WorldWideScience

Sample records for scenario tree modelling

  1. Scenario tree model for animal disease freedom framed in the OIE context using the example of a generic swine model for Aujeszky's disease in commercial swine in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Jette; Vallières, André

    2016-01-01

    "Freedom from animal disease" is an ambiguous concept that may have a different meaning in trade and science. For trade alone, there are different levels of freedom from OIE listed diseases. A country can: be recognized by OIE to be "officially free"; self-declare freedom, with no official recognition by the OIE; or report animal disease as absent (no occurrence) in six-monthly reports. In science, we apply scenario tree models to calculate the probability of a population being free from disease at a given prevalence to provide evidence of freedom from animal disease. Here, we link science with application by describing how a scenario tree model may contribute to a country's claim of freedom from animal disease. We combine the idea of a standardized presentation of scenario tree models for disease freedom and having a similar model for two different animal diseases to suggest that a simple generic model may help veterinary authorities to build and evaluate scenario tree models for disease freedom. Here, we aim to develop a generic scenario tree model for disease freedom that is: animal species specific, population specific, and has a simple structure. The specific objectives were: to explore the levels of freedom described in the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code; to describe how scenario tree models may contribute to a country's claim of freedom from animal disease; and to present a generic swine scenario tree model for disease freedom in Canada's domestic (commercial) swine applied to Aujeszky's disease (AD). In particular, to explore how historical survey data, and data mining may affect the probability of freedom and to explore different sampling strategies. Finally, to frame the generic scenario tree model in the context of Canada's claim of freedom from AD. We found that scenario tree models are useful to support a country's claim of freedom either as "recognized officially free" or as part of a self-declaration but the models should not stand alone in a

  2. Using scenario tree modelling for targeted herd sampling to substantiate freedom from disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blickenstorfer, Sarah; Schwermer, Heinzpeter; Engels, Monika; Reist, Martin; Doherr, Marcus G; Hadorn, Daniela C

    2011-08-16

    In order to optimise the cost-effectiveness of active surveillance to substantiate freedom from disease, a new approach using targeted sampling of farms was developed and applied on the example of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) and enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL) in Switzerland. Relevant risk factors (RF) for the introduction of IBR and EBL into Swiss cattle farms were identified and their relative risks defined based on literature review and expert opinions. A quantitative model based on the scenario tree method was subsequently used to calculate the required sample size of a targeted sampling approach (TS) for a given sensitivity. We compared the sample size with that of a stratified random sample (sRS) with regard to efficiency. The required sample sizes to substantiate disease freedom were 1,241 farms for IBR and 1,750 farms for EBL to detect 0.2% herd prevalence with 99% sensitivity. Using conventional sRS, the required sample sizes were 2,259 farms for IBR and 2,243 for EBL. Considering the additional administrative expenses required for the planning of TS, the risk-based approach was still more cost-effective than a sRS (40% reduction on the full survey costs for IBR and 8% for EBL) due to the considerable reduction in sample size. As the model depends on RF selected through literature review and was parameterised with values estimated by experts, it is subject to some degree of uncertainty. Nevertheless, this approach provides the veterinary authorities with a promising tool for future cost-effective sampling designs.

  3. Using scenario tree modelling for targeted herd sampling to substantiate freedom from disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reist Martin

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In order to optimise the cost-effectiveness of active surveillance to substantiate freedom from disease, a new approach using targeted sampling of farms was developed and applied on the example of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR and enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL in Switzerland. Relevant risk factors (RF for the introduction of IBR and EBL into Swiss cattle farms were identified and their relative risks defined based on literature review and expert opinions. A quantitative model based on the scenario tree method was subsequently used to calculate the required sample size of a targeted sampling approach (TS for a given sensitivity. We compared the sample size with that of a stratified random sample (sRS with regard to efficiency. Results The required sample sizes to substantiate disease freedom were 1,241 farms for IBR and 1,750 farms for EBL to detect 0.2% herd prevalence with 99% sensitivity. Using conventional sRS, the required sample sizes were 2,259 farms for IBR and 2,243 for EBL. Considering the additional administrative expenses required for the planning of TS, the risk-based approach was still more cost-effective than a sRS (40% reduction on the full survey costs for IBR and 8% for EBL due to the considerable reduction in sample size. Conclusions As the model depends on RF selected through literature review and was parameterised with values estimated by experts, it is subject to some degree of uncertainty. Nevertheless, this approach provides the veterinary authorities with a promising tool for future cost-effective sampling designs.

  4. Modeling potential future individual tree-species distributions in the eastern United States under a climate change scenario: a case study with Pinus virginiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R. Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Mark W. Schwartz; Mark W. Schwartz

    1999-01-01

    We are using a deterministic regression tree analysis model (DISTRIB) and a stochastic migration model (SHIFT) to examine potential distributions of ~66 individual species of eastern US trees under a 2 x CO2 climate change scenario. This process is demonstrated for Virginia pine (Pinus virginiana).

  5. Scenario tree airline fleet planning for demand uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Repko, M.G.J.; Lopes dos Santos, Bruno F.

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes an innovative multi-period modeling approach to solve the airline fleet planning problem under demand uncertainty. The problem is modeled using a scenario tree approach. The tree is composed of nodes, which represent points of decision in multiple time stages of the planning

  6. A scenario tree model for the Canadian Notifiable Avian Influenza Surveillance System and its application to estimation of probability of freedom and sample size determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Jette; Stryhn, Henrik; Vallières, André; El Allaki, Farouk

    2011-05-01

    In 2008, Canada designed and implemented the Canadian Notifiable Avian Influenza Surveillance System (CanNAISS) with six surveillance activities in a phased-in approach. CanNAISS was a surveillance system because it had more than one surveillance activity or component in 2008: passive surveillance; pre-slaughter surveillance; and voluntary enhanced notifiable avian influenza surveillance. Our objectives were to give a short overview of two active surveillance components in CanNAISS; describe the CanNAISS scenario tree model and its application to estimation of probability of populations being free of NAI virus infection and sample size determination. Our data from the pre-slaughter surveillance component included diagnostic test results from 6296 serum samples representing 601 commercial chicken and turkey farms collected from 25 August 2008 to 29 January 2009. In addition, we included data from a sub-population of farms with high biosecurity standards: 36,164 samples from 55 farms sampled repeatedly over the 24 months study period from January 2007 to December 2008. All submissions were negative for Notifiable Avian Influenza (NAI) virus infection. We developed the CanNAISS scenario tree model, so that it will estimate the surveillance component sensitivity and the probability of a population being free of NAI at the 0.01 farm-level and 0.3 within-farm-level prevalences. We propose that a general model, such as the CanNAISS scenario tree model, may have a broader application than more detailed models that require disease specific input parameters, such as relative risk estimates. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA); MacIntyre, A.T. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA)

    1990-12-31

    Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Event tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, the authors discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 (Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises) using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees.

  8. Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); MacIntyre, A.T. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1991-12-31

    Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Even tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, we discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees.

  9. Credibilistic multi-period portfolio optimization based on scenario tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohebbi, Negin; Najafi, Amir Abbas

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we consider a multi-period fuzzy portfolio optimization model with considering transaction costs and the possibility of risk-free investment. We formulate a bi-objective mean-VaR portfolio selection model based on the integration of fuzzy credibility theory and scenario tree in order to dealing with the markets uncertainty. The scenario tree is also a proper method for modeling multi-period portfolio problems since the length and continuity of their horizon. We take the return and risk as well cardinality, threshold, class, and liquidity constraints into consideration for further compliance of the model with reality. Then, an interactive dynamic programming method, which is based on a two-phase fuzzy interactive approach, is employed to solve the proposed model. In order to verify the proposed model, we present an empirical application in NYSE under different circumstances. The results show that the consideration of data uncertainty and other real-world assumptions lead to more practical and efficient solutions.

  10. Scenario tree generation and multi-asset financial optimization problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2013-01-01

    We compare two popular scenario tree generation methods in the context of financial optimization: moment matching and scenario reduction. Using a simple problem with a known analytic solution, moment matching-when ensuring absence of arbitrage-replicates this solution precisely. On the other hand...

  11. Urban tree growth modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    E. Gregory McPherson; Paula J. Peper

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes three long-term tree growth studies conducted to evaluate tree performance because repeated measurements of the same trees produce critical data for growth model calibration and validation. Several empirical and process-based approaches to modeling tree growth are reviewed. Modeling is more advanced in the fields of forestry and...

  12. Latent tree models

    OpenAIRE

    Zwiernik, Piotr

    2017-01-01

    Latent tree models are graphical models defined on trees, in which only a subset of variables is observed. They were first discussed by Judea Pearl as tree-decomposable distributions to generalise star-decomposable distributions such as the latent class model. Latent tree models, or their submodels, are widely used in: phylogenetic analysis, network tomography, computer vision, causal modeling, and data clustering. They also contain other well-known classes of models like hidden Markov models...

  13. AUTOMATIC TREE-CROWN DETECTION IN CHALLENGING SCENARIOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Bulatov

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new procedure for individual tree detection and modeling is presented. The input of this procedure consists of a normalized digital surface model NDSM, and a possibly error-prone classification result. The procedure is modular so that the functionality, the advantages and the disadvantages for every single module will be explained. The most important technical contributions of the paper are: Employing watershed transformation combined with classification results, applying hotspots detectors for identifying treetops in groups of trees, and correcting NDSM by detecting and geometric reconstruction of small anomalies, such as earth walls. Two minor contributions are made up by a detailed literature research on available methods for individual tree detection and estimation of tree-crowns for clearly identified trees in order to reduce arbitrariness by assigning trees to one of the few types in the output model.

  14. Climate models and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortelius, C.; Holopainen, E.; Kaurola, J.; Ruosteenoja, K.; Raeisaenen, J. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1996-12-31

    In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

  15. Structural Equation Model Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandmaier, Andreas M.; von Oertzen, Timo; McArdle, John J.; Lindenberger, Ulman

    2013-01-01

    In the behavioral and social sciences, structural equation models (SEMs) have become widely accepted as a modeling tool for the relation between latent and observed variables. SEMs can be seen as a unification of several multivariate analysis techniques. SEM Trees combine the strengths of SEMs and the decision tree paradigm by building tree…

  16. Tree cover in Central Africa: determinants and sensitivity under contrasted scenarios of global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleman, Julie C; Blarquez, Olivier; Gourlet-Fleury, Sylvie; Bremond, Laurent; Favier, Charly

    2017-01-30

    Tree cover is a key variable for ecosystem functioning, and is widely used to study tropical ecosystems. But its determinants and their relative importance are still a matter of debate, especially because most regional and global analyses have not considered the influence of agricultural practices. More information is urgently needed regarding how human practices influence vegetation structure. Here we focused in Central Africa, a region still subjected to traditional agricultural practices with a clear vegetation gradient. Using remote sensing data and global databases, we calibrated a Random Forest model to correlatively link tree cover with climatic, edaphic, fire and agricultural practices data. We showed that annual rainfall and accumulated water deficit were the main drivers of the distribution of tree cover and vegetation classes (defined by the modes of tree cover density), but agricultural practices, especially pastoralism, were also important in determining tree cover. We simulated future tree cover with our model using different scenarios of climate and land-use (agriculture and population) changes. Our simulations suggest that tree cover may respond differently regarding the type of scenarios, but land-use change was an important driver of vegetation change even able to counterbalance the effect of climate change in Central Africa.

  17. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  18. Multistage stochastic programming: A scenario tree based approach to planning under uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Defourny, Boris; Ernst, Damien; Wehenkel, Louis

    2011-01-01

    In this chapter, we present the multistage stochastic programming framework for sequential decision making under uncertainty. We discuss its differences with Markov Decision Processes, from the point of view of decision models and solution algorithms. We describe the standard technique for solving approximately multistage stochastic problems, which is based on a discretization of the disturbance space called scenario tree. We insist on a critical issue of the approach: the decisions can be ve...

  19. Potential impacts of climate change on birds and trees of the eastern United States: newest climate scenarios and species abundance modelling techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    L.R. Iverson; A.M. Prasad; S.N. Matthews; M.P. Peters

    2007-01-01

    Climate change is affecting an increasing number of species the world over, and evidence is mounting that these changes will continue to accelerate. There have been many studies that use a modelling approach to predict the effects of future climatic change on ecological systems, including by us (Iverson et al. 1999, Matthews et al. 2004); this modelling approach uses a...

  20. Impacts of natural disturbances on the development of European forest resources: application of model approaches from tree and stand levels to large-scale scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schelhaas, M.J.

    2008-01-01

    Natural disturbances can significantly affect the sustainable production of forest services. Until now there has been no concise overview of the damage such disturbances have caused to European forests, and their role in projection models has often been ignored. This dissertation aims to contribute

  1. Attack Trees for Practical Security Assessment: Ranking of Attack Scenarios with ADTool 2.0

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gadyatskaya, Olga; Jhawar, Ravi; Kordy, P.T.; Lounis, Karim; Mauw, Sjouke; Trujillo-Rasua, Rolando

    2016-01-01

    In this tool demonstration paper we present the ADTool2.0: an open-source software tool for design, manipulation and analysis of attack trees. The tool supports ranking of attack scenarios based on quantitative attributes entered by the user; it is scriptable; and it incorporates attack trees with

  2. Integrating ecosystem services analysis into scenario planning practice: accounting for street tree benefits with i-Tree valuation in Central Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilde, Thomas; Paterson, Robert

    2014-12-15

    Scenario planning continues to gain momentum in the United States as an effective process for building consensus on long-range community plans and creating regional visions for the future. However, efforts to integrate more sophisticated information into the analytical framework to help identify important ecosystem services have lagged in practice. This is problematic because understanding the tradeoffs of land consumption patterns on ecological integrity is central to mitigating the environmental degradation caused by land use change and new development. In this paper we describe how an ecosystem services valuation model, i-Tree, was integrated into a mainstream scenario planning software tool, Envision Tomorrow, to assess the benefits of public street trees for alternative future development scenarios. The tool is then applied to development scenarios from the City of Hutto, TX, a Central Texas Sustainable Places Project demonstration community. The integrated tool represents a methodological improvement for scenario planning practice, offers a way to incorporate ecosystem services analysis into mainstream planning processes, and serves as an example of how open source software tools can expand the range of issues available for community and regional planning consideration, even in cases where community resources are limited. The tool also offers room for future improvements; feasible options include canopy analysis of various future land use typologies, as well as a generalized street tree model for broader U.S. application. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Model checking exact cost for attack scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanyan, Zaruhi; Nielson, Flemming

    2017-01-01

    Attack trees constitute a powerful tool for modelling security threats. Many security analyses of attack trees can be seamlessly expressed as model checking of Markov Decision Processes obtained from the attack trees, thus reaping the benefits of a coherent framework and a mature tool support....... However, current model checking does not encompass the exact cost analysis of an attack, which is standard for attack trees. Our first contribution is the logic erPCTL with cost-related operators. The extended logic allows to analyse the probability of an event satisfying given cost bounds and to compute...... the exact cost of an event. Our second contribution is the model checking algorithm for erPCTL. Finally, we apply our framework to the analysis of attack trees....

  4. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  5. Modelling tree biomasses in Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Repola, J.

    2013-06-01

    Biomass equations for above- and below-ground tree components of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L), Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst) and birch (Betula pendula Roth and Betula pubescens Ehrh.) were compiled using empirical material from a total of 102 stands. These stands (44 Scots pine, 34 Norway spruce and 24 birch stands) were located mainly on mineral soil sites representing a large part of Finland. The biomass models were based on data measured from 1648 sample trees, comprising 908 pine, 613 spruce and 127 birch trees. Biomass equations were derived for the total above-ground biomass and for the individual tree components: stem wood, stem bark, living and dead branches, needles, stump, and roots, as dependent variables. Three multivariate models with different numbers of independent variables for above-ground biomass and one for below-ground biomass were constructed. Variables that are normally measured in forest inventories were used as independent variables. The simplest model formulations, multivariate models (1) were mainly based on tree diameter and height as independent variables. In more elaborated multivariate models, (2) and (3), additional commonly measured tree variables such as age, crown length, bark thickness and radial growth rate were added. Tree biomass modelling includes consecutive phases, which cause unreliability in the prediction of biomass. First, biomasses of sample trees should be determined reliably to decrease the statistical errors caused by sub-sampling. In this study, methods to improve the accuracy of stem biomass estimates of the sample trees were developed. In addition, the reliability of the method applied to estimate sample-tree crown biomass was tested, and no systematic error was detected. Second, the whole information content of data should be utilized in order to achieve reliable parameter estimates and applicable and flexible model structure. In the modelling approach, the basic assumption was that the biomasses of

  6. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources.......The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...

  7. Decision tree modeling using R.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongheng

    2016-08-01

    In machine learning field, decision tree learner is powerful and easy to interpret. It employs recursive binary partitioning algorithm that splits the sample in partitioning variable with the strongest association with the response variable. The process continues until some stopping criteria are met. In the example I focus on conditional inference tree, which incorporates tree-structured regression models into conditional inference procedures. While growing a single tree is subject to small changes in the training data, random forests procedure is introduced to address this problem. The sources of diversity for random forests come from the random sampling and restricted set of input variables to be selected. Finally, I introduce R functions to perform model based recursive partitioning. This method incorporates recursive partitioning into conventional parametric model building.

  8. Identification and classification of dynamic event tree scenarios via possibilistic clustering: application to a steam generator tube rupture event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercurio, D; Podofillini, L; Zio, E; Dang, V N

    2009-11-01

    This paper illustrates a method to identify and classify scenarios generated in a dynamic event tree (DET) analysis. Identification and classification are carried out by means of an evolutionary possibilistic fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm which takes into account not only the final system states but also the timing of the events and the process evolution. An application is considered with regards to the scenarios generated following a steam generator tube rupture in a nuclear power plant. The scenarios are generated by the accident dynamic simulator (ADS), coupled to a RELAP code that simulates the thermo-hydraulic behavior of the plant and to an operators' crew model, which simulates their cognitive and procedures-guided responses. A set of 60 scenarios has been generated by the ADS DET tool. The classification approach has grouped the 60 scenarios into 4 classes of dominant scenarios, one of which was not anticipated a priori but was "discovered" by the classifier. The proposed approach may be considered as a first effort towards the application of identification and classification approaches to scenarios post-processing for real-scale dynamic safety assessments.

  9. Modeling and Understanding Time-Evolving Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riccardo Melen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of modeling application scenarios characterized by variability over time and involving heterogeneous kinds of knowledge. The evolution of distributed technologies creates new and challenging possibilities of integrating different kinds of problem solving methods, obtaining many benefits from the user point of view. In particular, we propose here a multilayer modeling system and adopt the Knowledge Artifact concept to tie together statistical and Artificial Intelligence rule-based methods to tackle problems in ubiquitous and distributed scenarios.

  10. Cubic time algorithms of amalgamating gene trees and building evolutionary scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background A long recognized problem is the inference of the supertree S that amalgamates a given set {Gj} of trees Gj, with leaves in each Gj being assigned homologous elements. We ground on an approach to find the tree S by minimizing the total cost of mappings αj of individual gene trees Gj into S. Traditionally, this cost is defined basically as a sum of duplications and gaps in each αj. The classical problem is to minimize the total cost, where S runs over the set of all trees that contain an exhaustive non-redundant set of species from all input Gj. Results We suggest a reformulation of the classical NP-hard problem of building a supertree in terms of the global minimization of the same cost functional but only over species trees S that consist of clades belonging to a fixed set P (e.g., an exhaustive set of clades in all Gj). We developed a deterministic solving algorithm with a low degree polynomial (typically cubic) time complexity with respect to the size of input data. We define an extensive set of elementary evolutionary events and suggest an original definition of mapping β of tree G into tree S. We introduce the cost functional c(G, S, f ) and define the mapping β as the global minimum of this functional with respect to the variable f, in which sense it is a generalization of classical mapping α. We suggest a reformulation of the classical NP-hard mapping (reconciliation) problem by introducing time slices into the species tree S and present a cubic time solving algorithm to compute the mapping β. We introduce two novel definitions of the evolutionary scenario based on mapping β or a random process of gene evolution along a species tree. Conclusions Developed algorithms are mathematically proved, which justifies the following statements. The supertree building algorithm finds exactly the global minimum of the total cost if only gene duplications and losses are allowed and the given sets of gene trees satisfies a certain condition. The mapping

  11. HASSET: a probability event tree tool to evaluate future volcanic scenarios using Bayesian inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobradelo, Rosa; Bartolini, Stefania; Martí, Joan

    2014-01-01

    Event tree structures constitute one of the most useful and necessary tools in modern volcanology for assessment of hazards from future volcanic scenarios (those that culminate in an eruptive event as well as those that do not). They are particularly relevant for evaluation of long- and short-term probabilities of occurrence of possible volcanic scenarios and their potential impacts on urbanized areas. In this paper, we introduce Hazard Assessment Event Tree (HASSET), a probability tool, built on an event tree structure that uses Bayesian inference to estimate the probability of occurrence of a future volcanic scenario and to evaluate the most relevant sources of uncertainty from the corresponding volcanic system. HASSET includes hazard assessment of noneruptive and nonmagmatic volcanic scenarios, that is, episodes of unrest that do not evolve into volcanic eruption but have an associated volcanic hazard (e.g., sector collapse and phreatic explosion), as well as unrest episodes triggered by external triggers rather than the magmatic system alone. Additionally, HASSET introduces the Delta method to assess precision of the probability estimates, by reporting a 1 standard deviation variability interval around the expected value for each scenario. HASSET is presented as a free software package in the form of a plug-in for the open source geographic information system Quantum Gis (QGIS), providing a graphically supported computation of the event tree structure in an interactive and user-friendly way. We also include further in-depth explanations for each node together with an application of HASSET to Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex (Spain).

  12. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  13. LCA Modeling of Waste Management Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2011-01-01

    Lifecycle assessment (LCA) modeling provides a quantitative statement about resource issues and environmental issues in waste management useful in evaluating alternative management systems and in mapping where major loads and savings take place within existing systems. Chapter 3.1 describes...... the concepts behind LCA modeling and Chapter 3.2 gives an overview of existing models and shows examples of their application. A recent comprehensive review of publicly available LCA studies (WRAP, 2006) concluded that, on a material basis, LCA modeling in general confirms the validity of the waste hierarchy...... and exchange with the energy systems, a comparison of results was hampered on a system level. In addition, differences in waste composition may affect the LCA results. This chapter provides results of LCA modeling of 40 waste management scenarios handling the same municipal waste (MSW) and using different...

  14. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  15. Anatomical modeling of the bronchial tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hentschel, Gerrit; Klinder, Tobias; Blaffert, Thomas; Bülow, Thomas; Wiemker, Rafael; Lorenz, Cristian

    2010-02-01

    The bronchial tree is of direct clinical importance in the context of respective diseases, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). It furthermore constitutes a reference structure for object localization in the lungs and it finally provides access to lung tissue in, e.g., bronchoscope based procedures for diagnosis and therapy. This paper presents a comprehensive anatomical model for the bronchial tree, including statistics of position, relative and absolute orientation, length, and radius of 34 bronchial segments, going beyond previously published results. The model has been built from 16 manually annotated CT scans, covering several branching variants. The model is represented as a centerline/tree structure but can also be converted in a surface representation. Possible model applications are either to anatomically label extracted bronchial trees or to improve the tree extraction itself by identifying missing segments or sub-trees, e.g., if located beyond a bronchial stenosis. Bronchial tree labeling is achieved using a naïve Bayesian classifier based on the segment properties contained in the model in combination with tree matching. The tree matching step makes use of branching variations covered by the model. An evaluation of the model has been performed in a leaveone- out manner. In total, 87% of the branches resulting from preceding airway tree segmentation could be correctly labeled. The individualized model enables the detection of missing branches, allowing a targeted search, e.g., a local rerun of the tree-segmentation segmentation.

  16. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  17. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  18. An empirical, hierarchical typology of tree species assemblages for assessing forest dynamics under global change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer K Costanza

    Full Text Available The composition of tree species occurring in a forest is important and can be affected by global change drivers such as climate change. To inform assessment and projection of global change impacts at broad extents, we used hierarchical cluster analysis and over 120,000 recent forest inventory plots to empirically define forest tree assemblages across the U.S., and identified the indicator and dominant species associated with each. Cluster typologies in two levels of a hierarchy of forest assemblages, with 29 and 147 groups respectively, were supported by diagnostic criteria. Groups in these two levels of the hierarchy were labeled based on the top indicator species in each, and ranged widely in size. For example, in the 29-cluster typology, the sugar maple-red maple assemblage contained the largest number of plots (30,068, while the butternut-sweet birch and sourwood-scarlet oak assemblages were both smallest (6 plots each. We provide a case-study demonstration of the utility of the typology for informing forest climate change impact assessment. For five assemblages in the 29-cluster typology, we used existing projections of changes in importance value (IV for the dominant species under one low and one high climate change scenario to assess impacts to the assemblages. Results ranged widely for each scenario by the end of the century, with each showing an average decrease in IV for dominant species in some assemblages, including the balsam fir-quaking aspen assemblage, and an average increase for others, like the green ash-American elm assemblage. Future work should assess adaptive capacity of these forest assemblages and investigate local population- and community-level dynamics in places where dominant species may be impacted. This typology will be ideal for monitoring, assessing, and projecting changes to forest communities within the emerging framework of macrosystems ecology, which emphasizes hierarchies and broad extents.

  19. An empirical, hierarchical typology of tree species assemblages for assessing forest dynamics under global change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costanza, Jennifer K; Coulston, John W; Wear, David N

    2017-01-01

    The composition of tree species occurring in a forest is important and can be affected by global change drivers such as climate change. To inform assessment and projection of global change impacts at broad extents, we used hierarchical cluster analysis and over 120,000 recent forest inventory plots to empirically define forest tree assemblages across the U.S., and identified the indicator and dominant species associated with each. Cluster typologies in two levels of a hierarchy of forest assemblages, with 29 and 147 groups respectively, were supported by diagnostic criteria. Groups in these two levels of the hierarchy were labeled based on the top indicator species in each, and ranged widely in size. For example, in the 29-cluster typology, the sugar maple-red maple assemblage contained the largest number of plots (30,068), while the butternut-sweet birch and sourwood-scarlet oak assemblages were both smallest (6 plots each). We provide a case-study demonstration of the utility of the typology for informing forest climate change impact assessment. For five assemblages in the 29-cluster typology, we used existing projections of changes in importance value (IV) for the dominant species under one low and one high climate change scenario to assess impacts to the assemblages. Results ranged widely for each scenario by the end of the century, with each showing an average decrease in IV for dominant species in some assemblages, including the balsam fir-quaking aspen assemblage, and an average increase for others, like the green ash-American elm assemblage. Future work should assess adaptive capacity of these forest assemblages and investigate local population- and community-level dynamics in places where dominant species may be impacted. This typology will be ideal for monitoring, assessing, and projecting changes to forest communities within the emerging framework of macrosystems ecology, which emphasizes hierarchies and broad extents.

  20. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  1. Interactive wood combustion for botanical tree models

    KAUST Repository

    Pirk, Sören

    2017-11-22

    We present a novel method for the combustion of botanical tree models. Tree models are represented as connected particles for the branching structure and a polygonal surface mesh for the combustion. Each particle stores biological and physical attributes that drive the kinetic behavior of a plant and the exothermic reaction of the combustion. Coupled with realistic physics for rods, the particles enable dynamic branch motions. We model material properties, such as moisture and charring behavior, and associate them with individual particles. The combustion is efficiently processed in the surface domain of the tree model on a polygonal mesh. A user can dynamically interact with the model by initiating fires and by inducing stress on branches. The flames realistically propagate through the tree model by consuming the available resources. Our method runs at interactive rates and supports multiple tree instances in parallel. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through numerous examples and evaluate its plausibility against the combustion of real wood samples.

  2. HASSET: a probability event tree tool to evaluate future volcanic scenarios using Bayesian inference. Presented as a plugin for QGIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobradelo, Rosa; Bartolini, Stefania; Martí, Joan

    2014-05-01

    Event tree structures constitute one of the most useful and necessary tools of modern volcanology to assess the volcanic hazard of future volcanic scenarios. They are particularly relevant to evaluate long- and short-term probabilities of occurrence of possible volcanic scenarios and their potential impacts on urbanized areas. Here we introduce HASSET, a Hazard Assessment Event Tree probability tool, built on an event tree structure that uses Bayesian inference to estimate the probability of occurrence of a future volcanic scenario, and to evaluate the most relevant sources of uncertainty from the corresponding volcanic system. HASSET includes hazard assessment of non-eruptive and non-magmatic volcanic scenarios, that is, episodes of unrest that do not evolve into volcanic eruption but have an associated volcanic hazard (eg. sector collapse and phreatic explosion), as well as those with external triggers as primary sources of unrest (as opposed to magmatic unrest alone). Additionally, HASSET introduces the Delta method to assess how precise the probability estimates are, by reporting a one standard deviation variability interval around the expected value for each scenario. HASSET is presented as a free software package in the form of a plugin for the open source geographic information system Quantum Gis (QGIS), providing a graphically supported computation of the event tree structure in an interactive and user-friendly way. We also include an example of HASSET applied to Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex (Spain).

  3. Tree models for macroevolution and phylogenetic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Graham R

    2011-12-01

    It has long been recognized that phylogenetic trees are more unbalanced than those generated by a Yule process. Recently, the degree of this imbalance has been quantified using the large set of phylogenetic trees available in the TreeBASE data set. In this article, a more precise analysis of imbalance is undertaken. Trees simulated under a range of models are compared with trees from TreeBASE and two smaller data sets. Several simple models can match the amount of imbalance measured in real data. Most of them also match the variance of imbalance among empirical trees to a remarkable degree. Statistics are developed to measure balance and to distinguish between trees with the same overall imbalance. The match between models and data for these statistics is investigated. In particular, age-dependent (Bellman-Harris) branching process are studied in detail. It remains difficult to separate the process of macroevolution from biases introduced by sampling. The lessons for phylogenetic analysis are clearer. In particular, the use of the usual proportional to distinguishable arrangements (uniform) prior on tree topologies in Bayesian phylogenetic analysis is not recommended.

  4. Model-Based Military Scenario Management for Defence Capability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gori, Ronnie; Chen, Pin; Pozgay, Angela

    2004-01-01

    .... This paper describes initial work towards the development of an information model that links scenario and capability related information, and the results of capability analysis and experimentation...

  5. Propagation models for non line-of-sight scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasu, A. S.; Anchidin, L.; Tamas, R.; Petrescu, T.

    2016-12-01

    The log-normal propagation model is usually applied for scenarios including a line-of-sight path. However, there are many cases that do not include such a propagation path, e.g. indoor transmission and disaster situations, when radio waves have to penetrate trough ruins. In this paper, we show that the log-normal model can also be applied for non line-of-sight transmission. Both indoor scenario and trough-ruins scenario, are investigated.

  6. Quantification of Scenario Distance within Generic WINNER Channel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Narandžić

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Starting from the premise that stochastic properties of a radio environment can be abstracted by defining scenarios, a generic MIMO channel model is built by the WINNER project. The parameter space of the WINNER model is, among others, described by normal probability distributions and correlation coefficients that provide a suitable space for scenario comparison. The possibility to quantify the distance between reference scenarios and measurements enables objective comparison and classification of measurements into scenario classes. In this paper we approximate the WINNER scenarios with multivariate normal distributions and then use the mean Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify their divergence. The results show that the WINNER scenario groups (A, B, C, and D or propagation classes (LoS, OLoS, and NLoS do not necessarily ensure minimum separation within the groups/classes. Instead, the following grouping minimizes intragroup distances: (i indoor-to-outdoor and outdoor-to-indoor scenarios (A2, B4, and C4, (ii macrocell configurations for suburban, urban, and rural scenarios (C1, C2, and D1, and (iii indoor/hotspot/microcellular scenarios (A1, B3, and B1. The computation of the divergence between Ilmenau and Dresden measurements and WINNER scenarios confirms that the parameters of the C2 scenario are a proper reference for a large variety of urban macrocell environments.

  7. Comprehensive decision tree models in bioinformatics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiglic, Gregor; Kocbek, Simon; Pernek, Igor; Kokol, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Classification is an important and widely used machine learning technique in bioinformatics. Researchers and other end-users of machine learning software often prefer to work with comprehensible models where knowledge extraction and explanation of reasoning behind the classification model are possible. This paper presents an extension to an existing machine learning environment and a study on visual tuning of decision tree classifiers. The motivation for this research comes from the need to build effective and easily interpretable decision tree models by so called one-button data mining approach where no parameter tuning is needed. To avoid bias in classification, no classification performance measure is used during the tuning of the model that is constrained exclusively by the dimensions of the produced decision tree. The proposed visual tuning of decision trees was evaluated on 40 datasets containing classical machine learning problems and 31 datasets from the field of bioinformatics. Although we did not expected significant differences in classification performance, the results demonstrate a significant increase of accuracy in less complex visually tuned decision trees. In contrast to classical machine learning benchmarking datasets, we observe higher accuracy gains in bioinformatics datasets. Additionally, a user study was carried out to confirm the assumption that the tree tuning times are significantly lower for the proposed method in comparison to manual tuning of the decision tree. The empirical results demonstrate that by building simple models constrained by predefined visual boundaries, one not only achieves good comprehensibility, but also very good classification performance that does not differ from usually more complex models built using default settings of the classical decision tree algorithm. In addition, our study demonstrates the suitability of visually tuned decision trees for datasets with binary class attributes and a high number of possibly

  8. Using conditional tree forests and life history traits to assess specific risks of stream degradation under multiple pressure scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondy, Cédric P; Usseglio-Polatera, Philippe

    2013-09-01

    The full accomplishment of the European Water Framework Directive objectives has required from EU members three successive steps: (i) the evaluation of their water body ecological status, (ii) the risk assessment of different anthropogenic pressure categories and (iii) the implementation of appropriate management and restoration programs. We aimed at designing an innovative retrospective ecological risk assessment (ERA) tool working for most of the French wadeable rivers in a context of multiple anthropogenic pressures (step ii). This tool, including conditional tree forest (CTF) models, was built on combinations of benthic macroinvertebrate trait-based metrics for each of sixteen anthropogenic pressure categories. For eleven pressure categories, CTF models have given good impairment risk assessment (i.e. AUC≥0.70), even at moderate risk level and in a multi-pressure context. The four other models have provided poorer but promising results (AUC=0.67±0.02). Identifying the potential weight of individual anthropogenic pressures that lead to biotic assemblage impairment in streams under multiple pressure scenario, is a key step for managers to implement appropriate stream restoration programs. Simultaneously considering the whole complexity of bio-ecological adaptations within biotic assemblages subjected to human pressures provides a functional diagnostic tool both (i) ecologically relevant and (ii) efficient for ERA. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. IMPACTS OF TREE HEIGHT-DBH ALLOMETRY ON LIDAR-BASED TREE ABOVEGROUND BIOMASS MODELING

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    R. Fang

    2016-01-01

    .... However, lidar measurements are mainly related to tree vertical structure. Therefore, tree height-dbh allometric model residuals are expected to have a large impact on lidar-based AGB model performance...

  10. Using Interaction Scenarios to Model Information Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars; Bøgh Andersen, Peter

    The purpose of this paper is to define and discuss a set of interaction primitives that can be used to model the dynamics of socio-technical activity systems, including information systems, in a way that emphasizes structural aspects of the interaction that occurs in such systems. The primitives...

  11. An empirical, hierarchical typology of tree species assemblages for assessing forest dynamics under global change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer K. Costanza; John W. Coulston; David N. Wear

    2017-01-01

    The composition of tree species occurring in a forest is important and can be affected by global change drivers such as climate change. To inform assessment and projection of global change impacts at broad extents, we used hierarchical cluster analysis and over 120,000 recent forest inventory plots to empirically define forest tree assemblages across the U.S., and...

  12. Scenario development for performance assessment - some questions for the near-field modelers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1993-12-31

    In an attempt to achieve completeness and consistency, the performance-assessment analyses developed by the Yucca Mountain Project are tied to scenarios described in event trees. Development of scenarios requires describing the constituent features, events, and processes in detail. Several features and processes occurring at the waste packages and the rock immediately surrounding the packages (i.e., the near field) have been identified: The effects of radiation on fluids in the near-field rock, the path-dependency of rock-water interactions, and the partitioning of contaminant transport between colloids and solutes. This paper discusses some questions regarding these processes that the near-field performance-assessment modelers will need to have answered to specify those portions of scenarios dealing with the near field.

  13. Scenario development for performance assessment: Some questions for the near-field modelers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.

    1992-12-31

    In an attempt to achieve completeness and consistency, the performance-assessment analyses developed by the Yucca Mountain Project are tied to scenarios described in event trees. Development of scenarios requires describing the constituent features, events, and processes in detail. Several features and processes occurring at the waste packages and the rock immediately surrounding the packages (i.e., the near field) have been identified: the effects of radiation on fluids in the near-field rock, the path-dependency of rock-water interactions, and the partitioning of contaminant transport between colloids and solutes. This paper discusses some questions regarding these processes that the near-field performance-assessment modelers will need to have answered to specify those portions of scenarios dealing with the near field.

  14. "Growing trees backwards": Description of a stand reconstruction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonathan D. Bakker; Andrew J. Sanchez Meador; Peter Z. Fule; David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore

    2008-01-01

    We describe an individual-tree model that uses contemporary measurements to "grow trees backward" and reconstruct past tree diameters and stand structure in ponderosa pine dominated stands of the Southwest. Model inputs are contemporary structural measurements of all snags, logs, stumps, and living trees, and radial growth measurements, if available. Key...

  15. Workflow Fault Tree Generation Through Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herbert, Luke Thomas; Sharp, Robin

    2014-01-01

    We present a framework for the automated generation of fault trees from models of realworld process workflows, expressed in a formalised subset of the popular Business Process Modelling and Notation (BPMN) language. To capture uncertainty and unreliability in workflows, we extend this formalism...... with probabilistic non-deterministic branching. We present an algorithm that allows for exhaustive generation of possible error states that could arise in execution of the model, where the generated error states allow for both fail-stop behaviour and continued system execution. We employ stochastic model checking...... of the system being modelled. From these calculations, a comprehensive fault tree is generated. Further, we show that annotating the model with rewards (data) allows the expected mean values of reward structures to be calculated at points of failure....

  16. A model of gas mixing into single-entrance tree cavities during wildland fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.S. Bova; G. Bohrer; Matthew Dickinson

    2011-01-01

    The level of protection to fauna provided by tree cavities during wildland fires is not well understood. Here we present a model for estimating the transport of combustion gases into cylindrical, single-entrance cavities during exposures caused by different wildland fire scenarios. In these shelters, the entrance occurs near the top of the cavity. This empirical model...

  17. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  18. Cost-effectiveness evaluation of bovine tuberculosis surveillance in wildlife in France (Sylvatub system) using scenario trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivière, Julie; Le Strat, Yann; Hendrikx, Pascal; Dufour, Barbara

    2017-01-01

    Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a common disease in cattle and wildlife, with health, zoonotic and economic implications. Infected wild animals, and particularly reservoirs, could hinder eradication of bTB from cattle populations, which could have an important impact on international cattle trade. Therefore, surveillance of bTB in wildlife is of particular importance to better understand the epidemiological role of wild species and to adapt the control measures. In France, a bTB surveillance system for free-ranging wildlife, the Sylvatub system, has been implemented since 2011. It relies on three surveillance components (SSCs) (passive surveillance on hunted animals (EC-SSC), passive surveillance on dead or dying animals (SAGIR-SSC) and active surveillance (PSURV-SSC)). The effectiveness of the Sylvatub system was previously assessed, through the estimation of its sensitivity (i.e. the probability of detecting at least one case of bTB infection by each SSC, specie and risk-level area). However, to globally assess the performance of a surveillance system, the measure of its sensitivity is not sufficient, as other factors such as economic or socio-economic factors could influence the effectiveness. We report here an estimation of the costs of the surveillance activities of the Sylvatub system, and of the cost-effectiveness of each surveillance component, by specie and risk-level, based on scenario tree modelling with the same tree structure as used for the sensitivity evaluation. The cost-effectiveness of the Sylvatub surveillance is better in higher-risk departments, due in particular to the higher probability of detecting the infection (sensitivity). Moreover, EC-SSC, which has the highest unit cost, is more efficient than the surveillance enhanced by the SAGIR-SSC, due to its better sensitivity. The calculation of the cost-effectiveness ratio shows that PSURV-SSC remains the most cost-effective surveillance component of the Sylvatub system, despite its high cost in

  19. A methodology for modeling barrier island storm-impact scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickey, Rangley C.; Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

    2017-02-16

    A methodology for developing a representative set of storm scenarios based on historical wave buoy and tide gauge data for a region at the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The total water level was calculated for a 10-year period and analyzed against existing topographic data to identify when storm-induced wave action would affect island morphology. These events were categorized on the basis of the threshold of total water level and duration to create a set of storm scenarios that were simulated, using a high-fidelity, process-based, morphologic evolution model, on an idealized digital elevation model of the Chandeleur Islands. The simulated morphological changes resulting from these scenarios provide a range of impacts that can help coastal managers determine resiliency of proposed or existing coastal structures and identify vulnerable areas within those structures.

  20. Storm-impact scenario XBeach model inputs and tesults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

    2017-01-01

    The XBeach model input and output of topography and bathymetry resulting from simulation of storm-impact scenarios at the Chandeleur Islands, LA, as described in USGS Open-File Report 2017–1009 (https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171009), are provided here. For further information regarding model input generation and visualization of model output topography and bathymetry refer to USGS Open-File Report 2017–1009 (https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171009).

  1. Search for Higgs boson in beyond standard model scenarios at ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The principal physics motivation of the LHC experiments is to search for the Higgs boson and to probe the physics of TeV energy scale. Potential of discovery for Higgs bosons in various scenarios beyond standard model have been estimated for both CMS and ATLAS experiments through detailed detector simulations.

  2. Workshop IV – Cosmology-theoretical models/alternative scenarios ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Workshop IV – Cosmology-theoretical models/alternative scenarios: A report. ASIT BANERJEE. ½ and REZA TAVAKOL. 2. ½. Department of Physics, Jadavpur University, Calcutta 700 032, India. ¾. Astronomy Unit, School of Mathematical Sciences, Queen Mary and Westfield College, Mile End. Road, London E1 4NS, UK.

  3. Visioning the Future: Scenarios Modeling of the Florida Coastal Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flower, Hilary; Rains, Mark; Fitz, Carl

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we provide screening-level analysis of plausible Everglades ecosystem response by 2060 to sea level rise (0.50 m) interacting with macroclimate change (1.5 °C warming, 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and rainfall that either increases or decreases by 10%). We used these climate scenarios as input to the Ecological Landscape Model to simulate changes to seven interactive hydro-ecological metrics. Mangrove forest and other marine influences migrated up to 15 km inland in both scenarios, delineated by the saltwater front. Freshwater habitat area decreased by 25-30% under our two climate change scenarios and was largely replaced by mangroves and, in the increased rainfall scenario, open water as well. Significant mangroves drowned along northern Florida Bay in both climate change scenarios due to sea level rise. Increased rainfall of 10% provided significant benefits to the spatial and temporal salinity regime within the marine-influenced zone, providing a more gradual and natural adjustment for at-risk flora and fauna. However, increased rainfall also increased the risk of open water, due to water depths that inhibited mangrove establishment and reduced peat accumulation rates. We infer that ecological effects related to sea level rise may occur in the extreme front-edge of saltwater intrusion, that topography will control the incursion of this zone as sea level rises, and that differences in freshwater availability will have ecologically significant effects on ecosystem resilience through the temporal and spatial pattern of salinity changes.

  4. A Simple Model for Estimating Total and Merchantable Tree Heights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan R. Ek; Earl T. Birdsall; Rebecca J. Spears

    1984-01-01

    A model is described for estimating total and merchantable tree heights for Lake States tree species. It is intended to be used for compiling forest survey data and in conjunction with growth models for developing projections of tree product yield. Model coefficients are given for 25 species along with fit statistics. Supporting data sets are also described.

  5. A hierarchical linear model for tree height prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicente J. Monleon

    2003-01-01

    Measuring tree height is a time-consuming process. Often, tree diameter is measured and height is estimated from a published regression model. Trees used to develop these models are clustered into stands, but this structure is ignored and independence is assumed. In this study, hierarchical linear models that account explicitly for the clustered structure of the data...

  6. Synchronization scenarios in the Winfree model of coupled oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallego, Rafael; Montbrió, Ernest; Pazó, Diego

    2017-10-01

    Fifty years ago Arthur Winfree proposed a deeply influential mean-field model for the collective synchronization of large populations of phase oscillators. Here we provide a detailed analysis of the model for some special, analytically tractable cases. Adopting the thermodynamic limit, we derive an ordinary differential equation that exactly describes the temporal evolution of the macroscopic variables in the Ott-Antonsen invariant manifold. The low-dimensional model is then thoroughly investigated for a variety of pulse types and sinusoidal phase response curves (PRCs). Two structurally different synchronization scenarios are found, which are linked via the mutation of a Bogdanov-Takens point. From our results, we infer a general rule of thumb relating pulse shape and PRC offset with each scenario. Finally, we compare the exact synchronization threshold with the prediction of the averaging approximation given by the Kuramoto-Sakaguchi model. At the leading order, the discrepancy appears to behave as an odd function of the PRC offset.

  7. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garb, Yaakov [Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, 84990 (Israel); Pulver, Simone [Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); VanDeveer, Stacy D [Department of Political Science, University of New Hamsphire, Durham, NH 03824 (United States)], E-mail: stacy.vandeveer@unh.edu

    2008-10-15

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  8. Dark matter scenarios in a constrained model with Dirac gauginos

    CERN Document Server

    Goodsell, Mark D.; Müller, Tobias; Porod, Werner; Staub, Florian

    2015-01-01

    We perform the first analysis of Dark Matter scenarios in a constrained model with Dirac Gauginos. The model under investigation is the Constrained Minimal Dirac Gaugino Supersymmetric Standard model (CMDGSSM) where the Majorana mass terms of gauginos vanish. However, $R$-symmetry is broken in the Higgs sector by an explicit and/or effective $B_\\mu$-term. This causes a mass splitting between Dirac states in the fermion sector and the neutralinos, which provide the dark matter candidate, become pseudo-Dirac states. We discuss two scenarios: the universal case with all scalar masses unified at the GUT scale, and the case with non-universal Higgs soft-terms. We identify different regions in the parameter space which fullfil all constraints from the dark matter abundance, the limits from SUSY and direct dark matter searches and the Higgs mass. Most of these points can be tested with the next generation of direct dark matter detection experiments.

  9. Kinetic modelling of runaway electrons in dynamic scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Stahl, A; Papp, G; Landreman, M; Fülöp, T

    2016-01-01

    Improved understanding of runaway-electron formation and decay processes are of prime interest for the safe operation of large tokamaks, and the dynamics of the runaway electrons during dynamical scenarios such as disruptions are of particular concern. In this paper, we present kinetic modelling of scenarios with time-dependent plasma parameters; in particular, we investigate hot-tail runaway generation during a rapid drop in plasma temperature. With the goal of studying runaway-electron generation with a self-consistent electric-field evolution, we also discuss the implementation of a conservative collision operator and demonstrate its properties. An operator for avalanche runaway-electron generation, which takes the energy dependence of the scattering cross section and the runaway distribution into account, is investigated. We show that the simpler avalanche model of Rosenbluth & Putvinskii [Nucl. Fusion 37, 1355 (1997)] can give very inaccurate results for the avalanche growth rate (either lower or hig...

  10. Modelling Sustainable Development Scenarios of Croatian Power System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pašičko, Robert; Stanić, Zoran; Debrecin, Nenad

    2010-05-01

    The main objective of power system sustainable development is to provide the security of electricity supply required to underpin economic growth and increase the quality of living while minimizing adverse environmental impacts. New challenges such as deregulation, liberalization of energy markets, increased competition on energy markets, growing demands on security of supply, price insecurities and demand to cut CO2 emissions, are calling for better understanding of electrical systems modelling. Existing models are not sufficient anymore and planners will need to think differently in order to face these challenges. Such a model, on the basis on performed simulations, should enable planner to distinguish between different options and to analyze sustainability of these options. PLEXOS is an electricity market simulation model, used for modeling electrical system in Croatia since 2005. Within this paper, generation expansion scenarios until 2020 developed for Croatian Energy Strategy and modeled in PLEXOS. Development of sustainable Croatian energy scenario was analyzed in the paper - impacts of CO2 emission price and wind generation. Energy Strategy sets goal for 1200 MW from wind power plants in 2020. In order to fully understand its impacts, intermittent nature of electricity generation from wind power plant was modeled. We conclude that electrical system modelling using everyday growing models has proved to be inevitable for sustainable electrical system planning in complex environment in which power plants operate today.

  11. Map-Based Channel Model for Urban Macrocell Propagation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose F. Monserrat

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of LTE towards 5G has started and different research projects and institutions are in the process of verifying new technology components through simulations. Coordination between groups is strongly recommended and, in this sense, a common definition of test cases and simulation models is needed. The scope of this paper is to present a realistic channel model for urban macrocell scenarios. This model is map-based and takes into account the layout of buildings situated in the area under study. A detailed description of the model is given together with a comparison with other widely used channel models. The benchmark includes a measurement campaign in which the proposed model is shown to be much closer to the actual behavior of a cellular system. Particular attention is given to the outdoor component of the model, since it is here where the proposed approach is showing main difference with other previous models.

  12. Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuzhyk Kateryna

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling. The paper presents a dynamic simulation system of sustainable development scenarios on farms using cognitive modeling. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect the sustainable development of farms. Its user provides answers to strategic issues connected with the level of farm sustainability over a long-term perspective of dynamic development. The work contains a description of the model structure as well as the results of simulations carried out on 16 farms in northern Ukraine. The results show that the process of sustainability is based mainly on the potential for innovation in agricultural production and biodiversity. The user is able to simulate various scenarios for the sustainable development of a farm and visualize the influence of factors on the economic and social situation, as well as on environmental aspects. Upon carrying out a series of simulations, it was determined that the development of farms characterized by sustainable development is based on additional profit, which serves as the main motivation for transforming a conventional farm into a sustainable one. Nevertheless, additional profit is not the only driving force in the system of sustainable development. The standard of living, market condition, and legal regulations as well as government support also play a significant motivational role.

  13. Sequence Tree Modeling for Combined Accident and Feed-and-Bleed Operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

    2016-05-15

    In order to address this issue, this study suggests the sequence tree model to analyze accident sequence systematically. Using the sequence tree model, all possible scenarios which need a specific safety action to prevent the core damage can be identified and success conditions of safety action under complicated situation such as combined accident will be also identified. Sequence tree is branch model to divide plant condition considering the plant dynamics. Since sequence tree model can reflect the plant dynamics, arising from interaction of different accident timing and plant condition and from the interaction between the operator action, mitigation system, and the indicators for operation, sequence tree model can be used to develop the dynamic event tree model easily. Target safety action for this study is a feed-and-bleed (F and B) operation. A F and B operation directly cools down the reactor cooling system (RCS) using the primary cooling system when residual heat removal by the secondary cooling system is not available. In this study, a TLOFW accident and a TLOFW accident with LOCA were the target accidents. Based on the conventional PSA model and indicators, the sequence tree model for a TLOFW accident was developed. If sampling analysis is performed, practical accident sequences can be identified based on the sequence analysis. If a realistic distribution for the variables can be obtained for sampling analysis, much more realistic accident sequences can be described. Moreover, if the initiating event frequency under a combined accident can be quantified, the sequence tree model can translate into a dynamic event tree model based on the sampling analysis results.

  14. A dynamic fault tree model of a propulsion system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hong; Dugan, Joanne Bechta; Meshkat, Leila

    2006-01-01

    We present a dynamic fault tree model of the benchmark propulsion system, and solve it using Galileo. Dynamic fault trees (DFT) extend traditional static fault trees with special gates to model spares and other sequence dependencies. Galileo solves DFT models using a judicious combination of automatically generated Markov and Binary Decision Diagram models. Galileo easily handles the complexities exhibited by the benchmark problem. In particular, Galileo is designed to model phased mission systems.

  15. Fast Automatic Precision Tree Models from Terrestrial Laser Scanner Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathias Disney

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new method for constructing quickly and automatically precision tree models from point clouds of the trunk and branches obtained by terrestrial laser scanning. The input of the method is a point cloud of a single tree scanned from multiple positions. The surface of the visible parts of the tree is robustly reconstructed by making a flexible cylinder model of the tree. The thorough quantitative model records also the topological branching structure. In this paper, every major step of the whole model reconstruction process, from the input to the finished model, is presented in detail. The model is constructed by a local approach in which the point cloud is covered with small sets corresponding to connected surface patches in the tree surface. The neighbor-relations and geometrical properties of these cover sets are used to reconstruct the details of the tree and, step by step, the whole tree. The point cloud and the sets are segmented into branches, after which the branches are modeled as collections of cylinders. From the model, the branching structure and size properties, such as volume and branch size distributions, for the whole tree or some of its parts, can be approximated. The approach is validated using both measured and modeled terrestrial laser scanner data from real trees and detailed 3D models. The results show that the method allows an easy extraction of various tree attributes from terrestrial or mobile laser scanning point clouds.

  16. Pruning Chinese trees : an experimental and modelling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeng, Bo

    2001-01-01

    Pruning of trees, in which some branches are removed from the lower crown of a tree, has been extensively used in China in silvicultural management for many purposes. With an experimental and modelling approach, the effects of pruning on tree growth and on the harvest of plant material were studied.

  17. The Importance of Tree Height in Estimating Individual Tree Biomass While Considering Errors in Measurements and Allometric Models

    OpenAIRE

    Phalla, Thuch; Ota, Tetsuji; Mizoue, Nobuya; Kajisa, Tsuyoshi; Yoshida, Shigejiro; Vuthy, Ma; Heng, Sokh

    2018-01-01

    This study evaluated the uncertainty of individual tree biomass estimated by allometric models by both including and excluding tree height independently. Using two independent sets of measurements on the same trees, the errors in the measurement of diameter at breast height and tree height were quantified, and the uncertainty of individual tree biomass estimation caused by errors in measurement was calculated. For both allometric models, the uncertainties of the individual tree biomass estima...

  18. Statistical Decision-Tree Models for Parsing

    CERN Document Server

    Magerman, D M

    1995-01-01

    Syntactic natural language parsers have shown themselves to be inadequate for processing highly-ambiguous large-vocabulary text, as is evidenced by their poor performance on domains like the Wall Street Journal, and by the movement away from parsing-based approaches to text-processing in general. In this paper, I describe SPATTER, a statistical parser based on decision-tree learning techniques which constructs a complete parse for every sentence and achieves accuracy rates far better than any published result. This work is based on the following premises: (1) grammars are too complex and detailed to develop manually for most interesting domains; (2) parsing models must rely heavily on lexical and contextual information to analyze sentences accurately; and (3) existing {$n$}-gram modeling techniques are inadequate for parsing models. In experiments comparing SPATTER with IBM's computer manuals parser, SPATTER significantly outperforms the grammar-based parser. Evaluating SPATTER against the Penn Treebank Wall ...

  19. Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez Meyer, Enrique; Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro R.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species. PMID:27732622

  20. Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israel Estrada-Contreras

    Full Text Available Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13. The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14. Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species.

  1. Evaluation of human thorax FE model in various impact scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jansová M.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The study focused on the validation of the 50th percentile male model — a detailed FE model of the thoracic segment of the human body developed within project Development of a Finite Element Model of the Human Thorax and Upper Extremities (THOMO co-funded by the European Commission (7th Framework Programme. The model response was tested in three impact scenarios: frontal, lateral and oblique. The resulting impactor contact force vs. time and chest deflection vs. time responses were compared with experimental results. The strain profile of the 5th rib was checked with lateral and oblique strain profiles from post-mortem human subject (PMHS experiments. The influence of heart and lungs on the mechanical response of the model was assessed and the material data configuration, giving the most biofidelic thorax behaviour, was identified.

  2. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  3. Growth models for tree stems and vines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bressan, Alberto; Palladino, Michele; Shen, Wen

    2017-08-01

    The paper introduces a PDE model for the growth of a tree stem or a vine. The equations describe the elongation due to cell growth, and the response to gravity and to external obstacles. An additional term accounts for the tendency of a vine to curl around branches of other plants. When obstacles are present, the model takes the form of a differential inclusion with state constraints. At each time t, a cone of admissible reactions is determined by the minimization of an elastic deformation energy. The main theorem shows that local solutions exist and can be prolonged globally in time, except when a specific ;breakdown configuration; is reached. Approximate solutions are constructed by an operator-splitting technique. Some numerical simulations are provided at the end of the paper.

  4. Biophysical modelling of intra-ring variations in tracheid features and wood density of Pinus pinaster trees exposed to seasonal droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah Wilkinson; Jerome Ogee; Jean-Christophe Domec; Mark Rayment; Lisa Wingate

    2015-01-01

    Process-based models that link seasonally varying environmental signals to morphological features within tree rings are essential tools to predict tree growth response and commercially important wood quality traits under future climate scenarios. This study evaluated model portrayal of radial growth and wood anatomy observations within a mature maritime pine (Pinus...

  5. A spatial model of tree α-diversity and tree density for the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ter Steege, H.; Pitman, N.C.A.; Sabatier, D.; Castellanos, H.; van der Hout, P.; Daly, D.C.; Silveira, M.; Phillips, O.; Vasquez, R.; van Andel, T.; Duivenvoorden, J.; de Oliveira, A.A.; Ek, R.; Lilwah, R.; Thomas, R.; van Essen, J.; Baider, C.; Maas, P.; Mori, S.; Terborgh, J.; Nuñez-Vargas, P.; Mogollón, H.; Morawetz, W.

    2003-01-01

    Large-scale patterns of Amazonian biodiversity have until now been obscured by a sparse and scattered inventory record. Here we present the first comprehensive spatial model of tree α-diversity and tree density in Amazonian rainforests, based on the largest-yet compilation of forest inventories and

  6. Inferring gene regression networks with model trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aguilar-Ruiz Jesus S

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Novel strategies are required in order to handle the huge amount of data produced by microarray technologies. To infer gene regulatory networks, the first step is to find direct regulatory relationships between genes building the so-called gene co-expression networks. They are typically generated using correlation statistics as pairwise similarity measures. Correlation-based methods are very useful in order to determine whether two genes have a strong global similarity but do not detect local similarities. Results We propose model trees as a method to identify gene interaction networks. While correlation-based methods analyze each pair of genes, in our approach we generate a single regression tree for each gene from the remaining genes. Finally, a graph from all the relationships among output and input genes is built taking into account whether the pair of genes is statistically significant. For this reason we apply a statistical procedure to control the false discovery rate. The performance of our approach, named REGNET, is experimentally tested on two well-known data sets: Saccharomyces Cerevisiae and E.coli data set. First, the biological coherence of the results are tested. Second the E.coli transcriptional network (in the Regulon database is used as control to compare the results to that of a correlation-based method. This experiment shows that REGNET performs more accurately at detecting true gene associations than the Pearson and Spearman zeroth and first-order correlation-based methods. Conclusions REGNET generates gene association networks from gene expression data, and differs from correlation-based methods in that the relationship between one gene and others is calculated simultaneously. Model trees are very useful techniques to estimate the numerical values for the target genes by linear regression functions. They are very often more precise than linear regression models because they can add just different linear

  7. Modelling diameter growth, mortality and recruitment of trees in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Individual tree diameter growth and mortality models, and area-based recruitment models were developed. The modelling was based on data from 117 permanent sample plots established between 1997 and 2009 on seven sites in the Iringa and Manyara regions. The data set comprised 2 314 trees at establishment and 4 ...

  8. Methodology Using MELCOR Code to Model Proposed Hazard Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gavin Hawkley

    2010-07-01

    This study demonstrates a methodology for using the MELCOR code to model a proposed hazard scenario within a building containing radioactive powder, and the subsequent evaluation of a leak path factor (LPF) (or the amount of respirable material which that escapes a facility into the outside environment), implicit in the scenario. This LPF evaluation will analyzes the basis and applicability of an assumed standard multiplication of 0.5 × 0.5 (in which 0.5 represents the amount of material assumed to leave one area and enter another), for calculating an LPF value. The outside release is dependsent upon the ventilation/filtration system, both filtered and un-filtered, and from other pathways from the building, such as doorways (, both open and closed). This study is presents ed to show how the multiple leak path factorsLPFs from the interior building can be evaluated in a combinatory process in which a total leak path factorLPF is calculated, thus addressing the assumed multiplication, and allowing for the designation and assessment of a respirable source term (ST) for later consequence analysis, in which: the propagation of material released into the environmental atmosphere can be modeled and the dose received by a receptor placed downwind can be estimated and the distance adjusted to maintains such exposures as low as reasonably achievableALARA.. Also, this study will briefly addresses particle characteristics thatwhich affect atmospheric particle dispersion, and compares this dispersion with leak path factorLPF methodology.

  9. A model for the inverse 1-median problem on trees under uncertain costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kien Trung Nguyen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider the problem of justifying vertex weights of a tree under uncertain costs so that a prespecified vertex become optimal and the total cost should be optimal in the uncertainty scenario. We propose a model which delivers the information about the optimal cost which respect to each confidence level \\(\\alpha \\in [0,1]\\. To obtain this goal, we first define an uncertain variable with respect to the minimum cost in each confidence level. If all costs are independently linear distributed, we present the inverse distribution function of this uncertain variable in \\(O(n^{2}\\log n\\ time, where \\(n\\ is the number of vertices in the tree.

  10. A tree shrew glioblastoma model recapitulates features of human glioblastoma

    OpenAIRE

    Tong, Yaohui; Hao, Junjun; Tu, Qiu; Yu, Hualin; Yan, Lanzhen; Li, Yuan; Lv, Longbao; Wang, Fei; Iavarone, Antonio; Zhao, Xudong

    2017-01-01

    Tupaia belangeri (tree shrew), an animal species whose genome has significantly higher similarity to primates than rodents, has been used in biomedical research. To generate animal models that reproduce the human tumors more faithfully than rodents, we present the first report of a cancer model mimicking human tumor genetics in tree shrew. By engineering a lentiviral system for the transduction of mutant H-Ras and a shRNA against tree shrew p53, we successfully generated malignant glioma in t...

  11. Channel Measurement and Modeling for 5G Urban Microcellular Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Peter

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In order to support the development of channel models for higher frequency bands, multiple urban microcellular measurement campaigns have been carried out in Berlin, Germany, at 60 and 10 GHz. In this paper, the collected data is uniformly analyzed with focus on the path loss (PL and the delay spread (DS. It reveals that the ground reflection has a dominant impact on the fading behavior. For line-of-sight conditions, the PL exponents are close to free space propagation at 60 GHz, but slightly smaller (1.62 for the street canyon at 10 GHz. The DS shows a clear dependence on the scenario (median values between 16 and 38 ns and a strong distance dependence for the open square and the wide street canyon. The dependence is less distinct for the narrow street canyon with residential buildings. This behavior is consistent with complementary ray tracing simulations, though the simplified model tends to overestimate the DS.

  12. Flood damage: a model for consistent, complete and multipurpose scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menoni, Scira; Molinari, Daniela; Ballio, Francesco; Minucci, Guido; Mejri, Ouejdane; Atun, Funda; Berni, Nicola; Pandolfo, Claudia

    2016-12-01

    Effective flood risk mitigation requires the impacts of flood events to be much better and more reliably known than is currently the case. Available post-flood damage assessments usually supply only a partial vision of the consequences of the floods as they typically respond to the specific needs of a particular stakeholder. Consequently, they generally focus (i) on particular items at risk, (ii) on a certain time window after the occurrence of the flood, (iii) on a specific scale of analysis or (iv) on the analysis of damage only, without an investigation of damage mechanisms and root causes. This paper responds to the necessity of a more integrated interpretation of flood events as the base to address the variety of needs arising after a disaster. In particular, a model is supplied to develop multipurpose complete event scenarios. The model organizes available information after the event according to five logical axes. This way post-flood damage assessments can be developed that (i) are multisectoral, (ii) consider physical as well as functional and systemic damage, (iii) address the spatial scales that are relevant for the event at stake depending on the type of damage that has to be analyzed, i.e., direct, functional and systemic, (iv) consider the temporal evolution of damage and finally (v) allow damage mechanisms and root causes to be understood. All the above features are key for the multi-usability of resulting flood scenarios. The model allows, on the one hand, the rationalization of efforts currently implemented in ex post damage assessments, also with the objective of better programming financial resources that will be needed for these types of events in the future. On the other hand, integrated interpretations of flood events are fundamental to adapting and optimizing flood mitigation strategies on the basis of thorough forensic investigation of each event, as corroborated by the implementation of the model in a case study.

  13. Team Modelling: Review of Experimental Scenarios and Computational Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-09-01

    designed to be) Yes Yes No Yes (Model individuals, or sub-teams - groups of individuals.) 19 C3TRACE* (Command, Control, and Communicatio ...radar sensors, satellites, c2 structures, jammers, communicatio ns networks and devices, and fire support) Depends (EADSIM normally models at

  14. Boosted Regression Tree Models to Explain Watershed ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boosted regression tree (BRT) models were developed to quantify the nonlinear relationships between landscape variables and nutrient concentrations in a mesoscale mixed land cover watershed during base-flow conditions. Factors that affect instream biological components, based on the Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI), were also analyzed. Seasonal BRT models at two spatial scales (watershed and riparian buffered area [RBA]) for nitrite-nitrate (NO2-NO3), total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus (TP) and annual models for the IBI score were developed. Two primary factors — location within the watershed (i.e., geographic position, stream order, and distance to a downstream confluence) and percentage of urban land cover (both scales) — emerged as important predictor variables. Latitude and longitude interacted with other factors to explain the variability in summer NO2-NO3 concentrations and IBI scores. BRT results also suggested that location might be associated with indicators of sources (e.g., land cover), runoff potential (e.g., soil and topographic factors), and processes not easily represented by spatial data indicators. Runoff indicators (e.g., Hydrological Soil Group D and Topographic Wetness Indices) explained a substantial portion of the variability in nutrient concentrations as did point sources for TP in the summer months. The results from our BRT approach can help prioritize areas for nutrient management in mixed-use and heavily impacted watershed

  15. Modeling Caribbean tree stem diameters from tree height and crown width measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas Brandeis; KaDonna Randolph; Mike Strub

    2009-01-01

    Regression models to predict diameter at breast height (DBH) as a function of tree height and maximum crown radius were developed for Caribbean forests based on data collected by the U.S. Forest Service in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and Territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands. The model predicting DBH from tree height fit reasonably well (R2 = 0.7110), with...

  16. Assessing the Cooling Benefits of Tree Shade by an Outdoor Urban Physical Scale Model at Tempe, AZ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qunshan Zhao

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban green infrastructure, especially shade trees, offers benefits to the urban residential environment by mitigating direct incoming solar radiation on building facades, particularly in hot settings. Understanding the impact of different tree locations and arrangements around residential properties has the potential to maximize cooling and can ultimately guide urban planners, designers, and homeowners on how to create the most sustainable urban environment. This research measures the cooling effect of tree shade on building facades through an outdoor urban physical scale model. The physical scale model is a simulated neighborhood consisting of an array of concrete cubes to represent houses with identical artificial trees. We tested and compared 10 different tree densities, locations, and arrangement scenarios in the physical scale model. The experimental results show that a single tree located at the southeast of the building can provide up to 2.3 °C hourly cooling benefits to east facade of the building. A two-tree cluster arrangement provides more cooling benefits (up to 6.6 °C hourly cooling benefits to the central facade when trees are located near the south and southeast sides of the building. The research results confirm the cooling benefits of tree shade and the importance of wisely designing tree locations and arrangements in the built environment.

  17. Modeling percent tree canopy cover: a pilot study

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. Coulston; Gretchen G. Moisen; Barry T. Wilson; Mark V. Finco; Warren B. Cohen; C. Kenneth Brewer

    2012-01-01

    Tree canopy cover is a fundamental component of the landscape, and the amount of cover influences fire behavior, air pollution mitigation, and carbon storage. As such, efforts to empirically model percent tree canopy cover across the United States are a critical area of research. The 2001 national-scale canopy cover modeling and mapping effort was completed in 2006,...

  18. Beliefs and stochastic modelling of interest rate scenario risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galic, E.; Molgedey, L.

    2001-04-01

    We present a framework that allows for a systematic assessment of risk given a specific model and belief on the market. Within this framework the time evolution of risk is modeled in a twofold way. On the one hand, risk is modeled by the time discrete and nonlinear garch(1,1) process, which allows for a (time-)local understanding of its level, together with a short term forecast. On the other hand, via a diffusion approximation, the time evolution of the probability density of risk is modeled by a Fokker-Planck equation. Then, as a final step, using Bayes theorem, beliefs are conditioned on the stationary probability density function as obtained from the Fokker-Planck equation. We believe this to be a highly rigorous framework to integrate subjective judgments of future market behavior and underlying models. In order to demonstrate the approach, we apply it to risk assessment of empirical interest rate scenario methodologies, i.e. the application of Principal Component Analysis to the the dynamics of bonds.

  19. Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity survey pre-modeling tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, Neil; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Robinson, Judith L.; Slater, Lee D.; Halford, Keith J.; Binley, Andrew; Lane, John W.; Werkema, Dale

    2017-01-01

    Geophysical tools have much to offer users in environmental, water resource, and geotechnical fields; however, techniques such as electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) are often oversold and/or overinterpreted due to a lack of understanding of the limitations of the techniques, such as the appropriate depth intervals or resolution of the methods. The relationship between ERI data and resistivity is nonlinear; therefore, these limitations depend on site conditions and survey design and are best assessed through forward and inverse modeling exercises prior to field investigations. In this approach, proposed field surveys are first numerically simulated given the expected electrical properties of the site, and the resulting hypothetical data are then analyzed using inverse models. Performing ERI forward/inverse modeling, however, requires substantial expertise and can take many hours to implement. We present a new spreadsheet-based tool, the Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity (SEER), which features a graphical user interface that allows users to manipulate a resistivity model and instantly view how that model would likely be interpreted by an ERI survey. The SEER tool is intended for use by those who wish to determine the value of including ERI to achieve project goals, and is designed to have broad utility in industry, teaching, and research.

  20. A tree shrew glioblastoma model recapitulates features of human glioblastoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Yaohui; Hao, Junjun; Tu, Qiu; Yu, Hualin; Yan, Lanzhen; Li, Yuan; Lv, Longbao; Wang, Fei; Iavarone, Antonio; Zhao, Xudong

    2017-03-14

    Tupaia belangeri (tree shrew), an animal species whose genome has significantly higher similarity to primates than rodents, has been used in biomedical research. To generate animal models that reproduce the human tumors more faithfully than rodents, we present the first report of a cancer model mimicking human tumor genetics in tree shrew. By engineering a lentiviral system for the transduction of mutant H-Ras and a shRNA against tree shrew p53, we successfully generated malignant glioma in tree shrew. The tree shrew glioma exhibited aggressive behavior and a relatively short latency, and markedly reduced animal survival. Remarkably, the biological features of human high-grade glioma (necrosis, microvascular proliferation, pseudopalisading) were all present in tree shrew glioma. Furthermore, genetic analysis of tree shrew glioma revealed that the tumors were clustered within the mesenchymal subgroup of human glioblastoma multiforme. Compared with the corresponding mouse glioma, tree shrew gliomas were markedly more similar to human glioblastoma at gene expression profile. The tree shrew glioma model provides colleagues working in the field of gliomas and cancer in general with a more accurate animal model.

  1. Hazard Assessment for POPOCATÉPETL Volcano Using Hasset: a Probability Event Tree Tool to Evaluate Future Eruptive Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrés, D.; Reyes Pimentel, T. A.; Espinasa-Pereña, R.; Nieto, A.; Sobradelo, R.; Flores, X.; González Huesca, A. E.; Ramirez, A.

    2013-05-01

    -eruptive crisis of April-May 2012, in order to identify the most probable processes in which this unrest could have developed and to contribute to the diagnosis task. In this research, we propose a comparison between the processes identified in this preliminary volcanic event tree and another elaborated using a Hazard Assessment Event Tree probability tool (HASSET), built on a bayesian event tree structure, using mainly the information of the known eruptive history of Popocatépetl. The HASSET method is based on Bayesian Inference and is used to assess volcanic hazard of future eruptive scenarios, by evaluating the most relevant sources of uncertainty that play a role in estimating the future probability of occurrence of a specific volcanic event. The final goal is to find the most useful tools to make the diagnosis and prognosis of the Popocatépetl volcanic activity, integrating the known eruptive history of the volcano, the experience of the scientific committee and the information provided by the monitoring systems, in an interactive and user-friendly way.

  2. Impacts of Tree Height-Dbh Allometry on Lidar-Based Tree Aboveground Biomass Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, R.

    2016-06-01

    Lidar has been widely used in tree aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation at plot or stand levels. Lidar-based AGB models are usually constructed with the ground AGB reference as the response variable and lidar canopy indices as predictor variables. Tree diameter at breast height (dbh) is the major variable of most allometric models for estimating reference AGB. However, lidar measurements are mainly related to tree vertical structure. Therefore, tree height-dbh allometric model residuals are expected to have a large impact on lidar-based AGB model performance. This study attempts to investigate sensitivity of lidar-based AGB model to the decreasing strength of height-dbh relationship using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Striking decrease in R2 and increase in relative RMSE were found in lidar-based AGB model, as the variance of height-dbh model residuals grew. I, therefore, concluded that individual tree height-dbh model residuals fundamentally introduce errors to lidar-AGB models.

  3. Engineering of Algorithms for Hidden Markov models and Tree Distances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sand, Andreas

    of the algorithms to exploit the parallel architecture of modern computers. In this PhD dissertation, I present my work with algorithmic optimizations and parallelizations in primarily two areas in algorithmic bioinformatics: algorithms for analyzing hidden Markov models and algorithms for computing distance...... measures between phylogenetic trees. Hidden Markov models is a class of probabilistic models that is used in a number of core applications in bioinformatics such as modeling of proteins, gene finding and reconstruction of species and population histories. I show how a relatively simple parallelization can...... reconstruction methods or different data sets will often suggest slightly different trees. Distance measures for pairs of trees are therefore useful to measure the incongruence between two inferred trees quantitatively and to evaluate the predictive power of different tree reconstruction methods. I present my...

  4. Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José I. Barredo

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly, it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does the risk. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment of spatial trends provide planners with powerful tools for territorial decision making. However, until recently this type of model has been largely neglected in strategic planning for flood risk mitigation. Thus, ex-ante assessment of flood risk is an innovative application of land use change models. The aim of this paper is to propose a flood risk mitigation approach using exposure scenarios. The methodology is applied in the Pordenone province in northern Italy. In the past 50 years Pordenone has suffered several heavy floods, the disastrous consequences of which demonstrated the vulnerability of the area. Results of this study confirm that the main driving force of increased flood risk is found in new urban developments in flood-prone areas.

  5. Dust Plume Modeling at Fort Bliss: Full Training Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chapman, Elaine G.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Rutz, Frederick C.; Seiple, Timothy E.; Newsom, Rob K.; Allwine, K Jerry

    2006-09-26

    The potential for air quality impacts from heavy mechanized vehicles operating in the training ranges and on the unpaved main supply routes at Fort Bliss is being investigated. The investigation uses the atmospheric modeling system DUSTRAN to simulate fugitive dust emission and dispersion from typical activities occurring on the installation. This report conveys the results of DUSTRAN simulations conducted using a “Full Training” scenario developed by Fort Bliss personnel. he Full Training scenario includes simultaneous off-road activities of two full Heavy Brigade Combat Teams (HCBTs) and one HCBT battalion on three training ranges. Simulations were conducted for the six-day period, April 25-30, 2005, using previously archived meteorological records. Simulation results are presented in the form of 24-hour average PM10 plots and peak 1-hour PM10 concentration plots, where the concentrations represent contributions resulting from the specified military vehicular activities, not total ambient PM10 concentrations. Results indicate that the highest PM10 contribution concentrations occurred on April 30 when winds were light and variable. Under such conditions, lofted particulates generated by vehicular movement stay in the area of generation and are not readily dispersed. The effect of training duration was investigated by comparing simulations with vehicular activity extending over a ten hour period (0700 to 1700 MST) with simulations where vehicular activity was compressed into a one hour period (0700 to 0800 MST). Compressing all vehicular activity into one hour led to higher peak one-hour and 24-hour average concentration contributions, often substantially higher.

  6. Tree-based model checking for logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Xiaogang

    2007-05-10

    A tree procedure is proposed to check the adequacy of a fitted logistic regression model. The proposed method not only makes natural assessment for the logistic model, but also provides clues to amend its lack-of-fit. The resulting tree-augmented logistic model facilitates a refined model with meaningful interpretation. We demonstrate its use via simulation studies and an application to the Pima Indians diabetes data. Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Modelling the impact of nitrogen deposition, climate change and nutrient limitations on tree carbon sequestration in Europe for the period 1900–2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vries, de W.; Posch, M.

    2011-01-01

    We modelled the combined effects of past and expected future changes in climate and nitrogen deposition on tree carbon sequestration by European forests for the period 1900–2050. Two scenarios for deposition (current legislation and maximum technically feasible reductions) and two climate scenarios

  8. Status report on Corsica modeling for current drive scenario development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casper, T. A.; Crotinger, J.; Moller, J.M.; Pearlstein, L.D.

    1996-09-01

    This milestone report covers the progress and status of Corsica modeling for DIII-D experiments over the past year, since our previous report in September, 1995. During this time, we have concentrated on improvements to the code in support of our ability to do self-consistent, predictive modeling of DIII-D discharges. Our interest is in obtaining a tool, benchmarked with experimental data, for developing advanced tokamak operations scenarios including simulation and analysis of high performance negative central shear (NCS) discharges and control of the current profile evolution. Our major focus has been on installing and improving the neutral beam current drive mode in Corsica; this element is critical to modeling the evolution of DIII-D discharges. The NFREYA neutral beam deposition code was installed (starting with a version consistent with GA`s ONETWO code) and the capability for following particle orbits, including the effects of drifts, was added for determining the current driven by neutral beam -injection. In addition, improved methods for more easily integrating experimental profile measurements into the code operation and for calculating Z{sub eff} either from models or from impurity density measurements have been added. We have recently begun to turn on various transport models in our simulation of discharge evolution. We have concentrated on the NCS configuration and have simulated the evolution of two different high neutron reactivity discharges; an NCS discharge with L-mode edge and a single- null, weak NCS discharge from the JET/ITER/DIII-D equivalent shape experiments. Corsica simulation results for these discharges were presented at the EPS meeting in Kiev, Ukraine in June, 1996.

  9. Developing Models to Forcast Sales of Natural Christmas Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence D. Garrett; Thomas H. Pendleton

    1977-01-01

    A study of practices for marketing Christmas trees in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, and Denver, Colorado, revealed that such factors as retail lot competition, tree price, consumer traffic, and consumer income were very important in determining a particular retailer's sales. Analyses of 4 years of market data were used in developing regression models for...

  10. Massive-scale tree modelling from TLS data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raumonen, P.; Casella, E.; Calders, K.; Murphy, S.; Åkerblom, M.; Kaasalainen, M.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a method for reconstructing automatically the quantitative structure model of every tree in a forest plot from terrestrial laser scanner data. A new feature is the automatic extraction of individual trees from the point cloud. The method is tested with a 30-m diameter English oak

  11. DAG-based attack and defense modeling: don’t miss the forest for the attack trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kordy, Barbara; Piètre-Cambacédès, Ludovic; Schweitzer, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the current state of the art on attack and defense modeling approaches that are based on directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). DAGs allow for a hierarchical decomposition of complex scenarios into simple, easily understandable and quantifiable actions. Methods based on threat trees and

  12. From Tls Point Clouds to 3d Models of Trees: a Comparison of Existing Algorithms for 3d Tree Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bournez, E.; Landes, T.; Saudreau, M.; Kastendeuch, P.; Najjar, G.

    2017-02-01

    3D models of tree geometry are important for numerous studies, such as for urban planning or agricultural studies. In climatology, tree models can be necessary for simulating the cooling effect of trees by estimating their evapotranspiration. The literature shows that the more accurate the 3D structure of a tree is, the more accurate microclimate models are. This is the reason why, since 2013, we have been developing an algorithm for the reconstruction of trees from terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) data, which we call TreeArchitecture. Meanwhile, new promising algorithms dedicated to tree reconstruction have emerged in the literature. In this paper, we assess the capacity of our algorithm and of two others -PlantScan3D and SimpleTree- to reconstruct the 3D structure of trees. The aim of this reconstruction is to be able to characterize the geometric complexity of trees, with different heights, sizes and shapes of branches. Based on a specific surveying workflow with a TLS, we have acquired dense point clouds of six different urban trees, with specific architectures, before reconstructing them with each algorithm. Finally, qualitative and quantitative assessments of the models are performed using reference tree reconstructions and field measurements. Based on this assessment, the advantages and the limits of every reconstruction algorithm are highlighted. Anyway, very satisfying results can be reached for 3D reconstructions of tree topology as well as of tree volume.

  13. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Mathukumalli Srinivasa; Swathi, Pettem; Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha Rama; Rao, K V; Raju, B M K; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

    2015-01-01

    The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  14. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

    Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  15. Parallel family trees for transfer matrices in the Potts model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Cristobal A.; Canfora, Fabrizio; Hitschfeld, Nancy; Navarro, Gonzalo

    2015-02-01

    The computational cost of transfer matrix methods for the Potts model is related to the question in how many ways can two layers of a lattice be connected? Answering the question leads to the generation of a combinatorial set of lattice configurations. This set defines the configuration space of the problem, and the smaller it is, the faster the transfer matrix can be computed. The configuration space of generic (q , v) transfer matrix methods for strips is in the order of the Catalan numbers, which grows asymptotically as O(4m) where m is the width of the strip. Other transfer matrix methods with a smaller configuration space indeed exist but they make assumptions on the temperature, number of spin states, or restrict the structure of the lattice. In this paper we propose a parallel algorithm that uses a sub-Catalan configuration space of O(3m) to build the generic (q , v) transfer matrix in a compressed form. The improvement is achieved by grouping the original set of Catalan configurations into a forest of family trees, in such a way that the solution to the problem is now computed by solving the root node of each family. As a result, the algorithm becomes exponentially faster than the Catalan approach while still highly parallel. The resulting matrix is stored in a compressed form using O(3m ×4m) of space, making numerical evaluation and decompression to be faster than evaluating the matrix in its O(4m ×4m) uncompressed form. Experimental results for different sizes of strip lattices show that the parallel family trees (PFT) strategy indeed runs exponentially faster than the Catalan Parallel Method (CPM), especially when dealing with dense transfer matrices. In terms of parallel performance, we report strong-scaling speedups of up to 5.7 × when running on an 8-core shared memory machine and 28 × for a 32-core cluster. The best balance of speedup and efficiency for the multi-core machine was achieved when using p = 4 processors, while for the cluster

  16. Comparative evaluation of spectroscopic models using different multivariate statistical tools in a multicancer scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanate, A. D.; Kothiwale, S.; Singh, S. P.; Bertrand, Dominique; Krishna, C. Murali

    2011-02-01

    Cancer is now recognized as one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality. Histopathological diagnosis, the gold standard, is shown to be subjective, time consuming, prone to interobserver disagreement, and often fails to predict prognosis. Optical spectroscopic methods are being contemplated as adjuncts or alternatives to conventional cancer diagnostics. The most important aspect of these approaches is their objectivity, and multivariate statistical tools play a major role in realizing it. However, rigorous evaluation of the robustness of spectral models is a prerequisite. The utility of Raman spectroscopy in the diagnosis of cancers has been well established. Until now, the specificity and applicability of spectral models have been evaluated for specific cancer types. In this study, we have evaluated the utility of spectroscopic models representing normal and malignant tissues of the breast, cervix, colon, larynx, and oral cavity in a broader perspective, using different multivariate tests. The limit test, which was used in our earlier study, gave high sensitivity but suffered from poor specificity. The performance of other methods such as factorial discriminant analysis and partial least square discriminant analysis are at par with more complex nonlinear methods such as decision trees, but they provide very little information about the classification model. This comparative study thus demonstrates not just the efficacy of Raman spectroscopic models but also the applicability and limitations of different multivariate tools for discrimination under complex conditions such as the multicancer scenario.

  17. Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banta, Edward R.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable

  18. Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Khaja, Nawal

    2007-01-01

    This is a thematic lesson plan for young learners about palm trees and the importance of taking care of them. The two part lesson teaches listening, reading and speaking skills. The lesson includes parts of a tree; the modal auxiliary, can; dialogues and a role play activity.

  19. The modelling of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok

    2014-01-01

    . Transformation from a conventional fossil-fueled energy system to a 100% renewable energy system is not an easy task, however, it is a necessary goal to be attained. Academic and governmental bodies in Denmark have released several projects on future scenarios free from fossil fuel by year 2050. Three existing...... energy scenarios commonly conclude that a 100% renewable energy system in 2050 is feasible both technologically and economically. The three scenarios assume similar technology options, but different rates of usage. For example, the IDA 2050 scenario establishes an energy system dependent on more biomass...... there might be limits on the environmental capacity and opposition against biomass usage for societal and political reasons in the future. For clarifying better usage of biomass in a 100% renewable energy system, biomass usage for either heat production or electricity generation is compared in this thesis...

  20. RNA search with decision trees and partial covariance models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jennifer A

    2009-01-01

    The use of partial covariance models to search for RNA family members in genomic sequence databases is explored. The partial models are formed from contiguous subranges of the overall RNA family multiple alignment columns. A binary decision-tree framework is presented for choosing the order to apply the partial models and the score thresholds on which to make the decisions. The decision trees are chosen to minimize computation time subject to the constraint that all of the training sequences are passed to the full covariance model for final evaluation. Computational intelligence methods are suggested to select the decision tree since the tree can be quite complex and there is no obvious method to build the tree in these cases. Experimental results from seven RNA families shows execution times of 0.066-0.268 relative to using the full covariance model alone. Tests on the full sets of known sequences for each family show that at least 95 percent of these sequences are found for two families and 100 percent for five others. Since the full covariance model is run on all sequences accepted by the partial model decision tree, the false alarm rate is at least as low as that of the full model alone.

  1. Modeled and measured stable isotope data in Siberian tree rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidorova, Olga; Siegwolf, Rolf; Kupzova, Anna; Launois, Thomas; Peylin, Philippe; Spahni, Renato; Bryukhanova, Marina; Roden, John; Saurer, Matthias; Shashkin, Aleksander

    2013-04-01

    Stable isotopes in tree-rings are widely used for the reconstruction of environmental conditions, but more information could be extracted when using mechanistic models for their interpretation. Tree-ring width, cell wall structure and stable carbon as well as oxygen isotope analyses in tree wood and cellulose were carried out for four larch trees (Larix cajanderi Mayr) from northeastern Yakutia (69°N, 148°E) during the period from 1945 to 2004 and these data compared with several models. Based on a biochemical model of photosynthesis and modified model of stomatal conductance our work provides intra-annual dynamics of carbon content in photoassimilates and isotope composition in tree-rings depending on climatic factors. The mechanistic Roden-Lin-Ehleringer model was used to quantify both the physical and biochemical fractionation events associated with hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios in tree-ring cellulose. Simulation results were compared with measured data. Predictions of carbon isotope ratios from Fritts, ORCHIDEE and LPX models were consistent with measured data. The Roden-Lin-Ehleringer oxygen model allowed the prediction of humidity and source water enrichment as well as oxygen isotope effects associated with leaf water enrichment. This work was supported by Marie Curie Fellowships (EU-ISOTREC 235122; 909122) awarded to Sidorova Olga and a grant of Russian Scientific School 5327.2012.4.

  2. Discrete Discriminant analysis based on tree-structured graphical models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perez de la Cruz, Gonzalo; Eslava, Guillermina

    The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the potential use of discriminant analysis based on tree{structured graphical models for discrete variables. This is done by comparing its empirical performance using estimated error rates for real and simulated data. The results show that discriminant...... analysis based on tree{structured graphical models is a simple nonlinear method competitive with, and sometimes superior to, other well{known linear methods like those assuming mutual independence between variables and linear logistic regression....

  3. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  4. Description of selected global models for scenario studies on environmentally sustainable development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakkes JA; Grosskurt J; Ienburg AM; Rothman DS; Vuuren DP van; OECD; ICIS; MNV; ICIS; LAE

    2001-01-01

    This report provides a survey of past and present integrated models that have been used for the generation and analysis of global scenarios. It examines the usefulness of the models for scenario studies on environmentally sustainable development. It does so by evaluating the models in terms of inter

  5. Simultaneous geologic scenario identification and flow model calibration with group-sparsity formulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golmohammadi, Azarang; Jafarpour, Behnam

    2016-06-01

    Adopting representative geologic connectivity scenarios is critical for reliable modeling and prediction of flow and transport processes in subsurface environments. Geologic scenarios are often developed by integrating several sources of information, including knowledge of the depositional environment, qualitative and quantitative data such as outcrop and well logs, and process-based geologic modeling. In general, flow and transport response data are usually not included in constructing geologic scenarios for a basin. Instead, these data are typically matched using a given prior geologic scenario as constraint. Since data limitations, modeling assumptions and subjective interpretations can lead to significant uncertainty in the adopted geologic scenarios, flow and transport data may also be useful for constraining the uncertainty in proposed geologic scenarios. Constraining geologic scenarios with flow-related data opens an interesting and challenging research area, which goes beyond the traditional model calibration formulations where the geologic scenario is assumed given. In this paper, a novel concept, known as group-sparsity regularization, is proposed as an effective formulation to constrain the uncertainty in the prior geologic scenario during subsurface flow model calibration. Given a collection of model realizations from several plausible geologic scenarios, the proposed method first applies the truncated singular value decomposition (TSVD) to compactly represent the models from each geologic scenario. The TSVD basis for representing each scenario forms a distinct group. The proposed approach searches over these groups (i.e., geologic scenarios) to eliminate inconsistent groups that are not supported by the observed flow/pressure data. The group-sparsity regularization minimizes a l1/l2mixed norm, where the l2-norm quantifies the contribution of each group and operates on the coefficients within the groups while the l1-norm, having a selection property, is

  6. Modeling and Testing Landslide Hazard Using Decision Tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutasem Sh. Alkhasawneh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a decision tree model for specifying the importance of 21 factors causing the landslides in a wide area of Penang Island, Malaysia. These factors are vegetation cover, distance from the fault line, slope angle, cross curvature, slope aspect, distance from road, geology, diagonal length, longitude curvature, rugosity, plan curvature, elevation, rain perception, soil texture, surface area, distance from drainage, roughness, land cover, general curvature, tangent curvature, and profile curvature. Decision tree models are used for prediction, classification, and factors importance and are usually represented by an easy to interpret tree like structure. Four models were created using Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID, Exhaustive CHAID, Classification and Regression Tree (CRT, and Quick-Unbiased-Efficient Statistical Tree (QUEST. Twenty-one factors were extracted using digital elevation models (DEMs and then used as input variables for the models. A data set of 137570 samples was selected for each variable in the analysis, where 68786 samples represent landslides and 68786 samples represent no landslides. 10-fold cross-validation was employed for testing the models. The highest accuracy was achieved using Exhaustive CHAID (82.0% compared to CHAID (81.9%, CRT (75.6%, and QUEST (74.0% model. Across the four models, five factors were identified as most important factors which are slope angle, distance from drainage, surface area, slope aspect, and cross curvature.

  7. Considerations in linking energy scenario modeling and Life Cycle Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development (ORD) has been exploring approaches for estimating U.S. anthropogenic air pollutant emissions through the mid-21st century. As a result, we have developed the Emission Scenario Projection methodology, or ESP. In this document, we pr...

  8. Infinite Ergodic Index of the Ehrenfest Wind-Tree Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Málaga Sabogal, Alba; Troubetzkoy, Serge Eugene

    2017-12-01

    The set of all possible configurations of the Ehrenfest wind-tree model endowed with the Hausdorff topology is a compact metric space. For a typical configuration we show that the wind-tree dynamics has infinite ergodic index in almost every direction. In particular some ergodic theorems can be applied to show that if we start with a large number of initially parallel particles their directions decorrelate as the dynamics evolve, answering the question posed by the Ehrenfests.

  9. Choosing appropriate subpopulations for modeling tree canopy cover nationwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gretchen G. Moisen; John W. Coulston; Barry T. Wilson; Warren B. Cohen; Mark V. Finco

    2012-01-01

    In prior national mapping efforts, the country has been divided into numerous ecologically similar mapping zones, and individual models have been constructed for each zone. Additionally, a hierarchical approach has been taken within zones to first mask out areas of nonforest, then target models of tree attributes within forested areas only. This results in many models...

  10. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  11. A tree-parenchyma coupled model for lung ventilation simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozin, Nicolas; Montesantos, Spyridon; Katz, Ira; Pichelin, Marine; Vignon-Clementel, Irene; Grandmont, Céline

    2017-11-01

    In this article, we develop a lung ventilation model. The parenchyma is described as an elastic homogenized media. It is irrigated by a space-filling dyadic resistive pipe network, which represents the tracheobronchial tree. In this model, the tree and the parenchyma are strongly coupled. The tree induces an extra viscous term in the system constitutive relation, which leads, in the finite element framework, to a full matrix. We consider an efficient algorithm that takes advantage of the tree structure to enable a fast matrix-vector product computation. This framework can be used to model both free and mechanically induced respiration, in health and disease. Patient-specific lung geometries acquired from computed tomography scans are considered. Realistic Dirichlet boundary conditions can be deduced from surface registration on computed tomography images. The model is compared to a more classical exit compartment approach. Results illustrate the coupling between the tree and the parenchyma, at global and regional levels, and how conditions for the purely 0D model can be inferred. Different types of boundary conditions are tested, including a nonlinear Robin model of the surrounding lung structures. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Biomass models to estimate carbon stocks for hardwood tree species

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruiz-Peinado, R.; Montero, G.; Rio, M. del

    2012-11-01

    To estimate forest carbon pools from forest inventories it is necessary to have biomass models or biomass expansion factors. In this study, tree biomass models were developed for the main hardwood forest species in Spain: Alnus glutinosa, Castanea sativa, Ceratonia siliqua, Eucalyptus globulus, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus angustifolia, Olea europaea var. sylvestris, Populus x euramericana, Quercus canariensis, Quercus faginea, Quercus ilex, Quercus pyrenaica and Quercus suber. Different tree biomass components were considered: stem with bark, branches of different sizes, above and belowground biomass. For each species, a system of equations was fitted using seemingly unrelated regression, fulfilling the additivity property between biomass components. Diameter and total height were explored as independent variables. All models included tree diameter whereas for the majority of species, total height was only considered in the stem biomass models and in some of the branch models. The comparison of the new biomass models with previous models fitted separately for each tree component indicated an improvement in the accuracy of the models. A mean reduction of 20% in the root mean square error and a mean increase in the model efficiency of 7% in comparison with recently published models. So, the fitted models allow estimating more accurately the biomass stock in hardwood species from the Spanish National Forest Inventory data. (Author) 45 refs.

  13. Fruit tree model for uptake of organic compounds from soil

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trapp, Stefan; Rasmussen, D.; Samsoe-Petersen, L.

    2003-01-01

    rences: 20 [ view related records ] Citation Map Abstract: Apples and other fruits are frequently cultivated in gardens and are part of our daily diet. Uptake of pollutants into apples may therefore contribute to the human daily intake of toxic substances. In current risk assessment of polluted...... soils, regressions or models are in use, which were not intended to be used for tree fruits. A simple model for uptake of neutral organic contaminants into fruits is developed. It considers xylem and phloem transport to fruits through the stem. The mass balance is solved for the steady......-state, and an example calculation is given. The Fruit Tree Model is compared to the empirical equation of Travis and Arms (T&A), and to results from fruits, collected in contaminated areas. For polar compounds, both T&A and the Fruit Tree Model predict bioconcentration factors fruit to soil (BCF, wet weight based...

  14. Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  15. Development and application of a tree-code in simulation scenarios of the plasma-wall interaction; Entwicklung und Anwendung eines Tree-Codes in Simulationsszenarios der Plasma-Wand-Wechselwirkung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berberich, Benjamin

    2012-03-15

    Processes in the plasma edge layer of magnetic fusion devices occur on widely disparate length- and time-scales. Also recently developed features in this particular region, such as stochastic magnetic fields, underline the necessity for three dimensional, full-kinetic simulation tools. Contemporary programs often deploy ad hoc assumptions and approximations for microscopic phenomena for which self-consistent ab initio models in principle exist, but are still computationally too expensive or complex to implement. Recently, mesh-free methods have matured into a new class of tools for such first-principles computations which thanks to their geometric flexibility are highly promising for tackling complicated TOKAMAK regions. In this work we have develop the massively parallel Tree-Code PEPC-B (Pretty Efficient Parallel Coulomb solver) into a new tool for plasma material interaction studies. After a brief overview of the working principles of Tree-Codes two main topic groups are addressed: First the leap-frog Boris integration scheme is discussed and its numerical limitations are pointed out. To overcome these limitations the method is enhanced to a guiding-center integrator. As a proof of principal, numerical experiments are conducted reproducing the anticipated drift kinetic aspects of particle orbits. It turns out that this new technique is much less sensitive to large time steps than the original concept was. One major drawback of mesh-free methods which hinders their direct use for plasma-edge simulations is the difficulty in representing solid structures and associated boundary conditions. Therefore, an alternative concept is proposed using charge carrying Wall-Particles, which fits naturally in the mesh-free doctrine. These developments incorporate the second main topic group of this report. To prove the physical correctness of this new idea, a quasi one dimensional plasma-wall interface scenario is chosen. By studying the system with great detail, good agreement

  16. Stem hydraulic capacitance decreases with drought stress: implications for modelling tree hydraulics in the Mediterranean oak Quercus ilex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salomón, Roberto L; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Rodríguez-Calcerrada, Jesús; Steppe, Kathy

    2017-08-01

    Hydraulic modelling is a primary tool to predict plant performance in future drier scenarios. However, as most tree models are validated under non-stress conditions, they may fail when water becomes limiting. To simulate tree hydraulic functioning under moist and dry conditions, the current version of a water flow and storage mechanistic model was further developed by implementing equations that describe variation in xylem hydraulic resistance (R X ) and stem hydraulic capacitance (C S ) with predawn water potential (Ψ PD ). The model was applied in a Mediterranean forest experiencing intense summer drought, where six Quercus ilex trees were instrumented to monitor stem diameter variations and sap flow, concurrently with measurements of predawn and midday leaf water potential. Best model performance was observed when C S was allowed to decrease with decreasing Ψ PD . Hydraulic capacitance decreased from 62 to 25 kg m -3  MPa -1 across the growing season. In parallel, tree transpiration decreased to a greater extent than the capacitive water release and the contribution of stored water to transpiration increased from 2.0 to 5.1%. Our results demonstrate the importance of stored water and seasonality in C S for tree hydraulic functioning, and they suggest that C S should be considered to predict the drought response of trees with models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

  18. Summing up dynamics: modelling biological processes in variable temperature scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tijskens, L.M.M.; Verdenius, F.

    2000-01-01

    The interest of modelling biological processes with dynamically changing external conditions (temperature, relative humidity, gas conditions) increases. Several modelling approaches are currently available. Among them are approaches like modelling under standard conditions, temperature sum models

  19. Trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henri Epstein

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available An algebraic formalism, developed with V. Glaser and R. Stora for the study of the generalized retarded functions of quantum field theory, is used to prove a factorization theorem which provides a complete description of the generalized retarded functions associated with any tree graph. Integrating over the variables associated to internal vertices to obtain the perturbative generalized retarded functions for interacting fields arising from such graphs is shown to be possible for a large category of space–times.

  20. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2015-01-01

    model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across......Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death...... and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our...

  1. Estimation of Tree Cover in an Agricultural Parkland of Senegal Using Rule-Based Regression Tree Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanie M. Herrmann

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Field trees are an integral part of the farmed parkland landscape in West Africa and provide multiple benefits to the local environment and livelihoods. While field trees have received increasing interest in the context of strengthening resilience to climate variability and change, the actual extent of farmed parkland and spatial patterns of tree cover are largely unknown. We used the rule-based predictive modeling tool Cubist® to estimate field tree cover in the west-central agricultural region of Senegal. A collection of rules and associated multiple linear regression models was constructed from (1 a reference dataset of percent tree cover derived from very high spatial resolution data (2 m Orbview as the dependent variable, and (2 ten years of 10-day 250 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI composites and derived phenological metrics as independent variables. Correlation coefficients between modeled and reference percent tree cover of 0.88 and 0.77 were achieved for training and validation data respectively, with absolute mean errors of 1.07 and 1.03 percent tree cover. The resulting map shows a west-east gradient from high tree cover in the peri-urban areas of horticulture and arboriculture to low tree cover in the more sparsely populated eastern part of the study area. A comparison of current (2000s tree cover along this gradient with historic cover as seen on Corona images reveals dynamics of change but also areas of remarkable stability of field tree cover since 1968. The proposed modeling approach can help to identify locations of high and low tree cover in dryland environments and guide ground studies and management interventions aimed at promoting the integration of field trees in agricultural systems.

  2. Predicting climate change impacts on native and invasive tree species using radial growth and twenty-first century climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    González-Muñoz, N.; Linares, J.C.; Castro-Díez, P.; Sass-Klaassen, U.G.W.

    2014-01-01

    The climatic conditions predicted for the twenty-first century may aggravate the extent and impacts of plant invasions, by favouring those invaders more adapted to altered conditions or by hampering the native flora. We aim to predict the fate of native and invasive tree species in the oak forests

  3. Modeling tree crown dynamics with 3D partial differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, Robert; Letort, Véronique; Cournède, Paul-Henry

    2014-01-01

    We characterize a tree's spatial foliage distribution by the local leaf area density. Considering this spatially continuous variable allows to describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the tree crown by means of 3D partial differential equations. These offer a framework to rigorously take locally and adaptively acting effects into account, notably the growth toward light. Biomass production through photosynthesis and the allocation to foliage and wood are readily included in this model framework. The system of equations stands out due to its inherent dynamic property of self-organization and spontaneous adaptation, generating complex behavior from even only a few parameters. The density-based approach yields spatially structured tree crowns without relying on detailed geometry. We present the methodological fundamentals of such a modeling approach and discuss further prospects and applications.

  4. Modeling Tree Crown Dynamics with 3D Partial Differential Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert eBeyer

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available We characterize a tree's spatial foliage distribution by the local leaf area density. Considering this spatially continuous variable allows to describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the tree crown by means of 3D partial differential equations. These offer a framework to rigorously take locally and adaptively acting effects into account, notably the growth towards light. Biomass production through photosynthesis and the allocation to foliage and wood are readily included in this model framework. The system of equations stands out due to its inherent dynamic property of self-organization and spontaneous adaptation, generating complex behavior from even only a few parameters. The density-based approach yields spatially structured tree crowns without relying on detailed geometry. We present the methodological fundamentals of such a modeling approach and discuss further prospects and applications.

  5. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

    Science.gov (United States)

    The model performance evaluation consists of metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit measures that capture magnitude only, sequence only, and combined magnitude and sequence errors.

  6. Adaptive comfort model for tree-shaded outdoors in Taiwan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Reuy-Lung [Department of Architecture, National United University, 1 Lienda, Miaoli 360 (China); Lin, Tzu-Ping [Department of Leisure Planning, National Formosa University, 64 Wen-hua Road, Huwei, Yunlin 632 (China); Cheng, Ming-Jen; Lo, Jen-Hao [Department of Architecture, Feng Chia University, 100 Wen-hwa Road, Taichung 407 (China)

    2010-08-15

    Tree-shaded outdoors can reduce the heat effect by ameliorating the microclimate and enhancing the human thermal comfort outdoors; for this reason, they are main places for rest, recreation and social activity in Taiwan's cities. Field comfort surveys of 3839 interviewees were conducted in tree-shaded spaces throughout a year. The aims were to obtain a better understanding of human thermal comfort response outdoors and to propose an adaptive comfort model for tree-shaded spaces. A comfort zone, centering on neutral operative temperature which is an empirically derived linear function of mean monthly outdoor temperature, of 6 C for 90% acceptability and 8 C for 80% acceptability was suggested for tree-shaded spaces from surveyed data, adding that a non-linear function of the temperature difference between actual operative temperature and neutral operative temperature was established that aims to predict the percentage of heat or cold discomfort at a particular outdoor thermal condition. An application of the established adaptive comfort model on an actual tree-shaded space was demonstrated to show its practicality in long-term evaluation of a particular thermal environment. (author)

  7. "Growing trees backwards": Description of a stand reconstruction model (P-53)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonathan D. Bakker; Andrew J. Sanchez Meador; Peter Z. Fule; David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore

    2008-01-01

    We describe an individual-tree model that uses contemporary measurements to "grow trees backward" and reconstruct past tree diameters and stand structure in ponderosa pine dominated stands of the Southwest. Model inputs are contemporary structural measurements of all snags, logs, stumps, and living trees, and radial growth measurements, if available. Key...

  8. Effects of tree size and spatial distribution on growth of ponderosa pine forests under alternative management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    C.W. Woodall; C.E. Fiedler; R.E. McRoberts

    2009-01-01

    Forest ecosystems may be actively managed toward heterogeneous stand structures to provide both economic (e.g., wood production and carbon credits) and environmental benefits (e.g., invasive pest resistance). In order to facilitate wider adoption of possibly more sustainable forest stand structures, defining growth expectations among alternative management scenarios is...

  9. Electromagnetic Wave Propagation Models for Multiple-Diffraction Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Barış TABAKCIOĞLU

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Electromagnetic wave propagation models have been used for coverage estimation and field prediction at the receiver to make more reliable and efficient digital broadcasting systems. Propagation models can be classified into two groups as numerical and ray tracing based models. There is a tradeoff between computation time and accuracy of field prediction among electromagnetic wave propagation models. Although numerical models predict accurately, it requires more computation times. Ray tracing based models predicts the field strength less accurately with lower computation time. Many propagation models have been developed to provide optimum solution for accuracy and computation time

  10. Failed oceanic transform models: experience of shaking the tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerya, Taras

    2017-04-01

    In geodynamics, numerical modeling is often used as a trial-and-error tool, which does not necessarily requires full understanding or even a correct concept for a modeled phenomenon. Paradoxically, in order to understand an enigmatic process one should simply try to model it based on some initial assumptions, which must not even be correct… The reason is that our intuition is not always well "calibrated" for understanding of geodynamic phenomena, which develop on space- and timescales that are very different from our everyday experience. We often have much better ideas about physical laws governing geodynamic processes than on how these laws should interact on geological space- and timescales. From this prospective, numerical models, in which these physical laws are self-consistently implemented, can gradually calibrate our intuition by exploring what scenarios are physically sensible and what are not. I personally went through this painful learning path many times and one noteworthy example was my 3D numerical modeling of oceanic transform faults. As I understand in retrospective, my initial literature-inspired concept of how and why transform faults form and evolve was thermomechanically inconsistent and based on two main assumptions (btw. both were incorrect!): (1) oceanic transforms are directly inherited from the continental rifting and breakup stages and (2) they represent plate fragmentation structures having peculiar extension-parallel orientation due to the stress rotation caused by thermal contraction of the oceanic lithosphere. During one year (!) of high-resolution thermomechanical numerical experiments exploring various physics (including very computationally demanding thermal contraction) I systematically observed how my initially prescribed extension-parallel weak transform faults connecting ridge segments rotated away from their original orientation and get converted into oblique ridge sections… This was really an epic failure! However, at the

  11. Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sloth Madsen, M; Fox Maule, C; MacKellar, N

    2012-01-01

    Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study...... illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make...

  12. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    OpenAIRE

    B. B. B. Booth; D. Bernie; D. McNeall; E. Hawkins; J. Caesar; C. Boulton; P. Friedlingstein; D. Sexton

    2012-01-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concen...

  13. A Parse Tree Model for Analyzing And Detecting SQL Injection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-03-01

    Mar 1, 2013 ... Department of Computer Science,. University of ... a model based on grammatical structure of an SQL statement using parse tree to test a query by ... In SQL injection attacks, the attackers provide user input that results in a different database request than was intended by the application programmer [21].

  14. Modelling dimensional growth of three street tree species in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The results could also be used in the process of modelling energy use reduction, air pollution uptake, rainfall interception, carbon sequestration and microclimate modification of urban forests such as those found in the City of Tshwane. Keywords: allometry; regression; size relationships; tree growth; urban forests. Southern ...

  15. Ethnographic Decision Tree Modeling: A Research Method for Counseling Psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Kirk A.

    2005-01-01

    This article describes ethnographic decision tree modeling (EDTM; C. H. Gladwin, 1989) as a mixed method design appropriate for counseling psychology research. EDTM is introduced and located within a postpositivist research paradigm. Decision theory that informs EDTM is reviewed, and the 2 phases of EDTM are highlighted. The 1st phase, model…

  16. Modelling mite dynamics on apple trees in eastern North America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartman, J.M.; Werf, van der W.; Nyrop, J.P.

    1999-01-01

    The model described in this paper simulates seasonal dynamics of Panonychus ulmi and the phytoseiid predator Typhlodromus pyri on apple trees in Eastern North America. It was originally developed to understand the effect of weather, predation, cannibalism, alternate food for the predator, and uneven

  17. Based on user interest level of modeling scenarios and browse content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yang

    2017-08-01

    User interest modeling is the core of personalized service, taking into account the impact of situational information on user preferences, the user behavior days of financial information. This paper proposes a method of user interest modeling based on scenario information, which is obtained by calculating the similarity of the situation. The user's current scene of the approximate scenario set; on the "user - interest items - scenarios" three-dimensional model using the situation pre-filtering method of dimension reduction processing. View the content of the user interested in the theme, the analysis of the page content to get each topic of interest keywords, based on the level of vector space model user interest. The experimental results show that the user interest model based on the scenario information is within 9% of the user's interest prediction, which is effective.

  18. A Tree-Like Model for Brain Growth and Structure

    OpenAIRE

    Yan, Benjamin C.; Yan, Johnson F.

    2013-01-01

    The Flory-Stockmayer theory for the polycondensation of branched polymers, modified for finite systems beyond the gel point, is applied to the connection (synapses) of neurons, which can be considered highly branched “monomeric” units. Initially, the process is a linear growth and tree-like branching between dendrites and axons of nonself-neurons. After the gel point and at the maximum “tree” size, the tree-like model prescribes, on average, one pair of twin synapses per neuron. About 13% of ...

  19. Modeling the hydrological significance of wetland restoration scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Martinez, Edwin; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Woznicki, Sean A; Love, Bradley J

    2014-01-15

    Wetlands provide multiple socio-economic benefits, among them mitigating flood through short- and long-term water storage functions and assisting with reduction of downstream flood peaks. However, their effectiveness in controlling floods is dictated by wetland size and distribution within a watershed. Due to the complexity of wetland hydrological processes at the watershed scale, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to study the impact of wetland restoration on streamflow rates and peaks in the Shiawassee River watershed of Michigan. Wetland restoration scenarios were developed based on combinations of wetland area (50, 100, 250, and 500 ha) and wetland depth (15, 30, 61, and 91 cm). Increasing wetland area, rather than depth, had a greater impact on long-term average daily streamflow. Wetland implementation resulted in negligible reductions in daily peak flow rates and frequency of peak flow events at the watershed outlet. In developing high impact areas for wetland restoration, similar locations were identified for reduction of subbasin and watershed outlet streamflow. However, the best combinations of area/depth differed depending on the goal of the restoration plan. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Modelling Regional Energy Use for Evaluating Global Climate Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bollen JC; Toet AMC; Vries HJM de; Wijngaart RA van den; MTV

    1995-01-01

    The Energy-Economy model presented in this report is a submodel of the integrated IMAGE 2.1 model (Integrated Model for Analyzing Greenhouse Effects). The Energy-Economy submodel computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels

  1. A Tree-Like Model for Brain Growth and Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin C. Yan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Flory-Stockmayer theory for the polycondensation of branched polymers, modified for finite systems beyond the gel point, is applied to the connection (synapses of neurons, which can be considered highly branched “monomeric” units. Initially, the process is a linear growth and tree-like branching between dendrites and axons of nonself-neurons. After the gel point and at the maximum “tree” size, the tree-like model prescribes, on average, one pair of twin synapses per neuron. About 13% of neurons, “unconnected” to the maximum tree, migrate to the surface to form cortical layers. The number of synapses in each neuron may reach 10000, indicating a tremendous amount of flexible, redundant, and neuroplastic loop-forming linkages which can be preserved or pruned by experience and learning.

  2. Ecohydrological modeling: the consideration of agricultural trees is essential in the Mediterranean area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fader, Marianela; von Bloh, Werner; Shi, Sinan; Bondeau, Alberte; Cramer, Wolfgang

    2016-04-01

    In the Mediterranean region, climate and land use change are expected to impact on natural and agricultural ecosystems by warming, reduced rainfall and direct degradation of ecosystems. Human population growth and socioeconomic changes, notably on the Eastern and Southern shores, will require increases in food production and put additional pressure on agro-ecosystems and water resources. Coping with these challenges requires informed decisions that, in turn, require assessments by means of a comprehensive ecohydrological model. Here we present here the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants, mainly perennial crops, in an agro-ecosystem model (LPJmL, "Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land"): nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses. The model was then successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. A first application of the model indicates that, currently, agricultural trees consume in average more irrigation water per hectare than annual crops. Also, different crops show different magnitude of changes in net irrigation requirements due to climate change, being the increases most pronounced in agricultural trees. This is very relevant since the Mediterranean area as a whole might face an increase in gross irrigation requirements between 4% and 74% from climate change and population growth if irrigation systems and conveyance are not improved. Additionally, future water scarcity might pose further challenges to the agricultural sector: Algeria, Libya, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Serbia, Morocco, Tunisia and Spain have a high risk of not being able to sustainably meet future irrigation water requirements in some scenarios by the end of the century (1). The importance of including agricultural trees in the ecohydrological models is also shown in the results concerning soil organic carbon (SOC). Since in former model

  3. Climate change and socio-economic scenarios, land use modelling implications on water resources in an inner alpine area, Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, Emmanuel; Schneider, Flurina; Liniger, Hanspeter; Weingartner, Rolf; Herweg, Karl

    2014-05-01

    The MontanAqua project aims to study the water resources management in the region Sierre-Montana (Valais, Switzerland). Land use is known to have an influence on the water resources (soil moisture dynamic, soil sealing, surface runoff and deep percolation). Thus land use modelling is of importance for the water resources management. An actual land use map was produced using infrared imagery (Niklaus 2012, Fig.1). Land use changes are known to be mainly drived by socio-economic factors as well as climatic factors (Dolman et al. 2003). Potential future Land uses was separatly predicted according to 1-. socio-economic and 2-. climatic/abiotic drivers : 1. 4 socio-economic scenarios were developped with stakeholders (Schneider et al. 2013) between 2010 and 2012. We modeled those socio-economic scenarios into a GIS application using Python programming (ModelBuilder in ArcGIS 10) to get a cartographic transcription of the wishes of the stakeholders for their region in 2050. 2. Uncorrelated climatic and abiotic drivers were used in a BIOMOD2 (Georges et al. 2013) framework. 4 models were used: Maximum Entropy (MAXENT), Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) and the Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA) to predict grassland, alpine pasture, vineyards and forest in our study region. Climatic scenarios were then introduced into the models to predict potential land use in 2050 driven only by climatic and abiotic factors The comparison of all the outputs demonstrates that the socio-economic drivers will have a more important impact in the region than the climatic drivers (e.g. -70% grassland surface for the worst socio-economic scenario vs. -40% of grassland surface for the worst climatic models). Further analysis also brings out the sensitivity of the grassland/alpine pasture system to the climate change and to socio-economic changes. Future work will be to cross the different land use maps obtained by the two model types and to use

  4. Modeling forest carbon cycle response to tree mortality: Effects of plant functional type and disturbance intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frasson, Renato Prata de Moraes; Bohrer, Gil; Medvigy, David; Matheny, Ashley M.; Morin, Timothy H.; Vogel, Christoph S.; Gough, Christopher M.; Maurer, Kyle D.; Curtis, Peter S.

    2015-11-01

    Natural and anthropogenic disturbances influence ecological succession and impact the carbon cycle. Understanding disturbance effects and ecosystem recovery is essential to carbon modeling. We hypothesized that (1) species-specific disturbances impact the carbon cycle differently from nonspecific disturbances. In particular, disturbances that target early-successional species will lead to higher carbon uptake by the postrecovery, middle- and late-successional community and (2) disturbances that affect the midsuccessional deciduous species have more intense and long-lasting impacts on carbon uptake than disturbances of similar intensity that only affect the early-successional species. To test these hypotheses, we employed a series of simulations conducted with the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 to evaluate the sensitivity of a temperate mixed-deciduous forest to disturbance intensity and type. Our simulation scenarios included a control (undisturbed) case, a uniform disturbance case where we removed 30% of all trees regardless of their successional status, five cases where only early-successional deciduous trees were removed with increasing disturbance intensity (30%, 70%, 85%, and 100%), and four cases of midsuccessional disturbances with increasing intensity (70%, 85%, and 100%). Our results indicate that disturbances affecting the midsuccessional deciduous trees led to larger decreases in carbon uptake as well as longer recovery times when compared to disturbances that exclusively targeted the early-successional deciduous trees at comparable intensities. Moreover, disturbances affecting 30% to 100% of early-successional deciduous trees resulted in an increased carbon uptake, beginning 6 years after the disturbance and sustained through the end of the 100 year simulation.

  5. An exploration of scenarios to support sustainable land management using integrated environmental socio-economic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L.C.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the

  6. SMART-DS: Synthetic Models for Advanced, Realistic Testing: Distribution Systems and Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palmintier, Bryan: Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2017-01-26

    This presentation provides a Smart-DS project overview and status update for the ARPA-e GRID DATA program meeting 2017, including distribution systems, models, and scenarios, as well as opportunities for GRID DATA collaborations.

  7. LBA-ECO LC-14 Modeled Deforestation Scenarios, Amazon Basin: 2002-2050

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set provides the results of the two modeled scenarios for future patterns of deforestation across the Amazon Basin from 2002 to 2050. This larger...

  8. LBA-ECO LC-14 Modeled Deforestation Scenarios, Amazon Basin: 2002-2050

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides the results of the two modeled scenarios for future patterns of deforestation across the Amazon Basin from 2002 to 2050. This larger defined...

  9. Your Vision or My Model? Lessons from Participatory Land Use Scenario Development on a European Scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Volkery, Axel; Ribeiro, Teresa; Henrichs, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    -term alternative land use scenarios in cooperation with experts and modellers. The scenarios have been used in a formal outreach process with key clients and stakeholders at the European and Member State level afterwards. The aim of this paper is to document the methods used, analyse their strengths and weaknesses......Participatory processes in scenario development have received increasing attention throughout the last years. Combining qualitative stakeholder and quantitative expert information (i.e. modelling) offers unique opportunities to mix good data, scientific rigour, imagination and expertise from...

  10. Tree biomass in the Swiss landscape: nationwide modelling for improved accounting for forest and non-forest trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, B; Gomez, A; Mathys, L; Gardi, O; Schellenberger, A; Ginzler, C; Thürig, E

    2017-03-01

    Trees outside forest (TOF) can perform a variety of social, economic and ecological functions including carbon sequestration. However, detailed quantification of tree biomass is usually limited to forest areas. Taking advantage of structural information available from stereo aerial imagery and airborne laser scanning (ALS), this research models tree biomass using national forest inventory data and linear least-square regression and applies the model both inside and outside of forest to create a nationwide model for tree biomass (above ground and below ground). Validation of the tree biomass model against TOF data within settlement areas shows relatively low model performance (R 2 of 0.44) but still a considerable improvement on current biomass estimates used for greenhouse gas inventory and carbon accounting. We demonstrate an efficient and easily implementable approach to modelling tree biomass across a large heterogeneous nationwide area. The model offers significant opportunity for improved estimates on land use combination categories (CC) where tree biomass has either not been included or only roughly estimated until now. The ALS biomass model also offers the advantage of providing greater spatial resolution and greater within CC spatial variability compared to the current nationwide estimates.

  11. Meat consumption, production and land use : model implementation and scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woltjer, G.B.

    2011-01-01

    This report discusses simulations with the LEITAP model about opportunities to reduce land use as a consequence of changing meat consumption and production. In order to be able to generate plausible simulation results, the LEITAP model had to be adjusted. These changes are discussed in the first

  12. Model-based scenarios for rural electrification in developing countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijven, B. van; Schers, J.; Vuuren, D.P. van

    2012-01-01

    Promoting access to modern energy forms in developing countries to replace traditional fuels is high on the political agenda. This paper describes the development and application of a global model for rural electrification. The model is used to assess future trends in electrification, and the

  13. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-15

    Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

  14. Modelling Single Tree Structure with Terrestrial Laser Scanner

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yurtseven, H.; Akgül, M.; Gülci, S.

    2017-11-01

    Recent technological developments, which has reliable accuracy and quality for all engineering works, such as remote sensing tools have wide range use in forestry applications. Last decade, sustainable use and management opportunities of forest resources are favorite topics. Thus, precision of obtained data plays an important role in evaluation of current status of forests' value. The use of aerial and terrestrial laser technology has more reliable and effective models to advance the appropriate natural resource management. This study investigates the use of terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) technology in forestry, and also the methodological data processing stages for tree volume extraction is explained. Z+F Imager 5010C TLS system was used for measure single tree information such as tree height, diameter of breast height, branch volume and canopy closure. In this context more detailed and accurate data can be obtained than conventional inventory sampling in forestry by using TLS systems. However the accuracy of obtained data is up to the experiences of TLS operator in the field. Number of scan stations and its positions are other important factors to reduce noise effect and accurate 3D modelling. The results indicated that the use of point cloud data to extract tree information for forestry applications are promising methodology for precision forestry.

  15. Hierarchical models for informing general biomass equations with felled tree data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian J. Clough; Matthew B. Russell; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; Philip J. Radtke

    2015-01-01

    We present a hierarchical framework that uses a large multispecies felled tree database to inform a set of general models for predicting tree foliage biomass, with accompanying uncertainty, within the FIA database. Results suggest significant prediction uncertainty for individual trees and reveal higher errors when predicting foliage biomass for larger trees and for...

  16. Modeling Tree Shade Effect on Urban Ground Surface Temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Napoli, Marco; Massetti, Luciano; Brandani, Giada; Petralli, Martina; Orlandini, Simone

    2016-01-01

    There is growing interest in the role that urban forests can play as urban microclimate modifiers. Tree shade and evapotranspiration affect energy fluxes and mitigate microclimate conditions, with beneficial effects on human health and outdoor comfort. The aim of this study was to investigate surface temperature () variability under the shade of different tree species and to test the capability in predicting of a proposed heat transfer model. Surface temperature data on asphalt and grass under different shading conditions were collected in the Cascine park, Florence, Italy, and were used to test the performance of a one-dimensional heat transfer model integrated with a routine for estimating the effect of plant canopies on surface heat transfer. Shading effects of 10 tree species commonly used in Italian urban settings were determined by considering the infrared radiation and the tree canopy leaf area index (LAI). The results indicate that, on asphalt, was negatively related to the LAI of trees ( reduction ranging from 13.8 to 22.8°C). On grass, this relationship was weaker probably because of the combined effect of shade and grass evapotranspiration on ( reduction ranged from 6.9 to 9.4°C). A sensitivity analysis confirmed that other factors linked to soil water content play an important role in reduction of grassed areas. Our findings suggest that the energy balance model can be effectively used to estimate of the urban pavement under different shading conditions and can be applied to the analysis of microclimate conditions of urban green spaces. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  17. On the Impact of Building Attenuation Models in VANET Simulations of Urban Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Urquiza-Aguiar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Buildings are important elements of cities for VANETs, since these obstacles may attenuate communications between vehicles. Consequently, the impact of buildings has to be considered as part of the attenuation model in VANET simulations of urban scenarios. However, the more elaborated the model, the more information needs to be processed during the simulation, which implies longer processing times. This complexity in simulations is not always worth it, because simplified channel models occasionally offer very accurate results. We compare three approaches to model the impact of buildings in the channel model of simulated VANETs in two urban scenarios. The simulation results for our evaluation scenarios of a traffic-efficiency application indicate that modeling the influence of buildings in urban areas as the total absence of communication between vehicles gives similar results to modeling such influence in a more realistic fashion and could be considered a conservative bound in the performance metrics.

  18. Modeling synchronized calling behavior of Japanese tree frogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aihara, Ikkyu

    2009-07-01

    We experimentally observed synchronized calling behavior of male Japanese tree frogs Hyla japonica; namely, while isolated single frogs called nearly periodically, a pair of interacting frogs called synchronously almost in antiphase or inphase. In this study, we propose two types of phase-oscillator models on different degrees of approximations, which can quantitatively explain the phase and frequency properties in the experiment. Moreover, it should be noted that, although the second model is obtained by fitting to the experimental data of the two synchronized states, the model can also explain the transitory dynamics in the interactive calling behavior, namely, the shift from a transient inphase state to a stable antiphase state. We also discuss the biological relevance of the estimated parameter values to calling behavior of Japanese tree frogs and the possible biological meanings of the synchronized calling behavior.

  19. Business model scenarios for seamless content distribution and delivery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wehn de Montalvo, U.W.C.; Ballon, P.J.P.; Sokol, J.

    2005-01-01

    This paper addresses the issue of feasible business models for seamless multimedia content distribution and delivery over mobile, wireless and fixed networks. An open, interlayer approach to content delivery networks sets the scene for a great deal of flexibility in the value network for content

  20. Maintenance routing for train units: the scenario model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Maróti (Gábor); L.G. Kroon

    2004-01-01

    textabstractTrain units need regular preventive maintenance. Given the train units that require maintenance in the forthcoming 1--3 days, the rolling stock schedule must be adjusted so that these urgent units reach the maintenance facility in time. We present an integer programming model for this

  1. Fuel dispersal modeling for aircraft-runway impact scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tieszen, S.R.

    1995-11-01

    A fuel dispersal model for C-141 transport accidents was developed for the Defense Nuclear Agency`s Fuel Fire Technology Base Program to support Weapon System Safety Assessments. The spectrum of accidents resulting from aircraft impact on a runway was divided into three fuel dispersal regimes: low, intermediate, and high-velocity impact. Sufficient data existed in the accident, crash test, and fuel-filled bomb literature to support development of a qualitative framework for dispersal models, but not quantitative models for all regimes. Therefore, a test series at intermediate scale was conducted to generate data on which to base the model for the high-velocity regime. Tests were conducted over an impact velocity range from 12 m/s to 91 m/s and angles of impact from 22.5{degrees} to 67.5{degrees}. Dependent variables were area covered by dispersed fuel, amount of mass in that area, and location of the area relative to the impact line. Test results showed that no liquid pooling occurred for impact velocities greater than 61 m/s, independent of the angle of impact. Some pooling did occur at lower velocities, but in no test was the liquid-layer thickness greater than 5.25 mm.

  2. Upscaling with the dynamic two-layer classification concept (D2C: TreeMig-2L, an efficient implementation of the forest-landscape model TreeMig

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. M. S. Nabel

    2015-11-01

    according to pre-specified similarity criteria. I present how D2C can be used in a model implementation on the example of TreeMig-2L, a new, efficient version of the intermediate-complexity forest-landscape model TreeMig. To discuss the trade-off between computational expenses and accuracy, as well as the applicability of D2C, I compare different model stages of TreeMig-2L via simulations of two different application scenarios. This comparison of different model stages demonstrates that applying D2C can strongly reduce computational expenses of processes calculated on the new non-spatial layer. D2C is thus a valuable upscaling method for models and applications in which processes requiring information about the neighbourhood constitute the minor share of the overall computational expenses.

  3. Initial VHTR accident scenario classification: models and data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vilim, R. B.; Feldman, E. E.; Pointer, W. D.; Wei, T. Y. C.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2005-09-30

    Nuclear systems codes are being prepared for use as computational tools for conducting performance/safety analyses of the Very High Temperature Reactor. The thermal-hydraulic codes are RELAP5/ATHENA for one-dimensional systems modeling and FLUENT and/or Star-CD for three-dimensional modeling. We describe a formal qualification framework, the development of Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRTs), the initial filtering of the experiment databases, and a preliminary screening of these codes for use in the performance/safety analyses. In the second year of this project we focused on development of PIRTS. Two events that result in maximum fuel and vessel temperatures, the Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC) event and the Depressurized Conduction Cooldown (DCC) event, were selected for PIRT generation. A third event that may result in significant thermal stresses, the Load Change event, is also selected for PIRT generation. Gas reactor design experience and engineering judgment were used to identify the important phenomena in the primary system for these events. Sensitivity calculations performed with the RELAP5 code were used as an aid to rank the phenomena in order of importance with respect to the approach of plant response to safety limits. The overall code qualification methodology was illustrated by focusing on the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). The mixed convection mode of heat transfer and pressure drop is identified as an important phenomenon for Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) operation. Scaling studies showed that the mixed convection mode is likely to occur in the RCCS air duct during normal operation and during conduction cooldown events. The RELAP5/ATHENA code was found to not adequately treat the mixed convection regime. Readying the code will require adding models for the turbulent mixed convection regime while possibly performing new experiments for the laminar mixed convection regime. Candidate correlations for the turbulent

  4. Tree-ring analysis and modeling approaches yield contrary response of circumboreal forest productivity to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tei, Shunsuke; Sugimoto, Atsuko; Yonenobu, Hitoshi; Matsuura, Yojiro; Osawa, Akira; Sato, Hisashi; Fujinuma, Junichi; Maximov, Trofim

    2017-12-01

    Circumboreal forest ecosystems are exposed to a larger magnitude of warming in comparison with the global average, as a result of warming-induced environmental changes. However, it is not clear how tree growth in these ecosystems responds to these changes. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of forest productivity to climate change using ring width indices (RWI) from a tree-ring width dataset accessed from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank and gridded climate datasets from the Climate Research Unit. A negative relationship of RWI with summer temperature and recent reductions in RWI were typically observed in continental dry regions, such as inner Alaska and Canada, southern Europe, and the southern part of eastern Siberia. We then developed a multiple regression model with regional meteorological parameters to predict RWI, and then applied to these models to predict how tree growth will respond to twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5 scenario). The projections showed a spatial variation and future continuous reduction in tree growth in those continental dry regions. The spatial variation, however, could not be reproduced by a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). The DGVM projected a generally positive trend in future tree growth all over the circumboreal region. These results indicate that DGVMs may overestimate future wood net primary productivity (NPP) in continental dry regions such as these; this seems to be common feature of current DGVMs. DGVMs should be able to express the negative effect of warming on tree growth, so that they simulate the observed recent reduction in tree growth in continental dry regions. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Modeling intelligent agent beliefs in a card game scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gołuński, Marcel; Tomanek, Roman; WÄ siewicz, Piotr

    In this paper we explore the problem of intelligent agent beliefs. We model agent beliefs using multimodal logics of belief, KD45(m) system implemented as a directed graph depicting Kripke semantics, precisely. We present a card game engine application which allows multiple agents to connect to a given game session and play the card game. As an example simplified version of popular Saboteur card game is used. Implementation was done in Java language using following libraries and applications: Apache Mina, LWJGL.

  6. Estimation of Tree Lists from Airborne Laser Scanning Using Tree Model Clustering and k-MSN Imputation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jörgen Wallerman

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Individual tree crowns may be delineated from airborne laser scanning (ALS data by segmentation of surface models or by 3D analysis. Segmentation of surface models benefits from using a priori knowledge about the proportions of tree crowns, which has not yet been utilized for 3D analysis to any great extent. In this study, an existing surface segmentation method was used as a basis for a new tree model 3D clustering method applied to ALS returns in 104 circular field plots with 12 m radius in pine-dominated boreal forest (64°14'N, 19°50'E. For each cluster below the tallest canopy layer, a parabolic surface was fitted to model a tree crown. The tree model clustering identified more trees than segmentation of the surface model, especially smaller trees below the tallest canopy layer. Stem attributes were estimated with k-Most Similar Neighbours (k-MSN imputation of the clusters based on field-measured trees. The accuracy at plot level from the k-MSN imputation (stem density root mean square error or RMSE 32.7%; stem volume RMSE 28.3% was similar to the corresponding results from the surface model (stem density RMSE 33.6%; stem volume RMSE 26.1% with leave-one-out cross-validation for one field plot at a time. Three-dimensional analysis of ALS data should also be evaluated in multi-layered forests since it identified a larger number of small trees below the tallest canopy layer.

  7. Selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forest trees based on structural modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Ay, J. S.; Guillemot, J.; Doyen, L.; Leadley, P.

    2014-12-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global changes on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of applications on forest trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8km). We also compared the outputs of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM (i.e. Biomod ensemble modelling) in terms of bioclimatic response curves and potential distributions under current climate and climate change scenarios. The shapes of the bioclimatic response curves and the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between SSDM and classical SDMs, with contrasted patterns according to species and spatial resolutions. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents

  8. A CVAR scenario for a standard monetary model using theory-consistent expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    2017-01-01

    A theory-consistent CVAR scenario describes a set of testable regularities capturing basic assumptions of the theoretical model. Using this concept, the paper considers a standard model for exchange rate determination and shows that all assumptions about the model's shock structure and steady...... the long persistent swings in the real exchange rate and the interest rate differential....

  9. Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean-Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Iñaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

    2016-10-01

    The onset of the growing season of trees has been earlier by 2.3 days per decade during the last 40 years in temperate Europe because of global warming. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is, however, not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud endodormancy, and, on the other hand, higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cell growth afterward. Different process-based models have been developed in the last decades to predict the date of budbreak of woody species. They predict that global warming should delay or compromise endodormancy break at the species equatorward range limits leading to a delay or even impossibility to flower or set new leaves. These models are classically parameterized with flowering or budbreak dates only, with no information on the endodormancy break date because this information is very scarce. Here, we evaluated the efficiency of a set of phenological models to accurately predict the endodormancy break dates of three fruit trees. Our results show that models calibrated solely with budbreak dates usually do not accurately predict the endodormancy break date. Providing endodormancy break date for the model parameterization results in much more accurate prediction of this latter, with, however, a higher error than that on budbreak dates. Most importantly, we show that models not calibrated with endodormancy break dates can generate large discrepancies in forecasted budbreak dates when using climate scenarios as compared to models calibrated with endodormancy break dates. This discrepancy increases with mean annual temperature and is therefore the strongest after 2050 in the southernmost regions. Our results claim for the urgent need of massive measurements of endodormancy break dates in forest and fruit trees to yield more robust projections of phenological changes in a near future. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. UML Statechart Fault Tree Generation By Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herbert, Luke Thomas; Herbert-Hansen, Zaza Nadja Lee

    Creating fault tolerant and efficient process work-flows poses a significant challenge. Individual faults, defined as an abnormal conditions or defects in a component, equipment, or sub-process, must be handled so that the system may continue to operate, and are typically addressed by implementing...... trees are typically manually constructed and determining the probabilities of faults occurring in systems which exhibit stochastic behaviour in the course of their correct execution is difficult, time-consuming and error prone. Typically a FTA is based on an informal descrip-tion of the underlying...... probability of occurrence. Our method can determine the proba-bility of combined faults occurring, while accounting for the basic probabilistic structure of the system be-ing modelled. From these calculations, a comprehen-sive fault tree is generated. Further, we show that annotating the model with rewards...

  11. Modeling RIA scenarios with the FRAPTRAN and SCANAIR codes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sagrado Garcia, I. C.; Vallejo, I.; Herranz, L. E.

    2013-07-01

    The need of defining new RIA safety criteria has pointed out the importance of performing a rigorous assessment of the transient codes capabilities. The present work is a comparative exercise devoted to identify the origin of the key deviations found between the predictions of FRAPTRAN-1.4 and SCANAIR-7.1. To do so, the calculations submitted by CIEMAT to the OECD/NEA RIA benchmark have been exploited. This work shows that deviations in clad temperatures mainly come from the treatment of the oxide layer. The systematically higher deformations calculated by FRAPTRAN-1.4 in early failed tests are caused by the different gap closure estimation. Besides, the dissimilarities observed in the FGR predictions are inherent to the different modeling strategies adopted in each code.

  12. Modeling Flood & Drought Scenario for Water Management in Porali River Basin, Balochistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shoaib Ahmed

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent history shows that floods have become a frequently occurring disaster in Balochistan, especially during monsoon season. Two rivers, river Porali and river Kud overflows, inundating its banks and causing destruction to cultivated land and property. This study is an attempt to identify flood prone areas of Porali river basin for future flood scenario and propose possible reservoir locations for excess flood water storage. Computer-based models Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF and HEC-river analysis system (HEC-RAS are used as tools to simulate existing and future flood and drought scenarios. Models are calibrated and validated using data from 3 weather stations, namely Wadh, Bela, and Uthal and stream flow data from two gauging stations. The highest and the lowest 10 years of precipitation data are extracted, from historic dataset of all stations, to attain future flooding and drought scenarios, respectively. Flood inundation map is generated highlighting agricultural prone land and settlements of the watershed. Using Digital Elevation Model (DEM and volume of water calculated from the flood scenario, possible locations for reservoirs are marked that can store excess water for the use in drought years. Flow and volume of water has also been simulated for drought scenario. Analyses show that 3 × 109 m3 of water available due to immense flooding that is sufficient for the survival for one drought year, as the volume of water for latter scenario is 2.9 × 108m3.

  13. Enhanced UWB Radio Channel Model for Short-Range Communication Scenarios Including User Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kovacs, Istvan Zsolt; Nguyen, Tuan Hung; Eggers, Patrick Claus F.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we propose a SISO UWB radio channel model for short-range radio link scenarios between a fixed device and a dynamic user hand-held device. The channel model is derived based on novel experimental UWB radio propagation investigations carried out in typical indoor PAN scenarios...... including realistic device and user terminal antenna configurations. The radio channel measurements have been performed in the lower UWB frequency band of 3GHz to 5GHz with a 2x4 MIMO antenna configuration. Several environments, user scenarios and two types of user terminals have been used. The developed...... channel model represents an enhancement of the existing IEEE 802.15.3a/4a PAN channel model, where antenna and user-proximity effects are not included. Our investigations showed that significant variations of the received wideband power and time-delay signal clustering are possible due the human body...

  14. AERIS - applications for the environment : real-time information synthesis : eco-lanes operational scenario modeling report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    This report constitutes the detailed modeling and evaluation results of the Eco-Lanes Operational Scenario : defined by the Applications for the Environment: Real-Time Information Synthesis (AERIS) Program. The : Operational Scenario constitutes six ...

  15. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  16. Model-Based Design of Tree WSNs for Decentralized Detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Tantawy

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The classical decentralized detection problem of finding the optimal decision rules at the sensor and fusion center, as well as variants that introduce physical channel impairments have been studied extensively in the literature. The deployment of WSNs in decentralized detection applications brings new challenges to the field. Protocols for different communication layers have to be co-designed to optimize the detection performance. In this paper, we consider the communication network design problem for a tree WSN. We pursue a system-level approach where a complete model for the system is developed that captures the interactions between different layers, as well as different sensor quality measures. For network optimization, we propose a hierarchical optimization algorithm that lends itself to the tree structure, requiring only local network information. The proposed design approach shows superior performance over several contentionless and contention-based network design approaches.

  17. Formal analysis of executions of organizational scenarios based on process-oriented models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Popova, V.; Sharpanskykh, A.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents various formal techniques for analysis of executions of organizational scenarios based on process-oriented models of organizations. Process-oriented models describe (prescribe) ordering and timing relations on organizational processes, modes of use of resources, allocations of

  18. Introducing MOZLEAP: an integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahumane, G; Mulder, P.

    2016-01-01

    Since recently Mozambique is actively developing its large reserves of coal, natural gas and hydropower. Against this background, we present the first integrated long-run scenario model of the Mozambican energy sector. Our model, which we name MOZLEAP, is calibrated on the basis of recently

  19. Modeling Tree Mortality Following Wildfire in Pinus ponderosa Forests in the Central Sierra Nevada of California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan G. Conard; Jon C. Regelbrugge

    1993-01-01

    Abstract. We modeled tree mortality occurring two years following wildfire in Pinus ponderosa forests using data from 1275 trees in 25 stands burned during the 1987 Stanislaus Complex fires. We used logistic regression analysis to develop models relating the probability of wildfire-induced mortality with tree size and fire severity for Pinus ponderosa, Calocedrus...

  20. Modeling of urban trees' effects on reducing human exposure to UV radiation in Seoul, Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hang Ryeol Na; Gordon M. Heisler; David J. Nowak; Richard H. Grant

    2014-01-01

    A mathematical model isconstructed for quantifying urban trees’ effects on mitigating the intensity of ultraviolet (UV) radiation on the ground within different landuse types across a city. The model is based upon local field data, meteorological data and equations designed to predict the reduced UV fraction due to trees at the ground level. Trees in Seoul, Korea (2010...

  1. Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately under climate change conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Inaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

    2014-05-01

    or compromise dormancy break at the species equatorward range limits leading to a delay or even impossibility to flower or set new leaves. These models are classically parameterized with flowering or budburst dates only, with no information on the dormancy break date because this information is very scarce. We evaluated the efficiency of a set of process-based phenological models to accurately predict the dormancy break dates of four fruit trees. Our results show that models calibrated solely with flowering or budburst dates do not accurately predict the dormancy break date. Providing dormancy break date for the model parameterization results in much more accurate simulation of this latter, with however a higher error than that on flowering or bud break dates. But most importantly, we show also that models not calibrated with dormancy break dates can generate significant differences in forecasted flowering or bud break dates when using climate scenarios. Our results claim for the urgent need of massive measurements of dormancy break dates in forest and fruit trees to yield more robust projections of phenological changes in a near future.

  2. [Sectional structure of a tree. Model analysis of the vertical biomass distribution].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galitskiĭ, V V

    2010-01-01

    A model has been proposed for the architecture of a tree in which virtual trees appear rhythmically on the treetop. Each consecutive virtual tree is a part of the previous tree. The difference between two adjacent virtual trees is a section--an element of the real tree structure. In case of a spruce, the section represents a verticil of a stem with the corresponding internode. Dynamics of a photosynthesizing part of the physiologically active biomass of each section differ from the corresponding dynamics of the virtual trees and the whole real tree. If the tree biomass dynamics has a sigma-shaped form, then the section dynamics have to be bell-shaped. It means that the lower stem should accordingly become bare, which is typically observed in nature. Model analysis reveals the limiting, in the age, form of trees to be an "umbrella". It can be observed in nature and is an outcome of physical limitation of the tree height combined with the sigma-shaped form of the tree biomass dynamics. Variation of model parameters provides for various forms of the tree biomass distribution along the height, which can be associated with certain biological species of trees.

  3. Tsunami modeling Scenarios for the Western Black Sea, Shabla seismic area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partheniu, Raluca; Diaconescu, Mihai; Ioane, Dumitru; Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru

    2015-04-01

    Although a rare natural phenomenon, tsunami type events in the Black Sea had been generated, past studies showing more than twenty events (Altinok Y., 1999). The western Black Sea could mostly be affected by earthquakes generated in Shabla area, the most known event being generated on 31st of March 1901, when an earthquake with Mw = 7.2 triggered tsunami waves up to 5 m height (Papadopoulos et al., 2011). In order to generate a tsunami in the Black Sea area, earthquakes should mainly follow some conditions: a) to have a magnitude Mw > 6.5; b) to have a focal depth h Dip, Rake, Width, Length). A set of 18 different tsunami modeling scenarios have been run, varying the Magnitude (Mw = 7, 7.5 and 8) and the Depth (5 km, 10 km and 30 km). The software used for generating the tsunami modeling scenarios is Tsunami Analysis Tool (TAT), developed by Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. After analyzing and comparing the generated tsunami modeling scenarios, minimum values of magnitude for tsunami waves generation were evaluated for the Shabla seismic source. For some of the scenarios no tsunami waves were generated. The worst case scenario is for a depth of 5 km, a magnitude Mw = 8, the tsunami waves heights reaching 0.8 m in Kranevo (Bulgaria). The maximum wave heights and some of the affected locations for this scenario show that at Costinesti, Mangalia, Techirghiol cities the waves will reach 0.6 m height and respectively 0.5 m at Constanta city. According to these scenarios, the tsunami generated waves can vary as follows: increasing the depth from 5 to 10 and 30 km will lead to lower heights or no waves generation. Also a magnitude increase from 7 to 7.5 and then to 8 will lead to maximum waves generation.

  4. Scenarios of economic development in Romania - medium to long-term forecasting models

    OpenAIRE

    Albu, Lucian-Liviu; Roudoi, Andrei

    2003-01-01

    In order to obtain plausible scenarios of economic development in Romania up to the 2015 horizon, we used a mix of forecasting models, from ones classified as “medium-term” to those covering longer forecasting periods. Based on the analysis of the economic transition period we mainly used three models: a) A sustainability function model (public debt and fiscal deficits); b) A simple econometric model, based on a production function, in which FDI and exports are introduced as inputs in additio...

  5. Development of groundwater pesticide exposure modeling scenarios for vulnerable spring and winter wheat-growing areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Lauren; Winchell, Michael; Peranginangin, Natalia; Grant, Shanique

    2017-11-01

    Wheat crops and the major wheat-growing regions of the United States are not included in the 6 crop- and region-specific scenarios developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for exposure modeling with the Pesticide Root Zone Model conceptualized for groundwater (PRZM-GW). The present work augments the current scenarios by defining appropriately vulnerable PRZM-GW scenarios for high-producing spring and winter wheat-growing regions that are appropriate for use in refined pesticide exposure assessments. Initial screening-level modeling was conducted for all wheat areas across the conterminous United States as defined by multiple years of the Cropland Data Layer land-use data set. Soil, weather, groundwater temperature, evaporation depth, and crop growth and management practices were characterized for each wheat area from publicly and nationally available data sets and converted to input parameters for PRZM. Approximately 150 000 unique combinations of weather, soil, and input parameters were simulated with PRZM for an herbicide applied for postemergence weed control in wheat. The resulting postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in a theoretical shallow aquifer were ranked to identify states with the largest regions of relatively vulnerable wheat areas. For these states, input parameters resulting in near 90th percentile postbreakthrough average concentrations corresponding to significant wheat areas with shallow depth to groundwater formed the basis for 4 new spring wheat scenarios and 4 new winter wheat scenarios to be used in PRZM-GW simulations. Spring wheat scenarios were identified in North Dakota, Montana, Washington, and Texas. Winter wheat scenarios were identified in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Colorado. Compared to the USEPA's original 6 scenarios, postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in the new scenarios were lower than all but Florida Potato and Georgia Coastal Peanuts of the original scenarios and better

  6. From Modelling to Execution of Enterprise Integration Scenarios: The GENIUS Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibler, Thorsten; Leymann, Frank

    One of the predominant problems IT companies are facing today is Enterprise Application Integration (EAI). Most of the infrastructures built to tackle integration issues are proprietary because no standards exist for how to model, develop, and actually execute integration scenarios. EAI patterns gain importance for non-technical business users to ease and harmonize the development of EAI scenarios. These patterns describe recurring EAI challenges and propose possible solutions in an abstract way. Therefore, one can use those patterns to describe enterprise architectures in a technology neutral manner. However, patterns are documentation only used by developers and systems architects to decide how to implement an integration scenario manually. Thus, patterns are not theoretical thought to stand for artefacts that will immediately be executed. This paper presents a tool supporting a method how EAI patterns can be used to generate executable artefacts for various target platforms automatically using a model-driven development approach, hence turning patterns into something executable. Therefore, we introduce a continuous tool chain beginning at the design phase and ending in executing an integration solution in a completely automatically manner. For evaluation purposes we introduce a scenario demonstrating how the tool is utilized for modelling and actually executing an integration scenario.

  7. Impact modelling of water resources development and climate scenarios on Zambezi River discharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harald Kling

    2014-07-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Comparisons between historical and future scenarios show that the biggest changes have already occurred. Construction of Kariba and CahoraBassa dams in the mid 1900s altered the seasonality and flow duration curves. Future irrigation development will cause decreases of a similar magnitude to those caused by current reservoir evaporation losses. The discharge is highly sensitive to small precipitation changes and the two climate models used give different signs for future precipitation change, suggestive of large uncertainty. The river basin model and database are available as anopen-online Decision Support System to facilitate impact assessments of additional climate or development scenarios.

  8. pHMM-tree: phylogeny of profile hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Luyang; Zhang, Han; Huo, Xueting; Yang, Yasong; Li, Xueqiong; Yin, Yanbin

    2017-04-01

    Protein families are often represented by profile hidden Markov models (pHMMs). Homology between two distant protein families can be determined by comparing the pHMMs. Here we explored the idea of building a phylogeny of protein families using the distance matrix of their pHMMs. We developed a new software and web server (pHMM-tree) to allow four major types of inputs: (i) multiple pHMM files, (ii) multiple aligned protein sequence files, (iii) mixture of pHMM and aligned sequence files and (iv) unaligned protein sequences in a single file. The output will be a pHMM phylogeny of different protein families delineating their relationships. We have applied pHMM-tree to build phylogenies for CAZyme (carbohydrate active enzyme) classes and Pfam clans, which attested its usefulness in the phylogenetic representation of the evolutionary relationship among distant protein families. This software is implemented in C/C ++ and is available at http://cys.bios.niu.edu/pHMM-Tree/source/. zhanghan@nankai.edu.cn or yyin@niu.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  9. A Cayley Tree Immune Network Model with Antibody Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Anderson, R W; Perelson, A S; Anderson, Russell W.; Neumann, Avidan U.; Perelson, Alan S.

    1993-01-01

    Abstract: A Cayley tree model of idiotypic networks that includes both B cell and antibody dynamics is formulated and analyzed. As in models with B cells only, localized states exist in the network with limited numbers of activated clones surrounded by virgin or near-virgin clones. The existence and stability of these localized network states are explored as a function of model parameters. As in previous models that have included antibody, the stability of immune and tolerant localized states are shown to depend on the ratio of antibody to B cell lifetimes as well as the rate of antibody complex removal. As model parameters are varied, localized steady-states can break down via two routes: dynamically, into chaotic attractors, or structurally into percolation attractors. For a given set of parameters, percolation and chaotic attractors can coexist with localized attractors, and thus there do not exist clear cut boundaries in parameter space that separate regions of localized attractors from regions of percola...

  10. A deterministic model for the growth of non-conducting electrical tree structures

    CERN Document Server

    Dodd, S J

    2003-01-01

    Electrical treeing is of interest to the electrical generation, transmission and distribution industries as it is one of the causes of insulation failure in electrical machines, switchgear and transformer bushings. In this paper a deterministic electrical tree growth model is described. The model is based on electrostatics and local electron avalanches to model partial discharge activity within the growing tree structure. Damage to the resin surrounding the tree structure is dependent on the local electrostatic energy dissipation by partial discharges within the tree structure and weighted by the magnitudes of the local electric fields in the resin surrounding the tree structure. The model is successful in simulating the formation of branched structures without the need of a random variable, a requirement of previous stochastic models. Instability in the spatial development of partial discharges within the tree structure takes the role of the stochastic element as used in previous models to produce branched t...

  11. Driving-forces model on individual behavior in scenarios considering moving threat agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuying; Zhuang, Jun; Shen, Shifei; Wang, Jia

    2017-09-01

    The individual behavior model is a contributory factor to improve the accuracy of agent-based simulation in different scenarios. However, few studies have considered moving threat agents, which often occur in terrorist attacks caused by attackers with close-range weapons (e.g., sword, stick). At the same time, many existing behavior models lack validation from cases or experiments. This paper builds a new individual behavior model based on seven behavioral hypotheses. The driving-forces model is an extension of the classical social force model considering scenarios including moving threat agents. An experiment was conducted to validate the key components of the model. Then the model is compared with an advanced Elliptical Specification II social force model, by calculating the fitting errors between the simulated and experimental trajectories, and being applied to simulate a specific circumstance. Our results show that the driving-forces model reduced the fitting error by an average of 33.9% and the standard deviation by an average of 44.5%, which indicates the accuracy and stability of the model in the studied situation. The new driving-forces model could be used to simulate individual behavior when analyzing the risk of specific scenarios using agent-based simulation methods, such as risk analysis of close-range terrorist attacks in public places.

  12. The centricity of presence in scenario-based high fidelity human patient simulation: a model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunnington, Renee M

    2015-01-01

    Enhancing immersive presence has been shown to have influence on learning outcomes in virtual types of simulation. Scenario-based human patient simulation, a mixed reality form, may pose unique challenges for inducing the centricity of presence among participants in simulation. A model for enhancing the centricity of presence in scenario-based human patient simulation is presented here. The model represents a theoretical linkage among the interaction of pedagogical, individual, and group factors that influence the centricity of presence among participants in simulation. Presence may have an important influence on the learning experiences and learning outcomes in scenario-based high fidelity human patient simulation. This report is a follow-up to an article published in 2014 by the author where connections were made to the theoretical basis of presence as articulated by nurse scholars. © The Author(s) 2014.

  13. Comparison of TS and ANN Models with the Results of Emission Scenarios in Rainfall Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Babaei Hessar

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Precipitation is one of the most important and sensitive parameters of the tropical climate that influence the catchments hydrological regime. The prediction of rainfall is vital for strategic planning and water resources management. Despite its importance, statistical rainfall forecasting, especially for long-term, has been proven to be a great challenge due to the dynamic nature of climate phenomena and random fluctuations involved in the process. Various methods, such as time series and artificial neural network models, have been proposed to predict the level of rainfall. But there is not enough attention to global warming and climate change issues. The main aim of this study is to investigate the conformity of artificial neural network and time series models with climate scenarios. Materials and Methods: For this study, 50 years of daily rainfall data (1961 to 2010 of the synoptic station of Urmia, Tabriz and Khoy was investigated. Data was obtained from Meteorological Organization of Iran. In the present study, the results of two Artificial Neural Network (ANN and Time Seri (TS methods were compared with the result of the Emission Scenarios (A2 & B1. HadCM3 model in LARS-WG software was used to generate rainfall for the next 18 years (2011-2029. The results of models were compared with climate scenarios over the next 18 years in the three synoptic stations located in the basin of the Lake Urmia. At the first stage, the best model of time series method was selected. The precipitation was estimated for the next 18 years using these models. For the same period, precipitation was forecast using artificial neural networks. Finally, the results of two models were compared with data generated under two scenarios (B1 and A2 in LARS-WG. Results and Discussion: Different order of AR, MA and ARMA was examined to select the best model of TS The results show that AR(1 was suitable for Tabriz and Khoy stations .In the Urmia station MA(1 was

  14. SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, B. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Melaina, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Penev, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Daniel, W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This report describes the development and analysis of detailed temporal and spatial scenarios for early market hydrogen fueling infrastructure clustering and fuel cell electric vehicle rollout using the Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization and Analysis (SERA) model. The report provides an overview of the SERA scenario development framework and discusses the approach used to develop the nationwidescenario.

  15. Scenario optimization modeling approach for design and management of biomass-to-biorefinery supply chain system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Bhavna; Ingalls, Ricki G; Jones, Carol L; Huhnke, Raymond L; Khanchi, Amit

    2013-12-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a scenario optimization model to address weather uncertainty in the Biomass Supply Chain (BSC). The modeling objective was to minimize the cost of biomass supply to biorefineries over a one-year planning period using monthly time intervals under different weather scenarios. The model is capable of making strategic, tactical and operational decisions related to BSC system. The performance of the model was demonstrated through a case study developed for Abengoa biorefinery in Kansas. Sensitivity analysis was done to demonstrate the effect of input uncertainty in yield, land rent and storage dry matter loss on the model outputs. The model results show that available harvest work hours influence major cost-related decisions in the BSC. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Self-consistent modeling of CFETR baseline scenarios for steady-state operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jiale; Jian, Xiang; Chan, Vincent S.; Li, Zeyu; Deng, Zhao; Li, Guoqiang; Guo, Wenfeng; Shi, Nan; Chen, Xi; CFETR Physics Team

    2017-07-01

    Integrated modeling for core plasma is performed to increase confidence in the proposed baseline scenario in the 0D analysis for the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR). The steady-state scenarios are obtained through the consistent iterative calculation of equilibrium, transport, auxiliary heating and current drives (H&CD). Three combinations of H&CD schemes (NB + EC, NB + EC + LH, and EC + LH) are used to sustain the scenarios with q min > 2 and fusion power of ˜70-150 MW. The predicted power is within the target range for CFETR Phase I, although the confinement based on physics models is lower than that assumed in 0D analysis. Ideal MHD stability analysis shows that the scenarios are stable against n = 1-10 ideal modes, where n is the toroidal mode number. Optimization of RF current drive for the RF-only scenario is also presented. The simulation workflow for core plasma in this work provides a solid basis for a more extensive research and development effort for the physics design of CFETR.

  17. LAND SUITABILITY SCENARIOS FOR ARID COASTAL PLAINS USING GIS MODELING: SOUTHWESTERN SINAI COASTAL PLAIN, EGYPT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Mohamed Wahid

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Site selection analysis was carried out to find the best suitable lands for development activities in an example of promising coastal plains, southwestern Sinai, Egypt. Two GIS models were developed to represent two scenarios of land use suitability in the study area using GIS Multi Criteria Analysis Modeling. The factors contributed in the analysis are the Topography, Land cover, Existing Land use, Flash flood index, Drainage lines and Water points. The first scenario was to classify the area according to various gradual ranges of suitability. According to this scenario, the area is classified into five classes of suitability. The percentage of suitability values are 51.16, 6.13, 22.32, 18.49 and 1.89% for unsuitable, least suitable, low suitable, suitable and high suitable, respectively. The second scenario is developed for a particular kind of land use planning; tourism and recreation projects. The suitability map of this scenario was classified into five values. Unsuitable areas represent 51.18% of the study area, least suitable 16.67%, low suitable 22.85%, suitable 8.61%, and high suitable 0.68%. The best area for locating development projects is the area surrounding El-Tor City and close to the coast. This area could be an urban extension of El-Tor City with more economical and environmental management.

  18. LAND SUITABILITY SCENARIOS FOR ARID COASTAL PLAINS USING GIS MODELING: SOUTHWESTERN SINAI COASTAL PLAIN, EGYPT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Wahid

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Site selection analysis was carried out to find the best suitable lands for development activities in an example of promising coastal plains, southwestern Sinai, Egypt. Two GIS models were developed to represent two scenarios of land use suitability in the study area using GIS Multi Criteria Analysis Modeling. The factors contributed in the analysis are the Topography, Land cover, Existing Land use, Flash flood index, Drainage lines and Water points. The first scenario was to classify the area according to various gradual ranges of suitability. According to this scenario, the area is classified into five classes of suitability. The percentage of suitability values are 51.16, 6.13, 22.32, 18.49 and 1.89% for unsuitable, least suitable, low suitable, suitable and high suitable, respectively. The second scenario is developed for a particular kind of land use planning; tourism and recreation projects. The suitability map of this scenario was classified into five values. Unsuitable areas represent 51.18% of the study area, least suitable 16.67%, low suitable 22.85%, suitable 8.61%, and high suitable 0.68%. The best area for locating development projects is the area surrounding El-Tor City and close to the coast. This area could be an urban extension of El-Tor City with more economical and environmental management.

  19. A Survey of Game Theoretic Approaches to Modelling Decision-Making in Information Warfare Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Merrick

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Our increasing dependence on information technologies and autonomous systems has escalated international concern for information- and cyber-security in the face of politically, socially and religiously motivated cyber-attacks. Information warfare tactics that interfere with the flow of information can challenge the survival of individuals and groups. It is increasingly important that both humans and machines can make decisions that ensure the trustworthiness of information, communication and autonomous systems. Subsequently, an important research direction is concerned with modelling decision-making processes. One approach to this involves modelling decision-making scenarios as games using game theory. This paper presents a survey of information warfare literature, with the purpose of identifying games that model different types of information warfare operations. Our contribution is a systematic identification and classification of information warfare games, as a basis for modelling decision-making by humans and machines in such scenarios. We also present a taxonomy of games that map to information warfare and cyber crime problems as a precursor to future research on decision-making in such scenarios. We identify and discuss open research questions including the role of behavioural game theory in modelling human decision making and the role of machine decision-making in information warfare scenarios.

  20. Conversation Trees: A Grammar Model for Topic Structure in Forums

    OpenAIRE

    Louis, Annie; Cohen, Shay B.

    2015-01-01

    Online forum discussions proceed differently from face-to-face conversations and any single thread on an online forum contains posts on different subtopics. This work aims to characterize the content of a forum thread as a conversation tree of topics. We present models that jointly per- form two tasks: segment a thread into sub-parts, and assign a topic to each part. Our core idea is a definition of topic structure using probabilistic grammars. By leveraging the flexibility of two grammar for...

  1. A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian Mark Tompkins

    Full Text Available A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001-2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified.

  2. A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

    2015-01-01

    A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

  3. Tree survey and allometric models for tiger bush in northern Senegal and comparison with tree parameters derived from high resolution satellite data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Mads Olander; Goettsche, Frank-M.; Diop, Doudou

    2011-01-01

    radius, and diameter at breast height (DBH), for which allometric models were determined. An object-based classification method was used to determine tree crown cover (TCC) from Quickbird data. The average TCC from the tree survey and the respective TCC from remote sensing were both about 3.0 For areas...... beyond the surveyed areas TCC varied between 3.0% and 4.5 Furthermore, an empirical correction factor for tree clumping was obtained, which considerably improved the estimated number of trees and the estimated average tree crown area and radius. An allometric model linking TCC to tree stem crosssectional...

  4. Assessing models of speciation under different biogeographic scenarios; An empirical study using multi-locus and RNA-seq analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Taylor; Tollis, Marc; Hsieh, PingHsun; Gutenkunst, Ryan N.; Liu, Zhen; Kusumi, Kenro; Culver, Melanie; Murphy, Robert W.

    2016-01-01

    Evolutionary biology often seeks to decipher the drivers of speciation, and much debate persists over the relative importance of isolation and gene flow in the formation of new species. Genetic studies of closely related species can assess if gene flow was present during speciation, because signatures of past introgression often persist in the genome. We test hypotheses on which mechanisms of speciation drove diversity among three distinct lineages of desert tortoise in the genus Gopherus. These lineages offer a powerful system to study speciation, because different biogeographic patterns (physical vs. ecological segregation) are observed at opposing ends of their distributions. We use 82 samples collected from 38 sites, representing the entire species' distribution and generate sequence data for mtDNA and four nuclear loci. A multilocus phylogenetic analysis in *BEAST estimates the species tree. RNA-seq data yield 20,126 synonymous variants from 7665 contigs from two individuals of each of the three lineages. Analyses of these data using the demographic inference package ∂a∂i serve to test the null hypothesis of no gene flow during divergence. The best-fit demographic model for the three taxa is concordant with the *BEAST species tree, and the ∂a∂i analysis does not indicate gene flow among any of the three lineages during their divergence. These analyses suggest that divergence among the lineages occurred in the absence of gene flow and in this scenario the genetic signature of ecological isolation (parapatric model) cannot be differentiated from geographic isolation (allopatric model).

  5. Spatial Dynamic Modelling of Future Scenarios of Land Use Change in Vaud and Valais, Western Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Gago-Silva

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available We use Bayesian methods with a weights of evidence approach to model the probability of land use change over the Western part of Switzerland. This first model is followed by a cellular automata model for spatial allocation of land use classes. Our results extend and enhance current land use scenarios studies by applying Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EG to a study area comprising of the upper Rhone river basin in the Cantons of Vaud and Valais. In order to take into account the topography, we divide the study area into four regions, based on their altitude and administrative region. We show that the different regions are affected in differing ways by the same driving forces. We analyse possible outcomes in land use change in 2050 for three different scenarios: “business as usual”, “liberalisation” and a “lowered agriculture production”. The “business-as-usual” scenario results indicate a decrease in agriculture, mostly in extensive agriculture, with a share in the total area of 12.3% in 2009 decreasing by 3.3% in 2050. Losses expected under a “business-as-usual” scenario in agriculture, are mostly due to the conversion to shrubland and forest. Further losses in extensive agriculture are expected under the “liberalisation” scenario, decreasing by 10.3 % in 2050. Along with a marked increase in the closed and open forest area, increasing from 27.1% in 2009 to 42.3% by 2050. Gains in open land habitat with the increase of the share of extensive agriculture area under the “lowered agricultural production” scenario are expected to increase by 3.2% in 2050, while the share of intensive agriculture area is expected to decrease by 5.6%.

  6. Spatial Simulation Modelling of Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios in Luangprabang Province, Lao PDR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khamma Homsysavath

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking Luangprabang province in Lao Peoples’s Democratic Republic (PDR as an example, we simulated future forest cover changes under the business-as-usual (BAU, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios based on the Markov-cellular automata (MCA model. We computed transition probabilities from satellite-derived forest cover maps (1993 and 2000 using the Markov chains, while the “weights of evidence” technique was used to generate transition potential maps. The initial forest cover map (1993, the transition potential maps and the 1993–2000 transition probabilities were used to calibrate the model. Forest cover simulations were then performed from 1993 to 2007 at an annual time-step. The simulated forest cover map for 2007 was compared to the observed (actual forest cover map for 2007 in order to test the accuracy of the model. Following the successful calibration and validation, future forest cover changes were simulated up to 2014 under different scenarios. The MCA simulations under the BAU and pessimistic scenarios projected that current forest areas would decrease, whereas unstocked forest areas would increase in the future. Conversely, the optimistic scenario projected that current forest areas would increase in the future if strict forestry laws enforcing conservation in protected forest areas are implemented. The three simulation scenarios provide a very good case study for simulating future forest cover changes at the subnational level (Luangprabang province. Thus, the future simulated forest cover changes can possibly be used as a guideline to set reference scenarios as well as undertake REDD/REDD+ preparedness activities within the study area.

  7. Using Scenario Visioning and Participatory System Dynamics Modeling to Investigate the Future: Lessons from Minnesota 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn J. Draeger

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Both scenario visioning and participatory system dynamics modeling emphasize the dynamic and uncontrollable nature of complex socio-ecological systems, and the significance of multiple feedback mechanisms. These two methodologies complement one another, but are rarely used together. We partnered with regional organizations in Minnesota to design a future visioning process that incorporated both scenarios and participatory system dynamics modeling. The three purposes of this exercise were: first, to assist regional leaders in making strategic decisions that would make their communities sustainable; second, to identify research gaps that could impede the ability of regional and state groups to plan for the future; and finally, to introduce more systems thinking into planning and policy-making around environmental issues. We found that scenarios and modeling complemented one another, and that both techniques allowed regional groups to focus on the sustainability of fundamental support systems (energy, food, and water supply. The process introduced some creative tensions between imaginative scenario visioning and quantitative system dynamics modeling, and between creating desired futures (a strong cultural norm and inhabiting the future (a premise of the Minnesota 2050 exercise. We suggest that these tensions can stimulate more agile, strategic thinking about the future.

  8. Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, Michael; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2010-09-27

    Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches determined by the purpose of the exercise and by technical, methodological and epistemological constraints. Our case studies do not suggest Malthusian futures for a projected global population of 9 billion in 2050; but international trade will be a crucial determinant of outcomes; and the concept of sustainability across the dimensions of the food system has been inadequately explored so far. The impact of scenario analysis at a global scale could be strengthened with participatory processes involving key actors at other geographical scales. Food system models are valuable in managing existing knowledge on system behaviour and ensuring the credibility of qualitative stories but they are limited by current datasets for global crop production and trade, land use and hydrology. Climate change is likely to challenge the adaptive capacity of agricultural production and there are important knowledge gaps for modelling research to address.

  9. Ship speed optimization: Concepts, models and combined speed-routing scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to clarify some important issues as regards ship speed optimization at the operational level and develop models that optimize ship speed for a spectrum of routing scenarios in a single ship setting. The paper's main contribution is the incorporation of those fundament...

  10. Virtual testing of driver OOP scenarios: effect of modeling detail on injury response

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosch-Rekveldt, M.G.C.; Hoof, J.F.A.M. van

    2004-01-01

    This study investigates the relevance of certain parameters for virtual testing of the driver's side OOP problem and attempts to answer the following questions: Which level of detail is needed in the airbag models to assess occupants' injury values for OOP scenarios? What is the influence of the

  11. Combining biodiversity modeling with political and economic development scenarios for 25 EU countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verboom, J.; Alkemade, R.; Klijn, J.A.; Metzger, M.J.; Reijnen, R.

    2007-01-01

    In the EURURALIS project, a chain of models was used to predict the changes in sustainable development indicators for European human well-being, ecology and economy issues, for four alternative scenarios of the future socio-economic development. This paper describes the biodiversity analysis of the

  12. Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

    2012-01-01

    the cellular automata model LUCIA. An Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban...

  13. Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer K. Costanza

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

  14. Using ROC curves to compare neural networks and logistic regression for modeling individual noncatastrophic tree mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan L. King

    2003-01-01

    The performance of two classifiers, logistic regression and neural networks, are compared for modeling noncatastrophic individual tree mortality for 21 species of trees in West Virginia. The output of the classifier is usually a continuous number between 0 and 1. A threshold is selected between 0 and 1 and all of the trees below the threshold are classified as...

  15. Truth-telling and Nash equilibria in minimum cost spanning tree models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Tvede, Mich

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we consider the minimum cost spanning tree model. We assume that a central planner aims at implementing a minimum cost spanning tree not knowing the true link costs. The central planner sets up a game where agents announce link costs, a tree is chosen and costs are allocated according...

  16. Compositional generative mapping for tree-structured data--part I: bottom-up probabilistic modeling of trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacciu, Davide; Micheli, Alessio; Sperduti, Alessandro

    2012-12-01

    We introduce a novel compositional (recursive) probabilistic model for trees that defines an approximated bottom-up generative process from the leaves to the root of a tree. The proposed model defines contextual state transitions from the joint configuration of the children to the parent nodes. We argue that the bottom-up context postulates different probabilistic assumptions with respect to a top-down approach, leading to different representational capabilities. We discuss classes of applications that are best suited to a bottom-up approach. In particular, the bottom-up context is shown to better correlate and model the co-occurrence of substructures among the child subtrees of internal nodes. A mixed memory approximation is introduced to factorize the joint children-to-parent state transition matrix as a mixture of pairwise transitions. The proposed approach is the first practical bottom-up generative model for tree-structured data that maintains the same computational class of its top-down counterpart. Comparative experimental analyses exploiting synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed model can deal with deep structures better than a top-down generative model. The model is also shown to better capture structural information from real-world data comprising trees with a large out-degree. The proposed bottom-up model can be used as a fundamental building block for the development of other new powerful models.

  17. Exploring Bioeconomy Growth through the Public Release of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newes, Emily K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Biddy, Mary J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bush, Brian W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Inman, Daniel J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC

    2017-08-02

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is an important tool for exploring vibrant future bioeconomy scenarios that leverage domestic resources. Developed by NREL and BETO, this model of the domestic biofuels supply chain has been used to explore success strategies for BETO's activities towards bioeconomy growth. The BSM offers a robust test bed for detailed exploration of effects of BETO activities within the complex context of resource availability; physical, technological, and economic constraints; behavior; and policy. The public release of the model in 2017 will allow broad engagement with the theme of the conference as model users can analyze bioeconomy growth, domestic biomass resource use, and associated effects. The BSM is a carefully validated, state-of-the-art, dynamic model of the biomass to biofuels supply chain. Using a system dynamics simulation modeling approach, the model tracks long-term deployment of biofuels given technology development and investment, considering land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand, and government policies over time. Sample outputs include biofuels production, feedstock use, capital investment, incentives, and costs of feedstocks and fuels. BSM scenarios reveal technological, economic, and policy challenges, as well as opportunities for dynamic growth of the bioeconomy with strategic public and private investment at key points in the system. The model logic and results have been reviewed extensively, through collaborative analysis, expert reviews and external publications (https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/).

  18. Groundwater Level Prediction using M5 Model Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nalarajan, Nitha Ayinippully; Mohandas, C.

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater is an important resource, readily available and having high economic value and social benefit. Recently, it had been considered a dependable source of uncontaminated water. During the past two decades, increased rate of extraction and other greedy human actions have resulted in the groundwater crisis, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Under prevailing circumstances, the availability of predicted groundwater levels increase the importance of this valuable resource, as an aid in the planning of groundwater resources. For this purpose, data-driven prediction models are widely used in the present day world. M5 model tree (MT) is a popular soft computing method emerging as a promising method for numeric prediction, producing understandable models. The present study discusses the groundwater level predictions using MT employing only the historical groundwater levels from a groundwater monitoring well. The results showed that MT can be successively used for forecasting groundwater levels.

  19. Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Thomas H; Simion, Federico; Tonini, Davide; Møller, Jacob

    2009-11-01

    Global warming factors (kg CO(2)-eq.-tonne(-1) of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper, glass, plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling, incineration or mechanical-biological waste treatment. For average European waste composition most waste management scenarios provided negative global warming factors and hence overall savings in greenhouse gas emissions: Scenarios with landfilling saved 0-400, scenarios with incineration saved 200-700, and scenarios with mechanical-biological treatment saved 200- 750 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(- 1) municipal waste depending on recycling scheme and energy recovery. Key parameters were the amount of paper recycled (it was assumed that wood made excessive by paper recycling substituted for fossil fuel), the crediting of the waste management system for the amount of energy recovered (hard-coal-based energy was substituted), and binding of biogenic carbon in landfills. Most other processes were of less importance. Rational waste management can provide significant savings in society's emission of greenhouse gas depending on waste composition and efficient utilization of the energy recovered.

  20. Modeling the Ecosystem Services Provided by Trees in Urban Ecosystems: Using Biome-BGC to Improve i-Tree Eco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; McGroddy, Megan; Spence, Caitlin; Flake, Leah; Sarfraz, Amna; Nowak, David J.; Milesi, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    As the world becomes increasingly urban, the need to quantify the effect of trees in urban environments on energy usage, air pollution, local climate and nutrient run-off has increased. By identifying, quantifying and valuing the ecological activity that provides services in urban areas, stronger policies and improved quality of life for urban residents can be obtained. Here we focus on two radically different models that can be used to characterize urban forests. The i-Tree Eco model (formerly UFORE model) quantifies ecosystem services (e.g., air pollution removal, carbon storage) and values derived from urban trees based on field measurements of trees and local ancillary data sets. Biome-BGC (Biome BioGeoChemistry) is used to simulate the fluxes and storage of carbon, water, and nitrogen in natural environments. This paper compares i-Tree Eco's methods to those of Biome-BGC, which estimates the fluxes and storage of energy, carbon, water and nitrogen for vegetation and soil components of the ecosystem. We describe the two models and their differences in the way they calculate similar properties, with a focus on carbon and nitrogen. Finally, we discuss the implications of further integration of these two communities for land managers such as those in Maryland.

  1. National level water quality simulation and climate change scenarios in Finland with WSFS-Vemala model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttunen, M.; Huttunen, I.; Seppänen, V.; Vehviläinen, B.

    2012-04-01

    WSFS-Vemala model have been developed for water quality simulation and scenarios for Finland. The model consists of sub-models for hydrological cycle, nutrient leaching and transport in rivers and lakes. Simulation of total phosphorus, total nitrogen, suspended solids and total organic carbon is included. Hydrological simulation is based on WSFS system, which simulates the hydrological cycle by one day time step using standard meteorological data. The system covers the whole land area of Finland, including cross-border watersheds, total of 390 000 km2. The meteorological inputs of the model are daily precipitation and temperature and the simulated components are snow accumulation and melt, soil moisture, evaporation, ground water, runoff and discharges and water levels of rivers and lakes. The remote sensing data used in the model includes satellite data of snow coverage and snow water equivalent and precipitation from weather radars. In the hydrological simulation Finland is divided into 6200 50-100 km2 sub-basin. All lakes larger than one hectar are simulated, which is about 58 000 lakes. The large number of lakes is characteristics for Finland and especially for water quality simulation the lake processes are important and therefore all lakes are included. Since agriculture is the main source of nutrient loading, fields are described in detail. Slope profile, crop and soil type data for each 1 100 000 fields in Finland are described, which covers 2 450 000 hectares of fields. For phosphorus leaching and erosion simulation the field level Icecream model is applied. In the Icecream model farming practicies, fertilization, crop growth, phosphorus cycle in the soil and finally leaching and erosion are simulated on daily timestep. For nitrogen simulation in fields a similar process based model is applied on sub-basin level and field scale nitrogen simulation with Icecream model is under development. Point loads, atmospheric deposition and load from settlements are

  2. Spatially-explicit models of global tree density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Henry B.; Bettigole, Charlie; Maynard, Daniel S.; Covey, Kristofer R.; Smith, Jeffrey R.; Crowther, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Remote sensing and geographic analysis of woody vegetation provide means of evaluating the distribution of natural resources, patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem structure, and socio-economic drivers of resource utilization. While these methods bring geographic datasets with global coverage into our day-to-day analytic spheres, many of the studies that rely on these strategies do not capitalize on the extensive collection of existing field data. We present the methods and maps associated with the first spatially-explicit models of global tree density, which relied on over 420,000 forest inventory field plots from around the world. This research is the result of a collaborative effort engaging over 20 scientists and institutions, and capitalizes on an array of analytical strategies. Our spatial data products offer precise estimates of the number of trees at global and biome scales, but should not be used for local-level estimation. At larger scales, these datasets can contribute valuable insight into resource management, ecological modelling efforts, and the quantification of ecosystem services. PMID:27529613

  3. Macroscopic Models of Clique Tree Growth for Bayesian Networks

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In clique tree clustering, inference consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network. In this paper, we develop an analytical approach to...

  4. CoFoLaMo: Comparing forest landscape model simulations under different climate, interaction- and land use scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lischke, Heike; Speich, Matthias; Schmatz, Dirk; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Mairota, Paola; Leronni, Vincenzo; Schuler, Laura; Bugmann, Harald; Bruna, Josef; Thom, Dominik; Seidl, Rupert; Reineking, Björn

    2016-04-01

    Forests play an important role in the global climate system, and are themselves strongly affected by the changing climate. Forest dynamics do not only act at the stand scale, but are also influenced by larger scale drivers, such as landscape management, and by spatial interactions, such as fire spread or seed dispersal. Forest landscape models run on areas larger than a stand and interact spatially and thus are capable of taking into account these effects. We present the setup of the forest landscape model intercomparison CoFoLaMo (which is based on the setup of the ISI-MIP forest stand model comparison), where we examine several forest landscape models- LandClim, ForHyCS, TreeMig, LANDIS II and iLand - in terms of their usefulness for different kinds of applications. We compare the models with respect to their general approach, scales, resolution, and data requirements, processes, interactions, drivers, disturbances, outputs, and uncertainties. We run simulations in different test regions across temperate Europe, e.g., in the northern(Davos)and southern Alps (Valle d'Aosta), the Bavarian Forest and southern Italy (Puglia). Climate drivers (mostly daily T and P) are downscaled to 100 m resolution in the respective regions. For spinup and model testing we use past observed climate, extrapolated back to 1600 AD, for future simulations a set of different RCPs of different model chains from the ISI-MIP community. For model testing we use appropriate spatial forest data available for each region, ranging from NFI data, terrestrial vegetation type maps, or remote sensing derived forest types and high resolution canopy height. To address the landscape aspect of the models, we compare them in different scenarios of spatially interacting disturbances, spatial interactions by seed dispersal and land use.

  5. Integrated Modeling and Participatory Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation: the Maui Groundwater Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.; Brewington, L.

    2014-12-01

    For the last century, the island of Maui, Hawaii, has been the center of environmental, agricultural, and legal conflict with respect to surface and groundwater allocation. Planning for adequate future freshwater resources requires flexible and adaptive policies that emphasize partnerships and knowledge transfer between scientists and non-scientists. In 2012 the Hawai'i state legislature passed the Climate Change Adaptation Priority Guidelines (Act 286) law requiring county and state policy makers to include island-wide climate change scenarios in their planning processes. This research details the ongoing work by researchers in the NOAA funded Pacific RISA to support the development of Hawaii's first island-wide water use plan under the new climate adaptation directive. This integrated project combines several models with participatory future scenario planning. The dynamically downscaled triply nested Hawaii Regional Climate Model (HRCM) was modified from the WRF community model and calibrated to simulate the many microclimates on the Hawaiian archipelago. For the island of Maui, the HRCM was validated using 20 years of hindcast data, and daily projections were created at a 1 km scale to capture the steep topography and diverse rainfall regimes. Downscaled climate data are input into a USGS hydrological model to quantify groundwater recharge. This model was previously used for groundwater management, and is being expanded utilizing future climate projections, current land use maps and future scenario maps informed by stakeholder input. Participatory scenario planning began in 2012 to bring together a diverse group of over 50 decision-makers in government, conservation, and agriculture to 1) determine the type of information they would find helpful in planning for climate change, and 2) develop a set of scenarios that represent alternative climate/management futures. This is an iterative process, resulting in flexible and transparent narratives at multiple scales

  6. The Use of Function/Means Trees for Modelling Technical, Semantic and Business Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robotham, Antony John

    2000-01-01

    of the vehicle is required. Life cycle modelling provides an effective means for determining all the required purpose functions and is considered a more effective method than the function/means tree for this task when the structure and mode of operation of the vehicle is well defined and understood.......This paper considers the feasibility of using the function/means tree to create a single tree for a complete motor vehicle. It is argued that function/means trees can be used for modelling technical and semantic functions, but it is an inappropriate method for business functions when one tree...

  7. A passive cold storage device economic model to evaluate selected immunization location scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, Bryan A; Nourollahi, Sevnaz; Chen, Sheng-I; Brown, Shawn T; Claypool, Erin G; Connor, Diana L; Schmitz, Michelle M; Rajgopal, Jayant; Wateska, Angela R; Lee, Bruce Y

    2013-10-25

    The challenge of keeping vaccines cold at health posts given the unreliability of power sources in many low- and middle-income countries and the expense and maintenance requirements of solar refrigerators has motivated the development of passive cold storage devices (PCDs), containers that keep vaccines cold without using an active energy source. With different PCDs under development, manufacturers, policymakers and funders need guidance on how varying different PCD characteristics may affect the devices' cost and utility. We developed an economic spreadsheet model representing the lowest two levels of a typical Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) vaccine supply chain: a district store, the immunization locations that the district store serves, and the transport vehicles that operate between the district store and the immunization locations. The model compares the use of three vaccine storage device options [(1) portable PCDs, (2) stationary PCDs, or (3) solar refrigerators] and allows the user to vary different device (e.g., size and cost) and scenario characteristics (e.g., catchment area population size and vaccine schedule). For a sample set of select scenarios and equipment specification, we found the portable PCD to generally be better suited to populations of 5,000 or less. The stationary PCD replenished once per month can be a robust design especially with a 35L capacity and a cost of $2,500 or less. The solar device was generally a reasonable alternative for most of the scenarios explored if the cost was $2,100 or less (including installation). No one device type dominated over all explored circumstances. Therefore, the best device may vary from country-to-country and location-to-location within a country. This study introduces a quantitative model to help guide PCD development. Although our selected set of explored scenarios and device designs was not exhaustive, future explorations can further alter model input values to represent additional scenarios

  8. Baryon isocurvature scenario in inflationary cosmology - A particle physics model and its astrophysical implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoyama, Jun'ichi; Suto, Yasushi

    1991-01-01

    A phenomenological model to produce isocurvature baryon-number fluctuations is proposed in the framework of inflationary cosmology. The resulting spectrum of density fluctuation is very different from the conventional Harrison-Zel'dovich shape. The model, with the parameters satisfying several requirements from particle physics and cosmology, provides an appropriate initial condition for the minimal baryon isocurvature scenario of galaxy formation discussed by Peebles.

  9. THM modelling of buffer, backfill and other system components. Critical processes and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aakesson, Mattias; Kristensson, Ola; Boergesson, Lennart; Dueck, Ann (Clay Technology AB, Lund (Sweden)); Hernelind, Jan (5T-Engineering AB, Vaesteraas (Sweden))

    2010-03-15

    A number of critical thermo-hydro-mechanical processes and scenarios for the buffer, tunnel backfill and other filling components in the repository have been identified. These processes and scenarios representing different aspects of the repository evolution have been pinpointed and modelled. In total, 22 cases have been modelled. Most cases have been analysed with finite element (FE) calculations, using primarily the two codes Abaqus and Code-Bright. For some cases analytical methods have been used either to supplement the FE calculations or due to that the scenario has a character that makes it unsuitable or very difficult to use the FE method. Material models and element models and choice of parameters as well as presumptions have been stated for all modelling cases. In addition, the results have been analysed and conclusions drawn for each case. The uncertainties have also been analysed. Besides the information given for all cases studied, the codes and material models have been described in a separate so called data report

  10. Modeling effects of overstory density and competing vegetation on tree height growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christian Salas; Albert R. Stage; Andrew P. Robinson

    2007-01-01

    We developed and evaluated an individual-tree height growth model for Douglas-fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco] in the Inland Northwest United States. The model predicts growth for all tree sizes continuously, rather than requiring a transition between independent models for juvenile and mature growth phases. The model predicts the effects...

  11. Land Use Scenarios for Greater Copenhagen: Modelling the Impact of the Fingerplan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2012-01-01

    Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban...... region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change in the metropolitan area of Copenhagen, Denmark, and the impact of the current regional planning...... framework, the “Fingerplan 2007”. We test three policy scenarios and analyse different effects on urban growth by using the Metronamica model from the Dutch-based Research Institute for Knowledge Systems (RIKS). We analyse the possibilities to elaborate a practical and useful outcome within a relatively...

  12. Drivers of soil and tree carbon dynamics in urban residential lawns: a modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trammell, T L E; Pouyat, R V; Carreiro, M M; Yesilonis, I

    2017-04-01

    Soils constitute the largest sink of terrestrial carbon (C), and urban soils have the potential to provide significant soil C storage. Soils in urbanized landscapes experience a multitude of human alterations, such as compaction and management subsidies, that impact soil C dynamics. While field studies may provide data on urban soil C storage, modeling soil C dynamics under various human impact scenarios will provide a basis for identifying drivers of urban soil C dynamics and for predicting the potential for these highly altered soils to store C over time intervals not typically amenable to empirical validation. The goal of this study was to model soil C dynamics in residential lawns using CENTURY, a dynamic mechanistic model, to determine whether drivers of soil C dynamics in natural systems (e.g., soil texture) were equally useful for estimating soil C content of highly modified soils in urban residential areas. Without incorporating human impacts, we found no relationship between initial CENTURY model simulations and observed soil C (P > 0.05). Factors that best explained soil C accumulation for the observed soil C (bulk density, r 2  = 0.30; home age, r 2  = 0.37; P soil and tree C. We found that incorporating these factors did improve CENTURY's ability to model soil and tree C (P soil C dynamics, at least within a 100-yr time frame. Thus, enhancing our ability to provide recommendations for management and development practices that result in increasing urban soil C storage. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  13. Forest vegetation in western Romania in relation to climate variables: Does community composition reflect modelled tree species distribution?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Heinrichs

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available European beech (Fagus sylvatica L. is the prevailing tree species of mesic forests in Central Europe. Increasing summer temperatures and decreasing precipitation, as climate change scenarios predict, may, however, negatively influence beech growth and induce a shift to more thermophilous forest communities. Temperatures as expected in the future for western Central Europe are currently found in parts of western Romania. In light of this climate analogy we investigated forest vegetation as an indicator for future vegetation changes in five regions of western Romania representing a climatic gradient. We related species composition to climate variables and examined if tree and understorey species composition respond similarly to the climatic gradient. We further analysed if tree species occurrences correspond with their modelled distance to the rear niche edge. We found evidence for climatic effects on vegetation composition among regions as well as within deciduous and pine forests, respectively. This underlines that vegetation composition is a useful indicator for environmental change. Tree and understorey species compositions were closely linked showing that community-based characterization of forest stands can provide additional information on tree species suitability along environmental gradients. Both, vegetation composition and a climatic marginality index demonstrate the rear niche edge occurrence of beech in the studied sites of Romania and can predict the site suitability for different tree species. While vegetation surveys indicate Quercus petraea to be associated to moderately mesic forests, the marginality index suggested an inner niche position of sessile oak along the climatic gradient. Phytosociological relevés that differentiate between subspecies (or microspecies of sessile oak with differing habitat requirements should be considered to complement national forest inventories and species distribution maps when modelling rear

  14. Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Rosenberg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and

  15. Tree Branching: Leonardo da Vinci's Rule versus Biomechanical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minamino, Ryoko; Tateno, Masaki

    2014-01-01

    This study examined Leonardo da Vinci's rule (i.e., the sum of the cross-sectional area of all tree branches above a branching point at any height is equal to the cross-sectional area of the trunk or the branch immediately below the branching point) using simulations based on two biomechanical models: the uniform stress and elastic similarity models. Model calculations of the daughter/mother ratio (i.e., the ratio of the total cross-sectional area of the daughter branches to the cross-sectional area of the mother branch at the branching point) showed that both biomechanical models agreed with da Vinci's rule when the branching angles of daughter branches and the weights of lateral daughter branches were small; however, the models deviated from da Vinci's rule as the weights and/or the branching angles of lateral daughter branches increased. The calculated values of the two models were largely similar but differed in some ways. Field measurements of Fagus crenata and Abies homolepis also fit this trend, wherein models deviated from da Vinci's rule with increasing relative weights of lateral daughter branches. However, this deviation was small for a branching pattern in nature, where empirical measurements were taken under realistic measurement conditions; thus, da Vinci's rule did not critically contradict the biomechanical models in the case of real branching patterns, though the model calculations described the contradiction between da Vinci's rule and the biomechanical models. The field data for Fagus crenata fit the uniform stress model best, indicating that stress uniformity is the key constraint of branch morphology in Fagus crenata rather than elastic similarity or da Vinci's rule. On the other hand, mechanical constraints are not necessarily significant in the morphology of Abies homolepis branches, depending on the number of daughter branches. Rather, these branches were often in agreement with da Vinci's rule. PMID:24714065

  16. Data to support "Boosted Regression Tree Models to Explain Watershed Nutrient Concentrations & Biological Condition"

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Spreadsheets are included here to support the manuscript "Boosted Regression Tree Models to Explain Watershed Nutrient Concentrations and Biological Condition". This...

  17. Experimental and Modeling Studies of Crush, Puncture, and Perforation Scenarios in the Steven Impact Test

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vandersall, K S; Chidester, S K; Forbes, J W; Garcia, F; Greenwood, D W; Switzer, L L; Tarver, C M

    2002-06-28

    The Steven test and associated modeling has greatly increased the fundamental knowledge of practical predictions of impact safety hazards for confined and unconfined explosive charges. Building on a database of initial work, experimental and modeling studies of crush, puncture, and perforation scenarios were investigated using the Steven impact test. The descriptions of crush, puncture, and perforation arose from safety scenarios represented by projectile designs that ''crush'' the energetic material or either ''puncture'' with a pinpoint nose or ''perforate'' the front cover with a transportation hook. As desired, these scenarios offer different aspects of the known mechanisms that control ignition: friction, shear and strain. Studies of aged and previously damaged HMX-based high explosives included the use of embedded carbon foil and carbon resistor gauges, high-speed cameras, and blast wave gauges to determine the pressure histories, time required for an explosive reaction, and the relative violence of those reactions, respectively. Various ignition processes were modeled as the initial reaction rate expression in the Ignition and Growth reaction rate equations. Good agreement with measured threshold velocities, pressure histories, and times to reaction was calculated for LX-04 impacted by several projectile geometries using a compression dependent ignition term and an elastic-plastic model with a reasonable yield strength for impact strain rates.

  18. Modelling the potential distribution of Bemisia tabaci in Europe in light of the climate change scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilioli, Gianni; Pasquali, Sara; Parisi, Simone; Winter, Stephan

    2014-10-01

    Bemisia tabaci is a serious pest of agricultural and horticultural crops in greenhouses and fields around the world. This paper deals with the distribution of the pest under field conditions. In Europe, the insect is currently found in coastal regions of Mediterranean countries where it is subject to quarantine regulations. To assess the risk presented by B. tabaci to Europe, the area of potential establishment of this insect, in light of the climate change scenario, was assessed by a temperature-dependent physiologically based demographic model (PBDM). The simulated potential distribution under current climate conditions has been successfully validated with the available field records of B. tabaci in Europe. Considering climate change scenarios of +1 and +2 °C, range expansion by B. tabaci is predicted, particularly in Spain, France, Italy, Greece and along the Adriatic coast of the Balkans. Nonetheless, even under the scenario of +2 °C, northern European countries are not likely to be at risk of B. tabaci establishment because of climatic limitations. Model validation with field observations and evaluation of uncertainties associated with model parameter variability support the reliability of model results. The PBDM developed here can be applied to other organisms and offers significant advantages for assessing the potential distribution of invasive species. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

  19. Emissions of indoor air pollutants from six user scenarios in a model room

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höllbacher, Eva; Ters, Thomas; Rieder-Gradinger, Cornelia; Srebotnik, Ewald

    2017-02-01

    In this study six common user scenarios putatively influencing indoor air quality were performed in a model room constructed according to the specifications of the European Reference Room given in the new horizontal prestandard prEN 16516 to gain further information about the influence of user activities on indoor air quality. These scenarios included the use of cleaning agent, an electric air freshener, an ethanol fireplace and cosmetics as well as cigarette smoking and peeling of oranges. Four common indoor air pollutants were monitored: volatile organic compounds (VOC), particulate matter (PM), carbonyl compounds and CO2. The development of all pollutants was determined during and after the test performance. For each measured pollutant, well-defined maximum values could be assigned to one or more of the individual user scenarios. The highest VOC concentration was measured during orange-peeling reaching a maximum value of 3547 μg m-3. Carbonyl compounds and PM were strongly elevated while cigarette smoking. Here, a maximum formaldehyde concentration of 76 μg m-3 and PM concentration of 378 μg m-3 were measured. CO2 was only slightly affected by most of the tests except the use of the ethanol fireplace where a maximum concentration of 1612 ppm was reached. Generally, the user scenarios resulted in a distinct increase of several indoor pollutants that usually decreased rapidly after the removal of the source.

  20. Effects of uncertainty in model predictions of individual tree volume on large area volume estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronald E. McRoberts; James A. Westfall

    2014-01-01

    Forest inventory estimates of tree volume for large areas are typically calculated by adding model predictions of volumes for individual trees. However, the uncertainty in the model predictions is generally ignored with the result that the precision of the large area volume estimates is overestimated. The primary study objective was to estimate the effects of model...

  1. Physical models within the framework of the Randall-Sundrum scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Kisselev, A.V.

    2014-01-01

    The Randall-Sundrum scenario with non-factorizable geometry and fifth dimension y being an orbifold, is studied. It has two branes located at fixed points of the orbifold. The four-dimensional metric is multiplied by a warp factor exp[sigma(y)]. Recently, a new general expression for sigma(y) was derived which has the orbifold symmetry y -> - y and reproduces jumps of its derivative on both branes. It has an explicit symmetry with respect to the branes. The function sigma(y) is determined by the Einstein-Hilbert's equations up to a constant C. In the present paper we demonstrate that different values of C result in quite different physical schemes. Three schemes are considered, among which are: (i) the RS1 model; (ii) the RSSC model with a small curvature of the five-dimensional space-time; (iii) the ``symmetric'' scheme with C=0. The latter scenario is studied in detail.

  2. USAHA PENINGKATAN PRODUKTIVITAS DENGAN PRODUCTIVITY EVALUATION TREE (PET MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muchlison Anis

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Usaha peningkatan produktivitas merupakan suatu langkah menuju perbaikan perusahaan dimasa yang akan datang. Model perencanaan produktivitas Productivity Evaluation Tree (PET memberikan kemudahan bagi perusahaan dalam mengembangkan dan menilai seluruh alternatif yang mungkin dilakukan dalam menetapkan target peningkatan produktivitas dan usaha peningkatan produktivitas. Dalam penelitian ini alternatif perencanaan ada tiga. Pertama, meningkatkan standart penggunaan bahan baku dari 20% menjadi 30%. Kedua, pengeluaran bahan baku diusulkan sama dengan bulan lalu dengan menerapkan peningkatan standart penggunaan bahan baku sama seperti dengan alternatif pertama, Ketiga, menstimulasi alternatif 2 dengan melakukan manajemen motivasi terhadap tenaga kerja. Dari hasil evaluasi pohon produktivitas maka dapat diketahui estimasi peningkatan produktivitas yang tertinggi adalah alternatif ke tiga dengan perubahan tingkat produktivitas sebesar 0,39.

  3. Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schreiner, GO

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available threshold of the Central Karoo. Keywords: Shale gas, hydraulic fracturing, scientific assessment, scenarios, risk, landscape modelling, avoidance, thresholds 1 INTRODUCTION Experience from around the world with shale gas exploration... and production (collectively termed ‘development’) has revealed some potential negative impacts. For instance, there is evidence of the presence of gas in surface aquifers from deep sources following hydraulic fracturing [1], and methane leakage during...

  4. Using Scenario-based Business Modelling to Explore the 5G Telecommunication Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moqaddamerad, Sara; Ahokangas, Petri; Matinmikko, Marja

    2017-01-01

    Innovative technologies often alter established value chains and make traditional strategic planning methods inadequate. In this paper, we present the use of scenario-based business modelling to explore the market for the fifth generation mobile communication networks (5G). We discuss four...... to integrate multi-dimensional change, from technology, regulation, value-chain dynamics, and value proposition evolution. We further conclude that the approach is particularly valuable in environments that are characterized by a high level of uncertainty and complexity....

  5. Peri-urban futures: Scenarios and models for land use change in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Provides insight + surprising solutions for the dramatic field of peri-urbanisation in Europe Introduces innovative tools for planners, scientists and lay-persons allowing to analyze the impact of peri-urbanisation onto sustainable development Has unique maps showing EU-periurbanisation effects o...... by linking quantitative scenario modeling and sustainability impact analysis with qualitative and in-depth analysis of regional strategies, as well as including a study at European level with case study work also involving a Chinese case study....

  6. Effects of sample survey design on the accuracy of classification tree models in species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas C. Edwards; D. Richard Cutler; Niklaus E. Zimmermann; Linda Geiser; Gretchen G. Moisen

    2006-01-01

    We evaluated the effects of probabilistic (hereafter DESIGN) and non-probabilistic (PURPOSIVE) sample surveys on resultant classification tree models for predicting the presence of four lichen species in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models derived from both survey forms were assessed using an independent data set (EVALUATION). Measures of accuracy as gauged by...

  7. Modeling the Projected Changes of River Flow in Central Vietnam under Different Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuan B. Le

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC indicate that Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The variability of climate in this region, characterized by large fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, has caused significant changes in surface water resources. This study aims to project the impact of climate change on the seasonal availability of surface water of the Huong River in Central Vietnam in the twenty-first century through hydrologic simulations driven by climate model projections. To calibrate and validate the hydrologic model, the model was forced by the rain gage-based gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE V1003R1 Monsoon Asia precipitation data along with observed temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data from local weather stations. The simulated discharge was compared to observations for the period from 1951 until present. Three Global Climate Models (GCMs ECHAM5-OM, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 integrated into Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG stochastic weather generator were run for three IPCC–Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 to simulate future climate conditions. The hydrologic model simulated the Huong River discharge for each IPCC-SRES scenario. Simulation results under the three GCMs generally indicate an increase in summer and fall river discharge during the twenty-first century in A2 and B1 scenarios. For A1B scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 models project a decrease in river discharge from present to the 2051–2080 period and then increase until the 2071–2100 period while ECHAM5-OM model produces opposite projection that discharge will increase until the 2051–2080 period and then decrease for the rest of the century. Water management

  8. Evaluation of soil contamination risk under climate change scenarios using Pantanal model in a Mediterranean area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotb Abd-Elmabod, Sameh; Anaya-Romero, María; Jordán, Antonio; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; de la Rosa, Diego

    2013-04-01

    In this research, contamination vulnerability of Mediterranean soils was evaluated, using Andalusia (southern Spain; 87,600 km2) as a pilot area. The following components of the agro-ecological decision support system MicroLEIS DSS have been used: 1) SDBm, soil profile database, 2) CDBm, agroclimate database 3) MDBm, database of agricultural management, and 4) Pantanal model, specific assessment model for the vulnerability of soil contamination focus on nitrogen, phosphorous, heavy metals and pesticides. After the application of the model, results may be grouped into five vulnerability classes: V1-none, V2-low, V3-moderate, V4-high and V5-extreme for each specific contaminant. Physical and chemical data, and morphological description of 62 selected soil profiles from the study area were used in this study. Soil profiles were classified at sub-group level of USDA Soil Taxonomy, resulting in 37 units included in orders Inceptisols (26,9%), Entisols (21.2%), Alfisols (19.8%), Vertisols (17.9%), Mollisols (7.2%), Ultisols (4.3%) and Aridisols (2.8%). The CDBm database contains monthly average values of climate variables: mean temperature, maximum and minimum monthly rainfall, number of days of rain and humidity, collected during a consecutive period of 30 years that represent current climate scenario, and future climate scenarios (2040, 2070 and 2100). These scenarios have been calculated using climate change variation values from the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET, 2011). The MDBm contains information about agricultural use and management of wheat crop. The Pantanal expert model was applied to each soil-unit. Results showed that 9.0%, 11.6%, 29.5% and 50.8% of the total studied area was classified as V1, V2, V3, and V4, respectively, for pesticide contamination under the current climatic scenario. Under the future climate change scenario, 7.7%, 10.0%, 17.7% and 64.6% of the total studied area was classified as V1, V2, V3 and V4, respectively, for pesticide

  9. Linking individual-tree and whole-stand models for forest growth and yield prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quang V Cao

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Background Different types of growth and yield models provide essential information for making informed decisions on how to manage forests. Whole-stand models often provide well-behaved outputs at the stand level, but lack information on stand structures. Detailed information from individual-tree models and size-class models typically suffers from accumulation of errors. The disaggregation method, in assuming that predictions from a whole-stand model are reliable, partitions these outputs to individual trees. On the other hand, the combination method seeks to improve stand-level predictions from both whole-stand and individual-tree models by combining them. Methods Data from 100 plots randomly selected from the Southwide Seed Source Study of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L. were used to evaluate the unadjusted individual-tree model against the disaggregation and combination methods. Results Compared to the whole-stand model, the combination method did not show improvements in predicting stand attributes in this study. The combination method also did not perform as well as the disaggregation method in tree-level predictions. The disaggregation method provided the best predictions of tree- and stand-level survival and growth. Conclusions The disaggregation approach provides a link between individual-tree models and whole-stand models, and should be considered as a better alternative to the unadjusted tree model.

  10. Calibration and Groundwater Management Scenario Analysis with the Scott Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolley, D. G.; Foglia, L.; Neumann, J.; Harter, T.

    2014-12-01

    Late summer streamflow for the Scott River in northern California has decreased approximately 50% since the mid 1960's, resulting in increased water temperatures and disconnection of certain portions of the stream which negatively impacts aquatic habitat of fish species such as coho and fall-run Chinook salmon. In collaboration with local stakeholders, the Scott Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model has been developed, which combines a water budget model and a groundwater-surface water model (MODLFOW) of the 200 km2 basin. The goal of the integrated model is to better understand the hydrologic system of the valley and explore effects of different groundwater management scenarios on late summer streamflow. The groundwater model has a quarter-hectare resolution with aggregated monthly stress periods over a 21 year period (1990-2011). The Scott River is represented using either the river (RIV) or streamflow routing (SFR) package. UCODE was used for sensitivity analysis and calibration using head observations for 52 wells in the basin and gain/loss observations for two sections of the river. Of 32 model parameters (hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, riverbed conductance and mountain recharge), 13 were found significantly sensitive to observations. Results from the calibration show excellent agreement between modeled and observed heads and to seasonal and interannual variations in streamflow. The calibrated model was used to evaluate several management scenarios: 1) alternative water budget which takes into account measured irrigation rates in the valley, 2) in-lieu recharge where surface-water instead of groundwater is used to irrigate fields near the river while streamflow is sufficiently high, and 3) managed recharge on agricultural fields in gulches on the eastern side of the valley in the winter months. Preliminary results indicate that alternative water management scenarios (in-lieu and managed recharge) significantly increase late summer streamflow by keeping

  11. Dynamics models and modeling of tree stand development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. V. Rogozin

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Brief analysis of scientific works in Russia and in the CIS over the past 100 years. Logical and mathematical models consider the conceptual and show some of the results of their verification. It was found that the models include different laws and the parameters, the sum of which allows you to divide them into four categories: models of static states, development models, models of care for the natural forest and models of cultivation. Each category has fulfilled and fulfills its tasks in economic management. Thus, the model states in statics (table traverse growth played a prominent role in figuring out what may be the most productive (full stands in different regions of the country. However, they do not answer the question of what the initial states lead to the production of complete stands. In a study of the growth of stands used system analysis, and it is observed dominance of works studying static state, snatched from the biological time. Therefore, the real drama of the growth of stands remained almost unexplored. It is no accident there were «chrono-forestry» «plantation forestry» and even «non-traditional forestry», where there is a strong case of a number of new concepts of development stands. That is quite in keeping with Kuhn (Kuhn, 2009 in the forestry crisis began – there were alternative theories and coexist conflicting scientific schools. To develop models of stand development, it is proposed to use a well-known method of repeated observations within 10–20 years, in conjunction with the explanation of the history of the initial density. It mounted on the basis of studying the dynamics of its indicators: the trunk, crown overlap coefficient, the sum of volumes of all crowns and the relative length of the crown. According to these indicators, the researcher selects natural series of development stands with the same initial density. As a theoretical basis for the models it is possible to postulate the general properties of

  12. A Tool for Model-Based Generation of Scenario-driven Electric Power Load Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozek, Matthew L.; Donahue, Kenneth M.; Ingham, Michel D.; Kaderka, Justin D.

    2015-01-01

    Power consumption during all phases of spacecraft flight is of great interest to the aerospace community. As a result, significant analysis effort is exerted to understand the rates of electrical energy generation and consumption under many operational scenarios of the system. Previously, no standard tool existed for creating and maintaining a power equipment list (PEL) of spacecraft components that consume power, and no standard tool existed for generating power load profiles based on this PEL information during mission design phases. This paper presents the Scenario Power Load Analysis Tool (SPLAT) as a model-based systems engineering tool aiming to solve those problems. SPLAT is a plugin for MagicDraw (No Magic, Inc.) that aids in creating and maintaining a PEL, and also generates a power and temporal variable constraint set, in Maple language syntax, based on specified operational scenarios. The constraint set can be solved in Maple to show electric load profiles (i.e. power consumption from loads over time). SPLAT creates these load profiles from three modeled inputs: 1) a list of system components and their respective power modes, 2) a decomposition hierarchy of the system into these components, and 3) the specification of at least one scenario, which consists of temporal constraints on component power modes. In order to demonstrate how this information is represented in a system model, a notional example of a spacecraft planetary flyby is introduced. This example is also used to explain the overall functionality of SPLAT, and how this is used to generate electric power load profiles. Lastly, a cursory review of the usage of SPLAT on the Cold Atom Laboratory project is presented to show how the tool was used in an actual space hardware design application.

  13. Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of climate change impacts in Copenhagen, Denmark, were supplemented by 2 high-end scenario simulations. These include...... to pluvial flooding that makes the urban areas more robust and reduces the risk of flooding under the current climate to a very low level. The reduction in flood risk for the A1B scenario is substantial (corresponding to 0.2-0.3 times the current EAD in 2100), and even in the high-end scenarios, the risk...... a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do...

  14. Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning: Scenario Case Studies Using the Resource Planning Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barrows, Clayton [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dyson, Mark [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-04-01

    In this report, we analyze the impacts of model configuration and detail in capacity expansion models, computational tools used by utility planners looking to find the least cost option for planning the system and by researchers or policy makers attempting to understand the effects of various policy implementations. The present analysis focuses on the importance of model configurations — particularly those related to capacity credit, dispatch modeling, and transmission modeling — to the construction of scenario futures. Our analysis is primarily directed toward advanced tools used for utility planning and is focused on those impacts that are most relevant to decisions with respect to future renewable capacity deployment. To serve this purpose, we develop and employ the NREL Resource Planning Model to conduct a case study analysis that explores 12 separate capacity expansion scenarios of the Western Interconnection through 2030.

  15. Yield curve event tree construction for multi stage stochastic programming models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Kourosh Marjani; Poulsen, Rolf

    Dynamic stochastic programming (DSP) provides an intuitive framework for modelling of financial portfolio choice problems where market frictions are present and dynamic re--balancing has a significant effect on initial decisions. The application of these models in practice, however, is limited...... by the quality and size of the event trees representing the underlying uncertainty. Most often the DSP literature assumes existence of ``appropriate'' event trees without defining and examining qualities that must be met (ex--ante) in such an event tree in order for the results of the DSP model to be reliable....... Indeed defining a universal and tractable framework for fully ``appropriate'' event trees is in our opinion an impossible task. A problem specific approach to designing such event trees is the way ahead. In this paper we propose a number of desirable properties which should be present in an event tree...

  16. Top-down induction of model trees with regression and splitting nodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malerba, Donato; Esposito, Floriana; Ceci, Michelangelo; Appice, Annalisa

    2004-05-01

    Model trees are an extension of regression trees that associate leaves with multiple regression models. In this paper, a method for the data-driven construction of model trees is presented, namely, the Stepwise Model Tree Induction (SMOTI) method. Its main characteristic is the induction of trees with two types of nodes: regression nodes, which perform only straight-line regression, and splitting nodes, which partition the feature space. The multiple linear model associated with each leaf is then built stepwise by combining straight-line regressions reported along the path from the root to the leaf. In this way, internal regression nodes contribute to the definition of multiple models and have a "global" effect, while straight-line regressions at leaves have only "local" effects. Experimental results on artificially generated data sets show that SMOTI outperforms two model tree induction systems, M5' and RETIS, in accuracy. Results on benchmark data sets used for studies on both regression and model trees show that SMOTI performs better than RETIS in accuracy, while it is not possible to draw statistically significant conclusions on the comparison with M5'. Model trees induced by SMOTI are generally simple and easily interpretable and their analysis often reveals interesting patterns.

  17. Subsurface Flow Model Calibration under Uncertain Geologic Scenarios with Adaptive Sparse Reconstruction Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khaninezhad, M. M.; Jafarpour, B.

    2013-12-01

    Construction of predictive aquifer and reservoir models involves subjective interpretation and interpolation of spatially limited data and imperfect modeling assumptions. Hence, the process can introduce significant uncertainty and bias into subsurface flow and transport modeling. In particular, the uncertainty in the geologic continuity model can markedly degrade the quality of fluid displacement predictions and, hence, the efficiency of resource development plans. We present a novel approach for flow model calibration under uncertainty in geologic continuity model. Our approach is inspired by recent advances in sparse reconstruction and takes advantage of the selection property of the l1-norm minimization in sparse bases. Using an adaptive saprse reconstruction framework, we develop a prior model identification method to discriminate against distinct prior geologic continuity models (e.g., variograms) that are proposed for model calibration. Realizations from each geologic continuity model are used to generate a diverse geologic dictionary that compactly represents models from each proposed prior geologic scenario. The inversion method is initialized by taking the same number of elements from each prior geologic continuity model. At each iteration of the nonlinear model calibration process the contribution of the proposed prior models to the reconstructed solution is monitored and, to improve the solution quality, elements from inconsistent prior models are replaced with additional elements from geologically consistent priors. We use several numerical examples to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive prior identification approach for model calibration under uncertainty in prior geologic continuity.

  18. Modeling of supercritical extraction of mannitol from plane tree leaf.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghoreishi, S M; Sharifi, S

    2001-03-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the theoretical feasibility of using supercritical fluid extraction of Mannitol from plane tree leaf as an alternative technology in the pharmaceutical industry. Simulation of an extraction column using dense liquid and supercritical carbon dioxide was modeled involving partial differential equations, using orthogonal collocation on finite elements. The important solvent extraction parameters such as the partition coefficient, mass transfer coefficient, dispersion coefficient, molecular diffusion and extraction efficiency (the amount of Mannitol extracted versus the amount of solvent used) were investigated as a function of the dimensionless Reynold's and Peclet numbers in order to optimize the extraction column geometry and the carbon dioxide operating conditions. The results of this study demonstrated that supercritical extraction is a viable technique for Mannitol production and that the process conditions for a large commercial extraction system do not require a high temperature in order to obtain a high extraction efficiency. However, at low pressures, the solubility of Mannitol in carbon dioxide would limit the success of the extraction process and at very high pressures the extraction technique may not be economically feasible. To investigate the authenticity of the mathematical model, the experimental data for the desorption of hexachlorobenzene from soil was compared with the theoretical results of this research. The model is able to predict the experimental data quite well without any adjustable parameters.

  19. Effect of Additional Incentives for Aviation Biofuels: Results from the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vimmerstedt, Laura J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, Emily K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-12-05

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory supported the Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office, with analysis of alternative jet fuels in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration. Airlines for America requested additional exploratory scenarios within FAA analytic framework. Airlines for America requested additional analysis using the same analytic framework, the Biomass Scenario Model. The results were presented at a public working meeting of the California Air Resources Board on including alternative jet fuel in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard on March 17, 2017 (https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/lcfs_meetings.htm). This presentation clarifies and annotates the slides from the public working meeting, and provides a link to the full data set. NREL does not advocate for or against the policies analyzed in this study.

  20. Dynamic influent pollutant disturbance scenario generation using a phenomenological modelling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gernaey, Krist; Flores Alsina, Xavier; Rosen, Christian

    2011-01-01

    block for flow rate generation, 2) model block for pollutants generation (carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus), 3) model block for temperature generation and 4) model block for transport of water and pollutants. The paper is illustrated with the results obtained during the development of the dynamic......Activated Sludge Models are widely used for simulation-based evaluation of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) performance. However, due to the high workload and cost of a measuring campaign on a full-scale WWTP, many simulation studies suffer from lack of sufficiently long influent flow rate...... and concentration time series representing realistic wastewater influent dynamics. In this paper, a simple phenomenological modelling approach is proposed as an alternative to generate dynamic influent pollutant disturbance scenarios. The presented set of models is constructed following the principles of parsimony...

  1. Modeling individual trees in an urban environment using dense discrete return LIDAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandyopadhyay, Madhurima; van Aardt, Jan A. N.; van Leeuwen, Martin

    2015-05-01

    The urban forest is becoming increasingly important in the contexts of urban green space, carbon sequestration and offsets, and socio-economic impacts. This has led to a recent increase in attention being paid to urban environmental management. Tree biomass, specifically, is a vital indicator of carbon storage and has a direct impact on urban forest health and carbon sequestration. As an alternative to expensive and time-consuming field surveys, remote sensing has been used extensively in measuring dynamics of vegetation and estimating biomass. Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) has proven especially useful to characterize the three dimensional (3D) structure of forests. In urban contexts however, information is frequently required at the individual tree level, necessitating the proper delineation of tree crowns. Yet, crown delineation is challenging for urban trees where a wide range of stress factors and cultural influences affect growth. In this paper high resolution LiDAR data were used to infer biomass based on individual tree attributes. A multi-tiered delineation algorithm was designed to extract individual tree-crowns. At first, dominant tree segments were obtained by applying watershed segmentation on the crown height model (CHM). Next, prominent tree top positions within each segment were identified via a regional maximum transformation and the crown boundary was estimated for each of the tree tops. Finally, undetected trees were identified using a best-fitting circle approach. After tree delineation, individual tree attributes were used to estimate tree biomass and the results were validated with associated field mensuration data. Results indicate that the overall tree detection accuracy is nearly 80%, and the estimated biomass model has an adjusted-R2 of 0.5.

  2. Modeling carbon allocation in trees: a search for principles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Oskar; Johansson, Jacob; Dewar, Roderick C; Dieckmann, Ulf; McMurtrie, Ross E; Brännström, Ake; Dybzinski, Ray

    2012-06-01

    We review approaches to predicting carbon and nitrogen allocation in forest models in terms of their underlying assumptions and their resulting strengths and limitations. Empirical and allometric methods are easily developed and computationally efficient, but lack the power of evolution-based approaches to explain and predict multifaceted effects of environmental variability and climate change. In evolution-based methods, allocation is usually determined by maximization of a fitness proxy, either in a fixed environment, which we call optimal response (OR) models, or including the feedback of an individual's strategy on its environment (game-theoretical optimization, GTO). Optimal response models can predict allocation in single trees and stands when there is significant competition only for one resource. Game-theoretical optimization can be used to account for additional dimensions of competition, e.g., when strong root competition boosts root allocation at the expense of wood production. However, we demonstrate that an OR model predicts similar allocation to a GTO model under the root-competitive conditions reported in free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiments. The most evolutionarily realistic approach is adaptive dynamics (AD) where the allocation strategy arises from eco-evolutionary dynamics of populations instead of a fitness proxy. We also discuss emerging entropy-based approaches that offer an alternative thermodynamic perspective on allocation, in which fitness proxies are replaced by entropy or entropy production. To help develop allocation models further, the value of wide-ranging datasets, such as FLUXNET, could be greatly enhanced by ancillary measurements of driving variables, such as water and soil nitrogen availability.

  3. Incorporating geolocical constraints into stochastic scenarios for tsunami inundation modeling: Application to northern Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalan, P. A.; Ortega, M.; Gonzalez, G.; González-Carrasco, J. F.; Cienfuegos, R.

    2016-12-01

    Forecasting the tsunami hazard is a challenging task due to the inherent uncertainties, both epistemic or aleatoric, that exist in determining the occurrence, magnitude and slip distribution of the parent earthquake. As a result, the typical approach relies on estimating the hazard based on deterministic earthquake scenarios, where a given magnitude is used as a constraint to determine the size and overall shape of the rupture zone. However, this approach does not take into account the variability in the slip distribution that may be present on a real event. Slip variability plays a key role in the spatial distribution of tsunami energy, and it controls tsunami inundation and runup. Recently, models incorporating this variability have been proposed, under the assumption that the slip distribution follows either a prescribed physical model, such as k^-2 distribution; or one that is suited to reproduce the observed distribution of a prior earthquake. While this allows for an enhanced assessment of the resulting variability, the former approach does not constrain the resulting slip distributions to geological aspects such as the inter seismic coupling. The latter, in turn, is controlled by a single prior event, and may not reproduce the overall variability of the source area. In the present work, we introduce a measure of the inter seismic coupling as a controlling factor to define patches where slip would concentrate, while allowing sufficient variability in the overall slip distribution. We do this by first establishing a representative model for the heterogeneous slip distribution for the northern Chile seismic gap. The analysis yields that a Von Karman auto-correlation function is successful in describing the spatial characteristics of slip. Next, stochastic slip scenarios are generated and filtered by minimizing two parameters: the overall difference in average slip and the difference between the centroids. This allows for selecting as candidates only those

  4. Model-based Evaluation of Location-based Relaying Policies in a Realistic Mobile Indoor Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jimmy Jessen; Olsen, Rasmus Løvenstein; Madsen, Tatiana Kozlova

    2012-01-01

    For WLAN systems in which relaying is exploited for improving throughput performance, node mobility and in- formation collection delays can have a significant impact on the performance of a relay selection scheme. This paper analyzes this influence on the decision process using a previously...... developed Markov Chain model for a realistic indoor scenario that is based on ray-tracing enriched measurements from the WHERE2 project. These results are furthermore compared to results obtained using an idealistic path loss model, and it is shown that the performance impact of node mobility...

  5. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  6. Estimates of live-tree carbon stores in the Pacific Northwest are sensitive to model selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fried Jeremy S

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimates of live-tree carbon stores are influenced by numerous uncertainties. One of them is model-selection uncertainty: one has to choose among multiple empirical equations and conversion factors that can be plausibly justified as locally applicable to calculate the carbon store from inventory measurements such as tree height and diameter at breast height (DBH. Here we quantify the model-selection uncertainty for the five most numerous tree species in six counties of northwest Oregon, USA. Results The results of our study demonstrate that model-selection error may introduce 20 to 40% uncertainty into a live-tree carbon estimate, possibly making this form of error the largest source of uncertainty in estimation of live-tree carbon stores. The effect of model selection could be even greater if models are applied beyond the height and DBH ranges for which they were developed. Conclusions Model-selection uncertainty is potentially large enough that it could limit the ability to track forest carbon with the precision and accuracy required by carbon accounting protocols. Without local validation based on detailed measurements of usually destructively sampled trees, it is very difficult to choose the best model when there are several available. Our analysis suggests that considering tree form in equation selection may better match trees to existing equations and that substantial gaps exist, in terms of both species and diameter ranges, that are ripe for new model-building effort.

  7. Models for estimation of tree volume in the miombo woodlands of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study developed models for estimating total, merchantable stem and branches volume applicable for the entire miombo woodlands of Tanzania. ... The relative mean prediction error of the general total tree volume model with diameter at breast height and tree height was lower (0.6%) than those of the previously ...

  8. Comparing i-Tree modeled ozone deposition with field measurements in a periurban Mediterranean forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. Morani; D. Nowak; S. Hirabayashi; G. Guidolotti; M. Medori; V. Muzzini; S. Fares; G. Scarascia Mugnozza; C. Calfapietra

    2014-01-01

    Ozone flux estimates from the i-Tree model were compared with ozone flux measurements using the Eddy Covariance technique in a periurban Mediterranean forest near Rome (Castelporziano). For the first time i-Tree model outputs were compared with field measurements in relation to dry deposition estimates. Results showed generally a...

  9. A modeling study of the impact of urban trees on ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. Nowak; Kevin L. Civerolo; S. Trivikrama Rao; Gopal Sistla; Christopher J. Luley; Daniel E. Crane

    2000-01-01

    Modeling the effects of increased urban tree cover on ozone concentrations (July 13-15, 1995) from Washington, DC, to central Massachusetts reveals that urban trees generally reduce ozone concentrations in cities, but tend to increase average ozone concentrations in the overall modeling domain. During the daytime, average ozone reductions in urban areas (1 ppb) were...

  10. A description of STEMS-- the stand and tree evaluation and modeling system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David M. Belcher; Margaret R. Holdaway; Gary J. Brand

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes STEMS (Stand and Tree Evaluation and Modeling System), the current computerized Lake State tree growth projection system. It presents the program structure, discusses the growth and mortality components, the management subsystem, and the regeneration subsystem. Some preliminary results of model testing are presented and an application is...

  11. Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Liu

    Full Text Available Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1 and summer maize (scenario 2 by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China.

  12. Tree-like structure of eternal inflation: A solvable model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlow, Daniel; Shenker, Stephen H.; Stanford, Douglas; Susskind, Leonard

    2012-03-01

    In this paper we introduce a simple discrete stochastic model of eternal inflation that shares many of the most important features of the continuum theory as it is now understood. The model allows us to construct a multiverse and rigorously analyze its properties. Although simple and easy to solve, it has a rich mathematical structure underlying it. Despite the discreteness of the space-time the theory exhibits an unexpected nonperturbative analog of conformal symmetry that acts on the boundary of the geometry. The symmetry is rooted in the mathematical properties of trees, p-adic numbers, and ultrametric spaces; and in the physical property of detailed balance. We provide self-contained elementary explanations of the unfamiliar mathematical concepts, which have also appeared in the study of the p-adic string. The symmetry acts on a huge collection of very low-dimensional “multiverse fields” that are not associated with the usual perturbative degrees of freedom. They are connected with the late-time statistical distribution of bubble-universes in the multiverse. The conformal symmetry which acts on the multiverse fields is broken by the existence of terminal decays—to hats or crunches—but in a particularly simple way. We interpret this symmetry breaking as giving rise to an arrow of time. The model is used to calculate statistical correlations at late time and to discuss the measure problem. We show that the natural cutoff in the model is the analog of the so-called light-cone-time cutoff. Applying the model to the problem of the cosmological constant, we find agreement with earlier work.

  13. A model based bayesian solution for characterization of complex damage scenarios in aerospace composite structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, H; Leckey, Cara A C; Dick, A; Harvey, G; Dobson, J

    2018-01-01

    Ultrasonic damage detection and characterization is commonly used in nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of aerospace composite components. In recent years there has been an increased development of guided wave based methods. In real materials and structures, these dispersive waves result in complicated behavior in the presence of complex damage scenarios. Model-based characterization methods utilize accurate three dimensional finite element models (FEMs) of guided wave interaction with realistic damage scenarios to aid in defect identification and classification. This work describes an inverse solution for realistic composite damage characterization by comparing the wavenumber-frequency spectra of experimental and simulated ultrasonic inspections. The composite laminate material properties are first verified through a Bayesian solution (Markov chain Monte Carlo), enabling uncertainty quantification surrounding the characterization. A study is undertaken to assess the efficacy of the proposed damage model and comparative metrics between the experimental and simulated output. The FEM is then parameterized with a damage model capable of describing the typical complex damage created by impact events in composites. The damage is characterized through a transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo solution, enabling a flexible damage model capable of adapting to the complex damage geometry investigated here. The posterior probability distributions of the individual delamination petals as well as the overall envelope of the damage site are determined. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Propagation Path Loss Models for 5G Urban Micro- and Macro-Cellular Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sun, Shu; Rappaport, Theodore S.; Rangan, Sundeep

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents and compares two candidate large-scale propagation path loss models, the alpha-beta-gamma (ABG) model and the close-in (CI) free space reference distance model, for the design of fifth generation (5G) wireless communication systems in urban micro- and macro-cellular scenarios....... Comparisons are made using the data obtained from 20 propagation measurement campaigns or ray-tracing studies from 2 GHz to 73.5 GHz over distances ranging from 5 m to 1429 m. The results show that the one-parameter CI model has a very similar goodness of fit (i.e., the shadow fading standard deviation......) in both line-of-sight and non-line-of-sight environments, while offering substantial simplicity and more stable behavior across frequencies and distances, as compared to the three-parameter ABG model....

  15. Artificial neural network surrogate development of equivalence models for nuclear data uncertainty propagation in scenario studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krivtchik Guillaume

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Scenario studies simulate the whole fuel cycle over a period of time, from extraction of natural resources to geological storage. Through the comparison of different reactor fleet evolutions and fuel management options, they constitute a decision-making support. Consequently uncertainty propagation studies, which are necessary to assess the robustness of the studies, are strategic. Among numerous types of physical model in scenario computation that generate uncertainty, the equivalence models, built for calculating fresh fuel enrichment (for instance plutonium content in PWR MOX so as to be representative of nominal fuel behavior, are very important. The equivalence condition is generally formulated in terms of end-of-cycle mean core reactivity. As this results from a physical computation, it is therefore associated with an uncertainty. A state-of-the-art of equivalence models is exposed and discussed. It is shown that the existing equivalent models implemented in scenario codes, such as COSI6, are not suited to uncertainty propagation computation, for the following reasons: (i existing analytical models neglect irradiation, which has a strong impact on the result and its uncertainty; (ii current black-box models are not suited to cross-section perturbations management; and (iii models based on transport and depletion codes are too time-consuming for stochastic uncertainty propagation. A new type of equivalence model based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN has been developed, constructed with data calculated with neutron transport and depletion codes. The model inputs are the fresh fuel isotopy, the irradiation parameters (burnup, core fractionation, etc., cross-sections perturbations and the equivalence criterion (for instance the core target reactivity in pcm at the end of the irradiation cycle. The model output is the fresh fuel content such that target reactivity is reached at the end of the irradiation cycle. Those models are built and

  16. Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios; Modelisation climatique du Bassin mediterraneen: variabilite et scenarios de changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Somot, S

    2005-12-15

    Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

  17. Tree-Level Hydrodynamic Approach for Modeling Aboveground Water Storage and Stomatal Conductance Highlights the Effects of Tree Hydraulic Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirfenderesgi, G.; Bohrer, G.; Matheny, A. M.; Fatichi, S.; Frasson, R. P. M.; Schafer, K. V.

    2016-12-01

    The Finite-difference Ecosystem-scale Tree-Crown Hydrodynamics model version 2 (FETCH2) is a novel tree-scale hydrodynamic model of transpiration. The FETCH2 model employs a finite difference numerical methodology and a simplified single-beam conduit system and simulates water flow through the tree as a continuum of porous media conduits. It explicitly resolves xylem water potential throughout the tree's vertical extent. Empirical equations relate water potential within the stem to stomatal conductance of the leaves at each height throughout the crown. While highly simplified, this approach brings additional realism to the simulation of transpiration by linking stomatal responses to stem water potential rather than directly to soil moisture, as is currently the case in the majority of land-surface models. FETCH2 accounts for plant hydraulic traits, such as the degree of anisohydric/isohydric response of stomata, maximal xylem conductivity, vertical distribution of leaf area, and maximal and minimal stemwater content. We used FETCH2 along with sap flow and eddy covariance data sets collected from a mixed plot of two genera (oak/pine) in Silas Little Experimental Forest, NJ, USA, to conduct an analysis of the inter-genera variation of hydraulic strategies and their effects on diurnal and seasonal transpiration dynamics. We define these strategies through the parameters that describe the genus-level transpiration and xylem conductivity responses to changes in stem water potential. A virtual experiment showed that the model was able to capture the effect of hydraulic strategies such as isohydric/anisohydric behavior on stomatal conductance under different soil-water availability conditions. Our evaluation revealed that FETCH2 considerably improved the simulation of ecosystem transpiration and latent heat flux than more conventional models.

  18. Modeling Caspian Sea water level oscillations under different scenarios of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roshan GholamReza

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978 has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in the coastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was simulated. Variations in environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, atmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for both past (1951-2006 and future (2025-2100 time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software (version 5.3. The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site has increased by ca. 0.17°C per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21. The Caspian Sea water level has increased by ca. +36cm per decade (r=0.82 between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64°C and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin, temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78°C and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels project future water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

  19. Assessing nitrate leaching losses with simulation scenarios and model based fertiliser recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalczyk, A.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Hartmann, T.; Yue, S. C.; Chen, X. P.

    2012-04-01

    Excessive mineral nitrogen fertiliser application and irrigation in intensive agricultural cropping systems is seen as a major reason for low water and nitrogen use efficiencies in the North China Plain. High nitrogen fertiliser and irrigation water inputs do not only lead to higher production costs but also to decreasing ground water tables, nitrate accumulation in deeper soil layers below the root zone and water pollution. To evaluate the effects of improved management practices on environmental pollution risk, the HERMES model is used to simulate nitrate leaching losses. The HERMES model is a dynamic, process based crop model made for practical applications such as fertiliser recommendations. The model was tested and validated on two field studies in the south of the Hebei Province that lasted for about three years with a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and summer maize (Zea mays L.) double cropping system. Biomass, grain yield, plant N uptake and soil water content were better simulated than mineral nitrogen in the soil. A model based nitrogen fertiliser recommendation was applied in the field for one wheat crop. The parallel model simulation showed satisfying results. Although there was no change in the amount of irrigation, the results indicated a possibility to reduce the fertiliser rate and thus nitrogen leaching even more than in the reduced treatment without reducing crop yields. Further more a simulation scenario with a model based fertiliser recommendation and a field capacity based irrigation was compared to farmers practice and reduced nitrogen treatment. The scenario results showed that the model recommendation together with the reduced irrigation has the highest potential to reduce nitrate leaching. The results also showed that flood irrigation as practiced by the farmers and its difficult to estimate amounts of water bears a big uncertainty for modelling.

  20. Biomass Scenario Model: BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, B.

    2015-03-23

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art fourth-generation model of the domestic bioenergy supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, behavior, policy, and physical, technological, and economic constraints. The BSM uses system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. It places a strong emphasis on the behavior and decision-making of various economic agents. The model treats the major infrastructure-compatible fuels. Scenario analysis based on the BSM shows that the biofuels industry tends not to rapidly thrive without significant external actions in the early years of its evolution. An initial focus for jumpstarting the industry typically has strongest results in the BSM in areas where effects of intervention have been identified to be multiplicative. In general, we find that policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain have significant impact in fostering the growth of the biofuels industry and that the production of tens of billions of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.

  1. Reuse-centric Requirements Analysis with Task Models, Scenarios, and Critical Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cyril Montabert

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines a requirements-analysis process that unites task models, scenarios, and critical parameters to exploit and generate reusable knowledge at the requirements phase. Through the deployment of a critical-parameter-based approach to task modeling, the process yields the establishment of an integrative and formalized model issued from scenarios that can be used for requirements characterization. Furthermore, not only can this entity serve as interface to a knowledge repository relying on a critical-parameter-based taxonomy to support reuse but its characterization in terms of critical parameters also allows the model to constitute a broader reuse solution. We discuss our vision for a user-centric and reuse-centric approach to requirements analysis, present previous efforts implicated with this line of work, and state the revisions brought to extend the reuse potential and effectiveness of a previous iteration of a requirements tool implementing such process. Finally, the paper describes the sequence and nature of the activities involved with the conduct of our proposed requirements-analysis technique, concluding by previewing ongoing work in the field that will explore the feasibility for designers to use our approach.

  2. Scenario Object Model Based On-Line Safety Analysis for Chemical Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong Gao

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available HAZOP (Hazard and Operability Analysis is a method of safety analysis, which is widely used in chemical processes. The conventional methods for safety analysis consist of human based safety analysis and computer aid safety analysis. All of them are off-line and qualitative and it is difficult to carry out on-line safety analysis. On-line safety analysis based on scenario object model was proposed for chemical processes. The scenario object model was built using ontology, by which the safety information can be transferred, reused and shared effectively. Deviation degree and qualitative trend were added to the model. Based on the model and new inference algorithm, on-line safety analysis can be implemented for chemical processes. Once a fault or abnormal event occurs, the causes can be traced and the consequences can be predicted. At the same time, semi-quantitative safety analysis is carried out. The resolution can be improved and it can help the operators handle the problems in time and effectively. The method was used for safety analysis of a reactor process and the effectiveness of the method was proved.

  3. Modelling moose–forest interactions under different predation scenarios at Isle Royale National Park, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeJager, Nathan R.; Rohweder, Jason; Miranda, Brian R.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Fox, Timothy J.; Romanski, Mark C.

    2017-01-01

    Loss of top predators may contribute to high ungulate population densities and chronic over-browsing of forest ecosystems. However, spatial and temporal variability in the strength of interactions between predators and ungulates occurs over scales that are much shorter than the scales over which forest communities change, making it difficult to characterize trophic cascades in forest ecosystems. We applied the LANDIS-II forest succession model and a recently developed ungulate browsing extension to model how the moose population could interact with the forest ecosystem of Isle Royale National Park, USA, under three different wolf predation scenarios. We contrasted a 100-yr future without wolves (no predation) with two predation scenarios (weak, long-term average predation rates and strong, higher than average rates). Increasing predation rates led to lower peak moose population densities, lower biomass removal rates, and higher estimates of forage availability and landscape carrying capacity, especially during the first 40 yr of simulations. Thereafter, moose population density was similar for all predation scenarios, but available forage biomass and the carrying capacity of the landscape continued to diverge among predation scenarios. Changes in total aboveground live biomass and species composition were most pronounced in the no predation and weak predation scenarios. Consistent with smaller-scale studies, high browsing rates led to reductions in the biomass of heavily browsed Populus tremuloides, Betula papyrifera, and Abies balsamea, and increases in the biomass of unbrowsed Picea glauca and Picea mariana, especially after the simulation year 2050, when existing boreal hardwood stands at Isle Royale are projected to senesce. As a consequence, lower predation rates corresponded with a landscape that progressively shifted toward dominance by Picea glauca and Picea mariana, and lacking available forage biomass. Consistencies with previously documented

  4. Models for Predicting the Biomass of Cunninghamialanceolata Trees and Stands in Southeastern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guangyi, Mei; Yujun, Sun; Saeed, Sajjad

    2017-01-01

    Using existing equations to estimate the biomass of a single tree or a forest stand still involves large uncertainties. In this study, we developed individual-tree biomass models for Chinese Fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata.) stands in Fujian Province, southeast China, by using 74 previously established models that have been most commonly used to estimate tree biomass. We selected the best fit models and modified them. The results showed that the published model ln(B(Biomass)) = a + b * ln(D) + c * (ln(H))2 + d * (ln(H))3 + e * ln(WD) had the best fit for estimating the tree biomass of Chinese Fir stands. Furthermore, we observed that variables D(diameter at breast height), H (height), and WD(wood density)were significantly correlated with the total tree biomass estimation model. As a result, a natural logarithm structure gave the best estimates for the tree biomass structure. Finally, when a multi-step improvement on tree biomass model was performed, the tree biomass model with Tree volume(TV), WD and biomass wood density conversion factor (BECF),achieved the highest simulation accuracy, expressed as ln(TB) = -0.0703 + 0.9780 * ln(TV) + 0.0213 * ln(WD) + 1.0166 * ln(BECF). Therefore, when TV, WD and BECF were combined with tree biomass volume coefficient bi for Chinese Fir, the stand biomass (SB)model included both volume(SV) and coefficient bi variables of the stand as follows: bi = Exp(-0.0703+0.9780*ln(TV)+0.0213 * ln(WD)+1.0166*ln(BECF)). The stand biomass model is SB = SV/TV * bi.

  5. Predictive mapping of soil organic carbon in wet cultivated lands using classification-tree based models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kheir, Rania Bou; Greve, Mogens Humlekrog; Bøcher, Peder Klith

    2010-01-01

    the geographic distribution of SOC across Denmark using remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GISs) and decision-tree modeling (un-pruned and pruned classification trees). Seventeen parameters, i.e. parent material, soil type, landscape type, elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, mean curvature...... field measurements in the area of interest (Denmark). A large number of tree-based classification models (588) were developed using (i) all of the parameters, (ii) all Digital Elevation Model (DEM) parameters only, (iii) the primary DEM parameters only, (iv), the remote sensing (RS) indices only, (v......) selected pairs of parameters, (vi) soil type, parent material and landscape type only, and (vii) the parameters having a high impact on SOC distribution in built pruned trees. The best constructed classification tree models (in the number of three) with the lowest misclassification error (ME...

  6. An avionics scenario and command model description for Space Generic Open Avionics Architecture (SGOAA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stovall, John R.; Wray, Richard B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a description of a model for a space vehicle operational scenario and the commands for avionics. This model will be used in developing a dynamic architecture simulation model using the Statemate CASE tool for validation of the Space Generic Open Avionics Architecture (SGOAA). The SGOAA has been proposed as an avionics architecture standard to NASA through its Strategic Avionics Technology Working Group (SATWG) and has been accepted by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) for conversion into an SAE Avionics Standard. This architecture was developed for the Flight Data Systems Division (FDSD) of the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) by the Lockheed Engineering and Sciences Company (LESC), Houston, Texas. This SGOAA includes a generic system architecture for the entities in spacecraft avionics, a generic processing external and internal hardware architecture, and a nine class model of interfaces. The SGOAA is both scalable and recursive and can be applied to any hierarchical level of hardware/software processing systems.

  7. The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Scarborough; Harrington, Richard A.; Anja Mizdrak; Lijuan Marissa Zhou; Aiden Doherty

    2014-01-01

    Noncommunicable disease (NCD) scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects) and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl) is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimat...

  8. Application of Inverse Modeling to Estimate Groundwater Recharge under Future Climate Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbariyeh, S.; Wang, T.; Bartelt-Hunt, S.; Li, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Climate variability and change will impose profound influences on groundwater systems. Accurate estimation of groundwater recharge is extremely important for predicting the flow and contaminant transport in the subsurface, which, however, remains as one of the most challenging tasks in the field of hydrology. Using an inverse modeling technique and HYDRUS 1D software, we predicted the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge across the Upper Platte basin in Nebraska, USA, based on 5-year projected future climate and soil moisture data (2057-2060). The climate data was obtained from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. Precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and soil moisture data were extracted from 76 grids located within the Upper Platte basin to perform the inverse modeling. Hargreaves equation was used to calculate the potential evapotranspiration according to latitude, maximum and minimum temperature, and leaf area index (LAI) data at each node. Van-Genuchten parameters were optimized using the inverse algorithm to minimize the error between input and modeled soil moisture data. The groundwater recharge was calculated as the amount of water that passed the lower boundary of the best fitted model. The year of 2057 was used as a spin-up period to minimize the impact of initial conditions. The model was calibrated for years 2058 to 2059 and validation was performed for 2060. This work demonstrates an efficient approach to estimating groundwater recharge based on climate modeling results, which will aid groundwater resources management under future climate scenarios.

  9. Speech recognition based on statistical models including multiple phonetic decision trees

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Shiota, Sayaka; Hashimoto, Kei; Zen, Heiga; Nankaku, Yoshihiko; Lee, Akinobu; Tokuda, Keiichi

    2011-01-01

    We propose a speech recognition technique using multiple model structures. In the use of context-dependent models, decision-tree-based context clustering is applied to find an appropriate parameter tying structure...

  10. Dynamics of Aviation Biofuel Investment, Incentives, and Market Growth: An Exploration Using the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vimmerstedt, Laura; Newes, Emily

    2016-10-25

    The Federal Aviation Administration promotes the development of an aviation biofuel market, and has pursued a goal of 1 billion gallons of production annually by 2018. Although this goal is unlikely to be met, this analysis applies the Biomass Scenario Model to explore conditions affecting market growth, and identifies policy incentive and oil price conditions under which this level of production might occur, and by what year. Numerous combinations of conditions that are more favorable than current conditions can reach the goal before 2030.

  11. Peri-urban futures: Scenarios and models for land use change in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    on a pan-European level Has a conclusive didactic approach + text structure (e.g. inserts, boxes ...) Presently, peri-urbanisation is one of the most pervasive processes of land use change in Europe with strong impacts on both the environment and quality of life. It is a matter of great urgency...... by linking quantitative scenario modeling and sustainability impact analysis with qualitative and in-depth analysis of regional strategies, as well as including a study at European level with case study work also involving a Chinese case study....

  12. Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2009-01-01

    Global warming factors (kg CO2-eq.-tonne—1 of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper, glass, plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling, incineration or mechanical—biological waste......-biological treatment saved 200— 750 kg CO2-eq. tonne— 1 municipal waste depending on recycling scheme and energy recovery. Key parameters were the amount of paper recycled (it was assumed that wood made excessive by paper recycling substituted for fossil fuel), the crediting of the waste management system...

  13. Escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Probabilistic cause and consequence modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eknes, Monika Loeland

    1996-12-31

    This Dr. ing. thesis deals with escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Gas explosions is one of the major hazards to such installations. The objectives were to estimate the probability of ignition and frequency of gas explosions for gas leaks on top sides of offshore installations, and to estimate the response and resistance of components that could result in escalation if they failed. Main fields considered cover risk analysis methodology, gas explosions, simplified escalation models, evaluation of structural consequences, case studies, and guidelines. 107 refs., 33 figs., 33 tabs.

  14. Climate protection scenario 2050. 1. Meeting on modeling; Klimaschutzszenario 2050. 1. Modellierungsrunde.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Repenning, Julia; Matthes, Felix C.; Blanck, R. [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Berlin (Germany); and others

    2014-08-04

    The report on the meeting of the experts on modeling of the climate protection scenario 2050 summarizes the substantial results: 80-90% reduction the greenhouse gas emissions means a reduction of fossil energy carriers by up to 98%. The electricity generation industry has to provide most of the reduction since esp. agriculture cannot reduce the CO2 emissions. The amount of renewable energy for electricity production has to increase to about 95%. The economic analysis shows that a strategy of energy efficiency and electricity production from renewable energy sources plus product innovation is a no-regret strategy that will be advantageous for Germany in a long-term.

  15. DO3SE modelling of soil moisture to determine ozone flux to forest trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Schaub

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The DO3SE (Deposition of O3 for Stomatal Exchange model is an established tool for estimating ozone (O3 deposition, stomatal flux and impacts to a variety of vegetation types across Europe. It has been embedded within the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme photochemical model to provide a policy tool capable of relating the flux-based risk of vegetation damage to O3 precursor emission scenarios for use in policy formulation. A key limitation of regional flux-based risk assessments has been the assumption that soil water deficits are not limiting O3 flux due to the unavailability of evaluated methods for modelling soil water deficits and their influence on stomatal conductance (gsto, and subsequent O3 flux. This paper describes the development and evaluation of a method to estimate soil moisture status and its influence on gsto for a variety of forest tree species. This DO3SE soil moisture module uses the Penman-Monteith energy balance method to drive water cycling through the soil-plant-atmosphere system and empirical data describing gsto relationships with pre-dawn leaf water status to estimate the biological control of transpiration. We trial four different methods to estimate this biological control of the transpiration stream, which vary from simple methods that relate soil water content or potential directly to gsto, to more complex methods that incorporate hydraulic resistance and plant capacitance that control water flow through the plant system. These methods are evaluated against field data describing a variety of soil water variables, gsto and transpiration data for Norway spruce (Picea abies, Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris, birch (Betula pendula, aspen (Populus tremuloides, beech (Fagus sylvatica and holm oak (Quercus ilex collected from ten sites across Europe and North America. Modelled estimates of these variables show consistency with observed data when applying the simple empirical methods, with the timing and

  16. Regression tree modeling of forest NPP using site conditions and climate variables across eastern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Y.

    2013-12-01

    As evidence of global warming continue to increase, being able to predict forest response to climate changes, such as expected rise of temperature and precipitation, will be vital for maintaining the sustainability and productivity of forests. To map forest species redistribution by climate change scenario has been successful, however, most species redistribution maps lack mechanistic understanding to explain why trees grow under the novel conditions of chaining climate. Distributional map is only capable of predicting under the equilibrium assumption that the communities would exist following a prolonged period under the new climate. In this context, forest NPP as a surrogate for growth rate, the most important facet that determines stand dynamics, can lead to valid prediction on the transition stage to new vegetation-climate equilibrium as it represents changes in structure of forest reflecting site conditions and climate factors. The objective of this study is to develop forest growth map using regression tree analysis by extracting large-scale non-linear structures from both field-based FIA and remotely sensed MODIS data set. The major issue addressed in this approach is non-linear spatial patterns of forest attributes. Forest inventory data showed complex spatial patterns that reflect environmental states and processes that originate at different spatial scales. At broad scales, non-linear spatial trends in forest attributes and mixture of continuous and discrete types of environmental variables make traditional statistical (multivariate regression) and geostatistical (kriging) models inefficient. It calls into question some traditional underlying assumptions of spatial trends that uncritically accepted in forest data. To solve the controversy surrounding the suitability of forest data, regression tree analysis are performed using Software See5 and Cubist. Four publicly available data sets were obtained: First, field-based Forest Inventory and Analysis (USDA

  17. Smart-DS: Synthetic Models for Advanced, Realistic Testing: Distribution Systems and Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Palmintier, Bryan S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine T [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Elgindy, Tarek [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bugbee, Bruce [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Rossol, Michael N [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnamurthy, Dheepak [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vergara, Claudio [MIT; Domingo, Carlos Mateo [IIT Comillas; Postigo, Fernando [IIT Comillas; de Cuadra, Fernando [IIT Comillas; Gomez, Tomas [IIT Comillas; Duenas, Pablo [MIT; Luke, Max [MIT; Li, Vivian [MIT; Vinoth, Mohan [GE Grid Solutions; Kadankodu, Sree [GE Grid Solutions

    2017-08-09

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in collaboration with Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Universidad Pontificia Comillas (Comillas-IIT, Spain) and GE Grid Solutions, is working on an ARPA-E GRID DATA project, titled Smart-DS, to create: 1) High-quality, realistic, synthetic distribution network models, and 2) Advanced tools for automated scenario generation based on high-resolution weather data and generation growth projections. Through these advancements, the Smart-DS project is envisioned to accelerate the development, testing, and adoption of advanced algorithms, approaches, and technologies for sustainable and resilient electric power systems, especially in the realm of U.S. distribution systems. This talk will present the goals and overall approach of the Smart-DS project, including the process of creating the synthetic distribution datasets using reference network model (RNM) and the comprehensive validation process to ensure network realism, feasibility, and applicability to advanced use cases. The talk will provide demonstrations of early versions of synthetic models, along with the lessons learnt from expert engagements to enhance future iterations. Finally, the scenario generation framework, its development plans, and co-ordination with GRID DATA repository teams to house these datasets for public access will also be discussed.

  18. Analytical model of multi-planetary resonant chains and constraints on migration scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delisle, J.-B.

    2017-09-01

    Resonant chains are groups of planets for which each pair is in resonance, with an orbital period ratio locked at a rational value (2/1, 3/2, etc.). Such chains naturally form as a result of convergent migration of the planets in the proto-planetary disk. In this article, I present an analytical model of resonant chains of any number of planets. Using this model, I show that a system captured in a resonant chain can librate around several possible equilibrium configurations. The probability of capture around each equilibrium depends on how the chain formed, and especially on the order in which the planets have been captured in the chain. Therefore, for an observed resonant chain, knowing around which equilibrium the chain is librating allows for constraints to be put on the formation and migration scenario of the system. I apply this reasoning to the four planets orbiting Kepler-223 in a 3:4:6:8 resonant chain. I show that the system is observed around one of the six equilibria predicted by the analytical model. Using N-body integrations, I show that the most favorable scenario to reproduce the observed configuration is to first capture the two intermediate planets, then the outermost, and finally the innermost.

  19. Individual-tree diameter growth model for managed, even-aged, upland oak stands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald E. Hilt

    1983-01-01

    A distance-independent, individual-tree diameter growth model was developed for managed, even-aged, upland oak stands. The 5-year basal-area growth of individual trees is first modeled as a function of dbh squared for given stands. Parameters from these models are then modeled as a function of mean stand diameter, percent stocking of the stand, and site index. A...

  20. Modeling the potential distribution of Bacillus anthracis under multiple climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy Andrew Joyner

    Full Text Available Anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonotic disease that persists throughout much of the world in livestock, wildlife, and secondarily infects humans. This is true across much of Central Asia, and particularly the Steppe region, including Kazakhstan. This study employed the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP to model the current and future geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Kazakhstan based on the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES climate change scenarios using a 5-variable data set at 55 km(2 and 8 km(2 and a 6-variable BioClim data set at 8 km(2. Future models suggest large areas predicted under current conditions may be reduced by 2050 with the A2 model predicting approximately 14-16% loss across the three spatial resolutions. There was greater variability in the B2 models across scenarios predicting approximately 15% loss at 55 km(2, approximately 34% loss at 8 km(2, and approximately 30% loss with the BioClim variables. Only very small areas of habitat expansion into new areas were predicted by either A2 or B2 in any models. Greater areas of habitat loss are predicted in the southern regions of Kazakhstan by A2 and B2 models, while moderate habitat loss is also predicted in the northern regions by either B2 model at 8 km(2. Anthrax disease control relies mainly on livestock vaccination and proper carcass disposal, both of which require adequate surveillance. In many situations, including that of Kazakhstan, vaccine resources are limited, and understanding the geographic distribution of the organism, in tandem with current data on livestock population dynamics, can aid in properly allocating doses. While speculative, contemplating future changes in livestock distributions and B. anthracis spore promoting environments can be useful for establishing future surveillance priorities. This study may also have broader applications to global public health surveillance relating to other diseases in addition to B

  1. Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas; Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan; Sayler, Kristi L.

    2015-01-01

    Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

  2. Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

    2017-10-17

    Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural

  3. Validation of Tilt Gain under Realistic Path Loss Model and Network Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Huan Cong; Rodriguez, Ignacio; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

    2013-01-01

    Despite being a simple and commonly-applied radio optimization technique, the impact on practical network performance from base station antenna downtilt is not well understood. Most published studies based on empirical path loss models report tilt angles and performance gains that are far higher...... than practical experience suggests. We motivate in this paper, based on a practical LTE scenario, that the discrepancy partly lies in the path loss model, and shows that a more detailed semi-deterministic model leads to both lower gains in terms of SINR, outage probability and downlink throughput...... and lower optimum tilt settings. Furthermore, we show that a simple geometrically based tilt optimization algorithm can outperform other tilt profiles, including the setting applied by the cellular operator in the specific case. In general, the network performance is not highly sensitive to the tilt...

  4. Capacity Model and Constraints Analysis for Integrated Remote Wireless Sensor and Satellite Network in Emergency Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Gengxin; Dong, Feihong; Xie, Zhidong; Bian, Dongming

    2015-11-17

    This article investigates the capacity problem of an integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network (IWSSN) in emergency scenarios. We formulate a general model to evaluate the remote sensor and satellite network capacity. Compared to most existing works for ground networks, the proposed model is time varying and space oriented. To capture the characteristics of a practical network, we sift through major capacity-impacting constraints and analyze the influence of these constraints. Specifically, we combine the geometric satellite orbit model and satellite tool kit (STK) engineering software to quantify the trends of the capacity constraints. Our objective in analyzing these trends is to provide insights and design guidelines for optimizing the integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network schedules. Simulation results validate the theoretical analysis of capacity trends and show the optimization opportunities of the IWSSN.

  5. Polarized heavy baryon production in quark-diquark model considering two different scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moosavi Nejad, S.M. [Yazd University, Faculty of Physics, Yazd (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Institute for Research in Fundamental Sciences (IPM), School of Particles and Accelerators, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Delpasand, M. [Yazd University, Faculty of Physics, Yazd (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2017-09-15

    At sufficiently large transverse momentum, the dominant production mechanism for heavy baryons is actually the fragmentation. In this work, we first study the direct fragmentation of a heavy quark into the unpolarized triply heavy baryons in the leading order of perturbative QCD. In a completely different approach, we also analyze the two-stage fragmentation of a heavy quark into a scalar diquark followed by the fragmentation of such a scalar diquark into a triply heavy baryon: quark-diquark model of baryons. The results of this model are in acceptable agreement with those obtained through a full perturbative regime. Relying on the quark-diquark model and considering two different scenarios we determine the spin-dependent fragmentation functions of polarized heavy baryons in such a way that a vector or a pseudoscalar heavy diquark is an intermediate particle between the initial heavy quark and the final state baryon. (orig.)

  6. Capacity Model and Constraints Analysis for Integrated Remote Wireless Sensor and Satellite Network in Emergency Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the capacity problem of an integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network (IWSSN in emergency scenarios. We formulate a general model to evaluate the remote sensor and satellite network capacity. Compared to most existing works for ground networks, the proposed model is time varying and space oriented. To capture the characteristics of a practical network, we sift through major capacity-impacting constraints and analyze the influence of these constraints. Specifically, we combine the geometric satellite orbit model and satellite tool kit (STK engineering software to quantify the trends of the capacity constraints. Our objective in analyzing these trends is to provide insights and design guidelines for optimizing the integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network schedules. Simulation results validate the theoretical analysis of capacity trends and show the optimization opportunities of the IWSSN.

  7. Modeled PM2.5 removal by trees in ten US cities and associated health effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. Nowak; Satoshi Hirabayashi; Allison Bodine; Robert. Hoehn

    2013-01-01

    Urban particulate air pollution is a serious health issue. Trees within cities can remove fine particles from the atmosphere and consequently improve air quality and human health. Tree effects on PM2.5 concentrations and human health are modeled for 10 U.S. cities. The total amount of PM2.5 removed annually by...

  8. Detecting treatment-subgroup interactions in clustered data with generalized linear mixed-effects model trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fokkema, M; Smits, N; Zeileis, A; Hothorn, T; Kelderman, H

    2017-10-25

    Identification of subgroups of patients for whom treatment A is more effective than treatment B, and vice versa, is of key importance to the development of personalized medicine. Tree-based algorithms are helpful tools for the detection of such interactions, but none of the available algorithms allow for taking into account clustered or nested dataset structures, which are particularly common in psychological research. Therefore, we propose the generalized linear mixed-effects model tree (GLMM tree) algorithm, which allows for the detection of treatment-subgroup interactions, while accounting for the clustered structure of a dataset. The algorithm uses model-based recursive partitioning to detect treatment-subgroup interactions, and a GLMM to estimate the random-effects parameters. In a simulation study, GLMM trees show higher accuracy in recovering treatment-subgroup interactions, higher predictive accuracy, and lower type II error rates than linear-model-based recursive partitioning and mixed-effects regression trees. Also, GLMM trees show somewhat higher predictive accuracy than linear mixed-effects models with pre-specified interaction effects, on average. We illustrate the application of GLMM trees on an individual patient-level data meta-analysis on treatments for depression. We conclude that GLMM trees are a promising exploratory tool for the detection of treatment-subgroup interactions in clustered datasets.

  9. The critical density for the frog model is the degree of the tree

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Tobias; Junge, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    The frog model on the rooted $d$-ary tree changes from transient to recurrent as the number of frogs per site is increased. We prove that the location of this transition is on the same order as the degree of the tree.

  10. Relating FIA data to habitat classifications via tree-based models of canopy cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark D. Nelson; Brian G. Tavernia; Chris Toney; Brian F. Walters

    2012-01-01

    Wildlife species-habitat matrices are used to relate lists of species with abundance of their habitats. The Forest Inventory and Analysis Program provides data on forest composition and structure, but these attributes may not correspond directly with definitions of wildlife habitats. We used FIA tree data and tree crown diameter models to estimate canopy cover, from...

  11. Estimates of live-tree carbon stores in the Pacific Northwest are sensitive to model selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susanna L. Melson; Mark E. Harmon; Jeremy S. Fried; James B. Domingo

    2011-01-01

    Estimates of live-tree carbon stores are influenced by numerous uncertainties. One of them is model-selection uncertainty: one has to choose among multiple empirical equations and conversion factors that can be plausibly justified as locally applicable to calculate the carbon store from inventory measurements such as tree height and diameter at breast height (DBH)....

  12. A structurally based analytic model for estimation of biomass and fuel loads of woodland trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin J. Tausch

    2009-01-01

    Allometric/structural relationships in tree crowns are a consequence of the physical, physiological, and fluid conduction processes of trees, which control the distribution, efficient support, and growth of foliage in the crown. The structural consequences of these processes are used to develop an analytic model based on the concept of branch orders. A set of...

  13. Modeling hourly electricity dynamics for policy making in long-term scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pina, Andre, E-mail: andre.pina@ist.utl.pt [Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - IN, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal); MIT-Portugal Program, Sustainable Energy Systems Focus Area (Portugal); Silva, Carlos [IDMEC, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon (Portugal); MIT-Portugal Program, Sustainable Energy Systems Focus Area (Portugal); Ferrao, Paulo [Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - IN, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal); MIT-Portugal Program, Sustainable Energy Systems Focus Area (Portugal)

    2011-09-15

    Energy policies are often related to the global effort in reducing greenhouse gas emissions through increased use of renewable energies in electricity production. The impact of these policies is usually calculated by energy planning tools. However, the modeling methodologies most currently used are not adequate to simulate long-term scenarios while considering the hourly dynamics of supply and demand. This paper presents an extension of the TIMES energy planning tool for investment decisions in electricity production that considers seasonal, daily and hourly supply and demand dynamics. The inclusion of these dynamics enables the model to produce more accurate results in what concerns the impact of introducing energy efficiency policies and the increased use of renewable energies. The model was validated in Sao Miguel (Azores, Portugal) for the years 2006-2009, where a comparison with real data showed that the model can simulate the supply and demand dynamics. Further, the long-term analysis shows that the inclusion of these dynamics contributes to a better assessment of the renewable energy potential, suggests the postponement of investments in new generation capacity, and demonstrates that using fine time resolution modeling is very valuable for the design of effective policy measures under high renewable penetration energy systems. - Highlights: > We develop a high temporal resolution TIMES model for long-term policy analysis. > The model is capable of considering hourly electricity supply and demand dynamics. > Lower resolution models can overestimate the optimum amount of renewable energies. > Modeling hourly dynamics of policies can help avoid non cost-effective investments.

  14. Modeling Electricity Sector Vulnerabilities and Costs Associated with Water Temperatures Under Scenarios of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Brinkman, G.; Ibanez, E.; Newmark, R. L.

    2014-12-01

    The reliability of the power sector is highly vulnerable to variability in the availability and temperature of water resources, including those that might result from potential climatic changes or from competition from other users. In the past decade, power plants throughout the United States have had to shut down or curtail generation due to a lack of available water or from elevated water temperatures. These disruptions in power plant performance can have negative impacts on energy security and can be costly to address. Analysis of water-related vulnerabilities requires modeling capabilities with high spatial and temporal resolution. This research provides an innovative approach to energy-water modeling by evaluating the costs and reliability of a power sector region under policy and climate change scenarios that affect water resource availability and temperatures. This work utilizes results from a spatially distributed river water temperature model coupled with a thermoelectric power plant model to provide inputs into an electricity production cost model that operates on a high spatial and temporal resolution. The regional transmission organization ISO-New England, which includes six New England states and over 32 Gigawatts of power capacity, is utilized as a case study. Hydrological data and power plant operations are analyzed over an eleven year period from 2000-2010 under four scenarios that include climate impacts on water resources and air temperatures as well as strict interpretations of regulations that can affect power plant operations due to elevated water temperatures. Results of these model linkages show how the power sector's reliability and economic performance can be affected by changes in water temperatures and water availability. The effective reliability and capacity value of thermal electric generators are quantified and discussed in the context of current as well as potential future water resource characteristics.

  15. Modelling soil organic carbon stocks along topographic transects under climate change scenarios using CarboSOIL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotb Abd-Elmabod, Sameh; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Jordán, Antonio; Anaya-Romero, María; de la Rosa, Diego

    2014-05-01

    CarboSOIL is a land evaluation model for soil organic carbon (SOC) accounting under global change scenarios (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2013a; 2013b) and is a new component of the MicroLEIS Decision Support System. MicroLEIS is a tool for decision-makers dealing with specific agro-ecological problems as, for example, soil contamination risks (Abd-Elmabod et al., 2010; Abd-Elmabod et al., 2012)which has been designed as a knowledge-based approach incorporating a set of interlinked data bases. Global change and land use changes in recent decades have caused relevant impacts in vegetation carbon stocks (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2011) and soil organic carbon stocks, especially in sensible areas as the Mediterranean region (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2012a; 2012b). This study aims to investigate the influence of topography, climate, land use and soil factors on SOC stocks by the application of CarboSOIL in a representative area of the Mediterranean region (Seville, Spain). Two topographic transects (S-N and W-E oriented) were considered, including 63 points separated 4 km each. These points are associated to 41 soil profiles extracted from the SDBm soil data base (De la Rosa et al., 2001) and climatic information (average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature and average rainfall per month) extracted from raster data bases (Andalusian Environmental Information Network, REDIAM). CarboSOIL has been applied along topographic transects at different soil depths and under different climate change scenarios. Climate scenarios have been calculated according to the global climate model (CNRMCM3) by extracting spatial climate data under IPCC A1B scenario for the current period (average data from 1960-2000), 2040, 2070 and 2100. In the current scenario, results show that the highest SOC stock values located on Typic Haploxeralfs under olive groves for soil sections 0-25 cm and for 25-50 cm, but the highest values were determined on fruit-cropped Rendolic Xerothent in the 50-75cm

  16. Scenario modelling of drainage impact of a groundwater-dependent heath ecosystem, Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batelaan, Okke; El-Rawy, Mustafa; Schneidewind, Uwe; De Becker, Piet

    2013-04-01

    Groundwater dependent heathlands are valuable ecosystems in need of protection (Habitats Directive, 92/43/EEC). Over the last 15 years the groundwater table below a military area near Houthalen-Helchteren in the North-East of Belgium has been lowered by a network of drainage ditches to improve on-site military operability and to intensify nearby agriculture. Dewatering has lead to a gradual deterioration of the local NATURA 2000 ecosystem that includes wet and dry heathlands, transition mires and depression bogs. The studied area is located on the Campine Plateau about 70-80 m above sea level and covers an area of roughly 2200 ha. The local unconfined aquifer has a thickness of about 200 m and consists of several layers of Quaternary and Tertiary sands and fine gravels and occasional local clay lenses. To analyze the impact of the presence of the system of drainage ditches on the groundwater table, percentage of time of open water in the area, and occurrence of valuable ecosystems a multi-layer transient (1990-2010) groundwater model and coupled simple vegetation prediction model has been set-up. The MODFLOW 2005 groundwater model combined geological and hydrogeological data from regional groundwater models with local time-series of water level observations, groundwater abstraction data and monthly recharge estimates from the WetSpass model. Satisfying model calibration was achieved using UCODE-2005 and the Double Constrained Method. Simulated time series maps of the groundwater table were used to calculated for depressions the percentage of time that open water was present. The time series were also summarized in indicator maps as 'average groundwater level', 'average spring groundwater level', 'average highest groundwater level' and 'average lowest groundwater level', the last one was used to drive a decision rule for the occurrence 4 different habitat types. 19 scenarios considering varying options for adjustment of the drainage network were simulated and

  17. Heterogeneous world model and collaborative scenarios of transition to globally sustainable nuclear energy systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuznetsov Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The International Atomic Energy Agency's International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO is to help ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to meeting global energy needs of the 21st century in a sustainable manner. The INPRO task titled “Global scenarios” is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios that lead to a global vision of sustainable nuclear energy in the 21st century. Results of multiple studies show that the criteria for developing sustainable nuclear energy cannot be met without innovations in reactor and nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Combining different reactor types and associated fuel chains creates a multiplicity of nuclear energy system arrangements potentially contributing to global sustainability of nuclear energy. In this, cooperation among countries having different policy regarding fuel cycle back end would be essential to bring sustainability benefits from innovations in technology to all interested users. INPRO has developed heterogeneous global model to capture countries’ different policies regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle in regional and global scenarios of nuclear energy evolution and applied in a number of studies performed by participants of the project. This paper will highlight the model and major conclusions obtained in the studies.

  18. Using Game Theoretic Models to Predict Pilot Behavior in NextGen Merging and Landing Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yildiz, Yildiray; Lee, Ritchie; Brat, Guillaume

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we present an implementation of the Semi Network-Form Game framework to predict pilot behavior in a merging and landing scenario. In this scenario, two aircraft are approaching to a freeze horizon with approximately equal distance when they become aware of each other via an ADS-B communication link that will be available in NextGen airspace. Both pilots want to gain advantage over the other by entering the freeze horizon earlier and obtain the first place in landing. They re-adjust their speed accordingly. However, they cannot simply increase their speed to the maximum allowable values since they are concerned with safety, separation distance, effort, possibility of being vectored-off from landing and possibility of violating speed constraints. We present how to model these concerns and the rest of the system using semi network-from game framework. Using this framework, based on certain assumptions on pilot utility functions and on system configuration, we provide estimates of pilot behavior and overall system evolution in time. We also discuss the possible employment of this modeling tool for airspace design optimization. To support this discussion, we provide a case where we investigate the effect of increasing the merging point speed limit on the commanded speed distribution and on the percentage of vectored aircraft.

  19. Individual tree diameter increment model for managed even-aged stands of ponderosa pine throughout the western United States using a multilevel linear mixed effects model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabian C.C. Uzoh; William W. Oliver

    2008-01-01

    A diameter increment model is developed and evaluated for individual trees of ponderosa pine throughout the species range in the United States using a multilevel linear mixed model. Stochastic variability is broken down among period, locale, plot, tree and within-tree components. Covariates acting at tree and stand level, as breast height diameter, density, site index...

  20. Predictive Modeling of Rice Yellow Stem Borer Population Dynamics under Climate Change Scenarios in Indramayu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhayati, E.; Koesmaryono, Y.; Impron

    2017-03-01

    Rice Yellow Stem Borer (YSB) is one of the major insect pests in rice plants that has high attack intensity in rice production center areas, especially in West Java. This pest is consider as holometabola insects that causes rice damage in the vegetative phase (deadheart) as well as generative phase (whitehead). Climatic factor is one of the environmental factors influence the pattern of dynamics population. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive modeling of YSB pest dynamics population under climate change scenarios (2016-2035 period) using Dymex Model in Indramayu area, West Java. YSB modeling required two main components, namely climate parameters and YSB development lower threshold of temperature (To) to describe YSB life cycle in every phase. Calibration and validation test of models showed the coefficient of determination (R2) between the predicted results and observations of the study area were 0.74 and 0.88 respectively, which was able to illustrate the development, mortality, transfer of individuals from one stage to the next life also fecundity and YSB reproduction. On baseline climate condition, there was a tendency of population abundance peak (outbreak) occured when a change of rainfall intensity in the rainy season transition to dry season or the opposite conditions was happen. In both of application of climate change scenarios, the model outputs were generated well and able to predict the pattern of YSB population dynamics with a the increasing trend of specific population numbers, generation numbers per season and also shifting pattern of populations abundance peak in the future climatic conditions. These results can be adopted as a tool to predict outbreak and to give early warning to control YSB pest more effectively.

  1. Modelling Mediterranean agro-ecosystems by including agricultural trees in the LPJmL model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fader, M.; von Bloh, W.; Shi, S.; Bondeau, A.; Cramer, W.

    2015-11-01

    In the Mediterranean region, climate and land use change are expected to impact on natural and agricultural ecosystems by warming, reduced rainfall, direct degradation of ecosystems and biodiversity loss. Human population growth and socioeconomic changes, notably on the eastern and southern shores, will require increases in food production and put additional pressure on agro-ecosystems and water resources. Coping with these challenges requires informed decisions that, in turn, require assessments by means of a comprehensive agro-ecosystem and hydrological model. This study presents the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants, mainly perennial crops, in an agro-ecosystem model (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land - LPJmL): nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses. The model was successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. With the development presented in this study, LPJmL is now able to simulate in good detail and mechanistically the functioning of Mediterranean agriculture with a comprehensive representation of ecophysiological processes for all vegetation types (natural and agricultural) and in a consistent framework that produces estimates of carbon, agricultural and hydrological variables for the entire Mediterranean basin. This development paves the way for further model extensions aiming at the representation of alternative agro-ecosystems (e.g. agroforestry), and opens the door for a large number of applications in the Mediterranean region, for example assessments of the consequences of land use transitions, the influence of management practices and climate change impacts.

  2. SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, M.

    2015-03-23

    This presentation provides an overview of the Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model, describes the methodology for developing scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure development, outlines an example "Hydrogen Success" scenario, and discusses detailed scenario metrics for a particular case study region, the Northeast Corridor.

  3. Modelling soil organic carbon stocks in global change scenarios: a CarboSOIL application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Rojas, M.; Jordán, A.; Zavala, L. M.; González-Peñaloza, F. A.; De la Rosa, D.; Pino-Mejias, R.; Anaya-Romero, M.

    2013-12-01

    Global climate change, as a consequence of the increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration, may significantly affect both soil organic C storage and soil capacity for C sequestration. CarboSOIL is an empirical model based on regression techniques and developed as a geographical information system tool to predict soil organic carbon (SOC) contents at different depths. This model is a new component of the agro-ecological decision support system for land evaluation MicroLEIS, which assists decision-makers in facing specific agro-ecological problems, particularly in Mediterranean regions. In this study, the CarboSOIL model was used to study the effects of climate change on SOC dynamics in a Mediterranean region (Andalusia, S Spain). Different downscaled climate models were applied based on BCCR-BCM2, CNRMCM3, and ECHAM5 and driven by SRES scenarios (A1B, A2 and B2). Output data were linked to spatial data sets (soil and land use) to quantify SOC stocks. The CarboSOIL model has proved its ability to predict the short-, medium- and long-term trends (2040s, 2070s and 2100s) of SOC dynamics and sequestration under projected future scenarios of climate change. Results have shown an overall trend towards decreasing of SOC stocks in the upper soil sections (0-25 cm and 25-50 cm) for most soil types and land uses, but predicted SOC stocks tend to increase in the deeper soil section (0-75 cm). Soil types as Arenosols, Planosols and Solonchaks and land uses as "permanent crops" and "open spaces with little or no vegetation" would be severely affected by climate change with large decreases of SOC stocks, in particular under the medium-high emission scenario A2 by 2100. The information developed in this study might support decision-making in land management and climate adaptation strategies in Mediterranean regions, and the methodology could be applied to other Mediterranean areas with available soil, land use and climate data.

  4. Tree level hydrodynamic approach for resolving aboveground water storage and stomatal conductance and modeling the effects of tree hydraulic strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirfenderesgi, Golnazalsadat; Bohrer, Gil; Matheny, Ashley M.; Fatichi, Simone; de Moraes Frasson, Renato Prata; Schäfer, Karina V. R.

    2016-07-01

    The finite difference ecosystem-scale tree crown hydrodynamics model version 2 (FETCH2) is a tree-scale hydrodynamic model of transpiration. The FETCH2 model employs a finite difference numerical methodology and a simplified single-beam conduit system to explicitly resolve xylem water potentials throughout the vertical extent of a tree. Empirical equations relate water potential within the stem to stomatal conductance of the leaves at each height throughout the crown. While highly simplified, this approach brings additional realism to the simulation of transpiration by linking stomatal responses to stem water potential rather than directly to soil moisture, as is currently the case in the majority of land surface models. FETCH2 accounts for plant hydraulic traits, such as the degree of anisohydric/isohydric response of stomata, maximal xylem conductivity, vertical distribution of leaf area, and maximal and minimal xylem water content. We used FETCH2 along with sap flow and eddy covariance data sets collected from a mixed plot of two genera (oak/pine) in Silas Little Experimental Forest, NJ, USA, to conduct an analysis of the intergeneric variation of hydraulic strategies and their effects on diurnal and seasonal transpiration dynamics. We define these strategies through the parameters that describe the genus level transpiration and xylem conductivity responses to changes in stem water potential. Our evaluation revealed that FETCH2 considerably improved the simulation of ecosystem transpiration and latent heat flux in comparison to more conventional models. A virtual experiment showed that the model was able to capture the effect of hydraulic strategies such as isohydric/anisohydric behavior on stomatal conductance under different soil-water availability conditions.

  5. Use of Danish Heat Atlas and energy system models for exploring renewable energy scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrovic, Stefan; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard

    2013-01-01

    networks in relation with significant heat saving measures that are capital intensive infrastructure investments require highly detailed decision - support tools. The Heat Atlas for Denmark provides a highly detailed database and includes heat demand and possible heat savings for about 2.5 million...... buildings with associated costs included. Energy systems modelling tools that incorporate economic, environmental, energy and engineering analysis of future energy systems are considered crucial for quantitative assessment of transitional scenarios towards future milestones, such as (i) EU 2020 goals...... of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing share of renewable energy and improving energy efficiency and (ii) Denmark’s 2050 goals of covering entire energy supply by renewable energy. Optimization and simulation energy system models are currently used in Denmark. The present paper tends to provide...

  6. Characterizing a benchmark scenario for heavy Higgs boson searches in the Georgi-Machacek model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Heather E.; Reimer, Mark B.

    2017-11-01

    The Georgi-Machacek model is used to motivate and interpret LHC searches for doubly- and singly-charged Higgs bosons decaying into vector boson pairs. In this paper we study the constraints on and phenomenology of the "H5plane" benchmark scenario in the Georgi-Machacek model, which has been proposed for use in these searches. We show that the entire H5plane benchmark is compatible with the LHC measurements of the 125 GeV Higgs boson couplings. We also point out that, over much of the H5plane benchmark, the line shapes of the two C P -even neutral heavy Higgs bosons H and H50 will overlap and interfere when produced in vector boson fusion with decays to W+W- or Z Z . Finally we compute the decay branching ratios of the additional heavy Higgs bosons within the H5plane benchmark to facilitate the development of search strategies for these additional particles.

  7. Sensitivity of the active fracture model parameter to fracture network orientation and injection scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Başağaoğlu, Hakan; Succi, Sauro; Manepally, Chandrika; Fedors, Randall; Wyrick, Danielle Y.

    2009-09-01

    Active fractures refer to the portions of unsaturated, connected fractures that actively conduct water. The active fracture model parameter accounts for the reduction in the number of fractures carrying water and in the fracture-matrix interface area in field-scale simulations of flow and transport in unsaturated fractured rocks. One example includes the numerical analyses of the fault test results at the Yucca Mountain site, Nevada (USA). In such applications, the active fracture model parameter is commonly used as a calibration parameter without relating it to fracture network orientations and infiltration rates. A two-dimensional, multiphase lattice-Boltzmann model was used in this study to investigate the sensitivity of the active fracture model parameter to fracture network orientation and injection scenarios for an unsaturated, variable dipping, and geometrically simple fracture network. The active fracture model parameter differed by as much as 0.11-0.44 when the effects of fracture network orientation, injection rate, and injection mode were included in the simulations. Hence, the numerical results suggest that the sensitivity of the active fracture model parameter to fracture network orientation, injection rates, and injection modes should be explored at the field-scale to strengthen the technical basis and range of applicability of the active fracture model.

  8. Phylogeography and palaeodistribution modelling of Nassauvia subgenus Strongyloma (Asteraceae): exploring phylogeographical scenarios in the Patagonian steppe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicola, Marcela V; Sede, Silvana M; Pozner, Raúl; Johnson, Leigh A

    2014-11-01

    The Patagonian steppe is an immense, cold, arid region, yet phylogeographically understudied. Nassauvia subgen. Strongyloma is a characteristic element of the steppe, exhibiting a continuum of morphological variation. This taxon provides a relevant phylogeographical model not only to understand how past environmental changes shaped the genetic structure of its populations, but also to explore phylogeographical scenarios at the large geographical scale of the Patagonian steppe. Here, we (1) assess demographic processes and historical events that shaped current geographic patterns of haplotypic diversity; (2) analyze hypotheses of isolation in refugia, fragmentation of populations, and/or colonization of available areas during Pleistocene glaciations; and (3) model extant and palaeoclimatic distributions to support inferred phylogeographical patterns. Chloroplast intergenic spacers, rpl32-trnL and trnQ-5'rps16, were sequenced for 372 individuals from 63 populations. Nested clade analysis, analyses of molecular variance, and neutrality tests were performed to assess genetic structure and range expansion. The present potential distribution was modelled and projected onto a last glacial maximum (LGM) model. Of 41 haplotypes observed, ten were shared among populations associated with different morphological variants. Populations with highest haplotype diversity and private haplotypes were found in central-western and south-eastern Patagonia, consistent with long-term persistence in refugia during Pleistocene. Palaeomodelling suggested a shift toward the palaeoseashore during LGM; new available areas over the exposed Atlantic submarine platform were colonized during glaciations with postglacial retraction of populations. A scenario of fragmentation and posterior range expansion may explain the observed patterns in the center of the steppe, which is supported by palaeomodelling. Northern Patagonian populations were isolated from southern populations by the Chubut and the

  9. Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Chen

    Full Text Available This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU, energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI, low carbon scenario (LC and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC. The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

  10. Construction and Evaluation of Scenarios as a Learning Strategy through Modelling-Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Luis Peñaloza Figueroa

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available From a systemic perspective and in the context of an increasing generalization in the use of new technologies and the change in the educational paradigm -which emphasizes guided and autonomous learning-, the learning strategy should be routed to join logical reasoning and instrumental skills (software. The inclusion of new computing and communication resources to the learning process turns them into teaching tools, which makes it possible to organize the teaching and learning process in a different way. The design of these new scenarios of study has important implications to the way information is processed, to the different levels of learning (descriptive, explanatory or analytical ones and to the way knowledge is acquired and evaluated. In addition, that design takes into account the greater student-content, student-student and student-teacher interactivities, always emphasizing guided independent learning. Thus, the construction, analysis and evaluation of scenarios through models and simulation are the strategy that best suits the current learning style followed by students.

  11. Water-Constrained Electric Sector Capacity Expansion Modeling Under Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.; Corsi, F.; Prousevitch, A.; Rangwala, I.

    2015-12-01

    Over 80% of U.S. electricity generation uses a thermoelectric process, which requires significant quantities of water for power plant cooling. This water requirement exposes the electric sector to vulnerabilities related to shifts in water availability driven by climate change as well as reductions in power plant efficiencies. Electricity demand is also sensitive to climate change, which in most of the United States leads to warming temperatures that increase total cooling-degree days. The resulting demand increase is typically greater for peak demand periods. This work examines the sensitivity of the development and operations of the U.S. electric sector to the impacts of climate change using an electric sector capacity expansion model that endogenously represents seasonal and local water resource availability as well as climate impacts on water availability, electricity demand, and electricity system performance. Capacity expansion portfolios and water resource implications from 2010 to 2050 are shown at high spatial resolution under a series of climate scenarios. Results demonstrate the importance of water availability for future electric sector capacity planning and operations, especially under more extreme hotter and drier climate scenarios. In addition, region-specific changes in electricity demand and water resources require region-specific responses that depend on local renewable resource availability and electricity market conditions. Climate change and the associated impacts on water availability and temperature can affect the types of power plants that are built, their location, and their impact on regional water resources.

  12. A new scenario of hypothalamic organization: rationale of new hypotheses introduced in the updated prosomeric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puelles, Luis; Rubenstein, John L. R.

    2015-01-01

    In this essay, we aim to explore in depth the new concept of the hypothalamus that was presented in the updated prosomeric model (Puelles et al., 2012b; Allen Developing Mouse Brain Atlas). Initial sections deal with the antecedents of prosomeric ideas represented by the extensive literature centered on the alternative columnar model of Herrick (1910), Kuhlenbeck (1973) and Swanson (1992, 2003); a detailed critique explores why the columnar model is not helpful in the search for causal developmental explanations. In contrast, the emerging prosomeric scenario visibly includes many possibilities to propose causal explanations of hypothalamic structure relative to both anteroposterior and dorsoventral patterning mechanisms, and insures the possibility to compare hypothalamic histogenesis with that of more caudal parts of the brain. Next the four major changes introduced in the organization of the hypothalamus on occasion of the updated model are presented, and our rationale for these changes is explored in detail. It is hoped that this example of morphological theoretical analysis may be useful for readers interested in brain models, or in understanding why models may need to change in the quest for higher consistency. PMID:25852489

  13. A see-saw scenario of an $A_4$ flavour symmetric standard model

    CERN Document Server

    Dinh, Dinh Nguyen; Văn, Phi Quang; Vân, Nguyen Thi Hông

    2016-01-01

    A see-saw scenario for an $A_4$ flavour symmetric standard model is presented. As before, the see-saw mechanism can be realized in several models of different types depending on different ways of neutrino mass generation corresponding to the introduction of new fields with different symmetry structures. In the present paper, a general desription of all these see-saw types is made with a more detailed investigation on type-I models. As within the original see-saw mechanism, the symmetry structure of the standard model fields decides the number and the symmetry structure of the new fields. In a model considered here, the scalar sector consists of three standard-model-Higgs-like iso-doublets ($SU_L(2)$-doublets) forming an $A_4$ triplet. The latter is a superposition of three mass-eigen states, one of which could be identified with the recently discovered Higgs boson. A possible relation to the still-deliberated 750 GeV diphoton resonance at the 13 TeV LHC collisions is also discussed. In the lepton sector, the ...

  14. Generating interest-rate scenarios for fixed-income portfolio ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model includes four latent factors and three observable macroeconomic variables (capacity utilisation, inflation and the repo rate). The goal is to capture the dynamic interactions between the macroeconomy and the yield curve in such a way that the resulting model can be used to generate interest-rate scenario trees ...

  15. Efficient multi-scenario Model Predictive Control for water resources management with ensemble streamflow forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Xin; Negenborn, Rudy R.; van Overloop, Peter-Jules; María Maestre, José; Sadowska, Anna; van de Giesen, Nick

    2017-11-01

    Model Predictive Control (MPC) is one of the most advanced real-time control techniques that has been widely applied to Water Resources Management (WRM). MPC can manage the water system in a holistic manner and has a flexible structure to incorporate specific elements, such as setpoints and constraints. Therefore, MPC has shown its versatile performance in many branches of WRM. Nonetheless, with the in-depth understanding of stochastic hydrology in recent studies, MPC also faces the challenge of how to cope with hydrological uncertainty in its decision-making process. A possible way to embed the uncertainty is to generate an Ensemble Forecast (EF) of hydrological variables, rather than a deterministic one. The combination of MPC and EF results in a more comprehensive approach: Multi-scenario MPC (MS-MPC). In this study, we will first assess the model performance of MS-MPC, considering an ensemble streamflow forecast. Noticeably, the computational inefficiency may be a critical obstacle that hinders applicability of MS-MPC. In fact, with more scenarios taken into account, the computational burden of solving an optimization problem in MS-MPC accordingly increases. To deal with this challenge, we propose the Adaptive Control Resolution (ACR) approach as a computationally efficient scheme to practically reduce the number of control variables in MS-MPC. In brief, the ACR approach uses a mixed-resolution control time step from the near future to the distant future. The ACR-MPC approach is tested on a real-world case study: an integrated flood control and navigation problem in the North Sea Canal of the Netherlands. Such an approach reduces the computation time by 18% and up in our case study. At the same time, the model performance of ACR-MPC remains close to that of conventional MPC.

  16. MODELLING OF SCENARIOS OF THE CRISIS PHENOMENA TRANSFER AMONG FINANCIAL MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inna Strelchenko

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The phenomenon of crisis transference among financial markets in different countries is especially evident during the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. Abnormal imbalances emerged in the market of secondary financial instruments in the United States in the second half of 2006 and quickly spread to the financial markets of most countries of the world. However, the rate of fall of the main macroeconomic indicators, the duration of the latent period (the time between the date of the beginning of the financial crisis in the source country and date of the recorded fall in GDP of the country that is subjected to “contagion” (Strelchenko, 2016, and recovery period are substantially different. To generate an effective economic policy actually, there is a task of determining the possible scenarios of transferring crisis. The research subject is a process of transfer of the crisis phenomena among the financial markets of countries with different levels of economic development. Methodology. The paper presents the results of a study on the differentiation of the financial markets reactions to the crisis transfer. To build the corresponding classification model, self-organization Kohonen neural networks are used. The purpose of this work is to build a neural network model for clustering economies according to the response to external financial shocks. This model allows predicting the scenarios of transferring crisis among financial markets. Conclusion. As a result of the study, there is built a neural network with the architecture of the Kohonen map. The neural network has one hidden layer consisting of six neurons and has a hexagonal structure. Six clusters describe six possible scenarios of the economy dynamics under the impact of the transfer of crises. Cluster number one and two unite countries characterized by a short period of economic recovery and return of the main macroeconomic indicators to the precrisis levels. A longer recovery period and

  17. Dynamical rearrangement of super-Earths during disk dispersal. II. Assessment of the magnetospheric rebound model for planet formation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Beibei; Ormel, Chris W.

    2017-10-01

    Context. The Kepler mission has provided a large sample to statistically analyze the orbital properties of the super-Earth planet population. We hypothesize that these planets formed early and consider the problem of matching planet formation theory to the current orbital configurations. Two scenarios - disk migration and in-situ formation - have been proposed to explain the origin of these planets. In the migration scenario, planets migrate inward to the inner disk due to planet-disk interaction, whereas in the in-situ scenario planets assemble locally. Therefore, planets formed by migration are expected to end up in resonances, whereas those formed in-situ are expected to stay in short period ratios and in non-resonant orbits. Both predictions are at odds with observations. Aims: We investigate whether a preferred formation scenario can be identified through a comparison between the magnetospheric rebound model and the Kepler data. Methods: We conduct N-body simulations of two-planet systems during the disk dispersal phase. Several distributions of model parameters are considered and we make a statistical comparison between the simulations and the Kepler observations. Results: Comparing the migration and the in-situ scenarios, we find that magnetospheric rebound tends to erase the difference in the orbital configuration that was initially presented. After disk dispersal, not all planets are in resonance in the migration scenario, whereas planets do not remain in compact configurations in the in-situ scenario. In both scenarios, the orbits of planets increase with the cavity expansion, and their period ratios have a wider distribution. Conclusions: From a statistical perspective, the magnetospheric rebound model reproduces several observed properties of Kepler planets, such as the fact that a significant number of planets are not in resonances and planet pairs can end up at large period ratios. The disparity in orbital configuration between the two formation

  18. Coupling a glacier evolution model and a hydrological model to simulate future runoff scenarios in the Oetztal Alps, Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoll, Elena; Oesterle, Felix; Hanzer, Florian; Nemec, Johanna; Berlin, Stefan; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Strasser, Ulrich; Achleitner, Stefan; Förster, Kristian

    2017-04-01

    Fluctuations of glacier and snow runoff play a key role in water management of alpine catchments. Consequently, the catchment water balance is strongly influenced by the variability of the seasonal snow cover and the glacier melt. The huge water storages enable a shift of the hydrological response of glaciers across time scales, leading to response times in the range of decades. In the future, an initial increase of water availability connected to higher temperatures and respective melt rates is expected to turn into a decrease as the glaciers dwindle. One key question is to predict the "moment of peak discharge" when water availability will start to decrease as a consequence of the reduction of glacierized areas. To assess the influence of a warming climate on runoff regimes of glaciated catchments, we couple a simple glacier evolution model (GEM), based on a statistical approach, with a semi-distributed hydrological model (HQsim). Climate scenarios are taken from downscaled EURO-CORDEX data for the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. The results indicate that the impact of the glaciers on runoff regimes will very likely change towards the second half of the 21st century. Given the scenarios in which most glaciers will attain their minimum extent and sustain only at high elevation levels, the resulting runoff regime is dominated by precipitation and seasonal snow cover, since the "moment of peak discharge" is assumed to occur in the first half of the 21st century.

  19. Effects of input uncertainty and variability on the modelled environmental fate of organic pollutants under global climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Deguo; MacLeod, Matthew; Li, Zhe; Cousins, Ian T

    2013-11-01

    Global climate change (GCC) is expected to influence the fate, exposure and risks of organic pollutants to wildlife and humans. Multimedia chemical fate models have been previously applied to estimate how GCC affects pollutant concentrations in the environment and biota, but previous studies have not addressed how uncertainty and variability of model inputs affect model predictions. Here, we assess the influence of climate variability and chemical property uncertainty on future projections of environmental fate of six polychlorinated biphenyl congeners under different GCC scenarios using a spreadsheet version of the ChemCAN model and the Crystal Ball® software. Regardless of emission mode, results demonstrate: (i) uncertainty in degradation half-lives dominates the variance of modelled absolute levels of PCB congeners under GCC scenarios; (ii) when the ratios of predictions under GCC to predictions under present day climate are modelled, climate variability dominates the variance of modelled ratios; and (iii) the ratios also indicate a maximum of about a factor of 2 change in the long-term average environmental concentrations due to GCC that is forecasted between present conditions and the period between 2080 and 2099. We conclude that chemical property uncertainty does not preclude assessing relative changes in a GCC scenario compared to a present-day scenario if variance in model outputs due to chemical properties and degradation half-lives can be assumed to cancel out in the two scenarios. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Numerical 3D modelling of oil dispersion in the sea due to different accident scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guandalini, Roberto; Agate, Giordano; Moia, Fabio

    2017-04-01

    The purpose of the study has been the development of a methodology, based on a numerical 3D approach, for the analysis of oil dispersion in the sea, in order to simulate with a high level of accuracy the dynamic behavior of the oil plume and its displacement in the environment. As a matter of fact, the numerical simulation is the only approach currently able to analyse in detail possible accident scenarios, even with an high degree of complexity, of different type and intensity, allowing to follow their evolution both in time and space, and to evaluate the effectiveness of suggested prevention or recovery actions. The software for these calculations is therefore an essential tool in order to simulate the impact effects in the short, medium and long period, able to account for the complexity of the sea system involved in the dispersion process and its dependency on the meteorological, marine and morphological local conditions. This software, generally based on fluid dynamic 3D simulators and modellers, is therefore extremely specialized and requires expertise for an appropriate usage, but at the same time it allows detailed scenario analyses and design verifications. It takes into account different parameters as the sea current field and its turbulence, the wind acting on the sea surface, the salinity and temperature gradients, the local coastal morphology, the seabed bathymetry and the tide. The applied methodology is based on the Integrated Fluid Dynamic Simulation System HyperSuite developed by RSE. This simulation system includes the consideration of all the parameters previously listed, in the frame of a 3D Eulerian finite element fluid dynamic model, which accuracy is guaranteed by a very detailed spatial mesh and by an automatically optimized time step management. In order to assess the methodology features, an area of more than 2500 km2 and depth of 200 m located in the middle Adriatic Sea has been modelled. The information required for the simulation in

  1. Casuarina glauca: A model tree for basic research in actinorhizal ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Casuarina glauca is a fast-growing multipurpose tree belonging to the Casuarinaceae family and native to Australia. It requires limited use of chemical fertilizers due to the symbiotic association with the nitrogen-fixing actinomycete Frankia and with mycorrhizal fungi, which help improve phosphorous and water uptake by ...

  2. Stem biomass and volume models of selected tropical tree species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    (Bombacaceae), Dialium guineense Willd. (Caesalpiniaceae), Diospyros mespiliformis Hochst. ex A.DC. (Ebenaceae) in natural protected tropical forests and, in addition, Tectona grandis L.f. (Verbenaceae) in plantations. In addition to the tree species specific equations, basic wood density, as well as carbon, nitrogen, ...

  3. Casuarina glauca: A model tree for basic research in actinorhizal ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2013-10-01

    Oct 1, 2013 ... Casuarina glauca is a fast-growing multipurpose tree belonging to the Casuarinaceae family and native to Australia. It requires limited use of chemical fertilizers due to the symbiotic association with the nitrogen-fixing actinomycete. Frankia and with mycorrhizal fungi, which help improve phosphorous and ...

  4. Modelling dune erosion under two different climate change scenarios and storm waves conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Enriquez, Alejandra; Roelvink, Dano; Marcos Moreno, Marta

    2017-04-01

    In this work we investigate the impacts in dune erosion due to sea level rise, also predicting the changes to the beach profile in Son Bou beach (Menorca, Western Mediterranean). This beach is a long sandbank (the aerial section is 2500 m long and 30 m width) with an extensive dune area behind it. The beach has been densely monitored: twelve cross beach profiles have been carried out since October 2011, approximately every six months (seven surveys in all). The model used to evaluate changes in the beach profile is XBeach, an open-source numerical model developed to simulate hydrodynamic and morphodynamic processes and impacts on sandy coasts. We first compare the modelled profiles with the seven observed profiles, to demonstrate the capability of the model to simulate the long term profile changes and dune erosion, resulting in a good agreement between them, with a RMSE around 0.65 m. We then assess the dune erosion and beach profile progression under two climate change scenarios, also considering storm and calm wave conditions. Sea level projections are retrieved from state of the art regional estimates, while wave projections are obtained from regional climate models. This process is repeated for each year from 2011 until 2100 showing the gradual changes of the beach.

  5. Integrating air pollution modelling with scenario testing in road transport planning: the TRAEMS approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Affum, J K; Brown, A L; Chan, Y C

    2003-08-01

    Transport add-on environmental modelling system (TRAEMS) is a GIS-based environmental modelling system designed to evaluate the environmental consequences of road traffic in urban areas. Its development has been underpinned by the premises that the evaluation of road traffic impacts is best undertaken during the early planning stages of road networks, and that this can utilise much of the data generated by the transport planners themselves as they apply their travel demand models as to planning of road networks. The system integrates information about traffic-usually from travel-forecasting models-with information about land use, to provide the input data to a range of commonly used models that estimate pollution from a road traffic system, and the energy consumption of that system. TRAEMS facilitates this integration and allows land use, transport and environmental planners to have rapid feedback on the environmental effects of road transport network scenarios that are being developed and tested. Its purpose is to aid in the selection of environmentally-preferred road networks and to highlight where management of pollution levels on future road networks will be required. TRAEMS has a modular structure. This paper describes the main features of the air pollution and fuel consumption modules of the system and illustrates the system's utility through case studies at both metropolitan-wide- and local-area scales.

  6. Modeling of air pollutant removal by dry deposition to urban trees using a WRF/CMAQ/i-Tree Eco coupled system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maria Theresa I. Cabaraban; Charles N. Kroll; Satoshi Hirabayashi; David J. Nowak

    2013-01-01

    A distributed adaptation of i-Tree Eco was used to simulate dry deposition in an urban area. This investigation focused on the effects of varying temperature, LAI, and NO2 concentration inputs on estimated NO2 dry deposition to trees in Baltimore, MD. A coupled modeling system is described, wherein WRF provided temperature...

  7. Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning. Scenario Case Studies using the Resource Planning Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barrows, Clayton [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dyson, Mark [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-04-23

    We examine how model investment decisions change under different model configurations and assumptions related to renewable capacity credit, the inclusion or exclusion of operating reserves, dispatch period sampling, transmission power flow modeling, renewable spur line costs, and the ability of a planning region to import and export power. For all modeled scenarios, we find that under market conditions where new renewable deployment is predominantly driven by renewable portfolio standards, model representations of wind and solar capacity credit and interactions between balancing areas are most influential in avoiding model investments in excess thermal capacity. We also compare computation time between configurations to evaluate tradeoffs between computational burden and model accuracy. From this analysis, we find that certain advanced dispatch representations (e.g., DC optimal power flow) can have dramatic adverse effects on computation time but can be largely inconsequential to model investment outcomes, at least at the renewable penetration levels modeled. Finally, we find that certain underappreciated aspects of new capacity investment decisions and model representations thereof, such as spur lines for new renewable capacity, can influence model outcomes particularly in the renewable technology and location chosen by the model. Though this analysis is not comprehensive and results are specific to the model region, input assumptions, and optimization-modeling framework employed, the findings are intended to provide a guide for model improvement opportunities.

  8. Highly Accurate Tree Models Derived from Terrestrial Laser Scan Data: A Method Description

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Hackenberg

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a method for fitting cylinders into a point cloud, derived from a terrestrial laser-scanned tree. Utilizing high scan quality data as the input, the resulting models describe the branching structure of the tree, capable of detecting branches with a diameter smaller than a centimeter. The cylinders are stored as a hierarchical tree-like data structure encapsulating parent-child neighbor relations and incorporating the tree’s direction of growth. This structure enables the efficient extraction of tree components, such as the stem or a single branch. The method was validated both by applying a comparison of the resulting cylinder models with ground truth data and by an analysis between the input point clouds and the models. Tree models were accomplished representing more than 99% of the input point cloud, with an average distance from the cylinder model to the point cloud within sub-millimeter accuracy. After validation, the method was applied to build two allometric models based on 24 tree point clouds as an example of the application. Computation terminated successfully within less than 30 min. For the model predicting the total above ground volume, the coefficient of determination was 0.965, showing the high potential of terrestrial laser-scanning for forest inventories.

  9. Environmental assessment of low-organic waste landfill scenarios by means of life-cycle assessment modelling (EASEWASTE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manfredi, Simone; Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Scharff, H.

    2010-01-01

    assessments show that the low-organic waste scenarios achieved better environmental performance than the household waste scenarios with regard to both ordinary and toxicity-related environmental impact categories. This indicates that the reduction of organic matter accepted at landfills (as prescribed...... (Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality; WHO, Geneva, 2006) guideline for drinking water quality was assumed as reference. The results show that low-organic waste landfills pose a smaller risk of groundwater contamination, but the impact potentials estimated still remain a lot higher than estimated in other......The environmental performance of two low-organic waste landfill scenarios ('low-organic-energy' and 'low-organic-flare') was developed and compared with two household waste landfill scenarios ('household-energy' and 'household-flare') by means of LCA-modelling. The LCA-modelling was made for 1...

  10. iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

    2011-01-01

    This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

  11. PROBABILISTIC BEHAVIORAL MODEL FOR COMPUTER NETWORK PROTECTION BASED ON ATTACK TREES

    OpenAIRE

    N. A. Dorodnikov; S. A. Arustamov

    2016-01-01

    The paper deals with the results of probabilistic model development for behavioral computer network. We present a method for the system state simulation immediately after the attack. To describe the threats we have selected an appropriate set of mathematical models for processes. The authors have proposed a modification of the attack trees theory including probabilistic attack trees, describing the ways to achieve objectives by illegal intruders and calculating the probability of the various ...

  12. Making the little things count: modeling the development of understory trees in complex stands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Gould; Connie. Harrington

    2013-01-01

    Forest growth models are useful for asking “What if?” questions when evaluating silvicultural treatments intended to increase the complexity of future stands. What if we thinned to level A or B? How would it aff ect the growth rates of understory trees? How many trees would survive? To answer these types of questions, a growth model needs to...

  13. Enhanced adaptive management: integrating decision analysis, scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the Everglades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A; Linkov, Igor

    2013-10-11

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information.

  14. Light minimal supersymmetric standard model Higgs boson scenario and its test at hadron colliders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belyaev, Alexander; Cao, Qing-Hong; Nomura, Daisuke; Tobe, Kazuhiro; Yuan, C-P

    2008-02-15

    We show that, in the minimal supersymmetric standard model, the possibility for the lightest CP-even Higgs boson to be lighter than Z boson (as low as about 60 GeV) is, contrary to the usual belief, not yet excluded by the CERN LEP2 Higgs search nor any direct searches for supersymmetric particles at high energy colliders. The characteristic of the light Higgs boson scenario (LHS) is that the ZZh coupling and the decay branching ratio Br(h/A-->bb) are simultaneously suppressed as a result of generic supersymmetric loop corrections. Consequently, the W(+/-)H(-/+)h coupling has to be large due to the sum rule of Higgs couplings to weak gauge bosons. We discuss the potential of the Fermilab Tevatron and B factories to test the LHS, and show that the associated neutral and charged Higgs boson production process, pp-->H(+/-)h(A), can completely probe the LHS at the CERN Large Hadron Collider.

  15. Modeling for the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario-generation, propagation, inundation, and currents in ports and harbors: Chapter D in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2013-01-01

    This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File report presents a compilation of tsunami modeling studies for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario. These modeling studies are based on an earthquake source specified by the SAFRR tsunami source working group (Kirby and others, 2013). The modeling studies in this report are organized into three groups. The first group relates to tsunami generation. The effects that source discretization and horizontal displacement have on tsunami initial conditions are examined in section 1 (Whitmore and others). In section 2 (Ryan and others), dynamic earthquake rupture models are explored in modeling tsunami generation. These models calculate slip distribution and vertical displacement of the seafloor as a result of realistic fault friction, physical properties of rocks surrounding the fault, and dynamic stresses resolved on the fault. The second group of papers relates to tsunami propagation and inundation modeling. Section 3 (Thio) presents a modeling study for the entire California coast that includes runup and inundation modeling where there is significant exposure and estimates of maximum velocity and momentum flux at the shoreline. In section 4 (Borrero and others), modeling of tsunami propagation and high-resolution inundation of critical locations in southern California is performed using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model and NOAA’s Community Model Interface for Tsunamis (ComMIT) modeling tool. Adjustments to the inundation line owing to fine-scale structures such as levees are described in section 5 (Wilson). The third group of papers relates to modeling of hydrodynamics in ports and harbors. Section 6 (Nicolsky and Suleimani) presents results of the model used at the Alaska Earthquake Information Center for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, as well as synthetic time series of the modeled tsunami for other selected

  16. Application of decision tree model for the ground subsidence hazard mapping near abandoned underground coal mines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Saro; Park, Inhye

    2013-09-30

    Subsidence of ground caused by underground mines poses hazards to human life and property. This study analyzed the hazard to ground subsidence using factors that can affect ground subsidence and a decision tree approach in a geographic information system (GIS). The study area was Taebaek, Gangwon-do, Korea, where many abandoned underground coal mines exist. Spatial data, topography, geology, and various ground-engineering data for the subsidence area were collected and compiled in a database for mapping ground-subsidence hazard (GSH). The subsidence area was randomly split 50/50 for training and validation of the models. A data-mining classification technique was applied to the GSH mapping, and decision trees were constructed using the chi-squared automatic interaction detector (CHAID) and the quick, unbiased, and efficient statistical tree (QUEST) algorithms. The frequency ratio model was also applied to the GSH mapping for comparing with probabilistic model. The resulting GSH maps were validated using area-under-the-curve (AUC) analysis with the subsidence area data that had not been used for training the model. The highest accuracy was achieved by the decision tree model using CHAID algorithm (94.01%) comparing with QUEST algorithms (90.37%) and frequency ratio model (86.70%). These accuracies are higher than previously reported results for decision tree. Decision tree methods can therefore be used efficiently for GSH analysis and might be widely used for prediction of various spatial events. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. A Context-Aware Model to Provide Positioning in Disaster Relief Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Moreno

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The effectiveness of the work performed during disaster relief efforts is highly dependent on the coordination of activities conducted by the first responders deployed in the affected area. Such coordination, in turn, depends on an appropriate management of geo-referenced information. Therefore, enabling first responders to count on positioning capabilities during these activities is vital to increase the effectiveness of the response process. The positioning methods used in this scenario must assume a lack of infrastructure-based communication and electrical energy, which usually characterizes affected areas. Although positioning systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS have been shown to be useful, we cannot assume that all devices deployed in the area (or most of them will have positioning capabilities by themselves. Typically, many first responders carry devices that are not capable of performing positioning on their own, but that require such a service. In order to help increase the positioning capability of first responders in disaster-affected areas, this paper presents a context-aware positioning model that allows mobile devices to estimate their position based on information gathered from their surroundings. The performance of the proposed model was evaluated using simulations, and the obtained results show that mobile devices without positioning capabilities were able to use the model to estimate their position. Moreover, the accuracy of the positioning model has been shown to be suitable for conducting most first response activities.

  18. ENSIS, Pollution inventory, pollution budget model, water quality model and scenario handling. Functional specification

    OpenAIRE

    Bakken, T.H.; Bjørkenes, A.; Dagestad, K.

    2003-01-01

    Årsliste 2003 This is the functional specification of a complete pollution budget model for water. A crucial improvement of this model is implementation of new pollution sources and modification of existing sources. The specification of a water quality model, based on the results from the pollution budget model is also included. The document is intended to give a cost and time estimate of the programming of the functionality it describes, and will be the guideline for implementation of the...

  19. Integrating surrogate models into subsurface simulation framework allows computation of complex reactive transport scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Lucia, Marco; Kempka, Thomas; Jatnieks, Janis; Kühn, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Reactive transport simulations - where geochemical reactions are coupled with hydrodynamic transport of reactants - are extremely time consuming and suffer from significant numerical issues. Given the high uncertainties inherently associated with the geochemical models, which also constitute the major computational bottleneck, such requirements may seem inappropriate and probably constitute the main limitation for their wide application. A promising way to ease and speed-up such coupled simulations is achievable employing statistical surrogates instead of "full-physics" geochemical models [1]. Data-driven surrogates are reduced models obtained on a set of pre-calculated "full physics" simulations, capturing their principal features while being extremely fast to compute. Model reduction of course comes at price of a precision loss; however, this appears justified in presence of large uncertainties regarding the parametrization of geochemical processes. This contribution illustrates the integration of surrogates into the flexible simulation framework currently being developed by the authors' research group [2]. The high level language of choice for obtaining and dealing with surrogate models is R, which profits from state-of-the-art methods for statistical analysis of large simulations ensembles. A stand-alone advective mass transport module was furthermore developed in order to add such capability to any multiphase finite volume hydrodynamic simulator within the simulation framework. We present 2D and 3D case studies benchmarking the performance of surrogates and "full physics" chemistry in scenarios pertaining the assessment of geological subsurface utilization. [1] Jatnieks, J., De Lucia, M., Dransch, D., Sips, M.: "Data-driven surrogate model approach for improving the performance of reactive transport simulations.", Energy Procedia 97, 2016, p. 447-453. [2] Kempka, T., Nakaten, B., De Lucia, M., Nakaten, N., Otto, C., Pohl, M., Chabab [Tillner], E., Kühn, M

  20. A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change scenarios in Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Stewart, Jana S.; Buchwald, Cheryl A.; Mitro, Matthew G.; Lyons, John D.; Greb, Steven

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change is expected to alter temperature and flow regimes for streams in Wisconsin over the coming decades. Stream temperature will be influenced not only by the predicted increases in average air temperature, but also by changes in baseflow due to changes in precipitation patterns and amounts. In order to evaluate future stream temperature and flow regimes in Wisconsin, we have integrated two existing models in order to generate a water temperature time series at a regional scale for thousands of stream reaches where site-specific temperature observations do not exist. The approach uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model, along with a recalibrated version of an existing artificial neural network (ANN) stream temperature model. The ANN model simulates stream temperatures on the basis of landscape variables such as land use and soil type, and also includes climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation amounts. The existing ANN model includes a landscape variable called DARCY designed to reflect the potential for groundwater recharge in the contributing area for a stream segment. SWB tracks soil-moisture and potential recharge at a daily time step, providing a way to link changing climate patterns and precipitation amounts over time to baseflow volumes, and presumably to stream temperatures. The recalibrated ANN incorporates SWB-derived estimates of potential recharge to supplement the static estimates of groundwater flow potential derived from a topographically based model (DARCY). SWB and the recalibrated ANN will be supplied with climate drivers from a suite of general circulation models and emissions scenarios, enabling resource managers to evaluate possible changes in stream temperature regimes for Wisconsin.

  1. Scenario Based Municipal Wastewater Estimation: Development and Application of a Dynamic Simulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops causal loop diagrams and a system dynamics model for estimation of wastewater quantity changes as a function of future socioeconomic development and the municipal water environment of the city under the influence of several key factors. Using Wuhan (a city with population more than 10 million in China as a case study, the variability of Wuhan’s wastewater quantity and water environment is modeled under different development patterns by year 2030. Nine future scenarios are designed by assigning different values to those key factors, including GDP growth rate, water consumption of annual ten thousand GDP, and wastewater treatment fee. The results show that (1 GDP growth leads to an increase in municipal wastewater quantity, but an increase in wastewater treatment fee can be in favor of reducing urban water pollution, and (2 the impact of per ten thousand yuan GDP water consumption on the amount of municipal wastewater is larger in the near future, while the impact of GDP growth rate is much larger in the long term. The dynamic model has proven to be reliable for simulating the municipal wastewater changes, and it could help decision makers to make the scientific and reasonable decisions.

  2. LAKE-0: a model for the simulation of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Olivares, A.; Aguero, A.; Pinedo, P.

    1994-07-01

    This report presents documentation and a user's manual for the program LAKE-0, a mathematical model of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios. Mathematical equations and physical principles used to develop the code are presented in section 2. The program use is presented in section 3 including input data sets and output data. Section 4 presents two example problems, and some results. The complete program listing including comments is presented in Appendix A. Nuclides are assumed to center the lake via atmospheric deposition and carried by the water runoff and the dragged sediments from the adjacent catchment. The dynamics of the nuclides inside the lake is based in the model proposed by Codell (11) as modified in (5). The removal of concentration from the lake water is due to out flow from the lake and to the transfer of activity to the button sediments. The model has been applied to the Esthwaite Water (54 degree celsius 2 l'N, 03 degree celsius 00'W at 65 m. asi.) in the frame of the VAMP Aquatic Working Group (8) and to Devoke Water (5 21.5'N, 03H8'W at 230 m. asi.). (Author). 13 refs.

  3. On a mean field game optimal control approach modeling fast exit scenarios in human crowds

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin

    2013-12-01

    The understanding of fast exit and evacuation situations in crowd motion research has received a lot of scientific interest in the last decades. Security issues in larger facilities, like shopping malls, sports centers, or festivals necessitate a better understanding of the major driving forces in crowd dynamics. In this paper we present an optimal control approach modeling fast exit scenarios in pedestrian crowds. The model is formulated in the framework of mean field games and based on a parabolic optimal control problem. We consider the case of a large human crowd trying to exit a room as fast as possible. The motion of every pedestrian is determined by minimizing a cost functional, which depends on his/her position and velocity, the overall density of people, and the time to exit. This microscopic setup leads in a mean-field formulation to a nonlinear macroscopic optimal control problem, which raises challenging questions for the analysis and numerical simulations.We discuss different aspects of the mathematical modeling and illustrate them with various computational results. ©2013 IEEE.

  4. Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirschi, M.; Stoeckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Calanca, P.; Rotach, M. W.; Fischer, A. M.; Duffy, B.; Samietz, J.

    2012-02-01

    As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology, depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980-2009 and 2045-2074 time periods) climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045-2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern Switzerland (for most stations from roughly 1

  5. Atmospheric Transport Modelling and Radionuclide Analysis for the NPE 2015 scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, J. Ole; Bollhöfer, Andreas; Heidmann, Verena; Krais, Roman; Schlosser, Clemens; Gestermann, Nicolai; Ceranna, Lars

    2017-04-01

    The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) prohibits all kinds of nuclear explosions. The International Monitoring System (IMS) is in place and at about 90% complete to verify compliance with the CTBT. The stations of the waveform technologies are capable to detect seismic, hydro-acoustic and infrasonic signals for detection, localization, and characterization of explosions. For practicing Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification procedures and interplay between the International Data Centre (IDC) and National Data Centres (NDC), prepardness exercises (NPE) are regularly performed with selected events of fictitious CTBT-violation. The German NDC's expertise for radionuclide analyses and operation of station RN33 is provided by the Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS) while Atmospheric Transport Modelling (ATM) for CTBT purposes is performed at the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) for the combination of the radionuclide findings with waveform evidence. The radionuclide part of the NPE 2015 scenario is tackled in a joint effort by BfS and BGR. First, the NPE 2015 spectra are analysed, fission products are identified, and respective activity concentrations are derived. Special focus is on isotopic ratios which allow for source characterization and event timing. For atmospheric backtracking the binary coincidence method is applied for both, SRS fields from IDC and WMO-RSMC, and for in-house backward simulations in higher resolution for the first affected samples. Results are compared with the WebGrape PSR and the spatio-temporal domain with high atmospheric release probability is determined. The ATM results together with the radionuclide fingerprint are used for identification of waveform candidate events. Comparative forward simulations of atmospheric dispersion for candidate events are performed. Finally the overall consistency of various source scenarios is assessed and a fictitious government briefing on

  6. Modelling present and future African climate using CMIP5scenarios in HadGEM2-ES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimizu, M. H.; Diallo, M.; Dike, V. N.

    2014-12-01

    The present precipitation and temperature patterns and expected future changes (2073-2098) in Africa are investigated using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) under the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) protocols for historical and future emission scenarios simulations.In a CMIP5 multimodel analysis, the annual cycles of temperature and precipitation simulated by HadGEM2-ES were very close to the multimodel ensemble mean. HadGEM2-ES temperature simulation compares well with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis over the 1979-2004 periods, except for a summer overestimation in Central Africa, and a winter underestimation in tropical West Africa. The precipitation simulation compared well with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data from 1979 to 2004 over the entire Africa, except in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where the model fails to capture adequately the transition phase of the monsoon circulation. The dry regimes over Northern Africa as well as the wetter regime occurring over Central Africa, which is mainly regulated by the ITCZ displacement, and during the austral summer of Southern Africa, are also fairly reproduced by the HadGEM2-ES model. The model projects for the end of the 21st century a rainy South Africa, a change of the flood/drought cycle in the Tropics and a warming over the whole continent, varying from 3 to 7 ∘ C. HadGEM2-ES performance for Nigeria shows good reproduction of precipitation seasonal cycles for some locations, outside the ITCZ. However, the comparison with in situ measurement in Ilorin and Lagos shows the model is not being able to reproduce the precipitation annual cycle. Future projections for Nigeria exhibit warming everywhere and an enhancement of precipitation, especially in the northern part of the country.

  7. Transport modeling of the DIII-D high {{\\beta}_{p}} scenario and extrapolations to ITER steady-state operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClenaghan, J.; Garofalo, A. M.; Meneghini, O.; Smith, S. P.; Leuer, J. A.; Staebler, G. M.; Lao, L. L.; Park, J. M.; Ding, S. Y.; Gong, X.; Qian, J.

    2017-11-01

    Transport modeling of a proposed ITER steady-state scenario based on DIII-D high poloidal-beta ({βp} ) discharges finds that ITB formation can occur with either sufficient rotation or a negative central shear q-profile. The high {βp} scenario is characterized by a large bootstrap current fraction (80%) which reduces the demands on the external current drive, and a large radius internal transport barrier which is associated with excellent normalized confinement. Modeling predictions of the electron transport in the high {βp} scenario improve as {{q}95} approaches levels similar to typical existing models of ITER steady-state and the ion transport is turbulence dominated. Typical temperature and density profiles from the non-inductive high {βp} scenario on DIII-D are scaled according to 0D modeling predictions of the requirements for achieving a Q=5 steady-state fusion gain in ITER with ‘day one’ heating and current drive capabilities. Then, TGLF turbulence modeling is carried out under systematic variations of the toroidal rotation and the core q-profile. A high bootstrap fraction, high {βp} scenario is found to be near an ITB formation threshold, and either strong negative central magnetic shear or rotation in a high bootstrap fraction are found to successfully provide the turbulence suppression required to achieve Q=5 .

  8. Coupling urban growth scenarios with nearshore biophysical change models to inform coastal restoration planning in Puget Sound, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, K. B.; Kreitler, J.; Labiosa, W.

    2010-12-01

    A scenario represents an account of a plausible future given logical assumptions about how conditions change over discrete bounds of space and time. Development of multiple scenarios provides a means to identify alternative directions of urban growth that account for a range of uncertainty in human behavior. Interactions between human and natural processes may be studied by coupling urban growth scenario outputs with biophysical change models; if growth scenarios encompass a sufficient range of alternative futures, scenario assumptions serve to constrain the uncertainty of biophysical models. Spatially explicit urban growth models (map-based) produce output such as distributions and densities of residential or commercial development in a GIS format that can serve as input to other models. Successful fusion of growth model outputs with other model inputs requires that both models strategically address questions of interest, incorporate ecological feedbacks, and minimize error. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM) is a decision-support tool that supports land use and restoration planning in Puget Sound, Washington, a 35,500 sq. km region. The PSEPM couples future scenarios of urban growth with statistical, process-based and rule-based models of nearshore biophysical changes and ecosystem services. By using a multi-criteria approach, the PSEPM identifies cross-system and cumulative threats to the nearshore environment plus opportunities for conservation and restoration. Sub-models that predict changes in nearshore biophysical condition were developed and existing models were integrated to evaluate three growth scenarios: 1) Status Quo, 2) Managed Growth, and 3) Unconstrained Growth. These decadal scenarios were developed and projected out to 2060 at Oregon State University using the GIS-based ENVISION model. Given land management decisions and policies under each growth scenario, the sub-models predicted changes in 1) fecal

  9. Mapping potential carbon and timber losses from hurricanes using a decision tree and ecosystem services driver model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delphin, S; Escobedo, F J; Abd-Elrahman, A; Cropper, W

    2013-11-15

    Information on the effect of direct drivers such as hurricanes on ecosystem services is relevant to landowners and policy makers due to predicted effects from climate change. We identified forest damage risk zones due to hurricanes and estimated the potential loss of 2 key ecosystem services: aboveground carbon storage and timber volume. Using land cover, plot-level forest inventory data, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, and a decision tree-based framework; we determined potential damage to subtropical forests from hurricanes in the Lower Suwannee River (LS) and Pensacola Bay (PB) watersheds in Florida, US. We used biophysical factors identified in previous studies as being influential in forest damage in our decision tree and hurricane wind risk maps. Results show that 31% and 0.5% of the total aboveground carbon storage in the LS and PB, respectively was located in high forest damage risk (HR) zones. Overall 15% and 0.7% of the total timber net volume in the LS and PB, respectively, was in HR zones. This model can also be used for identifying timber salvage areas, developing ecosystem service provision and management scenarios, and assessing the effect of other drivers on ecosystem services and goods. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. [Biomass dynamics of tree branches of higher order. A model analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galitskiĭ, V V

    2012-01-01

    The sectional model of biomass dynamics of freely growing tree brahcnes of all orders is presented. The model is an extension of the sectional tree biomass model proposed earlier. The branches model showed bell-shaped dynamics of a branches biomass and, accordingly, boundedness of branch orders number. The important element of the model of branches system is the inter-verticil green biomass. The model is parameterized on the basis of published data on lifespan of branches of different orders and age in which the biomass of skeletal branches of spruce, Picea abies (L.) Karst, reaches the maximum. When adding known peculiarities of spruce growth (such as the initial growth inhibiton and presence of the inter-verticil branches) to the model of biomass dynamics of regular branches system, good appproximation of all natural data by model values is obtained. The possible mechanism of inter-verticil branches appearance in response to improvement of a tree growth conditions, and also their function in a tree growth process, namely replacement of regular branches incapable of appropriate response, is described. Initiation of appearing and/or waking of the sleeping (adventive) buds which give rise to inter-verticil branches is probably caused by rise of pressure of photosynthates in a tree phloem what the published results of experiments on a decapitaion of branches of Wollemia nobilis (Araucariaceae) also testify.

  11. MRI-based decision tree model for diagnosis of biliary atresia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yong Hee; Kim, Myung-Joon; Shin, Hyun Joo; Yoon, Haesung; Han, Seok Joo; Koh, Hong; Roh, Yun Ho; Lee, Mi-Jung

    2018-02-23

    To evaluate MRI findings and to generate a decision tree model for diagnosis of biliary atresia (BA) in infants with jaundice. We retrospectively reviewed features of MRI and ultrasonography (US) performed in infants with jaundice between January 2009 and June 2016 under approval of the institutional review board, including the maximum diameter of periportal signal change on MRI (MR triangular cord thickness, MR-TCT) or US (US-TCT), visibility of common bile duct (CBD) and abnormality of gallbladder (GB). Hepatic subcapsular flow was reviewed on Doppler US. We performed conditional inference tree analysis using MRI findings to generate a decision tree model. A total of 208 infants were included, 112 in the BA group and 96 in the non-BA group. Mean age at the time of MRI was 58.7 ± 36.6 days. Visibility of CBD, abnormality of GB and MR-TCT were good discriminators for the diagnosis of BA and the MRI-based decision tree using these findings with MR-TCT cut-off 5.1 mm showed 97.3 % sensitivity, 94.8 % specificity and 96.2 % accuracy. MRI-based decision tree model reliably differentiates BA in infants with jaundice. MRI can be an objective imaging modality for the diagnosis of BA. • MRI-based decision tree model reliably differentiates biliary atresia in neonatal cholestasis. • Common bile duct, gallbladder and periportal signal changes are the discriminators. • MRI has comparable performance to ultrasonography for diagnosis of biliary atresia.

  12. Numerical study of a cylinder model of the diffusion MRI signal for neuronal dendrite trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Nguyen, Dang; Grebenkov, Denis; Le Bihan, Denis; Li, Jing-Rebecca

    2015-03-01

    We study numerically how the neuronal dendrite tree structure can affect the diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI) signal in brain tissue. For a large set of randomly generated dendrite trees, synthetic dMRI signals are computed and fitted to a cylinder model to estimate the effective longitudinal diffusivity DL in the direction of neurites. When the dendrite branches are short compared to the diffusion length, DL depends significantly on the ratio between the average branch length and the diffusion length. In turn, DL has very weak dependence on the distribution of branch lengths and orientations of a dendrite tree, and the number of branches per node. We conclude that the cylinder model which ignores the connectivity of the dendrite tree, can still be adapted to describe the apparent diffusion coefficient in brain tissue.

  13. Modelling the Northward Expansion of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae under Future Climate Scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Zuliani

    Full Text Available Climate change is affecting the distribution of pathogens and their arthropod vectors worldwide, particularly at northern latitudes. The distribution of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae plays a key role in affecting the emergence and spread of significant vector borne diseases such as Bluetongue (BT and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease (EHD at the border between USA and Canada. We used 50 presence points for C. sonorensis collected in Montana (USA and south-central Alberta (Canada between 2002 and 2012, together with monthly climatic and environmental predictors to develop a series of alternative maximum entropy distribution models. The best distribution model under current climatic conditions was selected through the Akaike Information Criterion, and included four predictors: Vapour Pressure Deficit of July, standard deviation of Elevation, Land Cover and mean Precipitation of May. This model was then projected into three climate change scenarios adopted by the IPCC in its 5th assessment report and defined as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Climate change data for each predictor and each RCP were calculated for two time points pooling decadal data around each one of them: 2030 (2021-2040 and 2050 (2041-2060. Our projections showed that the areas predicted to be at moderate-high probability of C. sonorensis occurrence would increase from the baseline scenario to 2030 and from 2030 to 2050 for each RCP. The projection also indicated that the current northern limit of C. sonorensis distribution is expected to move northwards to above 53°N. This may indicate an increased risk of Culicoides-borne diseases occurrence over the next decades, particularly at the USA-Canada border, as a result of changes which favor C. sonorensis presence when associated to other factors (i.e. host and pathogen factors. Recent observations of EHD outbreaks in northern Montana and southern Alberta supported our projections and

  14. Adaptation to hydrological extremes through insurance: a financial fund simulation model under changing scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzman, Diego; Mohor, Guilherme; Câmara, Clarissa; Mendiondo, Eduardo

    2017-04-01

    Researches from around the world relate global environmental changes with the increase of vulnerability to extreme events, such as heavy and scarce precipitations - floods and droughts. Hydrological disasters have caused increasing losses in recent years. Thus, risk transfer mechanisms, such as insurance, are being implemented to mitigate impacts, finance the recovery of the affected population, and promote the reduction of hydrological risks. However, among the main problems in implementing these strategies, there are: First, the partial knowledge of natural and anthropogenic climate change in terms of intensity and frequency; Second, the efficient risk reduction policies require accurate risk assessment, with careful consideration of costs; Third, the uncertainty associated with numerical models and input data used. The objective of this document is to introduce and discuss the feasibility of the application of Hydrological Risk Transfer Models (HRTMs) as a strategy of adaptation to global climate change. The article shows the development of a methodology for the collective and multi-sectoral vulnerability management, facing the hydrological risk in the long term, under an insurance funds simulator. The methodology estimates the optimized premium as a function of willingness to pay (WTP) and the potential direct loss derived from hydrological risk. The proposed methodology structures the watershed insurance scheme in three analysis modules. First, the hazard module, which characterizes the hydrologic threat from the recorded series input or modelled series under IPCC / RCM's generated scenarios. Second, the vulnerability module calculates the potential economic loss for each sector1 evaluated as a function of the return period "TR". Finally, the finance module determines the value of the optimal aggregate premium by evaluating equiprobable scenarios of water vulnerability; taking into account variables such as the maximum limit of coverage, deductible

  15. Effect of different tree mortality patterns on stand development in the forest model SIBYLA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trombik Jiří

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Forest mortality critically affects stand structure and the quality of ecosystem services provided by forests. Spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus generates rather complex infestation and mortality patterns, and implementation of such patterns in forest models is challenging. We present here the procedure, which allows to simulate the bark beetle-related tree mortality in the forest dynamics model Sibyla. We explored how sensitive various production and stand structure indicators are to tree mortality patterns, which can be generated by bark beetles. We compared the simulation outputs for three unmanaged forest stands with 40, 70 and 100% proportion of spruce as affected by the disturbance-related mortality that occurred in a random pattern and in a patchy pattern. The used tree species and age class-specific mortality rates were derived from the disturbance-related mortality records from Slovakia. The proposed algorithm was developed in the SQLite using the Python language, and the algorithm allowed us to define the degree of spatial clustering of dead trees ranging from a random distribution to a completely clustered distribution; a number of trees that died in either mode is set to remain equal. We found significant differences between the long-term developments of the three investigated forest stands, but we found very little effect of the tested mortality modes on stand increment, tree species composition and diversity, and tree size diversity. Hence, our hypothesis that the different pattern of dead trees emergence should affect the competitive interactions between trees and regeneration, and thus affect selected productivity and stand structure indicators was not confirmed.

  16. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  17. [Compatible biomass models for main tree species with measurement error in Heilongjiang Province of Northeast China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Li-hu; Li, Feng-ri; Jia, Wei-wei; Liu, Fu-xiang; Wang, He-zhi

    2011-10-01

    Based on the biomass data of 516 sampling trees, and by using non-linear error-in-variable modeling approach, the compatible models for the total biomass and the biomass of six components including aboveground part, underground part, stem, crown, branch, and foliage of 15 major tree species (or groups) in Heilongjiang Province were established, and the best models for the total biomass and components biomass were selected. The compatible models based on total biomass were developed by adopting the method of joint control different level ratio function. The heteroscedasticity of the models for total biomass was eliminated with log transformation, and the weighted regression was applied to the models for each individual component. Among the compatible biomass models established for the 15 major species (or groups) , the model for total biomass had the highest prediction precision (90% or more), followed by the models for aboveground part and stem biomass, with a precision of 87.5% or more. The prediction precision of the biomass models for other components was relatively low, but it was still greater than 80% for most test tree species. The modeling efficiency (EF) values of the total, aboveground part, and stem biomass models for all the tree species (or groups) were over 0.9, and the EF values of the underground part, crown, branch, and foliage biomass models were over 0.8.

  18. Integrated analysis of landscape management scenarios using state and transition models in the upper Grande Ronde River subbasin, Oregon, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles A. Hemstrom; James Merzenich; Allison Reger; Barbara. Wales

    2007-01-01

    We modeled the integrated effects of natural disturbances and management activities for three disturbance scenarios on a 178 000-ha landscape in the upper Grande Ronde subbasin of northeast Oregon. The landscape included three forest environments (warm-dry, cool-moist, and cold) as well as a mixture of publicly and privately owned lands. Our models were state and...

  19. Fabric-skin models to assess infection transfer for impetigo contagiosa in a kindergarten scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerhardts, A; Henze, S V; Bockmühl, D; Höfer, D

    2015-06-01

    Children in community bodies like kindergartens are predisposed to suffer from impetigo. To consider important measures for infection prevention, direct and indirect transmission routes of pathogens must be revealed. Therefore, we studied the role of skin and fabrics in the spread of the impetigo pathogen Staphylococcus aureus and the strain Streptococcus equi (surrogate to Streptococcus pyogenes) in order to assess infection transfer in realistic scenarios. The transmission of test strains was studied with standardized fabric-skin models using a technical artificial skin and fabrics of different fiber types commonly occurring in German kindergartens. In synthetic pus, both test strains persisted on artificial skin and fabrics for at least 4 h. Friction enhanced transfer, depending on the fiber type or fabric construction. In a skin-to-skin setup, the total transfer was higher than via fabrics and no decrease in the transmission rates from donor to recipients could be observed after successive direct skin contacts. Children in kindergartens may be at risk of transmission for impetigo pathogens, especially via direct skin contact, but also by the joint use of fabrics, like towels or handicraft materials. Fabric-skin models used in this study enable further insight into the transmission factors for skin infections on the basis of a practical approach.

  20. Study of impurity effects on CFETR steady-state scenario by self-consistent integrated modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Nan; Chan, Vincent S.; Jian, Xiang; Li, Guoqiang; Chen, Jiale; Gao, Xiang; Shi, Shengyu; Kong, Defeng; Liu, Xiaoju; Mao, Shifeng; Xu, Guoliang

    2017-12-01

    Impurity effects on fusion performance of China fusion engineering test reactor (CFETR) due to extrinsic seeding are investigated. An integrated 1.5D modeling workflow evolves plasma equilibrium and all transport channels to steady state. The one modeling framework for integrated tasks framework is used to couple the transport solver, MHD equilibrium solver, and source and sink calculations. A self-consistent impurity profile constructed using a steady-state background plasma, which satisfies quasi-neutrality and true steady state, is presented for the first time. Studies are performed based on an optimized fully non-inductive scenario with varying concentrations of Argon (Ar) seeding. It is found that fusion performance improves before dropping off with increasing {{Z}\\text{eff}} , while the confinement remains at high level. Further analysis of transport for these plasmas shows that low-k ion temperature gradient modes dominate the turbulence. The decrease in linear growth rate and resultant fluxes of all channels with increasing {{Z}\\text{eff}} can be traced to impurity profile change by transport. The improvement in confinement levels off at higher {{Z}\\text{eff}} . Over the regime of study there is a competition between the suppressed transport and increasing radiation that leads to a peak in the fusion performance at {{Z}\\text{eff}} (~2.78 for CFETR). Extrinsic impurity seeding to control divertor heat load will need to be optimized around this value for best fusion performance.

  1. MOSES – A modelling tool for the analysis of scenarios of the European electricity supply system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agert C.

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have shown that a transition of the current power supply system in Europe to a system almost entirely based on fluctuating Renewable Energy Sources (RES by mid-century is possible. However, most of these scenarios require a significant amount of back-up power capacities to ensure the security of electricity supply. This would imply high additional investments and operating costs. Hence, alternative options should be investigated first. Here we present a first outlook of our simulation model MOSES which will be able to analyse different target states of the European electricity system in 2050. In this model long-term meteorological data series are used to optimise the capacity mix of RES in Europe. One of the main elements of our tool is a simplified electricity network. In addition, alternative options for reduction of additional back-up power like the expansion of the transmission grid, the use of demand-side management and/or the installation of over-capacities will be implemented. The results will be used to provide scientifically proven recommendations to policy makers for a reliable energy supply system in Europe based on Renewable Energy Sources.

  2. Improving NPP availability using thermalhydraulic integral plant models. Assessment and application of turbine run back scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reventos, F. [ANACNV, l' Hospitalet de l' Infant, Tarragona (Spain)]|[Technical University of Catalonia, UPC (Spain); Llopis, C.; Pretel, C. [Technical University of Catalonia, UPC (Spain); Posada, J.M.; Moreno, P. [Pablo Moreno S.A. (Spain)

    2001-07-01

    ANAV is the utility responsible of Asco and Vandellos Nuclear Power Plants, a two-unit and a single unit 1000 MW PWR plant, respectively. Both plants, Asco and Vandellos, are in normal operation since 1983 and 1987 and have undergone different important improvements like: steam generators and turbine substitution, power up-rating... Best estimate simulation by means of the thermal-hydraulic integral models of operating nuclear power plants are today impressively helpful for utilities in their purpose of improving availability and keeping safety level. ANAV is currently using Relap5/mod3.2 models of both plants for different purposes related to safety, operation, engineering and training. Turbine run-back system is designed to avoid reactor trips, and it does so in the existing plants, when the key parameters are correctly adjusted. The fine adjustment of such parameters was traditionally performed following the results of control simulators. Such simulators used a fully developed set of control equations and a quite simplified thermal-hydraulic feed-back. Boundary scenarios were considered in order to overcome the difficulties generated by simplification. (author)

  3. Above- and Belowground Biomass Models for Trees in the Miombo Woodlands of Malawi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daud J. Kachamba

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study we present general (multiple tree species from several sites above- and belowground biomass models for trees in the miombo woodlands of Malawi. Such models are currently lacking in the country. The modelling was based on 74 trees comprising 33 different species with diameters at breast height (dbh and total tree height (ht ranging from 5.3 to 2 cm and from 3.0 to 25.0 m, respectively. Trees were collected from four silvicultural zones covering a wide range of conditions. We tested different models including dbh, ht and wood specific gravity ( ρ as independent variables. We evaluated model performance using pseudo-R2, root mean square error (RMSE, a covariance matrix for the parameter estimates, mean prediction error (MPE and relative mean prediction error (MPE%. Computation of MPE% was based on leave-one-out cross-validation. Values of pseudo-R2 and MPE% ranged 0.82–0.97 and 0.9%–2.8%, respectively. Model performance indicated that the models can be used over a wide range of geographical and ecological conditions in Malawi.

  4. Selection the Optimum Suppliers Compound Using a Mixed Model of MADM and Fault Tree Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meysam Azimian

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an integrated approach of MADM and fault tree analysis (FTA is provided for determining the most reliable combination of suppliers for a strategic product in IUT University. At first, risks of suppliers is estimated by defining the indices for evaluating them, determining their relative status indices and using satisfying and SAW methods. Then, intrinsic risks of utilized equipments in the products are qualified and the final integrated risk for equipments is determined. Finally, through all the different scenarios, the best composition of equipment suppliers is selected by defining the palpable top events and fault tree analysis. The contribution of this paper is about proposing an integrated method of MADM and FTA to determine the most reliable suppliers in order to minimize the final risk of providing a product.

  5. Performance of trees in forest canopies: explorations with a bottom-up functional-structural plant growth model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterck, F.J.; Schieving, F.; Lemmens, A.; Pons, T.L.

    2005-01-01

    Here we present a functional-structural plant model that integrates the growth of metamers into a growing, three-dimensional tree structure, and study the effects of different constraints and strategies on tree performance in different canopies. The tree is a three-dimensional system of connected

  6. A System to Derive Optimal Tree Diameter Increment Models from the Eastwide Forest Inventory Data Base (EFIDB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Don C. Bragg

    2002-01-01

    This article is an introduction to the computer software used by the Potential Relative Increment (PRI) approach to optimal tree diameter growth modeling. These DOS programs extract qualified tree and plot data from the Eastwide Forest Inventory Data Base (EFIDB), calculate relative tree increment, sort for the highest relative increments by diameter class, and...

  7. An object-oriented forest landscape model and its representation of tree species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Joel Boeder

    1999-01-01

    LANDIS is a forest landscape model that simulates the interaction of large landscape processes and forest successional dynamics at tree species level. We discuss how object-oriented design (OOD) approaches such as modularity, abstraction and encapsulation are integrated into the design of LANDIS. We show that using OOD approaches, model decisions (olden as model...

  8. Inverse modeling and animation of growing single-stemmed trees at interactive rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. Rudnick; L. Linsen; E.G. McPherson

    2007-01-01

    For city planning purposes, animations of growing trees of several species can be used to deduce which species may best fit a particular environment. The models used for the animation must conform to real measured data. We present an approach for inverse modeling to fit global growth parameters. The model comprises local production rules, which are iteratively and...

  9. Estimating the weight of Douglas-fir tree boles and logs with an iterative computer model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale R. Waddell; Dale L Weyermann; Michael B. Lambert

    1987-01-01

    A computer model that estimates the green weights of standing trees was developed and validated for old-growth Douglas-fir. The model calculates the green weight for the entire bole, for the bole to any merchantable top, and for any log length within the bole. The model was validated by estimating the bias and accuracy of an independent subsample selected from the...

  10. Modeling the survival kinetics of Salmonella in tree nuts for use in risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santillana Farakos, Sofia M; Pouillot, Régis; Anderson, Nathan; Johnson, Rhoma; Son, Insook; Van Doren, Jane

    2016-06-16

    Salmonella has been shown to survive in tree nuts over long periods of time. This survival capacity and its variability are key elements for risk assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts. The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict survival of Salmonella in tree nuts at ambient storage temperatures that considers variability and uncertainty separately and can easily be incorporated into a risk assessment model. Data on Salmonella survival on raw almonds, pecans, pistachios and walnuts were collected from the peer reviewed literature. The Weibull model was chosen as the baseline model and various fixed effect and mixed effect models were fit to the data. The best model identified through statistical analysis testing was then used to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model. Salmonella in tree nuts showed slow declines at temperatures ranging from 21°C to 24°C. A high degree of variability in survival was observed across tree nut studies reported in the literature. Statistical analysis results indicated that the best applicable model was a mixed effect model that included a fixed and random variation of δ per tree nut (which is the time it takes for the first log10 reduction) and a fixed variation of ρ per tree nut (parameter which defines the shape of the curve). Higher estimated survival rates (δ) were obtained for Salmonella on pistachios, followed in decreasing order by pecans, almonds and walnuts. The posterior distributions obtained from Bayesian inference were used to estimate the variability in the log10 decrease levels in survival for each tree nut, and the uncertainty of these estimates. These modeled uncertainty and variability distributions of the estimates can be used to obtain a complete exposure assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts when including time-temperature parameters for storage and consumption data. The statistical approach presented in this study may be applied to any studies that aim to develop predictive models to be

  11. Modelling future fire probability in the Brazilian Amazon under different land-use and climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Marisa; Alves, Lincoln; Aguiar, Ana Paula; Anderson, Liana; Aragão, Luiz

    2017-04-01

    Climate and land-use change are expected to amplify fire incidence in the Amazon. Modelling the influence of land-use and climate change scenarios on fire occurrence is therefore important to better understand their impacts on the carbon emissions and ecosystems' degradation in the region. Here we use the Maximum Entropy method (MaxEnt) to estimate the impact of different climate and land-use change scenarios on the relative fire probability (RFP) during the 2071-2099 period in the Brazilian Amazon with a 0.25° spatial resolution. The model was calibrated using satellite-based fire detections during the 2006-2015 period (hereafter "baseline"). The land-use change variables were obtained considering alternative pathways of clear-cut deforestation, secondary vegetation and old growth forest degradation resulting from major socioeconomic, institutional and environmental dynamics in the region. The climatic variables were generated using a regional model (ETA) nested in an earth system global model (HadGEM2-ES). A land-use "sustainability" scenario considering that institutional and political conditions would favour the increase in forest regeneration and decrease of the old growth forest degradation and clear-cut deforestation rates was combined with the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 climatic scenario (hereafter SUST-4.5). To access the worst-case scenario of fire incidence, a "fragmentation" land-use scenario, representing the opposite tendency of the "sustainability" conditions, was combined with the climatic variables resulting from the RCP 8.5 (FRAG-8.5). The test AUC (area under de curve) metric (0.768 ± 0.018) indicated satisfactory model performance. In the FRAG-8.5 scenario 63% ( 2.900.000 km2) of the study region shows from 0.35 to 0.55 of RFP, while in the baseline and under the SUST-4.5 scenario, 30% and 40% of the region is within this range of RFP, respectively. Conversely, in the baseline 29% of the area shows up to 0.1 RFP, but this

  12. Development of a model of the coronary arterial tree for the 4D XCAT phantom

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fung, George S K; Tsui, Benjamin M W [Department of Radiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD (United States); Segars, W Paul [Department of Radiology, Duke University, Durham, NC (United States); Gullberg, Grant T, E-mail: gfung2@jhmi.edu [E O Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Life Science Division, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2011-09-07

    A detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the coronary artery tree with cardiac motion has great potential for applications in a wide variety of medical imaging research areas. In this work, we first developed a computer-generated 3D model of the coronary arterial tree for the heart in the extended cardiac-torso (XCAT) phantom, thereby creating a realistic computer model of the human anatomy. The coronary arterial tree model was based on two datasets: (1) a gated cardiac dual-source computed tomography (CT) angiographic dataset obtained from a normal human subject and (2) statistical morphometric data of porcine hearts. The initial proximal segments of the vasculature and the anatomical details of the boundaries of the ventricles were defined by segmenting the CT data. An iterative rule-based generation method was developed and applied to extend the coronary arterial tree beyond the initial proximal segments. The algorithm was governed by three factors: (1) statistical morphometric measurements of the connectivity, lengths and diameters of the arterial segments; (2) avoidance forces from other vessel segments and the boundaries of the myocardium, and (3) optimality principles which minimize the drag force at the bifurcations of the generated tree. Using this algorithm, the 3D computational model of the largest six orders of the coronary arterial tree was generated, which spread across the myocardium of the left and right ventricles. The 3D coronary arterial tree model was then extended to 4D to simulate different cardiac phases by deforming the original 3D model according to the motion vector map of the 4D cardiac model of the XCAT phantom at the corresponding phases. As a result, a detailed and realistic 4D model of the coronary arterial tree was developed for the XCAT phantom by imposing constraints of anatomical and physiological characteristics of the coronary vasculature. This new 4D coronary artery tree model provides a unique simulation tool that can be

  13. Development of a model of the coronary arterial tree for the 4D XCAT phantom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fung, George S. K.; Segars, W. Paul; Gullberg, Grant T.; Tsui, Benjamin M. W.

    2011-09-01

    A detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the coronary artery tree with cardiac motion has great potential for applications in a wide variety of medical imaging research areas. In this work, we first developed a computer-generated 3D model of the coronary arterial tree for the heart in the extended cardiac-torso (XCAT) phantom, thereby creating a realistic computer model of the human anatomy. The coronary arterial tree model was based on two datasets: (1) a gated cardiac dual-source computed tomography (CT) angiographic dataset obtained from a normal human subject and (2) statistical morphometric data of porcine hearts. The initial proximal segments of the vasculature and the anatomical details of the boundaries of the ventricles were defined by segmenting the CT data. An iterative rule-based generation method was developed and applied to extend the coronary arterial tree beyond the initial proximal segments. The algorithm was governed by three factors: (1) statistical morphometric measurements of the connectivity, lengths and diameters of the arterial segments; (2) avoidance forces from other vessel segments and the boundaries of the myocardium, and (3) optimality principles which minimize the drag force at the bifurcations of the generated tree. Using this algorithm, the 3D computational model of the largest six orders of the coronary arterial tree was generated, which spread across the myocardium of the left and right ventricles. The 3D coronary arterial tree model was then extended to 4D to simulate different cardiac phases by deforming the original 3D model according to the motion vector map of the 4D cardiac model of the XCAT phantom at the corresponding phases. As a result, a detailed and realistic 4D model of the coronary arterial tree was developed for the XCAT phantom by imposing constraints of anatomical and physiological characteristics of the coronary vasculature. This new 4D coronary artery tree model provides a unique simulation tool that can be

  14. Benchmarking energy scenarios for China: perspectives from top-down, economic and bottom-up, technical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This study uses a soft-linking methodology to harmonise two complex global top-down and bottom-up models with a regional China focus. The baseline follows the GDP and demographic trends of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP2) scenario, down-scaled for China, while the carbon tax scenario fol......-specific modelling results further. These new sub-regional China features can now be used for a more detailed analysis of China's regional developments in a global context....

  15. Assessing carbon stocks and modelling win-win scenarios of carbon sequestration through land-use changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ponce-Hernandez, R.; Koohafkan, P.; Antoine, J. (eds.)

    2004-07-01

    This publication presents a methodology and software tools for assessing carbon stocks and modelling scenarios of carbon sequestration that were developed and tested in pilot field studies in Mexico and Cuba. The models and tools enable the analysis of land use change scenarios in order to identify in a given area (watershed or district) land use alternatives and land management practices that simultaneously maximize food production, maximize soil carbon sequestration, maximize biodiversity conservation and minimize land degradation. The objective is to develop and implement 'win-win' options that satisfy the multiple goals of farmers, land users and other stakeholders in relation to food security, carbon sequestration, biodiversity and land conservation.

  16. Environmental assessment of amine-based carbon capture Scenario modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brekke, Andreas; Askham, Cecilia; Modahl, Ingunn Saur; Vold, Bjoern Ivar; Johnsen, Fredrik Moltu

    2012-07-01

    This report contains a first attempt at introducing the environmental impacts associated with amines and derivatives in a life cycle assessment (LCA) of gas power production with carbon capture and comparing these with other environmental impacts associated with the production system. The report aims to identify data gaps and methodological challenges connected both to modelling toxicity of amines and derivatives and weighting of environmental impacts. A scenario based modelling exercise was performed on a theoretical gas power plant with carbon capture, where emission levels of nitrosamines were varied between zero (gas power without CCS) to a worst case level (outside the probable range of actual carbon capture facilities). Because of extensive research and development in the areas of solvents and emissions from carbon capture facilities in the latter years, data used in the exercise may be outdated and results should therefore not be taken at face value.The results from the exercise showed: According to UseTox, emissions of nitrosamines are less important than emissions of formaldehyde with regard to toxicity related to operation of (i.e. both inputs to and outputs from) a carbon capture facility. If characterisation factors for emissions of metals are included, these outweigh all other toxic emissions in the study. None of the most recent weighting methods in LCA include characterisation factors for nitrosamines, and these are therefore not part of the environmental ranking.These results shows that the EDecIDe project has an important role to play in developing LCA methodology useful for assessing the environmental performance of amine based carbon capture in particular and CCS in general. The EDecIDe project will examine the toxicity models used in LCA in more detail, specifically UseTox. The applicability of the LCA compartment models and site specificity issues for a Norwegian/Arctic situation will be explored. This applies to the environmental compartments

  17. Interactive, open source, travel time scenario modelling: tools to facilitate participation in health service access analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Rohan; Lassa, Jonatan

    2017-04-18

    Modelling travel time to services has become a common public health tool for planning service provision but the usefulness of these analyses is constrained by the availability of accurate input data and limitations inherent in the assumptions and parameterisation. This is particularly an issue in the developing world where access to basic data is limited and travel is often complex and multi-modal. Improving the accuracy and relevance in this context requires greater accessibility to, and flexibility in, travel time modelling tools to facilitate the incorporation of local knowledge and the rapid exploration of multiple travel scenarios. The aim of this work was to develop simple open source, adaptable, interactive travel time modelling tools to allow greater access to and participation in service access analysis. Described are three interconnected applications designed to reduce some of the barriers to the more wide-spread use of GIS analysis of service access and allow for complex spatial and temporal variations in service availability. These applications are an open source GIS tool-kit and two geo-simulation models. The development of these tools was guided by health service issues from a developing world context but they present a general approach to enabling greater access to and flexibility in health access modelling. The tools demonstrate a method that substantially simplifies the process for conducting travel time assessments and demonstrate a dynamic, interactive approach in an open source GIS format. In addition this paper provides examples from empirical experience where these tools have informed better policy and planning. Travel and health service access is complex and cannot be reduced to a few static modeled outputs. The approaches described in this paper use a unique set of tools to explore this complexity, promote discussion and build understanding with the goal of producing better planning outcomes. The accessible, flexible, interactive and

  18. Characterisation, modelling and control of advanced scenarios in the european tokamak jet; Caracterisation, modelisation et controle des scenarios avances dans le tokamak europeen jet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tresset, G

    2002-09-26

    The advanced scenarios, developed for less than ten years with the internal transport barriers and the control of current profile, give rise to a 'new deal' for the tokamak as a future thermonuclear controlled fusion reactor. The Joint European Torus (JET) in United Kingdom is presently the most powerful device in terms of fusion power and it has allowed to acquire a great experience in these improved confinement regimes. The reduction of turbulent transport, considered now as closely linked to the shape of current profile optimised for instance by lower hybrid current drive or the self-generated bootstrap current, can be characterised by a dimensionless criterion. Most of useful information related to the transport barriers are thus available. Large database analysis and real time plasma control are envisaged as attractive applications. The so-called 'S'-shaped transport models exhibit some interesting properties in fair agreement with the experiments, while the non-linear multivariate dependencies of thermal diffusivity can be approximated by a neural network, suggesting a new approach for transport investigation and modelling. Finally, the first experimental demonstrations of real time control of internal transport barriers and current profile have been performed on JET. Sophisticated feedback algorithms have been proposed and are being numerically tested to achieve steady-state and efficient plasmas. (author)

  19. Exact finite-size corrections for the spanning-tree model under different boundary conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izmailian, N. Sh.; Kenna, R.

    2015-02-01

    We express the partition functions of the spanning tree on finite square lattices under five different sets of boundary conditions in terms of a principal partition function with twisted-boundary conditions. Based on these expressions, we derive the exact asymptotic expansions of the logarithm of the partition function for each case. We have also established several groups of identities relating spanning-tree partition functions for the different boundary conditions. We also explain an apparent discrepancy between logarithmic correction terms in the free energy for a two-dimensional spanning-tree model with periodic and free-boundary conditions and conformal field theory predictions. We have obtained corner free energy for the spanning tree under free-boundary conditions in full agreement with conformal field theory predictions.

  20. Dynamics of microparticles in vacuum breakdown: Cranberg’s scenario updated by numerical modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Seznec

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Microparticles (MP and thermofield emission in vacuum are mainly caused by the roughness present at the surface of electrodes holding a high voltage. They can act as a trigger for breakdown, especially under high vacuum. This theoretical study discusses the interactions between one MP and the thermofield emission electron current as well as the consequences on the MP’s transit. Starting from Cranberg’s assumptions, new phenomena have been taken into account such as MP charge variation due to the secondary electron emission induced by energetic electron bombardment. Hence, the present model can be solved only numerically. Four scenarios have been identified based on the results, depending on the electron emission current from the cathode roughness (tip and the size of the MP released at the anode, namely (i one way; (ii back and forth; (iii oscillation; and (iv vaporization. A crash study of the MP on the cathode shows that the electron emission can decrease if the MP covers the thermoemissive tip, i.e., if the MP is larger than the tip size—a phenomenon often called “conditioning”—and helping to increase the voltage holding in vacuum without breakdown.

  1. a Novel Methodology for Developing Inundation Maps Under Climate Change Scenarios Using One-Dimensional Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.; Raghavan, V. S.; Liew, S. C.

    2011-07-01

    Climate change is expected to cause increases in extreme climatic events such as heavy rainstorms and rising tidal level. Heavy rainstorms are known to be serious causes of flooding problems in big cities. Thus, high density residential and commercial areas along the rivers are facing risks of being flooded. For that reason, inundated area determination is now being considered as one of the most important areas of research focus in flood forecasting. In such a context, this paper presents the development of a floodmap in determining flood-prone areas and its volumes. The areas and volumes of flood are computed by the inundated level using the existing digital elevation model (DEM) of a hypothetical catchment chosen for study. The study focuses on the application of Flood Early Warning System (Delft — FEWS, Deltares), which is designated to work with the SOBEK (Delft) to simulate the extent of stormwater on the ground surface. The results from FEWS consist of time-series of inundation maps in Image file format (PNG) and ASCII format, which are subsequently imported to ArcGIS for further calculations. In addition, FEWS results provide options to export the video clip of water spreading out over the catchment. Consequently, inundated area and volume will be determined by the water level on the ground. Final floodmap is displayed in colors created by ArcGIS. Various flood map results corresponding to climate change scenarios will be displayed in the main part of the paper.

  2. Stimulating seedling growth in early stages of secondary forest succession: a modeling approach to guide tree liberation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marijke van Kuijk

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Excessive growth of non-woody plants and shrubs on degraded lands can strongly hamper tree growth and thus secondary forest succession. A common method to accelerate succession, called liberation, involves opening up the vegetation canopy around young target trees. This can increase growth of target trees by reducing competition for light with neighboring plants. However, liberation has not always the desired effect, likely due to differences in light requirement between tree species. Here we present a 3D-model, which calculates photosynthetic rate of individual trees in a vegetation stand. It enables us to examine how stature, crown structure and physiological traits of target trees and characteristics of the surrounding vegetation together determine effects of light on tree growth. The model was applied to a liberation experiment conducted with three pioneer species in a young secondary forest in Vietnam. Species responded differently to the treatment depending on their height, crown structure and their shade-tolerance level. Model simulations revealed practical thresholds over which the tree growth response is heavily influenced by the height and density of surrounding vegetation and gap radius. There were strong correlations between calculated photosynthetic rates and observed growth: the model was well able to predict growth of trees in young forests and the effects of liberation there upon. Thus our model serves as a useful tool to analyze light competition between young trees and surrounding vegetation and may help assess the potential effect of tree liberation.

  3. Stimulating seedling growth in early stages of secondary forest succession: a modeling approach to guide tree liberation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Kuijk, Marijke; Anten, Niels P R; Oomen, Roelof J; Schieving, Feike

    2014-01-01

    Excessive growth of non-woody plants and shrubs on degraded lands can strongly hamper tree growth and thus secondary forest succession. A common method to accelerate succession, called liberation, involves opening up the vegetation canopy around young target trees. This can increase growth of target trees by reducing competition for light with neighboring plants. However, liberation has not always had the desired effect, likely due to differences in light requirement between tree species. Here we present a 3D-model, which calculates photosynthetic rate of individual trees in a vegetation stand. It enables us to examine how stature, crown structure, and physiological traits of target trees and characteristics of the surrounding vegetation together determine effects of light on tree growth. The model was applied to a liberation experiment conducted with three pioneer species in a young secondary forest in Vietnam. Species responded differently to the treatment depending on their height, crown structure and their shade-tolerance level. Model simulations revealed practical thresholds over which the tree growth response is heavily influenced by the height and density of surrounding vegetation and gap radius. There were strong correlations between calculated photosynthetic rates and observed growth: the model was well able to predict growth of trees in young forests and the effects of liberation there upon. Thus, our model serves as a useful tool to analyze light competition between young trees and surrounding vegetation and may help assess the potential effect of tree liberation.

  4. Evaluation of an urban canopy model in a tropical city: the role of tree evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuan; Li, Xian-Xiang; Harshan, Suraj; Roth, Matthias; Velasco, Erik

    2017-09-01

    A single layer urban canopy model (SLUCM) with enhanced hydrologic processes, is evaluated in a tropical city, Singapore. The evaluation was performed using an 11 month offline simulation with the coupled Noah land surface model/SLUCM over a compact low-rise residential area. Various hydrological processes are considered, including anthropogenic latent heat release, and evaporation from impervious urban facets. Results show that the prediction of energy fluxes, in particular latent heat flux, is improved when these processes were included. However, the simulated latent heat flux is still underestimated by ∼40%. Considering Singapore’s high green cover ratio, the tree evapotranspiration process is introduced into the model, which significantly improves the simulated latent heat flux. In particular, the systematic error of the model is greatly reduced, and becomes lower than the unsystematic error in some seasons. The effect of tree evapotranspiration on the urban surface energy balance is further demonstrated during an unusual dry spell. The present study demonstrates that even at sites with relatively low (11%) tree coverage, ignoring evapotranspiration from trees may cause serious underestimation of the latent heat flux and atmospheric humidity. The improved model is also transferable to other tropical or temperate regions to study the impact of tree evapotranspiration on urban climate.

  5. Capturing spiral radial growth of conifers using the superellipse to model tree-ring geometric shape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pei-Jian eShi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Tree-rings are often assumed to approximate a circular shape when estimating forest productivity and carbon dynamics. However, tree rings are rarely, if ever, circular, thereby possibly resulting in under- or over-estimation in forest productivity and carbon sequestration. Given the crucial role played by tree ring data in assessing forest productivity and carbon storage within a context of global change, it is particularly important that mathematical models adequately render cross-sectional area increment derived from tree rings. We modelled the geometric shape of tree rings using the superellipse equation and checked its validation based on the theoretical simulation and six actual cross sections collected from three conifers. We found that the superellipse better describes the geometric shape of tree rings than the circle commonly used. We showed that a spiral growth trend exists on the radial section over time, which might be closely related to spiral grain along the longitudinal axis. The superellipse generally had higher accuracy than the circle in predicting the basal area increment, resulting in an improved estimate for the basal area. The superellipse may allow better assessing forest productivity and carbon storage in terrestrial forest ecosystems.

  6. Modeled effects of an improved building insulation scenario in Europe on air pollution, health and societal costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bønløkke, Jakob Hjort; Holst, Gitte Juel; Sigsgaard, Torben

    2015-01-01

    Background: In Europe a substantial share of the energy supply is used for domestic heating and cooling. The quality of building insulation thus significantly impacts air pollution. Objectives: To model the effects of an improved building insulation scenario in Europe on air pollution levels...... and the resulting effects on health and economy. Methods: Projected energy savings between 2005 and 2020 were calculated for an improved building insulation scenario and a business as usual scenario. The resulting changes in emissions (e.g. from power plants) were used in the Comprehensive Air-Quality Model...... with extensions. Mean annual changes in the main air pollutants were derived for each country. World Health Organization (WHO) and European Union (EU) data on populations and on impacts of pollutants were used to derive health effects and costs. Effects on indoor air quality were not assessed. Results: Projected...

  7. Allometric Scaling and Resource Limitations Model of Tree Heights: Part 3. Model Optimization and Testing over Continental China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiliang Ni

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The ultimate goal of our multi-article series is to demonstrate the Allometric Scaling and Resource Limitation (ASRL approach for mapping tree heights and biomass. This third article tests the feasibility of the optimized ASRL model over China at both site (14 meteorological stations and continental scales. Tree heights from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS waveform data are used for the model optimizations. Three selected ASRL parameters (area of single leaf, α; exponent for canopy radius, η; and root absorption efficiency, γ are iteratively adjusted to minimize differences between the references and predicted tree heights. Key climatic variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation are needed for the model simulations. We also exploit the independent GLAS and in situ tree heights to examine the model performance. The predicted tree heights at the site scale are evaluated against the GLAS tree heights using a two-fold cross validation (RMSE = 1.72 m; R2 = 0.97 and bootstrapping (RMSE = 4.39 m; R2 = 0.81. The modeled tree heights at the continental scale (1 km spatial resolution are compared to both GLAS (RMSE = 6.63 m; R2 = 0.63 and in situ (RMSE = 6.70 m; R2 = 0.52 measurements. Further, inter-comparisons against the existing satellite-based forest height maps have resulted in a moderate degree of agreements. Our results show that the optimized ASRL model is capable of satisfactorily retrieving tree heights over continental China at both scales. Subsequent studies will focus on the estimation of woody biomass after alleviating the discussed limitations.

  8. Risk Modelling of Late Spring Frost Damage on Fruit Trees, Case Study; Apple Tree, Mashhad Plain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Rahimi

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Mashhad plain is one of the most important regions of Apple cultivated areas. Occurring spring late frost creates a lot of damages on bud and decreasing the yield of Apple in this region. Assessment and risk modeling of frost damage would be useful to manage and decrease the damage. The study area is a part of Khorasan Razavi province which is located in Mashhad plain. This region is located in Northeast Iran (36º to 37 º N, 58 º 30' to 60 º E. The area of this region is about 13000 square km which is about one tenth of Khorasan province area. In order to modeling frost damage risk 12 affective parameters including climatological(Minimum temperature, temperature decreasing rate, temperature Increasing rate, Julian days of frost, cumulative degree days, Area under zero line, and frost duration and geographical parameters (Elevation, Longitude, Latitude, Aspect, and slope were selected. 3 damage full radiative frosts were selected in the period of Apple flowering time which was dated 20 April 2003, 8 April 2005, and 28 March 2005. Required meteorological data were collected from 9 meteorological standard stations inside and outside of study area. Linear multiple regression were used to modeling the relationship. The map for each parameter was plotted by using suitable interpolation method including IDW; Spline; Kriging. A grid map was defined with 5 by 5 kilometers to extract enough data for entering to the model. The regression equation was significant at the level of 99% significance. By using this equation the predicted amounts of frost risk damage were calculated for each point of grid and also the map was plotted. The regression equation of observed and predicted frost damage risk was provided by correlation of 0.93 and the error map also was prepared. According to this study in frost of 31 Farvardin 1388 South West parts of the plain estimated as the most frost risk areas by %53.19 and the southeast parts were estimated as the least

  9. The energy policy turnaround and the respective models. The prognostic ability of energy scenarios; Die Energiewende und ihre Modelle. Was uns Energieszenarien sagen koennen - und was nicht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dieckhoff, Christian; Leuschner, Anna (eds.)

    2016-07-01

    The booklet on energy scenarios in the frame of the energy policy turnaround includes the following contributions: How many scenarios do we need? The justification of relevant possibilities using idealized models; the underestimation of the climatic change; the burden of the possible achievable; wrong conclusions in the argumentation with scenarios; epistemic meta-analysis.

  10. Improved allometric models to estimate the aboveground biomass of tropical trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chave, Jérôme; Réjou-Méchain, Maxime; Búrquez, Alberto; Chidumayo, Emmanuel; Colgan, Matthew S; Delitti, Welington B C; Duque, Alvaro; Eid, Tron; Fearnside, Philip M; Goodman, Rosa C; Henry, Matieu; Martínez-Yrízar, Angelina; Mugasha, Wilson A; Muller-Landau, Helene C; Mencuccini, Maurizio; Nelson, Bruce W; Ngomanda, Alfred; Nogueira, Euler M; Ortiz-Malavassi, Edgar; Pélissier, Raphaël; Ploton, Pierre; Ryan, Casey M; Saldarriaga, Juan G; Vieilledent, Ghislain

    2014-10-01

    Terrestrial carbon stock mapping is important for the successful implementation of climate change mitigation policies. Its accuracy depends on the availability of reliable allometric models to infer oven-dry aboveground biomass of trees from census data. The degree of uncertainty associated with previously published pantropical aboveground biomass allometries is large. We analyzed a global database of directly harvested trees at 58 sites, spanning a wide range of climatic conditions and vegetation types (4004 trees ≥ 5 cm trunk diameter). When trunk diameter, total tree height, and wood specific gravity were included in the aboveground biomass model as covariates, a single model was found to hold across tropical vegetation types, with no detectable effect of region or environmental factors. The mean percent bias and variance of this model was only slightly higher than that of locally fitted models. Wood specific gravity was an important predictor of aboveground biomass, especially when including a much broader range of vegetation types than previous studies. The generic tree diameter-height relationship depended linearly on a bioclimatic stress variable E, which compounds indices of temperature variability, precipitation variability, and drought intensity. For cases in which total tree height is unavailable for aboveground biomass estimation, a pantropical model incorporating wood density, trunk diameter, and the variable E outperformed previously published models without height. However, to minimize bias, the development of locally derived diameter-height relationships is advised whenever possible. Both new allometric models should contribute to improve the accuracy of biomass assessment protocols in tropical vegetation types, and to advancing our understanding of architectural and evolutionary constraints on woody plant development. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Scarborough

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Noncommunicable disease (NCD scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed.

  12. Coupled 0D-1D CFD Modeling of Right Heart and Pulmonary Artery Morphometry Tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Melody; Yang, Weiguang; Feinstein, Jeffrey A.; Marsden, Alison

    2017-11-01

    Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is characterized by elevated pulmonary artery (PA) pressure and remodeling of the distal PAs resulting in right ventricular (RV) dysfunction and failure. It is hypothesized that patients with untreated ventricular septal defects (VSD) may develop PAH due to elevated flows and pressures in the PAs. Wall shear stress (WSS), due to elevated flows, and circumferential stress, due to elevated pressures, are known to play a role in vascular mechanobiology. Thus, simulating VSD hemodynamics and wall mechanics may facilitate our understanding of mechanical stimuli leading to PAH initiation and progression. Although 3D CFD models can capture detailed hemodynamics in the proximal PAs, they cannot easily model hemodynamics and wave propagation in the distal PAs, where remodeling occurs. To improve current PA models, we will present a new method that couples distal PA hemodynamics with RV function. Our model couples a 0D lumped parameter model of the RV to a 1D model of the PA tree, based on human PA morphometry data, to characterize RV performance and WSS changes in the PA tree. We will compare a VSD 0D-1D model and a 0D-3D model coupled to a mathematical morphometry tree model to quantify WSS in the entire PA vascular tree.

  13. A Two-State Model of Tree Evolution and its Applications to Alu Retrotransposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moshiri, Niema; Mirarab, Siavash

    2017-11-20

    Models of tree evolution have mostly focused on capturing the cladogenesis processes behind speciation. Processes that derive the evolution of genomic elements, such as repeats, are not necessarily captured by these existing models. In this paper, we design a model of tree evolution that we call the dual-birth model, and we show how it can be useful in studying the evolution of short Alu repeats found in the human genome in abundance. The dual-birth model extends the traditional birth- only model to have two rates of propagation, one for active nodes that propagate often, and another for inactive nodes, that with a lower rate, activate and start propagating. Adjusting the ratio of the rates controls the expected tree balance. We present several theoretical results under the dual-birth model, introduce parameter estimation techniques, and study the properties of the model in simulations. We then use the dual-birth model to estimate the number of active Alu elements and their rates of propagation and activation in the human genome based on a large phylogenetic tree that we build from close to one million Alu sequences. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hirschi

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology, depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980–2009 and 2045–2074 time periods climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045–2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern

  15. Stochastic juvenile--adult models with application to a green tree frog population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackleh, Azmy S; Deng, Keng; Huang, Qihua

    2011-01-01

    We derive several stochastic models from a deterministic population model that describes the dynamics of age-structured juveniles coupled with size-structured adults. Numerical simulation results of the stochastic models are compared with the solution of the deterministic model. These models are then used to understand the effect of demographic stochasticity on the dynamics of an urban green tree frog (Hyla cinerea) population.

  16. Tracing and modelling water and sediment dynamics in a conventional irrigated bed system under different scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzmán, Gema; Laguna, Ana; Cañasveras, Juan Carlos; Boulal, Hakim; Gómez-Macpherson, Helena; Barrón, Vidal; Giráldez, Juan Vicente; Gómez, José Alfonso

    2013-04-01

    Water erosion is a threat to the future of southern Spain agriculture, even in the more controlled irrigated agricultural systems, which requires more precise information to establish rational soil and water conservation strategies. This report describes the application of three iron oxides (magnetite, hematite and goethite) as tracers in several experiments in a furrow irrigated-cotton cropland and the use of an erosion model, KINEROS2 to sediment data obtained during an erosion experiment with different soil management options. The bed system with cotton planted on the top of the furrows was irrigated in July 2009 using sprinklers. The selected plot consisted of ten furrows under conventional management. The sprinkler irrigation had an intensity of 18 mm/h during 9 hours, when the cotton crop covered the 50 % of soil surface. Each furrow was divided in three sections (upper, medium, and lower) of 2.9 m2. The first 2 cm of each section was tagged using a different iron oxide. Among tagged sections, areas of 10.3 m2 without any tracer were left. More details of the experiment design can be found in Guzmán 2012. Soil samples before and after the rainfall simulations were collected as well as sediment samples during the irrigation. Experimental data were used to calibrate and validate an erosion model: KINEROS2 that gives information about total runoff and total soil losses along the furrow-shoulder system. Calibration of the model was made considering wheel traffic in the corresponding furrows. Once identified the model parameters with the water and sediment yield data KINEROS2 was used to generate data for a combination of possible scenarios. The results evaluate the combined use of three iron oxides as unexpensive sediment tracers that can provide additional information to the traditional measurements in water erosion experiments with model analysis. The results provide insight on the influence of slopes, lengths and crop covered fractions, helpful for improving

  17. Title:Evaluation of Optimal Water Allocation Scenarios for Bar River of NeishabourUsing WEAP Model Under A2 Climatic Changes Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gh. Ghandhari

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The rapid population growth in Iran and the corresponding increases in water demands, including drinking water, industry, agriculture and urban development and existing constraints necessitate optimal scheduling necessity in use of this crucial source. Furthermore, the phenomenon of climate change as a major challenge for humanity can be considered in future periods. Climate change is caused by human activity have also been identified as significant causes of recent climate change, referred to as "global warming". Climate change indicates an unusual change in the Earth's atmosphere and climate consequences of the different parts of planet Earth. Climate change may refer to a change in average weather conditions, or in the time variation of weather around longer-term average conditions. A Warmer climate exacerbates the hydrologic cycle, altering precipitation, magnitude and timing of runoff. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change on water consumption and demand in Bar river basin of Neighbor. Climate change affects precipitation and temperature patterns and hence, may alter on water requirements and demand at three sectors; agriculture, industry and urban water. Materials and Methods: At present, Global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs are the most frequently used models for projection of different climatic change scenarios. AOGCMs models represent the pinnacle of complexity in climate models and internalize as many processes as possible. These models are based on physical laws that are provided by mathematical relations. AOGCMs models used for climate studies and climate forecast are run at coarse spatial resolution and are unable to resolve important sub-grid scale features such as clouds and topography. As a result AOGCMs output cannot be used for local impact studies. Therefore, downscaling methods were developed to obtain local-scale weather and climate, particularly at

  18. The relative contributions of disease and insects in the decline of a long-lived tree: a stochastic demographic model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Erik S; Jackson, Jenell I.; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Beck, Jennifer S.; Murray, Michael P.; Sahara, E. April

    2016-01-01

    Pathogens and insect pests have become increasingly important drivers of tree mortality in forested ecosystems. Unfortunately, understanding the relative contributions of multiple mortality agents to the population decline of trees is difficult, because it requires frequent measures of tree survival, growth, and recruitment, as well as the incidence of mortality agents. We present a population model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), a high-elevation tree undergoing rapid decline in western North America. The loss of whitebark pine is thought to be primarily due to an invasive pathogen (white pine blister rust; Cronartium ribicola) and a native insect (mountain pine beetle; Dendroctonus ponderosae). We utilized seven plots in Crater Lake National Park (Oregon, USA) where 1220 trees were surveyed for health and the presence of blister rust and beetle activity annually from 2003–2014, except 2008. We constructed size-based projection matrices for nine years and calculated the deterministic growth rate (λ) using an average matrix and the stochastic growth rate (λs) by simulation for whitebark pine in our study population. We then assessed the roles of blister rust and beetles by calculating λ and λsusing matrices in which we removed trees with blister rust and, separately, trees with beetles. We also conducted life-table response experiments (LTRE) to determine which demographic changes contributed most to differences in λ between ambient conditions and the two other scenarios. The model suggests that whitebark pine in our plots are currently declining 1.1% per year (λ = 0.9888, λs = 0.9899). Removing blister rust from the models resulted in almost no increase in growth (λ = 0.9916, λs = 0.9930), while removing beetles resulted in a larger increase in growth (λ = 1.0028, λs = 1.0045). The LTRE demonstrated that reductions in stasis of the three largest size classes due to beetles contributed most to the smaller λ in the ambient condition

  19. Tree root systems competing for soil moisture in a 3D soil–plant model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriele Manoli; Sara Bonetti; Jean-Christophe Domec; Mario Putti; Gabriel Katul; Marco Marani

    2014-01-01

    Competition for water among multiple tree rooting systems is investigated using a soil–plant model that accounts for soil moisture dynamics and root water uptake (RWU), whole plant transpiration, and leaflevel photosynthesis. The model is based on a numerical solution to the 3D Richards equation modified to account for a 3D RWU, trunk xylem, and stomatal conductances....

  20. Behavior and sensitivity of an optimal tree diameter growth model under data uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Don C. Bragg

    2005-01-01

    Using loblolly pine, shortleaf pine, white oak, and northern red oak as examples, this paper considers the behavior of potential relative increment (PRI) models of optimal tree diameter growth under data uncertainity. Recommendations on intial sample size and the PRI iteractive curve fitting process are provided. Combining different state inventories prior to PRI model...

  1. On Julia Set and Chaos in p-adic Ising Model on the Cayley Tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhamedov, Farrukh; Khakimov, Otabek

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, we study the chaotic behavior of the p-adic Ising-Potts mapping associated with the p-adic Ising model on the Cayley tree. As an application of this result, we are able to show the existence of periodic (with any period) p-adic quasi Gibbs measures for the model.

  2. Tree injury and mortality in fires: developing process-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bret W. Butler; Matthew B. Dickinson

    2010-01-01

    Wildland fire managers are often required to predict tree injury and mortality when planning a prescribed burn or when considering wildfire management options; and, currently, statistical models based on post-fire observations are the only tools available for this purpose. Implicit in the derivation of statistical models is the assumption that they are strictly...

  3. A method for generating stochastic 3D tree models with Python in Autodesk Maya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nemanja Stojanović

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a method for generating 3D tree models using stochastic L-systems with stochastic parameters and Perlin noise. L-system is the most popular method for plant modeling and Perlin noise is extensively used for generating high detailed textures. Our approach is probabilistic. L-systems with a random choice of parameters can represent observed objects quite well and they are used for modeling and generating realistic plants. Textures and normal maps are generated with combinations of Perlin noises what make these trees completely unique. Script for generating these trees, textures and normal maps is written with Python/PyMEL/NumPy in Autodesk Maya.

  4. Analysis of climate change scenarios in an olive orchard microcatchment in Spain using the model WIMMED

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzmán, Enrique; Aguilar, Cristina; José Polo, María; Taguas, Encarnación V.

    2015-04-01

    Olive orchards constitute traditional systems in the Mediterranean Basin. In Andalusia, Southern Spain, more than 1.5Mha are dedicated to olive crop land use, which represent a production of 1Mt of olive oil per year. This is a strategic economic sector with environmental and social relevance. In the context of climate change in Andalusia, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has highlighted that an increase of temperatures and rainfall intensities as well as the reduction of cumulated rainfall might be expected. This may mean serious detrimental economic and environmental risks associated to floods and the reduction of available water resources which would be convenient to quantify. The objective of this work is to analyse the rainfall-runoff relationships in an olive orchard catchment by the application of the distributed hydrological model WIMMED (Herrero et al., 2009) simulating the effects of climate change, with a special emphasis on extreme events. Firstly, the model was calibrated and validated with 9 maximum annual events of a datasets from 2005-2012 obtained in an olive orchard catchment in Spain (Taguas et al., 2010). In this stage, only the saturated hydraulic conductivity and soil moisture in saturation were adjusted after a sensitivity analysis where 68 simulations were carried out. A good agreement was obtained between observed and simulated hydrographs. The mean errors and the root mean square errors were 0.18 mm and 2.19 mm for the calibration and 0.18 and 1.94 mm, for the validation. Finally, the catchment response to the increase of intensity and temperature and the reduction of cumulated rainfall were simulated for the maximum event of the series. The results showed a rise of 11% of the runoff coefficient quantifying the possible impact of climate change. REFERENCES Herrero J, Polo M., Moñino A., Losada MA (2009). An energy balance snowmelt model in a Mediterranean site. J. Hydrol. 371, pp. 98-107 Taguas EV, Peña A, Ayuso JL, Yuan Y

  5. Computable general equilibrium modelling of economic impacts from volcanic event scenarios at regional and national scale, Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, G. W.; Cronin, S. J.; Kim, J.-H.; Smith, N. J.; Murray, C. A.; Procter, J. N.

    2017-12-01

    The economic impacts of volcanism extend well beyond the direct costs of loss of life and asset damage. This paper presents one of the first attempts to assess the economic consequences of disruption associated with volcanic impacts at a range of temporal and spatial scales using multi-regional and dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling. Based on the last decade of volcanic research findings at Mt. Taranaki, three volcanic event scenarios (Tahurangi, Inglewood and Opua) differentiated by critical physical thresholds were generated. In turn, the corresponding disruption economic impacts were calculated for each scenario. Under the Tahurangi scenario (annual probability of 0.01-0.02), a small-scale explosive (Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 2-3) and dome forming eruption, the economic impacts were negligible with complete economic recovery experienced within a year. The larger Inglewood sub-Plinian to Plinian eruption scenario event (VEI > 4, annualised probability of 0.003) produced significant impacts on the Taranaki region economy of 207 million (representing 4.0% of regional gross domestic product (GDP) 1 year after the event, 2007 New Zealand dollars), that will take around 5 years to recover. The Opua scenario, the largest magnitude volcanic hazard modelled, is a major flank collapse and debris avalanche event with an annual probability of 0.00018. The associated economic impacts of this scenario were 397 million (representing 7.7% of regional GDP 1 year after the event) with the Taranaki region economy suffering permanent structural changes. Our dynamic analysis illustrates that different economic impacts play out at different stages in a volcanic crisis. We also discuss the key strengths and weaknesses of our modelling along with potential extensions.

  6. Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Posch

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically feasible reductions (MFR. Future climate (temperature and precipitation was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2. The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change. Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.

  7. A multi-model ensemble of downscaled spatial climate change scenarios for the Dommel catchment, Western Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, M.T.H. van; Blenkinsop, S.; Burton, A.; Harpham, C.; Broers, H.P.; Fowler, H.J.

    2012-01-01

    Regional or local scale hydrological impact studies require high resolution climate change scenarios which should incorporate some assessment of uncertainties in future climate projections. This paper describes a method used to produce a multi-model ensemble of multivariate weather simulations

  8. Adding natural disturbances to a large-scale forest scenario model and a case study for Switzerland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schelhaas, M.J.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Sonntag, M.; Pussinen, A.

    2002-01-01

    In this study we assessed the impact of climate change and the role of natural disturbances on the development of forest resources. A module dealing with natural disturbances was developed for the European forest information scenario model (EFISCEN), based on the observed distribution of damages in

  9. Model-based scenario planning to develop climate change adaptation strategies for rare plant populations in grassland reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laura Phillips-Mao; Susan M. Galatowitsch; Stephanie A. Snyder; Robert G. Haight

    2016-01-01

    Incorporating climate change into conservation decision-making at site and population scales is challenging due to uncertainties associated with localized climate change impacts and population responses to multiple interacting impacts and adaptation strategies. We explore the use of spatially explicit population models to facilitate scenario analysis, a conservation...

  10. Path Loss, Shadow Fading, and Line-Of-Sight Probability Models for 5G Urban Macro-Cellular Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sun, Shu; Thomas, Timothy; Rappaport, Theodore S.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents key parameters including the line-of-sight (LOS) probability, large-scale path loss, and shadow fading models for the design of future fifth generation (5G) wireless communication systems in urban macro-cellular (UMa) scenarios, using the data obtained from propagation measure...

  11. Modeling the effects of tree species and incubation temperature on soil's extracellular enzyme activity in 78-year-old tree plantations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xiaoqi; Wang, Shen S. J.; Chen, Chengrong

    2017-12-01

    Forest plantations have been widely used as an effective measure for increasing soil carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) stocks and soil enzyme activities play a key role in soil C and N losses during decomposition of soil organic matter. However, few studies have been carried out to elucidate the mechanisms behind the differences in soil C and N cycling by different tree species in response to climate warming. Here, we measured the responses of soil's extracellular enzyme activity (EEA) to a gradient of temperatures using incubation methods in 78-year-old forest plantations with different tree species. Based on a soil enzyme kinetics model, we established a new statistical model to investigate the effects of temperature and tree species on soil EEA. In addition, we established a tree species-enzyme-C/N model to investigate how temperature and tree species influence soil C/N contents over time without considering plant C inputs. These extracellular enzymes included C acquisition enzymes (β-glucosidase, BG), N acquisition enzymes (N-acetylglucosaminidase, NAG; leucine aminopeptidase, LAP) and phosphorus acquisition enzymes (acid phosphatases). The results showed that incubation temperature and tree species significantly influenced all soil EEA and Eucalyptus had 1.01-2.86 times higher soil EEA than coniferous tree species. Modeling showed that Eucalyptus had larger soil C losses but had 0.99-2.38 times longer soil C residence time than the coniferous tree species over time. The differences in the residual soil C and N contents between Eucalyptus and coniferous tree species, as well as between slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm. var. elliottii) and hoop pine (Araucaria cunninghamii Ait.), increase with time. On the other hand, the modeling results help explain why exotic slash pine can grow faster, as it has 1.22-1.38 times longer residual soil N residence time for LAP, which mediate soil N cycling in the long term, than native coniferous tree species like hoop pine and

  12. Modeling the effects of tree species and incubation temperature on soil's extracellular enzyme activity in 78-year-old tree plantations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Zhou

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Forest plantations have been widely used as an effective measure for increasing soil carbon (C, and nitrogen (N stocks and soil enzyme activities play a key role in soil C and N losses during decomposition of soil organic matter. However, few studies have been carried out to elucidate the mechanisms behind the differences in soil C and N cycling by different tree species in response to climate warming. Here, we measured the responses of soil's extracellular enzyme activity (EEA to a gradient of temperatures using incubation methods in 78-year-old forest plantations with different tree species. Based on a soil enzyme kinetics model, we established a new statistical model to investigate the effects of temperature and tree species on soil EEA. In addition, we established a tree species–enzyme–C∕N model to investigate how temperature and tree species influence soil C∕N contents over time without considering plant C inputs. These extracellular enzymes included C acquisition enzymes (β-glucosidase, BG, N acquisition enzymes (N-acetylglucosaminidase, NAG; leucine aminopeptidase, LAP and phosphorus acquisition enzymes (acid phosphatases. The results showed that incubation temperature and tree species significantly influenced all soil EEA and Eucalyptus had 1.01–2.86 times higher soil EEA than coniferous tree species. Modeling showed that Eucalyptus had larger soil C losses but had 0.99–2.38 times longer soil C residence time than the coniferous tree species over time. The differences in the residual soil C and N contents between Eucalyptus and coniferous tree species, as well as between slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm. var. elliottii and hoop pine (Araucaria cunninghamii Ait., increase with time. On the other hand, the modeling results help explain why exotic slash pine can grow faster, as it has 1.22–1.38 times longer residual soil N residence time for LAP, which mediate soil N cycling in the long term, than native

  13. Developing and Assessing Alternative Land-Use Scenarios from the MOLAND Model: A Scenario-Based Impact Analysis Approach for the Evaluation of Rapid Rail Provisions and Urban Development in the Greater Dublin Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eda Ustaoglu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, environmental sustainability implications of planned rail infrastructure investments on the urban form and development in the Greater Dublin Region (GDR have been analysed incorporating the scenario analysis approach. Various scenarios are developed using the MOLAND Model applications including: A baseline scenario incorporating a continuation of the present dispersed pattern of urban development and an alternative scenario with rail-oriented corridor development, under varying conditions of economic growth. An alternative scenario was also developed for the recessionary development case considering the prolonged recession in the GDR. Further explorations incorporating a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA approach are developed to evaluate the sustainability implications of different land development scenarios in the Dublin Region. This is assisted by focussing on the impacts of rail investments on urban form and development as raised in the international comparative literature. The findings from the CBA assessment positively indicate that containment policies-as represented by the public transport oriented development indicate benefits over the dispersed development case by reducing the negative consequences of sprawl type of developments. In contrast, dispersed development in the baseline scenario indicates costs of continuation of such development patterns exceed the benefits in the long term. This study will contribute to policy support evaluation measures relating to the integration of scenario analysis tool with the CBA approach in assisting the evaluation of new transport infrastructure proposals.

  14. Event and fault tree model for reliability analysis of the greek research reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Albuquerque, Tob R.; Guimaraes, Antonio C.F.; Moreira, Maria de Lourdes, E-mail: atalbuquerque@ien.gov.br, E-mail: btony@ien.gov.br, E-mail: malu@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Fault trees and event trees are widely used in industry to model and to evaluate the reliability of safety systems. Detailed analyzes in nuclear installations require the combination of these two techniques. This work uses the methods of fault tree (FT) and event tree (ET) to perform the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) in research reactors. The PSA according to IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) is divided into Level 1, Level 2 and level 3. At Level 1, conceptually safety systems act to prevent the accident, at Level 2, the accident occurred and seeks to minimize the consequences, known as stage management of the accident, and at Level 3 are determined consequences. This paper focuses on Level 1 studies, and searches through the acquisition of knowledge consolidation of methodologies for future reliability studies. The Greek Research Reactor, GRR - 1, was used as a case example. The LOCA (Loss of Coolant Accident) was chosen as the initiating event and from there were developed the possible accident sequences, using event tree, which could lead damage to the core. Furthermore, for each of the affected systems, the possible accidents sequences were made fault tree and evaluated the probability of each event top of the FT. The studies were conducted using a commercial computational tool SAPHIRE. The results thus obtained, performance or failure to act of the systems analyzed were considered satisfactory. This work is directed to the Greek Research Reactor due to data availability. (author)

  15. Goal-Function Tree Modeling for Systems Engineering and Fault Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Jonathan D.; Johnson, Stephen B.

    2013-01-01

    provide formal connectivity between the nominal (SE), and off-nominal (SHM and FM) aspects of functions and designs. This paper describes a formal modeling approach to the initial phases of the development process that integrates the nominal and off-nominal perspectives in a model that unites SE goals and functions of with the failure to achieve goals and functions (SHM/FM). This methodology and corresponding model, known as a Goal-Function Tree (GFT), provides a means to represent, decompose, and elaborate system goals and functions in a rigorous manner that connects directly to design through use of state variables that translate natural language requirements and goals into logical-physical state language. The state variable-based approach also provides the means to directly connect FM to the design, by specifying the range in which state variables must be controlled to achieve goals, and conversely, the failures that exist if system behavior go out-of-range. This in turn allows for the systems engineers and SHM/FM engineers to determine which state variables to monitor, and what action(s) to take should the system fail to achieve that goal. In sum, the GFT representation provides a unified approach to early-phase SE and FM development. This representation and methodology has been successfully developed and implemented using Systems Modeling Language (SysML) on the NASA Space Launch System (SLS) Program. It enabled early design trade studies of failure detection coverage to ensure complete detection coverage of all crew-threatening failures. The representation maps directly both to FM algorithm designs, and to failure scenario definitions needed for design analysis and testing. The GFT representation provided the basis for mapping of abort triggers into scenarios, both needed for initial, and successful quantitative analyses of abort effectiveness (detection and response to crew-threatening events).

  16. Separation of the bioclimatic spaces of Himalayan tree rhododendron species predicted by ensemble suitability models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sailesh Ranjitkar

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The tree rhododendrons include the most widely distributed Himalayan Rhododendron species belonging to the subsection Arborea. Distributions of two members of this sub-species were modelled using bioclimatic data for current conditions (1950–2000. A subset of the least correlated bioclimatic variables was used for ecological niche modelling (ENM. We used an ENM ensemble method in the BiodiversityR R-package to map the suitable climatic space for tree rhododendrons based on 217 point location records. Ensemble bioclimatic models for tree rhododendrons had high predictive power with bioclimatic variables, which also separated the climatic spaces for the two species. Tree rhododendrons were found occurring in a wide range of climate and the distributional limits were associated with isothermality, temperature ranges, temperature of the wettest quarter, and precipitation of the warmest quarter of the year. The most suitable climatic space for tree rhododendrons was predicted to be in western Yunnan, China, with suitability declining towards the west and east. Its occurrence in a wide range of climatic settings with highly dissected habitats speaks to the adaptive capacity of the species, which might open up future options for their conservation planning in regions where they are listed as threatened.

  17. Scenario based outdoor simulation in pre-hospital trauma care using a simple mannequin model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grier Gareth

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction We describe a system of scenario-based training using simple mannequins under realistic circumstances for the training of pre-hospital care providers. Methods A simple intubatable mannequin or student volunteers are used together with a training version of the equipment used on a routine basis by the pre-hospital care team (doctor + paramedic. Training is conducted outdoors at the base location all year round. The scenarios are led by scenario facilitators who are predominantly senior physicians. Their role is to brief the training team and guide the scenario, results of patient assessment and the simulated responses to interventions and treatment. Pilots, fire-fighters and medical students are utilised in scenarios to enhance realism by taking up roles as bystanders, additional ambulance staff and police. These scenario participants are briefed and introduced to the scene in a realistic manner. After completion of the scenario, the training team would usually be invited to prepare and deliver a hospital handover as they would in a real mission. A formal structured debrief then takes place. Results This training method technique has been used for the training of all London Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (London HEMS doctors and paramedics over the last 24 months. Informal participant feedback suggests that this is a very useful teaching method, both for improving motor skills, critical decision-making, scene management and team interaction. Although formal assessment of this technique has not yet taken place we describe how this type of training is conducted in a busy operational pre-hospital trauma service. Discussion The teaching and maintenance of pre-hospital care skills is essential to an effective pre-hospital trauma care system. Simple mannequin based scenario training is feasible on a day-to-day basis and has the advantages of low cost, rapid set up and turn around. The scope of scenarios is limited only by

  18. Late-Quaternary biogeographic scenarios for the brown bear ( Ursus arctos), a wild mammal model species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davison, John; Ho, Simon Y. W.; Bray, Sarah C.; Korsten, Marju; Tammeleht, Egle; Hindrikson, Maris; Østbye, Kjartan; Østbye, Eivind; Lauritzen, Stein-Erik; Austin, Jeremy; Cooper, Alan; Saarma, Urmas

    2011-02-01

    This review provides an up-to-date synthesis of the matrilineal phylogeography of a uniquely well-studied Holarctic mammal, the brown bear. We extend current knowledge by presenting a DNA sequence derived from one of the earliest known fossils of a polar bear (dated to 115 000 years before present), a species that shares a paraphyletic mitochondrial association with brown bears. A molecular clock analysis of 140 mitochondrial DNA sequences, including our new polar bear sequence, provides novel insights into the times of origin for different brown bear clades. We propose a number of regional biogeographic scenarios based on genetic data, divergence time estimates and paleontological records. The case of the brown bear provides an example for researchers working with less well-studied taxa: it shows clearly that phylogeographic models based on patterns of modern genetic variation alone can be substantially improved by including data on historical patterns of genetic diversity in the form of ancient DNA sequences derived from accurately dated samples and by using an approach to divergence-time estimation that suits the data under analysis. Using such approaches it has been possible to (i) establish that the processes shaping modern genetic diversity in brown bears acted recently, within the last three glacial cycles; (ii) distinguish among hypotheses concerning species' responses to climatic oscillations in accordance with the lack of phylogeographic structure that existed in brown bears prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM); (iii) reassess theories linking monophyletic brown bear populations to particular LGM refuge areas; and (iv) identify vicariance events and track analogous patterns of migration by brown bears out of Eurasia to North America and Japan.

  19. Numerical modeling of Etla Valley aquifer, Oax., Mexico: Evolution and remediation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flores-Marquez, E. L; Martinez-Serrano, R. G; Chavez, R. E; Crusillo, Y [Instituto de Geofisica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico D.F. (Mexico); Jimenez, G [Facultad de Ingenieria, Benemerita Universidad Autonoma de Puebla, Puebla (Mexico); Camops-Enriquez, O [Instituto de Geofisica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico D.F. (Mexico)

    2008-01-15

    Short-term evolution (for 2001, 2005 and 2015) for the shallow aquifer of Etla Valley, Oaxaca, southern Mexico, was simulated based in a 3D hydrological model elaborated from the available geological, geophysical, geochemical, and hydrologic parameters. The numerical simulations were based on Visual MODFLOW code. These simulations indicate that, if the actual extraction regime is maintained, the drawdown of the potentiometric surface will get worse to the SE of the study area (i. e. beneath Oaxaca city). The prevailing aquifer flow direction favors the ground water pollution by fertilizers and leakage from the sewage network (dumped to the Atoyac river). According to the numerical simulation, remediation of this situation is possible if the wells located in the neighborhood of Oaxaca City are relocated at the recharge zones (i. e. at the feet from Sierra de Juarez). This remediation scenario will allow a recovery of the drawdown of the potentiometric surface. [Spanish] Se presenta un modelo geohidrologico evolutivo 3D a corto plazo (para los anos 2001, 2005 y 2015) del acuifero somero del Valle de Etla, Oaxaca, sureste de Mexico, basado en los parametros disponibles de geologia, geofisica, geoquimica e hidrologia. Las simulaciones numericas fueron realizadas en Visual MODFLOW. Estas simulaciones indican que, si el actual regimen de extraccion es mantenido, el abatimiento de la superficie potenciometrica puede ser mayor en el SE del area de estudio (i. e. cerca de la ciudad de Oaxaca). La contaminacion por fertilizantes y por las fugas de drenaje es favorecida por la direccion de flujo imperante en el acuifero (vaciandose en el rio Atoyac). De acuerdo a las simulaciones numericas, existe una posible remediacion de este proceso, relocalizando los pozos situados en la ciudad de Oaxaca en las zonas de recarga (i. e. en las faldas de la Sierra de Juarez). Este escenario de remediacion permitiria una recuperacion en el nivel de la superficie potenciometrica.

  20. Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poul Alberg Østergaard

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere. This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model. The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles.

  1. PROBABILISTIC BEHAVIORAL MODEL FOR COMPUTER NETWORK PROTECTION BASED ON ATTACK TREES

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    N. A. Dorodnikov

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with the results of probabilistic model development for behavioral computer network. We present a method for the system state simulation immediately after the attack. To describe the threats we have selected an appropriate set of mathematical models for processes. The authors have proposed a modification of the attack trees theory including probabilistic attack trees, describing the ways to achieve objectives by illegal intruders and calculating the probability of the various types of threats. The proposed method enables to assess the levels of risks and vulnerability of the studied networks with the aid of the system behavior simulation.

  2. Long term peatland subsidence: Experimental study and modeling scenarios in the Venice coastland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanello, Francesca; Teatini, Pietro; Putti, Mario; Gambolati, Giuseppe

    2011-12-01

    2003. The model is then used to investigate the effect of human activities and climate change on the expected reduction of the peat thickness. The results suggest that the long term subsidence is mainly controlled by the manner in which the water table is managed in the peatland. For example, the subsidence rate is almost halved if the current 0.5 m mean water table depth is kept at 0.2 m. Conversely, even the extreme warning scenario provided by the IPCC in 2007 do not suggest significant changes on the expected subsidence trend, at least in low lying reclamation areas where the average temperature rise should not be accompanied by a significant reduction of water availability.

  3. Stochastic Dynamic AC Optimal Power Flow Based on a Multivariate Short-Term Wind Power Scenario Forecasting Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenlei Bai

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The deterministic methods generally used to solve DC optimal power flow (OPF do not fully capture the uncertainty information in wind power, and thus their solutions could be suboptimal. However, the stochastic dynamic AC OPF problem can be used to find an optimal solution by fully capturing the uncertainty information of wind power. That uncertainty information of future wind power can be well represented by the short-term future wind power scenarios that are forecasted using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM—a novel multivariate statistical wind power forecasting model. Furthermore, the GDFM can accurately represent the spatial and temporal correlations among wind farms through the multivariate stochastic process. Fully capturing the uncertainty information in the spatially and temporally correlated GDFM scenarios can lead to a better AC OPF solution under a high penetration level of wind power. Since the GDFM is a factor analysis based model, the computational time can also be reduced. In order to further reduce the computational time, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC algorithm is used to solve the AC OPF problem based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios. Using the modified ABC algorithm based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios has resulted in better AC OPF’ solutions on an IEEE 118-bus system at every hour for 24 h.

  4. Numerical Analysis of an Intercity Bus Structure: A Simple Unifilar Model Proposal to Assess Frontal and Semifrontal Crash Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agenor Dias de Meira Jr.

    Full Text Available Abstract To improve the safety of the intercity bus structure against impact scenarios and to reduce the injuries and death in traffic accidents it is crucial in a country with continental dimensions like Brazil, where the road transport matrix is fundamental in the traffic of people and goods. In this context in the present article, a numerical model of an intercity bus was built with elastoplastic beam implemented in a commercial software Ls-Dyna. This model was submitted to different frontal and semi frontal impact crash scenarios. With this model were analyzed different accidents which happened in the Brazilian highways, it was also simulated a frontal impact test and the results obtained were compared with the experimental results. Finally two numerical approaches were compared, they are: a simple model made with lumped masses and non-linear springs series connected, and the elastoplastic beam model. The different comparisons carried out let us validate the intercity bus model created using elastoplastic beam elements and propose to use this model as an effective tool to search for more efficient bus structural configurations against impact scenarios.

  5. Deterministic and multi-scenario models for pallet allocation over a pallet pool in a city joint distribution system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Wu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Pallet pooling is a basis for the operation of a city joint distribution system. Pallet allocation is a key problem for the success of a pallet pool. This article considers a multi-station, multi-period, and multi-type pallet allocation problem over a pallet pool in a city joint distribution system. First of all, we develop a deterministic model to optimally allocate pallets when managers have perfect knowledge of the information that will be available. By case studies, we show that this model can help managers to make scientific decisions. The influence of transportation capacity on decisions is shown by numerical simulation. And we propose managers should use both demand forecasting and leasing and renting tactics to minimization allocation cost. Then, we propose a multi-scenario model to optimally allocate pallets when some uncertain parameters cannot be estimated through historical data. The application of this multi-scenario model is also illustrated.

  6. Operation room tool handling and miscommunication scenarios: an object-process methodology conceptual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wachs, Juan P; Frenkel, Boaz; Dori, Dov

    2014-11-01

    Errors in the delivery of medical care are the principal cause of inpatient mortality and morbidity, accounting for around 98,000 deaths in the United States of America (USA) annually. Ineffective team communication, especially in the operation room (OR), is a major root of these errors. This miscommunication can be reduced by analyzing and constructing a conceptual model of communication and miscommunication in the OR. We introduce the principles underlying Object-Process Methodology (OPM)-based modeling of the intricate interactions between the surgeon and the surgical technician while handling surgical instruments in the OR. This model is a software- and hardware-independent description of the agents engaged in communication events, their physical activities, and their interactions. The model enables assessing whether the task-related objectives of the surgical procedure were achieved and completed successfully and what errors can occur during the communication. The facts used to construct the model were gathered from observations of various types of operations miscommunications in the operating room and its outcomes. The model takes advantage of the compact ontology of OPM, which is comprised of stateful objects - things that exist physically or informatically, and processes - things that transform objects by creating them, consuming them or changing their state. The modeled communication modalities are verbal and non-verbal, and errors are modeled as processes that deviate from the "sunny day" scenario. Using OPM refinement mechanism of in-zooming, key processes are drilled into and elaborated, along with the objects that are required as agents or instruments, or objects that these processes transform. The model was developed through an iterative process of observation, modeling, group discussions, and simplification. The model faithfully represents the processes related to tool handling that take place in an OR during an operation. The specification is at

  7. The algebra of the general Markov model on phylogenetic trees and networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumner, J G; Holland, B R; Jarvis, P D

    2012-04-01

    It is known that the Kimura 3ST model of sequence evolution on phylogenetic trees can be extended quite naturally to arbitrary split systems. However, this extension relies heavily on mathematical peculiarities of the associated Hadamard transformation, and providing an analogous augmentation of the general Markov model has thus far been elusive. In this paper, we rectify this shortcoming by showing how to extend the general Markov model on trees to include incompatible edges; and even further to more general network models. This is achieved by exploring the algebra of the generators of the continuous-time Markov chain together with the “splitting” operator that generates the branching process on phylogenetic trees. For simplicity, we proceed by discussing the two state case and then show that our results are easily extended to more states with little complication. Intriguingly, upon restriction of the two state general Markov model to the parameter space of the binary symmetric model, our extension is indistinguishable from the Hadamard approach only on trees; as soon as any incompatible splits are introduced the two approaches give rise to differing probability distributions with disparate structure. Through exploration of a simple example, we give an argument that our extension to more general networks has desirable properties that the previous approaches do not share. In particular, our construction allows for convergent evolution of previously divergent lineages; a property that is of significant interest for biological applications.

  8. Analytical modeling of transport aircraft crash scenarios to obtain floor pulses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittlin, G.; Lackey, D.

    1983-01-01

    The KRAS program was used to analyze transport aircraft candidate crash scenarios. Aircraft floor pulses and seat/occupant responses are presented. Results show that: (1) longitudinal only pulses can be represented by equivalent step inputs and/or static requirements; (2) the L1649 crash test floor longitudinal pulse for the aft direction (forward inertia) is less than 9g static or an equivalent 5g pulse; aft inertia accelerations are extremely small ((ch76) 3g) for representative crash scenarios; (3) a viable procedure to relate crash scenario floor pulses to standard laboratory dynamic and static test data using state of the art analysis and test procedures was demonstrated; and (4) floor pulse magnitudes are expected to be lower for wide body aircraft than for smaller narrow body aircraft.

  9. Modelling tree ring cellulose δ18O variations in two temperature-sensitive tree species from North and South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavergne, Aliénor; Gennaretti, Fabio; Risi, Camille; Daux, Valérie; Boucher, Etienne; Savard, Martine M.; Naulier, Maud; Villalba, Ricardo; Bégin, Christian; Guiot, Joël

    2017-11-01

    Oxygen isotopes in tree rings (δ18OTR) are widely used to reconstruct past climates. However, the complexity of climatic and biological processes controlling isotopic fractionation is not yet fully understood. Here, we use the MAIDENiso model to decipher the variability in δ18OTR of two temperature-sensitive species of relevant palaeoclimatological interest (Picea mariana and Nothofagus pumilio) and growing at cold high latitudes in North and South America. In this first modelling study on δ18OTR values in both northeastern Canada (53.86° N) and western Argentina (41.10° S), we specifically aim at (1) evaluating the predictive skill of MAIDENiso to simulate δ18OTR values, (2) identifying the physical processes controlling δ18OTR by mechanistic modelling and (3) defining the origin of the temperature signal recorded in the two species. Although the linear regression models used here to predict daily δ18O of precipitation (δ18OP) may need to be improved in the future, the resulting daily δ18OP values adequately reproduce observed (from weather stations) and simulated (by global circulation model) δ18OP series. The δ18OTR values of the two species are correctly simulated using the δ18OP estimation as MAIDENiso input, although some offset in mean δ18OTR levels is observed for the South American site. For both species, the variability in δ18OTR series is primarily linked to the effect of temperature on isotopic enrichment of the leaf water. We show that MAIDENiso is a powerful tool for investigating isotopic fractionation processes but that the lack of a denser isotope-enabled monitoring network recording oxygen fractionation in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere compartments limits our capacity to decipher the processes at play. This study proves that the eco-physiological modelling of δ18OTR values is necessary to interpret the recorded climate signal more reliably.

  10. Hybrid Modeling for Scenario-Based Evaluation of Failure Effects in Advanced Hardware-Software Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land; Throop, David

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes an incremental scenario-based simulation approach to evaluation of intelligent software for control and management of hardware systems. A hybrid continuous/discrete event simulation of the hardware dynamically interacts with the intelligent software in operations scenarios. Embedded anomalous conditions and failures in simulated hardware can lead to emergent software behavior and identification of missing or faulty software or hardware requirements. An approach is described for extending simulation-based automated incremental failure modes and effects analysis, to support concurrent evaluation of intelligent software and the hardware controlled by the software

  11. CONSTRUCTIVE MODEL OF ADAPTATION OF DATA STRUCTURES IN RAM. PART II. CONSTRUCTORS OF SCENARIOS AND ADAPTATION PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. I. Shynkarenko

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose.The second part of the paper completes presentation of constructive and the productive structures (CPS, modeling adaptation of data structures in memory (RAM. The purpose of the second part in the research is to develop a model of process of adaptation data in a RAM functioning in different hardware and software environments and scenarios of data processing. Methodology. The methodology of mathematical and algorithmic constructionism was applied. In this part of the paper, changes were developed the constructors of scenarios and adaptation processes based on a generalized CPS through its transformational conversions. Constructors are interpreted, specialized CPS. Were highlighted the terminal alphabets of the constructor scenarios in the form of data processing algorithms and the constructor of adaptation – in the form of algorithmic components of the adaptation process. The methodology involves the development of substitution rules that determine the output process of the relevant structures. Findings. In the second part of the paper, system is represented by CPS modeling adaptation data placement in the RAM, namely, constructors of scenarios and of adaptation processes. The result of the implementation of constructor of scenarios is a set of data processing operations in the form of text in the language of programming C#, constructor of the adaptation processes – a process of adaptation, and the result the process of adaptation – the adapted binary code of processing data structures. Originality. For the first time proposed the constructive model of data processing – the scenario that takes into account the order and number of calls to the various elements of data structures and adaptation of data structures to the different hardware and software environments. At the same the placement of data in RAM and processing algorithms are adapted. Constructionism application in modeling allows to link data models and algorithms for

  12. A Lidar Point Cloud Based Procedure for Vertical Canopy Structure Analysis And 3D Single Tree Modelling in Forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yunsheng; Weinacker, Holger; Koch, Barbara

    2008-06-12

    A procedure for both vertical canopy structure analysis and 3D single tree modelling based on Lidar point cloud is presented in this paper. The whole area of research is segmented into small study cells by a raster net. For each cell, a normalized point cloud whose point heights represent the absolute heights of the ground objects is generated from the original Lidar raw point cloud. The main tree canopy layers and the height ranges of the layers are detected according to a statistical analysis of the height distribution probability of the normalized raw points. For the 3D modelling of individual trees, individual trees are detected and delineated not only from the top canopy layer but also from the sub canopy layer. The normalized points are resampled into a local voxel space. A series of horizontal 2D projection images at the different height levels are then generated respect to the voxel space. Tree crown regions are detected from the projection images. Individual trees are then extracted by means of a pre-order forest traversal process through all the tree crown regions at the different height levels. Finally, 3D tree crown models of the extracted individual trees are reconstructed. With further analyses on the 3D models of individual tree crowns, important parameters such as crown height range, crown volume and crown contours at the different height levels can be derived.

  13. How trees allocate carbon for optimal growth: insight from a game-theoretic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Liyong; Sun, Lidan; Han, Hao; Jiang, Libo; Zhu, Sheng; Ye, Meixia; Tang, Shouzheng; Huang, Minren; Wu, Rongling

    2017-02-01

    How trees allocate photosynthetic products to primary height growth and secondary radial growth reflects their capacity to best use environmental resources. Despite substantial efforts to explore tree height-diameter relationship empirically and through theoretical modeling, our understanding of the biological mechanisms that govern this phenomenon is still limited. By thinking of stem woody biomass production as an ecological system of apical and lateral growth components, we implement game theory to model and discern how these two components cooperate symbiotically with each other or compete for resources to determine the size of a tree stem. This resulting allometry game theory is further embedded within a genetic mapping and association paradigm, allowing the genetic loci mediating the carbon allocation of stemwood growth to be characterized and mapped throughout the genome. Allometry game theory was validated by analyzing a mapping data of stem height and diameter growth over perennial seasons in a poplar tree. Several key quantitative trait loci were found to interpret the process and pattern of stemwood growth through regulating the ecological interactions of stem apical and lateral growth. The application of allometry game theory enables the prediction of the situations in which the cooperation, competition or altruism is an optimal decision of a tree to fully use the environmental resources it owns. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Allometric models for aboveground biomass of ten tree species in northeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuo Cai

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available China contains 119 million hectares of natural forest, much of which is secondary forest. An accurate estimation of the biomass of these forests is imperative because many studies conducted in northeast China have only used primary forest and this may have resulted in biased estimates. This study analyzed secondary forest in the area using information from a forest inventory to develop allometric models of the aboveground biomass (AGB. The parameter values of the diameter at breast height (DBH, tree height (H, and crown length (CL were derived from a forest inventory of 2,733 trees in a 3.5 ha plot. The wood-specific gravity (WSG was determined for 109 trees belonging to ten species. A partial sampling method was also used to determine the biomass of branches (including stem, bark and foliage in 120 trees, which substantially easy the field works. The mean AGB was 110,729 kg ha–1. We developed four allometric models from the investigation and evaluated the utility of other 19 published ones for AGB in the ten tree species. Incorporation of full range of variables with WSG-DBH-H-CL, significantly improved the precision of the models. Some of models were chosen that best fitted each tree species with high precision (R2 = 0.939, SEE 0.167. At the latitude level, the estimated AGBof secondary forest was lower than that in mature primary forests, but higher than that in primary broadleaf forest and the average level in other types of forest likewise. 

  15. An Integrated Modelling System to Predict Hydrological Processes under Climate and Land-Use/Cover Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babak Farjad

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes an integrated modeling system consisting of the physically-based MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model, a cellular automata model, and general circulation models (GCMs scenarios to investigate the independent and combined effects of future climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC changes on the hydrology of a river system. The integrated modelling system is applied to the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada in conjunction with extreme GCM scenarios and two LULC change scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s. Results reveal that LULC change substantially modifies the river flow regime in the east sub-catchment, where rapid urbanization is occurring. It is also shown that the change in LULC causes an increase in peak flows in both the 2020s and 2050s. The impacts of climate and LULC change on streamflow are positively correlated in winter and spring, which intensifies their influence and leads to a significant rise in streamflow, and, subsequently, increases the vulnerability of the watershed to spring floods. This study highlights the importance of using an integrated modeling approach to investigate both the independent and combined impacts of climate and LULC changes on the future of hydrology to improve our understanding of how watersheds will respond to climate and LULC changes.

  16. Modelling short-rotation coppice and tree planting for urban carbon management - a citywide analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McHugh, Nicola; Edmondson, Jill L; Gaston, Kevin J; Leake, Jonathan R; O'Sullivan, Odhran S

    2015-10-01

    The capacity of urban areas to deliver provisioning ecosystem services is commonly overlooked and underutilized. Urban populations have globally increased fivefold since 1950, and they disproportionately consume ecosystem services and contribute to carbon emissions, highlighting the need to increase urban sustainability and reduce environmental impacts of urban dwellers. Here, we investigated the potential for increasing carbon sequestration, and biomass fuel production, by planting trees and short-rotation coppice (SRC), respectively, in a mid-sized UK city as a contribution to meeting national commitments to reduce CO 2 emissions.Iterative GIS models were developed using high-resolution spatial data. The models were applied to patches of public and privately owned urban greenspace suitable for planting trees and SRC, across the 73 km 2 area of the city of Leicester. We modelled tree planting with a species mix based on the existing tree populations, and SRC with willow and poplar to calculate biomass production in new trees, and carbon sequestration into harvested biomass over 25 years.An area of 11 km 2 comprising 15% of the city met criteria for tree planting and had the potential over 25 years to sequester 4200 tonnes of carbon above-ground. Of this area, 5·8 km 2 also met criteria for SRC planting and over the same period this could yield 71 800 tonnes of carbon in harvested biomass.The harvested biomass could supply energy to over 1566 domestic homes or 30 municipal buildings, resulting in avoided carbon emissions of 29 236 tonnes of carbon over 25 years when compared to heating by natural gas. Together with the net carbon sequestration into trees, a total reduction of 33 419 tonnes of carbon in the atmosphere could be achieved in 25 years by combined SRC and tree planting across the city. Synthesis and applications . We demonstrate that urban greenspaces in a typical UK city are underutilized for provisioning ecosystem services by trees and

  17. Analyzing tropical forest tree species abundance distributions using a nonneutral model and through approximate Bayesian inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabot, Franck; Chave, Jérôme

    2011-08-01

    The neutral theory of biodiversity challenges the classical niche-based view of ecological communities, where species attributes and environmental conditions jointly determine community composition. Functional equivalence among species, as assumed by neutral ecological theory, has been recurrently falsified, yet many patterns of tropical tree communities appear consistent with neutral predictions. This may mean that neutral theory is a good first-approximation theory or that species abundance data sets contain too little information to reject neutrality. Here we present a simple test of neutrality based on species abundance distributions in ecological communities. Based on this test, we show that deviations from neutrality are more frequent than previously thought in tropical forest trees, especially at small spatial scales. We then develop a nonneutral model that generalizes Hubbell's dispersal-limited neutral model in a simple way by including one additional parameter of frequency dependence. We also develop a statistical method to infer the parameters of this model from empirical data by approximate Bayesian computation. In more than half of the permanent tree plots, we show that our new model fits the data better than does the neutral model. Finally, we discuss whether observed deviations from neutrality may be interpreted as the signature of environmental filtering on tropical tree species abundance distributions.

  18. Development of a dynamic model for the lung lobes and airway tree in the NCAT phantom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrity, J. M.; Segars, W. P.; Knisley, S. B.; Tsui, B. M. W.

    2003-06-01

    The four-dimensional (4-D) NCAT phantom was developed to realistically model human anatomy based on the visible human data and cardiac and respiratory motions based on 4-D tagged magnetic resonance imaging and respiratory-gated CT data from normal human subjects. Currently, the 4-D NCAT phantom does not include the airway tree or its motion within the lungs. Also, each lung is defined with a single surface; the individual lobes are not distinguished. The authors further the development of the phantom by creating dynamic models for the individual lung lobes and for the airway tree in each lobe. NURBS surfaces for the lobes and an initial airway tree model (/spl sim/ 4 generations) were created through manual segmentation of the visible human data. A mathematical algorithm with physiological constraints was used to extend the original airway model to fill each lobe. For each parent airway branch inside a lobe, the algorithm extends the airway tree by creating two daughter branches modeled with cylindrical tubes. Parameters for the cylindrical tubes such as diameter, length, and angle are constrained based on flow parameters and available lung space.

  19. A Reordering Model Using a Source-Side Parse-Tree for Statistical Machine Translation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashimoto, Kei; Yamamoto, Hirofumi; Okuma, Hideo; Sumita, Eiichiro; Tokuda, Keiichi

    This paper presents a reordering model using a source-side parse-tree for phrase-based statistical machine translation. The proposed model is an extension of IST-ITG (imposing source tree on inversion transduction grammar) constraints. In the proposed method, the target-side word order is obtained by rotating nodes of the source-side parse-tree. We modeled the node rotation, monotone or swap, using word alignments based on a training parallel corpus and source-side parse-trees. The model efficiently suppresses erroneous target word orderings, especially global orderings. Furthermore, the proposed method conducts a probabilistic evaluation of target word reorderings. In English-to-Japanese and English-to-Chinese translation experiments, the proposed method resulted in a 0.49-point improvement (29.31 to 29.80) and a 0.33-point improvement (18.60 to 18.93) in word BLEU-4 compared with IST-ITG constraints, respectively. This indicates the validity of the proposed reordering model.

  20. Combining integrated models and participatory methods to quantify water and agricultural trade-offs linked to different rural development scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivas, David; Willaarts, Barbara; García, Ángel de Miguel; Tarquis, Ana Maria

    2017-04-01

    This study explores the water and agricultural tradeoffs linked to three different rural development scenarios in the Cega-Eresma-Adaja basin (CEA) in Central Spain. Agriculture is a key socioeconomic activity in CEA, and nearly 44% of the basin is devoted to croplands and pastures. Irrigated agriculture accounts for 12% of the cropland area and is currently using over 84% of available water resources. To define the three scenarios for CEA, we conducted a workshop with local stakeholders to infer how contrasting evolutions of EU agricultural, water and environmental policies could affect the local land use and agricultural management using participatory mapping techniques. The three scenarios reflect 1) a business as usual (BAU) rural development; 2) a land sharing strategy (LSH); and 3) a land sparing (LSP) situation. The integrated Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the changes in water use (hm^3/year) and agricultural productivity (ton/year) under each scenario. To account for changes in agricultural land use and management, the model integrates a large set of agricultural patterns obtained from combining high resolution remote sensing images (20m x 20m) for the years 2011-2015, agricultural productivity from survey by municipality and land use information obtained from the national map SIOSE2011 (1:50.000). Model calibration and sensitivity analysis were performed using SWAT-CUP/SUFI2 The period of the years 2005 to 2008 were used for parameter calibration and validation period extending between 2009 and 2014. The predicted daily streamflow presents a correlation coefficient of 0.76 and a NS coefficient of 0.81. The preliminary results reveal that under a BAU and a LSP scenario agricultural production and water demand will increase significantly (>25%) despite the improvements in water use efficiency and agricultural productivity. Under these scenarios, allocated water is likely to exceed the natural renewable water resources compromising the

  1. Comparative analysis of hourly and dynamic power balancing models for validating future energy scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pillai, Jayakrishnan R.; Heussen, Kai; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2011-01-01

    Energy system analyses on the basis of fast and simple tools have proven particularly useful for interdisciplinary planning projects with frequent iterations and re-evaluation of alternative scenarios. As such, the tool “EnergyPLAN” is used for hourly balanced and spatially aggregate annual...

  2. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Modelling Framework to Evaluate Water Allocation Strategies II: Scenario Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    George, B.; Malano, H.; Davidson, B.; Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Bharati, L.; Sylvain, M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper the results of an assessment of the hydrological and economic implications of reallocating water in the Musi sub-basin, a catchment within the Krishna Basin in India, are reported. Policy makers identified a number of different but plausible scenarios that could apply in the sub-basin,

  3. Modelling the thermomechanical behaviour of the tungsten first wall in HiPER laser fusion scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garoz, D.; Páramo, A. R.; Rivera, A.; Perlado, J. M.; González-Arrabal, R.

    2016-12-01

    The behaviour of a tungsten first wall is studied under the irradiation conditions predicted for the different operational scenarios of the European laser fusion project HiPER, which is based on direct drive targets and an evacuated dry wall chamber. The scenarios correspond to different stages in the development of a nuclear fusion reactor, from proof of principle (bunch mode facility) to economic feasibility (pre-commercial power plant). This work constitutes a quantitative study to evaluate first wall performance under realistic irradiation conditions in the different scenarios. We calculated the radiation fluxes assuming the geometrical configurations reported so far for HiPER. Then, we calculated the irradiation-induced evolution of first wall temperature and the thermomechanical response of the material. The results indicate that the first wall will plastically deform up to a few microns underneath the surface. Continuous operation in a power plant leads to fatigue failure with crack generation and growth. Finally, crack propagation and the minimum tungsten thickness required to fulfil the first wall protection role is studied. The response of tungsten as a first wall material as well as its main limitations will be discussed for the HiPER scenarios.

  4. Intrinsically green iron oxide nanoparticles? From synthesis via (eco-)toxicology to scenario modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filser, Juliane; Arndt, Darius; Baumann, Jonas; Geppert, Mark; Hackmann, Stephan; Luther, Eva M.; Pade, Christian; Prenzel, Katrin; Wigger, Henning; Arning, Jürgen; Hohnholt, Michaela C.; Köser, Jan; Kück, Andrea; Lesnikov, Elena; Neumann, Jennifer; Schütrumpf, Simon; Warrelmann, Jürgen; Bäumer, Marcus; Dringen, Ralf; von Gleich, Arnim; Swiderek, Petra; Thöming, Jorg

    2013-01-01

    Iron oxide nanoparticles (IONP) are currently being studied as green magnet resonance imaging (MRI) contrast agents. They are also used in huge quantities for environmental remediation and water treatment purposes, although very little is known on the consequences of such applications for organisms and ecosystems. In order to address these questions, we synthesised polyvinylpyrrolidone-coated IONP, characterised the particle dispersion in various media and investigated the consequences of an IONP exposure using an array of biochemical and biological assays. Several theoretical approaches complemented the measurements. In aqueous dispersion IONP had an average hydrodynamic diameter of 25 nm and were stable over six days in most test media, which could also be predicted by stability modelling. The particles were tested in concentrations of up to 100 mg Fe per L. The activity of the enzymes glutathione reductase and acetylcholine esterase was not affected, nor were proliferation, morphology or vitality of mammalian OLN-93 cells although exposure of the cells to 100 mg Fe per L increased the cellular iron content substantially. Only at this concentration, acute toxicity tests with the freshwater flea Daphnia magna revealed slightly, yet insignificantly increased mortality. Two fundamentally different bacterial assays, anaerobic activated sludge bacteria inhibition and a modified sediment contact test with Arthrobacter globiformis, both rendered results contrary to the other assays: at the lowest test concentration (1 mg Fe per L), IONP caused a pronounced inhibition whereas higher concentrations were not effective or even stimulating. Preliminary and prospective risk assessment was exemplified by comparing the application of IONP with gadolinium-based nanoparticles as MRI contrast agents. Predicted environmental concentrations were modelled in two different scenarios, showing that IONP could reduce the environmental exposure of toxic Gd-based particles by more than 50

  5. Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidl, R.; Schelhaas, M.J.; Lindner, M.; Lexer, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    To study potential consequences of climate-induced changes in the biotic disturbance regime at regional to national scale we integrated a model of Ips typographus (L. Scol. Col.) damages into the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN. A two-stage multivariate statistical meta-model was used to

  6. Research Article Evaluation of different signal propagation models for a mixed indoor-outdoor scenario using empirical data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleksandr Artemenko

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we are choosing a suitable indoor-outdoor propagation model out of the existing models by considering path loss and distance as parameters. A path loss is calculated empirically by placing emitter nodes inside a building. A receiver placed outdoors is represented by a Quadrocopter (QC that receives beacon messages from indoor nodes. As per our analysis, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU model, Stanford University Interim (SUI model, COST-231 Hata model, Green-Obaidat model, Free Space model, Log-Distance Path Loss model and Electronic Communication Committee 33 (ECC-33 models are chosen and evaluated using empirical data collected in a real environment. The aim is to determine if the analytically chosen models fit our scenario by estimating the minimal standard deviation from the empirical data.

  7. Tree level vacuum stability in two-Higgs-doublet models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velhinho, J.; Santos, R.; Barroso, A.

    1994-02-01

    We study the two-Higgs-doublet models with CP conservation. In particular, we consider the special form of the potential which has a single CP invariant stable minimum. We also comment on the bounds for the Higgs masses and couplings derived in these models.

  8. Fault Tree Analysis with Temporal Gates and Model Checking Technique for Qualitative System Safety Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koh, Kwang Yong; Seong, Poong Hyun [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-05-15

    Fault tree analysis (FTA) has suffered from several drawbacks such that it uses only static gates and hence can not capture dynamic behaviors of the complex system precisely, and it is in lack of rigorous semantics, and reasoning process which is to check whether basic events really cause top events is done manually and hence very labor-intensive and time-consuming for the complex systems while it has been one of the most widely used safety analysis technique in nuclear industry. Although several attempts have been made to overcome this problem, they can not still do absolute or actual time modeling because they adapt relative time concept and can capture only sequential behaviors of the system. In this work, to resolve the problems, FTA and model checking are integrated to provide formal, automated and qualitative assistance to informal and/or quantitative safety analysis. Our approach proposes to build a formal model of the system together with fault trees. We introduce several temporal gates based on timed computational tree logic (TCTL) to capture absolute time behaviors of the system and to give concrete semantics to fault tree gates to reduce errors during the analysis, and use model checking technique to automate the reasoning process of FTA

  9. Health Benefits of Dietary Tree Peony Seed Oil in a High Fat Diet Hamster Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zhiqiang Zheng; Jigang Han; Yingyi Mao; Xue Tang; Yan Guan; Yonghong Hu

    2017-01-01

    .... In this study, we experimentally investigated benefits of dietary tree peony seed oil(PSO) in dyslipidemia-associated metabolic diseases using a high fat diet hamster model.Methods:High fat diets(HFD)containing 15 % coconut oil(CO...

  10. A quasi-steady state shrinking core model of "whole tree" combustion

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A quasi-steady state shrinking core model of "whole tree" combustion. A. Ouédraogo, JC Mulligan, JG Cleland. Abstract. (J. de la Recherche Scientifique de l'Université de Lomé, 2000, 4(2): 199-208). Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · AJOL African ...

  11. A biologically-based individual tree model for managing the longleaf pine ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rick Smith; Greg Somers

    1998-01-01

    Duration: 1995-present Objective: Develop a longleaf pine dynamics model and simulation system to define desirable ecosystem management practices in existing and future longleaf pine stands. Methods: Naturally-regenerated longleaf pine trees are being destructively sampled to measure their recent growth and dynamics. Soils and climate data will be combined with the...

  12. Tree-species range shifts in a changing climate: detecting, modeling, assisting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R. Iverson; Donald. McKenzie

    2013-01-01

    In these times of rapidly changing climate, the science of detecting and modeling shifts in the ranges of tree species is advancing of necessity. We briefly review the current state of the science on several fronts. First, we review current and historical evidence for shifting ranges and migration. Next, we review two broad categories of methods, focused on the spatial...

  13. Generic linear mixed-effects individual-tree biomass models for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Quantification of forest biomass is important for practical forestry and for scientific purposes. It is fundamental to develop generic individual-tree biomass models suitable for large-scale forest biomass estimation. However, compatibility of forest biomass estimates at different scales may become a problem. We developed ...

  14. Amazigh Part-of-Speech Tagging Using Markov Models and Decision Trees

    OpenAIRE

    Samir AMRI; Lahbib ZENKOUAR; Outahajala, Mohamed

    2016-01-01

    The main goal of this work is the implementation of a new tool for the Amazigh part of speech tagging using Markov Models and decision trees. After studying different approaches and problems of part of speech tagging, we have implemented a tagging system based on TreeTagger - a generic stochastic tagging tool, very popular for its efficiency. We have gathered a working corpus, large enough to ensure a general linguistic coverage. This corpus has been used to run the tokenization process, as w...

  15. Development of a Generic Tubular Tree Structure for the Modeling of Orbital Cranial Nerves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaltofen, Thomas; Ivcevic, Sara; Kogler, Mathias; Priglinger, Siegfried

    2016-01-01

    We developed a generic approach for modeling tubular tree structures as triangle meshes for the extension of our biomechanical eye model SEE-KID with a visualization of the orbital cranial nerves. Since three of the orbital nerves innervate extraocular eye muscles and move together with them, the structure must also support the partial translation and rotation of the nerves. For the SEE-KID model, this extension allows a better parameterization as well as an easier simulation of innervational disorders. Moreover, it makes the model even more useful for education and training purposes in contrast to other anatomical models. Due to its generic nature, the developed data structure and the associated algorithms can be used for any tubular tree structures, even in non-medical application areas.

  16. Establishing a serologic decision tree model of extrapulmonary tuberculosis by MALDI-TOF MS analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Chuiwen; Lin, Minggui; Hu, Chaojun; Li, Yanfeng; Gao, Yang; Cheng, Xiaoxing; Zhang, Fengchun; Dong, Mei; Li, Yongzhe

    2011-10-01

    Matrix-assisted laser desorption-ionization time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) combined with weak cationic exchange (WCX) magnetic beads was used to establish a decision tree model that distinguished extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) from non-EPTB individuals. Eight-one patients with EPTB and 112 non-EPTB individuals (72 disease controls and 40 healthy controls) were involved in this study. The model was set up by 5 of 19 differentially expressed peaks (P EPTB from non-EPTB with a sensitivity of 97.7% and a specificity of 84.1%. The test set verified that this model had good sensitivity and specificity: 94.4% and 83.6%, respectively. In conclusion, MALDI-TOF MS combined with WCX magnetic beads is a powerful technology for constructing a decision tree model and the model we built could serve as a potential diagnostic tool for EPTB. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Multiscale model of a freeze-thaw process for tree sap exudation

    CERN Document Server

    Graf, Isabell; Stockie, John M

    2015-01-01

    Sap transport in trees has long fascinated scientists, and a vast literature exists on experimental and modelling studies of trees during the growing season when large negative stem pressures are generated by transpiration from leaves. Much less attention has been paid to winter months when trees are largely dormant but nonetheless continue to exhibit interesting flow behaviour. A prime example is sap exudation, which refers to the peculiar ability of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) and related species to generate positive stem pressure while in a leafless state. Experiments demonstrate that ambient temperatures must oscillate about the freezing point before significantly heightened stem pressures are observed, but the precise causes of exudation remain unresolved. The prevailing hypothesis attributes exudation to a physical process combining freeze-thaw and osmosis, which has some support from experimental studies but remains a subject of active debate. We address this knowledge gap by developing the first math...

  18. A review of logistic regression models used to predict post-fire tree mortality of western North American conifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis Woolley; David C. Shaw; Lisa M. Ganio; Stephen. Fitzgerald

    2012-01-01

    Logistic regression models used to predict tree mortality are critical to post-fire management, planning prescribed bums and understanding disturbance ecology. We review literature concerning post-fire mortality prediction using logistic regression models for coniferous tree species in the western USA. We include synthesis and review of: methods to develop, evaluate...

  19. Development of a shortleaf pine individual-tree growth equation using non-linear mixed modeling techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakra B. Budhathoki; Thomas B. Lynch; James M. Guldin

    2010-01-01

    Nonlinear mixed-modeling methods were used to estimate parameters in an individual-tree basal area growth model for shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.). Shortleaf pine individual-tree growth data were available from over 200 permanently established 0.2-acre fixed-radius plots located in naturally-occurring even-aged shortleaf pine forests on the...

  20. An indicator based 'traffic light' model to pro-actively assess the occurrence of mycotoxins in tree nuts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeurissen, S.M.F.; Seyhan, F.; Kandhai, M.C.; Dekkers, S.; Booij, C.J.H.; Bos, P.M.J.; Fels, van der H.J.

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes an indicator based 'traffic light'