A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

1992-01-01

The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

The climatic scenario of global warming; Les scenarios climatiques de rechauffement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deque, M

2007-07-01

This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

Comparison of different scenarios for the deployment of fast reactors in France. Results obtained with COSI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coquelet-Pascal, Christine; Meyer, Maryan; Girieud, Richard

2011-01-01

In the frame of the French Act for waste management, scenarios studies are carried out with the simulation software COSI to compare different options of evolution of the French reactor fleet, possibilities of plutonium recycling, and options of separation and transmutation of minor actinides. The goal of these studies is to evaluate the sustainability of Sodium cooled Fast Reactors (SFR) deployment from plutonium availability viewpoint, as well as the interest of minor actinides transmutation options in SFR and associated impacts (decay heat and toxicity) on cycle facilities and geological storage. Each option has been evaluated separately in dynamic scenarios taking into account the transition between the current nuclear reactor fleet and a generation IV fleet, with the deployment of SFR in replacement of PWR. In this paper, the results of three types of scenarios, in the continuity of the paper of GLOBAL 2009, are discussed: 1 - plutonium recycling in SFR; 2 - plutonium recycling and minor actinides transmutation in SFR; 3 - plutonium recycling and americium transmutation in SFR. MA transmutation in heterogeneous mode (named 'het.') and in homogeneous mode (named 'hom.') are distinguished. By comparison with the previous paper, new scenarios and extended results are added and a global comparison between transmutation performances is done. Scenarios have been optimized to minimize the impacts on fuel cycle: stabilization of plants capacities over 40 years, limitation of minor actinides storage in the case of heterogeneous transmutation, limitation of MA content in the case of homogeneous transmutation. The impact of MA transmutation on decay heat of fresh and spent fuel are also assessed. The selected scenarios bring also elements on the impact of a SFR deployment delayed from 2040 to 2080, with or without MA transmutation, and the impact of an increase in the total power capacity installed by maximizing the SFR share in a symbiotic fleet PWR-SFR. Whatever the

A comparison of the newest scenarios for energy supply in Switzerland and their results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schucan, T.H.

1984-09-01

The author defines an energy scenario and considers several such scenarios for Switzerland. A presentation of perspectives is given, followed by an analysis of the scenario. Remarks are made on the energy economy and on the environmental loading (specific emissions for heat pumps and block heat power stations, total emission for the year 2020 and radiation loading for people and plants in Switzerland). (A.N.K.)

Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land

Science.gov (United States)

Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoit P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

2018-03-01

The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

The land-use projections and resulting emissions in the IPCC SRES scenarios as simulated by the IMAGE 2.2 model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strengers, B.; Eickhout, B.; De Vries, B.; Bouwman, L.; Leemans, R.

2005-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed a new series of emission scenarios (SRES). Six global models were used to develop SRES but most focused primarily on energy and industry related emissions. Land-use emissions were only covered by three models, where IMAGE included the most detailed, spatially explicit description of global land-use and land-cover dynamics. To complement their calculations the other models used land-use emission from AIM and IMAGE, leading to inconsistent estimates. Representation of the land-use emissions in SRES is therefore poor. This paper presents details on the IMAGE 2.1 land-use results to complement the SRES report. The IMAGE SRES scenarios are based on the original IPCC SRES assumptions and narratives using the latest version of IMAGE (IMAGE 2.2). IMAGE provides comprehensive emission estimates because not only emissions are addressed but also the resulting atmospheric concentrations, climate change and impacts. Additionally, in SRES the scenario assumptions were only presented and quantified for 4 'macro-regions'. The IMAGE 2.2 SRES implementation has been extended towards 17 regions. We focus on land-use aspects and show that land-related emissions not only depend on population projections but also on the temporal and spatial dynamics of different land-related sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. We also illustrate the importance of systemic feed backs and interactions in the climate system that influence land-use emissions, such as deforestation and forest regrowth, soil respiration and CO2-fertilisation

Learning from global emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2008-01-01

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

Full steady state LH scenarios in Tore Supra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazarian-Vibert, F.; Litaudon, X.; Arslanbekov, R.; Hoang, G.T.; Moreau, D.; Peysson, Y.

1995-01-01

Lower Hybrid discharge have been realised in Tore Supra using feed-back control of the primary circuit voltage such that the loop voltage was maintained exactly to zero near the plasma surface. This new scenario allows the plasma current to float and quickly reach an equilibrium value determined by the current drive efficiency and Lower Hybrid power. Recent experimental results show that, with the new constant flux scenario the coupled plasma and primary currents reach a steady state in less than 10 s which is a good agreement with theoretical expectations. A complete analysis of this scenario is presented. (authors). 8 refs., 3 figs

Long-term scenarios of energy use and carbon emissions: Summary of results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sathaye, J.

1991-01-01

Energy use in developing countries has risen more quickly than in the industrialized world, with a consequent increase in the developing world's share in global modern energy use from 16% in 1970 to 24% in 1987. As a result, while the developing countries' share of carbon dioxide emissions is small today, it is growing rapidly. The following is a brief summary of the aggregate results derived from the work on long-term energy and carbon emissions scenarios for China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, Ghana, Sierra Leone and the sic members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The countries experience varying rates of population growth between 1985 and 2025. The fastest growth rates occur in Africa - particularly in Nigeria and Ghana - and in the GCC. In Korea and China, where the governments have implemented policies to control the expansion of the population, the growth rates remain significantly lower. The economic growth rates correspond with national projections and/or expert judgment. GDP shows a wide variance across the study countries; and in each country distinct factors account for the differences in rates of growth. Argentina, for example, experiences a relatively slow increase in GDP as the foundation of its economy moves away from manufacturing and towards agriculture-based industry. In contrast, Korea's development of its less energy-intensive industries continues to fuel high rates of economic growth between 1985 and 2025

Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2018-03-01

An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Contaldi, Mario

2005-01-01

This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L.

2009-10-01

The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO 2 . The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO 2 , the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-07-16

This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Economic study of fuel scenarios for a reload

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz S, J. J.; Castillo M, J. A.; Montes T, J. L.; Perusquia del C, R.

2014-10-01

In this work the results to plan different scenarios for designing a nuclear fuel reload are shown. Given a reload with specific energy requirements, the objective is to verify the feasibility of using either a greater number of fresh fuel with less uranium enrichment, or otherwise reduce the number of fresh fuel assemblies and therefore they have a higher average uranium enrichment. For the study a cycle balance 18-month basis with 112 fresh assemblies divided into two lots, with energy produced of 10,075 Mwd/Tu was used. For the designs under the mentioned scenarios, the heuristic techniques known as taboo search and neural networks were used. To verify the feasibility of obtained reloads an economic study of the reload costs was performed. The results showed that is possible to design reloads under the two scenarios, but was more complicated decrease the amount of fresh fuel assemblies. In both scenarios was possible to reduce manufacturing costs of fuel and according to purely static calculation, it would be possible to increase the energy produced. (Author)

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Water within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Constraints and the Impact on Future Global Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Davies, E. G.; Calvin, K. V.; Kim, S. H.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

2017-12-01

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) represent the next generation of future global change scenarios and their inclusion in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios reinforces the importance of a complete understanding of the SSPs. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the effects of limited water supplies on future withdrawals at regional and water basin scales across all SSPs in combination with various climate mitigation scenarios. Water supply is calculated using a global hydrologic model and water data from five ISI-MIP models across the four RCP scenarios. When water constraints are incorporated, our results show that water withdrawals are reduced by as much as 40% across all SSP scenarios without climate policies. As climate policies are imposed and become more stringent, water withdrawals increase in regions already affected by water stress in order to allow for greater biomass production. The results of this research show the importance of including water resource constraints within the SSP scenarios for establishing water withdrawal scenarios under a wide range of scenarios including different climate policies. The results will also provide data products - such as gridded land use and water demand estimates - of potential interest to the impact, adaptation, and vulnerability community following the SSP scenarios.

Scenarios of land cover in China

Science.gov (United States)

Yue, Tian Xiang; Fan, Ze Meng; Liu, Ji Yuan

2007-02-01

A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously.

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process

SO2 emission scenarios of eastern China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qi, L.; Hao, J.; Lu, M.

1995-01-01

Under the National Key Project in Eighth Five-year Plan, a study was carried out on forecasting SO 2 emission from coal combustion in China, with a special emphasis on the eastern area. 3 scenarios, i.e. 'Optimistic', 'Pessimistic' and 'Business as Usual' scenarios were developed trying to cover changing scale of coal consumption and SO 2 emission from 1990 to 2020. A 'Top-down' approach was employed, and coal consumption elasticity was defined to project future economic growth and coal consumption. SO 2 emission scenarios were outlined, based on coal consumption, estimated sulfur content level and prospective SO 2 control situation. Emission level for each 1 degree longitude x 1 degree latitude grid cell within eastern China was also estimated to show geographical distribution of SO 2 sources. The results show that SO 2 emission in China will increase rapidly, if the current situation for energy saving and SO 2 control is maintained without improvement; measures enhanced reasonably with economic growth could stop further increase of emission by 2010. Realization of more encouraging objective to keep emission at even below 1990 level needs, however, more stringent options. The share of eastern China in the country's total emission would increase until 2000, while the general changing tendency would principally follow the scenarios of the whole country. 4 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

Regional climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-01-01

Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

Process-based evaluation of the ÖKS15 Austrian climate scenarios: First results

Science.gov (United States)

Mendlik, Thomas; Truhetz, Heimo; Jury, Martin; Maraun, Douglas

2017-04-01

The climate scenarios for Austria from the ÖKS15 project consists of 13 downscaled and bias-corrected RCMs from the EURO-CORDEX project. This dataset is meant for the broad public and is now available at the central national archive for climate data (CCCA Data Center). Because of this huge public outreach it is absolutely necessary to objectively discuss the limitations of this dataset and to publish these limitations, which should also be understood by a non-scientific audience. Even though systematical climatological biases have been accounted for by the Scaled-Distribution-Mapping (SDM) bias-correction method, it is not guaranteed that the model biases have been removed for the right reasons. If climate scenarios do not get the patterns of synoptic variability right, biases will still prevail in certain weather patterns. Ultimately this will have consequences for the projected climate change signals. In this study we derive typical weather types in the Alpine Region based on patterns from mean sea level pressure from ERA-INTERIM data and check the occurrence of these synoptic phenomena in EURO-CORDEX data and their corresponding driving GCMs. Based on these weather patterns we analyze the remaining biases of the downscaled and bias-corrected scenarios. We argue that such a process-based evaluation is not only necessary from a scientific point of view, but can also help the broader public to understand the limitations of downscaled climate scenarios, as model errors can be interpreted in terms of everyday observable weather.

Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

2013-01-01

Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economics. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle (as a reference scenario), a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycles with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS).Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand. Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios respectively.

Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

2013-07-01

Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economics. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle (as a reference scenario), a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycles with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS).Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand. Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios respectively.

Using Multi-Scenario Tsunami Modelling Results combined with Probabilistic Analyses to provide Hazard Information for the South-WestCoast of Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Zosseder, K.; Post, J.; Steinmetz, T.; Wegscheider, S.; Strunz, G.

2009-04-01

the inundation for a specific area, the wave height at coast at this area and the estimated times of arrival (ETAs) of the waves, caused by one tsunamigenic source with a specific magnitude. These parameters from the several scenarios can overlap each other along the coast and must be combined to get one comprehensive hazard assessment for all possible future tsunamis at the region under observation. The simplest way to derive the inundation probability along the coast using the multiscenario approach is to overlay all scenario inundation results and to determine how often a point on land will be significantly inundated from the various scenarios. But this does not take into account that the used tsunamigenic sources for the modeled scenarios have different likelihoods of causing a tsunami. Hence a statistical analysis of historical data and geophysical investigation results based on numerical modelling results is added to the hazard assessment, which clearly improves the significance of the hazard assessment. For this purpose the present method is developed and contains a complex logical combination of the diverse probabilities assessed like probability of occurrence for different earthquake magnitudes at different localities, probability of occurrence for a specific wave height at the coast and the probability for every point on land likely to get hit by a tsunami. The values are combined by a logical tree technique and quantified by statistical analysis of historical data and of the tsunami modelling results as mentioned before. This results in a tsunami inundation probability map covering the South West Coast of Indonesia which nevertheless shows a significant spatial diversity offering a good base for evacuation planning and mitigation strategies. Keywords: tsunami hazard assessment, tsunami modelling, probabilistic analysis, early warning

Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

Science.gov (United States)

Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

2016-08-01

The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand

Multi-modal Virtual Scenario Enhances Neurofeedback Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Avihay Cohen

2016-08-01

produced a higher effect size. In addition, neurofeedback via the animated scenario showed better sustainability, as indicated by a no-feedback trial conducted in session 2 and better transferability to a new unfamiliar interface. Lastly, participants reported that the animated scenario was more engaging and more motivating than the thermometer. Together, these results demonstrate the promising potential of integrating realistic virtual environments in neurofeedback to enhance learning and improve user's experience.

Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

2014-10-01

We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification of agricultural activity and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3 and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasise that CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of decoupled land-use change scenarios: the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re

Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

2014-04-01

Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gracceva, Francesco

2005-01-01

Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-05-01

This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-15

from 1,313 PJ in 2010. Nevertheless, the energy intensity is expected to decrease gradually across the three scenarios, from 65MJ/$ in base year (2010) to 22, 20 and 13 MJ/$ in 2050 for BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively. Importantly, under Scenario 2, the energy intensity will decrease with an average annual rate of 3,9%. Certainly, Scenario 2 has the largest capability of energy savings. The per capita primary energy consumption in Scenario 2 is the highest (at annual rate of 4.1%) and followed by Scenario 1 (3.3%) over the period. With respect to energy intensity, energy diversity and per capita consumption, BAU scenario shows is the least preferred option with highest risks related to security and diversity of supply. In Scenario 2, the proportion of oil consumption will decrease to 7.4%, i.e., lower than the values of 17.72% and 11.5% for the BAU and Scenario 1, respectively. The demand for non-conventional renewables is expected to increase significantly in all three scenarios from around 1% in 2010, to 11% 23% and 36.6% for the BAU scenario, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively over the period of 2010-2050. Overall, under Scenario 2, the degree of diversification in the total energy requirement would increase and gradually will become environmentally friendly in Ethiopia, with rapid growth in the use of alternative clean energy. The absolute CO{sub 2} emissions under the three scenarios from 2010 to 2050 will slightly increase due to the stronger economic development, which still stay within the limits of an ambitious climate change mitigation policy. Nevertheless, Scenario 2 has the lowest CO{sub 2} emission intensity, followed by the Scenario 1 and BAU scenarios. By 2050 the CO{sub 2} emissions intensities of BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 will reach 0.1, 0.08 and 0.05 kg CO{sub 2} per US$ of GDP, respectively. Overall, the results of analysis demonstrate that the alternative scenarios (Scenario 1 and Scenario 2) would result in a sustainable energy

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-01

1,313 PJ in 2010. Nevertheless, the energy intensity is expected to decrease gradually across the three scenarios, from 65MJ/$ in base year (2010) to 22, 20 and 13 MJ/$ in 2050 for BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively. Importantly, under Scenario 2, the energy intensity will decrease with an average annual rate of 3,9%. Certainly, Scenario 2 has the largest capability of energy savings. The per capita primary energy consumption in Scenario 2 is the highest (at annual rate of 4.1%) and followed by Scenario 1 (3.3%) over the period. With respect to energy intensity, energy diversity and per capita consumption, BAU scenario shows is the least preferred option with highest risks related to security and diversity of supply. In Scenario 2, the proportion of oil consumption will decrease to 7.4%, i.e., lower than the values of 17.72% and 11.5% for the BAU and Scenario 1, respectively. The demand for non-conventional renewables is expected to increase significantly in all three scenarios from around 1% in 2010, to 11% 23% and 36.6% for the BAU scenario, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively over the period of 2010-2050. Overall, under Scenario 2, the degree of diversification in the total energy requirement would increase and gradually will become environmentally friendly in Ethiopia, with rapid growth in the use of alternative clean energy. The absolute CO 2 emissions under the three scenarios from 2010 to 2050 will slightly increase due to the stronger economic development, which still stay within the limits of an ambitious climate change mitigation policy. Nevertheless, Scenario 2 has the lowest CO 2 emission intensity, followed by the Scenario 1 and BAU scenarios. By 2050 the CO 2 emissions intensities of BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 will reach 0.1, 0.08 and 0.05 kg CO 2 per US$ of GDP, respectively. Overall, the results of analysis demonstrate that the alternative scenarios (Scenario 1 and Scenario 2) would result in a sustainable energy transitions that

A Comparison of Active and Passive Virtual Reality Exposure Scenarios to Elicit Social Anxiety

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoones A. Sekhavat

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Social phobia is an anxiety disorder that results in an excessive and unreasonable fear of social situations. As a safe and controlled tool, Virtual Reality Exposure Therapy (VRET has been used to treat anxiety disorders and phobias. This paper aims to study whether VRET with active scenarios can challenge a person more than passive scenarios. By comparing participants who were exposed to active and passive scenarios in VRET, we show that active scenarios are more effective than passive scenarios to elicit social anxiety in healthy participants. We focus on eliciting social anxiety and creating the sense of presence as two parameters enhancing the efficacy of VRET scenarios.

Scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

User needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger Knutti, Jacqueline

2017-04-01

In the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS) new climate change scenarios for Switzerland are currently under development that will be released in 2018 ("CH2018 scenarios"). An important component herein is the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user tailored and hence find a wide applicability in different sectors in Switzerland. A comprehensive market research was conducted to get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need. The survey targeted the most climate relevant sectors, and involved representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users and two specific workshops gathering the needs in dissemination. Additionally, the survey results were consolidated at a national symposium with around 150 participants from research, administration and practice. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the users of climate scenarios according to their level of usage and according to the different sectors. It turns out that the less intensive the usage of the climate scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. According to the survey it is especially the non-experts that should be better addressed in the new cycle of national climate scenarios. In terms of content, the survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in the predecessor climate scenario suite CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy

Prediction of Transient Scenarios Using AI After Severe Accident Occurrence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Back, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun

2017-01-01

We predicted the core uncovery time, the time that core exist temperature (CET) exceeds 1200 .deg. F, reactor vessel (RV) failure time and containment failure time by using the cascaded support vector regression (SVR) model. The proposed algorithms were trained and verified using the simulation data of MAAP code for the optimized power rector (OPR1000). In this study, we predicted transient scenarios by CSVR. The MAAP code was used to describe the accident situation and the 13 measured signal data was acquired and used. The CSVR model was developed to find out the transient scenarios by using short timeintegrated signals after reactor trip. The results show that the CSVR models can predict the transient scenarios accurately.

International bioenergy trade. Scenario study on international biomass market in 2020

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heinimoe, J.; Pakarinen, V.; Ojanen, V.; Kaessi, T.

2007-07-01

The markets of biomass for energy are developing rapidly and becoming more international. A remarkable increase in the use of biomass for energy needs parallel and positive development in several areas, and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. The main objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020, and based on the scenario process, to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. Two scenario processes were conducted for this study. The first was carried out with a group of Finnish experts and the second involved an international group. A heuristic, semi structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes. The scenario processes reinforced the picture of the future of international biomass and bioenergy markets as a complex and multi layer subject. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The results of the scenario process also opened up new discussion and provided new information and collective views of experts for the purposes of policy makers. An overall view resulting from this scenario analysis are the enormous opportunities relating to the utilisation of biomass as a resource for global energy use in the coming decades. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of technological development to solve global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial

International bioenergy trade. Scenario study on international biomass market in 2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heinimoe, J.; Pakarinen, V.; Ojanen, V.; Kaessi, T.

2007-01-01

The markets of biomass for energy are developing rapidly and becoming more international. A remarkable increase in the use of biomass for energy needs parallel and positive development in several areas, and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. The main objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020, and based on the scenario process, to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. Two scenario processes were conducted for this study. The first was carried out with a group of Finnish experts and the second involved an international group. A heuristic, semi structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes. The scenario processes reinforced the picture of the future of international biomass and bioenergy markets as a complex and multi layer subject. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The results of the scenario process also opened up new discussion and provided new information and collective views of experts for the purposes of policy makers. An overall view resulting from this scenario analysis are the enormous opportunities relating to the utilisation of biomass as a resource for global energy use in the coming decades. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of technological development to solve global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial

Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

2011-07-15

There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

2016-04-01

There is a growing demand to assess and inform about future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems and to deduce appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are reliable and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). New climate model simulations, an improved scientific understanding and new statistical downscaling tools make an update of these scenarios necessary. An important component toward the new national scenarios "CH2018" are the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user-tailored and hence find a wide applicability. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS). To get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need, a comprehensive market research was undertaken. The survey targeted the most climate-relevant sectors, and considered representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, as well as a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users. Additionally, two workshops were organized to gather the needs in dissemination of climate scenarios. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the user needs according to the level of usage: "intensive users" are mainly researchers who handle large climate scenario data for further use in subsequent impact studies; "extensive users" are usually from administrations or consulting companies and perform simple calculations for specific questions or use provided graphics and tables; "facilitators" are usually from media, NGOs or schools and process and disseminate scenario information for a specific target group. The less intensive the usage of climate

Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

2011-01-01

A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

Mind Map Our Way into Effective Student Questioning: a Principle-Based Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Stokhof, Harry; de Vries, Bregje; Bastiaens, Theo; Martens, Rob

2017-07-01

Student questioning is an important self-regulative strategy and has multiple benefits for teaching and learning science. Teachers, however, need support to align student questioning to curricular goals. This study tests a prototype of a principle-based scenario that supports teachers in guiding effective student questioning. In the scenario, mind mapping is used to provide both curricular structure as well as support for student questioning. The fidelity of structure and the process of implementation were verified by interviews, video data and a product collection. Results show that the scenario was relevant for teachers, practical in use and effective for guiding student questioning. Results also suggest that shared responsibility for classroom mind maps contributed to more intensive collective knowledge construction.

SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey; Donovan, Sally; Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Kammen, Daniel

2014-06-01

This study provides an updated analysis of long-term energy system scenarios for California consistent with the State meeting its 2050 climate goal, including detailed analysis and assessment of electricity system build-out, operation, and costs across the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Four key elements are found to be critical for the State to achieve its 2050 goal of 80 percent greenhouse (GHG) reductions from the 1990 level: aggressive energy efficiency; clean electricity; widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating, and industry heating; and large-scale production of low-carbon footprint biofuels to largely replace petroleum-based liquid fuels. The approach taken here is that technically achievable energy efficiency measures are assumed to be achieved by 2050 and aggregated with the other key elements mentioned above to estimate resultant emissions in 2050. The energy and non-energy sectors are each assumed to have the objective of meeting an 80 percent reduction from their respective 1990 GHG levels for the purposes of analysis. A different partitioning of energy and non-energy sector GHG greenhouse reductions is allowed if emission reductions in one sector are more economic or technically achievable than in the other. Similarly, within the energy or non-energy sectors, greater or less than 80 percent reduction from 1990 is allowed for sub-sectors within the energy or non-energy sectors as long as the overall target is achieved. Overall emissions for the key economy-wide scenarios are considered in this report. All scenarios are compliant or nearly compliant with the 2050 goal. This finding suggests that multiple technical pathways exist to achieve the target with aggressive policy support and continued technology development of largely existing technologies.

Interpretation of scenario results in terms of described and mapped land change trajectories and archetypes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kuemmerle, Tobias; Stürck, Julia; Levers, Christian

Module VISIONS seeks to identify critical pathways to reach desired futures for land systems (i.e., visions). In order to do so, work package (WP) 11 links the model-based scenarios (module ASSESSMENT) to the visions formulated derived in a transdisciplinary process together with stakeholders...... of future developments of current land change archetypes; and (3) an interpretation of future land change in light of long-term land system trajectories. Synthesizing across these analyses, six key insights emerged. First, future land change was relatively similar across marker scenarios and different...... policy alternatives, for many regions in Europe, suggesting strong path dependency. Second, the impact of policy options can differ (a) between regions in Europe and (b) among marker scenarios, highlighting the need for contextualized, regionalized policy making. Third, the expansion and intensification...

Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

2017-12-01

Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit

Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Braun, Kimberly

1997-01-01

.... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

2000-01-01

The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

Reliable Freestanding Position-Based Routing in Highway Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A.; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

2012-01-01

Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

The Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Decision-Making Style

Science.gov (United States)

Chermack, Thomas J.; Nimon, Kim

2008-01-01

This research examines changes in decision-making styles as a result of participation in scenario planning. A quasi-experimental pretest-posttest design and several nonparametric tests were used to analyze data gathered from research participants in a technology firm in the Northeastern United States. Results show that participants tend to…

A critical analysis of the NegaWatt scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2011-01-01

The author proposes a rather radical critical analysis of the NegaWatt scenario which is mainly based on the development of the use of solid and liquid biomass produced by forests and farms, and of some marginal resources like wood and urban wastes. He shows that wood resources in France are not sufficient as part of the wood is used for construction. A further exploitation of wood would lead to a dramatic increase of costs. He shows that the scenario overestimates the available wood in France, and moreover, that the promoters of the scenario overstep the physical, biological, social and economic limits of the real world of agriculture

The climatic scenario of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deque, M.

2007-01-01

This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

Development of water use scenarios as a tool for adaptation to climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Jacinto

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The project ADAPTACLIMA, promoted by EPAL, the largest Portuguese Water Supply Utility, aims to provide the company with an adaptation strategy in the medium and long term to reduce the vulnerability of its activities to climate change. We used the four scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2 adopted in the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to produce local scenarios of water use. Available population SRES for Portugal were downscaled to the study area using a linear approach. Local land use scenarios were produced using the following steps: (1 characterization of the present land use for each municipality of the study area using Corine Land Cover and adaptation of the CLC classes to those used in the SRES; (2 identification of recent tendencies in land use change for the study area; (3 identification of SRES tendencies for land use change in Europe; and (4 production of local scenarios of land use. Water use scenarios were derived considering both population and land use scenarios as well as scenarios of change in other parameters (technological developments, increases in efficiency, climate changes, or political and behavioural changes. The A2 scenario forecasts an increase in population (+16% in the study area while the other scenarios show a reduction in the resident population (−6 to 8%. All scenarios, but especially A1, show a reduction in agricultural area and an increase in urban area. Regardless of the scenario, water use will progressively be reduced until 2100. These reductions are mainly due to increased water use efficiency and the reduction of irrigated land. The results accord with several projects modelling water use at regional and global level.

Based on user interest level of modeling scenarios and browse content

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yang

2017-08-01

User interest modeling is the core of personalized service, taking into account the impact of situational information on user preferences, the user behavior days of financial information. This paper proposes a method of user interest modeling based on scenario information, which is obtained by calculating the similarity of the situation. The user's current scene of the approximate scenario set; on the "user - interest items - scenarios" three-dimensional model using the situation pre-filtering method of dimension reduction processing. View the content of the user interested in the theme, the analysis of the page content to get each topic of interest keywords, based on the level of vector space model user interest. The experimental results show that the user interest model based on the scenario information is within 9% of the user's interest prediction, which is effective.

Environmental Assessment of Possible Future Waste Management Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yevgeniya Arushanyan

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Waste management has developed in many countries and will continue to do so. Changes towards increased recovery of resources in order to meet climate targets and for society to transition to a circular economy are important driving forces. Scenarios are important tools for planning and assessing possible future developments and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA model for environmental assessments of scenarios and waste management policy instruments. It is unique by including almost all waste flows in a country and also allow for including waste prevention. The results show that the environmental impacts from future waste management scenarios in Sweden can differ a lot. Waste management will continue to contribute with environmental benefits, but less so in the more sustainable future scenarios, since the surrounding energy and transportation systems will be less polluting and also because less waste will be produced. Valuation results indicate that climate change, human toxicity and resource depletion are the most important environmental impact categories for the Swedish waste management system. Emissions of fossil CO2 from waste incineration will continue to be a major source of environmental impacts in these scenarios. The model is used for analyzing environmental impacts of several policy instruments including weight based collection fee, incineration tax, a resource tax and inclusion of waste in a green electricity certification system. The effect of the studied policy instruments in isolation are in most cases limited, suggesting that stronger policy instruments as well as combinations are necessary to reach policy goals as set out in for example the EU action plan on circular economy.

Finding the Optimum Scenario in Risk-benefit Assessment: An Example on Vitamin D

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berjia, Firew Lemma; Hoekstra, J.; Verhagen, H.

2014-01-01

when changing from the reference to the optimum scenario. Conclusion: The method allowed us to find the optimum serum level in the vitamin D example. Additional case studies are needed to further validate the applicability of the approach to other nutrients or foods, especially with regards...... a method for finding the optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gains. Methods: A multiple scenario simulation. The method is presented using vitamin D intake in Denmark as an example. In addition to the reference scenario, several alternative scenarios are simulated to detect the scenario...... that provides maximum net health gains. As a common health metric, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) has been used to project the net health effect by using the QALIBRA (Quality of Life for Benefit Risk Assessment) software. Results: The method used in the vitamin D example shows that it is feasible to find...

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

2013-01-01

In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

Interference analysis in a LTE-A HetNet scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Monteiro, Nuno; Mihovska, Albena D.; Rodrigues, Antonio

2013-01-01

-coordination algorithms based on game theory for scenarios with different access policies. The results are given in terms of user and cell throughputs. They show that although the use of closed access policies can benefit from the use of cell-driven algorithms, open access policy is preferential to use with user...

Climate change scenarios for Canada's national parks : a users manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, B.; Wun, N.; Scott, D.; Barrow, E.

2003-01-01

A screening level impact assessment has shown that the implications of climate change for Canada's national parks are considerable. Climate change scenarios will be an important component in examining the potential climate change impacts and the implications of adaptation strategies. Most climate change scenarios are based on vulnerability, impact and adaptation research. This user's manual describes the development of 3 types of climate change scenarios including scenarios from global climate models (GCMs), bioclimate scenarios and daily scenarios for use by Parks Canada. The manual offers advice to first-time climate change scenario users in choosing and interpreting climate change, bioclimate and daily scenarios. It also addresses the theoretical and practical foundations of each climate scenario and shows how to access data regarding the various scenarios. Hands-on exercises are included as an interpretive aid. 20 refs., 4 tabs., 19 figs

Gauge mediation scenario with hidden sector renormalization in MSSM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arai, Masato; Kawai, Shinsuke; Okada, Nobuchika

2010-01-01

We study the hidden sector effects on the mass renormalization of a simplest gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking scenario. We point out that possible hidden sector contributions render the soft scalar masses smaller, resulting in drastically different sparticle mass spectrum at low energy. In particular, in the 5+5 minimal gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking with high messenger scale (that is favored by the gravitino cold dark matter scenario), we show that a stau can be the next lightest superparticle for moderate values of hidden sector self-coupling. This provides a very simple theoretical model of long-lived charged next lightest superparticles, which imply distinctive signals in ongoing and upcoming collider experiments.

Gauge mediation scenario with hidden sector renormalization in MSSM

Science.gov (United States)

Arai, Masato; Kawai, Shinsuke; Okada, Nobuchika

2010-02-01

We study the hidden sector effects on the mass renormalization of a simplest gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking scenario. We point out that possible hidden sector contributions render the soft scalar masses smaller, resulting in drastically different sparticle mass spectrum at low energy. In particular, in the 5+5¯ minimal gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking with high messenger scale (that is favored by the gravitino cold dark matter scenario), we show that a stau can be the next lightest superparticle for moderate values of hidden sector self-coupling. This provides a very simple theoretical model of long-lived charged next lightest superparticles, which imply distinctive signals in ongoing and upcoming collider experiments.

Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene

2010-01-01

The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

The negaWatt 2011 scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-03-01

This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

2000-02-14

The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

2010-01-01

Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

Re-Industrialisation and Low-Carbon Economy—Can They Go Together? Results from Stakeholder-Based Scenarios for Energy-Intensive Industries in the German State of North Rhine Westphalia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Lechtenböhmer

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW is home to one of the most important industrial regions in Europe, and is the first German state to have adopted its own Climate Protection Law (CPL. This paper describes the long-term (up to 2050 mitigation scenarios for NRW’s main energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors which served to support the implementation of the CPL. It also describes the process of scenario development, as these scenarios were developed through stakeholder participation. The scenarios considered three different pathways (best-available technologies, break-through technologies, and CO2 capture and storage. All pathways had optimistic assumptions on the rate of industrial growth and availability of low-carbon electricity. We find that a policy of “re-industrialisation” for NRW based on the current industrial structures (assumed here to represent an average growth of NRWs industrial gross value added (GVA of 1.6% per year until 2030 and 0.6% per year from 2030 to 2050, would pose a significant challenge for the achievement of overall energy demand and German greenhouse gas (GHG emission targets, in particular as remaining efficiency potentials in NRW are limited. In the best-available technology (BAT scenario CO2 emission reductions of only 16% are achieved, whereas the low carbon (LC and the carbon capture and storage (CCS scenario achieve 50% and 79% reduction respectively. Our results indicate the importance of successful development and implementation of a decarbonised electricity supply and breakthrough technologies in industry—such as electrification, hydrogen-based processes for steel, alternative cements or CCS—if significant growth is to be achieved in combination with climate mitigation. They, however, also show that technological solutions alone, together with unmitigated growth in consumption of material goods, could be insufficient to meet GHG reduction targets in industry.

FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serhiy Nozhenko

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

Economic and environmental assessment of cellulosic ethanol production scenarios annexed to a typical sugar mill.

Science.gov (United States)

Ali Mandegari, Mohsen; Farzad, Somayeh; Görgens, Johann F

2017-01-01

In this work different biorefinery scenarios were investigated, concerning the co-production of bioethanol and electricity from available lignocellulose at a typical sugar mill, as possible extensions to the current combustion of bagasse for steam and electricity production and burning trash on-filed. In scenario 1, the whole bagasse and brown leaves is utilized in a biorefinery and coal is burnt in the existing inefficient sugar mill boiler. Scenario 2 & 3 are assumed with a new centralized CHP unit without/with coal co-combustion, respectively. Also, through scenarios 4 & 5, the effect of water insoluble loading were studied. All scenarios provided energy for the sugarmill and the ethanol plant, with the export of surplus electricity. Economic analysis determined that scenario 1 was the most viable scenario due to less capital cost and economies-of scale. Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results, scenario 2 outperformed the other scenarios, while three scenarios showed lower contribution to environmental burdens than the current situation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A framework for modeling scenario-based barrier island storm impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.

2018-01-01

Methods for investigating the vulnerability of existing or proposed coastal features to storm impacts often rely on simplified parametric models or one-dimensional process-based modeling studies that focus on changes to a profile across a dune or barrier island. These simple studies tend to neglect the impacts to curvilinear or alongshore varying island planforms, influence of non-uniform nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport, irregular morphology of the offshore bathymetry, and impacts from low magnitude wave events (e.g. cold fronts). Presented here is a framework for simulating regionally specific, low and high magnitude scenario-based storm impacts to assess the alongshore variable vulnerabilities of a coastal feature. Storm scenarios based on historic hydrodynamic conditions were derived and simulated using the process-based morphologic evolution model XBeach. Model results show that the scenarios predicted similar patterns of erosion and overwash when compared to observed qualitative morphologic changes from recent storm events that were not included in the dataset used to build the scenarios. The framework model simulations were capable of predicting specific areas of vulnerability in the existing feature and the results illustrate how this storm vulnerability simulation framework could be used as a tool to help inform the decision-making process for scientists, engineers, and stakeholders involved in coastal zone management or restoration projects.

Floating Offshore Wind in California: Gross Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Speer, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-04-18

Construction of the first offshore wind farm in the United States began in 2015, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off of the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to anchor to the deeper seafloor if deployed off of the West Coast. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind along the West Coast, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical, large-scale deployment scenarios for California: 16 GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario A) and 10 GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario B). The results of this analysis can be used to better understand the general scales of economic opportunities that could result from offshore wind development. Results show total state gross domestic product (GDP) impacts of $16.2 billion in Scenario B or $39.7 billion in Scenario A for construction; and $3.5 billion in Scenario B or $7.9 billion in Scenario A for the operations phases.

Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

Science.gov (United States)

Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

2015-08-01

This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2001-01-01

This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

The 2 oC scenario-A sustainable world energy perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krewitt, Wolfram; Simon, Sonja; Graus, Wina; Teske, Sven; Zervos, Arthouros; Schaefer, Oliver

2007-01-01

A target-oriented scenario of future energy demand and supply is developed in a backcasting process. The main target is to reduce global CO 2 emissions to around 10 Gt/a in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to 2 o C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A 10-region energy system model is used for simulating global energy supply strategies. A review of sector and region-specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry. The 2 o C scenario shows that renewable energy could provide as much as half of the world's energy needs by 2050. Developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO 2 emissions, while at the same time increasing energy consumption through economic growth. OECD countries will be able to reduce their emissions by up to 80%

Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

2018-02-01

Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

Shipping container response to three severe railway accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mok, G.C.; Fischer, L.E.; Murty, S.S.; Witte, M.C.

1998-01-01

The probability of damage and the potential resulting hazards are analyzed for a representative rail shipping container for three severe rail accident scenarios. The scenarios are: (1) the rupture of closure bolts and resulting opening of closure lid due to a severe impact, (2) the puncture of container by an impacting rail-car coupler, and (3) the yielding of container due to side impact on a rigid uneven surface. The analysis results indicate that scenario 2 is a physically unreasonable event while the probabilities of a significant loss of containment in scenarios 1 and 3 are extremely small. Before assessing the potential risk for the last two scenarios, the uncertainties in predicting complex phenomena for rare, high- consequence hazards needs to be addressed using a rigorous methodology

The other radios: Alternative scenario in Peru

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Rivadeneyra-Olcese

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Peruvian radio shows a huge diversity in direct proportion to its multiculturality, the same which shows a process full of different influences of social actor which have produced a complex and extremely rich scenario, that is also filled with opportunities and challenges. Beyond the great capital commercial radio are the other radios, small companies, provincial, from church or the mayor or small business owners sons of folkloric melomania, different actors with a passion to establish a new media. The multiple motivations produce a scenario with many types of radio that we wishes to start knowing.

Climate scenarios for California

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

Cold dark matter in brane cosmology scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dahab, Eiman Abou El; Khalil, Shaaban

2006-01-01

We analyze the dark matter problem in the context of brane cosmology. We investigate the impact of the non-conventional brane cosmology on the relic abundance of non-relativistic stable particles in high and low reheating temperature scenarios. We show that in case of high reheating temperature, the brane cosmology may enhance the dark matter relic density by many order of magnitudes and a stringent lower bound on the five dimensional scale is obtained. We also consider low reheating temperature scenarios with chemical equilibrium and non-equilibrium. We emphasize that in non-equilibrium case, the resulting relic density is very small. While with equilibrium, it is increased by a factor of O(10 2 ) with respect to the standard thermal production. Therefore, dark matter particles with large cross section, which is favored by detection expirements, can be consistent with the recent relic density observational limits

The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanderson, Benjamin M; O'Neill, Brian C; Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Meehl, Gerald A; Knutti, Reto; Washington, Warren M

2011-01-01

Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50-100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300-400% increase above A1FI levels.

The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanderson, Benjamin M; O' Neill, Brian C; Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Meehl, Gerald A [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Knutti, Reto; Washington, Warren M, E-mail: bsander@ucar.edu [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich (Switzerland)

2011-07-15

Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50-100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300-400% increase above A1FI levels.

Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [University of Texas at Dallas; Feng, Cong [University of Texas at Dallas; Wang, Zhenke [University of Texas at Dallas; Zhang, Jie [University of Texas at Dallas

2018-02-01

Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power and currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start-time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Logan, Jeffrey [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McCall, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Richards, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-11-01

The Standard Scenarios and this associated report, which are now in their second year, present an examination of some of the key aspects of the change occurring, or anticipated to occur, in the power sector over the next several decades. The Standard Scenarios consist of 18 power sector scenarios which have been projected using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) long-term capacity expansion model and the dGen rooftop PV diffusion model. The purpose of the Standard Scenarios and this associated report is to provide context, discussion, and data to inform stakeholder decision-making regarding the future direction of U.S. power sector. As an extension to this report, the Standard Scenario outputs are presented in a downloadable format online using the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer at http://en.openei.org/apps/reeds/. This report reflects high-level conclusions and analysis, whereas the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer includes the scenario results that can be used for more in-depth analysis.

An economic evaluation of alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gbadebo Oladosu

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Energy market conditions have shifted dramatically since the USA renewable fuel standards (RFS1 in 2005; RFS2 in 2007 were enacted. The USA has transitioned from an increasing dependence on oil imports to abundant domestic oil production. In addition, increases in the use of ethanol, the main biofuel currently produced in the USA, is now limited by the blend wall constraint. Given this, the current study evaluates alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA, accounting for changes in market conditions. The analysis is performed with a general equilibrium model that reflects the structure of the USA biofuel market as the transition to advanced biofuels begins. Results suggest that ethanol consumption would increase, albeit slowly, if current biofuel deployment rates of about 10% are maintained as persistently lower oil prices lead to a gradual increase in the consumption of liquid transportation fuels. Without the blend wall constraint, this study finds that the overall economic impact of a full implementation of the USA RFS2 policy is largely neutral before 2022. However, the economic impacts become slightly negative under the blend wall constraint since more expensive bio-hydrocarbons are needed to meet the RFS2 mandates. Results for a scenario with reduced advanced biofuel deployment based on current policy plans show near neutral economic impacts up to 2027. This scenario is also consistent with another scenario where the volume of bio-hydrocarbons deployed is reduced to adjust for its higher cost and energy content relative to deploying the mandated RFS2 advanced biofuel volumes as ethanol. The important role of technological change is demonstrated under pioneer and accelerated technology scenarios, with the latter leading to neutral or positive economic effects up to 2023 under most blend wall scenarios. All scenarios evaluated in this study are found to have positive long-term benefits for the USA economy.

Games and Scenarios for Real-Time System Validation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Shuhao

This thesis presents research on the validation of real-time embedded software systems in the context of model-based development. The thesis proposes scenario-based and game-theoretic approaches to system analysis, verification, synthesis and testing to address the challenges that arise from....... By linking our prototype translators with existing model checker Uppaal and game solver Uppaal-Tiga, we show that these methods contribute to the interaction correctness and timeliness of early system designs. The thesis also shows that testing a real-time reactive system can be viewed as playing a timed...... communicating real-time systems can be modeled and specified with LSC. By translating LSC to timed automata (TAs), we reduce scenario-based model consistency checking and property verification to CTL real-time model checking problems, and reduce scenario-based synthesis to a timed game solving problem...

CIEMAT analyses of transition fuel cycle scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Gonzalez-Romero, E.M.

2010-01-01

The efficient design of strategies for the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy or the phase-out of this technology is possible after the study of transition scenarios from the current fuel cycle to a future one with advanced technologies and concepts. CIEMAT has participated in numerous fuel cycle scenarios studies for more than a decade and, from some years ago, special attention has been put in the study of transition scenarios. In this paper, the main characteristics of each studied transition scenario are described. The main results and partial conclusions of each scenario are also analyzed. As general conclusions of transition studies, we highlight that the advantages of advanced technologies in transition scenarios can be obtained by countries or regions with sufficiently large nuclear parks, with a long-term implementation of the strategy. For small countries, these advantages are also accessible with an affordable cost, by means of the regional collaboration during several decades. (authors)

Integrative Scenario Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joerg A. Priess

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

Emergency exercise scenario tools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sjoeblom, K.

1998-03-01

Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitcher, Hugh M

2009-01-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy—The AIM/Enduse modelling approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha; Limmeechokchai, Bundit

2015-01-01

The transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward. Thailand’s land transport sector is modelled using the AIM/Enduse, which is a recursive dynamic optimization model, based on bottom-up modelling principle. The travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel. The objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society (LCS) measures and emission tax (ET). Two scenario clusters are devised along with the BAU case. The LCS scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are LCS-L, LCS-M and LCS-H. The emission tax (ET) cluster has four scenarios, where the taxes of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO 2 are implemented. Along with this the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of the counter-measures (CMs) and the co-benefits in terms of energy security, productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed. Results show that LCS scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 Mt-CO 2 cumulatively, from 2010 to 2050. In terms of MACs, new vehicles play a pivotal role, along with hybrid vehicles. The Average Abatement Cost (AAC) assessment shows that the AAC of LCS-H scenario is in the order of 100 USD/t-CO 2 . All the LCS and ET scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity. There is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well. -- Highlights: •Thailand transport sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. •Potential cumulative mitigation of CO 2 during 2010–2050 is approximately 30% when compared the BAU scenario. •Abatement cost curves show that various counter measures are practical in the transport sector. •Energy security is enhanced due to CO 2 mitigation in the LCS scenario

Assessment of Alternative Scenarios for CO2 Reduction Potential in the Residential Building Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Young-Sun Jeong

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The South Korean government announced its goals of reducing the country’s CO2 emissions by up to 30% below the business as usual (BAU projections by 2020 in 2009 and 37% below BAU projections by 2030 in 2015. This paper explores the potential energy savings and reduction in CO2 emissions offered by residential building energy efficiency policies and plans in South Korea. The current and future energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the residential building were estimated using an energy–environment model from 2010 to 2030. The business as usual scenario is based on the energy consumption characteristic of residential buildings using the trends related to socio-economic prospects and the number of dwellings. The alternative scenarios took into account energy efficiency for new residential buildings (scenario I, refurbishment of existing residential buildings (scenario II, use of highly efficient boilers (scenario III, and use of a solar thermal energy system (scenario IV. The results show that energy consumption in the residential building sector will increase by 33% between 2007 and 2030 in the BAU scenario. Maximum reduction in CO2 emissions in the residential building sector of South Korea was observed by 2030 in scenario I. In each alternative scenario analysis, CO2 emissions were 12.9% lower than in the business as usual scenario by the year 2030.

Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Segura

Full Text Available Adaptive limiter control (ALC and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects. We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Segura, Juan; Hilker, Frank M; Franco, Daniel

2017-01-01

Adaptive limiter control (ALC) and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH) are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects). We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

Environmental sensitivity studies for Gen-IV roadmap fast reactor scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Chang Joon

2004-03-01

The environmental effect of the self-sufficient fast reactor scenario, which is considered as one of the full fissile plutonium and transuranic recycle scenario in Gen-IV roadmap, has been analyzed by using the dynamic analysis method. Through the parametric calculations for the fast reactor deployment time and capacity, the environmental effects of the fuel cycle for important parameters such as the amount of spent fuel and the combined amounts of plutonium and minor actinides were estimated and compared to those of the once-through LWR fuel cycle. The results of the sensitivity calculations showed that an early deployment of the fast reactor with a high capacity can reduce the accumulation of spent fuel by up to 37%. Furthermore, the recycling of plutonium and minor actinides can reduce the key repository parameter (long term decay heat). Therefore the favorable environmental effects can be expected with the implementation of the symbiotic fast reactor scenario

WATER AVAILABILITY IN SOUTHERN PORTUGAL FOR DIFFERENT CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS SUBJECTED TO BIAS CORRECTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandra Mourato

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Regional climate models provided precipitation and temperature time series for control (1961–1990 and scenario (2071–2100 periods. At southern Portu gal, the climate models in the control period systematically present higher temp eratures and lower precipitation than the observations. Therefore, the direct inpu t of climate model data into hydrological models might result in more severe scenarios for future water availability. Three bias correction methods (Delta Change, Dire ct Forcing and Hybrid are analysed and their performances in water availability impac t studies are assessed. The Delta Change method assumes that the observed series variab ility is maintained in the scenario period and is corrected by the evolution predicted by the climate models. The Direct Forcing method maintains the scenario series variabi lity, which is corrected by the bias found in the control period, and the Hybrid method maintains the control model series variability, which is corrected by the bias found in the control period and by the evolution predicted by the climate models. To assess the climate impacts in the water resources expected for the scenario period, a physically based spatially distributed hydrological model, SHETRAN, is used for runoff pro jections in a southern Portugal basin. The annual and seasonal runoff shows a runoff d ecrease in the scenario period, increasing the water shor tage that is already experienc ed. The overall annual reduction varies between –80% and –35%. In general, the results show that the runoff reductions obtained with climate models corrected with the Delt a Change method are highest but with a narrow range that varies between –80% and –5 2%.

xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-03-01

This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Ertug Ercin

2016-05-01

Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

1998-01-01

This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

Developing scenarios for the Norwegian travel industry 2025

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anniken Enger

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The Norwegian travel industry faces decline in important international tourism segments and needs an industry wide and future‐oriented strategy to face these challenges. Accordingly, a common understanding of future drivers and different scenarios for the industry is needed. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – Using the process of scenario analysis and drawing upon the involvement of the tourism industry, this paper describes the method, drivers, scenarios, and implications. Findings – The research identified six important drivers with predictable outcomes: uneven global economic development, digitalization, climate change, consumer demand – return on time, centralization, and demography. The Norwegian economy and Norwegian politics were the two drivers that stood out as the most significant for the tourism industry, with a very uncertain outcome, and constituted the two axes of the scenarios. This resulted in four scenarios: Money Rules, The Urban Diamond, Opportunities for All, and Master Plan. Practical implications – The four scenarios represent different economic value of international tourism in Norway. The Opportunities for All and Master Plan scenarios represent the greatest economic value for Norwegian tourism. They indicate great opportunities for tourism to become the “new oil” in Norway if the oil economy declines. The two scenarios differ with respect to the degree of governance control vs market liberalization. The scenarios will be used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the tourism industry, and to further explore how governance control and market liberalization may be combined. Originality/value – The research identified six drivers which are significant for the Norwegian tourism industry. This resulted in four scenarios which are used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the industry.

Economic and financial viability of small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico: economic scenario 2010-2018.

Science.gov (United States)

Posadas-Domínguez, R R; Callejas-Juárez, N; Arriaga-Jordán, C M; Martínez-Castañeda, F E

2016-12-01

A simulation Monte Carlo model was used to assess the economic and financial viability of 130 small-scale dairy farms in central Mexico, through a Representative Small-Scale Dairy Farm. Net yields were calculated for a 9-year planning horizon by means of simulated values for the distribution of input and product prices taking 2010 as base year and considering four scenarios which were compared against the scenario of actual production. The other scenarios were (1) total hiring in of needed labour; (2) external purchase of 100 % of inputs and (3) withdrawal of subsidies to production. A stochastic modelling approach was followed to determine the scenario with the highest economic and financial viability. Results show a viable economic and financial situation for the real production scenario, as well as the scenarios for total hiring of labour and of withdrawal of subsidies, but the scenario when 100 % of feed inputs for the herd are bought-in was not viable.

The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

1998-04-01

The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

Finding the Optimum Scenario in Risk-benefit Assessment: An Example on Vitamin D

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berjia, Firew Lemma; Hoekstra, J.; Verhagen, H.

2014-01-01

an optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gain in health risk-benefit assessment of dietary exposure as expressed by serum vitamin D level. With regard to the vitamin D assessment, a considerable health gain is observed due to the reduction of risk of other cause mortality, fall and hip fractures......Background: In risk-benefit assessment of food and nutrients, several studies so far have focused on comparison of two scenarios to weigh the health effect against each other. One obvious next step is finding the optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gains. Aim: This paper aims to show...... that provides maximum net health gains. As a common health metric, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) has been used to project the net health effect by using the QALIBRA (Quality of Life for Benefit Risk Assessment) software. Results: The method used in the vitamin D example shows that it is feasible to find...

Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

2000-01-01

Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison; Haw, Mary

2009-01-01

Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO 2 -eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.

Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Feng, Cong [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Wang, Zhenke [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Zhang, Jie [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States)

2017-08-31

Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power, and they are currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

Renewable energy: past trends and future growth in 2 degrees scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Crijns-Graus, Wina

2016-01-01

This study explores past growth rates of renewable energy sources (1971-2012) and required future ones in 2 degrees scenarios. Results show that in spite of comparatively high growth of renewable energy in the period 2000-2012, the share of renewable energy in total energy use stayed the same (13%).

Electricity planning in Japan by 2030 through scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Qi, Zhang; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

2013-01-01

Under continuing policies of the mitigation of GHG (Green House Gases) emission, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The development plans of nuclear power and renewable energy - mainly PV and wind power - need to be reconsidered. Therefore, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios in 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development strategies: (1) negative nuclear power; (2) conservative nuclear power; and (3) active pursuit of nuclear power. On the other side, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering energy saving. The purpose of the study is to propose electricity supply systems with maximum renewable energy penetration under different nuclear power development strategies and demand situations through scenario analysis. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input-output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix and CO 2 emissions of the scenarios were compared and analyzed with each other and with historical data. The results show that (1) penetration level of renewable energy is subject to the share of nuclear power as base load; (2) it is very difficult to remove nuclear power absolutely from the electricity system even when a high level of penetration of renewable energy is realized; (3) high level penetration of renewable energy can reduce the dependence on nuclear and thermal power, but there is a need for more flexible power sources to absorb fluctuations; (4) CO 2 emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels can be readily achieved with the help of renewable energy, nuclear power and energy saving in 2030. This is a revised version of the paper that was published in [1]. (author)

Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruijven, Bas J. van; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Vliet, Jasper van; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Elzen, Michel G.J. den

2012-01-01

In order to limit global mean temperature increase, long-term greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced. This paper discusses the implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions for major Asian regions (China, India, Indonesia, South-East Asia, Japan and Korea) based on results from the IMAGE modelling framework. Energy use in regions and economic sectors is affected differently by ambitious climate policies. We find that the potential for emission reduction varies widely between regions. With respect to technology choices in the power sector, we find major application of CO 2 storage in Indonesia and India, whereas Korea and India apply more solar and wind. Projections for Japan include a (debatable) large share of nuclear power. China and, India, and South-East Asia, show a diverse technology choice in the power sector. For the industry sector, we find that the recent rapid growth in China limits the potential for emission reduction in the next decades, assuming that recently built coal-based industry facilities are in use for the next decades. For the residential sector, the model results show that fewer households switch from traditional fuels to modern fuels in GHG mitigation scenarios. With respect to co-benefits, we find lower imports of fossil energy in mitigation scenarios and a clear reduction of air pollutant emissions. - Highlights: ► The potential for emission reduction varies widely between regions. ► Some regions have attractive CO 2 storage capacity; others have low-cost solar/wind potential. ► The recent rapid growth of Chinese industry may limit emission reduction potential for decades. ► Fewer households switch from traditional fuels to modern fuels in mitigation scenarios. ► Mitigation scenarios show less fossil energy import and reduction of air pollutant emission.

Shell energy scenarios to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

2011-12-01

A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

1997-11-01

The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

2008-01-01

This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

2013-01-01

Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lempert, R. J.

2015-12-01

Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

Feasibility study of advanced operation scenario in KSTAR using CRONOS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, H.-S.; Na, Y.-S.; Bae, Y.S.; Jeon, Y.M.; Kim, S.H.; Artaud, J.-F.

2014-01-01

We report the results of predictive modelling of advanced operation scenarios in KSTAR. Firstly, the operation windows are produced to explore the KSTAR advanced scenarios in the condition of upgrading H/CD mix. Using METIS code, the rough ranges of operation condition of I_P and B_T to utilize for the development of advanced operation scenario scenario are determined. Secondly, the advanced inductive and the advanced tokamak operation scenario of KSTAR are developing with the scaling based and the physics based transport model by using CRONOS to make a suggestion to on-going KSTAR experiment. Thirdly, the dependency of the time of L-H transition on q_0 an q_m_i_n is investigated for the advanced inductive operation scenario. These reliable results can become the useful database for exploring the advanced regime of KSTAR discharges in the future. (author)

The use of physical indicators for industrial energy demand scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schenk, Niels J.; Moll, Henri C.

2007-01-01

Scientific information on the size and nature of the threat of climate change is needed by politicians in order to weight their decisions. Computerised models are extremely useful tools to quantify the long-term effects of current policies. This paper describes a new modelling approach that allows formulation of industrial energy demand projections consistent with the assumptions for scenario drivers such as GDP and population. In the model, a level of industrial production is used as a key variable, and we define it in physical units, rather than in monetary units. The aim of this research is to increase insights that come with long-term energy demand scenarios. This research clearly shows that physical indicators provide additional insights in scenario analysis. The use of physical indicators instead of monetary indicators seems to affect the energy scenarios significantly. The differences with monetary indicators are larger in developing regions than in OECD regions. We conclude that an integrated energy and materials approach reveals developments that are hardly visible using a monetary approach. Moreover, this research shows the potential and benefits of the use of physical indicators for scenario development. (author)

From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations

Science.gov (United States)

Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

1994-03-01

The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

2009-01-01

Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

The prosa methodology for scenario development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grupa, J.B.

2001-01-01

In this paper a methodology for scenario development is proposed. The method is developed in an effort to convince ourselves (and others) that all conceivable future developments of a waste repository have been covered. To be able to assess all conceivable future developments, the method needs to be comprehensive. To convince us and others the method should be structured in such a way that the treatment of each conceivable future development is traceable. The methodology is currently being applied to two Dutch disposal designs. Preliminary results show that the elaborated method functions better than the original method. However, some elements in the method will need further refinement. (author)

Study of Mobility Enhancements for RPL in Convergecast Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinpeng Wang

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In recent years, mobility support has become an important requirement in various wireless sensor network (WSN applications. However, due to the strict resource constraints of power, memory, and processing resources in WSNs, routing protocols are mainly designed without considering mobility. Low-Power and Lossy Networks (LLNs are a special type of WSNs that tolerate data loss. The Routing Protocol for Low-Power and Lossy Networks (RPL is a routing protocol for LLNs that adapts IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6 and runs on top of the IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 802.15.4 standard. RPL supports multipoint-to-point traffic and point-to-multipoint traffic. In this paper we propose a mobility enhancement mechanism in order to improve data collection applications in highly mobile scenarios. The enhancement is based on signal strength monitoring and depth updating in order to improve the routing protocol performance in mobile scenarios. This enhancement helps routing protocols to cope better with topology changes and makes proactive decisions on updating next-hop neighbours. We integrated this mechanism into the RPL and compared it with other existing RPL mobility support enhancements. Results obtained through simulation using Cooja show that our work outperforms other existing RPL mobility supports on different performance metrics. Results also prove the efficiency of our proposal in highly mobile scenarios.

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

Energy transition: from national scenarios to European policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathieu, Mathilde

2013-01-01

This thesis aims at seeing how an analysis of national scenarios of energy transition may contribute to the elaboration of European energy and climate policies. The author first identifies the characteristics of energy scenarios, and the relationship between a scenario considered as an object on the one hand, and a vision for the long term on the other hand. She proposes an analysis framework which enables a comparative analysis of scenarios in order to identify stakes and challenges for the future European policy. In the second part, the author presents three examples (Germany, United Kingdom and France) and discusses their political context and adopted scenarios. After an overview of existing European energy and climate policies, the results of the analysis are given for two specific sectors: transports and electricity

[Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

2015-08-01

Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

Scenarios of future energy intensities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

Estimation of incremental reactivities for multiple day scenarios: an application to ethane and dimethyoxymethane

Science.gov (United States)

Stockwell, William R.; Geiger, Harald; Becker, Karl H.

Single-day scenarios are used to calculate incremental reactivities by definition (Carter, J. Air Waste Management Assoc. 44 (1994) 881-899.) but even unreactive organic compounds may have a non-negligible effect on ozone concentrations if multiple-day scenarios are considered. The concentration of unreactive compounds and their products may build up over a multiple-day period and the oxidation products may be highly reactive or highly unreactive affecting the overall incremental reactivity of the organic compound. We have developed a method for calculating incremental reactivities for multiple days based on a standard scenario for polluted European conditions. This method was used to estimate maximum incremental reactivities (MIR) and maximum ozone incremental reactivities (MOIR) for ethane and dimethyoxymethane for scenarios ranging from 1 to 6 days. It was found that the incremental reactivities increased as the length of the simulation period increased. The MIR of ethane increased faster than the value for dimethyoxymethane as the scenarios became longer. The MOIRs of ethane and dimethyoxymethane increased but the change was more modest for scenarios longer than 3 days. MOIRs of both volatile organic compounds were equal within the uncertainties of their chemical mechanisms by the 5 day scenario. These results show that dimethyoxymethane has an ozone forming potential on a per mass basis that is only somewhat greater than ethane if multiple-day scenarios are considered.

Equity in climate-economy scenarios: the importance of subnational income distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baer, Paul

2009-01-01

It is widely accepted that climate change raises equity considerations, and this has been addressed in various explicit and implicit ways in scenario-based climate and climate-policy research. In this paper I look in particular at the IPCC's well-known 'Special Report on Emissions Scenarios', in which equity is primarily quantified as the distribution of income between countries, and highlight the need for more explicit treatment of equity both within and across national borders. I apply an existing method for modeling subnational income distributions and show that this affects the results of welfare calculations of the type used in economic analyses of climate policy. Additionally, I suggest ways in which this kind of equity analysis could be applied to questions that address broader considerations of climate policy and development, such as burden sharing in the allocation of obligations, and conclude with remarks that frame the scenario development process in the context of what I call 'the contested storyline of the present'.

Advanced scenarios for ITER operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sips, A.C.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany)

2004-07-01

In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produce and study plasmas dominated by self heating. This would give unique opportunities to explore, in reactor relevant conditions, the physics of {alpha}-particle heating, plasma turbulence and turbulent transport, stability limits to the plasma pressure and exhaust of power and particles. Important new results obtained in experiments, theory and modelling, enable an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring in tokamak plasmas and give enhanced confidence in ITER achieving its goals. In particular, progress has been made in research to raise the performance of tokamaks, aimed to extend the discharge pulse length towards steady-state operation (advanced scenarios). Standard tokamak discharges have a current density increasing monotonically towards the centre of the plasma. Advanced scenarios on the other hand use a modified current density profile. Different advanced scenarios range from (i) plasmas that sustain a central region with a flat current density profile (zero magnetic shear), capable of operating stationary at high plasma pressure, to (ii) discharges with an off axis maximum of the current density profile (reversed magnetic shear in the core), able to form internal transport barriers, to increase the confinement of the plasma. The physics of advanced tokamak discharges is described, together with an overview of recent results from different tokamak experiments. International collaboration between experiments aims to provide a better understanding, control and optimisation of these plasmas. The ability to explore advanced scenarios in ITER is very desirable, in order to verify the result obtained in

Modulus stabilization in a non-flat warped braneworld scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Banerjee, Indrani [S.N. Bose National Centre for Basic Sciences, Department of Astrophysics and Cosmology, Kolkata (India); SenGupta, Soumitra [Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science, Department of Theoretical Physics, Kolkata (India)

2017-05-15

The stability of the modular field in a warped brane world scenario has been a subject of interest for a long time. Goldberger and Wise (GW) proposed a mechanism to achieve this by invoking a massive scalar field in the bulk space-time neglecting the back-reaction. In this work, we examine the possibility of stabilizing the modulus without bringing about any external scalar field. We show that instead of flat 3-branes as considered in Randall-Sundrum (RS) warped braneworld model, if one considers a more generalized version of warped geometry with de Sitter 3-brane, then the brane vacuum energy automatically leads to a modulus potential with a metastable minimum. Our result further reveals that in this scenario the gauge hierarchy problem can also be resolved for an appropriate choice of the brane's cosmological constant. (orig.)

Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tuzhyk Kateryna

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling. The paper presents a dynamic simulation system of sustainable development scenarios on farms using cognitive modeling. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect the sustainable development of farms. Its user provides answers to strategic issues connected with the level of farm sustainability over a long-term perspective of dynamic development. The work contains a description of the model structure as well as the results of simulations carried out on 16 farms in northern Ukraine. The results show that the process of sustainability is based mainly on the potential for innovation in agricultural production and biodiversity. The user is able to simulate various scenarios for the sustainable development of a farm and visualize the influence of factors on the economic and social situation, as well as on environmental aspects. Upon carrying out a series of simulations, it was determined that the development of farms characterized by sustainable development is based on additional profit, which serves as the main motivation for transforming a conventional farm into a sustainable one. Nevertheless, additional profit is not the only driving force in the system of sustainable development. The standard of living, market condition, and legal regulations as well as government support also play a significant motivational role.

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Primordial gravitational waves induced by magnetic fields in an ekpyrotic scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asuka Ito

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Both inflationary and ekpyrotic scenarios can account for the origin of the large scale structure of the universe. It is often said that detecting primordial gravitational waves is the key to distinguish both scenarios. We show that this is not true if the gauge kinetic function is present in the ekpyrotic scenario. In fact, primordial gravitational waves sourced by the gauge field can be produced in an ekpyrotic universe. We also study scalar fluctuations sourced by the gauge field and show that it is negligible compared to primordial gravitational waves. This comes from the fact that the fast roll condition holds in ekpyrotic models.

Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

2012-08-01

Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, such as mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This paper addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to simulate spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century? (3) How to use standardized drought indices to represent theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-yr multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France. Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index, respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well simulated by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals, either retrospective or prospective. The perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events derived from these theoretical adaptation scenarios show much reduced changes, but they call for more realistic scenarios at both the catchment and national scale in order to accurately assess the combined effect of

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

Quantifying scenarios to check statistical procedures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beetle, T.M.

1976-01-01

Ways of diverting nuclear material are presented in a form that reflects the effects of the diversions on a select set of statistical accounting procedures. Twelve statistics are examined for changes in mean values under sixty diversion scenarios. Several questions about the statistics are answered using a table of quantification results. Findings include a smallest, proper subset of the set of statistics which has one or more changed mean values under each of the diversion scenarios

Excess heat from kraft pulp mills: Trade-offs between internal and external use in the case of Sweden-Part 2: Results for future energy market scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joensson, Johanna; Svensson, Inger-Lise; Berntsson, Thore; Moshfegh, Bahram

2008-01-01

In this paper the trade-off between internal and external use of excess heat from a kraft pulp mill is investigated for four different future energy market scenarios. The work follows the methodology described in Svensson et al. [2008. Excess heat from kraft pulp mills: trade-offs between internal and external use in the case of Sweden-Part 1: methodology. Energy Policy, submitted for publication], where a systematic approach is proposed for investigating the potential for profitable excess heat cooperation. The trade-off is analyzed by economic optimization of an energy system model consisting of a pulp mill and an energy company (ECO). In the model, investments can be made, which increase the system's energy efficiency by utilization of the mill's excess heat, as well as investments that increase the electricity production. The results show that the trade-off depends on energy market prices, the district heating demand and the type of existing heat production. From an economic point of view, external use of the excess heat is preferred for all investigated energy market scenarios if the mill is studied together with an ECO with a small heat load. For the cases with medium or large district heating loads, the optimal use of excess heat varies with the energy market price scenarios. However, from a CO 2 emissions perspective, external use is preferred, giving the largest reduction of global emissions in most cases

Scenarios for ITS telecommunications technologies development in Poland for the years 2007-2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kazimierz BARTCZAK

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The article shows four scenarios for the development of ITS communications technologies in Poland for the years 2007-2013. Global Business Network methodology is used to make up the scenarios. The basic dimensions of the scenarios are (a type of sectors in the national economy (public vs. private, (b type of communications technology (wireline vs. wireless. The scenarios present possible futures.

The estimation of economic impacts resulting from the severe accidents of a nuclear power plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeong, Jong Tae; Jung, Won dea

2001-03-01

The economic impacts resulting from the severe accidents of a nuclear power plant were estimated for the different combinations of a release parameters and metrorological data. According to the cost estimation for the basic scenarios, the population dependent cost is dominant. The cost for the protective actions such as evacuation and relocation have a small portion in the total cost and show little variation from scenario to scenario. The economic cost estimation for the seasonal scenarios show very similar trend as that for the basic scenarios. There are little or small variation in the economic cost for the different scenarios for each season except for the season-5 scenario. The health effect value shows maximum in Summer and minimum in Fall. On the contrast, the economic cost shows maximum in Fall and minimum in Summer. The result will be used as basic data in the establishment of effective emergency response and in the cost/benefit analysis in developing optimum risk reduction strategies.

The estimation of economic impacts resulting from the severe accidents of a nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Jong Tae; Jung, Won dea

2001-03-01

The economic impacts resulting from the severe accidents of a nuclear power plant were estimated for the different combinations of a release parameters and metrorological data. According to the cost estimation for the basic scenarios, the population dependent cost is dominant. The cost for the protective actions such as evacuation and relocation have a small portion in the total cost and show little variation from scenario to scenario. The economic cost estimation for the seasonal scenarios show very similar trend as that for the basic scenarios. There are little or small variation in the economic cost for the different scenarios for each season except for the season-5 scenario. The health effect value shows maximum in Summer and minimum in Fall. On the contrast, the economic cost shows maximum in Fall and minimum in Summer. The result will be used as basic data in the establishment of effective emergency response and in the cost/benefit analysis in developing optimum risk reduction strategies

Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duus, Henrik Johannsen

2016-01-01

insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

2001-01-01

Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies

Scenario? Guilty!

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kyng, Morten

1992-01-01

Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

Introduction of developing a list of MSO generic scenarios for PHWR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Jae Wan; Park, Jun Hyun; Bae, Hui Soo [STANDARD Testing and Engineering Ing. Ltd, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

Multiple Spurious Operation(MSO) scenarios should contain scenarios threatening Post-fire safe shutdown function by MSO of Safe Shutdown Equipments(SSEs) as well as Non-SSEs. The list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) was developed by industrial survey. Although not all scenarios of the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) are considered applicable to every reactor type, this list provides an input about MSO identification and treatment process. If NEI 00-01 is applied to other reactor type, analyst should review applicability of the list of generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) and consider potential MSO scenarios undescribed in the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G). Especially, in PHWR case, there is no list of MSO generic scenarios in Canada or internationally. There are substantial physical variations between NPPs. So some generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) would need validation. Nevertheless, industrial stakeholder have not did any MSO work until now. In this paper, results of first stage research that develop the list of MSO generic scenarios for pressurized heavy water reactor(PHWR) is introduced. According to the review results, specific review of the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) is required such as how it applies to PHWR. And criteria was established for review of availability of the list of generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G). However there are still many tasks such as potential scenario review, risk model review and expert panel review.

Carbon tax scenarios and their effects on the Irish energy sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Cosmo, Valeria; Hyland, Marie

2013-01-01

In this paper we use annual time series data from 1960 to 2008 to estimate the long run price and income elasticities underlying energy demand in Ireland. The Irish economy is divided into five sectors: residential, industrial, commercial, agricultural and transport, and separate energy demand equations are estimated for all sectors. Energy demand is broken down by fuel type, and price and income elasticities are estimated for the primary fuels in the Irish fuel mix. Using the estimated price and income elasticities we forecast Irish sectoral energy demand out to 2025. The share of electricity in the Irish fuel mix is predicted to grow over time, as the share of carbon intensive fuels such as coal, oil and peat, falls. The share of electricity in total energy demand grows most in the industrial and commercial sectors, while oil remains an important fuel in the residential and transport sectors. Having estimated the baseline forecasts, two different carbon tax scenarios are imposed and the impact of these scenarios on energy demand, carbon dioxide emissions, and government revenue is assessed. If it is assumed that the level of the carbon tax will track the futures price of carbon under the EU-ETS, the carbon tax will rise from €21.50 per tonne CO 2 in 2012 (the first year forecasted) to €41 in 2025. Results show that under this scenario total emissions would be reduced by approximately 861,000 tonnes of CO 2 in 2025 relative to a zero carbon tax scenario, and that such a tax would generate €1.1 billion in revenue in the same year. We also examine a high tax scenario under which emissions reductions and revenue generated will be greater. Finally, in order to assess the macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax, the carbon tax scenarios were run in HERMES, the ESRI's medium-term macroeconomic model. The results from HERMES show that, a carbon tax of €41 per tonne CO 2 would lead to a 0.21% contraction in GDP, and a 0.08% reduction in employment. A higher carbon

Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

2001-01-01

visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants......Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

EMF 9 scenario design (EMF WP 9.4)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1989-01-01

This paper describes the specifications of the scenarios selected by the EMF 9 Working Group, which is focusing on North American natural gas markets. The four first-round scenarios include: (1) an upper oil price path, (2) a lower oil price path, (3) a lower resource base, and (4) a higher gas demand due to policies and technologies affecting the electric utility sector. Each scenario represents a combination of market and regulatory environments. For example, the upper oil price scenario combines an upper oil price trend with a reference set of resource and demand conditions and with a pro-competitive regulatory environment. This scenario also serves as a control case for comparing the other scenarios, which specify a change in one of the environments for oil prices, resources, or demand. The regulatory environment has been maintained constant across these first-round scenarios but may be changed depending upon the later recommendations of the regulatory policy and market structure study group. The next section describes the detailed specifications for modelers in simulating the upper oil price scenario. Guidance is offered for energy prices, economic activity, and resource base estimates. The next three sections describe the other three scenarios that involve changes in these inputs from their values in the upper oil price scenario. Special wellhead price assumptions for stand-alone supply models and plans for developing inputs for Canadian models are then discussed. The final section describes the output variables to be reported to the EMF staff for comparing model results

Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Alessandri

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle during the 21st century (21C. We analyze the strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. By combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere, we obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. We investigate the differences in the strengthening of the hydrological cycle in two centennial simulations performed with an Earth system model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES A1B, which is a medium-high non-mitigation scenario, we consider a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1 with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K.

Our results show that the mitigation scenario effectively constrains the global warming with a stabilization below 2 K with respect to the 1950–2000 historical period. On the other hand, the E1 precipitation does not follow the temperature field toward a stabilization path but continues to increase over the mitigation period. Quite unexpectedly, the mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen the hydrological cycle even more than SRES A1B till around 2070. We show that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to decreased sulfate aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B.

The last decades of the 21C show a marked increase in global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost the same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to the 20th century. Our

Integrated scenarios of regional development in Ceará and Piauí

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Döll, Petra; Krol, Martinus S.; Fuhr, Dagmar; Gaiser, T.; Krol, M.S; Frischkorn, H.; de Araújo, J.C.

2003-01-01

Scenarios of the future are an important tool for supporting sustainability-oriented regional planning. To assist regional planning in two federal states in semi-arid Northeastern Brazil, Ceará and Piauí, we developed integrated qualitative-quantitative scenarios which show potential developments of

Development of damage control training scenarios of naval ships based on simplified vulnerability analysis results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dong-Ki Park

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Given the growing interest in damage control training for the naval ships and their organizations, expectations for a new concept of training program have also increased. The existing training programs and its concept focus on training crew to be more proficient and skilled so that they can respond better to damage situations, i.e., fires and flooding. This paper suggests a development procedure of damage control training scenarios using the survivability analysis results as a new concept of damage control training programs employing advanced systems such as damage control console, automation system, and kill cards. This approach could help the decision maker not only enhance his or her capability but also improve the reacting capability of crew members for complex situations induced by a weapon hit.

Measuring variability of procedure progression in proceduralized scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Yochan; Park, Jinkyun; Jung, Wondea

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► The VPP measure was developed to quantify how differently operators follow the procedures. ► Sources that cause variability of ways to follow a given procedure were identified. ► The VPP values for the scenarios are positively related to the scenario performance time. ► The VPP measure is meaningful for explaining characteristics of several PSFs. -- Abstract: Various performance shaping factors (PSFs) have been presented to explain the contributors to unsafe acts in a human failure event or predict a human error probability of new human performance. However, because most of these parameters of an HRA depend on the subjective knowledge and experience of HRA analyzers, the results of an HRA insufficiently provide unbiased standards to explain human performance variations or compare collected data with other data from different analyzers. To secure the validity of the HRA results, we propose a quantitative measure, which represents the variability of procedure progression (VPP) in proceduralized scenarios. A VPP measure shows how differently the operators follow the steps of the procedures. This paper introduces the sources of the VPP measure and relevance to PSFs. The assessment method of the VPP measure is also proposed, and the application examples are shown with a comparison of the performance time. Although more empirical studies should be conducted to reveal the relationship between the VPP measure and other PSFs, it is believed that the VPP measure provides evidence to quantitatively evaluate human performance variations and to cross-culturally compare the collected data.

International scenarios of the Venezuelan oil industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reinoso, Felipe; Irsay, Jorge E.

1999-01-01

The times of stability of the energy business, which characterized the 50s and the 60s came to their end in the 70s. From that moment on, new times have become times of quick changes and high uncertainty. In order to minimize the impact of the surprises that the future may bring, and so decrease the managers' decision making risk, many companies use the scenario planning process. The end purpose of scenario planning is the creation of an organization that will adapted to changes, a learning organization, that is able to identify the business environment un knows and to use this knowledge as one of its advantages. The present article shows the scenarios generated for the Venezuelan oil industry's strategic planning exercise for the 1999-2015 period. Theses scenarios are Consensus and Harmony, Regions and Environment, Conflicts and Decadence and Pragmatic Community. It is concluded from them that oil business success would be supported by differentiation as a secure, trusted and low cost producer; early oil and gas opportunities identification; Hemispherical integration and/or bilateral commercial agreements; oil and gas business portfolio diversification; and diversification to state-of-the-art technologies for renewable forms of energy

Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economic estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodríguez, Iván Merino; Álvarez-Velarde, Francisco; Martín-Fuertes, Francisco

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Four fuel cycle scenarios have been analyzed in resources and economic terms. • Scenarios involve Once-Through, Pu burning, and MA transmutation strategies. • No restrictions were found in terms of uranium and plutonium availability. • The best case cost and the impact of their uncertainties to the LCOE were analyzed. - Abstract: Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options (in coherence with PATEROS and CP-ESFR EU projects) have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economic estimates. Scenarios include: (i) the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle, (ii) full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U–Pu MOX fuel, (iii) closed fuel cycle with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet, and (iv) closed fuel cycle with MA transmutation in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS). All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for 200 years, looking for long term equilibrium mass flow achievement. The simulations were made using the TR E VOL code, capable to assess the management of the nuclear mass streams in the scenario as well as economics for the estimation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and other costs. Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (natural and depleted U, and Pu). Additionally, we have found as expected that the FR scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario. The elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires a maximum of 55% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 44 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation) or an average of 28 units of ADS plants (i.e., a peak value of 51 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the main usefulness of the provided economic results is for relative comparison of

Comment on 'Density perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin, Jerome; Peter, Patrick; Pinto-Neto, Nelson; Schwarz, Dominik J.

2003-01-01

In the paper by J. Khoury et al., Phys. Rev. D 66, 046005 (2002), it is argued that the expected spectrum of primordial perturbations should be scale invariant in this scenario. Here we show that, contrary to what is claimed in that paper, the expected spectrum depends on an arbitrary choice of matching variable. As no underlying (microphysical) principle exists at the present time that could lift the arbitrariness, we conclude that the ekpyrotic scenario is not yet a predictive model

Development of ITER 15 MA ELMy H-mode Inductive Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

C. E. Kessel, D. Campbell, Y. Gribov, G. Saibene, G. Ambrosino, T. Casper, M. Cavinato, H. Fujieda, R. Hawryluk, L. D. Horton, A. Kavin, R. Kharyrutdinov, F. Koechl, J. Leuer, A. Loarte, P. J. Lomas, T. Luce, V. Lukash, M. Mattei, I.Nunes, V. Parail, A. Polevoi, A. Portone, R. Sartori, A.C.C. Sips, P. R. Thomas, A. Welander and J. Wesley

2008-01-01

The poloidal field (PF) coil system on ITER, which provides both feedforward and feedback control of plasma position, shape, and current, is a critical element for achieving mission performance. Analysis of PF capabilities has focused on the 15 MA Q = 10 scenario with a 300-500 s flattop burn phase. The operating space available for the 15 MA ELMy H-mode plasma discharges in ITER and upgrades to the PF coils or associated systems to establish confidence that ITER mission objectives can be reached have been identified. Time dependent self-consistent free-boundary calculations were performed to examine the impact of plasma variability, discharge programming, and plasma disturbances. Based on these calculations a new reference scenario was developed based upon a large bore initial plasma, early divertor transition, low level heating in L-mode, and a late H-mode onset. Equilibrium analyses for this scenario indicate that the original PF coil limitations do not allow low li (<0.8) operation or lower flux states, and the flattop burn durations were predicted to be less than the desired 400 s. This finding motivates the expansion of the operating space, considering several upgrade options to the PF coils. Analysis was also carried out to examine the feedback current reserve required in the CS and PF coils during a series of disturbances and a feasibility assessment of the 17 MA scenario was undertaken. Results of the studies show that the new scenario and modified PF system will allow a wide range of 15 MA 300-500 s operation and more limited but finite 17 MA operation

Mars Scenario-Based Visioning: Logistical Optimization of Transportation Architectures

Science.gov (United States)

1999-01-01

The purpose of this conceptual design investigation is to examine transportation forecasts for future human Wu missions to Mars. - Scenario-Based Visioning is used to generate possible future demand projections. These scenarios are then coupled with availability, cost, and capacity parameters for indigenously designed Mars Transfer Vehicles (solar electric, nuclear thermal, and chemical propulsion types) and Earth-to-Orbit launch vehicles (current, future, and indigenous) to provide a cost-conscious dual-phase launch manifest to meet such future demand. A simulator named M-SAT (Mars Scenario Analysis Tool) is developed using this method. This simulation is used to examine three specific transportation scenarios to Mars: a limited "flaus and footprints" mission, a More ambitious scientific expedition similar to an expanded version of the Design Reference Mission from NASA, and a long-term colonization scenario. Initial results from the simulation indicate that chemical propulsion systems might be the architecture of choice for all three scenarios. With this mind, "what if' analyses were performed which indicated that if nuclear production costs were reduced by 30% for the colonization scenario, then the nuclear architecture would have a lower life cycle cost than the chemical. Results indicate that the most cost-effective solution to the Mars transportation problem is to plan for segmented development, this involves development of one vehicle at one opportunity and derivatives of that vehicle at subsequent opportunities.

World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frei, Christoph; Whitney, Rob; Schiffer, Hans-Wilhelm; Rose, Karl; Rieser, Dan A.; Al-Qahtani, Ayed; Thomas, Philip; Turton, Hal; Densing, Martin; Panos, Evangelos; Volkart, Kathrin

2013-01-01

The World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050 is the result of a three-year study conducted by over 60 experts from nearly 30 countries, with modelling provided by the Paul Scherrer Institute. The report assesses two contrasting policy scenarios, the more consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario with a key differentiator being the ability of countries to pass through the Doha Climate Gateway. The WEC scenarios use an explorative approach to assess what is actually happening in the world now, to help gauge what will happen in the future and the real impact of today's choices on tomorrow's energy landscape. Rather than telling policy-makers and senior energy leaders what to do in order to achieve a specific policy goal, the WEC's World Energy Scenarios allow them to test the key assumptions that decision-makers decide to better shape the energy of tomorrow This document includes the French and English versions of the executive summary and the English version of the full report

Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

Science.gov (United States)

Brecha, R.

2008-12-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

Economic consequences assessment for scenarios and actual accidents do the same methods apply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brenot, J.

1991-01-01

Methods for estimating the economic consequences of major technological accidents, and their corresponding computer codes, are briefly presented with emphasis on the basic choices. When applied to hypothetic scenarios, those methods give results that are of interest for risk managers with a decision aiding perspective. Simultaneously the various costs, and the procedures for their estimation are reviewed for some actual accidents (Three Mile Island, Chernobyl,..). These costs are used in a perspective of litigation and compensation. The comparison of the methods used and cost estimates obtained for scenarios and actual accidents shows the points of convergence and discrepancies that are discussed

Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jesus Vera-Aguilera

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice.

The Scenario Planning Paradox

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

2017-01-01

planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

Development scenario for laser fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

1976-01-01

This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power

Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

1999-01-01

The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soerensen, B; Meibom, P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

1999-01-01

The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

Scenarios and innovative systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-11-01

The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

CERN Document Server

Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

2016-01-01

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

Demand scenarios, worldwide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

1996-11-01

Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

Project Icarus: Stakeholder Scenarios for an Interstellar Exploration Program

Science.gov (United States)

Hein, A. M.; Tziolas, A. C.; Osborne, R.

The Project Icarus Study Group's objective is to design a mainly fusion-propelled interstellar probe. The starting point are the results of the Daedalus study, which was conducted by the British Interplanetary Society during the 1970's. As the Daedalus study already indicated, interstellar probes will be the result of a large scale, decade-long development program. To sustain a program over such long periods, the commitment of key stakeholders is vital. Although previous publications identified political and societal preconditions to an interstellar exploration program, there is a lack of more specific scientific and political stakeholder scenarios. This paper develops stakeholder scenarios which allow for a more detailed sustainability assessment of future programs. For this purpose, key stakeholder groups and their needs are identified and scientific and political scenarios derived. Political scenarios are based on patterns of past space programs but unprecedented scenarios are considered as well. Although it is very difficult to sustain an interstellar exploration program, there are scenarios in which this seems to be possible, e.g. the discovery of life within the solar system and on an exoplanet, a global technology development program, and dual-use of technologies for defence and security purposes. This is a submission of the Project Icarus Study Group.

Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liang Chen

Full Text Available This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU, energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI, low carbon scenario (LC and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC. The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

U. S. electricity shortfall: three scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vanderslice, T.A.

1979-01-01

Scenarios in which no nuclear-generating capacity is added between 1981 and 1985 and the goal of doubling coal utilization is only 50% successful show electric power shortfalls over most of the U.S. by 1985, with the industrial central regions the hardest hit. Since conservation alone cannot carry the nation through a transition from oil dependence to coal and nuclear, the author stresses the importance of identifying the consequences of such a shortfall. General Electric's scenarios are projected for shortfalls in energy supply, electric power, and oil and natural gas to determine the effect on gross national product, business investment, production growth, inflation foreign exchange rates, and employment levels. Near-term crises in power plant shortages are indicated by the energy models.

Multi-body simulation of various falling scenarios for determining resulting loads at the prosthesis interface of transfemoral amputees with osseointegrated fixation.

Science.gov (United States)

Welke, Bastian; Schwarze, Michael; Hurschler, Christof; Calliess, Tilman; Seehaus, Frank

2013-07-01

Conventionally, transfemoral amputees are treated with a shaft prosthesis fitted over the residual limb. To improve the quality of life of such patients, in particular those with complications relating to conventional attachment (e.g., skin irritation, stump ulcers, and poor motor-control with short stumps), osseointegrated prosthesis fixation implants have been developed and implanted in a limited population of patients. To assess possible damage to the implant/prosthesis during falling scenarios, the loads in high-risk situations were estimated using a multi-body simulation of motion. Five falling scenarios were identified and performed by healthy volunteer wearing safety equipment. Kinematic data and ground reaction forces were captured as input for the inverse-dynamics-based simulations, from which the forces and moments at a typical implant-prosthesis interface location were computed. The estimated peak loads in all five scenarios were of a magnitude that could lead to bone fracture. The largest peak force observed was 3274 ± 519 N, with an associated resultant moment of 176 ± 55 Nm on the prosthesis-implant interface. A typical femur is prone to fracture under this load, thus illustrating the need for a safety-release element in osseointegrated prosthesis fixation. Copyright © 2013 Orthopaedic Research Society.

Energy scenario analysis Enova-IFE; Energiscenarioanalyser Enova-IFE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosenberg, Eva; Espegren, Kari Aamodt

2009-11-15

Institute for Energy Technology has made a projection of energy use in stationary sector of Norway up to 2050 and by the use of the Norwegian MARKAL model analyzed various scenarios. Total increase demand in stationary sectors by 6 TWh, or 4% to 2020 and by 29 TWh or 16% for 2050, which increase primarily comes in the buildings. Scenarios are analyzed to show the long-term potential given the various operating parameters. An important scenario that is analyzed, the fulfillment of renewable directive. In 2005, the renewable share in Norway about 61%. In the analysis it is assumed that the renewable share to be 75% as of 2020. Implementation of energy efficiency will have a crucial role to increase the renewable share, and efficiency contributes with 26 TWh in the base scenario. What percentage of energy efficiency measures are really implemented will have a great impact on how much renewable electricity to be produced, or how much more bio-energy that must be used, in order to achieve the goal of renewable directive. (AG)

Two contrasted future scenarios for the French agro-food system.

Science.gov (United States)

Billen, Gilles; Le Noë, Julia; Garnier, Josette

2018-10-01

Narratives of two prospective scenarios for the future of French agriculture were elaborated by pushing several trends already acting on the dynamics of the current system to their logical end. The first one pursues the opening and specialization characterizing the long-term evolution of the last 50 years of most French agricultural regions, while the second assumes a shift, already perceptible through weak signals, towards more autonomy at the farm and regional scales, a reconnection of crop and livestock farming and a more frugal human diet. A procedure is proposed to translate these qualitative narratives into a quantitative description of the corresponding nutrient fluxes using the GRAFS (Generalized Representation of Agro-Food Systems) methodology, thus allowing a comprehensive exploration of the agronomical and environmental performance of these two scenarios. The results show that the pursuit of the opening and specialization of French agriculture, even complying with regulations regarding reasoned fertilization, would result in considerable environmental burdens namely in terms of water pollution. The scenario generalizing organic farming practices, reconnection of crop and livestock farming systems and a demitarian human diet makes it possible to meet the future national food demand while still exporting significant amounts of cereals to the international market and ensuring better groundwater quality in most French regions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winkler, Harald, E-mail: Harald.Winkler@uct.ac.z [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

2009-11-15

Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.

About the Need of Combining Power Market and Power Grid Model Results for Future Energy System Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Mende, Denis; Böttger, Diana; Löwer, Lothar; Becker, Holger; Akbulut, Alev; Stock, Sebastian

2018-02-01

The European power grid infrastructure faces various challenges due to the expansion of renewable energy sources (RES). To conduct investigations on interactions between power generation and the power grid, models for the power market as well as for the power grid are necessary. This paper describes the basic functionalities and working principles of both types of models as well as steps to couple power market results and the power grid model. The combination of these models is beneficial in terms of gaining realistic power flow scenarios in the grid model and of being able to pass back results of the power flow and restrictions to the market model. Focus is laid on the power grid model and possible application examples like algorithms in grid analysis, operation and dynamic equipment modelling.

ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

2014-01-01

This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-01

A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this &apos

Search for compressed SUSY scenarios with the ATLAS detector

CERN Document Server

Maurer, Julien; The ATLAS collaboration

2017-01-01

Scenarios where multiple SUSY states are nearly degenerate in mass produce soft decay products, and they represent an experimental challenge for ATLAS. This talk presents recent results of analyses explicitly targeting such “compressed” scenarios with a variety of experimental techniques. All results make use of proton-proton collisions collected at a centre of mass of 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector.

Correlated wind-power production and electric load scenarios for investment decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baringo, L.; Conejo, A.J.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Investment models require an accurate representation of the involved uncertainty. ► Demand and wind power production are correlated and uncertain parameters. ► Two methodologies are provided to represent uncertainty and correlation. ► An accurate uncertainty representation is crucial to get optimal results. -- Abstract: Stochastic programming constitutes a useful tool to address investment problems. This technique represents uncertain input data using a set of scenarios, which should accurately describe the involved uncertainty. In this paper, we propose two alternative methodologies to efficiently generate electric load and wind-power production scenarios, which are used as input data for investment problems. The two proposed methodologies are based on the load- and wind-duration curves and on the K-means clustering technique, and allow representing the uncertainty of and the correlation between electric load and wind-power production. A case study pertaining to wind-power investment is used to show the interest of the proposed methodologies and to illustrate how the selection of scenarios has a significant impact on investment decisions.

Quantifying differences between computational results and measurements in the case of a large-scale well-confined fire scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Audouin, L.; Chandra, L.; Consalvi, J.-L.; Gay, L.; Gorza, E.; Hohm, V.; Hostikka, S.; Ito, T.; Klein-Hessling, W.; Lallemand, C.; Magnusson, T.; Noterman, N.; Park, J.S.; Peco, J.; Rigollet, L.; Suard, S.; Van-Hees, P.

2011-01-01

Research Highlights: → We performed a numerical benchmark in the framework of an OECD experimental program of a pool fire in a well-confined compartment. → The benchmark involves 17 participants using 8 fire models, 3 CFD and 5 zone models. → We investigated the capabilities of validation metrics for a real large-scale fire. → Six quantities were compared during the whole fire duration. → It is important to consider more than one metric for the validation process. - Abstract: The objective of this work was to quantify comparisons between several computational results and measurements performed during a pool fire scenario in a well-confined compartment. This collaborative work was initiated under the framework of the OECD fire research program and involves the most frequently used fire models in the fire community, including field and zone models. The experimental scenario was conducted at the French Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN) and deals with a full-scale liquid pool fire in a confined and mechanically ventilated compartment representative for nuclear plants. The practical use of different metric operators and their ability to report the capabilities of fire models are presented. The quantitative comparisons between measurements and numerical results obtained from 'open' calculations concern six important quantities from a safety viewpoint: gas temperature, oxygen concentration, wall temperature, total heat flux, compartment pressure and ventilation flow rate during the whole fire duration. The results indicate that it is important to use more than one metric for the validation process in order to get information on the uncertainties associated with different aspects of fire safety.

Effects of climate change adaptation scenarios on perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events

Science.gov (United States)

Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

2012-04-01

Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, like mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This study addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to reproduce spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century under different emissions scenarios? (3) How would perceived drought characteristics evolve under theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-year multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France (Vidal et al., 2010). Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI), respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well reproduced by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century under all considered emissions scenarios, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals. The two scenarios differ by the way the transient adaptation is performed for a given date in the future, with reference to the normals over either the previous 30-year window ("retrospective

Dissolved oxygen analysis, TMDL model comparison, and particulate matter shunting—Preliminary results from three model scenarios for the Klamath River upstream of Keno Dam, Oregon

Science.gov (United States)

Sullivan, Annett B.; Rounds, Stewart A.; Deas, Michael L.; Sogutlugil, I. Ertugrul

2012-01-01

standards do not specify whether the numeric criteria are based on depth-averaged dissolved oxygen concentration; this was an interpretation of the standards rule by the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (ODEQ). In this study, both depth-averaged and volume-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations were calculated from model output. Results showed that modeled depth-averaged concentrations typically were lower than volume-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations because depth-averaging gives a higher weight to small volume areas near the channel bottom that often have lower dissolved oxygen concentrations. Results from model scenarios in this study are reported using volume-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations. * Under all scenarios analyzed, violations of the dissolved oxygen standard occurred most often in summer. Of the three dissolved oxygen criteria that must be met, the 30-day standard was violated most frequently. Under the base case (current conditions), fewer violations occurred in the upstream part of the reach. More violations occurred in the down-stream direction, due in part to oxygen demand from the decay of algae and organic matter from Link River and other inflows. * A condition in which Upper Klamath Lake and its Link River outflow achieved Upper Klamath Lake TMDL water-quality targets was most effective in reducing the number of violations of the dissolved oxygen standard in the Link River to Keno Dam reach of the Klamath River. The condition in which point and nonpoint sources within the Link River to Keno Dam reach met Klamath River TMDL allocations had no effect on dissolved oxygen compliance in some locations and a small effect in others under current conditions. On the other hand, meeting TMDL allocations for nonpoint and point sources was predicted to be important in meeting dissolved oxygen criteria when Upper Klamath Lake and Link River also met Upper Klamath TMDL water-quality targets. * The location of greatest dissolved oxygen

Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

2014-08-01

China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Long-term scenarios and strategies for the deployment of renewable energies in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pregger, Thomas; Nitsch, Joachim; Naegler, Tobias

2013-01-01

The transformation of the energy supply in Germany (the “Energiewende”) as described in the German Federal government’s ‘Energy Concept’ (Energiekonzept, 2010) is based on a political consensus about long-term targets for energy efficiency and renewable energies. The aim of this article is to present a consistent scenario for this transformation process reflecting the long-term implementation of renewable energies and the possible future structure of the German energy system as a whole. Structural and economic effects of this development are derived and discussed. It summarizes results of scenario analyses done by the department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment of the German Aerospace Center as part of a three-year research project for the German Federal Ministry for the Environment. The underlying study provides a detailed data base reflecting a long-term roadmap for the energy system transformation in Germany. The scenarios show that the policy targets are consistent and can be achieved, if appropriate policy measures are to be implemented. The economic analysis shows the amount of investments and the strong market dynamics required for new generation technologies but also the huge economic benefits that can result from this development path in terms of fuel cost savings and lower fuel imports. - Highlights: • Long-term scenario for the German energy system according to the political targets. • Comparison of three variants with differing developments of the fleets of vehicles. • Analysis of economic effects: investments, generation and differential costs. • Importance of strategies in the sectors electricity, heat, and transportation. • Recommended measures for the successful implementation of the CO 2 reductions

Atmospheric composition calculations for evaluation of climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krol, M.S.; Woerd, H.J. van der

1994-01-01

The future radiative forcing by non-CO 2 greenhouse gases depends strongly on the behavior of the OH radical, which represents the primary sink for CH 4 , CO and H(C)FCs in the atmosphere. The authors present a simple model to describe the changes in the concentration of the main greenhouse gases. The focus is on the description of the atmospheric chemistry of OH and the important tropospheric oxidant and greenhouse gas O 3 . Changes in the equilibrium concentrations of these oxidants will change the trends in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, especially CH 4 . The model is applied to the 1992 IPCC emissions scenarios, as well as to an IMAGE 2.0 scenario, based on 'Conventional Wisdom' assumptions. The following major results are found: for the central estimate of emissions assuming no additional policies (IS92a), the concentration of CH 4 keeps rising at rates similar to those observed over the last decades; results for the other IS92 scenarios range from stabilization early in the next century (IS92d) to an ever increasing rate of accumulation of CH 4 in the atmosphere (IS92f), even though these scenarios assume no policy interventions. The IMAGE 2.0 Conventional Wisdom scenario is similar to IS92a before the year 2025; afterwards the expansion of agricultural area significantly decreases the emissions of hydrocarbons and NO x from savanna burning, not represented in the IS92 scenarios. This leads to stable levels of atmospheric CH 4 after 2025

Scenario-based strategizing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

2017-01-01

For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

Winter precipitation and cyclones in the Mediterranean region: future climate scenarios in a regional simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Lionello

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Future climate projections show higher/lower winter (Dec-Jan-Feb precipitation in the northern/southern Mediterranean region than in present climate conditions. This paper analyzes the results of regional model simulations of the A2 and B2 scenarios, which confirm this opposite precipitation change and link it to the change of cyclone activity. The increase of the winter cyclone activity in future climate scenarios over western Europe is responsible for the larger precipitation at the northern coast of the basin, though the bulk of the change is located outside the Mediterranean region. The reduction of cyclone activity inside the Mediterranean region in future scenarios is responsible for the lower precipitation at the southern and eastern Mediterranean coast.

Hamilton-Jacobi formalism to warm inflationary scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Sayar, K.; Mohammadi, A.; Akhtari, L.; Saaidi, Kh.

2017-01-01

The Hamilton-Jacobi formalism as a powerful method is being utilized to reconsider the warm inflationary scenario, where the scalar field as the main component driving inflation interacts with other fields. Separating the context into strong and weak dissipative regimes, the goal is followed for two popular functions of Γ . Applying slow-rolling approximation, the required perturbation parameters are extracted and, by comparing to the latest Planck data, the free parameters are restricted. The possibility of producing an acceptable inflation is studied where the result shows that for all cases the model could successfully suggest the amplitude of scalar perturbation, scalar spectral index, its running, and the tensor-to-scalar ratio.

40 Years of Shell Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-02-15

Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

The role of the uncertainty in assessing future scenarios of water shortage in alluvial aquifers

Science.gov (United States)

Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Guyennon, Nicolas; Preziosi, Elisabetta

2015-04-01

sustainability. To this goal, three GCMs (ECHAM5, PCM and CCSM3) and two downscaling methods (Linear Rescaling and Quantile Mapping) are used to generate future scenarios of precipitation and temperature; the Thornthwaite-Mather soil water balance model is used to estimate the recharge to the aquifer; the evolution in time of the piezometric heads is estimated through a numerical model developed using the MODFLOW2005 code. Finally, different scenarios of water demand are applied. Final results show that the uncertainty due to the groundwater flow model calibration/validation in steady-state conditions is comparable to that arising from the whole processing chain from the GCM choice to the effective infiltration estimates. Simulations in transient conditions show the high impact of the uncertainty related to the calibration of the storage coefficient, that significantly drives the resilience of the system, thus the ability of the aquifer to sustain the demand during the periods of prolonged drought.

Credibilistic multi-period portfolio optimization based on scenario tree

Science.gov (United States)

Mohebbi, Negin; Najafi, Amir Abbas

2018-02-01

In this paper, we consider a multi-period fuzzy portfolio optimization model with considering transaction costs and the possibility of risk-free investment. We formulate a bi-objective mean-VaR portfolio selection model based on the integration of fuzzy credibility theory and scenario tree in order to dealing with the markets uncertainty. The scenario tree is also a proper method for modeling multi-period portfolio problems since the length and continuity of their horizon. We take the return and risk as well cardinality, threshold, class, and liquidity constraints into consideration for further compliance of the model with reality. Then, an interactive dynamic programming method, which is based on a two-phase fuzzy interactive approach, is employed to solve the proposed model. In order to verify the proposed model, we present an empirical application in NYSE under different circumstances. The results show that the consideration of data uncertainty and other real-world assumptions lead to more practical and efficient solutions.

Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

2008-01-01

Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

Cosmological Analysis of Dynamical Chern-Simons Modified Gravity via Dark Energy Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdul Jawad

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to study the cosmological evolution of the universe in the framework of dynamical Chern-Simons modified gravity. We take pilgrim dark energy model with Hubble and event horizons in interacting scenario with cold dark matter. For this scenario, we discuss cosmological parameters such as Hubble and equation of state and cosmological plane like ωϑ-ωϑ′ and squared speed of sound. It is found that Hubble parameter approaches the ranges 75-0.5+0.5 (for u=2 and (74, 74.30 (for u=1,-1,-2 for Hubble horizon pilgrim dark energy. It implies the ranges 74.80-0.005+0.005 (for u=2 and (73.4, 74 (for u=-2 for event horizon pilgrim dark energy. The equation of state parameter provides consistent ranges with different observational schemes. Also, ωϑ-ωϑ′ planes lie in the range (ωϑ=-1.13-0.25+0.24,ωϑ′<1.32. The squared speed of sound shows stability for all present models in the present scenario. We would like to mention here that our results of various cosmological parameters show consistency with different observational data like Planck, WP, BAO, H0, SNLS, and WMAP.

Scenarios for remote gas production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

2009-01-01

The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

Nitrous Oxides Ozone Destructiveness Under Different Climate Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Kanter, David R.; McDermid, Sonali P.

2016-01-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance as well as a key component of the nitrogen cascade. While emissions scenarios indicating the range of N2O's potential future contributions to radiative forcing are widely available, the impact of these emissions scenarios on future stratospheric ozone depletion is less clear. This is because N2O's ozone destructiveness is partially dependent on tropospheric warming, which affects ozone depletion rates in the stratosphere. Consequently, in order to understand the possible range of stratospheric ozone depletion that N2O could cause over the 21st century, it is important to decouple the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and compare different emissions trajectories for individual substances (e.g. business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions versus low emissions of N2O). This study is the first to follow such an approach, running a series of experiments using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences ModelE2 atmospheric sub-model. We anticipate our results to show that stratospheric ozone depletion will be highest in a scenario where CO2 emissions reductions are prioritized over N2O reductions, as this would constrain ozone recovery while doing little to limit stratospheric NOx levels (the breakdown product of N2O that destroys stratospheric ozone). This could not only delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, but might also prevent a return to pre-1980 global average ozone concentrations, a key goal of the international ozone regime. Accordingly, we think this will highlight the importance of reducing emissions of all major greenhouse gas emissions, including N2O, and not just a singular policy focus on CO2.

Economic effects of restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions. Scenarios for Sweden to 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-02-01

Simulations have been performed of the effect of carbon dioxide-restrictions related to the Kyoto-protocol on the Swedish economy. Using the Environmental Medium Term Economic model three scenarios have been simulated where Sweden: 1. increases the CO 2 emissions by 4%; 2. decreases the CO 2 emissions by 2%; 3. decreases the CO 2 emissions by 8% in year 2010 compared to year 1990. In a fourth scenario, a tax of 0.60 SEK (about 0.06 USD) is imposed on each emitted kg CO 2 . Results of the simulations show that certain structure-changes take place in the economy, but that the GDP growth will not be influenced in any larger degree (-0.3, -0.4, -0.6 and -0.1 % compared to the reference scenario for 1997-2010 resp.). The refinery sector will be most heavily influenced, with a production reduction of 4 to 10 %

Syria and Iran: what next? Three potential scenarios; Syrie, Iran: et maintenant? Trois scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tertrais, Bruno [Fondation pour la recherche strategique, 4 bis rue des Patures 75016 Paris (France)

2013-10-15

Now that the United Nations resolution has been voted, the most complicated task begins: ensuring that Syria entirely and definitively gets rid of its chemical arsenal, which unfortunately has every chance of enduring. In this respect three scenarios are possible, each of which would have different repercussions for the region, notably regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, which is now being considered in a new light following Hassan Rohani's charm offensive. Yet, these consequences could also have a profound and lasting effect on the relationship between the United States and its allies. In the first scenario the agreement with Syria will be applied in a satisfactory manner, and could serve as a positive example to Iran, which might be more inclined to signing a nuclear deal. To date, Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Guide, has been wary of the ongoing negotiations, considering that it is impossible to trust the Western States whose sole objective is the downfall of the Iranian regime. Russia, buoyed by its new role in the region, would contribute in a more constructive manner to the resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue... Care must be taken, however, as Iran could just as well conclude as a result of the events of the summer of 2013, particularly from U.S. procrastination, that Western States are not willing to use force in the Middle East, and thus on the contrary draw out the negotiations without fearing the possibility of a U.S. strike. According to the second scenario, Syria will not implement the agreement, the crisis will be renewed, and will end with a Western strike, most probably without a U.N. mandate. This scenario would boost the confidence of U.S. allies in the region, who have a tendency to doubt the United States' determination to defend them. This could be seen as a warning to Iran, but the lessons that Iran would take from this scenario would undoubtedly depend on the balance of power in Tehran at the time: the moderates would push for a deal to avoid

Search for compressed SUSY scenarios with the ATLAS detector

CERN Document Server

Maurer, Julien; The ATLAS collaboration

2017-01-01

Scenarios where multiple SUSY states are nearly degenerate in mass produce soft decay products, and they represent an experimental challenge for ATLAS. This contribution presented recent results of analyses explicitly targeting such ``compressed'' scenarios with a variety of experimental techniques. All results made use of proton-proton collisions collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC.

Gun Shows and Gun Violence: Fatally Flawed Study Yields Misleading Results

Science.gov (United States)

Hemenway, David; Webster, Daniel; Pierce, Glenn; Braga, Anthony A.

2010-01-01

A widely publicized but unpublished study of the relationship between gun shows and gun violence is being cited in debates about the regulation of gun shows and gun commerce. We believe the study is fatally flawed. A working paper entitled “The Effect of Gun Shows on Gun-Related Deaths: Evidence from California and Texas” outlined this study, which found no association between gun shows and gun-related deaths. We believe the study reflects a limited understanding of gun shows and gun markets and is not statistically powered to detect even an implausibly large effect of gun shows on gun violence. In addition, the research contains serious ascertainment and classification errors, produces results that are sensitive to minor specification changes in key variables and in some cases have no face validity, and is contradicted by 1 of its own authors’ prior research. The study should not be used as evidence in formulating gun policy. PMID:20724672

Methodological review of UK and international low carbon scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hughes, Nick; Strachan, Neil

2010-01-01

Scenarios have a long history in business, politics and military planning, as a tool for strategic planning to inform protective, proactive or consensus-based decision making in the face of uncertain futures. Recent years have seen a growth in scenarios for assessing the implications of low carbon futures, but relatively little work has linked these energy scenarios to the broader literature on scenario development. This paper undertakes a methodological review of a selection of UK and international low carbon scenario studies, using a typology of 'trend based', 'technical feasibility' and 'modelling' studies. Dominant methodologies in such studies have been the 2x2 axis and the 'back-casting' approach. Strengths of the studies reviewed include technological detail, and identification of key economic and social constraints. Weaknesses include the over-reliance on constructs such as exogenous emissions constraints, and high level trends, which diminish the ability to understand how the various future scenarios could be brought about or avoided. This is compounded by the lack of depiction of specific system actors; the tendency to abstract policy from the scenarios; and the resulting failure to consider policy, technology and behaviour in an iterative, 'co-evolving' fashion.

Environmental and sanitary evaluation of electro-nuclear sites: methodological research and application to prospective scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-12-01

In the framework of the radioactive wastes disposal of the law of 1991, an exchange forum constituted by ANDRA, CEA, COGEMA, EdF, Framatome-ANP and IRSN implemented an environmental and sanitary evaluation of the different methods of radioactive wastes management. This report presents the six studies scenarios, the proposed methodology, the application to the six scenarios and the analysis of the results which showed the efficiency of the different recycling options towards the electronuclear cycle impacts limitation, and a technical conclusion illustrated by improvement possibilities of the methodology. (A.L.B.)

Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

2006-12-01

The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

Consumptive water footprint and virtual water trade scenarios for China - With a focus on crop production, consumption and trade.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuo, La; Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2016-09-01

The study assesses green and blue water footprints (WFs) and virtual water (VW) trade in China under alternative scenarios for 2030 and 2050, with a focus on crop production, consumption and trade. We consider five driving factors of change: climate, harvested crop area, technology, diet, and population. Four scenarios (S1-S4) are constructed by making use of three of IPCC's shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-SSP3) and two of IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and taking 2005 as the baseline year. Results show that, across the four scenarios and for most crops, the green and blue WFs per tonne will decrease compared to the baseline year, due to the projected crop yield increase, which is driven by the higher precipitation and CO2 concentration under the two RCPs and the foreseen uptake of better technology. The WF per capita related to food consumption decreases in all scenarios. Changing to the less-meat diet can generate a reduction in the WF of food consumption of 44% by 2050. In all scenarios, as a result of the projected increase in crop yields and thus overall growth in crop production, China will reverse its role from net VW importer to net VW exporter. However, China will remain a big net VW importer related to soybean, which accounts for 5% of the WF of Chinese food consumption (in S1) by 2050. All scenarios show that China could attain a high degree of food self-sufficiency while simultaneously reducing water consumption in agriculture. However, the premise of realizing the presented scenarios is smart water and cropland management, effective and coherent policies on water, agriculture and infrastructure, and, as in scenario S1, a shift to a diet containing less meat. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study on the FBR cycle introduction scenario. 4. Evaluation of the FBR cycle introduction scenario from the viewpoints of the fuel cycle requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ono, Kiyoshi; Shiotani, Hiroki; Hirao, Kazunori

2003-07-01

This report is intended to explain the outline of the scenario studies on FBR (Fast Breeder Reactor) cycle introduction. Recently, people value the reduction of environmental impact in addition to the recycle of energy resources and the energy security in these scenario studies. This report summarizes the analysis about the necessity of plutonium recycling in LWR (Light water Reactor) from short-term view and about the necessity of FBR cycle introduction from a long-term view in Japan, by comparing 'FBR scenario' with 'LWR once-through scenario' and 'Pu recycle in LWR scenario', from the viewpoints of cumulative uranium demand, spent fuel storage, radioactive waste arising, etc. It becomes clear that the plutonium recycling in LWR has a good effect on the reduction of spent fuel storage and the cumulative natural uranium demand before FBR cycle introduction, from short-term view (20-30 years). On the other hand, this analysis also shows that there is much effect of FBR deployment not only on saving amount of uranium use and energy security but also on reduction of high-level radioactive waste (spent fuels and vitrified waste) and minor actinide arising, from long-term view (100-200 years). (author)

Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies; Etude detaillee des scenarios de transmutation faisant appel aux technologies actuelles pour les reacteurs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2003-07-01

This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zucchetti, M.; Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P.

1998-01-01

Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zucchetti, M. [European Commission, JRC, Institute for Advanced Material, Ispra, Vatican City State, Holy See (Italy); Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P. [Energetics Dept., Polytechnic of Turin (Italy)

1998-07-01

Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

Exposure scenarios for workers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

2007-01-01

The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

Hydrological scenarios of future seasonal runoff distribution in Central Slovakia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hlavcova, K; Szolgay, J; Kohnova, S; Balint, G

2008-01-01

The hydrological scenarios of future seasonal distributions of runoff in the upper Hron River basin, which was chosen as a representative mountainous region in Central Slovakia, were evaluated. Changes in the future climate were expressed by three different climate change scenarios developed within the framework of the Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment Project (CECILIA). The climate change scenarios were constructed using the pattern scaling method from the outputs of transient simulations made by 3 GCMs - ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM2 and NCAR DOE-PCM. A conceptual hydrological balance model calibrated with data from the period 1971-2000 was used for modelling changes in runoff with monthly time steps. The runoff change scenarios for the selected basin in the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2100 show changes in the seasonal runoff distribution.

Development of a new methodology for the creation of water temperature scenarios using frequency analysis tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Val, Jonatan; Pino, María Rosa; Chinarro, David

2018-03-15

Thermal quality in river ecosystems is a fundamental property for the development of biological processes and many of the human activities linked to the aquatic environment. In the future, this property is going to be threatened due to global change impacts, and basin managers will need useful tools to evaluate these impacts. Currently, future projections in temperature modelling are based on the historical data for air and water temperatures, and the relationship with past temperature scenarios; however, this represents a problem when evaluating future scenarios with new thermal impacts. Here, we analysed the thermal impacts produced by several human activities, and linked them with the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanism from natural systems measured with frequency analysis tools (wavelet coherence). Once this relationship has been established we develop a new methodology for simulating different thermal impacts scenarios in order to project them into future. Finally, we validate this methodology using a site that changed its thermal quality during the studied period due to human impacts. Results showed a high correlation (r 2 =0.84) between the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanisms and the quantified human impacts, obtaining 3 thermal impact scenarios. Furthermore, the graphic representation of these thermal scenarios with its wavelet coherence spectrums showed the impacts of an extreme drought period and the agricultural management. The inter-conversion between the scenarios gave high morphological similarities in the obtained wavelet coherence spectrums, and the validation process clearly showed high efficiency of the developed model against old methodologies when comparing with Nash-Stucliffe criterion. Although there is need for further investigation with different climatic and anthropic management conditions, the developed frequency models could be useful in decision-making processes by managers when faced with future global

Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

2002-01-01

This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

1999-01-01

This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

2009-01-01

Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

Swedish long-term low carbon scenario - Exploratory study on opportunities and barriers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gode, Jenny; Saernholm, Erik; Zetterberg, Lars; Arnell, Jenny; Zetterberg, Therese

2010-12-15

In 2009, the Swedish government proposed a vision of reaching zero net emissions of greenhouse gases in the year 2050. However, there are few details on concrete actions after 2020. In the light of the long investment cycles associated with energy, housing, transport infrastructure and heavy industry, we believe that the society now needs to start identifying possible pathways for reaching this vision. The pathways also need to be investigated in terms of their feasibility and consequences. The aim of our study has been to develop and elaborate on one potential future energy scenario where Sweden minimises the use of fossil fuels in 2050 and to identify opportunities and barriers. The scenario we present is one of several possible scenarios and is obviously not a forecast. Our purpose is not to show a likely development, but rather to illustrate, by example, a society that is largely independent of fossil fuels and what would be required to get there. In a next step, more detailed scenarios as well as accurate impact assessments are needed. For example, the impact of high bioenergy utilisation needs to be carefully examined. The results also show several cross-sectoral measures and/or effects that need further study. There is also a need for thorough cost analyses as well as analyses of what is required to implement these measures in practice. We have analysed potential fossil fuel reductions in the sectors industry, residential/service, transports and energy conversion. For these sectors, systematic investigations have been made on measures for replacing fossil fuels, improving energy efficiency and applying new technologies and industrial processes. Our scenario is to a great extent based on existing technologies. In addition to sector specific measures, we have applied cross-sectoral measures such as using industrial surplus heat in the residential sector or forest residues for producing heat and power. Furthermore, we have assumed a system change in

The formation mechanism of 4179 Toutatis' elongated bi-lobed structure in a close Earth encounter scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Shoucun; Ji, Jianghui; Richardson, Derek C.; Zhao, Yuhui; Zhang, Yun

2018-04-01

The optical images of near-Earth asteroid 4179 Toutatis acquired by Chang'e-2 spacecraft show that Toutatis has an elongated contact binary configuration, with the contact point located along the long axis. We speculate that such configuration may have resulted from a low-speed impact between two components. In this work, we performed a series of numerical simulations and compared the results with the optical images, to examine the mechanism and better understand the formation of Toutatis. Herein we propose an scenario that an assumed separated binary precursor could undergo a close encounter with Earth, leading to an impact between the primary and secondary, and the elongation is caused by Earth's tide. The precursor is assumed to be a doubly synchronous binary with a semi-major axis of 4 Rp (radius of primary) and the two components are represented as spherical cohesionless self-gravitating granular aggregates. The mutual orbits are simulated in a Monte Carlo routine to provide appropriate parameters for our N-body simulations of impact and tidal distortion. We employ the pkdgrav package with a soft-sphere discrete element method (SSDEM) to explore the entire scenarios. The results show that contact binary configurations are natural outcomes under this scenario, whereas the shape of the primary is almost not affected by the impact of the secondary. However, our simulations further provide an elongated contact binary configuration best-matching to the shape of Toutatis at an approaching distance rp = 1.4 ˜ 1.5 Re (Earth radius), indicative of a likely formation scenario for configurations of Toutatis-like elongated contact binaries.

Assessing groundwater pollution hazard changes under different socio-economic and environmental scenarios in an agricultural watershed

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lima, M. Lourdes, E-mail: mlima@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina); Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) (Argentina); Romanelli, Asunción, E-mail: aromanel@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina); Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras (IIMyC), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) (Argentina); Massone, Héctor E., E-mail: hmassone@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina)

2015-10-15

This paper proposes a modeling approach for assessing changes in groundwater pollution hazard under two different socio-economic and environmental scenarios: The first one considers an exponential growth of agriculture land-use (Relegated Sustainability), while the other deals with regional economic growth, taking into account, the restrictions put on natural resources use (Sustainability Reforms). The recent (2011) and forecasted (2030) groundwater pollution hazard is evaluated based on hydrogeological parameters and, the impact of land-use changes in the groundwater system, coupling together a land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW), as inputs to a decision system support (EMDS). The Dulce Stream Watershed (Pampa Plain, Argentina) was chosen to test the usefulness and utility of this proposed method. It includes a high level of agricultural activities, significant local extraction of groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation and extensive available data regarding aquifer features. The Relegated Sustainability Scenario showed a negative change in the aquifer system, increasing (+ 20%; high–very high classes) the contribution to groundwater pollution hazard throughout the watershed. On the other hand, the Sustainability Reforms Scenario displayed more balanced land-use changes with a trend towards sustainability, therefore proposing a more acceptable change in the aquifer system for 2030 with a possible 2% increase (high–very high classes) in groundwater pollution hazard. Results in the recent scenario (2011) showed that 54% of Dulce Stream Watershed still shows a moderate to a very low contribution to groundwater pollution hazard (mainly in the lower area). Therefore, from the point of view of natural resource management, this is a positive aspect, offering possibilities for intervention in order to prevent deterioration and protect this aquifer system. However, since it is quite possible that this aquifer status

Life cycle assessment of integrated waste management systems for alternative legacy scenarios of the London Olympic Park

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parkes, Olga, E-mail: o.parkes@ucl.ac.uk; Lettieri, Paola, E-mail: p.lettieri@ucl.ac.uk; Bogle, I. David L.

2015-06-15

Highlights: • Application of LCA in planning integrated waste management systems. • Environmental valuation of 3 legacy scenarios for the Olympic Park. • Hot-spot analysis highlights the importance of energy and materials recovery. • Most environmental savings are achieved through materials recycling. • Sensitivity analysis shows importance of waste composition and recycling rates. - Abstract: This paper presents the results of the life cycle assessment (LCA) of 10 integrated waste management systems (IWMSs) for 3 potential post-event site design scenarios of the London Olympic Park. The aim of the LCA study is to evaluate direct and indirect emissions resulting from various treatment options of municipal solid waste (MSW) annually generated on site together with avoided emissions resulting from energy, materials and nutrients recovery. IWMSs are modelled using GaBi v6.0 Product Sustainability software and results are presented based on the CML (v.Nov-10) characterisation method. The results show that IWMSs with advanced thermal treatment (ATT) and incineration with energy recovery have the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP) than IWMSs where landfill is the primary waste treatment process. This is due to higher direct emissions and lower avoided emissions from the landfill process compared to the emissions from the thermal treatment processes. LCA results demonstrate that significant environmental savings are achieved through substitution of virgin materials with recycled ones. The results of the sensitivity analysis carried out for IWMS 1 shows that increasing recycling rate by 5%, 10% and 15% compared to the baseline scenario can reduce GWP by 8%, 17% and 25% respectively. Sensitivity analysis also shows how changes in waste composition affect the overall result of the system. The outcomes of such assessments provide decision-makers with fundamental information regarding the environmental impacts of different waste treatment options necessary for

Energy policy on shaky ground? A study of CCS-scenarios

OpenAIRE

Bryngelsson, Mårten; Hansson, Anders

2009-01-01

Scenarios play an important role for the societal acceptance of CCS. This paper looks into influential reports containing CCS scenarios and analyses results, key assumptions and drivers for CCS' deployment. Significant uncertainties regarding CCS' development were in several cases excluded or marginalized. Despite these shortcomings, scenarios support a massive deployment of CCS and reflect an undivided optimism. If CCS would fail to meet the high expectations a backlash could follow. Indicat...

Implementing the EMF 9 gas trade scenarios and interpreting the results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowse, J.

1989-01-01

Detailed description of the model employed appears in Rowse (1986) and the Appendix of Rowse (1987). Only the salient features are discussed here, along with the modifications carried out for the EMF scenarios and certain specific data and assumptions important for understanding the empirical results. The nonlinear programming model has seven Canadian regions, pipeline links to three US regions, twenty-five three-year time periods representing 1986-2060, and perfect foresight in allocating gas to domestic and export regions. It determines equilibrium Canadian consumption levels, Canadian supplies and exports to the US over this time frame by solving for equilibrium prices. Figure 1 indicates the regional breakdown employed, with the principal supply regions lying in Western Canada. Ontario is the principal consuming region in Canada. Prospective supplies and their locations are also indicated in Figure 1. All producing provinces of Western Canada have existing and prospective conventional supplies of gas, while prospective nonconventional supplies are confied to Alberta. Nonconventional or Deep Basin supplies are assumed available only by the mid-1990's at the earliest because they have not previously been commercially produced. Prospective supplies are also assumed available from the Mackenzie Delta/Beaufort Sea area - henceforth simply Delta - but only by the mid-1990's as well due to the lead time necessary for pipeline construction and for industry confidence in the financial viability of megaprojects to recover. Delta gas is shown as a prospective Alberta source because, if developed, it will likely be pipelined south to connect with the existing transportation network in Alberta. Both nonconventional gas and Delta gas are more costly than future conventional gas supplies but the latter can only be introduced gradually over time because of constraints on gas finding rates and expansion of the domestic drilling rig fleet

Electric cable insulation pyrolysis and ignition resulting from potential hydrogen burn scenarios for nuclear containment buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berlad, A.L.; Jaung, R.; Pratt, W.T.

1982-01-01

Electric cable insulation in nuclear containment buildings may participate in pyrolysis and combustion processes engendered by hydrogen burn phenomena. This paper examines these pyrolysis/ignition processes of those polymeric materials present in the electric cable insulation and their possible relation to hydrogen burn scenarios

The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chai, W.T, E-mail: wtchai@ipp.ac.cn [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Xiao, B.J [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R. [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China)

2016-11-15

Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chai, W.T; Xiao, B.J; Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

Energy scenarios for New Zealand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

1977-10-15

Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

An environmentally sustainable transport system in Sweden. A scenario study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brokking, P.; Emmelin, L.; Engstroem, M-G.; Nilsson, Jan-Evert; Eriksson, Gunnar; Wikberg, O.

1997-02-01

This is a short version of a scenario study concerning the possibilities to reach an Environmentally Sustainable Transport system in Sweden in a perspective of 30 years. The aim of the scenario study has been to describe one of several possible paths from today`s transport system to an environmentally adopted one. However, this does not imply that the task is to predict how such a transformation can be accomplished. The aim is rather to illustrate what such transformation require in the form of political decisions. The transformation of the transport system in to an environmentally adopted one, is primarily treated as a political problem, and a political perspective has accordingly been chosen for the study. In this English version of the scenario, the carbon dioxide problem is used to illuminate the many conflicts in goals and other problem that will attend an environmental adoption of the Swedish transport system, and to highlight the analytical points of departure for the scenario study. The analysis shows that it is possible to reach the national environmental goals that characterise, with given definitions, an environmentally sustainable transport system. However, this implies many severe political decisions over a long period of time, which in turn, implies a long term national consensus about the importance to reach the overall goal. Other results the scenario points out, is the risk that a policy focused on one sector leads to `solving` a problem by moving it outside systems limitations, and the limitations on a national environmental policy: Being able to count on assistance from other countries through an environmental adoption of the transport system in the European Union or globally, would drastically facilitate the environmental adoption of the Swedish transport system, through, among other things, a more rapid technological development. This indicates the necessity of promoting issues involving transportation and the environment in international

3 Investment Scenarios for Fast Reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shoai Tehrani, Bianka; Da Costa, Pascal

2013-01-01

Results: • 4 families of scenarios: – In each of them, 3 options for national nuclear policy → 12 scenarios; – 3 favorable to FRs: - “climate constraint” with strong pro-nuclear policy - “climate constraint” with moderate pro-nuclear policy - “totally green” with strong pro-nuclear policy. • Business As Usual is not favorable to Fast Reactors; Fast reactors deployment: - Needs strong climate policy - Is viable in case of important renewable progress as long as climate policy is strong. International perspective: • Results are valid for Europe, other drivers being likely to be more important in other countries : high growth and demand (Asia); • With strong contrasts between European countries. Further research: • Finer modeling of drivers with unclear influence (clustered and excluded variables): Influence of weak signals

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

Adapting for uncertainty : a scenario analysis of U.S. technology energy futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laitner, J.A.; Hanson, D.A.; Mintzner, I.; Leonard, J.A.

2006-01-01

The pattern of future evolution for United States (US) energy markets is highly uncertain at this time. This article provided details of a study using a scenario analysis technique to investigate key energy issues affecting decision-making processes in the United States. Four scenarios were used to examine the driving forces and critical uncertainties that may shape United States energy markets and the economy for the next 50 years: (1) a reference scenario benchmarked to the 2002 annual energy outlook forecast, (2) abundant and inexpensive supplies of oil and gas, (3) a chaotic future beset with international conflict, faltering new technologies, environmental policy difficulties and slowed economic growth, and (4) a technology-driven market in which a variety of forces converge to reshape the energy sector. Each of the scenarios was quantified using a computable general equilibrium model known as the All Modular Industry Growth Assessment (AMIGA) model. Results suggested that the range of different outcomes for the US is broad. However, energy use is expected to increase in all 4 scenarios. It was observed that the introduction of policies to encourage capital stock turnover and accelerate the commercialization of high efficiency, low-emissions technologies may reduce future primary energy demand. The analysis also showed that lower energy prices may lead to higher economic growth. Policies introduced to improve energy efficiency and accelerate the introduction of new technologies did not appreciably reduce the prospects for economic growth. Results also suggested that lower fossil fuel prices discourage investments in energy efficiency or new technologies and may mask the task of responding to future surprises. It was concluded that an investment path that emphasizes both energy efficiency improvements and advanced energy supply technologies will provide economic growth conditions similar to the implementation of lower energy prices. 11 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

Technology learning for renewable energy. Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

2009-11-15

Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa. (author)

Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A.T.

1991-01-01

Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Even tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, we discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees

Stakeholder engagement in scenario development process - bioenergy production and biodiversity conservation in eastern Finland.

Science.gov (United States)

Haatanen, Anniina; den Herder, Michael; Leskinen, Pekka; Lindner, Marcus; Kurttila, Mikko; Salminen, Olli

2014-03-15

In this study participatory approaches were used to develop alternative forest resource management scenarios with particular respect to the effects on increased use of forest bioenergy and its effect on biodiversity in Eastern Finland. As technical planning tools, we utilized a forest management planning system (MELA) and the Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) to visualize the impacts of the scenarios. We organized a stakeholder workshop where group discussions were used as a participatory method to get the stakeholder preferences and insights concerning forest resource use in the year 2030. Feedback from the workshop was then complemented with a questionnaire. Based on the results of the workshop and a questionnaire we developed three alternative forest resource scenarios: (1) bioenergy 2030 - in which energy production is more centralized and efficient; (2) biodiversity 2030 - in which harvesting methods are more nature friendly and protected forests make up 10% of the total forest area; and (3) mixed bioenergy + biodiversity 2030 scenario - in which wood production, recreation and nature protection are assigned to the most suitable areas. The study showed that stakeholder engagement combined with the MELA and ToSIA tools can be a useful approach in scenario development. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scenarios for a sustainable energy system in the Åland Islands in 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Child, Michael; Nordling, Alexander; Breyer, Christian

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A fully sustainable energy system for the Åland Islands is possible by 2030. • 100% RE-based domestic production can be achieved with or without reliance on imported energy. • A highly electrified transport sector results in lower annualised energy system costs. • Highly electrified transport may promote employment and international partnerships. • Energy system scenarios were simulated for the Åland Islands with the EnergyPLAN modelling tool. - Abstract: A fully sustainable energy system for the Åland islands is possible by 2030 based on the assumptions in this study. Several scenarios were constructed for the future energy system based on various combinations of domestic production of wind and solar photovoltaic power, expanded domestic energy storage solutions, electrified transport, and strategic energy carrier trade. Hourly analysis of scenarios using the EnergyPLAN tool shows that annualised costs of operating a future sustainable energy system for the year 2030 range between 225 and 247 M€/a compared to 229 M€/a for the business as usual case. However, this result is highly dependent on how vehicle and battery costs are accounted. A scenario featuring a highly electrified transport sector, including a wide range of terrestrial and aquatic forms of mobility, was among the most cost competitive solutions due to high levels of flexibility and electric storage harnessed in the energy system. In this scenario cost reductions were achieved as high capacities of electric vehicle battery storage resulted in less need for seasonal storage and synthetic fuel production in the form of Power-to-Gas technologies and offshore wind power capacity. Results also indicate that 100% renewable energy-based domestic energy production can be achieved in Åland, with or without reliance on imported energy carriers, such as sustainable biofuels or electricity. A demonstration of a highly electrified transport sector may also offer Åland society

Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Lene

2004-01-01

design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

Carrying capacity of U.S. agricultural land: Ten diet scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian J. Peters

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Strategies for environmental sustainability and global food security must account for dietary change. Using a biophysical simulation model we calculated human carrying capacity under ten diet scenarios. The scenarios included two reference diets based on actual consumption and eight “Healthy Diet” scenarios that complied with nutritional recommendations but varied in the level of meat content. We considered the U.S. agricultural land base and accounted for losses, processing conversions, livestock feed needs, suitability of land for crops or grazing, and land productivity. Annual per capita land requirements ranged from 0.13 to 1.08 ha person-1 year-1 across the ten diet scenarios. Carrying capacity varied from 402 to 807 million persons; 1.3 to 2.6 times the 2010 U.S. population. Carrying capacity was generally higher for scenarios with less meat and highest for the lacto-vegetarian diet. However, the carrying capacity of the vegan diet was lower than two of the healthy omnivore diet scenarios. Sensitivity analysis showed that carrying capacity estimates were highly influenced by starting assumptions about the proportion of cropland available for cultivated cropping. Population level dietary change can contribute substantially to meeting future food needs, though ongoing agricultural research and sustainable management practices are still needed to assure sufficient production levels.

Concepts of Scenario Methods in Improvement of an Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edyta Bielinska-Dusza

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Purpose of the study, principal objectives, scope of the investigation, methods employed results and principal conclusion. Uncertainty makes both theoreticians and practicioners face new tasks to fulfil. Enterprises, in order to win the competitive struggle must constantly improve their processes and structures. On the other hand, thinking in the categories of the future becomes really difficult nowadays. This creates particularly convenient conditions to apply scenario methods. In connection with the above, the purpose of this study is to characterize the essence of scenario methods employed in enterprise development. The article addresses the issue of factors conditioning proper selection of methods in the enterprise development process, the principles of scenario planning and the opportunities to apply other techniques and methods in scenario planning.

Mars base buildup scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blacic, J.D.

1985-01-01

Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

Constellation Architecture Team-Lunar Scenario 12.0 Habitation Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Kennedy, Kriss J.; Toups, Larry D.; Rudisill, Marianne

2010-01-01

This paper will describe an overview of the Constellation Architecture Team Lunar Scenario 12.0 (LS-12) surface habitation approach and concept performed during the study definition. The Lunar Scenario 12 architecture study focused on two primary habitation approaches: a horizontally-oriented habitation module (LS-12.0) and a vertically-oriented habitation module (LS-12.1). This paper will provide an overview of the 12.0 lunar surface campaign, the associated outpost architecture, habitation functionality, concept description, system integration strategy, mass and power resource estimates. The Scenario 12 architecture resulted from combining three previous scenario attributes from Scenario 4 "Optimized Exploration", Scenario 5 "Fission Surface Power System" and Scenario 8 "Initial Extensive Mobility" into Scenario 12 along with an added emphasis on defining the excursion ConOps while the crew is away from the outpost location. This paper will describe an overview of the CxAT-Lunar Scenario 12.0 habitation concepts and their functionality. The Crew Operations area includes basic crew accommodations such as sleeping, eating, hygiene and stowage. The EVA Operations area includes additional EVA capability beyond the suitlock function such as suit maintenance, spares stowage, and suit stowage. The Logistics Operations area includes the enhanced accommodations for 180 days such as enhanced life support systems hardware, consumable stowage, spares stowage, interconnection to the other habitation elements, a common interface mechanism for future growth, and mating to a pressurized rover or Pressurized Logistics Module (PLM). The Mission & Science Operations area includes enhanced outpost autonomy such as an IVA glove box, life support, medical operations, and exercise equipment.

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference' at national level. - Finally, the MEDEE energy demand model applied in

Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

Science.gov (United States)

Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

2014-05-01

. The usable and realistic ground motion maps for urban areas are generated: - either from the assumption of a "reference earthquake" - or directly, showing values of macroseimic intensity generated by a damaging, real earthquake. In the study, applying deterministic approach, earthquake scenario in macroseismic intensity ("model" earthquake scenario) for the city of Sofia is generated. The deterministic "model" intensity scenario based on assumption of a "reference earthquake" is compared with a scenario based on observed macroseimic effects caused by the damaging 2012 earthquake (MW5.6). The difference between observed (Io) and predicted (Ip) intensities values is analyzed.

Economic study of fuel scenarios for a reload; Estudio economico de escenarios de combustible para una recarga

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ortiz S, J. J.; Castillo M, J. A.; Montes T, J. L.; Perusquia del C, R., E-mail: juanjose.ortiz@inin.gob.mx [ININ, Carretera Mexico-Toluca s/n, 52750 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)

2014-10-15

In this work the results to plan different scenarios for designing a nuclear fuel reload are shown. Given a reload with specific energy requirements, the objective is to verify the feasibility of using either a greater number of fresh fuel with less uranium enrichment, or otherwise reduce the number of fresh fuel assemblies and therefore they have a higher average uranium enrichment. For the study a cycle balance 18-month basis with 112 fresh assemblies divided into two lots, with energy produced of 10,075 Mwd/Tu was used. For the designs under the mentioned scenarios, the heuristic techniques known as taboo search and neural networks were used. To verify the feasibility of obtained reloads an economic study of the reload costs was performed. The results showed that is possible to design reloads under the two scenarios, but was more complicated decrease the amount of fresh fuel assemblies. In both scenarios was possible to reduce manufacturing costs of fuel and according to purely static calculation, it would be possible to increase the energy produced. (Author)

From scenarios to components

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fahland, D.

2010-01-01

Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

Discussion of ISV Scenario Scope with Operating Process Element

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Yun Goo; Oh, Eungse [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. ltd. Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

NUREG-0711 identifies the sampling dimension of operational conditions which includes normal operation,I and C and HSI failures, transient, and accidents. Because of practical limitation of sampling, ISV scenarios do not include every expected operational condition. To develop a scenario for the ISV, it requires much time and efforts. It takes about 1 month with 3 operating crew team for 7 scenarios for the ISV. Therefore, operational conditions are screened out for integration to scenario. TSV can be used for the evaluation of monitoring, detection, and response implementation about the inventory of information and control. However, validity of operational walkthrough for other operating process element needs to be discussed. For the situation awareness, the general acceptance check list can be derived from the result of representative scenario set of ISV. The check list may contain the number of information, type of information, level of procedure and training program. For the response planning, procedure can be used for evaluation.

Sustainable energy prices and growth. Comparing macroeconomic and backcasting scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahlroth, Sofia; Hoejer, Mattias

2007-01-01

How do results from the sustainability research world of backcasting relate to the macroeconomic scenarios used for policy evaluation and planning? The answer is that they do not, mostly - they come from different scientific traditions and are not used in the same contexts. Yet they often deal with the same issues. We believe that much can be gained by bringing the two systems of thinking together. This paper is a first attempt to do so, by making qualitative comparisons between different scenarios and highlighting benefits and limitations to each of them. Why are the pictures we get of the energy future so different if we use a macroeconomic model from when using a backcasting approach based on sustainable energy use? It is evident that the methods for producing those two kinds of scenarios differ a lot, but the main reason behind the different results are found in the starting points rather than in the methods. Baseline assumptions are quite different, as well as the interpretations and importance attached to signals about the future. In this paper, it is discussed how those two types of scenarios differ and how they approach issues such as energy prices and growth. The discussion is based on a comparison between Swedish economic and sustainability scenarios. The economic scenarios aim at being forecasts of the future and are used as decision support for long-term policies. But are the assumptions in the economic scenarios reasonable? The sustainability scenarios are explicitly normative backcasting scenarios. They do not take the issue of growth and consumption fully into account. Could they be developed in this respect? The comparison between the scenarios is also used to look closer at the issue of energy prices in a society with sustainable energy use. One of the questions raised is if a low energy society calls for high energy prices. Moreover, the effects of tradable permits versus energy taxes is analysed in the context of how energy use could be kept low

Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajesh, N.; Kapshe, M.; Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Rana, A.

2003-01-01

In the coming years India faces great challenges in energy and environment. The path of development chosen by India, upon which lies the future growth of energy and emission trajectories, would be greatly influenced by technological developments both within and outside the country, economic cooperation between countries, and global cooperation in limiting greenhouse gas emissions. This paper discusses the integrated modeling system used for developing and analyzing the long-term trajectories and presents results for the scenarios developed. In the context of ongoing market reforms two scenarios - accelerated and decelerated reforms - are developed depicting fast and slow progress in energy sector reforms compared to expectations in the baseline scenario. Accelerated market reforms would spur improvements in technological efficiencies. Reforms would lower investment risks in India, thereby stimulating increased levels of foreign direct investment. On the other hand in decelerated reform scenario economic growth is lower than that in the base case, there is low access to capital, and technological improvements lag behind those in the base case. In another scenario we assume specific policy interventions for penetration of renewable technologies over the baseline scenario, for promotion and accelerated deployment of renewable energy technologies over and above the baseline assumptions. A scenario with carbon (c) constraints has also been developed and the results discussed

The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W

1998-03-01

Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10{sup 4} years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)

The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W.

1998-03-01

Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10 4 years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)

Constructing Consistent Multiscale Scenarios by Transdisciplinary Processes: the Case of Mountain Regions Facing Global Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fridolin Simon. Brand

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Alpine regions in Europe, in particular, face demanding local challenges, e.g., the decline in the agriculture and timber industries, and are also prone to global changes, such as in climate, with potentially severe impacts on tourism. We focus on the Visp region in the Upper Valais, Switzerland, and ask how the process of stakeholder involvement in research practice can contribute to a better understanding of the specific challenges and future development of mountainous regions under global change. Based on a coupled human-environment system (HES perspective, we carried out a formative scenario analysis to develop a set of scenarios for the future directions of the Visp region. In addition, we linked these regional scenarios to context scenarios developed at the global and Swiss levels via an external consistency analysis. This method allows the coupling of both the scenario building process and the scenarios as such. We used a functional-dynamic approach to theory-practice cooperation, i.e., the involvement of key stakeholders from, for example, tourism, forestry, and administration, differed in type and intensity during the steps of the research process. In our study, we experienced strong problem awareness among the stakeholders concerning the impacts of global change and local challenges. The guiding research question was commonly defined and problem ownership was more or less balanced. We arrived at six multiscale scenarios that open up future trajectories for the Visp region, and present generic strategies to cope with global and local challenges. The results show that local identity, spatial planning, community budget, and demographic development are important steering elements in the region's future development. We suggest that method-guided transdisciplinary processes result in a richer picture and a more systemic understanding, which enable a discussion of critical and surprising issues.

Use of a scenario-development procedure to identify potentially disruptive scenarios, Greater Confinement Disposal facility, Area 5, Nevada Test Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guzowski, R.V.; Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM

1994-01-01

The Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD) facility includes four boreholes that contain transuranic (TRLT) waste. Presence of the TRU waste means that this facility must comply with the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Waste-Final Rule 40 CFR Part 191. To comply with the Containment Requirements of this rule, all potentially disruptive events and processes, and by implication all potentially disruptive combinations of events and processes (scenarios), must be identified for possible inclusion in performance assessments. Screening of the FEPs identified four events for scenario development: exploratory drilling for natural resources, drilling withdrawal wells, irrigation, and subsidence. Recent environmental-isotope analyses of the vadose zone suggest that radionuclide transport from the boreholes to the water table by infiltration is not a feasible transport mechanism within the time frame of regulatory concern. For this reason, the event of drilling withdrawal wells was merged with exploratory drilling for resources. The descriptions of the remaining three events were modified slightly to aid in estimation of event probabilities and consequence analyses. The three events are: exploratory drilling for resources penetrates a TRU borehole, irrigation occurs at the Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS), and subsidence occurs at the RWMS. Use of a logic diagram with these three events resulted in the construction of eight scenarios, including base-case (undisturbed) conditions. Screening these scenarios at this stage of scenario development was beyond the scope of this task. Based on the implementation assumptions, this scenario-development procedure produced a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios that are reproducible and auditable for use in GCD performance assessments

Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Posch

2008-03-01

Full Text Available The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically feasible reductions (MFR. Future climate (temperature and precipitation was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2. The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change. Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.

Scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

2015-01-01

We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

Analysis of uncertainty propagation in nuclear fuel cycle scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krivtchik, Guillaume

2014-01-01

Nuclear scenario studies model nuclear fleet over a given period. They enable the comparison of different options for the reactor fleet evolution, and the management of the future fuel cycle materials, from mining to disposal, based on criteria such as installed capacity per reactor technology, mass inventories and flows, in the fuel cycle and in the waste. Uncertainties associated with nuclear data and scenario parameters (fuel, reactors and facilities characteristics) propagate along the isotopic chains in depletion calculations, and through out the scenario history, which reduces the precision of the results. The aim of this work is to develop, implement and use a stochastic uncertainty propagation methodology adapted to scenario studies. The method chosen is based on development of depletion computation surrogate models, which reduce the scenario studies computation time, and whose parameters include perturbations of the depletion model; and fabrication of equivalence model which take into account cross-sections perturbations for computation of fresh fuel enrichment. Then the uncertainty propagation methodology is applied to different scenarios of interest, considering different options of evolution for the French PWR fleet with SFR deployment. (author) [fr

Hydroelectric power generation in an Alpine basin: future water-energy scenarios in a run-of-the-river plant

Science.gov (United States)

Bongio, Marco; Avanzi, Francesco; De Michele, Carlo

2016-08-01

We investigate scenarios of hydroelectric power generation for an Alpine run-of-the-river plant in 2050. To this end, we include a conversion from streamflow to energy in a hydrological model of the basin, and we introduce a set of benchmark climate scenarios to evaluate expected future production. These are a "future-like-present" scenario assuming future precipitation and temperature inputs to be statistically equivalent to those observed during the recent past at the same location, a "warmer-future" scenario, which considers an additional increase in temperature, and a "liquid-only" scenario where only liquid precipitation is admitted. In addition, two IPCC-like climatic scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are considered. Uncertainty in glaciers' volume is accounted by initializing the hydrological model with two different inventories of glaciers. Ensemble results reveal that 1) an average decrease between -40% and -19% of hydroelectric power generation in 2050 is predicted at the plant considered (with respect to present condition); 2) an average decrease between -20% and -38% of cumulative incoming streamflow volume at the plant is also predicted, again with respect to present condition; 3) these effects are associated with a strong average decrease of the volume of glaciers (between -76% and -96%, depending on the initial value considered). However, Monte Carlo simulations show that results are also prone to high uncertainties. Implications of these results for run-of-the-river plants are discussed.

Significance of Bias Correction in Drought Frequency and Scenario Analysis Based on Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Aryal, Y.; Zhu, J.

2015-12-01

Assessment of future drought characteristics is difficult as climate models usually have bias in simulating precipitation frequency and intensity. To overcome this limitation, output from climate models need to be bias corrected based on the specific purpose of applications. In this study, we examine the significance of bias correction in the context of drought frequency and scenario analysis using output from climate models. In particular, we investigate the performance of three widely used bias correction techniques: (1) monthly bias correction (MBC), (2) nested bias correction (NBC), and (3) equidistance quantile mapping (EQM) The effect of bias correction in future scenario of drought frequency is also analyzed. The characteristics of drought are investigated in terms of frequency and severity in nine representative locations in different climatic regions across the United States using regional climate model (RCM) output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used as the means to compare and forecast drought characteristics at different timescales. Systematic biases in the RCM precipitation output are corrected against the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. The results demonstrate that bias correction significantly decreases the RCM errors in reproducing drought frequency derived from the NARR data. Preserving mean and standard deviation is essential for climate models in drought frequency analysis. RCM biases both have regional and timescale dependence. Different timescale of input precipitation in the bias corrections show similar results. Drought frequency obtained from the RCM future (2040-2070) scenarios is compared with that from the historical simulations. The changes in drought characteristics occur in all climatic regions. The relative changes in drought frequency in future scenario in relation to

Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn

2001-01-01

Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money

Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A.T.

1990-01-01

Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Event tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, the authors discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 (Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises) using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees

Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

1992-01-01

The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

2007-08-20

The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

The evolution of extreme precipitations in high resolution scenarios over France

Science.gov (United States)

Colin, J.; Déqué, M.; Somot, S.

2009-09-01

Over the past years, improving the modelling of extreme events and their variability at climatic time scales has become one of the challenging issue raised in the regional climate research field. This study shows the results of a high resolution (12 km) scenario run over France with the limited area model (LAM) ALADIN-Climat, regarding the representation of extreme precipitations. The runs were conducted in the framework of the ANR-SCAMPEI national project on high resolution scenarios over French mountains. As a first step, we attempt to quantify one of the uncertainties implied by the use of LAM : the size of the area on which the model is run. In particular, we address the issue of whether a relatively small domain allows the model to create its small scale process. Indeed, high resolution scenarios cannot be run on large domains because of the computation time. Therefore one needs to answer this preliminary question before producing and analyzing such scenarios. To do so, we worked in the framework of a « big brother » experiment. We performed a 23-year long global simulation in present-day climate (1979-2001) with the ARPEGE-Climat GCM, at a resolution of approximately 50 km over Europe (stretched grid). This first simulation, named ARP50, constitutes the « big brother » reference of our experiment. It has been validated in comparison with the CRU climatology. Then we filtered the short waves (up to 200 km) from ARP50 in order to obtain the equivalent of coarse resolution lateral boundary conditions (LBC). We have carried out three ALADIN-Climat simulations at a 50 km resolution with these LBC, using different configurations of the model : * FRA50, run over a small domain (2000 x 2000 km, centered over France), * EUR50, run over a larger domain (5000 x 5000 km, centered over France as well), * EUR50-SN, run over the large domain (using spectral nudging). Considering the facts that ARPEGE-Climat and ALADIN-Climat models share the same physics and dynamics

Scenario Development for Trgovska Gora Shallow Land Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skanata, D.; Medakovic, S.; Lokner, V.; Levanat, I.

2002-01-01

Safety assessments, either preliminary or final, consist of a qualitative and a quantitative part. The qualitative part of the assessment implies a selection of relevant scenarios to be analyzed, while the quantitative part of the assessment consists of their mathematical modeling. This work is dealing with the qualitative part of safety assessment concerning a specific radioactive waste disposal system, i.e., the shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora. This article has as its purpose a brief presentation of the ISAM methodology application results (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Radioactive Waste Facilities;), a methodology developed within the framework of a project of the same name, organized by the IAEA. The above mentioned methodology is based on the development of the so-called FEP list (Features, Events, Process), on selection procedure of the FEP list, specifically regarding particular criteria defined in advance, and on application of systematic methods of selecting relevant scenarios (in this case the matrix of interactions method has been applied). The main aim and purpose of a methodology based on the analysis of FEPs (identification, classification, selection, construction of the matrix of interactions) consists of observing and documenting all the features, events and processes due to be taken into consideration while assessing safety of a particular radioactive waste disposal system. In this connection, by radioactive waste disposal system we mean a system consisting of radioactive waste and engineer features (barriers), geological environment within which the disposal site is located, surface-environment (soil, sediments, vegetation, etc.) and human population near the disposal site. The final step of the application of this methodology consists of generating the scenario using the matrix of interactions. So, for shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora, applying

Modeling Flood & Drought Scenario for Water Management in Porali River Basin, Balochistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shoaib Ahmed

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Recent history shows that floods have become a frequently occurring disaster in Balochistan, especially during monsoon season. Two rivers, river Porali and river Kud overflows, inundating its banks and causing destruction to cultivated land and property. This study is an attempt to identify flood prone areas of Porali river basin for future flood scenario and propose possible reservoir locations for excess flood water storage. Computer-based models Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF and HEC-river analysis system (HEC-RAS are used as tools to simulate existing and future flood and drought scenarios. Models are calibrated and validated using data from 3 weather stations, namely Wadh, Bela, and Uthal and stream flow data from two gauging stations. The highest and the lowest 10 years of precipitation data are extracted, from historic dataset of all stations, to attain future flooding and drought scenarios, respectively. Flood inundation map is generated highlighting agricultural prone land and settlements of the watershed. Using Digital Elevation Model (DEM and volume of water calculated from the flood scenario, possible locations for reservoirs are marked that can store excess water for the use in drought years. Flow and volume of water has also been simulated for drought scenario. Analyses show that 3 × 109 m3 of water available due to immense flooding that is sufficient for the survival for one drought year, as the volume of water for latter scenario is 2.9 × 108m3.

Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

2002-03-01

The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

Transition scenarios towards sustained Pu-management in China - 5504

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Evans, C.; Drevon, C.; Favet, D.; Avrin, A.P.; Carlier, B.

2015-01-01

The Chinese nuclear reactor park is growing rapidly with already some 250 GWe projected to be operational by mid-century and with even larger nuclear reactor parks during the second half of this century to match the energy demand in a sustainable way. Such a large and fast growing nuclear reactor park goes with anticipated challenges with regard to the fuel cycle with essentially a focus on the rapidly growing inventory of used nuclear fuel. China is considering various options towards a more sustainable nuclear energy park with the recycling of fissile materials in various types of reactors being the backbone towards such sustainable nuclear future. This paper briefs on an analysis of the transition towards a continued responsible and flexible management of plutonium and uranium in this Chinese nuclear reactor park highlighting the results of nuclear energy systems scenario technical-economic analysis for LWR-MOX and LWR-SFR scenarios. Preliminary analysis show that the 2 described options lead to a sustainable closed cycle system while implementing early a responsible management of fast growing generated used fuel inventory

Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

2015-01-01

This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

Overview of EMF 22 U.S. transition scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fawcett, Allen A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Chesnaye, Francisco C. de la; Reilly, John M.; Weyant, John P.

2009-01-01

The Energy Modeling Forum 22 study included a set of U.S. transition scenarios designed to bracket a range of potential U.S. climate policy goals. Models from the six teams that participated in this part of the study include models that have been prominently involved in analyzing proposed U.S. climate legislation, as well as models that have been involved in the Climate Change Science Program and other parts of this EMF 22 study. This paper presents an overview of the results from the U.S. transition scenarios, and provides insights into the comparison of results from the participating models. (author)

Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ian G. Cullis

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

Climate protection scenario 2050. Summary; Klimaschutzszenario 2050. Zusammenfassung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Repenning, Julia; Emele, Lukas [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Berlin (Germany); Braungardt, Sibylle; Eichhammer, Wolfgang [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany)

2014-04-15

The report on the meeting of the experts on modeling of the climate protection scenario 2050 summarizes the substantial results: 80-90% reduction the greenhouse gas emissions means a reduction of fossil energy carriers by up to 98%. The electricity generation industry has to provide most of the reduction since esp. agriculture cannot reduce the CO2 emissions. The amount of renewable energy for electricity production has to increase to about 95%. The economic analysis shows that a strategy of energy efficiency and electricity production from renewable energy sources plus product innovation is a no-regret strategy that will be advantageous for Germany in a long-term.

Scenario-based fitted Q-iteration for adaptive control of water reservoir systems under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Bertoni, Federica; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

2017-04-01

Over recent years, mathematical models have largely been used to support planning and management of water resources systems. Yet, the increasing uncertainties in their inputs - due to increased variability in the hydrological regimes - are a major challenge to the optimal operations of these systems. Such uncertainty, boosted by projected changing climate, violates the stationarity principle generally used for describing hydro-meteorological processes, which assumes time persisting statistical characteristics of a given variable as inferred by historical data. As this principle is unlikely to be valid in the future, the probability density function used for modeling stochastic disturbances (e.g., inflows) becomes an additional uncertain parameter of the problem, which can be described in a deterministic and set-membership based fashion. This study contributes a novel method for designing optimal, adaptive policies for controlling water reservoir systems under climate-related uncertainty. The proposed method, called scenario-based Fitted Q-Iteration (sFQI), extends the original Fitted Q-Iteration algorithm by enlarging the state space to include the space of the uncertain system's parameters (i.e., the uncertain climate scenarios). As a result, sFQI embeds the set-membership uncertainty of the future inflow scenarios in the action-value function and is able to approximate, with a single learning process, the optimal control policy associated to any scenario included in the uncertainty set. The method is demonstrated on a synthetic water system, consisting of a regulated lake operated for ensuring reliable water supply to downstream users. Numerical results show that the sFQI algorithm successfully identifies adaptive solutions to operate the system under different inflow scenarios, which outperform the control policy designed under historical conditions. Moreover, the sFQI policy generalizes over inflow scenarios not directly experienced during the policy design

Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico; Escenarios energeticos para la produccion de hidrogeno en Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L. [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 Mexico D. F. (Mexico)], e-mail: iqoren@gmail.com

2009-10-15

The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO{sub 2}. The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO{sub 2}, the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

2018-01-01

As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8–61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9–58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3–45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47 and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security. PMID:29401747

Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

1990-09-01

This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs

Simulation of groundwater flow and pumping scenarios for 1900–2050 near Mount Pleasant, South Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

Fine, Jason M.; Petkewich, Matthew D.; Campbell, Bruce G.

2017-10-31

/d; Scenario 5—minimize MPW surface-water purchase from the Charleston Water System by adding supply wells and increasing withdrawals from the Middendorf aquifer from 3.9 Mgal/d (in 2015) to 12.16 Mgal/d; and Scenario 6—same as Scenario 1, but with he addition of quarterly model stress periods to simulate seasonal variations in the groundwater withdrawals. Results from the simulations indicated further decline of groundwater levels creating cones of depressions near pumping wells in the Middendorf aquifer in the Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, area between 2015 and 2050 for all six scenarios.Simulation results from Scenario 1 showed an average decline of about 150 feet in the groundwater levels of the MPW production wells. Simulated hydrographs for two area observation wells illustrate the gradual decline in groundwater levels with overall changes in water-level altitudes of –92 and –33 feet, respectively. Simulated groundwater altitudes at a hypothetical observation well located in the MPW well field declined 121 feet between 2015 and 2050.Scenarios 2 and 3 have the same pumping rates as Scenario 1 for the MPW production wells; however, a single hypothetical pumping well was added in the Middendorf aquifer near the town of Moncks Corner, South Carolina. This hypothetical pumping well has a withdrawal rate of 0.5 Mgal/d for Scenario 2 and 1.5 Mgal/d for Scenario 3. A comparison to the 2050 Scenario 1 simulation indicates groundwater altitudes for Scenarios 2 and Scenario 3 are 3 feet and 8 feet lower, respectively, at the MPW production wells.Scenario 4 simulates the maximum pumping capacity of 10.16 Mgal/d for the MPW network of production wells. Simulated 2050 groundwater altitudes for this simulation declined to –359 feet. Simulated hydrographs for two observation wells show groundwater-level declines of 116 and 41 feet, respectively. Simulated differences in groundwater altitudes at a hypothetical observation well located in the MPW well field indicate a water

From carbonization to decarbonization?-Past trends and future scenarios for China's CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steckel, Jan Christoph; Jakob, Michael; Marschinski, Robert; Luderer, Gunnar

2011-01-01

Along the lines of the Kaya identity, we perform a decomposition analysis of historical and projected emissions data for China. We compare the results with reduction requirements implied by globally cost-effective mitigation scenarios and official Chinese policy targets. For the years 1971-2000 we find that the impact of high economic growth on emissions was partially compensated by a steady fall in energy intensity. However, the end - and even reversal - of this downward trend, along with a rising carbon intensity of energy, resulted in rapid emission growth during 2000-2007. By applying an innovative enhanced Kaya-decomposition method, we also show how the persistent increase in the use of coal has caused carbon intensity to rise throughout the entire time-horizon of the analysis. These insights are then compared to model scenarios for future energy system developments generated by the ReMIND-R model. The analysis reaffirms China's indispensable role in global efforts to implement any of three exemplary stabilization targets (400, 450, or 500 ppm CO 2 -only), and underscore the increasing importance of carbon intensity for the more ambitious targets. Finally, we compare China's official targets for energy intensity and carbon intensity of GDP to projections for global cost-effective stabilization scenarios, finding them to be roughly compatible in the short-to-mid-term. - Highlights: → An extended Kaya-decomposition is applied to historical data and ReMIND-R scenario results for China. → Reversing a historic trend, energy intensity has increased in recent years. → The contribution of coal in increasing carbon intensity and emissions has been constant in the past. → Decarbonization becomes increasingly important with increasingly ambitious climate targets. → Chinese targets for carbon intensity of GDP are in line with a 450 ppm CO 2 -only stabilization scenario.

Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

Experimental observations of boric acid precipitation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vaghetto, R., E-mail: r.vaghetto@tamu.edu; Childs, M., E-mail: masonchilds@tamu.edu; Jones, P., E-mail: pgjones87@tamu.edu; Lee, S., E-mail: sayalee@tamu.edu; Kee, E., E-mail: erniekee@gmail.com; Hassan, Y.A., E-mail: y-hassan@tamu.edu

2017-02-15

During a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) in Light Water Reactors (LWR), borated water is injected into the core through the safety injection system. The continuous vaporization of the water from the core may increase the concentration of boric acid in the core that, under certain conditions may reach the solubility limit and precipitate. This includes scenarios where the liquid water supply to the core is affected by possible blockages due to debris accumulation. Questions have been raised on the effects of the precipitate in the core on the flow behavior, including the possibility of additional blockages produced by precipitate accumulation. A simple experimental facility was constructed to perform experimental observations of the behavior of borated water under the combined effects of the boiling and the boric acid precipitation (BAP). The facility consists of a transparent polycarbonate vertical pipe where forty-five heated rods have been installed to supply the power to the water to reach the saturation temperature, and maintain a desired boil-off rate. The layout and geometry of the experimental apparatus were conceived to emulate a simplified core of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Experimental observations have been conducted under two different conditions. Preliminary tests were conducted to observe the behavior of the water and the boric acid precipitate during a boil-off scenario without borated water addition (decreasing water level). During the main test runs, borated water was constantly injected from the top of the test section to maintain a constant mixture level in the test section. Both tests assumed no flow from the bottom of the test section which may be the case of PWR LOCA scenarios in presence of debris-generated core blockage. The observations performed with a set of cameras installed around the test section showed interesting effects of the vapor bubbles on the boric acid precipitate migration and accumulation in the test section. The

Do environmental dynamics matter in fate models? Exploring scenario dynamics for a terrestrial and an aquatic system.

Science.gov (United States)

Morselli, Melissa; Terzaghi, Elisa; Di Guardo, Antonio

2018-01-24

Nowadays, there is growing interest in inserting more ecological realism into risk assessment of chemicals. On the exposure evaluation side, this can be done by studying the complexity of exposure in the ecosystem, niche partitioning, e.g. variation of the exposure scenario. Current regulatory predictive approaches, to ensure simplicity and predictive ability, generally keep the scenario as static as possible. This could lead to under or overprediction of chemical exposure depending on the chemical and scenario simulated. To account for more realistic exposure conditions, varying temporally and spatially, additional scenario complexity should be included in currently used models to improve their predictive ability. This study presents two case studies (a terrestrial and an aquatic one) in which some polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were simulated with the SoilPlusVeg and ChimERA models to show the importance of scenario variation in time (biotic and abiotic compartments). The results outlined the importance of accounting for planetary boundary layer variation and vegetation dynamics to accurately predict air concentration changes and the timing of chemical dispersion from the source in terrestrial systems. For the aquatic exercise, the results indicated the need to account for organic carbon forms (particulate and dissolved organic carbon) and vegetation biomass dynamics. In both cases the range of variation was up to two orders of magnitude depending on the congener and scenario, reinforcing the need for incorporating such knowledge into exposure assessment.

Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

2017-01-01

existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

Archaeogeophysical tests in water saturated and under water scenarios at the Hydrogeosite Laboratory

Science.gov (United States)

Capozzoli, Luigi; De Martino, Gregory; Giampaolo, Valeria; Perciante, Felice; Rizzo, Enzo

2016-04-01

The growing interest in underwater archaeology as witnessed by numerous archaeological campaigns carried out in the Mediterranean region in marine and lacustrine environments involves a challenge of great importance for archaeogeophysical discipline. Through a careful use of geophysical techniques it is possible support archaeological research to identify and analyse the undiscovered cultural heritage placed under water located near rivers and sea. Over the past decades, geophysical methods were applied successfully in the field of archaeology: an integrated approach based on the use of electric, electromagnetic and magnetic techniques have showed the ability to individuate and reconstruct the presence of archaeological remains in the subsoil allowing to define their distribution in the space limiting the excavation activities. Moreover the capability of geophysics could be limited cause the low geophysical contrasts occurring between archaeological structures and surrounding environment; in particular problems of resolution, depth of investigation and sensitivity related to each adopted technique can result in a distorted reading of the subsurface behaviour preventing the identification of archaeological remains. This problem is amplified when geophysical approach is applied in very humid environments such as in lacustrine and marine scenarios, or in soils characterized by high clay content that make more difficult the propagation of geophysical signals. In order to improve our geophysical knowledge in lacustrine and coastal scenarios a complex and innovative research project was realized at the CNR laboratory of Hydrogeosite which permitted to perform an archaeogeophysical experiment in controlled conditions. The designed archaeological context was focused on the Roman age and various elements characterized by different shapes and materials were placed at different depths in the sub-soil. The preliminary project activities with some scenarios were presented last

Large scale scenario analysis of future low carbon energy options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olaleye, Olaitan; Baker, Erin

2015-01-01

In this study, we use a multi-model framework to examine a set of possible future energy scenarios resulting from R&D investments in Solar, Nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Bio-fuels, Bio-electricity, and Batteries for Electric Transportation. Based on a global scenario analysis, we examine the impact on the economy of advancement in energy technologies, considering both individual technologies and the interactions between pairs of technologies, with a focus on the role of uncertainty. Nuclear and CCS have the most impact on abatement costs, with CCS mostly important at high levels of abatement. We show that CCS and Bio-electricity are complements, while most of the other energy technology pairs are substitutes. We also examine for stochastic dominance between R&D portfolios: given the uncertainty in R&D outcomes, we examine which portfolios would be preferred by all decision-makers, regardless of their attitude toward risk. We observe that portfolios with CCS tend to stochastically dominate those without CCS; and portfolios lacking CCS and Nuclear tend to be stochastically dominated by others. We find that the dominance of CCS becomes even stronger as uncertainty in climate damages increases. Finally, we show that there is significant value in carefully choosing a portfolio, as relatively small portfolios can dominate large portfolios. - Highlights: • We examine future energy scenarios in the face of R&D and climate uncertainty. • We examine the impact of advancement in energy technologies and pairs of technologies. • CCS complements Bio-electricity while most technology pairs are substitutes. • R&D portfolios without CCS are stochastically dominated by portfolios with CCS. • Higher damage uncertainty favors R&D development of CCS and Bio-electricity

Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: An integrated approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo; Mediavilla, Margarita; Castro, Carlos de; Carpintero, Óscar; Miguel, Luis Javier

2014-01-01

The progressive reduction of high-quality-easy-to-extract energy is a widely recognized and already ongoing process. Although depletion studies for individual fuels are relatively abundant, few of them offer a global perspective of all energy sources and their potential future developments, and even fewer include the demand of the socio-economic system. This paper presents an Economy-Energy-Environment model based on System Dynamics which integrates all those aspects: the physical restrictions (with peak estimations for oil, gas, coal and uranium), the techno-sustainable potential of renewable energy estimated by a novel top-down methodology, the socio-economic energy demands, the development of alternative technologies and the net CO 2 emissions. We confront our model with the basic assumptions of previous Global Environmental Assessment (GEA) studies. The results show that demand-driven evolution, as performed in the past, might be unfeasible: strong energy-supply scarcity is found in the next two decades, especially in the transportation sector before 2020. Electricity generation is unable to fulfill its demand in 2025–2040, and a large expansion of electric renewable energies move us close to their limits. In order to find achievable scenarios, we are obliged to set hypotheses which are hardly used in GEA scenarios, such as zero or negative economic growth. - Highlights: • The paper presents and describes a new Energy–Economy–Environment global model. • GEA scenario dynamics have the potential to lead us to energy resource scarcity in the next 2 decades. • Global forecasts of international agencies show inconsistency in energy constraints. • Renewable energies are only partially able to replace fossil fuels depletion. • Climate change still reaches dangerous dimensions

Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Tao; Watson, Jim

2010-01-01

China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy.

Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

Science.gov (United States)

Pendergrass, Angeline; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin; Xu, Yangyang

2016-04-01

The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and therefore depends on the change in composition of the emissions scenario used to drive climate model simulations for the remainder of the century. We investigate whether or not this is also the case for extreme precipitation simulated by a multi-model ensemble driven by four realistic emissions scenarios. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily rainfall per degree global warming in the multi-model ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extra-tropical land. These results indicate that, in most models, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario, in contrast to mean precipitation.

Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

2017-01-01

In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

Climate change impact assessment on flow regime by incorporating spatial correlation and scenario uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

2017-07-01

Flooding risk is increasing in many parts of the world and may worsen under climate change conditions. The accuracy of predicting flooding risk relies on reasonable projection of meteorological data (especially rainfall) at the local scale. The current statistical downscaling approaches face the difficulty of projecting multi-site climate information for future conditions while conserving spatial information. This study presents a combined Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) stochastic weather generator and multi-site rainfall simulator RainSim (CLWRS) approach to investigate flow regimes under future conditions in the Kootenay Watershed, Canada. To understand the uncertainty effect stemming from different scenarios, the climate output is fed into a hydrologic model. The results showed different variation trends of annual peak flows (in 2080-2099) based on different climate change scenarios and demonstrated that the hydrological impact would be driven by the interaction between snowmelt and peak flows. The proposed CLWRS approach is useful where there is a need for projection of potential climate change scenarios.

Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

2016-02-11

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

Comparative scenario study of tropospheric ozone climate interactions using a global model. A 1% global increase rate, the IS92a IPCC scenario and a simplified aircraft traffic increase scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chalita, S [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Service d` Aeronomie; Le Treut, H [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique

1998-12-31

Sensitivity studies have been made to establish the relationship between different scenarios of tropospheric ozone increase and radiative forcing. Some aspects of the ozone-climate interactions for past and future scenarios are investigated. These calculations employ IMAGES tropospheric ozone concentrations for a pre-industrial, present and future atmospheres. The averaged last 10 years of the 25-year seasonal integrations were analyzed. The results of this study are preliminary. Ozone forcing is basically different from the CO{sub 2} forcing, for its regional and temporal structured nature and for its rather weak intensity. (R.P.) 14 refs.

Comparative scenario study of tropospheric ozone climate interactions using a global model. A 1% global increase rate, the IS92a IPCC scenario and a simplified aircraft traffic increase scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chalita, S. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Service d`Aeronomie; Le Treut, H. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique

1997-12-31

Sensitivity studies have been made to establish the relationship between different scenarios of tropospheric ozone increase and radiative forcing. Some aspects of the ozone-climate interactions for past and future scenarios are investigated. These calculations employ IMAGES tropospheric ozone concentrations for a pre-industrial, present and future atmospheres. The averaged last 10 years of the 25-year seasonal integrations were analyzed. The results of this study are preliminary. Ozone forcing is basically different from the CO{sub 2} forcing, for its regional and temporal structured nature and for its rather weak intensity. (R.P.) 14 refs.

Scenarios for waste management involving innovative systems (ADS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tommasi, J.; Bottollier-Curtet, H.; Massara, S.; Varaine, F.; Delpech, M.

2001-01-01

The global performance of reactor park scenarios based on innovative systems (Accelerator-Driven Systems, ADS) for transmutation is studied, based either on equilibrium recycling states or on high burn-up systems. The results of these first studies are preliminary but allow to assess the main parameters of the fuel cycle (inventories, mass balances, mass flows...), to evaluate the specific contributions of ADS on the main scenario parameters, and to compare subcritical systems to critical ones. (author)

Scenario group summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorndike, A.

1976-01-01

A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

Scenario group summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorndike, A.

1976-01-01

The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

2017-04-24

interconnectedness of infrastructure, society, and our economy. How would this earthquake scenario, striking close to Silicon Valley, impact our interconnected world in ways and at a scale we have not experienced in any previous domestic earthquake?The area of present-day Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Clara Counties contended with a magnitude-6.8 earthquake in 1868 on the Hayward Fault. Although sparsely populated then, about 30 people were killed and extensive property damage resulted. The question of what an earthquake like that would do today has been examined before and is now revisited in the HayWired scenario. Scientists have documented a series of prehistoric earthquakes on the Hayward Fault and are confident that the threat of a future earthquake, like that modeled in the HayWired scenario, is real and could happen at any time. The team assembled to build this scenario has brought innovative new approaches to examining the natural hazards, impacts, and consequences of such an event. Such an earthquake would also be accompanied by widespread liquefaction and landslides, which are treated in greater detail than ever before. The team also considers how the now-prototype ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system could provide useful public alerts and automatic actions.Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013 and accompanying data releases are the products of an effort led by the USGS, but this body of work was created through the combined efforts of a large team including partners who have come together to form the HayWired Coalition (see chapter A). Use of the HayWired scenario has already begun. More than a full year of intensive partner engagement, beginning in April 2017, is being directed toward producing the most in-depth look ever at the impacts and consequences of a large earthquake on the Hayward Fault. With the HayWired scenario, our hope is to encourage and support the active ongoing engagement of the entire community of the San Francisco Bay region by

Scenario modelling of land use/land cover changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Kindu, Mengistie; Schneider, Thomas; Döllerer, Martin; Teketay, Demel; Knoke, Thomas

2018-05-01

Models under a set of scenarios are used to simulate and improve our understanding of land use/land cover (LULC) changes, which is central for sustainable management of a given natural resource. In this study, we simulated and examined the possible future LULC patterns and changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands covering four decades (2012-2050) using a spatially explicit GIS-based model. Both primary and secondary sources were utilized to identify relevant explanatory variables (drivers) and LULC datasets for the model. Three alternative scenarios, namely Business As Usual (BAU), Forest Conservation and Water Protection (FCWP) and Sustainable Intensification (SI) were used. The simulated LULC map of 2012 was compared with the actual for model validation and showed a good consistency. The results revealed that areas of croplands will increase widely under the BAU scenario and would expand to the remaining woodlands, natural forests and grasslands, reflecting vulnerability of these LULC types and potential loss of associated ecosystem service values (ESVs). FCWP scenario would bring competition among other LULC types, particularly more pressure to the grassland ecosystem. Hence, the two scenarios will result in severe LULC dynamics that lead to serious environmental crisis. The SI scenario, with holistic approach, demonstrated that expansion of croplands could vigorously be reduced, remaining forests better conserved and degraded land recovered, resulting in gains of the associated total ESVs. We conclude that a holistic landscape management, i.e. SI, is the best approach to ensure expected production while safeguarding the environment of the studied landscape and elsewhere with similar geographic settings. Further study is suggested to practically test our framework through a research for development approach in a test site so that it can be used as a model area for effective use and conservation of our natural resources. Copyright �

Changing paradigms of anti-VEGF in the Indian scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P Mahesh Shanmugam

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Anti-vascular endothelial growth factors (VEGF agents have revolutionized the treatment of retinal diseases. Use of anti-VEGF agents in the Indian Scenario present some unique challenges considering the absence of compounding pharmacies, poor penetrance of health insurance and limited affordability of the citizens of a developing economy. To study the changing paradigms of anti-VEGF use in the Indian scenario, all articles published by Indian authors, data from web-based surveys amongst Indian vitreo-retinal specialists were reviewed. In the paucity of compounding pharmacies in India, fractionation and injection techniques differ from those of developed countries. Frequent anti-VEGF monotherapy offers the best anatomical and visual results, but economics of scale do not allow the same in the Indian scenario, resulting in PRN dosing and combination of anti-VEGF with laser photocoagulation, being the commonly employed treatment protocols.

Trends and reduction scenarios for Rn 222 concentrations in dwellings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blaauboer, R.O.; Heling, R.

1993-07-01

In the title study the effects of possible measures on the average radon concentration in Dutch dwellings is evaluated. Attention is paid to the trends in building methods, the use of building materials and using the trends as a reference development (scenario 0). A total of seven scenarios has been evaluated. The model that was used was kept rather simple, because most of the parameter values are average values. The measures studied were selected on the basis of cost-effectiveness. All measures are based on reducing the infiltration of radon from the crawl space under the house to the living quarters and reducing the exhalation rates of building materials. The evaluation shows a rather good match with earlier measurements and projections as far as the average radon concentration is concerned. The trend, i.e. the development without taking measures directed at reducing the radon concentration, predicts a slow increase of about 15% until approximately the year 2025. The scenario that is directed at using concrete with low Ra-226 concentrations in new houses projects an end to this trend. Other scenarios reveal that taking measures solely in the existing housing stock would give a substantial decrease in radon concentrations in the near future. The spread sheet model that was developed to evaluate the consequences of the different scenarios projects a possible reduction of the average radon concentration in dwellings with 25% by the year 2025, compared to 1991, if measures, directed at Rn-reduction are applied. If in addition to that concrete with low Ra-226 concentrations is used in new buildings, a reduction of the average radon concentration is projected of about 30%. This would result in an average radon concentration in dwellings of about 23 Bq.m -3 in the future. These reduction percentages have to be handled with some care however, because the effect of the obviously occurring uncertainties in several parameters used, are not yet quite clear. Trends in and the

Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2017-01-01

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories.

Weather scenarios for dose calculations with incomplete meteorological data. V.IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alp, E.; Lam, L.H.; Moran, M.D.

1985-09-01

This report documents a study to substantiate or modify the weather scenarios proposed by the Atomic Energy Control Board Staff Position Paper on meteorological acceptance criteria for estimating the potential radiological consequences of postulated accidents (AECB, 1982) for short-, prolonged-, and long-term releases from ground level and elevated sources. The study examined available meteorological data in Canada to determine whether the AECB-proposed scenarios are sufficiently general that they are appropriate and conservative for any potential nuclear power plant in Canada, but also realistic, i.e., not so conservative that the results of dose calculations using these scenarios would be wholly unrepresentative leading to incorrect design decisions. Three different sets of scenarios were derived using three site-specific data sets from weather stations that are representative of existing nuclear power plants in Canada. When compared, the scenarios for the three sites are not significantly different from each other, especially in terms of trends, considering that they have been based on data from widely differing meteorological regions in Canada. Conservative envelopes of the scenarios for the three sites were taken to give the recommended general weather scenario set. The recommended set was then compared with the AECB proposed scenarios. The recommended scenarios are, in general, conservative

Design and preparation of scenarios for human factors studies in the HAMMLAB

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moracho, M. J.

1999-01-01

In the preparation of experiments for Human Factors studies, the scenarios play an important role. As a matter of fact, scenario effect is often demonstrated in the analysis of results. An experimental study referred to as Experiments' 97 was conducted in the Halden Man Machine LABoratory. In the design of the scenarios for this experiment, an effort was made for producing scenarios in compliance with the objectives of the study. Before the experiment simulations, scenario analysis was conducted and documented. This report presents some of the lessons learned from these activities. It also identifies main issues to be considered in the scenario characterisation and preparation. Examples of the scenarios' design document produced for the Experiments' 97 as well as examples of measure definitions for OPAS (OPerator Assessment System) and PPAS (Plant Performance System) are included in the appendixes (author) (ml)

Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

2012-01-01

The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthias Rosenberg

2014-04-01

��political control“, three scenarios were developed up to the time horizons in 2030 and 2050. They are titled „Trend“, „Tradition and Ecology“ and „Technology and Energy“. These scenarios differ markedly in the degree of the future lignite exploitation, in the use of renewable energy and in the environmental compatibility of the agricultural production. In total, the investigation shows that the integration of the ecosystem services approach into the scenario technology has brought new aspects. However, the procedure became more complex. For the development of the scenarios a precise definition of the driving forces turned out to be essential. The experiences of the project further show that only two or at most three key driving forces (KDF can be distinguished really sensibly or can be looked at in their interactions. It could be shown that from these results itself concrete measures can be derived which support desirable developments or counteract against undesirable effects. By the integration of stakeholders in different working steps, the scenarios can contribute to the sensitization and better perception of future problems and chances of a region.

Response of a multi-stressed Mediterranean river to future climate and socio-economic scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Stefanidis, Konstantinos; Panagopoulos, Yiannis; Mimikou, Maria

2018-06-15

Streams and rivers are among the most threatened ecosystems in Europe due to the combined effects of multiple pressures related to anthropogenic activities. Particularly in the Mediterranean region, changes in hydromorphology along with increased nutrient loadings are known to affect the ecological functions and ecosystem services of streams and rivers with the anticipated climate change being likely to further impair their functionality and structure. In this study, we investigated the combined effects of agricultural driven stressors on the ecology and delivered services of the Pinios river basin in Greece under three future world scenarios developed within the EU funded MARS project. Scenarios are based on combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and refer to early century (2030) and mid-century (2060) representing future climate worlds with particular socioeconomic characteristics. To assess the responses of ecological and ecosystem service indicators to the scenarios we first simulated hydrology and water quality in Pinios with a process-based model. Simulated abiotic stressor parameters (predictors) were linked to two biotic indicators, the macroinvertebrate indicators ASPT and EPT, with empirical modelling based on boosted regression trees and general linear models. Our results showed that the techno world scenario driven by fast economic growth and intensive exploitation of energy resources had the largest impact on both the abiotic status (nutrient loads and concentrations in water) and the biotic indicators. In contrast, the predicted changes under the other two future worlds, consensus and fragmented, were more diverse and were mostly dictated by the projected climate. This work showed that the future scenarios, especially the mid-century ones, had significant impact on both abiotic status and biotic responses underpinning the need for implementing catchment management practices able to mitigate the

Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

2013-09-01

This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

Evaluating options for sustainable energy mixes in South Korea using scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

2013-01-01

To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, coal-fired electricity infrastructure needs to be replaced by low-carbon electricity generation options. Here we examine a range of possible alternative scenarios for sustainable electricity generation in South Korea, considering both physical and economic limits of current technologies. The results show that South Korea cannot achieve a 100% renewable energy mix and requires at least 55 GW of backup capacity. Given that constraint, we modelled seven scenarios: (i) the present condition, (ii) the First National Electricity Plan configuration, (iii) renewable energy (including 5 GW photovoltaic) with fuel cells or (iv) natural gas backup, (v) maximum renewable energy (including 75 GW photovoltaic) with natural gas, (vi) maximum nuclear power, and (vii) nuclear power with natural gas. We then quantify levelised cost of electricity, energy security, greenhouse gas emissions, fresh water consumption, heated water discharge, land transformation, air pollutant emissions, radioactive waste disposal, solid waste disposal and safety issues for each modelled mix. Our analysis shows that the maximum nuclear power scenario yields the fewest overall negative impacts, and the maximum renewable energy scenario with fuel cells would have the highest negative impacts. - Highlights: ► Due to physical limits of renewable sources, renewable energy cannot provide total electricity consumption in South Korea. ► A massive expansion of solar power will act to save only a small amount of backup fuel at greatly increased costs. ► A huge supply of natural gas capacity is essential, due to the absence of feasible large-scale energy storage. ► A pathway to maximize renewable energy causes more environmental and economic disadvantages than the status quo. ► Maximizing nuclear power is the most sustainable option for South Korea

Greenhouse gas emissions for the EU in four future scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lesschen, J.P.; Rienks, W.; Staritsky, I. [Alterra, Wageningen-UR, Wageningen (Netherlands); Eickhout, B.; Prins, A.G. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

2009-12-15

The European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be revised in the near future. A proposed agricultural policy reform will affect many dimensions of the sustainable development of agriculture. One of these dimensions are greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of four scenarios of the future, from the Eururalis study, and the effects of CAP options on GHG emissions from agriculture. The results provide an indication of the range of GHG emissions between the four diverging base scenarios and the differences with current emission levels in Member States and on EU level. Analysis of the possible impact of the measures on GHG emissions showed that this would be much larger from mitigation measures than from CAP options. Full implementation of the mitigation measures could lead to a reduction in GHG emissions from agriculture of 127 Mt CO2 equivalents. This is about a quarter of current GHG emissions from agriculture. Promoting mitigation measures, therefore, is more effective for reducing GHG emissions from agriculture, than influencing income and price subsidies within the CAP. On the global scale, CAP options hardly play a role in total GHG emissions from land use. Much more important are developments in global population, economic growth, policies and technological developments, as depicted in the various scenarios.

Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

2017-01-01

This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-01-01

This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; Falzon, James; Calvin, Katherine

2016-01-01

In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO_2 emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO_2 price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO_2 price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO_2 price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO_2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology

NegaWatt 2011-2050 scenario - Hypotheses and method. Technical report, May 2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-05-01

This report proposes an analysis of the negaWatt 2011 scenario. It describes in detail the methodology adopted to elaborate this prospective scenario, and presents the major part of the hypotheses which structure this scenario. A first part presents the approach and methodology (constraints, scenario, model). The second part addresses the issue of energy saving and energy efficiency through a sector-based analysis (housing and office building, transports, industrial and agricultural production). The third part studies the substitution by renewable energies through a supply analysis: energy production based on biomass, renewable energies, and fissile and fossil energies. It outlines the major role of grids in the supply-demand balance. The results of the negaWatt 2011 scenario are presented in terms of final energy, primary energies, and impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses and results related to the different sectors (building, transports, industry and agriculture, energy production) are given in appendix

Implications of climate change scenarios for soil erosion potential in the USA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Phillips, D L; White, D; Johnson, B [US EPA, Corvallis, OR (United States). Environmental Research Laboratory

1993-07-01

Atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) project that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may result in global changes in temperature and precipitation over the next 40-100 years. Equilibrium climate scenarios from four GCMs run under doubled CO[sub 2] conditions were examined for their effect on the climatic potential for sheet and rill erosion in the conterminous USA. Changes in the mean annual rainfall factor (R) in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) were calculated for each cropland, pastureland and rangeland sample point in the 1987 National Resources Inventory. Projected annual precipitation changes were assumed to be from differences in either storm frequency or storm intensity. With all other USLE factors held constant these changes in R translated to changes in the sheet and rill erosion national average of +2 to +16 per cent in croplands, -2 to +10 per cent in pasturelands and 5 to +22 per cent in rangelands under the eight scenarios. Land with erosion rates above the soil loss tolerance (T) level and land classified as highly erodible also increased slightly. These results show the range of sensitivity of soil erosion potential by water under projected climate change scenarios. However, actual changes in soil erosion could be mitigated by management practices, or possibly by increased crop growth and residue production under higher atmospheric CO[sub 2] concentrations.

Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Mazzorana

2009-02-01

Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

[GIS and scenario analysis aid to water pollution control planning of river basin].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shao-ping; Cheng, Sheng-tong; Jia, Hai-feng; Ou, Zhi-dan; Tan, Bin

2004-07-01

The forward and backward algorithms for watershed water pollution control planning were summarized in this paper as well as their advantages and shortages. The spatial databases of water environmental function region, pollution sources, monitoring sections and sewer outlets were built with ARCGIS8.1 as the platform in the case study of Ganjiang valley, Jiangxi province. Based on the principles of the forward algorithm, four scenarios were designed for the watershed pollution control. Under these scenarios, ten sets of planning schemes were generated to implement cascade pollution source control. The investment costs of sewage treatment for these schemes were estimated by means of a series of cost-effective functions; with pollution source prediction, the water quality was modeled with CSTR model for each planning scheme. The modeled results of different planning schemes were visualized through GIS to aid decision-making. With the results of investment cost and water quality attainment as decision-making accords and based on the analysis of the economic endurable capacity for water pollution control in Ganjiang river basin, two optimized schemes were proposed. The research shows that GIS technology and scenario analysis can provide a good guidance to the synthesis, integrity and sustainability aspects for river basin water quality planning.

Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Ke; Wang Can; Lu Xuedu; Chen Jining

2007-01-01

The international climate community has begun to assess a range of possible options for strengthening the international climate change effort after 2012. Analysis of the potential for sector-based emissions reduction and relevant mitigation options will provide the necessary background information for the debate. In order to assess the CO 2 abatement potential of China's steel industry, a model was developed using LEAP software to generate 3 different CO 2 emission scenarios for the industry from 2000 to 2030. The abatement potentials of different scenarios were compared, and their respective feasibilities were assessed according to the cost information. High priority abatement measures were then identified. The results show that the average CO 2 abatement per year in the Recent Policy scenario and in the New Policy scenario, compared with the reference scenario, are 51 and 107 million tons, respectively. The corresponding total incremental costs are 9.34 and 80.95 billion dollars. It is concluded that there is great potential for CO 2 abatement in China's steel industry. Adjusting the structure of the industry and technological advancement will play an important role in emissions reduction. Successful implementation of current sustainable development policies and measures will result in CO 2 abatement at a low cost. However, to achieve higher levels of abatement, the cost will increase dramatically. In the near future, specific energy conservation technologies such as dry coke quenching, exhaust gas and heat recovery equipment will be of great significance. However, taking a long term perspective, emissions reduction will rely more on the adjustment of production processes and the application of more modern large scale plants. Advanced blast furnace technology will inevitably play an important role

Technology interactions among low-carbon energy technologies: What can we learn from a large number of scenarios?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McJeon, Haewon C.; Clarke, Leon; Kyle, Page; Wise, Marshall; Hackbarth, Andrew; Bryant, Benjamin P.; Lempert, Robert J.

2011-01-01

Advanced low-carbon energy technologies can substantially reduce the cost of stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Understanding the interactions between these technologies and their impact on the costs of stabilization can help inform energy policy decisions. Many previous studies have addressed this challenge by exploring a small number of representative scenarios that represent particular combinations of future technology developments. This paper uses a combinatorial approach in which scenarios are created for all combinations of the technology development assumptions that underlie a smaller, representative set of scenarios. We estimate stabilization costs for 768 runs of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), based on 384 different combinations of assumptions about the future performance of technologies and two stabilization goals. Graphical depiction of the distribution of stabilization costs provides first-order insights about the full data set and individual technologies. We apply a formal scenario discovery method to obtain more nuanced insights about the combinations of technology assumptions most strongly associated with high-cost outcomes. Many of the fundamental insights from traditional representative scenario analysis still hold under this comprehensive combinatorial analysis. For example, the importance of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the substitution effect among supply technologies are consistently demonstrated. The results also provide more clarity regarding insights not easily demonstrated through representative scenario analysis. For example, they show more clearly how certain supply technologies can provide a hedge against high stabilization costs, and that aggregate end-use efficiency improvements deliver relatively consistent stabilization cost reductions. Furthermore, the results indicate that a lack of CCS options combined with lower technological advances in the buildings sector or the transportation sector is

Leaching behaviour of incineration bottom ash in a reuse scenario: 12years-field data vs. lab test results.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Gianfilippo, Martina; Hyks, Jiri; Verginelli, Iason; Costa, Giulia; Hjelmar, Ole; Lombardi, Francesco

2018-03-01

Several types of standardized laboratory leaching tests have been developed during the past few decades to evaluate the leaching behaviour of waste materials as a function of different parameters, such as the pH of the eluate and the liquid to solid ratio. However, the link between the results of these tests and leaching data collected from the field (e.g. in disposal or reuse scenarios) is not always straightforward. In this work, we compare data obtained from an on-going large scale field trial, in which municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash is being tested as road sub-base material, with the results obtained from percolation column and pH-dependence laboratory leaching tests carried out on the bottom ash at the beginning of the test. The comparisons reported in this paper show that for soluble substances (e.g. Cl, K and SO 4 ), percolation column tests can provide a good indication of the release expected in the field with deviations usually within a factor of 3. For metals characterized by a solubility-controlled release, i.e. that depends more on eluate pH than the liquid to solid ratio applied, the results of pH-dependence tests describe more accurately the eluate concentration trends observed in the field with deviations that in most cases (around 80%) are within one order of magnitude (see e.g. Al and Cd). The differences between field and lab-scale data might be in part ascribed to the occurrence in the field of weathering reactions (e.g. carbonation) but also to microbial decomposition of organic matter that modifying leachate pH affect the solubility of several constituents (e.g. Ca, Ba and Cr). Besides, weathering reactions can result in enhanced adsorption of fulvic acids to iron/aluminum (hydr)oxides, leading to a decrease in the leaching of fulvic acids and hence of elements such as Cu, Ni and Pb that strongly depend on DOC leaching. Overall, this comparison shows that percolation column tests and pH-dependence tests can represent a reliable

How Can China Lighten Up? Urbanization, Industrialization and Energy Demand Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aden, Nathaniel T.; Zheng, Nina; Fridley, David G.

2009-07-01

Urbanization has re-shaped China's economy, society, and energy system. Between 1990 and 2007 China added 290 million new urban residents, bringing the total urbanization rate to 45%. This population adjustment spurred energy demand for construction of new buildings and infrastructure, as well as additional residential use as rural biomass was replaced with urban commercial energy services. Primary energy demand grew at an average annual rate of 10% between 2000 and 2007. Urbanization's effect on energy demand was compounded by the boom in domestic infrastructure investment, and in the export trade following World Trade Organization (WTO) accession in 2001. Industry energy consumption was most directly affected by this acceleration. Whereas industry comprised 32% of 2007 U.S. energy use, it accounted for 75% of China's 2007 energy consumption. Five sub-sectors accounted for 78% of China's industry energy use in 2007: iron and steel, energy extraction and processing, chemicals, cement, and non-ferrous metals. Ferrous metals alone accounted for 25% of industry and 18% of total primary energy use. The rapid growth of heavy industry has led China to become by far the world's largest producer of steel, cement, aluminum, and other energy-intensive commodities. However, the energy efficiency of heavy industrial production continues to lag world best practice levels. This study uses scenario analysis to quantify the impact of urbanization and trade on industrial and residential energy consumption from 2000 to 2025. The BAU scenario assumed 67% urbanization, frozen export amounts of heavy industrial products, and achievement of world best practices by 2025. The China Lightens Up (CLU) scenario assumed 55% urbanization, zero net exports of heavy industrial products, and more aggressive efficiency improvements by 2025. The five dominant industry sub-sectors were modeled in both scenarios using a LEAP energy end-use accounting model. The results of

Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

2016-04-12

Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

Futures of elderly care in Iran: A protocol with scenario approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Goharinezhad, Salime; Maleki, Mohammadreza; Baradaran, Hamid Reza; Ravaghi, Hamid

2016-01-01

Background: The number of people aged 60 and older is increasing faster than other age groups worldwide. Iran will experience a sharp aging population increase in the next decades, and this will pose new challenges to the healthcare system. Since providing high quality aged-care services would be the major concern of the policymakers, this question arises that what types of aged care services should be organized in the coming 10 years? This protocol has been designed to develop a set of scenarios for the future of elderly care in Iran. Methods: In this study, intuitive logics approach and Global Business Network (GBN) model were used to develop scenarios for elderly care in Iran. In terms of perspective, the scenarios in this approach are normative, qualitative with respect to methodology and deductive in constructing the process of scenarios. The three phases of GBN model are as follows: 1) Orientation: Identifying strategic levels, stakeholders, participants and time horizon; 2) Exploration: Identifying the driving forces and key uncertainties; 3) Synthesis: Defining the scenario logics and constructing scenario storyline. Results: Presently, two phases are completed and the results will be published in mid-2016. Conclusion: This study delivers a comprehensive framework for taking appropriate actions in providing care for the elderly in the future. Moreover, policy makers should specify and provide the full range of services for the elderly, and in doing so, the scenarios and key findings of this study could be of valuable help.

Scenarios and design: Scoping the dialogue space

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Selin, Cynthia Lea; Kimbell, Lucy; Ramirez, Rafael

2015-01-01

This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinar......'s contribution is to suggest how scenario planning can engage with design, resulting in new opportunities for research and projects. These modes of engagement provide a framing to explore dialogues between other management disciplines.......This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinary...... management research, which struggles to connect research and practice. The authors describe how they brought the two fields together. We outline how we convened, designed and facilitated the fourth Oxford Futures Forum held in May 2014. This event brought together leading practitioners and researchers...

Scenario Analysis on Climate Change Impacts of Urban Land Expansion under Different Urbanization Patterns: A Case Study of Wuhan Metropolitan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinli Ke

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Urban land expansion plays an important role in climate change. It is significant to select a reasonable urban expansion pattern to mitigate the impact of urban land expansion on the regional climate in the rapid urbanization process. In this paper, taking Wuhan metropolitan as the case study area, and three urbanization patterns scenarios are designed to simulate spatial patterns of urban land expansion in the future using the Partitioned and Asynchronous Cellular Automata Model. Then, simulation results of land use are adjusted and inputted into WRF (Weather Research and Forecast model to simulate regional climate change. The results show that: (1 warming effect is strongest under centralized urbanization while it is on the opposite under decentralized scenario; (2 the warming effect is stronger and wider in centralized urbanization scenario than in decentralized urbanization scenario; (3 the impact trends of urban land use expansion on precipitation are basically the same under different scenarios; (4 and spatial distribution of rainfall was more concentrated under centralized urbanization scenario, and there is a rainfall center of wider scope, greater intensity. Accordingly, it can be concluded that decentralized urbanization is a reasonable urbanization pattern to mitigate climate change in rapid urbanization period.

Scenario development methods and practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

Performance Analysis of Relays in LTE for a Realistic Suburban Deployment Scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Coletti, Claudio; Mogensen, Preben; Irmer, Ralf

2011-01-01

Relays are likely to play an important role in the deployment of Beyond 3G networks, such as LTE-Advanced, thanks to the possibility of effectively extending Macro network coverage and fulfilling the expected high data-rate requirements. Up until now, the relay technology potential and its cost......-effectiveness have been widely investigated in the literature, considering mainly statistical deployment scenarios, like regular networks with uniform traffic distribution. This paper is envisaged to illustrate the performances of different relay technologies (In-Band/Out-band) in a realistic suburban network...... scenario with real Macro site positions, user density map and spectrum band availability. Based on a proposed heuristic deployment algorithm, results show that deploying In-band relays can significantly reduce the user outage if high backhaul link quality is ensured, whereas Out-band relaying and the usage...

Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.

2014-05-01

Since the era of industrialization, concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have tremendously increased in the atmosphere, as a result of the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, improper waste management, transport, and other economic activities (Boer, 2008).This has led to a great accumulation of greenhouse gases, forming a blanket around the Earth which contributes in the so-called "Global Warming". Over the last decades, wastewater treatment has developed strongly and has become a very important asset in mitigating the impact of domestic and industrial effluents on the environment. There are many different forms of wastewater treatment, and one of the most effective treatment technology in terms COD, N and P removal, activated sludge is often criticized for its high energy use. Some other treatment concepts have a more "green" image, but it is not clear whether this image is justified based on their greenhouse gas emission. This study focuses on the estimation of GHG emissions of four different wastewater treatment configurations, both conventional and innovative systems namely: (1) Harnaschpolder, (2) Sneek, (3) EIER-Ouaga and (4) Siddhipur. This analysis is based on COD mass balance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines for estimating CO2 and CH4, and literature review. Furthermore, the energy requirements for each of the systems were estimated based on energy survey. The study showed that an estimated daily average of 87 g of CO2 equivalent, ranging between 38 to 192 g, was derived to be the per capita CO2 emission for the four different wastewater treatment scenarios. Despite the fact that no electrical energy is used in the treatment process, the GHG emission from EIER Ouaga anaerobic pond systems is found to be the highest compared to the three other scenarios analysed. It was estimated 80% higher than the most favourable scenario (Sneek). Moreover, the results indicate that the GHGs emitted from these WWTPs are

BIOMOVS test scenario model comparison using BIOPATH

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grogan, H.A.; Van Dorp, F.

1986-07-01

This report presents the results of the irrigation test scenario, presented in the BIOMOVS intercomparison study, calculated by the computer code BIOPATH. This scenario defines a constant release of Tc-99 and Np-237 into groundwater that is used for irrigation. The system of compartments used to model the biosphere is based upon an area in northern Switzerland and is essentially the same as that used in Projekt Gewaehr to assess the radiological impact of a high level waste repository. Two separate irrigation methods are considered, namely ditch and overhead irrigation. Their influence on the resultant activities calculated in the groundwater, soil and different foodproducts, as a function of time, is evaluated. The sensitivity of the model to parameter variations is analysed which allows a deeper understanding of the model chain. These results are assessed subjectively in a first effort to realistically quantify the uncertainty associated with each calculated activity. (author)

Runoff scenarios of the Ötz catchment (Tyrol, Austria) considering climate change driven changes of the cryosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Helfricht, Kay; Schneeberger, Klaus; Welebil, Irene; Schöber, Johannes; Huss, Matthias; Formayer, Herbert; Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneider, Katrin

2014-05-01

The seasonal distribution of runoff in alpine catchments is markedly influenced by the cryospheric contribution (snow and ice). Long-term climate change will alter these reservoirs and consequently have an impact on the water balance. Glacierized catchments like the Ötztal (Tyrol, Austria) are particularly sensitive to changes in the cryosphere and the hydrological changes related to them. The Ötztal possesses an outstanding role in Austrian and international cryospheric research and reacts sensitive to changes in hydrology due to its socio-economic structure (e.g. importance of tourism, hydro-power). In this study future glacier scenarios for the runoff calculations in the Ötztal catchment are developed. In addition to climatological scenario data, glacier scenarios were established for the hydrological simulation of future runoff. Glacier outlines and glacier surface elevation changes of the Austrian Glacier Inventory were used to derive present ice thickness distribution and scenarios of glacier area distribution. Direct effects of climate change (i.e. temperature and precipitation change) and indirect effects in terms of variations in the cryosphere were considered for the analysis of the mean runoff and particularly flood frequencies. Runoff was modelled with the hydrological model HQSim, which was calibrated for the runoff gauges at Brunau, Obergurgl and Vent. For a sensitivity study, the model was driven by separate glacier scenarios. Keeping glacier area constant, variable climate input was used to separate the effect of climate sensitivity. Results of the combination of changed glacier areas and changed climate input were subsequently analysed. Glacier scenarios show first a decrease in volume, before glacier area shrinks. The applied method indicates a 50% ice volume loss by 2050 relative to today. Further, model results show a reduction in glacier volume and area to less than 20% of the current ice cover towards the end of the 21st century. The effect

Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network".

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexsandro M Carvalho

Full Text Available The networks of sexual contacts together with temporal interactions play key roles in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, data for this kind of network is scarce. One of the few exceptions, the "Romantic network", is a complete structure of a real sexual network in a high school. Based on many network measurements the authors of the work have concluded that it does not correspond to any other model network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have an effect on the diffusion throughout networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes. The aim is to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI. We performed simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve over time. In the static case, we compared the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. In the dynamic scenario, we considered the dynamics of formation of pairs in the Romantic network and we studied the propagation of the diseases. Our results suggest that although this real network cannot be labeled as a Watts-Strogatz network, it is, in regard to the propagation of an STI, very similar to a high disorder network. Additionally, we found that: the effect that any individual contacting an externally infected subject is to make the network closer to a fully connected one, the higher the contact degree of patient zero the faster the spread of the outbreaks, and the epidemic impact is proportional to the numbers of contacts per unit time. Finally, our simulations confirm that relationship timing severely reduced the final outbreak size, and also, show a clear correlation between the average degree and the outbreak size over time.

Energy consumption in industry, 1990 - 2035 - Scenarios I to IV for various sensitivities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baumgartner, W.; Ebert, O.; Weber, F.

2006-12-01

This comprehensive, illustrated report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the results of a study with respect to industrial energy consumption which provided scenarios for future Swiss energy consumption. Four scenarios were elaborated: Continuation of present policy, increased co-operation between state and industry, more ambitious energy policy priorities and a scenario with even more ambitious goals - the so-called '2000 Watt Society'. For each of these scenarios several variants and a selection of sub-variants were defined, including increased prices, higher gross domestic product GDP, warmer climate and various carbon levies. The specific energy consumption of 16 different industrial sectors is examined and the effects of the various scenarios on several factors are considered. Data and results are presented in tabular and graphical form. Various measures that could influence energy consumption are listed and discussed, as are the modelling methods employed and the plausibility of the results obtained

Scenario Simulation and the Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Beijing, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiran Han

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Land use and land cover (LULC models are essential for analyzing LULC change and predicting land use requirements and are valuable for guiding reasonable land use planning and management. However, each LULC model has its own advantages and constraints. In this paper, we explore the characteristics of LULC change and simulate future land use demand by combining a CLUE-S model with a Markov model to deal with some shortcomings of existing LULC models. Using Beijing as a case study, we describe the related driving factors from land-adaptive variables, regional spatial variables and socio-economic variables and then simulate future land use scenarios from 2010 to 2020, which include a development scenario (natural development and rapid development and protection scenarios (ecological and cultivated land protection. The results indicate good consistency between predicted results and actual land use situations according to a Kappa statistic. The conversion of cultivated land to urban built-up land will form the primary features of LULC change in the future. The prediction for land use demand shows the differences under different scenarios. At higher elevations, the geographical environment limits the expansion of urban built-up land, but the conversion of cultivated land to built-up land in mountainous areas will be more prevalent by 2020; Beijing, however, still faces the most pressure in terms of ecological and cultivated land protection.

Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

2005-09-07

difference was that LBNL started working with the AEO 2004NEMS code and EIA was using AEO 2005 NEMS code. Unlike the High Price Scenario the Carbon Cap scenario gives a radically different forecast than the Reference Scenario. NEMS-LBNL proved that it can handle these alternative scenarios. However, results are price inelastic (for both oil and natural gas prices) within the price range evaluated. Perhaps even higher price paths would lead to a distinctly different forecast than the Reference Scenario. On the other hand, the Carbon Cap Scenario behaves more like an alternative future. The future in the Carbon Cap Scenario has higher electricity prices, reduced driving, more renewable capacity, and reduced energy consumption. The next step for this work is to evaluate the EE benefits under each of the three scenarios. Comparing those three sets of predicted benefits will indicate how much uncertainty is inherent within this sort of deterministic forecasting.

Integrated Scenarios of Regional Development in Two Semi-Arid States of North-Eastern Brazil

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Döll, Petra; Krol, Martinus S.

2002-01-01

Scenario analysis of the future is an important tool for supporting sustainability-oriented regional planning. To assist regional planning in two federal states in semi-arid North-eastern Brazil, Ceará and Piauí, we developed integrated qualitative¿quantitative scenarios that show potential

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

2017-01-01

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Selin, Cynthia Lea

2006-01-01

formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

Energy perspectives 2035 - Volume 2, scenarios I to IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchner, A.

2007-01-01

This comprehensive report published by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the four scenarios concerning future developments in Swiss energy supply policy. The four complex scenarios include variants entitled 'business as usual', 'increased co-operation', 'new priorities' and 'on the way to a 2000-Watt society'. These scenarios deal with the development of energy demand and electricity offerings in Switzerland for the period 1990 to 2035. They are reviewed in the light of various sensitivity factors. These sensitivity factors include a high GDP, oil prices of 50 US-dollars per barrel and a warmer climate. The report presents the results of the model calculations made. First of all, the report takes a look at the motivation and aims behind the work and discusses the modelling methods, system limits and conventions used and the possibilities offered by the perspectives as well as the limits encountered. The four scenarios are then presented and discussed in detail. Implementation variants in the private, services, industrial and traffic sectors are discussed and various electricity supply variants are presented, as are the associated environmental issues involved. The scenarios are compared with each other and pricing and security of supply issues are discussed. Finally, a short synopsis of the scenarios is presented and decision criteria are discussed as are implementation instruments. Ethical dilemmas and the risks involved are noted

Scenario based approach for multiple source Tsunami Hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

Science.gov (United States)

Wronna, M.; Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.

2015-08-01

In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines - Portugal, one of the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, runup and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite of Horseshoe and Marques Pombal fault as the worst case scenario. It governs the aggregate scenario with about 60 % and inundates an area of 3.5 km2.

Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J. [Idaho National Laboratory, Roberts and Folkers Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID 83404 (United States)

2006-07-01

The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

2006-01-01

The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Landucci, Gabriele; Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Argenti, Francesca; Cozzani, Valerio

2017-01-01

The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect. - Highlights: • A methodology was developed to account for safety barrier performance in escalation prevention. • The methodology allows quantitative assessment accounting for safety barrier performance. • A detailed analysis of transient mitigated scenarios is allowed by the developed procedure. • The procedure allows accounting for safety barrier performance in QRA of domino scenarios. • An important reduction in the risk due to domino scenarios is evidenced when considering safety barriers.

CLASS: Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mouginot, B.; Thiolliere, N.

2015-01-01

The nuclear reactor simulation community has to perform complex electronuclear scenario simulations. To avoid constraints coming from the existing powerful scenario software such as COSI, VISION or FAMILY, the open source Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulation (CLASS) has been developed. The main asset of CLASS is its ability to include any type of reactor, whether the system is innovative or standard. A reactor is fully described by its evolution database which should contain a set of different validated fuel compositions in order to simulate transitional scenarios. CLASS aims to be a useful tool to study scenarios involving Generation-IV reactors as well as innovative fuel cycles, like the thorium cycle. In addition to all standard key objects required by an electronuclear scenario simulation (the isotopic vector, the reactor, the fuel storage and the fabrication units), CLASS also integrates two new specific modules: fresh fuel evolution and recycled fuel fabrication. The first module, dealing with fresh fuel evolution, is implemented in CLASS by solving Bateman equations built from a database induced cross-sections. The second module, which incorporates the fabrication of recycled fuel to CLASS, can be defined by user priorities and/or algorithms. By default, it uses a linear Pu equivalent-method, which allows predicting, from the isotopic composition, the maximum burn-up accessible for a set type of fuel. This paper presents the basis of the CLASS scenario, the fuel method applied to a MOX fuel and an evolution module benchmark based on the French electronuclear fleet from 1977 to 2012. Results of the CLASS calculation were compared with the inventory made and published by the ANDRA organisation in 2012. For UOX used fuels, the ANDRA reported 12006 tonnes of heavy metal in stock, including cooling, versus 18500 tonnes of heavy metal predicted by CLASS. The large difference is easily explained by the presence of 56 tonnes of plutonium already separated

Study on scenario evaluation methodology for decommissioning nuclear facilities using fuzzy logic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuhashi, Kazuya; Yanagihara, Satoshi

2015-01-01

Since there are many scenarios of the process from start to completion of a decommissioning project, it is important to study scenarios of decommissioning by evaluating such properties as safety, cost, and technology. An optimum scenario with the highest feasibility in accordance with the facility and environmental conditions should be selected on the basis of the results of the study. For analyzing a scenario of decommissioning, we prepared structured work packages by using the work breakdown structures (WBS) method together with qualitative evaluation of the technologies being applied to work packages located at the bottom (the third level) of the WBS. A calculation model was constructed to evaluate the feasibility of a scenario where fuzzy logic is applied to derive a score of technology performance and TOPSIS is applied for getting a feasibility grade of the scenario from technical performance scoring. As a case study, the model was applied to the debris removal scenario of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant to confirm its applicability. Two scenarios, underwater and in-air debris removal cases, were characterized by extracting the work packages with the lowest feasibility and by obtaining total average scores of the scenarios. It is confirmed that the methodology developed is useful for the scenario evaluation of decommissioning nuclear facilities. (author)

Development of scenarios for emergency exercises and the systematic evaluation of the results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schmidtborn, I.; Playfair, A. [Colenco Power Consulting AG, Baden (Switzerland)

2001-07-01

This paper describes a systematic method for preparing emergency exercises for the training of power station personnel in the establishment of internal and external communications and the initiation of emergency measures in the case of beyond design basis accidents. The exercises are planned over a period of time in such a way that a wide range of scenarios are covered, keeping repetition to a minimum and the work for preparing the individual exercises is reduced as far as possible. To give an idea of the variety of exercises that can be developed using this method, a selection of the exercise titles that have been used by Colenco over the past 10 years is given. A great deal of importance has to be attached to the evaluation of the exercises.

Development of scenarios for emergency exercises and the systematic evaluation of the results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmidtborn, I.; Playfair, A.

2001-01-01

This paper describes a systematic method for preparing emergency exercises for the training of power station personnel in the establishment of internal and external communications and the initiation of emergency measures in the case of beyond design basis accidents. The exercises are planned over a period of time in such a way that a wide range of scenarios are covered, keeping repetition to a minimum and the work for preparing the individual exercises is reduced as far as possible. To give an idea of the variety of exercises that can be developed using this method, a selection of the exercise titles that have been used by Colenco over the past 10 years is given. A great deal of importance has to be attached to the evaluation of the exercises

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

2017-01-01

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

Investigating 100% renewable energy supply at regional level using scenario analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annicka Waenn

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Energy modelling work in Ireland to date has mainly taken place at a national level. A regional modelling approach is necessary however, for Ireland to reach the ambitious targets for renewable energy and emissions reduction. This paper explores the usefulness of the energy modelling tool EnergyPLAN in investigating the energy system of the South West Region of Ireland. This paper estimates a 10.5% current renewable energy share of energy use, with 40% renewable electricity. We build and assess a reference scenario and three renewable energy scenarios from a technological and resources perspective. The results show that sufficient resources are available for the South West Region energy system to become 100% renewable and quantifies the land-use implications. Moreover, EnergyPLAN can be a useful tool in exploring different technical solutions. However, thorough investigations of as many alternatives as possible, is necessary before major investments are made in a future energy system.

Phenomenology of the minimal inflation scenario: inflationary trajectories and particle production

CERN Document Server

Alvarez-Gaume, Luis; Jimenez, Raul

2012-01-01

We discuss the phenomenology of the minimal inflation scenario. We concentrate on two aspects: inflationary trajectories and particle production. Our findings can be summarized in two main results: first, that inflationary trayectories that are very flat and provide enough number of e-foldings are very natural in the scenario without fine tunning. We present a general formalism to identify attractors in multi-field inflation regardless of trajectories fulfilling the slow-roll conditions. We then explore particle production in the model and show how the inflaton naturally transmutes into the current dark matter particle, thus providing a mechanism to identify the inflaton today: it is the dark matter. One interesting feature of our model is that it provides a novel mechanism to generate particles and entropy in the universe: the filling of the Fermi sphere up to a given momentum pF due to the sea of goldstinos that are an important part of the matter generated after inflation. With this mechanism in hand we pr...

Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

2011-01-01

The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Snellman, Margit; Ikonen, Ari; Smith, Paul

2014-01-01

TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Huber, Veronika; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Ryti, Niilo R I; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cesar Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Iñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Dung Do; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben

2017-12-01

Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat

Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buchholtz, Mikael

2005-01-01

The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Z.

1992-01-01

Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen R. Carpenter

2006-06-01

Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

Model-Based Military Scenario Management for Defence Capability

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Gori, Ronnie; Chen, Pin; Pozgay, Angela

2004-01-01

.... This paper describes initial work towards the development of an information model that links scenario and capability related information, and the results of capability analysis and experimentation...

Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET structured skills training in Armenia, utilising models and reality based scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Israelyan Musheg

2002-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality rates in Western Europe have fallen significantly over the last 50 years. Maternal mortality now averages 10 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births but in some of the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union, the ratio is nearly 4 times higher. The availability of skilled attendants to prevent, detect and manage major obstetric complications may be the single most important factor in preventing maternal deaths. A modern, multidisciplinary, scenario and model based training programme has been established in the UK (Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET and allows specialist obstetricians to learn or revise the undertaking of procedures using models, and to have their skills tested in scenarios. Methods Given the success of the MOET course in the UK, the organisers were keen to evaluate it in another setting (Armenia. Pre-course knowledge and practice questionnaires were administered. In an exploratory analysis, post-course results were compared to pre-course answers obtained by the same interviewer. Results All candidates showed an improvement in post-course scores. The range was far narrower afterwards (167–188 than before (85–129.5. In the individual score analysis only two scenarios showed a non-significant change (cord prolapse and breech delivery. Conclusion This paper demonstrates the reliability of the model based scenarios, with a highly significant improvement in obstetric emergency management. However, clinical audit will be required to measure the full impact of training by longer term follow up. Audit of delays, specific obstetric complications, referrals and near misses may all be amenable to review.

Land use change modeling through scenario-based cellular automata Markov: improving spatial forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Jahanishakib, Fatemeh; Mirkarimi, Seyed Hamed; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul; Poodat, Fatemeh

2018-05-08

Efficient land use management requires awareness of past changes, present actions, and plans for future developments. Part of these requirements is achieved using scenarios that describe a future situation and the course of changes. This research aims to link scenario results with spatially explicit and quantitative forecasting of land use development. To develop land use scenarios, SMIC PROB-EXPERT and MORPHOL methods were used. It revealed eight scenarios as the most probable. To apply the scenarios, we considered population growth rate and used a cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC) model to implement the quantified changes described by each scenario. For each scenario, a set of landscape metrics was used to assess the ecological integrity of land use classes in terms of fragmentation and structural connectivity. The approach enabled us to develop spatial scenarios of land use change and detect their differences for choosing the most integrated landscape pattern in terms of landscape metrics. Finally, the comparison between paired forecasted scenarios based on landscape metrics indicates that scenarios 1-1, 2-2, 3-2, and 4-1 have a more suitable integrity. The proposed methodology for developing spatial scenarios helps executive managers to create scenarios with many repetitions and customize spatial patterns in real world applications and policies.

A Novel Cooperation-Based Network Coding Scheme for Walking Scenarios in WBANs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongyun Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In Wireless Body Area Networks (WBANs, the tradeoff between network throughput and energy efficiency remains a key challenge. Most current transmission schemes try to cope with the challenge from the perspective of general Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs, which may not take the peculiarities of WBAN channels into account. In this paper, we take advantage of the correlation of on-body channels in walking scenarios to achieve a better tradeoff between throughput and energy consumption. We first analyze the characteristics of on-body channels based on realistic channel gain datasets, which are collected by our customized wireless transceivers in walking scenarios. The analytical results confirm the rationale of our newly proposed transmission scheme A3NC, which explores the combination of the aggregative allocation (AA mechanism in MAC layer and the Analog Network Coding (ANC technique in PHY layer. Both theoretical analyses and simulation results show that the A3NC scheme achieves significant improvement in upload throughput and energy efficiency, compared to the conventional approaches.

Impact of water management practice scenarios on wastewater flow and contaminant concentration.

Science.gov (United States)

Marleni, N; Gray, S; Sharma, A; Burn, S; Muttil, N

2015-03-15

Due to frequent droughts and rapid population growth in urban areas, the adoption of practices to reduce the usage of fresh water is on the rise. Reduction in usage of fresh water can be achieved through various local water management practices (WMP) such as Water Demand Management (WDM) and use of alternative water sources such as Greywater Recycling (GR) and Rainwater Harvesting (RH). While the positive effects of WMPs have been widely acknowledged, the implementation of WMPs is also likely to lower the wastewater flow and increase the concentration of contaminants in sewage. These in turn can lead to increases in sewer problems such as odour and corrosion. This paper analyses impacts of various WMP scenarios on wastewater flow and contaminant load. The Urban Volume and Quality (UVQ) model was used to simulate wastewater flow and the associated wastewater contaminants from different WMP scenarios. The wastewater parameters investigated were those which influence odour and corrosion problems in sewerage networks due to the formation of hydrogen sulphide. These parameters are: chemical oxygen demand (COD), nitrate (NO3(-)), sulphate (SO4(2-)), sulphide (S(2-)) and iron (Fe) that were contributed by the households (not including the biochemical process in sewer pipe). The results will help to quantify the impact of WMP scenarios on odour and corrosion in sewerage pipe networks. Results show that the implementation of a combination of WDM and GR had highly increased the concentration of all selected contaminant that triggered the formation of hydrogen sulphide, namely COD, sulphate and sulphide. On the other hand, the RH scenario had the least increase in the concentration of the contaminants, except iron concentrations. The increase in iron concentrations is actually beneficial because it inhibits the formation of hydrogen sulphide. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in land-uses and ecosystem services under multi-scenarios simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jingya; Li, Jing; Qin, Keyu; Zhou, Zixiang; Yang, Xiaonan; Li, Ting

2017-05-15

Social economy of China has been rapidly developing for more than 30years with efficient reforms and policies being issued. Societal developments have resulted in a greater use of many natural resources to the extent that the ecosystem can no longer self-regulate, thus severely damaging the balance of the ecosystem itself. This in turn has led to a deterioration in people's living environments. Our research is based on a combination of climate scenarios presented in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and policy scenarios, including the one-child policy and carbon tax policy. We adopted Land Change Modeler of IDRISI software to simulate and analyze land-use change under 16 future scenarios in 2050. Carbon sequestration, soil conservation and water yields were quantified, based on those land-use maps and different ecosystem models. We also analyzed trade-offs and synergy among each ecosystem service and discussed why those interactions happened. The results show that: (1) Global climate change has a strong influence on future changes in land-use. (2) Carbon sequestration, water yield and soil conservation have a mutual relationship in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region. (3) Climate change and implementation of policy have a conspicuous impact on the changes in ecosystem services in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region. This paper can be used as a reference for further related research, and provide a reliable basis for achieving the sustainable development of the ecosystem. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xin; Wang, Sufen; Xue, Han; Singh, Vijay P

2015-01-01

Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET) response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1) and summer maize (scenario 2) by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China.

Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xin Liu

Full Text Available Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1 and summer maize (scenario 2 by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China.

Scenarios reveal pathways to sustain future ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape.

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, Jiangxiao; Carpenter, Stephen R; Booth, Eric G; Motew, Melissa; Zipper, Samuel C; Kucharik, Christopher J; Chen, Xi; Loheide, Steven P; Seifert, Jenny; Turner, Monica G

2018-01-01

Sustaining food production, water quality, soil retention, flood, and climate regulation in agricultural landscapes is a pressing global challenge given accelerating environmental changes. Scenarios are stories about plausible futures, and scenarios can be integrated with biophysical simulation models to explore quantitatively how the future might unfold. However, few studies have incorporated a wide range of drivers (e.g., climate, land-use, management, population, human diet) in spatially explicit, process-based models to investigate spatial-temporal dynamics and relationships of a portfolio of ecosystem services. Here, we simulated nine ecosystem services (three provisioning and six regulating services) at 220 × 220 m from 2010 to 2070 under four contrasting scenarios in the 1,345-km 2 Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) using Agro-IBIS, a dynamic model of terrestrial ecosystem processes, biogeochemistry, water, and energy balance. We asked (1) How does ecosystem service supply vary among alternative future scenarios? (2) Where on the landscape is the provision of ecosystem services most susceptible to future social-ecological changes? (3) Among alternative future scenarios, are relationships (i.e., trade-offs, synergies) among food production, water, and biogeochemical services consistent over time? Our results showed that food production varied substantially with future land-use choices and management, and its trade-offs with water quality and soil retention persisted under most scenarios. However, pathways to mitigate or even reverse such trade-offs through technological advances and sustainable agricultural practices were apparent. Consistent relationships among regulating services were identified across scenarios (e.g., trade-offs of freshwater supply vs. flood and climate regulation, and synergies among water quality, soil retention, and climate regulation), suggesting opportunities and challenges to sustaining these services. In particular, proactive

Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parson, E A

2008-01-01

Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

Evaluation of alternative partitioning/transmutation scenarios using transmutation in light-water reactors (LWRs)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, E.D.; Renier, J.P.; Del Cul, B.; Spencer, B.

2005-01-01

Previous Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI) studies were made to assess the effects of the existing accumulation of LWR spent fuel in the United States on the capability to partition/transmute actinides using existing and advanced LWR. The concept of treating the oldest fuel first indicated that significant advantages could be gained in both partitioning, transmutation, and in overall cost reduction. The processing scenarios previously evaluated assumed that (1) 2000 MT/year of spent fuel, irradiated to 45 GWd/MT and decayed for 30 years is processed; (2) recovered plutonium and 90% of the neptunium are transmuted in LWR MOX fuel; and (3) minor actinides, consisting of americium, curium, and 10% of the neptunium are transmuted in burnable poison type targets. Results of the previous study showed that significant benefits could be obtained, including (1) lower costs for partitioning and transmutation and for storage of spent fuel, (2) maintenance of proliferation resistance for the fissile plutonium in spent fuels, and (3) extended lifetime for the repository. The lower costs would be achieved primarily because no capital investment for a special transmuter reactor (fast reactor, accelerator-driven system, etc.) would be required. Instead, only existing and new LWRs would be utilized. Moreover, no new storage capacity could be needed for spent fuels and irradiated targets because the number of spent fuel assemblies would remain the same after the scenario is begun. Even though the total inventory of plutonium would rise during the early cycles, ∼98% of the plutonium would be contained in stored spent fuel and would be protected by high radiation (the Spent Fuel Standard). This is because the spent fuel would be reprocessed and re-irradiated at intervals within which the fission products, 137 Cs and 90 Sr, both with half-lives of ∼ 30 years, exist in significantly high concentrations.The lifetime of the repository would be extended significantly because all of

Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

2012-01-01

scenarios, we excluded hobby-type farms1 In the vaccination scenarios, herds within the vaccination zone were simulated to be vaccinated 14 days after detection of the first herd or when 10, 20, 30 or 50 herds were infected. All herds within the zones were simulated to be vaccinated. We used vaccination...... zones of either a 1, 2, 3 or 5 km. In some scenarios, hobby herds were not vaccinated. In one scenario, no sheep were vaccinated, and in another scenario no swine were vaccinated. from depopulation in zones. The resources for depopulation were estimated to 4,800 swine and 2,000 ruminants a day...

Development and application of a methodology for identifying and characterising scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Billington, D.; Bailey, L.

1998-01-01

This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed performance assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. It is intended that assessment of the base, scenario would form the core of any future performance assessment. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs which are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment timescale. Variant scenarios are defined by FEPs which represent a significant perturbation to the natural system evolution, for example the occurrence of a large seismic event. A variant scenario defined by a single initiating FEP is characterised by a sequence of events. This is represented as a 'timeline' which forms the basis for modelling that scenario. To generate a variant scenario defined by two initiating FEPs, a methodology is presented for combining the timelines for the two underlying 'single-FEP' variants. The resulting series of event sequences can be generated automatically. These sequences are then reviewed, in order to reduce the number of timelines requiring detailed consideration. This is achieved in two ways: by aggregating sequences which have similar consequence in terms of safety performance; and by combining successive intervals along a timeline where appropriate. In the context of a performance assessment, the aim is to determine the conditional risk and appropriate weight for each

Study of treatment scenarios for fuel debris removed from Fukushima Daiichi NPS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Washiya, Tadahiro; Yano, Kimihiko; Kaji, Naoya; Yamada, Seiya; Kamiya, Masayoshi

2015-01-01

On March 11, 2011, a severe nuclear accident occurred at Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (hereinafter called as F1). After the accident, the Council for the Decommissioning was established, mainly by the government and TEPCO, and a road map for the F1 decommissioning was drawn up. In the road map, the fuel debris removal from the reactors is scheduled to launch around 2020. In this study, the characteristics and technological issues of each potential treatment scenario were extracted, and the scenarios were prioritized in advance of formal evaluations in the future. The preliminary evaluation results show that long term storage and direct disposal have more positive aspects in terms of economic efficiency and radioactive waste generation. On the other hand, stabilizing processing, aqueous processing, and pyrochemical processing have been estimated to have more disadvantages in such aspects. (author)

Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

2017-08-01

Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ˜ 11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Babayev

2010-12-01

Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

2008-01-01

In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

Stochastic congestion management in power markets using efficient scenario approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esmaili, Masoud; Amjady, Nima; Shayanfar, Heidar Ali

2010-01-01

Congestion management in electricity markets is traditionally performed using deterministic values of system parameters assuming a fixed network configuration. In this paper, a stochastic programming framework is proposed for congestion management considering the power system uncertainties comprising outage of generating units and transmission branches. The Forced Outage Rate of equipment is employed in the stochastic programming. Using the Monte Carlo simulation, possible scenarios of power system operating states are generated and a probability is assigned to each scenario. The performance of the ordinary as well as Lattice rank-1 and rank-2 Monte Carlo simulations is evaluated in the proposed congestion management framework. As a tradeoff between computation time and accuracy, scenario reduction based on the standard deviation of accepted scenarios is adopted. The stochastic congestion management solution is obtained by aggregating individual solutions of accepted scenarios. Congestion management using the proposed stochastic framework provides a more realistic solution compared with traditional deterministic solutions. Results of testing the proposed stochastic congestion management on the 24-bus reliability test system indicate the efficiency of the proposed framework.

Columnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer – first results from a feasibility study Part III: Preliminary results on physicochemical model performance using two "clean air mass" reference scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Hellmuth

2006-01-01

, that observations from the surface layer alone are not conclusive to elucidate the origin of newly formed particles. This is also true with respect to the interpretation of box modelling studies. The binary and ternary NPF bursts observed in the surface layer differ with respect to burst amplitude and phase. New particles simulated in the binary scenario are formed in the forenoon in the upper part of the growing CBL, followed by turbulence-induced top-down transport. Hence, with respect to the burst observation site in the surface layer, new particles are formed ex situ. In opposite to this, the ternary case reveals a much more complex pattern. Here, NPF is initiated in the early morning hours in the surface layer, when temperature (T is low and relative humidity (RH, sulphur dioxide (SO2 and NH3 concentrations are high, hence new particles are formed in situ. Shortly after that, ex situ NPF in the free troposphere sets in, followed by entrainment and top-down diffusion of newly formed particles into the surface layer. Altogether, these processes mainly contribute to the formation of a strong burst in the morning hours in the ternary scenario. While the time-height cross-section of the binary nucleation rate resembles a "blob"-like evolution pattern, the ternary one resembles a "sucking tube"-like pattern. The time-height cross-sections of the flux pattern and double correlations could be plausibly interpreted in terms of CBL turbulence and entrainment/detrainment processes both in the binary and in the ternary case. Although the present approach is a pure conceptual one, it shows the feasibility to simulate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the CBL. Prior to a dedicated verification/validation study, further attempts are necessary to consider a more advanced description of the formation and activation of thermodynamically stable clusters according to modern concepts proposed by Kulmala et al. (2000, Kulmala (2003 and Kulmala et al. (2004a.

Spatiotemporal Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Change Scenarios in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruci Wang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Simulating future land use/cover changes is of great importance for urban planners and decision-makers, especially in metropolitan areas, to maintain a sustainable environment. This study examines the changes in land use/cover in the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA from 2007 to 2017 as a first step in using supervised classification. Second, based on the map results, we predicted the expected patterns of change in 2027 and 2037 by employing a hybrid model composed of cellular automata and the Markov model. The next step was to decide the model inputs consisting of the modeling variables affecting the distribution of land use/cover in the study area, for instance distance to central business district (CBD and distance to railways, in addition to the classified maps of 2007 and 2017. Finally, we considered three scenarios for simulating land use/cover changes: spontaneous, sub-region development, and green space improvement. Simulation results show varied patterns of change according to the different scenarios. The sub-region development scenario is the most promising because it balances between urban areas, resources, and green spaces. This study provides significant insight for planners about change trends in the TMA and future challenges that might be encountered to maintain a sustainable region.

Environment and mobility 2050: scenarios for a 75% reduction in CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez-Ruiz, H.G.

2009-10-01

In France an objective of dividing greenhouse gas emissions by four, from the 1990 level, by 2050 has been set. Are these ambitions out of our reach? What will the price to pay for this objective be? We have built a long-term back-casting transport demand model (TILT, Transport Issues in the Long Term) . This model is centered on defined behavior types - in which the speed-GDP elasticity plays a key role - in order to determine demand estimations. This model lets us understand past tendencies - the coupling between growth and personal and freight mobility and adapt behavioral hypothesis - linked to the evolution of public policies - in order to show how a 75% reduction objective can be attained. The main results are an estimation of CO 2 emissions for the transport sector taking into account technical progress and demand. These results are presented as three scenario families named: Pegasus, Chronos and Hestia. Each family corresponds to a growing degree of constraint on mobility. It is possible to divide greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector by four. Technical progress is able to lead to more than half of these reductions. The interest of these scenarios is to show that there exist different paths - through organizational change - to getting the other half of the reductions. (author)

Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations; Scenari energetici italiani a confronto

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Contaldi, Mario [Agenzia per la Protezione dell' Ambiente e per i Servizi Tecnici-APAT, Roma (Italy)

2005-09-15

This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x} resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed. [Italian] Questo articolo riporta alcuni dei piu rappresentativi ed aggiornati scenari di evoluzione dei consumi energetici primari italiani. Dopo un esame delle principali variabili macroeconomiche i risultati degli scenari sono esaminati a livello di settore, con una breve discussione delle principali variabili utilizzate. Infine sono state anche esaminate le emissioni di CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} e NO{sub x} risultanti dai diversi scenari e le possibili conseguenze sul piano normativo.

Biosphere scenario development. An interim report of an SKI, SSI, SKB working group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-11-01

The Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co have initiated a project for the development of scenarios for the behaviour of radionuclides in high level waste following deep geological disposal. The main objective is to develop a general consensus of scenarios and conceptual models. Within the project a biosphere scenarios working group was initiated to consider specific questions of the biosphere. This report describes the results of the group's deliberations up to the end of July 1989. A methodology is presented for the development of biosphere scenarios which may be considered alongside scenarios for radionuclide behaviour in the near field and geosphere. Two major biosphere elements affecting processes in the surface environment have been recognised, climate and development. Alternative states for climate and level of development are suggested and each combination can be considered with one or more of a range of biosphere receptors, such as a river or a lake. The features, events and processes relevant to each receptor are presented. Consideration is then given to biosphere assumptions for both gradual and direct releases from the geosphere, as well as biosphere effects on the repository near field or geosphere. The amount of screening which can be done at this stage to limit the number of biosphere scenarios is small. However, considerable potential exists once more details are available for geosphere release scenarios. It may be appropriate to further develop biosphere scenarios, specific to each geosphere release scenario. It may also be appropriate to consider scenarios specifically in relation to the individual radionuclides which dominate geosphere releases. Both these possibilities could result in considerably reduced requirements for calculations

Simulations of KSTAR high performance steady state operation scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Na, Yong-Su; Kessel, C.E.; Park, J.M.; Yi, Sumin; Kim, J.Y.; Becoulet, A.; Sips, A.C.C.

2009-01-01

We report the results of predictive modelling of high performance steady state operation scenarios in KSTAR. Firstly, the capabilities of steady state operation are investigated with time-dependent simulations using a free-boundary plasma equilibrium evolution code coupled with transport calculations. Secondly, the reproducibility of high performance steady state operation scenarios developed in the DIII-D tokamak, of similar size to that of KSTAR, is investigated using the experimental data taken from DIII-D. Finally, the capability of ITER-relevant steady state operation is investigated in KSTAR. It is found that KSTAR is able to establish high performance steady state operation scenarios; β N above 3, H 98 (y, 2) up to 2.0, f BS up to 0.76 and f NI equals 1.0. In this work, a realistic density profile is newly introduced for predictive simulations by employing the scaling law of a density peaking factor. The influence of the current ramp-up scenario and the transport model is discussed with respect to the fusion performance and non-inductive current drive fraction in the transport simulations. As observed in the experiments, both the heating and the plasma current waveforms in the current ramp-up phase produce a strong effect on the q-profile, the fusion performance and also on the non-inductive current drive fraction in the current flattop phase. A criterion in terms of q min is found to establish ITER-relevant steady state operation scenarios. This will provide a guideline for designing the current ramp-up phase in KSTAR. It is observed that the transport model also affects the predictive values of fusion performance as well as the non-inductive current drive fraction. The Weiland transport model predicts the highest fusion performance as well as non-inductive current drive fraction in KSTAR. In contrast, the GLF23 model exhibits the lowest ones. ITER-relevant advanced scenarios cannot be obtained with the GLF23 model in the conditions given in this work

Spatial Dynamic Modelling of Future Scenarios of Land Use Change in Vaud and Valais, Western Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Gago-Silva

2017-04-01

Full Text Available We use Bayesian methods with a weights of evidence approach to model the probability of land use change over the Western part of Switzerland. This first model is followed by a cellular automata model for spatial allocation of land use classes. Our results extend and enhance current land use scenarios studies by applying Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EG to a study area comprising of the upper Rhone river basin in the Cantons of Vaud and Valais. In order to take into account the topography, we divide the study area into four regions, based on their altitude and administrative region. We show that the different regions are affected in differing ways by the same driving forces. We analyse possible outcomes in land use change in 2050 for three different scenarios: “business as usual”, “liberalisation” and a “lowered agriculture production”. The “business-as-usual” scenario results indicate a decrease in agriculture, mostly in extensive agriculture, with a share in the total area of 12.3% in 2009 decreasing by 3.3% in 2050. Losses expected under a “business-as-usual” scenario in agriculture, are mostly due to the conversion to shrubland and forest. Further losses in extensive agriculture are expected under the “liberalisation” scenario, decreasing by 10.3 % in 2050. Along with a marked increase in the closed and open forest area, increasing from 27.1% in 2009 to 42.3% by 2050. Gains in open land habitat with the increase of the share of extensive agriculture area under the “lowered agricultural production” scenario are expected to increase by 3.2% in 2050, while the share of intensive agriculture area is expected to decrease by 5.6%.

Robustness Analysis of Real Network Topologies Under Multiple Failure Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manzano, M.; Marzo, J. L.; Calle, E.

2012-01-01

on topological characteristics. Recently approaches also consider the services supported by such networks. In this paper we carry out a robustness analysis of five real backbone telecommunication networks under defined multiple failure scenarios, taking into account the consequences of the loss of established......Nowadays the ubiquity of telecommunication networks, which underpin and fulfill key aspects of modern day living, is taken for granted. Significant large-scale failures have occurred in the last years affecting telecommunication networks. Traditionally, network robustness analysis has been focused...... connections. Results show which networks are more robust in response to a specific type of failure....

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolas Casajus

Full Text Available An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthias Albert

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Background Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we (1 characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios, (2 analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and (3 quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress. Methods In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs (minimum, median, maximum based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development. Results The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker’s risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive. Conclusions Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario, but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate

Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark: IDA 2050, CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis), and Climate Commission 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

2012-01-01

Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy sectors. The methodologies used in two academic scenarios, IDA 2050 and CEESA, are compared. The main differences in the methodologies of IDA 2050 and CEESA are found in the estimation of future biomass potential, transport demand assessment, and a trial to examine future power grid in an electrical engineering perspective. The above-mentioned methodologies are compared in an evolutionary perspective to determine if the methodologies reflect the complex reality well. The results of the scenarios are also assessed within the framework of “radical technological change” in order to show which future scenario assumes more radical change within five dimensions of technology; technique, knowledge, organization, product, and profit. -- Highlights: ► Three future scenarios for Danish future in 2050 are compared. ► All of these scenarios suggest the same solutions for the future with minor differences. ► There are differences in methodologies for IDA 2050 and CEESA such as biomass, transport, and power grid. ► The contents of scenarios are assessed which scenario assume more radical technological change in the future.

Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

2016-01-01

all Bolivian lowlands reaching 37,944,434 ha and leaves small forest patches in a few PAs. These deforestation scenarios are not meant to predict the future but to show how current and future decisions carried out by the neo-extractivist practices of MAS government could affect deforestation and carbon emission trends. In this perspective, recognizing land use systems as open and dynamic systems is a central challenge in designing efficient land use policies and managing a transition towards sustainable land use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Driving-forces model on individual behavior in scenarios considering moving threat agents

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shuying; Zhuang, Jun; Shen, Shifei; Wang, Jia

2017-09-01

The individual behavior model is a contributory factor to improve the accuracy of agent-based simulation in different scenarios. However, few studies have considered moving threat agents, which often occur in terrorist attacks caused by attackers with close-range weapons (e.g., sword, stick). At the same time, many existing behavior models lack validation from cases or experiments. This paper builds a new individual behavior model based on seven behavioral hypotheses. The driving-forces model is an extension of the classical social force model considering scenarios including moving threat agents. An experiment was conducted to validate the key components of the model. Then the model is compared with an advanced Elliptical Specification II social force model, by calculating the fitting errors between the simulated and experimental trajectories, and being applied to simulate a specific circumstance. Our results show that the driving-forces model reduced the fitting error by an average of 33.9% and the standard deviation by an average of 44.5%, which indicates the accuracy and stability of the model in the studied situation. The new driving-forces model could be used to simulate individual behavior when analyzing the risk of specific scenarios using agent-based simulation methods, such as risk analysis of close-range terrorist attacks in public places.

Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

1978-03-01

This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

Improved operating scenarios of the DIII-D tokamak as a result of the addition of UNIX computer systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henline, P.A.

1995-10-01

The increased use of UNIX based computer systems for machine control, data handling and analysis has greatly enhanced the operating scenarios and operating efficiency of the DRI-D tokamak. This paper will describe some of these UNIX systems and their specific uses. These include the plasma control system, the electron cyclotron heating control system, the analysis of electron temperature and density measurements and the general data acquisition system (which is collecting over 130 Mbytes of data). The speed and total capability of these systems has dramatically affected the ability to operate DIII-D. The improved operating scenarios include better plasma shape control due to the more thorough MHD calculations done between shots and the new ability to see the time dependence of profile data as it relates across different spatial locations in the tokamak. Other analysis which engenders improved operating abilities will be described

Design storytelling with future scenario development; envisioning "the museum"

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eggink, Wouter; Albert de la Bruheze, Adri A.

2015-01-01

There are different ways to tell stories with design. This paper shows possibilities of telling stories by envisioning the future. Overall, design has the very ability to envision, visualize and express things that do not exist yet. We introduce the Future Scenario Development Design methodology as

A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

2006-12-01

A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

MIV Project: Mission scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

1997-01-01

Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

2005-09-30

Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

Scenarios of forestry carbon sequestration measures in the Russian Federation and priorities for action plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kokorin, A.O. [Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow (Russian Federation)

1996-12-31

Development of forestry mitigation strategy under Russian transition economy conditions has many difficulties and specific features. The most important factors are: shortage in funds; absence of well defined legislation, rules and standards; absence of adequate control systems; weak transport infrastructure and export problems. Assessment of economic possibilities, potential, short- and middle-term measures show that strategies have to be focused on improvement and promotion of current carbon sequestration activity. Five baseline forestry scenario (No. 1) and four other scenarios (No. 2 - No. 5) for 2000-2040 were developed. Each scenario covers all forested area but provides separate analysis of 30 `forestry ecoregions`. Three types of forestry management were included in scenarios: clear-cut logging and reforestation (by scenarios No. 2 and No. 3); selective logging and thinning (No. 4); measures to prevent and manage fires (No. 5). The baseline scenario results in a constant net-sink of about 150 MtC/yr. An increase in clear-cut logging on the basis of current forestry practice will cause a rapid drop of net-sink. Implementation of a modest increase in clear-cut logging with active forest fire and selective logging measures could provide with a slight increase of net-sink. Consideration of scenarios helps identify regional forestry priorities for Russian Climate Change Action Plan. The priorities by region include: European-Ural: (1) creation of economy mechanism to increase forestry effectiveness on the same cutting areas, (2) assistance to natural reforestation. Central and North-East Siberia: promotion of forest fire protection system. South Siberia and Primorie and Priamurie: limit of clear-cut logging and creation market situation for better forestry efficiency. The proposed Joint Implementation Vologda reforestation project which is being considered now by special bodies of the USA and the Russian Federation is in good agreement with these priorities.

Energy use and overheating risk of Swedish multi-storey residential buildings under different climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dodoo, Ambrose; Gustavsson, Leif

2016-01-01

In this study, the extent to which different climate scenarios influence overheating risk, energy use and peak loads for space conditioning of district heated multi-storey buildings in Sweden are explored. Furthermore, the effectiveness of different overheating control measures and the implications of different electricity supply options for space cooling and ventilation are investigated. The analysis is based on buildings with different architectural and energy efficiency configurations including a prefab concrete-frame, a massive timber-frame and a light timber-frame building. Thermal performance of the buildings under low and high Representative Concentration Pathway climate scenarios for 2050–2059 and 2090–2099 are analysed and compared to that under historical climate of 1961–1990 and recent climate of 1996–2005. The study is based on a bottom-up methodology and includes detailed hour-by-hour energy balance and systems analyses. The results show significant changes in the buildings’ thermal performance under the future climate scenarios, relative to the historical and recent climates. Heating demand decreased significantly while cooling demand and overheating risk increased considerably with the future climate scenarios, for all buildings. In contrast to the cooling demand, the relative changes in heating demand of the buildings under the future climate scenarios are somewhat similar. The changes in the space conditioning demands and overheating risk vary for the buildings. Overheating risk was found to be slightly higher for the massive-frame building and slightly lower for the light-frame building. - Highlights: • We analysed thermal performance of buildings under different climate scenarios. • Our analysis is based on historical, recent and projected future climate datasets. • The buildings' thermal performance changed notably under future climate scenarios. • The extent of the changes is influenced by the buildings' energy efficiency

Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

2003-01-01

The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

Communication products for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario: Chapter K in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Suzanne C.

2013-01-01

Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR), like its predecessor the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, has a mission to increase the use of science by decision-makers of all kinds. Thus, an important part of any SAFRR scenario is development of products that enhance usability of the science. In this tsunami scenario, the focus has been on development of three kinds of products: products that augment typical outputs of scientific studies, such as reports, to make the results of the scenario more relevant and usable to nonscientists; products that distill local impacts and allow users in specific locales to identify which aspects of the broad regional study apply to their local area; and

Role of innovative technologies under the global zero emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tokimatsu, Koji; Konishi, Satoshi; Ishihara, Keiichi; Tezuka, Tetsuo; Yasuoka, Rieko; Nishio, Masahiro

2016-01-01

Highlights: • We modeled a zero emissions scenario based on the A1T scenario of IPCC-SRES. • We conducted global modeling by minimizing costs of energy, biomass, and materials. • A variety of advanced technology innovations were considered and incorporated. • Results suggest that zero emissions scenario may be possible in this century. • We revealed energy supply structure under the zero emissions scenarios. - Abstract: This study investigated zero emissions scenarios with following two originalities compared to various existing studies. One is that we based on A1T society of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenario) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) compared to existing studies on those of B1 or B2. The second one is that various innovative technologies were considered and incorporated, such as biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and advanced nuclear technologies including hydrogen or synfuel production. We conducted global modeling over the period 2010–2150 in which energy, materials, and biomass and foods supply costs were minimized by linear programming. We found following features of energy supply structure in A1T scenario. Since the electric demand in A1T scenario in 2100 is two times larger than the others, (1) renewable energy which solely produce electricity, nuclear, and fossil energy with CCS (FECCS) especially coal are main sources of electricity, (2) renewable which can supply heat, namely BECCS and geothermal, satisfies the sector, and (3) hydrogen from coal is introduced in transport sector. It can be concluded that the zero emission energy systems with global economic growth will be possible, by development and deployment of ambitious advanced energy technologies.

Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

Online scenario labeling using a hidden Markov model for assessment of nuclear plant state

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zamalieva, Daniya; Yilmaz, Alper; Aldemir, Tunc

2013-01-01

By taking into account both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties within the same probabilistic framework, dynamic event trees (DETs) provide more comprehensive and systematic coverage of possible scenarios following an initiating event compared to conventional event trees. When DET generation algorithms are applied to complex realistic systems, extremely large amounts of data can be produced due to both the large number of scenarios generated following a single initiating event and the large number of data channels that represent these scenarios. In addition, the computational time required for the simulation of each scenario can be very large (e.g. about 24 h of serial run simulation time for a 4 h station blackout scenario). Since scenarios leading to system failure are more of interest, a method is proposed for online labeling of scenarios as failure or non-failure. The algorithm first trains a Hidden Markov Model, which represents the behavior of non-failure scenarios, using a training set from previous simulations. Then, the maximum likelihoods of sample failure and non-failure scenarios fitting this model are computed. These values are used to determine the timestamp at which the labeling of a certain scenario should be performed. Finally, during the succeeding timestamps, the likelihood of each scenario fitting the learned model is computed, and a dynamic thresholding based on the previously calculated likelihood values is applied. The scenarios whose likelihood is higher than the threshold are labeled as non-failure. The proposed algorithm can further delay the non-failure scenarios or discontinue them in order to redirect the computational resources toward the failure scenarios, and reduce computational time and complexity. Experiments using RELAP5/3D model of a fast reactor utilizing an Reactor Vessel Auxiliary Cooling System (RVACS) passive decay heat removal system and dynamic analysis of a station blackout (SBO) event show that the proposed method is

Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Energy scenarios for PAREST. Sub-report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joerss, Wolfram; Degel, Melanie

2013-01-01

In the research project PAREST emission scenarios to 2020 for particulate matter (PM 10 und PM 2,5 ), and aerosol precursors SO 2 , NO x , NH 3 and NMVOC were prepared for Germany and Europe, mitigation measures evaluated and the results used to model the PM pollution load for Germany. In this part of the report to PAREST energy scenarios used for PAREST are presented. [de

Performance Evaluation of LoRa Considering Scenario Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanchez-Iborra, Ramon; Sanchez-Gomez, Jesus; Ballesta-Viñas, Juan; Cano, Maria-Dolores; Skarmeta, Antonio F

2018-03-03

New verticals within the Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm such as smart cities, smart farming, or goods monitoring, among many others, are demanding strong requirements to the Radio Access Network (RAN) in terms of coverage, end-node's power consumption, and scalability. The technologies employed so far to provide IoT scenarios with connectivity, e.g., wireless sensor network and cellular technologies, are not able to simultaneously cope with these three requirements. Thus, a novel solution known as Low Power - Wide Area Network (LP-WAN) has emerged as a promising alternative to provide with low-cost and low-power-consumption connectivity to end-nodes spread in a wide area. Concretely, the Long-Range Wide Area Network (LoRaWAN) technology is one of the LP-WAN platforms that is receiving greater attention from both the industry and the academia. For that reason, in this work, a comprehensive performance evaluation of LoRaWAN under different environmental conditions is presented. The results are obtained from three real scenarios, namely, urban, suburban, and rural, considering both dynamic and static conditions, hence a discussion about the most proper LoRaWAN physical-layer configuration for each scenario is provided. Besides, a theoretical coverage study is also conducted by the use of a radio planning tool considering topographic maps and a precise propagation model. From the attained results, it can be concluded that it is necessary to evaluate the propagation conditions of the deployment scenario prior to the system implantation in order to reach a compromise between the robustness of the network and the transmission data-rate.

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Retèl Valesca P

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process