Scenario study on the FBR deployment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ono, Kiyoshi; Kofuji, Hirohide; Otaki, Akira; Yonezawa, Shigeaki; Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Hirao, Kazunori; Ikegami, Tetsuo

2000-12-01

This study on success scenarios for the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) deployment was performed taking account of future situation of fossil, renewable and nuclear energies in Japan as well as the world from the viewpoints of the following four items; economics, environment, energy security and restriction of natural uranium resources. In the economics scenario, if carbon tax is added to generating cost of LNG, coal and oil and the economics of FBR cycle is competitive with LWR cycle in the future, FBR cycle will be expected to introduce as the middle and base load power plant. In the environment scenario, there is also any possibility that FBR cycle which can burn and transmute minor actinide and fission product elements will be introduced in order to reduce the burden of deposit facility and the toxicity of high-level waste. In the uranium resources restriction scenario, FBR cycle needs to be deployed at the latest in the middle of 21st century from the viewpoint of the restriction of natural uranium resources. This study was carried out in a part of JNC's feasibility study on commercialized FBR cycle system. (author)

Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Value Proposition Study: Interim Report: Phase I Scenario Evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sikes, Karen R [ORNL; Markel, Lawrence C [ORNL; Hadley, Stanton W [ORNL; Hinds, Shaun [Sentech, Inc.; DeVault, Robert C [ORNL

2009-01-01

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) offer significant improvements in fuel economy, convenient low-cost recharging capabilities, potential environmental benefits, and decreased reliance on imported petroleum. However, the cost associated with new components (e.g., advanced batteries) to be introduced in these vehicles will likely result in a price premium to the consumer. This study aims to overcome this market barrier by identifying and evaluating value propositions that will increase the qualitative value and/or decrease the overall cost of ownership relative to the competing conventional vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) of 2030 During this initial phase of this study, business scenarios were developed based on economic advantages that either increase the consumer value or reduce the consumer cost of PHEVs to assure a sustainable market that can thrive without the aid of state and Federal incentives or subsidies. Once the characteristics of a thriving PHEV market have been defined for this timeframe, market introduction steps, such as supportive policies, regulations and temporary incentives, needed to reach this level of sustainability will be determined. PHEVs have gained interest over the past decade for several reasons, including their high fuel economy, convenient low-cost recharging capabilities, potential environmental benefits and reduced use of imported petroleum, potentially contributing to President Bush's goal of a 20% reduction in gasoline use in ten years, or 'Twenty in Ten'. PHEVs and energy storage from advanced batteries have also been suggested as enabling technologies to improve the reliability and efficiency of the electric power grid. However, PHEVs will likely cost significantly more to purchase than conventional or other hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), in large part because of the cost of batteries. Despite the potential long-term savings to consumers and value to stakeholders, the initial cost of PHEVs

Inflationary universe in deformed phase space scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Rasouli, S. M. M.; Saba, Nasim; Farhoudi, Mehrdad; Marto, João; Moniz, P. V.

2018-06-01

We consider a noncommutative (NC) inflationary model with a homogeneous scalar field minimally coupled to gravity. The particular NC inflationary setting herein proposed, produces entirely new consequences as summarized in what follows. We first analyze the free field case and subsequently examine the situation where the scalar field is subjected to a polynomial and exponential potentials. We propose to use a canonical deformation between momenta, in a spatially flat Friedmann-Lemaî tre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) universe, and while the Friedmann equation (Hamiltonian constraint) remains unaffected the Friedmann acceleration equation (and thus the Klein-Gordon equation) is modified by an extra term linear in the NC parameter. This concrete noncommutativity on the momenta allows interesting dynamics that other NC models seem not to allow. Let us be more precise. This extra term behaves as the sole explicit pressure that under the right circumstances implies a period of accelerated expansion of the universe. We find that in the absence of the scalar field potential, and in contrast with the commutative case, in which the scale factor always decelerates, we obtain an inflationary phase for small negative values of the NC parameter. Subsequently, the period of accelerated expansion is smoothly replaced by an appropriate deceleration phase providing an interesting model regarding the graceful exit problem in inflationary models. This last property is present either in the free field case or under the influence of the scalar field potentials considered here. Moreover, in the case of the free scalar field, we show that not only the horizon problem is solved but also there is some resemblance between the evolution equation of the scale factor associated to our model and that for the R2 (Starobinsky) inflationary model. Therefore, our herein NC model not only can be taken as an appropriate scenario to get a successful kinetic inflation, but also is a convenient setting to

Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study. Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses: Main Text and Appendices A, B, C, D, and F

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plotkin, Steve [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Singh, Margaret [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Patterson, Phil [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Ward, Jake [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Wood, Frances [OnLocation Inc., Vienna, VA (United States); Kydes, Niko [OnLocation Inc., Vienna, VA (United States); Holte, John [OnLocation Inc., Vienna, VA (United States); Moore, Jim [TA Engineering, Inc., Catonsville, MD (United States); Miller, Grant [TA Engineering, Inc., Catonsville, MD (United States); Das, Sujit [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Greene, David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2009-07-22

This report provides details for Phase 2 of the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study, which compares alternative ways to make significant reductions in oil use and carbon emissions from U.S. light vehicles to 2050. Phase I, completed in 2009, examined the full range of pathways of interest to EERE, with multiple scenarios aimed at revealing the issues and impacts associated with a national effort to reduce U.S. dependence on oil use in transportation. Phase 2 expanded the scope of the analysis by examining the interactive effects of multiple pathways on each other and on oil and feedstock prices, focusing far more on costs; and substantially increasing the number of metrics used to compare pathways and scenarios.

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

Which comparative costs between phasing out nuclear within 20 years and carrying on nuclear energy like in the DGEC scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dessus, Benjamin

2011-01-01

The author proposes a comparison between two scenarios by 2031: phasing out nuclear or carrying on according to the DGEC scenario. According to the last one, nuclear power plants are progressively replaced by EPRs. The author analyses, assesses and compares the electricity production, transportation, distribution, and saving costs, and then the different investments to be made (in electricity production, for electricity saving, for the grid)

Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

2006-12-01

The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios-Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mander, Sarah L.; Bows, Alice; Anderson, Kevin L.; Shackley, Simon; Agnolucci, Paolo; Ekins, Paul

2008-01-01

The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project has outlined alternative pathways whereby a 60% reduction in CO 2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2050, a goal adopted by the UK Government, can be achieved. This paper, Part I of a two part paper, describes the methodology used to develop the scenarios and outlines the motivations for the project. The study utilised a backcasting approach, applied in three phases. In phase one, a set of credible and consistent end-points that described a substantially decarbonised energy system in 2050 were generated and reviewed by stakeholders. In phase two, pathways were developed to achieve the transition to the desired end-point. The impacts of the scenarios were assessed in phase three, by means of a deliberative multi-criteria assessment framework. The scenarios to emerge from this process are elaborated in Part II, and conclusions drawn in relation to the feasibility of achieving the 60% target

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

Analyses of the performance of the ASTRID-like TRU burners in regional scenario studies - 5136

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vezzoni, B.; Gabrielli, F.; Rineiski, A.

2015-01-01

In the past, large Sodium Fast Reactors systems (earlier CAPRA/CADRA, later ESFR and ESFR-like systems) and Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS-EFIT) were considered and extensively studied in Europe for managing MAs/Pu within regional or national scenario studies. After the ASTRID system was proposed in France, ASTRID-like burners could be considered as further options to be investigated. Low conversion ratio (CR) ASTRID-like burner cores (1200 MWth) have been considered at KIT by introducing few modifications with respect to the original French ASTRID design. These modifications allow keeping almost unchanged the main characteristics of the system (e.g. thermal power) and avoiding a strong deterioration of safety parameters (such as sodium void effect) after introduction of large amounts of Pu (more than 20%) and MAs (2-12%) in the fuel. These cores have already been studied at KIT for phase-out scenarios. A constant energy production case, relevant for a European or another regional scenario is considered in the paper. Cases with different shares (from 10 to 30%) of ASTRID-like burners in the nuclear energy fleet are compared. The results show that the ASTRID-like burners allow the use of all TRUs compositions foreseen in the fuel cycle with a proper choice of the MAs to Pu ratios and of the U/TRUs fractions either in phasing-out and on-going nuclear energy utilization conditions. The results show that a mixed fleet composed of 11% burners and 89% ESFR is able to stabilize the MAs in the cycle. The same stabilization is obtained with a fleet composed by 33% burner in combination with LWRs only

Palestinian-Israeli Scenario Planning - Phase II | IDRC ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

As currently foreseen, neither the two-state nor the one-state solution offers much hope of resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Scenario Planning Program of the Strategic Assessments Initiative (SAI) aims to launch a deeper examination of what a sustainable solution requires by shifting the debate from the ...

Futures of elderly care in Iran: A protocol with scenario approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Goharinezhad, Salime; Maleki, Mohammadreza; Baradaran, Hamid Reza; Ravaghi, Hamid

2016-01-01

Background: The number of people aged 60 and older is increasing faster than other age groups worldwide. Iran will experience a sharp aging population increase in the next decades, and this will pose new challenges to the healthcare system. Since providing high quality aged-care services would be the major concern of the policymakers, this question arises that what types of aged care services should be organized in the coming 10 years? This protocol has been designed to develop a set of scenarios for the future of elderly care in Iran. Methods: In this study, intuitive logics approach and Global Business Network (GBN) model were used to develop scenarios for elderly care in Iran. In terms of perspective, the scenarios in this approach are normative, qualitative with respect to methodology and deductive in constructing the process of scenarios. The three phases of GBN model are as follows: 1) Orientation: Identifying strategic levels, stakeholders, participants and time horizon; 2) Exploration: Identifying the driving forces and key uncertainties; 3) Synthesis: Defining the scenario logics and constructing scenario storyline. Results: Presently, two phases are completed and the results will be published in mid-2016. Conclusion: This study delivers a comprehensive framework for taking appropriate actions in providing care for the elderly in the future. Moreover, policy makers should specify and provide the full range of services for the elderly, and in doing so, the scenarios and key findings of this study could be of valuable help.

Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

2008-01-01

This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

Economic study of fuel scenarios for a reload

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz S, J. J.; Castillo M, J. A.; Montes T, J. L.; Perusquia del C, R.

2014-10-01

In this work the results to plan different scenarios for designing a nuclear fuel reload are shown. Given a reload with specific energy requirements, the objective is to verify the feasibility of using either a greater number of fresh fuel with less uranium enrichment, or otherwise reduce the number of fresh fuel assemblies and therefore they have a higher average uranium enrichment. For the study a cycle balance 18-month basis with 112 fresh assemblies divided into two lots, with energy produced of 10,075 Mwd/Tu was used. For the designs under the mentioned scenarios, the heuristic techniques known as taboo search and neural networks were used. To verify the feasibility of obtained reloads an economic study of the reload costs was performed. The results showed that is possible to design reloads under the two scenarios, but was more complicated decrease the amount of fresh fuel assemblies. In both scenarios was possible to reduce manufacturing costs of fuel and according to purely static calculation, it would be possible to increase the energy produced. (Author)

Los Angeles International Airport Runway Incursion Studies: Phase III--Center-Taxiway Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Madson, Michael D.

2004-01-01

Phase III of the Los Angeles International Airport Runway Incursion Studies was conducted, under an agreement with HNTB Corporation, at the NASA Ames FutureFlight Central (FFC) facility in June 2003. The objective of the study was the evaluation of a new center-taxiway concept at LAX. This study is an extension of the Phase I and Phase II studies previously conducted at FFC. This report presents results from Phase III of the study, in which a center-taxiway concept between runways 25L and 25R was simulated and evaluated. Phase III data were compared objectively against the Baseline data. Subjective evaluations by participating LAX controllers were obtained with regard to workload, efficiency, and safety criteria. To facilitate a valid comparison between Baseline and Phase III data, the same scenarios were used for Phase III that were tested during Phases I and II. This required briefing participating controllers on differences in airport and airline operations between 2001 and today.

Design and preparation of scenarios for human factors studies in the HAMMLAB

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moracho, M. J.

1999-01-01

In the preparation of experiments for Human Factors studies, the scenarios play an important role. As a matter of fact, scenario effect is often demonstrated in the analysis of results. An experimental study referred to as Experiments' 97 was conducted in the Halden Man Machine LABoratory. In the design of the scenarios for this experiment, an effort was made for producing scenarios in compliance with the objectives of the study. Before the experiment simulations, scenario analysis was conducted and documented. This report presents some of the lessons learned from these activities. It also identifies main issues to be considered in the scenario characterisation and preparation. Examples of the scenarios' design document produced for the Experiments' 97 as well as examples of measure definitions for OPAS (OPerator Assessment System) and PPAS (Plant Performance System) are included in the appendixes (author) (ml)

Study on scenario evaluation methodology for decommissioning nuclear facilities using fuzzy logic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuhashi, Kazuya; Yanagihara, Satoshi

2015-01-01

Since there are many scenarios of the process from start to completion of a decommissioning project, it is important to study scenarios of decommissioning by evaluating such properties as safety, cost, and technology. An optimum scenario with the highest feasibility in accordance with the facility and environmental conditions should be selected on the basis of the results of the study. For analyzing a scenario of decommissioning, we prepared structured work packages by using the work breakdown structures (WBS) method together with qualitative evaluation of the technologies being applied to work packages located at the bottom (the third level) of the WBS. A calculation model was constructed to evaluate the feasibility of a scenario where fuzzy logic is applied to derive a score of technology performance and TOPSIS is applied for getting a feasibility grade of the scenario from technical performance scoring. As a case study, the model was applied to the debris removal scenario of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant to confirm its applicability. Two scenarios, underwater and in-air debris removal cases, were characterized by extracting the work packages with the lowest feasibility and by obtaining total average scores of the scenarios. It is confirmed that the methodology developed is useful for the scenario evaluation of decommissioning nuclear facilities. (author)

The matter-ekpyrotic bounce scenario in Loop Quantum Cosmology

Science.gov (United States)

Haro, Jaume; Amorós, Jaume; Aresté Saló, Llibert

2017-09-01

We will perform a detailed study of the matter-ekpyrotic bouncing scenario in Loop Quantum Cosmology using the methods of the dynamical systems theory. We will show that when the background is driven by a single scalar field, at very late times, in the contracting phase, all orbits depict a matter dominated Universe, which evolves to an ekpyrotic phase. After the bounce the Universe enters in the expanding phase, where the orbits leave the ekpyrotic regime going to a kination (also named deflationary) regime. Moreover, this scenario supports the production of heavy massive particles conformally coupled with gravity, which reheats the universe at temperatures compatible with the nucleosynthesis bounds and also the production of massless particles non-conformally coupled with gravity leading to very high reheating temperatures but ensuring the nucleosynthesis success. Dealing with cosmological perturbations, these background dynamics produce a nearly scale invariant power spectrum for the modes that leave the Hubble radius, in the contracting phase, when the Universe is quasi-matter dominated, whose spectral index and corresponding running is compatible with the recent experimental data obtained by PLANCK's team.

Scenario Development and Delphi Application in Life Cycle Assessment for Assessing Environmental Impact of New Technology Case Study: Removal of Wind Turbines Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Devina Fitrika Dewi

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Certain technology is intended to create eco-efficient products or process or is developed as answer to the recent challenge. This kind of technology consequently can also create another impact therefore it shall be assessed and analyzed.The focus of the study is on assessment method namely Life Cycle Analysis (LCA, Scenario development and Delphi application. The objective is to understand benefits and drawbacks of the combined methodology and observe practicality of its implementation for assessing new technology. The distinctive feature comes from the combination of social and technological foresight (as Delphi application and future studies (as Scenario development which are applied in the environmental assessment of a product (by Life Cycle Analysis.The utilization of LCA-Scenario-Delphi case study as an explanatory example is presented in the Removal Wind Turbines Project by the Danish Energy Agency. The wind turbine is considered new technology with some of it phases are yet to occur, for example: removal of turbines after phase out stage. Technology Assessment by LCA-Scenario-Delphi is complicated procedure, but necessary to validate the results. The drawbacks of this procedure are extensive time it consumes and the dependency on public participation and/or expert willingness to participate. Nonetheless, its advantages are due to its interactive feature; integration of knowledge from different areas of expertise and its assessment’s characteristic which focuses on process.

Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

2018-02-01

Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

Effects of Role-Playing Scenarios on the Self-efficacy of Students in Resisting Against Substance Addiction: A Pilot Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Karatay, Gülnaz; Gürarslan Baş, Nazan

2017-01-01

During the first phases of adolescent development, young people have little self-efficacy and resistance against substance use. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the effectiveness of role-playing scenarios on the self-efficacy of students in resisting substance use. A pre test and post test study design was used with a single group. The study was carried out with 245 secondary school students. The scenario-based training, developed by the researchers, was presented by the school counselors once a week for 4 weeks. For this purpose, a booklet of scenarios was prepared for the teachers. The role-playing scenarios were intended to improve adolescents' abilities to say "no" to substance offers, to prevent them from becoming addicted to certain substances, and to call for help if needed. The data of the study were collected using the Personal Information Form and the Self-Efficacy for Adolescences Protecting Substance Abuse Scale . The obtained data were assessed using percentages, chi-square, t test, and F test in the SPSS software. Results showed that, after the training, the mean score in the Self-Efficacy for Adolescences Protecting Substance Abuse Scale increased significantly (103.20 ± 20.00) compared with before the training (92.11 ± 17.08) ( P < .05). Short-term outcomes of the class-based scenario training were observed to be effective in the development of students' self-efficacy to resist the temptations of substance use.

Hazards study of environmental protection classified facilities. Scenarios analysis; Etude de dangers des ICPE. Analyse des scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seveque, J.L. [Cour d' Appel d' Amiens, 80 (France)

2006-04-15

This article describes the analysis and study of the possible impacts of accidents occurring at industrial facilities classified with respect to the environment protection. The operators of such facilities have to describe the possible risks and their consequences, the measures taken to prevent them and the level of residual risk. Therefore, it consists in calculating the consequences of all possible aggressions that a facility can undergo. The receptors are of 2 type: the human body (burns, asphyxia, intoxication, shock wave, projectile), and the surrounding equipments (fire, unconfined vapour cloud explosion (UVCE), boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE), fireball, dispersion of toxic gases). Content: 1 - fire-type scenario: description, modeling of thermal effects, conclusion; 2 - UVCE-type scenario: description, Lannoy method (TNT equivalent), multi-energy method, conclusion; 3 - BLEVE-type scenario: description, modeling of overpressure effects, thermal effects of the fireball; 4 - toxic cloud scenario: modeling of a toxic cloud dispersion, effects and consequences; 5 - conclusions. (J.S.)

Open Scenario Study, Phase I. Volume 1. Assessment Overview and Results

Science.gov (United States)

2008-03-01

review of resources and requirements necessary to implement the response and improving civil military relations. Money Laudering Presents local...or money ? C. PHASE ONE APPROACH To systematically address these kinds of questions, IDA pursued a three-part approach that included reviewing the...their organizations a significant amount of time or money ? B. INTERVIEW QUESTIONS The final sponsor-approved version of the interview questions

Evaluation of results of Phase B of the German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, B.; Hahn, L.; Sailer, M.

1989-01-01

The expert opinion summarizes and discusses the intermediate and the final results of Phase B of the German Risk Study. Emphasis is placed on systems analyses and event scenarios, core melt-down scenarios and effects on the containment, failure of the containment and resulting source terms, radioactivity transport and consequences of accidents, multi-system emergencies and external disturbances, accident management and means of mitigation of damage. (DG) [de

The matter-ekpyrotic bounce scenario in Loop Quantum Cosmology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haro, Jaume; Amorós, Jaume; Saló, Llibert Aresté, E-mail: jaime.haro@upc.edu, E-mail: jaume.amoros@upc.edu, E-mail: llibert.areste@estudiant.upc.edu [Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Diagonal 647, 08028 Barcelona (Spain)

2017-09-01

We will perform a detailed study of the matter-ekpyrotic bouncing scenario in Loop Quantum Cosmology using the methods of the dynamical systems theory. We will show that when the background is driven by a single scalar field, at very late times, in the contracting phase, all orbits depict a matter dominated Universe, which evolves to an ekpyrotic phase. After the bounce the Universe enters in the expanding phase, where the orbits leave the ekpyrotic regime going to a kination (also named deflationary) regime. Moreover, this scenario supports the production of heavy massive particles conformally coupled with gravity, which reheats the universe at temperatures compatible with the nucleosynthesis bounds and also the production of massless particles non-conformally coupled with gravity leading to very high reheating temperatures but ensuring the nucleosynthesis success. Dealing with cosmological perturbations, these background dynamics produce a nearly scale invariant power spectrum for the modes that leave the Hubble radius, in the contracting phase, when the Universe is quasi-matter dominated, whose spectral index and corresponding running is compatible with the recent experimental data obtained by PLANCK's team.

International bioenergy trade. Scenario study on international biomass market in 2020

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heinimoe, J.; Pakarinen, V.; Ojanen, V.; Kaessi, T.

2007-07-01

The markets of biomass for energy are developing rapidly and becoming more international. A remarkable increase in the use of biomass for energy needs parallel and positive development in several areas, and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. The main objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020, and based on the scenario process, to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. Two scenario processes were conducted for this study. The first was carried out with a group of Finnish experts and the second involved an international group. A heuristic, semi structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes. The scenario processes reinforced the picture of the future of international biomass and bioenergy markets as a complex and multi layer subject. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The results of the scenario process also opened up new discussion and provided new information and collective views of experts for the purposes of policy makers. An overall view resulting from this scenario analysis are the enormous opportunities relating to the utilisation of biomass as a resource for global energy use in the coming decades. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of technological development to solve global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial

International bioenergy trade. Scenario study on international biomass market in 2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heinimoe, J.; Pakarinen, V.; Ojanen, V.; Kaessi, T.

2007-01-01

The markets of biomass for energy are developing rapidly and becoming more international. A remarkable increase in the use of biomass for energy needs parallel and positive development in several areas, and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. The main objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020, and based on the scenario process, to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. Two scenario processes were conducted for this study. The first was carried out with a group of Finnish experts and the second involved an international group. A heuristic, semi structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes. The scenario processes reinforced the picture of the future of international biomass and bioenergy markets as a complex and multi layer subject. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The results of the scenario process also opened up new discussion and provided new information and collective views of experts for the purposes of policy makers. An overall view resulting from this scenario analysis are the enormous opportunities relating to the utilisation of biomass as a resource for global energy use in the coming decades. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of technological development to solve global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial

Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

2000-01-01

Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

The impact of traffic emissions on air quality in the Berlin-Brandenburg region - a case study on cycling scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Kuik, F.; Lauer, A.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Butler, T. M.

2016-12-01

Many European cities continue to struggle with exceedances of NO2 limit values at measurement sites near roads, of which a large contribution is attributed to emissions from traffic. In this study, we explore how urban air quality can be improved with different traffic measures using the example of the Berlin-Brandenburg region. In order to simulate urban background air quality we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) at a horizontal resolution of 1km. We use emission input data at a horizontal resolution of 1km obtained by downscaling TNO-MACC III emissions based on local proxy data including population and traffic densities. In addition we use a statistical approach combining the simulated urban background concentrations with information on traffic densities to estimate NO2 at street level. This helps assessing whether the emission scenarios studied here can lead to significant reductions in NO2 concentrations at street level. The emission scenarios in this study represent a range of scenarios in which car traffic is replaced with bicycle traffic. Part of this study was an initial discussion phase with stakeholders, including policy makers and NGOs. The discussions have shown that the different stakeholders are interested in a scientific assessment of the impact of replacing car traffic with bicycle traffic in the Berlin-Brandenburg urban area. Local policy makers responsible for city planning and implementing traffic measures can make best use of scientific modeling results if input data and scenarios are as realistic as possible. For these reasons, the scenarios cover very idealized optimistic ("all passenger cars are replaced by bicycles") and pessimistic ("all cyclists are replaced by cars") scenarios to explore the sensitivity of simulated urban background air quality to these changes, as well as additional scenarios based on city-specific data to analyze more realistic situations. Of particular interest is how these impact

Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

2014-04-01

Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene

2010-01-01

The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

Study on radioactive waste management scenarios in regular maintenance of a fusion reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Someya, Youji; Tobita, Kenji; Yanagihara, Satoshi

2015-01-01

Low-level radioactive waste is generated in large amounts in the operation of a fusion reactor. For this reason, there are needs for the study of radioactive waste management scenarios, as well as the clarification of the function of waste handling facilities in the design phase. This paper describes the management scenarios with a focus on the radioactive waste generated at the time of scheduled maintenance of a nuclear fusion prototype reactor. Based on the temporal change of the residual heat and dose rate of the blanket and diverter, as the furnace equipment associated with induced radioactivity, management period was determined. At this time, the attenuation rate of dose rate and the like of each device are different. So, if maintenance cycle is established for each device and thus storage area is minimized, the control area can be optimized. Based on the 'principle for minimizing radioactive waste,' the reuse of devices is effective in reducing waste. So, in view of a commercial reactor, research and development is required for the establishment of reuse process under high-dose. Since the commitment to radioactive waste is considered to be an important factor in the future for the social acceptance of nuclear fusion reactor development, comprehensive study including the disposal of waste and the reuse of equipment is important. (A.O.)

An environmentally sustainable transport system in Sweden. A scenario study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brokking, P.; Emmelin, L.; Engstroem, M-G.; Nilsson, Jan-Evert; Eriksson, Gunnar; Wikberg, O.

1997-02-01

This is a short version of a scenario study concerning the possibilities to reach an Environmentally Sustainable Transport system in Sweden in a perspective of 30 years. The aim of the scenario study has been to describe one of several possible paths from today`s transport system to an environmentally adopted one. However, this does not imply that the task is to predict how such a transformation can be accomplished. The aim is rather to illustrate what such transformation require in the form of political decisions. The transformation of the transport system in to an environmentally adopted one, is primarily treated as a political problem, and a political perspective has accordingly been chosen for the study. In this English version of the scenario, the carbon dioxide problem is used to illuminate the many conflicts in goals and other problem that will attend an environmental adoption of the Swedish transport system, and to highlight the analytical points of departure for the scenario study. The analysis shows that it is possible to reach the national environmental goals that characterise, with given definitions, an environmentally sustainable transport system. However, this implies many severe political decisions over a long period of time, which in turn, implies a long term national consensus about the importance to reach the overall goal. Other results the scenario points out, is the risk that a policy focused on one sector leads to `solving` a problem by moving it outside systems limitations, and the limitations on a national environmental policy: Being able to count on assistance from other countries through an environmental adoption of the transport system in the European Union or globally, would drastically facilitate the environmental adoption of the Swedish transport system, through, among other things, a more rapid technological development. This indicates the necessity of promoting issues involving transportation and the environment in international

Observations and the Wolf-Rayet evolutionary scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Firmani, C.

1982-01-01

Results of a statistical analysis of massive stars and of WR stars show general agreement with the scenario that identifies the majority of the WR stars with the He-burning evolutionary phases. The duplicity, the morphological properties and the galactic distribution of the WR stars are valuable pieces of evidence that suggest correlations between the different WR types and the ''channels'' defined in the scenario. A rough analysis of the ''traffic through each channel'' is attempted. (Auth.)

Identification of characteristics and frequent scenarios of single-vehicle rollover crashes during pre-ballistic phase; part 1 - A descriptive study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Taewung; Bose, Dipan; Foster, Jon; Bollapragada, Varun; Crandall, Jeff R; Clauser, Mark; Kerrigan, Jason R

2017-10-01

This study aimed to identify common patterns of pre-ballistic vehicle kinematics and roadway characteristics of real-world rollover crashes. Rollover crashes that were enrolled in the National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) between the years 2000 and 2010 were analyzed. A descriptive analysis was performed to understand the characteristics of the pre-ballistic phase. Also, a frequency based pattern analysis was performed using a selection of NASS-CDS variables describing the pre-ballistic vehicle kinematics and roadway characteristics to rank common pathways of rollover crashes. Most case vehicles departed the road due to a loss of control/traction (LOC) (61%). The road departure with LOC was found to be 13.4 times more likely to occur with slippery road conditions compared to dry conditions. The vehicle was typically laterally skidding with yawing prior to a rollover (66%). Most case vehicles tripped over (82%) mostly at roadside/median (69%). The tripping force was applied to the wheels/tires (82%) from the ground (79%). The combination of these six most frequent attributes resulted in the most common scenario, which accounted for 26% of the entire cases. Large proportion of road departure with LOC (61%) implies electronic stability control (ESC) systems being an effective countermeasure for preventing single-vehicle rollover crashes. Furthermore, the correlation between the road departure with LOC and the reduced friction limit suggests the necessity of the performance evaluation of ESC under compromised road surface condition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dlhopolsky, R; Hollmann, R; Mueller, J; Stuhlmann, R [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

1998-12-31

The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dlhopolsky, R.; Hollmann, R.; Mueller, J.; Stuhlmann, R. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

1997-12-31

The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

VEMAP 2: U.S. Daily Climate Change Scenarios

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — VEMAP Phase 2 has developed a number of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient climate...

VEMAP 2: U.S. Daily Climate Change Scenarios

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: VEMAP Phase 2 has developed a number of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient...

Scenarios for the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

1995-06-01

This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

Food scenarios 2025

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundbo, Jon

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

Efficient renewable energy scenarios study for Victoria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Armstrong, Graham

1991-01-01

This study examines the possible evolution of Victorian energy markets over the 1998-2030 period from technical, economic and environmental perspectives. The focus is on the technical and economic potential over the study period for renewable energy and energy efficiency to increase their share of energy markets, through their economic competitiveness with the non-renewables of oil, gas and fossil fulled electricity. The study identifies a range of energy options that have a lower impact on carbon dioxide emissions that current projections for the Victorian energy sector, together with the savings in energy, dollars and carbon dioxide emissions. In addition the macroeconomic implications of the energy paths are estimated. Specifically it examines a scenario (R-efficient renewable) where energy efficiency and renewable energy sources realise their estimated economic potential to displace non-renewable energy over the 1988-2030 period. In addition, a scenario (T-Toronto) is examined where energy markets are pushed somewhat harder, but again on an economic basis, so that what is called the Toronto target of reducing 1988 carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions by 20 per cent by 2005 is attained. It is concluded that over the next forty years there is substantial economic potential in Victoria for significant gains from energy efficiency in all sectors - residential, commercial, industrial and transport - and contributions from renewable energy both in those sectors and in electricity generations. 7 figs., 5 tabs

Model France. Efficiently achieving climate protection targets. Nuclear power phase-out scenario adapted in favour of climate protection; Vorbild Frankreich. Klimaschutzziele effizient erreichen. Ausstiegszenario Kernkraft zugunsten des Klimaschutzes angepasst

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leidinger, Tobias [Luther Rechtsanwaltsgesellschaft, Duesseldorf (Germany)

2017-12-15

In Germany - after an abrupt, legally controversial and in some cases unconstitutional phase-out of nuclear power (''at any price'') - the next phase-out of is now being negotiated among new coalition partners. In France, on the other hand, energy and climate protection seem to be in the clear sense of the word: the French nuclear phase-out scenario is clearly being ''stretched out'' in order to achieve the promised climate protection targets. Reason seems to have the upper hand in France: instead of ''black-and-white scenarios'', one prefers to stick to what is in reality feasible and achievable. In reality, the expansion of renewable energies, the regulation of the transport sector and electricity production from nuclear energy are not opposites, but complement each other in the interests of affordable energy and effective climate protection.

Simulations of KSTAR high performance steady state operation scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Na, Yong-Su; Kessel, C.E.; Park, J.M.; Yi, Sumin; Kim, J.Y.; Becoulet, A.; Sips, A.C.C.

2009-01-01

We report the results of predictive modelling of high performance steady state operation scenarios in KSTAR. Firstly, the capabilities of steady state operation are investigated with time-dependent simulations using a free-boundary plasma equilibrium evolution code coupled with transport calculations. Secondly, the reproducibility of high performance steady state operation scenarios developed in the DIII-D tokamak, of similar size to that of KSTAR, is investigated using the experimental data taken from DIII-D. Finally, the capability of ITER-relevant steady state operation is investigated in KSTAR. It is found that KSTAR is able to establish high performance steady state operation scenarios; β N above 3, H 98 (y, 2) up to 2.0, f BS up to 0.76 and f NI equals 1.0. In this work, a realistic density profile is newly introduced for predictive simulations by employing the scaling law of a density peaking factor. The influence of the current ramp-up scenario and the transport model is discussed with respect to the fusion performance and non-inductive current drive fraction in the transport simulations. As observed in the experiments, both the heating and the plasma current waveforms in the current ramp-up phase produce a strong effect on the q-profile, the fusion performance and also on the non-inductive current drive fraction in the current flattop phase. A criterion in terms of q min is found to establish ITER-relevant steady state operation scenarios. This will provide a guideline for designing the current ramp-up phase in KSTAR. It is observed that the transport model also affects the predictive values of fusion performance as well as the non-inductive current drive fraction. The Weiland transport model predicts the highest fusion performance as well as non-inductive current drive fraction in KSTAR. In contrast, the GLF23 model exhibits the lowest ones. ITER-relevant advanced scenarios cannot be obtained with the GLF23 model in the conditions given in this work

Minor actinides transmutation scenario studies with PWRs, FRs and moderated targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grouiller, J.P.; Pillon, S.; Saint Jean, C. de; Varaine, F.; Leyval, L.; Vambenepe, G.; Carlier, B.

2003-01-01

Using current technologies, we have demonstrated in this study that it is theoretically possible to obtain different minor actinide transmutation scenarios with a significant gain on the waste radiotoxicity inventory. The handling of objects with Am+Cm entails the significant increase of penetrating radiation sources (neutron and γ) whatever mixed scenario is envisioned; the PWR and FR scenario involving the recycling of Am + Cm in the form of targets results in the lowest flow. In the light of these outcomes, the detailed studies has allowed to design a target sub assembly with a high fission rate (90%) and define a drawing up of reprocessing diagram with the plant head, the minor actinide separation processes (PUREX, DIAMEX and SANEX). Some technological difficulties appear in manipulating curium, principally in manufacturing where the wet process ('sol-gel') is not acquired for (Am+Cm). (author)

Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

2014-01-01

Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

Study on the FBR cycle introduction scenario. 4. Evaluation of the FBR cycle introduction scenario from the viewpoints of the fuel cycle requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ono, Kiyoshi; Shiotani, Hiroki; Hirao, Kazunori

2003-07-01

This report is intended to explain the outline of the scenario studies on FBR (Fast Breeder Reactor) cycle introduction. Recently, people value the reduction of environmental impact in addition to the recycle of energy resources and the energy security in these scenario studies. This report summarizes the analysis about the necessity of plutonium recycling in LWR (Light water Reactor) from short-term view and about the necessity of FBR cycle introduction from a long-term view in Japan, by comparing 'FBR scenario' with 'LWR once-through scenario' and 'Pu recycle in LWR scenario', from the viewpoints of cumulative uranium demand, spent fuel storage, radioactive waste arising, etc. It becomes clear that the plutonium recycling in LWR has a good effect on the reduction of spent fuel storage and the cumulative natural uranium demand before FBR cycle introduction, from short-term view (20-30 years). On the other hand, this analysis also shows that there is much effect of FBR deployment not only on saving amount of uranium use and energy security but also on reduction of high-level radioactive waste (spent fuels and vitrified waste) and minor actinide arising, from long-term view (100-200 years). (author)

Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

Design and development of driving simulator scenarios for road validation studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dols Ruiz, J.F.

2016-07-01

In recent years, the number of road-based studies using driving simulators is growing significantly. This allows evaluating controlled situations that otherwise would require disproportionate observations in time and/or cost. The Institute of Design and Manufacturing (IDF) of the Polytechnic University of Valencia (UPV) has developed, in collaboration with the Engineering Research Group Highway (GIIC) of the UPV, a low cost simulator that allows rapid implementation and effectively a new methodology for validation studies of different roads through the implementation in the simulator scenarios of existing roads. This methodology allows the development of new scenarios based on the analysis of a layers-file system. Each layer includes different information from the road, such as mapping, geometry, signaling, aerial photos, etc. The creation of the simulated scenario is very fast based on the geometric design software, making it easier to consulting firms using the system that can evaluate and audit a particular route, obtaining reliable conclusions at minimal cost, even if the road is not actually built. This paper describes the basic structure of the layers generated for developing scenarios and guidelines for the implementation thereof. Finally the application of this methodology to a case of success will be described. (Author)

Ferromagnetic quantum criticality: New aspects from the phase diagram of LaCrGe3

Science.gov (United States)

Taufour, Valentin; Kaluarachchi, Udhara S.; Bud'ko, Sergey L.; Canfield, Paul C.

2018-05-01

Recent theoretical and experimental studies have shown that ferromagnetic quantum criticality is always avoided in clean systems. Two possibilities have been identified. In the first scenario, the ferromagnetic transition becomes of the first order at a tricritical point before being suppressed. A wing structure phase diagram is observed indicating the possibility of a new type of quantum critical point under magnetic field. In a second scenario, a transition to a modulated magnetic phase occurs. Our recent studies on the compound LaCrGe3 illustrate a third scenario where not only a new magnetic phase occurs, but also a change of order of the transition at a tricritical point leading to a wing-structure phase diagram. Careful experimental study of the phase diagram near the tricritical point also illustrates new rules near this type of point.

Feasibility study of advanced operation scenario in KSTAR using CRONOS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, H.-S.; Na, Y.-S.; Bae, Y.S.; Jeon, Y.M.; Kim, S.H.; Artaud, J.-F.

2014-01-01

We report the results of predictive modelling of advanced operation scenarios in KSTAR. Firstly, the operation windows are produced to explore the KSTAR advanced scenarios in the condition of upgrading H/CD mix. Using METIS code, the rough ranges of operation condition of I_P and B_T to utilize for the development of advanced operation scenario scenario are determined. Secondly, the advanced inductive and the advanced tokamak operation scenario of KSTAR are developing with the scaling based and the physics based transport model by using CRONOS to make a suggestion to on-going KSTAR experiment. Thirdly, the dependency of the time of L-H transition on q_0 an q_m_i_n is investigated for the advanced inductive operation scenario. These reliable results can become the useful database for exploring the advanced regime of KSTAR discharges in the future. (author)

Scenarios for future agriculture in Finland: a Delphi study among agri-food sector stakeholders

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. RIKKONEN

2008-12-01

Full Text Available This article presents alternative scenarios for future agriculture in Finland up to 2025. These scenarios are the results of a large Delphi study carried out among Finnish agri-food sector stakeholders. The Delphi panel members gave their future view on desirable and probable futures. From these two dimensions, three scenarios were elaborated through the future images – the subjective future path and the importance analysis. The scenarios represent a technology optimistic “day-dream agriculture”, a probable future as “industrialised agriculture” and an undesirable future path as “drifting agriculture”. Two mini-scenarios are also presented. They are based on a discontinuity event as an unexpected impact of climate change and an analogy event as an ecological breakdown due to the expansive animal disease epidemics. In both mini-scenarios, the directions of storylines are dramatically changed. The scenarios support strategic planning introducing not only one forecast but alternative outcomes as a basis for future strategy and decisions. In this study the scenarios were constructed to address the opportunities as a desired vision and also the threats as to an undesirable future in the agricultural sector. These results bring to the table a Finnish agri-food expert community view of the future directions of relevant key issues in the agricultural policy agenda.;

Comparative scenario study of tropospheric ozone climate interactions using a global model. A 1% global increase rate, the IS92a IPCC scenario and a simplified aircraft traffic increase scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chalita, S [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Service d` Aeronomie; Le Treut, H [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique

1998-12-31

Sensitivity studies have been made to establish the relationship between different scenarios of tropospheric ozone increase and radiative forcing. Some aspects of the ozone-climate interactions for past and future scenarios are investigated. These calculations employ IMAGES tropospheric ozone concentrations for a pre-industrial, present and future atmospheres. The averaged last 10 years of the 25-year seasonal integrations were analyzed. The results of this study are preliminary. Ozone forcing is basically different from the CO{sub 2} forcing, for its regional and temporal structured nature and for its rather weak intensity. (R.P.) 14 refs.

Comparative scenario study of tropospheric ozone climate interactions using a global model. A 1% global increase rate, the IS92a IPCC scenario and a simplified aircraft traffic increase scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chalita, S. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Service d`Aeronomie; Le Treut, H. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique

1997-12-31

Sensitivity studies have been made to establish the relationship between different scenarios of tropospheric ozone increase and radiative forcing. Some aspects of the ozone-climate interactions for past and future scenarios are investigated. These calculations employ IMAGES tropospheric ozone concentrations for a pre-industrial, present and future atmospheres. The averaged last 10 years of the 25-year seasonal integrations were analyzed. The results of this study are preliminary. Ozone forcing is basically different from the CO{sub 2} forcing, for its regional and temporal structured nature and for its rather weak intensity. (R.P.) 14 refs.

Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haegermark, H; Bergmark, M

1995-06-01

This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

Heterogeneous Network Evolution Studies for a Dense Urban High Rise Scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sanchez, Maria Laura Luque; Maternia, Michal; Vejlgaard, Benny

2014-01-01

This paper studies the capability of Long-Term Evolution-Advanced (LTE-A) together with WiFi 802.11ac to accommodate the traffic growths of 80x, 500x and 1000x in a high rise building scenario. It provides a guideline on the configuration of the spectrum and the best deployment options for the ev......This paper studies the capability of Long-Term Evolution-Advanced (LTE-A) together with WiFi 802.11ac to accommodate the traffic growths of 80x, 500x and 1000x in a high rise building scenario. It provides a guideline on the configuration of the spectrum and the best deployment options...

Scenario visualisation for participatory landscape planning - a study from Denmark

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tress, B.; Tress, G.

2003-01-01

Increasingly, different functions must be integrated simultaneously in the Danish countryside, demanding a common effort of planners, decision-makers, researchers, and stakeholders. The study proposes a transdisciplinary method that combines scenario technique, photorealistic visualisation, and

Scenario Study on PM emission Reduction in Cement Industry

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Qian; Chen, Xiaojun; Xia, Xin; Wang, Lijuan; Wang, Huili; Jin, Ling; Yan, Zhen

2018-01-01

Cement industry is one of the high pollution industries in China. Evaluation of the primary particulate matter (PM) emission status and the reduction potential is not only important for our understanding of the effectiveness of current pollution control measures but also vital for future policy design. In this study, PM emitted from cement producing process in 2014 was calculated using an emission factor method. Three PM emission control scenarios were set up considering source control, process management and end-of-pipe treatment, and the PM emission reduction by 2020 under the three scenarios was predicted, respectively. In 2014, the primary PM emission from cement industry was 1.95 million tons. By 2020, the productions of cement and clinker were expected to increase by 12% and 7%, respectively, and the PM emission would increase by about 10%. By implementation of GB4915-2013 and comprehensive control of fugitive PM emission, the PM emission would probably be reduced by 34%. Another 7% decrease would be expected from source control. The second scenario can be considered as an assessment of the effectiveness of the revised emission standard, and this research can be used as a technical support to the environmental management authorities to make relevant policies.

Identification and Selection of Alternative Scenarios in LCA Studies of Integrated Waste Management Systems: A Review of Main Issues and Perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Raggi

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Life Cycle Assessment (LCA is a decision support tool that can be used to assess the environmental performance of an integrated waste management system or to identify the system with the best performance through a comparative analysis of different scenarios. The results of the analysis depend primarily on how the scenarios to be compared are defined, that is on which waste fractions are assumed to be sent to certain treatments/destinations and in what amounts. This paper reviews LCAs of integrated waste management systems with the aim of exploring how the scenarios to be compared are defined in the preliminary phase of an LCA. This critical review highlighted that various criteria, more or less subjective, are generally used for the definition of scenarios. Furthermore, the number of scenarios identified and compared is generally limited; this may entail that only the best option among a limited set of possibilities can be selected, instead of identifying the best of all possible combinations. As a result, the advisability of identifying an integrated life cycle-based methodological approach that allows finding the most environmentally sound scenario among all of those that are theoretically possible is stressed.

Combining Climate Scenarios and Risk Management Approach—A Finnish Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riitta Molarius

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Climate change impacts on nature and the environment have been widely discussed and studied. Traditionally, a company’s continuity management is based on risk analysis. There are also attempts to implement scenario-based methods in the risk management procedures of companies. For industrial decision makers, it is vital to acknowledge the impacts of climate change with regards to their adaptation strategies. However, a scenario-based approach is not always the most effective way to analyze these risks. This paper investigates the integration of scenario and risk-based methods for a company’s adaptation planning. It considers the uncertainties of the climate change scenarios and the recognized risks as well as suitable adaptation strategies. The paper presents the results of climate risk analysis prepared for two Finnish hydropower plants. The introduced method was first piloted in 2008 and then again in 2015. The update of the analysis pointed out that at the company level, the climate risks and other risks originating from governmental or political decisions form an intertwined wholeness where the origin of the risk is difficult to outline. It seems that, from the business point of view, the main adaptation strategies suggested by the integrated risk and scenarios approach are those that support buying “safety margins” in new investments and reducing decision time horizons. Both of these adaptation strategies provide an advantage in the circumstances where also political decisions and societal changes have a great effect on decision making.

Scientific data and climate scenarios. Study report nr 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alex, Bastien; Baillat, Alice; Francois Gemenne; Jean Jouzel

2017-05-01

The objective of this report is to present climate evolutions and their impacts according to two warming scenarios: a 2 degree increase of the average surface temperature by 2100 (i.e. the most optimistic IPCC scenario), and a 5 degree increase by 2100 (the most pessimistic scenario). As far as possible, physical, social and economic, and health impacts are assessed by 2030 and 2050. The authors notice that the differences between both scenarios are hardly discernible by 2030, but more obviously by 2050. After a brief recall on IPCC scenarios, a first part addresses the evolutions of the world climate by considering the atmosphere (temperature increase, modification of precipitation regimes), seas and oceans (temperature, currents and thermal circulation, ocean acidification, seal level rise), extreme climate events (observations and trends, main impacts on populations and infrastructures), and the cryo-sphere (observations and impacts). The second part discusses regional predictions in terms of trends and impacts for metropolitan France and its overseas territories, for Africa, and for the Asia-Pacific region. The last part briefly discusses the possibly necessary evolution of the typology chosen to determine sources of vulnerability and the level of exposure to different risks. Many appendices propose more detailed presentations on specific issues and examples. A summarised version of the report is also provided

A real case study on transportation scenario comparison

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tsoukiás A.

2002-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a real case study dealing with the comparison of transport scenarios. The study is conducted within a larger project concerning the establishment of the maritime traffic policy in Greece. The paper presents the problem situation and an appropriate problem formulation. Moreover a detailed version of the evaluation model is presented in the paper. The model consists of a complex hierarchy of evaluation models enabling us to take into account the multiple dimensions and points of view of the actors involved in the evaluations.

Human scenarios for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Napier, B.A.; Harper, B.L.; Lane, N.K.; Strenge, D.L.; Spivey, R.B.

1996-03-01

Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Impact Assessment (CRCIA) was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to humans. Because humans affected by the Columbia river are involved in a wide range of activities, various scenarios have been developed on which to base the risk assessments. The scenarios illustrate the range of activities possible by members of the public coming in contact with the Columbia River so that the impact of contaminants in the river on human health can be assessed. Each scenario illustrates particular activity patterns by a specific group. Risk will be assessed at the screening level for each scenario. This report defines the scenarios and the exposure factors that will be the basis for estimating the potential range of risk to human health from Hanford-derived radioactive as well as non-radioactive contaminants associated with the Columbia River.

Human scenarios for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Napier, B.A.; Harper, B.L.; Lane, N.K.; Strenge, D.L.; Spivey, R.B.

1996-03-01

Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Impact Assessment (CRCIA) was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to humans. Because humans affected by the Columbia river are involved in a wide range of activities, various scenarios have been developed on which to base the risk assessments. The scenarios illustrate the range of activities possible by members of the public coming in contact with the Columbia River so that the impact of contaminants in the river on human health can be assessed. Each scenario illustrates particular activity patterns by a specific group. Risk will be assessed at the screening level for each scenario. This report defines the scenarios and the exposure factors that will be the basis for estimating the potential range of risk to human health from Hanford-derived radioactive as well as non-radioactive contaminants associated with the Columbia River

Challenges and opportunities of international biomass market: Findings from a scenario study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heinimoe, J. (Lappeenranta University of Technology, Mikkeli (Finland)); Ojanen, V.; Koessi, T. (Lappeenranta University of Technology, Lappeenranta (Finland))

2007-07-01

The markets of biomass are developing rapidly and becoming more international. Although biomass has potential to become a more important source of energy, the remarkable increase in biomass use for energy needs parallel and positive development in several sectors and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. To support the positive development of market and to make the most of the development it is needed to have understanding about the market dynamics. The objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020 and based on the scenario process to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. A heuristic semi structured approach was applied in the scenario processes. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The scenario analysis shows the key issues on the field: global economic growth including the growing need of energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of the technological development to solve the global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for the global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. (orig.)

Energy policy on shaky ground? A study of CCS-scenarios

OpenAIRE

Bryngelsson, Mårten; Hansson, Anders

2009-01-01

Scenarios play an important role for the societal acceptance of CCS. This paper looks into influential reports containing CCS scenarios and analyses results, key assumptions and drivers for CCS' deployment. Significant uncertainties regarding CCS' development were in several cases excluded or marginalized. Despite these shortcomings, scenarios support a massive deployment of CCS and reflect an undivided optimism. If CCS would fail to meet the high expectations a backlash could follow. Indicat...

Mise en Scene: Conversion of Scenarios to CSP Traces for the Requirements-to-Design-to-Code Project

Science.gov (United States)

Carter. John D.; Gardner, William B.; Rash, James L.; Hinchey, Michael G.

2007-01-01

The "Requirements-to-Design-to-Code" (R2D2C) project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center is based on deriving a formal specification expressed in Communicating Sequential Processes (CSP) notation from system requirements supplied in the form of CSP traces. The traces, in turn, are to be extracted from scenarios, a user-friendly medium often used to describe the required behavior of computer systems under development. This work, called Mise en Scene, defines a new scenario medium (Scenario Notation Language, SNL) suitable for control-dominated systems, coupled with a two-stage process for automatic translation of scenarios to a new trace medium (Trace Notation Language, TNL) that encompasses CSP traces. Mise en Scene is offered as an initial solution to the problem of the scenarios-to-traces "D2" phase of R2D2C. A survey of the "scenario" concept and some case studies are also provided.

Water within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Constraints and the Impact on Future Global Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Davies, E. G.; Calvin, K. V.; Kim, S. H.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

2017-12-01

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) represent the next generation of future global change scenarios and their inclusion in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios reinforces the importance of a complete understanding of the SSPs. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the effects of limited water supplies on future withdrawals at regional and water basin scales across all SSPs in combination with various climate mitigation scenarios. Water supply is calculated using a global hydrologic model and water data from five ISI-MIP models across the four RCP scenarios. When water constraints are incorporated, our results show that water withdrawals are reduced by as much as 40% across all SSP scenarios without climate policies. As climate policies are imposed and become more stringent, water withdrawals increase in regions already affected by water stress in order to allow for greater biomass production. The results of this research show the importance of including water resource constraints within the SSP scenarios for establishing water withdrawal scenarios under a wide range of scenarios including different climate policies. The results will also provide data products - such as gridded land use and water demand estimates - of potential interest to the impact, adaptation, and vulnerability community following the SSP scenarios.

Project SAFE. Update of the SFR-1 safety assessment. Phase 1. Appendix A2: Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M.

1998-01-01

This appendix gives a short description of the scenario methodology adopted in the previous safety assessment of SFR. Since then new methodologies for developing structured descriptions of how processes and interactions between processes affect the evolution of a repository system. Two such methods are briefly described. These methods are very similar, but they differ in the way the system is graphically structured. One of the methods is based on Process Influence Diagrams, PID, and the other on Interaction matrices. It is proposed that the method based on Interaction matrices is used for the scenario work in project SAFE. The main reason for this is that the method already has been applied by SKB, which means that it will be possible to use already existing procedures and documentation systems. The proposed procedure involves the development of Interaction matrices for a defined Reference scenario and the use of these matrices to illustrate the effect of different Scenario initiating FEPs. The proposed procedure is described in this appendix

Implementation and outcome evaluation of high-fidelity simulation scenarios to integrate cognitive and psychomotor skills for Korean nursing students.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahn, Heejung; Kim, Hyun-Young

2015-05-01

This study is involved in designing high-fidelity simulations reflecting the Korean nursing education environment. In addition, it evaluated the simulations by nursing students' learning outcomes and perceptions of the simulation design features. A quantitative design was used in two separate phases. For the first phase, five nursing experts participated in verifying the appropriateness of two simulation scenarios that reflected the intended learning objectives. For the second phase, 69 nursing students in the third year of a bachelor's degree at a nursing school participated in evaluating the simulations and were randomized according to their previous course grades. The first phase verified the two simulation scenarios using a questionnaire. The second phase evaluated students' perceptions of the simulation design, self-confidence, and critical thinking skills using a quasi-experimental post-test design. ANCOVA was used to compare the experimental and control groups, and correlation coefficient analysis was used to determine the correlation among them. We created 2 simulation scenarios to integrate cognitive and psychomotor skills according to the learning objectives and clinical environment in Korea. The experimental group had significantly higher scores on self-confidence in the first scenario. The positive correlations between perceptions of the simulation design features, self-confidence, and critical thinking skill scores were statistically significant. Students with a more positive perception of the design features of the simulations had better learning outcomes. Based on this result, simulations need to be designed and implemented with more differentiation in order to be perceived more appropriately by students. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study on probability distribution of fire scenarios in risk assessment to emergency evacuation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu Guanquan; Wang Jinhui

2012-01-01

Event tree analysis (ETA) is a frequently-used technique to analyze the probability of probable fire scenario. The event probability is usually characterized by definite value. It is not appropriate to use definite value as these estimates may be the result of poor quality statistics and limited knowledge. Without addressing uncertainties, ETA will give imprecise results. The credibility of risk assessment will be undermined. This paper presents an approach to address event probability uncertainties and analyze probability distribution of probable fire scenario. ETA is performed to construct probable fire scenarios. The activation time of every event is characterized as stochastic variable by considering uncertainties of fire growth rate and other input variables. To obtain probability distribution of probable fire scenario, Markov Chain is proposed to combine with ETA. To demonstrate the approach, a case study is presented.

Mission Analysis for the Don Quijote Phase-A Study

Science.gov (United States)

Cano, Juan L.; Sanchez, Mariano; Cornara, Stefania; Carnelli, Ian

2007-01-01

The Don Quijote Phase-A study is a definition study funded by ESA and devoted to the analysis of the possibilities to deflect a Near Earth Object (NEO) in the range of 300-800 m diameter. DEIMOS Space S.L. and EADS Astrium have teamed up within this study to form one of the three consortia that have analyzed these aspects for ESA. Target asteroids for the mission are 1989 ML, 2002 AT4 and Apophis. This paper presents the mission analysis activities within the consortium providing: low-thrust interplanetary rendezvous Orbiter trajectories to the target asteroids, ballistic interplanetary trajectories for the Impactor, Orbiter arrival description at the asteroids, Orbiter stable orbits characterization at the asteroid, deflection determination by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) as well as the mission timelines and overall mission scenarios.

Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hamilton, M.C.; Thekdi, S.A.; Jenicek, E.M.

2013-01-01

Management of natural resources and infrastructure systems for sustainability is complicated by uncertainties in the human and natural environment. Moreover, decisions are further complicated by contradictory views, values, and concerns that are rarely made explicit. Scenario analysis can play...... of emergent conditions and help to avoid regret and belated action. The purpose of this paper is to present several case studies in natural resources and infrastructure systems management where scenario analysis has been used to aide decision making under uncertainty. The case studies include several resource...... and infrastructure systems: (1) water resources (2) land-use corridors (3) energy infrastructure, and (4) coastal climate change adaptation. The case studies emphasize a participatory approach, where scenario analysis becomes a means of incorporating diverse stakeholder concerns and experience. This approach...

Energy and the Presidential elections: deciphering reports and scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marignac, Yves; Dessus, Benjamin; Laponche, Bernard; Ruedinger, Andreas; Marquet, Andre; Zerbib, Jean-Claude; Quetel, Ghislain; Guillemette, Andre

2012-03-01

After a comment of the Fukushima accident and its implications for nuclear energy, this issue proposes a critical review of various reports and scenarios on energy perspectives: a report by the ASN on 'Complementary safety assessments' (critical analysis of these assessments, weaknesses of the ASN analysis), a report by the French Court of Audit or 'Cour des Comptes' (past, current and future expenses, assets), the Commission Energies 2050 study (on the Europeans and world energy context, on the future on the French energy mix), a study by the French Union of Electricity (Electricity 2030: which choices for France?), a note by the CEA on the assessment of phasing out nuclear. Additional contributions propose a discussion of costs and conditions of phasing out nuclear, and a presentation of La Hague pools (their design, their management, their ability to withstand earthquakes, their other safety criteria)

Phase transitions in restricted Boltzmann machines with generic priors

Science.gov (United States)

Barra, Adriano; Genovese, Giuseppe; Sollich, Peter; Tantari, Daniele

2017-10-01

We study generalized restricted Boltzmann machines with generic priors for units and weights, interpolating between Boolean and Gaussian variables. We present a complete analysis of the replica symmetric phase diagram of these systems, which can be regarded as generalized Hopfield models. We underline the role of the retrieval phase for both inference and learning processes and we show that retrieval is robust for a large class of weight and unit priors, beyond the standard Hopfield scenario. Furthermore, we show how the paramagnetic phase boundary is directly related to the optimal size of the training set necessary for good generalization in a teacher-student scenario of unsupervised learning.

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

to a similar audience, namely the emissions scenario communities that are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. His focus is primarily on a set of concerns that need to be addressed if the new set of socio-economic and emissions scenario products are to adequately support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research. Pitcher flags issues associated with assessment and measurement of economic growth, challenges associated with downscaling long-term, global scenarios to finer geographic and time scales, and possible ways to grapple with probability and uncertainty in scenario analyses. Garb et al (2008) shift focus to the process aspects of scenarios, focusing on how scenarios simultaneously shape and embed their social contexts. They outline and give examples from a research agenda, drawing on concepts and methods from sociology, political science, and science and technology studies, aimed at redressing the growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the quantitative components of scenarios on the one hand, and the continued simplicity of our understandings of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled on the other. Focusing on the treatment of equity concerns in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Baer (2009) offers a concrete example of how particular social assumptions and definitions of equity are built into scenarios which then create particular worldviews about rights and responsibilities. Baer argues that incorporating distributions of income within—and not only between—countries in quantitative scenario exercises makes visible questions regarding the assignment of rights and the distribution of costs and benefits; such equity considerations, he argues, are central to engendering the cooperation necessary to address the climate crisis. For Parson (2008

Renewable energy technology portfolio planning with scenario analysis: A case study for Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, T.-Y.; Yu, Oliver S.; Hsu, George Jyh-yih; Hsu, Fang-Ming; Sung, W.-N.

2009-01-01

This paper presents the results of a case study of applying a systematic and proven process of technology portfolio planning with the use of scenario analysis to renewable energy developments in Taiwan. The planning process starts with decision values of technology development based on a survey of society leaders. It then generates, based on expert opinions and literature search, a set of major technology alternatives, which in this study include: wind energy, photovoltaic, bio-energy, solar thermal power, ocean energy, and geothermal energy. Through a committee of technical experts with diversified professional backgrounds, the process in this study next constructs three scenarios ('Season in the Sun', 'More Desire than Energy', and 'Castle in the Air') to encompass future uncertainties in the relationships between the technology alternatives and the decision values. Finally, through a second committee of professionals, the process assesses the importance and risks of these alternative technologies and develops a general strategic plan for the renewable energy technology portfolio that is responsive and robust for the future scenarios. The most important contributions of this paper are the clear description of the systematic process of technology portfolio planning and scenario analysis, the detailed demonstration of their application through a case study on the renewable energy development in Taiwan, and the valuable results and insights gained from the application.

Scenario approximation in a phenomenological study in Mexico: experience report.

Science.gov (United States)

Guerrero-Castañeda, Raúl Fernando; Menezes, Tânia Maria de Oliva; Vargas, Ma Guadalupe Ojeda

2017-01-01

To report our experience using scenario approximation in a phenomenological study of nursing in Mexico. Experience report on scenario approximation to coexist with elderly in order to select the participants of a phenomenological study. During a four-month period in 2016, visits were carried out two groups of elderly individuals where several activities were carried out. Coexistence with the elderly throughout accompaniment in the groups' activities together with joint dialogue allowed selection of those who corresponded to the characteristics of the study objective. Scenario approximation is necessary in phenomenological studies, not only for creating empathy among the participants but also for the researchers to immerse themselves in the phenomenon under study, as shown by the first approaches of the researcher. Relatar la experiencia del acercamiento al escenario de un estudio fenomenológico en enfermería en México. Relato de experiencia sobre el acercamiento al escenario de estudio para convivir con adultos mayores con la finalidad de seleccionar a los participantes de un estudio fenomenológico. Se llevaron a cabo visitas durante el año 2016, en un periodo de cuatro meses a dos grupos de adultos mayores en donde se realizaron diversas actividades. La convivencia con los adultos mayores a través del acompañamiento en las actividades que realizaban en los grupos y el diálogo conjunto permitió seleccionar a aquellos que respondían a las características del objeto de estudio. Es necesaria la aproximación al escenario de estudios fenomenológicos, no sólo con la finalidad de ganar empatía de los participantes sino para sumergirse en el fenómeno de estudio, mismo que se va mostrando desde los primeros acercamientos del investigador.

Mars Scenario-Based Visioning: Logistical Optimization of Transportation Architectures

Science.gov (United States)

1999-01-01

The purpose of this conceptual design investigation is to examine transportation forecasts for future human Wu missions to Mars. - Scenario-Based Visioning is used to generate possible future demand projections. These scenarios are then coupled with availability, cost, and capacity parameters for indigenously designed Mars Transfer Vehicles (solar electric, nuclear thermal, and chemical propulsion types) and Earth-to-Orbit launch vehicles (current, future, and indigenous) to provide a cost-conscious dual-phase launch manifest to meet such future demand. A simulator named M-SAT (Mars Scenario Analysis Tool) is developed using this method. This simulation is used to examine three specific transportation scenarios to Mars: a limited "flaus and footprints" mission, a More ambitious scientific expedition similar to an expanded version of the Design Reference Mission from NASA, and a long-term colonization scenario. Initial results from the simulation indicate that chemical propulsion systems might be the architecture of choice for all three scenarios. With this mind, "what if' analyses were performed which indicated that if nuclear production costs were reduced by 30% for the colonization scenario, then the nuclear architecture would have a lower life cycle cost than the chemical. Results indicate that the most cost-effective solution to the Mars transportation problem is to plan for segmented development, this involves development of one vehicle at one opportunity and derivatives of that vehicle at subsequent opportunities.

Resource management and operations in central North Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary November 12-13, 2015, Bismarck, ND

Science.gov (United States)

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor; Symstad, Amy J.; Ray, Andrea; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Miller, Brian; Rowland, Erika

2016-01-01

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the central North Dakota focal area, with an emphasis on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site. The report explainsscenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the central North Dakota focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held November 12-13, 2015 in Bismarck, ND, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

Regional climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-01-01

Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Burtles, Jim

2015-01-01

This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity.

Scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2014-12-01

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

Multilingual and Multicultural Task-Based Learning Scenarios: A Pilot Study from the MAGICC Project

Science.gov (United States)

Álvarez, Inma; Pérez-Cavana, María Luisa

2015-01-01

In this article we report on the results of a pilot study on the use of task-based multilingual and multicultural professional scenarios for higher education teachers and learners at BA and MA level. The scenarios reflect new learning outcomes and assessment criteria for the presently under-conceptualised domain of communication in multilingual…

Resource management and operations in southwest South Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary January 20-21, 2016, Rapid City, SD

Science.gov (United States)

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.; Symstad, Amy J.; Ray, Andrea; Miller, Brian; Cross, Molly; Rowland, Erika

2016-01-01

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the southwest South Dakota grasslands focal area, with an emphasis on Badlands National Park and Buffalo Gap National Grassland. The report explains scenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held January 20-21, 2016 in Rapid City, South Dakota, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

Phasing out nuclear, a credible scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chatelain, C.; Mulot, R.; Chauveau, L.; Hait, J.F.

2011-01-01

Based on data from different companies, institutions and associations involved in nuclear energy (either in its production or in its critic), this article comments the possible energy savings (50 to 64%) that may be reached in the different sectors, and more particularly in the building sector and in electrical equipment. It discusses the potential production from solar, wind and biogas energy. It notices that phasing out nuclear is possible by 2030-2050, but would entail an increase of electricity prices. The German approach is presented. An article comments the anger of Fukushima Japanese farmers and evokes the slow building up of a solidarity network between France and Japan. A last article comments the authorization given to a further exploitation of the Fessenheim nuclear power plant (ten more years)

A synthesis on the HTR scenario studies at CEA - HTR2008-58059

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boucher, L.; Greneche, D.

2008-01-01

The aim of the studies is to assess the impact of the deployment of an HTR park replacing one part of the current PWR reactors. The other part of the current park is replaced by EPRs. In these scenarios, the annual electricity production is constant at 400 TWhe. This value corresponds roughly to the present nuclear electricity production in France. From 2002 to 2007, an important program study on HTR has been carried out by CEA and AREVA NC under the joint CEA - AREVA NC project 'prospective studies on the management of Plutonium and the back end of the cycle'. This program addresses core physic and scenario studies, and also the back end of the fuel cycle : reprocessing of spent fuel and HTR waste management. Some core physic studies have already been presented in the reference [1]. This paper presents the results of the scenario studies using two concepts: either the standard core of the Gas Turbine Modular Helium Reactor concept (GTMHR) with Uranium or Plutonium fuel, or the Multiple Fuel Rows Core (MFRC) dedicated to the actinide burning. The insertion of a new concept (fuel, reactor, process) must be evaluated in the global electronuclear system with an analysis of the impact on the fuel cycle (Enrichment, Fuel Fabrication, Reactor, Processing, Interim Storage, Waste storage). The scenario studies are used to evaluate different solutions to manage nuclear materials (uranium, plutonium) and wastes (minor actinides and fission products), from the present situation in France (closed cycle with storage of used MOX fuels) until the final equilibrium: mixed nuclear park with EPR and HTR. These studies allow to calculate material flows and inventories of these elements in each step of the fuel cycle. The simulation of transient scenarios from the present situation to the future situation is performed with the COSI code. HTR reactors feature a high flexibility with regard to fuel cycle options. Several versions of core have been investigated, with different type of

Scenarios and innovative systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-11-01

The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

CERN Document Server

Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

2016-01-01

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

Synchronization scenarios in the Winfree model of coupled oscillators

Science.gov (United States)

Gallego, Rafael; Montbrió, Ernest; Pazó, Diego

2017-10-01

Fifty years ago Arthur Winfree proposed a deeply influential mean-field model for the collective synchronization of large populations of phase oscillators. Here we provide a detailed analysis of the model for some special, analytically tractable cases. Adopting the thermodynamic limit, we derive an ordinary differential equation that exactly describes the temporal evolution of the macroscopic variables in the Ott-Antonsen invariant manifold. The low-dimensional model is then thoroughly investigated for a variety of pulse types and sinusoidal phase response curves (PRCs). Two structurally different synchronization scenarios are found, which are linked via the mutation of a Bogdanov-Takens point. From our results, we infer a general rule of thumb relating pulse shape and PRC offset with each scenario. Finally, we compare the exact synchronization threshold with the prediction of the averaging approximation given by the Kuramoto-Sakaguchi model. At the leading order, the discrepancy appears to behave as an odd function of the PRC offset.

Research on decommissioning of nuclear facilities 2. Study on optimum scenario using the AHP (Joint research)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shibahara, Yuji; Morishita, Yoshitsugu; Ishigami, Tsutomu; Yanagihara, Satoshi; Arita, Yuji

2013-01-01

To implement a decommissioning project reasonably, it is necessary and important to calculate project management data beforehand as well as to select an optimum dismantling scenario among various scenarios postulated. Little study on the subject of selecting an optimum scenario has been carried out, and it is one of the most important issues in terms of decision making. In FY 2009, Japan Atomic Energy Agency and University of Fukui launched the joint research of a decision making method which is important to determine a decommissioning plan. The purpose of this research is to formulate a methodology for selecting an optimum dismantling scenario among various scenarios postulated based on calculated results of project management data for FUGEN. Project management data for several dismantling scenarios postulated at FUGEN were evaluated based on actual dismantling work for feedwater heater at FUGEN, and an optimum scenario was discussed using the AHP, one of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Methods. This report describes the results of the joint research in FY 2010. (author)

A scenario-driven approach for value, risk and cost analysis in system architecting for innovation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ionita, M.T.; America, P.H.M.; Hammer, D.K.; Obbink, J.H.; Trienekens, J.J.M.; Magee, J.; Szyperski, C.; Bosch, J.

2004-01-01

We present a quantitative method for scenario-driven value, risk, and cost analysis when proposing new system architectures for innovation projects. The method helps to articulate the relative benefits and/or disadvantages of the proposed set of scenarios in the early architecting phases of a new

Magnetic phase transitions in two-dimensional frustrated Cu3R(SeO3)2O2Cl. Spectroscopic study

Science.gov (United States)

Klimin, S. A.; Budkin, I. V.

2017-01-01

Using optical study of electronic spectra of rare-earth (RE) ions, magnetic phase transitions in the low-dimensional frustrated RE magnets Cu3R(SeO3)2O2Cl (R = Sm, Yb, Er, Nd, Pr, Eu) were investigated. Phase transitions were registered either by splittings of crystal-field (CF) doublets or by repulsion of CF levels of f-ions in a staggered magnetic field. Different scenarios of magnetic order in isostructural compounds of the francisite family are discussed.

Identifying Effective Design Approaches to Allocate Genotypes in Two-Phase Designs: A Case Study in Pelargonium zonale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heike Molenaar

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Robust phenotypic data allow adequate statistical analysis and are crucial for any breeding purpose. Such data is obtained from experiments laid out to best control local variation. Additionally, experiments frequently involve two phases, each contributing environmental sources of variation. For example, in a former experiment we conducted to evaluate production related traits in Pelargonium zonale, there were two consecutive phases, each performed in a different greenhouse. Phase one involved the propagation of the breeding strains to obtain the stem cutting count, and phase two involved the assessment of root formation. The evaluation of the former study raised questions regarding options for improving the experimental layout: (i Is there a disadvantage to using exactly the same design in both phases? (ii Instead of generating a separate layout for each phase, can the design be optimized across both phases, such that the mean variance of a pair-wise treatment difference (MVD can be decreased? To answer these questions, alternative approaches were explored to generate two-phase designs either in phase-wise order (Option 1 or across phases (Option 2. In Option 1 we considered the scenarios (i using in both phases the same experimental design and (ii randomizing each phase separately. In Option 2, we considered the scenarios (iii generating a single design with eight replicates and splitting these among the two phases, (iv separating the block structure across phases by dummy coding, and (v design generation with optimal alignment of block units in the two phases. In both options, we considered the same or different block structures in each phase. The designs were evaluated by the MVD obtained by the intra-block analysis and the joint inter-block–intra-block analysis. The smallest MVD was most frequently obtained for designs generated across phases rather than for each phase separately, in particular when both phases of the design were

Identifying Effective Design Approaches to Allocate Genotypes in Two-Phase Designs: A Case Study in Pelargonium zonale.

Science.gov (United States)

Molenaar, Heike; Boehm, Robert; Piepho, Hans-Peter

2017-01-01

Robust phenotypic data allow adequate statistical analysis and are crucial for any breeding purpose. Such data is obtained from experiments laid out to best control local variation. Additionally, experiments frequently involve two phases, each contributing environmental sources of variation. For example, in a former experiment we conducted to evaluate production related traits in Pelargonium zonale , there were two consecutive phases, each performed in a different greenhouse. Phase one involved the propagation of the breeding strains to obtain the stem cutting count, and phase two involved the assessment of root formation. The evaluation of the former study raised questions regarding options for improving the experimental layout: (i) Is there a disadvantage to using exactly the same design in both phases? (ii) Instead of generating a separate layout for each phase, can the design be optimized across both phases, such that the mean variance of a pair-wise treatment difference (MVD) can be decreased? To answer these questions, alternative approaches were explored to generate two-phase designs either in phase-wise order (Option 1) or across phases (Option 2). In Option 1 we considered the scenarios (i) using in both phases the same experimental design and (ii) randomizing each phase separately. In Option 2, we considered the scenarios (iii) generating a single design with eight replicates and splitting these among the two phases, (iv) separating the block structure across phases by dummy coding, and (v) design generation with optimal alignment of block units in the two phases. In both options, we considered the same or different block structures in each phase. The designs were evaluated by the MVD obtained by the intra-block analysis and the joint inter-block-intra-block analysis. The smallest MVD was most frequently obtained for designs generated across phases rather than for each phase separately, in particular when both phases of the design were separated with a

The Potential Impacts of a Scenario of C02-Induced Climatic Change on Ontafio, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, S. J.; Allsopp, T. R.

1988-07-01

In 1984, Environment Canada, Ontario Region, with financial and expert support from the Canadian Climate Program, initiated an interdisciplinary pilot study to investigate the potential impact, on Ontario, of a climate scenario which might be anticipated under doubling of atmospheric C02 conditions.There were many uncertainties involved in the climate scenario development and the impacts modeling. Time and resource constraints restricted this study to one climate scenario and to the selection of several available models that could be adapted to these impact studies. The pilot study emphasized the approach and process required to investigate potential regional impacts in an interdisciplinary manner, rather than to produce a forecast of the future.The climate scenario chosen was adapted from experimental model results produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), coupled with current climate normals. Gridded monthly mean temperatures and precipitation were then used to develop projected biophysical effects. For example, existing physical and/or statistical models were adapted to determine impacts on the Great Lakes net basin supplies, levels and outflows, streamflow subbasin, snowfall and length of snow season.The second phase of the study addressed the impacts of the climate system scenario on natural resources and resource dependent activities. For example, the impacts of projected decreased lake levels and outflows on commercial navigation and hydroelectric generation were assessed. The impacts of the climate scenario on municipal water use, residential beating and cooling energy requirements opportunities and constraints for food production and tourism and recreation were determined quantitatively where models and methodologies were available, otherwise, qualitatively.First order interdependencies of the biophysical effects of the climate scenario and resource dependent activities were evaluated qualitatively in a workshop format culminating in a

Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Braun, Kimberly

1997-01-01

.... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

Need for Outcome Scenario Analysis of Clinical Trials in Diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Verdugo, Rosa; Erbach, Michael; Schnell, Oliver

2017-03-01

Since the FDA requirement for cardiovascular safety of all new antihyperglycemic drugs to enter the market, the number and extent of phase 3 clinical trials has markedly increased. Unexpected trial results imply an enormous economic, personal and time cost and has deleterious effects over R&D. To prevent unforeseen developments in clinical trials, we recommend performing a comprehensive prospective outcome scenario analysis before launching the trial. In this commentary, we discuss the most important factors to take in consideration for prediction of clinical trial outcome scenarios and propose a theoretical model for decision making.

Development of ITER 15 MA ELMy H-mode Inductive Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

C. E. Kessel, D. Campbell, Y. Gribov, G. Saibene, G. Ambrosino, T. Casper, M. Cavinato, H. Fujieda, R. Hawryluk, L. D. Horton, A. Kavin, R. Kharyrutdinov, F. Koechl, J. Leuer, A. Loarte, P. J. Lomas, T. Luce, V. Lukash, M. Mattei, I.Nunes, V. Parail, A. Polevoi, A. Portone, R. Sartori, A.C.C. Sips, P. R. Thomas, A. Welander and J. Wesley

2008-01-01

The poloidal field (PF) coil system on ITER, which provides both feedforward and feedback control of plasma position, shape, and current, is a critical element for achieving mission performance. Analysis of PF capabilities has focused on the 15 MA Q = 10 scenario with a 300-500 s flattop burn phase. The operating space available for the 15 MA ELMy H-mode plasma discharges in ITER and upgrades to the PF coils or associated systems to establish confidence that ITER mission objectives can be reached have been identified. Time dependent self-consistent free-boundary calculations were performed to examine the impact of plasma variability, discharge programming, and plasma disturbances. Based on these calculations a new reference scenario was developed based upon a large bore initial plasma, early divertor transition, low level heating in L-mode, and a late H-mode onset. Equilibrium analyses for this scenario indicate that the original PF coil limitations do not allow low li (<0.8) operation or lower flux states, and the flattop burn durations were predicted to be less than the desired 400 s. This finding motivates the expansion of the operating space, considering several upgrade options to the PF coils. Analysis was also carried out to examine the feedback current reserve required in the CS and PF coils during a series of disturbances and a feasibility assessment of the 17 MA scenario was undertaken. Results of the studies show that the new scenario and modified PF system will allow a wide range of 15 MA 300-500 s operation and more limited but finite 17 MA operation

Gravitational waves from the asymmetric-dark-matter generating phase transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baldes, Iason

2017-02-01

The baryon asymmetry, together with a dark matter asymmetry, may be produced during a first order phase transition in a generative sector. We study the possibility of a gravitational wave signal in a model realising such a scenario. We identify areas of parameter space with strong phase transitions which can be probed by future, space based, gravitational wave detectors. Other signals of this scenario include collider signatures of a Z"', DM self interactions, a contribution to ΔN_e_f_f and nuclear recoils at direct detection experiments.

Mars base buildup scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blacic, J.D.

1985-01-01

Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

1998-01-01

This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Lourenço Junior

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

1994-01-01

Scenario developments is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review, and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence is this aspect of the PA will be through the use of a systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

1994-07-01

Scenario development is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence in this aspect of the PA will be through the use of the systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

The regionalization of climate scenarios: towards impact studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cariolle, D.

1999-01-01

This article describes the different types of climate numerical models and their use to obtain scenarios for climate change due to the greenhouse gas increase. Results from global or meso-scale models are given. They illustrate the existing ways of representing climatic conditions at global and regional scales. Combined with statistical approaches based for example on the techniques of analogues, their use gives a coherent strategy going from global scale numerical simulations to the study of impacts at a local scale. In the future the increase of computer power should allow a better description of the small processes and a wider range of impact studies on natural ecosystems and various economic sectors. The results of these studies will be very useful to define a coherent policy in response to observed or predicted climate changes. (author)

Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-05-01

This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

2017-01-01

to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen......Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...

Climate change streamflow scenarios designed for critical period water resources planning studies

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlet, A. F.; Snover, A. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2003-04-01

Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the US, and the resulting streamflow scenarios will be made freely available on the internet for a large number of sites in the PNW to help defray the costs of including climate change information in other studies.

SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey; Donovan, Sally; Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Kammen, Daniel

2014-06-01

This study provides an updated analysis of long-term energy system scenarios for California consistent with the State meeting its 2050 climate goal, including detailed analysis and assessment of electricity system build-out, operation, and costs across the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Four key elements are found to be critical for the State to achieve its 2050 goal of 80 percent greenhouse (GHG) reductions from the 1990 level: aggressive energy efficiency; clean electricity; widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating, and industry heating; and large-scale production of low-carbon footprint biofuels to largely replace petroleum-based liquid fuels. The approach taken here is that technically achievable energy efficiency measures are assumed to be achieved by 2050 and aggregated with the other key elements mentioned above to estimate resultant emissions in 2050. The energy and non-energy sectors are each assumed to have the objective of meeting an 80 percent reduction from their respective 1990 GHG levels for the purposes of analysis. A different partitioning of energy and non-energy sector GHG greenhouse reductions is allowed if emission reductions in one sector are more economic or technically achievable than in the other. Similarly, within the energy or non-energy sectors, greater or less than 80 percent reduction from 1990 is allowed for sub-sectors within the energy or non-energy sectors as long as the overall target is achieved. Overall emissions for the key economy-wide scenarios are considered in this report. All scenarios are compliant or nearly compliant with the 2050 goal. This finding suggests that multiple technical pathways exist to achieve the target with aggressive policy support and continued technology development of largely existing technologies.

Binary population synthesis study of the supersoft X-ray phase of single degenerate type Ia supernova progenitors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meng Xiangcun; Yang Wuming

2011-01-01

In the single degenerate (SD) scenario for type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), a mass-accreting white dwarf is expected to experience a supersoft X-ray source (SSS) phase. However, some recent observations showed that the expected number of mass-accreting WDs is much lower than that predicted from theory, regardless of whether they are in spiral or elliptical galaxies. In this paper, we performed a binary population synthesis study on the relative duration of the SSS phase to their whole mass-increasing phase of WDs leading to SNe Ia. We found that for about 40% of the progenitor systems, the relative duration is shorter than 2% and the evolution of the mean relative duration shows that it is always smaller than 5%, both for young and old SNe Ia. In addition, before the SNe Ia explosions, more than 55% of the progenitor systems were experiencing a dwarf novae phase and no more than 10% were staying in the SSS phase. These results are consistent with the recent observations and imply that both in early- and late-type galaxies, only a small fraction of mass-accreting WDs resulting in SNe Ia contributes to the supersoft X-ray flux. So, although our results are not directly related to the X-ray output of the SN Ia progenitor, the low supersoft X-ray luminosity observed in early type galaxies may not be able to exclude the validity of the SD model. On the contrary, it is evidence to support the SD scenario.

Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

Science.gov (United States)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

2014-05-01

The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied

The 'Europe, Territories' project of energy transition(s) in Europe: comparative analysis of scenarios, of their territorial application, and of their social-economic impacts. Phase 1. Analysis of national scenarios in Germany, Austria, Denmark and Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chatelin, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Besnard, Manon; Letz, Thomas; Rialhe, Anne

2016-01-01

This report reports an identification and an analysis of different scenarios of energy transition elaborated in different European countries (Germany, Austria, Denmark, Switzerland), and is a required preliminary step for the 'Europe-Territories' project implemented by the NegaWatt association. The report justifies the selection of these countries and, for each country, the selection of a specific scenario as several scenarios were available for each country. It discusses available data, identifies missing data and reports the search for additional data. Then, it reports the comparison between noticed trajectories, European objectives and retained scenarios. More precisely, and for each of the four countries and for France, it analyses the share of renewable energies in final energy consumption, and the evolution of final energy consumption. For each national scenario, it presents various aspects which can be, depending on the country, framework and method, major focuses, implementation, results, economic benefits, scenario assessment, energy production and demand. It proposes a comparative analysis of the studied national scenarios in terms of objectives and methodology, of energy demand and of energy production. It finally analyses trajectories on the short and on the long term. Some more detailed presentations of national scenarios are given in appendix

Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies; Etude detaillee des scenarios de transmutation faisant appel aux technologies actuelles pour les reacteurs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2003-07-01

This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

2008-01-01

Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

A multinational randomised study comparing didactic lectures with case scenario in a severe sepsis medical simulation course.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chih-Huang; Kuan, Win-Sen; Mahadevan, Malcolm; Daniel-Underwood, Lynda; Chiu, Te-Fa; Nguyen, H Bryant

2012-07-01

Medical simulation has been used to teach critical illness in a variety of settings. This study examined the effect of didactic lectures compared with simulated case scenario in a medical simulation course on the early management of severe sepsis. A prospective multicentre randomised study was performed enrolling resident physicians in emergency medicine from four hospitals in Asia. Participants were randomly assigned to a course that included didactic lectures followed by a skills workshop and simulated case scenario (lecture-first) or to a course that included a skills workshop and simulated case scenario followed by didactic lectures (simulation-first). A pre-test was given to the participants at the beginning of the course, post-test 1 was given after the didactic lectures or simulated case scenario depending on the study group assignment, then a final post-test 2 was given at the end of the course. Performance on the simulated case scenario was evaluated with a performance task checklist. 98 participants were enrolled in the study. Post-test 2 scores were significantly higher than pre-test scores in all participants (80.8 ± 12.0% vs 65.4 ± 12.2%, pdidactic lectures followed by simulation experience.

Phasing out nuclear, a credible scenario; Sortir du nucleaire, un scenario credible

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chatelain, C.; Mulot, R.; Chauveau, L.; Hait, J.F.

2011-08-15

Based on data from different companies, institutions and associations involved in nuclear energy (either in its production or in its critic), this article comments the possible energy savings (50 to 64%) that may be reached in the different sectors, and more particularly in the building sector and in electrical equipment. It discusses the potential production from solar, wind and biogas energy. It notices that phasing out nuclear is possible by 2030-2050, but would entail an increase of electricity prices. The German approach is presented. An article comments the anger of Fukushima Japanese farmers and evokes the slow building up of a solidarity network between France and Japan. A last article comments the authorization given to a further exploitation of the Fessenheim nuclear power plant (ten more years)

The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

1998-04-01

The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

Damage scenarios and an onboard support system for damaged ships

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Choi Jin

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Although a safety assessment of damaged ships, which considers environmental conditions such as waves and wind, is important in both the design and operation phases of ships, in Korea, rules or guidelines to conduct such assessments are not yet developed. However, NATO and European maritime societies have developed guidelines for a safety assessment. Therefore, it is required to develop rules or guidelines for safety assessments such as the Naval Ship Code (NSC of NATO. Before the safety assessment of a damaged ship can be performed, the available damage scenarios must be developed and the safety assessment criteria must be established. In this paper, the parameters related to damage by accidents are identified and categorized when developing damage scenarios. The need for damage safety assessment criteria is discussed, and an example is presented. In addition, a concept and specifications for the DB-based supporting system, which is used in the operation phases, are proposed.

Study of hazardous scenario in service stations. Final report; Etude de scenarios dangereux en stations-service. Rapport final

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-10-01

The industrial environment group is working at the elaboration of prescriptions applicable to classed installations submitted to declaration (heading 1434: fill in and distribution of inflammable liquids). In this context the group asked the INERIS to realize a list of possible accidents scenario, to quantify the consequences in terms of safety distances, to identify the most pertinent scenario and to examine the particular cases which allow to reduce the safety distances especially the implementing of a fire break wall of two hours. (A.L.B.)

Dose estimation and evaluation of protector measures for a power plant's accidents scenario, using geographical information system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costa, E.M.; Biagio, R.M.S.; Alves, R.N.

1999-01-01

Since the initial phase of a project of a nuclear plant several environmental studies are carried out, and a considerable amount of relevant information is generated. Therefore, there is an increasing need of an integrated analysis of this information in order to better evaluate the potential impact associated to hypothetical accident scenarios of such plants. This paper presents a case-study, in which a hypothetical accident scenario is analysed taking into account the environmental and populational information of the Brazilian nuclear power plants region by using a geographical information system. Important areas for planning of protective measures are identified to provide a basis for further analysis. (author)

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

The design of scenario-based training from the resilience engineering perspective: a study with grid electricians.

Science.gov (United States)

Saurin, Tarcisio Abreu; Wachs, Priscila; Righi, Angela Weber; Henriqson, Eder

2014-07-01

Although scenario-based training (SBT) can be an effective means to help workers develop resilience skills, it has not yet been analyzed from the resilience engineering (RE) perspective. This study introduces a five-stage method for designing SBT from the RE view: (a) identification of resilience skills, work constraints and actions for re-designing the socio-technical system; (b) design of template scenarios, allowing the simulation of the work constraints and the use of resilience skills; (c) design of the simulation protocol, which includes briefing, simulation and debriefing; (d) implementation of both scenarios and simulation protocol; and (e) evaluation of the scenarios and simulation protocol. It is reported how the method was applied in an electricity distribution company, in order to train grid electricians. The study was framed as an application of design science research, and five research outputs are discussed: method, constructs, model of the relationships among constructs, instantiations of the method, and theory building. Concerning the last output, the operationalization of the RE perspective on three elements of SBT is presented: identification of training objectives; scenario design; and debriefing. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Study of Universal Thermodynamics in Brane World Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitra, Saugata; Saha, Subhajit; Chakraborty, Subenoy

2015-01-01

A study of Universal thermodynamics is done in the framework of RSII brane model and DGP brane scenario. The Universe is chosen as FRW model bounded by apparent or event horizon. Assuming extended Hawking temperature on the horizon, the unified first law is examined for perfect fluid (with constant equation of state) and Modified Chaplygin Gas model. As a result there is a modification of Bekenstein entropy on the horizons. Further the validity of the generalized second law of thermodynamics and thermodynamical equilibrium are also investigated

Swedish long-term low carbon scenario - Exploratory study on opportunities and barriers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gode, Jenny; Saernholm, Erik; Zetterberg, Lars; Arnell, Jenny; Zetterberg, Therese

2010-12-15

In 2009, the Swedish government proposed a vision of reaching zero net emissions of greenhouse gases in the year 2050. However, there are few details on concrete actions after 2020. In the light of the long investment cycles associated with energy, housing, transport infrastructure and heavy industry, we believe that the society now needs to start identifying possible pathways for reaching this vision. The pathways also need to be investigated in terms of their feasibility and consequences. The aim of our study has been to develop and elaborate on one potential future energy scenario where Sweden minimises the use of fossil fuels in 2050 and to identify opportunities and barriers. The scenario we present is one of several possible scenarios and is obviously not a forecast. Our purpose is not to show a likely development, but rather to illustrate, by example, a society that is largely independent of fossil fuels and what would be required to get there. In a next step, more detailed scenarios as well as accurate impact assessments are needed. For example, the impact of high bioenergy utilisation needs to be carefully examined. The results also show several cross-sectoral measures and/or effects that need further study. There is also a need for thorough cost analyses as well as analyses of what is required to implement these measures in practice. We have analysed potential fossil fuel reductions in the sectors industry, residential/service, transports and energy conversion. For these sectors, systematic investigations have been made on measures for replacing fossil fuels, improving energy efficiency and applying new technologies and industrial processes. Our scenario is to a great extent based on existing technologies. In addition to sector specific measures, we have applied cross-sectoral measures such as using industrial surplus heat in the residential sector or forest residues for producing heat and power. Furthermore, we have assumed a system change in

Revising scenario map for plant management via interaction of stakeholders' intentions and constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohsawa, Yukio; Taya, Sayuri

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to put knowledge of plant safety together and make a map that will help to understand a system of plant and notice new links among components. This map, called the scenario map, can be used for aiding the chance discoveries - decision of various stakeholders of the system based on their awareness of latent dynamics underlying observed events. The trustworthiness of their analysis will be also reinforced by linking relevant data to the nodes and lines in the graph. In order to have stakeholders be aware of information missed in available data, we invented a method of workshop and moved forward with a rough map of plant safety. The first phase attempts to externalize differences in the bodies of knowledge of each participant. In the second, introducing Tsugo Roulette (TR) – the core component of this paper -, latent dynamics where physical and social causalities emerge is externalized. Then participants revise the scenario map based on their thoughts by the second phase, to finally evaluate the utility of nodes and lines in the graph. In accordance with each phase, participants in the workshop could exchange their tsugoes - views of intentions and constraints - and realize new links or nodes to be evaluated highly by experts in the corresponding domain. (author)

Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

2017-01-01

existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

Intervehicle Communication Research – Communication Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Šarūnas Stanaitis

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Recently intervehicle communications are attracting much attention from industry and academia. Upcoming standard for intervehicle communication IEEE 802.11p, known as Wireless Access in Vehicular Environments (WAVE, is still in its draft stage, but already coming into final standardization phase. Problematic, regarding mobile WAVE nodes, are described in several articles, simulations prepared and experiments done. But most of these works do not consider possible maximal communication load. This paper presents intervehicle communication scenario in respect to radio communications, mobility and other aspects of vehicular environments.Article in English

FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

2008-01-01

In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

A Physical Model for Three-Phase Compaction in Silicic Magma Reservoirs

Science.gov (United States)

Huber, Christian; Parmigiani, Andrea

2018-04-01

We develop a model for phase separation in magma reservoirs containing a mixture of silicate melt, crystals, and fluids (exsolved volatiles). The interplay between the three phases controls the dynamics of phase separation and consequently the chemical and physical evolution of magma reservoirs. The model we propose is based on the two-phase damage theory approach of Bercovici et al. (2001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JB900430) and Bercovici and Ricard (2003, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246X.2003.01854.x) because it offers the leverage of considering interface (in the macroscopic limit) between phases that can deform depending on the mechanical work and phase changes taking place locally in the magma. Damage models also offer the advantage that pressure is defined uniquely to each phase and does not need to be equal among phases, which will enable us to consider, in future studies, the large capillary pressure at which fluids are mobilized in mature, crystal-rich, magma bodies. In this first analysis of three-phase compaction, we solve the three-phase compaction equations numerically for a simple 1-D problem where we focus on the effect of fluids on the efficiency of melt-crystal separation considering the competition between viscous and buoyancy stresses only. We contrast three sets of simulations to explore the behavior of three-phase compaction, a melt-crystal reference compaction scenario (two-phase compaction), a three-phase scenario without phase changes, and finally a three-phase scenario with a parameterized second boiling (crystallization-induced exsolution). The simulations show a dramatic difference between two-phase (melt crystals) and three-phase (melt-crystals-exsolved volatiles) compaction-driven phase separation. We find that the presence of a lighter, significantly less viscous fluid hinders melt-crystal separation.

The world in scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

1992-01-01

As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

Scenario development, qualitative causal analysis and system dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael H. Ruge

2009-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to demonstrate that technology assessments can be supported by methods such as scenario modeling and qualitative causal analysis. At Siemens, these techniques are used to develop preliminary purely qualitative models. These or parts of these comprehensive models may be extended to system dynamics models. While it is currently not possible to automatically generate a system dynamics models (or vice versa, obtain a qualitative simulation model from a system dynamics model, the two thechniques scenario development and qualitative causal analysis provide valuable indications on how to proceed towards a system dynamics model. For the qualitative analysis phase, the Siemens – proprietary prototype Computer – Aided Technology Assessment Software (CATS supportes complete cycle and submodel analysis. Keywords: Health care, telecommucations, qualitative model, sensitivity analysis, system dynamics.

Zambia country study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1999-09-01

The Zambia Country Study, which was part of the Danida-funded project Climate Change Mitigation in Southern Africa: Phase 2, aimed at methodological development, national mitigation analysis and institutional capacity building in Zambia. The study comprised the following five elements: Comprehensive evaluation of national social and economic development framework for climate change; Baseline scenario(s) projection(s); Mitigation scenario(s) projection(s); Macro-economic assessment; Implementation Issues. (au) 17 refs.

Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2006-01-01

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2) are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.

Nuclear spent fuel management scenarios. Status and assessment report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dufek, J.; Arzhanov, V.; Gudowski, W.

2006-06-01

The strategy for management of spent nuclear fuel from the Swedish nuclear power programme is interim storage for cooling and decay for about 30 years followed by direct disposal of the fuel in a geologic repository. In various contexts it is of interest to compare this strategy with other strategies that might be available in the future as a result of ongoing research and development. In particular partitioning and transmutation is one such strategy that is subject to considerable R and D-efforts within the European Union and in other countries with large nuclear programmes. To facilitate such comparisons for the Swedish situation, with a planned phase out of the nuclear power programme, SKB has asked the team at Royal Inst. of Technology to describe and explore some scenarios that might be applied to the Swedish programme. The results of this study are presented in this report. The following scenarios were studied by the help of a specially developed computer programme: Phase out by 2025 with direct disposal. Burning plutonium and minor actinides as MOX in BWR. Burning plutonium and minor actinides as MOX in PWR. Burning plutonium and minor actinides in ADS. Combined LWR-MOX plus ADS. For the different scenarios nuclide inventories, waste amounts, costs, additional electricity production etc have been assessed. As a general conclusion it was found that BWR is more efficient for burning plutonium in MOX fuel than PWR. The difference is approximately 10%. Furthermore the BWR produces about 10% less americium inventory. An ADS reactor park can theoretically in an ideal case burn (transmute) 99% of the transuranium isotopes. The duration of such a scenario heavily depends on the interim time needed for cooling the spent fuel before reprocessing. Assuming 10 years for cooling of nuclear fuel from ADS, the duration will be at least 200 years under optimistic technical assumptions. The development and use of advanced pyro-processing with an interim cooling time of only

Nuclear spent fuel management scenarios. Status and assessment report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dufek, J.; Arzhanov, V.; Gudowski, W. [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Nuclear and Reactor Physics

2006-06-15

The strategy for management of spent nuclear fuel from the Swedish nuclear power programme is interim storage for cooling and decay for about 30 years followed by direct disposal of the fuel in a geologic repository. In various contexts it is of interest to compare this strategy with other strategies that might be available in the future as a result of ongoing research and development. In particular partitioning and transmutation is one such strategy that is subject to considerable R and D-efforts within the European Union and in other countries with large nuclear programmes. To facilitate such comparisons for the Swedish situation, with a planned phase out of the nuclear power programme, SKB has asked the team at Royal Inst. of Technology to describe and explore some scenarios that might be applied to the Swedish programme. The results of this study are presented in this report. The following scenarios were studied by the help of a specially developed computer programme: Phase out by 2025 with direct disposal. Burning plutonium and minor actinides as MOX in BWR. Burning plutonium and minor actinides as MOX in PWR. Burning plutonium and minor actinides in ADS. Combined LWR-MOX plus ADS. For the different scenarios nuclide inventories, waste amounts, costs, additional electricity production etc have been assessed. As a general conclusion it was found that BWR is more efficient for burning plutonium in MOX fuel than PWR. The difference is approximately 10%. Furthermore the BWR produces about 10% less americium inventory. An ADS reactor park can theoretically in an ideal case burn (transmute) 99% of the transuranium isotopes. The duration of such a scenario heavily depends on the interim time needed for cooling the spent fuel before reprocessing. Assuming 10 years for cooling of nuclear fuel from ADS, the duration will be at least 200 years under optimistic technical assumptions. The development and use of advanced pyro-processing with an interim cooling time of only

Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

2011-12-01

A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

2013-09-01

This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

Probabilistic approach relative to fire scenarios study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chabot, Jean-Luc

1998-01-01

The main objective of this thesis is to develop a calculation method of the occurring probability of the fire scenarios (detection, setting of the intervention, extinction) taking into account the size and the impact of the fire on the surroundings. This new method is called 'hybrid simulation'. It includes in a unique modelling the processing of continuous and discrete phenomenon. Moreover, to correctly represent fire scenarios, it is necessary not to take only into account the 'continuous' growing of the fire itself but of also 'discrete' events like detection, fire fighting and extinction, human behaviour and related faults. For that purpose we couple a code modelling the physical aspects of the fire to Petri nets which is able to model these 'discrete' events, this coupling consists of driving the 'continuous' model by the occurring of the 'discrete' events. This new technique which can be used to cover 'discrete' and 'continuous' events in a single calculation represents a solution to dynamic reliability calculation problems, for which there is a continuously increasing demand for analysing reliability, availability of production and maintainability of complex industrial systems. (author) [fr

SCENARIO-BASED eLEARNING AND STEM EDUCATION: A QUALITATIVE STUDY EXPLORING THE PERSPECTIVES OF EDUCATORS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David E. Proudfoot

2017-06-01

Full Text Available There are a variety of extra curricular activities and programs that aim to promote Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM education, but there are limited examples of extending STEM curriculum by employing scenario-based eLearning opportunities in a mobile lab learning environment. Following students participation in a first of its kind STEM Mobile Lab program that uses a scenario-based eLearning approach for instruction, twelve educators from four Title I elementary schools were asked about their perceptions of the influence of the Mobile Lab program on the STEM education of their students. The semi-structured interview protocol contained questions intended to explore participants’ perceptions regarding the influence of a scenario-based eLearning Mobile STEM Lab program on the STEM interest and achievement of students. The study found that a scenario-based eLearning Mobile STEM Lab can influence STEM interest and achievement of elementary students. This promising finding leads to a recommendation for educators to use this approach and similar programs to make students more interested in science and improve their grades. Efforts by educators to design and implement scenario-based eLearning opportunities lead to increased learner engagement.

Two-stage robust UC including a novel scenario-based uncertainty model for wind power applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Álvarez-Miranda, Eduardo; Campos-Valdés, Camilo; Rahmann, Claudia

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Methodological framework for obtaining Robust Unit Commitment (UC) policies. • Wind-power forecast using a revisited bootstrap predictive inference approach. • Novel scenario-based model for wind-power uncertainty. • Efficient modeling framework for obtaining nearly optimal UC policies in reasonable time. • Effective incorporation of wind-power uncertainty in the UC modeling. - Abstract: The complex processes involved in the determination of the availability of power from renewable energy sources, such as wind power, impose great challenges in the forecasting processes carried out by transmission system operators (TSOs). Nowadays, many of these TSOs use operation planning tools that take into account the uncertainty of the wind-power. However, most of these methods typically require strict assumptions about the probabilistic behavior of the forecast error, and usually ignore the dynamic nature of the forecasting process. In this paper a methodological framework to obtain Robust Unit Commitment (UC) policies is presented; such methodology considers a novel scenario-based uncertainty model for wind power applications. The proposed method is composed by three main phases. The first two phases generate a sound wind-power forecast using a bootstrap predictive inference approach. The third phase corresponds to modeling and solving a one-day ahead Robust UC considering the output of the first phase. The performance of proposed approach is evaluated using as case study a new wind farm to be incorporated into the Northern Interconnected System (NIS) of Chile. A projection of wind-based power installation, as well as different characteristic of the uncertain data, are considered in this study

Geographically explicit urban land use change scenarios for Mega cities: a case study in Tokyo

Science.gov (United States)

Yamagata, Y.; Bagan, H.; Seya, H.; Nakamichi, K.

2010-12-01

In preparation for the IPCC 5th assessment report, the international modeling community is developing four Representative Concentration Paths employing the scenarios developed by four different Integrated Assessment Models. These RCPs will be employed as an input to climate models, such as Earth System Models. In these days, the importance of assessment of not only global but also local (city/zone level) impacts of global change has gradually been recognized, thereby downscaling climate models are one of the urgent problems to be solved. Needless to say, reliable downscaling requires spatially high resolution land use change scenarios. So far, there has been proposed a lot of methods for constructing land use change scenarios with considering economic behavior of human, such as agent-based model (e.g., Parker et al., 2001), and land use transport (LUT) model (e.g., Anas and Liu, 2007). The latter approach in particular has widely been applied to actual urban/transport policy; hence modeling the interaction between them is very important for creating reliable land use change scenarios. However, the LUT models are usually built based on the zones of cities/municipalities whose spatial resolutions are too low to derive sensible parameters of the climate models. Moreover, almost all of the works which attempt to build spatially high resolution LUT model employs very small regions as the study area. The objective of this research is deriving various input parameters to climate models such as population density, fractional green vegetation cover, and anthropogenic heat emission with spatially high resolution land use change scenarios constructed with LUT model. The study area of this research is Tokyo metropolitan area, which is the largest urban area in the world (United Nations., 2010). Firstly, this study employs very high ground resolution zones composed of micro districts around 1km2. Secondly, the research attempt to combine remote sensing techniques and LUT models

Interpreting energy scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Nativi, S.; Santoro, M.

2009-12-01

Currently, one of the major challenges for scientific community is the study of climate change effects on life on Earth. To achieve this, it is crucial to understand how climate change will impact on biodiversity and, in this context, several application scenarios require modeling the impact of climate change on distribution of individual species. In the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2), the Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group developed three significant user scenarios. A couple of them make use of a GEOSS-based framework to study the impact of climate change factors on regional species distribution. The presentation introduces and discusses this framework which provides an interoperability infrastructures to loosely couple standard services and components to discover and access climate and biodiversity data, and run forecast and processing models. The framework is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components publish climate, environmental and biodiversity datasets; e)Ecological Niche Model Server: this component is able to run one or more Ecological Niche Models (ENM) on selected biodiversity and climate datasets; f)Data Access

Study of 'inadvertent human intrusion or rare natural event scenarios' for sub-surface disposal of radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakatani, Takayoshi; Ishitoya, Kimihide; Funabashi, Hideyuki; Sugaya, Toshikatsu; Sone, Tomoyuki; Shimada, Hidemitsu; Nakai, Kunihiro

2010-03-01

Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) is making preparations for the sub-surface disposal of radioactive wastes, in an integrated fashion according to the properties of the waste material regardless of the generators or waste sources. In this study, 'Inadvertent Human Intrusion or Rare Natural Event Scenarios' of 'Three Types scenarios' was considered according to the standard of the Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ) on the sub-surface disposal system that was based on 'Basic Policy for Safety Regulation Concerning Land Disposal of Low-Level Radioactive Waste (Interim Report)' by Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan (NSC). Selection of the assessed scenarios, development of the assessment tool and preliminary exposure dose assessment for general public were conducted. Among the assessed scenarios, the exposure dose of 'well water drinking scenario' was the highest under the very conservative assessment condition. This scenario assumed that the groundwater in Excavation Disturbed Zone (EDZ) was directly used as drinking water without any dilution. Although this was very conservative condition and the result exceeded 10 mSv/y, it stayed under the upper limit of standard dose value for 'Inadvertent Human Intrusion or Rare Natural Event Scenarios' (10 - 100 mSv/y). (author)

Energy utilities and environment-related energy services in the year 2008. Scenario study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-05-01

Insight is given into of the developments in the sector energy distribution companies and the consequences for the demand for energy services. Next, an overview is given of which energy services should be developed to meet the changed needs of the market. Three scenarios have been set up and are discussed in this brochure: (1) a Steady State scenario (unchanged policy of energy distribution companies); (2) Alliance scenario (strategic cooperation between energy distribution companies and retailers and installation businesses); and (3) Autonomous Development scenario (energy distribution companies develop and offer new services)

Environmental sensitivity studies for Gen-IV roadmap fast reactor scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Chang Joon

2004-03-01

The environmental effect of the self-sufficient fast reactor scenario, which is considered as one of the full fissile plutonium and transuranic recycle scenario in Gen-IV roadmap, has been analyzed by using the dynamic analysis method. Through the parametric calculations for the fast reactor deployment time and capacity, the environmental effects of the fuel cycle for important parameters such as the amount of spent fuel and the combined amounts of plutonium and minor actinides were estimated and compared to those of the once-through LWR fuel cycle. The results of the sensitivity calculations showed that an early deployment of the fast reactor with a high capacity can reduce the accumulation of spent fuel by up to 37%. Furthermore, the recycling of plutonium and minor actinides can reduce the key repository parameter (long term decay heat). Therefore the favorable environmental effects can be expected with the implementation of the symbiotic fast reactor scenario

CP Violation in Heavy MSSM Higgs Scenarios

CERN Document Server

Carena, M; Lee, J S; Pilaftsis, A; Wagner, C E M

2016-01-01

We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales M_S above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass M_H+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with a charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG...

Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

2013-04-01

The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc

Feasibility study on the potential of development of renewable energies for the ZAC de l'Horloge in Romainville. Study of opportunities in renewable energies and definition of energy supply scenarios. Analysis and comparison of energy supply scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-12-01

A first report proposes an overview of available renewable energy sources (geothermal, solar, and wind energy, green electricity, methanization, wood energy, waste water valorisation, connection to an existing heat network). For each of them, it presents a resource assessment, a discussion of constraints, or, should the occasion occur an overview of local providers (for wood), or an assessment of different options (small and large wind energy installations). It also presents demands made by existing sites on the studied area and at its neighbourhood. Energy supply scenarios are briefly defined. The second report proposes an analysis and a comparison of these scenarios. After a presentation of hypotheses and methodology, scenarios are presented in terms of energy needs, energy production and its relationship with the performance of positive energy buildings, adequacy with resource. Beside a reference scenario, these scenarios are named Dogger, Biomass, Wood, Clustered sectors. Comparison is performed in terms of energetic, economic and environmental assessments

User needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger Knutti, Jacqueline

2017-04-01

sector for the combination of wind speed and global radiation. Furthermore, the survey reveals that the incorporation of provided uncertainty depends on the user type: while intensive users often can handle uncertainties, there are a lot of other users that either cannot or purposely do not make use of the uncertainty. For the development of new Swiss climate scenarios the survey results on end-user needs are considered as a starting point for further interactions with users. This is accomplished with the establishment of a sounding board accompagning the project throught its time span. Furthermore, explicit stakeholder-dialogues with key users of different sectors will be carried during the project phase.

Scenarios for low carbon and low water electric power plant ...

Science.gov (United States)

In the water-energy nexus, water use for the electric power sector is critical. Currently, the operational phase of electric power production dominates the electric sector's life cycle withdrawal and consumption of fresh water resources. Water use associated with the fuel cycle and power plant equipment manufacturing phase is substantially lower on a life cycle basis. An outstanding question is: how do regional shifts to lower carbon electric power mixes affect the relative contribution of the upstream life cycle water use? To test this, we examine a range of scenarios comparing a baseline with scenarios of carbon reduction and water use constraints using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy systems model with ORD's 2014 U.S. 9-region database (EPAUS9r). The results suggest that moving toward a low carbon and low water electric power mix may increase the non-operational water use. In particular, power plant manufacturing water use for concentrating solar power, and fuel cycle water use for biomass feedstock, could see sharp increases under scenarios of high deployment of these low carbon options. Our analysis addresses the following questions. First, how does moving to a lower carbon electricity generation mix affect the overall regional electric power water use from a life cycle perspective? Second, how does constraining the operational water use for power plants affect the mix, if at all? Third, how does the life cycle water use differ among regions under

Integrative Scenario Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joerg A. Priess

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

From Modelling to Execution of Enterprise Integration Scenarios: The GENIUS Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Scheibler, Thorsten; Leymann, Frank

One of the predominant problems IT companies are facing today is Enterprise Application Integration (EAI). Most of the infrastructures built to tackle integration issues are proprietary because no standards exist for how to model, develop, and actually execute integration scenarios. EAI patterns gain importance for non-technical business users to ease and harmonize the development of EAI scenarios. These patterns describe recurring EAI challenges and propose possible solutions in an abstract way. Therefore, one can use those patterns to describe enterprise architectures in a technology neutral manner. However, patterns are documentation only used by developers and systems architects to decide how to implement an integration scenario manually. Thus, patterns are not theoretical thought to stand for artefacts that will immediately be executed. This paper presents a tool supporting a method how EAI patterns can be used to generate executable artefacts for various target platforms automatically using a model-driven development approach, hence turning patterns into something executable. Therefore, we introduce a continuous tool chain beginning at the design phase and ending in executing an integration solution in a completely automatically manner. For evaluation purposes we introduce a scenario demonstrating how the tool is utilized for modelling and actually executing an integration scenario.

Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

2016-02-11

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

Propositions of public policy measures for a low-carbon scenario. Study synthesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vincent, Isabelle; Bodiguel, Aude; Callonnec, Gael; Ransquin, Johan; Marchal, David; Cheverry, Marc; Guermont-Bernardi, Catherine; Nauleau, Marie-Laure; Parrouffe, Jean-Michel; Mousset, Jerome; Bardinal, Marc; Marion, Roland; Gourdon, Thomas; Streiff, Frederic; Barbusse, Stephane; Dore, Nicolas; Sanna, Daniela; Eglin, Thomas; Cairey-Remonnay, Michel; Bastide, Guillaume; Paulou, Julien; Leblanc, Clement; Suaud, Charlotte; Cabanne, Isabelle; Doudnikoff, Marjorie; Vergez, Antonin; Domergue, Silvano; Fragnol, Ludovic; Brender, Pierre; Perrissin Fabert, Baptiste; Bringault, Anne; Jedliczka, Marc; Duffes, Thomas; Bureau, Dominique; Perrissin Fabert, Baptiste; Dumas, Gerald; Lepee, Jerome; Bailly, Boris; Sudries, Laura; Mairet, Nicolas; Remontet, Lucas; Correia, Leslie; Briand-Boucher, Vincent

2017-08-01

As three scenarios had been elaborated in view of the Paris COP21, this report more particularly addresses the third of them, i.e. the so-called AMS2 scenario which contains a set of additional measures, including those defined in the French law on energy transition for a green growth (LTECV). A first part analyses this scenario: objectives related to the residential sector, to the tertiary sector, to the transport sector, to the industrial sector, to the agriculture sector, and to the electric power sector, carbon component of consumption domestic taxes. The report then outlines that this adjusted version of the AMS2 scenario does not fit France's low carbon trajectory any longer, and thus needs additional measures. It discusses the assessment of greenhouse gas emission benefits, and identifies and discusses clusters of measures for the different sectors (residential, tertiary, transport, industrial, agriculture, energy)

The 2017-2050 NegaWatt Scenario. Executive Summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2017-01-01

The NegaWatt Association has released a new version of its 2050 energy outlook. Using improved and updated data, as well as refined tools and calculations, it confirms that France can reach 100% renewable energy by 2050 while phasing-out nuclear. The NegaWatt approach leads to achieving the energy transition, meeting the objectives of the Paris Climate Deal, and generating net benefits for the French economy, as confirmed by a financial and job assessment. First issued in 2003, and updated several times since then, our 2050 energy scenario for France is now a well acknowledged and recognised thorough piece of work to discuss the country's energy future, and options to engage in a sustainable energy transition. The scenario is supported by a large number of civil society organisations, and has been considered in official assessment studies and national energy debates. Covering all sectors (buildings, transport, industry, agriculture...) through thousands of parameters and sophisticated details, it shows how France could shift to a climate-friendly, nuclear-free, and sustainable energy future through an approach based on: energy sufficiency (favouring low energy services and lifestyles); energy efficiency (ensuring that energy is used in the most productive way); renewables (developing first the greenest forms of energy for our supply)

A world of differences, the normative EOS-scenarios. Final report of a study to found the normative scenarios of the project Energy research scenarios of the Energy Study Centre (ECN, Petten, Netherlands). Een wereld van verschil, de normatieve EOS-scenario's. Eindrapport van een studie ter onderbouwing van de normatieve scenario's van het project Energie Onderzoek Scenario's van het Energie Studie Centrum (ECN, Petten)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dinkelman, G.

1987-11-01

Three competing political and economical 'concepts of control' which underlie three normative energy-scenarios are described. The aim of the literature-research carried out for this report was to make the original scenarios more recognizable, and to find out which groups could be expected to support them. The concepts of control bear the names 'Dynamic and growth', 'Dirigation and blockbuilding' and 'Shared development'. They can be seen, so is argued, as competing perspectives on a so-called 'post-Fordist' world. The three concepts of control differ on what they see as common interests and the way they should be looked after. Topics in the description are: the desired rate of European political and economical integration, the borders of Europe, Europe's position in the world, the acceptance of new technologies, the goals they should be used for, and perceived relationships between energy, environment and economy. The scenarios show what happens if these three concepts of control become hegemonic without being forced to compromises. For all three scenarios a short sketch is given of the corresponding dominating energy- and environmental policy and of future relationships within OECD and between OECD on the one hand and NIC's/LDC's on the other. The conclusion of the report is that the ideological differences between the neoliberalism of 'Dynamic and growth' and the green, direct-democracy-politics of 'Shared development' are not as big as they were in the seventies. Especially on the new policy-areas like technology, energy and environment they get closer. But this does not mean that the concept of 'Dirigation and blockbuilding' can be put completely aside. Its goal of economic equality and its emphasis on government dirigation may become more attractive again if it comes out that market regulation leads to a dual society and that it was state-intervention (by

Study of Mobility Enhancements for RPL in Convergecast Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinpeng Wang

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In recent years, mobility support has become an important requirement in various wireless sensor network (WSN applications. However, due to the strict resource constraints of power, memory, and processing resources in WSNs, routing protocols are mainly designed without considering mobility. Low-Power and Lossy Networks (LLNs are a special type of WSNs that tolerate data loss. The Routing Protocol for Low-Power and Lossy Networks (RPL is a routing protocol for LLNs that adapts IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6 and runs on top of the IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 802.15.4 standard. RPL supports multipoint-to-point traffic and point-to-multipoint traffic. In this paper we propose a mobility enhancement mechanism in order to improve data collection applications in highly mobile scenarios. The enhancement is based on signal strength monitoring and depth updating in order to improve the routing protocol performance in mobile scenarios. This enhancement helps routing protocols to cope better with topology changes and makes proactive decisions on updating next-hop neighbours. We integrated this mechanism into the RPL and compared it with other existing RPL mobility support enhancements. Results obtained through simulation using Cooja show that our work outperforms other existing RPL mobility supports on different performance metrics. Results also prove the efficiency of our proposal in highly mobile scenarios.

The Application of Neutron Transport Green's Functions to Threat Scenario Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Thoreson, Gregory G.; Schneider, Erich A.; Armstrong, Hirotatsu; van der Hoeven, Christopher A.

2015-02-01

Radiation detectors provide deterrence and defense against nuclear smuggling attempts by scanning vehicles, ships, and pedestrians for radioactive material. Understanding detector performance is crucial to developing novel technologies, architectures, and alarm algorithms. Detection can be modeled through radiation transport simulations; however, modeling a spanning set of threat scenarios over the full transport phase-space is computationally challenging. Previous research has demonstrated Green's functions can simulate photon detector signals by decomposing the scenario space into independently simulated submodels. This paper presents decomposition methods for neutron and time-dependent transport. As a result, neutron detector signals produced from full forward transport simulations can be efficiently reconstructed by sequential application of submodel response functions.

Research study for extremely unlikely scenario of high level waste disposal: Part 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohkubo, Hiroo

1999-02-01

In this research, first, event and process relevant to the key words (or scenario initiator) such as volcanism have been identified and, especially a middle-scale eruption scenario including pyroclastic flows has been analyzed as the catastrophic scenario, which inspires ordinary people to have tremendous concern. Secondly, based upon the characteristic events and processes of each scenario considered in the above and through the research of existing model of such risk, quantitative concept (release amount magnitude, release mode, release form, frequency of release, probability etc.) and impact on repository system, facility and environment have been analyzed, defended and defined. Model which can assess and analyze such impact has been built. Using these models, risks directly or indirectly caused by HLW repository have been calculated. Finally, the process for assessing the consequence of volcanism scenario and its risk calculated by the model developed in the above have been visualized, and presented by comparing with other risks. (author)

A comparison of different algorithms for phasing haplotypes using Holstein cattle genotypes and pedigree data.

Science.gov (United States)

Miar, Younes; Sargolzaei, Mehdi; Schenkel, Flavio S

2017-04-01

Phasing genotypes to haplotypes is becoming increasingly important due to its applications in the study of diseases, population and evolutionary genetics, imputation, and so on. Several studies have focused on the development of computational methods that infer haplotype phase from population genotype data. The aim of this study was to compare phasing algorithms implemented in Beagle, Findhap, FImpute, Impute2, and ShapeIt2 software using 50k and 777k (HD) genotyping data. Six scenarios were considered: no-parents, sire-progeny pairs, sire-dam-progeny trios, each with and without pedigree information in Holstein cattle. Algorithms were compared with respect to their phasing accuracy and computational efficiency. In the studied population, Beagle and FImpute were more accurate than other phasing algorithms. Across scenarios, phasing accuracies for Beagle and FImpute were 99.49-99.90% and 99.44-99.99% for 50k, respectively, and 99.90-99.99% and 99.87-99.99% for HD, respectively. Generally, FImpute resulted in higher accuracy when genotypic information of at least one parent was available. In the absence of parental genotypes and pedigree information, Beagle and Impute2 (with double the default number of states) were slightly more accurate than FImpute. Findhap gave high phasing accuracy when parents' genotypes and pedigree information were available. In terms of computing time, Findhap was the fastest algorithm followed by FImpute. FImpute was 30 to 131, 87 to 786, and 353 to 1,400 times faster across scenarios than Beagle, ShapeIt2, and Impute2, respectively. In summary, FImpute and Beagle were the most accurate phasing algorithms. Moreover, the low computational requirement of FImpute makes it an attractive algorithm for phasing genotypes of large livestock populations. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New reactors concepts and scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gandini, A.

2001-01-01

In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Methodological review of UK and international low carbon scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hughes, Nick; Strachan, Neil

2010-01-01

Scenarios have a long history in business, politics and military planning, as a tool for strategic planning to inform protective, proactive or consensus-based decision making in the face of uncertain futures. Recent years have seen a growth in scenarios for assessing the implications of low carbon futures, but relatively little work has linked these energy scenarios to the broader literature on scenario development. This paper undertakes a methodological review of a selection of UK and international low carbon scenario studies, using a typology of 'trend based', 'technical feasibility' and 'modelling' studies. Dominant methodologies in such studies have been the 2x2 axis and the 'back-casting' approach. Strengths of the studies reviewed include technological detail, and identification of key economic and social constraints. Weaknesses include the over-reliance on constructs such as exogenous emissions constraints, and high level trends, which diminish the ability to understand how the various future scenarios could be brought about or avoided. This is compounded by the lack of depiction of specific system actors; the tendency to abstract policy from the scenarios; and the resulting failure to consider policy, technology and behaviour in an iterative, 'co-evolving' fashion.

Antennas for Frequency Reconfigurable Phased Arrays

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haider, S.N.

2015-01-01

Sensors such as phased array radars play a crucial role in public safety. They are unavoidable for surveillance, threat identification and post-disaster management. However, different scenarios impose immensely diverse requirements for these systems. Phased array systems occupy a large space. In

Scenario for concurrent conceptual assembly line design: A case study

Science.gov (United States)

Mas, F.; Ríos, J.; Menéndez, J. L.

2012-04-01

The decision to design and build a new aircraft is preceded by years of research and study. Different disciplines work together throughout the lifecycle to ensure not only a complete functional definition of the product, but also a complete industrialization, a marketing plan, a maintenance plan, etc. This case study focuses on the conceptual design phase. During this phase, the design solutions that will meet the functional and industrial requirements are defined, i.e.: the basic requirements of industrialization. During this phase, several alternatives are studied, and the most attractive in terms of performance and cost requirements is selected. As a result of the study of these alternatives, it is possible to define an early conceptual design of the assembly line and its basic parameters. The plant needs, long cycle jigs & tools or industrial means and human resources with the necessary skills can be determined in advance.

Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

DEMO maintenance scenarios: scheme for time estimations and preliminary estimates for blankets arranged in multi-module-segments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagy, D.

2007-01-01

Previous conceptual studies made clear that the ITER blanket concept and segmentation is not suitable for the environment of a potential fusion power plant (DEMO). One promising concept to be used instead is the so-called Multi-Module-Segment (MMS) concept. Each MMS consists of a number of blankets arranged on a strong back plate thus forming ''banana'' shaped in-board (IB) and out-board (OB) segments. With respect to port size, weight, or other limiting aspects the IB and OB MMS are segmented in toroidal direction. The number of segments to be replaced would be below 100. For this segmentation concept a new maintenance scenario had to be worked out. The aim of this paper is to present a promising MMS maintenance scenario, a flexible scheme for time estimations under varying boundary conditions and preliminary time estimates. According to the proposed scenario two upper, vertical arranged maintenance ports have to be opened for blanket maintenance on opposite sides of the tokamak. Both ports are central to a 180 degree sector and the MMS are removed and inserted through both ports. In-vessel machines are operating to transport the elements in toroidal direction and also to insert and attach the MMS to the shield. Outside the vessel the elements have to be transported between the tokamak and the hot cell to be refurbished. Calculating the maintenance time for such a scenario is rather challenging due to the numerous parallel processes involved. For this reason a flexible, multi-level calculation scheme has been developed in which the operations are organized into three levels: At the lowest level the basic maintenance steps are determined. These are organized into maintenance sequences that take into account parallelisms in the system. Several maintenance sequences constitute the maintenance phases which correspond to a certain logistics scenario. By adding the required times of the maintenance phases the total maintenance time is obtained. The paper presents

Economic study of fuel scenarios for a reload; Estudio economico de escenarios de combustible para una recarga

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ortiz S, J. J.; Castillo M, J. A.; Montes T, J. L.; Perusquia del C, R., E-mail: juanjose.ortiz@inin.gob.mx [ININ, Carretera Mexico-Toluca s/n, 52750 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)

2014-10-15

In this work the results to plan different scenarios for designing a nuclear fuel reload are shown. Given a reload with specific energy requirements, the objective is to verify the feasibility of using either a greater number of fresh fuel with less uranium enrichment, or otherwise reduce the number of fresh fuel assemblies and therefore they have a higher average uranium enrichment. For the study a cycle balance 18-month basis with 112 fresh assemblies divided into two lots, with energy produced of 10,075 Mwd/Tu was used. For the designs under the mentioned scenarios, the heuristic techniques known as taboo search and neural networks were used. To verify the feasibility of obtained reloads an economic study of the reload costs was performed. The results showed that is possible to design reloads under the two scenarios, but was more complicated decrease the amount of fresh fuel assemblies. In both scenarios was possible to reduce manufacturing costs of fuel and according to purely static calculation, it would be possible to increase the energy produced. (Author)

JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, N. S.

2018-04-01

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

Study of scenarios of long term management of low-activity long-life wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

This document reports the study of scenarios for the management of different low-activity long-life radioactive wastes with reference to different French legal texts. After a presentation of the legal and technical context, the report presents different existing and projected storages (description and safety principles for the Cires and Aube centres and for the Cigeo project of deep geological storage centre). It addresses the various aspects of radiferous and graphite waste management on a long term: inventory, parcel, waste peculiarities, management scenarios, assessment of storage in SCR. It also addresses the case of other wastes such as bituminous coated wastes, those presenting a reinforced natural radioactivity or residues of uranium conversion processing. The last part presents the main orientations for the project

Towards Validating Game Scenarios for Teaching Conflict Resolution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Grappiolo, Corrado; Pedersen, Christoffer Holmgård

2013-01-01

Teaching conflict resolution skills via serious games has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper describes game scenarios that were developed to evoke variant levels of conflict intensity to children. To validate the scenarios, we implemented a prototype and created videos from...... play-throughs of the prototype. We then carried out a user study and ran statistical analyses to test if children would perceive the game scenarios as intended by scenario designers in terms of conflict....

Virtual screening applications: a study of ligand-based methods and different structure representations in four different scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Hristozov, Dimitar P; Oprea, Tudor I; Gasteiger, Johann

2007-01-01

Four different ligand-based virtual screening scenarios are studied: (1) prioritizing compounds for subsequent high-throughput screening (HTS); (2) selecting a predefined (small) number of potentially active compounds from a large chemical database; (3) assessing the probability that a given structure will exhibit a given activity; (4) selecting the most active structure(s) for a biological assay. Each of the four scenarios is exemplified by performing retrospective ligand-based virtual screening for eight different biological targets using two large databases--MDDR and WOMBAT. A comparison between the chemical spaces covered by these two databases is presented. The performance of two techniques for ligand--based virtual screening--similarity search with subsequent data fusion (SSDF) and novelty detection with Self-Organizing Maps (ndSOM) is investigated. Three different structure representations--2,048-dimensional Daylight fingerprints, topological autocorrelation weighted by atomic physicochemical properties (sigma electronegativity, polarizability, partial charge, and identity) and radial distribution functions weighted by the same atomic physicochemical properties--are compared. Both methods were found applicable in scenario one. The similarity search was found to perform slightly better in scenario two while the SOM novelty detection is preferred in scenario three. No method/descriptor combination achieved significant success in scenario four.

Study of treatment scenarios for fuel debris removed from Fukushima Daiichi NPS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Washiya, Tadahiro; Yano, Kimihiko; Kaji, Naoya; Yamada, Seiya; Kamiya, Masayoshi

2015-01-01

On March 11, 2011, a severe nuclear accident occurred at Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (hereinafter called as F1). After the accident, the Council for the Decommissioning was established, mainly by the government and TEPCO, and a road map for the F1 decommissioning was drawn up. In the road map, the fuel debris removal from the reactors is scheduled to launch around 2020. In this study, the characteristics and technological issues of each potential treatment scenario were extracted, and the scenarios were prioritized in advance of formal evaluations in the future. The preliminary evaluation results show that long term storage and direct disposal have more positive aspects in terms of economic efficiency and radioactive waste generation. On the other hand, stabilizing processing, aqueous processing, and pyrochemical processing have been estimated to have more disadvantages in such aspects. (author)

Chaotic behavior in Casimir oscillators: A case study for phase-change materials.

Science.gov (United States)

Tajik, Fatemeh; Sedighi, Mehdi; Khorrami, Mohammad; Masoudi, Amir Ali; Palasantzas, George

2017-10-01

Casimir forces between material surfaces at close proximity of less than 200 nm can lead to increased chaotic behavior of actuating devices depending on the strength of the Casimir interaction. We investigate these phenomena for phase-change materials in torsional oscillators, where the amorphous to crystalline phase transitions lead to transitions between high and low Casimir force and torque states, respectively, without material compositions. For a conservative system bifurcation curve and Poincare maps analysis show the absence of chaotic behavior but with the crystalline phase (high force-torque state) favoring more unstable behavior and stiction. However, for a nonconservative system chaotic behavior can take place introducing significant risk for stiction, which is again more pronounced for the crystalline phase. The latter illustrates the more general scenario that stronger Casimir forces and torques increase the possibility for chaotic behavior. The latter is making it impossible to predict whether stiction or stable actuation will occur on a long-term basis, and it is setting limitations in the design of micronano devices operating at short-range nanoscale separations.

Development and validation of health related quality of life questionnaire (Indian scenario) in diabetic foot ulcer patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Kateel, Ramya; Augustine, Alfred J; Ullal, Sheetal; Prabhu, Shivananda; Bhat, Rahul; Adhikari, Prabha

2017-12-01

To develop and validate Health Related Quality of Life Questionnaire in Diabetic Foot Ulcer Patients (HRQLQDFU) for Indian scenario. This study was conducted in two phases. First phase was Development of HRQLQDFU which included literature search and expert interview. Second phase was validation of HRQLQDFL which included face validation, content validation and construct validation. Face validation was done by ten diabetic foot ulcer patients, ten practicing nurses and ten care givers. They were asked to read and respond to questionnaire and report any difficulty in understanding the questions. Further they were asked to add any item to the questionnaire which according to them has a significant effect on quality of life. Content validation was done by six subject experts who judged the content relevance of questionnaire with score ranging from zero to four; zero being least relevant and four being most relevant. Content validity index was calculated for each question. Questions having content validity index≥0.8 were selected for the study. Reliability was tested by calculating Cronbach's alpha. In the development phase a questionnaire containing 37 questions with six domains was developed. None of patient had difficulty in understanding questions. After content validation a new questionnaire containing 20 questions was developed. Cronbach's alpha was 0.86 which shows good reliability. The new health related quality of life questionnaire on diabetic foot ulcer patients for an Indian scenario is validated and can be a reliably measure for quality of life in diabetic foot ulcer patients. Copyright © 2017 Diabetes India. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systems study of fuels from grains and grasses. Phase I. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benson, W.; Allen, A.; Athey, R.; McElroy, A.; Davis, M.; Bennett, M.

1978-02-24

The program reported on herein consists of a first phase analysis of the potential for significant and economically viable contributions to U.S. energy needs from grasses and grains by the photosynthetic production of biomass. The study does not include other cultivated crops such as sugar cane, sugar beets, cotton, tobacco, vegetables, fruits, etc. The scope of the study encompasses grain crop residues, whole plant biomass from grain crops and nongrain crops on cropland, and whole plant biomass from grasses on pasture, rangeland, and federal range. The basic approach to the study involves first an assessment of current total biomass generation from the various grasses and grains on cropland, pasture, range, and federal range, and aggregating the production by combinations of crop residues and whole plant biomass; second, evaluation of possibilities for introduction of new crops and expanding production to marginal or presently idle land; third, development of proposed reasonable scenarios for actually harvesting biomass from selected combinations of crop residues, forages and hays, and new crops from land now in production, plus additional marginal or underutilized land brought into production; and finally, assessment on national and regional or local scales of the production that might be affected by reasonable scenarios. This latter effort includes analysis of tentative possibilities for reallocating priorities and needs with regard to production of grain for export or for livestock production. The overall program includes a case study analysis of production economics for a representative farm of about 1,000 acres (405 ha) located in Iowa.

Cost-benefit study of different application scenarios in teleradiology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heckermann, D.; Wetekam, V.; Hundt, W.; Reiser, M.

1997-01-01

With the increasing number of users and technical improvements, there are several application scenarios of teleradiology. To perform a cost-benefit analysis, an approach is presented, which focuses on both monetary and qualitative aspects. Process-related, qualitative and quantitative evaluations are described. The prestudy compares the radiological workflow before and after the introduction of a teleradiology system. A scoring model is part of the qualitative evaluation. The quantitative study focuses on costs and savings. Amortisation and a net present value of savings versus costs can be derived using dynamic investment methods. Savings can be achieved after a short time under ideal conditions, but there is no guarantee for a reimbursement for all systems. (orig.) [de

ECRH and ECCD scenarios for W7-X

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laqua H.P.

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The main ECRH scenarios for the W7-X Stellarator are described. Both X2 (low and moderate densities and O2 scenarios (high density have been studied. Since O2 scenario cannot be realized without pre-heating, transition from X2 to O2 scenarios has been discussed. Due to a lack of Ohmic transformer, only ECCD is available for compensating the bootstrap current and for controlling the edge rotational transform value. The efficiency of ECCD for all main scenarios has been estimated. All simulations have been performed by a 1D transport code coupled self-consistently with ray-tracing code.

Evaluation of Landscape Impacts and Land Use Change: a Tuscan Case Study for CAP Reform Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iacopo Bernetti

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The study uses information from different sources and on different scales in an integrated set of models in order to analyze possible land use change scenarios arising in response to CAP reform. Five main steps were followed: (1 analysis of past land use changes, (2 multivariate analysis of future land use changes using a neural network time series forecast model (Multi-Layer Perceptron Method, (3 modelization of land use change demand (Markovian Chains Method, (4 allocation of the demand to define transition localization, (5 definition of policy scenarios. The final stage is the comparison of CAP scenarios using a multicriteria decision making approach, in order to supply valuable information to policy makers regarding the possible local effects of key direction changes in CAP.

Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

2009-01-01

Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

Constructing APT Attack Scenarios Based on Intrusion Kill Chain and Fuzzy Clustering

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ru Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The APT attack on the Internet is becoming more serious, and most of intrusion detection systems can only generate alarms to some steps of APT attack and cannot identify the pattern of the APT attack. To detect APT attack, many researchers established attack models and then correlated IDS logs with the attack models. However, the accuracy of detection deeply relied on the integrity of models. In this paper, we propose a new method to construct APT attack scenarios by mining IDS security logs. These APT attack scenarios can be further used for the APT detection. First, we classify all the attack events by purpose of phase of the intrusion kill chain. Then we add the attack event dimension to fuzzy clustering, correlate IDS alarm logs with fuzzy clustering, and generate the attack sequence set. Next, we delete the bug attack sequences to clean the set. Finally, we use the nonaftereffect property of probability transfer matrix to construct attack scenarios by mining the attack sequence set. Experiments show that the proposed method can construct the APT attack scenarios by mining IDS alarm logs, and the constructed scenarios match the actual situation so that they can be used for APT attack detection.

GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures

Science.gov (United States)

Nativi, Stefano; Santoro, Mattia

2010-05-01

In the last years, scientific community is producing great efforts in order to study the effects of climate change on life on Earth. In this general framework, a key role is played by the impact of climate change on biodiversity. To assess this, several use scenarios require the modeling of climatological change impact on the regional distribution of biodiversity species. Designing and developing interoperability infrastructures which enable scientists to search, discover, access and use multi-disciplinary resources (i.e. datasets, services, models, etc.) is currently one of the main research fields for the Earth and Space Science Informatics. This presentation introduces and discusses an interoperability infrastructure which implements the discovery, access, and chaining of loosely-coupled resources in the climatology and biodiversity domains. This allows to set up and run forecast and processing models. The presented framework was successfully developed and experimented in the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2) Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group. This interoperability infrastructure is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components

Development of regional climate scenarios in the Netherlands - involvement of users

Science.gov (United States)

Bessembinder, Janette; Overbeek, Bernadet

2013-04-01

Climate scenarios are consistent and plausible pictures of possible future climates. They are intended for use in studies exploring the impacts of climate change, and to formulate possible adaptation strategies. To ensure that the developed climate scenarios are relevant to the intended users, interaction with the users is needed. As part of the research programmes "Climate changes Spatial Planning" and "Knowledge for Climate" several projects on climate services, tailoring of climate information and communication were conducted. Some of the important lessons learned about user interaction are: *) To be able to deliver relevant climate information in the right format, proper knowledge is required on who will be using the climate information and data, how it will be used and why they use it; *) Users' requirements can be very diverse and requirements may change over time. Therefore, sustained (personal) contact with users is required; *) Organising meetings with climate researchers and users of climate information together, and working together in projects results in mutual understanding on the requirements of users and the limitations to deliver certain types of climate information, which facilitates the communication and results in more widely accepted products; *) Information and communication should be adapted to the type of users (e.g. impact researchers or policy makers) and to the type of problem (unstructured problems require much more contact with the users). In 2001 KNMI developed climate scenarios for the National Commission on Water management in the 21st century (WB21 scenarios). In 2006 these were replaced by a the KNMI'06 scenarios, intended for a broader group of users. The above lessons are now taken into account during the development of the next generation of climate scenarios for the Netherlands, expected at the end of 2013, after the publication of the IPCC WG1 report: *) users' requirements are taken into account explicitly in the whole process

RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

2016-01-01

studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

CONSTRAINING JET PRODUCTION SCENARIOS BY STUDIES OF NARROW-LINE RADIO GALAXIES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sikora, Marek [Nicolaus Copernicus Astronomical Center, Bartycka 18, 00-716 Warsaw (Poland); Stasinska, Grazyna [LUTH, Observatoire de Paris, CNRS, Universite Paris Diderot, Place Jules Janssen, F-92190 Meudon (France); Koziel-Wierzbowska, Dorota [Astronomical Observatory, Jagiellonian University, ul. Orla 171, 30-244 Krakow (Poland); Madejski, Greg M. [Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Asari, Natalia V., E-mail: sikora@camk.edu.pl [Institute of Astronomy, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0HA (United Kingdom)

2013-03-01

We study a large sample of narrow-line radio galaxies (NLRGs) with extended radio structures. Using 1.4 GHz radio luminosities L {sub 1.4}, narrow optical emission line luminosities L {sub [OIII]} and L{sub H{sub {alpha}}}, as well as black hole masses M {sub BH} derived from stellar velocity dispersions measured from the optical spectra obtained with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, we find that (1) NLRGs cover about four decades of the Eddington ratio, {lambda} {identical_to} L {sub bol}/L {sub Edd}{proportional_to}L {sub line}/M {sub BH}; (2) L {sub 1.4}/M {sub BH} strongly correlates with {lambda}; and (3) radio loudness, R{identical_to}L{sub 1.4}/L{sub line}, strongly anti-correlates with {lambda}. A very broad range of the Eddington ratio indicates that the parent population of NLRGs includes both radio-loud quasars (RLQs) and broad-line radio galaxies (BLRGs). The correlations they obey and their high jet production efficiencies favor a jet production model which involves the so-called magnetically choked accretion scenario. In this model, production of the jet is dominated by the Blandford-Znajek mechanism, and the magnetic fields in the vicinity of the central black hole are confined by the ram pressure of the accretion flow. Since large net magnetic flux accumulated in central regions of the accretion flow required by the model can take place only via geometrically thick accretion, we speculate that the massive, 'cold' accretion events associated with luminous emission-line active galactic nucleus can be accompanied by an efficient jet production only if preceded by a hot, very sub-Eddington accretion phase.

On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linde, A.; Mukhanov, V.; Vikman, A.

2010-01-01

In a recent paper, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in Khoury are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario

Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bækgaard, Lars

The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

Renormalization group evolution of neutrino parameters in presence of seesaw threshold effects and Majorana phases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shivani Gupta

2015-04-01

Full Text Available We examine the renormalization group evolution (RGE for different mixing scenarios in the presence of seesaw threshold effects from high energy scale (GUT to the low electroweak (EW scale in the Standard Model (SM and Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM. We consider four mixing scenarios namely Tri–Bimaximal Mixing, Bimaximal Mixing, Hexagonal Mixing and Golden Ratio Mixing which come from different flavor symmetries at the GUT scale. We find that the Majorana phases play an important role in the RGE running of these mixing patterns along with the seesaw threshold corrections. We present a comparative study of the RGE of all these mixing scenarios both with and without Majorana CP phases when seesaw threshold corrections are taken into consideration. We find that in the absence of these Majorana phases both the RGE running and seesaw effects may lead to θ13<5° at low energies both in the SM and MSSM. However, if the Majorana phases are incorporated into the mixing matrix the running can be enhanced both in the SM and MSSM. Even by incorporating non-zero Majorana CP phases in the SM, we do not get θ13 in its present 3σ range. The current values of the two mass squared differences and mixing angles including θ13 can be produced in the MSSM case with tan⁡β=10 and non-zero Majorana CP phases at low energy. We also calculate the order of effective Majorana mass and Jarlskog Invariant for each scenario under consideration.

Detailed analysis of the bundle damage scenario in the PHEBUS FPT0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Rae Joon; Kim, Sang Baik; Kim, Hee Dong; Yoo, Kun Joong

1998-03-01

The PHEBUS FP program and the test facility have been investigated, and the late phase melt progression in the PHEBUS FPT0 has been analyzed in the present study. The objectives of this program are to investigate fission product (FP) release and this program consists of six in-pile tests, which are FPT0, FPT1, FPT4, FPT2, FPT5, and FPT3, under different thermal hydraulic and fuel rod environment conditions. The first test, FPT0, was performed in December 1993, and the second test, FPT1, was performed in July 1996. The present study has been performed to evaluate a late phase damage scenario of the fuel bundle using the FPT0 test results, which are primarily a non-destructive Post Irradiation Examination (PIE) and a destructive PIE. The fuel bundle degradation scenario is summarized as follows: the fuel rod cladding failed at approximately 7,000 seconds; the control rod materials ruptured at 11,000 seconds; the stainless-steel reaction occurs at approximately 12,100 seconds; the upper fuel bundle materials melted and relocated to the elevation between 35 and 45 cm at the period between 14,750 and 15,200 seconds; the molten pool and the debris were formed at the elevation between 26 and 36 cm at the period between 15,200 and 18,100 seconds; the molten pool and the debris dropped the elevation between 15 and 25 cm from the bfc at approximately 18,100 seconds; the molten pool was finally quenched by the injected steam. (author). 45 refs., 10 tabs., 73 figs

The Scenario Planning Paradox

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

2017-01-01

planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Drunen, M.; Berkhout, F.

2011-09-01

It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www.climatescenarios.nl) that provides key

Study of the scenarios for the Cycle 12 of the Unit 1 of the CNLV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castillo, A.; Ortiz, J.J.; Montes, J.L.; Perusquia, R.

2005-01-01

In this work the preliminary results of a study of scenarios of it loads of fuel and operation of the Cycle 12 of the Unit 1 of the Laguna Verde power station are presented. Based on the Plan of Energy Use (PUE) for this cycle, they were studied different possibilities, with the idea to satisfy the energy demand under sure performance of the reactor. In this work were contemplated similar fuel assemblies to those that are using at the moment in the Cycle 11 of that unit. The reload proposals using the Haling principle and patterns of control bars with the intelligent technique not exhaustive well-known as taboo search are analyzed. The simulator Cm-Presto was used to evaluate the scenarios. This study even continuous analyzing different options and improving the results. (Author)

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dessai, S.; Xianfu Lu; Risbey, J.S.

2005-01-01

Climate scenarios have been widely used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments of climate change. However, few studies have actually looked at the role played by climate scenarios in adaptation planning. This paper examines how climate scenarios fit in three broad adaptation frameworks: the IPCC approach, risk approaches, and human development approaches. The use (or not) of climate scenarios in three real projects, corresponding to each adaptation approach, is investigated. It is shown that the role played by climate scenarios is dependant on the adaptation assessment approach, availability of technical and financial capacity to handle scenario information, and the type of adaptation being considered. (author)

Reactor physics studies in the steam flooded GCFR-Phase II critical assembly

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharyya, S.K.

1978-08-01

A possible accident scenario in a Gas-Cooled Fast Reactor (GCFR) is the leakage of secondary steam into the core. Considerable analytical effort has gone into the study of the effects of such an accidental steam entry. The work described represents the first full scale experimental study of the steam-entry phenomenon in GCFRs. The reference GCFR model used for the study was the benchmark GCFR Phase II assembly, and polyethylene foam was used to provide a very homogeneous steam simulation. The reactivity worth of steam entry was measured for three different steam densities. In addition, a set of integral physics parameters were measured in the largest steam density (0.008 g/cm 3 ) configuration. The corresponding parameters were also measured in dry reference GCFR critical assembly for comparison. The experiments were analyzed using ENDF/B-IV data and two-dimensional diffusion theory methods. As in earlier GCFR critical experiments analysis, the Benoist method was used to treat the problem of neutron streaming

Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duus, Henrik Johannsen

2016-01-01

insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

2013-01-01

After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

Scenario? Guilty!

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kyng, Morten

1992-01-01

Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Ertug Ercin

2016-05-01

Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

Learning from global emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2008-01-01

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

2015-12-01

Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk

An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Nyun-Bae; Yun, Sun-Jin; Jeon, Eui-Chan

2013-01-01

This paper analyzes the energy, environmental and economic influences of three electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using the “Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system” (LEAP) model. The reference year was 2008. Scenarios include the baseline (BL), new governmental policy (GP) and sustainable society (SS) scenarios. The growth rate of electricity demand in the GP scenario was higher than that of the BL scenario while the growth rate in the SS scenario was lower than that of the BL scenario. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation in 2050 in the BL and GP scenarios were similar with current emissions. However, emissions in 2050 in the SS scenario were about 80% lower than emissions in 2008, because of the expansion of renewable electricity in spite of the phase-out of nuclear energy. While nuclear and coal-fired power plants accounted for most of the electricity generated in the BL and GP scenarios in 2050, the SS scenario projected that renewable energy would generate the most electricity in 2050. It was found that the discounted cumulative costs from 2009 to 2050 in the SS scenario would be 20 and 10% higher than that of the BL and GP scenarios, respectively. - Highlights: ► This paper analyzed three kinds of electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using LEAP model. Baseline and governmental policy scenarios focus on the electricity supply through nuclear expansion. ► Sustainable Society scenario focuses on demand management and renewable electricity. ► The latter improves energy security and reduces more GHG with the affordable cost.

Efficiency of two-phase methods with focus on a planned population-based case-control study on air pollution and stroke

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Strömberg Ulf

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background We plan to conduct a case-control study to investigate whether exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2 increases the risk of stroke. In case-control studies, selective participation can lead to bias and loss of efficiency. A two-phase design can reduce bias and improve efficiency by combining information on the non-participating subjects with information from the participating subjects. In our planned study, we will have access to individual disease status and data on NO2 exposure on group (area level for a large population sample of Scania, southern Sweden. A smaller sub-sample will be selected to the second phase for individual-level assessment on exposure and covariables. In this paper, we simulate a case-control study based on our planned study. We develop a two-phase method for this study and compare the performance of our method with the performance of other two-phase methods. Methods A two-phase case-control study was simulated with a varying number of first- and second-phase subjects. Estimation methods: Method 1: Effect estimation with second-phase data only. Method 2: Effect estimation by adjusting the first-phase estimate with the difference between the adjusted and unadjusted second-phase estimate. The first-phase estimate is based on individual disease status and residential address for all study subjects that are linked to register data on NO2-exposure for each geographical area. Method 3: Effect estimation by using the expectation-maximization (EM algorithm without taking area-level register data on exposure into account. Method 4: Effect estimation by using the EM algorithm and incorporating group-level register data on NO2-exposure. Results The simulated scenarios were such that, unbiased or marginally biased ( Conclusion In the setting described here, method 4 had the best performance in order to improve efficiency, while adjusting for varying participation rates across areas.

Possibilities and Limitations of CFD Simulation for Flashing Flow Scenarios in Nuclear Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yixiang Liao

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The flashing phenomenon is relevant to nuclear safety analysis, for example by a loss of coolant accident and safety release scenarios. It has been studied intensively by means of experiments and simulations with system codes, but computational fluid dynamics (CFD simulation is still at the embryonic stage. Rapid increasing computer speed makes it possible to apply the CFD technology in such complex flow situations. Nevertheless, a thorough evaluation on the limitations and restrictions is still missing, which is however indispensable for reliable application, as well as further development. In the present work, the commonly-used two-fluid model with different mono-disperse assumptions is used to simulate various flashing scenarios. With the help of available experimental data, the results are evaluated, and the limitations are discussed. A poly-disperse method is found necessary for a reliable prediction of mean bubble size and phase distribution. The first attempts to trace the evolution of the bubble size distribution by means of poly-disperse simulations are made.

Selecting Days for Concept and Technology Evaluation in SMART-NAS Test-Bed Scenario Generation, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Crown Consulting, Inc. will investigate and demonstrate methods to enable rapid selection of days for scenario generation in the development and evaluation of Air...

Floating Offshore Wind in California: Gross Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Speer, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-04-18

Construction of the first offshore wind farm in the United States began in 2015, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off of the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to anchor to the deeper seafloor if deployed off of the West Coast. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind along the West Coast, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical, large-scale deployment scenarios for California: 16 GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario A) and 10 GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario B). The results of this analysis can be used to better understand the general scales of economic opportunities that could result from offshore wind development. Results show total state gross domestic product (GDP) impacts of $16.2 billion in Scenario B or $39.7 billion in Scenario A for construction; and $3.5 billion in Scenario B or $7.9 billion in Scenario A for the operations phases.

World Energy Scenarios to 2050: the Europe Region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weeda, E.

2006-01-01

The topic of this paper is an overview of the Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 study objectives, with emphasis on The Report for the Europe Region. The study is focused on achievement of the 3A's global energy goal (Accessibility, Availability, and Acceptability) by using various policy scenarios. The heart of the study will therefore be Policy Scenarios postulated within the context of two dimensions of government policy uncertainty. One with the dimension indicating whether the world is heading towards increased globalism and co-operation between governments and/or business and industry, or more towards bilateralism and nationalism outside global governance institutions. As outcomes, there is particularly described each of the four predicted scenarios: L'Europe des Patries, Fortress Europe, Confident Europe and Trailer Europe considering five main common indicators: political context, energy security, market forces/competition, environment/climate change, and energy mix/energy technology.(author)

Supporting conceptual product design by hybrid simulation of use processes with scenario structures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van der Vegte, W.F.; Horváth, I.

2007-01-01

The approach described in this paper aims to offer designers a new way to investigate use processes of products by integrating scenarios of expected user behaviour with simulations of physical artefact behaviour. Use is considered a key process in the life cycle of a product, being the phase in

Project Icarus: Stakeholder Scenarios for an Interstellar Exploration Program

Science.gov (United States)

Hein, A. M.; Tziolas, A. C.; Osborne, R.

The Project Icarus Study Group's objective is to design a mainly fusion-propelled interstellar probe. The starting point are the results of the Daedalus study, which was conducted by the British Interplanetary Society during the 1970's. As the Daedalus study already indicated, interstellar probes will be the result of a large scale, decade-long development program. To sustain a program over such long periods, the commitment of key stakeholders is vital. Although previous publications identified political and societal preconditions to an interstellar exploration program, there is a lack of more specific scientific and political stakeholder scenarios. This paper develops stakeholder scenarios which allow for a more detailed sustainability assessment of future programs. For this purpose, key stakeholder groups and their needs are identified and scientific and political scenarios derived. Political scenarios are based on patterns of past space programs but unprecedented scenarios are considered as well. Although it is very difficult to sustain an interstellar exploration program, there are scenarios in which this seems to be possible, e.g. the discovery of life within the solar system and on an exoplanet, a global technology development program, and dual-use of technologies for defence and security purposes. This is a submission of the Project Icarus Study Group.

'Netherlands in Triplicate' in detail. Comments to the scenario study 'Nederland in Drievoud' (Netherlands in Triplicate) of the Dutch Central Planning Bureau

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamminga, K.J.; Slotegraaf, G.; Van der Knoop, J.

1995-08-01

In 1992 the Dutch Central Planning Bureau (CPB) published the scenario studies 'Scanning the Future' and 'Nederland in Drievoud' (Netherlands in Triplicate or NiD). 'Scanning the Future' concerns the development of the world economy in the period 1990-2015, NiD concerns the development of the Dutch economy in the period 1990-2015. In this report comments are made regarding NiD. Chapter 1 focuses on the background and the goals of the NiD scenarios. These scenarios are projective, according to the CPB. The analytical framework or vision is based on the comparative strength analysis of the current state of the world economy and on the expected trends and challenges which might strongly influence the development of the world economy. The first chapter also deals with the assumptions chosen by the CPB. It is concluded that the CPB was searching for a balance between plausibility and provocation. If a scenario becomes too plausible their goal ('shaking up of mental maps') will not be achieved, whereas unreal predictions are irrelevant for policy makers. In chapter 2 the general scenario methodology is discussed and a scenario typology is derived including criteria which a well constructed scenario should meet. A distinction is made between scenarios, that are projective or explorative forecasting, and scenarios that are prospective, or speculative forecasting. Also another distinction is made: autonomous scenarios versus policy scenarios. Chapter 3 contains a closer look at the CPB study, based on the methodological considerations of Chapter 2. It is concluded that in the process of scenario development the goal was to create a coherent picture, fitting the assumptions on economic and human behaviour. The policy measures also had to match these assumptions. However, these assumptions imply certain norms and values. Therefore the NiD scenarios are rather prospective than projective. 3 figs., 1 tab., 26 refs., 2 appendices

Integrated transportation scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

Aircraft accident investigation: the decision-making in initial action scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Barreto, Marcia M; Ribeiro, Selma L O

2012-01-01

In the complex aeronautical environment, the efforts in terms of operational safety involve the adoption of proactive and reactive measures. The process of investigation begins right after the occurrence of the aeronautical accident, through the initial action. Thus, it is in the crisis scenario, that the person responsible for the initial action makes decisions and gathers the necessary information for the subsequent phases of the investigation process. Within this scenario, which is a natural environment, researches have shown the fragility of rational models of decision making. The theoretical perspective of naturalistic decision making constitutes a breakthrough in the understanding of decision problems demanded by real world. The proposal of this study was to verify if the initial action, after the occurrence of an accident, and the decision-making strategies, used by the investigators responsible for this activity, are characteristic of the naturalistic decision making theoretical approach. To attend the proposed objective a descriptive research was undertaken with a sample of professionals that work in this activity. The data collected through individual interviews were analyzed and the results demonstrated that the initial action environment, which includes restricted time, dynamic conditions, the presence of multiple actors, stress and insufficient information is characteristic of the naturalistic decision making. They also demonstrated that, when the investigators make their decisions, they use their experience and the mental simulation, intuition, improvisation, metaphors and analogues cases, as strategies, all of them related to the naturalistic approach of decision making, in order to satisfy the needs of the situation and reach the objectives of the initial action in the accident scenario.

Analysis of uncertainty propagation in nuclear fuel cycle scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krivtchik, Guillaume

2014-01-01

Nuclear scenario studies model nuclear fleet over a given period. They enable the comparison of different options for the reactor fleet evolution, and the management of the future fuel cycle materials, from mining to disposal, based on criteria such as installed capacity per reactor technology, mass inventories and flows, in the fuel cycle and in the waste. Uncertainties associated with nuclear data and scenario parameters (fuel, reactors and facilities characteristics) propagate along the isotopic chains in depletion calculations, and through out the scenario history, which reduces the precision of the results. The aim of this work is to develop, implement and use a stochastic uncertainty propagation methodology adapted to scenario studies. The method chosen is based on development of depletion computation surrogate models, which reduce the scenario studies computation time, and whose parameters include perturbations of the depletion model; and fabrication of equivalence model which take into account cross-sections perturbations for computation of fresh fuel enrichment. Then the uncertainty propagation methodology is applied to different scenarios of interest, considering different options of evolution for the French PWR fleet with SFR deployment. (author) [fr

Knowledge Brokerage for Impact Assessment of Land Use Scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China: Extending and Testing the FoPIA Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hannes J. König

2015-04-01

Full Text Available While land serves numerous societal functions and contributes to sustainable development, it is often unclear how these functions are affected by political decisions and common drivers of land use change, such as economic development, climate change and demographic change. This study evaluates alternative land use scenarios in reference to a rural region of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (China, where various processes and decisions have historically triggered unsustainable development. The scientifically tested “Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA” method is developed further to address specific features of the case study region, and its function as a knowledge-brokerage (KB tool is evaluated. Three scenarios are developed and analysed in expert workshops. “Land intensification: Agriculture” and “Land intensification: Mining” scenarios are found to have mainly negative environmental and social effects and positive economic impacts, while the “Environmental conservation and tourism” scenario is found to more positively affect all three sustainability dimensions. Assessments of methodological phases show that the FoPIA primarily serves to establish the KB process and that the framework particularly benefits from early examinations of scientific results by policy makers.

A TWO-PHASE SCENARIO FOR BULGE ASSEMBLY IN {Lambda}CDM COSMOLOGIES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Obreja, A.; Dominguez-Tenreiro, R.; Brook, C. [Departamento de Fisica Teorica, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, E-28049 Cantoblanco Madrid (Spain); Martinez-Serrano, F. J.; Domenech-Moral, M.; Serna, A. [Departamento de Fisica y Arquitectura de Computadores, Universidad Miguel Hernandez, E-03202 Elche (Spain); Molla, M. [Departamento de Investigacion Basica, CIEMAT, E-28040 Madrid (Spain); Stinson, G., E-mail: aura.obreja@uam.es [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Astronomie, Koenigstuhl 17, D-69117, Heidelberg (Germany)

2013-01-20

We analyze and compare the bulges of a sample of L {sub *} spiral galaxies in hydrodynamical simulations in a cosmological context, using two different codes, P-DEVA and GASOLINE. The codes regulate star formation in very different ways, with P-DEVA simulations inputting low star formation efficiency under the assumption that feedback occurs on subgrid scales, while the GASOLINE simulations have feedback that drives large-scale outflows. In all cases, the marked knee shape in mass aggregation tracks, corresponding to the transition from an early phase of rapid mass assembly to a later slower one, separates the properties of two populations within the simulated bulges. The bulges analyzed show an important early starburst resulting from the collapse-like fast phase of mass assembly, followed by a second phase with lower star formation, driven by a variety of processes such as disk instabilities and/or mergers. Classifying bulge stellar particles identified at z = 0 into old and young according to these two phases, we found bulge stellar sub-populations with distinct kinematics, shapes, stellar ages, and metal contents. The young components are more oblate, generally smaller, more rotationally supported, with higher metallicity and less alpha-element enhanced than the old ones. These results are consistent with the current observational status of bulges, and provide an explanation for some apparently paradoxical observations, such as bulge rejuvenation and metal-content gradients observed. Our results suggest that bulges of L {sub *} galaxies will generically have two bulge populations that can be likened to classical and pseudo-bulges, with differences being in the relative proportions of the two, which may vary due to galaxy mass and specific mass accretion and merger histories.

A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

2009-01-01

Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Evaluation methodology and prospective introduction scenarios of FR cycle systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujii, Sumio; Katoh, Atsushi; Sato, Kazujiro

2003-01-01

The 21st century society will be facing growing demand of energy, global environmental issues and concerns about fossil fuel exhaustion. In this society, it is essential to seek for a sustainable energy system to solve these energy-related concerns. In order to find ways for solving these problems, 'Feasibility Study on Commercialized FR Cycle System' was launched in 1999 as a joint research project of JNC, electric utilities, JAERI, CRIEPI etc. This project aims to build promising FR cycle technologies for the 21st century. Now, we are in the second phase (JFY 2001-2005) of this project. At the end of the second phase, we will propose promising concepts through applying innovative technologies. We started this Feasibility Study with defining the development target, which ended in five items; safety, economy, environmental burden, resource utilization and nuclear non-proliferation. These items should also serve as basic viewpoints to evaluate achievements of the study. This paper describes how we evaluate FR cycle options to come up with the final promising candidates. This paper also describes a prospective scenario to introduce FR cycle system, which shows how the FR cycle will be replacing existing LWRs by using limited natural uranium resource and spent fuels. (author)

Multiobjective optimization for nuclear fleet evolution scenarios using COSI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Freynet David

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The consequences of various fleet evolution options on material inventories and flux in fuel cycle and waste can be analysed by means of transition scenario studies. The COSI code is currently simulating chronologically scenarios whose parameters are fully defined by the user and is coupled with the CESAR depletion code. As the interactions among reactors and fuel cycle facilities can be complex, and the ways in which they may be configured are many, the development of optimization methodology could improve scenario studies. The optimization problem definition needs to list: (i criteria (e.g. saving natural resources and minimizing waste production; (ii variables (scenario parameters related to reprocessing, reactor operation, installed power distribution, etc.; (iii constraints making scenarios industrially feasible. The large number of scenario calculations needed to solve an optimization problem can be time-consuming and hardly achievable; therefore, it requires the shortening of the COSI computation time. Given that CESAR depletion calculations represent about 95% of this computation time, CESAR surrogate models have been developed and coupled with COSI. Different regression models are compared to estimate CESAR outputs: first- and second-order polynomial regressions, Gaussian process and artificial neural network. This paper is about a first optimization study of a transition scenario from the current French nuclear fleet to a Sodium Fast Reactors fleet as defined in the frame of the 2006 French Act for waste management. The present article deals with obtaining the optimal scenarios and validating the methodology implemented, i.e. the coupling between the simulation software COSI, depletion surrogate models and a genetic algorithm optimization method.

A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

1992-01-01

The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henrique Dias Blois

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

Development of RF Tools and Scenarios for ITER on JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noterdaeme, J.M.; Bobkov, V.; Mantsinen, M.; Salmi, A.; Santala, M.; Rantamaki, K.; Ekedahl, A.; Eriksson, L.G.; Lamalle, P.U.; Lyssoivan, A.; Van Eester, A.D.; Mailloux, J.; Monakhov, I.; Sharapov, S.; Mayoral, M.L.; Meo, F.

2005-01-01

The improvement of lower hybrid (LH) coupling with local puffing of D 2 gas, which made operation at ITER relevant distances (10 cm) and with ELMs (edge localized modes) a reality, has been extended to ITER- like plasma shapes with higher triangularity. With ICRF(ion cyclotron resonance frequency), we developed 4 tools such as -1) localized direct electron heating using the He 3 mode conversion scenario for electron heat transport studies, -2) the production of He 4 ions with energies in the MeV range by 3 ω c acceleration of beam injected ions at 120 keV to investigate Alfven instabilities and test α diagnostics, -3) the stabilisation and destabilization of sawteeth and -4) ICRF as as a wall conditioning. Several ITER relevant scenarios were tested. The (He 3 )H minority heating scenario, considered for the non-activated start-up phase of ITER, produces at very low concentration energetic He 3 which heat the electrons indirectly. For n(He 3 )/n e > 2%, the scenario is transformed to a mode conversion scenario where the electrons are heated directly. The (D)H minority heating is not accessible as the concentration of C 6+ dominates the wave propagation and always leads to a mode conversion. The minority heating of T in D is very effective heating for ions and producing neutrons. New results were obtained in several areas of ICRF physics. Experimental evidence confirmed the theoretical prediction that, as the Larmor radius increases beyond 0.5 times the perpendicular wavelength of the wave, the second harmonic acceleration of the ions decreases to very small levels. An exotic fusion reaction (pT) must be taken into account when evaluating neutron rates. The contribution of fast particles accelerated by ICRF to the plasma rotation was clearly identified, but it is only part of an underlying, and not yet understood, co-current plasma rotation. Progress was made in the physics of ELMs while their effect on the ICRF coupling could be minimized with the conjugate

Credibilistic multi-period portfolio optimization based on scenario tree

Science.gov (United States)

Mohebbi, Negin; Najafi, Amir Abbas

2018-02-01

In this paper, we consider a multi-period fuzzy portfolio optimization model with considering transaction costs and the possibility of risk-free investment. We formulate a bi-objective mean-VaR portfolio selection model based on the integration of fuzzy credibility theory and scenario tree in order to dealing with the markets uncertainty. The scenario tree is also a proper method for modeling multi-period portfolio problems since the length and continuity of their horizon. We take the return and risk as well cardinality, threshold, class, and liquidity constraints into consideration for further compliance of the model with reality. Then, an interactive dynamic programming method, which is based on a two-phase fuzzy interactive approach, is employed to solve the proposed model. In order to verify the proposed model, we present an empirical application in NYSE under different circumstances. The results show that the consideration of data uncertainty and other real-world assumptions lead to more practical and efficient solutions.

EMF 9 scenario design (EMF WP 9.4)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1989-01-01

This paper describes the specifications of the scenarios selected by the EMF 9 Working Group, which is focusing on North American natural gas markets. The four first-round scenarios include: (1) an upper oil price path, (2) a lower oil price path, (3) a lower resource base, and (4) a higher gas demand due to policies and technologies affecting the electric utility sector. Each scenario represents a combination of market and regulatory environments. For example, the upper oil price scenario combines an upper oil price trend with a reference set of resource and demand conditions and with a pro-competitive regulatory environment. This scenario also serves as a control case for comparing the other scenarios, which specify a change in one of the environments for oil prices, resources, or demand. The regulatory environment has been maintained constant across these first-round scenarios but may be changed depending upon the later recommendations of the regulatory policy and market structure study group. The next section describes the detailed specifications for modelers in simulating the upper oil price scenario. Guidance is offered for energy prices, economic activity, and resource base estimates. The next three sections describe the other three scenarios that involve changes in these inputs from their values in the upper oil price scenario. Special wellhead price assumptions for stand-alone supply models and plans for developing inputs for Canadian models are then discussed. The final section describes the output variables to be reported to the EMF staff for comparing model results

Learning Through Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balarezo, Jose

level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

Constellation Architecture Team-Lunar Scenario 12.0 Habitation Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Kennedy, Kriss J.; Toups, Larry D.; Rudisill, Marianne

2010-01-01

This paper will describe an overview of the Constellation Architecture Team Lunar Scenario 12.0 (LS-12) surface habitation approach and concept performed during the study definition. The Lunar Scenario 12 architecture study focused on two primary habitation approaches: a horizontally-oriented habitation module (LS-12.0) and a vertically-oriented habitation module (LS-12.1). This paper will provide an overview of the 12.0 lunar surface campaign, the associated outpost architecture, habitation functionality, concept description, system integration strategy, mass and power resource estimates. The Scenario 12 architecture resulted from combining three previous scenario attributes from Scenario 4 "Optimized Exploration", Scenario 5 "Fission Surface Power System" and Scenario 8 "Initial Extensive Mobility" into Scenario 12 along with an added emphasis on defining the excursion ConOps while the crew is away from the outpost location. This paper will describe an overview of the CxAT-Lunar Scenario 12.0 habitation concepts and their functionality. The Crew Operations area includes basic crew accommodations such as sleeping, eating, hygiene and stowage. The EVA Operations area includes additional EVA capability beyond the suitlock function such as suit maintenance, spares stowage, and suit stowage. The Logistics Operations area includes the enhanced accommodations for 180 days such as enhanced life support systems hardware, consumable stowage, spares stowage, interconnection to the other habitation elements, a common interface mechanism for future growth, and mating to a pressurized rover or Pressurized Logistics Module (PLM). The Mission & Science Operations area includes enhanced outpost autonomy such as an IVA glove box, life support, medical operations, and exercise equipment.

Frequency Analysis of Failure Scenarios from Shale Gas Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Abualfaraj, Noura; Gurian, Patrick L; Olson, Mira S

2018-04-29

This study identified and prioritized potential failure scenarios for natural gas drilling operations through an elicitation of people who work in the industry. A list of twelve failure scenarios of concern was developed focusing on specific events that may occur during the shale gas extraction process involving an operational failure or a violation of regulations. Participants prioritized the twelve scenarios based on their potential impact on the health and welfare of the general public, potential impact on worker safety, how well safety guidelines protect against their occurrence, and how frequently they occur. Illegal dumping of flowback water, while rated as the least frequently occurring scenario, was considered the scenario least protected by safety controls and the one of most concern to the general public. In terms of worker safety, the highest concern came from improper or inadequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE). While safety guidelines appear to be highly protective regarding PPE usage, inadequate PPE is the most directly witnessed failure scenario. Spills of flowback water due to equipment failure are of concern both with regards to the welfare of the general public and worker safety as they occur more frequently than any other scenario examined in this study.

Carolina Offshore Wind Integration Case Study: Phases I and II Final Technical Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fallon, Christopher [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Piper, Orvane [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Hazelip, William [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Zhao, Yishan [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Salvador, Lisa [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Pruitt, Tom [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Peterson, Jeffrey [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Ashby, Rebecca [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Pierce, Bob [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Burner, Bob [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Daniel, John [ABB, Inc., Cary, NC (United States); Zhu, Jinxiang [ABB, Inc., Cary, NC (United States); Moore, Maria [ABB, Inc., Cary, NC (United States); Liu, Shu [ABB, Inc., Cary, NC (United States); Pennock, Ken [AWS Truepower, LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Frank, Jaclyn [AWS Truepower, LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Ibanez, Eduardo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heaney, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bloom, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zhang, Yingchen [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Elliott, Dennis [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Seim, Harvey E. [Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States)

2015-04-30

Duke Energy performed a phase 1 study to assess the impact of offshore wind development in the waters off the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina. The study analyzed the impacts to the Duke Energy Carolinas electric power system of multiple wind deployment scenarios. Focusing on an integrated utility system in the Carolinas provided a unique opportunity to assess the impacts of offshore wind development in a region that has received less attention regarding renewables than others in the US. North Carolina is the only state in the Southeastern United States that currently has a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) which requires that 12.5% of the state’s total energy requirements be met with renewable resources by 2021. 12.5% of the state’s total energy requirements in 2021 equates to approximately 17,000 GWH of energy needed from renewable resources. Wind resources represent one of the ways to potentially meet this requirement. The study builds upon and augments ongoing work, including a study by UNC to identify potential wind development sites and the analysis of impacts to the regional transmission system performed by the NCTPC, an Order 890 planning entity of which DEC is a member. Furthermore, because the region does not have an independent system operator (ISO) or regional transmission organization (RTO), the study will provide additional information unique to non-RTO/ISO systems. The Phase 2 study builds on the results of Phase 1 and investigates the dynamic stability of the electrical network in Task 4, the operating characteristics of the wind turbines as they impact operating reserve requirements of the DEC utility in Task 5, and the production cost of integrating the offshore wind resources into the DEC generation fleet making comparisons to future planned operation without the addition of the wind resources in Task 6.

Modeling the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on wood production and carbon storage: A case study in the Mediterranean region.

Science.gov (United States)

Bottalico, Francesca; Pesola, Lucia; Vizzarri, Matteo; Antonello, Leonardo; Barbati, Anna; Chirici, Gherardo; Corona, Piermaria; Cullotta, Sebastiano; Garfì, Vittorio; Giannico, Vincenzo; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lombardi, Fabio; Marchetti, Marco; Nocentini, Susanna; Riccioli, Francesco; Travaglini, Davide; Sallustio, Lorenzo

2016-01-01

Forest ecosystems are fundamental for the terrestrial biosphere as they deliver multiple essential ecosystem services (ES). In environmental management, understanding ES distribution and interactions and assessing the economic value of forest ES represent future challenges. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit method based on a multi-scale approach (MiMoSe-Multiscale Mapping of ecoSystem services) to assess the current and future potential of a given forest area to provide ES. To do this we modified and improved the InVEST model in order to adapt input data and simulations to the context of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Specifically, we integrated a GIS-based model, scenario model, and economic valuation to investigate two ES (wood production and carbon sequestration) and their trade-offs in a test area located in Molise region (Central Italy). Spatial information and trade-off analyses were used to assess the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on investigated services. Scenario A was designed to describe the current Business as Usual approach. Two alternative scenarios were designed to describe management approaches oriented towards nature protection (scenario B) or wood production (scenario C) and compared to scenario A. Management scenarios were simulated at the scale of forest management units over a 20-year time period. Our results show that forest management influenced ES provision and associated benefits at the regional scale. In the test area, the Total Ecosystem Services Value of the investigated ES increases 85% in scenario B and decreases 82% in scenario C, when compared to scenario A. Our study contributes to the ongoing debate about trade-offs and synergies between carbon sequestration and wood production benefits associated with socio-ecological systems. The MiMoSe approach can be replicated in other contexts with similar characteristics, thus providing a useful basis for the projection of benefits from forest

Development formalization of the e-learning pedagogical scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Олександр Іванович Пушкар

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The place of the pedagogical scenario in development of the e-learning support system has been defined. The process of student's interaction with the system of e-learning in the form of a proper dialogue has been proposed. Peculiarities of constructing typical models of scenarios of academic disciplines have been analyzed. A technique for quantitative assessment of the relationships between the objects of study in the model of a pedagogical scenario has been offered

ILC Operating Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barklow, T.; Brau, J.; Fujii, K.; Gao, J.; List, J.; Walker, N.; Yokoya, K.; Collaboration: ILC Parameters Joint Working Group

2015-06-15

The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision energy of the ILC and expand the scientific impact of the ILC physics program. It is envisioned that a decision on a possible energy upgrade would be taken near the end of the twenty year period considered in this report.

Supersymmetric curvatons and phase-induced curvaton fluctuations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, John

2004-01-01

We consider the curvaton scenario in the context of supersymmetry (SUSY) with gravity-mediated SUSY breaking. In the case of a large initial curvaton amplitude during inflation and a negative order H 2 correction to the mass squared term after inflation, the curvaton will be close to the minimum of its potential at the end of inflation. In this case the curvaton amplitude fluctuations will be damped due to oscillations around the effective minimum of the curvaton potential, requiring a large expansion rate during inflation in order to account for the observed energy density perturbations, in conflict with cosmic microwave background constraints. Here we introduce a new curvaton scenario, the phase-induced curvaton scenario, in which de Sitter fluctuations of the phase of a complex SUSY curvaton field induce an amplitude fluctuation that is unsuppressed even in the presence of a negative order H 2 correction and large initial curvaton amplitude. This scenario is closely related to the Affleck-Dine mechanism and a curvaton asymmetry is naturally generated in conjunction with the energy density perturbations. Cosmological energy density perturbations can be explained with an expansion rate H≅10 12 GeV during inflation

Scenario-based strategizing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

2017-01-01

For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

Influence of reinforcement's corrosion into hyperstatic reinforced concrete beams: a probabilistic failure scenarios analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. P. PELLIZZER

Full Text Available AbstractThis work aims to study the mechanical effects of reinforcement's corrosion in hyperstatic reinforced concrete beams. The focus is the probabilistic determination of individual failure scenarios change as well as global failure change along time. The limit state functions assumed describe analytically bending and shear resistance of reinforced concrete rectangular cross sections as a function of steel and concrete resistance and section dimensions. It was incorporated empirical laws that penalize the steel yield stress and the reinforcement's area along time in addition to Fick's law, which models the chloride penetration into concrete pores. The reliability theory was applied based on Monte Carlo simulation method, which assesses each individual probability of failure. The probability of global structural failure was determined based in the concept of failure tree. The results of a hyperstatic reinforced concrete beam showed that reinforcements corrosion make change into the failure scenarios modes. Therefore, unimportant failure modes in design phase become important after corrosion start.

Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

2001-01-01

visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants......Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

40 Years of Shell Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-02-15

Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

Scenarios for 14C release to the atmosphere by the world nuclear industry and estimated radiological impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Till, J.E.; Killough, G.G.

1978-01-01

This paper presents an assessment of the radiation dose to the world population and the associated potential health effects from three scenarios of 14 C releases by the nuclear industry between 1975 and 2020. Measures of health impact are derived from source terms through the use of a multicompartment model of the global carbon cycle, dose-rate factors based on 14 C specific activity in various organs of man, and health-effect incidence factors recently recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The scenarios for worldwide 14 C releases considered are (1) a pessimistic scenario in which all the 14 C projected to be produced in fuel cycles is released, (2) an optimistic scenario that assumes a decontamination factor of 100 for fuel reprocessing, and (3) an intermediate scenario that simulates a phased improvement in effluent treatment technology at reprocessing plants. The estimates of cumulative potential health effects are based on integrations over infinite time. Comparisons with estimated effects from naturally formed 14 C are shown

OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

2001-01-01

Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies

Scenarios for remote gas production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

2009-01-01

The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

The cost of the nuclear energy-turnaround. An early nuclear phase-out and its consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baran, Metin

2013-01-01

The booklet on the consequences of an early nuclear phase-out includes a description of the value creation strategy in the electricity market and the basic relations of the electricity price formation and a survey and evaluation of selected studies. The analysis was performed for the following studies: Energy policy scenarios for a nuclear phase-out in Germany; Economic consequences of a nuclear phase-out in Germany; Transformation of the electricity production systems with a forced nuclear phase-out - a contribution on sustainable energy systems following the reactor accident of Fukushima; Cost of a nuclear phase-out until 2022 in Germany and Bavaria.

World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frei, Christoph; Whitney, Rob; Schiffer, Hans-Wilhelm; Rose, Karl; Rieser, Dan A.; Al-Qahtani, Ayed; Thomas, Philip; Turton, Hal; Densing, Martin; Panos, Evangelos; Volkart, Kathrin

2013-01-01

The World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050 is the result of a three-year study conducted by over 60 experts from nearly 30 countries, with modelling provided by the Paul Scherrer Institute. The report assesses two contrasting policy scenarios, the more consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario with a key differentiator being the ability of countries to pass through the Doha Climate Gateway. The WEC scenarios use an explorative approach to assess what is actually happening in the world now, to help gauge what will happen in the future and the real impact of today's choices on tomorrow's energy landscape. Rather than telling policy-makers and senior energy leaders what to do in order to achieve a specific policy goal, the WEC's World Energy Scenarios allow them to test the key assumptions that decision-makers decide to better shape the energy of tomorrow This document includes the French and English versions of the executive summary and the English version of the full report

SERENITY in e-Business and Smart Item Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Benameur, Azzedine; Khoury, Paul El; Seguran, Magali; Sinha, Smriti Kumar

SERENITY Artefacts, like Class, Patterns, Implementations and Executable Components for Security & Dependability (S&D) in addition to Serenity Runtime Framework (SRF) are discussed in previous chapters. How to integrate these artefacts with applications in Serenity approach is discussed here with two scenarios. The e-Business scenario is a standard loan origination process in a bank. The Smart Item scenario is an Ambient intelligence case study where we take advantage of Smart Items to provide an electronic healthcare infrastructure for remote healthcare assistance. In both cases, we detail how the prototype implementations of the scenarios select proper executable components through Serenity Runtime Framework and then demonstrate how these executable components of the S&D Patterns are deployed.

Concepts of Scenario Methods in Improvement of an Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edyta Bielinska-Dusza

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Purpose of the study, principal objectives, scope of the investigation, methods employed results and principal conclusion. Uncertainty makes both theoreticians and practicioners face new tasks to fulfil. Enterprises, in order to win the competitive struggle must constantly improve their processes and structures. On the other hand, thinking in the categories of the future becomes really difficult nowadays. This creates particularly convenient conditions to apply scenario methods. In connection with the above, the purpose of this study is to characterize the essence of scenario methods employed in enterprise development. The article addresses the issue of factors conditioning proper selection of methods in the enterprise development process, the principles of scenario planning and the opportunities to apply other techniques and methods in scenario planning.

What scenario studies tell about security of energy supply in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lako, P.; Jansen, J.C.

2001-06-01

A technical fact-finding study on security of energy supply has been performed from the European point of view and from the point of view of the Netherlands. A brief assessment is presented of fossil fuel resources. Based on data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and other literature, the reserves/production ratio of conventional and unconventional oil is estimated at approximately 200 years. Based on the same USGS data, the reserves/production ratio of conventional natural gas is estimated at 190 years. The unconventional gas resources are extremely large. However, environmental damage has to be prevented. The amount of recoverable resources will remain a question mark for the time being. The world's proved recoverable coal reserves amount to a reserves/production ratio of 230 years. All in all, oil remains a strategic fossil fuel, whereas the supply of natural gas seems to be more well-balanced and the supply of coal is more secure than both of oil and gas. The so-called Shared analysis project, performed by a number of research institutes in the EU, gives useful points of departure for energy policy formulation. However, the results of notably the reference scenario and to a lesser extent its variants in terms of primary energy use, CO2 emissions, and the EU's import dependence for fossil fuels have to be regarded carefully. A similar picture arises from IEA's World Energy Outlook 2000. The 'Out-look' gives due attention to OECD Europe's dependence on imported oil and gas. The share of oil imports is due to rise from 32% in 1990 to 80% in 2020. Due to a projected steady growth of gas consumption, import dependence with respect to natural gas is due to rise from 34% in 1997 to about 65% in 2020. In the scenarios developed by CPB, in collaboration with AVV, ECN, and RIVM, in 1997, the share of natural gas in total primary energy demand is projected to increase to 50-55% in all of the scenarios. In the most energy intensive scenarios, natural gas is

Technological study report on synthetic evaluation for FBR cycle. The report of the feasibility studies on commercialized FBR cycle system. Phase 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Ohtaki, Akira; Kofuji, Hirohide; Ono, Kiyoshi; Hirao, Kazunori

2001-03-01

This report is intended to explain the outline of the characteristic evaluation work on various FR cycle system concepts, following the design work, in the 1st phase of the JNC's 'Feasibility Study on Commercialized Fast Reactor Cycle System (the F/S)' (from 1999 to March 2001). The purpose of this characteristic evaluation is to reveal the performance of candidate FR cycle systems. For this synthetic estimation, six viewpoints, such as Economics, Effective utilization of uranium resource, Reduction of environmental impact, Safety, Proliferation resistance, and Technological feasibility, are selected. In addition, aiming at the practical use in phase 2, we examined an application to FBR research and development of cost benefit analysis method used for the policy evaluation. Furthermore, long-term nuclear material mass flow was analyzed and the scenario of 'FBR application for the hydrogen production' is proposed, considering how FBR would be utilized for the 21st century. And, a database including the various documents and data used for evaluation was constructed. (author)

2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-07-16

This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Nuclear fuel cycle scenarios at CGNPC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiao, Min; Zhou, Zhou; Nie, Li Hong; Mao, Guo Ping; Hao, Si Xiong; Shen, Kang

2008-01-01

Established in 1994, China Guangdong Nuclear Power Holding Co. (CGNPC) now owns two power stations GNPS and LNPS Phase I, with approximate 4000 MWe of installed capacity. With plant upgrades, advanced fuel management has been introduced into the two plants to improve the plant economical behavior with the high burnup fuel implemented. For the purpose of sustainable development, some preliminary studies on nuclear fuel cycle, especially on the back-end, have been carried out at CGNPC. According to the nuclear power development plan of China, the timing for operation and the capacity of the reprocessing facility are studied based on the amount of the spent fuel forecast in the future. Furthermore, scenarios of the fuel cycles in the future in China with the next generation of nuclear power were considered. Based on the international experiences on the spent fuel management, several options of spent fuel reprocessing strategies are investigated in detail, for example, MOX fuel recycling in light water reactor, especially in the current reactors of CGNPC, spent fuel intermediated storage, etc. All the investigations help us to draw an overall scheme of the nuclear fuel cycle, and to find a suitable road-map to achieve the sustainable development of nuclear power. (authors)

Exposure scenarios for workers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

2007-01-01

The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

Scenarios for the assessment of urban exposures after radioactive contamination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, D.N.G.; Guimarães, J.R.D.; Rochedo, E.R.R.

2015-01-01

Accidents involving radioactive material are not frequent but may include releases of radionuclides to the air, land or waterways. These releases are usually uncontrollable and may lead to doses in the public in excess of the reference levels established by regulations defined by the national regulatory agencies of each country. Although they had occurred sporadically since the last century, it was observed that, after the emergency phase, the public concern is enhanced when they feel that there is an unpreparedness of authorities responsible for remediation actions, due to the lack of definition of strategies to be adopted in the long term after such events. The aim of this work is to describe reference urban scenarios, considering the characteristics observed in residential and free access areas of urban centers. These scenarios were developed based on the counties surrounding the Brazilian nuclear power plant. Considering the counties within 50 km from the nuclear power plant, nine belong to the state of Rio de Janeiro and seven belong to São Paulo state; the highest population densities were observed in five counties of Rio de Janeiro. Based on the different types of residences and outdoor areas observed in these 16 counties, six reference scenarios for urban areas were developed including areas comprised by four types of residential houses (with low, medium and high shielding building material and houses in a row), apartments in buildings, and park areas with lawn and trees. The characteristics of each of these scenarios were raised through Google Earth images considering 1 km 2 of different locations comprised by each type of area defined. In a next step, the information obtained in each scenario shall be used in computer simulations to characterize the effects and consequences on public exposure of the application of decontamination procedures. (authors)

In vivo x-ray phase contrast analyzer-based imaging for longitudinal osteoarthritis studies in guinea pigs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coan, Paola [Faculty of Medicine and Institute of Clinical Radiology, Ludwig-Maximilians University, Munich (Germany); Wagner, Andreas; Mollenhauer, Juergen [Department of Orthopaedics of the University of Jena, Rudolf-Elle-Hospital Eisenberg (Germany); Bravin, Alberto; Diemoz, Paul C; Keyrilaeinen, Jani, E-mail: Paola.Coan@physik.uni-muenchen.d [European Synchrotron Radiation Facility (ESRF), Grenoble (France)

2010-12-21

Over the last two decades phase contrast x-ray imaging techniques have been extensively studied for applications in the biomedical field. Published results demonstrate the high capability of these imaging modalities of improving the image contrast of biological samples with respect to standard absorption-based radiography and routinely used clinical imaging techniques. A clear depiction of the anatomic structures and a more accurate disease diagnosis may be provided by using radiation doses comparable to or lower than those used in current clinical methods. In the literature many works show images of phantoms and excised biological samples proving the high sensitivity of the phase contrast imaging methods for in vitro investigations. In this scenario, the applications of the so-called analyzer-based x-ray imaging (ABI) phase contrast technique are particularly noteworthy. The objective of this work is to demonstrate the feasibility of in vivo x-ray ABI phase contrast imaging for biomedical applications and in particular with respect to joint anatomic depiction and osteoarthritis detection. ABI in planar and tomographic modes was performed in vivo on articular joints of guinea pigs in order to investigate the animals with respect to osteoarthritis by using highly monochromatic x-rays of 52 keV and a low noise detector with a pixel size of 47 x 47 {mu}m{sup 2}. Images give strong evidence of the ability of ABI in depicting both anatomic structures in complex systems as living organisms and all known signs of osteoarthritis with high contrast, high spatial resolution and with an acceptable radiation dose. This paper presents the first proof of principle study of in vivo application of ABI. The technical challenges encountered when imaging an animal in vivo are discussed. This experimental study is an important step toward the study of clinical applications of phase contrast x-ray imaging techniques.

Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

2014-01-01

The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

2002-01-01

This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-01

;reference' at national level. - Finally, the MEDEE energy demand model applied in the CAS scenarios relies primarily on 2000 data, despite the existence of sufficiently complete statistics through to 2005. The DGEMP on the other hand used a study by the BIPE (Office for Economic Information and Forecasting) provided by the SESP, the Ministry for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and Spatial Planning's economic statistics and forecasting department. On the basis of the study's macro-economic projections of the French economy to 2020, the DGEMP was able to re-evaluate the prospects for activity in the industrial and tertiary sectors. In several respects (e.g. supply security, CO{sub 2} emissions, energy efficiency), the baseline scenario proposed here is clearly not a scenario conducive to satisfying French energy policy objectives. This is not a surprising conclusion in that it implies the need to implement new policies and measures in addition to those already in place or approved. In particular, this scenario would lead to importing 66 billion cubic meters of gas (59 Mtoe) in 2020 and 78 billion cubic meters (70 Mtoe) in 2030, compared with the present 44 billion cubic meters. In addition to the resulting CO{sub 2} emissions, the near doubling of gas imports would pose a twofold problem as to the geographic origin of the gas imported (under appropriate supply contracts) and the infrastructure (LNG terminals, gas pipelines) required to transport it. Finally, the baseline scenario is of course a long way from achieving the Community targets, whether for CO{sub 2} emissions, projected to rise continually until 2020 and then even faster until 2030 (due to transport and electric power generation), or for the share of renewable energy in the energy mix. In that regard, the share of renewable energy in 'enlarged' final energy consumption, as it is described in the 'energy and climate change package', would grow to 13.4% in 2020 (versus 23% in the

A Flexible Socioeconomic Scenarios Framework for the Study of Plausible Arctic Futures

Science.gov (United States)

Reissell, A. K.; Peters, G. P.; Riahi, K.; Kroglund, M.; Lovecraft, A. L.; Nilsson, A. E.; Preston, B. L.; van Ruijven, B. J.

2016-12-01

Future developments of the Arctic region are associated with different drivers of change - climate, environmental, and socio-economic - and their interactions, and are highly uncertain. The uncertainty poses challenges for decision-making, calling for development of new analytical frameworks. Scenarios - coherent narratives describing potential futures, pathways to futures, and drivers of change along the way - can be used to explore the consequences of the key uncertainties, particularly in the long-term. In a participatory scenarios workshop, we used both top-down and bottom-up approaches for the development of a flexible socioeconomic scenarios framework. The top-down approach was linked to the global Integrated Assessment Modeling framework and its Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), developing an Arctic extension of the set of five storylines on the main socioeconomic uncertainties in global climate change research. The bottom-up approach included participatory development of narratives originating from within the Arctic region. For extension of global SSPs to the regional level, we compared the key elements in the global SSPs (Population, Human Development, Economy & Lifestyle, Policies & Institutions, Technology, and Environment & Natural Resources) and key elements in the Arctic. Additional key elements for the Arctic scenarios include, for example, seasonal migration, the large role of traditional knowledge and culture, mixed economy, nested governance structure, human and environmental security, quality of infrastructure. The bottom-up derived results suggested that the scenarios developed independent of the SSPs could be mapped back to the SSPs to demonstrate consistency with respect to representing similar boundary conditions. The two approaches are complimentary, as the top-down approach can be used to set the global socio-economic and climate boundary conditions, and the bottom-up approach providing the regional context. One key uncertainty and

Computer enhanced release scenario analysis for a nuclear waste repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stottlemyre, J.A.; Petrie, G.M.; Mullen, M.F.

1979-01-01

An interactive (user-oriented) computer tool is being developed at PNL to assist in the analysis of release scenarios for long-term safety assessment of a continental geologic nuclear waste repository. Emphasis is on characterizing the various ways the geologic and hydrologic system surrounding a repository might vary over the 10 6 to 10 7 years subsequent to final closure of the cavern. The potential disruptive phenomena are categorized as natural geologic and man-caused and tend to be synergistic in nature. The computer tool is designed to permit simulation of the system response as a function of the ongoing disruptive phenomena and time. It is designed to be operated in a determinatic manner, i.e., user selection of the desired scenarios and associated rate, magnitude, and lag time data; or in a stochastic mode. The stochastic mode involves establishing distributions for individual phenomena occurrence probabilities, rates, magnitudes, and phase relationships. A Monte-Carlo technique is then employed to generate a multitude of disruptive event scenarios, scan for breaches of the repository isolation, and develop input to the release consequence analysis task. To date, only a simplified one-dimensional version of the code has been completed. Significant modification and development is required to expand its dimensionality and apply the tool to any specific site

Scenario analysis of sustainable development of the world largest ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this study, scenario analysis of the social development and environmental protection ... Scenario 2 is obviously more preferable though its ecological goal is not the most ... International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology, Vol.

Phase transitions and baryogenesis from decays

Science.gov (United States)

Shuve, Brian; Tamarit, Carlos

2017-10-01

We study scenarios in which the baryon asymmetry is generated from the decay of a particle whose mass originates from the spontaneous breakdown of a symmetry. This is realized in many models, including low-scale leptogenesis and theories with classical scale invariance. Symmetry breaking in the early universe proceeds through a phase transition that gives the parent particle a time-dependent mass, which provides an additional departure from thermal equilibrium that could modify the efficiency of baryogenesis from out-of-equilibrium decays. We characterize the effects of various types of phase transitions and show that an enhancement in the baryon asymmetry from decays is possible if the phase transition is of the second order, although such models are typically fine-tuned. We also stress the role of new annihilation modes that deplete the parent particle abundance in models realizing such a phase transition, reducing the efficacy of baryogenesis. A proper treatment of baryogenesis in such models therefore requires the inclusion of the effects we study in this paper.

Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

2009-01-01

Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

Gravitation, phase transitions, and the big bang

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krauss, L.M.

1982-01-01

Introduced here is a model of the early universe based on the possibility of a first-order phase transition involving gravity, and arrived at by a consideration of instabilities in the semiclassical theory. The evolution of the system is very different from the standard Friedmann-Robertson-Walker big-bang scenario, indicating the potential importance of semiclassical finite-temperature gravitational effects. Baryosynthesis and monopole production in this scenario are also outlined

Scenarios and innovative systems; Scenarii et systemes innovants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-11-01

The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Energy scenarios for New Zealand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

1977-10-15

Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

Energy Revolution. A Sustainable Pathway to a Clean Energy Future for Europe. A European Energy Scenario for EU-25

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teske, S.; Baker, C.

2005-09-01

Greenpeace and the Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, Department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment of the German Aerospace Center (DLR),have developed a blueprint for the EU energy supply that shows how Europe can lead the way to a sustainable pathway to a clean energy future. The Greenpeace energy revolution scenario demonstrates that phasing out nuclear power and massively reducing CO2-emissions is possible. The scenario comes close to a fossil fuels phase-out by aiming for a 80% CO2 emissions reduction by 2050.The pathway in this scenario achieves this phase-out in a relatively short time-frame without using technological options (such as 'clean coal') that are ultimately dead ends, deflecting resources from the real solutions offered by renewable energy. Whilst there are many technical options that will allow us to meet short-term EU Kyoto targets (-8% GHG by 2010), these may have limited long-term potential. The Greenpeace Energy Revolution Scenario shows that in the long run, renewable energy will be cheaper than conventional energy sources and reduce EU's dependence from world market prices from imported fossil and nuclear fuels.The rapid growth of renewable energy technologies will lead to a large investment in new technologies.This dynamic market growth will result in a shift of employment opportunities from conventional energy-related industries to new occupational fields in the renewable energy industry. Renewable energy is expected to provide about 700,000 jobs in the field of electricity generation from renewable energy sources by 2010

Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

2011-01-01

A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

Rural energy survey and scenario analysis of village energy consumption: A case study in Lao People's Democratic Republic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mustonen, S.M.

2010-01-01

In developing countries, providing all citizens an access to modern forms of energy is among the central energy policy objectives, as the linkages between modern energy services and human development are widely recognized. This paper presents in a scenario analysis of rural energy consumption, how energy services in different sectors of a village economy contribute to the achievement of the UNDP Millennium Development Goals. In a rural village in Lao People's Democratic Republic, household energy demand and energy uses were surveyed immediately prior to the electrification of the village. Based on the situation preceding electrification of the village, the development of village electrification was studied by simulating the village energy system, accounting for all village energy uses but transportation. To study the potential development of electricity demand in the village, three scenarios were constructed using the LEAP model: 'residential demand', 'income generation' and 'public services'. Energy demand in each scenario was analyzed with reference to the Millennium Development Goals.

Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

2011-07-15

There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

Energy market impacts of nuclear power phase-out policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glomsroed, Solveig; Taoyuan, Wei; Mideksa, Torben; Samset, Bjoern H.

2013-03-01

After the Fukushima disaster in March 2011 safety concerns have escalated and policies towards nuclear power are being reconsidered in several countries. This article presents a study of the effect of nuclear power phase-out on regional electricity prices. We consider 4 scenarios with various levels of ambition to scale down the nuclear industry using a multiple region, multiple sector global general equilibrium model. Non-nuclear power production follows the New Policies scenario of the World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2010). Phase-out in Germany and Switzerland increases electricity prices of OECD-Europe moderately by 2-3 per cent early on to 4-5 per cent by 2035 if transmission capacity within the region is sufficient. If all regions shut down old plants built before 2011, North America, OECD-Europe and Japan face increasing electricity prices in the range of 23-28 per cent in 2035. These price increases illustrate the incentives for further investments in renewable electricity or improved technologies in nuclear power production. (Author)

Energy Market Impacts of Nuclear Power Phase-Out Policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glomsroed, Solveig; Taoyuan, Wei; Mideksa, Torben; Samset, Bjoern H.

2013-01-01

After the Fukushima disaster in March 2011 safety concerns have escalated and policies towards nuclear power are being reconsidered in several countries. This article presents a study of the effect of nuclear power phase-out on regional electricity prices. We consider 4 scenarios with various levels of ambition to scale down the nuclear industry using a multiple region, multiple sector global general equilibrium model. Non-nuclear power production follows the New Policies scenario of the World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2010). Phase-out in Germany and Switzerland increases electricity prices of OECD-Europe moderately by 2-3 per cent early on to 4-5 per cent by 2035 if transmission capacity within the region is sufficient. If all regions shut down old plants built before 2011, North America, OECD-Europe and Japan face increasing electricity prices in the range of 23-28 per cent in 2035. These price increases illustrate the incentives for further investments in renewable electricity or improved technologies in nuclear power production. (Author)

Analysis of the thermomechanical behavior of the IFMIF bayonet target assembly under design loading scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernardi, D., E-mail: davide.bernardi@enea.it [ENEA Brasimone, Camugnano, BO (Italy); Arena, P.; Bongiovì, G.; Di Maio, P.A. [Dipartimento di Energia, Ingegneria dell’Informazione e Modelli Matematici, Università di Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, Palermo (Italy); Frisoni, M. [ENEA Bologna, Via Martiri di Monte Sole 4, Bologna (Italy); Miccichè, G.; Serra, M. [ENEA Brasimone, Camugnano, BO (Italy)

2015-10-15

In the framework of the IFMIF Engineering Validation and Engineering Design Activities (IFMIF/EVEDA) phase, ENEA is responsible for the design of the European concept of the IFMIF lithium target system which foresees the possibility to periodically replace only the most irradiated and thus critical component (i.e., the backplate) while continuing to operate the rest of the target for a longer period (the so-called bayonet backplate concept). In this work, the results of the steady state thermomechanical analysis of the IFMIF bayonet target assembly under two different design loading scenarios (a “hot” scenario and a “cold” scenario) are briefly reported highlighting the relevant indications obtained with respect to the fulfillment of the design requirements. In particular, the analyses have shown that in the hot scenario the temperatures reached in the target assembly are within the material acceptable limits while in the cold scenario transition below the ductile to brittle transition temperature (DBTT) cannot be excluded. Moreover, results indicate that the contact between backplate and high flux test module is avoided and that the overall structural integrity of the system is assured in both scenarios. However, stress linearization analysis reveals that ITER Structural Design Criteria for In-vessel Components (SDC-IC) design rules are not always met along the selected paths at backplate middle plane section in the hot scenario, thus suggesting the need of a revision of the backplate design or a change of the operating conditions.

DNA transfer-a never ending story. A study on scenarios involving a second person as carrier.

Science.gov (United States)

Helmus, Janine; Bajanowski, Thomas; Poetsch, Micaela

2016-01-01

The transfer of DNA directly from one item to another has been shown in many studies with elaborate discussions on the nature of the DNA donor as well as material and surface of the items or surrounding features. Every DNA transfer scenario one can imagine seems to be possible. This evokes more and more intricate scenarios proposed by lawyers or attorneys searching for an explanation of the DNA of a certain person on a distinct item with impact on a crime. At court, the forensic genetic scientist has to comment on the probability of these scenarios thus calling for extensive studies on such settings. Here, the possibility of an involvement of a second person as a carrier of the donor's DNA in a variety of different scenarios including three pairs of people and two kinds of items (textiles and plastic bags) was investigated. All transfer settings were executed with and without gloves on the carrier's hands. DNA left on the items was isolated and analyzed using the Powerplex® ESX17 kit. In 21 out of 180 samples, all alleles of the donor DNA could be obtained on the second item (12%), on eight samples, the donor's DNA was dominant compared to all other alleles (38% of samples with complete donor profile). Additionally, 51 samples displayed at least more than half of the donor's alleles (28%). The complete DNA profile of the carrier was found in 47 out of 180 samples (42 partial profiles). In summary, it could be shown that a transfer of donor DNA from epithelial cells through a carrier to a second item is possible, even if the carrier does not wear gloves.

Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Lene

2004-01-01

design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

Producing a scale-invariant spectrum of perturbations in a Hagedorn phase of string cosmology.

Science.gov (United States)

Nayeri, Ali; Brandenberger, Robert H; Vafa, Cumrun

2006-07-14

We study the generation of cosmological perturbations during the Hagedorn phase of string gas cosmology. Using tools of string thermodynamics we provide indications that it may be possible to obtain a nearly scale-invariant spectrum of cosmological fluctuations on scales which are of cosmological interest today. In our cosmological scenario, the early Hagedorn phase of string gas cosmology goes over smoothly into the radiation-dominated phase of standard cosmology, without having a period of cosmological inflation.

Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

2012-01-01

The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

Weather scenarios for dose calculations with incomplete meteorological data. V.IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alp, E.; Lam, L.H.; Moran, M.D.

1985-09-01

This report documents a study to substantiate or modify the weather scenarios proposed by the Atomic Energy Control Board Staff Position Paper on meteorological acceptance criteria for estimating the potential radiological consequences of postulated accidents (AECB, 1982) for short-, prolonged-, and long-term releases from ground level and elevated sources. The study examined available meteorological data in Canada to determine whether the AECB-proposed scenarios are sufficiently general that they are appropriate and conservative for any potential nuclear power plant in Canada, but also realistic, i.e., not so conservative that the results of dose calculations using these scenarios would be wholly unrepresentative leading to incorrect design decisions. Three different sets of scenarios were derived using three site-specific data sets from weather stations that are representative of existing nuclear power plants in Canada. When compared, the scenarios for the three sites are not significantly different from each other, especially in terms of trends, considering that they have been based on data from widely differing meteorological regions in Canada. Conservative envelopes of the scenarios for the three sites were taken to give the recommended general weather scenario set. The recommended set was then compared with the AECB proposed scenarios. The recommended scenarios are, in general, conservative

SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

2015-12-01

Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

From scenarios to components

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fahland, D.

2010-01-01

Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

Study of SmS properties in the low pressure phase (black phase)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bordier, G.

1986-01-01

SmS was studied for the transition from low pressure phase (black phase) to high pressure phase with an intermediate valence. But the study of the black phase is very rich. The variations of electron transport properties with pressure at low temperature show a semi-metal phase located, in the pressure-temperature diagram in the black phase for pressure over 4 kbars, corresponding to the phase B'of the doping-temperature diagram. Electron spin resonance shows a lack of sulfur and nearby this defect a samarium ion, magnetically coupled with the matrix, presents a divalent trivalent transition. Resonance lines are broadened with temperature. Conductivity relaxations occur at low pressure and low temperature by trapping a conduction electron, by magnetic exchange giving a bounded magnetic polaron. The relaxation time at null magnetic field is activated. An approximation of trapping barrier and critical field corresponding the maximum magnetoresistance is given by a model [fr

Documentation and evaluation of model validation data used in scenario S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rantavaara, A.; Arvela, H.; Suomela, M.

1996-01-01

Most radioactive fallout received in Finland after the Chernobyl nuclear accident originated in the first major release and spread over the test region between April 27 and 29, 1986. Most radioactive material was deposited with heavy showers which caused an uneven areal distribution. Deposition continued with varying intensity until May 12. At the end of April the growing season had not yet begun in Finland. Estimation of the mean deposition density was one of the modelling tasks. To avoid a biased starting point for foodchain assessments due to modellers' own deposition estimates, the mean deposition density of 137 Cs in each subregion used in the scenario was given as input information. The model validation test was started as a blind test. All regional information in the scenario description was coded, and the first maps of subregions were schematic to hide the actual test area. The blind test idea was gradually cancelled in the course of the exercise. The geographical region S was revealed after deposition estimates were made. At the same time, sources of information in the open literature became available to the modellers. After the blind test phase, communication was encouraged between modellers and the compiler of the scenario description at the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) to avoid unnecessary misinterpretations of input information. Clarifications and additional information provided in the course of model calculations are included in the present scenario description. 100 refs, 31 figs, 67 tabs

Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Contaldi, Mario

2005-01-01

This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

Centrifuge workers study. Phase II, completion report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wooten, H.D.

1994-09-01

Phase II of the Centrifuge Workers Study was a follow-up to the Phase I efforts. The Phase I results had indicated a higher risk than expected among centrifuge workers for developing bladder cancer when compared with the risk in the general population for developing this same type of cancer. However, no specific agent could be identified as the causative agent for these bladder cancers. As the Phase II Report states, Phase I had been limited to workers who had the greatest potential for exposure to substances used in the centrifuge process. Phase II was designed to expand the survey to evaluate the health of all employees who had ever worked in Centrifuge Program Departments 1330-1339 but who had not been interviewed in Phase I. Employees in analytical laboratories and maintenance departments who provided support services for the Centrifuge Program were also included in Phase II. In December 1989, the Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU), now known as Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE), was contracted to conduct a follow-up study (Phase II). Phase H of the Centrifuge Workers Study expanded the survey to include all former centrifuge workers who were not included in Phase I. ORISE was chosen because they had performed the Phase I tasks and summarized the corresponding survey data therefrom

Centrifuge workers study. Phase II, completion report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wooten, H.D.

1994-09-01

Phase II of the Centrifuge Workers Study was a follow-up to the Phase I efforts. The Phase I results had indicated a higher risk than expected among centrifuge workers for developing bladder cancer when compared with the risk in the general population for developing this same type of cancer. However, no specific agent could be identified as the causative agent for these bladder cancers. As the Phase II Report states, Phase I had been limited to workers who had the greatest potential for exposure to substances used in the centrifuge process. Phase II was designed to expand the survey to evaluate the health of all employees who had ever worked in Centrifuge Program Departments 1330-1339 but who had not been interviewed in Phase I. Employees in analytical laboratories and maintenance departments who provided support services for the Centrifuge Program were also included in Phase II. In December 1989, the Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU), now known as Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE), was contracted to conduct a follow-up study (Phase II). Phase H of the Centrifuge Workers Study expanded the survey to include all former centrifuge workers who were not included in Phase I. ORISE was chosen because they had performed the Phase I tasks and summarized the corresponding survey data therefrom.

Scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

2015-01-01

We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Role of innovative technologies under the global zero emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tokimatsu, Koji; Konishi, Satoshi; Ishihara, Keiichi; Tezuka, Tetsuo; Yasuoka, Rieko; Nishio, Masahiro

2016-01-01

Highlights: • We modeled a zero emissions scenario based on the A1T scenario of IPCC-SRES. • We conducted global modeling by minimizing costs of energy, biomass, and materials. • A variety of advanced technology innovations were considered and incorporated. • Results suggest that zero emissions scenario may be possible in this century. • We revealed energy supply structure under the zero emissions scenarios. - Abstract: This study investigated zero emissions scenarios with following two originalities compared to various existing studies. One is that we based on A1T society of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenario) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) compared to existing studies on those of B1 or B2. The second one is that various innovative technologies were considered and incorporated, such as biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and advanced nuclear technologies including hydrogen or synfuel production. We conducted global modeling over the period 2010–2150 in which energy, materials, and biomass and foods supply costs were minimized by linear programming. We found following features of energy supply structure in A1T scenario. Since the electric demand in A1T scenario in 2100 is two times larger than the others, (1) renewable energy which solely produce electricity, nuclear, and fossil energy with CCS (FECCS) especially coal are main sources of electricity, (2) renewable which can supply heat, namely BECCS and geothermal, satisfies the sector, and (3) hydrogen from coal is introduced in transport sector. It can be concluded that the zero emission energy systems with global economic growth will be possible, by development and deployment of ambitious advanced energy technologies.

Japanese FR Deployment Scenario Study after the Fukushima Accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ono, Kiyoshi; Shiotani, Hiroki; Ohtaki, Akira; Mukaida, Kyoko; Abe, Tomoyuki

2013-01-01

Conclusion: • The results revealed a need for the implementation of reprocessing and development of FR from the view point of reducing waste, etc. in the medium to long term. • JAEA’s contribution to international cooperation and standardization focusing on the enhancement of safety and reduction of the radioactive waste burden will be increasingly important in current situation. • JAEA intend to continue to build and propose FR deployment scenarios and identify their characteristics

Preliminary considerations on the startup phase for the ASTRID core

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mignot, G.

2015-01-01

This paper presents preliminary considerations on the startup phase for the ASTRID core, as well as an overview of the different steps before reaching the optimised equilibrium core. The start-up phase is assumed to cover the period between loading the dummy core into the reactor (for commissioning tests) and achieving the optimised equilibrium core. Four main stages are considered: a first stage of start-up tests before fuel core loading, a second stage related to zero power and power ramp-up tests, a third stage corresponding to the transition from the first core to the equilibrium contractual core, and the last stage to reach the optimised performance for the equilibrium core. In the two last stages, a sub-assembly surveillance plan based on post-irradiation examinations is taken into account. As this work is in its preliminary stages, the first scenarios shown for the start-up phase must not be considered as the ASTRID reference scenarios. The scenarios strongly depend on the assumptions considered in the analysis, whereas those discussed in this paper aim at outlining the content and the duration of the starting phases for the ASTRID core, which will be useful in subsequently assessing the core sub-assembly fabrication needs. Assumptions for the start-up phase will be updated in accordance with progress on the ASTRID core design development and core qualification programme. (author)

Making or breaking climate targets : The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Bauer, Nico; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Petermann, Nils; Bosetti, Valentina; Marcucci, Adriana; Otto, Sander; Paroussos, Leonidas; Rao, Shilpa; Arroyo Currás, Tabaré; Ashina, Shuichi; Bollen, Johannes; Eom, Jiyong; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Longden, Thomas; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Sano, Fuminori; Schaeffer, Michiel; Wada, Kenichi; Capros, Pantelis; P. van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2015-01-01

This study explores a situation of staged accession to a global climate policy regime from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition - the EU or the EU and China - embarks on immediate ambitious

Phase Curve Analysis of Super-Earth 55 Cancri e

Science.gov (United States)

Angelo, Isabel; Hu, Renyu

2018-01-01

One of the primary questions when characterizing Earth-sized and super-Earth-sized exoplanets is whether they have a substantial atmosphere like Earth and Venus, or a bare-rock surface that may come with a tenuous atmosphere like Mercury. Phase curves of the planets in thermal emission provide clues to this question, because a substantial atmosphere would transport heat more efficiently than a bare-rock surface. Analyzing phase curve photometric data around secondary eclipse has previously been used to study energy transport in the atmospheres of hot Jupiters. Here we use phase curve, Spitzer time-series photometry to study the thermal emission properties of the super-Earth exoplanet 55 Cancri e. We utilize a previously developed semi-analytical framework to fit a physical model to infrared photometric data of host star 55 Cancri from the Spitzer telescope IRAC 2 band at 4.5 μm. The model uses various parameters of planetary properties including Bond albedo, heat redistribution efficiency (i.e., the ratio between the radiative timescale and advective timescale of the photosphere), and atmospheric greenhouse factor. The phase curve of 55 Cancri e is dominated by thermal emission with an eastward-shifted hot spot located on the planet surface. We determine the heat redistribution efficiency to be ≈1.47, which implies that the advective timescale is on the same order as the radiative timescale. This requirement from the phase curve cannot be met by the bare-rock planet scenario, because heat transport by currents of molten lava would be too slow. The phase curve thus favors the scenario with a substantial atmosphere. Our constraints on the heat redistribution efficiency translate to a photosphere pressure of ~1.4 bar. The Spitzer IRAC 2 band is thus a window into the deep atmosphere of the planet 55 Cancri e.

Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

Science.gov (United States)

Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

2014-05-01

Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

Cognitive—Motor Interference in an Ecologically Valid Street Crossing Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christin Janouch

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Laboratory-based research revealed that gait involves higher cognitive processes, leading to performance impairments when executed with a concurrent loading task. Deficits are especially pronounced in older adults. Theoretical approaches like the multiple resource model highlight the role of task similarity and associated attention distribution problems. It has been shown that in cases where these distribution problems are perceived relevant to participant's risk of falls, older adults prioritize gait and posture over the concurrent loading task. Here we investigate whether findings on task similarity and task prioritization can be transferred to an ecologically valid scenario. Sixty-three younger adults (20–30 years of age and 61 older adults (65–75 years of age participated in a virtual street crossing simulation. The participants' task was to identify suitable gaps that would allow them to cross a simulated two way street safely. Therefore, participants walked on a manual treadmill that transferred their forward motion to forward displacements in a virtual city. The task was presented as a single task (crossing only and as a multitask. In the multitask condition participants were asked, among others, to type in three digit numbers that were presented either visually or auditorily. We found that for both age groups, street crossing as well as typing performance suffered under multitasking conditions. Impairments were especially pronounced for older adults (e.g., longer crossing initiation phase, more missed opportunities. However, younger and older adults did not differ in the speed and success rate of crossing. Further, deficits were stronger in the visual compared to the auditory task modality for most parameters. Our findings conform to earlier studies that found an age-related decline in multitasking performance in less realistic scenarios. However, task similarity effects were inconsistent and question the validity of the multiple

Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J.

2007-01-01

The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO 2 . (author)

Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J. [The University of Melbourne, Victoria (Australia). Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, International Technologies Centre

2007-04-15

The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO{sub 2}. (author)

[Study on strategies of pollution prevention in coastal city of Zhejiang Province based on scenario analysis].

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Jin-Ping; Chen, Lü-Jun; Du, Peng-Fei; Qian, Yi

2013-01-01

Scenario analysis was used to study the environmental burden in a coastal city of Zhejiang province under different patterns of economic development. The aim of this research is to propose advices on decision making by illustrating how to make emissions reduced by transforming the pattern of economic development in a developed coastal area, which had acquired the level of 70 000 yuan GDP per cap. At first, 18 heavy pollution industries were screened out, by referencing total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Then, a model of scenario analysis and the back-up calculation program were designed to study the sustainable development of the heavy pollution industries. With 2008 and 2015 as the reference year and the target year respectively, emissions of four pollutants mentioned above in the 18 heavy pollution industries in the city were analyzed under six scenarios. The total emissions of 4 pollutants should be reduced to an expectant degree, which is set as the constraint prerequisite of the scenario analysis. At last, some suggestions for decision-making are put forward, which include maintaining a moderate increase rate of GDP around 7%, strengthening the adjustment of economic structure, controlling the increasing rate of industrial added value of the industries with heavy pollution, optimizing the structure of industries with heavy pollution, decreasing the intensity of waste emission by implementing cleaner production to reduce emission produce at the source, and strengthening regulations on the operation of waste treatment plants to further promote the efficiency of waste treatment. Only by implementing such measures mentioned above, can the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide of the 18 industries with heavy pollution in the city be reduced by a 10%, 10%, 5%, and 15% respectively based on the reference year.

The negaWatt 2011 scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-03-01

This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

Scenario Analysis on Climate Change Impacts of Urban Land Expansion under Different Urbanization Patterns: A Case Study of Wuhan Metropolitan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinli Ke

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Urban land expansion plays an important role in climate change. It is significant to select a reasonable urban expansion pattern to mitigate the impact of urban land expansion on the regional climate in the rapid urbanization process. In this paper, taking Wuhan metropolitan as the case study area, and three urbanization patterns scenarios are designed to simulate spatial patterns of urban land expansion in the future using the Partitioned and Asynchronous Cellular Automata Model. Then, simulation results of land use are adjusted and inputted into WRF (Weather Research and Forecast model to simulate regional climate change. The results show that: (1 warming effect is strongest under centralized urbanization while it is on the opposite under decentralized scenario; (2 the warming effect is stronger and wider in centralized urbanization scenario than in decentralized urbanization scenario; (3 the impact trends of urban land use expansion on precipitation are basically the same under different scenarios; (4 and spatial distribution of rainfall was more concentrated under centralized urbanization scenario, and there is a rainfall center of wider scope, greater intensity. Accordingly, it can be concluded that decentralized urbanization is a reasonable urbanization pattern to mitigate climate change in rapid urbanization period.

Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

2015-01-01

This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

2014-01-01

In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of “Treatment after Pollution” has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives. PMID:25207492

Simulation and evaluation of pollution load reduction scenarios for water environmental management: a case study of inflow river of Taihu Lake, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

2014-09-09

In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of "Treatment after Pollution" has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives.

Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Landucci, Gabriele; Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Argenti, Francesca; Cozzani, Valerio

2017-01-01

The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect. - Highlights: • A methodology was developed to account for safety barrier performance in escalation prevention. • The methodology allows quantitative assessment accounting for safety barrier performance. • A detailed analysis of transient mitigated scenarios is allowed by the developed procedure. • The procedure allows accounting for safety barrier performance in QRA of domino scenarios. • An important reduction in the risk due to domino scenarios is evidenced when considering safety barriers.

Scenarios for waste management involving innovative systems (ADS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tommasi, J.; Bottollier-Curtet, H.; Massara, S.; Varaine, F.; Delpech, M.

2001-01-01

The global performance of reactor park scenarios based on innovative systems (Accelerator-Driven Systems, ADS) for transmutation is studied, based either on equilibrium recycling states or on high burn-up systems. The results of these first studies are preliminary but allow to assess the main parameters of the fuel cycle (inventories, mass balances, mass flows...), to evaluate the specific contributions of ADS on the main scenario parameters, and to compare subcritical systems to critical ones. (author)

Design scenarios for renovation of sports complex: a case study

Science.gov (United States)

Nižetić, S.

2018-02-01

This paper elaborates design scenarios for a sports complex in Croatia from a technical and economic aspect. Different energy options are analysed and two are additionally addressed and discussed as the most viable ones. The possibilities of sports complex renovation are shown by properly choosing the appropriate energy concept and thus reducing the overall cost for produced thermal energy by around 33% and reducing the carbon dioxide emission by a factor of 1.8 in comparison with its present state. Finally, this study presents an example of good practice, where renewable energy solutions can be proposed and where it is possible to cover around 70-80% of overall yearly costs from achieved energy savings for the novel plant that is assumed to be financed through a bank loan.

Multi-path transportation futures study : vehicle characterization and scenario analyses.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems; TA Engineering; ORNL

2009-12-03

Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance - and uncertainty - of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). This Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of 'what if' questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

Procedural method for the development of scenarios in the post-closure phase. Report on the working package 1. Development of the international status of science and technology concerning methods and tools for operational and long-term safety cases; Vorgehensweise bei der Entwicklung von Szenarien fuer die Nachverschlussphase. Bericht zum Arbeitspaket 1. Weiterentwicklung des internationalen Stands von Wissenschaft und Technik zu Methoden und Werkzeugen fuer Betriebs- und Langzeitsicherheitsnachweise

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beuth, Thomas; Mayer, Kim-Marisa

2016-09-15

The report on the procedural method for the development of scenarios in the post-closure phase covers the following topics: development of scenarios and derivation of calculation cases, approaches for verification of derived scenarios, human penetration in a final repository (including national and international regulations and guidelines and safety standards).

Integration of software for scenario exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Ikeda, Takao

1999-03-01

The scenario exploration methodology using shadow models is a variation of the environmental simulation method. Key aspect of the scenario exploration is the use of shadow models which are not corresponding to any specific assumptions on physical processes and, instead, abstract their general features relevant to the effects on nuclide transport in a general manner so that benefit of using simulation approach can be maximized. In developing the shadow models, all the modelling options that have not yet been denied by the experts are kept and parametrized in a very general framework. This, in turn, enables one to treat various types of the uncertainty in performance assessment, i.e., scenario uncertainty, conceptual model uncertainty, mathematical model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, in a common framework of uncertainty / sensitivity analysis. Objective of the current study is to review / modify the tools which have been developed separately and, thence, not fully consistent from one to the other and to integrate them into a unified methodology and software. Tasks for this are; 1. modification / integration of tools for scenario exploration of nuclide transport in the EBS and the near-field host rock, 2. verification of the software modified and integrated, 3. installation of the software at JNC. (author)

Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

Scenario based tsunami wave height estimation towards hazard evaluation for the Hellenic coastline and examples of extreme inundation zones in South Aegean

Science.gov (United States)

Melis, Nikolaos S.; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Frentzos, Elias; Krassanakis, Vassilios

2016-04-01

A scenario based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment is used, by incorporating earthquake sources with the potential to produce extreme tsunamis (measured through their capacity to cause maximum wave height and inundation extent). In the present study we follow a two phase approach. In the first phase, existing earthquake hazard zoning in the greater Aegean region is used to derive representative maximum expected earthquake magnitude events, with realistic seismotectonic source characteristics, and of greatest tsunamigenic potential within each zone. By stacking the scenario produced maximum wave heights a global maximum map is constructed for the entire Hellenic coastline, corresponding to all expected extreme offshore earthquake sources. Further evaluation of the produced coastline categories based on the maximum expected wave heights emphasizes the tsunami hazard in selected coastal zones with important functions (i.e. touristic crowded zones, industrial zones, airports, power plants etc). Owing to its proximity to the Hellenic Arc, many urban centres and being a popular tourist destination, Crete Island and the South Aegean region are given a top priority to define extreme inundation zoning. In the second phase, a set of four large coastal cities (Kalamata, Chania, Heraklion and Rethymno), important for tsunami hazard, due i.e. to the crowded beaches during the summer season or industrial facilities, are explored towards preparedness and resilience for tsunami hazard in Greece. To simulate tsunamis in the Aegean region (generation, propagation and runup) the MOST - ComMIT NOAA code was used. High resolution DEMs for bathymetry and topography were joined via an interface, specifically developed for the inundation maps in this study and with similar products in mind. For the examples explored in the present study, we used 5m resolution for the topography and 30m resolution for the bathymetry, respectively. Although this study can be considered as

Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoeoek, Mikael

2010-10-01

Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO 2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The fundamental assumptions

Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoeoek, Mikael

2010-10-15

Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The

Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-11-15

In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

2000-01-01

The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

2012-01-01

Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

the CAS scenarios relies primarily on 2000 data, despite the existence of sufficiently complete statistics through to 2005. The DGEMP on the other hand used a study by the BIPE (Office for Economic Information and Forecasting) provided by the SESP, the Ministry for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and Spatial Planning's economic statistics and forecasting department. On the basis of the study's macro-economic projections of the French economy to 2020, the DGEMP was able to re-evaluate the prospects for activity in the industrial and tertiary sectors. In several respects (e.g. supply security, CO 2 emissions, energy efficiency), the baseline scenario proposed here is clearly not a scenario conducive to satisfying French energy policy objectives. This is not a surprising conclusion in that it implies the need to implement new policies and measures in addition to those already in place or approved. In particular, this scenario would lead to importing 66 billion cubic meters of gas (59 Mtoe) in 2020 and 78 billion cubic meters (70 Mtoe) in 2030, compared with the present 44 billion cubic meters. In addition to the resulting CO 2 emissions, the near doubling of gas imports would pose a twofold problem as to the geographic origin of the gas imported (under appropriate supply contracts) and the infrastructure (LNG terminals, gas pipelines) required to transport it. Finally, the baseline scenario is of course a long way from achieving the Community targets, whether for CO 2 emissions, projected to rise continually until 2020 and then even faster until 2030 (due to transport and electric power generation), or for the share of renewable energy in the energy mix. In that regard, the share of renewable energy in 'enlarged' final energy consumption, as it is described in the 'energy and climate change package', would grow to 13.4% in 2020 (versus 23% in the Commission's burden sharing proposal) and to 13.7% in 2030, compared with the 10.3% share observed in 2006

IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2001-01-01

This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

Nearly scale-invariant spectrum of adiabatic fluctuations may be from a very slowly expanding phase of the Universe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piao Yunsong; Zhou, E.

2003-01-01

In this paper we construct an expanding phase with phantom matter, in which the scale factor expands very slowly but the Hubble parameter increases gradually, and assume that this expanding phase could be matched to our late observational cosmology by the proper mechanism. We obtain the nearly scale-invariant spectrum of adiabatic fluctuations in this scenario; different from the simplest inflation and usual ekpyrotic or cyclic scenario, the tilt of the nearly scale-invariant spectrum in this scenario is blue. Although there exists an uncertainty surrounding the way in which the perturbations propagate through the transition in our scenario, which is dependent on the details of possible 'bounce' physics, compared with inflation and the ekpyrotic or cyclic scenario, our work may provide another feasible cosmological scenario generating the nearly scale-invariant perturbation spectrum

The climatic scenario of global warming; Les scenarios climatiques de rechauffement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deque, M

2007-07-01

This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

Scenario group summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorndike, A.

1976-01-01

A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

Scenario group summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorndike, A.

1976-01-01

The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

Power sector scenarios for Thailand: An exploratory analysis 2002-2022

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mulugetta, Yacob; Mantajit, Nathinee; Jackson, Tim

2007-01-01

Power sector scenarios for Thailand are constructed in this paper to represent the range of opportunities and constraints associated with divergent set of technical and policy options. They include Business-As-Usual (BAU), No-New-Coal (NNC), and Green Futures (GF) scenarios over a 20-year period (2002-2022). The results from the BAU scenario show that fossil fuels will continue to dominate electricity generation in Thailand during the study period. Similar results are obtained for the NNC option, although the dependence shifts from coal and oil towards natural gas-based power generation. This may represent a better environmental pathway but an all out shift from coal to natural gas is likely to increase Thailand's dependence on imported fuel, making it more vulnerable to unstable global oil and gas prices. The GF scenario offers a more optimistic route that allows the country to confront its energy security dilemma whilst fulfilling its environmental commitments by giving renewable energy technologies a prominent place in the country's power generation mix. Over the study period, our result showed little difference between the three scenarios in terms of financing new generation plants despite an early misgiving about the viability of an ambitious renewable energy programme. This paper also goes beyond the financial evaluation of each scenario to provide a comparison of the scenarios in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions together with the comparative costs of emissions reductions. Indeed, if such externalities are taken into account to determine 'viability', the GF scenario represents an attractive way forward for the Thai power sector

Complex accident scenarios modelled and analysed by Stochastic Petri Nets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nývlt, Ondřej; Haugen, Stein; Ferkl, Lukáš

2015-01-01

This paper is focused on the usage of Petri nets for an effective modelling and simulation of complicated accident scenarios, where an order of events can vary and some events may occur anywhere in an event chain. These cases are hardly manageable by traditional methods as event trees – e.g. one pivotal event must be often inserted several times into one branch of the tree. Our approach is based on Stochastic Petri Nets with Predicates and Assertions and on an idea, which comes from the area of Programmable Logic Controllers: an accidental scenario is described as a net of interconnected blocks, which represent parts of the scenario. So the scenario is firstly divided into parts, which are then modelled by Petri nets. Every block can be easily interconnected with other blocks by input/output variables to create complex ones. In the presented approach, every event or a part of a scenario is modelled only once, independently on a number of its occurrences in the scenario. The final model is much more transparent then the corresponding event tree. The method is shown in two case studies, where the advanced one contains a dynamic behavior. - Highlights: • Event & Fault trees have problems with scenarios where an order of events can vary. • Paper presents a method for modelling and analysis of dynamic accident scenarios. • The presented method is based on Petri nets. • The proposed method solves mentioned problems of traditional approaches. • The method is shown in two case studies: simple and advanced (with dynamic behavior)

Predictions for the Dirac C P -violating phase from sum rules

Science.gov (United States)

Delgadillo, Luis A.; Everett, Lisa L.; Ramos, Raymundo; Stuart, Alexander J.

2018-05-01

We explore the implications of recent results relating the Dirac C P -violating phase to predicted and measured leptonic mixing angles within a standard set of theoretical scenarios in which charged lepton corrections are responsible for generating a nonzero value of the reactor mixing angle. We employ a full set of leptonic sum rules as required by the unitarity of the lepton mixing matrix, which can be reduced to predictions for the observable mixing angles and the Dirac C P -violating phase in terms of model parameters. These sum rules are investigated within a given set of theoretical scenarios for the neutrino sector diagonalization matrix for several known classes of charged lepton corrections. The results provide explicit maps of the allowed model parameter space within each given scenario and assumed form of charged lepton perturbations.

Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schweizer, Vanessa Jine; Kriegler, Elmar

2012-01-01

Scenarios are key tools in analyses of global environmental change. Often they consist of quantitative and qualitative components, where the qualitative aspects are expressed in narrative, or storyline, form. Fundamental challenges in scenario development and use include identifying a small set of compelling storylines that span a broad range of policy-relevant futures, documenting that the assumptions embodied in the storylines are internally consistent, and ensuring that the selected storylines are sufficiently comprehensive, that is, that descriptions of important kinds of future developments are not left out. The dominant approach to scenario design for environmental change research has been criticized for lacking sufficient means of ensuring that storylines are internally consistent. A consequence of this shortcoming could be an artificial constraint on the range of plausible futures considered. We demonstrate the application of a more systematic technique for the development of storylines called the cross-impact balance (CIB) method. We perform a case study on the scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which are widely used. CIB analysis scores scenarios in terms of internal consistency. It can also construct a very large number of scenarios consisting of combinations of assumptions about individual scenario elements and rank these combinations in terms of internal consistency. Using this method, we find that the four principal storylines employed in the SRES scenarios vary widely in internal consistency. One type of storyline involving highly carbon-intensive development is underrepresented in the SRES scenario set. We conclude that systematic techniques like CIB analysis hold promise for improving scenario development in global change research. (letter)

Starobinsky-type Inflation in Dynamical Supergravity Breaking Scenarios

CERN Document Server

Alexandre, Jean; Mavromatos, Nick E.

2014-01-27

In the context of dynamical breaking of local supersymmetry (supergravity), including the Deser-Zumino super-Higgs effect, for the simple but quite representative cases of N=1, D=4 supergravity, we discuss the emergence of Starobinsky-type inflation, due to quantum corrections in the effective action arising from integrating out gravitino fields in their massive phase. This type of inflation may occur after a first-stage small-field inflation that characterises models near the origin of the one-loop effective potential, and it may occur at the non-trivial minima of the latter. Phenomenologically realistic scenarios, compatible with the Planck data, may be expected for the conformal supergravity variants of the basic model.

Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

2017-01-01

This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-01-01

This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

Development of water use scenarios as a tool for adaptation to climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Jacinto

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The project ADAPTACLIMA, promoted by EPAL, the largest Portuguese Water Supply Utility, aims to provide the company with an adaptation strategy in the medium and long term to reduce the vulnerability of its activities to climate change. We used the four scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2 adopted in the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to produce local scenarios of water use. Available population SRES for Portugal were downscaled to the study area using a linear approach. Local land use scenarios were produced using the following steps: (1 characterization of the present land use for each municipality of the study area using Corine Land Cover and adaptation of the CLC classes to those used in the SRES; (2 identification of recent tendencies in land use change for the study area; (3 identification of SRES tendencies for land use change in Europe; and (4 production of local scenarios of land use. Water use scenarios were derived considering both population and land use scenarios as well as scenarios of change in other parameters (technological developments, increases in efficiency, climate changes, or political and behavioural changes. The A2 scenario forecasts an increase in population (+16% in the study area while the other scenarios show a reduction in the resident population (−6 to 8%. All scenarios, but especially A1, show a reduction in agricultural area and an increase in urban area. Regardless of the scenario, water use will progressively be reduced until 2100. These reductions are mainly due to increased water use efficiency and the reduction of irrigated land. The results accord with several projects modelling water use at regional and global level.

Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruibin Zhang

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of “Treatment after Pollution” has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives.

A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

2015-01-01

A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

Climate scenarios for California

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

A model for the analysis of a normal evolution scenarios for a deep geological granite repository for high-level radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cormenzana Lopez, J.L.; Cunado, M.A.; Lopez, M.T.

1996-01-01

The methodology usually used to evaluate the behaviour of deep geological repositories for high-level radioactive wastes comprises three phases: Identification of factors (processes, characteristics and events) that can affect the repository. Generation of scenarios. In general, a normal evolution scenario (Reference Scenario) and various disruptive scenarios (earthquake, human intrusion, etc) are considered. Evaluation of the behaviour of the repository in each scenario. The normal evolution scenario taking into account all factors with a high probability of occurrence is the first to be analysed. The performance assessment of behaviour being carried out by ENRESA for the AGP Granite has led to the identification of 63 of these factors. To analyse repository behaviour in the normal evolution scenario, it is necessary to first of all create an integrated model of the global system. This is a qualitative model including the 63 factors identified. For a global view of a such a complex system, it is very useful to graphically display the relationship between factors in an Influence Diagram. This paper shows the Influence Diagram used in the analysis of the AGP Granite Reference Scenario. (Author)

Multi-modal Virtual Scenario Enhances Neurofeedback Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Avihay Cohen

2016-08-01

Full Text Available In the past decade neurofeedback has become the focus of a growing body of research. With real-time fMRI enabling on-line monitoring of emotion related areas such as the amygdala, many have begun testing its therapeutic benefits. However most existing neurofeedback procedures still use monotonic uni-modal interfaces, thus possibly limiting user engagement and weakening learning efficiency. The current study tested a novel multi-sensory neurofeedback animated scenario aimed at enhancing user experience and improving learning. We examined whether relative to a simple uni-modal 2D interface, learning via an interface of complex multi-modal 3D scenario will result in improved neurofeedback learning. As a neural-probe, we used the recently developed fMRI-inspired EEG model of amygdala activity (amygdala-EEG finger print; amygdala-EFP, enabling low-cost and mobile limbic neurofeedback training. Amygdala-EFP was reflected in the animated scenario by the unrest level of a hospital waiting-room in which virtual characters become impatient, approach the admission-desk and complain loudly. Successful down-regulation was reflected as an ease in the room unrest-level. We tested whether relative to a standard uni-modal 2D graphic thermometer interface, this animated scenario could facilitate more effective learning and improve the training experience. Thirty participants underwent two separated neurofeedback sessions (one-week apart practicing down-regulation of the amygdala-EFP signal. In the first session, half trained via the animated scenario and half via a thermometer interface. Learning efficiency was tested by three parameters: (a effect-size of the change in amygdala-EFP following training, (b sustainability of the learned down-regulation in the absence of online feedback, and (c transferability to an unfamiliar context. Comparing amygdala-EFP signal amplitude between the last and the first neurofeedback trials revealed that the animated scenario

Feasibility study on commercialization of fast breeder reactor cycle system. Interim report of phase 2. Technical study report on synthetic evaluation for FBR cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shiotani, Hiroki; Ohtaki, Akira; Ono, Kiyoshi; Yasumatsu, Naoto; Kubota, Sadae; Heta, Masanori

2004-09-01

This report presents the outline of the development and the results of Synthetic evaluation on the candidate Fast Reactor (FR) cycle system concepts, scenario study on FR cycle deployment and cost-benefit analysis on the candidate FR cycle system concepts in the interim evaluation (FY2001 through FY2003) of the phase 2 of the Japanese 'Feasibility Study on Commercialization of Fast Reactor Cycle System (FS)'. The characteristic evaluation extended to evaluate a new view point of social acceptance besides the viewpoints of safety, economics, reduction of environmental burden, efficient utilization of uranium resource, proliferation resistance, and technical feasibility, which has been considered since the phase 1 of FS. As for the six view points, hierarchy structures and utility functions for quantitative evaluation have been developed and/or improved. Furthermore, the methodology for weighing the viewpoints, which was also developed, made it possible to examine the characteristics of the candidate concepts from all the seven viewpoints. Generally, the FR cycles with sodium-cooled FR were highly evaluated. The characteristic evaluation for alternative power supply systems was also tried in this report for the first time. FR cycle deployment scenarios clarified the necessity of FR cycle deployment and the desirable core features, etc. through the long-term mass flow analysis, which includes comparison among other nuclear fuel cycle schemes and analysis for evaluating the degree to meet future needs, on the typical FR cycle systems. Regarding cost-benefit analysis, both the amount of the cost estimated by the past R and D and the cost in the Road map of FS are used as the investment for FR cycle research and development (R and D), the results showed that the benefit derived from the commercialization of FR cycle will be more than the investment. (author)

Overview of EMF 22 U.S. transition scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fawcett, Allen A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Chesnaye, Francisco C. de la; Reilly, John M.; Weyant, John P.

2009-01-01

The Energy Modeling Forum 22 study included a set of U.S. transition scenarios designed to bracket a range of potential U.S. climate policy goals. Models from the six teams that participated in this part of the study include models that have been prominently involved in analyzing proposed U.S. climate legislation, as well as models that have been involved in the Climate Change Science Program and other parts of this EMF 22 study. This paper presents an overview of the results from the U.S. transition scenarios, and provides insights into the comparison of results from the participating models. (author)

Scenario development methods and practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

EPHECT I: European household survey on domestic use of consumer products and development of worst-case scenarios for daily use.

Science.gov (United States)

Dimitroulopoulou, C; Lucica, E; Johnson, A; Ashmore, M R; Sakellaris, I; Stranger, M; Goelen, E

2015-12-01

Consumer products are frequently and regularly used in the domestic environment. Realistic estimates for product use are required for exposure modelling and health risk assessment. This paper provides significant data that can be used as input for such modelling studies. A European survey was conducted, within the framework of the DG Sanco-funded EPHECT project, on the household use of 15 consumer products. These products are all-purpose cleaners, kitchen cleaners, floor cleaners, glass and window cleaners, bathroom cleaners, furniture and floor polish products, combustible air fresheners, spray air fresheners, electric air fresheners, passive air fresheners, coating products for leather and textiles, hair styling products, spray deodorants and perfumes. The analysis of the results from the household survey (1st phase) focused on identifying consumer behaviour patterns (selection criteria, frequency of use, quantities, period of use and ventilation conditions during product use). This can provide valuable input to modelling studies, as this information is not reported in the open literature. The above results were further analysed (2nd phase), to provide the basis for the development of 'most representative worst-case scenarios' regarding the use of the 15 products by home-based population groups (housekeepers and retired people), in four geographical regions in Europe. These scenarios will be used for the exposure and health risk assessment within the EPHECT project. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that daily worst-case scenarios are presented in the scientific published literature concerning the use of a wide range of 15 consumer products across Europe. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

TRANSPORTATION BOT SCHEMES FOR PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR FINANCING SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chien-Hung WEI

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Transportation Build-Operate-Transfer financing projects have larger payment risks and failure possibilities than other financing projects, and these factors are essential to financing scenarios. The changes of financing scenarios not only affect private sectors' financing process but the conflict between private sectors and banks. This study broadly reviews relevant factors affecting BOT financing strategies, interviews relevant experts and then uses scenario analysis to design a questionnaire to find out the most important factors affecting BOT financing. The findings of this study are four major factors affecting public and private financing scenarios. In this paper, we also propose some suggestions as possible complements to public and private sector financing strategies.

The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W

1998-03-01

Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10{sup 4} years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)

The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W.

1998-03-01

Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10 4 years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

2017-01-01

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Selin, Cynthia Lea

2006-01-01

formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook

2014-01-01

Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability

Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-08-15

Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability.

Scenario-based table top simulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

2012-01-01

This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...

Study on assessment scenarios of natural phenomena effected on groundwater flow system. Case study for the sea-level change (Contract research)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sakai, Ryutaro; Munakata, Masahiro; Kimura, Hideo

2009-03-01

It is important to evaluate effects on the groundwater flow system by the natural phenomena in the safety assessment of geological disposal of radioactive waste. Safety assessment is performed by using safety assessment methods, thus it is necessary to establish reasonable scenarios for safety assessment. In this report, we study change effecting on the groundwater flow system by literature reviews. The scenario of sea level change is expected to have a importance for a safety of disposal facility in coastal area. The recent information related to the groundwater flow condition in sedimentary rocks of sub-seabed coastal area shows that there are four groundwater domains as follows with depth; (1) modern meteoric water, (2) saline water in the transgression period, (3) paleo-fresh water which formed during the last glacial age when sea levels were lower than at present and (4) pre-glacial fossil saline water. This study suggests that the non-current (3) paleo-fresh water at present is possible to move to discharged area at sea floor in the next glacial period by denudation of marine-clay sediments and to become stagnant water again in the next interglacial period by deposition of marine-clay sediments in coastal region. Therefore it is important to predict the scenario considering the denudation and deposition correlated with transgression and regression that could affect the change of groundwater flow velocity, groundwater flow path and groundwater chemical characteristics during the glacial and interglacial period. (author)

Geoprospective: from the acquired data, to the scenarios; Geoprospective: des donnees acquises, aux scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Escalier des Orres, P [CEA Centre d` Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France). Dept. d` Evaluation de Surete; Blanc, P L [CEA Centre d` Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France). Dept. de Protection de l` Environnement et des Installations

1994-06-01

The present paper discusses the relationships between the French regulatory safety rule for radwaste deep disposal (RFS no. III.2.f), the geological (external geodynamics) data available when the rule was discussed, and the present geoprospective studies and scenarios to be taken into account in the safety assessment of an underground disposal site. (authors). 11 refs., 3 figs.

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

2017-01-01

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario for France at the 2020 vista; Un scenario energetique tendanciel pour la France a l'horizon 2020

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Giraud, P.N

2000-01-01

A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario is the most probable scenario where the energy demand follows the trends of the past and where no new energy policy is implemented. This work is a complement to the three contrasted energy scenarios built in 1998 by the 'Energy 2010-2020' prospective group of the French general commission of national development. The scenario built in this study is only a reference which allows the measure the efforts made to reach political goals. The main conclusion of this scenario is the increase of the CO{sub 2} emissions under the double effect of the economic growth and of the cessation of the nuclear program which becomes non-competitive with respect to the gas prices and actualization rates retained in the scenario. The main constraint of the energy future is incontestably the necessary fight against the greenhouse effect. (J.S.)

TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Snellman, Margit; Ikonen, Ari; Smith, Paul

2014-01-01

TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

Review of Fire-Induced Multiple Spurious Operation Scenarios for a Pilot Plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Kwang Hong; Lee, Jai Ho; Lee, Do Hwan [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

It was preliminarily reviewed that 41 scenarios of 63 scenarios of NEI's generic list could be applicable to design of SKN3. And 22 scenario of NEI's generic list were evaluated not applicable to SKN3. During the review of the scenario contained in NEI 00-01, no additional MSO scenarios specific to SKN3 were identified. For the further study, the final review will be determined and then detailed circuit analysis will be performed by fire zone and area based on the exact location contained the cable and raceway. With the enhancement of fire safety regulation requirements in nuclear power industry, multiple spurious operation (MSO) identification and treatments should be included in post fire safe shutdown analysis (PFSSA). In this study, the MSO scenario reviews are performed for Shin Kori Unit 3(SKN3) which is the first nuclear power plant of the Advanced Power Reactor 1400 constructed in Korea.

Study of phase separation and crystallization phenomena in soda-lime borosilicate glass enriched in MoO3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Magnin, M.

2009-09-01

Molybdenum oxide immobilization (MoO 3 , as fission product) is one of the major challenges in the nuclear glass formulation issues for high level waste solutions conditioning since many years, these solutions arising from spent nuclear fuel reprocessing. Phase separation and crystallisation processes may arise in molten glass when the MoO 3 content is higher than its solubility limit that may depend on glass composition. Molybdenum combined with other elements such as alkali and alkaline-earth may form crystalline molybdates, known as 'yellow phases' in nuclear glasses which may decrease the glass durability. In order to confine high level wastes (HLW) such as the fission product solutions arising from the reprocessing of high burn-up UOX-type nuclear spent fuels, a new glass composition (HLW glass) is being optimized. This work is devoted to the study of the origin and the mechanism of phase separation and crystallization phenomena induced by molybdenum oxide incorporation in the HLW glass. From microstructural and structural point of view, the molybdenum oxide behavior was studied in glass compositions belonging to the SiO 2 -B 2 O 3 - Na 2 O-CaO simplified system which constituted basis for the HLW glass formulation. The structural role of molybdenum oxide in borosilicate network explaining the phase separation and crystallization tendency was studied through the coupling of structural ( 95 Mo, 29 Si, 11 B, 23 Na MAS NMR, XRD) and microstructural (SEM, HRTEM) analysis techniques. The determination of phase separation (critical temperature) and crystallization (liquidus temperature) appearance temperatures by in situ viscosimetry and Raman spectroscopy experiments allowed us to propose a transformation scenario during melt cooling. These processes and the nature of the crystalline phases formed (CaMoO 4 , Na 2 MoO 4 ) that depend on the evolution of MoO 3 , CaO and B 2 O 3 contents were correlated with changes of sodium and calcium cations proportions in the

Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buchholtz, Mikael

2005-01-01

The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

From Seismic Scenarios to Earthquake Risk Assessment: A Case Study for Iquique, Chile.

Science.gov (United States)

Aguirre, P.; Fortuno, C.; Martin, J. C. D. L. L.; Vasquez, J.

2015-12-01

Iquique is a strategic city and economic center in northern Chile, and is located in a large seismic gap where a megathrust earthquake and tsunami is expected. Although it was hit by a Mw 8.2 earthquake on April 1st 2014, which caused moderate damage, geophysical evidence still suggests that there is potential for a larger event, so a thorough risk assessment is key to understand the physical, social, and economic effects of such potential event, and devise appropriate mitigation plans. Hence, Iquique has been selected as a prime study case for the implementation of a risk assessment platform in Chile. Our study integrates research on three main elements of risk calculations: hazard evaluation, exposure model, and physical vulnerabilities. To characterize the hazard field, a set of synthetic seismic scenarios have been developed based on plate interlocking and the residual slip potential that results from subtracting the slip occurred during the April 1st 2014 rupture fault mechanism, obtained using InSAR+GPS inversion. Additional scenarios were developed based of the fault rupture model of the Maule 2010 Mw 8.8 earthquake and on the local plate locking models in northern Chile. These rupture models define a collection of possible realizations of earthquake geometries parameterized in terms of critical variables like slip magnitude, rise time, mean propagation velocity, directivity, and other, which are propagated to obtain a hazard map for Iquique (e.g. PGA, PGV, PDG). Furthermore, a large body of public and local data was used to construct a detailed exposure model for Iquique, including aggregated building count, demographics, essential facilities, and lifelines. This model together with the PGA maps for the April 1st 2014 earthquake are used to calibrate HAZUS outputs against observed damage, and adjust the fragility curves of physical systems according to more detailed analyses of typical Chilean building types and their structural properties, plus historical

Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Z.

1992-01-01

Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen R. Carpenter

2006-06-01

Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

Macro-economic and energy scenarios for Japan through the long-term

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankin, Shuichi

1986-03-01

As one of studies and systems analyses on the role of VHTR and process heat utilization in future energy systems, long-term macro economic and energy scenarios of Japan until the year 2030 have been generated. This paper presents,; 1) the outline of the long-term macro econometric model and the energy system dynamics model by which these scenarios were generated, 2) back grounds and prospects on future societies of Japan and exogeneous assumptions for calculations, and 3) macro energy and economic scenarios generated. Reflecting the present economic prospects, these scenarios are seemed to be of extremely low-growth type, however, the role of VHTR and its energy systems could be prospected clealy to play a large and important role within these scenario regions. Basic philosophies of scenario generations are also mentioned in this paper. (author)

Regional climate scenarios for use in Nordic water resources studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rummukainen, Markku; Räisänen, J.; Bjørge, D.

2003-01-01

in the Nordic region than in the global mean, regional increases and decreases in net precipitation, longer growing season, shorter snow season etc. These in turn affect runoff, snowpack, groundwater, soil frost and moisture, and thus hydropower production potential, flooding risks etc. Regional climate models......-users of water resources scenarios are the hydropower industry, dam safety instances and planners of other lasting infrastructure exposed to precipitation, river flows and flooding....

Communication products for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario: Chapter K in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Suzanne C.

2013-01-01

Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR), like its predecessor the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, has a mission to increase the use of science by decision-makers of all kinds. Thus, an important part of any SAFRR scenario is development of products that enhance usability of the science. In this tsunami scenario, the focus has been on development of three kinds of products: products that augment typical outputs of scientific studies, such as reports, to make the results of the scenario more relevant and usable to nonscientists; products that distill local impacts and allow users in specific locales to identify which aspects of the broad regional study apply to their local area; and

Phase transitions in nuclear matter and consequences for neutron stars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaempfer, B.

1983-04-01

Estimates of the minimal bombarding energy necessary to reach the quark gluon phase in heavy ion collisions are presented within a hydrodynamical scenario. Further, the consequences of first-order phase transitions from nuclear/neutron matter to pion-condensed matter or quark matter are discussed for neutron stars. (author)

Exploring Persona-Scenarios - Using Storytelling to Create Design Ideas

Science.gov (United States)

Madsen, Sabine; Nielsen, Lene

This paper explores the persona-scenario method by investigating how the method can support project participants in generating shared understandings and design ideas. As persona-scenarios are stories we draw on narrative theory to define what a persona-scenario is and which narrative elements it should consist of. Based on an empirical study a key finding is that despite our inherent human ability to construct, tell, and interpret stories it is not easy to write and present a good, coherent, and design-oriented story without methodical support. The paper therefore contributes with guidelines that delineate a) what a design-oriented persona-scenario should consist of (product) and b) how to write it (procedure) in order to generate and validate as many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas as possible (purpose). The purpose of the guidelines is to facilitate the construction of persona-scenarios as good, coherent stories, which make sense to the storytellers and to the audience - and which therefore generate many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas.

Consequences of changed nuclear power plant lifetimes in Germany. Scenario analyses until 2035; Auswirkungen veraenderter Laufzeiten fuer Kernkraftwerke in Deutschland. Szenarioanalysen bis zum Jahre 2035

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blesl, Markus; Bruchof, David; Fahl, Ulrich; Kober, Tom; Kuder, Ralf; Beestermoeller, Robert; Goetz, Birgit; Voss, Alfred

2011-06-01

The report is aimed to discuss the implications of changed NPP lifetimes in Germany on energy policy, environment, energy cost and macroeconomics. An extensive scenario analysis is used considering the effects on the German energy system in the frame of the European context. It is shown that a nuclear phase-out until 2017 is technically feasible, but needs adequate replacement options that will change the German energy system in the medium term. The study shows that the time of nuclear phase-out has no significant influence on the use of renewable energies.

Mass spectrum in SQCD and problems with the Seiberg duality. Another scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chernyak, V. L.

2012-01-01

The N = 1 SQCD with SU(N c ) colors and N F flavors of light quarks is considered within the dynamical scenario that assumes that quarks can be in the two different phases only: the heavy-quark phase, where they are confined, and the phase of higgsed quarks, at the appropriate values of the Lagrangian parameters. The mass spectra of this (direct) theory and its Seiberg dual are obtained and compared for quarks of small equal or unequal masses. It is shown that in those regions of the parameter space where an additional small parameter exists (it is bar b 0 /N F = (3N c - N F )/N F 0 /N F = (2N F − 3N c )/N F ≪ 1 for the dual theory at the left end of the conformal window), the mass spectra of the direct and dual theories are parametrically different. A number of other regimes are also considered.

Heat and fluid flow in accident of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, Unit 2. Accident scenario based on thermodynamic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maruyama, Shigenao

2012-01-01

An accident scenario of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, Unit 2 is analyzed from the data open to the public. Phase equilibrium process model was introduced that the vapor and water are at saturation point in the vessels. Proposed accident scenario agrees very well with the data of the plant parameters obtained just after the accident. The estimation describes that the rupture time of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) was at 22:50 14/3/2011. The estimation shows that the rupture time of the pressure containment vessel (RCP) was at 7:40 15/3/2011. These estimations are different from the ones by TEPCO, however; many measured evidences show good accordance with the present scenario. (author)

Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

Science.gov (United States)

Anandhi, A.; Omani, N.; Chaubey, I.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Nanjundiah, R. S.

2017-01-01

Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for

Mechanism of Pseudogap Detected by Electronic Raman Scattering: Phase Fluctuation or Hidden Order?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong-Yan, Lu; Yuan, Wan; Xiang-Mei, He; Qiang-Hua, Wang

2009-01-01

We study the electronic Raman scattering in the cuprates to distinguish the two possible scenarios of the pseudo-gap normal state. In one scenario, the pseudogap is assumed to be caused by phase fluctuations of the preformed Cooper pairs. We find that pair-breaking peaks appear in both the B 1g and B 2g Raman channels, and they are smeared and tend to shift to the same energy with the increasing strength of phase fluctuations. Thus both channels reflect the same pairing energy scale, irrespectively of the doping level. In another scenario, the pseudogap is assumed to be caused by a hidden order that competes with the superconducting order. As an example, we assume that the hidden order is the d-density-wave (DDW) order. We find analytically and numerically that in the DDW normal state there is no Raman peak in the B 2g channel in a tight-binding model up to the second nearest-neighbor hopping, while the Raman peak in the B 1g channel reflects the energy gap caused by the DDW order. This behavior is in agreement with experiments in the pseudogap normal state. To gain further insights, we also calculate the Raman spectra in the DDW+SC state. We study the doping and temperature dependence of the peak energy in both channels and find a two-gap behavior, which is in agreement with recent Raman experiments. Therefore, our results shed light on the hidden order scenario for the pseudogap

Quantum phases of low-dimensional ultra-cold atom systems

Science.gov (United States)

Mathey, Ludwig G.

2007-06-01

In this thesis we derive and explore the quantum phases of various types of ultracold atom systems, as well as their experimental signature. The technology of cooling, trapping and manipulating ultracold atoms has advanced in an amazing fashion during the last decade, which has led to the study of many-body effects of atomic ensembles. We first consider atomic mixtures in one dimension, which show a rich structure of phases, using a Luttinger liquid description. We then go on to consider how noise correlations in time-of-flight images of one-dimensional systems can be used to draw conclusions about the many-body state that they're in. Thirdly, we consider the quantum phases of Bose-Fermi mixtures in optical lattices, either square lattices or triangular lattices, using the powerful method of functional renormalization group analysis. Lastly, we study the phases of two-coupled quasi-superfluids in two dimensions, which shows unusual phases, and which could be used to realize the Kibble-Zurek mechanism, i.e. the generation of topological defects by ramping across a phase transition, first proposed in the context of an early universe scenario.

TRANSPORTATION BOT SCHEMES FOR PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR FINANCING SCENARIO ANALYSIS

OpenAIRE

WEI, Chien-Hung; CHUNG, Ming-Chih

2002-01-01

Transportation Build-Operate-Transfer financing projects have larger payment risks and failure possibilities than other financing projects, and these factors are essential to financing scenarios. The changes of financing scenarios not only affect private sectors' financing process but the conflict between private sectors and banks. This study broadly reviews relevant factors affecting BOT financing strategies, interviews relevant experts and then uses scenario analysis to design a questionnai...

STUDY OF TCP PHASE PRECIPITATING IN GH4199 SUPERALLOY

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

T．Cui; Y．S．Zhang; S．W．Guo; L．Wang; H．C．Yang

2004-01-01

The precipitating regulation and mechanism of TCP phase (μ phase and σ phase) are studied, using electron hole number (EHN) theory, phase analysis technology and TEM observation. The results indicate that the EHN in studied alloy is 2.311-2.348 which is higher than that of critical EHN of μ phase precipitate (2.30), so μ phase could precipitate if there is enough thermo-exposition. In contrast, the calculated EHN is less than that of critical EHN of σ phase precipitate (2.52). However the σ phase is also observed by TEM.Enrich of Cr and Mo around γ phase after γ' phase precipitated leads to σ phase precipitated.

Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parson, E A

2008-01-01

Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

Advanced scenarios for ITER operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sips, A.C.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany)

2004-07-01

In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produce and study plasmas dominated by self heating. This would give unique opportunities to explore, in reactor relevant conditions, the physics of {alpha}-particle heating, plasma turbulence and turbulent transport, stability limits to the plasma pressure and exhaust of power and particles. Important new results obtained in experiments, theory and modelling, enable an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring in tokamak plasmas and give enhanced confidence in ITER achieving its goals. In particular, progress has been made in research to raise the performance of tokamaks, aimed to extend the discharge pulse length towards steady-state operation (advanced scenarios). Standard tokamak discharges have a current density increasing monotonically towards the centre of the plasma. Advanced scenarios on the other hand use a modified current density profile. Different advanced scenarios range from (i) plasmas that sustain a central region with a flat current density profile (zero magnetic shear), capable of operating stationary at high plasma pressure, to (ii) discharges with an off axis maximum of the current density profile (reversed magnetic shear in the core), able to form internal transport barriers, to increase the confinement of the plasma. The physics of advanced tokamak discharges is described, together with an overview of recent results from different tokamak experiments. International collaboration between experiments aims to provide a better understanding, control and optimisation of these plasmas. The ability to explore advanced scenarios in ITER is very desirable, in order to verify the result obtained in

Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

2012-01-01

scenarios, we excluded hobby-type farms1 In the vaccination scenarios, herds within the vaccination zone were simulated to be vaccinated 14 days after detection of the first herd or when 10, 20, 30 or 50 herds were infected. All herds within the zones were simulated to be vaccinated. We used vaccination...... zones of either a 1, 2, 3 or 5 km. In some scenarios, hobby herds were not vaccinated. In one scenario, no sheep were vaccinated, and in another scenario no swine were vaccinated. from depopulation in zones. The resources for depopulation were estimated to 4,800 swine and 2,000 ruminants a day...

FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serhiy Nozhenko

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

Using Geo-Data Corporately on the Response Phase of Emergency Management

Science.gov (United States)

Demir Ozbek, E.; Ates, S.; Aydinoglu, A. C.

2015-08-01

Response phase of emergency management is the most complex phase in the entire cycle because it requires cooperation between various actors relating to emergency sectors. A variety of geo-data is needed at the emergency response such as; existing data provided by different institutions and dynamic data collected by different sectors at the time of the disaster. Disaster event is managed according to elaborately defined activity-actor-task-geodata cycle. In this concept, every activity of emergency response is determined with Standard Operation Procedure that enables users to understand their tasks and required data in any activity. In this study, a general conceptual approach for disaster and emergency management system is developed based on the regulations to serve applications in Istanbul Governorship Provincial Disaster and Emergency Directorate. The approach is implemented to industrial facility explosion example. In preparation phase, optimum ambulance locations are determined according to general response time of the ambulance to all injury cases in addition to areas that have industrial fire risk. Management of the industrial fire case is organized according to defined actors, activities, and working cycle that describe required geo-data. A response scenario was prepared and performed for an industrial facility explosion event to exercise effective working cycle of actors. This scenario provides using geo-data corporately between different actors while required data for each task is defined to manage the industrial facility explosion event. Following developing web technologies, this scenario based approach can be effective to use geo-data on the web corporately.

Comparative analysis of greenhouse gas emissions between scenarios - Contribution of the Experts Group - National Debate on Energy Transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomon, Thierry

2013-01-01

Within the frame of the French national debate on energy transition, this document briefly presents and comments calculations of greenhouse gas emissions according to 11 scenarios associated with 4 pathways: electrification and de-carbonation (NegaTEP), steady demand and diversification (Ancre DIV), efficiency and diversification (Ademe), and energy saving and phasing out nuclear (Negawatt). These pathways and scenarios are analysed in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and with respect to the objective of a factor-4 reduction by 2050. Emission data for 1990 and 2011 are recalled, as well as France commitments. The author outlines that only four scenarios reach this factor-4 objective as far as CO 2 combustion is concerned, that a factor 2 seems to be possible for some specific sectors (agriculture and wastes). He notices significant decreases in industrial processes since 1990, that only 2 scenarios and 2 pathways reach the factor-4 as far as all greenhouse gases are concerned. When taking energy demand into account, no scenario is able to reach the factor-4 without any strong policy of energy saving. Two conditions are therefore identified to reach this factor: a significant decrease of energy demand, and an action on all emission sources

Designing Sustainable Production and Distribution Scenarios for the Beef and Pork Supply Chains in Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giulia Dondè

2016-08-01

The core improvements that can be extracted from the scenarios are: increased chain collaboration, information sharing in the chain, and governmental involvement in the Brazilian beef and pork supply chains. A major value of the paper lays in the three-phase methodology set-up. This paper will also contribute to the debate on sustainable improvements feasible in these Brazilian food chains.

Climate impacts and adaptation in Germany. Phase 1. Regional climate scenarios for Germany. Final report; Klimaauswirkungen und Anpassung in Deutschland. Phase 1. Erstellung regionaler Klimaszenarien fuer Deutschland. Abschlussbericht

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jacob, Daniela; Goettel, Holger; Kotlarski, Sven; Lorenz, Philip; Sieck, Kevin [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie (MPI-M), Hamburg (Germany)

2008-08-15

The regional climate scenarios were evaluated using the climate model REMO. The model calculations were actualized and compared with observed data. The validation of the modeling results was performed using data sets concerning the temporal behavior, the precipitation amounts in several altitudes and the analysis of the probability density function of the air temperature. The results of different climate scenarios are discussed for the mean monthly values of precipitation and temperature. The model allows the prediction of the temporal development and number of summer days and extremely hot days. The change of further indices due to the climatic change caused by increasing greenhouse gas emissions is discussed.

A study on the safety of spent fuel management. A scenario study on spent fuel management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chun, Kwan Sik; Park, Hyun Soo; Ahn, Jin Soo; Hwang, Joo Ho; Choi, Jong Won; Kim, Yeon Soo; Park, Ju Hwan; Chung, Choong Hwan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Inst., Daeduk (Korea, Republic of)

1992-03-01

In order to produce data applicable for the long-term policy making of spent fuel management and to suggest a basic scenario suitable to domestic situation, the pre-conceptual design of reference disposal facilities for the spent fuel and the vitrified high level radioactive waste from its reprocessing, has been performed. From the results of the pre-conceptual study, further research and development areas to accumulate the disposal technology are suggested. In addition, the physico-chemical properties and functional characteristics of domestic bentonite are analyzed to assess its applicability as a buffer material which would play a major role for the safe disposal of highly active waste including spent fuels. (Author).

Scenarios of socio-economic and energy development of the country up to 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsvetanov, P.

1990-01-01

The scenarios description is given as the first stage of a procedure of an energy-economy interrelations dynamics study, the other two stages being the formulation and the analysis of the development variants. The scenarios reflect quantitatively the policies and the international conditions for the socio-economic, energy demand and energy supply developments of the country. Two economic development scenarios ('high' - official macroeconomic views and 'low' - economic restructuring and decrease of energy intensity) hierarchically preside over the two corresponding energy demand scenarios of different technological evolutions ('traditional' and 'energy efficiency' oriented one) in the industry, the transport and the domestic and services sectors. Four energy supply system scenarios follow, corresponding to different approaches in the development of the energy conversion technologies and energy carriers, thus constituting a scenario tree of the studies. 16 refs., 2 figs., 7 tab., 1 ann. (R.Ts.)

Fall scenarios In causing older women's hip fractures.

Science.gov (United States)

Hägvide, Mona-Lisa; Larsson, Tore J; Borell, Lena

2013-01-01

Falls and fall-related injuries among older women constitute a major public health problem with huge costs for the society and personal suffering. The aim of this study was to describe and illustrate how a number of circumstances, conceptualized as a scenario, that were related to the individual, the environment, and the ongoing occupation contributed to a fall that led to a hip fracture among women. The sample included 48 women over 55 years old. Interviews were conducted during home visits and the analysis provided a descriptive picture of circumstances in the shape of a scenario related to the risk of falling. A number of scenarios were developed based on the data and named to provide an understanding of the interplay between the individual, the environment, and the ongoing occupation at the time of the fall. By applying the concept of a scenario, occupational therapists can increase the awareness of fall risks among older people, and are relevant also for interior designers, architects, and town planners to consider when designing the local environment as well as furniture and other objects.

Study of nuclear energy systems and double strata scenarios for minor actinides transmutation in ADS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clavel, J.B.

2012-01-01

The French law of 28 June 2006 regarding advanced nuclear waste management requires a scientific assessment to define future industrial strategies. The present PhD thesis was carried in this framework and concerns specifically the research axis of minor actinides transmutation. A high power Accelerator Driven System (ADS) concept is developed at SUBATECH for this purpose. A 1 GeV proton beam feeds three liquid lead-bismuth spallation targets. The Multiple Spallation Target (MUST) ADS reaches the thermal powers up to 1 GW with a high specific power. A nuclear reactor dimensioning method has been developed and applied to different double strata scenarios. In these scenarios, SFR (Sodium Fast Reactors) or PWR (Pressurized Water Reactors) power reactors produce minor actinides that will be transmuted into ADS. In each core (SFR and ADS), the plutonium multi-reprocessing strategy is performed while ADS subcritical core also multi-reprocesses minor actinides. To limit the core reactivity and improve the fuel thermal conductivity, the minor actinides fuel is mixed with MgO inert matrix. Nuclear branches with lead and sodium coolants for the ADS, have been studied for different irradiation times and two transmutation strategies have been assessed: whether whole minor actinides, whether americium only is transmuted. The thesis presents precisely the MUST ADS design methodology and the calculations to get a fuel composition at equilibrium. Then a one cycle evolution is performed and analysed for the fuel and the multiplication factor. Radiotoxicity and thermal power of the waste produced are then compared. Finally, the study of double strata scenarios is performed to analyse the plutonium and minor actinides inventories in cycle and also the waste produced according to the transmutation strategies applied and the first stratum evolution. (author)

Creating pedestrian crash scenarios in a driving simulator environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Chrysler, Susan T; Ahmad, Omar; Schwarz, Chris W

2015-01-01

In 2012 in the United States, pedestrian injuries accounted for 3.3% of all traffic injuries but, disproportionately, pedestrian fatalities accounted for roughly 14% of traffic-related deaths (NHTSA 2014 ). In many other countries, pedestrians make up more than 50% of those injured and killed in crashes. This research project examined driver response to crash-imminent situations involving pedestrians in a high-fidelity, full-motion driving simulator. This article presents a scenario development method and discusses experimental design and control issues in conducting pedestrian crash research in a simulation environment. Driving simulators offer a safe environment in which to test driver response and offer the advantage of having virtual pedestrian models that move realistically, unlike test track studies, which by nature must use pedestrian dummies on some moving track. An analysis of pedestrian crash trajectories, speeds, roadside features, and pedestrian behavior was used to create 18 unique crash scenarios representative of the most frequent and most costly crash types. For the study reported here, we only considered scenarios where the car is traveling straight because these represent the majority of fatalities. We manipulated driver expectation of a pedestrian both by presenting intersection and mid-block crossing as well as by using features in the scene to direct the driver's visual attention toward or away from the crossing pedestrian. Three visual environments for the scenarios were used to provide a variety of roadside environments and speed: a 20-30 mph residential area, a 55 mph rural undivided highway, and a 40 mph urban area. Many variables of crash situations were considered in selecting and developing the scenarios, including vehicle and pedestrian movements; roadway and roadside features; environmental conditions; and characteristics of the pedestrian, driver, and vehicle. The driving simulator scenarios were subjected to iterative testing to

Creative Classrooms through Game-Based Role-Play Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gjedde, Lisa

2014-01-01

studies a framework that anchors the curriculum in game-based role-play scenarios and offers affordances for the learners to immerse themselves in the multiple perspectives of the roles. In this way of introducing problem based learning in immersive narrative environments, the learners are provided......-based role-play scenarios as a learning tool that can integrate the curriculum in meaningful context, and how it has impacted on the interaction and creative learning experiences in the class....

Multi-region optimal deployment of renewable energy considering different interregional transmission scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Ge; Zhang, Qi; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Li, Hailong

2016-01-01

Renewable energy is expected to play much more important role in future low-carbon energy system, however, renewable energy has problems with regard to load-following and regional imbalance. This study aims to plan the deployment of intermittent renewable energy in multiple regions considering the impacts of regional natural conditions and generation capacity mix as well as interregional transmission capacity using a multi-region dynamic optimization model. The model was developed to find optimized development paths toward future smart electricity systems with high level penetration of intermittent renewable energy considering regional differences and interregional transmission at national scale. As a case study, the model was applied to plan power generation in nine interconnected regions in Japan out to 2030. Four scenarios were proposed with different supporting policies for the interregional power transmission infrastructures and different nuclear power phase-out scenarios. The analysis results show that (i) the government's support for power transmission infrastructures is vital important to develop more intermittent renewable energy in appropriate regions and utilize renewable energy more efficiently; (ii) nuclear and renewable can complement rather than replace each other if enough interregional transmission capacity is provided. - Highlights: • Plan the optimal deployment of intermittent renewable energy in multiple regions. • A multi-region dynamic optimization model was developed. • The impacts of natural conditions and interregional transmission are studied. • The government's support for transmission is vital important for renewable energy. • Nuclear and renewable can complement rather than replace each other.

Scenarios for power production with biomass in the Finnish forest industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nousiainen, I.K.; Malinen, H.O.; Villa, A.O.

1997-01-01

This study presents three scenarios for power production with biomass in Finnish pulp and paper mills. The basic scenario assumes that the production capacity in the forest industry increases as in the past. The green energy scenario assumes that there is a strong demand from the market for sustainable green energy production. The maximum scenario assumes that the production capacity of chemical pulp increases significantly and the use of wood raw material extends to the maximum level. According to the basic scenario the use of biofuels in the pulp and paper mills will increase from starting level, 3.24 Mtoe in 1992, to 5.07 Mtoe by the year 2010. The utilization potential of biofuels will increase to 5.45 Mtoe in green energy and to 6.43 Mtoe in the maximum biofuels scenario. The power production with biomass will increase from the starting level, 572 MW in 1992, to 930 MW in the basic, to 1 100 MW in the green energy and to 1 670 MW in the maximum biofuels scenario by the year 2010. (author)

The cosmic QCD phase transition with dense matter and its gravitational waves from holography

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmadvand, M.; Bitaghsir Fadafan, K.

2018-04-01

Consistent with cosmological constraints, there are scenarios with the large lepton asymmetry which can lead to the finite baryochemical potential at the cosmic QCD phase transition scale. In this paper, we investigate this possibility in the holographic models. Using the holographic renormalization method, we find the first order Hawking-Page phase transition, between the Reissner-Nordström AdS black hole and thermal charged AdS space, corresponding to the de/confinement phase transition. We obtain the gravitational wave spectra generated during the evolution of bubbles for a range of the bubble wall velocity and examine the reliability of the scenarios and consequent calculations by gravitational wave experiments.

Weather scenarios for dose calculations with incomplete meteorological data. V.I.(rev.1)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alp, E.; Lam, L.H.; Moran, M.D.

1985-09-01

This report documents a study to substantiate or modify the weather scenarios proposed by the Atomic Energy Control Board Staff Position Paper on meteorological acceptance criteria for estimating the potential radiological consequences of postulated accidents (AECB, 1982) for short-, prolonged-, and long-term releases from ground level and elevated sources. The study examined available meteorological data in Canada to determine whether the AECB-proposed scenarios are sufficiently general that they are appropriate and conservative for any potential nuclear power plant in Canada, but also realistic, i.e., not so conservative that the results of dose calculations using these scenarios would be wholly unrepresentative leading to incorrect design decisions. Three different sets of scenarios were derived using three site-specific data sets from weather stations that are representative of existing nuclear power plants in Canada. When compared, the scenarios for the three sites are not significantly different from each other, especially in terms of trends, considering that they have been based on data from widely differing meteorological regions in Canada. Conservative envelopes of the scenarios for the three sites were taken to give the recommended general weather scenario set. The recommended set was then compared with the AECB proposed scenarios. The recommended scenarios are, in general, conservative

An Examination of Police Officers' Perceptions of Effective School Responses to Active Shooter Scenarios: A Phenomenological Narrative Study

Science.gov (United States)

Adkins, Florence E.

2015-01-01

This qualitative phenomenological research study used narrative inquiry to examine police officer perceptions of effective school responses to active shooting scenarios. Creswell's (2013) six step process for analyzing and interpreting qualitative data was used to examine the interview information. The study results support the idea that changes…

Exhaustive Study of Cosmic Microwave Background Anisotropies in Quintessential Scenarios

CERN Document Server

Brax, P; Riazuelo, A; Brax, Philippe; Martin, Jerome; Riazuelo, Alain

2000-01-01

Recent high precision measurements of the CMB anisotropies performed by the BOOMERanG and MAXIMA-1 experiments provide an unmatched set of data allowing to probe different cosmological models. Among these scenarios, motivated by the recent measurements of the luminosity distance versus redshift relation for type Ia supernovae, is the quintessence hypothesis. It consists in assuming that the acceleration of the Universe is due to a scalar field whose final evolution is insensitive to the initial conditions. Within this framework we investigate the cosmological perturbations for two well-motivated potentials: the Ratra-Peebles and the SUGRA tracking potentials. We show that the solutions of the perturbed equations possess an attractor and that, as a consequence, the insensitivity to the initial conditions is preserved at the perturbed level. Then, we study the predictions of these two models for structure formation and CMB anisotropies and investigate the general features of the multipole moments in the presenc...

CLASS: Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mouginot, B.; Thiolliere, N.

2015-01-01

The nuclear reactor simulation community has to perform complex electronuclear scenario simulations. To avoid constraints coming from the existing powerful scenario software such as COSI, VISION or FAMILY, the open source Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulation (CLASS) has been developed. The main asset of CLASS is its ability to include any type of reactor, whether the system is innovative or standard. A reactor is fully described by its evolution database which should contain a set of different validated fuel compositions in order to simulate transitional scenarios. CLASS aims to be a useful tool to study scenarios involving Generation-IV reactors as well as innovative fuel cycles, like the thorium cycle. In addition to all standard key objects required by an electronuclear scenario simulation (the isotopic vector, the reactor, the fuel storage and the fabrication units), CLASS also integrates two new specific modules: fresh fuel evolution and recycled fuel fabrication. The first module, dealing with fresh fuel evolution, is implemented in CLASS by solving Bateman equations built from a database induced cross-sections. The second module, which incorporates the fabrication of recycled fuel to CLASS, can be defined by user priorities and/or algorithms. By default, it uses a linear Pu equivalent-method, which allows predicting, from the isotopic composition, the maximum burn-up accessible for a set type of fuel. This paper presents the basis of the CLASS scenario, the fuel method applied to a MOX fuel and an evolution module benchmark based on the French electronuclear fleet from 1977 to 2012. Results of the CLASS calculation were compared with the inventory made and published by the ANDRA organisation in 2012. For UOX used fuels, the ANDRA reported 12006 tonnes of heavy metal in stock, including cooling, versus 18500 tonnes of heavy metal predicted by CLASS. The large difference is easily explained by the presence of 56 tonnes of plutonium already separated

Scenarios for an integrated sustainability policy - using the example of the ''Sustainable City 2030''. Vol. 4; Szenarien fuer eine integrierte Nachhaltigkeitspolitik - am Beispiel: Die nachhaltige Stadt 2030. Bd. 4. Der Szenario-Prozess - Dokumentation der Prozessergebnisse (Materialband)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gassner, Robert [Institut fuer Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung gGmbH (IZT), Berlin (Germany)

2013-04-15

This project was carried out by a consortium by the Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment (Berlin, Federal Republic of Germany) and German Institute of Urban Affairs (Berlin, Federal Republic of Germany) in the period between December 2009 and November 2012. The project deals with the design of sustainable urban living environments. In a preliminary planning phase, the policy challenges and actors with their interests and future expectations for the project phase have been developed. In the main phase of the project, a systematic, participatory scenario process is used. In this, first normative scenarios for the Sustainable City 2030 Council were developed. From this, options for action, elements of strategy and practical networking approaches for integrated sustainability policies were derived and substantiated with respect to the operational implementation and practical cooperation in the environmental department.

Scenarios for the nonlinear evolution of alpha particle induced Alfven wave instability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berk, H.L.; Breizman, B.N.; Ye, Huanchun.

1992-03-01

Various nonlinear scenarios are given for the evolution of energetic particles that are slowing down in a background plasma and simultaneously causing instability of the background plasma waves. If the background damping is sufficiently weak, a steady-state wave is established as described by Berk and Breizman. For larger background damping rate pulsations develop. Saturation occurs when the wave amplitude rises to where the wave trapping frequency equals the growth rate. The wave then damps due to the small background dissipation present and a relatively long quiet interval exists between bursts while the free energy of the distribution is refilled by classical transport. In this scenario the anomalous energy loss of energetic particles due to diffusion is small compared to the classical collisional energy exchange with the background plasma. However, if at the trapping frequency, the wave amplitude is large enough to cause orbit stochasticity, a phase space ''explosion'' occurs where the wave amplitudes rise to higher levels which leads to rapid loss of energetic particles

Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

1978-03-01

This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

Perspectives of energy technologies: scenarios and strategies at the 2050 vista

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

Every two years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes the 'Energy Technology Perspectives' (ETP) report which analyses the foreseeable energy scenarios and strategies at the 2050 vista and stresses on the best available technologies. For the first time, the IEA describes in this study a scenario allowing to divide by two the CO 2 emissions at the world scale, i.e. compatible with the 'factor 4' scenario of industrialized countries. The study estimates the R and D needs and the necessary additional investments to meet the different tendentious and voluntaristic scenarios proposed by the IEA. This 15. session of the cycle of energy-climate conferences aimed at presenting, from the ETP 2008 study, a thorough examination of the present day situation and perspectives of existing or future 'clean' energy technologies through the analysis of several scenarios. An examination of the interpretation of these scenarios at the France and European levels is made in order to define what should be the trends of public policies and international cooperation. This document gathers the transparencies of the two presentations given during this conference. The first presentation by Pieter Boot, Director of the Office of Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology of IEA, makes a synthesis of the ETP study and presents the recommendations of the agency. The second presentation by Olivier Appert, President of the French institute of petroleum (IFP), gives a counterpoint of the first presentation by considering the financing and acceptance aspects, in particular from the French point of view. Finally a debate with the audience completes the presentations. (J.S.)

MIV Project: Mission scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

1997-01-01

Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

2005-09-30

Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

A Method of Fire Scenarios Identification in a Consolidated Fire Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon; Yang, Joon Eon

2010-01-01

Conventional fire PSA consider only two cases of fire scenarios, that is one for fire without propagation and the other for single propagation to neighboring compartment. Recently, a consolidated fire risk analysis using single fault tree (FT) was developed. However, the fire scenario identification in the new method is similar to conventional fire analysis method. The present study develops a new method of fire scenario identification in a consolidated fire risk analysis method. An equation for fire propagation is developed to identify fire scenario and a mapping method of fire scenarios into internal event risk model is discussed. Finally, an algorithm for automatic program is suggested

Perspectives of energy technologies: scenarios and strategies at the 2050 vista; Perspectives des technologies de l'energie: scenarios et strategies a l'horizon 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-01

Every two years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes the 'Energy Technology Perspectives' (ETP) report which analyses the foreseeable energy scenarios and strategies at the 2050 vista and stresses on the best available technologies. For the first time, the IEA describes in this study a scenario allowing to divide by two the CO{sub 2} emissions at the world scale, i.e. compatible with the 'factor 4' scenario of industrialized countries. The study estimates the R and D needs and the necessary additional investments to meet the different tendentious and voluntaristic scenarios proposed by the IEA. This 15. session of the cycle of energy-climate conferences aimed at presenting, from the ETP 2008 study, a thorough examination of the present day situation and perspectives of existing or future 'clean' energy technologies through the analysis of several scenarios. An examination of the interpretation of these scenarios at the France and European levels is made in order to define what should be the trends of public policies and international cooperation. This document gathers the transparencies of the two presentations given during this conference. The first presentation by Pieter Boot, Director of the Office of Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology of IEA, makes a synthesis of the ETP study and presents the recommendations of the agency. The second presentation by Olivier Appert, President of the French institute of petroleum (IFP), gives a counterpoint of the first presentation by considering the financing and acceptance aspects, in particular from the French point of view. Finally a debate with the audience completes the presentations. (J.S.)

Application of ECH to the Study of Transport in ITER Baseline Scenario-like Discharges in DIII-D