Preferences of and Attitudes toward Treble Choral Ensembles
Wilson, Jill M.
2012-01-01
In choral ensembles, a pursuit where females far outnumber males, concern exists that females are being devalued. Attitudes of female choral singers may be negatively affected by the gender imbalance that exists in mixed choirs and by the placement of the mixed choir as the most select ensemble in a program. The purpose of this research was to…
Jones, Sara K.
2018-01-01
The purpose of this comparative case study was to examine the motivation for participation in traditional and non-traditional vocal ensembles by students who are not pursuing a career in music and the perceived benefits of this participation. Participants were selected from a traditional mixed choral ensemble and a student-run a cappella ensemble.…
Voice Range Profiles of Middle School and High School Choral Directors
Schwartz, Sandra M.
2009-01-01
Vocal demands of teaching are significant, and this challenge is compounded for choral directors who depend on the voice for communicating information or demonstrating music concepts. The purpose of this study is to examine the frequency and intensity of middle and high school choral directors' voices and to compare choral directors' voices with…
Transformational Leadership in a High School Choral Program
Williams, Owen Brian
2014-01-01
The purpose of this study was to examine a high school choral program to discover how the leadership behaviors of the teacher contributed to the success of the program. The teacher's leadership behaviors were examined through the framework of Transformational Leadership. Criteria for the selection of this program included a recent performance at a…
Choral singing in the early years of elementary school
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pavlović Biljana M.
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The paper discusses choral singing as a form of extracurricular activity and teaching in elementary school. It considers the historical development of choral singing in order to highlight the continuity of its existence and importance in society and reviews the importance of choral singing in musical and overall upbringing and education of elementary school students. Authors analyze the curricula of grades I to IV in order to determine how much attention is given to choral singing. Didactic and methodological issues related to the formation of the choir in elementary school are reviewed, together with methodical approach for working with early grades choir, proper selection of the musical compositions and the role of teachers. Listed is the recommended choral literature to supplement the current curricula. Special attention was given to literature containing the Kosovo-Metohija folk songs, suitable for choral arrangement. Performing of these songs in a choral arrangement will contribute to stimulating the interest of students towards musical folklore of Kosovo and Metohija, and therefore its preservation and fostering. It is highlighted that singing in the choir contributes to the development of hearing, voice, harmonic feeling, a sense of rhythm, melody and group play. By mastering different compositions, students become familiar with valuable achievements of artist, spiritual and folk music. The significant meaning and importance of this kind of work is reflected in the possibilities of achieving the tasks of socio-moral education. Choral singing develops a sense of collective responsibility, conscious discipline, perseverance, endurance, helps establish a sense of understanding, mutual respect and tolerance, friendship and a sense of teamwork. Singing in the choir develops aesthetic attitude and taste in music. Students are trained to perceive and to value the true qualities of beauty, grace, harmony and authenticity in music. The value of
Bennett Walling, Catherine
2016-01-01
The purpose of this study was to determine whether secondary choral directors employed at international schools implemented a multicultural education in their programs. Participants (N = 126) were secondary choral directors working at international schools in 59 different countries. A researcher-designed questionnaire was used to collect…
An Ethnographic Case Study of Collaborative Learning in a Higher Education Choral Ensemble
Timbie, Renae
2016-01-01
As a choral director in higher education, I grew increasingly attentive to the role of globalization on society and similarly on higher education. Believing that cultural awareness informs music performance, I examined how choral music education in particular might lead the way in challenging students to see the world in its increasingly…
An Examination of Critical Thinking Skills in High School Choral Rehearsals
Garrett, Matthew L.
2013-01-01
The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between time spent in nonperformance and critical thinking activities in high school choral rehearsals. Eighteen rehearsal observations were collected from public school music programs. Observed rehearsal behaviors were coded into three categories of nonperformance activity: lower-order…
Parker, Elizabeth Cassidy
2014-01-01
The purpose of this grounded theory study was to describe the process of adolescent choral singers' social identity development within three midsized, midwestern high school mixed choirs. Forty-nine interviews were conducted with 36 different participants. Secondary data sources included memoing, observations, and interviews with the choir…
New Orleans on His Mind: A Rhode Island Choral Director Brings Katrina Victims Music--And Hope
Olson, Catherine Applefeld
2009-01-01
Westerly, Rhode Island, is a long way from New Orleans. But the physical distance has not stopped David DeAngelis, choral director at Westerly High School, from providing his students with one heck of a lesson: The opportunity to truly connect with others through music. Under DeAngelis' direction, Westerly's various vocal ensembles have held…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Olga A. Malakhova
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The aim of the study is to investigate emotional and volitional self-regulation of primary school children during musical activities such as a choral performance.Methods. The proposed method of diagnosing emotional and volitional selfregulation in the process of choral activities, and methods of mathematical statistics are applied. Results and scientific novelty. The author formulates the definition of emotional and volitional self-regulation; criteria and indicators for its diagnosis are developed. The main criteria for the development of emotional and volitional selfregulation are: «self-control in the process of hearing musical performance», «emotional performance of a musical work», and «arbitrary regulation of psychophysiological state». The data obtained in the course of diagnosis in the Ural College of Music in vocal and choral activities at primary school children are analyzed. The use of mathematical statistics to summarize the data is justified.Practical significance. The development techniques of emotional and volitional self-regulation of future musicians to choral exercises are described; this technology may be used in music colleges, children’s art schools, as well as the highest level of musical performing and musical-pedagogical education. Research materials can be useful both to psychologists, and experts in the field of music education.
Four-part choral synthesis system for investigating intonation in a cappella choral singing.
Howard, David M; Daffern, Helena; Brereton, Jude
2013-10-01
Accurate tuning is an important aspect of singing in harmony in the context of a choir or vocal ensemble. Tuning and 'pitch drift' are concerning factors in performance for even the most accomplished professional choirs when singing a cappella (unaccompanied). In less experienced choirs tuning often lacks precision, typically because individual singers have not developed appropriate listening skills. In order to investigate accuracy of tuning in ensemble singing situations, a chorally appropriate reference is required against which frequency measurements can be made. Since most basic choral singing involves chords in four parts, a four-part reference template is used in which the fundamental frequencies of the notes in each chord can be accurately set. This template can now be used in experiments where three of the reference parts are tuned in any musical temperament (tuning system), in this case equal and just temperaments, and played over headphones to a singer to allow her/his tuning strategy to be investigated. This paper describes a practical implementation of a four-part choral synthesis system in Pure Data (Pd) and its use in an investigation of tuning of notes by individual singers using an exercise originally written to explore pitch drift in a cappella choral singing.
6. The Interdisciplinary Dimension of the Vocalchoral Culture of the Pupil in the Music School
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Glebov Ana
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Process in the context of the vocal-choral culture of the students of the music school. The concept of interdisciplinary is considered as a symbiosis of two or more academic disciplines in the formation of the vocal-choral culture of pupils in the musical-artistic field. In this case, interdisciplinary occurs in integrating the knowledge, capabilities and aptitudes formed, taking into account significant specific factors. Thus, the interdisciplinary approach is carried out through such disciplines as solfeggio, history of music, instrument, ensemble, but also the integration into the vocal-choral of the method of interiorizing the music through the philosophical, musical and psycho-pedagogical aspects.
A Nationwide Overview of Sight-Singing Requirements of Large-Group Choral Festivals
Norris, Charles E.
2004-01-01
The purpose of this study was to examine sight-singing requirements at junior and senior high school large-group ratings-based choral festivals throughout the United States. Responses to the following questions were sought from each state: (1) Are there ratings-based large-group choral festivals? (2) Is sight-singing a requirement? (3) Are there…
Choral Warm-Ups for Changing Adolescent Voices
Freer, Patirck K.
2009-01-01
During two decades of observing and leading middle school choral rehearsals, the author has observed that teachers frequently repeat exactly the warm-ups they present to their young adolescent choirs at every rehearsal. If teachers know one thing about middle school students, they know that they are constantly changing--physically, intellectually,…
Middle School Drum Ensemble: An Unlikely Experience in Classroom Democracy
Barbre, James
2013-01-01
Though music has a long and successful history within education, it is often one of the first sacrificial lambs when school budgets tighten. Over the course of an academic year, a documentary film sought to tell the story of an American middle school drum ensemble. The context of this group provided an ideal way to examine the nature of student…
The Phantasmagoria of Competition in School Ensembles
Abramo, Joseph Michael
2017-01-01
Participation in competition festivals--where students and ensembles compete against each other for high scores and accolades--is a widespread practice in North American formal music education. In this article, I use Marx's theories of labor, value, and phantasmagoria to suggest a capitalist logic that structures these competitions. Marx's…
Music Objectives for Choral Festivals.
Barresi, Anthony L.
1979-01-01
Five goals are suggested for making a choral festival benefit participants musically: (1) meet the specific musical needs of the students; (2) expose students to a guest conductor; (3) acquaint students with a challenging repertory; (4) develop performance techniques; and (5) introduce teacher-conductors to rehearsal techniques. (Author/SJL)
Predictors of Choral Directors' Voice Handicap
Schwartz, Sandra
2013-01-01
Vocal demands of teaching are considerable and these challenges are greater for choral directors who depend on the voice as a musical and instructive instrument. The purpose of this study was to (1) examine choral directors' vocal condition using a modified Voice Handicap Index (VHI), and (2) determine the extent to which the major variables…
Sharpen Your Edge on Choral Competition.
Morgan, John; Burrows, Bill
1981-01-01
The authors present choral contest/music festival performance tips which they have gleaned from adjudication sheets, judges' notes, and directors' comments. They include ideas on such topics as intonation, musical selections, rehearsal, balance, and staging. (SJL)
Masculinity and Choral Singing: An Australian Perspective
Powell, Sarah J.
2015-01-01
This article focuses on the perceptions of masculinity amongst male participants in choral singing, drawing on data that form part of a larger project where the overarching aim was to explore how these perceptions influenced male participation in choir. Masculinity was considered in terms of the stereotypes associated with being a male singing in…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alla Kozyr
2017-04-01
Full Text Available The article deals with the problem of professional and individual development of Art Institute students. The aim of the article is to disclose the effectiveness of organising future music teachers’ methodological training which causes their professional and individual development. There is an urgent necessity of implementing integrated knowledge system in musical and pedagogical education which requires greater coordination of the disciplines. The article gives a detailed analysis of future music teachers ‘theoretic and methodological training in the course of conducting and choral disciplines that takes place during the whole period of studying at Art Institutes and at Music and Pedagogics Faculties of Pedagogical Universities. The author claims that the course of conducting and choral disciplines helps overcome drawbacks of future teachers’ training to practice. But this course should be combined with vocal and instrumental training, the unity of these components promote to forming performance skills. It is shown that the main task of learning conducting and choral disciplines at Art Institutes and at Music and Pedagogics Faculties of Pedagogical Universities is directing students to the constant acmeological self-development. The basis for this is future teachers’ independent work that is supervised by tutors. Tutors should encourage students to have responsible attitude to the author’s text. The future conductor should have a habit of accurate reading of author’s text which is one of the preconditions of successful performance. In the article much attention is given to getting basic professional skills that involves training the leaders of school choral groups according to the following trends: studying music and theoretical materials thoroughly; mastering conducting techniques; learning vocal and choral technique and methodology of working with the choir. The author concludes that mastering the main professional skills means
Gender and Participation in High School and College Instrumental Jazz Ensembles
McKeage, Kathleen M.
2004-01-01
This study is an examination of the relationship between gender and participation in high school and college instrumental jazz ensembles. Student demographic and attitudinal information was collected using the researcher-designed Instrumental Jazz Participation Survey (IJPS). Undergraduate college band students (N = 628) representing 15 programs…
Sours, James P.
2009-01-01
This study was conducted to examine the effectiveness of embedding character education into the daily functions of instrumental music ensembles at Franklin High School in Portland Oregon. The participants in the study were the students of the researcher which may have been a delimitation. Their ages were from 14 to 19 years. Students from…
Candy Bar Chants, Mozart Maps: Creativity in Your Choral Classroom.
Larson, Laurie
2003-01-01
Focuses on how music teachers can make choral rehearsals more interesting for students by incorporating creative lessons and activities. Explores what it means to be creative and includes examples of creative lessons that can be used in the choral rehearsal. (CMK)
Multicultural Choral Music Pedagogy Based on the Facets Model
Yoo, Hyesoo
2017-01-01
Multicultural choral music has distinct characteristics in that indigenous folk elements are frequently incorporated into a Western European tonal system. Because of this, multicultural choral music is often taught using Western styles (e.g., "bel canto") rather than through traditional singing techniques from their cultures of origin.…
Webb, Jeffrey L.
2007-01-01
Choral conductors can positively affect the voices in their choirs through their instruction. It is their job to teach the choir not only the music, but also the healthy ways of singing it. Promoting vocal health benefits both singers and conductors. For singers, it helps remove the risk factors for vocal fatigue. For the choral conductor,…
Peer Mentoring in a High School Jazz Ensemble
Goodrich, Andrew
2007-01-01
The use of peer mentoring in a successful high school jazz band was explored during one academic year of instruction using ethnographic techniques. Participants included primary informants (student jazz band members, director, assistant director, adult mentors) and secondary informants (guidance counselor, principal, parents, non-jazz band member…
Michigan State Adjudicated Choral Festivals: Revising the Adjudication Process
Stegman, Sandra Frey
2009-01-01
Each year in the United States, thousands of middle school and high school music students and their teachers participate in state or regional solo, ensemble, and large-group vocal activities. Students pursue involvement for various musically extrinsic and intrinsic reasons. Music educators report pressure from parents and administrators as a…
TheoArtistry, and a Contemporary Perspective on Composing Sacred Choral Music
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
George Corbett
2017-12-01
Full Text Available This article presents the methodology and research underpinning the TheoArtistry Composers’ Scheme, a project based in ITIA (the Institute for Theology, Imagination and the Arts, School of Divinity, University of St Andrews (2016–2017. I analyse Sir James MacMillan’s theology of music, outline some practical and theoretical issues that arose in setting up theologian-composer partnerships, and reflect critically on the six new works of sacred choral music that emerged (these are printed as supplementary materials. The article assesses the implications of such collaboration for future work at the interface between theology and music, and between theology and the arts more generally.
World Music Ensemble: Kulintang
Beegle, Amy C.
2012-01-01
As instrumental world music ensembles such as steel pan, mariachi, gamelan and West African drums are becoming more the norm than the exception in North American school music programs, there are other world music ensembles just starting to gain popularity in particular parts of the United States. The kulintang ensemble, a drum and gong ensemble…
BASIC APPROACHES TO THE ORGANIZATION OF PEDAGOGICAL INTERACTION IN SCHOOL VOCAL CHOIRS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anatolii Kuzmenko
2016-04-01
Full Text Available The article reveals the basic approaches to the school music teacher’s creative and educational interaction with vocal and choral group. The significance of singing in the national artistic culture of Ukraine is singled out. Students’ practical work on study singing is generalized, it allows to form a vocal and choral musical education system that recreates the natural child’s sound and provides euphonious cantilena voice sounding and availability of mastering this kind of activity. The author also singles out some components such as orientation (it involves goals, content, tasks, volume of learning information; competence one (it is defined as musical and educational complex which includes the high level of knowledge, skills in sound production and psychological peculiarities of learning children of different ages to sing; communication one (it is the process of teacher and pupils’ interaction with the help of different communication means, sharing learning information and its discussion using different technical tools; executive one ( it provides the level of students’ performance skills and creative interpretation of vocal and choral works. The main attention is paid to proper planning and practices at school music lessons, rehearsals, vocal choirs, ensembles, presentations, concerts. It is proved that efficient using methods of achieving content filling of creative and educational interaction of the conductor with a school choral group is due to defining necessary principles that determine his experience. They include effective mastering choirmaster skills, accurate diagnostics and analysis of information and problem material, that sounds jarringly; paying attention to those imperfections which should be corrected in each case for getting positive results.
The Production of Quality Choral Performance: A Review of Literature
Rolsten, Kathy
2016-01-01
This review of literature is a synthesis of research surrounding the production of superior choral performance. Findings described in this review suggest director characteristics, rehearsal techniques, singer behaviors, and auxiliary supports that are important to, or common in, the creation of meritorious performance. Effects of instructional…
The Performance-Pedagogy Paradox in Choral Music Teaching
Freer, Patrick K.
2011-01-01
Choral music teachers simultaneously work toward two potentially competing goals: the quality of the musical performance and the quality of the education they provide for students. Is either goal preeminent, or can both exist in an ever-shifting balance? This paper highlights how this conundrum has existed since the emergence of North American…
Liberating voices: narrative strategies and style in township choral ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this article the authors argue for the close reading of South African township choral music in order to liberate the voices of a musical genre that has long been one of this country's musical silences. In this regard an analysis of selected compositions by three composers from the Eastern Cape – Tonny Vumazonke, Phillippe ...
"Knowing Their World": Urban Choral Music Educators' Knowledge of Context
Shaw, Julia T.
2015-01-01
The purpose of this collective case study was to explore how successful urban choral educators use contextual knowledge to inform pedagogical practice. With choirs in nine of a large midwestern city's demographically varied residential neighborhoods, a children's choir organization provided a research setting that offered a unique view of urban…
Rijken, Hanna; Hoondert, Martin; Barnard, Marcel
2017-01-01
In this article the appropriation of the Anglican choral evensong in the Netherlands, outside the context of the Anglican church, and more specifically the dress in the choral evensong will be investigated in order to gain more insight into religiosity in the Netherlands. The authors will explore
Classroom Environment as Related to Contest Ratings among High School Performing Ensembles.
Hamann, Donald L.; And Others
1990-01-01
Examines influence of classroom environments, measured by the Classroom Environment Scale, Form R (CESR), on vocal and instrumental ensembles' musical achievement at festival contests. Using random sample, reveals subjects with higher scores on CESR scales of involvement, affiliation, teacher support, and organization received better contest…
Factors associated with singers' perceptions of choral singing well-being.
Kirsh, Elliana R; van Leer, Eva; Phero, Heidi J; Xie, Changchun; Khosla, Sid
2013-11-01
Choral singing is a popular vocational pastime across cultures. The potential health benefits associated with choral singing, including positive effect on well-being, are a topic of interest in health research. However, anecdotal reports from voice professionals suggest that the unique demands of choral singing may enforce unhealthy singing habits. This study explores suboptimal vocal behaviors that are sometimes associated with choral singing, which include singing outside comfortable pitch range, singing too loudly, and singing too softly for blend. The relationships between suboptimal choral singing habits, vocal warm-ups (WUs), vocal fatigue, and singing-related well-being were assessed via a 14-item Likert-based response format questionnaire. Participants consisted of 196 attendees of the international World Choir Games. The final study group consisted of 53 male and 143 female international amateur singers aged 10-70. Results indicated a positive correlation between vocal fatigue and suboptimal singing behaviors (r = 0.34, P singing behavior experienced increased singing-related well-being (r = -0.32, P singing well-being. Substantially, more participants from this demographic preferred choir over solo singing (X²[1, N = 196] = 22.93, P singing behaviors may result in vocal fatigue and reduction of choral singing well-being and should therefore be considered when examining the effect of choral singing on singing-related well-being and health. Future research will compare the amateurs' perceptions of choral singing with perceptions from professional singers and will look at determinants of choral singing well-being. Copyright © 2013 The Voice Foundation. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.
Probability and Style in the Chorales of J. S. Bach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Matthew Woolhouse
2015-12-01
Full Text Available This paper discusses de Clercq’s (2015 contribution to our understanding of the relationship between scale degree and cadence type within Bach chorales from the perspective of style and probability. De Clercq is applauded for the diligence of this research and for attempting to synthesize findings into a practical, working model of benefit to music-theory students and educators. A literal interpretation of a premise underpinning his model—that more common musical events are more indicative of a style—is, however, found to be inconsistent. A test is described in which university students enrolled in a second-level harmony class were presented with pairs of cadences. Cadences were manipulated in various ways, primarily to investigate whether the inclusion of certain figurations would result in a perfect-authentic cadence, the most ubiquitous cadence within Bach chorales, being considered less stylistic than a never-occurring cadence. This proved to be the case, demonstrating the importance of figuration over scale degree and cadence for the accomplishment of style. De Clercq’s model is further discussed with respect to probabilistic models of music and in relation to proscriptive approaches to teaching harmony.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Taras Pukhalskyi
2016-09-01
Full Text Available The article deals with the means of conducting and choral disciplines, which help the efficiency of training of future music teachers. Taking into consideration training and educational components of formation process of professional competence, the means of conducting and choral disciplines are classified as knowledge and skills integration, the organizational and pedagogical skills development, the communicative skills development, the realization of individual approach, the performing skills development, the educational influence and creative self- efficacy. It was established that the effective implementation of these means in the formation of music teachers’ professional competence is possible in close cooperation of choral disciplines (choir disciplines, choral conducting, choral arrangements, choral class and practical work with the choir is organized.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Liang Haiye
2017-04-01
Full Text Available The article is devoted to characterizing features of implementing project technology into future music teachers’ vocal and choral training. The analysis of scientific papers of outstanding scientists in philosophy, psychology, and art education, which deal with modern directions of using project technology, highlight its role in art education process. A methodological base is supported by considering contemporary scientific researches, in particular the theory and methodology of musical studies in accordance with forming students’ independence in the process of solving educational problems by means of project technology; developing principles of students’ professional training optimization on the basis of project activity; innovative development of future music teachers’ professional training that gives to the presented material novelty and presentable appearance. Studying future music teachers’ vocal and choral training as a process of constructing that has a special purpose of improving the quality descriptions of educational vocal and choral collective sound functioning, the author of the article discloses the basic principles of implementing project technology into future music teachers’ vocal and choral training. The author of the article pays the special attention to revealing specific features and maintenance of project technology in vocal and choral training of future leaders of child's art groups. An emphasis is made on the following basic factors that influence development of students’ creative individuality: constructing projects of their own becoming; setting aims, tasks, strategies and facilities of vocal and choral work; directing to the result; independent creative activity; presentation, reflection and correction of a project. On the basis of the obtained data the following principles of project technology are put forward in future music teachers’ vocal and choral training: principle of independence; principle of
Re, Matteo; Valentini, Giorgio
2012-03-01
Ensemble methods are statistical and computational learning procedures reminiscent of the human social learning behavior of seeking several opinions before making any crucial decision. The idea of combining the opinions of different "experts" to obtain an overall “ensemble” decision is rooted in our culture at least from the classical age of ancient Greece, and it has been formalized during the Enlightenment with the Condorcet Jury Theorem[45]), which proved that the judgment of a committee is superior to those of individuals, provided the individuals have reasonable competence. Ensembles are sets of learning machines that combine in some way their decisions, or their learning algorithms, or different views of data, or other specific characteristics to obtain more reliable and more accurate predictions in supervised and unsupervised learning problems [48,116]. A simple example is represented by the majority vote ensemble, by which the decisions of different learning machines are combined, and the class that receives the majority of “votes” (i.e., the class predicted by the majority of the learning machines) is the class predicted by the overall ensemble [158]. In the literature, a plethora of terms other than ensembles has been used, such as fusion, combination, aggregation, and committee, to indicate sets of learning machines that work together to solve a machine learning problem [19,40,56,66,99,108,123], but in this chapter we maintain the term ensemble in its widest meaning, in order to include the whole range of combination methods. Nowadays, ensemble methods represent one of the main current research lines in machine learning [48,116], and the interest of the research community on ensemble methods is witnessed by conferences and workshops specifically devoted to ensembles, first of all the multiple classifier systems (MCS) conference organized by Roli, Kittler, Windeatt, and other researchers of this area [14,62,85,149,173]. Several theories have been
2002-01-01
NYYD Ensemble'i duost Traksmann - Lukk E.-S. Tüüri teosega "Symbiosis", mis on salvestatud ka hiljuti ilmunud NYYD Ensemble'i CDle. 2. märtsil Rakvere Teatri väikeses saalis ja 3. märtsil Rotermanni Soolalaos, kavas Tüür, Kaumann, Berio, Reich, Yun, Hauta-aho, Buckinx
The Effects of Musician's Earplugs on Acoustic and Perceptual Measures of Choral and Solo Sound.
Cook-Cunningham, Sheri L
2017-10-25
The purpose of this investigation was to assess the effects of earplugs on acoustical and perceptual measures of choral and solo sound. The researcher tested the effects of musician's earplugs on choral and solo timbre and singer perceptions. Members of an intact women's university choir recorded Dona Nobis Pacem under two conditions, no earplugs and with earplugs over time. Approximately half of the choir members also participated as soloists, recording Over the Rainbow under the same two conditions. All recordings were analyzed using long-term average spectra (LTAS). After participating in each recording session, the participants responded to a questionnaire about ability to hear self (solo and choral context) and ability to hear others (choral context) under two conditions, no earplugs and with earplugs. LTAS results revealed that wearing earplugs in a choral setting caused decreased mean signal energy (>1 dB), resulting in less resonant singing. LTAS results also indicated that wearing earplugs in a solo setting had less effect on mean signal energy, resulting in a mean difference solo setting. Findings from this study could provide important information when structuring hearing conservation strategies. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Birney, E; Andrews, D; Bevan, P; Caccamo, M; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clarke, L; Coates, G; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Cutts, T; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Fernandez-Suarez, X M; Gane, P; Gibbins, B; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Hotz, H; Iyer, V; Kahari, A; Jekosch, K; Kasprzyk, A; Keefe, D; Keenan, S; Lehvaslaiho, H; McVicker, G; Melsopp, C; Meidl, P; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Potter, S; Proctor, G; Rae, M; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smedley, D; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Storey, R; Ureta-Vidal, A; Woodwark, C; Clamp, M; Hubbard, T
2004-01-01
The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organize biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive and integrated source of annotation of large genome sequences, available via interactive website, web services or flat files. As well as being one of the leading sources of genome annotation, Ensembl is an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements. The facilities of the system range from sequence analysis to data storage and visualization and installations exist around the world both in companies and at academic sites. With a total of nine genome sequences available from Ensembl and more genomes to follow, recent developments have focused mainly on closer integration between genomes and external data.
Aken, Bronwen L.; Achuthan, Premanand; Akanni, Wasiu; Amode, M. Ridwan; Bernsdorff, Friederike; Bhai, Jyothish; Billis, Konstantinos; Carvalho-Silva, Denise; Cummins, Carla; Clapham, Peter; Gil, Laurent; Gir?n, Carlos Garc?a; Gordon, Leo; Hourlier, Thibaut; Hunt, Sarah E.
2016-01-01
Ensembl (www.ensembl.org) is a database and genome browser for enabling research on vertebrate genomes. We import, analyse, curate and integrate a diverse collection of large-scale reference data to create a more comprehensive view of genome biology than would be possible from any individual dataset. Our extensive data resources include evidence-based gene and regulatory region annotation, genome variation and gene trees. An accompanying suite of tools, infrastructure and programmatic access ...
Lu, Xiuyuan; Van Roy, Benjamin
2017-01-01
Thompson sampling has emerged as an effective heuristic for a broad range of online decision problems. In its basic form, the algorithm requires computing and sampling from a posterior distribution over models, which is tractable only for simple special cases. This paper develops ensemble sampling, which aims to approximate Thompson sampling while maintaining tractability even in the face of complex models such as neural networks. Ensemble sampling dramatically expands on the range of applica...
USING OF THE FOLK SOURCE IN THE PROCESS OF CRYSTALLIZATION OF ROMANIAN CHORAL MUSIC
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
MORARU EMILIA
2015-12-01
Full Text Available The Romanian choral music from the second half of the nineteenth century and the beginning of the twentieth century was built on the foundation of folk art, expressed through the monodic popular song, peasant dance and church music. Jn the pages of this article, the author highlights the most representative works of folk inspiration, signed by predecessor composers of Romanian choral music, who, through their creative effort, contributed essentially to the crystallization of the genre of the choral music of this period. Thus, in the author’s objective were the creations of composers Alexandru Flechtenmacher, Eduard Wachmann, Eduard Caudella, Gavriil Musicescu, Gheorghe Dima, Jacob Mureşianu, Ciprian Porumbescu, Jon Vidu and others.
Singing, Sissies, and Sexual Identity: How LGBTQ Choral Directors Negotiate Gender Discourse
McBride, Nicholas R.
2016-01-01
This article explores how choral directors negotiate personal and professional identity in relation to gender discourse. Many music teachers have tried hypermasculine messages, such as "Real men sing," used as recruitment tools for getting adolescent boys to join choir. Designed to counter the perception that "singing is for…
The 'folk-choral concept' of the music of Okechukwu Ndubuisi ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Okechukwu Ndubuisi is a distinguished composer and arranger of vocal music in Nigeria. Even though he was an accomplished pianist, his major contribution in the field of Nigerian art music was in the choral medium. This work therefore examines the composer and his works in order to establish the contributions he has ...
Yinger, Olivia Swedberg
2014-01-01
As people age, they naturally experience sensory, perceptual, and cognitive changes. Many of these changes necessitate adaptations in designing programs for older adults. Choral singing is an activity that has many potential benefits for older adults, yet the rehearsal environment, presentation style, and content of material presented may need to…
Sight-Singing Pedagogy: A Content Analysis of Choral Methods Textbooks
Floyd, Eva G.; Haning, Marshall A.
2015-01-01
The purpose of this study was to examine the sight-singing pedagogy content of choral methods textbooks, with the intent of determining what elements of sight-singing pedagogy are most commonly included in these resources. A content analysis was conducted to analyze information related to sight-singing pedagogy in 10 textbooks that are commonly…
A Comparison of the Basic Song Repertoire of Vocal/Choral and Instrumental Music Education Majors.
Prickett, Carol A.; Bridges, Madeline S.
2000-01-01
Explores whether the basic song repertoire of vocal/choral music education majors is significantly better than instrumental music education majors. Participants attempted to identify 25 standard songs. Reveals no significant difference between the two groups, indicating that neither had developed a strong repertoire of songs. (CMK)
Kalinowski, Joseph; Saltuklaroglu, Tim
2003-04-01
'Choral speech', 'unison speech', or 'imitation speech' has long been known to immediately induce reflexive, spontaneous, and natural sounding fluency, even the most severe cases of stuttering. Unlike typical post-therapeutic speech, a hallmark characteristic of choral speech is the sense of 'invulnerability' to stuttering, regardless of phonetic context, situational environment, or audience size. We suggest that choral speech immediately inhibits stuttering by engaging mirror systems of neurons, innate primitive neuronal substrates that dominate the initial phases of language development due to their predisposition to reflexively imitate gestural action sequences in a fluent manner. Since mirror systems are primordial in nature, they take precedence over the much later developing stuttering pathology. We suggest that stuttering may best be ameliorated by reengaging mirror neurons via choral speech or one of its derivatives (using digital signal processing technology) to provide gestural mirrors, that are nature's way of immediately overriding the central stuttering block. Copyright 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd.
Fogg-Rogers, Laura; Buetow, Stephen; Talmage, Alison; McCann, Clare M; Leão, Sylvia H S; Tippett, Lynette; Leung, Joan; McPherson, Kathryn M; Purdy, Suzanne C
2016-01-01
People with stroke or Parkinson's disease (PD) live with reduced mood, social participation and quality of life (QOL). Communication difficulties affect 90% of people with PD (dysarthria) and over 33% of people with stroke (aphasia). These consequences are disabling in many ways. However, as singing is typically still possible, its therapeutic use is of increasing interest. This article explores the experiences of and factors influencing participation in choral singing therapy (CST) by people with stroke or PD and their significant others. Participants (eight people with stroke, six with PD) were recruited from a community music therapy choir running CST. Significant others (seven for stroke, two for PD) were also recruited. Supported communication methods were used as needed to undertake semi-structured interviews (total N = 23). Thematic analysis indicated participants had many unmet needs associated with their condition, which motivated them to explore self-management options. CST participation was described as an enjoyable social activity, and participation was perceived as improving mood, language, breathing and voice. Choral singing was perceived by people with stroke and PD to help them self-manage some of the consequences of their condition, including social isolation, low mood and communication difficulties. Choral singing therapy (CST) is sought out by people with stroke and PD to help self-manage symptoms of their condition. Participation is perceived as an enjoyable activity which improves mood, voice and language symptoms. CST may enable access to specialist music therapy and speech language therapy protocols within community frameworks.
INFLUENCE OF CHORAL SINGING ON PSYCHO-EMOTIONAL STATE OF SINGERS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
I V Grigoriev
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Previously we have described certain correlation between the protein composition of mixed saliva (PCMS and human psycho-emotional state (PES. In this investigation, the analysis of PCMS was used to study the change of PES in the group in the process of creative activities, i.e. choral singing. During the experiment, three groups of singers performed different parts of songs in the course of their regular sessions. The saliva for the analysis was collected from the singers just before and after the choral singing. The results led to the following conclusions. The vast number of singers showed evidence of healthy mental state. During the experiment, in each of the three creative teams there was a relatively harmonious PES of the participants. Collective singing strengthened the positive PES of the most singers. In particular, after singing in the choir a few people were found to have changed their PES from depressive to normal. Also, the processing of the collected data showed that the analysis of the PCMS characteristics allows evaluating not only the direction of the PES change against the background of the creative process, but also the depth of the emotional experience. In conclusion, the results of the research provide an objective basis for the confirmation of the beneficial effects of choral singing on the psyche of the singers.
Popular Music and the Instrumental Ensemble.
Boespflug, George
1999-01-01
Discusses popular music, the role of the musical performer as a creator, and the styles of jazz and popular music. Describes the pop ensemble at the college level, focusing on improvisation, rehearsals, recording, and performance. Argues that pop ensembles be used in junior and senior high school. (CMK)
Berndt, William; Berndt, Arnold
This catalogue lists over 350 phonograph records which feature solo and ensemble music by wind and percussion instruments. Instruments heard on the records include oboe/English horn, flute, clarinet, bassoon, trumpet/cornet, French horn, trombone, baritone, tuba, saxophone, percussion, woodwind ensembles, and brass ensembles. The catalogue is…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Francisco Rodríguez Adrados
2012-06-01
Full Text Available Regarding the subject of the origin of Greek theatre, especially of tragedy, the author insists in defending the theory already published by him in several occasions, according to which it would have been originated in choral, religious dances, which represent myths by means of an old mimesis. Aristotle suggested choral lyric as its origin, but he did it in a superficial manner. The author develops his theory in detail and speaks of the necessity of using information found in Greek theatre plays themselves: lyric unities and their organization as theatre plays, adding the recitation of the choreutae to choral passages. He proves all this with parallel facts found in Indian theatre by Prof. Gupt, from New Delhi, as well as with the correlation that the author sets between these evidences and the Greek ones: mimetic dance, rite and myth.
Waldorf Schools: Seventy-Six Years of Early Language Learning.
Navascues, Michael
1997-01-01
Describes the history, curriculum, and methodology of elementary school foreign-language (FL) learning within Waldorf schools, using information from Waldorf FL teachers, class observations, and research readings. Waldorf students study two FLs. An oral/choral method is used in the early years. Reading, writing, and formal grammar are introduced…
Saltuklaroglu, Tim; Kalinowski, Joseph; Robbins, Mary; Crawcour, Stephen; Bowers, Andrew
2009-01-01
Background: Stuttering is prone to strike during speech initiation more so than at any other point in an utterance. The use of auditory feedback (AAF) has been found to produce robust decreases in the stuttering frequency by creating an electronic rendition of choral speech (i.e., speaking in unison). However, AAF requires users to self-initiate…
A Pilot Study of Using Jazz Warm Up Exercises in Primary School Choir in Hong Kong
Chen, Jason Chi Wai; Lee, Han Wai
2013-01-01
This pilot study is to examine whether it is valuable to implement jazz choral practice in Hong Kong primary school setting. The findings can serve as a reference to explore the possibilities of promoting jazz education in Asian countries or in China. The participants were 70 public primary school students from grade 2 to 5 in Hong Kong. All…
Howard, Sandra A.
2012-01-01
The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of differentiated performance attire and stage deportment on adjudicators' ratings of high school solo vocal performances. High school choral students (n = 153) and undergraduate (n = 97) and graduate music majors (n = 32) served as adjudicators (N = 282). Adjudicators rated recorded solo vocal…
Literary context of interwar Serbian choral music composed to verses of artistic poetry
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tasić Nataša D.
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Choral music in Serbia between two world wars developed simultaneously in the genre fields of spiritual and folklore music, and music written to the verse of artistic poetry. Literary context of the latter genre mostly involved poetry from the period of romanticism. Apart from that, certain authors gladly wrote music to the lyric poetry of their contemporaries, and there are also examples in which composers reached out to the poetry from distant past. This paper deals with the analysis of representation of verses of certain poets in the work of musical artists. The reasons for the domination of certain thematic fields and influence of stylistic orientation of lyricists to composer's choices are some of the most significant conclusions of this text.
Cook-Cunningham, Sheri L; Grady, Melissa L
2018-03-01
The purpose of this investigation was to assess the effects of three warm-up procedures (vocal-only, physical-only, physical/vocal combination) on acoustic and perceptual measures of choir sound. The researchers tested three videotaped, 5-minute, choral warm-up procedures on three university choirs. After participating in a warm-up procedure, each choir was recorded singing a folk song for long-term average spectra and pitch analysis. Singer participants responded to a questionnaire about preferences after each warm-up procedure. Warm-up procedures and recording sessions occurred during each choir's regular rehearsal time and in each choir's regular rehearsal space during three consecutive rehearsals. Long-term average spectra results demonstrated more resonant singing after the physical/vocal warm-up for two of the three choirs. Pitch analysis results indicate that all three choirs sang "in-tune" or with the least pitch deviation after participating in the physical/vocal warm-up. Singer questionnaire responses showed general preference for the physical/vocal combination warm-up, and singer ranking of the three procedures indicated the physical/vocal warm-up as the most favored for readiness to sing. In the context of this study with these three university choir participants, it seems that a combination choral warm-up that includes physical and vocal aspects is preferred by singers, enables more resonant singing, and more in-tune singing. Findings from this study could provide teachers and choral directors with important information as they structure and experiment with their choral warm-up procedures. Copyright © 2018 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
MORARU EMILIA
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Th is article is dedicated to identifying ways of development of Romanian choral music from the fi rst half of the twentieth century. In this regard, the author highlights the composition directions of this period, representative composers, the genre and thematic spectrum, and the ways of capitalizing authentic folk music. Th us, the author’s aim is to underline the achievements of composers, such as Dumitru G. Kiriac, Gheorghe Cucu (who cultivated the choral genre in miniature forms and of composers Ioan D. Chirescu, Dimitrie Cuclin, Sabin Drăgoi, Mihail Jora, Paul Constantinescu, Marţian Negrea (who conceived a varied choral creation by using modern harmonic methods: polyrhythm, colour modes, harmonization based on seconds, stacked fourths. Although strongly infl uenced by artistic currents „in vogue” of universal music, the Romanian composers of this period got more and more affi liated to those followers who created „in the style” or „in popular character”
Multilevel ensemble Kalman filter
Chernov, Alexey; Hoel, Haakon; Law, Kody; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul
2016-01-01
This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In terms of computational cost vs. approximation error the asymptotic performance of the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) is superior to the EnKF s.
Bianconi, Ginestra
2009-03-01
In this paper we generalize the concept of random networks to describe network ensembles with nontrivial features by a statistical mechanics approach. This framework is able to describe undirected and directed network ensembles as well as weighted network ensembles. These networks might have nontrivial community structure or, in the case of networks embedded in a given space, they might have a link probability with a nontrivial dependence on the distance between the nodes. These ensembles are characterized by their entropy, which evaluates the cardinality of networks in the ensemble. In particular, in this paper we define and evaluate the structural entropy, i.e., the entropy of the ensembles of undirected uncorrelated simple networks with given degree sequence. We stress the apparent paradox that scale-free degree distributions are characterized by having small structural entropy while they are so widely encountered in natural, social, and technological complex systems. We propose a solution to the paradox by proving that scale-free degree distributions are the most likely degree distribution with the corresponding value of the structural entropy. Finally, the general framework we present in this paper is able to describe microcanonical ensembles of networks as well as canonical or hidden-variable network ensembles with significant implications for the formulation of network-constructing algorithms.
Multilevel ensemble Kalman filter
Chernov, Alexey
2016-01-06
This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In terms of computational cost vs. approximation error the asymptotic performance of the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) is superior to the EnKF s.
The Ensembl REST API: Ensembl Data for Any Language.
Yates, Andrew; Beal, Kathryn; Keenan, Stephen; McLaren, William; Pignatelli, Miguel; Ritchie, Graham R S; Ruffier, Magali; Taylor, Kieron; Vullo, Alessandro; Flicek, Paul
2015-01-01
We present a Web service to access Ensembl data using Representational State Transfer (REST). The Ensembl REST server enables the easy retrieval of a wide range of Ensembl data by most programming languages, using standard formats such as JSON and FASTA while minimizing client work. We also introduce bindings to the popular Ensembl Variant Effect Predictor tool permitting large-scale programmatic variant analysis independent of any specific programming language. The Ensembl REST API can be accessed at http://rest.ensembl.org and source code is freely available under an Apache 2.0 license from http://github.com/Ensembl/ensembl-rest. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press.
Musical ensembles in Ancient Mesapotamia
Krispijn, T.J.H.; Dumbrill, R.; Finkel, I.
2010-01-01
Identification of musical instruments from ancient Mesopotamia by comparing musical ensembles attested in Sumerian and Akkadian texts with depicted ensembles. Lexicographical contributions to the Sumerian and Akkadian lexicon.
Oza, Nikunj C.
2004-01-01
Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve better prediction accuracy than any of the individual models could on their own. The basic goal when designing an ensemble is the same as when establishing a committee of people: each member of the committee should be as competent as possible, but the members should be complementary to one another. If the members are not complementary, Le., if they always agree, then the committee is unnecessary---any one member is sufficient. If the members are complementary, then when one or a few members make an error, the probability is high that the remaining members can correct this error. Research in ensemble methods has largely revolved around designing ensembles consisting of competent yet complementary models.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marin-Garcia Pablo
2010-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The maturing field of genomics is rapidly increasing the number of sequenced genomes and producing more information from those previously sequenced. Much of this additional information is variation data derived from sampling multiple individuals of a given species with the goal of discovering new variants and characterising the population frequencies of the variants that are already known. These data have immense value for many studies, including those designed to understand evolution and connect genotype to phenotype. Maximising the utility of the data requires that it be stored in an accessible manner that facilitates the integration of variation data with other genome resources such as gene annotation and comparative genomics. Description The Ensembl project provides comprehensive and integrated variation resources for a wide variety of chordate genomes. This paper provides a detailed description of the sources of data and the methods for creating the Ensembl variation databases. It also explores the utility of the information by explaining the range of query options available, from using interactive web displays, to online data mining tools and connecting directly to the data servers programmatically. It gives a good overview of the variation resources and future plans for expanding the variation data within Ensembl. Conclusions Variation data is an important key to understanding the functional and phenotypic differences between individuals. The development of new sequencing and genotyping technologies is greatly increasing the amount of variation data known for almost all genomes. The Ensembl variation resources are integrated into the Ensembl genome browser and provide a comprehensive way to access this data in the context of a widely used genome bioinformatics system. All Ensembl data is freely available at http://www.ensembl.org and from the public MySQL database server at ensembldb.ensembl.org.
Kramer, John R.
2012-01-01
Classical guitar ensembles are increasing in the United States as popular alternatives to band, choir, and orchestra. Classical guitar ensembles are offered at many middle and high schools as fine arts electives as one of the only options for classical guitarists to participate in ensembles. The purpose of this study was to explore the development…
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parfionov, George; Zapatrin, Roman
2006-01-01
We compare different strategies aimed to prepare an ensemble with a given density matrix ρ. Preparing the ensemble of eigenstates of ρ with appropriate probabilities can be treated as 'generous' strategy: it provides maximal accessible information about the state. Another extremity is the so-called 'Scrooge' ensemble, which is mostly stingy in sharing the information. We introduce 'lazy' ensembles which require minimal effort to prepare the density matrix by selecting pure states with respect to completely random choice. We consider two parties, Alice and Bob, playing a kind of game. Bob wishes to guess which pure state is prepared by Alice. His null hypothesis, based on the lack of any information about Alice's intention, is that Alice prepares any pure state with equal probability. Then, the average quantum state measured by Bob turns out to be ρ, and he has to make a new hypothesis about Alice's intention solely based on the information that the observed density matrix is ρ. The arising 'lazy' ensemble is shown to be the alternative hypothesis which minimizes type I error
The semantic similarity ensemble
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrea Ballatore
2013-12-01
Full Text Available Computational measures of semantic similarity between geographic terms provide valuable support across geographic information retrieval, data mining, and information integration. To date, a wide variety of approaches to geo-semantic similarity have been devised. A judgment of similarity is not intrinsically right or wrong, but obtains a certain degree of cognitive plausibility, depending on how closely it mimics human behavior. Thus selecting the most appropriate measure for a specific task is a significant challenge. To address this issue, we make an analogy between computational similarity measures and soliciting domain expert opinions, which incorporate a subjective set of beliefs, perceptions, hypotheses, and epistemic biases. Following this analogy, we define the semantic similarity ensemble (SSE as a composition of different similarity measures, acting as a panel of experts having to reach a decision on the semantic similarity of a set of geographic terms. The approach is evaluated in comparison to human judgments, and results indicate that an SSE performs better than the average of its parts. Although the best member tends to outperform the ensemble, all ensembles outperform the average performance of each ensemble's member. Hence, in contexts where the best measure is unknown, the ensemble provides a more cognitively plausible approach.
Varvarigou, Maria
2016-01-01
This article explores cooperative learning in choral conducting education. The five characteristics of cooperative learning identified by Adams and Hamm ((1996). "Cooperative learning: Critical thinking and collaboration across the curriculum" (2nd ed.). Springfield, IL: Charles Thomas Publishers): positive interdependence; face-to-face…
Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering
Hoel, Haakon
2016-01-08
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a sequential filtering method that uses an ensemble of particle paths to estimate the means and covariances required by the Kalman filter by the use of sample moments, i.e., the Monte Carlo method. EnKF is often both robust and efficient, but its performance may suffer in settings where the computational cost of accurate simulations of particles is high. The multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) is an extension of classical Monte Carlo methods which by sampling stochastic realizations on a hierarchy of resolutions may reduce the computational cost of moment approximations by orders of magnitude. In this work we have combined the ideas of MLMC and EnKF to construct the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) for the setting of finite dimensional state and observation spaces. The main ideas of this method is to compute particle paths on a hierarchy of resolutions and to apply multilevel estimators on the ensemble hierarchy of particles to compute Kalman filter means and covariances. Theoretical results and a numerical study of the performance gains of MLEnKF over EnKF will be presented. Some ideas on the extension of MLEnKF to settings with infinite dimensional state spaces will also be presented.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Lars Kai; Salamon, Peter
1990-01-01
We propose several means for improving the performance an training of neural networks for classification. We use crossvalidation as a tool for optimizing network parameters and architecture. We show further that the remaining generalization error can be reduced by invoking ensembles of similar...... networks....
Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering
Hoel, Haakon; Chernov, Alexey; Law, Kody; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul
2016-01-01
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a sequential filtering method that uses an ensemble of particle paths to estimate the means and covariances required by the Kalman filter by the use of sample moments, i.e., the Monte Carlo method. EnKF is often both robust and efficient, but its performance may suffer in settings where the computational cost of accurate simulations of particles is high. The multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) is an extension of classical Monte Carlo methods which by sampling stochastic realizations on a hierarchy of resolutions may reduce the computational cost of moment approximations by orders of magnitude. In this work we have combined the ideas of MLMC and EnKF to construct the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) for the setting of finite dimensional state and observation spaces. The main ideas of this method is to compute particle paths on a hierarchy of resolutions and to apply multilevel estimators on the ensemble hierarchy of particles to compute Kalman filter means and covariances. Theoretical results and a numerical study of the performance gains of MLEnKF over EnKF will be presented. Some ideas on the extension of MLEnKF to settings with infinite dimensional state spaces will also be presented.
Olson, Catherine Applefeld
2009-01-01
Tim Black, choral director at the Department of Defense's Kadena High School in Okinawa, Japan, might just be the closest thing to a new-millennium embodiment of that early '70s idealism. Not only does Black lead three choirs and teach advanced placement music theory to children of those serving in the U.S. armed forces, but he also is…
Chetverikov, Andrey; Campana, Gianluca; Kristjánsson, Árni
2017-10-01
Colors are rarely uniform, yet little is known about how people represent color distributions. We introduce a new method for studying color ensembles based on intertrial learning in visual search. Participants looked for an oddly colored diamond among diamonds with colors taken from either uniform or Gaussian color distributions. On test trials, the targets had various distances in feature space from the mean of the preceding distractor color distribution. Targets on test trials therefore served as probes into probabilistic representations of distractor colors. Test-trial response times revealed a striking similarity between the physical distribution of colors and their internal representations. The results demonstrate that the visual system represents color ensembles in a more detailed way than previously thought, coding not only mean and variance but, most surprisingly, the actual shape (uniform or Gaussian) of the distribution of colors in the environment.
Tailored Random Graph Ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Roberts, E S; Annibale, A; Coolen, A C C
2013-01-01
Tailored graph ensembles are a developing bridge between biological networks and statistical mechanics. The aim is to use this concept to generate a suite of rigorous tools that can be used to quantify and compare the topology of cellular signalling networks, such as protein-protein interaction networks and gene regulation networks. We calculate exact and explicit formulae for the leading orders in the system size of the Shannon entropies of random graph ensembles constrained with degree distribution and degree-degree correlation. We also construct an ergodic detailed balance Markov chain with non-trivial acceptance probabilities which converges to a strictly uniform measure and is based on edge swaps that conserve all degrees. The acceptance probabilities can be generalized to define Markov chains that target any alternative desired measure on the space of directed or undirected graphs, in order to generate graphs with more sophisticated topological features.
Imprinting and recalling cortical ensembles.
Carrillo-Reid, Luis; Yang, Weijian; Bando, Yuki; Peterka, Darcy S; Yuste, Rafael
2016-08-12
Neuronal ensembles are coactive groups of neurons that may represent building blocks of cortical circuits. These ensembles could be formed by Hebbian plasticity, whereby synapses between coactive neurons are strengthened. Here we report that repetitive activation with two-photon optogenetics of neuronal populations from ensembles in the visual cortex of awake mice builds neuronal ensembles that recur spontaneously after being imprinted and do not disrupt preexisting ones. Moreover, imprinted ensembles can be recalled by single- cell stimulation and remain coactive on consecutive days. Our results demonstrate the persistent reconfiguration of cortical circuits by two-photon optogenetics into neuronal ensembles that can perform pattern completion. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Hinkle, Jonathan R.
2011-01-01
During the past 60 years, jazz music has slowly become recognized as a genre worthy of study in high school music programs throughout the United States. Only a few researchers have analyzed large samples of jazz-related instruction in instrumental music programs, and of these studies no data were collected to investigate the inclusion of jazz in…
Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering
Hoel, Hakon
2016-06-14
This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in the setting of finite dimensional signal evolution and noisy discrete-time observations. The signal dynamics is assumed to be governed by a stochastic differential equation (SDE), and a hierarchy of time grids is introduced for multilevel numerical integration of that SDE. The resulting multilevel EnKF is proved to asymptotically outperform EnKF in terms of computational cost versus approximation accuracy. The theoretical results are illustrated numerically.
Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering
Hoel, Hakon; Law, Kody J. H.; Tempone, Raul
2016-01-01
This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in the setting of finite dimensional signal evolution and noisy discrete-time observations. The signal dynamics is assumed to be governed by a stochastic differential equation (SDE), and a hierarchy of time grids is introduced for multilevel numerical integration of that SDE. The resulting multilevel EnKF is proved to asymptotically outperform EnKF in terms of computational cost versus approximation accuracy. The theoretical results are illustrated numerically.
Berndt, Arnold, Comp.
This catalogue lists phonograph records which feature solo and ensemble music by wind and percussion instruments. It supplements the "1978 Catalogue of Wind and Percussion Solos and Ensembles" (ED 171 614). Instruments played on the records include oboe/English horn, flute, clarinet, bassoon, saxophone, trumpet/cornet, French horn, woodwind…
Diversity in random subspacing ensembles
Tsymbal, A.; Pechenizkiy, M.; Cunningham, P.; Kambayashi, Y.; Mohania, M.K.; Wöß, W.
2004-01-01
Ensembles of learnt models constitute one of the main current directions in machine learning and data mining. It was shown experimentally and theoretically that in order for an ensemble to be effective, it should consist of classifiers having diversity in their predictions. A number of ways are
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
2004-01-01
Within the framework of the PSO-Ensemble project (FU2101) a demo application has been created. The application use ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Two instances of the application are running; one for Nysted Offshore and one for the total production (except Horns Rev) in the Eltra area. The output...
New concept of statistical ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gorenstein, M.I.
2009-01-01
An extension of the standard concept of the statistical ensembles is suggested. Namely, the statistical ensembles with extensive quantities fluctuating according to an externally given distribution is introduced. Applications in the statistical models of multiple hadron production in high energy physics are discussed.
Ensembl 2002: accommodating comparative genomics.
Clamp, M; Andrews, D; Barker, D; Bevan, P; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clark, L; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Hubbard, T; Kasprzyk, A; Keefe, D; Lehvaslaiho, H; Iyer, V; Melsopp, C; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Potter, S; Rust, A; Schmidt, E; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Stupka, E; Ureta-Vidal, A; Vastrik, I; Birney, E
2003-01-01
The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organise biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive source of stable automatic annotation of human, mouse and other genome sequences, available as either an interactive web site or as flat files. Ensembl also integrates manually annotated gene structures from external sources where available. As well as being one of the leading sources of genome annotation, Ensembl is an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements. These range from sequence analysis to data storage and visualisation and installations exist around the world in both companies and at academic sites. With both human and mouse genome sequences available and more vertebrate sequences to follow, many of the recent developments in Ensembl have focusing on developing automatic comparative genome analysis and visualisation.
On Ensemble Nonlinear Kalman Filtering with Symmetric Analysis Ensembles
Luo, Xiaodong
2010-09-19
The ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) [1, 2, 3, 4] is a popular method for data assimilation in high dimensional systems (e.g., geophysics models). Essentially the EnSRF is a Monte Carlo implementation of the conventional Kalman filter (KF) [5, 6]. It is mainly different from the KF at the prediction steps, where it is some ensembles, rather then the means and covariance matrices, of the system state that are propagated forward. In doing this, the EnSRF is computationally more efficient than the KF, since propagating a covariance matrix forward in high dimensional systems is prohibitively expensive. In addition, the EnSRF is also very convenient in implementation. By propagating the ensembles of the system state, the EnSRF can be directly applied to nonlinear systems without any change in comparison to the assimilation procedures in linear systems. However, by adopting the Monte Carlo method, the EnSRF also incurs certain sampling errors. One way to alleviate this problem is to introduce certain symmetry to the ensembles, which can reduce the sampling errors and spurious modes in evaluation of the means and covariances of the ensembles [7]. In this contribution, we present two methods to produce symmetric ensembles. One is based on the unscented transform [8, 9], which leads to the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) [8, 9] and its variant, the ensemble unscented Kalman filter (EnUKF) [7]. The other is based on Stirling’s interpolation formula (SIF), which results in the divided difference filter (DDF) [10]. Here we propose a simplified divided difference filter (sDDF) in the context of ensemble filtering. The similarity and difference between the sDDF and the EnUKF will be discussed. Numerical experiments will also be conducted to investigate the performance of the sDDF and the EnUKF, and compare them to a well‐established EnSRF, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) [2].
Healy, Daniel J.
2014-01-01
The jazz ensemble represents an important performance opportunity in many school music programs. Due to the cultural history of jazz as an improvisatory art form, school jazz ensemble directors must address methods of teaching improvisation concepts to young students. Progress has been made in the field of prescribed improvisation activities and…
The National Solo and Ensemble Contest 1929-1937
Meyers, Brian D.
2012-01-01
This study is the first investigation of the nine-year history of the National Solo and Ensemble Contests, held in the United States in conjunction with the National School Band and Orchestra Contests of the late 1920s and early to mid-1930s. Primary sources used include letters from those involved with the planning of the contests, meeting…
Contact planarization of ensemble nanowires
Chia, A. C. E.; LaPierre, R. R.
2011-06-01
The viability of four organic polymers (S1808, SC200, SU8 and Cyclotene) as filling materials to achieve planarization of ensemble nanowire arrays is reported. Analysis of the porosity, surface roughness and thermal stability of each filling material was performed. Sonication was used as an effective method to remove the tops of the nanowires (NWs) to achieve complete planarization. Ensemble nanowire devices were fully fabricated and I-V measurements confirmed that Cyclotene effectively planarizes the NWs while still serving the role as an insulating layer between the top and bottom contacts. These processes and analysis can be easily implemented into future characterization and fabrication of ensemble NWs for optoelectronic device applications.
On Ensemble Nonlinear Kalman Filtering with Symmetric Analysis Ensembles
Luo, Xiaodong; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Moroz, Irene M.
2010-01-01
However, by adopting the Monte Carlo method, the EnSRF also incurs certain sampling errors. One way to alleviate this problem is to introduce certain symmetry to the ensembles, which can reduce the sampling errors and spurious modes in evaluation of the means and covariances of the ensembles [7]. In this contribution, we present two methods to produce symmetric ensembles. One is based on the unscented transform [8, 9], which leads to the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) [8, 9] and its variant, the ensemble unscented Kalman filter (EnUKF) [7]. The other is based on Stirling’s interpolation formula (SIF), which results in the divided difference filter (DDF) [10]. Here we propose a simplified divided difference filter (sDDF) in the context of ensemble filtering. The similarity and difference between the sDDF and the EnUKF will be discussed. Numerical experiments will also be conducted to investigate the performance of the sDDF and the EnUKF, and compare them to a well‐established EnSRF, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) [2].
Ensemble manifold regularization.
Geng, Bo; Tao, Dacheng; Xu, Chao; Yang, Linjun; Hua, Xian-Sheng
2012-06-01
We propose an automatic approximation of the intrinsic manifold for general semi-supervised learning (SSL) problems. Unfortunately, it is not trivial to define an optimization function to obtain optimal hyperparameters. Usually, cross validation is applied, but it does not necessarily scale up. Other problems derive from the suboptimality incurred by discrete grid search and the overfitting. Therefore, we develop an ensemble manifold regularization (EMR) framework to approximate the intrinsic manifold by combining several initial guesses. Algorithmically, we designed EMR carefully so it 1) learns both the composite manifold and the semi-supervised learner jointly, 2) is fully automatic for learning the intrinsic manifold hyperparameters implicitly, 3) is conditionally optimal for intrinsic manifold approximation under a mild and reasonable assumption, and 4) is scalable for a large number of candidate manifold hyperparameters, from both time and space perspectives. Furthermore, we prove the convergence property of EMR to the deterministic matrix at rate root-n. Extensive experiments over both synthetic and real data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.
The Ensembl genome database project.
Hubbard, T; Barker, D; Birney, E; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clark, L; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Huminiecki, L; Kasprzyk, A; Lehvaslaiho, H; Lijnzaad, P; Melsopp, C; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Pocock, M; Potter, S; Rust, A; Schmidt, E; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Stupka, E; Ureta-Vidal, A; Vastrik, I; Clamp, M
2002-01-01
The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organise biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive source of stable automatic annotation of the human genome sequence, with confirmed gene predictions that have been integrated with external data sources, and is available as either an interactive web site or as flat files. It is also an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements from sequence analysis to data storage and visualisation. The Ensembl site is one of the leading sources of human genome sequence annotation and provided much of the analysis for publication by the international human genome project of the draft genome. The Ensembl system is being installed around the world in both companies and academic sites on machines ranging from supercomputers to laptops.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jennifer Kerr Budziak
2017-12-01
Full Text Available After more than a century of neglect of the form, over thirty major concert works with “Passion” within the title have emerged into the choral landscape during the past 50 years. These settings use diverse libretti, drawing from sources both sacred and secular; some of the composers of these works profess Christianity, some adhere to other religious traditions, and some do not profess any particular faith at all. Their only common threads seem to be their self-identification with the title of “Passion”, and their depiction of a story in which a particular individual undergoes suffering and death. The purpose of this article is not to analyze specific Passion settings but rather to explore the structural form and content of the Passion genre as a whole, and begin to develop an interdisciplinary framework for future analysis of this body of music, using the tools offered by the field of liminal studies. Additionally, this essay will explore how the concept of Postmodernism, both as it manifests both in Western culture and through that culture’s artistic and musical expression, might give some insight into the Passion form’s resurgence into modern musical thought.
The canonical ensemble redefined - 1: Formalism
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Venkataraman, R.
1984-12-01
For studying the thermodynamic properties of systems we propose an ensemble that lies in between the familiar canonical and microcanonical ensembles. We point out the transition from the canonical to microcanonical ensemble and prove from a comparative study that all these ensembles do not yield the same results even in the thermodynamic limit. An investigation of the coupling between two or more systems with these ensembles suggests that the state of thermodynamical equilibrium is a special case of statistical equilibrium. (author)
Bullying Victimization among Music Ensemble and Theatre Students in the United States
Elpus, Kenneth; Carter, Bruce Allen
2016-01-01
The purpose of this study was to analyze the prevalence of reported school victimization through physical, verbal, social/relational, and cyberbullying aggression among music ensemble and theatre students in the middle and high schools of the United States as compared to their peers involved in other school-based activities. We analyzed nationally…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gotzon Ibarretxe Txakartegi
2007-12-01
Full Text Available Responsables de educación y cultura de diferentes países europeos han alertado sobre la falta de nuevas voces y el peligro de continuidad de las agrupaciones corales existentes. No obstante, algunas instituciones corales están llevando a cabo una intensa labor de cantera, avalados por su trayectoria y prestigio históricos, así como por la organización e infraestructuras de calidad de que disponen. Así ocurre con determinados coros y orfeones vascos, que atraen a un número considerable de voces infantiles y juveniles, y con ello consiguen garantizar de algún modo el relevo generacional. En concreto, esta investigación ha estudiado los coros infantiles pertenecientes a cuatro instituciones corales (Orfeón Donostiarra, Coral Andra Mari, Sociedad Coral de Bilbao y Asociación Musical Luis Dorao, para ahondar en las claves que explican el éxito de su funcionamiento: los recursos humanos, técnicos y didácticos que utilizan en su trabajo cotidiano. A través de entrevistas semiestructuradas se ha examinado el punto de vista de los propios protagonistas (los niños y jóvenes coralistas, y los directores y responsables de dichas entidades, acerca del tipo de relaciones que esos coros mantienen con los diferentes entornos de educación formal y no formal.Those responsible for education and culture in several European countries have passed the alarm on the lack of new voices and the danger of extinction of existing choral groups. Nevertheless, some choral institutions are carrying out intense quarry labour, supported by their tradition and historical prestige as well as by the quality organization and infrastructures that are available to them. This happens with some Basque choirs and choral societies which attract a great number of infantile and juvenile voices, thus guaranteeing somehow that there will be a new generation of voices. Specifically, this research work studied the infantile choirs belonging to four choral organisations (Orfe
Quantum ensembles of quantum classifiers.
Schuld, Maria; Petruccione, Francesco
2018-02-09
Quantum machine learning witnesses an increasing amount of quantum algorithms for data-driven decision making, a problem with potential applications ranging from automated image recognition to medical diagnosis. Many of those algorithms are implementations of quantum classifiers, or models for the classification of data inputs with a quantum computer. Following the success of collective decision making with ensembles in classical machine learning, this paper introduces the concept of quantum ensembles of quantum classifiers. Creating the ensemble corresponds to a state preparation routine, after which the quantum classifiers are evaluated in parallel and their combined decision is accessed by a single-qubit measurement. This framework naturally allows for exponentially large ensembles in which - similar to Bayesian learning - the individual classifiers do not have to be trained. As an example, we analyse an exponentially large quantum ensemble in which each classifier is weighed according to its performance in classifying the training data, leading to new results for quantum as well as classical machine learning.
Ensemble forecasting of species distributions.
Araújo, Miguel B; New, Mark
2007-01-01
Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.
Ensemble method for dengue prediction.
Buczak, Anna L; Baugher, Benjamin; Moniz, Linda J; Bagley, Thomas; Babin, Steven M; Guven, Erhan
2018-01-01
In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico) during four dengue seasons: 1) peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2) peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred); and 3) total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date. Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1) two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2) additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3) simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations. Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week. The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru.
Ensemble method for dengue prediction.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anna L Buczak
Full Text Available In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico during four dengue seasons: 1 peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2 peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred; and 3 total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date.Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1 two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2 additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3 simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations.Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week.The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru.
Advanced Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Buckley, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Chiswell, S. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Kurzeja, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Maze, G. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Viner, B. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Werth, D. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)
2017-09-29
Ensemble modeling (EM), the creation of multiple atmospheric simulations for a given time period, has become an essential tool for characterizing uncertainties in model predictions. We explore two novel ensemble modeling techniques: (1) perturbation of model parameters (Adaptive Programming, AP), and (2) data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF). The current research is an extension to work from last year and examines transport on a small spatial scale (<100 km) in complex terrain, for more rigorous testing of the ensemble technique. Two different release cases were studied, a coastal release (SF6) and an inland release (Freon) which consisted of two release times. Observations of tracer concentration and meteorology are used to judge the ensemble results. In addition, adaptive grid techniques have been developed to reduce required computing resources for transport calculations. Using a 20- member ensemble, the standard approach generated downwind transport that was quantitatively good for both releases; however, the EnKF method produced additional improvement for the coastal release where the spatial and temporal differences due to interior valley heating lead to the inland movement of the plume. The AP technique showed improvements for both release cases, with more improvement shown in the inland release. This research demonstrated that transport accuracy can be improved when models are adapted to a particular location/time or when important local data is assimilated into the simulation and enhances SRNL’s capability in atmospheric transport modeling in support of its current customer base and local site missions, as well as our ability to attract new customers within the intelligence community.
Teaching Strategies for Specialized Ensembles.
Teaching Music, 1999
1999-01-01
Provides a strategy, from the book "Strategies for Teaching Specialized Ensembles," that addresses Standard 9A of the National Standards for Music Education. Explains that students will identify and describe the musical and historical characteristics of the classical era in music they perform and in audio examples. (CMK)
Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Martre, Pierre; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold
2015-01-01
, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24...
Spectral Diagonal Ensemble Kalman Filters
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kasanický, Ivan; Mandel, Jan; Vejmelka, Martin
2015-01-01
Roč. 22, č. 4 (2015), s. 485-497 ISSN 1023-5809 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-34856S Grant - others:NSF(US) DMS-1216481 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : data assimilation * ensemble Kalman filter * spectral representation Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.321, year: 2015
Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Networks Ensemble as ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Marquardt algorithm by varying conditions such as inputs, hidden neurons, initialization, training sets and random Gaussian noise injection to ... Several such ensembles formed the population which was evolved to generate the fittest ensemble.
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...
Localization of atomic ensembles via superfluorescence
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Macovei, Mihai; Evers, Joerg; Keitel, Christoph H.; Zubairy, M. Suhail
2007-01-01
The subwavelength localization of an ensemble of atoms concentrated to a small volume in space is investigated. The localization relies on the interaction of the ensemble with a standing wave laser field. The light scattered in the interaction of the standing wave field and the atom ensemble depends on the position of the ensemble relative to the standing wave nodes. This relation can be described by a fluorescence intensity profile, which depends on the standing wave field parameters and the ensemble properties and which is modified due to collective effects in the ensemble of nearby particles. We demonstrate that the intensity profile can be tailored to suit different localization setups. Finally, we apply these results to two localization schemes. First, we show how to localize an ensemble fixed at a certain position in the standing wave field. Second, we discuss localization of an ensemble passing through the standing wave field
Squeezing of Collective Excitations in Spin Ensembles
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kraglund Andersen, Christian; Mølmer, Klaus
2012-01-01
We analyse the possibility to create two-mode spin squeezed states of two separate spin ensembles by inverting the spins in one ensemble and allowing spin exchange between the ensembles via a near resonant cavity field. We investigate the dynamics of the system using a combination of numerical an...
Eigenfunction statistics of Wishart Brownian ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shukla, Pragya
2017-01-01
We theoretically analyze the eigenfunction fluctuation measures for a Hermitian ensemble which appears as an intermediate state of the perturbation of a stationary ensemble by another stationary ensemble of Wishart (Laguerre) type. Similar to the perturbation by a Gaussian stationary ensemble, the measures undergo a diffusive dynamics in terms of the perturbation parameter but the energy-dependence of the fluctuations is different in the two cases. This may have important consequences for the eigenfunction dynamics as well as phase transition studies in many areas of complexity where Brownian ensembles appear. (paper)
A Safe Education for All: Recognizing and Stemming Harassment in Music Classes and Ensembles
Carter, Bruce Allen
2011-01-01
This article addresses the pervasiveness of harassment in schools in the United States and presents ways to recognize and stem bullying in music classrooms. Music educators are in a unique position to recognize atypical behaviors in their students. Music educators who teach middle and high school ensembles often retain the same students in their…
Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics ensemble method
Eu, Byung Chan
1998-01-01
In this monograph, nonequilibrium statistical mechanics is developed by means of ensemble methods on the basis of the Boltzmann equation, the generic Boltzmann equations for classical and quantum dilute gases, and a generalised Boltzmann equation for dense simple fluids The theories are developed in forms parallel with the equilibrium Gibbs ensemble theory in a way fully consistent with the laws of thermodynamics The generalised hydrodynamics equations are the integral part of the theory and describe the evolution of macroscopic processes in accordance with the laws of thermodynamics of systems far removed from equilibrium Audience This book will be of interest to researchers in the fields of statistical mechanics, condensed matter physics, gas dynamics, fluid dynamics, rheology, irreversible thermodynamics and nonequilibrium phenomena
Statistical Analysis of Protein Ensembles
Máté, Gabriell; Heermann, Dieter
2014-04-01
As 3D protein-configuration data is piling up, there is an ever-increasing need for well-defined, mathematically rigorous analysis approaches, especially that the vast majority of the currently available methods rely heavily on heuristics. We propose an analysis framework which stems from topology, the field of mathematics which studies properties preserved under continuous deformations. First, we calculate a barcode representation of the molecules employing computational topology algorithms. Bars in this barcode represent different topological features. Molecules are compared through their barcodes by statistically determining the difference in the set of their topological features. As a proof-of-principle application, we analyze a dataset compiled of ensembles of different proteins, obtained from the Ensemble Protein Database. We demonstrate that our approach correctly detects the different protein groupings.
Ensemble methods for handwritten digit recognition
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Lars Kai; Liisberg, Christian; Salamon, P.
1992-01-01
Neural network ensembles are applied to handwritten digit recognition. The individual networks of the ensemble are combinations of sparse look-up tables (LUTs) with random receptive fields. It is shown that the consensus of a group of networks outperforms the best individual of the ensemble....... It is further shown that it is possible to estimate the ensemble performance as well as the learning curve on a medium-size database. In addition the authors present preliminary analysis of experiments on a large database and show that state-of-the-art performance can be obtained using the ensemble approach...... by optimizing the receptive fields. It is concluded that it is possible to improve performance significantly by introducing moderate-size ensembles; in particular, a 20-25% improvement has been found. The ensemble random LUTs, when trained on a medium-size database, reach a performance (without rejects) of 94...
Benchmarking Commercial Conformer Ensemble Generators.
Friedrich, Nils-Ole; de Bruyn Kops, Christina; Flachsenberg, Florian; Sommer, Kai; Rarey, Matthias; Kirchmair, Johannes
2017-11-27
We assess and compare the performance of eight commercial conformer ensemble generators (ConfGen, ConfGenX, cxcalc, iCon, MOE LowModeMD, MOE Stochastic, MOE Conformation Import, and OMEGA) and one leading free algorithm, the distance geometry algorithm implemented in RDKit. The comparative study is based on a new version of the Platinum Diverse Dataset, a high-quality benchmarking dataset of 2859 protein-bound ligand conformations extracted from the PDB. Differences in the performance of commercial algorithms are much smaller than those observed for free algorithms in our previous study (J. Chem. Inf. 2017, 57, 529-539). For commercial algorithms, the median minimum root-mean-square deviations measured between protein-bound ligand conformations and ensembles of a maximum of 250 conformers are between 0.46 and 0.61 Å. Commercial conformer ensemble generators are characterized by their high robustness, with at least 99% of all input molecules successfully processed and few or even no substantial geometrical errors detectable in their output conformations. The RDKit distance geometry algorithm (with minimization enabled) appears to be a good free alternative since its performance is comparable to that of the midranked commercial algorithms. Based on a statistical analysis, we elaborate on which algorithms to use and how to parametrize them for best performance in different application scenarios.
Measuring social interaction in music ensembles.
Volpe, Gualtiero; D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Badino, Leonardo; Camurri, Antonio; Fadiga, Luciano
2016-05-05
Music ensembles are an ideal test-bed for quantitative analysis of social interaction. Music is an inherently social activity, and music ensembles offer a broad variety of scenarios which are particularly suitable for investigation. Small ensembles, such as string quartets, are deemed a significant example of self-managed teams, where all musicians contribute equally to a task. In bigger ensembles, such as orchestras, the relationship between a leader (the conductor) and a group of followers (the musicians) clearly emerges. This paper presents an overview of recent research on social interaction in music ensembles with a particular focus on (i) studies from cognitive neuroscience; and (ii) studies adopting a computational approach for carrying out automatic quantitative analysis of ensemble music performances. © 2016 The Author(s).
Statistical ensembles in quantum mechanics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Blokhintsev, D.
1976-01-01
The interpretation of quantum mechanics presented in this paper is based on the concept of quantum ensembles. This concept differs essentially from the canonical one by that the interference of the observer into the state of a microscopic system is of no greater importance than in any other field of physics. Owing to this fact, the laws established by quantum mechanics are not of less objective character than the laws governing classical statistical mechanics. The paradoxical nature of some statements of quantum mechanics which result from the interpretation of the wave functions as the observer's notebook greatly stimulated the development of the idea presented. (Auth.)
Wind Power Prediction using Ensembles
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Giebel, Gregor; Badger, Jake; Landberg, Lars
2005-01-01
offshore wind farm and the whole Jutland/Funen area. The utilities used these forecasts for maintenance planning, fuel consumption estimates and over-the-weekend trading on the Leipzig power exchange. Othernotable scientific results include the better accuracy of forecasts made up from a simple...... superposition of two NWP provider (in our case, DMI and DWD), an investigation of the merits of a parameterisation of the turbulent kinetic energy within thedelivered wind speed forecasts, and the finding that a “naïve” downscaling of each of the coarse ECMWF ensemble members with higher resolution HIRLAM did...
EnsembleGASVR: A novel ensemble method for classifying missense single nucleotide polymorphisms
Rapakoulia, Trisevgeni; Theofilatos, Konstantinos A.; Kleftogiannis, Dimitrios A.; Likothanasis, Spiridon D.; Tsakalidis, Athanasios K.; Mavroudi, Seferina P.
2014-01-01
do not support their predictions with confidence scores. Results: To overcome these limitations, a novel ensemble computational methodology is proposed. EnsembleGASVR facilitates a twostep algorithm, which in its first step applies a novel
Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction
Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.
2015-01-01
Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.
Urban runoff forecasting with ensemble weather predictions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Jonas Wied; Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca
This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice.......This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice....
Joys of Community Ensemble Playing: The Case of the Happy Roll Elastic Ensemble in Taiwan
Hsieh, Yuan-Mei; Kao, Kai-Chi
2012-01-01
The Happy Roll Elastic Ensemble (HREE) is a community music ensemble supported by Tainan Culture Centre in Taiwan. With enjoyment and friendship as its primary goals, it aims to facilitate the joys of ensemble playing and the spirit of social networking. This article highlights the key aspects of HREE's development in its first two years…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Angelo José Fernandes
2008-12-01
Full Text Available Este trabalho é uma pequena parte de uma ampla pesquisa sobre prática e sonoridade de diversos estilos de música coral. A partir de uma investigação bibliográfica, que inclui autores desde o período Barroco, temos como objetivos: a descrição da sonoridade vocal e coral ao longo do referido período; a abordagem dos tipos vocais da época; a análise de alguns procedimentos técnico-vocais; a descrição de características importantes da prática coral no período; e, por fim, uma apresentação de sugestões técnicas e estilísticas para a prática da música coral barroca na atualidade.This paper is a small part of a large research on practice and sonority of many choral music styles. Through bibliographical investigation of works written by authors from the Baroque period to the present, our goals are: the description of the vocal sonority throughout the Baroque period; the presentations of the vocal types in the Baroque; the analysis of some vocal techniques; the description of important aspects of the choral practice of the period; and finally, the presentation of some technical and stylistic suggestions for the practice of the Baroque choral music in the present.
Layered Ensemble Architecture for Time Series Forecasting.
Rahman, Md Mustafizur; Islam, Md Monirul; Murase, Kazuyuki; Yao, Xin
2016-01-01
Time series forecasting (TSF) has been widely used in many application areas such as science, engineering, and finance. The phenomena generating time series are usually unknown and information available for forecasting is only limited to the past values of the series. It is, therefore, necessary to use an appropriate number of past values, termed lag, for forecasting. This paper proposes a layered ensemble architecture (LEA) for TSF problems. Our LEA consists of two layers, each of which uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks. While the first ensemble layer tries to find an appropriate lag, the second ensemble layer employs the obtained lag for forecasting. Unlike most previous work on TSF, the proposed architecture considers both accuracy and diversity of the individual networks in constructing an ensemble. LEA trains different networks in the ensemble by using different training sets with an aim of maintaining diversity among the networks. However, it uses the appropriate lag and combines the best trained networks to construct the ensemble. This indicates LEAs emphasis on accuracy of the networks. The proposed architecture has been tested extensively on time series data of neural network (NN)3 and NN5 competitions. It has also been tested on several standard benchmark time series data. In terms of forecasting accuracy, our experimental results have revealed clearly that LEA is better than other ensemble and nonensemble methods.
Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Arritt, Raymond W.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Takle, Eugene S.
2004-01-01
The ensemble prediction methods used for seasonal limited area forecasts were examined by comparing methods for generating ensemble simulations of seasonal precipitation. The summer 1993 model over the north-central US was used as a test case. The four methods examined included the lagged-average...
Topological quantization of ensemble averages
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Prodan, Emil
2009-01-01
We define the current of a quantum observable and, under well-defined conditions, we connect its ensemble average to the index of a Fredholm operator. The present work builds on a formalism developed by Kellendonk and Schulz-Baldes (2004 J. Funct. Anal. 209 388) to study the quantization of edge currents for continuous magnetic Schroedinger operators. The generalization given here may be a useful tool to scientists looking for novel manifestations of the topological quantization. As a new application, we show that the differential conductance of atomic wires is given by the index of a certain operator. We also comment on how the formalism can be used to probe the existence of edge states
Characterizing Ensembles of Superconducting Qubits
Sears, Adam; Birenbaum, Jeff; Hover, David; Rosenberg, Danna; Weber, Steven; Yoder, Jonilyn L.; Kerman, Jamie; Gustavsson, Simon; Kamal, Archana; Yan, Fei; Oliver, William
We investigate ensembles of up to 48 superconducting qubits embedded within a superconducting cavity. Such arrays of qubits have been proposed for the experimental study of Ising Hamiltonians, and efficient methods to characterize and calibrate these types of systems are still under development. Here we leverage high qubit coherence (> 70 μs) to characterize individual devices as well as qubit-qubit interactions, utilizing the common resonator mode for a joint readout. This research was funded by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) under Air Force Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0002. The views and conclusions contained herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements, either expressed or implied, of ODNI, IARPA, or the US Government.
MSEBAG: a dynamic classifier ensemble generation based on `minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging
Chen, Lei; Kamel, Mohamed S.
2016-01-01
In this paper, we propose a dynamic classifier system, MSEBAG, which is characterised by searching for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging at the ensemble level. It adopts an 'over-generation and selection' strategy and aims to achieve a good bias-variance trade-off. In the training phase, MSEBAG first searches for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', which maximises the in-sample fitness with the minimal number of base classifiers. Then, starting from the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', a backward stepwise algorithm is employed to generate a collection of ensembles. The objective is to create a collection of ensembles with a descending fitness on the data, as well as a descending complexity in the structure. MSEBAG dynamically selects the ensembles from the collection for the decision aggregation. The extended adaptive aggregation (EAA) approach, a bagging-style algorithm performed at the ensemble level, is employed for this task. EAA searches for the competent ensembles using a score function, which takes into consideration both the in-sample fitness and the confidence of the statistical inference, and averages the decisions of the selected ensembles to label the test pattern. The experimental results show that the proposed MSEBAG outperforms the benchmarks on average.
Professional Notes: Creativity in the Jazz Ensemble--Let's Get away from the Written Jazz Solo
Larson, Robert
2015-01-01
Performing jazz offers students the opportunity to participate in a unique group activity where notated passages are blended with exciting moments of improvisation. Expectations have risen over the years as middle and high school jazz ensembles have proved that they can perform at a very high level. This expectation however, has led to the…
Creating ensembles of decision trees through sampling
Kamath, Chandrika; Cantu-Paz, Erick
2005-08-30
A system for decision tree ensembles that includes a module to read the data, a module to sort the data, a module to evaluate a potential split of the data according to some criterion using a random sample of the data, a module to split the data, and a module to combine multiple decision trees in ensembles. The decision tree method is based on statistical sampling techniques and includes the steps of reading the data; sorting the data; evaluating a potential split according to some criterion using a random sample of the data, splitting the data, and combining multiple decision trees in ensembles.
Derivation of Mayer Series from Canonical Ensemble
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Xian-Zhi
2016-01-01
Mayer derived the Mayer series from both the canonical ensemble and the grand canonical ensemble by use of the cluster expansion method. In 2002, we conjectured a recursion formula of the canonical partition function of a fluid (X.Z. Wang, Phys. Rev. E 66 (2002) 056102). In this paper we give a proof for this formula by developing an appropriate expansion of the integrand of the canonical partition function. We further derive the Mayer series solely from the canonical ensemble by use of this recursion formula. (paper)
Derivation of Mayer Series from Canonical Ensemble
Wang, Xian-Zhi
2016-02-01
Mayer derived the Mayer series from both the canonical ensemble and the grand canonical ensemble by use of the cluster expansion method. In 2002, we conjectured a recursion formula of the canonical partition function of a fluid (X.Z. Wang, Phys. Rev. E 66 (2002) 056102). In this paper we give a proof for this formula by developing an appropriate expansion of the integrand of the canonical partition function. We further derive the Mayer series solely from the canonical ensemble by use of this recursion formula.
Ensemble Weight Enumerators for Protograph LDPC Codes
Divsalar, Dariush
2006-01-01
Recently LDPC codes with projected graph, or protograph structures have been proposed. In this paper, finite length ensemble weight enumerators for LDPC codes with protograph structures are obtained. Asymptotic results are derived as the block size goes to infinity. In particular we are interested in obtaining ensemble average weight enumerators for protograph LDPC codes which have minimum distance that grows linearly with block size. As with irregular ensembles, linear minimum distance property is sensitive to the proportion of degree-2 variable nodes. In this paper the derived results on ensemble weight enumerators show that linear minimum distance condition on degree distribution of unstructured irregular LDPC codes is a sufficient but not a necessary condition for protograph LDPC codes.
Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging
Luo, X.; Hoteit, Ibrahim
2012-01-01
Covariance inflation and localisation are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) by (in effect) adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work
Ensemble Machine Learning Methods and Applications
Ma, Yunqian
2012-01-01
It is common wisdom that gathering a variety of views and inputs improves the process of decision making, and, indeed, underpins a democratic society. Dubbed “ensemble learning” by researchers in computational intelligence and machine learning, it is known to improve a decision system’s robustness and accuracy. Now, fresh developments are allowing researchers to unleash the power of ensemble learning in an increasing range of real-world applications. Ensemble learning algorithms such as “boosting” and “random forest” facilitate solutions to key computational issues such as face detection and are now being applied in areas as diverse as object trackingand bioinformatics. Responding to a shortage of literature dedicated to the topic, this volume offers comprehensive coverage of state-of-the-art ensemble learning techniques, including various contributions from researchers in leading industrial research labs. At once a solid theoretical study and a practical guide, the volume is a windfall for r...
AUC-Maximizing Ensembles through Metalearning.
LeDell, Erin; van der Laan, Mark J; Petersen, Maya
2016-05-01
Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) is often used to measure the performance of an estimator in binary classification problems. An AUC-maximizing classifier can have significant advantages in cases where ranking correctness is valued or if the outcome is rare. In a Super Learner ensemble, maximization of the AUC can be achieved by the use of an AUC-maximining metalearning algorithm. We discuss an implementation of an AUC-maximization technique that is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem. We also evaluate the effectiveness of a large number of different nonlinear optimization algorithms to maximize the cross-validated AUC of the ensemble fit. The results provide evidence that AUC-maximizing metalearners can, and often do, out-perform non-AUC-maximizing metalearning methods, with respect to ensemble AUC. The results also demonstrate that as the level of imbalance in the training data increases, the Super Learner ensemble outperforms the top base algorithm by a larger degree.
Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering
Roh, S.; Jun, M.; Szunyogh, I.; Genton, Marc G.
2015-01-01
the Schur (element-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function
Polarized ensembles of random pure states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cunden, Fabio Deelan; Facchi, Paolo; Florio, Giuseppe
2013-01-01
A new family of polarized ensembles of random pure states is presented. These ensembles are obtained by linear superposition of two random pure states with suitable distributions, and are quite manageable. We will use the obtained results for two purposes: on the one hand we will be able to derive an efficient strategy for sampling states from isopurity manifolds. On the other, we will characterize the deviation of a pure quantum state from separability under the influence of noise. (paper)
Polarized ensembles of random pure states
Deelan Cunden, Fabio; Facchi, Paolo; Florio, Giuseppe
2013-08-01
A new family of polarized ensembles of random pure states is presented. These ensembles are obtained by linear superposition of two random pure states with suitable distributions, and are quite manageable. We will use the obtained results for two purposes: on the one hand we will be able to derive an efficient strategy for sampling states from isopurity manifolds. On the other, we will characterize the deviation of a pure quantum state from separability under the influence of noise.
Quark ensembles with infinite correlation length
Molodtsov, S. V.; Zinovjev, G. M.
2014-01-01
By studying quark ensembles with infinite correlation length we formulate the quantum field theory model that, as we show, is exactly integrable and develops an instability of its standard vacuum ensemble (the Dirac sea). We argue such an instability is rooted in high ground state degeneracy (for 'realistic' space-time dimensions) featuring a fairly specific form of energy distribution, and with the cutoff parameter going to infinity this inherent energy distribution becomes infinitely narrow...
Orbital magnetism in ensembles of ballistic billiards
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ullmo, D.; Richter, K.; Jalabert, R.A.
1993-01-01
The magnetic response of ensembles of small two-dimensional structures at finite temperatures is calculated. Using semiclassical methods and numerical calculation it is demonstrated that only short classical trajectories are relevant. The magnetic susceptibility is enhanced in regular systems, where these trajectories appear in families. For ensembles of squares large paramagnetic susceptibility is obtained, in good agreement with recent measurements in the ballistic regime. (authors). 20 refs., 2 figs
Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering
S. Roh; M. Jun; I. Szunyogh; M. G. Genton
2015-01-01
In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of ...
Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping
2017-04-01
Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.
Towards a GME ensemble forecasting system: Ensemble initialization using the breeding technique
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jan D. Keller
2008-12-01
Full Text Available The quantitative forecast of precipitation requires a probabilistic background particularly with regard to forecast lead times of more than 3 days. As only ensemble simulations can provide useful information of the underlying probability density function, we built a new ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS based on the GME model of the German Meteorological Service (DWD. For the generation of appropriate initial ensemble perturbations we chose the breeding technique developed by Toth and Kalnay (1993, 1997, which develops perturbations by estimating the regions of largest model error induced uncertainty. This method is applied and tested in the framework of quasi-operational forecasts for a three month period in 2007. The performance of the resulting ensemble forecasts are compared to the operational ensemble prediction systems ECMWF EPS and NCEP GFS by means of ensemble spread of free atmosphere parameters (geopotential and temperature and ensemble skill of precipitation forecasting. This comparison indicates that the GME ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS provides reasonable forecasts with spread skill score comparable to that of the NCEP GFS. An analysis with the continuous ranked probability score exhibits a lack of resolution for the GME forecasts compared to the operational ensembles. However, with significant enhancements during the 3 month test period, the first results of our work with the GME-EFS indicate possibilities for further development as well as the potential for later operational usage.
Conductor gestures influence evaluations of ensemble performance.
Morrison, Steven J; Price, Harry E; Smedley, Eric M; Meals, Cory D
2014-01-01
Previous research has found that listener evaluations of ensemble performances vary depending on the expressivity of the conductor's gestures, even when performances are otherwise identical. It was the purpose of the present study to test whether this effect of visual information was evident in the evaluation of specific aspects of ensemble performance: articulation and dynamics. We constructed a set of 32 music performances that combined auditory and visual information and were designed to feature a high degree of contrast along one of two target characteristics: articulation and dynamics. We paired each of four music excerpts recorded by a chamber ensemble in both a high- and low-contrast condition with video of four conductors demonstrating high- and low-contrast gesture specifically appropriate to either articulation or dynamics. Using one of two equivalent test forms, college music majors and non-majors (N = 285) viewed sixteen 30 s performances and evaluated the quality of the ensemble's articulation, dynamics, technique, and tempo along with overall expressivity. Results showed significantly higher evaluations for performances featuring high rather than low conducting expressivity regardless of the ensemble's performance quality. Evaluations for both articulation and dynamics were strongly and positively correlated with evaluations of overall ensemble expressivity.
Rotationally invariant family of Levy-like random matrix ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Choi, Jinmyung; Muttalib, K A
2009-01-01
We introduce a family of rotationally invariant random matrix ensembles characterized by a parameter λ. While λ = 1 corresponds to well-known critical ensembles, we show that λ ≠ 1 describes 'Levy-like' ensembles, characterized by power-law eigenvalue densities. For λ > 1 the density is bounded, as in Gaussian ensembles, but λ < 1 describes ensembles characterized by densities with long tails. In particular, the model allows us to evaluate, in terms of a novel family of orthogonal polynomials, the eigenvalue correlations for Levy-like ensembles. These correlations differ qualitatively from those in either the Gaussian or the critical ensembles. (fast track communication)
Ensemble data assimilation in the Red Sea: sensitivity to ensemble selection and atmospheric forcing
Toye, Habib
2017-05-26
We present our efforts to build an ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system for the Red Sea. The system consists of the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate ocean circulation and of the Data Research Testbed (DART) for ensemble data assimilation. DART has been configured to integrate all members of an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) in parallel, based on which we adapted the ensemble operations in DART to use an invariant ensemble, i.e., an ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) algorithm. This approach requires only single forward model integration in the forecast step and therefore saves substantial computational cost. To deal with the strong seasonal variability of the Red Sea, the EnOI ensemble is then seasonally selected from a climatology of long-term model outputs. Observations of remote sensing sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) are assimilated every 3 days. Real-time atmospheric fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as forcing in different assimilation experiments. We investigate the behaviors of the EAKF and (seasonal-) EnOI and compare their performances for assimilating and forecasting the circulation of the Red Sea. We further assess the sensitivity of the assimilation system to various filtering parameters (ensemble size, inflation) and atmospheric forcing.
The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX)
Wood, A. W.; Thielen, J.; Pappenberger, F.; Schaake, J. C.; Hartman, R. K.
2012-12-01
The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment was established in March, 2004, at a workshop hosted by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). With support from the US National Weather Service (NWS) and the European Commission (EC), the HEPEX goal was to bring the international hydrological and meteorological communities together to advance the understanding and adoption of hydrological ensemble forecasts for decision support in emergency management and water resources sectors. The strategy to meet this goal includes meetings that connect the user, forecast producer and research communities to exchange ideas, data and methods; the coordination of experiments to address specific challenges; and the formation of testbeds to facilitate shared experimentation. HEPEX has organized about a dozen international workshops, as well as sessions at scientific meetings (including AMS, AGU and EGU) and special issues of scientific journals where workshop results have been published. Today, the HEPEX mission is to demonstrate the added value of hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) for emergency management and water resources sectors to make decisions that have important consequences for economy, public health, safety, and the environment. HEPEX is now organised around six major themes that represent core elements of a hydrologic ensemble prediction enterprise: input and pre-processing, ensemble techniques, data assimilation, post-processing, verification, and communication and use in decision making. This poster presents an overview of recent and planned HEPEX activities, highlighting case studies that exemplify the focus and objectives of HEPEX.
Understanding ensemble protein folding at atomic detail
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wallin, Stefan; Shakhnovich, Eugene I
2008-01-01
Although far from routine, simulating the folding of specific short protein chains on the computer, at a detailed atomic level, is starting to become a reality. This remarkable progress, which has been made over the last decade or so, allows a fundamental aspect of the protein folding process to be addressed, namely its statistical nature. In order to make quantitative comparisons with experimental kinetic data a complete ensemble view of folding must be achieved, with key observables averaged over the large number of microscopically different folding trajectories available to a protein chain. Here we review recent advances in atomic-level protein folding simulations and the new insight provided by them into the protein folding process. An important element in understanding ensemble folding kinetics are methods for analyzing many separate folding trajectories, and we discuss techniques developed to condense the large amount of information contained in an ensemble of trajectories into a manageable picture of the folding process. (topical review)
Lattice gauge theory in the microcanonical ensemble
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Callaway, D.J.E.; Rahman, A.
1983-01-01
The microcanonical-ensemble formulation of lattice gauge theory proposed recently is examined in detail. Expectation values in this new ensemble are determined by solving a large set of coupled ordinary differential equations, after the fashion of a molecular dynamics simulation. Following a brief review of the microcanonical ensemble, calculations are performed for the gauge groups U(1), SU(2), and SU(3). The results are compared and contrasted with standard methods of computation. Several advantages of the new formalism are noted. For example, no random numbers are required to update the system. Also, this update is performed in a simultaneous fashion. Thus the microcanonical method presumably adapts well to parallel processing techniques, especially when the p action is highly nonlocal (such as when fermions are included)
Ensemble Network Architecture for Deep Reinforcement Learning
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xi-liang Chen
2018-01-01
Full Text Available The popular deep Q learning algorithm is known to be instability because of the Q-value’s shake and overestimation action values under certain conditions. These issues tend to adversely affect their performance. In this paper, we develop the ensemble network architecture for deep reinforcement learning which is based on value function approximation. The temporal ensemble stabilizes the training process by reducing the variance of target approximation error and the ensemble of target values reduces the overestimate and makes better performance by estimating more accurate Q-value. Our results show that this architecture leads to statistically significant better value evaluation and more stable and better performance on several classical control tasks at OpenAI Gym environment.
Embedded random matrix ensembles in quantum physics
Kota, V K B
2014-01-01
Although used with increasing frequency in many branches of physics, random matrix ensembles are not always sufficiently specific to account for important features of the physical system at hand. One refinement which retains the basic stochastic approach but allows for such features consists in the use of embedded ensembles. The present text is an exhaustive introduction to and survey of this important field. Starting with an easy-to-read introduction to general random matrix theory, the text then develops the necessary concepts from the beginning, accompanying the reader to the frontiers of present-day research. With some notable exceptions, to date these ensembles have primarily been applied in nuclear spectroscopy. A characteristic example is the use of a random two-body interaction in the framework of the nuclear shell model. Yet, topics in atomic physics, mesoscopic physics, quantum information science and statistical mechanics of isolated finite quantum systems can also be addressed using these ensemb...
Ensemble Kalman methods for inverse problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iglesias, Marco A; Law, Kody J H; Stuart, Andrew M
2013-01-01
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was introduced by Evensen in 1994 (Evensen 1994 J. Geophys. Res. 99 10143–62) as a novel method for data assimilation: state estimation for noisily observed time-dependent problems. Since that time it has had enormous impact in many application domains because of its robustness and ease of implementation, and numerical evidence of its accuracy. In this paper we propose the application of an iterative ensemble Kalman method for the solution of a wide class of inverse problems. In this context we show that the estimate of the unknown function that we obtain with the ensemble Kalman method lies in a subspace A spanned by the initial ensemble. Hence the resulting error may be bounded above by the error found from the best approximation in this subspace. We provide numerical experiments which compare the error incurred by the ensemble Kalman method for inverse problems with the error of the best approximation in A, and with variants on traditional least-squares approaches, restricted to the subspace A. In so doing we demonstrate that the ensemble Kalman method for inverse problems provides a derivative-free optimization method with comparable accuracy to that achieved by traditional least-squares approaches. Furthermore, we also demonstrate that the accuracy is of the same order of magnitude as that achieved by the best approximation. Three examples are used to demonstrate these assertions: inversion of a compact linear operator; inversion of piezometric head to determine hydraulic conductivity in a Darcy model of groundwater flow; and inversion of Eulerian velocity measurements at positive times to determine the initial condition in an incompressible fluid. (paper)
Cluster ensembles, quantization and the dilogarithm
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fock, Vladimir; Goncharov, Alexander B.
2009-01-01
A cluster ensemble is a pair of positive spaces (i.e. varieties equipped with positive atlases), coming with an action of a symmetry group . The space is closely related to the spectrum of a cluster algebra [ 12 ]. The two spaces are related by a morphism . The space is equipped with a closed -form......, possibly degenerate, and the space has a Poisson structure. The map is compatible with these structures. The dilogarithm together with its motivic and quantum avatars plays a central role in the cluster ensemble structure. We define a non-commutative -deformation of the -space. When is a root of unity...
Ensemble computing for the petroleum industry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Annaratone, M.; Dossa, D.
1995-01-01
Computer downsizing is one of the most often used buzzwords in today's competitive business, and the petroleum industry is at the forefront of this revolution. Ensemble computing provides the key for computer downsizing with its first incarnation, i.e., workstation farms. This paper concerns the importance of increasing the productivity cycle and not just the execution time of a job. The authors introduce the concept of ensemble computing and workstation farms. The they discuss how different computing paradigms can be addressed by workstation farms
A class of energy-based ensembles in Tsallis statistics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chandrashekar, R; Naina Mohammed, S S
2011-01-01
A comprehensive investigation is carried out on the class of energy-based ensembles. The eight ensembles are divided into two main classes. In the isothermal class of ensembles the individual members are at the same temperature. A unified framework is evolved to describe the four isothermal ensembles using the currently accepted third constraint formalism. The isothermal–isobaric, grand canonical and generalized ensembles are illustrated through a study of the classical nonrelativistic and extreme relativistic ideal gas models. An exact calculation is possible only in the case of the isothermal–isobaric ensemble. The study of the ideal gas models in the grand canonical and the generalized ensembles has been carried out using a perturbative procedure with the nonextensivity parameter (1 − q) as the expansion parameter. Though all the thermodynamic quantities have been computed up to a particular order in (1 − q) the procedure can be extended up to any arbitrary order in the expansion parameter. In the adiabatic class of ensembles the individual members of the ensemble have the same value of the heat function and a unified formulation to described all four ensembles is given. The nonrelativistic and the extreme relativistic ideal gases are studied in the isoenthalpic–isobaric ensemble, the adiabatic ensemble with number fluctuations and the adiabatic ensemble with number and particle fluctuations
The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX)
Wood, Andy; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Ramos, Maria-Helena
2015-04-01
The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment was established in March, 2004, at a workshop hosted by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), and co-sponsored by the US National Weather Service (NWS) and the European Commission (EC). The HEPEX goal was to bring the international hydrological and meteorological communities together to advance the understanding and adoption of hydrological ensemble forecasts for decision support. HEPEX pursues this goal through research efforts and practical implementations involving six core elements of a hydrologic ensemble prediction enterprise: input and pre-processing, ensemble techniques, data assimilation, post-processing, verification, and communication and use in decision making. HEPEX has grown through meetings that connect the user, forecast producer and research communities to exchange ideas, data and methods; the coordination of experiments to address specific challenges; and the formation of testbeds to facilitate shared experimentation. In the last decade, HEPEX has organized over a dozen international workshops, as well as sessions at scientific meetings (including AMS, AGU and EGU) and special issues of scientific journals where workshop results have been published. Through these interactions and an active online blog (www.hepex.org), HEPEX has built a strong and active community of nearly 400 researchers & practitioners around the world. This poster presents an overview of recent and planned HEPEX activities, highlighting case studies that exemplify the focus and objectives of HEPEX.
A method for ensemble wildland fire simulation
Mark A. Finney; Isaac C. Grenfell; Charles W. McHugh; Robert C. Seli; Diane Trethewey; Richard D. Stratton; Stuart Brittain
2011-01-01
An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis...
Ensembl Genomes 2016: more genomes, more complexity.
Kersey, Paul Julian; Allen, James E; Armean, Irina; Boddu, Sanjay; Bolt, Bruce J; Carvalho-Silva, Denise; Christensen, Mikkel; Davis, Paul; Falin, Lee J; Grabmueller, Christoph; Humphrey, Jay; Kerhornou, Arnaud; Khobova, Julia; Aranganathan, Naveen K; Langridge, Nicholas; Lowy, Ernesto; McDowall, Mark D; Maheswari, Uma; Nuhn, Michael; Ong, Chuang Kee; Overduin, Bert; Paulini, Michael; Pedro, Helder; Perry, Emily; Spudich, Giulietta; Tapanari, Electra; Walts, Brandon; Williams, Gareth; Tello-Ruiz, Marcela; Stein, Joshua; Wei, Sharon; Ware, Doreen; Bolser, Daniel M; Howe, Kevin L; Kulesha, Eugene; Lawson, Daniel; Maslen, Gareth; Staines, Daniel M
2016-01-04
Ensembl Genomes (http://www.ensemblgenomes.org) is an integrating resource for genome-scale data from non-vertebrate species, complementing the resources for vertebrate genomics developed in the context of the Ensembl project (http://www.ensembl.org). Together, the two resources provide a consistent set of programmatic and interactive interfaces to a rich range of data including reference sequence, gene models, transcriptional data, genetic variation and comparative analysis. This paper provides an update to the previous publications about the resource, with a focus on recent developments. These include the development of new analyses and views to represent polyploid genomes (of which bread wheat is the primary exemplar); and the continued up-scaling of the resource, which now includes over 23 000 bacterial genomes, 400 fungal genomes and 100 protist genomes, in addition to 55 genomes from invertebrate metazoa and 39 genomes from plants. This dramatic increase in the number of included genomes is one part of a broader effort to automate the integration of archival data (genome sequence, but also associated RNA sequence data and variant calls) within the context of reference genomes and make it available through the Ensembl user interfaces. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.
NYYD Ensemble ja Riho Sibul / Anneli Remme
Remme, Anneli, 1968-
2001-01-01
Gavin Bryarsi teos "Jesus' Blood Never Failed Me Yet" NYYD Ensemble'i ja Riho Sibula esituses 27. detsembril Pauluse kirikus Tartus ja 28. detsembril Rootsi- Mihkli kirikus Tallinnas. Kaastegevad Tartu Ülikooli Kammerkoor (Tartus) ja kammerkoor Voces Musicales (Tallinnas). Kunstiline juht Olari Elts
Conductor gestures influence evaluations of ensemble performance
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Steven eMorrison
2014-07-01
Full Text Available Previous research has found that listener evaluations of ensemble performances vary depending on the expressivity of the conductor’s gestures, even when performances are otherwise identical. It was the purpose of the present study to test whether this effect of visual information was evident in the evaluation of specific aspects of ensemble performance, articulation and dynamics. We constructed a set of 32 music performances that combined auditory and visual information and were designed to feature a high degree of contrast along one of two target characteristics: articulation and dynamics. We paired each of four music excerpts recorded by a chamber ensemble in both a high- and low-contrast condition with video of four conductors demonstrating high- and low-contrast gesture specifically appropriate to either articulation or dynamics. Using one of two equivalent test forms, college music majors and nonmajors (N = 285 viewed sixteen 30-second performances and evaluated the quality of the ensemble’s articulation, dynamics, technique and tempo along with overall expressivity. Results showed significantly higher evaluations for performances featuring high rather than low conducting expressivity regardless of the ensemble’s performance quality. Evaluations for both articulation and dynamics were strongly and positively correlated with evaluations of overall ensemble expressivity.
Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Networks Ensemble as ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
NJD
Improvements in neural network calibration models by a novel approach using neural network ensemble (NNE) for the simultaneous ... process by training a number of neural networks. .... Matlab® version 6.1 was employed for building principal component ... provide a fair simulation of calibration data set with some degree.
A Theoretical Analysis of Why Hybrid Ensembles Work
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kuo-Wei Hsu
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Inspired by the group decision making process, ensembles or combinations of classifiers have been found favorable in a wide variety of application domains. Some researchers propose to use the mixture of two different types of classification algorithms to create a hybrid ensemble. Why does such an ensemble work? The question remains. Following the concept of diversity, which is one of the fundamental elements of the success of ensembles, we conduct a theoretical analysis of why hybrid ensembles work, connecting using different algorithms to accuracy gain. We also conduct experiments on classification performance of hybrid ensembles of classifiers created by decision tree and naïve Bayes classification algorithms, each of which is a top data mining algorithm and often used to create non-hybrid ensembles. Therefore, through this paper, we provide a complement to the theoretical foundation of creating and using hybrid ensembles.
Ensemble-based Kalman Filters in Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Zhaoxia PU; Joshua HACKER
2009-01-01
This study examines the effectiveness of ensemble Kalman filters in data assimilation with the strongly nonlinear dynamics of the Lorenz-63 model, and in particular their use in predicting the regime transition that occurs when the model jumps from one basin of attraction to the other. Four configurations of the ensemble-based Kalman filtering data assimilation techniques, including the ensemble Kalman filter, ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, ensemble square root filter and ensemble transform Kalman filter, are evaluated with their ability in predicting the regime transition (also called phase transition) and also are compared in terms of their sensitivity to both observational and sampling errors. The sensitivity of each ensemble-based filter to the size of the ensemble is also examined.
Ensemble of classifiers based network intrusion detection system performance bound
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Mkuzangwe, Nenekazi NP
2017-11-01
Full Text Available This paper provides a performance bound of a network intrusion detection system (NIDS) that uses an ensemble of classifiers. Currently researchers rely on implementing the ensemble of classifiers based NIDS before they can determine the performance...
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [2.5 Deg.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...
Using ensemble forecasting for wind power
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Giebel, G.; Landberg, L.; Badger, J. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Sattler, K.
2003-07-01
Short-term prediction of wind power has a long tradition in Denmark. It is an essential tool for the operators to keep the grid from becoming unstable in a region like Jutland, where more than 27% of the electricity consumption comes from wind power. This means that the minimum load is already lower than the maximum production from wind energy alone. Danish utilities have therefore used short-term prediction of wind energy since the mid-90ies. However, the accuracy is still far from being sufficient in the eyes of the utilities (used to have load forecasts accurate to within 5% on a one-week horizon). The Ensemble project tries to alleviate the dependency of the forecast quality on one model by using multiple models, and also will investigate the possibilities of using the model spread of multiple models or of dedicated ensemble runs for a prediction of the uncertainty of the forecast. Usually, short-term forecasting works (especially for the horizon beyond 6 hours) by gathering input from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. This input data is used together with online data in statistical models (this is the case eg in Zephyr/WPPT) to yield the output of the wind farms or of a whole region for the next 48 hours (only limited by the NWP model horizon). For the accuracy of the final production forecast, the accuracy of the NWP prediction is paramount. While many efforts are underway to increase the accuracy of the NWP forecasts themselves (which ultimately are limited by the amount of computing power available, the lack of a tight observational network on the Atlantic and limited physics modelling), another approach is to use ensembles of different models or different model runs. This can be either an ensemble of different models output for the same area, using different data assimilation schemes and different model physics, or a dedicated ensemble run by a large institution, where the same model is run with slight variations in initial conditions and
Ensemble data assimilation in the Red Sea: sensitivity to ensemble selection and atmospheric forcing
Toye, Habib; Zhan, Peng; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Kartadikaria, Aditya R.; Huang, Huang; Knio, Omar; Hoteit, Ibrahim
2017-01-01
We present our efforts to build an ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system for the Red Sea. The system consists of the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate ocean circulation
Robust Ensemble Filtering and Its Relation to Covariance Inflation in the Ensemble Kalman Filter
Luo, Xiaodong; Hoteit, Ibrahim
2011-01-01
A robust ensemble filtering scheme based on the H∞ filtering theory is proposed. The optimal H∞ filter is derived by minimizing the supremum (or maximum) of a predefined cost function, a criterion different from the minimum variance used
Quantum canonical ensemble: A projection operator approach
Magnus, Wim; Lemmens, Lucien; Brosens, Fons
2017-09-01
Knowing the exact number of particles N, and taking this knowledge into account, the quantum canonical ensemble imposes a constraint on the occupation number operators. The constraint particularly hampers the systematic calculation of the partition function and any relevant thermodynamic expectation value for arbitrary but fixed N. On the other hand, fixing only the average number of particles, one may remove the above constraint and simply factorize the traces in Fock space into traces over single-particle states. As is well known, that would be the strategy of the grand-canonical ensemble which, however, comes with an additional Lagrange multiplier to impose the average number of particles. The appearance of this multiplier can be avoided by invoking a projection operator that enables a constraint-free computation of the partition function and its derived quantities in the canonical ensemble, at the price of an angular or contour integration. Introduced in the recent past to handle various issues related to particle-number projected statistics, the projection operator approach proves beneficial to a wide variety of problems in condensed matter physics for which the canonical ensemble offers a natural and appropriate environment. In this light, we present a systematic treatment of the canonical ensemble that embeds the projection operator into the formalism of second quantization while explicitly fixing N, the very number of particles rather than the average. Being applicable to both bosonic and fermionic systems in arbitrary dimensions, transparent integral representations are provided for the partition function ZN and the Helmholtz free energy FN as well as for two- and four-point correlation functions. The chemical potential is not a Lagrange multiplier regulating the average particle number but can be extracted from FN+1 -FN, as illustrated for a two-dimensional fermion gas.
Stainforth, D. A.; Allen, M.; Kettleborough, J.; Collins, M.; Heaps, A.; Stott, P.; Wehner, M.
2001-12-01
The climateprediction.com project is preparing to carry out the first systematic uncertainty analysis of climate forecasts using large ensembles of GCM climate simulations. This will be done by involving schools, businesses and members of the public, and utilizing the novel technology of distributed computing. Each participant will be asked to run one member of the ensemble on their PC. The model used will initially be the UK Met Office's Unified Model (UM). It will be run under Windows and software will be provided to enable those involved to view their model output as it develops. The project will use this method to carry out large perturbed physics GCM ensembles and thereby analyse the uncertainty in the forecasts from such models. Each participant/ensemble member will therefore have a version of the UM in which certain aspects of the model physics have been perturbed from their default values. Of course the non-linear nature of the system means that it will be necessary to look not just at perturbations to individual parameters in specific schemes, such as the cloud parameterization, but also to the many combinations of perturbations. This rapidly leads to the need for very large, perhaps multi-million member ensembles, which could only be undertaken using the distributed computing methodology. The status of the project will be presented and the Windows client will be demonstrated. In addition, initial results will be presented from beta test runs using a demo release for Linux PCs and Alpha workstations. Although small by comparison to the whole project, these pilot results constitute a 20-50 member perturbed physics climate ensemble with results indicating how climate sensitivity can be substantially affected by individual parameter values in the cloud scheme.
The classicality and quantumness of a quantum ensemble
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhu Xuanmin; Pang Shengshi; Wu Shengjun; Liu Quanhui
2011-01-01
In this Letter, we investigate the classicality and quantumness of a quantum ensemble. We define a quantity called ensemble classicality based on classical cloning strategy (ECCC) to characterize how classical a quantum ensemble is. An ensemble of commuting states has a unit ECCC, while a general ensemble can have a ECCC less than 1. We also study how quantum an ensemble is by defining a related quantity called quantumness. We find that the classicality of an ensemble is closely related to how perfectly the ensemble can be cloned, and that the quantumness of the ensemble used in a quantum key distribution (QKD) protocol is exactly the attainable lower bound of the error rate in the sifted key. - Highlights: → A quantity is defined to characterize how classical a quantum ensemble is. → The classicality of an ensemble is closely related to the cloning performance. → Another quantity is also defined to investigate how quantum an ensemble is. → This quantity gives the lower bound of the error rate in a QKD protocol.
Exploring and Listening to Chinese Classical Ensembles in General Music
Zhang, Wenzhuo
2017-01-01
Music diversity is valued in theory, but the extent to which it is efficiently presented in music class remains limited. Within this article, I aim to bridge this gap by introducing four genres of Chinese classical ensembles--Qin and Xiao duets, Jiang Nan bamboo and silk ensembles, Cantonese ensembles, and contemporary Chinese orchestras--into the…
Critical Listening in the Ensemble Rehearsal: A Community of Learners
Bell, Cindy L.
2018-01-01
This article explores a strategy for engaging ensemble members in critical listening analysis of performances and presents opportunities for improving ensemble sound through rigorous dialogue, reflection, and attentive rehearsing. Critical listening asks ensemble members to draw on individual playing experience and knowledge to describe what they…
Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles
Baker, Noel C.; Taylor, Patrick C.
2015-01-01
Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and
Demonstrating the value of larger ensembles in forecasting physical systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Reason L. Machete
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Ensemble simulation propagates a collection of initial states forward in time in a Monte Carlo fashion. Depending on the fidelity of the model and the properties of the initial ensemble, the goal of ensemble simulation can range from merely quantifying variations in the sensitivity of the model all the way to providing actionable probability forecasts of the future. Whatever the goal is, success depends on the properties of the ensemble, and there is a longstanding discussion in meteorology as to the size of initial condition ensemble most appropriate for Numerical Weather Prediction. In terms of resource allocation: how is one to divide finite computing resources between model complexity, ensemble size, data assimilation and other components of the forecast system. One wishes to avoid undersampling information available from the model's dynamics, yet one also wishes to use the highest fidelity model available. Arguably, a higher fidelity model can better exploit a larger ensemble; nevertheless it is often suggested that a relatively small ensemble, say ~16 members, is sufficient and that larger ensembles are not an effective investment of resources. This claim is shown to be dubious when the goal is probabilistic forecasting, even in settings where the forecast model is informative but imperfect. Probability forecasts for a ‘simple’ physical system are evaluated at different lead times; ensembles of up to 256 members are considered. The pure density estimation context (where ensemble members are drawn from the same underlying distribution as the target differs from the forecasting context, where one is given a high fidelity (but imperfect model. In the forecasting context, the information provided by additional members depends also on the fidelity of the model, the ensemble formation scheme (data assimilation, the ensemble interpretation and the nature of the observational noise. The effect of increasing the ensemble size is quantified by
Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Jørn; Madsen, H.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh
2015-01-01
Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the ensemble transform Kalman filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members...... and estimating parameters requires a much larger ensemble size than just assimilating groundwater head observations. However, the required ensemble size can be greatly reduced with the use of adaptive localization, which by far outperforms distance-based localization. The study is conducted using synthetic data...
Statistical ensembles for money and debt
Viaggiu, Stefano; Lionetto, Andrea; Bargigli, Leonardo; Longo, Michele
2012-10-01
We build a statistical ensemble representation of two economic models describing respectively, in simplified terms, a payment system and a credit market. To this purpose we adopt the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution where the role of the Hamiltonian is taken by the total money supply (i.e. including money created from debt) of a set of interacting economic agents. As a result, we can read the main thermodynamic quantities in terms of monetary ones. In particular, we define for the credit market model a work term which is related to the impact of monetary policy on credit creation. Furthermore, with our formalism we recover and extend some results concerning the temperature of an economic system, previously presented in the literature by considering only the monetary base as a conserved quantity. Finally, we study the statistical ensemble for the Pareto distribution.
ABCD of Beta Ensembles and Topological Strings
Krefl, Daniel
2012-01-01
We study beta-ensembles with Bn, Cn, and Dn eigenvalue measure and their relation with refined topological strings. Our results generalize the familiar connections between local topological strings and matrix models leading to An measure, and illustrate that all those classical eigenvalue ensembles, and their topological string counterparts, are related one to another via various deformations and specializations, quantum shifts and discrete quotients. We review the solution of the Gaussian models via Macdonald identities, and interpret them as conifold theories. The interpolation between the various models is plainly apparent in this case. For general polynomial potential, we calculate the partition function in the multi-cut phase in a perturbative fashion, beyond tree-level in the large-N limit. The relation to refined topological string orientifolds on the corresponding local geometry is discussed along the way.
Quark ensembles with the infinite correlation length
Zinov'ev, G. M.; Molodtsov, S. V.
2015-01-01
A number of exactly integrable (quark) models of quantum field theory with the infinite correlation length have been considered. It has been shown that the standard vacuum quark ensemble—Dirac sea (in the case of the space-time dimension higher than three)—is unstable because of the strong degeneracy of a state, which is due to the character of the energy distribution. When the momentum cutoff parameter tends to infinity, the distribution becomes infinitely narrow, leading to large (unlimited) fluctuations. Various vacuum ensembles—Dirac sea, neutral ensemble, color superconductor, and BCS state—have been compared. In the case of the color interaction between quarks, the BCS state has been certainly chosen as the ground state of the quark ensemble.
Quark ensembles with the infinite correlation length
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zinov’ev, G. M.; Molodtsov, S. V.
2015-01-01
A number of exactly integrable (quark) models of quantum field theory with the infinite correlation length have been considered. It has been shown that the standard vacuum quark ensemble—Dirac sea (in the case of the space-time dimension higher than three)—is unstable because of the strong degeneracy of a state, which is due to the character of the energy distribution. When the momentum cutoff parameter tends to infinity, the distribution becomes infinitely narrow, leading to large (unlimited) fluctuations. Various vacuum ensembles—Dirac sea, neutral ensemble, color superconductor, and BCS state—have been compared. In the case of the color interaction between quarks, the BCS state has been certainly chosen as the ground state of the quark ensemble
Quark ensembles with the infinite correlation length
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zinov’ev, G. M. [National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Bogoliubov Institute for Theoretical Physics (Ukraine); Molodtsov, S. V., E-mail: molodtsov@itep.ru [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (Russian Federation)
2015-01-15
A number of exactly integrable (quark) models of quantum field theory with the infinite correlation length have been considered. It has been shown that the standard vacuum quark ensemble—Dirac sea (in the case of the space-time dimension higher than three)—is unstable because of the strong degeneracy of a state, which is due to the character of the energy distribution. When the momentum cutoff parameter tends to infinity, the distribution becomes infinitely narrow, leading to large (unlimited) fluctuations. Various vacuum ensembles—Dirac sea, neutral ensemble, color superconductor, and BCS state—have been compared. In the case of the color interaction between quarks, the BCS state has been certainly chosen as the ground state of the quark ensemble.
Various multistage ensembles for prediction of heating energy consumption
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Radisa Jovanovic
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Feedforward neural network models are created for prediction of daily heating energy consumption of a NTNU university campus Gloshaugen using actual measured data for training and testing. Improvement of prediction accuracy is proposed by using neural network ensemble. Previously trained feed-forward neural networks are first separated into clusters, using k-means algorithm, and then the best network of each cluster is chosen as member of an ensemble. Two conventional averaging methods for obtaining ensemble output are applied; simple and weighted. In order to achieve better prediction results, multistage ensemble is investigated. As second level, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with various clustering and membership functions are used to aggregate the selected ensemble members. Feedforward neural network in second stage is also analyzed. It is shown that using ensemble of neural networks can predict heating energy consumption with better accuracy than the best trained single neural network, while the best results are achieved with multistage ensemble.
Online Learning of Commission Avoidant Portfolio Ensembles
Uziel, Guy; El-Yaniv, Ran
2016-01-01
We present a novel online ensemble learning strategy for portfolio selection. The new strategy controls and exploits any set of commission-oblivious portfolio selection algorithms. The strategy handles transaction costs using a novel commission avoidance mechanism. We prove a logarithmic regret bound for our strategy with respect to optimal mixtures of the base algorithms. Numerical examples validate the viability of our method and show significant improvement over the state-of-the-art.
Modeling Coordination Problems in a Music Ensemble
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Frimodt-Møller, Søren R.
2008-01-01
This paper considers in general terms, how musicians are able to coordinate through rational choices in a situation of (temporary) doubt in an ensemble performance. A fictitious example involving a 5-bar development in an unknown piece of music is analyzed in terms of epistemic logic, more...... to coordinate. Such coordination can be described in terms of Michael Bacharach's theory of variable frames as an aid to solve game theoretic coordination problems....
Microcanonical ensemble formulation of lattice gauge theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Callaway, D.J.E.; Rahman, A.
1982-01-01
A new formulation of lattice gauge theory without explicit path integrals or sums is obtained by using the microcanonical ensemble of statistical mechanics. Expectation values in the new formalism are calculated by solving a large set of coupled, nonlinear, ordinary differential equations. The average plaquette for compact electrodynamics calculated in this fashion agrees with standard Monte Carlo results. Possible advantages of the microcanonical method in applications to fermionic systems are discussed
Ensemble forecasts of road surface temperatures
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Sokol, Zbyněk; Bližňák, Vojtěch; Sedlák, Pavel; Zacharov, Petr, jr.; Pešice, Petr; Škuthan, M.
2017-01-01
Roč. 187, 1 May (2017), s. 33-41 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-34856S; GA TA ČR(CZ) TA01031509 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : ensemble prediction * road surface temperature * road weather forecast Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 3.778, year: 2016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809516307311
Microcanonical ensemble extensive thermodynamics of Tsallis statistics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parvan, A.S.
2005-01-01
The microscopic foundation of the generalized equilibrium statistical mechanics based on the Tsallis entropy is given by using the Gibbs idea of statistical ensembles of the classical and quantum mechanics.The equilibrium distribution functions are derived by the thermodynamic method based upon the use of the fundamental equation of thermodynamics and the statistical definition of the functions of the state of the system. It is shown that if the entropic index ξ = 1/q - 1 in the microcanonical ensemble is an extensive variable of the state of the system, then in the thermodynamic limit z bar = 1/(q - 1)N = const the principle of additivity and the zero law of thermodynamics are satisfied. In particular, the Tsallis entropy of the system is extensive and the temperature is intensive. Thus, the Tsallis statistics completely satisfies all the postulates of the equilibrium thermodynamics. Moreover, evaluation of the thermodynamic identities in the microcanonical ensemble is provided by the Euler theorem. The principle of additivity and the Euler theorem are explicitly proved by using the illustration of the classical microcanonical ideal gas in the thermodynamic limit
Modeling polydispersive ensembles of diamond nanoparticles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barnard, Amanda S
2013-01-01
While significant progress has been made toward production of monodispersed samples of a variety of nanoparticles, in cases such as diamond nanoparticles (nanodiamonds) a significant degree of polydispersivity persists, so scaling-up of laboratory applications to industrial levels has its challenges. In many cases, however, monodispersivity is not essential for reliable application, provided that the inevitable uncertainties are just as predictable as the functional properties. As computational methods of materials design are becoming more widespread, there is a growing need for robust methods for modeling ensembles of nanoparticles, that capture the structural complexity characteristic of real specimens. In this paper we present a simple statistical approach to modeling of ensembles of nanoparticles, and apply it to nanodiamond, based on sets of individual simulations that have been carefully selected to describe specific structural sources that are responsible for scattering of fundamental properties, and that are typically difficult to eliminate experimentally. For the purposes of demonstration we show how scattering in the Fermi energy and the electronic band gap are related to different structural variations (sources), and how these results can be combined strategically to yield statistically significant predictions of the properties of an entire ensemble of nanodiamonds, rather than merely one individual ‘model’ particle or a non-representative sub-set. (paper)
Ensemble Clustering using Semidefinite Programming with Applications.
Singh, Vikas; Mukherjee, Lopamudra; Peng, Jiming; Xu, Jinhui
2010-05-01
In this paper, we study the ensemble clustering problem, where the input is in the form of multiple clustering solutions. The goal of ensemble clustering algorithms is to aggregate the solutions into one solution that maximizes the agreement in the input ensemble. We obtain several new results for this problem. Specifically, we show that the notion of agreement under such circumstances can be better captured using a 2D string encoding rather than a voting strategy, which is common among existing approaches. Our optimization proceeds by first constructing a non-linear objective function which is then transformed into a 0-1 Semidefinite program (SDP) using novel convexification techniques. This model can be subsequently relaxed to a polynomial time solvable SDP. In addition to the theoretical contributions, our experimental results on standard machine learning and synthetic datasets show that this approach leads to improvements not only in terms of the proposed agreement measure but also the existing agreement measures based on voting strategies. In addition, we identify several new application scenarios for this problem. These include combining multiple image segmentations and generating tissue maps from multiple-channel Diffusion Tensor brain images to identify the underlying structure of the brain.
Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering
Roh, S.
2015-12-03
In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (element-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables that exist at the same locations has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.
Decimated Input Ensembles for Improved Generalization
Tumer, Kagan; Oza, Nikunj C.; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)
1999-01-01
Recently, many researchers have demonstrated that using classifier ensembles (e.g., averaging the outputs of multiple classifiers before reaching a classification decision) leads to improved performance for many difficult generalization problems. However, in many domains there are serious impediments to such "turnkey" classification accuracy improvements. Most notable among these is the deleterious effect of highly correlated classifiers on the ensemble performance. One particular solution to this problem is generating "new" training sets by sampling the original one. However, with finite number of patterns, this causes a reduction in the training patterns each classifier sees, often resulting in considerably worsened generalization performance (particularly for high dimensional data domains) for each individual classifier. Generally, this drop in the accuracy of the individual classifier performance more than offsets any potential gains due to combining, unless diversity among classifiers is actively promoted. In this work, we introduce a method that: (1) reduces the correlation among the classifiers; (2) reduces the dimensionality of the data, thus lessening the impact of the 'curse of dimensionality'; and (3) improves the classification performance of the ensemble.
Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering
Roh, S.
2015-05-08
In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (entry-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.
Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering
Roh, S.; Jun, M.; Szunyogh, I.; Genton, M. G.
2015-12-01
In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (element-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables that exist at the same locations has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.
Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering
Roh, S.; Jun, M.; Szunyogh, I.; Genton, Marc G.
2015-01-01
In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (entry-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.
Microcanonical ensemble extensive thermodynamics of Tsallis statistics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parvan, A.S.
2006-01-01
The microscopic foundation of the generalized equilibrium statistical mechanics based on the Tsallis entropy is given by using the Gibbs idea of statistical ensembles of the classical and quantum mechanics. The equilibrium distribution functions are derived by the thermodynamic method based upon the use of the fundamental equation of thermodynamics and the statistical definition of the functions of the state of the system. It is shown that if the entropic index ξ=1/(q-1) in the microcanonical ensemble is an extensive variable of the state of the system, then in the thermodynamic limit z-bar =1/(q-1)N=const the principle of additivity and the zero law of thermodynamics are satisfied. In particular, the Tsallis entropy of the system is extensive and the temperature is intensive. Thus, the Tsallis statistics completely satisfies all the postulates of the equilibrium thermodynamics. Moreover, evaluation of the thermodynamic identities in the microcanonical ensemble is provided by the Euler theorem. The principle of additivity and the Euler theorem are explicitly proved by using the illustration of the classical microcanonical ideal gas in the thermodynamic limit
EnsembleGraph: Interactive Visual Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Behavior for Ensemble Simulation Data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shu, Qingya; Guo, Hanqi; Che, Limei; Yuan, Xiaoru; Liu, Junfeng; Liang, Jie
2016-04-19
We present a novel visualization framework—EnsembleGraph— for analyzing ensemble simulation data, in order to help scientists understand behavior similarities between ensemble members over space and time. A graph-based representation is used to visualize individual spatiotemporal regions with similar behaviors, which are extracted by hierarchical clustering algorithms. A user interface with multiple-linked views is provided, which enables users to explore, locate, and compare regions that have similar behaviors between and then users can investigate and analyze the selected regions in detail. The driving application of this paper is the studies on regional emission influences over tropospheric ozone, which is based on ensemble simulations conducted with different anthropogenic emission absences using the MOZART-4 (model of ozone and related tracers, version 4) model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by visualizing the MOZART-4 ensemble simulation data and evaluating the relative regional emission influences on tropospheric ozone concentrations. Positive feedbacks from domain experts and two case studies prove efficiency of our method.
Monthly ENSO Forecast Skill and Lagged Ensemble Size
Trenary, L.; DelSole, T.; Tippett, M. K.; Pegion, K.
2018-04-01
The mean square error (MSE) of a lagged ensemble of monthly forecasts of the Niño 3.4 index from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) is examined with respect to ensemble size and configuration. Although the real-time forecast is initialized 4 times per day, it is possible to infer the MSE for arbitrary initialization frequency and for burst ensembles by fitting error covariances to a parametric model and then extrapolating to arbitrary ensemble size and initialization frequency. Applying this method to real-time forecasts, we find that the MSE consistently reaches a minimum for a lagged ensemble size between one and eight days, when four initializations per day are included. This ensemble size is consistent with the 8-10 day lagged ensemble configuration used operationally. Interestingly, the skill of both ensemble configurations is close to the estimated skill of the infinite ensemble. The skill of the weighted, lagged, and burst ensembles are found to be comparable. Certain unphysical features of the estimated error growth were tracked down to problems with the climatology and data discontinuities.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Heppelmann, Tobias; Theis, Susanne E.
2016-01-01
the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error. The new...... approach, called d-ECC, is applied to wind forecasts from the high resolution ensemble system COSMO-DE-EPS run operationally at the German weather service. Scenarios generated by ECC and d-ECC are compared and assessed in the form of time series by means of multivariate verification tools and in a product...
Music Links--A Music Ensemble Outreach Programme for Schools
Chong, Sylvia
2011-01-01
Professional music communities have realized that if they do not promote their art forms among the youth of today, the future of their music may be in question. Many local ethnic music groups have recognized the need to make the first move and go out to the audiences of the future and bring their brand of music to these audiences. Their task is to…
Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation in Reservoir Characterization: A Review
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Seungpil Jung
2018-02-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a review of ensemble-based data assimilation for strongly nonlinear problems on the characterization of heterogeneous reservoirs with different production histories. It concentrates on ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF and ensemble smoother (ES as representative frameworks, discusses their pros and cons, and investigates recent progress to overcome their drawbacks. The typical weaknesses of ensemble-based methods are non-Gaussian parameters, improper prior ensembles and finite population size. Three categorized approaches, to mitigate these limitations, are reviewed with recent accomplishments; improvement of Kalman gains, add-on of transformation functions, and independent evaluation of observed data. The data assimilation in heterogeneous reservoirs, applying the improved ensemble methods, is discussed on predicting unknown dynamic data in reservoir characterization.
Supersymmetry applied to the spectrum edge of random matrix ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Andreev, A.V.; Simons, B.D.; Taniguchi, N.
1994-01-01
A new matrix ensemble has recently been proposed to describe the transport properties in mesoscopic quantum wires. Both analytical and numerical studies have shown that the ensemble of Laguerre or of chiral random matrices provides a good description of scattering properties in this class of systems. Until now only conventional methods of random matrix theory have been used to study statistical properties within this ensemble. We demonstrate that the supersymmetry method, already employed in the study Dyson ensembles, can be extended to treat this class of random matrix ensembles. In developing this approach we investigate both new, as well as verify known statistical measures. Although we focus on ensembles in which T-invariance is violated our approach lays the foundation for future studies of T-invariant systems. ((orig.))
Bioactive focus in conformational ensembles: a pluralistic approach
Habgood, Matthew
2017-12-01
Computational generation of conformational ensembles is key to contemporary drug design. Selecting the members of the ensemble that will approximate the conformation most likely to bind to a desired target (the bioactive conformation) is difficult, given that the potential energy usually used to generate and rank the ensemble is a notoriously poor discriminator between bioactive and non-bioactive conformations. In this study an approach to generating a focused ensemble is proposed in which each conformation is assigned multiple rankings based not just on potential energy but also on solvation energy, hydrophobic or hydrophilic interaction energy, radius of gyration, and on a statistical potential derived from Cambridge Structural Database data. The best ranked structures derived from each system are then assembled into a new ensemble that is shown to be better focused on bioactive conformations. This pluralistic approach is tested on ensembles generated by the Molecular Operating Environment's Low Mode Molecular Dynamics module, and by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre's conformation generator software.
Grand Canonical Ensembles in General Relativity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Klein, David; Yang, Wei-Shih
2012-01-01
We develop a formalism for general relativistic, grand canonical ensembles in space-times with timelike Killing fields. Using that, we derive ideal gas laws, and show how they depend on the geometry of the particular space-times. A systematic method for calculating Newtonian limits is given for a class of these space-times, which is illustrated for Kerr space-time. In addition, we prove uniqueness of the infinite volume Gibbs measure, and absence of phase transitions for a class of interaction potentials in anti-de Sitter space.
A Lagrangian formalism for nonequilibrium ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sobouti, Y.
1989-08-01
It is suggested to formulate a nonequilibrium ensemble theory by maximizing a time-integrated entropy constrained by Liouville's equation. This leads to distribution functions of the form f = Z -1 exp(-g/kT), where g(p,q,t) is a solution of Liouville's equation. A further requirement that the entropy should be an additivie functional of the integrals of Liouville's equation, limits the choice of g to linear superpositions of the nonlinearly independent integrals of motion. Time-dependent and time-independent integrals may participate in this superposition. (author). 14 refs
Extension of the GHJW theorem for operator ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Choi, Jeong Woon; Hong, Dowon; Chang, Ku-Young; Chi, Dong Pyo; Lee, Soojoon
2011-01-01
The Gisin-Hughston-Jozsa-Wootters theorem plays an important role in analyzing various theories about quantum information, quantum communication, and quantum cryptography. It means that any purifications on the extended system which yield indistinguishable state ensembles on their subsystem should have a specific local unitary relation. In this Letter, we show that the local relation is also established even when the indistinguishability of state ensembles is extended to that of operator ensembles.
Gridded Calibration of Ensemble Wind Vector Forecasts Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics
Lazarus, S. M.; Holman, B. P.; Splitt, M. E.
2017-12-01
A computationally efficient method is developed that performs gridded post processing of ensemble wind vector forecasts. An expansive set of idealized WRF model simulations are generated to provide physically consistent high resolution winds over a coastal domain characterized by an intricate land / water mask. Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is used to calibrate the ensemble wind vector forecasts at observation locations. The local EMOS predictive parameters (mean and variance) are then spread throughout the grid utilizing flow-dependent statistical relationships extracted from the downscaled WRF winds. Using data withdrawal and 28 east central Florida stations, the method is applied to one year of 24 h wind forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Compared to the raw GEFS, the approach improves both the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill. Analysis of multivariate rank histograms indicate the post processed forecasts are calibrated. Two downscaling case studies are presented, a quiescent easterly flow event and a frontal passage. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach are presented and discussed.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Man, Jun [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Zhang, Jiangjiang [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Li, Weixuan [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zeng, Lingzao [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Wu, Laosheng [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside California USA
2016-10-01
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees of freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. The effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.
Convergence of the Square Root Ensemble Kalman Filter in the Large Ensemble Limit
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kwiatkowski, E.; Mandel, Jan
2015-01-01
Roč. 3, č. 1 (2015), s. 1-17 ISSN 2166-2525 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-34856S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : data assimilation * Lp laws of large numbers * Hilbert space * ensemble Kalman filter Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science
New technique for ensemble dressing combining Multimodel SuperEnsemble and precipitation PDF
Cane, D.; Milelli, M.
2009-09-01
The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique (Krishnamurti et al., Science 285, 1548-1550, 1999) is a postprocessing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing direct model output errors. It differs from other ensemble analysis techniques by the use of an adequate weighting of the input forecast models to obtain a combined estimation of meteorological parameters. Weights are calculated by least-square minimization of the difference between the model and the observed field during a so-called training period. Although it can be applied successfully on the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed and mean sea level pressure (Cane and Milelli, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 15, 2, 2006), the Multimodel SuperEnsemble gives good results also when applied on the precipitation, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods. Here we present our methodology for the Multimodel precipitation forecasts applied on a wide spectrum of results over Piemonte very dense non-GTS weather station network. We will focus particularly on an accurate statistical method for bias correction and on the ensemble dressing in agreement with the observed precipitation forecast-conditioned PDF. Acknowledgement: this work is supported by the Italian Civil Defence Department.
Ensemble-based forecasting at Horns Rev: Ensemble conversion and kernel dressing
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik
. The obtained ensemble forecasts of wind power are then converted into predictive distributions with an original adaptive kernel dressing method. The shape of the kernels is driven by a mean-variance model, the parameters of which are recursively estimated in order to maximize the overall skill of obtained...
Encoding of Spatial Attention by Primate Prefrontal Cortex Neuronal Ensembles
Treue, Stefan
2018-01-01
Abstract Single neurons in the primate lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) encode information about the allocation of visual attention and the features of visual stimuli. However, how this compares to the performance of neuronal ensembles at encoding the same information is poorly understood. Here, we recorded the responses of neuronal ensembles in the LPFC of two macaque monkeys while they performed a task that required attending to one of two moving random dot patterns positioned in different hemifields and ignoring the other pattern. We found single units selective for the location of the attended stimulus as well as for its motion direction. To determine the coding of both variables in the population of recorded units, we used a linear classifier and progressively built neuronal ensembles by iteratively adding units according to their individual performance (best single units), or by iteratively adding units based on their contribution to the ensemble performance (best ensemble). For both methods, ensembles of relatively small sizes (n decoding performance relative to individual single units. However, the decoder reached similar performance using fewer neurons with the best ensemble building method compared with the best single units method. Our results indicate that neuronal ensembles within the LPFC encode more information about the attended spatial and nonspatial features of visual stimuli than individual neurons. They further suggest that efficient coding of attention can be achieved by relatively small neuronal ensembles characterized by a certain relationship between signal and noise correlation structures. PMID:29568798
Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting
Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen
2015-12-01
We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.
Design ensemble machine learning model for breast cancer diagnosis.
Hsieh, Sheau-Ling; Hsieh, Sung-Huai; Cheng, Po-Hsun; Chen, Chi-Huang; Hsu, Kai-Ping; Lee, I-Shun; Wang, Zhenyu; Lai, Feipei
2012-10-01
In this paper, we classify the breast cancer of medical diagnostic data. Information gain has been adapted for feature selections. Neural fuzzy (NF), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), quadratic classifier (QC), each single model scheme as well as their associated, ensemble ones have been developed for classifications. In addition, a combined ensemble model with these three schemes has been constructed for further validations. The experimental results indicate that the ensemble learning performs better than individual single ones. Moreover, the combined ensemble model illustrates the highest accuracy of classifications for the breast cancer among all models.
Ensemble atmospheric dispersion calculations for decision support systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Borysiewicz, M.; Potempski, S.; Galkowski, A.; Zelazny, R.
2003-01-01
This document describes two approaches to long-range atmospheric dispersion of pollutants based on the ensemble concept. In the first part of the report some experiences related to the exercises undertaken under the ENSEMBLE project of the European Union are presented. The second part is devoted to the implementation of mesoscale numerical prediction models RAMS and atmospheric dispersion model HYPACT on Beowulf cluster and theirs usage for ensemble forecasting and long range atmospheric ensemble dispersion calculations based on available meteorological data from NCEO, NOAA (USA). (author)
Wang, Wei
2018-05-11
Android platform has dominated the Operating System of mobile devices. However, the dramatic increase of Android malicious applications (malapps) has caused serious software failures to Android system and posed a great threat to users. The effective detection of Android malapps has thus become an emerging yet crucial issue. Characterizing the behaviors of Android applications (apps) is essential to detecting malapps. Most existing work on detecting Android malapps was mainly based on string static features such as permissions and API usage extracted from apps. There also exists work on the detection of Android malapps with structural features, such as Control Flow Graph (CFG) and Data Flow Graph (DFG). As Android malapps have become increasingly polymorphic and sophisticated, using only one type of static features may result in false negatives. In this work, we propose DroidEnsemble that takes advantages of both string features and structural features to systematically and comprehensively characterize the static behaviors of Android apps and thus build a more accurate detection model for the detection of Android malapps. We extract each app’s string features, including permissions, hardware features, filter intents, restricted API calls, used permissions, code patterns, as well as structural features like function call graph. We then use three machine learning algorithms, namely, Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) and Random Forest (RF), to evaluate the performance of these two types of features and of their ensemble. In the experiments, We evaluate our methods and models with 1386 benign apps and 1296 malapps. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of DroidEnsemble. It achieves the detection accuracy as 95.8% with only string features and as 90.68% with only structural features. DroidEnsemble reaches the detection accuracy as 98.4% with the ensemble of both types of features, reducing 9 false positives and 12 false
Cluster Ensemble-Based Image Segmentation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaoru Wang
2013-07-01
Full Text Available Image segmentation is the foundation of computer vision applications. In this paper, we propose a new cluster ensemble-based image segmentation algorithm, which overcomes several problems of traditional methods. We make two main contributions in this paper. First, we introduce the cluster ensemble concept to fuse the segmentation results from different types of visual features effectively, which can deliver a better final result and achieve a much more stable performance for broad categories of images. Second, we exploit the PageRank idea from Internet applications and apply it to the image segmentation task. This can improve the final segmentation results by combining the spatial information of the image and the semantic similarity of regions. Our experiments on four public image databases validate the superiority of our algorithm over conventional single type of feature or multiple types of features-based algorithms, since our algorithm can fuse multiple types of features effectively for better segmentation results. Moreover, our method is also proved to be very competitive in comparison with other state-of-the-art segmentation algorithms.
Nanobiosensing with Arrays and Ensembles of Nanoelectrodes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Najmeh Karimian
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Since the first reports dating back to the mid-1990s, ensembles and arrays of nanoelectrodes (NEEs and NEAs, respectively have gained an important role as advanced electroanalytical tools thank to their unique characteristics which include, among others, dramatically improved signal/noise ratios, enhanced mass transport and suitability for extreme miniaturization. From the year 2000 onward, these properties have been exploited to develop electrochemical biosensors in which the surfaces of NEEs/NEAs have been functionalized with biorecognition layers using immobilization modes able to take the maximum advantage from the special morphology and composite nature of their surface. This paper presents an updated overview of this field. It consists of two parts. In the first, we discuss nanofabrication methods and the principles of functioning of NEEs/NEAs, focusing, in particular, on those features which are important for the development of highly sensitive and miniaturized biosensors. In the second part, we review literature references dealing the bioanalytical and biosensing applications of sensors based on biofunctionalized arrays/ensembles of nanoelectrodes, focusing our attention on the most recent advances, published in the last five years. The goal of this review is both to furnish fundamental knowledge to researchers starting their activity in this field and provide critical information on recent achievements which can stimulate new ideas for future developments to experienced scientists.
Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging
Luo, X.
2012-10-03
Covariance inflation and localisation are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) by (in effect) adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work, an additional auxiliary technique, called residual nudging, is proposed to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the residual norms of state estimates in the observation space. In an EnKF with residual nudging, if the residual norm of an analysis is larger than a pre-specified value, then the analysis is replaced by a new one whose residual norm is no larger than a pre-specified value. Otherwise, the analysis is considered as a reasonable estimate and no change is made. A rule for choosing the pre-specified value is suggested. Based on this rule, the corresponding new state estimates are explicitly derived in case of linear observations. Numerical experiments in the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model show that introducing residual nudging to an EnKF may improve its accuracy and/or enhance its stability against filter divergence, especially in the small ensemble scenario.
Deterministic Mean-Field Ensemble Kalman Filtering
Law, Kody
2016-05-03
The proof of convergence of the standard ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) from Le Gland, Monbet, and Tran [Large sample asymptotics for the ensemble Kalman filter, in The Oxford Handbook of Nonlinear Filtering, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 2011, pp. 598--631] is extended to non-Gaussian state-space models. A density-based deterministic approximation of the mean-field limit EnKF (DMFEnKF) is proposed, consisting of a PDE solver and a quadrature rule. Given a certain minimal order of convergence k between the two, this extends to the deterministic filter approximation, which is therefore asymptotically superior to standard EnKF for dimension d<2k. The fidelity of approximation of the true distribution is also established using an extension of the total variation metric to random measures. This is limited by a Gaussian bias term arising from nonlinearity/non-Gaussianity of the model, which arises in both deterministic and standard EnKF. Numerical results support and extend the theory.
Online cross-validation-based ensemble learning.
Benkeser, David; Ju, Cheng; Lendle, Sam; van der Laan, Mark
2018-01-30
Online estimators update a current estimate with a new incoming batch of data without having to revisit past data thereby providing streaming estimates that are scalable to big data. We develop flexible, ensemble-based online estimators of an infinite-dimensional target parameter, such as a regression function, in the setting where data are generated sequentially by a common conditional data distribution given summary measures of the past. This setting encompasses a wide range of time-series models and, as special case, models for independent and identically distributed data. Our estimator considers a large library of candidate online estimators and uses online cross-validation to identify the algorithm with the best performance. We show that by basing estimates on the cross-validation-selected algorithm, we are asymptotically guaranteed to perform as well as the true, unknown best-performing algorithm. We provide extensions of this approach including online estimation of the optimal ensemble of candidate online estimators. We illustrate excellent performance of our methods using simulations and a real data example where we make streaming predictions of infectious disease incidence using data from a large database. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Performance Analysis of Local Ensemble Kalman Filter
Tong, Xin T.
2018-03-01
Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is an important data assimilation method for high-dimensional geophysical systems. Efficient implementation of EnKF in practice often involves the localization technique, which updates each component using only information within a local radius. This paper rigorously analyzes the local EnKF (LEnKF) for linear systems and shows that the filter error can be dominated by the ensemble covariance, as long as (1) the sample size exceeds the logarithmic of state dimension and a constant that depends only on the local radius; (2) the forecast covariance matrix admits a stable localized structure. In particular, this indicates that with small system and observation noises, the filter error will be accurate in long time even if the initialization is not. The analysis also reveals an intrinsic inconsistency caused by the localization technique, and a stable localized structure is necessary to control this inconsistency. While this structure is usually taken for granted for the operation of LEnKF, it can also be rigorously proved for linear systems with sparse local observations and weak local interactions. These theoretical results are also validated by numerical implementation of LEnKF on a simple stochastic turbulence in two dynamical regimes.
Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaodong Luo
2012-10-01
Full Text Available Covariance inflation and localisation are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF by (in effect adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work, an additional auxiliary technique, called residual nudging, is proposed to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the residual norms of state estimates in the observation space. In an EnKF with residual nudging, if the residual norm of an analysis is larger than a pre-specified value, then the analysis is replaced by a new one whose residual norm is no larger than a pre-specified value. Otherwise, the analysis is considered as a reasonable estimate and no change is made. A rule for choosing the pre-specified value is suggested. Based on this rule, the corresponding new state estimates are explicitly derived in case of linear observations. Numerical experiments in the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model show that introducing residual nudging to an EnKF may improve its accuracy and/or enhance its stability against filter divergence, especially in the small ensemble scenario.
Deterministic Mean-Field Ensemble Kalman Filtering
Law, Kody; Tembine, Hamidou; Tempone, Raul
2016-01-01
The proof of convergence of the standard ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) from Le Gland, Monbet, and Tran [Large sample asymptotics for the ensemble Kalman filter, in The Oxford Handbook of Nonlinear Filtering, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 2011, pp. 598--631] is extended to non-Gaussian state-space models. A density-based deterministic approximation of the mean-field limit EnKF (DMFEnKF) is proposed, consisting of a PDE solver and a quadrature rule. Given a certain minimal order of convergence k between the two, this extends to the deterministic filter approximation, which is therefore asymptotically superior to standard EnKF for dimension d<2k. The fidelity of approximation of the true distribution is also established using an extension of the total variation metric to random measures. This is limited by a Gaussian bias term arising from nonlinearity/non-Gaussianity of the model, which arises in both deterministic and standard EnKF. Numerical results support and extend the theory.
Crossover ensembles of random matrices and skew-orthogonal polynomials
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kumar, Santosh; Pandey, Akhilesh
2011-01-01
Highlights: → We study crossover ensembles of Jacobi family of random matrices. → We consider correlations for orthogonal-unitary and symplectic-unitary crossovers. → We use the method of skew-orthogonal polynomials and quaternion determinants. → We prove universality of spectral correlations in crossover ensembles. → We discuss applications to quantum conductance and communication theory problems. - Abstract: In a recent paper (S. Kumar, A. Pandey, Phys. Rev. E, 79, 2009, p. 026211) we considered Jacobi family (including Laguerre and Gaussian cases) of random matrix ensembles and reported exact solutions of crossover problems involving time-reversal symmetry breaking. In the present paper we give details of the work. We start with Dyson's Brownian motion description of random matrix ensembles and obtain universal hierarchic relations among the unfolded correlation functions. For arbitrary dimensions we derive the joint probability density (jpd) of eigenvalues for all transitions leading to unitary ensembles as equilibrium ensembles. We focus on the orthogonal-unitary and symplectic-unitary crossovers and give generic expressions for jpd of eigenvalues, two-point kernels and n-level correlation functions. This involves generalization of the theory of skew-orthogonal polynomials to crossover ensembles. We also consider crossovers in the circular ensembles to show the generality of our method. In the large dimensionality limit, correlations in spectra with arbitrary initial density are shown to be universal when expressed in terms of a rescaled symmetry breaking parameter. Applications of our crossover results to communication theory and quantum conductance problems are also briefly discussed.
A Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filters for Storm Surge Assimilation
Altaf, Muhammad
2014-08-01
This study evaluates and compares the performances of several variants of the popular ensembleKalman filter for the assimilation of storm surge data with the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) model. Using meteorological data from Hurricane Ike to force the ADCIRC model on a domain including the Gulf ofMexico coastline, the authors implement and compare the standard stochastic ensembleKalman filter (EnKF) and three deterministic square root EnKFs: the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all of these filters. The results from twin experiments suggest that the square root ensemble filters could lead to very comparable performances with appropriate tuning of inflation and localization, suggesting that practical implementation details are at least as important as the choice of the square root ensemble filter itself. These filters also perform reasonably well with a relatively small ensemble size, whereas the stochastic EnKF requires larger ensemble sizes to provide similar accuracy for forecasts of storm surge.
Conductor and Ensemble Performance Expressivity and State Festival Ratings
Price, Harry E.; Chang, E. Christina
2005-01-01
This study is the second in a series examining the relationship between conducting and ensemble performance. The purpose was to further examine the associations among conductor, ensemble performance expressivity, and festival ratings. Participants were asked to rate the expressivity of video-only conducting and parallel audio-only excerpts from a…
An iterative ensemble Kalman filter for reservoir engineering applications
Krymskaya, M.V.; Hanea, R.G.; Verlaan, M.
2009-01-01
The study has been focused on examining the usage and the applicability of ensemble Kalman filtering techniques to the history matching procedures. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is often applied nowadays to solving such a problem. Meanwhile, traditional EnKF requires assumption of the
Competitive Learning Neural Network Ensemble Weighted by Predicted Performance
Ye, Qiang
2010-01-01
Ensemble approaches have been shown to enhance classification by combining the outputs from a set of voting classifiers. Diversity in error patterns among base classifiers promotes ensemble performance. Multi-task learning is an important characteristic for Neural Network classifiers. Introducing a secondary output unit that receives different…
A Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filters for Storm Surge Assimilation
Altaf, Muhammad; Butler, T.; Mayo, T.; Luo, X.; Dawson, C.; Heemink, A. W.; Hoteit, Ibrahim
2014-01-01
This study evaluates and compares the performances of several variants of the popular ensembleKalman filter for the assimilation of storm surge data with the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) model. Using meteorological data from Hurricane Ike to force the ADCIRC model on a domain including the Gulf ofMexico coastline, the authors implement and compare the standard stochastic ensembleKalman filter (EnKF) and three deterministic square root EnKFs: the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all of these filters. The results from twin experiments suggest that the square root ensemble filters could lead to very comparable performances with appropriate tuning of inflation and localization, suggesting that practical implementation details are at least as important as the choice of the square root ensemble filter itself. These filters also perform reasonably well with a relatively small ensemble size, whereas the stochastic EnKF requires larger ensemble sizes to provide similar accuracy for forecasts of storm surge.
Ensemble dispersion forecasting - Part 2. Application and evaluation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Galmarini, S.; Bianconi, R.; Addis, R.
2004-01-01
of the dispersion of ETEX release 1 and the model ensemble is compared with the monitoring data. The scope of the comparison is to estimate to what extent the ensemble analysis is an improvement with respect to the single model results and represents a superior analysis of the process evolution. (C) 2004 Elsevier...
Adaptive calibration of (u,v)‐wind ensemble forecasts
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pinson, Pierre
2012-01-01
of sufficient reliability. The original framework introduced here allows for an adaptive bivariate calibration of these ensemble forecasts. The originality of this methodology lies in the fact that calibrated ensembles still consist of a set of (space–time) trajectories, after translation and dilation...... of translation and dilation factors are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society...
Ensemble-based Probabilistic Forecasting at Horns Rev
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik
2009-01-01
forecasting methodology. In a first stage, ensemble forecasts of meteorological variables are converted to power through a suitable power curve model. This modelemploys local polynomial regression, and is adoptively estimated with an orthogonal fitting method. The obtained ensemble forecasts of wind power...
Programming in the Zone: Repertoire Selection for the Large Ensemble
Hopkins, Michael
2013-01-01
One of the great challenges ensemble directors face is selecting high-quality repertoire that matches the musical and technical levels of their ensembles. Thoughtful repertoire selection can lead to increased student motivation as well as greater enthusiasm for the music program from parents, administrators, teachers, and community members. Common…
Probabilistic Determination of Native State Ensembles of Proteins
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Olsson, Simon; Vögeli, Beat Rolf; Cavalli, Andrea
2014-01-01
ensembles of proteins by the combination of physical force fields and experimental data through modern statistical methodology. As an example, we use NMR residual dipolar couplings to determine a native state ensemble of the extensively studied third immunoglobulin binding domain of protein G (GB3...
Modality-Driven Classification and Visualization of Ensemble Variance
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bensema, Kevin; Gosink, Luke; Obermaier, Harald; Joy, Kenneth I.
2016-10-01
Advances in computational power now enable domain scientists to address conceptual and parametric uncertainty by running simulations multiple times in order to sufficiently sample the uncertain input space. While this approach helps address conceptual and parametric uncertainties, the ensemble datasets produced by this technique present a special challenge to visualization researchers as the ensemble dataset records a distribution of possible values for each location in the domain. Contemporary visualization approaches that rely solely on summary statistics (e.g., mean and variance) cannot convey the detailed information encoded in ensemble distributions that are paramount to ensemble analysis; summary statistics provide no information about modality classification and modality persistence. To address this problem, we propose a novel technique that classifies high-variance locations based on the modality of the distribution of ensemble predictions. Additionally, we develop a set of confidence metrics to inform the end-user of the quality of fit between the distribution at a given location and its assigned class. We apply a similar method to time-varying ensembles to illustrate the relationship between peak variance and bimodal or multimodal behavior. These classification schemes enable a deeper understanding of the behavior of the ensemble members by distinguishing between distributions that can be described by a single tendency and distributions which reflect divergent trends in the ensemble.
An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. AghaKouchak
2013-02-01
Full Text Available This paper presents the hands-on modeling toolbox, HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures, to teach hydrological processes and their uncertainties. The HBV-Ensemble can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemble simulation and model sensitivity. HBV-Ensemble was administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of uncertainty in hydrological modeling.
Ensemble inequivalence: Landau theory and the ABC model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cohen, O; Mukamel, D
2012-01-01
It is well known that systems with long-range interactions may exhibit different phase diagrams when studied within two different ensembles. In many of the previously studied examples of ensemble inequivalence, the phase diagrams differ only when the transition in one of the ensembles is first order. By contrast, in a recent study of a generalized ABC model, the canonical and grand-canonical ensembles of the model were shown to differ even when they both exhibit a continuous transition. Here we show that the order of the transition where ensemble inequivalence may occur is related to the symmetry properties of the order parameter associated with the transition. This is done by analyzing the Landau expansion of a generic model with long-range interactions. The conclusions drawn from the generic analysis are demonstrated for the ABC model by explicit calculation of its Landau expansion. (paper)
Nonlocal inhomogeneous broadening in plasmonic nanoparticle ensembles
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tserkezis, Christos; Maack, Johan Rosenkrantz; Liu, Z.
Nonclassical effects are increasingly more relevant in plasmonics as modern nanofabrication techniques rapidly approach the extreme nanoscale limits, for which departing from classical electrodynamics becomes important. One of the largest-scale necessary corrections towards this direction...... is to abandon the local response approximation (LRA) and take the nonlocal response of the metal into account, typically through the simple hydrodynamic Drude model (HDM), which predicts a sizedependent deviation of plasmon modes from the quasistatic (QS) limit. While this behaviour has been explored for simple...... metallic nanoparticles (NPs) or NP dimers, the possibility of inhomogeneous resonance broadening due to size variation in a large NP collection and the resulting spectral overlap of modes (as depicted in Fig. 1), has been so far overlooked. Here we study theoretically the effect of nonlocality on ensemble...
Dynamical Engineering of Interactions in Qudit Ensembles
Choi, Soonwon; Yao, Norman Y.; Lukin, Mikhail D.
2017-11-01
We propose and analyze a method to engineer effective interactions in an ensemble of d -level systems (qudits) driven by global control fields. In particular, we present (i) a necessary and sufficient condition under which a given interaction can be decoupled, (ii) the existence of a universal sequence that decouples any (cancelable) interaction, and (iii) an efficient algorithm to engineer a target Hamiltonian from an initial Hamiltonian (if possible). We illustrate the potential of this method with two examples. Specifically, we present a 6-pulse sequence that decouples effective spin-1 dipolar interactions and demonstrate that a spin-1 Ising chain can be engineered to study transitions among three distinct symmetry protected topological phases. Our work enables new approaches for the realization of both many-body quantum memories and programmable analog quantum simulators using existing experimental platforms.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schultz, Nils Voisin
2014-01-01
Cet article examine les caractères idéologique et affectif de deux essais écrits respectivement par Alain Finkielkraut et Richard Millet sur la crise actuelle du vivre-ensemble en France. Les deux penseurs critiquent la société multiculturelle, mais alors que pour Finkielkraut cette société est une...... chance pour la France à condition que le dialogue interculturel soit renforcé et que l’idée d’une culture française y garde sa place, elle reste pour Millet une impossibilité. L’enjeu de l’analyse est de dévoiler la capacité des discours à générer par l’affectivité une peur capable d’intensifier l’argumentation...
Dynamic principle for ensemble control tools.
Samoletov, A; Vasiev, B
2017-11-28
Dynamical equations describing physical systems in contact with a thermal bath are commonly extended by mathematical tools called "thermostats." These tools are designed for sampling ensembles in statistical mechanics. Here we propose a dynamic principle underlying a range of thermostats which is derived using fundamental laws of statistical physics and ensures invariance of the canonical measure. The principle covers both stochastic and deterministic thermostat schemes. Our method has a clear advantage over a range of proposed and widely used thermostat schemes that are based on formal mathematical reasoning. Following the derivation of the proposed principle, we show its generality and illustrate its applications including design of temperature control tools that differ from the Nosé-Hoover-Langevin scheme.
Global Optimization Ensemble Model for Classification Methods
Anwar, Hina; Qamar, Usman; Muzaffar Qureshi, Abdul Wahab
2014-01-01
Supervised learning is the process of data mining for deducing rules from training datasets. A broad array of supervised learning algorithms exists, every one of them with its own advantages and drawbacks. There are some basic issues that affect the accuracy of classifier while solving a supervised learning problem, like bias-variance tradeoff, dimensionality of input space, and noise in the input data space. All these problems affect the accuracy of classifier and are the reason that there is no global optimal method for classification. There is not any generalized improvement method that can increase the accuracy of any classifier while addressing all the problems stated above. This paper proposes a global optimization ensemble model for classification methods (GMC) that can improve the overall accuracy for supervised learning problems. The experimental results on various public datasets showed that the proposed model improved the accuracy of the classification models from 1% to 30% depending upon the algorithm complexity. PMID:24883382
Global Optimization Ensemble Model for Classification Methods
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hina Anwar
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Supervised learning is the process of data mining for deducing rules from training datasets. A broad array of supervised learning algorithms exists, every one of them with its own advantages and drawbacks. There are some basic issues that affect the accuracy of classifier while solving a supervised learning problem, like bias-variance tradeoff, dimensionality of input space, and noise in the input data space. All these problems affect the accuracy of classifier and are the reason that there is no global optimal method for classification. There is not any generalized improvement method that can increase the accuracy of any classifier while addressing all the problems stated above. This paper proposes a global optimization ensemble model for classification methods (GMC that can improve the overall accuracy for supervised learning problems. The experimental results on various public datasets showed that the proposed model improved the accuracy of the classification models from 1% to 30% depending upon the algorithm complexity.
Uncertainty in dispersion forecasts using meteorological ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chin, H N; Leach, M J
1999-01-01
The usefulness of dispersion forecasts depends on proper interpretation of results. Understanding the uncertainty in model predictions and the range of possible outcomes is critical for determining the optimal course of action in response to terrorist attacks. One of the objectives for the Modeling and Prediction initiative is creating tools for emergency planning for special events such as the upcoming the Olympics. Meteorological forecasts hours to days in advance are used to estimate the dispersion at the time of the event. However, there is uncertainty in any meteorological forecast, arising from both errors in the data (both initial conditions and boundary conditions) and from errors in the model. We use ensemble forecasts to estimate the uncertainty in the forecasts and the range of possible outcomes
Data assimilation the ensemble Kalman filter
Evensen, Geir
2007-01-01
Data Assimilation comprehensively covers data assimilation and inverse methods, including both traditional state estimation and parameter estimation. This text and reference focuses on various popular data assimilation methods, such as weak and strong constraint variational methods and ensemble filters and smoothers. It is demonstrated how the different methods can be derived from a common theoretical basis, as well as how they differ and/or are related to each other, and which properties characterize them, using several examples. Rather than emphasize a particular discipline such as oceanography or meteorology, it presents the mathematical framework and derivations in a way which is common for any discipline where dynamics is merged with measurements. The mathematics level is modest, although it requires knowledge of basic spatial statistics, Bayesian statistics, and calculus of variations. Readers will also appreciate the introduction to the mathematical methods used and detailed derivations, which should b...
Multicomponent ensemble models to forecast induced seismicity
Király-Proag, E.; Gischig, V.; Zechar, J. D.; Wiemer, S.
2018-01-01
In recent years, human-induced seismicity has become a more and more relevant topic due to its economic and social implications. Several models and approaches have been developed to explain underlying physical processes or forecast induced seismicity. They range from simple statistical models to coupled numerical models incorporating complex physics. We advocate the need for forecast testing as currently the best method for ascertaining if models are capable to reasonably accounting for key physical governing processes—or not. Moreover, operational forecast models are of great interest to help on-site decision-making in projects entailing induced earthquakes. We previously introduced a standardized framework following the guidelines of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability, the Induced Seismicity Test Bench, to test, validate, and rank induced seismicity models. In this study, we describe how to construct multicomponent ensemble models based on Bayesian weightings that deliver more accurate forecasts than individual models in the case of Basel 2006 and Soultz-sous-Forêts 2004 enhanced geothermal stimulation projects. For this, we examine five calibrated variants of two significantly different model groups: (1) Shapiro and Smoothed Seismicity based on the seismogenic index, simple modified Omori-law-type seismicity decay, and temporally weighted smoothed seismicity; (2) Hydraulics and Seismicity based on numerically modelled pore pressure evolution that triggers seismicity using the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. We also demonstrate how the individual and ensemble models would perform as part of an operational Adaptive Traffic Light System. Investigating seismicity forecasts based on a range of potential injection scenarios, we use forecast periods of different durations to compute the occurrence probabilities of seismic events M ≥ 3. We show that in the case of the Basel 2006 geothermal stimulation the models forecast hazardous levels
A High-Tech Makeover for School Music
Marowitz, David R.
2011-01-01
Because people today are accustomed to listening to electronic instruments, school music ensembles need to rise to the challenge of reflecting present-day culture by doing a "contemporary makeover". This is all-important if ensembles are to command student respect and attract new members. With a creative mindset and openness to innovation, one can…
Ensemble Bayesian forecasting system Part I: Theory and algorithms
Herr, Henry D.; Krzysztofowicz, Roman
2015-05-01
The ensemble Bayesian forecasting system (EBFS), whose theory was published in 2001, is developed for the purpose of quantifying the total uncertainty about a discrete-time, continuous-state, non-stationary stochastic process such as a time series of stages, discharges, or volumes at a river gauge. The EBFS is built of three components: an input ensemble forecaster (IEF), which simulates the uncertainty associated with random inputs; a deterministic hydrologic model (of any complexity), which simulates physical processes within a river basin; and a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP), which simulates the hydrologic uncertainty (an aggregate of all uncertainties except input). It works as a Monte Carlo simulator: an ensemble of time series of inputs (e.g., precipitation amounts) generated by the IEF is transformed deterministically through a hydrologic model into an ensemble of time series of outputs, which is next transformed stochastically by the HUP into an ensemble of time series of predictands (e.g., river stages). Previous research indicated that in order to attain an acceptable sampling error, the ensemble size must be on the order of hundreds (for probabilistic river stage forecasts and probabilistic flood forecasts) or even thousands (for probabilistic stage transition forecasts). The computing time needed to run the hydrologic model this many times renders the straightforward simulations operationally infeasible. This motivates the development of the ensemble Bayesian forecasting system with randomization (EBFSR), which takes full advantage of the analytic meta-Gaussian HUP and generates multiple ensemble members after each run of the hydrologic model; this auxiliary randomization reduces the required size of the meteorological input ensemble and makes it operationally feasible to generate a Bayesian ensemble forecast of large size. Such a forecast quantifies the total uncertainty, is well calibrated against the prior (climatic) distribution of
Robust Ensemble Filtering and Its Relation to Covariance Inflation in the Ensemble Kalman Filter
Luo, Xiaodong
2011-12-01
A robust ensemble filtering scheme based on the H∞ filtering theory is proposed. The optimal H∞ filter is derived by minimizing the supremum (or maximum) of a predefined cost function, a criterion different from the minimum variance used in the Kalman filter. By design, the H∞ filter is more robust than the Kalman filter, in the sense that the estimation error in the H∞ filter in general has a finite growth rate with respect to the uncertainties in assimilation, except for a special case that corresponds to the Kalman filter. The original form of the H∞ filter contains global constraints in time, which may be inconvenient for sequential data assimilation problems. Therefore a variant is introduced that solves some time-local constraints instead, and hence it is called the time-local H∞ filter (TLHF). By analogy to the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the concept of ensemble time-local H∞ filter (EnTLHF) is also proposed. The general form of the EnTLHF is outlined, and some of its special cases are discussed. In particular, it is shown that an EnKF with certain covariance inflation is essentially an EnTLHF. In this sense, the EnTLHF provides a general framework for conducting covariance inflation in the EnKF-based methods. Some numerical examples are used to assess the relative robustness of the TLHF–EnTLHF in comparison with the corresponding KF–EnKF method.
Wei, Jiangfeng; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Chen, Haishan
2017-10-01
Through a series of model simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to three different land surface models, this study investigates the impacts of land model ensembles and coupled model ensemble on precipitation simulation. It is found that coupling an ensemble of land models to an atmospheric model has a very minor impact on the improvement of precipitation climatology and variability, but a simple ensemble average of the precipitation from three individually coupled land-atmosphere models produces better results, especially for precipitation variability. The generally weak impact of land processes on precipitation should be the main reason that the land model ensembles do not improve precipitation simulation. However, if there are big biases in the land surface model or land surface data set, correcting them could improve the simulated climate, especially for well-constrained regional climate simulations.
Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering
Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.
2017-06-01
Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-term weather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundary condition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models and increased ensemble sizes have improved decadal predictions. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard decadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from ocean ensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean.Plain Language SummaryDecadal predictions aim to predict the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. The ocean memory due to its heat capacity holds big potential skill. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models (incl. atmosphere and ocean) have improved decadal predictions. Ensembles are another important aspect. Applying slightly perturbed predictions to trigger the famous butterfly effect results in an ensemble. Instead of evaluating one prediction, but the whole ensemble with its
An Efficient Ensemble Learning Method for Gene Microarray Classification
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alireza Osareh
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The gene microarray analysis and classification have demonstrated an effective way for the effective diagnosis of diseases and cancers. However, it has been also revealed that the basic classification techniques have intrinsic drawbacks in achieving accurate gene classification and cancer diagnosis. On the other hand, classifier ensembles have received increasing attention in various applications. Here, we address the gene classification issue using RotBoost ensemble methodology. This method is a combination of Rotation Forest and AdaBoost techniques which in turn preserve both desirable features of an ensemble architecture, that is, accuracy and diversity. To select a concise subset of informative genes, 5 different feature selection algorithms are considered. To assess the efficiency of the RotBoost, other nonensemble/ensemble techniques including Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines, Rotation Forest, AdaBoost, and Bagging are also deployed. Experimental results have revealed that the combination of the fast correlation-based feature selection method with ICA-based RotBoost ensemble is highly effective for gene classification. In fact, the proposed method can create ensemble classifiers which outperform not only the classifiers produced by the conventional machine learning but also the classifiers generated by two widely used conventional ensemble learning methods, that is, Bagging and AdaBoost.
Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
N. Herger
2018-02-01
Full Text Available End users studying impacts and risks caused by human-induced climate change are often presented with large multi-model ensembles of climate projections whose composition and size are arbitrarily determined. An efficient and versatile method that finds a subset which maintains certain key properties from the full ensemble is needed, but very little work has been done in this area. Therefore, users typically make their own somewhat subjective subset choices and commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate. However, different climate model simulations cannot necessarily be regarded as independent estimates due to the presence of duplicated code and shared development history. Here, we present an efficient and flexible tool that makes better use of the ensemble as a whole by finding a subset with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments. This approach is illustrated with one set of optimisation criteria but we also highlight the flexibility of cost functions, depending on the focus of different users. The technique is useful for a range of applications that, for example, minimise present-day bias to obtain an accurate ensemble mean, reduce dependence in ensemble spread, maximise future spread, ensure good performance of individual models in an ensemble, reduce the ensemble size while maintaining important ensemble characteristics, or optimise several of these at the same time. As in any calibration exercise, the final ensemble is sensitive to the metric, observational product, and pre-processing steps used.
Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties
Herger, Nadja; Abramowitz, Gab; Knutti, Reto; Angélil, Oliver; Lehmann, Karsten; Sanderson, Benjamin M.
2018-02-01
End users studying impacts and risks caused by human-induced climate change are often presented with large multi-model ensembles of climate projections whose composition and size are arbitrarily determined. An efficient and versatile method that finds a subset which maintains certain key properties from the full ensemble is needed, but very little work has been done in this area. Therefore, users typically make their own somewhat subjective subset choices and commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate. However, different climate model simulations cannot necessarily be regarded as independent estimates due to the presence of duplicated code and shared development history. Here, we present an efficient and flexible tool that makes better use of the ensemble as a whole by finding a subset with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments. This approach is illustrated with one set of optimisation criteria but we also highlight the flexibility of cost functions, depending on the focus of different users. The technique is useful for a range of applications that, for example, minimise present-day bias to obtain an accurate ensemble mean, reduce dependence in ensemble spread, maximise future spread, ensure good performance of individual models in an ensemble, reduce the ensemble size while maintaining important ensemble characteristics, or optimise several of these at the same time. As in any calibration exercise, the final ensemble is sensitive to the metric, observational product, and pre-processing steps used.
Modeling task-specific neuronal ensembles improves decoding of grasp
Smith, Ryan J.; Soares, Alcimar B.; Rouse, Adam G.; Schieber, Marc H.; Thakor, Nitish V.
2018-06-01
Objective. Dexterous movement involves the activation and coordination of networks of neuronal populations across multiple cortical regions. Attempts to model firing of individual neurons commonly treat the firing rate as directly modulating with motor behavior. However, motor behavior may additionally be associated with modulations in the activity and functional connectivity of neurons in a broader ensemble. Accounting for variations in neural ensemble connectivity may provide additional information about the behavior being performed. Approach. In this study, we examined neural ensemble activity in primary motor cortex (M1) and premotor cortex (PM) of two male rhesus monkeys during performance of a center-out reach, grasp and manipulate task. We constructed point process encoding models of neuronal firing that incorporated task-specific variations in the baseline firing rate as well as variations in functional connectivity with the neural ensemble. Models were evaluated both in terms of their encoding capabilities and their ability to properly classify the grasp being performed. Main results. Task-specific ensemble models correctly predicted the performed grasp with over 95% accuracy and were shown to outperform models of neuronal activity that assume only a variable baseline firing rate. Task-specific ensemble models exhibited superior decoding performance in 82% of units in both monkeys (p < 0.01). Inclusion of ensemble activity also broadly improved the ability of models to describe observed spiking. Encoding performance of task-specific ensemble models, measured by spike timing predictability, improved upon baseline models in 62% of units. Significance. These results suggest that additional discriminative information about motor behavior found in the variations in functional connectivity of neuronal ensembles located in motor-related cortical regions is relevant to decode complex tasks such as grasping objects, and may serve the basis for more
Ensemble Deep Learning for Biomedical Time Series Classification
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lin-peng Jin
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Ensemble learning has been proved to improve the generalization ability effectively in both theory and practice. In this paper, we briefly outline the current status of research on it first. Then, a new deep neural network-based ensemble method that integrates filtering views, local views, distorted views, explicit training, implicit training, subview prediction, and Simple Average is proposed for biomedical time series classification. Finally, we validate its effectiveness on the Chinese Cardiovascular Disease Database containing a large number of electrocardiogram recordings. The experimental results show that the proposed method has certain advantages compared to some well-known ensemble methods, such as Bagging and AdaBoost.
Device and Method for Gathering Ensemble Data Sets
Racette, Paul E. (Inventor)
2014-01-01
An ensemble detector uses calibrated noise references to produce ensemble sets of data from which properties of non-stationary processes may be extracted. The ensemble detector comprising: a receiver; a switching device coupled to the receiver, the switching device configured to selectively connect each of a plurality of reference noise signals to the receiver; and a gain modulation circuit coupled to the receiver and configured to vary a gain of the receiver based on a forcing signal; whereby the switching device selectively connects each of the plurality of reference noise signals to the receiver to produce an output signal derived from the plurality of reference noise signals and the forcing signal.
Parallel quantum computing in a single ensemble quantum computer
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Long Guilu; Xiao, L.
2004-01-01
We propose a parallel quantum computing mode for ensemble quantum computer. In this mode, some qubits are in pure states while other qubits are in mixed states. It enables a single ensemble quantum computer to perform 'single-instruction-multidata' type of parallel computation. Parallel quantum computing can provide additional speedup in Grover's algorithm and Shor's algorithm. In addition, it also makes a fuller use of qubit resources in an ensemble quantum computer. As a result, some qubits discarded in the preparation of an effective pure state in the Schulman-Varizani and the Cleve-DiVincenzo algorithms can be reutilized
Hu, Jianlin; Li, Xun; Huang, Lin; Ying, Qi; Zhang, Qiang; Zhao, Bin; Wang, Shuxiao; Zhang, Hongliang
2017-11-01
Accurate exposure estimates are required for health effect analyses of severe air pollution in China. Chemical transport models (CTMs) are widely used to provide spatial distribution, chemical composition, particle size fractions, and source origins of air pollutants. The accuracy of air quality predictions in China is greatly affected by the uncertainties of emission inventories. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with meteorological inputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were used in this study to simulate air pollutants in China in 2013. Four simulations were conducted with four different anthropogenic emission inventories, including the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), the Emission Inventory for China by School of Environment at Tsinghua University (SOE), the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), and the Regional Emission inventory in Asia version 2 (REAS2). Model performance of each simulation was evaluated against available observation data from 422 sites in 60 cities across China. Model predictions of O3 and PM2.5 generally meet the model performance criteria, but performance differences exist in different regions, for different pollutants, and among inventories. Ensemble predictions were calculated by linearly combining the results from different inventories to minimize the sum of the squared errors between the ensemble results and the observations in all cities. The ensemble concentrations show improved agreement with observations in most cities. The mean fractional bias (MFB) and mean fractional errors (MFEs) of the ensemble annual PM2.5 in the 60 cities are -0.11 and 0.24, respectively, which are better than the MFB (-0.25 to -0.16) and MFE (0.26-0.31) of individual simulations. The ensemble annual daily maximum 1 h O3 (O3-1h) concentrations are also improved, with mean normalized bias (MNB) of 0.03 and mean normalized errors (MNE) of 0.14, compared to MNB of 0.06-0.19 and
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Hu
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Accurate exposure estimates are required for health effect analyses of severe air pollution in China. Chemical transport models (CTMs are widely used to provide spatial distribution, chemical composition, particle size fractions, and source origins of air pollutants. The accuracy of air quality predictions in China is greatly affected by the uncertainties of emission inventories. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ model with meteorological inputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model were used in this study to simulate air pollutants in China in 2013. Four simulations were conducted with four different anthropogenic emission inventories, including the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC, the Emission Inventory for China by School of Environment at Tsinghua University (SOE, the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR, and the Regional Emission inventory in Asia version 2 (REAS2. Model performance of each simulation was evaluated against available observation data from 422 sites in 60 cities across China. Model predictions of O3 and PM2.5 generally meet the model performance criteria, but performance differences exist in different regions, for different pollutants, and among inventories. Ensemble predictions were calculated by linearly combining the results from different inventories to minimize the sum of the squared errors between the ensemble results and the observations in all cities. The ensemble concentrations show improved agreement with observations in most cities. The mean fractional bias (MFB and mean fractional errors (MFEs of the ensemble annual PM2.5 in the 60 cities are −0.11 and 0.24, respectively, which are better than the MFB (−0.25 to −0.16 and MFE (0.26–0.31 of individual simulations. The ensemble annual daily maximum 1 h O3 (O3-1h concentrations are also improved, with mean normalized bias (MNB of 0.03 and mean normalized errors (MNE of 0.14, compared to MNB
Liu, Li; Gao, Chao; Xuan, Weidong; Xu, Yue-Ping
2017-11-01
Ensemble flood forecasts by hydrological models using numerical weather prediction products as forcing data are becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications. In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system comprised of an automatically calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated. The hydrological model is optimized by the parallel programmed ε-NSGA II multi-objective algorithm. According to the solutions by ε-NSGA II, two differently parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows at each of the three hydrological stations. Then a simple yet effective modular approach is proposed to combine these daily and peak flows at the same station into one composite series. Five ensemble methods and various evaluation metrics are adopted. The results show that ε-NSGA II can provide an objective determination on parameter estimation, and the parallel program permits a more efficient simulation. It is also demonstrated that the forecasts from ECMWF have more favorable skill scores than other Ensemble Prediction Systems. The multimodel ensembles have advantages over all the single model ensembles and the multimodel methods weighted on members and skill scores outperform other methods. Furthermore, the overall performance at three stations can be satisfactory up to ten days, however the hydrological errors can degrade the skill score by approximately 2 days, and the influence persists until a lead time of 10 days with a weakening trend. With respect to peak flows selected by the Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from single models or multimodels are generally underestimated, indicating that the ensemble mean can bring overall improvement in forecasting of flows. For
Scalable quantum information processing with atomic ensembles and flying photons
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mei Feng; Yu Yafei; Feng Mang; Zhang Zhiming
2009-01-01
We present a scheme for scalable quantum information processing with atomic ensembles and flying photons. Using the Rydberg blockade, we encode the qubits in the collective atomic states, which could be manipulated fast and easily due to the enhanced interaction in comparison to the single-atom case. We demonstrate that our proposed gating could be applied to generation of two-dimensional cluster states for measurement-based quantum computation. Moreover, the atomic ensembles also function as quantum repeaters useful for long-distance quantum state transfer. We show the possibility of our scheme to work in bad cavity or in weak coupling regime, which could much relax the experimental requirement. The efficient coherent operations on the ensemble qubits enable our scheme to be switchable between quantum computation and quantum communication using atomic ensembles.
HIGH-RESOLUTION ATMOSPHERIC ENSEMBLE MODELING AT SRNL
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Buckley, R.; Werth, D.; Chiswell, S.; Etherton, B.
2011-05-10
The High-Resolution Mid-Atlantic Forecasting Ensemble (HME) is a federated effort to improve operational forecasts related to precipitation, convection and boundary layer evolution, and fire weather utilizing data and computing resources from a diverse group of cooperating institutions in order to create a mesoscale ensemble from independent members. Collaborating organizations involved in the project include universities, National Weather Service offices, and national laboratories, including the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). The ensemble system is produced from an overlapping numerical weather prediction model domain and parameter subsets provided by each contributing member. The coordination, synthesis, and dissemination of the ensemble information are performed by the Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill. This paper discusses background related to the HME effort, SRNL participation, and example results available from the RENCI website.
Relation between native ensembles and experimental structures of proteins
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Best, R. B.; Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten; DePristo, M. A.
2006-01-01
Different experimental structures of the same protein or of proteins with high sequence similarity contain many small variations. Here we construct ensembles of "high-sequence similarity Protein Data Bank" (HSP) structures and consider the extent to which such ensembles represent the structural...... Data Bank ensembles; moreover, we show that the effects of uncertainties in structure determination are insufficient to explain the results. These results highlight the importance of accounting for native-state protein dynamics in making comparisons with ensemble-averaged experimental data and suggest...... heterogeneity of the native state in solution. We find that different NMR measurements probing structure and dynamics of given proteins in solution, including order parameters, scalar couplings, and residual dipolar couplings, are remarkably well reproduced by their respective high-sequence similarity Protein...
Time-dependent generalized Gibbs ensembles in open quantum systems
Lange, Florian; Lenarčič, Zala; Rosch, Achim
2018-04-01
Generalized Gibbs ensembles have been used as powerful tools to describe the steady state of integrable many-particle quantum systems after a sudden change of the Hamiltonian. Here, we demonstrate numerically that they can be used for a much broader class of problems. We consider integrable systems in the presence of weak perturbations which break both integrability and drive the system to a state far from equilibrium. Under these conditions, we show that the steady state and the time evolution on long timescales can be accurately described by a (truncated) generalized Gibbs ensemble with time-dependent Lagrange parameters, determined from simple rate equations. We compare the numerically exact time evolutions of density matrices for small systems with a theory based on block-diagonal density matrices (diagonal ensemble) and a time-dependent generalized Gibbs ensemble containing only a small number of approximately conserved quantities, using the one-dimensional Heisenberg model with perturbations described by Lindblad operators as an example.
Quantum Ensemble Classification: A Sampling-Based Learning Control Approach.
Chen, Chunlin; Dong, Daoyi; Qi, Bo; Petersen, Ian R; Rabitz, Herschel
2017-06-01
Quantum ensemble classification (QEC) has significant applications in discrimination of atoms (or molecules), separation of isotopes, and quantum information extraction. However, quantum mechanics forbids deterministic discrimination among nonorthogonal states. The classification of inhomogeneous quantum ensembles is very challenging, since there exist variations in the parameters characterizing the members within different classes. In this paper, we recast QEC as a supervised quantum learning problem. A systematic classification methodology is presented by using a sampling-based learning control (SLC) approach for quantum discrimination. The classification task is accomplished via simultaneously steering members belonging to different classes to their corresponding target states (e.g., mutually orthogonal states). First, a new discrimination method is proposed for two similar quantum systems. Then, an SLC method is presented for QEC. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for the binary classification of two-level quantum ensembles and the multiclass classification of multilevel quantum ensembles.
Probing RNA native conformational ensembles with structural constraints
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fonseca, Rasmus; van den Bedem, Henry; Bernauer, Julie
2016-01-01
substates, which are difficult to characterize experimentally and computationally. Here, we present an innovative, entirely kinematic computational procedure to efficiently explore the native ensemble of RNA molecules. Our procedure projects degrees of freedom onto a subspace of conformation space defined...
Reservoir History Matching Using Ensemble Kalman Filters with Anamorphosis Transforms
Aman, Beshir M.
2012-01-01
Some History matching methods such as Kalman filter, particle filter and the ensemble Kalman filter are reviewed and applied to a test case in the reservoir application. The key idea is to apply the transformation before the update step
An ensemble classifier to predict track geometry degradation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cárdenas-Gallo, Iván; Sarmiento, Carlos A.; Morales, Gilberto A.; Bolivar, Manuel A.; Akhavan-Tabatabaei, Raha
2017-01-01
Railway operations are inherently complex and source of several problems. In particular, track geometry defects are one of the leading causes of train accidents in the United States. This paper presents a solution approach which entails the construction of an ensemble classifier to forecast the degradation of track geometry. Our classifier is constructed by solving the problem from three different perspectives: deterioration, regression and classification. We considered a different model from each perspective and our results show that using an ensemble method improves the predictive performance. - Highlights: • We present an ensemble classifier to forecast the degradation of track geometry. • Our classifier considers three perspectives: deterioration, regression and classification. • We construct and test three models and our results show that using an ensemble method improves the predictive performance.
Dissipation induced asymmetric steering of distant atomic ensembles
Cheng, Guangling; Tan, Huatang; Chen, Aixi
2018-04-01
The asymmetric steering effects of separated atomic ensembles denoted by the effective bosonic modes have been explored by the means of quantum reservoir engineering in the setting of the cascaded cavities, in each of which an atomic ensemble is involved. It is shown that the steady-state asymmetric steering of the mesoscopic objects is unconditionally achieved via the dissipation of the cavities, by which the nonlocal interaction occurs between two atomic ensembles, and the direction of steering could be easily controlled through variation of certain tunable system parameters. One advantage of the present scheme is that it could be rather robust against parameter fluctuations, and does not require the accurate control of evolution time and the original state of the system. Furthermore, the double-channel Raman transitions between the long-lived atomic ground states are used and the atomic ensembles act as the quantum network nodes, which makes our scheme insensitive to the collective spontaneous emission of atoms.
Probability Maps for the Visualization of Assimilation Ensemble Flow Data
Hollt, Thomas; Hadwiger, Markus; Knio, Omar; Hoteit, Ibrahim
2015-01-01
resampling, every member can follow up on any of the members before resampling. Tracking behavior over time, such as all possible paths of a particle in an ensemble vector field, becomes very difficult, as the number of combinations rises exponentially
Developing of Thai Classical Music Ensemble in Rattanakosin Period
Pansak Vandee
2013-01-01
The research titled “Developing of Thai Classical Music Ensemble in Rattanakosin Period" aimed 1) to study the history of Thai Classical Music Ensemble in Rattanakosin Period and 2) to analyze changing in each period of Rattanakosin Era. This is the historical and documentary research. The data was collected by in-depth interview those musicians, and academic music experts and field study. The focus group discussion was conducted to analyze and conclude the findings. The research found that t...
Weight Distribution for Non-binary Cluster LDPC Code Ensemble
Nozaki, Takayuki; Maehara, Masaki; Kasai, Kenta; Sakaniwa, Kohichi
In this paper, we derive the average weight distributions for the irregular non-binary cluster low-density parity-check (LDPC) code ensembles. Moreover, we give the exponential growth rate of the average weight distribution in the limit of large code length. We show that there exist $(2,d_c)$-regular non-binary cluster LDPC code ensembles whose normalized typical minimum distances are strictly positive.
On the distribution of eigenvalues of certain matrix ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bogomolny, E.; Bohigas, O.; Pato, M.P.
1995-01-01
Invariant random matrix ensembles with weak confinement potentials of the eigenvalues, corresponding to indeterminate moment problems, are investigated. These ensembles are characterized by the fact that the mean density of eigenvalues tends to a continuous function with increasing matrix dimension contrary to the usual cases where it grows indefinitely. It is demonstrated that the standard asymptotic formulae are not applicable in these cases and that the asymptotic distribution of eigenvalues can deviate from the classical ones. (author)
A Separation between Divergence and Holevo Information for Ensembles
Jain, Rahul; Nayak, Ashwin; Su, Yi
2007-01-01
The notion of divergence information of an ensemble of probability distributions was introduced by Jain, Radhakrishnan, and Sen in the context of the ``substate theorem''. Since then, divergence has been recognized as a more natural measure of information in several situations in quantum and classical communication. We construct ensembles of probability distributions for which divergence information may be significantly smaller than the more standard Holevo information. As a result, we establ...
ENSEMBLE methods to reconcile disparate national long range dispersion forecasts
Mikkelsen, Torben; Galmarini, S.; Bianconi, R.; French, S.
2003-01-01
ENSEMBLE is a web-based decision support system for real-time exchange and evaluation of national long-range dispersion forecasts of nuclear releases with cross-boundary consequences. The system is developed with the purpose to reconcile among disparatenational forecasts for long-range dispersion. ENSEMBLE addresses the problem of achieving a common coherent strategy across European national emergency management when national long-range dispersion forecasts differ from one another during an a...
Spectral statistics in semiclassical random-matrix ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Feingold, M.; Leitner, D.M.; Wilkinson, M.
1991-01-01
A novel random-matrix ensemble is introduced which mimics the global structure inherent in the Hamiltonian matrices of autonomous, ergodic systems. Changes in its parameters induce a transition between a Poisson and a Wigner distribution for the level spacings, P(s). The intermediate distributions are uniquely determined by a single scaling variable. Semiclassical constraints force the ensemble to be in a regime with Wigner P(s) for systems with more than two freedoms
An automated approach to network features of protein structure ensembles
Bhattacharyya, Moitrayee; Bhat, Chanda R; Vishveshwara, Saraswathi
2013-01-01
Network theory applied to protein structures provides insights into numerous problems of biological relevance. The explosion in structural data available from PDB and simulations establishes a need to introduce a standalone-efficient program that assembles network concepts/parameters under one hood in an automated manner. Herein, we discuss the development/application of an exhaustive, user-friendly, standalone program package named PSN-Ensemble, which can handle structural ensembles generated through molecular dynamics (MD) simulation/NMR studies or from multiple X-ray structures. The novelty in network construction lies in the explicit consideration of side-chain interactions among amino acids. The program evaluates network parameters dealing with topological organization and long-range allosteric communication. The introduction of a flexible weighing scheme in terms of residue pairwise cross-correlation/interaction energy in PSN-Ensemble brings in dynamical/chemical knowledge into the network representation. Also, the results are mapped on a graphical display of the structure, allowing an easy access of network analysis to a general biological community. The potential of PSN-Ensemble toward examining structural ensemble is exemplified using MD trajectories of an ubiquitin-conjugating enzyme (UbcH5b). Furthermore, insights derived from network parameters evaluated using PSN-Ensemble for single-static structures of active/inactive states of β2-adrenergic receptor and the ternary tRNA complexes of tyrosyl tRNA synthetases (from organisms across kingdoms) are discussed. PSN-Ensemble is freely available from http://vishgraph.mbu.iisc.ernet.in/PSN-Ensemble/psn_index.html. PMID:23934896
SVM and SVM Ensembles in Breast Cancer Prediction.
Huang, Min-Wei; Chen, Chih-Wen; Lin, Wei-Chao; Ke, Shih-Wen; Tsai, Chih-Fong
2017-01-01
Breast cancer is an all too common disease in women, making how to effectively predict it an active research problem. A number of statistical and machine learning techniques have been employed to develop various breast cancer prediction models. Among them, support vector machines (SVM) have been shown to outperform many related techniques. To construct the SVM classifier, it is first necessary to decide the kernel function, and different kernel functions can result in different prediction performance. However, there have been very few studies focused on examining the prediction performances of SVM based on different kernel functions. Moreover, it is unknown whether SVM classifier ensembles which have been proposed to improve the performance of single classifiers can outperform single SVM classifiers in terms of breast cancer prediction. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to fully assess the prediction performance of SVM and SVM ensembles over small and large scale breast cancer datasets. The classification accuracy, ROC, F-measure, and computational times of training SVM and SVM ensembles are compared. The experimental results show that linear kernel based SVM ensembles based on the bagging method and RBF kernel based SVM ensembles with the boosting method can be the better choices for a small scale dataset, where feature selection should be performed in the data pre-processing stage. For a large scale dataset, RBF kernel based SVM ensembles based on boosting perform better than the other classifiers.
Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jinyin Ye
2016-01-01
Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.
Impact of ensemble learning in the assessment of skeletal maturity.
Cunha, Pedro; Moura, Daniel C; Guevara López, Miguel Angel; Guerra, Conceição; Pinto, Daniela; Ramos, Isabel
2014-09-01
The assessment of the bone age, or skeletal maturity, is an important task in pediatrics that measures the degree of maturation of children's bones. Nowadays, there is no standard clinical procedure for assessing bone age and the most widely used approaches are the Greulich and Pyle and the Tanner and Whitehouse methods. Computer methods have been proposed to automatize the process; however, there is a lack of exploration about how to combine the features of the different parts of the hand, and how to take advantage of ensemble techniques for this purpose. This paper presents a study where the use of ensemble techniques for improving bone age assessment is evaluated. A new computer method was developed that extracts descriptors for each joint of each finger, which are then combined using different ensemble schemes for obtaining a final bone age value. Three popular ensemble schemes are explored in this study: bagging, stacking and voting. Best results were achieved by bagging with a rule-based regression (M5P), scoring a mean absolute error of 10.16 months. Results show that ensemble techniques improve the prediction performance of most of the evaluated regression algorithms, always achieving best or comparable to best results. Therefore, the success of the ensemble methods allow us to conclude that their use may improve computer-based bone age assessment, offering a scalable option for utilizing multiple regions of interest and combining their output.
Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.
Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T
2015-08-25
The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.
On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble
Schellander-Gorgas, Theresa; Wang, Yong; Meier, Florian; Weidle, Florian; Wittmann, Christoph; Kann, Alexander
2017-01-01
The 2.5 km convection-permitting (CP) ensemble AROME-EPS (Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale - Ensemble Prediction System) is evaluated by comparison with the regional 11 km ensemble ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaption dynamique Développement InterNational - Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting) to show whether a benefit is provided by a CP EPS. The evaluation focuses on the abilities of the ensembles to quantitatively predict precipitation during a 3-month convective summer period over areas consisting of mountains and lowlands. The statistical verification uses surface observations and 1 km × 1 km precipitation analyses, and the verification scores involve state-of-the-art statistical measures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts as well as novel spatial verification methods. The results show that the convection-permitting ensemble with higher-resolution AROME-EPS outperforms its mesoscale counterpart ALADIN-LAEF for precipitation forecasts. The positive impact is larger for the mountainous areas than for the lowlands. In particular, the diurnal precipitation cycle is improved in AROME-EPS, which leads to a significant improvement of scores at the concerned times of day (up to approximately one-third of the scored verification measure). Moreover, there are advantages for higher precipitation thresholds at small spatial scales, which are due to the improved simulation of the spatial structure of precipitation.
Ensembles of a small number of conformations with relative populations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vammi, Vijay, E-mail: vsvammi@iastate.edu; Song, Guang, E-mail: gsong@iastate.edu [Iowa State University, Bioinformatics and Computational Biology Program, Department of Computer Science (United States)
2015-12-15
In our previous work, we proposed a new way to represent protein native states, using ensembles of a small number of conformations with relative Populations, or ESP in short. Using Ubiquitin as an example, we showed that using a small number of conformations could greatly reduce the potential of overfitting and assigning relative populations to protein ensembles could significantly improve their quality. To demonstrate that ESP indeed is an excellent alternative to represent protein native states, in this work we compare the quality of two ESP ensembles of Ubiquitin with several well-known regular ensembles or average structure representations. Extensive amount of significant experimental data are employed to achieve a thorough assessment. Our results demonstrate that ESP ensembles, though much smaller in size comparing to regular ensembles, perform equally or even better sometimes in all four different types of experimental data used in the assessment, namely, the residual dipolar couplings, residual chemical shift anisotropy, hydrogen exchange rates, and solution scattering profiles. This work further underlines the significance of having relative populations in describing the native states.
Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy
Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo
2016-03-01
Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.
Protein folding simulations by generalized-ensemble algorithms.
Yoda, Takao; Sugita, Yuji; Okamoto, Yuko
2014-01-01
In the protein folding problem, conventional simulations in physical statistical mechanical ensembles, such as the canonical ensemble with fixed temperature, face a great difficulty. This is because there exist a huge number of local-minimum-energy states in the system and the conventional simulations tend to get trapped in these states, giving wrong results. Generalized-ensemble algorithms are based on artificial unphysical ensembles and overcome the above difficulty by performing random walks in potential energy, volume, and other physical quantities or their corresponding conjugate parameters such as temperature, pressure, etc. The advantage of generalized-ensemble simulations lies in the fact that they not only avoid getting trapped in states of energy local minima but also allows the calculations of physical quantities as functions of temperature or other parameters from a single simulation run. In this article we review the generalized-ensemble algorithms. Four examples, multicanonical algorithm, replica-exchange method, replica-exchange multicanonical algorithm, and multicanonical replica-exchange method, are described in detail. Examples of their applications to the protein folding problem are presented.
SVM and SVM Ensembles in Breast Cancer Prediction.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Min-Wei Huang
Full Text Available Breast cancer is an all too common disease in women, making how to effectively predict it an active research problem. A number of statistical and machine learning techniques have been employed to develop various breast cancer prediction models. Among them, support vector machines (SVM have been shown to outperform many related techniques. To construct the SVM classifier, it is first necessary to decide the kernel function, and different kernel functions can result in different prediction performance. However, there have been very few studies focused on examining the prediction performances of SVM based on different kernel functions. Moreover, it is unknown whether SVM classifier ensembles which have been proposed to improve the performance of single classifiers can outperform single SVM classifiers in terms of breast cancer prediction. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to fully assess the prediction performance of SVM and SVM ensembles over small and large scale breast cancer datasets. The classification accuracy, ROC, F-measure, and computational times of training SVM and SVM ensembles are compared. The experimental results show that linear kernel based SVM ensembles based on the bagging method and RBF kernel based SVM ensembles with the boosting method can be the better choices for a small scale dataset, where feature selection should be performed in the data pre-processing stage. For a large scale dataset, RBF kernel based SVM ensembles based on boosting perform better than the other classifiers.
On evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts with observation-based ensembles
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Jaun
2007-04-01
Full Text Available Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is uncertain. How important is this uncertainty and how can it be considered in evaluation of high-resolution probabilistic precipitation forecasts? These questions are discussed by experimental evaluation of the COSMO consortium's limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS. The applied performance measure is the often used Brier skill score (BSS. The observational references in the evaluation are (a analyzed rain gauge data by ordinary Kriging and (b ensembles of interpolated rain gauge data by stochastic simulation. This permits the consideration of either a deterministic reference (the event is observed or not with 100% certainty or a probabilistic reference that makes allowance for uncertainties in spatial averaging. The evaluation experiments show that the evaluation uncertainties are substantial even for the large area (41 300 km2 of Switzerland with a mean rain gauge distance as good as 7 km: the one- to three-day precipitation forecasts have skill decreasing with forecast lead time but the one- and two-day forecast performances differ not significantly.
EnsembleGASVR: A novel ensemble method for classifying missense single nucleotide polymorphisms
Rapakoulia, Trisevgeni
2014-04-26
Motivation: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are considered the most frequently occurring DNA sequence variations. Several computational methods have been proposed for the classification of missense SNPs to neutral and disease associated. However, existing computational approaches fail to select relevant features by choosing them arbitrarily without sufficient documentation. Moreover, they are limited to the problem ofmissing values, imbalance between the learning datasets and most of them do not support their predictions with confidence scores. Results: To overcome these limitations, a novel ensemble computational methodology is proposed. EnsembleGASVR facilitates a twostep algorithm, which in its first step applies a novel evolutionary embedded algorithm to locate close to optimal Support Vector Regression models. In its second step, these models are combined to extract a universal predictor, which is less prone to overfitting issues, systematizes the rebalancing of the learning sets and uses an internal approach for solving the missing values problem without loss of information. Confidence scores support all the predictions and the model becomes tunable by modifying the classification thresholds. An extensive study was performed for collecting the most relevant features for the problem of classifying SNPs, and a superset of 88 features was constructed. Experimental results show that the proposed framework outperforms well-known algorithms in terms of classification performance in the examined datasets. Finally, the proposed algorithmic framework was able to uncover the significant role of certain features such as the solvent accessibility feature, and the top-scored predictions were further validated by linking them with disease phenotypes. © The Author 2014.
Schweiner, Frank; Laturner, Jeanine; Main, Jörg; Wunner, Günter
2017-11-01
Until now only for specific crossovers between Poissonian statistics (P), the statistics of a Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE), or the statistics of a Gaussian unitary ensemble (GUE) have analytical formulas for the level spacing distribution function been derived within random matrix theory. We investigate arbitrary crossovers in the triangle between all three statistics. To this aim we propose an according formula for the level spacing distribution function depending on two parameters. Comparing the behavior of our formula for the special cases of P→GUE, P→GOE, and GOE→GUE with the results from random matrix theory, we prove that these crossovers are described reasonably. Recent investigations by F. Schweiner et al. [Phys. Rev. E 95, 062205 (2017)2470-004510.1103/PhysRevE.95.062205] have shown that the Hamiltonian of magnetoexcitons in cubic semiconductors can exhibit all three statistics in dependence on the system parameters. Evaluating the numerical results for magnetoexcitons in dependence on the excitation energy and on a parameter connected with the cubic valence band structure and comparing the results with the formula proposed allows us to distinguish between regular and chaotic behavior as well as between existent or broken antiunitary symmetries. Increasing one of the two parameters, transitions between different crossovers, e.g., from the P→GOE to the P→GUE crossover, are observed and discussed.
Kinetics of particle ensembles with variable charges
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ivlev, A. V.; Zhdanov, S.; Klumov, B.; Morfill, G.; Tsytovich, V. N.; Angelis, U. de
2005-01-01
One of the remarkable features distinguishing complex (dusty) plasmas from usual plasmas is that charges on the grains are not constant, but fluctuate in time around some equilibrium value which, in then, is some function of spatial coordinates. Generally, ensembles of particles with variable charges are non-Hamiltonian systems where the mutual collisions do not conserve energy. Therefore, the use of thermodynamic potentials to describe such systems is not really valid. An appropriate way to investigate their evolution is to employ the kinetic approach. We studied (both analytical and numerically) two cases: (a) inhomogeneous charge-it depends on the particle coordinate but does not change in time, and (b)fluctuating charge-it changes in time around the equilibrium value, which is constant in space. For both cases we used the Fokker-Planck approach to derive the collision integral which describes the momentum and energy transfer in mutual particle collisions as well as in the collisions with neutrals. We obtained that the mean particle energy grows in time when the neutral friction is below a certain threshold (as shown in Fig. 1). In case (a) the energy changes as ∞(t c r-t)''2, in case (b) it scales as ∞(t c r-t)''-1, exhibiting the explosion-like growth with t c r a critical time scale. The obtained solutions can be of significant importance for laboratory dusty plasmas as well as for space plasma environments, where inhomogeneous charge distributions are often present. For instance, the instability can cause dust heating in low-pressure complex plasma experiments, it can be responsible for the melting of plasma crystals, it might operate in protoplanetary disks and effect the kinetics of the planet formation, etc. (Author)
Random ensemble learning for EEG classification.
Hosseini, Mohammad-Parsa; Pompili, Dario; Elisevich, Kost; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid
2018-01-01
Real-time detection of seizure activity in epilepsy patients is critical in averting seizure activity and improving patients' quality of life. Accurate evaluation, presurgical assessment, seizure prevention, and emergency alerts all depend on the rapid detection of seizure onset. A new method of feature selection and classification for rapid and precise seizure detection is discussed wherein informative components of electroencephalogram (EEG)-derived data are extracted and an automatic method is presented using infinite independent component analysis (I-ICA) to select independent features. The feature space is divided into subspaces via random selection and multichannel support vector machines (SVMs) are used to classify these subspaces. The result of each classifier is then combined by majority voting to establish the final output. In addition, a random subspace ensemble using a combination of SVM, multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network and an extended k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), called extended nearest neighbor (ENN), is developed for the EEG and electrocorticography (ECoG) big data problem. To evaluate the solution, a benchmark ECoG of eight patients with temporal and extratemporal epilepsy was implemented in a distributed computing framework as a multitier cloud-computing architecture. Using leave-one-out cross-validation, the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and both false positive and false negative ratios of the proposed method were found to be 0.97, 0.98, 0.96, 0.04, and 0.02, respectively. Application of the solution to cases under investigation with ECoG has also been effected to demonstrate its utility. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Combining 2-m temperature nowcasting and short range ensemble forecasting
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Kann
2011-12-01
Full Text Available During recent years, numerical ensemble prediction systems have become an important tool for estimating the uncertainties of dynamical and physical processes as represented in numerical weather models. The latest generation of limited area ensemble prediction systems (LAM-EPSs allows for probabilistic forecasts at high resolution in both space and time. However, these systems still suffer from systematic deficiencies. Especially for nowcasting (0–6 h applications the ensemble spread is smaller than the actual forecast error. This paper tries to generate probabilistic short range 2-m temperature forecasts by combining a state-of-the-art nowcasting method and a limited area ensemble system, and compares the results with statistical methods. The Integrated Nowcasting Through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA system, which has been in operation at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG since 2006 (Haiden et al., 2011, provides short range deterministic forecasts at high temporal (15 min–60 min and spatial (1 km resolution. An INCA Ensemble (INCA-EPS of 2-m temperature forecasts is constructed by applying a dynamical approach, a statistical approach, and a combined dynamic-statistical method. The dynamical method takes uncertainty information (i.e. ensemble variance from the operational limited area ensemble system ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting which is running operationally at ZAMG (Wang et al., 2011. The purely statistical method assumes a well-calibrated spread-skill relation and applies ensemble spread according to the skill of the INCA forecast of the most recent past. The combined dynamic-statistical approach adapts the ensemble variance gained from ALADIN-LAEF with non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR which yields a statistical mbox{correction} of the first and second moment (mean bias and dispersion for Gaussian distributed continuous
Developing an Ensemble Prediction System based on COSMO-DE
Theis, S.; Gebhardt, C.; Buchhold, M.; Ben Bouallègue, Z.; Ohl, R.; Paulat, M.; Peralta, C.
2010-09-01
The numerical weather prediction model COSMO-DE is a configuration of the COSMO model with a horizontal grid size of 2.8 km. It has been running operationally at DWD since 2007, it covers the area of Germany and produces forecasts with a lead time of 0-21 hours. The model COSMO-DE is convection-permitting, which means that it does without a parametrisation of deep convection and simulates deep convection explicitly. One aim is an improved forecast of convective heavy rain events. Convection-permitting models are in operational use at several weather services, but currently not in ensemble mode. It is expected that an ensemble system could reveal the advantages of a convection-permitting model even better. The probabilistic approach is necessary, because the explicit simulation of convective processes for more than a few hours cannot be viewed as a deterministic forecast anymore. This is due to the chaotic behaviour and short life cycle of the processes which are simulated explicitly now. In the framework of the project COSMO-DE-EPS, DWD is developing and implementing an ensemble prediction system (EPS) for the model COSMO-DE. The project COSMO-DE-EPS comprises the generation of ensemble members, as well as the verification and visualization of the ensemble forecasts and also statistical postprocessing. A pre-operational mode of the EPS with 20 ensemble members is foreseen to start in 2010. Operational use is envisaged to start in 2012, after an upgrade to 40 members and inclusion of statistical postprocessing. The presentation introduces the project COSMO-DE-EPS and describes the design of the ensemble as it is planned for the pre-operational mode. In particular, the currently implemented method for the generation of ensemble members will be explained and discussed. The method includes variations of initial conditions, lateral boundary conditions, and model physics. At present, pragmatic methods are applied which resemble the basic ideas of a multi-model approach
Shallow cumuli ensemble statistics for development of a stochastic parameterization
Sakradzija, Mirjana; Seifert, Axel; Heus, Thijs
2014-05-01
According to a conventional deterministic approach to the parameterization of moist convection in numerical atmospheric models, a given large scale forcing produces an unique response from the unresolved convective processes. This representation leaves out the small-scale variability of convection, as it is known from the empirical studies of deep and shallow convective cloud ensembles, there is a whole distribution of sub-grid states corresponding to the given large scale forcing. Moreover, this distribution gets broader with the increasing model resolution. This behavior is also consistent with our theoretical understanding of a coarse-grained nonlinear system. We propose an approach to represent the variability of the unresolved shallow-convective states, including the dependence of the sub-grid states distribution spread and shape on the model horizontal resolution. Starting from the Gibbs canonical ensemble theory, Craig and Cohen (2006) developed a theory for the fluctuations in a deep convective ensemble. The micro-states of a deep convective cloud ensemble are characterized by the cloud-base mass flux, which, according to the theory, is exponentially distributed (Boltzmann distribution). Following their work, we study the shallow cumulus ensemble statistics and the distribution of the cloud-base mass flux. We employ a Large-Eddy Simulation model (LES) and a cloud tracking algorithm, followed by a conditional sampling of clouds at the cloud base level, to retrieve the information about the individual cloud life cycles and the cloud ensemble as a whole. In the case of shallow cumulus cloud ensemble, the distribution of micro-states is a generalized exponential distribution. Based on the empirical and theoretical findings, a stochastic model has been developed to simulate the shallow convective cloud ensemble and to test the convective ensemble theory. Stochastic model simulates a compound random process, with the number of convective elements drawn from a
On the proper use of Ensembles for Predictive Uncertainty assessment
Todini, Ezio; Coccia, Gabriele; Ortiz, Enrique
2015-04-01
Probabilistic forecasting has become popular in the last decades. Hydrological probabilistic forecasts have been based either on uncertainty processors (Krzysztofowic, 1999; Todini, 2004; Todini, 2008) or on ensembles, following meteorological traditional approaches and the establishment of the HEPEX program (http://hepex.irstea.fr. Unfortunately, the direct use of ensembles as a measure of the predictive density is an incorrect practice, because the ensemble measures the spread of the forecast instead of, following the definition of predictive uncertainty, the conditional probability of the future outcome conditional on the forecast. Only few correct approaches are reported in the literature, which correctly use the ensemble to estimate an expected conditional predictive density (Reggiani et al., 2009), similarly to what is done when several predictive models are available as in the BMA (Raftery et al., 2005) or MCP(Todini, 2008; Coccia and Todini, 2011) approaches. A major problem, limiting the correct use of ensembles, is in fact the difficulty of defining the time dependence of the ensemble members, due to the lack of a consistent ranking: in other words, when dealing with multiple models, the ith model remains the ith model regardless to the time of forecast, while this does not happen when dealing with ensemble members, since there is no definition for the ith member of an ensemble. Nonetheless, the MCP approach (Todini, 2008; Coccia and Todini, 2011), essentially based on a multiple regression in the Normal space, can be easily extended to use ensembles to represent the local (in time) smaller or larger conditional predictive uncertainty, as a function of the ensemble spread. This is done by modifying the classical linear regression equations, impliying perfectly observed predictors, to alternative regression equations similar to the Kalman filter ones, allowing for uncertain predictors. In this way, each prediction in time accounts for both the predictive
Regionalization of post-processed ensemble runoff forecasts
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. O. Skøien
2016-05-01
Full Text Available For many years, meteorological models have been run with perturbated initial conditions or parameters to produce ensemble forecasts that are used as a proxy of the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, the ensembles are usually both biased (the mean is systematically too high or too low, compared with the observed weather, and has dispersion errors (the ensemble variance indicates a too low or too high confidence in the forecast, compared with the observed weather. The ensembles are therefore commonly post-processed to correct for these shortcomings. Here we look at one of these techniques, referred to as Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS (Gneiting et al., 2005. Originally, the post-processing parameters were identified as a fixed set of parameters for a region. The application of our work is the European Flood Awareness System (http://www.efas.eu, where a distributed model is run with meteorological ensembles as input. We are therefore dealing with a considerably larger data set than previous analyses. We also want to regionalize the parameters themselves for other locations than the calibration gauges. The post-processing parameters are therefore estimated for each calibration station, but with a spatial penalty for deviations from neighbouring stations, depending on the expected semivariance between the calibration catchment and these stations. The estimated post-processed parameters can then be used for regionalization of the postprocessing parameters also for uncalibrated locations using top-kriging in the rtop-package (Skøien et al., 2006, 2014. We will show results from cross-validation of the methodology and although our interest is mainly in identifying exceedance probabilities for certain return levels, we will also show how the rtop package can be used for creating a set of post-processed ensembles through simulations.
A multi-model ensemble approach to seabed mapping
Diesing, Markus; Stephens, David
2015-06-01
Seabed habitat mapping based on swath acoustic data and ground-truth samples is an emergent and active marine science discipline. Significant progress could be achieved by transferring techniques and approaches that have been successfully developed and employed in such fields as terrestrial land cover mapping. One such promising approach is the multiple classifier system, which aims at improving classification performance by combining the outputs of several classifiers. Here we present results of a multi-model ensemble applied to multibeam acoustic data covering more than 5000 km2 of seabed in the North Sea with the aim to derive accurate spatial predictions of seabed substrate. A suite of six machine learning classifiers (k-Nearest Neighbour, Support Vector Machine, Classification Tree, Random Forest, Neural Network and Naïve Bayes) was trained with ground-truth sample data classified into seabed substrate classes and their prediction accuracy was assessed with an independent set of samples. The three and five best performing models were combined to classifier ensembles. Both ensembles led to increased prediction accuracy as compared to the best performing single classifier. The improvements were however not statistically significant at the 5% level. Although the three-model ensemble did not perform significantly better than its individual component models, we noticed that the five-model ensemble did perform significantly better than three of the five component models. A classifier ensemble might therefore be an effective strategy to improve classification performance. Another advantage is the fact that the agreement in predicted substrate class between the individual models of the ensemble could be used as a measure of confidence. We propose a simple and spatially explicit measure of confidence that is based on model agreement and prediction accuracy.
Implementation of single qubit in QD ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alegre, T.P. Mayer
2004-01-01
Full text: During the last decades the semiconductor industry has achieved the production of exponentially shrinking components. This fact points to fundamental limits of integration, making computation with single atoms or particles like an electron an ultimate goal. To get to this limit, quantum systems in solid state have to be manipulated in a controllable fashion. The assessment of quantum degrees of freedom for information processing may allow exponentially faster performance for certain classes of problems. The essential aspect to be explored in quantum information processing resides in the superposition of states that allows resources such as entangled states to be envisaged. The quest for the optimal system to host a quantum variable that is sufficiently isolated from the environment encompasses implementations spanning optical, atomic, molecular and solid state systems. In the solid state, a variety of proposals have come forth, each one having its own advantages and disadvantages. The main conclusion from these e efforts is that there is no decisive technology upon which quantum information devices will be built. Self-assembled quantum dots (SAQDs or QDs), can be grown with size uniformity that enables the observation of single electron loading events. They can in turn be used to controllably trap single electrons into discrete levels, atom-like, with their corresponding shells. Hund's rules and Pauli exclusion principle are observed in these nanostructures and are key in allowing and preserving a particular quantum state. Provided that one can trap one electron in a QD ensemble, the corresponding spin can be manipulated by an external magnetic field by either conventional Electron Spin Resonance (ESR) techniques or g-tensor modulation resonance (g-TMR). By analogy with Nuclear Magnetic Resonance, single qubit operations are proposed, which at some point in time should be scaled, provided that spin-spin interactions can be controlled. Read out can be
Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting
Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.
2009-04-01
In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be
Ensemble Kalman filtering with one-step-ahead smoothing
Raboudi, Naila F.
2018-01-11
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is widely used for sequential data assimilation. It operates as a succession of forecast and analysis steps. In realistic large-scale applications, EnKFs are implemented with small ensembles and poorly known model error statistics. This limits their representativeness of the background error covariances and, thus, their performance. This work explores the efficiency of the one-step-ahead (OSA) smoothing formulation of the Bayesian filtering problem to enhance the data assimilation performance of EnKFs. Filtering with OSA smoothing introduces an updated step with future observations, conditioning the ensemble sampling with more information. This should provide an improved background ensemble in the analysis step, which may help to mitigate the suboptimal character of EnKF-based methods. Here, the authors demonstrate the efficiency of a stochastic EnKF with OSA smoothing for state estimation. They then introduce a deterministic-like EnKF-OSA based on the singular evolutive interpolated ensemble Kalman (SEIK) filter. The authors show that the proposed SEIK-OSA outperforms both SEIK, as it efficiently exploits the data twice, and the stochastic EnKF-OSA, as it avoids observational error undersampling. They present extensive assimilation results from numerical experiments conducted with the Lorenz-96 model to demonstrate SEIK-OSA’s capabilities.
Universal critical wrapping probabilities in the canonical ensemble
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hao Hu
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Universal dimensionless quantities, such as Binder ratios and wrapping probabilities, play an important role in the study of critical phenomena. We study the finite-size scaling behavior of the wrapping probability for the Potts model in the random-cluster representation, under the constraint that the total number of occupied bonds is fixed, so that the canonical ensemble applies. We derive that, in the limit L→∞, the critical values of the wrapping probability are different from those of the unconstrained model, i.e. the model in the grand-canonical ensemble, but still universal, for systems with 2yt−d>0 where yt=1/ν is the thermal renormalization exponent and d is the spatial dimension. Similar modifications apply to other dimensionless quantities, such as Binder ratios. For systems with 2yt−d≤0, these quantities share same critical universal values in the two ensembles. It is also derived that new finite-size corrections are induced. These findings apply more generally to systems in the canonical ensemble, e.g. the dilute Potts model with a fixed total number of vacancies. Finally, we formulate an efficient cluster-type algorithm for the canonical ensemble, and confirm these predictions by extensive simulations.
Curve Boxplot: Generalization of Boxplot for Ensembles of Curves.
Mirzargar, Mahsa; Whitaker, Ross T; Kirby, Robert M
2014-12-01
In simulation science, computational scientists often study the behavior of their simulations by repeated solutions with variations in parameters and/or boundary values or initial conditions. Through such simulation ensembles, one can try to understand or quantify the variability or uncertainty in a solution as a function of the various inputs or model assumptions. In response to a growing interest in simulation ensembles, the visualization community has developed a suite of methods for allowing users to observe and understand the properties of these ensembles in an efficient and effective manner. An important aspect of visualizing simulations is the analysis of derived features, often represented as points, surfaces, or curves. In this paper, we present a novel, nonparametric method for summarizing ensembles of 2D and 3D curves. We propose an extension of a method from descriptive statistics, data depth, to curves. We also demonstrate a set of rendering and visualization strategies for showing rank statistics of an ensemble of curves, which is a generalization of traditional whisker plots or boxplots to multidimensional curves. Results are presented for applications in neuroimaging, hurricane forecasting and fluid dynamics.
Skill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik A; Madsen, Henrik; Kariniotakis, George
2007-01-01
This paper presents an investigation on alternative approaches to the providing of uncertainty estimates associated to point predictions of wind generation. Focus is given to skill forecasts in the form of prediction risk indices, aiming at giving a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the dispersion of ensemble members for a single prediction horizon, or over a set of successive look-ahead times. It is shown on the test case of a Danish offshore wind farm how prediction risk indices may be related to several levels of forecast uncertainty (and energy imbalances). Wind power ensemble predictions are derived from the transformation of ECMWF and NCEP ensembles of meteorological variables to power, as well as by a lagged average approach alternative. The ability of risk indices calculated from the various types of ensembles forecasts to resolve among situations with different levels of uncertainty is discussed
Fluctuation, stationarity, and ergodic properties of random-matrix ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pandey, A.
1979-01-01
The properties of random-matrix ensembles and the application of such ensembles to energy-level fluctuations and strength fluctuations are discussed. The two-point correlation function for complex spectra described by the three standard Gaussian ensembles is calculated, and its essential simplicity, displayed by an elementary procedure that derives from the dominance of binary correlations. The resultant function is exact for the unitary case and a very good approximation to the orthogonal and symplectic cases. The same procedure yields the spectrum for a Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE) deformed by a pairing interaction. Several extensions are given and relationships to other problems of current interest are discussed. The standard fluctuation measures are rederived for the GOE, and their extensions to the unitary and symplectic cases are given. The measures are shown to derive, for the most part, from the two-point function, and new relationships between them are established, answering some long-standing questions. Some comparisons with experimental values are also made. All the cluster functions, and therefore the fluctuation measures, are shown to be stationary and strongly ergodic, thus justifying the use of random matrices for individual spectra. Strength fluctuations in the orthogonal ensemble are also considered. The Porter-Thomas distribution in its various forms is rederived and its ergodicity is established
Visualizing Confidence in Cluster-Based Ensemble Weather Forecast Analyses.
Kumpf, Alexander; Tost, Bianca; Baumgart, Marlene; Riemer, Michael; Westermann, Rudiger; Rautenhaus, Marc
2018-01-01
In meteorology, cluster analysis is frequently used to determine representative trends in ensemble weather predictions in a selected spatio-temporal region, e.g., to reduce a set of ensemble members to simplify and improve their analysis. Identified clusters (i.e., groups of similar members), however, can be very sensitive to small changes of the selected region, so that clustering results can be misleading and bias subsequent analyses. In this article, we - a team of visualization scientists and meteorologists-deliver visual analytics solutions to analyze the sensitivity of clustering results with respect to changes of a selected region. We propose an interactive visual interface that enables simultaneous visualization of a) the variation in composition of identified clusters (i.e., their robustness), b) the variability in cluster membership for individual ensemble members, and c) the uncertainty in the spatial locations of identified trends. We demonstrate that our solution shows meteorologists how representative a clustering result is, and with respect to which changes in the selected region it becomes unstable. Furthermore, our solution helps to identify those ensemble members which stably belong to a given cluster and can thus be considered similar. In a real-world application case we show how our approach is used to analyze the clustering behavior of different regions in a forecast of "Tropical Cyclone Karl", guiding the user towards the cluster robustness information required for subsequent ensemble analysis.
The Ensembl Web site: mechanics of a genome browser.
Stalker, James; Gibbins, Brian; Meidl, Patrick; Smith, James; Spooner, William; Hotz, Hans-Rudolf; Cox, Antony V
2004-05-01
The Ensembl Web site (http://www.ensembl.org/) is the principal user interface to the data of the Ensembl project, and currently serves >500,000 pages (approximately 2.5 million hits) per week, providing access to >80 GB (gigabyte) of data to users in more than 80 countries. Built atop an open-source platform comprising Apache/mod_perl and the MySQL relational database management system, it is modular, extensible, and freely available. It is being actively reused and extended in several different projects, and has been downloaded and installed in companies and academic institutions worldwide. Here, we describe some of the technical features of the site, with particular reference to its dynamic configuration that enables it to handle disparate data from multiple species.
Deviations from Wick's theorem in the canonical ensemble
Schönhammer, K.
2017-07-01
Wick's theorem for the expectation values of products of field operators for a system of noninteracting fermions or bosons plays an important role in the perturbative approach to the quantum many-body problem. A finite-temperature version holds in the framework of the grand canonical ensemble, but not for the canonical ensemble appropriate for systems with fixed particle number such as ultracold quantum gases in optical lattices. Here we present formulas for expectation values of products of field operators in the canonical ensemble using a method in the spirit of Gaudin's proof of Wick's theorem for the grand canonical case. The deviations from Wick's theorem are examined quantitatively for two simple models of noninteracting fermions.
Statistical ensembles and molecular dynamics studies of anisotropic solids. II
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ray, J.R.; Rahman, A.
1985-01-01
We have recently discussed how the Parrinello--Rahman theory can be brought into accord with the theory of the elastic and thermodynamic behavior of anisotropic media. This involves the isoenthalpic--isotension ensemble of statistical mechanics. Nose has developed a canonical ensemble form of molecular dynamics. We combine Nose's ideas with the Parrinello--Rahman theory to obtain a canonical form of molecular dynamics appropriate to the study of anisotropic media subjected to arbitrary external stress. We employ this isothermal--isotension ensemble in a study of a fcc→ close-packed structural phase transformation in a Lennard-Jones solid subjected to uniaxial compression. Our interpretation of the Nose theory does not involve a scaling of the time variable. This latter fact leads to simplifications when studying the time dependence of quantities
Evaluation of LDA Ensembles Classifiers for Brain Computer Interface
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Arjona, Cristian; Pentácolo, José; Gareis, Iván; Atum, Yanina; Gentiletti, Gerardo; Acevedo, Rubén; Rufiner, Leonardo
2011-01-01
The Brain Computer Interface (BCI) translates brain activity into computer commands. To increase the performance of the BCI, to decode the user intentions it is necessary to get better the feature extraction and classification techniques. In this article the performance of a three linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifiers ensemble is studied. The system based on ensemble can theoretically achieved better classification results than the individual counterpart, regarding individual classifier generation algorithm and the procedures for combine their outputs. Classic algorithms based on ensembles such as bagging and boosting are discussed here. For the application on BCI, it was concluded that the generated results using ER and AUC as performance index do not give enough information to establish which configuration is better.
Adiabatic passage and ensemble control of quantum systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Leghtas, Z; Sarlette, A; Rouchon, P
2011-01-01
This paper considers population transfer between eigenstates of a finite quantum ladder controlled by a classical electric field. Using an appropriate change of variables, we show that this setting can be set in the framework of adiabatic passage, which is known to facilitate ensemble control of quantum systems. Building on this insight, we present a mathematical proof of robustness for a control protocol-chirped pulse-practised by experimentalists to drive an ensemble of quantum systems from the ground state to the most excited state. We then propose new adiabatic control protocols using a single chirped and amplitude-shaped pulse, to robustly perform any permutation of eigenstate populations, on an ensemble of systems with unknown coupling strengths. These adiabatic control protocols are illustrated by simulations on a four-level ladder.
Generation of Exotic Quantum States of a Cold Atomic Ensemble
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Stefan Lund
Over the last decades quantum effects have become more and more controllable, leading to the implementations of various quantum information protocols. These protocols are all based on utilizing quantum correlation. In this thesis we consider how states of an atomic ensemble with such correlations...... can be created and characterized. First we consider a spin-squeezed state. This state is generated by performing quantum non-demolition measurements of the atomic population difference. We show a spectroscopically relevant noise reduction of -1.7dB, the ensemble is in a many-body entangled state...... — a nanofiber based light-atom interface. Using a dual-frequency probing method we measure and prepare an ensemble with a sub-Poissonian atom number distribution. This is a first step towards the implementation of more exotic quantum states....
Optical properties of indium phosphide nanowire ensembles at various temperatures
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lohn, Andrew J; Onishi, Takehiro; Kobayashi, Nobuhiko P [Baskin School of Engineering, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Nanostructured Energy Conversion Technology and Research (NECTAR), Advanced Studies Laboratories, University of California Santa Cruz-NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States)
2010-09-03
Ensembles that contain two types (zincblende and wurtzite) of indium phosphide nanowires grown on non-single crystalline surfaces were studied by micro-photoluminescence and micro-Raman spectroscopy at various low temperatures. The obtained spectra are discussed with the emphasis on the effects of differing lattice types, geometries, and crystallographic orientations present within an ensemble of nanowires grown on non-single crystalline surfaces. In the photoluminescence spectra, a typical Varshni dependence of band gap energy on temperature was observed for emissions from zincblende nanowires and in the high temperature regime energy transfer from excitonic transitions and band-edge transitions was identified. In contrast, the photoluminescence emissions associated with wurtzite nanowires were rather insensitive to temperature. Raman spectra were collected simultaneously from zincblende and wurtzite nanowires coexisting in an ensemble. Raman peaks of the wurtzite nanowires are interpreted as those related to the zincblende nanowires by a folding of the phonon dispersion.
Optical properties of indium phosphide nanowire ensembles at various temperatures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lohn, Andrew J; Onishi, Takehiro; Kobayashi, Nobuhiko P
2010-01-01
Ensembles that contain two types (zincblende and wurtzite) of indium phosphide nanowires grown on non-single crystalline surfaces were studied by micro-photoluminescence and micro-Raman spectroscopy at various low temperatures. The obtained spectra are discussed with the emphasis on the effects of differing lattice types, geometries, and crystallographic orientations present within an ensemble of nanowires grown on non-single crystalline surfaces. In the photoluminescence spectra, a typical Varshni dependence of band gap energy on temperature was observed for emissions from zincblende nanowires and in the high temperature regime energy transfer from excitonic transitions and band-edge transitions was identified. In contrast, the photoluminescence emissions associated with wurtzite nanowires were rather insensitive to temperature. Raman spectra were collected simultaneously from zincblende and wurtzite nanowires coexisting in an ensemble. Raman peaks of the wurtzite nanowires are interpreted as those related to the zincblende nanowires by a folding of the phonon dispersion.
Spatio-temporal behaviour of medium-range ensemble forecasts
Kipling, Zak; Primo, Cristina; Charlton-Perez, Andrew
2010-05-01
Using the recently-developed mean-variance of logarithms (MVL) diagram, together with the TIGGE archive of medium-range ensemble forecasts from nine different centres, we present an analysis of the spatio-temporal dynamics of their perturbations, and show how the differences between models and perturbation techniques can explain the shape of their characteristic MVL curves. We also consider the use of the MVL diagram to compare the growth of perturbations within the ensemble with the growth of the forecast error, showing that there is a much closer correspondence for some models than others. We conclude by looking at how the MVL technique might assist in selecting models for inclusion in a multi-model ensemble, and suggest an experiment to test its potential in this context.
Efficient Kernel-Based Ensemble Gaussian Mixture Filtering
Liu, Bo
2015-11-11
We consider the Bayesian filtering problem for data assimilation following the kernel-based ensemble Gaussian-mixture filtering (EnGMF) approach introduced by Anderson and Anderson (1999). In this approach, the posterior distribution of the system state is propagated with the model using the ensemble Monte Carlo method, providing a forecast ensemble that is then used to construct a prior Gaussian-mixture (GM) based on the kernel density estimator. This results in two update steps: a Kalman filter (KF)-like update of the ensemble members and a particle filter (PF)-like update of the weights, followed by a resampling step to start a new forecast cycle. After formulating EnGMF for any observational operator, we analyze the influence of the bandwidth parameter of the kernel function on the covariance of the posterior distribution. We then focus on two aspects: i) the efficient implementation of EnGMF with (relatively) small ensembles, where we propose a new deterministic resampling strategy preserving the first two moments of the posterior GM to limit the sampling error; and ii) the analysis of the effect of the bandwidth parameter on contributions of KF and PF updates and on the weights variance. Numerical results using the Lorenz-96 model are presented to assess the behavior of EnGMF with deterministic resampling, study its sensitivity to different parameters and settings, and evaluate its performance against ensemble KFs. The proposed EnGMF approach with deterministic resampling suggests improved estimates in all tested scenarios, and is shown to require less localization and to be less sensitive to the choice of filtering parameters.
A Brief Tutorial on the Ensemble Kalman Filter
Mandel, Jan
2009-01-01
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a recursive filter suitable for problems with a large number of variables, such as discretizations of partial differential equations in geophysical models. The EnKF originated as a version of the Kalman filter for large problems (essentially, the covariance matrix is replaced by the sample covariance), and it is now an important data assimilation component of ensemble forecasting. EnKF is related to the particle filter (in this context, a particle is the s...
A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan
2012-01-01
As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...... of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset...
Breaking of ensembles of linear and nonlinear oscillators
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buts, V.A.
2016-01-01
Some results concerning the study of the dynamics of ensembles of linear and nonlinear oscillators are stated. It is shown that, in general, a stable ensemble of linear oscillator has a limited number of oscillators. This number has been defined for some simple models. It is shown that the features of the dynamics of linear oscillators can be used for conversion of the low-frequency energy oscillations into high frequency oscillations. The dynamics of coupled nonlinear oscillators in most cases is chaotic. For such a case, it is shown that the statistical characteristics (moments) of chaotic motion can significantly reduce potential barriers that keep the particles in the capture region
Reservoir History Matching Using Ensemble Kalman Filters with Anamorphosis Transforms
Aman, Beshir M.
2012-12-01
This work aims to enhance the Ensemble Kalman Filter performance by transforming the non-Gaussian state variables into Gaussian variables to be a step closer to optimality. This is done by using univariate and multivariate Box-Cox transformation. Some History matching methods such as Kalman filter, particle filter and the ensemble Kalman filter are reviewed and applied to a test case in the reservoir application. The key idea is to apply the transformation before the update step and then transform back after applying the Kalman correction. In general, the results of the multivariate method was promising, despite the fact it over-estimated some variables.
A short-range ensemble prediction system for southern Africa
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Park, R
2012-10-01
Full Text Available system for southern Africa R PARK, WA LANDMAN AND F ENGELBRECHT CSIR, PO Box 395, Pretoria, South Africa, 0001 Email: xxxxxxxxxxxxxx@csir.co.za ? www.csir.co.za INTRODUCTION This research has been conducted in order to develop a short-range ensemble... stream_source_info Park_2012.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 7211 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name Park_2012.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 A short-range ensemble prediction...
Good and Bad Neighborhood Approximations for Outlier Detection Ensembles
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kirner, Evelyn; Schubert, Erich; Zimek, Arthur
2017-01-01
Outlier detection methods have used approximate neighborhoods in filter-refinement approaches. Outlier detection ensembles have used artificially obfuscated neighborhoods to achieve diverse ensemble members. Here we argue that outlier detection models could be based on approximate neighborhoods...... in the first place, thus gaining in both efficiency and effectiveness. It depends, however, on the type of approximation, as only some seem beneficial for the task of outlier detection, while no (large) benefit can be seen for others. In particular, we argue that space-filling curves are beneficial...
Ensemble system for Part-of-Speech tagging
Dell'Orletta, Felice
2009-01-01
The paper contains a description of the Felice-POS-Tagger and of its performance in Evalita 2009. Felice-POS-Tagger is an ensemble system that combines six different POS taggers. When evaluated on the official test set, the ensemble system outperforms each of the single tagger components and achieves the highest accuracy score in Evalita 2009 POS Closed Task. It is shown rst that the errors made from the dierent taggers are complementary, and then how to use this complementary behavior to the...
The canonical ensemble redefined - 3. Ideal Bose gas
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Venkataraman, R.
1984-12-01
The ideal Bose gas solved in the redefined ensemble formalism exhibits a discontinuity in the specific heat suggesting that Bose-Einstein condensation is a second order phase transition. The deviations from the classical ideal gas behaviour are larger than those predicted by Gibbs ensemble. Below Tsub(c) the pressure is not independent of the volume. For a certain range of values of VT 3 , the peak in black body radiation shows a shift in the frequency scale and this could be detected, at least in principle, experimentally. (author)
Kohn-Sham Theory for Ground-State Ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ullrich, C. A.; Kohn, W.
2001-01-01
An electron density distribution n(r) which can be represented by that of a single-determinant ground state of noninteracting electrons in an external potential v(r) is called pure-state v -representable (P-VR). Most physical electronic systems are P-VR. Systems which require a weighted sum of several such determinants to represent their density are called ensemble v -representable (E-VR). This paper develops formal Kohn-Sham equations for E-VR physical systems, using the appropriate coupling constant integration. It also derives local density- and generalized gradient approximations, and conditions and corrections specific to ensembles
Learning to Run with Actor-Critic Ensemble
Huang, Zhewei; Zhou, Shuchang; Zhuang, BoEr; Zhou, Xinyu
2017-01-01
We introduce an Actor-Critic Ensemble(ACE) method for improving the performance of Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient(DDPG) algorithm. At inference time, our method uses a critic ensemble to select the best action from proposals of multiple actors running in parallel. By having a larger candidate set, our method can avoid actions that have fatal consequences, while staying deterministic. Using ACE, we have won the 2nd place in NIPS'17 Learning to Run competition, under the name of "Megvii-hzw...
Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.
2016-12-01
Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling
Wang, Pei; Xianlong, Gao; Li, Haibin
2013-08-01
It is demonstrated in many thermodynamic textbooks that the equivalence of the different ensembles is achieved in the thermodynamic limit. In this present work we discuss the inequivalence of microcanonical and canonical ensembles in a finite ultracold system at low energies. We calculate the microcanonical momentum distribution function (MDF) in a system of identical fermions (bosons). We find that the microcanonical MDF deviates from the canonical one, which is the Fermi-Dirac (Bose-Einstein) function, in a finite system at low energies where the single-particle density of states and its inverse are finite.
Whitaker, Leslie R; Warren, Brandon L; Venniro, Marco; Harte, Tyler C; McPherson, Kylie B; Beidel, Jennifer; Bossert, Jennifer M; Shaham, Yavin; Bonci, Antonello; Hope, Bruce T
2017-09-06
Learned associations between environmental stimuli and rewards drive goal-directed learning and motivated behavior. These memories are thought to be encoded by alterations within specific patterns of sparsely distributed neurons called neuronal ensembles that are activated selectively by reward-predictive stimuli. Here, we use the Fos promoter to identify strongly activated neuronal ensembles in rat prelimbic cortex (PLC) and assess altered intrinsic excitability after 10 d of operant food self-administration training (1 h/d). First, we used the Daun02 inactivation procedure in male FosLacZ-transgenic rats to ablate selectively Fos-expressing PLC neurons that were active during operant food self-administration. Selective ablation of these neurons decreased food seeking. We then used male FosGFP-transgenic rats to assess selective alterations of intrinsic excitability in Fos-expressing neuronal ensembles (FosGFP + ) that were activated during food self-administration and compared these with alterations in less activated non-ensemble neurons (FosGFP - ). Using whole-cell recordings of layer V pyramidal neurons in an ex vivo brain slice preparation, we found that operant self-administration increased excitability of FosGFP + neurons and decreased excitability of FosGFP - neurons. Increased excitability of FosGFP + neurons was driven by increased steady-state input resistance. Decreased excitability of FosGFP - neurons was driven by increased contribution of small-conductance calcium-activated potassium (SK) channels. Injections of the specific SK channel antagonist apamin into PLC increased Fos expression but had no effect on food seeking. Overall, operant learning increased intrinsic excitability of PLC Fos-expressing neuronal ensembles that play a role in food seeking but decreased intrinsic excitability of Fos - non-ensembles. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Prefrontal cortex activity plays a critical role in operant learning, but the underlying cellular mechanisms are
Development of multimodel ensemble based district level medium ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
tively by computing the anomaly correlation coef- ficient between the predicted rainfall and observed rainfall. High resolution (lat./long.) gridded data ..... particularly in the prediction of intensity and mesoscale rainfall features causing inland flooding. During recent years, Ensemble. Prediction System (EPS) has emerged as ...
ENSEMBLE methods to reconcile disparate national long range dispersion forecasting
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mikkelsen, T; Galmarini, S; Bianconi, R; French, S [eds.
2003-11-01
ENSEMBLE is a web-based decision support system for real-time exchange and evaluation of national long-range dispersion forecasts of nuclear releases with cross-boundary consequences. The system is developed with the purpose to reconcile among disparate national forecasts for long-range dispersion. ENSEMBLE addresses the problem of achieving a common coherent strategy across European national emergency management when national long-range dispersion forecasts differ from one another during an accidental atmospheric release of radioactive material. A series of new decision-making 'ENSEMBLE' procedures and Web-based software evaluation and exchange tools have been created for real-time reconciliation and harmonisation of real-time dispersion forecasts from meteorological and emergency centres across Europe during an accident. The new ENSEMBLE software tools is available to participating national emergency and meteorological forecasting centres, which may choose to integrate them directly into operational emergency information systems, or possibly use them as a basis for future system development. (au)
Korean Percussion Ensemble ("Samulnori") in the General Music Classroom
Kang, Sangmi; Yoo, Hyesoo
2016-01-01
This article introduces "samulnori" (Korean percussion ensemble), its cultural background, and instructional methods as parts of a classroom approach to teaching upper-level general music. We introduce five of eight sections from "youngnam nong-ak" (a style of samulnori) as a repertoire for teaching Korean percussion music to…
Inhomogeneous ensembles of radical pairs in chemical compasses
Procopio, Maria; Ritz, Thorsten
2016-11-01
The biophysical basis for the ability of animals to detect the geomagnetic field and to use it for finding directions remains a mystery of sensory biology. One much debated hypothesis suggests that an ensemble of specialized light-induced radical pair reactions can provide the primary signal for a magnetic compass sensor. The question arises what features of such a radical pair ensemble could be optimized by evolution so as to improve the detection of the direction of weak magnetic fields. Here, we focus on the overlooked aspect of the noise arising from inhomogeneity of copies of biomolecules in a realistic biological environment. Such inhomogeneity leads to variations of the radical pair parameters, thereby deteriorating the signal arising from an ensemble and providing a source of noise. We investigate the effect of variations in hyperfine interactions between different copies of simple radical pairs on the directional response of a compass system. We find that the choice of radical pair parameters greatly influences how strongly the directional response of an ensemble is affected by inhomogeneity.
ENSEMBLE methods to reconcile disparate national long range dispersion forecasting
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mikkelsen, T.; Galmarini, S.; Bianconi, R.; French, S. (eds.)
2003-11-01
ENSEMBLE is a web-based decision support system for real-time exchange and evaluation of national long-range dispersion forecasts of nuclear releases with cross-boundary consequences. The system is developed with the purpose to reconcile among disparate national forecasts for long-range dispersion. ENSEMBLE addresses the problem of achieving a common coherent strategy across European national emergency management when national long-range dispersion forecasts differ from one another during an accidental atmospheric release of radioactive material. A series of new decision-making 'ENSEMBLE' procedures and Web-based software evaluation and exchange tools have been created for real-time reconciliation and harmonisation of real-time dispersion forecasts from meteorological and emergency centres across Europe during an accident. The new ENSEMBLE software tools is available to participating national emergency and meteorological forecasting centres, which may choose to integrate them directly into operational emergency information systems, or possibly use them as a basis for future system development. (au)
Power to Detect Intervention Effects on Ensembles of Social Networks
Sweet, Tracy M.; Junker, Brian W.
2016-01-01
The hierarchical network model (HNM) is a framework introduced by Sweet, Thomas, and Junker for modeling interventions and other covariate effects on ensembles of social networks, such as what would be found in randomized controlled trials in education research. In this article, we develop calculations for the power to detect an intervention…
Music Ensemble Participation: Personality Traits and Music Experience
Torrance, Tracy A.; Bugos, Jennifer A.
2017-01-01
The purpose of this study was two-fold: (1) to examine the relationship between personality type and ensemble choice and (2) to examine the differences in personality across age and music experience in young adults. Participants (N = 137; 68 instrumentalists, 69 vocalists) completed a demographic survey and the Big Five Personality Inventory.…
Enhancing COSMO-DE ensemble forecasts by inexpensive techniques
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zied Ben Bouallègue
2013-02-01
Full Text Available COSMO-DE-EPS, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system based on the high-resolution numerical weather prediction model COSMO-DE, is pre-operational since December 2010, providing probabilistic forecasts which cover Germany. This ensemble system comprises 20 members based on variations of the lateral boundary conditions, the physics parameterizations and the initial conditions. In order to increase the sample size in a computationally inexpensive way, COSMO-DE-EPS is combined with alternative ensemble techniques: the neighborhood method and the time-lagged approach. Their impact on the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts is assessed. Objective verification is performed over a six months period, scores based on the Brier score and its decomposition are shown for June 2011. The combination of the ensemble system with the alternative approaches improves probabilistic forecasts of precipitation in particular for high precipitation thresholds. Moreover, combining COSMO-DE-EPS with only the time-lagged approach improves the skill of area probabilities for precipitation and does not deteriorate the skill of 2 m-temperature and wind gusts forecasts.
Dynamics of heterogeneous oscillator ensembles in terms of collective variables
Pikovsky, Arkady; Rosenblum, Michael
2011-04-01
We consider general heterogeneous ensembles of phase oscillators, sine coupled to arbitrary external fields. Starting with the infinitely large ensembles, we extend the Watanabe-Strogatz theory, valid for identical oscillators, to cover the case of an arbitrary parameter distribution. The obtained equations yield the description of the ensemble dynamics in terms of collective variables and constants of motion. As a particular case of the general setup we consider hierarchically organized ensembles, consisting of a finite number of subpopulations, whereas the number of elements in a subpopulation can be both finite or infinite. Next, we link the Watanabe-Strogatz and Ott-Antonsen theories and demonstrate that the latter one corresponds to a particular choice of constants of motion. The approach is applied to the standard Kuramoto-Sakaguchi model, to its extension for the case of nonlinear coupling, and to the description of two interacting subpopulations, exhibiting a chimera state. With these examples we illustrate that, although the asymptotic dynamics can be found within the framework of the Ott-Antonsen theory, the transients depend on the constants of motion. The most dramatic effect is the dependence of the basins of attraction of different synchronous regimes on the initial configuration of phases.
Modelling of drug release from ensembles of aspirin microcapsules ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Purpose: In order to determine the drug release profile of an ensemble of aspirin crystals or microcapsules from its particle distribution a mathematical model that considered the individual release characteristics of the component single particles was developed. The model assumed that under sink conditions the release ...
Cavity quantum electrodynamics with a Rydberg-blocked atomic ensemble
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Guerlin, Christine; Brion, Etienne; Esslinger, Tilman
2010-01-01
The realization of a Jaynes-Cummings model in the optical domain is proposed for an atomic ensemble. The scheme exploits the collective coupling of the atoms to a quantized cavity mode and the nonlinearity introduced by coupling to high-lying Rydberg states. A two-photon transition resonantly cou...
Random walk loop soups and conformal loop ensembles
van de Brug, T.; Camia, F.; Lis, M.
2016-01-01
The random walk loop soup is a Poissonian ensemble of lattice loops; it has been extensively studied because of its connections to the discrete Gaussian free field, but was originally introduced by Lawler and Trujillo Ferreras as a discrete version of the Brownian loop soup of Lawler and Werner, a
Impact of hybrid GSI analysis using ETR ensembles
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Impact of hybrid GSI analysis using ETR ensembles. V S Prasad∗ and C J .... In this study, impact of hybrid ..... of water between vapour, clouds and ice (Damrath et al. 2000). ... flooding – June 2013; Weather and Climate Extremes 4. 22–34.
Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method
Wang, Tong
2016-08-20
An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.
Stacking Ensemble Learning for Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecasting
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Federico Divina
2018-04-01
Full Text Available The ability to predict short-term electric energy demand would provide several benefits, both at the economic and environmental level. For example, it would allow for an efficient use of resources in order to face the actual demand, reducing the costs associated to the production as well as the emission of CO 2 . To this aim, in this paper we propose a strategy based on ensemble learning in order to tackle the short-term load forecasting problem. In particular, our approach is based on a stacking ensemble learning scheme, where the predictions produced by three base learning methods are used by a top level method in order to produce final predictions. We tested the proposed scheme on a dataset reporting the energy consumption in Spain over more than nine years. The obtained experimental results show that an approach for short-term electricity consumption forecasting based on ensemble learning can help in combining predictions produced by weaker learning methods in order to obtain superior results. In particular, the system produces a lower error with respect to the existing state-of-the art techniques used on the same dataset. More importantly, this case study has shown that using an ensemble scheme can achieve very accurate predictions, and thus that it is a suitable approach for addressing the short-term load forecasting problem.
An ensemble approach to the evolution of complex systems
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
2014-03-15
Mar 15, 2014 ... [Arpağ G and Erzan A 2014 An ensemble approach to the evolution of complex systems. J. Biosci. ... almost nothing about all the different ways in which your ...... energy cost to the organism of the maintenance, replication,.
Exploiting ensemble learning for automatic cataract detection and grading.
Yang, Ji-Jiang; Li, Jianqiang; Shen, Ruifang; Zeng, Yang; He, Jian; Bi, Jing; Li, Yong; Zhang, Qinyan; Peng, Lihui; Wang, Qing
2016-02-01
Cataract is defined as a lenticular opacity presenting usually with poor visual acuity. It is one of the most common causes of visual impairment worldwide. Early diagnosis demands the expertise of trained healthcare professionals, which may present a barrier to early intervention due to underlying costs. To date, studies reported in the literature utilize a single learning model for retinal image classification in grading cataract severity. We present an ensemble learning based approach as a means to improving diagnostic accuracy. Three independent feature sets, i.e., wavelet-, sketch-, and texture-based features, are extracted from each fundus image. For each feature set, two base learning models, i.e., Support Vector Machine and Back Propagation Neural Network, are built. Then, the ensemble methods, majority voting and stacking, are investigated to combine the multiple base learning models for final fundus image classification. Empirical experiments are conducted for cataract detection (two-class task, i.e., cataract or non-cataractous) and cataract grading (four-class task, i.e., non-cataractous, mild, moderate or severe) tasks. The best performance of the ensemble classifier is 93.2% and 84.5% in terms of the correct classification rates for cataract detection and grading tasks, respectively. The results demonstrate that the ensemble classifier outperforms the single learning model significantly, which also illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Reliability of windstorm predictions in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
Becker, Nico; Ulbrich, Uwe
2016-04-01
Windstorms caused by extratropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in the European region. Therefore, reliable predictions of such storm events are needed. Case studies have shown that ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are able to provide useful information about windstorms between two and five days prior to the event. In this work, ensemble predictions with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS are evaluated in a four year period. Within the 50 ensemble members, which are initialized every 12 hours and are run for 10 days, windstorms are identified and tracked in time and space. By using a clustering approach, different predictions of the same storm are identified in the different ensemble members and compared to reanalysis data. The occurrence probability of the predicted storms is estimated by fitting a bivariate normal distribution to the storm track positions. Our results show, for example, that predicted storm clusters with occurrence probabilities of more than 50% have a matching observed storm in 80% of all cases at a lead time of two days. The predicted occurrence probabilities are reliable up to 3 days lead time. At longer lead times the occurrence probabilities are overestimated by the EPS.
Social behaviour shapes hypothalamic neural ensemble representations of conspecific sex
Remedios, Ryan; Kennedy, Ann; Zelikowsky, Moriel; Grewe, Benjamin F.; Schnitzer, Mark J.; Anderson, David J.
2017-10-01
All animals possess a repertoire of innate (or instinctive) behaviours, which can be performed without training. Whether such behaviours are mediated by anatomically distinct and/or genetically specified neural pathways remains unknown. Here we report that neural representations within the mouse hypothalamus, that underlie innate social behaviours, are shaped by social experience. Oestrogen receptor 1-expressing (Esr1+) neurons in the ventrolateral subdivision of the ventromedial hypothalamus (VMHvl) control mating and fighting in rodents. We used microendoscopy to image Esr1+ neuronal activity in the VMHvl of male mice engaged in these social behaviours. In sexually and socially experienced adult males, divergent and characteristic neural ensembles represented male versus female conspecifics. However, in inexperienced adult males, male and female intruders activated overlapping neuronal populations. Sex-specific neuronal ensembles gradually separated as the mice acquired social and sexual experience. In mice permitted to investigate but not to mount or attack conspecifics, ensemble divergence did not occur. However, 30 minutes of sexual experience with a female was sufficient to promote the separation of male and female ensembles and to induce an attack response 24 h later. These observations uncover an unexpected social experience-dependent component to the formation of hypothalamic neural assemblies controlling innate social behaviours. More generally, they reveal plasticity and dynamic coding in an evolutionarily ancient deep subcortical structure that is traditionally viewed as a ‘hard-wired’ system.
Influence of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on model performance
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Dalton, A
2014-10-01
Full Text Available Conference of South African Society for Atmospheric Sciences (SASAS), Potchefstroom, 1-2 October 2014 Influence of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on model performance Amaris Dalton*¹, Willem A. Landman ¹ʾ² ¹Departmen of Geography, Geo...
Efficient Kernel-Based Ensemble Gaussian Mixture Filtering
Liu, Bo; Ait-El-Fquih, Boujemaa; Hoteit, Ibrahim
2015-01-01
(KF)-like update of the ensemble members and a particle filter (PF)-like update of the weights, followed by a resampling step to start a new forecast cycle. After formulating EnGMF for any observational operator, we analyze the influence
Bayesian model ensembling using meta-trained recurrent neural networks
Ambrogioni, L.; Berezutskaya, Y.; Gü ç lü , U.; Borne, E.W.P. van den; Gü ç lü tü rk, Y.; Gerven, M.A.J. van; Maris, E.G.G.
2017-01-01
In this paper we demonstrate that a recurrent neural network meta-trained on an ensemble of arbitrary classification tasks can be used as an approximation of the Bayes optimal classifier. This result is obtained by relying on the framework of e-free approximate Bayesian inference, where the Bayesian
Short-term ensemble radar rainfall forecasts for hydrological applications
Codo de Oliveira, M.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.
2016-12-01
Flooding is a very common natural disaster around the world, putting local population and economy at risk. Forecasting floods several hours ahead and issuing warnings are of main importance to permit proper response in emergency situations. However, it is important to know the uncertainties related to the rainfall forecasting in order to produce more reliable forecasts. Nowcasting models (short-term rainfall forecasts) are able to produce high spatial and temporal resolution predictions that are useful in hydrological applications. Nonetheless, they are subject to uncertainties mainly due to the nowcasting model used, errors in radar rainfall estimation, temporal development of the velocity field and to the fact that precipitation processes such as growth and decay are not taken into account. In this study an ensemble generation scheme using rain gauge data as a reference to estimate radars errors is used to produce forecasts with up to 3h lead-time. The ensembles try to assess in a realistic way the residual uncertainties that remain even after correction algorithms are applied in the radar data. The ensembles produced are compered to a stochastic ensemble generator. Furthermore, the rainfall forecast output was used as an input in a hydrodynamic sewer network model and also in hydrological model for catchments of different sizes in north England. A comparative analysis was carried of how was carried out to assess how the radar uncertainties propagate into these models. The first named author is grateful to CAPES - Ciencia sem Fronteiras for funding this PhD research.
Measures of trajectory ensemble disparity in nonequilibrium statistical dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Crooks, Gavin E; Sivak, David A
2011-01-01
Many interesting divergence measures between conjugate ensembles of nonequilibrium trajectories can be experimentally determined from the work distribution of the process. Herein, we review the statistical and physical significance of several of these measures, in particular the relative entropy (dissipation), Jeffreys divergence (hysteresis), Jensen–Shannon divergence (time-asymmetry), Chernoff divergence (work cumulant generating function), and Rényi divergence
Ensemble modeling for aromatic production in Escherichia coli.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Matthew L Rizk
2009-09-01
Full Text Available Ensemble Modeling (EM is a recently developed method for metabolic modeling, particularly for utilizing the effect of enzyme tuning data on the production of a specific compound to refine the model. This approach is used here to investigate the production of aromatic products in Escherichia coli. Instead of using dynamic metabolite data to fit a model, the EM approach uses phenotypic data (effects of enzyme overexpression or knockouts on the steady state production rate to screen possible models. These data are routinely generated during strain design. An ensemble of models is constructed that all reach the same steady state and are based on the same mechanistic framework at the elementary reaction level. The behavior of the models spans the kinetics allowable by thermodynamics. Then by using existing data from the literature for the overexpression of genes coding for transketolase (Tkt, transaldolase (Tal, and phosphoenolpyruvate synthase (Pps to screen the ensemble, we arrive at a set of models that properly describes the known enzyme overexpression phenotypes. This subset of models becomes more predictive as additional data are used to refine the models. The final ensemble of models demonstrates the characteristic of the cell that Tkt is the first rate controlling step, and correctly predicts that only after Tkt is overexpressed does an increase in Pps increase the production rate of aromatics. This work demonstrates that EM is able to capture the result of enzyme overexpression on aromatic producing bacteria by successfully utilizing routinely generated enzyme tuning data to guide model learning.
Canonical Ensemble Model for Black Hole Horizon of Schwarzschild ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Abstract. In this paper, we use the canonical ensemble model to discuss the radiation of a Schwarzschild–de Sitter black hole on the black hole horizon. Using this model, we calculate the probability distribution from function of the emission shell. And the statistical meaning which compare with the distribution function is ...
Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning
O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.
2017-12-01
Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.
Tweet-based Target Market Classification Using Ensemble Method
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Muhammad Adi Khairul Anshary
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Target market classification is aimed at focusing marketing activities on the right targets. Classification of target markets can be done through data mining and by utilizing data from social media, e.g. Twitter. The end result of data mining are learning models that can classify new data. Ensemble methods can improve the accuracy of the models and therefore provide better results. In this study, classification of target markets was conducted on a dataset of 3000 tweets in order to extract features. Classification models were constructed to manipulate the training data using two ensemble methods (bagging and boosting. To investigate the effectiveness of the ensemble methods, this study used the CART (classification and regression tree algorithm for comparison. Three categories of consumer goods (computers, mobile phones and cameras and three categories of sentiments (positive, negative and neutral were classified towards three target-market categories. Machine learning was performed using Weka 3.6.9. The results of the test data showed that the bagging method improved the accuracy of CART with 1.9% (to 85.20%. On the other hand, for sentiment classification, the ensemble methods were not successful in increasing the accuracy of CART. The results of this study may be taken into consideration by companies who approach their customers through social media, especially Twitter.
A grand-canonical ensemble of randomly triangulated surfaces
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jurkiewicz, J.; Krzywicki, A.; Petersson, B.
1986-01-01
An algorithm is presented generating the grand-canonical ensemble of discrete, randomly triangulated Polyakov surfaces. The algorithm is used to calculate the susceptibility exponent, which controls the existence of the continuum limit of the considered model, for the dimensionality of the embedding space ranging from 0 to 20. (orig.)
Peer-Teaching in the Secondary Music Ensemble
Johnson, Erik
2015-01-01
Peer-teaching is an instructional technique that has been used by teachers world-wide to successfully engage, exercise and deepen student learning. Yet, in some instances, teachers find the application of peer-teaching in large music ensembles at the secondary level to be daunting. This article is meant to be a practical resource for secondary…
Light localization in cold and dense atomic ensemble
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sokolov, Igor
2017-01-01
We report on results of theoretical analysis of possibilities of light strong (Anderson) localization in a cold atomic ensemble. We predict appearance of localization in dense atomic systems in strong magnetic field. We prove that in absence of the field the light localization is impossible. (paper)
The egg model - a geological ensemble for reservoir simulation
Jansen, J.D.; Fonseca, R.M.; Kahrobaei, S.; Siraj, M.M.; Essen, van G.M.; Hof, Van den P.M.J.
2014-01-01
The ‘Egg Model’ is a synthetic reservoir model consisting of an ensemble of 101 relatively small three-dimensional realizations of a channelized oil reservoir produced under water flooding conditions with eight water injectors and four oil producers. It has been used in numerous publications to
Precision bounds for gradient magnetometry with atomic ensembles
Apellaniz, Iagoba; Urizar-Lanz, Iñigo; Zimborás, Zoltán; Hyllus, Philipp; Tóth, Géza
2018-05-01
We study gradient magnetometry with an ensemble of atoms with arbitrary spin. We calculate precision bounds for estimating the gradient of the magnetic field based on the quantum Fisher information. For quantum states that are invariant under homogeneous magnetic fields, we need to measure a single observable to estimate the gradient. On the other hand, for states that are sensitive to homogeneous fields, a simultaneous measurement is needed, as the homogeneous field must also be estimated. We prove that for the cases studied in this paper, such a measurement is feasible. We present a method to calculate precision bounds for gradient estimation with a chain of atoms or with two spatially separated atomic ensembles. We also consider a single atomic ensemble with an arbitrary density profile, where the atoms cannot be addressed individually, and which is a very relevant case for experiments. Our model can take into account even correlations between particle positions. While in most of the discussion we consider an ensemble of localized particles that are classical with respect to their spatial degree of freedom, we also discuss the case of gradient metrology with a single Bose-Einstein condensate.
Random matrix ensembles with random interactions: Results for ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
... Public Lectures · Lecture Workshops · Refresher Courses · Symposia · Live Streaming. Home; Journals; Pramana – Journal of Physics; Volume 73; Issue 3. Random matrix ensembles with random interactions: Results for EGUE(2)-(4). Manan Vyas Manan Vyas. Volume 73 Issue 3 September 2009 pp 521-531 ...
An Ensemble Approach in Converging Contents of LMS and KMS
Sabitha, A. Sai; Mehrotra, Deepti; Bansal, Abhay
2017-01-01
Currently the challenges in e-Learning are converging the learning content from various sources and managing them within e-learning practices. Data mining learning algorithms can be used and the contents can be converged based on the Metadata of the objects. Ensemble methods use multiple learning algorithms and it can be used to converge the…
Fire spread estimation on forest wildfire using ensemble kalman filter
Syarifah, Wardatus; Apriliani, Erna
2018-04-01
Wildfire is one of the most frequent disasters in the world, for example forest wildfire, causing population of forest decrease. Forest wildfire, whether naturally occurring or prescribed, are potential risks for ecosystems and human settlements. These risks can be managed by monitoring the weather, prescribing fires to limit available fuel, and creating firebreaks. With computer simulations we can predict and explore how fires may spread. The model of fire spread on forest wildfire was established to determine the fire properties. The fire spread model is prepared based on the equation of the diffusion reaction model. There are many methods to estimate the spread of fire. The Kalman Filter Ensemble Method is a modified estimation method of the Kalman Filter algorithm that can be used to estimate linear and non-linear system models. In this research will apply Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method to estimate the spread of fire on forest wildfire. Before applying the EnKF method, the fire spread model will be discreted using finite difference method. At the end, the analysis obtained illustrated by numerical simulation using software. The simulation results show that the Ensemble Kalman Filter method is closer to the system model when the ensemble value is greater, while the covariance value of the system model and the smaller the measurement.
Realization of Deutsch-like algorithm using ensemble computing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wei Daxiu; Luo Jun; Sun Xianping; Zeng Xizhi
2003-01-01
The Deutsch-like algorithm [Phys. Rev. A. 63 (2001) 034101] distinguishes between even and odd query functions using fewer function calls than its possible classical counterpart in a two-qubit system. But the similar method cannot be applied to a multi-qubit system. We propose a new approach for solving Deutsch-like problem using ensemble computing. The proposed algorithm needs an ancillary qubit and can be easily extended to multi-qubit system with one query. Our ensemble algorithm beginning with a easily-prepared initial state has three main steps. The classifications of the functions can be obtained directly from the spectra of the ancilla qubit. We also demonstrate the new algorithm in a four-qubit molecular system using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). One hydrogen and three carbons are selected as the four qubits, and one of carbons is ancilla qubit. We choice two unitary transformations, corresponding to two functions (one odd function and one even function), to validate the ensemble algorithm. The results show that our experiment is successfully and our ensemble algorithm for solving the Deutsch-like problem is virtual
Fsheikh, Ahmed H.; Wheeler, Mary Fanett; Hoteit, Ibrahim
2013-01-01
the dictionary, the solution is obtained by applying Tikhonov regularization. The proposed algorithm relies on approximate gradient estimation using an iterative stochastic ensemble method (ISEM). ISEM utilizes an ensemble of directional derivatives
Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C. Ziehmann
2001-01-01
Full Text Available Ensemble Prediction has become an essential part of numerical weather forecasting. In this paper we investigate the ability of ensemble forecasts to provide an a priori estimate of the expected forecast skill. Several quantities derived from the local ensemble distribution are investigated for a two year data set of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF temperature and wind speed ensemble forecasts at 30 German stations. The results indicate that the population of the ensemble mode provides useful information for the uncertainty in temperature forecasts. The ensemble entropy is a similar good measure. This is not true for the spread if it is simply calculated as the variance of the ensemble members with respect to the ensemble mean. The number of clusters in the C regions is almost unrelated to the local skill. For wind forecasts, the results are less promising.
Non-Boltzmann Ensembles and Monte Carlo Simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Murthy, K. P. N.
2016-01-01
Boltzmann sampling based on Metropolis algorithm has been extensively used for simulating a canonical ensemble and for calculating macroscopic properties of a closed system at desired temperatures. An estimate of a mechanical property, like energy, of an equilibrium system, is made by averaging over a large number microstates generated by Boltzmann Monte Carlo methods. This is possible because we can assign a numerical value for energy to each microstate. However, a thermal property like entropy, is not easily accessible to these methods. The reason is simple. We can not assign a numerical value for entropy, to a microstate. Entropy is not a property associated with any single microstate. It is a collective property of all the microstates. Toward calculating entropy and other thermal properties, a non-Boltzmann Monte Carlo technique called Umbrella sampling was proposed some forty years ago. Umbrella sampling has since undergone several metamorphoses and we have now, multi-canonical Monte Carlo, entropic sampling, flat histogram methods, Wang-Landau algorithm etc . This class of methods generates non-Boltzmann ensembles which are un-physical. However, physical quantities can be calculated as follows. First un-weight a microstates of the entropic ensemble; then re-weight it to the desired physical ensemble. Carry out weighted average over the entropic ensemble to estimate physical quantities. In this talk I shall tell you of the most recent non- Boltzmann Monte Carlo method and show how to calculate free energy for a few systems. We first consider estimation of free energy as a function of energy at different temperatures to characterize phase transition in an hairpin DNA in the presence of an unzipping force. Next we consider free energy as a function of order parameter and to this end we estimate density of states g ( E , M ), as a function of both energy E , and order parameter M . This is carried out in two stages. We estimate g ( E ) in the first stage
Daugherty, James F.
2005-09-01
The tuning accuracy and intonation tendencies of a high school mixed choir (N=46) were measured from digital recordings obtained as the ensemble performed an a cappella motet under concert conditions in N=3 singer spacing configurations (close, lateral, circumambient) and N=2 choir formations (sectional and mixed). Methods of analysis were modeled on Howard's (2004) pitch-based measurements of the tuning accuracy of crowds of football fans. Results were discussed in terms of (a) previous studies on choir spacing (Daugherty, 1999, 2003) and self-to-other singer ratios (Ternstrm, 1995, 1999); (b) contributions of choir spacing to vocal/choral pedagogy; and (c) potential ramifications for the design and use of auditoria and portable standing risers for choral performances.
REAL - Ensemble radar precipitation estimation for hydrology in a mountainous region
Germann, Urs; Berenguer Ferrer, Marc; Sempere Torres, Daniel; Zappa, Massimiliano
2009-01-01
An elegant solution to characterise the residual errors in radar precipitation estimates is to generate an ensemble of precipitation fields. The paper proposes a radar ensemble generator designed for usage in the Alps using LU decomposition (REAL), and presents first results from a real-time implementation coupling the radar ensemble with a semi-distributed rainfall–runoff model for flash flood modelling in a steep Alpine catchment. Each member of the radar ensemble is a possible realisati...
Ensemble models of neutrophil trafficking in severe sepsis.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sang Ok Song
Full Text Available A hallmark of severe sepsis is systemic inflammation which activates leukocytes and can result in their misdirection. This leads to both impaired migration to the locus of infection and increased infiltration into healthy tissues. In order to better understand the pathophysiologic mechanisms involved, we developed a coarse-grained phenomenological model of the acute inflammatory response in CLP (cecal ligation and puncture-induced sepsis in rats. This model incorporates distinct neutrophil kinetic responses to the inflammatory stimulus and the dynamic interactions between components of a compartmentalized inflammatory response. Ensembles of model parameter sets consistent with experimental observations were statistically generated using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Prediction uncertainty in the model states was quantified over the resulting ensemble parameter sets. Forward simulation of the parameter ensembles successfully captured experimental features and predicted that systemically activated circulating neutrophils display impaired migration to the tissue and neutrophil sequestration in the lung, consequently contributing to tissue damage and mortality. Principal component and multiple regression analyses of the parameter ensembles estimated from survivor and non-survivor cohorts provide insight into pathologic mechanisms dictating outcome in sepsis. Furthermore, the model was extended to incorporate hypothetical mechanisms by which immune modulation using extracorporeal blood purification results in improved outcome in septic rats. Simulations identified a sub-population (about 18% of the treated population that benefited from blood purification. Survivors displayed enhanced neutrophil migration to tissue and reduced sequestration of lung neutrophils, contributing to improved outcome. The model ensemble presented herein provides a platform for generating and testing hypotheses in silico, as well as motivating further experimental
Online probabilistic learning with an ensemble of forecasts
Thorey, Jean; Mallet, Vivien; Chaussin, Christophe
2016-04-01
Our objective is to produce a calibrated weighted ensemble to forecast a univariate time series. In addition to a meteorological ensemble of forecasts, we rely on observations or analyses of the target variable. The celebrated Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the probabilistic forecasts. However applying the CRPS on weighted empirical distribution functions (deriving from the weighted ensemble) may introduce a bias because of which minimizing the CRPS does not produce the optimal weights. Thus we propose an unbiased version of the CRPS which relies on clusters of members and is strictly proper. We adapt online learning methods for the minimization of the CRPS. These methods generate the weights associated to the members in the forecasted empirical distribution function. The weights are updated before each forecast step using only past observations and forecasts. Our learning algorithms provide the theoretical guarantee that, in the long run, the CRPS of the weighted forecasts is at least as good as the CRPS of any weighted ensemble with weights constant in time. In particular, the performance of our forecast is better than that of any subset ensemble with uniform weights. A noteworthy advantage of our algorithm is that it does not require any assumption on the distributions of the observations and forecasts, both for the application and for the theoretical guarantee to hold. As application example on meteorological forecasts for photovoltaic production integration, we show that our algorithm generates a calibrated probabilistic forecast, with significant performance improvements on probabilistic diagnostic tools (the CRPS, the reliability diagram and the rank histogram).
A genetic ensemble approach for gene-gene interaction identification
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ho Joshua WK
2010-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background It has now become clear that gene-gene interactions and gene-environment interactions are ubiquitous and fundamental mechanisms for the development of complex diseases. Though a considerable effort has been put into developing statistical models and algorithmic strategies for identifying such interactions, the accurate identification of those genetic interactions has been proven to be very challenging. Methods In this paper, we propose a new approach for identifying such gene-gene and gene-environment interactions underlying complex diseases. This is a hybrid algorithm and it combines genetic algorithm (GA and an ensemble of classifiers (called genetic ensemble. Using this approach, the original problem of SNP interaction identification is converted into a data mining problem of combinatorial feature selection. By collecting various single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP subsets as well as environmental factors generated in multiple GA runs, patterns of gene-gene and gene-environment interactions can be extracted using a simple combinatorial ranking method. Also considered in this study is the idea of combining identification results obtained from multiple algorithms. A novel formula based on pairwise double fault is designed to quantify the degree of complementarity. Conclusions Our simulation study demonstrates that the proposed genetic ensemble algorithm has comparable identification power to Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR and is slightly better than Polymorphism Interaction Analysis (PIA, which are the two most popular methods for gene-gene interaction identification. More importantly, the identification results generated by using our genetic ensemble algorithm are highly complementary to those obtained by PIA and MDR. Experimental results from our simulation studies and real world data application also confirm the effectiveness of the proposed genetic ensemble algorithm, as well as the potential benefits of
A variational ensemble scheme for noisy image data assimilation
Yang, Yin; Robinson, Cordelia; Heitz, Dominique; Mémin, Etienne
2014-05-01
Data assimilation techniques aim at recovering a system state variables trajectory denoted as X, along time from partially observed noisy measurements of the system denoted as Y. These procedures, which couple dynamics and noisy measurements of the system, fulfill indeed a twofold objective. On one hand, they provide a denoising - or reconstruction - procedure of the data through a given model framework and on the other hand, they provide estimation procedures for unknown parameters of the dynamics. A standard variational data assimilation problem can be formulated as the minimization of the following objective function with respect to the initial discrepancy, η, from the background initial guess: δ« J(η(x)) = 1∥Xb (x) - X (t ,x)∥2 + 1 tf∥H(X (t,x ))- Y (t,x)∥2dt. 2 0 0 B 2 t0 R (1) where the observation operator H links the state variable and the measurements. The cost function can be interpreted as the log likelihood function associated to the a posteriori distribution of the state given the past history of measurements and the background. In this work, we aim at studying ensemble based optimal control strategies for data assimilation. Such formulation nicely combines the ingredients of ensemble Kalman filters and variational data assimilation (4DVar). It is also formulated as the minimization of the objective function (1), but similarly to ensemble filter, it introduces in its objective function an empirical ensemble-based background-error covariance defined as: B ≡ )(Xb - )T>. (2) Thus, it works in an off-line smoothing mode rather than on the fly like sequential filters. Such resulting ensemble variational data assimilation technique corresponds to a relatively new family of methods [1,2,3]. It presents two main advantages: first, it does not require anymore to construct the adjoint of the dynamics tangent linear operator, which is a considerable advantage with respect to the method's implementation, and second, it enables the handling of a flow
Ensemble atmospheric dispersion modeling for emergency response consequence assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Addis, R.P.; Buckley, R.L.
2003-01-01
Full text: Prognostic atmospheric dispersion models are used to generate consequence assessments, which assist decision-makers in the event of a release from a nuclear facility. Differences in the forecast wind fields generated by various meteorological agencies, differences in the transport and diffusion models themselves, as well as differences in the way these models treat the release source term, all may result in differences in the simulated plumes. This talk will address the U.S. participation in the European ENSEMBLE project, and present a perspective an how ensemble techniques may be used to enable atmospheric modelers to provide decision-makers with a more realistic understanding of how both the atmosphere and the models behave. Meteorological forecasts generated by numerical models from national and multinational meteorological agencies provide individual realizations of three-dimensional, time dependent atmospheric wind fields. These wind fields may be used to drive atmospheric dispersion (transport and diffusion) models, or they may be used to initiate other, finer resolution meteorological models, which in turn drive dispersion models. Many modeling agencies now utilize ensemble-modeling techniques to determine how sensitive the prognostic fields are to minor perturbations in the model parameters. However, the European Union programs RTMOD and ENSEMBLE are the first projects to utilize a WEB based ensemble approach to interpret the output from atmospheric dispersion models. The ensembles produced are different from those generated by meteorological forecasting centers in that they are ensembles of dispersion model outputs from many different atmospheric transport and diffusion models utilizing prognostic atmospheric fields from several different forecast centers. As such, they enable a decision-maker to consider the uncertainty in the plume transport and growth as a result of the differences in the forecast wind fields as well as the differences in the
Improving the ensemble optimization method through covariance matrix adaptation (CMA-EnOpt)
Fonseca, R.M.; Leeuwenburgh, O.; Hof, P.M.J. van den; Jansen, J.D.
2013-01-01
Ensemble Optimization (EnOpt) is a rapidly emerging method for reservoir model based production optimization. EnOpt uses an ensemble of controls to approximate the gradient of the objective function with respect to the controls. Current implementations of EnOpt use a Gaussian ensemble with a
A new deterministic Ensemble Kalman Filter with one-step-ahead smoothing for storm surge forecasting
Raboudi, Naila
2016-01-01
KF-OSA exploits the observation twice. The incoming observation is first used to smooth the ensemble at the previous time step. The resulting smoothed ensemble is then integrated forward to compute a "pseudo forecast" ensemble, which is again updated with the same
Using synchronization in multi-model ensembles to improve prediction
Hiemstra, P.; Selten, F.
2012-04-01
In recent decades, many climate models have been developed to understand and predict the behavior of the Earth's climate system. Although these models are all based on the same basic physical principles, they still show different behavior. This is for example caused by the choice of how to parametrize sub-grid scale processes. One method to combine these imperfect models, is to run a multi-model ensemble. The models are given identical initial conditions and are integrated forward in time. A multi-model estimate can for example be a weighted mean of the ensemble members. We propose to go a step further, and try to obtain synchronization between the imperfect models by connecting the multi-model ensemble, and exchanging information. The combined multi-model ensemble is also known as a supermodel. The supermodel has learned from observations how to optimally exchange information between the ensemble members. In this study we focused on the density and formulation of the onnections within the supermodel. The main question was whether we could obtain syn-chronization between two climate models when connecting only a subset of their state spaces. Limiting the connected subspace has two advantages: 1) it limits the transfer of data (bytes) between the ensemble, which can be a limiting factor in large scale climate models, and 2) learning the optimal connection strategy from observations is easier. To answer the research question, we connected two identical quasi-geostrohic (QG) atmospheric models to each other, where the model have different initial conditions. The QG model is a qualitatively realistic simulation of the winter flow on the Northern hemisphere, has three layers and uses a spectral imple-mentation. We connected the models in the original spherical harmonical state space, and in linear combinations of these spherical harmonics, i.e. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). We show that when connecting through spherical harmonics, we only need to connect 28% of
Data Sets, Ensemble Cloud Computing, and the University Library (Invited)
Plale, B. A.
2013-12-01
The environmental researcher at the public university has new resources at their disposal to aid in research and publishing. Cloud computing provides compute cycles on demand for analysis and modeling scenarios. Cloud computing is attractive for e-Science because of the ease with which cores can be accessed on demand, and because the virtual machine implementation that underlies cloud computing reduces the cost of porting a numeric or analysis code to a new platform. At the university, many libraries at larger universities are developing the e-Science skills to serve as repositories of record for publishable data sets. But these are confusing times for the publication of data sets from environmental research. The large publishers of scientific literature are advocating a process whereby data sets are tightly tied to a publication. In other words, a paper published in the scientific literature that gives results based on data, must have an associated data set accessible that backs up the results. This approach supports reproducibility of results in that publishers maintain a repository for the papers they publish, and the data sets that the papers used. Does such a solution that maps one data set (or subset) to one paper fit the needs of the environmental researcher who among other things uses complex models, mines longitudinal data bases, and generates observational results? The second school of thought has emerged out of NSF, NOAA, and NASA funded efforts over time: data sets exist coherent at a location, such as occurs at National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). But when a collection is coherent, reproducibility of individual results is more challenging. We argue for a third complementary option: the university repository as a location for data sets produced as a result of university-based research. This location for a repository relies on the expertise developing in the university libraries across the country, and leverages tools, such as are being developed
The Use of Artificial-Intelligence-Based Ensembles for Intrusion Detection: A Review
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gulshan Kumar
2012-01-01
Full Text Available In supervised learning-based classification, ensembles have been successfully employed to different application domains. In the literature, many researchers have proposed different ensembles by considering different combination methods, training datasets, base classifiers, and many other factors. Artificial-intelligence-(AI- based techniques play prominent role in development of ensemble for intrusion detection (ID and have many benefits over other techniques. However, there is no comprehensive review of ensembles in general and AI-based ensembles for ID to examine and understand their current research status to solve the ID problem. Here, an updated review of ensembles and their taxonomies has been presented in general. The paper also presents the updated review of various AI-based ensembles for ID (in particular during last decade. The related studies of AI-based ensembles are compared by set of evaluation metrics driven from (1 architecture & approach followed; (2 different methods utilized in different phases of ensemble learning; (3 other measures used to evaluate classification performance of the ensembles. The paper also provides the future directions of the research in this area. The paper will help the better understanding of different directions in which research of ensembles has been done in general and specifically: field of intrusion detection systems (IDSs.
Random matrix ensembles for PT-symmetric systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Graefe, Eva-Maria; Mudute-Ndumbe, Steve; Taylor, Matthew
2015-01-01
Recently much effort has been made towards the introduction of non-Hermitian random matrix models respecting PT-symmetry. Here we show that there is a one-to-one correspondence between complex PT-symmetric matrices and split-complex and split-quaternionic versions of Hermitian matrices. We introduce two new random matrix ensembles of (a) Gaussian split-complex Hermitian; and (b) Gaussian split-quaternionic Hermitian matrices, of arbitrary sizes. We conjecture that these ensembles represent universality classes for PT-symmetric matrices. For the case of 2 × 2 matrices we derive analytic expressions for the joint probability distributions of the eigenvalues, the one-level densities and the level spacings in the case of real eigenvalues. (fast track communication)
Current path in light emitting diodes based on nanowire ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Limbach, F; Hauswald, C; Lähnemann, J; Wölz, M; Brandt, O; Trampert, A; Hanke, M; Jahn, U; Calarco, R; Geelhaar, L; Riechert, H
2012-01-01
Light emitting diodes (LEDs) have been fabricated using ensembles of free-standing (In, Ga)N/GaN nanowires (NWs) grown on Si substrates in the self-induced growth mode by molecular beam epitaxy. Electron-beam-induced current analysis, cathodoluminescence as well as biased μ-photoluminescence spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, and electrical measurements indicate that the electroluminescence of such LEDs is governed by the differences in the individual current densities of the single-NW LEDs operated in parallel, i.e. by the inhomogeneity of the current path in the ensemble LED. In addition, the optoelectronic characterization leads to the conclusion that these NWs exhibit N-polarity and that the (In, Ga)N quantum well states in the NWs are subject to a non-vanishing quantum confined Stark effect. (paper)
Ensembles and Experiments in Classical and Quantum Physics
Neumaier, Arnold
A philosophically consistent axiomatic approach to classical and quantum mechanics is given. The approach realizes a strong formal implementation of Bohr's correspondence principle. In all instances, classical and quantum concepts are fully parallel: the same general theory has a classical realization and a quantum realization. Extending the ''probability via expectation'' approach of Whittle to noncommuting quantities, this paper defines quantities, ensembles, and experiments as mathematical concepts and shows how to model complementarity, uncertainty, probability, nonlocality and dynamics in these terms. The approach carries no connotation of unlimited repeatability; hence it can be applied to unique systems such as the universe. Consistent experiments provide an elegant solution to the reality problem, confirming the insistence of the orthodox Copenhagen interpretation on that there is nothing but ensembles, while avoiding its elusive reality picture. The weak law of large numbers explains the emergence of classical properties for macroscopic systems.
Observation Quality Control with a Robust Ensemble Kalman Filter
Roh, Soojin
2013-12-01
Current ensemble-based Kalman filter (EnKF) algorithms are not robust to gross observation errors caused by technical or human errors during the data collection process. In this paper, the authors consider two types of gross observational errors, additive statistical outliers and innovation outliers, and introduce a method to make EnKF robust to gross observation errors. Using both a one-dimensional linear system of dynamics and a 40-variable Lorenz model, the performance of the proposed robust ensemble Kalman filter (REnKF) was tested and it was found that the new approach greatly improves the performance of the filter in the presence of gross observation errors and leads to only a modest loss of accuracy with clean, outlier-free, observations.
An Ensemble of Neural Networks for Stock Trading Decision Making
Chang, Pei-Chann; Liu, Chen-Hao; Fan, Chin-Yuan; Lin, Jun-Lin; Lai, Chih-Ming
Stock turning signals detection are very interesting subject arising in numerous financial and economic planning problems. In this paper, Ensemble Neural Network system with Intelligent Piecewise Linear Representation for stock turning points detection is presented. The Intelligent piecewise linear representation method is able to generate numerous stocks turning signals from the historic data base, then Ensemble Neural Network system will be applied to train the pattern and retrieve similar stock price patterns from historic data for training. These turning signals represent short-term and long-term trading signals for selling or buying stocks from the market which are applied to forecast the future turning points from the set of test data. Experimental results demonstrate that the hybrid system can make a significant and constant amount of profit when compared with other approaches using stock data available in the market.
Nuclear multifragmentation within the framework of different statistical ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aguiar, C.E.; Donangelo, R.; Souza, S.R.
2006-01-01
The sensitivity of the statistical multifragmentation model to the underlying statistical assumptions is investigated. We concentrate on its microcanonical, canonical, and isobaric formulations. As far as average values are concerned, our results reveal that all the ensembles make very similar predictions, as long as the relevant macroscopic variables (such as temperature, excitation energy, and breakup volume) are the same in all statistical ensembles. It also turns out that the multiplicity dependence of the breakup volume in the microcanonical version of the model mimics a system at (approximately) constant pressure, at least in the plateau region of the caloric curve. However, in contrast to average values, our results suggest that the distributions of physical observables are quite sensitive to the statistical assumptions. This finding may help in deciding which hypothesis corresponds to the best picture for the freeze-out stage
The limit shape problem for ensembles of Young diagrams
Hora, Akihito
2016-01-01
This book treats ensembles of Young diagrams originating from group-theoretical contexts and investigates what statistical properties are observed there in a large-scale limit. The focus is mainly on analyzing the interesting phenomenon that specific curves appear in the appropriate scaling limit for the profiles of Young diagrams. This problem is regarded as an important origin of recent vital studies on harmonic analysis of huge symmetry structures. As mathematics, an asymptotic theory of representations is developed of the symmetric groups of degree n as n goes to infinity. The framework of rigorous limit theorems (especially the law of large numbers) in probability theory is employed as well as combinatorial analysis of group characters of symmetric groups and applications of Voiculescu's free probability. The central destination here is a clear description of the asymptotic behavior of rescaled profiles of Young diagrams in the Plancherel ensemble from both static and dynamic points of view.
Generation of macroscopic singlet states in atomic ensembles
Tóth, Géza; Mitchell, Morgan W.
2010-05-01
We study squeezing of the spin uncertainties by quantum non-demolition (QND) measurement in non-polarized spin ensembles. Unlike the case of polarized ensembles, the QND measurements can be performed with negligible back-action, which allows, in principle, perfect spin squeezing as quantified by Tóth et al (2007 Phys. Rev. Lett. 99 250405). The generated spin states approach many-body singlet states and contain a macroscopic number of entangled particles even when individual spin is large. We introduce the Gaussian treatment of unpolarized spin states and use it to estimate the achievable spin squeezing for realistic experimental parameters. Our proposal might have applications for magnetometry with a high spatial resolution or quantum memories storing information in decoherence free subspaces.
Skill forecasting from ensemble predictions of wind power
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik
2009-01-01
Optimal management and trading of wind generation calls for the providing of uncertainty estimates along with the commonly provided short-term wind power point predictions. Alternative approaches for the use of probabilistic forecasting are introduced. More precisely, focus is given to prediction...... risk indices aiming to give a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the spread of ensemble forecasts (i.e. a set...... of alternative scenarios for the coming period) for a single prediction horizon or over a took-ahead period. It is shown on the test case of a Danish offshore wind farm how these prediction risk indices may be related to several levels of forecast uncertainty (and potential energy imbalances). Wind power...
A multidimensional pseudospectral method for optimal control of quantum ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ruths, Justin; Li, Jr-Shin
2011-01-01
In our previous work, we have shown that the pseudospectral method is an effective and flexible computation scheme for deriving pulses for optimal control of quantum systems. In practice, however, quantum systems often exhibit variation in the parameters that characterize the system dynamics. This leads us to consider the control of an ensemble (or continuum) of quantum systems indexed by the system parameters that show variation. We cast the design of pulses as an optimal ensemble control problem and demonstrate a multidimensional pseudospectral method with several challenging examples of both closed and open quantum systems from nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy in liquid. We give particular attention to the ability to derive experimentally viable pulses of minimum energy or duration.
Security Enrichment in Intrusion Detection System Using Classifier Ensemble
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Uma R. Salunkhe
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In the era of Internet and with increasing number of people as its end users, a large number of attack categories are introduced daily. Hence, effective detection of various attacks with the help of Intrusion Detection Systems is an emerging trend in research these days. Existing studies show effectiveness of machine learning approaches in handling Intrusion Detection Systems. In this work, we aim to enhance detection rate of Intrusion Detection System by using machine learning technique. We propose a novel classifier ensemble based IDS that is constructed using hybrid approach which combines data level and feature level approach. Classifier ensembles combine the opinions of different experts and improve the intrusion detection rate. Experimental results show the improved detection rates of our system compared to reference technique.
Generalized ensemble theory with non-extensive statistics
Shen, Ke-Ming; Zhang, Ben-Wei; Wang, En-Ke
2017-12-01
The non-extensive canonical ensemble theory is reconsidered with the method of Lagrange multipliers by maximizing Tsallis entropy, with the constraint that the normalized term of Tsallis' q -average of physical quantities, the sum ∑ pjq, is independent of the probability pi for Tsallis parameter q. The self-referential problem in the deduced probability and thermal quantities in non-extensive statistics is thus avoided, and thermodynamical relationships are obtained in a consistent and natural way. We also extend the study to the non-extensive grand canonical ensemble theory and obtain the q-deformed Bose-Einstein distribution as well as the q-deformed Fermi-Dirac distribution. The theory is further applied to the generalized Planck law to demonstrate the distinct behaviors of the various generalized q-distribution functions discussed in literature.
Detection of eardrum abnormalities using ensemble deep learning approaches
Senaras, Caglar; Moberly, Aaron C.; Teknos, Theodoros; Essig, Garth; Elmaraghy, Charles; Taj-Schaal, Nazhat; Yua, Lianbo; Gurcan, Metin N.
2018-02-01
In this study, we proposed an approach to report the condition of the eardrum as "normal" or "abnormal" by ensembling two different deep learning architectures. In the first network (Network 1), we applied transfer learning to the Inception V3 network by using 409 labeled samples. As a second network (Network 2), we designed a convolutional neural network to take advantage of auto-encoders by using additional 673 unlabeled eardrum samples. The individual classification accuracies of the Network 1 and Network 2 were calculated as 84.4%(+/- 12.1%) and 82.6% (+/- 11.3%), respectively. Only 32% of the errors of the two networks were the same, making it possible to combine two approaches to achieve better classification accuracy. The proposed ensemble method allows us to achieve robust classification because it has high accuracy (84.4%) with the lowest standard deviation (+/- 10.3%).
Observation Quality Control with a Robust Ensemble Kalman Filter
Roh, Soojin; Genton, Marc G.; Jun, Mikyoung; Szunyogh, Istvan; Hoteit, Ibrahim
2013-01-01
Current ensemble-based Kalman filter (EnKF) algorithms are not robust to gross observation errors caused by technical or human errors during the data collection process. In this paper, the authors consider two types of gross observational errors, additive statistical outliers and innovation outliers, and introduce a method to make EnKF robust to gross observation errors. Using both a one-dimensional linear system of dynamics and a 40-variable Lorenz model, the performance of the proposed robust ensemble Kalman filter (REnKF) was tested and it was found that the new approach greatly improves the performance of the filter in the presence of gross observation errors and leads to only a modest loss of accuracy with clean, outlier-free, observations.
Control of inhomogeneous atomic ensembles of hyperfine qudits
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mischuck, Brian Edward; Merkel, Seth T.; Deutsch, Ivan H.
2012-01-01
We study the ability to control d-dimensional quantum systems (qudits) encoded in the hyperfine spin of alkali-metal atoms through the application of radio- and microwave-frequency magnetic fields in the presence of inhomogeneities in amplitude and detuning. Such a capability is essential...... to the design of robust pulses that mitigate the effects of experimental uncertainty and also for application to tomographic addressing of particular members of an extended ensemble. We study the problem of preparing an arbitrary state in the Hilbert space from an initial fiducial state. We prove...... that inhomogeneous control of qudit ensembles is possible based on a semianalytic protocol that synthesizes the target through a sequence of alternating rf and microwave-driven SU(2) rotations in overlapping irreducible subspaces. Several examples of robust control are studied, and the semianalytic protocol...
Weighted ensemble transform Kalman filter for image assimilation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sebastien Beyou
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This study proposes an extension of the Weighted Ensemble Kalman filter (WEnKF proposed by Papadakis et al. (2010 for the assimilation of image observations. The main focus of this study is on a novel formulation of the Weighted filter with the Ensemble Transform Kalman filter (WETKF, incorporating directly as a measurement model a non-linear image reconstruction criterion. This technique has been compared to the original WEnKF on numerical and real world data of 2-D turbulence observed through the transport of a passive scalar. In particular, it has been applied for the reconstruction of oceanic surface current vorticity fields from sea surface temperature (SST satellite data. This latter technique enables a consistent recovery along time of oceanic surface currents and vorticity maps in presence of large missing data areas and strong noise.
Human resource recommendation algorithm based on ensemble learning and Spark
Cong, Zihan; Zhang, Xingming; Wang, Haoxiang; Xu, Hongjie
2017-08-01
Aiming at the problem of “information overload” in the human resources industry, this paper proposes a human resource recommendation algorithm based on Ensemble Learning. The algorithm considers the characteristics and behaviours of both job seeker and job features in the real business circumstance. Firstly, the algorithm uses two ensemble learning methods-Bagging and Boosting. The outputs from both learning methods are then merged to form user interest model. Based on user interest model, job recommendation can be extracted for users. The algorithm is implemented as a parallelized recommendation system on Spark. A set of experiments have been done and analysed. The proposed algorithm achieves significant improvement in accuracy, recall rate and coverage, compared with recommendation algorithms such as UserCF and ItemCF.
Harnessing Disordered-Ensemble Quantum Dynamics for Machine Learning
Fujii, Keisuke; Nakajima, Kohei
2017-08-01
The quantum computer has an amazing potential of fast information processing. However, the realization of a digital quantum computer is still a challenging problem requiring highly accurate controls and key application strategies. Here we propose a platform, quantum reservoir computing, to solve these issues successfully by exploiting the natural quantum dynamics of ensemble systems, which are ubiquitous in laboratories nowadays, for machine learning. This framework enables ensemble quantum systems to universally emulate nonlinear dynamical systems including classical chaos. A number of numerical experiments show that quantum systems consisting of 5-7 qubits possess computational capabilities comparable to conventional recurrent neural networks of 100-500 nodes. This discovery opens up a paradigm for information processing with artificial intelligence powered by quantum physics.
Encoding qubits into oscillators with atomic ensembles and squeezed light
Motes, Keith R.; Baragiola, Ben Q.; Gilchrist, Alexei; Menicucci, Nicolas C.
2017-05-01
The Gottesman-Kitaev-Preskill (GKP) encoding of a qubit within an oscillator provides a number of advantages when used in a fault-tolerant architecture for quantum computing, most notably that Gaussian operations suffice to implement all single- and two-qubit Clifford gates. The main drawback of the encoding is that the logical states themselves are challenging to produce. Here we present a method for generating optical GKP-encoded qubits by coupling an atomic ensemble to a squeezed state of light. Particular outcomes of a subsequent spin measurement of the ensemble herald successful generation of the resource state in the optical mode. We analyze the method in terms of the resources required (total spin and amount of squeezing) and the probability of success. We propose a physical implementation using a Faraday-based quantum nondemolition interaction.
On-line Learning of Unlearnable True Teacher through Mobile Ensemble Teachers
Hirama, Takeshi; Hukushima, Koji
2008-09-01
The on-line learning of a hierarchical learning model is studied by a method based on statistical mechanics. In our model, a student of a simple perceptron learns from not a true teacher directly, but ensemble teachers who learn from a true teacher with a perceptron learning rule. Since the true teacher and ensemble teachers are expressed as nonmonotonic and simple perceptrons, respectively, the ensemble teachers go around the unlearnable true teacher with the distance between them fixed in an asymptotic steady state. The generalization performance of the student is shown to exceed that of the ensemble teachers in a transient state, as was shown in similar ensemble-teachers models. Furthermore, it is found that moving the ensemble teachers even in the steady state, in contrast to the fixed ensemble teachers, is efficient for the performance of the student.
Developing Novel Frameworks for Many-Body Ensembles
2016-03-17
RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) 77 Massachusetts Ave. NE18-901 Cambridge , MA 02139 -4307 15-Jul-2015...of-equilibrium dynamics and to estimate prob- Page 4 of 9 Figure 2: Illustration of the dendro- gram representation. The rectangle on the left shows...isolation as illustrated in Figure 4. Starting from random initial conditions, an ensemble of particle pairs was simulated to establish the long-time
A virtual pebble game to ensemble average graph rigidity.
González, Luis C; Wang, Hui; Livesay, Dennis R; Jacobs, Donald J
2015-01-01
The body-bar Pebble Game (PG) algorithm is commonly used to calculate network rigidity properties in proteins and polymeric materials. To account for fluctuating interactions such as hydrogen bonds, an ensemble of constraint topologies are sampled, and average network properties are obtained by averaging PG characterizations. At a simpler level of sophistication, Maxwell constraint counting (MCC) provides a rigorous lower bound for the number of internal degrees of freedom (DOF) within a body-bar network, and it is commonly employed to test if a molecular structure is globally under-constrained or over-constrained. MCC is a mean field approximation (MFA) that ignores spatial fluctuations of distance constraints by replacing the actual molecular structure by an effective medium that has distance constraints globally distributed with perfect uniform density. The Virtual Pebble Game (VPG) algorithm is a MFA that retains spatial inhomogeneity in the density of constraints on all length scales. Network fluctuations due to distance constraints that may be present or absent based on binary random dynamic variables are suppressed by replacing all possible constraint topology realizations with the probabilities that distance constraints are present. The VPG algorithm is isomorphic to the PG algorithm, where integers for counting "pebbles" placed on vertices or edges in the PG map to real numbers representing the probability to find a pebble. In the VPG, edges are assigned pebble capacities, and pebble movements become a continuous flow of probability within the network. Comparisons between the VPG and average PG results over a test set of proteins and disordered lattices demonstrate the VPG quantitatively estimates the ensemble average PG results well. The VPG performs about 20% faster than one PG, and it provides a pragmatic alternative to averaging PG rigidity characteristics over an ensemble of constraint topologies. The utility of the VPG falls in between the most
Disease-associated mutations that alter the RNA structural ensemble.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Matthew Halvorsen
2010-08-01
Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS often identify disease-associated mutations in intergenic and non-coding regions of the genome. Given the high percentage of the human genome that is transcribed, we postulate that for some observed associations the disease phenotype is caused by a structural rearrangement in a regulatory region of the RNA transcript. To identify such mutations, we have performed a genome-wide analysis of all known disease-associated Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs from the Human Gene Mutation Database (HGMD that map to the untranslated regions (UTRs of a gene. Rather than using minimum free energy approaches (e.g. mFold, we use a partition function calculation that takes into consideration the ensemble of possible RNA conformations for a given sequence. We identified in the human genome disease-associated SNPs that significantly alter the global conformation of the UTR to which they map. For six disease-states (Hyperferritinemia Cataract Syndrome, beta-Thalassemia, Cartilage-Hair Hypoplasia, Retinoblastoma, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD, and Hypertension, we identified multiple SNPs in UTRs that alter the mRNA structural ensemble of the associated genes. Using a Boltzmann sampling procedure for sub-optimal RNA structures, we are able to characterize and visualize the nature of the conformational changes induced by the disease-associated mutations in the structural ensemble. We observe in several cases (specifically the 5' UTRs of FTL and RB1 SNP-induced conformational changes analogous to those observed in bacterial regulatory Riboswitches when specific ligands bind. We propose that the UTR and SNP combinations we identify constitute a "RiboSNitch," that is a regulatory RNA in which a specific SNP has a structural consequence that results in a disease phenotype. Our SNPfold algorithm can help identify RiboSNitches by leveraging GWAS data and an analysis of the mRNA structural ensemble.
Diagnosing Coronary Heart Disease using Ensemble Machine Learning
Kathleen H. Miao; Julia H. Miao; George J. Miao
2016-01-01
Globally, heart disease is the leading cause of death for both men and women. One in every four people is afflicted with and dies of heart disease. Early and accurate diagnoses of heart disease thus are crucial in improving the chances of long-term survival for patients and saving millions of lives. In this research, an advanced ensemble machine learning technology, utilizing an adaptive Boosting algorithm, is developed for accurate coronary heart disease diagnosis and outcome predictions. Th...
Fluctuations in a quasi-stationary shallow cumulus cloud ensemble
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Sakradzija
2015-01-01
Full Text Available We propose an approach to stochastic parameterisation of shallow cumulus clouds to represent the convective variability and its dependence on the model resolution. To collect information about the individual cloud lifecycles and the cloud ensemble as a whole, we employ a large eddy simulation (LES model and a cloud tracking algorithm, followed by conditional sampling of clouds at the cloud-base level. In the case of a shallow cumulus ensemble, the cloud-base mass flux distribution is bimodal, due to the different shallow cloud subtypes, active and passive clouds. Each distribution mode can be approximated using a Weibull distribution, which is a generalisation of exponential distribution by accounting for the change in distribution shape due to the diversity of cloud lifecycles. The exponential distribution of cloud mass flux previously suggested for deep convection parameterisation is a special case of the Weibull distribution, which opens a way towards unification of the statistical convective ensemble formalism of shallow and deep cumulus clouds. Based on the empirical and theoretical findings, a stochastic model has been developed to simulate a shallow convective cloud ensemble. It is formulated as a compound random process, with the number of convective elements drawn from a Poisson distribution, and the cloud mass flux sampled from a mixed Weibull distribution. Convective memory is accounted for through the explicit cloud lifecycles, making the model formulation consistent with the choice of the Weibull cloud mass flux distribution function. The memory of individual shallow clouds is required to capture the correct convective variability. The resulting distribution of the subgrid convective states in the considered shallow cumulus case is scale-adaptive – the smaller the grid size, the broader the distribution.
Dynamics of multi-frequency oscillator ensembles with resonant coupling
Lück, S.; Pikovsky, A.
2011-07-01
We study dynamics of populations of resonantly coupled oscillators having different frequencies. Starting from the coupled van der Pol equations we derive the Kuramoto-type phase model for the situation, where the natural frequencies of two interacting subpopulations are in relation 2:1. Depending on the parameter of coupling, ensembles can demonstrate fully synchronous clusters, partial synchrony (only one subpopulation synchronizes), or asynchrony in both subpopulations. Theoretical description of the dynamics based on the Watanabe-Strogatz approach is developed.
Wave Extremes in the Northeast Atlantic from Ensemble Forecasts
Breivik, Øyvind; Aarnes, Ole Johan; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Carrasco, Ana; Saetra, Øyvind
2013-10-01
A method for estimating return values from ensembles of forecasts at advanced lead times is presented. Return values of significant wave height in the North-East Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea are computed from archived +240-h forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) from 1999 to 2009. We make three assumptions: First, each forecast is representative of a six-hour interval and collectively the data set is then comparable to a time period of 226 years. Second, the model climate matches the observed distribution, which we confirm by comparing with buoy data. Third, the ensemble members are sufficiently uncorrelated to be considered independent realizations of the model climate. We find anomaly correlations of 0.20, but peak events (>P97) are entirely uncorrelated. By comparing return values from individual members with return values of subsamples of the data set we also find that the estimates follow the same distribution and appear unaffected by correlations in the ensemble. The annual mean and variance over the 11-year archived period exhibit no significant departures from stationarity compared with a recent reforecast, i.e., there is no spurious trend due to model upgrades. EPS yields significantly higher return values than ERA-40 and ERA-Interim and is in good agreement with the high-resolution hindcast NORA10, except in the lee of unresolved islands where EPS overestimates and in enclosed seas where it is biased low. Confidence intervals are half the width of those found for ERA-Interim due to the magnitude of the data set.
Dynamic Metabolic Model Building Based on the Ensemble Modeling Approach
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Liao, James C. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
2016-10-01
Ensemble modeling of kinetic systems addresses the challenges of kinetic model construction, with respect to parameter value selection, and still allows for the rich insights possible from kinetic models. This project aimed to show that constructing, implementing, and analyzing such models is a useful tool for the metabolic engineering toolkit, and that they can result in actionable insights from models. Key concepts are developed and deliverable publications and results are presented.
Canonical Ensemble Model for Black Hole Radiation Jingyi Zhang
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Canonical Ensemble Model for Black Hole Radiation. 575. For entropy, there is no corresponding thermodynamical quantity, without loss of generalization. Let us define an entropy operator. ˆS = −KB ln ˆρ. (11). Then, the mean value of entropy is. S ≡〈ˆS〉 = tr( ˆρ ˆS) = −KBtr( ˆρ ln ˆρ). (12). For ideal gases, let y = V , then the ...
Hybrid vs Adaptive Ensemble Kalman Filtering for Storm Surge Forecasting
Altaf, M. U.; Raboudi, N.; Gharamti, M. E.; Dawson, C.; McCabe, M. F.; Hoteit, I.
2014-12-01
Recent storm surge events due to Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico have motivated the efforts to accurately forecast water levels. Toward this goal, a parallel architecture has been implemented based on a high resolution storm surge model, ADCIRC. However the accuracy of the model notably depends on the quality and the recentness of the input data (mainly winds and bathymetry), model parameters (e.g. wind and bottom drag coefficients), and the resolution of the model grid. Given all these uncertainties in the system, the challenge is to build an efficient prediction system capable of providing accurate forecasts enough ahead of time for the authorities to evacuate the areas at risk. We have developed an ensemble-based data assimilation system to frequently assimilate available data into the ADCIRC model in order to improve the accuracy of the model. In this contribution we study and analyze the performances of different ensemble Kalman filter methodologies for efficient short-range storm surge forecasting, the aim being to produce the most accurate forecasts at the lowest possible computing time. Using Hurricane Ike meteorological data to force the ADCIRC model over a domain including the Gulf of Mexico coastline, we implement and compare the forecasts of the standard EnKF, the hybrid EnKF and an adaptive EnKF. The last two schemes have been introduced as efficient tools for enhancing the behavior of the EnKF when implemented with small ensembles by exploiting information from a static background covariance matrix. Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all these filters. Our results suggest that both the hybrid and the adaptive approach provide significantly better forecasts than those resulting from the standard EnKF, even when implemented with much smaller ensembles.
Marginalized Particle Filtering Framework for Tuning of Ensemble Filters
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Šmídl, Václav; Hofman, Radek
2011-01-01
Roč. 139, č. 11 (2011), s. 3589-3599 ISSN 0027-0644 R&D Projects: GA MV VG20102013018; GA ČR GP102/08/P250 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : ensemble finter * marginalized particle filter * data assimilation Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 2.688, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/AS/smidl-0367533.pdf
An Organic Computing Approach to Self-organising Robot Ensembles
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sebastian Albrecht von Mammen
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Similar to the Autonomous Computing initiative, that has mainly been advancing techniques for self-optimisation focussing on computing systems and infrastructures, Organic Computing (OC has been driving the development of system design concepts and algorithms for self-adaptive systems at large. Examples of application domains include, for instance, traffic management and control, cloud services, communication protocols, and robotic systems. Such an OC system typically consists of a potentially large set of autonomous and self-managed entities, where each entity acts with a local decision horizon. By means of cooperation of the individual entities, the behaviour of the entire ensemble system is derived. In this article, we present our work on how autonomous, adaptive robot ensembles can benefit from OC technology. Our elaborations are aligned with the different layers of an observer/controller framework which provides the foundation for the individuals' adaptivity at system design-level. Relying on an extended Learning Classifier System (XCS in combination with adequate simulation techniques, this basic system design empowers robot individuals to improve their individual and collaborative performances, e.g. by means of adapting to changing goals and conditions.Not only for the sake of generalisability, but also because of its enormous transformative potential, we stage our research in the domain of robot ensembles that are typically comprised of several quad-rotors and that organise themselves to fulfil spatial tasks such as maintenance of building facades or the collaborative search for mobile targets. Our elaborations detail the architectural concept, provide examples of individual self-optimisation as well as of the optimisation of collaborative efforts, and we show how the user can control the ensembles at multiple levels of abstraction. We conclude with a summary of our approach and an outlook on possible future steps.
Ensemble streamflow assimilation with the National Water Model.
Rafieeinasab, A.; McCreight, J. L.; Noh, S.; Seo, D. J.; Gochis, D.
2017-12-01
Through case studies of flooding across the US, we compare the performance of the National Water Model (NWM) data assimilation (DA) scheme to that of a newly implemented ensemble Kalman filter approach. The NOAA National Water Model (NWM) is an operational implementation of the community WRF-Hydro modeling system. As of August 2016, the NWM forecasts of distributed hydrologic states and fluxes (including soil moisture, snowpack, ET, and ponded water) over the contiguous United States have been publicly disseminated by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) . It also provides streamflow forecasts at more than 2.7 million river reaches up to 30 days in advance. The NWM employs a nudging scheme to assimilate more than 6,000 USGS streamflow observations and provide initial conditions for its forecasts. A problem with nudging is how the forecasts relax quickly to open-loop bias in the forecast. This has been partially addressed by an experimental bias correction approach which was found to have issues with phase errors during flooding events. In this work, we present an ensemble streamflow data assimilation approach combining new channel-only capabilities of the NWM and HydroDART (a coupling of the offline WRF-Hydro model and NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed; DART). Our approach focuses on the single model state of discharge and incorporates error distributions on channel-influxes (overland and groundwater) in the assimilation via an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In order to avoid filter degeneracy associated with a limited number of ensemble at large scale, DART's covariance inflation (Anderson, 2009) and localization capabilities are implemented and evaluated. The current NWM data assimilation scheme is compared to preliminary results from the EnKF application for several flooding case studies across the US.
ANALYSIS OF SST IMAGES BY WEIGHTED ENSEMBLE TRANSFORM KALMAN FILTER
Sai , Gorthi; Beyou , Sébastien; Memin , Etienne
2011-01-01
International audience; This paper presents a novel, efficient scheme for the analysis of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) ocean images. We consider the estimation of the velocity fields and vorticity values from a sequence of oceanic images. The contribution of this paper lies in proposing a novel, robust and simple approach based onWeighted Ensemble Transform Kalman filter (WETKF) data assimilation technique for the analysis of real SST images, that may contain coast regions or large areas of ...
In the Beginning of the Middle: Curriculum Considerations for Middle School General Music
Giebelhausen, Robin
2015-01-01
Middle school general music is an experience that numerous music educators feel underprepared to teach. Because many undergraduate programs spend little time on this teaching scenario and because the challenges of middle school general music are different from those of elementary general music or middle school ensembles, teachers often lack the…
Calculating ensemble averaged descriptions of protein rigidity without sampling.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luis C González
Full Text Available Previous works have demonstrated that protein rigidity is related to thermodynamic stability, especially under conditions that favor formation of native structure. Mechanical network rigidity properties of a single conformation are efficiently calculated using the integer body-bar Pebble Game (PG algorithm. However, thermodynamic properties require averaging over many samples from the ensemble of accessible conformations to accurately account for fluctuations in network topology. We have developed a mean field Virtual Pebble Game (VPG that represents the ensemble of networks by a single effective network. That is, all possible number of distance constraints (or bars that can form between a pair of rigid bodies is replaced by the average number. The resulting effective network is viewed as having weighted edges, where the weight of an edge quantifies its capacity to absorb degrees of freedom. The VPG is interpreted as a flow problem on this effective network, which eliminates the need to sample. Across a nonredundant dataset of 272 protein structures, we apply the VPG to proteins for the first time. Our results show numerically and visually that the rigidity characterizations of the VPG accurately reflect the ensemble averaged [Formula: see text] properties. This result positions the VPG as an efficient alternative to understand the mechanical role that chemical interactions play in maintaining protein stability.
Calculating ensemble averaged descriptions of protein rigidity without sampling.
González, Luis C; Wang, Hui; Livesay, Dennis R; Jacobs, Donald J
2012-01-01
Previous works have demonstrated that protein rigidity is related to thermodynamic stability, especially under conditions that favor formation of native structure. Mechanical network rigidity properties of a single conformation are efficiently calculated using the integer body-bar Pebble Game (PG) algorithm. However, thermodynamic properties require averaging over many samples from the ensemble of accessible conformations to accurately account for fluctuations in network topology. We have developed a mean field Virtual Pebble Game (VPG) that represents the ensemble of networks by a single effective network. That is, all possible number of distance constraints (or bars) that can form between a pair of rigid bodies is replaced by the average number. The resulting effective network is viewed as having weighted edges, where the weight of an edge quantifies its capacity to absorb degrees of freedom. The VPG is interpreted as a flow problem on this effective network, which eliminates the need to sample. Across a nonredundant dataset of 272 protein structures, we apply the VPG to proteins for the first time. Our results show numerically and visually that the rigidity characterizations of the VPG accurately reflect the ensemble averaged [Formula: see text] properties. This result positions the VPG as an efficient alternative to understand the mechanical role that chemical interactions play in maintaining protein stability.
Non-Hermitian Extensions of Wishart Random Matrix Ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Akemann, G.
2011-01-01
We briefly review the solution of three ensembles of non-Hermitian random matrices generalizing the Wishart-Laguerre (also called chiral) ensembles. These generalizations are realized as Gaussian two-matrix models, where the complex eigenvalues of the product of the two independent rectangular matrices are sought, with the matrix elements of both matrices being either real, complex or quaternion real. We also present the more general case depending on a non-Hermiticity parameter, that allows us to interpolate between the corresponding three Hermitian Wishart ensembles with real eigenvalues and the maximally non-Hermitian case. All three symmetry classes are explicitly solved for finite matrix size N x M for all complex eigenvalue correlations functions (and real or mixed correlations for real matrix elements). These are given in terms of the corresponding kernels built from orthogonal or skew-orthogonal Laguerre polynomials in the complex plane. We then present the corresponding three Bessel kernels in the complex plane in the microscopic large-N scaling limit at the origin, both at weak and strong non-Hermiticity with M - N ≥ 0 fixed. (author)
Geometric integrator for simulations in the canonical ensemble
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tapias, Diego, E-mail: diego.tapias@nucleares.unam.mx [Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Ciudad de México 04510 (Mexico); Sanders, David P., E-mail: dpsanders@ciencias.unam.mx [Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Ciudad de México 04510 (Mexico); Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139 (United States); Bravetti, Alessandro, E-mail: alessandro.bravetti@iimas.unam.mx [Instituto de Investigaciones en Matemáticas Aplicadas y en Sistemas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Ciudad de México 04510 (Mexico)
2016-08-28
We introduce a geometric integrator for molecular dynamics simulations of physical systems in the canonical ensemble that preserves the invariant distribution in equations arising from the density dynamics algorithm, with any possible type of thermostat. Our integrator thus constitutes a unified framework that allows the study and comparison of different thermostats and of their influence on the equilibrium and non-equilibrium (thermo-)dynamic properties of a system. To show the validity and the generality of the integrator, we implement it with a second-order, time-reversible method and apply it to the simulation of a Lennard-Jones system with three different thermostats, obtaining good conservation of the geometrical properties and recovering the expected thermodynamic results. Moreover, to show the advantage of our geometric integrator over a non-geometric one, we compare the results with those obtained by using the non-geometric Gear integrator, which is frequently used to perform simulations in the canonical ensemble. The non-geometric integrator induces a drift in the invariant quantity, while our integrator has no such drift, thus ensuring that the system is effectively sampling the correct ensemble.
Ensemble Kinetic Modeling of Metabolic Networks from Dynamic Metabolic Profiles
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gengjie Jia
2012-11-01
Full Text Available Kinetic modeling of metabolic pathways has important applications in metabolic engineering, but significant challenges still remain. The difficulties faced vary from finding best-fit parameters in a highly multidimensional search space to incomplete parameter identifiability. To meet some of these challenges, an ensemble modeling method is developed for characterizing a subset of kinetic parameters that give statistically equivalent goodness-of-fit to time series concentration data. The method is based on the incremental identification approach, where the parameter estimation is done in a step-wise manner. Numerical efficacy is achieved by reducing the dimensionality of parameter space and using efficient random parameter exploration algorithms. The shift toward using model ensembles, instead of the traditional “best-fit” models, is necessary to directly account for model uncertainty during the application of such models. The performance of the ensemble modeling approach has been demonstrated in the modeling of a generic branched pathway and the trehalose pathway in Saccharomyces cerevisiae using generalized mass action (GMA kinetics.
SAChES: Scalable Adaptive Chain-Ensemble Sampling.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Swiler, Laura Painton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ray, Jaideep [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Ebeida, Mohamed Salah [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Huang, Maoyi [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hou, Zhangshuan [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bao, Jie [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ren, Huiying [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
2017-08-01
We present the development of a parallel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method called SAChES, Scalable Adaptive Chain-Ensemble Sampling. This capability is targed to Bayesian calibration of com- putationally expensive simulation models. SAChES involves a hybrid of two methods: Differential Evo- lution Monte Carlo followed by Adaptive Metropolis. Both methods involve parallel chains. Differential evolution allows one to explore high-dimensional parameter spaces using loosely coupled (i.e., largely asynchronous) chains. Loose coupling allows the use of large chain ensembles, with far more chains than the number of parameters to explore. This reduces per-chain sampling burden, enables high-dimensional inversions and the use of computationally expensive forward models. The large number of chains can also ameliorate the impact of silent-errors, which may affect only a few chains. The chain ensemble can also be sampled to provide an initial condition when an aberrant chain is re-spawned. Adaptive Metropolis takes the best points from the differential evolution and efficiently hones in on the poste- rior density. The multitude of chains in SAChES is leveraged to (1) enable efficient exploration of the parameter space; and (2) ensure robustness to silent errors which may be unavoidable in extreme-scale computational platforms of the future. This report outlines SAChES, describes four papers that are the result of the project, and discusses some additional results.
Dispersion Modeling Using Ensemble Forecasts Compared to ETEX Measurements.
Straume, Anne Grete; N'dri Koffi, Ernest; Nodop, Katrin
1998-11-01
Numerous numerical models are developed to predict long-range transport of hazardous air pollution in connection with accidental releases. When evaluating and improving such a model, it is important to detect uncertainties connected to the meteorological input data. A Lagrangian dispersion model, the Severe Nuclear Accident Program, is used here to investigate the effect of errors in the meteorological input data due to analysis error. An ensemble forecast, produced at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, is then used as model input. The ensemble forecast members are generated by perturbing the initial meteorological fields of the weather forecast. The perturbations are calculated from singular vectors meant to represent possible forecast developments generated by instabilities in the atmospheric flow during the early part of the forecast. The instabilities are generated by errors in the analyzed fields. Puff predictions from the dispersion model, using ensemble forecast input, are compared, and a large spread in the predicted puff evolutions is found. This shows that the quality of the meteorological input data is important for the success of the dispersion model. In order to evaluate the dispersion model, the calculations are compared with measurements from the European Tracer Experiment. The model manages to predict the measured puff evolution concerning shape and time of arrival to a fairly high extent, up to 60 h after the start of the release. The modeled puff is still too narrow in the advection direction.
Modelling machine ensembles with discrete event dynamical system theory
Hunter, Dan
1990-01-01
Discrete Event Dynamical System (DEDS) theory can be utilized as a control strategy for future complex machine ensembles that will be required for in-space construction. The control strategy involves orchestrating a set of interactive submachines to perform a set of tasks for a given set of constraints such as minimum time, minimum energy, or maximum machine utilization. Machine ensembles can be hierarchically modeled as a global model that combines the operations of the individual submachines. These submachines are represented in the global model as local models. Local models, from the perspective of DEDS theory , are described by the following: a set of system and transition states, an event alphabet that portrays actions that takes a submachine from one state to another, an initial system state, a partial function that maps the current state and event alphabet to the next state, and the time required for the event to occur. Each submachine in the machine ensemble is presented by a unique local model. The global model combines the local models such that the local models can operate in parallel under the additional logistic and physical constraints due to submachine interactions. The global model is constructed from the states, events, event functions, and timing requirements of the local models. Supervisory control can be implemented in the global model by various methods such as task scheduling (open-loop control) or implementing a feedback DEDS controller (closed-loop control).
Tridiagonal realization of the antisymmetric Gaussian β-ensemble
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dumitriu, Ioana; Forrester, Peter J.
2010-01-01
The Householder reduction of a member of the antisymmetric Gaussian unitary ensemble gives an antisymmetric tridiagonal matrix with all independent elements. The random variables permit the introduction of a positive parameter β, and the eigenvalue probability density function of the corresponding random matrices can be computed explicitly, as can the distribution of (q i ), the first components of the eigenvectors. Three proofs are given. One involves an inductive construction based on bordering of a family of random matrices which are shown to have the same distributions as the antisymmetric tridiagonal matrices. This proof uses the Dixon-Anderson integral from Selberg integral theory. A second proof involves the explicit computation of the Jacobian for the change of variables between real antisymmetric tridiagonal matrices, its eigenvalues, and (q i ). The third proof maps matrices from the antisymmetric Gaussian β-ensemble to those realizing particular examples of the Laguerre β-ensemble. In addition to these proofs, we note some simple properties of the shooting eigenvector and associated Pruefer phases of the random matrices.
Ensemble stacking mitigates biases in inference of synaptic connectivity.
Chambers, Brendan; Levy, Maayan; Dechery, Joseph B; MacLean, Jason N
2018-01-01
A promising alternative to directly measuring the anatomical connections in a neuronal population is inferring the connections from the activity. We employ simulated spiking neuronal networks to compare and contrast commonly used inference methods that identify likely excitatory synaptic connections using statistical regularities in spike timing. We find that simple adjustments to standard algorithms improve inference accuracy: A signing procedure improves the power of unsigned mutual-information-based approaches and a correction that accounts for differences in mean and variance of background timing relationships, such as those expected to be induced by heterogeneous firing rates, increases the sensitivity of frequency-based methods. We also find that different inference methods reveal distinct subsets of the synaptic network and each method exhibits different biases in the accurate detection of reciprocity and local clustering. To correct for errors and biases specific to single inference algorithms, we combine methods into an ensemble. Ensemble predictions, generated as a linear combination of multiple inference algorithms, are more sensitive than the best individual measures alone, and are more faithful to ground-truth statistics of connectivity, mitigating biases specific to single inference methods. These weightings generalize across simulated datasets, emphasizing the potential for the broad utility of ensemble-based approaches.
Effective theory of the D = 3 center vortex ensemble
Oxman, L. E.; Reinhardt, H.
2018-03-01
By means of lattice calculations, center vortices have been established as the infrared dominant gauge field configurations of Yang-Mills theory. In this work, we investigate an ensemble of center vortices in D = 3 Euclidean space-time dimension where they form closed flux loops. To account for the properties of center vortices detected on the lattice, they are equipped with tension, stiffness and a repulsive contact interaction. The ensemble of oriented center vortices is then mapped onto an effective theory of a complex scalar field with a U(1) symmetry. For a positive tension, small vortex loops are favoured and the Wilson loop displays a perimeter law while for a negative tension, large loops dominate the ensemble. In this case the U(1) symmetry of the effective scalar field theory is spontaneously broken and the Wilson loop shows an area law. To account for the large quantum fluctuations of the corresponding Goldstone modes, we use a lattice representation, which results in an XY model with frustration, for which we also study the Villain approximation.
Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad
2015-12-08
Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.
Probability Maps for the Visualization of Assimilation Ensemble Flow Data
Hollt, Thomas
2015-05-25
Ocean forecasts nowadays are created by running ensemble simulations in combination with data assimilation techniques. Most of these techniques resample the ensemble members after each assimilation cycle. This means that in a time series, after resampling, every member can follow up on any of the members before resampling. Tracking behavior over time, such as all possible paths of a particle in an ensemble vector field, becomes very difficult, as the number of combinations rises exponentially with the number of assimilation cycles. In general a single possible path is not of interest but only the probabilities that any point in space might be reached by a particle at some point in time. In this work we present an approach using probability-weighted piecewise particle trajectories to allow such a mapping interactively, instead of tracing quadrillions of individual particles. We achieve interactive rates by binning the domain and splitting up the tracing process into the individual assimilation cycles, so that particles that fall into the same bin after a cycle can be treated as a single particle with a larger probability as input for the next time step. As a result we loose the possibility to track individual particles, but can create probability maps for any desired seed at interactive rates.
Harmony Search Based Parameter Ensemble Adaptation for Differential Evolution
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rammohan Mallipeddi
2013-01-01
Full Text Available In differential evolution (DE algorithm, depending on the characteristics of the problem at hand and the available computational resources, different strategies combined with a different set of parameters may be effective. In addition, a single, well-tuned combination of strategies and parameters may not guarantee optimal performance because different strategies combined with different parameter settings can be appropriate during different stages of the evolution. Therefore, various adaptive/self-adaptive techniques have been proposed to adapt the DE strategies and parameters during the course of evolution. In this paper, we propose a new parameter adaptation technique for DE based on ensemble approach and harmony search algorithm (HS. In the proposed method, an ensemble of parameters is randomly sampled which form the initial harmony memory. The parameter ensemble evolves during the course of the optimization process by HS algorithm. Each parameter combination in the harmony memory is evaluated by testing them on the DE population. The performance of the proposed adaptation method is evaluated using two recently proposed strategies (DE/current-to-pbest/bin and DE/current-to-gr_best/bin as basic DE frameworks. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptation technique compared to the state-of-the-art DE based algorithms on a set of challenging test problems (CEC 2005.
Village Building Identification Based on Ensemble Convolutional Neural Networks
Guo, Zhiling; Chen, Qi; Xu, Yongwei; Shibasaki, Ryosuke; Shao, Xiaowei
2017-01-01
In this study, we present the Ensemble Convolutional Neural Network (ECNN), an elaborate CNN frame formulated based on ensembling state-of-the-art CNN models, to identify village buildings from open high-resolution remote sensing (HRRS) images. First, to optimize and mine the capability of CNN for village mapping and to ensure compatibility with our classification targets, a few state-of-the-art models were carefully optimized and enhanced based on a series of rigorous analyses and evaluations. Second, rather than directly implementing building identification by using these models, we exploited most of their advantages by ensembling their feature extractor parts into a stronger model called ECNN based on the multiscale feature learning method. Finally, the generated ECNN was applied to a pixel-level classification frame to implement object identification. The proposed method can serve as a viable tool for village building identification with high accuracy and efficiency. The experimental results obtained from the test area in Savannakhet province, Laos, prove that the proposed ECNN model significantly outperforms existing methods, improving overall accuracy from 96.64% to 99.26%, and kappa from 0.57 to 0.86. PMID:29084154
Ensemble forecasting of potential habitat for three invasive fishes
Poulos, Helen M.; Chernoff, Barry; Fuller, Pam L.; Butman, David
2012-01-01
Aquatic invasive species pose major ecological and economic threats to aquatic ecosystems worldwide via displacement, predation, or hybridization with native species and the alteration of aquatic habitats and hydrologic cycles. Modeling the habitat suitability of alien aquatic species through spatially explicit mapping is an increasingly important risk assessment tool. Habitat modeling also facilitates identification of key environmental variables influencing invasive species distributions. We compared four modeling methods to predict the potential continental United States distributions of northern snakehead Channa argus (Cantor, 1842), round goby Neogobius melanostomus (Pallas, 1814), and silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix (Valenciennes, 1844) using maximum entropy (Maxent), the genetic algorithm for rule set production (GARP), DOMAIN, and support vector machines (SVM). We used inventory records from the USGS Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Database and a geographic information system of 20 climatic and environmental variables to generate individual and ensemble distribution maps for each species. The ensemble maps from our study performed as well as or better than all of the individual models except Maxent. The ensemble and Maxent models produced significantly higher accuracy individual maps than GARP, one-class SVMs, or DOMAIN. The key environmental predictor variables in the individual models were consistent with the tolerances of each species. Results from this study provide insights into which locations and environmental conditions may promote the future spread of invasive fish in the US.
Girsanov reweighting for path ensembles and Markov state models
Donati, L.; Hartmann, C.; Keller, B. G.
2017-06-01
The sensitivity of molecular dynamics on changes in the potential energy function plays an important role in understanding the dynamics and function of complex molecules. We present a method to obtain path ensemble averages of a perturbed dynamics from a set of paths generated by a reference dynamics. It is based on the concept of path probability measure and the Girsanov theorem, a result from stochastic analysis to estimate a change of measure of a path ensemble. Since Markov state models (MSMs) of the molecular dynamics can be formulated as a combined phase-space and path ensemble average, the method can be extended to reweight MSMs by combining it with a reweighting of the Boltzmann distribution. We demonstrate how to efficiently implement the Girsanov reweighting in a molecular dynamics simulation program by calculating parts of the reweighting factor "on the fly" during the simulation, and we benchmark the method on test systems ranging from a two-dimensional diffusion process and an artificial many-body system to alanine dipeptide and valine dipeptide in implicit and explicit water. The method can be used to study the sensitivity of molecular dynamics on external perturbations as well as to reweight trajectories generated by enhanced sampling schemes to the original dynamics.
Ensemble bayesian model averaging using markov chain Monte Carlo sampling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Diks, Cees G H [NON LANL; Clark, Martyn P [NON LANL
2008-01-01
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a statistical method to calibrate forecast ensembles from numerical weather models. Successful implementation of BMA however, requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble. In their seminal paper (Raftery etal. Mon Weather Rev 133: 1155-1174, 2(05)) has recommended the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for BMA model training, even though global convergence of this algorithm cannot be guaranteed. In this paper, we compare the performance of the EM algorithm and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating the BMA weights and variances. Simulation experiments using 48-hour ensemble data of surface temperature and multi-model stream-flow forecasts show that both methods produce similar results, and that their performance is unaffected by the length of the training data set. However, MCMC simulation with DREAM is capable of efficiently handling a wide variety of BMA predictive distributions, and provides useful information about the uncertainty associated with the estimated BMA weights and variances.
Thermodynamics and kinetics of a molecular motor ensemble.
Baker, J E; Thomas, D D
2000-10-01
If, contrary to conventional models of muscle, it is assumed that molecular forces equilibrate among rather than within molecular motors, an equation of state and an expression for energy output can be obtained for a near-equilibrium, coworking ensemble of molecular motors. These equations predict clear, testable relationships between motor structure, motor biochemistry, and ensemble motor function, and we discuss these relationships in the context of various experimental studies. In this model, net work by molecular motors is performed with the relaxation of a near-equilibrium intermediate step in a motor-catalyzed reaction. The free energy available for work is localized to this step, and the rate at which this free energy is transferred to work is accelerated by the free energy of a motor-catalyzed reaction. This thermodynamic model implicitly deals with a motile cell system as a dynamic network (not a rigid lattice) of molecular motors within which the mechanochemistry of one motor influences and is influenced by the mechanochemistry of other motors in the ensemble.
ENSEMBLE methods to reconcile disparate national long range dispersion forecasts
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mikkelsen, Torben; Galmarini, S.; Bianconi, R.
2003-01-01
ENSEMBLE is a web-based decision support system for real-time exchange and evaluation of national long-range dispersion forecasts of nuclear releases with cross-boundary consequences. The system is developed with the purpose to reconcile among disparatenational forecasts for long-range dispersion...... emergency and meteorological forecasting centres, which may choose to integrate them directly intooperational emergency information systems, or possibly use them as a basis for future system development.......ENSEMBLE is a web-based decision support system for real-time exchange and evaluation of national long-range dispersion forecasts of nuclear releases with cross-boundary consequences. The system is developed with the purpose to reconcile among disparatenational forecasts for long-range dispersion....... ENSEMBLE addresses the problem of achieving a common coherent strategy across European national emergency management when national long-range dispersion forecasts differ from one another during an accidentalatmospheric release of radioactive material. A series of new decision-making “ENSEMBLE” procedures...
Geometric integrator for simulations in the canonical ensemble
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tapias, Diego; Sanders, David P.; Bravetti, Alessandro
2016-01-01
We introduce a geometric integrator for molecular dynamics simulations of physical systems in the canonical ensemble that preserves the invariant distribution in equations arising from the density dynamics algorithm, with any possible type of thermostat. Our integrator thus constitutes a unified framework that allows the study and comparison of different thermostats and of their influence on the equilibrium and non-equilibrium (thermo-)dynamic properties of a system. To show the validity and the generality of the integrator, we implement it with a second-order, time-reversible method and apply it to the simulation of a Lennard-Jones system with three different thermostats, obtaining good conservation of the geometrical properties and recovering the expected thermodynamic results. Moreover, to show the advantage of our geometric integrator over a non-geometric one, we compare the results with those obtained by using the non-geometric Gear integrator, which is frequently used to perform simulations in the canonical ensemble. The non-geometric integrator induces a drift in the invariant quantity, while our integrator has no such drift, thus ensuring that the system is effectively sampling the correct ensemble.
Ensemble of ground subsidence hazard maps using fuzzy logic
Park, Inhye; Lee, Jiyeong; Saro, Lee
2014-06-01
Hazard maps of ground subsidence around abandoned underground coal mines (AUCMs) in Samcheok, Korea, were constructed using fuzzy ensemble techniques and a geographical information system (GIS). To evaluate the factors related to ground subsidence, a spatial database was constructed from topographic, geologic, mine tunnel, land use, groundwater, and ground subsidence maps. Spatial data, topography, geology, and various ground-engineering data for the subsidence area were collected and compiled in a database for mapping ground-subsidence hazard (GSH). The subsidence area was randomly split 70/30 for training and validation of the models. The relationships between the detected ground-subsidence area and the factors were identified and quantified by frequency ratio (FR), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models. The relationships were used as factor ratings in the overlay analysis to create ground-subsidence hazard indexes and maps. The three GSH maps were then used as new input factors and integrated using fuzzy-ensemble methods to make better hazard maps. All of the hazard maps were validated by comparison with known subsidence areas that were not used directly in the analysis. As the result, the ensemble model was found to be more effective in terms of prediction accuracy than the individual model.
Ensemble-free configurational temperature for spin systems
Palma, G.; Gutiérrez, G.; Davis, S.
2016-12-01
An estimator for the dynamical temperature in an arbitrary ensemble is derived in the framework of the conjugate variables theorem. We prove directly that its average indeed gives the inverse temperature and that it is independent of the ensemble. We test this estimator numerically by a simulation of the two-dimensional X Y model in the canonical ensemble. As this model is critical in the whole region of temperatures below the Berezinski-Kosterlitz-Thouless critical temperature TBKT, we use a generalization of Wolff's unicluster algorithm. The numerical results allow us to confirm the robustness of the analytical expression for the microscopic estimator of the temperature. This microscopic estimator has also the advantage that it gives a direct measure of the thermalization process and can be used to compute absolute errors associated with statistical fluctuations. In consequence, this estimator allows for a direct, absolute, and stringent test of the ergodicity of the underlying Markov process, which encodes the algorithm used in a numerical simulation.
HIPPI: highly accurate protein family classification with ensembles of HMMs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nam-phuong Nguyen
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Given a new biological sequence, detecting membership in a known family is a basic step in many bioinformatics analyses, with applications to protein structure and function prediction and metagenomic taxon identification and abundance profiling, among others. Yet family identification of sequences that are distantly related to sequences in public databases or that are fragmentary remains one of the more difficult analytical problems in bioinformatics. Results We present a new technique for family identification called HIPPI (Hierarchical Profile Hidden Markov Models for Protein family Identification. HIPPI uses a novel technique to represent a multiple sequence alignment for a given protein family or superfamily by an ensemble of profile hidden Markov models computed using HMMER. An evaluation of HIPPI on the Pfam database shows that HIPPI has better overall precision and recall than blastp, HMMER, and pipelines based on HHsearch, and maintains good accuracy even for fragmentary query sequences and for protein families with low average pairwise sequence identity, both conditions where other methods degrade in accuracy. Conclusion HIPPI provides accurate protein family identification and is robust to difficult model conditions. Our results, combined with observations from previous studies, show that ensembles of profile Hidden Markov models can better represent multiple sequence alignments than a single profile Hidden Markov model, and thus can improve downstream analyses for various bioinformatic tasks. Further research is needed to determine the best practices for building the ensemble of profile Hidden Markov models. HIPPI is available on GitHub at https://github.com/smirarab/sepp .
Comprehensive Study on Lexicon-based Ensemble Classification Sentiment Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Łukasz Augustyniak
2015-12-01
Full Text Available We propose a novel method for counting sentiment orientation that outperforms supervised learning approaches in time and memory complexity and is not statistically significantly different from them in accuracy. Our method consists of a novel approach to generating unigram, bigram and trigram lexicons. The proposed method, called frequentiment, is based on calculating the frequency of features (words in the document and averaging their impact on the sentiment score as opposed to documents that do not contain these features. Afterwards, we use ensemble classification to improve the overall accuracy of the method. What is important is that the frequentiment-based lexicons with sentiment threshold selection outperform other popular lexicons and some supervised learners, while being 3–5 times faster than the supervised approach. We compare 37 methods (lexicons, ensembles with lexicon’s predictions as input and supervised learners applied to 10 Amazon review data sets and provide the first statistical comparison of the sentiment annotation methods that include ensemble approaches. It is one of the most comprehensive comparisons of domain sentiment analysis in the literature.
Spatial Ensemble Postprocessing of Precipitation Forecasts Using High Resolution Analyses
Lang, Moritz N.; Schicker, Irene; Kann, Alexander; Wang, Yong
2017-04-01
Ensemble prediction systems are designed to account for errors or uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions, imperfect parameterizations, etc. However, due to sampling errors and underestimation of the model errors, these ensemble forecasts tend to be underdispersive, and to lack both reliability and sharpness. To overcome such limitations, statistical postprocessing methods are commonly applied to these forecasts. In this study, a full-distributional spatial post-processing method is applied to short-range precipitation forecasts over Austria using Standardized Anomaly Model Output Statistics (SAMOS). Following Stauffer et al. (2016), observation and forecast fields are transformed into standardized anomalies by subtracting a site-specific climatological mean and dividing by the climatological standard deviation. Due to the need of fitting only a single regression model for the whole domain, the SAMOS framework provides a computationally inexpensive method to create operationally calibrated probabilistic forecasts for any arbitrary location or for all grid points in the domain simultaneously. Taking advantage of the INCA system (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis), high resolution analyses are used for the computation of the observed climatology and for model training. The INCA system operationally combines station measurements and remote sensing data into real-time objective analysis fields at 1 km-horizontal resolution and 1 h-temporal resolution. The precipitation forecast used in this study is obtained from a limited area model ensemble prediction system also operated by ZAMG. The so called ALADIN-LAEF provides, by applying a multi-physics approach, a 17-member forecast at a horizontal resolution of 10.9 km and a temporal resolution of 1 hour. The performed SAMOS approach statistically combines the in-house developed high resolution analysis and ensemble prediction system. The station-based validation of 6 hour precipitation sums
Stochastic Approaches Within a High Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble
Jankov, I.
2017-12-01
It is well known that global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble systems are under-dispersive, producing unreliable and overconfident ensemble forecasts. Typical approaches to alleviate this problem include the use of multiple dynamic cores, multiple physics suite configurations, or a combination of the two. While these approaches may produce desirable results, they have practical and theoretical deficiencies and are more difficult and costly to maintain. An active area of research that promotes a more unified and sustainable system is the use of stochastic physics. Stochastic approaches include Stochastic Parameter Perturbations (SPP), Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB), and Stochastic Perturbation of Physics Tendencies (SPPT). The focus of this study is to assess model performance within a convection-permitting ensemble at 3-km grid spacing across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using a variety of stochastic approaches. A single physics suite configuration based on the operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model was utilized and ensemble members produced by employing stochastic methods. Parameter perturbations (using SPP) for select fields were employed in the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) and Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) schemes. Within MYNN, SPP was applied to sub-grid cloud fraction, mixing length, roughness length, mass fluxes and Prandtl number. In the RUC LSM, SPP was applied to hydraulic conductivity and tested perturbing soil moisture at initial time. First iterative testing was conducted to assess the initial performance of several configuration settings (e.g. variety of spatial and temporal de-correlation lengths). Upon selection of the most promising candidate configurations using SPP, a 10-day time period was run and more robust statistics were gathered. SKEB and SPPT were included in additional retrospective tests to assess the impact of using
Ensemble stacking mitigates biases in inference of synaptic connectivity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Brendan Chambers
2018-03-01
Full Text Available A promising alternative to directly measuring the anatomical connections in a neuronal population is inferring the connections from the activity. We employ simulated spiking neuronal networks to compare and contrast commonly used inference methods that identify likely excitatory synaptic connections using statistical regularities in spike timing. We find that simple adjustments to standard algorithms improve inference accuracy: A signing procedure improves the power of unsigned mutual-information-based approaches and a correction that accounts for differences in mean and variance of background timing relationships, such as those expected to be induced by heterogeneous firing rates, increases the sensitivity of frequency-based methods. We also find that different inference methods reveal distinct subsets of the synaptic network and each method exhibits different biases in the accurate detection of reciprocity and local clustering. To correct for errors and biases specific to single inference algorithms, we combine methods into an ensemble. Ensemble predictions, generated as a linear combination of multiple inference algorithms, are more sensitive than the best individual measures alone, and are more faithful to ground-truth statistics of connectivity, mitigating biases specific to single inference methods. These weightings generalize across simulated datasets, emphasizing the potential for the broad utility of ensemble-based approaches. Mapping the routing of spikes through local circuitry is crucial for understanding neocortical computation. Under appropriate experimental conditions, these maps can be used to infer likely patterns of synaptic recruitment, linking activity to underlying anatomical connections. Such inferences help to reveal the synaptic implementation of population dynamics and computation. We compare a number of standard functional measures to infer underlying connectivity. We find that regularization impacts measures
An ensemble model of QSAR tools for regulatory risk assessment.
Pradeep, Prachi; Povinelli, Richard J; White, Shannon; Merrill, Stephen J
2016-01-01
Quantitative structure activity relationships (QSARs) are theoretical models that relate a quantitative measure of chemical structure to a physical property or a biological effect. QSAR predictions can be used for chemical risk assessment for protection of human and environmental health, which makes them interesting to regulators, especially in the absence of experimental data. For compatibility with regulatory use, QSAR models should be transparent, reproducible and optimized to minimize the number of false negatives. In silico QSAR tools are gaining wide acceptance as a faster alternative to otherwise time-consuming clinical and animal testing methods. However, different QSAR tools often make conflicting predictions for a given chemical and may also vary in their predictive performance across different chemical datasets. In a regulatory context, conflicting predictions raise interpretation, validation and adequacy concerns. To address these concerns, ensemble learning techniques in the machine learning paradigm can be used to integrate predictions from multiple tools. By leveraging various underlying QSAR algorithms and training datasets, the resulting consensus prediction should yield better overall predictive ability. We present a novel ensemble QSAR model using Bayesian classification. The model allows for varying a cut-off parameter that allows for a selection in the desirable trade-off between model sensitivity and specificity. The predictive performance of the ensemble model is compared with four in silico tools (Toxtree, Lazar, OECD Toolbox, and Danish QSAR) to predict carcinogenicity for a dataset of air toxins (332 chemicals) and a subset of the gold carcinogenic potency database (480 chemicals). Leave-one-out cross validation results show that the ensemble model achieves the best trade-off between sensitivity and specificity (accuracy: 83.8 % and 80.4 %, and balanced accuracy: 80.6 % and 80.8 %) and highest inter-rater agreement [kappa ( κ ): 0
Hopson, T. M.
2014-12-01
One potential benefit of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) is its capacity to forecast its own forecast error through the ensemble spread-error relationship. In practice, an EPS is often quite limited in its ability to represent the variable expectation of forecast error through the variable dispersion of the ensemble, and perhaps more fundamentally, in its ability to provide enough variability in the ensembles dispersion to make the skill-spread relationship even potentially useful (irrespective of whether the EPS is well-calibrated or not). In this paper we examine the ensemble skill-spread relationship of an ensemble constructed from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts and a combination of multi-model and post-processing approaches. Both of the multi-model and post-processing techniques are based on quantile regression (QR) under a step-wise forward selection framework leading to ensemble forecasts with both good reliability and sharpness. The methodology utilizes the ensemble's ability to self-diagnose forecast instability to produce calibrated forecasts with informative skill-spread relationships. A context for these concepts is provided by assessing the constructed ensemble in forecasting district-level humidity impacting the incidence of meningitis in the meningitis belt of Africa, and in forecasting flooding events in the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins of South Asia.
Conservation of Mass and Preservation of Positivity with Ensemble-Type Kalman Filter Algorithms
Janjic, Tijana; Mclaughlin, Dennis; Cohn, Stephen E.; Verlaan, Martin
2014-01-01
This paper considers the incorporation of constraints to enforce physically based conservation laws in the ensemble Kalman filter. In particular, constraints are used to ensure that the ensemble members and the ensemble mean conserve mass and remain nonnegative through measurement updates. In certain situations filtering algorithms such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) yield updated ensembles that conserve mass but are negative, even though the actual states must be nonnegative. In such situations if negative values are set to zero, or a log transform is introduced, the total mass will not be conserved. In this study, mass and positivity are both preserved by formulating the filter update as a set of quadratic programming problems that incorporate non-negativity constraints. Simple numerical experiments indicate that this approach can have a significant positive impact on the posterior ensemble distribution, giving results that are more physically plausible both for individual ensemble members and for the ensemble mean. In two examples, an update that includes a non-negativity constraint is able to properly describe the transport of a sharp feature (e.g., a triangle or cone). A number of implementation questions still need to be addressed, particularly the need to develop a computationally efficient quadratic programming update for large ensemble.
Lessons from Climate Modeling on the Design and Use of Ensembles for Crop Modeling
Wallach, Daniel; Mearns, Linda O.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Roetter, Reimund P.; Asseng, Senthold
2016-01-01
Working with ensembles of crop models is a recent but important development in crop modeling which promises to lead to better uncertainty estimates for model projections and predictions, better predictions using the ensemble mean or median, and closer collaboration within the modeling community. There are numerous open questions about the best way to create and analyze such ensembles. Much can be learned from the field of climate modeling, given its much longer experience with ensembles. We draw on that experience to identify questions and make propositions that should help make ensemble modeling with crop models more rigorous and informative. The propositions include defining criteria for acceptance of models in a crop MME, exploring criteria for evaluating the degree of relatedness of models in a MME, studying the effect of number of models in the ensemble, development of a statistical model of model sampling, creation of a repository for MME results, studies of possible differential weighting of models in an ensemble, creation of single model ensembles based on sampling from the uncertainty distribution of parameter values or inputs specifically oriented toward uncertainty estimation, the creation of super ensembles that sample more than one source of uncertainty, the analysis of super ensemble results to obtain information on total uncertainty and the separate contributions of different sources of uncertainty and finally further investigation of the use of the multi-model mean or median as a predictor.
River Flow Prediction Using the Nearest Neighbor Probabilistic Ensemble Method
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
H. Sanikhani
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Introduction: In the recent years, researchers interested on probabilistic forecasting of hydrologic variables such river flow.A probabilistic approach aims at quantifying the prediction reliability through a probability distribution function or a prediction interval for the unknown future value. The evaluation of the uncertainty associated to the forecast is seen as a fundamental information, not only to correctly assess the prediction, but also to compare forecasts from different methods and to evaluate actions and decisions conditionally on the expected values. Several probabilistic approaches have been proposed in the literature, including (1 methods that use resampling techniques to assess parameter and model uncertainty, such as the Metropolis algorithm or the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE methodology for an application to runoff prediction, (2 methods based on processing the forecast errors of past data to produce the probability distributions of future values and (3 methods that evaluate how the uncertainty propagates from the rainfall forecast to the river discharge prediction, as the Bayesian forecasting system. Materials and Methods: In this study, two different probabilistic methods are used for river flow prediction.Then the uncertainty related to the forecast is quantified. One approach is based on linear predictors and in the other, nearest neighbor was used. The nonlinear probabilistic ensemble can be used for nonlinear time series analysis using locally linear predictors, while NNPE utilize a method adapted for one step ahead nearest neighbor methods. In this regard, daily river discharge (twelve years of Dizaj and Mashin Stations on Baranduz-Chay basin in west Azerbijan and Zard-River basin in Khouzestan provinces were used, respectively. The first six years of data was applied for fitting the model. The next three years was used to calibration and the remained three yeas utilized for testing the models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan
2013-01-01
all these methods is that the climate models are independent. This study addresses the validity of this assumption for two ensembles of regional climate models (RCMs) from the Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project based on the land cells covering Denmark....... Daily precipitation indices from an ensemble of RCMs driven by the 40-yrECMWFRe-Analysis (ERA-40) and an ensemble of the same RCMs driven by different general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed. Two different methods are used to estimate the amount of independent information in the ensembles....... These are based on different statistical properties of a measure of climate model error. Additionally, a hierarchical cluster analysis is carried out. Regardless of the method used, the effective number of RCMs is smaller than the total number of RCMs. The estimated effective number of RCMs varies depending...
Visualization and classification of physiological failure modes in ensemble hemorrhage simulation
Zhang, Song; Pruett, William Andrew; Hester, Robert
2015-01-01
In an emergency situation such as hemorrhage, doctors need to predict which patients need immediate treatment and care. This task is difficult because of the diverse response to hemorrhage in human population. Ensemble physiological simulations provide a means to sample a diverse range of subjects and may have a better chance of containing the correct solution. However, to reveal the patterns and trends from the ensemble simulation is a challenging task. We have developed a visualization framework for ensemble physiological simulations. The visualization helps users identify trends among ensemble members, classify ensemble member into subpopulations for analysis, and provide prediction to future events by matching a new patient's data to existing ensembles. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the visualization on simulated physiological data. The lessons learned here can be applied to clinically-collected physiological data in the future.
A Bayesian ensemble of sensitivity measures for severe accident modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Department of Basic Sciences, East Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Di Maio, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaio@polimi.it [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Vagnoli, Matteo [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Zio, Enrico [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Chair on System Science and Energetic Challenge, Fondation EDF – Electricite de France Ecole Centrale, Paris, and Supelec, Paris (France); Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)
2015-12-15
Highlights: • We propose a sensitivity analysis (SA) method based on a Bayesian updating scheme. • The Bayesian updating schemes adjourns an ensemble of sensitivity measures. • Bootstrap replicates of a severe accident code output are fed to the Bayesian scheme. • The MELCOR code simulates the fission products release of LOFT LP-FP-2 experiment. • Results are compared with those of traditional SA methods. - Abstract: In this work, a sensitivity analysis framework is presented to identify the relevant input variables of a severe accident code, based on an incremental Bayesian ensemble updating method. The proposed methodology entails: (i) the propagation of the uncertainty in the input variables through the severe accident code; (ii) the collection of bootstrap replicates of the input and output of limited number of simulations for building a set of finite mixture models (FMMs) for approximating the probability density function (pdf) of the severe accident code output of the replicates; (iii) for each FMM, the calculation of an ensemble of sensitivity measures (i.e., input saliency, Hellinger distance and Kullback–Leibler divergence) and the updating when a new piece of evidence arrives, by a Bayesian scheme, based on the Bradley–Terry model for ranking the most relevant input model variables. An application is given with respect to a limited number of simulations of a MELCOR severe accident model describing the fission products release in the LP-FP-2 experiment of the loss of fluid test (LOFT) facility, which is a scaled-down facility of a pressurized water reactor (PWR).
Quantifying polypeptide conformational space: sensitivity to conformation and ensemble definition.
Sullivan, David C; Lim, Carmay
2006-08-24
Quantifying the density of conformations over phase space (the conformational distribution) is needed to model important macromolecular processes such as protein folding. In this work, we quantify the conformational distribution for a simple polypeptide (N-mer polyalanine) using the cumulative distribution function (CDF), which gives the probability that two randomly selected conformations are separated by less than a "conformational" distance and whose inverse gives conformation counts as a function of conformational radius. An important finding is that the conformation counts obtained by the CDF inverse depend critically on the assignment of a conformation's distance span and the ensemble (e.g., unfolded state model): varying ensemble and conformation definition (1 --> 2 A) varies the CDF-based conformation counts for Ala(50) from 10(11) to 10(69). In particular, relatively short molecular dynamics (MD) relaxation of Ala(50)'s random-walk ensemble reduces the number of conformers from 10(55) to 10(14) (using a 1 A root-mean-square-deviation radius conformation definition) pointing to potential disconnections in comparing the results from simplified models of unfolded proteins with those from all-atom MD simulations. Explicit waters are found to roughen the landscape considerably. Under some common conformation definitions, the results herein provide (i) an upper limit to the number of accessible conformations that compose unfolded states of proteins, (ii) the optimal clustering radius/conformation radius for counting conformations for a given energy and solvent model, (iii) a means of comparing various studies, and (iv) an assessment of the applicability of random search in protein folding.
Automated ensemble assembly and validation of microbial genomes
2014-01-01
Background The continued democratization of DNA sequencing has sparked a new wave of development of genome assembly and assembly validation methods. As individual research labs, rather than centralized centers, begin to sequence the majority of new genomes, it is important to establish best practices for genome assembly. However, recent evaluations such as GAGE and the Assemblathon have concluded that there is no single best approach to genome assembly. Instead, it is preferable to generate multiple assemblies and validate them to determine which is most useful for the desired analysis; this is a labor-intensive process that is often impossible or unfeasible. Results To encourage best practices supported by the community, we present iMetAMOS, an automated ensemble assembly pipeline; iMetAMOS encapsulates the process of running, validating, and selecting a single assembly from multiple assemblies. iMetAMOS packages several leading open-source tools into a single binary that automates parameter selection and execution of multiple assemblers, scores the resulting assemblies based on multiple validation metrics, and annotates the assemblies for genes and contaminants. We demonstrate the utility of the ensemble process on 225 previously unassembled Mycobacterium tuberculosis genomes as well as a Rhodobacter sphaeroides benchmark dataset. On these real data, iMetAMOS reliably produces validated assemblies and identifies potential contamination without user intervention. In addition, intelligent parameter selection produces assemblies of R. sphaeroides comparable to or exceeding the quality of those from the GAGE-B evaluation, affecting the relative ranking of some assemblers. Conclusions Ensemble assembly with iMetAMOS provides users with multiple, validated assemblies for each genome. Although computationally limited to small or mid-sized genomes, this approach is the most effective and reproducible means for generating high-quality assemblies and enables users to
Conditions for equivalence of statistical ensembles in nuclear multifragmentation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mallik, Swagata; Chaudhuri, Gargi
2012-01-01
Statistical models based on canonical and grand canonical ensembles are extensively used to study intermediate energy heavy-ion collisions. The underlying physical assumption behind canonical and grand canonical models is fundamentally different, and in principle agree only in the thermodynamical limit when the number of particles become infinite. Nevertheless, we show that these models are equivalent in the sense that they predict similar results if certain conditions are met even for finite nuclei. In particular, the results converge when nuclear multifragmentation leads to the formation of predominantly nucleons and low mass clusters. The conditions under which the equivalence holds are amenable to present day experiments.
Ensemble Methods in Data Mining Improving Accuracy Through Combining Predictions
Seni, Giovanni
2010-01-01
This book is aimed at novice and advanced analytic researchers and practitioners -- especially in Engineering, Statistics, and Computer Science. Those with little exposure to ensembles will learn why and how to employ this breakthrough method, and advanced practitioners will gain insight into building even more powerful models. Throughout, snippets of code in R are provided to illustrate the algorithms described and to encourage the reader to try the techniques. The authors are industry experts in data mining and machine learning who are also adjunct professors and popular speakers. Although e
Contributions to Ensemble Classifiers with Image Analysis Applications
Ayerdi Vilches, Borja
2015-01-01
134 p. Ésta tesis tiene dos aspectos fundamentales, por un lado, la propuesta denuevas arquitecturas de clasificadores y, por otro, su aplicación a el análisis deimagen.Desde el punto de vista de proponer nuevas arquitecturas de clasificaciónla tesis tiene dos contribucciones principales. En primer lugar la propuestade un innovador ensemble de clasificadores basado en arquitecturas aleatorias,como pueden ser las Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), Random Forest (RF) yRotation Forest, llamado ...
Condensate fluctuations of interacting Bose gases within a microcanonical ensemble.
Wang, Jianhui; He, Jizhou; Ma, Yongli
2011-05-01
Based on counting statistics and Bogoliubov theory, we present a recurrence relation for the microcanonical partition function for a weakly interacting Bose gas with a finite number of particles in a cubic box. According to this microcanonical partition function, we calculate numerically the distribution function, condensate fraction, and condensate fluctuations for a finite and isolated Bose-Einstein condensate. For ideal and weakly interacting Bose gases, we compare the condensate fluctuations with those in the canonical ensemble. The present approach yields an accurate account of the condensate fluctuations for temperatures close to the critical region. We emphasize that the interactions between excited atoms turn out to be important for moderate temperatures.
Benchmarking ensemble streamflow prediction skill in the UK
Harrigan, Shaun; Prudhomme, Christel; Parry, Simon; Smith, Katie; Tanguy, Maliko
2018-03-01
Skilful hydrological forecasts at sub-seasonal to seasonal lead times would be extremely beneficial for decision-making in water resources management, hydropower operations, and agriculture, especially during drought conditions. Ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is a well-established method for generating an ensemble of streamflow forecasts in the absence of skilful future meteorological predictions, instead using initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs), such as soil moisture, groundwater, and snow, as the source of skill. We benchmark when and where the ESP method is skilful across a diverse sample of 314 catchments in the UK and explore the relationship between catchment storage and ESP skill. The GR4J hydrological model was forced with historic climate sequences to produce a 51-member ensemble of streamflow hindcasts. We evaluated forecast skill seamlessly from lead times of 1 day to 12 months initialized at the first of each month over a 50-year hindcast period from 1965 to 2015. Results showed ESP was skilful against a climatology benchmark forecast in the majority of catchments across all lead times up to a year ahead, but the degree of skill was strongly conditional on lead time, forecast initialization month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. UK-wide mean ESP skill decayed exponentially as a function of lead time with continuous ranked probability skill scores across the year of 0.75, 0.20, and 0.11 for 1-day, 1-month, and 3-month lead times, respectively. However, skill was not uniform across all initialization months. For lead times up to 1 month, ESP skill was higher than average when initialized in summer and lower in winter months, whereas for longer seasonal and annual lead times skill was higher when initialized in autumn and winter months and lowest in spring. ESP was most skilful in the south and east of the UK, where slower responding catchments with higher soil moisture and groundwater storage are mainly located
Optical Rabi Oscillations in a Quantum Dot Ensemble
Kujiraoka, Mamiko; Ishi-Hayase, Junko; Akahane, Kouichi; Yamamoto, Naokatsu; Ema, Kazuhiro; Sasaki, Masahide
2010-09-01
We have investigated Rabi oscillations of exciton polarization in a self-assembled InAs quantum dot ensemble. The four-wave mixing signals measured as a function of the average of the pulse area showed the large in-plane anisotropy and nonharmonic oscillations. The experimental results can be well reproduced by a two-level model calculation including three types of inhomogeneities without any fitting parameter. The large anisotropy can be well explained by the anisotropic dipole moments. We also find that the nonharmonic behaviors partly originate from the polarization interference.
S-AMP: Approximate Message Passing for General Matrix Ensembles
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Cakmak, Burak; Winther, Ole; Fleury, Bernard H.
2014-01-01
the approximate message-passing (AMP) algorithm to general matrix ensembles with a well-defined large system size limit. The generalization is based on the S-transform (in free probability) of the spectrum of the measurement matrix. Furthermore, we show that the optimality of S-AMP follows directly from its......We propose a novel iterative estimation algorithm for linear observation models called S-AMP. The fixed points of S-AMP are the stationary points of the exact Gibbs free energy under a set of (first- and second-) moment consistency constraints in the large system limit. S-AMP extends...
Towards deterministic optical quantum computation with coherently driven atomic ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Petrosyan, David
2005-01-01
Scalable and efficient quantum computation with photonic qubits requires (i) deterministic sources of single photons, (ii) giant nonlinearities capable of entangling pairs of photons, and (iii) reliable single-photon detectors. In addition, an optical quantum computer would need a robust reversible photon storage device. Here we discuss several related techniques, based on the coherent manipulation of atomic ensembles in the regime of electromagnetically induced transparency, that are capable of implementing all of the above prerequisites for deterministic optical quantum computation with single photons
M-Learning & e-inclusion. Il progetto ENSEMBLE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maria Ranieri
2013-03-01
Full Text Available Nel corso degli ultimi dieci anni, l’Unione europea ha più volte sottolineato, nelle sue raccomandazioni e documenti, il ruolo che le ICT possono svolgere per favorire le opportunità di partecipazione ed integrazione dei cittadini più svantaggiati. In questo contesto, il progetto ENSEMBLE, qui presentato, si è proposto di mettere a punto una strategia d’impiego delle tecnologie della comunicazione per promuovere l’integrazione socio-culturale dei cittadini immigrati, facendo leva sull’uso di tecnologie come il lettore MP3 e il telefono cellulare, e sperimentando metodologie didattiche e formati comunicativi adatti agli strumenti impiegati.
Light qubit storage and retrieval using macroscopic atomic ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sherson, J.; Soerensen, A. S.; Polzik, E. S.; Fiurasek, J.; Moelmer, K.
2006-01-01
We present an experimentally feasible protocol for the complete storage and retrieval of arbitrary light states in an atomic quantum memory using the Faraday interaction between light and matter. Our protocol relies on multiple passages of a single light pulse through the atomic ensemble without the impractical requirement of kilometer-long delay lines between the passages. A time-dependent interaction strength enables the storage and retrieval of states with arbitrary pulse shapes. The fidelity approaches unity exponentially without squeezed or entangled initial states, as illustrated by calculations for a photonic qubit
Bayesian ensemble approach to error estimation of interatomic potentials
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Frederiksen, Søren Lund; Jacobsen, Karsten Wedel; Brown, K.S.
2004-01-01
Using a Bayesian approach a general method is developed to assess error bars on predictions made by models fitted to data. The error bars are estimated from fluctuations in ensembles of models sampling the model-parameter space with a probability density set by the minimum cost. The method...... is applied to the development of interatomic potentials for molybdenum using various potential forms and databases based on atomic forces. The calculated error bars on elastic constants, gamma-surface energies, structural energies, and dislocation properties are shown to provide realistic estimates...
Fitting a function to time-dependent ensemble averaged data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fogelmark, Karl; Lomholt, Michael A.; Irbäck, Anders
2018-01-01
Time-dependent ensemble averages, i.e., trajectory-based averages of some observable, are of importance in many fields of science. A crucial objective when interpreting such data is to fit these averages (for instance, squared displacements) with a function and extract parameters (such as diffusion...... method, weighted least squares including correlation in error estimation (WLS-ICE), to particle tracking data. The WLS-ICE method is applicable to arbitrary fit functions, and we provide a publically available WLS-ICE software....
Decoding ensemble activity from neurophysiological recordings in the temporal cortex.
Kreiman, Gabriel
2011-01-01
We study subjects with pharmacologically intractable epilepsy who undergo semi-chronic implantation of electrodes for clinical purposes. We record physiological activity from tens to more than one hundred electrodes implanted in different parts of neocortex. These recordings provide higher spatial and temporal resolution than non-invasive measures of human brain activity. Here we discuss our efforts to develop hardware and algorithms to interact with the human brain by decoding ensemble activity in single trials. We focus our discussion on decoding visual information during a variety of visual object recognition tasks but the same technologies and algorithms can also be directly applied to other cognitive phenomena.
Ensemble learned vaccination uptake prediction using web search queries
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Niels Dalum; Lioma, Christina; Mølbak, Kåre
2016-01-01
We present a method that uses ensemble learning to combine clinical and web-mined time-series data in order to predict future vaccination uptake. The clinical data is official vaccination registries, and the web data is query frequencies collected from Google Trends. Experiments with official...... vaccine records show that our method predicts vaccination uptake eff?ectively (4.7 Root Mean Squared Error). Whereas performance is best when combining clinical and web data, using solely web data yields comparative performance. To our knowledge, this is the ?first study to predict vaccination uptake...
Pauci ex tanto numero: reducing redundancy in multi-model ensembles
Solazzo, E.; Riccio, A.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Galmarini, S.
2013-02-01
We explicitly address the fundamental issue of member diversity in multi-model ensembles. To date no attempts in this direction are documented within the air quality (AQ) community, although the extensive use of ensembles in this field. Common biases and redundancy are the two issues directly deriving from lack of independence, undermining the significance of a multi-model ensemble, and are the subject of this study. Shared biases among models will determine a biased ensemble, making therefore essential the errors of the ensemble members to be independent so that bias can cancel out. Redundancy derives from having too large a portion of common variance among the members of the ensemble, producing overconfidence in the predictions and underestimation of the uncertainty. The two issues of common biases and redundancy are analysed in detail using the AQMEII ensemble of AQ model results for four air pollutants in two European regions. We show that models share large portions of bias and variance, extending well beyond those induced by common inputs. We make use of several techniques to further show that subsets of models can explain the same amount of variance as the full ensemble with the advantage of being poorly correlated. Selecting the members for generating skilful, non-redundant ensembles from such subsets proved, however, non-trivial. We propose and discuss various methods of member selection and rate the ensemble performance they produce. In most cases, the full ensemble is outscored by the reduced ones. We conclude that, although independence of outputs may not always guarantee enhancement of scores (but this depends upon the skill being investigated) we discourage selecting the members of the ensemble simply on the basis of scores, that is, independence and skills need to be considered disjointly.
Exploring diversity in ensemble classification: Applications in large area land cover mapping
Mellor, Andrew; Boukir, Samia
2017-07-01
Ensemble classifiers, such as random forests, are now commonly applied in the field of remote sensing, and have been shown to perform better than single classifier systems, resulting in reduced generalisation error. Diversity across the members of ensemble classifiers is known to have a strong influence on classification performance - whereby classifier errors are uncorrelated and more uniformly distributed across ensemble members. The relationship between ensemble diversity and classification performance has not yet been fully explored in the fields of information science and machine learning and has never been examined in the field of remote sensing. This study is a novel exploration of ensemble diversity and its link to classification performance, applied to a multi-class canopy cover classification problem using random forests and multisource remote sensing and ancillary GIS data, across seven million hectares of diverse dry-sclerophyll dominated public forests in Victoria Australia. A particular emphasis is placed on analysing the relationship between ensemble diversity and ensemble margin - two key concepts in ensemble learning. The main novelty of our work is on boosting diversity by emphasizing the contribution of lower margin instances used in the learning process. Exploring the influence of tree pruning on diversity is also a new empirical analysis that contributes to a better understanding of ensemble performance. Results reveal insights into the trade-off between ensemble classification accuracy and diversity, and through the ensemble margin, demonstrate how inducing diversity by targeting lower margin training samples is a means of achieving better classifier performance for more difficult or rarer classes and reducing information redundancy in classification problems. Our findings inform strategies for collecting training data and designing and parameterising ensemble classifiers, such as random forests. This is particularly important in large area
Sub-Ensemble Coastal Flood Forecasting: A Case Study of Hurricane Sandy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Justin A. Schulte
2017-12-01
Full Text Available In this paper, it is proposed that coastal flood ensemble forecasts be partitioned into sub-ensemble forecasts using cluster analysis in order to produce representative statistics and to measure forecast uncertainty arising from the presence of clusters. After clustering the ensemble members, the ability to predict the cluster into which the observation will fall can be measured using a cluster skill score. Additional sub-ensemble and composite skill scores are proposed for assessing the forecast skill of a clustered ensemble forecast. A recently proposed method for statistically increasing the number of ensemble members is used to improve sub-ensemble probabilistic estimates. Through the application of the proposed methodology to Sandy coastal flood reforecasts, it is demonstrated that statistics computed using only ensemble members belonging to a specific cluster are more representative than those computed using all ensemble members simultaneously. A cluster skill-cluster uncertainty index relationship is identified, which is the cluster analog of the documented spread-skill relationship. Two sub-ensemble skill scores are shown to be positively correlated with cluster forecast skill, suggesting that skillfully forecasting the cluster into which the observation will fall is important to overall forecast skill. The identified relationships also suggest that the number of ensemble members within in each cluster can be used as guidance for assessing the potential for forecast error. The inevitable existence of ensemble member clusters in tidally dominated total water level prediction systems suggests that clustering is a necessary post-processing step for producing representative and skillful total water level forecasts.
A New Method for Determining Structure Ensemble: Application to a RNA Binding Di-Domain Protein.
Liu, Wei; Zhang, Jingfeng; Fan, Jing-Song; Tria, Giancarlo; Grüber, Gerhard; Yang, Daiwen
2016-05-10
Structure ensemble determination is the basis of understanding the structure-function relationship of a multidomain protein with weak domain-domain interactions. Paramagnetic relaxation enhancement has been proven a powerful tool in the study of structure ensembles, but there exist a number of challenges such as spin-label flexibility, domain dynamics, and overfitting. Here we propose a new (to our knowledge) method to describe structure ensembles using a minimal number of conformers. In this method, individual domains are considered rigid; the position of each spin-label conformer and the structure of each protein conformer are defined by three and six orthogonal parameters, respectively. First, the spin-label ensemble is determined by optimizing the positions and populations of spin-label conformers against intradomain paramagnetic relaxation enhancements with a genetic algorithm. Subsequently, the protein structure ensemble is optimized using a more efficient genetic algorithm-based approach and an overfitting indicator, both of which were established in this work. The method was validated using a reference ensemble with a set of conformers whose populations and structures are known. This method was also applied to study the structure ensemble of the tandem di-domain of a poly (U) binding protein. The determined ensemble was supported by small-angle x-ray scattering and nuclear magnetic resonance relaxation data. The ensemble obtained suggests an induced fit mechanism for recognition of target RNA by the protein. Copyright © 2016 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
An Adaptive Approach to Mitigate Background Covariance Limitations in the Ensemble Kalman Filter
Song, Hajoon
2010-07-01
A new approach is proposed to address the background covariance limitations arising from undersampled ensembles and unaccounted model errors in the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The method enhances the representativeness of the EnKF ensemble by augmenting it with new members chosen adaptively to add missing information that prevents the EnKF from fully fitting the data to the ensemble. The vectors to be added are obtained by back projecting the residuals of the observation misfits from the EnKF analysis step onto the state space. The back projection is done using an optimal interpolation (OI) scheme based on an estimated covariance of the subspace missing from the ensemble. In the experiments reported here, the OI uses a preselected stationary background covariance matrix, as in the hybrid EnKF–three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) approach, but the resulting correction is included as a new ensemble member instead of being added to all existing ensemble members. The adaptive approach is tested with the Lorenz-96 model. The hybrid EnKF–3DVAR is used as a benchmark to evaluate the performance of the adaptive approach. Assimilation experiments suggest that the new adaptive scheme significantly improves the EnKF behavior when it suffers from small size ensembles and neglected model errors. It was further found to be competitive with the hybrid EnKF–3DVAR approach, depending on ensemble size and data coverage.
A note on the multi model super ensemble technique for reducing forecast errors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kantha, L.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.
2008-01-01
The multi model super ensemble (S E) technique has been used with considerable success to improve meteorological forecasts and is now being applied to ocean models. Although the technique has been shown to produce deterministic forecasts that can be superior to the individual models in the ensemble or a simple multi model ensemble forecast, there is a clear need to understand its strengths and limitations. This paper is an attempt to do so in simple, easily understood contexts. The results demonstrate that the S E forecast is almost always better than the simple ensemble forecast, the degree of improvement depending on the properties of the models in the ensemble. However, the skill of the S E forecast with respect to the true forecast depends on a number of factors, principal among which is the skill of the models in the ensemble. As can be expected, if the ensemble consists of models with poor skill, the S E forecast will also be poor, although better than the ensemble forecast. On the other hand, the inclusion of even a single skillful model in the ensemble increases the forecast skill significantly.
A novel hybrid ensemble learning paradigm for nuclear energy consumption forecasting
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tang, Ling; Yu, Lean; Wang, Shuai; Li, Jianping; Wang, Shouyang
2012-01-01
Highlights: ► A hybrid ensemble learning paradigm integrating EEMD and LSSVR is proposed. ► The hybrid ensemble method is useful to predict time series with high volatility. ► The ensemble method can be used for both one-step and multi-step ahead forecasting. - Abstract: In this paper, a novel hybrid ensemble learning paradigm integrating ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) is proposed for nuclear energy consumption forecasting, based on the principle of “decomposition and ensemble”. This hybrid ensemble learning paradigm is formulated specifically to address difficulties in modeling nuclear energy consumption, which has inherently high volatility, complexity and irregularity. In the proposed hybrid ensemble learning paradigm, EEMD, as a competitive decomposition method, is first applied to decompose original data of nuclear energy consumption (i.e. a difficult task) into a number of independent intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) of original data (i.e. some relatively easy subtasks). Then LSSVR, as a powerful forecasting tool, is implemented to predict all extracted IMFs independently. Finally, these predicted IMFs are aggregated into an ensemble result as final prediction, using another LSSVR. For illustration and verification purposes, the proposed learning paradigm is used to predict nuclear energy consumption in China. Empirical results demonstrate that the novel hybrid ensemble learning paradigm can outperform some other popular forecasting models in both level prediction and directional forecasting, indicating that it is a promising tool to predict complex time series with high volatility and irregularity.
Fillion, Anthony; Bocquet, Marc; Gratton, Serge
2018-04-01
The analysis in nonlinear variational data assimilation is the solution of a non-quadratic minimization. Thus, the analysis efficiency relies on its ability to locate a global minimum of the cost function. If this minimization uses a Gauss-Newton (GN) method, it is critical for the starting point to be in the attraction basin of a global minimum. Otherwise the method may converge to a local extremum, which degrades the analysis. With chaotic models, the number of local extrema often increases with the temporal extent of the data assimilation window, making the former condition harder to satisfy. This is unfortunate because the assimilation performance also increases with this temporal extent. However, a quasi-static (QS) minimization may overcome these local extrema. It accomplishes this by gradually injecting the observations in the cost function. This method was introduced by Pires et al. (1996) in a 4D-Var context. We generalize this approach to four-dimensional strong-constraint nonlinear ensemble variational (EnVar) methods, which are based on both a nonlinear variational analysis and the propagation of dynamical error statistics via an ensemble. This forces one to consider the cost function minimizations in the broader context of cycled data assimilation algorithms. We adapt this QS approach to the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS), an exemplar of nonlinear deterministic four-dimensional EnVar methods. Using low-order models, we quantify the positive impact of the QS approach on the IEnKS, especially for long data assimilation windows. We also examine the computational cost of QS implementations and suggest cheaper algorithms.
Ovis: A framework for visual analysis of ocean forecast ensembles
Hollt, Thomas; Magdy, Ahmed; Zhan, Peng; Chen, Guoning; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Hansen, Charles D.; Hadwiger, Markus
2014-01-01
We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations of the sea surface height that is used in ocean forecasting. The position of eddies can be derived directly from the sea surface height and our visualization approach enables their interactive exploration and analysis.The behavior of eddies is important in different application settings of which we present two in this paper. First, we show an application for interactive planning of placement as well as operation of off-shore structures using real-world ensemble simulation data of the Gulf of Mexico. Off-shore structures, such as those used for oil exploration, are vulnerable to hazards caused by eddies, and the oil and gas industry relies on ocean forecasts for efficient operations. We enable analysis of the spatial domain, as well as the temporal evolution, for planning the placement and operation of structures.Eddies are also important for marine life. They transport water over large distances and with it also heat and other physical properties as well as biological organisms. In the second application we present the usefulness of our tool, which could be used for planning the paths of autonomous underwater vehicles, so called gliders, for marine scientists to study simulation data of the largely unexplored Red Sea. © 1995-2012 IEEE.
Towards constraining extreme temperature projections of the CMIP5 ensemble
Vogel, Martha-Marie; Orth, René; Isabelle Seneviratne, Sonia
2016-04-01
The frequency and intensity of heat waves is expected to change in future in response to global warming. Given the severe impacts of heat waves on ecosystems and society it is important to understand how and where they will intensify. Projections of extreme hot temperatures in the IPCC AR5 model ensemble show large uncertainties for projected changes of extreme temperatures in particular in Central Europe. In this region land-atmosphere coupling can contribute substantially to the development of heat waves. This coupling is also subject to change in future, while model projections display considerable spread. In this work we link projections of changes in extreme temperatures and of changes in land-atmosphere interactions with a particular focus on Central Europe. Uncertainties in projected extreme temperatures can be partly explained by different projected changes of the interplay between latent heat and temperature as well as soil moisture. Given the considerable uncertainty in land-atmosphere coupling representation already in the current climate, we furthermore employ observational data sets to constrain the model ensemble, and consequently the extreme temperature projections.
Ensemble candidate classification for the LOTAAS pulsar survey
Tan, C. M.; Lyon, R. J.; Stappers, B. W.; Cooper, S.; Hessels, J. W. T.; Kondratiev, V. I.; Michilli, D.; Sanidas, S.
2018-03-01
One of the biggest challenges arising from modern large-scale pulsar surveys is the number of candidates generated. Here, we implemented several improvements to the machine learning (ML) classifier previously used by the LOFAR Tied-Array All-Sky Survey (LOTAAS) to look for new pulsars via filtering the candidates obtained during periodicity searches. To assist the ML algorithm, we have introduced new features which capture the frequency and time evolution of the signal and improved the signal-to-noise calculation accounting for broad profiles. We enhanced the ML classifier by including a third class characterizing RFI instances, allowing candidates arising from RFI to be isolated, reducing the false positive return rate. We also introduced a new training data set used by the ML algorithm that includes a large sample of pulsars misclassified by the previous classifier. Lastly, we developed an ensemble classifier comprised of five different Decision Trees. Taken together these updates improve the pulsar recall rate by 2.5 per cent, while also improving the ability to identify pulsars with wide pulse profiles, often misclassified by the previous classifier. The new ensemble classifier is also able to reduce the percentage of false positive candidates identified from each LOTAAS pointing from 2.5 per cent (˜500 candidates) to 1.1 per cent (˜220 candidates).
Class-specific Error Bounds for Ensemble Classifiers
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Prenger, R; Lemmond, T; Varshney, K; Chen, B; Hanley, W
2009-10-06
The generalization error, or probability of misclassification, of ensemble classifiers has been shown to be bounded above by a function of the mean correlation between the constituent (i.e., base) classifiers and their average strength. This bound suggests that increasing the strength and/or decreasing the correlation of an ensemble's base classifiers may yield improved performance under the assumption of equal error costs. However, this and other existing bounds do not directly address application spaces in which error costs are inherently unequal. For applications involving binary classification, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, performance curves that explicitly trade off false alarms and missed detections, are often utilized to support decision making. To address performance optimization in this context, we have developed a lower bound for the entire ROC curve that can be expressed in terms of the class-specific strength and correlation of the base classifiers. We present empirical analyses demonstrating the efficacy of these bounds in predicting relative classifier performance. In addition, we specify performance regions of the ROC curve that are naturally delineated by the class-specific strengths of the base classifiers and show that each of these regions can be associated with a unique set of guidelines for performance optimization of binary classifiers within unequal error cost regimes.
The complex Laguerre symplectic ensemble of non-Hermitian matrices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Akemann, G.
2005-01-01
We solve the complex extension of the chiral Gaussian symplectic ensemble, defined as a Gaussian two-matrix model of chiral non-Hermitian quaternion real matrices. This leads to the appearance of Laguerre polynomials in the complex plane and we prove their orthogonality. Alternatively, a complex eigenvalue representation of this ensemble is given for general weight functions. All k-point correlation functions of complex eigenvalues are given in terms of the corresponding skew orthogonal polynomials in the complex plane for finite-N, where N is the matrix size or number of eigenvalues, respectively. We also allow for an arbitrary number of complex conjugate pairs of characteristic polynomials in the weight function, corresponding to massive quark flavours in applications to field theory. Explicit expressions are given in the large-N limit at both weak and strong non-Hermiticity for the weight of the Gaussian two-matrix model. This model can be mapped to the complex Dirac operator spectrum with non-vanishing chemical potential. It belongs to the symmetry class of either the adjoint representation or two colours in the fundamental representation using staggered lattice fermions
Force estimation from ensembles of Golgi tendon organs
Mileusnic, M. P.; Loeb, G. E.
2009-06-01
Golgi tendon organs (GTOs) located in the skeletal muscles provide the central nervous system with information about muscle tension. The ensemble firing of all GTO receptors in the muscle has been hypothesized to represent a reliable measure of the whole muscle force but the precision and accuracy of that information are largely unknown because it is impossible to record activity simultaneously from all GTOs in a muscle. In this study, we combined a new mathematical model of force sampling and transduction in individual GTOs with various models of motor unit (MU) organization and recruitment simulating various normal, pathological and neural prosthetic conditions. Our study suggests that in the intact muscle the ensemble GTO activity accurately encodes force information according to a nonlinear, monotonic relationship that has its steepest slope for low force levels and tends to saturate at the highest force levels. The relationship between the aggregate GTO activity and whole muscle tension under some pathological conditions is similar to one seen in the intact muscle during rapidly modulated, phasic excitation of the motor pool (typical for many natural movements) but quite different when the muscle is activated slowly or held at a given force level. Substantial deviations were also observed during simulated functional electrical stimulation.
Medium Range Ensembles Flood Forecasts for Community Level Applications
Fakhruddin, S.; Kawasaki, A.; Babel, M. S.; AIT
2013-05-01
Early warning is a key element for disaster risk reduction. In recent decades, there has been a major advancement in medium range and seasonal forecasting. These could provide a great opportunity to improve early warning systems and advisories for early action for strategic and long term planning. This could result in increasing emphasis on proactive rather than reactive management of adverse consequences of flood events. This can be also very helpful for the agricultural sector by providing a diversity of options to farmers (e.g. changing cropping pattern, planting timing, etc.). An experimental medium range (1-10 days) flood forecasting model has been developed for Bangladesh which provides 51 set of discharge ensembles forecasts of one to ten days with significant persistence and high certainty. This could help communities (i.e. farmer) for gain/lost estimation as well as crop savings. This paper describe the application of ensembles probabilistic flood forecast at the community level for differential decision making focused on agriculture. The framework allows users to interactively specify the objectives and criteria that are germane to a particular situation, and obtain the management options that are possible, and the exogenous influences that should be taken into account before planning and decision making. risk and vulnerability assessment was conducted through community consultation. The forecast lead time requirement, users' needs, impact and management options for crops, livestock and fisheries sectors were identified through focus group discussions, informal interviews and questionnaire survey.
Bayesian energy landscape tilting: towards concordant models of molecular ensembles.
Beauchamp, Kyle A; Pande, Vijay S; Das, Rhiju
2014-03-18
Predicting biological structure has remained challenging for systems such as disordered proteins that take on myriad conformations. Hybrid simulation/experiment strategies have been undermined by difficulties in evaluating errors from computational model inaccuracies and data uncertainties. Building on recent proposals from maximum entropy theory and nonequilibrium thermodynamics, we address these issues through a Bayesian energy landscape tilting (BELT) scheme for computing Bayesian hyperensembles over conformational ensembles. BELT uses Markov chain Monte Carlo to directly sample maximum-entropy conformational ensembles consistent with a set of input experimental observables. To test this framework, we apply BELT to model trialanine, starting from disagreeing simulations with the force fields ff96, ff99, ff99sbnmr-ildn, CHARMM27, and OPLS-AA. BELT incorporation of limited chemical shift and (3)J measurements gives convergent values of the peptide's α, β, and PPII conformational populations in all cases. As a test of predictive power, all five BELT hyperensembles recover set-aside measurements not used in the fitting and report accurate errors, even when starting from highly inaccurate simulations. BELT's principled framework thus enables practical predictions for complex biomolecular systems from discordant simulations and sparse data. Copyright © 2014 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
The hippocampal CA2 ensemble is sensitive to contextual change.
Wintzer, Marie E; Boehringer, Roman; Polygalov, Denis; McHugh, Thomas J
2014-02-19
Contextual learning involves associating cues with an environment and relating them to past experience. Previous data indicate functional specialization within the hippocampal circuit: the dentate gyrus (DG) is crucial for discriminating similar contexts, whereas CA3 is required for associative encoding and recall. Here, we used Arc/H1a catFISH imaging to address the contribution of the largely overlooked CA2 region to contextual learning by comparing ensemble codes across CA3, CA2, and CA1 in mice exposed to familiar, altered, and novel contexts. Further, to manipulate the quality of information arriving in CA2 we used two hippocampal mutant mouse lines, CA3-NR1 KOs and DG-NR1 KOs, that result in hippocampal CA3 neuronal activity that is uncoupled from the animal's sensory environment. Our data reveal largely coherent responses across the CA axis in control mice in purely novel or familiar contexts; however, in the mutant mice subject to these protocols the CA2 response becomes uncoupled from CA1 and CA3. Moreover, we show in wild-type mice that the CA2 ensemble is more sensitive than CA1 and CA3 to small changes in overall context. Our data suggest that CA2 may be tuned to remap in response to any conflict between stored and current experience.
Ensemble Artifact Design For Context Sensitive Decision Support
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shah J Miah
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Although an improvement of design knowledge is an essential goal of design research, current design research predominantly focuses on knowledge concerning the IT artifact (tool design process, rather than a more holistic understanding encompassing the dynamic usage contexts of a technological artifact. Conceptualising a design in context as an “ensemble artifact” (Sein et al., 2011 provides the basis for a more rigorous treatment. This paper describes an IS artifact design framework that has been generated from the development of several practitioner-oriented decision support systems (DSS in which contextual aspects relevant to practitioners’ decision making are considered as integral design themes. We describe five key dimensions of an ensemble artifact design and show their value in designing practitioner-oriented DSS. The features are user centredness, knowledge sharing, situation-specific customisation, reduced model orientation, and practice based secondary design abilities. It is argued that this understanding can contribute to design research knowledge more effectively both to develop dynamic DSS, and by its extensibility to other artifact designs.
Reducing storage of global wind ensembles with stochastic generators
Jeong, Jaehong
2018-03-09
Wind has the potential to make a significant contribution to future energy resources. Locating the sources of this renewable energy on a global scale is however extremely challenging, given the difficulty to store very large data sets generated by modern computer models. We propose a statistical model that aims at reproducing the data-generating mechanism of an ensemble of runs via a Stochastic Generator (SG) of global annual wind data. We introduce an evolutionary spectrum approach with spatially varying parameters based on large-scale geographical descriptors such as altitude to better account for different regimes across the Earth’s orography. We consider a multi-step conditional likelihood approach to estimate the parameters that explicitly accounts for nonstationary features while also balancing memory storage and distributed computation. We apply the proposed model to more than 18 million points of yearly global wind speed. The proposed SG requires orders of magnitude less storage for generating surrogate ensemble members from wind than does creating additional wind fields from the climate model, even if an effective lossy data compression algorithm is applied to the simulation output.
Singular vectors, predictability and ensemble forecasting for weather and climate
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Palmer, T N; Zanna, Laure
2013-01-01
The local instabilities of a nonlinear dynamical system can be characterized by the leading singular vectors of its linearized operator. The leading singular vectors are perturbations with the greatest linear growth and are therefore key in assessing the system’s predictability. In this paper, the analysis of singular vectors for the predictability of weather and climate and ensemble forecasting is discussed. An overview of the role of singular vectors in informing about the error growth rate in numerical models of the atmosphere is given. This is followed by their use in the initialization of ensemble weather forecasts. Singular vectors for the ocean and coupled ocean–atmosphere system in order to understand the predictability of climate phenomena such as ENSO and meridional overturning circulation are reviewed and their potential use to initialize seasonal and decadal forecasts is considered. As stochastic parameterizations are being implemented, some speculations are made about the future of singular vectors for the predictability of weather and climate for theoretical applications and at the operational level. This article is part of a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical devoted to ‘Lyapunov analysis: from dynamical systems theory to applications’. (review)
Decision tree ensembles for online operation of large smart grids
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Steer, Kent C.B.; Wirth, Andrew; Halgamuge, Saman K.
2012-01-01
Highlights: ► We present a new technique for the online control of large smart grids. ► We use a Decision Tree Ensemble in a Receding Horizon Controller. ► Decision Trees can approximate online optimisation approaches. ► Decision Trees can make adjustments to their output in real time. ► The new technique outperforms heuristic online optimisation approaches. - Abstract: Smart grids utilise omnidirectional data transfer to operate a network of energy resources. Associated technologies present operators with greater control over system elements and more detailed information on the system state. While these features may improve the theoretical optimal operating performance, determining the optimal operating strategy becomes more difficult. In this paper, we show how a decision tree ensemble or ‘forest’ can produce a near-optimal control strategy in real time. The approach substitutes the decision forest for the simulation–optimisation sub-routine commonly employed in receding horizon controllers. The method is demonstrated on a small and a large network, and compared to controllers employing particle swarm optimisation and evolutionary strategies. For the smaller network the proposed method performs comparably in terms of total energy usage, but delivers a greater demand deficit. On the larger network the proposed method is superior with respect to all measures. We conclude that the method is useful when the time required to evaluate possible strategies via simulation is high.
Characterization of the critical submanifolds in quantum ensemble control landscapes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wu Rebing; Rabitz, Herschel; Hsieh, Michael
2008-01-01
The quantum control landscape is defined as the functional that maps the control variables to the expectation values of an observable over the ensemble of quantum systems. Analyzing the topology of such landscapes is important for understanding the origins of the increasing number of laboratory successes in the optimal control of quantum processes. This paper proposes a simple scheme to compute the characteristics of the critical topology of the quantum ensemble control landscapes showing that the set of disjoint critical submanifolds one-to-one corresponds to a finite number of contingency tables that solely depend on the degeneracy structure of the eigenvalues of the initial system density matrix and the observable whose expectation value is to be maximized. The landscape characteristics can be calculated as functions of the table entries, including the dimensions and the numbers of positive and negative eigenvalues of the Hessian quadratic form of each of the connected components of the critical submanifolds. Typical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of this method
Ensemble Prediction Model with Expert Selection for Electricity Price Forecasting
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bijay Neupane
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all of the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards the aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participates in forecasting 1-h ahead the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, the Fixed Weight Method (FWM and the Varying Weight Method (VWM, for selecting each hour’s expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features extracted from the past electricity price data, weather data and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA method, the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF method and our previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN alone on the datasets for New York, Australian and Spanish electricity markets.