers establish long-term development policies, such as land use planning, infrastructure investment, and economic development policies. Despite the importance of incorporating disaster risk within community decision making, resilience and disaster risk are only one consideration community decision makers weigh when choosing how and whether to establish resilience policy. Using a case study approach, we examine the governance, organizational, management, and policy making processes and the involvement of scientific advice in designing and implementing resilience policy in three U.S. communities: Los Angeles, CA; Norfolk, VA; and Flagstaff, AZ. Disaster mitigation or resilience initiatives were developed and deployed in each community with differing levels and types of scientific engagement. Engagement spanned from providing technical support with traditional risk assessment to direct engagement with community decision makers and design of community resilience outreach. Best practices observed include embedding trusted, independent scientific advisors with strong community credibility within local government agencies, use of interdisciplinary and interdepartmental expert teams with management and technical skillsets, and establishing scientifically-informed disaster and hazard scenarios to enable community outreach. Case study evidence suggest science communication and engagement within and across municipal government agencies and scientifically-informed direct engagement with community stakeholders are effective approaches and roles that disaster risk scientists can fill to support resilience policy development.

Shifting Roles, Enduring Values: The Credible Journalist in a Digital Age

OpenAIRE

Hayes, A.; Singer, J.; Ceppos, J.

2007-01-01

When everyone can be a publisher, what distinguishes the journalist? This article considers contemporary challenges to institutional roles in a digital media environment, then focuses on three broad journalistic normative values -- authenticity, accountability and autonomy -- that affect the credibility of both the journalist and the content he or she provides. A set of questions that can help citizens determine the trustworthiness of the information available to them also is provided.

Involvement of Family Members and Professionals in Older Women's Post-Fall Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Bergeron, Caroline D; Hilfinger Messias, DeAnne K; Friedman, Daniela B; Spencer, S Melinda; Miller, Susan C

2018-03-01

This exploratory, descriptive study examined involvement of family members and professionals in older women's post-fall decision making. We conducted semistructured interviews with 17 older women who had recently fallen and 11 individuals these women identified as being engaged in their post-fall decision-making processes. Qualitative data analysis involved open and axial coding and development of themes. After experiencing a fall, these older women's openness to others' opinions and advice; their assessments of types and credibility of potential information sources; and the communication practices they established with these sources influenced how they accessed, accepted, or rejected information from family members and professionals. Increased awareness of the involvement of others in post-fall decision making could enhance communication with older women who fall. Developing and implementing practical strategies to help family members and professionals initiate and engage in conversations about falls and their consequences could lead to more open decision making and improved post-fall quality of life among older women.

Nuclear snow job: utilities struggle to avoid credibility meltdown

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feeney, A.

1979-01-01

Electric utilities and the US nuclear industry are criticized for giving a public relations response to safety concerns following the accident at Three Mile Island and for passing the cost of the response on to utility customers. The large amounts of money budgeted by Babcock and Wilcox, Bechtel Power Corporation, the Atomic Industrial Forum, Electric Power Research Institute, Nuclear Energy Women, and others to minimize the incident and counter anti-nuclear arguments with media events are seen here by Feeney as evidence that the utilities and nuclear industry are afraid of political consequences as their technical credibility vanishes

Corrigendum: Information Search in Decisions From Experience: Do Our Patterns of Sampling Foreshadow Our Decisions?

Science.gov (United States)

2017-09-01

Original article: Hills, T. T., & Hertwig, R. (2010). Information search in decisions from experience: Do our patterns of sampling foreshadow our decisions? Psychological Science, 21, 1787-1792. doi:10.1177/0956797610387443.

On Manipulating Nonverbal Interaction Style to Increase Anthropomorphic Computer Character Credibility

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cowell, Andrew J.; Stanney, Kay M.

2003-09-01

This study examined the effectiveness of enhancing humanagentinteraction through the use of nonverbal behaviors. Ataxonomy is described, which organizes nonverbal behaviorsinto functional categories and the manner in which they can beembodied (i.e. through gesture, posture, paralanguage, eyecontact and facial expression). Prototype computer characterswere created according to guidelines extracted from thetaxonomy and their efficacy was empirical evaluated. Theresults indicate that by including trusting nonverbal behaviors,the perceived credibility of a computer character was enhanced,although addition of trusting bodily nonverbal behaviorprovided little in addition to trusting facial nonverbal behavior.Perhaps more importantly, a character expressing non-trustingnonverbal behaviors was perceived to be the least credible of allcharacters examined (including a character that expressed nononverbal behavior). Participants that interacted with thispersona perceived the task to be more demanding, madesignificantly more errors, and rated their interaction lesspositively and more monotonous than those using trustingpersonas. They also rated this character to be less likable,accurate, and intelligent. Taken together, the results from thisstudy suggest that there may indeed be benefit to endowingcomputer characters with nonverbal trusting behaviors, as longas those behaviors are accurately and appropriately portrayed.Such behaviors may lead to a more trusting environment andpositive experience for users. Negative character behavior,however, such as non-trusting behavior, may squander theadvantages that embodiment brings.

Response expectancies, treatment credibility, and hypnotic suggestibility: mediator and moderator effects in hypnotic and cognitive-behavioral pain interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Milling, Leonard S; Shores, Jessica S; Coursen, Elizabeth L; Menario, Deanna J; Farris, Catherine D

2007-04-01

Several studies have shown that response expectancies are an important mechanism of popular psychological interventions for pain. However, there has been no research on whether response expectancies and treatment credibility independently mediate hypnotic and cognitive-behavioral pain interventions and whether the pattern of mediation is affected by experience with the interventions. Also, past research has indicated that hypnotic pain interventions may be moderated by hypnotic suggestibility. However, these studies have typically failed to measure the full range of suggestibility and have assessed pain reduction and suggestibility in the same experimental context, possibly inflating the association between these variables. To clarify the mediator role of response expectancies and treatment credibility, and the moderator role of hypnotic suggestibility in the hypnotic and cognitive-behavioral reduction of pain. Approximately 300 participants were assessed for suggestibility. Then, as part of an apparently unrelated experiment, 124 of these individuals received analogue cognitive-behavioral, hypnotic, or placebo control pain interventions. Response expectancies and credibility independently mediated treatment. The extent of mediation increased as participants gained more experience with the interventions. Suggestibility moderated treatment and was associated with relief only from the hypnotic intervention. Response expectancies and treatment credibility are unique mechanisms of hypnotic and cognitive-behavioral pain interventions. Hypnotic suggestibility predicts relief from hypnotic pain interventions and this association is not simply an artifact of measuring suggestibility and pain reduction in the same experimental context. The relationship between suggestibility and hypnotic pain reduction appears to be linear in nature.

Cognitive Phenotypes and the Evolution of Animal Decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Mendelson, Tamra C; Fitzpatrick, Courtney L; Hauber, Mark E; Pence, Charles H; Rodríguez, Rafael L; Safran, Rebecca J; Stern, Caitlin A; Stevens, Jeffrey R

2016-11-01

Despite the clear fitness consequences of animal decisions, the science of animal decision making in evolutionary biology is underdeveloped compared with decision science in human psychology. Specifically, the field lacks a conceptual framework that defines and describes the relevant components of a decision, leading to imprecise language and concepts. The 'judgment and decision-making' (JDM) framework in human psychology is a powerful tool for framing and understanding human decisions, and we apply it here to components of animal decisions, which we refer to as 'cognitive phenotypes'. We distinguish multiple cognitive phenotypes in the context of a JDM framework and highlight empirical approaches to characterize them as evolvable traits. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

actuar: An R Package for Actuarial Science

OpenAIRE

Dutang, Christophe; Goulet, Vincent; Pigeon, Mathieu

2008-01-01

actuar is a package providing additional Actuarial Science functionality to the R statistical system. The project was launched in 2005 and the package is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network since February 2006. The current version of the package contains functions for use in the fields of loss distributions modeling, risk theory (including ruin theory), simulation of compound hierarchical models and credibility theory. This paper presents in detail but with few technical terms t...

Enacting Effective Climate Policy Advice: Institutional Strategies to Foster Saliency, Credibility and Legitimacy

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Anja; Pregernig, Michael; Reinecke, Sabine

2016-01-01

This article asks how scientific advisory institutions (SAIs) in climate policy strive towards effectiveness. Our analysis is grounded on the assumption that effectiveness is not passively experienced but is deliberately enacted by SAIs. We draw on a widely used set of criteria, namely saliency, credibility and legitimacy (SCL). Based on an…

Credibility elements of eWOM messages in the context of health care services. A Romanian perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Purcarea, V L; Gheorghe, I R; Petrescu, C M

2013-09-15

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the Romanian consumers' determinants of eWOM messages' perceived credibility in the context of health care services. We selected a sample of 127 women and we administered a questionnaire. We used the partial least squares to uncover the established relationships between the variables of the model, namely the argument strength and the source credibility of a eWOM message and the intention to purchase a health care service based on the information embedded in the eWOM messages. The results revealed that all variables had positive direct correlations with each other but the argument strength of a message has the highest impact on the intention.

MARKETING COMMUNICATION IN ONLINE SOCIAL PROGRAMS: OHANIAN MODEL OF SOURCE CREDIBILITY

OpenAIRE

Serban Corina

2010-01-01

The development of the Internet as a medium for interaction with customers has resulted in many changes regarding the promotion of organizations. Online marketing is nowadays used not only to sell a product on the market, but also requires ideas and behavioral change. Non-profit organizations active in online communication are based on the quality of their provided information. Crediblity, attractiveness and usefullness are the key elements that provide effective online social programs. This ...

Decision support system development at the Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, Timothy J.; Nelson, J. C.; Rohweder, Jason J.

2014-01-01

A Decision Support System (DSS) can be defined in many ways. The working definition used by the U.S. Geological Survey Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center (UMESC) is, “A spatially based computer application or data that assists a researcher or manager in making decisions.” This is quite a broad definition—and it needs to be, because the possibilities for types of DSSs are limited only by the user group and the developer’s imagination. There is no one DSS; the types of DSSs are as diverse as the problems they help solve. This diversity requires that DSSs be built in a variety of ways, using the most appropriate methods and tools for the individual application. The skills of potential DSS users vary widely as well, further necessitating multiple approaches to DSS development. Some small, highly trained user groups may want a powerful modeling tool with extensive functionality at the expense of ease of use. Other user groups less familiar with geographic information system (GIS) and spatial data may want an easy-to-use application for a nontechnical audience. UMESC has been developing DSSs for almost 20 years. Our DSS developers offer our partners a wide variety of technical skills and development options, ranging from the most simple Web page or small application to complex modeling application development.

A new decision sciences for complex systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Lempert, Robert J

2002-05-14

Models of complex systems can capture much useful information but can be difficult to apply to real-world decision-making because the type of information they contain is often inconsistent with that required for traditional decision analysis. New approaches, which use inductive reasoning over large ensembles of computational experiments, now make possible systematic comparison of alternative policy options using models of complex systems. This article describes Computer-Assisted Reasoning, an approach to decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty that is ideally suited to applying complex systems to policy analysis. The article demonstrates the approach on the policy problem of global climate change, with a particular focus on the role of technology policies in a robust, adaptive strategy for greenhouse gas abatement.

"It Was at the Library; Therefore It Must Be Credible": Mapping Patterns of Undergraduate Heuristic Decision-Making

Science.gov (United States)

McGeough, Ryan; Rudick, C. Kyle

2018-01-01

In this study, we explore the heuristic decision-making skills of undergraduate students as they incorporate information into their persuasive speeches. We interviewed 26 students enrolled in an introductory communication course to ascertain their information literacy for vetting sources for their public speeches. From their responses, we…

Science Process Skills in Science Curricula Applied in Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Yumusak, Güngör Keskinkiliç

2016-01-01

One of the most important objectives of the science curricula is to bring in science process skills. The science process skills are skills that lie under scientific thinking and decision-making. Thus it is important for a science curricula to be rationalized in such a way that it brings in science process skills. New science curricula were…

Defining the public, defining sociology: hybrid science-public relations and boundary-work in early American sociology.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Michael S

2009-01-01

In this paper, I examine how scientific disciplines define their boundaries by defining the publics with whom they engage. The case study is an episode in the development of early American sociology. In response to the dual challenge of credibility set up by the conflict between religious Baconian science and secular positivist science, key actors engaged in specific strategies of boundary-work to create their desired "sociological public"--a hybrid form of science-public relations that appealed to hostile university scientists while excluding a supportive religious audience from participation in the production of scientific knowledge. Using this case, I offer two specific insights. First I illustrate how, in the pursuit of scientific credibility, actors engage in boundary-work to differentiate audiences, not just practitioners. Such defining of publics is constitutive of scientific disciplines in their formative stage. Second, I demonstrate how audience boundaries can be redefined through the capture of existing boundary objects. Specifically, the removal of informational content in key boundary objects creates durable boundaries that are difficult to overcome.

Effects of argument quality, source credibility and self-reported diabetes knowledge on message attitudes: an experiment using diabetes related messages.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Tung-Cheng; Hwang, Lih-Lian; Lai, Yung-Jye

2017-05-17

Previous studies have reported that credibility and content (argument quality) are the most critical factors affecting the quality of health information and its acceptance and use; however, this causal relationship merits further investigation in the context of health education. Moreover, message recipients' prior knowledge may moderate these relationships. This study used the elaboration likelihood model to determine the main effects of argument quality, source credibility and the moderating effect of self-reported diabetes knowledge on message attitudes. A between-subjects experimental design using an educational message concerning diabetes for manipulation was applied to validate the effects empirically. A total of 181 participants without diabetes were recruited from the Department of Health, Taipei City Government. Four group messages were manipulated in terms of argument quality (high and low) × source credibility (high and low). Argument quality and source credibility of health information significantly influenced the attitude of message recipients. The participants with high self-reported knowledge participants exhibited significant disapproval for messages with low argument quality. Effective health information should provide objective descriptions and cite reliable sources; in addition, it should provide accurate, customised messages for recipients who have high background knowledge level and ability to discern message quality. © 2017 Health Libraries Group Health Information & Libraries Journal.

Lab coats in Hollywood science, scientists, and cinema

CERN Document Server

Kirby, David A

2013-01-01

Stanley Kubrick’s 2001: A Space Odyssey, released in 1968, is perhaps the most scientifically accurate film ever produced. The film presented such a plausible, realistic vision of space flight that many moon hoax proponents believe that Kubrick staged the 1969 moon landing using the same studios and techniques. Kubrick’s scientific verisimilitude in 2001 came courtesy of his science consultants—including two former NASA scientists—and the more than sixty-five companies, research organizations, and government agencies that offered technical advice. Although most filmmakers don’t consult experts as extensively as Kubrick did, films ranging from A Beautiful Mind and Contact to Finding Nemo and The Hulk have achieved some degree of scientific credibility because of science consultants. In Lab Coats in Hollywood, David Kirby examines the interaction of science and cinema: how science consultants make movie science plausible, how filmmakers negotiate scientific accuracy within production constraints, and ...

What are the roles of carers in decision-making for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis multidisciplinary care?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hogden A

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Anne Hogden,1 David Greenfield,1 Peter Nugus,1 Matthew C Kiernan21Centre for Clinical Governance Research, Australian Institute of Health Innovation, University of New South Wales, 2Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of New South Wales and Neuroscience Research Australia, Sydney, NSW, AustraliaPurpose: Family carers of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS are presumed to have frequent involvement in decision-making for symptom management and quality of life. To better understand and improve decision-making, we investigated the range and extent of carer participation in decision-making. By focusing on the perspectives of ALS support carers, the study aimed to explore carer participation in decision-making, to identify carer roles, and determine the facilitators and barriers to carer participation in decision-making for ALS multidisciplinary care.Participants and methods: An exploratory, in-depth study was conducted with eight carers of ALS patients from two specialized ALS multidisciplinary clinics. Carers participated in semi-structured interviews that were audio recorded and transcribed then coded and analyzed for emergent themes.Results: Carers made a significant contribution to ALS decision-making. Their roles were: promoting the patient voice, promoting patient health literacy, and providing emotional support and logistical assistance. Facilitators of carer participation in decision-making were perceived to be: health professional endorsement of patients' decision-making style; access to credible information sources; evidence-based information from the ALS clinic, ALS support association, and health practitioners; supportive relationships with family and friends; spiritual faith; ease of contact with ALS services; and availability of physical and practical support for carers. Barriers to carer participation included: changes to patient communication and cognition; conflict between respect for patients' independence and

76 FR 13182 - Science Advisory Board Staff Office; Notification of a Public Meeting of the Science Advisory...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-10

... a Public Meeting of the Science Advisory Board Committee on Science Integration for Decision Making... Agency (EPA or Agency) Science Advisory Board (SAB) Staff Office announces a public meeting of the SAB Committee on Science Integration for Decision Making. DATES: The meeting dates are March 29, 2011 from 9 a.m...

Information credibility for radiation contamination of foods after the Fukushima nuclear accident (3). Undergraduates panel data from one and four months after

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kusumi, Takashi; Miura, Asako; Ogura, Kanayo

2011-01-01

We examined the changes in information credibility, attitude of mass media, and risk perception concerning radiation contamination of foods after the Fukushima nuclear accident. We used a two-wave panel data of 277 undergraduates who completed the scales twice, one month and four months after the accident. Our findings indicated that the information credibility of optimistic experts, citizens' web pages and government press conferences decreased with time. On the other hand, the credibility of newspaper and TV news programs increased. In addition, while the critical attitude of mass media and the knowledge of radiation health effects increased after four months, the risk perception for foods under legal limits of radiation contamination decreased. A causal analysis carried out with the panel data found that (1) critical thinking attitude affected media literacy. In turn, (2) media literacy affected bias perception of mass media, information credibility, active information search, and risk perception of contamination foods. Finally, (3) this causal relationship was constant from the first to the fourth month after the accident. (author)

A new decision sciences for complex systems

OpenAIRE

Lempert, Robert J.

2002-01-01

Models of complex systems can capture much useful information but can be difficult to apply to real-world decision-making because the type of information they contain is often inconsistent with that required for traditional decision analysis. New approaches, which use inductive reasoning over large ensembles of computational experiments, now make possible systematic comparison of alternative policy options using models of complex systems. This article describes Computer-Assisted Reasoning, an...

The Science Manager's Guide to Case Studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Branch, Kristi M.; Peffers, Melissa S.; Ruegg, Rosalie T.; Vallario, Robert W.

2001-09-24

This guide takes the science manager through the steps of planning, implementing, validating, communicating, and using case studies. It outlines the major methods of analysis, describing their relative merits and applicability while providing relevant examples and sources of additional information. Well-designed case studies can provide a combination of rich qualitative and quantitative information, offering valuable insights into the nature, outputs, and longer-term impacts of the research. An objective, systematic, and credible approach to the evaluation of U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science programs adds value to the research process and is the subject of this guide.

Developing and user-testing Decision boxes to facilitate shared decision making in primary care - a study protocol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rousseau François

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Applying evidence is one of the most challenging steps of evidence-based clinical practice. Healthcare professionals have difficulty interpreting evidence and translating it to patients. Decision boxes are summaries of the most important benefits and harms of diagnostic, therapeutic, and preventive health interventions provided to healthcare professionals before they meet the patient. Our hypothesis is that Decision boxes will prepare clinicians to help patients make informed value-based decisions. By acting as primers, the boxes will enhance the application of evidence-based practices and increase shared decision making during the clinical encounter. The objectives of this study are to provide a framework for developing Decision boxes and testing their value to users. Methods/Design We will begin by developing Decision box prototypes for 10 clinical conditions or topics based on a review of the research on risk communication. We will present two prototypes to purposeful samples of 16 family physicians distributed in two focus groups, and 32 patients distributed in four focus groups. We will use the User Experience Model framework to explore users' perceptions of the content and format of each prototype. All discussions will be transcribed, and two researchers will independently perform a hybrid deductive/inductive thematic qualitative analysis of the data. The coding scheme will be developed a priori from the User Experience Model's seven themes (valuable, usable, credible, useful, desirable, accessible and findable, and will include new themes suggested by the data (inductive analysis. Key findings will be triangulated using additional publications on the design of tools to improve risk communication. All 10 Decision boxes will be modified in light of our findings. Discussion This study will produce a robust framework for developing and testing Decision boxes that will serve healthcare professionals and patients alike. It

Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Xin, Cao; Chongshi, Gu

2016-01-01

Risk analysis of gravity dam stability involves complicated uncertainty in many design parameters and measured data. Stability failure risk ratio described jointly by probability and possibility has deficiency in characterization of influence of fuzzy factors and representation of the likelihood of risk occurrence in practical engineering. In this article, credibility theory is applied into stability failure risk analysis of gravity dam. Stability of gravity dam is viewed as a hybrid event considering both fuzziness and randomness of failure criterion, design parameters and measured data. Credibility distribution function is conducted as a novel way to represent uncertainty of influence factors of gravity dam stability. And combining with Monte Carlo simulation, corresponding calculation method and procedure are proposed. Based on a dam section, a detailed application of the modeling approach on risk calculation of both dam foundation and double sliding surfaces is provided. The results show that, the present method is feasible to be applied on analysis of stability failure risk for gravity dams. The risk assessment obtained can reflect influence of both sorts of uncertainty, and is suitable as an index value.

Multiattribute Decision Making Based on Entropy under Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yingjun Zhang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Multiattribute decision making (MADM is one of the central problems in artificial intelligence, specifically in management fields. In most cases, this problem arises from uncertainty both in the data derived from the decision maker and the actions performed in the environment. Fuzzy set and high-order fuzzy sets were proven to be effective approaches in solving decision-making problems with uncertainty. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate the MADM problem with completely unknown attribute weights in the framework of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy (IVIF set (IVIFS. We first propose a new definition of IVIF entropy and some calculation methods for IVIF entropy. Furthermore, we propose an entropy-based decision-making method to solve IVIF MADM problems with completely unknown attribute weights. Particular emphasis is put on assessing the attribute weights based on IVIF entropy. Instead of the traditional methods, which use divergence among attributes or the probabilistic discrimination of attributes to obtain attribute weights, we utilize the IVIF entropy to assess the attribute weights based on the credibility of the decision-making matrix for solving the problem. Finally, a supplier selection example is given to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed MADM method.

Fast-track knowledge transfer from climate studies to user's decision-making process

Science.gov (United States)

Côté, Hélène; de Elía, Ramón; Larrivée, Caroline; Chaumont, Diane

2017-04-01

Over the last decade, many countries implemented various initiatives to bring their scientific community to develop more research projects addressing end-user needs. This shift in priorities gave rise to new expressions such as « actionable science », « co-production of knowledge » etc. This phenomenon is noteworthy in climate and climate change related research due to the pressing needs for societies to both adapt to climate change and quickly reduce greenhouse gases emissions. Although the attempt to include users into their projects made perfect sense, academic and even governmental researchers have often been overwhelmed by the "language barrier", the variety of needs, and the magnitude of the viewpoint change required to provide salient, credible and legitimate information to decision makers. In addition, many researchers worry that their growing involvement with users might jeopardize the progress of their own scientific interests and slowdown their academic careers. Useŕs needs are not necessarily well defined nor solely driven by scientific issues. They are a more or less complex mixture of short-term obligations like the sudden realization that an imminent decision needs to take climate change into account, long-term concerns about their risks and vulnerabilities, and knowledge gaps involving interdisciplinary inputs and communication challenges. In this context, the emergence of boundary organizations is a convincing approach to build the interface between science and end users. Since a single individual or even a single organization is rarely able to completely fulfill useŕs expectations, this presentation will show how strong and productive links between academia, boundary organization and users can stimulate knowledge transfer among all parties. To that purpose, examples will be taken from the 15-year existence of Ouranos Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change (Montreal, Canada). We will see how Ouranoś staff -with

Improving speed behaviour : the potential of in-car speed assistance and speed limit credibility.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nes, C.N. van Houtenbos, M. & Schagen, I.N.L.G. van

2009-01-01

Speeding is still a common practice on many roads and it contributes to a significant number of crashes. Two new approaches to solve speeding issues are focused on: intelligent speed assistance systems (ISA) and speed limit credibility. Research has indicated that ISA is promising with respect to

Astrobiology in culture: the search for extraterrestrial life as "science".

Science.gov (United States)

Billings, Linda

2012-10-01

This analysis examines the social construction of authority, credibility, and legitimacy for exobiology/astrobiology and, in comparison, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI), considering English-language conceptions of these endeavors in scientific culture and popular culture primarily in the United States. The questions that define astrobiology as a scientific endeavor are multidisciplinary in nature, and this endeavor is broadly appealing to public audiences as well as to the scientific community. Thus, it is useful to examine astrobiology in culture-in scientific culture, official culture, and popular culture. A researcher may explore science in culture, science as culture, by analyzing its rhetoric, the primary means that people use to construct their social realities-their cultural environment, as it were. This analysis follows this path, considering scientific and public interest in astrobiology and SETI and focusing on scientific and official constructions of the two endeavors. This analysis will also consider whether and how scientific and public conceptions of astrobiology and SETI, which are related but at the same time separate endeavors, converge or diverge and whether and how these convergences or divergences affect the scientific authority, credibility, and legitimacy of these endeavors.

Deciding on Science: An Analysis of Higher Education Science Student Major Choice Criteria

Science.gov (United States)

White, Stephen Wilson

The number of college students choosing to major in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) in the United States affects the size and quality of the American workforce (Winters, 2009). The number of graduates in these academic fields has been on the decline in the United States since the 1960s, which, according to Lips and McNeil (2009), has resulted in a diminished ability of the United States to compete in science and engineering on the world stage. The purpose of this research was to learn why students chose a STEM major and determine what decision criteria influenced this decision. According to Ajzen's (1991) theory of planned behavior (TPB), the key components of decision-making can be quantified and used as predictors of behavior. In this study the STEM majors' decision criteria were compared between different institution types (two-year, public four-year, and private four-year), and between demographic groups (age and sex). Career, grade, intrinsic, self-efficacy, and self-determination were reported as motivational factors by a majority of science majors participating in this study. Few students reported being influenced by friends and family when deciding to major in science. Science students overwhelmingly attributed the desire to solve meaningful problems as central to their decision to major in science. A majority of students surveyed credited a teacher for influencing their desire to pursue science as a college major. This new information about the motivational construct of the studied group of science majors can be applied to the previously stated problem of not enough STEM majors in the American higher education system to provide workers required to fill the demand of a globally STEM-competitive United States (National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, & Institute of Medicine, 2010).

How to make the best decision. Philosophical aspects of clinical decision theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Wulff, H R

1981-01-01

An attempt is made to discuss some of the philosophical implications of the use of decision-analytic techniques. The probabilities of a decision analysis are subjective measures of belief, and it is concluded that clinicians base their subjective beliefs on both recorded observations and theoretical knowledge. The clinical decision maker also evaluates the consequences of his actions, and therefore clinical decision theory transcends medical science. A number of different schools of normative ethics are mentioned to illustrate the complexity of everyday decision making. The philosophical terminology is useful for the analysis of clinical problems, and it is argued that clinical decision making has both a teleological and a deontological component. The results of decision-analytic studies depend on such factors as the wealth of the country, the organization of the health service, and cultural norms.

Articulating social science in the wild of global natures?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blok, Anders

2014-01-01

Building on multisited ethnographic case studies, this paper seeks to contrastively compare the demonstration and articulation formats of two social science expert cultures—economics and anthropology—enrolled ‘in the wild’ of transnational environmental politics. How, the paper asks, do different......) similarities, related to credible expert demonstrations in transnational environmental contexts. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of this claim for STS self-reflection on its politics of methods....

Psychoanalysis as a science: a response to the new challenges.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallerstein, R S

1986-07-01

Few theoretical issues in psychoanalysis have been more constantly argued than the status of our discipline as a science. For long the attack has been from the logical positivists and the extensions of their argument by Karl Popper. Over recent decades the debate about the place of our metapsychology has intensified the concerns about our scientific status. In this paper I respond briefly to the logical positivist, the Popperian, and the information-processing systems theory arguments and then develop at greater length a response to the two current, most widespread philosophy-of-science assaults upon our credibility as science, that of the hermeneuticists (Ricoeur, Habermas, Gadamer, and others), and the newest, that of the philosopher, Adolf Grünbaum.

Credibility and persuasion: A sociopsychological approach to changing the attitudes toward energy conservation of preservice elementary school science teachers

Science.gov (United States)

Koballa, Thomas R., Jr.; Shrigley, Robert L.

Tested was the effect of two persuasive messages presented by a credible communicator on the attitudes toward energy conservation of 180 preservice elementary teachers. The study asked the following questions: (1) Can attitudes toward energy conservation be positively changed with a brief, belief-laden communication? (2) Do positive attitude gains between pre- and post-tests, if any, dissipate within three weeks following the treatment? (3) Do the integrated and the nonintegrated communications affect energy attitudes of three subgroups (abstract, concrete differentiator and concrete thinkers) of the sample differently? The important finding was that both experimental treatments, integrated and nonintegrated, were equally effective and significantly more effective in attitude change than the control. Secondly, the finding that neither experimental treatment dissipated in effect, at least for three weeks, suggests some duration of brief treatment periods. And finally, the attitude changes are as likely to occur when concrete differentiators are presented with a nonintegrated as an integrated treatment, but abstract thinkers exposed to the integrated treatment and concrete thinkers exposed to the nonintegrated treatment sustain a changed attitude to a greater degree than other combinations of treatment and cognitive processing styles.

Open access: changing global science publishing.

Science.gov (United States)

Gasparyan, Armen Yuri; Ayvazyan, Lilit; Kitas, George D

2013-08-01

The article reflects on open access as a strategy of changing the quality of science communication globally. Successful examples of open-access journals are presented to highlight implications of archiving in open digital repositories for the quality and citability of research output. Advantages and downsides of gold, green, and hybrid models of open access operating in diverse scientific environments are described. It is assumed that open access is a global trend which influences the workflow in scholarly journals, changing their quality, credibility, and indexability.

Minerva: An Integrated Geospatial/Temporal Toolset for Real-time Science Decision Making and Data Collection

Science.gov (United States)

Lees, D. S.; Cohen, T.; Deans, M. C.; Lim, D. S. S.; Marquez, J.; Heldmann, J. L.; Hoffman, J.; Norheim, J.; Vadhavk, N.

2016-12-01

Minerva integrates three capabilities that are critical to the success of NASA analogs. It combines NASA's Exploration Ground Data Systems (xGDS) and Playbook software, and MIT's Surface Exploration Traverse Analysis and Navigation Tool (SEXTANT). Together, they help to plan, optimize, and monitor traverses; schedule and track activity; assist with science decision-making and document sample and data collection. Pre-mission, Minerva supports planning with a priori map data (e.g., UAV and satellite imagery) and activity scheduling. During missions, xGDS records and broadcasts live data to a distributed team who take geolocated notes and catalogue samples. Playbook provides live schedule updates and multi-media chat. Post-mission, xGDS supports data search and visualization for replanning and analysis. NASA's BASALT (Biologic Analog Science Associated with Lava Terrains) and FINESSE (Field Investigations to Enable Solar System Science and Exploration) projects use Minerva to conduct field science under simulated Mars mission conditions including 5 and 15 minute one-way communication delays. During the recent BASALT-FINESSE mission, two field scientists (EVA team) executed traverses across volcanic terrain to characterize and sample basalts. They wore backpacks with communications and imaging capabilities, and carried field portable spectrometers. The Science Team was 40 km away in a simulated mission control center. The Science Team monitored imaging (video and still), spectral, voice, location and physiological data from the EVA team via the network from the field, under communication delays. Minerva provided the Science Team with a unified context of operations at the field site, so they could make meaningful remote contributions to the collection of 10's of geotagged samples. Minerva's mission architecture will be presented with technical details and capabilities. Through the development, testing and application of Minerva, we are defining requirements for the

Credibility issue

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoos, I.R.

1978-01-01

One doesn't know whom to believe among the many experts on the disposition of radioactive wastes, and hence he is thrown on naive faith, scientists' and engineers' faith, and fatalistic faith in science and technology. Despite the general faith in disposal in salt beds, geologists have reservations regarding this mode of disposal. The tendency of some experts to shift the disposal problem to someone else is pointed out. Need for public participation remains

Communication as a Strategic Activity (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Fischhoff, B.

2010-12-01

Effective communication requires preparation. The first step is explicit analysis of the decisions faced by audience members, in order to identify the facts essential to their choices. The second step is assessing their current beliefs, in order to identify the gaps in their understanding, as well as their natural ways of thinking. The third step is drafting communications potentially capable of closing those gaps, taking advantage of the relevant behavioral science. The fourth step is empirically evaluating those communications, refining them as necessary. The final step is communicating through trusted channels, capable of getting the message out and receiving needed feedback. Executing these steps requires a team involving subject matter experts (for ensuring that the science is right), decision analysts (for identifying the decision-critical facts), behavioral scientists (for designing and evaluating messages), and communication specialists (for creating credible channels). Larger organizations should be able to assemble those teams and anticipate their communication needs. However, even small organizations, individuals, or large organizations that have been caught flat-footed can benefit from quickly assembling informal teams, before communicating in ways that might undermine their credibility. The work is not expensive, but does require viewing communication as a strategic activity, rather than an afterthought. The talk will illustrate the science base, with a few core research results; note the risks of miscommunication, with a few bad examples; and suggest the opportunities for communication leadership, focusing on the US Food and Drug Administration.

Family experiences, the motivation for science learning and science ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Schulze, Salome

Student Motivation for Science Learning questionnaire combined with items investigating family experiences. The findings .... decisions and formulate behavioural goals for their ..... science achievement, making interpretation diffi- cult and ...

Boosted decision trees and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coadou, Y.

2013-01-01

Decision trees are a machine learning technique more and more commonly used in high energy physics, while it has been widely used in the social sciences. After introducing the concepts of decision trees, this article focuses on its application in particle physics. (authors)

Using structured decision making to manage disease risk for Montana wildlife

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, Michael S.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.; Ramsey, Jennifer M.; Thompson, Michael J.; Sullivan, Mark G.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gower, Claire N.; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Irwin, Elise R.; Walshe, Terry

2013-01-01

We used structured decision-making to develop a 2-part framework to assist managers in the proactive management of disease outbreaks in Montana, USA. The first part of the framework is a model to estimate the probability of disease outbreak given field observations available to managers. The second part of the framework is decision analysis that evaluates likely outcomes of management alternatives based on the estimated probability of disease outbreak, and applies managers' values for different objectives to indicate a preferred management strategy. We used pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) as a case study for our approach, applying it to 2 populations in Montana that differed in their likelihood of a pneumonia outbreak. The framework provided credible predictions of both probability of disease outbreaks, as well as biological and monetary consequences of management actions. The structured decision-making approach to this problem was valuable for defining the challenges of disease management in a decentralized agency where decisions are generally made at the local level in cooperation with stakeholders. Our approach provides local managers with the ability to tailor management planning for disease outbreaks to local conditions. Further work is needed to refine our disease risk models and decision analysis, including robust prediction of disease outbreaks and improved assessment of management alternatives.

Framing decisions decision-making that accounts for irrationality, people and constraints

CERN Document Server

Frame, J Davidson

2012-01-01

The economic crisis of 2008-2009 was a transformational event: it demonstrated that smart people aren''t as smart as they and the public think. The crisis arose because a lot of highly educated people in high-impact positions- political power brokers, business leaders, and large segments of the general public-made a lot of bad decisions despite unprecedented access to data, highly sophisticated decision support systems, methodological advances in the decision sciences, and guidance from highly experienced experts. How could we get things so wrong? The answer, says J. Davidson Frame in Framing

Extracting Credible Dependencies for Averaged One-Dependence Estimator Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

LiMin Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Of the numerous proposals to improve the accuracy of naive Bayes (NB by weakening the conditional independence assumption, averaged one-dependence estimator (AODE demonstrates remarkable zero-one loss performance. However, indiscriminate superparent attributes will bring both considerable computational cost and negative effect on classification accuracy. In this paper, to extract the most credible dependencies we present a new type of seminaive Bayesian operation, which selects superparent attributes by building maximum weighted spanning tree and removes highly correlated children attributes by functional dependency and canonical cover analysis. Our extensive experimental comparison on UCI data sets shows that this operation efficiently identifies possible superparent attributes at training time and eliminates redundant children attributes at classification time.

A decision model for planetary missions

Science.gov (United States)

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.; Brigadier, W. L.

1976-01-01

Many techniques developed for the solution of problems in economics and operations research are directly applicable to problems involving engineering trade-offs. This paper investigates the use of utility theory for decision making in planetary exploration space missions. A decision model is derived that accounts for the objectives of the mission - science - the cost of flying the mission and the risk of mission failure. A simulation methodology for obtaining the probability distribution of science value and costs as a function spacecraft and mission design is presented and an example application of the decision methodology is given for various potential alternatives in a comet Encke mission.

Dissolving decision making? : Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, S.

2014-01-01

This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making.

The Role of Credibility In the Design of Mobile Solutions To Enhance the Social Skill-Set of Teenagers Diagnosed with Autism

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gerdes, Anne; Øhrstrøm, Peter

2011-01-01

Purpose – Helping Autism-diagnosed teenagers navigate and develop socially (HANDS) is an EU research project in progress. The aim of HANDS is to investigate the potential of persuasive technology as a tool to help young people diagnosed, to whatever degree, as autistic. The HANDS project set out...... the necessity of certain preconditions requisite for evaluating the credibility of a system; and, in this way, seek to establish an ethically sound evaluation procedure for analysing credibility, by combining quantitative (i.e. electronic footprints) and qualitative assessments (i.e. dialogue between teacher...... to develop mobile ICT solutions to help young people with autism become more fully integrated into society and the purpose of this paper is to present an overview of the design behind the HANDS toolset. Design/methodology/approach – The topic of credibility is approached from an analytical, as well...

Decision Making Under Uncertainty - Bridging the Gap Between End User Needs and Science Capability

Science.gov (United States)

Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A.; Austin, E. K.

2012-12-01

Successful adaptation outcomes depend on decision making based on the best available climate science information. However, a fundamental barrier exists, namely the 'gap' between information that climate science can currently provide and the information that is practically useful for end users and decision makers. This study identifies the major contributing factors to the 'gap' from an Australian perspective and provides recommendations as to ways in which the 'gap' may be narrowed. This was achieved via a literature review, online survey (targeted to providers of climate information and end users of that information), workshop (where both climate scientists and end users came together to discuss key issues) and focus group. The study confirmed that uncertainty in climate science is a key barrier to adaptation. The issue of uncertainty was found to be multi-faceted, with issues identified in terms of communication of uncertainty, misunderstanding of uncertainty and the lack of tools/methods to deal with uncertainty. There were also key differences in terms of expectations for the future - most end users were of the belief that uncertainty associated with future climate projections would reduce within the next five to 10 years, however producers of climate science information were well aware that this would most likely not be the case. This is a concerning finding as end users may delay taking action on adaptation and risk planning until the uncertainties are reduced - a situation which may never eventuate or may occur after the optimal time for action. Improved communication and packaging of climate information was another key theme that was highlighted in this study. Importantly, it was made clear that improved communication is not just about more glossy brochures and presentations by climate scientists, rather there is a role for a program or group to fill this role (coined a 'knowledge broker' during the workshop and focus group). The role of the 'knowledge

Disagreement in expectations and the credibility of monetary authorities in the Brazilian inflation targeting regime

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luciano Vereda Oliveira

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Based on market expectations reported by the Central Bank of Brazil for the SELIC interest rate, the IPCA inflation, the exchange rate (BRL/USD and the growth rate of industrial production for four different forecasting horizons, this work analyzes the term structures of disagreement in expectations regarding the future values of these variables. It also investigates the driving factors of disagreement, paying special attention to the influence of monetary authorities’ credibility. An extensive regression analysis shows that the levels of the term structures of disagreement are negatively related to the output gap (although this result is not very robust; and that the levels of the term structures of disagreement in expectations about the IPCA inflation rate and the SELIC interest rate have a strong negative relationship with central bankers’ credibility; this relationship is positive in the case of the growth rate of industrial production.

How Source Information Shapes Lay Interpretations of Science Conflicts: Interplay between Sourcing, Conflict Explanation, Source Evaluation, and Claim Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Thomm, Eva; Bromme, Rainer

2016-01-01

When laypeople read controversial scientific information in order to make a personally relevant decision, information on the source is a valuable resource with which to evaluate multiple, competing claims. Due to their bounded understanding, laypeople rely on the expertise of others and need to identify whether sources are credible. The present…

The Influence of Peer Reviews on Source Credibility and Purchase Intention

OpenAIRE

Nowak, Kristine; McGloin, Rory

2014-01-01

Electronic Word of Mouth (eWOM) is information shared on the Internet about a product, which allows people to receive information from others they may not otherwise encounter. Online product reviews are a type of eWOM where a user posts a comment about a product and selects an image to represent the self. The perception of the image and the text in the product review can influence source credibility and the perception of the product, as well as the likelihood that someone will purchase the pr...

Why do girls persist in science? A qualitative study of the decision-making processes of pre-adolescent and adolescent girls

Science.gov (United States)

James, Holly Mcdonnell

2002-09-01

Girls are often found to drop out of science in greater numbers and sooner than boys. Because previous research has focused on gender differences, rather than examining differences and similarities among girls, little is known about why some girls choose to pursue science, particularly the physical sciences, rather than drop it. Specifically, little is known about how and why girls make their decisions to persist or not in specific science careers and the courses leading up to them. Through the use of semi-structured, in-depth, qualitative, interviews conducted over the span of a year, this thesis explored the choice of classes and career decisions of twelve elementary through high school girls who participated in an engineering camp. The purpose was to gain an understanding of why these girls chose to persist or not in a science and engineering career over time. Age-related differences were found in the reasons the girls gave for wanting to take future classes. The elementary school girls believed that interest would be their only reason while the high school girls gave multiple reasons, including interest, utility, perceptions of ability, and who would be teaching the class. The implications of these findings for Eccles' model of academic choice are discussed. Overall, the girls in this study liked their science classes because they involved hands-on activities. By high school they showed a preference for and a greater knowledge of biology rather than physics. All of the girls were unsure about what kinds of science information they would need to know for future jobs. Half of the girls were considering biology-based careers, such as doctors and veterinarians, because they wanted to help and take care of people and animals. Only one girl was considering engineering, a physics-based career, and only because her parents required it. Despite believing that they were doing well in school in general, at least half of the girls believed they were doing poorly in math

Relationship between green marketing strategies and green marketing credibility among Generation Y

OpenAIRE

Garcia Sandoval, Michelle Haeberli; Manon Padilla, Alejandro

2016-01-01

Since terms like “sustainability” and “consumer consciousness” were introduced, green products began being integrated into consumers’ lifestyles. But due to the greenwashing practices that took place during the 90’s consumers refrain to buy green products because they do not trust the advertising released by marketers. The purpose of this thesis is to explore the relationship between green advertising credibility (dependent variable) and price sensitiveness, and the four proposed green market...

From science to action: Principles for undertaking environmental research that enables knowledge exchange and evidence-based decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Cvitanovic, C; McDonald, J; Hobday, A J

2016-12-01

Effective conservation requires knowledge exchange among scientists and decision-makers to enable learning and support evidence-based decision-making. Efforts to improve knowledge exchange have been hindered by a paucity of empirically-grounded guidance to help scientists and practitioners design and implement research programs that actively facilitate knowledge exchange. To address this, we evaluated the Ningaloo Research Program (NRP), which was designed to generate new scientific knowledge to support evidence-based decisions about the management of the Ningaloo Marine Park in north-western Australia. Specifically, we evaluated (1) outcomes of the NRP, including the extent to which new knowledge informed management decisions; (2) the barriers that prevented knowledge exchange among scientists and managers; (3) the key requirements for improving knowledge exchange processes in the future; and (4) the core capacities that are required to support knowledge exchange processes. While the NRP generated expansive and multidisciplinary science outputs directly relevant to the management of the Ningaloo Marine Park, decision-makers are largely unaware of this knowledge and little has been integrated into decision-making processes. A range of barriers prevented efficient and effective knowledge exchange among scientists and decision-makers including cultural differences among the groups, institutional barriers within decision-making agencies, scientific outputs that were not translated for decision-makers and poor alignment between research design and actual knowledge needs. We identify a set of principles to be implemented routinely as part of any applied research program, including; (i) stakeholder mapping prior to the commencement of research programs to identify all stakeholders, (ii) research questions to be co-developed with stakeholders, (iii) implementation of participatory research approaches, (iv) use of a knowledge broker, and (v) tailored knowledge management

A proactive public information policy: a key element for regulator independence and credibility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kindelan, J.M.

2001-01-01

The future of the nuclear industry will depend to a large extent on the perception that the members of the public have of it. However, our mission as regulatory bodies is not to change the pro-or anti- nuclear feelings of the public, but to set in them the confidence that the use currently made of nuclear energy is carried out with the greatest guarantees of safety. We should continue to avoid their feeling of fear without reasons or their perception of uncertainty regarding processes that are duly controlled and supervised. I am convinced that whatever progress we make in increasing transparency will lead to an increase in the public credibility of the organisations that we represent. The reason underlying our need for this credibility, this reputation for autonomy and efficiency, for good performance, is that without it we will not have sufficient authority in the eyes of the regulated sector or other private political and economic interests, and will not, therefore, be in a position to provide a sensation of confidence to the members of the public, whose tranquillity and interests are our obligation. (author)

Organising evidence for environmental management decisions: a '4S' hierarchy.

Science.gov (United States)

Dicks, Lynn V; Walsh, Jessica C; Sutherland, William J

2014-11-01

Making decisions informed by the best-available science is an objective for many organisations managing the environment or natural resources. Yet, available science is still not widely used in environmental policy and practice. We describe a '4S' hierarchy for organising relevant science to inform decisions. This hierarchy has already revolutionised clinical practice. It is beginning to emerge for environmental management, although all four levels need substantial development before environmental decision-makers can reliably and efficiently find the evidence they need. We expose common bypass routes that currently lead to poor or biased representation of scientific knowledge. We argue that the least developed level of the hierarchy is that closest to decision-makers, placing synthesised scientific knowledge into environmental decision support systems. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Psychology as a Science of Subject and Comportment, beyond the Mind and Behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Álvarez, Marino

2018-03-01

The turn of qualitative inquiry suggests a more open, plural conception of psychology than just the science of the mind and behavior as it is most commonly defined. Historical, ontological and epistemological binding of this conception of psychology to the positivist method of natural science may have exhausted its possibilities, and after having contributed to its prestige as a science, has now become an obstacle. It is proposed that psychology be reconceived as a science of subject and comportment in the framework of a contextual hermeneutic, social, human behavioral science. Thus, without rejecting quantitative inquiry, psychology recovers territory left aside like introspection and pre-reflective self-awareness, and reconnects with traditions marginalized from the main stream. From this perspective psychology might also recover its credibility as a human science in view of current skepticism.

Students’ Trust Formation and Credibility Judgements in Online Health Information – A Review Article

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahmood Khosrowjerdi

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Health information is a frequent subject for online information seeking. Research on the phenomenon has to a certain extent included students. This review, based on an analysis of 61 articles, shows the current state of the art of research on students’ trust in online health information. The review covers methodological approaches and findings of previous previous empirical studies: research design; trustworthy health information sources; credibility assessment; and factors impacting on trust formation. The analysis of research designs reveals that the survey method was most frequent, but small qualitative studies were also occurring. More than half of the studies were administered in the USA, while only a smaller part concerned ‘non-Western’ countries. Female subjects were more frequent than male.The concept of trust was not always explicitly defined in the studies. The students' actual propensity to use internet was generally taken as an expression of trust. The antecedents of trust identified in the studies can be summarized as the perceived quality of the information, the perceived credibility of the source or source provider, the users’ general inclination to trust, the actual use of information, and the perceived intelligibility of the information. The findings show that Internet was among the main sources for health information, but parents or other family members, friends, schools, health professionals were also frequent sources of health information, and students were not immediately accepting online information as trustworthy. The students’ trust and credibility judgments were influenced by social and demographic, cultural, psychological, knowledge and skills-related, and source, system and content-related factors. Governmental and organizational websites were reported as the most trustful sources, although some issues regarding website features and presentation of content were reported as barriers. Easy access were of

The Effects of Source Credibility in the Presence or Absence of Prior Attitudes: Implications for the Design of Persuasive Communication Campaigns1

OpenAIRE

Kumkale, G. Tarcan; AlbarracÍn, Dolores; Seignourel, Paul J.

2010-01-01

Most theories of persuasion predict that limited ability and motivation to think about communications should increase the impact of source credibility on persuasion. Furthermore, this effect is assumed to occur, regardless of whether or not the recipients have prior attitudes. In this study, the effects of source credibility, ability, and motivation (knowledge, message repetition, relevance) on persuasion were examined meta-analytically across both attitude formation and change conditions. Fi...

Corals, Canyons, and Conservation: Science Based Fisheries Management Decisions in the Eastern Bering Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steve A. MacLean

2017-05-01

Full Text Available When making science matter for conservation, marine conservation practitioners, and managers must be prepared to make the appropriate decision based on the results of the best available science used to inform it. For nearly a decade, many stakeholders encouraged the North Pacific Fishery Management Council to enact protections for deep-sea corals in several canyons in the Eastern Bering Sea slope. In 2014, at the request of the Council, the National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center conducted a strip-transect survey along the Eastern Bering Sea slope to validate the results of a model predicting the occurrence of deep-sea coral habitat. More than 250,000 photos were analyzed to estimate coral, sponge, and sea whip abundance, distribution, height, and vulnerability to anthropogenic damage. The results of the survey confirmed that coral habitat and occurrence was concentrated around Pribilof Canyon and the adjacent slope. The results also confirmed that the densities of corals in the Eastern Bering Sea were low, even where they occurred. After reviewing the best available scientific information, the Council concluded that there is no scientific evidence to suggest that deep-sea corals in the Eastern Bering Sea slope or canyons are at risk from commercial fisheries under the current management structure, and that special protections for deep-sea corals were not warranted.

actuar: An R Package for Actuarial Science

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Christophe Dutang

2008-02-01

Full Text Available actuar is a package providing additional Actuarial Science functionality to the R statistical system. The project was launched in 2005 and the package is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network since February 2006. The current version of the package contains functions for use in the fields of loss distributions modeling, risk theory (including ruin theory, simulation of compound hierarchical models and credibility theory. This paper presents in detail but with few technical terms the most recent version of the package.

Opening Pandora's Box: Texas Elementary Campus Administrators use of Educational Policy And Highly Qualified Classroom Teachers Professional Development through Data-informed Decisions for Science Education

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Linda Lou

Federal educational policy, No Child Left Behind Act of 2001, focused attention on America's education with conspicuous results. One aspect, highly qualified classroom teacher and principal (HQ), was taxing since states established individual accountability structures. The HQ impact and use of data-informed decision-making (DIDM) for Texas elementary science education monitoring by campus administrators, Campus Instruction Leader (CILs), provides crucial relationships to 5th grade students' learning and achievement. Forty years research determined improved student results when sustained, supported, and focused professional development (PD) for teachers is available. Using mixed methods research, this study applied quantitative and qualitative analysis from two, electronic, on-line surveys: Texas Elementary, Intermediate or Middle School Teacher Survey(c) and the Texas Elementary Campus Administrator Survey(c) with results from 22.3% Texas school districts representing 487 elementary campuses surveyed. Participants selected in random, stratified sampling of 5th grade teachers who attended local Texas Regional Collaboratives science professional development (PD) programs between 2003-2008. Survey information compared statistically to campus-level average passing rate scores on the 5th grade science TAKS using Statistical Process Software (SPSS). Written comments from both surveys analyzed with Qualitative Survey Research (NVivo) software. Due to the level of uncertainty of variables within a large statewide study, Mauchly's Test of Sphericity statistical test used to validate repeated measures factor ANOVAs. Although few individual results were statistically significant, when jointly analyzed, striking constructs were revealed regarding the impact of HQ policy applications and elementary CILs use of data-informed decisions on improving 5th grade students' achievement and teachers' PD learning science content. Some constructs included the use of data

Efficient group decision making in workshop settings

Science.gov (United States)

Daniel L. Schmoldt; David L. Peterson

2001-01-01

Public land managers must treat multiple values coincidentally in time and space, which requires the participation of multiple resource specialists and consideration of diverse clientele interests in the decision process. This implies decision making that includes multiple participants, both internally and externally. Decades of social science research on decision...

Interviewing to assess credibility in the Swedish asylum procedure: analyzing question style, type and theme

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Veldhuizen, T.S.; Horselenberg, R.; Landström, S.; Granhag, P.A.; van Koppen, P.J.

2017-01-01

The aim of the current vignette study is to map the style, type, and themes of questions that are asked when assessing the credibility of asylum seekers' claims. Sixty-five officials from the Swedish Migration Agency (Migrationsverket), were asked to respond to one out of four different vignettes

Improving Bayesian credibility intervals for classifier error rates using maximum entropy empirical priors.

Science.gov (United States)

Gustafsson, Mats G; Wallman, Mikael; Wickenberg Bolin, Ulrika; Göransson, Hanna; Fryknäs, M; Andersson, Claes R; Isaksson, Anders

2010-06-01

Successful use of classifiers that learn to make decisions from a set of patient examples require robust methods for performance estimation. Recently many promising approaches for determination of an upper bound for the error rate of a single classifier have been reported but the Bayesian credibility interval (CI) obtained from a conventional holdout test still delivers one of the tightest bounds. The conventional Bayesian CI becomes unacceptably large in real world applications where the test set sizes are less than a few hundred. The source of this problem is that fact that the CI is determined exclusively by the result on the test examples. In other words, there is no information at all provided by the uniform prior density distribution employed which reflects complete lack of prior knowledge about the unknown error rate. Therefore, the aim of the study reported here was to study a maximum entropy (ME) based approach to improved prior knowledge and Bayesian CIs, demonstrating its relevance for biomedical research and clinical practice. It is demonstrated how a refined non-uniform prior density distribution can be obtained by means of the ME principle using empirical results from a few designs and tests using non-overlapping sets of examples. Experimental results show that ME based priors improve the CIs when employed to four quite different simulated and two real world data sets. An empirically derived ME prior seems promising for improving the Bayesian CI for the unknown error rate of a designed classifier. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using the National Information Infrastructure for social science, education, and informed decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tonn, B.E.

1994-01-07

The United States has aggressively embarked on the challenging task of building a National Information Infrastructure (NII). This infrastructure will have many levels, extending from the building block capital stock that composes the telecommunications system to the multitude of higher tier applications hardware and software tied to this system. This ``White Paper`` presents a vision for a second and third tier national information infrastructure that focuses exclusively on the needs of social science, education, and decision making (NII-SSEDM). NII-SSEDM will provide the necessary data, information, and automated decision support and educational tools needed to help this nation solve its most pressing social problems. The proposed system has five components: `data collection systems; databases; statistical analysis and modeling tools; policy analysis and decision support tools; and materials and software specially designed for education. This paper contains: a vision statement for each component; comments on progress made on each component as of the early 1990s; and specific recommendations on how to achieve the goals described in the vision statements. The white paper also discusses how the NII-SSEDM could be used to address four major social concerns: ensuring economic prosperity; health care; reducing crime and violence; and K-12 education. Examples of near-term and mid-term goals (e.g., pre-and post Year 2000) are presented for consideration. Although the development of NII-SSEDM will require a concerted effort by government, the private sector, schools, and numerous other organizations, the success of NH-SSEDM is predicated upon the identification of an institutional ``champion`` to acquire and husband key resources and provide strong leadership and guidance.

Motivation and Treatment Credibility Predicts Dropout, Treatment Adherence, and Clinical Outcomes in an Internet-Based Cognitive Behavioral Relaxation Program: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Alfonsson, Sven; Olsson, Erik; Hursti, Timo

2016-03-08

In previous research, variables such as age, education, treatment credibility, and therapeutic alliance have shown to affect patients' treatment adherence and outcome in Internet-based psychotherapy. A more detailed understanding of how such variables are associated with different measures of adherence and clinical outcomes may help in designing more effective online therapy. The aims of this study were to investigate demographical, psychological, and treatment-specific variables that could predict dropout, treatment adherence, and treatment outcomes in a study of online relaxation for mild to moderate stress symptoms. Participant dropout and attrition as well as data from self-report instruments completed before, during, and after the online relaxation program were analyzed. Multiple linear and logistical regression analyses were conducted to predict early dropout, overall attrition, online treatment progress, number of registered relaxation exercises, posttreatment symptom levels, and reliable improvement. Dropout was significantly predicted by treatment credibility, whereas overall attrition was associated with reporting a focus on immediate consequences and experiencing a low level of intrinsic motivation for the treatment. Treatment progress was predicted by education level and treatment credibility, whereas number of registered relaxation exercises was associated with experiencing intrinsic motivation for the treatment. Posttreatment stress symptoms were positively predicted by feeling external pressure to participate in the treatment and negatively predicted by treatment credibility. Reporting reliable symptom improvement after treatment was predicted by treatment credibility and therapeutic bond. This study confirmed that treatment credibility and a good working alliance are factors associated with successful Internet-based psychotherapy. Further, the study showed that measuring adherence in different ways provides somewhat different results, which

Risk Engineering, Sciences, Computation, and Informed Decisions, Phase II

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Wrong decisions during the missions can lead to an unsafe condition or immediate failure, while correct decisions can help continue the missions even from faulty...

Management and Decisions in the Structures of Human Activities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tadeusz Galanc

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This article has been devoted to the key dimensions of decision-making. The main goal of the authors was to point out the role and effect of invariants of nature, logic and conceptual systems of science and management, which are extremely important in decision-making processes. The research hypothesis has been tested that the complexity of decision-making and management are determined by the state of reality (Nature. This hypothesis is related to the fact that in science there is currently no uniform methodology associated with decision-making, just as science is not methodologically uniform. One can even doubt whether it is possible to describe the essential dimensions of decisions undertaken by Man, as discussed in this article. These problems are not a novelty to science, since they have been analysed by many scientists in the past. The authors of the article present the complexity and diversity of concepts defining systems of decision-making and management, based on selected fields of knowledge which are generally relevant to this issue, in particular fields associated with ontology and epistemology. Therefore, the text refers broadly to investigating the reality of basic areas of human knowledge and the overlapping relationships between them. This applies to the so-called circle of the sciences proposed and examined by the psychologist J. Piaget. An additional aim of the authors was to create a text presenting contemporary human knowledge about the reality which surrounds us. To understand reality means to be in relative equilibrium with it. (original abstract

The Project Based Mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol. Credible Instruments or Challenges to the Integrity of the Kyoto Protocol?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Takeuchi Waldegren, Linn

2006-03-15

The project based mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol are innovative instruments which allow projects to earn credits for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The credits can in turn be used by countries to reach their emissions targets according to the Kyoto Protocol. The Project based mechanisms are known as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and the Joint Implementation (JI). If the project based mechanisms are to be effective policy instruments they must ensure the integrity of the Kyoto Protocol, and their ability to promote and prove real emission reductions is critical. The environmental credibility of the project based mechanisms will also ensure their ability to promote cost effectiveness. Key concepts in this context are environmental and project additionality, and their role and value for the project based mechanisms are analyzed. Environmental additionality is established by comparing a project's emissions to a baseline. The baseline's credibility is thus vital. The concept of project additionality is somewhat controversial, but is nonetheless of equal importance. The case studies of CDM approved methodologies (AMs) and proposed projects suggest that there are credibility issues that need to be addressed if the project based mechanisms are to promote real emissions reductions.

Judgment and decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischhoff, Baruch

2010-09-01

The study of judgment and decision making entails three interrelated forms of research: (1) normative analysis, identifying the best courses of action, given decision makers' values; (2) descriptive studies, examining actual behavior in terms comparable to the normative analyses; and (3) prescriptive interventions, helping individuals to make better choices, bridging the gap between the normative ideal and the descriptive reality. The research is grounded in analytical foundations shared by economics, psychology, philosophy, and management science. Those foundations provide a framework for accommodating affective and social factors that shape and complement the cognitive processes of decision making. The decision sciences have grown through applications requiring collaboration with subject matter experts, familiar with the substance of the choices and the opportunities for interventions. Over the past half century, the field has shifted its emphasis from predicting choices, which can be successful without theoretical insight, to understanding the processes shaping them. Those processes are often revealed through biases that suggest non-normative processes. The practical importance of these biases depends on the sensitivity of specific decisions and the support that individuals have in making them. As a result, the field offers no simple summary of individuals' competence as decision makers, but a suite of theories and methods suited to capturing these sensitivities. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.