WorldWideScience

Sample records for scenarios modelisation climatique

  1. Modelisation de l'erosion et des sources de pollution dans le bassin versant Iroquois/Blanchette dans un contexte de changements climatiques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulibaly, Issa

    Principale source d'approvisionnement en eau potable de la municipalite d'Edmundston, le bassin versant Iroquois/Blanchette est un enjeu capital pour cette derniere, d'ou les efforts constants deployes pour assurer la preservation de la qualite de son eau. A cet effet, plusieurs etudes y ont ete menees. Les plus recentes ont identifie des menaces de pollution de diverses origines dont celles associees aux changements climatiques (e.g. Maaref 2012). Au regard des impacts des modifications climatiques annonces a l'echelle du Nouveau-Brunswick, le bassin versant Iroquois/Blanchette pourrait etre fortement affecte, et cela de diverses facons. Plusieurs scenarios d'impacts sont envisageables, notamment les risques d'inondation, d'erosion et de pollution a travers une augmentation des precipitations et du ruissellement. Face a toutes ces menaces eventuelles, l'objectif de cette etude est d'evaluer les impacts potentiels des changements climatiques sur les risques d'erosion et de pollution a l'echelle du bassin versant Iroquois/Blanchette. Pour ce faire, la version canadienne de l'equation universelle revisee des pertes en sol RUSLE-CAN et le modele hydrologique SWAT ( Soil and Water Assessment Tool) ont ete utilises pour modeliser les risques d'erosion et de pollution au niveau dans la zone d'etude. Les donnees utilisees pour realiser ce travail proviennent de sources diverses et variees (teledetections, pedologiques, topographiques, meteorologiques, etc.). Les simulations ont ete realisees en deux etapes distinctes, d'abord dans les conditions actuelles ou l'annee 2013 a ete choisie comme annee de reference, ensuite en 2025 et 2050. Les resultats obtenus montrent une tendance a la hausse de la production de sediments dans les prochaines annees. La production maximale annuelle augmente de 8,34 % et 8,08 % respectivement en 2025 et 2050 selon notre scenario le plus optimiste, et de 29,99 % en 2025 et 29,72 % en 2050 selon le scenario le plus pessimiste par rapport a celle

  2. Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios; Modelisation climatique du Bassin mediterraneen: variabilite et scenarios de changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Somot, S

    2005-12-15

    Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

  3. The climatic scenario of global warming; Les scenarios climatiques de rechauffement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M

    2007-07-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  4. Long term modelling in a second rank world: application to climate policies; Modeliser le long terme dans un monde de second rang: application aux politiques climatiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crassous, R

    2008-11-15

    This research aims at the identification of the dissatisfaction reasons with respect to the existing climate models, at the design of an innovating modelling architecture which would respond to these dissatisfactions, and at proposing climate policy assessment pathways. The authors gives a critique assessment of the modelling activity within the field of climate policies, outlines the fact that the large number and the scattering of existing long term scenarios hides a weak control of uncertainties and of the inner consistency of the produced paths, as well as the very low number of modelling paradigms. After a deepened analysis of modelling practices, the author presents the IMACLIM-R modelling architecture which is presented on a world scale and includes 12 areas and 12 sectors, and allows the simulation of evolutions by 2050, and even 2100, with a one-year time step. The author describes a scenario without any climate policy, highlights reassessment possibilities for economical trajectories which would allow greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation on a long term basis through the application of IMACLIM-R innovations. He outlines adjustment and refinement possibilities for climate policies which would robustly limit the transition cost risks.

  5. Temperature and extreme rainfalls on France in a climatic change scenario; Temperature et precipitations extremes sur la france dans un scenario de changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M

    2007-07-01

    Impact of an anthropogenic climate change scenario on the frequency distribution of temperature and precipitation over France is studied with a numerical simulation calibrated with observed daily data from the synoptic network. (author)

  6. La gestion des risques climatiques en Afrique du Sud | CRDI ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Exploration des scenarios d'adaptation : leishmaniose cutanée et changements climatiques en Algérie. En Algérie, les changements climatiques sont associés aux modifications de l'utilisation des sols et de leurs interactions avec l'eau. Voir davantageExploration des scenarios d'adaptation : leishmaniose cutanée et ...

  7. Characterisation, modelling and control of advanced scenarios in the european tokamak jet; Caracterisation, modelisation et controle des scenarios avances dans le tokamak europeen jet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tresset, G

    2002-09-26

    The advanced scenarios, developed for less than ten years with the internal transport barriers and the control of current profile, give rise to a 'new deal' for the tokamak as a future thermonuclear controlled fusion reactor. The Joint European Torus (JET) in United Kingdom is presently the most powerful device in terms of fusion power and it has allowed to acquire a great experience in these improved confinement regimes. The reduction of turbulent transport, considered now as closely linked to the shape of current profile optimised for instance by lower hybrid current drive or the self-generated bootstrap current, can be characterised by a dimensionless criterion. Most of useful information related to the transport barriers are thus available. Large database analysis and real time plasma control are envisaged as attractive applications. The so-called 'S'-shaped transport models exhibit some interesting properties in fair agreement with the experiments, while the non-linear multivariate dependencies of thermal diffusivity can be approximated by a neural network, suggesting a new approach for transport investigation and modelling. Finally, the first experimental demonstrations of real time control of internal transport barriers and current profile have been performed on JET. Sophisticated feedback algorithms have been proposed and are being numerically tested to achieve steady-state and efficient plasmas. (author)

  8. Modelling the impact of the climatic changes on the dune erosion. The case of the Camargue; Modelisation de l'impact du changement climatique sur l'erosion des dunes. Application a la Camargue

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sabatier, F. [Aix-Marseille-3 Univ., Centre Europeen de Recherche et d' Enseignement de Geosciences de l' Environnement, UME CNRS 6635, 13 - Marseille (France)

    2008-07-01

    Three climatic changes scenarios were investigated by an increase of energy and by the duration of an extreme storm. The wave characteristics properties and the sea level time series of the referenced storm were increased of about 5, 10 and 20 % in order to define the dune erosion. We evidenced that the wave height displays more influence on the dune erosion than the sea level. Moreover, the storm duration, over 4 days, does not play an important role on the dune erosion. However, there is no proportional relationships between a weak storm energy increase and/or duration, and dune erosion. A small increase of storm will have a large impact on dune erosion in the future. (author)

  9. Modeling of the climate system and of its response to a greenhouse effect increase; Modelisation du systeme climatique et de sa reponse a une augmentation de l'effet de serre

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, L. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, CNRS, Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique, 75 - Paris (France)

    2005-07-01

    The anthropic disturbance of the Earth's greenhouse effect is already visible and will enhance in the coming years or decades. In front of the rapidity and importance of the global warming effect, the socio-economical management of this change will rise problems and must be studied by the scientific community. At the modeling level, finding a direct strategy for the validation of climate models is not easy: many uncertainties exist because energy transformations take place at a low level and several processes take place at the same time. The variability observed at the seasonal, inter-annual or paleo- scales allows to validate the models at the process level but not the evolution of the whole system. The management of these uncertainties is an integral part of the global warming problem. Thus, several scenarios can be proposed and their risk of occurrence must be estimated. This paper presents first the greenhouse effect, the climatic changes during geologic times, the anthropic disturbance of the greenhouse effect, the modeling of climate and the forecasting of its evolution. (J.S.)

  10. Services climatiques pour l'adaptation au changement climatique

    OpenAIRE

    Romain, Cavelier; Corine, Borel; Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Daniel, Ritti; Morin, Dominique; Marc, Chaussade; Véronique, Charreyron

    2016-01-01

    National audience; Le changement climatique constitue une problématique majeure perceptible dès aujourd'hui ; la société et l'ensemble de ses acteurs peuvent percevoir la nécessité de l'adaptation à cette nouvelle situation.

  11. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  12. Developpement D'un Modele Climatique Regional: Fizr Simulation des Conditions de Janvier de la Cote Ouest Nord Americaine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goyette, Stephane

    1995-11-01

    Le sujet de cette these concerne la modelisation numerique du climat regional. L'objectif principal de l'exercice est de developper un modele climatique regional ayant les capacites de simuler des phenomenes de meso-echelle spatiale. Notre domaine d'etude se situe sur la Cote Ouest nord americaine. Ce dernier a retenu notre attention a cause de la complexite du relief et de son controle sur le climat. Les raisons qui motivent cette etude sont multiples: d'une part, nous ne pouvons pas augmenter, en pratique, la faible resolution spatiale des modeles de la circulation generale de l'atmosphere (MCG) sans augmenter a outrance les couts d'integration et, d'autre part, la gestion de l'environnement exige de plus en plus de donnees climatiques regionales determinees avec une meilleure resolution spatiale. Jusqu'alors, les MCG constituaient les modeles les plus estimes pour leurs aptitudes a simuler le climat ainsi que les changements climatiques mondiaux. Toutefois, les phenomenes climatiques de fine echelle echappent encore aux MCG a cause de leur faible resolution spatiale. De plus, les repercussions socio-economiques des modifications possibles des climats sont etroitement liees a des phenomenes imperceptibles par les MCG actuels. Afin de circonvenir certains problemes inherents a la resolution, une approche pratique vise a prendre un domaine spatial limite d'un MCG et a y imbriquer un autre modele numerique possedant, lui, un maillage de haute resolution spatiale. Ce processus d'imbrication implique alors une nouvelle simulation numerique. Cette "retro-simulation" est guidee dans le domaine restreint a partir de pieces d'informations fournies par le MCG et forcee par des mecanismes pris en charge uniquement par le modele imbrique. Ainsi, afin de raffiner la precision spatiale des previsions climatiques de grande echelle, nous developpons ici un modele numerique appele FIZR, permettant d'obtenir de l'information climatique regionale valide a la fine echelle spatiale

  13. Ressources hydriques et adaptation aux changements climatiques ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    La modélisation intégrée des changements climatiques et les liens entre la recherche et les politiques pour une planification adaptative. Les changements climatiques influencent la fréquence et l'intensité des phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes, exposant à la fois les populations et les économies à des pertes de vie, ...

  14. Adaptation aux changements climatiques en Afrique | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    On s'attend à ce que les pays en développement soient les plus durement touchés par les changements climatiques. De la diminution de la production agricole dans des régions où les gens sont déjà sous-alimentés à l'aggravation des contraintes hydriques, en passant par la multiplication des désastres climatiques ...

  15. Changements climatiques, innovation et technologies de l ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Les technologies de l'information et de la communication (TIC) pourraient aider les collectivités à s'adapter aux effets des changements climatiques en ... Women in the developing world continue to face obstacles that limit their ability to establish careers and become leaders in the fields of science, technology, engineering, ...

  16. Interactions variations climatiques – insectes ravageurs et ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Interactions variations climatiques – insectes ravageurs et perception des producteurs de cereales au sud Togo. ... In general, stem borer Sesamia calamistis was the most important species found in all surveyed areas with an abundance of 76.02% followed by Busseola fusca (21.7%) and Eldana saccharina (2.3%).

  17. Adaptation aux changements climatiques dans les zones ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    La croissance rapide des zones périurbaines de l'Asie du Sud-Est est caractérisée par un manque de services de base, des milieux bâtis non planifiés et la relative faiblesse des gouvernements. Les habitants de ces zones sont particulièrement vulnérables face aux phénomènes climatiques extrêmes tels que les ouragans ...

  18. Facteurs climatiques et environnementaux des risques palustres ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    La santé des populations est tributaire des conditions climatiques et environnementales dans lesquelles elles vivent. La présente étude analyse les liens entre le climat, l'environnement et la prévalence du paludisme dans le Département des Collines. L'analyse des données pluviométriques, thermométriques et ...

  19. Perception des perturbations climatiques, savoirs locaux et ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Les effets profonds du changement climatique sur l'agriculture, couplés avec la faible résilience et la grande vulnérabilité des populations aux chocs, pourraient réduire considérablement leur capacité de gestion des ressources naturelles et altérer ainsi leurs moyens d'existence, leur sécurité alimentaire et leur bien-être.

  20. Perceptions paysannes et impacts des changements climatiques sur ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Perceptions paysannes et impacts des changements climatiques sur la production et la diversité variétale de l'igname dans la zone aride du nord-ouest du Bénin. ... cultivars tolérants, sécheresse, stratégies d'adaptation, variabilité climatique.

  1. Changements climatiques | Page 3 | CRDI - Centre de recherches ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Langue French. Read more about Vulnérabilité et adaptation aux changements climatiques des systèmes agraires à Madagascar. Langue French. Read more about Gouvernance de l'eau, désertification et changements climatiques en Araucanie, au Chili. Langue French. Read more about Inondations dans la banlieue de ...

  2. Changements climatiques | Page 5 | CRDI - Centre de recherches ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    adaptation des populations vulnérables à la salinization des sols induite par les changements climatiques au Sénégal. Langue French. Read more about Changements climatiques et santé humaine à Accra, Ghana. Langue French. Read more ...

  3. Changements climatiques | Page 6 | CRDI - Centre de recherches ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Langue French. Read more about Avancement de capacité d'adaptation aux changements climatiques : cinq projets pilotes. Langue French. Read more about Amélioration de l'adaptation aux changements climatiques des pasteurs du nord du Kenya. Langue French. Read more about Intégration du savoir autochtone à la ...

  4. Exploration des scenarios d'adaptation : leishmaniose cutanée et ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Exploration des scenarios d'adaptation : leishmaniose cutanée et changements climatiques en Algérie. En Algérie, les changements climatiques sont associés aux modifications de l'utilisation des sols et de leurs interactions avec l'eau. Par conséquent, ces vingt dernières années ont vue les maladies vectorielles prennent ...

  5. Final report of the project CARBOFOR. Carbon sequestration in the big forest ecosystems in France. Quantification, spatialization, vulnerability and impacts of different climatic and forestry scenario; Rapport final du projet CARBOFOR. Sequestration de carbone dans les grands ecosystemes forestiers en France. Quantification, spatialisation, vulnerabilite et impacts de differents scenarios climatiques et sylvicoles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loustau, D

    2004-06-15

    The main outcomes of the project allowed to revise the carbon stock estimate of the national french forests, to clarify the interactions between climate and sylviculture according to the ecological profile of main species, to describe the changes in species area distribution for forest trees and pathogens. Different approaches for estimating the national carbon stock in forest biomass were investigated such as biomass equations and architectural models. Some conclusions in terms of adaptation scenario can be drawn. The global production potential of the french forest will be changed. This change is rapid and will occur a time interval shorter than average tree life duration. Species substitution and changing practices must be considered from now. The soil water holding capacity and the nutrient availability interact strongly with the climate effects and are therefore target factors for adapting forest stands to future changes. The dramatic change in the potential area distribution of most pathogens over France lead to recommend strong regulations for avoiding dissemination of fungal diseases and to anticipate the pathogen risks through species distribution. (A.L.B.)

  6. Conférence principale : Le changement climatique mondial, ses ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Conférence principale : Le changement climatique mondial, ses défis et ses opportunités. 10 mai 2011 ... Par conséquent, le réchauffement futur est sans équivoque et déjà engagé », a affirmé le Dr Nobre. Le niveau actuel des carburants ... Le changement climatique menace particulièrement l'Amazonie, a dit le Dr Nobre.

  7. Irrigation et information climatique au Burkina Faso (CARA) | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Les chercheurs évalueront la vulnérabilité des agriculteurs aux changements climatiques de même que les stratégies d'adaptation actuellement en oeuvre. À la lumière de ces évaluations, ils élaboreront des techniques agricoles adaptées au contexte local et visant à réduire les impacts des changements climatiques, ...

  8. Adaptation aux changements climatiques en Afrique | Page 4 | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    On s'attend à ce que les pays en développement soient les plus durement touchés par les changements climatiques. De la diminution de la production agricole dans des régions où les gens sont déjà sous-alimentés à l'aggravation des contraintes hydriques, en passant par la multiplication des désastres climatiques ...

  9. Adaptation aux changements climatiques en Afrique | CRDI - Centre ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    On s'attend à ce que les pays en développement soient les plus durement touchés par les changements climatiques. De la diminution de la production agricole dans des régions où les gens sont déjà sous-alimentés à l'aggravation des contraintes hydriques, en passant par la multiplication des désastres climatiques ...

  10. Adaptation aux changements climatiques en Afrique | Page 3 | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    On s'attend à ce que les pays en développement soient les plus durement touchés par les changements climatiques. De la diminution de la production agricole dans des régions où les gens sont déjà sous-alimentés à l'aggravation des contraintes hydriques, en passant par la multiplication des désastres climatiques ...

  11. Adaptation aux changements climatiques en Afrique | Page 5 | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    On s'attend à ce que les pays en développement soient les plus durement touchés par les changements climatiques. De la diminution de la production agricole dans des régions où les gens sont déjà sous-alimentés à l'aggravation des contraintes hydriques, en passant par la multiplication des désastres climatiques ...

  12. Variations et cycles climatiques à la Martinique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent Huyghues-Belrose

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available IntroductionDepuis quelques années, les médias rapportent systématiquement les catastrophes naturelles survenues dans le monde, donnant l’impression qu’elles sont plus fréquentes et plus graves que dans le passé. La psychose d’un dérèglement climatique général de la planète s’est accentuée notamment avec les tempêtes survenues en Europe depuis 1999. Cette inquiétude n’est pas nouvelle à la Martinique, puisque cela fait plus d’un siècle qu’on s’interroge sur un éventuel dessèchement de l’île.E...

  13. simulating rice yields under climate change scenarios using

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

    climatic parameters (temperature, CO2 concentration, solar radiation and rainfall) and had various effects on rice. Simulated rice yields ... évalué pour la simulation des rendements du riz sous différents scenarios de changement climatique au Ghana en utilisant des données .... The project's average yield was 3.87 t ha-1.

  14. Etude du processus de changement vecu par des familles ayant decide d'adopter volontairement des comportements d'attenuation des changements climatiques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leger, Michel T.

    Les activites humaines energivores telles l'utilisation intensive de l'automobile, la surconsommation de biens et l'usage excessif d'electricite contribuent aux changements climatiques et autres problemes environnementaux. Bien que plusieurs recherches rapportent que l'etre humain est de plus en plus conscient de ses impacts sur le climat de la planete, ces memes recherches indiquent qu'en general, les gens continuent a se comporter de facon non ecologique. Que ce soit a l'ecole ou dans la communaute, plusieurs chercheurs en education relative a l'environnement estiment qu'une personne bien intentionnee est capable d'adopter des comportements plus respectueux de l'environnement. Le but de cette these etait de comprendre le processus d'integration de comportements d'attenuation des changements climatiques dans des familles. A cette fin, nous nous sommes fixe deux objectifs : 1) decrire les competences et les procedes qui favorisent l'adoption de comportements d'attenuation des changements climatiques dans des familles et 2) decrire les facteurs et les dynamiques familiales qui facilitent et limitent l'adoption de comportements d'attenuation des changements climatiques dans des familles. Des familles ont ete invitees a essayer des comportements personnels et collectifs d'attenuation des changements climatiques de sorte a integrer des modes de vie plus ecologiques. Sur une periode de huit mois, nous avons suivi leur experience de changement afin de mieux comprendre comment se produit le processus de changement dans des familles qui decident volontairement d'adopter des comportements d'attenuation des changements climatiques. Apres leur avoir fourni quelques connaissances de base sur les changements climatiques, nous avons observe le vecu de changement des familles durant huit mois d'essais a l'aide de journaux reflexifs, d'entretiens d'explicitation et du journal du chercheur. La these comporte trois articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, nous presentons une

  15. Changement climatique et familles politiques en Europe. Entre soutien et résistance aux politiques climatiques

    OpenAIRE

    Moelher, Karin; Piet, Grégory; Zaccai, Edwin

    2015-01-01

    Le changement climatique constitue une thématique politique relativement récente dans les agendas politiques et électoraux. Souvent, dans le grand public, la question climatique est perçue à travers la médiatisation des grands sommets des Nations Unies consacrés à cette problématique (Rio de Janeiro en 1992, Kyoto en 1997, Copenhague en 2009, Paris en 2015, etc.). Mais les positions que défendent les différents pays lors de ces réunions ont bien entendu été préalablement construites, entre au...

  16. Impact des changements climatiques sur l’agriculture dans la plaine de Jeffara sud-est tunisien

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Houcine Jeder

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Cette étude évalue la vulnérabilité de l’agriculture dans la plaine de Jeffera sud-est tunisien aux changements climatiques en utilisant la méthode Ricardienne. Cette méthode consiste à exprimer les revenus nets agricoles en fonction des variables climatiques, édaphiques et socio-économiques. Ces modèles ricardiens ont été testés sur la base des données d’une enquête réalisée dans le cadre de projet de développement dans la plaine Jeffera pour la compagne agricole 2002-2003.  Ces modèles ont permis d’exprimer d’une part la relation qui existe entre le revenu agricole et les variables climatiques (température et précipitation et d’autre part, d’analyser la sensibilité des revenus agricoles par rapport à ces variables climatiques. Des simulations ont été faites sur la base de scenario A2 résultat de la projection faite par le modèle HadCM3 à l’échelle nationale et régionale de la Tunisie.Les résultats de l’étude ont montré que la relation entre le revenu agricole et le climat est non linéaire. De même, les effets négatifs de certaines options d’adaptation ont montré que  l’agriculture dans la plaine de Jeffera est une agriculture paysanne basée sur le travail familial qui nécessite aujourd’hui un capital financier important et une marge de modernisation afin d’améliorer l’activité agricole dans les années futures. Tandis que les effets positifs de certaines autres options peuvent être servir comme des points de réflexion dans l’élaboration des stratégies d’adaptation aux changements climatiques comme l’utilisation des nouvelles technologies d’irrigation et l’intégration de l’activité de l’élevage dans l’exploitation agricole.

  17. L'adaptation aux changements climatiques | CRDI - Centre de ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    LA QUÊTE DE CONNAISSANCES ET LE RENFORCEMENT DES CAPACITÉS Le CRDI appuyait la recherche sur l'adaptation des humains à la variabilité et aux changements climatiques bien avant que l'expression « réchauffement de la planète » ne vienne dominer les manchettes à l'échelle mondiale.

  18. En eaux troubles : accentuation des pressions climatiques et ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Inde. S'il se peut bien que les changements climatiques viennent aggraver le problème, il ressort de recherches menées dans deux bassins versants du sud du pays que la pollution industrielle, l'exploitation non réglementée des ressources et ...

  19. Programme de bourses de recherche sur le changement climatique ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Au cours de la phase I (projet no 104391) du Programme de bourses de recherche sur le changement climatique en Afrique (ACCFP), 16 bourses dans le domaine des politiques, 13 dans celui de la recherche doctorale, 13 dans celui de la recherche postdoctorale et 3 dans celui de l'enseignement ont été octroyées à 45 ...

  20. Aquaculture intérieure et adaptation aux changements climatiques ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Les chercheurs exploreront des façons d'adapter les pratiques aquacoles aux changements climatiques et analyseront la valeur de l'aquaculture comme stratégie d'adaptation. Les chercheurs étudieront les ... Papers. Improving climate risk management as an adaptation strategy in inland aquaculture in Northern Thailand ...

  1. Recherche sur l'adaptation aux changements climatiques

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Corey Piccioni

    adaptation aux changements climatiques. Le CRDI est un bailleur de fonds essentiel et un pionnier de la recherche sur l'adaptation aux changements clima- tiques dans les pays en développement. Le Centre a géré un budget de programmes ...

  2. Points névralgiques au regard des changements climatiques ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    28 oct. 2016 ... Les changements climatiques se font sentir partout à l'échelle mondiale, surtout dans les pays en développement. Ces changements se traduisent entre autres par des inondations plus fréquentes et plus importantes, des conditions météorologiques exceptionnelles, de la désertification et une ...

  3. Changements climatiques | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour le ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Read more about Bâtir un monde climato-intelligent. Langue French. Read more about Renforcement des capacités en économie de l'environnement dans la recherche sur l'adaptation aux changements climatiques. Langue French. Read more about Renforcement des connaissances économiques et de la capacité ...

  4. Conférence principale : Le changement climatique mondial, ses ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    10 mai 2011 ... ... systèmes de la terre. Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre Institut national pour la recherche spatiale. Blog du Dr. Nobre au sujet du changement climatique http://blogs.worldbank.org/climatechange/team/carlos-nobre. National Institute for Space Research, Brazil http://www.inpe.br/ingles/index.php ...

  5. Sécurité alimentaire et changements climatiques au Cambodge ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Sécurité alimentaire et changements climatiques au Cambodge. Le Cambodge est l'un des pays les plus pauvres d'Asie. Quelque 70 % de la population gagne sa vie grâce à l'agriculture. L'insécurité alimentaire, dont souffre un nombre grandissant de personnes, touche particulièrement les populations rurales.

  6. Gestion des risques climatiques pour la planification de l'agriculture ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Gestion des risques climatiques pour la planification de l'agriculture et de l'accès aux ressources hydriques en Afrique du Sud ... Étant donné le chevauchement possible des changements climatiques et des formes actuelles de variabilité du climat, ce projet vise à intégrer le traitement actuel de la variabilité climatique ...

  7. Productivité agricole et changements climatiques dans les régions ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... et de production face aux changements climatiques; l'analyse coûts-avantages de l'adaptation aux changements climatiques; la mise à l'essai et à l'échelle de pratiques adaptatives en matière de gestion des cultures, du bétail et des sols; ainsi que la collecte d'information sur les risques climatiques et sa diffusion auprès ...

  8. 118 Variabilité climatique et son incidence sur les ressources en ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MARTINE

    L'étude du changement climatique et de la variabilité climatique est d'une très grande importance pour la ... Le changement et la variabilité climatique ont connu depuis une vingtaine d'années, un intérêt manifeste de ...... hydrologiques et modélisation régionale, Thèse de l'Université de Montpellier II, France, (2001) 257.

  9. Modelisation numerique et validation experimentale d'un systeme de protection contre le givre par elements piezoelectriques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Derek

    Le degivrage au moyen d'actuateurs piezoelectriques est considere comme une avenue prometteuse pour le developpement de systemes a faible consommation d'energie applicables aux helicopteres legers. Ce type de systeme excite des frequences de resonances d'une structure pour produire des deformations suffisantes pour rompre l'adherence de la glace. Par contre, la conception de tel systeme demeure generalement mal comprise. Ce projet de maitrise etudie l'utilisation de methodes numeriques pour assister la conception des systemes de protection contre le givre a base d'elements piezoelectriques. La methodologie retenue pour ce projet a ete de modeliser differentes structures simples et de simuler l'excitation harmonique des frequences de resonance au moyen d'actuateurs piezoelectriques. Le calcul des frequences de resonances ainsi que la simulation de leur excitation a ensuite ete validee a l'aide de montages experimentaux. La procedure a ete realisee pour une poutre en porte-a-faux et pour une plaque plane a l'aide du logiciel de calcul par elements finis, Abaqus. De plus, le modele de la plaque plane a ete utilise afin de realiser une etude parametrique portant sur le positionnement des actuateurs, l'effet de la rigidite ainsi que de l'epaisseur de la plaque. Finalement, la plaque plane a ete degivree en chambre climatique. Des cas de degivrage ont ete simules numeriquement afin d'etudier la possibilite d'utiliser un critere base sur la deformation pour predire le succes du systeme. La validation experimentale a confirme la capacite du logiciel a calculer precisement a la fois les frequences et les modes de resonance d'une structure et a simuler leur excitation par des actuateurs piezoelectriques. L'etude revele que la definition de l'amortissement dans le modele numerique est essentiel pour l'obtention de resultats precis. Les resultats de l'etude parametrique ont demontre l'importance de minimiser l'epaisseur et la rigidite afin de reduire la valeur des frequences

  10. Gestion des risques hydro-climatiques et developpement ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    La gestion des composantes paysagères est aujourd'hui source de conflits du fait de leur inégale répartition. En outre, la recherche effectuée établit un lien entre les risques hydro climatiques et les échecs des différents projets de développement conduits dans le bassin du Zou et propose un mécanisme de gestion efficace ...

  11. Changements climatiques | Page 12 | CRDI - Centre de recherches ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Plus de 2 200 scientifiques et chercheurs de premier plan ont participé à la conférence scientifique Notre avenir commun sous le changement climatique qui s'est déroulée à Paris, en France, en juillet. La conférence s'est attardée aux grandes questions liées au climat en amont de la 21e Conférence des parties de la ...

  12. La gestion des risques climatiques en Afrique du Sud | CRDI ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    5 janv. 2011 ... Avec l'apport des intervenants, l'équipe de recherche aura recours à la modélisation intégrée, regroupant scénarios de changements climatiques, modèle hydrologique et modèle économique, afin d'étudier et de proposer les modes d'affectation de l'eau les plus pratiques et les plus efficients.

  13. Adaptation des politiques de pêche aux changements climatiques ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    21 avr. 2011 ... Si tel est le cas, notre projet aura concrètement permis d'influer sur les politiques. Nous nous étions déjà penchés sur d'autres problèmes, comme la pêche illégale ou la surexploitation, mais l'étude précise des conséquences des changements climatiques est quelque chose de relativement nouveau, tout ...

  14. Perturbation climatique et inondation des bas-fonds : risque de ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Perturbation climatique et inondation des bas-fonds : risque de toxicite ferreuse et de baisse de la production rizicole au Sud-Benin. ... D'une manière générale, le drainage peut être suggéré comme technologie de gestion des sols et des eaux pour une meilleure valorisation agricole des bas-fonds afin d'atténuer les effets ...

  15. Changements climatiques | Page 13 | CRDI - Centre de recherches ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Plus de 2 200 scientifiques et chercheurs de premier plan ont participé à la conférence scientifique Notre avenir commun sous le changement climatique qui s'est déroulée à Paris, en France, en juillet. La conférence s'est attardée aux grandes questions liées au climat en amont de la 21e Conférence des parties de la ...

  16. Adaptation aux changements climatiques des bassins versants en ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Les changements climatiques risquent d'accentuer la variabilité du climat, aggravant le stress hydrique, en particulier pour les groupes marginalisés. ... Le 11 août 2017, des chercheurs et des praticiens se sont réunis à Montréal dans le cadre de la conférence d'une journée intitulée The Global Need for Formal Child Care.

  17. Adaptation aux changements climatiques dans les établissements ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Les personnes vivant dans des établissements urbains informels en Amérique latine et dans les Caraïbes sont très vulnérables aux risques liés à l'eau associés aux changements climatiques. Elles sont également des vecteurs efficaces de mécanismes ascendants et communautaires d'adaptation. Ces mécanismes ...

  18. Les agriculteurs s'adaptent aux changements climatiques en Tunisie ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    23 août 2011 ... Vulnérabilité et adaptation aux changements climatiques des systèmes agraires à Madagascar. \\Madagascar, la quatrième plus grande île au monde, héberge une multitude de formes de vie qu'on ne trouve nulle part ailleurs sur la planète. Voir davantageVulnérabilité et adaptation aux changements ...

  19. Financement de la lutte contre les changements climatiques ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    28 oct. 2016 ... L'initiative de financement de la lutte contre les changements climatiques a été lancée par le CRDI pour mieux connaître et mieux comprendre le rôle du secteur privé et le financement de l'adaptation par rapport aux interventions découlant du développement intelligent appliqué aux changements ...

  20. impacts du changement climatique sur les ressources en eau en ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    AISA

    Les modèles de circulation générale GFD3 et UK89 ont été choisis parmi six modèles (GFD3, UK89, CCCM,. GISS, GF01 et CLIM) avec le modèle hydrologique (WATBAL) pour étudier les impacts du changement climatique sur les ressources en eau du bassin versant du Bandama. Les simulations prédisent en l'an.

  1. Changements climatiques | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour le ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Depuis 2006, le CRDI a financé plus de 100 projets liés au climat et à l'eau, en versant plus de 100 millions CAD à 70 institutions oeuvrant dans plus de 50 pays en Asie, en Afrique, en Amérique latine et dans les Caraïbes. Financement. Le programme Changements climatiques finance la recherche au moyen d'appels ...

  2. Changements climatiques | Page 8 | CRDI - Centre de recherches ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Les agriculteurs pakistanais de la région de l'Hindu Kush à l'ouest de la chaîne de l'Himalaya utilisent une pompe à eau mue par l'énergie solaire pour lutter contre les effets du changement climatique. Cet article fait partie d'une série de reportages sur des projets innovants mis en œuvre dans les pays en développement, ...

  3. Changements climatiques | Page 15 | CRDI - Centre de recherches ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    S'il se peut bien que les changements climatiques viennent aggraver le problème, il ressort de recherches menées dans deux bassins versants du sud du pays que la pollution industrielle, l'exploitation non réglementée des ressources et les changements d'utilisation des terres sont les principales menaces pour la qualité ...

  4. Urbanisation et changements climatiques : une menace pour la ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    22 juin 2016 ... En outre, les habitants de ces régions voient leur sécurité hydrique de plus en plus menacée en raison de l'urbanisation galopante et des répercussions des changements climatiques. Dans son article intitulé Periurban water security in a context of urbanization and climate change: A review of concepts ...

  5. changement climatique, mécanisme actuel de prévention et de ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    mieux comprendre le mécanisme actuel de prévention et de gestion des conflits entre agriculteurs et éleveurs, en ..... financier et identification des zones de transhumances. S N V. Information et .... Figure 3. Perceptions des risques climatiques dans la commune de Banikoara: projection des évènements climatiques et des.

  6. 118 Variabilité climatique et son incidence sur les ressources en ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MARTINE

    années, un intérêt manifeste de la part des hydrologues. ... climatiques, et à mettre en évidence son impact sur les ressources en eau de cette région. ..... source de réflexion pour les autorités dans l'adaptation contre le réchauffement climatique.

  7. Gestion durable de l'eau et changements climatiques dans les petits ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Institution. University of the West Indies BB. Pays d' institution. Barbados. Site internet. http://www.cavehill.uwi.edu/cermes. Contenus connexes. La modélisation intégrée des changements climatiques et les liens entre la recherche et les politiques pour une planification adaptative. Les changements climatiques influencent ...

  8. Vulnérabilité et adaptation face aux changements climatiques et au ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Vulnérabilité et adaptation face aux changements climatiques et au VIH/sida en Afrique du Sud. Les changements climatiques et le VIH/sida sont largement reconnus comme des facteurs aggravants de la pauvreté chronique qui sévit en Afrique subsaharienne. Dans le cadre de ce projet, on cherchera à mieux comprendre ...

  9. Effets des changements climatiques sur la santé en Tunisie | CRDI ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    26 mars 2012 ... La recherche prouve que les changements climatiques ont un impact majeur sur la santé humaine. Les catastrophes naturelles ne cessent d'augmenter, et les maladies à transmission vectorielle se rependent. Toutefois, les efforts déployés pour s'adapter aux effets des changements climatiques peuvent ...

  10. Etude de l'affaiblissement du comportement mecanique du pergelisol du au rechauffement climatique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buteau, Sylvie

    Le rechauffement climatique predit pour les prochaines decennies, aura des impacts majeurs sur le pergelisol qui sont tres peu documentes pour l'instant. La presente etude a pour but d'evaluer ces impacts sur les proprietes mecaniques du pergelisol et sa stabilite a long terme. Une nouvelle technique d'essai de penetration au cone a taux de deformation controle, a ete developpee pour caracteriser en place le pergelisol. Ces essais geotechniques et la mesure de differentes proprietes physiques ont ete effectues sur une butte de pergelisol au cours du printemps 2000. Le developpement et l'utilisation d'un modele geothermique 1D tenant compte de la thermodependance du comportement mecanique ont permis d'evaluer que les etendues de pergelisol chaud deviendraient instables a la suite d'un rechauffement de l'ordre de 5°C sur cent ans. En effet, la resistance mecanique du pergelisol diminuera alors rapidement jusqu'a 11,6 MPa, ce qui correspond a une perte relative de 98% de la resistance par rapport a un scenario sans rechauffement.

  11. Des données locales sur les changements climatiques assurent la ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    13 mai 2015 ... Les changements climatiques et la variabilité du climat représentent une menace importante pour l'agriculture, la sécurité alimentaire et les moyens de subsistance en Afrique subsaharienne.

  12. PERCEPTIONS DE LA vARIABILITÉ CLIMATIqUE ET STRATÉGIES ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    les perceptions de la variabilité climatique et les stratégies d'adaptation utilisées, une enquête semi structuré qui a concerné 60 personnes repartie dans 4 villages du département de Gouré, situé dans l'Est du Niger est conduite selon une approche qualitative et quantitative. Les effets de la variabilité climatique ressentis ...

  13. Adaptation aux effets qu'ont les changements climatiques sur les ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Le projet a pour objectif général d'appuyer la capacité d'adaptation aux effets que les changements climatiques ont sur les ressources en eau au Canada, ... de transfert et d'application des connaissances ayant trait à la salubrité du climat et à la gestion des risques que les changements climatiques présentent pour la ...

  14. Sécurité hydrique et changements climatiques en Amérique centrale ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    L'équipe du projet relèvera les principaux facteurs de stress liés aux changements climatiques, en plus de cartographier et d'évaluer la vulnérabilité saisonnière des ressources hydriques à l'échelle régionale. Elle étudiera également comment les politiques influent sur la vulnérabilité locale aux changements climatiques, ...

  15. Résilience des villes face aux changements climatiques en Asie du ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Résilience des villes face aux changements climatiques en Asie du Sud-Est. La préparation aux changements climatiques est une tâche énorme pour les gouvernements de la région du Mékong, en Asie du Sud-Est. Le présent projet les aidera à gérer ces changements dans un contexte caractérisé par des capacités ...

  16. Solutions d'adaptation liées aux changements climatiques et à l'eau ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Les changements climatiques influencent la fréquence et l'intensité des phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes, exposant à la fois les populations et les économies à des pertes de vie, de... Voir davantageLa modélisation intégrée des changements climatiques et les liens entre la recherche et les politiques pour une ...

  17. Changements climatiques et infiltrations d'eau salée le long du ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Les changements climatiques influencent la fréquence et l'intensité des phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes, exposant à la fois les populations et les économies à des pertes de vie, de... Voir davantageLa modélisation intégrée des changements climatiques et les liens entre la recherche et les politiques pour une ...

  18. Changement climatique : vulnérabilité, impact et adaptation dans les ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Changement climatique : vulnérabilité, impact et adaptation dans les plaines et les zones humides de l'État du Delta au Nigeria. Résumé Le changement climatique a des répercussions énormes au Nigeria comme dans le reste du monde. Ce projet permettra de mieux connaître les principaux moteurs du changement ...

  19. Solutions d'adaptation liées aux changements climatiques et à l'eau ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    La gravité des effets des changements climatiques augmente sans cesse partout dans le monde. Les collectivités vulnérables des pays en développement sont les plus menacées. Ce projet vise à faire connaître les solutions d'adaptation concrètes aux changements climatiques découlant de recherches financées par le ...

  20. Adaptation à la variabilité du climat et aux changements climatiques ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    25 avr. 2014 ... En même temps, selon les prévisions, les changements climatiques entraîneront une hausse des températures et une baisse des précipitations. Étant donné le rôle de la région dans l'économie chilienne, une stratégie d'adaptation aux changements climatiques s'impose de toute urgence. Wine production ...

  1. Communiquer le changement climatique: un voyage dans les stratégies et plans d'adaption

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stoverinck, F.; Dubois, G.; Amelung, B.

    2013-01-01

    Les stratégies d’adaptation au changement climatique devraient normalement s’appuyer sur la meilleure information climatique disponible. Or le constat scientifique initial est souvent transformé, interprété, mis en forme par le processus de politique publique. Le message original s’en trouve

  2. Métrologie en génie climatique

    CERN Document Server

    Dupuis, Thierry

    2009-01-01

    Que ce soit lors de sa réalisation, de sa maintenance ou de son exploitation, l'efficacité énergétique d'une installation de génie climatique (performance, rendement de génération, consommation d'énergie) ne peut être vérifiée qu'à partir de mesurages permettant d'apprécier la grandeur mesurée dans les meilleures conditions. Dans cet ouvrage, les paramètres physiques des installations techniques sont regroupés par thème détaillant chacun les moyens de mesurage envisageables pour une application de " terrain ", les règles et normes en usage, ainsi que les principes physiques permettant de mieux appréhender les manipulations. Sont abordées de manière détaillée : les mesures de débits aérauliques ; les mesures de débits hydrauliques ; les mesures de température ; les mesures d'hygrométrie ; les mesures de pression ; les mesures de combustion ; les mesures acoustiques et vibratoires ; la métrologie, les calculs d'erreur, les incertitudes de mesurage et les tolérances. Cet ouvrage co...

  3. L'action du CRDI L'adaptation aux changements climatiques | CRDI ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    expression « réchauffement de la planète » ne fasse la manchette, le Centre de recherches pour le développement international (CRDI), organisme canadien, finançait des recherches sur les changements climatiques.

  4. Les changements climatiques brouillent les prédictions des faiseurs ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... faute de pouvoir résister aux variations. Selon lui, la mise en place de nouvelles stratégies s'impose afin de pouvoir s'adapter aux changements climatiques. Le Kenya Meteorology Department associe son savoir scientifique au savoir traditionnel des Nganyis, dans le cadre d'un projet dirigé par le Climate Prediction and ...

  5. Changement climatique, mécanisme actuel de prévention et de ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Changement climatique, mécanisme actuel de prévention et de gestion des conflits entre agriculteurs et éleveurs en zone agro pastorale de production cotonnière au nord Bénin ... Conflicts between farmers and breeders have always been marked by various losses with management methods are mostly inappropriate.

  6. Communication des risques reliés aux changements climatiques en ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    adaptation des collectivités vivant sur le littoral et les deltas au Vietnam. Il incombe bien sûr aux gouvernements locaux et nationaux de prendre les décisions relatives à l'adaptation aux changements climatiques; ils doivent toutefois les ...

  7. Changement climatique, mécanisme actuel de prévention et de ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Changement climatique, mécanisme actuel de prévention et de gestion des conflits entre agriculteurs et éleveurs en zone agro pastorale de production cotonnière au nord Bénin : Cas de la commune de banikoara.

  8. Vulnérabilité et adaptation aux changements climatiques des ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Plusieurs acteurs et décideurs participants (décideurs de politiques agricoles, directions régionales du développement rural et services de coordination des mesures d'urgence) sont malheureusement encore loin de cerner la variation spatiale de la vulnérabilité climatique et ne disposent pas encore de suffisamment ...

  9. Deltas, vulnérabilité et changements climatiques : le rôle de la ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    En Afrique et en Asie du Sud, on trouve dans les deltas certaines des densités de population les plus fortes du monde. De nombreux habitants des deltas vivent dans la pauvreté et dépendent de moyens de subsistance qui sont sensibles aux changements climatiques. Ce projet de recherche étudiera cette question.

  10. Protection des régions semi-arides contre les chocs climatiques ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    arides. Le groupe s'est réuni dans le cadre de la conférence Notre avenir commun face au changement climatique, le plus important forum en matière de climatologie tenu avant le prochain sommet sur le climat, soit la 21e Conférence des Parties.

  11. Variabilité climatique et son incidence sur les ressources en eaux ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Variabilité climatique et son incidence sur les ressources en eaux de surface : cas des stations de Bocanda et de Dimbokro, Centre-Est de la Côte d'Ivoire en ... are of great importance for water resources and management and planning in this paper, we put our attention on the impact of these two phenomena on the water ...

  12. LE CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ET LA FORÊT MÉTROPOLITAINE FRANÇAISE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GÉRARD BELTRANDO

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Les signes du changement climatique semblent de plus en plus nombreux et les écosystèmes en place, ainsi que les activités humaines qui en dépendent, s’y adaptent au mieux de leur possibilité. La forêt - dont le fonctionnement et la productivité sont étroitement dépendants du climat - est particulièrement concernée et, mis à part les effets des événements de fréquence rare (tempêtes de décembre 1999, canicule et sécheresse de l’été 2003…, son taux de croissance s’est accrut depuis près d’un demi-siècle et en particulier depuis les années 1980. Mais cette augmentation a des limites qui pourront être atteintes rapidement et pas uniquement sous l’effet du changement climatique. Comment le changement climatique va-t-il se répercuter sur la forêt métropolitaine française ? Quel scénario de changement climatique faudrait-il prendre en compte ? Quels conseils peuvent être connus aux forestiers qui doivent gérer et planter des arbres qui seront exploités par les générations futures ?

  13. Plans d'action sur l'adaptation aux changements climatiques pour ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Plans d'action sur l'adaptation aux changements climatiques pour gérer le stress thermique dans les villes indiennes ... The Fifth Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change identifies the key risks for South Asia as increased river, coastal, and urban flooding as well as drought-related water and food.

  14. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...

  15. Ground observations and remote sensing data for integrated modelisation of water budget in the Merguellil catchment, Tunisia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mougenot, Bernard

    2016-04-01

    The Mediterranean region is affected by water scarcity. Some countries as Tunisia reached the limit of 550 m3/year/capita due overexploitation of low water resources for irrigation, domestic uses and industry. A lot of programs aim to evaluate strategies to improve water consumption at regional level. In central Tunisia, on the Merguellil catchment, we develop integrated water resources modelisations based on social investigations, ground observations and remote sensing data. The main objective is to close the water budget at regional level and to estimate irrigation and water pumping to test scenarios with endusers. Our works benefit from French, bilateral and European projects (ANR, MISTRALS/SICMed, FP6, FP7…), GMES/GEOLAND-ESA) and also network projects as JECAM and AERONET, where the Merguellil site is a reference. This site has specific characteristics associating irrigated and rainfed crops mixing cereals, market gardening and orchards and will be proposed as a new environmental observing system connected to the OMERE, TENSIFT and OSR systems respectively in Tunisia, Morocco and France. We show here an original and large set of ground and remote sensing data mainly acquired from 2008 to present to be used for calibration/validation of water budget processes and integrated models for present and scenarios: - Ground data: meteorological stations, water budget at local scale: fluxes tower, soil fluxes, soil and surface temperature, soil moisture, drainage, flow, water level in lakes, aquifer, vegetation parameters on selected fieds/month (LAI, height, biomass, yield), land cover: 3 times/year, bare soil roughness, irrigation and pumping estimations, soil texture. - Remote sensing data: remote sensing products from multi-platform (MODIS, SPOT, LANDSAT, ASTER, PLEIADES, ASAR, COSMO-SkyMed, TerraSAR X…), multi-wavelength (solar, micro-wave and thermal) and multi-resolution (0.5 meters to 1 km). Ground observations are used (1) to calibrate soil

  16. Robert et Maya Kandel, La Catastrophe climatique, Hachette, 2009, 237 p.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luc Semal

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Robert Kandel, astrophysicien et directeur de recherche émérite au CNRS, n’en est pas à son premier ouvrage sur le réchauffement climatique. Dans ce nouvel essai (co-rédigé avec sa fille Maya Kandel, il est intéressant de constater un changement de ton assez représentatif de l’inquiétude croissante des scientifiques à l’égard du bouleversement climatique en cours. Tout en rappelant qu’il a longtemps fait preuve de méfiance à l’égard des discours catastrophistes, Robert Kandel annonce dès l’i...

  17. SOS-21, jeu de sensibilisation aux enjeux du réchauffement climatique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michel Arnaud

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Les jeux de simulation et en particulier les « serious games » peuvent aider les citoyens à non seulement prendre conscience des dangers du réchauffement climatique mais aussi à adopter des comportements respectueux de l’environnement en s’inscrivant dans le cadre du développement durable. Le meilleur moyen de les impliquer est de leur proposer des indicateurs personnalisés leur permettant de mesurer les émissions de GES provoquées par leurs activités quotidiennes et de leur en montrer les conséquences sur l’environnement. Après avoir rappelé les principaux paramètres relatifs au réchauffement climatique, l’article explore les alternatives au scénario catastrophe avant d’aborder les possibilités d’apprentissage offertes par le jeu de simulation SOS-21.

  18. Impact des changements climatiques sur les revenus agricoles au Burkina Faso

    OpenAIRE

    Mathieu Ouedraogo

    2012-01-01

    Cette étude évalue l’impact des changements climatiques sur les revenus agricoles des agriculteurs au Burkina Faso, en utilisant l’approche ricardienne. Cette méthode permet de modéliser les revenus agricoles en fonction des variables climatiques, édaphiques, hydrologiques et socio-économiques. Plusieurs modèles économétriques ont été testés sur la base des données primaires de la campagne agricole 2002-2003. Ces modèles ont permis d’établir d’une part la relation qui existe entre le revenu a...

  19. Les changements climatiques menacent l'écosystème des ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    8 août 2014 ... Mangroves in Tumbes, Peru. L'impact d'El Niño. Les changements climatiques ne sont pas le seul facteur qui perturbe les mangroves dans le nord-ouest du Pérou. La région subit aussi l'influence du réchauffement de la surface de l'océan Pacifique équatorial, qui se produit tous les deux à sept ans.

  20. Perception paysanne du changement climatique et stratégies d ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SARAH

    25 avr. 2013 ... soulignent que le climat joue un rôle déterminant au niveau de l'agriculture en ayant un impact direct sur la productivité des facteurs physiques de production, comme l'humidité et la fertilité du sol. Le réchauffement climatique croissant a eu pour conséquences l'occurrence de désastres de nature.

  1. Gestion des changements climatiques dans les mégapoles côtières ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Le projet a pour objectif général la constitution d'un corpus de connaissances et le renforcement de la capacité des mégapoles en vue de l'adaptation aux risques que posent les effets des changements climatiques, notamment l'élévation du niveau des océans, dans un contexte de croissance et de développement urbains ...

  2. Adaptation aux changements climatiques grâce à une gestion ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Cette équipe évaluera les problèmes de disponibilité de l'eau et de gestion du bassin versant dans le bassin du Tensift, notamment sur les plans biophysique, écologique, climatique et socio-économique. Elle utilisera des modèles pour estimer les futurs schémas d'utilisation des ressources hydriques afin de déterminer ...

  3. Gouvernance de l'eau, désertification et changements climatiques ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    La situation s'étant amplifiée en raison des changements climatiques, les conflits liés à l'eau continuent de s'intensifier. En mettant au point des scénarios qui décrivent ... Autonomy and Community Management of Protected Areas in Neuquen and Araucania (Argentina and Chile). The Mapuche are an indigenous people ...

  4. Adaptation des politiques de pêche aux changements climatiques à ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Le secteur de la pêche ressente les changements climatiques de différents manières, soit dans la composition des populations animales et végétales, dans des modifications des courants marins ou dans la fréquence et l'intensité des tempêtes tropicales. D'ailleurs, la sur pêche et la dégradation de l'environnement côtier ...

  5. Combler les lacunes en matière de données climatiques et de ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Les lacunes dans l'échange de connaissances et de renseignements entre agriculteurs et responsables des politiques, et la déficience des communications susceptibles d'en résulter, pourraient saper l'adaptation aux changements climatiques. Une manière de surmonter ce problème consiste à établir un système de ...

  6. Impacts économiques et sociaux des changements climatiques sur l ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Le projet étudiera l'attribution de l'eau dans les divers secteurs productifs des trois bassins et estimera la demande d'eau pour l'agriculture, l'industrie et la consommation domestique. La recherche identifiera les groupes vulnérables touchés par le stress hydrique engendré par les changements climatiques. On fera appel à ...

  7. Risques et possibilités liés aux changements climatiques pour les ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Si de nombreuses entreprises privées ont fait des progrès concernant le renforcement de leur propre résilience face aux changements climatiques, elles se sont moins investies dans la création de ... Plateforme régionale sur les ordinateurs personnels, déchets électroniques en Amérique latine et dans les Caraïbes.

  8. Amélioration de l'adaptation aux changements climatiques des ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Amélioration de l'adaptation aux changements climatiques des pasteurs du nord du Kenya. Près de 13 % des 30 millions d'habitants du Kenya sont des pasteurs dont les troupeaux vivent dans des terres arides et semi-arides qui composent environ 75 % de la masse terrestre du pays. Ces régions sont sujettes à une ...

  9. Vulnérabilité et adaptation aux changements climatiques des ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    21 avr. 2016 ... Madagascar, la quatrième plus grande île au monde, héberge une multitude de formes de vie qu'on ne trouve nulle part ailleurs sur la planète. Dans la plupart des cas, cette biodiversité est extrêmement vulnérable aux changements climatiques, tout comme l'agriculture pluviale, la pêche et la foresterie, ...

  10. Changements climatiques et déterminants d'adoption de la fumure ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cet article analyse les facteurs socio-économiques qui influencent l'utilisation de la fumure organique face à la baisse de la fertilité des sols dans un contexte de changements climatiques dans la région semi-aride de Kibwezi. Un modèle Logit est estimé pour isoler les variables affectant la décision d'utiliser la fumure ...

  11. Risques et possibilités liés aux changements climatiques pour les ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Si de nombreuses entreprises privées ont fait des progrès concernant le renforcement de leur propre résilience face aux changements climatiques, elles se sont moins investies dans la création de collectivités résilientes face au climat. Il existe toutefois un mouvement croissant dans lequel figure un type nouveau ...

  12. L'adaptation aux changements climatiques pour réduire la pauvreté

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    l'interdépendance urbano-rurale, au Malawi et en Tanzanie, les chercheurs ont pu compter sur la collaboration des ministères de l'Agriculture et des agents de ... stratégies locales d'adaptation, au Sénégal, a convaincu le conseil rural de soutenir l'adaptation aux changements climatiques : celui-ci a débloqué des fonds ...

  13. Les changements climatiques brouillent les prédictions des faiseurs ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    8 oct. 2010 ... Depuis des générations, les autochtones de l'ouest du Kenya comptent sur les pouvoirs mystiques que possèdent les « faiseurs de pluie » du clan Nganyi pour prédire la météo. Cependant, le temps instable amené par les changements climatiques brouille les indices grâce auxquels les faiseurs de pluie ...

  14. Vers une éthique climatique plus efficace : motivations et incitations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michel Bourban

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Cet article vise à justifier, puis à appliquer une éthique climatique centrée sur les intérêts des acteurs économiques. Après avoir expliqué pourquoi le changement climatique pose un problème important de motivation, je montre pour quelles raisons les incitations peuvent au moins partiellement y remédier. Je développe ensuite deux possibilités d’institutionnalisation de l’éthique des incitations. La première consiste en une taxe internationale augmentant progressivement le coût des émissions de dioxyde de carbone, un dispositif auquel il convient d’ajouter des subsides pour la recherche, le développement et le déploiement des énergies renouvelables. La seconde consiste en un marché global du carbone qui vise également à décourager l’utilisation des combustibles fossiles et à encourager l’utilisation de sources alternatives d’énergie. L’objectif est de montrer qu’une éthique climatique prenant en compte le problème de la motivation est plus efficace qu’une position qui se limite aux devoirs moraux incombant aux consommateurs et producteurs, soit de réduire leurs émissions.

  15. Controverse, polémique, expertise : trois notions pour aborder le débat sur le changement climatique en France

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mauger-Parat, Marion; Peliz, Ana Carolina

    2013-01-01

    ... en débat de la question climatique : l’expertise, la controverse et la polémique. Il est question de comprendre la construction et la circulation du discours sur le changement climatique dans la presse française. Au-delà...

  16. Programme de bourses de recherche sur le changement climatique ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Journal articles. Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios : the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa ... Driving vaccine innovations to improve lives and livelihoods. Five world-class research teams are working to develop vaccines for neglected livestock diseases in the Global South.

  17. Impact des changements climatiques sur les revenus agricoles au Burkina Faso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathieu Ouedraogo

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Cette étude évalue l’impact des changements climatiques sur les revenus agricoles des agriculteurs au Burkina Faso, en utilisant l’approche ricardienne. Cette méthode permet de modéliser les revenus agricoles en fonction des variables climatiques, édaphiques, hydrologiques et socio-économiques. Plusieurs modèles économétriques ont été testés sur la base des données primaires de la campagne agricole 2002-2003. Ces modèles ont permis d’établir d’une part la relation qui existe entre le revenu agricole et les variables climatiques (température et précipitation et d’autre part, d’analyser la sensibilité des revenus agricoles par rapport à ces variables climatiques. Des simulations ont été faites sur la base des prévisions du groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC. Les résultats de l’étude ont montré que la relation entre le revenu et le climat est non linéaire. L’impact marginal de la température sur le revenu agricole est de -19,9 dollars US par hectare tandis que celui de la précipitation est de +2,7 dollars US par hectare. L’analyse des élasticités montre que l’agriculture est très sensible à la précipitation au Burkina. L’augmentation des précipitations de 1% entraine une hausse des revenus agricoles de 14,7%. Cependant, une augmentation des températures de 1% entraine une baisse des revenus agricoles de 3,6%. Les analyses de sensibilité ont montré que les paysans perdront 93% de leurs revenus suite à une augmentation de la température de 5°C. Ils perdront tout leur revenu suite à une diminution des précipitations de 14% (ceteris paribus. Du fait des conditions climatiques déjà difficiles, les scenarii de diminution des précipitations ou/et d’augmentation des températures sont très dommageables à l’agriculture au Burkina. Par ailleurs, l’étude a montré que la pratique de l’irrigation et l’accès à la vulgarisation ont un effet

  18. Observatoire National sur les Effets du Réchauffement Climatique (ONERC) : L’adaptation de la France au changement climatique. Rapport au Premier ministre et au Parlement

    OpenAIRE

    Norrant-Romand, Caroline

    2013-01-01

    Á l’heure actuelle, le changement climatique, constaté par les experts et qui fait consensus dans la communauté scientifique, a commencé à affecter nos sociétés et les milieux naturels environnants. Ces conséquences seront de plus en plus présentes dans les décennies à venir, c’est pourquoi en plus de la lutte contre le changement climatique, les territoires doivent également s’adapter et anticiper. C’est la raison pour laquelle, en 2001, lorsqu’est promulguée la loi déclarant la lutte contre...

  19. Outil d’évaluation de l’impact du changement climatique sur l’agriculture en France

    OpenAIRE

    BERTUZZI, Patrick; Munier Jolain, Nathalie; Gaunand, Ariane; Colinet, Laurence; Institut National de Recherche Agronomique UAR 1155 Département Environnement et Agronomie

    2014-01-01

    L’ANR Climator a été un moteur de l’élaboration de stratégies d’adaptation au changement climatique, contribuant notamment à la formulation de la prospective nationale AFClim conduite par le Centre d’Etudes et de Prospective du ministère de l’agriculture. Les acteurs agricoles ont été sensibilisés aux effets concrets du changement climatique localement et pour diverses filières. Des observatoires mis en place par certaines régions, l’Etat et l’ADEME mobilisent les enseignements de Climator po...

  20. Pollen dans l’air du Plateau suisse: paramètres climatiques et nouveaux risques pour les allergies

    OpenAIRE

    Clot, Bernard; Küpfer, Philippe

    2007-01-01

    L'augmentation spectaculaire de la prévalence des allergies au pollen dans les dernières décennies a stimulé le développement de l’aérobiologie. Le but de ce travail consistait à mieux circonscrire les paramètres climatiques et météorologiques qui influencent la saison pollinique, dans une perspective prédictive, à évaluer l’influence du changement climatique sur la saison pollinique et à déterminer quels pollens pourraient exposer la population à de nouveaux risques dans le domaine des aller...

  1. Plans d'action sur l'adaptation aux changements climatiques pour ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    En dépit des modèles climatiques qui prévoient un réchauffement du climat et une augmentation de la fréquence des événements de chaleur extrême dans les années à venir, en Inde, l'ampleur de cette menace est peu reconnue par les dirigeants. Les systèmes de soutien administratif sont généralement dépourvus de ...

  2. Caractérisation de la variabilité climatique : cas du bassin versant ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DK

    Le réchauffement à été de l'ordre 0.8. Souk-Ahras et de 0.35 accroissement de température partic changement climatique local et glo s'accorde avec les observations fai ailleurs sur l'augmentation des tempéra cours des dernières décennies en Algérie tures mensuelles aux stations de Souk-Ahras et Tébessa. Avril Mai ...

  3. Adaptation aux changements climatiques dans la vallée de Mantaro ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Grâce à plusieurs études pluridisciplinaires, l'institut a pu établir le niveau de risque que les phénomènes climatiques extrêmes posent pour la population et les infrastructures publiques de la vallée. Les constatations ayant émané de ces études ont incité l'institut à recommander l'adoption d'une stratégie de gestion des ...

  4. Perception des risques liés aux changements climatiques dans les ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    L'équipe du projet Perception du risque et vulnérabilité des milieux humides sur la côte atlantique de l'Amérique du Sud, qui a commencé en 2012, privilégie une démarche de gestion intégrée des zones côtières et s'appuie sur les perceptions que les parties prenantes ont des risques liés aux changements climatiques ...

  5. Combler les lacunes en matière de données climatiques et de ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Mis en oeuvre par l'Institute of Policy Studies du Sri Lanka, ce projet vise à améliorer l'efficacité des décisions des agriculteurs, d'une part, et des responsables des politiques et des experts, d'autre part, en établissant et en mettant à l'essai des modèles pilotes de systèmes de gestion intégrée des données climatiques ...

  6. Adaptation aux changements climatiques au Malawi grâce à l ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    taire : cette culture est à la fois très vulnérable aux effets des changements climatiques et tributaire des fortes ... des plantes nutritives ayant la propriété de fixer l'azote, comme le pois cajan et le soja –, le rendement du ... réduire la dépendance aux engrais importés et accroître la résilience face à la sécheresse. Tandis que ...

  7. Eau, santé et adaptation aux changements climatiques en Afrique ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    En Afrique de l'Ouest et en Afrique du Nord, les conséquences de la variabilité du climat sur les aspects de la santé humaine touchés par la quantité et la qualité de l'eau se font de plus en plus sentir. Puisque, selon toute probabilité, les changements climatiques vont aggraver l'une et l'autre, pour réagir adéquatement, ...

  8. Vulnérabilité des troupeaux transhumants aux mutations climatiques ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    L'élevage bovin occupe une place importante parmi les activités des populations du Nord-Est du Bénin. Cette activité est très vulnérable aux mutations climatiques dans le bassin de la Sota à Malanville situé à l'extrême Nord-Est du Bénin. La présente recherche vise, d'une part, à appréhender, les perceptions des ...

  9. Sécurité hydrique et changements climatiques en Amérique centrale ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Sécurité hydrique et changements climatiques en Amérique centrale et dans les Caraïbes. Il ressort d'études récentes que les pénuries d'eau en Amérique centrale et dans les Caraïbes seront aggravées par la croissance urbaine, les taux de pauvreté élevés, la faiblesse des institutions et l'insuffisance des investissements ...

  10. Impact de la variabilité climatique sur le régime des cours d'eau du ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    cameroun : climat équatorial. ... entretient vraisemblablement une humidité du sol plus élevée favorable au ruissellement au début de la crue d'automne. Mots clefs : changement climatique ; climat équatorial ; séries chronologiques ; Sud Cameroun.

  11. La modélisation intégrée des changements climatiques et les liens ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    une information de grande qualité afin de définir la nature et l'échelle des ... Le programme Changements climatiques et eau (CCE) du CRDI compte plus de 20 projets qui comportent d'importants volets de modélisation, dont un certain ...

  12. Régulation en génie climatique froid, climatisation, chauffage

    CERN Document Server

    Desmons, Jean

    2010-01-01

    Après un rappel des bases de l'électronique et de l'hydraulique nécessaires en régulation climatique, cet ouvrage donne tous les éléments méthodologiques et technologiques pour : concevoir les systèmes de régulation adaptés aux installations de froid, de climatisation et de chauffage ; mettre en oeuvre les régulateurs (entrées / sorties, réglage, paramétrage, dépannage, repérage et contrôle) ; pratiquer la maintenance des installations. Il regroupe notamment plusieurs cas pratiques de régulation d'installations réelles : groupe à eau glacée, bloc opératoire, pompes à chaleur, régulation numérique, détente directe, alimentation en fluide frigoporteur. Cette seconde édition révisée et mise à jour s'enrichit également d'une section sur les installations photovoltaïques et d'un nouveau chapitre sur la régulation numérique et les systèmes informatiques. Cet ouvrage constitue un outil de travail indispensable aux ingénieurs et techniciens en froid et génie climatique et en régu...

  13. Climate change, cash transfers and health/Changement climatique, transferts d'argent et sante/Cambio climatico, transferencias de efectivo y salud

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pega, Frank; Shaw, Caroline; Rasanathan, Kumanan; Yablonski, Jennifer; Kawachi, Ichiro; Hales, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Les consequences attendues du changement climatique sur la sante humaine sont importantes, en particulier dans les pays a revenu faible et intermediaire et pour les populations les plus defavorisees...

  14. Gestion des ressources hydriques adaptee aux changements climatiques pour la production optimale d'hydroelectricite. Etude de cas: Bassin versant de la riviere Manicouagan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haguma, Didier

    Il est dorenavant etabli que les changements climatiques auront des repercussions sur les ressources en eau. La situation est preoccupante pour le secteur de production d'energie hydroelectrique, car l'eau constitue le moteur pour generer cette forme d'energie. Il sera important d'adapter les regles de gestion et/ou les installations des systemes hydriques, afin de minimiser les impacts negatifs et/ou pour capitaliser sur les retombees positives que les changements climatiques pourront apporter. Les travaux de la presente recherche s'interessent au developpement d'une methode de gestion des systemes hydriques qui tient compte des projections climatiques pour mieux anticiper les impacts de l'evolution du climat sur la production d'hydroelectricite et d'etablir des strategies d'adaptation aux changements climatiques. Le domaine d'etude est le bassin versant de la riviere Manicouagan situe dans la partie centrale du Quebec. Une nouvelle approche d'optimisation des ressources hydriques dans le contexte des changements climatiques est proposee. L'approche traite le probleme de la saisonnalite et de la non-stationnarite du climat d'une maniere explicite pour representer l'incertitude rattachee a un ensemble des projections climatiques. Cette approche permet d'integrer les projections climatiques dans le probleme d'optimisation des ressources en eau pour une gestion a long terme des systemes hydriques et de developper des strategies d'adaptation de ces systemes aux changements climatiques. Les resultats montrent que les impacts des changements climatiques sur le regime hydrologique du bassin de la riviere Manicouagan seraient le devancement et l'attenuation de la crue printaniere et l'augmentation du volume annuel d'apports. L'adaptation des regles de gestion du systeme hydrique engendrerait une hausse de la production hydroelectrique. Neanmoins, une perte de la performance des installations existantes du systeme hydrique serait observee a cause de l'augmentation des

  15. New modelling method for fast reactor neutronic behaviours analysis; Nouvelles methodes de modelisation neutronique des reacteurs rapides de quatrieme Generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacquet, P.

    2011-05-23

    Due to safety rules running on fourth generation reactors' core development, neutronics simulation tools have to be as accurate as never before. First part of this report enumerates every step of fast reactor's neutronics simulation implemented in current reference code: ECCO. Considering the field of fast reactors that meet criteria of fourth generation, ability of models to describe self-shielding phenomenon, to simulate neutrons leakage in a lattice of fuel assemblies and to produce representative macroscopic sections is evaluated. The second part of this thesis is dedicated to the simulation of fast reactors' core with steel reflector. These require the development of advanced methods of condensation and homogenization. Several methods are proposed and compared on a typical case: the ZONA2B core of MASURCA reactor. (author) [French] Les criteres de surete qui regissent le developpement de coeurs de reacteurs de quatrieme generation implique l'usage d'outils de calcul neutronique performants. Une premiere partie de la these reprend toutes les etapes de modelisation neutronique des reacteurs rapides actuellement d'usage dans le code de reference ECCO. La capacite des modeles a decrire le phenomene d'autoprotection, a representer les fuites neutroniques au niveau d'un reseau d'assemblages combustibles et a generer des sections macroscopiques representatives est appreciee sur le domaine des reacteurs rapides innovants respectant les criteres de quatrieme generation. La deuxieme partie de ce memoire se consacre a la modelisation des coeurs rapides avec reflecteur acier. Ces derniers necessitent le developpement de methodes avancees de condensation et d'homogenisation. Plusieurs methodes sont proposees et confrontees sur un probleme de modelisation typique: le coeur ZONA2B du reacteur maquette MASURCA

  16. Jean-Baptiste Comby, La Question climatique. Genèse et dépolitisation d’un problème public (Raisons d’Agir, 2015)

    OpenAIRE

    Tasset, Cyprien

    2016-01-01

    Une sociologie de la dépolitisation du changement climatique La radicalité climatique Comment se fait-il que la question du réchauffement climatique, qui est portée à l’attention publique dans les démocraties occidentales depuis de nombreuses années maintenant, n’ait pas abouti à des changements politiques proportionnés à l’extrême gravité que lui prêtent les scientifiques ? Dans La Question climatique, issu d’une thèse en information-communication soutenue en 2008, Jean-Baptiste Comby propos...

  17. Modelisation frequentielle de la permittivite du beton pour le controle non destructif par georadar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourdi, Taoufik

    Le georadar (Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR)) constitue une technique de controle non destructif (CND) interessante pour la mesure des epaisseurs des dalles de beton et la caracterisation des fractures, en raison de ses caracteristiques de resolution et de profondeur de penetration. Les equipements georadar sont de plus en plus faciles a utiliser et les logiciels d'interpretation sont en train de devenir plus aisement accessibles. Cependant, il est ressorti dans plusieurs conferences et ateliers sur l'application du georadar en genie civil qu'il fallait poursuivre les recherches, en particulier sur la modelisation et les techniques de mesure des proprietes electriques du beton. En obtenant de meilleures informations sur les proprietes electriques du beton aux frequences du georadar, l'instrumentation et les techniques d'interpretation pourraient etre perfectionnees plus efficacement. Le modele de Jonscher est un modele qui a montre son efficacite dans le domaine geophysique. Pour la premiere fois, son utilisation dans le domaine genie civil est presentee. Dans un premier temps, nous avons valide l'application du modele de Jonscher pour la caracterisation de la permittivite dielectrique du beton. Les resultats ont montre clairement que ce modele est capable de reproduire fidelement la variation de la permittivite de differents types de beton sur la bande de frequence georadar (100 MHz-2 GHz). Dans un deuxieme temps, nous avons montre l'interet du modele de Jonscher en le comparant a d'autres modeles (Debye et Debye-etendu) deja utilises dans le domaine genie civil. Nous avons montre aussi comment le modele de Jonscher peut presenter une aide a la prediction de l'efficacite de blindage et a l'interpretation des ondes de la technique GPR. Il a ete determine que le modele de Jonscher permet de donner une bonne presentation de la variation de la permittivite du beton dans la gamme de frequence georadar consideree. De plus, cette modelisation est valable pour differents

  18. 6. Réchauffement climatique, migrations forcées et droits de l’homme

    OpenAIRE

    Cometti, Geremia

    2011-01-01

    L’augmentation de 0,74º Celsius de la température moyenne depuis la fin du XIXe siècle a déjà provoqué des changements écologiques importants dans la biosphère. Une des conséquences du réchauffement climatique est l’élévation du niveau de la mer. Le point le plus haut de Tuvalu, un petit Etat polynésien formé de neuf atolls, se situe seulement à 4 mètres au-dessus du niveau de la mer et, d’ici 2050, Tuvalu pourrait disparaître des suites de la montée des océans. Cette situation pose de nombre...

  19. Le cèdre en France face au changement climatique : bilan et recommandations

    OpenAIRE

    Lagacherie, Michèle; Marty, Pauline; Ladier, Jean; Ripert, Christian; Riou-Nivert, Philippe; Huard, Frederic; Amandier, Louis; Paillassa, Eric

    2012-01-01

    / Face au changement climatique, le cèdre est souvent présenté comme une des essences potentielles de substitution aux espèces sensibles à la sécheresse. L’expérience ancienne acquise en région méditerranéenne et les essais plus récents en région tempérée confirment son intérêt. Pour autant, l’utilisation du cèdre doit répondre à des exigences strictes sous peine d’échec. À partir de l’état des connaissances sur le cèdre de l’Atlas, tirées de la bibliograph...

  20. MTF performance: measurements, modelisation, and optimization for Sofradir II-VI IR photodetectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berthoz, Jocelyn; Rubaldo, Laurent; Maillard, Magalie; Taalat, Rachid; Grille, Romain; Péré-Laperne, Nicolas; Kerlain, Alexandre; Ferron, Alexandre; Gravrand, Olivier

    2015-01-01

    SOFRADIR is widely present on the IR detector market for high-performance space, military and security applications thanks to a well mastered Mercury Cadmium Telluride (MCT) technology, and to the recent acquisition of the III-V InSb, InGaAs, and QWIP technologies. As a result, strong and continuous development efforts are deployed to deliver cutting edge products with improved performances in terms of sensitivity, spatial and thermal resolution. The actual trend in quantum IR detector development is the design of very small pixel, with high operating temperature. The selfconfinement of neighboring diodes may not be efficient enough to maintain optimal modulation transfert function (MTF). This paper presents the recent developments achieved in Sofradir in terms of MTF measurements protocol challenged by the pitch reduction. An overview of state of the art MTF results with optimized measurement technic will be shown, from SWIR to VLWIR MCT focal plane. In order to optimize device performances and reduce development cycle time, this experimental approach has been coupled with finite elements modelisation (FEM). Optimized MTF results for 10μm pitch and HOT MCT technology will be exposed.

  1. Biological Rhythms Modelisation of Vigilance and Sleep in Microgravity State with COSINOR and Volterra's Kernels Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudeua de Gerlicz, C.; Golding, J. G.; Bobola, Ph.; Moutarde, C.; Naji, S.

    2008-06-01

    The spaceflight under microgravity cause basically biological and physiological imbalance in human being. Lot of study has been yet release on this topic especially about sleep disturbances and on the circadian rhythms (alternation vigilance-sleep, body, temperature...). Factors like space motion sickness, noise, or excitement can cause severe sleep disturbances. For a stay of longer than four months in space, gradual increases in the planned duration of sleep were reported. [1] The average sleep in orbit was more than 1.5 hours shorter than the during control periods on earth, where sleep averaged 7.9 hours. [2] Alertness and calmness were unregistered yield clear circadian pattern of 24h but with a phase delay of 4h.The calmness showed a biphasic component (12h) mean sleep duration was 6.4 structured by 3-5 non REM/REM cycles. Modelisations of neurophysiologic mechanisms of stress and interactions between various physiological and psychological variables of rhythms have can be yet release with the COSINOR method. [3

  2. Changement climatique et domaines skiables: simulation en Savoie et Haute-Savoie à l’horizon 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Christophe Loubier

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Les domaines skiables et le changement climatique posent des questions importantes et nouvelles pour les espaces montagnards. Dans les hautes vallées où ces domaines sont souvent le moteur principal du développement local, on peut s'interroger sur la pérennité du modèle économique de l'or blanc à moyen terme quand les modèles de simulation du climat tablent sur une élévation de la température moyenne comprise entre 1,5° et 5° en 2100. Nous avons tenté de simuler les effets du changement climatique à l'horizon 2015, sur les domaines skiables de Savoie et Haute Savoie.

  3. L'amélioration de l'accès à l'information climatique permet de ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    B Gebru et E Mworozi. L'amélioration de l'accès à l'information climatique permet de réduire les pertes et les dommages causés aux récoltes en. Ouganda .... naturelles, du développement communautaire, du commerce et des communications. Les efforts concertés de tous ces acteurs ont rendu possibles la production et la ...

  4. Impact de la variabilité climatique sur la production du maïs et de l ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    En Côte d'Ivoire, les perturbations pluviométriques impactent la production agricole en agriculture pluviale conventionnelle. C'est donc dans ce contexte que cette étude est menée, afin d'analyser les variations climatiques et leurs incidences sur les tendances de productions du maïs et de l'igname en zones Centre et Nord ...

  5. Les ecarts de financement en matiere d'adaptation aux changements climatiques - avec la perspective des CPDN

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olhoff, Anne; Bee, Skylar; Puig, Daniel

    rapport sur les écarts financiers et les options permettant de les combler. Le rapport sera publié au printemps 2016. Cette mise à jour doit contribuer aux débats lors de la 21ème session de la Conférence des Parties (COP 21) à la Convention-Cadre des Nations Unies sur les Changements Climatiques (CCNUCC...

  6. Atmospheric sulfur and climate changes: a modelling study at mid and high-southern latitudes; Soufre atmospherique et changements climatiques: une etude de modelisation pour les moyennes et hautes latitudes Sud

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castebrunet, H

    2007-09-15

    The mid and high-southern latitudes are still marginally affected by anthropogenic sulfur emissions. They are the only regions in the world where the natural cycle of the atmospheric sulfur may still be observed. Sulfur aerosols are well-known for their radiative impact, and thus interact with climate. Climate can in turn affect atmospheric sulfur sources, distribution and chemistry. Antarctic ice cores provide information on the evolution of climate and sulfur deposition at the surface of the ice sheet at glacial-interglacial time scales. The aim of this thesis is to develop and use modeling towards a better understanding of the atmospheric sulfur cycle in antarctic and sub-antarctic regions. Ice core data are used to validate model results under glacial climate conditions. An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) coupled to a sulfur chemistry module is used: the LMD-ZTSulfur model, version 4. An update of both the physical and chemical parts of the model. The model was first performed. The impact of there changes on modelled sulfur cycle are evaluated for modern climate. Further, boundary conditions are adapted to simulate the atmospheric circulation and sulfur cycle at the Last Glacial Maximum, approximately 20,000 years ago. In the model, sulfur is found to be highly sensitive to antarctic sea-ice coverage, which is still poorly known during the ice age. An original dataset of ice-age sea-ice coverage was developed. Its impact on the oceanic emissions of dimethyl sulfide, main precursor of sulfur aerosols at high-southern latitudes, is discussed. Using the same oceanic sulfur reservoirs as for present day climate, the model broadly reproduces the glacial deposits of sulfur aerosols on the Antarctic plateau, suggesting little impact of climate on oceanic sulfur production in the Antarctic region. Sensitivity tests were carried out to draw an up-to-date status of major uncertainties and difficulties facing future progress in understanding atmospheric sulfur and climate. (author)

  7. Integrated simulation, evaluation of the climatic risks and safety policies. Synthesis report july 2002; Modelisation integree, evaluation des risques climatiques et des politiques de precaution. Rapport de synthese juillet 2002

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.Ch. [CNRS, Directeur d' etude, EHESS, Directeur, CIRED, 94 - Nogent Sur Marne (France); LeTreut, H. [CNRS, Directeur de recherche, LMD, LMD, 75 - Paris (France)

    2002-07-15

    The aim of this program is the improvement of the natural phenomena representation in the integrated models of the climate policies evaluation and to precise the methodological problems resulting from the damages treatment. It underlines the importance of the retroactions between the CO{sub 2} emissions, the lands affectation and the carbon cycle, as the importance of the uncertainties on the climate sensitivity. (A.L.B.)

  8. Effet des conditions climatiques sur le niveau du lac Sidi Ali (Moyen Atlas, Maroc

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claude Martin

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Le lac Sidi Ali est un lac naturel d'altitude (2070-2080 m, sans exutoire superficiel, déterminé par le barrage d'une coulée basaltique. Doté d'un bassin versant apparent de 15,6 km2, il est alimenté par des eaux de ruissellement et par des sources karstiques. Son niveau subit des variations très fortes, annuelles et interannuelles, sous le contrôle des conditions climatiques, et en particulier des pluies et de l'évapotranspiration. Les périodes de sécheresse qui ont marqué les trois dernières décennies, se sont traduites par un abaissement du niveau de près de 7 m. Mais les précipitations abondantes des années 2008-09 et 2009-10 ont provoqué une nette remontée. Une régression multiple d'assez bonne qualité (r = 0,87 lie la variation annuelle du niveau (d'août à août à différents paramètres (conditions climatiques et niveau initial du lac.Lake Sidi Ali is a natural lake at high altitude (2070-2080 m, without surface outlet, determined by the dam of a basalt flow. With an apparent catchment of 15.6 km2, it is fed by runoff and karst springs. Its level shows strong annual and interannual variations, depending on weather conditions, particularly rainfall and evapotranspiration. Droughts that have marked the last three decades have resulted in a lowering of about 7 m of the water level. But heavy rainfall that occurred in 2008-09 and 2009-10 caused a marked rise. A multiple regression of sufficient quality (r = 0.87 binds the annual change (from august to august at differents parameters (weather conditions and initial level of the lake.

  9. Evaluation économique des impacts du changement climatique pour la forêt et le secteur bois en France. Revue de littérature

    OpenAIRE

    Lecocq, Franck

    2008-01-01

    De nombreux travaux étudient les impacts physiques du changement climatique sur les forêts, en France et à l’étranger. En revanche, il existe très peu d’études sur les impacts économiques du changement climatique sur l’économie de la forêt et de la filière bois. La présente note reprend pour l’essentiel (souvent in extenso) les résultats relatifs aux impacts du changement climatique sur les écosystèmes forestiers du quatrième rapport d’évaluation du GIEC (Alcamo et al., 2007, Fischlin et al.,...

  10. Aérosols atmosphériques propriétés et impacts climatiques

    CERN Document Server

    Boucher, Olivier

    2012-01-01

    L’hypothèse d’une cause anthropique au réchauffement climatique est désormais considérée comme valide par la très grande majorité de la communauté scientifique. Les gaz à effet de serre ne sont toutefois pas les seuls facteurs de modification du climat. Le rôle des aérosols doit aussi être souligné : il est admis que ces derniers ont partiellement masqué le pouvoir réchauffant des gaz à effet de serre depuis le début de l’ère industrielle. Ils interagissent en outre fortement avec le cycle de l’eau et un certain nombre de cycles biogéochimiques. C’est l’ensemble de ces interactions – entre aérosols, rayonnement, cycle hydrologique, etc. – que ce livre propose de passer en revue. Après avoir décrit les principales propriétés physiques et chimiques des aérosols, le livre expose les principes de modélisation des aérosols à grande échelle ; il décrit ensuite la théorie du transfert radiatif dans l’atmosphère, les techniques de télédétection et d’observati...

  11. Gestion Technique Centralisée en Génie Climatique

    CERN Document Server

    Pepinster, P

    1999-01-01

    Il y a une quinzaine d'années, la Division ST a introduit sur les équipements de chauffage et de climatisation du CERN, des systèmes de contrôle locaux à microprocesseur en lieu et place des chaînes de régulation devenues obsolètes. Adoptée dans une volonté d'évolution technologique et dans une démarche de rationalisation des dépenses d'énergie, cette technique s'est répandue sur les différents sites du Laboratoire au fil des années. Depuis les applications de confort climatique dans les bâtiments tertiaires, jusqu'au conditionnement d'air des accélérateurs et des expériences, en passant par l'autocontrôle des chaufferies centrales, ces 'Unités de Traitement Locales' (UTL) sont aujourd'hui interconnectées en un système de Gestion Technique Centralisée d'environ 140 sous-stations. L'objet du document est de présenter la structure actuelle de ce système GTC, d'en montrer les possibilités et l'intérêt dans son exploitation quotidienne au CERN, et d'aborder ses évolutions futures.

  12. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  13. Caractérisation agro-climatique du périmètre sucrier de Ferké 2 au ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SARAH

    31 août 2017 ... Konan et al., J. Appl. Biosci. 2017 Caractérisation agro-climatique du périmètre sucrier de Ferké 2 au Nord de ... ressortir l'évolution de la pluviométrie et d'en dégager la tendance climatique pour une série pluviométrique donnée ..... réchauffement anormal des TSO de l'Atlantique sud- ouest alors que les ...

  14. Modelisation microstructurale en fatigue/fluage a froid des alliages de titane quasi alpha par le modele des automates cellulaires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutana, Mohammed Nabil

    Les proprietes d'emploi des alliages de titane sont extremement dependantes a certains aspects des microstructures developpees lors de leur elaboration. Ces microstructures peuvent etre fortement heterogenes du point de vue de leur orientation cristallographique et de leur repartition spatiale. Leurs influences sur le comportement du materiau et son endommagement precoce sont des questions qui sont actuellement soulevees. Dans le present projet de doctorat on chercher a repondre a cette question mais aussi de presenter des solutions tangibles quant a l'utilisation securitaire de ces alliages. Un nouveau modele appele automate cellulaire a ete developpe pour simuler le comportement mecanique des alliages de titane en fatigue-fluage a froid. Ces modeles ont permet de mieux comprendre la correlation entre la microstructure et le comportement mecanique du materiau et surtout une analyse detaillee du comportement local du materiau. Mots-cles: Automate cellulaire, fatigue/fluage, alliage de titane, inclusion d'Eshelby, modelisation

  15. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  16. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...

  17. Vulnérabilité et adaptation aux phénomènes climatiques extrêmes ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Le projet a pour objectif général d'enrichir la compréhension que l'on a de la vulnérabilité des collectivités agricoles rurales aux modifications de la variabilité du climat et aux phénomènes climatiques extrêmes et d'inciter les gouvernements à accroître la capacité d'adaptation. Les objectifs spécifiques sont les suivants.

  18. Mars base buildup scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  19. Changement climatique et atrophie des masses glaciaires : quelles mutations pour les paysages islandais ?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Chenet

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Le Changement climatique global observé depuis la fin du Petit Age glaciaire en Islande entraîne un retrait généralisé des fronts glaciaires. Ce retrait engendre de nouvelles dynamiques sur les surfaces déglacées, liées à la libération d’eau de fonte et à la détente postglaciaire. La datation par la lichénométrie des arcs morainiques et des terrasses fluviatiles permettent de reconstruire l’évolution des marges proglaciaires du Morsárjökull et du Skaftafellsjökull (sud-est de l’Islande depuis la fin du Petit Âge glaciaire. Les versants sont le théâtre d’importants processus d’éboulisation et de chutes de blocs, tandis que l’on observe des phénomènes d’incision et de diminution du tressage au niveau des cours d’eau.The Global Warming which occurs since the end of the Little Ice Age in Iceland leads to the retreat of the glacier fronts. This retreat has induced new dynamics in the glacier foreland, especially related to glacial meltwater and post-glacial release. Lichenometrics measures on moraines ridges and paleosandurs provide us the opportunity to reconstruct the evolution of the proglacial areas of the Morsárjökull and the Skaftafellsjökull (South-east Iceland since the end of the Little Ice Age. Important processes of rockslides and rockfalls occur on slopes, whereas proglacial rivers undergo phenomena of incision and abandon of minor channels.

  20. Adsorption de gaz sur les materiaux microporeux modelisation, thermodynamique et applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, Marc-Andre

    2009-12-01

    Nos travaux sur l'adsorption de gaz dans les materiaux microporeux s'inscrivent dans le cadre des recherches visant a augmenter l'efficacite du stockage de l'hydrogene a bord des vehicules. Notre objectif etait d'etudier la possibilite d'utiliser l'adsorption afin d'ameliorer l'efficacite de la liquefaction de l'hydrogene des systemes a petite echelle. Nous avons egalement evalue les performances d'un systeme de stockage cryogenique de l'hydrogene base sur la physisorption. Comme nous avons affaire a des plages de temperatures particulierement etendues et a de hautes pressions dans la region supercritique du gaz, nous avons du commencer par travailler sur la modelisation et la thermodynamique de l'adsorption. La representation de la quantite de gaz adsorbee en fonction de la temperature et de la pression par un modele semi-empirique est un outil utile pour determiner la masse de gaz adsorbee dans un systeme mais egalement pour calculer les effets thermiques lies a l'adsorption. Nous avons adapte le modele Dubinin-Astakhov (D-A) pour modeliser des isothermes d'adsorption d'hydrogene, d'azote et de methane sur du charbon actif a haute pression et sur une grande plage de temperatures supercritiques en considerant un volume d'adsorption invariant. Avec cinq parametres de regression (incluant le volume d'adsorption Va), le modele que nous avons developpe permet de tres bien representer des isothermes experimentales d'adsorption d'hydrogene (de 30 a 293 K, jusqu'a 6 MPa), d'azote (de 93 a 298 K, jusqu'a 6 MPa) et de methane (de 243 a 333 K, jusqu'a 9 MPa) sur le charbon actif. Nous avons calcule l'energie interne de la phase adsorbee a partir du modele en nous servant de la thermodynamique des solutions sans negliger le volume d'adsorption. Par la suite, nous avons presente les equations de conservation de la niasse et de l'energie pour un systeme d'adsorption et valide notre demarche en comparant des simulations et des tests d'adsorption et de desorption. En plus de l

  1. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  2. BCube Ocean Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoro, Mattia; Schofield, Oscar; Pearlman, Jay; Nativi, Stefano

    2015-04-01

    To address complex Earth system issues such as climate change and water resources, geoscientists must work across disciplinary boundaries; this requires them to access data outside of their fields. Scientists are being called upon to find, access, and use diverse and voluminous data types that are described with semantics. Within the framework of the NSF EarthCube programme, the BCube project (A Broker Framework for Next Generation Geoscience) is addressing the need for effective and efficient multi-disciplinary collaboration and interoperability through the advancement of brokering technologies. BCube develops science scenarios as key elements in providing an environment for demonstrating capabilities, benefits, and challenges of the developed e-infrastructure. The initial focus is on hydrology, oceans, polar and weather, with the intent to make the technology applicable and available to all the geosciences. This presentation focuses on the BCube ocean scenario. The purpose of this scenario is to increase the understanding of the ocean dynamics through incorporation of a wide range of in-situ and satellite data into ocean models using net primary productivity as the initial variable. The science scenario aims to identify spatial and temporal domains in ocean models, and key ecological variables. Field data sets and remote observations data sets from distributed and heterogeneous systems are accessed through the broker and will be incorporated into the models. In this work we will present the achievements in the development of the BCube ocean scenario.

  3. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  4. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  5. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA. Health Doctor / Hospital Infant expenditure 1000 beds / 1000 mortality / % GDP 1000. India 0.8 0.47 0.8 71. World 2.6 1.5 3.3 54. Developed 6.1 2.8 7.2 6 Countries.

  6. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway...

  7. Brane world scenarios

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    February 2003 physics pp. 183–188. Brane world scenarios. DILEEP P JATKAR. Harish-Chandra Research Institute, Chhatnag Road, Jhusi, Allahabad 211 019, India. Email: dileep@mri.ernet.in. Abstract. .... However, we have to tuneV0 = V1 =24M3k and this is like fine tuning. There are a couple of caveats in the RS model ...

  8. Modelisation de la diffusion sur les surfaces metalliques: De l'adatome aux processus de croissance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boisvert, Ghyslain

    Cette these est consacree a l'etude des processus de diffusion en surface dans le but ultime de comprendre, et de modeliser, la croissance d'une couche mince. L'importance de bien mai triser la croissance est primordiale compte tenu de son role dans la miniaturisation des circuits electroniques. Nous etudions ici les surface des metaux nobles et de ceux de la fin de la serie de transition. Dans un premier temps, nous nous interessons a la diffusion d'un simple adatome sur une surface metallique. Nous avons, entre autres, mis en evidence l'apparition d'une correlation entre evenements successifs lorsque la temperature est comparable a la barriere de diffusion, i.e., la diffusion ne peut pas etre associee a une marche aleatoire. Nous proposons un modele phenomenologique simple qui reproduit bien les resultats des simulations. Ces calculs nous ont aussi permis de montrer que la diffusion obeit a la loi de Meyer-Neldel. Cette loi stipule que, pour un processus active, le prefacteur augmente exponentiellement avec la barriere. En plus, ce travail permet de clarifier l'origine physique de cette loi. En comparant les resultats dynamiques aux resultats statiques, on se rend compte que la barriere extraite des calculs dynamiques est essentiellement la meme que celle obtenue par une approche statique, beaucoup plus simple. On peut donc obtenir cette barriere a l'aide de methodes plus precises, i.e., ab initio, comme la theorie de la fonctionnelle de la densite, qui sont aussi malheureusement beaucoup plus lourdes. C'est ce que nous avons fait pour plusieurs systemes metalliques. Nos resultats avec cette derniere approche se comparent tres bien aux resultats experimentaux. Nous nous sommes attardes plus longuement a la surface (111) du platine. Cette surface regorge de particularites interessantes, comme la forme d'equilibre non-hexagonale des i lots et deux sites d'adsorption differents pour l'adatome. De plus, des calculs ab initio precedents n'ont pas reussi a confirmer la

  9. Les hêtraies du Châtillonnais (Côte-d’Or face au changement climatique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waltraud Wimmer

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available L'étude traite des hêtraies du Châtillonnais (Côte-d'Or, Bourgogne face au changement climatique observé. Les données regroupent les séries bourguignonnes de température et de précipitation des stations de Météo France (1989-2009, la carte des hêtraies de l'Institut forestier national (IFN, un modèle numérique de terrain (MNT, SRTM et quatre indices de vulnérabilité du hêtre identifiés dans la littérature. La méthode repose sur une interpolation fine (mailles de 100 m de ces indices par régression-krigeage. Les résultats permettent de cartographier les risques actuels.

  10. Deux ouvrages sur le réchauffement climatique. : Emmanuel LE ROYLADURIE, Daniel ROUSSEAU et Anouchka VASAK (2011) : Les fluctuations du climat de l'an mil à aujourd'hui, Éditions FAYARD, Paris, 321 p. – Jean-Claude FLAGEOLLET (2010) : Le réchauffement climatique en Europe. Depuis quand ? Pourquoi ? Éditions DE BOECK, Bruxelles, 140 p.

    OpenAIRE

    BALLAIS, Jean-Louis

    2012-01-01

    International audience; Compte rendu de deux ouvrages :E. Le Roy Ladurie, D. Rousseau, A. Vasak (2011) : Les fluctuations du climat de l'an mil à aujourd'hui,J.-C. Flageollet (2010) : Le réchauffement climatique en Europe. Depuis quand ? Pourquoi ?

  11. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  12. Contraintes climatiques dans les Préalpes françaises : évolution récente et conséquences potentielles futures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Rome

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Le climat des Alpes françaises reste encore mal décrit, et sa variabilité interannuelle est difficile à étudier du fait des spécificités topoclimatiques locales et du manque de séries climatiques longues. Les conséquences régionales du changement de certaines contraintes climatiques sur plusieurs secteurs d’activité sont pourtant redoutées. Cet article propose donc un diagnostic des variations climatiques contemporaines (1959-2009 à l’échelle des Préalpes du Nord (Vercors et Chartreuse en utilisant des chroniques stationnelles pluviothermiques. Les changements observés sont ensuite mis en relation avec des impacts connus ou potentiels sur les activités socio-économiques régionales.The climate of the French Alps remains poorly described, and its interannual variability is difficult to study because of the wide variety of local topoclimatic characteristics and the lack of available long-term time-series. Regional consequences by certain climatic threat on various economic activities are nevertheless expected. This article thus proposes a diagnosis of the contemporary climatic variations (1959-2009 on the scale of French northern Prealps (Vercors and Chartreuse by using the time series of 4 reference stations. Observed changes are then related to known or potential impacts on the regional socioeconomic activities.

  13. LHC Upgrade Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Koutchouk, J P

    2010-01-01

    An LHC high-luminosity upgrade has been studied by various European and international collaborations since about 2001. Ingredients of such an LHC upgrade include the optimization of the interaction-region (IR) layout, new high-field or large-aperture triplet quadrupoles, chromatic correction, possibly detector-integrated slim magnets, crab cavities, beam-beam compensators, operation in a regime of large Piwinski angle, luminosity levelling for reduced detector pile up, heat-load, background, radiation damage due to the collision debris, and a renovation of the injector complex. Scenarios, decision paths, and present R&D efforts will be presented.

  14. LHC Injection Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Schmidt, R

    2002-01-01

    Injection of nominal beam intensities from the SPS into the LHC must be done under well-controlled conditions since an abnormal state of one or more elements in the LHC could lead to severe damage of LHC machine components. This note proposes some general principles to be applied for injection into the LHC. Firstly, only low intensity beams below damage threshold can be injected into an empty machine. Secondly, high intensity beams can only be injected when some beam is already present in the machine. Procedures for injection and failure scenarios are discussed.

  15. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosa, IMD

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature...

  16. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  17. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

  18. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  19. Scenario development methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eng, T. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Hudson, J. [Rock Engineering Consultants, Welwyn Garden City, Herts (United Kingdom); Stephansson, O. [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Div. of Engineering Geology; Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M. [Kemakta, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are (a) Event tree analysis, (b) Influence diagrams and (c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs.

  20. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...

  1. Modification des conditions de maturation du raisin en Bourgogne viticole liée au réchauffement climatique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malika Madelin

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Les répercussions du changement climatique, en particulier celles qui sont liées à l’augmentation des températures, s’observent dans de nombreux vignobles dans le monde. En Bourgogne, depuis 20 ans, cette évolution thermique modifie les conditions de la maturation, moment-clef pour la typicité du vin et sa signature terroir-millésime. Après une étude de l’évolution des températures en Bourgogne montrant en particulier une rupture en 1987-1988, une analyse comparée des conséquences phénologiques, à partir des données thermiques et des dates des stades de développement, est proposée pour deux sites côte-d’oriens en Côte et en Hautes-Côtes de Beaune (Savigny-lès-Beaune et La Rochepot. Les résultats montrent un transfert latitudinal et altitudinal des températures et des indices viticoles sur 20-30 ans, ainsi qu’un « double effet » du réchauffement climatique lors de la maturation, lié à l’augmentation des températures et au décalage temporel de cette période, qui se place de plus en plus souvent en août.Impacts of climate change such as those related to global warming, are observed in many vineyards in France and as in other vineyards in the world. In Burgundy, since 20 years, this evolution of the temperatures changes the maturation conditions, key time for "typicité" and signature of "terroir-millésime". After a study of the changes in Burgundy temperatures (which shows a thermal rupture in 1987-1988, a comparative analysis of the phenologic consequences is performed using thermal data and development dates for two vineyard sites in Côte and Hautes-Côtes de Beaune (Savigny-lès-Beaune et La Rochepot. The results show a latitudinal and vertical transfer of the temperatures and vine’s indexes over a 20-30 year period as well as a double effect of climate warming in the maturation stage attributed to the increase in temperatures and the time shift of this period (which occurs most often in August.

  2. Températures et indices bioclimatiques dans le vignoble du Val de Loire dans un contexte de changement climatique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hervé Quenol

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available La variabilité spatiale et temporelle du climat à l’échelle régionale peut parfois être marquée. Les différences spatiales observées peuvent être dues à la proximité ou non d’un océan, à la topographie, l’altitude, ou bien encore à la position latitudinale des stations. Le Val de Loire, l’une des grandes régions viticoles françaises, du fait de son orientation est-ouest, connaît des nuances climatiques assez marquées avec une influence océanique à l’ouest, liée à la proximité de l’Océan Atlantique, qui s’atténue en allant vers l’est où le climat est marqué par des caractéristiques plus continentales. De ce fait, différentes caractéristiques climatiques viticoles sont observées dans la vallée de Loire. Depuis le milieu du XXe siècle, un réchauffement généralisé est observé à partir de toutes les stations Météo - France. Ce réchauffement est plus sensible depuis la fin des années 80. Cette augmentation de température se répercute logiquement sur les indices bioclimatiques viticoles.Spatial and temporal climate variability at regional scale can sometimes be important. Spatial observed differences can be explained by the nearness or not of ocean, topography, elevation or latitude… Important climatic nuances are observed in the Loire Valley, one of the big French wine-producing areas, because of its East-West orientation. The oceanic influences close to the coast are gradually deteriorated to the East with more continental influences. As a result various climatic characteristics are observed in the Loire Valley vineyards. Since the middle of the 20th century, a regional warming has been noticed. This warming has been more significant since the end of the 80’s. This increase of temperature is reflected in the bioclimatic indices.

  3. White book Escrime. Climatic simulation studies; Livre blanc Escrime. Etude des simulations climatiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terray, L. [CERFACS, 31 - Toulouse (France); Braconnot, P. [Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace IPSL/LSCE, CEA-Orme des Merisiers, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2007-01-15

    The ESCRIME project aims to manage the analysis realized on the climatic simulations on the framework of the fourth report of the GIEC (group of intergovernmental experts on the climate evolution), in particularly the simulations based on french models. This white book is constituted by 8 chapters: the global scenario, the climatic sensibility, the variation modes, the regionalization and the extremes, the hydrological cycle, the polar regions and the cryo-sphere, the carbon cycle, detection and attributions. (A.L.B.)

  4. The changing nutrition scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  5. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  6. Helga-Jane Scarwell et Isabelle Roussel (dir., 2010, Le changement climatique : Quand le climat nous pousse à changer d’ère, Presses Universitaire du Septentrion, Lille, 358 pages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurence Rocher

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available L’ouvrage « Le changement climatique. Quand le climat nous pousse à changer d’ère », édité par les Presses Universitaire du Septentrion dans la collection Environnement et société, coordonné par Helga-Jane Scarwell et Isabelle Roussel, rassemble autour de la question du changement climatique plusieurs contributions de chercheurs en géographie, pour la plupart membres du laboratoire TVES de Lille. Ce livre apporte un éclairage original et intéressant, alliant des études de cas comportant un fo...

  7. Flannery Tim, 2007, Les faiseurs de pluie. Comprendre et préserver l'équilibre climatique, Points, Paris, Le Seuil, (édition originale 2005, traduction en français 2006.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Zaccaï

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available On constate actuellement une tendance à la prééminence des questions climatiques sur toutes les questions environnementales ou de développement durable. Les changements climatiques induits par l'Homme mobilisent le même type de vocabulaire que naguère la protection de la planète: menace globale, urgence, catastrophe, modification profonde des modes de vie à adopter. Une série de problèmes environnementaux concernant le futur, comme la disponibilité en eau, l'érosion de la biodiversité, des ri...

  8. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Scenarios provide useful insight into the complex factors that drive ecosystem change, estimating the magnitude of regional...

  9. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many......) instances of a scenario. The tool is based on control flow analysis of the process calculus LySa and is applied to the Bauer, Berson, and Feiertag protocol where is reveals a previously undocumented problem, which occurs in some scenarios but not in other....

  10. Changement climatique et développement des territoires de montagne : quelles connaissances pour quelles pistes d’action ?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Didier Richard

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Le changement climatique est aujourd’hui une réalité au niveau international comme à celui des territoires locaux. Les travaux récents mettent préférentiellement l’accent sur l’analyse des conséquences du changement climatique. Cet article se propose de questionner et de qualifier l’impact du changement climatique dans les territoires montagnards des Alpes. Un premier axe de réflexion concerne l’évolution de la dangerosité de la montagne. Une montagne plus dangereuse se profile-t-elle ? Selon quels types de risques et avec quelles intensités ? Cependant, l’approche des risques naturels et de leur dynamique face au changement climatique ne saurait occulter le type d’activités économiques et les modes d’aménagements déjà existants de ces territoires. En ce domaine, l’économie touristique est prédominante en montagne. Sa pérennité comme sa vitalité constituent à l’évidence une priorité pour les acteurs territoriaux. Ces derniers ont mis en place des stratégies d’adaptation face au changement climatique. Pour mettre en place des approches intégrées face au changement climatique, les relations croisées entre risques naturels et modes d’aménagement des territoires montagnards appellent à encourager des lectures en termes de vulnérabilité territoriale.Climate change is today a reality at both the international and more local levels. Recent studies have focussed mainly on analysing the consequences of climate change. The present article seeks to examine and qualify the impact of climate change in the mountain areas of the Alps. A first line of enquiry concerns the changing level of danger in the mountain environment. Are mountain areas becoming more dangerous and, if so, in terms of what types of risks and to what degree? However, adopting an approach based on an analysis of natural hazards and their dynamics in response to climate change cannot ignore the economic activities and types of

  11. Introducing land-cover and land-use changes in a climate scenario of the 21. century; Prise en compte des changements de vegetation dans un scenario climatique du 21. siecle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voldoire, A

    2005-03-15

    The main objective of this work has been to run a climate simulation of the 21. century that includes not only greenhouse gases and aerosols emitted by human activity but also land-use and land-cover changes. To achieve this goal, the integrated impact model IMAGE2.2 (developed at RIVM, The Netherlands) was used, which simulates the evolution of greenhouse gases concentrations as well as land-cover changes. This model has been coupled to the general circulation model ARPEGE/OPA provided by the CNRM. Before coupling the models, sensitivity experiments with each model have been performed to test their respective sensitivity to the forcing of the other. Ultimately, a simulation with the two models coupled together has shown that interactions between climate and vegetation are not of primary importance for century scale studies. (author)

  12. Sécurité alimentaire et changement climatique : une lecture géopolitique des crises africaines et de leurs conséquences

    OpenAIRE

    Janin, Pierre

    2010-01-01

    National audience; La crise alimentaire de 2008 a profondément modifié la manière dont on perçoit les risques (plus systémiques, plus globaux, moins territorialisés). Elle a également renouvelé les enjeux et les controverses autour de la production agricole et des transferts géographiques comme économiques. Parallèlement, la multiplication des déclarations expertes sur le changement climatique interpelle fortement les sociétés et les gouvernants. Pour autant, le lien entre changement climatiq...

  13. Impact des changements climatiques sur la principale réserve en eau souterraine alimentant la ville de Liège (Belgique)

    OpenAIRE

    Goderniaux, Pascal; Orban, Philippe; Compère, Jean-michel; Dassargues, Alain

    2015-01-01

    Le changement climatique amène de nouvelles 'pressions' sur les ressources en eaux de surface et souterraines dans de nombreuses zones du monde. Des travaux scientifiques sont nécessaires pour aider les gestionnaires de l'eau à planifier les changements futurs. Un générateur de climats transitoire sophistiqué est utilisé en combinaison avec une modélisation intégrée hydrologique (HydroGeoSphere) pour évaluer les impacts sur les ressources en eaux souterraines de façon probabiliste. Cette ...

  14. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
    with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  15. Modelisation de l'etape de chauffage infrarouge des biocomposites de type PET-Chanvre en thermoformage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamani, Ibrahime

    Dans le contexte du developpement durable, les biocomposites constitues de polymeres renforces de fibres vegetales representent pour plusieurs laboratoires, la nouvelle generation de materiaux a application specifique. L'association des fibres cellulosiques (non abrasives, resistantes, legeres, structurees) avec les materiaux classiques (metaux, plastiques, fibres synthetiques, betons, etc.) permet, generalement, la reduction du cout de fabrication de produits avec moins d'impact environnemental. Dans le domaine du thermoformage, l'utilisation des biocomposites, a matrice thermoplastique avec renforts vegetaux, n'a pas ete suffisamment etudiee. Pour ce procede, la mise en forme de ces materiaux s'effectue principalement en deux etapes : i) chauffage infrarouge (IR) dans un four et, ensuite, ii) mise en forme du produit desire a l'aide d'un moule de geometrie donnee. La qualite du produit moule depend largement de la repartition de la temperature dans la preforme lors du chauffage. Afin d'elucider la reponse thermique aux radiations infrarouges des preformes composites minces, a base d'une matrice thermoplastique semi-transparente (polyethylene terephtalate, PET) renforcee de fibres de chanvres, nous avons developpe une approche hybride. Elle est basee sur le couplage de la methode des elements finis (MEF), non lineaire en 3D (pour l'equation de conservation de l'energie), et la methode des ordonnees discrete 1D (MOD) (pour l'equation de transfert radiatif). Cette approche presente l'avantage de pouvoir s'adapter au procede dans toute sa complexite. Dans un premier temps, nous avons confronte nos resultats numeriques avec les donnees experimentales dans le cas du PET vierge. Ensuite, nous avons etudie numeriquement l'etape de chauffage infrarouge pour le thermoformage de trois types de plaque mince en biocomposites (PET-Chanvre). Les resultats obtenus par la modelisation hybride montrent une bonne concordance avec les resultats analytiques et les observations

  16. Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for crop management system scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ is a high-end computer interface that simulates daily fertilizer application information for any gridded domain. It integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model and CMAQ.

  17. Requirements for Scenarios and Prototypes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kravcik, Milos; De Lange, Peter; Koren, Istvan; Klamma, Ralf; Helin, Kaj; Kuula, Timo; Rasool, Jazz; Smith, Carl; Zics, Brigitta; Klemke, Roland

    2017-01-01

    In WP1 the WEKIT consortium develops a framework for wearable experience, specifies a corresponding methodology for vocational training, creates suitable application scenarios, and derives requirements for the technological platform accordingly. The first findings are documented in the

  18. Scenarios and activities (Chapter 1)

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Burns, Mike

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The description and quantification of the shale gas-related activities presented in this Chapter informs the assessment of ecological and social risk addressed in other Chapters. For the Exploration Only scenario, activities that will manifest...

  19. Earthquake Hazards Program: Earthquake Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A scenario represents one realization of a potential future earthquake by assuming a particular magnitude, location, and fault-rupture geometry and estimating...

  20. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information; this incl......; this includes available statistical information and a short survey of emerging technologies. A scenario for Denmark is presented and consequences are discussed....

  1. Analyse rétrospective de l'évolution climatique récente en Afrique du Nord-Ouest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Didier Soto

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available La présente étude vise à évaluer et à comprendre les tendances climatiques récentes et les ruptures de stationnarité au Maroc, en Mauritanie, au Sénégal et sur le proche océan. Pour cela est entreprise une analyse statistique de l'évolution annuelle des températures de l'air, des pressions atmosphériques au niveau de la mer, des précipitations et de la dynamique éolienne.Les analyses confirment le tournant climatique des années 1970-1980. Ainsi les températures varient-elles localement, avec un réchauffement sensible au-dessus de l'Océan Atlantique entre 40°N et 14°N, au Maroc et au Sénégal (région du Nord, alors que le Sud-Est de la Mauritanie se refroidit. De même, le renforcement de la pression atmosphérique est accompagné d'un renversement de l'harmattan, avec une augmentation de la fréquence de sa composante orientale.L'éclairage apporté par les données paléoclimatiques ne permet pas de déterminer une analogie uniforme avec les deux derniers extrêmes climatiques connus (optimum climatique holocène et dernier maximum glaciaire. Le réchauffement littoral et continental, de même que le renforcement de la composante franchement orientale de l'harmattan, rappellent les caractéristiques de la circulation atmosphérique du début de l'Holocène. Cependant l'augmentation des précipitations au cours des dernières années est moins significative. Par ailleurs, le renforcement de la pression atmosphérique suggère, d'un côté, le renforcement de l'agglutination anticyclonique continentale et, d'un autre, un affaiblissement de la dépression saharienne pendant l'été.Le signal climatique s'avère donc complexe à saisir, dans ses dimensions spatiale et temporelle, et requiert d'étendre l'étude à d'autres variables aussi bien qu'à d'autres périodes analogues.The following study aims to evaluate and understand the recent climatic trends and significant stationary breaks in Morocco, Mauritania, Senegal and

  2. National program of struggle against the climate change; Programme national de lutte contre le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-01-17

    The French national program of struggle against the climate change deals with the principal sources of pollution i.e. industry, transports, buildings, agriculture and forests wastes, gas refrigerants and power production. The document contains 12 chapters. First chapter concerns the France's responsibilities regarding the climatic change. The following issues are addressed: 1. The phenomenon, the gas releases and the potential impact; 2. The international negotiations and the European engagements; 3. France's effort for pollutant release abatement. The second chapter describes the principal options of the program. It presents: measures, economical constraints, long term structure actions upon offer. The third and the forth chapters deal with the industrial and transport releases and relating abatement measures. Chapter number five concerns the pollutant released in the building sector, i.e. those related to the dwelling houses, the current and proposed measures for reducing the harmful releases. The issue of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrogen oxide releases and absorptions in the sector agriculture-forests is addressed in chapter 6. The contribution of these releases to the greenhouse effect amounts up to 18% (with 11, 33% and 56%, fractions from the three gas emissions, CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, respectively). Measures for release reduction are presented as well as actions to improve the knowledge of the processes. A special addendum gives estimates and the implications the storms of December 1999 had upon the national program. The waste sector contributes by 3% to the greenhouse effect while the power production sector, by 8%. The fraction of release of the three principal pollutant gases are 87%, 12% and 1%, respectively. The results of a scenario based on extant and proposed measures for release abatement are presented for the period 1990-2010. The chapter 8 devoted to the power production sector presents also the results obtained from the

  3. Ageing of palladium tritide: mechanical characterization, helium state and modelling; Vieillissement du tritiure de palladium: caracterisation mecanique, etat de l'helium et modelisation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Segard, M.

    2010-11-29

    Palladium is commonly used for the storage of tritium (the hydrogen radioactive isotope), since it forms a low-equilibrium-pressure and reversible tritide. Tritium decay into helium-3 is responsible for the ageing of the tritide, leading to the apparition of helium-3 bubbles for instance. Both experimental and theoretical aspects of this phenomenon are studied here.Previous works on ageing modelling led to two main models, dealing with:- Helium-3 bubbles nucleation (using a cellular automaton), - Bubbles growth (using continuum mechanics).These models were quite efficient, but their use was limited by the lack of input data and fitting experimental parameters.To get through these limitations, this work has consisted in studying the most relevant experimental data to improve the modelling of the palladium tritide ageing.The first part of this work was focused on the assessment of the mechanical properties of the palladium tritide (yield strength, ultimate strength, mechanical behaviour). They were deduced from the in situ tensile tests performed on palladium hydride and deuteride. In the second part, ageing characterization was undertaken, mainly focusing on: - Bubbles observations in palladium tritide using transmission electron microscopy, - Internal bubble pressure measurements using nuclear magnetic resonance, - Macroscopic swelling measurements using pycno-metry.The present work has led to significant progress in ageing understanding and has brought very valuable improvements to the modelling of such a phenomenon. (author) [French] Le palladium est couramment utilise pour le stockage du tritium, isotope radioactif de l'hydrogEne, car il forme un tritiure reversible, A basse pression d'equilibre. La decroissance du tritium en helium-3 provoque un vieillissement du tritiure, caracterise notamment par l'apparition de bulles d'helium-3, qui est etudie ici. De precedents travaux de modelisation du vieillissement avaient abouti a la creation de

  4. Changements climatiques au Maroc: quels systèmes de culture et quelles biotechnologies pour s’y adapter ?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelhadi AIT HOUSSA

    2017-09-01

    scale use of seawater in agriculture or finding new salinity tolerant cultivars. In Morocco, we should think of desalinization with renewable energies (solar, wind and the use of this water mainly in coastal areas where climate, land quality, sun and wind are adequate to these projects. To anticipate the future of food security of the country, attention should be given to the use of readily available resources to overcome the structural deficit in wheat starch and animal protein. The study suggests the use of other starch sources that Morocco can produce easily such as potato. For animal protein, we suggest fisheries resources which are still underused by the population. Résumé On présente une étude prospective concernant l’impact probable des changements climatiques sur les systèmes de culture et d’élevage au Maroc. D’après le constat de terrain et dans les limites de ce que signifie ce genre d’étude, l’effet direct du réchauffement climatique peut conduire à terme (et c’est déjà le cas dans certaines contrées à la nécessité d’une redistribution variétale pour des espèces exigeantes en froid comme les rosacées. Des variétés de pomme, telle que le groupe des Golden, risquent de disparaître des montagnes pour laisser la place à d’autres moins exigeantes comme le groupe des Gala. Le bananier et l’avocatier risquent de migrer vers les régions un peu plus continentales, l’olivier et les agrumes un peu plus vers le pied de la montagne. Le réchauffement climatique peut aussi obliger à faire évoluer les systèmes d’élevage et de culture en faisant déplacer la frontière de la sécheresse un peu plus vers le centre et le nord du pays; l’aride serait peut-être envahi par la désertification, le semi-aride passerait en partie à l’étage aride et le Bour dit favorable en partie dans le semi-aride. Comme corollaire à ce changement, il faudrait s’attendre à une perte de potentiel de ressources en eau qui obligerait

  5. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular...

  6. [Femicides: concepts, types and scenarios].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meneghel, Stela Nazareth; Portella, Ana Paula

    2017-09-01

    This text is a theoretical essay that discusses the concepts, types and scenarios of feminicides, and presents some proposals for the prevention of these premature, unjust and avoidable deaths. The text revisits the original concept of femicide proposed by Diana Russell and Jane Caputti and shows new and old scenarios where these crimes occur. It points to patriarchy, understood as being a hierarchical system of power between men and women, as one of the main determinants of these deaths. It ends by presenting actions and proposals to prevent and combat these gender crimes.

  7. Future scenarios to inspire innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Smedt, Peter; Borch, Kristian; Fuller, Ted

    2013-01-01

    . Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging, however there is lack of exploitation of novel ideas and sustainable solutions to address these grand challenges. In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack...... the grand challenges. By analyzing several scenario cases, elements of good practices and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations...

  8. Les mousses adaptatives pour l'amelioration de l'absorption acoustique: Modelisation, mise en oeuvre, mecanismes de controle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leroy, Pierre

    distortion level through the system in the low and high frequency range ( 1500Hz). The use of the numerical model, supplemented by an analytical study made it possible to clarify the action mode and the dissipation mechanisms in smart foams. The PVDF moves with the same phase and amplitude of the residual incidental pressure which is not dissipated in the foam. Viscous effect dissipation is then very weak in the low frequencies and becomes more important in the high frequencies. The wave which was not been dissipated in the porous material is transmitted by the PVDF in the back cavity. The outlooks of this study are on the one hand, the improvement of the model and the prototypes and on the other hand, the widening of the field of research to the control of the acoustic transmission and the acoustic radiation of surfaces. The model could be improved by integrating viscoelastic elements able to account for the behavior of the adhesive layer between the PVDF and foam. A modelisation of electro-elastomers materials would also have to be implemented in the code. This new type of actuator could make it possible to exceed the PVDF displacement limitations. Finally it would be interesting for the industrial integration prospects to seek configurations able to maximize acoustic absorption and to limit the transmission and the radiation of surfaces at the same time.

  9. Etude de la transmission sonore a travers un protecteur de type "coquilles" : modelisation numerique et validation experimentale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Sylvain

    methode des seuils auditifs REAT (Real Ear Attenuation Threshold) aussi vu comme un "golden standard" est utilise pour quantifier la reduction du bruit mais surestime generalement la performance des protecteurs. Les techniques de mesure terrains, telles que la F-MIRE (Field Measurement in Real Ear) peuvent etre a l'avenir de meilleurs outils pour evaluer l'attenuation individuelle. Si ces techniques existent pour des bouchons d'oreilles, elles doivent etre adaptees et ameliorees pour le cas des coquilles, en determinant l'emplacement optimal des capteurs acoustiques et les facteurs de compensation individuels qui lient la mesure microphonique a la mesure qui aurait ete prise au tympan. La troisieme problematique specifique est l'optimisation de l'attenuation des coquilles pour les adapter a l'individu et a son environnement de travail. En effet, le design des coquilles est generalement base sur des concepts empiriques et des methodes essais/erreurs sur des prototypes. La piste des outils predictifs a ete tres peu etudiee jusqu'a present et meriterait d'etre approfondie. L'utilisation du prototypage virtuel, permettrait a la fois d'optimiser le design avant production, d'accelerer la phase de developpement produit et d'en reduire les couts. L'objectif general de cette these est de repondre a ces differentes problematiques par le developpement d'un modele de l'attenuation sonore d'un protecteur auditif de type coquille. A cause de la complexite de la geometrie de ces protecteurs, la methode principale de modelisation retenue a priori est la methode des elements finis (FEM). Pour atteindre cet objectif general, trois objectifs specifiques ont ete etablis et sont presentes dans les trois paragraphes suivants. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

  10. The USGS Earthquake Scenario Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wald, D. J.; Petersen, M. D.; Wald, L. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Lin, K.; Luco, N.; Mathias, S.; Bausch, D.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) is producing a comprehensive suite of earthquake scenarios for planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and scientific investigations. The Earthquake Scenario Project (ESP), though lacking clairvoyance, is a forward-looking project, estimating earthquake hazard and loss outcomes as they may occur one day. For each scenario event, fundamental input includes i) the magnitude and specified fault mechanism and dimensions, ii) regional Vs30 shear velocity values for site amplification, and iii) event metadata. A grid of standard ShakeMap ground motion parameters (PGA, PGV, and three spectral response periods) is then produced using the well-defined, regionally-specific approach developed by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NHSMP), including recent advances in empirical ground motion predictions (e.g., the NGA relations). The framework also allows for numerical (3D) ground motion computations for specific, detailed scenario analyses. Unlike NSHMP ground motions, for ESP scenarios, local rock and soil site conditions and commensurate shaking amplifications are applied based on detailed Vs30 maps where available or based on topographic slope as a proxy. The scenario event set is comprised primarily by selection from the NSHMP events, though custom events are also allowed based on coordination of the ESP team with regional coordinators, seismic hazard experts, seismic network operators, and response coordinators. The event set will be harmonized with existing and future scenario earthquake events produced regionally or by other researchers. The event list includes approximate 200 earthquakes in CA, 100 in NV, dozens in each of NM, UT, WY, and a smaller number in other regions. Systematic output will include all standard ShakeMap products, including HAZUS input, GIS, KML, and XML files used for visualization, loss estimation, ShakeCast, PAGER, and for other systems. All products will be

  11. European oil product supply modelling; Modelisation de l`offre de produits petroliers en Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saint-Antonin, V

    1998-12-11

    Over the last few years, trends in European oil product consumption (in terms of level as structure and quality) has important implications of the refining industry. In this context, the purpose of this thesis consists in building a mathematical programming model applied to the European refineries in order to determine oil product supply prices, European refining industry investments and oil product exchanges of the European Union. The first part presents the reason for our choice for a long-term aggregate multi-refineries linear programming model, based on European refineries characteristics and the objectives of our model. Its dual properties are studied in detail and we focus particularly on the European exchange modelling. In the second part, an analysis of the European refining trends leads us to identify parameters and variables of the model that are essential to the aggregate representation of the European oil product supply. The third part is devoted to the use of this model, regarding two scenarios of increasingly stringent specifications for gasoline and diesel oil. Our interest for these products is due to their important share of the European oil product consumption and the not insignificant responsibility of the transport sector for atmospheric pollution. Finally, in order to have the use of an overall picture of the European refining industry, we build a regression model summarizing, though a few equations, the main relations between the major endogenous and exogenous variables o the LP model. Based on pseudo-data, this kind of model provides a simple and robust representation of the oil product supply. But a more specialized analysis of the refining industry operations, turning on a technical assessment of processing units, is reliant on the use of an optimization model such as the model we have built. (author) 102 refs.

  12. Rapid scenarios and observed intensities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Pettenati

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available After a destructive earthquake, national Governments need to know the approximate amount of damage, the number of casualties, and the financial losses as soon as possible. Rapid scenarios are also used to inform the general public; see the widely used Shakemap package [Wald et al. 1999, 2006] of the US Geological Survey (USGS and the one modified by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV; National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, which is reproduced for Figure 1. The general matter of the use of intensities in damage scenarios was discussed in a special session at the 2008 Annual Meeting of the Seismological Society of America (http://www.seismosoc.org/meetings/2008/specialsessions.html, and was also discussed in the NIS-1 session of the European Congress in Moscow, in August 2012 (http://www.esc2012-moscow.org/esc_thematicareas.html. The purposes of the present report are to: (i compare different types of intensities; (ii check two rapid scenarios of intensity; and (iii understand whether the KF formula [Sirovich 1996, Sirovich et al. 2009] can be used as a new 'attenuation' relationship to improve rapid scenarios. […

  13. Organizational scenarios for the use of learning objects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermans, Henry; De Vries, Fred

    2006-01-01

    Organizational scenarios presents the following three scenarios for working with learning objects in Dutch higher education and institutions: Scenario 1: Self-regulation (community scenario) Scenario 2: Institutional regulation Scenario 3: Network organization This document is aimed at policy makers

  14. Moduli Evolution in Heterotic Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Barreiro, T; Nunes, N J

    2001-01-01

    We discuss several aspects of the cosmological evolution of moduli fields in heterotic string/M-theory scenarios. In particular we study the equations of motion of both the dilaton and overall modulus of these theories in the presence of an expanding Universe and under different assumptions. First we analyse the impact of their couplings to matter fields, which turns out to be negligible in the string and M-theory scenarios. Then we examine in detail the possibility of scaling in M-theory, i.e. how the moduli would evolve naturally to their minima instead of rolling past them in the presence of a dominating background. In this case we find interesting and positive results, and we compare them to the analogous situation in the heterotic string.

  15. The Danish Scenario Workshop Report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brodersen, Søsser; Jørgensen, Michael Søgaard

    3 June 2003 a Danish scenario workshop was conducted with the aim of discussing: How can Science Shops contribute to the development of the co-operation between citizens and universities? The Danish scenario workshop was conducted as a one-day event (starting at 8.45 am and ending at 17 pm...... with informal drinks) and planned and carried out as recommended in Ahumada (2003). We have however not developed all the material recommended by Ahumada (2003) as informative material prior to the workshop, (e.g. a SWOT analysis) due to a wish only to produce material to the participants which we found useful....... In the material we further illustrated experiences with Science Shops and similar initiatives in order for the participants to be inspired and get an understanding of which influence and effect Science Shop projects can have on the involved actors and on societal development. We began planning the workshop...

  16. Rapid scenarios and observed intensities

    OpenAIRE

    Franco Pettenati; Livio Sirovich

    2012-01-01

    After a destructive earthquake, national Governments need to know the approximate amount of damage, the number of casualties, and the financial losses as soon as possible. Rapid scenarios are also used to inform the general public; see the widely used Shakemap package [Wald et al. 1999, 2006] of the US Geological Survey (USGS) and the one modified by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV; National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology), which is reproduced for Figure 1. T...

  17. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  18. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  19. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  20. TCL2 Ocean Scenario Replay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohlenbrink, Christoph P.; Omar, Faisal Gamal; Homola, Jeffrey R.

    2017-01-01

    This is a video replay of system data that was generated from the UAS Traffic Management (UTM) Technical Capability Level (TCL) 2 flight demonstration in Nevada and rendered in Google Earth. What is depicted in the replay is a particular set of flights conducted as part of what was referred to as the Ocean scenario. The test range and surrounding area are presented followed by an overview of operational volumes. System messaging is also displayed as well as a replay of all of the five test flights as they occurred.

  1. Le changement climatique, un défi pour la recherche : l’exemple de l’initiative « 4 ‰ »

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torquebiau Emmanuel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available L’agriculture, l’activité humaine probablement la plus dépendante du climat, est à la fois victime et responsable du changement climatique mais elle peut aussi être une solution à la crise du changement climatique. C’est dans les pays en développement, particulièrement vulnérables, que les effets du changement climatique seront les plus violents. L’agriculture émet des gaz à effet de serre, mais il est possible de diminuer ces émissions par des pratiques agro écologiques favorisant l’augmentation de la matière organique du sol. Il est également possible, grâce à ces pratiques, d’augmenter la capture de carbone atmosphérique en fixant du carbone dans le sol et ainsi contribuer à l’atténuation du changement climatique, tout en améliorant les propriétés du sol, ce qui permet simultanément d’améliorer l’adaptation de l’agriculture au changement climatique. Une augmentation de la teneur en carbone de tous les sols du monde de 4 ‰ par an permettrait de compenser toutes les émissions de gaz à effet de serre d’origine anthropique. L’initiative internationale d’origine française « 4 ‰, Les Sols pour la Sécurité Alimentaire et le Climat » se donne pour objectif de mettre en œuvre des projets permettant de montrer qu’il est possible d’augmenter la teneur en carbone du sol dans ces proportions et de répondre aux questions de recherche que cela pose, notamment en matière de mesure du taux de carbone dans le sol, de pratiques agronomiques pertinentes, du contexte socio-économique favorable à cette démarche et enfin du suivi dans le temps des changements induits.

  2. The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges...... are suggested for evaluation of the quality of scenario storytelling....

  3. Improving scenario discovery by bagging random boxes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwakkel, J.H.; Cunningham, S.

    2016-01-01

    Scenario discovery is a model-based approach to scenario development under deep uncertainty. Scenario discovery relies on the use of statistical machine learning algorithms. The most frequently used algorithm is the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM). This algorithm identifies regions in an

  4. Quel futur pour les services écosystémiques de la forêt alpine dans un contexte de changement climatique ?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benoît Courbaud

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available La forêt de montagne produit de nombreux services écosystémiques qui vont être affectés par les changements climatiques. On attend une remontée des essences en altitude qui pourrait conduire à une diminution des résineux et des espèces du subalpin. Ces changements d’essences pourraient avoir un impact négatif sur la biodiversité et sur la production de bois d’œuvre. On observe cependant également une augmentation de la productivité favorable à la production de bois énergie et au moins temporairement de bois d’œuvre, ainsi qu’au stockage de carbone. Face à une augmentation possible des évènements climatiques extrêmes, les changements de végétation pourront être marqués par des épisodes de dépérissements, très négatifs pour la filière économique, la protection contre les risques naturels et la biodiversité. Le changement climatique affectera la forêt également de manière indirecte en augmentant la demande en énergie renouvelable et en stockage de carbone. Les incertitudes sur les prédictions de changements de végétation sont élevées, ce qui rend délicate la définition de stratégies d’adaptation de la gestion forestière. Une gestion de crises efficace, un accompagnement des évolutions naturelles de la forêt basé sur une interaction recherche-gestion (gestion adaptative, et la prise en compte explicite de la notion d’incertitude paraissent des éléments essentiels au maintien des services écosystémiques fournis par la forêt.Mountain forests produce a large number of ecosystem services that are going to be affected by climate change. We are expecting an increase in high altitude species that could result in the decrease in resinous and subalpine species. These changes in species could adversely affect biodiversity and timber production. However, we also observe an increase in productivity that favours the production of energy wood and, at least temporarily, timber, as well as carbon

  5. The ShakeOut Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  6. Grand unified brane world scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arai, Masato; Blaschke, Filip; Eto, Minoru; Sakai, Norisuke

    2017-12-01

    We present a field theoretical model unifying grand unified theory (GUT) and brane world scenario. As a concrete example, we consider S U (5 ) GUT in 4 +1 dimensions where our 3 +1 dimensional spacetime spontaneously arises on five domain walls. A field-dependent gauge kinetic term is used to localize massless non-Abelian gauge fields on the domain walls and to assure the charge universality of matter fields. We find the domain walls with the symmetry breaking S U (5 )→S U (3 )×S U (2 )×U (1 ) as a global minimum and all the undesirable moduli are stabilized with the mass scale of MGUT. Profiles of massless standard model particles are determined as a consequence of wall dynamics. The proton decay can be exponentially suppressed.

  7. Energy scenarios - Japan (updated 2004)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peter Scaife; Phil Brown; Aaron Cottrell; Louis Wibberley

    2005-03-15

    Since the previous report covering Asia, there have been major changes in the energy scene, with the rapid growth in energy consumption in China, which has now displaced Japan as the second largest consumer of oil in the world. This has led to concerns in energy security in oil, but also in coal, since China is rapidly moving toward becoming a net coal importer. There has also been a major increase in coal prices (both thermal and coking) since 2003, with coking coal doubling in price between 2004 and 2005, and the thermal coal price increasing by a third in the same period. Further, with the recent ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, Japan will have major challenge in achieving its commitment on greenhouse gas emissions (GGE). This report updates an earlier study of the Japanese energy scenario in light of these changes.

  8. Development scenario for laser fusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-03-30

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power.

  9. Nonlocality in sequential correlation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallego, Rodrigo; Würflinger, Lars Erik; Chaves, Rafael; Acín, Antonio; Navascués, Miguel

    2014-03-01

    As first shown by Popescu (1995 Phys. Rev. Lett. 74 2619), some quantum states only reveal their nonlocality when subjected to a sequence of measurements while giving rise to local correlations in standard Bell tests. Motivated by this manifestation of ‘hidden nonlocality’ we set out to develop a general framework for the study of nonlocality when sequences of measurements are performed. Similar to Gallego et al (2013 Phys. Rev. Lett. 109 070401) our approach is operational, i.e. the task is to identify the set of allowed operations in sequential correlation scenarios and define nonlocality as the resource that cannot be created by these operations. This leads to a characterization of sequential nonlocality that contains as particular cases standard nonlocality and hidden nonlocality.

  10. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  11. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  12. Les changements climatiques du Paléolithique Supérieur. Enquête sur le rapport entre Paléoclimatologie et Préhistoire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Fernanda SÁNCHEZ GOÑI

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: This article discusses the contribution of sedimentology, palynology and palaeontology from archaeological sequences in caves to palaeoclimatic reconstruction. The chronoclimatic framework traditionally accepted for the upper Palaeolithic is questioned. A particular attention is paid to the history of vegetation and climate during the upper Palaeolithic in western Europe. There is no evidence for temperate oscillations between 23,000 and 14,000 BP, a period in which the Gravetian, Solutrean and lower and middle Magdalenian technocomplexes developed.RÉSUMÉ: Ce travail discute de l'apport que la sédimentologie, la palynologie et l'étude de la macrofaune des séquences archéologiques en grotte offrent pour la reconstitution paléoclimatique. Le cadre chronoclimatique traditionnellement admis pour le Paléolithique supérieur est remis en question. Une attention particulière est adressée à l'histoire de la végétation et du climat contemporains du Paléolithique supérieur d'Europe occidentale. Aucune période d'amélioration climatique est détectée entre 23.000 et 14.000 ans BP, période au cours de laquelle se développent en partie les technocomplexes Gravettien, Solutréen, Magdalénien inférieur et moyen.

  13. The scenario method in urban planning

    OpenAIRE

    Stojanović Milica; Mitković Petar; Mitković Mihailo

    2014-01-01

    Scenario planning techniques are increasingly gaining attention in the process of spatial and urban planning because of their usefulness in times of uncertainty and complexity. Scenario planning encourages strategic thinking and helps to overcome thinking limitations by creating multiple futures. In this way, it can help to shape the future according to the values and desires of society. Although scenario planning has been used a lot in the business world, ...

  14. Evolutionary scenarios of Notch proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theodosiou, Athina; Arhondakis, Stilianos; Baumann, Marc; Kossida, Sophia

    2009-07-01

    Notch is a highly conserved family of transmembrane receptors and transcription factors that are key players in several developmental processes. In this study, we identified novel Notch sequences from various species covering from worm to human and conducted a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis in order to confirm and extend the evolutionary history of Notch. Our findings confirm an independent duplication event in Caenorhabditis elegans resulting in two Notch genes and show that the vertebrate Notch genes resulted from two duplication events, both of which occurred before the divergence of teleosts and tetrapoda. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the vertebrate Notch2 group is phylogenetically closer to Notch3 and that Notch2 appeared at the first round of vertebrate duplication events. Moreover, there is evidence that the two Notch1 genes in fish, appeared by a recent duplication of Notch1 in teleost after the divergence of teleost and tetrapoda. Whether this is from ancient whole genome duplication (WGD) or gene duplication remains to be elucidated. The fourth group of Notch (Notch4) was found only in mammals. We suggest two possible scenarios for the origin of the Notch4 subfamily: 1) Notch4 appeared at the time of the two WGDs in the early chordate but has been maintained only in the mammalian lineage and was lost in the other lineages, 2) a recent independent duplication event took place in the mammalian lineage. The increase of the sequencing data from Xenopus tropicalis, Gallus gallus genome projects and of other avian and reptile genomes will shed more light on this event. Nevertheless, the great divergence of Notch4, from the other three Notch genes, suggests a rapid divergence raising questions about the functional implication of this event. In addition, comparison of the organization of Notch syntenic genes among species supports the coordinated rearrangements during evolution for Ntch, PBX, and BRD families that may lead to possible functional

  15. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Valeriu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

  16. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  17. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  18. Impacts du changement climatique sur les ressources en eaux à l’échelle de la FranceApproche multi-modèle : Plate-forme Aqui-FR

    OpenAIRE

    Thiéry, Dominique

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Cette présentation comprend deux parties :La première partie présente des exemples de modélisation des impacts du changement climatique sur les ressources en eaux de surface et en eaux souterrainesLa deuxième partie présente la plateforme de modélisation hydrogéologique nationale AQUI-FR pilotée par l’UMR Metis du CNRS, avec comme partenaires : BRGM, CERFACS, Géosciences-Rennes, LHyGes Météo-France, MINES ParisTech, Onema.

  19. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.

  20. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  1. Software Architecture Reliability Analysis using Failure Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tekinerdogan, B.; Sözer, Hasan; Aksit, Mehmet

    2005-01-01

    We propose a Software Architecture Reliability Analysis (SARA) approach that benefits from both reliability engineering and scenario-based software architecture analysis to provide an early reliability analysis of the software architecture. SARA makes use of failure scenarios that are prioritized

  2. Scenario planning methodology in biomedicine sciences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iraj Nabipour

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Scenario planning is a process that stimulates imaginative, creative thinking to better prepare an organization for the future. It is also as a tool to promote innovation activities in organizations. Scenario planning may provide alternate futures in which strategies of the organization develop. Very recently, Jay Ogilvy introduced an eight steps scenario planning and strategic forecasting. According to this eight-step process, scenario planning has two major parts: first, choosing which scenario logics to flesh out, a task that comprises the first five steps, and second, telling the actual story, its implications and early indicators, which compromise the remaining steps. In order to identify opportunities and challenges faced by biomedicine sciences there are continually increasing trends for scenario planning in the field. In highly uncertain environments, as are faced in biomedicine sciences, scenario planning can provide a robust, flexible path to navigate. By evaluating the implications of societal, economic and policy impacts of these scenarios, biosciences organizations can determine how to manage a transition to regenerative medicine and personalized medicine, both of which could disrupt current healthcare systems.

  3. La modelisation mathematique dans l'enseignement de la chimie des gaz a des eleves de la cinquieme annee du secondaire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauthier, Diane

    Les problemes d'enseignement de la chimie des gaz parfaits sont donc importants. Si plusieurs etudes ont ete realisees dans le but d'identifier et d'interpreter ces problemes, aucune recherche, a notre connaissance, n'a ete realisee sur l'enseignement des lois sur les gaz parfaits. Notre recherche sur l'enseignement est donc pionniere. Elle a pour objectif general de construire et d'analyser une sequence d'enseignement de la chimie des gaz comportant diverses situations de modelisation mathematique des conduites des gaz. Les principaux objectifs specifiques sont les suivants: (1) identifier et caracteriser les situations qui provoquent une evolution des conceptions naives des eleves, evolution vers des connaissances plus adequate sur les gaz; (2) identifier et caractEriser les situations qui provoquent une evolution des connaissances mathematiques des eleves leur permettant d'interpreter convenablement les resultats des experiences, d'eprouver leurs conceptions, de donner un sens aux notions et aux relations impliquees dans les lois des gaz parfaits, lois de Boyle-Mariotte et Gay-Lussac. Une sequence d'enseignement comportant huit situations est d'eleves de secondaire V. La construction de ces situations est orientee par les recherches sur les conceptions naives des eleves, par les etudes sur l'evolution historique des conceptions sur les gaz et des pratiques scientifiques, ainsi que par les etudes theoriques et empiriques realisees en didactique des sciences et des mathematiques. La methodologie de l'ingenierie didactique (Artigue, 1998) qui constitue une application de la theorie des situations didactiques (Brousseau, 1986) est utilisee dans la construction et l'analyse des situations d'enseignement. Une analyse a priori de chacune des situations d'enseignement est effectuee; elle a pour but dexpliquer les choix des taches qui font partie des situations et de preciser la gestion didactique des situations. Diverses situations d'enseignement de la chimie ont ainsi

  4. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) Emissions Scenarios Dataset Version 1.1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) Emissions Scenarios Dataset Version 1.1 consists of 40 global and...

  5. Writing clinical scenarios for clinical science questions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Phil Em; Mucklow, John C

    2016-04-01

    Written knowledge assessments for physicians in training typically involve multiple-choice questions that use a clinical scenario in a single-best-answer format. The Royal College of Physicians Part 1 MRCP(UK) examination includes basic sciences themes that are challenging to assess through a clinical scenario. A realistic clinical setting based on everyday clinical practice and integral to the question is the clearest demonstration that the knowledge being assessed is clinically relevant. However, without special attention to detail, the scenario in a clinical science question can appear redundant or artificial. Reading unnecessary material frustrates candidates and threatens the reputation of the assessment. In this paper we discuss why a clinical scenario is important for basic science questions and offer advice on setting realistic and plausible clinical scenarios for such questions. © 2016 Royal College of Physicians.

  6. Empirical Studies in Information Visualization: Seven Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Heidi; Bertini, Enrico; Isenberg, Petra; Plaisant, Catherine; Carpendale, Sheelagh

    2012-09-01

    We take a new, scenario-based look at evaluation in information visualization. Our seven scenarios, evaluating visual data analysis and reasoning, evaluating user performance, evaluating user experience, evaluating environments and work practices, evaluating communication through visualization, evaluating visualization algorithms, and evaluating collaborative data analysis were derived through an extensive literature review of over 800 visualization publications. These scenarios distinguish different study goals and types of research questions and are illustrated through example studies. Through this broad survey and the distillation of these scenarios, we make two contributions. One, we encapsulate the current practices in the information visualization research community and, two, we provide a different approach to reaching decisions about what might be the most effective evaluation of a given information visualization. Scenarios can be used to choose appropriate research questions and goals and the provided examples can be consulted for guidance on how to design one's own study.

  7. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...... sectors. The methodologies used in two academic scenarios, IDA 2050 and CEESA, are compared. The main differences in the methodologies of IDA 2050 and CEESA are found in the estimation of future biomass potential, transport demand assessment, and a trial to examine future power grid in an electrical...

  8. Tank waste remediation system operational scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, M.E.

    1995-05-01

    The Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) mission is to store, treat, and immobilize highly radioactive Hanford waste (current and future tank waste and the strontium and cesium capsules) in an environmentally sound, safe, and cost-effective manner (DOE 1993). This operational scenario is a description of the facilities that are necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. The TWRS Program is developing technologies, conducting engineering analyses, and preparing for design and construction of facilities necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is being prepared to evaluate proposed actions of the TWRS. This operational scenario is only one of many plausible scenarios that would result from the completion of TWRS technology development, engineering analyses, design and construction activities and the TWRS EIS. This operational scenario will be updated as the development of the TWRS proceeds and will be used as a benchmark by which to evaluate alternative scenarios.

  9. BIOGÉOGRAPHIE DU SILURE GLANE (SILURUS GLANIS : CAUSES HYDROGRAPHIQUES, CLIMATIQUES ET ANTHROPIQUES. BIOGEOGRAPHY OF THE SHEATFISH (SILURUS GLANIS : HYDROGRAPHICAL, CLIMATIC AND ANTHROPIC CAUSES.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SCHLUMBERGER O.

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available La répartition actuelle du silure glane (Silurus glanis en France et en Europe résulte de la combinaison de facteurs à la fois hydrographiques, climatiques et anthropiques. Des données paléontologiques montrent que l'espèce faisait partie de l'ichtyofaune française (bassin du Rhône avant d'être éliminée par les glaciations. Le réchauffement climatique qui a suivi (10 000 av. JC et l'existence d'interconnexions entre, d'une part, des tributaires de la mer Noire et de la mer Caspienne et d'autre part ceux de la mer Baltique et de la mer du Nord lui ont permis de rapidement coloniser le Nord de l'Europe occidentale. Deux périodes de transplantations-introductions de l'espèce, à but économique, sont identifiées. Une première vague d'introductions hors du bassin danubien semble avoir eu lieu dès le Moyen-Age (lacs de Suisse, suivie par une deuxième période débutant vers 1800, et se poursuivant actuellement. Les effets combinés de ces introductions et des dégradations du milieu d'origine anthropique ont induit un décalage de l'aire de distribution vers le Sud et le Sud-Est de l'Europe (Italie, Espagne, tandis que ne subsistent en Suède, Carélie, Russie et Estonie que des populations relictuelles. Les résultats présentés ici, pourraient aussi concerner d'autres espèces de poissons (Percidés, Cyprinidés, qui, après avoir bénéficié pendant les glaciations des refuges constitués par les bassins de la mer Noire et de la mer Caspienne, ont pu (re- colonisé l'Europe continentale, de manière « naturelle » et avec l'aide de l'Homme. The biogeography of the sheatfish (Silurus glanis results from the combined impacts of hydrogeography, climate and man. Paleontological evidences prove that the species was present in France (Rhône river before the glaciations. The improvement of the climatic conditions (from 10 000 JC and hydrographical interconnexions between tributaries of the Black and Caspian Sea basins, and between

  10. Du neuf avec du vieux : la politique climatique influence-t-elle l’aide bilatérale au développement ?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel Michaelowa

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Depuis la Conférence des Nations unies sur l’environnement et le développement qui s’est tenue à Rio de Janeiro en 1992, les donateurs bilatéraux et multilatéraux affirment que l’aide au développement a été axée toujours davantage sur des interventions respectueuses du climat. Dans le cadre de l’aide relative à l’énergie, cela devrait se traduire par une intensification sensible des projets liés aux énergies renouvelables et à l’efficacité énergétique. L’examen d’une nouvelle base de données réunissant des centaines de milliers de projets bilatéraux d’aide au développement nous permet d’établir si cette réorientation a bel et bien eu lieu. Or, contrairement aux attentes, il s’avère que la part des projets financés par des fonds bilatéraux et consacrés aux énergies renouvelables et à l’efficacité énergétique n’a pas progressé entre 1980 et 2008. Cette part a fortement varié en fonction des prix du pétrole ; elle présente notamment une crête coïncidant avec le deuxième choc pétrolier du début des années 1980. L’impact des accords internationaux portant sur le climat est mineur, voire inexistant. Les énergies renouvelables « traditionnelles » telles que l’hydroélectricité et la géothermie ont fléchi alors que les « nouvelles » énergies renouvelables ont connu deux temps forts, au début des années 1980 et à la fin des années 1990. Les différences entre les pays donateurs sont énormes. Plusieurs pays, dont des « climatosceptiques » comme les Etats-Unis et l’Australie, mais aussi le Royaume-Uni et la Suisse, ont présenté un recul constant. Les pionniers autoproclamés du climat tels que l’Allemagne, les Pays-Bas, la Norvège et la Suède affichent des pics liés tant aux chocs pétroliers qu’à la politique climatique internationale. Une « nouvelle » aide au développement liée à l’atténuation du réchauffement climatique n’est pr

  11. Les géographes - climatologues français et le changement climatique aux échelles régionales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gérard Beltrando

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available En France, sur le sujet du changement climatique et quel que soit son origine, les géographes - climatologues se sont majoritairement intéressés à la description et l’explication de la variabilité du climat à diverses échelles de temps et d’espace sur des périodes écoulées. Ils se sont moins investis sur les formes d’adaptations tenant compte des résultats des simulations du climat futur, tel qu’il est envisagé à partir des calculs obtenus par les modèles numériques du climat. Cette frilosité s’explique en partie par le manque de précision et de fiabilité accordé aux résultats produits par ces modèles, aux échelles des territoires occupés par les sociétés humaines, mais aussi parce que les travaux de géographes montrent depuis longtemps que les sociétés humaines - indépendamment du changement climatique sous l’effet des gaz à effet de serre additionnels - ont une part directe dans bien des catastrophes qui les affectent (construction dans des zones inondables, production agricole dans des régions où la pluviométrie peut être insuffisante certaines années…. Les géographes-climatologues, commencent à utiliser des nouvelles sorties de modèle à des échelles plus opérationnelles pour proposer des formes d’adaptations spécifiques à chaque territoire et à chaque secteur économique. Ces recherches prospectives sont réalisées en tenant compte à la fois de la part d’incertitude des résultats produits par des modèles numériques, mais aussi des particularités des groupes sociaux et des milieux physiques dans lesquels s’inscrivent ces changements. Cela est un préalable nécessaire à toutes formes de réflexion approfondies sur l'identification des facteurs d’adaptation.In France, on the topic of climate change, the geographer climatologists are focused on the description and explanation of climate variability at various temporal and spatial scales on last period. They are less

  12. Participatory Scenario Generation: Communicating Usability Issues in Product Design through User Involvement in Scenario Generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Bijl-Brouwer, Mieke; van der Voort, Mascha C.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios have proven to be a valuable tool in evaluating and communicating usability issues in consumer product design. Scenarios are explicit descriptions of hypothetical use situations. Realistic scenarios can serve as a valuable frame of reference to evaluate design solutions with regard to

  13. Conférence extérieure - Université de Genève: La modélisation numérique des extrêmes climatiques: Projections pour l'Europe et la Suisse d'ici 2100 - French version only

    CERN Document Server

    2006-01-01

    Université de Genève Ecole de physique 24 quai Ernest Ansermet 1211 Genève 4 Tél : + 41 22 379 63 83 (secrétariat) Tél : + 41 22 379 62 56 (réception) Fax: + 41 22 379 69 22 Lundi 15 janvier 2007 17 heures - Auditoire Stueckelberg La modélisation numérique des extrêmes climatiques: Projections pour l'Europe et la Suisse d'ici 2100 Prof. Martin Beniston / Chaire de Climatologie de l'Université de Genève Les nombreuses catastrophes liées au climat (canicule 2003 en Europe; inondations en Suisse en 2005; sécheresse en Australie; ouragans Katrina, etc.) donnent l'impression que les catastrophes climatiques qui touchent de nombreuses parties du monde sont la preuve du réchauffement climatique. A voir... Pourtant, les changements climatiques représentent l'un des thèmes de préoccupation majeure de ce début du 21e siècle, du moins pour les scientifiques sinon pour le monde politique. Car si l'ampleur, et surtout la rapidité du changement, sont aussi importants que ce que laissent entrevoi...

  14. Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

  15. Metaphorical scenarios in business science discourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baramee Kheovichai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Metaphor has been shown to play an important role in business science discourse. Yet, previous corpus-based studies only investigated a pre-selected list of metaphoric expressions, potentially rendering the analysis incomplete. Furthermore, some studies which only focused on lexis did not analyse how the lexical items may construct business concepts in terms of scenarios. The purpose of this research is to investigate metaphor used to construct business concepts in business research articles. 42 business research articles published in 2009-2010 from five journals ranked in the top-ten according to the 2007 journal impact factors (Thompson Reuters, 2008 constitute the data of this study. Semantic annotation software USAS (Rayson, 2008 was used to assist in the retrieval of metaphoric expressions. Furthermore, manual analysis of concordances was done to find metaphorical expressions that had not been captured by the semantic tags. The analysis of these metaphoric expressions was based on Conceptual Metaphor Theory (Lakoff & Johnson, 1980 and Metaphor Scenario (Musolff, 2006. Data analysis indicates that metaphor constructs business concepts as scenarios which have participants performing actions to reach their goal according to the SOURCE-PATH-GOAL schema of the source domains. At the centre of these scenarios, the BOUNDED SPACE source domain serves as a conceptual space or a setting for each scenario. Other source domains, which are WAR, SPORT, GAME, JOURNEY, MACHINE, LIVING ORGANISM, BUILDING and PHYSICAL FORCES, project the scenarios onto the space, forming interconnected and coherent scenarios of business discourse

  16. Développement intégré, gestion des risques et adaptation communautaire au changement climatique dans un système montagne-plaine au nord de la Tanzanie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben Wisner

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Cet article présente une analyse préliminaire d’un travail mené le long des pentes des montagnes et dans les plaines du nord de la Tanzanie. Un fort degré d’interdépendance a pu être mis en évidence parmi des groupes d’individus de langues et de cultures différentes, de statuts socio-économiques variés. Leurs interactions se situent le long de gradients environnementaux allant de l’amont à l’aval. On désignera cela « adaptation socio-géographique » au changement climatique. Cependant, l’analyse et la discussion présentées ajoutent la complexité à n’importe quelle notion simpliste « d’adaptation au changement climatique » puisque les changements sont multiples et l’adaptation, de fait, reste complexe.

  17. L’équité au cœur des politiques climatiques : l’exemple des négociations relatives au climat et de la recherche de solutions à la crise énergétique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loïc Aubrée

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available L’article débat de la question de l’équité dans la lutte contre les changements climatiques. Il établit un parallèle entre le développement pris au niveau international de la négociation entre Etats d’une part, et la pauvreté au niveau d’une collectivité d’autre part. Dans les deux cas, il s’agit à la fois d’un principe moral essentiel, mais aussi d’une condition centrale des consensus et donc de la réussite des politiques face au défi climatique. La question de l’équité renvoie aussi très vite au changement nécessaire des modes de vie vers plus de sobriété.The article debates Equity Issues in the Climate Change debate is debated. A parallel is set between the development issues at the international level of negotiations between States, and poverty alleviation at the local community level. In both cases, the discussions stem from an essential moral principle, but also as a requisite for consensus and thus a condition of success of climate change policies to combat Climate Change. The issue of equity brings also forward the necessary modification of consumption patterns, into more frugal modes.

  18. Analysis and modelling of the fuels european market; Analyse et modelisation des prix des produits petroliers combustibles en europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simon, V

    1999-04-01

    The research focus on the European fuel market prices referring to the Rotterdam and Genoa spot markets as well the German, Italian and French domestic markets. The thesis try to explain the impact of the London IPE future market on spot prices too. The mainstream research has demonstrated that co-integration seems to be the best theoretical approach to investigate the long run equilibrium relations. A particular attention will be devoted to the structural change in the econometric modelling on these equilibriums. A deep analysis of the main European petroleum products markets permit a better model specification concerning each of these markets. Further, we will test if any evidence of relations between spot and domestic prices could be confirmed. Finally, alternative scenarios will be depicted to forecast prices in the petroleum products markets. The objective is to observe the model reaction to changes crude oil prices. (author)

  19. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    frameworks for action. Trust speaks to persuasion and how stories of the future become trustworthy and garner credibility when traditional measures are fundamentally insufficient and irrelevant. That is, if we take as an assumption that we are not transpiring for truth or truthfulness in scenarios, then what...... formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... planning in light of conceptual understandings of trust. Such an inquiry highlights that scenarios have value inscriptions and varying degrees of normatively which are indebted to the particularities of their production q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  20. Fish Springs pond snail : Refuge communication scenario

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Communication scenario between the branch of Listing and Recovery, Fish and Wildlife Enhancement, and Fish Springs National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), in regards to the...

  1. Experts dismiss doomsday scenarios for RHIC

    CERN Multimedia

    Levi, B G

    2000-01-01

    A panel of particle physicists examining the possibility that operation of RHIC could generate blackholes or 'strangelets' which would consume ordinary matter, have declared that such scenarios are 'firmly excluded' (1 p).

  2. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  3. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

  4. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources.......The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...

  5. Scenarios and design: Scoping the dialogue space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea; Kimbell, Lucy; Ramirez, Rafael

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinary......'s contribution is to suggest how scenario planning can engage with design, resulting in new opportunities for research and projects. These modes of engagement provide a framing to explore dialogues between other management disciplines....

  6. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zucchetti, M. [European Commission, JRC, Institute for Advanced Material, Ispra, Vatican City State, Holy See (Italy); Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P. [Energetics Dept., Polytechnic of Turin (Italy)

    1998-07-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  7. Climate change and employment. A case study of France; Changement climatique et emploi. Cas de la France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-15

    The study has been carried out by a consortium led by the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) and the Social Development Agency (SDA), which includes Syndex, the Wuppertal Institute and ISTAS. It was commissioned by the European Commission, DG environment, as a contribution to improve current understanding of the relationship between climate change and employment. The study was also supported financially by seven public bodies: Ministries of Environment of Belgium, Spain, Finland, Italy, United-Kingdom; ADEME and DIAC in France. The first part of the study examines the potential consequences for employment of global warming in Europe - which has already begun and will continue. The main finding is that even moderate climate change will affect economic activity and employment in Europe, with some regions and economic sectors being particularly vulnerable. Increased warming will be likely to have very damaging consequences. The second half of the report considers the challenge for employment of the transition towards a lower CO2 European economy at the horizon 2030, in four key economic sectors: energy production, transport, steel and cement industries, construction/housing. The study considers a number of scenario for a reduction of 40% in CO2 emissions by the year 2030 and what the effects can be on European employment and skills. Case studies of eleven European countries are also analysed. This report is about France. [French] Le plan Climat, adopte en 2004, est un programme d'action gouvernemental qui regroupe des actions couvrant tous les secteurs de l'economie et de la vie quotidienne des FranCais et qui vise a stabiliser les emissions de gaz a effet de serre en 2010 a leur niveau de 1990 (564 Mte CO2), ce qui represente une economie minimale de 54 Mte CO2 par an a l'horizon 2010.

  8. Climate change and employment. A case study of Finland; Changement climatique et emploi. Cas de la Finlande

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-15

    The study has been carried out by a consortium led by the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) and the Social Development Agency (SDA), which includes Syndex, the Wuppertal Institute and ISTAS. It was commissioned by the European Commission, DG environment, as a contribution to improve current understanding of the relationship between climate change and employment. The study was also supported financially by seven public bodies: Ministries of Environment of Belgium, Spain, Finland, Italy, United-Kingdom; ADEME and DIAC in France. The first part of the study examines the potential consequences for employment of global warming in Europe - which has already begun and will continue. The main finding is that even moderate climate change will affect economic activity and employment in Europe, with some regions and economic sectors being particularly vulnerable. Increased warming will be likely to have very damaging consequences. The second half of the report considers the challenge for employment of the transition towards a lower CO2 European economy at the horizon 2030, in four key economic sectors: energy production, transport, steel and cement industries, construction/housing. The study considers a number of scenario for a reduction of 40% in CO2 emissions by the year 2030 and what the effects can be on European employment and skills. Case studies of eleven European countries are also analysed. This report is about Finland. [French] La Finlande est le 5e pays europeen en superficie, avec un total de 338.145 km{sup 2}, pour une population de 5,2 millions d'habitants. Le climat finlandais est le plus froid d'Europe, avec des besoins en chauffage pratiquement toute l'annee et des besoins en eclairage tres importants les mois d'hiver, en raison de la duree tres courte du jour. L'industrie est dominee par l'exploitation forestiere et le papier, ainsi que la metallurgie et la chimie, ces industries etant hautement energie-intensives. Ces

  9. Analysis of the energy scenario Negawatt 2006; Analyse du scenario energetique negaWatt 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2006-10-15

    The association Negawatt published in 2003 an energy scenario for the France in 2050, under the name of Negawatt 2006. This document aims to analyze the scenario Negawatt with a comparison of the scenario published on the web site of SLC, Save the Climate. The authors analyzes the main three sectors: electricity, transports and residential to propose their comparison in conclusion. (A.L.B.)

  10. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  11. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  12. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  13. La variabilité climatique et son impact sur les ressources en eau dans le degré carré de Grand-Lahou (Sud-Ouest de la Côte d'Ivoire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanina Drissa Soro

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Cette étude vise à montrer l'existence d'une variabilité climatique au niveau de la région de Grand-Lahou et à comprendre son impact sur l'alimentation des ressources en eau. Pour ce faire, diverses données et méthodes (indices centrés réduits, test de PETTIT, méthode bayésienne de LEE et HEGHINIAN ont été utilisées.L'application des indices centrés réduits aux séries pluviométriques et hydrologiques a mis en évidence une variabilité climatique caractérisée par une alternance de phases humides, normales et sèches. Les méthodes statistiques indiquent des ruptures entre 1966 et 1981, qui marquent une modification des régimes pluviométrique et hydrologique. Ces ruptures s'accompagnent d'une diminution de la pluviométrie de 13 à 28 % et de l'écoulement du Bandama de 58 %. Les manifestations de cette variabilité climatique se répercutent sur les ressources en eau souterraine. Ainsi les résultats du bilan hydrique montrent une baisse de la recharge des nappes souterraines.This study aims to show the existence of a climatic variability to the level of the region of Grand-Lahou and to understand its impact on the food of water resource. For that to make, various data and methods have been used (reduced centered indexes, PETTIT test, LEE and HEGHINIAN method.The application of the reduced centered indexes to the sets rainfall and runoff times series put in evidence a climatic variability characterized by an alternation of humid, normal and dry phases. The statistical methods show some breaks between 1966 and 1981 that mark a modification of the rainfall and runoff regimes. These breaks are accompanied by a rainfall decrease of 13 to 28 % and a flow decrease of 58 % for the river Bandama. This variability induces some effects on groundwater. Thus, water balance results show the decrease of groundwater recharge.

  14. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

  15. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

  16. Market structure scenarios in international steam coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueby, Johannes; Paulus, Moritz

    2011-04-15

    The seaborne steam coal market changed in recent years. Trade volumes grew dynamically, important players emerged and since 2007 prices increased significantly and remained relatively high since then. In this paper we analyse market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios in this market: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. We conclude from our results that international steam coal trade is not perfectly competitive as there is a large spread between marginal costs and prices and a low capacity utilisation in 2008. Further, trade flows are generally more diversified in reality than in the competitive scenario. However, also the Cournot scenarios fail to accurately explain real market outcomes. We conclude that only more sophisticated models of strategic behaviour can predict market equilibria in international steam coal trade. (orig.)

  17. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    with energy recovery and partly to mechanical biological treatment. A range of potential improvements in plastic management is introduced in the other four scenarios (P1–P4). P1 includes a source separation of clean plastic fractions for material recycling, whereas P2 a source separation of mixed plastic......The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

  18. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    on sustainability from farm to fork and organic foods are considered to be more wholesome. The consumers feel a growing need for protecting the nature and living a healthy life and they reject genetically modified foods. In the second scenario 'Technology-driven health' tendencies are very different. The consumers...... mainly supplying the home market. From a social point of view this will require further growth of other industries to replace the important place of the food industry. Another challenge will be to define sustainability and naturalness in relation to food production plus to simplify and standardize rules...... and regulations. The biggest challenges in the second scenario 'Technology-driven health' are the accumulation of knowledge that has to take place in order to develop and produce 'high-tech foods'. The scenario calls for research and development and it is questionable whether individual companies will be able...

  19. Geologic modeling constrained by seismic and dynamical data; Modelisation geologique contrainte par les donnees sismiques et dynamiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pianelo, L.

    2001-09-01

    Matching procedures are often used in reservoir production to improve geological models. In reservoir engineering, history matching leads to update petrophysical parameters in fluid flow simulators to fit the results of the calculations with observed data. In the same line, seismic parameters are inverted to allow the numerical recovery of seismic acquisitions. However, it is well known that these inverse problems are poorly constrained. The idea of this original work is to simultaneous match both the permeability and the acoustic impedance of the reservoir, for an enhancement of the resulting geological model. To do so, both parameters are linked using either observed relations and/or the classic Wyllie (porosity impedance) and Carman-Kozeny (porosity-permeability) relationships. Hence production data are added to the seismic match, and seismic observations are used for the permeability recovery. The work consists in developing numerical prototypes of a 3-D fluid flow simulator and a 3-D seismic acquisition simulator. Then, in implementing the coupled inversion loop of the permeability and the acoustic impedance of the two models. We can hence test our theory on a 3-D realistic case. Comparison of the coupled matching with the two classical ones demonstrates the efficiency of our method. We reduce significantly the number of possible solutions, and then the number of scenarios. In addition to that, the augmentation of information leads to a natural improvement of the obtained models, especially in the spatial localization of the permeability contrasts. The improvement is significant, at the same time in the distribution of the two inverted parameters, and in the rapidity of the operation. This work is an important step in a way of data integration, and leads to a better reservoir characterization. This original algorithm could also be useful in reservoir monitoring, history matching and in optimization of production. This new and original method is patented and

  20. Modeling and Understanding Time-Evolving Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riccardo Melen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of modeling application scenarios characterized by variability over time and involving heterogeneous kinds of knowledge. The evolution of distributed technologies creates new and challenging possibilities of integrating different kinds of problem solving methods, obtaining many benefits from the user point of view. In particular, we propose here a multilayer modeling system and adopt the Knowledge Artifact concept to tie together statistical and Artificial Intelligence rule-based methods to tackle problems in ubiquitous and distributed scenarios.

  1. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    so he orders the fish anyway. What else should he get? He has another look at the web site and finds suggestions for side dishes: New potatoes and a green salad. The ingredients for the salad are, of course, rinsed and ready to serve and the potatoes only need a short boil. Mr. Jensen likes the foods...... of the project has been to develop scenarios for four sectors of the Danish food industry - meat, dairy, fish and fruit and vegetables - for 2010. The scenarios are put together with the purpose of making the food industry and food research reflect on which demands their competencies will be met with in various...

  2. The Impact of Gamification - Recommending Education Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Erenli

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Many students play (computer games in their leisure time, thus acquiring skills which can easily be utilized when it comes to teaching more sophisticated knowledge. Nevertheless many educators today are wasting this opportunity. Some have evaluated gaming scenarios and methods for teaching students and have created the term “gamification”. This paper describes the history of this new term and explains the possible impact on teaching. It will take well-researched facts into consideration to discuss the potential of games. Moreover, scenarios will be illustrated and evaluated for educators to adopt and use on their own.

  3. The other radios: Alternative scenario in Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Rivadeneyra-Olcese

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Peruvian radio shows a huge diversity in direct proportion to its multiculturality, the same which shows a process full of different influences of social actor which have produced a complex and extremely rich scenario, that is also filled with opportunities and challenges. Beyond the great capital commercial radio are the other radios, small companies, provincial, from church or the mayor or small business owners sons of folkloric melomania, different actors with a passion to establish a new media. The multiple motivations produce a scenario with many types of radio that we wishes to start knowing.

  4. Scenarios of Expansion to Electric Generation Capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Somoza-Cabrera

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We show the building scenarios of expansion to electric generation capacity enough to supply the demand to 2050. We were using the LEAP facility (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, to simulate dispatch of electricity at minimum cost. Finally, we show the cost-benefice analysis of the technologies availability, included externality and CO2 emission limited. However that we included the externals cost in this analysis, it results insufficient to closed gap between fossil and renewable technologies of electric generation. Nevertheless, in some opportunities the renewable options had very important participations in the minimal cost scenario of expansion.

  5. Changement climatique et viticulture en Champagne : du constat actuel aux prévisions du modèle ARPEGE-Climat sur l’évolution des températures pour le XXIe siècle 

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gérard Beltrando

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Dans le vignoble de Champagne, le changement climatique, perceptible depuis la fin des années 1980, se manifeste par une tendance à la précocité des stades phénologiques et par une amélioration de la qualité des raisins vendangés. Mais cette évolution interpelle le milieu professionnel car, si elle se poursuit, elle pourrait devenir néfaste pour la qualité de la production de raisin (chaleur estivale trop importante, taux d’alcool élevé…. Afin d’apporter des éléments de réponse sur l’évolution des températures (moyennes et extrêmes quotidiens dans un contexte d’augmentation de la concentration en gaz à effet de serre, les données de température quotidiennes calculées par le modèle numérique ARPEGE-Climat (Retic de Météo-France sont validées par comparaison avec celles mesurées à Reims-Courcy sur la période 1950-2006. Puis, les simulations obtenues sur la période 2001-2100 par ce modèle sont analysées  pour les trois scénarios les plus couramment utilisés par l’IPCC [B1 (optimiste, A1B (intermédiaire, A2 (pessimiste]. Les résultats montrent une tendance non linéaire vers un réchauffement de l’air mais aussi une grande variabilité des températures d’un scénario à l’autre. A partir des années 2060, les modèles fournissent des prévisions de températures qui, auront  des répercussions majeures sur l’activité vitivinicole, surtout pour le scénario pessimiste (A2.In Champagne vineyard, Climate Change already observed since the end of 1980’s, showed by precocity of phenology as harvests and quality improvement of grapes. This temporal evolution calls out to wine growers because if this evolution continues, it could become harmful to grape production quality (summer heat waves, lack of water, high alcohol rate…. In the aim to find responses concerning temperature evolution (means and daily extremes in a context of  greenhouse concentration rise, daily temperature data

  6. Formal Verification of Simulation Scenarios in Aviation Scenario Definition Language (ASDL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bharvi Chhaya

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Formal methods offer well-defined means for mathematical verification of the functional specifications of software systems. For model-based engineering, model checking is a verification technique that explores all possible system states. The Aviation Scenario Definition Language is a domain-specific language designed based on a scenario development process from a model-driven engineering perspective. It aims at providing a well-structured definition language to specify departure, en route, re-route, and landing scenarios. This paper uses statecharts and a model checker for the verification of each scenario generated and uses examples to demonstrate conformance to the rules established in the statecharts to verify the logic of all future scenarios.

  7. Orchestrating Learning Scenarios for the Borderless Classroom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, Esther; Rusman, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    This part of the symposium focuses on the design of seamless learning experiences in a borderless classroom. There are two parts to this symposium. We start with unpacking various theoretical approaches that inform the instructional design of boundary-crossing learning scenarios, such as social

  8. Future wind deployment scenarios for South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wright, Jarrad G

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available expansion planning exercise is undertaken. The results of this show that a considerable deployment of wind into the future should be expected where in least-cost scenarios ˜15-25 GW of installed wind capacity by 2030 (˜10-20% of the energy mix), ˜40-60 GW...

  9. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darby, John L.

    2007-03-01

    In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

  10. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenarios for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Mittal, Shivika

    2014-01-01

    are delineated that would facilitate the sustainable low carbon transformation of India’s transport sector. The long term energy and emission trajectory of India’s transport sector is assessed under alternate scenarios using the integrated assessment modelling framework. Co-benefits like energy security...

  11. Probabilistic results for a mobile service scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Yiu, Man Lung

    We consider the following stochastic model for a mobile service scenario. Consider a stationary Poisson process in Rd, with its points radially ordered with respect to the origin (the anchor); if d = 2, the points may correspond to locations of e.g. restaurants. A user, with a location different...

  12. Cell Load Balancing in Heterogeneous Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eduardo, Simao; Rodrigues, Antonio; Mihovska, Albena D.

    2013-01-01

    Cell load imbalances in wireless networks degrade performance. Macro and small cell collocated deployments (heterogeneous scenario) constitutes a new problem for load balancing. This paper proposes a novel admission control algorithm for an optimal solution to the assignment of traffic flows...

  13. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  14. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  15. Session 3: PICs and upgrade scenario 1

    CERN Document Server

    Meddahi, M

    2014-01-01

    This document summarizes the talks and discussion which took place in the third session of the RLIUP Review. The session was devoted to Performance Improving Consolidation (thereafter PICs) and Upgrade scenario 1. The PICs were defined as the “Replacement or upgrade of a system justified by consolidation but with the goal of improving performance”. The PICs scenario goals were further defined as accumulating 70 fb-1 integrated luminosity per year over a period a 10 years of operation, reaching 1000 fb-1 (starting with an initial integrated luminosity of 300 fb-1). An ‘Upgrade’ was defined as the ‘Replacement or addition of a system to improve the performance, which would otherwise not be necessary’. The Upgrade scenario 1 goals were defined as accumulating 170 fb-1 integrated luminosity per year over a period a 10 years of operation, reaching 2000 fb-1 (starting with an initial integrated luminosity of 300 fb-1). This scenario assumed no crab cavity, no levelling, and a crossing angle adjusted for...

  16. Solution space diagram in conflict detection scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahman, S.M.A.; Borst, C.; Mulder, M.; Van Paassen, M.M.

    2015-01-01

    This research investigates the use of Solution Space Diagram (SSD) as a measure of sector complexity and also as a predictor of performance and workload, focusing on the scenarios regarding Air Traffic Controller (ATCO)’s ability to detect future conflicts. A human-in-the-loop experiment with

  17. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  18. Scenario evaluation of open pond microalgae production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slegers, P.M.; Lösing, M.B.; Wijffels, R.H.; Straten, van G.; Boxtel, van A.J.B.

    2013-01-01

    To evaluate microalgae production in large scale open ponds under different climatologic conditions, a model-based framework is used to study the effect of light conditions, water temperature and reactor design on trends in algae productivity. Scenario analyses have been done for two algae species

  19. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario

  20. European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ertug Ercin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

  1. National FCEV and Hydrogen Fueling Station Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc

    2016-06-09

    This presentation provides a summary of the FY16 activities and accomplishments for NREL's national fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) and hydrogen fueling station scenarios project. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 9, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  2. Maize leaf development under climate change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nereu Augusto Streck

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to simulate maize leaf development in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in air temperature. The model of Wang & Engel for leaf appearance rate (LAR, with genotype-specific coefficients for the maize variety BRS Missões, was used to simulate tip and expanded leaf accumulated number from emergence to flag leaf appearance and expansion, for nine emergence dates from August 15 to April 15. LAR model was run for each emergence date in 100-year climate scenarios: current climate, and +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5°C increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum air temperature. Maize crop failure due to frost decreased in elevated temperature scenarios, in the very early and very late emergence dates, indicating a lengthening in the maize growing season in warmer climates. The leaf development period in maize was shorter in elevated temperature scenarios, with greater shortening in asymmetric temperature increases, indicating that warmer nights accelerate vegetative development in maize.

  3. No-arbitrage bounds for financial scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2014-01-01

    We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...

  4. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...

  5. Improving exposure scenario definitions within REACH

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Jihyun; Pizzol, Massimo; Thomsen, Marianne

    the different background exposure between two countries allows in fact the definition of a common framework for improving exposure scenarios within REACH system, for monitoring environmental health, and for increasing degree of circularity of resource and substance flows. References 1. European Commission...

  6. Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-10-15

    As part of the major WEC study on Scenarios to 2050, a specific investigation was undertaken on measures required in the transport sector to secure sustainable energy and sustainable mobility in the future. This report outlines the results conducted by a study group of international WEC transport experts and gives concrete policy recommendations to develop sustainable transport systems.

  7. The Scenario of Gifted Education in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wechsler, Solange Muglia; Fleith, Denise de Souza

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of gifted education in Brazil. A scenario of the education of the gifted is presented, including the official concept of giftedness as well as programs and services available to emphasize important contributions to the area. Although there are considerable advances regarding policies, practices,…

  8. Scenario-based Training: Director's Cut

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Van den Bosch, K.; Meyer, J-J.Ch.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology off ers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We

  9. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

  10. Modelling of the generation phase of an absorption cooling cycle operating intermittently; Modelisation de la phase generation d'un cycle de refrigeration par absorption solaire a fonctionnement intermittent

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boukhchana, Yasmina; Fellah, Ali; Ben Brahim, Ammar [Unite de Recherche, Thermodynamique Appliquee (99/UR/11-21), Universite de Gabes, Ecole Nationale d' ingenieurs, 6072 Gabes (Tunisia)

    2011-01-15

    No abstract prepared. [French] La modelisation en regime dynamique de la phase generation d'une installation frigorifique a absorption solaire a fonctionnement intermittent utilisant le couple ammoniac/eau a ete elaboree. L'etude basee sur l'intermittence du fonctionnement a permis d'elaborer, a travers les bilans matieres et thermiques, un modele thermodynamique reliant les temperatures, les debits et les fractions massiques dans les differents compartiments. Des journees ensoleillees representatives des quatre saisons de l'annee ont ete considerees. Les variations du taux d'ensoleillement, des temperatures et des concentrations ont ete explorees. Les resultats ont montre, moyennant les hypotheses adoptees en particulier a pression de fonctionnement constante, que la demarche proposee a permis d'avoir une temperature de generation autour de 135 C et une temperature de condensation de 60 C. Ces temperatures sont atteinte par l'adaptation de la convection naturelle a l'air pour le fonctionnement du condenseur. (orig.)

  11. Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

    2017-10-01

    Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

  12. Le rôle des facteurs locaux sur les effets des changements climatiques au Quaternaire supérieur sur les environnements naturel du Néguev septentrional

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron Yair

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Les régions sèches sont souvent considérées sensibles aux changements climatiques. Pour ces régions, une relation positive est souvent proposée entre la pluie annuelle moyenne et les données de l'environnement, par des scientifiques appartenant à des disciplines diverses. Cependant les modèles climatiques globaux sont encore incapables de prévoir d'une façon précise l'évolution du climat à l'échelle régionale et ses effets possibles sur l'environnement. De plus, ces modèles sont impuissants à traduire l'influence que des facteurs non climatiques tels que la lithologie et les sols, ainsi que des facteurs biologiques, exercent sur la répartition de l'eau dans l'espace et le temps. En d'autres termes, le même changement climatique régional prévu aura probablement des effets différents dans les secteurs rocheux, lœssiques ou sableux. Le Néguev septentrional offre des conditions très favorables pour l'étude des effets possibles du changement climatique prévu, le long d'un gradient pluviométrique régional où les unités physiographiques varient dans l'espace. Deux cas sont considérés. Le premier traite des effets sur l'environnement du dépôt d'un couvert lœssique lors d'une phase climatique humide au Quaternaire supérieur. Le second examine l'influence de croûtes biologiques de surface sur le régime hydrique d'une zone sableuse le long d'un gradient pluviométrique actuel. Dans les deux cas, le gradient pluviométrique est accompagné par d'autres gradients (géomorphologiques, pédologiques, biologiques. Les données obtenues attirent l'attention sur les relations complexes entre le gradient pluviométrique et les autres gradients, qui peuvent entraîner des effets négatifs sur les ressources hydriques et sur la qualité de l'environnement.Dryland areas are usually regarded as highly sensitive to climate change. A positive relationship between average annual rainfall and environmental variables is often assumed

  13. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  14. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension or acc...

  15. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.

    2010-01-01

    or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic...... of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants. (Sim Healthcare 5: 219-225, 2010)...

  16. FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serhiy Nozhenko

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

  17. River multimodal scenario for rehabilitation robotics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munih, Marko; Novak, Domen; Milavec, Maja; Ziherl, Jaka; Olenšek, Andrej; Mihelj, Matjaž

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the novel "River" multimodal rehabilitation robotics scenario that includes video, audio and haptic modalities. Elements contributing to intrinsic motivation are carefully joined in the three modalities to increase motivation of the user. The user first needs to perform a motor action, then receives a cognitive challenge that is solved with adequate motor activity. Audio includes environmental sounds, music and spoken instructions or encouraging statements. Sounds and music were classified according to the arousal-valence space. The haptic modality can provide catching, grasping, tunnel or adaptive assistance, all depending on the user's needs. The scenario was evaluated in 16 stroke users, who responded to it favourably according to the Intrinsic Motivation Inventory questionnaire. Additionally, the river multimodal environment seems to elicit higher motivation than a simpler apple pick-and-place multimodal task. © 2011 IEEE

  18. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  19. TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIOS TO THE DEMAND FOR SUGARCANE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Franco Paes Leme Barbosa

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available From the first decade of the 2000s, it is clear that there is an increase in discussions involving sustainability, including the bioenergy issue, to which Brazil has drawn the attention due to advances in the ethanol industry. Advances in engine technology reflected new opportunities for this industry and, according to the Ten-Year Energy Plan for 2019 developed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, there is an expected increase in demand for ethanol of 90% by 2019 (Brazil, 2010. However, new technologies for the conversion and use of sugarcane and the complex context of this industry add uncertainties to this sector. Aiming to discuss and include the uncertainties on the agenda of this industry, this study proposes to elaborate and discuss prospective scenarios to the demand for sugarcane. Four scenarios with different perspectives of technological advance and market development were elaborated and discussed in the conclusion.

  20. Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2012-01-01

    Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban...... region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change in the metropolitan area of Copenhagen, Denmark, and the impact of the current regional planning...... framework, the “Fingerplan 2007”. We test three policy scenarios and analyse different effects on urban growth by using the Metronamica model from the Dutch-based Research Institute for Knowledge Systems (RIKS). We analyse the possibilities to elaborate a practical and useful outcome within a relatively...

  1. Effective scenario of loop quantum cosmology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, You; Ma, Yongge; Yang, Jinsong

    2009-02-06

    Semiclassical states in isotropic loop quantum cosmology are employed to show that the improved dynamics has the correct classical limit. The effective Hamiltonian for the quantum cosmological model with a massless scalar field is thus obtained, which incorporates also the next to leading order quantum corrections. The possibility that the higher order correction terms may lead to significant departure from the leading order effective scenario is revealed. If the semiclassicality of the model is maintained in the large scale limit, there are great possibilities for a k=0 Friedmann expanding universe to undergo a collapse in the future due to the quantum gravity effect. Thus the quantum bounce and collapse may contribute a cyclic universe in the new scenario.

  2. Monitoring and Analyzing a Game Server Scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Jelmert, Stian Opsahl

    2008-01-01

    Master i nettverks- og systemadministrasjon Today, most literature about services in system administration is about conventional services like email servers. How could one monitor and analyze a scenario where the service in question is a game server? As these two services are technologically different, conventional monitoring tools may miss vital information in the context of game servers. This thesis focuses on developing a monitoring system for a game server in order to...

  3. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives.

  4. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  5. Scenarios as methods of Community Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2002-01-01

    The significance of the scenario workshop is the combination of creativity, reflection and action helping the participants to imaging and realise desirable futures. It can contribute to fill the gaps between visions of the future and the present situation, giving the participants knowledge and po...... and power to act themselves instead of just being passively adjusted to the ongoing changes of their organisation or community....

  6. Metagenomic Detection Methods in Biopreparedness Outbreak Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Oskar Erik; Hansen, Trine; Knutsson, Rickard

    2013-01-01

    of a clinical sample, creating a metagenome, in a single week of laboratory work. As new technologies emerge, their dissemination and capacity building must be facilitated, and criteria for use, as well as guidelines on how to report results, must be established. This article focuses on the use of metagenomics......, gaps in research, and future directions. Examples of metagenomic detection, as well as possible applications of the methods, are described in various biopreparedness outbreak scenarios....

  7. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  8. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

    1999-07-09

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios.

  9. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  10. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesus Vera-Aguilera

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice.

  11. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghanem, Mohamed

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  12. Analysing Scenarios of Cell Population System Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Vinogradova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers an isolated population system consisting of two types of human stem cells, namely normal cells and cells with chromosomal abnormalities (abnormal ones. The system develops in the laboratory (in vitro. The article analyses possible scenarios of the population system development, which are implemented for different values of its parameters. An investigated model of the cell population system takes into account the limited resources. It is represented as a system of two nonlinear differential equations with continuous right-hand part. The model is considered with non-negative values of the variables; the domain is divided into four sets. The model feature is that in each set the right part of the system of differential equations has a different form.The article analyses a quality of the rest points of the system in each of four sets. The analytical conditions for determination of the number of rest points and the quality of rest points, with, at least, one zero coordinate, are obtained.It is shown that the population system under study cannot have more than two points of rest, both coordinates of which are positive (non-zero. It is difficult to determine quality of such rest points depending on the model parameters due to the complexity of the expressions, which define the systems of the first approximation, recorded in a neighborhood of these points of rest. Numerical research results of the stability of these points of rest are obtained, and phase portraits with the specified specific values of the system parameters are demonstrated. The main scenarios for the cell population development are adduced. Analysis of mathematical model shows that a cell population system may remain the system consisting of populations of normal and abnormal cells; it can degenerate into a population of abnormal cells or perish. The scenario, in which there is only the population of normal cells, is not implemented. The numerical simulation

  13. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  14. The HayWired earthquake scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  15. Climatic change; Le Changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perthuis, Ch. de [Universite de Paris-Dauphine, 75 - Paris (France); Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France); Delbosc, A. [Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France)

    2009-07-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  16. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Eric A.; Kanter, David

    2014-10-01

    Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions.

  17. INFORMATION SCENARIOS OVER THE RISK IN INSURANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Rodica Tirlea

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Risks management means identifying them, assessing, quantifying and strategy to counter them, and finding solutions to some levers to diminish or even eliminate the possibility of developing or their consequences. Hung everywhere, risk is associated with uncertain situations and opportunities. The consequences of risk can result in adverse or positive effects related to the activity of the insurance undertaking or of the reinsurance undertaking. The risk has a pronounced randomly character, and its presence in the field of insurance undertakings and reinsurance. This can be explained by the fact that the risks are taken by these companies and have direct effects on their financial results during the period of validity of the contractual relations. The results of risk effects have an impact on the results of activity of insurance companies. The financial impact of a negative event, exceed the sum of the individual loss, leading in some cases to bankruptcy. The financial impact is due to the positive opportunities, which have not made an appearance, and the first event to transform into income. An important role is the responsibility of the information system, providing solutions based on scenarios, by electronic data processing, consider all types of consequences of a hazard and allow insurance companies and reinsurance, on the other hand, to calculate all the possible consequences of a given event and the ultimate financial impact on them, and finally, to make decisions to base decisions for various insurance products and reinsurance. People insurance records for each situation. In practice the scenario method is only used to make specific estimates for different scenarios depending on the circumstances, which has a certain probability of realization, for the favorable; for the neutral and negative and gives solutions for each individual, taking into account certain criteria. For example, we will present a life insurance in several poses.

  18. R modes and neutron star recycling scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chugunov, A. I.; Gusakov, M. E.; Kantor, E. M.

    2017-06-01

    To put new constraints on the r-mode instability window, we analyse the formation of millisecond pulsars (MSPs) within the recycling scenario, making use of three sets of observations: (a) X-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) in low-mass X-ray binaries; (b) timing of MSPs and (c) X-ray and UV observations of MSPs. As shown in previous works, r-mode dissipation by shear viscosity is not sufficient to explain observational set (a), and enhanced r-mode dissipation at the redshifted internal temperatures T ∞ ˜ 108 K is required to stabilize the observed NSs. Here, we argue that models with enhanced bulk viscosity can hardly lead to a self-consistent explanation of observational set (a) due to strong neutrino emission, which is typical for these models (unrealistically powerful energy source is required to keep NSs at the observed temperatures.). We also demonstrate that the observational set (b), combined with the theory of internal heating and NS cooling, provides evidence of enhanced r-mode dissipation at low temperatures, T ∞ ˜ 2 × 107 K. Observational set (c) allows us to set an upper limit on the internal temperatures of MSPs, T ∞ Recycling scenario can produce MSPs at these temperatures only if r-mode instability is suppressed in the whole MSP spin frequency range (ν ≲ 750 Hz) at temperatures 2 × 107 ≲ T ∞ ≲ 3 × 107 K, providing thus a new constraint on the r-mode instability window. These observational constraints are analysed in more details in application to the resonance uplift scenario of Gusakov et al.

  19. Scenarios of hydrogen production from wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klaric, Mario

    2010-09-15

    Since almost total amount of hydrogen is currently being produced from natural gas, other ways of cleaner and 'more renewable' production should be made feasible in order to make benchmarks for total 'hydrogen economy'. Hydrogen production from wind power combined with electrolysis imposes as one possible framework for new economy development. In this paper various wind-to-hydrogen scenarios were calculated. Cash flows of asset based project financing were used as decision making tool. Most important parameters were identified and strategies for further research and development and resource allocation are suggested.

  20. MOBILE LEARNING: CONTEXT ADAPTATION AND SCENARIO APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir V. Kureichik

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a model of an open architecture for component context-dependent systems of computer training to the needs of the software applications of intelligent learning environments and adaptive learning systems. The structure of a content management system is developed based on Semantic Web. The model for developing of the engine is supposed to be based on probabilistic automata. Another part of work is developing of learning scenarios and possibilities for its adaptation. The context approach for personalization of learning style is described in the paper as well. 

  1. Experiments, Passive Observation and Scenario Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoover, Kevin D.; Juselius, Katarina

    The paper provides a careful, analytical account of Trygve Haavelmo's unsystematic, but important, use of the analogy between controlled experiments common in the natural sciences and econometric techniques. The experimental analogy forms the linchpin of the methodology for passive observation...... that he develops in his famous monograph, The Probability Approach in Econometrics (1944). We show how, once the details of the analogy are systematically understood, the experimental analogy can be used to shed light on theory-consistent cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) scenario analysis. CVAR...

  2. Experimental observations of boric acid precipitation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaghetto, R., E-mail: r.vaghetto@tamu.edu; Childs, M., E-mail: masonchilds@tamu.edu; Jones, P., E-mail: pgjones87@tamu.edu; Lee, S., E-mail: sayalee@tamu.edu; Kee, E., E-mail: erniekee@gmail.com; Hassan, Y.A., E-mail: y-hassan@tamu.edu

    2017-02-15

    During a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) in Light Water Reactors (LWR), borated water is injected into the core through the safety injection system. The continuous vaporization of the water from the core may increase the concentration of boric acid in the core that, under certain conditions may reach the solubility limit and precipitate. This includes scenarios where the liquid water supply to the core is affected by possible blockages due to debris accumulation. Questions have been raised on the effects of the precipitate in the core on the flow behavior, including the possibility of additional blockages produced by precipitate accumulation. A simple experimental facility was constructed to perform experimental observations of the behavior of borated water under the combined effects of the boiling and the boric acid precipitation (BAP). The facility consists of a transparent polycarbonate vertical pipe where forty-five heated rods have been installed to supply the power to the water to reach the saturation temperature, and maintain a desired boil-off rate. The layout and geometry of the experimental apparatus were conceived to emulate a simplified core of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Experimental observations have been conducted under two different conditions. Preliminary tests were conducted to observe the behavior of the water and the boric acid precipitate during a boil-off scenario without borated water addition (decreasing water level). During the main test runs, borated water was constantly injected from the top of the test section to maintain a constant mixture level in the test section. Both tests assumed no flow from the bottom of the test section which may be the case of PWR LOCA scenarios in presence of debris-generated core blockage. The observations performed with a set of cameras installed around the test section showed interesting effects of the vapor bubbles on the boric acid precipitate migration and accumulation in the test section. The

  3. Postulated accident scenarios in weapons disassembly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, S.S. [Dept. of Energy, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1997-06-01

    A very brief summary of three postulated accident scenarios for weapons disassembly is provided in the paper. The first deals with a tetrahedral configuration of four generic pits; the second, an infinite planar array of generic pits with varying interstitial water density; and the third, a spherical shell with internal mass suspension in water varying the size and mass of the shell. Calculations were performed using the Monte Carlo Neutron Photon transport code MCNP4A. Preliminary calculations pointed to a need for higher resolution of small pit separation regimes and snapshots of hydrodynamic processes of water/plutonium mixtures.

  4. Intervehicle Communication Research – Communication Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šarūnas Stanaitis

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Recently intervehicle communications are attracting much attention from industry and academia. Upcoming standard for intervehicle communication IEEE 802.11p, known as Wireless Access in Vehicular Environments (WAVE, is still in its draft stage, but already coming into final standardization phase. Problematic, regarding mobile WAVE nodes, are described in several articles, simulations prepared and experiments done. But most of these works do not consider possible maximal communication load. This paper presents intervehicle communication scenario in respect to radio communications, mobility and other aspects of vehicular environments.Article in English

  5. Final report of the project. Emission of nitrogen oxides by the soils. Measures, modelization, land registry and inventory. Impact on the air quality, the climatic change and the evaluation of possibilities of these emissions reduction; Rapport final du projet. Emissions d'oxydes d'azote par les sols. Mesures, modelisation, cadastre et inventaire. Impact sur la qualite de l'air, le changement climatique, et evaluation des gisements de reduction de ces emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serca, D.; Cortinovis, J. [LA Laboratoire d' Aerologie UMR 5560, 31 - Toulouse (France); Laville, P.; Gabrielle, B. [Institut National de Recherches Agronomiques (INRA), Environnement et Grandes Cultures, 78 - Thiverval-Grignon (France); Beekmann, M.; Ravetta, F. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, SA Service d' Aeronomie, 75 - Paris (France); Henault, C. [Institut National de Recherches Agronomiques (INRA-LMS) UMR Microbiologie des Sols-Geosol, 21 - Dijon (France)

    2007-07-01

    This project deals with NOx biosphere-atmosphere exchanges, NOx being considered as an indirect greenhouse gases (tropospheric O{sub 3} precursor). It relies on four laboratory specialized both on the soil-plant-atmosphere interface, and on the atmospheric chemistry. Methodology used bear on a set of in situ and laboratory measurements aiming at improving existing emission parameterization, or building new ones for the agro-ecosystems encountered in France or Europe. In situ measurements allowed to study the emission phenology in relation with relevant environmental parameters (meteorological, soil characteristics, and agricultural). Laboratory measurements allowed to establish an emission algorithm related to the three main parameters, that is, soil temperature, water and ammonia content. This algorithm has been adapted and simplified to spatialize the emissions at the France level. This spatialization was performed using environmental parameters accessible through data base (ECMWF) or agricultural statistics (such as nitrogen inputs, land use, crops). Spatial and temporal extrapolation allowed reaching the main objective, that is, to build a national inventory for a reference year (2002). This inventory allowed determining the contribution of NOx emitted by soil as compared to total emitted NOx, and the proportion of NOx emitted by soil due to fertilizer use. Our study, based on 57% of the French used agricultural area, and extrapolated to the whole arable surface, shows that soils would be responsible of about 5% of the total NOx emissions. On these 5%, 20%, which finally is a rather low percentage, would be linked to fertilizer use. The impact of these emissions on the atmospheric chemistry has been evaluated using the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model. We found that NOx emissions from soil would be of minor importance when compared to the industrial emissions, being a factor of ten lower in France. As a matter of consequence, the impact of the emissions on the maximum ozone concentration during summer months is relatively limited over Europe, but can reach 2 to 3 ppb for some of the rural French regions. (author)

  6. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  7. Environmental impact of PV cell waste scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogacka, M; Pikoń, K; Landrat, M

    2017-12-01

    Rapid growth of the volume of waste from PV cells is expected in the following years. The problem of its utilization seems to be the most important issue for future waste management systems. The environmental impacts of the PV recycling scenario are presented in the manuscript. The analysis is based on the LCA approach and the average data available in specialized databases for silicon standard PV cell is used. The functional unit includes parameters like: efficiency, composition, surface area. The discussion on the environmental impact change due to the location of the PV production and waste processing plants is presented in the manuscript. Additionally, the discussion on the environmental effect of substituting different energy resources with PV cells is presented in the manuscript. The analysis of the PV cell life cycle scenario presented in the article was performed using the SIMA PRO software and data from Ecoinvent 3.0 database together with additional data obtained from other sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. The SEVEA energy scenario of Vihti ecovillage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oranen, J. (Infonets Engineering Oy, Kirkkonummi (Finland)), Email: jukka.oranen@kolumbus.fi

    2009-07-01

    The climate change and the EU targets to save energy, increase renewables and decrease CHG emissions by 20 % call for new system conceptions. The SEVEA stands for Sustainable Eco Village Energy Architecture which could save up to 75 % energy by a novel conception. It has been planned for the Vihti ecovillage near Helsinki. The paper presents the key aspects of the SEVEA architecture. Seven subsystems has been defined and a preliminary tender call for the technologies needed has been done. The analysis and calculations of the technical and business feasibility has revealed new possibilities. The SEVEA provides a scenario to build the CHP and district heating for suburb areas and smaller villages contributing to the EU targets. The current CHP and district heating systems have not been competitive in smaller suburbs and villages. The future regulations for low energy houses will make even more difficult to serve the suburb areas with the traditional CHP and district heating system. A change towards innovative low-energy solution is necessary. The SEVEA provides a scenario towards the low energy and temperature management. (orig.)

  9. Knowledge Management in Economic Downturn: Indian Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mehta

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge management is becoming an indispensable aspect of most of the modern business organizations. It is considered as a corporate cost savings process to augment performance capabilities with broader availability and utilization of major corporate knowledge assets. Knowledge management is the basis of all planning, all development and all progress ofan organization. It is one of the significant ingredients, which makes the accessibility of acceptance with understanding of learning. With recession encompassing the globe, theorganizations are passionately engaged in cost cutting practices to maintain profitability and competitiveness. When enterprises realize that developing and sharing knowledge is pivotal tosustain a cutting edge, the management can decide to place knowledge management high on their agenda- especially during economic turmoil. The Indian organizations have exceedingly done well during the economic turmoil. The present paper is an attempt to study knowledge management during recession in Indian scenario. Major challenges faced by the organizations are highlighted along with strategies to overcome such challenges are presented by the authors.Keywords: knowledge, knowledge management, recession, innovation, Indian scenario.

  10. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  11. Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dlhopolsky, R.; Hollmann, R.; Mueller, J.; Stuhlmann, R. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

    1997-12-31

    The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

  12. CP Violation in Heavy MSSM Higgs Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Carena, M; Lee, J S; Pilaftsis, A; Wagner, C E M

    2016-01-01

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales M_S above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass M_H+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with a charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG...

  13. Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

    2002-03-01

    The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

  14. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  15. Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario; Diviser par 4 nos rejets: le scenario Negatep

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2007-01-15

    The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO{sub 2} emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO{sub 2} releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

  16. Towards Validating Game Scenarios for Teaching Conflict Resolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Grappiolo, Corrado; Pedersen, Christoffer Holmgård

    2013-01-01

    Teaching conflict resolution skills via serious games has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper describes game scenarios that were developed to evoke variant levels of conflict intensity to children. To validate the scenarios, we implemented a prototype and created videos from...... play-throughs of the prototype. We then carried out a user study and ran statistical analyses to test if children would perceive the game scenarios as intended by scenario designers in terms of conflict....

  17. Modeling of acoustic wave propagation and scattering for telemetry of complex structures; Modelisation de la propagation et de l'interaction d'une onde acoustique pour la telemetrie de structures complexes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LU, B.

    2011-11-07

    ) using a procedure similar to the physical theory of diffraction (PTD). The refined KA provides an improvement of the prediction in the near field of a rigid scatterer. The initial (non refined) KA model is then extended to deal with the scattering from a finite impedance target. The obtained model, the so-called 'general' KA model, is a satisfactory solution for the application to telemetry. Finally, the coupling of the stochastic propagation model and the general KA diffraction model has allowed us to build a complete simulation tool for the telemetry in an inhomogeneous medium. (author) [French] Cette etude s'inscrit dans le cadre du developpement d'outils de simulation de la telemetrie qui est une technique possible pour la surveillance et le controle periodique des reacteurs nucleaires a neutrons rapides refroidis par du sodium liquide (RNR-Na). De maniere generale, la telemetrie consiste a positionner au sein du reacteur un transducteur qui genere un faisceau ultrasonore. Ce faisceau se propage a travers un milieu inhomogene et aleatoire car le sodium liquide est le siege de fluctuations de temperature qui impliquent une variation de la celerite des ondes ultrasonores, ce qui modifie la propagation du faisceau. Ce dernier interagit ensuite avec une structure immergee dans le reacteur. La mesure du temps de vol de l'echo recu par le meme transducteur permet de determiner la position precise de la structure. La simulation complete de la telemetrie necessite donc la modelisation a la fois de la propagation d'une onde acoustique en milieu inhomogene aleatoire et de l'interaction de cette onde avec des cibles de formes variees; c'est l'objectif de ce travail. Un modele stochastique base sur un algorithme de type Monte-Carlo est tout d'abord developpe afin de simuler les perturbations aleatoires du champ de propagation. Le champ acoustique en milieu inhomogene est finalement modelise a partir du champ calcule dans un

  18. Climate change and growth scenarios for California wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.L. Westerling; B.P. Bryant; H.K. Preisler; T.P. Holmes; H.G. Hildalgo; T. Das; S.R. Shrestha

    2011-01-01

    Large wildfire occurrence and burned area are modeled using hydroclimate and landsurface characteristics under a range of future climate and development scenarios. The range of uncertainty for future wildfire regimes is analyzed over two emissions pathways (the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES] A2 and B1 scenarios); three global climate models (Centre...

  19. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  20. Interactive Scenario Visualization for User-Based Service Development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van 't Klooster, J.W.J.R.; van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Eliens, A.P.W.; Hermens, Hermanus J.

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are commonly used to develop new systems in multidisciplinary projects. However, written scenarios are sequential, not dynamic and often too abstract or difficult to understand for end users. The goal of this paper hence is to extend the use of scenarios in design methodologies, using an

  1. The Scenarios of Social Policy Development in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Svatošová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to create scenarios of possible development of social policy in the Czech Republic and evaluate the probability of each scenario. Based on the literature review and scenario method, three scenarios are created (scenario of a positive development, scenario of a negative development, and explorative scenario, which are compared with the current state of Czech social policy and which evaluate the possible development of Czech social policy in the period up to 2050. For the implementation of scenarios, basic factors that influence the development of Czech social policy are identified. The complementary research methods are creative methods brainstorming and mind mapping, modelling, an intuitive method of estimating trends and decision-making method of scoring. The research shows that the Czech social policy system is threatened without accepting the strategic and conceptual social policy solutions. The probability of the scenario of negative development (critical scenario of Czech social policy is more than ninety percent. This scenario is based on a deep economic crisis, the collapse of the entire system of social policy and great social unrest. The created scenarios are useful for actors of social policy which can reverse the negative development of Czech social policy.

  2. Random Scenario Generation for a Multiple Target Tracking Environment Evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hussain, Dil Muhammad Akbar

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents a simulation study on the generation of a random scenario for the performance of track splitting algorithm on a digital signal processor.  Much of the previous work [1] was done on specific (deterministic) scenarios. One of the reasons for considering the specific scenarios, wh...

  3. User constraints for reliable user-defined smart home scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Guilly, Thibaut; Nielsen, Michael Kvist; Pedersen, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Defining control scenarios in a smart home is a difficult task for end users. In particular, one concern is that user-defined scenarios could lead to unsafe or undesired state of the system. To help them explore scenario specifications, we propose in this paper a system that enables specification...

  4. Special Operations Reconnaissance (SOR) Scenario: Intelligence Analysis and Mission Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-04-15

    experience in intelligence analysis and mission planning, the SOR scenario was developed to serve as this environment. The scenario is intended to be... intelligence analysis and mission planning scenario that requires a team of three participants to work together to solve various problems in an

  5. Impacts des évolutions démographiques et climatiques sur la répartition spatiale des hommes, des tsé-tsé et des trypanosomoses en Afrique de l’Ouest*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courtin F.

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Les évolutions démographiques (population humaine multipliée par quatre en 50 ans, les changements climatiques et le développement économique survenus en Afrique de l’Ouest depuis maintenant un siècle ont profondément modifié le peuplement humain et les paysages dans lesquels il s’inscrit. Ces évolutions ne sont pas sans conséquences sur le complexe pathogène des trypanosomoses transmises par les glossines. En l’espace d’un siècle, la limite nord des tsé-tsé s’est déplacée vers le sud, accompagnant (mais à des échelles distinctes la descente des isohyètes et des foyers de maladie du sommeil, autrefois présents en savane et qui sont actuellement répartis en zone forestière et en zone de mangrove. On met en évidence un impact clair de la pression anthropique sur le recul des glossines du groupe morsitans, vecteurs majeurs des trypanosomoses animales. En revanche, les glossines du groupe palpalis (notamment Glossina palpalis s’adaptent aux fortes densités humaines et se maintiennent dans les plus grands centres urbains d’Afrique de l’Ouest, posant d’ailleurs la question du développement de foyers urbains dans les années à venir, comme en témoigne l’exemple récent de Kinshasa. L’étude des facteurs humains (dynamiques de peuplement et environnementaux (changements climatiques et leurs impacts dans l’espace et dans le temps, corrélée à celle des trypanosomoses et de leurs vecteurs devra permettre la mise en évidence des combinaisons spatiales capables d’expliquer la présence/absence de la maladie dans le but d’orienter les zones d’intervention médicale et anti-vectorielle. Ce type d’étude pourra être étendu à d’autres pathologies transmises par des vecteurs.

  6. Various problems in lunar habitat construction scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nitta, Keiji; Ohtsubo, Koji; Oguchi, Mitsuo; Ohya, Haruhiko; Kanbe, Seiichiro; Ashida, Akira; Sano, Kenichi

    1991-10-01

    Many papers describing the lunar base construction have been published previously. Lunar base has been considered to be a useful facility to conduct future scientific programs and to get new nuclear energy resource, namely 3He, for defending the environmental collapse on Earth and also to develop lunar resources such as oxygen and nitrogen for extending human activities in space more economically. The scale of the lunar base and the construction methods adopted are determined by the scenario of a lunar utilization program but constrained by the availability of the established space transportation technologies. As indicated in the scenarios described in papers regarding lunar base construction, the first steps of lunar missions are the investigation of lunar itself for conducting scientific research and for surveying the lunar base construction sites, the second steps are the outpost construction for conducting man-tended missions, for more precise scientific research and studying the lunar base construction methods, and third steps are the construction of a permanent base and the expansion of this lunar base for exploiting lunar resources. The missions within the first and second steps are all possible using the ferry (OTV) similar to the service and command modules of Apollo Spacecraft because all necessary weights to be landed on the lunar surface for these missions seem to be under the equivalent weight of the Apollo Lunar Lander. On the other hand, the permanent facilities constructed on the lunar surface in the third step requires larger quantities of construction materials to be transported from Earth, and a new ferry (advanced OTV) having higher transportation ability, at least above 6 times, compared with Apollo Service and Command Modules, are to be developed. The largest problems in the permament lunar base construction are related to the food production facilities, 30-40 m 2 plant cultivation area per person are required for providing the nutrition

  7. New trends in transportation and land use scenario planning : five case studies of regional and local scenario planning efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    This report summarizes important findings from a literature review on scenario planning processes and a scan of stakeholders. It also presents case studies on innovative, next generation scenario planning efforts. The project team defined next ...

  8. Judgments of culpability in a filicide scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Christopher J; Miller-Stratton, Heather; Heinrich, Emily; Fritz, Stacey; Smith, Shawn

    2008-01-01

    Previous research has indicated that potential jurors are likely to use personal biases, such as those based on gender and ethnicity, in their judgments of culpability of criminal defendants in addition to, or instead of, the facts of the crime. The present paper seeks to extend this literature to the crime of filicide; to examine whether male defendants are judged more harshly than female defendants, as is the case for domestic violence and sexual abuse. 214 participants were provided with a scenario of filicide in which the gender of the perpetrator, the gender of the child, and the family's social class were randomly assigned. Participants were asked to rate the culpability of the defendant in the case. Results indicated that, unlike for other violent crimes, participants did not use gender or social class biases in their judgments of criminal culpability.

  9. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  10. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network"

    CERN Document Server

    Carvalho, Alexsandro M

    2012-01-01

    The structure of sexual contacts, its contacts network and its temporal interactions, play an important role in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, that kind of data is very hard to obtain. One of the few exceptions is the "Romantic network" which is a complete structure of a real sexual network of a high school. In terms of topology, unlike other sexual networks classified as scale-free network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have effects on diffusion through networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes.With the aim to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI in it, we perform simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve in time. In the static case, we compare the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. We further...

  11. Conditional steering under the von Neumann scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Kaushiki; Paul, Biswajit; Karmakar, Sumana; Sarkar, Debasis; Mukherjee, Amit; Bhattacharya, Some Sankar; Roy, Arup

    2017-08-01

    In Phys. Lett. A 166, 293 (1992), 10.1016/0375-9601(92)90711-T, Popescu and Rohrlich characterized nonlocality of pure n -partite entangled systems by studying bipartite violation of local realism when n -2 number of parties perform projective measurements on their particles. A pertinent question in this scenario is whether similar characterization is possible for n -partite mixed entangled states also. In the present work we have followed an analogous approach so as to explore whether given a tripartite mixed entangled state the conditional bipartite states obtained by performing projective measurement on the third party demonstrate a weaker form of nonlocality, quantum steering. We also compare this phenomenon of conditional steering with existing notions of tripartite correlations.

  12. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  13. LCA Modeling of Waste Management Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2011-01-01

    Lifecycle assessment (LCA) modeling provides a quantitative statement about resource issues and environmental issues in waste management useful in evaluating alternative management systems and in mapping where major loads and savings take place within existing systems. Chapter 3.1 describes...... the concepts behind LCA modeling and Chapter 3.2 gives an overview of existing models and shows examples of their application. A recent comprehensive review of publicly available LCA studies (WRAP, 2006) concluded that, on a material basis, LCA modeling in general confirms the validity of the waste hierarchy...... and exchange with the energy systems, a comparison of results was hampered on a system level. In addition, differences in waste composition may affect the LCA results. This chapter provides results of LCA modeling of 40 waste management scenarios handling the same municipal waste (MSW) and using different...

  14. PLASMIX management: LCA of six possible scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cossu, R; Garbo, F; Girotto, F; Simion, F; Pivato, A

    2017-11-01

    Only a small percentage of the separately collected plastic is recycled. The mechanical selection process of source segregated plastic materials generates considerable amounts of residues that are commonly named as Plasmix. By means of a life cycle assessment (LCA) modelling, the environmental performances of the main Plasmix management options (thermal treatment, energy recovery, and landfilling) were compared. Six treatment scenarios, with different pre-treatment alternatives, were evaluated. Landfilling after waste washing and Plasmix substitution of coke in a blast furnace represent the most favorable options, since the performances of thermal treatment and energy recovery are worsened by specific emissions of a variety of toxic compounds and heavy metals within plastic materials as additives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo. c2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Romem

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

    HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

    The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

    The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

  17. Future electric scenarios for urban logistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-07-01

    This report is produced by the SAFE Urban Logistics project - a Norden Energy and Transport project that aims to study and analyse the prospect of integrating electric vehicles in the goods distribution of urban areas. The goal of the project is to create next practice solutions, offer promising opportunities for urban logistics operations, in order to become both more efficient and more environmentally sustainable. The SAFE Urban Logistics aims to match business models for making the application of electric vehicles within inner city logistics happen. The project will also create proposals for sustainable suitable technical solutions associated with these business models. This is one out of four reports produced by the project. Read more about the project and get access to all the reports on www.safeproject.eu. This report is the final output of the project and describes four scenarios for the future of urban logistics based on the urbanization and potential political interventions. The described scenarios will be evaluated on environmental effects and describe a potential idea that can bring this future one step closer. An array of potential business and logistics models as well as technical solutions that could be applied in order to integrate EV's on a larger basis are added at the end of the document. It is supposed to act as inspiration for the strategic development of logistics companies as well as local and governmental policies. Knowledge and experiences in this report are mainly taken from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. When it comes to logistic recommendations and experiences, influence from other parts of Europe have also been included. (Author)

  18. ECRH and ECCD scenarios for W7-X

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laqua H.P.

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The main ECRH scenarios for the W7-X Stellarator are described. Both X2 (low and moderate densities and O2 scenarios (high density have been studied. Since O2 scenario cannot be realized without pre-heating, transition from X2 to O2 scenarios has been discussed. Due to a lack of Ohmic transformer, only ECCD is available for compensating the bootstrap current and for controlling the edge rotational transform value. The efficiency of ECCD for all main scenarios has been estimated. All simulations have been performed by a 1D transport code coupled self-consistently with ray-tracing code.

  19. FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serhiy Nozhenko

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry.

  20. Quantification of Scenario Distance within Generic WINNER Channel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Narandžić

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Starting from the premise that stochastic properties of a radio environment can be abstracted by defining scenarios, a generic MIMO channel model is built by the WINNER project. The parameter space of the WINNER model is, among others, described by normal probability distributions and correlation coefficients that provide a suitable space for scenario comparison. The possibility to quantify the distance between reference scenarios and measurements enables objective comparison and classification of measurements into scenario classes. In this paper we approximate the WINNER scenarios with multivariate normal distributions and then use the mean Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify their divergence. The results show that the WINNER scenario groups (A, B, C, and D or propagation classes (LoS, OLoS, and NLoS do not necessarily ensure minimum separation within the groups/classes. Instead, the following grouping minimizes intragroup distances: (i indoor-to-outdoor and outdoor-to-indoor scenarios (A2, B4, and C4, (ii macrocell configurations for suburban, urban, and rural scenarios (C1, C2, and D1, and (iii indoor/hotspot/microcellular scenarios (A1, B3, and B1. The computation of the divergence between Ilmenau and Dresden measurements and WINNER scenarios confirms that the parameters of the C2 scenario are a proper reference for a large variety of urban macrocell environments.

  1. Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Baxter, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    In the paper the first attempt at the definition of a model to assess the impact of a range of different volcanic hazards on the building structures is presented. This theoretical approach has been achieved within the activities of the EXPLORIS Project supported by the EU. A time history for Sub-Plinian I eruptive scenario of the Vesuvius is assumed by taking advantage of interpretation of historical reports of volcanic crises of the past [Carafa, G. 1632. In opusculum de novissima Vesuvij conflagratione, epistola isagogica, 2 a ed. Napoli, Naples; Mascolo, G.B., 1634. De incendio Vesuvii excitato xvij. Kal. Ianuar. anno trigesimo primo sæculi Decimiseptimi libri X. Cum Chronologia superiorum incendiorum; & Ephemeride ultimi. Napoli; Varrone, S., 1634. Vesuviani incendii historiae libri tres. Napoli], numerical simulations [Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., Gidaspow, D., 2003. Multiparticle simulation of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 108, 2202. doi:10.1029/2001 JB000508; Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. HAZMAP: a computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31,837-845; Costa, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., 2006. A three-dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 241,634-647] and experts' elicitations [Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M. Coles, S.G. Connor, C.B. Connor, L.J. (Eds), Statistics in Volcanology. Geological Society of London on behalf of IAVCEI, pp.15-30; Woo, G., 1999. The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London] from which the impact on the building structures is derived. This is achieved by an original definition of vulnerability functions for multi-hazard input and a dynamic cumulative damage model. Factors affecting the variability of the final

  2. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  3. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Stephen; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    The surface of Mars once had abundant water flowing on its surface, but now there is a general perception that this surface is completely dry. Several lines of research have shown that there are sources of potentially large quantities of water at many locations on the surface, including regions considered as candidates for future human missions. Traditionally, system designs for these human missions are constrained to tightly recycle water and oxygen, and current resource utilization strategies involve ascent vehicle oxidizer production only. But the assumption of relatively abundant extant water may change this. Several scenarios were constructed to evaluate water requirements for human Mars expeditions to assess the impact to system design if locally produced water is available. Specifically, we have assessed water resources needed for 1) ascent vehicle oxidizer and fuel production, 2) open-loop water and oxygen life support requirements along with more robust usage scenarios, and 3) crew radiation protection augmentation. In this assessment, production techniques and the associated chemistry to transform Martian water and atmosphere into these useful commodities are identified, but production mass and power requirements are left to future analyses. The figure below illustrates the type of water need assessment performed and that will be discussed. There have been several sources of feedstock material discussed in recent literature that could be used to produce these quantities of water. This paper will focus on Mars surface features that resemble glacier-like forms on Earth. Several lines of evidence indicate that some of these features are in fact buried ice, likely remnants from an earlier ice age on Mars. This paper examines techniques and hardware systems used in the polar regions of Earth to access this buried ice and withdraw water from it. These techniques and systems will be described to illustrate options available. A technique known as a Rodriguez Well

  4. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Stephen J.; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, B. Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    In an on-going effort to make human Mars missions more affordable and sustainable, NASA continues to investigate the innovative leveraging of technological advances in conjunction with the use of accessible Martian resources directly applicable to these missions. One of the resources with the broadest utility for human missions is water. Many past studies of human Mars missions assumed a complete lack of water derivable from local sources. However, recent advances in our understanding of the Martian environment provides growing evidence that Mars may be more "water rich" than previously suspected. This is based on data indicating that substantial quantities of water are mixed with surface regolith, bound in minerals located at or near the surface, and buried in large glacier-like forms. This paper describes an assessment of what could be done in a "water rich" human Mars mission scenario. A description of what is meant by "water rich" in this context is provided, including a quantification of the water that would be used by crews in this scenario. The different types of potential feedstock that could be used to generate these quantities of water are described, drawing on the most recently available assessments of data being returned from Mars. This paper specifically focuses on sources that appear to be buried quantities of water ice. (An assessment of other potential feedstock materials is documented in another paper.) Technologies and processes currently used in terrestrial Polar Regions are reviewed. One process with a long history of use on Earth and with potential application on Mars - the Rodriguez Well - is described and results of an analysis simulating the performance of such a well on Mars are presented. These results indicate that a Rodriguez Well capable of producing the quantities of water identified for a "water rich" human mission are within the capabilities assumed to be available on the Martian surface, as envisioned in other comparable Evolvable

  5. Simulation of climate changes during the 21. century including stratospheric ozone; Simulation des changements climatiques au cours du 21. siecle incluant l'ozone stratospherique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Royer, J.F.; Cariolle, D.; Chauvin, F.; Deque, M.; Douville, H.; Rong-Ming, Hu; Planton, S.; Rascol, A.; Ricard, J.L.; Salas Y Melia, D.; Sevault, F.; Simon, P.; Somot, S.; Tyteca, S. [Meteo-France, CNRM/GMGEC, 31 - Toulouse (France); Terray, L.; Valcke, S. [Cerfacs, 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2002-03-01

    Two climate simulations of 150 years, performed with a coupled ocean/sea-ice/atmosphere model including stratospheric ozone, respectively with and without heterogeneous chemistry, simulate the tropospheric warming associated with an increase of the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide and other trace gases since 1950 and their impact on sea-ice extent, as well as the stratospheric cooling and its impact on ozone concentration. The scenario with heterogeneous chemistry reproduces the formation of the ozone hole over the South Pole from the 1970's and its deepening until the present time, and shows that the ozone hole should progressively fill during the coming decades. (authors)

  6. Impact of climate change on heavy precipitation events of the Mediterranean basin; Impact du changement climatique sur les evenements de pluie intense du bassin mediterraneen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ricard, D.; Beaulant, A.L.; Deque, M.; Ducrocq, V.; Joly, A.; Joly, B.; Martin, E.; Nuissier, O.; Quintana Segui, P.; Ribes, A.; Sevault, F.; Somot, S. [Meteo-France et CNRS, Groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (GAME), 31 - Toulouse (France); Boe, J. [California Univ., Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2009-11-15

    A second topic covered by the CYPRIM project aims to characterize the evolution of heavy precipitation events in Mediterranean in the context of climate change. To this end, a continuous climate simulation from 1960 to 2099 has been run using a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model under IPCC A2 emission scenario. Various techniques of down-scaling, down to the very fine 2 km scale, and methods to highlight synoptic environments favourable to heavy rain, have been used to estimate the impact of climate change on precipitation and hydrology over South-East France, both for the whole autumn season and the heavy rain events. (authors)

  7. Interactive Language Learning through Speech-Enabled Virtual Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hazel Morton

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the evaluation of an educational game designed to give learners of foreign languages the opportunity to practice their spoken language skills. Within the speech interactive Computer-Assisted Language Learning (CALL program, scenarios are presented in which learners interact with virtual characters in the target language using speech recognition technology. Two types of interactive scenarios with virtual characters are presented as part of the game: the one-to-one scenarios which take the form of practice question and answer scenarios where the learner interacts with one virtual character and the interactive scenario which is an immersive contextualised scenario where the learner interacts with two or more virtual characters within the scene to complete a (task-based communicative goal. The study presented here compares learners’ subjective attitudes towards the different scenarios. In addition, the study investigates the performance of the speech recognition component in this game. Forty-eight students of English as a Foreign Language (EFL took part in the evaluation. Results indicate that learners’ subjective ratings for the contextualised interactive scenario are higher than for the one-to-one, practice scenarios. In addition, recognition performance was better for these interactive scenarios.

  8. The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chai, W.T, E-mail: wtchai@ipp.ac.cn [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Xiao, B.J [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R. [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China)

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

  9. Lunar Outpost and its construction scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwata, Tsutomu; Nakamura, Tetsuya; Yuzawa, Yoshinori; Horie, Michihiko; Amagata, Raita; Honda, Tetsuya

    A Lunar Outpost (LO) is a man-tended frontier facility that Japan may construct on the lunar mare in around 2010. The objective of the Lunar Outpost is to perform various experiments such as observation, material procesing, life science missions during the shorttime period. It will be a demonstration project for the permanently manned Lunar Base (LB). The Lunar Outpost has three major missions. The primary misssion to be a precursor of the manned Lunar Base. The secondary mission is to verify technologies required for the manned Lunar Base. The tertiary mission is to conduct experiments including lunar resource utilizations and adaptability of human beings to the lunar environment. The period of LO operations will be limited to three years. The first year is a construction phases and covers five lunar landings. The second and third years are the man-tended operational phase in which experiments and observation will be conducted on the lunar surface. There will be a total of nine lunar landings; three cargo landings and six passenger landings. Three crew members will stay at the LO for tend days for each passenger landing. The system structure and functions of the subsystems are described. A configuration of the LO which satisfies the missions and systems requirements is proposed. The configuration consists of a Habitation Module, a Laboratory/Logistics Module, an Electric Module, and a Rover with Airlock. A construction scenario is written to transport and integrate these elements.

  10. Adapting water allocation management to drought scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Giacomelli

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change dynamics have significant consequences on water resources on a watershed scale. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variation, the planning and reallocation decisions in watershed management need to be reviewed. This research focuses on an in-depth understanding of the current allocation balance of water resources among competitors, placed along the course of the Adda River. In particular, during the summer period, the demand for water dramatically increases. This is due to the increase in irrigation activities in the lower part of the basin and to the highest peaks of tourist inflow, in the Como Lake and Valtellina areas. Moreover, during these months, the hydroelectric reservoirs in the upper part of the Adda River basin (the Valtellina retain most of the volume of water coming from the snow and glacier melt. The existing allocation problem among these different competing users is exacerbated by the decreasing water supplies. The summer of 2003 testified the rise in a number of allocation problems and situations of water scarcity that brought about environmental and economical consequences. The RICLIC project is committed to the understanding of water dynamics on a regional scale, to quantify the volumes involved and offer local communities an instrument to improve a sustainable water management system, within uncertain climate change scenarios.

  11. Technological mediation: new scenarios for teaching practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry Alfonso Muñoz Rojas

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this article is to elucidate and reflect on the dimensions configured in a transformation of teaching practices. Such practices can lead to set new educational scenarios based on technological mediation. This paper is the result of a qualitative analysis of concepts referred to in researches between 2009 and 2013. Likewise it makes part of the project: ‘Theoretical Approaches of Research Projects on Mediation of Information and Communication Technologies: A Configuration for a Conceptual Approach’, product of the announcement # 9 by Universidad Santo Tomas’ Distance Learning – Open University Vice Chancellor Office (VUAD. It is inquired, among other emerging categories, about autonomous and collaborative learning, the role of online tutors, the social, teaching, and cognitive presence, the collective intelligence and the digital education. Methodologically dissertation was based on the use of ATLAS.ti – program that strengthened the process of ordering and organizing the information from various sources, and helped to determine the categorization and construction of semantic maps. Finally, conclusions and questions about prospects for technology and education are presente.

  12. Effective Scenarios for Exploring Asteroid Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Pamela E.; Clark, C.; Weisbin, C.

    2010-10-01

    In response to the proposal that asteroids be the next targets for exploration, we attempt to develop scenarios for exploring previously mapped asteroid 433 Eros, harnessing our recent experience gained planning such activity for return to the lunar surface. The challenges faced in planning Apollo led to the development of a baseline methodology for extraterrestrial field science. What `lessons learned’ can be applied for asteroids? Effective reconnaissance (advanced mapping at deep regolith (ponds). Unlike the Moon, an asteroid lacks sufficient gravity and most likely the necessary stability to support `normal’ driving or walking. In fact, the crew delivery vehicle might not even be `tetherable’ and would most likely `station keep’ to maintain a position. The most convenient local mobility mechanism for astronauts/robots would be `hand over hand’ above the surface at a field station supplemented by a `tetherless’ (small rocket-pack) control system for changing station or return to vehicle. Thus, we assume similar mobility constraints (meters to hundreds of meters at a local station, kilometers between stations) as those used for Apollo. We also assume the vehicle could `station keep’ at more than one location separated by tens of kilometers distance.

  13. Nonlocal correlations in a macroscopic measurement scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunkri, Samir; Banik, Manik; Ghosh, Sibasish

    2017-02-01

    Nonlocality is one of the main characteristic features of quantum systems involving more than one spatially separated subsystem. It is manifested theoretically as well as experimentally through violation of some local realistic inequality. On the other hand, classical behavior of all physical phenomena in the macroscopic limit gives a general intuition that any physical theory for describing microscopic phenomena should resemble classical physics in the macroscopic regime, the so-called macrorealism. In the 2-2-2 scenario (two parties, with each performing two measurements and each measurement having two outcomes), contemplating all the no-signaling correlations, we characterize which of them would exhibit classical (local realistic) behavior in the macroscopic limit. Interestingly, we find correlations which at the single-copy level violate the Bell-Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt inequality by an amount less than the optimal quantum violation (i.e., Cirel'son bound 2 √{2 } ), but in the macroscopic limit gives rise to a value which is higher than 2 √{2 } . Such correlations are therefore not considered physical. Our study thus provides a sufficient criterion to identify some of unphysical correlations.

  14. LHC Installation Scenarios and Dynamic Aperture

    CERN Document Server

    Fartoukh, Stéphane David

    2000-01-01

    The nominal installation strategy of the LHC assumes that each of the 8 arcs of the ring will be equipped with dipoles coming from the same production line. One of the main arguments used to justify this option was the possibility to compensate most of the non-linearities induced by the dipole field errors via a single corrector circuit per arc and per multipole. Indeed, assuming small variations from magnet to magnet within a given production line, the multipolar components of the main dipoles appear as a systematic per arc in this scenario, which, de facto, guarantees their correctability even with a small number of corrector families. All the tracking studies done so far have used this installation scheme to model the field imperfections of the main LHC magnets. According to latest error tables, with the improvement of the dipole field quality, the uncertainty on the systematic field errors per production line has been strongly reduced and becomes quite comparable or even lower than the random multipolar c...

  15. Inflationary scenario from higher curvature warped spacetime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banerjee, Narayan [Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata, Department of Physical Sciences, Nadia, West Bengal (India); Paul, Tanmoy [Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science, Department of Theoretical Physics, Kolkata (India)

    2017-10-15

    We consider a five dimensional warped spacetime, in presence of the higher curvature term like F(R) = R + αR{sup 2} in the bulk, in the context of the two-brane model. Our universe is identified with the TeV scale brane and emerges as a four dimensional effective theory. From the perspective of this effective theory, we examine the possibility of ''inflationary scenario'' by considering the on-brane metric ansatz as an FRW one. Our results reveal that the higher curvature term in the five dimensional bulk spacetime generates a potential term for the radion field. Due to the presence of radion potential, the very early universe undergoes a stage of accelerated expansion and, moreover, the accelerating period of the universe terminates in a finite time. We also find the spectral index of curvature perturbation (n{sub s}) and the tensor to scalar ratio (r) in the present context, which match with the observational results based on the observations of Planck (Astron. Astrophys. 594, A20, 2016). (orig.)

  16. Scenario of Architectural Education in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dua, S.; Chahal, K. S.

    2014-09-01

    The dictionary meaning of education is to develop mentally and morally. A good holistic architectural education, therefore, is a combination of skills, information, as well as values. It is somewhat unique. The evaluation process is continuous in nature and in addition to the traditional means of assessment, the training in architectural education consists of varied interrelated parts-theory, field visit and studio/workshop. To certain extent the subjective nature of the design studio projects provides challenges and opportunities for both students and faculty members, in terms of acquiring necessary skills at the part of the students, and, necessity to update and upgrade continually with the changing pace at the part of the teachers. Technology continues to grow at a rapid pace; equipping the students to meet the complex demands of the profession; the curriculum structure and focus and value system must facilitate the relationship between general education and specialized study. Architects must acquire and understand the required information and find ways to put it in order and apply it to particular settings especially in this era of MNCs and BPOs. The paper discusses the current scenario of architectural education in India and affirms the need for change in this education from generalized study which had been in practice in twentieth century to a more relevant, specialised, and value-based education addressing technical and humanistic challenges more objectively in these vastly changing, socio-economic and political trends at global and regional levels.

  17. Scenarios for upgrading the LHC injectors

    CERN Document Server

    Garoby, R

    2007-01-01

    The presence of a powerful accelerator complex that could serve as injector has been instrumental in the decision to build the LHC at CERN. This existing complex has now confirmed its capability, having demonstrated that it is able to deliver beam with the nominal characteristics as well as numerous other types of beams which will be essential for tuning-in, commissioning and operating the future collider for physics in its first years. However it is also clear that the existing LHC injectors will not be able to deliver beam with the ultimate characteristics and that they suffer from reliability problems due to their age. An analysis has therefore been done by the working group in charge of "Proton Accelerators of the Future" (PAF) to determine a logical evolution of the accelerator complex, considering the needs of LHC and of the other potential future physics experiments at CERN. As a result, scenarios for a staged upgrade have been proposed, involving the progressive replacement of all the low energy accel...

  18. Nuclear energy education scenario around the world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barabas, Roberta de Carvalho; Sabundjian, Gaiane, E-mail: praroberta@uol.com.br, E-mail: gdjian@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Nuclear energy has been used as a source of clean energy with many benefits. Nevertheless, it is still addressed with prejudice. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II (1945), the Three Mile Island accident (1979), Chernobyl accident (1986), the crash of the cesium-137 in Goiana, Brazil (1987), and the recent accident in Fukushima (2011) may have been responsible for the negative image of nuclear energy. Researches on education have been conducted with students concerning the conceptual and practical issues of nuclear energy. This work aims to review the literature about nuclear energy education around the world in both, elementary school and high school. Since most educational researches on nuclear energy were published after 1980, this literature review covered the researches that have been published since 1980. The data were presented in chronological order. The results from the literature review provided a clear visualization of the global nuclear energy educational scenario, showing that the theme is still addressed with prejudice due to an incorrect view of nuclear energy and a limited view of its benefits. Concerning the science textbooks, the literature reports that the theme should be better addressed, encouraging students to research more about it. The data from this literature review will serve as a reference for a future proposal for a teaching training program for Brazilian science/physics high school teachers using a new teaching approach. (author)

  19. HYPERSPECTRAL ANOMALY DETECTION IN URBAN SCENARIOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Rejas Ayuga

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We have studied the spectral features of reflectance and emissivity in the pattern recognition of urban materials in several single hyperspectral scenes through a comparative analysis of anomaly detection methods and their relationship with city surfaces with the aim to improve information extraction processes. Spectral ranges of the visible-near infrared (VNIR, shortwave infrared (SWIR and thermal infrared (TIR from hyperspectral data cubes of AHS sensor and HyMAP and MASTER of two cities, Alcalá de Henares (Spain and San José (Costa Rica respectively, have been used. In this research it is assumed no prior knowledge of the targets, thus, the pixels are automatically separated according to their spectral information, significantly differentiated with respect to a background, either globally for the full scene, or locally by image segmentation. Several experiments on urban scenarios and semi-urban have been designed, analyzing the behaviour of the standard RX anomaly detector and different methods based on subspace, image projection and segmentation-based anomaly detection methods. A new technique for anomaly detection in hyperspectral data called DATB (Detector of Anomalies from Thermal Background based on dimensionality reduction by projecting targets with unknown spectral signatures to a background calculated from thermal spectrum wavelengths is presented. First results and their consequences in non-supervised classification and extraction information processes are discussed.

  20. Future seasonal climate change scenarios for Taiwan using a climate scenario generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tfwala, Samkele; Chen, Su-Chin

    2017-04-01

    Decision makers, resource managers and engineers demand accurate information regarding future changes in climate and variability to better forecast potential impacts. To acquire information about climate change, dedicated experiments using global and regional climate models are needed. These demand considerable computing capacity and expertise. This study explores the use of simple climate change scenario generators in developing future changes of climate change at national level. Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGGIC) combined with a scenario generator (SCENGEN) is applied. MAGGIC/SCENGEN use results from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 - CMIP3 and IPCC fourth assessment report, working group 1 - AR4). Eighteen general circulation models (GCMs) were evaluated based on global and regional performance. From these, 5 models were selected to predict future changes for Taiwan. The models predict temperature increase in all seasons with a high magnitude (3.16 °C) in June-July-August (JJA) season. Precipitation changes vary widely; generally, there is a decline in December-January-February (DJF), March-April-May (MAM) and September-October-November (SON). A significant decline, -8.8 % and -16 %, is observed in MAM by 2020 and 2100, respectively. The study reveals that simple climate change scenarios can be used to predict future changes.

  1. Impacts du changement climatique sur l'hydrologie et la gestion des ressources en eau du bassin de la Meuse (synthèse bibliographique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bauwens, A.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Impacts of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources management in the Meuse catchment. A review. This review examines the consequences of climate change on the hydrology of the Meuse catchment and on various water-related socio-economic sectors. It sums up the different modeling approaches in hydrological modeling, placing emphasis on current modeling assumptions and the restrictions inherent within them. It is useful to consider land use evolution and adapted management within the context of climate change, particularly with reference to agriculture. More specifically, a broader usage of physically-based hydrological models would be useful in order to represent climate change scenarios and possible adaptation tracks at the catchment scale. These physically-based hydrological models are able to represent a wide range of phenomena occurring in the water-soil-plant continuum. They thus allow a refinement of global hydrological solutions at the catchment scale, especially during low flow periods. Moreover, such models pave the way for the analysis of scenarios aimed at creating adaptation in the use and management of soils.

  2. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the conterminous US to the year 2100 as part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. The report was prepared by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) of the Office of Research and Development (ORD) at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The ICLUS report describes the methods used to develop land-use scenarios by decade from the year 2000 to 2100 that are consistent with these storylines.

  3. Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

    1978-03-01

    This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

  4. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles N.; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other

  5. Propagation models for non line-of-sight scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasu, A. S.; Anchidin, L.; Tamas, R.; Petrescu, T.

    2016-12-01

    The log-normal propagation model is usually applied for scenarios including a line-of-sight path. However, there are many cases that do not include such a propagation path, e.g. indoor transmission and disaster situations, when radio waves have to penetrate trough ruins. In this paper, we show that the log-normal model can also be applied for non line-of-sight transmission. Both indoor scenario and trough-ruins scenario, are investigated.

  6. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gayle, Thomas R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Oppel III, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  7. The Brazilian external individual monitoring scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mauricio, Claudia L.P.; Silva, Claudio R. da; Cunha, Paulo G. da, E-mail: claudia@ird.gov.br, E-mail: cribeiro@ird.gov.br, E-mail: pcunha@ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    In order to improve radiation protection it is necessary to have knowledge of the occupational radiation dose levels in all radiation facilities. This information comes from individual monitoring services, which are responsible for measuring and providing information about workers' radiation exposure. In 1981, the Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN) of Brazil starts to develop a comprehensive system for regulation and storage of occupational radiation dose. This paper starts with an overview of the evolution of the Brazilian authorization and data storage system for external individual monitoring. It starts with a rule for authorization of all Brazilian photon individual monitoring services and the obligation for them to send the measured dose to CNEN. Up to now there is no regulation for neutron individual monitoring. The aim of this paper is to present the current scenario of the Brazilian external monitoring system, reinforcing its importance and remaining problems. The number of monitored workers greatly increases every year, having surpassed 150,000 people monitored. The stored data show that the mean annual occupational external dose is decreasing from 2.4 mSv in 1987 to about 0.6 mSv, in 2012, but there is still some not realistic very high dose measured (higher than 100 mSv), without investigation. About 80% of the annual dose values are lower than the monthly register level. As expected, the higher real photon doses are found in Nuclear Medicine, Industrial Radiology and Interventional Radiology. All recorded annual neutron dose values are lower than 20 mSv. (author)

  8. Long-Term Scenario of International Developments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey I. Podberezkin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an approach to long-term scenario building in international relations, based on the analysis of changes in the dialectics of war and peace. Long-term trends in the development of forms and manifestations of violence in international relations, as well as the methods and approaches to its control and management determines the development of international relations. In solving the methodological problem of long-term forecasting, it must be as-sumed that the mere mechanical extrapolation even in the medium term has no meaning. The key current trend in terms of political violence is a blurring of the distinction between war and peace. This trend can be described as networking of war. Network war theory is a model of military strategy in the context of postmodernism. As a model of the new economy based on information and high technologies demonstrates its superiority over traditional capitalist and socialist models of the industrial age, and network war claims qualitative superiority over previous strategic concept of the industrial era. In modern political networks violent and non-violent instruments of influence co-exist in undifferentiated form. Network politics becomes total. Victory in the network war is the fact that the opponent should become part of the network. Since the network is formed around shared values, the network war can be reduced to a war of values. The clash between the networks will most likely wear un-compromising nature, so that in the end there will be only one network. Uncompromising network war is like the uncompromising religious wars and clashes of civilizations.

  9. Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael T.; Chang, Zheng; Link, Robert P.; Clarke, Leon E.; Maciejewski, Ross

    2017-10-01

    Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchical clustering approach.

  10. Model-Based Military Scenario Management for Defence Capability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gori, Ronnie; Chen, Pin; Pozgay, Angela

    2004-01-01

    .... This paper describes initial work towards the development of an information model that links scenario and capability related information, and the results of capability analysis and experimentation...

  11. VEMAP 2: U.S. Annual Climate Change Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Data sets of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient climate experiments with transient...

  12. Effects of exemplar scenarios on public preferences for energy futures using the my2050 scenario-building tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demski, Christina; Spence, Alexa; Pidgeon, Nick

    2017-03-01

    Understanding which energy future configurations provide publicly acceptable levels of energy security, affordability, and environmental protection is critical for institutional decision-making. However, little is known about how scenarios influence energy preferences. Here we present nationally representative UK data on public preferences for energy futures using the my2050 scenario-building tool that encourages engagement with the holistic complexities of system change. Engagement with the tool strengthened existing preferences for renewable energy and intentions to take personal action. Importantly, patterns of energy preferences were influenced by exemplar scenarios, which served as reference points that anchored choices. Carbon capture and storage, nuclear power, biofuels, and changes to heating and travel were particularly impacted by scenarios indicating uncertainty and ambivalence regarding these options. Scenarios (and scenario-building tools) are valuable for engaging citizens about future energy systems. However, care is required in their design and interpretation to reach robust conclusions about underlying preferences and acceptance.

  13. Future possible crop yield scenarios under multiple SSP and RCP scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakurai, G.; Yokozawa, M.; Nishimori, M.; Okada, M.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding the effect of future climate change on global crop yields is one of the most important tasks for global food security. Future crop yields would be influenced by climatic factors such as the changes of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. On the other hand, the effect of the changes of agricultural technologies such as crop varieties, pesticide and fertilizer input on crop yields have large uncertainty. However, not much is available on the contribution ratio of each factor under the future climate change scenario. We estimated the future global yields of four major crops (maize, soybean, rice and wheat) under three Shared Socio Economic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For this purpose, firstly, we estimated a parameter of a process based model (PRYSBI2) using a Bayesian method for each 1.125 degree spatial grid. The model parameter is relevant to the agricultural technology (we call "technological parameter" here after). Then, we analyzed the relationship between the values of technological parameter and GDP values. We found that the estimated values of the technological parameter were positively correlated with the GDP. Using the estimated relationship, we predicted future crop yield during 2020 and 2100 under SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios and RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. The estimated crop yields were different among SSP scenarios. However, we found that the yield difference attributable to SSPs were smaller than those attributable to CO2 fertilization effects and climate change. Particularly, the estimated effect of the change of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on global yields was more than four times larger than that of GDP for C3 crops.

  14. 2007 status of climate changes: synthesis report. Summary for policy-makers; Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: rapport de synthese. Resume a l'intention des decideurs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    This Synthesis Report is based on the assessment carried out by the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Topic 1 summarises observed changes in climate and their effects on natural and human systems, regardless of their causes, while topic 2 assesses the causes of the observed changes. Topic 3 presents projections of future climate change and related impacts under different scenarios. Topic 4 discusses adaptation and mitigation options over the next few decades and their interactions with sustainable development. Topic 5 assesses the relationship between adaptation and mitigation on a more conceptual basis and takes a longer-term perspective. Topic 6 summarises the major robust findings and remaining key uncertainties in this assessment.

  15. Impacts of climate change on wind energy resources in France: a regionalization study; Impacts du changement climatique sur le potentiel eolien en France: une etude de regionalisation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Najac, J.

    2008-11-15

    In this work, we study the impact of climate change on surface winds in France and draw conclusions concerning wind energy resources. Because of their coarse spatial resolution, climate models cannot properly reproduce the spatial variability of surface winds. Thus, 2 down-scaling methods are developed in order to regionalize an ensemble of climate scenarios: a statistical method based on weather typing and a statistic-dynamical method that resorts to high resolution mesoscale modelling. By 2050, significant but relatively small changes are depicted with, in particular, a decrease of the wind speed in the southern and an increase in the northern regions of France. The use of other down-scaling methods enables us to study several uncertainty sources: it appears that most of the uncertainty is due to the climate models. (author)

  16. Hybrid Scenario Development Methodology and Tool: An Arctic-Oriented Scenario Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-01

    pour aider les utilisateurs finaux (les chercheurs et scientifiques en matière de défense du CARO RDDC) dans leur volonté d’améliorer et d’appuyer...renseignements pour aider les utilisateurs finaux (les chercheurs et scientifiques en matière de défense de RDDC CARO) dans leur volonté d’améliorer et...include here abstracts in both official languages unless the text is bilingual.) Scenarios are the foundation of effective planning and training

  17. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garb, Yaakov [Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, 84990 (Israel); Pulver, Simone [Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); VanDeveer, Stacy D [Department of Political Science, University of New Hamsphire, Durham, NH 03824 (United States)], E-mail: stacy.vandeveer@unh.edu

    2008-10-15

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  18. New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

  19. Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Giovinazzo Spers

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006 was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM (WRIGHT, 1991 and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future", a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth" and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture". Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere.

  20. Process Risk Assessment using Dynamic Simulation of Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Kozin, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan

    2016-01-01

    (DES) of the scenarios, which is a Monte Carlo type method. The paper describes the application of DES to conduct the analysis part of a risk assessment that enables better time resolution in the modelling of the specific scenarios, simulate the interactions between concurrent chains of events under...

  1. Scenario Based E-Learning in Electrical Engineering Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tambunan, Hamonangan; Dalimunte, Amirhud; Silitonga, Marsangkap

    2017-01-01

    The scenario based e-learning in Electrical Engineering Education Learning (EEEL) was developed by covering the scope and characteristics of all subjects and the competence unit of graduates in the field of pedagogy, professional, social and personality, with url addresed http://jpte-ft-unimed.edu20.org. The scenario incorporates the concept of…

  2. Making scenarios for nature policy in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dammers, E.; Hinsberg, van A.; Vader, J.; Wiersinga, W.A.

    2012-01-01

    The subsequent building blocks of the scenario study enable policymakers to gradually gain insight into alternative desirable future states of nature and alternative policy-strategies to realize them. This is further stimulated by the character of the scenarios, which contain not only qualitative

  3. Risk Assessment Methodology for CO2 Storage: The Scenario Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wildenborg, A.F.B.; Leijnse, A.L.; Kreft, E.; Nepveu, M.N.; Obdam, A.N.M.; Orlic, B.; Wipfler, E.L.; Grift, B. van der; Kesteren, W. van; Gaus, I.; Czernichowski-Lauriol, I.; Torfs, P.; Wójcik, R.

    2005-01-01

    This chapter introduces a "scenario approach," which is used as a methodology for the long-term safety assessment of underground CO2 storage and to demonstrate its applicability in an example of safety assessment. This developed methodology consists of three main parts-scenario analysis, model

  4. USING UML SCENARIOS IN B2B SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Jakimi

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios has become a popular technique for requirements elicitation and specification building. Since scenarios capture only partial descriptions of the system behavior, an approach for scenario composition and/or integration is needed to produce more complete specifications. The Unified Modeling Language (UML, which has become a standard notation for object-oriented modeling, provides a suitable framework for scenario acquisition using Use Case diagrams and Sequence or Collaboration diagrams. In this paper, we suggest an algorithmic and tool support for composing and integrating scenarios that are represented in form of sequence diagrams. We suggest four operators (;: sequential operator, ||: concurrent operator, ?: conditional operator and  * :iteration operator to compose a set of scenarios that describe a use case of a given system. In this paper, we suggest also to apply the scenario approach to B2B systems (Business to Business. We propose to develop B2B systems as a three activities process deriving formal specifications and code skeletons from UML scenarios. Activities of this proposed process are generally automatic and are supported by a set of developed algorithms and tools.

  5. Visualization of Learning Scenarios with UML4LD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laforcade, Pierre

    2007-01-01

    Present Educational Modelling Languages are used to formally specify abstract learning scenarios in a machine-interpretable format. Current tooling does not provide teachers/designers with some graphical facilities to help them in reusing existent scenarios. They need human-readable representations. This paper discusses the UML4LD experimental…

  6. Communicating uncertainty in the IPCC's greenhouse gas emissions scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schenk, Niels J.; Lensink, Sander M.

    The issue of climate change required the development of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC. The complexity of the subject and the unique science-policy relation resulted in confusion and discussions appeared in popular media like The Economist. This paper reviews scenario

  7. Scenarios for the South African Water Sector in 2025

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-03-20

    Mar 20, 2012 ... Some of the recent scenario projects in the water sector include the. World Business Council for Sustainable Development report on 'Business in the world of water: WBCSD water scenarios to 2025' (WBCSD, 2006), and the Global Research Alliance. (GRA) report on Science and Technology-based Water ...

  8. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples. This report is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries r...

  9. Towards Agent-Based Scenario Development for Strategic Decision Support

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mensonides, Maarten; Huisman, Bob; Dignum, V.

    2008-01-01

    Scenario planning is a method for learning about the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting that future. However, most scenarios, being mostly stories, lack validation, dynamism and fail to acknowledge all relations between actors,

  10. Assessing Threat Detection Scenarios through Hypothesis Generation and Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Dog Day scenario .............................................................................................................. 9...Figure 1. Rankings of priority threats identified in the Dog Day scenario ............................... 9 Figure 2. Rankings of priority...making in uncertain environments relies heavily on pattern matching. Cohen, Freeman, and Wolf (1996) reported that features of the decision problem

  11. Scenario tree generation and multi-asset financial optimization problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2013-01-01

    We compare two popular scenario tree generation methods in the context of financial optimization: moment matching and scenario reduction. Using a simple problem with a known analytic solution, moment matching-when ensuring absence of arbitrage-replicates this solution precisely. On the other hand...

  12. Scenarios on future land changes in the West African Sahel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lambin, Eric; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise; Mertz, Ole

    2014-01-01

    In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed...

  13. Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biggs, R.; Raudsepp-Hearne, C.; Atkinson-Palombo, C.; Bohensky, E.; Boyd, E.; Cundill, G.; Fox, H.; Ingram, S.; Kok, K.; Spehar, S.; Tengö, M.; Timmer, D.; Zurek, M.

    2007-01-01

    Scenario analysis is a useful tool for exploring key uncertainties that may shape the future of social-ecological systems. This paper explores the methods, costs, and benefits of developing and linking scenarios of social-ecological systems across multiple spatial scales. Drawing largely on

  14. Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reinette Biggs

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Scenario analysis is a useful tool for exploring key uncertainties that may shape the future of social-ecological systems. This paper explores the methods, costs, and benefits of developing and linking scenarios of social-ecological systems across multiple spatial scales. Drawing largely on experiences in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, we suggest that the desired degree of cross-scale linkage depends on the primary aim of the scenario exercise. Loosely linked multiscale scenarios appear more appropriate when the primary aim is to engage in exploratory dialog with stakeholders. Tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios seem to work best when the main objective is to further our understanding of cross-scale interactions or to assess trade-offs between scales. The main disadvantages of tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios are that their development requires substantial time and financial resources, and that they often suffer loss of credibility at one or more scales. The reasons for developing multiscale scenarios and the expectations associated with doing so therefore need to be carefully evaluated when choosing the desired degree of cross-scale linkage in a particular scenario exercise.

  15. Family medicine in South Africa: exploring future scenarios | Mash ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The workshop led a group of 40 family physicians from academic, public and private sector settings through a scenario planning process developed by Clem Sunter and Chantell Ilbury. After an overview of the current situation the participants reached a consensus on the rules of the game, key uncertainties, future scenarios ...

  16. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy... REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of the analysis of human intrusion, DOE must...

  17. Electric Vehicles Scenarios and a Roadmap for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal

    This report is an attempt to look at the present EV landscape, recent developments in EV markets and the emergent EV technology research. The report analyses future scenarios of passenger transport in India with a specific focus on the role of EVs. The scenarios span from 2010 to 2035 and are ana...

  18. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    distribution functions. The latter have been placed and ultimately simulated on the inaccuracies of determining demand forecasts, i.e. leading to travel time savings and ticket revenues of the project. Finally, RSF makes use of scenario forecasting where trend scenarios such as economic growth and level...

  19. SITE-94. The central scenario for SITE-94: A climate change scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King-Clayton, L.M.; Chapman, N.A. [QuantiSci Ltd, Melton Mowbray (United Kingdom); Kautsky, F. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Svensson, N.O. [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Quaternary Geology; Marsily, G. de [Univ. VI Paris (France); Ledoux, E. [Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines, 77 - Fontainebleau (France)

    1995-12-01

    The central scenario includes the following main components: a deterministic description of the most probable climatic state for Sweden (with special ref. to the Aespoe area) for the next c. 120,000 years, a description of the likely nature of the surface and geological environment in the area at each stage of the climate sequence selected, and quantitative information on how these changes might affect the disposal system. The climate models suggest glacial maxima at c. 5, 20, 60 and 100 thousand years from now. The Aespoe region is predicted to be significantly affected by the latter three glacial episodes, with the ice sheet reaching and covering the area during the latter two episodes (by up to c 2200m and 1200m thickness of ice, resp.). Permafrost thicknesses over the next 120,000 years have been calculated. Assumptions, estimates and alternatives to the prescribed climate evolution are discussed. Following definition of a realistic, albeit non-unique, climate sequence, the objective of scenario development is to provide an indicator of the physical, chemical and hydrogeological conditions at the front of and beneath the advancing and retreating ice sheets, with the aim of identifying critical aspects for Performance Assessment modelling. The effect of various factors, such as ice loading, development of permafrost, temperature changes and sea level changes are considered in terms of their impact on hydrogeology, groundwater chemistry, rock stress and surface environments. 183 refs.

  20. Atlas du réchauffement climatique 1971-2010. Publié par Physio-Géo - collection Ouvrages, 2012, 122 p.En ligne sur : http://www.physio-geo.fr (onglet "Ouvrages".

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Claude Flageollet

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Cet atlas présente le réchauffement climatique récent, de 1971 à 2010, dans les terres émergées continentales et océaniques découpées en 39 régions dont, pour certaines d'entre elles, les limites sont proches des limites des régions climatiques du globe telles que définies et tracées par exemple par KÖPPEN et GEIGER. Les températures utilisées sont les moyennes annuelles empruntées à la base de données "Gistemp" de la NASA, complétées par calcul et par station. Dans chaque région, sont représentées graphiquement l'évolution des températures annuelles, selon l'environnement des stations, rural, urbain ou intermédiaire, ainsi que la valeur du réchauffement, par périodes pluri annuelles et décennales. En outre, les stations, classées en deux catégories en comparant leurs températures de 2009 et 2010, sont localisées sur des cartes à l'échelle de chaque continent. Quatre cartes régionales du réchauffement sont produites pour les périodes 1971-2010, 1981-2010, 1991-2010 et 2001­2010. Elles permettent de distinguer les régions en réchauffement et les régions en refroidissement, ces dernières concernant principalement les deux dernières décennies.This atlas presents the recent warming, from 1971 to 2010, in the continental and oceanic earth's land surface, divided into 39 regions which, for some of them, the limits are close to the earth's climatic regions defined and delineated by KÖPPEN and GEIGER. The temperatures used are annual averages taken from the "Gistemp" data base of the NASA, supplemented by calculation and by station. In each region, graphs and diagrams represent the evolution of annual temperatures as well as pluri-annual, decadal and multi decadal periods of warming, depending on the environment of stations: rural, urban or intermediate. In addition, the stations, divided into two categories by comparing their temperatures of 2009 and 2010, are located on each continent-scale maps. Four

  1. Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

    1997-11-01

    The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

  2. Research on response spectrum of dam based on scenario earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaoliang; Zhang, Yushan

    2017-10-01

    Taking a large hydropower station as an example, the response spectrum based on scenario earthquake is determined. Firstly, the potential source of greatest contribution to the site is determined on the basis of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Secondly, the magnitude and epicentral distance of the scenario earthquake are calculated according to the main faults and historical earthquake of the potential seismic source zone. Finally, the response spectrum of scenario earthquake is calculated using the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) relations. The response spectrum based on scenario earthquake method is less than the probability-consistent response spectrum obtained by PSHA method. The empirical analysis shows that the response spectrum of scenario earthquake considers the probability level and the structural factors, and combines the advantages of the deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methods. It is easy for people to accept and provide basis for seismic engineering of hydraulic engineering.

  3. SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Economic Impacts and Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

    2013-12-01

    Business interruption (BI) losses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario are derived from the forecasted physical damages of about 100 million at the Ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB), and 700 million in marina damages, and 2 billion in inundated property damages along the California coast. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction in California's gross domestic product (GDP). The analysis involves several steps. First, estimates are made of immediate business interruption losses due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of production. Second, total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by a general equilibrium (quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors through ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. Third, many types of resilience are applied to demonstrate their potential reductions of the impacts. At the Ports of LA and LB, a two-day port shutdown, cargo losses, and additional terminal downtimes would expose 1.2 billion of trade (import and export) value associated with over 4 billion of BI losses. The sectors potentially most affected by trade disruptions are leather, metal, and motor vehicle manufacturing. Excess capacity, inventories, export conversion, and conservation could reduce the direct trade impacts by 85%. Production recapture alone (including clearing the backlog of waiting ships) could reduce BI losses by 85%. The Port of LA commercial fishing would be subject to damages to the fleet, perished fish that cannot be landed, and lost fishing days. Although BI losses are relatively small, the southern Californian fishing sector could incur a 4% drop in output. The impacts would depend on the speed at which boats are repaired and whether lost fishing days can be made up. Ship-building and repair could also be negatively affected, but these impacts would be offset somewhat by reconstruction. Effects on commercial fishing in other locations

  4. Implications of climate change for downhill skiing in Quebec. Repercussions d'un changement climatique sur l'industrie du ski alpin au Quebec

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1988-01-01

    The main objective of this research was to evaluate the sensitivity of downhill skiing to eventual climatic change expected due to increasing levels of atmospheric CO/sub 2/ and other greenhouse gases. The first phase of the study consisted of identifying meteorological criteria relevant to the definition of skiable days. These criteria were subsequently applied to current climatic conditions; they were also applied to projected scenarios of climatic change in order to gauge the impacts of a warmer climate on the alpine ski industry. Preliminary socio-economic impact assessments were then made. Results show a decrease in the number of skiable days of 50% to 70% for southern Quebec; ski resorts equipped with snow-making devices would likely experience a smaller reduction in the number of skiable days ranging from 40% to 50%. Ski resorts in Eastern townships and the Laurentians would be unlikely to operate during the Christmas holidays without significant snow-making facilities. Considering that a day of skiing brings approximately $34 (1981) per person into the Quebec economy, a major revenue loss would result. 3 figs., 3 tabs.

  5. Modelling atmospheric circulations for the study of Alpine valleys pollution; Modelisation des circulations atmospheriques pour l'etude de la pollution des vallees alpines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brulfert, G.

    2004-11-15

    Local weather phenomena observed in alpine valleys frequently lead to the accumulation of emitted anthropogenic airborne species in the low layers of the atmosphere. The development of a numerical model allows reproducing the chemical evolution of air mass during POVA intensive period of observations. In Chamonix and Maurienne valley, computations of photochemical indicators (NO{sub y}, O{sub 3}/NO{sub z}, H{sub 2}O{sub 2}/HNO{sub 3}) prove the ozone regime to be control by volatile organic compounds. Moreover simulation highlighted that the major part of this secondary pollutant is regionally produced. The development of an indicator who localised ozone production sites can help to define abatement scenarios. The chemical mechanism RACM allows describing the evolution of many species. It is possible to conclude that in winter road traffic and heating are the main sources of volatile organic compounds. (author)

  6. Motor fuel demand analysis - applied modelling in the European union; Modelisation de la demande de carburant appliquee a l`europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chorazewiez, S

    1998-01-19

    Motor fuel demand in Europe amounts to almost half of petroleum products consumption and to thirty percent of total final energy consumption. This study considers, Firstly, the energy policies of different European countries and the ways in which the consumption of motor gasoline and automotive gas oil has developed. Secondly it provides an abstract of demand models in the energy sector, illustrating their specific characteristics. Then it proposes an economic model of automotive fuel consumption, showing motor gasoline and automotive gas oil separately over a period of thirty years (1960-1993) for five main countries in the European Union. Finally, forecasts of consumption of gasoline and diesel up to the year 2020 are given for different scenarios. (author) 330 refs.

  7. Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs

    2017-04-01

    The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed.

  8. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jerome; Brecha, Robert J.; Edmonds, James A.; Jiang, Kejun; Kriegler, Elmar; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Sferra, Fabio

    2016-06-01

    This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to include alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.

  9. Towards the new CH2018 climate scenarios for Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Schär, Christoph; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Knutti, Reto; Liniger, Mark; Strassmann, Kuno

    2017-04-01

    There is a growing demand for regional assessments of future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems to inform and facilitate appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are consistent and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). Since then, new climate model simulations have become available and the scientific understanding has improved. It is hence desirable to update these national scenarios. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS), a network consisting of several federal offices and academic partners. The CH2018 scenarios will build primarily upon the latest Euro-CORDEX regional climate model simulations assuming different pathways of future greenhouse gas concentrations. Compared to CH2011, more emphasis will be put on changes in extremes and in putting the projected changes in the context of observed variability. Results of a recently conducted survey on end-user needs in Switzerland will guide the development process toward the CH2018 scenarios. It ensures that the scenarios are presented and communicated in a user-oriented format and find a wide applicability across different sectors in Switzerland. In the presentation we will show the full methodological setup to generate the CH2018 scenarios and how consistency across the methods and products is maximized. First results on mean changes and selected indices will be presented. In terms of dissemination, the results of the user survey show the necessity to address all different user types of climate scenarios, especially the non-experts. Compared to CH2011, this implies a stronger focus on consulting, condensing complex information and providing tutorials. In the presentation, we will outline our plans on dissemination in order to adequately

  10. Marine storminess in the Mediterranean in future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lionello, P.

    2009-09-01

    This talk reviews the analysis that is presently available on marine storms, their climatology and change in future climate scenarios. The cyclones that are responsible for the storms are analyzed using a regional climate model simulations of present day (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100, A2 and B2 emission scenarios) and the differences between northern Europe and Mediterranean are discussed. In the A2 and B2 scenarios the annual average storm track intensity increases over the North-East Atlantic and decreases over the Eastern Mediterranean region with respect to present day conditions,. The number of cyclones decreases in future scenarios throughout Europe, except over the central Europe and Mediterranean in summer, where it increases. This overall change pattern is larger in the A2 than in the B2 simulations. Wind-wave field changes are discussed considering a similar analysis. The mean SWH (Significant Wave Height) field over large fraction of the Mediterranean Sea is lower for the A2 scenario than for the present climate during winter, spring and autumn. During summer the A2 mean SWH field is also lower everywhere, except for two areas, those between Greece and Northern Africa and between Spain and Algeria, where it is significantly higher. All these changes are similar, though smaller and less significant, in the B2 scenario, except during winter in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, when the B2 mean SWH field is higher than in the REF simulation. Also extreme SWH values are smaller in future scenarios than in the present climate and such SWH change is larger for the A2 than for the B2 scenario. In general, changes of SWH, wind speed and atmospheric circulation are consistent, and results show milder marine storms in future scenarios than in the present climate.

  11. Scenarios for the South African water sector in 2025; Paper

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Claassen, Marius

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available of the state and the engagement of society, whereas the Development Bank of Southern Africa published Prospects for South Africa’s Future, which identifies 16 drivers and describes 2 scenarios for South Africa (DBSA, 2011). Scenario development process... comes from the children’s story of the race between the tortoise and the hare, which demonstrates the value of a methodical approach. The Busy Bee illuminates the scenario where there is good intent and effort, but ignorance of complexity foils...

  12. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  13. Stress scenario generation for solvency and risk management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Marcus Christian; Henriksen, Lars Frederik Brandt; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2016-01-01

    of a policyholder as active and disabled, respectively, are low at the same time, and (c) mortality intensities of the policyholders in a portfolio are low at the same time. The set from which the worst-case scenario is taken reflects the dependence structure and allows us to relate the worst-case scenario...... and the techniques are non-standard in control theory, exactly because our worst-case scenario is deterministic and not adapted to the stochastic development of the portfolio. The formalistic results are exemplified in a series of numerical studies....

  14. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balducci, Patrick J.

    2008-04-03

    This report examines the economic drivers, technology constraints, and market potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the U.S. A PHEV is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be recharged by connecting to the grid and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries need recharging. The report presents and examines a series of PHEV market penetration scenarios. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representative contacted for this report and data obtained through a literature review, annual market penetration rates for PHEVs are presented from 2013 through 2045 for three scenarios. Each scenario is examined and implications for PHEV development are explored.

  15. Etude de la transmission sonore par voie externe d'un bouchon d'oreille couple au conduit auditif: Modelisation numerique et validation experimentale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viallet, Guilhem

    the third step, the previous model is extended to take into account the others tissues surrounding the ear canal (bone and soft tissues). Moreover, the previous geometry (the cylindrical one) is partially modified to obtain an average 2D axisymmetric ear canal geometry with a variable cross section. This model is first validated by comparisons with measurements on human subjects and then exploited to quantify the impact of various factors known to vary the attenuation when measured in laboratory conditions. These factors are: the possible presence of leaks, the insertion depth of the earplug, the inter-individual variation of the ear canal geometry and the variation of the mechanical parameters associated with the surrounding tissues. These factors are introduced one by one in the model and their impact on the attenuation is quantified and thereafter compared to standard deviations obtained from attenuation measurements on human subjects. Such comparisons are used to evaluate the predominance (as a function of the frequency) of the aforementioned factor effects on the attenuation. In the fourth step, the study goes into the possibility of replacing the surrounding tissues of the ear canal by mechanical impedance boundary conditions. This work ultimately aims to simplify the models developed in the third step, by using models of steps 1 and 2 improved by the mechanical impedance boundary conditions rather than the more conventional condition limits (the fixed one) used till now. Two tissue replacement scenarios have been tested in the 2D axisymmetric configuration described in the first approximation. In the first scenario (similar to step 1), the effect of all the tissues (skin, soft tissue and bone) were reduced to a mechanical impedance. A second scenario, a little less simplified, where only the bone and soft tissue domains are replaced is then considered. This second scenario allowed to correct the limitations obtained in the first scenario and helped to achieve

  16. Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

    2011-01-01

    The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  17. Economic Analysis of Different Electric Vehicle Charging Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying, Li; Haiming, Zhou; Xiufan, Ma; Hao, Wang

    2017-05-01

    Influence of electric vehicles (EV) to grid cannot be ignored. Research on the economy analysis of different charging scenarios is helpful to guide the user to charge or discharge orderly. EV charging models are built such as disordered charging, valley charging, intelligent charging, and V2G (Vehicle to Grid), by which changes of charging load in different scenarios can be seen to analyze the influence to initial load curve, and comparison can be done about user’s average cost. Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the electric vehicle charging behavior, cost in different charging scenarios are compared, social cost is introduced in V2G scene, and the relationship between user’s average cost and social cost is analyzed. By test, it is proved that user’s cost is the lowest in V2G scenario, and the larger the scale of vehicles is, the more the social cost can save.

  18. Deriving future oriented research and competence requirements based on scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Anne-Mette; Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    The key to a company's survival lies in its ability to adapt itself to an ever changing world. A company's knowledge and competencies must be fitted to the requirements of the environment in which it operates. However, the kind of competencies that ensures a company's survival are not acquired...... in time to do something different (Schwartz, 1991). Scenarios are known to offer greater advantages over other forecasting methods when uncertainty is high and historical relationships shaky (Fahey & Randall, 1998). Scenario analysis therefore seems better in tune with the current business environment......, which perhaps explains the increasing popularity of scenario analysis in business and other organizations. An institutionalised usage of scenario planning can shape a company's ability to act rather than to react in a volatile environment. Emerging weak signals (i.e. indicators of change) can...

  19. The modelling of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok

    2014-01-01

    . Transformation from a conventional fossil-fueled energy system to a 100% renewable energy system is not an easy task, however, it is a necessary goal to be attained. Academic and governmental bodies in Denmark have released several projects on future scenarios free from fossil fuel by year 2050. Three existing...... energy scenarios commonly conclude that a 100% renewable energy system in 2050 is feasible both technologically and economically. The three scenarios assume similar technology options, but different rates of usage. For example, the IDA 2050 scenario establishes an energy system dependent on more biomass...... there might be limits on the environmental capacity and opposition against biomass usage for societal and political reasons in the future. For clarifying better usage of biomass in a 100% renewable energy system, biomass usage for either heat production or electricity generation is compared in this thesis...

  20. VEMAP 2: U.S. Daily Climate Change Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: VEMAP Phase 2 has developed a number of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient...

  1. [Health promotion in the religious scenario: opportunities for nursing care].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Adriana Gomes Nogueira; Gubert, Fabiane do Amaral; Martins, Alissan Karine Lima; Galvão, Marli Teresinha Gimeniz; Vieira, Neiva Francenely Cunha; Pinheiro, Patricia Neyva da Costa

    2011-12-01

    This was a qualitative study of the documentary type carried out in the first half of 2008, and it aimed to describe the practices of health promotion developed in the religious scenario in a city in the countryside of Ceará, Brazil. Information were collected through audio-taped interviews with the priest in charge of the parish and the three coordinators of projects linked to the Catholic Church, selected by the identification of projects with the priest. The results show that promotion and health education are present in the activities developed by volunteers in the religious scenario. The church seeks to change attitudes and to promote the adoption of healthy behavior by individuals, through individual and collective actions. There is an urgent need to insert healthcare professionals in this scenario, strengthening it as a social support, gradually reducing the assistential activities and intensifying those aimed at health promotion with the support of nursing, in order to improve healthcare in this scenario.

  2. Energy scenarios for the nordic region towards 2035

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fidje, Audun

    2008-07-01

    This report summarizes the assumptions, methodology and main results of the MARKAL analysis of options for a sustainable energy future in the Nordic region. The work is based on the Nordic MARKAL model, which has been modified such that it may be used to analyse a large number of scenarios, typically 500 to 5000. The scenarios are developed by analysis a set of strategies and uncertainties. All these strategies and uncertainties are combined such that we generate in total 1 152 scenarios. The main purpose of generating a large number of scenarios was to facilitate for multi-criteria trade-off analysis. Overall results from this analysis show that large reductions of CO{sub 2} emissions are possible at CO{sub 2} cost below 50 EUR/t CO{sub 2} (author)

  3. Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA); MacIntyre, A.T. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA)

    1990-12-31

    Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Event tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, the authors discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 (Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises) using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees.

  4. Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); MacIntyre, A.T. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1991-12-31

    Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Even tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, we discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees.

  5. Concepts of Scenario Methods in Improvement of an Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edyta Bielinska-Dusza

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the study, principal objectives, scope of the investigation, methods employed results and principal conclusion. Uncertainty makes both theoreticians and practicioners face new tasks to fulfil. Enterprises, in order to win the competitive struggle must constantly improve their processes and structures. On the other hand, thinking in the categories of the future becomes really difficult nowadays. This creates particularly convenient conditions to apply scenario methods. In connection with the above, the purpose of this study is to characterize the essence of scenario methods employed in enterprise development. The article addresses the issue of factors conditioning proper selection of methods in the enterprise development process, the principles of scenario planning and the opportunities to apply other techniques and methods in scenario planning.

  6. Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national......-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate...... economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland...

  7. Environmental impact tool to assess national energy scenarios

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Taviv, R

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available (EESIs) as part of the developed tool, which assists with the identification of the environmental consequences of energy generation and use scenarios and thereby promotes sustainability, since environmental considerations can then be integrated...

  8. Scenario visualisation for participatory landscape planning - a study from Denmark

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tress, B.; Tress, G.

    2003-01-01

    Increasingly, different functions must be integrated simultaneously in the Danish countryside, demanding a common effort of planners, decision-makers, researchers, and stakeholders. The study proposes a transdisciplinary method that combines scenario technique, photorealistic visualisation, and

  9. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  10. Effect of adaptive learning style scenarios on learning achievements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bozhilov, Danail; Stefanov, Krassen; Stoyanov, Slavi

    2009-01-01

    Bozhilov, D., Stefanov, K., & Stoyanov, S. (2009). Effect of adaptive learning style scenarios on learning achievements [Special issue]. International Journal of Continuing Engineering Education and Lifelong Learning (IJCEELL), 19(4/5/6), 381-398.

  11. Scenario-based Training : Director’s Cut

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Bosch, K. van den; Meyer, J.J.C.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology offers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We

  12. War 2010: The Emergence of the Wild Card Scenario

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rosello, Victor

    1997-01-01

    This research paper explores the possibility of using prophecy-based predictions to create worst case scenarios or 'wild cards,' when examined within the context of current trends and indicators of world threats...

  13. Scenario Content, Outcome and Process - developing and testing methodologies for goal-based socio-technical scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wangel, Josefin (KTH Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies); Gustafsson, Stina (KTH Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology)

    2011-07-01

    This report presents methodological developments and findings from the ongoing research project SitCit. SitCit is a cross-disciplinary research project in which the challenge of sustainable urban development is taken on through a futures studies approach. Rather than starting in the problematic present, SitCit takes its starting point in the desired future. Through developing scenarios of more sustainable futures and connecting these to the present, the project aims at identifying and innovating potentials for a less environmentally burdening urban life. Energy use and CO{sub 2} are the main focus, but through a complementary qualitative sustainability assessment other aspects of sustainability are also included. The scenario methodology is comprised of three separate but interconnected parts. In the Scenario Content the question what could change is at the centre, and the potential changes are sought in the physical, institutional, and socio-cultural structures of buildings, transport and citizens' everyday life. Fundamental to the Scenario Content is an iterative identification of objects and actors of change. The Scenario Outcome focuses on the question of how much energy use could be decreased through these changes. This is estimated through modelling the scenario contents in terms of energy usage systems. In the Scenario Process the question of how the changes could be achieved is explored through elaborating the identified actors into a dimension of governance in the scenarios. Figure 1 presents an overview of the methodology and its integral parts. In SitCit, the methodology is developed through three scenario studies focusing on green mobility in Bromma, ICT solutions in Soedermalm and energy efficiency through refurbishment in Rinkeby-Kista. These three Stockholm City Districts all have their specific urban morphological and demographical characteristics and are chosen for contrast. This report presents the study focusing on green mobility

  14. The two promising scenarios to explode core collapse supernovae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soker, Noam

    2017-10-01

    I compare to each other what I consider to be the two most promising scenarios to explode core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe). Both are based on the negative jet feedback mechanism (JFM). In the jittering jets scenario a collapsing core of a single slowly-rotating star can launch jets. The accretion disk or belt (a sub-Keplerian accretion flow concentrated toward the equatorial plane) that launches the jets is intermittent with varying directions of the axis. Instabilities, such as the standing accretion shock instability (SASI), lead to stochastic angular momentum variations that allow the formation of the intermittent accretion disks/belts. According to this scenario no failed CCSNe exist. According to the fixed axis scenario, the core of the progenitor star must be spun up during its late evolutionary phases, and hence all CCSNe are descendants of strongly interacting binary systems, most likely through a common envelope evolution (whether the companion survives or not). Due to the strong binary interaction, the axis of the accretion disk that is formed around the newly born neutron star has a more or less fixed direction. According to the fixed axis scenario, accretion disks/belts are not formed around the newly born neutron star of single stars; they rather end in failed CCSNe. I also raise the possibility that the jittering jets scenario operates for progenitors with initial mass of 8 {M}ȯ ≲ {M}{ZAMS}≲ 18 {M}ȯ , while the fixed axis scenario operates for {M}{ZAMS}≳ 18 {M}ȯ . For the first time these two scenarios are compared to each other, as well as to some aspects of the neutrino-driven explosion mechanism. These new comparisons further suggest that the JFM plays a major role in exploding massive stars.

  15. Scenarios for sustainable peace in colombia by year 2019

    OpenAIRE

    Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents the simulation results of the model of cyclical terrorist murder for Colombia (Gómez-Sorzano, 2005) on the purpose of doing sensitivity analysis to help the country in the design of a policy bringing sustainable peace before year 2019. The first part presents 11 scenarios 2005-2010. The final section shows 18 additional scenarios 2006-2019. According to them peace will be attained around year 2008 and sustainable peace will be granted before year 2019.

  16. Irrigation Water Value Scenarios for 2015: Application to Guadalquivir River

    OpenAIRE

    Mesa-Jurado, María Azahara; Pistón, Juan Máximo; Berbel, Julio; Giannoccaro, Giacomo

    2007-01-01

    This paper reviews the application of a scenario for the 2015 agricultural policy and markets for the irrigated agriculture in Europe. Scenarios for irrigated agriculture 2015 are also described in detail including Reformed CAP and biomass demand. It is applied at the basin level for the Guadalquivir River in southern Spain. The methodology is based upon residual value of water and it combines budget and farm analysis at municipality level, with the Guadalquivir basin divided at 50 ‘comarcas’...

  17. Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

    OpenAIRE

    Vaughan, Naomi E; Gough, Clair

    2016-01-01

    Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment ofBECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a sca...

  18. Search for compressed SUSY scenarios with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    Maurer, Julien; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    Scenarios where multiple SUSY states are nearly degenerate in mass produce soft decay products, and they represent an experimental challenge for ATLAS. This talk presents recent results of analyses explicitly targeting such “compressed” scenarios with a variety of experimental techniques. All results make use of proton-proton collisions collected at a centre of mass of 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector.

  19. An Elastic Architecture Adaptable to Millions of Application Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Yunji; Chen, Tianshi; Guo, Qi; Xu, Zhiwei; Zhang, Lei

    2012-01-01

    Part 5: Performance Modeling, Prediction, and Tuning; International audience; With the rapid development of computer industry, the number of applications has been growing rapidly. Furthermore, even one application may correspond to different application scenarios which impose different requirements on performance or power. This trend raises the following question: how to design processors that best suit millions of application scenarios? It is impractical to design a dedicated processor for e...

  20. Search for compressed SUSY scenarios with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    Maurer, Julien; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    Scenarios where multiple SUSY states are nearly degenerate in mass produce soft decay products, and they represent an experimental challenge for ATLAS. This contribution presented recent results of analyses explicitly targeting such ``compressed'' scenarios with a variety of experimental techniques. All results made use of proton-proton collisions collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC.

  1. Scenario Development Process at the Vertical Motion Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reardon, Scott E.; Beard, Steven D.; Lewis, Emily

    2017-01-01

    There has been a significant effort within the simulation community to standardize many aspects of flight simulation. More recently, an effort has begun to develop a formal scenario definition language for aviation. A working group within the AIAA Modeling and Simulation Technical Committee has been created to develop a standard aviation scenario definition language, though much of the initial effort has been tailored to training simulators. Research and development (R&D) simulators, like the Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS), and training simulators have different missions and thus have different scenario requirements. The purpose of this paper is to highlight some of the unique tasks and scenario elements used at the VMS so they may be captured by scenario standardization efforts. The VMS most often performs handling qualities studies and transfer of training studies. Three representative handling qualities simulation studies and two transfer of training simulation studies are described in this paper. Unique scenario elements discussed in this paper included special out-the-window (OTW) targets and environmental conditions, motion system parameters, active inceptor parameters, and configurable vehicle math model parameters.

  2. Ranking of Logistics System Scenarios for Central Business District

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Snežana Radoman Tadić

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the procedure for logistics system scenario selection for the central business district (CBD of the city in the phase of significant urban changes. Scenarios are defined in accordance with the overall logistics concept of the city. Conflicting goals of stakeholders (residents, shippers and receivers, logistics providers and city government generate a vast number of criteria that need to be included when selecting the scenario for the city area logistics system. Due to limited resources and linguistic assessment of criteria, fuzzy extensions of conventional multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM methods were used. Fuzzy "analytical hierarchy process" (FAHP is applied to determine the relative weights of evaluation criteria, and fuzzy "technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution" (FTOPSIS is applied to rank the logistics systems scenarios. This paper contributes to the literature in the field of city logistics (CL, as it applies the integrated FAHP-FTOPSIS method for the evaluation of scenarios, which are also integrated combinations of different CL initiatives. The integrated combined approach proved to be accurate, effective and a systematic tool for the decision support in the process of selecting CBD logistics scenarios.

  3. The Reference Scenarios for the Swiss Emergency Planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanspeter Isaak; Navert, Stephan B.; Ralph Schulz [Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate CH-5232 Villigen-HSK (Switzerland)

    2006-07-01

    For the purpose of emergency planning and preparedness, realistic reference scenarios and corresponding accident source terms have been defined on the basis of common plant features. Three types of representative reference scenarios encompass the accident sequences expected to be the most probable. Accident source terms are assumed to be identical for all Swiss nuclear power plants, although the plants differ in reactor type and power. Plant-specific probabilistic safety analyses were used to justify the reference scenarios and the postulated accident source terms. From the full spectrum of release categories available, those categories were selected which would be covered by the releases and time frames assumed in the reference scenarios. For each nuclear power plant, the cumulative frequency of accident sequences not covered by the reference scenarios was determined. It was found that the cumulative frequency for such accident sequences does not exceed about 1 x 10{sup -6} per year. The Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate concludes that the postulated accident source terms for the reference scenarios are consistent with the current international approach in emergency planning, where one should concentrate on the most probable accident sequences. (N.C.)

  4. Scenario planning: a tool for academic health sciences libraries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Logan; Giesecke, Joan; Walton, Linda

    2010-03-01

    Review the International Campaign to Revitalise Academic Medicine (ICRAM) Future Scenarios as a potential starting point for developing scenarios to envisage plausible futures for health sciences libraries. At an educational workshop, 15 groups, each composed of four to seven Association of Academic Health Sciences Libraries (AAHSL) directors and AAHSL/NLM Fellows, created plausible stories using the five ICRAM scenarios. Participants created 15 plausible stories regarding roles played by health sciences librarians, how libraries are used and their physical properties in response to technology, scholarly communication, learning environments and health care economic changes. Libraries are affected by many forces, including economic pressures, curriculum and changes in technology, health care delivery and scholarly communications business models. The future is likely to contain ICRAM scenario elements, although not all, and each, if they come to pass, will impact health sciences libraries. The AAHSL groups identified common features in their scenarios to learn lessons for now. The hope is that other groups find the scenarios useful in thinking about academic health science library futures.

  5. Plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in Sweden in 2025.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Björkman, B; Fridell, K; Tavakol Olofsson, P

    2017-11-01

    Radiography is a healthcare speciality with many technical challenges. Advances in engineering and information technology applications may continue to drive and be driven by radiographers. The world of diagnostic imaging is changing rapidly and radiographers must be proactive in order to survive. To ensure sustainable development, organisations have to identify future opportunities and threats in a timely manner and incorporate them into their strategic planning. Hence, the aim of this study was to analyse and describe plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in 2025. The study has a qualitative design with an inductive approach based on focus group interviews. The interviews were inspired by the Scenario-Planning method. Of the seven trends identified in a previous study, the radiographers considered two as the most uncertain scenarios that would have the greatest impact on the profession should they occur. These trends, labelled "Access to career advancement" and "A sufficient number of radiographers", were inserted into the scenario cross. The resulting four plausible future scenarios were: The happy radiographer, the specialist radiographer, the dying profession and the assembly line. It is suggested that "The dying profession" scenario could probably be turned in the opposite direction by facilitating career development opportunities for radiographers within the profession. Changing the direction would probably lead to a profession composed of "happy radiographers" who are specialists, proud of their profession and competent to carry out advanced tasks, in contrast to being solely occupied by "the assembly line". Copyright © 2017 The College of Radiographers. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. What roles for viruses in origin of life scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostyrka, Gladys

    2016-10-01

    Important roles in origin of life (OL) scenarios have been and still are attributed to viruses. Yet the strict dependence of viruses on cells for their multiplication has been widely acknowledged since the first decades of the 20th century. How could viruses play critical roles in the OL if life relies on cellular organization and if viruses are defined as parasites of cells? In other words, how could viruses play a role in the emergence of cellular life if the existence of cells is a prerequisite for the existence of viruses? This paper investigates this issue and describes past and current OL scenarios conferring viruses with important roles, thereby completing the work of historian of science and physician Scott Podolsky who identified three major roles of viruses in past OL scenarios. Some objections raised by present OL scenarios conferring viruses with an important role are discussed. I argue that disagreements concerning the roles of viruses in OL scenarios stem from the different concepts of life and of virus scientists defend. Investigating the roles of viruses in OL scenarios not only helps identifying different ways to define life in the context of OL theorizing. It also offers the opportunity to better understand how viruses could be conceptualized. The relevance of the replication-first versus metabolism-first dichotomy in OL theorizing is briefly discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Accident scenarios of the TRIGA Mark II reactor in Vienna

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Villa, Mario, E-mail: mvilla@ati.ac.a [Vienna University of Technology, Atominstitut, Stadionallee 2, 1020 Wien (Austria); Haydn, Markus [Vienna University of Technology, Atominstitut, Stadionallee 2, 1020 Wien (Austria); Steinhauser, Georg, E-mail: georg.steinhauser@ati.ac.a [Vienna University of Technology, Atominstitut, Stadionallee 2, 1020 Wien (Austria); Boeck, Helmuth [Vienna University of Technology, Atominstitut, Stadionallee 2, 1020 Wien (Austria)

    2010-12-15

    The safety report of the TRIGA Mark II reactor in Vienna includes three accident scenarios and their deterministic dose consequences to the environment. The destruction of the cladding of the most activated fuel element, the destruction of all fuel elements and a plane crash were considered scenarios in that report. The calculations were made in 1978 with the software program named STRISK. In this paper, the program package PC Cosyma was applied on the TRIGA Mark II reactor in Vienna and the deterministic consequences of the scenarios to the environment were updated. The fission product inventories of all fuel elements were calculated with ORIGEN2. To get meteorological data of the atmospheric condition around the release area, a weather station was installed. The release parameters were taken from the safety report or were replaced by worst case parameters. This paper focuses on two accident scenarios: the destruction of the cladding of the fuel element with the highest activity content and the case of a large plane crash. The current accident scenarios show good agreement with the calculations from 1978, hence no technical modifications in the safety report of the TRIGA reactor Vienna were necessary. Even in the very worst case scenario - complete destruction of all fuel elements in a large plane crash - the expected doses in the Atominstitut's neighborhood remain moderate.

  8. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    There is a growing demand to assess and inform about future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems and to deduce appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are reliable and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). New climate model simulations, an improved scientific understanding and new statistical downscaling tools make an update of these scenarios necessary. An important component toward the new national scenarios "CH2018" are the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user-tailored and hence find a wide applicability. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS). To get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need, a comprehensive market research was undertaken. The survey targeted the most climate-relevant sectors, and considered representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, as well as a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users. Additionally, two workshops were organized to gather the needs in dissemination of climate scenarios. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the user needs according to the level of usage: "intensive users" are mainly researchers who handle large climate scenario data for further use in subsequent impact studies; "extensive users" are usually from administrations or consulting companies and perform simple calculations for specific questions or use provided graphics and tables; "facilitators" are usually from media, NGOs or schools and process and disseminate scenario information for a specific target group. The less intensive the usage of climate

  9. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

  10. User needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger Knutti, Jacqueline

    2017-04-01

    In the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS) new climate change scenarios for Switzerland are currently under development that will be released in 2018 ("CH2018 scenarios"). An important component herein is the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user tailored and hence find a wide applicability in different sectors in Switzerland. A comprehensive market research was conducted to get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need. The survey targeted the most climate relevant sectors, and involved representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users and two specific workshops gathering the needs in dissemination. Additionally, the survey results were consolidated at a national symposium with around 150 participants from research, administration and practice. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the users of climate scenarios according to their level of usage and according to the different sectors. It turns out that the less intensive the usage of the climate scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. According to the survey it is especially the non-experts that should be better addressed in the new cycle of national climate scenarios. In terms of content, the survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in the predecessor climate scenario suite CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy

  11. SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

  12. Future Scenarios of Livestock and Land Use in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, M. H.; Abrahão, G. M.

    2016-12-01

    Brazil currently has about 213 M cattle heads in 151 M ha of pastures. In the last 40 years, both the top 5% and the average stocking rate are increasing exponentially in Brazil, while the relative yield gap has been constant. Using these historical relationships, we estimate future scenarios of livestock and land use in Brazil. We assume a reference scenario for the top 5%, in which pasturelands are adequately fertilized, soil is not compacted and well drained, grasses are never burned, pastures are divided in 8 subdivisions of regular area, are cattle is rotated through the subdivisions. The reference scenario does not consider irrigation or feed supplementation. We calibrate a computer model and run it for the pasturelands throughout the entire country. We conclude that current pastures have about 20% efficiency to raise cattle compared to the reference scenario. Considering the reference scenario, we predict an equilibrium will be reached in about 100 years, with top 5% with about 9.3 heads per ha and the average 4.3 heads per ha, or 600 M heads of livestock. Considering a more pessimistic scenario, which considers an inflection of the curve in present times, we predict an equilibrium will be reached in about 60 years, with the top 5% stocking rate equal to 4.3 heads per ha and the average equal to 2.2 heads per ha, or 300 M heads of livestock. Both cases represent a considerable expansion of the livestock, maybe even higher than the growth of the global demands for beef. These scenarios indicate that not all existing pasturelands need to be used in the future - a significant part of them may be converted to croplands, which will also contribute to the reduction of deforestation.

  13. Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

    1992-01-01

    The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

  14. The Efficacy of Digital Case Scenario versus Paper Case Scenario on Clinical Reasoning in Problem Based Learning: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Zarea Gavgani Vahideh; Hazrati Hakime; Ghojazadeh Mortaza

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: In medical and clinical education, creating critical thinking and promoting clinical reasoning abilities are the highest aims and results of education. The main aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of digital case scenarios versus print/paper case scenarios on clinical reasoning in problem-based learning (PBL). If a study used the multimedia scenario case interventions, video case scenarios and online-guided scenarios as digital case PBL, we would cons...

  15. Thermal stability of the French nuclear waste glass - long term behavior modeling; Etude de la stabilite thermique du verre nucleaire. Modelisation de son evolution a long terme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orlhac, X

    2000-07-01

    The thermal stability of the French nuclear waste glass was investigated experimentally and by modeling to predict its long-term evolution at low temperature. The crystallization mechanisms were analyzed by studying devitrification in the supercooled liquid. Three main crystalline phases were characterized (CaMoO{sub 4}, CeCO{sub 2}, ZnCr{sub 2}O{sub 4}). Their crystallisation was TO 4.24 wt%, due to the low concentration of the constituent elements. The nucleation and growth curves showed that platinoid elements catalysed nucleation but did not affect growth, which was governed by volume diffusion. The criteria of classic nucleation theory were applied to determine the thermodynamic and diffusional activation energies. Viscosity measurements illustrate the analogy between the activation energy of viscous flow and diffusion, indicating control of crystallization by viscous flow phenomena. The combined action of nucleation and growth was assessed by TTT plots, revealing a crystallization equilibrium line that enables the crystallized fractions to be predicted over the long term. The authors show that hetero-genetics catalyze the transformation without modifying the maximum crystallized fraction. A kinetic model was developed to describe devitrification in the glass based on the nucleation and growth curves alone. The authors show that the low-temperature growth exhibits scale behavior (between time and temperature) similar to thermo-rheological simplicity. The analogy between the resulting activation energy and that of the viscosity was used to model growth on the basis of viscosity. After validation with a simplified (BaO{sub 2}SiO{sub 2}) glass, the model was applied to the containment glass. The result indicated that the glass remained completely vitreous after a cooling scenario with the one measured at the glass core. Under isothermal conditions, several million years would be required to reach the maximum theoretical crystallization fraction. (author)

  16. Kinetic modeling of the thermal evolution of crude oils in sedimentary basins; Modelisation cinetique de l'evolution thermique des petroles dans les gisements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bounaceur, R.

    2001-01-15

    The aim of this work is to obtain a better understanding of the reactions involved in the thermal cracking of crude oil in sedimentary basins, and to study its kinetics as a function of temperature and pressure. We study the kinetics of pyrolysis of alkanes at low temperature, high pressure and high conversion and we propose three methods of reduction of the corresponding mechanisms. Several compounds having an inhibiting or accelerating effect on the rate of decomposition of alkanes were also studied. This research led to the construction of a general kinetic model of 5200 elementary steps representing the pyrolysis of a complex mixture of 52 molecules belonging to various chemical families: 30 linear alkanes (from CH{sub 4} to C{sub 30}H{sub 62}), 10 branched-chain alkanes (including pristane and phytane), 2 naphthenes (propyl-cyclo-pentane and propyl-cyclohexane), tetralin, 1-methyl-indan, 4 aromatics (benzene, toluene, butyl-benzene and decyl-benzene), 3 hetero-atomic compounds (a disulfide, a mercaptan and H{sub 2}S). This model is compared to experimental data coming from the pyrolysis of two oils: one from the North Sea and the other from Pematang. The results obtained show a good agreement between the experimental and simulated values. Then, we simulated the cracking of these two oils by using the following burial scenario: initial temperature of 160 degrees, 50 m per million years (ma) in a constant geothermal gradient of 30 degrees C/km, implying a heating rate of 1.5 degrees C/ma. Under these conditions, our model shows that these two oils start to crack only towards 210-220 degrees C and that their time of half-life corresponds to a temperature around 230-240 degrees C. The model also makes it possible to simulate the evolution of geochemical parameters such as the GOR, the API degree... (author)

  17. Low Emission Energy Scenarios for the European Union

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barrett, Mark (Complex Environment Systems Group, Bartlett School of Graduate Studies, Univ. College London (GB))

    2007-12-15

    Energy consumption is a major cause of carbon dioxide emission, and also largely determines the uncontrolled emissions of many other pollutants. In consequence, energy scenarios are key inputs to the projection of pollution emission, and the formulation of strategies to reduce pollution and achieve environmental objectives. Alternative energy strategies including behavioral change, demand management, energy efficiency, and low carbon fuels are explored in this report. In addition to abating greenhouse gas emissions, these strategies can facilitate cheaper and greater abatement of other atmospheric pollutants as compared to higher carbon scenarios. In general, achieving a given air pollution emission target costs less in a low carbon scenario than in a high carbon scenario. This work is aimed at producing policies that exploit the positive synergy between strategies to limit global warming, and strategies for reaching other environmental objectives such as reduced acidification and improved air quality. Low carbon energy scenarios can improve energy security by reducing the consumption if finite fuels and reducing import requirements. The given objective was to produce scenarios in which the total emission of carbon dioxide from the twenty-five countries of the European Union is reduced by at least 30% over the period 1990 to 2020. To this end scenarios have been produced for each of the twenty-five EU countries taking into account recent historical data and assumed economic and population growths taken from other studies, and selections of policies measures. The scenarios show that, as compared to 1990, CO{sub 2} reductions of more than 30% are feasible by 2020, and that larger reductions are possible, especially in the longer term as technologies with long lifetimes such as power stations, are replaced. Data from the energy scenarios were input to the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model of IIASA (International Institute for

  18. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; Bowman, David Charles [ORNL

    2007-06-01

    This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining

  19. Scenarios and innovative systems; Scenarii et systemes innovants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  20. Visioning the Future: Scenarios Modeling of the Florida Coastal Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flower, Hilary; Rains, Mark; Fitz, Carl

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we provide screening-level analysis of plausible Everglades ecosystem response by 2060 to sea level rise (0.50 m) interacting with macroclimate change (1.5 °C warming, 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and rainfall that either increases or decreases by 10%). We used these climate scenarios as input to the Ecological Landscape Model to simulate changes to seven interactive hydro-ecological metrics. Mangrove forest and other marine influences migrated up to 15 km inland in both scenarios, delineated by the saltwater front. Freshwater habitat area decreased by 25-30% under our two climate change scenarios and was largely replaced by mangroves and, in the increased rainfall scenario, open water as well. Significant mangroves drowned along northern Florida Bay in both climate change scenarios due to sea level rise. Increased rainfall of 10% provided significant benefits to the spatial and temporal salinity regime within the marine-influenced zone, providing a more gradual and natural adjustment for at-risk flora and fauna. However, increased rainfall also increased the risk of open water, due to water depths that inhibited mangrove establishment and reduced peat accumulation rates. We infer that ecological effects related to sea level rise may occur in the extreme front-edge of saltwater intrusion, that topography will control the incursion of this zone as sea level rises, and that differences in freshwater availability will have ecologically significant effects on ecosystem resilience through the temporal and spatial pattern of salinity changes.