WorldWideScience

Sample records for scenario study phase

  1. Open Scenario Study, Phase I. Volume 3. Questionnaire Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-03-01

    from PA&E Others (Please list below) Comment: MDA Scenario Books (a further detail drill-down from the MSFDs to support engineering level modeling) 9...Other 3 X Other 4 X Other 5 X Comments: 1. Polictial, Economic, Cultural, and Sociological Data 2. Geospatial and Enviromental

  2. Study on partitioning and transmutation as a possible option for spent fuel management within a nuclear phase-out scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fazion, C.; Rineiski, A.; Salvatores, M.; Schwenk-Ferrero, A.; Romanello, V.; Vezzoni, B.; Gabrielli, F. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology - KIT, Hermann-von-Helmholtz Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    Most Partitioning and Transmutation (PT) studies implicitly presuppose the continuous use of nuclear energy. In this case the development of new facilities or the modification of the fuel cycle can be justified in the long-term as an important feature in order to improve sustainability by minimizing radioactive waste and reducing the burden at waste disposal. In the case of a country with nuclear energy phase-out policy, the PT option might have also an important role for what concerns the final disposal strategies of the spent fuel. In this work three selected scenarios are analyzed in order to assess the impact of PT implementation in a nuclear energy phase out option. The scenarios are: -) Scenario 1: Identification of Research/Development activities needs for a technological development of PT while postponing the decision of PT implementation; -) Scenario 2: Isolated application of PT in a phase-out context; and -) Scenario 3: Implementation of PT in a European context. In order to facilitate the discrimination among the 3 scenarios, a number of figures of indicators have been evaluated for each scenario. The selected indicators are: the mass of High Level Waste (HLW), Uranium inventory, thermal output of HLW, Radiotoxicity, Fuel cycle secondary waste associated to the PT operation, and Facility capacity/number requirements. The reduction, due to PT implementation, of high level wastes masses and their associated volumes can be significant. For what concerns the thermal output and radiotoxicity a significant impact can be also expected. However, when assessing these two indicators the contribution coming from already vitrified waste should also not be neglected. Moreover, an increase of secondary waste inventory is also expected. On the contrary, the increase of fission product inventories due to the operation of the transmutation system has a relatively limited impact on the fuel cycle.

  3. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Value Proposition Study: Interim Report: Phase I Scenario Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sikes, Karen R [ORNL; Markel, Lawrence C [ORNL; Hadley, Stanton W [ORNL; Hinds, Shaun [Sentech, Inc.; DeVault, Robert C [ORNL

    2009-01-01

    Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) offer significant improvements in fuel economy, convenient low-cost recharging capabilities, potential environmental benefits, and decreased reliance on imported petroleum. However, the cost associated with new components (e.g., advanced batteries) to be introduced in these vehicles will likely result in a price premium to the consumer. This study aims to overcome this market barrier by identifying and evaluating value propositions that will increase the qualitative value and/or decrease the overall cost of ownership relative to the competing conventional vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) of 2030 During this initial phase of this study, business scenarios were developed based on economic advantages that either increase the consumer value or reduce the consumer cost of PHEVs to assure a sustainable market that can thrive without the aid of state and Federal incentives or subsidies. Once the characteristics of a thriving PHEV market have been defined for this timeframe, market introduction steps, such as supportive policies, regulations and temporary incentives, needed to reach this level of sustainability will be determined. PHEVs have gained interest over the past decade for several reasons, including their high fuel economy, convenient low-cost recharging capabilities, potential environmental benefits and reduced use of imported petroleum, potentially contributing to President Bush's goal of a 20% reduction in gasoline use in ten years, or 'Twenty in Ten'. PHEVs and energy storage from advanced batteries have also been suggested as enabling technologies to improve the reliability and efficiency of the electric power grid. However, PHEVs will likely cost significantly more to purchase than conventional or other hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), in large part because of the cost of batteries. Despite the potential long-term savings to consumers and value to stakeholders, the initial cost of PHEVs

  4. Hanford groundwater scenario studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, R.C.; Gephart, R.E.; Deju, R.A.; Cole, C.R.; Ahlstrom, S.W.

    1977-05-01

    This report documents the results of two Hanford groundwater scenario studies. The first study examines the hydrologic impact of increased groundwater recharge resulting from agricultural development in the Cold Creek Valley located west of the Hanford Reservation. The second study involves recovering liquid radioactive waste which has leaked into the groundwater flow system from a hypothetical buried tank containing high-level radioactive waste. The predictive and control capacity of the onsite Hanford modeling technology is used to evaluate both scenarios. The results of the first study indicate that Cold Creek Valley irrigationis unlikely to cause significant changes in the water table underlying the high-level waste areas or in the movement of radionuclides already in the groundwater. The hypothetical tank leak study showed that an active response (in this case waste recovery) can be modeled and is a possible alternative to passive monitoring of radionuclide movement in the unlikely event that high-level waste is introduced into the groundwater

  5. Open Scenario Study, Phase I. Volume 1. Assessment Overview and Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-03-01

    review of resources and requirements necessary to implement the response and improving civil military relations. Money Laudering Presents local...or money ? C. PHASE ONE APPROACH To systematically address these kinds of questions, IDA pursued a three-part approach that included reviewing the...their organizations a significant amount of time or money ? B. INTERVIEW QUESTIONS The final sponsor-approved version of the interview questions

  6. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs

  7. Phasing out nuclear in Germany: scenarios of energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knopf, Brigitte; Pahle, Michael; Kondziella, Hendrik; Goetz, Mario; Bruckner, Thomas; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Stark, Hans; Rittelmeyer, Yann-Sven; Wissmann, Nele; Vitasse, Thomas

    2012-02-01

    After the German decision taken in 2011 to phase out nuclear, the authors analyse different scenarios of energy transition, and study the consequences of this phasing out in terms of energy needs provided by fossil fuel plants, of electricity price for households and for industries, and of CO 2 emissions. Independently from the development of renewable energies, the different effects of gas and coal plants replacing nuclear energy have been calculated and compared, and other possible scenarios have been explored. The author also discuss requirements in terms of governance for grid development, for a coordinated European policy of energy and climate, and for transparency and scientific follow-up

  8. Inflationary universe in deformed phase space scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasouli, S. M. M.; Saba, Nasim; Farhoudi, Mehrdad; Marto, João; Moniz, P. V.

    2018-06-01

    We consider a noncommutative (NC) inflationary model with a homogeneous scalar field minimally coupled to gravity. The particular NC inflationary setting herein proposed, produces entirely new consequences as summarized in what follows. We first analyze the free field case and subsequently examine the situation where the scalar field is subjected to a polynomial and exponential potentials. We propose to use a canonical deformation between momenta, in a spatially flat Friedmann-Lemaî tre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) universe, and while the Friedmann equation (Hamiltonian constraint) remains unaffected the Friedmann acceleration equation (and thus the Klein-Gordon equation) is modified by an extra term linear in the NC parameter. This concrete noncommutativity on the momenta allows interesting dynamics that other NC models seem not to allow. Let us be more precise. This extra term behaves as the sole explicit pressure that under the right circumstances implies a period of accelerated expansion of the universe. We find that in the absence of the scalar field potential, and in contrast with the commutative case, in which the scale factor always decelerates, we obtain an inflationary phase for small negative values of the NC parameter. Subsequently, the period of accelerated expansion is smoothly replaced by an appropriate deceleration phase providing an interesting model regarding the graceful exit problem in inflationary models. This last property is present either in the free field case or under the influence of the scalar field potentials considered here. Moreover, in the case of the free scalar field, we show that not only the horizon problem is solved but also there is some resemblance between the evolution equation of the scale factor associated to our model and that for the R2 (Starobinsky) inflationary model. Therefore, our herein NC model not only can be taken as an appropriate scenario to get a successful kinetic inflation, but also is a convenient setting to

  9. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Value Proposition Study: Phase 1, Task 3: Technical Requirements and Procedure for Evaluation of One Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sikes, Karen R [ORNL; Hinds, Shaun [Sentech, Inc.; Hadley, Stanton W [ORNL; McGill, Ralph N [ORNL; Markel, Lawrence C [ORNL; Ziegler, Richard E [ORNL; Smith, David E [ORNL; Smith, Richard L [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL; Brooks, Daniel L [ORNL; Wiegman, Herman [GE Global Research; Miller, Nicholas [GE; Marano, Dr. Vincenzo [Ohio State University

    2008-07-01

    In Task 2, the project team designed the Phase 1 case study to represent the 'baseline' plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) fleet of 2030 that investigates the effects of seventeen (17) value propositions (see Table 1 for complete list). By creating a 'baseline' scenario, a consistent set of assumptions and model parameters can be established for use in more elaborate Phase 2 case studies. The project team chose southern California as the Phase 1 case study location because the economic, environmental, social, and regulatory conditions are conducive to the advantages of PHEVs. Assuming steady growth of PHEV sales over the next two decades, PHEVs are postulated to comprise approximately 10% of the area's private vehicles (about 1,000,000 vehicles) in 2030. New PHEV models introduced in 2030 are anticipated to contain lithium-ion batteries and be classified by a blended mileage description (e.g., 100 mpg, 150 mpg) that demonstrates a battery size equivalence of a PHEV-30. Task 3 includes the determination of data, models, and analysis procedures required to evaluate the Phase 1 case study scenario. Some existing models have been adapted to accommodate the analysis of the business model and establish relationships between costs and value to the respective consumers. Other data, such as the anticipated California generation mix and southern California drive cycles, have also been gathered for use as inputs. The collection of models that encompasses the technical, economic, and financial aspects of Phase 1 analysis has been chosen and is described in this deliverable. The role of PHEV owners, utilities (distribution systems, generators, independent system operators (ISO), aggregators, or regional transmission operators (RTO)), facility owners, financing institutions, and other third parties are also defined.

  10. Phasing out nuclear, a credible scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatelain, C.; Mulot, R.; Chauveau, L.; Hait, J.F.

    2011-01-01

    Based on data from different companies, institutions and associations involved in nuclear energy (either in its production or in its critic), this article comments the possible energy savings (50 to 64%) that may be reached in the different sectors, and more particularly in the building sector and in electrical equipment. It discusses the potential production from solar, wind and biogas energy. It notices that phasing out nuclear is possible by 2030-2050, but would entail an increase of electricity prices. The German approach is presented. An article comments the anger of Fukushima Japanese farmers and evokes the slow building up of a solidarity network between France and Japan. A last article comments the authorization given to a further exploitation of the Fessenheim nuclear power plant (ten more years)

  11. Identification of characteristics and frequent scenarios of single-vehicle rollover crashes during pre-ballistic phase; part 1 - A descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Taewung; Bose, Dipan; Foster, Jon; Bollapragada, Varun; Crandall, Jeff R; Clauser, Mark; Kerrigan, Jason R

    2017-10-01

    This study aimed to identify common patterns of pre-ballistic vehicle kinematics and roadway characteristics of real-world rollover crashes. Rollover crashes that were enrolled in the National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) between the years 2000 and 2010 were analyzed. A descriptive analysis was performed to understand the characteristics of the pre-ballistic phase. Also, a frequency based pattern analysis was performed using a selection of NASS-CDS variables describing the pre-ballistic vehicle kinematics and roadway characteristics to rank common pathways of rollover crashes. Most case vehicles departed the road due to a loss of control/traction (LOC) (61%). The road departure with LOC was found to be 13.4 times more likely to occur with slippery road conditions compared to dry conditions. The vehicle was typically laterally skidding with yawing prior to a rollover (66%). Most case vehicles tripped over (82%) mostly at roadside/median (69%). The tripping force was applied to the wheels/tires (82%) from the ground (79%). The combination of these six most frequent attributes resulted in the most common scenario, which accounted for 26% of the entire cases. Large proportion of road departure with LOC (61%) implies electronic stability control (ESC) systems being an effective countermeasure for preventing single-vehicle rollover crashes. Furthermore, the correlation between the road departure with LOC and the reduced friction limit suggests the necessity of the performance evaluation of ESC under compromised road surface condition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Scenario study on the FBR deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Kiyoshi; Kofuji, Hirohide; Otaki, Akira; Yonezawa, Shigeaki; Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Hirao, Kazunori; Ikegami, Tetsuo

    2000-12-01

    This study on success scenarios for the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) deployment was performed taking account of future situation of fossil, renewable and nuclear energies in Japan as well as the world from the viewpoints of the following four items; economics, environment, energy security and restriction of natural uranium resources. In the economics scenario, if carbon tax is added to generating cost of LNG, coal and oil and the economics of FBR cycle is competitive with LWR cycle in the future, FBR cycle will be expected to introduce as the middle and base load power plant. In the environment scenario, there is also any possibility that FBR cycle which can burn and transmute minor actinide and fission product elements will be introduced in order to reduce the burden of deposit facility and the toxicity of high-level waste. In the uranium resources restriction scenario, FBR cycle needs to be deployed at the latest in the middle of 21st century from the viewpoint of the restriction of natural uranium resources. This study was carried out in a part of JNC's feasibility study on commercialized FBR cycle system. (author)

  13. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  14. Efficient renewable energy scenarios study for Victoria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, Graham

    1991-01-01

    This study examines the possible evolution of Victorian energy markets over the 1998-2030 period from technical, economic and environmental perspectives. The focus is on the technical and economic potential over the study period for renewable energy and energy efficiency to increase their share of energy markets, through their economic competitiveness with the non-renewables of oil, gas and fossil fulled electricity. The study identifies a range of energy options that have a lower impact on carbon dioxide emissions that current projections for the Victorian energy sector, together with the savings in energy, dollars and carbon dioxide emissions. In addition the macroeconomic implications of the energy paths are estimated. Specifically it examines a scenario (R-efficient renewable) where energy efficiency and renewable energy sources realise their estimated economic potential to displace non-renewable energy over the 1988-2030 period. In addition, a scenario (T-Toronto) is examined where energy markets are pushed somewhat harder, but again on an economic basis, so that what is called the Toronto target of reducing 1988 carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions by 20 per cent by 2005 is attained. It is concluded that over the next forty years there is substantial economic potential in Victoria for significant gains from energy efficiency in all sectors - residential, commercial, industrial and transport - and contributions from renewable energy both in those sectors and in electricity generations. 7 figs., 5 tabs

  15. Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dlhopolsky, R; Hollmann, R; Mueller, J; Stuhlmann, R [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

    1998-12-31

    The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

  16. Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dlhopolsky, R.; Hollmann, R.; Mueller, J.; Stuhlmann, R. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

    1997-12-31

    The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

  17. Palestinian-Israeli Scenario Planning - Phase II | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    As currently foreseen, neither the two-state nor the one-state solution offers much hope of resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Scenario Planning Program of the Strategic Assessments Initiative (SAI) aims to launch a deeper examination of what a sustainable solution requires by shifting the debate from the ...

  18. Phasing out nuclear, a credible scenario; Sortir du nucleaire, un scenario credible

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chatelain, C.; Mulot, R.; Chauveau, L.; Hait, J.F.

    2011-08-15

    Based on data from different companies, institutions and associations involved in nuclear energy (either in its production or in its critic), this article comments the possible energy savings (50 to 64%) that may be reached in the different sectors, and more particularly in the building sector and in electrical equipment. It discusses the potential production from solar, wind and biogas energy. It notices that phasing out nuclear is possible by 2030-2050, but would entail an increase of electricity prices. The German approach is presented. An article comments the anger of Fukushima Japanese farmers and evokes the slow building up of a solidarity network between France and Japan. A last article comments the authorization given to a further exploitation of the Fessenheim nuclear power plant (ten more years)

  19. Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) - MELCOR Crosswalk: Phase II Analyzing a Partially Recovered Accident Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, Nathan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Faucett, Christopher [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Haskin, Troy Christopher [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Luxat, Dave [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Geiger, Garrett [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Codella, Brittany [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Following the conclusion of the first phase of the crosswalk analysis, one of the key unanswered questions was whether or not the deviations found would persist during a partially recovered accident scenario, similar to the one that occurred in TMI - 2. In particular this analysis aims to compare the impact of core degradation morphology on quenching models inherent within the two codes and the coolability of debris during partially recovered accidents. A primary motivation for this study is the development of insights into how uncertainties in core damage progression models impact the ability to assess the potential for recovery of a degraded core. These quench and core recovery models are of the most interest when there is a significant amount of core damage, but intact and degraded fuel still remain in the cor e region or the lower plenum. Accordingly this analysis presents a spectrum of partially recovered accident scenarios by varying both water injection timing and rate to highlight the impact of core degradation phenomena on recovered accident scenarios. This analysis uses the newly released MELCOR 2.2 rev. 966 5 and MAAP5, Version 5.04. These code versions, which incorporate a significant number of modifications that have been driven by analyses and forensic evidence obtained from the Fukushima - Daiichi reactor site.

  20. Probabilistic approach relative to fire scenarios study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chabot, Jean-Luc

    1998-01-01

    The main objective of this thesis is to develop a calculation method of the occurring probability of the fire scenarios (detection, setting of the intervention, extinction) taking into account the size and the impact of the fire on the surroundings. This new method is called 'hybrid simulation'. It includes in a unique modelling the processing of continuous and discrete phenomenon. Moreover, to correctly represent fire scenarios, it is necessary not to take only into account the 'continuous' growing of the fire itself but of also 'discrete' events like detection, fire fighting and extinction, human behaviour and related faults. For that purpose we couple a code modelling the physical aspects of the fire to Petri nets which is able to model these 'discrete' events, this coupling consists of driving the 'continuous' model by the occurring of the 'discrete' events. This new technique which can be used to cover 'discrete' and 'continuous' events in a single calculation represents a solution to dynamic reliability calculation problems, for which there is a continuously increasing demand for analysing reliability, availability of production and maintainability of complex industrial systems. (author) [fr

  1. Innovative TRU Burners and Fuel Cycles Options for Phase-Out and Regional Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vezzoni, B.; Gabrielli, F.; Rineiski, A.; Schwenk-Ferrero, A.; Andriolo, L.; Maschek, W.

    2015-01-01

    Partitioning and transmutation (P and T) technologies may be considered either for minor actinides (MAs) inventory stabilisation (typical for on-going/regional scenarios) or for a drastic reduction of the transuranics inventory (as in phasing-out scenarios). In this paper, two sodium-cooled fast reactor cores, based on the French ASTRID design and characterised by different amounts of MAs in the fuel, are proposed. Attention focuses on the safety and on the burning performances of the systems. The behaviour of the systems under dynamic conditions has been investigated considering phasing-out and on-going fuel cycle scenarios. The results demonstrate the flexibility of such systems when employed in different kinds of fuel cycles. The impact of different parameters, such as the initial isotopic vector (and Cm content) and the cooling time before reprocessing, on the simulation results is investigated as well. (authors)

  2. Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

    2018-02-01

    Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case ‘no policy’ scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced ‘dynamics as usual’ of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date.

  3. Optimizing the current ramp-up phase for the hybrid ITER scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hogeweij, G.M.D.; Artaud, J.F.; Casper, T.A.; Citrin, J.; Imbeaux, F.; Köchl, F.; Litaudon, X.; Voitsekhovitch, I.

    2013-01-01

    The current ramp-up phase for the ITER hybrid scenario is analysed with the CRONOS integrated modelling suite. The simulations presented in this paper show that the heating systems available at ITER allow, within the operational limits, the attainment of a hybrid q profile at the end of the current

  4. Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

  5. Scenario visualisation for participatory landscape planning - a study from Denmark

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tress, B.; Tress, G.

    2003-01-01

    Increasingly, different functions must be integrated simultaneously in the Danish countryside, demanding a common effort of planners, decision-makers, researchers, and stakeholders. The study proposes a transdisciplinary method that combines scenario technique, photorealistic visualisation, and

  6. The electronuclear scenario, tools and studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grouiller, J.P.; Faure, C.; Doriath, J.Y.; Giacometti, A.; Pavageau, J.; Arnaud, G.; Dumas, M.

    2000-01-01

    The strategical decisions need a global vision of the fuel cycle. The based options as fuel, reactors, fuel plants, disposal and storage, must be evaluated in the implementing and the management of a nuclear park. To define the nuclear policy tools, as physical models and codes, and prospective studies are necessary. They are developed in this paper. (A.L.B.)

  7. Evaluating Uncertainty in GHG Emission Scenarios: Mapping IAM Outlooks With an Energy System Phase Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritchie, W. J.; Dowlatabadi, H.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing (RF). Pathways for long-run fossil energy use that map to total forcing outcomes are commonly depicted with integrated assessment models (IAMs). IAMs structure outlooks for 21st-century emissions with various theories for developments in demographics, economics, land-use, energy markets and energy service demands. These concepts are applied to understand global changes in two key factors relevant for scenarios of carbon emissions: total energy use (E) this century and the carbon intensity of that energy (F/E). A simple analytical and graphical approach can also illustrate the full range of outcomes for these variables to determine if IAMs provide sufficient coverage of the uncertainty space for future energy use. In this talk, we present a method for understanding uncertainties relevant to RF scenario components in a phase space. The phase space of a dynamic system represents significant factors as axes to capture the full range of physically possible states. A two-dimensional phase space of E and F/E presents the possible system states that can lead to various levels of total 21st-century carbon emissions. Once defined in this way, a phase space of these energy system coordinates allows for rapid characterization of large IAM scenario sets with machine learning techniques. This phase space method is applied to the levels of RF described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The resulting RCP phase space identifies characteristics of the baseline energy system outlooks provided by IAMs for IPCC Working Group III. We conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the major features of IAM scenarios for each RCP range. Cluster analysis finds the IAM scenarios in AR5 illustrate RCPs with consistent combinations of energy resources. This suggests IAM scenarios understate uncertainty ranges for future

  8. Management of actinide waste inventories in nuclear phase-out scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cometto, M.; Wydler, P.; Chawla, R.

    2008-01-01

    The improvement of the 'radiological cleanliness' of nuclear energy is a primary goal in the development of advanced reactors and fuel cycles. The multiple recycling of actinides in advanced nuclear systems with fast neutron spectra represents a key option for reducing the potential hazard from high-level waste, especially when the fuel cycle is fully closed. Such strategies, however, involve large inventories of radiotoxic, transuranic (TRU) nuclides in the nuclear park, both in-pile and out-of-pile. The management of these inventories with the help of actinide burners is likely to become an important issue, if nuclear energy systems are eventually phased out, i.e. replaced by other types of energy systems. The present paper compares phase-out scenarios for two transmutation strategies involving fast reactors (FRs) and accelerator-driven systems (ADSs), respectively, operating in symbiosis with conventional light water reactors (LWRs). Particular objectives are to evaluate and compare the TRU reduction performance of the systems as a function of the phase-out time and to determine the appropriate phase-out length for different phase-out criteria. In this connection, an interesting aspect concerns the continuous optimisation of the fuel cycle to counterbalance the reactivity decrease due to the depletion of the fissile isotopes in the fuel. It will be shown that both FRs and ADSs can achieve the goal, provided that the phase-out operation can be continued for about a hundred years

  9. An environmentally sustainable transport system in Sweden. A scenario study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brokking, P.; Emmelin, L.; Engstroem, M-G.; Nilsson, Jan-Evert; Eriksson, Gunnar; Wikberg, O.

    1997-02-01

    This is a short version of a scenario study concerning the possibilities to reach an Environmentally Sustainable Transport system in Sweden in a perspective of 30 years. The aim of the scenario study has been to describe one of several possible paths from today`s transport system to an environmentally adopted one. However, this does not imply that the task is to predict how such a transformation can be accomplished. The aim is rather to illustrate what such transformation require in the form of political decisions. The transformation of the transport system in to an environmentally adopted one, is primarily treated as a political problem, and a political perspective has accordingly been chosen for the study. In this English version of the scenario, the carbon dioxide problem is used to illuminate the many conflicts in goals and other problem that will attend an environmental adoption of the Swedish transport system, and to highlight the analytical points of departure for the scenario study. The analysis shows that it is possible to reach the national environmental goals that characterise, with given definitions, an environmentally sustainable transport system. However, this implies many severe political decisions over a long period of time, which in turn, implies a long term national consensus about the importance to reach the overall goal. Other results the scenario points out, is the risk that a policy focused on one sector leads to `solving` a problem by moving it outside systems limitations, and the limitations on a national environmental policy: Being able to count on assistance from other countries through an environmental adoption of the transport system in the European Union or globally, would drastically facilitate the environmental adoption of the Swedish transport system, through, among other things, a more rapid technological development. This indicates the necessity of promoting issues involving transportation and the environment in international

  10. Economic study of fuel scenarios for a reload

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz S, J. J.; Castillo M, J. A.; Montes T, J. L.; Perusquia del C, R.

    2014-10-01

    In this work the results to plan different scenarios for designing a nuclear fuel reload are shown. Given a reload with specific energy requirements, the objective is to verify the feasibility of using either a greater number of fresh fuel with less uranium enrichment, or otherwise reduce the number of fresh fuel assemblies and therefore they have a higher average uranium enrichment. For the study a cycle balance 18-month basis with 112 fresh assemblies divided into two lots, with energy produced of 10,075 Mwd/Tu was used. For the designs under the mentioned scenarios, the heuristic techniques known as taboo search and neural networks were used. To verify the feasibility of obtained reloads an economic study of the reload costs was performed. The results showed that is possible to design reloads under the two scenarios, but was more complicated decrease the amount of fresh fuel assemblies. In both scenarios was possible to reduce manufacturing costs of fuel and according to purely static calculation, it would be possible to increase the energy produced. (Author)

  11. Optimizing the current ramp-up phase for the hybrid ITER scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogeweij, G.M.D.; Citrin, J.; Artaud, J.-F.; Imbeaux, F.; Litaudon, X.; Casper, T.A.; Köchl, F.; Voitsekhovitch, I.

    2013-01-01

    The current ramp-up phase for the ITER hybrid scenario is analysed with the CRONOS integrated modelling suite. The simulations presented in this paper show that the heating systems available at ITER allow, within the operational limits, the attainment of a hybrid q profile at the end of the current ramp-up. A reference ramp-up scenario is reached by a combination of NBI, ECCD (UPL) and LHCD. A heating scheme with only NBI and ECCD can also reach the target q profile; however, LHCD can play a crucial role in reducing the flux consumption during the ramp-up phase. The optimum heating scheme depends on the chosen transport model, and on assumptions of parameters like n e peaking, edge T e,i and Z eff . The sensitivity of the current diffusion on parameters that are not easily controlled, shows that development of real-time control is important to reach the target q profile. A first step in that direction has been indicated in this paper. Minimizing resistive flux consumption and optimizing the q profile turn out to be conflicting requirements. A trade-off between these two requirements has to be made. In this paper it is shown that fast current ramp with L-mode current overshoot is at the one extreme, i.e. the optimum q profile at the cost of increased resistive flux consumption, whereas early H-mode transition is at the other extreme. (paper)

  12. Scenario Study on PM emission Reduction in Cement Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Qian; Chen, Xiaojun; Xia, Xin; Wang, Lijuan; Wang, Huili; Jin, Ling; Yan, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    Cement industry is one of the high pollution industries in China. Evaluation of the primary particulate matter (PM) emission status and the reduction potential is not only important for our understanding of the effectiveness of current pollution control measures but also vital for future policy design. In this study, PM emitted from cement producing process in 2014 was calculated using an emission factor method. Three PM emission control scenarios were set up considering source control, process management and end-of-pipe treatment, and the PM emission reduction by 2020 under the three scenarios was predicted, respectively. In 2014, the primary PM emission from cement industry was 1.95 million tons. By 2020, the productions of cement and clinker were expected to increase by 12% and 7%, respectively, and the PM emission would increase by about 10%. By implementation of GB4915-2013 and comprehensive control of fugitive PM emission, the PM emission would probably be reduced by 34%. Another 7% decrease would be expected from source control. The second scenario can be considered as an assessment of the effectiveness of the revised emission standard, and this research can be used as a technical support to the environmental management authorities to make relevant policies.

  13. A real case study on transportation scenario comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsoukiás A.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a real case study dealing with the comparison of transport scenarios. The study is conducted within a larger project concerning the establishment of the maritime traffic policy in Greece. The paper presents the problem situation and an appropriate problem formulation. Moreover a detailed version of the evaluation model is presented in the paper. The model consists of a complex hierarchy of evaluation models enabling us to take into account the multiple dimensions and points of view of the actors involved in the evaluations.

  14. Scenario approximation in a phenomenological study in Mexico: experience report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero-Castañeda, Raúl Fernando; Menezes, Tânia Maria de Oliva; Vargas, Ma Guadalupe Ojeda

    2017-01-01

    To report our experience using scenario approximation in a phenomenological study of nursing in Mexico. Experience report on scenario approximation to coexist with elderly in order to select the participants of a phenomenological study. During a four-month period in 2016, visits were carried out two groups of elderly individuals where several activities were carried out. Coexistence with the elderly throughout accompaniment in the groups' activities together with joint dialogue allowed selection of those who corresponded to the characteristics of the study objective. Scenario approximation is necessary in phenomenological studies, not only for creating empathy among the participants but also for the researchers to immerse themselves in the phenomenon under study, as shown by the first approaches of the researcher. Relatar la experiencia del acercamiento al escenario de un estudio fenomenológico en enfermería en México. Relato de experiencia sobre el acercamiento al escenario de estudio para convivir con adultos mayores con la finalidad de seleccionar a los participantes de un estudio fenomenológico. Se llevaron a cabo visitas durante el año 2016, en un periodo de cuatro meses a dos grupos de adultos mayores en donde se realizaron diversas actividades. La convivencia con los adultos mayores a través del acompañamiento en las actividades que realizaban en los grupos y el diálogo conjunto permitió seleccionar a aquellos que respondían a las características del objeto de estudio. Es necesaria la aproximación al escenario de estudios fenomenológicos, no sólo con la finalidad de ganar empatía de los participantes sino para sumergirse en el fenómeno de estudio, mismo que se va mostrando desde los primeros acercamientos del investigador.

  15. Hazards study of environmental protection classified facilities. Scenarios analysis; Etude de dangers des ICPE. Analyse des scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seveque, J.L. [Cour d' Appel d' Amiens, 80 (France)

    2006-04-15

    This article describes the analysis and study of the possible impacts of accidents occurring at industrial facilities classified with respect to the environment protection. The operators of such facilities have to describe the possible risks and their consequences, the measures taken to prevent them and the level of residual risk. Therefore, it consists in calculating the consequences of all possible aggressions that a facility can undergo. The receptors are of 2 type: the human body (burns, asphyxia, intoxication, shock wave, projectile), and the surrounding equipments (fire, unconfined vapour cloud explosion (UVCE), boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE), fireball, dispersion of toxic gases). Content: 1 - fire-type scenario: description, modeling of thermal effects, conclusion; 2 - UVCE-type scenario: description, Lannoy method (TNT equivalent), multi-energy method, conclusion; 3 - BLEVE-type scenario: description, modeling of overpressure effects, thermal effects of the fireball; 4 - toxic cloud scenario: modeling of a toxic cloud dispersion, effects and consequences; 5 - conclusions. (J.S.)

  16. A Study of Universal Thermodynamics in Brane World Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitra, Saugata; Saha, Subhajit; Chakraborty, Subenoy

    2015-01-01

    A study of Universal thermodynamics is done in the framework of RSII brane model and DGP brane scenario. The Universe is chosen as FRW model bounded by apparent or event horizon. Assuming extended Hawking temperature on the horizon, the unified first law is examined for perfect fluid (with constant equation of state) and Modified Chaplygin Gas model. As a result there is a modification of Bekenstein entropy on the horizons. Further the validity of the generalized second law of thermodynamics and thermodynamical equilibrium are also investigated

  17. Which comparative costs between phasing out nuclear within 20 years and carrying on nuclear energy like in the DGEC scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dessus, Benjamin

    2011-01-01

    The author proposes a comparison between two scenarios by 2031: phasing out nuclear or carrying on according to the DGEC scenario. According to the last one, nuclear power plants are progressively replaced by EPRs. The author analyses, assesses and compares the electricity production, transportation, distribution, and saving costs, and then the different investments to be made (in electricity production, for electricity saving, for the grid)

  18. Scenario for concurrent conceptual assembly line design: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mas, F.; Ríos, J.; Menéndez, J. L.

    2012-04-01

    The decision to design and build a new aircraft is preceded by years of research and study. Different disciplines work together throughout the lifecycle to ensure not only a complete functional definition of the product, but also a complete industrialization, a marketing plan, a maintenance plan, etc. This case study focuses on the conceptual design phase. During this phase, the design solutions that will meet the functional and industrial requirements are defined, i.e.: the basic requirements of industrialization. During this phase, several alternatives are studied, and the most attractive in terms of performance and cost requirements is selected. As a result of the study of these alternatives, it is possible to define an early conceptual design of the assembly line and its basic parameters. The plant needs, long cycle jigs & tools or industrial means and human resources with the necessary skills can be determined in advance.

  19. Phase controlled rectifier study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bronner, G.; Murray, J.G.

    1976-03-01

    This report introduces the results of an engineering study incorporating a computer program to determine the transient and steady-state voltage and current wave shapes for a 12-pulse rectifier system. Generally, rectifier engineering studies are completed by making simplified assumptions and neglecting many circuit parameters. The studies incorporate the 3-phase AC parameters including nonlinear source or generator, 3-winding transformer impedances, and shunt and series capacitors. It includes firing angle control, and DC filter circuits with inductive loads

  20. The regionalization of climate scenarios: towards impact studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cariolle, D.

    1999-01-01

    This article describes the different types of climate numerical models and their use to obtain scenarios for climate change due to the greenhouse gas increase. Results from global or meso-scale models are given. They illustrate the existing ways of representing climatic conditions at global and regional scales. Combined with statistical approaches based for example on the techniques of analogues, their use gives a coherent strategy going from global scale numerical simulations to the study of impacts at a local scale. In the future the increase of computer power should allow a better description of the small processes and a wider range of impact studies on natural ecosystems and various economic sectors. The results of these studies will be very useful to define a coherent policy in response to observed or predicted climate changes. (author)

  1. Feasibility study of advanced operation scenario in KSTAR using CRONOS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, H.-S.; Na, Y.-S.; Bae, Y.S.; Jeon, Y.M.; Kim, S.H.; Artaud, J.-F.

    2014-01-01

    We report the results of predictive modelling of advanced operation scenarios in KSTAR. Firstly, the operation windows are produced to explore the KSTAR advanced scenarios in the condition of upgrading H/CD mix. Using METIS code, the rough ranges of operation condition of I_P and B_T to utilize for the development of advanced operation scenario scenario are determined. Secondly, the advanced inductive and the advanced tokamak operation scenario of KSTAR are developing with the scaling based and the physics based transport model by using CRONOS to make a suggestion to on-going KSTAR experiment. Thirdly, the dependency of the time of L-H transition on q_0 an q_m_i_n is investigated for the advanced inductive operation scenario. These reliable results can become the useful database for exploring the advanced regime of KSTAR discharges in the future. (author)

  2. Design scenarios for renovation of sports complex: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nižetić, S.

    2018-02-01

    This paper elaborates design scenarios for a sports complex in Croatia from a technical and economic aspect. Different energy options are analysed and two are additionally addressed and discussed as the most viable ones. The possibilities of sports complex renovation are shown by properly choosing the appropriate energy concept and thus reducing the overall cost for produced thermal energy by around 33% and reducing the carbon dioxide emission by a factor of 1.8 in comparison with its present state. Finally, this study presents an example of good practice, where renewable energy solutions can be proposed and where it is possible to cover around 70-80% of overall yearly costs from achieved energy savings for the novel plant that is assumed to be financed through a bank loan.

  3. Cost-benefit study of different application scenarios in teleradiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heckermann, D.; Wetekam, V.; Hundt, W.; Reiser, M.

    1997-01-01

    With the increasing number of users and technical improvements, there are several application scenarios of teleradiology. To perform a cost-benefit analysis, an approach is presented, which focuses on both monetary and qualitative aspects. Process-related, qualitative and quantitative evaluations are described. The prestudy compares the radiological workflow before and after the introduction of a teleradiology system. A scoring model is part of the qualitative evaluation. The quantitative study focuses on costs and savings. Amortisation and a net present value of savings versus costs can be derived using dynamic investment methods. Savings can be achieved after a short time under ideal conditions, but there is no guarantee for a reimbursement for all systems. (orig.) [de

  4. Exhaustive Study of Cosmic Microwave Background Anisotropies in Quintessential Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Brax, P; Riazuelo, A; Brax, Philippe; Martin, Jerome; Riazuelo, Alain

    2000-01-01

    Recent high precision measurements of the CMB anisotropies performed by the BOOMERanG and MAXIMA-1 experiments provide an unmatched set of data allowing to probe different cosmological models. Among these scenarios, motivated by the recent measurements of the luminosity distance versus redshift relation for type Ia supernovae, is the quintessence hypothesis. It consists in assuming that the acceleration of the Universe is due to a scalar field whose final evolution is insensitive to the initial conditions. Within this framework we investigate the cosmological perturbations for two well-motivated potentials: the Ratra-Peebles and the SUGRA tracking potentials. We show that the solutions of the perturbed equations possess an attractor and that, as a consequence, the insensitivity to the initial conditions is preserved at the perturbed level. Then, we study the predictions of these two models for structure formation and CMB anisotropies and investigate the general features of the multipole moments in the presenc...

  5. Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

  6. Flow split characterization of two immiscible phases with different wettability scenarios: a numerical investigation using a coupled Cahn-Hilliard and Navier-Stokes system

    KAUST Repository

    Bao, Kai

    2017-12-23

    Numerical investigation of flow branching of two-phase immiscible fluids in a Y-shaped, planner channel is conducted by solving the coupled Cahn-Hilliard and Naiver-Stokes system with finite element method. In this system a horizontal channel is branched into two identical and symmetric branches with the walls of the channels assigned several different wettability values. The studied scenarios consider a blob of one phase initially encompassed by the other phase. When an applied pressure difference induces flow, it is found that the motion of the blob in the two branches is significantly influenced by the wettability conditions at the channel walls. For the scenarios in which symmetric wettability configurations are applied, the blob divides equally among the two branches. For all the other scenarios in which the wettability configurations are asymmetric, the blob splits unequally. Comparisons between the different scenarios are performed in terms of the volume of the blob in each branch to investigate the percentage of the blob volume moving in each branch. In addition, we also considered the effect of the flow rate on the branching scenarios. In this work it is demonstrated that even though the pressure gradient is the same among the two symmetric branches, the phases partition differently when asymmetric wettability conditions are applied. The significance of this work may be that it provides evidences that relative permeability (a concept that has been introduced in the study of multiphase flow in porous media) may be more complex than just a mere scalar quantity function of saturation. It also highlights the importance of including the effects of wettability conditions in capillary pressure relationships

  7. Scientific data and climate scenarios. Study report nr 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alex, Bastien; Baillat, Alice; Francois Gemenne; Jean Jouzel

    2017-05-01

    The objective of this report is to present climate evolutions and their impacts according to two warming scenarios: a 2 degree increase of the average surface temperature by 2100 (i.e. the most optimistic IPCC scenario), and a 5 degree increase by 2100 (the most pessimistic scenario). As far as possible, physical, social and economic, and health impacts are assessed by 2030 and 2050. The authors notice that the differences between both scenarios are hardly discernible by 2030, but more obviously by 2050. After a brief recall on IPCC scenarios, a first part addresses the evolutions of the world climate by considering the atmosphere (temperature increase, modification of precipitation regimes), seas and oceans (temperature, currents and thermal circulation, ocean acidification, seal level rise), extreme climate events (observations and trends, main impacts on populations and infrastructures), and the cryo-sphere (observations and impacts). The second part discusses regional predictions in terms of trends and impacts for metropolitan France and its overseas territories, for Africa, and for the Asia-Pacific region. The last part briefly discusses the possibly necessary evolution of the typology chosen to determine sources of vulnerability and the level of exposure to different risks. Many appendices propose more detailed presentations on specific issues and examples. A summarised version of the report is also provided

  8. Options Study - Phase II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. Wigeland; T. Taiwo; M. Todosow; W. Halsey; J. Gehin

    2010-09-01

    The Options Study has been conducted for the purpose of evaluating the potential of alternative integrated nuclear fuel cycle options to favorably address the issues associated with a continuing or expanding use of nuclear power in the United States. The study produced information that can be used to inform decisions identifying potential directions for research and development on such fuel cycle options. An integrated nuclear fuel cycle option is defined in this study as including all aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, from obtaining natural resources for fuel to the ultimate disposal of used nuclear fuel (UNF) or radioactive wastes. Issues such as nuclear waste management, especially the increasing inventory of used nuclear fuel, the current uncertainty about used fuel disposal, and the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation have contributed to the reluctance to expand the use of nuclear power, even though it is recognized that nuclear power is a safe and reliable method of producing electricity. In this Options Study, current, evolutionary, and revolutionary nuclear energy options were all considered, including the use of uranium and thorium, and both once-through and recycle approaches. Available information has been collected and reviewed in order to evaluate the ability of an option to clearly address the challenges associated with the current implementation and potential expansion of commercial nuclear power in the United States. This Options Study is a comprehensive consideration and review of fuel cycle and technology options, including those for disposal, and is not constrained by any limitations that may be imposed by economics, technical maturity, past policy, or speculated future conditions. This Phase II report is intended to be used in conjunction with the Phase I report, and much information in that report is not repeated here, although some information has been updated to reflect recent developments. The focus in this Options Study was to

  9. Analyses of the performance of the ASTRID-like TRU burners in regional scenario studies - 5136

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vezzoni, B.; Gabrielli, F.; Rineiski, A.

    2015-01-01

    In the past, large Sodium Fast Reactors systems (earlier CAPRA/CADRA, later ESFR and ESFR-like systems) and Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS-EFIT) were considered and extensively studied in Europe for managing MAs/Pu within regional or national scenario studies. After the ASTRID system was proposed in France, ASTRID-like burners could be considered as further options to be investigated. Low conversion ratio (CR) ASTRID-like burner cores (1200 MWth) have been considered at KIT by introducing few modifications with respect to the original French ASTRID design. These modifications allow keeping almost unchanged the main characteristics of the system (e.g. thermal power) and avoiding a strong deterioration of safety parameters (such as sodium void effect) after introduction of large amounts of Pu (more than 20%) and MAs (2-12%) in the fuel. These cores have already been studied at KIT for phase-out scenarios. A constant energy production case, relevant for a European or another regional scenario is considered in the paper. Cases with different shares (from 10 to 30%) of ASTRID-like burners in the nuclear energy fleet are compared. The results show that the ASTRID-like burners allow the use of all TRUs compositions foreseen in the fuel cycle with a proper choice of the MAs to Pu ratios and of the U/TRUs fractions either in phasing-out and on-going nuclear energy utilization conditions. The results show that a mixed fleet composed of 11% burners and 89% ESFR is able to stabilize the MAs in the cycle. The same stabilization is obtained with a fleet composed by 33% burner in combination with LWRs only

  10. Design and preparation of scenarios for human factors studies in the HAMMLAB

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moracho, M. J.

    1999-01-01

    In the preparation of experiments for Human Factors studies, the scenarios play an important role. As a matter of fact, scenario effect is often demonstrated in the analysis of results. An experimental study referred to as Experiments' 97 was conducted in the Halden Man Machine LABoratory. In the design of the scenarios for this experiment, an effort was made for producing scenarios in compliance with the objectives of the study. Before the experiment simulations, scenario analysis was conducted and documented. This report presents some of the lessons learned from these activities. It also identifies main issues to be considered in the scenario characterisation and preparation. Examples of the scenarios' design document produced for the Experiments' 97 as well as examples of measure definitions for OPAS (OPerator Assessment System) and PPAS (Plant Performance System) are included in the appendixes (author) (ml)

  11. Regional climate scenarios for use in Nordic water resources studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rummukainen, Markku; Räisänen, J.; Bjørge, D.

    2003-01-01

    in the Nordic region than in the global mean, regional increases and decreases in net precipitation, longer growing season, shorter snow season etc. These in turn affect runoff, snowpack, groundwater, soil frost and moisture, and thus hydropower production potential, flooding risks etc. Regional climate models......-users of water resources scenarios are the hydropower industry, dam safety instances and planners of other lasting infrastructure exposed to precipitation, river flows and flooding....

  12. Japanese FR Deployment Scenario Study after the Fukushima Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Kiyoshi; Shiotani, Hiroki; Ohtaki, Akira; Mukaida, Kyoko; Abe, Tomoyuki

    2013-01-01

    Conclusion: • The results revealed a need for the implementation of reprocessing and development of FR from the view point of reducing waste, etc. in the medium to long term. • JAEA’s contribution to international cooperation and standardization focusing on the enhancement of safety and reduction of the radioactive waste burden will be increasingly important in current situation. • JAEA intend to continue to build and propose FR deployment scenarios and identify their characteristics

  13. Project SAFE. Update of the SFR-1 safety assessment. Phase 1. Appendix A2: Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M.

    1998-01-01

    This appendix gives a short description of the scenario methodology adopted in the previous safety assessment of SFR. Since then new methodologies for developing structured descriptions of how processes and interactions between processes affect the evolution of a repository system. Two such methods are briefly described. These methods are very similar, but they differ in the way the system is graphically structured. One of the methods is based on Process Influence Diagrams, PID, and the other on Interaction matrices. It is proposed that the method based on Interaction matrices is used for the scenario work in project SAFE. The main reason for this is that the method already has been applied by SKB, which means that it will be possible to use already existing procedures and documentation systems. The proposed procedure involves the development of Interaction matrices for a defined Reference scenario and the use of these matrices to illustrate the effect of different Scenario initiating FEPs. The proposed procedure is described in this appendix

  14. Study of Mobility Enhancements for RPL in Convergecast Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinpeng Wang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, mobility support has become an important requirement in various wireless sensor network (WSN applications. However, due to the strict resource constraints of power, memory, and processing resources in WSNs, routing protocols are mainly designed without considering mobility. Low-Power and Lossy Networks (LLNs are a special type of WSNs that tolerate data loss. The Routing Protocol for Low-Power and Lossy Networks (RPL is a routing protocol for LLNs that adapts IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6 and runs on top of the IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 802.15.4 standard. RPL supports multipoint-to-point traffic and point-to-multipoint traffic. In this paper we propose a mobility enhancement mechanism in order to improve data collection applications in highly mobile scenarios. The enhancement is based on signal strength monitoring and depth updating in order to improve the routing protocol performance in mobile scenarios. This enhancement helps routing protocols to cope better with topology changes and makes proactive decisions on updating next-hop neighbours. We integrated this mechanism into the RPL and compared it with other existing RPL mobility support enhancements. Results obtained through simulation using Cooja show that our work outperforms other existing RPL mobility supports on different performance metrics. Results also prove the efficiency of our proposal in highly mobile scenarios.

  15. SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey; Donovan, Sally; Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Kammen, Daniel

    2014-06-01

    This study provides an updated analysis of long-term energy system scenarios for California consistent with the State meeting its 2050 climate goal, including detailed analysis and assessment of electricity system build-out, operation, and costs across the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Four key elements are found to be critical for the State to achieve its 2050 goal of 80 percent greenhouse (GHG) reductions from the 1990 level: aggressive energy efficiency; clean electricity; widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating, and industry heating; and large-scale production of low-carbon footprint biofuels to largely replace petroleum-based liquid fuels. The approach taken here is that technically achievable energy efficiency measures are assumed to be achieved by 2050 and aggregated with the other key elements mentioned above to estimate resultant emissions in 2050. The energy and non-energy sectors are each assumed to have the objective of meeting an 80 percent reduction from their respective 1990 GHG levels for the purposes of analysis. A different partitioning of energy and non-energy sector GHG greenhouse reductions is allowed if emission reductions in one sector are more economic or technically achievable than in the other. Similarly, within the energy or non-energy sectors, greater or less than 80 percent reduction from 1990 is allowed for sub-sectors within the energy or non-energy sectors as long as the overall target is achieved. Overall emissions for the key economy-wide scenarios are considered in this report. All scenarios are compliant or nearly compliant with the 2050 goal. This finding suggests that multiple technical pathways exist to achieve the target with aggressive policy support and continued technology development of largely existing technologies.

  16. Open Scenario Study, Phase II Report: Assessment and Development of Approaches for Satisfying Unclassified Scenario Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Oracle) • Mysql (Open Source) • Other What application server software will be needed? • Application Server • CGI PHP /Perl (Open Source...CGI PHP /Perl (Other Open Source software) • ColdFusion (Adobe) • OAS Application Server (Oracle) • .ASP/.NET (Microsoft) • Inmagic DB/textworks I...developers around the world. 9 • Ms Windows® – Microsoft Windows operating system for personal computers • MySQL (Open Source) - the most reliable

  17. Scenarios of the long term evolution of the energy sector. Energy needs, choices and possibilities: Shell's scenarios for 2050. The long-term evolution of the energy sector. A vision of the 2020-2050 energy mix. Phase dynamics analysis of energy demand scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, B.; Appert, O; Bauquis, P.R.; Alba, P.

    2002-01-01

    This dossier comprises 4 articles dealing with energy scenarios. The first article presents the prospective studies carried out by the Shell group which lead to the construction of two scenarios entitled: 'dynamics as usual' and 'the spirit of the coming age'. Both scenarios foresee an explosion of the primary energy demand for the coming next 50 years (multiplied by a factor of 2 to 2.8 with respect to 2000) with a decline of hydrocarbons for the benefit of gas and renewable energies (including bio-fuels), while nuclear and coal will still represent a quarter of our needs. However, the main uncertainty remains the demographic expansion during the next 50 years. The second article presents the energy models and projections of the IEA for the long-term evolution of the energy sector (petroleum, gas, coal, renewable energy and uranium resources) and the main uncertainties of these projections (economic growth, environmental policies, technological evolutions). The third article presents the agreements and divergences of the author's forecasts for 2050 with Shell's scenarios, while the last article makes a comparison between the IEA, IIASA-CME and Shell scenarios using a phase dynamics analysis. (J.S.)

  18. Study on scenario evaluation methodology for decommissioning nuclear facilities using fuzzy logic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuhashi, Kazuya; Yanagihara, Satoshi

    2015-01-01

    Since there are many scenarios of the process from start to completion of a decommissioning project, it is important to study scenarios of decommissioning by evaluating such properties as safety, cost, and technology. An optimum scenario with the highest feasibility in accordance with the facility and environmental conditions should be selected on the basis of the results of the study. For analyzing a scenario of decommissioning, we prepared structured work packages by using the work breakdown structures (WBS) method together with qualitative evaluation of the technologies being applied to work packages located at the bottom (the third level) of the WBS. A calculation model was constructed to evaluate the feasibility of a scenario where fuzzy logic is applied to derive a score of technology performance and TOPSIS is applied for getting a feasibility grade of the scenario from technical performance scoring. As a case study, the model was applied to the debris removal scenario of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant to confirm its applicability. Two scenarios, underwater and in-air debris removal cases, were characterized by extracting the work packages with the lowest feasibility and by obtaining total average scores of the scenarios. It is confirmed that the methodology developed is useful for the scenario evaluation of decommissioning nuclear facilities. (author)

  19. Electromagnetic study on HCCR TBM for ITER major disruption scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ku, Duck Young; Lee, Youngmin; Cho, Seungyon; Ahn, Muyoung [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    Helium Cooled Ceramic Reflector (HCCR) Test Blanket Module (TBM) has been developed in Korea in order to experiment a breeding blanket module in ITER. This TBM will verify the feasibility of tritium self-sufficiency in reactor and the extraction of high-grade heat suitable for electricity generation. Since various loads such as seismic load, electromagnetic (EM) load and heat load significantly affect the soundness of the TBM, a variety of analyses were carried out for design optimization. The EM load is particularly one of main design drivers because large amount of magnetic energy in the plasma are transferred to in-vessel components including the TBM during plasma disruption. Because the TBM is located in equatorial port, major disruption (MD) among various plasma disruption scenarios causes the largest EM loads on the TBM.

  20. Electromagnetic study on HCCR TBM for ITER major disruption scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ku, Duck Young; Lee, Youngmin; Cho, Seungyon; Ahn, Muyoung

    2014-01-01

    Helium Cooled Ceramic Reflector (HCCR) Test Blanket Module (TBM) has been developed in Korea in order to experiment a breeding blanket module in ITER. This TBM will verify the feasibility of tritium self-sufficiency in reactor and the extraction of high-grade heat suitable for electricity generation. Since various loads such as seismic load, electromagnetic (EM) load and heat load significantly affect the soundness of the TBM, a variety of analyses were carried out for design optimization. The EM load is particularly one of main design drivers because large amount of magnetic energy in the plasma are transferred to in-vessel components including the TBM during plasma disruption. Because the TBM is located in equatorial port, major disruption (MD) among various plasma disruption scenarios causes the largest EM loads on the TBM

  1. Study of Near Field Communication Technology in University Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Irene Luque; Miraz, Guillermo Matas; Gómez-Nieto, Miguel Ángel

    2009-08-01

    In this paper we present an introduction to the possibilities of NFC (Near Field Communication) technology in the University environment. NFC is the key for the development of interactive systems where "intelligent" objects interact with the user just only by touching the objects with a NFC device. We support that a University environment with active objects dispatching information and services to the users (students and teachers) can introduce an appropriate environment for the fulfillment of the new Educational European directives. Here, we briefly describe some of the possibilities of the NFC technology and we include an example of the use of NFC through a Smart Poster for a scenario where a Department directory is considered.

  2. Study on radioactive waste management scenarios in regular maintenance of a fusion reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Someya, Youji; Tobita, Kenji; Yanagihara, Satoshi

    2015-01-01

    Low-level radioactive waste is generated in large amounts in the operation of a fusion reactor. For this reason, there are needs for the study of radioactive waste management scenarios, as well as the clarification of the function of waste handling facilities in the design phase. This paper describes the management scenarios with a focus on the radioactive waste generated at the time of scheduled maintenance of a nuclear fusion prototype reactor. Based on the temporal change of the residual heat and dose rate of the blanket and diverter, as the furnace equipment associated with induced radioactivity, management period was determined. At this time, the attenuation rate of dose rate and the like of each device are different. So, if maintenance cycle is established for each device and thus storage area is minimized, the control area can be optimized. Based on the 'principle for minimizing radioactive waste,' the reuse of devices is effective in reducing waste. So, in view of a commercial reactor, research and development is required for the establishment of reuse process under high-dose. Since the commitment to radioactive waste is considered to be an important factor in the future for the social acceptance of nuclear fusion reactor development, comprehensive study including the disposal of waste and the reuse of equipment is important. (A.O.)

  3. The impact of traffic emissions on air quality in the Berlin-Brandenburg region - a case study on cycling scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuik, F.; Lauer, A.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Butler, T. M.

    2016-12-01

    Many European cities continue to struggle with exceedances of NO2 limit values at measurement sites near roads, of which a large contribution is attributed to emissions from traffic. In this study, we explore how urban air quality can be improved with different traffic measures using the example of the Berlin-Brandenburg region. In order to simulate urban background air quality we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) at a horizontal resolution of 1km. We use emission input data at a horizontal resolution of 1km obtained by downscaling TNO-MACC III emissions based on local proxy data including population and traffic densities. In addition we use a statistical approach combining the simulated urban background concentrations with information on traffic densities to estimate NO2 at street level. This helps assessing whether the emission scenarios studied here can lead to significant reductions in NO2 concentrations at street level. The emission scenarios in this study represent a range of scenarios in which car traffic is replaced with bicycle traffic. Part of this study was an initial discussion phase with stakeholders, including policy makers and NGOs. The discussions have shown that the different stakeholders are interested in a scientific assessment of the impact of replacing car traffic with bicycle traffic in the Berlin-Brandenburg urban area. Local policy makers responsible for city planning and implementing traffic measures can make best use of scientific modeling results if input data and scenarios are as realistic as possible. For these reasons, the scenarios cover very idealized optimistic ("all passenger cars are replaced by bicycles") and pessimistic ("all cyclists are replaced by cars") scenarios to explore the sensitivity of simulated urban background air quality to these changes, as well as additional scenarios based on city-specific data to analyze more realistic situations. Of particular interest is how these impact

  4. Environmental sensitivity studies for Gen-IV roadmap DUPIC scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Chang Joon

    2004-03-01

    The environmental effect of the DUPIC (Direct Use of Spent PWR Fuel in CANDU Reactors) fuel cycle, which is considered as one of the partial recycle scenario in Gen-IV roadmap, has been analyzed by using the dynamic analysis method. Through the parametric calculations for the DUPIC fuel cycle deployment time and the fraction of the DUPIC reactors, the environmental effects of the fuel cycle for important parameters such as the amount of spent fuel and the combined amounts of plutonium and minor actinides were estimated and compared to those of the once-through LWR fuel cycle. The results of the sensitivity calculations showed that an early deployment of the DUPIC fuel cycle with a high DUPIC reactor fraction can reduce the accumulation of spent fuel by up to 40%. More important is the associated reduction in the combined amount of plutonium and minor actinides, which may reduce the key repository parameter (long term decay heat). Therefore it is expected that favorable environmental effects will be the outcome of the implementation of the DUPIC fuel cycle

  5. Multimodal UAV detection: study of various intrusion scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hengy, Sebastien; Laurenzis, Martin; Schertzer, Stéphane; Hommes, Alexander; Kloeppel, Franck; Shoykhetbrod, Alex; Geibig, Thomas; Johannes, Winfried; Rassy, Oussama; Christnacher, Frank

    2017-10-01

    Small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are becoming increasingly popular and affordable the last years for professional and private consumer market, with varied capacities and performances. Recent events showed that illicit or hostile uses constitute an emergent, quickly evolutionary threat. Recent developments in UAV technologies tend to bring autonomous, highly agile and capable unmanned aerial vehicles to the market. These UAVs can be used for spying operations as well as for transporting illicit or hazardous material (smuggling, flying improvised explosive devices). The scenario of interest concerns the protection of sensitive zones against the potential threat constituted by small drones. In the recent past, field trials were carried out to investigate the detection and tracking of multiple UAV flying at low altitude. Here, we present results which were achieved using a heterogeneous sensor network consisting of acoustic antennas, small FMCW RADAR systems and optical sensors. While acoustics and RADAR was applied to monitor a wide azimuthal area (360°), optical sensors were used for sequentially identification. The localization results have been compared to the ground truth data to estimate the efficiency of each detection system. Seven-microphone acoustic arrays allow single source localization. The mean azimuth and elevation estimation error has been measured equal to 1.5 and -2.5 degrees respectively. The FMCW radar allows tracking of multiple UAVs by estimating their range, azimuth and motion speed. Both technologies can be linked to the electro-optical system for final identification of the detected object.

  6. Multilingual and Multicultural Task-Based Learning Scenarios: A Pilot Study from the MAGICC Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez, Inma; Pérez-Cavana, María Luisa

    2015-01-01

    In this article we report on the results of a pilot study on the use of task-based multilingual and multicultural professional scenarios for higher education teachers and learners at BA and MA level. The scenarios reflect new learning outcomes and assessment criteria for the presently under-conceptualised domain of communication in multilingual…

  7. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  8. International bioenergy trade. Scenario study on international biomass market in 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heinimoe, J.; Pakarinen, V.; Ojanen, V.; Kaessi, T.

    2007-07-01

    The markets of biomass for energy are developing rapidly and becoming more international. A remarkable increase in the use of biomass for energy needs parallel and positive development in several areas, and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. The main objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020, and based on the scenario process, to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. Two scenario processes were conducted for this study. The first was carried out with a group of Finnish experts and the second involved an international group. A heuristic, semi structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes. The scenario processes reinforced the picture of the future of international biomass and bioenergy markets as a complex and multi layer subject. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The results of the scenario process also opened up new discussion and provided new information and collective views of experts for the purposes of policy makers. An overall view resulting from this scenario analysis are the enormous opportunities relating to the utilisation of biomass as a resource for global energy use in the coming decades. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of technological development to solve global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial

  9. International bioenergy trade. Scenario study on international biomass market in 2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinimoe, J.; Pakarinen, V.; Ojanen, V.; Kaessi, T.

    2007-01-01

    The markets of biomass for energy are developing rapidly and becoming more international. A remarkable increase in the use of biomass for energy needs parallel and positive development in several areas, and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. The main objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020, and based on the scenario process, to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. Two scenario processes were conducted for this study. The first was carried out with a group of Finnish experts and the second involved an international group. A heuristic, semi structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes. The scenario processes reinforced the picture of the future of international biomass and bioenergy markets as a complex and multi layer subject. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The results of the scenario process also opened up new discussion and provided new information and collective views of experts for the purposes of policy makers. An overall view resulting from this scenario analysis are the enormous opportunities relating to the utilisation of biomass as a resource for global energy use in the coming decades. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of technological development to solve global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial

  10. A TWO-PHASE SCENARIO FOR BULGE ASSEMBLY IN {Lambda}CDM COSMOLOGIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Obreja, A.; Dominguez-Tenreiro, R.; Brook, C. [Departamento de Fisica Teorica, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, E-28049 Cantoblanco Madrid (Spain); Martinez-Serrano, F. J.; Domenech-Moral, M.; Serna, A. [Departamento de Fisica y Arquitectura de Computadores, Universidad Miguel Hernandez, E-03202 Elche (Spain); Molla, M. [Departamento de Investigacion Basica, CIEMAT, E-28040 Madrid (Spain); Stinson, G., E-mail: aura.obreja@uam.es [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Astronomie, Koenigstuhl 17, D-69117, Heidelberg (Germany)

    2013-01-20

    We analyze and compare the bulges of a sample of L {sub *} spiral galaxies in hydrodynamical simulations in a cosmological context, using two different codes, P-DEVA and GASOLINE. The codes regulate star formation in very different ways, with P-DEVA simulations inputting low star formation efficiency under the assumption that feedback occurs on subgrid scales, while the GASOLINE simulations have feedback that drives large-scale outflows. In all cases, the marked knee shape in mass aggregation tracks, corresponding to the transition from an early phase of rapid mass assembly to a later slower one, separates the properties of two populations within the simulated bulges. The bulges analyzed show an important early starburst resulting from the collapse-like fast phase of mass assembly, followed by a second phase with lower star formation, driven by a variety of processes such as disk instabilities and/or mergers. Classifying bulge stellar particles identified at z = 0 into old and young according to these two phases, we found bulge stellar sub-populations with distinct kinematics, shapes, stellar ages, and metal contents. The young components are more oblate, generally smaller, more rotationally supported, with higher metallicity and less alpha-element enhanced than the old ones. These results are consistent with the current observational status of bulges, and provide an explanation for some apparently paradoxical observations, such as bulge rejuvenation and metal-content gradients observed. Our results suggest that bulges of L {sub *} galaxies will generically have two bulge populations that can be likened to classical and pseudo-bulges, with differences being in the relative proportions of the two, which may vary due to galaxy mass and specific mass accretion and merger histories.

  11. Scenarios for future agriculture in Finland: a Delphi study among agri-food sector stakeholders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. RIKKONEN

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents alternative scenarios for future agriculture in Finland up to 2025. These scenarios are the results of a large Delphi study carried out among Finnish agri-food sector stakeholders. The Delphi panel members gave their future view on desirable and probable futures. From these two dimensions, three scenarios were elaborated through the future images – the subjective future path and the importance analysis. The scenarios represent a technology optimistic “day-dream agriculture”, a probable future as “industrialised agriculture” and an undesirable future path as “drifting agriculture”. Two mini-scenarios are also presented. They are based on a discontinuity event as an unexpected impact of climate change and an analogy event as an ecological breakdown due to the expansive animal disease epidemics. In both mini-scenarios, the directions of storylines are dramatically changed. The scenarios support strategic planning introducing not only one forecast but alternative outcomes as a basis for future strategy and decisions. In this study the scenarios were constructed to address the opportunities as a desired vision and also the threats as to an undesirable future in the agricultural sector. These results bring to the table a Finnish agri-food expert community view of the future directions of relevant key issues in the agricultural policy agenda.;

  12. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  13. Study of hazardous scenario in service stations. Final report; Etude de scenarios dangereux en stations-service. Rapport final

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-10-01

    The industrial environment group is working at the elaboration of prescriptions applicable to classed installations submitted to declaration (heading 1434: fill in and distribution of inflammable liquids). In this context the group asked the INERIS to realize a list of possible accidents scenario, to quantify the consequences in terms of safety distances, to identify the most pertinent scenario and to examine the particular cases which allow to reduce the safety distances especially the implementing of a fire break wall of two hours. (A.L.B.)

  14. Planning ahead for asteroid and comet hazard mitigation, phase 1: parameter space exploration and scenario modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plesko, Catherine S [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Clement, R Ryan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Weaver, Robert P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bradley, Paul A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Huebner, Walter F [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    The mitigation of impact hazards resulting from Earth-approaching asteroids and comets has received much attention in the popular press. However, many questions remain about the near-term and long-term, feasibility and appropriate application of all proposed methods. Recent and ongoing ground- and space-based observations of small solar-system body composition and dynamics have revolutionized our understanding of these bodies (e.g., Ryan (2000), Fujiwara et al. (2006), and Jedicke et al. (2006)). Ongoing increases in computing power and algorithm sophistication make it possible to calculate the response of these inhomogeneous objects to proposed mitigation techniques. Here we present the first phase of a comprehensive hazard mitigation planning effort undertaken by Southwest Research Institute and Los Alamos National Laboratory. We begin by reviewing the parameter space of the object's physical and chemical composition and trajectory. We then use the radiation hydrocode RAGE (Gittings et al. 2008), Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport (see Clement et al., this conference), and N-body dynamics codes to explore the effects these variations in object properties have on the coupling of energy into the object from a variety of mitigation techniques, including deflection and disruption by nuclear and conventional munitions, and a kinetic impactor.

  15. Soil water balance scenario studies using predicted soil hydraulic parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nemes, A.; Wösten, J.H.M.; Bouma, J.; Várallyay, G.

    2006-01-01

    Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) have become a topic drawing increasing interest within the field of soil and environmental research because they can provide important soil physical data at relatively low cost. Few studies, however, explore which contributions PTFs can make to land-use planning, in

  16. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen......Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...

  17. Research on decommissioning of nuclear facilities 2. Study on optimum scenario using the AHP (Joint research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shibahara, Yuji; Morishita, Yoshitsugu; Ishigami, Tsutomu; Yanagihara, Satoshi; Arita, Yuji

    2013-01-01

    To implement a decommissioning project reasonably, it is necessary and important to calculate project management data beforehand as well as to select an optimum dismantling scenario among various scenarios postulated. Little study on the subject of selecting an optimum scenario has been carried out, and it is one of the most important issues in terms of decision making. In FY 2009, Japan Atomic Energy Agency and University of Fukui launched the joint research of a decision making method which is important to determine a decommissioning plan. The purpose of this research is to formulate a methodology for selecting an optimum dismantling scenario among various scenarios postulated based on calculated results of project management data for FUGEN. Project management data for several dismantling scenarios postulated at FUGEN were evaluated based on actual dismantling work for feedwater heater at FUGEN, and an optimum scenario was discussed using the AHP, one of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Methods. This report describes the results of the joint research in FY 2010. (author)

  18. Scoping Study Investigating PWR Instrumentation during a Severe Accident Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rempe, J. L. [Rempe and Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Knudson, D. L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Lutz, R. J. [Lutz Nuclear Safety Consultant, LLC, Asheville, NC (United States)

    2015-09-01

    significantly exceeded QE limits for extended time periods for the low frequency STSBO sequence evaluated in this study. It is recognized that the core damage frequency (CDF) of the sequence evaluated in this scoping effort would be considerably lower if evaluations considered new FLEX equipment being installed by industry. Nevertheless, because of uncertainties in instrumentation response when exposed to conditions beyond QE limits and alternate challenges associated with different sequences that may impact sensor performance, it is recommended that additional evaluations of instrumentation performance be completed to provide confidence that operators have access to accurate, relevant, and timely information on the status of reactor systems for a broad range of challenges associated with risk important severe accident sequences.

  19. Study on probability distribution of fire scenarios in risk assessment to emergency evacuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu Guanquan; Wang Jinhui

    2012-01-01

    Event tree analysis (ETA) is a frequently-used technique to analyze the probability of probable fire scenario. The event probability is usually characterized by definite value. It is not appropriate to use definite value as these estimates may be the result of poor quality statistics and limited knowledge. Without addressing uncertainties, ETA will give imprecise results. The credibility of risk assessment will be undermined. This paper presents an approach to address event probability uncertainties and analyze probability distribution of probable fire scenario. ETA is performed to construct probable fire scenarios. The activation time of every event is characterized as stochastic variable by considering uncertainties of fire growth rate and other input variables. To obtain probability distribution of probable fire scenario, Markov Chain is proposed to combine with ETA. To demonstrate the approach, a case study is presented.

  20. Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

  1. Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamilton, M.C.; Thekdi, S.A.; Jenicek, E.M.

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources and infrastructure systems for sustainability is complicated by uncertainties in the human and natural environment. Moreover, decisions are further complicated by contradictory views, values, and concerns that are rarely made explicit. Scenario analysis can play...... of emergent conditions and help to avoid regret and belated action. The purpose of this paper is to present several case studies in natural resources and infrastructure systems management where scenario analysis has been used to aide decision making under uncertainty. The case studies include several resource...... and infrastructure systems: (1) water resources (2) land-use corridors (3) energy infrastructure, and (4) coastal climate change adaptation. The case studies emphasize a participatory approach, where scenario analysis becomes a means of incorporating diverse stakeholder concerns and experience. This approach...

  2. Study on the FBR cycle introduction scenario. 4. Evaluation of the FBR cycle introduction scenario from the viewpoints of the fuel cycle requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Kiyoshi; Shiotani, Hiroki; Hirao, Kazunori

    2003-07-01

    This report is intended to explain the outline of the scenario studies on FBR (Fast Breeder Reactor) cycle introduction. Recently, people value the reduction of environmental impact in addition to the recycle of energy resources and the energy security in these scenario studies. This report summarizes the analysis about the necessity of plutonium recycling in LWR (Light water Reactor) from short-term view and about the necessity of FBR cycle introduction from a long-term view in Japan, by comparing 'FBR scenario' with 'LWR once-through scenario' and 'Pu recycle in LWR scenario', from the viewpoints of cumulative uranium demand, spent fuel storage, radioactive waste arising, etc. It becomes clear that the plutonium recycling in LWR has a good effect on the reduction of spent fuel storage and the cumulative natural uranium demand before FBR cycle introduction, from short-term view (20-30 years). On the other hand, this analysis also shows that there is much effect of FBR deployment not only on saving amount of uranium use and energy security but also on reduction of high-level radioactive waste (spent fuels and vitrified waste) and minor actinide arising, from long-term view (100-200 years). (author)

  3. Minor actinides transmutation scenario studies with PWRs, FRs and moderated targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grouiller, J.P.; Pillon, S.; Saint Jean, C. de; Varaine, F.; Leyval, L.; Vambenepe, G.; Carlier, B.

    2003-01-01

    Using current technologies, we have demonstrated in this study that it is theoretically possible to obtain different minor actinide transmutation scenarios with a significant gain on the waste radiotoxicity inventory. The handling of objects with Am+Cm entails the significant increase of penetrating radiation sources (neutron and γ) whatever mixed scenario is envisioned; the PWR and FR scenario involving the recycling of Am + Cm in the form of targets results in the lowest flow. In the light of these outcomes, the detailed studies has allowed to design a target sub assembly with a high fission rate (90%) and define a drawing up of reprocessing diagram with the plant head, the minor actinide separation processes (PUREX, DIAMEX and SANEX). Some technological difficulties appear in manipulating curium, principally in manufacturing where the wet process ('sol-gel') is not acquired for (Am+Cm). (author)

  4. Challenges and opportunities of international biomass market: Findings from a scenario study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heinimoe, J. (Lappeenranta University of Technology, Mikkeli (Finland)); Ojanen, V.; Koessi, T. (Lappeenranta University of Technology, Lappeenranta (Finland))

    2007-07-01

    The markets of biomass are developing rapidly and becoming more international. Although biomass has potential to become a more important source of energy, the remarkable increase in biomass use for energy needs parallel and positive development in several sectors and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. To support the positive development of market and to make the most of the development it is needed to have understanding about the market dynamics. The objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020 and based on the scenario process to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. A heuristic semi structured approach was applied in the scenario processes. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The scenario analysis shows the key issues on the field: global economic growth including the growing need of energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of the technological development to solve the global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for the global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. (orig.)

  5. Combining Climate Scenarios and Risk Management Approach—A Finnish Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riitta Molarius

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts on nature and the environment have been widely discussed and studied. Traditionally, a company’s continuity management is based on risk analysis. There are also attempts to implement scenario-based methods in the risk management procedures of companies. For industrial decision makers, it is vital to acknowledge the impacts of climate change with regards to their adaptation strategies. However, a scenario-based approach is not always the most effective way to analyze these risks. This paper investigates the integration of scenario and risk-based methods for a company’s adaptation planning. It considers the uncertainties of the climate change scenarios and the recognized risks as well as suitable adaptation strategies. The paper presents the results of climate risk analysis prepared for two Finnish hydropower plants. The introduced method was first piloted in 2008 and then again in 2015. The update of the analysis pointed out that at the company level, the climate risks and other risks originating from governmental or political decisions form an intertwined wholeness where the origin of the risk is difficult to outline. It seems that, from the business point of view, the main adaptation strategies suggested by the integrated risk and scenarios approach are those that support buying “safety margins” in new investments and reducing decision time horizons. Both of these adaptation strategies provide an advantage in the circumstances where also political decisions and societal changes have a great effect on decision making.

  6. Comparative scenario study of tropospheric ozone climate interactions using a global model. A 1% global increase rate, the IS92a IPCC scenario and a simplified aircraft traffic increase scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chalita, S [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Service d` Aeronomie; Le Treut, H [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique

    1998-12-31

    Sensitivity studies have been made to establish the relationship between different scenarios of tropospheric ozone increase and radiative forcing. Some aspects of the ozone-climate interactions for past and future scenarios are investigated. These calculations employ IMAGES tropospheric ozone concentrations for a pre-industrial, present and future atmospheres. The averaged last 10 years of the 25-year seasonal integrations were analyzed. The results of this study are preliminary. Ozone forcing is basically different from the CO{sub 2} forcing, for its regional and temporal structured nature and for its rather weak intensity. (R.P.) 14 refs.

  7. Comparative scenario study of tropospheric ozone climate interactions using a global model. A 1% global increase rate, the IS92a IPCC scenario and a simplified aircraft traffic increase scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chalita, S. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Service d`Aeronomie; Le Treut, H. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique

    1997-12-31

    Sensitivity studies have been made to establish the relationship between different scenarios of tropospheric ozone increase and radiative forcing. Some aspects of the ozone-climate interactions for past and future scenarios are investigated. These calculations employ IMAGES tropospheric ozone concentrations for a pre-industrial, present and future atmospheres. The averaged last 10 years of the 25-year seasonal integrations were analyzed. The results of this study are preliminary. Ozone forcing is basically different from the CO{sub 2} forcing, for its regional and temporal structured nature and for its rather weak intensity. (R.P.) 14 refs.

  8. Evaluation of Landscape Impacts and Land Use Change: a Tuscan Case Study for CAP Reform Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iacopo Bernetti

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The study uses information from different sources and on different scales in an integrated set of models in order to analyze possible land use change scenarios arising in response to CAP reform. Five main steps were followed: (1 analysis of past land use changes, (2 multivariate analysis of future land use changes using a neural network time series forecast model (Multi-Layer Perceptron Method, (3 modelization of land use change demand (Markovian Chains Method, (4 allocation of the demand to define transition localization, (5 definition of policy scenarios. The final stage is the comparison of CAP scenarios using a multicriteria decision making approach, in order to supply valuable information to policy makers regarding the possible local effects of key direction changes in CAP.

  9. A study on the safety of spent fuel management. A scenario study on spent fuel management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chun, Kwan Sik; Park, Hyun Soo; Ahn, Jin Soo; Hwang, Joo Ho; Choi, Jong Won; Kim, Yeon Soo; Park, Ju Hwan; Chung, Choong Hwan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Inst., Daeduk (Korea, Republic of)

    1992-03-01

    In order to produce data applicable for the long-term policy making of spent fuel management and to suggest a basic scenario suitable to domestic situation, the pre-conceptual design of reference disposal facilities for the spent fuel and the vitrified high level radioactive waste from its reprocessing, has been performed. From the results of the pre-conceptual study, further research and development areas to accumulate the disposal technology are suggested. In addition, the physico-chemical properties and functional characteristics of domestic bentonite are analyzed to assess its applicability as a buffer material which would play a major role for the safe disposal of highly active waste including spent fuels. (Author).

  10. Making or breaking climate targets : The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Bauer, Nico; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Petermann, Nils; Bosetti, Valentina; Marcucci, Adriana; Otto, Sander; Paroussos, Leonidas; Rao, Shilpa; Arroyo Currás, Tabaré; Ashina, Shuichi; Bollen, Johannes; Eom, Jiyong; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Longden, Thomas; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Sano, Fuminori; Schaeffer, Michiel; Wada, Kenichi; Capros, Pantelis; P. van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2015-01-01

    This study explores a situation of staged accession to a global climate policy regime from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition - the EU or the EU and China - embarks on immediate ambitious

  11. Renewable energy technology portfolio planning with scenario analysis: A case study for Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, T.-Y.; Yu, Oliver S.; Hsu, George Jyh-yih; Hsu, Fang-Ming; Sung, W.-N.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a case study of applying a systematic and proven process of technology portfolio planning with the use of scenario analysis to renewable energy developments in Taiwan. The planning process starts with decision values of technology development based on a survey of society leaders. It then generates, based on expert opinions and literature search, a set of major technology alternatives, which in this study include: wind energy, photovoltaic, bio-energy, solar thermal power, ocean energy, and geothermal energy. Through a committee of technical experts with diversified professional backgrounds, the process in this study next constructs three scenarios ('Season in the Sun', 'More Desire than Energy', and 'Castle in the Air') to encompass future uncertainties in the relationships between the technology alternatives and the decision values. Finally, through a second committee of professionals, the process assesses the importance and risks of these alternative technologies and develops a general strategic plan for the renewable energy technology portfolio that is responsive and robust for the future scenarios. The most important contributions of this paper are the clear description of the systematic process of technology portfolio planning and scenario analysis, the detailed demonstration of their application through a case study on the renewable energy development in Taiwan, and the valuable results and insights gained from the application.

  12. CONSTRAINING JET PRODUCTION SCENARIOS BY STUDIES OF NARROW-LINE RADIO GALAXIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sikora, Marek [Nicolaus Copernicus Astronomical Center, Bartycka 18, 00-716 Warsaw (Poland); Stasinska, Grazyna [LUTH, Observatoire de Paris, CNRS, Universite Paris Diderot, Place Jules Janssen, F-92190 Meudon (France); Koziel-Wierzbowska, Dorota [Astronomical Observatory, Jagiellonian University, ul. Orla 171, 30-244 Krakow (Poland); Madejski, Greg M. [Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Asari, Natalia V., E-mail: sikora@camk.edu.pl [Institute of Astronomy, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0HA (United Kingdom)

    2013-03-01

    We study a large sample of narrow-line radio galaxies (NLRGs) with extended radio structures. Using 1.4 GHz radio luminosities L {sub 1.4}, narrow optical emission line luminosities L {sub [OIII]} and L{sub H{sub {alpha}}}, as well as black hole masses M {sub BH} derived from stellar velocity dispersions measured from the optical spectra obtained with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, we find that (1) NLRGs cover about four decades of the Eddington ratio, {lambda} {identical_to} L {sub bol}/L {sub Edd}{proportional_to}L {sub line}/M {sub BH}; (2) L {sub 1.4}/M {sub BH} strongly correlates with {lambda}; and (3) radio loudness, R{identical_to}L{sub 1.4}/L{sub line}, strongly anti-correlates with {lambda}. A very broad range of the Eddington ratio indicates that the parent population of NLRGs includes both radio-loud quasars (RLQs) and broad-line radio galaxies (BLRGs). The correlations they obey and their high jet production efficiencies favor a jet production model which involves the so-called magnetically choked accretion scenario. In this model, production of the jet is dominated by the Blandford-Znajek mechanism, and the magnetic fields in the vicinity of the central black hole are confined by the ram pressure of the accretion flow. Since large net magnetic flux accumulated in central regions of the accretion flow required by the model can take place only via geometrically thick accretion, we speculate that the massive, 'cold' accretion events associated with luminous emission-line active galactic nucleus can be accompanied by an efficient jet production only if preceded by a hot, very sub-Eddington accretion phase.

  13. Design and development of driving simulator scenarios for road validation studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dols Ruiz, J.F.

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, the number of road-based studies using driving simulators is growing significantly. This allows evaluating controlled situations that otherwise would require disproportionate observations in time and/or cost. The Institute of Design and Manufacturing (IDF) of the Polytechnic University of Valencia (UPV) has developed, in collaboration with the Engineering Research Group Highway (GIIC) of the UPV, a low cost simulator that allows rapid implementation and effectively a new methodology for validation studies of different roads through the implementation in the simulator scenarios of existing roads. This methodology allows the development of new scenarios based on the analysis of a layers-file system. Each layer includes different information from the road, such as mapping, geometry, signaling, aerial photos, etc. The creation of the simulated scenario is very fast based on the geometric design software, making it easier to consulting firms using the system that can evaluate and audit a particular route, obtaining reliable conclusions at minimal cost, even if the road is not actually built. This paper describes the basic structure of the layers generated for developing scenarios and guidelines for the implementation thereof. Finally the application of this methodology to a case of success will be described. (Author)

  14. Selecting Days for Concept and Technology Evaluation in SMART-NAS Test-Bed Scenario Generation, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Crown Consulting, Inc. will investigate and demonstrate methods to enable rapid selection of days for scenario generation in the development and evaluation of Air...

  15. Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study. Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses: Main Text and Appendices A, B, C, D, and F

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plotkin, Steve [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Singh, Margaret [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Patterson, Phil [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Ward, Jake [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Wood, Frances [OnLocation Inc., Vienna, VA (United States); Kydes, Niko [OnLocation Inc., Vienna, VA (United States); Holte, John [OnLocation Inc., Vienna, VA (United States); Moore, Jim [TA Engineering, Inc., Catonsville, MD (United States); Miller, Grant [TA Engineering, Inc., Catonsville, MD (United States); Das, Sujit [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Greene, David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2009-07-22

    This report provides details for Phase 2 of the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study, which compares alternative ways to make significant reductions in oil use and carbon emissions from U.S. light vehicles to 2050. Phase I, completed in 2009, examined the full range of pathways of interest to EERE, with multiple scenarios aimed at revealing the issues and impacts associated with a national effort to reduce U.S. dependence on oil use in transportation. Phase 2 expanded the scope of the analysis by examining the interactive effects of multiple pathways on each other and on oil and feedstock prices, focusing far more on costs; and substantially increasing the number of metrics used to compare pathways and scenarios.

  16. Study of the scenarios for the Cycle 12 of the Unit 1 of the CNLV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castillo, A.; Ortiz, J.J.; Montes, J.L.; Perusquia, R.

    2005-01-01

    In this work the preliminary results of a study of scenarios of it loads of fuel and operation of the Cycle 12 of the Unit 1 of the Laguna Verde power station are presented. Based on the Plan of Energy Use (PUE) for this cycle, they were studied different possibilities, with the idea to satisfy the energy demand under sure performance of the reactor. In this work were contemplated similar fuel assemblies to those that are using at the moment in the Cycle 11 of that unit. The reload proposals using the Haling principle and patterns of control bars with the intelligent technique not exhaustive well-known as taboo search are analyzed. The simulator Cm-Presto was used to evaluate the scenarios. This study even continuous analyzing different options and improving the results. (Author)

  17. Heterogeneous Network Evolution Studies for a Dense Urban High Rise Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanchez, Maria Laura Luque; Maternia, Michal; Vejlgaard, Benny

    2014-01-01

    This paper studies the capability of Long-Term Evolution-Advanced (LTE-A) together with WiFi 802.11ac to accommodate the traffic growths of 80x, 500x and 1000x in a high rise building scenario. It provides a guideline on the configuration of the spectrum and the best deployment options for the ev......This paper studies the capability of Long-Term Evolution-Advanced (LTE-A) together with WiFi 802.11ac to accommodate the traffic growths of 80x, 500x and 1000x in a high rise building scenario. It provides a guideline on the configuration of the spectrum and the best deployment options...

  18. CIEMAT analyses of transition fuel cycle scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Gonzalez-Romero, E.M.

    2010-01-01

    The efficient design of strategies for the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy or the phase-out of this technology is possible after the study of transition scenarios from the current fuel cycle to a future one with advanced technologies and concepts. CIEMAT has participated in numerous fuel cycle scenarios studies for more than a decade and, from some years ago, special attention has been put in the study of transition scenarios. In this paper, the main characteristics of each studied transition scenario are described. The main results and partial conclusions of each scenario are also analyzed. As general conclusions of transition studies, we highlight that the advantages of advanced technologies in transition scenarios can be obtained by countries or regions with sufficiently large nuclear parks, with a long-term implementation of the strategy. For small countries, these advantages are also accessible with an affordable cost, by means of the regional collaboration during several decades. (authors)

  19. Effects of Role-Playing Scenarios on the Self-efficacy of Students in Resisting Against Substance Addiction: A Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karatay, Gülnaz; Gürarslan Baş, Nazan

    2017-01-01

    During the first phases of adolescent development, young people have little self-efficacy and resistance against substance use. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the effectiveness of role-playing scenarios on the self-efficacy of students in resisting substance use. A pre test and post test study design was used with a single group. The study was carried out with 245 secondary school students. The scenario-based training, developed by the researchers, was presented by the school counselors once a week for 4 weeks. For this purpose, a booklet of scenarios was prepared for the teachers. The role-playing scenarios were intended to improve adolescents' abilities to say "no" to substance offers, to prevent them from becoming addicted to certain substances, and to call for help if needed. The data of the study were collected using the Personal Information Form and the Self-Efficacy for Adolescences Protecting Substance Abuse Scale . The obtained data were assessed using percentages, chi-square, t test, and F test in the SPSS software. Results showed that, after the training, the mean score in the Self-Efficacy for Adolescences Protecting Substance Abuse Scale increased significantly (103.20 ± 20.00) compared with before the training (92.11 ± 17.08) ( P < .05). Short-term outcomes of the class-based scenario training were observed to be effective in the development of students' self-efficacy to resist the temptations of substance use.

  20. Geographically explicit urban land use change scenarios for Mega cities: a case study in Tokyo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamagata, Y.; Bagan, H.; Seya, H.; Nakamichi, K.

    2010-12-01

    In preparation for the IPCC 5th assessment report, the international modeling community is developing four Representative Concentration Paths employing the scenarios developed by four different Integrated Assessment Models. These RCPs will be employed as an input to climate models, such as Earth System Models. In these days, the importance of assessment of not only global but also local (city/zone level) impacts of global change has gradually been recognized, thereby downscaling climate models are one of the urgent problems to be solved. Needless to say, reliable downscaling requires spatially high resolution land use change scenarios. So far, there has been proposed a lot of methods for constructing land use change scenarios with considering economic behavior of human, such as agent-based model (e.g., Parker et al., 2001), and land use transport (LUT) model (e.g., Anas and Liu, 2007). The latter approach in particular has widely been applied to actual urban/transport policy; hence modeling the interaction between them is very important for creating reliable land use change scenarios. However, the LUT models are usually built based on the zones of cities/municipalities whose spatial resolutions are too low to derive sensible parameters of the climate models. Moreover, almost all of the works which attempt to build spatially high resolution LUT model employs very small regions as the study area. The objective of this research is deriving various input parameters to climate models such as population density, fractional green vegetation cover, and anthropogenic heat emission with spatially high resolution land use change scenarios constructed with LUT model. The study area of this research is Tokyo metropolitan area, which is the largest urban area in the world (United Nations., 2010). Firstly, this study employs very high ground resolution zones composed of micro districts around 1km2. Secondly, the research attempt to combine remote sensing techniques and LUT models

  1. Study of scenarios of long term management of low-activity long-life wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    This document reports the study of scenarios for the management of different low-activity long-life radioactive wastes with reference to different French legal texts. After a presentation of the legal and technical context, the report presents different existing and projected storages (description and safety principles for the Cires and Aube centres and for the Cigeo project of deep geological storage centre). It addresses the various aspects of radiferous and graphite waste management on a long term: inventory, parcel, waste peculiarities, management scenarios, assessment of storage in SCR. It also addresses the case of other wastes such as bituminous coated wastes, those presenting a reinforced natural radioactivity or residues of uranium conversion processing. The last part presents the main orientations for the project

  2. Study of treatment scenarios for fuel debris removed from Fukushima Daiichi NPS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Washiya, Tadahiro; Yano, Kimihiko; Kaji, Naoya; Yamada, Seiya; Kamiya, Masayoshi

    2015-01-01

    On March 11, 2011, a severe nuclear accident occurred at Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (hereinafter called as F1). After the accident, the Council for the Decommissioning was established, mainly by the government and TEPCO, and a road map for the F1 decommissioning was drawn up. In the road map, the fuel debris removal from the reactors is scheduled to launch around 2020. In this study, the characteristics and technological issues of each potential treatment scenario were extracted, and the scenarios were prioritized in advance of formal evaluations in the future. The preliminary evaluation results show that long term storage and direct disposal have more positive aspects in terms of economic efficiency and radioactive waste generation. On the other hand, stabilizing processing, aqueous processing, and pyrochemical processing have been estimated to have more disadvantages in such aspects. (author)

  3. Climate change streamflow scenarios designed for critical period water resources planning studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, A. F.; Snover, A. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2003-04-01

    Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the US, and the resulting streamflow scenarios will be made freely available on the internet for a large number of sites in the PNW to help defray the costs of including climate change information in other studies.

  4. [Study on strategies of pollution prevention in coastal city of Zhejiang Province based on scenario analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Jin-Ping; Chen, Lü-Jun; Du, Peng-Fei; Qian, Yi

    2013-01-01

    Scenario analysis was used to study the environmental burden in a coastal city of Zhejiang province under different patterns of economic development. The aim of this research is to propose advices on decision making by illustrating how to make emissions reduced by transforming the pattern of economic development in a developed coastal area, which had acquired the level of 70 000 yuan GDP per cap. At first, 18 heavy pollution industries were screened out, by referencing total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Then, a model of scenario analysis and the back-up calculation program were designed to study the sustainable development of the heavy pollution industries. With 2008 and 2015 as the reference year and the target year respectively, emissions of four pollutants mentioned above in the 18 heavy pollution industries in the city were analyzed under six scenarios. The total emissions of 4 pollutants should be reduced to an expectant degree, which is set as the constraint prerequisite of the scenario analysis. At last, some suggestions for decision-making are put forward, which include maintaining a moderate increase rate of GDP around 7%, strengthening the adjustment of economic structure, controlling the increasing rate of industrial added value of the industries with heavy pollution, optimizing the structure of industries with heavy pollution, decreasing the intensity of waste emission by implementing cleaner production to reduce emission produce at the source, and strengthening regulations on the operation of waste treatment plants to further promote the efficiency of waste treatment. Only by implementing such measures mentioned above, can the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide of the 18 industries with heavy pollution in the city be reduced by a 10%, 10%, 5%, and 15% respectively based on the reference year.

  5. Scenario Development and Delphi Application in Life Cycle Assessment for Assessing Environmental Impact of New Technology Case Study: Removal of Wind Turbines Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devina Fitrika Dewi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Certain technology is intended to create eco-efficient products or process or is developed as answer to the recent challenge. This kind of technology consequently can also create another impact therefore it shall be assessed and analyzed.The focus of the study is on assessment method namely Life Cycle Analysis (LCA, Scenario development and Delphi application. The objective is to understand benefits and drawbacks of the combined methodology and observe practicality of its implementation for assessing new technology. The distinctive feature comes from the combination of social and technological foresight (as Delphi application and future studies (as Scenario development which are applied in the environmental assessment of a product (by Life Cycle Analysis.The utilization of LCA-Scenario-Delphi case study as an explanatory example is presented in the Removal Wind Turbines Project by the Danish Energy Agency. The wind turbine is considered new technology with some of it phases are yet to occur, for example: removal of turbines after phase out stage. Technology Assessment by LCA-Scenario-Delphi is complicated procedure, but necessary to validate the results. The drawbacks of this procedure are extensive time it consumes and the dependency on public participation and/or expert willingness to participate. Nonetheless, its advantages are due to its interactive feature; integration of knowledge from different areas of expertise and its assessment’s characteristic which focuses on process.

  6. On the use of a molten salt fast reactor to apply an idealized transmutation scenario for the nuclear phase out.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Merk

    Full Text Available In the view of transmutation of transuranium (TRU elements, molten salt fast reactors (MSFRs offer certain advantages compared to solid fuelled reactor types like sodium cooled fast reactors (SFRs. In the first part these advantages are discussed in comparison with the SFR technology, and the research challenges are analyzed. In the second part cycle studies for the MSFR are given for different configurations--a core with U-238 fertile, a fertile free core, and a core with Th-232 as fertile material. For all cases, the transmutation potential is determined and efficient transmutation performance for the case with thorium as a fertile material as well as for the fertile free case is demonstrated and the individual advantages are discussed. The time evolution of different important isotopes is analyzed. In the third part a strategy for the optimization of the transmutation efficiency is developed. The final aim is dictated by the phase out decision of the German government, which requests to put the focus on the determination of the maximal transmutation efficiency and on an as much as possible reduced leftover of transuranium elements at the end of the reactor life. This minimal leftover is achieved by a two step procedure of a first transmuter operation phase followed by a second deep burning phase. There the U-233, which is bred in the blanket of the core consisting of thorium containing salt, is used as feed. It is demonstrated, that transmutation rates up to more than 90% can be achieved for all transuranium isotopes, while the production of undesired high elements like californium is very limited. Additionally, the adaptations needed for the simulation of a MSFR, and the used tool HELIOS 1.10 is described.

  7. On the use of a molten salt fast reactor to apply an idealized transmutation scenario for the nuclear phase out.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merk, Bruno; Rohde, Ulrich; Glivici-Cotruţă, Varvara; Litskevich, Dzianis; Scholl, Susanne

    2014-01-01

    In the view of transmutation of transuranium (TRU) elements, molten salt fast reactors (MSFRs) offer certain advantages compared to solid fuelled reactor types like sodium cooled fast reactors (SFRs). In the first part these advantages are discussed in comparison with the SFR technology, and the research challenges are analyzed. In the second part cycle studies for the MSFR are given for different configurations--a core with U-238 fertile, a fertile free core, and a core with Th-232 as fertile material. For all cases, the transmutation potential is determined and efficient transmutation performance for the case with thorium as a fertile material as well as for the fertile free case is demonstrated and the individual advantages are discussed. The time evolution of different important isotopes is analyzed. In the third part a strategy for the optimization of the transmutation efficiency is developed. The final aim is dictated by the phase out decision of the German government, which requests to put the focus on the determination of the maximal transmutation efficiency and on an as much as possible reduced leftover of transuranium elements at the end of the reactor life. This minimal leftover is achieved by a two step procedure of a first transmuter operation phase followed by a second deep burning phase. There the U-233, which is bred in the blanket of the core consisting of thorium containing salt, is used as feed. It is demonstrated, that transmutation rates up to more than 90% can be achieved for all transuranium isotopes, while the production of undesired high elements like californium is very limited. Additionally, the adaptations needed for the simulation of a MSFR, and the used tool HELIOS 1.10 is described.

  8. A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

    2015-01-01

    A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

  9. A synthesis on the HTR scenario studies at CEA - HTR2008-58059

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, L.; Greneche, D.

    2008-01-01

    The aim of the studies is to assess the impact of the deployment of an HTR park replacing one part of the current PWR reactors. The other part of the current park is replaced by EPRs. In these scenarios, the annual electricity production is constant at 400 TWhe. This value corresponds roughly to the present nuclear electricity production in France. From 2002 to 2007, an important program study on HTR has been carried out by CEA and AREVA NC under the joint CEA - AREVA NC project 'prospective studies on the management of Plutonium and the back end of the cycle'. This program addresses core physic and scenario studies, and also the back end of the fuel cycle : reprocessing of spent fuel and HTR waste management. Some core physic studies have already been presented in the reference [1]. This paper presents the results of the scenario studies using two concepts: either the standard core of the Gas Turbine Modular Helium Reactor concept (GTMHR) with Uranium or Plutonium fuel, or the Multiple Fuel Rows Core (MFRC) dedicated to the actinide burning. The insertion of a new concept (fuel, reactor, process) must be evaluated in the global electronuclear system with an analysis of the impact on the fuel cycle (Enrichment, Fuel Fabrication, Reactor, Processing, Interim Storage, Waste storage). The scenario studies are used to evaluate different solutions to manage nuclear materials (uranium, plutonium) and wastes (minor actinides and fission products), from the present situation in France (closed cycle with storage of used MOX fuels) until the final equilibrium: mixed nuclear park with EPR and HTR. These studies allow to calculate material flows and inventories of these elements in each step of the fuel cycle. The simulation of transient scenarios from the present situation to the future situation is performed with the COSI code. HTR reactors feature a high flexibility with regard to fuel cycle options. Several versions of core have been investigated, with different type of

  10. Swedish long-term low carbon scenario - Exploratory study on opportunities and barriers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gode, Jenny; Saernholm, Erik; Zetterberg, Lars; Arnell, Jenny; Zetterberg, Therese

    2010-12-15

    In 2009, the Swedish government proposed a vision of reaching zero net emissions of greenhouse gases in the year 2050. However, there are few details on concrete actions after 2020. In the light of the long investment cycles associated with energy, housing, transport infrastructure and heavy industry, we believe that the society now needs to start identifying possible pathways for reaching this vision. The pathways also need to be investigated in terms of their feasibility and consequences. The aim of our study has been to develop and elaborate on one potential future energy scenario where Sweden minimises the use of fossil fuels in 2050 and to identify opportunities and barriers. The scenario we present is one of several possible scenarios and is obviously not a forecast. Our purpose is not to show a likely development, but rather to illustrate, by example, a society that is largely independent of fossil fuels and what would be required to get there. In a next step, more detailed scenarios as well as accurate impact assessments are needed. For example, the impact of high bioenergy utilisation needs to be carefully examined. The results also show several cross-sectoral measures and/or effects that need further study. There is also a need for thorough cost analyses as well as analyses of what is required to implement these measures in practice. We have analysed potential fossil fuel reductions in the sectors industry, residential/service, transports and energy conversion. For these sectors, systematic investigations have been made on measures for replacing fossil fuels, improving energy efficiency and applying new technologies and industrial processes. Our scenario is to a great extent based on existing technologies. In addition to sector specific measures, we have applied cross-sectoral measures such as using industrial surplus heat in the residential sector or forest residues for producing heat and power. Furthermore, we have assumed a system change in

  11. Climate impacts and adaptation in Germany. Phase 1. Regional climate scenarios for Germany. Final report; Klimaauswirkungen und Anpassung in Deutschland. Phase 1. Erstellung regionaler Klimaszenarien fuer Deutschland. Abschlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacob, Daniela; Goettel, Holger; Kotlarski, Sven; Lorenz, Philip; Sieck, Kevin [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie (MPI-M), Hamburg (Germany)

    2008-08-15

    The regional climate scenarios were evaluated using the climate model REMO. The model calculations were actualized and compared with observed data. The validation of the modeling results was performed using data sets concerning the temporal behavior, the precipitation amounts in several altitudes and the analysis of the probability density function of the air temperature. The results of different climate scenarios are discussed for the mean monthly values of precipitation and temperature. The model allows the prediction of the temporal development and number of summer days and extremely hot days. The change of further indices due to the climatic change caused by increasing greenhouse gas emissions is discussed.

  12. Feasibility study on the potential of development of renewable energies for the ZAC de l'Horloge in Romainville. Study of opportunities in renewable energies and definition of energy supply scenarios. Analysis and comparison of energy supply scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-12-01

    A first report proposes an overview of available renewable energy sources (geothermal, solar, and wind energy, green electricity, methanization, wood energy, waste water valorisation, connection to an existing heat network). For each of them, it presents a resource assessment, a discussion of constraints, or, should the occasion occur an overview of local providers (for wood), or an assessment of different options (small and large wind energy installations). It also presents demands made by existing sites on the studied area and at its neighbourhood. Energy supply scenarios are briefly defined. The second report proposes an analysis and a comparison of these scenarios. After a presentation of hypotheses and methodology, scenarios are presented in terms of energy needs, energy production and its relationship with the performance of positive energy buildings, adequacy with resource. Beside a reference scenario, these scenarios are named Dogger, Biomass, Wood, Clustered sectors. Comparison is performed in terms of energetic, economic and environmental assessments

  13. Study of nuclear energy systems and double strata scenarios for minor actinides transmutation in ADS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clavel, J.B.

    2012-01-01

    The French law of 28 June 2006 regarding advanced nuclear waste management requires a scientific assessment to define future industrial strategies. The present PhD thesis was carried in this framework and concerns specifically the research axis of minor actinides transmutation. A high power Accelerator Driven System (ADS) concept is developed at SUBATECH for this purpose. A 1 GeV proton beam feeds three liquid lead-bismuth spallation targets. The Multiple Spallation Target (MUST) ADS reaches the thermal powers up to 1 GW with a high specific power. A nuclear reactor dimensioning method has been developed and applied to different double strata scenarios. In these scenarios, SFR (Sodium Fast Reactors) or PWR (Pressurized Water Reactors) power reactors produce minor actinides that will be transmuted into ADS. In each core (SFR and ADS), the plutonium multi-reprocessing strategy is performed while ADS subcritical core also multi-reprocesses minor actinides. To limit the core reactivity and improve the fuel thermal conductivity, the minor actinides fuel is mixed with MgO inert matrix. Nuclear branches with lead and sodium coolants for the ADS, have been studied for different irradiation times and two transmutation strategies have been assessed: whether whole minor actinides, whether americium only is transmuted. The thesis presents precisely the MUST ADS design methodology and the calculations to get a fuel composition at equilibrium. Then a one cycle evolution is performed and analysed for the fuel and the multiplication factor. Radiotoxicity and thermal power of the waste produced are then compared. Finally, the study of double strata scenarios is performed to analyse the plutonium and minor actinides inventories in cycle and also the waste produced according to the transmutation strategies applied and the first stratum evolution. (author)

  14. Welfare, Prosperity and Quality of the Living Environment. A scenario study for the Netherlands in 2040

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janssen, L.H.J.M.; Okker, V.R.; Schuur, J.

    2006-01-01

    Long-term trends such as the decreasing household size, the ageing population, international migration, economic growth, and increasing personal welfare, will change the Dutch natural and built environment significantly. This national foresight exercise analyses the combined impact of these trends on various aspects of the Dutch urban and rural landscape, including residential and industrial land use, traffic and transport, energy, agriculture, nature and landscape, water safety, and environment and health. Quantitative forecasts illustrate these trends as well as their effect on the natural and built environment. The study assesses the long-term effects of current policy, given the international economic and demographic context of the Netherlands. Its qualitative and quantitative results should serve as a reference for policy-makers involved in spatial planning, housing, natural resources, infrastructure, and the environment. By exploring how land use and various aspects of the living environment may develop on the long run (2040), the study shows when current policy objectives may come under pressure, and which new issues may emerge. The long-term future of the Dutch population and economic development and, consequently, of its natural and built environment is highly dependent on international factors. Two critical factors of uncertainty stand out: (1) to which extent will nations and international trade blocks cooperate and exchange, giving up some of their cultural identity and sovereignty? (2) how will governments balance between market forces and a strong public sector? These international political choices determine four possible scenarios for the Netherlands: Global Economy: emphasis on international cooperation and private responsibilities; Strong Europe: emphasis on international cooperation and public responsibilities; Transatlantic Markets: emphasis on national sovereignty and private responsibilities; and Regional Communities: emphasis on national

  15. Centrifuge workers study. Phase II, completion report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wooten, H.D.

    1994-09-01

    Phase II of the Centrifuge Workers Study was a follow-up to the Phase I efforts. The Phase I results had indicated a higher risk than expected among centrifuge workers for developing bladder cancer when compared with the risk in the general population for developing this same type of cancer. However, no specific agent could be identified as the causative agent for these bladder cancers. As the Phase II Report states, Phase I had been limited to workers who had the greatest potential for exposure to substances used in the centrifuge process. Phase II was designed to expand the survey to evaluate the health of all employees who had ever worked in Centrifuge Program Departments 1330-1339 but who had not been interviewed in Phase I. Employees in analytical laboratories and maintenance departments who provided support services for the Centrifuge Program were also included in Phase II. In December 1989, the Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU), now known as Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE), was contracted to conduct a follow-up study (Phase II). Phase H of the Centrifuge Workers Study expanded the survey to include all former centrifuge workers who were not included in Phase I. ORISE was chosen because they had performed the Phase I tasks and summarized the corresponding survey data therefrom.

  16. Centrifuge workers study. Phase II, completion report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wooten, H.D.

    1994-09-01

    Phase II of the Centrifuge Workers Study was a follow-up to the Phase I efforts. The Phase I results had indicated a higher risk than expected among centrifuge workers for developing bladder cancer when compared with the risk in the general population for developing this same type of cancer. However, no specific agent could be identified as the causative agent for these bladder cancers. As the Phase II Report states, Phase I had been limited to workers who had the greatest potential for exposure to substances used in the centrifuge process. Phase II was designed to expand the survey to evaluate the health of all employees who had ever worked in Centrifuge Program Departments 1330-1339 but who had not been interviewed in Phase I. Employees in analytical laboratories and maintenance departments who provided support services for the Centrifuge Program were also included in Phase II. In December 1989, the Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU), now known as Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE), was contracted to conduct a follow-up study (Phase II). Phase H of the Centrifuge Workers Study expanded the survey to include all former centrifuge workers who were not included in Phase I. ORISE was chosen because they had performed the Phase I tasks and summarized the corresponding survey data therefrom

  17. Environmental performance of construction waste: Comparing three scenarios from a case study in Catalonia, Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, O; Pasqualino, J C; Castells, F

    2010-04-01

    The main objective of this paper is to evaluate environmental impacts of construction wastes in terms of the LIFE 98 ENV/E/351 project. Construction wastes are classified in accordance with the Life Program Environment Directive of the European Commission. Three different scenarios to current waste management from a case study in Catalonia (Spain) have been compared: landfilling, recycling and incineration, and these scenarios were evaluated by means of Life Cycle Assessment. The recommendations of the Catalan Waste Catalogue and the European Waste Catalogue have been taken into account. Also, the influence of transport has been evaluated. Results show that in terms of the Global Warming Potential, the most environmentally friendly treatment was recycling, followed by incineration and lastly landfilling. According to the influence of treatment plants location on the GWP indicator, we observe that incineration and recycling of construction wastes are better than landfilling, even for long distances from the building site to the plants. This is true for most wastes except for the stony types, than should be recycled close to the building site. In summary, data from construction waste of a Catalan case study was evaluated using the well established method of LCA to determine the environmental impacts. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Environmental performance of construction waste: Comparing three scenarios from a case study in Catalonia, Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz, O.; Pasqualino, J.C.; Castells, F.

    2010-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to evaluate environmental impacts of construction wastes in terms of the LIFE 98 ENV/E/351 project. Construction wastes are classified in accordance with the Life Program Environment Directive of the European Commission. Three different scenarios to current waste management from a case study in Catalonia (Spain) have been compared: landfilling, recycling and incineration, and these scenarios were evaluated by means of Life Cycle Assessment. The recommendations of the Catalan Waste Catalogue and the European Waste Catalogue have been taken into account. Also, the influence of transport has been evaluated. Results show that in terms of the Global Warming Potential, the most environmentally friendly treatment was recycling, followed by incineration and lastly landfilling. According to the influence of treatment plants location on the GWP indicator, we observe that incineration and recycling of construction wastes are better than landfilling, even for long distances from the building site to the plants. This is true for most wastes except for the stony types, than should be recycled close to the building site. In summary, data from construction waste of a Catalan case study was evaluated using the well established method of LCA to determine the environmental impacts.

  19. Evaluation of results of Phase B of the German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, B.; Hahn, L.; Sailer, M.

    1989-01-01

    The expert opinion summarizes and discusses the intermediate and the final results of Phase B of the German Risk Study. Emphasis is placed on systems analyses and event scenarios, core melt-down scenarios and effects on the containment, failure of the containment and resulting source terms, radioactivity transport and consequences of accidents, multi-system emergencies and external disturbances, accident management and means of mitigation of damage. (DG) [de

  20. \\title{MARS15 Simulation Studies in the CMS Detector of Some LHC Beam Accident Scenarios}

    CERN Document Server

    Bhat, Pushpalatha C; Striganov, S.I; Singh, Amandeep

    2009-01-01

    \\begin{abstract} The CMS tracker, made of silicon strips and pixels and silicon-based electronics, is vulnerable to effects of radiation exposure during the LHC operation. Of much concern is the potential for damage from a high instantaneous dose to the pixel detectors and electronics located only a few centimeters from the beam in the event of a fast accidental beam loss. One of the worst case scenarios for such a beam loss is an unintended firing of an abort kicker module, referred to as the kicker pre-fire. MARS15 simulation studies of radiation loads in CMS for the kicker pre-fire scenario are described in this paper. It is found that, in a kicker pre-fire accident, in a time span of about 100 ns, the innermost pixel layer may see a radiation dose of about 0.02 Gy \\-- equivalent to a fluence of $\\sim 6\\times 10^{7}$ MIPs/$cm^2$. No discernible damage to the pixel detectors or the electronics were seen at these levels of fluence in recent beam tests. We note that the dose is about 1000 times smaller t...

  1. Describing Long-Term Electricity Demand Scenarios in the Telecommunications Industry: A Case Study of Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yusuke Kishita

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the rapid expansion of information and communication technology (ICT usage, the telecommunications industry is faced with a challenge to promote green ICT toward achieving a low-carbon society. One critical obstacle in planning long-term strategies for green ICT is the uncertainty of various external factors, such as consumers’ lifestyle and technological advancement. To tackle this issue, this paper employs a scenario planning method to analyze electricity consumption in the telecommunications industry, where both changes in various external factors and energy-saving measures are assumed. We propose a model to estimate future electricity consumption of the telecommunications industry using a statistical approach. In a case study, we describe four scenarios that differ in the diffusion of ICT and the technological advancement of ICT equipment in order to analyze the electricity consumption in Japan’s telecommunications industry to 2030. The results reveal that the electricity consumption in 2030 becomes 0.7–1.6-times larger than the 2012 level (10.7 TWh/year. It is also shown that the most effective measures to reduce the electricity consumption include improving the energy efficiency of IP (Internet Protocol communication equipment and mobile communication equipment.

  2. Los Angeles International Airport Runway Incursion Studies: Phase III--Center-Taxiway Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madson, Michael D.

    2004-01-01

    Phase III of the Los Angeles International Airport Runway Incursion Studies was conducted, under an agreement with HNTB Corporation, at the NASA Ames FutureFlight Central (FFC) facility in June 2003. The objective of the study was the evaluation of a new center-taxiway concept at LAX. This study is an extension of the Phase I and Phase II studies previously conducted at FFC. This report presents results from Phase III of the study, in which a center-taxiway concept between runways 25L and 25R was simulated and evaluated. Phase III data were compared objectively against the Baseline data. Subjective evaluations by participating LAX controllers were obtained with regard to workload, efficiency, and safety criteria. To facilitate a valid comparison between Baseline and Phase III data, the same scenarios were used for Phase III that were tested during Phases I and II. This required briefing participating controllers on differences in airport and airline operations between 2001 and today.

  3. Artificial neural network surrogate development of equivalence models for nuclear data uncertainty propagation in scenario studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krivtchik Guillaume

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Scenario studies simulate the whole fuel cycle over a period of time, from extraction of natural resources to geological storage. Through the comparison of different reactor fleet evolutions and fuel management options, they constitute a decision-making support. Consequently uncertainty propagation studies, which are necessary to assess the robustness of the studies, are strategic. Among numerous types of physical model in scenario computation that generate uncertainty, the equivalence models, built for calculating fresh fuel enrichment (for instance plutonium content in PWR MOX so as to be representative of nominal fuel behavior, are very important. The equivalence condition is generally formulated in terms of end-of-cycle mean core reactivity. As this results from a physical computation, it is therefore associated with an uncertainty. A state-of-the-art of equivalence models is exposed and discussed. It is shown that the existing equivalent models implemented in scenario codes, such as COSI6, are not suited to uncertainty propagation computation, for the following reasons: (i existing analytical models neglect irradiation, which has a strong impact on the result and its uncertainty; (ii current black-box models are not suited to cross-section perturbations management; and (iii models based on transport and depletion codes are too time-consuming for stochastic uncertainty propagation. A new type of equivalence model based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN has been developed, constructed with data calculated with neutron transport and depletion codes. The model inputs are the fresh fuel isotopy, the irradiation parameters (burnup, core fractionation, etc., cross-sections perturbations and the equivalence criterion (for instance the core target reactivity in pcm at the end of the irradiation cycle. The model output is the fresh fuel content such that target reactivity is reached at the end of the irradiation cycle. Those models are built and

  4. Energy policy on shaky ground? A study of CCS-scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Bryngelsson, Mårten; Hansson, Anders

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios play an important role for the societal acceptance of CCS. This paper looks into influential reports containing CCS scenarios and analyses results, key assumptions and drivers for CCS' deployment. Significant uncertainties regarding CCS' development were in several cases excluded or marginalized. Despite these shortcomings, scenarios support a massive deployment of CCS and reflect an undivided optimism. If CCS would fail to meet the high expectations a backlash could follow. Indicat...

  5. Energy utilities and environment-related energy services in the year 2008. Scenario study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-05-01

    Insight is given into of the developments in the sector energy distribution companies and the consequences for the demand for energy services. Next, an overview is given of which energy services should be developed to meet the changed needs of the market. Three scenarios have been set up and are discussed in this brochure: (1) a Steady State scenario (unchanged policy of energy distribution companies); (2) Alliance scenario (strategic cooperation between energy distribution companies and retailers and installation businesses); and (3) Autonomous Development scenario (energy distribution companies develop and offer new services)

  6. Simulation supported scenario analysis for water resources planning: a case study in northern italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Facchi, A.; Gandolfi, C.; Ortuani, B.; Maggi, D.

    2003-04-01

    The work presents the results of a comprehensive modelling study of surface and groundwater systems, including the interaction between irrigation and groundwater resources, for the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district, placed in the southern part of the densely-settled Lombardia plain (northern Italy). The area, of approximately 700 km2, has been selected as: a) it is representative of agricultural and irrigation practices in a wide portion of the plain of Lombardia; b) it has well defined hydrogeological borders, represented by the Adda, Po, and Lambro rivers (respectively East, South and West) and by the Muzza canal (North). The objective of the study is to assess the impact of land use and irrigation water availability on the distribution of crop water consumption in space and time, as well as on the groundwater resources in this wide portion of the Lombardia plain. To achieve this goal, a number of realistic management scenarios, currently under discussion with the regional water authority, have been taken into account. A standard 'base case' has been defined to allow comparative analysis of the results of different scenarios. To carry out the research, an integrated, distributed, catchment-scale simulation package, already developed and applied to the study area, has been used. The simulation system is based on the integration of two hydrological models - a conceptual vadose zone model and the groundwater model MODFLOW. An interface performs the explicit coupling in space and time between the two models. A GIS manages all the information relevant to the study area, as well as all the input, the spatially distributed parameters and the output of the system. The simulation package has been verified for the years 1999-2000 using land use derived from remote-sensed images, reported water availability for irrigation, observed water stage in rivers as well as groundwater level in the alluvial aquifer system.

  7. Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

    2015-12-01

    Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk

  8. Experimental investigation of ion cyclotron range of frequencies heating scenarios for ITER's half-field hydrogen phase performed in JET

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lerche, E.; Van Eester, D.; Johnson, T. J.; Hellsten, T.; Ongena, J.; Mayoral, M. L.; Frigione, D.; Sozzi, C.; Calabro, G.; Lennholm, M.; Beaumont, P.; Blackman, T.; Brennan, D.; Brett, A.; Cecconello, M.; Coffey, I.; Coyne, A.; Crombe, K.; Czarnecka, A.; Felton, R.; Giroud, C.; Gorini, G.; Hellesen, C.; Jacquet, P.; Kiptily, V.; Knipe, S.; Krasilnikov, A.; Maslov, M.; Monakhov, I.; Noble, C.; Nocente, M.; Pangioni, L.; Proverbio, I.; Sergienko, G.; Stamp, M.; Studholme, W.; Tardocchi, M.; Vdovin, V.; Versloot, T.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Whitehurst, A.; Wooldridge, E.; Zoita, V.; JET-EFDA Contributors,

    2012-01-01

    Two ion cyclotron range of frequencies (ICRF) heating schemes proposed for the half-field operation phase of ITER in hydrogen plasmas—fundamental H majority and second harmonic 3 He ICRF heating—were recently investigated in JET. Although the same magnetic field and RF frequencies ( f ≈ 42 MHz and f

  9. From Seismic Scenarios to Earthquake Risk Assessment: A Case Study for Iquique, Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, P.; Fortuno, C.; Martin, J. C. D. L. L.; Vasquez, J.

    2015-12-01

    Iquique is a strategic city and economic center in northern Chile, and is located in a large seismic gap where a megathrust earthquake and tsunami is expected. Although it was hit by a Mw 8.2 earthquake on April 1st 2014, which caused moderate damage, geophysical evidence still suggests that there is potential for a larger event, so a thorough risk assessment is key to understand the physical, social, and economic effects of such potential event, and devise appropriate mitigation plans. Hence, Iquique has been selected as a prime study case for the implementation of a risk assessment platform in Chile. Our study integrates research on three main elements of risk calculations: hazard evaluation, exposure model, and physical vulnerabilities. To characterize the hazard field, a set of synthetic seismic scenarios have been developed based on plate interlocking and the residual slip potential that results from subtracting the slip occurred during the April 1st 2014 rupture fault mechanism, obtained using InSAR+GPS inversion. Additional scenarios were developed based of the fault rupture model of the Maule 2010 Mw 8.8 earthquake and on the local plate locking models in northern Chile. These rupture models define a collection of possible realizations of earthquake geometries parameterized in terms of critical variables like slip magnitude, rise time, mean propagation velocity, directivity, and other, which are propagated to obtain a hazard map for Iquique (e.g. PGA, PGV, PDG). Furthermore, a large body of public and local data was used to construct a detailed exposure model for Iquique, including aggregated building count, demographics, essential facilities, and lifelines. This model together with the PGA maps for the April 1st 2014 earthquake are used to calibrate HAZUS outputs against observed damage, and adjust the fragility curves of physical systems according to more detailed analyses of typical Chilean building types and their structural properties, plus historical

  10. Study of 'inadvertent human intrusion or rare natural event scenarios' for sub-surface disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakatani, Takayoshi; Ishitoya, Kimihide; Funabashi, Hideyuki; Sugaya, Toshikatsu; Sone, Tomoyuki; Shimada, Hidemitsu; Nakai, Kunihiro

    2010-03-01

    Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) is making preparations for the sub-surface disposal of radioactive wastes, in an integrated fashion according to the properties of the waste material regardless of the generators or waste sources. In this study, 'Inadvertent Human Intrusion or Rare Natural Event Scenarios' of 'Three Types scenarios' was considered according to the standard of the Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ) on the sub-surface disposal system that was based on 'Basic Policy for Safety Regulation Concerning Land Disposal of Low-Level Radioactive Waste (Interim Report)' by Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan (NSC). Selection of the assessed scenarios, development of the assessment tool and preliminary exposure dose assessment for general public were conducted. Among the assessed scenarios, the exposure dose of 'well water drinking scenario' was the highest under the very conservative assessment condition. This scenario assumed that the groundwater in Excavation Disturbed Zone (EDZ) was directly used as drinking water without any dilution. Although this was very conservative condition and the result exceeded 10 mSv/y, it stayed under the upper limit of standard dose value for 'Inadvertent Human Intrusion or Rare Natural Event Scenarios' (10 - 100 mSv/y). (author)

  11. Study on the water related disaster risks using the future socio-economic scenario in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiguchi, M.; Hatono, M.; Ikeuchi, H.; Nakamura, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, flood risks in the present and the end of the 21st century in Asia are estimated using a future socio-economic scenario. Using the runoff data of 7 GCMs (RCP 8.5) of CMIP5, the river discharge, inundation area, and inundation depth are calculated for the assessment of flood risk. Finally, the flood risk is estimated using a function of damage. The flood frequency in the end of the 21st century in Asia tends to increase. Inundation area in Japan, Taiwan, and Kyrgyz is almost unchanged. At the same time, that in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Laos, and Myanmar reached about 1.4-1.6 times compared to present. Damage cost is largely influenced by economic growth, however, we show that it is important that we distinguish the influence of climate change from economic development and evaluate it when we think about an adaptation.

  12. Studying the sensitivity of monotop probes to compressed supersymmetric scenarios at the LHC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuks, Benjamin; Richardson, Peter; Wilcock, Alexandra

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the sensitivity of the Large Hadron Collider to supersymmetric setups using monotop probes in which the signal is a single top quark produced in association with missing transverse energy. Our prospective study relies on Monte Carlo simulations of 300 fb -1 of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 14 TeV and considers both leptonic and hadronic monotop decays. We present analysis strategies sensitive to regions of the supersymmetric parameter space which feature small superparticle mass splittings and illustrate their strengths in the context of a particular set of benchmark scenarios. Finally, we compare the regions of parameter space expected to be accessible with monotops probes during the next run of the LHC to the reach of more traditional search strategies employed by the ATLAS and CMS collaborations, where available. (orig.)

  13. Studying the sensitivity of monotop probes to compressed supersymmetric scenarios at the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Fuks, Benjamin; Wilcock, Alexandra

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the sensitivity of the Large Hadron Collider to supersymmetric setups using monotop probes in which the signal is a single top quark produced in association with missing transverse energy. Our prospective study relies on Monte Carlo simulations of 300 invfb of proton- proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 14 TeV and considers both leptonic and hadronic monotop decays. We present analysis strategies sensitive to regions of the supersymmetric parameter space which feature small superparticle mass splittings and illustrate their strengths in the context of a particular set of benchmark scenarios. Finally, we compare the regions of parameter space expected to be accessible with monotops probes during the next run of the LHC to the reach of more traditional search strategies employed by the ATLAS and CMS collaborations, where available.

  14. Multi-path transportation futures study : vehicle characterization and scenario analyses.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems; TA Engineering; ORNL

    2009-12-03

    Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance - and uncertainty - of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). This Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of 'what if' questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

  15. Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies; Etude detaillee des scenarios de transmutation faisant appel aux technologies actuelles pour les reacteurs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-07-01

    This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

  16. Research study for extremely unlikely scenario of high level waste disposal: Part 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohkubo, Hiroo

    1999-02-01

    In this research, first, event and process relevant to the key words (or scenario initiator) such as volcanism have been identified and, especially a middle-scale eruption scenario including pyroclastic flows has been analyzed as the catastrophic scenario, which inspires ordinary people to have tremendous concern. Secondly, based upon the characteristic events and processes of each scenario considered in the above and through the research of existing model of such risk, quantitative concept (release amount magnitude, release mode, release form, frequency of release, probability etc.) and impact on repository system, facility and environment have been analyzed, defended and defined. Model which can assess and analyze such impact has been built. Using these models, risks directly or indirectly caused by HLW repository have been calculated. Finally, the process for assessing the consequence of volcanism scenario and its risk calculated by the model developed in the above have been visualized, and presented by comparing with other risks. (author)

  17. What scenario studies tell about security of energy supply in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lako, P.; Jansen, J.C.

    2001-06-01

    A technical fact-finding study on security of energy supply has been performed from the European point of view and from the point of view of the Netherlands. A brief assessment is presented of fossil fuel resources. Based on data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and other literature, the reserves/production ratio of conventional and unconventional oil is estimated at approximately 200 years. Based on the same USGS data, the reserves/production ratio of conventional natural gas is estimated at 190 years. The unconventional gas resources are extremely large. However, environmental damage has to be prevented. The amount of recoverable resources will remain a question mark for the time being. The world's proved recoverable coal reserves amount to a reserves/production ratio of 230 years. All in all, oil remains a strategic fossil fuel, whereas the supply of natural gas seems to be more well-balanced and the supply of coal is more secure than both of oil and gas. The so-called Shared analysis project, performed by a number of research institutes in the EU, gives useful points of departure for energy policy formulation. However, the results of notably the reference scenario and to a lesser extent its variants in terms of primary energy use, CO2 emissions, and the EU's import dependence for fossil fuels have to be regarded carefully. A similar picture arises from IEA's World Energy Outlook 2000. The 'Out-look' gives due attention to OECD Europe's dependence on imported oil and gas. The share of oil imports is due to rise from 32% in 1990 to 80% in 2020. Due to a projected steady growth of gas consumption, import dependence with respect to natural gas is due to rise from 34% in 1997 to about 65% in 2020. In the scenarios developed by CPB, in collaboration with AVV, ECN, and RIVM, in 1997, the share of natural gas in total primary energy demand is projected to increase to 50-55% in all of the scenarios. In the most energy intensive scenarios, natural gas is

  18. Magnetohydrodynamic modes analysis and control of Fusion Advanced Studies Torus high-current scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Villone, F.; Mastrostefano, S. [Euratom-ENEA-CREATE Ass., DIEI, Univ. di Cassino e Lazio Merid., Cassino (Italy); Calabrò, G.; Vlad, G.; Crisanti, F.; Fusco, V. [C. R. Frascati, Euratom-ENEA Ass., Via E. Fermi 45, 00044 Frascati (Italy); Marchiori, G.; Bolzonella, T.; Marrelli, L.; Martin, P. [Cons. RFX, Euratom-ENEA-RFX Ass., Corso Stati Uniti 4, 35127 Padova (Italy); Liu, Y. Q. [Euratom/CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Mantica, P. [IFP-CNR, Euratom-ENEA-CNR Ass. Via Cozzi 53, 20125 Milano (Italy)

    2014-08-15

    One of the main FAST (Fusion Advanced Studies Torus) goals is to have a flexible experiment capable to test tools and scenarios for safe and reliable tokamak operation, in order to support ITER and help the final DEMO design. In particular, in this paper, we focus on operation close to a possible border of stability related to low-q operation. To this purpose, a new FAST scenario has then been designed at I{sub p} = 10 MA, B{sub T} = 8.5 T, q{sub 95} ≈ 2.3. Transport simulations, carried out by using the code JETTO and the first principle transport model GLF23, indicate that, under these conditions, FAST could achieve an equivalent Q ≈ 3.5. FAST will be equipped with a set of internal active coils for feedback control, which will produce magnetic perturbation with toroidal number n = 1 or n = 2. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) mode analysis and feedback control simulations performed with the codes MARS, MARS-F, CarMa (both assuming the presence of a perfect conductive wall and using the exact 3D resistive wall structure) show the possibility of the FAST conductive structures to stabilize n = 1 ideal modes. This leaves therefore room for active mitigation of the resistive mode (down to a characteristic time of 1 ms) for safety purposes, i.e., to avoid dangerous MHD-driven plasma disruption, when working close to the machine limits and magnetic and kinetic energy density not far from reactor values.

  19. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  20. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  1. Behavior of wet precast beam column connections under progressive collapse scenario: an experimental study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nimse, Rohit B.; Joshi, Digesh D.; Patel, Paresh V.

    2014-12-01

    Progressive collapse denotes a failure of a major portion of a structure that has been initiated by failure of a relatively small part of the structure such as failure of any vertical load carrying element (typically columns). Failure of large part of any structure will results into substantial loss of human lives and natural resources. Therefore, it is important to prevent progressive collapse which is also known as disproportionate collapse. Nowadays, there is an increasing trend toward construction of buildings using precast concrete. In precast concrete construction, all the components of structures are produced in controlled environment and they are being transported to the site. At site such individual components are connected appropriately. Connections are the most critical elements of any precast structure, because in past major collapse of precast structure took place because of connection failure. In this study, behavior of three different 1/3rd scaled wet precast beam column connections under progressive collapse scenario are studied and its performance is compared with monolithic connection. Precast connections are constructed by adopting different connection detailing at the junction by considering reinforced concrete corbel for two specimens and steel billet for one specimen. Performance of specimen is evaluated on the basis of ultimate load carrying capacity, maximum deflection and deflection measured along the span of the beam. From the results, it is observed that load carrying capacity and ductility of precast connections considered in this study are more than that of monolithic connections.

  2. Propositions of public policy measures for a low-carbon scenario. Study synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vincent, Isabelle; Bodiguel, Aude; Callonnec, Gael; Ransquin, Johan; Marchal, David; Cheverry, Marc; Guermont-Bernardi, Catherine; Nauleau, Marie-Laure; Parrouffe, Jean-Michel; Mousset, Jerome; Bardinal, Marc; Marion, Roland; Gourdon, Thomas; Streiff, Frederic; Barbusse, Stephane; Dore, Nicolas; Sanna, Daniela; Eglin, Thomas; Cairey-Remonnay, Michel; Bastide, Guillaume; Paulou, Julien; Leblanc, Clement; Suaud, Charlotte; Cabanne, Isabelle; Doudnikoff, Marjorie; Vergez, Antonin; Domergue, Silvano; Fragnol, Ludovic; Brender, Pierre; Perrissin Fabert, Baptiste; Bringault, Anne; Jedliczka, Marc; Duffes, Thomas; Bureau, Dominique; Perrissin Fabert, Baptiste; Dumas, Gerald; Lepee, Jerome; Bailly, Boris; Sudries, Laura; Mairet, Nicolas; Remontet, Lucas; Correia, Leslie; Briand-Boucher, Vincent

    2017-08-01

    As three scenarios had been elaborated in view of the Paris COP21, this report more particularly addresses the third of them, i.e. the so-called AMS2 scenario which contains a set of additional measures, including those defined in the French law on energy transition for a green growth (LTECV). A first part analyses this scenario: objectives related to the residential sector, to the tertiary sector, to the transport sector, to the industrial sector, to the agriculture sector, and to the electric power sector, carbon component of consumption domestic taxes. The report then outlines that this adjusted version of the AMS2 scenario does not fit France's low carbon trajectory any longer, and thus needs additional measures. It discusses the assessment of greenhouse gas emission benefits, and identifies and discusses clusters of measures for the different sectors (residential, tertiary, transport, industrial, agriculture, energy)

  3. Virtual screening applications: a study of ligand-based methods and different structure representations in four different scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristozov, Dimitar P; Oprea, Tudor I; Gasteiger, Johann

    2007-01-01

    Four different ligand-based virtual screening scenarios are studied: (1) prioritizing compounds for subsequent high-throughput screening (HTS); (2) selecting a predefined (small) number of potentially active compounds from a large chemical database; (3) assessing the probability that a given structure will exhibit a given activity; (4) selecting the most active structure(s) for a biological assay. Each of the four scenarios is exemplified by performing retrospective ligand-based virtual screening for eight different biological targets using two large databases--MDDR and WOMBAT. A comparison between the chemical spaces covered by these two databases is presented. The performance of two techniques for ligand--based virtual screening--similarity search with subsequent data fusion (SSDF) and novelty detection with Self-Organizing Maps (ndSOM) is investigated. Three different structure representations--2,048-dimensional Daylight fingerprints, topological autocorrelation weighted by atomic physicochemical properties (sigma electronegativity, polarizability, partial charge, and identity) and radial distribution functions weighted by the same atomic physicochemical properties--are compared. Both methods were found applicable in scenario one. The similarity search was found to perform slightly better in scenario two while the SOM novelty detection is preferred in scenario three. No method/descriptor combination achieved significant success in scenario four.

  4. Scenario Analysis on Climate Change Impacts of Urban Land Expansion under Different Urbanization Patterns: A Case Study of Wuhan Metropolitan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinli Ke

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban land expansion plays an important role in climate change. It is significant to select a reasonable urban expansion pattern to mitigate the impact of urban land expansion on the regional climate in the rapid urbanization process. In this paper, taking Wuhan metropolitan as the case study area, and three urbanization patterns scenarios are designed to simulate spatial patterns of urban land expansion in the future using the Partitioned and Asynchronous Cellular Automata Model. Then, simulation results of land use are adjusted and inputted into WRF (Weather Research and Forecast model to simulate regional climate change. The results show that: (1 warming effect is strongest under centralized urbanization while it is on the opposite under decentralized scenario; (2 the warming effect is stronger and wider in centralized urbanization scenario than in decentralized urbanization scenario; (3 the impact trends of urban land use expansion on precipitation are basically the same under different scenarios; (4 and spatial distribution of rainfall was more concentrated under centralized urbanization scenario, and there is a rainfall center of wider scope, greater intensity. Accordingly, it can be concluded that decentralized urbanization is a reasonable urbanization pattern to mitigate climate change in rapid urbanization period.

  5. Application of ECH to the Study of Transport in ITER Baseline Scenario-like Discharges in DIII-D

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pinsker R.I.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent DIII-D experiments in the ITER Baseline Scenario (IBS have shown strong increases in fluctuations and correlated reduction of confinement associated with entering the electron-heating-dominated regime with strong electron cyclotron heating (ECH. The addition of 3.2 MW of 110 GHz EC power deposited at ρ∼0.42 to IBS discharges with ∼3 MW of neutral beam injection causes large increases in low-k and medium-k turbulent density fluctuations observed with Doppler backscatter (DBS, beam emission spectroscopy (BES and phase-contrast imaging (PCI diagnostics, correlated with decreases in the energy, particle, and momentum confinement times. Power balance calculations show the electron heat diffusivity χe increases significantly in the mid-radius region 0.4<ρ<0.8, which is roughly the same region where the DBS and BES diagnostics show the increases in turbulent density fluctuations. Confinement of angular momentum is also reduced during ECH. Studies with the TGYRO transport solver show that the model of turbulent transport embodied in the TGLF code quantitatively reproduces the measured transport in both the neutral beam (NB-only and in the NB plus EC cases. A simple model of the decrease in toroidal rotation with EC power is set forth, which exhibits a bifurcation in the rotational state of the discharge.

  6. Experimental studies of the quantum chromodynamics phase ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2015-05-06

    BES) ... Experimental studies of the QCD phase diagram at the STAR experiment .... However, the observed difference between v2 of particles and antiparticles could .... The grey band at the right corresponds to systematic.

  7. A scenario study of seismically induced landsliding in Seattle using broadband synthetic seismograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allstadt, Kate E.; Vidale, John E.; Frankel, Arthur D.

    2013-01-01

    We demonstrate the value of utilizing broadband synthetic seismograms to assess regional seismically induced landslide hazard. Focusing on a case study of an Mw 7.0 Seattle fault earthquake in Seattle, Washington, we computed broadband synthetic seismograms that account for rupture directivity and 3D basin amplification. We then adjusted the computed motions on a fine grid for 1D amplifications based on the site response of typical geologic profiles in Seattle and used these time‐series ground motions to trigger shallow landsliding using the Newmark method. The inclusion of these effects was critical in determining the extent of landsliding triggered. We found that for inertially triggered slope failures modeled by the Newmark method, the ground motions used to simulate landsliding must have broadband frequency content in order to capture the full slope displacement. We applied commonly used simpler methods based on ground‐motion prediction equations for the same scenario and found that they predicted far fewer landslides if only the mean values were used, but far more at the maximum range of the uncertainties, highlighting the danger of using just the mean values for such methods. Our results indicate that landsliding triggered by a large Seattle fault earthquake will be extensive and potentially devastating, causing direct losses and impeding recovery. The high impact of landsliding predicted by this simulation shows that this secondary effect of earthquakes should be studied with as much vigor as other earthquake effects.

  8. Study of impurity effects on CFETR steady-state scenario by self-consistent integrated modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Nan; Chan, Vincent S.; Jian, Xiang; Li, Guoqiang; Chen, Jiale; Gao, Xiang; Shi, Shengyu; Kong, Defeng; Liu, Xiaoju; Mao, Shifeng; Xu, Guoliang

    2017-12-01

    Impurity effects on fusion performance of China fusion engineering test reactor (CFETR) due to extrinsic seeding are investigated. An integrated 1.5D modeling workflow evolves plasma equilibrium and all transport channels to steady state. The one modeling framework for integrated tasks framework is used to couple the transport solver, MHD equilibrium solver, and source and sink calculations. A self-consistent impurity profile constructed using a steady-state background plasma, which satisfies quasi-neutrality and true steady state, is presented for the first time. Studies are performed based on an optimized fully non-inductive scenario with varying concentrations of Argon (Ar) seeding. It is found that fusion performance improves before dropping off with increasing {{Z}\\text{eff}} , while the confinement remains at high level. Further analysis of transport for these plasmas shows that low-k ion temperature gradient modes dominate the turbulence. The decrease in linear growth rate and resultant fluxes of all channels with increasing {{Z}\\text{eff}} can be traced to impurity profile change by transport. The improvement in confinement levels off at higher {{Z}\\text{eff}} . Over the regime of study there is a competition between the suppressed transport and increasing radiation that leads to a peak in the fusion performance at {{Z}\\text{eff}} (~2.78 for CFETR). Extrinsic impurity seeding to control divertor heat load will need to be optimized around this value for best fusion performance.

  9. An empirical study of DSRC V2V performance in truck platooning scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Song Gao

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Among many safety applications enabled by Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC, truck platooning provides many incentives to commercial companies. This paper studies DSRC Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V performance in truck platooning scenarios through real-world experiments. Commercial DSRC equipments and semi-trailer trucks are used in this study. We mount one DSRC antenna on each side of the truck. One set of dynamic tests and a few sets of static tests are conducted to explore DSRC behaviors under different situations. From the test results, we verified some of our speculations. For example, hilly roads can affect delivery ratio and antennas mounted on opposite sides of a truck can suffer from low delivery ratio at curved roads. In addition, we also found that antennas can sometimes suffer from low delivery ratio even when the trucks are on straight roads, possibly due to reflections from the nearby terrain. Fortunately, the delivery ratio can be greatly improved by using the two side antennas alternately.

  10. A multinational randomised study comparing didactic lectures with case scenario in a severe sepsis medical simulation course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chih-Huang; Kuan, Win-Sen; Mahadevan, Malcolm; Daniel-Underwood, Lynda; Chiu, Te-Fa; Nguyen, H Bryant

    2012-07-01

    Medical simulation has been used to teach critical illness in a variety of settings. This study examined the effect of didactic lectures compared with simulated case scenario in a medical simulation course on the early management of severe sepsis. A prospective multicentre randomised study was performed enrolling resident physicians in emergency medicine from four hospitals in Asia. Participants were randomly assigned to a course that included didactic lectures followed by a skills workshop and simulated case scenario (lecture-first) or to a course that included a skills workshop and simulated case scenario followed by didactic lectures (simulation-first). A pre-test was given to the participants at the beginning of the course, post-test 1 was given after the didactic lectures or simulated case scenario depending on the study group assignment, then a final post-test 2 was given at the end of the course. Performance on the simulated case scenario was evaluated with a performance task checklist. 98 participants were enrolled in the study. Post-test 2 scores were significantly higher than pre-test scores in all participants (80.8 ± 12.0% vs 65.4 ± 12.2%, pdidactic lectures followed by simulation experience.

  11. Projection for new city future scenarios – A case study for Kuwait

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nayef Alghais

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The creation of new cities is a planning approach adopted in several regions around the world, in order to accommodate urban growth. New cities are typically constructed according to well-thought out, centralised plans in areas without any prior development. However, whether the development of these new cities is able to address existing urban issues more effectively than traditional methods such as intensification, is currently an unanswered research question. Several Arabian Gulf countries, such as Kuwait are considering the construction of new cities to address urban issues, specifically the traffic congestion and housing shortages. In Kuwait, the master plan for these construction projects was developed solely by state authorities without any public participation or urban modelling that may have provided a more well-rounded view of the potential impacts and effectiveness.This paper aims to address these research opportunities of investigating the effectiveness of new cities in addressing traffic congestion and housing shortage, as well as the potential to integrate public opinions in urban development in the form of a model. Towards that end, the study proposes an Agent Based Model (ABM that will allow simulating the population distribution and urban growth impacts of new cities in Kuwait by 2050. The methodology involves collecting primary data via interviewing the key government stakeholders of urban development and surveying the residents in order to collect the model inputs. In Kuwait's society, citizens and non-citizens form two distinct resident groups with often very diverse needs and lifestyles; hence the survey responses will differentiate between them. The data from the interviews and surveys from both resident groups will be incorporated as agent behaviours in the ABM. The simulations examine a multitude of scenarios for the new cities, involving construction delays and infrastructure project delays. The results indicate that the

  12. Study and Validation of Eavesdropping Scenarios over a Visible Light Communication Channel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Jimenez, Rafael

    2017-01-01

    The security and privacy provided by Visible Light Communication (VLC) technologies is an area that has been slightly addressed due to the misconception that, since light does not go through solid objects like walls, VLC-based communications cannot be eavesdropped on by outside observers. As an upcoming technology, VLC is expected to be used in multiple environments were, due to radio frequency RF overuse or limitations, RF solutions cannot or should not be employed. In this work, we study the eavesdropping characteristics of a VLC-based communication. To evaluate these concerns, a two-step process was followed. First, several simulations of a standardly used scenario were run. Later on, experimental tests were performed. Following those tests, the results of the simulations and the experimental tests were analyzed. The results of these simulations and tests seemed to indicate that VLC channels can be eavesdropped on without considerable difficulties. Furthermore, the results showed that sniffing attacks could be performed from areas outside the expected coverage of the VLC infrastructure. Finally, the use of the simulation such as the one implemented in this work to recognize places from which sniffing is possible helps determine the risk for eavesdropping that our VLC-based network has. PMID:29160800

  13. Scenario-based electric bus operation: A case study of Putrajaya, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lay Eng Teoh

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Globally, transportation sector has emerged as one of the major sources of air pollution. Correspondingly, green mobility (with electric bus is gaining increasing attention as an essential step to mitigate emission concern. As such, a proper electric bus network design and fleet planning is important especially for bus operator to acquire an adequate number of electric bus, right on time, in order to operate electric bus system viably. Thus, this paper aims to examine the possibility to operate electric bus as a replacement for the conventional bus operation (with natural gas buses for the study area in Putrajaya, Malaysia. In order to determine a proper-designed electric bus operating system in terms of electric bus route, service frequency and quantity, the proposed methodology is developed with the aid of a traffic modeling software to cater various scenarios. Based on the existing (conventional traffic and transit system in Putrajaya, the developed electric bus operating model is calibrated accordingly by considering various operational concerns including battery capacity and charging facility. The resultant findings revealed that the developed electric bus operating system in Putrajaya outperforms the conventional bus operation, not only in generating a higher profit margin for the bus operator, but also satisfying the passengers in a better manner (by carrying more passengers per unit of bus with a lower energy consumption.

  14. Simulating forensic casework scenarios in experimental studies: The generation of footwear marks in blood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McElhone, Rachel L; Meakin, Georgina E; French, James C; Alexander, Tracy; Morgan, Ruth M

    2016-07-01

    A study was designed to investigate the effects of external variables, including blood type, flooring surface, footwear tread depth and blood dryness, on the appearance of blood-based footwear marks, with particular reference to simulating a specific casework scenario. Results showed that footwear marks left in human blood tended to be of greater quality than those in equine blood, highlighting a potential issue in applying data generated with equine blood to human bloodstains in casework. Footwear tread effects were also dependent on blood type, but the type of flooring surface did not affect the appearance of the mark. Under some conditions, as the blood dried, the amount of detail retained from footwear contact decreased. These results provide the beginnings of an empirical evidence base to allow a more accurate interpretation of blood-based footwear marks in forensic casework. When applied to a disputed bloodstain in a specific case, these results also demonstrate the importance of such experiments in narrowing the range of explanations possible in the interpretation of forensic evidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Study and Validation of Eavesdropping Scenarios over a Visible Light Communication Channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Marin-Garcia

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The security and privacy provided by Visible Light Communication (VLC technologies is an area that has been slightly addressed due to the misconception that, since light does not go through solid objects like walls, VLC-based communications cannot be eavesdropped on by outside observers. As an upcoming technology, VLC is expected to be used in multiple environments were, due to radio frequency RF overuse or limitations, RF solutions cannot or should not be employed. In this work, we study the eavesdropping characteristics of a VLC-based communication. To evaluate these concerns, a two-step process was followed. First, several simulations of a standardly used scenario were run. Later on, experimental tests were performed. Following those tests, the results of the simulations and the experimental tests were analyzed. The results of these simulations and tests seemed to indicate that VLC channels can be eavesdropped on without considerable difficulties. Furthermore, the results showed that sniffing attacks could be performed from areas outside the expected coverage of the VLC infrastructure. Finally, the use of the simulation such as the one implemented in this work to recognize places from which sniffing is possible helps determine the risk for eavesdropping that our VLC-based network has.

  16. Numerical study of neutron beam divergence in a beam-fusion scenario employing laser driven ions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alejo, A.; Green, A.; Ahmed, H.; Robinson, A. P. L.; Cerchez, M.; Clarke, R.; Doria, D.; Dorkings, S.; Fernandez, J.; McKenna, P.; Mirfayzi, S. R.; Naughton, K.; Neely, D.; Norreys, P.; Peth, C.; Powell, H.; Ruiz, J. A.; Swain, J.; Willi, O.; Borghesi, M.; Kar, S.

    2016-09-01

    The most established route to create a laser-based neutron source is by employing laser accelerated, low atomic-number ions in fusion reactions. In addition to the high reaction cross-sections at moderate energies of the projectile ions, the anisotropy in neutron emission is another important feature of beam-fusion reactions. Using a simple numerical model based on neutron generation in a pitcher-catcher scenario, anisotropy in neutron emission was studied for the deuterium-deuterium fusion reaction. Simulation results are consistent with the narrow-divergence (∼ 70 ° full width at half maximum) neutron beam recently served in an experiment employing multi-MeV deuteron beams of narrow divergence (up to 30° FWHM, depending on the ion energy) accelerated by a sub-petawatt laser pulse from thin deuterated plastic foils via the Target Normal Sheath Acceleration mechanism. By varying the input ion beam parameters, simulations show that a further improvement in the neutron beam directionality (i.e. reduction in the beam divergence) can be obtained by increasing the projectile ion beam temperature and cut-off energy, as expected from interactions employing higher power lasers at upcoming facilities.

  17. Mission Analysis for the Don Quijote Phase-A Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cano, Juan L.; Sanchez, Mariano; Cornara, Stefania; Carnelli, Ian

    2007-01-01

    The Don Quijote Phase-A study is a definition study funded by ESA and devoted to the analysis of the possibilities to deflect a Near Earth Object (NEO) in the range of 300-800 m diameter. DEIMOS Space S.L. and EADS Astrium have teamed up within this study to form one of the three consortia that have analyzed these aspects for ESA. Target asteroids for the mission are 1989 ML, 2002 AT4 and Apophis. This paper presents the mission analysis activities within the consortium providing: low-thrust interplanetary rendezvous Orbiter trajectories to the target asteroids, ballistic interplanetary trajectories for the Impactor, Orbiter arrival description at the asteroids, Orbiter stable orbits characterization at the asteroid, deflection determination by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) as well as the mission timelines and overall mission scenarios.

  18. Review on Climate Control Chamber studies in studying plant environment interaction under climate change scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Geethalakshmi, V.; Bhuvaneshwari, K.; Lakshmanan, A.

    2011-01-01

    This Technical brief summarizes some of the studies conducted on rice using a climate control chamber and outlines the studies that will be undertaken in the Climate Control Chamber facility that has been established at the Agro Climate Research Center at Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore. In recent years a numbers of technologies have been developed to study the impact of climate change on agricultural systems. Crop response to climate change could be studied by using a climate ...

  19. A world of differences, the normative EOS-scenarios. Final report of a study to found the normative scenarios of the project Energy research scenarios of the Energy Study Centre (ECN, Petten, Netherlands). Een wereld van verschil, de normatieve EOS-scenario's. Eindrapport van een studie ter onderbouwing van de normatieve scenario's van het project Energie Onderzoek Scenario's van het Energie Studie Centrum (ECN, Petten)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dinkelman, G.

    1987-11-01

    Three competing political and economical 'concepts of control' which underlie three normative energy-scenarios are described. The aim of the literature-research carried out for this report was to make the original scenarios more recognizable, and to find out which groups could be expected to support them. The concepts of control bear the names 'Dynamic and growth', 'Dirigation and blockbuilding' and 'Shared development'. They can be seen, so is argued, as competing perspectives on a so-called 'post-Fordist' world. The three concepts of control differ on what they see as common interests and the way they should be looked after. Topics in the description are: the desired rate of European political and economical integration, the borders of Europe, Europe's position in the world, the acceptance of new technologies, the goals they should be used for, and perceived relationships between energy, environment and economy. The scenarios show what happens if these three concepts of control become hegemonic without being forced to compromises. For all three scenarios a short sketch is given of the corresponding dominating energy- and environmental policy and of future relationships within OECD and between OECD on the one hand and NIC's/LDC's on the other. The conclusion of the report is that the ideological differences between the neoliberalism of 'Dynamic and growth' and the green, direct-democracy-politics of 'Shared development' are not as big as they were in the seventies. Especially on the new policy-areas like technology, energy and environment they get closer. But this does not mean that the concept of 'Dirigation and blockbuilding' can be put completely aside. Its goal of economic equality and its emphasis on government dirigation may become more attractive again if it comes out that market regulation leads to a dual society and that it was state-intervention (by

  20. Scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  1. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  2. The design of scenario-based training from the resilience engineering perspective: a study with grid electricians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saurin, Tarcisio Abreu; Wachs, Priscila; Righi, Angela Weber; Henriqson, Eder

    2014-07-01

    Although scenario-based training (SBT) can be an effective means to help workers develop resilience skills, it has not yet been analyzed from the resilience engineering (RE) perspective. This study introduces a five-stage method for designing SBT from the RE view: (a) identification of resilience skills, work constraints and actions for re-designing the socio-technical system; (b) design of template scenarios, allowing the simulation of the work constraints and the use of resilience skills; (c) design of the simulation protocol, which includes briefing, simulation and debriefing; (d) implementation of both scenarios and simulation protocol; and (e) evaluation of the scenarios and simulation protocol. It is reported how the method was applied in an electricity distribution company, in order to train grid electricians. The study was framed as an application of design science research, and five research outputs are discussed: method, constructs, model of the relationships among constructs, instantiations of the method, and theory building. Concerning the last output, the operationalization of the RE perspective on three elements of SBT is presented: identification of training objectives; scenario design; and debriefing. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Environmental sensitivity studies for Gen-IV roadmap fast reactor scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Chang Joon

    2004-03-01

    The environmental effect of the self-sufficient fast reactor scenario, which is considered as one of the full fissile plutonium and transuranic recycle scenario in Gen-IV roadmap, has been analyzed by using the dynamic analysis method. Through the parametric calculations for the fast reactor deployment time and capacity, the environmental effects of the fuel cycle for important parameters such as the amount of spent fuel and the combined amounts of plutonium and minor actinides were estimated and compared to those of the once-through LWR fuel cycle. The results of the sensitivity calculations showed that an early deployment of the fast reactor with a high capacity can reduce the accumulation of spent fuel by up to 37%. Furthermore, the recycling of plutonium and minor actinides can reduce the key repository parameter (long term decay heat). Therefore the favorable environmental effects can be expected with the implementation of the symbiotic fast reactor scenario

  4. Rural energy survey and scenario analysis of village energy consumption: A case study in Lao People's Democratic Republic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mustonen, S.M.

    2010-01-01

    In developing countries, providing all citizens an access to modern forms of energy is among the central energy policy objectives, as the linkages between modern energy services and human development are widely recognized. This paper presents in a scenario analysis of rural energy consumption, how energy services in different sectors of a village economy contribute to the achievement of the UNDP Millennium Development Goals. In a rural village in Lao People's Democratic Republic, household energy demand and energy uses were surveyed immediately prior to the electrification of the village. Based on the situation preceding electrification of the village, the development of village electrification was studied by simulating the village energy system, accounting for all village energy uses but transportation. To study the potential development of electricity demand in the village, three scenarios were constructed using the LEAP model: 'residential demand', 'income generation' and 'public services'. Energy demand in each scenario was analyzed with reference to the Millennium Development Goals.

  5. An Examination of Police Officers' Perceptions of Effective School Responses to Active Shooter Scenarios: A Phenomenological Narrative Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adkins, Florence E.

    2015-01-01

    This qualitative phenomenological research study used narrative inquiry to examine police officer perceptions of effective school responses to active shooting scenarios. Creswell's (2013) six step process for analyzing and interpreting qualitative data was used to examine the interview information. The study results support the idea that changes…

  6. Pilot study on proximal femur strains during locomotion and fall-down scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klodowski, Adam, E-mail: adam.klodowski@lut.fi; Valkeapaeae, Antti, E-mail: antti.valkeapaa@lut.fi; Mikkola, Aki, E-mail: aki.mikkola@lut.fi [Lappeenranta University of Technology (Finland)

    2012-09-15

    The most common and severe type of fracture among the elderly is known as a proximal femur fracture. Aging-related bone loss is one of the major contributing factors to increased likelihood of bone fracture. Specific exercises can be used to strain bones and increase bone strength to counter the effects of bone loss. The flexible multibody simulation approach can be used as a non-invasive method for estimating bone strains caused by physical activity. This method was recently used to analyze the strain of locomotion in regard to human femur and tibia leg bones. The current study focuses on strain analysis of the femoral neck. The research test person was a clinically healthy 65-year old Caucasian male. The computed tomography was used to build a geometrically accurate finite element model of the femur with inhomogeneous material properties derived from the voxel data. The anthropometric data was used to model the musculoskeletal system of the test person. The multibody skeletal model was utilized to estimate loading on the femoral neck during walking, which represents a routine daily activity. The flexible multibody simulation results were compared to strains that occurred during a simulated fall onto the greater trochanter of the femur. The fall simulation was made entirely using finite element software. Results from the finite element analysis were compared with the previous study showing that the test person does not belong to the high-risk hip fracture group. Finally, the estimated strains gathered from the walking simulation were compared to the strain values from the simulated fall-down scenario.

  7. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  8. Numerical simulation studies of gas production scenarios from hydrate accumulations at the Mallik Site, McKenzie Delta, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moridis, George J.; Collett, Timothy S.; Dallimore, Scott R.; Satoh, Tohru; Hancock, Stephen; Weatherill, Brian

    2002-01-01

    The Mallik site represents an onshore permafrost-associated gas hydrate accumulation in the Mackenzie Delta, Northwest Territories, Canada. An 1150 m deep gas hydrate research well was drilled at the site in 1998. The objective of this study is the analysis of various gas production scenarios from several gas-hydrate-bearing zones at the Mallik site. The TOUGH2 general-purpose simulator with the EOSHYDR2 module were used for the analysis. EOSHYDR2 is designed to model the non-isothermal CH(sub 4) (methane) release, phase behavior and flow under conditions typical of methane-hydrate deposits by solving the coupled equations of mass and heat balance, and can describe any combination of gas hydrate dissociation mechanisms. Numerical simulations indicated that significant gas hydrate production at the Mallik site was possible by drawing down the pressure on a thin free-gas zone at the base of the hydrate stability field. Gas hydrate zones with underlying aquifers yielded significant gas production entirely from dissociated gas hydrate, but large amounts of produced water. Lithologically isolated gas-hydrate-bearing reservoirs with no underlying free gas or water zones, and gas-hydrate saturations of at least 50% were also studied. In these cases, it was assumed that thermal stimulation by circulating hot water in the well was the method used to induce dissociation. Sensitivity studies indicated that the methane release from the hydrate accumulations increases with gas-hydrate saturation, the initial formation temperature, the temperature of the circulating water in the well, and the formation thermal conductivity. Methane production appears to be less sensitive to the rock and hydrate specific heat and permeability of the formation

  9. SCENARIO-BASED eLEARNING AND STEM EDUCATION: A QUALITATIVE STUDY EXPLORING THE PERSPECTIVES OF EDUCATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E. Proudfoot

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There are a variety of extra curricular activities and programs that aim to promote Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM education, but there are limited examples of extending STEM curriculum by employing scenario-based eLearning opportunities in a mobile lab learning environment. Following students participation in a first of its kind STEM Mobile Lab program that uses a scenario-based eLearning approach for instruction, twelve educators from four Title I elementary schools were asked about their perceptions of the influence of the Mobile Lab program on the STEM education of their students. The semi-structured interview protocol contained questions intended to explore participants’ perceptions regarding the influence of a scenario-based eLearning Mobile STEM Lab program on the STEM interest and achievement of students. The study found that a scenario-based eLearning Mobile STEM Lab can influence STEM interest and achievement of elementary students. This promising finding leads to a recommendation for educators to use this approach and similar programs to make students more interested in science and improve their grades. Efforts by educators to design and implement scenario-based eLearning opportunities lead to increased learner engagement.

  10. A history of futures: A review of scenario use in water policy studies in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haasnoot, M.; Middelkoop, H.

    2012-01-01

    The future of human life in the world’s river deltas depends on the success of water management. To deal with uncertainties about the future, policymakers in the Netherlands have used scenarios to develop water management strategies for the coastal zone of the Rhine–Meuse delta. In this paper we

  11. Scenario and parameter studies on global deposition of radioactivity using the computer model GLODEP2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapiro, C.S.

    1984-08-01

    The GLODEP2 computer code was utilized to determine biological impact to humans on a global scale using up-to-date estimates of biological risk. These risk factors use varied biological damage models for assessing effects. All the doses reported are the unsheltered, unweathered, smooth terrain, external gamma dose. We assume the unperturbed atmosphere in determining injection and deposition. Effects due to ''nuclear winter'' may invalidate this assumption. The calculations also include scenarios that attempt to assess the impact of the changing nature of the nuclear stockpile. In particular, the shift from larger to smaller yield nuclear devices significantly changes the injection pattern into the atmosphere, and hence significantly affects the radiation doses that ensue. We have also looked at injections into the equatorial atmosphere. In total, we report here the results for 8 scenarios. 10 refs., 6 figs., 11 tabs

  12. Scenario Planning Analysis for Startup Business Case Study: Kemilau Indonesia Magazine

    OpenAIRE

    Mulyanto, Frieta Miasari; Sunitiyoso, Yos

    2013-01-01

    This research explained about the application of scenario planning analysis as solution for Kemilau Indonesia Magazine (KIM) which was born from the opportunities as information and promotion media of tourism. As a new player, KIM has several internal and external issues that impact on its survival. The technique used in this method is to collect data and information to be analyzed in order to generate predictions as a preparation for decision making process. This method give an overview of e...

  13. The competitive advantage of nations and choice of entry strategies : a three scenario case study

    OpenAIRE

    Helvik, Marianne; Harnecker, Maria Luisa Garrido

    2005-01-01

    Michael E. Porter’s Diamond framework has been used as an analysis tool the last 15 years to define the competitive advantage of nations, but few researchers have discussed if there is a link between the Diamond framework and how international firms can pursue the best entry mode. Different variables will be presented linking the Diamond framework to entry strategies, designing an extended framework. Three case scenarios are used for analysis purposes; the first two originating in Porter’s Di...

  14. Scenario-Based Case Study Analysis of Asteroid Mitigation in the Short Response Time Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seery, B.; Greenaugh, K. C.

    2017-12-01

    Asteroid impact on Earth is a rare but inevitable occurrence, with potentially cataclysmic consequences. If a pending impact is discovered, mitigation options include civil-defense preparations as well as missions to deflect the asteroid and/or robustly disrupt and disperse it to an extent that only a negligible fraction remains on a threatening path (National Research Council's "Defending the Planet," 2010). If discovered with sufficient warning time, a kinetic impactor can deflect smaller objects, but response delays can rule out the option. If a body is too large to deflect by kinetic impactor, or the time for response is insufficient, deflection or disruption can be achieved with a nuclear device. The use of nuclear ablation is considered within the context of current capabilities, requiring no need for nuclear testing. Existing, well-understood devices are sufficient for the largest known Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHOs). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Goddard Space Flight Center and the Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration are collaborating to determine the critical characterization issues that define the boundaries for the asteroid-deflection options. Drawing from such work, we examine the timeline for a deflection mission, and how to provide the best opportunity for an impactor to suffice by minimizing the response time. This integrated problem considers the physical process of the deflection method (impact or ablation), along with the spacecraft, launch capability, risk analysis, and the available intercept flight trajectories. Our joint DOE/NASA team has conducted case study analysis of three distinctly different PHOs, on a hypothetical earth impacting trajectory. The size of the design reference bodies ranges from 100 - 500 meters in diameter, with varying physical parameters such as composition, spin state, and metallicity, to name a few. We assemble the design reference of the small body in question using

  15. Economic study of fuel scenarios for a reload; Estudio economico de escenarios de combustible para una recarga

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortiz S, J. J.; Castillo M, J. A.; Montes T, J. L.; Perusquia del C, R., E-mail: juanjose.ortiz@inin.gob.mx [ININ, Carretera Mexico-Toluca s/n, 52750 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)

    2014-10-15

    In this work the results to plan different scenarios for designing a nuclear fuel reload are shown. Given a reload with specific energy requirements, the objective is to verify the feasibility of using either a greater number of fresh fuel with less uranium enrichment, or otherwise reduce the number of fresh fuel assemblies and therefore they have a higher average uranium enrichment. For the study a cycle balance 18-month basis with 112 fresh assemblies divided into two lots, with energy produced of 10,075 Mwd/Tu was used. For the designs under the mentioned scenarios, the heuristic techniques known as taboo search and neural networks were used. To verify the feasibility of obtained reloads an economic study of the reload costs was performed. The results showed that is possible to design reloads under the two scenarios, but was more complicated decrease the amount of fresh fuel assemblies. In both scenarios was possible to reduce manufacturing costs of fuel and according to purely static calculation, it would be possible to increase the energy produced. (Author)

  16. Phase Transitions, Diffraction Studies and Marginal Dimensionality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Als-Nielsen, Jens Aage

    1985-01-01

    Continuous phase transitions and the associated critical phenomena have been one of the most active areas of research in condensed matter physics for several decades. This short review is only one cut through this huge subject and the author has chosen to emphasize diffraction studies as a basic ...

  17. A Flexible Socioeconomic Scenarios Framework for the Study of Plausible Arctic Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reissell, A. K.; Peters, G. P.; Riahi, K.; Kroglund, M.; Lovecraft, A. L.; Nilsson, A. E.; Preston, B. L.; van Ruijven, B. J.

    2016-12-01

    Future developments of the Arctic region are associated with different drivers of change - climate, environmental, and socio-economic - and their interactions, and are highly uncertain. The uncertainty poses challenges for decision-making, calling for development of new analytical frameworks. Scenarios - coherent narratives describing potential futures, pathways to futures, and drivers of change along the way - can be used to explore the consequences of the key uncertainties, particularly in the long-term. In a participatory scenarios workshop, we used both top-down and bottom-up approaches for the development of a flexible socioeconomic scenarios framework. The top-down approach was linked to the global Integrated Assessment Modeling framework and its Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), developing an Arctic extension of the set of five storylines on the main socioeconomic uncertainties in global climate change research. The bottom-up approach included participatory development of narratives originating from within the Arctic region. For extension of global SSPs to the regional level, we compared the key elements in the global SSPs (Population, Human Development, Economy & Lifestyle, Policies & Institutions, Technology, and Environment & Natural Resources) and key elements in the Arctic. Additional key elements for the Arctic scenarios include, for example, seasonal migration, the large role of traditional knowledge and culture, mixed economy, nested governance structure, human and environmental security, quality of infrastructure. The bottom-up derived results suggested that the scenarios developed independent of the SSPs could be mapped back to the SSPs to demonstrate consistency with respect to representing similar boundary conditions. The two approaches are complimentary, as the top-down approach can be used to set the global socio-economic and climate boundary conditions, and the bottom-up approach providing the regional context. One key uncertainty and

  18. German risk study, phase (DRS-B)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werner, W.

    1992-01-01

    The first risk investigations were primarily intended to estimate the risk of accidents in nuclear power plants and to compare it with other natural risk and civilization risks. The American reactor safety study WASH 1400 and the German risk study phase A (DRS-A) gave a detailed analyses of the offsite consequences of accidents, especially the magnitude and frequency of health damage for the population. Risk investigations today are primarily used to examine the design of safety systems and to further develop the entire safety concept. Safety investigations have shown that nuclear power plants still possess safety reserves if safety systems do not operate as planned. These safety reserves can be exploited in the sense of a further development of safety by plant internal emergency measures. One purpose of risk analyses is to identify such measures and to evaluate their feasibility and effectiveness. The most important goals of the investigations in DRS-B were: Identification of vulnerabilities and possible safety improvements; determination of safety reserves during accident sequences exceeding the design limits; evaluation of plant internal emergency measures. Thus, goals in phase B compared with phase A have changed from investigations of the magnitude of damage to detailed analysis of the plant systems response under accident conditions. The magnitude of possible fission product releases is also determined in phase B. However, no new accident consequence calculations are performed. Figs and tabs

  19. Politics representation scenarios and elec toral behavior - study case: Porto Alegre's municipal elections in 2004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda Barth

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to reflect about the influence of the political surveys in the definition of the electoral behavior analyzing the scenarios of political representation, the mechanism of public opinion formation and the specificities of the behavior of the gaucho electorate. We believe the publicity built upon the surveys had a great impact in the Porto Alegre mayor election results in 2004. The methodology we chose was the qualitative approach, that is, content analysis. In the end, we confirm the behavior of the gaucho electorate shows a receptive predisposing to the appeal to the useful vote.

  20. JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, N. S.

    2018-04-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

  1. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  2. Study of nonequilibrium dispersed two phase flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reyes, J.N. Jr.

    1986-01-01

    Understanding the behavior of liquid droplets in a superheated steam environment is essential to the accurate prediction of nuclear fuel rod surface temperatures during the blowdown and reflood phase of a loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA). In response to this need, this treatise presents several original and significant contributions to the field of thermofluid physics. The research contained herein presents a statistical derivation of the two-phase mass, momentum, and energy-conservation equations using a droplet continuity equation analogous to that used in the Kinetic Theory of Gases. Unlike the Eulerian volume and time-averaged conservation equations generally used to describe dispersed two-phase flow behavior, this statistical averaging approach results in an additional mass momentum or energy term in each of the respective conservation equations. Further, this study demonstrates that current definitions of the volumetric vapor generation rate used in the mass conservation equation are inappropriate results under certain circumstances. The mass conservation equation derived herein is used to obtain a new definition for the volumetric vapor-generation rate. Last, a simple two phase phenomenological model, based on the statistically averaged conservation equations, is presented and solved analytically. It is shown that the actual quality and vapor temperature, under these circumstances, depend on a single dimensionless group

  3. Simulation studies of GST phase change alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martyna, Glenn

    2008-03-01

    In order to help drive post-Moore's Law technology development, switching processes involving novel materials, in particular, GeSbTe (GST) alloys are being investigated for use in memory and eFuse applications. An anneal/quench thermal process crystallizes/amorphosizes a GST alloy which then has a low/high resistance and thereby forms a readable/writeable bit; for example, a ``one'' might be the low resistance, conducting crystalline state and a ``zero'' might be the high resistance, glassy state. There are many open questions about the precise nature of the structural transitions and the coupling to electronic structure changes. Computational and experimental studies of the effect of pressure on the GST materials were initiated in order to probe the physics behind the thermal switching process. A new pathway to reversible phase change involving pressure-induced structural metal insulator transitions was discovered. In a binary GS system, a room-temperature, direct, pressure-induced transformation from the high resistance amorphous phase to the low resistance crystalline phase was observed experimentally while the reverse process under tensile load was demonstrated via ab initio MD simulations performed on IBM's Blue Gene/L enabled by massively parallel software. Pressure induced transformations of the ternary material GST-225 (Ge2Sb2Te5) were, also, examined In the talk, the behavior of the two systems will be compared and insight into the nature of the phase change given.

  4. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  5. Cosmogonic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

    1985-05-01

    A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

  6. Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

    2014-05-01

    The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied

  7. The importance of meteorology in the environmental impacts assessment of nuclear power plants: scenarios studies using geographic information system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leao, I.L.B.; Biagio, R.M.S.; Costa, E.M.; Alves, R.N.

    1999-01-01

    The Brazilian Nuclear Power Plant (CNAAA) is located in a very complex region of the state of Rio de Janeiro. The environmental impact caused by the normal operation of such installation can be better evaluated by using an integrated approach, in which a geographical information system plays a very important role. In this study, environmental scenarios are integrated with some extreme and representative meteorological situations. (author)

  8. The 'Europe, Territories' project of energy transition(s) in Europe: comparative analysis of scenarios, of their territorial application, and of their social-economic impacts. Phase 1. Analysis of national scenarios in Germany, Austria, Denmark and Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatelin, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Besnard, Manon; Letz, Thomas; Rialhe, Anne

    2016-01-01

    This report reports an identification and an analysis of different scenarios of energy transition elaborated in different European countries (Germany, Austria, Denmark, Switzerland), and is a required preliminary step for the 'Europe-Territories' project implemented by the NegaWatt association. The report justifies the selection of these countries and, for each country, the selection of a specific scenario as several scenarios were available for each country. It discusses available data, identifies missing data and reports the search for additional data. Then, it reports the comparison between noticed trajectories, European objectives and retained scenarios. More precisely, and for each of the four countries and for France, it analyses the share of renewable energies in final energy consumption, and the evolution of final energy consumption. For each national scenario, it presents various aspects which can be, depending on the country, framework and method, major focuses, implementation, results, economic benefits, scenario assessment, energy production and demand. It proposes a comparative analysis of the studied national scenarios in terms of objectives and methodology, of energy demand and of energy production. It finally analyses trajectories on the short and on the long term. Some more detailed presentations of national scenarios are given in appendix

  9. Studies on representative disruption scenarios, associated electromagnetic and heat loads and operation window in ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujieda, Hirobumi; Shimada, Michiya; Kawano, Yasunori; Ohmori, Junji; Neyatani, Yuzuru; Sugihara, Masayoshi; Gribov, Yuri; Ioki, Kimihiro; Khayrutdinov, Rustan; Lukash, Victor

    2007-07-01

    The impacts of plasma disruptions on ITER have been investigated in detail to confirm the robustness of the design of the machine to the potential consequential loads. The loads include both electromagnetic (EM) and heat loads on the in-vessel components and the vacuum vessel (VV). Several representative disruption scenarios are specified based on newly derived physics guidelines for the shortest current quench time as well as the maximum product of halo current fraction and toroidal peaking factor arising from disruptions in ITER. Disruption simulations with the DINA code and EM load analyses with a 3D finite element method (FEM) code are performed for these scenarios. Some margins are confirmed in the EM load on in-vessel components due to induced eddy and halo currents for these representative scenarios. However, the margins are not very large. The heat load on various parts of the first wall due to the vertical movement and the thermal quench (TQ) is calculated with a 2D heat conduction code based on the database of heat deposition during disruptions and simulation results with the DINA code. It is found that the beryllium (Be) wall will not melt during the vertical movement. Significant melting is anticipated for the upper Be wall and tungsten divertor baffle due to the TQ after the vertical movement. However, its impact could be substantially mitigated by implementing a reliable detection system of the vertical movement and a mitigation system, e.g., massive noble gas injection (MGI). Some melting of the upper Be wall is anticipated at major disruptions (MD). At least several tens of unmitigated disruptions must be considered even if an advanced prediction/mitigation system is implemented. With these unmitigated disruptions, the loss of Be layer is expected to be within approx. = 30-100 μm/event out of 10 mm thick Be first wall. Various post processing programs of the results simulated with the DINA code, which are developed for the design work, are

  10. 'Netherlands in Triplicate' in detail. Comments to the scenario study 'Nederland in Drievoud' (Netherlands in Triplicate) of the Dutch Central Planning Bureau

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamminga, K.J.; Slotegraaf, G.; Van der Knoop, J.

    1995-08-01

    In 1992 the Dutch Central Planning Bureau (CPB) published the scenario studies 'Scanning the Future' and 'Nederland in Drievoud' (Netherlands in Triplicate or NiD). 'Scanning the Future' concerns the development of the world economy in the period 1990-2015, NiD concerns the development of the Dutch economy in the period 1990-2015. In this report comments are made regarding NiD. Chapter 1 focuses on the background and the goals of the NiD scenarios. These scenarios are projective, according to the CPB. The analytical framework or vision is based on the comparative strength analysis of the current state of the world economy and on the expected trends and challenges which might strongly influence the development of the world economy. The first chapter also deals with the assumptions chosen by the CPB. It is concluded that the CPB was searching for a balance between plausibility and provocation. If a scenario becomes too plausible their goal ('shaking up of mental maps') will not be achieved, whereas unreal predictions are irrelevant for policy makers. In chapter 2 the general scenario methodology is discussed and a scenario typology is derived including criteria which a well constructed scenario should meet. A distinction is made between scenarios, that are projective or explorative forecasting, and scenarios that are prospective, or speculative forecasting. Also another distinction is made: autonomous scenarios versus policy scenarios. Chapter 3 contains a closer look at the CPB study, based on the methodological considerations of Chapter 2. It is concluded that in the process of scenario development the goal was to create a coherent picture, fitting the assumptions on economic and human behaviour. The policy measures also had to match these assumptions. However, these assumptions imply certain norms and values. Therefore the NiD scenarios are rather prospective than projective. 3 figs., 1 tab., 26 refs., 2 appendices

  11. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  12. Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios. Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wakker, A.; Egging, R.; Van Thuijl, E.; Van Tilburg, X.; Deurwaarder, E.P.; De Lange, T.J.; Berndes, G.; Hansson, J.

    2005-11-01

    This report is published within the framework of the European Commission-supported project 'Clear Views on Clean Fuels' or VIEWLS. The overall objectives of this project are to provide structured and clear data on the availability and performance of biofuel and to identify the possibilities and strategies towards large-scale sustainable production, use and trading of biofuels for the transport sector in Europe, including Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC). This reports constitutes the outcome of the Work Package 5 (WP5) of the VIEWLS project. In WP5 the EU biofuels and bioenergy markets are modelled with the aim to conduct quantitative analyses on the production and costs of biofuels and on the resulting market structure and supply chains. In a bigger context, where possible, WP5 aims also to provide insight into larger socio-economic impacts of bioenergy trade within Europe. The objective of this research is to develop a cost efficient biofuel strategy for Europe in terms of biofuel production, cost and trade, and to assess its larger impact on bioenergy markets and trade up to 2030. Based on the biomass availability and associated costs within EU25, under different conditions, scenarios for biofuels production and cost can be constructed using quantitative modelling tools. Combining this with (cost) data on biofuel conversion technologies and transport of biomass and biofuels, the lowest cost biofuel supply chain given a certain demand predetermined by the biofuels Directive can be designed. In a broader context, this is supplemented by a design of a sustainable bioenergy supply chain in view of the fact that biomass-heat, biomass-electricity and biofuels are competing for the same biomass resources. In other words, the scarcity of bioenergy crops, as manifested through overall bioenergy demand, is an essential variable in bioenergy scenarios

  13. Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning: Scenario Case Studies Using the Resource Planning Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barrows, Clayton [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dyson, Mark [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-04-01

    In this report, we analyze the impacts of model configuration and detail in capacity expansion models, computational tools used by utility planners looking to find the least cost option for planning the system and by researchers or policy makers attempting to understand the effects of various policy implementations. The present analysis focuses on the importance of model configurations — particularly those related to capacity credit, dispatch modeling, and transmission modeling — to the construction of scenario futures. Our analysis is primarily directed toward advanced tools used for utility planning and is focused on those impacts that are most relevant to decisions with respect to future renewable capacity deployment. To serve this purpose, we develop and employ the NREL Resource Planning Model to conduct a case study analysis that explores 12 separate capacity expansion scenarios of the Western Interconnection through 2030.

  14. A study of different scenarios of fetal middle cerebral artery peak systolic velocity in an Indian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sushil G Kachewar

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Fetal Middle Cerebral Artery Peak Systolic Velocity (MCA-PSV is being increasingly used for non-invasively diagnosing fetal anemias irrespective of their cause. A study was therefore undertaken to find out what different scenarios can be encountered in the local obstetric population. Doppler ultrasound measurements of fetal MCA-PSV were done in 1200 pregnant women who were referred for antenatal ultrasound between 12 - 40 weeks of gestation. Statistical analysis was done using Microsoft Excel 2007 and SPSS software version 12. The different scenarios encountered in this study were then compiled and are presented here. With increasing gestational age, the value of MCA-PSV was seen to increase correspondingly in all normal fetuses. This correlation between the two was thus positive and was found to be statistically significant (p < 0.05. Abnormally raised values of MCA-PSV were seen in fetuses with severe anemia due to ABO-Rh Iso-immunization which left untreated, ultimately resulted in fetal hydrops. Almost similar and normal values were seen in separate as well as conjoint healthy twins. Abnormally elevated values were seen in twins with discordant growths. Fetal MCA-PSV is very useful to confirm the presence or absence of fetal anemia irrespective of underlying cause in singleton as well as twin pregnancies. For complete assessment, it is essential that the specialist is thoroughly aware of the different scenarios that can be encountered while using this non-invasive method.

  15. DNA transfer-a never ending story. A study on scenarios involving a second person as carrier.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helmus, Janine; Bajanowski, Thomas; Poetsch, Micaela

    2016-01-01

    The transfer of DNA directly from one item to another has been shown in many studies with elaborate discussions on the nature of the DNA donor as well as material and surface of the items or surrounding features. Every DNA transfer scenario one can imagine seems to be possible. This evokes more and more intricate scenarios proposed by lawyers or attorneys searching for an explanation of the DNA of a certain person on a distinct item with impact on a crime. At court, the forensic genetic scientist has to comment on the probability of these scenarios thus calling for extensive studies on such settings. Here, the possibility of an involvement of a second person as a carrier of the donor's DNA in a variety of different scenarios including three pairs of people and two kinds of items (textiles and plastic bags) was investigated. All transfer settings were executed with and without gloves on the carrier's hands. DNA left on the items was isolated and analyzed using the Powerplex® ESX17 kit. In 21 out of 180 samples, all alleles of the donor DNA could be obtained on the second item (12%), on eight samples, the donor's DNA was dominant compared to all other alleles (38% of samples with complete donor profile). Additionally, 51 samples displayed at least more than half of the donor's alleles (28%). The complete DNA profile of the carrier was found in 47 out of 180 samples (42 partial profiles). In summary, it could be shown that a transfer of donor DNA from epithelial cells through a carrier to a second item is possible, even if the carrier does not wear gloves.

  16. Model France. Efficiently achieving climate protection targets. Nuclear power phase-out scenario adapted in favour of climate protection; Vorbild Frankreich. Klimaschutzziele effizient erreichen. Ausstiegszenario Kernkraft zugunsten des Klimaschutzes angepasst

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leidinger, Tobias [Luther Rechtsanwaltsgesellschaft, Duesseldorf (Germany)

    2017-12-15

    In Germany - after an abrupt, legally controversial and in some cases unconstitutional phase-out of nuclear power (''at any price'') - the next phase-out of is now being negotiated among new coalition partners. In France, on the other hand, energy and climate protection seem to be in the clear sense of the word: the French nuclear phase-out scenario is clearly being ''stretched out'' in order to achieve the promised climate protection targets. Reason seems to have the upper hand in France: instead of ''black-and-white scenarios'', one prefers to stick to what is in reality feasible and achievable. In reality, the expansion of renewable energies, the regulation of the transport sector and electricity production from nuclear energy are not opposites, but complement each other in the interests of affordable energy and effective climate protection.

  17. Preventive health services implemented by family physicians in Portugal—a cross-sectional study based on two clinical scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Carlos; Azevedo, Luís Filipe; Santos, Cristina; Sá, Luísa; Santos, Paulo; Couto, Maria; Pereira, Altamiro; Hespanhol, Alberto

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To assess whether Portuguese family physicians perform preventive health services in accordance with scientific evidence, based on the recommendations of the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF). Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Primary healthcare, Portuguese National Health Service. Participants 255 Portuguese family physicians selected by a stratified cluster sampling design were invited to participate in a computer-assisted telephone survey. Outcomes Prevalence of compliance with USPSTF recommendations for screening, given a male and female clinical scenario and a set of proposed medical interventions, including frequency of the intervention and performance in their own daily practice. Results A response rate of 95.7% was obtained (n=244). 98–100% of family physicians answered according to the USPSTF recommendations in most interventions. In the male scenario, the lowest concordance was observed in the evaluation of prostate-specific antigen with 37% of family physicians answering according to the USPSTF recommendations. In the female scenario, the lowest concordance was for cholesterol testing with 2% of family physicians complying. Family physicians younger than 50 years had significantly better compliance scores than older ones (mean 77% vs 72%; p<0.001). Conclusions We found a high degree of agreement with USPSTF recommendations among Portuguese family physicians. However, we also found results suggesting excessive use of some medical interventions, raising concerns related to possible harm associated with overdiagnosis and overtreatment. PMID:24861550

  18. MAQARIN natural analogue study: phase III

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alexander, W R; Mazurek, M; Waber, H N [Univ. of Berne (Switzerland). Institutes of Geology, Mineralogy and Petrology, Rock-Water Interaction Group (GGWW); Arlinger, J; Erlandson, A C; Hallbeck, L; Pedersen, K [Goeteborg University (Sweden). Dept. of General and Marine Microbiology; Boehlmann, W; Fritz, P; Geyer, S; Geyer, W; Hanschman, G; Kopinke, F D; Poerschmann, J [Umweltforschungszentrum Leipzig-Halle (Germany); Chambers, A V; Haworth, A; Ilett, D; Linklater, C M; Tweed, C J [AEA Technology plc, Harwell (United Kingdom); Chenery, S R.N.; Kemp, S J; Milodowski, A E; Pearce, J M; Reeder, S; Rochelle, C A; Smith, B; Wetton, P D; Wragg, J [British Geological Survey, Keyworth (United Kingdom); Clark, I D [Univ. of Ottawa (Canada). Dept. of Geology; Hodginson, E; Hughes, C R [Univ. of Manchester (United Kingdom). Dept. of Earth Sciences; Hyslop, E K [British Geological Survey, Edinburgh (United Kingdom); Karlsson, F [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Khoury, H N; Salameh, E [Univ. of Jordan, Amman (Jordan); Lagerblad, B [Cement Institute, Stockholm (Sweden); Longworth, G [Univ. of Manchester (United Kingdom). Dept. of Geology; Pitty, A F [Private consultant, Norwich (United Kingdom); Savage, D [QuantiSci Ltd, Melton Mowbray (United Kingdom); Smellie, J A.T. [ed.; Conterra AB, Uppsala (Sweden)

    1998-12-01

    This report represents the conclusion to Phase III of the Maqarin Natural Analogue Study. The main thrust was to establish the origin and chemistry of the Western Springs hyper alkaline groundwaters (Na/K enriched Ca(OH){sub 2} type) and to study their interaction with rocks of different compositions, as natural analogues to key processes that might occur at an early stage within the `alkali disturbed zone` of cementitious repositories in different host rocks. Whilst earlier studies at Maqarin were very much site-specific and process-oriented, Phase III provided a regional perspective to the geological evolution of the Maqarin region. This was made possible by greater field access which allowed a more systematic structural and geomorphological study of the area. This has resulted in a greater understanding of the age and spatial relationships concerning formation of the cement zones through spontaneous combustion of the Bituminous Marls, and the subsequent formation of high pH groundwaters at the Eastern and Western Springs locations. At the Western Springs locality, hydrochemical and hydrogeological evaluation of new and published data (plus access to unpublished data), together with detailed mineralogical and geochemical studies, helped to clarify the very earliest stage of cement leachate/host rock interaction. The data were used also to test coupled flow/transport codes developed to assess the long-term evolution of a cementitious repository. Additional objectives addressed include: a) rock matrix diffusion, b) the occurrence and chemical controls on zeolite composition, e) the occurrence and chemical controls on clay stability, and d) the role of microbes, organics and colloids in trace element transport. The Maqarin site now provides a consistent picture explaining the origin of the hyperalkaline groundwaters, and is therefore a unique location for the examination of the mechanisms and processes associated with cementitious repositories. Application of these

  19. MAQARIN natural analogue study: phase III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, W.R.; Mazurek, M.; Waber, H.N.; Arlinger, J.; Erlandson, A.C.; Hallbeck, L.; Pedersen, K.; Chambers, A.V.; Haworth, A.; Ilett, D.; Linklater, C.M.; Tweed, C.J.; Chenery, S.R.N.; Kemp, S.J.; Milodowski, A.E.; Pearce, J.M.; Reeder, S.; Rochelle, C.A.; Smith, B.; Wetton, P.D.; Wragg, J.; Clark, I.D.; Karlsson, F.; Khoury, H.N.; Salameh, E.; Lagerblad, B.; Longworth, G.; Savage, D.; Smellie, J.A.T.

    1998-12-01

    This report represents the conclusion to Phase III of the Maqarin Natural Analogue Study. The main thrust was to establish the origin and chemistry of the Western Springs hyper alkaline groundwaters (Na/K enriched Ca(OH) 2 type) and to study their interaction with rocks of different compositions, as natural analogues to key processes that might occur at an early stage within the 'alkali disturbed zone' of cementitious repositories in different host rocks. Whilst earlier studies at Maqarin were very much site-specific and process-oriented, Phase III provided a regional perspective to the geological evolution of the Maqarin region. This was made possible by greater field access which allowed a more systematic structural and geomorphological study of the area. This has resulted in a greater understanding of the age and spatial relationships concerning formation of the cement zones through spontaneous combustion of the Bituminous Marls, and the subsequent formation of high pH groundwaters at the Eastern and Western Springs locations. At the Western Springs locality, hydrochemical and hydrogeological evaluation of new and published data (plus access to unpublished data), together with detailed mineralogical and geochemical studies, helped to clarify the very earliest stage of cement leachate/host rock interaction. The data were used also to test coupled flow/transport codes developed to assess the long-term evolution of a cementitious repository. Additional objectives addressed include: a) rock matrix diffusion, b) the occurrence and chemical controls on zeolite composition, e) the occurrence and chemical controls on clay stability, and d) the role of microbes, organics and colloids in trace element transport. The Maqarin site now provides a consistent picture explaining the origin of the hyperalkaline groundwaters, and is therefore a unique location for the examination of the mechanisms and processes associated with cementitious repositories. Application of these

  20. MAQARIN natural analogue study: phase III

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alexander, W R; Mazurek, M; Waber, H N [Univ. of Berne (Switzerland). Institutes of Geology, Mineralogy and Petrology, Rock-Water Interaction Group (GGWW); Arlinger, J; Erlandson, A C; Hallbeck, L; Pedersen, K [Goeteborg Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of General and Marine Microbiology; Boehlmann, W; Fritz, P; Geyer, S; Geyer, W; Hanschman, G; Kopinke, F D; Poerschmann, J [Umweltforschungszentrum Leipzig-Halle (Germany); Chambers, A V; Haworth, A; Ilett, D; Linklater, C M; Tweed, C J [AEA Technology plc, Harwell (United Kingdom); Chenery, S R.N.; Kemp, S J; Milodowski, A E; Pearce, J M; Reeder, S; Rochelle, C A; Smith, B; Wetton, P D; Wragg, J [British Geological Survey, Keyworth (United Kingdom); Clark, I D [Univ. of Ottawa (Canada). Dept. of Geology; Hodginson, E; Hughes, C R [Univ. of Manchester (United Kingdom). Dept. of Earth Sciences; Hyslop, E K [British Geological Survey, Edinburgh (United Kingdom); Karlsson, F [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Khoury, H N; Salameh, E [Univ. of Jordan, Amman (Jordan); Lagerblad, B [Cement Inst., Stockholm (Sweden); Longworth, G [Univ. of Manchester (United Kingdom). Dept. of Geology; Pitty, A F [Private consultant, Norwich (United Kingdom); Savage, D [QuantiSci Ltd, Melton Mowbray (United Kingdom); Smellie, J A.T. [ed.; Conterra AB, Uppsala (Sweden)

    1998-12-01

    This report represents the conclusion to Phase III of the Maqarin Natural Analogue Study. The main thrust was to establish the origin and chemistry of the Western Springs hyper alkaline groundwaters (Na/K enriched Ca(OH){sub 2} type) and to study their interaction with rocks of different compositions, as natural analogues to key processes that might occur at an early stage within the `alkali disturbed zone` of cementitious repositories in different host rocks. Whilst earlier studies at Maqarin were very much site-specific and process-oriented, Phase III provided a regional perspective to the geological evolution of the Maqarin region. This was made possible by greater field access which allowed a more systematic structural and geomorphological study of the area. This has resulted in a greater understanding of the age and spatial relationships concerning formation of the cement zones through spontaneous combustion of the Bituminous Marls, and the subsequent formation of high pH groundwaters at the Eastern and Western Springs locations. At the Western Springs locality, hydrochemical and hydrogeological evaluation of new and published data (plus access to unpublished data), together with detailed mineralogical and geochemical studies, helped to clarify the very earliest stage of cement leachate/host rock interaction. The data were used also to test coupled flow/transport codes developed to assess the long-term evolution of a cementitious repository. Additional objectives addressed include: a) rock matrix diffusion, b) the occurrence and chemical controls on zeolite composition, e) the occurrence and chemical controls on clay stability, and d) the role of microbes, organics and colloids in trace element transport. The Maqarin site now provides a consistent picture explaining the origin of the hyperalkaline groundwaters, and is therefore a unique location for the examination of the mechanisms and processes associated with cementitious repositories. Application of these

  1. Modeling the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on wood production and carbon storage: A case study in the Mediterranean region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottalico, Francesca; Pesola, Lucia; Vizzarri, Matteo; Antonello, Leonardo; Barbati, Anna; Chirici, Gherardo; Corona, Piermaria; Cullotta, Sebastiano; Garfì, Vittorio; Giannico, Vincenzo; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lombardi, Fabio; Marchetti, Marco; Nocentini, Susanna; Riccioli, Francesco; Travaglini, Davide; Sallustio, Lorenzo

    2016-01-01

    Forest ecosystems are fundamental for the terrestrial biosphere as they deliver multiple essential ecosystem services (ES). In environmental management, understanding ES distribution and interactions and assessing the economic value of forest ES represent future challenges. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit method based on a multi-scale approach (MiMoSe-Multiscale Mapping of ecoSystem services) to assess the current and future potential of a given forest area to provide ES. To do this we modified and improved the InVEST model in order to adapt input data and simulations to the context of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Specifically, we integrated a GIS-based model, scenario model, and economic valuation to investigate two ES (wood production and carbon sequestration) and their trade-offs in a test area located in Molise region (Central Italy). Spatial information and trade-off analyses were used to assess the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on investigated services. Scenario A was designed to describe the current Business as Usual approach. Two alternative scenarios were designed to describe management approaches oriented towards nature protection (scenario B) or wood production (scenario C) and compared to scenario A. Management scenarios were simulated at the scale of forest management units over a 20-year time period. Our results show that forest management influenced ES provision and associated benefits at the regional scale. In the test area, the Total Ecosystem Services Value of the investigated ES increases 85% in scenario B and decreases 82% in scenario C, when compared to scenario A. Our study contributes to the ongoing debate about trade-offs and synergies between carbon sequestration and wood production benefits associated with socio-ecological systems. The MiMoSe approach can be replicated in other contexts with similar characteristics, thus providing a useful basis for the projection of benefits from forest

  2. KOVEC studies of radioisotope thermoelectric generator response (In connection with possible NASA space shuttle accident explosion scenarios)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walton, J.; Weston, A.; Lee, E.

    1984-06-26

    The Department of Energy (DOE) commissioned a study leading to a final report (NUS-4543, Report of the Shuttle Transportation System (STS) Explosion Working Group (EWG), June 8, 1984), concerned with PuO/sub 2/ dispersal should the NASA space shuttle explode during the proposed Galileo and ISPN launches planned for 1986. At DOE's request, LLNL furnished appendices that describe hydrocode KOVEC calculations of potential damage to the Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators, fueled by PuO/sub 2/, should certain explosion scenarios occur. These appendices are contained in this report.

  3. Study of the triton-burnup process in different JET scenarios using neutron monitor based on CVD diamond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nemtsev, G., E-mail: g.nemtsev@iterrf.ru; Amosov, V.; Meshchaninov, S.; Rodionov, R. [Institution “Project center ITER,” Moscow (Russian Federation); Popovichev, S. [CCFE, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Collaboration: EUROfusion Consortium, JET, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)

    2016-11-15

    We present the results of analysis of triton burn-up process using the data from diamond detector. Neutron monitor based on CVD diamond was installed in JET torus hall close to the plasma center. We measure the part of 14 MeV neutrons in scenarios where plasma current varies in a range of 1-3 MA. In this experiment diamond neutron monitor was also able to detect strong gamma bursts produced by runaway electrons arising during the disruptions. We can conclude that CVD diamond detector will contribute to the study of fast particles confinement and help predict the disruption events in future tokamaks.

  4. Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anandhi, A.; Omani, N.; Chaubey, I.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Nanjundiah, R. S.

    2017-01-01

    Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for

  5. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  6. STUDY OF TCP PHASE PRECIPITATING IN GH4199 SUPERALLOY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    T.Cui; Y.S.Zhang; S.W.Guo; L.Wang; H.C.Yang

    2004-01-01

    The precipitating regulation and mechanism of TCP phasephase and σ phase) are studied, using electron hole number (EHN) theory, phase analysis technology and TEM observation. The results indicate that the EHN in studied alloy is 2.311-2.348 which is higher than that of critical EHN of μ phase precipitate (2.30), so μ phase could precipitate if there is enough thermo-exposition. In contrast, the calculated EHN is less than that of critical EHN of σ phase precipitate (2.52). However the σ phase is also observed by TEM.Enrich of Cr and Mo around γ phase after γ' phase precipitated leads to σ phase precipitated.

  7. Evidence and future scenarios of a low-carbon energy transition in Central America: a case study in Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barido, Diego Ponce de Leon; Johnston, Josiah; Moncada, Maria V.; Callaway, Duncan; Kammen, Daniel M.

    2015-10-01

    The global carbon emissions budget over the next decades depends critically on the choices made by fast-growing emerging economies. Few studies exist, however, that develop country-specific energy system integration insights that can inform emerging economies in this decision-making process. High spatial- and temporal-resolution power system planning is central to evaluating decarbonization scenarios, but obtaining the required data and models can be cost prohibitive, especially for researchers in low, lower-middle income economies. Here, we use Nicaragua as a case study to highlight the importance of high-resolution open access data and modeling platforms to evaluate fuel-switching strategies and their resulting cost of power under realistic technology, policy, and cost scenarios (2014-2030). Our results suggest that Nicaragua could cost-effectively achieve a low-carbon grid (≥80%, based on non-large hydro renewable energy generation) by 2030 while also pursuing multiple development objectives. Regional cooperation (balancing) enables the highest wind and solar generation (18% and 3% by 2030, respectively), at the least cost (US127 MWh-1). Potentially risky resources (geothermal and hydropower) raise system costs but do not significantly hinder decarbonization. Oil price sensitivity scenarios suggest renewable energy to be a more cost-effective long-term investment than fuel oil, even under the assumption of prevailing cheap oil prices. Nicaragua’s options illustrate the opportunities and challenges of power system decarbonization for emerging economies, and the key role that open access data and modeling platforms can play in helping develop low-carbon transition pathways.

  8. Identification and Selection of Alternative Scenarios in LCA Studies of Integrated Waste Management Systems: A Review of Main Issues and Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Raggi

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Life Cycle Assessment (LCA is a decision support tool that can be used to assess the environmental performance of an integrated waste management system or to identify the system with the best performance through a comparative analysis of different scenarios. The results of the analysis depend primarily on how the scenarios to be compared are defined, that is on which waste fractions are assumed to be sent to certain treatments/destinations and in what amounts. This paper reviews LCAs of integrated waste management systems with the aim of exploring how the scenarios to be compared are defined in the preliminary phase of an LCA. This critical review highlighted that various criteria, more or less subjective, are generally used for the definition of scenarios. Furthermore, the number of scenarios identified and compared is generally limited; this may entail that only the best option among a limited set of possibilities can be selected, instead of identifying the best of all possible combinations. As a result, the advisability of identifying an integrated life cycle-based methodological approach that allows finding the most environmentally sound scenario among all of those that are theoretically possible is stressed.

  9. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  10. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  11. Phase distribution studies in metallic alloy SIMFUEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolay, S.; Basu, M.; Kaity, S.; Das, D.

    2014-01-01

    Utilization of U-Pu based alloy fuel in the three stage nuclear power generation program in India is one of the important mandate due to shorter doubling time for breeding of the fissile isotopes ( 239 Pu and 233 U) to be used in Th based driver fuel in the 3rd stage. Reported information shows successful performance of fuel with porous alloy matrix in achieving 10-15 atom % burn-up. The porosity and microstructure of this alloy are strongly dependent on the composition and phases of the fission products incorporated in the matrix. The porosity influences the extent of fuel swelling and fission gas release, which affects the performance and integrity of the fuel. This study addresses to these issues taking the base alloy U-10wt% Zr

  12. Study of incommensurable phases in quantum chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vollmer, J.

    1990-12-01

    The phases of quantum chains with spin-1/2 and spin-1-respresentations of the SU(2) algebra and the phases of a mixed spin-1/2 / spin-1 chain are reported and investigated. These chains are models with an XX-interaction in a magnetic field. In a certain range of the magnetic field the groundstate magnetisation depends continuously on the magnetic field and the energy gaps vanish, this is a so called 'floating phase'. Within this phase the energy spectrum is a conformal spectrum, comparable to the spectrum of the Gauss-model, but the momenta have a macroscopic part. These macroscopic momenta are connected to oscillating correlation functions, whose periods are determined by the magnetic field. The transition from the floating phase to an existing phase with constant groundstate magnetisation is a Pokrovsky-Talapov-transition, it is a universal transition in all three models. (orig.) [de

  13. Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: insights and experiences from 23 case studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisa Oteros-Rozas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Participatory scenario planning (PSP is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect on existing practices and their appropriate application for different objectives and contexts at the local scale, as well as on their potential perceived outcomes. We contribute to theoretical and empirical frameworks by analyzing how and why researchers assess social-ecological systems using place-based PSP, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of social-ecological settings by exploring seven aspects: (1 the context; (2 the original motivations and objectives; (3 the methodological approach; (4 the process; (5 the content of the scenarios; (6 the outputs of the research; and (7 the monitoring and evaluation of the PSP process. This was complemented by a reflection on strengths and weaknesses of using PSP for the place-based social-ecological research. We conclude that the application of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater systematic monitoring and evaluation to assess its impact on the promotion of collective action for transitions to sustainability and the adaptation to global environmental change and its challenges.

  14. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  15. Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

    2016-01-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

  16. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

    2016-02-11

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  17. Integrated methods and scenario development for urban groundwater management and protection during tunnel road construction: a case study of urban hydrogeology in the city of Basel, Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epting, J.; Huggenberger, P.; Rauber, M.

    2008-05-01

    In the northwestern area of Basel, Switzerland, a tunnel highway connects the French highway A35 (Mulhouse Basel) with the Swiss A2 (Basel Gotthard Milano). The subsurface highway construction was associated with significant impacts on the urban groundwater system. Parts of this area were formerly contaminated by industrial wastes, and groundwater resources are extensively used by industry. During some construction phases, considerable groundwater drawdown was necessary, leading to major changes in the groundwater flow regime. Sufficient groundwater supply for industrial users and possible groundwater pollution due to interactions with contaminated areas had to be taken into account. A groundwater management system is presented, comprising extensive groundwater monitoring, high-resolution numerical groundwater modeling, and the development and evaluation of different scenarios. This integrated approach facilitated the evaluation of the sum of impacts, and their interaction in time and space with changing hydrological boundary conditions. For all project phases, changes of the groundwater system had to be evaluated in terms of the various goals and requirements. Although the results of this study are case-specific, the overall conceptual approach and methodologies applied may be directly transferred to other urban areas.

  18. Scenario-based resilience assessment framework for critical infrastructure systems: Case study for seismic resilience of seaports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafieezadeh, Abdollah; Ivey Burden, Lindsay

    2014-01-01

    A number of metrics in the past have been proposed and numerically implemented to assess the overall performance of large systems during natural disasters and their recovery in the aftermath of the events. Among such performance measures, resilience is a reliable metric. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework for scenario-based resilience assessment of infrastructure systems. The method accounts for uncertainties in the process including the correlation of the earthquake intensity measures, fragility assessment of structural components, estimation of repair requirements, the repair process, and finally the service demands. The proposed method is applied to a hypothetical seaport terminal and the system level performance of the seaport is assessed using various performance metrics. Results of this analysis have shown that medium to large seismic events may significantly disrupt the operation of seaports right after the event and the recovery process may take months. The proposed framework will enable port stakeholders to systematically assess the most-likely performance of the system during expected future earthquake events. - Highlights: • A scenario-based framework for seismic resilience assessment of systems is presented. • Seismic resilience of a hypothetical seaport with realistic settings is studied. • Berth availability is found to govern seaport functionality following earthquakes

  19. A synthesis of possible separation and transmutation scenarios studied in the frame of the French law for waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grouiller, Jean-Paul; Boucher, Lionel; Bourdot, Patrick; Varaine, Frederic; Delpech, Marc; Warin, Dominique

    2005-01-01

    In the frame of the French law for the waste management, we have studied different dynamic scenarios from the present fleet which consists in a single stage of Plutonium recycling in PWRs to the future generation systems taking into account different possible solutions to transmute the minor actinides. This paper presents a synthesis of the different solutions with the accessible technologies (PWRs or SFRs) or with the innovative concepts (ADT, GFRs), analyses the impact on the fuel cycle and on the characteristics of the different waste packages and defines an optimised scenario for managing the actinides in the French fleet. The results presented in this paper give the impact on: The natural uranium resources, The inventory function of time, of different elements (Pu, Np, Am, Cm) at each stage of the fuel cycle and in the wastes, The physic characteristics (thermal power, radiation sources) of the fuel and of the wastes. The fast reactor systems are the more efficiency to manage minor actinides and present less impacts in the fuel cycle. (author)

  20. Power Generation Expansion Optimization Model Considering Multi-Scenario Electricity Demand Constraints: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Wang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Reasonable and effective power planning contributes a lot to energy efficiency improvement, as well as the formulation of future economic and energy policies for a region. Since only a few provinces in China have nuclear power plants so far, nuclear power plants were not considered in many provincial-level power planning models. As an extremely important source of power generation in the future, the role of nuclear power plants can never be overlooked. In this paper, a comprehensive and detailed optimization model of provincial-level power generation expansion considering biomass and nuclear power plants is established from the perspective of electricity demand uncertainty. This model has been successfully applied to the case study of Zhejiang Province. The findings suggest that the nuclear power plants will contribute 9.56% of the total installed capacity, and it will become the second stable electricity source. The lowest total discounted cost is 1033.28 billion RMB and the fuel cost accounts for a large part of the total cost (about 69%. Different key performance indicators (KPI differentiate electricity demand in scenarios that are used to test the model. Low electricity demand in the development mode of the comprehensive adjustment scenario (COML produces the optimal power development path, as it provides the lowest discounted cost.

  1. Scenario Studies on Effects of Soil Infiltration Rates, Land Slope, and Furrow Irrigation Characteristics on Furrow Irrigation-Induced Erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dibal, Jibrin M; Ramalan, A A; Mudiare, O J; Igbadun, H E

    2014-01-01

    Furrow irrigation proceeds under several soil-water-furrow hydraulics interaction dynamics. The soil erosion consequences from such interactions in furrow irrigation in Samaru had remained uncertain. A furrow irrigation-induced erosion (FIIE) model was used to simulate the potential severity of soil erosion in irrigated furrows due to interactive effects of infiltration rates, land slope, and some furrow irrigation characteristics under different scenarios. The furrow irrigation characteristics considered were furrow lengths, widths, and stream sizes. The model itself was developed using the dimensional analysis approach. The scenarios studied were the interactive effects of furrow lengths, furrow widths, and slopes steepness; infiltration rates and furrow lengths; and stream sizes, furrow lengths, and slopes steepness on potential furrow irrigation-induced erosion, respectively. The severity of FIIE was found to relate somewhat linearly with slope and stream size, and inversely with furrow lengths and furrow width. The worst soil erosion (378.05 t/ha/yr) was found as a result of the interactive effects of 0.65 m furrow width, 50 m furrow length, and 0.25% slope steepness; and the least soil erosion (0.013 t/ha/yr) was induced by the combined effects of 0.5 l/s, 200 m furrow length, and 0.05% slope steepness. Evidently considering longer furrows in furrow irrigation designs would be a better alternative of averting excessive FIIE.

  2. Do you agree with the doctor's decision to continue treatment?: A scenario-based study of hospital nurses in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Ingravallo

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: A lack of social consensus on the duty to comply with a patient's request to forgo treatment was reported in Italy, but little is known about the nurses' attitudes regarding this issue. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Questionnaire including two clinical scenarios regarding doctor's decision to not comply with a competent patient's request to forgo treatment was administered to all nurses (n = 487 of an Italian medium-sized hospital. RESULTS: Eighty-five percent of nurses completed the study. Although 83% of participants supported a general right to self-determination, around 40% of them agreed with the doctor's decision in both scenarios. The multivariate analyses adjusted for gender, age, length of professional experience, and care setting showed that the agreement with the doctor's decision was significantly associated with nurses' personal background beliefs about self-determination and quality of life. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Many nurses have difficulty in accepting a patient's request to forgo treatment. Increasing ethical reflection and discussion at both educational and professional level, and introducing ethical consultation services would be essential to develop a consistent approach to end-of-life decisions in Italian hospitals.

  3. A scenarios study on future demands on container and truck sizes of the future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Kraaijenhagen; Jan Jansen; H. Graser; Stef Weijers; I. Szylar

    2012-01-01

    To what extent will future demands of worldwide operating parties, regarding the (tertiary) packaging of their freight flows, determine or influence the future dimensions of freight trucks? That is the question we address to in this paper. In this study we have studied what container sizes may fit

  4. Effects of cattle and manure management on the nutrient economy of mixed farms in East Africa: A scenario study

    OpenAIRE

    Snijders, P.J.M.; Meer, van der, H.G.; Onduru, D.D.; Ebanyat, P.; Ergano, K.; Zake, J.Y.K.; Wouters, A.P.; Gachimbi, L.N.; Keulen, van, H.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores effects of animal and manure management in a dairy unit on the nutrient economy of crop-livestock farms in East Africa. For this purpose, 8 cattle management scenarios have been developed based on farming systems in Mbeere, Kenya (extensive), Wakiso, Uganda (semi-intensive) and Kibichoi, Kenya (intensive). Three baseline scenarios represent present-day cattle management; five improved scenarios use the same dairy breeds but have improved nutrition, using younger grass, mor...

  5. Comparative study of accelerator driven system (ADS) of different transmutation scenarios for actinides in advanced nuclear fuel cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embid-Segura, M.; Gonzalez Romero, M.E.; Perez Parra, A.

    2001-01-01

    The full text follows. In recent years transmutation has raised as a complementary option to solve the problem of the long-lived radioactive waste produced in nuclear power plants. The main advantages expected from transmutation are the reduction in volume of the high level waste and a significant decrease in the long-term radiotoxicity inventory, with a probable impact in the final costs and potential risks of the geological repository. This paper will describe the evaluation of different systems proposed for actinide transmutation, their integration in the waste management process, their viability, performances and limitations. Particular attention is taking of comparing transmutation scenarios where the actinides are transmuted inside fertile (U, Th) or inert matrix. This study has been supported by ENRESA inside the CIEMAT-ENRESA collaboration for the study of long-lived isotope transmutation. (authors)

  6. Preservice Preschool Teachers' Responses to Bullying Scenarios: The Roles of Years of Study and Empathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heqing Huang

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The present study is aim to examine whether preservice preschool teachers' respond differently to physical, verbal and relational bullying, and how their years of study and trait empathy related their responses. There were 242 preservice teachers in the present study. Empathy was measured with the self-report Interpersonal Reactive Index; the Bullying Attitude Questionnaire was used to assess their perceptions of incident seriousness, their sympathy toward the victim of the bullying, and their possibility to intervene in the situation. The results revealed that the participants responded most to physical bullying and least to relational bullying. Interestingly, responses to relational bullying tended to decrease during the university period. The empathy dimensions played different roles in the participants' responses to bullying, while cognitive empathy have little relationship with the participants' responses to bullying, emotional empathy played a more complex role in the participants' responses to bullying: empathic concerns moderated the relationship between years of study and responses to bullying, and personal distress negatively predicted the participants' responses to all types of bullying. The implications for bullying intervention and the suggestion for teacher education are discussed.

  7. Preservice Preschool Teachers' Responses to Bullying Scenarios: The Roles of Years of Study and Empathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Heqing; Liu, Yanchun; Chen, Yulu

    2018-01-01

    The present study is aim to examine whether preservice preschool teachers' respond differently to physical, verbal and relational bullying, and how their years of study and trait empathy related their responses. There were 242 preservice teachers in the present study. Empathy was measured with the self-report Interpersonal Reactive Index; the Bullying Attitude Questionnaire was used to assess their perceptions of incident seriousness, their sympathy toward the victim of the bullying, and their possibility to intervene in the situation. The results revealed that the participants responded most to physical bullying and least to relational bullying. Interestingly, responses to relational bullying tended to decrease during the university period. The empathy dimensions played different roles in the participants' responses to bullying, while cognitive empathy have little relationship with the participants' responses to bullying, emotional empathy played a more complex role in the participants' responses to bullying: empathic concerns moderated the relationship between years of study and responses to bullying, and personal distress negatively predicted the participants' responses to all types of bullying. The implications for bullying intervention and the suggestion for teacher education are discussed. PMID:29515492

  8. The effects of awarness of social dilemmas on advertising budget setting: A scenario study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyn, Adriaan T.H.; Riezebos, Rik

    2001-01-01

    In this study, which examines the dynamics involved in setting advertising budgets, the social dilemma theory was applied in an attempt to understand the interdependency problems of advertisers in their investment decisions. In an experiment, a budget decision was made for a company after a period

  9. Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

    2018-02-01

    Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

  10. Mobile free-space optical communications: a feasibility study of various battlefield scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Alan; Al-Akkoumi, Mouhammad K.; Sluss, James J., Jr.

    2012-06-01

    Free Space Optics (FSO) technology was originally envisioned to be a viable solution for the provision of high bandwidth optical connectivity in the last mile of today's telecommunications infrastructure. Due to atmospheric limitations inherent to FSO technology, FSO is now widely envisioned as a solution for the provision of high bandwidth, temporary mobile communications links. The need for FSO communications links will increase as mobility is introduced to this technology. In this paper, a theoretical solution for adding mobility to FSO communication links is introduced. Three-dimensional power estimation studies are presented to represent mobile FSO transmission under various weather conditions. Three wavelengths, 0.85, 1.55 and 10 um, are tested and compared to illustrate the pros and cons of each source wavelength used for transmission, depending on prevalent weather conditions and atmospheric turbulence conditions. A simulation analysis of the transmission properties of the source wavelengths used in the study is shown.

  11. Contributions of ANPEd to the consolidation process of Brazilian Postgraduate studies: historical paths and current scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Margarida Machado

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This article results the bibliographic and documentary search whose the purpose is reconstitute the historicity to search association, in the context of 50 years to the politic institutionalization on Postgraduate in Brazil, with specific emphasis in the ANPEd - National Association of Postgraduate Studies and Research in Education. The analysis was performed based in the recent politics diary association, especially in the monitoring and positioning in the approval of Law 13.005/2014, which deals with the National Education Plan 2014-2024, with reference to Gramsci’s conception of Expanded State. Studies indicate tensions and challenges faced by ANPEd, from the participation of its members in political society, where the formulators change to executors of national policies, while showing the potential and limits of the association to remain as an entity autonomous civil society in defense of a public, free, secular and quality education for all.

  12. Preliminary Studies on Existing Scenario of Selected Soil Property in Cheddikulam DS Division Vavuniya, Sri Lanka

    OpenAIRE

    M.A. R. Aashifa; P. Loganathan

    2017-01-01

     This study was conducted to quantify the spatial variability of soil properties, use this information to produce accurate map by means of ordinary kriging and find the ways to reclaim the problem soil and make suggestions to cultivate the crop variety which is suitable for the existing soil property.70 sampling points were selected for that research using stratified random sampling method. Stratification was based on the type of land cover, and following land cover patterns were identified f...

  13. Study of Scenarios Related to Design Extension Conditions of PHWR Using PSA Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, H. Y.; Yi, S. D.; Kim, S. R. [NESS, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    Studies to establish the event classification framework and acceptance criteria for an event that exceeds the existing DBAs in order to enhance the safety operation of nuclear power plants in accordance with the domestic nuclear safety laws amended recently have been doing briskly in the country. In this perspective, a study of DECs for domestic PWRs has already begun, and accordingly, studies to cope with BDBAs including DECs for domestic CANDU plants also are required. In this paper, a postulated event which might be included into DECs for domestic CANDU is analyzed by CATHENA code, and Probabilistic Safety Assessment(PSA) data needed for selecting events for DECs are drawn. In this paper, based on the assumption that all the heat sinks and power are not available, countermeasure capability against loss of safety functions such as power supply system in domestic CANDU are assessed. The results and available power and heat sink source which are the required coping facilities for mitigating the accident are presented and the available limited time also are assessed. Provided that ways of long-term core cooling are secured later, it is expected that the safety functions of a plant can be secured even in the extremely severe natural disasters.

  14. Studies on phase kinetics of new superalloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weisbrodt, A.; Penkalla, H.J.; Schubert, F.; Nickel, H.

    1990-08-01

    At the development of new ODS (Oxide-Dispersion-Strengthened) alloys for components being exposed to hot-gas temperatures nickel-base alloys and ODS alloys have been investigated. The experimental work mainly referred to phase investigations of thermally loaded samples. The addition of alloying elements will have a decisive influence on the γ'-phase fraction, γ'-lattice parameter, the morphology as well as the coarsening behaviour of the γ'-phase under temperature load. The main characteristics of ODS alloys are Y,Al-mixed oxides and microstructural inhomogenities. As for MA6000 a Time-Temperature-Precipitation diagram has been elaborated. By means of the improved computer programme PHASCALC for phase and N v (= average electron vacancy concentration) - value calculation many microstructural parameters such as the γ/γ'-misfit, the solution of the γ'-phase and melting temperatures can be determined. Tensile tests made at temperatures above 900deg C have shown that the strengthening parameters are dependent on alloy composition, temperature conditions, γ'-phase fraction and oxide dispersion content. (orig.) [de

  15. Study of SmS properties in the low pressure phase (black phase)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bordier, G.

    1986-01-01

    SmS was studied for the transition from low pressure phase (black phase) to high pressure phase with an intermediate valence. But the study of the black phase is very rich. The variations of electron transport properties with pressure at low temperature show a semi-metal phase located, in the pressure-temperature diagram in the black phase for pressure over 4 kbars, corresponding to the phase B'of the doping-temperature diagram. Electron spin resonance shows a lack of sulfur and nearby this defect a samarium ion, magnetically coupled with the matrix, presents a divalent trivalent transition. Resonance lines are broadened with temperature. Conductivity relaxations occur at low pressure and low temperature by trapping a conduction electron, by magnetic exchange giving a bounded magnetic polaron. The relaxation time at null magnetic field is activated. An approximation of trapping barrier and critical field corresponding the maximum magnetoresistance is given by a model [fr

  16. Fire tests to study heat insulation scenario of galvanized rolling shutters sprayed with intumescent coatings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuang, Ying-Ji; Chuang, Ying-Hung; Lin, Ching-Yuan

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study, through standard furnace fire tests and a natural fire test, is to analyze the heat insulation behavior of galvanized rolling shutters sprayed with intumescent coatings. The following experiments and associated estimations demonstrated that in the 1-h standard fire-resisting tests, the radiant heat flux at a measuring point horizontally 1 m away from the center of an unexposed surface the radiation could reach 4.64 W/cm 2 for the traditional uninsulated galvanized rolling shutter, and that the radiant heat flux would be substantially decreased to 0.22 W/cm 2 for one with intumescent coating of 0.3 mm target thickness, which, during the heating process, expanded about 100 times in volume and then generated a certain insulation effect. Therefore the intumescent coatings on galvanized rolling shutters have been proved by this study to be a feasible method of insulation, which can be applied in the future fire compartment design of buildings.

  17. A Usability and Learnability Case Study of Glass Flight Deck Interfaces and Pilot Interactions through Scenario-based Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Cino, Thomas J., II

    In the aviation industry, digitally produced and presented flight, navigation, and aircraft information is commonly referred to as glass flight decks. Glass flight decks are driven by computer-based subsystems and have long been a part of military and commercial aviation sectors. Over the past 15 years, the General Aviation (GA) sector of the aviation industry has become a recent beneficiary of the rapid advancement of computer-based glass flight deck (GFD) systems. While providing the GA pilot considerable enhancements in the quality of information about the status and operations of the aircraft, training pilots on the use of glass flight decks is often delivered with traditional methods (e.g. textbooks, PowerPoint presentations, user manuals, and limited computer-based training modules). These training methods have been reported as less than desirable in learning to use the glass flight deck interface. Difficulties in achieving a complete understanding of functional and operational characteristics of the GFD systems, acquiring a full understanding of the interrelationships of the varied subsystems, and handling the wealth of flight information provided have been reported. Documented pilot concerns of poor user experience and satisfaction, and problems with the learning the complex and sophisticated interface of the GFD are additional issues with current pilot training approaches. A case study was executed to explore ways to improve training using GFD systems at a Midwestern aviation university. The researcher investigated if variations in instructional systems design and training methods for learning glass flight deck technology would affect the perceptions and attitudes of pilots of the learnability (an attribute of usability) of the glass flight deck interface. Specifically, this study investigated the effectiveness of scenario-based training (SBT) methods to potentially improve pilot knowledge and understanding of a GFD system, and overall pilot user

  18. Transparent Gap Filler Solution over a DVB-RCS2 Satellite Platform in a Railway Scenario: Performance Evaluation Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peppino Fazio

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, a performance study of a system equipped with a transparent Gap Filler solution in a DVB-RCS2 satellite platform has been provided. In particular, a simulation model based on a 3-state Markov chain, overcoming the blockage status through the introduction of a transparent Gap Filler (using devices on both tunnel sides has been implemented. The handover time, due to switching mechanism between satellite and Gap Filler, has been taken into account. As reference scenario, the railway market has been considered, which is characterized by a N-LOS condition, due to service disruptions caused by tunnels, vegetation and buildings. The system performance, in terms of end-to-end delay, queue size and packet loss percentage, have been evaluated, in order to prove the goodness of communications in a real railroad path.

  19. Current scenario of the wind energy in Pakistan challenges and future perspectives: A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazhar H. Baloch

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Electricity plays an important role in the socioeconomic growth and social prosperity of any country. It is to be considered as the basic need for human development. Nowadays, low production of electricity is a serious problem in Pakistan, which directly restricts the development of the state. One-third of Pakistan’s population does not have any electricity in the rural areas and about 10–12 hours load shedding in urban areas and is quite common. Although, the state of Pakistan always shows a deficit in the conventional resources, but no progress was also being made in the renewable resources such as the wind and solar energy. Therefore, it is better to utilize these natural assets in order to fulfill the electricity supply the country. In this manuscript, our main objective is to study and outlooks the country energy profile situation vis-à-vis wind energy potential characteristics of the most important wind corridor in the southern part of the country. Pakistan has around 1100 kilometers (km coastal line for the wind energy potential, but in this manuscript, we have chosen one of the most suitable wind corridors of the southern part of the country. We also tried to prove theoretically that this wind zone is more favorable for country consumer demand. Moreover, future perspective and the major challenges during windmill implementation is also being discussed herein.

  20. Large-scale wind power in New Brunswick : a regional scenario study towards 2025

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-08-01

    This paper discussed the large-scale development of wind power in New Brunswick and evaluated Danish experiences with wind development as a template for developing wind resources in the Maritimes region. The study showed that New Brunswick and the Maritimes region have good wind resources, and that the province will gain significant economic benefits from deploying between 5500 and 7500 MW of wind power capacity by 2025. Wind power development will contribute to the security of supply in the region and reduce air pollution. Carbon regulation and renewable portfolio standards will improve the competitiveness of wind power. Electricity generated by wind power plants in the Maritimes can be sold to other provinces in Canada, as well as to the heavily populated New England region of the United States. A high level of cooperation between markets in the Maritimes area and neighbouring New England and Quebec systems will be required in addition to load flow analyses of electricity systems. Denmark's experiences with developing wind power indicate that existing market designs must be restructured to allow for higher levels of competition. A strong system operator is required to integrate wind power into the system. It was concluded that strong political leadership is required to ensure the sustainable development of the region. 5 refs., 4 tabs., 9 figs

  1. Case studies on genetically modified organisms (GMOs): Potential risk scenarios and associated health indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Santis, Barbara; Stockhofe, Norbert; Wal, Jean-Michel; Weesendorp, Eefke; Lallès, Jean-Paul; van Dijk, Jeroen; Kok, Esther; De Giacomo, Marzia; Einspanier, Ralf; Onori, Roberta; Brera, Carlo; Bikker, Paul; van der Meulen, Jan; Kleter, G

    2018-07-01

    Within the frame of the EU-funded MARLON project, background data were reviewed to explore the possibility of measuring health indicators during post-market monitoring for potential effects of feeds, particularly genetically modified (GM) feeds, on livestock animal health, if applicable. Four case studies (CSs) of potential health effects on livestock were framed and the current knowledge of a possible effect of GM feed was reviewed. Concerning allergenicity (CS-1), there are no case-reports of allergic reactions or immunotoxic effects resulting from GM feed consumption as compared with non-GM feed. The likelihood of horizontal gene transfer (HGT; CS-2) of GMO-related DNA to different species is not different from that for other DNA and is unlikely to raise health concerns. Concerning mycotoxins (CS-3), insect-resistant GM maize may reduce fumonisins contamination as a health benefit, yet other Fusarium toxins and aflatoxins show inconclusive results. For nutritionally altered crops (CS-4), the genetic modifications applied lead to compositional changes which require special considerations of their nutritional impacts. No health indicators were thus identified except for possible beneficial impacts of reduced mycotoxins and nutritional enhancement. More generally, veterinary health data should ideally be linked with animal exposure information so as to be able to establish cause-effect relationships. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. The production of cellulosic ethanol using SMR. A prefeasibility study for the Italian scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Locatelli, Giorgio; Mancini, Mauro

    2011-01-01

    Small Medium Reactors (SMR) can play an important role in the global nuclear renaissance coupling the production of Electrical Energy (EE) with by-products useful to increase their economic attractiveness and enhance the public acceptability. Light Water Reactors (LWR) have an average thermal efficiency of about 33%-35%, therefore two third of the thermal energy produced by the nuclear reaction is usually wasted. Nowadays there are industries able to use this thermal energy in an efficient way. Among the other the production of cellulosic ethanol seems one of the most attractive for the coupling with a nuclear power plant. This industry can exploit two by-products of a nuclear reactor: the wide area around the plant (the so called Emergency Planning Zone - EPZ) and the residual thermal energy post turbines. Cellulosic ethanol is a bio-fuel produced from non-edible parts of plants or wood. It is produced from lignocellulose the material composing much of the mass of plants. Production of ethanol (that can be used as a fuel) from lignocellulose can avoid the usage of food grain or precious vegetables usable for the human nutrition, but requires an enormous amount of heat in the production process. A SMR can be the ideal source of this thermal energy. The paper presents a prefeasibility study with the economic and strategic assessment of coupling an SMR and a cellulosic ethanol plant in the north of Italy. After an introduction on the ethanol production the papers describe the market of this product and the production process. Then it provides the cost estimation of coupling the SMR with the production plant. The results point out as this combination can be very attractive to enhance the production of ethanol since is really cost competitive and does not produce any green house gases (GHG). (author)

  3. Pathology informatics fellowship retreats: The use of interactive scenarios and case studies as pathology informatics teaching tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roy E Lee

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Last year, our pathology informatics fellowship added informatics-based interactive case studies to its existing educational platform of operational and research rotations, clinical conferences, a common core curriculum with an accompanying didactic course, and national meetings. Methods: The structure of the informatics case studies was based on the traditional business school case study format. Three different formats were used, varying in length from short, 15-minute scenarios to more formal multiple hour-long case studies. Case studies were presented over the course of three retreats (Fall 2011, Winter 2012, and Spring 2012 and involved both local and visiting faculty and fellows. Results: Both faculty and fellows found the case studies and the retreats educational, valuable, and enjoyable. From this positive feedback, we plan to incorporate the retreats in future academic years as an educational component of our fellowship program. Conclusions: Interactive case studies appear to be valuable in teaching several aspects of pathology informatics that are difficult to teach in more traditional venues (rotations and didactic class sessions. Case studies have become an important component of our fellowship′s educational platform.

  4. Pathology informatics fellowship retreats: The use of interactive scenarios and case studies as pathology informatics teaching tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Roy E; McClintock, David S; Balis, Ulysses J; Baron, Jason M; Becich, Michael J; Beckwith, Bruce A; Brodsky, Victor B; Carter, Alexis B; Dighe, Anand S; Haghighi, Mehrvash; Hipp, Jason D; Henricks, Walter H; Kim, Jiyeon Y; Klepseis, Veronica E; Kuo, Frank C; Lane, William J; Levy, Bruce P; Onozato, Maristela L; Park, Seung L; Sinard, John H; Tuthill, Mark J; Gilbertson, John R

    2012-01-01

    Last year, our pathology informatics fellowship added informatics-based interactive case studies to its existing educational platform of operational and research rotations, clinical conferences, a common core curriculum with an accompanying didactic course, and national meetings. The structure of the informatics case studies was based on the traditional business school case study format. Three different formats were used, varying in length from short, 15-minute scenarios to more formal multiple hour-long case studies. Case studies were presented over the course of three retreats (Fall 2011, Winter 2012, and Spring 2012) and involved both local and visiting faculty and fellows. Both faculty and fellows found the case studies and the retreats educational, valuable, and enjoyable. From this positive feedback, we plan to incorporate the retreats in future academic years as an educational component of our fellowship program. Interactive case studies appear to be valuable in teaching several aspects of pathology informatics that are difficult to teach in more traditional venues (rotations and didactic class sessions). Case studies have become an important component of our fellowship's educational platform.

  5. Studies of matrix diffusion in gas phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartikainen, K.; Timonen, J.; Vaeaetaeinen, K.; Pietarila, H.

    1994-03-01

    The diffusion of solutes from fractures into rock matrix is an important factor in the safety analysis of disposal of radioactive waste. Laboratory measurements are needed to complement field investigations for a reliable determination of the necessary transport parameters. Measurements of diffusion coefficients in tight rock samples are usually time consuming because the diffusion processes are slow. On the other hand it is well known that diffusion coefficients in the gas phase are roughly four orders of magnitude larger than those in the liquid phase. Therefore, for samples whose structures do not change much upon drying, it is possible to estimate the diffusion properties of the liquid phase when the properties of the gas phase are known. Advantages of the gas method are quick and easy measurements. In the measurements nitrogen was used as the carrier gas and helium as the tracer gas, and standard techniques have been used for helium detection. Techniques have been developed for both channel flow and through-diffusion measurements. The breakthrough curves have been measured in every experiment and all measurements have been modelled by using appropriate analytical models. As a result matrix porosities and effective diffusion coefficients in the gas phase have been determined. (12 refs., 21 figs., 6 tabs.)

  6. Preliminary Studies on Existing Scenario of Selected Soil Property in Cheddikulam DS Division Vavuniya, Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.A. R. Aashifa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available  This study was conducted to quantify the spatial variability of soil properties, use this information to produce accurate map by means of ordinary kriging and find the ways to reclaim the problem soil and make suggestions to cultivate the crop variety which is suitable for the existing soil property.70 sampling points were selected for that research using stratified random sampling method. Stratification was based on the type of land cover, and following land cover patterns were identified forest patches, agriculture land patches, grass land patches and catchments. Sampling points were randomly selected from each land cover types. Minimum distance between two adjacent sampling points was 500m. Soil samples were analyzed for pH, EC, exchangeable K, available P. In each location, soils were collected from top to - 30 cm depth (root zone using a core sampler and sub soil samples were collected around the geo-reference point to obtain a composite sample. Geostatistical tool of the software (ArcGIS 10.2.2. trail version was used to construct semi-variograms and spatial structure analysis for the variables. Geostatistical estimation had done by kriging. 13% of agriculture land area was acidic soil and 5.7% alkaline soil. 13% of agriculture land area was identified as saline soil. 67.11% of agriculture lands contain more phosphorous concentration than the optimum range. 3.4% agriculture lands contain higher potassium concentration than the optimum range. 98% of forest lands and 100% of grass lands contains phosphorous concentration higher than the optimum range. But forest lands and catchments shows lower level of potassium concentration. 22% of grass lands contain higher potassium than the optimum level. Agriculture practices leads to change in the soil hence identified soil problems should be reclaimed in order to maintain the fertility of soil for sustainable production. Proper management of soil can be a better solution for supporting the

  7. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  8. APPLICATION OF SOIL LOSS SCENARIOS USING THE ROMSEM MODEL DEPENDING ON MAXIMUM LAND USE PRETABILITY CLASSES. A CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SANDA ROȘCA

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Application of Soil Loss Scenarios Using the ROMSEM Model Depending on Maximum Land Use Pretability Classes. A Case Study. Practicing a modern agriculture that takes into consideration the favourability conditions and the natural resources of a territory represents one of the main national objectives. Due to the importance of the agricultural land, which prevails among the land use types from the Niraj river basin, as well as the pedological and geomorphological characteristics, different areas where soil erosion is above the accepted thresholds were identified by applying the ROMSEM model. In order to do so, a GIS database was used, regrouping quantitative information regarding soil type, land use, climate and hydrogeology, used as indicators in the model. Estimations for the potential soil erosion have been made on the entire basin as well as on its subbasins. The essential role played by the morphometrical characteristics has also been highlighted (concavity, convexity, slope length etc.. Taking into account the strong agricultural characteristic of the analysed territory, the scoring method was employed for the identification of crop favourability in the case of wheat, barley, corn, sunflower, sugar beet, potato, soy and pea-bean. The results have been used as input data for the C coefficient (crop/vegetation and management factor in the ROMSEM model that was applied for the present land use conditions, as well as for other four scenarios depicting the land use types with maximum favourability. The theoretical, modelled values of the soil erosion were obtained dependent on land use, while the other variables of the model were kept constant.

  9. A study on the future of unconventional oil development under different oil price scenarios: A system dynamics approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosseini, Seyed Hossein; Shakouri, Hamed G.

    2016-01-01

    Fluctuations in the oil global market has been a critical topic for the world economy so that analyzing and forecasting the conventional oil production rate has been examined by many researchers thoroughly. However, the dynamics of the market has not been studied systematically with regard to the new emerging competitors, namely unconventional oil. In this paper, the future trend of conventional and unconventional oil production and capacity expansion rates are analyzed using system dynamics approach. To do so, a supply-side modeling approach is utilized while main effective loops are modeled mathematically as follows: technological learning and progress, long and short-term profitability of oil capacity expansion and production, and oil proved reserve limitations. The proposed model is used to analyze conventional and unconventional oil production shares, up to 2025, under different oil price scenarios. The results show that conventional oil production rate ranges from 79.995 to 87.044 MB/day, which is 75–80 percent of total oil production rate, while unconventional oil production rate ranges from 19.615 to 28.584 MB/day. Simulation results reveal that unconventional oil can gain a considerable market share in the short run, although conventional oil will remain as the major source for the market in the long run. - Highlights: • Variables and loops affecting oil production are formulated mathematically. • Shares of conventional and unconventional oil in the global oil market is analyzed. • Oil production rate under different oil price scenarios up to 2025 is simulated. • Unconventional oil would obtain a considerable share in market in the short-term. • A late peak for the conventional oil resources would occur.

  10. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H; Bergmark, M

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  11. Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

    2014-01-01

    In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of “Treatment after Pollution” has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives. PMID:25207492

  12. Simulation and evaluation of pollution load reduction scenarios for water environmental management: a case study of inflow river of Taihu Lake, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

    2014-09-09

    In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of "Treatment after Pollution" has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives.

  13. Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruibin Zhang

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of “Treatment after Pollution” has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives.

  14. Two Scenarios for Landfills Design in Special Conditions Using the HELP Model: A Case Study in Babylon Governorate, Iraq

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Chabuk

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The sound design of landfills is essential in order to protect human health and the environment (air, water, and soil. The study area, Babylon Governorate, is situated in the middle of Iraq, and is distinguished by a hot climate and shallow groundwater. The governorate did not have landfill sites that meet international criteria; in addition, the groundwater depth in Babylon Governorate is commonly shallow. Previously, the most important criteria for the study area and GIS software were used to select the best sites for locating landfills in the major cities of the governorate. In this study, the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP 3.95D model was applied in order to ensure that there was no leakage of the leachate that results from the waste in the selected landfill sites. It is the most commonly utilized model for landfill design, and it is used to estimate water inflow through the soil layers. For the present study, to avoid groundwater pollution by leachate from a landfill site due to the shallow groundwater depth, compacted waste was placed on the surface using two height scenarios (2 m and 4 m. This design was developed using the soil properties of the selected sites coupled with the weather parameters in Babylon Governorate (precipitation, temperature, solar, and evapotranspiration for a 12-year period covering 2005 to 2016. The results from both of the suggested landfill designs showed an absence of leachate from the bottom liner.

  15. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  16. The Scenario Planning Paradox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

  17. Application of scenario analysis and multiagent technique in land-use planning: a case study on Sanjiang wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Huan; Ni, Shi-Jun; Kong, Bo; He, Zheng-Wei; Zhang, Cheng-Jiang; Zhang, Shu-Qing; Pan, Xin; Xia, Chao-Xu; Li, Xuan-Qiong

    2013-01-01

    Land-use planning has triggered debates on social and environmental values, in which two key questions will be faced: one is how to see different planning simulation results instantaneously and apply the results back to interactively assist planning work; the other is how to ensure that the planning simulation result is scientific and accurate. To answer these questions, the objective of this paper is to analyze whether and how a bridge can be built between qualitative and quantitative approaches for land-use planning work and to find out a way to overcome the gap that exists between the ability to construct computer simulation models to aid integrated land-use plan making and the demand for them by planning professionals. The study presented a theoretical framework of land-use planning based on scenario analysis (SA) method and multiagent system (MAS) simulation integration and selected freshwater wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain of China as a case study area. Study results showed that MAS simulation technique emphasizing quantitative process effectively compensated for the SA method emphasizing qualitative process, which realized the organic combination of qualitative and quantitative land-use planning work, and then provided a new idea and method for the land-use planning and sustainable managements of land resources.

  18. Application of Scenario Analysis and Multiagent Technique in Land-Use Planning: A Case Study on Sanjiang Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan Yu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Land-use planning has triggered debates on social and environmental values, in which two key questions will be faced: one is how to see different planning simulation results instantaneously and apply the results back to interactively assist planning work; the other is how to ensure that the planning simulation result is scientific and accurate. To answer these questions, the objective of this paper is to analyze whether and how a bridge can be built between qualitative and quantitative approaches for land-use planning work and to find out a way to overcome the gap that exists between the ability to construct computer simulation models to aid integrated land-use plan making and the demand for them by planning professionals. The study presented a theoretical framework of land-use planning based on scenario analysis (SA method and multiagent system (MAS simulation integration and selected freshwater wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain of China as a case study area. Study results showed that MAS simulation technique emphasizing quantitative process effectively compensated for the SA method emphasizing qualitative process, which realized the organic combination of qualitative and quantitative land-use planning work, and then provided a new idea and method for the land-use planning and sustainable managements of land resources.

  19. Building Enclosure Hygrothermal Performance Study, Phase 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karagiozis, A.N.

    2002-08-08

    The moisture performance of three different classes of wall systems has been investigated in the context of the preliminary hygrothermal analysis of walls in Seattle. The results reported in this phase specifically address the moisture performance of walls designed with loads that have some unintentional water penetration. The results have been developed in a manner to present the relative performance of the walls in the same climate with similar water penetration effects. The analysis was performed with the best available input data. Several limitations should be recognized within the context of this study. Results showed that selection of wooden sheathing boards on interior vapor-tight assemblies does not significantly influence the performance of stucco-clad walls. A larger effect was observed when the interior vapor control is made vapor open. When continuous cavity ventilation is employed, the effect of the selection of the type of sheathing board on the hygrothermal performance of the wall was found to be negligible. When comparing oriented strand board sheathing performance against the performance of exterior grade gypsum, the differences are very significant in terms of the amount of moisture content present in the walls. Moisture content alone does not indicate their respective durability as durability is directly related to the combination of relative humidity and temperature, mechanical, chemical, and biological properties of the substrates. This study did not investigate the durability performance of either sheathing. In terms of interior vapor control, inhabitant behavior must be considered during the wall hygrothermal design stage. If interior relative humidity is maintained below 60%, then a latex primer and paint may perform better than the use of PVA or even a polyethylene sheet. When the interior environment is maintained at a higher relative humidity, then stricter vapor control is needed. Multilayered building paper was experimentally shown to

  20. A new methodology for building local climate change scenarios : A case study of monthly temperature projections for Mexico City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, Francisco; Guerrero, VíCtor M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology for generating climate change scenarios at the local scale based on multivariate time series models and restricted forecasting techniques. This methodology offers considerable advantages over the current statistical downscaling techniques such as: (i) it

  1. Study on assessment scenarios of natural phenomena effected on groundwater flow system. Case study for the sea-level change (Contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakai, Ryutaro; Munakata, Masahiro; Kimura, Hideo

    2009-03-01

    It is important to evaluate effects on the groundwater flow system by the natural phenomena in the safety assessment of geological disposal of radioactive waste. Safety assessment is performed by using safety assessment methods, thus it is necessary to establish reasonable scenarios for safety assessment. In this report, we study change effecting on the groundwater flow system by literature reviews. The scenario of sea level change is expected to have a importance for a safety of disposal facility in coastal area. The recent information related to the groundwater flow condition in sedimentary rocks of sub-seabed coastal area shows that there are four groundwater domains as follows with depth; (1) modern meteoric water, (2) saline water in the transgression period, (3) paleo-fresh water which formed during the last glacial age when sea levels were lower than at present and (4) pre-glacial fossil saline water. This study suggests that the non-current (3) paleo-fresh water at present is possible to move to discharged area at sea floor in the next glacial period by denudation of marine-clay sediments and to become stagnant water again in the next interglacial period by deposition of marine-clay sediments in coastal region. Therefore it is important to predict the scenario considering the denudation and deposition correlated with transgression and regression that could affect the change of groundwater flow velocity, groundwater flow path and groundwater chemical characteristics during the glacial and interglacial period. (author)

  2. [A Study on the Cognitive Learning Effectiveness of Scenario-Based Concept Mapping in a Neurological Nursing Course].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Hui-Ching; Hsieh, Suh-Ing; Hsu, Li-Ling

    2015-12-01

    The multiple levels of knowledge related to the neurological system deter many students from pursuing studies on this topic. Thus, in facing complicated and uncertain medical circumstances, nursing students have diffi-culty adjusting and using basic neurological-nursing knowledge and skills. Scenario-based concept-mapping teaching has been shown to promote the integration of complicated data, clarify related concepts, and increase the effectiveness of cognitive learning. To investigate the effect on the neurological-nursing cognition and learning attitude of nursing students of a scenario-based concept-mapping strategy that was integrated into the neurological nursing unit of a medical and surgical nursing course. This quasi-experimental study used experimental and control groups and a pre-test / post-test design. Sopho-more (2nd year) students in a four-year program at a university of science and technology in Taiwan were convenience sampled using cluster randomization that was run under SPSS 17.0. Concept-mapping lessons were used as the intervention for the experimental group. The control group followed traditional lesson plans only. The cognitive learning outcome was measured using the neurological nursing-learning examination. Both concept-mapping and traditional lessons significantly improved post-test neurological nursing learning scores (p learning attitude with regard to the teaching material. Furthermore, a significant number in the experimental group expressed the desire to add more lessons on anatomy, physiology, and pathology. These results indicate that this intervention strategy may help change the widespread fear and refusal of nursing students with regard to neurological lessons and may facilitate interest and positively affect learning in this important subject area. Integrating the concept-mapping strategy and traditional clinical-case lessons into neurological nursing lessons holds the potential to increase post-test scores significantly

  3. Glomed-Land: a research project to study the effect of global change in contrasted mediterranean landscapes and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Sinoga, José D.; Hueso-González, Paloma; León-Gross, Teodoro; Molina, Julián; Remond, Ricardo; Martínez-Murillo, Juan F.

    2017-04-01

    The Global Change is referred to the occurrence of great environmental changes associated to climatic fluctuations and human activity as wel (Vitousek et al., 1997; Steffen et al., 2004; Dearing et al., 2006). García-Ruiz et al. (2015) indicated that the relief varies very slowly in time while the changes in vegetation, overland flow generation and erosion occurred very rapidly and conditioned by their interactions and the climate variability as well. The GLOMED-LAND Project has its bases and scientific justification on the combination of the experience of the members of the research team, from one side, in the analysis of the dynamics and eco-geomorphological and climatic processes in Mediterranean environments of southern Spain, in the context of current Global change, and from another, in the study, development and application of new tools for simulation and modelling of future scenarios, and finally, in the analysis of the impact that society exercises the broadcast media related to the problem derived from the awareness and adaptation to Global change. Climate change (CC), directly affects the elements that compose the landscape. Both in the analysis of future climate scenarios raised by the IPCC (2013), such as the regionalisation carried out by AEMET, the Mediterranean region and, especially, the South of Spain, - with its defined longitudinal pluviometric gradient - configured as one of the areas of greatest uncertainty, reflected in a higher concentration of temporal rainfall, and even a reduction in the rainfall. Faced with this situation, the CC can modify the current landscape setting, with all the environmental impacts that this would entail for the terrestrial ecosystems and the systemic services rendered to the society. The combination of different work scales allows the analysis of the dynamics of the landscape and the consequence of its modifications on, hydro-geomorphological processes, closely related to degradation processes that can affect the

  4. Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

    2016-01-01

    The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

  5. Assessing hydrological drought risk for the irrigation sector in future climate scenarios: lessons learned from the Apulia case study (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critto, Andrea; Torresan, Silvia; Ronco, Paolo; Zennaro, Federica; Santini, Monia; Trabucco, Antonio; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is already affecting the frequency of drought events which may threaten the current stocks of water resources and thus the availability of freshwater for the irrigation. The achievement of a sustainable equilibrium between the availability of water resources and the irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. In this sense, the improvement (of existing) and the development of (new) appropriate risk assessment methods and tools to evaluate the impact of drought events on irrigated crops is fundamental in order to assure that the agricultural yields are appropriate to meet the current and future food and market demand. This study evaluates the risk of hydrological drought on the irrigated agronomic compartment of Apulia, a semi-arid region in Southern Italy. We applied a stepwise Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) procedure, based on the consecutive analysis of hazards, exposure, vulnerability and risks, integrating the qualitative and quantitative available information. Future climate projections for the timeframes 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 were provided by COSMO-CLM under the radiative forcing RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The run-off feeding the water stocks of the most important irrigation reservoirs in Apulia was then modeled with Arc-SWAT. Hence, the hazard analysis was carried out in order to estimate the degree of fulfillment of actual irrigation demand satisfied by water supply of different reservoirs in future scenarios. Vulnerability of exposed irrigated crops was evaluated depending on three factors accounting for crop yield variation vs water stress, water losses along the irrigation network, diversification of water supply. Resulting risk and vulnerability maps allowed: the identification of Reclamation Consortia at higher risk of not fulfilling their future irrigation demand (e.g. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia in RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario); the ranking of most

  6. Flow split characterization of two immiscible phases with different wettability scenarios: a numerical investigation using a coupled Cahn-Hilliard and Navier-Stokes system

    KAUST Repository

    Bao, Kai; Salama, Amgad; Sun, Shuyu

    2017-01-01

    Numerical investigation of flow branching of two-phase immiscible fluids in a Y-shaped, planner channel is conducted by solving the coupled Cahn-Hilliard and Naiver-Stokes system with finite element method. In this system a horizontal channel

  7. Performance evaluation in competence-based learning model in higher education scenarios using social network: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherina Edith GALLARDO CÓRDOVA

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A research about performance evaluation was conducted in a graduate online course designed in the Based-Competency Model. Facebook was used as a social and interactive tool that would permit sharing information to illustrate various aspects of diverse educational contexts as well as the impacts of the implementation of improvement projects seen from the beneficiaries’ perspective. Case Study was the methodology selected. Postgraduate students got the task to work on certain improvements on learning assessment matters. The educational scenarios were located in Mexico and Colombia. 7 units of analysis were chosen among 34 possible. The findings pointed out that students worked on their contexts in alignment with the stipulated academic competencies. The use of video materials posted and shared using Facebook allowed get a deeper understanding of the way the benefits influenced in each of the educational communities. Besides, these products evidenced students’ appropriate performance. In conclusion, the use of social networks for fortifying performance assessment is highly recommended. Moreover, it is expected that these benefits also influence some of the curricular and instructional design aspects.

  8. Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2) are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.

  9. Radioimmuoassay study of antidigitoxin antibodies in liquid phase and after coupling on a solid phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collignon, A.; German, A.; Scherrmann, J.M.; Bourdon, R.

    1983-01-01

    Antidigitoxin antibodies prepared by immunizing rabbits with a digitoxin-bovine serum albumin conjugate have been studied by radioimmunoassay in the native serum (homogeneous phase antibodies) and after coupling on glass beads (heterogeneous phase antibodies). Homogeneous phase antibodies present a satisfactory titer and affinity constant and react very specifically with digitoxin. Fixation of antibodies on a solid phase induce a loss of their immunoreactivity as it is showed by modification of the inhibition curves, by a greater sensitivity to the chemical structure of the tracer and by a decrease of the affinity constant. Reactionnal kinetic and sensitivity to the incubation temperature are not modified. Heterogeneous phase antibodies present a greater stability. Both antibodies types can be used for a digitoxin radioimmunoassay [fr

  10. Identifying Effective Design Approaches to Allocate Genotypes in Two-Phase Designs: A Case Study in Pelargonium zonale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heike Molenaar

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Robust phenotypic data allow adequate statistical analysis and are crucial for any breeding purpose. Such data is obtained from experiments laid out to best control local variation. Additionally, experiments frequently involve two phases, each contributing environmental sources of variation. For example, in a former experiment we conducted to evaluate production related traits in Pelargonium zonale, there were two consecutive phases, each performed in a different greenhouse. Phase one involved the propagation of the breeding strains to obtain the stem cutting count, and phase two involved the assessment of root formation. The evaluation of the former study raised questions regarding options for improving the experimental layout: (i Is there a disadvantage to using exactly the same design in both phases? (ii Instead of generating a separate layout for each phase, can the design be optimized across both phases, such that the mean variance of a pair-wise treatment difference (MVD can be decreased? To answer these questions, alternative approaches were explored to generate two-phase designs either in phase-wise order (Option 1 or across phases (Option 2. In Option 1 we considered the scenarios (i using in both phases the same experimental design and (ii randomizing each phase separately. In Option 2, we considered the scenarios (iii generating a single design with eight replicates and splitting these among the two phases, (iv separating the block structure across phases by dummy coding, and (v design generation with optimal alignment of block units in the two phases. In both options, we considered the same or different block structures in each phase. The designs were evaluated by the MVD obtained by the intra-block analysis and the joint inter-block–intra-block analysis. The smallest MVD was most frequently obtained for designs generated across phases rather than for each phase separately, in particular when both phases of the design were

  11. Identifying Effective Design Approaches to Allocate Genotypes in Two-Phase Designs: A Case Study in Pelargonium zonale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Heike; Boehm, Robert; Piepho, Hans-Peter

    2017-01-01

    Robust phenotypic data allow adequate statistical analysis and are crucial for any breeding purpose. Such data is obtained from experiments laid out to best control local variation. Additionally, experiments frequently involve two phases, each contributing environmental sources of variation. For example, in a former experiment we conducted to evaluate production related traits in Pelargonium zonale , there were two consecutive phases, each performed in a different greenhouse. Phase one involved the propagation of the breeding strains to obtain the stem cutting count, and phase two involved the assessment of root formation. The evaluation of the former study raised questions regarding options for improving the experimental layout: (i) Is there a disadvantage to using exactly the same design in both phases? (ii) Instead of generating a separate layout for each phase, can the design be optimized across both phases, such that the mean variance of a pair-wise treatment difference (MVD) can be decreased? To answer these questions, alternative approaches were explored to generate two-phase designs either in phase-wise order (Option 1) or across phases (Option 2). In Option 1 we considered the scenarios (i) using in both phases the same experimental design and (ii) randomizing each phase separately. In Option 2, we considered the scenarios (iii) generating a single design with eight replicates and splitting these among the two phases, (iv) separating the block structure across phases by dummy coding, and (v) design generation with optimal alignment of block units in the two phases. In both options, we considered the same or different block structures in each phase. The designs were evaluated by the MVD obtained by the intra-block analysis and the joint inter-block-intra-block analysis. The smallest MVD was most frequently obtained for designs generated across phases rather than for each phase separately, in particular when both phases of the design were separated with a

  12. [Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of ecosystem services as affected by urban expansion: A case study in coastal area of Tianjin, North China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Huan-Chun; Yun, Ying-Xia; Miao, Zhan-Tang; Hao, Cui; Li, Hong-yuan

    2013-03-01

    Based on the modified Logistic-CA model, and taking the coastal area of Tianjin as a case, this paper simulated the spatial evolution patterns of ecosystem services as affected by the urban expansion in 2011-2020 under the scenarios of historical extrapolation, endogenous development, and exogenous development. Overall, the total ecosystem services of the study area under the three scenarios were generally the same, and the functional region with the lowest level ecosystem services had the identical spatial pattern. However, the spatial evolution patterns of the ecosystem services of the study area under the three scenarios had a great difference. The functional regions with lower-level ecosystem services grew in a cross-shaped pattern, with the Tanggu downtown as a center, and finally formed a full connectivity area along the Haihe River and coastal zone.

  13. The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios-Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mander, Sarah L.; Bows, Alice; Anderson, Kevin L.; Shackley, Simon; Agnolucci, Paolo; Ekins, Paul

    2008-01-01

    The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project has outlined alternative pathways whereby a 60% reduction in CO 2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2050, a goal adopted by the UK Government, can be achieved. This paper, Part I of a two part paper, describes the methodology used to develop the scenarios and outlines the motivations for the project. The study utilised a backcasting approach, applied in three phases. In phase one, a set of credible and consistent end-points that described a substantially decarbonised energy system in 2050 were generated and reviewed by stakeholders. In phase two, pathways were developed to achieve the transition to the desired end-point. The impacts of the scenarios were assessed in phase three, by means of a deliberative multi-criteria assessment framework. The scenarios to emerge from this process are elaborated in Part II, and conclusions drawn in relation to the feasibility of achieving the 60% target

  14. A Study of the Competency of Third Year Medical Students to Interpret Biochemically Based Clinical Scenarios Using Knowledge and Skills Gained in Year 1 and 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gowda, Veena Bhaskar S.; Nagaiah, Bhaskar Hebbani; Sengodan, Bharathi

    2016-01-01

    Medical students build clinical knowledge on the grounds of previously obtained basic knowledge. The study aimed to evaluate the competency of third year medical students to interpret biochemically based clinical scenarios using knowledge and skills gained during year 1 and 2 of undergraduate medical training. Study was conducted on year 3 MBBS…

  15. Bolt study - behaviour of bolts in drop accident scenarios of the Nirex 3m3 Box ILW package

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, G.; Tso, C.F.

    2004-01-01

    The mission of Nirex is to provide the UK with safe, environmentally sound and publicly acceptable options for the long-term management of radioactive materials. One of the key tasks is to ensure that waste is packaged by waste producers in a form which is suitable for safe storage, transport, handling and potential disposal. In pursuit of this key requirement, Nirex has developed specifications to set the standard for the design and performance of waste packages, and has developed standard containers for the packaging of intermediate level (ILW) and some low level waste (LLW) - one of these is the 3m 3 Box for immobilised operational and decommissioning ILW. The dimension envelope of this package is 1716 mm x 1716 mm in plan with 430 mm corner radii, 1226 mm tall. The maximum loaded weight is 12 tonnes. A generic design of this container has been developed, which is a welded structure manufactured from austenitic stainless steel (EN 10088-2 steel number 1.4404). The lid is connected to the body by 28 stainless steel bolts. An extensive study was carried out to develop a robust FE model of the bolts. The specific focus of this work was to use improved bolt modelling to optimize the design of the 3m 3 Box, although this work could be applied to other bolted containers. This paper presents a summary of the findings from the study as follows: 1. Development of a FE bolt model for application in a 3m 3 Box model. 2. Development and execution of a bolt testing programme which included tensile and shear tests on a total of 88 bolts, representing four grades of stainless steel materials, three thread sizes, and two geometries at three strain rates. 3. Benchmarking of the FE bolt model that can be used with confidence in simulating waste package behaviour in drop scenarios

  16. Assessing models of speciation under different biogeographic scenarios; An empirical study using multi-locus and RNA-seq analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Taylor; Tollis, Marc; Hsieh, PingHsun; Gutenkunst, Ryan N.; Liu, Zhen; Kusumi, Kenro; Culver, Melanie; Murphy, Robert W.

    2016-01-01

    Evolutionary biology often seeks to decipher the drivers of speciation, and much debate persists over the relative importance of isolation and gene flow in the formation of new species. Genetic studies of closely related species can assess if gene flow was present during speciation, because signatures of past introgression often persist in the genome. We test hypotheses on which mechanisms of speciation drove diversity among three distinct lineages of desert tortoise in the genus Gopherus. These lineages offer a powerful system to study speciation, because different biogeographic patterns (physical vs. ecological segregation) are observed at opposing ends of their distributions. We use 82 samples collected from 38 sites, representing the entire species' distribution and generate sequence data for mtDNA and four nuclear loci. A multilocus phylogenetic analysis in *BEAST estimates the species tree. RNA-seq data yield 20,126 synonymous variants from 7665 contigs from two individuals of each of the three lineages. Analyses of these data using the demographic inference package ∂a∂i serve to test the null hypothesis of no gene flow during divergence. The best-fit demographic model for the three taxa is concordant with the *BEAST species tree, and the ∂a∂i analysis does not indicate gene flow among any of the three lineages during their divergence. These analyses suggest that divergence among the lineages occurred in the absence of gene flow and in this scenario the genetic signature of ecological isolation (parapatric model) cannot be differentiated from geographic isolation (allopatric model).

  17. Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

    2000-01-01

    Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

  18. Experimental study of the {sup 22}Ne(p,{gamma}){sup 23}Na reaction and its implications for novae scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menzel, Marie-Luise

    2013-08-01

    The {sup 22}Ne(p,{gamma}){sup 23}Na reaction belongs to the catalytic neon-sodium cycle and has an important role in the explosive hydrogen burning. The neon-sodium cycle takes place at temperatures of T = 0.1 - 0.5 GK and is assumed to occur in different astrophysical systems: e.g. in novae, in super novae of type Ia and during the shell-burning of red giant branch stars. The implications of {sup 22}Ne(p,{gamma}){sup 23}Na and the neon-sodium cycle in a nova scenario have been studied by using the nuclear network code libnucnet at GSI in Darmstadt. A nova is an outburst of matter in a binary system consisting of a white dwarf and a red giant star. It is therefore a representative phenomenon for explosive hydrogen burning. For the calculation of the nucleosynthesis during the nova outburst, the code libnucnet requires the initial mass composition of the novae partners, the temperature and density profiles of the nova explosion and the thermonuclear reaction rates of the participating reactions. In the following, the code determined the flow and the final atomic abundance in the neon-sodium cycle during the entire nova process. Additionally, the influence of the temperature profile of the novae outburst as well as the thermonuclear reaction rate of the {sup 22}Ne(p,{gamma}){sup 23}Na reaction on the final atomic abundance in the outburst has been studied. A characteristic measure for the reactions in astrophysical environments is the thermonuclear reaction rate. The reaction rate of {sup 22}Ne(p,{gamma}){sup 23}Na has still strong uncertainties in the temperature range of T = 0.03 - 0.3 GK. These uncertainties are based on insufficient upper limits of the resonance strengths as well as the possible existence of tentative states that are populated in the energy range of E{sup lab}{sub p} = 30 - 300 keV. The research presented in this thesis is dedicated to the experimental study of the {sup 22}Ne(p,{gamma}){sup 23}Na reaction for an improved determination of the

  19. Experimental study of the 22Ne(p,γ)23Na reaction and its implications for novae scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menzel, Marie-Luise

    2013-01-01

    The 22 Ne(p,γ) 23 Na reaction belongs to the catalytic neon-sodium cycle and has an important role in the explosive hydrogen burning. The neon-sodium cycle takes place at temperatures of T = 0.1 - 0.5 GK and is assumed to occur in different astrophysical systems: e.g. in novae, in super novae of type Ia and during the shell-burning of red giant branch stars. The implications of 22 Ne(p,γ) 23 Na and the neon-sodium cycle in a nova scenario have been studied by using the nuclear network code libnucnet at GSI in Darmstadt. A nova is an outburst of matter in a binary system consisting of a white dwarf and a red giant star. It is therefore a representative phenomenon for explosive hydrogen burning. For the calculation of the nucleosynthesis during the nova outburst, the code libnucnet requires the initial mass composition of the novae partners, the temperature and density profiles of the nova explosion and the thermonuclear reaction rates of the participating reactions. In the following, the code determined the flow and the final atomic abundance in the neon-sodium cycle during the entire nova process. Additionally, the influence of the temperature profile of the novae outburst as well as the thermonuclear reaction rate of the 22 Ne(p,γ) 23 Na reaction on the final atomic abundance in the outburst has been studied. A characteristic measure for the reactions in astrophysical environments is the thermonuclear reaction rate. The reaction rate of 22 Ne(p,γ) 23 Na has still strong uncertainties in the temperature range of T = 0.03 - 0.3 GK. These uncertainties are based on insufficient upper limits of the resonance strengths as well as the possible existence of tentative states that are populated in the energy range of E lab p = 30 - 300 keV. The research presented in this thesis is dedicated to the experimental study of the 22 Ne(p,γ) 23 Na reaction for an improved determination of the thermonuclear reaction rate. Furthermore, the implications of 22 Ne(p,γ) 23 Na and

  20. Procedural method for the development of scenarios in the post-closure phase. Report on the working package 1. Development of the international status of science and technology concerning methods and tools for operational and long-term safety cases; Vorgehensweise bei der Entwicklung von Szenarien fuer die Nachverschlussphase. Bericht zum Arbeitspaket 1. Weiterentwicklung des internationalen Stands von Wissenschaft und Technik zu Methoden und Werkzeugen fuer Betriebs- und Langzeitsicherheitsnachweise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beuth, Thomas; Mayer, Kim-Marisa

    2016-09-15

    The report on the procedural method for the development of scenarios in the post-closure phase covers the following topics: development of scenarios and derivation of calculation cases, approaches for verification of derived scenarios, human penetration in a final repository (including national and international regulations and guidelines and safety standards).

  1. Implications of climate change scenarios for agriculture in alpine regions--a case study in the Swiss Rhone catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuhrer, J; Smith, P; Gobiet, A

    2014-09-15

    Coping with climate change in agriculture requires knowledge of trends in agro-climatic conditions with a focus at the smaller scales where decisions are taken. As part of the EU FP7 ACQWA project, the situation was analyzed for agriculture in the case of the Swiss Rhone catchment (Valais) where cultivation of permanent crops (orchards and vineyards) and livestock production are the most important agro-economic activities. The aim of this study was to use daily data from four downscaled and bias corrected transient climate change scenarios to analyze changes in water and temperature related indices over the period 1951-2050 for three locations (Aigle, Sion, Montana) that are representative of different production zones in the catchment. The results indicate that most relevant implications are caused by projected changes in temperature and not in precipitation. They indicate an extension of the thermal growing season with potentially positive effects on pasture and livestock production, most pronounced at the mountain site (Montana), but a trend towards increasing risks of frost in permanent crops and in heat stress for livestock at the valley bottom (Aigle, Sion). The increase in water requirement for irrigation in 2021-2050 relative to 1981-2009 is moderate (4-16%, depending on location). However, in years with low amounts of snow and rain, in small catchments with a nival regime, reduced water supply by rivers could restrict the surface area of grassland that can be irrigated, particularly during springtime. It is concluded that coping with heat-related risks may be most needed at the lower cropland and pasture sites while water-related issues would become more relevant in more elevated locations where pasture-based livestock production is the dominant type of agricultural land use. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Risk, Benefit, and Cost Thresholds for Emergency Department Testing: A Cross-sectional, Scenario-based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meka, Arjun Prasad; Porath, Jonathan Douglas; Iyengar, Rahul; Morrow, Chelsea; Fagerlin, Angela; Meurer, William J

    2017-06-01

    While diagnostic testing is common in the emergency department, the value of some testing is questionable. The purpose of this study was to assess how varying levels of benefit, risk, and costs influenced an individual's desire to have diagnostic testing. A survey through Amazon Mechanical Turk presented hypothetical clinical situations: low-risk chest pain and minor traumatic brain injury. Each scenario included three given variables (benefit, risk, and cost), that was independently randomly varied over four possible values (0.1, 1, 5, and 10% for benefit and risk and $0, $100, $500, and $1,000 for the individual's personal cost for receiving the test). Benefit was defined as the probability of finding the target disease (traumatic intracranial hemorrhage or acute coronary syndrome). One-thousand unique respondents completed the survey. With an increased benefit from 0.1% to 10%, the percentage of respondents who accepted a diagnostic test went from 28.4% to 53.1%. (odds ratio [OR] = 3.42; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.57-4.54). As risk increased from 0.1% to 10%, this number decreased from 52.5% to 28.5%. (OR = 0.33; 95% CI = 0.25-0.44). Increasing cost from $0 to $1,000 had the greatest change of those accepting the test from 61.1% to 21.4%, respectively (OR = 0.15; 95% CI = 0.11-0.2). The desire for testing was strongly sensitive to the benefits, risks, and costs. Many participants wanted a test when there was no added cost, regardless of benefit or risk levels, but far fewer elected to receive the test as cost increased incrementally. This suggests that out-of-pocket costs may deter patients from undergoing diagnostic testing with low potential benefit. © 2016 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

  3. Interprofessional team debriefings with or without an instructor after a simulated crisis scenario: An exploratory case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boet, Sylvain; Pigford, Ashlee-Ann; Fitzsimmons, Amber; Reeves, Scott; Triby, Emmanuel; Bould, M Dylan

    2016-11-01

    The value of debriefing after an interprofessional simulated crisis is widely recognised; however, little is known about the content of debriefings and topics that prompt reflection. This study aimed to describe the content and topics that facilitate reflection among learners in two types of interprofessional team debriefings (with or without an instructor) following simulated practice. Interprofessional operating room (OR) teams (one anaesthesia trainee, one surgical trainee, and one staff circulating OR nurse) managed a simulated crisis scenario and were randomised to one of two debriefing groups. Within-team groups used low-level facilitation (i.e., no instructor but a one-page debriefing form based on the Ottawa Global Rating Scale). The instructor-led group used high-level facilitation (i.e., gold standard instructor-led debriefing). All debriefings were recorded, transcribed, and thematically analysed using the inductive qualitative methodology. Thirty-seven interprofessional team-debriefing sessions were included in the analysis. Regardless of group allocation (within-team or instructor-led), the debriefings centred on targeted crisis resource management (CRM) content (i.e., communication, leadership, situation awareness, roles, and responsibilities). In both types of debriefings, three themes emerged as topics for entry points into reflection: (1) the process of the debriefing itself, (2) experience of the simulation model, including simulation fidelity, and (3) perceived performance, including the assessment of CRM. Either with or without an instructor, interprofessional teams focused their debriefing discussion on targeted CRM content. We report topics that allowed learners to enter reflection. This is important for understanding how to maximise learning opportunities when creating education activities for healthcare providers that work in interprofessional settings.

  4. Capturing readiness to learn and collaboration as explored with an interprofessional simulation scenario: A mixed-methods research study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossler, Kelly L; Kimble, Laura P

    2016-01-01

    Didactic lecture does not lend itself to teaching interprofessional collaboration. High-fidelity human patient simulation with a focus on clinical situations/scenarios is highly conducive to interprofessional education. Consequently, a need for research supporting the incorporation of interprofessional education with high-fidelity patient simulation based technology exists. The purpose of this study was to explore readiness for interprofessional learning and collaboration among pre-licensure health professions students participating in an interprofessional education human patient simulation experience. Using a mixed methods convergent parallel design, a sample of 53 pre-licensure health professions students enrolled in nursing, respiratory therapy, health administration, and physical therapy programs within a college of health professions participated in high-fidelity human patient simulation experiences. Perceptions of interprofessional learning and collaboration were measured with the revised Readiness for Interprofessional Learning Scale (RIPLS) and the Health Professional Collaboration Scale (HPCS). Focus groups were conducted during the simulation post-briefing to obtain qualitative data. Statistical analysis included non-parametric, inferential statistics. Qualitative data were analyzed using a phenomenological approach. Pre- and post-RIPLS demonstrated pre-licensure health professions students reported significantly more positive attitudes about readiness for interprofessional learning post-simulation in the areas of team work and collaboration, negative professional identity, and positive professional identity. Post-simulation HPCS revealed pre-licensure nursing and health administration groups reported greater health collaboration during simulation than physical therapy students. Qualitative analysis yielded three themes: "exposure to experiential learning," "acquisition of interactional relationships," and "presence of chronology in role preparation

  5. Comparing three CPR feedback devices and standard BLS in a single rescuer scenario: a randomised simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapletal, Bernhard; Greif, Robert; Stumpf, Dominik; Nierscher, Franz Josef; Frantal, Sophie; Haugk, Moritz; Ruetzler, Kurt; Schlimp, Christoph; Fischer, Henrik

    2014-04-01

    Efficiently performed basic life support (BLS) after cardiac arrest is proven to be effective. However, cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is strenuous and rescuers' performance declines rapidly over time. Audio-visual feedback devices reporting CPR quality may prevent this decline. We aimed to investigate the effect of various CPR feedback devices on CPR quality. In this open, prospective, randomised, controlled trial we compared three CPR feedback devices (PocketCPR, CPRmeter, iPhone app PocketCPR) with standard BLS without feedback in a simulated scenario. 240 trained medical students performed single rescuer BLS on a manikin for 8min. Effective compression (compressions with correct depth, pressure point and sufficient decompression) as well as compression rate, flow time fraction and ventilation parameters were compared between the four groups. Study participants using the PocketCPR performed 17±19% effective compressions compared to 32±28% with CPRmeter, 25±27% with the iPhone app PocketCPR, and 35±30% applying standard BLS (PocketCPR vs. CPRmeter p=0.007, PocketCPR vs. standard BLS p=0.001, others: ns). PocketCPR and CPRmeter prevented a decline in effective compression over time, but overall performance in the PocketCPR group was considerably inferior to standard BLS. Compression depth and rate were within the range recommended in the guidelines in all groups. While we found differences between the investigated CPR feedback devices, overall BLS quality was suboptimal in all groups. Surprisingly, effective compression was not improved by any CPR feedback device compared to standard BLS. All feedback devices caused substantial delay in starting CPR, which may worsen outcome. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  7. Effect of isochronal annealing on phase transformation studies of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The mixed phase sample shows higher value of magnetization because of the presence of ferromagnetic γ-Fe2O3 ... 1. Introduction. The study of particle size, phase transformation and micros- ..... The results are in qualitative agreement with ...

  8. Study of Strange Quark Mass in CFL Phase

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xin; L(U) Xiao-Fu

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we introduce bilocal fields in the global color symmetry model and consider color and electrical neutrality conditions simultaneously to study the effect of strange quark mass Ms for the momentum-dependent condensate of color-flavor locked phase. Consequently we find that there will be a quantum phase transition occurring.

  9. Small modular biopower initiative Phase 1 feasibility studies executive summaries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bain, R.

    2000-03-06

    The Phase 1 objective is a feasibility study that includes a market assessment, resource assessment, preliminary system design, and assessment of relevant environmental and safety considerations, and evaluation of financial and cost issues, and a preliminary business plan and commercialization strategy. Each participating company will share at least 20% of the cost of the first phase.

  10. Prediction of cervical cancer incidence in England, UK, up to 2040, under four scenarios: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castanon, Alejandra; Landy, Rebecca; Pesola, Francesca; Windridge, Peter; Sasieni, Peter

    2018-01-01

    In the next 25 years, the epidemiology of cervical cancer in England, UK, will change: human papillomavirus (HPV) screening will be the primary test for cervical cancer. Additionally, the proportion of women screened regularly is decreasing and women who received the HPV vaccine are due to attend screening for the first time. Therefore, we aimed to estimate how vaccination against HPV, changes to the screening test, and falling screening coverage will affect cervical cancer incidence in England up to 2040. We did a data modelling study that combined results from population modelling of incidence trends, observable data from the individual level with use of a generalised linear model, and microsimulation of unobservable disease states. We estimated age-specific absolute risks of cervical cancer in the absence of screening (derived from individual level data). We used an age period cohort model to estimate birth cohort effects. We multiplied the absolute risks by the age cohort effects to provide absolute risks of cervical cancer for unscreened women in different birth cohorts. We obtained relative risks (RRs) of cervical cancer by screening history (never screened, regularly screened, or lapsed attender) using data from a population-based case-control study for unvaccinated women, and using a microsimulation model for vaccinated women. RRs of primary HPV screening were relative to cytology. We used the proportion of women in each 5-year age group (25-29 years to 75-79 years) and 5-year period (2016-20 to 2036-40) who have a combination of screening and vaccination history, and weighted to estimate the population incidence. The primary outcome was the number of cases and rates per 100 000 women under four scenarios: no changes to current screening coverage or vaccine uptake and HPV primary testing from 2019 (status quo), changing the year in which HPV primary testing is introduced, introduction of the nine-valent vaccine, and changes to cervical screening coverage

  11. Histological studies on the telencephalon of Hynobius leechii at the metamorphosis phase and the adult phase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Ying-Ying; Shao, Ran; Liang, Chuan-Cheng; Wang, Yong; Wang, Li-Wen

    2009-08-01

    To investigate the telencephalon developmental characteristics of Hynobius leehii, and enrich the research data of comparable neurobiology and nervous system development of amphibian. HE staining and Nissl staining methods were used to study the telencephalon histological structure of Hynobius leechii at both the metamorphosis and the adult phases, and to explore the developmental phases of telencephalon. The olfactory bulb could be roughly divided into 6 layers from lateral to medial. The lateral cerebral ventricles at the metamorphosis phase were smaller than those at the adult phase, and there were no clear borderlines between the primordial pallium and the primordial hippocampus, or between the primordial pallium and the primordial piriform area. Moreover, the cells in the primordial piriform area were more closely distributed than those in the primordial hippocampus or the primordial pallium. Compared with those at the adult phase, cells in nucleuses at the metamorphosis phase were larger in number and more closely distributed. The telencephalon of Hynobius leehii at the metamorphosis phase has generally formed the adult structure. However, it is still at a transition state of differentiation to maturity during the development of Hynobius leehii.

  12. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  13. Oak Ridge Health Studies phase 1 report, Volume 1: Oak Ridge Phase 1 overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yarbrough, M.I.; Van Cleave, M.L.; Turri, P.; Daniel, J.

    1993-09-01

    In July 1991, the State of Tennessee initiated the Health Studies Agreement with the United States Department of Energy to carry out independent studies of possible adverse health effects in people living in the vicinity of the Oak Ridge Reservation. The health studies focus on those effects that could have resulted or could result from exposures to chemicals and radioactivity released at the Reservation since 1942. The major focus of the first phase was to complete a Dose Reconstruction Feasibility Study. This study was designed to find out if enough data exist about chemical and radionuclide releases from the Oak Ridge Reservation to conduct a second phase. The second phase will lead to estimates of the actual amounts or the ``doses`` of various contaminants received by people as a result of off-site releases. Once the doses of various contaminants have been estimated, scientists and physicians will be better able to evaluate whether adverse health effects could have resulted from the releases.

  14. Oak Ridge Health Studies phase 1 report, Volume 1: Oak Ridge Phase 1 overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yarbrough, M.I.; Van Cleave, M.L.; Turri, P.; Daniel, J.

    1993-09-01

    In July 1991, the State of Tennessee initiated the Health Studies Agreement with the United States Department of Energy to carry out independent studies of possible adverse health effects in people living in the vicinity of the Oak Ridge Reservation. The health studies focus on those effects that could have resulted or could result from exposures to chemicals and radioactivity released at the Reservation since 1942. The major focus of the first phase was to complete a Dose Reconstruction Feasibility Study. This study was designed to find out if enough data exist about chemical and radionuclide releases from the Oak Ridge Reservation to conduct a second phase. The second phase will lead to estimates of the actual amounts or the ''doses'' of various contaminants received by people as a result of off-site releases. Once the doses of various contaminants have been estimated, scientists and physicians will be better able to evaluate whether adverse health effects could have resulted from the releases

  15. Study of heat and synchrotron radiation transport in fusion tokamak plasmas. Application to the modelling of steady state and fast burn termination scenarios for the international experimental fusion reactor ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villar Colome, J.

    1997-12-01

    The aim of this thesis is to give a global scope of the problem of energy transport within a thermonuclear plasma in the context of its power balance and the implications when modelling ITER operating scenarios. This is made in two phases. First, by furnishing new elements to the existing models of heat and synchrotron radiation transport in a thermonuclear plasma. Second, by applying the improved models to plasma engineering studies of ITER operating scenarios. The scenarios modelled are the steady state operating point and the transient that appears to have the biggest technological implications: the fast burn termination. The conduction-convection losses are modelled through the energy confinement time. This parameter is empirically obtained from the existing experimental data, since the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. In chapter 2 an expression for the energy confinement time is semi-analytically deduced from the Rebut-Lallia-Watkins local transport model. The current estimates of the synchrotron radiation losses are made with expressions of the dimensionless transparency factor deduced from a 0-dimensional cylindrical model proposed by Trubnikov in 1979. In chapter 3 realistic hypothesis for the cases of cylindrical and toroidal geometry are included in the model to deduce compact explicit expressions for the fast numerical computation of the synchrotron radiation losses. Numerical applications are provided for the cylindrical case. The results are checked against the existing models. In chapter 4, the nominal operating point of ITER and its thermal stability is studied by means of a 0-dimensional burn model of the thermonuclear plasma in ignition. This model is deduced by the elements furnished by the plasma particle and power balance. Possible heat overloading on the plasma facing components may provoke severe structural damage, implying potential safety problems related to tritium inventory and metal activation. In chapter 5, the assessment

  16. Study of heat and synchrotron radiation transport in fusion tokamak plasmas. Application to the modelling of steady state and fast burn termination scenarios for the international experimental fusion reactor ITER

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Villar Colome, J. [Association Euratom-CEA, Centre d`Etudes de Cadarache, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France). Dept. de Recherches sur la Fusion Controlee]|[Universitat Polytechnica de Catalunya (Spain)

    1997-12-01

    The aim of this thesis is to give a global scope of the problem of energy transport within a thermonuclear plasma in the context of its power balance and the implications when modelling ITER operating scenarios. This is made in two phases. First, by furnishing new elements to the existing models of heat and synchrotron radiation transport in a thermonuclear plasma. Second, by applying the improved models to plasma engineering studies of ITER operating scenarios. The scenarios modelled are the steady state operating point and the transient that appears to have the biggest technological implications: the fast burn termination. The conduction-convection losses are modelled through the energy confinement time. This parameter is empirically obtained from the existing experimental data, since the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. In chapter 2 an expression for the energy confinement time is semi-analytically deduced from the Rebut-Lallia-Watkins local transport model. The current estimates of the synchrotron radiation losses are made with expressions of the dimensionless transparency factor deduced from a 0-dimensional cylindrical model proposed by Trubnikov in 1979. In chapter 3 realistic hypothesis for the cases of cylindrical and toroidal geometry are included in the model to deduce compact explicit expressions for the fast numerical computation of the synchrotron radiation losses. Numerical applications are provided for the cylindrical case. The results are checked against the existing models. In chapter 4, the nominal operating point of ITER and its thermal stability is studied by means of a 0-dimensional burn model of the thermonuclear plasma in ignition. This model is deduced by the elements furnished by the plasma particle and power balance. Possible heat overloading on the plasma facing components may provoke severe structural damage, implying potential safety problems related to tritium inventory and metal activation. In chapter 5, the assessment

  17. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

  18. Crime Self-Reporting Study: Phase 1

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Buck, Kelly

    2004-01-01

    The PERSEREC Crime Self-Reporting Study covers criminal record checks conducted in CY00 on 14,470 subjects of DoD security clearance investigations, including uniformed military, civilian, and contractor personnel...

  19. Exploring Young Children's Performance on and Acceptance of an Educational Scenario-Based Digital Game for Teaching Route-Planning Strategies: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yi-Hui; Hou, Huei-Tse

    2016-01-01

    Researchers suggest that game-based learning (GBL) can be used to facilitate mathematics learning. However, empirical GBL research that targets young children is still limited. The purposes of the study is to develop a scenario-based digital game to promote children's route-planning ability, to empirically explore children's learning performance…

  20. A comparative study on the clinical decision-making processes of nurse practitioners vs. medical doctors using scenarios in a secondary care environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Stephen; Moorley, Calvin; Barratt, Julian

    2017-05-01

    To investigate the decision-making skills of secondary care nurse practitioners compared with those of medical doctors. A literature review was conducted, searching for articles published from 1990 - 2012. The review found that nurse practitioners are key to the modernization of the National Health Service. Studies have shown that compared with doctors, nurse practitioners can be efficient and cost-effective in consultations. Qualitative research design. The information processing theory and think aloud approach were used to understand the cognitive processes of 10 participants (5 doctors and 5 nurse practitioners). One nurse practitioner was paired with one doctor from the same speciality and they were compared using a structured scenario-based interview. To ensure that all critical and relevant cues were covered by the individual participating in the scenario, a reference model was used to measure the degree of successful diagnosis, management and treatment. This study was conducted from May 2012 - January 2013. The data were processed for 5 months, from July to November 2012. The two groups of practitioners differed in the number of cue acquisitions obtained in the scenarios. In our study, nurse practitioners took 3 minutes longer to complete the scenarios. This study suggests that nurse practitioner consultations are comparable to those of medical doctors in a secondary care environment in terms of correct diagnoses and therapeutic treatments. The information processing theory highlighted that both groups of professionals had similar models for decision-making processes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. German risk study on nuclear power stations. Phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-11-01

    The German Risk Study on Nuclear Power Stations is concerned with investigations of accidents in nuclear facilities and their associated risks. These investigations are undertaken on behalf of the federal Minister of Research and Technology. They have been broken down into two phases (Phase A and Phase B). The results of Phase A were published in 1979 (GRS 79). This report contains a summary of the investigations relating to Phase B. After an introduction setting out the basic principles and aim of the study, a general review will be given of the most important results. The course of the investigations and the results have already been published in a Technical Report (GRS 89). (author)

  2. Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

    2016-04-01

    an important element in management and decision-making as problems in today's world are complex and require knowledge from many different domains and disciplines. Participation is also said to be a process of collective learning that changes the way people think and act which is a relevant point in forming appropriate region-specific climate adaptation strategies. The scenarios are based on an analysis of data on recent states and trends in major local sector developments concerning absolute and relative employment and value creation as well as on distinct socio-demographic developments in the region. Categories discussed in the scenario workshop cover inter alia institutions and governance, demographics, production and demand, markets, value-chains and trade, scientific and technological innovations, education and health. The derived stakeholder-based socio-economic scenarios were, in a second step, matched with the Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) in order to frame the locally produced scenarios with global narratives. Both strains were, in a third step, combined and backed-up by scientific literature in order to build the local socio-economic scenarios that served as background information in the analysis of risks, vulnerability and appropriate adaptation measures in the case-study region.

  3. Evaluation of Managed Aquifer Recharge Scenarios using Treated Wastewater: a Case study of the Zarqa River Basin, Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Rawy, Mustafa; Zlotnik, Vitaly; Al-Maktoumi, Ali; Al-Raggad, Marwan; Kacimov, Anvar; Abdalla, Osman

    2016-04-01

    Jordan is an arid country, facing great challenges due to limited water resources. The shortage of water resources constrains economy, especially agriculture that consumes the largest amount of available water (about 53 % of the total demand). According to the Jordan Water Strategy 2008 - 2022, groundwater is twice greater than the recharge rate. Therefore, the government charged the planners to consider treated wastewater (TWW) as a choice in the water resources management and development strategies. In Jordan, there are 31 TWW plants. Among them, As Samra plant serving the two major cities, Amman and Zarqa, is the largest, with projected maximum capacity of 135 Million m3/year. This plant is located upstream of the Zarqa River basin that accepts all TWW discharges. The Zarqa River is considered the most important source of surface water in Jordan and more than 78 % of its current is composed of TWW. The main objectives were to develop a conceptual model for a selected part of the Zarqa River basin, including the As Samrapant, and to provide insights to water resources management in the area using TWW. The groundwater flow model was developed using MODFLOW 2005 and used to assess changes in the aquifer and the Zarqa River under a set of different increments in discharge rates from the As Samra plant and different groundwater pumping rates. The results show that the water table in the study area underwent an average water table decline of 29 m prior to the As Samra plant construction, comparing with the current situation (with annual TWW discharge of 110 Million m3). The analysis of the TWW rate increase to 135 million m3/year (maximum capacity of the As Samra plant) shows that the average groundwater level will rise 0.55 m, compared to the current conditions. We found that the best practices require conjunctive use management of surface- and groundwater. The simulated scenarios highlight the significant role of TWW in augmenting the aquifer storage, improving

  4. An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland: skill, case studies and scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Addor

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The Sihl River flows through Zurich, Switzerland's most populated city, for which it represents the largest flood threat. To anticipate extreme discharge events and provide decision support in case of flood risk, a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS was launched operationally in 2008. This model chain relies on limited-area atmospheric forecasts provided by the deterministic model COSMO-7 and the probabilistic model COSMO-LEPS. These atmospheric forecasts are used to force a semi-distributed hydrological model (PREVAH, coupled to a hydraulic model (FLORIS. The resulting hydrological forecasts are eventually communicated to the stakeholders involved in the Sihl discharge management. This fully operational setting provides a real framework with which to compare the potential of deterministic and probabilistic discharge forecasts for flood mitigation.

    To study the suitability of HEPS for small-scale basins and to quantify the added-value conveyed by the probability information, a reforecast was made for the period June 2007 to December 2009 for the Sihl catchment (336 km2. Several metrics support the conclusion that the performance gain can be of up to 2 days lead time for the catchment considered. Brier skill scores show that overall COSMO-LEPS-based hydrological forecasts outperforms their COSMO-7-based counterparts for all the lead times and event intensities considered. The small size of the Sihl catchment does not prevent skillful discharge forecasts, but makes them particularly dependent on correct precipitation forecasts, as shown by comparisons with a reference run driven by observed meteorological parameters. Our evaluation stresses that the capacity of the model to provide confident and reliable mid-term probability forecasts for high discharges is limited. The two most intense events of the study period are investigated utilising a novel graphical representation of probability forecasts, and are used

  5. Physical studies of transmutation scenarios. The Muse program with the Masurca facility: a step towards an hybrid demonstrator?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouchard, J.; Leconte, Ph.; Doubre, H.; Bhatnagar, V.P.; Carbonnier, J.L.; Chawla, R.; Bernard, H.

    2002-01-01

    The Muse research program, which started in 1995, is a contribution to the development of a dedicated subcritical accelerator driven system (ADS) for the transmutation of minor actinides produced by conventional nuclear power plants. The Muse experiments aim at making a parametric study of different reactor core compositions with different subcritical levels and supplied by different sources in order to demonstrate that the measurement techniques and the calculation charts established for critical FBRs remain valid with an hybrid system. The 4. phase of the Muse program concerns the design, realization and installation of the Genepi (generator of intense pulse neutrons) deutons accelerator at the Masurca facility of Cadarache (France) for the understanding of the neutronic behaviour of an ADS, the definition of a reference calculation scheme, and the development of specific experimental techniques for dynamical measurements. This document brings together the presentations (transparencies) given at the SFEN technical meeting of May 30, 2002 about the Muse program. (J.S.)

  6. ILC Operating Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barklow, T.; Brau, J.; Fujii, K.; Gao, J.; List, J.; Walker, N.; Yokoya, K.; Collaboration: ILC Parameters Joint Working Group

    2015-06-15

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision energy of the ILC and expand the scientific impact of the ILC physics program. It is envisioned that a decision on a possible energy upgrade would be taken near the end of the twenty year period considered in this report.

  7. Phase I clinical studies with WR-2721

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kligerman, M.M.; Shaw, M.T.; Slavik, M.; Yuhas, J.M.

    1980-01-01

    Toxicity studies of S-2-(3 aminopropylamino)-ethylphosphorothioic acid (WR-2721) access patients in remission following radiation therapy. The dose has been escalated from 25 to 250 mg/m2 without significant symptoms. Inconsistent variation in the systolic blood pressure in some patients has been observed over an 8-10-point range without producing any symptoms. Combining WR-2721 with conventional radiotherapy is contemplated by intravenous injection the drug 20 to 30 minutes before irradiation. This will start as weekly injections, and the number of weekly injections will be increased progessively. Animal studies suggest that the level already safely reached could give significant protection to the normal tissues without protecting tumor

  8. Study of two-phase foam flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gurbanov, R S; Guliev, B B; Mekhtiev, K G; Kerimov, R G

    1970-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to determine characteristics of aqueous foam flow through porous media and to estimate the depth of foam penetration into a formation. Foam was generated by mixing air and 1% solution of surfactant PO-1. Foam density was maintained at 0.14 g/cc in all experiments. The foam was passed through sand columns (800 mm long x 30 mm diam) of permeabilities 26, 39, 80, 111, and 133 darcys. Flow rates were measured at various pressure drops and the relationship between system parameters was expressed analytically and graphically. From the data, distance of foam penetration into a formation as a function of pressure drop and permeability was calculated. The data indicate that under most conditions, foam will penetrate the formation to a negligible distance. This study indicates that when foam is used to remove sand from a well, a negligible loss of foam to the formation occurs.

  9. Study on introduction scenario of the high temperature gas-cooled reactor hydrogen cogeneration system (GTHTR300C). Part 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishihara, Tetsuo; Takeda, Tetsuaki

    2005-09-01

    Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute is carrying out the research and development of the high temperature gas-cooled reactor hydrogen cogeneration system (GTHTR300C) aiming at the practical use around 2030. Preconditions of GTHTR300C introduction are the increase of hydrogen demand and the needs of new nuclear power plants. In order to establish the introduction scenario, it should be clarified that the operational status of existing nuclear power plants, the introduction number of fuel cell vehicles as a main user of hydrogen and the capability of hydrogen supply by existing plants. In this report, estimation of the nuclear power plants that will be decommissioned with a high possibility by 2030 and selection of the model district where the GTHTR300C can be introduced as an alternative system are conducted. Then the hydrogen demand and the capability of hydrogen supply in this district are investigated and the hydrogen supply scenario in 2030 is considered. (author)

  10. Optimized Hybrid Renewable Energy System of Isolated Islands in Smart-Grid Scenario - A Case Study in Indian Context

    OpenAIRE

    Aurobi Das; V. Balakrishnan

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses on the integration of hybrid renewable energy resources available in remote isolated islands of Sundarban-24 Parganas-South of Eastern part of India to National Grid of conventional power supply to give a Smart-Grid scenario. Before grid-integration, feasibility of optimization of hybrid renewable energy system is monitored through an Intelligent Controller proposed to be installed at Moushuni Island of Sundarban. The objective is to ensure the reliability and efficiency of...

  11. Advanced supersonic propulsion study, phase 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howlett, R. A.

    1977-01-01

    Installation characteristics for a Variable Stream Control Engine (VSCE) were studied for three advanced supersonic airplane designs. Sensitivity of the VSCE concept to change in technology projections was evaluated in terms of impact on overall installed performance. Based on these sensitivity results, critical technology requirements were reviewed, resulting in the reaffirmation of the following requirements: low-noise nozzle system; a high performance, low emissions duct burner and main burner; hot section technology; variable geometry components; and propulsion integration features, including an integrated electronic control system.

  12. Western Wind and Solar Integration Study: Phase 2 (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lew, D.; Brinkman, G.; Ibanez, E.; Lefton, S.; Kumar, N.; Venkataraman, S.; Jordan, G.

    2013-09-01

    This presentation summarizes the scope and results of the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study Phase 2, which examined operational impacts of high penetrations of variable renewable generation in the West.

  13. External fuel vaporization study, phase 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szetela, E. J.; Chiappetta, L.

    1981-01-01

    An analytical study was conducted to evaluate the effect of variations in fuel properties on the design of an external fuel vaporizaton system. The fuel properties that were considered included thermal stability, critical temperature, enthalpy a critical conditions, volatility, and viscosity. The design parameters that were evaluated included vaporizer weight and the impact on engine requirement such as maintenance, transient response, performance, and altitude relight. The baseline fuel properties were those of Jet A. The variation in thermal stability was taken as the thermal stability variation for Experimental Referee Broad Specification (ERBS) fuel. The results of the analysis indicate that a change in thermal stability equivalent to that of ERBS would increase the vaporization system weight by 20 percent, decrease oprating time between cleaning by 40 percent and make altitude relight more difficult. An increase in fuel critical temperature of 39 K would require a 40 percent increase in vaporization system weight. The assumed increase in enthalpy and volatility would also increase vaporizer weight by 40 percent and make altitude relight extremely difficult. The variation in fuel viscosity would have a negligible effect on the design parameters.

  14. A Study of the Influence of Field of the Study and Gender on Ethical Values: Iranian Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Moradi

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The value is a social event that has an important role in the human life, since forming of firstly societies till now. In reality, the human life has been formed from set of selections that people set forth from that a system of values. The nature of value is selection and freely confirmation on one hand value is guidance and determiner of social trends and on the other hand determiner of social action and manner that are manifesting on rules and manners, regulations, holy principles and routine life methods (Schwartz and Anat 2004. Indeed values are mental judgment of people. In reality these are values that form special frameworks for social people-because they know which manner is suitable in each situation. The values are important determiner of the performance method, actions’ route and how to prefer targets in cultural,educational, family, political and religious systems for each society.In scope of considering for manner science, the values are one of the pivotal conceptions that has created the background of convergence amid different scopes of humanities and acted as a key conception for systematic studying in humanities (Schwartz, 1999. Understanding of thevalues of commercial students is useful for their guidance can be used for rising of education, reinforcement and their successive training. The commercial students will be coming professionals and nowadays people pay attention to the ethical in jobs and the members of profession are encouraged to follow the whole ethics, furthermore the understanding of values for commercial students is useful for their guidance. Determining of value differences between men and women with the remarkable presence of women in commercial jobs can be important for anticipating and controlling of coming manners that are related to job and managing ofhuman recourses. Furthermore considering of ethical insight of commercial students and men and women seem essential. The aim of this article is comparison

  15. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

  16. Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

    2013-09-01

    This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

  17. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  18. Integrated thermal treatment system study -- Phase 2 results. Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feizollahi, F.; Quapp, W.J.

    1996-02-01

    This report presents the second phase of a study on thermal treatment technologies. The study consists of a systematic assessment of nineteen thermal treatment alternatives for the contact-handled mixed low-level waste (MLLW) currently stored in the US Department of Energy complex. The treatment alternatives consist of widely varying technologies for safely destroying the hazardous organic components, reducing the volume, and preparing for final disposal of the MLLW. The alternatives considered in Phase 2 were innovative thermal treatments with nine types of primary processing units. Other variations in the study examined the effect of combustion gas, air pollution control system design, and stabilization technology for the treatment residues. The Phase 1 study examined ten initial thermal treatment alternatives. The Phase 2 systems were evaluated in essentially the same manner as the Phase 1 systems. The alternatives evaluated were: rotary kiln, slagging kiln, plasma furnace, plasma gasification, molten salt oxidation, molten metal waste destruction, steam gasification, Joule-heated vitrification, thermal desorption and mediated electrochemical oxidation, and thermal desorption and supercritical water oxidation. The quantities, and physical and chemical compositions, of the input waste used in the Phase 2 systems differ from those in the Phase 1 systems, which were based on a preliminary waste input database developed at the onset of the Integrated Thermal Treatment System study. The inventory database used in the Phase 2 study incorporates the latest US Department of Energy information. All systems, both primary treatment systems and subsystem inputs, have now been evaluated using the same waste input (2,927 lb/hr). 28 refs., 88 figs., 41 tabs.

  19. Integrated thermal treatment system study -- Phase 2 results. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feizollahi, F.; Quapp, W.J.

    1996-02-01

    This report presents the second phase of a study on thermal treatment technologies. The study consists of a systematic assessment of nineteen thermal treatment alternatives for the contact-handled mixed low-level waste (MLLW) currently stored in the US Department of Energy complex. The treatment alternatives consist of widely varying technologies for safely destroying the hazardous organic components, reducing the volume, and preparing for final disposal of the MLLW. The alternatives considered in Phase 2 were innovative thermal treatments with nine types of primary processing units. Other variations in the study examined the effect of combustion gas, air pollution control system design, and stabilization technology for the treatment residues. The Phase 1 study examined ten initial thermal treatment alternatives. The Phase 2 systems were evaluated in essentially the same manner as the Phase 1 systems. The alternatives evaluated were: rotary kiln, slagging kiln, plasma furnace, plasma gasification, molten salt oxidation, molten metal waste destruction, steam gasification, Joule-heated vitrification, thermal desorption and mediated electrochemical oxidation, and thermal desorption and supercritical water oxidation. The quantities, and physical and chemical compositions, of the input waste used in the Phase 2 systems differ from those in the Phase 1 systems, which were based on a preliminary waste input database developed at the onset of the Integrated Thermal Treatment System study. The inventory database used in the Phase 2 study incorporates the latest US Department of Energy information. All systems, both primary treatment systems and subsystem inputs, have now been evaluated using the same waste input (2,927 lb/hr). 28 refs., 88 figs., 41 tabs

  20. Wave Tank Studies of Phase Velocities of Short Wind Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ermakov, S.; Sergievskaya, I.; Shchegolkov, Yu.

    Wave tank studies of phase velocities of short wind waves have been carried out using Ka-band radar and an Optical Spectrum Analyser. The phase velocities were retrieved from measured radar and optical Doppler shifts, taking into account measurements of surface drift velocities. The dispersion relationship was studied in centimetre (cm)- and millimetre(mm)-scale wavelength ranges at different fetches and wind speeds, both for a clean water surface and for water covered with surfactant films. It is ob- tained that the phase velocities do not follow the dispersion relation of linear capillary- gravity waves, increasing with fetch and, therefore, depending on phase velocities of dominant decimetre (dm)-centimetre-scale wind waves. One thus can conclude that nonlinear cm-mm-scale harmonics bound to the dominant wind waves and propagat- ing with the phase velocities of the decimetric waves are present in the wind wave spectrum. The resulting phase velocities of short wind waves are determined by re- lation between free and bound waves. The relative intensity of the bound waves in the spectrum of short wind waves is estimated. It is shown that this relation depends strongly on the surfactant concentration, because the damping effect due to films is different for free and bound waves; this results to changes of phase velocities of wind waves in the presence of surfactant films. This work was supported by MOD, UK via DERA Winfrith (Project ISTC 1774P) and by RFBR (Project 02-05-65102).

  1. Studying Suspended Sediment Mechanism with Two-Phase PIV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matinpour, H.; Atkinson, J. F.; Bennett, S. J.; Guala, M.

    2017-12-01

    Suspended sediment transport affects soil erosion, agriculture and water resources quality. Turbulent diffusion is the most primary force to maintain sediments in suspension. Although extensive previous literature have been studying the interactions between turbulent motion and suspended sediment, mechanism of sediments in suspension is still poorly understood. In this study, we investigate suspension of sediments as two distinct phases: one phase of sediments and another phase of fluid with turbulent motions. We designed and deployed a state-of-the-art two-phase PIV measurement technique to discriminate these two phases and acquire velocities of each phase separately and simultaneously. The technique that we have developed is employing a computer-vision based method, which enables us to discriminate sediment particles from fluid tracer particles based on two thresholds, dissimilar particle sizes and different particle intensities. Results indicate that fluid turbulence decreases in the presence of suspended sediments. Obtaining only sediment phase consecutive images enable us to compute fluctuation sediment concentration. This result enlightens understanding of complex interaction between the fluctuation velocities and the fluctuation of associated mass and compares turbulent viscosity with turbulent eddy diffusivity experimentally.

  2. The big bang as a result of the first-order phase transition driven by a change of the scalar curvature in an expanding early Universe: The “hyperinflation” scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pashitskii, E. A., E-mail: pashitsk@iop.kiev.ua; Pentegov, V. I. [National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Institute of Physics (Ukraine)

    2016-01-15

    We suggest that the Big Bang could be a result of the first-order phase transition driven by a change in the scalar curvature of the 4D spacetime in an expanding cold Universe filled with a nonlinear scalar field φ and neutral matter with an equation of state p = νε (where p and ε are the pressure and energy density of the matter, respectively). We consider the Lagrangian of a scalar field with nonlinearity φ{sup 4} in a curved spacetime that, along with the term–ξR|φ|{sup 2} quadratic in φ (where ξ is the interaction constant between the scalar and gravitational fields and R is the scalar curvature), contains the term ξRφ{sub 0}(φ + φ{sup +}) linear in φ, where φ{sub 0} is the vacuum mean of the scalar field amplitude. As a consequence, the condition for the existence of extrema of the scalar-field potential energy is reduced to an equation cubic in φ. Provided that ν > 1/3, the scalar curvature R = [κ(3ν–1)ε–4Λ] (where κ and Λ are Einstein’s gravitational and cosmological constants, respectively) decreases with decreasing ε as the Universe expands, and a first-order phase transition in variable “external field” parameter proportional to R occurs at some critical value R{sub c} < 0. Under certain conditions, the critical radius of the early Universe at the point of the first-order phase transition can reach an arbitrary large value, so that this scenario of unrestricted “inflation” of the Universe may be called “hyperinflation.” After the passage through the phase-transition point, the scalar-field potential energy should be rapidly released, which must lead to strong heating of the Universe, playing the role of the Big Bang.

  3. Systems study of fuels from grains and grasses. Phase I. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benson, W.; Allen, A.; Athey, R.; McElroy, A.; Davis, M.; Bennett, M.

    1978-02-24

    The program reported on herein consists of a first phase analysis of the potential for significant and economically viable contributions to U.S. energy needs from grasses and grains by the photosynthetic production of biomass. The study does not include other cultivated crops such as sugar cane, sugar beets, cotton, tobacco, vegetables, fruits, etc. The scope of the study encompasses grain crop residues, whole plant biomass from grain crops and nongrain crops on cropland, and whole plant biomass from grasses on pasture, rangeland, and federal range. The basic approach to the study involves first an assessment of current total biomass generation from the various grasses and grains on cropland, pasture, range, and federal range, and aggregating the production by combinations of crop residues and whole plant biomass; second, evaluation of possibilities for introduction of new crops and expanding production to marginal or presently idle land; third, development of proposed reasonable scenarios for actually harvesting biomass from selected combinations of crop residues, forages and hays, and new crops from land now in production, plus additional marginal or underutilized land brought into production; and finally, assessment on national and regional or local scales of the production that might be affected by reasonable scenarios. This latter effort includes analysis of tentative possibilities for reallocating priorities and needs with regard to production of grain for export or for livestock production. The overall program includes a case study analysis of production economics for a representative farm of about 1,000 acres (405 ha) located in Iowa.

  4. Structural and phase studies of stainless wire after electroplastic drawing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Troitskij, O.A.; Baldokhin, Yu.V.; Kir'yanchev, N.E.; Ryzhkov, V.G.; Kalugin, V.D.; Sokolov, N.V.; Klekovkin, A.A.; Klevtsur, S.A.

    1983-01-01

    Structural and phase properties of the 12Kh18N10T steel wire are studied after usual and electroplastic drawing from 0.40 up to 0.11 mm with 18-22% reduction per pass with passing 250 A/mm 2 electric current. The earlier made observation on a sharp decrease in content of deformation-induced martensite of α-phase takes place in the wire from stainless metastable austenitic steel as a result of electroplastic drawing. Distribution of the remained α-phase by the wire cross section is established

  5. Neutron scattering studies of pretransitional phenomena in structural phase transformations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapiro, S.M.

    1979-03-01

    Materials exhibiting structural phase transformations are well known to possess pretransitional phenomena. Below the transition temperature, T/sub c/, an order parameter appears and the pretransitional effects are associated with the fluctuations of the order parameter. Neutron scattering techniques have proved invaluable in studying the temporal and spatial dependence of these fluctuations. SrTiO 3 is the prototypical example of a structural phase transformation exhibiting features observable in other transformations such as martensitic and order-disorder. The experimental evolution of the understanding of the phase transformation in SrTiO 3 will be reviewed and the features observed will be shown to typify other systems

  6. Theoretical study of titanium phases; Etude theorique des phases du titane

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trinite, V

    2006-10-15

    The aim of this work is to obtain a good understanding of the phase diagram of titanium within density functional theory. This diagram is composed of the alpha phase, the high pressure omega phase and the high temperature beta phase. This requires the differences in total energy to be predicted with a great precision, because these differences are around 50 meV. I find the omega phase to be the most stable one by ab initio calculation at zero temperature and pressure, in contradiction to the experimental results. I find this inversion of the stability also appears in titanium dioxide and zirconium. I have analyzed all the approximations brought into play in the ab initio approach. I have estimated the zero point energy and studied the impact of including the semi-core states as well as the effect of the exchange-correlation functionals. The conclusion is that the usual approximations for the exchange-correlation generate the biggest part of the error. A possible correction is to take into account the electronic self-interaction. I have apply this correction to the semi-core states and find a systematic improvement of the cell parameters, but no improvement on the phase stability. So I can conclude that a better description of the exchange interaction on the localized 3d states is needed. Although the standard functionals of exchange-correlation are not accurate enough to predict the phase diagrams of titanium, they perform well in describing physical properties less demanding in terms of precision, like elastic constants. However, I find important that the predicted equilibrium volume must be precise, as these properties are found strongly dependent on the volume. (author)

  7. Aging of snubbers in nuclear service: Phase I study results and Phase II plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodman, R.L.; Bush, S.H.; Page, R.E.

    1988-01-01

    Two major research areas were investigated in the Phase I snubber aging studies. The first area involved a preliminary evaluation of the effects of various aging mechanisms on snubber operation; failure modes of mechanisms were identified and their contributions to aging degradation were assessed relative to other failure modes. The second area involved estimating the efficacy of existing tests and examinations that are intended to determine the effects of aging and degradation. Available data on snubber behavior and operating experience were reviewed, using licensee event reports and other historical data for the 10-year period from 1973 through 1983. Value-impact was considered in terms of (1) exposure of workers to radioactive environments for examination/testing and (2) the cost for expansion of the snubber testing program due to failed snubbers. Results from the Phase I studies identified the need to modify or improve examination and testing procedures to enhance snubber reliability. Based on the results of the Phase I snubber studies, the seals and fluids were identified as the two principal elements affected by aging degradation in hydraulic snubbers. Phase II work, which was initiated in FY 1987, will develop cooperative activities between PNL and operating utilities through the Snubber Utility Group (SNUG), who will work to establish a strong data and experience base for both hydraulic and mechanical snubbers based on actual operating and maintenance history at nuclear power plants. Application guidelines for snubbers will be recommended based on the study results

  8. Classified study and clinical value of the phase imaging features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dang Yaping; Ma Aiqun; Zheng Xiaopu; Yang Aimin; Xiao Jiang; Gao Xinyao

    2000-01-01

    445 patients with various heart diseases were examined by the gated cardiac blood pool imaging, and the phase was classified. The relationship between the seven types with left ventricular function index, clinical heart function, different heart diseases as well as electrocardiograph was studied. The results showed that the phase image classification could match with the clinical heart function. It can visually, directly and accurately indicate clinical heart function and can be used to identify diagnosis of heart disease

  9. Considerations of stationary-phase interactions in groundwater pollution studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, E.S.

    1980-01-01

    Studies of groundwater pollution are complicated by retention of both pollutant and tracers as static phases associated with the rock matrix. Three types of static phase are considered: (1) immobile pore water, (2) equilibrium adsorbed layers and (3) bulk precipitates, including biological systems. A brief discussion of the systems is given with examples from the work of the Water Research Centre on the problems encountered in quantifying groundwater pollution where static contamination may occur. (author)

  10. Phase equilibrium study on system uranium-plutonium-tungsten-carbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ugajin, Mitsuhiro

    1976-11-01

    Metallurgical properties of the U-Pu-W-C system have been studied with emphasis on phases and reactions. Free energy of compound formation, carbon activity and U/Pu segregation in the W-doped carbide fuel are estimated using phase diagram data. The results indicate that tungsten metal is useful as a thermochemical stabilizer of the carbide fuel. Tungsten has high temperature stability in contact with uranium carbide and mixed uranium-plutonium carbide. (auth.)

  11. Scenario development methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  12. Columnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer – first results from a feasibility study Part III: Preliminary results on physicochemical model performance using two "clean air mass" reference scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Hellmuth

    2006-01-01

    , that observations from the surface layer alone are not conclusive to elucidate the origin of newly formed particles. This is also true with respect to the interpretation of box modelling studies. The binary and ternary NPF bursts observed in the surface layer differ with respect to burst amplitude and phase. New particles simulated in the binary scenario are formed in the forenoon in the upper part of the growing CBL, followed by turbulence-induced top-down transport. Hence, with respect to the burst observation site in the surface layer, new particles are formed ex situ. In opposite to this, the ternary case reveals a much more complex pattern. Here, NPF is initiated in the early morning hours in the surface layer, when temperature (T is low and relative humidity (RH, sulphur dioxide (SO2 and NH3 concentrations are high, hence new particles are formed in situ. Shortly after that, ex situ NPF in the free troposphere sets in, followed by entrainment and top-down diffusion of newly formed particles into the surface layer. Altogether, these processes mainly contribute to the formation of a strong burst in the morning hours in the ternary scenario. While the time-height cross-section of the binary nucleation rate resembles a "blob"-like evolution pattern, the ternary one resembles a "sucking tube"-like pattern. The time-height cross-sections of the flux pattern and double correlations could be plausibly interpreted in terms of CBL turbulence and entrainment/detrainment processes both in the binary and in the ternary case. Although the present approach is a pure conceptual one, it shows the feasibility to simulate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the CBL. Prior to a dedicated verification/validation study, further attempts are necessary to consider a more advanced description of the formation and activation of thermodynamically stable clusters according to modern concepts proposed by Kulmala et al. (2000, Kulmala (2003 and Kulmala et al. (2004a.

  13. Study on a phase space representation of quantum theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ranaivoson, R.T.R; Raoelina Andriambololona; Hanitriarivo, R.; Raboanary, R.

    2013-01-01

    A study on a method for the establishment of a phase space representation of quantum theory is presented. The approach utilizes the properties of Gaussian distribution, the properties of Hermite polynomials, Fourier analysis and the current formulation of quantum mechanics which is based on the use of Hilbert space and linear operators theory. Phase space representation of quantum states and wave functions in phase space are introduced using properties of a set of functions called harmonic Gaussian functions. Then, new operators called dispersion operators are defined and identified as the operators which admit as eigenstates the basis states of the phase space representation. Generalization of the approach for multidimensional cases is shown. Examples of applications are given.

  14. Preliminary Studies Of A Phase Modulation Technique For Measuring Chromaticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, C.-Y.

    2006-01-01

    The classical method for measuring chromaticity is to slowly modulate the RF frequency and then measure the betatron tune excursion. The technique that is discussed in this paper instead modulates the phase of the RF and then the chromaticity is obtained by phase demodulating the betatron tune. This technique requires knowledge of the betatron frequency in real time in order for the phase to be demodulated. Fortunately, the Tevatron has a tune tracker based on the phase locked loop principle which fits this requirement. A preliminary study with this technique has showed that it is a promising method for doing continuous chromaticity measurement and raises the possibility of doing successful chromaticity feedback with it

  15. Plutonium disposition study phase 1b final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    This report provides the results of the Westinghouse activities performed as part of the Plutonium Disposition Study Phase 1b. These activities, which took place from May 16, 1993 to September 15, 1993, build upon the work completed in Phase 1a, which concluded on May 15, 1993. In Phase 1a, three Plutonium Disposal Reactor (PDR) options were developed for the disposal of excess weapons grade plutonium from returned and dismantled nuclear weapons. This report documents the results of several tasks that were performed to further knowledge in specific areas leading up to Phase 2 of the PDR Study. The Westinghouse activities for Phase 1b are summarized as follows: (1) resolved technical issues concerning reactor physics including equilibrium cycle calculations, use of gadolinium, moderator temperature coefficient, and others as documented in Section 2.0; (2) analyzed large Westinghouse commercial plants for plutonium disposal; (3) reactor safety issues including the steam line break were resolved, and are included in Section 2.0; (4) several tasks related to the PDR Fuel Cycle were examined; (5) cost and deployment options were examined to determine optimal configuration for both plutonium disposal and tritium production; (6) response to questions from DOE and National Academy of Scientists (NAS) reviewers concerning the PDR Phase 1a report are included in Appendix A

  16. From scenarios to components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  17. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  18. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  19. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  20. Phase field model for the study of boiling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruyer, P.

    2006-07-01

    This study concerns both the modeling and the numerical simulation of boiling flows. First we propose a review concerning nucleate boiling at high wall heat flux and focus more particularly on the current understanding of the boiling crisis. From this analysis we deduce a motivation for the numerical simulation of bubble growth dynamics. The main and remaining part of this study is then devoted to the development and analyze of a phase field model for the liquid-vapor flows with phase change. We propose a thermodynamic quasi-compressible formulation whose properties match the one required for the numerical study envisaged. The system of governing equations is a thermodynamically consistent regularization of the sharp interface model, that is the advantage of the di use interface models. We show that the thickness of the interface transition layer can be defined independently from the thermodynamic description of the bulk phases, a property that is numerically attractive. We derive the kinetic relation that allows to analyze the consequences of the phase field formulation on the model of the dissipative mechanisms. Finally we study the numerical resolution of the model with the help of simulations of phase transition in simple configurations as well as of isothermal bubble dynamics. (author)

  1. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  2. Case study: Evaluation of a scenario for the reuse of structures in the production area at Fernald

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, M.J.; Folga, S.; Janke, R.J.; Kozlowski, D.R.

    1995-01-01

    The potential for the reuse of uncontaminated structures at federal facilities that are being remediated should be evaluated. Although various factors often limit the viability of such reuse, it may be economically attractive to reuse selected structures. Consideration of a hypothetical reuse scenario for the US Department of Energy's Fernald, Ohio facility shows that the reuse of selected buildings that were not significantly contaminated by production activities at the site may be considerably less expensive than the construction of new ones. The cost of removal of existing buildings is a major factor influencing the relative advantages of these two options. For Fernald, no need for the facility's buildings has been identified; however, the reuse of structures may be a viable option at other facilities

  3. Rate theory scenarios study on fission gas behavior of U 3 Si 2 under LOCA conditions in LWRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miao, Yinbin; Gamble, Kyle A.; Andersson, David; Mei, Zhi-Gang; Yacout, Abdellatif M.

    2018-01-01

    Fission gas behavior of U3Si2 under various loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions in light water reactors (LWRs) was simulated using rate theory. A rate theory model for U3Si2 that covers both steady-state operation and power transients was developed for the GRASS-SST code based on existing research reactor/ion irradiation experimental data and theoretical predictions of density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The steady-state and LOCA condition parameters were either directly provided or inspired by BISON simulations. Due to the absence of in-pile experiment data for U3Si2's fuel performance under LWR conditions at this stage of accident tolerant fuel (ATF) development, a variety of LOCA scenarios were taken into consideration to comprehensively and conservatively evaluate the fission gas behavior of U3Si2 during a LOCA.

  4. Western Wind and Solar Integration Study Phase 2 (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lew, D.; Brinkman, G.; Ibanez, E.; Kumar, N.; Lefton, S.; Jordan, G.; Venkataraman, S.; King, J.

    2013-06-01

    This presentation accompanies Phase 2 of the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, a follow-on to Phase 1, which examined the operational impacts of high penetrations of variable renewable generation on the electric power system in the West and was one of the largest variable generation studies to date. High penetrations of variable generation can induce cycling of fossil-fueled generators. Cycling leads to wear-and-tear costs and changes in emissions. Phase 2 calculated these costs and emissions, and simulated grid operations for a year to investigate the detailed impact of variable generation on the fossil-fueled fleet. The presentation highlights the scope of the study and results.

  5. Keeping it pure – a pedagogical case study of teaching soft systems methodology in scenario and policy analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian Yeoman

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – Soft systems methodology (SSM is well documented in the academic and management literature. Over the last 40 years, the methodology has come to be adapted depending on the tool users’ skills and experience in order to fit the problem. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate good teaching and learning practice from a pedagogical perspective. Design/methodology/approach – Dr Ian Yeoman of Victoria University of Wellington provides a personal reflection of how the methodology is used in the teaching and learning of TOUR301 Tourism Policy and Planning as a policy and scenario analysis method. Findings – The paper articulates the seven stages of SSM from problem situation unstructured, through to Rich Pictures, vision and guiding principles, policy solutions, comparisons, feasibility and implementation stages. The paper uses a series of teaching tasks to breakdown the complexity of the methodology thus guiding students and teachers in how to deploy the methodology in the classroom. Originality/value – The value of the paper demonstrates the reflective practice of SSM in action as an exemplar of good practice. The paper clearly articulates the stages of the methodology so students and teachers can adopt this approach in classroom environments following a scaffolding learning approach. The use of teaching tasks throughout the paper helps bring clarity and order thus enabling the teacher to effectively teach the subject and the students to learn. The most significant contribution of this paper is the articulation of good teaching practice in policy and scenario analysis which articulated through four learning lessons: facilitating a learning environment; the impact of visual thinking; political theory; the importance of incremental learning; and problem-based learning and international students.

  6. Noah’s Ark or World Wild Web? Cultural Perspectives in Global Scenario Studies and Their Function for Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carijn Beumer

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios and their assumptions on biodiversity conservation, using a framework based on the cultural theory (CT perspectives. We explored an adaptation of the CT typology and the significance of some underrepresented worldviews for discussions on conservation in a changing world. The evaluation of the assumptions on biodiversity conservation in the scenario studies and storylines adds to our understanding of the socio-cultural dimensions of biodiversity loss in a changing world. It contributes to an understanding of the worldviews underlying the complex debates on biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. Making such assumptions and world views explicit will help policymakers and conservationists discuss the diversity of conservation strategies in the face of uncertainty.

  7. Single-phase and two phase bubbly flow in a T connection: theoretical and experimental study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hervieu, Eric

    1988-01-01

    The objective of this research thesis is to highlight the driving factors of the separation of phases of a bubbly flow in a T junction, and to develop a prediction model. In a first part, the author reports the rigorous formulation of equations averaged on the T volume. He shows that it's not possible to solve globally the problem with these equations. Then, he reports a bibliographical study on the modelling of a bubbly flow, and, based upon this study, highlights intrinsic characteristics of the flow, and explains its dynamic mechanisms. He reports the development of the theoretical model, and describes the experimental installation used to validate it. In the third part, he reports the study of the liquid-gas interaction, and presents the adopted approach: study of the behaviour of an isolated bubble within a single-phase flow. Experimentation is used to check theoretical predictions. Results are used to compute phase separation. The obtained results are again compared with experimental results to validate the global relevance of the model [fr

  8. Simulation of Crop Growth and Water-Saving Irrigation Scenarios for Lettuce: A Monsoon-Climate Case Study in Kampong Chhnang, Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pinnara Ket

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Setting up water-saving irrigation strategies is a major challenge farmers face, in order to adapt to climate change and to improve water-use efficiency in crop productions. Currently, the production of vegetables, such as lettuce, poses a greater challenge in managing effective water irrigation, due to their sensitivity to water shortage. Crop growth models, such as AquaCrop, play an important role in exploring and providing effective irrigation strategies under various environmental conditions. The objectives of this study were (i to parameterise the AquaCrop model for lettuce (Lactuca sativa var. crispa L. using data from farmers’ fields in Cambodia, and (ii to assess the impact of two distinct full and deficit irrigation scenarios in silico, using AquaCrop, under two contrasting soil types in the Cambodian climate. Field observations of biomass and canopy cover during the growing season of 2017 were used to adjust the crop growth parameters of the model. The results confirmed the ability of AquaCrop to correctly simulate lettuce growth. The irrigation scenario analysis suggested that deficit irrigation is a “silver bullet” water saving strategy that can save 20–60% of water compared to full irrigation scenarios in the conditions of this study.

  9. Ancillary health effects of climate mitigation scenarios as drivers of policy uptake: a review of air quality, transportation and diet co-benefits modeling studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Kelly M.; Hess, Jeremy J.; Balbus, John M.; Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Cleveland, David A.; Grabow, Maggie L.; Neff, Roni; Saari, Rebecca K.; Tessum, Christopher W.; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodward, Alistair; Ebi, Kristie L.

    2017-11-01

    Background: Significant mitigation efforts beyond the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) coming out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are required to avoid warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. Health co-benefits represent selected near term, positive consequences of climate policies that can offset mitigation costs in the short term before the beneficial impacts of those policies on the magnitude of climate change are evident. The diversity of approaches to modeling mitigation options and their health effects inhibits meta-analyses and syntheses of results useful in policy-making. Methods/Design: We evaluated the range of methods and choices in modeling health co-benefits of climate mitigation to identify opportunities for increased consistency and collaboration that could better inform policy-making. We reviewed studies quantifying the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation related to air quality, transportation, and diet published since the 2009 Lancet Commission ‘Managing the health effects of climate change’ through January 2017. We documented approaches, methods, scenarios, health-related exposures, and health outcomes. Results/Synthesis: Forty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Air quality, transportation, and diet scenarios ranged from specific policy proposals to hypothetical scenarios, and from global recommendations to stakeholder-informed local guidance. Geographic and temporal scope as well as validity of scenarios determined policy relevance. More recent studies tended to use more sophisticated methods to address complexity in the relevant policy system. Discussion: Most studies indicated significant, nearer term, local ancillary health benefits providing impetus for policy uptake and net cost savings. However, studies were more suited to describing the interaction of climate policy and health and the magnitude of potential outcomes than to providing specific accurate estimates of health co-benefits. Modeling

  10. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  11. New reactors concepts and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    2001-01-01

    In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

  12. INPRO phase 1B (2nd part) joint study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Yong Bum; Kim, Young In; Hahn, Do Hee (and others)

    2006-08-15

    In this project, the Korean innovative nuclear energy system(INS) concept was assessed to be contributory to IAEA's INPRO Joint Study on CNFC-FR. The Korean INS concept was defined as an integrated system consisting of a sodium-cooled, metal fueled fast reactor KALIMER and a PWR(including CANDU)-KALIMER coupled closed nuclear fuel cycle for the Joint Study. From the results of the national scenario study performed based o the Korean INS concept, it has veen confirmed that the deployment of KALIMER from 2030 until 2100 could reduce the amount of domestic spent fuel from PWRs and CANDUs with no further increase in PWR spent fuel thereafter. And the amount of minor actinides disposed as high level would be decreased to zero with complete replacement of PWRs with KALIMERs. Based on the results of the national scenario study, a preliminary assessment of the Korean INS concept has been performed using the INPRO methodology and user's manuals. During the INS assessment, items requiring either improvement or complement have been detected in order to dedicate to INPRO's effort to improve the methodology. The INPRO methodology generally lack a consistency in a level of depth and quantity of evaluation criteria and parameters for six areas within the INPRO framework. It needs to complement application methods and guidances applicable to various technology levels as well as illustrations of assessment tools. In addition, it needs to develop quantification and aggregation of evaluated results, application of weighting factor methods, and a synthetic manual for integrated assessment procedure and methodology.

  13. INPRO phase 1B (2nd part) joint study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yong Bum; Kim, Young In; Hahn, Do Hee

    2006-08-01

    In this project, the Korean innovative nuclear energy system(INS) concept was assessed to be contributory to IAEA's INPRO Joint Study on CNFC-FR. The Korean INS concept was defined as an integrated system consisting of a sodium-cooled, metal fueled fast reactor KALIMER and a PWR(including CANDU)-KALIMER coupled closed nuclear fuel cycle for the Joint Study. From the results of the national scenario study performed based o the Korean INS concept, it has veen confirmed that the deployment of KALIMER from 2030 until 2100 could reduce the amount of domestic spent fuel from PWRs and CANDUs with no further increase in PWR spent fuel thereafter. And the amount of minor actinides disposed as high level would be decreased to zero with complete replacement of PWRs with KALIMERs. Based on the results of the national scenario study, a preliminary assessment of the Korean INS concept has been performed using the INPRO methodology and user's manuals. During the INS assessment, items requiring either improvement or complement have been detected in order to dedicate to INPRO's effort to improve the methodology. The INPRO methodology generally lack a consistency in a level of depth and quantity of evaluation criteria and parameters for six areas within the INPRO framework. It needs to complement application methods and guidances applicable to various technology levels as well as illustrations of assessment tools. In addition, it needs to develop quantification and aggregation of evaluated results, application of weighting factor methods, and a synthetic manual for integrated assessment procedure and methodology

  14. Scenarios for Deep Carbon Emission Reductions from Electricity by 2050 in Western North America using the Switch Electric Power Sector Planning Model: California's Carbon Challenge Phase II, Volume II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Kammen, Daniel; Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    This study used a state-of-the-art planning model called SWITCH for the electric power system to investigate the evolution of the power systems of California and western North America from present-day to 2050 in the context of deep decarbonization of the economy. Researchers concluded that drastic power system carbon emission reductions were feasible by 2050 under a wide range of possible futures. The average cost of power in 2050 would range between $149 to $232 per megawatt hour across scenarios, a 21 to 88 percent increase relative to a business-as-usual scenario, and a 38 to 115 percent increase relative to the present-day cost of power. The power system would need to undergo sweeping change to rapidly decarbonize. Between present-day and 2030 the evolution of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council power system was dominated by implementing aggressive energy efficiency measures, installing renewable energy and gas-fired generation facilities and retiring coal-fired generation. Deploying wind, solar and geothermal power in the 2040 timeframe reduced power system emissions by displacing gas-fired generation. This trend continued for wind and solar in the 2050 timeframe but was accompanied by large amounts of new storage and long-distance high-voltage transmission capacity. Electricity storage was used primarily to move solar energy from the daytime into the night to charge electric vehicles and meet demand from electrified heating. Transmission capacity over the California border increased by 40 - 220 percent by 2050, implying that transmission siting, permitting, and regional cooperation will become increasingly important. California remained a net electricity importer in all scenarios investigated. Wind and solar power were key elements in power system decarbonization in 2050 if no new nuclear capacity was built. The amount of installed gas capacity remained relatively constant between present-day and 2050, although carbon capture and sequestration was

  15. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  16. Seismic risk analyses in the German Risk Study, phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosser, D.; Liemersdorf, H.

    1991-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants, Phase B. First simplified analyses in Phase A of the study allowed only a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in Phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in Phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behaviour and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications and model uncertainties. Some results for the PWR reference plant are given. (orig.)

  17. Evaluation of a filmed clinical scenario as a teaching resource for an introductory pharmacology unit for undergraduate health students: A pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    East, Leah; Hutchinson, Marie

    2015-12-01

    Simulation is frequently being used as a learning and teaching resource for both undergraduate and postgraduate students, however reporting of the effectiveness of simulation particularly within the pharmacology context is scant. The aim of this pilot study was to evaluate a filmed simulated pharmacological clinical scenario as a teaching resource in an undergraduate pharmacological unit. Pilot cross-sectional quantitative survey. An Australian university. 32 undergraduate students completing a healthcare degree including nursing, midwifery, clinical science, health science, naturopathy, and osteopathy. As a part of an undergraduate online pharmacology unit, students were required to watch a filmed simulated pharmacological clinical scenario. To evaluate student learning, a measurement instrument developed from Bloom's cognitive domains (knowledge, comprehension, application, analysis, synthesis and evaluation) was employed to assess pharmacological knowledge conceptualisation and knowledge application within the following fields: medication errors; medication adverse effects; medication interactions; and, general pharmacology. The majority of participants were enrolled in an undergraduate nursing or midwifery programme (72%). Results demonstrated that the majority of nursing and midwifery students (56.52%) found the teaching resource complementary or more useful compared to a lecture although less so compared to a tutorial. Students' self-assessment of learning according to Bloom's cognitive domains indicated that the filmed scenario was a valuable learning tool. Analysis of variance indicated that health science students reported higher levels of learning compared to midwifery and nursing. Students' self-report of the learning benefits of a filmed simulated clinical scenario as a teaching resource suggest enhanced critical thinking skills and knowledge conceptualisation regarding pharmacology, in addition to being useful and complementary to other teaching and

  18. Study on the FBR cycle introduction scenario. 2. A study on the role of nuclear energy under the diversity of energy supply-and-demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohtaki, Akira; Ono, Kiyoshi; Hirao, Kazunori

    2002-03-01

    This report concerns it self with the results of an investigation about the possibility of future nuclear utilization in the part of FBR Cycle Introduction Scenario Study in the JNC's 'Feasibility Study on Commercialized Fast Reactor Cycle System (the F/S)'. We have investigated about the problems that confront energy industries and electric power companies, the capacities of distributed generation, the coexistence method of a distributed generation and large-scale power supply generation, and the development status of a small-scale nuclear reactor from a wide viewpoint. Especially the spread of distributed generation causes the decrease of the electricity demand which the electric power companies supplies. Since introduction scale of a distributed power supply is also expected to increase in the future, it will give some influences to a future nuclear plan and a power supply plan. The hydrogen utilization with out greenhouse gas mission is expected to spread with distributed generation, such as a fuel cell and a micro-gas turbine. Therefore, we proposed the new business model that the hydrogen produced by using nuclear surplus electricity is consumed distributed generation, such as a fuel cell and a micro-gas turbine. We plan to evaluate quantitatively the best power supply composition based on this load stability business model, FBR introduction capacities, the load factor, and the amount of CO 2 reduction. (author)

  19. Study supporting the phasing out of environmentally harmful subsidies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Withana, S.; Ten Brink, P.; Franckx, L.; Hirschnitz-Garbers, M.; Mayeres, I.; Oosterhuis, F.; Porsch, L.

    2012-10-15

    The need to reform ineffective or harmful public subsidies has long been recognised and has been a contentious point of discussion for several years. The EU has a long-standing commitment to removing or phasing out environmentally harmful subsidies (EHS). Most recently, the need to phase out EHS is reiterated in the 'Roadmap for a resource efficient Europe' which includes a milestone that 'by 2020 EHS will be phased out, with due regard to the impact on people in need'. Despite several commitments, progress has been slow and subsidies remain an issue in most EU countries. This study focuses specifically on EHS at the level of EU Member States; it identifies key types of EHS and examines cases of existing EHS across a range of environmental sectors and issues, including subsidies from non-action. The study also analyses examples of good practices in the reform of EHS in EU Member States and the lessons that can be learnt from these cases. Finally, based on this analysis, it develops practical recommendations on phasing out and reforming EHS to support the objectives of the Europe 2020 Strategy and the resource efficiency agenda. The study was carried out between January and October 2012 and is based on an analysis of literature and consultation with experts and policy makers. The sectoral cases studied are listed and discussed in the annexes report: agriculture, climate and energy, fisheries, food, forestry, materials, transport, waste, and water.

  20. Phase conjugation of gap solitons: A numerical study

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We study the effect of a nearby phase-conjugate mirror (PCM) on the gap soliton of a. Kerr non-linear ... They are characterized by a sech field distribution corresponding to the ... It is a generalization of the earlier model proposed by Jose et.

  1. Study of effect of chromium on titanium dioxide phase transformation ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Administrator

    Study of effect of chromium on titanium dioxide phase transformation by A Bellifa (pp 669–677). Figure S1. Structural ... 4 × 1⋅9486; 2 × 1⋅9799. Octahedral packing. 2 × 2 shared edges. 8 free edges. 3 shared edges. 4 corners. 5 free edges. 2 parallel shared edges. 2 corners. 10 free edges. O. O. Coordination scheme.

  2. Crystal growth, structure and phase studies on gold halides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, Eugenius Maria Wilhelmus Janssen

    1977-01-01

    Only very corrosive substances attack gold, the most noble metal. In this study the reactivity and the phase diagrams of gold with the halogens chlorine, bromine and iodine have been investigated. owing to the noble behaviour of gold, its halides are sensitive to heat; on heating they decompose into

  3. Caelyx (TM) in malignant mesothelioma : A phase II EORTC study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baas, P; van Meerbeeck, J; Groen, H; Schouwink, H; Burgers, S; Daamen, S; Giaccone, G

    Background: The use of doxorubicin has shown some activity in malignant mesothelioma but prolonged administration is hampered by cardiotoxicity. Caelyx(TM), a new liposomal and pegylated form of doxorubicin has shown a better pharmacokinetic and toxic profile then doxorubicin. In a phase II study,

  4. Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning. Scenario Case Studies using the Resource Planning Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barrows, Clayton [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dyson, Mark [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-04-23

    We examine how model investment decisions change under different model configurations and assumptions related to renewable capacity credit, the inclusion or exclusion of operating reserves, dispatch period sampling, transmission power flow modeling, renewable spur line costs, and the ability of a planning region to import and export power. For all modeled scenarios, we find that under market conditions where new renewable deployment is predominantly driven by renewable portfolio standards, model representations of wind and solar capacity credit and interactions between balancing areas are most influential in avoiding model investments in excess thermal capacity. We also compare computation time between configurations to evaluate tradeoffs between computational burden and model accuracy. From this analysis, we find that certain advanced dispatch representations (e.g., DC optimal power flow) can have dramatic adverse effects on computation time but can be largely inconsequential to model investment outcomes, at least at the renewable penetration levels modeled. Finally, we find that certain underappreciated aspects of new capacity investment decisions and model representations thereof, such as spur lines for new renewable capacity, can influence model outcomes particularly in the renewable technology and location chosen by the model. Though this analysis is not comprehensive and results are specific to the model region, input assumptions, and optimization-modeling framework employed, the findings are intended to provide a guide for model improvement opportunities.

  5. AGARICUS BLAZEI MURRILL MUSHROOM COMPOST STUDY ANAEROBIC AND AEROBIC PHASES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sándor Rózsa

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Compost for the production of Agaricus blazei Murrill mushrooms, is produced from wheat straw, straw-bedded horse manure, chicken manure and gypsum. The substrate is made in two processes called Phase I (anaerobic and Phase II (aerobic. Phase I includes mixing and moistening of the ingredients and a period of uncontrolled self-heating where temperatures will rise to 80ºC. Phase II starts with a pasteurization period of 8h at 56-60ºC and continues with a conditioning period at 45ºC for up to 7 days until volatile NH3 has been cleared from the process by air. Quality parameters for compost cannot be established directly. Moisture and nitrogen contents and pH can be adjusted at the start of Phase I, but the values will be affected during processing. In this paperwork, we studied the physical properties (water content, electrical conductivity and chemical composition (pH, organic matter, nitrogen, calcium, magnesium, ammonia of four recipes of compost: classical, synthetic, mixt and original. During the experience, we recorded every hour the compost and the air temperature and the air relative humidity. The highest yield was obtained on synthetic compost with 42 kg mushrooms on 100 kg of compost.

  6. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  7. Water within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Constraints and the Impact on Future Global Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Davies, E. G.; Calvin, K. V.; Kim, S. H.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

    2017-12-01

    The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) represent the next generation of future global change scenarios and their inclusion in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios reinforces the importance of a complete understanding of the SSPs. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the effects of limited water supplies on future withdrawals at regional and water basin scales across all SSPs in combination with various climate mitigation scenarios. Water supply is calculated using a global hydrologic model and water data from five ISI-MIP models across the four RCP scenarios. When water constraints are incorporated, our results show that water withdrawals are reduced by as much as 40% across all SSP scenarios without climate policies. As climate policies are imposed and become more stringent, water withdrawals increase in regions already affected by water stress in order to allow for greater biomass production. The results of this research show the importance of including water resource constraints within the SSP scenarios for establishing water withdrawal scenarios under a wide range of scenarios including different climate policies. The results will also provide data products - such as gridded land use and water demand estimates - of potential interest to the impact, adaptation, and vulnerability community following the SSP scenarios.

  8. Main results of the german risk study, phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heuser, F.W.

    1988-01-01

    Work on the German Risk Study is under contract of the Federal Ministry of Research and Technology. The reference plant for the analysis is the Biblis nuclear power plant, Unit B, a KWU pressurized water reactor of the 1300 MWel class. The plant is in operation since 1976. First results on Phase A of the study have been published in 1979. Investigations on Phase B have been foreseen to endeepen the analysis. The principal purpose of these investigations is to improve and to optimize the plant's safety features on a more realistic basis. Main objectives of Phase B are: - Completeness of accident event tree analysis taking into account further accident initiating events. - Identification and analyses of accident management measures which are adequate to minimize accidental risk. - improvement of the analysis on an as far as possible realistic basis, thereby taking into account recent results of safety research. The paper deals with the most important results of the plant analyses (level 1 and level 2) which have been performed within the scope of Phases B of the study

  9. Description of relevant scenarios in the field of agricultural, environmental and climate policy and energy prices for the preliminary study on a Roadmap for the 'SuikerUnie'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plomp, A.J.

    2011-11-01

    In the Dutch Long Term Agreements on energy efficiency (MJA3 and MEE)the Dutch government and industry agreed to strive for a 30% energy efficiency improvement in 2020 compared to 2005. To reach more than 30%, it is not enough to optimize; instead larger process changes will be needed. An important instrument is the realization of preliminary studies and roadmaps, which are supported by the government. This memo offers an overview of relevant developments and scenarios from Agricultural, climate and environmental policy and energy prices for the Dutch sugar industry. This memo serves as input for the Preliminary study Roadmap SuikerUnie. [nl

  10. Futures of elderly care in Iran: A protocol with scenario approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goharinezhad, Salime; Maleki, Mohammadreza; Baradaran, Hamid Reza; Ravaghi, Hamid

    2016-01-01

    Background: The number of people aged 60 and older is increasing faster than other age groups worldwide. Iran will experience a sharp aging population increase in the next decades, and this will pose new challenges to the healthcare system. Since providing high quality aged-care services would be the major concern of the policymakers, this question arises that what types of aged care services should be organized in the coming 10 years? This protocol has been designed to develop a set of scenarios for the future of elderly care in Iran. Methods: In this study, intuitive logics approach and Global Business Network (GBN) model were used to develop scenarios for elderly care in Iran. In terms of perspective, the scenarios in this approach are normative, qualitative with respect to methodology and deductive in constructing the process of scenarios. The three phases of GBN model are as follows: 1) Orientation: Identifying strategic levels, stakeholders, participants and time horizon; 2) Exploration: Identifying the driving forces and key uncertainties; 3) Synthesis: Defining the scenario logics and constructing scenario storyline. Results: Presently, two phases are completed and the results will be published in mid-2016. Conclusion: This study delivers a comprehensive framework for taking appropriate actions in providing care for the elderly in the future. Moreover, policy makers should specify and provide the full range of services for the elderly, and in doing so, the scenarios and key findings of this study could be of valuable help.

  11. Carolina Offshore Wind Integration Case Study: Phases I and II Final Technical Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fallon, Christopher [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Piper, Orvane [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Hazelip, William [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Zhao, Yishan [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Salvador, Lisa [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Pruitt, Tom [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Peterson, Jeffrey [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Ashby, Rebecca [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Pierce, Bob [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Burner, Bob [Duke Energy Business Services, LLC, Charlotte, NC (United States); Daniel, John [ABB, Inc., Cary, NC (United States); Zhu, Jinxiang [ABB, Inc., Cary, NC (United States); Moore, Maria [ABB, Inc., Cary, NC (United States); Liu, Shu [ABB, Inc., Cary, NC (United States); Pennock, Ken [AWS Truepower, LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Frank, Jaclyn [AWS Truepower, LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Ibanez, Eduardo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heaney, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bloom, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zhang, Yingchen [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Elliott, Dennis [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Seim, Harvey E. [Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States)

    2015-04-30

    Duke Energy performed a phase 1 study to assess the impact of offshore wind development in the waters off the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina. The study analyzed the impacts to the Duke Energy Carolinas electric power system of multiple wind deployment scenarios. Focusing on an integrated utility system in the Carolinas provided a unique opportunity to assess the impacts of offshore wind development in a region that has received less attention regarding renewables than others in the US. North Carolina is the only state in the Southeastern United States that currently has a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) which requires that 12.5% of the state’s total energy requirements be met with renewable resources by 2021. 12.5% of the state’s total energy requirements in 2021 equates to approximately 17,000 GWH of energy needed from renewable resources. Wind resources represent one of the ways to potentially meet this requirement. The study builds upon and augments ongoing work, including a study by UNC to identify potential wind development sites and the analysis of impacts to the regional transmission system performed by the NCTPC, an Order 890 planning entity of which DEC is a member. Furthermore, because the region does not have an independent system operator (ISO) or regional transmission organization (RTO), the study will provide additional information unique to non-RTO/ISO systems. The Phase 2 study builds on the results of Phase 1 and investigates the dynamic stability of the electrical network in Task 4, the operating characteristics of the wind turbines as they impact operating reserve requirements of the DEC utility in Task 5, and the production cost of integrating the offshore wind resources into the DEC generation fleet making comparisons to future planned operation without the addition of the wind resources in Task 6.

  12. Scenario Analyses of Road Transport Energy Demand: A Case Study of Ethanol as a Diesel Substitute in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atsushi Fukuda

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Ethanol is conventionally used as a blend with gasoline due to its similar properties, especially the octane number. However, ethanol has also been explored and used as a diesel substitute. While a low-blend of ethanol with diesel is possible with use of an emulsifier additive, a high-blend of ethanol with diesel may require major adjustment of compression-ignition (CI diesel engines. Since dedicated CI engines are commercially available for a high-blend ethanol in diesel (ED95, a fuel mixture comprised of 95% ethanol and 5% additive, this technology offers an option for an oil-importing country like Thailand to reduce its fossil import by use of its own indigenous bio-ethanol fuel. Among many strong campaigns on ethanol utilization in the transportation sector under Thailand’s Alternative Energy Strategic Plan (2008–2022, the Thai Ministry of Energy has, for the first time, conducted a demonstration project with ethanol (ED95 buses on the Thai road system. The current investigation thus aims to assess and quantify the impact of using this ED95 technology to reduce fossil diesel consumption by adjusting the commercially available energy demand model called the Long range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP. For this purpose, first, the necessary statistical data in the Thai transportation sector were gathered and analyzed to construct the predicative energy demand model. Then, scenario analyses were conducted to assess the benefit of ED95 technology on the basis of energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emission reduction.

  13. Regional-Level Carbon Emissions Modelling and Scenario Analysis: A STIRPAT Case Study in Henan Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengyan Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Global warming has brought increased attention to the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development. Research on the driving factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption can provide a scientific basis for regional energy savings, as well as emissions reduction and sustainable development. Henan Province is a major agricultural province in China, and it is one of most populous provinces. Industrial development and population growth are the causes of carbon emissions. The STIRPAT model was conducted for analyzing carbon emissions and the driving factors for future carbon emission in Henan Province. The results show that: carbon emissions and energy consumption in Henan Province presented a rising trend from 1995 to 2014; Energy consumption due to population growth is the main contributor to carbon emissions in Henan Province. As every 1% increase in the population, GDP per-capita, energy intensity, and the level of urbanization development will contribute to the growth of emissions by 1.099, 0.193, 0.043, and 0.542%, respectively. The optimization of the industrial structure can reduce carbon emissions in Henan Province, as suggested by the results, when the tertiary sector increased by more than 1%, the total energy consumption of carbon emissions reduced by 1.297%. The future pattern of carbon emissions in Henan Province is predicted to increase initially and then follows by a decreasing trend, according to scenario analysis; and maintaining a low population growth rate, and a high growth rate of GDP per-capita and technical level is the best mode for social and economic development.

  14. Study on thermal-hydraulics during a PWR reflood phase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iguchi, Tadashi [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    1998-10-01

    In-core thermal-hydraulics during a PWR reflood phase following a large-break LOCA are quite unique in comparison with two-phase flow which has been studied widely in previous researches, because the geometry of the flow path is complicated (bundle geometry) and water is at extremely low superficial velocity and almost under stagnant condition. Hence, some phenomena realized during a PWR reflood phase are not understood enough and appropriate analytical models have not been developed, although they are important in a viewpoint of reactor safety evaluation. Therefore, author investigated some phenomena specified as important issues for quantitative prediction, i.e. (1) void fraction in a bundle during a PWR reflood phase, (2) effect of radial core power profile on reflood behavior, (3) effect of combined emergency core coolant injection on reflood behavior, and (4) the core separation into two thermal-hydraulically different regions and the in-core flow circulation behavior observed during a combined injection PWR reflood phase. Further, author made analytical models for these specified issues, and succeeded to predict reflood behaviors at representative types of PWRs, i.e.cold leg injection PWRs and Combined injection PWRs, in good accuracy. Above results were incorporated into REFLA code which is developed at JAERI, and they improved accuracy in prediction and enlarged applicability of the code. In the present study, models were intended to be utilized in a practical use, and hence these models are simplified ones. However, physical understanding on the specified issues in the present study is basic and principal for reflood behavior, and then it is considered to be used in a future advanced code development and improvement. (author). 110 refs.

  15. FEASIBILITY STUDY OF INEXPENSIVE THERMAL SENSORS AND SMALL UAS DEPLOYMENT FOR LIVING HUMAN DETECTION IN RESCUE MISSIONS APPLICATION SCENARIOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Levin

    2016-06-01

    use SUAVs and small thermal sensors for the human detection scenarios described above. Differences in temperatures were collected by deployed imaging acquisition platform are interpretable on FLIR images visually. Moreover, we applied ENVI image processing functions for calibration and numerical estimations of such a temperature differences. There are more potential system functionalities such as voice messages from rescue teams and even distant medication delivery for the victims of described emergencies. This paper describes experiments, processing results, and future research in more details.

  16. Modeling and numerical study of two phase flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Champmartin, A.

    2011-01-01

    This thesis describes the modelization and the simulation of two-phase systems composed of droplets moving in a gas. The two phases interact with each other and the type of model to consider directly depends on the type of simulations targeted. In the first part, the two phases are considered as fluid and are described using a mixture model with a drift relation (to be able to follow the relative velocity between the two phases and take into account two velocities), the two-phase flows are assumed at the equilibrium in temperature and pressure. This part of the manuscript consists of the derivation of the equations, writing a numerical scheme associated with this set of equations, a study of this scheme and simulations. A mathematical study of this model (hyperbolicity in a simplified framework, linear stability analysis of the system around a steady state) was conducted in a frame where the gas is assumed baro-tropic. The second part is devoted to the modelization of the effect of inelastic collisions on the particles when the time of the simulation is shorter and the droplets can no longer be seen as a fluid. We introduce a model of inelastic collisions for droplets in a spray, leading to a specific Boltzmann kernel. Then, we build caricatures of this kernel of BGK type, in which the behavior of the first moments of the solution of the Boltzmann equation (that is mass, momentum, directional temperatures, variance of the internal energy) are mimicked. The quality of these caricatures is tested numerically at the end. (author) [fr

  17. Do we need to account for scenarios of land use/land cover changes in regional climate modeling and impact studies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strada, Susanna; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Perrin, Mathieu; Stefanon, Marc

    2016-04-01

    By modifying the Earth's natural landscapes, humans have introduced an imbalance in the Earth System's energy, water and emission fluxes via land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs). Through land-atmosphere interactions, LULCCs influence weather, air quality and climate at different scales, from regional/local (a few ten kilometres) (Pielke et al., 2011) to global (a few hundred kilometres) (Mahmood et al., 2014). Therefore, in the context of climate change, LULCCs will play a role locally/regionally in altering weather/atmospheric conditions. In addition to the global climate change impacts, LULCCs will possibly induce further changes in the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and thereby affect adaptation strategies. If LULCCs influence weather/atmospheric conditions, could land use planning alter climate conditions and ease the impact of climate change by wisely shaping urban and rural landscapes? Nowadays, numerical land-atmosphere modelling allows to assess LULCC impacts at different scales (e.g., Marshall et al., 2003; de Noblet-Ducoudré et al., 2011). However, most scenarios of climate changes used to force impact models result from downscaling procedures that do not account for LULCCs (e.g., Jacob et al., 2014). Therefore, if numerical modelling may help in tackling the discussion about LULCCs, do existing LULCC scenarios encompass realistic changes in terms of land use planning? In the present study, we apply a surface model to compare projected LULCC scenarios over France and to assess their impacts on surface fluxes (i.e., water, heat and carbon dioxide fluxes) and on water and carbon storage in soils. To depict future LULCCs in France, we use RCP scenarios from the IPCC AR5 report (Moss et al., 2011). LULCCs encompassed in RCPs are discussed in terms of: (a) their impacts on water and energy balance over France, and (b) their feasibility in the framework of land use planning in France. This study is the first step to quantify the sensitivity of land

  18. Experimental study of the Ag-Sn-In phase diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vassilev, Gueorgui P.; Dobrev, Evgueni S.; Tedenac, Jean-Claude

    2005-01-01

    Combined metallographic, differential scanning calorimetry, X-ray and scanning electron microscopy studies have been performed using 27 ternary alloys. The microhardness of the α(Ag), ε(Ag 3 Sn) and ζ(Ag 4 Sn,Ag 3 In) phases has been measured. The ternary extension of the phase φ(Ag x In y Sn z , where x ∼ 0.36, y ∼ 0.61, z ∼ 0.03) has been revealed in some specimens, although the binary compound (AgIn 2 ) melts at 166 deg. C. This finding is attributed to the limited cooling rate. The solubility ranges of the solid solution and the intermetallic phases have been determined. The tin and the indium show approximately equal mutual solubility (around 2 at.%) in the ternary extensions of their Ag-Sn or Ag-In phases. The experimental data have been compared with a calculated isothermal section at 280 deg. C and with a vertical section at 2.5 at.% Ag. The thermal analyses have confirmed, in general, the temperatures of the invariant reactions in the Ag-Sn-In system as calculated by literature data

  19. Developing awareness of sustainability in nursing and midwifery using a scenario-based approach: Evidence from a pre and post educational intervention study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Janet; Grose, Jane; Bradbury, Martyn; Kelsey, Janet

    2017-07-01

    The delivery of healthcare has an impact on the environment and contributes to climate change. As a consequence, the way in which nurses and midwives use and dispose of natural resources in clinical practice, and the subsequent impact on the environment, should be integral component of nursing and midwifery education. Opportunities need to be found to embed such issues into nursing curricula; thus bringing sustainability issues 'closer to home' and making them more relevant for clinical practice. The study was designed to measure the impact of a sustainability-focussed, scenario-based learning educational intervention on the attitudes and knowledge of student nurses and midwives. Pre test/Post test intervention study using scenario-based learning as the educational intervention. The Sustainability Attitudes in Nursing Survey (SANS_2) was used as the outcome measure. Clinical skills session in a UK University School of Nursing and Midwifery. 676 second year undergraduate nursing and midwifery students. The 7-point scale SANS survey was completed before and after the teaching session; standard non-parametric analysis compared pre and post intervention scores. Changes were observed in attitude towards climate change and sustainability and to the inclusion of these topics within the nursing curricula (p=0.000). Participants demonstrated greater knowledge of natural resource use and the cost of waste disposal following the session (p=0.000). Participants also reported that sessions were realistic, and levels of agreement with statements supporting the value of the session and the interactive nature of delivery were higher following the session. Using a scenario-based learning approach with nursing and midwifery students can change attitudes and knowledge towards sustainability and climate change. Embedding this approach in the context of clinical skills provides a novel and engaging approach that is both educationally sound and clinically relevant. Copyright © 2017

  20. Modelling the impact of rural land use scenarios on water management: a FREEWAT approach to the Bakumivka catchment case study, Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mykhailo Grodzynskyi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The Bakumivka River’s catchment, Ukraine serves as a case study to the application of FREEWAT to the ground and surface water management. The main objective of the study is to find out the optimal spatial distribution of the water supplied to the farms by modifying the land cover pattern of the catchment. An integrated numerical model was developed to provide quantitative estimates of the water budget components. The model includes four model layers, representing the main hydrostratigraphic units, different types of boundary conditions assigned along the area’s boundaries, major components of the water balance introduced through source and sink layers. It was implemented through the FREEWAT software. Three water management scenarios were developed in order to compare different spatial patterns of land cover and distribution of water within the Bakumivka River’s basin. The scenarios represent continuum from market oriented pattern to environmentally sounding pattern of land cover. The objective of the modeling exercise is to obtain mass balances and maps representing three scenarios of water management. Each map shows distribution of the areas where the water balance is optimal, insufficient (dry or excessive (wet for vegetation (land cover of particular type.The simulation shows that changing spatial land cover pattern is an effective measure to reduce water supply to the farms, however it does not prevent water logging in the areas adjacent to the flood plains and drying on summer stress periods in lands of sandyloam soils. Irrigation should be excluded in the areas with sandy and sandyloam soils. The flood plain with peat bogs despite the high water head in spring and late summer stress periods should be irrigated to prevent peat fires. The intrusion of eco-corridors to the land cover pattern in the catchment is positive from ecological perspective, but could prevent drainage causing water logging in the arable lands.

  1. Studies in Solid Phase Peptide Synthesis: A Personal Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitchell, A R

    2007-06-01

    By the early 1970s it had became apparent that the solid phase synthesis of ribonuclease A could not be generalized. Consequently, virtually every aspect of solid phase peptide synthesis (SPPS) was reexamined and improved during the decade of the 1970s. The sensitive detection and elimination of possible side reactions (amino acid insertion, N{sup {alpha}}-trifluoroacetylation, N{sup {alpha}{var_epsilon}}-alkylation) was examined. The quantitation of coupling efficiency in SPPS as a function of chain length was studied. A new and improved support for SPPS, the 'PAM-resin', was prepared and evaluated. These and many other studies from the Merrifield laboratory and elsewhere increased the general acceptance of SPPS leading to the 1984 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for Bruce Merrifield.

  2. The Western Wind and Solar Integration Study Phase 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lew, Debra [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brinkman, Greg [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ibanez, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heaney, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, B. -M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hummon, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Stark, G. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); King, J. [RePPAE; Lefton, S. A. [Intertek-APTECH, Houston, TX (United States); Kumar, N. [Intertek-APTECH, Houston, TX (United States); Agan, D. [Intertek-APTECH, Houston, TX (United States); Jordan, G. [GE Energy, Fairfield, CT (United States); Venkataraman, S. [GE Energy, Fairfield, CT (United States)

    2013-09-01

    The electric grid is a highly complex, interconnected machine, and changing one part of the grid can have consequences elsewhere. Adding wind and solar affects the operation of the other power plants and adding high penetrations can induce cycling of fossil-fueled generators. Cycling leads to wear-and-tear costs and changes in emissions. Phase 2 of the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS-2) evaluated these costs and emissions and simulated grid operations for a year to investigate the detailed impact of wind and solar on the fossil-fueled fleet. This built on Phase 1, one of the largest wind and solar integration studies ever conducted, which examined operational impacts of high wind and solar penetrations in the West(GE Energy 2010).

  3. The Western Wind and Solar Integration Study Phase 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lew, D.; Brinkman, G.; Ibanez, E.; Hodge, B. M.; Hummon, M.; Florita, A.; Heaney, M.

    2013-09-01

    The electric grid is a highly complex, interconnected machine, and changing one part of the grid can have consequences elsewhere. Adding wind and solar affects the operation of the other power plants and adding high penetrations can induce cycling of fossil-fueled generators. Cycling leads to wear-and-tear costs and changes in emissions. Phase 2 of the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS-2) evaluated these costs and emissions and simulated grid operations for a year to investigate the detailed impact of wind and solar on the fossil-fueled fleet. This built on Phase 1, one of the largest wind and solar integration studies ever conducted, which examined operational impacts of high wind and solar penetrations in the West.

  4. Visualization in cryogenic environment: Application to two-phase studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousset, Bernard; Chatain, Denis; Puech, Laurent; Thibault, Pierre; Viargues, François; Wolf, Pierre-Etienne

    2009-10-01

    This paper reviews recent technical developments devoted to the study of cryogenic two-phase fluids. These techniques span from simple flow visualization to quantitative measurements of light scattering. It is shown that simple flow pattern configurations are obtained using classical optical tools (CCD cameras, endoscopes), even in most severe environments (high vacuum, high magnetic field). Quantitative measurements include laser velocimetry, particle sizing, and light scattering analysis. In the case of magnetically compensated gravity boiling oxygen, optical access is used to control the poistioning of a bubble subject to buoyancy forces in an experimental cell. Flow visualization on a two-phase superfluid helium pipe-flow, performed as a support of LHC cooldown studies, leads to flow pattern characterization. Visualization includes stratified and atomized flows. Thanks to the low refractive index contrast between the liquid and its vapor, quantitative results on droplet densities can be obtained even in a multiple scattering regime.

  5. Study of large nonlinear change phase in Hibiscus Sabdariffa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trejo-Durán, M.; Alvarado-Méndez, E.; Andrade-Lucio, J. A.; Rojas-Laguna, R.; Vázquez-Guevara, M. A.

    2015-09-01

    High intensities electromagnetic energy interacting with organic media gives rise to nonlinear optical effects. Hibiscus Sabdariffa is a flower whose concentrated solution presents interesting nonlinear optical properties. This organic material shows an important self-phase modulation with changes bigger than 2π. We present a diffraction ring patterns study of the Hibiscus Sabdariffa solution. Numerical results of transmittance, with refraction and simultaneous absorption, are shown.

  6. Thermodynamic study of phase transitions of imidazoles and 1-methylimidazoles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almeida, Ana R.R.P.; Monte, Manuel J.S.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: → Sublimation vapor pressures of imidazole, N-methylimidazole and four derivatives were measured. → Liquid vapor pressures were also measured for four of the compounds studied. → Vapor pressure results enabled determination of sublimation, vaporization, and fusion enthalpy. → From enthalpies of sublimation, enthalpies of intermolecular N-H...N bonds were estimated. - Abstract: The vapor pressures of imidazole, N-methylimidazole and of their dichloro and dicyano substituted compounds were measured at different temperatures, in the crystalline phase for two of them, and in crystalline and liquid phases for the other four. From these measurements, enthalpies and standard entropies of sublimation and vaporization were derived. The results allowed the determination of the triple points (p, T) coordinates of the four compounds studied in both condensed phases as well as the calculation of their enthalpy of fusion. Enthalpies and temperatures of fusion were also determined using d.s.c. The experimental results enabled the estimation of the enthalpy of the intermolecular N-H...N bonds in the imidazoles studied.

  7. Solar central receiver hybrid power system. Phase I study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1978-11-01

    A management plan is presented for implementation during the Solar Central Receiver Hybrid Power System - Phase I study project. The project plan and the management controls that will be used to assure technically adequate, timely and cost effective performance of the work required to prepare the designated end products are described. Bechtel in-house controls and those to be used in directing the subcontractors are described. Phase I of the project consists of tradeoff studies, parametric analyses, and engineering studies leading to conceptual definition and evaluation of a commercial hybrid power system that has the potential for supplying economically competitive electric power to a utility grid in the 1985-1990 time frame. The scope also includes the preparation of a development plan for the resolution of technical uncertainties and the preparation of plans and a proposal for Phase II of the program. The technical approach will be based on a central receiver solar energy collection scheme which supplies thermal energy to a combined cycle, generating system, consisting of a gas turbine cycle combined with a steam bottoming cycle by means of a heat recovery steam generator.

  8. Thermodynamic study of phase transitions of imidazoles and 1-methylimidazoles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almeida, Ana R.R.P., E-mail: ana.figueira@fc.up.pt [Centro de Investigacao em Quimica, Departamento de Quimica e Bioquimica, Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade do Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre, 687, P-4169-007 Porto (Portugal); Monte, Manuel J.S., E-mail: mjmonte@fc.up.pt [Centro de Investigacao em Quimica, Departamento de Quimica e Bioquimica, Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade do Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre, 687, P-4169-007 Porto (Portugal)

    2012-01-15

    Highlights: > Sublimation vapor pressures of imidazole, N-methylimidazole and four derivatives were measured. > Liquid vapor pressures were also measured for four of the compounds studied. > Vapor pressure results enabled determination of sublimation, vaporization, and fusion enthalpy. > From enthalpies of sublimation, enthalpies of intermolecular N-H...N bonds were estimated. - Abstract: The vapor pressures of imidazole, N-methylimidazole and of their dichloro and dicyano substituted compounds were measured at different temperatures, in the crystalline phase for two of them, and in crystalline and liquid phases for the other four. From these measurements, enthalpies and standard entropies of sublimation and vaporization were derived. The results allowed the determination of the triple points (p, T) coordinates of the four compounds studied in both condensed phases as well as the calculation of their enthalpy of fusion. Enthalpies and temperatures of fusion were also determined using d.s.c. The experimental results enabled the estimation of the enthalpy of the intermolecular N-H...N bonds in the imidazoles studied.

  9. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  10. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  11. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  12. HyRA: A Hybrid Recommendation Algorithm Focused on Smart POI. Ceutí as a Study Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanna Alvarado-Uribe

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, Physical Web together with the increase in the use of mobile devices, Global Positioning System (GPS, and Social Networking Sites (SNS have caused users to share enriched information on the Web such as their tourist experiences. Therefore, an area that has been significantly improved by using the contextual information provided by these technologies is tourism. In this way, the main goals of this work are to propose and develop an algorithm focused on the recommendation of Smart Point of Interaction (Smart POI for a specific user according to his/her preferences and the Smart POIs’ context. Hence, a novel Hybrid Recommendation Algorithm (HyRA is presented by incorporating an aggregation operator into the user-based Collaborative Filtering (CF algorithm as well as including the Smart POIs’ categories and geographical information. For the experimental phase, two real-world datasets have been collected and preprocessed. In addition, one Smart POIs’ categories dataset was built. As a result, a dataset composed of 16 Smart POIs, another constituted by the explicit preferences of 200 respondents, and the last dataset integrated by 13 Smart POIs’ categories are provided. The experimental results show that the recommendations suggested by HyRA are promising.

  13. HyRA: A Hybrid Recommendation Algorithm Focused on Smart POI. Ceutí as a Study Scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarado-Uribe, Joanna; Gómez-Oliva, Andrea; Barrera-Animas, Ari Yair; Molina, Germán; Gonzalez-Mendoza, Miguel; Parra-Meroño, María Concepción; Jara, Antonio J

    2018-03-17

    Nowadays, Physical Web together with the increase in the use of mobile devices, Global Positioning System (GPS), and Social Networking Sites (SNS) have caused users to share enriched information on the Web such as their tourist experiences. Therefore, an area that has been significantly improved by using the contextual information provided by these technologies is tourism. In this way, the main goals of this work are to propose and develop an algorithm focused on the recommendation of Smart Point of Interaction (Smart POI) for a specific user according to his/her preferences and the Smart POIs' context. Hence, a novel Hybrid Recommendation Algorithm (HyRA) is presented by incorporating an aggregation operator into the user-based Collaborative Filtering (CF) algorithm as well as including the Smart POIs' categories and geographical information. For the experimental phase, two real-world datasets have been collected and preprocessed. In addition, one Smart POIs' categories dataset was built. As a result, a dataset composed of 16 Smart POIs, another constituted by the explicit preferences of 200 respondents, and the last dataset integrated by 13 Smart POIs' categories are provided. The experimental results show that the recommendations suggested by HyRA are promising.

  14. HyRA: A Hybrid Recommendation Algorithm Focused on Smart POI. Ceutí as a Study Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Oliva, Andrea; Molina, Germán

    2018-01-01

    Nowadays, Physical Web together with the increase in the use of mobile devices, Global Positioning System (GPS), and Social Networking Sites (SNS) have caused users to share enriched information on the Web such as their tourist experiences. Therefore, an area that has been significantly improved by using the contextual information provided by these technologies is tourism. In this way, the main goals of this work are to propose and develop an algorithm focused on the recommendation of Smart Point of Interaction (Smart POI) for a specific user according to his/her preferences and the Smart POIs’ context. Hence, a novel Hybrid Recommendation Algorithm (HyRA) is presented by incorporating an aggregation operator into the user-based Collaborative Filtering (CF) algorithm as well as including the Smart POIs’ categories and geographical information. For the experimental phase, two real-world datasets have been collected and preprocessed. In addition, one Smart POIs’ categories dataset was built. As a result, a dataset composed of 16 Smart POIs, another constituted by the explicit preferences of 200 respondents, and the last dataset integrated by 13 Smart POIs’ categories are provided. The experimental results show that the recommendations suggested by HyRA are promising. PMID:29562590

  15. Mise en Scene: Conversion of Scenarios to CSP Traces for the Requirements-to-Design-to-Code Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter. John D.; Gardner, William B.; Rash, James L.; Hinchey, Michael G.

    2007-01-01

    The "Requirements-to-Design-to-Code" (R2D2C) project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center is based on deriving a formal specification expressed in Communicating Sequential Processes (CSP) notation from system requirements supplied in the form of CSP traces. The traces, in turn, are to be extracted from scenarios, a user-friendly medium often used to describe the required behavior of computer systems under development. This work, called Mise en Scene, defines a new scenario medium (Scenario Notation Language, SNL) suitable for control-dominated systems, coupled with a two-stage process for automatic translation of scenarios to a new trace medium (Trace Notation Language, TNL) that encompasses CSP traces. Mise en Scene is offered as an initial solution to the problem of the scenarios-to-traces "D2" phase of R2D2C. A survey of the "scenario" concept and some case studies are also provided.

  16. Update of energy performance certificates in the residential sector and scenarios that consider the impact of automation, control and management systems: A case study of La Rioja

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    López-González, Luis M.; López-Ochoa, Luis M.; Las-Heras-Casas, Jesús; García-Lozano, César

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A total of 9416 energy performance certificates in the residential sector were analyzed. • Approximately 40% of the energy performance certificates were incorrect. • The developed algorithms can be generalized for the remainder of Spain. • Introducing BACS and TBM systems can reduce building energy consumption by up to 26.36%. - Abstract: Energy performance certificates are considered to be tools for knowledge and energy planning in the residential sector. Although energy performance certificates describe primary energy consumption and the associated emissions of a home or building, they do not consider the influence of building automation control systems (BACS) or technical building management (TBM) systems on these parameters. The European Standard EN 15232 remedies this shortcoming and evaluates the savings in primary energy and the reduction of CO_2 emissions that can be achieved by these systems. This study investigates the energy performance certificates registered in the Autonomous Community of La Rioja and considers the policy changes in the Technical Building Code (Código Técnico de la Edificación) and, specifically, the Basic Document for Energy Saving (Documento Básico de Ahorro de Energía) (CTE-DB-HE). Due to this regulatory change, we corrected the certificates and outlined different scenarios based on the implementation of these systems in this study. These scenarios show the potential distribution of energy performance certificates and the improvements in the ratings obtained.

  17. EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS OF THE NEPHELINE PHASE III STUDY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fox, K.; Edwards, T.

    2009-11-09

    This study is the third phase in a series of experiments designed to reduce conservatism in the model that predicts the formation of nepheline, a crystalline phase that can reduce the durability of high level waste glass. A Phase I study developed a series of glass compositions that were very durable while their nepheline discriminator values were well below the current nepheline discriminator limit of 0.62, where nepheline is predicted to crystallize upon slow cooling. A Phase II study selected glass compositions to identify any linear effects of composition on nepheline crystallization and that were restricted to regions that fell within the validation ranges of the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) Product Composition Control System (PCCS) models. However, it was not possible to identify any linear effects of composition on chemical durability performance for this set of study glasses. The results of the Phase II study alone were not sufficient to recommend modification of the current nepheline discriminator. It was recommended that the next series of experiments continue to focus not only on compositional regions where the PCCS models are considered applicable (i.e., the model validation ranges), but also be restricted to compositional regions where the only constraint limiting processing is the current nepheline discriminator. Two methods were used in selecting glasses for this Phase III nepheline study. The first was based on the relationship of the current nepheline discriminator model to the other DWPF PCCS models, and the second was based on theory of crystallization in mineral and glass melts. A series of 29 test glass compositions was selected for this study using a combination of the two approaches. The glasses were fabricated and characterized in the laboratory. After reviewing the data, the study glasses generally met the target compositions with little issue. Product Consistency Test results correlated well with the crystallization analyses in

  18. Study of 18-Pulse Rectifier Utilizing Hexagon Connected 3-Phase to 9-Phase Transformer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Saudi Samosir

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The 18-pulse converter, using Y or -connected differential autotransformer, is very interesting since it allows natural high power factor correction. The lowest input current harmonic components are the 17th and 19th. The Transformer is designed to feed three six-pulse bridge rectifiers displaced in phase by 200. This paper present a high power factor three-phase rectifier bases on 3-phase to 9-phase transformer and 18-pulse rectifier. The 9-phase polygon-connected transformer followed by 18-pulse diode rectifiers ensures the fundamental concept of natural power factor correction. Simulation results to verify the proposed concept are shown in this paper.

  19. Dynamic Studies of Lung Fluid Clearance with Phase Contrast Imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitchen, Marcus J.; Williams, Ivan; Irvine, Sarah C.; Morgan, Michael J.; Paganin, David M.; Lewis, Rob A.; Pavlov, Konstantin; Hooper, Stuart B.; Wallace, Megan J.; Siu, Karen K. W.; Yagi, Naoto; Uesugi, Kentaro

    2007-01-01

    Clearance of liquid from the airways at birth is a poorly understood process, partly due to the difficulties of observing and measuring the distribution of air within the lung. Imaging dynamic processes within the lung in vivo with high contrast and spatial resolution is therefore a major challenge. However, phase contrast X-ray imaging is able to exploit inhaled air as a contrast agent, rendering the lungs of small animals visible due to the large changes in the refractive index at air/tissue interfaces. In concert with the high spatial resolution afforded by X-ray imaging systems (<100 μm), propagation-based phase contrast imaging is ideal for studying lung development. To this end we have utilized intense, monochromatic synchrotron radiation, together with a fast readout CCD camera, to study fluid clearance from the lungs of rabbit pups at birth. Local rates of fluid clearance have been measured from the dynamic sequences using a single image phase retrieval algorithm

  20. Study of a new static mixer for two-phase and single-phase flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foucrier, Michel

    1996-01-01

    The subject of this work is the study of OptimiX, a new static mixer, which is fully designed using an inverse method taking the final product features as input and based on the physical properties of the fluid to mix. The work began with the construction of an experimental loop which allowed us to qualify the mixer in two-phase and single-phase flow conditions. Next, a chemical method using a new test reaction and a micro-mixing model have been used to further characterise the mixer. This test reaction and the micro-mixing model have been developed by the 'Laboratoire des Sciences du Genie Chimique' of Nancy. The mixer OptimiX has proved to be an excellent device for both macro- and micro-mixing. The capability of this mixer to foster rapid reactions was also demonstrated. The well organised flow pattern of OptimiX, which results from its design, provides it with the unusual feature of being fully calculable. This work emphasizes the internal hydrodynamics of this mixer, justifies the universality of the design procedures, which validation is supported by the completed qualification work. (author) [fr

  1. Study of the GERDA Phase II background spectrum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agostini, M.; Allardt, M.; Bakalyarov, A. M.; Balata, M.; Barabanov, I.; Baudis, L.; Bauer, C.; Bellotti, E.; Belogurov, S.; Belyaev, S. T.; Benato, G.; Bettini, A.; Bezrukov, L.; Bode, T.; Borowicz, D.; Brudanin, V.; Brugnera, R.; Caldwell, A.; Cattadori, C.; Chernogorov, A.; D'Andrea, V.; Demidova, E. V.; Di Marco, N.; Domula, A.; Doroshkevich, E.; Egorov, V.; Falkenstein, R.; Frodyma, N.; Gangapshev, A.; Garfagnini, A.; Gooch, C.; Grabmayr, P.; Gurentsov, V.; Gusev, K.; Hakenmüller, J.; Hegai, A.; Heisel, M.; Hemmer, S.; Hofmann, W.; Hult, M.; Inzhechik, L. V.; Janicskó Csáthy, J.; Jochum, J.; Junker, M.; Kazalov, V.; Kihm, T.; Kirpichnikov, I. V.; Kirsch, A.; Kish, A.; Klimenko, A.; Kneißl, R.; Knöpfle, K. T.; Kochetov, O.; Kornoukhov, V. N.; Kuzminov, V. V.; Laubenstein, M.; Lazzaro, A.; Lebedev, V. I.; Lehnert, B.; Liao, H. Y.; Lindner, M.; Lippi, I.; Lubashevskiy, A.; Lubsandorzhiev, B.; Lutter, G.; Macolino, C.; Majorovits, B.; Maneschg, W.; Medinaceli, E.; Miloradovic, M.; Mingazheva, R.; Misiaszek, M.; Moseev, P.; Nemchenok, I.; Palioselitis, D.; Panas, K.; Pandola, L.; Pelczar, K.; Pullia, A.; Riboldi, S.; Rumyantseva, N.; Sada, C.; Salamida, F.; Salathe, M.; Schmitt, C.; Schneider, B.; Schönert, S.; Schreiner, J.; Schulz, O.; Schütz, A.-K.; Schwingenheuer, B.; Selivanenko, O.; Shevzik, E.; Shirchenko, M.; Simgen, H.; Smolnikov, A.; Stanco, L.; Vanhoefer, L.; Vasenko, A. A.; Veresnikova, A.; von Sturm, K.; Wagner, V.; Wegmann, A.; Wester, T.; Wiesinger, C.; Wojcik, M.; Yanovich, E.; Zhitnikov, I.; Zhukov, S. V.; Zinatulina, D.; Zuber, K.; Zuzel, G.

    2017-09-01

    The Gerda experiment, located at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso (LNGS) of INFN in Italy, searches for the neutrinoless double beta (0νββ) decay of 76Ge. Gerda Phase II is aiming to reach a sensitivity for the 0νββ half life of 1026 yr in ˜ 3 years of physics data taking with 100 kg·yr of exposure and a background index of ˜ 10-3 cts/(keV·kg·yr). After 6 months of acquisition a first data release with 10.8 kg·yr of exposure is performed, showing that the design background is achieved. In this work a study of the Phase II background spectrum, the main spectral structures and the background sources will be presented and discussed.

  2. Environmental impact assessment and monetary ecosystem service valuation of an ecosystem under different future environmental change and management scenarios; a case study of a Scots pine forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaubroeck, Thomas; Deckmyn, Gaby; Giot, Olivier; Campioli, Matteo; Vanpoucke, Charlotte; Verheyen, Kris; Rugani, Benedetto; Achten, Wouter; Verbeeck, Hans; Dewulf, Jo; Muys, Bart

    2016-05-15

    For a sustainable future, we must sustainably manage not only the human/industrial system but also ecosystems. To achieve the latter goal, we need to predict the responses of ecosystems and their provided services to management practices under changing environmental conditions via ecosystem models and use tools to compare the estimated provided services between the different scenarios. However, scientific articles have covered a limited amount of estimated ecosystem services and have used tools to aggregate services that contain a significant amount of subjective aspects and that represent the final result in a non-tangible unit such as 'points'. To resolve these matters, this study quantifies the environmental impact (on human health, natural systems and natural resources) in physical units and uses an ecosystem service valuation based on monetary values (including ecosystem disservices with associated negative monetary values). More specifically, the paper also focuses on the assessment of ecosystem services related to pollutant removal/generation flows, accounting for the inflow of eutrophying nitrogen (N) when assessing the effect of N leached to groundwater. Regarding water use/provisioning, evapotranspiration is alternatively considered a disservice because it implies a loss of (potential) groundwater. These approaches and improvements, relevant to all ecosystems, are demonstrated using a Scots pine stand from 2010 to 2089 for a combination of three environmental change and three management scenarios. The environmental change scenarios considered interannual climate variability trends and included alterations in temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, wind speed, Particulate matter (PM) concentration and CO2 concentration. The addressed flows/ecosystem services, including disservices, are as follows: particulate matter removal, freshwater loss, CO2 sequestration, wood production, NOx emissions, NH3 uptake and nitrogen pollution/removal. The monetary

  3. Binary population synthesis study of the supersoft X-ray phase of single degenerate type Ia supernova progenitors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng Xiangcun; Yang Wuming

    2011-01-01

    In the single degenerate (SD) scenario for type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), a mass-accreting white dwarf is expected to experience a supersoft X-ray source (SSS) phase. However, some recent observations showed that the expected number of mass-accreting WDs is much lower than that predicted from theory, regardless of whether they are in spiral or elliptical galaxies. In this paper, we performed a binary population synthesis study on the relative duration of the SSS phase to their whole mass-increasing phase of WDs leading to SNe Ia. We found that for about 40% of the progenitor systems, the relative duration is shorter than 2% and the evolution of the mean relative duration shows that it is always smaller than 5%, both for young and old SNe Ia. In addition, before the SNe Ia explosions, more than 55% of the progenitor systems were experiencing a dwarf novae phase and no more than 10% were staying in the SSS phase. These results are consistent with the recent observations and imply that both in early- and late-type galaxies, only a small fraction of mass-accreting WDs resulting in SNe Ia contributes to the supersoft X-ray flux. So, although our results are not directly related to the X-ray output of the SN Ia progenitor, the low supersoft X-ray luminosity observed in early type galaxies may not be able to exclude the validity of the SD model. On the contrary, it is evidence to support the SD scenario.

  4. New numerical method to study phase transitions and its applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jooyoung; Kosterlitz, J.M.

    1991-11-01

    We present a powerful method of identifying the nature of transitions by numerical simulation of finite systems. By studying the finite size scaling properties of free energy barrier between competing states, we can identify unambiguously a weak first order transition even when accessible system sizes are L/ξ < 0.05 as in the five state Potts model in two dimensions. When studying a continuous phase transition we obtain quite accurate estimates of critical exponents by treating it as a field driven first order transition. The method has been successfully applied to various systems

  5. Main results of the German risk study - phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heuser, F.W.

    1987-01-01

    To start the author introduces briefly some comments on main tasks and objectives of risk analysises which at least after the Chernobyl accident should be emphasized more explicitly. Following on some main results of the system - and accident event tree analysis of the German Risk Study, Phase B, are summarized. The second part of this paper deals with the analysis of core melt accidents performed in context of the study. Hetero investigations on the hydrogen problem and investigations on containment venting after a core melt accident will be discussed in more detail

  6. Emergency exercise scenario tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeblom, K.

    1998-03-01

    Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

  7. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  8. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA. Health Doctor / Hospital Infant expenditure 1000 beds / 1000 mortality / % GDP 1000. India 0.8 0.47 0.8 71. World 2.6 1.5 3.3 54. Developed 6.1 2.8 7.2 6 Countries.

  9. An economically reliable scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Mister Benjamin Dessus, director of the Ecotech programme at the Cnrs and author of the Noe scenario, describes his propositions for energy prospective, supported by an economic analysis. He advocates the energy diversification and the use of renewable energies. (N.C.). 1 ref., 1 tab

  10. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  11. Comparison of scenarios for the integrated management of construction and demolition waste by life cycle assessment: A case study in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penteado, Carmenlucia Santos Giordano; Rosado, Laís Peixoto

    2016-10-01

    Brazil, as a result of economic development and strengthening of the construction industry in recent years, is generating an increasing amount of construction and demolition waste (CDW). Hence, environmental assessment of the management systems is vital. A life cycle assessment (LCA) is presented of CDW management in a medium-sized municipality located in the southeast region of Brazil, where the impacts of leaching were not considered due to absence of consistent data. Six different proposed scenarios for the current CDW management situation have been considered. These scenarios comprised the combined use of landfilling, sorting, and recycling, and the use of CDW as paving material for landfill roads, in different percentages. Considering 0.8 ton of waste as the functional unit, the life cycle inventory was performed using primary data obtained from field survey and secondary data from the database Ecoinvent version 3.1, and from the literature. The method CML 2 baseline 2001 was used for environmental impacts evaluation. The results highlight that recycling is beneficial when efficient CDW sorting takes place at construction sites, avoiding the transport of refuse to sorting and recycling facilities, and the distance between the generation source and the recycling unit is within 30 km. Thus, our results are helpful to ensure that the decision-making processes are based on environmental and technical aspects, and not only on economic and political factors, and also provide data and support for other LCA studies on CDW. © The Author(s) 2016.

  12. TWRS privatization phase 1 monitoring wells engineering study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, B.A.; Newcomer, D.R.

    1998-04-01

    This engineering study provides an evaluation of existing wells and boreholes (wells) within the proposed location for the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Privatization Phase 1 demonstration site. Phase 1 is part of the TWRS program that was established to manage, retrieve, treat, immobilize, and dispose of high-level waste stored in underground tanks at the Hanford Site. This evaluation is to determine which wells will remain active within the demonstration site based on regulatory, programmatic, or other beneficial use requirements. An initial evaluation of wells within the demonstration site was conducted in 1996. However, changes in construction plans and expansion of the demonstration site necessitated a reevaluation and reclassification of the wells that are within the expanded site. Impacted wells include many of those previously evaluated as well as additional wells identified in or near the expansion areas. Thirty-three wells exist within and immediately adjacent to the identified boundary of the proposed demonstration site. The wells identified for decommissioning will be abandoned according to the well decommissioning plan. Future well requirements within the site include replacement wells for those wells impacted by construction activities, replacements for Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) wells going dry, and a new characterization well installed to support a TWRS Phase 2 site assessment

  13. Analytical study of solids-gas two phase flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosaka, Minoru

    1977-01-01

    Fundamental studies were made on the hydrodynamics of solids-gas two-phase suspension flow, in which very small solid particles are mixed in a gas flow to enhance the heat transfer characteristics of gas cooled high temperature reactors. Especially, the pressure drop due to friction and the density distribution of solid particles are theoretically analyzed. The friction pressure drop of two-phase flow was analyzed based on the analytical result of the single-phase friction pressure drop. The calculated values of solid/gas friction factor as a function of solid/gas mass loading are compared with experimental results. Comparisons are made for Various combinations of Reynolds number and particle size. As for the particle density distribution, some factors affecting the non-uniformity of distribution were considered. The minimum of energy dispersion was obtained with the variational principle. The suspension density of particles was obtained as a function of relative distance from wall and was compared with experimental results. It is concluded that the distribution is much affected by the particle size and that the smaller particles are apt to gather near the wall. (Aoki, K.)

  14. Numerical study of glare spot phase Doppler anemometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hespel, C.; Ren, K. F.; Gréhan, G.; Onofri, F.

    2008-03-01

    The phase Doppler anemometry has (PDA) been developed to measure simultaneously the velocity and the size of droplets. When the concentration of particles is high, tightly focused beams must be used, as in the dual burst PDA. The latter permits an access to the refractive index of the particle, but the effect of wave front curvature of the incident beams becomes evident. In this paper, we introduce a glare spot phase Doppler anemometry which uses two large beams. The images of the particle formed by the reflected and refracted light, known as glare spots, are separated in space. When a particle passes through the probe volume, the two parts in a signal obtained by a detector in forward direction are then separated in time. If two detectors are used the phase differences and the intensity ratios between two signals, the distance between the reflected and refracted spots can be obtained. These measured values provide information about the particle diameter and its refractive index, as well as its two velocity components. This paper is devoted to the numerical study of such a configuration with two theoretical models: geometrical optics and rigorous electromagnetism solution.

  15. Study of Sigma Phase in Duplex SAF 2507

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fellicia, D. M.; Sutarsis; Kurniawan, B. A.; Wulanari, D.; Purniawan, A.; Wibisono, A. T.

    2017-05-01

    Super duplex stainless steel is one of the stainless steel which has a combination between high strength properties and excellent corrosion resistance. However, the resistance can decrease by precipitation of sigma phase which is formed at high temperature, for example after welding processes. A series of experiments has been performed to study the effect of solution annealing to existence of sigma phase on super duplex SAF 2507. Variations of solution-annealing temperatures were 1000 °C, 1065 °C and 1125 °C with holding time of 15 and 30 minutes for each temperature. Effect of solution annealing process was characterized by using XRD, SEM, and Optical Microscopy. The result showed precipitation of sigma phase completely dissolved at 1065 °C and 1125 °C because it reformed to austenite. After it was heated at 1065 °C, chromium carbide appeared in ferrite site and grain boundary. The amount of chromium carbide increased with the increasing of solution annealing temperature.

  16. Phase equilibria and molecular interaction studies on (naphthols + vanillin) systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Preeti; Agrawal, Tanvi; Das, Shiva Saran; Singh, Nakshatra Bahadur

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Phase equilibria of (naphthol + vanillin) systems have been studied for the first time. ► Eutectic type phase diagrams are obtained. ► Eutectic mixtures show nonideal behaviour. ► There is a weak molecular interaction between the components in the eutectic mixtures. ► α-Naphthol–vanillin eutectic is more stable as compared to β-naphthol–vanillin. - Abstract: Phase equilibria between (α-naphthol + vanillin) and (β-naphthol + vanillin) systems have been studied by thaw-melt method and the results show the formation of simple eutectic mixtures. Crystallization velocities of components and eutectic mixtures were determined at different stages under cooling. With the help of differential scanning calorimeter (DSC), the enthalpy of fusion of components and eutectic mixtures was determined and from the values excess thermodynamic functions viz., excess Gibbs free energy (G E ), excess entropy (S E ), excess enthalpy (H E ) of hypo-, hyper- and eutectic mixtures were calculated. Flexural strength measurements were made in order to understand the non-ideal nature of eutectics. FT-IR spectral studies indicate the formation of hydrogen bond in the eutectic mixture. Anisotropic and isotropic microstructural studies of components, hypo-, hyper- and eutectic mixtures were made. Jackson’s roughness parameter was calculated and found to be greater than 2 suggesting the faceted morphology with irregular structures. The overall results have shown that there is a weak molecular interaction between the components in the eutectic mixtures and the (α-naphthol + vanillin) eutectic is more stable as compared to the (β-naphthol + vanillin) eutectic system.

  17. Feasible study of international cooperation on the long-term scenario for reducing CO2. DNE-21 simulation database; CO2 sakugen ni kakawaru choki scenario ni kansuru kokusai kyoryoku kanosei chosa. DNE21 simulation database

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-03-01

    This report describes calculation codes of DNE-21 which can simulate the optimization model for reducing CO2. The DNE-21 was modified from the former NE-21. The term was set between 2000 and 2100. Optimization can be conducted across the different time. Non-conventional petroleum was removed from the primary energy. Capacity of nuclear power generation facilities was taken in the model for the optimization. Decision making analysis can be done by considering the uncertainty. The DNE-21 has eleven input files including the model operation, technical property related data, cost related data, data of tax, subsidy and customs, and scenario data of future energy demand and supply, GNP, population and nuclear power. The DNE-21 has fifteen output files including the optimization calculation results for the world, Oceania, the Middle East, North Africa, Central America, South America, former USSR, and OECD countries. 2 figs.

  18. The Local Value Chain of Hunted Red Deer Meat: A Scenario Analysis Based on a Northern Italian Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Gaviglio

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Although in recent decades, meat from hunted wild ungulates has shown interesting results in terms of market opportunities, the scientific literature is still lacking in economic studies concerning the estimation of the meat’s value for involved stakeholders. We present an analysis of the evolution of price in the local red deer meat supply chain. This analysis has been conducted through a survey based on in-depth interviews with the stakeholders involved in an Italian local supply chain. Findings derived from this study describe a case study, however, they also represent the potential dynamics of the value of Italian game meat, highlighting that the development of a sustainable local supply chain of this product may represent an economic resource for involved stakeholders.

  19. Study on safety analysis of VVER-1200/V491 in scenario of Loss of Coolant Accidents along with partly failure of ECCS using RELAP5 code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoang Minh Giang; Ha Thi Anh Dao; Hoang Tan Hung; Bui Thi Hoa; Nguyen Thi Tu Oanh; Dinh Anh Tuan; Pham Tuan Nam

    2017-01-01

    The advanced VVER-1200/V491 reactor designed with passive safety systems to deal with design extension conditions is primarily selected as priority candidate for Ninh Thuan 1 nuclear power plant project. So that, in order to enhance competence of nuclear safety and toward participation on review Safety Analysis Report (SAR) of Ninh Thuan nuclear Power project the study on safety analysis of VVER-1200/V491 in scenario of Loss of Coolant Accidents along with partly failure of ECCS is implemented. As requirement of the study, the input deck file of VVER-1200/V491 for RELAP5 and analysis report for some special case of LOCAs along with partly failure of ECCS are issued. (author)

  20. Dungeness Crab Dredging Entrainment Studies in the Lower Columbia River, 2002 – 2004: Loss Projections, Salinity Model, and Scenario Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pearson, Walter H.; Williams, Greg D.; Skalski, John R.

    2005-01-01

    Dungeness crab studies conducted in 2002 for the Portland District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) constituted a major step forward in quantifying crab entrainment through statistical projections of adult equivalent loss (AEL) and loss to the fishery (LF) from proposed construction and maintenance dredging in the Columbia River navigation channel (Pearson et al. 2002, 2003). These studies also examined the influence of bottom salinity on crab abundance and entrainment rates. Additional sampling was conducted in 2004 to tighten loss projections, further develop the crab salinity model, and apply the model to assess correlations of entrainment rates and projected losses with seasonal salinity changes.

  1. Comparing long term energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

    2001-01-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

  2. Lifestyle changes and reduction of colon cancer incidence in Europe : A scenario study of physical activity promotion and weight reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, E.; Soerjomataram, I.; Lemmens, V. E. P. P.; Coebergh, J. W. W.; Barendregt, J. J.; Oenema, A.; Moller, H.; Brenner, H.; Renehan, Andrew G.

    Background: Across Europe, there are over 300,000 new cases of colorectal cancer annually. Major risk factors include excess body weight (usually expressed by a high body mass index, BMI) and physical inactivity (PA). In this study we modelled the potential long-term effects on colon cancer

  3. Costs of cardiovascular disease prevention care and scenarios for cost saving: a micro-costing study from rural Nigeria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendriks, Marleen E.; Bolarinwa, Oladimeji A.; Nelissen, Heleen E.; Boers, Alexander C.; Gomez, Gabriela B.; Tan, Siok Swan; Redekop, William; Adenusi, Peju; Lange, Joep M. A.; Agbede, Kayode; Akande, Tanimola M.; Schultsz, Constance

    2015-01-01

    To assess the costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention care according to international guidelines, in a primary healthcare clinic in rural Nigeria, participating in a health insurance programme. A micro-costing study was conducted from a healthcare provider perspective. Activities per

  4. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M

    2009-01-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  5. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  6. Front Range Forest Health Partnership Phase 1 feasibility study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Volkin, P

    1998-09-01

    The Front Range Forest Health Partnership is an alliance of individuals, citizen groups, federal, state, private, and nonprofit organizations that formed to promote forest health restoration and reduce fire risks on Colorado's Front Range. The partnership promotes selective thinning to restore forest health and supports economically feasible end uses for wood waste materials. The Phase I study was initiated to determine the environmental and economic feasibility of using wood wastes from forested and urban areas for the production of fuel-grade ethanol.

  7. ATCA - thermal management study for the ATLAS phase II upgrades

    CERN Document Server

    Bortolin, Claudio; Kalinowski, Michal; Koziol, Piotr; Mendez, Julian; Walerianczyk, Jan; Zwalinski, Lukasz

    2017-01-01

    The AdvancedTCA (ATCA) telecom industry standard has been selected as the hardware platform for the “Phase-II Upgrade” of ATLAS at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. In November 2014 a project dedicated to the study of the impact of the ATCA integration in the actual counting rooms was launched analysing the impact on the cooling infrastructures. A spare rack equipped with two ATCA shelves, high power dissipating load blades, temperature and air velocity sensors were installed in a lab. Vertical and horizontal cooling performance were checked and some crtitical aspects identified.

  8. A study of critical two-phase flow models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siikonen, T.

    1982-01-01

    The existing computer codes use different boundary conditions in the calculation of critical two-phase flow. In the present study these boundary conditions are compared. It is shown that the boundary condition should be determined from the hydraulic model used in the computer code. The use of a correlation, which is not based on the hydraulic model used, leads often to bad results. Usually a good agreement with data is obtained in the calculation as far as the critical mass flux is concerned, but the agreement is not so good in the pressure profiles. The reason is suggested to be mainly in inadequate modeling of non-equilibrium effects. (orig.)

  9. ATCA - thermal management study for the ATLAS phase II upgrades

    OpenAIRE

    Bortolin, Claudio; Dyngosz, Damian; Kalinowski, Michal; Koziol, Piotr; Mendez, Julian; Walerianczyk, Jan; Zwalinski, Lukasz

    2017-01-01

    The AdvancedTCA (ATCA) telecom industry standard has been selected as the hardware platform for the “Phase-II Upgrade” of ATLAS at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. In November 2014 a project dedicated to the study of the impact of the ATCA integration in the actual counting rooms was launched analysing the impact on the cooling infrastructures. A spare rack equipped with two ATCA shelves, high power dissipating load blades, temperature and air velocity sensors were installed in a lab....

  10. Blueprint for the development of low carbon society scenarios for Asian regions- case study of Iskandar Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, C S; Chau, L W; Teh, B T; Matsuoka, Y; Simson, J J; Gomi, K

    2013-01-01

    Malaysian government aims to reduce 40% reduction of carbon emission intensity by the year 2020 using 2005 as the base year. Several mitigation and adaptation strategies in addressing environmental and climate change are formulated at national, regional and local level to mitigate greenhouse gases. This paper aims to examine local and regional resilient policy actions to reduce greenhouse gases using the empirical case of Iskandar Malaysia. The study case is selected because it is one of the fast developing economic corridor regions in Malaysia. In this study, a low carbon society blueprint is initiated to guide the rapid development of this economic corridor towards low carbon green growth. The blueprint provides the sustainable green growth roadmap with major 12 actions for the region. It is done through a bottom-up approach where stakeholder discussions are carried out to allow local communities participation in the plan formulation.

  11. Blueprint for the development of low carbon society scenarios for Asian regions- case study of Iskandar Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, C. S.; Matsuoka, Y.; Chau, L. W.; Teh, B. T.; Simson, J. J.; Gomi, K.

    2013-06-01

    Malaysian government aims to reduce 40% reduction of carbon emission intensity by the year 2020 using 2005 as the base year. Several mitigation and adaptation strategies in addressing environmental and climate change are formulated at national, regional and local level to mitigate greenhouse gases. This paper aims to examine local and regional resilient policy actions to reduce greenhouse gases using the empirical case of Iskandar Malaysia. The study case is selected because it is one of the fast developing economic corridor regions in Malaysia. In this study, a low carbon society blueprint is initiated to guide the rapid development of this economic corridor towards low carbon green growth. The blueprint provides the sustainable green growth roadmap with major 12 actions for the region. It is done through a bottom-up approach where stakeholder discussions are carried out to allow local communities participation in the plan formulation.

  12. Radioactive and industrial waste water collection system study, Phase I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    Phase I of the Radioactive Liquid Waste (RLW) Collection System Study has been completed, and the deliverables for this portion of the study are enclosed. The deliverables include: The Work Break-down Structure (WBS) for Phase II; The Annotated Outline for the Collection Study Report; The Process Flow Diagrams (PFD) of the RLW collection system based on current literature and knowledge; The Configuration database; The Reference Index, listing all currently held documents of the RLW collection system; The Reference Drawing Index listing all currently held, potentially applicable, drawings reviewed during the PFD development; The Regulation Identification Document for RCRA and CWA; The Regulation Database for RCRA and CWA; The Regulation Review Log, including statements justifying the non-applicability of certain regulations; Regulation Library, including the photocopied regulations with highlighted text for RCRA and CWA; The summary of RTG's waste water treatment plant design experience and associated regulations on which RTG based the design of these treatment facilities; TA-50 Influent Database; Radioactive Liquid Waste Stream Characterization Database

  13. Adult Attachment Affects Neural Response to Preference-Inferring in Ambiguous Scenarios: Evidence From an fMRI Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing Zhang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Humans are highly social animals, and the ability to cater to the preferences of other individuals is encouraged by society. Preference-inferring is an important aspect of the theory of mind (TOM. Many previous studies have shown that attachment style is closely related to TOM ability. However, little is known about the effects of adult attachment style on preferences inferring under different levels of certainty. Here, we investigated how adult attachment style affects neural activity underlying preferences inferred under different levels of certainty by using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. The fMRI results demonstrated that adult attachment influenced the activation of anterior insula (AI and inferior parietal lobule (IPL in response to ambiguous preference-inferring. More specifically, in the ambiguous preference condition, the avoidant attached groups exhibited a significantly enhanced activation than secure and anxious attached groups in left IPL; the anxious attached groups exhibited a significantly reduced activation secure attached group in left IPL. In addition, the anxious attached groups exhibited a significantly reduced activation than secure and avoidant attached groups in left AI. These results were also further confirmed by the subsequent PPI analysis. The results from current study suggest that, under ambiguous situations, the avoidant attached individuals show lower sensitivity to the preference of other individuals and need to invest more cognitive resources for preference-reasoning; while compared with avoidant attached group, the anxious attached individuals express high tolerance for uncertainty and a higher ToM proficiency. Results from the current study imply that differences in preference-inferring under ambiguous conditions associated with different levels of individual attachment may explain the differences in interpersonal interaction.

  14. Telephone triage by nurses in primary care out-of-hours services in Norway: an evaluation study based on written case scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Elisabeth Holm; Hunskaar, Steinar

    2011-05-01

    The use of nurses for telephone-based triage in out-of-hours services is increasing in several countries. No investigations have been carried out in Norway into the quality of decisions made by nurses regarding our priority degree system. There are three levels: acute, urgent and non-urgent. Nurses working in seven casualty clinics in out-of-hours districts in Norway (The Watchtowers) were all invited to participate in a study to assess priority grade on 20 written medical scenarios validated by an expert group. 83 nurses (response rate 76%) participated in the study. A one-out-of-five sample of the nurses assessed the same written cases after 3 months (n = 18, response rate 90%) as a test-retest assessment. Among the acute, urgent and non-urgent scenarios, 82%, 74% and 81% were correctly classified according to national guidelines. There were significant differences in the proportion of correct classifications among the casualty clinics, but neither employment percentage nor profession or work experience affected the triage decision. The mean intraobserver variability measured by the Cohen kappa was 0.61 (CI 0.52 to 0.70), and there were significant differences in kappa with employment percentage. Casualty clinics and work experience did not affect intrarater agreement. Correct classification of acute and non-urgent cases among nurses was quite high. Work experience and employment percentage did not affect triage decision. The intrarater agreement was good and about the same as in previous studies performed in other countries. Kappa increased significantly with increasing employment percentage.

  15. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  16. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  17. Detriments of radioactive Iodine 131 in managing thyroid carcinoma - a retrospective study with review of the current scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohan, Shaweta; Agnihotri, Gaurav

    2016-01-01

    Radioactive iodine (RAI) ablation following thyroidectomy is recommended for most patients diagnosed with papillary and follicular thyroid carcinoma. We performed a literature search on MEDLlNE and EMBASE, using keywords, such as, differentiated thyroid carcinoma, radioiodine therapy, "1"3"1I complications, adverse effects and side effects, and chose the most relevant studies till date to prepare this work on the side effects of RAIT (Radioactive Iodine Therapy) for thyroid cancer. We contacted authors of published studies where appropriate for further information. Also, the percentage incidence of the hazards was determined for North Indian population accessing data from Govt. Medical Colleges of Punjab, Haryana, and Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh. The most prominent side effect came out to be xerostomia with an incidence of 47%, followed by local neck pain and swelling (39%). The incidence of gastritis was also common (34%). Radioactive iodine therapy complications have been divided into early and late effects. Early complications include gastrointestinal symptoms, radiation thyroiditis, sialadenitis/xerostomia, bone marrow suppression, gonadal damage, dry eye, and nasolacrimal duct obstruction. Late complications include secondary cancers, pulmonary fibrosis, permanent bone marrow suppression, and genetic effects. As "1"3"1I is an efficacious form of treatment that can significantly decrease the rate of mortality, recurrence and metastasis, and as the side effects are often minor and well-tolerated, radio iodine therapy remains the principal mode of treatment for patients. (author)

  18. A comparative study of transfer coefficient of Iodine from grass to cow milk under equilibrium and postulated accidental scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geetha, P.V.; Karunakara, N.; Prabhu, Ujwal; Yashodhara, I.; Ravi, P.M.; Dileep, B.N.; Karpe, Rupali

    2014-01-01

    Extensive studies on transfer of 131 I through grass-cow-milk pathway after the Chernobyl accident were reported. But, under nor mal operational conditions of a power reactor, 131 I is not present in measurable concentration in environmental matrices around a nuclear power generating station. Hence, database on 131 I transfer coefficients for grass-cow-milk pathway in equilibrium conditions in the environment of a nuclear power plant are sparse. One of method to estimate the equilibrium transfer coefficient is to use stable iodine, which is present naturally in very low levels in the environmental matrices. By measuring the concentration of stable iodine concentration in grass and cow milk, the grass-to-milk transfer coefficient of iodine can be estimated. Since the metabolism of stable and radioiodine is same, the data obtained for transfer coefficient of stable iodine could be used for predicting the transfer for radioiodine to cow milk. The measurement of stable iodine in the environmental sample is very challenging because of its extremely low concentration. Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA) can be used to estimate stable iodine in the environment matrices after suitably optimizing the condition to minimize interferences. This paper presents the results of a systematic study on the transfer coefficients for grass-cow milk pathway of iodine in normal (equilibrium) situations as well as for a postulated (simulated) emergency condition in Kaiga region

  19. Scenarios for a robust policy mix: the final report of the German study commission on sustainable energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennicke, P.

    2004-01-01

    In February 2000, the German Bundestag established a Study Commission on 'Sustainable Energy Supplies in View of Globalisation and Liberalisation' (cf. Final Report, 2002). The Commission's Final Report is a contribution made by Germany toward implementing the sustainable development objectives defined in 1992 at the World Summit in Rio de Janeiro (Agenda 21). Despite minority votes of several members of the Study Commission, the main outcomes of the Final Report are worthwhile discussing in other industrial countries. The Commission had been given the mandate to identify 'robust, sustainable development paths' for the energy sector for the period up to 2050, which represent a scientific basis for the German parliament's further decision-making in the field of long-term energy policy. The applied backcasting approach showed that an ambitious climate-protection goal--reducing CO 2 emissions by 80% by 2050 - is technically and economically feasible. The main strategies and instruments for protecting the climate while ensuring a sustainable energy supply are summarised

  20. Modeling nitrate from land surface to wells' perforations under agricultural land: success, failure, and future scenarios in a Mediterranean case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Levy

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Contamination of groundwater resources by nitrate leaching under agricultural land is probably the most troublesome agriculture-related water contamination worldwide. Contaminated areas often show large spatial variability of nitrate concentration in wells. In this study, we tried to assess whether this spatial variability can be characterized on the basis of land use and standard agricultural practices. Deep soil sampling (10 m was used to calibrate vertical flow and nitrogen-transport numerical models of the unsaturated zone under different agricultural land uses. Vegetable fields (potato and strawberry and deciduous orchards (persimmon in the Sharon area overlying the coastal aquifer of Israel were examined. Average nitrate–nitrogen fluxes below vegetable fields were 210–290 kg ha−1 yr−1 and under deciduous orchards were 110–140 kg ha−1 yr−1. The output water and nitrate–nitrogen fluxes of the unsaturated-zone models were used as input data for a three-dimensional flow and nitrate-transport model in the aquifer under an area of 13.3 km2 of agricultural land. The area was subdivided into four agricultural land uses: vegetables, deciduous orchards, citrus orchards, and non-cultivated. Fluxes of water and nitrate–nitrogen below citrus orchards were taken from a previous study in the area. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to well heads by changing the hydraulic conductivity. The nitrate-transport model, which was fed by the above-mentioned models of the unsaturated zone, succeeded in reconstructing the average nitrate concentration in the wells. However, this transport model failed in calculating the high concentrations in the most contaminated wells and the large spatial variability of nitrate concentrations in the aquifer. To reconstruct the spatial variability and enable predictions, nitrate fluxes from the unsaturated zone were multiplied by local multipliers. This action was rationalized by the fact

  1. Modeling nitrate from land surface to wells' perforations under agricultural land: success, failure, and future scenarios in a Mediterranean case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Yehuda; Shapira, Roi H.; Chefetz, Benny; Kurtzman, Daniel

    2017-07-01

    Contamination of groundwater resources by nitrate leaching under agricultural land is probably the most troublesome agriculture-related water contamination worldwide. Contaminated areas often show large spatial variability of nitrate concentration in wells. In this study, we tried to assess whether this spatial variability can be characterized on the basis of land use and standard agricultural practices. Deep soil sampling (10 m) was used to calibrate vertical flow and nitrogen-transport numerical models of the unsaturated zone under different agricultural land uses. Vegetable fields (potato and strawberry) and deciduous orchards (persimmon) in the Sharon area overlying the coastal aquifer of Israel were examined. Average nitrate-nitrogen fluxes below vegetable fields were 210-290 kg ha-1 yr-1 and under deciduous orchards were 110-140 kg ha-1 yr-1. The output water and nitrate-nitrogen fluxes of the unsaturated-zone models were used as input data for a three-dimensional flow and nitrate-transport model in the aquifer under an area of 13.3 km2 of agricultural land. The area was subdivided into four agricultural land uses: vegetables, deciduous orchards, citrus orchards, and non-cultivated. Fluxes of water and nitrate-nitrogen below citrus orchards were taken from a previous study in the area. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to well heads by changing the hydraulic conductivity. The nitrate-transport model, which was fed by the above-mentioned models of the unsaturated zone, succeeded in reconstructing the average nitrate concentration in the wells. However, this transport model failed in calculating the high concentrations in the most contaminated wells and the large spatial variability of nitrate concentrations in the aquifer. To reconstruct the spatial variability and enable predictions, nitrate fluxes from the unsaturated zone were multiplied by local multipliers. This action was rationalized by the fact that the high concentrations in some wells cannot

  2. Reactor physics studies in the steam flooded GCFR-Phase II critical assembly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharyya, S.K.

    1978-08-01

    A possible accident scenario in a Gas-Cooled Fast Reactor (GCFR) is the leakage of secondary steam into the core. Considerable analytical effort has gone into the study of the effects of such an accidental steam entry. The work described represents the first full scale experimental study of the steam-entry phenomenon in GCFRs. The reference GCFR model used for the study was the benchmark GCFR Phase II assembly, and polyethylene foam was used to provide a very homogeneous steam simulation. The reactivity worth of steam entry was measured for three different steam densities. In addition, a set of integral physics parameters were measured in the largest steam density (0.008 g/cm 3 ) configuration. The corresponding parameters were also measured in dry reference GCFR critical assembly for comparison. The experiments were analyzed using ENDF/B-IV data and two-dimensional diffusion theory methods. As in earlier GCFR critical experiments analysis, the Benoist method was used to treat the problem of neutron streaming

  3. A Phase 1 biodistribution study of p-boronophenylalanine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coderre, J.A.

    1991-01-01

    The objectives of the Phase I BPA biodistribution study are as follows: Objective 1: To establish the safety of orally administered boronophenylalanine (BPA) as determined by monitoring of patient's vital signs and by clinical analysis of blood before and after BPA administration. Objective 2: To establish BPA pharmacokinetics by monitoring the rates of boron absorption into and clearance from the blood and the rate of urinary excretion of boron. Objective 3: To measure the amount of boron incorporated into human tumors (melanoma, glioma, and breast carcinoma) using samples obtained at surgery or biopsy. This report presents the results obtained from the first thirteen patients entered into the study. Three additional glioblastoma patients have been studied recently at Stony Brook, the tissues are still being analyzed

  4. Hello handsome! Male's facial attractiveness gives rise to female's fairness bias in Ultimatum Game scenarios-An ERP study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Qingguo; Qian, Da; Hu, Linfeng; Wang, Lei

    2017-01-01

    The current study delineated how male proposers' facial attractiveness affect female responders' fairness considerations and their subsequent decision outcome during the Ultimatum Game (UG). Event Related Potentials (ERPs) were recorded from 17 female subjects, who played the role as responders and had to decide whether to accept offers from either attractive or unattractive male proposers. Behavioral data (Acceptance Ratio and Response time) revealed that, more offers were accepted from attractive-face conditions; subjects typically responded quicker to unfair offers from unattractive proposers as compared with slower to unfair offers from attractive proposers. The ERP data demonstrated similar N2 amplitudes elicited by both attractive and unattractive faces, and a larger early frontal LPP elicited by the attractive faces compared with unattractive ones, but no significant differences of both late posterior LPP and typical parietal LPP amplitudes were observed between these two face conditions, which was different from our previous study with similar paradigm but male participants. The results suggest that, in comparison to males, females might not experience the potential attention bias towards unattractive opposite-sex faces and are less likely to possess an enhanced processing and evaluation of those faces. This phenomenon might be explained by endogenous gender differences in mate preference. The feedback-related negativity (FRN) and P300 responses during an offer presentation were further measured in both attractive-face and unattractive-face conditions and the results demonstrated that the amplitudes elicited by fair and unfair offers were not statistically different in the former condition, but were different in the latter condition. More specifically, unfair offers generated larger FRN and smaller P300 than fair ones in the unattractive-face condition. Findings suggest that, although females tend to possess less salient evaluation of male's facial

  5. Kyphoplasty for vertebral augmentation in the elderly with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures: scenarios and review of recent studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednar, Timothy; Heyde, Christoph E; Bednar, Grace; Nguyen, David; Volpi, Elena; Przkora, Rene

    2013-11-01

    Vertebral compression fractures caused by osteoporosis are among the most common fractures in the elderly. The treatment focuses on pain control, maintenance of independence, and management of the osteoporosis. Elderly patients often encounter adverse effects to pain medications, do not tolerate bed rest, and are not ideal candidates for invasive spinal reconstructive surgery. Percutaneous vertebral augmentation (vertebroplasty or kyphoplasty) has become popular as a less-invasive alternative. However, studies have questioned the effectiveness of these procedures. The authors conducted a MEDLINE search using relevant search terms including osteoporosis, osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture, elderly, kyphoplasty and vertebroplasty. Two elderly patients presented with a fracture of their third and first lumbar vertebral body, respectively. One patient progressed well with conservative treatment, whereas the other patient was hospitalized secondary to pain after conservative measures failed to offer improvement. The hospitalized patient subsequently opted for a kyphoplasty and was able to resume his normal daily activities after the procedure. Selecting patients on an individual case-by-case basis can optimize the effectiveness and outcomes of a vertebral augmentation. This process includes the documentation of an osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture with the aide of imaging studies, including the acuity of the fracture as well as the correlation with the physical examination findings. Patients who are functional and improving under a conservative regimen are not candidates for kyphoplasty. However, if the conservative management is not successful after 4 to 6 weeks and the patient is at risk to become bedridden, an augmentation should be considered. A kyphoplasty procedure may be preferred over vertebroplasty, given the lower risk profile and better outcomes regarding spinal alignment. Published by Elsevier HS Journals, Inc.

  6. A multi-criteria assessment of scenarios on thermal processing of infectious hospital wastes: A case study for Central Macedonia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karagiannidis, A.; Papageorgiou, A.; Perkoulidis, G.; Sanida, G.; Samaras, P.

    2010-01-01

    In Greece more than 14,000 tonnes of infectious hospital waste are produced yearly; a significant part of it is still mismanaged. Only one off-site licensed incineration facility for hospital wastes is in operation, with the remaining of the market covered by various hydroclave and autoclave units, whereas numerous problems are still generally encountered regarding waste segregation, collection, transportation and management, as well as often excessive entailed costs. Everyday practices still include dumping the majority of solid hospital waste into household disposal sites and landfills after sterilization, still largely without any preceding recycling and separation steps. Discussed in the present paper are the implemented and future treatment practices of infectious hospital wastes in Central Macedonia; produced quantities are reviewed, actual treatment costs are addressed critically, whereas the overall situation in Greece is discussed. Moreover, thermal treatment processes that could be applied for the treatment of infectious hospital wastes in the region are assessed via the multi-criteria decision method Analytic Hierarchy Process. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was performed and the analysis demonstrated that a centralized autoclave or hydroclave plant near Thessaloniki is the best performing option, depending however on the selection and weighing of criteria of the multi-criteria process. Moreover the study found that a common treatment option for the treatment of all infectious hospital wastes produced in the Region of Central Macedonia, could offer cost and environmental benefits. In general the multi-criteria decision method, as well as the conclusions and remarks of this study can be used as a basis for future planning and anticipation of the needs for investments in the area of medical waste management.

  7. Facility Location for Solid Waste Management through Compilation and Multicriterial Ranking of Optimal Decentralised Scenarios: A Case Study for the Region of Peloponesse in Southern Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Karagiannidis

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The present paper addresses the problem of locating solid waste management facilities.Specifically, it studies and proposes optimal alternative solutions for the Greek Region of Peloponnese,by examining facilities for transferring, sorting, treating and landfilling of wastes. Quantitative and qualitative databases concerning the current solid waste management at the Region have been created and used by the model. A customized mixed-integer linear network model has been developed and solved for various evaluation criteria on a single-criterion basis by the use of a location-allocation modeling framework.The solutions resulting from the parametrical application of the multicriterial method ELECTRE III are then ranked for the entire criteria-spectrum. The best alternative scenario is presented for the Region in accordance with current legislation on waste management, which maximizes environmental benefits and promotes recycling, in the frame of sustainable waste management.

  8. A study on the operator's errors of commission (EOC) in accident scenarios of nuclear power plants: methodology development and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jae Whan; Jung, Won Dea; Park, Jin Kyun; Kang, Da Il

    2003-04-01

    As the concern on the operator's inappropriate interventions, the so-called Errors Of Commission (EOCs), that can exacerbate the plant safety has been raised, much of interest in the identification and analysis of EOC events from the risk assessment perspective has been increased. Also, one of the items in need of improvement for the conventional PSA and HRA that consider only the system-demanding human actions is the inclusion of the operator's EOC events into the PSA model. In this study, we propose a methodology for identifying and analysing human errors of commission that might be occurring from the failures in situation assessment and decision making during accident progressions given an initiating event. In order to achieve this goal, the following research items have been performed: Firstly, we analysed the error causes or situations contributed to the occurrence of EOCs in several incidents/accidents of nuclear power plants. Secondly, limitations of the advanced HRAs in treating EOCs were reviewed, and a requirement for a new methodology for analysing EOCs was established. Thirdly, based on these accomplishments a methodology for identifying and analysing EOC events inducible from the failures in situation assessment and decision making was proposed and applied to all the accident sequences of YGN 3 and 4 NPP which resulted in the identification of about 10 EOC situations

  9. The Use of System Codes in Scaling Studies: Relevant Techniques for Qualifying NPP Nodalizations for Particular Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Martinez-Quiroga

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available System codes along with necessary nodalizations are valuable tools for thermal hydraulic safety analysis. Qualifying both codes and nodalizations is an essential step prior to their use in any significant study involving code calculations. Since most existing experimental data come from tests performed on the small scale, any qualification process must therefore address scale considerations. This paper describes the methodology developed at the Technical University of Catalonia in order to contribute to the qualification of Nuclear Power Plant nodalizations by means of scale disquisitions. The techniques that are presented include the so-called Kv-scaled calculation approach as well as the use of “hybrid nodalizations” and “scaled-up nodalizations.” These methods have revealed themselves to be very helpful in producing the required qualification and in promoting further improvements in nodalization. The paper explains both the concepts and the general guidelines of the method, while an accompanying paper will complete the presentation of the methodology as well as showing the results of the analysis of scaling discrepancies that appeared during the posttest simulations of PKL-LSTF counterpart tests performed on the PKL-III and ROSA-2 OECD/NEA Projects. Both articles together produce the complete description of the methodology that has been developed in the framework of the use of NPP nodalizations in the support to plant operation and control.

  10. Comparison of 2 resident learning tools-interactive screen-based simulated case scenarios versus problem-based learning discussions: a prospective quasi-crossover cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajan, Shobana; Khanna, Ashish; Argalious, Maged; Kimatian, Stephen J; Mascha, Edward J; Makarova, Natalya; Nada, Eman M; Elsharkawy, Hesham; Firoozbakhsh, Farhad; Avitsian, Rafi

    2016-02-01

    Simulation-based learning is emerging as an alternative educational tool in this era of a relative shortfall of teaching anesthesiologists. The objective of the study is to assess whether screen-based (interactive computer simulated) case scenarios are more effective than problem-based learning discussions (PBLDs) in improving test scores 4 and 8 weeks after these interventions in anesthesia residents during their first neuroanesthesia rotation. Prospective, nonblinded quasi-crossover study. Cleveland Clinic. Anesthesiology residents. Two case scenarios were delivered from the Anesoft software as screen-based sessions, and parallel scripts were developed for 2 PBLDs. Each resident underwent both types of training sessions, starting with the PBLD session, and the 2 cases were alternated each month (ie, in 1 month, the screen-based intervention used case 1 and the PBLD used case 2, and vice versa for the next month). Test scores before the rotation (baseline), immediately after the rotation (4 weeks after the start of the rotation), and 8 weeks after the start of rotation were collected on each topic from each resident. The effect of training method on improvement in test scores was assessed using a linear mixed-effects model. Compared to the departmental standard of PBLD, the simulation method did not improve either the 4- or 8-week mean test scores (P = .41 and P = .40 for training method effect on 4- and 8-week scores, respectively). Resident satisfaction with the simulation module on a 5-point Likert scale showed subjective evidence of a positive impact on resident education. Screen-based simulators were not more effective than PBLD for education during the neuroanesthesia rotation in anesthesia residency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Magnetic phase transitions in two-dimensional frustrated Cu3R(SeO3)2O2Cl. Spectroscopic study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimin, S. A.; Budkin, I. V.

    2017-01-01

    Using optical study of electronic spectra of rare-earth (RE) ions, magnetic phase transitions in the low-dimensional frustrated RE magnets Cu3R(SeO3)2O2Cl (R = Sm, Yb, Er, Nd, Pr, Eu) were investigated. Phase transitions were registered either by splittings of crystal-field (CF) doublets or by repulsion of CF levels of f-ions in a staggered magnetic field. Different scenarios of magnetic order in isostructural compounds of the francisite family are discussed.

  12. SUPERCRITICAL WATER PARTIAL OXIDATION PHASE I - PILOT-SCALE TESTING / FEASIBILITY STUDIES FINAL REPORT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    SPRITZER,M; HONG,G

    2005-01-01

    Under Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FC36-00GO10529 for the Department of Energy, General Atomics (GA) is developing Supercritical Water Partial Oxidation (SWPO) as a means of producing hydrogen from low-grade biomass and other waste feeds. The Phase I Pilot-scale Testing/Feasibility Studies have been successfully completed and the results of that effort are described in this report. The Key potential advantages of the SWPO process is the use of partial oxidation in-situ to rapidly heat the gasification medium, resulting in less char formation and improved hydrogen yield. Another major advantage is that the high-pressure, high-density aqueous environment is ideal for reaching and gasifying organics of all types. The high water content of the medium encourages formation of hydrogen and hydrogen-rich products and is especially compatible with high water content feeds such as biomass materials. The high water content of the medium is also effective for gasification of hydrogen-poor materials such as coal. A versatile pilot plant for exploring gasification in supercritical water has been established at GA's facilities in San Diego. The Phase I testing of the SWPO process with wood and ethanol mixtures demonstrated gasification efficiencies of about 90%, comparable to those found in prior laboratory-scale SCW gasification work carreid out at the University of Hawaii at Manoa (UHM) as well as other biomass gasification experience with conventional gasifiers. As in the prior work at UHM, a significant amount of the hydrogen found in the gas phase products is derived from the water/steam matrix. The studies at UHM utilized an indirectly heated gasifier with an acitvated carbon catalyst. In contrast, the GA studies utilized a directly heated gasifier without catalyst, plus a surrogate waste fuel. Attainment of comparable gasification efficiencies without catalysis is an important advancement for the GA process, and opens the way for efficient hydrogen production from low

  13. Study of dynamic strain aging in dual phase steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Queiroz, R.R.U.; Cunha, F.G.G.; Gonzalez, B.M.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Characterization of the high temperature mechanical behavior of a dual phase steel. ► Determination of the effect of dynamic strain aging on the strain hardening rate. ► Identification of the mechanism associated with dynamic strain aging. ► The value of the interaction energy carbon–dislocation in ferrite was confirmed. - Abstract: The susceptibility to dynamic strain aging of a dual phase steel was evaluated by the variation of mechanical properties in tension with the temperature and the strain rate. The tensile tests were performed at temperatures varying between 25 °C and 600 °C and at strain rates ranging from 10 −2 to 5 × 10 −4 s −1 . The studied steel presented typical manifestations related to dynamic strain aging: serrated flow (the Portevin–Le Chatelier effect) for certain combinations of temperature and strain rates; the presence of a plateau in the variation of yield stress with temperature; a maximum in the curves of tensile strength, flow stress, and work hardening exponent as a function of temperature; and a minimum in the variation of total elongation with temperature. The determined apparent activation energy values, associated with the beginning of the Portevin–Le Chatelier effect and the maximum in the variation of flow stress with temperature, were 83 kJ/mol and 156 kJ/mol, respectively. These values suggest that the mechanism responsible for dynamic strain aging in the dual phase steel is the locking of dislocations by carbon atoms in ferrite and that the formation of clusters and/or transition carbides and carbide precipitation in martensite do not interfere with the dynamic strain aging process.

  14. Study of double parton scattering using four-jet scenarios in proton-proton collisions at √(s)=7 TeV with the CMS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunnellini, Paolo

    2015-03-01

    Measurements of the differential cross sections for multijet scenarios in proton-proton collisions are presented as a function of the transverse momentum p T and pseudorapidity, together with the correlations in azimuthal angle and the p T balance among the jets. Two different scenarios are separately studied; in the first one an exclusive four-jet final state is selected in vertical stroke η vertical stroke <4.7, by requiring two hard jets with p T >50 GeV each, together with two jets of p T >20 GeV each. No other jets with p T >20 GeV are allowed in the selected events. In the second one at least four jets with p T >20 GeV are required: two of the four selected jets are asked to be originated by a b-quark in vertical stroke η vertical stroke <2.4, while no requests on the flavour of the other two jets, which are selected within vertical stroke η vertical stroke <4.7 are applied. The data sample was collected in 2010 at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV with the CMS detector at the LHC, with an integrated luminosity of 36 pb -1 . The total cross section is measured to be σ(pp→ 4j+X)=330±5 (stat.)±4(syst.) and σ(pp→2b+2j+X)=67.2±2.2(stat.)±22.5 (syst.) for, respectively, the two selected multijet scenarios. It is found that fixed-order matrix element calculations including parton showers describe the measured differential cross sections in some regions of phase space only, and that adding contributions from double parton scattering brings the Monte Carlo predictions closer to the data. A new method of extraction of double parton scattering contributions from an experimental measurement is introduced for the first time: it is applied to W+dijet measurements and to both multijet channels. Values of σ eff are measured to be 19.0 +4.6 -3.0 mb and 23.2 +3.3 -2.5 mb for the two examined selections. These values are consistent between each other and compatible with measurements based on different physics channels at 7 TeV.

  15. Maps From Mud—Using the Multiple Scenario Approach to Reconstruct Land Cover Dynamics From Pollen Records: A Case Study of Two Neolithic Landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Jane Bunting

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Pollen records contain a wide range of information about past land cover, but translation from the pollen diagram to other formats remains a challenge. In this paper, we present LandPolFlow, a software package enabling Multiple Scenario Approach (MSA based land cover reconstruction from pollen records for specific landscapes. It has two components: a basic Geographic Information System which takes grids of landscape constraints (e.g., topography, geology and generates possible “scenarios” of past land cover using a combination of probabilistic and deterministic placement rules to distribute defined plant communities within the landscape, and a pollen dispersal and deposition model which simulates pollen loading at specified points within each scenario and compares that statistically with actual pollen assemblages from the same location. Goodness of fit statistics from multiple pollen site locations are used to identify which scenarios are likely reconstructions of past land cover. We apply this approach to two case studies of Neolithisation in Britain, the first from the Somerset Levels and Moors and the second from Mainland, Orkney. Both landscapes contain significant evidence of Neolithic activity, but present contrasting contexts. In Somerset, wet-preserved Neolithic remains such as trackways are abundant, but little dry land settlement archaeology is known, and the pre-Neolithic landscape was extensively wooded. In Orkney, the Neolithic archaeology includes domestic and monumental stone-built structures forming a UNESCO World Heritage Site, and the pre-Neolithic landscape was largely treeless. Existing pollen records were collated from both landscapes and correlated within new chronological frameworks (presented elsewhere. This allowed pollen data to be grouped into 200 year periods, or “timeslices,” for reconstruction of land cover through time using the MSA. Reconstruction suggests that subtle but clear and persistent impacts of

  16. Research and development of system to utilize photovoltaic energy. Study on the scenario for the diffusion of photovoltaic power generating systems; Taiyoko hatsuden riyo sytem no kenkyu kaihatsu. Taiyoko hatsuden donyu fukyu scenario sakusei no tame no chosa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tatsuta, M [New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, Tokyo (Japan)

    1994-12-01

    This paper reports the result obtained during fiscal 1994 on a survey to prepare scenario for the diffusion of photovoltaic power generating systems. Introduction target planned with help of a diffusion simulation was verified by calculations using simulation models. The calculations made the following points clear: facility costs and power generation costs for photovoltaic power generation systems, amount of introduced photovoltaic power generation systems, number of facilities introducing photovoltaic power generation systems, policy cost to achieve the target, annual power generation amount, oil substituting effect, carbon dioxide reducing effect, and market sizes. Power generation cost in fiscal 2000 would drop down to 53 yen per kWh in new installation in independent houses and down to 31 yen per kWh in systems used in schools. These reductions are the result of progress in mass production as a result of positively implementing the aiding policies. The required diffusion aiding policies revealed from the simulation results include expansion of subsidy operations for house construction, introduction of the systems into public facilities performed by public organizations, aid to system introduction into private business entities, subsidy to facility investments, and enforcement of power purchase institutions. 3 figs.

  17. Ripeness sensor development. Final report of a Phase 2 study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stroshine, R.

    1995-08-01

    This is a final report for the Phase II study entitled ``Ripeness Sensor Development.`` The overall objective of the study was the development of a prototype device capable of testing whole fruits for sugar content. Although ripeness and sugar content are not synonymous, they are closely related. Furthermore, the consumer`s acceptance of or preference for fruits is strongly influenced by sugar content. Therefore, the device was called a ripeness sensor. The principle behind the measurement is proton magnetic resonance ({sup 1}H-MR). For several decades, chemists, pharmacists and other scientists have been using {sup 1}H-MR to investigate chemical structure and composition. More recently, the technique has been used in laboratories of the food industry for quality control. This effort represents one of the first attempts to adapt {sup 1}H-MR to use in a commercial facility. 28 refs., 36 figs., 7 tabs.

  18. Angra-1 probabilistic safety study-phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandes Filho, T.L.; Gibelli, S.M.O.

    1988-05-01

    This study represents the Phase B of the Angra-1 Probabilistic Safety Study and is the the final report prepared for the IAEA under Research Contract No. 3423/R2/RB. The three main items covered in this report are the establishment of interim safety goals, analysis of Angra-1 operational experience and development of emergency procedures to address severe accidents. For establishment of interim safety goals a methodology for calculating consequences and risks associated to the Angra-1 operation was developed based on the available data and codes. The proposed safety goals refer to the individual risk of early fatality for people living in the vicinity of the plant, colective risk of cancer fatalities for people living near the plant, the propobability of core melt occurrence and the probability of dominant accident sequences. (author) [pt

  19. The matter-ekpyrotic bounce scenario in Loop Quantum Cosmology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haro, Jaume; Amorós, Jaume; Saló, Llibert Aresté, E-mail: jaime.haro@upc.edu, E-mail: jaume.amoros@upc.edu, E-mail: llibert.areste@estudiant.upc.edu [Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Diagonal 647, 08028 Barcelona (Spain)

    2017-09-01

    We will perform a detailed study of the matter-ekpyrotic bouncing scenario in Loop Quantum Cosmology using the methods of the dynamical systems theory. We will show that when the background is driven by a single scalar field, at very late times, in the contracting phase, all orbits depict a matter dominated Universe, which evolves to an ekpyrotic phase. After the bounce the Universe enters in the expanding phase, where the orbits leave the ekpyrotic regime going to a kination (also named deflationary) regime. Moreover, this scenario supports the production of heavy massive particles conformally coupled with gravity, which reheats the universe at temperatures compatible with the nucleosynthesis bounds and also the production of massless particles non-conformally coupled with gravity leading to very high reheating temperatures but ensuring the nucleosynthesis success. Dealing with cosmological perturbations, these background dynamics produce a nearly scale invariant power spectrum for the modes that leave the Hubble radius, in the contracting phase, when the Universe is quasi-matter dominated, whose spectral index and corresponding running is compatible with the recent experimental data obtained by PLANCK's team.

  20. The matter-ekpyrotic bounce scenario in Loop Quantum Cosmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haro, Jaume; Amorós, Jaume; Aresté Saló, Llibert

    2017-09-01

    We will perform a detailed study of the matter-ekpyrotic bouncing scenario in Loop Quantum Cosmology using the methods of the dynamical systems theory. We will show that when the background is driven by a single scalar field, at very late times, in the contracting phase, all orbits depict a matter dominated Universe, which evolves to an ekpyrotic phase. After the bounce the Universe enters in the expanding phase, where the orbits leave the ekpyrotic regime going to a kination (also named deflationary) regime. Moreover, this scenario supports the production of heavy massive particles conformally coupled with gravity, which reheats the universe at temperatures compatible with the nucleosynthesis bounds and also the production of massless particles non-conformally coupled with gravity leading to very high reheating temperatures but ensuring the nucleosynthesis success. Dealing with cosmological perturbations, these background dynamics produce a nearly scale invariant power spectrum for the modes that leave the Hubble radius, in the contracting phase, when the Universe is quasi-matter dominated, whose spectral index and corresponding running is compatible with the recent experimental data obtained by PLANCK's team.

  1. The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

    2013-01-01

    After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

  2. Statistical inference for extended or shortened phase II studies based on Simon's two-stage designs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Junjun; Yu, Menggang; Feng, Xi-Ping

    2015-06-07

    Simon's two-stage designs are popular choices for conducting phase II clinical trials, especially in the oncology trials to reduce the number of patients placed on ineffective experimental therapies. Recently Koyama and Chen (2008) discussed how to conduct proper inference for such studies because they found that inference procedures used with Simon's designs almost always ignore the actual sampling plan used. In particular, they proposed an inference method for studies when the actual second stage sample sizes differ from planned ones. We consider an alternative inference method based on likelihood ratio. In particular, we order permissible sample paths under Simon's two-stage designs using their corresponding conditional likelihood. In this way, we can calculate p-values using the common definition: the probability of obtaining a test statistic value at least as extreme as that observed under the null hypothesis. In addition to providing inference for a couple of scenarios where Koyama and Chen's method can be difficult to apply, the resulting estimate based on our method appears to have certain advantage in terms of inference properties in many numerical simulations. It generally led to smaller biases and narrower confidence intervals while maintaining similar coverages. We also illustrated the two methods in a real data setting. Inference procedures used with Simon's designs almost always ignore the actual sampling plan. Reported P-values, point estimates and confidence intervals for the response rate are not usually adjusted for the design's adaptiveness. Proper statistical inference procedures should be used.

  3. Study of the implantation potential for methanizers at the scale of the Pays-de-Bocage (61). Diagnosis of the situation of the methanization sector and of its development potential - Detailed analysis of scenarios. Study report, November 2016. Action study for the development of territorial methanization - Orne Pays-de-Bocage. Projected methanization units in the Orne district. An opportunity for local companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carbonnel, Claire; Priarollo, Jeremie; Deborde, Isabelle; Quere, Jean-Jacques; Goasdoue, Yves; Nury, Jerome; Borney, Eric; Bisson, Stephane; Lhomer, Regis

    2016-11-01

    This study aims at characterising territories of the Orne district in terms of potential of development of individual, collective and territorial methanization units. A first phase aimed at providing a situational analysis of the methanization sector in the district. During a second phase, different resources of mobilisable organic wastes have been quantified, characterised and mapped at the district level in combination with energy outlets (gas and heat) and digestate outlets. A third phase aimed identifying and characterising district areas displaying a methanization potential. The report thus presents the territory, the methanization as an opportunity for territories, and an assessment of the present situation of the methanization sector. It gives an assessment of the methanizable matter resource from various origins, an identification of the different energetic outlets, and of potential areas. Four scenarios are then presented and are characterised by specific hypotheses, energy flows, investments, exploitation assessment, and a financial analysis. Agronomic, environmental and regulatory challenges are commented, as well as legal aspects related to project implementation. Power Point presentations are then provided which present results of this study in a synthetic and illustrated way. A second set of Power Point presentations proposes an analysis of the methanization potential in the district, and a description of a typical business model for a methanization unit

  4. Study on partial overheat of the isolated phase busbar outlet box in Qinshan NPP phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang Fangxuan; Zhang Jian; Zeng Limin; Bao Yanxing; Zhang Lie; Yang Yuemin

    2013-01-01

    This paper recommended the structure of the isolated phase busbar outlet box installed in Qinshan II. The study on partial overheat of the outlet box shows that the ultimate causes are the loss of concentrated eddy current and short of cooling. So the improvement principles of 'distributing eddy current, cutting off inductive circle current and strengthening of ventilation' were determined. A new structure test outlet box was designed and manufactured, and the temperature rising experiment was carried out. Some alterations were made in the new structure outlet box, e.g. isolating materials were added between side plates of the upper outlet box, and also between the upper and lower outlet box. Two cooling blowers were added to the upper outlet box. After putting into operation, the hot-spot temperature of the new outlet box was greatly lowered down. Thus the operation environment was improved, and the operation safety ensured. It can be useful references for analyzing and dealing with similar problems. (authors)

  5. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  6. Advanced scenarios for ITER operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sips, A.C.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produce and study plasmas dominated by self heating. This would give unique opportunities to explore, in reactor relevant conditions, the physics of {alpha}-particle heating, plasma turbulence and turbulent transport, stability limits to the plasma pressure and exhaust of power and particles. Important new results obtained in experiments, theory and modelling, enable an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring in tokamak plasmas and give enhanced confidence in ITER achieving its goals. In particular, progress has been made in research to raise the performance of tokamaks, aimed to extend the discharge pulse length towards steady-state operation (advanced scenarios). Standard tokamak discharges have a current density increasing monotonically towards the centre of the plasma. Advanced scenarios on the other hand use a modified current density profile. Different advanced scenarios range from (i) plasmas that sustain a central region with a flat current density profile (zero magnetic shear), capable of operating stationary at high plasma pressure, to (ii) discharges with an off axis maximum of the current density profile (reversed magnetic shear in the core), able to form internal transport barriers, to increase the confinement of the plasma. The physics of advanced tokamak discharges is described, together with an overview of recent results from different tokamak experiments. International collaboration between experiments aims to provide a better understanding, control and optimisation of these plasmas. The ability to explore advanced scenarios in ITER is very desirable, in order to verify the result obtained in

  7. Gas phase absorption studies of photoactive yellow protein chromophore derivatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha-Rinza, Toms; Christiansen, Ove; Rajput, Jyoti; Gopalan, Aravind; Rahbek, Dennis B; Andersen, Lars H; Bochenkova, Anastasia V; Granovsky, Alexander A; Bravaya, Ksenia B; Nemukhin, Alexander V; Christiansen, Kasper Lincke; Nielsen, Mogens Brøndsted

    2009-08-27

    Photoabsorption spectra of deprotonated trans p-coumaric acid and two of its methyl substituted derivatives have been studied in gas phase both experimentally and theoretically. We have focused on the spectroscopic effect of the location of the two possible deprotonation sites on the trans p-coumaric acid which originate to either a phenoxide or a carboxylate. Surprisingly, the three chromophores were found to have the same absorption maximum at 430 nm, in spite of having different deprotonation positions. However, the absorption of the chromophore in polar solution is substantially different for the distinct deprotonation locations. We also report on the time scales and pathways of relaxation after photoexcitation for the three photoactive yellow protein chromophore derivatives. As a result of these experiments, we could detect the phenoxide isomer within the deprotonated trans p-coumaric acid in gas phase; however, the occurrence of the carboxylate is uncertain. Several computational methods were used simultaneously to provide insights and assistance in the interpretation of our experimental results. The calculated excitation energies S(0)-S(1) are in good agreement with experiment for those systems having a negative charge on a phenoxide moiety. Although our augmented multiconfigurational quasidegenerate perturbation theory calculations agree with experiment in the description of the absorption spectrum of anions with a carboxylate functional group, there are some puzzling disagreements between experiment and some calculational methods in the description of these systems.

  8. Experimental study of two-phase natural circulation circuit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemos, Wanderley Freitas; Su, Jian, E-mail: wlemos@lasme.coppe.ufrj.br, E-mail: sujian@nuclear.ufrj.br [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear; Faccini, Jose Luiz Horacio, E-mail: faccini@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), RIo de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Termo-Hidraulica Experimental

    2012-07-01

    This paper reports an experimental study on the behavior of fluid flow in natural circulation under single-and two-phase flow conditions. The natural circulation circuit was designed based on concepts of similarity and scale in proportion to the actual operating conditions of a nuclear reactor. This test equipment has similar performance to the passive system for removal of residual heat presents in Advanced Pressurized Water Reactors (A PWR). The experiment was carried out by supplying water to primary and secondary circuits, as well as electrical power resistors installed inside the heater. Power controller has available to adjust the values for supply of electrical power resistors, in order to simulate conditions of decay of power from the nuclear reactor in steady state. Data acquisition system allows the measurement and control of the temperature at different points by means of thermocouples installed at several points along the circuit. The behavior of the phenomenon of natural circulation was monitored by a software with graphical interface, showing the evolution of temperature measurement points and the results stored in digital format spreadsheets. Besides, the natural circulation flow rate was measured by a flowmeter installed on the hot leg. A flow visualization technique was used the for identifying vertical flow regimes of two-phase natural circulation. Finally, the Reynolds Number was calculated for the establishment of a friction factor correlation dependent on the scale geometrical length, height and diameter of the pipe. (author)

  9. Experimental study of two-phase natural circulation circuit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemos, Wanderley Freitas; Su, Jian; Faccini, Jose Luiz Horacio

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports an experimental study on the behavior of fluid flow in natural circulation under single-and two-phase flow conditions. The natural circulation circuit was designed based on concepts of similarity and scale in proportion to the actual operating conditions of a nuclear reactor. This test equipment has similar performance to the passive system for removal of residual heat presents in Advanced Pressurized Water Reactors (A PWR). The experiment was carried out by supplying water to primary and secondary circuits, as well as electrical power resistors installed inside the heater. Power controller has available to adjust the values for supply of electrical power resistors, in order to simulate conditions of decay of power from the nuclear reactor in steady state. Data acquisition system allows the measurement and control of the temperature at different points by means of thermocouples installed at several points along the circuit. The behavior of the phenomenon of natural circulation was monitored by a software with graphical interface, showing the evolution of temperature measurement points and the results stored in digital format spreadsheets. Besides, the natural circulation flow rate was measured by a flowmeter installed on the hot leg. A flow visualization technique was used the for identifying vertical flow regimes of two-phase natural circulation. Finally, the Reynolds Number was calculated for the establishment of a friction factor correlation dependent on the scale geometrical length, height and diameter of the pipe. (author)

  10. Experimental studies of interaction mechanisms and phase transport processes in two-phase flow (NOVA program)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sauter, H.; Meyder, R.; Philipp, P.; Samstag, M.

    1995-01-01

    The NOVA program was continued with turbulent, vertical, upward two-phase flow experiments. The development of a local gas distribution along the test section was visualized by X-ray tomography. (orig.)

  11. Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duangdai, Eakkapong; Likasiri, Chulin

    2017-03-01

    In this work, 4 models for predicting rainfall amounts are investigated and compared using Northern Thailand's seasonal rainfall data for 1973-2008. Two models, global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall (TFR) and modified TFR based on a system of differential equations, give the relationships between global temperature, Northern Thailand's forest cover and seasonal rainfalls in the region. The other two models studied are time series and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. All models are validated using the k-fold cross validation method with the resulting errors being 0.971233, 0.740891, 2.376415 and 2.430891 for time series, ARMA, TFR and modified TFR models, respectively. Under Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, seasonal rainfalls in Northern Thailand are projected through the year 2020 using all 4 models. TFR and modified TFR models are also used to further analyze how global temperature rise and government reforestation policy affect seasonal rainfalls in the region. Rainfall projections obtained via the two models are also compared with those from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under IS92a scenario. Results obtained through a mathematical model for global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall show that the higher the forest cover, the less fluctuation there is between rainy-season and summer rainfalls. Moreover, growth in forest cover also correlates with an increase in summer rainfalls. An investigation into the relationship between main crop productions and rainfalls in dry and rainy seasons indicates that if the rainy-season rainfall is high, that year's main-crop rice production will decrease but the second-crop rice, maize, sugarcane and soybean productions will increase in the following year.

  12. Moessbauer study of phase transitions under high hydrostatic pressures. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kapitanov, E.V.; Yakovlev, E.N.

    1979-01-01

    Experimental results of the hydrostatic pressure influence on Moessbauer spectrum parameters are obtained over the pressure range including the area of structural phase transition. A linear increase of the Moessbauer effect probability (recoilless fraction) is accompanied by a linear decrease of the electron density at tin nuclei within the pressure range foregoing the phase transition. The electric resistance and the recoilless fraction of the new phase of Mg 2 Sn are lower, but the electron density at tin nuclei is greater than the initial phase ones. Hydrostatic conditions allow to fix clearly the diphasic transition area and to determine the influence of the pressure on the Moessbauer line position and on the recoilless fraction of the high pressure phase. The phase transition heat Q = 415 cal mol -1 is calculated using recoilless fractions of the high and low pressure phases at 25 kbar. The present results are qualitatively and quantitatively different from the results, obtained at nonhydrostatic conditions. (author)

  13. Procedural method for the development of scenarios in the operational phase following closure of final repositories in deep geological formations. Report on the working package 1. Development of the international status of science and technology concerning methods and tools for operational and long-term safety cases; Vorgehensweise bei der Szenarienentwicklung in der Nachverschlussphase von Endlagern in tiefen geologieschen Formationen. Bericht zum Arbeitspaket 1. Weiterentwicklung des internationalen Stands von Wissenschaft und Technik zu Methoden und Werkzeugen fuer Betriebs- und Langzeitsicherheitsnachweise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uhlmann, Stephan

    2016-09-15

    For the disposal of high-level radioactive wastes the disposal in deep geological formations is internationally favored. The safety cases include the scientific, technical, administrative and operational safety analyses and arguments, including the management system. According to IAEA the safety case includes site qualification, the design of the facility, construction and operation including an accident analysis, the closure phase and the post-closure phase. The safety case includes the evaluation of radiological risks for several scenarios. The report covers the methodology of scenario assumption in the post-closure phase of repositories in deep geological formations.

  14. Scenario studies for algae production

    OpenAIRE

    Slegers, P.M.

    2014-01-01

    Microalgae are a promising biomass for the biobased economy to produce food, feed, fuel, chemicals and materials. So far, large-scale production of algae is limited and as a result estimates on the performance of such large systems are scarce. There is a need to estimate large-scale biomass productivity and energy consumption, while considering the uncertainty and complexity in such large-scale systems. In this thesis frameworks are developed to assess 1) the productivity during algae culti...

  15. Scenario studies for algae production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slegers, P.M.

    2014-01-01

    Microalgae are a promising biomass for the biobased economy to produce food, feed, fuel, chemicals and materials. So far, large-scale production of algae is limited and as a result estimates on the performance of such large systems are scarce. There is a need to estimate large-scale biomass

  16. Importance of the gas phase role to the prediction of energetic material behavior: An experimental study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, A.N.; Son, S.F.; Asay, B.W.; Sander, R.K.

    2005-01-01

    Various thermal (radiative, conductive, and convective) initiation experiments are performed to demonstrate the importance of the gas phase role in combustion modeling of energetic materials (EM). A previously published condensed phase model that includes a predicted critical irradiance above which ignition is not possible is compared to experimental laser ignition results for octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (HMX) and 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT). Experimental results conflict with the predicted critical irradiance concept. The failure of the model is believed to result from a misconception about the role of the gas phase in the ignition process of energetic materials. The model assumes that ignition occurs at the surface and that evolution of gases inhibits ignition. High speed video of laser ignition, oven cook-off and hot wire ignition experiments captures the ignition of HMX and TNT in the gas phase. A laser ignition gap test is performed to further evaluate the effect of gas phase laser absorption and gas phase disruption on the ignition process. Results indicate that gas phase absorption of the laser energy is probably not the primary factor governing the gas phase ignition observations. It is discovered that a critical gap between an HMX pellet and a salt window of 6 mm±0.4 mm exists below which ignition by CO 2 laser is not possible at the tested irradiances of 29 W/cm 2 and 38 W/cm 2 for HMX ignition. These observations demonstrate that a significant disruption of the gas phase, in certain scenarios, will inhibit ignition, independent of any condensed phase processes. These results underscore the importance of gas phase processes and illustrate that conditions can exist where simple condensed phase models are inadequate to accurately predict the behavior of energetic materials

  17. Importance of the gas phase role to the prediction of energetic material behavior: An experimental study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, A. N.; Son, S. F.; Asay, B. W.; Sander, R. K.

    2005-03-01

    Various thermal (radiative, conductive, and convective) initiation experiments are performed to demonstrate the importance of the gas phase role in combustion modeling of energetic materials (EM). A previously published condensed phase model that includes a predicted critical irradiance above which ignition is not possible is compared to experimental laser ignition results for octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (HMX) and 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT). Experimental results conflict with the predicted critical irradiance concept. The failure of the model is believed to result from a misconception about the role of the gas phase in the ignition process of energetic materials. The model assumes that ignition occurs at the surface and that evolution of gases inhibits ignition. High speed video of laser ignition, oven cook-off and hot wire ignition experiments captures the ignition of HMX and TNT in the gas phase. A laser ignition gap test is performed to further evaluate the effect of gas phase laser absorption and gas phase disruption on the ignition process. Results indicate that gas phase absorption of the laser energy is probably not the primary factor governing the gas phase ignition observations. It is discovered that a critical gap between an HMX pellet and a salt window of 6mm±0.4mm exists below which ignition by CO2 laser is not possible at the tested irradiances of 29W /cm2 and 38W/cm2 for HMX ignition. These observations demonstrate that a significant disruption of the gas phase, in certain scenarios, will inhibit ignition, independent of any condensed phase processes. These results underscore the importance of gas phase processes and illustrate that conditions can exist where simple condensed phase models are inadequate to accurately predict the behavior of energetic materials.

  18. [Study on phase correction method of spatial heterodyne spectrometer].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xin-Qiang; Ye, Song; Zhang, Li-Juan; Xiong, Wei

    2013-05-01

    Phase distortion exists in collected interferogram because of a variety of measure reasons when spatial heterodyne spectrometers are used in practice. So an improved phase correction method is presented. The phase curve of interferogram was obtained through Fourier inverse transform to extract single side transform spectrum, based on which, the phase distortions were attained by fitting phase slope, so were the phase correction functions, and the convolution was processed between transform spectrum and phase correction function to implement spectrum phase correction. The method was applied to phase correction of actually measured monochromatic spectrum and emulational water vapor spectrum. Experimental results show that the low-frequency false signals in monochromatic spectrum fringe would be eliminated effectively to increase the periodicity and the symmetry of interferogram, in addition when the continuous spectrum imposed phase error was corrected, the standard deviation between it and the original spectrum would be reduced form 0.47 to 0.20, and thus the accuracy of spectrum could be improved.

  19. Thermodynamic and experimental study on phase stability in nanocrystalline alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Wenwu; Song Xiaoyan; Lu Nianduan; Huang Chuan

    2010-01-01

    Nanocrystalline alloys exhibit apparently different phase transformation characteristics in comparison to the conventional polycrystalline alloys. The special phase stability and phase transformation behavior, as well as the essential mechanisms of the nanocrystalline alloys, were described quantitatively in a nanothermodynamic point of view. By introducing the relationship between the excess volume at the grain boundary and the nanograin size, the Gibbs free energy was determined distinctly as a function of temperature and the nanograin size. Accordingly, the grain-size-dependence of the phase stability and phase transformation characteristics of the nanocrystalline alloy were calculated systematically, and the correlations between the phase constitution, the phase transformation temperature and the critical nanograin size were predicted. A series of experiments was performed to investigate the phase transformations at room temperature and high temperatures using the nanocrystalline Sm 2 Co 17 alloy as an example. The phase constitution and phase transformation sequence found in nanocrystalline Sm 2 Co 17 alloys with various grain-size levels agree well with the calculations by the nanothermodynamic model.

  20. A phase-field and electron microscopy study of phase separation in Fe-Cr alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hedstroem, Peter, E-mail: pheds@kth.se [Materials Science and Engineering, KTH (Royal Institute of Technology), SE-100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Baghsheikhi, Saeed [Materials Science and Engineering, KTH (Royal Institute of Technology), SE-100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Liu, Ping [Sandvik Materials Technology, R and D Centre, SE-81181 Sandviken (Sweden); Odqvist, Joakim [Materials Science and Engineering, KTH (Royal Institute of Technology), SE-100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Sandvik Materials Technology, R and D Centre, SE-81181 Sandviken (Sweden)

    2012-02-01

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Experimental characterization and Phase-field modeling of phase separation in Fe-Cr. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Transition from particle-like to spinodal-like structure observed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Structural evolution generates increased hardness. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Results in agreement with recent thermodynamic description. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Quantitative kinetic modeling must include thermal noise and improved kinetic data. - Abstract: Phase separation in the binary Fe-Cr system, the basis for the entire stainless steel family, is considered responsible for the low temperature embrittlement in ferritic, martensitic and duplex stainless steels. These steels are often used in load-bearing applications with considerable service time at elevated temperature. Thus, understanding the effect of microstructure on mechanical properties and predicting dynamics of phase separation are key issues. In the present work, experimental evaluation of structure and mechanical properties in binary Fe-Cr alloys as well as phase-field modeling, using a new thermodynamic description of Fe-Cr, is conducted. A significant hardening evolution with time is found for alloys aged between 400 and 550 Degree-Sign C, and it can be attributed to phase separation. The decomposed structure changed with increasing Cr content at 500 Degree-Sign C, with a more particle-like structure at 25 wt% Cr and a more spinodal-like structure at 30 wt% Cr. The observed transition of structure agrees with the thermodynamically predicted spinodal, although the transition is expected to be gradual. The phase-field simulations qualitatively agree with experiments. However, to enable accurate quantitative predictions, the diffusional mobilities must be evaluated further and thermal fluctuations as well as 3D diffusion fields must be properly accounted for.

  1. Zambia country study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1999-09-01

    The Zambia Country Study, which was part of the Danida-funded project Climate Change Mitigation in Southern Africa: Phase 2, aimed at methodological development, national mitigation analysis and institutional capacity building in Zambia. The study comprised the following five elements: Comprehensive evaluation of national social and economic development framework for climate change; Baseline scenario(s) projection(s); Mitigation scenario(s) projection(s); Macro-economic assessment; Implementation Issues. (au) 17 refs.

  2. CMS FPix sensor study for phase I upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Yi, Kai

    2015-01-01

    The next incarnation of the CMS forward pixel detector, to be installed at the extended year end technical stop 2016-17, will need to survive an integrated luminosity of 300\\,fb$^{-1}$, with the inner radius of the active region of the disks decreasing from 6 to 4.5\\,cm. The number of disks on each side will increase from two to three. Based on the Run I experience and irradiation studies, the Phase I forward pixel detector sensors will again be n$^+$-in-n diffusion oxygenated float zone, with parameters similar to those in the present run. Results from the quality assurance probing of the first batches of sensor wafers are described. The leakage current (IV) measurements are particularly impressive with current densities in the range of 6-7\\,nA/cm$^2$ at about twice the full depletion voltage.